ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[The Big Ease]

i dont think that its a cheapshot. just calling it how i see it. i have read your analysis shasta and think you do a good job of it. more than "a bit" of banter id suggest. then again, maybe its that kinda stock....

ill be gone now ;)

[OutToLunch]

Happy new year you guys. Just got back and have been catching up on the ADY news.

Rather than fuss about the share price for now -- has anyone been scanning the other forums and picked up on the news regarding a big development in Li battery technology (see http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html), the fact that Toyota are going in for Li ("Toyota also said it was preparing to start mass producing lithium-ion batteries for low-emission vehicles." -- AP 25-12-2007 -- posted on HC by Troubleshooter), plus comments that potash demand (and prices) are taking off thanks to biofuel cropping. It's all happening for the 3 commodities that ADY is all about (ignoring the NT licences, which could be a bonus if this year's drilling turns up anything).

Too bad the US market is going the other way, but ADY is being driven by the looming energy shortage and tightening emissions standards, neither of which looks like going away -- so there's no need to panic and sell. Panic and buy, maybe. :) This time last year we were at 10.5c.

[Ttops]

Im sorry you feel like this & have the need to indirectly take a cheapshot at me.

If you go back a few pages, i'm the only one who has actually bothered to attempt a valuation on ADY/RLL to actually support what i'm saying.

I have done the same thing on the Uran thread.

I'm happy for you to post your valuations contrary to mine & to debate the pros & cons, i'm merely sharing my thoughts & research with other fellow holders.

Yes, there is a bit of banter & "commentary" on this thread, but lighten up, we are all here to do well out of ADY & RLL are we not?
More likely me shasta :o and you ARE much appreciated for your research. But I reckon there is a little truth in what he said so just for The Big Ease I've made a big effort and done some research for you guys. Don't know if this is oldie news repeated and but some late comers might appreciate knowing this is why we are in ADY anyway and expect a big improvement in sp relatively soon:

1
Continental AG To Commence Li-ion Pack Production In 2008

Source: Thomson Financial (http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=57266946656390)
[Jan 01, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Company would not identify automaker who will be using the packs, but GM has contracted with it to produce prototype packs for the Volt



HANNOVER, Germany - Speaking in a recent interview with German publication Auto Motor und Sport, Continental Automotive chief executive Manfred Wennemer said that the company plans to start series production of automotive lithium-ion packs in 2008.

Wennemer did not comment on which car manufacturers will use the battery, it added.

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17063

2
Super-Charging Lithium Batteries



Source: Technology Review (http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785)
[Jan 04, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Nanowire electrodes could improve the performance of electric vehicles.


Existing lithium batteries can enable battery-powered electrical vehicles to travel hundreds of miles on a charge, prompting a race among major automakers to demonstrate that the batteries are safe and durable enough for mass marketing. Battery developers, meanwhile, continue to push lithium performance. Last month, Stanford University materials scientists unveiled a nanowire electrode that could more than triple lithium batteries' energy storage capacity and improve their safety.

The development, reported in the scientific journal Nature Materials, stems from the labs of nanowire innovator Yi Cui and battery expert Robert Huggins at Stanford's Materials Science and Engineering Department. The researchers show that nanowires of silicon just a few atoms across can function as high-capacity electrodes, absorbing and releasing about 10 times more lithium ions than the graphite electrodes that are commonly used today.
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17095&url=http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785
Full article
http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785

http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/nalefd/asap/abs/nl0725906.html
3
Boston-Power Eyes Batteries for Plug-in Hybrids

Source: CNET News (http://www.news.com/Notebook-battery-maker-gets-charged-up-for-cars/2100-1041_3-6224334.html)
[Jan 04, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Notebook battery maker now plans to move into making large format lithium-ion batteries that could be used in plug-in hybrid cars.


It looks like it will be a busy year for Boston-Power.


The lithium-ion battery maker has raised $45 million in a third round of funding. It also has signed its second contract manufacturing deal, an agreement with China's GP Batteries, which will give it the capacity to churn out a million batteries a month by the end of 2008. In all, Boston-Power has raised more than $68 million in funding.




http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17088






4 ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL
A B N 7 4 0 1 0 1 9 5 9 7 2
T o p H o l d e r s D a i l y G r o u p e d
as at 31 Dec 2007
Top 20 Holders of ALL CLASSES OF ORD F/P SHARES
*G1 /ALL CLASSES OF ORD F/P SHARES
Rank Name Units
% of Issued
Capital
1 ANZ NOMINEES LIMITED 258,598,415 26.27
2 NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED 30,807,786 3.13
3 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 26,426,312 2.68
4 MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 19,921,435 2.02
5 CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 14,086,046 1.43
6 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 11,518,639 1.17
7 MRALFRED GILLILAND 11,136,000 1.13
8 WYNDHAM EXPLORATIONS SA 10,000,000 1.02
9 FORBAR CUSTODIANS LIMITED FORSYTH BARR LTD-NOMINEE A/C 8,163,585 0.83
10 HALIBERY HOTELS PTY LTD 6,450,000 0.66
11 ALGEBRAIC PTY LTD 5,913,917 0.60
12 J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED 5,787,781 0.59
13 G SANDILANDS INVESTMENTS PTY LTD 5,277,311 0.54
14 DSD NOMINEES PTY LTD DSD A/C C/- AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS NOMINE 5,045,211 0.51
15 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 5,021,649 0.51
16 BARRIOS PTY LTD 4,854,000 0.49
17 MR BRUCE HODGENS MRS BARBARA SUSAN HODGENS 4,600,000 0.47
18 WWB INVESTMENTS PTY LTD C/- LIFEFX PTY LTD 4,600,000 0.47
19 R J BROWN HOLDINGS PTY LTD 4,180,000 0.42
20 PANOPUS PLC 3,500,000 0.36
Total 445,888,087 45.30
Page 1 of 1



http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/top_20_shareholder/33e75ff09dd601bbe69f351039152189.pdf



So now we can have some comments not related to share price ;);)



1&3..It tells me that production of Lithium ion batteries is increasing:D


2..Research into improving Li ion battery safety and efficiency is big and if it is successful so will RLL be and US for a long time:D


4..Anyone remember the previous top 20 list and if


ML and CC were on it and if increasing or decreasing their % holding since then?


Does that make up for the last x pages?


Hope so. TT

[Ttops]

Happy new year you guys. Just got back and have been catching up on the ADY news.

Rather than fuss about the share price for now -- has anyone been scanning the other forums and picked up on the news regarding a big development in Li battery technology (see http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html), the fact that Toyota are going in for Li ("Toyota also said it was preparing to start mass producing lithium-ion batteries for low-emission vehicles." -- AP 25-12-2007 -- posted on HC by Troubleshooter), plus comments that potash demand (and prices) are taking off thanks to biofuel cropping. It's all happening for the 3 commodities that ADY is all about (ignoring the NT licences, which could be a bonus if this year's drilling turns up anything).

Too bad the US market is going the other way, but ADY is being driven by the looming energy shortage and tightening emissions standards, neither of which looks like going away -- so there's no need to panic and sell. Panic and buy, maybe. :) This time last year we were at 10.5c.

I was thinking OTL what about the huge Magnesium content in the brine? What is the future for that. Somewhere back in the dark dim past I remember tricha?? perhaps mentioning Mg as well as Li and K 1.9Mt apparently

[OutToLunch]

Hi Treetops,

I would need to take more time out to check back over what I have read in the past, but I seem to recall that Mg was a contaminant which needed to be removed from the brine, and that RLL's brine had very low Mg levels which means lower production costs. SQM by contrast I think have to remove more Mg from their brine. I might have got this from Phil Thomas in an old email, can't remember. Can anyone else enlighten us re. Mg in the brines?

[Ttops]

Hi Treetops,

I would need to take more time out to check back over what I have read in the past, but I seem to recall that Mg was a contaminant which needed to be removed from the brine, and that RLL's brine had very low Mg levels which means lower production costs. SQM by contrast I think have to remove more Mg from their brine. I might have got this from Phil Thomas in an old email, can't remember. Can anyone else enlighten us re. Mg in the brines?

Yep You're right. The Mg is removed since it is more insoluble. Nov 07 presentation. Just wondered if there is any use for it or is Mg relatively cheap to produce?

[Hawke]

Bang- I am in at 41.5.

It can sail now back to 45c.

Hawke.

[shasta]

Bang- I am in at 41.5.

It can sail now back to 45c.

Hawke.

Nice work :D

Big test for ADY to hold 40c IMO.

[STRAT]

Youll own em for 38c Hawke :DI may have to take that back.lol Too many want in and staying above 40 looks very likely at this point in the day.
Good on ya Hawke, I was tempted to say you bought too soon earlier. Glad I kept my trap shut now :D
Ooops, Did I just say that out loud?:o

[spruik]

One sell order for 5,000,000 at 42.5c, you'd think the market price is being manipulated.

[Ttops]

Nice work :D

Big test for ADY to hold 40c IMO.

Exactly shasta so i'll try to offend TBE once more by predicting a finish at .43 which would support the theory. ;)

[shasta]

One sell order for 5,000,000 at 42.5c, you'd think the market price is being manipulated.

Yes certainly looks like it's being "capped" at the moment.

I'd be wary if it gets pulled just prior to an announcement.

Is it genuine, thats the big question i'd doubt it

[Ttops]

Yes certainly looks like it's being "capped" at the moment.

I'd be wary if it gets pulled just prior to an announcement.

Is it genuine, thats the big question i'd doubt it
Could you please explain capping shasta? What is the objective. There has only been $1M sold today so far. Will they remove it then buy a bundle in one go?

[STRAT]

Could you please explain capping shasta? What is the objective. There has only been $1M sold today so far. Will they remove it then buy a bundle in one go?Im ready to be corrected here but my understanding is someone buying in continually puts small parcels of shares up for sale at a price that keeps the stock price down and or large parcels for sale just out of the trading price while they buy in. You will see much talk of this on HC but its often ( though not always eh spruik? :p ) a load of bollicks I recon :D

[spruik]

Strat, I have done it myself in the past, usually with intended results. But behold, one day (doing this the other way around) someone sold me all I bid. Took a long time to recover!

I blame the person I was talking to on the phone that time, he called me... since then I don't pick up the phone anymore when doing such things.

Now, who dares to buy that parcel of 5,000,000? :) You'll need to buy an extra million or so before... But I have a hunch it will sure p!ss him/them off severely.

[STRAT]

Strat, I have done it myself in the past, usually with intended results. But behold, one day (doing this the other way around) someone sold me all I bid. Took a long time to recover!

I blame the person I was talking to on the phone that time, he called me... since then I don't pick up the phone anymore when doing such things.

Now, who dares to buy that parcel of 5,000,000? :) You'll need to buy an extra million or so before... But I have a hunch it will sure p!ss him/them off severely.Sorry spruik, Id love to put a :D on ya dial but thats way out of my league:(

[Ttops]

Im ready to be corrected here but my understanding is someone buying in continually puts small parcels of shares up for sale at a price that keeps the stock price down and or large parcels for sale just out of the trading price while they buy in. You will see much talk of this on HC but its often a load of bollicks I recon :D
So STRAT, it is essentially a psychological ploy to depress the price in this case it doesn't appear to be working and could be quite a risk as 42.5c is a good buy price for an institution?

[STRAT]

So STRAT, it is essentially a psychological ploy to depress the price in this case it doesn't appear to be working and could be quite a risk as 42.5c is a good buy price for an institution?Im sticking my neck out here because its something I know little about though I have on the odd occassion put a lot of low ball bids in on an iliquid stock I wanted in on to present the sellers with a low priced buy column. As to the theory of someone capping ADY today. Its usually seen when a stock is already running and not placed for very long otherwize the capper runs the risk of selling their shares. The point is to hold back the run long enough to buy in. To mess with ADY you would have to be a big player and I doubt anyone would have to take that risk today. Its not as if ADY is likely to bolt today.

[shasta]

Im sticking my neck out here because its something I know little about though I have on the odd occassion put a lot of low ball bids in on an iliquid stock I wanted in on to present the sellers with a low priced buy column. As to the theory of someone capping ADY today. Its usually seen when a stock is already running and not placed for very long otherwize the capper runs the risk of selling their shares. The point is to hold back the run long enough to buy in. To mess with ADY you would have to be a big player and I doubt anyone would have to take that risk today. Its not as if ADY is likely to bolt today.

Unless an announcement was "imminent".

This practise can get the capper burnt, as its not normal to show your hand for such a big order, thats why i doubt it's a real bid.

[OutToLunch]

Capping is a great sign that someone wants in -- the opposite is true when fake bids appear in the buy depth. 5 million in the sell depth is a strong sign that a buyer wants in under that price, by flushing out sellers who don't want to wait in line behind such a large order at 42.5 (not that the 5 mill order is genuine of course, or at least we don't think it is).

So I interpret it as another buy signal... anyone want to buy 5 million cheap shares?? :D

[OutToLunch]

Anyone hear a Hoover starting up?? :D

[STRAT]

Unless an announcement was "imminent".

This practise can get the capper burnt, as its not normal to show your hand for such a big order, thats why i doubt it's a real bid.Agreed on both counts. I recon its spruik playing games :D

[STRAT]

Anyone hear a Hoover starting up?? :DLMAO. It aint me all I got is one of those 12v Cigar lighter plug in Auto vacs:D

Gosh, wont The Big Ease be pissed off when he comes back to the ADY thread today :eek:

[OutToLunch]

Yep You're right. The Mg is removed since it is more insoluble. Nov 07 presentation. Just wondered if there is any use for it or is Mg relatively cheap to produce?

Sorry can't really help you there, but maybe this will help: www.intlmag.org/faq.aspx

As far as I can tell, RLL won't be dealing with a lot of Mg and (I think) any Mg removed would probably be discarded.

