STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner69]

Hey BP - I drew some lines with my electronic crayons on the STU chart as below

Google says it is a Symmetrical Triangle and the price has 'broken down' through the triangle

Explanation I read ws a bit hard to follow but it seems to say that traders would be looking a new low of 75 cents (price went up from about 100 to 150 or 50 cents and could fall by 50 cents when it broke down at say 125)

But heck what do I know about real TA .... doesn't look pretty though

BP - from 2 months ago.need an update on this chart …….reckon one guru whose ta target would be 75 or Buklowski guy who said target around 106

[nztx]

BP - from 2 months ago.need an update on this chart …….reckon one guru whose ta target would be 75 or Buklowski guy who said target around 106


Didn't someone want some well balanced Bad Charts ? :)

[Entrep]

Good chart. Price action certainly going against the sentiment of some well regarded posters here and the other forum. Hmmm

[BlackPeter]

BP - from 2 months ago.need an update on this chart …….reckon one guru whose ta target would be 75 or Buklowski guy who said target around 106

Nice chart ... though I think the guy was called "Bulkowski" - wasn't he?

I am sure we can use the chart afterwards as an outstanding example. We will still find out though, whether we can use it for a chart which worked or a chart which didn't :), but hey - this happens to any chart.

I think "working" in TA typically means a 60% chance ... and if you have only one chart, there is no way of knowing in real time whether it is the 40% or the 60% which will play out.

Personally I'd be surprised if a chart could predict the next financials in such a chaotic system ... but admittedly - I can't neither.

[Baa_Baa]

Nice chart ... though I think the guy was called "Bulkowski" - wasn't he?

I am sure we can use the chart afterwards as an outstanding example. We will still find out though, whether we can use it for a chart which worked or a chart which didn't :), but hey - this happens to any chart.

I think "working" in TA typically means a 60% chance ... and if you have only one chart, there is no way of knowing in real time whether it is the 40% or the 60% which will play out.

Personally I'd be surprised if a chart could predict the next financials in such a chaotic system ... but admittedly - I can't neither.

I posted a link to Bulkowski for that chart pattern which included the % chance of happening and the target levels. Bulkowski is the bible of TA (imo), and being a good trader he would no doubt not place an order on one of the possible outcomes, he would place orders on both outcomes and using limits/stops, let the losing trade fail in favour of the winning trade.

[winner69]

I posted a link to Bulkowski for that chart pattern which included the % chance of happening and the target levels. Bulkowski is the bible of TA (imo), and being a good trader he would no doubt not place an order on one of the possible outcomes, he would place orders on both outcomes and using limits/stops, let the losing trade fail in favour of the winning trade.

Now price has fallen close to 105 is a rise from here ‘lilely’

[Baa_Baa]

Now price has fallen close to 105 is a rise from here ‘lilely’

What percentage probability do you consider "lilely"? Maybe consult with Bulkowski? it looks like a base might be forming on horizontal support (weekly chart) and oversold indicators. That said, I wouldn't go long it with the 61.8% fib just a bit below at $0.94 and only one week basing.

[SailorRob]

Presumably this discussion is parody.

[SailorRob]

Crikey, just had a look at my old mate STU. Didn't realise how well they have been doing.

Perhaps a beneficiary of the 'boom' but you could assume going back to their long term average plod along and you'd do bloody well still.

Might have to have a closer look.

Apply a few bowelinksey lines on top and can't go wrong

[Baa_Baa]

Presumably this discussion is parody.

Not really


Crikey, just had a look at my old mate STU. Didn't realise how well they have been doing.

Perhaps a beneficiary of the 'boom' but you could assume going back to their long term average plod along and you'd do bloody well still.

Might have to have a closer look.

Apply a few bowelinksey lines on top and can't go wrong

I can understand your cynicism, not being a TA, but oddly even a value investor can benefit from anything that helps them interpret when a stock is not only underpriced, but that the price has reached its low point, or high point for that matter.

We're talking price, not value. Even you agree that the lower the price for the value, the better. Wouldn't it be good if you could identify with some reasonable probability, that the value you want to buy, or sell, is priced attractively? This is demarcating the value analysis of the company, from the sentiment of the market.

Some people say, well in fact it is common myth, that timing the market is not possible. I say bunkum to that. Picking the stock to buy or sell is one thing, but timing the buy or sell is another.

Use all the tools that are available, it doesn't take a lot of effort to learn about the tools that inform about market sentiment. In fact it's a lot easier than learning the skills about whether a company is a good investment fundamental investment or not.

And, it only needs one screen. ;)

[SailorRob]

Not really



I can understand your cynicism, not being a TA, but oddly even a value investor can benefit from anything that helps them interpret when a stock is not only underpriced, but that the price has reached its low point, or high point for that matter.

We're talking price, not value. Even you agree that the lower the price for the value, the better. Wouldn't it be good if you could identify with some reasonable probability, that the value you want to buy, or sell, is priced attractively? This is demarcating the value analysis of the company, from the sentiment of the market.

Some people say, well in fact it is common myth, that timing the market is not possible. I say bunkum to that. Picking the stock to buy or sell is one thing, but timing the buy or sell is another.

Use all the tools that are available, it doesn't take a lot of effort to learn about the tools that inform about market sentiment. In fact it's a lot easier than learning the skills about whether a company is a good investment fundamental investment or not.

And, it only needs one screen. ;)


Well I take my hat of to you, you will be phenomenally rich and have easily destroyed the market over a long period of time and must get sick of not only friends and family throwing their money at you but the general public as well not to mention their undergruts too. Along with Bowelski and the other TA legends who have market beating records.

Anyway, that aside... Bloody hell... STU... you little beauty. I have not been watching. Just about trading for net current assets.

Need to do some work but looks bloody good here. What do you think?

Once the most predicted recession in all of human history shows up maybe things change for the business. But still... Why was cashflow from Ops 4 x earnings in the last half?

[SailorRob]

Just use your Bowleski TA to buy and sell the index ETF at appropriate times, even if it gives you the slightest edge possible.

Then you can beat the market

Then you can challenge me to a bet for 100k to charity that you can use TA to beat the index ETF over the next few years.

Then a charity gets a lot of money.

[Baa_Baa]

Well I take my hat of to you, you will be phenomenally rich and have easily destroyed the market over a long period of time and must get sick of not only friends and family throwing their money at you but the general public as well not to mention their undergruts too. Along with Bowelski and the other TA legends who have market beating records.

Anyway, that aside... Bloody hell... STU... you little beauty. I have not been watching. Just about trading for net current assets.

Need to do some work but looks bloody good here. What do you think?

Once the most predicted recession in all of human history shows up maybe things change for the business. But still... Why was cashflow from Ops 4 x earnings in the last half?

We can talk again, tomorrow maybe when you haven't got a few under your belt. Good night SR.

[SailorRob]

We can talk again, tomorrow maybe when you haven't got a few under your belt. Good night SR.


I virtually never drink, the summer rum destruction was due to having an alcoholic mate staying with us for a Month who bought into OXY and ARLP bigly at the bottom and turned 400k into damn near 2 million in 18 Months and was rather grateful.

I'd be way below NZ average, maybe a few rums once every 3 weeks to a Month.

You can be assured that come the morning I will still call out bull*&(& and challenge all comers to large bets with proceeds to charity and you can be assured that none of the TA geniuses will take me up.

You cannot argue that if your methods work then you can use them, even occasionally, to trade around a market ETF and thus better the returns provided by being permanently 100% long the ETF.

Therefore beating the ETF.

But you can't...

No offense or disrespect meant, I have a lot of time for BaaBaa but facts are facts and if they are not then a charity is gonna be happy.

[ValueNZ]

The theory behind TA suggests there is some sort of recognisable pattern that you can take advantage of in order to make excess returns. The problem I see with that is if there were a recognisable pattern behind price movements, computers would be able to place trades as soon as the pattern emerges thus eliminating those excess returns. Retail traders would not have access to these algorithms, nor would they have the processing power, nor the ability to place the trades as quickly as firms with these computers.

[SailorRob]

The theory behind TA suggests there is some sort of recognisable pattern that you can take advantage of in order to make excess returns. The problem I see with that is if there were a recognisable pattern behind price movements, computers would be able to place trades as soon as the pattern emerges thus eliminating those excess returns. Retail traders would not have access to these algorithms, nor would they have the processing power, nor the ability to place the trades as quickly as firms with these computers.

Exactly right, this is one of many reasons that it's total BS.

I read at least 100 pages a day broadly around investing with a focus on studying those who have long term outperformance records. I virtually never hear of any TA woo woo BS and never in my life have heard of Bowelski. TA doesn't exist in the real world of investing.

Nursing massive hangover this morning and having to deal with the hundreds of private messages from TA gurus keen to take the Sailor up on his bet. But in between I have been studying STU. including studying their results through GFC.

[winner69]

Exactly right, this is one of many reasons that it's total BS.

I read at least 100 pages a day broadly around investing with a focus on studying those who have long term outperformance records. I virtually never hear of any TA woo woo BS and never in my life have heard of Bowelski. TA doesn't exist in the real world of investing.

Nursing massive hangover this morning and having to deal with the hundreds of private messages from TA gurus keen to take the Sailor up on his bet. But in between I have been studying STU. including studying their results through GFC.

Studying STU …..even through the GFC period ….you won’t be disappointed

[SailorRob]

Studying STU …..even through the GFC period ….you won’t be disappointed

Correct

I've already studied the business from pre GFC through 2019 for my previous purchase which began pre Covid at around 80c and loaded up at 54 when she was Net Net by some margin. Now just need to go over last few years.

2020 losses look mostly nonsense to me but will look closer.

Not a great business but a true journeyman that if purchased at the right price will offer a large margin of safety and a high degree of certainty.

[BlackPeter]

...

And, it only needs one screen. ;)

That's mean, but hey - sometimes the truth does hurt :) ;

On the other hand - one screen is quite sufficient to do FA as well, actually, I am wondering whether a Warren Buffett would need any screen to do his analysis.

[SailorRob]

That's mean, but hey - sometimes the truth does hurt :) ;

On the other hand - one screen is quite sufficient to do FA as well, actually, I am wondering whether a Warren Buffett would need any screen to do his analysis.


No, of course not.

Just needs 10k's and rest in head.

[Fortunecookie]

Chris Hopkins+ sausage rolls = not a good sign for STU

[BlackPeter]

Chris Hopkins+ sausage rolls = not a good sign for STU

You certainly lost me ... Isn't that the Kiwi dream? A boy from the Hutt eating all the sausage rolls he can get, supplied by the (then future and now present) king - and afterwards fixing the world using No 8 wire, as boys from the Hutt do?

Remember - STU is supplying the wire :t_up:

[Fortunecookie]

You certainly lost me ... Isn't that the Kiwi dream? A boy from the Hutt eating all the sausage rolls he can get, supplied by the (then future and now present) king - and afterwards fixing the world using No 8 wire, as boys from the Hutt do?

Remember - STU is supplying the wire :t_up:

You cant take the hutt out of Hipkins. He looks to be a grounded individual. But he seems to the only shining light in this govt(note I'm not a labour supporter).

So this is an election year. Typically it is a lolly scramble to attract the voters. This election is different. The labour government has been excused of reckless spending and we are still faced with inflationary challenges. Since his appointment he has been presenting a image of fiscal conservatism i.e bread and butter, sausage rolls, favourite pie etc. So it's mentally preparing the public there will be alot fiscal constraints when budget time arrives.

Take into account with the cyclical movement down for residential and commercial building. The elections is perhaps the last avenue for any injection in activity that may benefit STU. Don't read the tea leaves...read the sausage rolls haha.

[850man]

You cant take the hutt out of Hipkins. He looks to be a grounded individual. But he seems to the only shining light in this govt(note I'm not a labour supporter).



I remember many years ago a friend of mine had a terribly rusty car, it was dangerously rotten. He filled all the holes with paper mache, gave it a beautiful paint job. It looked fantastic and he sold it for a great price. The new owner was absolutely livid when he drove it the first time in the rain and all of that gloss fell off. That's Labour with Hipkins out front.

[BlackPeter]

I remember many years ago a friend of mine had a terribly rusty car, it was dangerously rotten. He filled all the holes with paper mache, gave it a beautiful paint job. It looked fantastic and he sold it for a great price. The new owner was absolutely livid when he drove it the first time in the rain and all of that gloss fell off. That's Labour with Hipkins out front.

You are saying you are friend with a fraudster? That's sad ...

[percy]

I remember many years ago a friend of mine had a terribly rusty car, it was dangerously rotten. He filled all the holes with paper mache, gave it a beautiful paint job. It looked fantastic and he sold it for a great price. The new owner was absolutely livid when he drove it the first time in the rain and all of that gloss fell off. That's Labour with Hipkins out front.

Could we please keep politics out of threads..
Ruins conversation.
I note there is an Elections thread.

[Balance]

Should be an earnings update with the webinar on Wednesday.

A downgrade should see the sp down below 90c as it means the STU recovery story is over.

[SailorRob]

Should be an earnings update with the webinar on Wednesday.

A downgrade should see the sp down below 90c as it means the STU recovery story is over.


Let us hope.

[Balance]

Now price has fallen close to 105 is a rise from here ‘lilely’

Reminder that STU Mark's webinar is on tomorrow at 11 am.

Most likely to be an earnings update released before the presentation so going to be an anxious time for W69 and bull... who I suspect have bought the stock.

I expect STU to announce a profit downgrade due to its high inventory carry as international steel prices are back to where they were in 2017.

Ouch!

Below 90c, here we come?

[Poet]

Reminder that STU Mark's webinar is on tomorrow at 11 am.

Most likely to be an earnings update released before the presentation so going to be an anxious time for W69 and bull... who I suspect have bought the stock.

I expect STU to announce a profit downgrade due to its high inventory carry as international steel prices are back to where they were in 2017.

Ouch!

Below 90c, here we come?

Doesn't seem likely that he will be talking about inventory losses at the midpoint of a reporting cycle, all sorts of factors could change between now and balance date which would make any valuation today obsolete by balance date 30 June.
And in any case, STU doesn't report inventory value based on replacment cost - they report inventory at the lower of purchase cost (plus shipping cost) or expected realisable sale price (less selling costs)

[Balance]

Doesn't seem likely that he will be talking about inventory losses at the midpoint of a reporting cycle, all sorts of factors could change between now and balance date which would make any valuation today obsolete by balance date 30 June.
And in any case, STU doesn't report inventory value based on replacment cost - they report inventory at the lower of purchase cost (plus shipping cost) or expected realisable sale price (less selling costs)

Thanks Poet - makes sense but I just wonder :

With steel prices collapsing to 2017 levels, STU must be sitting on very expensive stock which are now above selling & market price?

[winner69]

Doesn't seem likely that he will be talking about inventory losses at the midpoint of a reporting cycle, all sorts of factors could change between now and balance date which would make any valuation today obsolete by balance date 30 June.
And in any case, STU doesn't report inventory value based on replacment cost - they report inventory at the lower of purchase cost (plus shipping cost) or expected realisable sale price (less selling costs)


And moving average cost basis can cause havoc to valuations

[bull....]

Reminder that STU Mark's webinar is on tomorrow at 11 am.

Most likely to be an earnings update released before the presentation so going to be an anxious time for W69 and bull... who I suspect have bought the stock.

I expect STU to announce a profit downgrade due to its high inventory carry as international steel prices are back to where they were in 2017.

Ouch!

Below 90c, here we come?

yep i own stock as long term hold will buy more in time. will be taken over if price ever went to low

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Poet - makes sense but I just wonder :

With steel prices collapsing to 2017 levels, STU must be sitting on very expensive stock which are now above selling & market price?

I recon you are just stirring in order to annoy people, aren't you?

Or would you want to share where this is coming from? While I have no insights into FBU's storage rooms, I know that some other steel traders in NZ did over the last 6 months a good job to reduce their inventory. Quite easy method ... sell more than you replace.

Why would you think STU didn't do that as well?

[Balance]

I recon you are just stirring in order to annoy people, aren't you?

Or would you want to share where this is coming from? While I have no insights into FBU's storage rooms, I know that some other steel traders in NZ did over the last 6 months a good job to reduce their inventory. Quite easy method ... sell more than you replace.

Why would you think STU didn't do that as well?

Because Mark did not deliver on what he presented at last year's ASM.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/399707/380134.pdf

"We will continue to be responsive to the changing environment and changing sector demands. Our
team has the experience and skills to solve challenges and identify opportunities. Our focus remains
on how we differentiate ourselves to stand out as the preferred supplier of choice.

We expect continued earnings momentum and our goal is to deliver sustainable double-digit Return
on Funds Employed."

There was no inkling that the interim results delivered in Feb this year would be a downgrade.

Remember that downgrades come in threes?

I would be very pleased if Mark & STU prove to be the ones to break that adage.

[BlackPeter]

Because Mark did not deliver on what he presented at last year's ASM.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/399707/380134.pdf

"We will continue to be responsive to the changing environment and changing sector demands. Our
team has the experience and skills to solve challenges and identify opportunities. Our focus remains
on how we differentiate ourselves to stand out as the preferred supplier of choice.

We expect continued earnings momentum and our goal is to deliver sustainable double-digit Return
on Funds Employed."

There was no inkling that the interim results delivered in Feb this year would be a downgrade.

Remember that downgrades come in threes?

I would be very pleased if Mark & STU prove to be the ones to break that adage.

Fair enough ... even if some of the parameters are clearly not under his control.

But yes, lets see how they did at FY time. Maybe we can ask him tomorrow whether they managed to reduce inventory?

[X-men]

Downgrade....

[winner69]

Balance called it correctly …..the recovery is over

Probably worse than many expected

Basically broke even last 4 months

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/411164/394025.pdf

[SailorRob]

78 million operating cash flow in 10 months. Nothing close to this in history.

[percy]

The Bad.
..NPAT well down from $24.1 mil to $12.4 mil
..2nd half volumes expect to be down 10 to15% on 1st half.
The Good.
..Operating Cash Flow an impressive $77.9 mil.
..Inventory well down from $200.9 mil to $152.2 mil
..Net debt heavily reduced from $43.5 mil to a very modest $9.2 mil.
Conculsion.The company's balance sheet is in a very strong position to weather any storm.
I will continue to hold,however I will not be adding to my position.

[Balance]

Balance called it correctly …..the recovery is over

Probably worse than many expected

Basically broke even last 4 months

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/411164/394025.pdf

Must be big relief for you that you heed my warnings and bailed out of your position after you downramped to your buy in level?

[Balance]

The Bad.
..NPAT well down from $24.1 mil to $12.4 mil
..2nd half volumes expect to be down 10 to15% on 1st half.
The Good.
..Operating Cash Flow an impressive $77.9 mil.
..Inventory well down from $200.9 mil to $152.2 mil
..Net debt heavily reduced from $43.5 mil to a very modest $9.2 mil.
Conculsion.The company's balance sheet is in a very strong position to weather any storm.
I will continue to hold,however I will not be adding to my position.

STU & Mark must be reading this forum to include inventory level in the release which they have not done before.

Must say that cash flow generation is excellent and STU is now back to a low debt position.

[SailorRob]

Certainly an exceptional result. Nobody expected them to carry on the Covid high. We just need them back to good bad old ways and we make bank.

78 million!

[winner69]

STU & Mark must be reading this forum to include inventory level in the release which they have not done before.

Must say that cash flow generation is excellent and STU is now back to a low debt position.

well spotted mate

Previous no Cah Flow, Inventory or Debt figues

Suppose the only good thing they.ve done

May as well rave about selling some of their excessive inventory is worth a rave

[ValueNZ]

Does anyone know why they are reporting their 10-month performance rather than 12? Thanks

[Balance]

Does anyone know why they are reporting their 10-month performance rather than 12? Thanks

2 months left in F23.

[Muse]

Does anyone know why they are reporting their 10-month performance rather than 12? Thanks

STU's year end is 30 June....

So given they are presenting at today's NZX virtual conference they are reporting on their year to date figures...

The downgrade in EBIT is what is striking...the brokers never had big hopes or aspirations that the step up in EBIT would be sustainable and STU is one of the few companies where they actually modelled a downturn. That was expected to come in earnest in FY24...looks like its come a year earlier, and deeper, than expected.

[SailorRob]

Can anyone highlight clearly and concisely what the issue is with the update? Or is this from the viewpoint of people who thought the Covid performance was the new normal and bought at higher than current prices?

Surely our assumptions were that they plod along as they have since 2007, I don't see anything that changes this?

[SailorRob]

STU's year end is 30 June....

So given they are presenting at today's NZX virtual conference they are reporting on their year to date figures...

The downgrade in EBIT is what is striking...the brokers never had big hopes or aspirations that the step up in EBIT would be sustainable and STU is one of the few companies where they actually modelled a downturn. That was expected to come in earnest in FY24...looks like its come a year earlier, and deeper, than expected.

You answered my question, thanks.

[BlackPeter]

Balance called it correctly …..the recovery is over

Probably worse than many expected

Basically broke even last 4 months

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/411164/394025.pdf

I guess, as always, there are different angles to that.

Revenue slightly increased (pretty much as indicated by forecasts).

Earnings dropped (as predicted by forecasts, but a bit more - instead of 25%, they are 50% down). Still - they keep making money, which is good - and hey, 9 cents EPS (extrapolated to a full year) per share for a SP of around $1 is not too bad ...

Their inventory dropped by roughly 25%, which is good and different to what balance told us.

Not a stellar result, but given the state of the building industry over the last months, not a catastrophe either.

I guess the big question is - how will building industry go from here? Remember - market is forward looking:

Interest rates seem to be close to peak and government opened the immigration tap again (I know, they didn't wanted to, but they had to). If new houses (and infrastructure - roads, bridges, pipes) are needed, than maybe STU at discount prices is not a bad bet ...

[Rawz]

What is the best best guess of book value does anyone know? ASB says $1.27 as at June 2022

[bull....]

stock price would have assumed a slowdown to date

10 - 15% decline in volumes similar to fbu

im watching how they manage margin pressure going forward

[SailorRob]

What is the best best guess of book value does anyone know? ASB says $1.27 as at June 2022

Trading close to net current assets. Could buy, liquidate current assets, pay all other liabilities get rest close to free. Of course you couldn't buy volume at these prices.

[winner69]

market expected this .... muted reaction

Not even under a buck

[winner69]

Share price could end UP for the day

Talk of cyclone recovery work and cost savings very powerful message


But probably (insofar as share price goes) not as powerful as that double digit dividend yield …NZX says 14.091%

[BlackPeter]

Share price could end UP for the day

Talk of cyclone recovery work and cost savings very powerful message


But probably (insofar as share price goes) not as powerful as that double digit dividend yield …NZX says 14.091%

So - it sounds like you are happy with Marks ravings?

[winner69]

So - it sounds like you are happy with Marks ravings?

He is a good raver eh …punters will love things like getting a decent chunk of the $9 billion to $14.5 billion of cyclone rebuilding work

Punters love talk of billions

[bull....]

He is a good raver eh …punters will love things like getting a decent chunk of the $9 billion to $14.5 billion of cyclone rebuilding work

Punters love talk of billions

price might end positive for the day

[winner69]

price might end positive for the day

Seems to be plenty of punters wanting to buy

Mark said shares undervalued …..that’s a good recommendation

Big cash flows …..generous divie …..and maybe even a share buyback


What else does one need

[bull....]

Seems to be plenty of punters wanting to buy

Mark said shares undervalued …..that’s a good recommendation

Big cash flows …..generous divie …..and maybe even a share buyback


What else does one need

i listened to the webinar , first time listened to one of these shame they dont allow more time for questions to be heard anyway as you say he was not happy about the low share price

[Rawz]

is the dividend sustainable thou?

[Poet]

With SP at $1.00, I'd say a takeover isn't entirely out of the question $300m would buy the whole company. Bluescope the obvious candidate, but Vulcan or Fletchers even

[X-men]

Fbu tried to buy..then walked away. Also NZ commerce commission would not allowed the takeover?

Bluescope already bought in some

[bull....]

is the dividend sustainable thou?

will be less than last yr obviously.

[winner69]

Hope that wasn’t Mark buying 1,471 shares at close for 105 making it look like a good day on the bourse

VWAP was 99.94 cents

Maybe a new uptrend ;)

[nztx]

Hope that wasn’t Mark buying 1,471 shares at close for 105 making it look like a good day on the bourse

VWAP was 99.94 cents

Maybe a new uptrend ;)


how about the counter economic downtrend engulfing everything in it's path including hard working
Kiwi's all across the land in great waves of COL and other inflationary spirals ? :)

[percy]

Interesting Craigs target price is 90 cents,while Jarden's is $1.27.

Disc.I have sold.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting Craigs target price is 90 cents,while Jarden's is $1.27.

Disc.I have sold.

Cheers for the "heads up".

I suppose the difference between these two price targets is related to different working assumptions of how the coming years will unfold. Big recession in the cards or alternatively a soft landing and infrastructure spending on the rise?

Who knows, but historically seen are all price targets just random noise. However - the wide spread shows that it is still possible to make both a good case and a not so good case for STU.

I am in this case an optimist (and holding) :) ;

[nztx]

The Media don't appear to be swallowing Mark's spiel and optimism in their reporting
in current times of strong headwinds and dangerous cross currents


Long gone out of this one -- could become a 60c or 70c job in the turbulent times ahead :)

[RTM]

Encouraging. I have topped up.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/411420/394367.pdf

[winner69]

Encouraging. I have topped up.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/411420/394367.pdf

Yes …Susan sent an email around telling senior people to buy the cheap undervalued shares ……stop share price plunging too far and to display confidence in the future

Mark and one other have followed instruction so far

Always good sign insiders buying.

[Balance]

Thanks again to W69 and nztx for their downramping.

Very very happy.

[SailorRob]

Yes …Susan sent an email around telling senior people to buy the cheap undervalued shares ……stop share price plunging too far and to display confidence in the future

Mark and one other have followed instruction so far

Always good sign insiders buying.

Realised his wife had packed his lunch so used the lunch money to buy a few.

Certainly fair buying around here though.

[jonu]

Yes …Susan sent an email around telling senior people to buy the cheap undervalued shares ……stop share price plunging too far and to display confidence in the future

Mark and one other have followed instruction so far

Always good sign insiders buying.

That's a strange claim to make winner69. Would you like to declare sarcasm or are you privy to information not known to the market?

[winner69]

Not sarcasm but speculation ….but that’s how the the game is often played, esp when CEO publicly says shares undervalued.

[bull....]

price might end positive for the day

good short term bottom ? signal .... nice

[winner69]

Share price going gangbusters today

The insiders buying took quite a large percentage of stock traded the days they were. Wonder which insider buying today.

Balance - At this rate share price back into the 120’s ….that be good. Always good buying around a buck eh.

Mark needs to do more raves …. Part of his job to pump the share price.

[SailorRob]

Share price going gangbusters today

The insiders buying took quite a large percentage of stock traded the days they were. Wonder which insider buying today.

Balance - At this rate share price back into the 120’s ….that be good. Always good buying around a buck eh.

Mark needs to do more raves …. Part of his job to pump the share price.

Why that be good?

[winner69]

Dwelling consents collapsing. Stats NZ say r April numbers '“April 2023 marks the third consecutive month that the number of homes consented has been down by more than 25 percent when compared with the same month of the previous year,”

Jeez down 25% and the non-residential data doesn't look too flash

These numbers must mean something to STU as they put charts of such stuff in their presos

Storm recovery will be some time off .... benefits maybe 18 months away and often it's not incremental as just replaces activity that may have been done anyway

[nztx]

Dwelling consents collapsing. Stats NZ say r April numbers '“April 2023 marks the third consecutive month that the number of homes consented has been down by more than 25 percent when compared with the same month of the previous year,”

Jeez down 25% and the non-residential data doesn't look too flash

These numbers must mean something to STU as they put charts of such stuff in their presos

Storm recovery will be some time off .... benefits maybe 18 months away and often it's not incremental as just replaces activity that may have been done anyway


Does that put a buck going forward back in play ? ;)

[winner69]

Does that put a buck going forward back in play ? ;)

Chart showing signs of being over bought after that run of exuberance after Marks rave

[Balance]

Compare and contrast with MPG.

Enough said.

[BlackPeter]

Dwelling consents collapsing. Stats NZ say r April numbers '“April 2023 marks the third consecutive month that the number of homes consented has been down by more than 25 percent when compared with the same month of the previous year,”

Jeez down 25% and the non-residential data doesn't look too flash

These numbers must mean something to STU as they put charts of such stuff in their presos

Storm recovery will be some time off .... benefits maybe 18 months away and often it's not incremental as just replaces activity that may have been done anyway

"You alright today winner .... seem even more of a sour puss than usual

I'm worried about your welfare - reach out if you need help"

... just kidding, but interesting how fast the sides can swap :) ;

Actually - did you compare the number of building consents to the number of consents we had while our economy used to rock?

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-december-2022/

Even if last months numbers are somewhat down (not yet in the graph above) - they still must be on pretty elevated level (if only 25% down from last years peak). Still pretty impressive - more than just rocking ...

[bull....]

everything lining up nicely for the next cycle

[winner69]

Newsletter …all going well ….good stuff happening ….no worries

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/412895/396307.pdf

[winner69]

Surely STU won’t come out this week and do a Vulcan and say profits not as good as they said they will be.

[winner69]

Could say this is an profit upgrade

Might see share price back to 120/130 eh balance

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/414826/398622.pdf

[Balance]

Could say this is an profit upgrade

Might see share price back to 120/130 eh balance

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/414826/398622.pdf

Vulcan the shiny boys losing their lustre while STU is showing its staying power.

Or just a case of STU managing expectations better?

In any case, definitely good news for STU.

[winner69]

Vulcan the shiny boys losing their lustre while STU is showing its staying power.

Or just a case of STU managing expectations better?

In any case, definitely good news for STU.

Yes, STU managing expectations a lot better

Result won’t look so bad now even though profit way down on last year

Cash in bank so they can keep shareholders happy with a decent divie

[850man]

Upping FY23 guidance https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414826

[bull....]

be good if malpass did a buyback of share's at announcement , taking into account his comments the share's are undervalued

[X-men]

Looking good... again .. bought back my holding yesterday after sold all early of February

[X-men]

I don't think the dividend will be 7.5c like last FY2022.. probably 5c this August?

[RTM]

I don't think the dividend will be 7.5c like last FY2022.. probably 5c this August?

I hope you are right...I am thinking /hoping for something like 4c. And I will be happy with that.
But I have absolutely no idea.
Their recent update was encouraging, especially on the back of Vulcan's.

[X-men]

What I like about STU is...no debts

[winner69]

Last week both STU and VSL issued updated profit guidances.

STU share price went up but VSL share price collapsed

Both were saying F23 profits (STU's EBIT and VSL's NPAT) were going TO BE DOWN ABOUT 33% on F22

All comes down to managing expectations

Shoeshine in NBR said he's heard that Mark Malpass works like a demon to try and lift the company's performance and the esteem of the company in the eyes of shareholders. That's why I mention Mark's regular Raves .....always good stuff.

This compared to the 'culture at Vulcan being more brash.'

Long may Mark keep on Raving

Shows up in share price .....both seeing profits down 33% but STU share price down 12% from 52 weeks ago while VSL down 18% ...and of course STU's is on the rise at the moment

And both see their share prices down about 22% from highs about a year ago …suppose 22% down when profits down 33% not too bad

[Balance]

Last week both STU and VSL issued updated profit guidances.

STU share price went up but VSL share price collapsed

Both were saying F23 profits (STU's EBIT and VSL's NPAT) were going TO BE DOWN ABOUT 33% on F22

All comes down to managing expectations

Shoeshine in NBR said he's heard that Mark Malpass works like a demon to try and lift the company's performance and the esteem of the company in the eyes of shareholders. That's why I mention Mark's regular Raves .....always good stuff.

This compared to the 'culture at Vulcan being more brash.'

Long may Mark keep on Raving

Shows up in share price .....both seeing profits down 33% but STU share price down 12% from 52 weeks ago while VSL down 18% ...and of course STU's is on the rise at the moment

And both see their share prices down about 22% from highs about a year ago …suppose 22% down when profits down 33% not too bad

Also comes down to market/analysts expectations.

In the case of Vulcan, brokers had higher expectations so have been scrambling to downgrade after the company's earnings update.

With STU, brokers' expectations were way down vs that of STU so they are having to upgrade.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STEEL-TUBE-HOLDINGS-LIMIT-6491420/consensus/

[Balance]

Also comes down to market/analysts expectations.

In the case of Vulcan, brokers had higher expectations so have been scrambling to downgrade after the company's earnings update.

With STU, brokers' expectations were way down vs that of STU so they are having to upgrade.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STEEL-TUBE-HOLDINGS-LIMIT-6491420/consensus/

Remember also how STU's management were criticized by some posters here for investing and building up inventories in F22 to buffer against market supply disruptions and to meet demand?

Well, the other very pertinent positive to STU's profit update announcement is this :

"Steel & Tube has ended the financial year with no bank debt and a positive cash balance of $6.5m, representing a ~$50m improvement on FY22 after paying increased dividends and tax. The company has also achieved a significant reduction in its inventory balance."

STU paid an interim dividend of 4cps ($6.67m or 57% of NPAT) and based upon its net debt position of $32.5m as at 31 Dec 2022, the company generated net positive cashflow of $45.67m in H2 2023.


And that's after paying $12.5m of final F22 dividend during the period - so STU generated $68m of positive net cashflow in F23.

Looking forward to a 5c fully imputed final dividend and if the sp stays where it currently, be surprising if a share buyback is not being contemplated.

[Rawz]

thats impressive. What did the inventory balance reduce by and do they say what the steady state of inventory is?

[Balance]

thats impressive. What did the inventory balance reduce by and do they say what the steady state of inventory is?

Not mentioned in this profit update.

STU did not sell any assets unlike previous years so it is clear (as can be seen from the interim results as well) that the positive cashflow came from working capital reduction.

[RTM]

"Businesses and entities with securities over the company include ANZ Bank, Steel &Tube Holdings, Allied Petroleum, BOC, Lion NZ, Fletcher Distribution, H J Asmuss & Co,Hynds Pips Systems, Windcave New Zealand, Māori Investments, Taupō District Council,Tūwharetoa Gondola Partnership, Brittain Wynyard & Co, AFL TelecommunicationsAustralia, The Merchant of Taupō, Active Electrical Supplies, Crown Regional Holdings,Cirtex Industries, Stoney Creek and De Lage Landen."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ruapehu-alpine-lifts-first-liquidators-report-what-happens-next/NAPKLYNHWZBSPG52POQ4LECSMY/

No indication as to the $'s involved. Not ideal tho.

From a slightly different angle, pretty disappointed to see the Government engaged as deeply as it is up there. With the changing climate we are seeing, well forecasted, the PGF etc has spent up large on the new lift and building at the top of it. Its magnificent.
And in a time when they are having to make snow with snowmakers.
Surely the writing was / is clearly on the wall in terms of Ruapehu as a skiing destination ?
Haven't the Government been talking about climate change forever ?

[bull....]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/415245/399103.pdf

nice to see there looking at more expansion opportunities

[winner69]

Not mentioned in this profit update.

STU did not sell any assets unlike previous years so it is clear (as can be seen from the interim results as well) that the positive cashflow came from working capital reduction.

All going well eh Balance

Share price back tp 150 plus sooner than later

See BOP guys got seduced by Marks rave at a NZSA do last night and buying up today

[X-men]

Would be nice to do a bit of share buyback

[X-men]

Been reading latest MPG announcement...wonder STU would issue a wishy-washy outlook?

[Balance]

Been reading latest MPG announcement...wonder STU would issue a wishy-washy outlook?

Companies cannot control the economic environment which is dictated by economic circumstances and government & monetary authorities' policies - what they can control is their operating efficiency, effectiveness and competitiveness in said environment.

That is the message I am reading from STU's recent announcements and presentations :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/415245/399103.pdf

In contrast, MPG seems to struggle irrespective of boom times or bust!

[Fortunecookie]

I thought management said it was undervalued only a couple months ago.

Edit: perhaps they envisage more infrastructure activity going forward.

[winner69]

Companies cannot control the economic environment which is dictated by economic circumstances and government & monetary authorities' policies - what they can control is their operating efficiency, effectiveness and competitiveness in said environment.

That is the message I am reading from STU's recent announcements and presentations :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/415245/399103.pdf

In contrast, MPG seems to struggle irrespective of boom times or bust!

They seem to be on top of things ….good rave by Mark today

Bottom of cycle better times ahead

STU share price over $1.50 early next year …watch this space

[see weed]

Divi last year=13c. Divi this year=8c. Looks like yld drops back to approx 6.4% at todays price of $1.25c. Looks like what people were saying a few months ago...good buying around $1. The yld would be around 8% at a dollar. Even $1.05 would still be good yld, better than the bank.

[Poet]

Divi last year=13c. Divi this year=8c. Looks like yld drops back to approx 6.4% at todays price of $1.25c. Looks like what people were saying a few months ago...good buying around $1. The yld would be around 8% at a dollar. Even $1.05 would still be good yld, better than the bank.

Gross Yield is 8.88% at sp of $1.25
EPS at 10.3 cps represents a gross return of 11.4% at sp of 1.25
Brilliant earnings for bottom of cycle
Positive cash in bank no debt
Seriously undervalued imo

[see weed]

Sorry, I was working out the yield on this years divs which is 2x4c =8c for this year which = approx 6.4% at $1-25c

[bull....]

Sorry, I was working out the yield on this years divs which is 2x4c =8c for this year which = approx 6.4% at $1-25c

8.8% gross div at 8c not to shabby ... anyway good result.

[X-men]

Market is hard to please....heading down $1.20

[ronaldson]

Auckland Branch members of NZ Shareholders Association are taking part in a site visit to Steel and Tube's East Tamaki premises this morning including a tour of Coil and Purlin and also Roofing next door, followed by a Q & A and lunch. This company employs over 800 folk across 27 sites countrywide, supplying a wide range of steel products and solutions, and in August announced the purchase of Kiwi Pipes and Fittings, a specialist provider in fire protection and water reticulation products.

I am not, and never have been, a holder so have booked for the occasion and hope to glean a better understanding as to how it is. These regular company visits are just one feature of NZSA membership, which I commend to readers/posters on this Forum, and have ramped up again post Covid. I have been a member for quite a few years now simply to add my appreciation for the ongoing and valuable work they do to benefit retail shareholders on the NZX and do not begrudge the annual fee for that reason. I also have conferred on NZSA a standing proxy for all the entities I control or influence to vote their holdings, as there is strength in numbers.

So give them a thought.

[bull....]

Auckland Branch members of NZ Shareholders Association are taking part in a site visit to Steel and Tube's East Tamaki premises this morning including a tour of Coil and Purlin and also Roofing next door, followed by a Q & A and lunch. This company employs over 800 folk across 27 sites countrywide, supplying a wide range of steel products and solutions, and in August announced the purchase of Kiwi Pipes and Fittings, a specialist provider in fire protection and water reticulation products.

I am not, and never have been, a holder so have booked for the occasion and hope to glean a better understanding as to how it is. These regular company visits are just one feature of NZSA membership, which I commend to readers/posters on this Forum, and have ramped up again post Covid. I have been a member for quite a few years now simply to add my appreciation for the ongoing and valuable work they do to benefit retail shareholders on the NZX and do not begrudge the annual fee for that reason. I also have conferred on NZSA a standing proxy for all the entities I control or influence to vote their holdings, as there is strength in numbers.

So give them a thought.

how did the visit go , any comments

[winner69]

Vulcan say ebitda for last 4 months down 29% on last year

Lower volume, lower selling prices and higher costs they say

Hope STU not doing as bad

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423145

Steel & Tube Holdings Limited (NZX: STU) advises that it intends to issue 70 free shares to each of its team members, as part of its 70th anniversary celebrations. The formal issue of the shares is planned for early in the new year and will be based on the number of full time and part time employees working for the company (estimated to be approximately 850 people).
CEO of Steel & Tube, Mark Malpass, said: “This recognises the vital contribution that our people make to the success and longevity of the company. We already have a highly engaged workforce and this is another way we can engage with and reward our team members for their efforts. We look forward to having them as owners in our business.”
Steel & Tube is working with Sharesies to facilitate the issue of shares in the new year.

[winner69]

Pretty generous eh Bob

Nothing like employees owning shares in the company

[Rawz]

Waste of time. Should have given them a $100 paknsav voucher

[sb9]

Pretty generous eh Bob

Nothing like employees owning shares in the company

Way too generous imo 😜

[Sideshow Bob]

Pretty generous eh Bob

Nothing like employees owning shares in the company

$72.80 worth of shares each.....

Hope they have existing shares as otherwise more a pain in the a88 than anything and more shareholders with small parcels.

But isn't it the thought that counts?? ;)

[mfd]

Waste of time. Should have given them a $100 paknsav voucher

Give a man a voucher and he'll eat for a day. Give a man 70 STU shares and he can buy a loaf of bread twice a year for the rest of his life

[Rawz]

Give a man a voucher and he'll eat for a day. Give a man 70 STU shares and he can buy a loaf of bread twice a year for the rest of his life
:lol::lol::lol: love it

[Sideshow Bob]

Give a man a voucher and he'll eat for a day. Give a man 70 STU shares and he can buy a loaf of bread twice a year for the rest of his life

Haha - great work!! My tweak.....

Give a man a voucher and he'll eat for a day. Give a man 70 STU shares and he can buy a loaf of budget PNS bread twice a year for the rest of his life

[nztx]

Haha - great work!! My tweak.....

Give a man a voucher and he'll eat for a day. Give a man 70 STU shares and he can buy a loaf of budget PNS bread twice a year for the rest of his life


Hope there isn't a bump in the road that tips the bicycle over along the way on the ride home :)

[bull....]

that was a good update. with all the cash building up they could start a buyback

[winner69]

that was a good update. with all the cash building up they could start a buyback

Yes a very reassuring one…….. clever how they got around in not saying H1 ebit (normalised of course) going to be 50% down on pcp

Will need the cash to pay the next divie in full I reckon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/423213/409249.pdf

[winner69]

Unless things pick up full year npat heading to 15m …or eps of 9cents …haven’t given full year guidance

Hard to maintain last years divie of 8 cents unless they use some of that spare cash

[bull....]

Yes a very reassuring one…….. clever how they got around in not saying H1 ebit (normalised of course) going to be 50% down on pcp

Will need the cash to pay the next divie in full I reckon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/423213/409249.pdf

probably already in the stock price as it was well advised on the 50% decline.

[bull....]

stock price attracting some interest recently........... maybe on upcoming div ?

[winner69]

stock price attracting some interest recently........... maybe on upcoming div ?

Really positive last week or so

Can’t see why …..maybe just punters getting excited and believing in this huge future infrastructure spend talk …which probably won’t happen to the degree the punters think

[bull....]

Really positive last week or so

Can’t see why …..maybe just punters getting excited and believing in this huge future infrastructure spend talk …which probably won’t happen to the degree the punters think

think some of there input costs have improved recently. if so be good for margins looking ahead. im watching these parts in there upcoming result

New growth initiatives account
for 10% of Distribution EBIT and
offer opportunities for growth
and expansion
+ Launch and expansion of
aluminium product range from
March 2023, with demand growing
month on month
+ First full year of enhanced plate
processing service offer, with
EBIT increasing by 70% in a short
period and plans for further
expansion
+ Fasteners NZ (acquired July
2021) continues to outperform,
providing a strong complement to
the Fortress Fasteners brand
+ Kiwi Pipe and Fittings (acquired
August 2022) performing in line
with expectations and geographic
expansion delivering growth

[winner69]

Suppose this is a profit upgrade …or things were not quite as bad as we thought with Normalised EBIT (whatever that is) only down 48% on last year rather than more than 50%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/425573/411891.pdf

[percy]

Suppose this is a profit upgrade …or things were not quite as bad as we thought with Normalised EBIT (whatever that is) only down 48% on last year rather than more than 50%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/425573/411891.pdf

Excellent profit upgrade,and pleasing seeing stock reduced while cash pile increased.

[winner69]

Excellent profit upgrade,and pleasing seeing stock reduced while cash pile increased.

…hey percy …..you forgot to mention the cost savings

[winner69]

Relief all round …share price over $1.20 tomorrow I reckon

[bull....]

very nice update.
big cash pile building and specifically mentioned M&A under consideration

[bull....]

"Most helpfully for the RBNZ, construction sector respondents now expect just 2.3% cost inflation over the next three months, the lowest across the five sectors and a sharp fall from the peak of 7.8% in mid-2022," Zollner said.
Reported wage increases versus a year earlier were flat but are trending lower. Average expected wage settlements over the next 12 months fell slightly but appear to be flattening out.
Zollner said the surge in residential construction intentions over the past year had been "startling", but it "ran out of puff this month".
"It nonetheless suggests that dwelling consents and residential construction are about to find a floor."

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/126142/overall-businesses-expect-worst-past-although-medicine-has-been-bitter-it%E2%80%99s-working

[X-men]

Nice and juicy 4c a share coming up again?

[bull....]

Nice and juicy 4c a share coming up again?

hope so. was saying a while ago inputs cost look to be improving and now rolled coil prices look like they are steadying so hopefully STU will confirm that bottom of cycle reached expectations going forward look better

[nztx]

hope so. was saying a while ago inputs cost look to be improving and now rolled coil prices look like they are steadying so hopefully STU will confirm that bottom of cycle reached expectations going forward look better


5.5c or even 7.0c would be better seeing as they've been clearing the accumulated inventory fast as :)

[X-men]

Mark said potential M&A activities are happening. Would see STU taken or merged by Vulcan?

[Greekwatchdog]

Mark said potential M&A activities are happening. Would see STU taken or merged by Vulcan?

Good luck getting that past the Commerce Commission. I should add that the Board of STU turned down FBU offer of $1.95 couple years back..

[X-men]

Or overseas investment...a lot of them are circling ASX and NZX companies

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426451

Steel & Tube Holdings Limited (NZX: STU) has reported its unaudited results for the six months to 31 December 2023, with Normalised EBIT of $11.3m, above the top end of guidance, a further reduction in inventory and a positive cash position with no bank debt.

$m / 1H24 / 2H23 / 1H23
Revenue / 261.8 / 273.8 / 315.3
EBITDA / 21.2 / 21.4 / 30.5
Normalised EBITDA* / 21.9 / 21.3 / 31.6
EBIT / 10.2 / 10.7 / 20.3
Normalised EBIT* / 11.3 / 10.6 / 21.5
NPAT / 5.3 / 5.2 / 11.8
Net operating cashflow / 38.7 / 57.1 / 41.1
Dividends (cents per share) / 4.0 / 4.0 / 4.0

* Normalised EBITDA and Normalised EBIT have been adjusted to exclude non-trading adjustments. Further details included in appendix to the Results Presentation.

Chief Executive, Mark Malpass, said the result demonstrates Steel & Tube’s resilience and agility through the economic cycle.
“We have continued our focus on ‘controlling the controllables’ while providing high levels of customer service. The $5m cost out programme is progressing well and offsetting inflationary pressures with costs below prior year. Pleasingly, we have seen market share growth in key categories, and we continue to generate strong margins with gross margin $/tonne increasing above prior year. Strategic investments into high value products and services and acquisitions continue to perform strongly.

“With a strong balance sheet and proven dual pathway strategy, Steel & Tube is well positioned to take advantage of increasing activity and demand when the economy recovers. Steel & Tube has significant experience and expertise in many areas identified as priorities by the new Government including transport infrastructure, renewable energy, water and climate resilience. We will continue to focus on both organic and acquisition growth with multiple opportunities currently being assessed.”

1H24 Financial Performance

Subdued volumes were seen across all sectors with economic headwinds continuing the trends seen in 2H23. Volumes were down 5.1% on 2H23, with revenue down a corresponding 4.4% to $261.8m. Gross margin $/tonne continued to improve as a result of pricing disciplines and cost control, increasing to $926 per tonne compared to $850/tonne in the pcp.

Normalised EBIT of $11.3m was an improvement on 2H23 and at the top end of guidance.

The company also achieved a further reduction in inventory down to $128.6m, from $139.2m at 30 June 2023. Steel & Tube ended the half year with no bank debt and a positive cash balance of $26.3m, representing a ~$20m improvement on 30 June 2023. In addition, the company has an undrawn $100m bank facility in place to support growth.

The Board is pleased to declare a 1H24 fully imputed dividend of 4 cents per share. This has been maintained at the 1H23 level, reflecting the Board’s confidence in the company’s performance and outlook.

Outlook

Economic conditions are expected to remain challenging in the short term with some easing of macro trends supporting increased activity from Q4 FY24. Steel & Tube is well positioned to leverage the increase in demand from both the private and public sectors. Growth remains a key focus, both through organic expansion and acquisition.

Chair of Steel & Tube, Susan Paterson, commented: “Steel is an essential construction material and, in many cases, the only viable solution. There has been underinvestment in New Zealand’s infrastructure for many years and we look forward to the new coalition Government confirming its long term investment plan. We have significant experience and expertise in areas of climate resilience, seismic strengthening, rebuild activity and essential water services, and look forward to contributing to New Zealand’s future.”

ENDS

[bull....]

good result and the 4c div is very nice.
new aquisition in feb 24
https://www.robos.co.nz/

see there focus is on MA going forward

[nztx]

good result and the 4c div is very nice.
new aquisition in feb 24
https://www.robos.co.nz/

see there focus is on MA going forward



No sign of the ripper of economic burst of activity .. or did it bypass STU
and no-one noticed ? ;)

So much so that they got landed with having to rapidly unload inventory
to derisk the ship and put the coin back into the tin ..

Let's face it with FBU & VSL sitting in the punished corner languishing
on poorish performances there can't be many others out there wanting a
piece of STU in current economic conditions .. if things further hit the fan
what will that bring ? ;)

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack this morning looks at how Steel & Tube is faring in the current downturn and how it's changed since 2017. The headline is: Steel & Tube ready for continuing softness or rebound
And you can find it here:
https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

[Rawz]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack this morning looks at how Steel & Tube is faring in the current downturn and how it's changed since 2017. The headline is: Steel & Tube ready for continuing softness or rebound
And you can find it here:
https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

whats the article about i cant read it

[bull....]

huge crossing in stu this morning , must have seen the rise in vul and thought stu lagging

[X-men]

Juicy dividend in today...

[bull....]

Juicy dividend in today...

yes nice more than enough to pay for some beers and lap dances

[X-men]

We should go together for lap dance... mermaid??

[bull....]

We should go together for lap dance... mermaid??

sailor rob still owes yuou lap dance , ill be there when he pays up

[winner69]

Acquired a fleet of trucks and trailers and taken on the drivers

Earnings accretive they say …that’s good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/430311/417594.pdf

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. I published an additional column this morning on my Substack, Just the Business, looking at Steel & Tube's latest acquisition with the headline: Steel & Tube's trucking purchase is all about “the last mile”
You can find it here: https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

[winner69]

From Stats Nz - In the March 2024 quarter, the actual volume of ready-mixed concrete produced was down 12 percent compared with the March 2023 quarter…….been double decline for 4 quarters in a row now

Market remains subdued and challenging in STUspeak

Mark said last update there will be some easing of macro trends supporting increased activity from Q4 FY24….(that being this June Qtr )

Doubt whether that’s going to happen

Note: OK steel often goes where concrete doesn’t but there’s a strong correlation between ST sales and concrete production ….and STU often quote quote such economic indicators

[winner69]

Fletchers profit downgrade today noted weaker revenues and gross margin pressure in Steel, where end markets have been particularly soft.

Not surprising