ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[Serpie]

Mmmm, are Strat and Shasta actually the same person?

I've met both, but have never seen them both in the same room at the same time. Coincidence - I think not.

[STRAT]

Mmmm, are Strat and Shasta actually the same person?

I've met both, but have never seen them both in the same room at the same time. Coincidence - I think not.You got me Serpie. You know the really hard part was in order to be strat I had to strap my legs up and wear shoes on my knees ;) Thats the real reason I left early that night. The pain became unbearable

[shasta]

Thankfully the ASX market is open tomorrow & we may be able to "resume normal programming".

Banned from most hotels?

With the DOW down on Friday, it shall be an interesting day...

Lets hope PT has another ann lined up...

[Huang Chung]

[quote=shasta;182992]Thankfully the ASX market is open tomorrow & we may be able to "resume normal programming".
quote]

Geez, proof positive that having the market closed an extra day is enough to send some people off their nut.

Just think, Easter isn't that far away :eek:......

[shasta]

[quote=shasta;182992]Thankfully the ASX market is open tomorrow & we may be able to "resume normal programming".
quote]

Geez, proof positive that having the market closed an extra day is enough to send some people off their nut.

Just think, Easter isn't that far away :eek:......

Those of us in NZ have Waitangi/NZ Day on Feb 6 :eek:

[tricha]

Hi Suntboy,
In the future Lithium may get a boost from increased automotive applications. While this is exciting, the sector has had any number of false starts in developing alternative propulsion systems and energy sources. Most of the hype is still in the vaporware category and even recent announcements by various auto companies still need to be supported by demonstrable success in their market segments.

At the moment the appliance stuff is enough to drive demand and prices over the longer term. Alternatives here are possible but manufacturers are locking themselves into Lithium via their tooling. This is all positive and bodes well for the future. The auto stuff is nice but consider it a bonus if and when it happens (or an opportunity to sell if the hype start getting out of hand).

Small articule in the Chrishchurch Press motoring section

Worth a read , the creation of a new joint venture, Lithium Energy Japan stands as one of the biggest developement of the new breed of electric cars.

Lithium-ion production is the only restricting factor in the final developement of the i-MiEV[1] AND OTHER ZERO EMISSION ELECTRIC VEHICLES, which Mitsubishi are looking to sell around the world next year.

Sorry Halebop a may or an if. Its a done deal and will happen, unless oil goes back to $30 a barrell, yeah right.
The green Machine , bring it on and I do not mean the Canberra Raiders.

The only thing that could halt ADY is sovereign risk and they seem to have that covered. ;)

Oh, and we better get prepared to hearing a slight wisp as the cars go past.

[Huang Chung]

The green Machine , bring it on and I do not mean the Canberra Raiders.

Oh, and we better get prepared to hearing a slight wisp as the cars go past.

Cars that sound like electric wheelchairs.....can't say I'm looking forward to that day I'm afraid.

Will be interesting to see what the cost of these 'hoovers on wheels' will be.....will they ever be the 'average man's' car, or remain just a neiche market. European manufacturers seem to be putting a lot of effort into diesel technology, so there might still be an internal combustion alternative to these automotive vacuum cleaners.

[Halebop]

Sorry Halebop a may or an if. Its a done deal and will happen, unless oil goes back to $30 a barrell, yeah right.

Tricha there have been "done deals" before that have simply fizzled or failed to sell enough units/get enough momentum. This is nothing more until they capture and maintain some market share.

[RossT]

http://www.ybiofuels.org/bio_fuels/history_diesel.html

Here's a link to a brief but interesting article on the diesel engine. An engine that was never intended, or originated to run on a fossil fuel at all, but on vegetable oils.
Personally I see lithium from a consumer appliance battery veiwpoint ( tools, laptops, phones, etc ) and see diesel engine advances, and biofuel advances becoming more commonplace before battery or even battery/hybrids become mainstream.

[tricha]

Tricha there have been "done deals" before that have simply fizzled or failed to sell enough units/get enough momentum. This is nothing more until they capture and maintain some market share.





ASX Company Announcement

Admiralty Resources NL

ACN 010 195 972

GPO Box 517, Melbourne 3001
Level 14, 200 Queen Street, Melbourne
[t] 61-3-96701838
[f] 61-3-9670 1898
www.ady.com.au

23 January 2008
Company Announcement Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street

SYDNEY NSW 2000
STRONG RESPONSE TO US$50M LITHIUM TENDER
13 COMPANIES SELECTED FOR SHORTLIST

The board of directors of Admiralty Resources is pleased to announce that Rincon Lithium
Limited, currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL is developing one of
the world’s largest lithium, potash, sodium sulphate and sodium carbonate production
facilities in the world.
Rincon has had a substantially higher level of interest than expected in response to its
tender to sell 10% of its final production level of 17,000 tonnes of lithium products per
annum, per year for ten years over the period June 2009 to June 2019. Interest has been
received from commodity traders, battery manufacturers, financial commodity dealers, and
traditional minerals wholesalers around the globe.
More than 70 companies applied, and the shortlist has been reduced to 13 companies. All
the finalists have signed or submitted a final version of the confidentiality agreement.
The tender covers:

 Supply of 10% of production for 10 years. The successful tenderer will make a
prepayment in mid 2008 of the profit margin, expected to be between US$40m and
US$60m for the 99.0+% lithium carbonate product.

 An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in Asia, covering
40% of production

 An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in the Americas,
covering 10% of production

 The balance will be sold by Rincon’s sales and marketing team.
Our project financier has given Rincon Lithium an indicative term sheet based on the
overview of the banking feasibility study. The value of the financing is in excess of the cost
of constructing the full production facility and 470 hectares of ponds. The deposit will come
from the tender prepayment to be received, so after the Admiralty demerger, it is not
expected that an equity raising will be required to complete the project.
The sales revenue received from the tender will be amortised over a ten year period so only
one tenth of the revenue amount received will count towards earnings per share which will
be booked in the 2007-8 financial year if the tender is concluded by 30 June 2008.
The demerger is expected some time in March 2008 after the independent expert’s report is
received. Admiralty is also taking the step to get tax advice on how the cost base of the free
Rincon share will be treated. All shareholders in Admiralty Resources at the time of the
Extraordinary meeting will receive one free Rincon lithium share for every Admiralty Share
they hold, assuming the motion is passed.

Argentinean Resources Tax

Recently the new government elected in Argentina announced they would impose a 10% tax
on the value of sales of minerals.
Admiralty has taken a number of steps to minimize the impact of this tax impost by:
- Signing a 30 year fiscal stability statement with the previous government precluding
such a tax. The current government has largely ignored these fiscal stability
statements with the new law. At least two major multi-nationals have sought a
judgment from the Argentinean courts to determine whether this new tax impost is
legal or not.
- We have sought accounting advice from our advisors on how to apply the large
amount of tax deductions we have received from the Argentinean Government
including 200% deductibility for exploration expenses to minimize the impact.
- We will establish a sales and warehouse bonding office in Zona Franca which is a
customs tax free Province in Argentina located 50 kilometres from our head office at
Salta.
- Finally, we continue to have open dialogue with the government and will eventually
ask them to determine if Lithium Carbonate is a chemical or a mineral for the
purposes of the tax which may mean we are exempt.
Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director
Rincon Lithium Limited

[OutToLunch]

Tricha there have been "done deals" before that have simply fizzled or failed to sell enough units/get enough momentum. This is nothing more until they capture and maintain some market share.

I agree -- whilst everyone is talking lithium-ion battery powered cars, and this momentum appears to be building rapidly, by and large we're yet to see these things in the mass market. I do think we're heading in the right direction, and the push to get us off the oil binge isn't going to go away, thanks to the tightening oil market and climate change issues. So long as it's "all about lithium", those two factors will insulate ADY from the effects of a US recession to a degree.

However Li-ion batteries may well be a passing fad, just as the much-touted hydrogen fuel cell went through a massive speculative boom a few years ago until it was realised that the infrastructure required to get the hydrogen car on the road was a huge barrier. It could be that within the next few years a new technology may displace Li-ion battery power, though the improvements being made to Li-ion batteries makes this technology a rapidly moving target too.

In favour of hybrid electric cars (and this could well prolong the Li boom), we already have the infrastructure in place (ie the power grid) to "refuel" electric cars, notwithstanding that using it to charge a national vehicle fleet will put it under a lot of strain so improvements to the network (and additional power generation sources) would be needed. Even so, it puts the potential for electric cars well ahead of hydrogen fuel cell cars at this stage.

Go ADY! :)

[The Big Ease]

i dont know much about the energy market, but i reckon the market for lithium will be in better batteries for portable devices. since most electronics are becoming smaller and portable, youd think this is probably where the rump of the market is.

all this nonsense about cars is pie in the sky. the uptake is just so far over the horizon, you wouldnt want to be making investment decisions on them. its in electronics.

[seaosh]

I wouldn't call lithium battery cars 'pie in the sky' stuff.

Hybrid cars are already very common.

Lithium batteries are a next generation technology getting a lot of attention from hybrid car makers. The nickel-hydride batteries in the current Toyota Prius work well, but a small improvement would make a big difference.

Nothing is guaranteed, but given all the investment that has gone into lithium batteries for autos, plus the fact that hybrid cars are a proven technology that is growing more popular, plus the upwards trend in oil prices, plus the fact that more sources of lithium are coming online, I'd saw the likelihood of lithium batteries getting adopted in autos is pretty good.

Probably the only biofuel with a real shot at being viable on a large-scale would be biodiesel produced from algae farms.

[tricha]

i dont know much about the energy market, but i reckon the market for lithium will be in better batteries for portable devices. since most electronics are becoming smaller and portable, youd think this is probably where the rump of the market is.
all this nonsense about cars is pie in the sky. the uptake is just so far over the horizon, you wouldnt want to be making investment decisions on them. its in electronics.

I'm re-posting this just for u Big Ease and high lighting a key point or two.

Small articule in the Chrishchurch Press motoring section

Worth a read , the creation of a new joint venture, Lithium Energy Japan stands as one of the biggest developement of the new breed of electric cars.

Lithium-ion production is the only restricting factor in the final developement of the i-MiEV[1] AND OTHER ZERO EMISSION ELECTRIC VEHICLES, which Mitsubishi are looking to sell around the world next year
.................................................. .................................................. .........................
All major car manufactors are into it, hence more than 70 companies applied for Admiralitys Lithium, and the shortlist has been reduced to 13 companies.

.................................................. ..................................

The only thing that will stop Admiralty becoming a multi billion dollar company is soverign risk.

[The Big Ease]

haha missed that.
cheers

[AMR]

While on the topic of lithium, does anyone know how it is extracted, what sort of risks are inherent to the extraction process, etc?

[Serpie]

Have a look at the last ADY broker presentation on their website. Explains the basics, with lots of pretty pictures and diagrams.

[WASL]

A bit too much social (and sniping) chit-chat for my liking. Guys & Gals; please stick to the topic and stop the one-up-man-ship.

If you have something to say - say it; otherwise butt out.

No individual offence meant - hopefully none taken.

Regards, and


Good luck to all


WASL

[JackSprat]

Who pulled your chain WASL ??? The last time you made a comment here was last year. The comments and interactions on ADY are always interesting and often full of information. I don't see any sniping or off topic comments. If you want to make a comment tell me why you think ADY is still going down in this current climate??

[STRAT]

Who pulled your chain WASL
LOL Jack,
I was wondering the same thing but thought it best to let someone else say it as Im one of the worst when it comes to filling threads with crap:D

As to ADY and this market. I think in the next few weeks other stocks will be following ADY's lead;)

[shasta]

LOL Jack,
I was wondering the same thing but thought it best to let someone else say it as Im one of the worst when it comes to filling threads with crap:D

As to ADY and this market. I think in the next few weeks other stocks will be following ADY's lead;)

WASL has a point though.

Despite the sniping/good oil, no one else has attempted to refute/debate/or update my valuations back from page 59 on this thread.

I'm keen to find out from those less bullish than i, there valuations on ADY/RLL post split?

Anyone up to it?

[STRAT]

refute my valuations back from page 59 on this thread.

Anyone up to it?Not me mate :D

[Serpie]

I'm keen to find out from those less bullish than i

Shasta,
You're the most bullish dude here. Great enthusiasm in the face of this market downturn.

Kudos to you for keeping the faith, and I hope that your valuation on the ADY/RLL split come through.

The problem we have is that even those companies with (what we perceive to be) great fundamentals are suffering from a lack of buying pressure. I think ADY is great. I thought it was great at around 40c when I bought it. I think its great now at 24c.
But, despite sitting on a little bit of cash, there's no way I'll buy it now unless it falls quickly and dramatically. Not in this market.

[shasta]

Shasta,
You're the most bullish dude here. Great enthusiasm in the face of this market downturn.

Kudos to you for keeping the faith, and I hope that your valuation on the ADY/RLL split come through.

The problem we have is that even those companies with (what we perceive to be) great fundamentals are suffering from a lack of buying pressure. I think ADY is great. I thought it was great at around 40c when I bought it. I think its great now at 24c.
But, despite sitting on a little bit of cash, there's no way I'll buy it now unless it falls quickly and dramatically. Not in this market.

What fundamentally has changed about ADY?

The Lithium is evaporating nicely, the Iron Ore stock piles are awaiting enough ships to get the stuff to customers...

We all know the market is volatile & tends to swing too far both ways, i just cant comprehend the amount of bargins out there.

I have no fresh capital at present to jump on them!

As with ADY, i consider URA, OEL, AMU, PSA, NWE, NDO, ESI & SXP way under valued at present.

Of course i'm bullish, always have been & always will be :D

[Serpie]

As with ADY, i consider OEL, AMU, PSA, NWE, NDO, ESI & SXP way under valued at present.

NWE is in the same boat. Needs big news to lift it.

[STRAT]

What fundamentally has changed about ADY?

The world ADY lives in has changed. Short term , long term is the $64000 question. But this is a fundamental change none the less

[shasta]

The world ADY lives in has changed. Short term , long term is the $64000 question. But this is a fundamental change none the less

ADY has 2 in demand products, being Iron Ore & Lithium products.

The market in general has changed, ADY's business & fundamentals remain intact.

I see buying at these levels, merely increasing the margin of safety.

Remember i've backed myself & have over 50% of invested capital riding on it!

BTW - Congrads on the 1000 posts :cool:

[STRAT]

ADY has 2 in demand products, being Iron Ore & Lithium products.

The market in general has changed, ADY's business & fundamentals remain intact.

I see buying at these levels, merely increasing the margin of safety.

Remember i've backed myself & have over 50% of invested capital riding on it!

BTW - Congrads on the 1000 posts :cool:I agree at these levels it would seem sound but we didnt buy in at these levels.
ADY's business is only as sound as the businesses it intends to sell to. If ( a big if ) the world goes into a recession and the bottom line for all those businesses are hurting from Cars to Cell Phones then ADY will hurt too.
Electric cars may be the way of the future but in hard times new product lines are the first to be put on hold. If people are watching their spending, new laptops and phones wont be at the top of their to by lists. I see these things as significant possible changes to the fundamentals of ADY with the outcome uncertain.
Then there is availability of credit. I know they are alright for now but once again the question of will there be a recession, wont there be a recession, how long will it be for and how long till we know for sure hangs over ADY's head as it does for any other company.
The market says ADY is 24c and these are the same people we have to sell our shares to so Im still hanging out for a sub 20c buy

A thousand posts Id be lucky if there are half a dozen keepers amongst them:o

[Halebop]

I'm keen to find out from those less bullish than i, there valuations on ADY/RLL post split?

Anyone up to it?

Shasta when I waded through the potential numbers I saw these shares as being worth at least and probably more than $1.00 (Based on the current 980m+ share structure). In terms of valuation though it is entirely subjective and ignores execution risks which are always more substantial than apparent.

Am I bullish? Fundamentally yes (more so on Lithium than Iron - I suspect the Iron business will prove to be of a very average pedigree in a softer environment but if prices hold that business could still be medium term bonanza). But Technically? Not at the moment...

45 cents at that time proved to be expensive. The trend told me to stay out irrespective, as it still does...
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/4414/adychartjpgpw7.jpg

[spruik]

LOL Jack,
As to ADY and this market. I think in the next few weeks other stocks will be following ADY's lead;)

meaning following ADY's lead downwards? :p

[STRAT]

meaning following ADY's lead downwards? :pYup......:(

[spruik]

With regard to ADY, some of us here (me included) have been remembering the story too well but forgetting the numbers. This is such a common error, we (these "some of us") shouldn't have been holding when the 42c floor cracked.

All easy in hindsight of course. I thought I did well "preserving capital" and selling at 55c on the way down from 67c, but rather than buying back I should have left it alone until 20c. The excuse being that it's "so close to demerging" yet we have virtually known all there is to know for many months now.

Nevertheless I've done well, but by no means optimal.

[JackSprat]

Lets have another look at it. From my very limited understanding I can't see anything that's changed for ADY. What has changed is the world scene BUT I feel confident that with the American economy having to perform and the various activities about to happen with ADY Shasta's forecast is still on track.

ADY has been done over by speculators as well which tends to inflate sp but so saying, now they have done their dash as it were, I feel ADY will quickly rebuild to a healthy high of .50c+ throughout FEB.



Steve, i dont think its worth $1.5b, not yet anyway...:eek:

Lets assume the combined market cap is around 500m (approx 50c @ 980m pre-split), i'd attribute 40% or $200M to ADY, & 60%, $300m to RLL

Post split thats 200/280m = 71c for ADY, & 300/280m = $1.07 RLL.

Now lets consider a suitable P/E ratio for each*

State One valued ADY at $1.20 (EPS 15c) looking forward (pre-split) BEFORE all the additional iron ore JORC resources & when we held 49% of the JV (now 60%), & before we knew the full resource of the Lithium...

FE prices are due for a substantial rise, 20 - 35% in 2008 (depends on your source!), so getting to $1.50 from $1.20 isnt out of the question, & thats going from a forward P/E of 8 to 10.

Given that both ADY & RLL are conservatively expected to have revenues > $100M (the Iron Ore from Nov 07 is due to have production of 234k per month, approx $10m revenue p.m), lets split the P/E up...

* ADY = 40% (6c), RLL = 60% (9c) based on a pre-split EPS of 15c

ADY - to get EPS of 6c on 280m = profit of $17m (will exceed that easily)

RLL - to get EPS of 9c on 280m = profit of $25m (should exceed that too)

I would be "comfortable" valuing an iron ore company on a P/E of 10 - 15 given the upside for 2009 & beyond with forward sales contracts & 9 IO mines in Chile, with more JORC upgrades to come....

ADY at EPS of 6c x 10 - 15, gives us a valuation range of 60 - 90c

For RLL given the massive resource & the lack of suitable comparisons (SQM perhaps?) i'd attribute a P/E range of 15 - 20 as a growth stock.

RLL at EPS of 9c x 15 - 20 gives us a range of 145 - 180c

Take the mid points, ADY @ 75c X 280m = $210m

RLL @ 167c x 280m = $467m, combined value approx $677m

Pretty rough calcs Steve, but you get the picture?

My personal opinion is that both companies are worth far more, but we need an independent valuation on RLL before we can ascertain this.

Tinker with the figures to suit folks, but you can see why ADY will surge in the lead up to the demerger date!

[rowanf]

Iron company at P/E of 10 ~ 15 and RLL at P/E of 15 - 20. Are you sure ???? When you can get many many cheap stuff out there now , like MCR P/e of 4 , PEM P/E of 4ish . Even things like Citibank P/E of 7.
Even I would reckon PDN would have a P/E lesser than 15. If that was the case Who would you own PDN or ADY. Remember PDN is already producing, while RLL still plan to produce. Anwyay this is first contribution to this forum

[Halebop]

Welcome to the forum RowenF!

I agree those PE ratios are too rich on an all things being equal basis. However, I suspect RLL will do better from Lithium than Shasta's numbers indicate on an earnings basis and the business will be more favourably viewed as a sunrise technology rather than a cyclical materials business.

Either way I wouldn't buy or hold until the trend improves.

[shasta]

Iron company at P/E of 10 ~ 15 and RLL at P/E of 15 - 20. Are you sure ???? When you can get many many cheap stuff out there now , like MCR P/e of 4 , PEM P/E of 4ish . Even things like Citibank P/E of 7.
Even I would reckon PDN would have a P/E lesser than 15. If that was the case Who would you own PDN or ADY. Remember PDN is already producing, while RLL still plan to produce. Anwyay this is first contribution to this forum


Fair call & good to see some healthy discussion on ADY, i don't think comparisons to MCR (Nickel) & PEM (Zinc, Lead) are fair though.