Maybe the demand for Mg from West Auckland and Lower Hutt might be of interest to Phil though? :p:D

[STRAT]

Maybe the demand for Mg from West Auckland and Lower Hutt might be of interest to Phil though? :p:D
Careful OTL, With a name like Treetops and being an Aucklander you are probably talking to westie :eek:

[Halebop]

It might be comforting to convince yourself that nobody is selling but the share remains in a secondary downtrend even while being supported in the low 40s. A quick look at the share register shows that between August and December there has been continued distribution rather than accumulation of these shares. The top 20 share holders have reduced their holdings by an aggregate 2% over 6 months, not a big deal except that the movement was in the negative. However, the largest group of shareholders via ANZ Nominees have reduced their holdings by a substantial 60m shares. Looking at individual names within the top 20, the line up has largely changed as well. If there was a serious accumulator we'd see it in the numbers.

While price capping techniques may or may not be being applied in this instance, the technique described above is in breach of regulations and any serious large holder will not be risking their wealth for what would amount to capturing a few million shares at a saving of 1 or 2 cents each. That would be nickle and dime stuff for little benefit and much risk.

Assuming the share price largely stays where it is and doesn't drop further (which may invite the prospect of an early recovery), ADY doesn't have much prospect of running until late 2008 or 2009 - assuming they stick to their current lithium development plans without hiccup or delay. They'd be needing some very unexpected iron results to achieve otherwise, an outcome lying firmly in the realms of speculation rather than planning or probability. You could hope for $200 oil as a boost but you'd probably be better off owning an established integrated oil and gas company (if anyone is wondering why ADY appears counter cyclical versus the Dow they need look no further than a service dominated index versus energy related securities and the counter cyclical relationships they share).

Disc: Like the lithium story but even at 50 cents this share is range bound.

[OutToLunch]

Hi Halebop,

Fair enough, however I believe that the market will see ADY quite differently once we have some certainty regarding project funding, Li contracts, long-term Fe contracts, updated JORC estimates of Fe reserves, post-split company valuations and more details on the company split leading up to the EGM -- announcement on all of these are due very soon. In the absence of news we will probably see the sp keep drifting -- even so it has held up remarkably well in a falling market. There are also a lot of holders who have been in since sub 10c so who'd blame a few for locking in some profits, esp if one was nervous about the market over the months ahead. I have been tempted to offload some myself but have decided to sit tight instead.


In any case I am happy to wait until 2009, if that's what it takes -- being patient with ADY is likely to be much more profitable than working for a salary. The word from the coalface (directly from Phil and indirectly from my contact with another large holder) is that everything's on track and there will be more news soon.

'Soon' -- a lovely word, isn't it? Offering all the flexibility and certainty of a horoscope (I'm Aries, by the way). ;)

[Ttops]

Careful OTL, With a name like Treetops and being an Aucklander you are probably talking to westie :eek:
Shore man actually :)
Thanks for the info OTL . The Chinese appear to have cornered the market and kept it down with vast mineral stocks. One day they might screw us with that just like with rare earths and the price rise could make it economical to look at the tailings but not for now.

[spruik]

Yes certainly looks like it's being "capped" at the moment.

I'd be wary if it gets pulled just prior to an announcement.

Is it genuine, thats the big question i'd doubt it

That bugger pulled it and offered 2,000,000 at 0.420 of which some are taken. Would be fun if he dumped them all at market prices, we could have a frenzy. I am ready to buy more.

[Halebop]

That bugger pulled it and offered 2,000,000 at 0.420 of which some are taken. Would be fun if he dumped them all at market prices, we could have a frenzy. I am ready to buy more.

I'm actually surprised it was a genuine sell order. I'd figured it for an "all thumbs" keystroke error.

[spruik]

... and now that he bought enought at 0.415 he pulls the remainder at .420...

[tricha]

Assuming the share price largely stays where it is and doesn't drop further (which may invite the prospect of an early recovery), ADY doesn't have much prospect of running until late 2008 or 2009 - assuming they stick to their current lithium development plans without hiccup or delay. ).

Disc: Like the lithium story but even at 50 cents this share is range bound.

Thats what I thought about ARU last year and when they split of Nupower, it went burko:(

My money is on it taking off when they split, provided the US does not fall over of course.

[Halebop]

My money is on it taking off when they split, provided the US does not fall over of course.

If the size of the font can impact the quantum of the return, then you are almost there.

[JackSprat]

Size does count Halebop:eek:

[Ttops]

Size does count Halebop:eek:
You guys have learned zilch from the cutting tongue of The Big Easy.:mad:

[tricha]

Assuming the share price largely stays where it is and doesn't drop further (which may invite the prospect of an early recovery), ADY doesn't have much prospect of running until late 2008 or 2009 - assuming they stick to their current lithium development plans without hiccup or delay. They'd be needing some very unexpected iron results to achieve otherwise, an outcome lying firmly in the realms of speculation rather than planning or probability. You could hope for $200 oil as a boost but you'd probably be better off owning an established integrated oil and gas company (if anyone is wondering why ADY appears counter cyclical versus the Dow they need look no further than a service dominated index versus energy related securities and the counter cyclical relationships they share).

Disc: Like the lithium story but even at 50 cents this share is range bound.

Sorry Halebop but I believe theres a great future for Lithium and we have hit peak oil.

Admiralty is the only OZ company with Lithium and when one of the major car manufactors buys in, the price will rocket. It could happen tomorrow.
What treetops posted is totally relavent, Lithium is the metal of the future ;) I've researched it and posted on this tread and on the lithium thread quite a bit about it.



This was posted by treetops.

More likely me shasta :o and you ARE much appreciated for your research. But I reckon there is a little truth in what he said so just for The Big Ease I've made a big effort and done some research for you guys. Don't know if this is oldie news repeated and but some late comers might appreciate knowing this is why we are in ADY anyway and expect a big improvement in sp relatively soon:

1
Continental AG To Commence Li-ion Pack Production In 2008

Source: Thomson Financial (http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=57266946656390)
[Jan 01, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Company would not identify automaker who will be using the packs, but GM has contracted with it to produce prototype packs for the Volt




HANNOVER, Germany - Speaking in a recent interview with German publication Auto Motor und Sport, Continental Automotive chief executive Manfred Wennemer said that the company plans to start series production of automotive lithium-ion packs in 2008.

Wennemer did not comment on which car manufacturers will use the battery, it added.

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17063

2
Super-Charging Lithium Batteries



Source: Technology Review (http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785)
[Jan 04, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Nanowire electrodes could improve the performance of electric vehicles.



Existing lithium batteries can enable battery-powered electrical vehicles to travel hundreds of miles on a charge, prompting a race among major automakers to demonstrate that the batteries are safe and durable enough for mass marketing. Battery developers, meanwhile, continue to push lithium performance. Last month, Stanford University materials scientists unveiled a nanowire electrode that could more than triple lithium batteries' energy storage capacity and improve their safety.

The development, reported in the scientific journal Nature Materials, stems from the labs of nanowire innovator Yi Cui and battery expert Robert Huggins at Stanford's Materials Science and Engineering Department. The researchers show that nanowires of silicon just a few atoms across can function as high-capacity electrodes, absorbing and releasing about 10 times more lithium ions than the graphite electrodes that are commonly used today.
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?news...0000/?nlid=785 (http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17095&url=http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785)
Full article
http://www.technologyreview.com/Nano...0000/?nlid=785 (http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/20000/?nlid=785)

http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract...nl0725906.html (http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/nalefd/asap/abs/nl0725906.html)
3
Boston-Power Eyes Batteries for Plug-in Hybrids

Source: CNET News (http://www.news.com/Notebook-battery-maker-gets-charged-up-for-cars/2100-1041_3-6224334.html)
[Jan 04, 2008]


SYNOPSIS: Notebook battery maker now plans to move into making large format lithium-ion batteries that could be used in plug-in hybrid cars.



It looks like it will be a busy year for Boston-Power.


The lithium-ion battery maker has raised $45 million in a third round of funding. It also has signed its second contract manufacturing deal, an agreement with China's GP Batteries, which will give it the capacity to churn out a million batteries a month by the end of 2008. In all, Boston-Power has raised more than $68 million in funding.





http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17088

[Halebop]

No need to apologise Tricha. Lithium is not the metal of the future. It is the metal of the now. The developments you listed represent incremental demands on potential supply. Looking forward into the next 10 years, they are simply more of the same in terms of the last 10 years - steady rates of growth stemming from innovators finding new uses for an existing technology (the classic form of innovation). This is a great thing but it is not an Eldorado. Its just a business model / opportunity changing and trending according to demographic and technological progression.

What makes Lithium profitable for ADY? Actually we don't know because their model is as yet unproven, right from extracting the stuff to offering a large new supply to the market place. The shares however may well be profitable before the company is, but talking about it is a figurative speculation while buying the securities is literal speculation. Given the degree of speculation I prefer to see the proof of the pudding from an inflated share price rather rely upon the hot air generated from forum posts to do my inflating. The technicals just aren't greatly compelling right now. The fundamentals don't yet exist. The hyperbole is all we seem to have.

I'll just let the technicals confirm for me later on. This will mean I miss out on a proportion of early gains but it also means I'll miss out on a share of losses should things go pear shaped.

Disc: (again..read slowly) I LIKE the lithium story but do not hold

[dicey]

No setbacks for the company thus far. Maybe they're building up.:)

[tricha]

1 - The developments you listed represent incremental demands on potential supply. Looking forward into the next 10 years, they are simply more of the same in terms of the last 10 years - steady rates of growth stemming from innovators finding new uses for an existing technology (the classic form of innovation). This is a great thing but it is not an Eldorado.

2 - The technicals just aren't greatly compelling right now. The fundamentals don't yet exist. The hyperbole is all we seem to have.

3 -I'll just let the technicals confirm for me later on. This will mean I miss out on a proportion of early gains but it also means I'll miss out on a share of losses should things go pear shaped.

Disc: (again..read slowly) I LIKE the lithium story but do not hold

1 - Lithium use is going to go up exponentially, electric cars will see to that. The oil price will ensure it.
(Peak oil is here, every day the story is getting louder and louder, Today - India, Predicting $150 Oil, Woos Chevron, Exxon (Update3 )

2 - They already have iron ore cash flow and like I said, one of the major vechicle manufactors will secure their Lithium and that will kick the next stage of Lithium processing.

3 - Unfortunately if you want a multi bagger, yes there is risk attached,
but I'm looking at the big picture and the future.

4 - So far Admirality have done what they have said they are going to do,
management are on to it.

5 - This was an extremely smart move. Should remove a big part of the soverign and enviromental risk


ASX Company Announcement

1 of 1

Admiralty Resources NL

ACN 010 195 972

Rincon Lithium Limited

ACN 088 854 639
Level 14, 200 Queen Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
[t] +61-3-96701838
[f] +61-3-9670 1898
[w] www.ady.com.au

11 December 2007
Company Announcements Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street

SYDNEY NSW 2000
KEY EXECUTIVE APPOINTMENT – DR R ALONSO - HEAD OF EXPLORATION

The Directors are pleased to announce that Dr Ricardo Alonso has joined the staff of Rincon Lithium
Limited to manage the geological development of the existing mineral
deposits at the Rincon Salar, Rio Grande, Rapeh, and Luciana mines and
develop other mineral exploration opportunities.
Previously he held the prestigious positions of Secretary of Mining of the
Salta Provence, and Mining and Energy Minister and was responsible for the
orderly exploitation and management of mineral resources in the region. His
responsibilities included technical and legislative advice, management of
mining exploitation claims and activities and mining related infrastructure. Dr Alonso is without doubt
the foremost geologist in the Puna/Rincon/Salta region and has an extensive knowledge of brines and
salars in addition to base metals geology.
Dr Alonso has published and had peer reviewed, 254 papers in international mining and geology
journals, and has written over 1100 scientific articles for various journals and magazines. He is a Fellow
of the Economic Geology Society, Fellow of the American Geological Society, has been awarded the
Hussein Prize to Science, ADEPA Prize to scientific journalism, and the winner of the prestigious
Argentinean Mining Prize of 2007. He has been a member of staff at the National University of Salta.
Ricardo is also a master connoisseur of good wines, of which Argentina has an abundant supply.
Admiralty Resources NL is delighted to have Ricardo as a member of the management and technical
team.

Phillip Thomas

Executive Director – Admiralty Resources
Managing Director – Rincon Lithium Limited
[t] +61-3-96701838
[f] +61-3-9670 1898
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au

[Ttops]

Halebop
The chemistry of evaporation, relative solubilities of alkali metals is incredibly simple. A high school student could understand it. It does not require a doctrate imo. You are clawing for a needle in a haystack to find that they have not evaluated the process. :p
But a good try. ;)

Converting Lithium carbonate is someone elses job to make the batteries. People have been doing this type of process since salt was needed.
Lake Grassmere near Blenheim is NZ's basic version :)

You Like it and want a better entry point? Or will you wait for it to be "proven" I'm afraid the chemistry is too basic so that leaves something else. What might you be thinking of there? If it is the metal of now even better but it hasn't taken off yet but has been given a huge boost this year imo with increasing oil prices. Currently it looks the best bet for the future but will always be the metal for portable situations due to its high storage/ density and high output voltage at 3V imo.

[Halebop]

Nobody yet knows the rate of evaporation - that is why they are constructing a pilot. If it was a given they would have the money already and would be contructing the full plant. The rate determines how many ponds, how much water is required, how much overhead and capex is generated/required and how much product they have to sell. These in turn determines the profit to be made. If the rate was for some reason too slow, the project would be uneconomic without the introduction of a new technology or workaround such as shipping the raw brines. That evaporation will or will not occur is hardly what I'm suggesting. That the project be economic or not is the question (I too favour the affimative but the market will prefer to know the same as well). So that it could cost an extra $30m in projected Capex (or $30m less!) or that it be unusually profitable (or abysmally unprofitable) is still yet to be demonstrated.

