ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[shasta]

I just put a buy orderer at 20c for ADY for topping up, if the crash is like last time :D

Your dreaming...try 49c

We have a Lithium ann due out this week...

ADY should hold its own & may be one of the few green stocks...

[seaosh]

Interesting little piece in the Herald on electric bicycles in China. At the moment they run on lead acid batteries, but it seems some models are starting to use Lithium.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10471245

Some of the facts in that article are not 100% accurate though. Motorcycles have been being phased out in parts of China for years, mostly through individual cities banning new vehicle registrations for this class of vehicle. The electric bicycles didn't need a registration so they quickly filled the gap.

Contradicting what the article says, the move away from motorcycles had zero to do with rising fuel costs. Motorcycle bans were generally justified as an anti-pollution and anti-crime measure (i.e. to stop bag snatching etc. by motorcyclists). The real reason though had more to do with stimulating the domestic automotive industry by encouraging those who could afford it to buy cars. Some mayors also wanted to make their cities look 'tidy' and 'developed', with traffic flowing in a way that would benefit car owners. They were trying to avoid the more Taiwanese style city where motorized scooters rule the streets and even the well-off ride them during peak times to avoid the congestion.

[Ttops]

Your dreaming...try 49c

We have a Lithium ann due out this week...

ADY should hold its own & may be one of the few green stocks...

ADY has been much more volatile than the Dow in the past so was hoping for low 40's at least. :confused: Maybe not Monday but Tuesday if the Dow keeps falling.

[shasta]

ADY has been much more volatile than the Dow in the past so was hoping for low 40's at least. :confused: Maybe not Monday but Tuesday if the Dow keeps falling.

If ADY drops in early trading i'll dump my GOLD stock LST (my biggest %holding) & buy ADY.

I don't expect this will occur.

For those of you foolish to sell out on opening, watch the SP at the end of the day, & you'll be kicking yourself.:eek:

[seaosh]

Can't see it closing below 45 cents again.

Below 50 cents intraday seems likely though.

[shasta]

Can't see it closing below 45 cents again.

Below 50 cents intraday seems likely though.

Bit of a double whammy for me today...

I picked the ASX drop (i said 170 points & it nearly got there) & said ADY would hold up & it has thus far.

ADY briefly touched 49.5c before quickly rebounding to 51 - 51.5c

If the 13th biggest one day drop in DOW history doesnt pull ADY sub 50c, THEN NOTHING WILL.:cool:

Say bye bye to cheap shares folks as the support level seems to have crept to around 50c.

Am expecting a strong finish in anticipation of the Lithium ann due anytime.

[Ttops]

Bit of a double whammy for me today...

I picked the ASX drop (i said 170 points & it nearly got there) & said ADY would hold up & it has thus far.

ADY briefly touched 49.5c before quickly rebounding to 51 - 51.5c

If the 13th biggest one day drop in DOW history doesnt pull ADY sub 50c, THEN NOTHING WILL.:cool:

Say bye bye to cheap shares folks as the support level seems to have crept to around 50c.

Am expecting a strong finish in anticipation of the Lithium ann due anytime.
Shasta. What's likely in the ann? Will it be just updating us on progress so not very positive. Dropped at the end but didn't top up. Decided to be a bit patient and see what the next day or two bring. Insiders would have been buying up if the ann was really positive and it hit resistance at 52?

[shasta]

Shasta. What's likely in the ann? Will it be just updating us on progress so not very positive. Dropped at the end but didn't top up. Decided to be a bit patient and see what the next day or two bring. Insiders would have been buying up if the ann was really positive and it hit resistance at 52?

I expected the close to be weak but it all but fell apart!

Didnt buy anymore ADY either, bought 2 more oilers:cool:

The Lithium ann is meant to be about the construction of the pilot plant solar ponds & the finalisation of the "equity document" for interested parties, ie the Lithium forward sales

I believe this ann will seriously re-rate ADY as it will finally give us the figures to firm up valuations of the Lithium business.

There are also further JORC Iron Ore results to be announced.

[Scuffer]

The dow dips an its a good time to get into stocks like ADY they seem to pop back easily enough, the demand for resources is still there no matter what happens in doodle land.

[Viking]

Alert!!
Sub 50 arrived!

[shasta]

Alert!!
Sub 50 arrived!

I dont mind if it goes back to 30c personally, whats your hurry?

Lithium wont be at full production until late 2008.

Sit back & enjoy the Iron Ore being ramped up at close to "market prices", as they shore up all of there Iron Ore deposits in Chile.

[Viking]

Hi Shasta,
Maybe I should do something similar to a sales pitch~

Sub-50, Sub-50~ get it quick, don't miss the boat~ :D :D

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,
Maybe I should do something similar to a sales pitch~

Sub-50, Sub-50~ get it quick, don't miss the boat~ :D :D

Lets downramp the dog haha :D:D:D

Jokes...:p

[JackSprat]

Lets downramp the dog haha :D:D:D

Jokes...:p

Well, that worked well. Looks like you down ramped this forum also :mad:

[shasta]

Well, that worked well. Looks like you down ramped this forum also :mad:

Calm down people, just cos PT hasnt made an ann in 2 days, nothing to fear...

There is a loooooooonnnnnnnggggggggggg time before the company splits, so use the time wisely to accummulate as many ADY as you can...

Rincon Lithium will go nuts when listed....

I'm going to hold both, as the Lithium potential has stolen the limelight from a nice Iron Ore operation thats being ramped up to max capacity!

Anything sub 50c is at a HUGE discount to "intrinsic value", so the longer it stays below it the more i'll end up with...

[seaosh]

Yes, wondering about getting some more myself.

I may drop GDM to do it. Maybe. . .

[shasta]

Yes, wondering about getting some more myself.

I may drop GDM to do it. Maybe. . .

Depends on when you see Cairns Hill being announced i guess?

I'd be inclined to drop it for ADY, but GDM maybe even outperformed ADY from here til the end of the year?

You could dump your Uran?

I have so many "targets" lining up to buy, i doubt ill be back in GDM this year, if at all...

ADY has the potential to double just prior to the split & thats what keeps me in it.

ADY is on ACCUMMULATE for me...

[seaosh]

Depends on when you see Cairns Hill being announced i guess?

I'd be inclined to drop it for ADY, but GDM maybe even outperformed ADY from here til the end of the year?

You could dump your Uran?

I have so many "targets" lining up to buy, i doubt ill be back in GDM this year, if at all...

ADY has the potential to double just prior to the split & thats what keeps me in it.

ADY is on ACCUMMULATE for me...

I'm not dumping Uran. I'm looking on Uran as a bit of a lottery ticket. It's only 10% of my portfolio - OK used to be 10%, but now less than 10%! I may eventually regret not dumping Uran but I'm not dumping while there is still so much potential on the table. I'd be kicking myself if they came through with the goods.

GDM was something I got into hoping we'd shortly see the Cairns Hill announcement, and I figured with it's various stock holdings there was not much downside even if the announcement didn't come through. Unfortunately I got a bit over enthusiastic when buying and overpaid. The latest announcements on the Chinese situation didn't sound particularly encouraging. Seemed to be no progress from a few months back. Of course it could come through any day. . . You never know.

ADY has been by far my best stock of the year. I got in at 19 cents, out at 50 and 40 cents, then back in at 23, out at 50, and back in at 45. It's still got potential to do more so I'm tempted at sub 50 cents. Could be tempting fate a bit though. It's already my second biggest holding now.

I am also looking at picking up a couple more oilers and may do that instead of ADY.

[JackSprat]

The September quarterly report is out and all looks good. The JORC shows 84 million tons of iron ore ready to be dug out. Rincon Lithium Ltd is all go with the pilot plant beginning operations Dec 19th; the demerger to occur early 2008. Lead and zinc have been found in the Bulman area.

That's 3 positives.
The States devalued 1/4% further.
The DOW is rocketing.

ADY sp drops?

What did I miss?? :confused:

[Viking]

My question exactly~ "What did we missed?"

[seaosh]

Couldn't it just be a case of a lot of hot money having recently flooded into ADY and now getting impatient and looking elsewhere?

[alexroseinnes]

Couldn't it just be a case of a lot of hot money having recently flooded into ADY and now getting impatient and looking elsewhere?

I think you are spot on there. there is some very impatient, speculative money in the market right now.

I'd rather be in than out - have been caught out of ADY too many times when trying to trade it. Got in at 20c, out at 25, in again at 36, out in the 40s etc. Missed many a big rise.

[Damo79]

I've made good money on ADY this year. In fact, by far, my best ever trades. Have been out for a month or so (I forget), but will monitor and research post split. For me, it's simply uncertainty over how the split will pan out. I'm interested in the lithium story, not the iron ore particularly. And I don't want to hold a share when I don't know some basic facts about the company. So after the split is sorted, I'll be looking at what the market cap of the lithium venture company ends up as, what sort of funding they have access to etc. and will then decide whether I still "love" the company at whatever share price it's at.

Thought that might give you an example of a reason why some people are obviously sellers.

Cheers
Damo

[alexroseinnes]

I've made good money on ADY this year. In fact, by far, my best ever trades. Have been out for a month or so (I forget), but will monitor and research post split. For me, it's simply uncertainty over how the split will pan out. I'm interested in the lithium story, not the iron ore particularly. And I don't want to hold a share when I don't know some basic facts about the company. So after the split is sorted, I'll be looking at what the market cap of the lithium venture company ends up as, what sort of funding they have access to etc. and will then decide whether I still "love" the company at whatever share price it's at.

Thought that might give you an example of a reason why some people are obviously sellers.

Cheers
Damo


Damo,

You are right, but I think there is also an impatience/lack of big announcements selling effect.

The volume has dropped right off unfortunately, but I will be a buyer if it falls through 46c.

[OutToLunch]

I can't help but think the market has failed to appreciate the value of ADY post-split. At the moment the share price is only reflecting partial valuations of both the Li and Fe sides -- each side will be valued higher when taken independently of the other once they are split. I did some very rough numbers a couple of weeks ago, trying to be conservative along the way, and arrived at the equivalent of $1.50 per present-day ADY share. The proviso being that this is based on Fe at 7.2mpta and Li at 17ktpa plus KCl at full production also, which is the story for 2009. However even if we cut it all in half for a 'present' value we're still well up on the current price, and those who are happy to wait until this time next year (I will probably be still holding then) stand to be very nicely rewarded.

In the meantime yes we're probably seeing the 'instant gratification' crowd not wanting to hang around while the next hot stock is going off, so ADY slips back on low volumes. We've seen this happen several times before, and each time it's ended with a sudden leap upwards... maybe next week.... :):D

[alexroseinnes]

I can't help but think the market has failed to appreciate the value of ADY post-split. At the moment the share price is only reflecting partial valuations of both the Li and Fe sides -- each side will be valued higher when taken independently of the other once they are split. I did some very rough numbers a couple of weeks ago, trying to be conservative along the way, and arrived at the equivalent of $1.50 per present-day ADY share. The proviso being that this is based on Fe at 7.2mpta and Li at 17ktpa plus KCl at full production also, which is the story for 2009. However even if we cut it all in half for a 'present' value we're still well up on the current price, and those who are happy to wait until this time next year (I will probably be still holding then) stand to be very nicely rewarded.

In the meantime yes we're probably seeing the 'instant gratification' crowd not wanting to hang around while the next hot stock is going off, so ADY slips back on low volumes. We've seen this happen several times before, and each time it's ended with a sudden leap upwards... maybe next week.... :):D

With ANU, RUS, BLR, URA etc. all going off, it is easy to see where all the instant gratification money is.

