ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[bear]

Hi all

first time poster ... long time lurker .. been following this little mining company lithium magnesium ...with operations in South america ... current share price 7.6c
2005 eps 1c
2006 eps 6c
2007 onwards eps 20c

target price anywhere between 132c to 244c as per recent valuation report

seems little downside but plenty of potential ... some costs in establishing plant to be funded via convertible notes issue soon ... high volume as you would expect

Bear

discl hold small parcel

[Revhead]

Been watching and trading this one successfully. The report released by co is awesome, so price appears very cheap.

Don't hold any at the moment.

Rev

[OutToLunch]

I have just read their valuation summary (very positive) and also noticed several recent directors' purchases of ADY shares. If management are buying, that's got to be a good sign.

I've picked up a few shares for the bottom drawer and will see what pans out over the next couple of years. I see this as very high risk so have limited my purchase to just a small holding, although potentially this one could be very rewarding. :)

[Damo79]

Wow!! That valuation is so high compared to current cap that I find it hard to believe. I had a flick through the report, but a lot of it went over my head (and it was really long ;)). Can anyone summarise how they came up with the valuation of 133-244c? Do they just estimate value of reserves? Do they even take into account cost of facilities, production, marketing? Could it possibly really be good value even at 10X it's current price?

Damo

PS Bear, where did you get those EPS figures. I couldn't find them?

[Mick100]

Where are you guys getting the info on this one

All I can find on it is the annual report at the website


Mick

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


Where are you guys getting the info on this one

All I can find on it is the annual report at the website


Mick



Found it

[bear]

The basis of the calculations for EPS and Market Cap were produced in recent announcements (from the chairmans report) - all very heavy reading and as i'm no mineral expert was a little OTT for me -nevertheless the numbers were incredible

To my knowledge the earnings are probable and were undertaken and produced for potential investors for the proposed convertible notes to be used for funding extraction, plants etc and secondly to provide an up to date valuation of the resource. Have held for a little while and expected the price to take off following the excellent valuation reports.

One other incredible statements within the reports is that the basin from which the brine resource is extracted is considered to be renewable and will only be depleted or deplete when incoming material is exceeded which is not likely to occur under the current model.

Would appreciate comments from those with more minerals expertise than me

as i said in the title is the perceived risk to high or are there too many unknowns ie very difficult to value as to why its not a higher price

Bear

[Halebop]

I was not aware of this company until I saw your post. I'm far from a mining expert so won't comment on those technicalities but will comment on capital aspects...

Quoted EPS and Per share values are based on 450m shares currently on issue. This does not take into account the 175m or so options plus however many convertable notes needs to be issued at whatever price they might be able to issue them at.

ADY is one of those typical mineral explorer chicken and egg scenarios. Great potential but they need US$50m or so to exploit it. The mostly likely way they'll come up with these readies is through the issue of new shares. At 8 cents this is highly dilutive unless they can ratchet that price up a bit.

Now if they get just enough money the share price could get rerated, the options exercised and the balance borrowed. This probably still requires a good US$20m or so up front. Which in turn needs faith. No news on the convertable notes after 2 months so perhaps Intrepid is finding selling them harder than they thought?

An alternative could be a rights issue but that would require a discount to market or an expensive underwriting arrangement. If at say 6 cents this would result in another 450m or so shares to raise around US$20m, which including options means around 1.075b shares on issue and still a debt load of US$20 to US$30m to contend with.

Still even this scenario could see the shares worth somewhere between 70 cents and $1.00 within 3 years. Without the $50m the company is worth close to nothing.

This one requires quite a leap of faith up front though.

Disclosure: None.

[pago]

too good to be true.suggest you look at the sharescene forum,where there is a healthy debate on this project,and doubt about the credibility of the REPORT calculations,cheers pago.

[bear]

thanks Halebop for those comments ...

the company management has stated that it is trying to avoid issuing new shares because of the dillutionary effect and were even talking about a buy back using convertible note funds ... time is progressing and whilst the final project valuation is only a month old the notion has been around for a while ...would expect to see some more announcements soon ...

[Mick100]

I'm halfway through the report and rapidly losing interest in this one.

One of my "rules of thumb" when it comes to investing is to only invest in things that I understand and i'm struggling with that report so far. I am scientifically inclined as well.
It's almost written in such a way that the author dose not want the reader to be able to understand.

IMO, beware


Mick

[skinny]

Thanks for the heads up bear, the valuation also pricked my interest!

I'm also no geologist but as an economist the major risk of this project is as plain as the nose on your face, i.e. uncertainty over the longer term market price for the most value mineral they aim to mine, lithium chloride (LiCl).

In the NPV estimates capital costs, operating costs, and the discount rate are varied over reasonable ranges to derive IRR's of the project between 25 to 37%. However, throughout it is assumed that the market price of LiCl remains at Aus $4500 per ton, the average price over the past 3 years. This strikes me as very optimistic. First, there has been the strong demand pressure from Asia that is likely to wane a bit over the next 2-5 years. But even if you think the Chinese led Asian growth phenomona has a long way to run yet (I know many here do) the perhaps more important reason to be quite cautious is that the NPV figures are based on production of 12,000 tonnes of LiCl by the 4th year forward - or around 50% of the current WORLD SUPPLY of the mineral. This is a massive expansion and one you would expect should have some influence on the world market price of LiCl! That is, unless other producers of LiCl face steeply declining production schedules and/or there is expected to be steeply increasing world demand it seems very unlikely that the market price would remain anywhere near current levels.

In short, think you need to do a fair bit of research into the LiCl market and perhaps re-calculate the NPV's under lower market prices to get a better feel for the real 'value' in this one.


Edit: went through the sharescene debate, yeah it seems the main concern there is whether the DFC's from lithium are OTT too, esp. given competition from a lower cost Chilean outfit (SQM)

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=734&hl=ady&st=25

[OutToLunch]

Thanks guys, some very valid points here, which is why my own expectations for this share are much lower than the valuation report. As mentioned, the price of lithium is unlikely to be maintained in the face of 12kt of new production coming onto the market so profits are unlikely to be anything like what the report suggested.

For argument's sake let's say on the basis of a falling lithium price alone that ADY will only be worth 1/3 of the low end of the valuation report's valuation. 1/3 of $1.32 is 44 cents. Halve it again to account for the issue of new securities to fund the project (ignoring any talk of no more share issues and the proposed convertible note issue) and you get 22c. Whip off another 1/3 to err on the safe side and you get a bit over 14c. That's still a healthy % gain on current prices. Hence I have decided it is worth taking a very small holding in this co.(<2% of my portfolio) as the upside could be large even after factoring in the potential for this project to fall well short of expectations.

Note that insiders have been buying too and they must surely know something has potential if they're putting their own money into it.

[Packersoldkidney]

Got on. With a stop loss.

[Watson]

had to take a look at this....as previously said ..highly speculative but good resource....like the fact that magnesium is the so called "metal of the future"

Good volume 40 mill thru today

If they can capital raise the money required then ....they are in "big time" and the s/p will go balistic....

[OutToLunch]

All good (speculative) fun. I got some at 0.078 a couple of weeks ago and it's done well since, but so much hangs on a single important announcement to come (re. the $50m capital raising) that it could go either way, and spectacularly so. Definitely not a stock to mortgage the house for but I think it's worth a small fling for the potential upside all the same.

ADY could be at either 2c or 20c in a months' time -- it certainly won't be anywhere near current prices by then.

[Watson]

I agree OTL ....lookslike someone knows something ...stock is getting bought up big time....i expect some profit taking at the close.....if it can hold and close on its highs could make for an interesting day tomorrow

[OutToLunch]

Hi Watson,

Loads of hype surrounding this one -- just have a look at Hotcopper. However my 2c 'worst scenario' estimate for ADY is probably overly pessimistic -- don't forget that Rincon is not their only project, just the one with the largest potential. Talk of their iron ore project is pushing things along too it would seem.

So far, it's only talk though -- let's see some numbers.... :D[xx(][?]

[Packersoldkidney]

Well done to those on. Some big action going on, and on no news. (not, it seems, that released to the public anyway) Fireworks tomorrow if overseas traders get a wind of it overnight.

[OutToLunch]

ADY in trading halt until Wed morning pending an announcement. Here comes a big move -- either up or down... [8D] [:0]

[Packersoldkidney]

Sells are being pulled left, right and centre. Methinks that could be a good sign.

[Packersoldkidney]

O.K., O.K., there's no "could be" about it. Sells being pulled is definitely a good sign. For the long-suffering shareholder like myself (I bought in last week) we may finally, finally, be seeing some upside to ADY.

[bear]

The key to this one PSK and others is what is the target price .... been trying to work this out but alas too many variables .... no doubt the number crunching will occur as soon as any positive announcement is made

nice % gain so far hoping for more

Bear

[whiteheron]

Whew !!!!!!!!!

300 % rise in 2 months --- incredible !!!!!!!

I have obviously missed the boat here

Too risky to climb on at this stage , but will watch with interest

Time will tell

[OutToLunch]

Seems like many punters are anticipating a positive announcement, but in reality most of us have no idea. Either someone on the inside is leaking out some details, or perhaps it's just a case of rose-tinted glasses being put on by a lot of people. On the face of it though it does seem like good news is coming tomorrow. We'll wait and see.

A target price?? Who knows... I'd expect a positive announcement to make the price rocket briefly and then fall back on profit-taking, maybe to 20c?? Of course a negative announcement (quite possible) would pop this wee balloon faster than you could say 'b ugger'....

[combi]

PK I have been watching the sell side since 2.13pm NZ time and 1.5 million have been pulled. Not a huge number but interesting anyway.

Every one is asking where is ADY price going to go, well the truth is no one knows. Having said that if they get there act together (finance in place) this will be a big vote of confidence for there recently stated valuation for the Rincon Salar project $1.73 per share. I have read a number of posters saying it's over the top and of course they are shooting from the hip with a blindfold on.
I'm inclined to accept the independent valuation, but God only, knows what’s true and what’s not.

Even if the valuation is half and all other projects are neutral then there is some serious money to be made, and If all ingredients are right in the announcement then we could see it race above 60c before settling down over the following week.

Combi


P.S. If they don’t get finance in place, then it will get ugly very quickly.
A three, day trading halt would normally be seen as a positive imvho.

[Packersoldkidney]

Guess the 'buy' side tells more of the story, Combi. You in for a quick play, or are ya gonna buy 'n hold on these?

[combi]

quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

Guess the 'buy' side tells more of the story, Combi. You in for a quick play, or are ya gonna buy 'n hold on these?


I'm already holding a lot, and if announcement is up to my expectation I will continue to hold, subject to trends etc.

If a stock treats me well I hold, if not they are dumped without hesitation!

Combi

[Packersoldkidney]

Sounds like my trading strategy!! lol.

[Dazza]

erh .... erh... anyone looked at the market depth?!

buy 17cents... sell 11cents...

looks very bullish to me!

[Packersoldkidney]

ann. out. 20 mill.

[Watson]

PSK...Looks like insiders drove SP north prior announcemnt and are selling.....had to happen ....At least they now have capital to start devlopments...one to put on the watchlist ....cheers W

[Packersoldkidney]

Yeah, Watson. I'm not selling mine!!

[Packersoldkidney]

Come to papa.

[Dazza]

mmmm didnt see it really power up...
am waiting maybe next week to buy up on this...

[Dazza]

are there any long term holders?
can one expect a dimebag on this?

PSK - i note that u seem to be only a trader for this co. wanting a good 1-2 fold?

im tinking more of a longer term, would u guys ie long term holders if there are any.. think this co. have got what it takes?

[Packersoldkidney]

I'm no expert, so don't trust me, but I'm holding this for a while yet, and will get more if it sinks any lower.

[bear]

Does anyone know the details of the financing / convertible notes... unfortunately the release didn't provide the detail or any specific other than the amount... still holding and a little disappointed at the markets reaction ...

I wont be adding until i get more detail ..

Bear

[mercury]

20 million dollars at 10cts per share conversion would be another 200 million shares, which would explain the drop in value to some extent. They may very well have to issue more shares also.
OR am I not reading this right. If I am wrong in this vision, would someone please correct me.
I do not hold.
Mercury

[Packersoldkidney]

spanked.

[Dazza]

i want to invest in this co. yet i have a few questions.

afta the trading halt, i saw some holders ramp up the price offering up to 17cents.... when market opens, they took their buys out , day ended around 11cents with no change, at a high of 14cents.

to me... that is totally unethical esp buy dir. if they were doing that in how they ramped it up like that, esp if it was from the main shareholders etc? i realise a newbie like me... would have put in an offer be4 the market opened at 13cents... go home afta work to see that all those orders were bogus...


also they seem to get income only from loans or shareholders?

are they not earning from their iron ores yet?

[Packersoldkidney]

Hey, Dazza.

The behaviour you describe is fairly standard market like shenanigans, and totally unlinked to the directors. I still hold - and I'm waiting for a bottom in the price to get some more. Like a lot of exploration companies in this current resources boom, you are quite right in saying they get no income from any of their projects as yet. Really what drove the price gains of recent weeks was the valuation placed on the Rincon Salar project by the independent valuers of 'round 1.70 per share. There's no real need for me to ramp the guts out of the company's holdings anymore than what's been done already. You can make up your own mind.