To suggest that a school science student understands the process and that the project is therefore a certainty represents a similar level of financial acumen to the average school student too.

[OutToLunch]

As far as I remember the evaporation rates have already been measured and have been shown to be very high (around 6mm/day if I recall rightly). Given the geographic environment the salar is located in (Andean altiplano), those high rates are likely to be perennial (and this in a place where the temp is usually pretty low, thanks to the altitude). I have been to the Chilean/Bolivian altiplano region and can attest to the extreme dryness of that kind of place.

The pilot plant is all about verifying the entire production process, however, not just the evaporation part -- there's no point in spending millions building the full-scale plant if it turns out that there's a fundamental problem in the production process that requires the plant to be modified, or which prevents the Li from being extracted economically at all. So late April (expected date of 1st production of Li from the pilot plant) is a critical milestone that will give certainty to the market (we hope) that the process is indeed viable, and (we hope even more) very profitable. ADY has some very talented, well-qualified and locally experienced people working on the project so I am comfortable that they will be able to come up with the goods.

However the market will want to see certainty of this, and that won't happen until we have a proven production process, signed Li contracts and secured project funding. After all these have been given the big tick, though, expect lots. ;)

[Ttops]

Nobody yet knows the rate of evaporation - that is why they are constructing a pilot. If it was a given they would have the money already and would be contructing the full plant. The rate determines how many ponds, how much water is required, how much overhead and capex is generated/required and how much product they have to sell. These in turn determines the profit to be made. If the rate was for some reason too slow, the project would be uneconomic without the introduction of a new technology or workaround such as shipping the raw brines. That evaporation will or will not occur is hardly what I'm suggesting. That the project be economic or not is the question (I too favour the affimative but the market will prefer to know the same as well). So that it could cost an extra $30m in projected Capex (or $30m less!) or that it be unusually profitable (or abysmally unprofitable) is still yet to be demonstrated.

To suggest that a school science student understands the process and that the project is therefore a certainty represents a similar level of financial acumen to the average school student too.
Halebop.. let me explain what I mean.

What I am suggesting is the chemical equations that represent the processes would easily be able to be followed. There is no complex chemistry involved believe me.
A 7 Chemistry student would follow the solubility side and a 5 Chem student the equations involved. Evaporation is 95% of the process and is a physical not chemical change. Nowhere did I mention Science students. After all I would not expect an accountancy student to understand.
However I agree that you have vastly more understanding of the business process and profitability. You are right in that respect for sure so everything else I agree with.
The chemical processes I maintain are based on the most basic chemistry easily able to be followed and will not flinch one bit from that statement. As for not checking out the evaporation rate. Well err...We're all could be stuffed if they haven't but again its surely the first thing that they would do. :eek:
Dam good post Halebop.. much admired hero:)

[Ttops]

Could somebody explain the rationale in splitting before April when the success of Li salts process will largely be known? Pros and cons.

[OutToLunch]

I understand that up to 50% of future Li production is currently being tendered out (to ~15 potential buyers), with tenders closing in late Feb -- presumably prior to the demerger being completed. This appears to assume that a successful ramp up to full production is a given, risky as that might seem. Presumably we will know more about project financing (both Fe and Li) before then too.

I can't help thinking that the announcement of the demerger in the first place could have been prompted by rumours of a demerger hitting the AFR, which then forced ADY to come clean with their plans. Why else would they announce such a move with no firm dates and so many details not finalised at the time. Beats me. :confused:

[STRAT]

Could somebody explain the rationale in splitting before April when the success of Li salts process will largely be known? Pros and cons.I would suggest its more about internal company structure than progress towards production or a message to market. Being organized before they are too busy to get organized if you like.

[shasta]

Could somebody explain the rationale in splitting before April when the success of Li salts process will largely be known? Pros and cons.

PT said the rationale was to split the company in 2 to enhance shareholder value & have two separate entities with separate boards to focus on each project as they both come into production. (Same way NZO split out PRC before first production).

Basically the companies are to fund themselves (not without risk) & by doing so make themselves targets for predators.

The asian steel companies may want the iron but won't want the Lithium etc & as a Lithium company will command a higher P/E than an Iron Ore company, having both projects under ADY was not accurately valuing the two projects, at least in the eyes of the sharemarket.

I had posted on H/C suggesting ADY would split long before it was rumoured & did email PT if it was a viable option!

Remember this is an Australian company with projects in Australia, Argentina & Chile & would be spreading management/staff pretty thin having it all under one umbrella. :cool:

[STRAT]

Youll own em for 38c Hawke :DWe bounced off 39.5 quite a few times today. Ady will be available below 40c during the next few weeks I think.

[Ttops]

PT said the rationale was to split the company in 2 to enhance shareholder value & have two separate entities with separate boards to focus on each project as they both come into production. (Same way NZO split out PRC before first production).

Basically the companies are to fund themselves (not without risk) & by doing so make themselves targets for predators.

The asian steel companies may want the iron but won't want the Lithium etc & as a Lithium company will command a higher P/E than an Iron Ore company, having both projects under ADY was not accurately valuing the two projects, at least in the eyes of the sharemarket.

I had posted on H/C suggesting ADY would split long before it was rumoured & did email PT if it was a viable option!

Remember this is an Australian company with projects in Australia, Argentina & Chile & would be spreading management/staff pretty thin having it all under one umbrella. :cool:
Thanks guys. This seems to be what you are saying shasta.
Pros: enhances sp especially RLL and more efficient structures.
Cons: More likely to be taken over (possibly before full value has been proven in the case of RLL). Increases the risk associated with RLL as not supported by ADY money flow.

I guess if you are in a hurry to see sp increase it looks very positive.
It can't come soon enough imo. ;):D

[spruik]

Youll own em for 38c Hawke :D

Hawke, after that disasterous purchase at 41.5 get ready for that other purchase at 38c...

[Hawke]

Yes I could have got them at my flippant remark at 38.5c.

But now Im in I can wait for the next few months of major SP increases!

41.5- me in.

Hawke.

[Ttops]

Hawke, after that disasterous purchase at 41.5 get ready for that other purchase at 38c...
Hawke is patient. He'll wait. 37 pehaps? All those holiday stop losses will trigger around there. Now that there is an extreme cold snap approaching from Helsinki ;)

[JackSprat]

Could somebody explain the rationale in splitting before April when the success of Li salts process will largely be known? Pros and cons.

There's a bit more to it than meets the eye but this is the part I like. This from the Demerger Q&A pp on the ADY web site:

Q: What is the process for the Admiralty Resources demerger and how will my share holding be affected?

Step 1: Consolidation of Admiralty Resources (ADY) shares
Admiralty Resources (ADY) shares will be consolidated on the basis of 1 new ADY share for every 3.47215 existing shares held.
As an example; at the time of the demerger a shareholder has 100,000 ADY shares trading at 40 cents. After consolidation their holding would equate to approximately 28,800 shares trading at $1.39.
Step 2: Issue of Rincon Lithium shares
All shareholders will then be issued 1 Rincon Lithium share for every consolidated ADY share they hold.
This will occur after the experts report, director’s report, prospectus for the demerger, cost base for Admiralty Resources and Rincon Lithium shares are calculated and an EGM (Extraordinary General Meeting) is held.

[STRAT]

Wow , back to the price I sold at last September:eek:

[shasta]

Wow , back to the price I sold at last September:eek:

If it drops much further i may sell some of my beloved Uran shares to "top up" again.

The SP is getting unjustifiably lashed & getting ridiculous.

What a bargin for those buying at these levels! :)

[STRAT]

If it drops much further i may sell some of my beloved Uran shares to "top up" again.

The SP is getting unjustifiably lashed & getting ridiculous.

What a bargin for those buying at these levels! :)Ive had my finger on the buy button all afternoon but if the DOW has another paddy tonight they could be even cheaper tomorrow with some traders not wanting to hold over the weekend :p

Also ADY got hammered in the after auction yesterday :D mmm timing is everything eh?

[spruik]

Ive had my finger on the buy button all afternoon but if the DOW has another paddy tonight they could be even cheaper tomorrow with some traders not wanting to hold over the weekend :p

Also ADY got hammered in the after auction yesterday :D mmm timing is everything eh?

Thinking of the possibility of a panick sell tomorrow - those guys not at the screen all day will get a little shock.

Don't expect a repeat buy at 0.20 but at 32 I'll be in heeps more.

[STRAT]

Thinking of the possibility of a panick sell tomorrow - those guys not at the screen all day will get a little shock.

Don't expect a repeat buy at 0.20 but at 32 I'll be in heeps more.Yup. Gonna go stick my finger on my guitar instead :D

[spruik]

Yup. Gonna go stick my finger on my guitar instead :D

Strat, you should provide a link in your avatar to whatever you're playing there... so we can hear you. But I'm a bit worried about you puffing fags! :) Might even join you with my bass guitar (needs brushing up).

[Hawke]

Big day for ADY today- those that slump with the DOW must rise with a DOW.

Lets see .45c today!

Hawke is in!

[slam]

Big day for ADY today- those that slump with the DOW must rise with a DOW.

Lets see .45c today!

Hawke is in!

So what happened yesterday?:rolleyes:

[Hawke]

ADY is usually a news fest with all the projects it has on the go and traders love this.

No news for a while and the traders become bored- and go away.

News will be rampant during this quarter- so hold tight is my advice.
The Boss is back on deck next week......

Hawke

[spruik]

Big day for ADY today- those that slump with the DOW must rise with a DOW.

Lets see .45c today!

Hawke is in!

Oh I see there's hope... 1 buyer for 3,000 willing to pay up to 0.450...

[STRAT]

ADY is usually a news fest with all the projects it has on the go and traders love this.

No news for a while and the traders become bored- and go away.



HawkeSomething else I think mate. Someone is dumping.

[seaosh]

Something else I think mate. Someone is dumping.

Exactly. . .

Noticed tiny buy orders at high prices on open the last couple of days. Is that somebody trying to fiddle the price on open so they can sell? Seems more likely than a small but super keen buyer anyway.

I've stayed in but the action the last few days has been a bit concerning.

However, I still reckon patience will pay off.

[STRAT]

Hi Spruik,
Im not concerned just wanting to time my next purchase well ;)

Pity you live in Aussie Spruik. I regularly go to Jams and keen bass players are in short supply. Some guitarist usually draws a short straw and ends up pretending to fill the void.

[spruik]

Hi Spruik,
Im not concerned just wanting to time my next purchase well ;)

Pity you live in Aussie Spruik. I regularly go to Jams and keen base players are in short supply. Some guitarist usually draws a short straw and ends up pretending to fill the void.

Used to live in ChristChurch, 1962-1965 and visited many times since. You get all the chicks as a muzo! :)

[STRAT]

You get all the chicks as a muzo! :)Spoken like a true bass player. You guys always have an ulterior motive and are always lookin for maximum gains for minimum input;):p:D

[spruik]

Shasta, you didn't break that other leg today??? :D

[STRAT]

Anyone else thinking of buying today or waiting to see how far she goes? :D

Stop losses being triggered now I suspect

[OutToLunch]

If I had any spare cash I'd be thinking hard about buying now. The current share price is ridiculously low and I think it's more about a lack of updates and the current market climate than anything else. Volumes traded are low so it's not exactly a stampede for the exits.

The big drivers for Li -- high oil prices and climate change-related emissions policies -- are not going away no matter what the market does in the months ahead. Chindia will keep swallowing up iron ore like there's no tomorrow, and agriculture (staple foods, biofuel cropping) will continue to push up the price of potash.

I think those selling now either have to (margin calls) or are panicking without seeing the bigger picture. What I shame I'm already fully invested -- it's a screaming bargain right now.

[Ttops]

If I had any spare cash I'd be thinking hard about buying now. The current share price is ridiculously low and I think it's more about a lack of updates and the current market climate than anything else. Volumes traded are low so it's not exactly a stampede for the exits.

The big drivers for Li -- high oil prices and climate change-related emissions policies -- are not going away no matter what the market does in the months ahead. Chindia will keep swallowing up iron ore like there's no tomorrow, and agriculture (staple foods, biofuel cropping) will continue to push up the price of potash.

I think those selling now either have to (margin calls) or are panicking without seeing the bigger picture. What I shame I'm already fully invested -- it's a screaming bargain right now.
Ditto OTL
You put it down to lack of updates and current market climate but also its pretty low volume too and indicative of the post xmas period which will hot up soon. With more cashed up buyers it won't plummet as far? You and most of the posters including me are fully bloated so unless shasta succumbs to a fit of bargain hunting and he's in the cautious mode we would have to rely on Hawke or Strat to hold the fort. But even they are watching and waiting for the real bargain around 32-33?:eek:

[Halebop]

It's the mark of the end of a bull run that investors be fully invested. Its a fairly logical cycle that there be no available risk capital left to invest at the end. Only the future will tell us if this is a short term correction or an end to the bull. My cash will remain out of the market until the trend presents a more profitable and higher probability opportunity. At the moment the trend is no bull's friends.

[spruik]

I am watching and will buy at 32c.

[Serpie]

I've just doubled up on my ADY.

Everyone's started talking about panic, and stopped talking about lithium. Happy to hold these ones for a couple of years.

[STRAT]

It's the mark of the end of a bull run that investors be fully invested. Its a fairly logical cycle that there be no available risk capital left to invest at the end. .I didnt realize OutToLunch's portfolio was that big:eek: :D:D:D

[STRAT]

I've just doubled up on my ADY.

Everyone's started talking about panic, and stopped talking about lithium. Happy to hold these ones for a couple of years.Still holding my cash. Just. Lets see what monday brings.

[Brut]

I've just doubled up on my ADY.

Everyone's started talking about panic, and stopped talking about lithium. Happy to hold these ones for a couple of years.

Serpie, I can't believe you just said that you will hold these for a couple of years? I know you very well & you get bored easily with your shares if they are not moving up.

I think you forgot for a minute that you are a trader & not a investor!

Anyway, best of luck. I still have my bid in & will wait to see what happens next week. I think the ASX will find support at 5800 then hopefully bounce.

[Ttops]

I've just doubled up on my ADY.

Everyone's started talking about panic, and stopped talking about lithium. Happy to hold these ones for a couple of years.
6 to 9 mths if Bush does his best for the party otherwise yep 2-3 years but if I wanted to stay invested in any share in 2-3 years this would be it. Will put in a buy order at 32c as on holiday for a bit and reckon even Halebop could be tempted around there. :eek: There is always a bit in reserve for a good share. See you guys when the Fed lowers the cash rate to 3.75%?

[Halebop]

Will put in a buy order at 32c as on holiday for a bit and reckon even Halebop could be tempted around there. :eek:

:p

I like ADY but will just follow the trend on this one. If it bottoms out at 32 you will almost certainly buy at a better price than me. :)

[Ttops]

:p

I like ADY but will just follow the trend on this one. If it bottoms out at 32 you will almost certainly buy at a better price than me. :)
A long shot if stop losses and who knows what bad news occurs.:D

[AMR]

Same - Like Li but clearly international markets are tanking at the moment so I will hold off. If the January effect proves true this year then I might have to wait a fair bit.

It looks like another down day on the Dow - Futures are currently down 51 points.

[Damo79]

I probably won't be lucky enough to pick the bottom, but I'm back in today for 36.5 cents. Buying on fundamentals, so not too worried about he short term trend. I've done extremely well on ADY in the past. Last sold out in Oct for about 50c, thinking it was getting a little ahead of itself. But having the SP down 30% from then, with no bad news and things seemingly progressing as planned, I decided it's just tipped into my buy range again.

Hope it can ride the financial market storm ok in the near future.

Damo

[soulman]

Funny that you say down day AMR. The Dow has risen 2 100+ points in 2 days but because our market did not follow, it does seems like ANOTHER down day.

I am all about long-term now, although there are stocks I am not comfortable with such as MFS.

[Serpie]

Serpie, I can't believe you just said that you will hold these for a couple of years? I know you very well & you get bored easily with your shares if they are not moving up

Brutus,
You're selling me short brother! I've had my core holdings of NWE and MRX for a couple of years - untouched. I like to hold on to stocks that don't go anywhere! ADY could well be in that basket for a while.

I've given up on buying shares, and am now buying little bits of companies instead, and I like having a little bit of ADY.

Will it go lower? Probably. But I'm in no hurry, and am happy buying at these levels. Actually, with an average now of about 39.5c, I'm reasonably comfortable with where ADY is trading at the moment. Ask me again next Friday!

[OutToLunch]

I agree that the bull market is in big trouble, there is little doubt about that. But while we might see a rough year (or more), the longer term drivers for the Li market are still going to be there. Especially now that the major oil companies (ExxonMobil as an example) and major car manufacturers (Toyota, Mitsubishi, etc) are embracing Li-ion battery technology. That's why the coming recession doesn't bother me too much -- I will just need to hold on for longer to see the return on my ADY investment. Li-ion battery technology is on the up and up, as is the market for it, just as ADY plans to start producing 20% of the world's supply of the essential ingredient. If ADY starts falling back towards what I paid for them (just over 10c) then I will start to worry, but the fundamentals (once confirmed by contracts, funding etc) are almost certainly too strong for that to happen.

The potash story seems to be getting going too but I'll have to ask Phil some more about what he has planned for that, if anything, and at what rate he anticipates producing/selling it at. A nice no-cost by-product to have to deal with in any case. :)

[Serpie]

From http://realdealfinancial.blogspot.com/2007/12/potash-prices-to-soar-in-2008.html

Sunday, December 30, 2007
Potash prices to soar in 2008
Report on Business:

Forget oil or gold. Fertilizer is where it's at when it comes to hot commodities. Bank of Nova Scotia recently named potash, an ingredient in fertilizer, as one of its favourite picks for 2008.
In November, 2007, spot potash prices in Vancouver climbed to a record $265 (U.S.) per tonne, and they're expected to surge to more than $325 in early 2008, according to Scotiabank.

Report on Business:

With phosphate prices shooting up to $580 (U.S.) a tonne now from $460-to-$480 in early November, UBS analyst Brian MacArthur pushed Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.'s estimated 2008 profit up to $5.83 a share from $4.99. And he raised his price target to $155 from $135. His new 2008 estimate is 85 per cent higher than his profit estimate of $3.15 a share for this year.

ADY resources 50.8mt x $US265/t= $US13.46b.

- end

And this is just a by-product for ADY.

Sorry to get off topic and talk about fundamentals. As you were.

[shasta]

Shasta, you didn't break that other leg today??? :D


I have had some problems today, requiring medical assistance, am ok though, sorry for the fall today folks :(

[Ttops]

From http://realdealfinancial.blogspot.com/2007/12/potash-prices-to-soar-in-2008.html

Sunday, December 30, 2007
Potash prices to soar in 2008
Report on Business:

Forget oil or gold. Fertilizer is where it's at when it comes to hot commodities. Bank of Nova Scotia recently named potash, an ingredient in fertilizer, as one of its favourite picks for 2008.
In November, 2007, spot potash prices in Vancouver climbed to a record $265 (U.S.) per tonne, and they're expected to surge to more than $325 in early 2008, according to Scotiabank.

Report on Business:

With phosphate prices shooting up to $580 (U.S.) a tonne now from $460-to-$480 in early November, UBS analyst Brian MacArthur pushed Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.'s estimated 2008 profit up to $5.83 a share from $4.99. And he raised his price target to $155 from $135. His new 2008 estimate is 85 per cent higher than his profit estimate of $3.15 a share for this year.

ADY resources 50.8mt x $US265/t= $US13.46b.

- end

And this is just a by-product for ADY.

Sorry to get off topic and talk about fundamentals. As you were.
Decided to withdraw the order now serpie due to your post:mad: Lost a chance of a real bargain. Reckon people like you just love spoiling others fun. :rolleyes: But fundamentals don't seem to matter a damn at present. Sentiment...rising interest rates on mortgages ... bulging credit card debt... Best time to buy when others are depressed? :confused: Bring it on. Just changed my mind again.

[Serpie]

Plenty of room for us bi-polars Treetops!

There's two schools of thought:
1: If you fight the market you'll end up with a bloody nose (which is someones tag line I believe) so follow the herd.
or
2: To succeed you must be prepared to go against the market, ignore emotion and pack mentality, do your research and stick to your plan.

The second one is much more exciting! I'm not good enough at it yet to make money out of it, and it's a pretty steep learning curve, but hopefully one day I'll get there.

I've been watching ADY for 6 months, waiting for a chance to get in at these levels, so now that it's here I'm not going to sit on my hands.

INL is next.

[STRAT]

OK who took the ADY thread away and left this one in its place?.:eek: and whats all this talk about having to leave em in the bottom drawer for years? Looks like a bargin in the making to me:D

[Serpie]

Now who was it that said on 17/12/07:


ADY is fine in the bottom drawer I recon.

Sorry Strat - you asked for that one!

[Ttops]

shasta
You must be in a bad way given the malaise today but the dow rose and oil fell so it probably wasn't all your doing. Look after yourself and this good company please while I'm away tramping for a couple of weeks in the south island.:cool::cool::cool::D Hope its :) and I come back to some good news.

[RossT]

Surely Ady has to be way undervalued at todays close giving it a market cap of A$354m ? I have some Pike river, and that has a market cap at todays close of $214m. So roughly adjusting for the currency, 2 Pike River mines = ADY ?

[STRAT]

Now who was it that said on 17/12/07:



Sorry Strat - you asked for that one!Good on ya Serpie but you dont quite get the cigar. There is a significant difference between being happy leaving em in the bottom drawer ( confidence in ADY's long term prospects ) and having to leave em in the bottom drawer ( not confident in ADY's short to medium term prospects );)

Your move:D

[Serpie]

I think ADY will be just fine in drawers 1, 2 & 4 (ignore the 3rd drawer down, because that's for things like old batteries, matches, little screwdrivers, cellphone chargers etc).

Drawer No 1 (2 to 4 weeks):
Rumour has it that Philip Thomas is back from holidays on Monday. With ADY's record of market updates, the recent SP slippage, perhaps an update is overdue? Lots happening at the pilot plant, and the January clock is ticking before the February demerger.
Also Santa Barbara expansion completion (Jan 08) and shipping commencing (Feb 08)

Drawer No 2 (2 to 4 months):
Between now and first sales in April we have further updates to come on the pilot plant, results of the 10% lithium tender, and the demerger itself.

Drawer No 4 (bottom drawer - 2 to 4 years):
RLL providing 20% of the world's lithium, as well as potash, magnesium, sodium carbonate, and sodium suphate. And ADY's other mining activities (if you want to hold on to the ADY content after demerger) at Santa Barbara, Bulman and Pyke Hill.

I'm pleased to be one of the owners of ADY, and am looking forward to the road ahead, regardless of short term SP fluctuations.

Whaddayareckon Strat?

[tricha]

Top Stuff Serpie, u got it in a nutshell!
Put it another way, I could not got close to what u presented, top stuff.

[Hawke]

Just think of the reaction- when perhaps GM, Ford, Honda, Mitsubishi, or Toyota take prominence in an Announement potentially to come out from Ady??

Holding tight and will ADD-ADY when cash allows.

Hawke.

[STRAT]

http://www.havanacigars.co.nz/webfiles/HavanaHouseCigarsNZ/webpages/images/31488/home_primary1.jpg (http://www.havanacigars.co.nz/formwcs0131489/contact_us.html)
Serpie, this is for you ;)


By the way hows that Gilmour coming along?

[Serpie]

A stogie from a blues man - high praise indeed.
And thanks Tricha. Are you heading over the hill for the ChCh meet? See you on the ChCh thread if you're coming.

Have a good day!

[OutToLunch]

Posted by 2ic on Hotcopper. Ominous reading which would explain the delays in financing. A development to keep a close eye on!! :eek:

>>A new 10% export tax on minerals (see excerp below) has cast real doubt over Rincon Solars viability and risk regards financing (ie selling forward 10% of production unsecured to finance mine development etc). Essentially this tax is a 10% NET royalty regardless of profitability and drastically reduces the projects NPV and increases financial risk for project financiers.

If cost are higher than expected and/or prodcution lower then after 10% NET royalty project could operate at a loss with no way of paying back development debt. No wonder buyers (and probably financiers) are standing aside until clearer resolution of the tax and any court challenges are reached. In current enviroment, despite what management might say to hold up share price, Rincon may end up being financed through significant cheaper equity issue and onerous convertible debt.


article Dec 6th but highly relevant to ADY!


BUENOS AIRES -(Dow Jones)- By placing a new export tax on mineral exports despite a 30-year guarantee of tax stability, Argentina has shattered confidence in tax stability, which will discourage future mine investment, industry players said Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the mining chamber CAEM said that customs agents demanded the new taxes on Rio Tinto PLC's (RTP) Borax Argentina S.A., Procesadora de Boratos Argentinos S.A., Minera del Altiplano FMC and Xstrata PLC's (XTA.LN) Minera Alumbrera Ltd.

The companies previously had received letters from the Mining Ministry certifying that they would enjoy tax stability for 30 years, but this assurance was cast in doubt by the new tax.

Some companies immediately announced that they would challenge the new tax in court.
Borax Argentina is in the process of asking for an injunction after customs agents demanded a 10% export tax payment for its latest borate shipment.

"We will argue to the court that a note cannot modify a law," mine director Alberto Trunzo told local industry magazine Mining Press.

However, other companies were waiting for more clarity before reacting.
"We have a stability agreement at Veladero...(but) are monitoring and assessing developments," Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) spokesman Vincent Borg said. Barrick operates the Veladero gold mine in Argentina and is developing the $2.4 billion Pascua-Lama gold mine project straddling the Chile-Argentina border.

Said the CEO of a company involved in exploration in Argentina and Chile: "This makes Argentina much less attractive for foreign investors. The effect won't be immediate, as companies have budgeted programs...The effects will show up initially with decreased exploration investment.

"This is a real problem for Argentina. There isn't a lot of mining investment in Argentina relative to its mineral potential," the CEO said.

The CEO asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Lower margins due to the export tax will also push companies to mine higher grade ores, leaving behind more of the lower grade ores.

"Effectively this shortens the mine life, so in the end the government will get less revenue, less employment, etc.," the CEO said.

[STRAT]

Ouch!!!:eek:
Heres a bit more from the Australian
RIO Tinto and Xstrata are taking legal action to prevent Argentina's government from imposing new duties on mineral exports.
Argentina's government in December announced new duties on mineral exports to raise revenues, but the mining giants say the move violates an agreement freezing the rate for existing projects.

"Rio Tinto Minerals in Argentina is one of a number of locally based companies which have requested an injunction to stop measures proposed by the Argentine government to raise the excise tax on minerals," said Nick Cobban, a spokesman for Rio (ASX: RIO: quote (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/markets/reuters/0,,,00.html?isDetails=no&searchstr=rio.ax)).

Xstrata spokesman Claire Divver confirmed the Anglo-Swiss miner also sought to block the higher fees.

"We continue to be hopeful that we will reach a solution through dialogue with the government...but in the meantime it has been necessary for us to protect our short term interests and we have had to commence legal proceedings and reserve our legal rights," Ms Divver said.

It wasn't immediately which other companies were joining the complaint.

The two miners had already complained that the duties undermined stability and regulatory certainty for long-term investments in Argentina.

Argentina's government in early December announced a series of economic measures, including the duties on mineral exports.

Eurasia Group analyst Daniel Kerner said the taxes on mining exports highlighted that export taxes will remain a key pillar of the government's fiscal strategy.

"They are not only easier to collect and justify politically given high international prices, but the government considers export taxes especially attractive since they excluded from the revenue sharing agreement that governs fiscal relations between the central government and the provinces," he said in a research note.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23036728-643,00.html

[OutToLunch]

Ouch, alright.

However at this stage it is not a new law but an imposition by Customs, which flies in the face of letters previously issued from the Mining Ministry assuring 30 years of tax stability. So we can only hope that it will be settled positively, and quickly. Mr Alonso will need to work his magic for ADY, with his Govt background.

Otherwise, we will need to pin our hopes on the profitability of Rincon being easily able to absorb this new tax. Still, it's an unwelcome development which I will be watching closely.

I wonder if the CEO quoted was Phil?

[OutToLunch]

Just saw your new post Strat -- looks like it is a central govt thing after all, which is not good reading. Thankfully it's only a 10% tax but even so it takes the gloss off things if it can't be resolved. Some words from Phil on this matter will be needed to clear things up....

[STRAT]

Some words from Phil on this matter will be needed to clear things up....Hi OTL in your experience Does Phil wear glasses with rose tinted lenses when reporting on this kind of stuff? Either way an ann by ADY on this is not going to have a positive effect

[Serpie]

It's actually a law:

Law No. 24,196 (May 1993) instituted a new framework for investment in the mining sector. To be eligible for these benefits, individuals and corporations must be domiciled in Argentina and register with the National Mining Bureau. The main benefits available to investors are: • Guaranteed tax stability (in taxes and tax rates) for 30 years. • Stable foreign exchange and customs treatment (with the exception of exchange rates and tax reimbursements, drawbacks and refunds linked to exports). • The income tax deductibility of the full amount of prospecting and exploration outlays, as well as costs related to other work undertaken to determine the technical and economic feasibility of mining operations (notwithstanding the ability to deduct the expenses themselves as such or treat them as depreciable investments). • The income tax deductibility of an environmental conservation allowance of up to a maximum of 5% of the operating costs for extraction and smelting, provided that the allowance is used before the completion of the productive cycle.

- end.

I have no knowledge of Argentine politics, so I'm not sure how "lawful" their laws are. It would seem like a bad idea to attract foreign investments with 30 years guarantees, and then flip flop after the foreign companies are entrenched. Shortsighted.

How did OUR lithium get into THEIR water anyway?

[OutToLunch]

Hi OTL in your experience Does Phil wear glasses with rose tinted lenses when reporting on this kind of stuff? Either way an ann by ADY on this is not going to have a positive effect

Hi Strat,

I hope not -- I'd rather that he explains it and its implications for ADY warts and all rather than delaying some of the negativity surrounding this issue to a later date by putting a positive spin on it. This is the first real negative news that I've come across so it remains to be seen whether Phil is a rosy glasses man or not. We will no doubt see before too long.

Hopefully the sp, being so low already, can absorb some of this.. otherwise we could see further falls ahead until this is resolved. :(

[Serpie]

Hopefully the sp, being so low already, can absorb some of this.. otherwise we could see further falls ahead until this is resolved. :(

The ADY SP has dropped 27% since this was first announced on 06/12/07. I'd say a fair chunk of the risk is already factored in to the current SP. Look at the Merrill Lynch activity between 07/12/07 and 12/12/07. Dropped 60M shares.

[STRAT]

If its a law then the Government/Customs have broken it. To argue that one in court will take a while I would imagine. This cloud will be above us for some time. I suspect adjusting the fundamentals to include the worse case scenario might be the best option. Any Fundies want to comment?

[OutToLunch]

The ADY SP has dropped 27% since this was first announced on 06/12/07. I'd say a fair chunk of the risk is already factored in to the current SP.

That's my feeling too. Not forgetting that Rincon revenues were originally budgeted with Li prices at around US$3500/tonne and we're now looking at a Li price roughly twice that (although costs have probably risen to offset that a bit). Anyway hopefully in the worst case scenario we're still looking at a very profitable Li/KCl operation, albeit 10% less so.

No doubt this new development will need to be spelled out clearly wrt. the valuation reports and in any case well before the demerger. So we are likely to find out more on this soon. Fingers crossed!

[Huang Chung]

Guys, you might find the following articles of interest.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/

http://www.financialpost.com/Story.html?id=147237

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN0562065320071205

[Tok3n]

Aren't ADY mines in Chile?

[shasta]

Aren't ADY mines in Chile?


Yes the ADY Iron Ore mines are in Chile

The Rincon Lithium project is based in Argentina

[OutToLunch]

A post from Troubleshooter on TopStocks may be of reassurance... I am yet to fully understand the full extent of the govt changes in Dec though, perhaps they might override these FTZs too? I don't know. Might have to ask Phil directly.

>Argentina Free Trade Zones

Argentine Law authorizes the Federal Government to create one Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in each province and it delegates to the executive branch the authority to create the foreign trade or export processing zones.

There are currently 10 FTZ's in Argentina:

One of these ten is the 'Salta Free Trade Zone'

The Rincon Salar is located in Salta.

[Huang Chung]

Have another read of this article:

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/

It says in part.... 'Rio Tinto mines borate in Argentina, and is building the Rio Colorado potash project, although this is not affected by the changes, as it will only begin production in 2011, and so would have been subject to the new export duties anyway, Cobban said.

So, if Rincon doesn't get into production for a couple of years, maybe ADY have already factored in the appropriate tax rates into their feasability studies.

Anyhow, it's just a theory. I guess the only way you're going to know for sure is to talk to the company.

[shasta]

Have another read of this article:

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/

It says in part.... 'Rio Tinto mines borate in Argentina, and is building the Rio Colorado potash project, although this is not affected by the changes, as it will only begin production in 2011, and so would have been subject to the new export duties anyway, Cobban said.

So, if Rincon doesn't get into production for a couple of years, maybe ADY have already factored in the appropriate tax rates into their feasability studies.

Anyhow, it's just a theory. I guess the only way you're going to know for sure is to talk to the company.

I wouldnt get too hung up with that article, rest assure RLL will be making large profits & is a likely take over target, once the Iron Ore business is separate.

Any royalty scheme (if applicable) will apply to ALL competitors & ADY will be in full production late 2008/early 2009, still ahead of the pack.

Anyone in doubt email Phillip Thomas personally & he will clarify it.

[OutToLunch]

Anyone in doubt email Phillip Thomas personally & he will clarify it.

Did that earlier today and yes it does look like RLL will slip in under this new tax regime. Phil is a shrewd operator, no denying that. Great stuff (I was worried there for a bit!) :)

[Hawke]

So the silly sellers late last week were seemingly acting on the NEW tax info- but had the wrong interpretation on it? -and lost out?

Hawke.

[STRAT]

Do you think we might actually get to discuss "out of favour" shares this year on the ASX

it seems to me the likes of ADY have taken over the ASX side of things and yet better performers constantly go under the radar with absolutely no comment

ASX side is full of specs and miners/ resources only

Whilst I also am interested in ADY
Stocks I like hardly get a look in or response at all

PSA, MPJ, MEP, DRX etc, its hard to get any real other comment going on so many other stocks. I guess this is the norm but these "popular" stocks on the ASX seem to be doing VERY badly

PEM and ADY for example




Where is the balance for 2008 and going forward?Gudday SectaSurfa. May I suggest you start a thread or if they exist start a dialog and ask some questions. Id be interested in what you have to say on MPJ. As to ADT and PEM the rest of that list of yours aint doin too well either ;)

[duncan macgregor]

Do you think we might actually get to discuss "out of favour" shares this year on the ASX

it seems to me the likes of ADY have taken over the ASX side of things and yet better performers constantly go under the radar with absolutely no comment

ASX side is full of specs and miners/ resources only

Whilst I also am interested in ADY
Stocks I like hardly get a look in or response at all

PSA, MPJ, MEP, DRX etc, its hard to get any real other comment going on so many other stocks. I guess this is the norm but these "popular" stocks on the ASX seem to be doing VERY badly

PEM and ADY for example




Where is the balance for 2008 and going forward? I would suggest if you want fair and reasonable discussion SECTOR you should stop running about with your heel snapping one liners. Take your one against YOGI for instance you say its all crap without coming out with why its all crap. You then bombast him coming near the end in a share picking competition without noting that his average entries over the years have been near the top. I would suggest if you want balance post the reasons why you think that way then you will contribute to bring to the attention of other investors systems and companies that they might otherwise have missed. Give us companies for tomorrows markets and forget all this childish bitterness. Macdunk

[Hawke]

This is the ADY thread and its great potential is still well on track. Its has many discussion points and I dont want anyone scared off from posting!
Discussions here are very keenly watched by me and I enjoy the info exchange.

Silly Sellers last week will be rueing future announcements.

Hawke.

[STRAT]

Next month is significant for ADY but Im gonna stick my neck out here and say they are gonna get cheaper before the end of the month :eek:

[Serpie]

I think that they may as well Strat. Not significantly, but perhaps mid to low 30's is possible.

[Oiler]

I think that they may as well Strat. Not significantly, but perhaps mid to low 30's is possible.

I have just topped up again @ 34c and lining up for more should they go lower. ;)

[STRAT]

I have just topped up again @ 34c and lining up for more should they go lower. ;)Hi Oiler,
Im still holding out but I came very close to owning some more today :D

[Oiler]

Hi Oiler,
Im still holding out but I came very close to owning some more today :D

Strat

The temptation was too great..........if tomorrow looks lower then the snout will be back in the trough. ;)

[shasta]

Strat

The temptation was too great..........if tomorrow looks lower then the snout will be back in the trough. ;)

Smart move from a smart man, looking forward to seeing you at the next Wellington event, to discuss ADY among other things...:cool:

[Serpie]

Oiler you sly old dog! Good buying my friend.

I might be joining you in the buy queue tomorrow. Spent my lunch money on BRT today, but still have my milk money. So many "bargains" around at the moment though. What to do, what to do?

Is ADY really that "speccy" that it should be getting hammered like this? I'm a big fan of RSI, and I never thought I'd see ADY go through oversold.
I might need to reset my indicators to 20 & 60 rather than 30 & 70 in this market.

[jeremy b]

This might go lower yet.I'm having trouble finding a support indicator but thats not unusual.Need to get back in before company splits and price goes through the roof.

[tricha]

Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief

THE world's biggest car maker, General Motors, believes global oil supply has peaked and a switch to electric cars is inevitable.
In a stunning announcement at the opening of the Detroit motor show, Rick Wagoner, GM's chairman and chief executive, also said ethanol was an "important interim solution" to the world's demand for oil, until battery technology improved to give electric cars the same driving range as petrol-powered cars.
GM is working on an electric car, called the Volt, which is due in showrooms in 2010, but delays in suitable battery technology have slowed the project.
Mr Wagoner cited US Department of Energy figures which show the world is consuming roughly 1000 barrels of oil every second of the day, and yet demand for oil is likely to increase by 70 per cent over the next 20 years. Some experts believe the supply of oil peaked in 2006.
The remaining oil reserves are deeper below the Earth's surface and therefore more costly to mine and refine.
"There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now," Mr Wagoner said. "As a business necessity and an obligation to society we need to develop alternative sources of propulsion."
He added: "So, are electrically driven vehicles the answer for the mid- and long-term? Yes, for sure. But … we need something else to significantly reduce our reliance on petroleum in the interim."
GM is so convinced about ethanol it has signed an agreement with a supplier that claims to have come up with a way of producing ethanol that is cheaper and more efficient than refining oil. The supplier claims it can produce ethanol from "almost any material" such as farm waste, municipal waste, discarded plastics - even old tyres.
The car industry has had a love-hate relationship with ethanol, which is most commonly derived from crops such as corn, wheat and sugar cane. At first, car makers criticised ethanol-blended fuel because most vehicles weren't compatible with it. Then car makers changed their tune and embraced ethanol-blended fuel after retuning engines to suit the new mix.

[spruik]

This might go lower yet.I'm having trouble finding a support indicator but thats not unusual.Need to get back in before company splits and price goes through the roof.

We all know there have been a lot of impatient and fearful characters buying and selling - many taking a loss. HC posts are testimony to that.

When most people don't believe it will go down further it will rise. Seems like yesterday was a better day than today to get in, notwithstanding the charts.

[Halebop]

When most people don't believe it will go down further it will rise. Seems like yesterday was a better day than today to get in, notwithstanding the charts.

Personally I think there is a good argument for suggesting when most people do think the shares will continue falling it will instead rise. Many find it rational or comforting to sell into a falling market to avoid further losses. But once you have sold, you have nothing left to supply, so selling pressure eases and the price stabilises and rises. Go to HotCopper, agree the world has ended and convince them to sell. It will do as much good as convincing all to buy.

However, for trend followers so far the charts have given good advice - stay out for now. There have been many posts here about where support will kick in but the trend for many months has been down, nothwithstanding the odd day where the price rises 1 or 2 cents and euphoria returns to the ADY thread. Anyone buying on such prognosis are now nursing losses. My best guess for near term support would be 32 cents but the only emaphatic support lines were 42 cents (now broken) and 20 cents - a long way further down. Note that I'm not talking value here, with an operational Lithium business this share should be over $1.00. But those risks and an unknown time line deserve discounting and few risks can withstand a bear market.

Buying at a low point a great for the soul but picking it is hard. Why not just wait for the trend to confirm rather than supporting someone elses exit strategy? From the price action and the top 20 disclosures the smart money has been selling over the last few months. Who here can compete with 30m or 40m or 60m shares being dribbled on the market from a handful of holders on top of the standard trading chatter? Let the trend confirm when they've stopped selling.

[Serpie]

Great post Halebop.

Good, common sense stuff, and hard to argue with any of it.

[spruik]

But once you have sold, you have nothing left to supply, so selling pressure eases and the price stabilises and rises.


Then come the short sellers (then again they would usually come at first sign of a break of support)

Point taken Halebop.

[Halebop]

Then come the short sellers (then again they would usually come at first sign of a break of support)

Does anyone lend these shares? Haven't looked into it but I'd be surprised if there was much (or any) short selling.

[spruik]

Does anyone lend these shares? Haven't looked into it but I'd be surprised if there was much (or any) short selling.

I was referring in general. Dunno about shorting these. Although I have a CFD account for over a year I never used it. Basically I am a long term investor but do love medium and short term trades - just for fun. I like to sleep at night.

[spruik]

We all know there have been a lot of impatient and fearful characters buying and selling - many taking a loss. HC posts are testimony to that.

When most people don't believe it will go down further it will rise. Seems like yesterday was a better day than today to get in, notwithstanding the charts.

I eat my words!

[STRAT]

The sell down is relentless and not in keeping with the rest of the markets activity today. The volume aint huge though. One large holder jumping ship perhaps? You gotta wonder if they all know something we dont.:eek: Still got my buy order in though under 30c:D

[shasta]

well Hale, 32c IS the lowest today

ADY @ 32c, Ouch...:(

[slam]

Trading Halt

[Viking]

Trading Halt

Trading Halt?????
Feels like someone knows something and we don't???

[Serpie]

Mmmm - demerger news? Or just in pre-open pending an update.
More likely the latter I suspect.

[OutToLunch]

I don't think there has been a bad news leak -- the market in general is diving and plenty of leveraged punters were in trying to make a quick buck out of ADY; no doubt some of those who bought in at 40 or 50c+ have panicked and sold. Trading volumes weren't all that high during the share price drop. I think it will be one of the many updates we have been long expecting. Hopefully news on funding for RLL. :)

[Viking]

This is kind of nervous and exciting thing to guess what will happen next~
Would it be the Quarterly Cash Flow report or Activity report? which may contain something major?

[Serpie]

We'll take that today. Dont care what it's for!

[spruik]

We'll take that today. Dont care what it's for!

Naaah a holiday is good for nervous nellies :p

[Serpie]

Rumour (HC) has it that it's a placement at 45c.

[Hawke]

Yes the Halt looks like its based on rumours of a IO offtake agreement and a possible pending placement at .45c- Very good rumours/news after this last week!!!!!!

It may seem like some manipulation may have gone on to cause a recent SP nosedive - especially aided by the general a market dive.

Back to 45c next week????

[STRAT]

Bugger!!!
I was hoping to buy some below 30c over the next few days:(

[Hawke]

You should have paid a fair price like me 41.5c - Strat.

Not great timing by me............

But perhaps not great timing by you if the above is spot on...................?

You can have mine for 55c!
Hawke.

[STRAT]

You should have paid a fair price like me 41.5c - Strat.

Not great timing by me............

But perhaps not great timing by you if the above is spot on...................?

You can have mine for 55c!
Hawke.LOL, I will decline your very kind offer Hawke. 1st in line in the sell column is 28c;)

[spruik]

Bugger!!!
I was hoping to buy some below 30c over the next few days:(

Why not start your own rumour after it comes back on, this time a negative one. Then below 30c I'll start a positive rumour.

I'be been buying some stuff this morning, maybe I'm too brave?

[STRAT]

Why not start your own rumour after it comes back on, this time a negative one. Then below 30c I'll start a positive rumour.LOL. Yeah like anyones gonna listen to me:D


I'be been buying some stuff this morning, maybe I'm too brave?Maybe, depends what you are buying I suppose. I have quite a few buy orders in but they are all pretty rude:o

[spruik]

LOL. Yeah like anyones gonna listen to me:D

Maybe, depends what you are buying I suppose. I have quite a few buy orders in but they are all pretty rude:o

30,000 AGS at 1.305

[Viking]

Why not start your own rumour after it comes back on, this time a negative one. Then below 30c I'll start a positive rumour.



Count me in on that one :D

[Huang Chung]

30,000 AGS at 1.305

Apparantly not rude enough Spruik.

$1.30 last. :eek:

[Hawke]

If the speculation is correct about a placement at .45c and a new IO offtake agreement.......
What would you expect the close of trading to be on the day (today-tomorrow) of news release?

My call is .46c.

Hawke.

[OutToLunch]

I am picking that ADY will spike up into the 40s on the news (if it's confirmed), and then start heading back down again unless more updates come out regarding other things on the go (demerger, funding for Li, Fe JORCs, valuation reports, etc). Only because the overall market is looking very bad. ADY is swimming against a very ugly undercurrent for the time being, even though the medium-long term outlook looks fantastic.

By the way, have a read of this (posted by katy28 on HC this morning regarding RIO's outlook for Fe) -- sounds good too.

>>From 'THE AUSTRALIAN' 16th Jan

RIO CEO sees resilient Chinese demand

RIO Tinto boss Tom Albanese has issued a fresh rallying call to the market ahead of a likely takeover bid from rival BHP Billiton, saying Chinese mineral demand was set to be resilient in the face of fears over slowing developed world economies and a possible recession in US.

While financial markets are fixated on the ongoing fallout from the US sub-prime bad debts crisis, the troubles with UK bank Northern Rock, and the potential for the US economy to slide into recession, Mr Albanese said the outlook for mineral demand remained strong.

And he estimated that were the US to slide into recession, it would likely only shave 1 percentage point off Chinese economic growth, which Rio is otherwise expecting at around a strong 10 per cent.

"The macro conditions are continuing to lead to strong markets in China and Asia," he said.

Mr Albanese unexpectedly dropped in at a dinner between Rio's iron ore management team and visiting journalists in Perth last night to reiterate that he saw no value in BHP's informal three-for-one offer, and that the strong independent value outlook for Rio was unchanged by the global financial ructions.

And he claimed the UK market remained wary of BHP's takeover strategy, worried that BHP chief executive Marius Kloppers may be over reaching himself and may not be to fully executing his strategy of delivering significantly higher value from what would be the biggest merger in mining, if not corporate, history.

The UK will be the key battle ground in any takeover fight given the London market accounts for 78 per cent of Rio's total capitalisation.

But Mr Albanese declined to be drawn on whether he agreed with the UK market assessment, saying that given BHP's low ball approach "I haven't given it a lot of thought.�

While conceding that a merger with BHP would achieve synergies, he said these were small compared with the value offered by Rio's independent growth outlook, and that he wasn't prepared to pursue merger synergies at the expense of Rio Tinto shareholder value.

The UK Takeovers Panel has given BHP until February 6 to either launch a bid for Rio or walk away for at least six months.

Mr Albanese noted that despite the concerns over the US and European economies, there had been no easing in the strong iron ore market in Asia.

Rio Tinto's head of iron ore sales and marketing, Ian Bauert, said the market was the hottest he had seen it in his 30 years with the company, and that the feedback from Asian steel mills was that they weren't expecting the US slow down to affect them.

"Customers are saying that it isn't going to have an impact on them.� Mr Bauert said.

Mr Bauert said Chinese steel production was being driven more and more by rising domestic demand within China, rather than the pace of exports which the government is taking steps to slow.

Mr Albanese said the danger of Chinese growth stalling in some post-2008 Beijing Olympics hangover had receded with the scale of the country's industrialisation now having a "national momentum� beyond just a few key cities.

He also said the Chinese government remained anxious to maintain strong growth rates and to increase jobs so as to head off any threat to social stability.

About 10 million Chinese a year are migrating from rural areas to urban areas, putting pressure on authorities to ensure there are enough jobs for the newcomers.

[STRAT]

Nice post OutToLunch and Hawke with a placement at 45 I would say end of the first day or second will be 38-42 :D

[JackSprat]

Actually with the huge increase in IO (going up 70%), the drive in China to double production and wealth in the next 5 yrs; the ever increasing demand for lithium as new technology demands it and the DOW making a sudden recovery when Ben Ben slaps a whole plaster caste on the US economy, I'd say ADY will come out fighting. 45 > 60c

[Serpie]

Nothing shattering at first glance. Does this mean we're trading again in 20 minutes?

[spruik]

Nothing shattering at first glance. Does this mean we're trading again in 20 minutes?

At least the timely trading halt stopped the rot. This report should give some reassurance that it's business as planned.

[STRAT]

At least the timely trading halt stopped the rot. Not for long I recon mate. Im keeping my low ball bid for a while yet

[Halebop]

At least the timely trading halt stopped the rot. This report should give some reassurance that it's business as planned.

I suspect this was exactly the reason for the trading halt and a strategy that the market will accept only so often. They got off lightly to see a price rise today - the announcement was a non event and a nonsense to require a trading halt.

[spruik]

This is of course highly confidential information (from my free trial subscription) and exclusive to ADY thread readers (and holders):

Huntley's Special Bulletin:

The sharemarket has now had approximately a 15% correction from its recent highs around the 6800 mark. The major bank horror stories in the US are now out in the open and the relevant banks have applied appropriate bandages to their capital bases. Further wounded warriors will appear.

My view is we have seen the worst of this correction and we will now consolidate ahead of a sharp rally. Expectations for a US Fed Reserve rate cut at the end of January are now building from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut.

This rally could well mark the low point of this correction in the markets, which could settle down into a trading range for some months until the markets sense better times ahead.

[Halebop]

Shoot, why not a full 1%? Sustained FED rate cuts normally auger a minor rally as the gullible leap in then a sustained correction / bear, as FED rate cuts normally also auger a soft or recessionary environment. Huntly's are betting against the odds to suggest a rate cut will bring a quick return to bull conditions (in the US at least). Just as likely to see a double whammy of a softer US$ currency and softer US equities.

[Revhead]

Firstly, I admit I know nothing about ADY.

But the more cynical amongst us would have draw the conclusion from the chart
that something was up during the last week and may have expect some bad news
coming.

Heavy selling!
Nine days of price drops, last four or five days on increased volume.
Ended at the low of the days trading today. Never a good sign.

I think Halebop had it right a couple of days ago when he suggested, based on chart,
to stand-aside for now.

Next support at 30.5/30 and then 26.5


http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh301/RevheadST/ADY_17Jan2008.gif

[STRAT]

Gudday Revhead, I see it falling strait through that 30.5/31.0 support you speak of tomorrow. 26.5 Sounds like a nice spot to buy some

[shasta]

Gudday Revhead, I see it falling strait through that 30.5/31.0 support you speak of tomorrow. 26.5 Sounds like a nice spot to buy some

Treetops & co will be aghast to hear that once again Shasta has succumed to medical problems requiring a visit to Wellington Hospital :eek:

Back at home recuperating & thus ADY should rebound tomorrow...:D

I liked the ann - pity the market is in such a weak state to not appreciate it!

[STRAT]

I liked the ann - pity the market is in such a weak state to not appreciate it!Worthy of a trading halt though?

[shasta]

Worthy of a trading halt though?

Marginal i would have thought, although we have seen others for less?

[RossT]

And not even a token gesture of a mention for the demerger? Not even a token gesture of a mention for the jewel in the crown = the lithium? That was an ann to announce that the two main things that people have been pinning their hopes on with ady aren't worth mentioning? Okay thats not very reassuring.....

[shasta]

And not even a token gesture of a mention for the demerger? Not even a token gesture of a mention for the jewel in the crown = the lithium? That was an ann to announce that the two main things that people have been pinning their hopes on with ady aren't worth mentioning? Okay thats not very reassuring.....

...or still to come?

We do have a tender process for 10% of the Lithium though

[Halebop]

And not even a token gesture of a mention for the demerger? Not even a token gesture of a mention for the jewel in the crown = the lithium? That was an ann to announce that the two main things that people have been pinning their hopes on with ady aren't worth mentioning? Okay thats not very reassuring.....

The problem with the demerger prosposal is that it doesn't make much sense. The more mature iron business isn't really worth much in comparison to the cash flows it has recently been spinning off (i.e. It would sell on a low PE befitting a single location, small scale, cyclical company). Those funds are better contributed towards the greenfields lithium business and uncertainties of financing than splitting the two apart (at least until Lithium is supporting itself). This is "Managing Business For Growth 101", a different agenda to "Maximizing Short Term Sharemarket Gains in a Bull Market 101". The former has legs, the later is a bad idea.

To put it a little differently... The lithium business is potentially "important". The iron business, as profitable as it presently appears, is no "killer application". Despite this, Iron cash flows facilitates the Lithium business. Why would you remove this facility and further open your business plan to the whim of investment bankers and share market conditions?

[shasta]

The problem with the demerger prosposal is that it doesn't make much sense. The more mature iron business isn't really worth much in comparison to the cash flows it has recently been spinning off (i.e. It would sell on a low PE befitting a single location, small scale, cyclical company). Those funds are better contributed towards the greenfields lithium business and uncertainties of financing than splitting the two apart (at least until Lithium is supporting itself). This is "Managing Business For Growth 101", a different agenda to "Maximizing Short Term Sharemarket Gains in a Bull Market 101". The former has legs, the later is a bad idea.

To put it a little differently... The lithium business is potentially "important". The iron business, as profitable as it presently appears, is no "killer application". Despite this, Iron cash flows facilitates the Lithium business. Why would you remove this facility and further open your business plan to the whim of investment bankers and share market conditions?

Well said, i guess its the same situation as NZO/PRC - maybe these projects need separate focus to maximise shareholder value.

I hope it was not just a "short term" decision that backfires thats all.

I'm more of the opinion both ADY & RLL are dressing themselves to be taken over & thats where the split "fits" in with there thinking.

I like the Lithium story, as for Iron Ore when ramped up to 7mtpa ADY will look good, but i'm not convinced IO is where i want to be investing.

Am looking at focussing on energy/alternative energy companies, esp those with water related interests.

I should add the companies im looking at include, ESI, LNG, SXP, LNC, TSI, BBI, ISK

[STRAT]

Anyone else thinkin 27.5 was the bottom for now? We will know in a day or two I guess.

[spruik]

Anyone else thinkin 27.5 was the bottom for now? We will know in a day or two I guess.

Considering the dramatic turnaround in the last half hour with positive Dow futures I wouldn't be surprised that we have seen the worst for the market as well.

The question is.... did you buy today, strat?

[STRAT]

Considering the dramatic turnaround in the last half hour with positive Dow futures I wouldn't be surprised that we have seen the worst for the market as well.

The question is.... did you buy today, strat?IM not sure we have seen the worst of it mate ( market in general that is ), I just think we are in for a bounce.
No I didnt buy today .I left my order at 26.5. Bought some NSL instead :eek:

[STRAT]

For a bit of fun anyone want to try and pick the closing price. I will say 31.5 :D

[spruik]

For a bit of fun anyone want to try and pick the closing price. I will say 31.5 :D

I prefer to put my guess in at 16:10... :) try 0.310

[STRAT]

I prefer to put my guess in at 16:10... :) try 0.310Haha Yeah right!! posted at 4:02pm I dont know wether to say nice timing or just call ya a cheatin Pirate :D:D:D

[OutToLunch]

Well what a day, straight down and straight back up again. The temptation was too much once it broke through 30 so I went in for another 100k shares, which I snared at 29 cents after chasing it back up from 27.5. May or may not be the bottom but surely it is outstanding value at this level. Into the bottom drawer they go. :)

[doon]

IM not sure we have seen the worst of it mate ( market in general that is ), I just think we are in for a bounce.
No I didnt buy today .I left my order at 26.5. Bought some NSL instead :eek:

Interested in looking into NSL, but their web site not up?? http://www.nslhealth.com.au/ Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage

[denpal]

I bought quite a few at 28.5c today, couldn't resist as this company has so much going for it esp. lithium and potash given the global demand for both these products.

[RossT]

Very tempted today to buy but held off. Come monday I could be cursing missing a great bottom to buy in at, or be even more tempted than today if it falls. It did seem so very undervalued in the 20's, but where will the current negative market sentiment end?

[tricha]

Small articule in the Chrishchurch Press motoring section

Worth a read , the creation of a new joint venture, Lithium Energy Japan stands as one of the biggest developement of the new breed of electric cars.

Lithium-ion production is the only restricting factor in the final developement of the i-MiEV[1] AND OTHER ZERO EMISSION ELECTRIC VEHICLES, which Mitsubishi are looking to sell around the world next year.

.................................................. .................................................. .

Lithium Batteries and Uranium is the worlds future beyond Peak Oil.

Also I can visualise a solar producing material over the body of the the vehicles to charge the battery free from the sun.

Bring it on Zero pollution. The ultimate in a green car.

And the beauty of ADY is they will have truck loads of Lithium :)

[STRAT]

Interested in looking into NSL, but their web site not up?? http://www.nslhealth.com.au/ Internet Explorer cannot display the webpageHi Doon. The web site is closed. They are no longer in the dental product business. I was going to start a thread but didnt get round to it. Why dont you? ;)

[denpal]

you may be interested in DYE technology then

I don't know enough to invest but they seem to have a lot going for them right now

www.dyesol.com

I've just been looking at them and have added them to my watchlist - will research them when I have time.

[tricha]

Great news for Talison ( SOG ) the last place I worked at, grading 5 % Spodumene

Wow, not even 1% lithium and these guys are going to try and make money out of a 30,000 ton resource of Lithium.

Things must be getting desperate out there for a Lithium supply.

Interesting times ahead for ADY I'm sure.

Trade them at your peril, when they go into a trading halt with a lithium off take partner, she's blue sky.

( We all know what happened to Paladen, This baby has the same potential.)

.................................................. ..................................................

15 January 2008
Nordic Mining acquires Finnish lithium project

Nordic Mining acquires 68% of Keliber Oy and confirms its strategy of exploration and production of high-end minerals and metals. Keliber has plans and permits for exploration and production of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate in Finland.
Keliber will be the first European producer of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate, scheduled to start production in 2010. One of the main applications for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate is for production of batteries to mobile phones, laptops, electric vehicles, portable tools a.o. The increasing demand for electric and hybrid cars is boosting production of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) ion batteries, indicating a positive forecast for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate.

Keliber's production plant in Finland is expected to be cost competetive with current production of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate and has a 'green' profile with regard to both the process itself and the final product.

'The realisation of the lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) project will give opportunities of strategic and industrial importance for Nordic Mining', says Ivar S. Fossum, CEO. Lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) is a mineral with advanced forward-looking applications and is in particular attractive as a component in the new generation of batteries. The shareholders of Keliber have build a solid platform for further development in their preparations for the first European production plant for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate.'
Keliber's lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) project

Keliber Oy has mining concessions, permits and approved plans for exploration of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) minerals in Kaustinen in the Osterbotten region in Finland.
In addition to mining concessions, the plans also includes a new process plant for production of lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate. (Li2CO3).
Total investments are estimated to EUR 40 – 45 million. Keliber has carried out project development for several years and the company is ready to enter into contracts for civil work, construction and erection once financing has been established. Nordic Mining will play a key role in the financing of the project and will commence preparations for this in the first half of 2008.

Production is scheduled to commence in 2010. Production will initially be based on a resource of spodumene ore of approximately 3 million tons with a grade of 0.92% lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) oxide. The spodumene ore also contains economical grades of tantalumpentoxide and quartz-feldspar. The planned production from this resource represent a sales value of approximately USD 250 million at current market prices for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate. In addition, Keliber has exploration licences for two spodumene deposits which at a later stage might be processed in the same plant.
Increasing demand for lithium

Lithium has many industrial application areas and there are several derivaties based on lithium, i.a. lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate. Lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate is used for instance in the glass and ceramic industries, for production of lubricants and in pharmaceutical products as well as in various alloys. An important application area for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate is in batteries for mobile phones, computers, electric and hybrid cars, electric tools etc.. Lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) has special properties as regards ability to store electric energy, and the battery sector is an important growth area for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) carbonate.

Increased focus on environmental issues and CO2 emission have already significantly affected the demand for electric and hybrid cars based on lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) ion batteries. The large international car manufacturers have development programs and focus which clearly indicate increased relative importance of these car types in the coming years. Toyota, as an example, has informed of plans to go 100% hybrid by 2020. – Edited Press Release

[spruik]

As more battery powered cars come on steam in the future (or should I say come on electricity), instead of buying petrol it will be "plug 'm in for the night". That's from the electricity grid so a much greater demand for electricity is expected. The energy for that at present is substantially from burning fossil fuels.

If we are talking about climate change and air pollution, we need to get away from burning fossil fuels (coal especially) fast and big-time. The most realistic method of generating electricity big-time is nuclear.

We could always shoot the waste out into the direction of the sun, or at least create a central (temporary) underground storage facility and make money out of it.

So we should invest in the production of Uranium and Lithium.

[STRAT]

Ann out from ADY " subprime crisis, What subprime crisis???"

Now, will Mr market buy into it?

[STRAT]

notice recieved an HOUR AGO. meanwhile ADY plumits into oblivion. It better not be bad news. On the other hand.......................:D

[OutToLunch]

No bad news -- just an update on Bulman. Direct seems to have locked up as far as quotes and news go. Ann below...

>>BULMAN GEOPHYSICS SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS A NUMBER OF PROSPECTIVE AREAS FOR EXPLORATION OF ECONOMIC
DEPOSITS

The board of directors of Admiralty Resources is pleased to announce that the geophysical, magnetic and radiometric surveys conducted over the Bulman exploration leases in October 2007 have identified several areas that warrant
further investigation for fault system related carbonate hosted Mississippi Valley Type Pb-Zn mineralisation.

Given that Mississippi Valley-type Pb-Zn mineral deposits are often located in fault and fracture systems, the traces of the interpreted faults are likely to be
considered as sites for future exploration.

Admiralty has two mineral leases 726 and 727 which have shown prospective occurrences of lead zinc mineralization. It also has four exploration leases granted in July 2007. The interpretation has highlighted a system of east-west
and north-south faults that spatially correlate with known mineralization and Pb-Zn geochemical soil anomalies.

Similar faulted areas were noted in the eastern
most section and central western area of EL 23814 and are considered to be highly prospective.

Several unexplained potassium radiometric anomalies exist in the area. There is a possibility that these could be indicating potassic alteration associated with the influx of mineralising fluids. Such sites will be examined, particularly the strong anomaly occurring immediately north of the Bulman 1 Deposit.

On the basis of the report Bulman Resources Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL will commence a drilling program to target the areas of interest in May this year as soon as the wet season allows
work to commence. A drilling rig has been booked for the drilling campaign.

The price of lead on the LME was US$1.16 per pound and zinc is US$1.01 per
pound.

[STRAT]

Thanks OTL.

[spruik]

XJO: 5360 a major low (so I heard)? Might there be hope yet for ADY. Who thinks it will tank again to 0.20?

[OutToLunch]

Quite possible in this market. I thought I was being cheeky picking up ADY at .29 last week, but this is unreal! If they get near 20 I might have to take some drastic action to get some more. Does anyone want some secondhand floorboards?? :D

[STRAT]

XJO: 5360 a major low (so I heard)? Might there be hope yet for ADY. Who thinks it will tank again to 0.20?Ive lowered my bid to sub 20 :eek: for now but Im flying blind. DB is grid locked :mad:

[spruik]

Ominous sign that shasta has now broken all three legs... :D

[OutToLunch]

I can still get depth ok, but nothing much else. Here it is as at a couple of mins ago if that helps

Bids
Quantity No. Price
92,188 3 22.5
357,727 7 22
503,700 8 21.5
1,406,000 16 21
358,390 10 20.5
1,454,227 30 20
24,950 2 19.5
151,800 5 19
40,000 2 18.5
123,000 5 18
50,000 1 17.5
200,000 2 17
10,000 1 16
218,500 5 15
25,000 1 14.5

Asks
Price No. Quantity
23 2 339,142
23.5 5 296,966
24 8 288,771
24.5 5 128,000
25 5 241,168
25.5 3 60,244
26 4 199,800
26.5 3 383,555
27 4 151,083
27.5 8 755,000
28 8 392,304
28.5 5 542,000
29 6 264,482
29.5 6 330,102
30 6 458,000

[STRAT]

Thanks again OTL. I can see that too but am showing last trade at 10:00 @25c so I dont trust the depth either

[spruik]

Last trade 0.230 at 11:26 (low 0.225)

[OutToLunch]

Thanks again OTL. I can see that too but am showing last trade at 10:00 @25c so I dont trust the depth either

Hmm -- I get last trade at 11.27 am at 23.5. Something funny going on at your end by the look of it (though my quotes page and recent trades list is not working). Maybe it's trying to spare you from the pain of watching ADY hit the deck. :eek:

[winner69]

Is todays fall (down to 23.5) a result of that announcement about a geophysics survey or just market malaise

[STRAT]

Thanks guys it would appear only the trades are not showing. The rest seems in keeping with what you have displayed. Hope yall are not on DB too :eek::rolleyes:

[spruik]

Thanks guys it would appear only the trades are not showing. The rest seems in keeping with what you have displayed. Hope yall are not on DB too :eek::rolleyes:

Isn't DB a brand of beer?

[STRAT]

Isn't DB a brand of beer?LOL, Yes and a great analogy right now :rolleyes:

[Halebop]

20 cents would be an obvious support level. Unfortunately the ASX has smashed through an obvious support level itself. I'd be waiting for a bounce off it and a calmer ASX before buying. If it breaks down through 20 cents it could become a hell of a resistance level too.

Please don't throw your good money after bad. If the Lithium business fires off these shares are worth more than $1.00. Why quibble over a few cents when you only have to wait for a trend to confirm?

[RossT]

Sub 20 not far away now. Surely with such a relentless sell off leveraged postions are being margin called and sold off left right and centre. All that lithium and a market cap looking to go under 200 mill. It just has to be a buy or do I hold out for 15cents and let the snowball roll a bit further down the mountain?

[shasta]

Ominous sign that shasta has now broken all three legs... :D

I sitting here stunned at watching the market meltdown in front of me.

When will the hurting stop?

Some very cheap ADY on offer, whose backing the truck up?

[spruik]

I sitting here stunned at watching the market meltdown in front of me.

When will the hurting stop?

Some very cheap ADY on offer, whose backing the truck up?

Shame... will take so much longer to reach that $2.00 :mad: I'll wait till tomorrow.

[STRAT]

I dont think the Yanks are done yet with foolish decision making. Maybe in the mid teens :eek:

[shasta]

I dont think the Yanks are done yet with foolish decision making. Maybe in the mid teens :eek:

Last time i bought them at 21c they hit 67c in 6 weeks :D

[STRAT]

Last time i bought them at 21c they hit 67c in 6 weeks :DNot this time I recon mate. The DOW will be pummeled tonight. Two days worth and tomorrow real panic will set in. Thats my call at this stage shich of course is discounting FED intervention.

If the he yanks are all getting tax cuts I recon they will turning it into cash and hiding it in a hole in the back garden :p

[spruik]

Not this time I recon mate. The DOW will be pummeled tonight. Two days worth and tomorrow real panic will set in. Thats my call at this stage shich of course is discounting FED intervention.

If the he yanks are all getting tax cuts I recon they will turning it into cash and hiding it in a hole in the back garden :p

I share your feelings. If today is not a crash then "Le Crash" (that I cancelled before) might arrive tomorrow.

[JackSprat]

No way will Ben Bernake?? or Bush in his last year of office let the American economy bomb; not in his last year in office. It won't happen because the world as we know it will collapse altogether if they do. Be back to horse and dray. Just won't happen.
As for ADY how can a producer like this suddenly not produce. Iron Lithium Potassium all in demand. If you sell now not only will you lose your capital you'll lose the sudden surge when it comes - and I'd say sooner than a lot imagine.
Two weeks $150b will flood the American economy and we'll be back up to .50+

[JackSprat]

To add to that from the Daily Reckoning:

1. U.S. Politics: America is on the verge of a recession. It's a presidential election year in the U.S. and the major candidates are desperate to avoid inheriting a recession. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has already blessed the idea of a US$150 billion stimulus package as "reasonable". If implemented, it could lead to a much weaker U.S. dollar AND (here's the key part) a rapid increase in tangible asset prices.
2. China: Every economy in the world is certain to be affected by an American recession. Yet according to the latest World Bank Figures, China and India-with their 2.3 billion new capitalists-are growing at double digit rates. This growth rate may not last forever. But the large historical trend of developing Asia is bullish for Aussie resources.
3. Peak Oil: Soybean and wheat prices recently made record highs. Gold crossed the mythical US$900 barrier. Oil went over US$100. While some of these trends are driven by financial speculation, all of them are driven by one fundamental fact: more people than ever are competing for a dwindling amount of scarce resources.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I say if you've got it,( and if you hold stock like ADY) why sell it??

[shasta]

No way will Ben Bernake?? or Bush in his last year of office let the American economy bomb; not in his last year in office. It won't happen because the world as we know it will collapse altogether if they do. Be back to horse and dray. Just won't happen.
As for ADY how can a producer like this suddenly not produce. Iron Lithium Potassium all in demand. If you sell now not only will you lose your capital you'll lose the sudden surge when it comes - and I'd say sooner than a lot imagine.
Two weeks $150b will flood the American economy and we'll be back up to .50+

Exactly, i don't believe the Lithium or Iron Ore has "disappeared".

ADY has had no problems getting credit in this environment, so whats all the panic for?

Yawn, bring out the RLL valuations & all shall change... :eek:

[OutToLunch]

Well I for one am hoping for a decent US slump overnight -- I raised some more funds late today and am ready to pick off a few more cheap ADY tomorrow morning, hopefully at no more than 21c max. Even if we don't see the bottom tomorrow it can't be far away and 20c is an absolute steal. ADY has far too much going on to be worth only what it's currently trading for, esp with long-term Fe contracts all but in the bag and a whole swag of developments to come.

Fingers crossed for some more blind panic in the morning....:rolleyes:

[kura]

I was last a follower of ADY back when it was trading in the 9...12 cent range (several years ago) as per usual, I got sick of holding on to a share that was doing nothing, and sold out, (too early of course) The current carnage on the market has rekindled my interest, is the proposed spin off into seperate companies a fact yet ? or are we still in "pre spin off" mode.

[shasta]

I was last a follower of ADY back when it was trading in the 9...12 cent range (several years ago) as per usual, I got sick of holding on to a share that was doing nothing, and sold out, (too early of course) The current carnage on the market has rekindled my interest, is the proposed spin off into seperate companies a fact yet ? or are we still in "pre spin off" mode.

Meant to happen Feb/March - after we get the separate valuations for ADY (Iron Ore) & RLL (Lithium)

[bonito]

I am normally pretty quiet on the forum front but this has got a bit exciting. Lost a crap load on paper the last few weeks, even sold a few other stocks at a loss when I saw how low ADY had got again, thinking I may be able to use the cash to grab some bargains. I picked up a whole lot last time we slumped to 20c ish and plan to do the same again. This time however I think it would be wise until it turns around and catch it on the way up rather than try and guess the bottom. Single digits?... surely not? About 2 weeks a go I said 28c! your joking.. so lets see what unfolds tonight...

There are some bargain spec around at the mo, I sense this is one of them.

2008, 2009 my be hard for many but ADY's torch is lithium powered!

[STRAT]

Well I for one am hoping for a decent US slump overnight -- I raised some more funds late today and am ready to pick off a few more cheap ADY tomorrow morning, hopefully at no more than 21c max. Even if we don't see the bottom tomorrow it can't be far away and 20c is an absolute steal. ADY has far too much going on to be worth only what it's currently trading for, esp with long-term Fe contracts all but in the bag and a whole swag of developments to come.

Fingers crossed for some more blind panic in the morning....:rolleyes:Im with that OTL. I want my ADY top up for 16c:D

Hi Bonito.
That wouldnt be a boat by any chance?

[STRAT]

I'd be willing to bet the consolidation/demerger plans will be postponed.

They will not achieve the desired outcome of a consolidated share price of over $1.00 based on their current ratio of 1:3.4.
Alternative is that they go ahead- but now at 1:6, which nobody would be in favour of. Safest bet is to postpone, rather than risk losing faith with their shareholders.Snap. I was thinking the same thing Major.
I have no Idea what they will do or when but it does shed some darkness on time lines from a trading point of view.

Anyone else given this consideration????

[stevo1]

Im with that OTL. I want my ADY top up for 16c:D

Hi Bonito.
That wouldnt be a boat by any chance?

hi strat i think you might have to strum up your bid to a lot higher pitch to get into ady today.

[spruik]

hi strat i think you might have to strum up your bid to a lot higher pitch to get into ady today.

Yeah strat, and don't be so stingy...



PS
Hope your DB Beer platform is working today :D

[JackSprat]

And don't forget the cross over rate's looking a helofalot better today than yesterday......:D

[STRAT]

hi strat i think you might have to strum up your bid to a lot higher pitch to get into ady today.I think you are right there stevo but Id rather pay 27 on the way up than 21 on the way down

Not stingy Spruik We all got hammered yesterday except Macdunk and a few others sitting on their hills of cash. Just trying to balance the books and make an opportunity out of a disaster

[STRAT]

Another ann out. The boys at ADY really want to mend the SP before the demerger eh?

[STRAT]

WOW opened at 28 :eek::eek::eek:
Cant see it holding

[stevo1]

WOW opened at 28 :eek::eek::eek:
Cant see it holding

strum faster higher strat that ann is good

[STRAT]

strum faster higher strat that ann is goodDunno mate lots of ifs and maybes in there. and lead guitarists dont strum:cool: very often

[Viking]

Looks like the market opens high and quite a big rebound~
ADY jump around 34% today~
What's in store for us all today??? Not that I'm complaining or anything~ I am thrilled :D

Hoping ADY climb back to 30c support~ seems this scenario could well be made possible today~

[spruik]

We all know that ADY's success heavely relies on the SP now. Seems that they have a number of prepared anns (or be able to prepare at short notice) to be released at appropriate times, in order to minimize negative impacts and maximize SP.

Same pattern on the way up from 20c to over 60c last year.

I am not suspicious of that (like some were), rather it might be seen as good management. Effective communication is the key to success on a personal and corporate level, anywhere anytime.

Many individuals and companies lack that skill.

[stevo1]

Dunno mate lots of ifs and maybes in there. and lead guitarists dont strum:cool:

mate you might have to brake out into a hendrix rift.a thought thou with so much interest in li (if anyone has any doubt google "uses for lithium" and surf around a bit)and it set to become "the clean oil"for this century the question i ask myself is if i had the opportunity to buy into an oil company in 1908 would i have?thou there are risks these guys seem on to it.

[STRAT]

mate you might have to brake out into a hendrix rift.a thought thou with so much interest in li (if anyone has any doubt google "uses for lithium" and surf around a bit)and it set to become "the clean oil"for this century the question i ask myself is if i had the opportunity to buy into an oil company in 1908 would i have?thou there are risks these guys seem on to it.I too have a lot of faith in this crowd too but Its market conditions that ultimately determine the right price and when. I didnt sell and am looking to add but timing is everything especially with a hendrix riff;)

[OutToLunch]

A great announcement this morning. Essentially ADY are now on the verge of securing future revenues for both Li and Fe -- and all development costs appear to be covered without need for equity raising. 70 interested buyers for Li is a great response, so, like the buyer's tussle going on for the Fe ore, ADY are perfectly placed to pick and choose the best from a number of competing offers. It's all coming together very nicely now.

My low bid this morning didn't stand a chance against that announcement so I went to 28c which was finally filled a short time ago. Much more than my hoped-for 21c but still way less than what long-term fundamentals will support. :)

[upside_umop]

This announcement states its for a 10% supply of their lithium for 10 years.
The profit margin over this time is expected to be 40-60 million USD for the 10%.
Will be amortized over life of 10 years.
So given this, it means the PV of the lithium project will be around 400-600 million USD?
This correct?

[shasta]

I'd like further explanation on that same point in the tender too if anyone can help?

I'd like to know if by "pre-payment" does PT actually infer a 'part-payment' of the profit margin? Otherwise, it means they have locked in a sales price for the next 10 years, which surely wouldn't be the case.

Can anyone explain the terms of this tender further, especially in relation to that "pre-payment"?

The tender contract effectively means we receive "income in advance", this is more the accounting of the income in the correct period.

There will be a clause in the contract that specifies a % increase or tiered to some benchmark i'm sure, Phillip Thomas is one smart operator.

I can only see this ann as great news & brings some more "assurance" to the market.

The fact the tender process is so competitive can ultimately be good for shareholders.

Major - i suggest you email PT directly & ask him, he WILL respond in plain english & in a timely manner.

[Halebop]

For it to be "profit" in advance the only other factor is cost. So I would pick the variable factor to be a formula for recognising operating expenses. Given a potential partner is paying quite a bit of cash in advance (and effectively bankrolling the start up with an interest free loan), it would be quite equitable that the price be fixed barring inflationary (also deflationary?) adjustments to operating cost. This essentially would equate to an interest discount but only if the price of lithium does in fact rise. A falling lithium price would equate to a ratchet clause in the price received.

It would already be a smart deal if they secure the seed capital, 50% guaranteed distribution and a floor price on 10% of output from a single agreement.

[shasta]

For it to be "profit" in advance the only other factor is cost. So I would pick the variable factor to be a formula for recognising operating expenses. Given a potential partner is paying quite a bit of cash in advance (and effectively bankrolling the start up with an interest free loan), it would be quite equitable that the price be fixed barring inflationary (also deflationary?) adjustments to operating cost. This essentially would equate to an interest discount but only if the price of lithium does in fact rise. A falling lithium price would equate to a ratchet clause in the price received.

It would already be a smart deal if they secure the seed capital, 50% guaranteed distribution and a floor price on 10% of output from a single agreement.

Remembering of course Potash is a "free" by-product, that effectively negates the costs associated with producing the main Li products

[OutToLunch]

I think Halebop's take on it is probably pretty close to the mark -- the ann seems a bit open to interpretation though so I guess we can only wait for the final tender results to get the full detail. However it would be no mean feat to ask a buyer to pay for 10 years of supply upfront, so a lower price for that 10% would be part of the tradeoff for having that dosh in the hand. As for the costs side of things I would be surprised if there wasn't a clause in there to cover potential cost increases in some way.

70 keen buyers is a superb response and puts ADY in a great position to be handed (hopefully) a very tasty by one or more of the 13 on the shortlist. Also there is certain to be an element of desperation on the part of one of more battery manufacturers to secure a stable supply of Li, which would play into Phil's hands quite nicely.

[tommy]

I must confess to buying into ADY in the past few days after waiting on da sidelines for months... was never interested in the 40s but in the mid 20s, ADY seems cheap considering its potential risk-reward ratio.

Especially like the extra potash potential, whose price is set to soar.

[Dazza]

same brought more today at 25.5
hope it was good
buying bhp last week at 35.20 after the bush 140 billion rescue scheme came out, i thought it was a good idea.... boy was i wrong, 31!!!!!! it hit bah

[soulman]

You are in the green now eh Dazza, re: BHP. I was lucky to get it on that black Tuesday at $31.50. I have sold at $33.89 though so easy come easy go - missed out on $2.

[suntboy]

Hi guys
When i was reading about the Co 4 or 5 yrs ago and subsequently bought for 3 cents
One thing that bothered me was an article I read about Hybrid cars being powered by another source other than lithium.
It was more expensive at the time but the statement was along the lines of if lithium gets too expensive in years to come we can switch to this method.
At the time it was the only thing that made me wonder if my investment was right
I am wondering if their is an alternative that could cap the price?
Good Luck

[Halebop]

Hi Suntboy,

Lithium is a commodity tied to a technology so there are plenty of alternatives - both commodities and technologies - not least of which (from an automotive perspective) is oil and the combustion engine. The real question is demographics, momentum and marketing success. Lithium may not be the best automotive technology but like VHS may still have it's years in the sun at the expense of a better product.

At the moment the main growth application is batteries for appliances of various types (From Laptops to drills to shavers). So with emerging economies and global consumer brands (who tend to make singular technology path decisions) relatively strong over the last decade, Lithium prices and demand have been assisted.

In the future Lithium may get a boost from increased automotive applications. While this is exciting, the sector has had any number of false starts in developing alternative propulsion systems and energy sources. Most of the hype is still in the vaporware category and even recent announcements by various auto companies still need to be supported by demonstrable success in their market segments.

At the moment the appliance stuff is enough to drive demand and prices over the longer term. Alternatives here are possible but manufacturers are locking themselves into Lithium via their tooling. This is all positive and bodes well for the future. The auto stuff is nice but consider it a bonus if and when it happens (or an opportunity to sell if the hype start getting out of hand).

[Huang Chung]

Worthy of a trading halt though?


Marginal i would have thought, although we have seen others for less?

So is this an example of externalised internalisation? :D

[STRAT]

So is this an example of externalised internalisation? :DHell no but this might be :D




I'd just be talking to myself.....but come to think of it, that pretty much what happens now in any case..........

[Huang Chung]

Hell no but this might be :D

Got me good there, Strat, Shasta or who ever the hell you are this minute......:D

[STRAT]

Got me good there, Strat, Shasta or who ever the hell you are this minute......:DYou can call me Shasta if you like HC but for the record I aint no cross dressing pussycat;) If you dont believe me just ask that young punk Vince :D

Im wondering if maybe Sector Surfa and vince might be one and the same:eek: