ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[slam]

Jack
May pay to put these on a new thread.
Some good opportunities may arise.
Creating a watch list now :O)

Cheers Slam

[JackSprat]

Good idea Slam.

[STRAT]

Good idea Slam.Might not be worth the bother fellas


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...013408,00.html (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23458996-5013408,00.html)

Opes system failed
John Durie | March 31, 2008

OPES Prime collapsed because the firm's risk management system failed.

This is what ASIC is investigating while the firm’s secured lenders, ANZ and Merrill Lynch, are in the process of recovering their money, which was used in Opes’ margin lending business.

Attempts to somehow paint this as yet more evidence of the pernicious nature of stock lending and short-selling are frankly ludicrous.

ASIC and the ASX are looking at just how excessive client loans have broken the firm and, more to the point, just how the firm was able to continue trading when it was meant to be under supervision and said to have sufficient capital to trade.

ASIC may also care to ask how and why Tricom clients were apparently selling stocks like Hedley, EBI and Just Group late on Thursday, with the trades reported on Friday morning before the Opes collapse was reported.

Maybe these clients got wind of the Opes problems.

While this investigation continues, it is worth noting that the saga points more to the pitfalls of excessive risk rather than systemic risk.

Those calling for creation of a super regulator to somehow solve the situation should be aware the problem is not with the system, but with the regulators not using the powers they already have.

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson this morning released his plans for US financial services regulation, which are remarkably similar to those in operation in Australia, with the creation of a national prudential authority (like APRA), business regulator (ASIC) and market oversight (the RBA).

The problem with stock-lending and short-selling is not the practice but the lack of disclosure, and this issue is being addressed.

Indeed, as Merrill Lynch and ANZ recover their money, those who have sold stocks short will have to cover those sales, which means actually buy the shares which, other things being equal, will put a floor under the share price, not cause a massive slump.

Investors who have borrowed too much to buy shares are now learning that stock prices fall as well as rise, and indeed the fact that short-selling has occurred has helped these folk by actually putting a lid on the price on the way up.

But the shrill call for more regulation just because some folk have taken excessive risks and lost their bets is of course a nonsense.

There is room for adjustments at the margin and Financial Services Minister Nick Sherry is right to push for some changes, as outlined on ABC radio this morning.

Merrill Lynch has sold around $325 million worth of the $500 million exposure it had to Opes, and ANZ has hired Goldman Sachs to sell stocks to recover the $750 million it is still owed from its $850 million exposure.

The Goldman mandate is to take its time to maximise the return.

Last Friday, ANZ sold around $100 million worth of stock at an average discount of 1.5 per cent, hardly fire-sale prices.

The bigger discounts were on the likes of Admiralty Resources, Monitor Energy and Sundance Resources, where, in small trades, the discount was over 10 per cent, and some ABC Learning was sold at a 4 per cent discount.

The ANZ action was prompted more by the emergence of so called operational irregularities, which caused it to withdraw support.

The bottom line is that while super returns will not be great for the last quarter, your money is still safe in the stock market and your superannuation funds will be just fine, albeit earning less than the extraordinary returns of the last couple of years

[shasta]

Might not be worth the bother fellas


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...013408,00.html (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23458996-5013408,00.html)

Opes system failed
John Durie | March 31, 2008

OPES Prime collapsed because the firm's risk management system failed.

This is what ASIC is investigating while the firm’s secured lenders, ANZ and Merrill Lynch, are in the process of recovering their money, which was used in Opes’ margin lending business.

Attempts to somehow paint this as yet more evidence of the pernicious nature of stock lending and short-selling are frankly ludicrous.

ASIC and the ASX are looking at just how excessive client loans have broken the firm and, more to the point, just how the firm was able to continue trading when it was meant to be under supervision and said to have sufficient capital to trade.

ASIC may also care to ask how and why Tricom clients were apparently selling stocks like Hedley, EBI and Just Group late on Thursday, with the trades reported on Friday morning before the Opes collapse was reported.

Maybe these clients got wind of the Opes problems.

While this investigation continues, it is worth noting that the saga points more to the pitfalls of excessive risk rather than systemic risk.

Those calling for creation of a super regulator to somehow solve the situation should be aware the problem is not with the system, but with the regulators not using the powers they already have.

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson this morning released his plans for US financial services regulation, which are remarkably similar to those in operation in Australia, with the creation of a national prudential authority (like APRA), business regulator (ASIC) and market oversight (the RBA).

The problem with stock-lending and short-selling is not the practice but the lack of disclosure, and this issue is being addressed.

Indeed, as Merrill Lynch and ANZ recover their money, those who have sold stocks short will have to cover those sales, which means actually buy the shares which, other things being equal, will put a floor under the share price, not cause a massive slump.

Investors who have borrowed too much to buy shares are now learning that stock prices fall as well as rise, and indeed the fact that short-selling has occurred has helped these folk by actually putting a lid on the price on the way up.

But the shrill call for more regulation just because some folk have taken excessive risks and lost their bets is of course a nonsense.

There is room for adjustments at the margin and Financial Services Minister Nick Sherry is right to push for some changes, as outlined on ABC radio this morning.

Merrill Lynch has sold around $325 million worth of the $500 million exposure it had to Opes, and ANZ has hired Goldman Sachs to sell stocks to recover the $750 million it is still owed from its $850 million exposure.

The Goldman mandate is to take its time to maximise the return.

Last Friday, ANZ sold around $100 million worth of stock at an average discount of 1.5 per cent, hardly fire-sale prices.

The bigger discounts were on the likes of Admiralty Resources, Monitor Energy and Sundance Resources, where, in small trades, the discount was over 10 per cent, and some ABC Learning was sold at a 4 per cent discount.

The ANZ action was prompted more by the emergence of so called operational irregularities, which caused it to withdraw support.

The bottom line is that while super returns will not be great for the last quarter, your money is still safe in the stock market and your superannuation funds will be just fine, albeit earning less than the extraordinary returns of the last couple of years

Wow around 150m ADY shares traded already this week...

ML & ANZ havent wasted any time selling out!

Bit dodgey when the SP drops AFTER close, down to 16.5c.

Hopefully the next two days cleans out the rest of this mess, & we can resume normal programming next week!

[suntboy]

Wow around 150m ADY shares traded already this week...

ML & ANZ havent wasted any time selling out!

Bit dodgey when the SP drops AFTER close, down to 16.5c.

Hopefully the next two days cleans out the rest of this mess, & we can resume normal programming next week!

You call that dodgy Shasta .... Not long before close someone bought 3 GIP shares at .095 for a cost 29 cents moving the price up 4% and leaving 99,997 shares at that price.
After close those shares were pulled and another 3 shares @.096 were bought to up the price again.......WTF!!!

[macduffy]

Yes, it looks like someone is trying to edge the price of GIP upwards!
Mind you, seems an unpopular stock with minimal volume traded and not one of the infamous "Opes 700".

:cool:

[steve fleming]

Wow around 150m ADY shares traded already this week...

ML & ANZ havent wasted any time selling out!

Bit dodgey when the SP drops AFTER close, down to 16.5c.

Hopefully the next two days cleans out the rest of this mess, & we can resume normal programming next week!

Unlikely.

GSJBW only started selling ADY on behalf of ANZ yesterday.

They sold 10 million ADY shares yesterday and a further 25 million today.

According to the ADY registry details as at 14 March 2008, ANZ Nominees controlled 235 million ADY shares.

So potentially there is still a further 200 million ADY shares to off load....if they average 25 million a day, thats 8 more days...as long as support holds.

[soulman]

Yes, ADY looks in a clear downtrend now. Once it breach 20 cents, it look 12 to 14 cents before bouncing up. Then it's up to the operations of the company, the demerger and the dodgy executive PT. If all of PT shares were sold off and he didn't get a cent out of it because of the Opes debacle, then I would imagine PT just couldn't be bother turning up for work and couldn't care less about ADY since his vested interest is no more. Probably resignation or maybe he will stay on to earn some quid for his family.

The fundamental of ADY business I first thought was overvalued at 40 cents. For a coy that is currently valued at $170 mil now, maybe there is now value. I might have a dip at 13 cents.

Disclosure: Not a holder.

[shasta]

Unlikely.

GSJBW only started selling ADY on behalf of ANZ yesterday.

They sold 10 million ADY shares yesterday and a further 25 million today.

According to the ADY registry details as at 14 March 2008, ANZ Nominees controlled 235 million ADY shares.

So potentially there is still a further 200 million ADY shares to off load....if they average 25 million a day, thats 8 more days...as long as support holds.

Steve

Are you sure ALL of those shares are caught up in the Opes Prime mess?

We have had 15% of the company change hands in 3 days, & your saying we have another 20% to go?

What the hell is the ASIC/ASX doing about all this?

Australia's very own sub prime crisis? :eek:

[ScrappyO]

Unlikely.

GSJBW only started selling ADY on behalf of ANZ yesterday.

They sold 10 million ADY shares yesterday and a further 25 million today.

According to the ADY registry details as at 14 March 2008, ANZ Nominees controlled 235 million ADY shares.

So potentially there is still a further 200 million ADY shares to off load....if they average 25 million a day, thats 8 more days...as long as support holds.

If this was the case surely they have breached 19.99% takeover code?....If they aquired more from opes?

[steve fleming]

Steve

Are you sure ALL of those shares are caught up in the Opes Prime mess?

We have had 15% of the company change hands in 3 days, & your saying we have another 20% to go?

What the hell is the ASIC/ASX doing about all this?

Australia's very own sub prime crisis? :eek:

Hi Shasta,

At least 150 million shares of the 230 million shares controlled by ANZ Nom/s would be Opes related (80m- Hawkswood 40m-Leveraged 30m-PT).

According to Bloomberg trading records, GSJBW (who are acting for ANZ) have only sold approx 30million shares this week. ML appear to have sold all their holdings now as well.

There are a hell of a lot of other people selling,in addition to ANZ & ML.

But, the retail buying has been amazingly strong as well...until today.

And yeah...ASIC & ASX look like a bunch of amateurs.

[steve fleming]

If this was the case surely they have breached 19.99% takeover code?....If they aquired more from opes?

That is another interesting point raised over the last couple of days...there are a number of companies out there that ANZ should have theoretically launched takeovers of.

[Huang Chung]

If this was the case surely they have breached 19.99% takeover code?....If they aquired more from opes?

Anyone know the application of the take-over rules in a situation like this?

The 19.9% level must have been breached by ANZ time and time again....:eek:

[The Big Ease]

if you owned them because of default on a loan, surely you would be exempt from bidding for the entire company? wouldnt there be a period in which you would have to sell down?

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,

At least 150 million shares of the 230 million shares controlled by ANZ Nom/s would be Opes related (80m- Hawkswood 40m-Leveraged 30m-PT).

According to Bloomberg trading records, GSJBW (who are acting for ANZ) have only sold approx 30million shares this week. ML appear to have sold all their holdings now as well.

There are a hell of a lot of other people selling,in addition to ANZ & ML.

But, the retail buying has been amazingly strong as well...until today.

And yeah...ASIC & ASX look like a bunch of amateurs.

Cheers SF

I'm just stunned you know, if i knew now what i did when i first invested into ADY, i would have bought more Uran instead!

Far less risk than ADY at present!

At least GSJBW said they aim to maximise value & not just dump, so i agree we should see a minimum 20m shares sold each day, hopefully a few bargin hunters maintain some level of support above 15c.

Im not buying anymore ADY, & i havent sold any...

Am still in shock over PT's actions, for someone i had fairly regular contact with, i feel i've been led up the garden path...

Who was to know? :confused:

Disc: In shock :eek:

[Thumpa]

Fom ADY's website:

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Gobsmacking P.T quotes :


"The current situation is I am an unsecured creditor but being a highly sophisticated investor I will be working hard to change my status."


"I am NOT a seller of my shares and the tiny 3.9% dilution I have suffered is much less than the interest I would have suffered in the P and L going forward but I am not even going to go there as I doubt you would have the patience to understand."


"Perhaps the volatility (or lack of it) means ADY isn't a stock for everyone. Many Company MD's (including me) struggle with the fact that we create value through operations only to have it reduced through short terms trading. The real problem is there is little I can do to direct overseas hedge funds or local lads shorting the stock. I can persuade a buy story, I can plead, I can ask them to act responsibly to create shareholder value but it is difficult to stand in the way of a profit. "

"The reason why the share price is not six dollars is because we have a few tasks to complete which we are working on"

[shasta]

Fom ADY's website:

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Gobsmacking P.T quotes :


"The current situation is I am an unsecured creditor but being a highly sophisticated investor I will be working hard to change my status."


"I am NOT a seller of my shares and the tiny 3.9% dilution I have suffered is much less than the interest I would have suffered in the P and L going forward but I am not even going to go there as I doubt you would have the patience to understand."


"Perhaps the volatility (or lack of it) means ADY isn't a stock for everyone. Many Company MD's (including me) struggle with the fact that we create value through operations only to have it reduced through short terms trading. The real problem is there is little I can do to direct overseas hedge funds or local lads shorting the stock. I can persuade a buy story, I can plead, I can ask them to act responsibly to create shareholder value but it is difficult to stand in the way of a profit. "


"The reason why the share price is not six dollars is because we have a few tasks to complete which we are working on"


Fair to say they have more than a few things to do before they hit $6.

Perhaps when the shorting & games being played by the current board/managment stop, it will help!.

PT is really digging himself a bigger hole IMO...

I wish he would refocus on Rincon Lithium & leave this situation to play out.

[Halebop]

Personally I think either ANZ are remiss for not filing a substantial shareholder notice already (however the have a little time up their sleeves) or there is some difficulty regarding ownership of the securities?

ANZ aren't required to make a takeover offer should their effective "Mortgagee Possession" take them over the 19.99% threshold but they can be forced to reduce their holding to the threshold which is probably a moot point.

I think it's a big gap (but no accident) in the corporations act (Section 609) that allows lenders to avoid the disclosure regime. It is a highly material fact if a major shareholder has charges over his or her shares - particularly as lenders are rarely natural shareholders (and if they were it would probably be even more material). It also fosters an uneven playing field where those who know of the loan(s) can make profit or avoid losses at the expense of others - as we've seen from Hedge funds tactics and foolishly over-exposed company directors.

