ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[Snapper]

Surely directors have to disclose their or associated trades..or am I just being naive?

[shasta]

Surely directors have to disclose their or associated trades..or am I just being naive?

Not unless they have direct/indirect control of at least 5% of the shares on issue, then a SSH is required.

However, there are certain periods where "insiders" cannot buy shares.

ADY will have a corporate governance policy on such things as Directors/Management/Staff etc trading ADY shares...

Oh dear god, i had to go & look (this is ALL it is :mad:)

Corporate Governance

The Board of Admiralty Resources NL endorses good corporate governance practices and oversees an organisation-wide commitment to high standards of legislative compliance and financial and ethical behaviour.

The Directors’ overriding objective is to increase shareholder value within an appropriate framework that protects the rights and enhances the interests of all shareholders and ensures the Company is properly managed.

[Snapper]

You could read that any way you like, couldn't you?

[Ttops]

havent posted for awhile

so whose still in this?

or is it just me myself and i?

i have to sell any since going freehold , topped up on the way down instead, holding avg 19-20 cents i tink

ill just let it simmer for a bit more , will see what it eventuates into

either will be a very good house deposit investment or..... just be worth 1 A4 piece of paper :P

Topped up at several times quite recently as well Dazza and haven't sold any. I have accepted a longer time frame of 12-18 months to really benefit from holding. Too many short term speculators have been burned and have given ADY heaps of ire to vent their anger. Happy holding to the faithful. ;)

[Ttops]

Shasta Are you still in? You have been more negative on this stock than ever lately. I reread some of the comments over the last 100 odd pages ;) and I can't help thinking some of you have lost sight of the end goal while concentrating on PT and management. I have always believed in the Chemistry of Li salts was not rocket science.The geologists/chemists at least know their stuff. The ISO 9000 seems to justify that.

What do the techies think of the charts now? OBV looking good. The fundamentals are still the same, well actually they seem slightly better imho given the price of oil and the boost it will give to development of electric cars,but the risk is steadily reducing albeit at a pace that is disappontingly slow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of past believers returning to the fold while cursing that they ever doubted. 16.5c does seem incredibly cheap.:D Having doubled my holding recently :D Reckon that will be the bottom given the testing that recent events have put it through.

[Ttops]

Shasta Are you still in? You have been more negative on this stock than ever lately. I reread some of the comments over the last 100 odd pages ;) and I can't help thinking some of you have lost sight of the end goal while concentrating on PT and management. I have always believed in the Chemistry of Li salts was not rocket science.The geologists/chemists at least know their stuff. The ISO 9000 seems to justify that.

What do the techies think of the charts now? OBV looking good. The fundamentals are still the same, well actually they seem slightly better imho given the price of oil and the boost it will give to development of electric cars,but the risk is steadily reducing albeit at a pace that is disappontingly slow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of past believers returning to the fold while cursing that they ever doubted. 16.5c does seem incredibly cheap.:D Having doubled my holding recently :D Reckon that will be the bottom given the testing that recent events have put it through. Now to sit back and wait for more good news in the next few months.

[spruik]

Lets not mince words.Its a traders counter.
and it stinks to high heaven
i've just finally sold out

I say... they are up to the same old tricks. No anns until it almost breaks everybody's back (sorry.. bank), then:

Now, a decent company would release the IO bit and the LI bit in one announcement (it still is the same company), after trading so all holders (including those with a daytime job) get to know about it and not only those with a screen in front of their faces all day long.

No, not PT and his crew.

IO report during trading, worse still, let's make it after 12noon - a little later than usual. Now let's see the response (PT keenly monitoring the market and T$).

After lunch, more traders come back to their screens - WOW, let's buy.

End of the day it looks good.

Next day... nobody expecting another ann so soon. Whoopy, now for the LI! Again, a little later still than the day before. (PT monitoring the market and T$). Somebody putting a phony buy order for 10m @ .001 to make the buy depth look even better (not everybody scrolls down the list).

More promises and dangling carrots, will they let us bite? You never know.

We did see the millions being bought earlier, I suspect they knew more than us. It's about maximising SP right now, just like the race to 0.67. Same tactics.

You're not wrong, clearasmud, it STINKS.

I still hold some.

[shasta]

Shasta Are you still in? You have been more negative on this stock than ever lately. I reread some of the comments over the last 100 odd pages ;) and I can't help thinking some of you have lost sight of the end goal while concentrating on PT and management. I have always believed in the Chemistry of Li salts was not rocket science.The geologists/chemists at least know their stuff. The ISO 9000 seems to justify that.

What do the techies think of the charts now? OBV looking good. The fundamentals are still the same, well actually they seem slightly better imho given the price of oil and the boost it will give to development of electric cars,but the risk is steadily reducing albeit at a pace that is disappontingly slow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of past believers returning to the fold while cursing that they ever doubted. 16.5c does seem incredibly cheap.:D Having doubled my holding recently :D Reckon that will be the bottom given the testing that recent events have put it through. Now to sit back and wait for more good news in the next few months.

Yup i'm still in & have no plans to change that at present.

After the unwarranted personal attacks, i stopped posting anything that could be contrived as "ramping" to appease those PC non contributors!

I have stated ADY is a HOLD for me, in the short term, ie wait & see

There have been a few things (ok, a bit more than a few things) that have gone on in recent time that i do not agree with.

Not even the downrampers/dissaffected "sold at a loss" types can deny the fact we have a very large "highly sought after" Lithium resource.

But, we have serious cashflow problems, in part because ADY & RLL are trying to expand capacity to benefit from the current high prices, before they have really got the projects off the ground & profitable.

Sentiment on this stock & its management is not great, ok we've had 2 anns in 2 days & the market likes the progress, but some doubts remain as to whether we have the right people "leading" the company or not.

Come back in 2 years time & we could be talking about "loading up" when the SP was < 20c & laughing, & i hope so...

Despite all my previous contact with Phillip Thomas, i'm now of the opinion he's not the person we need to lead Rincon Lithium into production & beyond.

Thats not a big slight on him either, we see it all the time, a CEO transforms a company from exploration to near term producer, & then leaves with someone else taking the reigns (classic example is NZO).

The quarter starting 1 July - 30 September 2008 is going to make or break ADY IMO. If they can't get the cashflow situation sorted by then we are in serious trouble!

[Ttops]

Yup i'm still in & have no plans to change that at present.

After the unwarranted personal attacks, i stopped posting anything that could be contrived as "ramping" to appease those PC non contributors!

I have stated ADY is a HOLD for me, in the short term, ie wait & see

There have been a few things (ok, a bit more than a few things) that have gone on in recent time that i do not agree with.

Not even the downrampers/dissaffected "sold at a loss" types can deny the fact we have a very large "highly sought after" Lithium resource.

But, we have serious cashflow problems, in part because ADY & RLL are trying to expand capacity to benefit from the current high prices, before they have really got the projects off the ground & profitable.

Sentiment on this stock & its management is not great, ok we've had 2 anns in 2 days & the market likes the progress, but some doubts remain as to whether we have the right people "leading" the company or not.

Come back in 2 years time & we could be talking about "loading up" when the SP was < 20c & laughing, & i hope so...

Despite all my previous contact with Phillip Thomas, i'm now of the opinion he's not the person we need to lead Rincon Lithium into production & beyond.

Thats not a big slight on him either, we see it all the time, a CEO transforms a company from exploration to near term producer, & then leaves with someone else taking the reigns (classic example is NZO).

The quarter starting 1 July - 30 September 2008 is going to make or break ADY IMO. If they can't get the cashflow situation sorted by then we are in serious trouble!
Thanks shasta for the comments. I 've been feeling for some time that the lack of information was designed to depress the price. Its obvious that some losses had to be made up and time was needed to buy back some shares. Releasing good news early would make poor sense in that case wouldn't it. I've been reading TS and HC lately as ST had dried up. They seem to be mainly downrampers spending all day castigating a share they still hold or just dumped at the bottom! ;)

[Dr_Who]

Is not the lack of information, but the fact that he and some of his immediate family on internet sites talking down the sp followed by a positive announce that makes this whole thing stinks to high heaven.

When PT leaves this company, I will look at buying some shares. Till then, good luck to all the holders.

[shasta]

Is not the lack of information, but the fact that he and some of his immediate family on internet sites talking down the sp followed by a positive announce that makes this whole thing stinks to high heaven.

When PT leaves this company, I will look at buying some shares. Till then, good luck to all the holders.

Dr Who

I can't help but think you are being a tad narrow minded here.

PT has stuffed up big time, but the rest of ADY are doing a good job.

It will take a bit of time to sort the various issues they face...

So if you are after a quick "multibagger" ADY will not do that in the short term. (other than the consolidation of course)

If you buy & hold for at least 12 months the SP & market cap will be much higher than at present.

I don't blame you for selling, just have you done so for the right reasons?

I've thought about dumping my ADY holding many times, but keep thinking why did i buy into this, & fundamentally ADY has a very large resource!

[dicey]

ADY added to S&P/ASX 300 index

Index funds will now be looking for an entry point

[Snapper]

Looks like they've just entered - up anther 13%. An announcement a day keeps the blues away!

[foxysfolkfaced23]

yeah three good days in a row, and that will do me - i sold out at 28.5 today but will still keep one eye on these for the inevitable pullback.

[spruik]

ADY was included in the ASX 300 last March.

So much commotion, yet they actually delivered very little - no contracts signed just yet. They must be running out of anns of the shelf... :)

[Ttops]

ADY added to S&P/ASX 300 index

Index funds will now be looking for an entry point

I thought they joined on 20/3/2008 I was looking at the list in the weekend. Is this old news or not?:confused:
CompanyTickerCompanyTickerDateAdditionsDeletionsAd miralty Resources NLADYARB Corporation LimitedARP20/03/2008 17:00Service Stream

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/031008_ASX-Rebal.pdf

[Snapper]

It would be interesting to know how many shares the index funds have to buy. I don't think they have to buy them all at once - there is usually a lead-in time. A lot of active funds also hover around the indices so they might create a bit of buying pressure too.

[Ttops]

ADY was included in the ASX 300 last March.

So much commotion, yet they actually delivered very little - no contracts signed just yet. They must be running out of anns of the shelf... :)

Have to agree with you for once;)

[Ttops]

Have to agree with you for once;)
Does seem odd that this should be released now. Perhaps the real news is that they were about to drop off again having fallen so far but now feel confident in releasing it. All the instos already know right so wouldn't be buying. lol!

[Snapper]

When/if the demerger goes ahead will that mean that they will fall off the index anyway? As I suggested earlier, index funds often have a lead-in time to accumulate - it might just be that they started accumulating on Friday and the announcement was a reminder to the general market - just speculation.

[spruik]

Does seem odd that this should be released now. Perhaps the real news is that they were about to drop off again having fallen so far but now feel confident in releasing it. All the instos already know right so wouldn't be buying. lol!

Again, ADY should have clarified the matter from the outset rather than creating new questions.

Not surprised really, as the traders here are being looked after, certainly not the long term "investors" who doesn't want to spend their lives at the screen all day every day waiting for surprises from PT.

Most relatively small holders must be suffering from some anxiety... anyway it's quite a circus and moving up.

[Ttops]

When/if the demerger goes ahead will that mean that they will fall off the index anyway? As I suggested earlier, index funds often have a lead-in time to accumulate - it might just be that they started accumulating on Friday and the announcement was a reminder to the general market - just speculation.
If you are right re lead time it is probably three months since the announcement originally on 10 march ,it does suggest they have left it a bit late lol and we may see this really rocket for a while as the instos accumulate. Would be nice to know the facts. anyone help?:confused:

[doon]

Hmm, PT's ASX300 announcement is dated 11 June. Australia is so far ahead of us with news we haven't a hope trading this stock. Either that or they are way behind. I had it noted on 7th March and it was to take effect from 20th March.

[WASL]

Hi All,

I remain a long suffering holder showing a substantial loss at the moment, so it is pleasing to see some upwards movement in the price.
Very interesting piece (quite long) in Friday's Financial Review re Opes, the Directors, ADY connections etc - fills in a lot of gaps in thins increasingly sordid story.
QUESTION. Can anyone fill be in on the status of the proposed share consolidation and split???

Regards and
good luck as always

WASL

[shasta]

Hi All,

I remain a long suffering holder showing a substantial loss at the moment, so it is pleasing to see some upwards movement in the price.
Very interesting piece (quite long) in Friday's Financial Review re Opes, the Directors, ADY connections etc - fills in a lot of gaps in thins increasingly sordid story.
QUESTION. Can anyone fill be in on the status of the proposed share consolidation and split???

Regards and
good luck as always

WASL

The demerger details, consolidation & RLL listing (subject to EGM approval) are all meant to happen during the next quarter (1 July - 30 Sept 08).

The ATO tax ruling seems to be holding things back at present.

[spruik]

That's if they don't run out of money... an exploded convertible note reported Friday raising more money (more dilution)... ADY lives from month to month.

Every month the promise is kept alive, every month more money needed.

[shasta]

That's if they don't run out of money... an exploded convertible note reported Friday raising more money (more dilution)... ADY lives from month to month.

Every month the promise is kept alive, every month more money needed.

Whilst ADY continues to bore the pants off us all, i found another Lithium company right next door to Rincon Lithium, have a look at ORE

Perhaps a chance to get into another Lithium company at the ground floor?

Oh & for Dr Leon Pretorius fans, he's onboard too :D

[Serpie]

Oh & for Dr Leon Pretorius fans, he's onboard too :D

That got my interest Shasta. Thanks for the tip. Will have a look.

[shasta]

That got my interest Shasta. Thanks for the tip. Will have a look.

Big ann out today & not a single response?

Spruik will be delighted to learn PT is back in charge :D

Well the market thinks so, nearly 60m shares traded & up 2c to 28c.

Or is this the leaky ship Admiralty & we are due some good news :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=200382

PS, Robert Clarke with a face only a mother could love :eek:

[shasta]

Big ann out today & not a single response?

Spruik will be delighted to learn PT is back in charge :D

Well the market thinks so, nearly 60m shares traded & up 2c to 28c.

Or is this the leaky ship Admiralty & we are due some good news :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=200382

PS, Robert Clarke with a face only a mother could love :eek:

Rio Tinto have today announced there 2008 Iron Ore price settlement with the Chinese...

Interesting for ADY holders re potential for our IO when its up & running?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RIO&E=ASX&N=300531

[jdg]

i'm out of this totally now, sold the last of my shares yesterday and ended up somewhere close to even (for which i feel somewhat lucky). i just can't justify even a small holding. great potential, but management scare the hell out of me. last time i off loaded, the price spiked - i hope that happens again for the sake of current holders. all the best,

-j

[georgeofthejungle]

Latest answers from PT over on the TopStocks Forum...

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Seems to raise more questions that it answers...still waiting for a "concrete" announcement on shipments, IO production rates, demerger, ISO accreditation...the list goes on.

Suffered a big drop after an early rise when the market had a "up" day. Maybe others thought that the above document raised a few issues?

[shasta]

Latest answers from PT over on the TopStocks Forum...

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf

Seems to raise more questions that it answers...still waiting for a "concrete" announcement on shipments, IO production rates, demerger, ISO accreditation...the list goes on.

Suffered a big drop after an early rise when the market had a "up" day. Maybe others thought that the above document raised a few issues?

I wish the Board would muzzle/censor PT :mad:

[FrankEd]

If there was a drop today and an ann. due "by the end of the month", does anyone get suspicious that maybe the JORC compliant estimate doesn't look that great? Maybe someone knows something we don't?

But i guess there has to be buyers for all the sellers though!

[shasta]

If there was a drop today and an ann. due "by the end of the month", does anyone get suspicious that maybe the JORC compliant estimate doesn't look that great? Maybe someone knows something we don't?

But i guess there has to be buyers for all the sellers though!

I'm picking it's a few off Topstocks panic selling as the cashflow situation hasn't been addressed as yet.

Re JORC anns, with the 9 (?) Chilean Iron Ore Mines we only have 2 mines with JORC resources for 89MT, so any further anns will be to increase that.

We really do need confirmation of the forward contracts & upfront cashflow to stem the SP decline.

Get the cashflow sorted & we can ramp up production & revenue.

It's just the nature of the beast & ADY is trying to obtain credit in the worst possible "credit crunch" environment.

12 months ago we would have had every bank knocking on the door :(

[steve fleming]

Zinc the next Lithium?

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6915858.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined

The power of zinc: Startup CEO talks zinc-based fuel cells http://www.platts.com/images/pixel_transparent.gif Washington (Platts)--26Jun2008 Robust supply and softer demand has transformed zinc from a hot to a
lukewarm commodity, but new technology that would make zinc the power running
cell phones and laptops -- and a significant distance down the road -- a fuel
source in hybrid cars, could help launch the base metal's comeback.

Power Air Corp., based in Livermore, California, announced this week it
had entered into a technology-sharing deal with Hawthorne, New Jersey-based
eVionyx to make zinc-based battery units called Powerpacks, that will give
extended-run capability to increasingly sophisticated -- and power-hungry --
mobile electronic devices like Blackberrys, MP3 players, and global
positioning systems.

"People don't know that zinc is a potential energy source," Power Air
President and CEO Donald Ceci, told Platts. "Eventually, if the world was
running on zinc, you'd have sustainable fuel." But, he added, "There's a lot
of development work to be done."

The technology is known as the zinc-air fuel cell, which gets its name
from the underlying chemical reaction that occurs when zinc pellets are mixed
with oxygen from the air, causing zinc oxidation. Lithium is the material
currently used in the batteries powering mobile electronic devices, but
deposits of the commodity are more scattered and scarce than zinc, and
increasingly pricey in the face of insatiable demand for the next big thing in
electronics, Ceci said.

"There's not that much lithium; you get it from salt lakes on the tops of
mountains in Chile and China." While those are not the only regions where the
material is found, he said, "There's certainly not enough to run the world's
hybrid electric vehicles." What's more, Ceci added, "Lithium is getting more
and more expensive because all the portable devices are running on lithium. So
zinc is developing into the next-generation alternative to lithium. We're
pioneering that to an extent."

Although the current crop of hybrid vehicles have fuel cells based on
lithium or hydrogen, the zinc-air fuel cell is safer and better for the
environment, he said. "The nice thing about zinc is, it's nonflammable and
nonexplosive and you end up with zinc oxide as a byproduct, which is totally
recyclable. You don't burn anything up into the atmosphere [so] there's no
emissions." Also, "of all the stable elements, zinc has the highest energy
density, so it is a very good power source," Ceci said.

These qualities could raise the base metal's profile as a fuel source and
drive up its price on the order of metallurgic coal -- the coal used to make
steel -- the price of which has soared on rocketing steel demand from China.
"Broadly speaking, I think this is a trend that going to grow not only in
North America and Europe, but around the world," Bart Melek, a commodities
analyst with BMO Capital Markets, told Platts. "Certainly with oil at
$135-138/barrel, we're going have to use other ways [to get power]."

--Laura Gilcrest, laura_gilcrest@platts.com

[shasta]

Zinc the next Lithium?

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6915858.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined

The power of zinc: Startup CEO talks zinc-based fuel cells http://www.platts.com/images/pixel_transparent.gif Washington (Platts)--26Jun2008 Robust supply and softer demand has transformed zinc from a hot to a
lukewarm commodity, but new technology that would make zinc the power running
cell phones and laptops -- and a significant distance down the road -- a fuel
source in hybrid cars, could help launch the base metal's comeback.

Power Air Corp., based in Livermore, California, announced this week it
had entered into a technology-sharing deal with Hawthorne, New Jersey-based
eVionyx to make zinc-based battery units called Powerpacks, that will give
extended-run capability to increasingly sophisticated -- and power-hungry --
mobile electronic devices like Blackberrys, MP3 players, and global
positioning systems.

"People don't know that zinc is a potential energy source," Power Air
President and CEO Donald Ceci, told Platts. "Eventually, if the world was
running on zinc, you'd have sustainable fuel." But, he added, "There's a lot
of development work to be done."

The technology is known as the zinc-air fuel cell, which gets its name
from the underlying chemical reaction that occurs when zinc pellets are mixed
with oxygen from the air, causing zinc oxidation. Lithium is the material
currently used in the batteries powering mobile electronic devices, but
deposits of the commodity are more scattered and scarce than zinc, and
increasingly pricey in the face of insatiable demand for the next big thing in
electronics, Ceci said.

"There's not that much lithium; you get it from salt lakes on the tops of
mountains in Chile and China." While those are not the only regions where the
material is found, he said, "There's certainly not enough to run the world's
hybrid electric vehicles." What's more, Ceci added, "Lithium is getting more
and more expensive because all the portable devices are running on lithium. So
zinc is developing into the next-generation alternative to lithium. We're
pioneering that to an extent."

Although the current crop of hybrid vehicles have fuel cells based on
lithium or hydrogen, the zinc-air fuel cell is safer and better for the
environment, he said. "The nice thing about zinc is, it's nonflammable and
nonexplosive and you end up with zinc oxide as a byproduct, which is totally
recyclable. You don't burn anything up into the atmosphere [so] there's no
emissions." Also, "of all the stable elements, zinc has the highest energy
density, so it is a very good power source," Ceci said.

These qualities could raise the base metal's profile as a fuel source and
drive up its price on the order of metallurgic coal -- the coal used to make
steel -- the price of which has soared on rocketing steel demand from China.
"Broadly speaking, I think this is a trend that going to grow not only in
North America and Europe, but around the world," Bart Melek, a commodities
analyst with BMO Capital Markets, told Platts. "Certainly with oil at
$135-138/barrel, we're going have to use other ways [to get power]."

--Laura Gilcrest, laura_gilcrest@platts.com

Wow thats food for thought, from Nickel - Lithium - Zinc batteries?

Perhaps the likes of PEM does have a future?

ADY have some Zinc at Bulman don't they, perhaps they are covering there bases?

[shasta]

Wow thats food for thought, from Nickel - Lithium - Zinc batteries?

Perhaps the likes of PEM does have a future?

ADY have some Zinc at Bulman don't they, perhaps they are covering there bases?

Some interesting research on Rincon Lithium :confused:

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/c45147dee729311ef5b5c3003946c48f.pdf

[SCHUMACHER]

Hey Shasta,.... couldnt resist this time.....after the sub prime mortgage fiasco....i looked at ADY but did nothing....then i watched it shoot to 30c afterwards....but on friday i decided to buy back in at 19.5c.....i think and hope PT and the gang can get it right from here on....lots to look forward to with Phill in China to finalise the deal.....glad to be back in after a very long absence....i think what got me back in was the S & P asx 300 entry....cheers Schumacher~~~

[shasta]

Hey Shasta,.... couldnt resist this time.....after the sub prime mortgage fiasco....i looked at ADY but did nothing....then i watched it shoot to 30c afterwards....but on friday i decided to buy back in at 19.5c.....i think and hope PT and the gang can get it right from here on....lots to look forward to with Phill in China to finalise the deal.....glad to be back in after a very long absence....i think what got me back in was the S & P asx 300 entry....cheers Schumacher~~~

Great timing, we are meant to get another JORC IO upgrade this week ;)

[SCHUMACHER]

Shasta,...hows windy wellington...lol)

Im looking at ADY,s Rincon project at the moment and the potential figures stack up unbeliveably well....read below....if this is so ADY at 20c is a laughable joke...!!


Valuation
How to value an entity so formative in a product category so obscure? Comparisons to SQM are worthless as it has more products in its mix and takes some of its potassium output to more refined and specialized levels. Comparisons to FMC are muddied by the wide array of products it produces beyond
the lithium, or even chemical, space. To give an idea of valuations, FMC currently has a market capitalization of $5.83bn and a trailing twelve months P/E of 33X. SQM is a more stunning US$13.7bn market cap and a sky-high 67X trailing twelve months P/E.

The company makes an interesting case. The total lithium reserve is shown in the JORC report at a midpoint of 1.4mn tonnes. The company states that is 400 years (!) worth of supplies at its expected 17,000 tpa production goal. With the conversion ratio from lithium to lithium carbonate being 5.32, this implies a reserve of 7.46 million tonnes of lithium carbonate at US$6,000 per tonne (using the 2006 price
quoted by Industrial Minerals) with a historical value of US$44.7billion. The conversion ratio to Lithium Chloride from lithium metal is 6.12 and for Lithium Hydroxide it is 1.49 times. That is certainly a stunning number, we would certainly be satisfied with even a fraction of that valuation after ADY’s stock price has spent so long on a downtrend.

There are some unknowns that have to be put into the mix. The investment required for the full Rincon operation is estimated at around $110mn. It’s not clear how the market will value Rincon post-deal and yet there will need to be a financing in the mix. Thus the dilution of the post-consolidation entity is a big unknown.
Operating costs are slightly easier to guess at this time, as the infrastructure needs of Rincon are not subject to the same rampant inflation as the rest of the mining industry. Rincon is a low energy user in its processes so not as subject to the steep inflation taking place in that sector.
Even the machinery needs for an evaporative process are different. There are no ball mills, no giant trucks, none of the types of equipment that involves massive lead times in ordering.
Using what we know, proposed lithium output might be 17,000 tpa and potash of 40,000 tpa, we can scratch together some broad revenue numbers. For the sake of argument we shall use the commodity prices of the recent past i.e. lithium carbonate at $6,500 and potash around $600 per tonne.

This would imply annual income of at least US$135mn (that is without factoring in the higher prices achievable for lithium chloride and lithium hydroxide, the possibility of higher potash output than the number we use, possibly by 25%-30%, or the revenues that might come from ramping up the sodium sulphate sales to third parties). There is also a possibility that boric acid and borates could be produced with some extra plant investment, though we shall leave this to the side at this time.
If operating costs are US$40mn per annum, it is clear that the operating profits for Rincon could be in excess of US$80mn per annum. Financing costs could be between $5-$10mn p.a.. The company would benefit from tax breaks in its early years of production.
We could say that we feel that Rincon, with a $50mn capital raise (with $50mn debt financing) would be worth $500mn one year into production. Is that too much to expect? That would represent around 4% of the value of SQM at this time. Indeed if one placed a 20X multiple on Rincon (compared to the 65X of SQM), then valuations of over $1bn could be conceivable. However, when one considers the current valuation of ADY and arbitrarily splits it in half to represent the demerged parts then even low end valuations for Rincon once in production would still represent multiples of the valuation on the day of
demerger, presuming the stock price stays around current levels until that event.

Pricing on demerger day!!!!!!!
We suspect that most of the current players in ADY are there for the iron ore. Producing assets usually trump exploration assets and iron ore is enormously sexy at this time. However, if we presume that investors value each “asset bundle” equally and that the price is around 30 cts pre-demerger then the post-deal value of 15cts for each share will be grossed up by the stock consolidation on the 1:3.47215
basis.

This gives us a value of 52 cts once the dust clears. Different dynamics will come to bear on each “half” from that date.

Conclusion!!
The divorce of Rincon from Admiralty is an amicable one and in the best interests of both parties. Investors do not seem to have taken a negative slant towards the deal either, from what we have discerned. The woes of Admiralty’s share price seem to have their roots in the global malaise, poor marketing by the company and some negative backwash from the tangential Opes Prime connection.

Looking beyond the immediate travails, we see Rincon as a company not literally “sitting on a goldmine” but certainly positioned on the quasi-liquid equivalent. Both of the products it will produce as it main outputs are in strong demand with good long-term fundamentals and low production costs.
In the case of lithium the market place is undersupplied with excessive concentration in a few hands. Rincon will break into that little club. Additionally, while accusations fly in so many commodity markets these days about manipulation, the market for lithium is very much one where real buyers and real sellers sit down and negotiate deals for real prices. Potash is a potential side bonanza with international recognition driving stocks like POT into the stratosphere without a fantasy factor driving valuations.

Rincon has remained like a wallflower hidden under the skirts of Admiralty’s Santa Barbara asset which, worthy as it is, represents a mere sideshow compared to Rincon’s potential.
At this stage, investors should position in Admiralty with a view to the upcoming demerger. Both components look good to us, but eventually investors can divest their Admiralty and end up with their Rincon holdings for what we suspect will be almost a gift. For us, Rincon is the more unique asset.

If Rincon, post-demerger/consolidation is valued at AUD 52 cts (market cap of AUD$141mn), then our 12-month target would be AUD$1.50 and our 24 month target would be over AUD$2.50.
We feel that ADY is a Strong Buy at this juncture.

Why wouldnt you get excited about this....cheers SCHU

[shasta]

Shasta,...hows windy wellington...lol)

Im looking at ADY,s Rincon project at the moment and the potential figures stack up unbeliveably well....read below....if this is so ADY at 20c is a laughable joke...!!


Valuation
How to value an entity so formative in a product category so obscure? Comparisons to SQM are worthless as it has more products in its mix and takes some of its potassium output to more refined and specialized levels. Comparisons to FMC are muddied by the wide array of products it produces beyond
the lithium, or even chemical, space. To give an idea of valuations, FMC currently has a market capitalization of $5.83bn and a trailing twelve months P/E of 33X. SQM is a more stunning US$13.7bn market cap and a sky-high 67X trailing twelve months P/E.

The company makes an interesting case. The total lithium reserve is shown in the JORC report at a midpoint of 1.4mn tonnes. The company states that is 400 years (!) worth of supplies at its expected 17,000 tpa production goal. With the conversion ratio from lithium to lithium carbonate being 5.32, this implies a reserve of 7.46 million tonnes of lithium carbonate at US$6,000 per tonne (using the 2006 price
quoted by Industrial Minerals) with a historical value of US$44.7billion. The conversion ratio to Lithium Chloride from lithium metal is 6.12 and for Lithium Hydroxide it is 1.49 times. That is certainly a stunning number, we would certainly be satisfied with even a fraction of that valuation after ADY’s stock price has spent so long on a downtrend.

There are some unknowns that have to be put into the mix. The investment required for the full Rincon operation is estimated at around $110mn. It’s not clear how the market will value Rincon post-deal and yet there will need to be a financing in the mix. Thus the dilution of the post-consolidation entity is a big unknown.
Operating costs are slightly easier to guess at this time, as the infrastructure needs of Rincon are not subject to the same rampant inflation as the rest of the mining industry. Rincon is a low energy user in its processes so not as subject to the steep inflation taking place in that sector.
Even the machinery needs for an evaporative process are different. There are no ball mills, no giant trucks, none of the types of equipment that involves massive lead times in ordering.
Using what we know, proposed lithium output might be 17,000 tpa and potash of 40,000 tpa, we can scratch together some broad revenue numbers. For the sake of argument we shall use the commodity prices of the recent past i.e. lithium carbonate at $6,500 and potash around $600 per tonne.

This would imply annual income of at least US$135mn (that is without factoring in the higher prices achievable for lithium chloride and lithium hydroxide, the possibility of higher potash output than the number we use, possibly by 25%-30%, or the revenues that might come from ramping up the sodium sulphate sales to third parties). There is also a possibility that boric acid and borates could be produced with some extra plant investment, though we shall leave this to the side at this time.
If operating costs are US$40mn per annum, it is clear that the operating profits for Rincon could be in excess of US$80mn per annum. Financing costs could be between $5-$10mn p.a.. The company would benefit from tax breaks in its early years of production.
We could say that we feel that Rincon, with a $50mn capital raise (with $50mn debt financing) would be worth $500mn one year into production. Is that too much to expect? That would represent around 4% of the value of SQM at this time. Indeed if one placed a 20X multiple on Rincon (compared to the 65X of SQM), then valuations of over $1bn could be conceivable. However, when one considers the current valuation of ADY and arbitrarily splits it in half to represent the demerged parts then even low end valuations for Rincon once in production would still represent multiples of the valuation on the day of
demerger, presuming the stock price stays around current levels until that event.

Pricing on demerger day!!!!!!!
We suspect that most of the current players in ADY are there for the iron ore. Producing assets usually trump exploration assets and iron ore is enormously sexy at this time. However, if we presume that investors value each “asset bundle” equally and that the price is around 30 cts pre-demerger then the post-deal value of 15cts for each share will be grossed up by the stock consolidation on the 1:3.47215
basis.

This gives us a value of 52 cts once the dust clears. Different dynamics will come to bear on each “half” from that date.

Conclusion!!
The divorce of Rincon from Admiralty is an amicable one and in the best interests of both parties. Investors do not seem to have taken a negative slant towards the deal either, from what we have discerned. The woes of Admiralty’s share price seem to have their roots in the global malaise, poor marketing by the company and some negative backwash from the tangential Opes Prime connection.

Looking beyond the immediate travails, we see Rincon as a company not literally “sitting on a goldmine” but certainly positioned on the quasi-liquid equivalent. Both of the products it will produce as it main outputs are in strong demand with good long-term fundamentals and low production costs.
In the case of lithium the market place is undersupplied with excessive concentration in a few hands. Rincon will break into that little club. Additionally, while accusations fly in so many commodity markets these days about manipulation, the market for lithium is very much one where real buyers and real sellers sit down and negotiate deals for real prices. Potash is a potential side bonanza with international recognition driving stocks like POT into the stratosphere without a fantasy factor driving valuations.

Rincon has remained like a wallflower hidden under the skirts of Admiralty’s Santa Barbara asset which, worthy as it is, represents a mere sideshow compared to Rincon’s potential.
At this stage, investors should position in Admiralty with a view to the upcoming demerger. Both components look good to us, but eventually investors can divest their Admiralty and end up with their Rincon holdings for what we suspect will be almost a gift. For us, Rincon is the more unique asset.

If Rincon, post-demerger/consolidation is valued at AUD 52 cts (market cap of AUD$141mn), then our 12-month target would be AUD$1.50 and our 24 month target would be over AUD$2.50.
We feel that ADY is a Strong Buy at this juncture.

Why wouldnt you get excited about this....cheers SCHU

Despite the current state of the markets & all the "baggage" ADY has with it, the huge Lithium/Potash resource hasn't gone anywhere :confused:

I couldn't care less about the Iron Ore business...

As i've said all along i'm in this for the demerger & Rincon shares ;)

BTW, Wellington is freezing cold & windy as, what else would you expect!

[Ttops]

Interesting video on new Li battery technology.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJrNCjVS0gk&feature=related

[FrankEd]

Promising announcement today, and there's more to come re: demerger, other sites etc...:)

[shasta]

Promising announcement today, and there's more to come re: demerger, other sites etc...:)

ADY update out...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201245

Highlights:

* Shougang 10 year sales contract & $US40m "letter of credit", due for signing late July

* Progress being made re the Demerger, incl US investors

* Next ship re WISCO contract due 24 July

* More news to come re unsecured loan repayments

* ADY sourcing finance to buyout the remaining 40% of CMSB they don't own

* Lithium ISO accreditation progessing, with a new Warehouse/Lab to be built

* Lithium tender & forward sales contracts can now be issued

* The quarterly should expand on the above items

* Rincon Lithium have lodged a provisional patent for the Lithium production process, this may lead to licensing fees for ADY/RLL.

Things are progressing alot slower than the market would like, but i take some positives out of this ann going forward.

Still issues surrounding the lack of cashflow/credit facilities available.

Meanwhile ADY is bouncing around 16.5 - 18c

[shasta]

ADY update out...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201245

Highlights:

* Shougang 10 year sales contract & $US40m "letter of credit", due for signing late July

* Progress being made re the Demerger, incl US investors

* Next ship re WISCO contract due 24 July

* More news to come re unsecured loan repayments

* ADY sourcing finance to buyout the remaining 40% of CMSB they don't own

* Lithium ISO accreditation progessing, with a new Warehouse/Lab to be built

* Lithium tender & forward sales contracts can now be issued

* The quarterly should expand on the above items

* Rincon Lithium have lodged a provisional patent for the Lithium production process, this may lead to licensing fees for ADY/RLL.

Things are progressing alot slower than the market would like, but i take some positives out of this ann going forward.

Still issues surrounding the lack of cashflow/credit facilities available.

Meanwhile ADY is bouncing around 16.5 - 18c

New investor presentation out, a good read for anyone contemplating buying into ADY pre demerger...:)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201284

[spruik]

Watched 4 corners program on FirePower tonight. Reminds me of ADY, always promising, always delaying, never delivering.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2306960.htm

Now we have another deadline - for the Shougang contract to be signed - 10 days more to go!

Who's holding their breath? Most people don't believe anything anymore.

[shasta]

Watched 4 corners program on FirePower tonight. Reminds me of ADY, always promising, always delaying, never delivering.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2306960.htm

Now we have another deadline - for the Shougang contract to be signed - 10 days more to go!

Who's holding their breath? Most people don't believe anything anymore.

I'm holding my grains of salt Spruik...

Hard to believe ANYTHING PT says at the moment!

PS, Notice on page 18, ADY now forecasting annual Lithium production of 34,000T, why don't they get it up & running before making such statements? (Previous "forecasts" were 17,000T Lithium Carbonate p.a)

[Halebop]

The share price is looking locked in a tighter trading range just now. I suspect they've lost the ability to massage the market's response via announcements. Perhaps it's time to shut up and get something tangible done?

[spruik]

The share price is looking locked in a tighter trading range just now. I suspect they've lost the ability to massage the market's response via announcements. Perhaps it's time to shut up and get something tangible done?

Indeed. And if no Shougang signatures on the dotted line by July 31 (or at the very least a firm date announced), the whole thing may collapse.

[Dr_Who]

Dont trust management in ADY. These jokers manipulate the sp for their own pockets. That's why I sold out of ADY and never to invest back again as long as these jokers are running the show.

[drillfix]

Watched 4 corners program on FirePower tonight. Reminds me of ADY, always promising, always delaying, never delivering.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2306960.htm


Spruik,

That link reminds me of alot of stocks out there now when I come to think about it~!

[Ttops]

This is so depressing ie.reading your negative sentiment atm.You guys are showing symptoms that indicate you are bipolar or suffering from SAD. We should all be prescribed a massive dose of Li lol
Look on the positive side
:):):D:D:D:):):):D:D:D:D:):):):):D:D:D:D

[shasta]

[quote=Treetops;213960]This is so depressing ie.reading your negative sentiment atm.You guys are showing symptoms that indicate you are bipolar or suffering from SAD. We should all be prescribed a massive dose of Li lol
Look on the positive side
:):):D:D:):):D:D:):)/quote]

Im still in a holding pattern up to the demerger (short-term), however we will now have around 150m shares post split now, & our original 1:3.4 ratio is now 1:7.55 :confused:

I hope the demerger details cause a big enough spike for us all to bail :D

I can see what's likely to occur & i dont like it...:mad:

Shougang & WISCO get "cheap" placements & the consolidation process gets undermined, with more dillution, at the shareholders expense.

Rincon Lithium (RLL) will make a "cheap" strategic placement, again undermining the consolidation process, at the shareholders expense.

I feel i know PT's MO, & can work out his next move(s)...

Of course i could be totally wrong!

[spruik]

Shasta, I share your sentiment. And yes, it is SAD. This was supposed to have been a share with a $ sign in front of it but never eventuated and I am not confident it ever will.

I am sure it would have been, except for those numerous unrealised targets stated in (ambiguous) announcements and silly excuses. People lose faith.

I still hold some, but my patience putting up with all the crap is fast running out. When (if) RLL is listed we can better evaluate the company but management will consist of the same people.

[shasta]

Shasta, I share your sentiment. And yes, it is SAD. This was supposed to have been a share with a $ sign in front of it but never eventuated and I am not confident it ever will.

I am sure it would have been, except for those numerous unrealised targets stated in (ambiguous) announcements and silly excuses. People lose faith.

I still hold some, but my patience putting up with all the crap is fast running out. When (if) RLL is listed we can better evaluate the company but management will consist of the same people.

ADY ann out...

AUD $10.8 MILLION DEBT REPAYMENT TO
HAWKSWOOD INVESTMENTS (in liquidation)

On 26 June 2008 Admiralty Resources NL (“the Company”) issued proceedings in the
Supreme Court of Victoria against Hawkswood Investments Pty Ltd (Receivers and
Managers appointed) (In Liquidation) (ACN: 098 040 683) ("Hawkswood").

Hawkswood is a member of the Opes Prime Stockbroking Ltd group of companies,
placed into receivership on 29 March 2008.

The Proceedings involve the determination of whether a debt owed by the Company to
Hawkswood was due and payable on 5 June 2008. The Company maintains that the
debt is due and payable to Hawkswood by no later than 30 September 2008.The
Proceedings are listed for hearing on 10 September 2008.

Yours faithfully,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director
ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL
Further information on Admiralty Resources NL can be found on our Internet site:
www.ady.com.au
Australia
Investor Relations
Tel: +61 3 9642 8787
Email: investors@ady.com.au

[spruik]

I read that.

More money spent on legal proceedings, an what appears a trivial matter - unless it determines wether or not ADY is in default and therefore subject to be wound up...

Far out. Pees me off big-time.

[shasta]

I read that.

More money spent on legal proceedings, an what appears a trivial matter - unless it determines wether or not ADY is in default and therefore subject to be wound up...

Far out. Pees me off big-time.

We owe them money, & PT is wasting more money arguing over it! :mad:

Won't look good to Shougang when PT pinches $10m "earmarked elsewhere" (from the letter of credit) to pay this off!

Management's credibility is getting a little thin

[shasta]

We owe them money, & PT is wasting more money arguing over it! :mad:

Won't look good to Shougang when PT pinches $10m "earmarked elsewhere" (from the letter of credit) to pay this off!

Management's credibility is getting a little thin

Yet another investor presentation!!!!!!!

PT is really getting deseparate!

[Dr_Who]

Shasta, I dont why you are still in this dog. Do you trust all the BS that comes out of the people that runs this circus? The only people making money from this are the circus trainers. The shareholders are mere clowns going for the ride.

Abit like a troublesome girlfriend who dont give out. Even though there is hope of bedding her one day, you have to admit that after 2 years and no sex it is time to dump her.

[shasta]

Shasta, I dont why you are still in this dog. Do you trust all the BS that comes out of the people that runs this circus? The only people making money from this are the circus trainers. The shareholders are mere clowns going for the ride.

Abit like a troublesome girlfriend who dont give out. Even though there is hope of bedding her one day, you have to admit that after 2 years and no sex it is time to dump her.

Good question!

I did hold PT in high esteem before the Opes Prime saga, as he was quick & thorough with his responses to my emails.

I no longer view him in such light, though i do believe he is genuinely trying to do his best, perhaps trying for too much too soon IMO?

I was in this for the "value enhancing" demerger & the RLL shares, but now i'll await a decent spike & bail :( (PT is running RLL, good grief!)

Theres more upside than downside at these levels, so i'm happy to wait & i know most of those wanting the Lithium know they have plenty of time to get in, once all is announced.

I'll note this trade down as a "learning curve" :(

[Dr_Who]

I bought into ADY a number of months back based on fundamentals. The reserves they have and the potential was huge. I especially love th lithium potential. But after listening to PT and his immediately family talk crap on the net forums, I totally lost confidence and sold out. I made a small lost, but was prepare to cut my loses cos I totally lost confidence in the people that run this show.

So much potential, but yet so little confidence.

[doon]

Shasta, my thoughts exactly!
Dr Who, wow bit strong on the girlfriend comments. Hope no women reading this forum, and your identity is kept anon!

[spruik]

Shasta, my thoughts exactly!
Dr Who, wow bit strong on the girlfriend comments. Hope no women reading this forum, and your identity is kept anon!

I think Shasta has been most patient with his girlfriend for 2 years... :) Gee, once I had to travel 20km every lunchtime for a quickie and one day when there was no performance, she dumped me immediately!

(oh yes, she was blond...) :)

[shasta]

I think Shasta has been most patient with his girlfriend for 2 years... :) Gee, once I had to travel 20km every lunchtime for a quickie and one day when there was no performance, she dumped me immediately!

(oh yes, she was blond...) :)

I first bought ADY on 8/6/07, & it was around 24/7/07 (today's the anniverary!) that we had the highest share price spike (67c)...

So been going steady for around a year now :D

There have been some "performance issues" with her of late :p

[shasta]

I first bought ADY on 8/6/07, & it was around 24/7/07 (today's the anniverary!) that we had the highest share price spike (67c)...

So been going steady for around a year now :D

There have been some "performance issues" with her of late :p

Article of interest to ADY holders...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24078655-5005200,00.html

Nice to know we have majors as neighbours ;)

[upside_umop]

Abit like a troublesome girlfriend who dont give out. Even though there is hope of bedding her one day, you have to admit that after 2 years and no sex it is time to dump her.

Haha! Nice analogy! I thought you were too old think like this?!

[dicey]

For those who don't know about this competitor (Western Lithium Corp.)...here is a debriefer.
http://westernlithium.com/investors/presentation/
Recent listing on the TSX.

Either there is going to be an oversupply or a massive spike in demand 2010+

[Dr_Who]

For those who don't know about this competitor (Western Lithium Corp.)...here is a debriefer.
http://westernlithium.com/investors/presentation/
Recent listing on the TSX.

Either there is going to be an oversupply or a massive spike in demand 2010+

Thanks Dicey. Will do some reading when I get time.

[shasta]

Thanks Dicey. Will do some reading when I get time.

We finally get the quarterly activies report after hours...

I thought it was "reasonable", so tomorrow's trading will be interesting.

Is it light at the end of the tunnel, or a train coming? :D

Activities report...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201727

Cashflow report...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201727

[Halebop]

The cash position is tight again. Hopefully they finalise some project financing because they appear to be heading towards another few hundred million shares quite rapidly...

[Damo79]

Haven't been in this for a while, but still following the reports to see if they can make anything of things.

Noted this from the cashflow report:
Exploration and evaluation for the quarter - 2 193 000
Developement for the quarter - 11 500 000

Cash remaining - 1 221 000

But they're projecting exploration and evaluation for the coming quarter to be 150 000, and developement to be 450 000.

!!!!

Now is PT just yanking our chain? Either, it's just a bull**** projection to keep the ASX off their back about there ability to be an ongoing concern, or they're pretty much closing up shop.

Cheers
damo

[Dr_Who]

I see another cash raising coming soon.

Squeezing blood from shareholders while PT living the lifestyle of his dream.

[OutToLunch]

I remember the last quarterly didn't include cash held in Chilean and Argentine accounts which couldn't be included under ASX rules for some reason. Presumably the same thing applies this time?

On the activities side there's a lot going on and progress is being made on numerous fronts at once. The objectives for the Sep quarter (if achieved! :eek::eek:) would represent substantial progress and lowered risks to ADY. We will see; still rather speculative at this stage. :rolleyes:

[Damo79]

I remember the last quarterly didn't include cash held in Chilean and Argentine accounts which couldn't be included under ASX rules for some reason. Presumably the same thing applies this time?

On the activities side there's a lot going on and progress is being made on numerous fronts at once. The objectives for the Sep quarter (if achieved! :eek::eek:) would represent substantial progress and lowered risks to ADY. We will see; still rather speculative at this stage. :rolleyes:

My point is that it sounds like there's a lot of progress to be made this quarter, but they've only budgeted 5% of the expenses of the last quarter. That seems a bit ridiculous.

[Halebop]

My point is that it sounds like there's a lot of progress to be made this quarter, but they've only budgeted 5% of the expenses of the last quarter. That seems a bit ridiculous.

Agreed. While many of the measures mooted are either enhancing or transforming projects, it's difficult to see how they will be paid for (perhaps some would say its obvious to see how they will be paid for).

If they have scope to curtail the development costs they might be OK but clearing some of the transport bottlenecks wouldn't appear to make this a viable option.

While progressing the Lithium deal might assist the share price, it certainly won't assist cash flow. Iron will need to pay for itself but the sum of development plans seems out of step with the mooted financing.

Personally I think there is good value here but the risks are somewhat opaque and cash still appears tight. I suspect they will follow the established modus oprandi: negotiate some contracts, hopefully including some of those key financing arrangements, hit the market with two or three "low hanging fruit" announcements and milk a rising share price with more issues. The rising share price becomes the gambit and will be much better supported by having a certain employee shut up in the mean time.

Disc: Not a holder

[shasta]

Agreed. While many of the measures mooted are either enhancing or transforming projects, it's difficult to see how they will be paid for (perhaps some would say its obvious to see how they will be paid for).

If they have scope to curtail the development costs they might be OK but clearing some of the transport bottlenecks wouldn't appear to make this a viable option.

While progressing the Lithium deal might assist the share price, it certainly won't assist cash flow. Iron will need to pay for itself but the sum of development plans seems out of step with the mooted financing.

Personally I think there is good value here but the risks are somewhat opaque and cash still appears tight. I suspect they will follow the established modus oprandi: negotiate some contracts, hopefully including some of those key financing arrangements, hit the market with two or three "low hanging fruit" announcements and milk a rising share price with more issues. The rising share price becomes the gambit and will be much better supported by having a certain employee shut up in the mean time.

Disc: Not a holder

Halebop

Not for a second am i suggesting it's the solution, but ADY do have an unused $2m credit facility.

I'm sure it will be used before we receive the money from the 3 anticipated shippings of 90,000 - 100,000T of iron ore.

Rough calcs of the top of my head, but isnt that ~$20m worth of Iron Ore

[shasta]

+++ WHAT'S NEW Tokyo Japan.

While we are in the midst of one of the hottest summers we can recall, and it's not even August yet, our thoughts naturally turn to global warming, air pollution, and efforts being made to deal with these problems. Thankfully, one major cause of air pollution: gasoline-powered Internal Combustion Engines (ICE), are about to make an exit and will be replaced with power plants of a much cleaner and economical nature. We don't know which technology will win out: Hydrogen, Hybrid fuel/electrics, Plug-in electrics,Fuel cells, or something more exotic. But for now we're punting on the plug-ins. There are already a number of niche players making rapid strides towards bringing commercially viable plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to the market, most notably Tesla Motors of the USA. They finally started delivering production vehicles earlier this month. But it won't be until the Japanese, German, and US auto majors enter the market that PEVs will really start to make their mark. Our opinion is that once the neighbors start seeing early adopters zipping around town in urban rockets costing just one yen per kilometer to power, and with almost zero emissions, it won't be long before there is a stampede to electric car dealers. Think flat screen TVs or records-to-CDs. We believe the conversion period from ICE to hybrids or PEVs will be almost as rapid. Most worrying for the auto makers is whether they should be offering range-extended dual-source (electric and gas) hybrid power plants or just go straight to plug-in electrics. Commonsense would say that the answer to this conundrum is in the characteristics of each driving market. In Asia, the average driver has a short start-stop commute and is likely to be able to use PEVs early on, even if they still have relatively limited battery range. In Western countries, however, although the weekly commute may be relatively short, people also like to drive their vehicles for recreation, and so hybrids may fit better.
Thus, it is the Japanese who will be first off the startline. Mitsubishi Motor's i Miev will be available to fleet and commercial operators this time next year and to the general public around 12 months later. Interestingly, Mitsubishi will simultaneously release the car in several other markets, including Australia -- a nation that we thought would surely have required extended range vehiclesfirst. The other major PEV player from Japan is Fuji Heavy, with their R1e, also due sometime next year. But Mitsubishi is farthest along in marketing, and is placing a big bet on the new vehicle pulling it out of the pond of red ink in which the company has floundered for the last few years. In case you want to buy one, the i Miev will supposedly retail for around JPY4m (AUD$40,000), but should actually cost JPY3m after government subsidies kick in. Mitsubishi reckons it can get manufacturing costs down sufficiently that the vehicle will be selling for around JPY2m by 2011-- and accordingly the company has created a sales target of just 2,000 units next year and around 10,000 vehicles within two years. The big hurdle for all car makers has of course been thebatteries, and Toyota in particular has been stressing how "untried" and "early stage" Lithium Ion (Li-ion) batteries still are. As if to emphasize this point, Toyota has launched an R&D lab dedicated to developing a whole new type of air battery that it hopes will supercede the Li-ion. However, with all the battery manufacturing tie-up shappening recently, including Toyota's own with Matsu****a, we think the major Japanese auto companies are in fact much further along in their development than they are letting on. The first indications that this may be so arise from the fact that Mitsubishi has already increased its estimates for the i Miev vehicles, from an initial 120km/charge toaround 160-200km/charge now. The company appears increasingly confident that its new batteries will stand up to commercial use -- and in fact gave Edmunds.comjournalists a test run just recently. Another indication that things are heating up is the involvement of METI in the establishment this month of two battery/electric specific organizations. The first is a Li-ion batteries standards organization which includes the nation's 9 top auto and motorcycle makers, 6 battery makers, and Tokyo Electric Power Co. The standards will cover testing, safety, charging methods, and general performance. The second organization is a raw materials procurement group which consists of around 30 top miners, product makers, and trading houses, all of whom are seeking to ensure a steady supply of 14 so-called rare metals -- most notably including lithium, titanium, manganese, and nickel.Three of these four elements (Li, Mn, and Ni) are in highdemand for Li-ion batteries. This got us to thinking. If Mitsubishi's i Miev is a hit, and demand significantly exceeds supply, then it will be a free-for-all in 2010 by other makers trying to play catch-up. This will mean a tremendous ramp up in the demand for electric motors, sensors, and in particular, batteries. We then started wondering about the supply chain behind Li-ion batteries and whether stratospheric growth might cause the industry to either strangle itself for a while -- or worse still, whether a few key foreign suppliers could create chokepoints similar to what the world is currently experiencing with oil. No doubt, this is a similar set of concerns to those METI is trying to address with its Raw Materials Forum. So far as we can see, the supply of Lithium itself is not particularly endangered nor restricted. At present Lithium comes from both mining of Lithium-rich ore and also the evaporation and processing of ordinary sea brine (saltwater). Brine as a source is nowadays most popular because it is cheap, and currently the two main suppliers globally are Chile and China. The Japanese mining companies are well connected both in South America and also in Australia (for their ore-based product). A more volatile and difficult material to source is cobalt,which is used for battery cathodes. Right now, most cobalt in Japan comes from the processing of nickel ore and the only domestic supplier of the stuff is Sumitomo MetalMining -- a good monopoly for them to be holding. SumitomoMetal says that it will increase its production of cobalt by 80% next year to cope with increased demand. Like everyone else, they source their raw materials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces 40% of the world's supply, followed by Canada, Zambia, Russia, Brazil and Cuba. The good news is that a number of Japanese companies have reported recently being able to replace cobalt with manganese, a much more common and cheaper element. So our assessment is that the supply of the raw materials for Li-ion batteries is relatively robust, and although exposed to price increases, it is still not so unstable so as to threaten Japanese supplies. Overall, not just for autos, the production of Li-ion batteries by Japanese companies is predicted to rise dramatically over the next five years. Matsu****a said earlier this month that it plans to increase its investment in Li-ion battery production facilities to the tune of JPY100bn (US$940m) over the next 2 years, so as to be able to pump out 75m batteries for all shapes and sizes per month, up from the mere 25m a month it produces currently. The new plant will make Matsu****a the world's 2nd largest maker, after Sanyo. In case you were wondering, Sanyo produces 90m Li-ionbatteries a month, and owns 26% of the global JPY968bn(US$9.13bn) market.

ADY makes yet another placement, shock horror, who saw that coming :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201784

[spruik]

I did.

I am surprised that you did not. They are very low on cash.

[shasta]

I did.

I am surprised that you did not. They are very low on cash.

Twas said with tongue firmly in cheek there Spruik ;)

They have the $2m credit facility as well, so this should be the last of the dillution ahead of the consolidation.:confused:

What was meant to be 1:3.4, is now 1:10, well not quite! :D

Bring on the 3 Iron Ore shipments (WISCO contract now finished?)

[Mick100]

good stuff underdog -thanks

[Halebop]

Well the price started the day pretty well behaved at the support level. I suspect that is an ugly break on the close.

[shasta]

Well the price started the day pretty well behaved at the support level. I suspect that is an ugly break on the close.

Yawn....:confused:

More manipulation, bring on the consolidation to flush out the traders

[Halebop]

On rare occassions share prices also drop because there a more sellers than buyers.

[shasta]

On rare occassions share prices also drop because there a more sellers than buyers.

VWAP was 16.16c - last trade was 15.5c

Total shares traded 13,652,281 (465 trades), av # traded ~30k

The trades for 15c were right on the 4pm buzzer! :rolleyes:

[Halebop]

For 10 bonus points the VWAP yesterday was...?

[shasta]

For 10 bonus points the VWAP yesterday was...?

Pass?

I don't have historical data.

[spruik]

http://recyclefueltech.com/thumbnailsmall/rftboard.JPG

http://recyclefueltech.com/key_personnel.html

RFT's Board of Directors
From Left : Dr Daniel Galli, Dr Carlos Sorentino & Phil Thomas

No wonder PT cannot focus on the (ADY) job. :)

Home page is interesting. First paragraph claims "world leaders", second is about promises. Complete with spelling error.

[shasta]

http://recyclefueltech.com/thumbnailsmall/rftboard.JPG

http://recyclefueltech.com/key_personnel.html

RFT's Board of Directors
From Left : Dr Daniel Galli, Dr Carlos Sorentino & Phil Thomas

No wonder PT cannot focus on the (ADY) job. :)

Home page is interesting. First paragraph claims "world leaders", second is about promises. Complete with spelling error.

Next thing ADY will be emailing shareholders for $500 loans each :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201939

[tricha]

Next thing ADY will be emailing shareholders for $500 loans each :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=201939


Some heavy weekend reading and ADY have it all before them. They are sitting on billions, the major problem is finance and management.
Timeline For Personal Vehicle Electrification: Its Effect On Raw Materials Demand

By Jack Lifton
07 Aug 2008 at 04:32 PM GMT-04:00
All of the U.S.’ school lunch programs could be supplied forever with the amount of baloney that is produced and disseminated by the public relations’ offices of car companies of all sizes. This about the ‘coming’ use of lithium batteries for personal vehicle power-trains.
FARMINGTON HILLS, Mich. (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/)) --Readers of Resource Investor require and deserve the best information and analysis of this situation to make informed investment decisions in raw materials needed for personal-vehicle power trains’ electrification. Therefore I’m going to use logic, my natural-resources market knowledge, as well as the agendas being followed by the global automotive OEMs. I’ll provide information to allow you to decide if and how you want to invest in such critical metals.
Today there are two political drivers for vehicle electrification that—at least momentarily—trump market economics. The political reasons are forcing automakers to spend enormous amounts of money. None of them can afford the outlays and the drivers divert economically disastrous numbers of engineers away from improving petroleum-fueled, internal combustion engine efficiency. The political drivers are beliefs that:

1. Global demand for oil has already grown beyond the ability of the oil producers to meet it. Therefore countries, such as the U.S.—which already imports the bulk of its oil, will continue to do so until they are totally dependent on imported oil. Then they will be unable to influence the price, or even the availability, of their domestic oil supply; and
2. Notwithstanding the importance of the foregoing, ‘greenhouse gases,’ i.e. CO2 emissions from oil-sourced fuels are creating a detrimental, man-made climate change that must be and can be halted and reversed. Elimination of oil products for fuel is the so-called ‘global warming’ agenda.
It does not matter whether the above two drivers are true! It only matters that politicians believe that they are true and act upon them to promote legislative agendas to simultaneously reduce dependence on imported oil and to reduce CO2 emissions. American politicians have bought into both drivers. They have mandated that personal vehicles sold in America operate more efficiently, using less fuel per mile traveled. Simultaneously they’re moving towards zero emissions of CO2.
There are two ways for automotive manufacturers to achieve the goals above simultaneously. One, which I will not discuss today, is to switch to hydrogen as the fuel. This is today far beyond any financial capacity of any car company or even of the entire global car industry. The participation of the richest national governments would be required to create and mandate systems: firstly, a hydrogen production; and secondly, a distribution system to replace their petroleum-fuel equivalents now in use. The other solution for the OEM automotive industry is to switch the power trains used by personal vehicles. Internal combustion engine operation would be replaced by direct drive of electric motors; power would be supplied by onboard electrical generation or storage systems.
The global automotive industry’s business-models have been fractured by the political demands cited. Now a kind of product nationalism has now confused the situation even more. One example is in Japan, where car makers either recognized the dominance of politics over economics earlier than any other country’s car makers, or (Toyota) got lucky. This due to GM by getting out of the electrified car manufacturing business (again) at the end of the 20th century. It was Toyota’s opening, which it took even at a very high risk of failure. That move has given Toyota the single-best competitive advantage of all time in the U.S. car market. It’s mass production of the ‘perfect car of the moment’ for the politically dominated U.S. car market: the hybrid Toyota Prius.
In a perfect world. GM CEO, Rick Wagoner—whose word is unquestioned internally—decreed in 2005 that the ultimate goal of the world’s personal vehicle manufacturers is now to build vehicles that produce electricity on board without any generators using moving parts. Further, this electricity is to be supplied directly to electric motors directly driving the vehicle wheels. This ultimate electric car, Wagoner informed his supplicants within GM, would use a fuel cell ‘burning’ hydrogen to produce electricity in place as needed and in the amounts needed by simply controlling the flow of hydrogen to the fuel cell. Let’s call this the GM goal, because, in fact, that’s what it is.
It’s a fine goal in a perfect world where scientific and engineering advances could be dictated by the mere application of the correct amounts of money. This goal would solve all of the political problems associated with dependence on foreign oil and global warming.
GM’s goal is actually accepted in theory by most of the world’s car makers; but no one today can either achieve that goal or knows how to achieve it. Let’s see then where we are right now on the road to the GM goal; and let’s look at the different paths that the world’s largest car companies are on to achieve the goal. This will tell us, for the near term at least, which raw materials are already critical and which raw materials will continue to be critical and which new ones may join the list.
The following graphic describes the current situation in the global OEM automotive industry:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/NewGeneralSectionaddedbyJonNonesat124454PMon212006/Lifton%208-7-08.png
The above graphic, read from the top, represents the power trains used in 99+% of the world’s existing cars and trucks. The size of the rectangle does not represent the proportion of vehicles using a particular power train today-although I will update it to reflect these proportions in the near future.
In 2008, the existing global ‘fleet’ of cars and trucks comprises approximately one billion units. This year alone there will be 100 million new vehicles added to the world fleet. However a certain number will be scrapped—at least 10% in the U.S. but more like 5%, or less, in every other market on earth. This is because only the richest nation on earth, with an economy driven by a consumers, can have ‘planned obsolescence’ as a policy. So, since new production exceeds the scarp rate, the total global fleet is growing by as much as 50 million cars and trucks annually. China, alone, is this year adding 8.4 million cars and trucks to the world total. This is around 10% of total new vehicle production from a country the production from which was negligible just a decade ago! It is projected that Chinese vehicle production will reach 20 million units a year by 2015, and that this production will then be more than either the U.S. or western European total for that year.
Raw material analysis. Let’s begin a raw material analysis and let’s start with iron. A premise: that today’s global fleet of one billion vehicles were comprised entirely of mid-sized U.S. built automobiles, and we will assume this to be the case here to make the calculations easier. Then, according to the U.S.National Research Council, each vehicle would contain, on the average, around 1 tonne of iron-ased products, 1,382 pounds of conventional steels, 435 pounds of cast iron, 263 pounds of high-strength low alloy steel, and 45 pounds of stainless steel. Thus 1 billion tons of steel and iron are tied up in the "rubber tired, rolling polymetallic deposts." Annual world production of iron and steel is more than 1.5 billion tons. China accounts for a third of the global total iron and steel production. Automotive steel is the highest-quality high-volume steel produced. Key underlying factors include:

World vehicle scrap volume may well be 50 million units a year—with about one-third from the U.S.; and
It is more economical to feed high quality prepared (separated as to origin and type) scrap into electric arc furnaces (EAF) as a feed than to produce the same grade of steel from iron ore in a blast furnace.
So, currently at least half of each year’s new automotive grade steel probably comes from scrap. I say probably because China is not as well equipped with electric power hungry EAFs as it would like to be, but China has a lot of blast furnaces.
Regarding demand for iron and steel, it will not matter much what power train the personal vehicle of the future uses. This because, even if it does not have a cast-iron engine block and components, the future vehicle will have sturdy iron armatures and steel drive shafts for its electric motor(s). So the mid-sized American car of the future will probably use over 80% of the quantity of iron and steel used today—even if its drive train is hybrid or electric.
Bottom-line demand. Total demand for new automotive steel made from iron ore is not likely to exceed 3-5%. This contemplates today’s scrap rate and scrap volume, and assumes a modest yearly increase in vehicle production globally into the indefinite future. So the iron ore demand for new steel is not important so long as EAFs are more economical than blast furnaces. In summary, investing in iron ore or steel producers because of their part in the OEM automotive supply chain is not, in my opinion, a good idea.
Investors need to follow the publicly owned scrap managers or the integrated scrap-steel producers. Both are going to benefit greatly from the demand for new cars in the BRIC countries. In America an example of the first type of company is Commercial Metals and of the second is SDI, the steel maker that just purchased OmniSource, which was, until SDI’s purchase, the largest American privately owned automotive scrap processor. SDI is now able to get the lowest cost scrap feed in the American steel industry giving its EAF produced steel the best margin advantage in the industry. Scrap companies and ore producing and/or scrap processing integrated steel producers are the plays in automotive steel. (Note: both types of companies are also plays for steel based durable goods requiring high quality steel, but that end-use-of-steel industry is not my focus today).
The GM goal’s end result will be the total conversion of the world fleet of vehicles from internal combustion power train—utilizing hydrocarbon fuels—to fuel cell powered, electricity on demand, power trains utilizing hydrogen as a fuel.
The foregoing graphic showed the vehicle makers’ technology path. Step one is to reduce the need for internal combustion engine operation to part-time only. This by integrating an electric motor and its storage battery power supply into vehicle drive trains. This type of integrated power train is known as a hybrid. It became practical only when a more ‘powerful,’ higher energy density storage, rechargeable battery than the lead-acid SLI-type (starting-lighting-ignition) became available in the 1990s. For whatever reason, most likely because the more powerful battery, the nickel metal hydride type, NiMH, cannot be used to start an internal combustion engine-it will fail from the high rapid power drain needed. GM, which was the first car maker to have a look at the NiMH battery rejected it and rejected originally the concept of a hybrid power train. Toyota went ahead with the NiMH utilizing hybrid and kept producing them until, after the politicization of the vehicle power train process occurred. The Toyota Prius became a smash hit with the American public.
In 2008 Toyota ‘owns’ the hybrid market globally; since 1999 it’s produced and sold over 1 million hybrid Priuses. This number, however, represents no more than 0.2% of the total vehicles produced globally in that same period. Toyota uses, and is committed to using, the now-proven long lived, safe, and reliable NiMH battery. In fact Toyota has announced that it will increase its production of such batteries to a capacity of 1 million units per year by 2011. It will have the capacity to produce 1 million Prius-type hybrid power-trains annually by 2011. This production level will equal 10% of Toyota’s 2011 projected production of vehicles of all types and something less than 1% of the world total production of vehicles. Even though Honda has announced that it will join Toyota in producing NiMH utilizing hybrids shortly and will have the capacity in 2011 to produce between 200,000 and 500,000 such vehicles annually by then the two companies, which expect to sell most of their hybrids in the U.S. domestic market, will still only produce between them a maximum of 15% of their total vehicle production-and 1.5% of global vehicle production-as NiMH utilizing hybrids. In 2011 at least 98% of all vehicles produced globally will use an internal combustion engine fueled by hydrocarbons.
Diesels best Priuses on greenhouse gases. So far, no one mass produced a hybrid using a diesel engine. A tiny number are now being offered, but too few to even register within the numbers of vehicles produced globally today. This is unusual since half of all European vehicles use diesel engines. It is understandable because Europe’s high fuel costs have driven the development of very efficient small diesel engines. And European companies, with their very high costs, have been reluctant to spend money on what, until just recently, they considered marginal improvements in efficiency and emissions. It is underreported in the U.S. that some VW and Peugeot turbo diesel powered cars not only get better fuel efficiency than the Toyota Prius but also have the same or lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Different oil supply factors drive the markets of the U.S., Europe, Japan, and mainland Asia. These factors will drive also the speed with which those regions adopt or consider adopting the GM goal. Europe is less profligate with its oil and its imports of oil than the U.S. Diesels already constitute the majority of vehicles made and sold in western Europe; and their fuel efficiency is far superior to that of gasoline powered American cars. European car emissions are also much lower than those of comparable American products. Hybrids are being slowly introduced into Europe, but they are mostly diesel hybrids and they are mostly on large heavy high end cars such as Mercedes where fuel economy and emission requirements are so urgent that even marginal improvements are sought.
There’s a problem with manufacturing hybrid power trains utilizing NiMH batteries: a limit on the total production, due to resource limitations. Today all of the rare earths, about 120,000 metric tons a year, are mined in China. Of this tonnage at most one-third or 40,000 metric tons is the rare earth metal, lanthanum. A Toyota Prius NiMH-battery uses 12 kg of lanthanum, and so far almost none of the OEM-supplied batteries have been returned for recycling. They are still functioning; and documented lifetimes of 300,000 miles have been recorded. Therefore for Toyota to build 1 million Prius vehicles in 2011 will require 12,000 metric tons of lanthanum. Adding Honda’s projected production that year will increase the demand to 18,000 metric tons of lanthanum. It is rumored that Toyota, when it announced last month that it had chosen to make NiMH-based power trains until such time as lithium based hybrid power trains became safe for customer use. It had intended to announce that it would ramp up production of the Prius to 3 million units per year in 2014-15. So it is easy to see why Toyota did not make that announcement. It would have meant that in 2014 Toyota alone would have needed 100% of global, i.e., Chinese, lanthanum production. Considering that Honda, the world’s third largest in volume and second largest profitable car maker, also announced it had chosen the NiMH battery for its hybrid power train. This since, as it said, the lithium battery is not ready for ‘mass production, the 2014 demand for lanthanum by just these two companies would exceed the world’s new production and there is very, very little lanthanum available from battery scrap.
The bottom-line is that even if Toyota and Honda were to obtain the entire Chinese lanthanum production they would together only be able to produce with 3 million hybrid vehicles in 2014, and no one else would produce any. Thus the NiMH hybrid production in 2014 would be just 2.5% of projected global vehicle production for that year. A smaller percentage of new cars than in 2012!
Centuries for fleet replacement. If NiMH-based hybrids lasted forever it would still take 400 years of lanthanum production to build 1 billion of them to replace the current, 2008, global fleet.
NiMH-based hybrids are safe, reliable, long lived, and at least twice as economical to operate as a comparable American car of the same size and cargo capacity (825 lb for the Prius). If the Prius were only sold in the U.S. it would still take 100 years to produce enough of them to replace the internal-combustion fleet as it exists in 2008!
In the near term then—considering the demand for the safe, reliable, long lived, fuel efficient Prius—I would urge, once again, investors to buy into the Western mining companies in Australia, the U.S., and Canada that can produce rare earth metals before 2014. Toyota and Honda must be getting ready to pounce. No matter what happens on the road to the GM goal for power trains, there will never be enough lanthanum to meet the impressive demand for safe , reliable, long lived, fuel efficient hybrid. Lanthanum demand, just for this use, is never going to meet, much less exceed, the supply. Investors know what that means for price. Did I mention that China is building NiMH hydride batteries for its domestic electric motorbikes and cars already? That lanthanum used for this purpose is gone from the Western market forever. Did I mention that China already has reduced this year’s total export tonnage of rare earth metals—of all kinds—to under 38,000 tonnes; and that Japan's projected 2008 demand is 40,000 tonnes?
Lithium technology. Now let’s talk about lithium batteries. They are too expensive to make a lithium battery hybrid to compete with the Prius. Because lithium batteries with sufficient power density must be hand assembled from large numbers of small cells, manufacturing processes are a costly, labor intensive nightmare. It is estimated that the lithium battery alone for a Chevrolet Volt will cost (today’s technology) from $10-15! Unlike that of the NiMH battery the lifetime and reliability of lithium batteries is unknown. Ford Motor, for one, is not considering the use of any lithium technology known today, because it feels that customers will balk at short lived very expensive to replace power train components. This when they can buy long lived, reliable NiMH batteries for much less.
GM seems to have recognized this fact; and they are trying to bring to skip over the hybrid phase of the path to the fuel cell powered electric car. Then GM would produce and market the next step beyond the hybrid power train in the anointed path. This would be the plug-in hybrid in which there is an onboard internal combustion engine. But its sole purpose is to recharge the drive battery and/or directly provide electric power to electric drive motors through powering a generator. This seems like a great concept but the problem is the car’s range before a recharge. GM is marketing the projected 2010 Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid as a vehicle with a 40 mile range. Recharging is to be via plug-in to an ordinary household-type 120-VAC, 60-cycle, American outlet.
Many other car makers are trying to take this path so as to skip the hybrid stage and not try to compete with wildly successful Toyota. Even Toyota and Honda are staying in the plug-in game. Each has announced that it will add capacity to build a “small number” of lithium batteries and deliver “some’ plug-in hybrids as soon as 2010. Toyota and Honda however both see plug-in hybrids as a niche market ultimately for only a few high-end buyers.
Nonetheless, even though GM has designed a lithium battery-based plug-in hybrid power train that, it says, will use only 1 kg of lithium per vehicle there is a raw material problem. According to the latest U.S. Geological Surve report (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2008-lithi.pdf) on lithium, there were 25,000 tonnes of it produced last year globally. Of that, 20%—or 5,000 metric tons—were used for batteries. Assume that all of the current (excuse the pun) lithium battery production for laptops and other portable devices were discontinued immediately. This would mean that, at most, a total of 5 million lithium battery-based Chevrolet Volt-type plug-in hybrids could be made annually by all car makers combined. Yes, the production of lithium could be increased and perhaps even doubled within a decade, but lithium is not produced and stored for future uses it is produced to meet an actual market demand. Increased demand would come only from plug-in hybrid requirements and the very few producers of this metal, such as Chile’s SQM, a subsidiary of the Canadian fertilizer giant, POS, are increasing production but only cautiously. Just to be pedantic, if lithium battery powered plug-in hybrids lasted forever, it would take 200 years for them to replace the existing global fleet of internal combustion powered vehicles and 60 years to do the same in the USA. Does anybody really think that GM is going to re-invent itself as a company that makes a couple of million plug-in hybrids a year at a loss? GM today makes 9 million internal combustion-powered cars at a loss, so I guess switching over to plug-in hybrids could be an improvement.
Now you’re going to say to me that all of these car types, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery only are just steps to the goal of a fuel cell powered car.
By the way, battery powered cars would need to be based on lithium technology, because NiMH does not lend itself to surviving the initial drain necessary to overcome the friction and the inertia of a ton of iron and steel. Actually such a vehicle would today need a lead-acid battery system for the initial ‘start’ or a flywheel or capacitor system, or both, for starting. I doubt whether anyone will go to a battery-only system unless some marvelous battery technologies come along or people can be satisfied with shorter ranges and top speeds.
So now we come to the goal of a fuel cell powered electric car. Let’s call it the Wagoner; and its producer: Toyota/Chery-GM-Ford, the Japanese/Chinese auto company formed from the collapse of the American owned and operated OEM automotive industry in 2012. This was just before Hillary Clinton was elected to her first term, succeeding the retiring John McCain. It is now 2025, and 90% of the world’s car production is powered by plentiful hydrocarbon fuel produced from oil shale and tar sands. Nuclear produced electricity globally is being used to produce hydrogen for the growing number of internal combustion engines being built to burn hydrogen only. The remaining 10% of the new cars being built in 2025 are NiMH hybrids and lithium battery-based plug-in hybrids. No battery-only powered vehicles are being produced as it has been decided that this will be wasteful of precious battery metals such as lanthanum, lithium and cobalt. It is estimated that by 2015 there will be enough hydrogen production to power all of the cars being built that year, all 150 million and that by 2060 only hydrogen will be used for vehicle propulsion by internal combustion engines.
This scenario is based on the fact that today each fuel cell, which can deliver enough power for a mid-sized American vehicle, will require 1-3 ounces of platinum or palladium. This year’s production capacity for platinum and palladium is approximately 14 million ounces. This is more than enough metal to equip each new car made and sold in 2008 with a catalytic converter using 1-4 grams of platinum and palladium each. But there isn’t much left over. However let’s argue that half of the platinum and palladium is left over. This would be 7 million ounces. Today’s fuel cells can only use platinum, so in our hypothetical we have 3 ½ million ounces of platinum available. At one ounce per fuel cell this will enable us to build 3-million fuel-cell-powered vehicles. Now you’re going to say that each fuel cell powered vehicle takes away the demand for one internal combustion-powered car’s catalytic converter. This is true but the average catalytic converter uses only 1/8 of an ounce of platinum so it will take the ‘retirement’ of eight catalytic converter-equipped internal combustion-powered cars to release enough platinum (actually it will take nearly 30 of them because catalytic converters use just 1 gram each of platinum [plus palladium and rhodium]).
Only a mere century. It is believed by many geologists today that platinum group metal-production is at a maximum. So, even if it could be kept up forever, and even if hydrogen were freely available, it would take as much as 100 years’ full production of unlimited lifetime cars to replace the existing global fleet today with platinum requiring fuel cell burning hydrogen vehicles.
Raw materials plays. In the short term, the next 25-50 years, manufacturers will switch to diesels and hybrids to conserve oil and to lower emissions. In your lifetime the automotive raw material plays will be lanthanum, nickel, cobalt, copper, lead, magnesium, molybdenum, neodymium, lithium, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. Your best bets today are the rare earth metals, nickel, cobalt, and magnesium. Tomorrow I would look at lithium, and next week at the platinum group metals.
Be sure that cars and trucks are going to get more and more expensive and be made to last longer and longer due in no small part to the permanent increases in the costs of natural resources. Also be assured that he yearly model change which was devised by GM’s founder to counter Ford’s strategy of marketing by model rather than year will soon end. Longevity of power trains will be the factor that decides the life of a car and how long you keep it. You might want to invest in automobile service shop chains. They will proliferate as car makers and brands (Plymouth, Edsel, Oldsmobile) vanish and high technologies (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, diesels, and even some few hydrogen powered internal combustion cars (BMW, Honda) and fuel cells(Honda) begin to spread into the market. The high school dropout is not going to be your service man of choice for your hybrid nor is the dealer shop of the manufacturer who doesn’t offer them.
It’s a good thing that you don’t need to wait for a new NiMH battery because they are in very short supply. How long do you think it will take to get a handmade lithium battery replacement? Perhaps the play in plug-in hybrid service will be service shop waiting room entertainment systems and nearby motel accommodatio

[Halebop]

Currently 13, been as low as 12.5 on somewhat elevated volumes. Bargain hunters appear to have stepped into the breach at 13 but I suspect they are catching a falling knife. Next support point 10 cents.

[FrankEd]

Some pretty big volume this morning... The Shougang deal should be announced some time soon - here's hoping they got the deal!

[STRAT]

Currently 13, been as low as 12.5 on somewhat elevated volumes. Bargain hunters appear to have stepped into the breach at 13 but I suspect they are catching a falling knife. Next support point 10 cents.mmm, How long till the games are over and Macdunks Post Olympic Crash Theory takes effect? :eek:

[Halebop]

Personally I think the world is going to do that with or without the Chinese and the value of face.

We've simply rediscovered the alchemy of "normal". Its quite normal for economic and production bottlenecks to form and its quite normal for those bottlenecks to sow the seeds of later destruction. We're simply rebooting the economic computer. The question is - super fast quad core reboot or interminable 386er? ...And who bought theirs on Hire Purchase?

[shasta]

Personally I think the world is going to do that with or without the Chinese and the value of face.

We've simply rediscovered the alchemy of "normal". Its quite normal for economic and production bottlenecks to form and its quite normal for those bottlenecks to sow the seeds of later destruction. We're simply rebooting the economic computer. The question is - super fast quad core reboot or interminable 386er? ...And who bought theirs on Hire Purchase?

ADY update :confused:

Good god PT, he has discussed the funding, told us its nearly there etc etc yet we are STILL waiting for it. Im sick of the funding discussions/frameworks bollocks, DELIVER it!

I hope the ASX/ASIC is watching ADY, the huge volume & dumping suggests more than a few insiders knew what was to be announced...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=202051

[Damo79]

Man, what a mess. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say ADY will be forced into administration in the near future. Jump ship and save whatever you have left people (that is no investment advice etc etc... :p)

[Halebop]

It appears the 16.5 support level was pretty important...

http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/5683/adyjpgja8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

They could well go broke but I think they've got a little cash to tide them over for the moment. What they really need to do is focus and clarify their strategic priorities - because if they look like a mess this far away from the outside you can bet they are a mess on the inside.

Strategy 101:

Stop trying to do so many things at once. They are obviously being spread thin and it shows through from awful press releases complete with typos to contractual and production problems to missed deadlines to disaffected investors. DEFINE & FOCUS!

We are reflected in the company we keep - Margin lending, Opes Prime and legal action against 2 out of 3 major Iron business partners says something about values, judgment and risk management.

If you've got nothing to say, stop trying to say something. Personally, I'd have long given up on convincing the world on how "sophisticated" I was at investing. For investors, you score by achieving, not talking.

[The Big Ease]

this thread still going strong i see.

what is it about stocks like these, run by guys like this one that makes people grin and take this stuff?

whatever happened to yellow/red cards?
reading the warning signs
cutting your losses etc etc

the last 18 months has been one excuse after another. if only we could clear this hurdle it would be blue sky etc etc

some very intelligent people here continue to be advocates of the stock. it has me beat.
i truly hope it turns out well for all holders, but i just dont get it.

[SCHUMACHER]

Well well well, ...ive read an announcement from ADY and have traded it for over 3 years now, and they are basically back to where they were in 2005-06....they have had some of the most bullish years in sharemarket history between 2001 and 2007 and remember when they were up in the 60c range ....i sold in the 50,s and now I look at the sharerpice and ponder over their mismanagement of some of the deals they put in place....it seems like ADY have sold themselves short just to offload to the chinese steel manufacturers at the expence of shareholders value. Im basically saying that it is great to have all the iron ore stockpile but if you sell it too cheap just to strike a deal or two, it can come back and bite you in the butt............and in the meantime its just more convertable notes and excercise of more parcels of shares to dilute the sh** out of it and show the shareholders a vote of "no confidence"

when will it end ?....who knows....someone else mentioned that until they put these funding packages together with the chinese banks then they are essentially in financial trouble.....they need to break ALL old contracts and re establish PROFITABLE deals ....if Iron ore is in such demand then they should be selling at a premium if the grades are of an intenantional quality.......Phil THomas is a hard worker but he needs to have a stategy going forward, especially since they are sitting on a potentila mountain of wealth...cheers Schu

[SCHUMACHER]

Meant to say , "Ive read many an announcement form ADY" first line of previous post

In addition to my comments above , yesterdays announcement was full of probables and nothing that is actually set in concrete....they mentioned a MOU , so where is the statement from the other party showing the conditions of the MOU??

cheers Schu

[soulman]

this thread still going strong i see.

what is it about stocks like these, run by guys like this one that makes people grin and take this stuff?

whatever happened to yellow/red cards?
reading the warning signs
cutting your losses etc etc

the last 18 months has been one excuse after another. if only we could clear this hurdle it would be blue sky etc etc

some very intelligent people here continue to be advocates of the stock. it has me beat.
i truly hope it turns out well for all holders, but i just dont get it.

Me neither. When ADY rose to the high 20's in late June, I thought it was a great time for shareholders to bail out. But obviously, all you think is here come the 40's. All this and the Opes saga and Mr Thomas Opes involvement and Opes/ADY connection. Spells crook to me. Mr Thomas is a dodgy operator and I reckon he trades shares everyday for his benefit (he tried to of course) and don't work at all for ADY. 95% of his time on his leisure (day trading) and 5% on ADY.

[Mick100]

I'm not a Phil Thomas fan - never have been
The ricon project seems to be progressing quite well with pilot plant up and running to design specifation

looks like they are just poring money down a dark hole with the iron ore - the low grade and huge transport costs mean there's not much hope here.

I guess it comes down to what one thinks of future light vehicle technology - I think it will be electric in which case lithium will likely be in huge demand. Battery powered cars are going on the market for fleet operators next yr. From what info I'm getting, it sounds as though lithium battery technology is further advanced than most people think.
If they can develope a battery giving a car a range of 150-200km there will be huge demand for such vehicles (most city dwellers wouldn't do more than 100km per day)

[shasta]

I'm not a Phil Thomas fan - never have been
The ricon project seems to be progressing quite well with pilot plant up and running to design specifation

looks like they are just poring money down a dark hole with the iron ore - the low grade and huge transport costs mean there's not much hope here.

I guess it comes down to what one thinks of future light vehicle technology - I think it will be electric in which case lithium will likely be in huge demand. Battery powered cars are going on the market for fleet operators next yr. From what info I'm getting, it sounds as though lithium battery technology is further advanced than most people think.
If they can develope a battery giving a car a range of 150-200km there will be huge demand for such vehicles (most city dwellers wouldn't do more than 100km per day)

Mick

You aware PT is heading up Rincon?

Alot to like about the porject once funding issues are resolved, but PT in charge leaves a sour taste for many...

[SCHUMACHER]

I believe that PT may step down as director and they will doo JV parterships to spread the risk....it appears its the management of ADY that dont have the shill level to take on such a big project ....its a clear case of biting off more than they can chew....they should put their hands up and ask for help...cheers JAM

[SCHUMACHER]

Now its fair to say the fundamentals of ADY are rotten to the core........no cash and struggling to gain market support.....its back to 2005 all over again.......cheers Schu

[Crypto Crude]

last 5 trading days performance,
-9.09%
-12%
-3.85%
-10.34%
-6.45%
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Now its fair to say the fundamentals of ADY are rotten to the core........no cash and struggling to gain market support.....its back to 2005 all over again.......cheers Schu

Schu

With repect, ADY have rasied further funds since the last quarterly...

Some of the relentless selling down is unwarranted IMO, but when you have over a billion shares, day traders will milk this for the 5 - 10% gains available each & every day.

Fundamentals haven't changed, just some inept management hasn't delivered...YET!

[STRAT]

5.4m on the buy at 10c so should provide a temporary platform.If its real;)

[spruik]

Many in the buy q would be from those who sold in panick mode. While the coy doesn't deliver, it won't move up much.

Unless PT pulls a rabbit out of his hat and shows he wasn't BSsing after all, the only news can be bad news (funding the salaries).

[shasta]

Many in the buy q would be from those who sold in panick mode. While the coy doesn't deliver, it won't move up much.

Unless PT pulls a rabbit out of his hat and shows he wasn't BSsing after all, the only news can be bad news (funding the salaries).

Spruik

I have wondered whether or not ADY has considered ditching the demerger & leaving things as they are...:confused:

Perhaps a 1:5 consolidation is all that is needed to tighten the register?

[spruik]

I never was very convinced a demerger is necessarily a good idea. It does drive up running costs (double the fees to ASX for a start).

Nothing wrong with two divisions, like others have suggested.

From an investment point of view, this one has FAILED TO DELIVER, and we should really stay out. Even is something is signed, I have little confidence in this mob (don't often use this term).

[shasta]

I never was very convinced a demerger is necessarily a good idea. It does drive up running costs (double the fees to ASX for a start).

Nothing wrong with two divisions, like others have suggested.

From an investment point of view, this one has FAILED TO DELIVER, and we should really stay out. Even is something is signed, I have little confidence in this mob (don't often use this term).

Im presently not holding enough to really worry anymore, ADY is not the same company i believed in ...:confused:

I'm holding a fraction of what i did & have recently dumped more shares

I've learnt my lessons on ADY, & can only blame my own greed :o

Whilst i've made a decent profit on ADY overall, this last trade was at a large loss & i'll chalk it up to the fact i don't always get it right!

ADY doesn't fit in my new investment strategy, so the rest will be sold into the next spike...

[shasta]

Im presently not holding enough to really worry anymore, ADY is not the same company i believed in ...:confused:

I'm holding a fraction of what i did & have recently dumped more shares

I've learnt my lessons on ADY, & can only blame my own greed :o

Whilst i've made a decent profit on ADY overall, this last trade was at a large loss & i'll chalk it up to the fact i don't always get it right!

ADY doesn't fit in my new investment strategy, so the rest will be sold into the next spike...

Rincon Salar Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=202300

If PT ever stopped worrying about the share price & just got on with getting the projects up & running, things might just work themselves out!

Again they have raced into spending more money they dont have to build another processing plant for another spin off product (this time in Spain!)

Why can't they just get the bloody lithium sorted first!

Talk about spreading themselves too thin!

[spruik]

Not sure what it is they're buying... except for what it will do.

Why in Spain? I can think of only one answer: PT is going to buy private property there and this allows his trips to be paid by shareholders. Other than that, it seems to make no sense. No explanation was offered.

[shasta]

Not sure what it is they're buying... except for what it will do.

Why in Spain? I can think of only one answer: PT is going to buy private property there and this allows his trips to be paid by shareholders. Other than that, it seems to make no sense. No explanation was offered.

All of South America speaks Spanish (except Brazil), where we have our existing Iron Ore & Lithium projects, so i agree Spruik, why Spain?

If it's only costing 1.5m euros to build i'm sure someone could come to Argentina & build it!

What a rort, you're right PT obviously fancies a villa on Majorca or Ibiza

[STRAT]

Hate to seem pedantic here but this, the last line from todays ann doesn’t even make sense. Does anyone at ADY read these things before they send em off to the ASX.

The main observation is that it is unlikely that the only converting note holder able to convert of the next months will do so when the share price is substantially below the conversion price of 17.5c

[shasta]

Hate to seem pedantic here but this, the last line from todays ann doesn’t even make sense. Does anyone at ADY read these things before they send em off to the ASX.

The main observation is that it is unlikely that the only converting note holder able to convert of the next months will do so when the share price is substantially below the conversion price of 17.5c


They look like amateurs with there anns now...

I'll translate the PT speak for you.

The only convertible note holder with an option to convert early, probably won't as the SP is well below the 17.5c conversion price.

The constant dillution is not helping the share price at all!

[The Big Ease]

just a note from london:
property in spain is not a good investment at the moment. grossly over valued. moroccan coast is where its at right now for a decent buck.

[spruik]

Hate to seem pedantic here but this, the last line from todays ann doesn’t even make sense. Does anyone at ADY read these things before they send em off to the ASX.

The main observation is that it is unlikely that the only converting note holder able to convert of the next months will do so when the share price is substantially below the conversion price of 17.5c

Get the impression that PT doesn't expect the SP to reach 17.5 cents any time soon.

His concern for the shareholders is touching (last time in an answer to a question he said he didn't care about SP).

[shasta]

Get the impression that PT doesn't expect the SP to reach 17.5 cents any time soon.

His concern for the shareholders is touching (last time in an answer to a question he said he didn't care about SP).

He should do, he personally owns some 20m shares...:eek:

[STRAT]

He should do, he personally owes some 20m shares...:eek:Who does he owe them too? :p

[STRAT]

ADY on the mend over the last week. I guess we can expect a positive announcement within the next week :rolleyes:

[boxing_beaver]

haha yeh i was just thinking that yesterday :P

[shasta]

haha yeh i was just thinking that yesterday :P

Spruik

I'll let you explain this one :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=202924

Glad i'm out

[spruik]

Shasta,

Given up on this dog. Done well but it should have been so much better.

Don't know what I should read into this ann. Don't believe anything anyway.

Oh, just noticed you are out too.

[delinky]

I am a wee lurker and a hopeful investor and complete novice. This company really confuses me as reading through all these threads the comments really aren't very favourable and "smells" similar to NZ Bio technologies. (of which I got burnt). My confusion is this - why is there such a huge turnover with this company on day trading.

[Dr_Who]

I am a wee lurker and a hopeful investor and complete novice. This company really confuses me as reading through all these threads the comments really aren't very favourable and "smells" similar to NZ Bio technologies. (of which I got burnt). My confusion is this - why is there such a huge turnover with this company on day trading.

Dont waste your time with this dog. Management is a bunch of BS artists. There are so many good companies out there that deserves yours hard earned money.

I sold out awhile back on a small lost after certain management and their family members talked up and down the share price using the net forums. I feel bad for those that are still in it.

[SCHUMACHER]

WELL ...I JUST BOUGHT BACK IN at 8.6c today after a few weeks absence........got to be a steal at these prices.......IMHO thankyou Leymans......lol

[SCHUMACHER]

After the selloff today we are back 2 years to 06 price of around 8.6c for ADY...interesting times....lets hope some fundies now see ADY as a bargain...(joke) Classic !!

[shasta]

After the selloff today we are back 2 years to 06 price of around 8.6c for ADY...interesting times....lets hope some fundies now see ADY as a bargain...(joke) Classic !!

ADY Ann re AFR article...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=203214

[boxing_beaver]

anyone able to post up the AFR article or quickly summarise it? a bit confused...

[SCHUMACHER]

Well...interesting day.....someone just bought 1 million shares at the close.....good to see ....and no it wasnt me.....i did however manage 400,000 shares at 8.6c...today....lol

shasta....you still holding ADY?

[soulman]

WELL ...I JUST BOUGHT BACK IN at 8.6c today after a few weeks absence........got to be a steal at these prices.......IMHO thankyou Leymans......lol

There goes another quote. I don't know why anyone would want to thank a crisis because a share got cheap. If I bought a share hurt by a crisis (whether directly or indirectly), I would say, please don't fall any further tomorrow or I wished I got these at good prices.

Good luck to all ADY holder. It's just not your stock getting smashed, everybody is bleeding as well.

[spruik]

From bjsgroup at HC:

As a concerned ADY holder I sent an email to Phil today and here is his reply

Hi Barry

Lack of firm news is really a function of ASX coming down on announcements, and firm news. We are unfortunately doing a lot at the moment with little reportable results:


Finance

$200m note issue – due diligence phase with Merrill Lynch

$25m project finance – credit Suisse

$40m loan (http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=743884#) – Shougang – 5 year sales contract – negotiated


Iron ore sales

Shougang, WISCO and Shandong – and others


Production

Negotiated out f the $15m penalty clause, new operators hired, suing for $83m in damages, past first stage. Document discovery


Development

New mine plan set up


Joint ventures

WISCO

I am doing as much as I can and I am working with our teams to keep it going but the financial market bust killed us –

Finally I am negotiating with the receiver for a better out come and have cash coming in the door. Hopefully I can announce shortly I have repaid the Hawkswood loan!!

Regards
Phil Thomas




Appears there are no funds to repay this loan - yet.

[Joe King]

Hi Spriuk (BulleB)
When I first read PT's email I was a bit concerned with a couple of bits. Obviously you were too, and so might others in this forum, so have included part of (Kacy's) HC post....
"...With regards to "the financial market bust killed us" Phil is talking about the share price only, certainly not ady itself. Phil wishes he could have made an announcement to have avoided the sp drop but the asx will no longer allow him to post updates/reports as firm news.
The "receiver" is the opes - hawkswood receiver. Maria said Phil would have preferred more time to repay the loan, and may still negotiate with the opes receiver on that, or he will just pay it with one of the funding sources expected shortly. Sounds like the Shougang $40m loan is a done deal and that is what he intends to repay the h/w loan with."

Personally I don't think the Shougang deal is "done". Shougang want the IO but PT wants the $40mil before signing. Until the deal is signed Shougang will be paying "spot price", they are not going to like the projected increases in io price, so deal could still be completed??
IF!!! ADY can work through short term cash crises I believe there is massive potential here and like SCHU. have been buying up large. (must be close to top 100). Missed the bargain basement 7's yesterday though.... maybe today ;-))

Spruik, off market.... what happened to the "X" Club?
I have recently started a share group. So far 13 members. Our largest holding is ADY. If any X "X " club members are interested just send me a PM...
Cheers and good luck ADY holders.
JK

[brettdale]

Any company that keeps its shareholders informed of their activities gets a tick in my book. Unfortunately too many of them dont.

[spruik]

Hi Spriuk (BulleB)
When I first read PT's email I was a bit concerned with a couple of bits. Obviously you were too, and so might others in this forum, so have included part of (Kacy's) HC post....
"...With regards to "the financial market bust killed us" Phil is talking about the share price only, certainly not ady itself. Phil wishes he could have made an announcement to have avoided the sp drop but the asx will no longer allow him to post updates/reports as firm news.
The "receiver" is the opes - hawkswood receiver. Maria said Phil would have preferred more time to repay the loan, and may still negotiate with the opes receiver on that, or he will just pay it with one of the funding sources expected shortly. Sounds like the Shougang $40m loan is a done deal and that is what he intends to repay the h/w loan with."

Personally I don't think the Shougang deal is "done". Shougang want the IO but PT wants the $40mil before signing. Until the deal is signed Shougang will be paying "spot price", they are not going to like the projected increases in io price, so deal could still be completed??
IF!!! ADY can work through short term cash crises I believe there is massive potential here and like SCHU. have been buying up large. (must be close to top 100). Missed the bargain basement 7's yesterday though.... maybe today ;-))

Spruik, off market.... what happened to the "X" Club?
I have recently started a share group. So far 13 members. Our largest holding is ADY. If any X "X " club members are interested just send me a PM...
Cheers and good luck ADY holders.
JK

Good Day, Joe King!

Yes, I didn't think the words "killed us" referred to the company. I might have made it clearer that I intended to rely on the words "Hopefully I can announce..." in which I read the funds aren't there (yet) the pay the debt.

There is another communication quoted which looks worse, and suggests the Shougang deal will never happen.

I sold my remaining holding a few weeks ago.

About the "X Club", some were asking to keep the nonsense chatter down and others took offence - everyone walked out.

Of course I am interested in your club, is membership expensive (lol)? Not sure that I want to buy into ADY without some solid events happening there. I"ll send you a PM.

[SCHUMACHER]

Bit of a strange email from PT......i find some of his comments rather bizzar, perhaps he wears his heart on his sleeve at times!!!!

well im now looking at the totoal ASSET value for now and hopefully that will provoke the necessary funding to get this train moving....

as others have mentioned previously , the Lithium project is worth more than curent shareprice alone.....

Hey JOE, I managed to buy another 300,000 at 6.3c today not long after the open so im spent for now....lol ..im quite happy with my recent entry back into ADY but we are still not out of the woods JUST yet.......to think that last year, it hit a high of 67c and last trade was 6.6c tonite which makes my purchase today 1000% less than when it was trading at 67c....scary thought indeed......

Im sure such an asset in LI and IO wont go a miss and ADY will get their finding.........my issue is mainly the simple equasion of meeting their supply contractual requirements and ensuring that steady profitable cashflow begins to pay......lots of frustrated holders i suspect....im quite happy at my entry back into ADY but we are still not out of the woods JUST yet.......

[tricha]

Bit of a strange email from PT......i find some of his comments rather bizzar, perhaps he wears his heart on his sleeve at times!!!!

well im now looking at the totoal ASSET value for now and hopefully that will provoke the necessary funding to get this train moving....

as others have mentioned previously , the Lithium project is worth more than curent shareprice alone.....

Hey JOE, I managed to buy another 300,000 at 6.3c today not long after the open so im spent for now....lol ..im quite happy with my recent entry back into ADY but we are still not out of the woods JUST yet.......to think that last year, it hit a high of 67c and last trade was 6.6c tonite which makes my purchase today 1000% less than when it was trading at 67c....scary thought indeed......

Im sure such an asset in LI and IO wont go a miss and ADY will get their finding.........my issue is mainly the simple equasion of meeting their supply contractual requirements and ensuring that steady profitable cashflow begins to pay......lots of frustrated holders i suspect....im quite happy at my entry back into ADY but we are still not out of the woods JUST yet.......


Hmm, very brave move, a company with huge potential, but I'm afraid the captain is heading for the rocks.
Will there be a white knight, who knows.:confused:

A pure casino play, Toss that coin :rolleyes:, heads u win, tails its gone broke.

[SCHUMACHER]

tricia...there are lots of companies in the same position.....ADY has as much chance as the other comapnies.....we are in a climate of turmoil ...just look at Leymans.....so ADY is still operating.....lol
\im betting that with ADY asset value ...they will get funding....
risk and reward....fingers crossed

[shasta]

Well...interesting day.....someone just bought 1 million shares at the close.....good to see ....and no it wasnt me.....i did however manage 400,000 shares at 8.6c...today....lol

shasta....you still holding ADY?

No i thought i made this clear earlier...

There are serious credibility issues with PT running the show.

I rehashed by investment strategy a while back & ADY didn't fit into it.

[tricha]

tricia...there are lots of companies in the same position.....ADY has as much chance as the other comapnies.....we are in a climate of turmoil ...just look at Leymans.....so ADY is still operating.....lol
\im betting that with ADY asset value ...they will get funding....
risk and reward....fingers crossed

Odds are, from what I make of PT - u lose all.

A white knight comes in - u make 300 %

Worth a bet, depends on how much u have to lose. ;) Schumacher

Their Lithium assets are awesome.:D

[SCHUMACHER]

Hi Tricia.....i have to say , im an optimist.....i look at the asset backing and right now the N.T.A must be around current prices........therefore if I took a buffetology mentality, the asset backing per share is worth the risk (to me)....My view is that right now with their IO and LI potential and purely on resource alone.......................i would back ADY with a truck load of cash if i could fund their operations , but i would insist that if I put up 40 million I would want a position on the board.......quite a few companies have done this so they have a margin of control over their investment.

dont be surprised if the deal is already done with the Chinese , and why wouldnt you with the grades of the IO project..........in essence ADY have fallen over due to their lack of ability to deliver on there sales contracts..........regards SCHU...........

SHASTA.......You may have to eat your words, as i still see ADY as a valuable asset but do agree with you that the numbers need to change so shareholders can see profit...........always remeber that the past does not necessarily equal the future and ADY could get a new lease of life very soon..........
Going forward we need.........

1) Fresh off take agreements with the Chinese that are best for both parties,
2)We need production targets met and reliability from the operations and equipment to deal with the production output
3) We need to bring the POTASH online and demerge the LI asset and we will turn over a new leaf............PT needs to lead the ship back to its former glory and if he dosent thing he is up to the task we need to employ a director that is business savy and can negotiate well with the chinese........i would be looking to appoint a representative to the board that has strong affiliations with the chinese steel industry......perhaps get a shreud operator on board such as the management team at Jincheun who know the market in China........who knows but why would such an asset not attract the right deal if negotiated in the best interests of both the supplier and manufacturer .......leave it up to you to make your own decisions but IMHO im giving ADY the thumbs up ...........and im prepared to back up my comments with my cash...........i now hold 700,000 shares as previously mentioned so wish me luck......lol

regards SCHU

[spruik]

Meanwhile, back in the jungle, word has it from Maria in ADY's office that the Shougang deal will not happen, and the demerger won't happen either.

If fact we have been waiting for so many things to happen and nothing has happened.

There isn't even any certainty about being able to pay that $10m loan at the end of this month.

Any share placement to pay office staff ("working capital") will have a dramatic dilution.

Anyway, PT has other public companies to worry about (therefore not focussed on ADY), works from 8am to 11pm (including answering emails and forum posts) and must therefore be very overworked.

Let's go there ourselves before putting more money into this thing.

[SCHUMACHER]

SPRUIK.........this MARIA would not be able to disclose that kind of information pubically otherwise she would be in breach of the companies act.....more spin doctoring fella....so you believe that rubbish????


anyway there is still a $200m Note as per below.........

Work on our US$200m note issue is proceeding well. Yesterday, we had
a third due diligence meeting with senior executives from Merrill Lynch
who had come from Sydney, Singapore and Hong Kong. They reported
bullish conditions for the placement of “hot” iron ore company paper in an
otherwise difficult prime market. The business plan is currently being
updated for possible joint ventures described above. A key deliverable is
the resources summary from the Chillan Veijo deposit where SRK will be
asked to provide this estimate. This is required to demonstrate to
investors CMSB has sufficient indicated and proven reserves to deliver
both its five year sales contracts. Some additional drilling maybe
required. To-date we have drilled seven holes to a depth of 220 metres.

[SCHUMACHER]

read on..........................................

We put in place a converting note with YA Global Investors that has a
non-dilutive period to 31 October where we intend to repay both the
Hawkswood loan on 30 September and the YA Global facility. This will
be replaced by the Shougang/Santander or other facilities we are
working on.
Our preference is not to do any more placements, if possible as we have
at least US$240m of debt facilities close to settlement, and the possibility
of up to three joint venture arrangements in 2009.
Under the Admiralty/CMSB joint venture agreement CMSB is required to
repay to Admiralty the 4 year cumulative debt, currently US$38.99m
outstanding in February 2009, otherwise all the assets go to Admiralty
under a security charge arrangement.


Production – Action Against Besalco Maquinarias
4
In early 2007, CMSB signed a production agreement with Besalco
Maquinarias. They gave us repeated undertakings during 2007 that they
could increase production to 90,000 tonnes per month which is the
amount of iron ore required for two average size handymax ships. As a
important and critical backup strategy, Admiralty reached an agreement
with Santa Fe to provide 500,000 tonnes of the one million tonne order
Admiralty placed with its then (minority held) joint venture CMSB. Santa
Fe delivered 90,000 tonnes of this contract during 2007.
The plant had been constructed for more than 100,00 tonnes production
but due to Besalco’s design and equipment specification it fell short of
this amount.
CMSB has taken this breach of specific performance and contract to an
arbitrator for adjudication and claimed that it is owed 600,000 tonnes of
iron ore and is owed US$83million. The Chilean arbitrator has to-date been in support of CMSB claims but it is still being arbitrated. CMSB has
until Monday, August 17th to provide the Judge Arbitrator with a written
response to the Besalco document lodged last week contesting our
claims and evidence.
In the event CMSB is successful with the claim it will be ratified by a
higher court and then CMSB will be able to apply for charges or a lien to
be placed on assets of the subsidiary and parent public company until
payment is received.
Last Wednesday, we spent the day examining the plant design, layout
throughput mass balance and upgrade of the Japonesa-Japonesita plant
and our planned 3 million tonne plant at Chillan Veijo. When both Caleta
and Totoralillo ports are operational, shipping capacity will be
approximately 3.4m tonnes per annum. At 2,500 tonnes per hour
crushing capacity per plant we will achieve production of 2.0-2.2m tonnes
per annum. With two plants we will reach our current environmental
permit and 2009 shipping capacity.

[spruik]

SPRUIK.........this MARIA would not be able to disclose that kind of information pubically otherwise she would be in breach of the companies act.....more spin doctoring fella....so you believe that rubbish????


anyway there is still a $200m Note as per below.........


PT himself also has given away information that he shouldn't have. It SAVED ME MONEY.

As for the rest, I don't believe nor do I trust PT.

[SCHUMACHER]

SPRUIK....fair enough.....i dont believe that and it makes no sense for an employer making such claims ....i suspect some one on another forum is suggesting that to try and down ramp the price........its absolute rubbish IMHO....people tend to interprut what they want to believe, for their own personal gain and pleasure.........too much spin doctoring ....

cheers SCHU

[SCHUMACHER]

Also I see that PT bought 500,000 shares at 16.5c on market recently ....his own money , as opposed to Opes Prime Margin lending...........cheers SCHU

[shasta]

PT himself also has given away information that he shouldn't have. It SAVED ME MONEY.

As for the rest, I don't believe nor do I trust PT.

What's always worried me Spruik/Schu is the language used by PT...

(The following are examples rather than direct quotes)

"We are working on..."

"Negotiations are progressing..."

"Subject to..."

"Nearly concluded..."

"We will hear soon..."

It's this seeming to be busy doing deals that got alot of ADY followers (including myself) complacent thinking all was in order...

How many anns have we now had explaining just how close that $US40m letter of credit is?

Schu - i hope ADY gets its funding & makes you a motza, i just have no faith in ADY's management anymore...

[spruik]

As for ADY, it was SPIN SPIN SPIN all the while. Many promises and targets but no results. The whole company is BS.

[spruik]

Shasta hits the nail on the head with his sledge hammer.

Oh, and those shougang execs coming in March? Then delays with visas... June? Then July? Then the Olympics, then no more mention.

[SCHUMACHER]

As always chaps, "time will tell"

I sold half ADY at the open on friday then re purchaed at 6.7c later in the arvo on friday.......crazy I know but as i always say "any profit is good profit" in a negative market.........may do the same on monday with an almost 400 point recovery on the dow overnite.......thanks to Henry Paulson and Ben Bernake recovery package...bringing temporary relief to the markets..........nice recovery with 700 points clawed back from the previous 2 day slam dunk.....lol

later fellas ....heading out for rest of day

ciao SCHU

[Bobbyvee]

Well Schumacher as you say "the trend is your friend" - ADY have trended down at rates matched only by the likes of BNB - hope for your sake the trend does not continue - but I think it will.

You may well make a dollar trading the stock - that seemed to be what all the directors / ex directors were doing until Opes Prime fell over.

Management honesty seems to be sadly lacking here.

P.S. I was in ADY for while months ago in the 30c+ range but decided to leave it alone (as market was clearly being manipulated) - wish I had done likewise with BNB!!!!!!

[OutToLunch]

Come on guys, let's face it -- the fact of the matter is that we shareholders simply don't know what's going on behind the scenes with ADY. On one hand there is all this promise, a massive Li resource, plans for expansion and endless 'everything's going fine and we'll tell you more soon' announcements, and on the other hand we have confusing/inconsistent communications, missed deadlines, serious cashflow issues and increasingly dubious management credibility.

I dropped my entire holding at the end of March while there was still some profit to be had (around 30%) on my average entry price, but bought back a small parcel later on which I still hold now at a loss -- I regard it as a little more than a Lotto ticket these days and definitely won't be taking up the purported 'bargains' on offer, though I will probably leave my holding alone as a 'toe in' just in case this Li project ever gets going.

In hindsight I was foolish with ADY by betting so heavily on it, but was lucky enough to retrieve my shirt before things got to this. I was also warned by others that things were not as rosy as I had believed (had I fallen in love with the stock? -- probably) and while I didn't want to see the 'dream' evaporate at first, fortunately I eventually had the good sense to sit up and take notice of the warning signs. It was a lesson very well learned.

This year's AGM will be very interesting and probably quite fiery I would imagine. I won't be there but if any of you are, it'd be great to see some thoughts posted here after the event.

[SCHUMACHER]

ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL Answer from Phillip Thomas, Managing Director
As advised many other times, the share price just DOES NOT reflect the value of the company: not the
current, not the potential.
If the latest two announcements are read as they are meant to be read, the following comes out of
them:
SHARE PRICE WEAKNESS.
Shareholders are viewing the Shougang contract like a swim/sink issue and it is not. Should the deal with
Shougang fall through,
- there are other 2 steel mills interested in the offer
- Admiralty / Minera Santa Barbara could take the option of not signing any long term contract and take
advantage of the spot market.
- ADY/MSB’s assets are almost debt free. A mortgage could be put in place.
- Rights issue.
- Wyndham Explorations SA, our JV partner in MSB, owns ADY over US$18m that are due by February
2009. If they pay, ADY/MSB will have those funds available for expansion.
If they don’t, ADY will take possession of their assets in MSB as part of the Fixed and Floating Charge
Contract that was signed in 2005.
If Admiralty owned 100% of MSB, it could sell part of the stake to a steel mill to raise working capital.
This last option can also be done now.
SANTA BARBARA
- SHIPPING. 2 shipments for a total of 60,000 have been shipped in August so far and there is another
40,000 tonnes plus shipment planned for the end of the month or the beginning of September. From the
cash point of view, the Cape Nelson, for WISCO, has been roughly a net loss of 1m. However the
Abkhazia, for Shougang, is bringing in over 5m and another spot sale is programmed for early
September. The tonnage of this shipment is unknown yet but if it is over 45,000 tonnes, we will be
fetching about 9m.
Additionally, the technical specification on the contracts has been met and even a bonus has been
achieved, which means that production, although lower than desired, continues to meet and exceed the
quality standards.
- WISCO. Wisco is understanding of the situation in which Admiralty has been placed by Minera Santa Fe
not honouring its part of the contract and Wisco is not only willing to explore options to cancel the
current contract (in which Admiralty incurs losses in each shipment) but Wisco is also willing to join
Minera Santa Barbara in its legal actions against Minera Santa Fe and WISCO is even exploring the
possibility of a JV to explore one of the mines that Santa Barbara owns.
- LONG TERM CONTRACTS. Negotiations with Shougang continue for the 50% of the production, a
Memorandum of Understanding has been signed with WISCO for a long term contract for the remaining
50% of the production.
- FUNDING. Work continues on the Stand-by Letter of Credit (SBLC) and on the 200m bond with ML.
Current debt (US$12m to Ya Global Investments, A$10.8 to Hawkswood Investments and A$1.9m to
institutional investors) would be paid off via the funds received from the SBLC or from other alternative
financing facilities that are being explored.
Besides that, Santa Barbara can be a very profitable business and overcome its main issues with JUST
US$40m, which may sound like a lot but it is not in comparison to some other iron ore projects.
- Besalco Maquinarias SA, the mining subcontractor, is accountable for the low production and the
Company is taking legal actions against them.
- The lack of equipment (such as crushers able to crush material bigger than 2.5 inches) is caused by the
lack of funds.
Once these two issues are resolved (and they will once the 40m from Shougang or from elsewhere come
through), the business will be profitable, even using the Caldera Port only as we will be able to produce
in excess of 90,000 and do 2 shipments per month during 10 months, which is a total of $US6.3m per
month and US$63m per annum at $70 per tonne FOB – I have picked a cheap price -.
If we add further funding, joint ventures and more shipping capacity coming from the current
negotiations, we have the potential to become one of the major producers of iron ore in Chile.
The above shows that Santa Barbara will be self sufficient as soon as the operations of the mine and the
plant are run in house and some further equipment is added to the existing plant.
- FUTURE. Removal of Besalco so production is increased and compensation for low productivity is
obtained. Possible joint ventures with WISCO, Shougang and Shandong. Should this take place, the
finance requirements of Admiralty will be much lower, which is very helpful in the current market.
RINCON
- We are producing lithium carbonate 99.3% purity after a 100-120 days process when our competitors
have been in the business for many more years than we have and are producing lithium carbonate 96-
97% purity and after a 8-9 months process.
- We are producing 10,000 tonnes of sulphate of potash every two weeks from Rio Grande.
- Equipment for Rincon and plant for Rio Grande has been ordered and we are waiting for delivery.
- The tender process continues and progresses satisfactorily.
- The demerger will be voted for once the remaining tasks (which are minimal) are finalized and we have
full approval from the ATO, ASIC and the ASX.
- FUTURE: With the appropriate funding, which part of it will come from the offtake agreement in the
tender, RLL is poised for a great start.
Regards,
Phil Thomas

[Joe King]

Great summary SCHU.
I intend being at the AGM... any other Kiwis going?
Seems there will be a host of happy (holders) and unhappy (quitters) punters irrespective of which way this penny lands...
Cheers all
JK

[spruik]

Great summary SCHU.
I intend being at the AGM... any other Kiwis going?
Seems there will be a host of happy (holders) and unhappy (quitters) punters irrespective of which way this penny lands...
Cheers all
JK

Brings eggs and tomatoes... lol.

[SCHUMACHER]

Now im rather chuffed with my recent purchases......ADY has flown today and up over 30%

very good volume......53 million traded today

[OutToLunch]

Smells like there's an announcement coming tomorrow... just a wild guess. :rolleyes:

[Joe King]

Brings eggs and tomatoes... lol.

Gee dunno Spruik, way things are going might take a sponge cake and bottle of single malt for PT. ;)
Cheers
JK

[tricha]

WHY ADY did not fly, Lithium batteries are not quite there yet for electric cars.

First Principles Of Investing In Lithium Technology

By Jack Lifton
14 Oct 2008 at 02:20 PM GMT-04:00
During the current financial market meltdown Warren Buffet, the world’s richest man (apparently he now has this title due to having made money during the last two weeks while his competitor for the number one slot, Bill Gates, lost some) bought 10% of a (PRC) Chinese battery maker, BYD Company Ltd H (BYDDF).
DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/)) -- Interestingly for us what differentiates BYD from all of the others similarly situated is that it is a battery developer and manufacturer that has decided to make (battery powered, all or in part) cars--rather than a car maker trying to get a battery company to develop a battery for one or all of its cars. In addition BYD is committed to developing mass storage systems for electricity generated by alternate sources such as wind and solar. I do not see any such storage research and manufacturing American owned and operated company in the U.S., and this makes a great deal of the wind energy and solar energy commentary in the U.S. just hypocrisy or naivety in the extreme. Warren Buffet’s net worth is such that he could cover all of General Motors’ losses for the last five years, estimated at $56 billion, and still have a few billion left over. Even mighty Toyota, the world’s most profitable and wealthiest car company, in terms of cash reserves, is watching Buffet’s investment with interest and concern. You should too.
This first part of this lithium investing playbook is intended to be a brief, but I hope, as up to date, survey as I can produce, targeted primarily both for investors and for the purchasing personnel of industrial companies, of the market fundamentals and of the current and future end uses of the chemical element lithium in all of its forms. I'm amazed that, with regard to the electrification of vehicles, this subject has become the focus of such emotional debate. So I don't feel at all incorrect to call those who blindly accept the pronouncements of car company ‘spokespersons’--regarding the future capabilities and capacities of vehicles, which we are told will run on the electricity discharged from lithium storage, i.e., rechargeable, batteries--as the followers of the cult of lithium. I don’t listen to the spokesmen of companies that are de facto bankrupt, when they are telling me that just one limited-production car, based on entirely unproven technology with no history whatsoever of reliability or service life, will turn their worn out corporation with its failed business model around. If you still do believe that please get second and third opinions.
Please take note of the fact that I support the electrification of passenger carrying vehicles. However, I'm very skeptical of the time frames for the delivery of mass produced and affordable electrified vehicles as announced by manufacturers that have consistently lost money making cars and trucks. Additionally, one has to put such pronouncements of firm delivery dates and high performance characteristics into context. They're being made by the very same company executives who, a decade ago, turned down the Detroit-area-invented, nickel metal-hydride (NiMH) battery as ‘impractical’ for vehicle electrification. So I simply don’t believe they have the engineering skills or understanding necessary to make and execute on such pronouncements.
Investors need to take careful and thoughtful note of the fact that there is not now, nor has there ever been, an open checkbook, national government sponsored, Manhattan-type (WWII atomic bomb) project to develop batteries for use in directly powering the drive wheels of vehicles utilizing electrochemical technologies based on the properties of the chemical element lithium. One would never know this from the barrage of hype put out by the OEM automotive industry, nonetheless the research that is being done in this area is being done by hundreds of uncoordinated laboratories worldwide. And it's based on perhaps as many as a dozen or more different technologies all of which show some promise. No decisions have been made anywhere on the use of any of these particular technologies based on real world, real-time, experience. Every announcement by a General Motors or a Tesla, one of which has lost more than $56 billion in the last five years and the other of which has never mass produced anything nor made any profit, is based on hope. It's a hope that the results of accelerated testing on a very few hand-built experimental devices will result in a mass-produced lithium-technology-based battery that can meet the arbitrary specifications published by the PR departments. They in turn are based on believe-it-or-not focus group surveys, of the companies and meet those specifications in real time operation in the real world of constantly changing temperature at a price that enough customers can afford so as to make the technology practical for mass production. As of this writing no such technological success has been announced nor, in fairness, could it be since battery technologies must always be tested in real time. Since GM, for example, is telling the world that the battery for the Volt will last 10 years it will be 10 years from the day that the technology is chosen and finalized before we can know if they have succeeded! As a final comment I must note that due to the importance of competitive advantage to the differentiation of products it is most unlikely and most unrealistic to assume that any one company’s breakthrough in lithium-ion battery technology will suddenly transform the landscape. The opposite, that no ‘breakthrough’ by any one company will transform the landscape of the electrification of the motor vehicle, is most likely the truth.
The lightest metal, and the first solid element in the periodic table-it is preceded by hydrogen, atomic number one and then helium, atomic number two- lithium, atomic number three, is certainly the one technology metal the name most familiar to investors. This is a tribute not to the metallurgical or chemical education of the general public but to the power of advertising. The poet warned us to ‘drink deep or drink naught of the Pyrian spring’ but he was three centuries too early to tell us to avoid getting our information from PR flacks working for money-losing or wannabe car makers. Let me try to list some facts and figures about today's lithium market-fundamentals and end-uses so you can make reasoned judgments about investments in the production of lithium and its chemical compounds and alloys and about investments in the end-uses of that metal, its alloys, and compounds, such as ‘lithium batteries.’
Lithium is one of what I call “the technology metals” the general availability of which resulted from the Cold War between the U.S. and its allies and the Soviet Union, and its allies. As a critical material for nuclear weapons, lithium production and purification was heavily subsidized and ‘encouraged’ by the defense establishments of the post-WW II Great Powers, the: U.S., Soviet Union, Great Britain and France. Thus availability of high purity lithium is due not to the logical and economic development of its general uses but rather to governments' subsidization of the exploration for and mining of lithium at the beginning of the Cold War. It was then determined that the most effective way to store and ignite, i.e., facilitate the fusion of, hydrogen in a fusion weapon (a hydrogen, or H-bomb) was to bind it, hydrogen, in the form of solid, lithium deuteride. Lithium being the lightest metal its deuteride would contain the highest percentage by weight of deuterium (‘heavy’ hydrogen) and furthermore the decomposition of certain of the lithium atoms, under the intense bombardment of x-rays produced by the fission weapon trigger, would provide additional tritium (the ‘heaviest’ hydrogen) atoms to catalyze the fusion. Just as it did in the case of the then very minor metal gallium, which was and is only found as an aluminum byproduct, for use to make a thermally stable alloy of one of plutonium’s six phases at room temperature-the particular phase most desirable for the construction of a fission weapon-the defense department paid selected and technologically specifically skilled companies whatever it cost to have them explore for, extract, and refine these previously minor metals for ‘the national defense.’
Relatively speaking, it took a while for gallium to find other uses and become important in electronics and not just for bomb production. But lithium’s use in the post-WW II age of technology happened much faster due to the rapid growth of its utilization in the manufacturing of a wide variety of ceramics and glass and in the production of primary aluminum. Additionally organolithium compounds are widely used in the synthesis of useful organic chemicals the development of which had begun just before WW II and which grew rapidly to feed the pent up demand of the consumer revolution that followed the austerity of that war.
Until the late 1990s the U.S. was probably the world’s largest producer of lithium. It had also been, or it had at least also owned foreign operations until earlier that had made the U.S. the world’s primary source of gallium. However, as the generation of politicians forged by the experience of the need for domestic strategic resources to win WW II retired and died the understanding of the need to be and the importance of being self sufficient also died. This understanding has now been replaced by a belief in a magical global market. It can not only source anything if enough money is proffered, but it can even create deposits of rare technology metals anywhere, if needed. It will keep in check those unfriendly or competitive nations that currently have monopolies on their production mainly due, in the case of the U.S. in particular, to the fact that we have decided not to produce our technology metals so that other nations can enjoy our money and the pollution that comes from lower technology mining than American companies have developed and use.
Today the largest end use of lithium is indeed for batteries; it is estimated that 25% of all current lithium production, 21,000 metric tons as contained lithium in 2007, goes into the manufacturing of primary (single-use) and secondary (rechargeable) batteries both overwhelmingly for small consumer product (personal electronics to laptop computers) use. The world’s largest producer of lithium today, SQM of Chile, says that battery use for lithium just in 2007 for the first time surpassed ceramics and glass as the main end-use (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/myb1-2007-lithi.pdf). It should be noted that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that total world consumption of lithium, as contained lithium, in 2007 was 16,300 tonnes. If correct this means that there was a surplus of lithium in 2007 of 5,000 tonnes.
Note well, potential investors in the lithium battery space, that small lithium batteries sell well because they give a longer lasting bang for the buck. That is to say that they, the small one-time use primary batteries, are sold mainly for their service life length rather than their price per-watt-of-output measured against their competition. In the case of rechargeable lithium batteries their attractiveness is that they can not only deliver power for longer than their competition but, even if they may not have as long a life--be able to be recharged as many times as the competition, their lower weight and larger energy capacity make the devices they power more convenient to use when grid power is not available.
The problem with the use of rechargeable lithium batteries for vehicle propulsion is that the electrical and mechanical properties of smaller batteries are not easy to scale up economically or differentially. Most currently used experimental lithium batteries for vehicles are in fact simply hundreds of smaller cells wired together. This not only makes production engineering difficult, but it also magnifies failure modes the worst of which is accompanied by overheating. That can, in the case of a larger battery, ignite nearby flammable materials. Unfortunately for the car makers the best of the rechargeable lithium battery technologies in terms of energy storage and high voltage capacity, that based on lithium and cobalt, is also the most prone to overheating and failure. Even though such incidences are statistically rare and are probably due to poor manufacturing quality control the main stream press brings every such incident, today mainly with laptop computers, to the public’s attention. This alone seems to have caused first Toyota and now Honda to put off the conversion of their current and projected hybrid electrified vehicles to lithium ion battery propulsion and instead concentrate on the expansion of their production and use of safe, reliable, NiMH-rechargeable batteries. Toyota’s caution, for example, is manifest in its announcement that like General Motors it will offer a plug-in hybrid for sale shortly but that Toyota’s plug-in will have a range on a full charge of 10 miles while GM’s Chevrolet Volt is supposed to be delivered with a range of 40 miles on a full charge. I think Toyota, which today makes its own NiMH-production batteries as well as its own experimental lithium batteries, is giving us their assessment of what is possible with current technology limited by concerns for safety, reliability, and longevity while GM is simply going for the long ball. I hope I am wrong but I have to admit that Toyota’s business success is a far stronger argument for its veracity than GM’s continued failure.
Lithium was only produced from solid mineral resources until the last quarter of the 20th century. Today the largest part of the world’s lithium production is from lithium rich brines in Chile, Argentina, the U.S., and China. The largest single reported supplier of lithium produced from brine today is Chiles’s SQM. The balance of the world’s lithium comes from solid mineral resources, mainly the mineral spodumene, and the largest single supplier of that mineral is the Australian Talison Minerals, Pty, Ltd.
For those who follow my articles on RI please note that today’s largest producer of the mineral spodumene, Talison, was financed, in part, by Resource Capital Fund, L.P. (RCF) the same group that, as I reported last week, recently led a group of investors to acquire Chevron Mining’s Mountain Pass rare earth mining operations. They were formerly the world's largest single point producer of rare earths. It is very interesting that RCP has been involved recently in financing the critical raw materials for both the battery type used today for hybrid vehicle power trains, NiMH, which requires the rare earth metal, lanthanum, and the type of battery which its developers hope will be used tomorrow in plug-in hybrids and all electric vehicle power trains, that based on lithium technology.
When I, myself, first worked on lithium-based molten salt storage (rechargeable) batteries in 1963 the lithium and the research contract to my employer (Energy Conversion Devices, Inc) came from Lithium Corp. of America (LCA). The lithium was produced from solid minerals, mainly spodumene, mined and refined in North Carolina. That was in 1963. In 1965 I was involved in a project at the Ford Motor Co. in which the tabletop apparatus I had made at ECD was replaced by a large, heated ceramic-lined vessel filled with molten alkali-metal salts. It included those of lithium, that could store and release in a controlled way enough electricity to power a car. I mention this just to show you that lithium as a battery material for vehicle propulsion is not a new concept. In fact, it is one that has been studied for a long time. It has however not been possible so far to make an economical and practical automotive propulsion battery utilizing any technology other than 125 year-old lead-acid batteries. Sony introduced the practical lithium battery for use in consumer electronics as recently as 1991. During the 1990s though research and development of storage batteries for the electrification of cars was focused on the older nickel cadmium and then more recent NiMH technologies. Even so, GM decided at the end of that period to go with the more than 100 yar old lead-acid storage battery system for its EV1 all electric propulsion car. Battery development even when research is supported by large corporations and the end result is intended for mass consumption is still a long laborious process of trial and error.
Maufacturers of durable goods such as automobiles and washing machines are constantly fearful that their customers perceive them as just another manufacturer of the same thing; this is called product commoditization by the marketing world. It is great for mass-retailer Costco, when you are comparing its toilet paper with the ‘leading brand’ as television ads love to repeat. And General Motors’ marketing executives get nervous when people say that a small Chevrolet built in a low labor-cost country may be no better than a lower priced exported local brand car from there. GM wants you to believe that the name Chevrolet adds significant value to the commodity. So much value that it will differentiate it as a better product. Got that?
Now what about lithium technology for car batteries? Is a plug-in hybrid that is an extended range electrified vehicle and not really a pure plug-in hybrid with a dual propulsion system at all better than a true plug-in hybrid? GM certainly hopes you will buy that distinction-whatever it is. Note that a plug-in hybrid would be a car that only operates primarily on electricity stored in a battery. When the battery is run down in a plug-in hybrid it will be recharged by an on-board generator, gasoline or diesel powered, that will recharge the battery while providing some propulsion to the car not through a direct linkage between the motor powering the generator and the drive wheels. But it accomplishes that only by diverting some of the energy being produced by the generator directly to the electric motors which are, in fact, directly driving the car. Thus, this car is a hybrid, only in the sense that it can run on stored electricity or directly from a gasoline engine-powered electric generator.
I have repeatedly asked GM to state what the performance of the forthcoming Chevrolet Volt will be in both situations, battery power only, and mixed or generator power only, and all I have gotten back from their professed ‘spokesman” is name calling. Hmm.
Will the current global economic correction or slowdown affect the production of lithium? The largest fraction, 25%, of the new lithium produced and actually used today is for use in the battery industry. It's mostly applied in primary, single-use batteries for portable entertainment and health-use electronics. And there's a smaller, but significant, number of secondary-rechargeable-batteries mostly for laptop computers, extended use small portable electronic devices such as cell phones. A small amount of battery lithium is used for experimental large scale units for possible use in vehicle propulsion.
The largest part of the remaining fraction, 19% of the total, is used is used by the glass and ceramics industry. If the economic slowdown is not too severe or too extended the current producers of lithium will keep producing and there will be plenty of lithium for the experimental-i.e., automobile related- battery makers. If, as in any case, lithium seems to be in surplus and there is additional capacity already being executed and planned, there would not seem to be any danger of shortages. This is especially true of shortages due to some rapid expansion of the production of large scale lithium technology based batteries for vehicle propulsion. As of last summer, 2007, lithium was selling for $7.00 per kg; today its price is about the same, perhaps even a little lower. So, even if demand is increasing, then so must be supply!
One thing is for certain, new lithium source-development will be difficult to finance, as most of it is either in higher cost technologies such as the increased extraction of lithium from, as in the past, solid minerals, or is from politically risky countries such as Bolivia and even, in many respects, Argentina where either the government or the local markets for labor and consumables are shaky. This last (or first?) reason not to invest in a project is called ‘country risk’ by investment bankers.
So I predict that today’s lowest cost lithium producers will also be tomorrow’s major lithium producers. They include Chemetall Foote, SQM, and state owned companies the PRC, including, interestingly enough, Tibet, for production from brine and Talison Minerals Pty, Ltd. For production of spodumene.
Both SQM and GM agree that the plug-in hybrid battery for a Chevrolet Volt, as planned, would contain 1 kilogram of lithium. So, IF by 2015 there are major safety, reliability, and longevity breakthroughs in lithium based vehicle propulsion battery technology and its mass production, then up to 5 million new vehicles a year, could be based on lithium battery technology propulsion. They could be built using just the surplus of lithium available now even before the market drop.
The issue is clearly not raw material availability, at least not of lithium itself. The issue is the development of a safe, reliable, long lived, economical in mass production, battery technology. Even if this technology is now in existence, it will take a decade for all of the necessary real time testing to be finished.
I think that Resource Capital Fund has the right idea. Hedge your bets on lithium with rare earths for NiMH battery production. Those batteries work; and, even if they are not as good as the theoretical lithium batteries, they exist now and have proven safety, reliability, and longevity! So if I were asked for investment advice in this space I would say buy rare earth mining opportunities; they have never been cheaper, and look for information, such as my next article on which lithium battery btechnologies look the most promising. Or, of course, you could follow Warren Buffet’s lead, and invest as he is doing in battery makers that want to make cars.

[shasta]

Will PT ever learn?

Now he's spruiking every sale they make...

Why does the ASX allow such anns, when they are nothing more than an attempt to prop up the ailing share price?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=204474

[suntboy]

sounds good for my lyc

[Dr_Who]

How will they meet the $8.8 million loan this coming Dec?

[spruik]

How will they meet the $8.8 million loan this coming Dec?

Sell RLL... :confused:

Or the fax machine :)

[Huang Chung]

ASX release

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00896612

Dr Who, I think your question is about to be answered.

[foxysfolkfaced23]

Sell RLL... :confused:

yes

looks like its being flogged off

[Huang Chung]

Here's the announcement.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00898008

[Dr_Who]

Selling off the family silver to pay off debt and to finance managements lifestyle.

[Snapper]

Oh #### I was only in this for the lithium. My strategy of preparing for $200/barrel oil is in tatters at the moment!

[Sumnerned]

Apparently this co is more or less part of ADY, so it will be interesting to see whether we are dealing with more than just smoke and mirrors.

Snapper, you and I are in the same boat, along with a lot of others I suspect. Good sailing!

[SCHUMACHER]

interesting announcement........i guess its all about survival at the moment.........probably a very good move with the current situation the way it is.....get rid of the debt ....cash up and re build the iron ore which still has amazing value once they turn the corner..........possibly an action where ADY were forced to sell something to cover losses............im not necesserily happy about it but they had npo choice.......at least they can move on , focus on IO and still have a 10% hold of the LI project.........

cheers SChu

[STRAT]

Mmm,
Deleted ADY from my watch list today :(

[shasta]

Mmm,
Deleted ADY from my watch list today :(

You were still watching it? :eek:

[Dr_Who]

Mmm,
Deleted ADY from my watch list today :(

It wont be far away before it gets deleted from ASX.

[suntboy]

I bought into this Co 5 or 6 years ago when it was purely about Lithium and nothin else
In those years I have read every ann and now wonder where they could have been if they had a real boss who was not all pss and wind totally devoted to the original vision.
Rincon was and still is a good bet for people who believe in it
Just a shame it was run by a dkhead who can only be described as an irresponsible , compulsive gambler who lost sight of the vision and frittered away our dreams

Welcome to Suntland

[soulman]

Suntland, are you saying in those timeframe that you never taken profits off the table? So, buy at 2 cents and now they are worth the same amount in 5 years time?

I know someone that bought MGX shares at 80 cents less than 2 years ago, saw it reached the highs of $3.60+ and still have them now. Wow, such hindsight and you can really learn from them. Forget about the dream of 10 bagger. Take any bagger you want. Even a half bagger is brilliant (I'm talking 50% gain here).

[suntboy]

Yeah Soulman ,
just a package I decided to buy and put in the bottom drawer for 10 years
Still plenty upside Summit under 20 cents , GBG .11 etc
still 4 years to go

[shasta]

plenty of those around Sunt

add M Keirnan, and Vic Alexander (MSC) to PT in the piss and wind department.

Oh yeah, anyone looking to invest into ALE, AZC, TTY, MON, IRL needs to run a mile if they see Crawley Investments onboard...

M Kiernan is a snake oil merchant, & that's being nice!

[shasta]

maybe a piss and wind thread for ASX management shasta would be useful.

would you add Kate Hobbs in there?;)

No i wouldn't, check her background she's actually very well qualified, & has good links in the Nuclear industry.

PT & MK are disgraceful...(Dont know much about Michael Clarke though)

One CEO/MD i do rate is from a small gold explorer (CGT) Garry Scanlon, makes all the right noises & is ambitious with the talent to see it thru!

I'm keeping an eye on them for 2009 ;)

Maybe we should start a best & worst thread...

[Huang Chung]

maybe a piss and wind thread for ASX management shasta would be useful.

would you add Kate Hobbs in there?;)

The other catagory of management/directors to look out for are ex-politicians. Usually bad news.

[spruik]

The other catagory of management/directors to look out for are ex-politicians. Usually bad news.


For many years I was in the rental business. Statistically, politicians were among the top WORSE payers. That told me something.

[tricha]

It wont be far away before it gets deleted from ASX.

It will be deleted, ironore is following behind Copper, Nickel and Zinc.

PT sold the wrong one :rolleyes: But thats what u would expect from the D...H...

[Dr_Who]

It will be deleted, ironore is following behind Copper, Nickel and Zinc.

PT sold the wrong one :rolleyes: But thats what u would expect from the D...H...

Maybe the lithium resource is the only asset that is of any value, the rest are mere dogs? As long as PT and his merry men are running the show this company is going belly up. The gravy train aint got no more gravy left.

[spruik]

You'll probably find that in time the lithium assets are onsold for a huge profit. Being a private company, no need to report anything.

I am sure PT has a direct or indirect interest, having borrowed moneys from mates (if not PT's own) to do the deal.

I used to work with people like this. Thieves big time.

Shareholders have been conned.

[SCHUMACHER]

Good for a trade , thats about it....there are two ways of looking at the situation.
1) look at the fact that they will clear the debt and have approx 10 million cash after paying back hawkeswood/golbal etc...........thus enable them to focus on Iron ore and achieve the so called off take agreement they are currently working on with WISCO and perhaps they will go J/V and take a sizable chunk of ADY thus becoming a major shareholder....a bit like what Jincheun did with AGM.......
2) sell out and move on..........I also understand that they had no offtake agreements with LI whereas the IO still has cashflow and offtake agreements, and could increase if they get it right............still dosnet mean i will be holdign ADY in 2-3 days as i may have sold by then ...........lol

Ive never been burnt on ADY as ive traded only and i confess to buying in at 2.7c on friday for a trade ......intersting how post announcement the market bought up the shares to a daily high of 4.1c and closed at 2.6c ............the VWAP was 3.5c

lets face it , they now need solid direction and i agree P/T should step down and hand over to someone else.....

Here is some numbers on the IO for those that care.............haha
Santa Barbara Iron Ore (ADY).
FYE 2009/10

Consolidated Shares 0

Tonnage I/O Price Earnings USD

1,600,000 75.55 $120,880,000

60% ADY Equals $72,528,000

Less OPEX @ $20/Tonne (60%) $19,200,000

EBIT = $53,328,000

Finance Costs $0 $53,328,000

NPAT (30%) USD = $37,329,600

AUD $1.00 = 0.7

NPAT AUD AUD $53,328,000

Shares on Offer = 1,134,457,841

E.P.S. = 0.0470

P.E. 8 0.376

Share Price = $0.38



cheers SCHU

[kura]

you also backed up the truck at 5-6c???


you must be one hell of a trader/ timer
to "never been burnt" on a downtrend like ADY


or are taking ****,

I dont believe you personally.

Hey, Underdog, a good lesson in life to learn is that most punters will never admit to "stuffing up " and getting things horribly wrong, as it kind of goes against human nature. (Yep we all want to be a "smart arse" )

I had an interest in ADY appox 5..7 years ago (memory is dim) (I liked the lithium story) but after holding them for approx a year I lost interest & sold out (due to inaction re lithium project)

In the time I held ADY, the share price fluctuated between some 9 and 15 cents. Shortly after selling out, the price then proceeded to triple ! (Such is life) But it left me with an interest in following the ADY story.

Yes it is definitely sad that they had to sell the best asset they had, but if the only alternative was administrators, then what else could the directors do ?

I subscribe to a "tip sheet" called "Stock Analysis" and for you hardened Lithium addicts out there, they talked about an Oz company called Galaxy Resources (GXY) that had a Lithium project in WA. Personally I wouldn't touch any speccy miner in this market enviroment, but if you have to have that Lithium fix, then it may warrant a look.

[SCHUMACHER]

well underdog/Kura....if you go back to my previous posts , i mentioned that i sold out of ADY in the bull run around 55c last year.............it continued and hit mid 60,s but was happy to take profit from initially getting in around 9c

ive traded ADY periodically and did buy in somewhere between 5-6c from memory , but sold at a small loss.....i then recovered that loss with my next few trades and only last week i bought in at 2.9c to sell out at 3.4c post announcement......then bought back in on friday friday at 2.7c........so overall i have not been burnt on ADY...do you understand that logic? or are you just trying to wind me up??


Is that tall poppy syndrome im hearing ??.......lol
you have to rememebr that ive been trading for 10 years or more
regards Schu

[SCHUMACHER]

you also backed up the truck at 5-6c???


you must be one hell of a trader/ timer
to "never been burnt" on a downtrend like ADY


or are taking ****,

I dont believe you personally.


UNDERDOG, Your showing your inexperience,open your mind fella.....you can make money in a downtrend if you understand the markets........does that make sence ?


I will refrain from gloating in the future as its obviously making a few of you uneasy and suprisingly incredulous to think that there is money to be made from the sheep mentality of selling into a "bear run".....do you know what a bear run is??

Do you also know that the "short selling" can be advantageous ........

dont forget that someone involved in short selling , borrows the stock, sells it and tries to BUY it up lower,....the difference is their profit,....alternatively if there is good news which pushes the sharprice higher the short sellers become the buyers as they have to protect ther profit much the same as we do ..........so as the shareprice rises , the short sellers profit diminishes , and if they are really unlucky the short sellers can pay the price as the shareprice rises above their initial entry price .......when this happens there can be a flurry of volume to the upside as short sellers are buying up the stock to try and reduce their losses.............the higher the stock rises the more money the "shorts" lose..............so in summary the short sellers can be responsible for a "bear rally"


cheers ShHU

[SCHUMACHER]

p.s ......if there is a peak and a trough in price movement activity then it can be successfully traded ........uptrends and downtrends have both so money can be made in a bear and bull market..................Time for some brunch.....eggs benedict and a tripple shot late'
mmm all the best !! SCHU

[RossT]

UNDERDOG, Your showing your inexperience,open your mind fella.....you can make money in a downtrend if you understand the markets........does that make sence ?


I will refrain from gloating in the future as its obviously making a few of you uneasy and suprisingly incredulous to think that there is money to be made from the sheep mentality of selling into a "bear run".....do you know what a bear run is??

Do you also know that the "short selling" can be advantageous ........

dont forget that someone involved in short selling , borrows the stock, sells it and tries to BUY it up lower,....the difference is their profit,....alternatively if there is good news which pushes the sharprice higher the short sellers become the buyers as they have to protect ther profit much the same as we do ..........so as the shareprice rises , the short sellers profit diminishes , and if they are really unlucky the short sellers can pay the price as the shareprice rises above their initial entry price .......when this happens there can be a flurry of volume to the upside as short sellers are buying up the stock to try and reduce their losses.............the higher the stock rises the more money the "shorts" lose..............so in summary the short sellers can be responsible for a "bear rally"


cheers ShHU

A classic example of what you described if I'm correct ( short selling squeeze ) happened last week with Volkswagen "VLKAY". Short sellers scrambling to buy forced the shareprice up over 400% after Porcshe announced their plans to up their stake in VW. It went from around 50 to well over 200 euros !!!, temporarily overtaking Exxon Mobil as the worlds biggest co by market cap.

http://tinyurl.com/5abzrm

[SCHUMACHER]

UNDERDOG...I think your grossly missing my point.......im a trader and dont hold long.....since april this year ive turned over 7 million in stock buys and sells so im rather busy looking for the dollar profit...........if ive mentioned ive bought at 6.7c then i would have ridden a price movement then sold out rather quickly....thus i dont hold stock for very long .....less that 2-3 days and this year usually about 1 day on average......im not a long term holder of ADY or many other stocks ......ive traded for wins and losses this year but overall ADY i am still in the BLACK!!.....enough said.............good luck to you if your holding .........otherwise cut the constant rambling....thanks and try and enjoy others successes as much as the losses.......after all we are all here to try and incrase ones wealth......this year has been a shocker for most and it really comes down to how each one of us manages our money>>>>>cheers

[SCHUMACHER]

Here is a post from another trading website forum, which i found very informative and basically spells out ADY,s future.............enjoy

My Fellow readers.

What a bunch of school girl prissy drissel I have been reading over the past few days.

As the only person to back the winning horse being that Rincon would be sold and actually make money on the options trading side of ADY let me put forth my perspective of these latest events.

From my readings none of you understand the company as what has transcribed is no simple turn of events. I put this to a mixture of reasons. One of the main being the nature of the information released does not give enough detail or clarity on issues in conjection with the fact Maria and the whole IR team at ADY is rubbish. Maria doesnt have a clue and PT just says one thing and does another.

Looking at the situation of ADY. They were up **** creek without a paddle plain and simple. The sale of Rincon was the only logical step to actually save the company. Here is my reasons why:

Firstly to repay the 20 mill+ (AUD$ and USD$ combined) you need an income. ADY did not have one. Iron Ore markets are plumeting, with added difficulties in production at Vallenar, doing the math, the latest row of shipments were done just breaking even, possibly at a loss to keep the lines of business open and a happy business relationship with the buyer(s).

The sale of Vallenar in the current financial climate was just not possible nor a realistic goal. No one will touch an asset that is in such financial turmoil as Vallenar. You have a 60% ownership of an asset, with legal cases all over the place intertwined with the stench of the Opes Prime fiasco. Blumberg as a director of ADY has put ADY in the investment reputation ****list, let alone the other inter relationships between Opes and ADY.

Now in addition to the crap associated with Farkas (F$%karse) and Belsaco, you have the recievers of Hawkswood breathing down the back of ADY's neck thinking beauty here comes payday probably at the door about to throw the company into recievership for not paying the 1st installment of the Hawkswood loan on time and take control of the companies assets.

So recapping, you have a company in 2 major halves, one is a sinking I/O operation with major complexities. The other a tin shed and a bunch of salt lake ponds and big piles of salt sitting there in pilot stage, for both you realistically require a combiend total of $500 million to get them going with no income comming through the door. The company has debt up its arse with no way of making payment as your operations are losing money/just sitting there with an iron ore market flooded with oversuply of ore and you have a reputation as good as Connex (Melbourne train provider, trains are constantly late, not enough, exceptionally bad reputation, if you are from VIC you will know what I am talking about) which is getting worse by the day due to the unveiling nature of the Opes fiasco.

If any of you can sit there and waffle on about selling the I/O after really looking at the perspective of it. Your a moron plain and simple. The sale of Rincon was the only option of keeping the company alive and to stop the recievers from walking through the door and shutting ADY down for good. No one will touch the I/O before Feb when there is the possibility of 100% ownership plain and simple regardless of monies owed or able to be recieved, no ifs or buts it simply wont and wouldnt happen especially when the opp is most likely running at a loss when taking into account current spot Iron Ore prices.

Now what I cant figure out is why the management team have stuffed up so badly. Especially the inner workings of Vallenar. At minimum, why has Mike Clarke no gone and gotten a $1-5 mill USD overdraft to ensure the ship and its day to day operations run properly? Why have there not been legal maneuvers put in place to get Farkas to contribute to his 40% of company operations (these do exist and are available to ADY), he has plenty of cash, search him on youtube, his video is him making a couple of hundred thousand USD donation in a Telethon, also he looks like a poof while doing it, check out the haircut, not to mention if you read about his latest Presidential campaign (Yes, he is running for Chilean president in the 2010 elections...) the guy is handing out money to cab drivers for taxi repairs. Clearly he can help with his business interests. In addition what exactly does Ross Harper or John Anderson do? (I can answer that one.... F*$k all)

At minimum, the company and shareholders need to do some deep restructuring of the company and your own investments.

Get rid of the current management team, plain and simple. They are a pack of morons who dont give shareholders enough information/understanding of whats going on. Secondly sort out Vallenar. Get belsaco and Farkas out of there (this is just logic). I am no lawyer but from what I have read on company announcements and herd around the traps, ADY will win the case, breach of contract is breach of contract plain and simple. ADY should clean up in the court case and have compensation paid to them, while it may not be US 83 mill, expect at least 40% handed to ADY in Fe as ADY doesnt have the cash, Farkas wont probably wont sell (at least to ADY), and if we cant sell 60% what hope does Farkas have of selling 40% with all the same issues, especially on the flip side, if you were a CEO would you buy non controlling stake of a company running at bare minimum profit, turmoiled and intertwined with a company with a reputation as bad as ADY?.... I think not.

Most importantly. Stop bugarising round with the Chinese and letters of credit. Get a JV with a european/american wealthy steel mill going. Asia is too much hassel and the market is dominated by Fortescue, Rio and BHP. Where as the Russian market for example is prime, the two biggest steel mills in Russia are controlled by Roman Abramovich (Evraz) and Alexei Mordashov (Seversal), 2 of the richest men in the world both of the Forbes top 100 list, who dont use letters of credit or loan facilities , they just pay cash and give there companies fantastic handouts (Abramovich has given his club Chelsea FC a 500 million pound interest free loan...) not to mention these steel mills are buying up all the ore they can get there hands on as to them more ore equals more steel, more steel equals more profit. Get a mill like these guys in on a 51-49 percent ownership JV, and get the place sorted by maximising production wilest increasing the mine life through tennament acquisation/other junior miner take overs to 50 years and generate profit through full expansion of logistical facilities. Its not rocket science.

Now to those thinking of going to the ASX/ASIC to lodge a complaint, dont bother, they will laugh at you. ADY is in its full right to sell Rincon, as they will say that is was necessary for the survival of the company as the debts are clearly there and a large issue. Enough said, dont waste your time or money regardless of who is right or wrong. Not to mention it will get you nowhere as even if they are forced not to sell the asset they will head into recievership for failure to pay the Hawkswood loan and Vallenar and Rincon will end up in the hands of the recievers.....

I hope you all see some of my perspective, if not enjoy the read, I feel like ive written a book. Hope to see you all at the AGM, and remember the golden rule of share trading: Leave emotion at the door. Alot of you seem to have forgotten that principle to avoid losses.

[SCHUMACHER]

quote
"Rincon, for all intensive purposes, a tin shed and a bunch of salt lake ponds, with a process that is in the stage of being patented. It requires $250 mill USD for the development of both Rincon and Rio Grande, and is 4-5 years away from producing at maximum levels.

Fact is, ADY sold Rincon at what is is really worth. Dont let the JORC's and PT bull fool you. Rincon is not worth a dime over $30 mill USD, especially in the current financial climate for the sole reason that the project, while bankable has to much exposure and cost involved. There are no sales contracts (future or current) and the project needs major work and finance.

Untill then its a tin shed and a bunch of salt ponds. Get with the program and look at the perspective."

[Dr_Who]

The whole ADY and its management smells to high heaven.

I wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole.

What a dog run by fleas.

[stevo1]

The whole ADY and its management smells to high heaven.

I wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole.

What a dog run by fleas.

Can only agree with that Dr.Unfortunate for shareholders but a pity management is not held accountable for the BS that was pumped to the shareholders.Selling of Rincon stinks to high heaven and eventually will end up in the directors pockets I reckon.What a crook outfit.

[SCHUMACHER]

The whole ADY and its management smells to high heaven.

I wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole.

What a dog run by fleas.

DR WHO...perhaps you can take P/T away in your tardis to a place that is very hot, and I dont mean the Carribean...........?? lol

[Dr_Who]

DR WHO...perhaps you can take P/T away in your tardis to a place that is very hot, and I dont mean the Carribean...........?? lol

Things like this best left out for the garbage collectors on garbage days. Dont want my Tardis smelling like trash that cant be wasted off. lol

All honesty, I feel for the shareholders.

[shasta]

Things like this best left out for the garbage collectors on garbage days. Dont want my Tardis smelling like trash that cant be wasted off. lol

All honesty, I feel for the shareholders.

Before we all flog this dead horse to bits...(which i'm all in favour of :D)

The ride from 21c to 67c in just 6 weeks was remarkable...

That ann which stated the $US45b worth of Lithium set the stock alight

ADY was worthy of dissection by Phaedrus, it has all the elements of investing...

Easy money, greed, complacency, "multi-bagger" potential, blue sky valuations, & a MD who spent more time on internet forums than actually inking contracts!

...and then the sh*t hit the proverbial :(

[tricha]

quote
"Rincon, for all intensive purposes, a tin shed and a bunch of salt lake ponds, with a process that is in the stage of being patented. It requires $250 mill USD for the development of both Rincon and Rio Grande, and is 4-5 years away from producing at maximum levels.

Fact is, ADY sold Rincon at what is is really worth. Dont let the JORC's and PT bull fool you. Rincon is not worth a dime over $30 mill USD, especially in the current financial climate for the sole reason that the project, while bankable has to much exposure and cost involved. There are no sales contracts (future or current) and the project needs major work and finance.

Untill then its a tin shed and a bunch of salt ponds. Get with the program and look at the perspective."

Hmm, The mighty " Mini " in the Ch CH press is coming out with Lithium ION batteries. Now owned by BMW, ( German precision ) range 250km.

They sold the jewel in the crown, the iron ore is a joke. :eek:

[RossT]

PT resigns as MD. A bit like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

[stevo1]

PT resigns as MD. A bit like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The horse has bolted with the girl and the golden coach to be apprehended by senor bandito and his cohorts down the road.

[Dr_Who]

Anything left in ADY worth anything?

Seems like senior bandito has left the barn empty.

Who is this John Anderson guy?

[suntboy]

What psses me off is the knob is still on the board
Altho whilst I do not know how it works , being a non exec director must surely still hold him accountable if more skeletons are revealed further down the track
If the guy had any class or brains he would have disappeared (oops , forgot he gambled every thing away and cant afford a ticket )

[Joe King]

I wouldn,t be surprised if ASIC consider holding his passport pending investigation.
There are some pretty disgruntled punters... some with connections in high places.
The deal looks blatantly suspect, but even the cleaverest of crooks get caught out.
And the "cleaverest" of punters too :-(
OUCH!!!!
quote Shasta "The ride from 21c to 67c in just 6 weeks was remarkable..."
The slide from 21c to 2.1C has caused some adrenalin rushes too
Cheers
JK

[SCHUMACHER]

JK...hows the funds ATM
Markets a shocker right now............can I give you some advice?/
take no advice from anyone at the moment. Listen to your instincts and hoard that cash.....lol

Ive been looking for a few long term potentials but the risk is still in the market so its a bit of a punt, especially with the econonomic slowdown in manufacturing and the car industry having its biggest drop in 26 years would you believe!

its definately hard to trade a buck at the moment....hope your heads above water

i took a small loss yesterday...in ADY ..sold at the open at 2.4c taking a $300 drop on each 100k held....got back in at 2.2c and sold again at 2.3c .....thats the best i can muster at the moment, as i just cant seem to stay in the markets for more than 24 hours ATM....
\cheers SCHU

[Dr_Who]

i took a small loss yesterday...in ADY ..sold at the open at 2.4c taking a $300 drop on each 100k held....got back in at 2.2c and sold again at 2.3c .....thats the best i can muster at the moment, as i just cant seem to stay in the markets for more than 24 hours ATM....
\cheers SCHU

Is your office located at Sky City CAsino? :eek::eek:

[SCHUMACHER]

DR WHO...whats the difference between gambling and the sharemarket........answer: nothing.........haha


cheers SCHU

[Yossarian]

take no advice from anyone at the moment.

Ok I will ignore you then :) ... but then I guess I'd be taking your advice... :confused:

[AMR]

Schu, aren't there better stocks to trade?

[SCHUMACHER]

AMR....plenty of stocks to trade....its a CASE OF volume and right directional movement .....ADY is an hourly trade if there is enough volume...........penny dreadfulls can be trouble so its wise not to put too much money on the line... it can reap rewards......alternatively you can get burnt ...just like most stocks

[STRAT]

DR WHO...whats the difference between gambling and the sharemarket........answer: nothing.........haha


cheers SCHUhaha, never a truer word said :D

[Dr_Who]

How low will this dog go?

Can someone put it down pls.

There should be an enquiry into PT's actions.

[soulman]

How low will this dog go?

Can someone put it down pls.

There should be an enquiry into PT's actions.

Slow death Dr. Just like AFG and ABS before them. BNB might follow and so will CNP.

All shareholders now should look to get out on a good day. Trading this stock now will be like playing russian roulette. Buying one day and the next day ADY halted and going into administration.

[tricha]

Slow death Dr. Just like AFG and ABS before them. BNB might follow and so will CNP.

All shareholders now should look to get out on a good day. Trading this stock now will be like playing russian roulette. Buying one day and the next day ADY halted and going into administration.

Administration :(, ironore is all over.

[tricha]

Administration :(, ironore is all over.

A dam shame, had billions in potential, but run by an idiot and this bear market did it no favours.
I guess they sold the lithium because no one would have bought the ironore :confused:



Bolivia holds key to electric car future



By Damian Kahya
BBC News, Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45175000/jpg/_45175476_c7e318aa-5f52-46ba-bb9c-11b578dceb1c.jpg Bolivia's lithium reserves could bring wealth to the country


High in the Andes, in a remote corner of Bolivia, lies more than half the world's reserves of a mineral that could radically reduce our reliance on dwindling fossil fuels.
Lithium carries a great promise. It could help power the fuel efficient electric or petrol-electric hybrid vehicles of the future.
But, as is the case with fossil fuels, it is a limited resource.
Lithium carbonate is already in the batteries of laptop computers and mobile phones.
It is used because it allows more energy to be stored in a lighter, smaller space than most alternatives.
And as the auto industry rushes to produce new fuel efficient and electric cars, it too is turning to lithium batteries as its first choice to boost the power of their new models.
GM has one in its new hybrid Volt, Toyota is testing one in its next generation hybrid Prius. Mercedes is testing an electric version of its Smart, while BMW is doing the same with its Mini.
And Nissan-Renault, Mitsubishi and VW are all rushing to buy or produce enough of the batteries to power their future models.
The best of the pure electric cars can reach ranges of more than 150 kilometres per charge.
More is needed
But there is a problem.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif This isn't a magic solution http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Luis Alberto Echazu, Bolivian minister for mining

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Morales defends Bolivia changes (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6958186.stm)


Mitsubishi, which plans to release its own electric car soon, estimates that the demand for lithium will outstrip supply in less than 10 years unless new sources are found.
And they have ended up in Bolivia.
"The demand for lithium won't double but increase by five times," according to Eichi Maeyama Mitsubishi's general manager in La Paz.
"We will need more lithium sources - and 50% of the world's reserves of lithium exist in Bolivia, in the Salar de Uyuni," he adds, pointing out that without new production, the price of lithium will rise prohibitively.
Valuable resource
Lithium is found in rocks and sea water.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45175000/jpg/_45175475_dc6b0e8a-464f-4916-b886-e3f37271031c.jpg Locals fear the benefits will not be passed on


But almost all the commercially exploitable reserves are found in the brine under salt flats.
The world's largest reserves lie in Bolivia at the Salar de Uyuni - in the remote southern Andean plane.
But Bolivia is not a country known to be friendly to foreign industry.
Its socialist president, Evo Morales, is keen to expand state control over its natural resources, a task carried out by Bolivia's minister for mining, Luis Alberto Echazu.
"We want to send a message to the industrialized countries and their companies," Mr Echazu says.
"We will not repeat the historical experience since the fifteenth century: raw materials exported for the industrialisation of the west that has left us poor."
Modest ambitions
Gold, silver, tin, oil and gas have all been found and exported from here whilst the country remains the poorest in the region.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif They probably don't have a lot of experience of doing this sort of thing themselves so they'll have to bring in expertise and technology http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Charles Kernot, mining analyst, Evolution Securities


For President Morales' supporters, that is reason enough not to allow in foreign mining companies to extract the lithium.
Across the flats, freelance miners work to break up the surface salt selling it to passing trucks for just a few dollars.
Indigenous and poor, they are core supporters of the president.
A grizzled old miner, giving his name only as Alfredo, says he does not believe that lithium will ever be extracted.
"We don't want to see foreign companies here," he says.
"It would be very bad, as the government says."
Alfredo's hopes for the future are modest.
"I just want to work until I die" he says, a smile across his face. It is not an uncommon sentiment here.
Sharing the benefits
In spite of the grinding poverty here, attempts in the 1980's and 1990's by foreign companies to extract the lithium met with resistance from the community.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45175000/jpg/_45175477_4ee3830d-3a7c-4c99-a660-887bc4a58ed5.jpg Bolivia is concerned about damage to the environment


They say the money would go elsewhere.
Francisco Quisbert is a local activist with President Morales' party who took part in the resistance.
Now he is working with the president to hammer out a new plan for a state-owned pilot plant on the flats.
"We don't want international involvement," he says.
"This plan has raised the hopes of the region.
"Before our grandparents lived on the salt. They arrived from the valleys in caravans of llamas, but the market forced them to leave.
"We want to return to live on the salar [and] improve our living conditions and to participate in the project."
To begin with the pilot plant will produce no more than 1.2 kilotonnes a year.
If an industrial plant is then built it may increase to around 30 kilotonnes by 2012, - thats just under a third of current production.
But most lithium now goes to small batteries for electronic goods.
Car batteries are far larger and Mitsubishi estimates the world will need 500 kilotonnes a year just to service a niche market. For electric cars to become the norm, it could need far more.
Mitsubishi predicts that there will be a supply shortage by 2015.
Pollution nevertheless
Analysts suspect that Bolivia's government can produce this much.
"Governments in South America have had a very successful history of mining," explains Charles Kernot, a mining analyst at Evolution Securities.
But the question is how fast.
"They probably don't have a lot of experience of doing this sort of thing themselves so they'll have to bring in expertise and technology," Mr Kernot adds.
"That whole process may take a lot longer than people are anticipating."
Consequently, he continues, "the car manufacturers will have to strike a balance between how quickly they manufacture with the supply of metal because they don't want to drive the price up to such an extent that the cars get priced out of the market".
Long-term, Bolivia's government is wary of the environmental damage mass extraction could cause.
The mining minister, Mr Eschazu, has a stark message for Western firms.
"The capitalist leaders have to change," he says.
"If all the world had consumers like North America, everyone with a car, it would grind to a halt. "It is also going to generate pollution, not just from fossil fuels but also from lithium plants, which produce sulphur dioxide. This isn't a magic solution." It is not a view likely to go down well in the offices of Toyota and General Motors.

[SCHUMACHER]

nup, both full of legends and BS lol:D

so was that a net loss on the ADY day trade??? first ever:D

UNDERDOG.....ADY certainly fell like a lead balloon very quickly............i took a loss but not too bad ....as i was trading in the penny dreadfull range .........i have to confess......about a day after phill thomas resigned i phoned the company 3 times that particular day and guess what??? the phone rang and rang and then eventually cut off.......there was no answer machine or dolly bird answering the phone....???? not good PR ,....i havent been back for a trade as i dont believe ADY will be around for much longer.........ONE other point........so if they have divested the LI project, where is the deal? or paperwork to support it??? lots of gaps here and i suspect that anything can happen and it probably will here.........cheers SCHU

[STRAT]

A dam shame, had billions in potential, but run by an idiot .Hi Tricha, That would be a fair call If he is broke but Im willing to bet he isnt even if his shareholders are. So perhaps another word would be more suitable.

[OutToLunch]

Dropped my last few shares this morning for a loss of a bit under 20k. I was fortunate to have made more than that on my original holding, but that was really a matter of luck; had Opes not prompted me to bail in March, I would have been all but cleaned out by now. This has been a *very* salient lesson in risk management, to say the least!

The latest news on RLL smells to high heaven. As far as I can gather, Charge Resources was registered in Melbourne on October 20 2008 and I would not be surprised if we already know the person(s) behind it. More murky dealings, coupled with total silence from the company when attempts are made to contact them, topped with an extra crappy outlook for their remaining major asset (Fe) -- why on earth would one hang onto ADY now except to trade at one's peril.

Will PT still attend the AGM, or did he resign to avoid facing the flying vegetables?

[SCHUMACHER]

oh well ...looks like my prediction may ring true........dosent surprise me if ADY go into administration as they are basically stuffed IMO......now down to 1.5c ...hope others got out ....as TRICIA said , run by amatures.........

[Coruba]

Announcement Out - Seems all maybe not be lost re the lithium.

[STRAT]

PT cant raise the cash to buy the Lithium from himself?

[OutToLunch]

PT cant raise the cash to buy the Lithium from himself?

You'd think he'd have had a letter of credit in his left hand, all ready to pass behind his back to his right hand? Perhaps he dropped it and it blew away....

[Dr_Who]

The plot thickens.

Someone should check if PT and his associates have been selling down ADY shareholding lately. It smells big time!

- The company has entered into a binding contract to sell its shareholding in Rincon Lithium Limited
(“Rincon project”) to Charge Resources Pty Ltd. The sale has not yet settled and the purchaser
has intimated to the company that it may not be in a position to proceed as currently contracted.
Discussions with the purchaser are continuing;

[shasta]

You'd think he'd have had a letter of credit in his left hand, all ready to pass behind his back to his right hand? Perhaps he dropped it and it blew away....

PT is probably negotiating with WISCO for a $40m letter of credit for it...

It's almost/nearly/just about, finalised...:D

[Coruba]

Lmao Shasta

[SCHUMACHER]

UNDERDOG.....ADY certainly fell like a lead balloon very quickly............i took a loss but not too bad ....as i was trading in the penny dreadfull range .........i have to confess......about a day after phill thomas resigned i phoned the company 3 times that particular day and guess what??? the phone rang and rang and then eventually cut off.......there was no answer machine or dolly bird answering the phone....???? not good PR ,....i havent been back for a trade as i dont believe ADY will be around for much longer.........ONE other point........so if they have divested the LI project, where is the deal? or paperwork to support it??? lots of gaps here and i suspect that anything can happen and it probably will here.........cheers SCHU


Well what a shocker folks........a left wing announcement that the deal has basically collapsed .....so im now expecting that they will go into administration as the debt wont be able to be repaid thus the receivers will take over from here..................as i stated in my post above, following PT,s dismissal, that i tried to phone the company 3 times and it just rang and then cut off -was the day i realised that Ady could go into administration.......the only positive is that they still own the LI project..............lol not that makes any difference if they cant pay their 20 million loan .....very sad.....cheers Schu

[The Big Ease]

who wouldve guessed it would come to this? :P

[shasta]

Well what a shocker folks........a left wing announcement that the deal has basically collapsed .....so im now expecting that they will go into administration as the debt wont be able to be repaid thus the receivers will take over from here..................as i stated in my post above, following PT,s dismissal, that i tried to phone the company 3 times and it just rang and then cut off -was the day i realised that Ady could go into administration.......the only positive is that they still own the LI project..............lol not that makes any difference if they cant pay their 20 million loan .....very sad.....cheers Schu

Basically means the likes of WISCO, can come in & demand say 50% of the Iron Ore business (assuming ADY will end up with 100%, they are owed money on it, by there 40% JV partner) & say 20% of Rincon Lithium.

What chance Michael Kiernan via Crawley Investments coming in with a low ball offer :eek:

[Joe King]

Just wondered if any ADY holders here are aware of SH move to takeover Conpany should current negs breakdown. The movement appears to be growing quickly, over 100 subscribers in one day!
Details ADY thread hotcopper or email organiser prescotts@bigpond.com
Cheers
JK

[Yossarian]

going, going....

trading at 0.8 of a cent now...

[KentBrockman]

going, going....

trading at 0.8 of a cent now...

This would almost be hilarious....if it wasn't so sad.

I always thought that APX (nz) has the most incompetent
management around......but these guys beat them by a mile.

[Dr_Who]

I urge the shareholders to check the movement of shares lately. Something smells bad.

[bear]

sale of Rincon Lithium falls over the failure of Charge to come up with the necessary $$

unless shareholders are asked for more this one is dead

bear

[Dr_Who]

1 cents :eek:

[shasta]

1 cents :eek:

Just in case anyone left didn't think PT was only in it for himself :(

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206211

What a disgrace he is :mad:

PT sells more shares

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206228

[SCHUMACHER]

Just in case anyone left didn't think PT was only in it for himself :(

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206211

What a disgrace he is :mad:

PT sells more shares

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206228

P/T ....just another failed MD, in my opinion.....he is alsoa victim to a global slowdown.......although even if the economy was still bubbling along i would have been surprised if he could have landed the 40million deal

[shasta]

P/T ....just another failed MD, in my opinion.....he is alsoa victim to a global slowdown.......although even if the economy was still bubbling along i would have been surprised if he could have landed the 40million deal

The ASX really does need a good old shafting with a broom IMO :mad:

ADY spikes 100% from 1.1c to 2.2c on 126m turnover today & where's the "please explain" notice :confused: (Daily average last week or so, is 5m)

Clearly the leaky ship Admiralty has done it again, & i suspect there is an iron ore contract/offtake agreement/funding finalised ann on it's way...

I bailed out the last of my holding at 11.0 - 11.5c some time ago & haven't looked back, but surely the ASX is still in holiday mode given these circumstances?

ADY has been a bad case of greed & complacency on my part, quick easy money in 2007, & a disaster in 2008, even though i made money overall, it really has to be my worst trade ever...

A bad case of "once too often back to the well"...

Nevermind, we live & learn huh?

[The Big Ease]

Nevermind, we live & learn huh?
where do you think you went wrong in your decision making?

[shasta]

where do you think you went wrong in your decision making?

I only sold 1/3 of my holding at 63c (after buying for 21c 6 weeks earlier).
I should have sold them all!

Later on I then effectively sold another 1/3 at av 42.5...
I should have sold them all!

I then bought back some of what i sold averaging up to ~34c (from 21c)
I should NEVER have bought them back...

I made several mistakes, probably the biggest two i made.

1. I did not stick with my system due to complacency :mad:

2. I had alot of contact with Phillip Thomas & believed in him (i had no reasons to doubt him, when he seemed to be doing all the right things), whereas in theory a CEO should not have that much time to email me during the day!

An expensive lesson, not for any losses suffered, but what profits i stupidly gave back to the market.

[tricha]

Just in case anyone left didn't think PT was only in it for himself :(

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206211

What a disgrace he is :mad:

PT sells more shares

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADY&E=ASX&N=206228

A bit like Robert Jones, the biggest scum bag in NZ.

When the ship was going down he was telling everyone to buy, while he did the opposite :cool:

[shasta]

A bit like Robert Jones, the biggest scum bag in NZ.

When the ship was going down he was telling everyone to buy, while he did the opposite :cool:

...and then wrote books on how he got rich :D:(:mad:

[tricha]

...and then wrote books on how he got rich :D:(:mad:

yep, total piece of work and then he got knighted, what a lot of bloney

P.S PT to the max, a total piece of work.

[soulman]

I only sold 1/3 of my holding at 63c (after buying for 21c 6 weeks earlier).
I should have sold them all!

Later on I then effectively sold another 1/3 at av 42.5...
I should have sold them all!

I then bought back some of what i sold averaging up to ~34c (from 21c)
I should NEVER have bought them back...

I made several mistakes, probably the biggest two i made.

1. I did not stick with my system due to complacency :mad:

2. I had alot of contact with Phillip Thomas & believed in him (i had no reasons to doubt him, when he seemed to be doing all the right things), whereas in theory a CEO should not have that much time to email me during the day!

An expensive lesson, not for any losses suffered, but what profits i stupidly gave back to the market.

I see this beast up another 50%. What a 2 day rise.

Shasta, what you did with ADY, we all have done it so that's actually normal in shares. Of course we all now try to avoid that mistake. Good luck with your system.

[shasta]

I see this beast up another 50%. What a 2 day rise.

Shasta, what you did with ADY, we all have done it so that's actually normal in shares. Of course we all now try to avoid that mistake. Good luck with your system.

The actions of ADY are now borderline criminal...:mad:

Up 1.5c today to 3.7c on 229m volume & the ASX do nothing to the ADY response "we don't know", then they surge afterwards...

About time the ASX grew some teeth/balls & used them

What a disgrace, whats worse ADY for leaking info, or the ASX for standing by & allowing it?

[OutToLunch]

5c now. Doesn't it make you puke. A 400% rise in less than a week on no news whatsoever, at least no news to those not privy to inside information. It's either that, or it's a very bold 'pump and dump' by traders, though the huge volumes don't suggest this.

Stinks to high heaven. Though if you bought at 1c recently on a wing and a prayer, now would surely be the time to cut and run while the going's good (as I should have at 50+c in late 2007...)

[shasta]

5c now. Doesn't it make you puke. A 400% rise in less than a week on no news whatsoever, at least no news to those not privy to inside information. It's either that, or it's a very bold 'pump and dump' by traders, though the huge volumes don't suggest this.

Stinks to high heaven. Though if you bought at 1c recently on a wing and a prayer, now would surely be the time to cut and run while the going's good (as I should have at 50+c in late 2007...)

DYL gets a please explain notice from 11c > 14.5c :eek::eek::eek:

ADY gets?????

It stinks like a dead donkey alright

[Dr_Who]

I no longer own this stock and yet it still makes me sick. :(

I wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole.

[Dr_Who]

Will this dog survive?

Anyone know how much cash they have in the bank, if any?