There is no Nickel/Zinc shortage & with plenty of producers at present, Lithium is NOT widely produced & RLL will end up supplying some 10 - 20% of the potential market, & like with Iron Ore, i'm expecting the Li price to increase during 2008 reflecting the demand v under supply.

Look how competitive the 10% tender process was???

[WASL]

Hi Strat,

I'm a reasonably large holder of ADY and believe in the long -term potential of lithium. Agree with some recent posters that the iron ore stuff is marginal at best.

If it goes below $0.20 I will be back in the market for a lot more. The long-term view (in my view) is very solid.

Regards, and

Good luck as always


WASL

[STRAT]

Hi Strat,

I'm a reasonably large holder of ADY and believe in the long -term potential of lithium. Agree with some recent posters that the iron ore stuff is marginal at best.

If it goes below $0.20 I will be back in the market for a lot more. The long-term view (in my view) is very solid.

Regards, and

Good luck as always


WASLHi WASL, Ive been in ADY 3 times and currently hold. If it goes sub 20c I will be doing the same;)

[JackSprat]

From: http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Question to Executive Director
Share price is low.
Top 20 list indicates that perhaps some holders have sold out. The various Option
holders/sellers have long been and gone, so it seems improbable that they are the
cause.
Despite three quality announcements, we have seen continued selling. Now, it would
be fair to suggest that the recent issues over credit, plus general market conditions
would affect the share price. However, a 50% reduction, in spite of good news, is a
little hard to swallow. And, it is generally not the case with stocks that may be
considered 'peers' of ADY.
Question: Is someone lending shares to enable short selling?
This facility is not generally available via CFD, but some have noted that ANZ are
allowing shorts on ADY via a specific type of instrument which requires the
purchase/sale of other shares - ie., some sort of 'balanced' scenario.
If you have any thoughts that you are allowed to offer, I'm sure they would be much
appreciated.
Shareholder
ADMIRALTY RESOURCES - Answer from Phillip Thomas to Shareholders
I have checked the trades every day for the past two weeks to see if there is any
short selling, that is people who have a sold position and no matching bought
position. There are none that I can find. I think there is a bit of imagination going on
here regarding the ANZ short facility as I doubt whether ANZ would be bothered
lending ADY stock from other large holders (and I know them all) - try it yourself with
BHP for 100,000 shares from a stock lender and see how much it costs you and the
interest charges - better off to use CFDs, which do not cover Admiralty. Macquarie
will not margin lend against ADY. It is only UBS, ANZ, Merrill Lynch, Opes-Prime and
some of their wholesale stockbroker clients.
Even if they do short the stock, it only takes one institution to buy $20m worth of
stock as has happened before and they are dead in the market, with no liquidity via
futures, CFDs options, etc.
Admiralty is an announcement driven stock and the market is waiting for me to
announce the two 10 year sales contracts worth at 46 million tonnes total at $60 per
tonne - $2.7 billion and $40m finance.
However, we are not rushing as we have another strategy which might give us a
better outcome soon and so we are working on this - if the market thinks we are
worth AUD $270m today then so be it.
The market cap does not make sense as our partner Wyndham just sold a 70%
interest in two deposits with 11 drill holes, no JORC, one existing mine for $74 million
to JSW Steel (Jindal subsidiary). So 10% was worth $7.4million (US). They stumped
up $52m yet we only paid $26m for 60% they paid $52m for 70% and they are just
down the road.
In contrast, we have an existing mine, 90 million tonne JORC, shipped 210,000
tonnes, two keen bidders (and about 100 more for the ore), three port strategies (he
has one which we have tied up for 2/3rds of the month for the next 10 years) so the
asset alone has to be worth US$200m+ (we paid $13mUS for the previous 10%)
which is 20 cents a share. Even if you assume the life of the mine is 46m tonnes and
it is s worth $750m net profit at a discount rate of 12% over ten years, it makes the
share price 75 cents x p/e 8 = $6.00. You might work it out another way but this is a
rule of thumb.
The reason why the share price is not six dollars is because we have a few tasks to
complete which we are working on:
- Sales contracts
- JORC
- Ports
- Expanded production to 4 million tonnes which is our environmental permit
amount at Japonesa Mine
but over time the price will gravitate upwards because the market won't allow the
arbitrage.
Then add the lithium business, the lead-zinc at Bulman upside and so on.
Share volumes have been low - so there is little momentum. Now that I am back from
leave more information will be disseminated.
Kind regards
Phil Thomas
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director - Rincon Lithium Limited
Executive Director - Admiralty Resources NL
Director - Cia Minera Santa Barbara

[stevo1]

hi jacksprat i think if you work that out the sp should calculate as 60 cents .heaps of hairpulling and teethnashing on other forums on this one but does show phil thomas in not such a good light .that combined with market weakness in us and europe could see ady under 20 cents.(i hope not)strat you may have your chance to load up.

[Tok3n]

so $6 = post consolidation?

[JackSprat]

$6 when everything is online. Just a matter of ticking them all off as ADY develops further and its all up and running. Until then, with ann in the wings sp will begin to move.

[STRAT]

hi jacksprat i think if you work that out the sp should calculate as 60 cents .heaps of hairpulling and teethnashing on other forums on this one but does show phil thomas in not such a good light .that combined with market weakness in us and europe could see ady under 20 cents.(i hope not)strat you may have your chance to load up.Yeah Stevo, based on the post above I get 60c too based on current number of shares and all numbers rounded off.

What a difference one decimal point misplaced makes eh:D

Question is, Is that the value being put on Rincon Lithium for the next 10 years?:eek:

[shasta]

Yeah Steve, based on the post above I get 60c too.

What a difference one decimal point misplaced makes eh:D

Again if you refer to my initial valution on page 59, that figure is at the lower end of my valuation, albeit that i had a lower EPS figure & used a higher P/E.

[STRAT]

Again if you refer to my initial valution on page 59, that figure is at the lower end of my valuation, albeit that i had a lower EPS figure & used a higher P/E.Hi Shasta,
I was addressing the implications of the email rather than speculating on the value of ADY. Would you agree based on the numbers in that email there is a discrepancy with a decimal point to the tune of 10 ( one decimal place ) ?

see below from Jacks post

In contrast, we have an existing mine, 90 million tonne JORC, shipped 210,000
tonnes, two keen bidders (and about 100 more for the ore), three port strategies (he
has one which we have tied up for 2/3rds of the month for the next 10 years) so the
asset alone has to be worth US$200m+ (we paid $13mUS for the previous 10%)
which is 20 cents a share. Even if you assume the life of the mine is 46m tonnes and
it is s worth $750m net profit at a discount rate of 12% over ten years, it makes the
share price 75 cents x p/e 8 = $6.00. You might work it out another way but this is a
rule of thumb

It comes down to wether he ment $750m net profit over ten years or $750m pa over 10 years. I have assumed the former because thats how it was written and the later sounds over the top.

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,
I was addressing the implications of the email rather than speculating on the value of ADY. Would you agree based on the numbers in that email there is a discrepancy with a decimal point to the tune of 10 ( one decimal place ) ?

see below from Jacks post

In contrast, we have an existing mine, 90 million tonne JORC, shipped 210,000
tonnes, two keen bidders (and about 100 more for the ore), three port strategies (he
has one which we have tied up for 2/3rds of the month for the next 10 years) so the
asset alone has to be worth US$200m+ (we paid $13mUS for the previous 10%)
which is 20 cents a share. Even if you assume the life of the mine is 46m tonnes and
it is s worth $750m net profit at a discount rate of 12% over ten years, it makes the
share price 75 cents x p/e 8 = $6.00. You might work it out another way but this is a
rule of thumb

It comes down to wether he ment $750m net profit over ten years or $750m pa over 10 years. I have assumed the former because thats how it was written and the later sounds over the top.

Agree with your sentiments.

You dont apply a P/E ratio to a SP!

Should be based on EPS :D

If it was 75cps earnings, (which i doubt) PT should have divided it by either 988m or 280m post split

Anyway you choose to look at it, the valuation is way above the current SP levels, & only when the conditions he mentioned are satisfied, will the market effectively "re-rate" the company.

I'm looking forward to getting the independent valuations & comparing them to mine.

ADY sub 40c is very cheap IMHO

[STRAT]

Obviously PT and I have something in common. Neither of us are accountants :D:D:D

[shasta]

Obviously PT and I have something in common. Neither of us are accountants :D:D:D

From the ADY site the full response by PT to the Topstocks forum (im a member of this site, not as good as Share Trader though!)

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Hopefully this explains the wild valuation & the fact we are due more anns "shortly".

I expect failing the DOW tanking badly, ADY @ 24c is close to the bottom.

Should it drop further, i will grab as much as i can :cool:

Oops - i see Jacksprat has already posted this article, sorry folks.

Phillip Thomas does reply to personal emails, but does reply quite often on Topstocks

[STRAT]

From the ADY site the full response by PT to the Topstocks forum (im a member of this site, not as good as Share Trader though!)

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Hopefully this explains the wild valuation & the fact we are due more anns "shortly".

I expect failing the DOW tanking badly, ADY @ 24c is close to the bottom.

Should it drop further, i will grab as much as i can :cool:

Oops - i see Jacksprat has already posted this article, sorry folks.

Phillip Thomas does reply to personal emails, but does reply quite often on TopstocksHi Shasta, That article is in fact is where the debate as to wether PT really ment 60c rather than $6 originated

[rowanf]

750m and 1000m share = 75c
75c * p/e 8 = 6$

[Damo79]

750m and 1000m share = 75c
75c * p/e 8 = 6$

Er.... how about:

750m over 10 years
= 75m per annum
= 7.5cps
* P/E 8 = 60c

[STRAT]

How about 23c = 1.5c closer to my bid than yesterday :D:D:D

[shasta]

How about 23c = 1.5c closer to my bid than yesterday :D:D:D


Closed at 23.5c - Strat, your dreaming :D

[STRAT]

Closed at 23.5c - Strat, your dreaming :DOK 1c closer but there is always tomorrow:D

[JackSprat]

Something is afoot Watson! Big buy orders in c/f to sell?

[spruik]

Something is afoot Watson! Big buy orders in c/f to sell?

Watson: Shasta's legs have healed now.

[shasta]

Watson: Shasta's legs have healed now.

Had physio/rehab this morning, am slowly getting there...

Kinda like the ADY share price, just when its coming good it takes a fall :D

[STRAT]

OK 1c closer but there is always tomorrow:DFamous last words eh? I coughed up the extra cent today or should I say the extra 3c.:D

[STRAT]

Famous last words eh? I coughed up the extra cent today or should I say the extra 3c.:DOk, I trebled my holding yesterday at 24.5. believing the 20c / sub20c level I was waiting for wont come or at least not before the demerger. All I ask is that Shasta take extra good care of himself leading up to the demerger. :D

[spruik]

Ok, I trebled my holding yesterday at 24.5. believing the 20c / sub20c level I was waiting for wont come or at least not before the demerger. All I ask is that Shasta take extra good care of himself leading up tp the demerger. :D

Shasta, don't leave home!


On my suggestion, my good neighbour also bought ADY last week as he needs some money for his planned holiday. Don't let him down!

[OutToLunch]

A bit of movement at the station this week and clear signs of capping in the market depth which augurs well too. The trading pattern has definitely changed.

I've also tipped a few people into ADY, not by recommendation (thank god -- I couldn't stand the responsibility!) but through others close to me following my example and picking up a few shares for themselves. Now my brother, partner, a couple of friends and one of their brothers hold ADY -- geez it sounds like one of those 1980s share clubs! One of these friends was in Dunedin recently and their mates down there said to them "You should check out these Aussie shares we've just bought -- our broker put us onto them". Turns out they had bought into ADY too. I haven't worked out who the broker was but they were Dunedin based -- would that be ForBar? Anyway it was an interesting bit of news to hear that a broker was spruiking ADY to their clients.


Chatter over on TopStocks suggests that PT is doing a roadshow this week so maybe that explains the rise in share price. Presonally I hope that's not the reason - a big juicy announcement instead would be handy right now. :rolleyes:

[shasta]

A bit of movement at the station this week and clear signs of capping in the market depth which augurs well too. The trading pattern has definitely changed.

I've also tipped a few people into ADY, not by recommendation (thank god -- I couldn't stand the responsibility!) but through others close to me following my example and picking up a few shares for themselves. Now my brother, partner, a couple of friends and one of their brothers hold ADY -- geez it sounds like one of those 1980s share clubs! One of these friends was in Dunedin recently and their mates down there said to them "You should check out these Aussie shares we've just bought -- our broker put us onto them". Turns out they had bought into ADY too. I haven't worked out who the broker was but they were Dunedin based -- would that be ForBar? Anyway it was an interesting bit of news to hear that a broker was spruiking ADY to their clients.


Chatter over on TopStocks suggests that PT is doing a roadshow this week so maybe that explains the rise in share price. Presonally I hope that's not the reason - a big juicy announcement instead would be handy right now. :rolleyes:


OTL

Check the volume usually a couple of heavy days with SP increases & then the "ann" arrives...

Am thinking more Iron Ore JORC resources on the way :cool:

[OutToLunch]

I haven't worked out who the broker was but they were Dunedin based -- would that be ForBar? Anyway it was an interesting bit of news to hear that a broker was spruiking ADY to their clients.

Just noticed ForBar's nominee a/c sitting at No. 8 on the latest Top 20 shareholders list, so that answers that one. I don't know of any other brokers following ADY though, does anyone else?

[shasta]

Just noticed ForBar's nominee a/c sitting at No. 8 on the latest Top 20 shareholders list, so that answers that one. I don't know of any other brokers following ADY though, does anyone else?

Did you read PT post on TS a while back about some US institution that was buying/looking at ADY?

About the time the whole Merrill Lynch saga came out?

PT was very bullish about it

[OutToLunch]

Yes I remember that, and the confusion that followed -- I still don't know who holds what these days, esp with the use of nominee accounts. Interesting that PT himself uses ANZ Noms -- you'd think that he'd want to shout the details of his holding from the hilltops as a vote of confidence in the company, but presumably he has other valid reasons for using a nominee a/c. Anyway, too many smoky mirrors for this amateur to see his way through. Maybe the current roadshow PT is doing to institutions will lead to a few new entries in the top 20 soon (or maybe just some more nominee holdings! :eek::confused:)

[shasta]

Yes I remember that, and the confusion that followed -- I still don't know who holds what these days, esp with the use of nominee accounts. Interesting that PT himself uses ANZ Noms -- you'd think that he'd want to shout the details of his holding from the hilltops as a vote of confidence in the company, but presumably he has other valid reasons for using a nominee a/c. Anyway, too many smoky mirrors for this amateur to see his way through. Maybe the current roadshow PT is doing to institutions will lead to a few new entries in the top 20 soon (or maybe just some more nominee holdings! :eek::confused:)

I believe PT holds around 40m shares

[stevo1]

Hi OTL on 19/7/17 PT owned 31million shares directly and indirectly may well have exercised opts since then to bring up to 40 mill

[OutToLunch]

I seem to recall from something I read recently that PT holds around 49m shares, but might be a bit out on that. Whatever -- we can all agree that PT holds exactly 1.0 metric sh1tloads of ADY and so his interests are very much in line with ours. :)

[stevo1]

Hi OTL on 19/7/17 PT owned 31million shares directly and indirectly may well have exercised opts since then to bring up to 40 mill

date should read 19/7/07

[shasta]

date should read 19/7/07

Nice run forming, with the sell side clearing a bit...

Last week daily turnover < 10m, yesterday approx 13m, today already 20m+

Now the fun starts :p

[STRAT]

Holy crap :eek: Just got back to the office to see a high of 31.5 today :D Talk about getting back on board in the nick of time
Shasta can you stay safely indoors for a few mor days mate?:cool:

[OutToLunch]

Well done Strat, a shrewd buy that was. You must be pretty chuffed to see a return on your investment come so quickly. I was away all last week and nothing happened -- the day I come back, off she goes. Usually it's the other way around -- hope this isn't an omen that I should always be in the office. :eek::eek:

[Serpie]

I sold all of mine today Strat. I'm trying to cash in on these flyers as they happen these days, rather than sitting watching them go up and down.
The money is sitting in the bank, and the silly low bids are already in elsewhere, waiting for the big red days.
Managed to scalp another 15% off SBN over the last few days as well. Having fun, and trying to stick to rule No.1 - don't lose money!
Will I get another chance to get back into ADY? - of course. It's always for sale at some price.

[STRAT]

I sold all of mine today Strat. I'm trying to cash in on these flyers as they happen these days, rather than sitting watching them go up and down.
The money is sitting in the bank, and the silly low bids are already in elsewhere, waiting for the big red days.
Managed to scalp another 15&#37; off SBN over the last few days as well. Having fun, and trying to stick to rule No.1 - don't lose money!
Will I get another chance to get back into ADY? - of course. It's always for sale at some price.
Good on ya mate.
Its not essential to get in at the bottom or get out at the top as long as you can get out higher that when you got in you are wining. If you trade a stock you are planning to be in for a while a few times along the way it can do wonders for your average.:D

Of course tomorrow you will know if you sold too cheap or not :p
Personally I think something is brewing

[Serpie]

You could be right there Strat. Sold at 30 on the way up, and it just kept on going.

Huge interest in ADY today. The close will be interesting. Good luck to all holders. I hope to re-join the party soon.

[shasta]

Good on ya mate.
Its not essential to get in at the bottom or get out at the top as long as you can get out higher that when you got in you are wining. If you trade a stock you are planning to be in for a while a few times along the way it can do wonders for your average.:D

Of course tomorrow you will know if you sold too cheap or not :p
Personally I think something is brewing

Don't be too surprised if it fails to hold 30c on close...

Serpie will have his chance again...

It's likely to run again tomorrow, when the volume triggers a few more into the stock...

We know the demerger EGM is set for March, with the intended listing of Rincon Lithium Ltd "RLL" in April subject to shareholder approval.

My pick, is still some more of the Chilean Iron Ore mines reporting JORC resources.

Will be interesting to see where the support level lies

[STRAT]

At 30c I think Serpie read the day perfectly. 27.5-28 close I recon. But its gone up all week and each days trading has been similar. Big start then fading to a little rise in the arvo with a drop at the end of the day.


I stand corrected. Looks like a strong finnish after all.

[tommy]

Great day for ADY, held up well at 30c at the end considering it looked as though momentum diminished... Anyway downtrend is now reversed until the next subprime tsunami throws another bottle of ketchup over the markets :-P
Chart looking good but what is driving up the volumes? Any rumors?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU&#37;3Arfg&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

Bought in at 26.5 the other day so am happy too, should have bought more though!

[soulman]

I sold ADY yesterday so am not looking too happy today. Oh well. I did notice the volume and buyers the past 2 days but it wasn't a long-term hold. The chart looks positive.

[JackSprat]

The reason its all going upward guys is because the Fed is throwing another $190b into the mix. However, on top of that, there is something afoot with ADY. 35m shares traded is getting up there even for ADY.

Good on you Serpie. Always feels good to make a profit. :D

[Serpie]

I think I've lost my nerve Jack! Selling on spikes has never been my style, but my style hasn't been working lately, so time to try something else.

I think that there were a few that expected ADY to taper off towards the end of the day, but, when it didn't, jumped back in before close.
PT did say that now that he was back on deck that the info flow would start again. I'd expect news from ADY, probably about Santa Barbara, before the end of the week.

[OutToLunch]

I think something's cooking alright. We've been at the mercy of traders and their 1-2c games for so long now that I was skeptical of what was going on today (especially after yesterday's pump and dump action), but over 30m shares traded in a day is big stuff for ADY, with a strong price rise to match.

Serpie good on you for selling into the strength -- if I were a short term trader I would have been tempted to do the same once it hit 31 early on, except that by the close today things did look like they were going to be different. The next couple of days will be telling -- by week's end I'm picking either high 20s or high 30s, the latter if Phil come to the party with an announcement and the Yanks don't crap all over the markets. Having said that, tomorrow morning soon after opening might be another chance for short termers to realise a profit, if we get a spike followed by the usual pullback. (PS -- congrats Serpie on being a proud Dad from a fellow PD. :))

[pago]

I think I've lost my nerve Jack! Selling on spikes has never been my style, but my style hasn't been working lately, so time to try something else.

I think that there were a few that expected ADY to taper off towards the end of the day, but, when it didn't, jumped back in before close.
PT did say that now that he was back on deck that the info flow would start again. I'd expect news from ADY, probably about Santa Barbara, before the end of the week.

hi guys ,ady was a buy at24/25c.dont trade .give it 1.2.3 months cheers pago

[STRAT]

hi guys ,ady was a buy at24/25c.dont trade .give it 1.2.3 months cheers pagoHi Pago,
Why not:confused:
My first buy was at 25 and my average is now 18 by doing just that and that includes buying some at 47:o

[Serpie]

I bought a heap at 24c last week, which brought my average down to 30c (after buying at 42 and 38). So when I saw 30c again I went for it. Nice to have an opportunity to heal some of the wounds of early January, get the cash back in the bank and live to fight another day with another lesson under my belt.

[shasta]

Hi Pago,
Why not:confused:
My first buy was at 25 and my average is now 18 by doing just that and that includes buying some at 47:o

Pago has a point.

Ive stopped trading ADY as we could get caught out with the demerger dates & details at anytime.

Risky business trading it so close to this ann, so don't get caught out

Remember the evaporation rate was "ahead" of the scheduled 108 days to the 16th April, & we will need approx a month between the EGM & listing RLL.

We have to get the valuations BEFORE the EGM, so working backwards from PT's original dates means we could get the Lithium figures ANYTIME.

ADY has a knack of having Friday arvo anns :cool:

[STRAT]

Yeah Shasta I agree with all that and if the past is anything to go by todays trading feels like a pre curser to an ann. Pagos post was a tad ambiguous so I was just looking for a bit more ;)

[Serpie]

Update released on Lithium and Santa Barbara activities. All is going well, and lithium production is exceeding expectations.

Although de-merger has been pushed back another month. Plenty of time for a re-entry!

Should be another strong day for ADY.

[JackSprat]

So, here it is: All looking pretty good...................

RINCON SALAR UPDATE
Headlines
One tonne of lithium Carbonate produced at high grade from pilot plant
Monthly pilot plant production expected to be 10 tonnes per MONTH before expansion
Project finance proceeding according to timetable
Tender process for agency and sale of 10% lithium products completed first phase
The Board of Directors is delighted to announce that:
• The pilot plant at the Rincon was successfully commissioned on 20 December 2007
and is now operating above expectations for production volumes, with the first
production of lithium carbonate produced on 25 January 2008.
• This one tonne of lithium carbonate has been produced with a purity of 99.0+%
exceeding the expectations from previous research indicating that future processing
will enable production of high purity lithium products.
• The production boreholes from where the brines are extracted are performing above
their expected production capacity and have the properties to yield four times the
required volume for a plant in full production at 17,000 tonnes per annum.
• The Rio Grande Salar that was recently acquired is now entering into production and
we expect the first commercial output of sodium sulphate, a major input into the
production process, in May 2008 in advance of our scheduled production date.
• The pilot plant will reach a steady state continuous production in early April of 10
tonnes per month as planned giving the successful commissioning, we are
immediately implementing our expansion to a full size plant by trebling the size of the
ponds in the next three months.
• The initial operating costs which have not yet reached optimisation have been
contained to well below the market price for the products.
• Basic engineering for the full-scale plant is now complete and detailed engineering
and quotations for major items is underway.
• We continue to plan for full plant production in 2009.
• Project financing continues with legal diligence and engineering due diligence
underway.
• The company is implementing a strategic program for the identification and acquisition
of further mineral resources in the region. This project is being managed by Dr
Alonso.
We are now investigating by-products from lithium and magnesium hydroxide production with
the view to increase earnings from the existing production.
Cia Minera Santa Barbara
The first ship for 2008, is scheduled to arrive on 20th February to deliver a cargo of
approximately 43,600 tonnes to WISCO, our client in China. This is the first of four shipments
in the first half of calendar 2008 under the 2006 Sales and purchase agreement. We are
expecting to finalise the 2008 agreement shortly. The value of this shipment is US$3.248
million.
Demerger
The demerger continues but due to timing of expert reporting and applications for waivers to
ASX and ASIC, the timetable has been deferred for one month, with the EGM due to be held
in April 2008.

[shasta]

Pago has a point.

Ive stopped trading ADY as we could get caught out with the demerger dates & details at anytime.

Risky business trading it so close to this ann, so don't get caught out

Remember the evaporation rate was "ahead" of the scheduled 108 days to the 16th April, & we will need approx a month between the EGM & listing RLL.

We have to get the valuations BEFORE the EGM, so working backwards from PT's original dates means we could get the Lithium figures ANYTIME.

ADY has a knack of having Friday arvo anns :cool:

Not too surprised about the extra month delay in putting al this together

Even from the timeline i mentioned above, didnt give much leeway at all.

Li @ 99.0&#37; purity attracts a $US6,000 per Tonne price, so very encouraging to see them mention this can be increased! (99.5% Li attracts $US6,500T)

Also as mentioned on this thread, 2 solid days turnover with SP increases & out pops the ann.

Still Iron Ore JORC resources due, perhaps tomorrow so we close >35c?

One of the more predictable stocks on the ASX :cool:

[OutToLunch]

Yes a very nice announcement. ADY have proven that the Li production process works, and better than expected too. That's a very major milestone ticked off which de-risks the entire operation considerably.

I've been in touch with PT who tells me that they can "easily" produce Li carbonate at 99.99%+ purity, but the extra processing required to squeeze out those last impurities is very expensive and there just isn't the demand out there for chemical-grade product like there is for the slightly lower-grade (99.5%) product. So it doesn't look as though they will be trying too hard to increase the grade by much, unless the demand is there.

PT also commented that they are looking to significantly expand potash production in response to the red-hot potash market, so presumably we will hear more about that before long as well.

Note too the comments about ADY undertaking exploration for further mineral resources in the region -- perhaps there will be some more pressies for the shareholders to be unwrapped in the future.

All in all, she's shaping up to be a beauty. :cool:

[shasta]

I've got quite a few ADY but I feel PT always manages to put out a release that has all the shareholders feeling warm and fuzzy and buzzing with excitement. He always seems to throw them a further tantalizing morsel to dream up further wealth with.
He's a very accomplished spruiker, but he is starting to make me nervous.

ADY exists solely on debt - and as far as I know the only contract and revenue they have "secured" is the 2006 WISCO contract which is still "dependant" on shipping availability and will drag into FY2009 as well.
The rest that PT has talked about is still unconfirmed. No contracts, no deliveries, nothing.

If the tender plans or further contracts do not go ahead in the next quarter, then, considering their latest expansion plans, they will soon have drawn down the last $15m or so of the debt facility they have been using. IO revenue will help to offset their costs but it's not huge and there won't be much cash floating around.

Anyone else feel the same?
Not game to post that on HC or TS for fear of death threats against my grandmother or something!

Good point actually...

ADY will get the Li 10% tender cash to ensure we don't require a credit facility.

The Iron Ore shipments are worth just over $US3m each & thats the problem.

We need the Iron Ore stock pile to be shipped...

I will email PT directly to see how they envisage sorting out the shipping & what penalties exist in the contract for non supply/delays...

To be fair, its the one thing holding ADY back at present, & once they sort out the shipping problem, they can ramp up the IO business.

The Iron Ore business at full production will accrue revenues > $US100m per year, so cashflow won't be an issue, post split.

[tommy]

Wow, I didnt expect that gap at open to be closed so quickly

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU&#37;3Aady&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

Typical buy on rumor, sell on news?

let's see how long it will take to hit 40c again...or 25c :P

[shasta]

Wow, I didnt expect that gap at open to be closed so quickly

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Aady&draw.x=0&draw.y=0 (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU&#37;3Aady&draw.x=0&draw.y=0)

Typical buy on rumor, sell on news?

let's see how long it will take to hit 40c again...or 25c :P

You gotta laugh at the blatant SP manipulation at close.

From Stockness - 54 trades went thru after official trading (after the time the market in general can trade).

In total 1012 trades, 24,115,584 turinover, last trade 30.0c, VWAP 32.99c

I thought the whole reason for having the "matching period" after trading was to stop SP manipulation, you can't tell me trades 10% below VWAP after hours are genuine!

It has closed the gap, & is NOT traders closing out positions, i just get miffed when the market allows this, when normal investors/traders cant.

[shasta]

It will be a bigger issue post split Shasta as the lithium side won't have much revenue at all except from the pilot plant for well over a year.

"If" the tender process is successful, the $50m or so from the tender is scheduled as a deposit requirement for the finance for the lithium plant so it's not for admin or normal opex. In other words it is destined for the lithium plant development.

That $100m revenue from the IO will not be until 2010 at least I figure.

Major

Post split i'm expecting Rincon Lithium Ltd (RLL) to make a placement to 1 of the companies from the tender process, perhaps a car manufacturer to ensure supply...

Being a bit of a skeptic, hows this...

RLL to list with around 280m shares on offer...

Lets hypothetically say Toyota* want in for a supply agreement

To get say 19.99&#37; & a seat on the board, would require a 70m placement

Total shares on issue now 350m (lets say the 70m were at $1?)

Assuming the SP is above $1, RLL offer a 3:7 rights issue (or SPP) & we end up with around 500m shares on issue, a SP around $1 & a market cap around $500m.

Not bad for a company in the early stages of production & modest revenue.

[tommy]

Hi Shasta,

I wonder what the implications of the "last minute manipulation" today are for tomorrow's open?

Will the uptrend lose momentum? I don't think ADY is overbought yet, and expect the rise to continue although I hope the person who dumped it at the close didn't do so based on something we don't know...

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,

I wonder what the implications of the "last minute manipulation" today are for tomorrow's open?

Will the uptrend lose momentum? I don't think ADY is overbought yet, and expect the rise to continue although I hope the person who dumped it at the close didn't do so based on something we don't know...

PT likes to have a few "tricks" up his sleeve...

I reckon we have a good chance of getting another ann tomorrow.

We are due news on some of the other non JORC Chilean IO mines.

We already have an 89m IO JORC resource & i expect this to be substantially re-rated when all the mines have a JORC resource & then are operational.

We have IO stock piled already, just not enough ships to move it!

[tommy]

PT likes to have a few "tricks" up his sleeve...

I reckon we have a good chance of getting another ann tomorrow.



Fingers crossed, hopefully positive announcements to keep the share price moving... upwards!

I am a bit gutted that I didn't buy MDX the other day... oh well, can't win all the time.

[Serpie]

With a VWAP of 33, if we'd closed at 36 would we all be complaining? We have to take the good with the bad fellas.
Plenty of techies watching this one though, so I can see why some would want to "tweak" the C of the OHLC figures though. 2,000,000 shares went through in the closing auction though, so I wouldn't class this as manipulation, which is usually done on small volumes.

Despite the odd close, todays ann regarding the lithium pilot plant was excellent I thought. Nice to see mention of the investigation of further earnings from "by-products" (read potash) and possible further acquisitions by the local lad Dr Alonso. And everything going to plan, ahead of both exptectation and programme.

[shasta]

To much guesswork in all that for me Shasta!

ADY have said there will be a small placement at 70c but that's about as far as it goes so far.

I hope that they have the finances under control but when PT already starts to talk of 4 times the capacity and early expansions plans and new discoveries on their tenements and extra riches from the processesing, the Americas greatest geologist etc. etc. etc., I think it would be better if he assured shareholders that they will actually have the cashflow to do all this first and comfortably meet their debt obligations.

Otherwise, I'm a little concerned at his rampant behaviour.

Major

I really do rate Phillip Thomas as our MD...

He has a decent size holding & has aligned his interests with ours...

Compare hin to say the management of Uran for example, they take forever to reply & give the impression they would rather not.

PT has always emailed me back personally & directed me to the right people, where he can't answer.

Have a look at the ADY team, PT has assembled a wealth of talent & surrounds himself with those who he believes can deliver.

Granted he has big plans & they are a little too ambitious this soon, but the fact he truly believes in his team, made my put my trust & $$$$ in him.

ADY is just over 50&#37; of my invested capital as i believe within 12 - 18 months he will have achieved what he has stated.

I've backed him, & many others have too

BTW - I posted on H/C & on here my thoughts re ADY & a possible split well before it was announced, i'd be quite happy if my hypothetical scenerio above came off!

[pago]

PT likes to have a few "tricks" up his sleeve...

I reckon we have a good chance of getting another ann tomorrow.

We are due news on some of the other non JORC Chilean IO mines.

We already have an 89m IO JORC resource & i expect this to be substantially re-rated when all the mines have a JORC resource & then are operational.

We have IO stock piled already, just not enough ships to move it!

hi shasta ,i agree more good news to come,its been highlighted.ady as a small cap with big upside is as good as it gets.normal investing rules apply,if your risk adverse no more then 10% of your portfolio.i see the close today as profit taking,traders got 20% over the last few days,cheers pago.

[OutToLunch]

Hi Major,

I too would very much like to see confirmed contracts, which (along with the sovereign risk side of thing) is, as I see it, the last of the major risks associated with ADY/RLL. However with Fe prices rising so fast and Li demand also looking very strong, presumably there isn't to much incentive to lock in contracts too early (unless they contain clauses benchmarking prices to the going rate). PT has previously said that they have plenty of cash in the bank in Chile (which can't be included in the appendix 5b due to reporting regulations), and shipping is due to resume on Feb 20 with a big stockpile of ore waiting at port to be despatched.

Also, as I understand it, the Fe and Li operations have been run independently of each other, ie., revenues from Fe are not being used to progress Rincon.

The big news yesterday was proof that the Li production process is working just fine. That's a significant step forward.

The thing that *does* concern me a bit is the amount of hype now surrounding ADY -- it's starting to sound a bit like the 1980s all over again -- even though I have backed this baby to the limit, the chatsite pattern (cheer those with good comments, flame any criticism) is a bit of a worry!

[shasta]

Hi Major,

I too would very much like to see confirmed contracts, which (along with the sovereign risk side of thing) is, as I see it, the last of the major risks associated with ADY/RLL. However with Fe prices rising so fast and Li demand also looking very strong, presumably there isn't to much incentive to lock in contracts too early (unless they contain clauses benchmarking prices to the going rate). PT has previously said that they have plenty of cash in the bank in Chile (which can't be included in the appendix 5b due to reporting regulations), and shipping is due to resume on Feb 20 with a big stockpile of ore waiting at port to be despatched.

Also, as I understand it, the Fe and Li operations have been run independently of each other, ie., revenues from Fe are not being used to progress Rincon.

The big news yesterday was proof that the Li production process is working just fine. That's a significant step forward.

The thing that *does* concern me a bit is the amount of hype now surrounding ADY -- it's starting to sound a bit like the 1980s all over again -- even though I have backed this baby to the limit, the chatsite pattern (cheer those with good comments, flame any criticism) is a bit of a worry!

OTL

Not sure ADY is now some "Hotcopper" type stock with blue sky hype etc

At 30c the market cap is still around $300m, ie not some < $20m market cap spec that gets pumped & dumped by rampers...

I like the fact we have been told the Li tender process was highly competitive, meaning we will likely have a scramble with the companies that lost out on the main contracts, to try & do deals to access Li supply.

I'm picking the Potash will also attract numerous companies & another tender process should eventuate.

Today should be interesting...

[STRAT]

Today should be interesting...Well be lucky to hold at 30 today Im thinkin

[spruik]

You gotta laugh at the blatant SP manipulation at close.

From Stockness - 54 trades went thru after official trading (after the time the market in general can trade).

In total 1012 trades, 24,115,584 turinover, last trade 30.0c, VWAP 32.99c

I thought the whole reason for having the "matching period" after trading was to stop SP manipulation, you can't tell me trades 10% below VWAP after hours are genuine!

It has closed the gap, & is NOT traders closing out positions, i just get miffed when the market allows this, when normal investors/traders cant.

If I can place & vary buy/sell orders between 4pm and 4:10pm than anyone can (Etrade). Have done exactly that from time to time and it's quite easy to adjust the order several times during that period to just below or above the estimated opening price so you can be (almost) certain your order gets filled.

Looks to me like informed sources buy heeps every time a day or so before an ann comes out, then sell during or at the end of the day of the ann (presumably the same characters). Insider trading, most likely by those in ADY's office, or their contacts.

Or those who exercised options at 10 cents are selling? In that case they don't believe it will reach $1+ any time soon.


Anyone else feel the same?
Not game to post that on HC or TS for fear of death threats against my grandmother or something!


I do agree with Major. Must say, market updates have been extremely timely quite consistently over a long time - designed to maximise the SP. Whereas that is a good thing for any company, I have been wondering if someone there is out to make trillions...

[tricha]

U R all missing the big picture - 1st there is oil at $90 a barrel for quite a while, 2nd comes Lithium as it is the knight in shining armour and then comes little Admiralty Resources.

Shasta sums it up quite nicely - "I really do rate Phillip Thomas as our MD...

He has a decent size holding & has aligned his interests with ours...

Compare hin to say the management of Uran for example, they take forever to reply & give the impression they would rather not.

PT has always emailed me back personally & directed me to the right people, where he can't answer.

Have a look at the ADY team, PT has assembled a wealth of talent & surrounds himself with those who he believes can deliver.

Granted he has big plans & they are a little too ambitious this soon, but the fact he truly believes in his team, made my put my trust & $$$$ in him.

ADY is just over 50% of my invested capital as i believe within 12 - 18 months he will have achieved what he has stated."

PT has big plans and that is because he has a key ingredent for the future of the world, beyond peak oil.
Thats why I believe Lithium demand is due to increase expodentially, beyond belief.

1st of the block to use lithium Ion Batteries - cell phones and laptops.

Now we are into the power tools with much bigger batteries.

3rd of the block, we are due to ram it into vehicles of every shape and size, Huge batteries.

Have you got your Lithium yet ??? This little company has got the potential of Paladen and the fuse is lit. Billions of dollars worth of Lithium.
Old news, but technology is moving so fast, expect a quantim leap in Lithium technology !

.................................................. ................................................
Lithium Batteries for Hybrid Cars By John Voelcker

First Published January 2007
Hybrid cars need to travel farther in electric-only mode, and that means lithium-ion battery technologies have a lot riding on them



http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/images/jan07/images/lithbat01.jpg PHOTO: General Motors
Chevrolet's Volt is the first series hybrid concept car shown by a major manufacturer. In a series hybrid, the engine's only job is to crank a generator; electric power does all the rest of the work.

In late November General Motors announced plans to release a vehicle that will be able to go long distances in electric-only mode. It thus became the first U.S. company to commit to producing a so-called plug-in hybrid design—one that has batteries so capacious that they can be recharged not only by the engine but also from wall current in the garage. It represents the next way station along the path to an all-electric vehicle.
Troy Clarke, president of GM North America, told IEEE Spectrum that a plug-in version of the Saturn Vue Green Line sport-utility vehicle could hit dealer lots 24 months after the launch, in 2009, of a standard hybrid version using GM's "two-mode hybrid" transmission. He would not, however, commit to a specific date or even a year.
Tellingly, GM has not yet announced where it will get the lithium-ion batteries that any plug-in requires. Only such batteries—the kind used in laptops—pack enough energy to sustain electric-only mode for 32 kilometers (20 miles), the range generally regarded as necessary. In a statement released on 4 January, in the runup to the Detroit Motor Show, the company did say that it had agreed to support the battery technology programs of two joint ventures, and that it would also assess the technologies of other, unnamed companies.
Beyond plug-ins: the Volt
Although plug-in hybrids involve larger batteries, their fundamental design hardly varies from that of other, mechanical-drive cars. More radical is the “series hybrid electric” car, which powers the wheels with electric motors and uses the onboard combustion engine only to run a backup generator that recharges the batteries as needed.
The Chevrolet Volt, unveiled to the press on 7 January at Detroit’s North American International Auto Show, is the first-ever series hybrid concept car shown by a major manufacturer. For an animated tour of its innards, click here (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/lithbat_flash.html). Its 1.0-liter, 3-cylinder turbocharged engine runs an onboard 53-kilowatt generator that recharges a 16-kilowatthour lithium-ion battery made of 80 four-volt cells. The battery pack’s volume is 100 L, one-third as much as the lead-acid batteries in GM’s 1990s-issue electric car, the EV1. GM’s targeted maximum weight for the pack is 180 kilograms (400 pounds). The company also wants the battery to last at least 10 years, through 4,000 full-discharge cycles.
The battery pack would charge in less than 6.5 hours, power a 120-kW electric motor delivering 320 newton-meters of peak torque, and go 64 km (40 miles) in all-electric mode on battery charge alone. The 12-gallon gasoline tank would add an additional 965 km (600 miles) to that range.
“We don’t have a battery pack yet,” said Tony Posawatz, the vehicle line director. He confirmed that the vehicle shown in Detroit doesn’t yet run.
Lithium ion: light and cheap
Everything thus depends on the pace of development of lithium-ion batteries. Right now they’re the only candidate for the job, because they store more than twice as much energy (110 to 130 watt hours per kilogram) as the next-best technology, the nickel-metal-hydride (NiMH) batteries in today’s gas-electric hybrids. The reason: lithium is the lightest solid element, so it’s easily portable. What’s more, it’s cheap.
To make lithium-ion batteries practical for mass-produced electric-drive vehicles, new technologies must increase the energy the batteries store and the speed with which they can discharge it. They must also lengthen cycle life to 15 years or 241 000 km (150 000 miles)—the average life of a vehicle. Finally, they must keep the cost as low as possible.
The technology has advanced quickly, says Mark Duvall, manager of technology development for electric transportation at the Electric Power Research Institute, in Palo Alto, Calif. He’s “impressed and bullish” on the prospects for new lithium variants, some of which EPRI has tested to ascertain their cycle lives.
The first production car to use lithium-ion batteries was the Toyota Vitz CVT 4, a small car sold only in Japan. It used a four-cell, 12 ampere-hour lithium-ion battery pack to power its electric accessories and restart the engine after idle stop. More recently, Tesla Motors, in San Carlos, Calif., has offered the Tesla Roadster, an all-electric sports car that uses 6831 lithium-ion cells, each roughly the size of a double-A battery. They give the car up to 400 km (250 miles) of range, as well as the breathtaking acceleration of 0 to 100 kilometers per hour (0 to 60 miles per hour) in less than 4 seconds.
Why use so many little cells? First, because they’re readily available, and second, because current lithium technology is susceptible to thermal runaway—a problem underlined recently by flaming laptops (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/aug06/comments/1479)—and larger cells mean greater risk. The Tesla’s 410-kg (900-pound) battery pack is stuffed not only with cells but also with sensors and control logic designed to detect and isolate any misbehaving cell.




Better batteries through chemistry
The cathodes of current lithium-ion batteries are made of lithium-cobalt metal oxide (LiCoO2). This material is pricey, and it can become unstable and release oxygen if the cell is overcharged. One alternative is to replace the cobalt in the cathodes with iron phosphates, which won’t release oxygen under any charge and therefore will not burn.
A123Systems, in Watertown, Mass., first launched a lithium-ion phosphate battery this past fall in Black & Decker’s DeWalt power tools. A123Systems claims its batteries can be recharged 10 times as often as conventional lithium-ion designs, charge to 90 percent capacity in 5 minutes, and charge fully in less than 15 minutes. Conventional lithium-ion models, by contrast, can take twice as long.
In May, the company unveiled a battery pack it said could be ready for electric vehicle use within three years. It’s smaller than a carton of cigarettes and weighs barely 4.5 kg (10 lbs.), one-fifth as heavy as an equivalent NiMH battery. A123 is taking part in one of the two joint ventures to which GM has awarded battery development contracts. Its partner is Cobasys, of Orion, Michigan, itself a joint venture of Chevron Technology Ventures and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. GM's other contract is with a joint venture between Johnson Controls, of Milwaukee, and Saft Advanced Power Systems, of Paris.
Austin, Texas–based Valence Technology also uses iron-phosphate cathodes for its Saphion battery. The technology is used in the Segway, the self-stabilizing scooter, and in unofficial conversions that aim to increase the range of a Toyota Prius.
Customarily, the anode of a lithium-ion battery is made of graphite, which can store only a limited amount of energy. Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories, in Livermore, Calif., have developed anodes using a composite of graphite and silicon that can quadruple storage capacity.
Late this year, 3M Co., in St. Paul, Minn., will deliver still another kind of anode, based on amorphous silicon, which the company says will store twice the energy of today’s lithium batteries. Other researchers are trying to make anodes of alloys of lithium and two other metals, generally antimony mixed with either copper, manganese, or indium. Such three-metal alloys should also increase storage capacity.
Cells now being developed by Altair Nanotechnologies, based in Reno, Nev., switch the lithium from the cathode to the anode, forming a compound called lithium-titanate spinel (Li4Ti5O12). The company says that the cells recharge in 3 minutes and deliver three times as much power as the conventional design, and at a great operating range of temperatures: –30 °C to 249 °C (–22 °F to 480 °F). It also says that its batteries can keep on ticking after 9000 recharging cycles, compared with 1000 for conventional cells. Altair’s battery, however, is not yet in production.
The big gamble
Once lithium batteries have met energy-storage, power-delivery, durability, and cost goals, a massive investment in manufacturing capacity will be needed to produce them in bulk for use in cars. But the market is crowded and competitive; close to a dozen manufacturers have announced new lithium battery technologies—with no guarantees that automakers will buy. And that number omits the in-house battery research that the major automakers themselves are conducting.
Take Toyota, which builds the lion’s share of hybrid vehicles globally. In 2005 it purchased General Motors’ share of Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (which manufactures Subarus)—in part, analysts suggest, to get Fuji’s share of its joint venture with Tokyo Electric Power to develop automotive lithium batteries. Subaru has already announced that in 2009 it will build and sell the R1e, an electric version of its tiny R1 urban car that will use lithium-ion batteries. Mitsubishi Motors, in Tokyo, will do much the same with its “i” urban car, most likely using batteries from Litcel, its joint venture with TDK Corp.
Analysts estimate the price premium for today’s hybrids at roughly US $5000, some $3000 of which goes to cover the cost of a NiMH battery pack. At today’s gasoline and electricity prices, you’d need six to 10 years of operation to pay it back. But the analysts also say the hybrid premium could fall to $2000 in five years ($1200 or more of it the cost of lithium-ion batteries), which would allow for a three-year payback.
Electric-drive cars won’t be here this year—or next year—but they will arrive sooner than you might think
The payback period could be longer for a plug-in hybrid, because it would have larger, costlier batteries—though fuel mileage is hard to calculate. It all depends on how much of the mileage is covered in electric mode, with power taken from the grid, and how much in gasoline mode.
Powerful forces—global warming, possible carbon taxes, global political instability—seem to be lining up in ways that will bring us electric-drive cars that will be feasible and affordable for the first time ever. They won’t arrive this year, or next year…but they’ll be here sooner than you might think. It all comes down to one question: when will the lithium-ion batteries be ready?



About the Author

John Voelcker has written about automotive technology, home building, and other topics for 20 years. He covered software and microprocessor design for IEEE Spectrum from 1985 to 1990. A connoisseur of vintage British automobiles, he writes Spectrum’s annual “Top Ten Tech Cars” feature.

P.S there is soverign risk to consider so heres a word of caution from Pago - "hi shasta ,i agree more good news to come,its been highlighted.ady as a small cap with big upside is as good as it gets.normal investing rules apply,if your risk adverse no more then 10% of your portfolio.i see the close today as profit taking,traders got 20% over the last few days,cheers pago."

[spruik]

I will be the first to buy one with a range of 900km between charges (distance between Sydney-Melbourne including some reserve). At the very least 300km, Daylesford-Melbourne-Daylesford (includes 100km reserve and pottering about in Melbourne).

Lithium batteries do not replace oil or coal of course. Batteries only store energy.

[tricha]

I will be the first to buy one with a range of 900km between charges (distance between Sydney-Melbourne including some reserve). At the very least 300km, Daylesford-Melbourne-Daylesford (includes 100km reserve and pottering about in Melbourne).

Lithium batteries do not replace oil or coal of course. Batteries only store energy.

U R missing the big picture

U = Uranium = power

And what % of people only travel 80km max a day ?

[spruik]

U R missing the big picture

U = Uranium = power

And what % of people only travel 80km max a day ?



Ah yes... now for my U-car!!! LOVE a nuclear powered engine, it'll go without "recharging" for at least a year.

In the big cities MANY people commute every day, to/from work 100km easily.

More realistic, nuclear powered grid, lithium battery cars with 1000km range is what I like.

[shasta]

U R missing the big picture

U = Uranium = power

And what % of people only travel 80km max a day ?



Exactly why my 3 stocks held, cover ...

Lithium
Uranium
Oil
Gas

That's why i'm only interested in Energy & Alternative Energy...

There is only so many viable energy options :eek:

[shasta]

so at FULL production (2009), ADY has Li revenue of US$100m (17000 x 6000)

and at FULL IO (2010?), ADY has revenue of around US$100m also?


with some talking the share worth $1, or about $1B market cap,

what are the anticipated margins on both these operations?

Not sure of the costs involved, but remember PT giving guidance in an ann a while back.

Points to note:

- Rincon will earn in excess of $US20m revenue from the Potash on top of the Li products.

- Admiralty has the permit to mine up to 3.9m tonnes of Iron Ore per annum, & is trying to obtain the approval to expand this beyond 5m tonnes.

- Full production should be realised during 2009, & don't forget the other "bits & pieces" non core projects (the Nickel, Zinc/Lead, & 10% holding in the hip replacement company.)

Will post more later based on known figures in reference to the original State One valuation.

[tricha]

interesting reading...

China Lithium Carbonate Market Forecast Report, 2008-2010


Along with the continuous input of large-scaled lithium carbonate projects in China, the demand and supply balance of lithium carbonate will worsen soon. The global lithium carbonate surplus will amount to 13.2 thousand tons in 2007, and it will become worse in 2008. The supply will be much larger than the demand, which will lead to a rapid price drop.

Thats what China would like u to believe, because thats what they do, while going about securing their share, a bit like the iron ore propaganda.
I'm betting they are wrong and lithium demand will go through the roof and the price will double.

Heres the bonus ;)

Lack of Listed Potash Plays Means All Are Going Higher
By David J. DesLauriers
13 Feb 2008 at 03:27 PM GMT-05:00

TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Anyone who watches Business News Network or can follow a chart knows that potash is a hot commodity and that listed potash equities are equally hot.
The reality for investors is that there are very few ways to play potash – and it is not going to be a situation like the uraniums where all of a sudden we have even, in this case, more than 25 juniors.

Currently Potash One [TSX-V:KCL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KCL.v)], Athabasca Potash [TSX:API (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=API.to)], Anglo Minerals [TSX-V:ALM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ALM.V)] and Raytec [TSX-V:RAY (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RAY.V)] are to our knowledge the only ways to play potash unless you want to buy the majors like Potash Corp of Saskatchewan [TSX:POT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=POT.to)] or Agrium [TSX:AGU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AGU.to)].
Saskatchewan’s potash belt which is host to 9 mines and 32% of the world’s annual potash output has now been completely staked (not one more claim available in the belt as of last Friday) – but there are only around 10 companies that control that acreage:

Anglo Minerals [TSX-V:ALM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ALM.V)]
BHP [NYSE:BHP (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BHP); LSE:BLT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BLT.l); ASX:BHP (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BHP.ax)]
Kennecott (Rio Tinto Group [NYSE:RTP (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RTP); LSE:RIO (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RIO.l); ASX:RIO (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RIO.ax)])
Agrium [TSX:AGU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AGU.to)]
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan [TSX:POT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=POT.to)]
Athabasca Potash [TSX:API (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=API.to)]
Potash One [TSX-V:KCL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KCL.v)]
Mosaic [NYSE:MOS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MOS)]
Saskatchewan Syndicate
Canada Potash Corp.
Raytec [TSX-V:RAY (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RAY.V)] and a few other small juniors
In scanning the list, only Canada Potash Corp and the Saskatchewan Syndicate, who collectively control nearly half the belt, or 5 million acres, are not public. It is also known that neither of these groups have any intention of piecing off their acreage to juniors – they are going to keep them within their own respective vehicles.
What this means is that the next couple of stories to market are going to be met with an exceptionally warm reception and robust valuations. Currently listed plays (see above) are already doing extremely well and only one company on the above list isn’t a producer, a conglomerate or a player with a market capitalization in the centi-million range.
That story is Raytec, which is up today trading at around 65 cents per share. We believe the company will be able to do a financing here shortly that will position the appropriate institutions. Factoring in a financing the company probably has a C$25 million market capitalization fully diluted at current prices.
Given the lack of product, the high demand for potash itself and for investment product, it is highly likely that Raytec will pop to the C$1 mark here in short order.
The opportunity is therefore both speculative and fundamental, with short and long term potential appreciation for shareholders. Given the lack of product and the degree to which the space is in favour, the prospect of names such as this popping in a vacuum is substantial. We believe that the potash trade is only just getting started, and as previously pointed out, is unique because not only does the underlying commodity have rising price action, but unlike any other precious metal, base metal, or mineral play that we’ve seen in this cycle, the universe of product for public investors is tiny – and it takes 7 years and a couple billion dollars to build a new mine.
Despite handsome runs across the board, recent retracements are a buying opportunity and going forward, most retracements will be buying opportunities in the context of the greater potash bull and its certain longevity in light of supply and demand realities. As the story really gets out there, the most levered players could deliver spectacular returns.

[shasta]

I see Potash is a bonus of $20m to ADY (RLL) according to Shasta but what is the cost/ margin on this one.

I am surprised after 93 pages, the answer to the forecast margin is not available easily for the main products.

Must be a cash cost somewhere? (haven`t read the whole thread though)




I am interested in ADY with all the talk, but seems there is a lot of talk about potential and not enough hard numbers for a company at this stage. ie $300m market cap.


at this stage I prefer MLI (gold and U) with a similar market cap ($350m) but am still looking into ADY, perhaps much closer to full production.

interestingly, MLI is expecting revenues around $200m too, but they are set to produce by Oct/Nov this year and ramping up quickly early 2009. Cash costs are clearly stated at $450ounce. 1mlbs U is expected to be in the lowest quartile of world wide production costs.


be interesting to track both, guess I should start a thread on MLI.:o

Potash is a by-product of the Lithium, therefore NO direct costs associated with it.

Have a look at page 59 with my valuations on ADY/RLL

I will update them as soon as i have more details (which havent been released to the market yet).

[STRAT]

Wow SS. Have you been having a slice of friendliness cake and a polite pill with your morning Coffee or what?:D

[tommy]

Enjoy da presentation:

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/presentation/98f13708210194c475687be6106a3b84.pdf

______________

Today's announcement fails to excite, yawn.

MV Hellenic Horizon arrives on 21 February 2008, 43,600 tonnes
190,000 Tonnes of iron ore fines stockpiled

Headline Summary
• Production of iron ore has reached 190,000 tonnes of final product, stockpiled at
the mine, and the port.
• The MV Hellenic Horizon has notified Santa Barbara that it will arrive at the Caleta
Port on 21 February at 10.00am.
• One of the large primary crushers on back order has arrived at the plant site at
Vallenar and will be installed shortly to further enhance production rates.
• A further draw down of US$5m has been requested from Cornell Capital to assist
with working capital.
The Board of Directors are pleased to announce that sufficient iron ore has been produced to
complete the WISCO 2006 stage two, sales and purchase contract with sufficient left over for
sales under the 2008 FOB pricing schedules.
WISCO has agreed to amend the 2006 CFR sales and purchase agreement to be extended
for delivery over 2008 to ensure Santa Barbara is able to use Panamax ships to reduce freight
charges. In addition WISCO, has agreed to a price increase for the remaining tonnage to be
delivered under the 2006 SPA.
The quantities for late 2008 and 2009 and 2010 are subject to successful completion of the
port upgrade at Candelaria where negotiations are being finalised for the project to upgrade
the port to accept Panamax ships with a loading capacity of 50-75,000 tonnes and a draft of
12.5 metres.

[STRAT]

nah, the freaks have gone into hiding, Macas on holiday and me ol mate Belgarion is just a pup these days

whats to complain about:p
Maca is still around and you talk of Belgarion as if you have known him for years. I assume that means you have been hanging here since way before the date Sector Surfa joined up;)

do you want my phone number or something?You askin me out on a date?:eek:

[tricha]

Iron price up 65% for Asian firms

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40604000/jpg/_40604995_steel203.jpg Demand from China has driven up iron ore prices

Japanese and South Korean steel mills have agreed to pay Brazilian miner Vale 65% more for iron ore this year.
Japan's Nippon Steel and South Korea's Posco said they would pay Vale $78.90 a tonne from April. It is thought JFE Steel agreed a similar price.
The settlement means iron ore prices will hit a record for the sixth year in a row on continued demand for steel to power China's construction boom.
Some believe miners Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are also keen to raise prices.
Relief
Since 2000, China has been a huge importer of steel after its domestic mining failed to keep pace with its rush to industrialise.
This phenomenon has supported the price of spot iron ore, which has almost tripled over the past decade.
There have been fears that steel makers profits could be stunted by their inability to pass on all the costs to customers, particularly as shipping costs have risen too. But shares in Nippon Steel, JFE Holdings, which owns JFE Steel, and Posco all rose on relief that the 2008 price was not greater. "The market was relieved now that one of the negative factors weighing on the stock prices has been played out," said Takashi Aoki, vice president at the equity investment division of Mizuho Asset Management.

[tobo]

........ But shares in Nippon Steel, JFE Holdings, which owns JFE Steel, and Posco all rose on relief that the 2008 price was not greater....

I can't beleive that they were thinking it might be MORE than 65% increase. Amazing.
All good.

[shasta]

I can't beleive that they were thinking it might be MORE than 65% increase. Amazing.
All good.

And the original contract has been increased to reflect higher prices.

Not bad for a contract we nearly were in breach of!

Seems they want to smooth ADY up for the next round of tenders :cool:

We have a good stock pile now & this week we get the first shipment out, am a little suprised the market didnt appreciate the ann with a small increase!

[Hawke]

While the Hawke was flying the Bangkok and Europe over the last few days.............He is very happy to see some resurgent interest in ADY.

This Co' has real prospects that I believe could easily double- tripple its market cap over the next year.

Holding tightly!

Hawke.

[STRAT]

Hawke was flying the Bangkok
Hi Hawke.

Maybe its just me but there is something about that statement thats just plain very very very wrong lol :D:D:D

[Hawke]

Yeah.....good point-still catching up on the sleep deficit!

Can admit to no cocky time in the Bangkok- but interesting place to visit.....and glad to have NZ to return to.

Hawke - safely roosted.

[tobo]

Have a look at page 59 with my valuations on ADY/RLL

from page 59 (excerpt)
State One valued ADY at $1.20 (EPS 15c) looking forward (pre-split) BEFORE all the additional iron ore JORC resources & when we held 49% of the JV (now 60%), & before we knew the full resource of the Lithium...

FE prices are due for a substantial rise, 20 - 35% in 2008 (depends on your source!), so getting to $1.50 from $1.20 isnt out of the question, & thats going from a forward P/E of 8 to 10.

Given that both ADY & RLL are conservatively expected to have revenues > $100M (the Iron Ore from Nov 07 is due to have production of 234k per month, approx $10m revenue p.m), lets split the P/E up...

* ADY = 40% (6c), RLL = 60% (9c) based on a pre-split EPS of 15c

ADY - to get EPS of 6c on 280m = profit of $17m (will exceed that easily)...etc


Shasta, I studied your valuation, and I was not sure about one point (and I could not find that State One valuation to clarify):
Referring to the bolded lines above,
should that be 6c x 280m or 980m shares since you say pre-split for the 15c?

Disc. Hold

[shasta]

Shasta, I studied your valuation, and I was not sure about one point (and I could not find that State One valuation to clarify):
Referring to the bolded lines above,
should that be 6c x 280m or 980m shares since you say pre-split for the 15c?

Disc. Hold

Hi Tobo

Damn, here i was thinking no one would disect the guff i posted!

Yes, you are right it should be based on 980m.

With the 1:3.47215 consolidation the SP & EPS should rise accordingly, so the effective P/E ratio shouldn't change, well in theory!

I will locate & repost the original State One $1.20 valuation.

[shasta]

its called saving face, most were expecting 40-60% increases

they got smoked

BHP will probably hold out for more.

Tobo

As promised the original State One $1.20 valuation (pre-split)

From State One
Admiralty Resources Ltd (ADY) - Strong Buy
Project Overview

_ Admiralty is primarily a lithium producer as of next year with forecast 20,000t of lithium brine production from the Rincon Salar alkaline salt lake in Argentina coming on stream in late 2007, with mine infrastructure under construction this quarter. Evaporation pond construction will allow pumping from the bore field, the brine then to evaporate to a salt concentrate, processed into specialty compounds including, lithium salts, soda ash and potassium chloride.

_ Lithium production from alkaline brines is, according to guidance from the company, likely to continue for a decade or more, with production rate most affected by environmental factors acting upon evaporation. Further production from Rincon Salar is certain geologically, though the rate is controlled by climate, for which predictions beyond a decade are sketchy.

_ A forward sales agreement on lithium salts, at US$24,000/t has been placed for specialty specifications over a 2,000tpa portion of production. The remainder will be sold into the open market. The 10% of production forward sold at the higher price is a US$48M revenue stream, with the remaining 90% of production of~18,000tpa providing a US$100M revenue stream at US$5,500/t.

- Admiralty Resources has 49% of the Santa Barbara iron ore project (now 60%!) in Chile. Admiralty and its partner have begun shipping the first shipments of a 940,000t contract to Wuhan Iron and Steel Company, China, worth around US$65 million to the joint venture, or A$40 million to Admiralty. Rates for FY08 are projected to be 1.8Mtpa.

_ A recent off take agreement for 1.2 million tons per annum of a 50 million ton stockpile underpins growth from the current 1.8Mtpa to a potential 5Mtpa of iron ore sales. Lack of forward contracts is not seen as a significant risk in light of high demand from China.

Further non-stockpile ore resources of 33.6Mt @ 23.5% magnetite iron exist within the JV, which can be extracted to produce high-iron low-phosphorus magnetite concentrate.

Opinion
This financial year Admiralty is set to generate around A$24M in iron ore revenue via shipment of ~240,000 tonnes of ore, with profit margins of A$45 per tonne of iron ore. This represents around A$10M in profits for FY07 on 4 months production, valuing Admiralty at a PER of 9.1x on the current share price. Our prediction for FY08 iron ore sales should see production at the 1.85Mtpa rate generate A$83M in profits to give a forecast EPS of 9c per share. Early 2008, assuming lithium production ramps up as planned, FY08 should see 6 months of lithium production come through, an A$80M-plus revenue stream. With a predicted 75% profit margin this represents $65M profit or 6c per share earnings. Taking this into account, on current share prices, FY08 earnings is 15c per share and a forecast PER of 1.6x on a 25c share price.

With current earnings growth in this and next quarter, and growing revenue streams in the next 6 to 12 months we see Admiralty as a strong growth stock.

Our recommendation is a strong speculative buy with a target of $1.20.

Investment Data:
Share Price $0.23
Ord Shares 630m
Options 105.8m
Market Capitalisation $173m
Net Cash (May 2007) $13.7m
52 week Low/High 25.5c / 7.4c
Directors:
Prof J. Ross Harper Chairman
Phillip Thomas Managing Director
Anthony Blumberg Non-Exec Director
John Anderson Non-Exec Director
Stephen Prior Company Secretary

Points to note:

1. We had 49% of the IO JV when this valuation was released, we now have 60%.

2. IO price increases are 65% + FOB for 2008 year, note our old WISCO contract has allowed for the increase to be passed on even though the delivery is behind schedule.

3. The Potash is likely to be stepped up, due to increasing pricing & demand.

4. Lithium @ 99.0% purity commands a $US6,000 per tonne price, & @ 99.5% this increases to $US6,500 per tonne.

(PT has advised to increase the Li content to 99.9% cost an extra $US2,000 per tonne, & whilst thats still highly profitable, demand for this purity is low.)

Also, in my valuation i assumed a 20 - 35% increase in IO pricing, i did not envisage a 65% increase + FOB!

Note the market cap & shares on issue have gone up since this old valuation report, the options were exercised during this period.

[tricha]

I'm off the subject but the key is the oil price and when it hits $200 a barrel, how much do u think Lithium will be a ton.

Double at least and there will be a mass panic to get battery powerd vehicles on the road.


Shasta - "As promised the original State One $1.20 valuation (pre-split)

From State One
Admiralty Resources Ltd (ADY) - Strong Buy"

Typical brokers Shasta, they can not see the woods from the trees, they are way of the price if my prediction on the price of Lithium comes true.

Spend a few dollars and read Twilight in the Desert or 1000 Barrels a Second, we are running out of cheap oil very fast.
OPEC are probably cutting oil because they can not substain the current level of production :rolleyes:

.................................................. .................................................


Oil prices slip back below $100

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44424000/jpg/_44424919_refinery_ap203b.jpg Oil market analysts think OPEC is likely to cut production in March

Oil prices have dropped back from a new record high above $100 a barrel that was hit in New York trade on Tuesday.
In Asian trade, the main contract for light, sweet crude oil fell 73 cents to $99.28 a barrel, after closing above $100 for the first time on Tuesday.
But the steep rise in the oil price knocked share prices, with Japan's Nikkei index closing down more than 3%.
Oil hit a record $100.10 a barrel on Tuesday on fears the group of Opec producing nations would cut output.
Supply worries
"It's just a bit of a correction. The market is settling down after such a massive move last night," said Peter McGuire, managing director of Commodity Warrants Australia.
After peaking at a new record of $100.10 a barrel, prices edged back to close at $100.01 on Tuesday.
Market analysts said Opec producers might cut production in response to the slowdown of the US economy, which is the world's biggest oil user.
There was also concern over supplies from Nigeria and the ongoing row between Exxon Mobil and Venezuela.
Crude oil jumped 5% to hit a record of $100.10 and closed at $100.01 on Tuesday.
Opec oil producers are due to meet next on 5 March.
Stocks rattled
Japan's Nikkei share average closed down 3.3% at 13,310.37, its lowest close since 13 February, on fears that the surge in oil prices could stoke inflation.
"The move upwards for oil prices driven by geopolitical fears may be slightly excessive but real concerns remain over the impact on corporate earnings," said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Societe Generale Asset Management.
In Hong Kong, the main Hang Seng index was down by more than 2%. Wall Street also closed lower although energy stocks rose on the back of higher oil prices. The benchmark Dow Jones slipped 10.99 points, or 0.09%, to end at 12,337.22.

[JackSprat]

Caldera - Live
190,000 tons ready to go!

[tobo]

Tobo
As promised the original State One $1.20 valuation (pre-split)
....

Many thanks for that, shasta

ToBo

[JackSprat]

I'd like to pass on my thanks as well Shasta for all the work you"ve done and the charts and statistics. Like your cool, new look as well.
Cheers
PS The MV Hellennic should be almost full and on it's way by now.

[Serpie]

The ship is still there Jack, but they're loading it up.
The ADY webcams are great!

[tricha]

Techland (http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/)
At the intersection of business and technology

Type Size http://i.cnn.net/money/.element/img/2.0/fortune/buttons/decFontInact.gif http://i.cnn.net/money/.element/img/2.0/fortune/buttons/incFontAct.gif
January 9, 2008, 12:28 am
GM chief introduces greener, safer cars at CES debut

http://fortunetechland.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/gmc2008010865619_pv.jpg?w=302&h=232 (http://fortunetechland.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/gmc2008010865619_pv.jpg)By Yi-Wyn Yen
LAS VEGAS - GM CEO Rick Wagoner announced his arrival at the Consumer Electronics Show Tuesday night by rolling up in a silver Chevy Volt. But it was another concept car that Wagoner introduced during his keynote speech that wowed the crowd — the electric-fuel cell hybrid Cadillac Provoq.
In hopes of changing negative perceptions about big American car makers, Wagoner — the first automotive chief executive to speak at CES — used his hour-long presentation to highlight GM’s vision for greener, safer, smarter cars.
Wagoner unveiled the silver Provoq, a zero-emissions protoype designed to have a 300-mile range by using a hydrogen fuel cell to charge a lithium ion battery pack. The car can be charged on a home electrical outlet and its roof sports solar panels to extend battery life. Wagoner did not say when the concept car would go into production, but GM (GM) hopes to deliver fuel-cell cars in three to four years. “With oil hitting $100 a barrel last week… the auto industry can no longer rely exclusively on oil,” he said.
GM is aggressively pushing to change its gas-guzzling image by introducing eight hybrids this year, including the Chevy Tahoe and GMC Yukon SUVs. The Chevy Volt, a battery-powered car whose range is boosted by a small engine that runs on a range of fuels, was unveiled at an auto show last year and is expected to hit showrooms around 2010. Wagoner said GM will continue to push for ethanol-based cars and expects to increase production of energy-efficient cars by 50 percent in the next four years.
Further into the future, Wagoner said he hopes cars will be smart enough to drive themselves. He highlighted a video of a self-driving Chevy Tahoe nicknamed “the Boss” that won a 60-mile DARPA race last year. The Boss will be on display starting Wednesday outside the Las Vegas Convention Center. “Someday you can do your e-mail, watch a video, apply your makeup while commuting to work. You can do all that right now, but imagine if you can do it safely,” Wagoner said.
While self-driving cars may be a thing of the future, car owners won’t have to wait long for car doors that can be locked with with cell phones and for cars that put on the brakes when stolen. GM revamped its 12-year-old OnStar safety and alarm system to slow down a stolen car when it’s being chased by the police. It is also working with Verizon (VZ), Qualcomm (QCOM), and LG on mobile phones that can activate car alarms, lock doors and download driving directions. Said Wagoner: “This has been a massive learning experience for us of understanding where and how the auto and electronic industry intersects.”

[tricha]

http://i.l.cnn.net/money/.element/img/1.0/logos/fsb.story.logo.gif (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb)
Putting the zoom into electric cars

Watch out, Detroit. A new crop of electric-vehicle startups aims to put a dent in the Big Three by applying the latest in high-technology engineering and design.



By Brian Dumaine (fsb_mail@timeinc.com)

November 28 2007: 3:03 PM EST


http://i.l.cnn.net/money/2007/11/19/smbusiness/electric_cars.fsb/aptera.03.jpgAptera: This hybrid gets 300 mpg.
http://i.l.cnn.net/money/2007/11/19/smbusiness/electric_cars.fsb/tesla.03.jpgTesla: This racy electric roadster goes 245 miles on one charge.





Steve Fambro didn't get into the car business to save the world. He did it to go faster on freeways.
Fambro was driving 36 miles a day, during rush hour, to and from his biotech job in La Jolla, Calif. As traffic slowed to a crawl, motorcycles whizzed past in the carpool lane. He wanted to do the same, and after trying a motorbike and becoming worried about his safety, he decided he wanted to do the same in an enclosed vehicle. He bought a hybrid, but as an engineer he still yearned for a vehicle that got even better fuel economy.
That left electric cars. The selection was discouraging: tiny, boxy vehicles with a short range that took a long time to charge. "Anything you could buy looked as if it was designed in the 1970s," says Fambro.
So he decided to start his own car company. In November 2008, Fambro will begin selling the Aptera (http://aptera.com/). That means "wingless" in Greek, but don't think this car won't fly. It's a sleek two-seat, three-wheel electric vehicle with a top speed of 95 miles an hour, and it comes in two versions: all electric and hybrid.
Made of a Space Age composite material, the hybrid gets 300 miles per gallon, while the electric goes 100 miles on a single three- to six-hour charge. And it looks great in the carpool lane.
For the first time since the early 20th century, America is seeing a flowering of entrepreneurship in the auto industry. Today at least 11 new electric car companies, each working on a wide range of technologies, have launched or plan to launch models. Several of the startups are clustered around Silicon Valley, drawing on the brainpower and pocketbooks of high-tech engineers and venture capitalists. These upstarts are not modest. They believe they can do what major automakers have failed to do: bring an electric car to the mass market.
Electric cars, to be sure, are not new. About a century ago Thomas Edison joined forces with Henry Ford to develop an electric car that would be as affordable as the Model T. In those early days of the automobile, hundreds of manufacturers all over the country tried to compete making both electric and gasoline-powered cars. But economies of scale were not on their side, and small shops - some 415 of them in 1914, each of which produced a few handmade cars a year - eventually gave way to the Big Three.
Photo Gallery: Electric cars made by small firms (http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fsb/0711/gallery.NLT_hybrid_cars.fsb)
The internal-combustion engine could be refueled more conveniently than a battery could be recharged, especially on long trips, and that advantage all but killed electric auto technology. Over the years entrepreneurs would occasionally emerge with a new design to challenge the Big Three, yet all failed. The two most memorable flameouts: Preston Tucker in 1948 with his Tucker Torpedo and John De Lorean, with his silver gull-winged sports car in the 1970s - both of which used internal-combustion engines.
So why does today's new breed of small, renegade car company think it can succeed where so many other auto startups have failed? The entrepreneurs and investors behind the firms point to four factors: consumer desire for measures to address global warming, an abundance of investment capital, new breakthroughs in fiber composite body material, and the availability of cheap computing power and software that help simulate design challenges long before new cars hit the road.
By taking aim at many markets, the electric auto makers are multiplying their chances of success. Tesla Motors (http://www.teslamotors.com/) of San Carlos, Calif., will sell in early 2008 a speedy $98,000 electric roadster for the Hollywood and hedge fund set (George Clooney and the Google guys have mailed in their down payments).
Entrepreneur Ian Wright, based in Burlingame, Calif., is also aiming at the sports market with the Wrightspeed X1 (http://wrightspeed.com/), which he hopes to sell in about two years for about $100,000. The X1 prototype's three-second acceleration from zero to 60 mph makes it one of the fastest autos in the world - second only to the French-made Bugatti Veyron, a 16-cylinder gas-gulping beast that is just half-a-second faster and goes for $1.25 million.
If the Tesla and Wrightspeed give you sticker shock, don't worry. Phoenix Motorcars (http://phoenixmotorcars.com/) of Ontario, Calif., is aiming at businesses, and in early 2008 plans to sell a $47,000 electric pickup truck that can be recharged in ten minutes. For those looking for an affordable commuter car, Aptera's gas hybrid will be available in 2008 for $27,000, with an all-electric version for $30,000 (you'll have to plug it into a regular household socket for a few hours after driving 100 miles).
A Toronto company called Zenn (http://zenncars.com/) sells an electric car and is counting on a radical new kind of power pack from a Cedar Park, Texas, startup called EEStor to next build an Aptera rival. And in 2006 a Norwegian investment firm bought Think (http://think.no/), an electric car company once owned by Ford. It plans to launch the Think City commuter car in Europe in 2008 and in the U.S. market in 2009.
Dean Kamen, the Manchester, N.H.-based inventor of the Segway scooter (http://www.dekaresearch.com/), is working with Think to adapt his Stirling engine to the car, which would extend its 110 mile range. GM has hired A123, a Watertown, Mass., startup to supply lithium batteries for its Volt hybrid, due to launch in 2010. Former SAP executive Shai Agassi has raised $200 million for Project Better Place (http://projectbetterplace.com/), a firm that plans to build a network of stations to recharge all these electric cars.
Driving this global network of entrepreneurs is a very global problem. In the U.S., cars and trucks are responsible for some 20% of humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide. Switching from internal-combustion engines to electric-powered vehicles will seriously mitigate the effects of global warming.
Skeptics point out that the juice for electric cars must be generated by power plants, most of which are fired by natural gas or coal and spew their own carbon dioxide. But 30% of the electricity on the national grid comes from clean sources such as nuclear, solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. According to a study (http://oe.energy.gov/DocumentsandMedia/PHEV_Feasibility_Analysis.pdf) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, using electric vehicles actually results in as much as a 40% reduction in greenhouse gases, depending on the location.
Few of these new car companies are aiming to grow to the size of Toyota or GM. Most will be satisfied if they can become profitable niche players; others hope to sell or license their technology to the big guys. Says Bill Green, a partner at Vantage-Point Venture Partners (http://vpvp.com/), which has invested in Tesla Motors: "No one argues today that the Tesla will serve anything but a small subset of the market. But it has changed the conversation. It is a historic and dramatic increase in performance. The big car companies will look at Tesla and say, 'Hey, maybe I can use that technology in my cars.' "
The rise of the jetpack (http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/19/smbusiness/jet_pack.fsb/index.htm)
Venture capital firms are betting big on that outcome too. Elon Musk, co-founder of PayPal, used part of the fortune he made selling his company to eBay (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=EBAY&source=story_quote_link) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=EBAY&source=story_charts_link), Fortune 500 (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/snapshots/457.html?source=story_f500_link)) to help bankroll Tesla Motors. Besides Vantagepoint, investors include Google (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GOOG&source=story_quote_link) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=GOOG&source=story_charts_link), Fortune 500 (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/snapshots/3967.html?source=story_f500_link)) founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Silicon Valley VC firm Draper Jurvetson. Tesla has raised more than $100 million. Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byer, along with other investors, has put $7 million into EEStor.
What has these investors excited is that technology is helping small companies rethink the dynamics of car design. Take the Aptera: This aerodynamic, low-slung commuter car has a composite body, made of carbon fiber, fiberglass, and Kevlar, that looks like the cockpit of a jet yet can fit two adult passengers and a child in a baby seat. It weighs 1,500 pounds, compared with the U.S. industry average of 3,455 pounds. Because it has only three wheels, the Aptera will be classified as a motorcycle in most states. But it's beefier than it looks. One inch shorter than a Toyota Prius, the Aptera can still fit a surfboard in the trunk after folding down the passenger seat. The vehicle has passed slalom tests for stability and handling.
Odd, delightful features abound. A solar-assisted air-conditioning system will run on sunny days even when the car is turned off, keeping the interior cool for the driver's return. The covered wheels hang on the ends of protruding axles, leading one auto industry wag to remark that the vehicle looks like "Batman's girlfriend's car." Fambro makes no apologies: "Most auto designs put styling first and function second," he says. "The way cars are designed, half the energy they need is just to push the air out of the way."
Fambro's aim was to change the styling to reduce the drag of the car as much as possible. He succeeded: The Aptera will have a drag one-third that of a today's average car and less than half that of the Prius, the industry champion of low wind resistance.
Fambro created his groundbreaking design on a budget. It would have cost him $10,000 a day to test the car's aerodynamics in a wind tunnel, so Fambro found some software - the same that NASA uses to test the drag of its space vehicles - for just $50,000.
Not your average GPS (http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/27/smbusiness/GPS.fsb/index.htm)
The simulation lets him make a change in the style of the car and see the effect on drag very quickly. One result: The car has no side-view mirrors. Instead the driver has 180-degree rear visibility on a videoscreen with the help of cameras mounted on the back of the car. "Ten years ago we couldn't do that kind of testing. And five years ago we couldn't afford it," says Fambro.
His engineers can also use the computer to simulate 50,000 miles of driving, including over potholes, and test the stress on the vehicle parts. (A prototype of the car has been pushed to its limits on an actual test track.) Because the body is made of a composite, capital costs are low compared with those required to build a typical steel car. It can take as much as $1 billion to set up the facilities for the die stamping, welding, and assembly of a new vehicle, but Aptera can make composite parts with a tolerance of 0.001 of an inch quickly and cheaply. "It's an entirely new way of making structural products," says Fambro. He estimates that today's computing power is so fast that he can do with three employees "what a big company such as Boeing ten years ago took a few hundred people to do."
It's one thing to build a prototype; it's another to manufacture complex products in large numbers on time and on budget. Toyota (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=TM&source=story_quote_link) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=TM&source=story_charts_link)), with some of the best auto engineers in the world, took years to work the kinks out of the Prius. Aptera must also build or piggyback onto a dealer network to sell and service the cars. That takes capital, skilled manpower, and time. Aptera's all-electric model should at least be very easy to maintain. It has no transmission, and its electric motor has only one moving part, compared with about 400 for regular engines. Its mechanics may need software degrees, but at least they'll have clean hands.
Even if Fambro succeeds in building an affordable, energy-efficient commuter car, the impact on the market, at least in the short run, will be minimal. He hopes to sell around 3,000 to 4,000 Apteras in the first year of production, marketing mostly to buyers in California, Arizona, and Nevada, and then ramp up to about 10,000 cars a year soon after that. Meanwhile, GM (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GM&source=story_quote_link) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=GM&source=story_charts_link), Fortune 500 (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/snapshots/563.html?source=story_f500_link)) alone churns out about 300,000 cars a month. Fambro says he plans to build Aptera into a major car company, but like many entrepreneurs, he is willing to be flexible. "If Toyota or Hyundai offered to buy us," he says slyly, "we would certainly consider it."

[tricha]

WHERE THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IS BOOMING
COMMUTER CARS
- Aptera Motors, Carlsbad, Calif.
- Think Global, Palo Alto*
- Zenn, Toronto
- Zap, Santa Rosa, Calif.
- Commuter Cars, Spokane
- A.C. Propulsion, San Dimas, Calif.
FUN CARS
- Tesla Motors, San Carlos, Calif.
- Wrightspeed, Burlingame, Calif.
- Universal Electric Vehicle, Thousand Oaks, Calif.
WORK VEHICLES
- Azure Dynamics, Oak Park, Mich.
- Phoenix Motorcars, Ontario, Calif.
BATTERY MAKERS
- A123Systems, Watertown, Mass.
- Altairnano, Reno
- EEStor, Cedar Park, Texas
- Valence Technology, Austin
- Odyne, Hauppauge, N.Y.

[spruik]

I'd like to pass on my thanks as well Shasta for all the work you"ve done and the charts and statistics. Like your cool, new look as well.
Cheers
PS The MV Hellennic should be almost full and on it's way by now.

From me too, shasta. You have turned from scary to cuddly :eek:.

BTW Jack, it that avatar you? :) Looking good ;)

"In shasta we trust"

[OutToLunch]

I've had a bit of communication with a few other shareholders and some skepticism about where ADY is heading (esp with respect to financing, revenues, and often-missed deadlines) is starting to become apparent. Personally I am inclined to cut ADY quite a bit of slack at this point since they clearly have a lot of plates in the air all at once, but it's healthy to consider other possible outcomes too -- for example, what would happen if we encountered lower then expected revenues (due to shipping/port/production constraints), difficulties in financing, difficulties in closing contracts, not to mention the existing tendencies for ADY to over-promise and under-deliver. Also:

* The deal with Santa Fe for (I think -- correct me if wrong) 1.2mtpa of iron ore fines from their existing stockpile is no more -- it now runs out at the end of this year as reported by folk on HC who asked Phil about it after mention of Santa Fe was omitted from the Feb presentation. Apparently ADY "won't need Santa Fe's iron ore" as they won't have the port capacity to ship it anyway on top of their own ore. But wouldn't it have been better to use Santa Fe's ore as much as possible ahead of mining their own?

* The recent $15m facility has just had that extra $5m option drawn down as well, with no explanation what for?

* Phil's $6 valuation posted on the ADY website -- see http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf -- sorry I just don't get it! Surely 750m net profit over 10 years on ~1 billion shares comes to EPS of 7.5c, which gives us a share price of 60c at a P/E of 8 (this is ignoring exchange rates and the demerger of course). Again I'm happy to be corrected here.

Just thought I'd pass the hat around for some responses, if anyone has any answers or comments -- after all I did buy some more recently so I'm doubly keen on making sure I'm backing the right horse. Or should I say, giddyup ADY...! :rolleyes:

[stevo1]

WHERE THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IS BOOMING
COMMUTER CARS
- Aptera Motors, Carlsbad, Calif.
- Think Global, Palo Alto*
- Zenn, Toronto
- Zap, Santa Rosa, Calif.
- Commuter Cars, Spokane
- A.C. Propulsion, San Dimas, Calif.
FUN CARS
- Tesla Motors, San Carlos, Calif.
- Wrightspeed, Burlingame, Calif.
- Universal Electric Vehicle, Thousand Oaks, Calif.
WORK VEHICLES
- Azure Dynamics, Oak Park, Mich.
- Phoenix Motorcars, Ontario, Calif.
BATTERY MAKERS
- A123Systems, Watertown, Mass.
- Altairnano, Reno
- EEStor, Cedar Park, Texas
- Valence Technology, Austin
- Odyne, Hauppauge, N.Y.
Hi tricha it is my belief that the major market for li batteries is probably not autos(though it will be large)but stationary storage capacity for electricity.If you look at the Altairnano for example)they are developing container size storage batteries that utilities can store power to release into peak time consumption.With the advances in renewable power generation through wind, solar,(massive advances in solar film)and hydrogen cell technology it may well be possible to do away with power lines into homes and develop away from external power scources(power lines).In the meantime the ADY shareprice is being tossed around by margin lenders and shorters.

[JackSprat]

The ship is still there Jack, but they're loading it up.
The ADY webcams are great!


Thanks Serpie,
Yes it looks like things are on the move and ofcourse with further improvement of the port at Canalaria and another port Alcade things will be moving even faster and that's just the IO.

[STRAT]

off topic, but man GM make some FUGLY grills:(i got to agree with you there SS, It looks like it should have Tonka written underneath instead of GM on the front.

[Ttops]

;)
Hi tricha it is my belief that the major market for li batteries is probably not autos(though it will be large)but stationary storage capacity for electricity.If you look at the Altairnano for example)they are developing container size storage batteries that utilities can store power to release into peak time consumption.With the advances in renewable power generation through wind, solar,(massive advances in solar film)and hydrogen cell technology it may well be possible to do away with power lines into homes and develop away from external power scources(power lines).In the meantime the ADY shareprice is being tossed around by margin lenders and shorters.

Hi all Back again :eek: Watch out when I go on holiday!
Good point stevo1 but it all helps whichever is most important.


THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT
Primary & Secondary Batteries - Small Fuel Cells - Other Technologies
March 17 - 20, 2008


https://powersources.net/florida/frameset.html

Then Click on Primary & Secondary Batteries - Small Fuel Cells - Other Technologies


Scroll to the BATTERY SEMINAR AGENDA about half way down.
It makes interesting reading.
95&#37; on Li ion.. Small fuel cells hardly a mention. What does this tell you?

The Li storage does appear highly relevant. Off peak storage for release at peak demand is ideal for wind not so much solar so reckon I'll be keeping my connection to the grid. Still too expensive though solar cells. As far as I have read fuel cells are still too expensive as well and looking at that agenda what appears to be flavour of the month?
;);)

[JackSprat]

BTW Jack, it that avatar you? :) Looking good ;)

"In shasta we trust"[/QUOTE]

Thanks Spruik,
lol. I do my best but must admit somedays I look better than others. :D

Tricha,
those posts of yours certainly lend some inspiration and sometimes a cup looks half full and others it looks like a great golden chalice. Brave new world coming with the huge break through in energy conservation and environmental sustainability etc building a society free of contamination and pollution and so much NEED for the black stuff.
Sorry, waxing lyrical. I'm at work with a ward full of really really karazzy people and taking a five minute break but all the same I'll take the wee white Aptera anytime. 300mpg!! :cool:

[Serpie]

They're still loading up the boat, but it's sitting pretty low in the water now. Hopefully it'll be on it's way roday, and we'll get an announcement tomorrow.
Green close on the DOW, so ADY might test this 30-33c cycle.

[tobo]

...
* Phil's $6 valuation posted on the ADY website -- see http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf -- sorry I just don't get it! Surely 750m net profit over 10 years on ~1 billion shares comes to EPS of 7.5c, which gives us a share price of 60c at a P/E of 8 (this is ignoring exchange rates and the demerger of course). Again I'm happy to be corrected here.
..... giddyup ADY...! :rolleyes:

OutToLunch,
I know it's more fun to look at shiny cars, but I had a look at these numbers.
I was blindsided by the issue of tonnage before re-reading you question...anyway,

PT's $750m EBIT divided by 980m shares is 75 cents per share, but that $750 is the present value of 10 years earnings, it is not one year's earnings, so it does not require the adjustment of multiplying it by a PE rate. The present value of that income stream is 75c so if that is all the company did, it's share price should be 75c. (ie assuming the income stream stops after 10 years).

But then I got to looking at how he got to $750m and tying it into what others have said
(1) State One forecast 1.85Mtpa rate = A$83M EBIT for IO
- (previously posted by shasta, reposted 20Feb)
(2) Prodn 100,000 T/month of magnetite iron ore averaging 63.5% iron. EBIT = $50m
- (summarised by SectorSurfa 17feb)
(3) PT’s quantity is 46mt over 10 years (average 4.6mtpa)
Multiply by $83/1.85tpa = EBIT $2,064 over 10 years
Present value of $2064m x 10 years, discounted at 12% (paid monthly) = $1200m x 60% = $720m...Wahoo, nearly the same as PT's EBIT, so that confirms margin is about right.

So the outstanding issue is the tonnage that you poke into the calculation.
If you stick with PT’s quantity of 46mt over 10 years and never any increases to that, and no price/cost increases, present value of IO business is 75c.

so, for sp of 31c you get that AND the lithium (and potash),
and Bulman etc.

as said so many times, everytime you calculate you get a different number, but the result is always the same - a BUY.

ToBo. ADY,ARU,LYC,NAV,HGD, also oil & U stocks

[hack]

Am new here (joined yesterday), you guys in NZ have been very busy with ADY.
Tobo, I like your calcs and I agree no matter which way you look at it, ADY is a - Buy.

I played with the state one report, trying to value the Iron Ore also. However I have been informed by a reliable source that OPEX will be only a third (1/3) of total revenue once Punta Alcade is upgraded.

Cheers

Hack
aka Ed27620

[Serpie]

Welcome Hack.

I've been a reader of your many posts on HC, and it's good to have you here on ST.

NO writing your name in the snow here though!

[Huang Chung]

Serpie: They're still loading up the boat, but it's sitting pretty low in the water now.

Geez Serp, I think they overloaded it!


http://www.navybuddies.com/ae/ae27sink_t.jpg (http://www.navybuddies.com/ae/ae27sink.jpg)

[shasta]

OutToLunch,
I know it's more fun to look at shiny cars, but I had a look at these numbers.
I was blindsided by the issue of tonnage before re-reading you question...anyway,

PT's $750m EBIT divided by 980m shares is 75 cents per share, but that $750 is the present value of 10 years earnings, it is not one year's earnings, so it does not require the adjustment of multiplying it by a PE rate. The present value of that income stream is 75c so if that is all the company did, it's share price should be 75c. (ie assuming the income stream stops after 10 years).

But then I got to looking at how he got to $750m and tying it into what others have said
(1) State One forecast 1.85Mtpa rate = A$83M EBIT for IO
- (previously posted by shasta, reposted 20Feb)
(2) Prodn 100,000 T/month of magnetite iron ore averaging 63.5% iron. EBIT = $50m
- (summarised by SectorSurfa 17feb)
(3) PT’s quantity is 46mt over 10 years (average 4.6mtpa)
Multiply by $83/1.85tpa = EBIT $2,064 over 10 years
Present value of $2064m x 10 years, discounted at 12% (paid monthly) = $1200m x 60% = $720m...Wahoo, nearly the same as PT's EBIT, so that confirms margin is about right.

So the outstanding issue is the tonnage that you poke into the calculation.
If you stick with PT’s quantity of 46mt over 10 years and never any increases to that, and no price/cost increases, present value of IO business is 75c.

so, for sp of 31c you get that AND the lithium (and potash),
and Bulman etc.

as said so many times, everytime you calculate you get a different number, but the result is always the same - a BUY.

ToBo. ADY,ARU,LYC,NAV,HGD, also oil & U stocks

Nice work Tobo :cool:

Shasta likes paying 30c for 75+ cents worth!

I wonder whether Michael Clarke is eyeing up buying the other 40% of the IO Santa Barbara JV, would make a great fit with ADY's strategy as they go throught the approvals process to ramp up production to 7mtpa.

Of course they need the infrastructure sorted before hand, ie the port upgrade & another place to stock pile such a large amount.

Serpie - ADY seems to go up when the DOW goes down, so shall be watching with interest.

[hack]

Welcome Hack.

I've been a reader of your many posts on HC, and it's good to have you here on ST.

NO writing your name in the snow here though!

Thanks Serpie. Haven't seen snow for about 15 years:)

There is good posting going on here without the rubbish. Shasta, good to see you also! I had wondered where you went...

Found you guys, when I was researching another stock, I saw the ADY thread and had to say, Hi.

Interesting times, I think.

[shasta]

Seems Iron Ore prices may go higher?

ADY's Iron Ore is in Chile, but the increases seem to be inline with Australia.

AUSTRALIA'S iron ore giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will this week attempt to improve on the 65-71 per cent price rise conceded late on Friday by China's steel mills to Brazil's Vale.

These rises - which vary according to ore quality - agreed by Baosteel, China's leading steel producer, set a floor under any increase that the Australian suppliers can now expect.

Since Vale set price figures with the Japanese and Korean mills, which China has now also agreed, BHP and Rio have responded that they would assess the situation, without indicating that they would settle for the same rise.

The Australian miners have been arguing with increasing force, as shipping costs have soared, that the system of annual price setting on the basis of a common global benchmark does not reflect the cheaper cost of transporting the ore from Australia to China and other Asian destinations.

Freight prices appear to have peaked but remain extraordinarily high.
The BHP bid for Rio dramatises the setting for the current round of price talks - whose outcome is due to take effect from April 1 - with neither company wishing to be viewed by investors as conceding lightly.

Thus it may take some time for the Australian suppliers, which together ship about a third of all globally traded iron ore, to announce the results of their own negotiations.
The 71 per cent top price rise now agreed is for the premium Carajas ore produced by Vale. Merrill Lynch analysts say Australian producers are in a strong position to achieve the same rise because their ore is of similar high quality. And Rio said last week that it regarded Carajas ore as the "relevant reference" for its own product.
It may be difficult to lever any higher prices from the mills, even though the spot price paid by Chinese mills, chiefly for ore from India and from their own domestic producers, remains well above even the new increased figure.

BHP has been proposing a market-based alternative to the benchmark system, which Rio has also begun to criticise.
But this will be a difficult year, with the takeover bid looming over the industry, for the Australians to break away from the deal cemented by their great Brazilian competitor, which has set the price for several years in a row.

The previous three annual negotiations have seen rises of 9.5 per cent in 2007, 19 per cent in 2006 and 71 per cent, to cries of anguish from China, in 2005.

But this year's Chinese response is already far more muted. Zhou Xizeng, an analyst at Citic Securities, said a basic 65 per cent rise "is acceptable, considering the price in the real (spot) market". The devaluation of the US dollar and the expected decline in freight costs would help to curb the impact of any increase in steel production costs.

Baosteel has increased its price for steel by 10 per cent during the 2008 first quarter

[STRAT]

Freight prices appear to have peaked but remain extraordinarily high.
Cant see it getting any better in the future either unless they start using Sailing Ships again :D

[spruik]

Cant see it getting any better in the future either unless they start using Sailing Ships again :D

Or electric ships with lithium batteries... :cool:

[STRAT]

Or electric ships with lithium batteries... :cool:They would still have to plug into a grid somewhere to charge up. Oil and Coal still rule:D

[Serpie]

Spot on Strat (and maybe uranium)

I have to keep reminding myself that Lithium is not an energy source, any more than lead or nickel are.

[STRAT]

(and maybe uranium)

.Yup as long as there are no more Chernobyl type incidents in the next few years.

I found out last time I was in Fiji that all their power is generated with Diesel and they are not alone

[OutToLunch]

OutToLunch,
I know it's more fun to look at shiny cars, but I had a look at these numbers.
I was blindsided by the issue of tonnage before re-reading you question...anyway,

PT's $750m EBIT divided by 980m shares is 75 cents per share, but that $750 is the present value of 10 years earnings, it is not one year's earnings, so it does not require the adjustment of multiplying it by a PE rate. The present value of that income stream is 75c so if that is all the company did, it's share price should be 75c. (ie assuming the income stream stops after 10 years).

But then I got to looking at how he got to $750m and tying it into what others have said
(1) State One forecast 1.85Mtpa rate = A$83M EBIT for IO
- (previously posted by shasta, reposted 20Feb)
(2) Prodn 100,000 T/month of magnetite iron ore averaging 63.5% iron. EBIT = $50m
- (summarised by SectorSurfa 17feb)
(3) PT’s quantity is 46mt over 10 years (average 4.6mtpa)
Multiply by $83/1.85tpa = EBIT $2,064 over 10 years
Present value of $2064m x 10 years, discounted at 12% (paid monthly) = $1200m x 60% = $720m...Wahoo, nearly the same as PT's EBIT, so that confirms margin is about right.

So the outstanding issue is the tonnage that you poke into the calculation.
If you stick with PT’s quantity of 46mt over 10 years and never any increases to that, and no price/cost increases, present value of IO business is 75c.

so, for sp of 31c you get that AND the lithium (and potash),
and Bulman etc.

as said so many times, everytime you calculate you get a different number, but the result is always the same - a BUY.

ToBo. ADY,ARU,LYC,NAV,HGD, also oil & U stocks

Thanks Tobo for having a go at this. I'm still confused though -- is taking 10 years' earnings (albeit discounting future earnings) giving a different result to valuing a share on its current (or expected) annual earnings. What I mean is -- say for example we have a presently profitable company with NPAT of 5cps, and it trades on a p/e of 8 giving a share price of 40 cents. By comparison, if you take 10 years' worth of earnings (50 cps, assuming no change year to year) and discount future earnings similarly to how you have done it above (I don't know how to do this, btw) -- does that give you a higher share valuation, a la your calcs for ADY above? Just asking because Phil's $6 valuation still seems impossibly high to me? :confused:

[leecoker]

I'm looking at topping up with buying some more shares...I first entered at around the 10cent mark and it still looks really cheap to me. What are everyones thoughts about entering now prior the to de-merger or would it be safer to wait then enter?

Any thoughts or comments would be awesome.

[shasta]

I'm looking at topping up with buying some more shares...I first entered at around the 10cent mark and it still looks really cheap to me. What are everyones thoughts about entering now prior the to de-merger or would it be safer to wait then enter?

Any thoughts or comments would be awesome.

Leecoker

Depends what your investment style with ADY is...

ADY will likely spike hard & over run "fair value" when first announced.

If you are wanting to trade it, thats your opportunity.

If you are happy to wait & see what the market does post split, you will have shares in two companies at differing stages of production.

IMO - ADY with the Iron Ore will drop post split, & should be seen as a 2 - 3 year hold, while the Iron Ore business ramps up to full production, thats where the gains will be made, slowly over time.

As for RLL - well it's going to be more sort after than "hotdogs at half time @ the footy" & i believe we will end up having a car manufacturer (or similar) on the registry shortly after it lists.

The tender process was extremely competitive & again if you are wanting to trade, just after the split i expect a good run.

Phillip Thomas has some big ambitions for RLL, esp the Potash side of things, so sticking with RLL for say 2 years will see the biggest gains, as this project gets up to full capacity.

ADY will have the "other"" bits & pieces as well, the Nickel + Zinc/Lead projects & that obscure 10% holding in the hip replacement company!

Me personally, I am holding until after the split & if you read my valuations back on page 59 of this thread, any SP values well above my valuations may see me exit completely or trade ADY.

I will continue to hold RLL and may trade it as i see fit.

In good faith to those on this thread, i shall disclose my intentions when the time comes.

[Crypto Crude]

What a crack up Huang Chung,
Nice funny post...re - their still filling up the boat post...
Man, I continue to hear good things about ADY...
Im looking for a big down day or a few smaller down days, and Im in...
Im going to punt this one blind on zero research....
Ive been abit of a shocker with non oil stock plays... looking to sail my boat this time...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

What a crack up Huang Chung,
Nice funny post...re - their still filling up the boat post...
Man, I continue to hear good things about ADY...
Im looking for a big down day or a few smaller down days, and Im in...
Im going to punt this one blind on zero research....
Ive been abit of a shocker with non oil stock plays... looking to sail my boat this time...
:cool:
.^sc

Well going off current form Shrewd, should the DOW go up tonight ADY will slide again, although at 28.5c i don't see much downside from there.

I'd be buying while it's sub 30c & be happy.

Plenty of research on here too!

[h2so4]

I'd be buying while it's sub 30c & be happy.

Plenty of research on here too!

Im happy. Whatever floats my boat?

[JackSprat]

Here are some of the other uses Lithium is put to which maybe of interest: from Wikipedia

Lithium carbonate is an important industrial chemical. It forms low-melting fluxes with silica and other materials. Glasses derived from lithium carbonate are useful in ovenware. Cement sets more rapidly when prepared with lithium carbonate, as is useful for tile adhesives. When added to aluminium trifluoride, it forms LiF which gives a superior electrolyte for the processing of aluminium.[1] It is also used in the manufacture of most lithium-ion battery cathodes, which are made of lithium cobalt oxide.

But it is also used in pharmacology as a medicine:

Pharmacology

Antimanic Agent

Lithium is a monovalent cation which belongs to the group of alkali metals together with sodium, potassium and other elements with which it shares some of its properties.

The mechanism whereby lithium controls manic episodes and possibly influences affective disorders is not yet known.

Unlike other antimanic agents, it does not possess general sedative properties. There is evidence, however, that lithium alters sodium transport and may interfere with ion exchange mechanisms and nerve conduction. Fluid and electrolyte metabolism are believed to be altered in affective disorders and this may be related to the therapeutic action of lithium. Lithium enhances the uptake of norepinephrine and serotonin into the synaptosomes, thus reducing their action. It reduces release of norepinephrine from synaptic vesicles and inhibits production of cyclic AMP.

Lithium is inactive in most screening psychopharmacological tests but it produces marked potentiation of amphetamine hyperactivity in animals. It does not appear to protect against the action of stimulant and convulsive drugs and produces only slight potentiation of CNS depressants.

Lithium can replace sodium in extracellular fluid and during the process of depolarization it has an extremely rapid intracellular influx. However, it is not effectively removed by the sodium pump, thereby preventing the cellular reentry of potassium. As a result, it interferes with electrolyte distribution across the neuronal membrane, leading to a fall in membrane potential and changes in conduction and neuronal excitability. In humans, lithium alters the excitability of the CNS as measured by cortical evoked potentials.

Balance studies indicate that lithium may produce a transitory diuresis with increase in sodium and potassium excretion. A period of equilibrium or slight retention may follow but persistent polyuria may occur in some patients. There is evidence that therapeutic doses of lithium decrease the 24-hour exchangeable sodium. Longitudinal metabolic studies have demonstrated cumulative lithium retention in some patients without undue rise in plasma lithium values, indicating a possible intracellular retention of lithium. There is some evidence that lithium may affect the metabolism of potassium, magnesium and calcium. - from http://www.mentalhealth.com/drug/p30-l02.html

Bipolar disorder affects approximately 5.7 million American adults, or about 2.6 percent of the U.S. population age 18 and older in a given year.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The important thing to note here is that throughout the world people being treated with Lithium carbonate would be massive especially as the average treatment requires 1000mg bd (or 4 x 500mg tablets a day) and Lithium Carbonate is the drug of choice for Biopolar Disorders and ADY is perfectly aware of this and mention it in some detail on their web site.

[stevo1]

the shareprice could do with quadruple dose of it the way its been behaving

[spruik]

For some time now I've been using "White Lithium Grease" (marketed by the WD_40 company) in a spray can which has excellent lubrication and rust-prevention properties, lasting much longer than other stuff I used before. Using it for outdoor machinery (tractor) and vehicles (hinges) and any exposed metal surfaces.

Lithium must be really good stuff.

[tobo]

Thanks Tobo for having a go at this. I'm still confused though -- is taking 10 years' earnings (albeit discounting future earnings) giving a different result to valuing a share on its current (or expected) annual earnings. What I mean is -- say for example we have a presently profitable company with NPAT of 5cps, and it trades on a p/e of 8 giving a share price of 40 cents. By comparison, if you take 10 years' worth of earnings (50 cps, assuming no change year to year) and discount future earnings similarly to how you have done it above (I don't know how to do this, btw) -- does that give you a higher share valuation, a la your calcs for ADY above? Just asking because Phil's $6 valuation still seems impossibly high to me? :confused:

Theory-wise,
taking 10 years' earnings, say 5cps each year -
either that's 5c @ PE8 = 40c value
or, 10 years x 5c discounted @ 12.5% = hey presto 40c value.

In case you don't know, "discounting" means working out the present value of a cashflow that is to happen at a future date. The idea is, if I give you 5c in a year's time, you miss out on a year's interest compared with if I give it to you now. Hence to do the discounting thing you need to to know the implied interest earned or lost (here we took 12.5%) and you need to know the timing of cashflows (I took it as 5c pa/12 paid monthly, for 10 years).
On the other hand multplying th 5c by PE 8 is actually kinda the same thing, mathematically it's 5c / 12.5%.

I thought the two would work out a bit different, I need to think it through, just writing off the top of my head in the dieing moments of my lunchhour.

So back to the original question, I still think PT did a mistake, or a calc I don't understand.

ToBo. Discl: Holding (bought more yesturday). It makes a nice change for me to be averaging UP. Lately I've spent all my effort on resisting averaging down on some of my other species.

[shasta]

Theory-wise,
taking 10 years' earnings, say 5cps each year -
either that's 5c @ PE8 = 40c value
or, 10 years x 5c discounted @ 12.5% = hey presto 40c value.

In case you don't know, "discounting" means working out the present value of a cashflow that is to happen at a future date. The idea is, if I give you 5c in a year's time, you miss out on a year's interest compared with if I give it to you now. Hence to do the discounting thing you need to to know the implied interest earned or lost (here we took 12.5%) and you need to know the timing of cashflows (I took it as 5c pa/12 paid monthly, for 10 years).
On the other hand multplying th 5c by PE 8 is actually kinda the same thing, mathematically it's 5c / 12.5%.

I thought the two would work out a bit different, I need to think it through, just writing off the top of my head in the dieing moments of my lunchhour.

So back to the original question, I still think PT did a mistake, or a calc I don't understand.

ToBo. Discl: Holding (bought more yesturday). It makes a nice change for me to be averaging UP. Lately I've spent all my effort on resisting averaging down on some of my other species.

Im pretty sure PT was merely trying to highlight the total value of the IO project over 10 years, rather than provide us with a more traditional valuation. Although the $6 does sound silly.

I'm happy to contact him & work out a more formal valuation, except we have them on the way (& yes i shall dissect them & question them).

Hell at the right price, i'd offer my accounting services to RLL :D

In the same way we see mining spec's say we are worth "X" based on 1% of the IGV (In ground value) etc, or valuing an oiler based on "$X"/bbl reserves, i think we are missing the main point.

We will get the proper valuations within the next 2-3 weeks IMO, & these will be based on recent/actual figures.

Until then, ADY is cheap as chips & like the Chilean port, we all should be "loading" up. :D

[STRAT]

Mmm, Someones dumping again this afternoon. Hope I didnt get back in too soon what with the demerger being delayed a month

[shasta]

Mmm, Someones dumping again this afternoon. Hope I didnt get back in too soon what with the demerger being delayed a month

Seems like we need a down day on the DOW, to halt the slide.:confused:

Then again OEL announces a stunning flow test result & the SP slides :confused:

[spruik]

Time for a holiday, spend our time more useful :rolleyes:

[stevo1]

Seems like we need a down day on the DOW, to halt the slide.:confused:

Then again OEL announces a stunning flow test result & the SP slides :confused:

Its bit depressing watcthing ADY shareprice (my largest holding) down 1.25% in portfolio.However with MAK currently showing 200% gain pain is eased a bit and with wheat futures up 20% can only see more blue sky for MAK.ADY just dosnt seem to be able to get off the floor.

[spruik]

Just can't help remaining somewhat suspicious. A very good story but certain insider groups selling persistently.

Perhaps the story is made up, perhaps half true. It explains why one wanted so many options (that was queried in this thread) and since having been exercised and sold.

PS - It's not in my nature to speak this way.

[shasta]

Just can't help remaining somewhat suspicious. A very good story but certain insider groups selling persistently.

Perhaps the story is made up, perhaps half true. It explains why one wanted so many options (that was queried in this thread) and since having been exercised and sold.

PS - It's not in my nature to speak this way.

Check my ASX thread for "Shorting Shares", it seems ADY has been shorted of late...

Explains the drop off near close :confused:

[spruik]

With some 2m shorted doesn't explain sp or the selling.

ASX Company Name Product/ Reported Short/ Short Sell % Short/
Code Class Borrowed Volume Limit Borrowed

ADY ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. FPO 2,016,880 98,429,920 .20

[dicey]

Thank you Mr. Market for the nice price. Is it ok to take advantage of Mr. Market when he is not well? :) Hes been unwell for several months now. He keeps selling ady very cheap to me. Thank you Mr. Market.:D:D

[shasta]

With some 2m shorted doesn't explain sp or the selling.

ASX Company Name Product/ Reported Short/ Short Sell % Short/
Code Class Borrowed Volume Limit Borrowed

ADY ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. FPO 2,016,880 98,429,920 .20


That list was from the 25/2/08 the day before...

2m shares shorted IS going to hinder the SP in the short term IMO.

I would have thought there would be bigger gains going long?

Seems 5 minutes in this market is too long for some :D

[shasta]

That list was from the 25/2/08 the day before...

2m shares shorted IS going to hinder the SP in the short term IMO.

I would have thought there would be bigger gains going long?

Seems 5 minutes in this market is too long for some :D

New link on the ADY website which i believe is a must read, it contains Phillip Thomas answering question on Topstocks (i am registered there, but am taking this off the ADY webiste, hence no copyright issues).

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

[Bobbyvee]

You really have to wonder about a MD who thinks a chat room is the place to discuss corporate business. At present it would appear to be just a trading stock.

[shasta]

You really have to wonder about a MD who thinks a chat room is the place to discuss corporate business. At present it would appear to be just a trading stock.

Phillip Thomas has IMO one of the best pedigree as a CEO/MD on the ASX.

You're questioning someone that takes time out of his busy schedule to answer us smucks?

I hold a nice parcel of ADY, & have always found PT on the ball when it comes to answering relevant questions.

All i can say is, of you don't like his style, don't invest in ADY.

Don't worry that 99% of CEO's/MD's hold shareholders in contempt & don't bother to answer them!

Oh by the way go look up how many shares PT has, his interests are aligned with ours.

When the ADY valuations come out showing what RLL is really worth, EVERYONE that owns ADY will be stunned...

The market has ADY very wrong, & yes i hold over 50% of my invested capital in ADY, but show me another "no-brainer" on the ASX that will double & then some...

If you read that article you would see what purity ADY has the Li at, far in excess of what it has previously stated.

PT is ambitious & knows how to deliver.

I will be following him into RLL, because i KNOW he will make things happen.

If you don't believe me, ring him, hes very approachable & always happy to chat to shareholders (he understands we pay his salary!)

[shasta]

I think you are falling in love Shasta? but what time frame?

I will show you 5 stocks that can do the same and then some with reasonable confidence

AGO, MLI, MPJ, QOL, STU

Im sure others have more "no brainers" to offer than just ADY

Nope, i dont "fall in love with stocks", i just invest in what i know.

Come back in 2 months time & tell me im wrong :D

[tobo]

Just thinking about likely sp trends once we have two separate (RLL and ADY) sp's to watch.
It occurs to me that current combined ADY still appeals to the speccy investors, so that quite a few of the holders will be of that 'persuasion'.
That sort of investor might hold their RLLs but let their IO ADYs go? ie a wee bit of a selloff after the separation?

There will be people out there waiting for the new IO ADY as a clean little(?) IO play, but because they have plenty of other IO businesses to choose from, will there be the immediate buying volume to absorb selling volume?
(Bit different for Li. There just ain't so many Li plays like this one out there.)
- Tobo

[tobo]

sorry, a bit 'wordy'.
Let me rephrase:
So, who's gonna keep theier RLL and sell their IO ADY?

Tobo

[WASL]

You really have to wonder about a MD who thinks a chat room is the place to discuss corporate business. At present it would appear to be just a trading stock.
Hi Bobbyvee,

Remember Lee Stephens of Emitch.

WASL

[Bobbyvee]

Mmmmm yes WASL but..........13 posts in one day this week and then seven posts in one day a week before? That is a little different to Lee at Emitch.

[Bobbyvee]

Oops! Ignore my erroneous (late night) crap

[shasta]

sorry, a bit 'wordy'.
Let me rephrase:
So, who's gonna keep theier RLL and sell their IO ADY?

Tobo

I am for one, the Lithium business will grow much quicker than the Iron ore will.

Even my RLL will be up for sale, at the right price.

[kura]

Oops! Ignore my erroneous (late night) crap

Maybe we should have another silly poll, asking how often have you posted, when if caught driving in the same condition, you would be arrested.

Disc: Have posted a couple of times under the influence myself.

[Halebop]

Maybe we should have another silly poll, asking how often have you posted, when if caught driving in the same condition, you would be arrested.

Disc: Have posted a couple of times under the influence myself.

I often post in nothing but my underwear so would probably be arrested if caught in public.

[Huang Chung]

Guilty of the same misdemeanour Halebop.....thank got this site isn't video linked. :eek:

[Halebop]

I'm really hoping my underwear contains neither nits nor grits :eek:

[WASL]

Following article in the Melbourne Age

"Daimler AG is planning to roll out a hybrid version of its Mercedes-Benz flagship S-Class luxury sedan that uses a kind of battery already widely used in consumer electronics.

Daimler said that it has adapted lithium-ion technology to meet demanding automotive requirements. Daimler said the new battery will be used in the S 400 BlueHYBRID beginning next year.

"What we have here is a groundbreaking key technology that is going to be a decisive factor for the future success of the automotive industry," Daimler Board of Management member Thomas Weber said in a statement.

Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler's announcement indicates an increase in confidence about lithium-ion technology. Other automakers are working on lithium-ion batteries.

Toyota Motor Corp said in December it was preparing to start mass producing lithium-ion batteries for low-emission vehicles.

Lithium-ion batteries, already widely used in laptops and other gadgets, are smaller yet more powerful than the nickel-metal hydride batteries used in gas-electric hybrids like the Japanese automaker's Prius.

General Motors Corp is developing the Chevrolet Volt, an electric sedan to be recharged by plugging it into a household outlet. Plans call for it to be powered by an electric motor fed by lithium-ion batteries.

GM spokesman Brian Corbett said on Saturday the Detroit-based automaker plans to make a major announcement Tuesday about hybrid technology at a press conference during the Geneva Motor Show"

They need to get the lithium from somewhere!

Regards and Good Luck as Always


WASL

[shasta]

Following article in the Melbourne Age

"Daimler AG is planning to roll out a hybrid version of its Mercedes-Benz flagship S-Class luxury sedan that uses a kind of battery already widely used in consumer electronics.

Daimler said that it has adapted lithium-ion technology to meet demanding automotive requirements. Daimler said the new battery will be used in the S 400 BlueHYBRID beginning next year.

"What we have here is a groundbreaking key technology that is going to be a decisive factor for the future success of the automotive industry," Daimler Board of Management member Thomas Weber said in a statement.

Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler's announcement indicates an increase in confidence about lithium-ion technology. Other automakers are working on lithium-ion batteries.

Toyota Motor Corp said in December it was preparing to start mass producing lithium-ion batteries for low-emission vehicles.

Lithium-ion batteries, already widely used in laptops and other gadgets, are smaller yet more powerful than the nickel-metal hydride batteries used in gas-electric hybrids like the Japanese automaker's Prius.

General Motors Corp is developing the Chevrolet Volt, an electric sedan to be recharged by plugging it into a household outlet. Plans call for it to be powered by an electric motor fed by lithium-ion batteries.

GM spokesman Brian Corbett said on Saturday the Detroit-based automaker plans to make a major announcement Tuesday about hybrid technology at a press conference during the Geneva Motor Show"

They need to get the lithium from somewhere!

Regards and Good Luck as Always


WASL

PT fires out yet another "nothing" ann :D

Obviously the SP sliding is not sitting too well with him!

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/236c21514d77ea95508b9dfd882963c1/ASX-ADY-197563.pdf

[Damo79]

Well I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist myself... but given the chatter about shareprice manipulation by short selling, the following artilce is very interesting.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

Opes Prime Stockbroking is getting around ASX rules on short-selling by using stock lending. Funnily enough, the director that resigned today, Anthony Blumberg, did so to devote his time to the float of... Opes Prime. Hmm...

Cheers
Damo

[spruik]

Well I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist myself... but given the chatter about shareprice manipulation by short selling, the following artilce is very interesting.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

Opes Prime Stockbroking is getting around ASX rules on short-selling by using stock lending. Funnily enough, the director that resigned today, Anthony Blumberg, did so to devote his time to the float of... Opes Prime. Hmm...

Cheers
Damo

QUOTE FROM THAT ARTICLE:
"Forcing disclosure of stock lending shorts would introduce much more risk for short sellers because other investors would be able to monitor the situation and if they considered that a stock had been oversold they could buy heavily and push up the share price, forcing the shorters to cover at an even higher price."

Shorters are using your or my shares... off course we should know what is done with them. The system currently stinks badly.

How do we know at any time who uses our shares?

Limiting to 10% of capital is also a big farce. Imagine 10% of ADY being sold by one party at any time.

Lets go back to the old paper scrip system!

[STRAT]

Well I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist myself... but given the chatter about shareprice manipulation by short selling, the following artilce is very interesting.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

Opes Prime Stockbroking is getting around ASX rules on short-selling by using stock lending. Funnily enough, the director that resigned today, Anthony Blumberg, did so to devote his time to the float of... Opes Prime. Hmm...

Cheers
DamoIts no wonder the world economy is turning to custard when
Hyenas and vultures can legaly do crap like that. I will be adding the names in that article to my "avoid anything to do with these a-holes" list

does anyone here know if public companys have any say over whether their stock can be used in this way or not?

[stevo1]

Its no wonder the world economy is turning to custard when
Hyenas and vultures can legaly do crap like that.

does anyone here know if public companys have any say over whether their stock can be used in this way or not?

Strat public companies cannot control this.This has been going on with ADY for some time.But has declined in the last week or two.The timing of Blumburg s departure is a bit sus but of recent days a number of ADY shareholders have been pressuring ASX ASIC to investigate shorting and share lending.Under current legislation there is little they can do about share lending BUT are very interested in any hint of collusion affecting price which is their line of enquiry.Probably wont succeed in provable intent.The share lending issue needs to be curtailed under regulation poste haste to be made transparent and reportable.

[spruik]

Its no wonder the world economy is turning to custard when
Hyenas and vultures can legaly do crap like that. I will be adding the names in that article to my "avoid anything to do with these a-holes" list

does anyone here know if public companys have any say over whether their stock can be used in this way or not?

I think legally not, because shares are not owned by the company. A company can only buy back and then cancel those. But the shareholders should have every say, as owners.

[STRAT]

Steve & Spruik,
Thanks for your replies fellas. Shes a hard road being a bottom dweller like us when those further up the feeding chain can do this kind of stuff. While Im an advocate for free enterprise and free markets this stuff is just plain wrong to me. Double standards on my part? Perhaps:o

[shasta]

Its no wonder the world economy is turning to custard when
Hyenas and vultures can legaly do crap like that. I will be adding the names in that article to my "avoid anything to do with these a-holes" list

does anyone here know if public companys have any say over whether their stock can be used in this way or not?

Would entirely depend on a company's constitution i would imagine.

At least those shorting stocks are required to inform the ASX.

I'm keeping a watch on those stocks getting shorted...

[spruik]

Would entirely depend on a company's constitution i would imagine.

At least those shorting stocks are required to inform the ASX.

I'm keeping a watch on those stocks getting shorted...

That article (and others) highlighted how that is bypassed.

Nice to know that if you sell your shares at depressed prices chances are you are closing the trade of a shorter.

We can't trust brokers (and their recommendations)
We can't trust tip-sheets (usually get it wrong)
We can't trust directors (many told big porkies)

So even doing your own research may be based on lies and/or deception. Market needs investors, or capitalism doesn't work. But the same investors are defrauded.

[STRAT]

That article (and others) highlighted how that is bypassed.

Nice to know that if you sell your shares at depressed prices chances are you are closing the trade of a shorter.

We can't trust brokers (and their recommendations)
We can't trust tip-sheets (usually get it wrong)
We can't trust directors (many told big porkies)

So even doing your own research may be based on lies and/or deception. Market needs investors, or capitalism doesn't work. But the same investors are defrauded.Thats a strong argument fot TA there Spruik :D

[shasta]

Thats a strong argument fot TA there Spruik :D

Then PT didnt do us any favours by that ann, giving the shorters more time to do more damage.

I hope those evil shorters get caught unawares when the valuations come out (& they have to buy them to close there positions).

Thankfully these "games" being played have less than a month left

[STRAT]

The plot thickens.
Anthony Blumberg resigns from ADY

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080306/pdf/317wvxpd6tcd3k.pdf

The principal shareholders of Opes Prime are Laurie Emini, Julian Smith and Anthony Blumberg.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

No longer has time for his duties at ADY. Too busy shorting ADY to do any work there I guess

Anyone recon he got the boot?

[spruik]

The plot thickens.
Anthony Blumberg resigns from ADY

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080306/pdf/317wvxpd6tcd3k.pdf

The principal shareholders of Opes Prime are Laurie Emini, Julian Smith and Anthony Blumberg.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

No longer has time for his duties at ADY. Too busy shorting ADY to do any work there I guess

Anyone recon he got the boot?

One couldn't be that disrespectful...

Lend me just 10m ADY shares, start the selling at say 100K ave parcels on a weak XJO day and the panic sellers will join in all the way to 20c. By then I would have started the buy back. All over in a few days.

[spruik]

The plot thickens.
Anthony Blumberg resigns from ADY

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080306/pdf/317wvxpd6tcd3k.pdf

The principal shareholders of Opes Prime are Laurie Emini, Julian Smith and Anthony Blumberg.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23326088-16941,00.html

No longer has time for his duties at ADY. Too busy shorting ADY to do any work there I guess

Anyone recon he got the boot?

I'm sure Anthony is also associated with a number of hedge funds who meet every morning (collusion) to decide which company they will kill...

What else is he or has he been a director of? Inside trading... :(

[shasta]

I'm sure Anthony is also associated with a number of hedge funds who meet every morning (collusion) to decide which company they will kill...

What else is he or has he been a director of? Inside trading... :(

In a perverse way, it's flattering they see ADY as a shortable stock.

Those using this practice know they have a bit more time, before the stock runs.

Whats the bet many shorting ADY are merely trying to "trade" the swings & end up buying more!

No doubt they'll be back to profit from the volatility that a demerger brings

[Snapper]

If you're into this stock long-term does it really matter if the margin borrowers get screwed over by the short sellers?

What I would like to know is who is lending stock. If its institutions that's ok but if its custodial holders then that's not ok. I don't know if there's any rules about custodial shares being lent though...anyone have any ideas?

[tricha]

If you're into this stock long-term does it really matter if the margin borrowers get screwed over by the short sellers?

What I would like to know is who is lending stock. If its institutions that's ok but if its custodial holders then that's not ok. I don't know if there's any rules about custodial shares being lent though...anyone have any ideas?

You are right Snapper, its a medium\long term stock and it does not matter a dam about margin borrowers and shorters.
Lithium Ion electric cars set to hit the market in 2009 and it
will set the Lithium market on fire.


$100 Oil Is Here to Stay
Paris, France - Auckland, New Zealand
Thursday, 6 March 2008
In This Issue:$


----------------------------------
From Dan Denning in Auckland, New Zealand:

--OPEC produces 32 million barrels of oil a day. And that, it reckons, is enough. The oil price suggests otherwise.

--Crude traded above $105 in New York. R.S. Sharma, the chairman of India's state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation told a conference that, "The $100 a barrel price is here to stay... If we look at statements from OPEC countries, when they say that $90 a barrel should be considered the floor price, it is a matter of great concern and anxiety. It is very disturbing for oil consuming countries."

--What countries don't consume oil? Iceland maybe, with its unique geothermal wealth. But really, the oil price is "very disturbing" for anyone who uses energy, which includes pretty much everyone.

--You reckon something has to give. The markets are reacting to lower interest rates in the States and in the dollar-pegged economies of the Gulf and China (even though China dropped its rigid dollar peg a few years ago.) Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke is setting the world on fire with inflation (http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/research/osi/epic.cfm?source=e9aoj302&alias=ar149).

--High prices should curb demand, but that hasn't happened yet. There may be some good investment news in all of this. And no, we don't mean that it's great news for energy stocks, although it is. Higher oil prices are going to accelerate the race for substitutes.

--Alternative and renewable energy had a dog of a year last year. Most sectors-except for resources-did. But with the oil price back on the boil... real commercial alternatives to getting energy from petroleum will probably get a second, third, and fourth look.

--Solar, geothermal, fuel cells, wind, waves... the whole portfolio of energy projects comes back into play the higher the oil price goes. It's true none of these things replace oil's sheer versatility as energy. But nothing will. So if the marketplace is going to work, it will have to cobble together a coalition of the able to begin replacing oil's centrality in our industrial economy.

--Don't expect it to happen fast, though. And don't be at all surprised if coal-dirty, dusty, black and villainous-plays a big role. Making fuel from coal by turning it into a gas and then liquefying it is old technology. But it will probably get a lot more interesting to oil-poor, coal-rich countries in the next few years. Nearly everyone has some kind of coal. Only a few countries have oil.

--After taking its lumps earlier in the week, gold got back in the game today, up $22 in New York. How tricky is the gold market? One the one hand, you have huge investment momentum driving people away from bonds and shares into tangibles. On the other, you have a worldwide credit deflation, from which no asset is seemingly immune.

--So which will it be for gold? Hyperinflation on lower U.S. interest rates? Or will the Mighty Midas metal be dragged down with property, shares, and fixed income? Reader comments below.

--The Aussie market continues to whipsaw between surprising manifestations of the credit crisis... and higher metals and energy prices. We are reminded of an old Saturday Night Live skit where Steve Martin finds a tub of yellow goo. "Is it dessert or is it floor wax?" he asks. "It's both."

[stevo1]

Well it looks like the ASX and ASIC are making the right noises on regulating share lending and looks like oz government will tax (previously capitol gains free) share lending.The short selling list will also be reduced.I expect these measures to be benifical to ADY and other share prices bringing transparency to shorting and taxation to share lending(making it less attractive).I agree with you major on the inherent damage done on future capitol raising and funding this practice could have (has had?) if left unchecked.Hopefully onwards and upwards for ADY from here

[Snapper]

Snapper and Tricha,
what makes you think that short selling, the shareprice, and consequently the market cap, has no effect on their cost of borrowing?

There will be NO medium to long term that you refer to if they can't borrow money, or borrow at reasonable rates. Especially when they are looking for $270m in further borrowings!
Continued short selling can bring down any company eventually, it's happening already and the smaller companies do not have anything to fall back on as do the big caps..


You might have to spell this one out for me! What is the connection between short selling and a company raising further capital? I still don't understand how it can affect the long-term viability of a company. If you're in and out of this stock all the time then it could be a problem but if you're a long-term holder then isn't it all just noise?

Still trying to get my head around what's all the fuss about.

Discl: Long-term holder of ADY

[STRAT]

You might have to spell this one out for me! What is the connection between short selling and a company raising further capital? I still don't understand how it can affect the long-term viability of a company. If you're in and out of this stock all the time then it could be a problem but if you're a long-term holder then isn't it all just noise?

Still trying to get my head around what's all the fuss about.

Discl: Long-term holder of ADYMarket cap can be viewed as market value. If you go to the bank for a loan they will ask you what your assets are. If your house goes down by 50&#37; this year ( market value ) the bank would lend you less and/or charge you interest at a higher rate because you would be deemed to be a higher risk.

PS hows the fishing over there this year?

[Snapper]

OK, that sounds logical but I'm very doubtful about the effect that short sellers have on ADY's price range. Sure, it might mean a few cents in either direction but if the ADY enthusiasts(of which I'm one) are correct then the price should be three times what it is now. I think that there are other reasons for its lacklustre shareprice performance...

I also hold LYC which is in a similar development phase to ADY. One thing I notice about the two stocks is that the amount of chatter re ADY is much higher than LYC. I think that Aussies in particular see it as more of a trading stock and are willing to sell for a smallish profit.

As far as the fishing goes, I used to be a commercial fisherman (hence the name) but since getting out of that industry haven't had the urge to put a rod in the water. My brother does, though, and over Xmas he was coming in with 8-9 hapuku (groper to you Aussies) after about an hour's fishing. They had to stop themselves going out in the end because the freezer was full.

Cheers

[spruik]

Market cap can be viewed as market value. If you go to the bank for a loan they will ask you what your assets are. If your house goes down by 50% this year ( market value ) the bank would lend you less and/or charge you interest at a higher rate because you would be deemed to be a higher risk.

PS hows the fishing over there this year?

Exactly.

If a company needs to raise 10c per share for ongoing essential work, and the share price is 20c, most people will buy more shares and the company can live on. The purchaser of the new shares may have no intention to sell them, but it feels good to him to have bought at half their market value.

When shorters kill the price to 10c or thereabouts all incentive is gone. The company therefore won't get it's needed capital and as a result may have to fold.

If shorters close their trades before such capital raisings, the damage is less than if they keep their positions open. However, many holders would have sold out on the way down just because the sp is declining - and for no other reason. So the sp will stay down for the time being.

Shorting may be fun, but it's the ultimate greed that the financial system does not need.

SHORTING DOES NOT SERVE ANYBODY BUT THE SHORTER HIMSELF. and in the process kills value for all others.

[STRAT]

and right now, Credit Crunch and all, this is even more important

[h2so4]

Watch MAK sp slide, they are in this position right now.

[shasta]

and right now, Credit Crunch and all, this is even more important

ADY have bankers literally lining up to provide them with lines of credit, so whats all this crap about shorting having ANY effect on ADY?

IMO post split both companies may make placements to companies that were interested in the tender process.

There would be PLENTY of companies wanting in to ensure a supply chain.

[STRAT]

Hi Shasta, my comments were in general terms and not specific to only ADY

[shasta]

Hi Shasta, my comments were in general terms and not specific to only ADY

Sorry, my comments weren't aimed at you personally.

Merely lamenting the uninformed postings here...

If you think ADY will have any problems securing funding, then email PT & ask him like i do!

ADY/RLL hold vast amounts of the 3 hot resources in vogue at the moment. (Iron Ore, Lithium & Potash).

Just look at the Lithium 10% tender!

There is also a vast amount of money looking to return into the market when things brighten, & looking to go into "selective" stocks, i believe ADY fits the bill here.

Perhaps once the valuations are out we will see some actions on the SSH notices.

[spruik]

Sorry, my comments weren't aimed at you personally.

Merely lamenting the uninformed postings here...

If you think ADY will have any problems securing funding, then email PT & ask him like i do!

ADY/RLL hold vast amounts of the 3 hot resources in vogue at the moment. (Iron Ore, Lithium & Potash).

Just look at the Lithium 10% tender!

There is also a vast amount of money looking to return into the market when things brighten, & looking to go into "selective" stocks, i believe ADY fits the bill here.

Perhaps once the valuations are out we will see some actions on the SSH notices.

Any "uninformed" posts were from those who gave their views on shorting and the effect thereof. Nothing uninformed about that. ADY has been shorted, so those posts are relevant.

Shasta, you are a keen supporter of this stock and so am I, like others. However you haven't always been right in terms of sp. Like, "it will bounce hard at 45c". Well, look at what it is today.

And for those who believed they could put a $1 or $2 in front of it (including you)... doesn't look like it in the immediate future. Blame the market of course, but ADY shareprice IS the market.

[tricha]

The Shorters will get short circuited very soon I reckon, the stuff that Galaxy have is very low grade Lithium Spodumene and to turn it into Lithium Carbonate is a very, very expensive process. As soon as ADY announce a Lithium partener, lights out shorters :D and they will, what they have is 100 times better than Galaxy.


.................................................. .................................................
Mining & Business


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Galaxy shares into orbit


6th March 2008, 11:15 WST


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Galaxy Resources believes that demand for mobile phone and laptop batteries will drive development of a $1 billion lithium and tantalum deposit near Ravensthorpe.
The company is conducting a bankable feasibility study (due for completion by September) for the Mount Cattlin project and is confident it affords “a straight forward and robust project, based on a shallow open pit mine, low overburden ratios and conventional, proven and readily available processing technology”.
The announcement sent Galaxy shares into orbit on Tuesday, up nearly 64 per cent during trade, settling up 31 per cent on 40c.
Galaxy, a rare metals interest, said lithium and tantalum (primarily used in long life batteries) are in short supply and face strong demand growth.
Lithium carbonate sells for US$6000/t and tantalum concentrate sells for US$45/lb. An initial resource estimate suggested 2.04 million tonnes spodumene (a lower grade lithium concentrate) and 6.62 million pounds tantalum.
Included in this estimate was a higher grade resource of 1.81 million tonnes spodumene and 3.8 million pounds tantalum.
A pre-feasibility study suggested the company had a commercially viable project based on processing levels of one million tonnes per annum for 10 years.
Galaxy managing director Michael Fotios said Mount Cattlin had the potential to become one of the world's most significant producers of spodumene concentrate and lithium carbonate.
“Mount Cattlin continues to confirm its potential as a valuable project for the company, with our preferred development path to now include the production of the high value-added product lithium carbonate,” he said.
“The project has the potential to deliver an excellent return to the company, including significant capital growth and dividends for shareholders.”
Since December, pit modelling and financial analysis have helped the company's infill drilling program. Major contracts for the project are being awarded.
“Discussions are also being held with various international engineering groups with expertise in designing lithium carbonate processing and production plants,” the company said.
“This component of the BFS is expected to be awarded in the next three weeks. Galaxy is planning, subject to the conclusions of the bankable feasibility study and project funding, to commence the development of the mine and the construction of the processing plant and lithium carbonate refinery in late 2008 with first production in early 2010.”
BLAKE WILSHAW

[suntboy]

All comes back to market sentiment and the way we think in Suntland.
Lithium , Rare Earths etc people know the ADY's and LYC's of this world and look for new co's or co's changing tack and think they can get in early to make a quid (thinking the pioneers mentioned above are at top dollar ) which we all know is wrong.
Must say they flew under my radar but just shows what a bit of news does.
My thinking is instead of chasing stocks we should grab the backdoor listing "The Jones" were going to take and start a new Co dig a hole out the back of Taihape and post news every second day about how we think there is something in the soil , we all own 10 mill shares then flog it for what it is not worth.
Seems other boards get away with it.
Whos in?

Welcome to suntland

[boxing_beaver]

Seems other boards get away with it.
Whos in?

Welcome to suntland
Im in! See you in jail after the court case! :D

ADY still too speculative for me to jump in just yet, combined with market turmoil im staying out. still watching with interest, if only for sideshow that is the "what is PT gonna release to the ASX next!?!" show!

[The Big Ease]

edit.
woops

[hack]

Are you the same Serpie on H/C, with SBN ?


Ed
hack@aapt.net.au

[Serpie]

Same Serpie everywhere Hack.
I'll PM you rather than going off topic here.

[OutToLunch]

ADY has been added to the All Ords and the ASX 300.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20080306_QuartRebal.pdf

I'm still trying to get my head around this new FDR tax for we Noo Zillinders -- does this change now make ADY exempt from this tax? Preumably we still get hit for this FY though because ADY wasn't in these indices on Apr 1 2007. Anyone know?

[tobo]

ADY has been added to the All Ords and the ASX 300.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20080306_QuartRebal.pdf

I'm still trying to get my head around this new FDR tax for we Noo Zillinders -- does this change now make ADY exempt from this tax? Preumably we still get hit for this FY though because ADY wasn't in these indices on Apr 1 2007. Anyone know?

Re-read the info I have, and I don't know either, but all us NZers will need to know, so is there anyone out there who does?

And what? do we revalue at 31 March 08, or on the date ADY got added to the All Ords?

(Gee lucky for us that the IRD says in their domunentation that this FIF thing makes calcs easier :confused:

[shasta]

ADY has been added to the All Ords and the ASX 300.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20080306_QuartRebal.pdf

I'm still trying to get my head around this new FDR tax for we Noo Zillinders -- does this change now make ADY exempt from this tax? Preumably we still get hit for this FY though because ADY wasn't in these indices on Apr 1 2007. Anyone know?

Try this link for a comprehensive run down on FDR...

http://www.ird.govt.nz/technical-tax/legislation/2006/2006-81/2006-81-offshore/

[spruik]

Noticed that the net short position on ADY has increased from 1.8m to 2.2m over the past week. Not helpful.

[tobo]

Try this link for a comprehensive run down on FDR...

http://www.ird.govt.nz/technical-tax/legislation/2006/2006-81/2006-81-offshore/Thanks, shasta, for that,
Nice, a little light reading for a sunday afternoon.

this seems to be the pertinant part of the description of the exemption, copied from that web page
"ASX All Ordinaries index:
The exemption applies only to interests in Australianresident companies that are required to have a franking account in accordance with Australian tax law.
Generally, a New Zealand investor that receives a "franked" dividend from a company that is listed on the ASX All Ordinaries index will be entitled to this exemption from the foreign investment fund rules. The exemption should therefore be relatively easy to self-assess."

Since the focus is on the fact that those companies must comply with 'franking' law, I could interpret that ADY is now exempt since it now would have to comply with 'franking' law as regards dividends (there haven't been any, have there?), but the only way to know for sure appears to be to actually ask IRD, unless any tax law expert out there can read something further into that description...

[Zephyrus]

Don't forget this part...

"The exemption for Australian-resident companies is restricted to companies listed on an approved index of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). The approved ASX indices include the ASX All Ordinaries (the 500 largest listed companies), ASX 50 Leaders and ASX 200. The exemption should cater for most New Zealanders' portfolio share investments in Australia".

[Zephyrus]

Don't forget this part...

"The exemption for Australian-resident companies is restricted to companies listed on an approved index of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). The approved ASX indices include the ASX All Ordinaries (the 500 largest listed companies), ASX 50 Leaders and ASX 200. The exemption should cater for most New Zealanders' portfolio share investments in Australia".

Oops.. Didn't realise ADY has just been included into the All Ords.. Good news!!

[STRAT]

Mmm, Someones dumping again this afternoon. Hope I didnt get back in too soon what with the demerger being delayed a month23c today, I guess thats that question answered

[shasta]

23c today, I guess thats that question answered

Do i release my stop loss on ADY & hope it bounces, or leave it & trigger a slide :D

[STRAT]

LOL, Trigger a slide:D. Just make sure you hop back on for the return trip.

Then again the way things have been lookin the last few weeks it might just stay down there.:eek:

and mate you could have mentioned this earlier too:rolleyes:

[shasta]

LOL, Trigger a slide:D. Just make sure you hop back on for the return trip.

Then again the way things have been lookin the last few weeks it might just stay down there.:eek:

and mate you could have mentioned this earlier too:rolleyes:

Your right i could of, besides i could have been shorting ADY for all you know!

I'm happy to trade the volatility as i see fit. :)

Disc: Stop loss released, & i haven't bought or sold any ADY since last disclosing it!

[STRAT]

I'm happy to trade the volatility as i see fit. :)
As well you should too. If your holding is large youd be a mug to be tellin us your intentions ahead of the fact and I know you aint no mug;)

[shasta]

As well you should too. If your holding is large youd be a mug to be tellin us your intentions ahead of the fact and I know you aint no mug;)

I've already said i will retain RLL, & either trade/sell out of ADY (Post split).

However everyone has there price...:D

[spruik]

Not sure why one would place a stop-loss order, tell everyone about it and then pull it when it comes close.

I'll be making a take-over offer for ADY at 16 cents, soon...

[shasta]

Not sure why one would place a stop-loss order, tell everyone about it and then pull it when it comes close.

I'll be making a take-over offer for ADY at 16 cents, soon...

Don't like your chances of getting too many at 16c. :confused:

[Serpie]

I'll be making a take-over offer for ADY at 16 cents, soon...

Sing out if you need a partner Spruik!

I'm waiting for AKK to get a wriggle on so I can get back into ADY at these levels. Madness.

[spruik]

Don't like your chances of getting too many at 16c. :confused:

I do... when they've been trading for a while at 12c... :p

[spruik]

Sing out if you need a partner Spruik!

I'm waiting for AKK to get a wriggle on so I can get back into ADY at these levels. Madness.

Noted Serpie!

[Mothman]

Got some more at 25.5c today, been lurking on the thread for a while, (did post at the start).

After demerger very keen on RLL, so so on the Iron ore play, made some money in AXO, before the share price crashed.

Know some people who have been over to Japan and met with Subaru etc. They think Lithium is the next big technology in cars. Even if it only goes into 5% of new vehicles there is going to be big demand.

Shasta - who else apart from SQM has good lithium tenements? SQM will have to be checking these guys out for a T/O...

[Tech Step]

ORE keep saying that they have a similar deposit to IRL except higher grade.... The problem is that they are nowhere near production.

GXY also has lithium but from what I hear it is cost intensive due to the poor grade.

DYOR please.

[Tech Step]

On a side note the Iron ore play is only going to be good if they can ramp up production. At current production levels it is a waste of time. However if they ramp up to their 7mtpa then we will see a rocket under the SP.

[shasta]

ORE keep saying that they have a similar deposit to IRL except higher grade.... The problem is that they are nowhere near production.

GXY also has lithium but from what I hear it is cost intensive due to the poor grade.

DYOR please.

You simply cannot compare GXY to RLL. (that would be like comparing ADY to FMG).

Mothman - SQM is the only listed comparison re the lithium business.

Bring on the ADY/RLL valuations, what's the hold up?

Bought more ADY @ 24.5c today, after trading BBI...

[Tech Step]

Shasta.

I was not comparing, just pointing out that they are a company that "has lithium"

[stevo1]

Shasta.

I was not comparing, just pointing out that they are a company that "has lithium"

Probably one of the biggest potential supplers of lithium plus spodeme(and other LI products) are chinese CITIC GUOAN LITHIUM SCI&TECH CO LTD out of QUINANG SALT LAKES.They have had some difficulty with magnesium but may well have overcome that.Best to Google and check out for yourself to determine their place in the scheme of things

[steve fleming]

Bring on the ADY/RLL valuations, what's the hold up?


Shasta, I know the guys who are doing the ADY/RLL expert valuations.

It is a pretty complicated exercise.

[seaosh]

Probably one of the biggest potential supplers of lithium plus spodeme(and other LI products) are chinese CITIC GUOAN LITHIUM SCI&TECH CO LTD out of QUINANG SALT LAKES.They have had some difficulty with magnesium but may well have overcome that.Best to Google and check out for yourself to determine their place in the scheme of things

Could that be 'qinghai' salt lakes? There is no sound like 'qui' in Chinese. Qinghai (a province near Tibet) has salt lakes though, as does Tibet I think.

Just trying to help anyone who might be googling find what they are looking for. . .

[stevo1]

Could that be 'qinghai' salt lakes? There is no sound like 'qui' in Chinese. Qinghai (a province near Tibet) has salt lakes though, as does Tibet I think.

Just trying to help anyone who might be googling find what they are looking for. . .

yep Quinghai province Taijinaier Salt lake also producing spodUmene.

[shasta]

Shasta, I know the guys who are doing the ADY/RLL expert valuations.

It is a pretty complicated exercise.

Was just going off Phillip Thomas's earlier timetable.

As an Accountant i can fully appreciate such a "project" requires time.