On the topic of ADY it is telling how "relevant" risks have become when they are unchanged from a few months ago. Amazing what a difference a few months makes. The risks are unchanged - just apparent - and now are all consuming rather than minor irritants from the (previously few) posters who dares mention a negative. However, now that the 20 cent support level has broken, the floor could be anywhere so even I'd be selling sub 20 if I still held.

I'm not sure the market has finished with alternative energy yet and suspect this company may yet have legs. Complete the Lithium pre pay agreement and get another shipment of Iron out the door and suddenly cash-flow won't look so tight. I'm keeping an eye on the chart.

[STRAT]

Looks like they have the 1 minute edit function on Topstocks too :rolleyes:

[STRAT]

I sold up this morning too. Who ever is dumping these shares on behalf of ANZ are doing an excellent job as I dont believe retail buyers alone are stopping this from dropping like a stone. That said I dont think they can keep it up either. I guess the big question is will ANZ sell the lot or just some in order to satify their needs. Im looking at a possible re entry over the next week.

Hi Halebop
I would be very interested in your TA thoughts as the next week progresses if you are feeling inclined to share :D

[GarryB]

So does this mean PT ** didn't ** reply to your many questions ?

[STRAT]

So does this mean PT ** didn't ** reply to your many questions ?Hi Garry, do you mean me? I havent asked PT any questions directly:confused:

[GarryB]

Hi Garry, do you mean me? I havent asked PT any questions directly:confused:

Ah, yeah, I did ..... but I was wr.... , wr.... , wr.... mistaken.

Must be undercaffeinated today.... Sorry for the confusion. It was SHASTA's post I wait for with bated breath.

[spruik]

Ah, yeah, I did ..... but I was wr.... , wr.... , wr.... mistaken.

Must be undercaffeinated today.... Sorry for the confusion. It was SHASTA's post I wait for with bated breath.

Shasta promised he would let us know, then he promised he would not... :(

Meanwhile back in the jungle, ADY Buy 0.160 Sell 0.165 now haven't seen sales at 0.160 (yet).

[soulman]

You will soon. 18 miliion shares on sale at 17 cents right now.

[shasta]

Shasta promised he would let us know, then he promised he would not... :(

Meanwhile back in the jungle, ADY Buy 0.160 Sell 0.165 now haven't seen sales at 0.160 (yet).

Spruik

Where exactly did i promise this?

I originally said i would post my reply, however with all the events since then, i'm not prepared to disclose my own research & questions/emails on ADY...

All i will say is that i will ride this current weakness out, & hold until i see the demerger information, & then i will make a decision on what i intend to do.

At the moment the Iron Ore business doesnt interest me, although the Lithium & Potash does.

Phillip Thomas is heading up Rincon Lithium Ltd, so that may put many off.

I still have some unanswered questions over PT's actions, but will give him the benefit of the doubt & see how he handles things from here on.

[spruik]

You will soon. 18 miliion shares on sale at 17 cents right now.

My neighbour who bought a couple of months ago still holds. Underscores never to ask anyone for a "tip"... certainly not mine :o

Maybe we can blame someone else... :p

[Serpie]

I'll be making a take-over offer for ADY at 16 cents, soon...

You posted that on 11/03/08 Spruik, and I said to sing out if you needed a partner. Can I change my mind please?

[spruik]

You posted that on 11/03/08 Spruik, and I said to sing out if you needed a partner. Can I change my mind please?

No worries Serpie!

However, that TO offer would be made when ADY has been trading at 12c for a while. :rolleyes:

[steve fleming]

So the "Becoming a substantial holder "notice from ML listed against ADY is historic, and will be , if you're correct, replaced by a "ceasing to be a holder "notice ? ( edit - in a few days )

( I guess ML are moving quickly to sll on the basis that they can't surrender what they don't have ?)

Out tonight.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=198316

[JackSprat]

My understanding of how banks, shorts, Opes Primes etc work is on about a level with a sparrow not knowing how a seagull flies so could someone explain to me how if the banks (ANZ) are selling 2 to 3 mill shares at a time then who's buying 2 to 3 mill at a time?? :confused: PT?

ADY holding it's own by the by.

[spruik]

My understanding of how banks, shorts, Opes Primes etc work is on about a level with a sparrow not knowing how a seagull flies so could someone explain to me how if the banks (ANZ) are selling 2 to 3 mill shares at a time then who's buying 2 to 3 mill at a time?? :confused: PT?

ADY holding it's own by the by.

Jack, if you have a look at the quantity of individual parcels on the buy side, nearly all of them are relatively small. Very few at 1M or so.

Say there are 20 buyers at 50,000 average and ANZ decides to dump 1M, then those 20 buyers will have bought once parcel from ANZ.

Of course you need to have a trading platform that can show the individual buy quantities.

[JackSprat]

Rt, I see. 4mill sold but with 55 trades, 1.3 mill bought with 26 trades. (As an example). Thanks Spruik. It seems to be holding pretty even.

I see there's a new Bulman drilling update out.

[shasta]

Rt, I see. 4mill sold but with 55 trades, 1.3 mill bought with 26 trades. (As an example). Thanks Spruik. It seems to be holding pretty even.

I see there's a new Bulman drilling update out.

Wow talk about volume, ADY has had 250m turnover in 5 days...

SF - How much left to go, in your opinion?

ADY seems to be holding up better than i thought it would.

[STRAT]

Wow talk about volume, ADY has had 250m turnover in 5 days...

SF - How much left to go, in your opinion?

ADY seems to be holding up better than i thought it would.Amazing eh? or fishy. I sure as hell dunno:confused:

[spruik]

Amazing eh? or fishy. I sure as hell dunno:confused:

The Bulman report was evidence that not everyone has vacated the office... (not yet anyway...) :rolleyes:

[steve fleming]

Wow talk about volume, ADY has had 250m turnover in 5 days...

SF - How much left to go, in your opinion?

ADY seems to be holding up better than i thought it would.

The buying strength is just amazing.....all the buying is coming from Commsec & Etrade, so would appear to be retail, but i find that hard to beleive....but then again it was retail spending $50m on CNP in one day, so maybe the retail market/demand is bigger than i thought.

ANZ (GSJBW) had sold 50 million up till yesterday, plus say another 35m - 40m today......so probably another 100 million odd to go? However ADY, unlike just about every other firm on the ASX, have not disclosed what their total exposure is....until they do, everyone is just guessing.

But there appears to be sufficient buyers to meet all the selling, quite unbelievable.

[steve fleming]

Not sure of the original media source- borrowed from a HC post.

I think there will be far more of the ADY murky dealings and connections to be revealed as the Opes mess is rolled out. I would not be surprised to see resignations from ADY and we all know the connection in this saga. Makes you now wonder the true story behind Blumbergs timing and resignation from the ADY board, and to think his excuse was so he could concentrate on the upcoming float of Opes Prime, when it was actually probably anything but!!!



Agree.

Not unsurprising to see that ADY's major shareholder was using its equity in ADY to fund the purchase of luxury cars and houses.

"It is believed part of the portfolio was made up of luxury cars and property that had been funded through loans given by Hawkswood."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23486150-643,00.html

[steve fleming]

Agree.

Not unsurprising to see that ADY's major shareholder was using its equity in ADY to fund the purchase of luxury cars and houses.

"It is believed part of the portfolio was made up of luxury cars and property that had been funded through loans given by Hawkswood."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23486150-643,00.html

I see that ex ADY director Anthony Blumberg has been required to hand over his Passport - ASIC obviously considers him a flight risk.

[shasta]

I see that ex ADY director Anthony Blumberg has been required to hand over his Passport - ASIC obviously considers him a flight risk.

SF, Wouldnt you take the money & depart for Rio? :D

God, when will the hurting stop on this stock! :confused:

I feel sorry for Robert Michael Clarke taking over ADY, when PT heads to Rincon Lithium.

I mean look how much baggage he now has to contend with?

[STRAT]

I could be very wrong here but I think all those who jumped overboard in the last few days may have over estimated the size of the hole in the boat.Im thinking now rather than one big hole many smaller holes and cracks are appearing. I was amazed by fridays close price and thought I had made a mistake selling but am more comfortable with my decision now.

Having seen how slowly factual info surfaces in situations like this many times in the past I suspect the tip of the iceburg is all we are seeing right now. Next week will be interesting for sure.

Major,
Thanks for the post above. There are a few dots in there readily in need of joining up that dont sit well on an empty stomach.

[tricha]

SF, Wouldnt you take the money & depart for Rio? :D

God, when will the hurting stop on this stock! :confused:

I feel sorry for Robert Michael Clarke taking over ADY, when PT heads to Rincon Lithium.

I mean look how much baggage he now has to contend with?

The hurting stops when you get out of it Shasta, how can you possible have 60% of your money in here and sleep at night?
Quite frankly its a dam shame, potentially billions in resources and being run by a few idiots.

[steve fleming]

http://www.theage.com.au/pdf/Affidavit.pdf

Read page 22 ofthe affidavit, and you will see how ADY shares have been ABSOLUTELY CATEGORICALLY involved in the fraud which caused Opes Prime to collapse.

AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE - basically using equity in some clients accounts to hide the shortfall in other client's accounts.

[spruik]

I find it unbelievable how TopStocks members have been rating ADY. Then again, PT also posts there...

========================================
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Members Top 5 Favourites: 3 - 5 Days (inc. w/ends)
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3.ASX:GRK (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=730) $0.512
4.ASX:CVI (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=397) $0.200
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Members Top 5 Favourites: 5 - 9 Days (inc. w/ends)
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Members Top 5 Favourites: 8 - 14 Days (inc. w/ends)
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4.ASX:GRK (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=730) $0.518
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Members Top 5 Favourites: 13 - 21 Days (inc. w/ends)
1.ASX:AGM (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=62) $2.66
2.ASX:PTR (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=1268) $3.448
3.ASX:ADY (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=27) $1.534
4.ASX:GDY (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=678) $4.096
5.ASX:WTF (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=forum&fid=2066) $16.000

[JackSprat]

I have just stuffed my ears with cotton wool because I don't wont to hear anymore BUT for the 64 million dollar question ? What's Monday going to bring - crash and burn or a charge right thru this mess ?

Must be a few long prison terms coming up......................

[h2so4]

Hey Spruik

Has the sharemarket become a TAB?



Open Bets/TipsRanking Support??? WTF?

[spruik]

http://www.theage.com.au/pdf/Affidavit.pdf

Read page 22 ofthe affidavit, and you will see how ADY shares have been ABSOLUTELY CATEGORICALLY involved in the fraud which caused Opes Prime to collapse.

AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE - basically using equity in some clients accounts to hide the shortfall in other client's accounts.

Thanks for the link Steve, interesting indeed. Who might that "F" client be? I suspect a big-time shorter and I suspect someone close to or part of management. Possibly either Thomas or Blumberg?

[spruik]

Thanks for the link Steve, interesting indeed. Who might that "F" client be? I suspect a big-time shorter and I suspect someone close to or part of management. Possibly either Thomas or Blumberg?

'F' is Sarah Brown Pty Ltd, a company jointly owned by Mr Murphy and an Opes subsidiary, Hawkswood Investments

http://business.theage.com.au/opes-unravels/20080404-23s6.html

[shasta]

'F' is Sarah Brown Pty Ltd, a company jointly owned by Mr Murphy and an Opes subsidiary, Hawkswood Investments

http://business.theage.com.au/opes-unravels/20080404-23s6.html

Another 50m+ day for ADY, thats over 300m in 6 days...

I must say im surprised ADY is holding up as well as it is. (currently @ 17.5c)

Normal volume for ADY would be around 10m per day, so thats an extra 250m in just 6 days???

The end must be near?

[spruik]

Another 50m+ day for ADY, thats over 300m in 6 days...

I must say im surprised ADY is holding up as well as it is. (currently @ 17.5c)

Normal volume for ADY would be around 10m per day, so thats an extra 250m in just 6 days???

The end must be near?

Not so fast. It's not only ANZ Nominees selling. Then we still like to know if and how PT was involved with the shortselling. I don't believe he knew nothing about it.

[shasta]

Not so fast. It's not only ANZ Nominees selling. Then we still like to know if and how PT was involved with the shortselling. I don't believe he knew nothing about it.

Merril Lynch have sold all there ADY shares, & ANZ have already started.

It seems ALL PT's shares have been caught up (going off SF's earlier posts).

I'm awaiting SSH notices from ANZ/PT to confirm this.

I see some companies have taken legal action to stop ANZ selling there stock, seems a little futile to me?

If it is proven that PT has been caught up in this with the short selling/lending his stock, then im outta of here.

If PT can't be trusted (& im undecided at this point), how can the general public have faith in him running Rincon Lithium?

I must say i'm surprised by the size of the volume over the last 6 days & no SSH notices.

[spruik]

Merril Lynch have sold all there ADY shares, & ANZ have already started.

It seems ALL PT's shares have been caught up (going off SF's earlier posts).

I'm awaiting SSH notices from ANZ/PT to confirm this.

I see some companies have taken legal action to stop ANZ selling there stock, seems a little futile to me?

If it is proven that PT has been caught up in this with the short selling/lending his stock, then im outta of here.

If PT can't be trusted (& im undecided at this point), how can the general public have faith in him running Rincon Lithium?

I must say i'm surprised by the size of the volume over the last 6 days & no SSH notices.

This is not directly related to ADY, except to say that directors should only be trusted to the extend they deserve. There are certain types of people who hold "high office" and abuse it.

As an example (going back many years), one person I knew (and still know) and had admiration for, was running a listed public company (with his mates) in which I was building up a stake to reach 5% (had my reasons). Without prior notice they sold the prime asset of that company without shareholder approval. My response was a prompt complaint resulting the company to be delisted and liquidated soon after.

The same persons later were operating another company to be listed. Employees and friends and everybody else bought shares etc. etc. They then sold the prime asset (the very business employing these people) to another company, indirectly pocketed the proceeds and had administrators appointed to the company, everybody losing all their money, as well as their employee entitlements.

I was writing new software for this company so I spent a lot of time there and understood what went on. The business name was Hills Telefix. The business has since evolved (now "Telefix").

Ruthless people without conscience abound in the corporate world. It's all legal too. I call it grand theft.

With suspicious issues surrounding ADY, it doesn't smell too good. Checking the history of directors is usually a good idea before investing.

[shane_m]

oh dear this is looking like Hansie Cronje's matrix movie "matchfix"

[soulman]

A clear downtrend. 15 cents coming and a bid at 14.5 cents might be a good idea. Nevertheless, buying ADY now will be like punting and willing to lose 100% of your capital. ie playing blackjack at the casino.

[The Big Ease]

im just, wondering when will it "bounce hard"?

[Damo79]

Announcement out. Small bonus payment for the last shipment because the Fe content exceeded specifications. $4m cash went to Cia Minera, while the rest went straight to "creditors". Was nice of the creditors to leave Cia Minera with a little spending money ;)

Also, only 39 000 tons now left in stockpile at the port and mine!! Where's the rest? Are they even producing anything any more?

Glad I'm out...

[shasta]

Announcement out. Small bonus payment for the last shipment because the Fe content exceeded specifications. $4m cash went to Cia Minera, while the rest went straight to "creditors". Was nice of the creditors to leave Cia Minera with a little spending money ;)

Also, only 39 000 tons now left in stockpile at the port and mine!! Where's the rest? Are they even producing anything any more?

Glad I'm out...

They had the shipment that attracted the bonus leave (49,560T) + 37,950 being loaded re the WISCO 06 contract, leaving some 39,000 stockpiled at the port. (The WISCO shipment will be the only one in April)

Yes, they are still producing Iron Ore, & its being stockpiled on site...

They can't just leave it at the port when there are no ships to transport it.

I would imagine in May when hopefully 2 shipments are available, they would have transported more Iron Ore to the port ready for loading.

ADY is meant to be producing around 30,000T per month (well down on its anticipated 100,000T per month). This is being ramped up as ADY have purchased more equipment to handle more Ore.

The main problem at present is the availability of ships to move the IO from the port. Even if they produced 100,000T a month, its not going to move & be sold until ADY spends the Capex required to upgrade the port facilities to be able to handle more Iron Ore.

I am unsure whether ADY has any contracts in place regarding increased shipping capabilities, but thats what they need ASAP!

[Huang Chung]

$4m cash went to Cia Minera, while the rest went straight to "creditors".


Shasta, out of curiosity, do you know if ADY's debt is going to be loaded into just one company post split....a bit like the way Toll loaded its existing debt into Asciano?

[Damo79]

They had the shipment that attracted the bonus leave (49,560T) + 37,950 being loaded re the WISCO 06 contract, leaving some 39,000 stockpiled at the port. (The WISCO shipment will be the only one in April)

Yes, they are still producing Iron Ore, & its being stockpiled on site...

They can't just leave it at the port when there are no ships to transport it.



Unfortunately not Shasta. From the announcement, there is 39000T at the port and mine! That's what got my attention.

[shasta]

Unfortunately not Shasta. From the announcement, there is 39000T at the port and mine! That's what got my attention.

You are quite correct, my mistake...

They will still be mining Iron Ore im just not sure at what level?

HC - No idea, although the Iron Ore business is a JV, so only debt associated with it should flow through to ADY, not RLL.

If you have seen the actions of Michael Kiernan with TTY/OLY/MON/IRL with the money go round, who knows!

[Damo79]

Errrr....

From announcement dated 18th Feb: there was supposedly 190000T of ore stockpiled at the port and mine.

* MV Hellenic Horizon took 43000T on the 21st Feb
* MV Bright Bulker took 49500T on the 22nd March.

190000T minus 43000T minus 49500T = about 97000T

The stockpile was then about 120000T. So apparent production of 23000T in a little under a month.

Announcement today:

* Madarin Moon will load 40000T, leaving 39000T stockpiled at the port and mine.

Doesn't that mean there was 79000T stockpiled as of yesterday?

Doesn't that mean that in 3 weeks of production, iron ore stockpiles have mysteriously decreased by 41000T for no apparent reason?

This is dodgy!!!

[shasta]

Errrr....

From announcement dated 18th Feb: there was supposedly 190000T of ore stockpiled at the port and mine.

* MV Hellenic Horizon took 43000T on the 21st Feb
* MV Bright Bulker took 49500T on the 22nd March.

190000T minus 43000T minus 49500T = about 97000T

The stockpile was then about 120000T. So apparent production of 23000T in a little under a month.

Announcement today:

* Madarin Moon will load 40000T, leaving 39000T stockpiled at the port and mine.

Doesn't that mean there was 79000T stockpiled as of yesterday?

Doesn't that mean that in 3 weeks of production, iron ore stockpiles have mysteriously decreased by 41000T for no apparent reason?

This is dodgy!!!

In the ann dated 17/3/08 - suggests 120,000T stockpiled

I've checked all the shipments from the 190,000T ann (18/2/08)

I got

21/2/08 - 43,600 shipped

17/3/08 - 48,500 shipped (for loading 21/3) (190,000 - 92,000 = 98,000)

Perhaps 22,000T produced & stockpiled to get to the 120,000T figure?

28/3/08 - 49,560 shipped

8/4/08 - 37,950 loading

(120,000 - 49560 - 37950 = approx ~32,000) - this would mean around 7,000T produced since 17th March (3 weeks).

I'd be more inclined to use the 120,000T figure & work off that.

Perhaps the reduced production levels are due to the equipment arriving & having to be set up etc?

Anyone else able to solve this mystery?

[Damo79]

Hi Shasta

You'll find that your figures for 28/3 and 17/3 were the same shipment (the Bright Bulker).

Which brings us back to a "negative production" of over 40000T since the 17th of March.

A mystery indeed!

[shasta]

Hi Shasta

You'll find that your figures for 28/3 and 17/3 were the same shipment (the Bright Bulker).

Which brings us back to a "negative production" of over 40000T since the 17th of March.

A mystery indeed!

The 40,000T figure is about a shipment, so whose stolen our Ore :D

All jokes aside i shall investigate this further, perhaps ANZ took it as collatoral :D

[h2so4]

The 40,000T figure is about a shipment, so whose stolen our Ore :D

All jokes aside i shall investigate this further, perhaps ANZ took it as collatoral :D

I recall seeing a picture of a ship sinking. I think it was this thread. :D

[alexroseinnes]

The buying strength is just amazing.....all the buying is coming from Commsec & Etrade, so would appear to be retail, but i find that hard to beleive....but then again it was retail spending $50m on CNP in one day, so maybe the retail market/demand is bigger than i thought.

ANZ (GSJBW) had sold 50 million up till yesterday, plus say another 35m - 40m today......so probably another 100 million odd to go? However ADY, unlike just about every other firm on the ASX, have not disclosed what their total exposure is....until they do, everyone is just guessing.

But there appears to be sufficient buyers to meet all the selling, quite unbelievable.

I thought the same thing but I saw the same on a share alled CHM. Was shocked at the daily volumes. Then it collapsed from 11c to 2c! I lost some big cash in ADY but learnt a valuable lesson. This whole mess stinks - money laundering etc!

[Bobbyvee]

One has to wonder if it is not (it surely has to be) just professional trading managed by ANZ to keep the market stable and steadily sell off their holding. It is obviously what they would doin the circumstances.

[spruik]

One has to wonder if it is not (it surely has to be) just professional trading managed by ANZ to keep the market stable and steadily sell off their holding. It is obviously what they would doin the circumstances.

Likewise my thinking. Those large buy orders/trades may well be their own in different accounts, thereby creating the appearance of "good support" enticing others to join the buy lists.

[shasta]

Likewise my thinking. Those large buy orders/trades may well be their own in different accounts, thereby creating the appearance of "good support" enticing others to join the buy lists.

The daily Opes Prime anns show that ANZ are slowly selling down, but seem to be avoiding dumping too many that would kill off any support.

Could take another 2 - 3 weeks at the rate they are selling?

What a mess!

[STRAT]

Drifting away from the general disscussions here for a moment can anyone confirm wether the so called potash reserve ADY say they have as a bi-product from the Lithium production is actually potash like that which sent MAK to the heavens.

My understanding is

MAK has K2SO4 ( the good stuff )

ADY has KCI ( not the good stuff )

[soulman]

I reckon get ready for 15 cents.

[shasta]

Drifting away from the general disscussions here for a moment can anyone confirm wether the so called potash reserve ADY say they have as a bi-product from the Lithium production is actually potash like that which sent MAK to the heavens.

My understanding is

MAK has K2SO4 ( the good stuff )

ADY has KCI ( not the good stuff )

Strat

It was there phosphate that sent MAK skywards?

[STRAT]

Strat

It was there phosphate that sent MAK skywards?Ooops:o

Let me start again:D


Drifting away from the general disscussions here for a moment can anyone confirm wether the so called potash reserve ADY say they have as a bi-product from the Lithium production is actually potash like that which sent RWD up this year.

My understanding is

RWD has K2SO4 ( the good stuff )

ADY has KCI ( not the good stuff )

[steve fleming]

The daily Opes Prime anns show that ANZ are slowly selling down, but seem to be avoiding dumping too many that would kill off any support.

Could take another 2 - 3 weeks at the rate they are selling?

What a mess!

I don't know whats going on now.

GSJBW executed only 3 trades on ADY today - worth a total of $17,500.....its as if they have given up trying to sell, or just taking a break.

Largest number of trades (199) were through commsec, totalling just over $2m.

Next largest was Westpac Broking with 56 trades.

[WASL]

One has to wonder if it is not (it surely has to be) just professional trading managed by ANZ to keep the market stable and steadily sell off their holding. It is obviously what they would doin the circumstances.

Hi Bobbyvee,

This is one for anyone. Can someone provide the actual number of ADY share still to be unloaded from the Opes debacle?

Cheers and

good luck as always

WASL

[Bobbyvee]

Hi WASL, from what I have seen I believe it is the range 180-190 million

[STRAT]

Strat i asked the same qustion on Aussie stock Forums
this is one of the replies in the RWD thread

If you search Potash under Wiki it states:

"The term has become somewhat ambiguous due to the substitution in fertilizers of cheaper potassium salts, such as potassium chloride (KCl) or potassium oxide (K2O)[1], to which the same common name is now sometimes also applied. "

Now looking at ADY website:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_05072...C_estimate.pdf
It states ADY has "Potassium chloride which is KCI" reserves it does not state Sulphate of Potash K2SO4 which is what RWD has, refer to YT on why this is relevant.

However ADY main aim is to drill out Lithium where KCI is a by product. In other words ADY gets KCI for free... so its an extra bonus for ADY. You would look to buy ADY shares if u like Iron Ore and Lithium not for their KCI.

not sure if i have the info i want but one step closerThanks for that Countryboy,
Yes, I realize it is secondary but things can change and this thread is testimony to that. As fertilizer is going off right now ( no pun intended ) it may become more significant.

[Drunk_Russian]

Hi Bobbyvee,

This is one for anyone. Can someone provide the actual number of ADY share still to be unloaded from the Opes debacle?

Cheers and

good luck as always

WASL

It's currently at or just below 100 mil. The daily announcement that ANZ is providing is most likely T+3. Refer to this morning's announcement which lists 150 mil, compared with yesterday's at 193? mil. The difference is probably the sales from last friday or this monday.

[Bobbyvee]

Interesting DR, maybe you are right, but I would have thought when ANZ stated their holding at a particular date it would include the actual sales of that day not the trade settlements. Anyonr else expert on this point?

[Joe King]

Bobbyvee, latest ANZ position update
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080411/pdf/318jg3dkzvpvy4.pdf
Cheers
JK

[Bobbyvee]

Thanks Joe King, and I note (as I had thought) on closer reading that it does say in a footnote that it includes all transactions to 10th close irrespective of whether settled or not.

[JackSprat]

Joe King, where u bin, lying in the sun, catching fish or hypernating for the summer, lol. Anyway good to see you're still alive and kicking.
ADY has been leading a merry dance, a bit like AGS and a hundred others but
IMO we're nearly thru the rough patch. What do I base that on, not TA, not astute financial calculation but I did think the presentation the other day laid it all out, nothing new but added a little clarification.
By the way, incase youre wondering who the hell I am, I used to be Johnofthex on the old AGS thread. Cheers now.

[spruik]

From me also a welcome back, Joe.

Sorry your AGS dreams didn't work out (never got anywhere near 5 bucks). Do you still hold a bucket full?

I used to be "bullebak" before. Couldn't figure out to logon after the upgrade to this new forum model.

Do you hold ADY?

[Drunk_Russian]

Thanks Joe King, and I note (as I had thought) on closer reading that it does say in a footnote that it includes all transactions to 10th close irrespective of whether settled or not.

"The interests identified in the schedule may include shares which have been held by the ANZ group pursuant to transactions which had not settled as at close of trading on 10 April 2008"

Doesn't that mean only the transactions that have settled are reflected in the figures???

[Joe King]

G'Day Johno, Bulle, thanks for kind comments.
The market was not the place to be Oct -Feb. Fortunately quit most AGS around 200 and rebought sub 100 just recently. The AGS story is not complete yet...
But this is ADY thread. Been looking ADY a year or so but missed the boat... The sub prime downturn followed by Opes Prime fiasco re-opened the door so have been loading up seriously. If there was ever a licence to print money offered on a plate ADY at current price must surely be IT!.
I look forward to watching this thread more. Cheers and good luck guys
Best regards
JK

[bear]

G'Day Johno, Bulle, thanks for kind comments.
The market was not the place to be Oct -Feb. Fortunately quit most AGS around 200 and rebought sub 100 just recently. The AGS story is not complete yet...
But this is ADY thread. Been looking ADY a year or so but missed the boat... The sub prime downturn followed by Opes Prime fiasco re-opened the door so have been loading up seriously. If there was ever a licence to print money offered on a plate ADY at current price must surely be IT!.
I look forward to watching this thread more. Cheers and good luck guys
Best regards
JK

Must say the events of the past month have beggared belief and no matter how tempting the price has been the current circumstances have yet to sway me to add to my position.

Fortunately still have some (thankfully still in the green) but until i can trust PT and others or at least have a clear timetable for the demerger i won't be adding to my position.:(

This company should be so much more than what it is today and i feel for those who are sitting on a substantial loss. It could be argued that the greed of a few has destroyed $m in wealth.

Hopefully the worst is over but for some reason i think there could be more to come before it gets better (in saying that i can't see it dropping below 14-15c but won't go very far). Sorry Joe king i'm not as confident as you at this point in time.

Bear

ps usually im optimistic - hoping my hunch is wrong ;)

[SCHUMACHER]

JK and others im one of the fortunate ADY holders and had held for a number of years.....bought around 7.5c in 2005 and sold at 55c....I admit to raving about it to my friends about how successful they will be in 5 years from when i purchased it.......ADY has had a rollercoaster ride over the years and most recently a massive decline to levels that were only seen back in april 2007 (1 yearago...)

I would now look at ADY and instantly think its undervalued but is it????
If it were a solid company then the shareprice would have held at least in the 30c range based on strong future earnings and fundamentals in general.....the OPES PRIME collapse has made a declining stock look alot worse....but you have to ask whether the fundamentals are as good as they may appear.........they have over 1 billion shares on issue which dilutes the EPS on any NPAT achieved.....

I view ADY now , as a company with great financial potential based on projected future earnings so whats the real deal for a stock with so much promise sitting around 17c? there is more than meets the eye......Sure OPESPRIME has had an effect but for a stock that hit 67c last year to be down over 70% im not sure I would buy into ADY especially since it is and has been in a serious long term downtrend since JULY 2007...well before the opes prime fiasco.............cheers SCHU

[Joe King]

Hi Schu.
It's been awhile. Always enjoy and respect your input both here and HC...
I believe the Co. fundamentals are secure. Blumbergs' departure will have to be good, and when the current market turmoil settles ADY will come out well.
Many Companies with rock solid fundamentals are really suffering atm... sheesh look at AGS..... expect to start trial U recovery before end of year, from 284 less than 1 year ago to (cough,cough splutter) 68c open today????
Let the good times roll... I'm ready
Cheers
JK

[STRAT]

. Blumbergs' departure will have to be good,
Cheers
JKHi joe, Gone but not forgotten?
There is an old saying " birds of a feather........." which should be of some concern. Have a read of this. Couldnt help but find myself reminded of the Plus SMS saga in 06

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/no-opes-and-shut-case-gatto-and-co-race-receivers-to-find-luxurycars/2008/04/12/1207856921304.html

originaly posted on the Opus thread by HC

[Joe King]

Hey Strat. keep an eye out for good European car deals....
****TO DAYS SPECIAL.... million ADY shares with every Lamborghini! CALL NOW!****
LOL! Actually, SP holding well considering general gloom in all markets.
Cheers JK

[STRAT]

Hey Strat. keep an eye out for good European car deals....
****TO DAYS SPECIAL.... million ADY shares with every Lamborghini! CALL NOW!****
LOL! Actually, SP holding well considering general gloom in all markets.
Cheers JK
Yeah Joe, Be careful The last thing you need when shopping for the perfect Lamborghini is to find out a few weeks after you get it tucked up warm and cosy in your garage that some 125kg fella with tats comes knocking at your door saying "Im from the ANZ and Im here to pick up their car" :D

[shane_m]

seems like ANZ gone from 20% ADY down to 12% ADY

[tricha]

ADY's potential is huge, but the million $ question still remains, can management do it:confused:

Potash Stocks Nourished by $400/Tonne Price Hike for Major Customer
By The Canadian Press
16 Apr 2008 at 05:15 PM GMT-04:00

SASKATOON (CP) -- Canadian and U.S. potash stocks were bursting with life Wednesday after a consortium of major Saskatchewan producers announced a US$400-a-tonne price increase for sales to Sinofert Holdings Ltd., China's biggest fertilizer distributor.
The new contract calls for shipment of one million tonnes of potash at US$576 per tonne when delivered to the Port of Vancouver, representing a 230% increase over the price in 2007 (not counting the cost of shipments to China.)

The contract negotiated by Canpotex Ltd., the offshore marketing agency for the Saskatchewan potash industry, was announced Wednesday morning by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. [TSX:POT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=POT.to)] - the world's largest potash producer and one of Canada's most valuable companies.
In addition to PotashCorp, Canpotex represents Calgary-based Agrium Inc. [TSX:AGU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AGU.to)] and Mosaic Co. of Plymouth, Minn. [NYSE:MOS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MOS)], which has mining operations in Saskatchewan.
PotashCorp stated that “as a result of the timing of this settlement and unprecedented demand in other markets,” Canpotex has only one million tonnes it can commit to Sinofert through the rest of this year.
“Significantly higher potash prices and extraordinarily tight supply have become much more firmly entrenched since China's previous contract was signed 14 months ago,” stated PotashCorp chief executive officer Bill Doyle.
“With the intense pressure on global food production and continued growth in potash demand, this is the reality for our industry for the foreseeable future.”
Doyle noted that the settlement with Sinofert - which is one-fifth owned by PotashCorp and is the largest fertilizer distributor in China - “highlights the importance of securing supply in an increasingly tight market.”
PotashCorp supplies 54% of Canpotex's requirements.
The announcement boosted the stocks of several companies Wednesday.
PotashCorp shares rose C$10.66 to C$198.81, a gain of 5.7%. The jump in the share price valued the company at C$62.7 billion, way ahead of Royal Bank of Canada as the country's second most valuable company.
Royal has a stock price of about C$52 billion, while Research in Motion [TSX:RIM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RIM.to)], maker of the BlackBerry e-mail devicie, has a stock value of about C$68 billion on the TSX.
Meanwhile, shares of Calgary-based Agrium, Canada's second-biggest fertilizer producer, gained C$4.45 to C$84.95, a rise of 5.5%.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Mosaic shares jumped US$5.67 to US$133.27.
Meanwhile, Hanfeng Evergreen, [TSX:HF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hf.to)], a Toronto-headquartered company that produces slow-release fertilizer in China for the Chinese market, rose 69 cents to C$12.89, a gain of 5.7%.
Saskatoon-based Athabasca Potash Inc. [TSX:API (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=api.to)] gained C$1.08 or 15% to C$8.28, with nearly 1.7 million shares traded by mid-afternoon, Calgary-based Anglo Potash Ltd. [TSX:AGP (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=agp.to)], rose 10.5% or 65 cents to C$6.85 and Vancouver-based Potash One Inc. [TSX:KCL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=kcl.to)] was up 10 cents or 2.5% to C$4.10.
Spur Ventures [TSX:SVU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=svu.to)], a Vancouver company that recently struck a deal with a private Chinese coal and gold miner to expand its fertilizer business in China, rose 10 cents to 86 cents, a jump of 13%.
© The Canadian Press 2008

[denpal]

That's it Tricha, can management deliver. I hold and theoretically this is a multi-bagger from here. I am sure that in hindsight 17c will be shown to have been the spot to load up the truck. But for me, I want to first know that we can produce to expectation at Rincon Salar.

[pago]

That's it Tricha, can management deliver. I hold and theoretically this is a multi-bagger from here. I am sure that in hindsight 17c will be shown to have been the spot to load up the truck. But for me, I want to first know that we can produce to expectation at Rincon Salar.

hi denpal, maybe 17c was a good buy,ady volume hugh today,85 mill shares,$15.2 mill value, closed at 19.5c up some 14%.i keep asking myself ,who is buying???cheers pago

[spruik]

hi denpal, maybe 17c was a good buy,ady volume hugh today,85 mill shares,$15.2 mill value, closed at 19.5c up some 14%.i keep asking myself ,who is buying???cheers pago

Perhaps PT buying his shares back on market.

[SCHUMACHER]

Good to see ADY get off that rediculous 17c mark.....the move yesterday could have just been due to being extreemly oversold on the charts ....good luck for the rest of the week ...ADY still a bit risky for me with the amount of issued capital but they are generating cashflow ...but still no profit....these projects need to increase in nameplate capacity to enable a better cashflow going forward...ive always liked the ADY story but not so much the actual shareprice volatility...not very stable if you look at the charts.......cheers Schu

[Ttops]

Perhaps PT buying his shares back on market.
That's a positive comment right Spruik? Are you thinking of buying back in?;) A day like yesterday usually indicates someone knows something is about to happen. Perhaps the sale is over and the last goodies were being snapped up.

[spruik]

That's a positive comment right Spruik? Are you thinking of buying back in?;) A day like yesterday usually indicates someone knows something is about to happen. Perhaps the sale is over and the last goodies were being snapped up.

Actually I did at 17 few days ago. Still half expecting a shoe to drop...:(

[Dr_Who]

I am gonna put some ADY away in my portfolio. They look cheap. Maybe Opes still selling?

[Jay]

I read this morning that ANZ have not sold anything since Thursday, due to the court case. So therefore they still have a heap of ADY??

[Dr_Who]

Hey Jay. Can you link the article please?

[Jay]

Hey Jay. Can you link the article please?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Court-mulls-over-ANZ-Beconwood-case-DWJ3K?OpenDocument

Hope that works!

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the link Jay. It doesnt specify it is ADY shares.

[foxysfolkfaced23]

I think at last report there was still 100 million + ADY shares to be sold by ANZ before they (ANZ) decided to halt due to the court case.........

[Jay]

Thanks for the link Jay. It doesnt specify it is ADY shares.
No, but as at the 17th they disclosed they had 125m approx according to the announcement notice ( I got this from ASB Securities - don't have to log in, just do a quote on ADY)
Or go here https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/Quotes/StockQuote.aspx?stockCode=ADY&exchange=ASX&image.x=25&image.y=11

[steve fleming]

I think at last report there was still 100 million + ADY shares to be sold by ANZ before they (ANZ) decided to halt due to the court case.........

ANZ let quite a few go yesterday and today.

A Japanese company, among others, has been doing a fair bit of buying of ADY recently.

[pago]

ANZ let quite a few go yesterday and today.

A Japanese company, among others, has been doing a fair bit of buying of ADY recently.

hi steve,can you explain on the buyers,cheers pago

[steve fleming]

hi steve,can you explain on the buyers,cheers pago
Hi Pago.

Fair bit of buying of ADY recently by Daiwa Securities (Japan).

However most of the trading is still retail (Commsec).

[Dr_Who]

I wonder if anyone has short positions on ADY anticipating ANZ sell down? I assume this sp will jump once ANZ is out. I have bought some for the portfolio. ADY seems to have some very large reserves and good spread.

[Dr_Who]

Another big day for ADY with nearly 80m turnover. Something's gotto give. If it can break through the 20 cent level it will be on its way.

ANZ only has 12% left in ADY. With this kind of daily turnover, they can sell their holdings in one day, no problem.

[pago]

hi ady thread a bit quiet,ady may be a good trade in days /weeks ahead.could revisit 24/25c previous trading range.reading the rumours/goss around the traps anz has 120 mill sharesto sell,could go in days,could be less if anz only has 25 mill sharesto sell.talk of 3/4 asian funds buying.ady shareturnover volume high,sp moved up 1/2c from 17c.im not a trader but i find the ady situation more then interesting.who is buying?ady is in the right sector for resources,iron,lithium,potash.just maybe a jointventure or whiteknight or finance?risky cheers pago.

[pago]

Hi Pago.

Fair bit of buying of ADY recently by Daiwa Securities (Japan).

However most of the trading is still retail (Commsec).

hi steve,any update on who is buying,i know we prob need to wait on anns,cheers pago,

[STRAT]

hi ady thread a bit quiet,ady may be a good trade in days /weeks ahead.could revisit 24/25c previous trading range.reading the rumours/goss around the traps anz has 120 mill sharesto sell,could go in days,could be less if anz only has 25 mill sharesto sell.talk of 3/4 asian funds buying.ady shareturnover volume high,sp moved up 1/2c from 17c.im not a trader but i find the ady situation more then interesting.who is buying?ady is in the right sector for resources,iron,lithium,potash.just maybe a jointventure or whiteknight or finance?risky cheers pago.I was thinkin the same thing. Might be time to look at gettin back on board. Problem is, I just dont have faith/trust in management any more.

[pago]

hi strat,i wasnt suggesting buy and hold,pago

[OutToLunch]

I was thinkin the same thing. Might be time to look at gettin back on board. Problem is, I just dont have faith/trust in management any more.

I don't either, but in any case I bought back a small (speculative) parcel at 0.19 last week, taking a punt that management are still beavering away in the background to get the show on the road. No longer willing to bet the house on it so my holding is <7% of what I originally held. The main trigger for me getting back in was the rise in potash prices, on top of rising oil prices (which will further encourage the Li side). On the more speculative side, we have an interesting situation for ANZ, who might just have to buy back all those shares they sold if the courts rule goes against them (don't know the timeframe for this though). And of course we have a lot of progress reports due.

Let's spin the wheel and see what happens.... :rolleyes:

[JackSprat]

Something of note worth looking at: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1445783/
PT taking ANZ to court

[OutToLunch]

Hmm. Yes just read this on TopStocks, posted by evwatkins:

Apr 27, 2008 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) --

-- Admiralty Resources has launched legal action on behalf of a Malaysia-based group, Panopus. Admiralty director, Phillip Thomas, who is also a director of Panopus, alleges that the ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees stopped 23.35 million Admiralty shares being returned to Panopus in the lead-up to the collapse of stockbroker, Opes Prime. Panopus provided the Admiralty shares in question to Opes as collateral in June 2007. A claim lodged in the Supreme Court of Victoria on 23 April 2008 states that Thomas wrote to Opes on behalf of Panopus on around 20 March, requesting the release of the Admiralty shares. The claim alleges that at some time shortly after 10:33am on 25 March, Opes directed ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees to transfer the shares back to Panopus, but that ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees stopped the transfer.

Publication Date: 28 April 2008
--

I'm spinning for red 4.... no, wait, black 12- um, ...let's put it all on black 7. Guaranteed! :eek:

[STRAT]

Hmm. Yes just read this on TopStocks, posted by evwatkins:

Apr 27, 2008 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) --

-- Admiralty Resources has launched legal action on behalf of a Malaysia-based group, Panopus. Admiralty director, Phillip Thomas, who is also a director of Panopus, alleges that the ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees stopped 23.35 million Admiralty shares being returned to Panopus in the lead-up to the collapse of stockbroker, Opes Prime. Panopus provided the Admiralty shares in question to Opes as collateral in June 2007. A claim lodged in the Supreme Court of Victoria on 23 April 2008 states that Thomas wrote to Opes on behalf of Panopus on around 20 March, requesting the release of the Admiralty shares. The claim alleges that at some time shortly after 10:33am on 25 March, Opes directed ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees to transfer the shares back to Panopus, but that ANZ Bank or ANZ Nominees stopped the transfer.

Publication Date: 28 April 2008
--

I'm spinning for red 4.... no, wait, black 12- um, ...let's put it all on black 7. Guaranteed! :eek:Its going to be an interesting month either way. Problem is, I recon the rally we are in right now is gonna be short lived so best guess where this will all settle in a month is the kind of stuff migraines are made of

[Lebowski]

Looks like PT was tipped off of the impending collapse by Blunderberg to me :eek:

[Dr_Who]

ADY going for a run... yipppeee :):)

[Joe King]

G'Day Johno, Bulle, thanks for kind comments.
The market was not the place to be Oct -Feb. Fortunately quit most AGS around 200 and rebought sub 100 just recently. The AGS story is not complete yet...
But this is ADY thread. Been looking ADY a year or so but missed the boat... The sub prime downturn followed by Opes Prime fiasco re-opened the door so have been loading up seriously. If there was ever a licence to print money offered on a plate ADY at current price must surely be IT!.
I look forward to watching this thread more. Cheers and good luck guys
Best regards
JK
Posted 2 weeks ago while loading up ADY 16.5-17c.......Hope I was not the only one to see this opp. Anyone else smiling?
Cheers JK

[shasta]

Posted 2 weeks ago while loading up ADY 16.5-17c.......Hope I was not the only one to see this opp. Anyone else smiling?
Cheers JK

Am very happy too, now ANZ are under 5%, ADY can re-gather some momentum in the lead up to the demerger date.

We have seen a huge amount of turnover in this stock & the tree shaking appears almost over...

[Dr_Who]

It seems like ANZ is the only seller of ADY. LOL

[Joe King]

Hi Shasta, nice to have a winner on a day when markets are down generally.... there are a lot of trades going through that would include some profit takers and panic buyers, but I think back to 30 by next week is not expecting too much..
Cheers and good luck
JK

[shasta]

It seems like ANZ is the only seller of ADY. LOL

Whose buying is of more interest?

Cant have 100m's turnover & just be mum & dad investors!

[Scuffer]

Quite right Shasta I never sold just kept topping up but I did not take up that amount of shortfall was it you ha ha. God that chick is hot I love the hair.

[STRAT]

God that chick is hot I love the hair.I wonder if some one in Easten Europe is saying the same thing about our Prime Minister :D

[Dr_Who]

I nearly topped up more ADY at 21 cents the other day, but backed out in the end and bought BPT instead. Was thinking of divesification BS blah blah blah. Hitting myself for not topping up more ADY... LOL

[Scuffer]

I wonder if some one in Easten Europe is saying the same thing about our Prime Minister :D
Of course they will she is lovely I've met her she is even better in the flesh the TV and a lot of her photos don't do her justice

[JackSprat]

Well all I can say is gratz to all those holding and after the Qtly out at the last minute today, I think we can safely say things are beginning the climb back at last. :D

[JackSprat]

Whose buying is of more interest?

Cant have 100m's turnover & just be mum & dad investors!

And it wasn't. Shasta the quarterly is out and its all good especially the financials and the fact ADY are patenting a new lithium purification system putting them into the top class world wide. The spin off for potash will be huge and your initial views posted here about ADY were obviously justified. Brilliant play by ADY management and especially PT by the looks.

[Dr_Who]

If ANZ loses the court case, will they have to buy back the shares they sold to cover their clients holdings? OUCH!!!! It will be great for the sp if ANZ has to buy the shares back... LOL :)

[spruik]

I have some for sale at $5.00 each.

[jdg]

i was impressed by the activities report, but the cashflow report appears to raise rather serious cashflow (solvency) problems. $714,000 in the bank with no credit facilities and expected costs of $3,650,000. what am i missing here?
-j

[STRAT]

i was impressed by the activities report, -jIf the open is anything to go by you are not alone it would seem

[jdg]

if their projections are anywhere near acurate, ADY is a steal (in fact, it's difficult to overstate). but certainly there appears to be issues around cashflow in the short term.
-j

[spruik]

if their projections are anywhere near acurate, ADY is a steal (in fact, it's difficult to overstate). but certainly there appears to be issues around cashflow in the short term.
-j

That's probably why ADY is still cheap, and the auditors expressed their concern.

There seems to be more or less one month cash supply left in the bank.

[Dr_Who]

if their projections are anywhere near acurate, ADY is a steal (in fact, it's difficult to overstate). but certainly there appears to be issues around cashflow in the short term.
-j

If their numbers are correct they shouldnt have nay problems raising capital. ANZ didnt have any problems selling down 23% of the shares. Maybe an opportunity to get more shares if the sp comes down?

[shasta]

That's probably why ADY is still cheap, and the auditors expressed their concern.

There seems to be more or less one month cash supply left in the bank.

Spruik

Don't forget the last IO shipment in April, was AFTER the end of the quarter.

The $US40m letter of credit mentioned in the 1/4ly will enable ADY to fund the expansion & allow some working capital.

Things are tight right now, but not as dire as they seem...

ADY is going to remain sub 25c until they do sort the cashflows out though.

[jdg]

it seems to me, so much is dependent on the outcome of the Shougang agreement. if Shougang are happy enough to enter into a deal that includes a $40m letter of credit then that is an enormous boost of confidence. if, however, after their visit they say, 'no thanks' - then there's problems.
in fact, when i saw friday's update i was initially rather confused. i read from the activities report that the $40m letter of credit as signed and sealed. even on re-reading it seems a little ambiguous. maybe that was just me.
truck loads to be made on this one if all goes well, but a management team that doesn't inspire great confidence. for me, the Shougang deal will signal which way she’ll go.

-j

[spruik]

it seems to me, so much is dependent on the outcome of the Shougang agreement. if Shougang are happy enough to enter into a deal that includes a $40m letter of credit then that is an enormous boost of confidence. if, however, after their visit they say, 'no thanks' - then there's problems.
in fact, when i saw friday's update i was initially rather confused. i read from the activities report that the $40m letter of credit as signed and sealed. even on re-reading it seems a little ambiguous. maybe that was just me.
truck loads to be made on this one if all goes well, but a management team that doesn't inspire great confidence. for me, the Shougang deal will signal which way she’ll go.

-j

The first item of the ann does state ."... being negotiated." Although the word "contract" should not be used in the news item header until such time there actually is one (a contract). It reads "Shougang Contract Update". This is misleading.

The Shougang people are apparently only interested in the IO. If the survival of the company depends on Shougang they may be in a position to drive a hard bargain. Indeed, if they walk out there may be problems.

With their executives visiting in June it will be many months before (and if) a good result can be reported. Meanwhile (I think) they have exclusive rights to negotiate.

If, as it appears, PT has lost his shares. Couple of years ago (reported on this thread I think) he was asked why he wanted so many shares and options. His reply was that he wanted a real incentive for the hard work. If his shares are gone, where would his incentive now be?

The recent share/options placement brings some working capital. That was never PT's idea, only debt financing.

Gee, what happened to all the dreams we had for this company (yes, I know).

[shasta]

The first item of the ann does state ."... being negotiated." Although the word "contract" should not be used in the news item header until such time there actually is one (a contract). It reads "Shougang Contract Update". This is misleading.

The Shougang people are apparently only interested in the IO. If the survival of the company depends on Shougang they may be in a position to drive a hard bargain. Indeed, if they walk out there may be problems.

With their executives visiting in June it will be many months before (and if) a good result can be reported. Meanwhile (I think) they have exclusive rights to negotiate.

If, as it appears, PT has lost his shares. Couple of years ago (reported on this thread I think) he was asked why he wanted so many shares and options. His reply was that he wanted a real incentive for the hard work. If his shares are gone, where would his incentive now be?

The recent share/options placement brings some working capital. That was never PT's idea, only debt financing.

Gee, what happened to all the dreams we had for this company (yes, I know).

We now know PT lost around 20m of his 48m shares, still holding 28m.

See recent ann

[dicey]

We now know PT lost around 20m of his 48m shares, still holding 28m.

See recent ann

Looks like the gods are helping him out. Quick, someone sell him their shares before he throws the towel in.

[GarryB]

RE PT's share parcel,

"....In a separate case, the Supreme Court of Victoria will hear on Friday an application by Panopus Plc, a company registered in the Malaysian tax haven of Labuan and which is associated with Admiralty Resources director Phillip Thomas.

Mr Thomas wants Opes Prime or ANZ to transfer back to Panopus 23.25 million Admiralty Resources shares which Panopus deposited with Opes last year as collateral for funds borrowed by Mr Thomas.

A writ filed by Panopus claims that on March 20 Mr Thomas transferred $1.2 million to his account at Opes Prime and at the same time asked the company to release 23.25 million Admiralty shares.

At this time, Opes Prime was in tense negotiations with ANZ as it tried to stave off bankruptcy.


from the Age, today 8th

[Dr_Who]

It would be so funny if ANZ loses the case and have to buy back PT's shares. :D

[Snapper]

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=20570&ch=specialsections&sc=batteries&pg=1

Interesting article re lithium batteries and how the technology has progressed to enable it to be extremely viable for electric cars. Apparently GM plan to start rolling them out en masse in 2010. If that happens it would be interesting to see what would happen long-term to the price of oil. In the article the author said that if half the vehicles in the US were electric powered by 2030 then the US would save 6 million barrels a day...

[spruik]

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=20570&ch=specialsections&sc=batteries&pg=1

Interesting article re lithium batteries and how the technology has progressed to enable it to be extremely viable for electric cars. Apparently GM plan to start rolling them out en masse in 2010. If that happens it would be interesting to see what would happen long-term to the price of oil. In the article the author said that if half the vehicles in the US were electric powered by 2030 then the US would save 6 million barrels a day...

Of course, lithium batteries are only energy storage devices. Whatever energy is saved from oil needs to be replaced by generating electricity - requiring oil or coal.

Best to go with nuclear power stations and for those who have a problem with storing spent fuel, we can send them on the way to the sun periodically (the spent fuel that is...).

[jdg]

another placement - that's how they'll solve the cashflow problem... BUT it was at substantial discount. looks like you might get to pick up a few more at 17 or 18 on monday, JK. i've got a handfull at 20c. pure gamble, though.

-j

[Ttops]

Does anyone know why the "pre-close" quotes never traded? Last trade 3.59.45pm. Something to do with the ann at 4.13pm perhaps? Looks like about 17.5 cents/share private placement?

[spruik]

Does anyone know why the "pre-close" quotes never traded? Last trade 3.59.45pm. Something to do with the ann at 4.13pm perhaps? Looks like about 17.5 cents/share private placement?

At 16:08:44 an ASX item headed "Notice Received" from ADY. That would have stopped trading immediately, so the quotes would remain untraded. These notices usually are ahead of the anns by the company itself.

The ann makes no mention these shares are issued conditionally. PT apparently replied to an email at TS that they are not to be traded within 12 months.

Maybe we all should read TS instead of ASX announcements. After all, www.ady.com.au (http://www.ady.com.au) promotes TS on its home page.

[Ttops]

At 16:08:44 an ASX item headed "Notice Received" from ADY. That would have stopped trading immediately, so the quotes would remain untraded. These notices usually are ahead of the anns by the company itself.

The ann makes no mention these shares are issued conditionally. PT apparently replied to an email at TS that they are not to be traded within 12 months.

Maybe we all should read TS instead of ASX announcements. After all, www.ady.com.au (http://www.ady.com.au) promotes TS on its home page.

Thanks spruik That explains it.
This timing of the release may not be accidental and may suggest "they" ie ADY expect the sp to fall Monday after the announcement? They wanted the trading to stop? I noticed a 400k sale at 17 cents was withdrawn about the same time as the ASX release.

[spruik]

I wasn't watching the screen that time, but I suspect the seller of that 400K parcel would have withdrawn because of the upcoming ann (hoping it to be a good one). If he/she had known it was a capital raising it would surely not have been withdrawn.

[STRAT]

I guess there is no doubt now that ADY have run out of cash.

[Dr_Who]

If it drops to 17 cents maybe it is an opportunity to pick up more stocks? I will watch and see, may top up on ADY.

[Joe King]

??? Why would "sophisticated" Investors enter into a conditional purchase when they could have bought as many as they wanted a week or so back at 17 on market (or if you gloomers are correct, next week) without conditions and trade them?
Presumably this deal would have taken several weeks to work out and finalise??
Cheers
JK

[winner69]

Do you guys think there will ever be a 'Peak Lithium' (as in Peak Oil) and if so when?

[Dr_Who]

If all the auto manufacturers starts going hybrid and/or electric car, then it is safe to say that demand will exceed supply for lithium.

If oil prices continues to climb I think electric technology is the way to go. Other alternatives energy is not a reality. Bio fuel will not be a reality as it will cause too much headache for food production. Hydrogen is only a dream, maybe a reality in 50 years time. So electric power is the only reality.

[Viking]

Do you guys think there will ever be a 'Peak Lithium' (as in Peak Oil) and if so when?

If there is don't think we'd be into too serious of problem compare to Peak Oil. Since we consume oil daily, but Li is more of a manufacturing material instead. We might more likely to hit Peak Steel, before Peak Lithium.

Note: Remember Ricon Salar alone had something like a 127 years of mine life~ with 70,000T of the stuff~ it would last a while IMHO.

[jdg]

i believe the Shougang contract will make or break this one in the short term. if Shougang, who with their due diligence are best placed to assess the potential of the IO side of things - god knows it's not easy getting a handle on it from the company releases -, sign on, then we should be away. if not, ADY is in trouble. i think this one is on a knife edge. be interested to hear any thoughts. i don't share your confidence, JK. that is, not until Shougang sign, anyway. and if that occurs, we'll all be dancing. good luck to us all. being in this one, i think we will need our fair share of it. it's a brave hold.

-j

ps. when i say 'brave' if i didn't have a modest stake i'd probably say 'mad', 'crazy' or 'outright bloody insane'. but i'm happy to roll the dice.

[jdg]

pps, it would be interesting to know if ANZ are totally out yet. out of the top 20 doesn't mean they still dont have a bundle that they are off loading. i would have expected a lift when that selling stopped.

[Dr_Who]

Interesting to see ADY breaking the downward movement late afternoon with a rally closing at 19.5. I was wanting to pick up some cheap stock at 16 cents.

[shasta]

Interesting to see ADY breaking the downward movement late afternoon with a rally closing at 19.5. I was wanting to pick up some cheap stock at 16 cents.

ADY has a habit of holding up when the DOW dives.

Nice close, lets hope the volume continues!

[jdg]

ADY has a habit of holding up when the DOW dives.

Nice close, lets hope the volume continues!


well, i hope that trend continues today, shasta...

[Halebop]

http://img79.imageshack.us/img79/961/ady200805jpegoe8.jpg

Bump.

[shasta]

http://img79.imageshack.us/img79/961/ady200805jpegoe8.jpg

Bump.

Cheers for the graph Halebop

Seems if we cant hold 17c this time, we may be heading back to 14c? :(

Lets hope we get a half decent ann to stop the rot & breach 20c!

[Halebop]

Hi Shasta,

16.5 - 17c is still looking pretty strong to me. I wouldn't be betting against that trend line though and would rather buy at 20 cents on the way up than 15 going down.

Holders will be hoping the $5m raised is enough. Further dilution from here will only prove expensive. Still, operating cash flow doesn't seem too bad on paper, I'm a little surprised they didn't trade through it so maybe their existing lenders have tightened up with the credit crunch. I'd still feel confident there is value in ADY but not so keen on the short term share price.

[tobo]

The Company has also established an email address dedicated to investor’s queries.
The email address is investors@ady.com.au

:eek:

[clearasmud]

looks as though its going to drop thru 17c.
i may mop some up @14c

[Dr_Who]

I will add some more shares to the portfolio at 14 cents. I think ADY has huge potential with their reserves if only they can get their act together. Management seems disorganised with lack of financial planning. Unloved in the short term, but full of potential in the long term.

[Hawke]

Watch for the sap to be rising on this one in comming days..........those buyers of 5 million $ of stock would only have done so with good news in the offing.

Good news must now be expected with plans on forward LITHIUM sales/iron ore supply- surely be making some headway. ADY to soon be fizzing at the bung!....I hold so hope so!!!

Hawke.

[rowanf]

Hawke ;
Did u buy alot at 20c , seem you are trying to ramp up the stock. How do you know any good news coming ???? physic powers

[Hawke]

I feel it in my bones............

Hawke.

[shasta]

I feel it in my bones............

Hawke.

We are due news on several fronts, & the fact we haven't heard more about the cashflow position yet worries me a little.

Dr Who is right, get the finances sorted & watch this fly.

Short term = HOLD (to get the lithium shares)

[Hawke]

Yes physic as well......

[jdg]

PT has just responded to a question on another forum. part of his answer included the following:

"We are currently working on an order for a significant amount of equipment - not just crushers, because as you know we are receiving $40m as part of the Shougang contract so we have a lot of new capacity to install"

now, not only does this mean the new crushers are yet to be ordered, but he is talking as if the Shougang deal is signed and sealed. what the...? on what planet do you talk about something so confidently that is yet to be finalised? for one, you're counting chickens before they hatch and two, surely Shougang can't look at this type of thing positively - if i was negotiating a contract and doing due diligence, i would be a little miffed if the other party took my signature for granted. i'm beginning to seriously question the guy's perspective. and mine, for holding this stock (albeit a gambling amount).

if this contract is not signed, this stock will plummet. holding ADY is about as comfortable as having cactus car seats. in fact, probably less comfortable. it's a bloody circus and the ring master is a monkey.

still, there is value in the assets. the 1.8b dollar question is, will we ever see it? roll up! roll up! the ADY show is in town and one way or another something interesting is going to happen. hold on to your cactus car seats, it going to be one hell of a ride.

-j

[shasta]

PT has just responded to a question on another forum. part of his answer included the following:

"We are currently working on an order for a significant amount of equipment - not just crushers, because as you know we are receiving $40m as part of the Shougang contract so we have a lot of new capacity to install"

now, not only does this mean the new crushers are yet to be ordered, but he is talking as if the Shougang deal is signed and sealed. what the...? on what planet do you talk about something so confidently that is yet to be finalised? for one, you're counting chickens before they hatch and two, surely Shougang can't look at this type of thing positively - if i was negotiating a contract and doing due diligence, i would be a little miffed if the other party took my signature for granted. i'm beginning to seriously question the guy's perspective. and mine, for holding this stock (albeit a gambling amount).

if this contract is not signed, this stock will plummet. holding ADY is about as comfortable as having cactus car seats. in fact, probably less comfortable. it's a bloody circus and the ring master is a monkey.

still, there is value in the assets. the 1.8b dollar question is, will we ever see it? roll up! roll up! the ADY show is in town and one way or another something interesting is going to happen. hold on to your cactus car seats, it going to be one hell of a ride.

-j

Heres the correction of there sloppy reporting...

What is going on at HQ?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=199888

[jdg]

it's a small thing, Shasta, but from a company that does little right it all adds up. moreover, unless they start getting some product to market, we'll see a few more Appendix 3B notices. will those contain the correct numbers? difficult to say. perhaps yogi knows.

-j

[shasta]

it's a small thing, Shasta, but from a company that does little right it all adds up. moreover, unless they start getting some product to market, we'll see a few more Appendix 3B notices. will those contain the correct numbers? difficult to say. perhaps yogi knows.

-j

I hope its no more than just a typo, but for a company that promises alot & delivers stuff all, it's a concern!

As i have said before, sort out the cash position split the company into 2 & watch both companies fly...:rolleyes:

PT's confidence in getting the deal is admirable (excuse the pun), but if ADY are deseparate for the cash, how much profit are they potentially "giving away" to secure it?

I would like to think the Board has a "Plan B", as they seem hellbent on expanding both ADY & RLL to full capacity before they have really got either off the ground & profitable, ie having Iron Ore stockpiled & not having the shipping contracted & sorted, urks me!

I would welcome the Board stepping back & focussing on the cash issue & gettings things up & running, before racking up more debt expanding.

Why don't they sell off Bulman etc there non-core assets???

I don't mean to sound negative, but in this case no news is bad news IMO.

I'd like to see ADY come out with an upfront, honest, no bull, no hype, update on where things are at, & what they are doing about it, including coming out with a viable "Plan B".

Oh, & i wish PT would stop posting on Topstocks, he keeps digging a bigger hole for himself!

[dicey]

I feel it in my bones............

Hawke.

lol
Yeah with the ground-breaking progress being made in lith. bat. tech.

[foxysfolkfaced23]

Don't forget that the "Shougang executives" are not visiting Cia Minera Santa Barbara until June, as announced at the start of May - so any contract announcement (good or bad) will probably not be made until after this happens

[Dr_Who]

Oh, & i wish PT would stop posting on Topstocks, he keeps digging a bigger hole for himself!

Hmmm....

The more this guy opens his mouth in public, the more I want to sell ADY.

If I were the Chinese, I would do a hostile T/O of ADY and secure the reserves. The Chinese have plenty of cash to develop the resources in the ground.

[spruik]

PT has just responded to a question on another forum. part of his answer included the following:

"We are currently working on an order for a significant amount of equipment - not just crushers, because as you know we are receiving $40m as part of the Shougang contract so we have a lot of new capacity to install"

now, not only does this mean the new crushers are yet to be ordered, but he is talking as if the Shougang deal is signed and sealed. what the...? on what planet do you talk about something so confidently that is yet to be finalised? for one, you're counting chickens before they hatch and two, surely Shougang can't look at this type of thing positively - if i was negotiating a contract and doing due diligence, i would be a little miffed if the other party took my signature for granted. i'm beginning to seriously question the guy's perspective. and mine, for holding this stock (albeit a gambling amount).

-j

The question put to PT was if the new crushers had been ordered. I agree, his reply implies they were not ordered, but he did not actually answer the question (Yes/No).

[spruik]

Don't forget that the "Shougang executives" are not visiting Cia Minera Santa Barbara until June, as announced at the start of May - so any contract announcement (good or bad) will probably not be made until after this happens

His son Aaron wrote on TS that they won't come until after the Olympics - meaning August at the earliest. Again the visa issue was raised which I think is cra p. I don't believe for a moment that top executives are not allowed to visit Australia when they want to, or that it takes a long time.

In response to another question on this subject, PT didn't give a firm answer either way.

[Dr_Who]

What hell is his son doing commenting on ADY???? Is this a circus?

I am soon to push the sell button on this.

[spruik]

For the TS community, there was a day of entertainment for all when Aaron decided to respond in a post I started titled "Proposal to ADY" (TS post #235551) . He has been reprimanded by his dad since and on relaying some facts to PT I received his personal apology.

At the current SP (18c) it must be worth a punt to stay in (I am in at (present), yet wouldn't be a bit surprised if nothing comes off with Shougang.

[shasta]

For the TS community, there was a day of entertainment for all when Aaron decided to respond in a post I started titled "Proposal to ADY" (TS post #235551) . He has been reprimanded by his dad since and on relaying some facts to PT I received his personal apology.

At the current SP (18c) it must be worth a punt to stay in (I am in at (present), yet wouldn't be a bit surprised if nothing comes off with Shougang.

ADY website has been updated, especially in relation to Rincon Lithium/Bolivia & some positive news!

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/2b44928ae11fb9384c4cf38708677c48.pdf

Plus PT shoots from the hip answering "shareholders" from Top$tocks

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

[spruik]

That post of PT sent the market into a selling frenzy soon afterwards. It's all Besalco's fault - why not inform the market properly and timely.

TS readers have become effectively insider traders.

[STRAT]

Originally Posted by shasta http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=203151#post203151)
Oh, & i wish PT would stop posting on Topstocks, he keeps digging a bigger hole for himself!

I posted something similar on TS. The locals were not impressed and ran me out of town:rolleyes:

[shasta]

Originally Posted by shasta http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=203151#post203151)
Oh, & i wish PT would stop posting on Topstocks, he keeps digging a bigger hole for himself!

I posted something similar on TS. The locals were not impressed and ran me out of town:rolleyes:

I was throwing stones from inside my own glasshouse :D

PT's in charge so i wish he'd take responsibility & do the job we pay him so handsomely for!

Not sure venting frustration on a public forum about there own contractors is necessarily "helpful" either.

[biker]

Is it my imagination or is this Company starting to resemble NZ's ICP BIO but on a much grander scale.

[AMR]

Someone should complain to the ASX over their postings.

I'd like to take that Aaron Thomas on in a TA competition. He seems convinced that the beta function is a trendline.

[spruik]

Someone should complain to the ASX over their postings.

I might be willing to do that, but it risks shutting the company down if it hits the news. That happened before.

[shasta]

I might be willing to do that, but it risks shutting the company down if it hits the news. That happened before.

ADY has one rather large thing in it's favour, total resources worth well over $US50B...:eek:

Would be a crying shame to not get the project off the ground & realise the true value of ADY/RLL

[Dr_Who]

Hmmmm.....

Either ADY is ripe for as a T/O target or it is ripe to go to the dumps. Management is a bunch of idiots talking crap on internet forum. The board should shut that idiot up and fire him. Shut him up and get on with the job.

The only thing that is keeping me in ADY is the huge untaped reserve they have. Ripe as a T/O target.

Shasta, what is the valuation on the reserve they have sitting there?

[spruik]

They might stay untaped... :mad:

[Halebop]

Worse still they might stay un-tapped. :p

[Dr_Who]

Worse still they might stay un-tapped. :p

LOL :D Stop makin fun of me engish!!

[spruik]

They'll probably call in the receivers any day now... :eek: Unlike before, there appears to be some contempt for shareholders.

But maybe, just maybe it'll fly one fine day ;)

[shasta]

Hmmmm.....

Either ADY is ripe for as a T/O target or it is ripe to go to the dumps. Management is a bunch of idiots talking crap on internet forum. The board should shut that idiot up and fire him. Shut him up and get on with the job.

The only thing that is keeping me in ADY is the huge untaped reserve they have. Ripe as a T/O target.

Shasta, what is the valuation on the reserve they have sitting there?

Here's the ann you are after...

Note, the prices mentioned in this ann have since risen ;)

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/asx_announcement/621bf66ddb7c962aa0d22ac97d69b793.pdf

[Dr_Who]

Here's the ann you are after...

Note, the prices mentioned in this ann have since risen ;)

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/asx_announcement/621bf66ddb7c962aa0d22ac97d69b793.pdf

Thanks Shasta. ADY sounds abit like IRN, but with the added bonus of the "idiot" management running the show. The market doesnt realise the full potential of their reserve until their is a T/O offer on the table.

I am gonna hold my shares and see how it goes.

[shasta]

Thanks Shasta. ADY sounds abit like IRN, but with the added bonus of the "idiot" management running the show. The market doesnt realise the full potential of their reserve until their is a T/O offer on the table.

I am gonna hold my shares and see how it goes.

I think labelling all Management as "idiots" is a tad unfair...

Tony Blumberg has left & he was a disgrace, & Phillip Thomas somehow got himself caught up in the Opes Prime saga, after trying to get clever & make some money on the side.

Sure PT hasn't covered himself in glory, & to some he is seen to be looking after "number 1", & throughout this whole saga the share price has suffered & technically is now looking rather weak.

BUT...

We have a few things on the horizon that suggest that not all is lost!

1. More JORC Iron Ore resources (well overdue?)
2. Conclusion to Shougang letter of credit/supply agreement (worth $40m)
3. Outcome of the 10&#37; Lithium tender (worth ~$50m)
4. Sorting out the crusher issue & ramping up the IO stockpile(s)
5. Sorting out the shipping arrangements at the port?
6. Results from the Lithium pilot plant & possibly some sales?
7. Potential to be involved with the Bolivians Lithium project?

I'm sure i've missed a few things out!

I rate ADY as a short term (< 12 months) a HOLD.
Mid - Long term it's a BUY (when both projects are producing at capacity)

As always the above is just my take on things, please DYOR :rolleyes:

[Halebop]

It's notable that we've had people comment they appreciate that management are forthcoming in terms of responding to queries, mostly via the TopStocks forum. This is quite a modern iteration of corporate communications and perhaps represents a paradigm shift in shareholder expectations. The flipside is an old management wisdom that silence keeps you out of trouble. Hence we have a number of people commenting on management's lack of intellectual capacity (It's a well worn argument that silence "makes" you smarter because you aren't allowed the opportunity to say something moronic - certainly a practice I've preferred to follow with the fairer sex!).

At contributors to forums we can all sympathise with the notions that sharing our thoughts gets us into trouble at different times. On balance, I suspect ADY would be better served putting a muzzle on their staff and communicating through their ASX disclosures (albeit in ADY's case with typo and spelling errors). Maybe a professional communications strategy through a PR firm would be money well spent. Their puckered sphincter in this regard is arguably penny wise, pound poor.

[spruik]

I think labelling all Management as "idiots" is a tad unfair...

Tony Blumberg has left & he was a disgrace, & Phillip Thomas somehow got himself caught up in the Opes Prime saga, after trying to get clever & make some money on the side.

Sure PT hasn't covered himself in glory, & to some he is seen to be looking after "number 1", & throughout this whole saga the share price has suffered & technically is now looking rather weak.

BUT...

We have a few things on the horizon that suggest that not all is lost!

1. More JORC Iron Ore resources (well overdue?)
2. Conclusion to Shougang letter of credit/supply agreement (worth $40m)
3. Outcome of the 10% Lithium tender (worth ~$50m)
4. Sorting out the crusher issue & ramping up the IO stockpile(s)
5. Sorting out the shipping arrangements at the port?
6. Results from the Lithium pilot plant & possibly some sales?
7. Potential to be involved with the Bolivians Lithium project?

I'm sure i've missed a few things out!

I rate ADY as a short term (< 12 months) a HOLD.
Mid - Long term it's a BUY (when both projects are producing at capacity)

As always the above is just my take on things, please DYOR :rolleyes:

The rot started LONG BEFORE the Opes saga. And the stock has been shorted big-time and consistantly alll the way from the 60s.

1. Yes, overdue.
2. Still waiting, Chinese officials not coming in June, maybe August (this came via the ADY grapevine).
3. Overdue...
4. Again via the same grapevine, they are planning more crushers but nothing has been ordered.
5. They rely on ships to become available in the area.
6. Overdue...
7. Bolivians are after their technology, perhaps planting spies...

[AMR]

Woah, you don't want to be investing in Bolivia!

"Bolivians seize Shell natural gas pipeline"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRNH_MSzJmHI&refer=latin_america

[spruik]

Woah, you don't want to be investing in Bolivia!

"Bolivians seize Shell natural gas pipeline"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRNH_MSzJmHI&refer=latin_america

When ADY first mentioned Bolivia I argued with Shasta about the probability of this happening to ADY.

Maybe I should sell the remainder of my interest in ADY. Everything is shonky and smelly.

[shasta]

When ADY first mentioned Bolivia I argued with Shasta about the probability of this happening to ADY.

Maybe I should sell the remainder of my interest in ADY. Everything is shonky and smelly.

Last one out turn out the lights? :confused:

Its heading that way...

I'm sticking with ADY & will see if they can sort otu the cashflow issues

Underdog - check the link i posted for Dr Who

[shasta]

cheers, read it

based on 400 years!!!/ $50b = $125m pa rev

yep, very nice numbers
why dont they just mine it 2-3x faster at least

just not enough demand for Li right now?

They could ramp the Lithium from 17,000T p.a up to 68,000T p.a when in full flight. (PT has stated this previously)

But they will need another 12 months to get the production levels up to the initial 17,000T p.a.

They need more capital to expand the operation, & they can refine the Lithium content much further beyond 99.0% purity to the higher priced, but lower demand more pure product.

At present there is not a huge level of demand for Lithium & in a few years the suppy side will exceed demand. Thing is no one really knows what the future demand will be like?

[soulman]

Don't believe management words. ADY is poised to collapsed due to the management, just as all coy that collapsed.

Bad management. This PT guy looks like a 25 year old trader (I think he is over 50) that likes to make his coins from trading/shorting and is this kind of management that kills company. Blumberg association with this coy all but kill investor confidence. The share has held up suprisingly well.

[shasta]

Don't believe management words. ADY is poised to collapsed due to the management, just as all coy that collapsed.

Bad management. This PT guy looks like a 25 year old trader (I think he is over 50) that likes to make his coins from trading/shorting and is this kind of management that kills company. Blumberg association with this coy all but kill investor confidence. The share has held up suprisingly well.

Good point there Soulman, ADY have made plenty of noises in the past...

The market generally discounts them now...

PT's credibility is in tatters, though i don't know much about Michael Clarke?

[tricha]

Don't believe management words. ADY is poised to collapsed due to the management, just as all coy that collapsed.

Bad management. This PT guy looks like a 25 year old trader (I think he is over 50) that likes to make his coins from trading/shorting and is this kind of management that kills company. Blumberg association with this coy all but kill investor confidence. The share has held up suprisingly well.

Rule # 3 in investing - quality management :rolleyes:

[tricha]

hmm, "rule no 3" according to whom?

WB doesnt seem to invest in rule 1 without your no 3???? so prey tell rule 1 and 2 first.

Arr, Rule #1 - Never lose money

Rule # 2 - Never lose money

U know who wrote these rules don't u Underdog ;)

[shasta]

Rule # 3 in investing - quality management :rolleyes:

Tricha

ADY have some of the top geologists working for them, & they have a very capable crew in Argentina.

Tony Blumberg & Phillip Thomas are the only "bad eggs", so i wouldn't write off the rest of ADY's management just yet...

BTW, I asked PT why there isnt a run down of Management/Senior staff on the website a while back & was told, why advertise & lose there top geologists to bigger players (apparently ADY pays them VERY well).

They are meant to be THAT good, & the recent article with the Bolivians seems to back up there technical skills.

My only real concern, PT is heading up Rincon Lithium :mad:

[spruik]

Tricha

ADY have some of the top geologists working for them, & they have a very capable crew in Argentina.

Tony Blumberg & Phillip Thomas are the only "bad eggs", so i wouldn't write off the rest of ADY's management just yet...

BTW, I asked PT why there isnt a run down of Management/Senior staff on the website a while back & was told, why advertise & lose there top geologists to bigger players (apparently ADY pays them VERY well).

They are meant to be THAT good, & the recent article with the Bolivians seems to back up there technical skills.

My only real concern, PT is heading up Rincon Lithium :mad:

As many have stopped believing PT, we also cannot believe what he says about his staff. But what we do know is they spend a lot on administration draining the coffers fast. Yet they don't understand a critical ingredient about any company: GOOD COMMUNICATION.

I say that bit about "advertise & lose" is also crap.

[shasta]

As many have stopped believing PT, we also cannot believe what he says about his staff. But what we do know is they spend a lot on administration draining the coffers fast. Yet they don't understand a critical ingredient about any company: GOOD COMMUNICATION.

I say that bit about "advertise & lose" is also crap.

Thats what i was told back then...:eek:

What has transpired since then has changed my views on PT.

If ADY went under, who ever bought the Rincon project would want the technical team & geologists who put it all together, therefore i do believe they are top class.

Pity management weren't as well :confused:

[tricha]

Tricha

ADY have some of the top geologists working for them, & they have a very capable crew in Argentina.

Tony Blumberg & Phillip Thomas are the only "bad eggs", so i wouldn't write off the rest of ADY's management just yet...

BTW, I asked PT why there isnt a run down of Management/Senior staff on the website a while back & was told, why advertise & lose there top geologists to bigger players (apparently ADY pays them VERY well).

They are meant to be THAT good, & the recent article with the Bolivians seems to back up there technical skills.

My only real concern, PT is heading up Rincon Lithium :mad:

Imm, sounds like PT misled u again Shasta.

1 - Geo's find the resource, that was defined long ago. ( and they have a world class resource)

2 -Top process engineers to set up the plant and fine tune it, in conjunction with top class metallurgists who work in conjunction with laboratory technicians.

Dam shame about PT, if management are not up to scratch, I'm out.
ADY have a wonderful product to produce, u never know, they might still do the business.

Might, could, should, maybe
Its a gamble, such is life :rolleyes:

The title of this thread still applies :confused:

[soulman]

I think it was Rule No 1: Don't lose money, Rule No 2: Don't forget rule No 1.

Bad management is the cause of wealth destruction, no doubt about it. You will do alright even if you pay too much for a coy (hence timing is wrong) but if the management are good, then you will be rewarded with time.

Bad management, then you have coy like AFG, ABS, CNP and MFS. You get a stock that will never recover and has it's reputation dented. More likely, most of your capital will be lost.

[Yossarian]

I say that bit about "advertise & lose" is also crap.

Totally agree... anyone in the industry would know who their key staff are, anyway.

Sounds to me like the staff are not up to spec rather than the other way around.

[spruik]

Asked by EAGLEHAWK on 03-06-2008
But I have never seen so many angry investors in my history of trading. I just hope good news is around the corner or a speed up on the demerger ... as the sp drops more and more and no news the angrier sentiment grows.
Investors are growing angry because promises, deadlines etc. are never utilised.
Hope you can prove them wrong soon.
All the best

Response From Phillip
Hi

most of the people expressing concerns don't read the detail - they read what we put out briefly and take it as gospel.

We are not in a library collecting books and putting them back on the shelves, we are in two real businesses in latin america managing a magnificent iron ore deposit as best we can.

Barrick Gold had to wait two years to get an environmental permit - we got ours in 3 months, we started production exactly one year and three months from when we bough the deposit. How long did Fortescue take, they had hassels over the railroad access, they are building ports, we created access to a port in three months etc etc etc.

So if day traders don't like how we are managing a complex business - then put stop losses on and sell - all you guys are sophisticated day traders. We have created a stock with a liquidity factor 1.5 times the ASX 300 so you can always get out. We have nutured a core institutional base holding 75% of the stock which is never traded, so basically the sentiment of anger doesn't bother me.

If we were not going forward then I would be the first to resign, move on - my time time is too precious to waste,and I have too much money tied up in Admiralty Resources to let it sit idle even with the Opes Prime position gone (hopefully I will get 62 cents in the dollar).

regards

All I will comment here is that PT's reply contains nothing to put any anger to rest, rather the opposite as it indicates (IMO) contempt.

[Snapper]

I understand why there is a certain amount of frustration with ADY but it seemed to me that ADY's shareprice was very announcement-driven which may well have suited traders but didn't make much difference with long-term holders. Like many others I'm a bit unnerved by PT's seemingly off the cuff pronouncements on Topstocks,etc but I'm trying to look past that with my fingers crossed.

I would rather they concentrated on the business rather than worrying about what the share price is doing. Once they have some decent cashflow then the share price will take care of itself.

On a side note there was an interesting article in the Australian about Tony Blumberg and the demise of Opes Prime. It doesn't make him out to be the villain of the piece, he cames out of it quite well.

Disc.
Slightly nervous holder

[Dr_Who]

Santa Barbara Update

• 10 year takeoff contract for 50% of production negotiations to be
finalised in China in July 2008
• Standby Letter of Credit securing $US40m loan agreed
• Six senior Shougang executives scheduled to Visit Cia Minera
Santa Barbara in June 2008 postponed due to delays in visa issue
• Besalco recommences production after maintenance completion
with 19,700 tonnes iron ore produced to 26 May 2008
• Plan to acquire two mobile crushers each with 500 tonnes per hour
crushing capacity - four months lead time
• Candelaria Port panamax option now ranked third, in comparison to
new panamax port option located 65 kilometers from the mine and
the second option a cape size port north of the Santa Barbara mine.

[spruik]

Negotiations still in progress. Only the promise of it by proposed letter of credit.

It may well happen, but still has to happen.

[spruik]

ASX:ADY re: Market had no idea
Post #238113 by: ADY-Thomas http://www.topstocks.com.au/images/rank_stars/new/6.gif (http://www.topstocks.com.au/investor_stock_trading_ranking.php)
Reads: 19 Position: Unknown Report Abuse (http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_discussion_forum_home.php?action=report_violat ion&postid=238113)05-06-2008 14:04
IP 61.9.xxx.xxx http://www.topstocks.com.au/images/version2.0/a_button/left.gifPRO Member (http://www.topstocks.com.au/share_trader_forum_accounts.php#pro)http://www.topstocks.com.au/images/version2.0/a_button/right.gifJust to be absolutely clear:

- the sign off from Shougang to proceed occurred at 5.30pm yesterday
- prior to the announcement there were only 3.0m shares traded on a downtrend this morning
- the third port option was only clinched about 10.30am this morning
- crusher delivery was only confirmed at 7.00am this morning
- electricity supply from the 345Kva grid was only confirmed Tuesday

So saying that you knew all this prior to the announcement is not believeable.

PT

__________________________________________

Contango

[Dr_Who]

I just sold out of ADY.

I have little confidence with management. I really cant see myself being in a company where management and his family go on internet sites and talk up and down the stocks sp.

Good luck to those still in ADY.

[jdg]

i did the same, dr who. sold half of my holding for the same reasons. the more i heard from PT the less i learned, and that can't be good. although today's announcement was the best in a while. might keep a very modest holding for a bit of fun, but i wouldn't dare have any serious money in this one. still, there is potential there and miracles do happen. i too wish holders luck, heaven knows well need all of that we can get.

-j

[Snapper]

Dr Who &jdg
Did you sell before or after the 20% increase in shareprice today?

Cheers

[Hawke]

Loooook at ADY Go.....me bones were just feeling like the update was due.

Hawke.

[shasta]

Loooook at ADY Go.....me bones were just feeling like the update was due.

Hawke.

Seems ADY may just get themselves out of this mess after all?

Interesting no update on Rincon?

Must be due some news soon?

Smacks of been held back to promote the share price :confused:

[tricha]

Seems ADY may just get themselves out of this mess after all?

Interesting no update on Rincon?

Must be due some news soon?

Smacks of been held back to promote the share price :confused:

U just never know your luck Shasta, PT might get replaced with a quality CEO to manage a quality asset.:p Then it would be game on.

Potash North Shares Bloom After Saskatchewan Mining Permit Granted
By The Canadian Press
04 Jun 2008 at 02:46 PM GMT-04:00

VANCOUVER (CP) -- Potash North Resource Corp. shares [TSX-V:PON (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PON.v)] rose as much as 750% Wednesday when trading resumed after the company announced it is being granted a Saskatchewan mining permit.
Stock in the newly renamed Timer Resources [TSX-V:TES (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TES.v)], which had been halted May 1 on the TSX Venture Exchange at 20 cents pending news, rocketed as high as C$1.70 Wednesday morning.

It changed hands later in the day at C$1.45, up by C$1.25 or 625%, with over five million shares traded by mid-afternoon. Its previous high was 22.5 cents, with typical daily volume of a few thousand shares.
Potash North announced late Tuesday it had received confirmation from the Saskatchewan Mines Branch that a potash permit has been issued covering 368 square kilometres for which the company had taken over the application on May 12.
In that deal, Timer Resources - which subsequently changed its name to Potash North effective May 30 - acquired the rights to two permits totalling 758 square kilometres northeast of Esterhazy.
It paid Peninsula Merchant Syndications Corp. C$1.95 million in cash, issued a C$1.75-million convertible debenture to Peninsula, and assumed Peninsula's obligation to pay C$2.6 million to Potash One Inc. [TSX-V:KCL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KCL.v)].
The permit area that provoked Wednesday's excitement includes two early-1960s drill holes that “encountered significant potash intersections.”
Potash North said it expects that a permit covering the other property will be issued shortly, and it will then “focus on the exploration, evaluation and development of the permit areas.”
Concurrently with the transfer of the permit applications, Peninsula - a private merchant bank controlled by Sam Magid, a co-founder of Salman Partners - agreed to arrange an C$8.4-million equity private placement.
Under the agreement, Peninsula will name a member to the Potash North board, and Craig Angus will become president and CEO, succeeding David Baker who will remain a director.
© The Canadian Press 2008

[shasta]

U just never know your luck Shasta, PT might get replaced with a quality CEO to manage a quality asset.:p Then it would be game on.

Potash North Shares Bloom After Saskatchewan Mining Permit Granted
By The Canadian Press
04 Jun 2008 at 02:46 PM GMT-04:00

VANCOUVER (CP) -- Potash North Resource Corp. shares [TSX-V:PON (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PON.v)] rose as much as 750% Wednesday when trading resumed after the company announced it is being granted a Saskatchewan mining permit.
Stock in the newly renamed Timer Resources [TSX-V:TES (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TES.v)], which had been halted May 1 on the TSX Venture Exchange at 20 cents pending news, rocketed as high as C$1.70 Wednesday morning.

It changed hands later in the day at C$1.45, up by C$1.25 or 625%, with over five million shares traded by mid-afternoon. Its previous high was 22.5 cents, with typical daily volume of a few thousand shares.
Potash North announced late Tuesday it had received confirmation from the Saskatchewan Mines Branch that a potash permit has been issued covering 368 square kilometres for which the company had taken over the application on May 12.
In that deal, Timer Resources - which subsequently changed its name to Potash North effective May 30 - acquired the rights to two permits totalling 758 square kilometres northeast of Esterhazy.
It paid Peninsula Merchant Syndications Corp. C$1.95 million in cash, issued a C$1.75-million convertible debenture to Peninsula, and assumed Peninsula's obligation to pay C$2.6 million to Potash One Inc. [TSX-V:KCL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KCL.v)].
The permit area that provoked Wednesday's excitement includes two early-1960s drill holes that “encountered significant potash intersections.”
Potash North said it expects that a permit covering the other property will be issued shortly, and it will then “focus on the exploration, evaluation and development of the permit areas.”
Concurrently with the transfer of the permit applications, Peninsula - a private merchant bank controlled by Sam Magid, a co-founder of Salman Partners - agreed to arrange an C$8.4-million equity private placement.
Under the agreement, Peninsula will name a member to the Potash North board, and Craig Angus will become president and CEO, succeeding David Baker who will remain a director.
© The Canadian Press 2008


Almost makes me want to compare ADY/PT to Duncan McBain & Cairns Hill :mad:

[spruik]

Paragraph from today's announcement:

Our Executive Director will visit China early in July 2008 to finalise the contract and negotiations around the loan security being provided by way of standby letter of credit of US$40m, to secure a loan from National Australia Bank. A draft of the proposed SBLC to be provided by Shougang International’s bank has been accepted by our Bankers.

Question on TS today:

Standby letter of credit Asked by mjp on 05-06-2008

Appreciated that update today PT - gave the market back a bit of confidence and indicating fruits from the work by yourself and Michael Clarke.

Are you able to provide any clarification regarding the status of the standby letter of credit? The announcement indicates that further negotiation on this is required during the visit in July. Is the required negotiation substantive or do you consider this a matter of detail and expected to be readily concluded?

The rest of the announcement suggests that you are confidently planning on spending the $40m, but it would be good to understand the remaining points requiring negotiation.

Many thanks
mjp

Response by PT today

Hi
the announcement doesn't say that. The form of the SBLC has been accepted - so now all that has to be done is it to be issued. Substantive details will be concluded before I go there.
regards
PT

My comment:
Finalizing negotiations means the negotiations are not yet completed. PT's response suggests there is nothing to be negotiated anymore.

Although the ann was well received, is still lacks clarity and certainty in my view. Nothing really substantial has happened just yet, but looks more likely to happen. Or more BS?

Comments appreciated.

[shasta]

Paragraph from today's announcement:

Our Executive Director will visit China early in July 2008 to finalise the contract and negotiations around the loan security being provided by way of standby letter of credit of US$40m, to secure a loan from National Australia Bank. A draft of the proposed SBLC to be provided by Shougang International’s bank has been accepted by our Bankers.

Question on TS today:

Standby letter of credit Asked by mjp on 05-06-2008

Appreciated that update today PT - gave the market back a bit of confidence and indicating fruits from the work by yourself and Michael Clarke.

Are you able to provide any clarification regarding the status of the standby letter of credit? The announcement indicates that further negotiation on this is required during the visit in July. Is the required negotiation substantive or do you consider this a matter of detail and expected to be readily concluded?

The rest of the announcement suggests that you are confidently planning on spending the $40m, but it would be good to understand the remaining points requiring negotiation.

Many thanks
mjp

Response by PT today

Hi
the announcement doesn't say that. The form of the SBLC has been accepted - so now all that has to be done is it to be issued. Substantive details will be concluded before I go there.
regards
PT

My comment:
Finalizing negotiations means the negotiations are not yet completed. PT's response suggests there is nothing to be negotiated anymore.

Although the ann was well received, is still lacks clarity and certainty in my view. Nothing really substantial has happened just yet, but looks more likely to happen. Or more BS?

Comments appreciated.

As the head of Rincon Lithium, i wish PT would spend more time working "on the business", & less on Topstocks :mad:

[soulman]

Wow, big news on the Blumberg V ANZ case.

Blumberg siphoned more than $40 mil from coy associated with Opes to fund his lifestyle, including paying a deposit for a helicopter and buying luxury cars.

Not sure if this affect ADY though but this PT looks like a crook as well with him spruiking and talking on the net. Shouldn't he be focussing on his job and answering all shareholders questions via coy announcement, not just those on TopStocks? Go figure.

If ADY was to announce a big news later on, I bet all his friends, cousins and relative will have an inside tip first and make good coins. He looks like a dodgy operator and want to make some dough on the side as well as getting paid by all you shareholders out there for managing the coy. Any chance he get to make easy cash with inside info, he will do it. A Steve Wizard in the making.

[Dr_Who]

Soulman. Your assessment is bang on. That is why I sold out my shares in ADY. I have no confidence in PT.

It is a real shame thou. There is so much potential for ADY. IT just needs a good management team with credibility to add value. Until they replace management, I am staying out of ADY.

I am now totally out of commodity stocks. I need to find a cheap commodity stock to invest in.

[spruik]

I always suspected and remain suspicious of Blumberg having shorted this stock big-time. At least I think all the short trades should be investigated.

I also remain convinced PT is not innocent. I read a report saying PT asked for his shares back two days before Opes collapsed. In another report it was also 2 days before Opes collapsed that Blumberg warned ANZ. With PT and Blumberg being buddies it adds up.

Now the promise to all suckers has been rekindled. It's only the promise... so close now... and the masses are jubilent once again. Dreams of fortunes are alive again after so much suffering.

Money has once again moved from the masses to the few more recently so they can flog the millions once again.

In reality, yesterday's ann (containing little of serious substance) was delivered because the masses were screaming for it - like manna from heaven.

Is is real or is it poison?

[Dr_Who]

In my books, when a deal is not signed and the money is not in the bank, it is NOT a deal but a hope.

[shasta]

I always suspected and remain suspicious of Blumberg having shorted this stock big-time. At least I think all the short trades should be investigated.

I also remain convinced PT is not innocent. I read a report saying PT asked for his shares back two days before Opes collapsed. In another report it was also 2 days before Opes collapsed that Blumberg warned ANZ. With PT and Blumberg being buddies it adds up.

Now the promise to all suckers has been rekindled. It's only the promise... so close now... and the masses are jubilent once again. Dreams of fortunes are alive again after so much suffering.

Money has once again moved from the masses to the few more recently so they can flog the millions once again.

In reality, yesterday's ann (containing little of serious substance) was delivered because the masses were screaming for it - like manna from heaven.

Is is real or is it poison?

Heads we win , tails we lose?

If i knew either way i'd buy more or exit all together?

Am holding on until the murky picture gets a bit clearer...

I'm going with gut instinct here, & may have this all wrong :confused:

[spruik]

Wow, big news on the Blumberg V ANZ case.

Blumberg siphoned more than $40 mil from coy associated with Opes to fund his lifestyle, including paying a deposit for a helicopter and buying luxury cars.

Not sure if this affect ADY though but this PT looks like a crook as well with him spruiking and talking on the net. Shouldn't he be focussing on his job and answering all shareholders questions via coy announcement, not just those on TopStocks? Go figure.

If ADY was to announce a big news later on, I bet all his friends, cousins and relative will have an inside tip first and make good coins. He looks like a dodgy operator and want to make some dough on the side as well as getting paid by all you shareholders out there for managing the coy. Any chance he get to make easy cash with inside info, he will do it. A Steve Wizard in the making.

Opes director syphoned $40 million, report

SYDNEY, June 6 AAP

June 06 2008, 06:14AM

The director of failed investment company Opes Prime siphoned more than $40 million to fund his lavish lifestyle, including luxury cars and helicopters, it has been reported.

According to a report by receivers Deloitte, which has been handed to corporate watchdog ASIC, Anthony Blumberg was responsible for authorising payments out of the company, for his own personal benefit.

They include money to finance his lifestyle, buy luxury cars such as a Maseratis and Ferraris, and shift funds offshore, Fairfax newspapers have reported.
But Mr Blumberg has denied any wrongdoing, saying he borrowed the money.

"I didn't syphon anything off," he said.
"I didn't steal anything. I borrowed funds."

Opes Prime was placed into receivership and administration on March 27 after trading "irregularities" were uncovered.

Opes owes more than $1 billion to secured creditors, with ANZ bank owed about $650 million and Merrill Lynch around $350 million.

[Snapper]

PT must sound pretty convincing to some people...large trades going through, price up again on big volume.

[clearasmud]

Lets not mince words.Its a traders counter.
and it stinks to high heaven
i've just finally sold out

[jdg]

Dr Who &jdg
Did you sell before or after the 20&#37; increase in shareprice today?

Cheers

nope, i missed most of the run. still hold a handful, but that's all. i bought in low, but still sold at a small loss - but no great shakes. i just couldn't justify holding. still, it's been a couple of good days for ADY.

-j

[Dr_Who]

This company stinks of high heaven with management manipulating the sp to their own benefit. Talking the sp down then announcing positive news. :mad:

Will never invest anything with these jokers again!

[Snapper]

nope, i missed most of the run. still hold a handful, but that's all. i bought in low, but still sold at a small loss - but no great shakes. i just couldn't justify holding. still, it's been a couple of good days for ADY.

-j

Sometimes I wonder why I'm still in as I'm not a big fan of PT - I think its a combination of inertia and not wanting to take a loss (hope Phaedrus and Mcdunk aren't reading this!) but the last couple of days have cheered me up

[Dazza]

havent posted for awhile

so whose still in this?

or is it just me myself and i?

i have to sell any since going freehold , topped up on the way down instead, holding avg 19-20 cents i tink

ill just let it simmer for a bit more , will see what it eventuates into

either will be a very good house deposit investment or..... just be worth 1 A4 piece of paper :P

[CAM]

I took the "opportunity" to bail out today @ 27c at a small loss for all the reasons stated by others. Maybe long term its the wrong thing to do but I feel more comfortable not being in it. I don't like the way management operate.
Good luck to those still holding.

[stephens.pc]

I took the "opportunity" to bail out today @ 27c at a small loss for all the reasons stated by others. Maybe long term its the wrong thing to do but I feel more comfortable not being in it. I don't like the way management operate.
Good luck to those still holding.

Likewise - theres too many other opportunities out there to have money tied up in ADY

[soulman]

The more we sandbag this coy, the better it does. Maybe we all should criticise this coy everyday instead and let it run. I am not holding any. Big gainer today and might just break the resistance level if it holds above 25 cents.

[leecoker]

I'm definitely in for the long run...theres just too much potential to miss out of this opportunity

[Snapper]

Over 16&#37; of shares issued traded today. What a difference 2 days and 2 announcements can make.

[soulman]

Snapper, just shares being recycled over and over again mate. Like I say before PT and his crew of friends and family are now deciding what to do tonight with the $1.5 mil profits they made on the last two days announcement. I reckon a lobster dinner at one of the most expensive restaurant in town.

Off course, you don't mind either. ADY shareholders also enjoy a nice champagne the last 2 days. Although, you didn't buy at 17 and sell at 25 with a certainty of 2 good price sensitive announcement and you knew they were coming as well and only holding your capital at risk for 2 trading days.

Good luck to holders.