[seaosh]

Turnover of only $88k in URA versus $4mil for ADY? I don't think any money has flowed from ADY into URA today.

[STRAT]

I can't help but think the market has failed to appreciate the value of ADY post-split. Yup and no complaints here :D

[shasta]

Yup and no complaints here :D

ADY went up 200%+ (from 21c - 67c) in just 6 weeks & since that time we have seen it slide & then surge back & forth.

I would imagine some have stayed in awaiting the Lithium valuation, & have taken profits knowing they have time to re-enter down the track.

Nothing to worry about

[STRAT]

ADY went up 200%+ (from 21c - 67c) in just 6 weeks & since that time we have seen it slide & then surge back & forth.

I would imagine some have stayed in awaiting the Lithium valuation, & have taken profits knowing they have time to re-enter down the track.

Nothing to worry aboutFor various reasons Im unable to re entre right now. I appreciate yall waiting for me :D:D:D

[Ttops]

Most indicators indicate a short term down trend. I'm not surprised at all. The faithful need some boosting Shasta but quite a few of us will not be unhappy if it goes down some more.

[shasta]

Most indicators indicate a short term down trend. I'm not surprised at all. The faithful need some boosting Shasta but quite a few of us will not be unhappy if it goes down some more.

Remember ADY languished below 20c for years!

Lets not get too greedy, plenty left for those who are patient!

[OutToLunch]

There's little to worry about, nor am I worrying if it slips back a bit. Volumes are low so it's only really a lack of interest, not a sign of trouble. I'm heading away next week, so watch her fly then. I've done it several times before! :cool::cool::cool:

[Hawke]

ADY -it goes down.....traders are exposed and I would not be keen to hold with the DOW looking like sliding again on Friday.
I do like ADY and will get some more at 30c.

Hawke.

[spruik]

ADY -it goes down.....traders are exposed and I would not be keen to hold with the DOW looking like sliding again on Friday.
I do like ADY and will get some more at 30c.

Hawke.

At that price me too. Sold some yesterday for $0.48 as the buyers were being supplied fast, and bought back in this morning.

[Ttops]

ADY -it goes down.....traders are exposed and I would not be keen to hold with the DOW looking like sliding again on Friday.
I do like ADY and will get some more at 30c.

Hawke.
You and I will be very lucky if it does retreat that far and take some patience. Would have to be spooked by war or something that takes out all but the long term investors. Could happen but not something to bet on. High 30's to low 40's more likely given a lack of anns and some continuing bad news. Hope it takes out the short term traders anyway. ;)

[stevo1]

anybody got any idea significance of merrill lynch holding 8.5% of ady? (loan facility) etc? bought on market 9mill 37 cents,8.9 mill at 52 cents, rest 61 mill 54/55 cents total 78.9 mill

[tricha]

anybody got any idea significance of merrill lynch holding 8.5% of ady? (loan facility) etc? bought on market 9mill 37 cents,8.9 mill at 52 cents, rest 61 mill 54/55 cents total 78.9 mill

Reason 1 - Because ADY is cheap and come share split date, do not be late, It should be like ARU when they spun off Nupower.

Reason 2 - Energy is king, no energy = no water, no food, no transportation, no hot shower =ouch, so secure your energy now.

Because everyone else is doing it;)

ENERGY


US$307 MILLION MOU
South Korea’s millions for Forsys’ Namibia uranium project

Korea Electric Power Corporation is the latest company after a slice of Namibia’s yellowcake after signing a US$307 million MoU with Forsys Metals Corp., which is advancing the Valencia uranium project in the country.
Author: Rodrick Mukumbira
Posted: Friday , 02 Nov 2007

[tricha]

Upstart Car Battery Maker High on Hybrids
Dr. Klaus Brandt, new CEO of Lithium Technology, discusses his plans for a new environmentally friendly car battery.
Sat Sep 8 03:39:14 GMT+0800 2007 -- Gregg Greenberg
Companies: JCI (http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/quote/JCI) | LTHU.PK (http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/quote/LTHU.PK)


http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=1373_10358889&channel=Exec+Interviews&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#10358889

[shasta]

anybody got any idea significance of merrill lynch holding 8.5% of ady? (loan facility) etc? bought on market 9mill 37 cents,8.9 mill at 52 cents, rest 61 mill 54/55 cents total 78.9 mill

Steveo1

The fact Merrill Lynch saw fit to buy 78m shares in ADY shows they have some institutional investors looking at it now.

I can only see this as a positive & would now suspect other institutional investors may also want in (before the anticipated SP re-rating prior to the ADY de-merger)

Expect a strong day on large volume tomorrow in ADY, with a close 50c+

Remove your sell orders, or at least push them out.

Personally i wouldnt be selling ADY & see it as a strong buy!

[spruik]

Steveo1

The fact Merrill Lynch saw fit to buy 78m shares in ADY shows they have some institutional investors looking at it now.

I can only see this as a positive & would now suspect other institutional investors may also want in (before the anticipated SP re-rating prior to the ADY de-merger)

Expect a strong day on large volume tomorrow in ADY, with a close 50c+

Remove your sell orders, or at least push them out.

Personally i wouldnt be selling ADY & see it as a strong buy!

Reading the ADY ann it says those shares are security against loans. On one hand it suggests they consider them good anough as collateral, on the other hand if the borrower defaults they will have to dispose of them.

I am unsure if shares accepted as security need to be actually transferred and registered. Can anyone enlighten me?

[shasta]

Reading the ADY ann it says those shares are security against loans. On one hand it suggests they consider them good anough as collateral, on the other hand if the borrower defaults they will have to dispose of them.

I am unsure if shares accepted as security need to be actually transferred and registered. Can anyone enlighten me?

My own shares are effectively owned by ASB Nominees as i use a margin lending a/c

Re-read it again, Merrill Lynch owns them alright.

I would imagine there "subsidiaries" were buying them & this is the consolidation.

However they did it, its ML on the share register.

PT has explained this on another forum

[stevo1]

thanks Shasta much better to have Merrill lynch as stakeholders than loan facility .market judgement soon to be reflected in shareprice.what i have noticed recently is inquiry from north American investors into lithium producers.not really that many lithium producers and at these prices ady still looks attractive.IMO. perhaps m/l could bundle these and sell to recover losses from subprime debacle (lol)

[shasta]

thanks Shasta much better to have Merrill lynch as stakeholders than loan facility .market judgement soon to be reflected in shareprice.what i have noticed recently is inquiry from north American investors into lithium producers.not really that many lithium producers and at these prices ady still looks attractive.IMO. perhaps m/l could bundle these and sell to recover losses from subprime debacle (lol)

I thought ADY & the ASX overall would have been a bit more robust today...

If the DOW holds its own overnight, we should see a recovery tomorrow!

Nice investor presentation out (remember ADY anns take a few days to circulate & the SP lags)

We did well today considering the general market sentiment.

Sub 50c buying opportunities shouldn't be around much longer :eek:

[Ttops]

I thought ADY & the ASX overall would have been a bit more robust today...

If the DOW holds its own overnight, we should see a recovery tomorrow!

Nice investor presentation out (remember ADY anns take a few days to circulate & the SP lags)

We did well today considering the general market sentiment.

Sub 50c buying opportunities shouldn't be around much longer :eek:
Too many opps to buy at close to 46 means imho this one requires some really pos news to push through 50+ Demand has been satiated. Closer to Jan maybe?

[shasta]

Too many opps to buy at close to 46 means imho this one requires some really pos news to push through 50+ Demand has been satiated. Closer to Jan maybe?

PT has mentioned another US based institutional investor has bought into ADY, so im 100% sure of which direction shes heading...:D

[Ttops]

PT has mentioned another US based institutional investor has bought into ADY, so im 100% sure of which direction shes heading...:D
Directionless today on miniscule volume. I hope its not Citigroup anyway. :o Could make ADY look sub-prime. I'm sure you are ultimately correct. Just a matter of time.

[Ttops]

Shasta will be pleased. 50+ How does he do it? Will check back in two weeks.

[spruik]

There's little to worry about, nor am I worrying if it slips back a bit. Volumes are low so it's only really a lack of interest, not a sign of trouble. I'm heading away next week, so watch her fly then. I've done it several times before! :cool::cool::cool:

OTL is still away, that's why ADY is up. If OTL goes away more often, ADY will rise higher.

[stevo1]

by the look of volume and sp ann shortly?perhaps

[shasta]

Shasta will be pleased. 50+ How does he do it? Will check back in two weeks.

:D:D:D <<<<dis is me

This is ADY ready to fly :eek:

[Tech Step]

Agreed shasta.

ADY has finally broken out of the downward wedge and on good volume to boot :)

I am expecting ADY to test new highs soon.

all aboard, toot toot!

[OutToLunch]

OTL is still away, that's why ADY is up. If OTL goes away more often, ADY will rise higher.

Sorry guys, turns out I'm still here. Plans to go away were scuttled by a nasty lergy that got me on Sunday -- so I can't take any credit for ADY's rise this week! Down she goes... :eek:

[STRAT]

Down she goes... :eek:With the amount of day traders playing ADY and the state of the DOW this morning I would say you are dead right there OTL but I dont think you should be taking the credit/blame ;)

[OutToLunch]

No worries. I think that odd coincidence of ADY taking off whenever I hit the road has long ago passed anyway. Shame really -- it was kinda nice to be paid to bugger off. :p

Actually one thing about the upcoming consolidation (maybe that's what it is aimed at) is that traders won't be all over ADY/RLL like they are at the moment. That can only be a good thing!

Don't forget -- AGM starts today 12pm Noo Zild time -- I think a few posters on TopStocks and/or Hotcopper were thinking of going and might post their notes later on. The presentation/MD speech will make interesting reading too.

[STRAT]

I am looking to re enter ADY and think I have a good chance of getting in today around 45-46 :eek:;):cool:

[STRAT]

Actually one thing about the upcoming consolidation (maybe that's what it is aimed at) is that traders won't be all over ADY/RLL like they are at the moment. That can only be a good thing!
Not sure I entirely agree. Day Traders keep a stock liquid and on the radar which aint all bad

[Hawke]

Make that buy price 42c today and Im in too.

This one plummetted 20c in the last vacuumed down swing- so take care folks!

Hawke.

[OutToLunch]

Not sure I entirely agree. Day Traders keep a stock liquid and on the radar which aint all bad

True -- though they also induce distorted price swings that don't necessarily have anything to to with real value. However long terms that doesn't really matter I guess.

AGM presentation out -- I'm off for a read. Shame that the markets are all turning turtle, just as ADY shifts gears. :(

[shasta]

True -- though they also induce distorted price swings that don't necessarily have anything to to with real value. However long terms that doesn't really matter I guess.

AGM presentation out -- I'm off for a read. Shame that the markets are all turning turtle, just as ADY shifts gears. :(

ADY held up ok on the back of the AGM presentation...

Pity the DOW went & s*** itself overnight...

Who ever was talking about 42c get real...

46c would be a smart buy price as ADY will bounce hard on 45c.

The DOW could shed 5% overnight & ADY wont go below 45c!

[Ttops]

ADY held up ok on the back of the AGM presentation...

Pity the DOW went & s*** itself overnight...

Who ever was talking about 42c get real...

46c would be a smart buy price as ADY will bounce hard on 45c.

The DOW could shed 5% overnight & ADY wont go below 45c!
Shasta Todays fall on the Dow 2.6% caused todays fall in ADY 4% Why wouldn't a 5% drop tomorrow engender even more fear? 45c is only 6% away. Wouldn't 43c be possible? My experience says ADY held up extremely well but two drops on successive days would break the Dow's confidence and cause some serious s*** :(

[spruik]

Guess you never know with these scary people around:

Dow Breaks Key Support Level

By Colin Twiggs
November 8, 2007 12:00 a.m. ET (4:00 p.m. AET)


Or this one:

ALERT - MARKET COLLAPSE
The Chartist

They are soliciting subscriptions... :(

[Viking]

Blood everywhere~ ShangHai lost 4.85&#37;, Nikei lost 3%...etc

It seems DAX is recovering from early losses~ Duetsch Telekom, Siemens, Adais all up about 2% leading the charge and FTSE so far only loss 0.5%
Hopefully that would transfer some good support to ASX tomorrow~

[STRAT]

My lot faired pretty well today. Much better than I expected. MHL was actually in the blue, up 2.6&#37;. but my gut is telling me there is more of the same coming this month so I lowered my bid on ADY which wasnt filled. US bandaids are coming un stuck and US CPI and PPI figures out in a week I suspect will not be pretty. I think there will be good buying later this month.

[Viking]

Thanks for that Strat~ I will keep knee close eye on it :)

[STRAT]

Thanks for that Strat~ I will keep knee close eye on it :)Just remember these are the ramblings of a newbie and should be taken with the usual sack of salt ;)

[Viking]

hehe~ thanks for the reminder~ will keep that in mind too~ :)

[Viking]

I wonder if ADY could be a target for takeover?
Before or After the split

[shasta]

I wonder if ADY could be a target for takeover?
Before or After the split

The penny has dropped on ADY...

Well done Viking...

ADY finishes the week on 50c = not bad considering!

[Ttops]

The penny has dropped on ADY...

Well done Viking...

ADY finishes the week on 50c = not bad considering!
Quite amazing. The Dow goes down and ADY is up 4% So yesterday was an overcorrection. I see what you mean now. :o

[shasta]

Quite amazing. The Dow goes down and ADY is up 4% So yesterday was an overcorrection. I see what you mean now. :o

Ive had ADY on watch for many months until it swung in the 19 - 21c range, the bollinger bands were squeezed, volume building, OBV, RSI everything in its favour i buy in at 21c & in 6 weeks it hits 67c...

I feel i know ADY & its movements fairly well now...

At least good enough not to trade it anymore!

[ronthepom]

Ive had ADY on watch for many months until it swung in the 19 - 21c range, the bollinger bands were squeezed, volume building, OBV, RSI everything in its favour i buy in at 21c & in 6 weeks it hits 67c...

I feel i know ADY & its movements fairly well now...

At least good enough not to trade it anymore!
I bought ady at 26.5 shasta, seen it go to 67c mark. Whats your view on M P O they have just done a 5 for 1 share adjustment, i am holding a heap of these, seem to be well diversified.

[shasta]

I bought ady at 26.5 shasta, seen it go to 67c mark. Whats your view on M P O they have just done a 5 for 1 share adjustment, i am holding a heap of these, seem to be well diversified.

Ron forget MPO, far better O&G plays out there, why wouldnt you be buying more ADY? (More ADY = more RLL :D:D:D)

I'm looking to offload NZO this week & i already have my next target "earmarked", & will likely top up ADY sub 50c as well.

[ronthepom]

Ron forget MPO, far better O&G plays out there, why wouldnt you be buying more ADY? (More ADY = more RLL :D:D:D)

I'm looking to offload NZO this week & i already have my next target "earmarked", & will likely top up ADY sub 50c as well.
Shasta, have been buying ADY but got the ' OIL' excuse the pun from my son inlaw in Perth whose in the industry also gave me SHG @ 44C--OEL @18.5 but i was looking at them before.Did'nt buy URA in the end.

[Hawke]

ASX down 1.3% and ADY down 7%.

Cant wait to get those Cheap ADY's- just lowered my buy below 42c....
USA Dow futures looking like another Dunking is in order -perhaps below 13000?

Hawke.

[STRAT]

ASX down 1.3% and ADY down 7%.

Cant wait to get those Cheap ADY's- just lowered my buy below 42c....
USA Dow futures looking like another Dunking is in order -perhaps below 13000?

Hawke.I re entered half an hour ago at 46.5. Good luck Hawk you just might make it in at that level this week. I will add if it gets down there. Of course Shasta may not agree with me on your chances there mate :D

[spruik]

I re entered half an hour ago at 46.5. Good luck Hawk you just might make it in at that level this week. I will add if it gets down there. Of course Shasta may not agree with me on your chances there mate :D

Good move Strat. If the Dow is flat or a bit up tonight we should see a good bounce. Would have liked to see Hawk getting in today also.

If not, will be adding to stocks holding long term (GPT looks cheap right now).

[shasta]

I re entered half an hour ago at 46.5. Good luck Hawk you just might make it in at that level this week. I will add if it gets down there. Of course Shasta may not agree with me on your chances there mate :D

Last page i said ADY would be smart buying at 46c...:eek:

Right now, ive lighten some URA & am looking to exit all my NZO & need to find a new home for it...come in spinner, some cheap ADY would be nice:D

BOW run hard today, so i missed that spike (i couldnt get to put a buy in first thing, not happy :mad:).

If the DOW is unwell ADY may drop below 40c :eek:

I'll be watching & waiting tomorrow, i shan't miss the next party!

[Hawke]

Asian markets down by large amounts on HSBC SubP' losses......the contagion continues......cant see the Dow closing up.

Hawke......38c ADY Buy order in.

[shasta]

Asian markets down by large amounts on HSBC SubP' losses......the contagion continues......cant see the Dow closing up.

Hawke......38c ADY Buy order in.

Who cares if the Hang Seng or DOW drops, there is no co-relation with ADY, it's just excessive fear or greed, lets capitalise on it!

ADY is so closely linked with the $US400b Sub prime problem, it will drop back below 30c LOL

Classic herd mentality, bring on the big growly bears....:D

For all the "Chicken Licken" types all cashed up, heres one for ya...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIxzwJi0egZc&refer=home

[spruik]

Dow down by 90 in the last half hour, just like a couple of days ago. No doubt Shasta it will be dragged to sub 30c on the basis of it being "so closely linked with the $US400b Sub prime problem" :)

Seriously, seems that generally everyone knows now what there is to know, and what's in store over the next few months.

What kind of news could set it on fire again?

[shasta]

Dow down by 90 in the last half hour, just like a couple of days ago. No doubt Shasta it will be dragged to sub 30c on the basis of it being "so closely linked with the $US400b Sub prime problem" :)

Seriously, seems that generally everyone knows now what there is to know, and what's in store over the next few months.

What kind of news could set it on fire again?

Plenty more Iron Ore JORC anns to come, remember we have more IO than we have permits to mine!

So far all of the Iron Ore resources have been upgraded in both size & grade, the reason why i want to stay in ADY post split.

Seems until we get another major upgrade of IO resource we are range bound & may bounce between 45 - 50c (+/- 2c) for a while.

Accummulation time, the big boys are, just ask Phillip Thomas!

[JackSprat]

So that my head gets around this:

When ADY merges 10,000 shares are split by 3.4 giving 2800. Then we get 1:1 for the number we hold, giving 2800 in the new lithium company.
2800 IO shares
2800 Li shares
5600 total which will be around $A1.50 each. = $A8400+15% to nz $ = 10k+-

Have I got this right? Anyone mind telling me?

[shasta]

So that my head gets around this:

When ADY merges 10,000 shares are split by 3.4 giving 2800. Then we get 1:1 for the number we hold, giving 2800 in the new lithium company.
2800 IO shares
2800 Li shares
5600 total which will be around $A1.50 each. = $A8400+15% to nz $ = 10k+-

Have I got this right? Anyone mind telling me?

I havent seen any figures to suggest $1.50 per share at that time.

We will know that down the track.

What we do know is that RLL arent raising any equity, so buying ADY ensures your allocation.

I do expect ADY to be travelling around $1 pre split, however ADY will likely drop afterwards, with RLL running on!

[Huang Chung]

Saw Shasta's last post and thought I'd do a little bit of googling to see if I could find anything on Li production. This article caught my eye. It's a bit dated, but you might find it of interest none the less.

http://www.azom.com/details.asp?newsID=7648

Cheers.

[JackSprat]

Thanks for that guys. My $A1.50 estimate was from a previous post but the good news is that Li is a limited resource which means if you've got some you're doing okay.
Cheers

[Huang Chung]

This William Tahil seems to suggest that Li batteries can at best be only an interim solution...that because of the limited supply of Li, the future may be sodium nickel chloride or zinc-air. I'm not quite sure how this ties in with ADY's '200 years of supply'......

Has ADY just solved the forecast supply problem? I don't quite think so, so what am I missing??

[shasta]

Thanks for that guys. My $A1.50 estimate was from a previous post but the good news is that Li is a limited resource which means if you've got some you're doing okay.
Cheers

A little birdie told me we have a few years worth...:D

[OutToLunch]

So that my head gets around this:

When ADY merges 10,000 shares are split by 3.4 giving 2800. Then we get 1:1 for the number we hold, giving 2800 in the new lithium company.
2800 IO shares
2800 Li shares
5600 total which will be around $A1.50 each. = $A8400+15% to nz $ = 10k+-

Have I got this right? Anyone mind telling me?

G'day Jack,

You will almost certainly see the two new entities (the new incarnation of ADY, and RLL) trading at very different levels post-split, with RLL more than likely trading at a multiple of what ADY will be (depending on how much Pb/Zn they find at their Aussie tenements -- sounds like this could be huge too, though at an early stage of exploration). Back when the demerger was announced I ran some crude numbers to try and get a handle on what this could be worth in terms of a present-day ADY share, and I arrived at about $1.50 even after being very conservative. That, as I mentioned, will comprise the value of two independent (and very different) share prices post-demerger.

Just hang on, & be patient.... Santa's going to be in a generous mood this year. :)

[shasta]

This William Tahil seems to suggest that Li batteries can at best be only an interim solution...that because of the limited supply of Li, the future may be sodium nickel chloride or zinc-air. I'm not quite sure how this ties in with ADY's '200 years of supply'......

Has ADY just solved the forecast supply problem? I don't quite think so, so what am I missing??

Make that 400 years @ the current proposed production rate of 17,000T per annum.

I will guarantee there will be NO supply problems during my lifetime! :D

If RLL falls short by some 100 years, won't be my issue!

[JackSprat]

Thanks OTL, nice to have some comforting figures to look at. My observation of the current sp is that it tends to drop when the rest of the market is not too bad and swing up again when things get a little rougher. A bit perverse but a good sign because it seems people fall back on a reliable stock when everything else gets hit?

[spruik]

Locals arranging the have the lithium plant blessed. How can we go wrong with God on our side? :)

[tricha]

Make that 400 years @ the current proposed production rate of 17,000T per annum.

I will guarantee there will be NO supply problems during my lifetime! :D

If RLL falls short by some 100 years, won't be my issue!

Topped up more today at 48 cents, Like ARU who spun off Nupower.
Admirality's spinoff will make us a fortune and with cars going Lithium something, one of the motoring giants will step in sometime and grab their share, unfortunately if u have not got your share by then, real sad ;)

Lithium the power of the future!

[shasta]

Topped up more today at 48 cents, Like ARU who spun off Nupower.
Admirality's spinoff will make us a fortune and with cars going Lithium something, one of the motoring giants will step in sometime and grab their share, unfortunately if u have not got your share by then, real sad ;)

Lithium the power of the future!

Agree Tricha

Some good support today & should the DOW hold tonight we should see a close above 50c again tomorrow.

RLL to me is like a junior FMG, a one trick pony with a big ass resource.

The current ADY SP is a joke looking forward to what will transpire in 2008/09.

At 48c the market cap is around $A450m, but im picking thats close to what RLL is worth alone sometime late 2008/early 2009.

ADY sat sub 20c for ages & only caught everyones interest when it spiked so quickly, now its settled back into a trading range it seems interest in it has cooled off...:confused:

IMO its a no brainer & early 2008 many will be wondering how they missed this opportunity, when its starring them in the face!

When we get the indicative valuation for RLL, ADY will spike hard again!

We know that Merrill Lynch have bought some 78m shares, & another US institutional investor is buying at present (PT said this!)

Am wanting more ADY to get more RLL.:D

Phillip Thomas is a genius:cool:

Oh, & they have a large Iron Ore stockpile awaiting more JORC resources & an extension to the amount they can mine each year...:eek:

[JackSprat]

And good work by Admin to ann that the pilot plant was unaffected by the earthquake (which was 750 miles away), drawing attention to the progress going on.

[Ttops]

Shasta
I have noted an uncanny correlation between you mentioning that if the Dow holds it may close above 50 and the Dow falling. Small trading range at present. Probably will hold above 46 with such good information for shareholders being regularly presented.

[shasta]

Shasta
I have noted an uncanny correlation between you mentioning that if the Dow holds it may close above 50 and the Dow falling. Small trading range at present. Probably will hold above 46 with such good information for shareholders being regularly presented.

Theres another co-relation, the DOW drops, ADY drops, Shasta buys :D

I pity the fool who sold me some @ av 47c today

Treetops - i have also been stopped out of 3 shares (PSA, THX & AMU) in the last few days, due to not seeing what the DOW did the night before...

Still bought some more cheap ADY, URA & OEL today :D

[shasta]

After sitting on cash for a few days, feeling trigger happy, i topped up some more ADY today at 45.5c (averaging up to 39c now).

Same old formula, have cash, what to buy = ADY!

Hope it stays under 50c for a wee while longer

[spruik]

http://www.verplak.net/cool_upsidedown.gif

[shasta]

http://www.verplak.net/cool_upsidedown.gif

Spruik

With ADY i'm more :D:D:D

Am getting used to this "new" concept called, holding cash...:eek:

Having 3 companies stopped out within 3 days, left me liquid...:cool:

Am going for bigger plays on less companies now, & 3 is enough at the mo(5 max)

ADY is now > 50% of my invested capital :D

[Dazza]

After being freehold for awhile.

I finally brought some today at 44cents. am admiring admiralty's strength, for sure it has come down since its high of 67cents

but folks, it has stayed at this 45-55 cent zone for awhile.

i was waiting and hoping for the dirty 30s, however i have waited long enough.

so dipped in a little big again, am thinking of building a holding or not.

its MC is 450 mill... not as cheap as it was back in the 200 mill zone.

but i am familiar with demergers eg ARU and NUP.

So i have seen what it 'can do ' to the SP.

[shasta]

After being freehold for awhile.

I finally brought some today at 44cents. am admiring admiralty's strength, for sure it has come down since its high of 67cents

but folks, it has stayed at this 45-55 cent zone for awhile.

i was waiting and hoping for the dirty 30s, however i have waited long enough.

so dipped in a little big again, am thinking of building a holding or not.

its MC is 450 mill... not as cheap as it was back in the 200 mill zone.

but i am familiar with demergers eg ARU and NUP.

So i have seen what it 'can do ' to the SP.

No one ever regretted buying quality, & ADY fits this bill, Dazza.

RLL will be a stand out performer next year, so building up a position sub 50c is a very smart move IMO.

ADY is over half my invested capital, so im happy to put my $$$ where my :eek: is

[Ttops]

No one ever regretted buying quality, & ADY fits this bill, Dazza.

RLL will be a stand out performer next year, so building up a position sub 50c is a very smart move IMO.

ADY is over half my invested capital, so im happy to put my $$$ where my :eek: is

Bought a little more today sub 45 too. It pays to be a little patient. We can only hope the Dow "doz" it again for us. ;)

[shasta]

Bought a little more today sub 45 too. It pays to be a little patient. We can only hope the Dow "doz" it again for us. ;)

May it keep falling, at least until im fully invested again :D

[spruik]

We shouldn't be such greedy buggers... you will get more but it may be harder to move up seriously when the time comes.

If I may ask, how many you have now shasta...? :)

[shasta]

We shouldn't be such greedy buggers... you will get more but it may be harder to move up seriously when the time comes.

If I may ask, how many you have now shasta...? :)

Not enough...:eek:

[Hawke]

Ill be in for some at 40.5

Hawke.

[shasta]

Ill be in for some at 40.5

Hawke.

Dont be too confident of getting them that low, pay up & ensure you get them, as we cant be too far away from some more Iron Ore JORC anns from Maripose and Primavera (nearby to Japonesa)

Remembering the JV (ADY 60%) already have a JORC for 84MT @ Japonesita & Japonesa, & another inferred 6MT on site.

[Bobbyvee]

well Shasta with 50% invested in ADY and still wanting more your predictions better be right!

[spruik]

Come on shasta... stop the rot and start buying! :)

[soulman]

Don't worry Spruik, Hawke will mop it all up at 40.5.

[spruik]

Don't worry Spruik, Hawke will mop it all up at 40.5.

It's the boys at HotCopper that are panicking... feel sorry for them. Hope Hawke is on duty at his screen!

[Hawke]

Todays truth is folks is Hawke has filled his belly with REALLLY cheap NWE (on super sale)- on todays negative news.

With even a strong Dow unable to grease the axels of ADY- has me a little concerned and I think 40.5 is a bit too expensive.
38c- seems a good deal now.

Hawke.....soaring over the laggared ADY.

[Ttops]

Todays truth is folks is Hawke has filled his belly with REALLLY cheap NWE (on super sale)- on todays negative news.

With even a strong Dow unable to grease the axels of ADY- has me a little concerned and I think 40.5 is a bit too expensive.
38c- seems a good deal now.

Hawke.....soaring over the laggared ADY.
If this happens on an up Dow just imagine what will happen on a downer. I tend to agree Hawke have readjusted my bids but Shasta will be competing with us all the way down. ;)

[shasta]

If this happens on an up Dow just imagine what will happen on a downer. I tend to agree Hawke have readjusted my bids but Shasta will be competing with us all the way down. ;)

Shasta likes paying 45c for $1.50 ...

If he can do so for less than that, the margin of safety increases...

Makes him wanna buy more...

Hawke - dont be greedy else i might not let you get them!

[steve fleming]

Shasta likes paying 45c for $1.50 ...


Hi Shasta,

Of the $1.5 billion you think ADY is worth, how would you split that between the Iron Ore and Li operations?

[Hawke]

Shasta you must have your boots full to spill with ADY????
I think your being greedy in hogging up all those ADYs.......save some cheapies for me!

I do like paying 38c for the mystical $1.50 though...... (who said hard luck to get em for 42c??)
As soon as a real cloudy day appears I will swoop.

NWE today was a steal!!

Hawke- Circling the rabbits.

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,

Of the $1.5 billion you think ADY is worth, how would you split that between the Iron Ore and Li operations?

Steve, i dont think its worth $1.5b, not yet anyway...:eek:

Lets assume the combined market cap is around 500m (approx 50c @ 980m pre-split), i'd attribute 40% or $200M to ADY, & 60%, $300m to RLL

Post split thats 200/280m = 71c for ADY, & 300/280m = $1.07 RLL.

Now lets consider a suitable P/E ratio for each*

State One valued ADY at $1.20 (EPS 15c) looking forward (pre-split) BEFORE all the additional iron ore JORC resources & when we held 49% of the JV (now 60%), & before we knew the full resource of the Lithium...

FE prices are due for a substantial rise, 20 - 35% in 2008 (depends on your source!), so getting to $1.50 from $1.20 isnt out of the question, & thats going from a forward P/E of 8 to 10.

Given that both ADY & RLL are conservatively expected to have revenues > $100M (the Iron Ore from Nov 07 is due to have production of 234k per month, approx $10m revenue p.m), lets split the P/E up...

* ADY = 40% (6c), RLL = 60% (9c) based on a pre-split EPS of 15c

ADY - to get EPS of 6c on 280m = profit of $17m (will exceed that easily)

RLL - to get EPS of 9c on 280m = profit of $25m (should exceed that too)

I would be "comfortable" valuing an iron ore company on a P/E of 10 - 15 given the upside for 2009 & beyond with forward sales contracts & 9 IO mines in Chile, with more JORC upgrades to come....

ADY at EPS of 6c x 10 - 15, gives us a valuation range of 60 - 90c

For RLL given the massive resource & the lack of suitable comparisons (SQM perhaps?) i'd attribute a P/E range of 15 - 20 as a growth stock.

RLL at EPS of 9c x 15 - 20 gives us a range of 145 - 180c

Take the mid points, ADY @ 75c X 280m = $210m

RLL @ 167c x 280m = $467m, combined value approx $677m

Pretty rough calcs Steve, but you get the picture?

My personal opinion is that both companies are worth far more, but we need an independent valuation on RLL before we can ascertain this.

Tinker with the figures to suit folks, but you can see why ADY will surge in the lead up to the demerger date!

[steve fleming]

Thanks Shasta, thats some good analysis.

So based on the numbers above, fair value for ADY is about 68 cents?

[spruik]

Shasta, I can see your buy order in for 1,100,000 @ 0.445 (as at 09:07 - I know you usually get in early!).

Don't you dare take it away before opening!!! :D


Edit: Oh no, you just reduced it to 0.435 - you're so stingy!!!

[OutToLunch]

Don't believe it for a second -- just trader's games -- it'll disappear in a flash just before open, guaranteed... :eek: I'd be happier to see the sell side being played instead but unfortunately it looks like a seller is still trying to maximise their exit price by manipulating the buy depth.

[spruik]

Don't believe it for a second -- just trader's games -- it'll disappear in a flash just before open, guaranteed... :eek: I'd be happier to see the sell side being played instead but unfortunately it looks like a seller is still trying to maximise their exit price by manipulating the buy depth.

OTL, I'm aware it most likely is - seen it so many times before. But I could help you manipulating on the sell side, but if there is a connection problem at the critical time I might me stuffed...

[OutToLunch]

Crikey you wouldn't want to do that with your precious ADY shares would you? They could be snapped up in a flash if a big ann came out -- too scary to contemplate! Wild horses wouldn't be able to get me to part with mine right now (although $2 might). :D:D:D

It looks like our fake buyer at 43.5c hasn't been able to flush out too many higher bids so far anyway.... shame about that. :cool:

[spruik]

Hmmmm... looks like it's Shasta after all, he also has a 1m order at .430 - but then he might chicken out as sales move lower!

[shasta]

Shasta, I can see your buy order in for 1,100,000 @ 0.445 (as at 09:07 - I know you usually get in early!).

Don't you dare take it away before opening!!! :D


Edit: Oh no, you just reduced it to 0.435 - you're so stingy!!!

Shasta had his birthday today & the day off, & wasn't buying or selling anything!

[shasta]

Thanks Shasta, thats some good analysis.

So based on the numbers above, fair value for ADY is about 68 cents?

68c is ADY's all time high & i'd be happy with that, however the run up to the demerger should see the SP well north of that, perhaps into the 80's?

I didnt allow for any of the other "minor" projects that ADY will retain, so add say 3c to your 68c & we get 71c - same as the rough figure i calculated.

[JackSprat]

Shasta had has birthday today & the day off, & wasn't buying or selling anything!

Thirty one today, thirty one today. Never been 31 before. Happy birthday Shasta and thanks for your current run down on ADY. I'm puzzled at the sp after the DOW's climb last night but then I realized the pattern is; DOW goes up, ADY goes sideways, DOW goes down again, ADY climbs up.
DOW should climb again tonight. I read a little way back that some forecast 15000 by Xmas so more sideways.
No one knows that's for sure and thank goodness.
Cheers ;)

[shasta]

Thirty one today, thirty one today. Never been 31 before. Happy birthday Shasta and thanks for your current run down on ADY. I'm puzzled at the sp after the DOW's climb last night but then I realized the pattern is; DOW goes up, ADY goes sideways, DOW goes down again, ADY climbs up.
DOW should climb again tonight. I read a little way back that some forecast 15000 by Xmas so more sideways.
No one knows that's for sure and thank goodness.
Cheers ;)

Cheers JS

I do a ton of research & try to know a company inside out before investing in it, so am always happy to share my workings/rantings/ravings :D

And by all means the cheap ADY's on offer are EVERYONES present...

Won't last forever at this price, so get it while you can...

[spruik]

Happy birthday from me too Shasta!

Many Happy ADYs

[spruik]

Todays truth is folks is Hawke has filled his belly with REALLLY cheap NWE (on super sale)- on todays negative news.

With even a strong Dow unable to grease the axels of ADY- has me a little concerned and I think 40.5 is a bit too expensive.
38c- seems a good deal now.

Hawke.....soaring over the laggared ADY.

See Hawke, as at today you should've got ADY instead of NWE. The former moved down and the latter moved up. Bugger.

I'm sure Shasta has been buying most of them! :)

[shasta]

See Hawke, as at today you should've got ADY instead of NWE. The former moved down and the latter moved up. Bugger.

I'm sure Shasta has been buying most of them! :)

Not me, im no where near the top 20 list!

Am now fully invested, & nice to see ADY up today!

Basically can't find anything else i like at the moment, other than what i hold already!

[alexroseinnes]

Not me, im no where near the top 20 list!

Am now fully invested, & nice to see ADY up today!

Basically can't find anything else i like at the moment, other than what i hold already!

ADY on the run today. Hitting 49.5c.

[Viking]

50c now!! :D

IS THIS THE DAY?

[shasta]

ADY on the run today. Hitting 49.5c.

Hit 50.5c intra day high & closed at 50c... nice :D

Volume of 11m not huge but looks like we have breached one resistance level.

Next stop 52.5c i believe (can a chartist "correct" me please).

[JackSprat]

Thanks OTL, nice to have some comforting figures to look at. My observation of the current sp is that it tends to drop when the rest of the market is not too bad and swing up again when things get a little rougher. A bit perverse but a good sign because it seems people fall back on a reliable stock when everything else gets hit?

Which proves my point today. Let's hope it carries on. What we need is a new iron jorc to keep things flowing along.............:D

[shasta]

Which proves my point today. Let's hope it carries on. What we need is a new iron jorc to keep things flowing along.............:D

Which one would you like? :D

We have plenty more JORC's to release...

The ADY "Iron Ore" story is only going to come to light when the demerger valuations come out.

I shall tell you in advance, the Iron Ore valuation will surprise many...

The Lithium is what we are all looking forward to, buts that 6 - 9 months away & another 12 months til we are at full tilt.

[WASL]

Hi All,

Nice to see the rise today.

Can anyone remind me of the demerge timetable - when should we expect to see a quickening in the upwards movement in price?

Regards and

Good Luck as Always

WASL

Resource related holdings
BHP, ADY, HSK, KAR, MAH, AAX, MDL

[shasta]

Hi All,

Nice to see the rise today.

Can anyone remind me of the demerge timetable - when should we expect to see a quickening in the upwards movement in price?

Regards and

Good Luck as Always

WASL

Resource related holdings
BHP, ADY, HSK, KAR, MAH, AAX, MDL

PT has previously "indicated" that the demerger will occur around Feb 08.

Um if i knew when it would "fly" i'd dumb my other 2 stocks & load up!

Once we get the demerger valuations - ADY will spike hard...

We will also get a tax ruling on the cost basis etc...

Like when we got the Lithium for 400 years worth $US44.7b ann, she'll go off like a frog in a sock :D

[WASL]

Thanks Shasta,

The temptation is to dive in & accumulate - but - I'm already a bit over weight in them. Nonetheless, I have enough to make a good bundle if our wildest dreams come true.

Good luck as always


WASL

[shasta]

Thanks Shasta,

The temptation is to dive in & accumulate - but - I'm already a bit over weight in them. Nonetheless, I have enough to make a good bundle if our wildest dreams come true.

Good luck as always


WASL

Overweight, morbidly obese, whatever ...

Grab as much as you can stuff in :D

Im over 50% invested in ADY & wanting more - its not too often you get these lil gems, so vastly undervalued & staring back at you! :eek:

[shasta]

HC has brought up a very valid point in the comparsion of Hermatite & Magnetite for Iron Ore companies...

Bad news, ADY has magnetite so i urge you all to read the Iron Ore thread.

ADY will still do ok, & has sales contracts in place already, but had our resource been hermatite we'd have been taken out by now!

Good news, is that our Lithium is about as pure as it gets, & we are in the lead position in this regard.

Companies like GXY will emerge & be unfairly compared to RLL (the same way all U companies get the "next Paladin" tag etc), but they DO NOT have the same style Lithium, in fact NO ONE in Australia does. SQM in Chile (listed in the USA?) would be our only comparison!

[spruik]

Last 400,000 @ 0.495. Never to be repeated!

Swing upward after retrace. Next stop 0.600.

[JackSprat]

Raced away to .52 today on the following news:

10 December 2007
Company Announcements Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT APPROVED
LITHIUM PILOT PLANT COMMISSIONED
The Directors are pleased to report that RESOLUTION Nº 471, from the Mining Secretary Of Salta,
Argentina, Judicial Proceeding Nº 18119, states that the Environmental Impact Statement Report filed
by RINCON LITHIUM LIMITED in the Judicial Proceeding N° 18119, "Rincón" Mining Group, is in
compliance with the current mining and environmental regulations. They state that “ the Concessionary
Company, RINCON LITHIUM LIMITED, has filed an Environmental Impact Statement for the activities
of Brine's Exploitation and Pilot Plant operations, corresponding to the Judicial Proceeding N° 18119.
The assessment of the Environmental Impact Report carried out by the Mining Policing Area of the
Secretary shows the Environmental Impact Report meets the requirements of current regulations. At the
same time, this approval defines the environmental baseline for the life of the Project being the
conditions and parameters against which all future impacts will be assessed.
LITHIUM PILOT PLANT COMMISSIONED
Our Director of Technical Services, Dr Carlos Sorentino reports that the Pilot Plant has been
commissioned and has commenced operating, with first production of unrefined lithium carbonate
estimated to occur on 16-26 Apr 2008. Purification of this material will take a further week and
production of refined commercial lithium carbonate is expected by the end of April 2008.
TENDER FOR SALE OF 10% OF PRODUCTION FOR 10 YEARS AND AGENCY ARRANGEMENTS
Invitations were sent to a large number of prospective clients and traders inviting them to tender for 10%
of our annual production (1,700 tonnes per annum), and to sell 50% of our production via an agency
arrangement. After all confidentiality agreements are received, tender documents will be issued. The
completion date for the tenders is late February 2008.
RIO GRANDE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
The Environmental Impact Statement was filed on Monday 5 November 2007. This impact statement
will allow us to mine sodium sulphate from the deposit and convert it into Sodium Carbonate. Unlike
most of our competitors this will allow us to control the production and cost of sodium carbonate and
further reduce our operating costs compared to acquiring the sodium carbonate from the market.
PERSONNEL
In Argentina, the company currently employs 22 professional personnel in four locations Buenos Aires,
Salta, Jujuy and Rincon Salar. Mr Alberto Ovejero Toledo has been engaged as Geologist to establish
Page 2
the Company's Geological department. Mr Toledo was an Assistant Geologist during the exploration of
the Salar where he gained considerable knowledge and experience about Rincon. He completed an
Honours Thesis with High Distinction on the mineralogy of the Salar lithology. He joined the company on
6 November 2007. A Commercial Manager, Mr Sebastian Sabater Capllonch, has been appointed to
the position of Procurement and Contract Manager and will supervise the tendering and construction of
the final processing plant.
Phillip Thomas
Executive Director – Admiralty Resources
Managing Director – Rincon Lithium Limited

And then profit taking came into play and sp .48 :confused:

[Ttops]

Raced away to .52 today on the following news:
And then profit taking came into play and sp .48 :confused:

Any ideas why? Not the ann they expected perhaps. Disappointed by the time line before Li produced in late April? This was all known so a bit confusing. Shasta what are your thoughts.

[shasta]

Any ideas why? Not the ann they expected perhaps. Disappointed by the time line before Li produced in late April? This was all known so a bit confusing. Shasta what are your thoughts.

52.5c is a resistance level & when ADY failed to breach it, it was always going to retrace, i thought we would close around 50c (VWAP 50.05c), as the ann was a bit of "nothing" really as the permit was a formality.

Nothing we didnt already know, & the timeline hasnt slipped at all!

The weakness in the afternoon surprised me, i thought we might end at least square, given the high # of trades (764) & over 24m turnover.

Lets see what happens tomorrow & the rest of the week.

[rev]

Shasta, do you have a life data feed?

[rev]

Sorry, i meant live data feed

[shasta]

Sorry, i meant live data feed

No just get the data for free off Stockness :D

[Ttops]

Nicely out of sync with the Dow. Short rally is over for some unknown reason that makes me smell insider knowledge. Let me guess. A negative ann out soon.

[shasta]

Nicely out of sync with the Dow. Short rally is over for some unknown reason that makes me smell insider knowledge. Let me guess. A negative ann out soon.

Naw its doing its usual contrarian thing, when the ASX is green in general, ADY disappoints...:confused:

Fear not, ADY will bounce hard off 45c & it wont matter what the DOW does!

[JackSprat]

It's bouncing and taking a tip from your other interests Shasta we might all be getting a Veuve Clicquot for Xmas now they have Dr Alonso aboard. :rolleyes:

[WASL]

With the recent strong volumes (last 3 months) it will be very interesting to see top-20 current ownership changes. Certainly there has been a lot of trading but I suspect some serious long-term guys are doing some serious accumulation. Anyone have any thoughts? insights?

Regards, and

Good Luck as Always


WASL

[tricha]

Very, very clever move here, secure local endorsement!

KEY EXECUTIVE APPOINTMENT – DR R ALONSO - HEAD OF EXPLORATION

The Directors are pleased to announce that Dr Ricardo Alonso has joined the staff of Rincon Lithium
Limited to manage the geological development of the existing mineral
deposits at the Rincon Salar, Rio Grande, Rapeh, and Luciana mines and
develop other mineral exploration opportunities.
Previously he held the prestigious positions of Secretary of Mining of the
Salta Provence, and Mining and Energy Minister and was responsible for the
orderly exploitation and management of mineral resources in the region. His
responsibilities included technical and legislative advice, management of
mining exploitation claims and activities and mining related infrastructure. Dr Alonso is without doubt
the foremost geologist in the Puna/Rincon/Salta region and has an extensive knowledge of brines and
salars in addition to base metals geology.
Dr Alonso has published and had peer reviewed, 254 papers in international mining and geology
journals, and has written over 1100 scientific articles for various journals and magazines. He is a Fellow
of the Economic Geology Society, Fellow of the American Geological Society, has been awarded the
Hussein Prize to Science, ADEPA Prize to scientific journalism, and the winner of the prestigious
Argentinean Mining Prize of 2007. He has been a member of staff at the National University of Salta.
Ricardo is also a master connoisseur of good wines, of which Argentina has an abundant supply.
Admiralty Resources NL is delighted to have Ricardo as a member of the management and technical
team.

Phillip Thomas

Executive Director – Admiralty Resources
Managing Director – Rincon Lithium Limited
[t] +61-3-96701838
[f] +61-3-9670 1898
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au

[shasta]

Very, very clever move here, secure local endorsement!



KEY EXECUTIVE APPOINTMENT – DR R ALONSO - HEAD OF EXPLORATION
The Directors are pleased to announce that Dr Ricardo Alonso has joined the staff of Rincon Lithium
Limited to manage the geological development of the existing mineral
deposits at the Rincon Salar, Rio Grande, Rapeh, and Luciana mines and
develop other mineral exploration opportunities.
Previously he held the prestigious positions of Secretary of Mining of the
Salta Provence, and Mining and Energy Minister and was responsible for the
orderly exploitation and management of mineral resources in the region. His
responsibilities included technical and legislative advice, management of
mining exploitation claims and activities and mining related infrastructure. Dr Alonso is without doubt
the foremost geologist in the Puna/Rincon/Salta region and has an extensive knowledge of brines and
salars in addition to base metals geology.
Dr Alonso has published and had peer reviewed, 254 papers in international mining and geology
journals, and has written over 1100 scientific articles for various journals and magazines. He is a Fellow
of the Economic Geology Society, Fellow of the American Geological Society, has been awarded the
Hussein Prize to Science, ADEPA Prize to scientific journalism, and the winner of the prestigious
Argentinean Mining Prize of 2007. He has been a member of staff at the National University of Salta.
Ricardo is also a master connoisseur of good wines, of which Argentina has an abundant supply.
Admiralty Resources NL is delighted to have Ricardo as a member of the management and technical
team.
Phillip Thomas
Executive Director – Admiralty Resources
Managing Director – Rincon Lithium Limited
[t] +61-3-96701838
[f] +61-3-9670 1898
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au


Good article thanks Tricha, PT is making all the right moves with RLL.

As predicted ADY held 45c & bounced nicely...

Must be another IO JORC around the corner too, perhaps tomorrow?

[Ttops]

Does sound like his smooth talking of the local lingo rather than his scientific expertise is the reason for his employment. Good move.

[tricha]

Does sound like his smooth talking of the local lingo rather than his scientific expertise is the reason for his employment. Good move.

Hmm, when in Rome do what the Romans do, anyway flogged this of hot copper, lithium the metal of the future! topped up again today, watch this space early next year.;)
Will be far more rewarding in my opinion than Arafura when they did their split.ARU are still talking about it, where as ADY ................:)


http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/breakthrough-battery-has-a-lifespan-of-10-plus-years/2007/12/12/1197135506004.html

An empoyee of Toshiba displays a new Lithium-ion battery "SCiB" (Super Charge ion Battery), which can recharge to 90 percent of full capacity in less than five minutes.

An empoyee of Toshiba displays a new Lithium-ion battery "SCiB" (Super Charge ion Battery), which can recharge to 90 percent of full capacity in less than five minutes.

A new battery that goes on sale next year can be fully recharged in five minutes and has a lifespan of more than 10 years.

Toshiba will start selling rechargeable batteries next year, launching itself into what is seen as a promising but increasingly competitive market.

Toshiba described the Super Charge ion Battery, or SCiB, as a "breakthrough rechargeable battery" that can be fully recharged in five minutes and has a lifespan of more than 10 years if completely run down and recharged once a day.

"The excellent performance of the SCiB will assure its successful application in industrial systems and in the electronic vehicles markets as a new energy solution," said Toshiba vice president Toshiharu Watanabe.

Japanese firms are vying to develop lithium-ion batteries that can be used in hybrid or electric vehicles, but there are safety concerns following recalls of millions of potentially flammable laptop computer batteries made by Sony.

Watanabe said Toshiba was satisfied that its battery was safe.

"The possibility of the battery catching fire is extremely low and it will not explode even if it ruptures," he told a press conference.

The company expects to start shipping the battery from March 2008 and has set a global sales target of $US895 million by the year to March 2016, by which it aims to have a market share of 10 per cent.

Toshiba hopes the SCiB will be used in battery-powered bicycles, motorcycles, electric forklift trucks and construction machinery, all of which already use rechargeable batteries, Watanabe said.

It also sees potential for their use in petrol-electric hybrid cars, pure electric vehicles and mobile telephones.

"Toshiba will ride with the trend set by automobile companies. When hybrids and electric cars become prevalent, the SCiB will probably be applied to them," said Toshiba general manager Shoshi Kawatsu, who oversees the project.

He declined to comment whether his company was in talks with car manufacturers.

"We will continue to advance development in this area so that when other companies launch their own batteries we will be ahead," he said.

[Ttops]

new Lithium-ion battery "SCiB" (Super Charge ion Battery), which can recharge to 90 percent of full capacity in less than five minutes.

Sounds too good to be true. Perfect for drills.

[Scuffer]

This could finally be the nail in the coffin for oil as far as the motorist is concerned, that would defintely drop the price of oil

[Hawke]

Whats with the Fear -with Ady plummeting today?

Hawke.

[spruik]

Was surprised earlier in the day how well it kept up.

Now we have to ask Shasta for advice... :)

[Serpie]

I'm torn between wanting a recovery, and wanting a crash.

Not selling anything, but also getting the chequebook warmed up, and ADY is the first one in the sights.
Along with DYL, ADY is getting heavily sold despite the long term prospects. The lithium story is an absolute winner. Watching closely between now and Christmas.

[Scuffer]

I would say its following the trends in the market short term.

[Ttops]

Was surprised earlier in the day how well it kept up.

Now we have to ask Shasta for advice... :)
Assuming this was a cascade of stop losses triggered by fear. What the devil caused the fear? Fear of losing money for xmas. :confused:Does this put anyone off using a stop loss on ADY. Should be back over 45 in short order.

[STRAT]

ADY usually follows the DOW in between announcements. Short of some global collapse I wouldnt be too concerned fellas. ADY is fine in the bottom drawer I recon.

[spruik]

We still need shasta to comfort us and preach to the fearful...

Shasta oh shasta, hast thou forsaken us??? Surely you wouldn't sell out and flee? :rolleyes:

[STRAT]

We still need shasta to comfort us and preach to the fearful...

Shasta oh shasta, hast thou forsaken us??? Surely you wouldn't sell out and flee? :rolleyes:Come on Spruik, harden up mate'

Looks like another bad night on the DOW although showing signs of a small rally at the finnish. Will be interesting to see if ADY follows it down today.

[The Big Ease]

can i borrow a warrenism and just say that whatever you thought of ady 2 days ago is exactly what you should think of ady today. its got nothing to do with its prospects.

some of my stocks have been touched up, but none have an exposure to debt or sub-prime related markets except mqg. and i reckon those boys are on the ball. so if tuesday follows up with a cracking selldown, ill be loading up some more of my holdings as disclosed in the "out of interest" thread.

buy baby, buy.

[Ttops]

Agree BTE but what is causing the fear? Honestly I can't figure it. The Dow has been far worse and had bigger drops. Unless insiders know something we don't I am confused and if it doesn't rebound to 45 will be a bit suspicious.

[STRAT]

but none have an exposure to debt or sub-prime related markets
buy baby, buy.Are you sure about that. Everyone and everything is connected to the US situation and the FED is between a rock and a hard place of their own making. They can save the dollar or save the Stock Market but not both. Play hard I recon cause sooner or later Mother will come and say " everyone out of the pool "
Last one out gets no towel

[The Big Ease]

yeah im comfortable.
everything is connected to everything, but unless the US gets into a serious recession, it should not impact the main markets of my portfolio.

[bermuda]

Are you sure about that. Everyone and everything is connected to the US situation and the FED is between a rock and a hard place of their own making. They can save the dollar or save the Stock Market but not both. Play hard I recon cause sooner or later Mother will come and say " everyone out of the pool "
Last one out gets no towel

You are quite right Strat. Good old Greenspan and Bush kept everyone 'happy' for far too long. Now it's payback time and there is nowhere to go. And its worldwide..just look at CNP.

[shane_m]

got in with the target buy order! stop loss at 39c.

[STRAT]

Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
ADY.ASX - Admiralty Resources. - Ordinary Fully Paid

This is all I can see on Direct Broking:mad::mad::mad:

and now I have to log in again...aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh

[spruik]

Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
ADY.ASX - Admiralty Resources. - Ordinary Fully Paid

This is all I can see on Direct Broking:mad::mad::mad:

and now I have to log in again...aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh

Looks like a stuffed website.

Shane, well done. Looks like she's holding at 40.

[shasta]

Looks like a stuffed website.

Shane, well done. Looks like she's holding at 40.

ADY bouncing back from touching 40c quite nicely.

Had a wee fall & ended up in Hospital but slowly on the mend & back to supporting my favourite stock.

Hope as many as possible were "topping up" :D

[spruik]

Had a wee fall & ended up in Hospital...


You didn't trip over all those ADY's in your office by any chance? That explains why it cracked 45 and fell to 40...

[shasta]

You didn't trip over all those ADY's in your office by any chance? That explains why it cracked 45 and fell to 40...

Haha no i didnt - i wish :cool:

I see all my stocks have retreated the last couple of days :(

[JackSprat]

Glad you're back Shasta. Spruik was freeking out thinking you'd taken to the hills. Mind, when someone says they had a wee fall that often means they fell off a mountain or something. Anyway, the DOW is trying to turn into a bear or cow and the chickens are taking flight so a bumpy ride. It'll bounce right back again now because the Fed is feeding in another few billion.
ADY is suffering from BOTS and other manipulation as is a lot of stock and it's interesting just watching it all happen.

[JackSprat]

Something going on apparently. There's 9 million been traded at .45c in 2 trades!

[spruik]

That'll make those happy who sold this morning... particularly at 40c!

Interesting day, can't get away from the screen (can see many more now that I upgraded to 2 x 27").

[slam]

Nice bounce
Glad to have picked more up today close to the lows
Up 9% on todays trade.

Hope we all got enough, wish I'd had more Dosh :rolleyes:

Cheers
Slam

[JackSprat]

Is there a big ann due??

[soulman]

Maybe it's the iron ore announcement by RIO regarding the spot prices over 100% on last year. MGX also has a leap.

Well done on those that bought at the near low level for the day.

[Ttops]

Is there a big ann due??
Yep As follows:

Shasta had a fall. ADY's best supporter was down but up and on his feet and so is ADY. Plus 45 again but not for long :D No big falls now Shasta. I'd hate to see what it would do to ADY's sp ;);)

[JackSprat]

Yes good old Shasta. Will it reach .50 !! :rolleyes:

[shasta]

Yes good old Shasta. Will it reach .50 !! :rolleyes:

We may get another IO JORC ann this week, that along with the good news on IO price increases should help ADY rise again tomorrow.

Shall we see 50c, lets wait & see ...:confused:

If i was to fall again ADY may do in synch :D

[STRAT]

We may get another IO JORC ann this week, that along with the good news on IO price increases should help ADY rise again tomorrow.

Shall we see 50c, lets wait & see ...:confused:

If i was to fall again ADY may do in synch :DBack in the nick of time mate. Your absence was starting to cause mass panic. Hope you get better soon

Nice to be loved though eh? ;)

[shasta]

Back in the nick of time mate. Your absence was starting to cause mass panic. Hope you get better soon

Nice to be loved though eh? ;)

I may end up recuperating elsewhere so if im gone for a few days, fair not!

I'll be back...:D

[STRAT]

I may end up recuperating elsewhere so if im gone for a few days, fair not!

I'll be back...:DIm always fair mate. seldom fearful though:D

[Ttops]

Assuming this was a cascade of stop losses triggered by fear. What the devil caused the fear? Fear of losing money for xmas. :confused:Does this put anyone off using a stop loss on ADY. Should be back over 45 in short order.

Still want to know what caused this fear. Was it the fear of the fed not lowering interest rates due to inflation fears in the US? Was it an ASX phenomenon related to subprime? Was it Xmas selling? Was it fear that Shasta was selling? :eek: :eek: Did my best Shasta to hold the fort with Shastaristic last comment yesterday. Quite proud of that prediction. :cool:

[Hawke]

Well Ady is a real mover about isnt it!

I got back in yesterday at 42 and out this PM at 45.5.

I must admit to felling a bit sick when it quickly tested 40c this morning.....where would it stop???
-but then the big bounce this afternoon.

ADY is a living, breathing, thrashing Megamineralite!!

I would like some more at 41c please!!!

Hawke

[tricha]

Still want to know what caused this fear. Was it the fear of the fed not lowering interest rates due to inflation fears in the US? Was it an ASX phenomenon related to subprime? Was it Xmas selling? Was it fear that Shasta was selling? :eek: :eek: Did my best Shasta to hold the fort with Shastaristic last comment yesterday. Quite proud of that prediction. :cool:

Who cares what caused it, blind panic, skitzos, what ever, or your ASX phenomenon.

Their loss and our gain

Come split day thou who hold shall reap the rewards.

lithium willl be bigger than Ben Hur

[Huang Chung]

Come split day thou who hold shall reap the rewards.



Sounding almost biblical there Tricha. :)

[spruik]

Come split day thou who hold shall reap the rewards.

lithium willl be bigger than Ben Hur

Amen.

.

[Ttops]

Who cares what caused it, blind panic, skitzos, what ever, or your ASX phenomenon.

Their loss and our gain

Come split day thou who hold shall reap the rewards.

lithium willl be bigger than Ben Hur

Tricha
If this is likely to happen again stop losses need to be adjusted accordingly. Anyone going on holiday will be either getting out so they can sleep easy, setting a stop loss and be prepared to miss out or are prepared to weather the storms no matter what. Knowing the reason gives an advantage imo in setting a stop loss or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if big players engineer these crashes to trigger stop losses.

You take advantage of it no matter the reason and thats fine. Must make a lot of punters quite nervous though when they are on holiday.

[tricha]

Tricha
If this is likely to happen again stop losses need to be adjusted accordingly. Anyone going on holiday will be either getting out so they can sleep easy, setting a stop loss and be prepared to miss out or are prepared to weather the storms no matter what. Knowing the reason gives an advantage imo in setting a stop loss or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if big players engineer these crashes to trigger stop losses.

You take advantage of it no matter the reason and thats fine. Must make a lot of punters quite nervous though when they are on holiday.

That is why I never use stop losses, but they do make excellent buying opportunties like yesterday.

Sally Malay actually hit $4.02, a whole $1.00 drop from the previous day, to finish 28 cents down, who sold at $4 lost big time.
Who bought won big time.

Who bought ADY at 40 cents won big time as well, I currently hold 100,000 so buying more would have been too many eggs in the one pot.

I held ARU last year and againist my better judgement sold them before the split ouch,.:mad:

Admiralty have a lot more going for it than ARU, they are producers whereas ARU are still wanabees.

Let us all hope that piggee in the market yesterday that bought ADY big time yesterday, wants more.

Huang Chung - "Sounding almost biblical there Tricha."

Nothing like a change in style Huang to highlight the facts, do u hold Huang , looks a farourite in 2008 share picks. ????????????

[Ttops]

That is why I never use stop losses, but they do make excellent buying opportunties like yesterday.

Sally Malay actually hit $4.02, a whole $1.00 drop from the previous day, to finish 28 cents down, who sold at $4 lost big time.
Who bought won big time.

Who bought ADY at 40 cents won big time as well, I currently hold 100,000 so buying more would have been too many eggs in the one pot.

I held ARU last year and againist my better judgement sold them before the split ouch,.:mad:

Admiralty have a lot more going for it than ARU, they are producers whereas ARU are still wanabees.

Let us all hope that piggee in the market yesterday that bought ADY big time yesterday, wants more.

Huang Chung - "Sounding almost biblical there Tricha."

Nothing like a change in style Huang to highlight the facts, do u hold Huang , looks a farourite in 2008 share picks. ????????????

Being a newbie to mining shares Tricha its good to here from your experience. Having been stopped out of this share in the early crash I'm hanging in without any stop loss now too.
Good sign that pigee got in above that magical 45c :) It's Confidence building but I expect volatility before xmas and until that split but its getting to be the norm.

[Ttops]

Not much interest today unless its a bargain. Everyone had xmas early and are fully bloated. Sellers will surely have to wait until a good ann or after the holidays?

[shasta]

Not much interest today unless its a bargain. Everyone had xmas early and are fully bloated. Sellers will surely have to wait until a good ann or after the holidays?

Am back & expecting a nice strong close for ADY. :D

Those that didnt pick ADY in the 2008 comp, suggest you do so!

For those that think i have been selling ...:eek:

You'd be kidding me?

Not selling until AFTER the split, & even then it may just be selling ADY to buy more RLL.

PT is a GOD :cool:

[shasta]

After the DOW rose 200 odd points & with metal prices holding up, am expecting a good day for ADY, perhaps a close around 47c?

Theres a good chance we will get another IO JORC ann this week too, to keep things ticking along.

Never thought this close to the demerger we would see ADY sub 60c, let alone 50c.

Just wish i had more available funds, although ADY is already >50&#37; of my invested capital!

[stevo1]

m/l must have taken quite a loss here .probably had to sell for liquidity for other parts of their business or were they warehousing the stock for others?

[Ttops]

After the DOW rose 200 odd points & with metal prices holding up, am expecting a good day for ADY, perhaps a close around 47c?

Theres a good chance we will get another IO JORC ann this week too, to keep things ticking along.

Never thought this close to the demerger we would see ADY sub 60c, let alone 50c.

Just wish i had more available funds, although ADY is already >50&#37; of my invested capital!
Shasta

Whats happening? Yellow tiddlers or cash strapped sub primer. ML sold 12th Dec? To me it looks like a pre Xmas sale which ever way. Who cares. Quite happy to pick up some more before the inevitable good news from PT and the split. Your short term predictions not so good today Shasta but its the longer term that really matters now.

[boxing_beaver]

ML never actually owned those shares - they were held on behalf as collatoral for a loan. i guess the real owner of the shares will be revealed in the next top20 update?

[spruik]

There have been some uninformed individuals pressing the panick button and sold after the report came out. The same individuals got all excited when ML showed on the register.

Like boxing_beaver said, ML held those as security. There is no beneficial change of ownership.

[AMR]

New to the ADY story here. Is it a better time to buy now or wait until the demerger?

[ratkin]

Everybody including this in their picks for 2008 . That has to be a worry.

[STRAT]

New to the ADY story here. Is it a better time to buy now or wait until the demerger?Before I recon but get a second opinion ;)

[tricha]

New to the ADY story here. Is it a better time to buy now or wait until the demerger?

Check out the Arafura (ARU) story with the split and creation of Nupower (NUP), it was done early in the year and created a winful for ARU holders.
Their price has since crashed, but they do not produce.
ADY should better it because it is a happening reality.

ADY's lithium has huge potential, with the likes of a major company like Toyota shoring up its Lithium supply, when it happens ADY willl be ................

But like anything if life, there is no gaurentee.

.................................................. .................................................

A worry Rakin or the best speculation play on the market!

[tricha]

http://www.smartstox.com/analyst/rick_rule/

[Ttops]

http://www.smartstox.com/analyst/rick_rule/

Is this a post xmas puzzle Tricha?

Potash :cool:

[shasta]

New to the ADY story here. Is it a better time to buy now or wait until the demerger?

AMR

ADY sub 50c is the time to buy IMO.

ADY will likely run a little too hard in the lead up to the demerger details (which will include independent valuations on BOTH ADY & RLL).

I believe ADY will drop post demerger, & RLL will to continue to run whilst full capacity is being ramped up.

Both are likely takeover targets once they are separately listed.

[tricha]

Is this a post xmas puzzle Tricha?

Potash :cool:


Bingo treetops, a bit of icing on the cake.:p

[shasta]

Bingo treetops, a bit of icing on the cake.:p

ADY looking a bit sick to end 2007 ...:confused:

So much to look forward to in just a few months time :D

Hope everyone has a truckload full of ADY to load up on RLL.

All the best for 2008 to all ADY holders :cool:

Disc: Have "averaged up" from 21c to 39c & very confident ADY/RLL will outperform in 2008.

[Ttops]

ADY looking a bit sick to end 2007 ...:confused:

So much to look forward to in just a few months time :D

Hope everyone has a truckload full of ADY to load up on RLL.

All the best for 2008 to all ADY holders :cool:

Disc: Have "averaged up" from 21c to 39c & very confident ADY/RLL will outperform in 2008.

Shasta :confused::confused: Is this an end of quarter/year phenomenon? Any predictions for the close. I think it will bounce off 41.5 again and close at 43.5

[shasta]

Shasta :confused::confused: Is this an end of quarter/year phenomenon? Any predictions for the close. I think it will bounce off 41.5 again and close at 43.5

Usually the end of quarter has "window dressing", but ADY usually goes down when the DOW is green! :confused:

Anything better than 42c close will do me...

Would like more though of course...:D

It amazes me that such an undervalued company is starring so many in the face, yet people still don't rate ADY.

I mean $US45B worth of Li & a 400 year resource is not normal is it? :eek:

[Oiler]

Usually the end of quarter has "window dressing", but ADY usually goes down when the DOW is green! :confused:

Anything better than 42c close will do me...

Would like more though of course...:D

It amazes me that such an undervalued company is starring so many in the face, yet people still don't rate ADY.

I mean $US45B worth of Li & a 400 year resource is not normal is it? :eek:

Shasta....I have been quietly topping up my holding during these down days !!

One day not too far away the market is going to catch up and we holders are going to be saying........fffffffk what happened !

A great stock to own but very frustrating :(

[shasta]

Shasta....I have been quietly topping up my holding during these down days !!

One day not too far away the market is going to catch up and we holders are going to be saying........fffffffk what happened !

A great stock to own but very frustrating :(

Come late Feb - some of us will be wishing we had more ADY! :eek:

Others will be thinking, i should have got on it earlier...

Expect the Rincon Lithium valuations during January & a sharp spike in ADY's SP :cool:

[Ttops]

Shasta
Not a lot of selling today but not much buying support either? We need an ann!

[shasta]

Shasta
Not a lot of selling today but not much buying support either? We need an ann!

Check the volume, most people would be unaware the market was open, & most people likely still on holiday.

Use the weakness to top up, you WONT be disappointed :D

[Ttops]

Check the volume, most people would be unaware the market was open, & most people likely still on holiday.

Use the weakness to top up, you WONT be disappointed :D
Last sale at 5.43 NZ time. No one interested alright. All the true believers are on holiday .
PS except u an me of course

[Ttops]

Check the volume, most people would be unaware the market was open, & most people likely still on holiday.

Use the weakness to top up, you WONT be disappointed :D
Shasta
Hows that body now after that fall.
Today looks very good for topping up. Hope the Dow falling creates a little doubt amongst the non-believers. ;):D

[Ttops]

ADY going cheap at 42.5c but no takers! The world is obviously about to end??

[spruik]

ADY going cheap at 42.5c but no takers! The world is obviously about to end??

Have no fear...
Shasta is here...

[Ttops]

Have no fear...
Shasta is here...
Sell depth building. :) Looks like at least falling to 41c :) Stop losses could trigger quite a fall if set to tightly?

[spruik]

Looks like XJO is settling down, and believe ADY should be bought now at 0.420. Buyers strengthening a bit at 0.415 so we may not see 0.410.

[Serpie]

I think the the tecchies would want to see ADY back up above 46c before getting too excited, but the proposed February Lithium demerger is what I've been waiting for.

Nice to be onboard after watching ADY for the past 6 months.

[Halebop]

I think techies would want to see the price rising rather than falling but it is at least at the low end of the support channel.

[shasta]

Shasta
Hows that body now after that fall.
Today looks very good for topping up. Hope the Dow falling creates a little doubt amongst the non-believers. ;):D

Better after some more physio today & now im back expect a bounce in ADY...:D

Welcome aboard Serpie...

By the time TA tells you to get into ADY it would have spiked!

[Ttops]

I think techies would want to see the price rising rather than falling but it is at least at the low end of the support channel.

Must be techies selling as well as Dow recession believers? It doesn't look the best due to the hiatus in anns lately imo but it does appear to be very well supported if only by late comers Serpie and of course Shasta and I who can't resist a bargain. :D It only takes a little surge down for some to lose their bottle if not their stop losses in this volatile climate when everyone should be outside enjoying the sun. :):):)

Good to hear you are mending well Shasta.

[Halebop]

Must be techies selling as well as Dow recession believers?

Depending on the time frame I suspect any genuine techies are either still in from 12+ months ago or long gone from a few months ago. What I can see right now is this share is being distributed rather than accumulated - the sellers are simply outnumbering (I actually think outsizing) the buyers and the price is dropping. ADY is on the support line right now so what happens from around the 42 cents mark will probably be important from a technical perspective. All I've seen for the last 4 months is a share in a trading range that appears to be tightening. Normally that presages a movement one way or the other but in the short term you're a far brighter person than me if you know which way that is.

Disc: Like the Lithium story but don't hold

[shasta]

Depending on the time frame I suspect any genuine techies are either still in from 12+ months ago or long gone from a few months ago. What I can see right now is this share is being distributed rather than accumulated - the sellers are simply outnumbering (I actually think outsizing) the buyers and the price is dropping. ADY is on the support line right now so what happens from around the 42 cents mark will probably be important from a technical perspective. All I've seen for the last 4 months is a share in a trading range that appears to be tightening. Normally that presages a movement one way or the other but in the short term you're a far brighter person than me if you know which way that is.

Disc: Like the Lithium story but don't hold

Im not a Techie by any means but do use charts to support my decisions, however as you can see i have a 3 share portfolio all based on fundamentals, where i have calculated the intrinsic value far in excess of the current SP (depending on certain "events" occuring).

I believe if you find an unloved stock (URA) or extremely undervalued like(ADY/OEL) & believe the fundamentals then, go big, its not without risk but i don't like holding more than about 5 shares (min 3).

ADY is just over 50% of my 3 stock portfolio, as i want in for the RLL demerger & see any short term SP weakness as increasing the "margin of safety" & providing for a "top up" opportunity.

I haven't being averaging down, quite the contrary, i bought in at 21c, sold 1/3 at 63c (free carrying the balance) & sold half the remaining balance at an average 42.5c (when it dropped right back) & have bought back all that i sold now with an average cost price of 39c.

I expect ADY to double in the lead up to the demerger date, once the RLL valuation is announced.

We also have further Iron Ore JORC's to be announced at any time to support the SP.

Treetops - Thanks i'm hoping to be at work next week? :confused:

[spruik]

Looks like XJO is settling down, and believe ADY should be bought now at 0.420. Buyers strengthening a bit at 0.415 so we may not see 0.410.

On the move... shasta we love you!!! :)

[Ttops]

On the move... shasta we love you!!! :)
Ditto
His reply to Halebop was "pure Shasta" and started the swing in sentiment plus your clever assesment spruik that 42 would be the price to buy. :) I assume XJO is linked to market depth. Whats it stand for to save me googling.

[Serpie]

XJO is the ticker for the ASX200 TT

[Serpie]

I missed the close today, but it looks like 44c got monstered. Looks like over 500,000 went through at 44, with another 500,000 unfilled.

Hopefully a flat night on the Dow will see further consolidation around 45c.

[Ttops]

I missed the close today, but it looks like 44c got monstered. Looks like over 500,000 went through at 44, with another 500,000 unfilled.

Hopefully a flat night on the Dow will see further consolidation around 45c.
Thanks Serpie re XJO. We don't want the Dow to rise much though. :confused::)

So after the asx stopped falling and ADY really hadn't fallen much ADY recovered and ended higher considering the Dow fell.

I have a theory linked to Shasta's observation that the Dow and ADY seem to be inversely related. Feel free to shoot it down in flames anyone, thats what theories are about.

Theory attemting to explain the counter cyclical Shasta observation ADY falls when the Dow is green:

When the Dow falls the most risky stocks get dumped first and then with the spare cash punters look at at a fundamentally good stock with near term excellent prospects thus ADY rises against the tide so to speak. On the other hand when the Dow rises they get out of ADY freeing cash chasing rapidly rising spec stocks which they dump when the tide turns again.

[Serpie]

So you reckon they're treating ADY like a bank account? Deposit when things are risky, and withdraw when the risk subsides.

Looks range bound ($0.42c to $0.50c) over the last 3 months, so $0.42c looks to be a fair entry point, and $0.50c a fair exit point. Getting close to a possible de-merger record date now, so it should get more tightly held as the month goes on. $0.50c looks to be the psychological resistance point, but the consolidation will take care of that anyway, with a new SP of around $1.50 at current levels.
Then that of course will get smashed to pieces with the de-merger and the splitting off of the lithium assets.
It's going to be a volatile time while the market determines a fair value for the two entities.

[Ttops]

So you reckon they're treating ADY like a bank account? Deposit when things are risky, and withdraw when the risk subsides.

Looks range bound ($0.42c to $0.50c) over the last 3 months, so $0.42c looks to be a fair entry point, and $0.50c a fair exit point. Getting close to a possible de-merger record date now, so it should get more tightly held as the month goes on. $0.50c looks to be the psychological resistance point, but the consolidation will take care of that anyway, with a new SP of around $1.50 at current levels.
Then that of course will get smashed to pieces with the de-merger and the splitting off of the lithium assets.
It's going to be a volatile time while the market determines a fair value for the two entities.
Sooner or later there will be another trading halt and it will put on 20-30&#37; WITH THE GOOD NEWS eh shasta The worst thing is waiting :( You bought well Serpie :) Hell will freeze over before it breaks below 40 or shasta needs to have a calamitous accidental fall heaven forbid. :eek:

[shasta]

Sooner or later there will be another trading halt and it will put on 20-30% WITH THE GOOD NEWS eh shasta The worst thing is waiting :( You bought well Serpie :) Hell will freeze over before it breaks below 40 or shasta needs to have a calamitous accidental fall heaven forbid. :eek:

It wont go anywhere near 40c so stop panicking & Serpie, ADY WILL double between now & the demerger details are released, before we get these details ADY HAVE to announce the separate valuations for both entities post split.

See my post a few pages back when i calculated the value of both companies, i believe my figures were "conservative", & that ADY will spike hard when the announcement comes, problem is many will look to dump ADY & therefore there will be some weakness post split.

RLL will be one of the best performers of 2008, i have $$$$ on it happening

[Hawke]

The DOW is really in the dunny today- and look to get some 40c ADYs on Monday >MMMM.

Hawke.

[STRAT]

The DOW is really in the dunny today- and look to get some 40c ADYs on Monday >MMMM.

Hawke.Youll own em for 38c Hawke :D

[The Big Ease]

daily commentary on 1-2 cent movements in a 5 cent range.
fascinating stuff.

[Ttops]

daily commentary on 1-2 cent movements in a 5 cent range.
fascinating stuff.
Translates to ~2.5-5% movements daily in a ~12% range. Much more to come Big Ease :rolleyes: 100+ BIG Enough % :)

[Hawke]

Thanks Strat.

I not stingey- I'll offer the Ady people 38.5.

Hawke.

[Ttops]

Thanks Strat.

I not stingey- I'll offer the Ady people 38.5.

Hawke.
lol :D
Hawke
If the ADY theory is correct it will finish up as spare cash from risky stocks are "banked" in ADY. A good test for the theory. :cool:
But by all means join us Perfect timing for you. :)

[The Big Ease]

Translates to ~2.5-5% movements daily in a ~12% range. Much more to come Big Ease :rolleyes: 100+ BIG Enough % :)

thats my point.
it went up 2 cents: hip hip, hooray:D
it went down 2 cents: oooooh! *sigh* :confused:

[Ttops]

thats my point.
it went up 2 cents: hip hip, hooray:D
it went down 2 cents: oooooh! *sigh* :confused:
This is what we are waiting for while the sun slowwwlyyyy evaporates the water from the salar. High oil prices simply encourage the move to hybrid vehicles.
.


http://www.ady.com.au/demerger_pdf/c4ca4238a0b923820dcc509a6f75849b.pdf

[STRAT]

thats my point.
it went up 2 cents: hip hip, hooray:D
it went down 2 cents: oooooh! *sigh* :confused:Actually, what was your point? I thought you were just having a go at me cause you got out of the wrong side of the bed or something :D

[The Big Ease]

no nothing personal STRAT. just a general comment about the last x number of pages of comments in the thread have been about why the price has moved a couple of cents each day, whether up or down. discussion about the stock has given way to re-assuring each other, everyday, that youve made the right decision.

im watching with interest and agree that its a good story. however, when i log on each day i just know that there will be two threads at the top of the ASX board (URA/ADY) and that neither of them will have anything of substance added to them other than some theory on why the price has moved a couple of cents.

a bit like being in a dark room and everybody making noise to reassure the others that theyre not alone.

[shasta]

no nothing personal STRAT. just a general comment about the last x number of pages of comments in the thread have been about why the price has moved a couple of cents each day, whether up or down. discussion about the stock has given way to re-assuring each other, everyday, that youve made the right decision.

im watching with interest and agree that its a good story. however, when i log on each day i just know that there will be two threads at the top of the ASX board (URA/ADY) and that neither of them will have anything of substance added to them other than some theory on why the price has moved a couple of cents.

a bit like being in a dark room and everybody making noise to reassure the others that theyre not alone.

Im sorry you feel like this & have the need to indirectly take a cheapshot at me.

If you go back a few pages, i'm the only one who has actually bothered to attempt a valuation on ADY/RLL to actually support what i'm saying.

I have done the same thing on the Uran thread.

I'm happy for you to post your valuations contrary to mine & to debate the pros & cons, i'm merely sharing my thoughts & research with other fellow holders.

Yes, there is a bit of banter & "commentary" on this thread, but lighten up, we are all here to do well out of ADY & RLL are we not?