The worrying thing for me today, as a holder, was the price action - a high volume down day (albeit not by much), but with a heavily stacked sell side. I get the feeling if those sells stay sells they will come down a lot closer to the price, and put a barrier on any upward movement for a time. As an accumulator I'm happy to see that because I want the price to come down nearer to my buy zone.

All in all, I'd be watching the price action closely, and maybe be waiting for any definitive break in the price to decide if its time to buy in or not. If you buy at the current price you may find you might have cheated yourself out of a few dollars by not cooling your impatience and waiting for a few sessions before you pull the trigger.

Hope this advice helps. Just remember its free, and you can get that sort of any street corner, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Either way, good luck with it.

Packers.

Edit: incorrect punctuation.

[Packersoldkidney]

This is looking crook, and I've exited my position. I know you can all say: "Packers! You were only giving this a good ol' ramp the other day! What's going on?!"

It's really fairly simple: I'm surprised its stood up this far when I look at the sell side, and there really isn't any accumulation on the other - so why stick with it? I don't this company is a dead duck by any stretch, its just temporarily comatose. Exactly how temporary I've got no idea. Probably tomorrow I'll watch it shoot up several cents - but I doubt it if today's action is any indicator.

[combi]

quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

This is looking crook, and I've exited my position. I know you can all say: "Packers! You were only giving this a good ol' ramp the other day! What's going on?!"

It's really fairly simple: I'm surprised its stood up this far when I look at the sell side, and there really isn't any accumulation on the other - so why stick with it? I don't this company is a dead duck by any stretch, its just temporarily comatose. Exactly how temporary I've got no idea. Probably tomorrow I'll watch it shoot up several cents - but I doubt it if today's action is any indicator.


PK, if it's any consolation I sold out last week when it look like closing below 11.5 which is now upside resistance imo. It could drift back to 8c time will tell. I'm still of the opinion that it has excellent potential but when they only raised $20mil of the $50 mil target that seemed to be the catalyst for the current weakness.

Combi

[lewinsky]

This is looking active again with price up to 13 cents this morning. Anyone got any ideas whats driving this? Volatility certainly keeps the blood running.

[bear]

Finally given this one the flick

nice little earner but too erractic for my liking ... better opportunities around with less risk .. still not convinced of long term viability even with the funding

may look again if things firm up

Bear

[lewinsky]

This may be worth keeping on your radar screen. The price was up another 2 cents yesterday on solid volumes. According to chat on sharescene there is an announcement due this week which could be positive.

[lewinsky]

Another good announcement this morning price now up to 22cents up from 13 cents on 22 February.
Don't have my house on it,but looking good.

[OutToLunch]

Yep, looks very good. If I read the numbers correctly and assume an AUD-USD rate of 0.80 then this agreement is worth at least 5.8 cps to ADY, assuming production and sales at the low end of the range of 1.5 to 3.0 mtpa. Makes ADY a steal at 22c -- or have I made a mistake in my quick calcs?

Disc: Got a few @ 7.8c

Edit: Should clarify that -- my estimate is for annual earnings per share of at least 5.8 cps from this agreement.

[lewinsky]

Haven't had a chance to crunch the numbers but based on yours and now at 24 cents thats a p/e of just over 4. This would seem to be low. Maybe heading into the 30's. Which would make your 7.8 cents entry look more like "outfordinnerandchampagne"

[OutToLunch]

Hi lewinsky,

I've been doing a bit more looking into this and although I thought the number of shares on issue was 407 million, some claim it is fact 1.5 times this. Not sure where the extra shares are, does this relate to a recent capital raising? Anyway I haven't time to check this out but if that's the case then water my ebit figure above down to about 3.9 cents. Apply a p/e of, say, 6, and you get a share valuation of 23.4 cents. This places no value on the Rincon project and so I can at least be happy that the current price is justified even after today's big rise -- remember that my estimate is based on the lowest end of the 1.5-3 mtpa range given in the sales agreement so we could potentially double this valuation.

I'm happy to hold this one & let it run for a while, especially now that the SP is supported by some more tangible numbers.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by lewinsky

Haven't had a chance to crunch the numbers but based on yours and now at 24 cents thats a p/e of just over 4. This would seem to be low. Maybe heading into the 30's. Which would make your 7.8 cents entry look more like "outfordinnerandchampagne"


Suspended! Seems that they didn't get their half yearly report in on time. Maybe it's something to do with them having next to nothing in the kitty. Never a dull moment with this one.

"outforbakedbeansontoast" [xx(]

[Halebop]

Management must be idiots. The share price in uptrend for several months and they shoot themselves in the foot with something 100% controllable.

I'm not a fan of ADY but delaying the report increases focus on its (eventual) contents. As a junior explorer the contents aren't likely to be full of good news so why divert attention there?

Quite silly.

[OutToLunch]

Agreed -- quite silly. Or smelly.

Rumour on HC has it that the report will be out today, and that the delay is related to a delay in the audit process. Not exactly inspiring really is it. Oh well, easy come easy go with this type of share which is why I only bought a small stake to start with. Would have been nice to have sold yesterday!

[OutToLunch]

Half yearly report released & it makes for ominous reading -- ADY are walking along a very thin tightrope by the looks of things. The tin is nearly empty and they will need to raise funds to meet ongoing commitments before revenue from their projects comes in. Boy you gotta love the volatility in this one!

Edit: Of course that was all before the recent $20m capital raising, so maybe things are more positive than that. Of course now that the share price is several hundred % higher than it was a while ago, future capital raisings won't be so dilutive either. ADY now have a committed revenue stream, which should help them raise any funds needed to get things going.

Nearly sold mine yesterday but I think I'll sit tight instead and see how it pans out.

[Moonshine]

Anyone got the headsup as to what is happening here?

Is there some news due out shortly?

Up 17% in early trade, solid support at 10c.

[Watson]

Well looks like ADY heading back up after a torrent rollercoaster ride
just got order filled at 11.5 in the nick of time judging by the small rally...hopefully it will last a few days

one big buyer created the move...they took out around 1 million shares ...good to see traders possibly back to manipulate SP north...or other scenario is that within a week there will be some news on the JORC resourse upgrade and additional funding .....this stock WILL be a winner if they achieve production as early as september quarter....as i predicted on another site, the SP will be 38c by december....forget the traders and buy LOOONG............this is not a recommendation to buy or sell but my own opinion on the potential of ADY

On the chart front it is good to see it bounced of 11c as it would have been a nightmare to break below 11c as it would have hit its long term trendline going back to december 04

The stock has achieved a higher low than previous share value on the 18 april where it hit 9.3c and hopefully it will clear 13c resistence...
For those who dont know , the director Phill Thomas was interviewed by wall street journal about the future and potential of ADY ..Phil was quoted in saying that the SP would be valued between 50-60c per share based on EPS of 3-5c per share... nice bit of exposure ...looks like Bell Potter have been buying in the last few months....i would not expect this to get back to 10-11c now if the investment community believe in the potential ... wait and see but imin for the long term...cheers W

[Watson]

Bit of a rally today...hit 14c and a possible change in trend direction ....good to see. needs to hold up at the close though....volume picking up

[Watson]

Im supprised no one is talking about this one....it has broken its downtrend and looks very good...volume up today on announcement of IRON ORE updates /startdates etc.......it is all go and is a good one to hold until they realise their returns in the medium term...production for supply contract starts sept-october and will be shipped out early november.........watch this one .

EPS 3-5C

[Watson]

forgot to mention.hit 15.5c and is settling in around 15c.if it can hold we may see another move up tomorrow...next fib resistence 16c

[clearasmud]

These guys are getting close to proving to the market that they do have a big future.

Am watching with interest

[Moonshine]

What exactly do you think they are going to announce clearasmud?

[clearasmud]

All im saying is the company is expecting big cash flows that the market is not believing.
That may change...

[Krustytheclown]

Hi all,

I have been a "sometimes watcher" of Admiralty Res' for a couple of years and missed some really great trades because I was committed elsewhere when the buying looked really cheap.

This time (last week) I put a few coins into ADY at what can only be described as cyclical best buying prices.

Added to my decision was a fund buying ADY at 9.5c Aussie...then then the spectre of shipments of Iron ore in a few months and the Lithium deposits (BIG demand with Battery cars now BOOMING business + glass making) + their other prospecting and developments on the go- check their latest Qty activities. The Management is not perfect and has made blunders in the past -being a considered negative.

All in all I believe a purchase sub 10.5c -a good deal. A great trading stock -no doubt with minerals boom.
Wild rides expected over the next four months with first Iron ore shipments likely.
Im excited .....what about yourselves?

G.

[SCHUMACHER]

this stock has shared the highs and lows....been out of this one since it hit 21c ....seems a long climb back to that level .....i remember when phill thomas did that interview with wall street journal and catogorically stated that he expected the shareprice to be trading around 50c by the coming xmas .....boy was he wrong.....put it this way ...if the director cant predict the shareprice how would an inexperienced investor /trader do so.....good luck to all that hold hope it comes to something....even though i got out when ADY was hot its still on my watchlist...purely due to curiousity cheers WATSON

[OutToLunch]

Topped up this morning at 9.8c to go with my original holding at 7.8c. While it's risky and management have stuffed up along the way, I think it's worth getting on for the ride. Esp as it looks like IO shipments won't be too far away now. Question is, how long will their cash last... long enough for IO revenue to come in??



quote:Originally posted by gregoroius

Hi all,

I have been a "sometimes watcher" of Admiralty Res' for a couple of years and missed some really great trades because I was committed elsewhere when the buying looked really cheap.

This time (last week) I put a few coins into ADY at what can only be described as cyclical best buying prices.

Added to my decision was a fund buying ADY at 9.5c Aussie...then then the spectre of shipments of Iron ore in a few months and the Lithium deposits (BIG demand with Battery cars now BOOMING business + glass making) + their other prospecting and developments on the go- check their latest Qty activities. The Management is not perfect and has made blunders in the past -being a considered negative.

All in all I believe a purchase sub 10.5c -a good deal. A great trading stock -no doubt with minerals boom.
Wild rides expected over the next four months with first Iron ore shipments likely.
Im excited .....what about yourselves?

G.

[Krustytheclown]

OTL...you got a sizeable another chunk at 250k...good fortunes to you!

I hope we can all enjoy a great ride over comming months!

Regards,
G.

[OutToLunch]

Crikey no Gregor, I only picked up 25k to bring my holding up to 40k. Just a wee punt as I view it as higher risk than many. 250k would have been nice, but I'd rather keep my neck in and sleep well at night!

Having said that, I wouldn't have topped up if I thought it was a pure gamble.... it does sound like ADY are quietly getting their act together in the background & the spec traders have mostly bu ggered off in the meantime. Roll on August!

[clearasmud]

Bgt a few today .

Agreed somewhat risky but what potential!

Lets get up close to Philip Thomas http://www.topstocks.com.au/ceo_spotlight.php?action=summary&ceoid=4

"pe 20-30 for an industrial company "
and huge resourse extention potential for the ion ore project

What really is amazing of course is the potential demand and uses for the lith cloride

Martin Place Securities has ADY as a strong spec buy

[Krustytheclown]

Wow.... ADY are set to move that iron ore midyear as planned....as released today.
I flicked a few very of the spec JRV's today (recent bolter) and got a few more of the unloved (morning atliest!) ADY at 8.5c.....then rip my nighty the ann' came out that the scheme was principally on track and by midyear -dirt will move.

Pricing for sales contracts will conclude as soon the Iron ore Majors have released new sales deals/prices.

ADY is still at the lowest trading range as is one to watch as soon as some ORE is sold.

G.

[clearasmud]

Good buying Greg!
Topped up at 10c.:)

Also have you checked out INL (intec)
This co has upside like ADY but with even less risk imo.
Also check out GUN (gunson) if you haven,t already
I have some of both.

Regards,
Eric

[Krustytheclown]

Will check you suggests...I finally have some funds freed from some laid low stocks that the surging gold/minerals price has discovered.
-GUN could be a goodie on dips....INL seems to be in spike mode.....ADY looks goods by quick measure...Thanks.

ADY 12-15c.... within weeks?..a good chance I think.

Cheers,

G.

[OutToLunch]

This is the best ann to come out of ADY for a while -- proof to anyone who was doubting that there are definitely things going on behind the scenes, and coming to fruition very soon now. Wonder what price they'll get for their IO shipments? Time to hang on for the ride! :D[8D]

[OutToLunch]

Fark -- check out the lithium announcement just released. Hang on!! [:0]

[leecoker]

managed to get a slice of the pie this morning at 10.5 cents before the announcement :)

[OutToLunch]

Found this on HC -- nothing like a little suspense..... [:p]

--
Admiralty sweating on iron ore talks

Michael Vaughan
Thursday, May 11, 2006

ADMIRALTY Resources will be aiming to achieve a price of about $US40 per tonne for production from its Chilean iron ore project when the first shipment of fines leaves the Port of Caldera in June.



Admiralty managing director Phillip Thomas told MiningNews.net the company was awaiting the conclusion of the current iron ore price negotiations between China's Baosteel and major iron ore producers BHP Billiton and Brazil's CVRD before locking in prices.

Thomas said he expected to see a rise of around 10% at the conclusion of the negotiations.

Admiralty's 50%-owned subsidiary, Compania Minera Santa Barbara, the operator of the Chilean iron ore project, has an agreement with US-based Cometals to purchase 1.5-3 million tonnes of iron ore per annum from the project over a minimum five-year period.

The company has seen a slippage in its schedule after a 350m by 100m concrete platform needed to be redesigned to cope with the vibrations from the processing facilities.

The 3Mtpa twin line processing plant will now come online in early September, rather then July as first anticipated.

Meanwhile, Admiralty has raised $US500,000 ($A648,000) through the placement of about 7 million shares at A9.5c each with a "major US funds manager". US-based Cornell Capital Partners has also subscribed for 433,000 shares at A9.57c each to provide Admiralty with about $A41,000.

Admiralty says it expects to see more US institutional investors buying shares on market and assisting with future capital needs.

Meanwhile the company says a report from K-UTEC, the German engineering group working on its Rincon Salar polymetallic brine project in Argentina, has indicated Admiralty will be able to produce 17,000t of lithium chloride and lithium carbonate from five square kilometres of evaporation ponds.

The increased production will not require any additional capital cost but will result in increased revenue of $US71.4 million per annum, up from $US50.4 million.

Three K-UTEC engineers will visit the site in June to assist with construction of a pilot plant.

Shares in Admiralty gained 1.1c (12.4%) yesterday and were unchanged at 10c in morning trade.

[OutToLunch]

Some rough numbers off the top of my head.

125k tonnes of iron ore per month is 1.5m tonnes per year. If ADY get US$40 per tonne, that's US$60 million in revenue.

Add lithium production at US$71 million that makes US$131 million. Add about US$9 million for potash to get US$140 million per year in revenues. Or about AU$190 million roughly speaking.

Question is, what will ADY's costs be? For argument's sake, let's assume costs are 2/3 of revenue. That leaves AU$63 million -- whip off 1/3 for tax and we get AU$41 million NPAT. Divide into 554-odd million shares to get EPS of 7.4cps. At a PE of 8, that's a share price of about 60 cents or about 5x the current price.

This is very crudely calculated off the top of my head without too much pause for thought, just to get an idea of what ADY might be worth. Seems rather too good to be true?? What do others think?

[leecoker]

OTL i like the look of your rough calculations, im just working on a gut feeling that this one will be a winner! but certainly this stock is under-priced at the moment and the next few months will be interesting

[clearasmud]

Thats right why shouldn't they win.
They have been working day and night to develop their assets and for us as share holders.

Its comforting to know that Philip Thomas is a top 20 shareholder.

I suspect that this run has just begun.

[OutToLunch]

Mmm.... I should revise that calc to account for options and convertible notes on issue. So, add roughly 330 million shares for the 110 million 10c options and 20m $10 convertible notes (I am assuming that the notes are convertible to 100 shares each at 10 cents -- can't find the terms for these). That makes 884 million shares, so divide $41 million NPAT into 884 million shares to get EPS of 4.6 cents, which gives a share price of about 39 cents at a PE of 8. Still well over 3x the current share price. Of course ADY's costs could well be less than my guess of 2/3 of revenue -- any suggestions?

Edit: Should have added 310 million shares, not 330 million... never mind, that's close enough for a wild guess. [:p]

[clearasmud]

I couldn't find anything on those notes either.Probably doesn't affect valuations too much.

[OutToLunch]

I put in another bid at 10.5 cents this morning, slightly below market -- taking the view that if it got filled it would be a bonus. This afternoon I got them, thanks to traders closing out for the week... now to sit back and watch things go from here! :D[:p]

[Mick100]

Just looking at a chart the other day and it appears ADY have had a couple of false starts. Let's hope they're away this time.
Bought a few this week.
.

[leecoker]

Is there any other forums that follow this stock more closely?

[clearasmud]

Hi,
Try hotcopper.com.au or Sharescene.com

Regards.

BTW I still hold

[OutToLunch]

I'm going in for some more -- this news has to be good for ADY! [:p]:D

>>Chinese bow to iron ore hike
Andrew Trounson and Andrew White, Commodities
June 21, 2006
CHINESE steel mills last night bowed to the inevitable and accepted a 19 per cent hike in annual iron ore prices in the face of unflinching pressure from the world's three biggest producers - Brazil's CVRD, and Anglo-Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.
The cave-in by China's steel mills brings to a close the longest price negotiation in history as Beijing struggled in vain to leverage its position as the world's largest iron ore market to wrest control of the negotiations away from the Japanese and European steel industries that have been the traditional price-setters.

China had been shocked and angered the previous year when the Japanese industry accepted a massive 71 per cent price rise as soaring steel production caught the world short of iron ore.

The Chinese mills insisted that prices should rise no further after a fall in the steel market squeezed the mills.

China is the largest iron ore market in the world, estimated by Australia's Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics to account for as much as 44 per cent of seaborne iron ore trade.

But pressure mounted in recent weeks as other major markets including Europe, Korea and Japan agreed to the 19 per cent price hikes.

China's official Xinhua newsagency reported the hike had been agreed with lead negotiator BaoSteel last night, and BHP Billiton confirmed it in a statement to the London Stock Exchange. Rio and CVRD were expected to conclude deals within days.

The 2005 contracts ran out in April and the new contracts will be back-dated to then.

Australia exports about $18billion worth of iron ore every year so the hike in prices is expected to add more than $3 billion a year to revenues for Australia's big miners, led by BHP and Rio.

It will come as a welcome fillip to the big miners, which have been among the worst hit stocks following massive sell-offs in the commodity and share markets since their May peaks.

As talks this year dragged on beyond the official April 1 contract start date and the iron ore market remained tight in the face of continued strong Chinese steel production, the Europeans and Japanese finally began accepting CVRD's demand for a 19 per cent rise, with German steel mill Thyssen Krupp the first to settle.

Rio and BHP later confirmed they had struck the same deal with major Japanese steel makers. The protracted negotiations strained relations between China and the three major producers that between them control over 70 per cent of the world seaborne trade in iron ore.

At one stage there was talk that the traditional annual contract system could be undermined, with speculation that a defiant China would turn to the spot market that is mostly supplied by Indian iron ore.

But with spot prices also high and Indian supplies curtailed by government export taxes aimed at saving iron ore for India's own steel industry, the spot market in the end was not an option.

Prices for imported Indian iron ore have risen to $US73-$US74 a tonne, compared with less than $70 a tonne in mid-May, before the first steel mill agreed to the 2006 term prices, Reuters reported.

Domestic Chinese iron ore prices have risen to between 640 ($109) yuan and 650 yuan a tonne in the last two weeks, up 40-50 yuan. In the northeast, where port stocks of iron ore are still ample, prices are lower at 530 yuan a tonne, up 20 yuan.

And with the steel mills needing price certainty, the miners knew it was only a matter of time before the Chinese settled.

However, amid some forecasts for iron ore prices next year to pull back by 20 per cent, the Chinese are unlikely to show any mercy to the miners when the market turns in their favour.

[kline]

Finally, ADY seems to be sticking to the plan.We'll probably see good things coming up shortly after the first shipment and the JORC.
Once the cashflow from iron ore is established, this will help the Rincon Salar to provide additonal revenue.
From there, IMO,ADY will start handsomely reward the long waiting shareholders.

[Dazza]

im in today at 10cents

will review this in 7-9 months time

i expect it to reach martin securities 30cent+ target by then .

till then!

[Mick100]

12 July 2006
Company Announcements Office
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

ADMIRALTY RESOURCES MAKES FIRST SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE

The board of Admiralty Resources NL is pleased to announce that its 50% joint venture partner, Cia Minera Santa Barbara has made its first sale and shipment of magnetite iron ore to the Holcim Group of Companies. Holcim is one of the world’s largest concrete manufacturers with EBIT that exceeded CHF 1.8 billion in 2005.
While terms of the sale are confidential, the price was at current market levels consistent with the recent price increases received by the major international producers and it was sold on an FOB basis ex the mine.
In a separate development, Santa Barbara has had keen interest from road constructors seeking supply of iron ore waste gravels. These road constructors were successful in bidding for the construction of a highway between Vallenar, where the mine is located and Copiapo which is close to the port of Caldera.
We expect to be able to generate additional revenues from the sale of waste gravels on closing a contract for supply.
It was noted that good progress is being made with installation of the twin line plant and approximately US$4m will be spent over the next month to ensure large scale production commences as soon as possible.

Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director
Admiralty Resources NL
[t] +61-3-96701838
[f] +61-3-9670 1898
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au

[OutToLunch]

Good good. Picked up some more last week at 9.3 in anticipation of good times to come. And the more I read about the rise of the hybrid car and the consequent demand for lithium (never mind that ADY are already talking to the Japs about their lithium), well... it all sounds good. :)

[Mick100]

OTL
Don't forget about the 20,000 tonnes per month of potash.
I think they may end up getting quite a bit more for the potash than they have budgeted on.
Demand for potash is set to increase over the long term while supply is limited.
,

[OutToLunch]

Thanks Mick.

I don't know much about potash but a bit of googling turned this up, for the sake of background (see below, taken from http://magazine.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/commentarystory/GIGOLD/20050706/magallentuck0706/GIGOLDMAG/home).

Say ADY can get USD125 a tonne for potash (that was last year's price according to the article) -- that makes another 30 mill a year in gross revenue, on top of IO and lithium revenues. Mmmmmmmm.... sounds better all the time!! :D[:p]

Article text:
>>WINNIPEG (GlobeinvestorGOLD) — Potash has morphed from a dowdy child of the commodity markets into a product that is — from a financial point of view — downright glamorous. More than a decade ago, shares of Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, the world's largest producer of the mineral, languished at $6 (U.S.) shortly after the stock's initial public offering in November, 1989.

This year, after a remarkable year of growth that has seen the share price double, the stock hit $106.67, following a two-for-one stock split in 2004. Potash Corp. has become a growth stock with a back story about insatiable world demand for fertilizer.

Recently the stock has traded at $96 on the New York Stock Exchange (POT-N) and at $118 (Canadian) in Toronto.

Consensus forecasts for Potash Corp.'s profit for 2006 — it reports in U.S. dollars on a calendar year basis — are $6 (U.S.) a share, up from what CIBC World Markets has projected as $4.70 to $4.89 a share for 2005 and $2.77 of record for 2004.

Investors in Potash Corp. stock are really buying a commodity story, for 90 per cent of price moves of the stock are explained by the commodity's price, noted CIBC analyst Jacob Bout. He predicted in a June 19 report that the commodity would rise in price from $143 to $156 per tonne by 2006. Potash inventories are still at historically low levels and producers are running flat out, he said. Potash accounted for $423-million of the company's gross margin in 2004, compared to $243-million for nitrogen and a modest $16-million for phosphate, its other products. Potash Corp.'s story remains potash.

Behind the switch in the fortunes of the company, which suffered a massive loss of $412-million (U.S.) in 1999 when the company was hit with costs of shutting down nitrogen fertilizer plants in Iowa and Nebraska, is the rosy outlook for potash. The company's 2004 annual report called the global outlook "very optimistic," based on anticipated increases in Chinese purchases and sturdy economic growth around the world. Prices for crops that are fertilized with potash are strong, the report noted. As well, world grain prices, which fell on a bumper crop in 2004, should rise in 2005, the report added. Farmers around the world have more money to spend, they can afford more fertilizer, and the world's eager bellies should boost soil nutrient use in the United States, the company's largest market, by 1 or 2 cent, the report added.

Bill Doyle, Potash Corp.'s president and chief executive, is confident that his company, which he calls "an 18-year overnight sensation," will sustain its growth. The corporate mantra makes it almost certain. "We went from being driven by the desire to maximize market share under the government owner to being driven by profits and shareholder interest," he explained.

It's been a tough evolution, for the company's price languished until beginning a remarkable rise in April, 2004. In the 15 years in the wilderness, it was hard to make money churning out potash, Mr. Doyle notes.

"We never planned on the collapse of the former Soviet union. It was the largest consumer of potash in the world. In 1989, they used 14 million metric tonnes. In 1993, after the collapse [of the Soviet regime], they consumed only 200,000 tonnes. Those almost 14 million tonnes had to have a home. The Russians wanted foreign exchange, they had an abundance of potash and their costs in rubles were negligible. To get hard currency, they began to dump into our markets.

"We could have taken them on, but it would have destro

[Packersoldkidney]

Have to admit this is one of those stocks I can't work out why it is languishing where it is. I wouldn't trade this with someone elses money....long term however ADY looks like a good punt.

[clearasmud]

Thats it, its a good punt hence the 75m market cap.
Still plenty of traders in this stock.

Wondering when the iron ore business will run at full scale?
That will impact the sp.

[Krustytheclown]

I got hit and picked up a few of these again.....great trading stock!

When will the market allow this stock to get out of its range trading???
Its operations all look to be comming together and production is occuring and or imminent on other fronts....Gees it cheap....But why?

G.

[Mick100]

interview with Phil Thomas on boardroom radio


http://www.brr.com.au/event/ADY/742/12447/wmp/44ji5rf96h
,

[SCHUMACHER]

Bit of a repeat interview he did 2 years ago for "Wall Street Journal"
whereby he said the shareprice should be trading at around 50c based on projected earnings...mmm

anyway the recent interview highlights an exciting 18 months ahead , especially the Lithium project. Thats where the real value lies and once they get close to producing and have a few supply contracts in place , the shareprice will be at least double its current value.
A bit conservative but realistic gains of 100% inside 18 months
not bad at all
Patience required here
cheers W

[OutToLunch]

Certainly there's more upside than downside risk with this one. The lithium is the big sleeper as I see it, and once they get some supply contracts on board we'll be away. I've put in a bid for another 100k.

Edit: Got 'em at 9.4. No more purchasing for me, I've got enough now. It seems like the rest of the market is asleep... but when they finally wake up to ADY's potential future revenue streams, I reckon she'll do nicely. :)

[Moonshine]

It certainly is hard to figure out why ADY is still so cheap.

Management seem to have a bit of a past/reputation according to some, so perhaps investors are actually waiting for the fact this time, rather than buying the rumours/goals...?

Chart looks tightly coiled to me and a breakout above 12c would see her fly.

Fundamentals look better each month, and current Fe situation is enough to warrant further SP appreciation. Lithium is definately another story, and there will be plenty of radars tracking that story.

Looking to go long.

Cheers,

Moonshine

[OutToLunch]

And down she goes... just my luck! [xx(]

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

And down she goes... just my luck! [xx(]


don't worry I'm the same ave 9.9c.
This should be a good long term investment but not betting the farm.

dyor.

[OutToLunch]

Yeah no worries, it's just funny how the moment I buy into anything it seems to be the kiss of death!

I have about a 2-year timeframe with this one, and expect it should be around 15-20c by the end of this calendar year on the back of iron ore mainly. Looking for 30-40c hopefully further out, with possibly more upside than that depending on lithium prices attained (if everything goes to plan). I certainly haven't put the farm on ADY but think it's well worth sticking my neck out a little bit for. We'll see!

[OutToLunch]

Found this on HC. I wonder what makes a 'distressed seller'? Margin traders running around with their arses on fire maybe? Hopefully this is the main reason behind ADY's incomprehensibly low share price... if so it means we're due for liftoff shortly. Strap in!

>>Posted on another site today
by chomp

good day
Phil
Will ady be releasing a updated brokers report considering ady is further down the track from when the first report was done and now we have aquired some 7000 hectares and what upside does the company feel this land would bring.The market for some reason is not or seems to be not interested in what ady are saying or doing.its becoming very fraustrating
thanks.
dave
Response From Phillip:

Yes, I believe martin securities has released their report with a price target of 32 cents, and BBY is currently doing an update.

Unfortunately three distressed sellers have sold 60 million shares inot the market - one has some more to go but fortunately the institutions have been picking them up.

The market is keenly interested in what we have to say. There was over 600 hits on the radio broadcast yesterday and we broke the record for the largest number of hits on day one.

The new website is nearly finished but it is still getting hundreds of hits per week.

regards


Phil

[OutToLunch]

Ah what the hell... I decided to pick up some more at 9.3 at lunchtime today. The potential for a recovery from this absurd level just looks too good to resist! [:p]:)

[Mick100]

Good stuff OTL

you are single handidly maintaining a floor in the shareprice of ADY - keep it up

I'v got an ave buy price of 10.5c
.

[Dazza]

funny enough im in this too :P at 10 cents.

hehe

iron ore shipments are away, will give it 9 months before i review my purchase.

yah :D

i mean come on its producing iron now aint it, its gonna get re-rated soon i hope...

[richierich]

I am pretty new here on the ASX... used to trade in the US markets and also a little in the Asian markets as well as in NZ... selling all my shares in the US cos of the time difference it is a bit hard to keep an eye on the market.

Just got some ADY at 9.3 cents... lets see how she goes...

[Jess9]

Anyone have the most up to date total diluted issued capital figure?

R. Trend still looks a bit dodgy ATM... IMO, but you're call... maybe its hit rock bottom today and tomorrow is the turnaround.

[Jess9]

Hold that thought...post 27 June 2006 (conv notes adjustment etc), approx. 752m shares on issue, and 109.8m Nov 07 options.

Seems a bit high.

[OutToLunch]

It does seem high, but in the context of projected revenues and the current share price it still looks like a good buy. My rough calcs are: IO revenues of US$30 mill (ADY's 50% share of revenues at US$40/tonne with production at 1.5Mtpa; note I forgot to halve IO revenues last time I did some numbers) -- note that 1.5 Mtpa is at the low end of ADY's estimate of 1.5-3Mtpa of IO production). Add lithium revenues of US$71 million and potash revenues of US$30 million. Total projected revenues US$131 million, based on a conservative lithium price and probably a conservative IO price too. Assuming an AUD-USD rate of 0.75, that's about A$175 million in gross revenues.

I have no idea of what ADY's costs might be but if we divide gross revenue by 4 to account for costs, tax, etc that still eaves 44 million, or about 5.1 cents EPS based on a total issued capital of 862 million shares. That puts ADY on a forward-looking P/E of 1.8 at a share price of 9.2 cents. I've tried to err on the conservative side here with my figures but even so it makes ADY look bloody cheap at current prices.

Of course the arse end could fall out of the market in the meantime (imagine if ADY had just been a couple of years ahead of its current state of development!), but even so the conservative nature of ADY's lithium revenue estimates in particular will act as a buffer. I read somewhere recently that lithium prices would have to fall by 65% to reduce ADY back to break-even on that project. Given the increasing demand for lithium re. hybrid cars and the like, especially as oil prices escalate, then a 65% fall in the lithium price doesn't seem that likely for the time being, barring a catastrophe.

My number are very rough and I'm defintiely no expert, so feel free to correct/update/rubbish my estimates if you think I'm wide of the mark...

[kline]

OTL, your numbers are even more conservative than mine.It appears to me that someone is trying to put a cap of large selling orders at 10-11c so can accumulate below 10.
I can't explain the current prices otherwise.
I'm trying to free up some $ at the moment to accumulate some more at the current prices

[evedder]

All the fans of ady have gone quiet - still on my watchlist.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by evedder

All the fans of ady have gone quiet - still on my watchlist.


I'm still here, still holding. ADY is an absolute bargain at these levels and if I hadn't already stuffed my suitcase full of ADY shares I'd be getting more. Trading volumes are very low now, relatively speaking and it's more a matter that the market seems to have lost interest in the ADY story than anything else. ADY used to have millions of shares stacked up at each level on market depth and now it's thinned out considerably as people have lost interest and moved on to the latest hot tip. Once we see some firm contracts/revenues in place, the punters will no doubt flood back in and I doubt that we'd ever see anything under 10c again. It's just a matter of sitting and waiting, maybe for a few more weeks/months....

Disc: My average buy price 9.4 cents (current market price 8.9 cents)

[clearasmud]

Bgt a few more today at 8.7c.Ave now 9.7c
Anybody feeling nervous?

[Spruiker]

I bought more yesterday, but could have got them cheaper today... they'll just have to stay in the closet for a while.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by clearasmud

Bgt a few more today at 8.7c.Ave now 9.7c
Anybody feeling nervous?


Not nervous, just a bit bored with this one while it wallows around doing nothing. Volumes are relatively low; when we get news we'll be onto a winner. In the meantime not much point watching things too closely. No doubt a few nervous or bored holders have started quitting but there's no stampede for the exits as far as I can see. I've got enough ADY already otherwise I'd be loading up on this bargain!

[evedder]

I decide to buy this stock as a spec a month or so back. I thought I was a bit stupid but I must have seen some potential at the time....

As there are some OK announcement lately and a bit price movement and some volume coming back!!! However the question in my mind is does ADY have potential or should I grab my small gains and run to the hills!

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by evedder

I decide to buy this stock as a spec a month or so back. I thought I was a bit stupid but I must have seen some potential at the time....

As there are some OK announcement lately and a bit price movement and some volume coming back!!! However the question in my mind is does ADY have potential or should I grab my small gains and run to the hills!



I reckon stick wiv 'em. Patience required. This co. is well on the way to full production, with major booms in iron ore AND lithium prices happening at the same time! I'm holding all of my shares, that's for sure. Some sellers seem to be using today's announcement to get out, probably through a lack of patience after recent underperformance by the share price. But the future looks very bright, in my opinion, barring a major crash in commodity prices.

[OutToLunch]

What do you posters/shareholders think of the proposal to award Phil up to 37.5 million 10c options? I've commented on Sharescene that while he certainly deserves rewarding for getting ADY to where it is now, sticking his snout in the trough for a cackload of cheap options is not the way to do it. I'd have supported options at 20c, but not as cheap as 10c. I'm voting against this one.

What do other shareholders think?

See also a discussion on HC about this -- there are plenty of dissenting voices out there.

[clearasmud]

I think that its quite normal in Australia to do this.
Although I would prefer to see a slightly higher price

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

What do you posters/shareholders think of the proposal to award Phil up to 37.5 million 10c options? I've commented on Sharescene that while he certainly deserves rewarding for getting ADY to where it is now, sticking his snout in the trough for a cackload of cheap options is not the way to do it. I'd have supported options at 20c, but not as cheap as 10c. I'm voting against this one.

What do other shareholders think?

See also a discussion on HC about this -- there are plenty of dissenting voices out there.


I agree OTL

I think it's way over the top - too many and too cheap
,

[OutToLunch]

I see that Phil has just bought another 500,000 shares.

Great news, normally, but.... hang on, isn't he about to award himself millions of cheap options? What better way to silence dissenters than to buy some shares at market before the vote is taken at the AGM? Sorry Phil, but I'm a bit suspicious of this move even though, on the surface, it's great that you're buying shares on-market.

Am I being too cynical here?

[bullebak]

Maybe not, OTL. Many directors clearly place their own interest above that of other shareholders.

Maybe we should ban the practise of issuing options and shares to directors (by law). If anything is to be issued let it be to all shareholders alike. Directors will proportionally benefit.

They have already a vested interest by way of a relatively large shareholding usually from the time the company was floated.

I'll also vote against it (if I can find the proxy form).

[clearasmud]

Found this on another site: Very Interesting take form the CEO of this company!!


Dear Phillip,

noting the general meeting at the enclosed information sent I wish to point a personal view that may well be shared by many current holders of ADY.

The recent releases and the forward movement of the company of late has brought about some positive change in investor confidence in ADY and specially when the CEO himself is buying back into the stock in recent times.

However I believe the dilution with the expected 37M options at such a cheap exercise price could only reverse the hard work achieved so far. I believe this to be excessive in nature and very cheap buy into the stock in future.

I do understand that hard work can not go unnoticed however a more reasonable amount at a higher exercise rate would not impact negatively in the short term as I see this may occur.

As an investor in ADY for the last 2 years I believe in it and am holding to the roller coaster ride so far and hopefuly will not give up on the vision too soon.

i wish to bring this very strong sentiment forward and advise that I will not be voting in favor of this unless it is more realistic.

Would appreciate your comments when free.

Kindest Regards
Traph

Response From Phillip:

Thanks for your comments. I have to respond in full - probably not what you wanted.

The Board has concluded that I have substantially exceeded my performance KPI's. Some of these include, renegotiating the Convertible note saving the company $2m in interest, expanding our tenements by 17 fold from 421 hectares to 7,421 hectares (at no cost), (remember in 30 hectares we have 32 million tonnes of ore grading 23%) building the lithium process for less than USD$500,000 ( FMC spent $31m and about three years), building the 100,000 tonnes per mth plant in 52 days, getting our environment permit through in the mine in 90 days (Barrack have been at it for more then six months), and the port permit in six months (can take 18 months in Chile), negotiating with the Argentinian government NOT to withhold 30% of our funds we contribute.

Before the option scheme was signed off, it was given to two organisations that specialise in CEO performance/stock schemes, and two accounting firms (not including Prior and Co.) for analysis and comments before the remuneration committee which doesn't include me decided on what was appropriate.

Given there are 556 million shares, and 110 million options and 192 million shares coming from the convertible notes, (which has been in the market for more than 5 months) 37 million shares on 858 million is 4%. And these are spilt between short term and long term. The benchmark for companies like Admiralty is closer to 5%-10% should be held by the CEO to make sure he/she has an interest in success. 4% dilution of 10 cents a share is 9.61 cents - which is well within the standard deviation of price movement in any month of trading - i.e. no impact. However the big impact is I have a very real incentive now apart from salary (which to be frank is way lower than any of my international colleagues) to earn US$65m in EBIT in 2008/9. If I can do it - then at a P/E of 12, at $A 10 cents EBIT a share (at 0.74 exchange rate) its A$1.20 share price and that doesn't include the asset value - however there are many big milestones to achieve between now and then, so the market has risk weighted the share price on time and implementation - no of options is peripheral to the argument.

So I have to totally disagree with your assertion on the basis you have not put forward any mechanism to explain why a 4% dilution will have an impact, that two years ago when we announced a 175 million option issue to MTM as part of our fund raising there was no dro in share price, and that this will be capital positive that is while the share number increases so does the capital base so the NTA will not reduce dramatically. In addition this information is already in the market and the price has gone up not down?

I have had at least five calls from very large

[Mick100]

Thanks for posting that clearasmud

You would think that if Philip Thomas is that confident of getting the shareprice over $1.00 within 2-3 yrs he would be happy to take options with a 20c strike price.
,

[Mick100]

Anyone else still holding these

Nice rise today on huge volume which should signal a change in trend - looking good in my opinion.
.

[Dazza]

i sold

with no regrets

[OutToLunch]

Whooooo... I go away on holiday, and look what happens. Must get back to the beach again soon. Buy side is looking strong, clearly something is in the wind. Announcement due??

I still hold (600k @ ave 9.3)

[OutToLunch]

ADMIRALTY RESOURCES SIGNS US$65M IRON ORE SALES AGREEMENT
WITH WUGANG – 17 VESSELS FIXED BETWEEN FEB AND SEPT 2007
The board of Admiralty Resources NL is delighted to announce that its sales distributor ITOCHU, a
major Japanese trading group, based in Toyko, with offices in Perth has secured an eight month sales
agreement with International Economic and Trading Corporation, Wugang Group (“Wugang” also know
as Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corporation). Wugang is one of the largest iron and steel
manufacturers in China, with over 17 million tonnes crude steel production per annum, 112,000 staff
and US$7 billion in profit before tax.
A memorandum of agreement and sales contract has been signed confirming the terms of the supply of
iron ore fines. The memorandum sets out the terms and conditions to be negotiated for a longer term
agreement after September 2007, when it is anticipated that the panamax port will be available.
The contract is for 940,000 tonnes of iron ore to be shipped between 15 February 2007 and 30
September 2007, from the handymax port of Caleta, Caldera. Total revenues will be approximately
US$45 to US$65 million, subject to the volume shipped, which is dependent on each vessel.
Plant Test Successful
The twin processing plant able to produce 100,000 tonnes of premium grade iron ore was completed
and tested successfully with only minor adjustments to be made. A washing plant and wet high speed
drum is going to be added to enhance the quality of the iron ore fines product in February 2007.

[bullebak]

I also hold. IMO they kept the market updated properly.

[Hawke]

GEEEEZ- I got 100k (8.9c)of these two weeks ago and flicked them of in the low 9's....then they bolt!!!

Well they are in traders freefall this PM...I might do some more bottom fishing.

GREAT traders stock!

H.

[Hawke]

I am back in for a few -any punts on tomorrows close?

I'll stab at 14.5-15.5c.

WOW -the good news just keeps on rolling- Shipping contracts confirmed today (5th Jan) for Bulk Iron ore shipments set to roll NEXT month! These guys are not on holiday!
This is a company to watch and hold.

H.

[OutToLunch]

....and the world cries out for even more lithium... :D The article is a bit dated, but it suggests that Li demand is not likely to fall any time soon.

>>MIT powers up new battery for hybrid cars

Anne Trafton, News Office
February 16, 2006

Researchers at MIT have developed a new type of lithium battery that could become a cheaper alternative to the batteries that now power hybrid electric cars.

Until now, lithium batteries have not had the rapid charging capability or safety level needed for use in cars. Hybrid cars now run on nickel metal hydride batteries, which power an electric motor and can rapidly recharge while the car is decelerating or standing still.

But lithium nickel manganese oxide, described in a paper to be published in Science on Feb. 17, could revolutionize the hybrid car industry -- a sector that has "enormous growth potential," says Gerbrand Ceder, MIT professor of materials science and engineering, who led the project.

"The writing is on the wall. It's clearly happening," said Ceder, who said that a couple of companies are already interested in licensing the new lithium battery technology.

The new material is more stable (and thus safer) than lithium cobalt oxide batteries, which are used to power small electronic devices like cell phones, laptop computers, rechargeable personal digital assistants (PDAs) and such medical devices as pacemakers.

The small safety risk posed by lithium cobalt oxide is manageable in small devices but makes the material not viable for the larger batteries needed to run hybrid cars, Ceder said. Cobalt is also fairly expensive, he said.

The MIT team's new lithium battery contains manganese and nickel, which are cheaper than cobalt.

Scientists already knew that lithium nickel manganese oxide could store a lot of energy, but the material took too long to charge to be commercially useful. The MIT researchers set out to modify the material's structure to make it capable of charging and discharging more quickly.

Lithium nickel manganese oxide consists of layers of metal (nickel and manganese) separated from lithium layers by oxygen. The major problem with the compound was that the crystalline structure was too "disordered," meaning that the nickel and lithium were drawn to each other, interfering with the flow of lithium ions and slowing down the charging rate.

Lithium ions carry the battery's charge, so to maximize the speed at which the battery can charge and discharge, the researchers designed and synthesized a material with a very ordered crystalline structure, allowing lithium ions to freely flow between the metal layers.

A battery made from the new material can charge or discharge in about 10 minutes -- about 10 times faster than the unmodified lithium nickel manganese oxide. That brings it much closer to the timeframe needed for hybrid car batteries, Ceder said.

Before the material can be used commercially, the manufacturing process needs to be made less expensive, and a few other modifications will likely be necessary, Ceder said.

Other potential applications for the new lithium battery include power tools, electric bikes, and power backup for renewable energy sources.

The lead author on the research paper is Kisuk Kang, a graduate student in Ceder's lab. Ying Shirley Meng, a postdoctoral associate in materials science and engineering at MIT, and Julien Breger and Clare P. Grey of the State University of New York at Stony Brook are also authors on the paper.

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.

[Sunshine007]

And this: Investing in U.S. Natural Resources, Part 1: A Lithium Supply Crisis
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

[SCHUMACHER]

surprised to see this one take off ...but all it takes sometimes is some positive news and off she goes....ADY has had a recent string of announcements which was always going to draw a positive reaction from the market.....i may decide to buy a few but have my fingers in other pies at the moment. ADY story has been a slow start but perhaps the tide has FINALLY Turned. I bought into ADY well over 2 years ago now and rode it to 19c b4 selling.From memory it peaked at 23c back then b4 getting slaughtered
Havent been back since but will put it back on my watchlist for the time being.
cheers Schu

[bullebak]

I have created a new topic, titled "The X Club" (better names may be suggested...) under ASX.

[evedder]

Good news coming through and more to come....

[Tok3n]

Does anyone know of any other Aussies juniors involved in Lithium?

or is ADY the only one?

cheers

[OutToLunch]

Here are a couple of messages from Phil via another forum within the last few days. No doubt here that ADY is definitely on the up over the coming year or two. :)
----------------
>> 30/1/07
Hi Guys,

after a week in china with Wuhan and ITOCHU, I had an astonishing week in japan, and just happened to be outside Mitsubishi's premises when I read that they are launching a lithium polymer battery for trucks! I can't believe the price the battery manufacturers and the computer guys are paying for lithium carbonate. One guy I met was converting 240 tonnes of Li Cl to LiCO3 out of desparation!

I got back on Friday (Australia Day) and now I am in Chile - just finished a usual day here 11.30pm and trying to turn the pc off.

Back to back meetings with suppliers, government, geologists, drillers, staff meetings, etc etc to make sure its all on track. No worries. Off again tomorrow to the USA then Europe for more technical and sales meetings.

Have a read of the quarterly report to be released before the 31st to get an update.

Cheers

----------------
>> 1/2/07

Hi PT,

Referring to the recent report released today I wish to ask about the Lithium production dates.

As mentioned in the report, is the production date reflecting the actual production of Lithium, completion or delivery? in which case the dates are likely to be some considerable months afterwards, would that be correct?

If this is the way I have interpreted the dates, in that case we are not likely to see ADY's cash flow from Lithium until late 2009 to early 2010.

Have I mis-interpreted this fact?

Regards
Tony
-----------------------------------------------------
Response From Phillip:

Yes you are correct - you have got it totally wrong.

Ponds are being built now as we speak, in 300-400 days the first batch of brine concentrated to 10,000ppm will be available and we would have produced the first batch of potash (a by-product). Remember the cost of potash is nil to produce so the $175 tonne hits the bottom line.

It takes about one day to take the brine and produce 99.5% pure lithium carbonate, 40 mins to produce lithium chloride and another day to produce lithium Hydroxide. We expect to produce it in batches of 76 tonne (see the quarterly report yesterday for mass balances). We will also produce (at this stage) 99.999 computer battery grade to manufacture lithium hexa flurophosphate.

So from July to Sept 2008 if all things are achieved and its a hot summer in 2008 and global warming continues we will have our first 1,000 tonne. And then onwards we will produce about 1,500 tonne of lithium product per month.

However, Japanese order supplies for the year in March, so their FY year is April to March, so by December this year I hope to announce sales contracts for the June 2008-9 production year which is six months production for the Japanese FY (say Sep to Mar), and announce standby L/C and firm orders. I will be using some of these L/C's for finance to complete the project. They will have particular features that allowme to do it.

At present our total opex estimate is $35m, 17,000 tonnes of product at 6,500 tonne comes in at 110.5m, 80,000 tonne of potash at 14m so that gives us an EBITDA of $124m plus SB at say 3.5m tonnes is EBIT 21m so back of the envelop total EBIT is $110, so on 1.1 billion shares thats 10 cents a share - US, pick a multiple and you got the story.

Compute that for 20 years, put a terminal value of $500m for the salar and $200m for SB, do a NPV at say 12% disc rate and see what you get. (remember unlike normal mining projects the salar has an almost infinite life, and SB has so much in prospective tenements it will be a long time before the ore is gone, plus the infrastructure assets we are building, have significant value in Chile).

Thats the story.

cheers from New York

[Mick100]

OTL must be away on holiday again

Nice rise on good volume today

Lets hope it holds these levels
,

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

OTL must be away on holiday again

Nice rise on good volume today

Lets hope it holds these levels
,


It was close -- I was away Feb 2 through 7. I never knew holidays could pay off so handsomely -- by way of advance warning, I'm hoping to take a few more days mid next month... no doubt that will trigger a massive Lithium contract announcement from ADY. :D[8D]

[clearasmud]

Market didn't seem that impressed with this announcement.
Was it the borrowing figures for the salar?

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/12ac957513b0b2bca464f12b5ad002fc/ASX-ADY-186191.pdf
The directors of Admiralty Resources are pleased to announce the following progress at the Rincon Salar, in
Argentina:
Highlights
• Good progress is being made to implement a US$100m debt facility to build the Rincon Salarproject with two project financiers;
• An interim debt facility for US$6m is being put in place shortly, some of which will be used to
progress the project;
• Environmental approval received to construct pre-production ponds at the Rincon site and
complete the balance of the evaporation ponds;
• Excellent progress on construction and new financial estimates.
Pre-production ponds and pre-treatment plant design completed : We have now finalized the detailed
engineering and specifications for the ponds and pre-treatment plant and we are evaluating tenders for its
construction – we have requested quotes from six mechanical manufacturers/earth moving engineers and we
expect to select the final contractor in the next two weeks. The ponds and plant have received final environmental
approval from the provincial government which was the key factor impeding progress. Each pond will be
approximately one hectare in size. When all 500 ponds are completed, lined, pumps connected, instrumentation
and piping installed, the total cost is expected to be approximately US$24-$27 million.
Construction and Mining Camp : We are awaiting municipal approval to commence the construction of the
construction/mining camp in Rincón, on the 19 March 2007, and we are mobilising to start construction as soon as
possible.
Field Communications : A satellite station providing voice, internet and data transmission will shortly be installed
at the Rincon. The station will be placed in the mining camp with a micro or laser link to the meteorological
station.
Meteorological Station : The meteorological station is working exceptionally well, and every 24 hours, the station
records 3841 data points over wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure,
solar radiation and precipitation. This allows us to better position the ponds to maximize evaporation, and explain
the high rates of evaporation we are currently experiencing.
Production Plant Flow Sheet and Construction Program : We are now completing the Construction Program
including detailed estimates of resources required, "B" grade financial estimates and the Gantt diagrams.
Exploration: All the exploration has been completed in the field and we are now awaiting the laboratory results to
finalise the report. We are aiming to have complete reports within 4 weeks.
Geochronology and radio-isotopic studies : The University of Barcelona has commenced these studies aimed
to establish a detailed geochronology of the Salar to ensure we understand the full economic potential of the
resource.
Environmental Impact Statement : We have started to prepare an EIS for the whole extraction and production
process that we intend to present for approval by the Provincial Government. Completion will be in the next few
weeks. This will be the final environmental approval required.
ISO certifications : We are preparing the documentation required to certify the Laboratory to ISO 9001. We also
are preparing the documentation for ISO 14001. This means we will be able to certify our own product quality for
shipment to clients rather than using an independent laboratory. This will save time and expense.
Expenditure: The expenditure for the 12 months to date amounts to Arg Pesos $ 4.4 million equivalent to US $ 1,4
million. Expenditure to complete the Pilot Ponds and Pre-treatment Plant is estimated at US$ 1.8 million over the
next four months.
Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au

[Hawke]

This news is Major- if indeed funding of the 100m is completed- A project funding of more than the market Cap of ADY. I just s new phone with the latest Lithium battery- amazing stuff! I cant wait to be onboard with a producer!

The market was probably not so impressed with the followup Ann' about another JORC administraion stuffup. Not a biggie really -but not too good on the confidence front.

I have traded ADY regulary but I wnat to be onboard when it steps up to the 20-40c ranges which should occur this year on the Iron Ore shipments/payments alone.

Hawke.

[OutToLunch]

Two extremely positive announcements out of ADY today -- cash flow has started with iron ore exports to China and they have also managed to discharge a USD 2 mill loan facility well ahead of time in cold hard cash. ADY shares are extremely undervalued relative to potential revenues over the coming couple of years. I've just topped up my holding to 875k shares -- I think this one's going to be a ripper. :)

[Hawke]

Yes OTL- today the market huhummed the substantial news.

I seem lightweight in my holdings of ADY - I should be in for more when seeing how good this will get over the comming year.

Good fortune to all holders!
Hawke.

[Hawke]

Its wake up time folks!

The good ship ADY is well and truly sailing off- The SP kicked today with 2 mill trading on highs at end trading today.

The ships must be on the horizon for their first OF MANY bulk shipments of high quality Iron Ore to sail off to quench the Chinese Steel appetite.

The IO story should make this stock bolt into the 20s-30s IMHO after a few shipments and payments recieved.

Then the Lithium prospect should be able to be fully realised from cashflows and debt.

Hawke.

[OutToLunch]

Just got back from holiday tonight and what a nice surprise to see ADY at 18 cents. This is great -- it seems that every time I go away, ADY takes off! :D:D[8D] News out soon? Rumours I've seen so far suggest that the first IO shipment leaves on Friday. Would love to see some news re. further IO contracts and the biggie of course -- some Li contracts.

Edit: I should add that the last I heard (from a comment Phil made a while ago, I think on Topstocks) Li contracts shouldn't be expected to be announced until late 2007, concerning Li production in 2008-9. Something like that anyway -- someone correct me if I've recalled it wrongly.

[Damo79]

Wow, it is indeed doing well! I've said on another thread, I got almost wiped out (well 50%) last year sometime (stupid speculative stocks [B)]), and decided to pretty much give up on trading. I did however, decide to rake together my left over money from some failed share purchases and buy a reasonable parcel of ADY at 12 cents to sit and hold. If it just doubles in price (well maybe a couple of times ;)) I could be back on top.

[8D]

Damo

[Damo79]

Up ~70% in a week and still ticking over. Another 10% today. :D:D:D

The only event recently is that their first shipment of ore was loaded and sent off to china, and payment received. This was all just according to previous announcements though. It's amazing what cold hard cash does for the market.

Damo

[OutToLunch]

Worth a read (pasted from HC)

>>>Admiralty's ship sails
By Richard Roberts, 16 April 2007

THERE are as many junior mineral companies waiting for their ship to come in as there are cape-size vessels off the coast at Newcastle. Across the Pacific Ocean, a long wait for an iron ore project to move forward ended with last week’s hasty loading of a $US3.29 million batch of high-grade magnetite bound for (where else?) China.

For investors who’ve stuck with Admiralty Resources NL, a minnow which for some time has harboured lofty ambitions for its South American projects, initial iron ore shipments from its northern Chile mines might ease some of the frustration over earlier schedule changes. In November 2005, for example, Admiralty managing director Phillip Thomas said he expected to be producing and shipping iron ore in Chile early in 2006. He told HighGrade last week he felt the project had moved briskly since he signed a deal in February 2005 to secure iron ore resources in historic mining areas near Vallenar.

“We have now started shipping high-grade, quality iron ore,” he said, but conceded getting mining underway in two areas and gaining access to port facilities had been arduous at times. “Once we got established and running, it was easy sailing. But getting it up and running wasn’t easy,” he said.

The first cargo of 63.5% Fe magnetite bound for the Wuhan Iron and Steel Company is part of a 700,000-tonne-plus sale to the big Chinese steel group, to be delivered by the end of September this year. Thomas is confident of securing contracts for up to 1.7 million tonnes a year more, not necessarily all in China (the company sold some iron ore into the domestic market last year), and also about getting access to port facilities that accommodate bigger ships. He said Admiralty had negotiated an arrangement with US-based copper producer Phelps Dodge to ship via its larger Caldera port facilities, which would require completion of a bridge conveyor to transfer iron ore from Admiralty’s stockpiles by the end of 2007. Longer term, the Admiralty plan is still to spend about $US32 million building a cape-size port, plus a stockpile area and some roadworks at Huasco Bay, 60km west of its Japonesa mines and the 100,000tpa plant it commissioned at Vallenar in October last year.

It is currently stockpiling more ore from the 49%-owned Compania Minera Santa Barbara (CMSB) mines (including Japonesa) where Thomas says ore production is running at 1.2Mtpa. A further 1.2Mtpa is to come from Cia Minera Santa Fe, which entered into a joint venture with CMSB earlier this year. It is said to have 50Mt of 66% iron ore fines stockpiled from previous mining and is located about 75km from the Caleta port facilities Admiralty is using to send its initial handymax-size shipments.

Thomas said the CMSB mines, south-west of Vallenar, had total resources of at least 41Mt grading 60-67% Fe, currently the subject of a review by SRK Consulting. He couldn’t comment on the likely timing of announcements about further supply contracts, but remained confident that the sales could be made subject to Admiralty’s ability to adjust its export levels.

“We plan to go to 3.6mtpa next year if we can get the (Huasco Bay) port facility secured. It is pointless doing it earlier because we just can’t ship it out.”

Admiralty announced to the Australian Securities Exchange earlier this year that it had received strong interest from Chinese and American port construction groups interested in a joint venture to fund and operate a port at Punta Alcalde. “The target for completion [of the port facilities] is January 2009,” the company said. “Once the port is developed its use will reduce the transport cost per tonne by more than $US8 and reduce CFR [cost and freight] shipping prices by up to $US5/t compared to using Panamax ships. The overall profit increase is $US13/t, or $US46.8 million based on 3.6Mtpa.”

Thomas said it would cost only about $US2-3 million more to expand mining and processing of ore at Santa Barbara and Santa Fe. “It’s not

[Underlord]

Hi All

Brought in yesterday good volume going through at the moment and top 20 holders changing not counting the 10 mill brought yesterday should be an update on top 20 I feel next week.

The Lithium thing interests me (and these guys seem to have alot of it) especially with the growing concerns around fossil fuels and the advent of more electric powered vehicals, cell phones, computers..etc etc

I feel this is more of a long term hold to obtain the true value but short term I would expect a steady rise based upon there mountly shipments of Fe ore

One to watch over the comming mounths...years:):):)

UL

[OutToLunch]

Yep we're off -- revenues are pouring into ADY's coffers now and it sounds like institutions are finally buying in on the good news. It doesn't seem that long ago that ADY was being bagged as a complete dog of a stock and the shares were wallowing around at 8 cents or less -- as recently as late last year. What a great time that was to back up the truck. :D:D

There's a real change in sentiment surrounding ADY now so we should be seeing higher prices very soon. Check out some other sites (HC, Topstocks, Sharescene) to see what I mean.

[Mick100]

Yes congrats on your 800k purchase of ADY at rock bottom prices OTL - your sitting on a nice profit now. I wasn't game enough to go big on this one.

By the way - those historical drilling results from bullman are very impressive.
ADY certainly have plenty in the pipeline.
.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


Yes congrats on your 800k purchase of ADY at rock bottom prices OTL - your sitting on a nice profit now. I wasn't game enough to go big on this one.

By the way - those historical drilling results from bullman are very impressive.
ADY certainly have plenty in the pipeline.
.


Cheers, Mick, yes ADY has done nicely for me (on paper anyway) -- up a bit over 90% in the last year or so on my average of 10.4c. However I firmly believe that ADY is just starting to wake up now and has a lot left in it before it's time to lock in the gains. I'm looking at holding for another 1-2 years at least before I'd think about selling, and even then it might be worthwhile to continue holding if ADY are progressing well and plan to pay out a nice dividend in years to come. All that anticipated cashflow has to go somewhere and even their planned US100m financing job (for developing their Li operations) is expected to be fully paid off within 1 1/2 to 2 years of drawdown after which ADY would be debt-free and pulling in huge revenues.

The biggest risk I see is the state of the market in general, albeit buffered to a degree by the fact that ADY will be mainly driven by Li, the market for which is more about energy and (especially) climate change than commodity prices per se. Very interesting times ahead. Thanks to bear for starting this thread and hence my holding in ADY. :)

Phil posts occasionally on Topstocks and his comments are worth keeping up with.

[Underlord]

Interesting times ahead I feel this could go again and soon
.................................................. ...................
Brendan Fogarty: STATE ONE STOCKBROKING recommends BUY at 20 cents.

IRON ore exports began this quarter, giving a $30 million revenue stream. When lithium production begins next financial year, revenue should increase to $120 million. Offers execellent earnings growth.

Source: Page 88 Heraldsun April 22, 2007.
.................................................. ...................
UL

[Damo79]

Hi guys. Announcement on funding just released (see below). I was wondering if anyone could explain the "forced conversion" option?

Cheers

Damo


US$6M FUNDING FACILITY
FOR PORT AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT
Highlights
• US$6.0m, 7% interest, 720 day term, unsecured note with no conversion option on
repayments, repayable at any time, “forced” conversation at 175% increase in share
price, interest prepaid six months
• Part Payment of US$1.0m towards acquisition of further 1% in Cia Minera Santa
Barbara taking interest to 50%
• US$1.0m invested in pilot plant construction at Rincon Salar, continuing earthworks
• US$1.0m provided as deposit for Candelaria Port facility for panamax vessels
• US$1.15m provided to Cia Minera Santa Barbara for working capital
• US$0.5m repaid on ITOCHU loan

Edit: The 'conversation' instead of conversion was their typo :-p

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Damo79
• US$6.0m, 7% interest, 720 day term, unsecured note with no conversion option on
repayments, repayable at any time, “forced” conversation at 175% increase in share
price, interest prepaid six months



Doesn't make much sense to me

maybe they will revise this announcment at some stage
.

[OutToLunch]

Me neither. Read at face value, maybe ADY and their lenders will be forced to talk nicely to each other if the share price takes off. [:p]

Seriously though, maybe there's a 'convert debt to shares' clause in there if the shares go up strongly, but it seems unusual. Perhaps it was negotiated in exchange for the low interest rate.

[Sunshine007]

To spread a good story:
The picture for lithium is getting better by the day: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=31961
I would say ADY and the lithium story are still not widely known, and even less thought about amongst investors. People still treat ADY as a resource/exploration spec, I guess. This is an exerpt from an article posted on ADY's website http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/2007/Highgrade_April16_edition.pdf:
"The real story is the reserves (427,000t of lithium chloride equivalent) are academic
because it’s probably got a 220-year mine life based on what we know of the geology and
the flow rate. Rincon Salar is one of the world’s weird anomalies where you have almost
an infinite mine life as long as the lithium sitting in the surrounding volcanics doesn’t get
washed out."
Infinite mine life, folks, infinite. How do you discount back infinite cashflows?

LYC and ARU rocketed on the back of rare earth story, MOL and a lot others rocketed up on the moly story. Now we have a lithium story and yet ADY still attracts minimal attention. Don't know about others but I see potential here. Do your own research and see if you agree!

I should add that my knowledge is very limited and superficial. So anyone who has done research on this please post your view on this, especially if you think I am wrong.

[Halebop]

To clarify the "infinite" question - 220 years is not infinite, it is 220 years. If you really want to see the impact of discount cash flows in a really big model (like 220 years), build one cell by cell in a spreadsheet. It becomes evident that after a few decades the discount is so great that any value augmentation is meaningless (i.e. pretty much nil). After all, if you a buying earnings in 50 or 100 years time, what price are you willing top pay for it now? (A rhetorical question - the answer is very little because you will likely be dead before a dividend can be enjoyed).

So from an investment point of view, 30 or 40 years is typically as good as infinite. It's hard enough picking a future 1 or 10 years in advance let alone 220. Over 220 years I'd pick a volcano might be able to put a further dent in the math as well. If I'm investing in retail stores or manufacturing operations over that time, I'd probably be very unlucky to lose more than 1 or 2 to volcanic activity (I'd probably expect to lose zero). I imagine something as simple as a lahar could follow the course of current water flows and wash away their processing facilities (or at least make profitable processing difficult). If a mountain blew it's top then the outcome would be even more difficult to calculate. Whatever the outcome, it would seem dangerous to predict a zero risk from volcanic activity and it would follow that the grater the mine life, then greater would be the probability and financial cost of an incident.

ADY is a potentially great story, perhaps delivering a high volume (at a low cost) of a product likely to enjoy great demand over the next few years or decades. Stick to this simpler story because I'd be amazed if we were using the same technologies in 50 years time let alone 220.

I suspect the easiest gain here is if they manage the transition from explorer to profitable lithium producer. Few investors will be looking 10 years out let alone 220.

[Sunshine007]

Yeah, I suppose you are right.

If Toyota is going Li-IO for their hybrids I suppose we will have a strong market for our lithium, well in the next FEW year.

[Hawke]

I think ADY is well poised to keep flying as it has started to do over the last few months.

I have been in for more today..... on its dip from it recent highs. More highs are very likely to be posted over the next few months.

We can expect news over the comming week or so of more sales shipments of Iron ore going to the giant mills in China.

With more and more car majors going down the Hybrid Car development path (with massive production numbers being talked of) with their eyes fixed on the latest Lithium battery powerpacks- ADYs' future sales of Lithium is likely to be produced into a "perfect storm" time for great Li' demand and prices.

Hawke.

[OutToLunch]

Yes it is a very good story that is unfolding. CEO Phil Thomas has made some encouraging comments on topstocks regarding future iron ore prices too. I picked up some more at 21c a couple of days ago. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some fairly major correction in the markets over the next few months, but at the end of it all China is still going to want iron and, as for Li, people are still going to want to drive their cars/use their cellphones/worry about carbon emissions. ADY is a fantastic medium- to long-term hold, despite short term fluctuations.

[Hawke]

ADY has a great new Website Too!
Set up in the last day or two.

http://www.ady.com.au/

New major holding changes in the top 20 list as well.
The top holders now have over 50% of the Co'
New shares have recently been issued.

Hawke.

[tricha]

ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early "

Time will tell;)

The only Australian Lithium Company to come to "light"

[tricha]

Bear - "Hi all - target price anywhere between 132c to 244c as per recent valuation report - Bear"

I got a feeling Bear was ahead of the game, a bit like me and Mincor I suppose but I hung in there and got my ten bagger. If Bears prediction is true, Admiralty Resources is going to be a multi bagger[:p] and I can't see a reason why it will not be.

It looks like there is no Lithium Carbonate in Australia to make Lithium Batteries so ADY is it if you want a piece of the lithium action.

Sons of Gwalia (Greenbushes) produce spodumene from hardrock, grades max 5% Lithium, they built a plant to convert it into Lithium Carbonate and it failed miserably.
Galaxy Resources down in Ravensthorpe has the same spodumene hardrock at lower grades, probably will never get off the ground.

Quite amazing Bears title, too risky/early was exactly spot on when he wrote the thread.

That was then, we are here 2.06.2007 and the Lithium mine is coming together exceptionally well,when Lithium demand is starting to go ballistic.
Rincon Salar is a World Class multi element brine deposit.

They are now earning via their iron ore exports, which will enable them to fund the Lithium project.

It's all coming together and luckily, thanks to all of you on the ADY thread got on board, just in the nick of time.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[tricha]

Admiralty Resources when people click onto Lithium, could be the Paladin of the U market.(The only risk I see is Sovereign, which no one can predict.)

The trouble with Lithium is there will not be enough to go around, expect a price explosion for Lithium and Lithium Producers ;)

Posted by Clearasmud on peak oil - http://tyler.blogware.com/lithium_shortage.pdf

[Hawke]

Yes ADY is a real sleeping giant -still under most radar- till the Toyota battery plant starts demanding more Lithium that the world can easily supply!

ADY is really holding well after recent gains in the SP and the Boss Phill T. is doing a good job at advancing the two Major prospects of the PRODUCING Iron ore mines and lithium projects.

The Whiff of a large automaker showing interest in ADY's Lithium and this will be a multibagger from current levels.

Hawke.

[Halebop]

In the short term I'd be more worried about the potential lithium supply overhang ADY could lumber the market with than sovereign risk. Growth in demand has been good over the last decade but the market will still need to grow into those additional production volumes.

An irony (particularly for USA) that energy supply risk would merely be broadened to 2 front's in the advent of efficient alternatives to oil. With cars needing to be recharged often, I suspect we haven't seen the last of simpler technologies like coal fired power stations. My bet is that there is money to be made in scrubbing technologies.

How many batteries will it take to power a Bradley tank anyhow? [:p]

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop
With cars needing to be recharged often, I suspect we haven't seen the last of simpler technologies like coal fired power stations. My bet is that there is money to be made in scrubbing technologies.




Yes, I agree
Base load power demand will increase
Looks good for coal and even better for nuclear power stations (uranium)

Chile and argentina are probably the least risky of the south american countries. I don't think they'll "turn the clock back" and nationalise resourses as is happening in nieghbouring countries.
.

[shasta]

Have decided to take the plunge & buy into ADY, after doing some research, & reviewing some of the earlier postings on this thread.

As with GDM, i like the diversity of projects & imminent revenue, & the Lithium story in general.

Quite a few shares on issue, but the potential alone is worth a small punt.

[Hawke]

Wellcome Shasta.
The tight trading range at low volume is showing ADY is wound tight as a spring.
Looking forward on its assault into the late 20's which should be due in comming weeks.
I am glad they are shipping the I. Ore off South America and not the packed Australian East Coast.....bit of weather there now!

Hawke.

[shasta]

Thanks Hawke

Nice to see in the March 07 Quarterly, ADY is expecting 320,000 tonnes of Iron Ore out of Chile for the June quarter...

A few capital committments though...

[shasta]

Something caught my attention in todays announcement regarding the Iron Ore deposit in Chile (Cia Minera Santa Barbara), that i need some clarification on.

Ann says $US3.5m paid to raise the s/holding from 49% - 50%, although the last quarterly stated this was to be $US2.5m as final payment for the 50% JV.

Can anyone explain the difference, else i'll email the company

Thanks in advance

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Something caught my attention in todays announcement regarding the Iron Ore deposit in Chile (Cia Minera Santa Barbara), that i need some clarification on.

Ann says $US3.5m paid to raise the s/holding from 49% - 50%, although the last quarterly stated this was to be $US2.5m as final payment for the 50% JV.

Can anyone explain the difference, else i'll email the company

Thanks in advance

I'm sure it was probably mentioned before hand but in their "$6m Finance Facility Drawdown" announcement back in April they mentioned that US$3.5m of the $8.5 million purchase price was not due until the first shipment of ore proceeded. However, the previous announcement talked about their "49%" interest so it's not 100% clear this is one and the same but the amounts match and the original acquisition announcements way back specified a 50% interest. Perhaps until the final payment was made, their interest was relegated to a minority one to provide the vendor with the additional security of control?

[shasta]

Thanks Halebop

I was a tad confused between the two different articles, although the end result is clear, we have 50% of the very profitable Iron Ore JV.

[shasta]

Some increased volume today after some late trades took trading over 7m shares.

Hit 21c intra day & closed up 0.5c at 20c.

VWAP was 20.04

Even being talked about on H/C

Something brewing, perhaps?

[Hawke]

I can fell the force is very strong with ADY.

Once those recent option buyers/sellers are done we will be moving up again.

ADY is the mutts nuts -as far as I can see!

Hawke.

[tricha]

They are talking about iron ore price increases, all bodes well for ADY [:p]

And if you take in 800 million shares at 20 cents, only 160 million for the company.

How much will their Lithium be worth, lets say 1 billion [?][?][?]

I mean its a world class deposit, isn't it [?][?][?]

Even if they give half of it away for a joint venture partner like Mitsubishi.

It would still give us 55 cents on top of around 20 cents for the iron ore.

But why would they do that, when the iron ore has the potential to fund the Lithium.

How do I quantify ADY, between 50 cents and $1.00. I guess thats the #1 problem with ADY, how do u quantify it [?][?][?]

[shasta]

With so many shares on issue, ADY is fairly illiquid with most days < 5m traded, & a few days up to 8/9m.

Seems range bound at 19 - 21c, though we shouldnt be far away from the announcement re Iron Ore & the 320,000T they were meant to produce in the June quarter.

Hope your right Tricha & ADY can fund itself through its Iron Ore sales, would add so much to the company's worth. ;)

[bullebak]

Looks like it has formed a bottom and starting to move up. Added some to my inventory yesterday at 0.200.

[Halebop]

19.5 to 20.5 certainly appears to be the support range, have bought a few myself.

For those interested in the OBV debate on the NZX channel, this company has tended to fall on low volume and rise on high volume - i.e. the buyers are pushing the price - not the sellers.

[Scuffer]

This is a real flyer very soon all the signs are there

[Dazza]

OBV has flat lined, while the SP has shaved off more than 20% that has to be a bullish sign dun u think halebop

one would think usually when SP falls so much, the OBV falls as well.

Im back into the fold gentlement, at 20.5cents, i entered around 10cents, so i missed the 100% rise, mind u the money i sold went into other ventures that went into good stuff :p

all the best gentlement, see u guys at the 50cent mark, and then the $1.

[Scuffer]

I'm happy don't want to fly too close to the sun just yet even the wax in Icarus' wings melted, would like to get a few more yet, so steady as she goes.

[bullebak]

But Scuffer, you can always buy them from us... (at our prices of course) :D :D

[shasta]

Goodish volume & we are again testing 20.5/21.0c

Looking for a strong close...

I agree with the above comments, she's readying herself to fly on good news.

Bullebak - I'm sure we could part with a few shares around 40c...

[Halebop]

It's just a single measure Dazza so should be viewed with appropriate skepticism, however, I do like the trend line, I like the cash flow that iron should start delivering and I like that the cash flow can fund a big part of their lithium plans. My main concern is the volume of lithium they could flood the markets with but the trends look likely to be able to accommodate this in the medium term.

OBV has been "steady" simply because the few up days have generally been on the back of higher volumes than the down days - this is an indicator that buyers are more eager than sellers. Let's hope they are right ;)

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9232/adyobvro6.png

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by skinny on a different thread
Hi HB - I see you ignored economics 101 and bought some ADY?
Good stuff, I hold some too, relying on Psych 105 to make it worthwhile [:p]

Viewing it as a more of a technical trade for the moment but I do think there are enough pro lithium arguments out there to justify a higher price despite some risk of short term over-supply.

...In terms of influence my Chimera told me to do it.

[Scuffer]

I will buy at any price from anyone if it is going to turn a profit, never look a gift horse in the mouth, good times ahead guys

[shasta]

Scuffer

Check out it's presentations & EBITDA forecasts, looking at a good profit on Iron Ore alone.

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Goodish volume & we are again testing 20.5/21.0c

Looking for a strong close...

I agree with the above comments, she's readying herself to fly on good news.

Bullebak - I'm sure we could part with a few shares around 40c...


Closing at 21.5c with increased volume for the day. All aboard please!!! :)

That means you too, Scuffer... or you WILL be paying 40c to us.

[tricha]

Halebop - "My main concern is the volume of lithium they could flood the markets with but the trends look likely to be able to accommodate this in the medium term"

Hmm, how long you have been to Bunnings [?][?][?]

The ultimate in battery tools is "Lithium Ion"
So much lighter than the nickel ones, no memory, pump till they go flat, fast recharge times.

By the time Admiralty Resources get their Lithium into production we should see a four fold price increase for lithium carbonate to around ( just a guess) $20,000 a ton.

Like I stated before u can not quantify this company, all these can do is look to the future and have an educated stab in the dark.

Bear "target price anywhere between 132c to 244c as per recent valuation report"

Bear must has a crystal ball!

You hope I am right Shasta, I hope Bears right ;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S My only concern is Soverign risk, so I wouldn't bet my house on it, my I do hold 100,000 shares in them, regard them as speculative with odds extremely in my favour.

[Dazza]

halebop

yes with readings with the volume indicator u are quite right.

i guess depends on how u slice the cake.

SP down, but OBV flat.

SP down, but volume low compared to when it went up on its 2nd leg ie 20cents - 26 cents

its gotta be good for ya :D

so both technical and fundamentally it was a buy today

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by tricha


P.S My only concern is Soverign risk, so I wouldn't bet my house on it,.




In my opinion PNG, Indonesia and the Philipenes have higher soverign risk than chile and argentina. These two countries are very low risk in todays new world order. I have not bet the farm on ADY either but I would never bet the farm on any miner or oiler no matter what country they're in.
.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Halebop - "My main concern is the volume of lithium they could flood the markets with but the trends look likely to be able to accommodate this in the medium term"

Hmm, how long you have been to Bunnings [?][?][?]

The ultimate in battery tools is "Lithium Ion"
So much lighter than the nickel ones, no memory, pump till they go flat, fast recharge times.

By the time Admiralty Resources get their Lithium into production we should see a four fold price increase for lithium carbonate to around ( just a guess) $20,000 a ton...

Tricha I don't know what the price of Lithium will be if and when ADY get mining up and running but your guess is just a guess. Besides, my main concern is the "quantitative analysis by Bunnings" technique [:p].

I think it is easier to know that lithium consumption has a 10 year trend line of around +5%pa growth. So even if production is boosted by 20 or 30% in the next couple of years, prices should hopefully not fall (or at least not fall for long), assuming the demand/consumption trend line remains on the same path. If the price rises, cool, but $20,000 is requiring a sea change that cannot be counted on at this juncture and ADY's business model works on lower prices than are presently offered. (Lithium as a motor vehicle energy substitute is hardly a done deal, a mass market manufacturer is risking a lot by depending on such a narrow source of supply).

A lot of lithium under the bridge until we know the outcome and in the interim the price of iron probably impacts their lithium plans more than anything else.

[Hawke]

Yes I agree with the uncertainties about future prices of IO and Lithium.
We can say with some degree of certaintity that demand will remain strong for both....with potential for major increasing demand for Lithium.

Nevertheless for us current holders of ADY -anything about the 20c area is very cheap- and IMHO a Market not awake to ADY and what it will be in 1-2 years.

Hawke- Talons tightly clutching ADY like a fat fieldmouse.

[shasta]

Article of note for ADY holders...

Iron ore exporters may be in line for 10% price rise.

Jesse Riseborough
June 23, 2007

IRON ore exporters such as BHP Billiton and CVRD may win a 10 per cent increase in prices from steel mills next year as China drives global demand, according to Daiwa Securities.

Annual contract prices for benchmark Newman fines ore might rise to $US89.89 a tonne from $US81.72, Daiwa analyst Mark Pervan said in a report this week.

The bank had previously forecast a 5 per cent gain in the steelmaking raw material.

Iron ore prices have risen for the past five years to a record level because of surging demand from China, the biggest producer of steel and the biggest buyer of iron ore.

CVRD said last month that China's iron ore imports might exceed expectations in 2007 as the nation's rising steel output boosted demand.

"China is clearly the key market for iron-ore demand," Mr Pervan said in the report. "The spot market also points to higher contract prices in 2008."

The Indian iron ore spot price into China was trading at a record $US105, the report said.

Global iron ore prices climbed 24 per cent in the first five months of this year, according to the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries.

Daiwa said export iron ore supplies might rise 8.3 per cent in 2007, mainly from the three biggest producers - BHP Billiton, CVRD and Rio Tinto, which have about three-quarters of the global market between them.

"Despite our 2007 supply growth forecast looking nominally high, we do not expect it to match even stronger demand," Mr Pervan said. "[China's] larger and faster growing coastal mills will require an increasing amount of high grade and contract-secured iron ore from Brazil and Australia."

Prices might gain 25 per cent next year as Chinese demand rose more than expected, Credit Suisse Group said in a report this month. It had been forecasting a 10 per cent gain.

Last month Goldman Sachs JBWere forecast a 9 per cent gain and in March Deutsche Bank forecast a 10 per cent increase.

China might boost imports by as much as 20 per cent this year, the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprise Association said in April, doubling a December prediction.

Bloomberg

[tricha]

I'll put it another way Halebop.

Not long ago all mobile phones, cam-recorders, laptops etc, had these heavy Nickel something batteries. What do nearly all have now [?]

My quantitative analysis by Bunnings technique relates to, we are now seeing more and more power tools being introduced with Li-Ion batteries. Another few years, unless something else comes up, they will all be Li-Ion Batteries.
Every good tradeperson and good home handyman wants and needs them.

Lithium consumption is more than likely going to go off exponentially.

There will not be enough to go around [xx(]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Mick100]

Armed forces are another big user of battery powersd equipment (in the field) along with tradesmen and handymen.
The US, china and Russia are all increasing the size of their armed forces at the moment which is bullish for battery manufacturers and for the suppliers of raw materials to battery manufacturers.
I think it's unlikely that there will be an oversupply of lithium chloride in the market when ADY starts producing.
.

[Phaedrus]

The OBV can provide useful insight, but don't become fixated on it! There are plenty of good indicators and I would hope that no-one here thinks that OBV is some sort of magic bullet. Above all, before you start to worry about indicators, make sure you take a good long look at price action, specifically trends, support/resistance levels etc.
Look at Halebop's chart - all that you need is right there.
(1) You are buying into a stock in a "long-term" uptrend.
(2) ADY has just broken above its "medium-term" trendline.
(3) Support at 19.5 has been tested 12 times, and has held.

Technically, this would have to be classed as a low risk trade. Why? Because you have bought very close to a level of recent support. A stop loss set just below this level would get you out at very little loss should the trade go against you.

[ruethewhirl]

Phaedrus,

Wow, you're still alive, good for you.

Havn't seen any posts by your good self for quite some time.

[bullebak]

Got some more this morning at 0.210

[shasta]

Someone else likes ADY too, big volume early...

[Dazza]

ady powering along

24 up nearly 15% today great :DDDDDDDD

20.5 glad i entered again

[shasta]

Good timing Dazza

[Crypto Crude]

shasta, yet another great pick...
you are being a legend around here...
this ones for you...
[8D]
.^shasta

[shasta]

Plenty of others in ADY before me Shrewd.

I've just spread the word to the X Clubbers!

[Scuffer]

You guys might be selling at 40cents if it keeps going like this, but I suppose you might by hanging on for bigger highs.

[shasta]

Closer to the $1.20 valuation might tempt me ...

[Scuffer]

To buy more I would have to sell something else I'm tempted but don't want all my eggs in one basket, poor little scuffer is not made of money although I do wish I had bought more when I bought in.

[shasta]

Your not the lone ranger there, have been selling down/out of companies & just wish i brought more of ADY.

I like the looks of the Iron Ore & Lithium/Potash & will hold this long term & it's a buy for me...

Just need to sell off my remaining FNT first!

[Scuffer]

Well as I said before Shasta I will happily buy fom anyone at any price if I'm gonna make money and I think this little bird has a long way to fly up yet so they will be plenty of opportunity yet just the pay off is going down as the price soars.

[shasta]

Whats a few cents when next year it'll be $1 > anyways.

Chartwise todays action should trigger a few buy signals so expect some more action tomorrow.

[Scuffer]

Yup ya right but some of my stocks are safe bets long term and I don't want to expose myself too much to risk, done that before an burnt my fingers.

[Hawke]

MMMMMM......tasty Lithium and IO is bringing out the punters.

Hard not to trade this one again.
-I need to milk some boat refitting funds from this one.

Hawke.

[Scuffer]

Shouldn't ya be in ValeNZia "Mi amigo"

[Hawke]

We will watch the cup live hopefully on Aucklands waters.

Perhaps ADY will assist in a big upgrade in water transportation?

A two or tree day run on Cheap ADYs ("on sale" below 30c) will be nice.

Hawke.

[Scuffer]

I'm up for that are you buying?

[bear]

good to see challenging new highs

traded this one off and on since end 2004 - been good to me ... maybe time to catch the wave for a bit longer and see where we end up $1+ would be very handy Shasta

may look to add but already hold a nice parcel

bear

[Hawke]

Im already tanked up on ADY- will look to top on the dips- last week in fact!

GO ADY........

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by bear

good to see challenging new highs

traded this one off and on since end 2004 - been good to me ... maybe time to catch the wave for a bit longer and see where we end up $1+ would be very handy Shasta

may look to add but already hold a nice parcel

bear


I'm wanting to top up too, though need to take some funds out of the market temporarily, though NONE of it will be from ADY.

When the Lithium/Potash comes online the SP will soar. ;)

Lithium is one of those resources, like Zinc & Uranium where the gap between demand & supply will take a few years to fill & near producers will benefit the most.

Am expecting the Iron Ore quantities to increase from this quarter & this alone should support a higher share price.

[Dazza]

mmmmmm finish up 19% absolutely nuts mmmmm

so happy i brought :D

i freed up WMEO/ and a bit of EVE (Free carried now) to buy into this

worked a charm :D

[Dazza]

just looking at the chart like what P said, what a magnificient entry point last friday was :D

ST resistance was at 21cents, once it closed that it was blue skies.

Support is 20cents ever since april.

Upside my first target is 30-32cents

then 50cents, then $1

ill be holding until mangagement stuffs up or soemthing.

only issue i have is management

they have great tentaments, great mines etc, but from memory management is a bit slow at things...

that was one of the reasons why i jumped ship in januaray

[shasta]

Strat

Check out the link...

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/presentation/9bf31c7ff062936a96d3c8bd1f8f2ff3.pdf

Mentions coming online from June 2008, & full capacity by March 2009.

[STRAT]

Hi fellas, When is the Lithium/Potash expected to come on line?? Have been pondering. No, sratch that. F@#king about and appear to have missed the boat on this one.

[Tech Step]

I managed to get in last week at 20.5c on the recommendation of this discussion and some "badgering" from Shasta.

Thanks all and good luck to all holders....

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by STRAT

Hi fellas, When is the Lithium/Potash expected to come on line?? Have been pondering. No, sratch that. F@#king about and appear to have missed the boat on this one.


Strat

No you haven't missed the boat at all - I got in at 21c & it closed today at 24.5c ;)

ADY will easily surpass what FNT did for us, in fact in multiples if you hold onto this.[:0]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Tech Step

I managed to get in last week at 20.5c on the recommendation of this discussion and some "badgering" from Shasta.

Thanks all and good luck to all holders....


Cough, cough... badgering aye?...[:0]

Sit back & enjoy the ADY ride :D

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by Tech Step

I managed to get in last week at 20.5c on the recommendation of this discussion and some "badgering" from Shasta.

Thanks all and good luck to all holders....
So you say Shasta nagged you in to buying these eh? LOL. :DI recon he is clairvoyant. Further up the page he posted an answer to my question and addressed it to me 1 minute before I posted the question [:0] Now thats timing :D

[Hawke]

GAMEON.

[bullebak]

Wow... what a ride! 0.285 and diving... [8D]

[STRAT]

and all on the back of no news. Or did I miss something???? other than the entry point [:0]

[Damo79]

Hurrah!!!!!!!
After being in shares for about 3 years, without much luck (despite the great market conditions)...
My first 2-bagger!!!!

[Dazza]

needs to consolidate aorund 26-28 mark :D

from previous high

[Hawke]

Bang Im out - off to the boatshop.

Hawke- searching for fish.

[Damo79]

I don't know if anyone has posted this before:

http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Projects/Lithium_Problem_2.pdf

Makes very interesting reading. Mentions ADY a few times, and not necessarily in a good light.

Overall, it paints a negative picture of Li-ion batteries. Basically saying the supply constraints mean they'll never be able to power the worlds vehicles to any great extent. However, I definately get the idea that we have no worry at all about ADY "flooding" the market with lithium when they come online. In fact, this report seems to think that if world production doubles in the next 3 years, it will still be supply constraints that hold back the li-ion battery developement.

Ok, so maybe li-ion batteries will never power all our vehicles. What it does mean though is that in the short to medium term, lithium prices will be strong. And I think I'm understating that...

Cheers
Damo

[bullebak]

Thanks Damo79, very informative.

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by STRAT


quote:Originally posted by Tech Step

I managed to get in last week at 20.5c on the recommendation of this discussion and some "badgering" from Shasta.

Thanks all and good luck to all holders....
So you say Shasta nagged you in to buying these eh? LOL. :DI recon he is clairvoyant. Further up the page he posted an answer to my question and addressed it to me 1 minute before I posted the question [:0] Now thats timing :D


Did you pull your post?

I saw it & that's why i answered it, else i am clairvoyant & that scares me...[:0]

[Scuffer]

This little birdy is starting to fly, awfully tempted to sell some thing and buy a few more.

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by shasta


quote:Originally posted by STRAT


quote:Originally posted by Tech Step

I managed to get in last week at 20.5c on the recommendation of this discussion and some "badgering" from Shasta.

Thanks all and good luck to all holders....
So you say Shasta nagged you in to buying these eh? LOL. :DI recon he is clairvoyant. Further up the page he posted an answer to my question and addressed it to me 1 minute before I posted the question [:0] Now thats timing :D


Did you pull your post?

I saw it & that's why i answered it, else i am clairvoyant & that scares me...[:0]
I never touched the original post. Dont be scared, it will only add to your reputation for being able to pick em ahead of time ;)

[Halebop]

A frenetic few days that's for sure. Happy to be up in such a quick fashion. Just maybe there is something in those charts after all? Here's another one...

Weak close but still emphatically above the support / resistance line. Massive volumes for several days now. It appears about 12% of the company's shares have traded hands back and forward over the last couple of days. With that much "hot money" trading activity there could be a bit of selling pressure into any weakness. Will be interesting to see if the price holds at 25+ over the next few days. I'm picking we won't have to wait long for mid 30s to early 40s...

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/7397/ady2obvcx6.gif

[Dazza]

yes that gap today i did not like!!

previous days trading didnt have any gaps of which i was happy as

i hope it does reach a low of 24.5 then just stabilise aorund 26 mark would be great

then off to the 30s :D

[Halebop]

Gaps don't have to be plugged (if they did we'd be in some potential trouble with the gap on the left side of the same chart above). When we're talking 1 cent it's not much of a gap to fill in any case and the "traditional" half way mark is conveniently at the support / resistance line.

[Hawke]

Yeah stuff all the gaps- lets get into the 30's.
-just where this leg up is to stabilise- 26-28c?

I did get back in at 25.5 at end trading (sold all for 27.5 at yesterdays start)- just scooping of a little cream.

Hawke.

[STRAT]

Hi fellas. Got on board this morning at 24.5

[Hawke]

Great entry Strat! I hope you got enough at that price.
ADY is on the move again- All aboard?? Toot toot.

While I love to trade- I dont like being out of ADY- To be out and have Vehicle Major team up with the Lithium project.....would be a big DOOOOH!

Hawke.

[bullebak]

Welcome aboard STRAT! [8D]

[shasta]

Welcome Strat

ADY has found a healthy retreat to 24.5c & ready for the next leg up...

The story is only just getting out.

[slam]

Picked up some today:)
Happy to get in at these levels

gta
Slam