Underweight/Overweight?

[Lawso]

I'm in the process of reviewing the weightings in the various NZX and ASX stocks I hold and am wondering how the portfolio compares in this respect with other investors (not frequent traders, for obvious reasons).

CAV is still my biggest holding, now 14.08%, down from the giddy heights of +20%. This is due to having sold a few last year at 540 :), the current price weakness and growth in other stuff.

Next in line are WPT 11.61%, AIA 10.77, WAM 8.16, TEL 7.67, FBU 7.09, PFI 6.93, CEN 5.68 and NPX 5.23.

Ten others follow, from goodies like DPC and MGP to garbage like RMG.

I'm planning to buy more NPX and probably STU (currently under 4%) but can't see me adding new stocks, other than at an IPO, eg Vector.

Anyone else like to contribute? Or am I boring you?

[OldRider]

LAWSO: You have raised a point that interests me, we have a restriction that limits any company to 5% of total portfolio value,so hold more companies than most. At the moment ASX:NZX is 75:25. You seem to have listed NZX companies so extracting from my NZX holdings only,with percentage relating just to this group:

STU 13%,AIA 13%,NPX 10%,IFT 10%,HBY 10%,FPA 8%,
CEN 8%,FBU 7%,CNZ 7%,WAM 7% balance CTL,ROC,POT,GPG,CAV.

I have a system,far from ideal at this stage, for calculating weightings. Only ocasionally is a new company added/dropped from the list. Consistently I sell a third or half of a holding of something I see going out of favour,switching to what I like more.

A record is kept of these switches, comparing what would have happened to what did happen, on a transaction by transaction basis. Over 90% success,biggest mess up this year was selling some NUF for ATR. Might come right in the long term though. Glad it was only a third sold.

I would be interested if you care to post the weightings you decide on, with any thoughts on how you reached your conclusions.

OR

[Snow Leopard]

If I have read it right you have 19 stocks in your long-term portfolio?

I currently have only 5
<pre id="code">
MFT 40.20%
TWR 19.51%
IFT 16.33%
FTX 15.36%
NOGOC 8.59%
</pre id="code">
TWR will split into TWR and AUW(on the ASX) this month and I will pay to exercise my entitlements and keep both.
Come June I need to convert the NOGOC to NOG.
I am also looking at buying NPX, and am monitoring the price for a suitable entry point.
Other than that I will be interested in buying VCT when it happens, and if any of my holdings hit real bad news then I would be out quick.

[limegreen]

My New Zealand portolio is currently

GPG NZX 19.29%
SKX NZX 9.11%
MFT NZX 8.75%
FBU NZX 8.36%
FTX NZX 5.60%
VTX NZX 5.03%
BOZ NZX 1.60%

I'm happy with being overweight in GPG and having good holdings of FBU and MFT. However, I'm starting to think that holding FTX, VTX, and SKX, while doing OK, are not strong performers.

Considering adding NOGOC, AIA (wish I'd never sold X2!) and toppin gup FBU.

RIN ASX 18.73%
WMR ASX 9.96%
ANZ ASX 7.08%
MIG ASX 6.47%

Again happy overweight in RIN. Takeover possibility on WMR means looking for a new home soon. ANZ underperformer, considering topping up MIG, or perhaps AWC

[Halebop]

Hmmm. It would be interesting to see cash balances in the mix too to give an indication of optimism / pessimism.

I personally think economic cycles have peaked in NZ and Australia for a little bit and have become pessimistic about consumer cyclicals in particular. Not willing to bet the farm on it but still think there is mileage in a number of resourses / commodities. I also think costs and earnings will be exasperated in the next 1 to 2 years: Continued high commodity prices courtesy of China, India Etc and associated inflation combined with softening currencies in NZ & OZ versus the $US. I think the NZ$ may fall relative to the Aussie as well, particularly if we do start seeing some interest rate cuts.

Having said that right now I'm:

New Zealand...
10.10% $NZ Cash

Australia...
77.48% $AU Cash
11.75% GCL.ax
0.67% AFC.ax

I'd love to get some more AFC but not willing to buy at current prices without clearer earnings guidance.

[limegreen]

My NZ cash (well the amount of my mortgage facility that I haven't got invested) is about 17% of the valuation of my share portfolio. I have about $3AUD in my foreign currency account. I'd wager that I have more in small australian change!

[k1w1]

In looking at your portfolio's the thought that struck me was that you guys need to consider why you have such a low weighting into property stocks. Property will be the next mover as the stock market slowly goes off the boil. I detect a growing optimism in this sector.

I am not saying that you should necessarily buy them, but you should have an answer as to why you are weighted as you are.

I am not confident I know enough about bonds to hold more than a small amount in that asset class.

[kittydashwood]

Interesting thread.

GPN
Global Pmts Inc

1.27%

BJBIX
Julius Baer:Intl Eq;A

7.57%

V
Vivendi Universal

0.57%

MSK
Grupo Industrial Maseca, S.A. de C.V.

1.53%




OAKMX
Oakmark Fund;I

3.26%

FMIMX
FMI:Common Stock

1.78%

AU:IGO
Independence Group

0.72%


MIOFX
Marsico Inv Fd:Intl Op

6.43%

WSTL
Westell Technologies Inc Cl A

1.83%

SAN
Banco Santander Chile New

0.50%




ILF
iShares:S&P Lat Am 40

1.14%

GROW
US Global Investors Cl A Pfd

0.75%


NZ:RBC
Rubicon

0.15%


TNH
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.

2.10%

NZ:PFI
Property For Ind

0.99%


CASH
Australian Dollar

6.01%

CASH
New Zealand Dollar

4.27%

LPX
Louisiana Pac Corp

1.56%


MVOG
Maverick Oil & Gas Inc

1.62%


HBC
HSBC Hldgs Plc

1.35%




NZ:NOGOC
Nz Oil & Gas

0.54%

C
Citigroup, Inc.

2.79%


SPY
SPDR Trust;1

6.98%


RRI
Reliant Energy Inc

1.31%


DVY
iShares:Dow Sel Div Ix

7.05%


GE
General Electric Company

1.80%

NZ:SKX
Skellmax Ind

0.27%


AU:CGM
Cougar Metals Nl

0.22%


IWM
iShares:Russ 2000 Idx

5.53%

NZ:PPP
Pan Pacific Petrol

0.68%

NZ:HQP
Hirequip Nz Ltd

0.52%

SIRI
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc

0.93%

WAAEX
Wasatch:Sm Cap Gr

3.47%

OAKBX
Oakmark Eqty & Inc;I

16.69%

IIF
Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc.

1.62%

CASH
United States Dollar

2.90%

NZ:NOG
Nz Oil & Gas

0.52%

AU:NLX
Nylex Ltd

0.76%

Looking to exit HBC, SPY and DVY to increase cash position to 20% (mainly NZ) & extend long positions in AU:IGO, AU:CGM, NZ:PPP, NZ:HQP.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

In looking at your portfolio's the thought that struck me was that you guys need to consider why you have such a low weighting into property stocks. Property will be the next mover as the stock market slowly goes off the boil. I detect a growing optimism in this sector.

I am not saying that you should necessarily buy them, but you should have an answer as to why you are weighted as you are...


From a fundamentals and valuation perspective real estate just doesn't light my fire. Although there is an improved degree of security in having a lease it is capital intensive, low yielding and cyclical. This means that a large amount of borrowing is needed to make a property play really profitable. I personally borrow very rarely for investment although will if the risk / reward ratio seems desirable. I don't like investing in companies with high borrowings either - they have a higher default risk and less flexibility to make those great, once in a cycle, company building acquisitions in times of distressed prices. While any cycle can be managed profitably I prefer to take mine with high ROA / ROE and low or no debt.

Finally, I think the jury is still out on where we are in the property cycle. There's been a few good years already.

[limegreen]

quote:you have such a low weighting into property stocks.

I have the uneducated opinion that property stocks are where the shysters are at!! Also, I'm doing pretty happily without them, and FBU are doing the building!

What property stocks would you suggest that I look at? I've looked at APT, but it doesn't seem too riveting.

[zyreon]

securitised property is good for an income oriented portfolio

[zyreon]

incidentally while we're on this topic...

is anyone actively perusing portfolio hedging? (I'm not, i have the luxury of short-term orientation)

[OldRider]

Halebop: We have property owned separately from shares. Since retirement,round 5 years ago, for similar investment in each, income from property(rent/dividends) has been about double that from shares, growth about half.

What I have found since retiring is that my knowlege of what is going on round the town is becoming less and less, meeting far less of the right people now. Realising this I am less happy about the property so will probably sell shorly,then will be looking at where to invest the proceeds. The same has not happened with shares, in fact I think I find out more tha previously.

[Lawso]

Thanks for the great responses so far, everyone. Too much for me to absorb and comment sensibly on at this time. Kitty's global spread blows me away! But here's a couple of points:

Yes, PT, I hold 19 NZX and ASX stocks, but only 15 that really matter, the others being consigned to the bottom drawer. Last year I had as many as 22. Some say I might as well be in a managed fund or an index fund like Tenz, but I reckon I can do better on my own, without paying fees or c g tax. Besides, I enjoy it! And the nosh and drinks at agms!

You've made good choices with your 5, PT, but I prefer to spread my risks. To each his own, as they say.

Property: I'm in three NZ listed property stocks plus an Australian managed fund that invests in LPTs like Westfield. Combined they represent about 17% of all investments, incl. f i instruments, a level I'm comfortable with. I've been a landlord once or twice and haven't enjoyed it.

Of the NZ listed property stocks I like MGP best, probably because it's given me a 16% paper gain in about six weeks. In Australia Westfield has been a brilliant performer.

Cheers everyone. This is what ST is or should be all about.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by OldRider

Halebop: We have property owned separately from shares. Since retirement,round 5 years ago, for similar investment in each, income from property(rent/dividends) has been about double that from shares, growth about half.

What I have found since retiring is that my knowlege of what is going on round the town is becoming less and less, meeting far less of the right people now. Realising this I am less happy about the property so will probably sell shorly,then will be looking at where to invest the proceeds. The same has not happened with shares, in fact I think I find out more tha previously.

Thats an interesting perspective OldRider. I wonder if the average investor is as active in the management of their property investment options? Are you in residential or some form of commercial? Could you be at the forefront of baby boomer property investment trends?

[KJ]

My LT portfolio..
FBU 13%
HQP 10%
NPX 9%
TPW 9%
GPG 9%
DPC 9%
HBY 8%
EBO 7%
RYM 7%
PGC 6%
FTB-WB-4%
HLG 4%
FRE 2%
CTL 2%

In addition I have a separate portfolio of Trading stocks (yes.. taxable)-currently FBU,TPW,NOG.
Property-sold rental properties over the last 12 mths after 10 yrs or so.Have sufficient property in house we live in.

[Dazza]

mmmm wow...
thats all i can say...
i thought i had it bad... but then my total portolio is only 14k.

anyways heres mine.

34% NOGOC
25% PBG
16% NOG
9% TEL
9% CEN
7% SKC

am going to increase holdings in TEL/CEN/SKC maybe....

there are just so many other shares out there... cueva, ctl, atr, ciy...

[Snow Leopard]

Crikey KittyD, are you running a personal portfolio or an international investment fund[?]

[stephen]

I'm so glad this was brought up - I've been really lax, and I had to create a spreadsheet to tell me because I haven't been tracking this explicitly. In the light of this, I'm going to have a rethink.

Anyway:

ASX shares 78.52%
NZX shares 14.59%
Cash (AUD and NZD) 6.89%

Not included: 67 ASX.ION shares leftover from an erroneous trade (current net value 0.00), various stashes of cash saved for other purposes, a super scheme, and my beloved wine cellar...

NZ:
DPC 28.78%
POT 59.64%
Cash 11.58%

Australia:
ATR 20.46 %
CIY 29.34%
GTP 10.39%
OTI 3.65%
PRG 9.44%
TOL 11.73%
UXC 9.03%
Cash 5.96%

I'm thinking I want to be liberating/stashing some cash soon. Also might be moving a little more back into NZ, especially if the rate improves vs AUD. (Figures above at 0.92 AUD to 1 NZD).

[limegreen]

quote:my beloved wine cellar...

Ok, so time to come clean. I'd guess that my investment is around 4-5% of the value of my share portfolio. Nil chance of capital gain, but I find the 'dividend' very rewarding!

Anybody else willing to value their vices against their portfolio?

[Halebop]

My Star Wars Lego is priceless.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by limegreen


quote:my beloved wine cellar...

Ok, so time to come clean. I'd guess that my investment is around 4-5% of the value of my share portfolio. Nil chance of capital gain, but I find the 'dividend' very rewarding!

Anybody else willing to value their vices against their portfolio?


I have had some great capital gains out of wine, but have always undertaken capital repayments to holders. [:p]
I have been surprised how the price of good quality wines bought direct from reputable wineries have appreciated in value. I have bottles that I bought for $20 now selling for over $80 two years later. [:0]

[kittydashwood]

Still to much to learn on the technical front to run a fund. However 75% of the way to being fianancially independant.
Maybe in ten years..:)

[Steve]

My current NZ portfolios:

NZR 19.0% Investment
GPG 9.9% Investment
PFI 9.9% Investment
HLG 9.5% Investment
CEN 8.0% Investment
SCT 5.7% Investment
CASH$ 5.1% $$$
FPH 3.9% Investment
BLT 3.6% Investment
SOE 3.5% Trading
VTL 3.4% Trading
WPL 3.4% Trading
PEB 3.3% Investment
FPA 3.1% Investment
SCY 2.5% Investment
FTX 2.0% Trading
NTH 1.9% Investment
BOZ 1.9% Investment
ATM 0.2% Investment

[k1w1]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

My Star Wars Lego is priceless.


You really are an actuary aren't you Bop.

[Lawso]

quote: mmmm wow...
thats all i can say...
i thought i had it bad... but then my total portolio is only 14k.


anyways heres mine.

34% NOGOC
25% PBG
16% NOG
9% TEL
9% CEN
7% SKC

am going to increase holdings in TEL/CEN/SKC maybe....

there are just so many other shares out there... cueva, ctl, atr, ciy...

A quick comment: Good on you Dazza for getting started at what I guess is a fairly young age. No doubt you're in a position to build up your holdings from salary and divs. I reckon that dividend reinvestment plans are ideal for the likes of you. CEN operates one for those who hold fewer than 5000 shares. Many others do. It's worth checking around.

I've been reinvesting PFI's quarterly dividends since 1999 and am enjoying the benefits of compounding. The value of my holding is up by 40% since 1999, though the share price has only moved by less than 20%, and the growth will accelerate the longer I hold.

A similar story with the Australian Unity Property Fund, which invests in listed property trusts in Oz. I plan to hold long term, for as long as I can manage without the div income.
The growth may not be spectacular but it gets better every year.

[limegreen]

I'm maybe a year or two further down the trail in some respects, and can certainly say that DRPs from MIG.au and GPG have seen me very well (I only wish I'd been on GPG's since '98 rather than '00) and have recently signed up for FBU. With smallish holdings, divis are trivial, and much better reinvested.

[Winston001]

Just dropped in on this thread. Dividend reinvestment is a winner where available. I always take it.

I started investing in 1980 with 200 ANZ which cost $200. That was 2 1/2 weeks income at the time.

Today with shares in lieu of dividend and taking up rights issues I have about 4000 shares. Fortunately ANZ has been a winner as a business.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

You really are an actuary aren't you Bop.


Does the geekiness show?

[Lawso]

quote: Today with shares in lieu of dividend and taking up rights issues I have about 4000 shares.
Good on you, Winnie. That's around $85k. What's been your total outlay since '84?

[limegreen]

I've just added a small (5%) punt on NOGOC last week. I've kept it small-ish partly because it's had such a good run, but also to ensure that I have funds to exercise.

[kittydashwood]

Sold HBC stake on bounce. Holding cash 15%

[Placebo]

What an interesting thread. Has thrown up a couple of questions for me:
1: How closely people monitor their investments and are aware of what they have. Holding only a few stocks means I can do this fairly effectively, I would be hard pressed to do this with a larger portfolio.
2: Dividend reinvestment I agree is a great idea, compounding without the brokerage. But I find companies and Computershare don't make it easy to find which companies have them. Only one I am with currently is CEN. I see this as good for the company too as it encourages shareholder loyalty.

Anyway: My weightings (by value, presume that's the measure everyone else using, all NZX):
SKC 30%
AIA 22%
CEN 20%
WAM 12%
FBU 10%
FTB (excluding warrants): 6%

A new holder in FBU and hoping to build that up.

[Tinker]

23% NZX
58% ASX
10% LSE
9% cash

underweight in picking winners:D

[Winston001]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso
Good on you, Winnie. That's around $85k. What's been your total outlay since '84?


Good question. I recall having to spend about $7000 on a rights issue plus perhaps another $3000 on rights. I've probably forgone $16,000 in dividends to accumulate the extra shares but its a winner. Assuming ANZ doesn't crash. :D

[kittydashwood]

Moving to 30% cash position. Out of IWM and other small cap US funds.

[Lawso]

Kitty: Are you what is known as a scaredy-cat?

[rotsevni]

quote:Originally posted by KJ
In addition I have a separate portfolio of Trading stocks (yes.. taxable

KJ: (off-topic) how do you record for the IRD which are not Trading Stocks and do you ever re-designate stocks from trading to non?

[KJ]

My LT (non trading)stocks -I record at the time of purchase on the Broker advice whether it is a LT or a Trade.More importantly,when I sell a LT stock I carefully record on the Broker advice the reasons for the sale.ie protection of capital,disagree with direction the coy is taking etc.

I am careful about keeping to this without exception.It would be very simple for IRD to obtain details of our purchaese and sales and audit anyone of us.The information is all on broker's computer records.

I do not redesignate.

[rotsevni]

Thanks KJ, that's good advice

[Tim]

It is interesting to read in the Sunday paper today which says investors should be moving more money overseas. If this is so what are the best vehicles to do this? Also should one have 50% overseas and say 50% NZ and Australia - is this the optimum one should be aiming for. Your thoughts appreciated

[kittydashwood]

USD NZD rate resistance broken this weekend. Thinking of bringing money back actually.

[kittydashwood]

35% cash Stoploss out of mid and small cap US etf IWM and the high yield DVY. Banking sector looks shaky. All the free money has fueled a spate of m&A now that's over people will be rationalising, consolidating and contracting.

[kittydashwood]

This week saw a further stoploss out of RRI & GE. I thinkI ran my GE stop loss to close as it is back up 35.53. Bought EWZ KERX PCU CH. Continuing to run 35% cash. Thinking about batteries and SOROS/BUFFET buying into TIME WARNER/COMCAST.

[kittydashwood]

rebalanced to:

15% Cash
12% Latin America Stocks
25% US Stocks
3% Australian Stocks
12% New Zealand Stocks
33% Managed Funds

[limegreen]

I'm out of some underperforming NZX stocks (vtx & skx) to:
19% NZ cash
44% NZ shares
37% AU shares

Call me young and reckless, but I think I'm prepared to chance my arm on some solid NZ stocks still (perhaps top up FBU), but definitely interested in an ASX bargain

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by limegreen

I don't think I really read your old post on under/overweight too carefully, because I didn't actually comprehend how cashed up you are! Do you believe there are some better buying prospects in the medium-term? Just curious, as I have been increasing my cash reserves recently, but nowhere near your levels.


Hi LG,

Thought I'd post the answer here since it was a bit off topic on the other thread. I was previously light on equities anyway but have since sold AFC and GCL but bought a small parcel in MAL which is looking like getting stopped out rather than being profitable for me.

At the moment I'm:

99.4% Cash (Mostly AU)
0.6% ASX

I was speculating on some short term weakness in GCL but sat out too long. I may yet buy back in but I can consol myself with a 110% 6 month gain if I don't.

I'm still feeling bullish about some resources but am considering the various possibilities before jumping. I'm feeling more confident that we may be seeing a structural change in resources and markets - perhaps a return to the 70s where China is a surrogate for the demand/inflation problems previously created by Japan and the boomers. Big call to get wrong though! Some of the gold bulls (also known as "conspiracy theorists") are sounding logical for a change so I'm not sure if they are right or I need Prozac.

[Lawso]

quote:Call me young and reckless, but I think I'm prepared to chance my arm on some solid NZ stocks still (perhaps top up FBU)
Good on you, limegreen. The chart Phaedrus has just posted on the FBU Chart thread may encourage you to top up on that stock.

[limegreen]

Haha. Just saw the boss-man's chart. I'd been doodling up something similar myself. For while I think in the medium/long the economy is going to slow... the rate-rise was driven by it's continued good performance in the short/medium. Thus, I'm hoping that an exit-plan should help me get some more profit yet. Just a matter of avoiding stocks that are harmed by the exchange rate.

FBU's down a little again this morning, hoping to get in near the bottom of this dip/pre-dividend [8D][8D]

I got stopped out of Feltex this afternoon. I don't see the point in high dividend stocks with exposure to certain forex rates at the moment. It also leaves me (with the exception of Botryzen) in only up-trending stocks. Thus, I'm not too unhappy with the balance. I've lost most of my dead-wood, and am now 38NZX/38ASX/23NZcash and looking for bargains.

[thereslifeafter87]

I am 100% ASX stocks at the moment, and have been for about a year or so.

I don't believe in much diversification, I prefer to bet big on stocks with a significant margin of safety.

My portfolio is 43.6% UOS
44.5% ATR
9.8% FAN
2.1% CIY

[kittydashwood]

Set SPY stoploss to 115.45,will cash up all if this breaks.

[Dazza]

updated holdings excl dividends and new shares from drips

NOG/OC 35%
PBG 16%
ATR 10%
RPL 9%
AIA 9%
CEN 8%
TEL 7%
SKC 6%

portfolio now 16k. looking to sell off PBG when it reaches back to 3.50 again *wheneva that will happen -_-*, was a mistake buying into the IPO rush.

DRIPs : for PBG, SKC, TEL, CEN

[Placebo]

Dazza: a little surprised given your chosen career path that you haven't bought into BDO. Ye of little faith??[:p]

[Dazza]

LPL u say
sorry but i dun tink i should disclose my reasons as to why i aint buying them :D

my career path... id rather put all my eggs into a WHOLE pharmacy.... :D

[limegreen]

Been a bit of a re-shuffle with me over the past few weeks. Not as much in cash as some would advise, but I'm pretty comfortable with the behaviour of the stocks I'm holding at the moment:

ANZ 7%
MIG 7%
RIN 17%
WMR 9%
--ASX 40%
BOZ 1%
FBU 12%
GPG 16%
MFT 9%
WAM 6%
--NZX 44%
CASH 16%

With exception of BOZ (stupid punt) and WMR (erratic but good due to takeover), they're all in uptrends. That's my new goal. Own shares trending up over the longterm.

[kittydashwood]

12% Latin America Stocks
25% US Stocks
3% Australian Stocks
15% New Zealand Stocks
30% Managed Funds
15% Cash

Bumped out of the SPY and my first 5 bagger FORD.
Have dropped remaining stoplosses to allow further falls, tempted to cash up all but have decided to stick with the holdings I have and build on weakness.

Returns are be a secondary priority to estabilishing asubstantial stake in three NZX companies over the next two quarters.

[Halebop]

Pretty much as before:

Cash ($A) 98.50%
Cash ($NZ) 1.50%
Shares 0.0%

...But for the 1st time in years I've got a USA based value play on my horizon!

[kittydashwood]

Sounds interesting Halebop, any names?

[limegreen]

I'm now underweight on the NZX and over half in (NZ) cash

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Sounds interesting Halebop, any names?


Sorry Kittydashwood, I somehow missed your question.

I'm still not 100% convinced about my target yet (and its still in downtrend) but I will put together some analysis for discussion and post here in a week or so. There are lots of aspects about the company I'm unsure how to quantify.

[trackers]

75% NOG/OC
25% PPP &lt;--- Might convert to cash or swap for some cheap AFF.

[kittydashwood]

Moved to 25% cash.
Closed up GROW TWX and was stopped out of NFG.
Finger on the button with TIDE & CHL

Check out that SAN another nice result!
Best bank in the southern hemisphere!

[TerryA]

&gt;&gt;Best bank in the southern hemisphere!&lt;&lt;

You may not know of him but Ira Goldstein would dispute that statement !

[kittydashwood]

Stopped out of TNH for a small profit.
Sold CMT for 40% profit.
Stopped out of FORD again and missed the lovely rise today.

Two stocks blasted through stops and I am now left holding GNA and PCU both carrying 15% losses. Steel and Copper are suddenly unfashionable overnight as hedge funds try to lock in some gains to offset their small cap losses? I guess nervousness around the yuan too weighing on commodities.

GNA and PCU are both paying high dividends so I will hold on and watch. Although the charts look awfully similiar to the CAV chart last year.

[trendy]

Kitty have a look at the weekly charts for PFE and MRK. I like the trend with both, have jumped into PFE as it is getting upward momentum. Div is forecast to rise again this year.

[kittydashwood]

Yeah PFE could have bottomed out. Will watch, the only Healthcare sector holding I have is STJ.
Looking to hop back into EFJI too, the much fabled homeland security spend is only just starting to trickle through. carefull on the GE looks like the short positions are setting up for a nasty fall and so many BUY ratingss!!! It will be a nasty unwind..


Can't believe that dividend yield for PCU 20%!!!

[kittydashwood]

PCU ranks number two on analysts least favourable list.
But check out the recent drop in short interest as positions are unwound. Interesting stuff, poor old GS Seems forecasting the right picture can get you into trouble as an investment banker.

[kittydashwood]

Steel Sector gave buy signal today.
Buys confirmed also for CHI and DNB.
Now 11% cash.
NZ:HQP sitting on the stop again.

Golden ratio stop loss and price targets.

[kittydashwood]

Buy confirmed for CMT DECK CHI CMP TIDE.

Tide - Tidelands are waiting approval for pipeline linking the fast growing North of Mexico with Southern Texas gasfields.

Waiting and watching PAS GS GPN

US Equites 60%
AUS Equites 2.5%
SOUTH AMERICA Equities 7%
NZ Equites 13%
International Equites 9.5%
Cash 8%

[kittydashwood]

Hope yuse feelas gots da TIDE coz it's coming in fast.

Check out the EPS of CMT hahahahahahahahah ten bagger coming. Let's see same earnings as FORD (suggested a few months back and of course they moved from 7$ to 20$) CMT has a similiar look TA wise. Just look at that money flow and OBV!!!!

Schaeffers TA predicts DOW break out of 1500 pts (12100's), seems index has bounced off the 80mth support and the VIX rally of April and into May was the climax of the fear factor that has dominated throughout the first part of the year. Oil prices in 1970's dollars are still way below the prices of the 1970's and as some say the American debt is good for business, hell the worst return years were through the years america ran a surplus. Some agrue that running a surplus takes a country further from optimum economic performance and that substantial debt is need to fuel growth. Not very Cullenesque and probably not a good call for more cyclical economies like NZ, where surpluses are needed to balance out lean periods.

Buy confirmed GBX

DECK purchase now looking a little pre-emptive. [:I]


Back in old shaky PPP looking very tasty with those yummy big blocks of 100,000
Remember "it's a mining company." HAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Yeah right! This is an exploration company with 10% of the best new petroleum fields found in this country in the last 15 years. I would like to see the NOG model makers apply their value calculators to this one. My fundamentals are pretty amateur butI make PPP at .175-.25 cents without additional discoveries.


US Equites 61%
AUS Equites 2.5%
SOUTH AMERICA Equities 7%
NZ Equites 13%
International Equites 9.5%
Cash 7%

[kittydashwood]

Stop loss out on PCU and MMM.
Will look to renter PCU but have doubts about continuing to follow MMM. Anybody out there hold MMM?
Confirmed buy ONNN TWTC

MSK & TIDE retracement could give another buying opportunity later in the week.

[kittydashwood]

Took profits on CMT looking to reenter maybe just under 10$, this ride should go close to the 20$ mark.

Amazing spurt from 10$ to 11.54 for Ford Motors today only to give up all the gains before the bell as day traders took profits. Beaten up auto look like rallying.

Bears Stern downgrades the trucking and transport sector.

Big sell off all the names are down. Probably an overreaction so could be an opportunity. ODFL my only holding gapped down through the stop loss but happy to hold on as this company has a great earnings record.
PCU weakness set to continue as the company brings over 10mill shares to market in an effort to boost liquidity. Should be a buying opportunity below 38$ soon I hope.
Looking at all the other copper stocks POT (fertiliser co, and diversified mining co) has sucked in a huge chunk of Chiles biggest copper producer and is set to run over the ton.

Google 300$ a share ? Crazy times as the churning market produces little bubbles.

[kittydashwood]

More on US autos....

The outspoken chairman of TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. said he feared the
possibility that U.S. policy could turn against Japanese
automakers if local giants such as GENERAL MOTORS CORP. and
FORD MOTOR CO. were to collapse. "Many people say the car
industry wouldn't revisit the kind of trade friction we saw in
the past because Japanese automakers are increasing local
production in the United States, but I don't think it's that
simple," Hiroshi Okuda told a news conference. "General Motors
Corp. and FORD MOTOR CO. are symbols of U.S. industry, and if
they were to crumble it could fan nationalistic sentiment. I
always have a fear that that in turn could manifest itself in
policy decisions," he said, speaking as the head of the
nation's biggest business lobby, the Japan Business Federation.
Both GM and Ford have been cutting back output as they lose
sales to Asian brands led by Toyota, which now controls 13.4%
of the U.S. car market, the world's biggest.

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

More on US autos....

The outspoken chairman of TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. said he feared the
possibility that U.S. policy could turn against Japanese
automakers if local giants such as GENERAL MOTORS CORP. and
FORD MOTOR CO. were to collapse. "Many people say the car
industry wouldn't revisit the kind of trade friction we saw in
the past because Japanese automakers are increasing local
production in the United States, but I don't think it's that
simple," Hiroshi Okuda told a news conference. "General Motors
Corp. and FORD MOTOR CO. are symbols of U.S. industry, and if
they were to crumble it could fan nationalistic sentiment. I
always have a fear that that in turn could manifest itself in
policy decisions," he said, speaking as the head of the
nation's biggest business lobby, the Japan Business Federation.
Both GM and Ford have been cutting back output as they lose
sales to Asian brands led by Toyota, which now controls 13.4%
of the U.S. car market, the world's biggest.



Yes, and in terms of benefitting the US economy this would not be a bad excuse for tariffs or subsidies, at least in the short term.

[Kookaburra]

Interesting thread. I am much more spread than most but given that 2/3 assets in shares this is necessary for safety as my ownership has a high risk component
BCA 0.05
DPC 0.02
FBU 0.02
FPH 0.02
GPG 0.14
MET 0.06
NOG 0.05
PPP 0.01
PVO 0.01
RPL 0.03
RYM 0.05
SKC 0.04
WAM 0.05
WHS 0.02

BPC 0.03
CPU 0.12
CSL 0.05
IDT 0.01
IFM 0.01
OGD 0.02
QBE 0.11
SMM 0.00
WPL 0.07

Cash 0.01

Tend to sell out of anything that gets well above trend line and aiming to shift more to Aus.

[Dough Boy]

For you info my split is

75% equity and 25% debt (property mortgages)

So funding costs approximately 1.5% on total assets.

Of total assets:

60% property

30% shares on NZX, ASX and HKX

10% cash

Of shares:

12% NZX

6% HKX

12% ASX

In each market have 20 shares with a target weight of 5% amd a range of 2.5% to 10%.

Regularly cull what I consider overpriced or shares that have gone their distance and top up on underweight. Average turnover 20% per year.

[kittydashwood]

Looking to top up on TIDE and GNA today both have given new buy signals. Futures are up for today so it could be another light green day. Certainly the bulls have been buying despite oil over 57$ this morning.
Excited by the whole fertiliser sector!!! Have held TNH for years now and recently missed the boat with POT sub 90$. It looks like the second quater and most likely the rest of the year will outperform the index.

PotashCorp Raises Second Quarter Earnings Guidance
Listed: TSX, NYSE Symbol: POT
6/16/2005 6:00:36 AM

SASKATOON, SK, June 16, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) today announced that it is increasing its second quarter earnings guidance, and now expects net income for the quarter to be between $1.40 and $1.50 per diluted share, up from the $1.00 to $1.25 guidance initially provided. An excellent spring season and better than expected market fundamentals have led to higher prices in all three nutrients, and will translate into stronger quarterly financial performance. Where the company falls in the range is expected to depend on where the exchange rate finishes the quarter, with a weaker Canadian dollar putting it in the top of the range.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. is the world's largest fertilizer enterprise producing the three primary plant nutrients and a leading supplier to three distinct market categories: agriculture, with the largest capacity in the world in potash, third largest in phosphate and fourth largest in nitrogen; animal nutrition, with the world's largest capacity in phosphate feed ingredients; and industrial chemicals, as the largest global producer of industrial nitrogen products.

[nelehdine]

Are you still extremely "underweight" Australian equities Kitty ?? Market hit a new record high yesterday ... any thoughts on adding more money to Oz ... momentum investing if you like. A simple portfolio of say 4 stocks would give a good exposure to the Australian economy and commodity cycle ... BHP,CBA,PBL,WOW

[kittydashwood]

Yes Nele
Still underrweight in Aussie and not without reason.
I have this nagging feeling that many ASX shares are fully valued and can't seem to find many buying opportunities. I still hold small allocations of IGO PIF ORG AWE NUF and GRD.
My regional focus is South America in particular Brazil, Peru and Chile, countries which are equally well placed to benefit from the resource boom and will probably be into a FTA with China well before the Lucky Country.

Was momentum trading on NLX up till January but haven't re-entered since.
Have thought about holding quality NZ companies on the ASX to take advantage of any exchange imbalance (GPG AIA or NPX).

You mention PBL, any others in the sector that you like?

NB
Did increase TIDE holding but decided to wait on GNA after selling pressure today.
Watching DOR who are developing a Ricin vaccine in association with department of HS, Technical bottom reached?

[kittydashwood]

Stopped out of CMT for another 20%
Will it happen again?
TIDE on the stop loss.

[kittydashwood]

Bought AU:GRD after being a on and off again holder since 2000, I believe they are heading into an earnings bump.

Holding TIDE despite stop loss breach. Money Flow and OBV still rising.

Should be a big surge when the management announce a move to a bigger exchange platform.

Steel sector looking very grim as profit warning issued by Nuecor for 2Q and all stocks in the sector slide. Have continued to hold GNA despite losses approaching 20% now, If they can continue the level of dividend payout and solve labour dispute the SP should rebound.
But i'm probably dreaming and should book what will be my biggest loss in 5 years of investing.
US Equites 61%
AUS Equites 3.5%
SOUTH AMERICA Equities 7%
NZ Equites 13%
International Equites 10.5%
Cash 5%

[kittydashwood]

Cramer's 'Mad Money': Don't Panic Over Oil Burn

On CNBC's "Mad Money," Jim Cramer said the market had a "first class panic" Thursday, featuring a 166-plus point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. "The market is throwing a sale and it's not discriminating between what needs oil lower and what doesn't," he said in the opening monologue. "Let's discriminate and get ready to do some buying."

In a Cramer-esque version of the paired trade, the television host laid out a number of stocks that "aren't working" and should be sold and recommended corresponding names that should be bought instead.





Cramer said the market "wants out" of stocks such as Tyco (TYC:NYSE - commentary - research) -- "which needs [fast] GDP growth we may not have anymore" -- and wants into United Health (UNH:NYSE - commentary - research), which helps keep health care costs down.


"People should swap out of AMR (AMR:NYSE - commentary - research) and go into Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - commentary - research)," he said.


"Get out of Ford (F:NYSE - commentary - research) and into Genentech (DNA:NYSE - commentary - research)," he said, calling Ford above $10 "a gift."


"Sell Yellow Roadway (YELL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) -- it isn't coming back -- and buy Motorola (MOT:NYSE - commentary - research)."


"Sell Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE - commentary - research) and buy Gillette (G:NYSE - commentary - research)."


"Sell CSX (CSX:NYSE - commentary - research) and buy General Mills (GIS:NYSE - commentary - research)."


"Sell Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - commentary - research) and buy Walgreen's (WAG:NYSE - commentary - research)."


"Get out of DuPont (DD:NYSE - commentary - research) and into Bristol-Myers (BMY:NYSE - commentary - research)."


"Bottom line -- people will sell tomorrow," Cramer predicted. "I need you to use the weakness that comes across the board and load 'em up if they're not sensitive to the economy or are in tech."

Cramer reiterated his bullish call on tech, calling it a "six-month call" vs. a daily call. "The market wants you in Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research), which sells at 19 times earnings," he said. "If it does go down, it's a gift."
Later in the show, he observed relative and absolute strength Thursday in tech names such as Microsoft, Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - commentary - research), and Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research). The group was "the rock of Gibraltar today ... that's a sign the buyers will come back to the Nasdaq first" after the oil-related selloff ends.

In response to a caller's question about how to profit from $60 oil, Cramer recommended ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE - commentary - research), Encana (ECA:NYSE - commentary - research) and oil service companies Halliburton, Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE - commentary - research), Baker Hughes (BHI:NYSE - commentary - research) and Smith International (SII:NYSE - commentary - research). However, he later in the show recommended selling Chevron (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research), fearing it'll have to "pay up" for Unocal (UCL:NYSE - commentary - research).





In the "lighting round," Cramer was upbeat about WellPoint (WLP:NYSE - commentary - research), Quicksilver Resources (KWK:NYSE - commentary - research), General Dynamics (GD:NYSE - commentary - research), El Paso (EP:NYSE - commentary - research), Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Cimarex Energy (XEC:NYSE - commentary - research) and Disney (DIS:NYSE - commentary - research).

The television host recommended selling Unova (UNA:NYSE - commentary - research), Southern Peru Copper (PCU:NYSE - commentary - research), IBM (IBM:NYSE - commentary - research), Ameritrade (AMTD:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Callaway Golf (ELY:NYSE - commentary - research), Goodyear Tire (GT:NYSE - commentary - research), Applied Digital Solutions (ADSX:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Harris & Harris (TINY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), International Securities Exchange (ISE:NYSE - c

[kittydashwood]

Tightening stops with a view to moving to 75% cash.

Right hand shoulder formed will we see more pressure on the 10000 if this pattern is confirmed.

Good luck with your investments everyone this will be my last post of the year.

See you in the 06

PS
Hey Lawso looks like CAV have finally bucked that downtrend? :)

[Halebop]

Last post Kitty? Ahh too bad. I liked reading your US trades. Good luck for the year. Cramer certainly seemed "defensive" in the previous post.

[kittydashwood]

Happy to report I am still holding TIDE for a loss although GNA has turned about and looks to be mustering momentum for a push towards 6$.

Happily stopped out of IIF, FORD and ENG for 50% + profits. Gotta love the hammer, confirmed it has given me great positions. Buys confirmed this week for
ADM AOB ONNN IO GSX


STJ looks cheap after being tarred by the Merck brush, if only they paid a dividend. Currently researching CRUS KMI PKD and TAXI

[Halebop]

Back again Kitty? That was a quick year! I like reading your posts because I don't follow the US market much. Interesting to look up a few strange (to me) stock codes now and then.

I'm mostly in cash again. Pre Tax up about 25% so far this financial year (from April) and keeping my powder dry. I seem to be missing the speculative boom in Ozzie mining stocks but some of that uranium stuff is out of wack with reality.

[kittydashwood]

Yes I intended to stay stateside till next year but plans are made to be changed.
The only mining stocks I hold from OZ are IGO and GRD.
I feel the uranium bonanza is a little wild west at the moment and it will only take a small shift perception for Canberra to freeze the trade with China. Oz have managed to position themselves nicely slap bang in the center of the next world trade war... vassals of Washington but cosy with the Chinese.
I went mainly cash last month but the retesting of the supports in the US markets got me back in. Pre tax since April I'm about 19% up. Still very keen on South America, particulary Chile.
Remember SAN and of course CH (the closed end specialist country fund) still holding both, the Chilean economy is steaming and the government is stable. Feels like NZ around 2000 so I'm picking five more good years for Chile unless the commodity prices fall.

From the Santaigo Times
EXPORTS SPUR 6.3 PERCENT GROWTH IN FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2005
(August 24, 2005) Chile’s economy grew at a 6.3 percent clip the first six months of the year, spurred by strong exports led by the trade, industrial and construction sectors, according to data released Tuesday by the Central Bank.
:)

[kittydashwood]

Five months left till Greenspan retires, and Washington has started to cast about for a replacement to the gammiest central banker in the western world.

At the conference, "The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future," underscores the challenge the White House faces as it searches for a successor to a Fed chairman who presided over a decline in the U.S. inflation rate and unemployment and successfully navigated several financial crises. While much of the economy's impressive performance is due to factors beyond Mr. Greenspan's control, his decisions have so often proved correct that his stature might be without equal in recent economic-policy history. That leaves big shoes to fill ... Mr. Greenspan has often reached outside economics to hone his insights, at times drawing on history, physics, Mozart and even Sherlock Holmes creator Arthur Conan Doyle for inspiration."
---(The Wall Street Journal - 8/26/05)

Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan pulled no punches when he spoke to the Jackson Hole Fed policy conference on the topic of the housing boom. "History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums," he warned. Values are not guaranteed to rest at current levels, and homebuyers might face disappointment. "What they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear," Greenspan said. Positive equity is "too often viewed by market participants as structural and permanent."


Schaeffer says.
" There are those who say Alan Greenspan exacerbated a major recession in the mid-1970s when as Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors he devised the laughable "Whip Inflation Now (WIN)" program that focused on fighting inflation just as the nation was about to enter a ruinous recession. There are those who say Greenspan was instrumental in bringing about the October 1987 stock market crash by raising interest rates the month before (which caused the long bond to reach double-digit levels) and by threatening further rate hikes in the weeks ahead of the crash. There are those who say Greenspan has created bubbles in real estate, in consumer, corporate and emerging market debt and in derivatives through the ultra-low interest rates he fostered to avoid the consequences of the stock market bubble. And there are those who say Greenspan's "conundrum" - the refusal of long rates to rise despite his aggressive increases in short rates - is an indication of a serious economic slowdown on the horizon. "

7% CASH
7% TERM
15% NZX
4% ASX
15% SOUTH AMERICAN EQUITIES
25% US EQUITIES
2% SILVER
25% WORLD EQUITIES

[kittydashwood]

No derivatives, puts, calls, options allowed by my trust structure.

[kittydashwood]

"We're a bred-in-the-bone fundamentalist, addicted to P/Es, cash flow, book value, tangible prospects and the rest of Ben Graham's kit and caboodle, but we think technical analysis is another arrow in the investment quiver, so why not use it? As we said, its popularity in Wall Street has been ebbing relentlessly. Technical analysis has never been a big profit generator, the way, for example, investment banking has, so it's a natural target for cost cutting, and firms have been whacking away at the shrinking cadre of technical analysts on their premises. Earlier this year, Smith Barney took the ax to Louise Yamada, who had labored for it some 24 years and gained considerable and well-deserved recognition in the Street. While it was at it, Smith Barney decided to dismantle the entire tech department. And just last week, Ralph Acampora was given the sack by Prudential, which, a la Smith Barney, also decided to go whole hog and give the old heave-ho to what was left of its technical-analysis unit ... Something of a puzzle is the paradox of technical analysis steadily losing its appeal to Wall Street, even while entrusting investing decisions to black boxes, the epitome of investment voodoo (think Long-Term Capital Management), has gained enormously in attraction. After some pondering, we decided both trends were rooted in the loss of allure of what's known as market timing: buying and selling stocks when a significant change in market direction seems in the offing. And technical analysis is especially good at spotting intimations of such changes. In turn, the fall from favor of market timing, we suspect, has a lot to do with a surprising imperviousness to risk still so rife among investors who, in large numbers, remain wedded to the notion that stocks always go up, and when they don't, it's merely a temporary interruption of a preordained trend, and a great buying opportunity. That kind of attitude, alas, just begs for disenchantment."
----(Barron's - Alan Abelson - 10/10/05)

[Halebop]

Interesting article. The conspiracy theorist in me almost smells smoke...

[Halebop]

I'm all in cash again, near 100% $A. Returns in the last financial year were almost 35% net of tax, 100% from trading and interest.

There is still plenty of boomer money floating around. I think markets can support at least one more major secular push like the last 3 years but they probably need a breather first. Certainly seems to be a lot of fatigue showing in employment numbers, retail sales, manufacturing and some hawkish responses from reserve bankers. We need a quiet 12 months or a decent correction to push things on again (prefer correction please Investment gods!)

[kittydashwood]

Slow move to cash since the begining of APRIL.
Now 75% cash. 19% after tax and brokerage.
Sold 100% tech and material sector holdings.
Still holding some media (DISCA, PAE, DIS)
some energy (DO PCZ IO, HAWK, BP, PPP & AWE)
Continue to hold Chilean stocks as the rest of South America
descends into turmoil it could prove a safe haven.

QQQQ below 40$ IS BEARISH for the tech sector.
Silver below 12$ Would be very bearish for materials.
Thinking about buying the VIX tracker.

Have changed tatics to trade j hook pattern on morning sell offs of favourite stocks.

[kittydashwood]

ouch daytrading only in this envirnoment, swing trading sucks with this selling.

[Halebop]

Cash sucks too but its easier on the mind.

[kittydashwood]

Yeah dead boring.
Now 7% nz dollars or 4.5% in australian dollars?

[Halebop]

99 point something Australian. So rarely find anything on the NZX worth buying almost given up trying.

[kittydashwood]

Minyanville's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

Rabbit Rabbit

1. We're Worried About Japan

Here's a question: the Bank of Japan was helpless to stop deflation as the economy spiraled downward, so why is it that we have so much faith that the Bank of Japan will be able to manage the "recovery" with hair trigger precision?

* The BOJ pumped a total of 2 trillion yen into the money market on Monday and Tuesday of this week to stop a sharp rise in the uncollateralized overnight call rate.
* The central bank has said it wants to keep the overnight call rate below the 0.1 percent discount rate as it tries to drain excess reserves, all of which is a prelude to eventually raising overnight rates.
* Essentially, the BoJ is looking to mop up the excess liquidity it created through the quantitative easing policy.
* The current account balance, which was used for liquidity targets under the policy, has been cut by nearly a third since reaching a peak of 30-35 trillion yen.
* It now stands at 14 trillion yen, up from 12.4 trillion yen last Friday.
* Meanwhile, this all comes at a cost - a steep cost. Japan's public debt is 150 percent of GDP.
* Some people who supposedly know about such things (Ben Bernanke) have noted that Fed studies of the Japanese experience with deflation show that it was almost entirely unexpected.
* Japan spent more than a decade mired in systemic deflation. As Bernanke noted in his 2002 "helicopter speech" linked above, in addition to deflation Japan's economy also faced barriers to growth (financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors and massive government debt) that are still existent today.
* Of course, Bernanke is a believer in the tools of his trade, naturally, so his view is that political constraints more than central bank policy options caused the deflation to linger for so long.
* Either way, the economic recovery in Japan, which is linked to liquidity flowing to India, China and even the U.S., seems to us to be considered something of a foregone conclusion by market participants while the actions of the BoJ suggest that conclusion is quite premature.



2. Californians Worried About a Housing Bubble

If you live in California, and there's a good chance you do since it is a big, fun state with the largest population in the country, then you are worried about a "housing bubble" ... at least according to Google "Trends."

* Google Trends is a beta version of a service that tracks broad search trends and patterns.
* If you type in "housing bubble" for example, as I did, then you can see a chart that shows the search volume as well as the cities from which those searches originated.
* The chart below shows a definite spike in the search for "housing bubble" since April.
* Also, note that the top cities searching for the phrase "housing bubble" are all in California.
* To be frank, we believe Google Trends is an amazing tool with many applications for financial markets, but we have no idea what those applications are.

3. Ford Worried About Selling Cars

Ford, worried about selling cars, beats consumers to the punch and decides to just give them away.

*
Ford just can't give cars away.
*
No, wait, looks like they can... also gas!
* Ford announced that it is going head-to-head with GM's risky gas derivatives scheme by slashing interest rates on nearly all of its 2006 models AND giving away a prepaid debit card worth up to $1,000 in gas.
* Meanwhile, according to the Associated Press, Expedition sales fell 24% in the first four months of this year compared with the same period in 2005, while Explorer sales were down 30%.
* Both Ford and GM have in recent years earned their largest "profits" from sales of SUVs.

4. OPEC Worried About Spending All That Depreciating Money!

OPEC ministers say they're not concerned that high oil prices pose a risk to the global economy, but they are worried about spending their i

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Yeah dead boring.
Now 7% nz dollars or 4.5% in australian dollars?



So you would agree with this jokers views .... wait until October


http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au/egoli/egoliTheMugPunterPage.asp?PageID={0885BE52-4CFA-4C98-B891-449EBC217115}

[Halebop]

I agree with the "Sell in May and Go away" maxim, although I'd do it a bit sooner than May. In Australia at least the financial year end has a big influence on tax loss candidates and in a generally falling market I think even winners can cop it as investors use other losses as an immediate tax offset.

Not sure about his prognosis about October being a down month. Despite some famous corrections occuring in October can remember seeing data that showed October rose more often than fell (but that might have been NYSE data - can't really remember).

The Christmas seasonal thing is almost counter intuitive because I'd expect large numbers of buyers and sellers to be absent from the market. Put it down to:

Retail / Distribution sectors confirm trade for their biggest season of the year AND they themselves have money to burn at this time

Many seasonal non retail businesses get over the worst of their cash flow humps by October so owners have money to spare for investing

...and maybe even return from holiday mood euphoria before the credit card bills arrive.

[kittydashwood]

Where I Stand: Six Major Themes
Bernie Schaeffer
6/8/2006 2:43 PM ET
Discussion Board Discuss Commentary Email to a Friend Print This Page RSS Feed Add RSS feed


In light of the market turmoil of late, set forth below are six major themes to help put my current views in perspective.

1. The small-caps will resume their leadership on rallies. Maintain your emphasis on the small and mid-caps and also maintain an aggressive cash reserve of 25-50 percent.
2. Don't fall into the large-cap trap looking for "safety." If this market is headed for bear territory, these names will take it on the chin as well, and they will continue to disappoint on the upside.
3. Large-cap technology remains the most dangerous sector. The Nasdaq could easily shed another 10 percent on further market weakness. Don't be fooled by possible dead-cat bounces in moribund names such as Microsoft ( MSFT: View sentiment for MSFTsentiment, chart, options) and Cisco (CSCO: View sentiment for CSCOsentiment, chart, options) .
4. Bearish sentiment on the financial sector is extreme, especially in the context of the relatively strong price action in such sub-sectors as the brokers and the exchanges.
5. As I stated in my June market commentary: "The award for 'most shell shocked' from this pullback has got to go to those who invested in the precious metals and the precious metals shares. They thought they were buying an "uncorrelated" asset class that could benefit from market turmoil, and instead they found themselves in a trade that moved in lock step with the India stock market. The potential for further disillusionment keeps me wary of gold for the shorter term, though I like the longer-term case."
6. I see the potential risks in the emerging markets as too high relative to the potential rewards.



Bernie Schaeffer

[kittydashwood]

The Saudi Arabian government has warned that world oil prices could triple if the standoff between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program escalates into a full-fledged war. "The idea of somebody firing a missile at an installation somewhere will shoot up the price of oil astronomically," Prince Turki told a conference hosted by the United States Energy Association, according to the BBC. At risk is the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the oil in the Middle East is shipped. The International Energy Agency says as many as 17 million barrels of oil a day are transported through the strait.

* Iran is the Opec cartel's number two oil producer.

* Meanwhile, Iran says it will reply to the international package of proposals seeking a compromise on its program by August 22, could be a hairy old autumn.

I have been having lovely transmissions from my favourite of the nine brides of profit, the point & figure charting technique. She sure does strip away the market noise. Get to know her I'm not greedy.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=2392

[kittydashwood]

(From Minyanville)Canary in the Coal Mine

Turkey's central bank raised key interest rates by 225 basis points on Sunday and said it would begin lira purchase auctions to try and halt the currency's slide. Why do we care?

* Turkey's Monetary Policy Council hiked the overnight borrowing rate to 17.25 percent and the lending rate to 20.25 percent overnight on Sunday.
* "In order to correct medium-term inflation expectations the monetary policy committee decided to evaluate its key interest rates and carry out another strong monetary tightening," the central bank said, according to Reuters.
* The Turkish lira has fallen 23% against the dollar since the end of April.
* Bond yields have risen by 300 basis points since the beginning of the year and equities have fallen.
* Turkey's CPI rose to nearly 10 percent in May.
* The bank began lira purchase auctions, called "depo" auctions, in order to drain liquidity from the market and reiterated it would engage in direct forex market intervention if deemed necessary.
* So, why do we care? It's the repricing of risk... worldwide. To give credit where credit is due (hahaha, an inside central banker joke!)
* "The macro-market trend has now reversed, towards risk being re-priced as opposed to the environment of DE-PRICING risk that has been so dominant in the era of monetary reflation," Professor Weldon noted.
* With the FOMC set to report their expected 25 basis point rate hike on June 29, most will direct their tunnel vision toward US markets. What we will be closely watching this week however, per Professor Weldon's advice, is the Brazilian Real, the MSCI Emerging Market Index and the CRB Commodity Index; our canary in the coal mine.
* The effects of global shrinking liquidity and subsequent risk aversion will manifest in the riskiest of markets first.

[kittydashwood]

On June 15, the S&P500 surged more than 2% (the biggest one day gain in nearly 3 years). Since then, the index has made highs below the high of that day (1258.64) and lows above the low of that day (1230.01). That’s 6 consecutive daily bars inside the large range day. This is the first time we’ve seen this type of consolidation in more than 10 years and just the 6th time in the last 30 years.

This is another one of those patterns that gives us no help directionally – but we should get some range expansion this week.

[kittydashwood]

From
http://www.gurufocus.com

As of July 04, 2006 GURU portfolio is 108.36 (+0%)
Performance Inception January 03, 2006

Portfolio 99.44 108.36 +8.97%
S&P500 1268.8 1280.19 +0.9%


This is the complete portfolio of the portfolio:
(Current Value: $108362. Invested: $100,000 on January 03, 2006)

Symbol Company # of Shares Bought on Share Cost Current Price Change Value ($)
CASH Cash 406.32 12/31/1969 1 1 0 406.32
AIG American International Group 57.65 01/03/2006 $69.39 59.57 -14.15% 3,434
AMT American Tower Corp. 142.15 01/03/2006 $28.14 32.31 +14.82% 4,593
AXP American Express Co. 77.18 01/03/2006 $51.83 53.66 +3.53% 4,141
BRK-A BerkshireHathaway Inc. CL A 0.04 01/03/2006 $89690 91600 +2.13% 3,664
BRK-B BerkshireHathaway Inc. CL B 1.35 01/03/2006 $2967 3050 +2.8% 4,118
BUD Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. 92.23 01/03/2006 $43.37 45.56 +5.05% 4,202
CFC Countrywide Financial Corp. 113.35 01/03/2006 $35.29 38.58 +9.32% 4,373
CMCSK Comcast CL A SPCL 154.08 01/03/2006 $25.96 32.72 +26.04% 5,041
COP ConocoPhillips 67.47 01/03/2006 $59.29 66.82 +12.7% 4,508
DISH EchoStar Communications Corp. 139.76 01/03/2006 $28.62 31.06 +8.53% 4,341
EMN Eastman Chemical Co. 77.85 01/03/2006 $51.38 54.46 +5.99% 4,240
FCE-A Forest City Enterprises Inc. CL A 105.51 01/03/2006 $37.91 50.41 +32.97% 5,319
FRE Freddie Mac 62.25 01/03/2006 $64.26 57.5 -10.52% 3,579
KO Coca-Cola Co. 98.72 01/03/2006 $40.52 43.37 +7.03% 4,281
LH Laboratory Corp. of America Ho 73.07 01/03/2006 $54.74 62.19 +13.61% 4,544
NWS-A News Corp. CL A 258.9 01/03/2006 $15.45 19.25 +24.6% 4,984
PFE Pfizer Inc. 166.04 01/03/2006 $24.09 23.58 -2.12% 3,915
PGR Progressive Corp. 138.07 01/03/2006 $28.97 25.75 -11.11% 3,555
S Sprint Nextel Corp. 190.02 01/03/2006 $21.05 20.04 -4.8% 3,808
SHLD Sears 34.48 01/03/2006 $116.01 156.86 +35.21% 5,409
TYC Tyco International Ltd. 134.95 01/03/2006 $29.64 27.61 -6.85% 3,726
WFC Wells Fargo & Co. 64.45 01/03/2006 $62.06 67.44 +8.67% 4,347
WM Washington Mutual Inc. 91.18 01/03/2006 $43.87 46.29 +5.52% 4,221
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 86.98 01/03/2006 $45.99 47.57 +3.44% 4,138
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd. 74.28 01/03/2006 $53.85 73.7 +36.86% 5,474
Total Market Value: $108,362; Cost: $100,000; Change: 8.97%