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Packersoldkidney
25-01-2005, 01:18 AM
Got a leg up recently because of Huntleys - when the spotlight spotlights else where maybe worth having a look. Got their fingers in a few pies - iron ore and gold among them. Worth a look as some think these blokes and their company are undervalued.

OneUp
25-01-2005, 02:16 AM
Thanks for that POK. After your post I checked out a valuation report for CMR at http://www.mpsecurities.com.au/pubs/pdf/CMR_Update_Jan05.pdf . The numbers seem a little incredible. However, if anything like accurate, CMR would indeed appear to be attractive for purchase.

Packersoldkidney
28-01-2005, 02:21 PM
Rupert: I'm in. Let's hope it doesn't go the same way as Unwired, though. (!)

Cooper
28-01-2005, 04:27 PM
Some good reading guys, something to do over the weekend. Cheers for the efforts.

mercury
30-01-2005, 07:06 PM
so why is it sleeping?
Merc

Mick100
30-01-2005, 08:51 PM
They have not done a BFS (bankable feasability study) as yet. Most of the metals are contained in the suphide resource which is very difficult to extract the metals from. Extracting the metals from the sulphide resource is very complex and will require a totally differint plant to that used on the oxide resource. The cost of this plant is estimated to be around $250m.

I'm going to watch this one and see if they can increase their oxide resource, through the future drilling program, which would make it alot more attractive than it is currently.


Mick



PS, thanks for bringing this one to my attention Packers

Packersoldkidney
31-01-2005, 12:15 AM
No problem, Mick. Hope it goes places.

OneUp
31-01-2005, 05:18 AM
Any thoughts on the geological risk factors that might prevent the oxide resource being developed?

Halebop
01-02-2005, 09:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by rupert

Sorry Guys cant get the links to work[xx(]


Announcements (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=cmr)

David Hardman
09-02-2005, 05:20 PM
Poor old Compass made for a southly direction today.. Down 10%

Looks like support at 30.. If breaks that then look out below.

Disc - I picked up a few last week :-\

Packersoldkidney
09-02-2005, 05:37 PM
Sure sorry about that Mr Hardman. Hurting along with ya, but remember this thing won't come good for some time - but when it does it should be roolly good, and current prices will more 'n likely look like a steal.

David Hardman
09-02-2005, 06:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

Sure sorry about that Mr Hardman. Hurting along with ya, but remember this thing won't come good for some time - but when it does it should be roolly good, and current prices will more 'n likely look like a steal.


POK. The stock is in my super fund and its only a small holding. Its locked away for sometime.

Talking about super...

I have recently moved my super to www.netwealth.com.au

They have just enabled sharetrading for their super acounts.

This now makes it possible for those with only low super balances (sub 100k) to actively manage their super themselves in a cost effective manner. SMSF are too expensive for people with small balances.

Netwealth charge me .8% management fee and $20 per trade. They handle all the paper work, tax returns etc

When you compare that to putting your money into a managed fund and paying 2-3% it pretty good value.

David

pago
09-02-2005, 06:18 PM
hi, i dont understand the sell down,its a spec,but at these prices, im a buyer,hugh upside,patience,cheers pago.

David Hardman
08-03-2005, 05:13 PM
Rupert

Something got this stock moving along nicely late in the afternoon session.

Largest daily volume for 3 months and third largest day ever.

Stock up 8% on the close.

Will be interesting to see if it can hold above 38

robbo
08-03-2005, 10:48 PM
CMR

Initial thoughts are that this is one VERY VERY interesting Potential Mining Producer... Rupe.... very well spotted...

Guess what the first thing I always look at is ???

Answer: How much CASH have they got left, before they have to pass the Hat around again......

In CMR's case we do indeed have a Good Cash reserve, even very good all things considered....namely, a nice healthy $4.88 millions Cash reserves in the Bank...:):) [^]

By the Way, Rupe, have you got any idea, before I've got to 'go a searchin...as to how many options...quoted and unquoted, in the money and in excrow etc etc...have CMR got hangin out there...don't bust a boiler if ya don't know, only quickly let us know,one way or the other would be quite helpful; if that is okay....

only if ya do Rupe, coz otherwise I can pull it up, without too much Hassle....

Another point is that CMR being say..at a guess... Market Cap estimate... approx ## $32 Millions...we are possibly going to maybe see short term a bit more stretch in the share price just a teeny little bit more though, UNLESS there is bigish news.......

Why so IMO...???

Well, seems that the conventional wisdom...(and mining has a habit of NOT being conventional !!!).... is that the market is really loathe to rate miner explorers ....more than a Market Cap of around approx: generally speaking of ## $38 Millions to Market Cap of ## $41 Millions or so...(as opposed to Producers, or At the least that the MARKET consensus is; that they...>>>.[the explorer] are on the very near verge of some decent levels of DEFINITE ie: 2-3 months away sort of max....or in early next quarter; THAT THEY ARE IN FACT def. going into ACTUAL earnings accretive Mining exportable production....("this rule of thumb"....seems to apply, from my observations and studies.... but of course is IMO ONLY..., and seems to occur approx; at least 90% --95% of the time, and the exception/s....can naturally always disprove the RULE !!![:p] ...)

Now when we look at the 18-36 month market cap chart and price chart of CMR...we may see the potential short term current Issue/Problem:

Putting it succinctly Rupe ; the market may be implicitly saying: "it's been a while now guys, show us where the Money is Honey" this impatient attitude has possibly set in to a varying degree.... ?? [?][|)]... and just maybe may have begun to pervade the CMR share price action atmosphere over the last ## 6 months or so....[?][?]

However of course; for CONTRARIANS ,,( or those who have REALLY done the hard yards & necessary but admitedly kind of boring quant. and qual. cold assessment & Research and analysis & in depth technical homework........ and are thus really in the know):....>>>...

Then, there can lie a potential HUGE opportunity...but also must be borne in mind that there is the risk of your investment lieing a bit dormant for another 12 months....etc etc etc

But really these are just MY initial superficial and "off the cuff" --and at first glance; sort of ruminations and observations vis-a-vis CMR ....[?]

One also HAS to get studying a share like this particualy; really long & hard--(taking nothing for granted and never relying on Brokers Reports.....who are trying to sell the sahre and "pony up" the price for their own silly agenda...) and therefore prudent thorough diliegence & get need to get nice & close to the TRUE nature

OneUp
08-03-2005, 11:24 PM
Robbo, they have a modest amount of cash but (unlike you know who ;)) they're gonna have quite a bit of capex to get the stuff out of the ground, in the region of $40 million from memory. So the prospect of a large dilution looms. Maybe it will be worthwhile to buy in about the time when they raise this substantial new equity (which would also be closer to production and cashflows)?

Interesting you think the share price could be quiet for the next 12 months. Maybe that's so, and for the moment I am keeping an eye on this one, but have not invested yet. With luck will sell out of MAL when it's fully valued and reinvest in CMR closer to the time it is set to start production.

robbo
09-03-2005, 09:25 AM
Yeah, okay, hmmmmm... right then One Up.

Do seem to agree with just about all of the gist of that. Wish my "timing" Crystal Ball was less opaque than yours though ....[}:)] :)[:p]

Trouble is; that my Crystal Ball is all smudged with Crownie stains (and could be other kinds of white creamy stains too.....but we better not even think about going there ....;) [:0][:0])

Bottom line, appears that; from where we both sit, one set of Predictable earnings & consequent set of circs.(MAL) looks & feels more predictable than the other...while the other's upside (CMR), if Rupe's numbers have a decent goodly deal of significance(which I am sure they probably do, is ostensibly rather high and huge...)

'Tis the Perennial dilemna that all thinking Share Invetors constantly face; and always will have to confront.

Added to that, as we are now in somewhat Bullish Mining boom; chasing the big dollars in pref. to the relatively more predictable dollars (but maybe more modest) is of course the Big Temptation....

Takes a fair degree of discipline; and some understanding of mathematical probability; and indeed a Deeply wedded attachment to the Universal Truths, contained within the Law of Compounding; especially when applied say; ........... to....period, on period, on period, on period, ....etc... etc.... etc.... AMAZING...!!

Whatever the Base Starting Money Point // ie: the beginning Cash Capital; that one actually can rustle together and manage to begin with:... in Period One (1) and of course intelligently invest in quite predictable growth stocks to begin with ..... if one can internalize & live the Compounding Dynamic, and really "hang in there" until say; the fifth, and then even to the seventh compounded period .... Geeee Wizzzzz; she's a mighty very powerful Law though, as I'm sure you also do appreciate, One Up... !! [:p][:p] [8D][8D]

Thanks for the tip though, re the seemingly necessary $40 millions, in anticipated start up costs for CMR ..... is that ## fact on relatively good info ??

...but also guess, that if the CMR project is really big & significant enough; then that could also be relative I 'spose...

Have you looked much at CMR, One Up...??? How do you rate it, One Up ????

Do Appreciate and respect your opinions immensely One Up....so do let us know and drop us... down here at The Pub, a line or three...

Kind Regards,

Robbo:):)

kura
09-03-2005, 12:06 PM
I took opportunity to sell this morning @ .395, not that I dislike Coy (Has great prospects) I'm just taking a punt that price will drift lower once excitement dissapates.

fisho
09-03-2005, 12:08 PM
Just what has riggered the excitement ?

Packersoldkidney
09-03-2005, 02:04 PM
Doing a tour to pump support with the instos. Or has that been and gone? My head is a bit frazzled - 5 nights on red wine will do that to ya.

Packersoldkidney
09-03-2005, 03:40 PM
Ayaaaah. Compass also featured in an AFR article today along with a few other mining 'juniors' like Copper Strike, Kingsgate, Mincor, Minara, Lihir and Consolidated. "Mining minnows swim with the tide." Unfortunately its subscriber only on-line, so no link to it.

Sauce
09-03-2005, 04:31 PM
You should copy and paste the info POK. If you wouldnt mind of course [:I]

Regards,

Sauce [}:)]

Packersoldkidney
09-03-2005, 05:18 PM
Sauce - I don't subscribe to the AFR, I only buy it occacionally as it gets very repetitive after a while. Having said that I'll re-type the section of the article to do with Compass.

"Perth-based investment analysis group StockAnalysis, which specialises in resource sector stocks, likes what it sees at exploration hopeful Compass Resources NL.

Compass floated just before the October 1987 market crash, raising $10 million to fund work on its base metal polymetallic project at Batchelor, near Darwin.

The Area 55 contains more than 2.5 million tonnes of lead, 655,000 tonnes of copper, 100,000 tonnes of cobalt and a slightly smaller amount of nickel, as well as silver and zinc.

Backed by long-term shareholders Goldman Sachs JB Were investment fund Invia with 7.9 per cent, West Australian-based geologist Josh Pitt, who has 6.6 percent, and former JB Were researcher Peter Woodforde with 3.4 per cent, Compass concentrated on processing routes for open pit-based sulphide resources.

That plan failed due to high up-front costs but the rise in metal prices has helped firm up a simper plan based around the production of copper and cobalt.

The present plan involves a simple acid leach followed by solvent extraction and electrowinning to produce cathode copper plus high-value compounds of cobalt and nickel, while storing lead tailings for possible later processing.

Peter Strachan, an analyst at StockAnalysis, said a planned 'one million tonne a year plant could be in operation by late 2006 if all goes according to plan, producing about 10,000 tonnes a year of copper metal, 1000 tonnes per annum of cobalt and 800 t/pa of nickel. At current metal prices, the project would generate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about $47 million per annum for Compass."

I'll probably get burnt for putting that up - but I figure the AFR's lawyers will be intimidated by the Packer name, so hopefully I'll get away with it.

pago
09-03-2005, 05:52 PM
hi ,at last look,cmr up to 41.5c.it seems 40c has been a resistance point previously.this is probably no more then a rising tide lifts every boat.im holding,cheers pago.

cdchi1
09-03-2005, 08:00 PM
cognrats to those in it, unfortuantely i only have 50G shares (a small holding compared to other stocks I hold like IGO, HER and JML).

This thing is a potential OXR in the making...

Someone mentioned a CAPEX of 40 million...lets not forget thats for the oxide project which is only PART 1 of what will be a much much much bigger project...in fact potentially the largest polymetallic project in the world.

Why only a small amount of shares then? Well admittedly i sold half recently at around 37c (After taking placement for 100G at 30c)...and it is a high risk stock, this project has been around for a while. BUT we are now in an extended high metal prices environment...and this project imo WILL get off the ground.

Good luck to all other holders.

Cdchi1

Packersoldkidney
11-03-2005, 04:35 PM
Looking good, Rup, but I think they'll have to raise some cash at some stage, which will probably mean more buying opportunities.

David Hardman
11-03-2005, 06:33 PM
ASX gave CMR a speading ticket

They have just responded with the following

11 March 2005 Mr. A. Smythe Senior Companies Adviser Australian Stock Exchange Ltd 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 Dear Mr Smythe,

In response to your price query we respond as follows to the questions raised:
1. No
2. Not Applicable
3. No
4. No
5. Directors believe that the recent rise in the Company’s share price reflects a number of factors. Firstly, the resource market has performed strongly as investor interest in this segment has increased. Secondly, we believe that companies such as Compass with large resource inventories of base and speciality metals are being favourably viewed by investors. In Compass' case this interest has been enhanced by the announcement of plans to evaluate the early development of the Browns Oxide Project which has also been well received by investors, analysts and advisors. Thirdly, in our Quarterly Report to the ASX for the period ending 31 December 2004, the Company announced that it had applied for a number of new tenements with favourable uranium, gold and platinum group metal potential. These applications together with the Company’s granted tenements in the Batchelor region give Compass control of the great majority of the high potential Rum Jungle uranium field. In view of the increased interest in uranium, the potential of these areas may be recognized by investors. Compass is currently compiling extensive data from uranium exploration programs conducted between the 1950s to the 1980s. As far as we are aware no uranium exploration has been carried out in this area since the late 1980s. The Company will announce any results that are significant when the initial data compilation program is complete, which is expected within the next few weeks.
Finally, the recent take-over activity in the sector, in particular that in relation to WMC Resources has been positive for the sector as a whole. 6. We confirm that in the view of directors the Company is in compliance with the Listing Rules, and in particular Listing Rule 3.1.

Packersoldkidney
14-03-2005, 12:35 PM
Shysa.

Packersoldkidney
14-03-2005, 12:44 PM
Look at the buys and sells!

Sauce
14-03-2005, 01:10 PM
Jealous!

I never got in :(, certainly regretting it now!

Lucky holders :D :D

Regards,

Sauce [}:)]

Mick100
14-03-2005, 01:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

Shysa.


When it gets to $3.50 (ten bagger) I'll shout you a beer packers

[8D]

Mick

Packersoldkidney
14-03-2005, 01:49 PM
Sweet. Just don't send it through the post, as spillage could be an issue.

robbo
14-03-2005, 06:45 PM
Howdee Rupert,

Great Call,

Got me loaded in just in TIME to catch The BUS there Gus...

and what a scenic ride....

As I have remarked on the MAL site where you alerted all us Malachites
quote:

your welcome to INVADE the MAL site with any more of your ......errr ...suggestions...

Crownies All round to Rupe !!

Many thanks mate...

Hugely wonderful Call Rupe...

Could keep flying all week I suspect...

probably aslo attrazcting a lot of ex WMR money looking for a nice new rise too I guess ???

But value is in the sentiment attached to the Concept behind the Iron Ore...Story and Rupe,

You bought HOME the Bacon ma boy.... Your a total LEGEND !!

By the way, what FIRST and initially triggered and alerted your interest to CMR mate, if its okay my a asking ???

Well done, and see the MAL thread for even more deserved compliments; from here at The PUB !! [:p][:p]:):)

PS. Plus we've got one horny Ingrid European bird//chick.... running around the pool table, chasing after POK [.... ;);)[:0]... which is making for a bit of a laugh,

you've got to check her out !!

Robbo :)

:D:Di]Originally posted by rupert[/i]

47 cents to 65 cents in morning trade. Crownies all round if it keeps going. Some one must be beating the drum on this share somewhere.

OneUp
14-03-2005, 07:50 PM
G'dday Robbo I reckon the sentiment that "there's a huge margin for error" with CMR is on the money. Also, it's always good to see Directors have large shareholdings. With the strength we saw Friday (new all time highs and all that) I decided to abandon attempts to time the market and picked a few up. (EDIT: I think I went over my cliche limit for the day).

Does anyone have an idea of why now, particularly, we are seeing such strength in CMR? The uranium mania? A newsletter recommendation? Or maybe it's the Robbo effect (up 75% since first mentioned!) ;)

Cooper
14-03-2005, 08:23 PM
Cheers POK.

Packersoldkidney
15-03-2005, 10:52 AM
This Grandmother sounds like a good deal: is she publicly listed so I can get shares in her?

Packersoldkidney
15-03-2005, 04:25 PM
(giggle)

cdchi1
15-03-2005, 08:01 PM
Rupert, just sent a cheque to that address, should bounce all the way down. Figure my chances of a stag profit pretty much the same as if i sent the cash to a tech ipo.

As for CMR, these posts are all great, and this site aint bad too (will become more active when i get the time), but no posts on CMR can compare to the ones Olympian does on HC...everytime i read his latest post, i get depressed for 'taking profits'.

Only holding a measly 30G now...however i WILL buy back in pullback (if any). I didnt do this at 31 after selling at 37...will not make the same mistake.

Cdchi1



quote:Originally posted by rupert

Currently my grandparents have a cross ownership arrangement where each own 50% of each other.
They 900,000 shares on issue are currently looking at a $100,000 capital raising to improve the looks of my grandmother via plastic surgery and therefor the resale value. The investment will ensure she can return to her previous employment at the Daily Planet and earn $1000 per night. Payback is therefor under 6 months and dividends should be payable in the first year. Please send all money in a brown paper bag and deposit to
Locked Drain no 5
Spencer st
Melbourne 3000

Packersoldkidney
15-03-2005, 10:39 PM
Just checked out Olympian on HC, CD, has posted a cracker of a paragraph or two on CMR just now. The man is a Believer with a capital B.

SimonSays
16-03-2005, 01:06 PM
Sorry kids this is just another cyclical spruik. Take a look what they said about Browns 2 years ago. It was an Ausmelt Project, then a Doe Run Project and an Engitec project. When people start to run out of money to pay their salaries this sort of stuff happens. The Government helped them for a while but they spent all that. Next week they will tell the truth and call it a Uranium Project - that's the big rumour - ha - it's always been a Uranium project i.e. Rum Jungle. Do some research guys - a very small leach project in some of the seasonally wettest ground on Earth ! Constructed by early 2006 lol - what will the indigenous people say? Better also check out who gets paid royalties, whether RDM owns some of the strata rights etc etc etc. 15 billion in the ground - probably take 15 billion years to extract. The only cash this Company is like to generate in the short term is from investors !

Xerof
16-03-2005, 07:35 PM
If your Grandmother has had the plastic surgery, I might be tempted to take half as crownies, then a half with her. In that order of course

Xerof

SimonSays
16-03-2005, 08:16 PM
Sorry to have offended your status consciousness, but we are all kids in this Game ! I have known the stock since establishment and know the Area well. As for the Project emphasis switch, if you want to check out the metallurgist's performance, you had better check out the history of Allstate. He was also around when Browns was a massive Ausmelt project. Nothing has changed other than if you look at the notes to the accounts you will see he has been promoted from consultant to director to give some credo to this new tank leach story (theory!). When you hear shortly that this play is about a U3O8 rumour, you may start to reflect and read back into the history. Also take a look at the Broker and the brokers linkages - not too prime I would say. Yes we are in a Metal price boom but the fortunes of a company in generating a return, which you can apply whatever multiples you like to, depends on the achieveability and timing of the Project in its highly modest but still complex form. 15 Billion Dollars worth of highly and unusual cobalt dominated polymetallics at one end and uranium dominated highly complex polymetallics at the other. Many have pondered over how to split this stuff up. There are many characters involved in this play -Government, Indigenous Australians, a Company called Guardian and its owner, Red Metals control of Strata title to certain ground, Rio, Cameco etc etc. Having lived in Darwin for a while, I dont think you can get them all in a room and achieve permitting in order to reach production by early 2006, good luck, 2007 also good luck. Sleep well !

Mick100
16-03-2005, 08:52 PM
I was under the impression that the mining of the oxide resource was fairly straight forward being close to the surface and reqiring a very basic proceessing plant.

I'm aware that the mining of the sulphide resource is much more complex and will require a completely different processing plant at a cost of about $250m.

Which resource are you reffering to Simonsays?
I won't sleep a wink until I find out.


Mick

SimonSays
16-03-2005, 09:59 PM
Mick. I dont want to disturb your sleep, but I do suggest you find an unbiased metallurgical professional and get him or her to take a hard look at this particular oxide ore. Ask how Compass expects to achieve 60%+ Cobalt proportionate revenues from the Copper-Cobalt Concentrate that they refer to. How do you seperate to achieve 99.6% grade Co ? It is cobalt that produces the real economic result. You should also take a look at Cobalt price dynamics - there are various forms of Co you know ! The Broker Promoter does not comment on this nor do I believe he or she has any competance to be making financial conclusions about the metallurgical assumptions made by the Company. The same dilemmas on concentrate seperation occur in the big project assumptions also. Good luck. I suspect at these prices the objective is to raise further capital ! Accordingly the dilution usuually follows the spruiking. Doesn't it ?

pago
16-03-2005, 10:25 PM
hi simon,very interesting,correct me if im wrong,you are saying the resourses are proven but we dont have the tech to produce/separate the minerals.have you any view as to why the tank leach theory does not work?what are your doubts re the uraniam,u308,rumours?cheers pago.

SimonSays
16-03-2005, 10:48 PM
There are rumours flying around Sydney about a 2-step spruiking process to allow for some big fund raisings at CMR. Interesting move since there are no really top notch respectable brokers driving that process. These things of course happen nowadays - just take a look at the number of small mining companies that produce nothing, but have CEO's on AUD 300K + and their various attendants and sycophants on at least AUD 200K+. Yes - make hay while the sun shines as someone recently posted !!! Who's hay you may ask. As you know, a bit of heat has come off the Uranium equation since the ERA concerns of last year. Undoubtedly at the Whites pit end ( Rum Jungle Project ) of Browns trend there is contiguous Uranium that can be repackaged to imply value. Yes - you are on the right track pago - there are resources and reserves by definition and the problem has always been that metallurgical seperation, whether the large or small project, is still an issue. With Cobalt traders pay for grade and you have to get the grade from seperation in the concentrate. As for the AUD 250 million big project, I think if you were to ask Ausmelt, they may tell you that the project cost number may be larger than twice that. I think they may have sold their shares a long time ago.

Packersoldkidney
16-03-2005, 11:54 PM
This is great stuff, keep it up.

Always think that opposing views should be aired - thanks for the input, SimonSays. Looks like we shouldn't count our chooks before their hatched - perhaps we should all be thinking again about CMR. Personally having read all the available material, I'm still pro the company and think it has a big future, but that is not to say I'm in love with it and won't change my mind about its percieved good characteristics like a shot if Simon's views are proven to have some merit. Good time to change minds, too, with a healthy profit under our belts! We probably all have some quick researching to do before the s.p. tumbles into the forties. (that is if it is heading that way)

This sort of thread is what share trading/investing forums are all about.

SimonSays
17-03-2005, 12:08 AM
By all means ask the Broker or the Company or indeed the Metallurgist about some of the issues raised. With so much money flooding in to the market many are taking advantage to underpin their future salaries and expenses. Browns has been a polymetallic metallurgical puzzle/debacle/disappointment for many many years. Go back to the days of Rio - CRA - that's when most of the money was spent there. In general the small project metallurgy is not PROVEN and the story based on cobalt will not sustain the values assumed. That's why you will hear about Uranium soon. Even the small project requires a large commitment of capital for such a small market cap stock. How can you prove up the process to ensure the metallurgical seperation, raise the capital required and get all the i's dotted and t's crossed to come into production within one year ??? Good night.

pago
17-03-2005, 12:37 AM
hi simon,i had understood from other sources that1,the tank leach method,would be used to get the project moving,is this not feasible?cheers pago.

pago
17-03-2005, 12:49 AM
hi,pok,what do you think,email ,cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
17-03-2005, 11:22 AM
Pago: a little busy today - I'll get in touch this evening.

SimonSays
17-03-2005, 11:38 AM
I agree that it looks like a good spruik at the moment, but I dont think there is a high probability that a Project will be built. It seems that from reading back a few years there was an oxide circuit in previous Projects and it was taken out because of poor economics. The inferred highly oxidised material at Browns seems to only last about 2-3 years - so no great project even on paper. Just read back a few months where it says the total 5 year Project seems to require material from a different area known as Area 55. Not sure what that does to the metallougical seperation assumptions. Now, as has been pointed out, metal prices hypothetically justify a feasibility assesment but what sort - it seems that it is all in-house. It all seems about "believe us we are going to build it from used parts and dont need a traditional bank feasibility", however they say they need some bank debt. Hence I guess they need to keep the price up some how to continue to be able to raise more equity.
I think it is difficult to figure out whether this promotional phase will come to an abrupt end on not and I keep hearing rumours about it being a uranium play. What I would be carefully watching is whether more substantial or higher tier brokers start to appear to support the stock. It is nice to see the Directors issue of partly paid shares to ensure they do not dilute. LOL.





[/quote]

pago
17-03-2005, 09:40 PM
hi,cmr plans from previous ann,the browns oxide ore strategy to produce copper,cobolt,nickel ishoped to start early 06.news is expected from cmr in april 05 re,confirm process predictions and cost projections,detail the engineering phase and funding and marketing.the go decision is expected mid 05.at current metal prices the project could earn ebitda of 47/50 mill pa.imo if this plan goes to plan,even with a share/cap raising,the numbers look impressive.cheers pago.

cdchi1
17-03-2005, 11:50 PM
Hi guys,

For the record i sold out the rest of my holding at 57c...the 30G I ahd left was not worth holdiong in my opinion.

Also i expect a significant pullback...and am hopihn for one to buy back in. Im not really a fan of companies that SPURT as its usually not sustainable, and i generally sellout on the spurt...then either berate myself if it keeps going, or sigh in relief when it falls abck (and buy back in).

I like Compass, have not changed my opinion one iota (despite SimonSays' comments).

I will have a buy back in target of around 40c...if it gets there great, if not and keeps venturing up...oh well, you know ill have my head on a toilet rim, slamming the seat down repeatedly :)

As for what SimonSays states...all good points, and worth considering...but remember, its a junior mining company witha 'potential' project...risks are going to exist. You ahve to ask yourself...

1/ Are the risks too high for you?

2/ Do you think it has a pretty good chance of overcoming these risks, compared to other companies?

3/ If it does overcome the risks, is the reward/risk potential better than other companies?

OXR had plenty of project risk including VERY low copper prices, and the worst country risk you could expect...look at it now.

IGO had plenty of risk in terms of people stating the long resource was not big enough at the then nickel prices...look at it now.

Another extreme example i guess is Minara...having the previous nickel laterite mine which was an abolsute disaster under old name Anaconda...sent it to the wall...cant get much riskier than that...but look at its now.

Of course there are many that have crashed and burned on a promis...Kingstream, Centaur, Australian Magnesium, even established companies like Sons of Gwalia

CMR has plenty of risks...it will either go bust or dawdle along doing nothing...or it will succeed.

You have to make a choice on what YOU think, dont just run off because someone states risks, no matter how well informed that person is. Take them into consieration in your assessment by all means though.

Cheers & good luck!

Cdchi1

SimonSays
18-03-2005, 11:09 AM
Wow, if your are comforted by analysts in the Superfund business then I think you should probe to find out who the funds are and ask the analysts questions directly. I must say I know some good people in that market segment as well as absolute turkeys. You may find that some of them are so gullible they base their opinions on what was written by little Martin Place Securities.

You will probably find that Martin Place is more at the "Mums and Dads" end of the market in any case. I am not saying that there is no spuiking potential in the stock, but please dont tell me the leach process is so simple. You need to focus on the seperation issues from the concentrate and the remaining electrowinning process. This is a very very small very very short term conceptual project at best. There has got to be another story to follow on Uranium ! Take a very close look at the availability of oxidised low cost to mine/strip ore reserves. Your comment relating to external consultants needs to be highlighted in particular. I have an engineering background and can tell you that all opinions by consultants at the pre-feasibility and feasibility stages are always highly conditioned in any case. Because many brokers dont understand that stuff and it is often counterproductive to their needs, they tend to leave it out. Dont get me wrong I do support entrepreneurial behavour but substance is required.

In this case there is no consultant focused feasibility, but rather it is "in-house" based upon the assumption of "innovative finance". I suggest that innovative financing means get the share price up, spruik the story and keep raising equity. The real test here is whether they can get the big time brokers involved. One of their Directors has good links back to Ivanhoe and Friedland and I think he has possibly done some good work getting some offshore money into the stock over the last month.

SimonSays
21-03-2005, 03:52 PM
U3O8 ! Announcement to follow - started to leak 2 weeks ago. Oh yes, I am sure there will be an interesting announcements. A Uranium Project - now that's obviously a fait accomplis. Maybe there's AUD 30 billion in the ground now. It's interesting watching the crossings over the past few weeks - its part of the "innovative financing strategy" no doubt.

Mick100
21-03-2005, 04:10 PM
Keep the info coming simonsays, I'm always listening
Good to hear from people who obviously have more in depth info on this company than I do.

Your not the first person I have heard expressing doubts as to wheather the browns project would get off the ground.

Watching closely - still holding


Mick

SimonSays
21-03-2005, 09:16 PM
I'm not trying to De-spruik this stock, but I have seen all this happen before. I would hate to see the small investor get left holding the stock when he or she discovers the bungy cord has no elastic! You all need to read and also do a little research on the metallurgist's history. He's been around Compass for a long time, but only became a director recently. Its his opinion that you will depend on, because they aint going through the traditional feasibility process. I was into a stock called Allstate - Amen ! - Dommage Dommage - just type in "Allstate Explorations" and "Elvish" into Google and read the unfortunate story. I like Directors who support shareholders interests as if they were their own.

Mick100
21-03-2005, 11:34 PM
Simonsays
The impression I'm getting is that allstate got shafted, firstly by otter and secondly by macquarie

I'm a longterm holder in GPG who had a controlling stake in otter when it went belly up so I am vaugely familiar with some of the otter story. I recall that GPG got some money out of otter in the end which they had not expected to get, as it turns out, by shafting allstate.

Sounds like macquarie had a small, isolated local community by the balls by threatening to flood the mine which led to allstate getting shafted again.

A question for you Simonsays
Was rod Elvish hooked up with macquarie at the time of the allstate saga
ie, was he playing both sides


Mick

SimonSays
22-03-2005, 11:01 AM
Elvish was a consultant to Allstate and went on the Board to protect his interests ! Who signed the Mac Bank deal ?? Talk of and nature of a class action by Allstate shareholders ?? At this stage of a Project's potential development Academia always makes a greater impact than commercial competance when spruiking a stock based on hypothetically derived inputs and outcomes !

Mick100
22-03-2005, 11:54 AM
"A question for you Simonsays
Was rod Elvish hooked up with macquarie at the time of the allstate saga
ie, was he playing both sides"

====================

Or put it another way
Do you have strong suspicions that he was playing both sides
From the reading i have done it appears Rod Elvish has done quite a bit of consulting work for mac bank.



Mick

Mick100
22-03-2005, 02:14 PM
The ownership of allstate in 1997

Beconsfield gold - 38.5%

otter - 49.9%

Burdkin and Puublic - 11.6%

(the publics share in allstate was 4% in 1997)

-------------------------

Even though Rod Elvish was the chairman of allstate when it went bust I don't think he would have had alot of influence over the two major shareholders - Beconsfeild and Otter.

Looks to me like allstate was the sacrificial lamb of otter and beconsfield. the major shareholders would have been pulling the strings here - looking after their own interests.

Elvish may very well have been acting in the best interests of shareholders which in this case are beconsfeild and otter - not the public.


Mick

SimonSays
22-03-2005, 07:05 PM
I dont think he did too much while there in real terms before or after 2001 - but wasn't it a wonderful result for Macquarie ?!

Now you have all got the drift as announced today - as previously mentioned Compass is becoming a URANIUM STOCK. I think Josh sees some great opportunities albeit there is nothing world class there but yet again I am sure Bazza will measure its value in the ground where it is more likely to remain of course.

The idea no doubt is to spruik now on two levels - so as to make hay (cash - future salaries etc ) while the sun shines. The baby oxide project(lower case intended) faces many of the same problems as the big project was facing - seasonal floods, NT Government, Royalties, Third Party Royalties, NLC. etc etc. It is investment opportunism at best where the project is very short term and requires considerably more work and a linkage to the sulphides in the future.

pago
22-03-2005, 07:27 PM
hi,cmr ann today,states uranium potential.the report is from historical data,but i quote,it clearly demonstrates the excellent uranium potential of the region.drill programmes are planned during the dry season.i could be cynical,s simon would say this ann was expected to raise s.p. before the expected cap.raising.having looked at the ur grades,they dont look too bad.it seems most ur mining at present have average ur grades in excess of .10% of ur.it seems rum jungle was previously mined 1954/1971 with grades between.27-.43 %.the mine was closed leaving major pollution problems.the wet season is another issue.any views? cheers pago.

Mick100
22-03-2005, 07:37 PM
Simon, I think your view of the browns project is biased due to your unfortunate experience with allstate.

You have to be prepared for anything with the miners. I had a good chunk of ny cash in gympy gold when southland collery caught fire at the end of 2003 - (100% loss)

The chinese have bought southland now and no doubt the coal mine will be up and running again one day making heaps of money. I'm not going to get upset if it does become profitable again one day - the managment done what they had to do at the time - there's no going back.


Mick

SimonSays
22-03-2005, 08:18 PM
There is no really unfortunate outcome on Allstate for me Mick.

I do want to ensure my Kiwi friends (and Oz friends also of course) dont fall foul to the bungy without elastic analogy referred to earlier. I am of the days of Waihi and AUR et alia. I have some engineering and other experience of the most tectonially fractured country on earth and that which was once known to some of us as "The Land of the Long White Put Option" under my friend Ruth R.

What I am saying is "be bloody careful" - there aint much substance there mate ! - of course I repeat there is money to be made in this stock and they are learning to be good spruikers, but they do not deal with top notch brokers. They do have the strength of some bright people in their "midst" like Josh and Neil, but their small oxide project is nothing more than amusing to me. I know Cu price dynamics and have produced masses of cobalt in my time. I know all about all the types of Cobalt and Cobalt chemicals that are marketed and I do understand metal credits very well. The hypothetical situation is that the arithmatic indicates a high dependence on cobalt. Somebody posted a link to a very good article on this thread earlier on that subject. Luke isnt really interested to buy stuff in these miniscule type of quantities and would not contract with CMR on the expectation of seriously believing he was going to get the Co in the form he requested out of the tank leach in 2006.

I told you Uranium was the new frontier for CMR many days ago. Having lived in the NT I know the theatre of Browns and Ranger (and even Jabiluka) very very well. If you had reviewed the CMR trading live over recent weeks you would have seen the crossings and the share price games that are becoming quite sophisticated. Dont be on the losing side.

cdchi1
22-03-2005, 09:45 PM
Its all a bit too hot for me at the moment (and I live in Melbourne not NT!). As stated earlier, i sold in the 50s...i just am not a big fan of holding shares that really go bang in the night, unless there is a substantial announcement behind it. In the case of CMR tehre wasnt, apart from a few 'uranium whispers'. Not good enough.

Look from a personal POV, I think the Browns poly project is feasible at current market prices (and even lower). As Ive said before I will buy back in once the SP settles down and the hype over uranium is no longer influencing the price.

As SS saids, there are some interesting trades going through at the moment, and some players are making a lot of cash (others are losing alot). The SP is being played in my opinion, not a situation i like to be involved in.

But the Browns project will be feasible imo and as such, i will be back in as the potential around it is enormous, not just the 'starter' project but the ongoing extension. Just will not be hanging around the stock while the uranium hype is being pushed...

Cheers

Cdchi1

SimonSays
22-03-2005, 11:08 PM
The Browns Project has been around for a very very long time. Rio spent more than any on it and retain a royalty interest. When you hear that X $ has been spent on Browns, it invariably includes what Rio spent, which is most of it. Look at all that value they left in the ground. LOL. CMR purchased it as a company maker - albeit a metallurgical dilemma of an orebody which is discussed frequently at conferences. If you look at the history you will see it has had many spruiks and capital raising peaks based on technology windows of opportunity eg. Ausmelt Lance and Engitec and they have also had a go at times of high relative metal prices. Memories are very short and as mums and dads move on then new ones appear. The oxide play is just another and does not lead into a logical development of the sulphide resource or Area 55. Such a small ore-scarce oxide project is convenient as a spruik because there are no engineers to question its feasibility and nobody who markets Cobalt could give a stuff about it as they would prefer to retain more certain and substantial supply lines. Dont forget royalties, ownership of strata rights by RDM, Guardian etc etc. Many have their heads in the trough on this one at the moment. Even a few who were saying that Browns was boring last year.

cdchi1
22-03-2005, 11:34 PM
SimonS

The oxides isnt the only revenue source that CMR will be getting to fund sulphides (though i personally think that is all that will be required plus some capex debt funding).

ALK gold at Tomingley is more than likely to get developed...that will add minimum $10 million to CMR coffers on current gold resource alone...expect to be upgraded continuously.

Territory Iron also has a royalty agreement on the BAtchelor iron ore resources...again currently with a minimum value of around 10 million on current resources...though this is more questionable than the gold resource in terms of development.

I think you are also being a little tough in terms of the likelihood of the Oxides project getting into production, ie you are being absolute...noone can be absolute. Metal prices may have been high before but they were not sustainably high, whereas in this period it would appear that metal prices are in for a bullish time for several years (at least a decade imo incl the last 2 years). Yes many partners have come and gone on the Compass project, but many due to low metal prices, the need to fund other project, internal problems etc. Yes the deposit is complex to extract, but so was Minara's deposit under the old Analconda name...it eventually got going though due to high metal prices and solving of processing problems.

Yes Compass probably could have done a better job with the project to date, arguably it should already be in production. This doesnt say much positive for the management. But I think they will get their act together. The resource imo is viable for extraction, the oxides at least at the moment but there are risks eg extremely highindustry costs, the oil price, strength of the AUD etc etc. I do understand your concerns...I have them too. Its far from a no-brainer. Its a risk, if its too high for some, by all means stay away and buy something you are more comfortable with.

People should just remember the risk/reward lessons they are taught in investing 101...you are getting into this to get a high reward, so accept the high risk. Sorry to preach.

Now talking about high risk, I hold Intec if you want to get into complex deposits and extremely high risk investments (see Hellyer tailings project) :D

Cdchi1



quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

The Browns Project has been around for a very very long time. Rio spent more than any on it and retain a royalty interest. When you hear that X $ has been spent on Browns, it invariably includes what Rio spent, which is most of it. Look at all that value they left in the ground. LOL. CMR purchased it as a company maker - albeit a metallurgical dilemma of an orebody which is discussed frequently at conferences. If you look at the history you will see it has had many spruiks and capital raising peaks based on technology windows of opportunity eg. Ausmelt Lance and Engitec and they have also had a go at times of high relative metal prices. Memories are very short and as mums and dads move on then new ones appear. The oxide play is just another and does not lead into a logical development of the sulphide resource or Area 55. Such a small ore-scarce oxide project is convenient as a spruik because there are no engineers to question its feasibility and nobody who markets Cobalt could give a stuff about it as they would prefer to retain more certain and substantial supply lines. Dont forget royalties, ownership of strata rights by RDM, Guardian etc etc. Many have their heads in the trough on this one at the moment. Even a few who were saying that Browns was boring last year.

SimonSays
23-03-2005, 10:38 AM
Well Cdchi1 if you think ALK is going to bow down and allow CMR that revenue stream you need to talk with the people who know. Inky will not let that happen - there is a dispute looming and ALK will high grade the crap out of it ultimately. The boys from ALK keep taking from the till and many are sick and tired of the wonderful fees and income they receive - take a detailed look at the notes to the accounts. They are not in a hurry as you well know and as the share price confirms. Newcrest said great things to get them on the map of course.

I dont know what technology you think will be used to create the sulphide project but I certainly dont know any. Ausmelt let it be known that the big project blew out to a cost exceeding AUD 700 million and the Engitec technology which has been played with before by BHP and others is rocket science that has highly doubtful relevance to that project given the ore mix. Have a chat to Ausmelt - they were delighted to sell their shares at a massive loss I'll bet !

You dont sell Cobalt on street corners and nobody who needs Cobalt is going to get excited about the miniscule amount produced from very short term resources (only 2 years at Browns which in of themselves many people have doubts about). Oh how wet it gets there !

Oh metal prices will be sustainably high eh - well you better start studying the potential move of the Chinese currency into a snake band progressively moving upward as has been suggested by members of their Central Bank panel. And what if conflict with Taiwan eventuates even if China decides for geopolitical reasons that they would like to rearrange the World's economic deck chairs.

Sorry but this is a giant spruik and does not have much merit. Its a plaything - As another small Sydney broker said last year - "Browns is boring" and now he seems to have put his head in the trough with the others !
By contrast ALK looks like a much much better buy at 21 cents. They've actually done something before.

As for Hellyer I am very familiar as a Melbournite with the history of Aberfoyle and the Hellyer Mine.

For those students of the Allstate saga who wish to continue debating may I suggest a read of The Australian 25 November 2004 Page 24. Have a great day and enjoy the uranium stories that will follow.

SimonSays
23-03-2005, 04:30 PM
Rupert, the Browns site is approximately 7 kms north of Batchelor. The RESOURCE is located on both Crown Land and Aboriginal owned land. It is an environmentally sensitive area as the Finess River runs right through the middle of it. You will note on closing the Whites Uranium Deposit the Federal Government spent 16 Million AUD on the rehabilitation. This Pit still requires ongoing remediation and is located only 400 metres from the Browns Trial Pit. The Trial Pit I recall was used to get sulphide test material and only removed 250,000T but due to the rainfall it filled to the brim when the wet season commenced (approx 30m ) and I remember that CMR took 3 months to get a permit to pump this water due to location sensitivities. Any sulphide mining will cause a magnified environmental issue as any waste dumps etc. will have to be contained for water runoff due to the acidic nature of the outcome in that sensitive area. You are also forgetting that a small oxide orebody was mined approximately 200 metres from the Trial Pit and was forced to close down due to spiralling compliance and environmental costs. Finally the Oxide RESOURCE is shallow and requires a large disruption to the surface area which in turn will create issues of infrastructure relocation. I could say much much more if you are interested.

You will note that I have never said that this is not a good spruik because indeed that is all it is ! My greatest concern is the underlying quality of broking and investment support.

Wait for more hype on U3O8.

I think "they do things by halves" so you can expect that, if this mega-spruik goes well, you will see Browns and other regional assets spun off into a seperate company. That's what the lads in Martin Place in Sydney seem to be pointing to.

SimonSays
23-03-2005, 07:43 PM
Yeah probably the most intelligent question so far! Watched lots of crossings and silly games when it was in the 40's to early 50's. But since then interset has become more conventional. CMR Director Toll has had an association with Ivanhoe and I heard he was flogging the stock around old friends in the London and Canadian markets.

SimonSays
24-03-2005, 08:59 AM
Josh obviously needs to optimise his 10/25% holding in Compass related tenaments and requires shareholding presence to control the spinoff as previously referred to. The spinoff was rumoured around the time the CMR management debacle occured a few years back.

fisho
24-03-2005, 11:35 AM
Simon, thank you for your contributions. I have bailed on CMR at 100% gain and will have no regrets even if the sp goes to $2.00.
What do you recommend of the Aussie miners for re-investment?

SimonSays
24-03-2005, 11:43 AM
IGO and ALK are on my radar screen for totally different reasons - refer my post on IGO thread and comments here about Inky and the boys. After I position myself with another interesting one soon that I have had first hand experience of I will post next week hopefully. The only thing I dont know about CMR is whether they have found something new and significant and have not told anyone. I doubt it though. Worldbeater is crap and the other Lachlan Fold stuff doesnt mean much to me. The iron ore thing reeks of "me-too-ism" Their comments on Uranium seem to be relatively feeble and dont necessarily lead to anything . I am beginning to think there is an effort to spruik the crap out of it to bring about a demerger as mentioned before.

SimonSays
30-03-2005, 03:29 PM
CMR just revealed the Rio payment structure that I referred to way back - full of factual errors of course ! Seems to vary depending on which year Annual Report you read. Also note the payment structure made to the hot-shot metallurgist who doesnt need a feasibility study. Thought Westpac tellers got better pay.

SimonSays
30-03-2005, 11:35 PM
Which announcement ?
Toll's activity is quite interesting! His mate Friedland - the Canadian Twiggy comparative - has been out there spruiking a 30-40 year Australian Resources Boom. The TSX is a little boring at the moment. CMR's junior broker continues to spruik a uranium story, but so far only a feeble generic announcement. Maybe they will get the Rio royalty right next time they make an announcement (7.5% etc etc. and Cameco) and also reveal the other royalties and obligations. I dont think the directors know much more than I know otherwise they should disclose it. LOL. :D[:0]

Mick100
31-03-2005, 01:33 PM
I don't think you should expect a positive responce Rupert. I can't figure out what's motivating Simon but I don't think he's about to turn bullish on this company in the forseeable future

If CMR can manage to raise funds through a reputable financial insto then that would be a big plus for the company.

.

breaker1
01-04-2005, 11:27 AM
Simon, I find your commentary on CMR to more akin to someone with a familiarity in/with the company as opposed to a purely researched, from available info, knowledge.

Either way, your comments are thought provoking.

In some of your posts you mention RDM (Red Metal Mining)as holding strata title rights? on CMR ground. Could you expand on this please. I hold RDM and consider it to be, potentially, a very exciting junior player. Interestingly the structure is similar to CMR with very few tradeables on issue, Josh Pitt in the camp (and buying on market last year), Dodge Phelps supporting, good ground and good cash position.

Also interested why you are not posting on HC or SS in Aus regarding CMR.

thanks

Packersoldkidney
02-04-2005, 01:35 AM
Huntley's are back at it.

Packersoldkidney
02-04-2005, 01:57 AM
Link to it on Sharescene. I've seen so many of these things I tend to switch off when reading them now. No mention of the problems Simon refers to. Amazing what a resources boom can do to the memory - especially if bad memories lie between a broker and a bucket of money.

SimonSays
04-04-2005, 09:57 AM
Its wonderful to see this interest in CMR Browns Project aka "and wow there is some Uranium there too" has spawned yet another new member, Breaker. The Australian Government spent so much remediating the last one a few hundred metres away.

I do believe I know a lot of facts on this one. Research from fledgling brokers often avoids the inclusion of the most basic of facts, often omits the blindingly obvious and often de-emphasizes what is truly important in assesing value or predicting deliverability of a new mining project.

Engineering can be expressed by us in so many different ways from spacedreamer to space-cadet ! Pity some of the little brokers who have been playing with this one dont understand the facts or possibly they do! Josh tends to deal with the bigger brokers and has built things - that does not mean anything will be built at Browns - yet. As for RDM, read what has been published in recent weeks and if you still have questions then ask the Company - indeed ask two people in the Company to ensure that you get the same answer. If you dont, then challenge it. Oh also ask them if they are going to split their stock, to allow the big robust (dont you worry about a feasibility - it really is a reserve - believe us - and were sure its much bigger and... and.. ) low resource supported oxide project to fly alone. We feel happy having sold our holding during the last few weeks as we further tested the spruiking versus factual issues. As I have always said - this is a good spruik ! Some of our friends here in Melbourne have not been so fortunate in receiving equity for work that they wrote off. But 10 to 20 cent entry prices fortunately have allowed some wealth creation for some of us. My advice is to leave some for the next person on this one. As for my having said there were problems, I would be pleased to help reconcile anything that the Huntley Newspaper has published that is contradictory. Surely you dont think that is Research.

SimonSays
04-04-2005, 10:41 AM
Could be. I agree that Huntley's is good for spruiking. Most people read the conclusions and dont (or dont need to) test the fact as you will know.

"Financing" = Equity direct or indirect.

Have been visiting World's most tectonically fractured country where there are challenges for engineers like me.

breaker1
04-04-2005, 11:16 AM
Simon, thanks for your reply. I have no doubt CMR will do a Havilah and split the company, HAV shareholders have done very well in the past 18 months and like CMR, in my opinion, I don't think the majority of them give a toss so long as the opportunity to reap a profit on share sales exists.

That's the mentality prevailing in general at the moment and the best spruikers/marketers will get the attention of the opportunists.

RDM, in my opinion, is pure speculation but has better fundamentals than a lot of the others. CMR, well, money is being made and the punters are happy thus far. As mentioned by others in here it would appear the current momentum has a ways to go yet.

I hold RDM and have an insignificant enough amount of CMR not to be bothered if it booms or busts.

Enjoy reading your thoughts.

SimonSays
04-04-2005, 11:55 AM
I guess Vegas is like that eh. Its always great to make money from the efforts of fledgling brokers and Huntley type spruikerama when nobody could give a stuff about building projects or contributing to GDP. Page 15 of the Weekend AFR reminds me though that when a project starts to be taken seriously by real brokers and investors, its then very hard to BS about ore reserves, feasibility studies and finance. I'm not sure when CMR will get to that point ?! :)

Packersoldkidney
04-04-2005, 12:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

Its wonderful to see this interest in CMR Browns Project aka "and wow there is some Uranium there too" has spawned yet another new member, Breaker. The Australian Government spent so much remediating the last one a few hundred metres away.

I do believe I know a lot of facts on this one. Research from fledgling brokers often avoids the inclusion of the most basic of facts, often omits the blindingly obvious and often de-emphasizes what is truly important in assesing value or predicting deliverability of a new mining project.

Engineering can be expressed by us in so many different ways from spacedreamer to space-cadet ! Pity some of the little brokers who have been playing with this one dont understand the facts or possibly they do! Josh tends to deal with the bigger brokers and has built things - that does not mean anything will be built at Browns - yet. As for RDM, read what has been published in recent weeks and if you still have questions then ask the Company - indeed ask two people in the Company to ensure that you get the same answer. If you dont, then challenge it. Oh also ask them if they are going to split their stock, to allow the big robust (dont you worry about a feasibility - it really is a reserve - believe us - and were sure its much bigger and... and.. ) low resource supported oxide project to fly alone. We feel happy having sold our holding during the last few weeks as we further tested the spruiking versus factual issues. As I have always said - this is a good spruik ! Some of our friends here in Melbourne have not been so fortunate in receiving equity for work that they wrote off. But 10 to 20 cent entry prices fortunately have allowed some wealth creation for some of us. My advice is to leave some for the next person on this one. As for my having said there were problems, I would be pleased to help reconcile anything that the Huntley Newspaper has published that is contradictory. Surely you dont think that is Research.


!!:D

That's very funny, Simon.

skiddy
07-04-2005, 01:35 AM
See Intersuisse report out today simular valuation to Huntleys. I hold and happy to see estimated EPS for 2006 of 45.6c on P/E of 1.7. Lets see if it all comes together,i guess im a believer :-))

SimonSays
07-04-2005, 09:46 AM
The only way CMR could achieve any EPS in 2006 is by selling assets and they haven't got any. Except of course AUD 15 billion in the ground - LOL. There are now a few space-dreaming brokers out there. Again, a very good cyclical spruikathon - history shows CMR have had 2 big spruik cycles before by regurgitating old stories. Browns is a world class metallurgical dilemma and I read that one broker who now says nice things said "Browns is boring", last year. Certainly 2-3 years of oxide RESOURCE could'nt have got him excited. I wonder what did ? :). Again be very careful to pick the top because there is a long cord at the other end and it aint made of elastic ! The only thing to watch is when Inky at ALK gets off the rails and decides to race. That may provide some cash other than what we give them and our mums and dads. ;)

David Hardman
07-04-2005, 01:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by rupert

Current Price 73c.
Support building today between 70-73 cents.
Cant see the share price dropping below 70 cents in this cycle. CMR Ready to move upwards again I feel.



Shhhh. I sold at 56 a few weeks back!

SimonSays
07-04-2005, 03:36 PM
Ah Rupert, I have never said it wasnt a good spruik ! It did in fact get to $2 on a spruik way back I think and I do wish you guys well. It may very well go further with the current trends. Macro issues will probably impact price before anything to do with Browns. Some of your points are very likely. IMHO though, Engineers who have reviewed the Browns Project in any or all of the previous forms, including the oxide circuit, will not give you the confidence to base your price prediction analysis on EPS. I think your only potential error of judgement commences in line 10 and I think you have left out the most obvious one on the CEO's wish list.

breaker1
07-04-2005, 09:33 PM
Simon, It sounds like your saying you won't be surprised if it hits $2..."but it shouldn't".."but it possibly could"

skiddy
07-04-2005, 10:21 PM
Good post rupert and i do believe Simon is taking an each way bet. that great to have him on board :-)) Do enjoy this site anyone here tried ShareScene in OZ ?

SimonSays
07-04-2005, 11:37 PM
Well Breaker, if Poseidon went to $ 270, don't restrain yourself to a $ 2 scenario - maybe CMR could BS their way to say $ 50. At least the rail siding at Poseidon was used for something productive - eventually.

I think there is more chance of a nuclear fusion solution than an oxide project at Browns spiting out EPS in 2006 a la Intersuisse. Great name - sadly about as Swiss as meat pies and tomato sauce.

Halebop
07-04-2005, 11:46 PM
Here's the recipe for Pastelli, a Swiss meat pie variant:

http://www.about.ch/culture/food/pastetli.html

SimonSays
08-04-2005, 12:07 AM
At least the Pie's got Swiss parentage ! Looks like the stuff served up at the Glencore canteen.

SimonSays
08-04-2005, 09:25 AM
My point is that you might not be able to recognize the Fat Kid given the relativity of all things.

SimonSays
08-04-2005, 10:53 AM
Now Rupert, I read Cardinal and E-Bay frequently to see what my cricket/crucket cards are worth. You are right about the limited release cards though - clearly CMR is a lesson in dilution avoidance and rebalancing, tight control and small market cap even if I produce metal on my suburban block before they do. There are a few other secrets in the shareholding structure as well.

breaker1
09-04-2005, 07:10 PM
"There are a few other secrets in the shareholding structure as well."

That's a sinister like allusion Simon. Care to expand ?

Volcano
10-04-2005, 01:03 AM
Simon every time you post a negative comment, the share price keeps rising, can you please make up some more negative comments ?

I'm confused, did you used to work for CMR? Or did you own it previously and lose money?

Mick100
10-04-2005, 11:10 AM
"I'm confused, did you used to work for CMR? Or did you own it previously and lose money?"

===========================

I think this is the biggest mystery of all

What's motivating Simon?

,

SimonSays
10-04-2005, 06:21 PM
Simple question Mick - simple answer = seeking to provide credible help to others because the people at Huntley's, Martin Place etc havent got a clue when it comes to interpretation of geological/geotechnical/metallurgical/indigenous issues/ permitting etc facts and this CMR example is one of the worst I have seen for creative BS and one of the best I have seen for ramping off the proliferation of creative BS.

I was really hoping that somebody with engineering, metallurgical and project management knowledge might join a healthy debate. I view it from a project management and engineering point of view. When earnings are predicted in 2006, in all seriousness, even if they bypass a feasibility, there are many risks and time consuming issues that need to be dealt with in any size of project. Its not like they are a large company with abundant HR but rather a very small company.

As I have said on the thread re Independence Group - there is substance and an open style of Management/Board in the delivery of the story and production objectives. For me that is more credible. Its great to be involved in a spruik from time to time, but of course timing is everything !

We seem to have spawned yet another Junior Member to this thread. I dont want anything I say to cause him or her to "erupt" as I sense there must be a strong vested interest, however I do want to confirm that previously I did not hold a controlling interest in Conzinc Rio Tinto as it was known at the time ! :)

As for secrets Breaker1 of two posts, I quote an engineering friend in NT who once said of CMR significant shareholders - "they hunt in packs". ;)

Mick100
10-04-2005, 06:34 PM
Thanks for your responce Simon

I'v sold 25% of my holding and recouped almost half my origonal investment in this co.

Still hoping that there's more substance to this co. other than it being one big spruik.
Watching and waiting.

Mick

Volcano
10-04-2005, 11:55 PM
Every mining operation has complications. But they can be worked through.

If mining was simple, anyone could do it.

Their first project will pay for their even larger 2nd project. And it seems likely they could even spin of a U project as well, drilling results will be interesting.

And Simon, why are you spending all your time here saying that there newsletters have no clue about a stock? Are you trying to accumulate? shhhhhhh


We still don't know which stock we should buy instead of CMR. I can't see an upstart with as much potential.

RIO still has connections with the CMR project, and essentially they have also announced that they will be given more time for their payment. Maybe this is to give other parties lurking around a bit of a territorial push, like the ones lurking around olympic dam?

Volcano
10-04-2005, 11:58 PM
PS - did you miss CSM?

;)

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 10:40 AM
Yes Rio has some interest but it depends on which annual report you read and which calculation you care to focus on. If you go back for instance to the previous annual report of course you wont find it at all. LOL. It is 2.5% Ad Valorem (gross sales royalty) or 7.5% NPI and most of those type of agreements accrue interest.

With an name like Volcanoman I would have hoped that you knew something about hydrothermal, epithermal or mesothermal geology - but alas it does not appear so.

People have been working through Browns for decades without success.
After you read my earlier comments regarding both oxide and sulphide projects, feel free to ask challenging questions.

Oh yes and it is so easy to spin off U3O8 projects - just remember that at the nearby Whites Pit remediation continues because of problems. It is very very close to the Browns East segment which is Aboriginal owned.

Volcano
11-04-2005, 01:11 PM
I think Simon, whatever you knew about CMR in the 1990s its now out of date.

My only concern with this project are the 3 large earthquakes in Indonesia, hopefully we won't have Lake Toba coming back to life again, that 2000 year re-eruption could be due again. Otherwise, I think CMR is all systems go.


I know my geology well, check out the map of the Batchelor region in the report.

CMR will be at the perth mining conference, and so will the Northern territory mining minister.

Would be quite funny, if RIO ended up taking a stake in CMR just like it did with OXR ;)

We can only watch and wait...but time might be running out for buyers under 80c?

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 01:38 PM
1990's - what happened in the 1990's ? The management from the 1980's is still there and nothing has ever been developed or constructed by CMR in the last 18 years since the initial vended-in equity creation. A few of the directors have been more famous for bouts of Administration in recent years of course leaving shareholders with nothing.

It's nice to know that you draw maps - do you draw them for Bazza or Ian ? Let me continue to help you ensure there are sufficient heads in the trough, but dont blame me if you dont recognise the "fat boy" or Mother Hubbard when they show up.

Gofish.
11-04-2005, 02:16 PM
RIO with a stake in OXR - I don't think so !
OXR bought 80% of Sepon in Laos off RIO, then exercised their right to buy the other 20%, which of course cost a damn sight more.

Volcano
11-04-2005, 02:40 PM
RIO had the stake in OXR.

Essentially, CMR had the go ahead just a few years ago, but their partner went into chap 11 overseas, which caused the project not to go ahead.

If you are current in mining, techniques have improved over the years, and the browns project was not needed back the 90s, since the metal situation was different in the 1990s. We now have a very hungry China and India. In terms of both metals and also uranium, China is about to open about 20 new nuclear plants.

CMR even has silver credits to help it.

By the way, watch out when 84c is broken.. ;)


By the way, you still havn't told us what magical company with zero problems we should follow? [:p]

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 02:50 PM
Sadly Gofish, I think Volcanoman is erupting again with statements that are simply not true. Neither of CMR partners of a few years ago have ever been in Chapter 11. Secondly the Project did not go ahead because of simple cost economics together with other major hurdles, some of which I mentioned earlier.
As to recommendations Volcanoman, if you search you will find that I have made recommendation elsewhere. Such recommendations have substance and I dont think we need to post those here for comparative purposes.

Volcano
11-04-2005, 03:09 PM
Yes, because you know you wrong, you start making up stories.

Read this part of the announcment in 2003, and check out what happened to Doe Run...

"

Last year Compass' Board agreed to proceed with the Browns definitive
feasibility study (DFS) subject to external funding being obtained
for that study. In June 2002 agreement was reached with The Doe Run
Company (Doe Run) subject to a number of conditions, to provide the
substantive proportionof the DFS funding. Funding conditions
involving Doe Run's financial restructure in September 2002 were not
however satisfied, and consequently the Browns DFS was suspended. The
Board recognised the contributions made by the Browns Project team
but in view of the suspension of DFS activities determined to disband
the Project team and terminate the associated staff and executives.

It is important to recognise that the suspension of the Browns DFS
was not related to technicalconcerns over the project's flowsheet.
However both Compass and Doe Run consider that changes to the fast
track feasibility study previously adopted are prudent. Although
discussions on Browns are continuing,significant progress with Doe
Run is unlikely until their strategic reviews are completed. They
remain the Company's preferred Browns development partner.
"

Volcano
11-04-2005, 03:16 PM
Some of the problems Doe Run had had...

http://www.injuryboard.com/view.cfm/Topic=566

http://missouri.sierraclub.org/PressReleases/doeRun.htm

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=585&ncid=585&e=7&u=/nm/20050330/sc_nm/minerals_peru_doerun_dc

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 03:33 PM
The three posts made by Volcanoman are all about environmental claims and issues relating to the Peruvian and Missouri assets of a company called The Doe Run Company. Further research for those who actually read fact will conclude that such company/corporation has never been in Chapter 11 during the time frame indicated. Secondly the other partner of a few years ago being Ausmelt , similarly has not been in bankruptcy, receivership or administration. Maybe you should ask the Managing Director of Ausmelt, Paul Abbott what the capital cost estimate on CMR's sulphide project came to.

Volcanoman, fortunately some people can read. If they read more and factually so they would debate the real issues relating to the potential oxide and sulphide projects of CMR, issues of native title, plant design assumptions, royalties, cross-shareholding etc etc etc.

Packersoldkidney
11-04-2005, 04:00 PM
Oh, man, this thread just keeps on getting better and better....

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 04:11 PM
Doesn't it ever, and now 90c. Packers, when people start to quote from the CMR Annual Report you know that they can't find substance anywhere else. What great spin doctors ! Now we all need to keep our eyes out for the "Fat Boy". The question is, will the next statement be about a Uranium - probably a retro-move back to Dysons, or will it be the - we are going to split this highly lucrative world class oxide Project into a seperate company. A certain Sydney broker was spreading rumours about that intention a few years back. Then after that all happens, I think you can expect the arrival of the "Fat Boy". Most things that come around go around at CMR.

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 04:12 PM
Sorry for the time warp there Packers - got it on the screen, which one was yours ? LOL :)

Packersoldkidney
11-04-2005, 04:27 PM
I'm out of this a long while back: obviously missed out on extra profits, but have to admit I agree with a lot of the points Simon has raised. I reckon the current spike is a pump and dump, and the problem with that is you don't know when the music will stop; though it looks like there will be a placement at some stage, then a lot of selling by 'interested parties/sophisticated investors' on the way down.

For holders, I hope it works out for you, and I hope I'm proven wrong in my opinion of this company.

Interesting to compare companies with 'world class' deposits. The ones that are truly 'world class' attract quality big names to the share register very quickly, simply because its the big boys who have the money and expertise to work out if the resource is any chop and if it works economically.

Unfortunately there are way too many questions over the Browns prospect for me: if the questions can't be answered by the likes of Rio Tinto, then I doubt very much they'll be answered by Huntleys or Compass Resources.

Again, good luck to holders, hope I'm proven wrong.

By the way, the to and fro on this thread is very entertaining. Keep it up!

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 04:42 PM
Sorry for the delay Rupert - the major issue with the Sulphide Project is plant metallurgical design to deal with the Co/Pb/Cu/Ni/Zn etc and also the great variation in the ore body(ies). Doe Run, with Grupo Mexico are the biggest lead players in the world and they didnt have any great ideas. Engitec came in for a while with some lead stripping technology used by BHP elsewhere but in simpler ore mixes and nothing seemed to happen there. Ausmelt also had a go with its tech.

With the Oxide Project Co and Cu revenues are sought in about equal value proportions based on current prices. First, it is hard to produce cobalt at 99.8% and at lesser grades there is a substantial discount in price offered. In the potential Co recoveries it is also hard to avoid Co reporting to (forming in) the copper concentrate. Impurities need to be dealt with in producing LME grade copper. It is reasonable to assume that this metallurgical issue will be reviewed as a substantial completion risk by those providing equity support or debt providers. The other risks as I see them ranked are 1. Environmental which we havent discussed in detailed but learned a lot working in the Territory on 2. Resource/Reserve adequacy and feed (as discussed before) 3. Finance - Because you cant bank on the probability of the delivery of the revenue stream, the oxide project would require masses of equity. I remember CMR a while back said they didnt want to develop projects but rather focus on exploration. I guess that's why I suspect they'll flog it off into a seperate company.

Volcano
11-04-2005, 06:52 PM
CMR 92c today, keep talking it down Simonsays, obviously the market understands the stock more then you do hahahhah

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 07:56 PM
Yes, isnt it a great spruik Volcanoman. [8D] As you should know well and of course, as a generalisation, the quality of research from small broking firms is often based upon an inability to afford competent or experienced employees. That of course can be a good thing in situations like this. :)

Gofish.
11-04-2005, 07:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by volcanoman

RIO had the stake in OXR.


Sorry to be a bit OT guys, but when I see what I think is an error in fact regarding OXR I then start to question other assertions.
Volcanoman, correct me if I am wrong, but this is an extract from OXRs website:
" The Company was originally incorporated as Golden Plateau and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in 1932. ...
...In 1995, the Company was revitalised under the new leadership of Owen Hegarty, a former senior executive with RioTinto, and in 1996 became known as Oxiana Resources N.L.

In 2000, after several years as an international explorer, Oxiana acquired 80% of the Sepon project in Laos from Rio Tinto. Sepon was developed into a producing gold mine by late 2002 and was the "company-maker" for Oxiana....
...........
In early 2004, Oxiana agreed to buy the remaining 20% of the Sepon Project from Rio Tinto."

When I look at the meteoric rise of CMR compared to OXR, and note OXR's current SP stagnation when it recently started producing copper, and has been producing gold for some time, (ie real cashflow) I can only shake my head and wonder when the fat boy will sing for CMR.

SimonSays
11-04-2005, 10:02 PM
Agreed and there is more than One Fat Boy.:Dand Fat Boys have been trading between themselves. :) Some of the numbers of Fat Boys' diluted holdings do not add up to those reported in recent times. Hmmmm...Oh no, maybe Fat Boys and Fat Boys' wives and relations are already substantial sellers.[:0]

Volcano
11-04-2005, 11:14 PM
Simon says. CMR just reached 50million market cap. Do you exepect large broker houses to be covering such a stock.

Several brokers have covered this stock, and recent reports from Huntleys, Intersuisse have estimated that CMR is worth $3 not including any additional uranium prospects. Were you expecting the JBweres, goldman sachs to be covering stocks under $50million market cap?

At least they have the guts to cover the stock.

I don't think necessarily there will be a capital raising, I think the price movement is in response to the NT government giving it the go ahead and CMR pushing forward with the project. I think a C-Note could cover the first project, thence not having to dilute the stock that much.

In terms of OXR, it is not producing that much cash flow yet, it is heavily valued, over $1billion market cap and not producing that much gold yet. CMR is $50million market cap approx and has a large resource.

More figures from the drilling program could be released as well.

What I meant was OXR had a stake in it from RIO initially, and OXR did buy it out. But who knows what will happen with CMR. RIO may regret selling this project as it probably does with OXR...

Anyway, likely to test $1, other whole numbers could maybe be not far away.

What is wrong with acid leach techniques for application to the sulphides?

Volcano
11-04-2005, 11:47 PM
New top 20 shareholding for JP Morgan / Chase, did anyone see the annual report..

hmmm the plot thickens ;)

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 08:57 AM
Geoff, I think you need to excercise a little good humour to hang out here. Volcanoman did say, "I know my geology well, check out the map of the Batchelor region in the report." I made my own assumptions from that. There is one big fault line running through that map and, from what I have read here and based upon my local knowledge, I contest that Volcanoman knows very much at all about the Rum Jungle side of that Map. If he produced the map then possibly he does work for Ian or Bazza and would thus have some vested interest in these matters. I say "contest" because I believe very few here have attempted to address the facts. Rupert, POK and others here I believe have a very good understanding of the fundemental human behavour of spruiking and I view that as healthy as a response to the behavour of many directors in junior mining companies in these good times. As they point out in times like these the facts are not important - the perception is. I am not here to ramp or deflate any stock at the moment and I have not been burned by any bad CMR experiences - you will see my comments on other stocks elsewhere. Possibly I do think though that standards should be a little higher on both the Broking side and in the Boardroom and I encourage everyone to read very carefully and ask questions particularly now given both the euphoria on the ladder and the potential to lose one's shirt on the snake.

Back to the oxide project for a moment , the real issue there is being organised to proceed. The NT Government has not approved a specific plant to proceed on that site and the Aboriginals who own some of the land there will have a few things to say as well and that may take some time after the dialogue starts. This is a very sensitive area from an environmental point of view and when I was in the Territory a few years back I saw negotiations seemingly taking ages to consummate. Polis like company directors can be ultra-positive of course but often the bureacrats are not. Being organised also means to ensure a resource becomes an adequate reserve - at the moment, correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like 2-3 years of oxide resource is only available from Browns with top up from different ore at a different location for a project that has a limited life. Without wishing to banter on - I cannot see how anyone could assume that the oxide project could be in production in anything like the timeline assumed. There are of course other issues previously discussed like proceeding on the assumption of no BFS and an assumption of creative finance. For those who hold stocks like these in their pension funds I believe you should ask your Directors to explain things in more detail. By your effots you may one day create some real productivity.

Volcano
12-04-2005, 09:17 AM
In other energy news, fresh on the heels of an announcement from China that
the nation will build 40 nuclear power plants over the next 15 years,
Pakistan said Friday that it plans to add 8,800 MW of atomic power
generation capacity by 2030. The announcement came as ground was broken for
the nation's 300 MW Chashma Nuclear Power Plant. "Pakistan has now more
dependable workforce and friends and our nuclear power program is poised for
expansion in order to meet the higher needs of accelerated economic
development of the country," an official told the Pakistan Times.


PS i have never ever worked for any company involved in CMR. I just like the potential of CMR...

PSSS Simon you havn't enlightened us on which magical stock of zero obstacles we should buy?

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 09:37 AM
There is no Utopia. There will always be obstacles, but at CMR there is NOTHING NEW (YET)and very little substance in my view. If there is something NEW that is causing the price to rise then I suggest we should have been told about it. For other recommendations read elsewhere - Independence Group etc.

Volcano
12-04-2005, 01:14 PM
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Sounding like a broken record Simonsays, maybe you should try shorting it once it gets into the ASX 300 lol

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 01:36 PM
I repeat what I have said many times before - this is a very good spruik. Why should you be so concerned that I am trying to draw out the audience to debate where the substance is ? I actually think your comments about Uranium are very relevant and I am still waiting for the statement. Possibly it will come with a management or board succesion announcement. :)

Volcano
12-04-2005, 03:06 PM
Will be interesting to see who they put in as the next chairman...

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 03:13 PM
Beware Volcanoman - I want the Job.:D

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 07:44 PM
The only REAL form of capital raising that will be announced in the future is of the type that dilutes your shareholding. :) That may or may not be some way off [?]

There may be of course a highly conditional super-positive statement however that suggests that creative financing is in the bag. As you have previously pointed out, the market will of course react to the hype and not the reality. [:p] Good luck, I sense it may continue to go if their selection of words to describe their ongoing drilling program for Uranium is well written and delivered.

Volcanoman has given some incite as to what is in the mind the CMR. ;)In recent weeks the equity sales and marketing game in North America has become very focused on U3O8, particularly based on future demand for China's proposed nuclear power plants. There are strategic reasons why they would also want to move the emphasis away from the little oxide project I would have thought.

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 09:07 PM
Geoff - read my comments again re U3O8 over the CMR thread - At one end of Browns there is the old "Dysons" and I know Josh was interested in some other targets way back. It seems Josh has grown closer to CMR leadership and his connections may be part of the management succession plan. I have been working on 2 U3O8 deals related to TSX listing and in N.M. USA in recent times and I know that it is the "dot-commish" subject there right now and will be in a few weeks here. My concern remains that CMR does not have strong underlying support beyond short term players but does have the great benefit of few shares outside the Club. Also read comments on HER thread - have had some experience of ammonium leach and acid pressure leach delivery of Ni and Co. Will post more on HER in due course. Theyre doing well given inferred, complex, and beneficiation critical. With all these projects many will be hyped and few will be built.

SimonSays
12-04-2005, 10:20 PM
Sorry about the code - on that subject take a look there below. As you know at the big end of the Ni market, few projects get built and juniors traditional get diluted to crap, but there is of course as you point out, money to be made in the process leading to such eventualities. I never declare what I hold. Sometimes I prefer our Friend's Darkside philosophy.

I think you have heard of Dalrymple and other examples of Josh's sucesss before and on CMR he has not come to the forefront for some time other than to land in RDM as a director leading to the deep drilling under Browns for a Cu shot at a mag anomaly.

Yes I thought that CMR would say more about U3O8 in preparation for spinning Browns and the surrounding U3O8 province into a demerger. I sense they get nervous every time they see a project coming on ! My contacts confirm that is why the last CEO did not last very long. Of course the ability to raise equity in these times is preferable to talking with boring over-expectant bankers who always require bankable feasibility studies. For Juniors, small projects to produce cash flow are also more fashionable than wrestling with Majors to retain wealth.

Packersoldkidney
12-04-2005, 11:33 PM
Yes: and I think when every two nickel (!!) project is getting off the ground, that is a good a indicator as any that trouble lies not too far down the track for the market. It's always easy to miss the Devil in the Detail when base metal prices are so high. The plausability factor seems to be increased and have a direct correlation to shrinking metal inventories: so easy to forget that the value 'in ground' has little to do with the value to the long-term shareholders or indeed the company over the long term, unless the value in ground translates to actual sales for the company.

Of course, high metal prices and gangbusting demand means that alternatives to shrinking metal stocks have to be found. Nickel laterites seem now to be acceptable to the big mining houses: somehow the problems that sank Forrest's Anaconda and Gutnick's Centaur have now been overcome - at least that is what BHP and Inco are saying.

The difference for Compass is that they haven't proved that they can actually get that value out of Browns that we all know is there. If Simon is right, I can fully understand why those in charge of the company are suffering apoplexy at having to actually - Oh God no! - start mining and processing some of this ore. This is something where smoke and mirrors will not avail Compass. It is also clear that a recommendation from Huntley's is not good enough to get a loan from the bank.

There may come a time when science improves enough for Browns to become viable. I am not convinced that we are at that stage yet, and am also quite sure that there are people involved in Compass who probably know this as well.

For holders I hope the share price goes up and up while the house of cards stays intact. Just remember that it only takes one card.....
Also remember that there are a slew of projects that have 'technical issues' and are shelved for these reasons. I think Bemax might suffer the same fate unfortunately.

Mick100
13-04-2005, 01:01 AM
I'v got a few miners in my portfolio going into production this year. All were very speccy when i bought them in 2003.

You have got to play it by ear with these companies. Watch closely to see if the managment do what they say they are going to do and when they are going to do it. We will know in a fairly short time, 2-3 months I think, wheather CMR is a goer or not.

.

SimonSays
13-04-2005, 08:02 AM
I can sense there are some changes at CMR from the days 3 or 4 Doctors of Philosophy ran the business. The Chairman's announcement yesterday was interesting as he is also CEO. The only time he was not was when he and his Board seemed to bring in a new CEO to proceed with the big Project or an Engitec version of that Project. Then of course all of a sudden there was no CEO and no project. If you look at the notes to the accounts Elvish as the internal metallurgist is elevated to Board level after hanging around there for many years, but look carefully at what he gets paid as a key person in this no bankable feasibility preparation stage for the oxide project - he does not get paid very much really by industry standards. If Josh and Neil T from Dalrymple pay more interest in CMR I sense the future could be more interesting but more for U3O8 in the short to medium term.

SimonSays
14-04-2005, 11:57 AM
Ive been lobbying with a local CFD trader to allow CMR to be traded in CFD's. This will give you all the opportunity for at least 20:1 leverage. :)

Volcano
14-04-2005, 07:31 PM
Wonder when CMR will get on margin ;)

Mick100
15-04-2005, 01:10 AM
Not the usual stuff to be found on gold eagle but this chap makes some good points - worth a read, IMO

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rakhimov041305.html

,

SimonSays
15-04-2005, 12:48 PM
Gear it Now. LOL [:p]

SimonSays
18-04-2005, 10:29 PM
What was ?

SimonSays
19-04-2005, 08:54 AM
I hope for your sake that the Spruiking prevails predicated on commodity prices, but in all the years I have tracked this one, there is nothing new, the oxide project is insubstantial and flawed, the sulphide project is a metallurgical dilemma that could take decades to extract value from and anyone can talk vaguely about uranium resources and not reserves inferred or otherwise. I know Punters Weekly and a little broker in Sydney that has had a few name changes in recent years have been ramping with some of their mates in the UK, but so what ? Where's the substance. Lastly if they expect to get value from the ALK royalty to underpin any value in CMR at all then ALK has got to be a great buy.;)

Volcano
19-04-2005, 09:12 AM
I think the lowest it could go it 65c to close the gap, but it might have come close enough yesterday...

AGM soon

breaker1
21-04-2005, 05:30 PM
Simon

Spoke with RDM management, RDM have no ties with CMR at all in either JV committments or on going rights to ground.

Having said that I quit CMR today and turned into LAF, current price makes it good buying IMO.

Will continue to monitor CMR price and this board though as insights expressed here make for compelling reading.

Mick100
21-04-2005, 05:57 PM
Good move breaker

,

SimonSays
21-04-2005, 06:10 PM
Yes Breaker, as I said in para 3 of the 6th last post on page 6, there had been an announcement and I suggested you ask for the real story.

At least Rob would know! You often get different answers from different people on that one. The question was would RDM walk if they did not find something. Of course there was a strata entitlement at some stage given during which period of time the sulphide project was assumed to be moving down the track toward development as well. It would have been intereting if PD / RDM struck big copper at depth under Browns. I dont think there would have been much talk of a sulphide project ever again.

I would have thought there was more sruiking potential on this Mother Hubbard style of stock - your exit is disappointing.

breaker1
21-04-2005, 08:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

I would have thought there was more sruiking potential on this Mother Hubbard style of stock - your exit is disappointing.


Geez Simon...sorry to disappoint you...been called a few things in life but never a spruiker.

Give honest opinions, ask lots of questions, compare your own research with whats available then cross your fingers. As far as promising specs go ATM have a position in RDM and increased existing position in LAF today, also holding NWE and GBG (though rights issue announcement has knocked the stuffing out of SP)

good luck

SimonSays
04-05-2005, 06:06 PM
Just got back from O.S and saw some of the interesting selling trends. Looks like some of the seasoned spruikers have got out alive to fight another day. Must be time for some of you to contemplate re-entry. The uranium based sub-spruik seems to be a bit subdued even after George W's great revelation that it is such a clean energy source!

SimonSays
04-05-2005, 07:46 PM
Quoting - " still hope that something comes out of it for people, if we get a good up trend, or some real action I would look at going again."

In a neutral or general uptrend of course one can make money from these type of stocks - there arent many shares out there in CMR. Their Board has certainly been diligent in that regard when you see so many penny dreadfuls with half a billion shares out there. Funnily I know another of those which should come back shortly - a big nickel play in the Phillipines. LOL.

With CMR though, the typical signs are that, if you have anything that resembles a world class project or even an achieveable project, you dont have to spruik it through little brokers like they have and you dont have to depend on research from Huntleys. The equity sales and marekting research will always flow from those generally interested in a project.

The only time anything will be produced at Browns is probably about three years after someone figures out some new technology that can split the ore economically into relevant and saleable component parts.

Its certainly worth drilling for uranium in the immediate area, given the tendency in recent months to appeal to the supply side for China's needs and the positive comments by politicians about "clean energy".

Moonshine
24-05-2005, 03:01 PM
Anyone else notice the fall from grace recently for CMR?

Currently trading at a 2 month low.

Lack of news affecting the enthusiasm of speculative investors perhaps?

Anyone getting back in at these levels?

SimonSays
24-05-2005, 04:18 PM
It is all a bit flaccid , isnt it ? [:0] I guess everyone is waiting to see whether Old Mother Hubbard can concoct a story about creative finance or suck anyone into believing they will be producing anything by this time next year. Dont you worry about native title or permiting, or even engineering . They do have a few imagery benefits left like, there is really lots of uranium there and you really dont need reserves when you have resources ! Maybe the new Chairman should ask his old boss for some other ideas or get some advice from the Chairman's other Board at FMG. :) Otherwise suggest you all consult with a chartist.

Moonshine
04-08-2005, 06:04 PM
Thought i would draw everyone's attention back to this stock... the one which drew soooo much criticism.

Closed at an all time high today... $1.20

Again... to all those who weathered the storm, you have been justifiably rewarded.

Moonshine

Moonshine
05-08-2005, 01:47 PM
Absolutley steaming ahead now...

Up 18c to $1.38 so far.

Moonshine
08-08-2005, 12:18 PM
And again... up 25c to $1.60 now.

This stock has a lot of fans on HC.

Simonsays... any opinions on the current valuation on this stock?

Cheers,

Moonshine

tapman
08-08-2005, 12:30 PM
Moonshine, How do I get on the HC site. Cheers

Moonshine
08-08-2005, 12:35 PM
Hi tapman,

You need to register at http://www.hotcopper.com.au

Lots of info on offer there.

Cheers,

Moonshine

tapman
08-08-2005, 12:45 PM
Thanks for that. :)

nelehdine
08-08-2005, 07:25 PM
Another awesome day 4 Compass, I piled in on Friday at 132.5 and added more today at 158 ... IMHO I think this is going to become a major Aussie mining company over the next few years ... $2,$3,$4,$5 will be milestones that pass by with wonderfully monotonous ease !!!

SimonSays
08-08-2005, 07:43 PM
Some time ago when the stock was around 12-15 cents their Leader was focusing on the valuation of their royalty in Alkane's Lachlan Fold resources/reserves to underpin the value of CMR. Since then there have been no new discoveries. There has been a "there is Uranium here in Rum Jungle" statement ( oh really !) and another about an innovative financing of a very small oxide project due two months back. Other than some investment from the UK and a few new consultants, I dont know what's new. Obviously all that good work by previous engineeering consultants has been shredded. Ah but maybe they have found Lasseters Reef . If there is anything new then shareholders will be the last to know. LOL

nelehdine
08-08-2005, 08:36 PM
SS ... is that a bitter comment from an ex-holder who sold out far,far to early ?? Read HC , CMR are about to start making some serious dosh, even a couple of brokers valued them at $3 ... b4 Uranium became a hot topic !!

SimonSays
09-08-2005, 08:15 PM
Not sure about that Rupert. When the people selling the "hot air" are professional, anything is possible. Really there is no point in any of us wondering about projects, reserves or resources, because they havent told us anything yet. It's all the SOS. Where has that small oxide project gone ?

Volcano
17-08-2005, 10:18 AM
Hi tossers,

Still think CMR is going to go down rofl.....

Keep bagging it, you might be able to get some under $2 ehhehehheh

SimonSays
18-08-2005, 02:29 PM
Not bagging it - just know that they will probably never produce an ounce of metal. Could go to $5, because as you have pointed out before there is no need for stocks of this type to have any substance whatsoever. If you believe there is substance why dont you tell us what is new in the last 5 years - same core group, same complex difficult to seperate polymetallurgical resources/reserves, a few new holes from time to time, but lots of yak, spin and hypotheticals. LOL

Volcano
18-08-2005, 07:09 PM
Can you read their minds? How do you know?

Moonshine
18-08-2005, 07:27 PM
Hi SimonSays,

I have alerted HC posters to your arguments on ST dated from the 16/03/2005.

There is currently an invitation for you to start posting on Hot Copper - www.hotcopper.com.au

I feel there are quite a few posters eager to test your opinion if you can be bothered... I am certainly interested in hearing some of your points V theirs.

Moonshine

SimonSays
18-08-2005, 09:48 PM
Good point Mick - I have never said CMR would not be successful in ramping their share price. I am actually pointing out that from a detailed assessment I do not believe CMR has anything really that can be valued to derive the prices now on the Board. I encourage active debate about what is real and what is not, because sadly many people post on Forums in relation to what they would wish their own investment in that stock to do in the short term. As for Hotcopper why not bring them here as, on average, I think more intelligent comment may be found in this place.

breaker1
19-08-2005, 09:53 AM
Good to see you edited your post, Moonshine, from someone has alerted HC forum to you have alerted HC forum. Mistermoon and Moonshine are somewhat similar but, hey, whatever floats your boat.

Seems to be a couple of posts missing, censored?, from when I looked in here last night to rechecking today.

I've also wondered why Simon doesn't post on HC but then I've thought, why should he?, he has an opinion he expresses it here and for the better part of it, it is articulate, well presented and constructive. Where he chooses to post is his business.

I'd hazzard a guess most of CMR HC forum members have "lurked" on opinions presented in here and vice versa. Conversely Olympians posts on HC, whilst a "tad" more flambouyant than Simons, are equally as interesting.

Simon might be lagging at the moment in his endeavours to make his views of caution known (or acted upon) widely, the SP demonstrates that, but that doesn't mean he has to be pushed,shoved or bullied into appeasing others "elsewhere"

Moonshine
19-08-2005, 01:07 PM
Hi breaker1,

I agree with all you say.

It is Simon's perogative to post where he wants, and other's who are keen on researching their stock's perogative, to seek out an informed opinion that may shed some previously unknown light onto their understanding.

I don't want to kill off others enthusiasm for a stock like CMR... but I am also very keen to see people validate their calls, and if that means Olympian proving SS wrong, or SS proving Olympian wrong, then I think there is benefit there for all CMR followers.

It is a shame that the two parties cannot come together and state their cases, because I feel that all involved would take much away from it.

As an afterthought, I am pretty sure that I attempted to join HC as Moonshine... but it was taken. What can you do...?

Cheers,

Moonshine

SimonSays
19-08-2005, 09:39 PM
Hi Moonshine and you all. I took a look at HotCu and don't think I like that place much - why dont you import some of the things you have been told there and I will do my best to comment. I remember way back in CMR history that there was a run and at the end of the day Old Mother Hubbard appeared. That goes back many years but the spruiking and market dynamics were similar.
I thought we were all expecting new director/previous consultant Elvish to make his big announcement on the small oxide plant and something about innovative finance a few months back. Has anyone heard anything ? It appears to me based on my engineering knowledge that only metal prices drive his hypothetical project - it would be very very small and would require some commitments to source ore from more than one place in the world of CMR. Dont worry about permitting, part Aboriginal land ownership or anything else of course. Let's just value the 2006 cash flows that would really come in 2008 if all went well.

I guess there are a lot of people out there predicting substantial Uranium price increases over the next few years - like Nickel though, there is a lot of Uranium out there in the World. I know CMR are seeking to get on the bandwagon because as we all know, the Australian Government has spent so much of our taxpaying money in recent years remediating White's or should I say the former Rum Jungle Uranium Project. I am sure there is Uranium in the Region. Ah, but is it fully or partly on Aboriginal Land and how long will it take to firm up future drill programmes into reserve data that represents true asset value. Assets are not vague or highly inferred resources ! Please tell me something new. I have read all the announcements and more.

Volcano
23-08-2005, 06:31 PM
The broken record keeps playing CMR keeps rising. When Simonsays says he likes CMR I might sell lol

Volcano
24-08-2005, 02:04 PM
Off she goes again 1.70 broken again today

SimonSays
25-08-2005, 09:53 AM
Oh Volcanoman - you erupting again ? Dont you know why the price is where it is ? It's not about Browns, Area 55 or any desperate ideas like building a small oxide plant or waiting for Alkane to produce a royalty stream. Its all about Rum Jungle. And that is all about Politics.

Volcano
03-10-2005, 04:13 PM
Huntleys puts a big valuation on its oxide project alone...

See the latest huntelys out

aussie joe
21-12-2005, 08:34 PM
Volcanoman,

After a fairly big retrace, this one seems to be heading back to $1.70 or maybe even to huntelys recommendation of accumulating b/n 2.80 - 3.10 range.

aussie joe

Volcano
16-01-2006, 12:02 AM
And CMR is still going up lol

Moonshine
27-03-2006, 05:40 PM
Hi SimonSays,

CMR seems to be days away from securing PER approval for the Browns Oxides project now.

Immediately following PER approval will be a move to commence mining.

Are you still standing by your claim that they will never dig an ounce of dirt?

Am fascinated by how close they are getting... but mindfull of your stance.

cheers,

Moonshine

marcer
28-03-2006, 07:37 PM
Its going to get interesting in the next few weeks, with the PER supposedly very close.

Note that the company has been very quiet regarding their uranium resources (S*#tloads according to recent drilling and old Rum Jungle records when it was an active U mine).

As long as the PER is all go, expect the company to start more publicity regarding U.

Less than 90m shares available here. With a few bits of good news this one will go north very quickly I reckon.

marcer
05-05-2006, 05:37 PM
Northern Territory govt gave the PER approval today for teh Browns Oxide project.

Final step is for the Aussie federal govt to give it the final clearance.

Also did some good capital raising with a couple of US instos a few weeks ago and Merril Lynch owns approx 6%.

Looking good for all holders.

Glad I kept a few during the peaks and troughs.

marcer
25-07-2006, 05:32 PM
The Australian Foreign Investment review board approved the Chinese ownership of 12 million shares in CMR today.

Also the Northern Territory minister Clare Martin publicly announced a change from anti new uranium mines to being pro new u mines.

Things are progressing nicely.

Any others on board?

nelehdine
26-07-2006, 08:29 PM
$3.79 ...up 19c on a pretty ordinary day for the ASX. This is a sleeping giant , worth a few spare dollars at least if you have no exposure to commodities !!

Disc: Hold 22,450 at 30c ave.

nelehdine
31-07-2006, 09:04 AM
Great to see no response to my post ... means no wishy-washy holders ... all the better for those in for the long term !!!

info
31-07-2006, 12:18 PM
Im a wishy-washy buyer you sound like you know what your talking about, i will a buy in for some at $3.50? as i have no exposure to commodities, sound good or should i buy them at market price? or lower?

Cheers,

nelehdine
31-07-2006, 02:19 PM
STock is running away now ... up another 5% on a further great announcement. I wouldn't expect to see 350 again for a while unless the whole market tanks ... in that event I'd rather be holding CMR than many others.

Packersoldkidney
31-07-2006, 02:40 PM
This is breaking my heart.

small fish
31-07-2006, 03:06 PM
Tell us the story POK, im bored

Packersoldkidney
31-07-2006, 03:11 PM
Well its a traditional sort of story that starts like this:

Once upon a time there was a kidney who bought some stock in Compass Resources on consecutive days around the 28/9 cent mark (or thereabouts, these details are a bit hazy without checking records). Sometime later he sold this stock around 90 cents (or thereabouts, these details are a bit hazy without checking records) Then he cried into his beer as he watched the stock go to $4, and he didn't live happily ever after.

The End.

PS: There is a sequel, but it involves another stock, but with much the same story line.

small fish
31-07-2006, 03:22 PM
Oooh I feel your pain.

marcer
31-07-2006, 03:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

STock is running away now ... up another 5% on a further great announcement. I wouldn't expect to see 350 again for a while unless the whole market tanks ... in that event I'd rather be holding CMR than many others.


REALLY good announcement Nelehdine!

I wouldn't be surprised if the word uranium was also mentioned in CMR negotiations with the Aussie Feds.

This could get really interesting.

POK: I did a similar thing to you, got in at 60c and out around 1.60 after it fell back from 1.90. But brought back in at 1.80 on the next leg up.

This could still be cheap even at this price.

Packersoldkidney
31-07-2006, 04:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by marcer


quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

STock is running away now ... up another 5% on a further great announcement. I wouldn't expect to see 350 again for a while unless the whole market tanks ... in that event I'd rather be holding CMR than many others.


REALLY good announcement Nelehdine!

I wouldn't be surprised if the word uranium was also mentioned in CMR negotiations with the Aussie Feds.

This could get really interesting.

POK: I did a similar thing to you, got in at 60c and out around 1.60 after it fell back from 1.90. But brought back in at 1.80 on the next leg up.

This could still be cheap even at this price.


You might be right, Marcer: the recent rise would certainly indicate as much.

nelehdine
01-08-2006, 09:53 PM
Hit $4 today, closed at $3.95 ... could see a breakout into unchartered territory over the coming weeks. Uranium drilling results will be the next big shareprice moving event. Strap yourself in !!!

info
02-08-2006, 01:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Hit $4 today, closed at $3.95 ... could see a breakout into unchartered territory over the coming weeks. Uranium drilling results will be the next big shareprice moving event. Strap yourself in !!!


Just straped in at $3.98 now lets hope it takes off and hope Im not the next cujo.

nelehdine
02-08-2006, 05:51 PM
Record close tonight at 413 ... intra-day high of 438 is the next target. She's starting to appear on a few radar screens with the media, the fun is only starting ... this one could make us all serious moolaaa ( my target is $30 by 2010 assuming U is $100/lb + )

info
15-08-2006, 05:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Record close tonight at 413 ... intra-day high of 438 is the next target. She's starting to appear on a few radar screens with the media, the fun is only starting ... this one could make us all serious moolaaa ( my target is $30 by 2010 assuming U is $100/lb + )


Down over 20% now scary stuff.

aussie joe
15-08-2006, 09:36 PM
info,

scary, I do not think great buying op....

LT - :D

Dazza
15-08-2006, 10:38 PM
SMACK DOWN
3.30

ouch.

i was so tempted to buy at $4.......

buy depth looks ugly

though i c CMR is always like this though

top 20 holds how much?

looking at the bids, maybe top 20 holds 80%?

sell side is biggish..

Volcano
30-08-2006, 10:33 AM
Hey what happened to SIMONSAYS lol

Must have been sent here to try to keep the price down, what a tosser lol

He should apologise to the forum for being so WRONG lol

nelehdine
30-09-2006, 09:45 AM
489 and now in the ASX300 ... hope your all holding, CMR can be a good share to look at only once a week. Short term gyrations can be a little scary if your watching too closely ( share dropped from 490 to 468 this week on a total of about 10,000 shares inside 20 minutes ... closed that day at 495 ... ). American hedge fund increased holding by 1.4m shares over the last few weeks. At these levels ( remember they were less than $1.50 last Christmas ) they still see fantastic long term value. Hope all holders are happy ( I'm free carried on 18,250 shares so no complaints from me !! ) and firmly strapped in for the long haul.

Taijon
13-10-2006, 07:25 PM
Nelehdine, you are not wrong when you say the share price can fluctuate a lot in a shrt time. The last 10 mins today saw the price fall from around $4.12 to $3.96 and end up closing at $4.09.

Might be time to put on an extra safety belt or a parachute!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But then again $30 by 2010 and all those free carried shares represents some great investing up until now. Well done. I like the way you disclose what you are doing/have done straight after the event.

Dazza
13-10-2006, 10:21 PM
good on u nele

im avg in at $4, and will buy anything lower than that

bring it on fellas :D

nelehdine
13-10-2006, 10:36 PM
Down 10 consecutive days ... rough couple of weeks while the ASX has been very strong. Talk of a director offloading big time hasn't helped. Fundamentals have only improved recently. I could buy another 3000 at $4 and still be free carried ... tempting !!

aussie joe
13-11-2006, 07:50 PM
Uranium drill results can not be to far away.

Buying around the $4.20 level is an absolute bargain if you ask me.

denpal
13-11-2006, 08:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by aussie joe

Uranium drill results can not be to far away.

Buying around the $4.20 level is an absolute bargain if you ask me.


We are due for a major catch-up for sure. I think part of the problem is that we are not perceived or believed by the wider market to be a major "end-game" Uranium play, JUST YET. Smart guys like Alf Field know otherwise, hence his "free play on Uranium" article on CMR at the start of this year.

At this time, CMR needs to prove to the market what further U it has, with drill results.

It's OK for the true believers like me, who are pretty sure we have a heap of U on our land, much, much more than the 14 m lb Mt Fitch entre.

DYOR

Harry7
21-11-2006, 02:24 PM
Hi All, just thought I'd share some information re CMR, I work in the industry on the mining supply side and we are quoting some equipment for the Brown's Oxide project (Rum Jungle NT location?) for Cu/Ni/Co development. Focus will be on producing Cu/copper. Ur still a while away. Its a slim budget for purchasing this equipment, and the site processing won't be anything fancy, just enough to get the Cu out, processed and back in as cash. CMR are doing it themselves ex Perth, not using an engineering house

I don't hold any CMR, but good to see this is happening

denpal
28-11-2006, 10:03 PM
Great new update report just out by Huntley's, enjoy your read and be very glad if you are a holder:


Huntleys Recommendation: Compass Resources NL ( CMR )
Recommendation: Buy
CMR is focused on development of its Browns project near Batchelor NT. Construction of the base metal oxides project is underway for first production by 1H07. At 9.4Mt and growing (A$1.9bn in-ground value), oxide resources are just over 10% of the 84Mt total (~A$18bn in-ground value). A feasibility study for a follow-up sulphide development, up to 4Mtpa, begins shortly. A preliminary study on the adjacent Mt Fitch uranium resource is underway. CMR is an opportunity to participate in realisation of considerable value at advanced projects and exploration properties. We rate this as one of the highest leverage plays to an extended resource boom. CMR has no earnings history, is subject to development risk and low liquidity. The balance sheet is strong with exploration and development well funded following the landmark Hunan deal.

Event
Last Update - 27/11/2006
The benefit of a site visit is getting a genuine feel for the assets. The message we bring back from CMR’s Batchelor base metal and uranium assets is they are real, impressive in scale and their development is underway and in good hands. Earthworks and foundation construction for Browns Oxide are well advanced and should finish prior to wet season’s onset. Most major plant items are on site and new MD Richard Swann is stamping his mark. Five of six key staff are due to arrive shortly. The sixth, a mining engineer, is proving challenging but should be recruited shortly. First metal is still expected by mid 2007, subject to NT power supply and a normal wet season.

Business Impact: We retain our Buy recommendation. Our valuation rises 20% to $6.95cps, conservatively crediting only 50% of our calculated sulphide project value. Long term assumptions remain US$1.75/lb copper, US$15/lb cobalt, US$5.00/lb nickel, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate. Using spot prices markedly increases the valuation. Such was the immediate and obvious potential of the uranium prospects on the recent trip, we increase our valuation for them from $50m to $190m. CMR says an additional uranium resource between Whites and Dysons is highly probable. We credit a doubling in uranium resources to 25Mlb, half the company’s target, and apply A$7.50/lb. CMR’s strength is likely substantial earnings from existing resources and impressive exploration upside. Full funding for oxide and sulphide projects and ~$90m in cash, after Hunan repayments, for exploration and other opportunities appeal. CMR has other attractive gold and base metals projects, including Western NSW where it is targeting the discovery of a new Cobar Basin province and an epithermal gold project in Peru with high surface gold values.
Forecast Impact: --
Recommendation Impact: Unchanged. (Last updated: 27/11/2006

Event Analysis

--
The Hunan JV has FIRB approval. The aim is to sign agreements before year end triggering Hunan’s injection of $69-72m into the 50:50 JV. That will pay all capex and repay past CMR expenditure. We forecast the oxides to initially deliver pre-tax cash flow of $48m or 37cps to CMR.

In reality the 10 year oxide project just mines the skin of one of the biggest base metal inventories in Australia. CMR cites potential to double the 84Mt resource and we think it could be more. The deposit is open along strike and at depths below 300-350m. Beneath the old Whites open cut for example is a 22m intersection of 5.8% copper that remains to be followed up. That 84Mt is worth around $18bn at today’s prices or A$215/tonne, making it one of the highest value ores for a deposit of its size. Even excluding cobalt, the ore is still impressively valued at A$165/tonne. But why exclude it when Hunan’s prime focus is to lock up cobalt for its hardened tool business? The JV contracts stipulate that Hunan will take 100% of the nickel/cobalt chemical produced while CMR will be responsible for sale of 100% of the copper

denpal
28-11-2006, 10:06 PM
The report is entitled MOVE OVER ZAMBIA. How bullish is that for goodness sake when you have monsters like EQN in the pipeline?

A further paste, from S/S:

Brilliant performance today, up 7.3% or 32c to $4.72 on an ASX red day.

As the report says we are now being credited by them with 25m lbs of Uranium, or half the companies target of 50m lbs. But there is likely to be far more than 50m lbs all told if you are familiar with the history of Rum Jungle. Huntley's increased their valuation of the Uranium resource IGV from their previous valuation by $140m to a new total of $190m, ie 25m lbs at $7.50/lb.

This is $1.14 per share additional value for the U alone, not the base metals including the Cobalt for which the spot price has gone nuts (and so has nickel).


Interesting post from HC by Apollon, which is also extremely bullish:

The broker from Baker Young who promoted CMR as a buy in Adelaide's Sunday Mail on the weekend, had this to say to one of his clients in an email....

Please find attached an updated independent research report on CMR (titled ‘Move Over Zambia’) following the company’s field trip to their Northern Territory operations last week, which xxxxxx and I were fortunate enough to be invited to.

As you may have appreciated from my ‘Sunday Mail Stock Tips’ this week, we were most impressed with management and their strategy and resolve to move forward on their vast and ever-increasing resources and become Australia’s next diversified base metals producer (arguably next-in-line behind BHP & RIO). The virtual full-funding by Chinese partner and largest shareholder Hunan Metals can only help to expedite this process. The impressive scale of their 100% owned uranium asset (the historically rich Rum Jungle) - with the appropriate amount of political favour - is highly likely to see CMR realise its goal of becoming Australia’s next uranium producer. A quota of 10 million pounds of very high grade uranium was mined by the government in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s, and no more – once the quota was filled they simply walked away despite significantly more uranium obviously being present as it was out of favour and politically unpopular. Management is also genuinely excited about the prospects of their NSW base metals project and their Peruvian gold prospect, with any success at these operations simply adding further value. CMR will become the 2nd or 3rd largest producer of Cobalt in the world when production begins next year, and they are debt-free with $90million in the bank. CMR also has 4 to 5 drill rigs operating when most emerging resource companies struggle to secure 1 drill rig in a resource boom! CMR is currently in the ASX 300 Index, and with a market capitalization of over $500million, it is now big enough to qualify for the ASX 200 Index, and we anticipate a further re-rating should this promotion eventuate in the future.

I encourage you to read both pages of the attached report in detail, and please note that the intrinsic valuation of almost $7 per share (current share price $4.40) is very conservative in a number of assumptions (as explained in the report). It is also interesting to consider that the two US institutions (2nd & 3rd largest shareholders) each invested in CMR for different reasons – one for base metals and the other for uranium – diversification is a wonderful thing…

The stock is a buy, and my general advice for shareholders is to hold for the longer term, although there is nothing wrong with realising some profit given the stock is up over 4 times. CMR also remains a good trading stock due to its volatility, but it would be ill-advised to ever sell out completely given that the risk will remain significantly to the upside. Please call should you wish to discuss, and as usual I disclose my personal interest in the stock.

Niccccceeeeee........


DYOR, holder

nelehdine
29-11-2006, 06:09 AM
A couple og guys on HC have set out a long term goal of a shareprice of $100 for CMR .... mainly based on U at $200/lb and double the current reserves being available to be mined ... and on the sulphides/oxides side current spot levels being maintained ... ( pretty conservative in my view ).

Remember with CMR only having 123.6m shares on issue and absolutely no need to raise any more capital ( $90m sitting in bank ) the shares are very tightly held. I'm just excited by the potential dividends ....

Disc: hold 18,250 CMR

marcer
04-12-2006, 08:21 PM
Moving again.

This is my bet to be the first new uranium miner in Aussie - as well as their many other resources. A wee one stop shop for all your metal needs.

denpal
04-12-2006, 09:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by marcer

Moving again.

This is my bet to be the first new uranium miner in Aussie - as well as their many other resources. A wee one stop shop for all your metal needs.


Other contenders for the next new uranium miner are AGS with Beverley 4 Mile or SXR with their SA Honeymoon ISL deposit which is all permitted and approved to proceed by the board. Also OMC is planning on mining their Lake Kariba Zambian deposit in late 2008.

nelehdine
05-12-2006, 06:55 PM
530 ... up 52c so far this week. I hope you've all still got your seatbelts firmly fastened and scrip safely locked away. The journey is only just begining and we ain't seen nothing yet !!

nelehdine
06-12-2006, 09:21 PM
559 ... now up 81c for the week ... don't even think about un-doing that seatbelt !! This one will be double figures by mid next year.

Disc: free carried on 18,500 CMR

Dazza
06-12-2006, 09:38 PM
lets hope so

im in at avg 4...

Volcano
07-12-2006, 12:34 AM
Hey what happened to that deramper "Simonsays". Is he still short on CMR ehheheheheh

$8 next target?

Volcano
12-12-2006, 09:15 AM
Simonsays, has the cat got your tongue, CMR over $5 now lol.

nelehdine
18-12-2006, 05:24 PM
$5.66 ... another good day but relatively subdued considering the rumours swirling round the U spot market of $72/lb !!. I bgt another 4,135 shares today ... my average in cost on my 22,385 now a comforting 13c !! ( having come from negative net cost ).... this one will be a star in 2007 ... I would have thought somewhere between $10 and $20 by this time next year ... wide spread I know but who know where U will be ... $120/lb ???

steve fleming
11-05-2007, 10:56 PM
Latest Huntley's CMR update today.

CMR market cap = $625 million.

Accordingly to Huntley's: " CMR's 14.5Mlb resource is worth about $175m, slightly below our $187.5m valuation. The $64m question is just how much uranium value is presently credited in the share price versus base metals and other assets. This may not be known until the de-mergers complete. We believe that 25Mlb is readily achievable and on average market multiples would be worth $300m"

So $300 mil for the U spin off.

Lets say $25 mil for the base metals spin off.

So that leaves $625 - $300 - $25 = $300mil for Browns.

Again according to Huntley's FY08 NPAT= $55mil

Therefore 08 PE for Browns = 5.4

Absolute no-brainer.

Moonshine
11-05-2007, 11:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Latest Huntley's CMR update today.

CMR market cap = $625 million.

Accordingly to Huntley's: " CMR's 14.5Mlb resource is worth about $175m, slightly below our $187.5m valuation. The $64m question is just how much uranium value is presently credited in the share price versus base metals and other assets. This may not be known until the de-mergers complete. We believe that 25Mlb is readily achievable and on average market multiples would be worth $300m"

So $300 mil for the U spin off.

Lets say $25 mil for the base metals spin off.

So that leaves $625 - $300 - $25 = $300mil for Browns.

Again according to Huntley's FY08 NPAT= $55mil

Therefore 08 PE for Browns = 5.4

Absolute no-brainer.


Agreed Steve.

There has been some serious downward pressure on CMR over the last few months. If global markets capitulate anytime soon and CMR follows the script, one might be able to pick more up close to $4.00.

That WOULD be the bargain of the century.

steve fleming
12-05-2007, 09:57 AM
Hi Moonshine,

yeah $4.00 would be almost too good to be true.

CMR's Mt Fitch scoping study suggested an NPV for Mt Fitch of $275 mil ( ie based on JORC 14.5 mil lbs, - Target = 50 mil lbs).

On this basis Huntley's $300mil value ascribed to the U spin off looks conservative, - esp with a BFS soon to be started.

Going to be a very interesting IPO.

Cheers

steve fleming
30-05-2007, 10:36 PM
Any non-believers of the CMR story should read the chairman's AGM presentation:

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/61a050b862a0a157a58b188c4f2a24bd/ASX-CMR-458457.pdf

Lots of positive 'wealth creation' to come.

I.T.Ancient
22-06-2007, 04:30 PM
Well CMR has had a fine run, and the story is still good, but the sp has been lacklustre over the past 6 months.

I would really like to top up my holdings in ADY & NWE and maybe take a new holding in PSA.

Tell me that CMR still has wings before I succumb to temptation and pull the plug (I like mixed metaphors).

I.T.Ancient
29-06-2007, 10:40 AM
What is this?

6,000,000 crossing at $4.10!

Skol
29-06-2007, 11:26 AM
quote:
Lots of positive 'wealth creation' to come.


Not today- down 60c on no news

denpal
29-06-2007, 04:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Hi Moonshine,

yeah $4.00 would be almost too good to be true.

CMR's Mt Fitch scoping study suggested an NPV for Mt Fitch of $275 mil ( ie based on JORC 14.5 mil lbs, - Target = 50 mil lbs).

On this basis Huntley's $300mil value ascribed to the U spin off looks conservative, - esp with a BFS soon to be started.

Going to be a very interesting IPO.

Steve,

Good buying today, some sold as low as $4.08. I bought back after selling a couple of months back at over $5.

Cheers

steve fleming
30-06-2007, 10:57 AM
Smacks of pre-positioning prior to a takeover.

Engineered cross at 14% discount to last traded price.

Price is then forced down followed by absolutely massive accumulation.


CMR is often talked about as one of the next major resources takeover target....the pre-production lull is great opportunity to build up a stake as holders frustrate on lack of news and delays

Skol
08-07-2007, 08:15 PM
I hope those of you who bought during the sell off on the 29/6 are enjoying your profits. 12% for a week's not bad. Falling knife theory a risk but worth it since there was no news and it's now back where it was.

Dazza
09-07-2007, 09:54 PM
i am getting very excited about CMR :D

wish i had the balls to top up at $4 though

however after doing more research on it, i do now :D

just hope they dun do an AGM on me

otherwise i may add CMR to accumulation list :D

I.T.Ancient
10-07-2007, 08:55 AM
Yes Dazza. I was tempted to sell, but I just couldn't, this one is as you say rather exciting.

steve fleming
16-07-2007, 07:52 PM
CMR topped the indicies today with its excellent 11% increase.

Easily closed on its highs.

Still $2 below Huntleys' valuation and still represents one of the lowest risk resource plays.

Dazza
16-07-2007, 08:28 PM
a jolly good show jolly good show :D

Hommel
15-08-2007, 02:19 PM
Hit hard today, anyone else topping up at these levels? I bought a few more at $4.40 the other day.... I am happy to sit a watch for now!

steve fleming
30-08-2007, 09:38 PM
i am getting very excited about CMR :D

wish i had the balls to top up at $4 though

however after doing more research on it, i do now :D

just hope they dun do an AGM on me

otherwise i may add CMR to accumulation list :D

Unfortunately, looks like they have just done a big AGM Dazza.

There goes CMR's credibility - going to be hard road back from here.

Explains the Hunan selldown last month.

shasta
30-08-2007, 09:51 PM
Unfortunately, looks like they have just done a big AGM Dazza.

There goes CMR's credibility - going to be hard road back from here.

Explains the Hunan selldown last month.

Am watching from the sidelines, til i see some clearer skies ahead...

Though sub $4, like PEM is a steal (after all the sub prime dust settles!).

Dazza
31-08-2007, 02:20 PM
steve care to elabourate? the mine aint opening in october/.

Dazza
31-08-2007, 02:24 PM
BLOOODY DELAYS!!!!!!!11 ARGGGH

but mmmmmmm i will tink about this a bit more, if i am going to sell or not, seems like everywhere there are delays

steve - we all know why hunan sold out ok not cuase of the delays.

Dazza
01-09-2007, 12:03 AM
oh FFS arggggggggggggh

ok have to review my base metals opperations

hacked off hard out man

am deciding weather to drop and run or hold and sink...

steve fleming
01-09-2007, 10:11 AM
Yeah, massively disappointing for CMR on so many levels, Dazza.

It great story unfolding, but the credibility of execution under big question mark now.

According to CMR:

"Sulphide project alone is valued (on NPV basis) between
$6.40 and $21.93 a share
Versus current share price <$4.00
Yet Compass also has an oxide project (NPV of between $60m to $230m) that will deliver operating cash flow this year plus a substantial uranium
asset ($200m to $350m) with upside potential plus a healthy cash balance plus Gold and PGM exploration in NT, NSW exploration plus
Peru plus NSW royalty"

The question is can CMR can deliver on expectations? After what unfolded last week, doubtful....however after what they have acheived over the last 2 years, maybe you give them the benefit of the doubt???

Dazza
01-09-2007, 11:00 PM
i guess for now my cash position i am comfortable with it eh.

I mean i do like their prospects, their mine, the uranium etc etc

and i do know its undervalue... but gosh.... 4 weeks out and they say its delayed....

will think more on it eh.

urself steve? u styaing in?

Dazza
03-09-2007, 05:05 PM
im out

sold today steve

i just cant hold onto it eh

been bitten once be4 with agm

and now 2nd time with cmr

just hope that EQN doesnt run into troubles in zambia

steve fleming
03-09-2007, 10:09 PM
im out

sold today steve

i just cant hold onto it eh

been bitten once be4 with agm

and now 2nd time with cmr

just hope that EQN doesnt run into troubles in zambia

fair enough Dazza...CMR unlikely to do too much until production.

Ps Huntleys downgraded EQN to a hold today

Dazza
04-09-2007, 07:27 PM
cheers steve

ill have a look at it

i have an etrade account which gives me free huntley grades.

Could you please let me know where the EQN downgrade is?

i have just logged onto etrade and the lastest research by Huntleys was in July, they have fair value at $4

but then all these other values as well

FN Arena notes that the avg broker estimates is around $6.50 mark

steve fleming
04-09-2007, 07:43 PM
Yeah you're right Dazza, can't see a recent Huntley report on EQN, but it pops as being downgraded from Accum.to hold on the Recommendation Downgrade list over last 7 days.

per July research "EQN maintains its stability agreement with the Zambian Government will be honoured, locking in a 0.6% royalty for 10 years compared to our previous 3% assumption. Combined with modest near term copper price increases, we upgrade our valuation 33% to $3.65 a share. Long term assumptions remain US$1.75/lb copper, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 13% discount rate for sovereign and construction risk"

Looking fwd to Huntleys CMR update, as they have been massive CMR believers the last 2 years.

steve fleming
10-09-2007, 10:14 PM
Looking fwd to Huntleys CMR update, as they have been massive CMR believers the last 2 years.

....and still have CMR as a buy - a big show of loyalty...far too loyal IMO.

"CMR dropped a bombshell admitting commissioning of its Browns Oxide project is delayed from 4Q07 to 1Q08 and process plant cost will increase by 20-30% or $20-30m. ... It is hard to believe this could come one month from commissioning when shareholders had been told that everything was tracking to plan! It implies a breakdown in communications between the Board and what was happening on site. Our confidence has been shaken.....

....Despite this stumble, we retain our Buy recommendation. Our interest remains chiefly in the quality of the Browns base metal orebody and the near mine prospectivity, including uranium. An orebody of Browns' calibre should financially withstand hiccups such as these. Management has disappointed and we look forward to clarification for the path forward. .... We believe the share price weakness provides an opportunity to buy at a substantial discount to intrinsic value. At these prices, CMR is a takeover candidate. Its Batchelor orebodies have "super pit" potential and the economies that scale affords"

steve fleming
04-10-2007, 10:49 PM
Looking fwd to Huntleys CMR update, as they have been massive CMR believers the last 2 years.

Huntleys now upped their CMR valuation (not target) to $6.50.

CMR currently trading at a 44% discount to this valuation.

Hommel
10-10-2007, 07:23 AM
Yip. I am topping up my CMR holdings at these prices. Have been trying to decide whether to top up CMR, EQN (which I don't have many of) or buy more CBH. I decided to buy more CMR for now. I will also add to EQN when cash is available.

Hommel
12-10-2007, 01:59 AM
$5.66 ... another good day but relatively subdued considering the rumours swirling round the U spot market of $72/lb !!. I bgt another 4,135 shares today ... my average in cost on my 22,385 now a comforting 13c !! ( having come from negative net cost ).... this one will be a star in 2007 ... I would have thought somewhere between $10 and $20 by this time next year ... wide spread I know but who know where U will be ... $120/lb ???

Hi nelehdine, Are you still holding all those CMR shares. I would appreciate your view on the current CMR situation.

The Great Gold Guru
12-10-2007, 09:40 AM
Hi Hommel , I have morphed from Nelehdine to The GGG ... the sharetrader format change a few weeks ago threw me so I just started up under an new name.

Ahhhh , CMR , what a truly awful 2007 , the greatest commodity boom has just passed it by so far this year. Problems with the re-construction of the second hand plant , delays with the Hunan stamp duty issue , and constant director/management selling of the shares have led to stark underperformance. I sold out in March/April my whole holding at ave of $5.46 ... but , I have just bought back in with 5,000 shares at 380 a few days ago. Long term the company should be a winner with a world class deposit in a mining friendly part of the world, close to the Asian markets. The reputation of the company/management of the company has taken a serious hit over the last few months, that will take time to recover, hopefully some more positive drilling results and no further delays in commissioning the oxides plant will help restore the investing public's faith in the shares. At $3.80 I think the shares offer good value if all the bad news is behind it. If there are further problems expect the shares to take another hit. Takeover activity has been remarkably quiet in Australia over the winter , if CMR continues to struggle someone like Oxiana or Zinifex will take them over, the orebody is world class, no denying that ... decent management would extract tremendous value, the only caveat to that is that Hunan have bgt 50% of the deposit and OXR or ZFX may not want a partner they have not dealt with before.

Overall at these prices ( $3.78 ) I think the risk/reward ratio is worth a decent punt . I will buy a few more shares on a decisive break back above $4. There could be another 50c down side but if things get back on track the shares could/should double in the next couple of years assuming the commodity bull keeps running.

Hope that helps.

Hommel
12-10-2007, 12:10 PM
Thanks alot for that TGGG. I appreciate your perspective. I am also holding CBH and EQN. Waiting patiently for CBH to be re-rated (Up hopefully, LOL)

Yme
01-11-2007, 12:18 AM
recon CMR is on the turn now ,,,

putting in a tripple bottom on the daily chart,,,,,

toot toot

Yme

steve fleming
14-11-2007, 09:41 PM
and still Huntleys back CMR!

"Our Buy recommendation is retained. Demonstration of latent value in the sulphide project should be a key driver of the share price. We only apply a 50% weighting to our Sulphide valuation. Applying 100% would increase our CMR valuation from $6.50ps to $9.30ps. Successful first production from the start-up Oxide component in 1Q08 will add value, both in terms of the positive implications for the Sulphides, and the kudos for management. A consequent reduction in our discount rate from 15% to 10% would increase the valuation at 50% Sulphides to $8.40ps or at 100% Sulphides to $12.80ps."

Huang Chung
14-11-2007, 10:05 PM
Overall, I find Huntleys pretty good, but they seem to miss the mark completely with some stocks.....clankers that come to mind are include luke warm recommendations on NCM, JBM, BKN & LHG....which in hindsight would have proven to be exceptional buys.

Guess you can't get it right all the time.:confused: