STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[SailorRob]

I just bought some more at 1.55. Don't mind paying that price at 8.5% yld.

Great yield but why does it exist?

[bull....]

I just bought some more at 1.55. Don't mind paying that price at 8.5% yld.

i did too the other day for the exact reason. can t wait for the fat div :t_up:

[SailorRob]

i did too the other day for the exact reason. can t wait for the fat div :t_up:

Why not go for fatter ones, 15 or 20% surely better than 8.5?

[Rawz]

Why not go for fatter ones, 15 or 20% surely better than 8.5?

what company on the nzx ha a 20% div yield?

[bull....]

Why not go for fatter ones, 15 or 20% surely better than 8.5?

i would if there an opp.
i can t speak for seeweed but he may do the same as im doing
buy heaps for div dont matter the price as long as the price to get out ( the tricky bit ) is your average entry and collect the tax paid div. beats taking the capital gains and paying tax.

[see weed]

i would if there an opp.
i can t speak for seeweed but he may do the same as im doing
buy heaps for div dont matter the price as long as the price to get out ( the tricky bit ) is your average entry and collect the tax paid div. beats taking the capital gains and paying tax.
Morningstar has STU div yld at 9.03% at $1.44c per share. My av price was $1.328, But I was a Johny come lately, we can't complain about the yld, still heaps better than bank. Normally I would be selling down now but not in too much of a hurry with such a good yld. Looking around town, building going on everywhere, and there could be a bit of growth still left in the old steely tube:cool:

[Entrep]

i would if there an opp.
i can t speak for seeweed but he may do the same as im doing
buy heaps for div dont matter the price as long as the price to get out ( the tricky bit ) is your average entry and collect the tax paid div. beats taking the capital gains and paying tax.

I thought you were more a trader? How low could you see STU going?

[SailorRob]

Funds and especially asset allocators are driven by macro moves all the time so not sure what you mean. It is one of the few research methods adopted in funds management. The early ones to realise that the world was in long term inflation and interest rate move down around the early 1990s made themselves the biggest fund managers in the world, it is arguable that is what supported index funds btw.

I understand what you are saying but I have been seeing it at the coal face which lead me into looking at it more deeply. I went to 3 major conferences in the US in June which truly had heavy hitters either speaking or just in the audience listening. The conversations, especially at the energy transition one(300 CEOs + 400 others), were very active around exactly what I am talking about, in the sessions or sit-downs. This is a big issue in a lot of peoples' minds and those people are the ones trying to deliver the move.

Everyone is entitled to a view as you say. But it is a paradigm shift that has been asked for. Whether it can be delivered at a financial cost acceptable to the public hasn't even been discussed.


Anyone who reads the above in Blue and then the link I'm posting will be doing themselves a great service and will make a huge difference to their net worth over time.

As you progress through the article, keep coming back and re reading the blue text above and try to imagine yourself at Dassets conference and try to imagine the people there and what they are saying and the crowd hanging off their words.


https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge

[SailorRob]

Morningstar has STU div yld at 9.03% at $1.44c per share. My av price was $1.328, But I was a Johny come lately, we can't complain about the yld, still heaps better than bank. Normally I would be selling down now but not in too much of a hurry with such a good yld. Looking around town, building going on everywhere, and there could be a bit of growth still left in the old steely tube:cool:

'Buying a cyclical after several years of good earnings & when the dividend yield has hit a high point is a proven method for losing half your money in a short period of time' - Peter Lynch.

[see weed]

'Buying a cyclical after several years of good earnings & when the dividend yield has hit a high point is a proven method for losing half your money in a short period of time' - Peter Lynch.
That is right. If you look at the 10 year graph, we are halfway through the up cycle and heading towards the $2 to $3 mark.;)

[bull....]

Morningstar has STU div yld at 9.03% at $1.44c per share. My av price was $1.328, But I was a Johny come lately, we can't complain about the yld, still heaps better than bank. Normally I would be selling down now but not in too much of a hurry with such a good yld. Looking around town, building going on everywhere, and there could be a bit of growth still left in the old steely tube:cool:

yea im in no hurry to sell. 12 mths of solid growth ahead + some aquisitions to come. 2024 mght see some slowdown but to what extent who knows for sure yet

[bull....]

'Buying a cyclical after several years of good earnings & when the dividend yield has hit a high point is a proven method for losing half your money in a short period of time' - Peter Lynch.

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

[SailorRob]

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

Rubbish, just look at sea weeds earlier post and the 10 year graph. It's that easy.

[percy]

That is right. If you look at the 10 year graph, we are halfway through the up cycle and heading towards the $2 to $3 mark.;)

Still some good mileage and big divies ahead.
We remain "well positioned."

[bull....]

Rubbish, just look at sea weeds earlier post and the 10 year graph. It's that easy.

steel an tube been badly managed for nearly 20 years if your looking at a chart. 4.50 to 50c says it all. i dont need to forecast a price to understand that malpass management will determine if it gets back to highs.
i worked with malpass years ago and know his style so things are panning out as expected so far. the true test will be as they say making the company more resilient to a slowing in activity.

[SailorRob]

steel an tube been badly managed for nearly 20 years if your looking at a chart. 4.50 to 50c says it all. i dont need to forecast a price to understand that malpass management will determine if it gets back to highs.
i worked with malpass years ago and know his style so things are panning out as expected so far. the true test will be as they say making the company more resilient to a slowing in activity.

I wonder if Malpass agrees with you. We could check how many STU shares he owns purchased with his own money and then relate that number to his salary and net worth.

[SailorRob]

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

So you're not forecasting Malpass ability to manage?

[bull....]

So you're not forecasting Malpass ability to manage?

bit hard not to forecast in any aspect of investing really isnt it. thats why i had to have a laugh over that oaktree article you posted from a guy who says he never forecasts lol but on one hand says we managed difficult environments well by adjusting our portfolio's to suit what was ahead. my muppet comment was just a bit of a stir

[bull....]

I wonder if Malpass agrees with you. We could check how many STU shares he owns purchased with his own money and then relate that number to his salary and net worth.

i like it when insiders buy shares in a company too. someone should have asked him at the results Q& A .

[SailorRob]

bit hard not to forecast in any aspect of investing really isnt it. thats why i had to have a laugh over that oaktree article you posted from a guy who says he never forecasts lol but on one hand says we managed difficult environments well by adjusting our portfolio's to suit what was ahead. my muppet comment was just a bit of a stir

Exactly. Forecasting macroeconomics is for muppets. Not businesses.

Best method of conservatively forecasting STU is long period of past performance, which puts intrinsic value at $1.50. Could do better but the money was made by anticipating they would return to the mean long term performance and purchasing in bulk between 50 and 80 cents. From here foreword is too unclear.

[bull....]

Exactly. Forecasting macroeconomics is for muppets. Not businesses.

Best method of conservatively forecasting STU is long period of past performance, which puts intrinsic value at $1.50. Could do better but the money was made by anticipating they would return to the mean long term performance and purchasing in bulk between 50 and 80 cents. From here foreword is too unclear.

so then your forecasting the macro environment is to unclear going forward to say stu is a good investment ?

[SailorRob]

so then your forecasting the macro environment is to unclear going forward to say stu is a good investment ?

I can't and don't try to forecast the macro environment but based on what I can forecast with a reasonable degree of certainty I think intrinsic value is around $1.50 and owning STU at this price over the long term would produce satisfactory results. At 52c I bought it cheaper than free, they were paying me to take it. Could have liquidated the working capital alone and done well.

[percy]

I can't and don't try to forecast the macro environment but based on what I can forecast with a reasonable degree of certainty I think intrinsic value is around $1.50 and owning STU at this price over the long term would produce satisfactory results. At 52c I bought it cheaper than free, they were paying me to take it. Could have liquidated the working capital alone and done well.

You did well.
Fantastic dividend yield on your entry cost .25%?.
And fully imputed next year.

[SailorRob]

You did well.
Fantastic dividend yield on your entry cost .25%?.
And fully imputed next year.


Thanks, I just checked purchases original buy at 80c and then filled up at 54c not 52. So that would be 24% yield on the 54c purchases however I sold at $1.58 in February.

I'd be reasonably happy holding around $1.50 under normal market conditions but there are so many incredible companies on sale now (Ex NZ) the opportunity cost is too high. The 'market' was down 24/25% but lots of stuff down way more than that.

[Shepherd]

Hi SailorRob,

what are some of the companies you currenly rate as good buys and better than STU?

[RTM]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1835-STU-Steel-amp-Tube-Holdings&highlight=stu

Obviously no deck building going on at Richards house.

[Poet]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1835-STU-Steel-amp-Tube-Holdings&highlight=stu

Obviously no deck building going on at Richards house.

With a bit of luck we should get a (positive) market update on Friday morning pre the AGM

[SailorRob]

Hi SailorRob,

what are some of the companies you currenly rate as good buys and better than STU?


Hi Shepard, Sorry missed this post at the time.

STU whilst it may be still good value it would not cross my radar as a buy here as it's just not cheap enough in comparison to what other opportunities there are. Nor cheap enough irrespective. I think it's very fair value but that doesn't do it for me, there are many far better opportunities.

That said I can't speak for any NZ companies aside from OCA which I am not going to pretend I am an expert in and haven't tried to be either as I am following the vast work of a trusted friend who is a very shrewd equity investor. As well as buying the cash that some very smart people injected at or around $1.30 recently and I'm buying that at 91 cents, Liz Coutts would kill to be in my shoes (Director with large interest and put in equity at $1.30) So for many reasons I think OCA is very attractive here.

As for other NZ companies, I just don't really follow the market. I have not understood NZ from an economic point of view for some time and just think it's fairly obvious that things are not going to be great here from a investment perspective (could be very wrong but that won't hurt me) and I have almost all of my net worth off shore (thank god). I have been suspicious of NZ inc's share price (the NZD) for a while and we're just such a tiny speck on the global financial markets that there is always the risk of some calamity just destroying your life savings if it's all here. Ultimately if we can not produce our export goods/services efficiently and competitively or the demand for them reduces and demand for other NZ assets isn't there then our currency could be toast. We are not Australia where when things look bad you just dig a hole and dig out some valuable stuff.

Internationally there are opportunities right now that you will only see a handful of times in your life and long term forward returns should be very good indeed. Everyone focuses on how much 'the market' is down, here or the US but this is meaningless in the context of individual companies where there has been some absolute bloodshed. Problem is that if you're using NZD to buy US assets you are buying with a weak currency into a very strong one...

An exceptional buy here is Berkshire Hathaway - as well as producing double digit returns from here as far as the eye can see (long term, short term who knows), it's probably the safest non sovereign financial entity in the world, and far safer than all but a handful of sovereigns. I would happily have my entire net worth invested in this one company.

Staying stateside, you could look at the Companies that Buffett loaded up on earlier this year in Q1, all but one of which can be purchased far cheaper now. 5 Of them I was lucky enough to have purchased before the report came out that Berkshire had also bought and I would and am buying more here. Markel, Citibank, Paramount, Occidental and Berkshire itself (repurchases).


Staying stateside take a look at LILAK (I own) https://superfluousvalue.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-lilak?sd=pf (https://superfluousvalue.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-lilak?sd=pf) and the Activision arbitrage is very attractive too IMO.


The UK is providing opportunity with a weak pound and beaten down stocks too, Unilever incredible blue chip, and Babcock for a company with real turn around potential.


Have a look at CH Hutchinson on the Honk Kong exchange (I bought some more today).


Loads of stuff out there, maybe things will get cheaper, maybe not, but who cares at these prices you buy and hold you make Bank.

Cheers, sorry for the off topic folks.

[Muse]

Hi Shepard, Sorry missed this post at the time.

STU whilst it may be still good value it would not cross my radar as a buy here as it's just not cheap enough in comparison to what other opportunities there are. Nor cheap enough irrespective. I think it's very fair value but that doesn't do it for me, there are many far better opportunities.

That said I can't speak for any NZ companies aside from OCA which I am not going to pretend I am an expert in and haven't tried to be either as I am following the vast work of a trusted friend who is a very shrewd equity investor. As well as buying the cash that some very smart people injected at or around $1.30 recently and I'm buying that at 91 cents, Liz Coutts would kill to be in my shoes (Director with large interest and put in equity at $1.30) So for many reasons I think OCA is very attractive here.

As for other NZ companies, I just don't really follow the market. I have not understood NZ from an economic point of view for some time and just think it's fairly obvious that things are not going to be great here from a investment perspective (could be very wrong but that won't hurt me) and I have almost all of my net worth off shore (thank god). I have been suspicious of NZ inc's share price (the NZD) for a while and we're just such a tiny speck on the global financial markets that there is always the risk of some calamity just destroying your life savings if it's all here. Ultimately if we can not produce our export goods/services efficiently and competitively or the demand for them reduces and demand for other NZ assets isn't there then our currency could be toast. We are not Australia where when things look bad you just dig a hole and dig out some valuable stuff.

Internationally there are opportunities right now that you will only see a handful of times in your life and long term forward returns should be very good indeed. Everyone focuses on how much 'the market' is down, here or the US but this is meaningless in the context of individual companies where there has been some absolute bloodshed. Problem is that if you're using NZD to buy US assets you are buying with a weak currency into a very strong one...

An exceptional buy here is Berkshire Hathaway - as well as producing double digit returns from here as far as the eye can see (long term, short term who knows), it's probably the safest non sovereign financial entity in the world, and far safer than all but a handful of sovereigns. I would happily have my entire net worth invested in this one company.

Staying stateside, you could look at the Companies that Buffett loaded up on earlier this year in Q1, all but one of which can be purchased far cheaper now. 5 Of them I was lucky enough to have purchased before the report came out that Berkshire had also bought and I would and am buying more here. Markel, Citibank, Paramount, Occidental and Berkshire itself (repurchases).


Staying stateside take a look at LILAK (I own) https://superfluousvalue.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-lilak?sd=pf (https://superfluousvalue.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-lilak?sd=pf)and the Activision arbitrage is very attractive too IMO.


The UK is providing opportunity with a weak pound and beaten down stocks too, Unilever incredible blue chip, and Babcock for a company with real turn around potential.


Have a look at CH Hutchinson on the Honk Kong exchange (I bought some more today).


Loads of stuff out there, maybe things will get cheaper, maybe not, but who cares at these prices you buy and hold you make Bank.

Cheers, sorry for the off topic folks.

thanks for the names.

my issue with the offshores, is the bloody FIF tax regime if you are investing directly. Fortunately vast majority of ASX companies are carved out from that, but ROW shares are not, if you are above $50k.

[SailorRob]

thanks for the names.

my issue with the offshores, is the bloody FIF tax regime if you are investing directly. Fortunately vast majority of ASX companies are carved out from that, but ROW shares are not, if you are above $50k.

Yeah, it's not too bad, but not good either. Roughly speaking you pay tax at your personal rate on 5% of the value of your overseas portfolio. So for a million dollar portfolio you're paying tax on 50k income and get to back out any withholding tax on dividends already paid. So similar to if you had a million dollars worth of a NZ company paying a 5% dividend (imputations aside). You will already know this, info for others.

One bonus is that if you are invested in a company with a dividend greater than 5% then the rest is effectively tax free. But for non dividend paying companies I'm at a huge disadvantage investing offshore.

For me the benefits of having capital ex NZ and in companies that can compound capital at high rates outweighs the disadvantages.

[Muse]

Yeah, it's not too bad, but not good either. Roughly speaking you pay tax at your personal rate on 5% of the value of your overseas portfolio. So for a million dollar portfolio you're paying tax on 50k income and get to back out any withholding tax on dividends already paid. So similar to if you had a million dollars worth of a NZ company paying a 5% dividend (imputations aside). You will already know this, info for others.

One bonus is that if you are invested in a company with a dividend greater than 5% then the rest is effectively tax free. But for non dividend paying companies I'm at a huge disadvantage investing offshore.

For me the benefits of having capital ex NZ and in companies that can compound capital at high rates outweighs the disadvantages.

they really ought to change the 5% "deemed" dividend threshold. Divy yields far more compressed offshore than in NZ.

But yeah agree with your other points. Sometimes you have to look through inefficiencies to access equity exposures that just aren't available in NZ or Australia.

Fixing FIF would be near the top of my wish list. Getting NZ and AU leaders in a room and agreeing that we can utulise each others franking/imputation credits would probably be even higher.

A lot of NZ companies issue a supplemental dividend to australian holders to compensate.

Anyone aware of aussie companies that do the same for kiwi shareholders?

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=Fiordland Moose;976880] they really ought to change the 5% "deemed" dividend threshold. Divy yields far more compressed offshore than in NZ.


I read a good report on how the system is designed to favor domestic investing... Should reduce it for sure, but won't.

[Snow Leopard]

....
A lot of NZ companies issue a supplemental dividend to australian holders to compensate.

Anyone aware of aussie companies that do the same for kiwi shareholders?
....


OK. NZ companies do a supplementary (which is really 15/28ths of the imputation) for all overseas residents and the NZ tax office deducts 15% of the sum of the dividend + supplement.
Your local tax regime then may tax you further as they see fit.

Aus companies/tax office deduct a withholding tax from dividends for overseas residents which comes out of the franking credits where it can.

Again your local tax regime then may tax you further as they see fit.

In both cases your gross is the dividend + [ supplement or withholding ]


More: In addition some NZ companies such as EBO also provide actual franking credits that Australians can use.

[Poet]

Promises to be a positive STU AGM on what is likely to be a pretty poor day overall across the NZX

Steel & Tube - Trading Update - September 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399689)

[winner69]

Promises to be a positive STU AGM on what is likely to be a pretty poor day overall across the NZX

Steel & Tube - Trading Update - September 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399689)

Should be a good day ....

.......unless the analysts / media pick up on 'Customer activity is anticipated to be steady although in some sectors will moderate off the recent extraordinary high demand levels, as is already being seen.'

Punters a bit titchy these days

[Sideshow Bob]

Meeting notes & preso slides

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/399707/380133.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/399707/380134.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Should be a good day ....

.......unless the analysts / media pick up on 'Customer activity is anticipated to be steady although in some sectors will moderate off the recent extraordinary high demand levels, as is already being seen.'

Punters a bit titchy these days

Well they clearly talked the SP up: Share gained so far 4 cents during the AGM :t_up: though a bit disappointing that less than 2000 shares traded for this price :ohmy:

Mark talking a lot about all sorts of growth, but I didn't really manage to find out whether he means overall growth (like revenue and earnings), or whether he just means some things are growing and others are dropping and the outcome will stay flat.

Analysts (like documented on market screener) seem to be less optimistic than Marc, but - too be fair - they have a history of being pessimistic about STU and so far have been wrong.

Anyway - they had all this strategic change, last years results rocked, divi was amazing (and in the account) ... and talk about more growth (where ever it is) must be good, mustn't it?

[bull....]

BP i think he meaning bolt on aquisitions to compliment existing business units and they will be smallish in nature at this stage but in the future may lead to bigger things

[BlackPeter]

BP i think he meaning bolt on aquisitions to compliment existing business units and they will be smallish in nature at this stage but in the future may lead to bigger things

So - what do you mean?

[bull....]

i dont think there be very material to any revenue or earnings

[BlackPeter]

i dont think there be very material to any revenue or earnings

Agreed - so, lots of talk about nothing ;) ;

[winner69]

Should be a good day ....

.......unless the analysts / media pick up on 'Customer activity is anticipated to be steady although in some sectors will moderate off the recent extraordinary high demand levels, as is already being seen.'

Punters a bit titchy these days

Vulcan at ASM reaffirmed guidance - F23 ebitda could be as much as 12% down on F22

Is STU struggling to keep up as well - share price not looking that good at the moment

[winner69]

Vulcan at ASM reaffirmed guidance - F23 ebitda could be as much as 12% down on F22

Is STU struggling to keep up as well - share price not looking that good at the moment

I hadn't noticed that the Vulcan ebitda guidance included 11 months contribution from Ullrich (35m to 27m)

That means Vulcan steel F23 ebitda could be down as much as 22% on F22

Hope STU not going to be that bad......they were so bullish at the ASM

[Entrep]

STV vs Vulcan

https://i.imgur.com/gKD7btJ.png

[winner69]

STV vs Vulcan

https://i.imgur.com/gKD7btJ.png

Is STU share price catching up VSL share price on the downward leg ..... like heading to about 115 ....ouch

[Balance]

Is STU share price catching up VSL share price on the downward leg ..... like heading to about 115 ....ouch

Good - sooner the better!

[winner69]

Good - sooner the better!

FBU getting cheaper these days as well

[Balance]

FBU getting cheaper these days as well

Waiting for it to hit my target buy in price too - still some distance away.

[winner69]

I note annual production of Ready mixed concrete reached an all time high in Sept quarter (stats nz)

Doesn't steel go where concrete goes ... yes?

Good sign

[percy]

I note annual production of Ready mixed concrete reached an all time high in Sept quarter (stats nz)

Doesn't steel go where concrete goes ... yes?

Good sign

The market agrees with you, as I note STU's share price is rising in anticipation of a good result on the 15th.
I agree with you and the market.

[see weed]

Am also buying into STU my target is 100,000 before 15/2/23. That is paying me 9.3% yld. It would be a nice surprise if they raised the div by 1 or 2c.

[BlackPeter]

Am also buying into STU my target is 100,000 before 15/2/23. That is paying me 9.3% yld. It would be a nice surprise if they raised the div by 1 or 2c.

Damn, that's the reason I had to pay that much today?

Anyway - got my feed and ASB sent only 27 emails to confirm my deal. Smallest parcel was 2 shares.

Feel free to push the price further up ...

[percy]

Damn, that's the reason I had to pay that much today?

Anyway - got my feed and ASB sent only 27 emails to confirm my deal. Smallest parcel was 2 shares.

Feel free to push the price further up ...

Keep it up team.
I am enjoying the ride.
Just hopeful the divie will be fully imputed.

[Entrep]

Easily my biggest holding. Feeling well positioned for the future.

[Balance]

Auckland floods will delay building downturn.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/auckland-flood-damage-will-delay-construction-downturn/5XPTSDNNCRBSZKANVYK7BGBIQM/

While the recent flooding is unlikely to have a major impact on New Zealand’s economic outlook it could delay the building sector downturn and keep construction costs elevated for some time, economists say.

“Based on what has been reported so far, we estimate that it could be in the range of $500m, and potentially higher,” said Westpac acting chief economist Michael Gordon in a new report this morning.

[clearasmud]

Easily my biggest holding. Feeling well positioned for the future.

Well done. Long may you collect those juicy dividends.!

[X-men]

Last trading tmw before the result

[winner69]

Rat **** result

Love how the weather is the go to excuse these days …second half not looking good


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388509.pdf

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=X-men;992420]Last trading tmw before the result[/QUOTE

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406675 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406675)

Doesn't look very impressive results like all other construction related companies ...Divd 4 cents but fully imputed compared to 5.5 Cents unimputed ..is almost same as before ....

[sb9]

Rat **** result

Love how the weather is the go to excuse these days …hides how bad underlying performance really is


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388509.pdf

Looks similar to that of Vulcan results the other day, golden time over for now?

[bull....]

good result and more bolt on's coming

[sb9]

good result and more bolt on's coming

Looks as though you're long on this one, must be seeing with different set of glasses than most of us.

[percy]

A mixed result.
Sales Revenue up 11.74% yet cost of sales were up 13.40%.
Borrowings down $11mil.
Pleasing seeing inventory down $17.445mil
EPS down from 8.7cents to 7.1 cents.
Imputed divie of 4cents is positive but is the same as the previous 5.5cents unimputed.
Cash flow from operating activities was outstanding at $41.140 mil.
Also pleasing was seeing the equity ratio improving from 48.42% to 53.48%.
The business is in very good shape.Management are performing well.
The entry into the aluminium market should be another good bolt on serving their existing customers.

[alokdhir]

Looks as though you're long on this one, must be seeing with different set of glasses than most of us.

Thought the same but u beat me mate ...:p

[bull....]

Looks as though you're long on this one, must be seeing with different set of glasses than most of us.

its a good result in regards to they are managing the current environment very well

[sb9]

its a good result in regards to they are managing the current environment very well

You're trying very hard to justify, imagine if you were short on this, you would've crapped the hell out of this result.

[bull....]

You're trying very hard to justify, imagine if you were short on this, you would've crapped the hell out of this result.

i have owned this stock for quite some time .... sitting nicely for div's.
i dont trade this stock to illiquid so no bias

[nztx]

its a good result in regards to they are managing the current environment very well

I think so .. they seem more awake to prevailing conditions this time round

[winner69]

Market fallen out of love with STU

Share price heading to 110 sooner than later

[Balance]

Market fallen out of love with STU

Share price heading to 110 sooner than later

Hope so :)

Keep pushing that narrative, W69. You did a great job with SKO on that front!

[winner69]

Populated the STU financial database and 3 key messages popped out

They say amazing Cash Flow in H123 -- but if you take the last 12 months (H222 and H123) Free Cash Flow is - $3.2m (yes - Cash Burn) and that's not counting the $8.9m spent in buying that Kiwi Pipe outfit .....NOT SO GOOD

and in spite of the rhetoric Gross Margin as a %age of sales has declined 2 half years in a row .... START OF A TREND?

and in conclusion - sell $33m stuff AND make $2.5m less profit ....WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON?

[nztx]

Populated the STU financial database and 3 key messages popped out

They say amazing Cash Flow in H123 -- but if you take the last 12 months (H222 and H123) Free Cash Flow is - $3.2m (yes - Cash Burn) and that's not counting the $8.9m spent in buying that Kiwi Pipe outfit .....NOT SO GOOD

and in spite of the rhetoric Gross Margin as a %age of sales has declined 2 half years in a row .... START OF A TREND?

and in conclusion - sell $33m stuff AND make $2.5m less profit ....WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON?


A possible explanation - some of that expensive high priced stock they stocked up on went out discounted at lower margins so they didn't get caught even more badly with pants down wearing potentially greater stock impairment write downs

The have reported pricing now coming down and a few years ago got caught badly on stock carried needing larger
impairments to fair value -- was that part of that large recapitalisation 3-5 years ago ?

A few may have long memories of past history with this outfit ;)

All beer and skittles while demand pricing & margins were rising .. but watch for the reverse scenario
which is happening now, if reports are correct :)

How's the market love of VSL going on what they just reported ?

[percy]

Cash flows from operating activities
Customer receipts 337,514 278,295
Interest receipts 144 42
Payments to suppliers and employees (287,584) (286,376)
Payments for interest on leases (2,244) (2,361)
Income tax payments (5,102) -
Interest payments (1,646) (202)
Wage subsidy received 58 988
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from operating activities 41,140 (9,614)

Outstanding.
That is over $41 mil.

[winner69]

Looking at one half year cash flow can give the wrong impression percy

Jan22/June22 Free Cash Flow -$35.0m - July22/Dec22 FCF +$31.8m (not counting acquisition $8.9m) so 12 months to Dec22 Cash Outflow $3.2m- NOT OUTSTANDING

[percy]

Looking at one half year cash flow can give the wrong impression percy

Jan22/June22 Free Cash Flow -$35.0m - July22/Dec22 FCF +$31.8m (not counting acquisition $8.9m) so 12 months to Dec22 Cash Outflow $3.2m- NOT OUTSTANDING
I will stick with the one half year...lol

Company presentation.
Look for cash flow increase from last year's first half.Page 9...increase 528.1%
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388494.pdf

[BlackPeter]

I will stick with the one half year...lol

Company presentation.
Look for cash flow increase from last year's first half.Page 9...increase 528.1%
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388494.pdf

Good point. I suppose the significantly improved cashflows in the last HY have something to do with them selling down their inventories, which they used to build up previously to deal with the logistical challenges of the Covid period?

Makes a lot of sense to expect cashflows to stay healthy for some time to come ...

[percy]

Good point. I suppose the significantly improved cashflows in the last HY have something to do with them selling down their inventories, which they used to build up previously to deal with the logistical challenges of the Covid period?

Makes a lot of sense to expect cashflows to stay healthy for some time to come ...

Agree....................................

[Balance]

Good point. I suppose the significantly improved cashflows in the last HY have something to do with them selling down their inventories, which they used to build up previously to deal with the logistical challenges of the Covid period?

Makes a lot of sense to expect cashflows to stay healthy for some time to come ...

Stop upsetting W69’s one track train.

He only wants negatives.

[alokdhir]

Stop upsetting W69’s one track train.

He only wants negatives.

Balance I dont fully understand how u can be so negative on economy per say especially construction and property but still so positive on STU ...maybe something I am missing which makes them insensitive to recession etc

[Balance]

Balance I dont fully understand how u can be so negative on economy per say especially construction and property but still so positive on STU ...maybe something I am missing which makes them insensitive to recession etc

I am happy to keep my STU at current levels for the high yield and the undemanding multiples it is trading on. Also, STU is not that exposed to the residential market and will benefit from infrastructure spend.

If the likes of W69 can helpfully push STU down to $1.10 or lower, I would be a big buyer.

He did a big favour for those of us looking to pick up Serko at a good price with his negative postings - most happy for his assistance!

On the economy, I have written and made my views clear - a spend thrift government feeding inflation and a RBNZ fighting inflation. Government is throwing gasoline into the fire and the RBNZ has the fire hose (higher interest rates) to contain the fire - economy is the casualty. You seriously think either one will change course this year?

Know the posters on this site and know your stuff!

[alokdhir]

I am happy to keep my STU at current levels for the high yield and the undemanding multiples it is trading on. Also, STU is not that exposed to the residential market and will benefit from infrastructure spend.

If the likes of W69 can helpfully push STU down to $1.10 or lower, I would be a big buyer.

On the economy, I have written and made my views clear - a spend thrift government feeding inflation and a RBNZ fighting inflation. You seriously think either one will change course this year?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate ...I do agree with good yield (at present ) and low multiples but many ifs and buts still around ...

I hope W69 helps u out and u can have your full fill and then some more ...:p

[Entrep]

I am happy to keep my STU at current levels for the high yield and the undemanding multiples it is trading on. Also, STU is not that exposed to the residential market and will benefit from infrastructure spend.

If the likes of W69 can helpfully push STU down to $1.10 or lower, I would be a big buyer.

He did a big favour for those of us looking to pick up Serko at a good price with his negative postings - most happy for his assistance!

On the economy, I have written and made my views clear - a spend thrift government feeding inflation and a RBNZ fighting inflation. Government is throwing gasoline into the fire and the RBNZ has the fire hose (higher interest rates) to contain the fire - economy is the casualty. You seriously think either one will change course this year?

Know the posters on this site and know your stuff!

Do you think that management's poor historic performance is well and truly in the rear view mirror?

[Balance]

Do you think that management's poor historic performance is well and truly in the rear view mirror?

I am comfortable with current management.

Market obviously still has doubts which is why STU trades where it is.

BTW - I have the highest regard and respect for W69. You just have to know the man and his ironical & cynical sense when he does some of his postings.

[alokdhir]

I am comfortable with current management.

Market obviously still has doubts which is why STU trades where it is.

BTW - I have the highest regard and respect for W69. You just have to know the man and his ironical & cynical sense when he does some of his postings.

Over the period of time U get to know him ...but after all he is also human and has his likes and dislikes ...I know about at least two ...or maybe more but ...

[Balance]

This forum would be a very poor place but for the postings and efforts of some of the posters like W69.

[winner69]

Entrep asked 'Do you think that management's poor historic performance is well and truly in the rear view mirror?'

Percy said cash flow performance outstanding - I responded saying it wasn't really that good


Chart below STU's Free Cash Flow (all annual totals) .... and doesn't count cash for acquisitions but does include proceeds of selling things off a few years ago

I'd contend that to some extent it answers Entrep questions and even though percy will still disagree shows cash hasn't been that well managed the last 2 years

Cash is king they say so how cash is managed over time is how I look at some companys

[Balance]

Entrep asked 'Do you think that management's poor historic performance is well and truly in the rear view mirror?'

Percy said cash flow performance outstanding - I responded saying it wasn't really that good


Chart below STU's Free Cash Flow (all annual totals) .... and doesn't count cash for acquisitions but does include proceeds of selling things off a few years ago

I'd contend that to some extent it answers Entrep questions and even though percy will still disagree shows cash hasn't been that well managed the last 2 years

Cash is king they say so how cash is managed over time is how I look at some companys

You must be pleased you never invested in any of the retirement village stocks then!

[BlackPeter]

Entrep asked 'Do you think that management's poor historic performance is well and truly in the rear view mirror?'

Percy said cash flow performance outstanding - I responded saying it wasn't really that good


Chart below STU's Free Cash Flow (all annual totals) .... and doesn't count cash for acquisitions but does include proceeds of selling things off a few years ago

I'd contend that to some extent it answers Entrep questions and even though percy will still disagree shows cash hasn't been that well managed the last 2 years

Cash is king they say so how cash is managed over time is how I look at some companys

winner,

they significantly increased their inventory last year (to mitigate the supply problems on the world market), which obviously consumed cash (i.e. swap cash against inventory - negative cash flow).

Now they are reducing their inventory again (i.e. they sell more than they restock) - and - surprise, surprise ..... cash flow is positive.

Are you saying it was a bad thing that they acted proactively to keep their ability to deliver intact? Should have just told their customers to go away and supply their stuff somewhere else?

What do I miss :confused:?

[percy]

Net operating cash flow 41.1 (9.6) 528.1%

[Balance]

winner,

they significantly increased their inventory last year (to mitigate the supply problems on the world market), which obviously consumed cash (i.e. swap cash against inventory - negative cash flow).

Now they are reducing their inventory again (i.e. they sell more than they restock) - and - surprise, surprise ..... cash flow is positive.

Are you saying it was a bad thing that they acted proactively to keep their ability to deliver intact? Should have just told their customers to go away and supply their stuff somewhere else?

What do I miss :confused:?

W69 likes management to manage companies half year by half year so that he can criticize their performance on a more regular basis?

[Perky]

W69 likes management to manage companies half year by half year so that he can criticize their performance on a more regular basis?

Good one Balance
this gave me a good laugh. Can’t wait till AI kicks in and he can get it daily/ monthly…he will need a beautiful robot assistant to help write his posts

[alokdhir]

W69 likes management to manage companies half year by half year so that he can criticize their performance on a more regular basis?

Show me one post in which he criticised HGH !!! Though its SP not doing well since last 6-7 months in spite of market recovered so much ground .

[Perky]

Show me one post in which he criticised HGH !!! Though its SP not doing well since last 6-7 months in spite of market recovered so much ground .


here you go…from the other site. Bolded his negativity for you.Please courier my prize to my Nigerian based personal assistant.

Basil mentioned he not that happy with Heartland 'culture' and reduced his holding

My adoration of Jeff and his team is waning ....the halo is losing its shine ...fast ......and Heartland doesn't seem to be the Heartland it once was

Be a bad day if we ever had to say 'Heartland didn't do what they said they would do' ....might not be far off

The 'halo effect' in business is an interesting concept. Might pull out my copy of "The Halo Effect: . . . and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers" and sit out in the sun (fogs lifting) and give it another read

[winner69]

STU Gross Margin % not improving is it ……not that long ago they said it was going to higher number than they just reported.

[nztx]

Show me one post in which he criticised HGH !!! Though its SP not doing well since last 6-7 months in spite of market recovered so much ground .

give it another month or so & it doesn't look too bad for 6 months :)


contrast that to the Rest Home Sector nosediving :)

[winner69]

W69 likes management to manage companies half year by half year so that he can criticize their performance on a more regular basis?

No Balance …… I like management to manage day by day

[percy]

STU Gross Margin % not improving is it ……not that long ago they said it was going to higher number than they just reported.

Effective margin management with some
reduction as excess inventory moved at
reduced margin and input costs increase

[nztx]

so it wasn't covered by forward sales at loftier heights ?
STU should know better than any others that what goes up fast also may have symptoms of sliding back to ground
equally as fast in certain commodities lines ;)
It was burnie burnies last time in a bad way ..

[alokdhir]

here you go…from the other site. Bolded his negativity for you.Please courier my prize to my Nigerian based personal assistant.


Basil mentioned he not that happy with Heartland 'culture' and reduced his holding

My adoration of Jeff and his team is waning ....the halo is losing its shine ...fast ......and Heartland doesn't seem to be the Heartland it once was

Be a bad day if we ever had to say 'Heartland didn't do what they said they would do' ....might not be far off

The 'halo effect' in business is an interesting concept. Might pull out my copy of "The Halo Effect: . . . and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers" and sit out in the sun (fogs lifting) and give it another read


Abbreviated version of this he posted on this side also after I mentioned Mr B's latest views and actions here on HGH thread ...I remember this mate but hats off to u for your sharpness ....:t_up:

[alokdhir]

No Balance …… I like management to manage day by day

Thats what they get paid for ...FWIW ....I am with u on this one mate ...STU !!

All stocks had covid froth some way or the other ...as liquidity has a way of getting into even smaller holes ...Easy money inflated all businesses and all will need to readjust and get repriced to " normal " levels of rates in future ...Large caps thus will do better as they became large caps due to better management not by liquidity fuelled rush which made them look doing well ...its in difficult times " Boys get separated from Men "

PS : Pls dont throw RYM bricks at me ...I dont consider such speculatively managed stocks as a large cap though it reached great heights like ATM

[percy]

Thats what they get paid for ...FWIW ....I am with u on this one mate ...STU !!

All stocks had covid froth some way or the other ...as liquidity has a way of getting into even smaller holes ...Easy money inflated all businesses and all will need to readjust and get repriced to " normal " levels of rates in future ...Large caps thus will do better as they became large caps due to better management not by liquidity fuelled rush which made them look doing well ...its in difficult times " Boys get separated from Men "

You forget that Ebos,Mainfreight,Freightways,A2 Milk,Briscoes,Warehouse,Michael Hill,Delegats,Goodman Property,Heartland Bank,Restaurant Brands,and others were once small companies.
When I first bought into Ebos their market cap was approx $2.5 mil.Now over $8 bil.
Small companies with good management is where the strongest growth is.

[alokdhir]

You forget that Ebos,Mainfreight,Freightways,A2 Milk,Briscoes,Warehouse,Michael Hill,Delegats,Goodman Property,Heartland Bank,Restaurant Brands,and others were once small companies.
When I first bought into Ebos their market cap was approx $2.5 mil.Now over $8 bil.
Small companies with good management is where the strongest growth is.

I agree but I am not at a place where I think I am looking for 1 in 10 multi bagger ....I want safety of mature companies ...also current times are not go hunting for multi bagger imho

Good managements do well in difficult times ....STU's management doesn't have that kind of history YET ...maybe ahead ...thats why market gives it low multiples

[percy]

I agree but I am not at a place where I think I am looking for 1 in 10 multi bagger ....I want safety of mature companies ...also current times are not go hunting for multi bagger imho

Good managements do well in difficult times ....STU's management doesn't have that kind of history YET ...maybe ahead ...thats why market gives it low multiples

Well I am well past retirement age,and a good spread of small companies ,balances my "core" holdings,which act as a substitute for bonds,which I avoid.
My spec and aggressive holdings are on ASX.[Well most of them are].lol

[alokdhir]

Well I am well past retirement age,and a good spread of small companies ,balances my "core" holdings,which act as a substitute for bonds,which I avoid.
My spec and aggressive holdings are on ASX.[Well most of them are].lol

U r doing very well mate and U r much more well informed and diligent worker then me ...I look for mental peace over joy of winnings ...trying to develop that thinking over time ...leaning to be a true Buddhist....my final aim !!!

[percy]

U r doing very well mate and U r much more well informed and diligent worker then me ...I look for mental peace over joy of winnings ...trying to develop that thinking over time ...leaning to be a true Buddhist....my final aim !!!

The sharemarket has been of interest to me for 56 years.
Many of those years I had no funds to invest,but still followed it..
Made every mistake that could be made.
However I have enjoyed and still enjoy a very interesting and rewarding hobbie.
When looking at small companies here are a few things I look for.
Does the CEO and Chairman speak in plain English.
Do they do what they say they will do.
Do they have a lot of their own capital "on the line" ie invested in the company.
Do current assets far exceed current liabilities.
Is cash flow from operations positive.
Is the reason for the business being in business positive,and something you are proud to be an owner of.
If you can not understand the business,do not invest in it.

[alokdhir]

The sharemarket has been of interest to me for 56 years.
Many of those years I had no funds to invest,but still followed it..
Made every mistake that could be made.
However I have enjoyed and still enjoy a very interesting and rewarding hobbie.

I am told by a casino friend that casino winnings are tax free under heading of " Hobby Income " ...Can share trading profits be classified under hobby income ? As u said its a rewarding hobby !!! lol

Hobby Investment is a term ??

[percy]

I am told by a casino friend that casino winnings are tax free under heading of " Hobby Income " ...Can share trading profits be classified under hobby income ? As u said its a rewarding hobby !!! lol

Hobby Investment is a term ??

Difficult questions.
I think I will take the 5th....lol

[alokdhir]

Difficult questions.
I think I will take the 5th....lol

Appreciate your honesty and very informative contributions ....U r one of the gems over here , very polite and perfect gentleman always .

Wish u well and carry on with your good work mate :t_up:

[RupertBear]

Appreciate your honesty and very informative contributions ....U r one of the gems over here , very polite and perfect gentleman always .

Wish u well and carry on with your good work mate :t_up:

I second those thoughts 100%

[sb9]

A week later into results, sp currently trading at 1.25 CD. Seems as though market still has its doubts on STU's performance.

[winner69]

Weak consents data for January said Stats NZ

And STU share price fall to multi month low

[Balance]

Weak consents data for January said Stats NZ

And STU share price fall to multi month low

Goody!

$1.00 on the way you reckon?

[percy]

Weak consents data for January said Stats NZ

And STU share price fall to multi month low

And cum 4 cents fully imputed divie.
Goes ex 22nd March.Same day I receive HGH and NZM divies.
Watching with interest.?..lol

[see weed]

Not sure it will get to $1 with such a good yld of 9.3% at $1.24.

[Poet]

Not sure it will get to $1 with such a good yld of 9.3% at $1.24.

I calculate 11.7% gross yield at $1.24

[mshierlaw]

I calculate 11.7% gross yield at $1.24

Looking at dividend history does not fill me with confidence, dividend returns are all over the place.

Some may call this a dividend trap.

[nztx]

Looking at dividend history does not fill me with confidence, dividend returns are all over the place.

Some may call this a dividend trap.


You'd be right there too, Spiral downhill to Sep 2019 ; Cap Raise to rescue things in past history, 2020 Co Fin Year - Nil Int or Final Div.

2022 sort of signalled better times, then what transpired in April 2023 Interim ?

All over the place & Div's dont' necessarily correlate with prevailing industry / or local economic conditions

The weather appears to be a bit more predictable :)

[777]

A lot of dividends were cancelled, reduced or delayed with the onset of covid in 2020. Companies being cautious at the time.

[nztx]

A lot of dividends were cancelled, reduced or delayed with the onset of covid in 2020. Companies being cautious at the time.

They were too .. many larger companies included and restraints on Finance sector put a stop / restraint on more

[percy]

STU ticks all the boxes for me.
Business got rid of dead work and right sized and fixed their balance sheet.
Now has a strong balance sheet.
Low debt.
Good cash flow.
Doing good profitable bolt on acquisitions,.
Good directors and management.
Very modest ratios together with a great fully imputed divie.
Outlook sound.

[nztx]

STU ticks all the boxes for me.
Business got rid of dead work and right sized and fixed their balance sheet.
Now has a strong balance sheet.
Low debt.
Good cash flow.
Doing good profitable bolt on acquisitions,.
Good directors and management.
Very modest ratios together with a great fully imputed divie.
Outlook sound.


I'm happy for you .. but potentially another 4.0c div in next period or may be less
on market factors they elude too, current economic climate etc - doesn't bode
well exactly as an enticing return for risk for a foray, based on the facts & history :)


possible 6.5% cash Div yield if we double Div up on current SP which has slipped a point today
and pray things go a tad better than factors may imply :)

Interesting SP graph 12m & 24m - hope I'm wrong :)

[Balance]

Need more negative postings to get the sp down to $1.00.

Forbar has stock available for shorting - who is keen to give a helping hand?

[nztx]

Need more negative postings to get the sp down to $1.00.

Forbar has stock available for shorting - who is keen to give a helping hand?


I may need another week or so for confirmation of the gradient on the slope, but the $1
target may be too generous :)

[Balance]

I may need another week or so for confirmation of the gradient on the slope, but the $1
target may be too generous :)

Do some shorting then - help the sp along.

[winner69]

Shareprice falling faster than FBUs

Isn’t it Cum 4 cent divie as well

Market couldn’t like that horrendous cash flow number and some/many bailing

[nztx]

Shareprice falling faster than FBUs

Isn’t it Cum 4 cent divie as well

Market couldn’t like that horrendous cash flow number and some/many bailing


A few more weeks of stewing away until 22 March

might be gone more than 4.0c ahead of shedding Div soon .. perhaps a multiple of it :)

but at least there's Imputation credits even if the Capital account slides deep into the red
for those still happy to endure the long and twisting journey into unknowns..

Reminds me of ARV - where punters liked the CR gifting program from the Golden Goose
@ 1.97 before the great slide down a slippery slope and almost 49% of it evaporated since ..

Wonder how many truckloads of new stock STU will send out the door in a Market where
Pricing is retreating, before they wake up that there could be some stock imPearment due on top
of the exercise to hit approaching reporting periods ? ;)

[BlackPeter]

Anybody else noticed this falling wedge, starting in January 2022?

I heard that they are bullish, but what would I know ...

[Balance]

Shareprice falling faster than FBUs

Isn’t it Cum 4 cent divie as well

Market couldn’t like that horrendous cash flow number and some/many bailing

It is indeed.

$1.00 looks like within a week or not at this rate?

[winner69]

Anybody else noticed this falling wedge, starting in January 2022?

I heard that they are bullish, but what would I know ...

Bloody heck ….the steel reinforcing not holding the fallen wedge up


Hope not a widespread problem

[winner69]

"……."

Interesting SP graph 12m & 24m - hope I'm wrong :)

Yes indeed ….down 25% from a year ago ..wow

You’d think that seeing they are doing so fantasically well and the future is so good the share price would be at least over 150 still

Maybe all the stuff in their presentations etc are just colourful stories …..keeps the believers happy but doesn’t seduce others to buy in to the fantastic story

[nztx]

Bloody heck ….the steel reinforcing not holding the fallen wedge up


Hope not a widespread problem


A worry alright .. best stay a safe distance away ..

[nztx]

Yes indeed ….down 25% from a year ago ..wow

You’d think that seeing they are doing so fantasically well and the future is so good the share price would be at least over 150 still

Maybe all the stuff in their presentations etc are just colourful stories …..keeps the believers happy but doesn’t seduce others to buy in to the fantastic story


Not the only ones that play that tune either .. there are few others with a very long history of similar antics

Just last year, weren't STU all Beer and Skittles on what they thought they were seeing ?
Rising prices, supply issues solved for them, etc etc off into future clover

Now what is coming out ?

What goes up can come down, both rapidly and deeply with some things/sectors

STU is in a sector which illustrates just that, and further have been in it long enough that
they should be smart enough to not be caught with pants down on excess stock, uncommitted stocks,
excessive stock impairments, including invisible stock at counting time etc..

The sector & industry is not only cyclical but also prone to economic, political + global factors playing into the mix, so very volatile, fluctuating , similar to some Minerals markets.

Wasn't STU a $3 or $4 stock before their large Cap Raise to fix the ship and recapitalise - in recent past that vastly increased share numbers and compensated for huge write off's ? :)

[Balance]

A worry alright .. best stay a safe distance away ..

All the better for a sp collapse, right?

You booking the stock for shorting yet?

[nztx]

https://steelandtube.co.nz/investor/media/2018/steel-tube-announces-80.9-million-capital-raising

7 Aug 2018

STEEL & TUBE ANNOUNCES $80.9 MILLION CAPITAL RAISING



• Steel & Tube is recapitalising its balance sheet to allow it to execute its business transformation

initiatives and achieve its longer term strategic objectives.

• The company is raising NZ$80.9 million via a $20.8 million Placement at $1.15 per share followed by a

fully underwritten pro rata 1 for 1.9 Rights Offer at NZ$1.05 per share.

• A bookbuild will be undertaken at the end of the Offer period for any shortfall; shareholders not taking

up their rights may receive value for their rights through this process.

• FY18 results are expected to be slightly ahead of guidance with an EBIT loss of approximately ($36.2)

million compared to ($38.0) million and normalised EBIT1 of $16.5 million, compared to $16.0 million

announced in the 23 May 2018 guidance statement.

• Given the capital raising, a final FY18 dividend will not be paid. Dividends are expected to be resumed

in FY19 consistent with Steel & Tube’s stated policy of paying 60-80% of normalised NPAT.

• FY19 EBIT guidance is of at least $25.0 million, with normalised EBIT of $35 million to $40 million

expected to be achieved in the next three years.



Steel & Tube Holdings Limited (NZX: STU) advises that it intends to raise approximately $80.9 million to

recapitalise its balance sheet and allow it to execute its business transformation initiatives and achieve its

longer term strategic objectives.



The capital will be raised by way of a $20.8 million Placement to selected institutions and other eligible

persons at $1.15 per share followed by a fully underwritten pro rata 1 for 1.9 Rights Offer at NZ$1.05 per

share and a shortfall bookbuild.



Chair of Steel & Tube, Susan Paterson, said: “We remain deeply committed to rebuilding Steel & Tube as a

leading provider of steel products and solutions in New Zealand. We have worked hard to address legacy

issues and early benefits from ‘Project Strive’ business transformation initiatives are now being seen.

“The capital raised will be used to repay debt, strengthening our balance sheet and giving us greater

flexibility to execute our strategy and deliver better value for our shareholders. In addition, we expect the

capital raising to strengthen Steel & Tube’s share register and help create liquidity which will benefit all

shareholders.”



The capital raising will significantly reduce Steel & Tube’s gearing and the company is resetting its capital

structure policy to operate with net debt of less than 2.0x normalised EBITDA. While no final dividend will

be paid for FY18, the company expects to resume dividend payments in FY19 consistent with its stated

policy of paying 60-80% of normalised NPAT.



Reflecting their commitment to Steel & Tube and confidence in the strategic direction of the company,

Directors holding shares and the CEO intend to take up their Rights under this Offer.


Article from The Scoop:

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00172/steel-tube-announces-809-million-capital-raising.htm

[Balance]

Stop posting, nztx.

Start shorting!

Sp is heading back up again, dammit!

[winner69]

Nztx ….give them their due they did deliver on this ‘promise’ - FY19 EBIT guidance is of at least $25.0 million, with normalised EBIT of $35 million to $40 million expected to be achieved in the next three years.

Good on them …some would say covid helped them

[percy]

Nztx ….give them their due they did deliver on this ‘promise’ - FY19 EBIT guidance is of at least $25.0 million, with normalised EBIT of $35 million to $40 million expected to be achieved in the next three years.

Good on them …some would say covid helped them

They are doing what they said they would do.
I expect they will keep on keeping on doing the same.
Once you start it can become a habit.

[winner69]

Anybody else noticed this falling wedge, starting in January 2022?

I heard that they are bullish, but what would I know ...


I’m struggling to see a falling wedge ….but what would I know

can you get your crayons out and draw it on a chart ….thanks

[BlackPeter]

I’m struggling to see a falling wedge ….but what would I know

can you get your crayons out and draw it on a chart ….thanks

Too hot for crayons - they are melting .... and yes, you could call it a descending triangle ... which would be not that good, wouldn't it?

Here is the best I can do free hand ... just pretend the wavy red lines are streight ...

14493

[see weed]

Too hot for crayons - they are melting .... and yes, you could call it a descending triangle ... which would be not that good, wouldn't it?

Here is the best I can do free hand ... just pretend the wavy red lines are streight ...

14493
good chart, but I am looking at 2 year chart and the lows are getting higher. It will have to go below $1.18c to break the up line of the lows going up if that makes any sense :).

[nztx]

Stop posting, nztx.

Start shorting!

Sp is heading back up again, dammit!


Just waiting see what the contrarian mob would do my friend .. poorly timed meetings
after short months .. but probably a small bounce is going to be someone elses future loss :)

[nztx]

Too hot for crayons - they are melting .... and yes, you could call it a descending triangle ... which would be not that good, wouldn't it?

Here is the best I can do free hand ... just pretend the wavy red lines are streight ...

14493


Some good examples elsewhere too BP - another certain sector exhibits same charateristics

[nztx]

Nztx ….give them their due they did deliver on this ‘promise’ - FY19 EBIT guidance is of at least $25.0 million, with normalised EBIT of $35 million to $40 million expected to be achieved in the next three years.

Good on them …some would say covid helped them


It's difficult to believe which normal is the real normal that comes into fruition

Clues to the real answers might be hidden between lines in the small print

That darn Div up and down like ..... I wont say .. doesn't look too encouraging
or exactly inspiring no matter what excuse gets trotted out and waved around
even if they have had to grease the Taxman's palm a bit now to get there :)

Does anyone remember what the shareprice of this outfit was a while before the 2018/19
carnage, write offs & losses and then stakeholder rescue came along ?

[Balance]

Lousy effort today with the negative postings - sp actually ended up.

Try harder tomorrow.

Help a mate here who is most anxious to have a third bite at this cherry.

[winner69]

A worry alright .. best stay a safe distance away ..

Yep nztx - even STU management are telling punters to stay away

They said 'Steel demand is expected to moderate as economic conditions impact on businesses and across a broad range of sectors.'

That's code/management speak for things getting tough and profit downgrades likely over the the next few months ....but we are hoping like hell that somehow we'll scrape through

[percy]

CEO of Steel & Tube, Mark Malpass, commented: “Following the recent ‘super cycle’, we are well positioned to respond to moderating demand. We have a strong balance sheet and cashflows, and are actively managing costs and margins per tonne. Customer and employee satisfaction remains at high levels and we are a preferred supplier for projects large and small across a diverse range of industries. Our recent growth investments are performing well and we are continuing to assess new opportunities that complement our existing business and provide growth pathways.”

That is code for "well positioned".
Can not ask for more.

[nztx]

CEO of Steel & Tube, Mark Malpass, commented: “Following the recent ‘super cycle’, we are well positioned to respond to moderating demand. We have a strong balance sheet and cashflows, and are actively managing costs and margins per tonne. Customer and employee satisfaction remains at high levels and we are a preferred supplier for projects large and small across a diverse range of industries. Our recent growth investments are performing well and we are continuing to assess new opportunities that complement our existing business and provide growth pathways.”

That is code for "well positioned".
Can not ask for more.


"Super Cyclical" demonstrated by past dividend patterns & "what comes after a Super Cycle" come to mind ;)

With the whole market appearing to have caught a slight cold of late and even the Politicians having gone into hiding when it has come to fronting up with something in past week, what could possibly go wrong ? ;)

They undoubtedly may have thought they were well positioned prior to the 2018/19 LOSS and subsequent dilutionary CAP RAISE and look what happened, which was needed to rescue the ship..


A better candidate for well positioned would have to be Vulcan Steel, or even FBU who once had STU
on it's meal menu at a much higher SP value than STU have managed to reach since ;)


If the chips really go down in a bad way and the local economy descends into an even worse state,
then it's not inconceivable that further red ink could emblazon the reports, and with that SP's well into sub $1.00 territory .. it has been there before, a little more than 2 years or so ago ;)

[winner69]

"Super Cyclical" as demonstrated by past dividend patterns ; and "what comes after a Super Cycle" come to mind ;)

With the whole market appearing to have caught a slight cold of late and even the Politicians having gone into hiding when it has come to fronting up with something in past week, what could possibly go wrong ? ;)

hey nztx - so it wouldn't be a surprise to read in a few months something like this -



'As we forewarned when announcing our half years result in February steel demand has significantly moderated as economic conditions impact on businesses and across a broad range of sectors.

CEO Mark Malpass commented that the degree of moderation has 'surprised him' and as such we expect to report a 20% sales drop in the second half and we expect full year EBIT (normalised) to be about $35m (FY22 $48m). Unfortunately F23 will not be another record year'

[nztx]

hey nztx - so it wouldn't be a surprise to read in a few months something like this -



'As we forewarned when announcing our half years result in February steel demand has significantly moderated as economic conditions impact on businesses and across a broad range of sectors.

CEO Mark Malpass commented that the degree of moderation has 'surprised him' and as such we expect to report a 20% sales drop in the second half and we expect full year EBIT (normalised) to be about $35m (FY22 $48m). Unfortunately F23 will not be another record year'

Not at all surprised.

Has there been a deterioration in conditions since then ?

How about larger infrastructure projects being shelved and funding diverted to Disaster repairs
with obvious long delays in that based on volume

Industry & Commerce has taken a massive hit in places out of disasters

Primary affected too

Will there be much in large new infrastructure and expansions going forwards
apart from say bridge replacements etc ?

I dont see primary processors / exporters affected doing much expansion activity
on reduced export volumes - where affected by these disasters and there could be
a long lead time towards even recovering their volumes to what they were

The economy is likely to take a fair while to recover from a short sequence of large disasters

Where does this leave STU out of all this - and past what they have put out in their earlier announcements ?

Tell me I'm wrong :)


Best not tell those hanging in for the Div later in the month that things may go badly further south
after shedding the little payout, heading on towards next market update / reporting .. :)

[nztx]

Interesting STU Share price History:

Low $1.20 on 17 Mar 2000 - climb up to $5.14 on 4 Mar 2005

From $4.26 on 6 Jul 2007 - slide down to $1.96 on 24 Dec 2010

Retrace to $2.95 on 21 Feb 2013

Then slope downhill to $0.63 on 26 June 2020

Slight retrace up to $1.63 on 21 Jan 2022

before losing steam to current $1.20's levels


Dividend History:

31.3.16 9.0 cps Int (100% Imp)
30.9.16 13.5 cps Fin (100% Imp)

2016 Totals 22.5 cps Full IMP

31.3.17 9.0 cps Int (100% Imp)
29.9.17 7.0 cps Fin (100% Imp)

2017 Totals 16.0 cps Full IMP

29.3.18 7.0 cps Int (100% Imp)
27.9.18 FIN Dividend Suspended

2018 Totals 7.00 cps Full IMP

29.3.19 3.5 cps Int (100% Imp)
27.9.19 1.5 cps Int (100% Imp)

2019 Totals 5.00 cps Full IMP

27.3.20 INT - No Div / Cancelled
27.9.20 FIN - Nil Declared

2020 Totals NIL cps Nil IMP

26.3.21 1.5 cps Int (NIL Imp)
24.9.21 3.29 cps Fin (NIL Imp)

2021 Totals 4.79 cps NIL IMP

25.3.22 5.0 cps Int (NIL Imp)
23.9.22 7.5 cps Fin (50% Imp)

2022 Totals 12.5 cps PART IMP

6.4.23 4.0 cps Int (100% Imp)

[Perky]

STU outperforming it’s peers as at end of FEB

From business desk

Fletcher Building fell 6.3% to end the month at $4.75, disappointing investors with an earnings downgrade. Fellow building products firms also struggled in the months, with Vulcan Steel down 7.3% at $9.87, and Steel & Tube declining 3.8% to $1.27.

so you could be wrong? Time will tell.

[nztx]

STU outperforming it’s peers as at end of FEB

From business desk

Fletcher Building fell 6.3% to end the month at $4.75, disappointing investors with an earnings downgrade. Fellow building products firms also struggled in the months, with Vulcan Steel down 7.3% at $9.87, and Steel & Tube declining 3.8% to $1.27.

so you could be wrong? Time will tell.


I'll let you know -- you could owe me a nice cup of percolated yet :)

[winner69]

Good stuff nztx but a picture explains it better

Seems to be in a long term downtrend

Suppose nobody regrets that the takeover at $1.90 a share didn't happen in 2018 .... they still own a company with great potential and delivering on promises

No worries that's all in the rear view mirror and as we knpw the markets are forward looking

[winner69]

STU outperforming it’s peers as at end of FEB

From business desk

Fletcher Building fell 6.3% to end the month at $4.75, disappointing investors with an earnings downgrade. Fellow building products firms also struggled in the months, with Vulcan Steel down 7.3% at $9.87, and Steel & Tube declining 3.8% to $1.27.

so you could be wrong? Time will tell.

All losers

Market telling us something here

And STU hasn't had it's earnings downgrade yet

[nztx]

Good stuff nztx but a picture explains it better

Seems to be in a long term downtrend

Suppose nobody regrets that the takeover at $1.90 a share didn't happen in 2018 .... they still own a company with great potential and delivering on promises

No worries that's all in the rear view mirror and as we knpw the markets are forward looking

Dont forget there is the large Cap Raise rescue job in 2018/19 that they did.

The forward looking hints are probably enough of a warning with STU, possibly an opportunity going
forwards, but not just yet.

Couldn't reduce the Int April 2023 Div too much could they, or the SP could have really sagged,
so those tidings look like they've been deferred for later Trading Update or H2 with prospect of a leaner
Spring payout as things possibly deteriorate further in near election times .. maybe hoping the
announcement may get lost in political / electioneering noise everywhere ..

[Balance]

Stop posting and start shorting, nztx.

Help a mate out.

[winner69]

Dont forget there is the large Cap Raise rescue job in 2018/19 that they did.

The forward looking hints are probably enough of a warning with STU, possibly an opportunity going
forwards, but not just yet.

Couldn't reduce the Int April 2023 Div too much could they, or the SP could have really sagged,
so those tidings look like they've been deferred for later Trading Update or H2 with prospect of a leaner
Spring payout as things possibly deteriorate further in near election times .. maybe hoping the
announcement may get lost in political / electioneering noise everywhere ..

No reduction likely in divie nztx

The way it works is they say 'we are well positioned and confident of a good future. Our balance sheet is strong so decent divie will still be comng' and then head of to bank to borrow some cash to pay for it

Pretty clever eh so no worries

[see weed]

The new low for this year is only $1.22c and looking like good support around 1.20.

[Balance]

Reasonable effort today to get the sp back towards $1.00.

Keep up the negative postings, nztx and W69.

And nztx, surely you will be shorting given your view? Help a mate out.

[Baa_Baa]

Reasonable effort today to get the sp back towards $1.00.

Keep up the negative postings, nztx and W69.

And nztx, surely you will be shorting given your view? Help a mate out.

nztx has never disclosed anything that he/she/it is invested in, preferring to fly around the all threads as the "hawk in the bay" ****ting on everything, more like a seagull, with the weirdest posting style i've ever seen. I doubt they even have any shares let alone sophisticated enough to know how or when to short-sell. It's doubtful imo that anyone would take them seriously, let alone move a market, lol.

[nztx]

nztx has never disclosed anything that he/she/it is invested in, preferring to fly around the all threads as the "hawk in the bay" ****ting on everything, more like a seagull, with the weirdest posting style i've ever seen. I doubt they even have any shares let alone sophisticated enough to know how or when to short-sell. It's doubtful imo that anyone would take them seriously, let alone move a market, lol.


You haven't been watching closely enough - my friend :)

my investing disciplines & policies are serving me well in recent and current times..

[winner69]

Hey BP - I drew some lines with my electronic crayons on the STU chart as below

Google says it is a Symmetrical Triangle and the price has 'broken down' through the triangle

Explanation I read ws a bit hard to follow but it seems to say that traders would be looking a new low of 75 cents (price went up from about 100 to 150 or 50 cents and could fall by 50 cents when it broke down at say 125)

But heck what do I know about real TA .... doesn't look pretty though

[Balance]

Hey BP - I drew some lines with my electronic crayons on the STU chart as below

Google says it is a Symmetrical Triangle and the price has 'broken down' through the triangle

Explanation I read ws a bit hard to follow but it seems to say that traders would be looking a new low of 75 cents (price went up from about 100 to 150 or 50 cents and could fall by 50 cents when it broke down at say 125)

But heck what do I know about real TA .... doesn't look pretty though

Fall 50c? Certainly hope so!

Now you are really writing the good stuff, W69!

[Balance]

All that’s needed now is for nztx to start shorting.

Help a mate out.

[Rawz]

All that’s needed now is for nztx to start shorting.

Help a mate out.
Why short STU when there are plenty of multi baggers on the asx ;)

[nztx]

Why short STU when there are plenty of multi baggers on the asx ;)


I've been careful not to tell Baa Baa about them :)

If I did overlook ND policy and report them, then he/she might get overly excited and
suddenly elude to fact they were looking at the wrong treasure map ..

[nztx]

All that’s needed now is for nztx to start shorting.

Help a mate out.


Mate - if both of us land on this one at once it could descend below 37c

W-69 would be left dismayed that his crayons weren't accurate enough too

A respectable bag requires W69 to find a glimmer of hope for some more thermals before a large dive :)

[winner69]

Done some study

Mr Bullkowski https://thepatternsite.com/st.html pretty clever with his things

He would reckon the break down by STU will go down to 106

Not that bad ..let’s run with that eh

[see weed]

Mate - if both of us land on this one at once it could descend below 37c

W-69 would be left dismayed that his crayons weren't accurate enough too

A respectable bag requires W69 to find a glimmer of hope for some more thermals before a large dive :)
There seems to be a lot of support between 1.20 and 1.23. The YLD at 1.24 is 10.48%. As you push sp down the YLD goes up, so if sp went down to 1.15 the YLD would be around 11.3%. I would assume lots more investors would start to come on board at around 1.15 to 1.20. It might be a bit risky to try and short it a few cents when there would be so much support. I can understand shorting ATM a couple years back with about $15 to be made in shorting compared to 10c or 15c to be made from shorting STU. And as I mentioned the div and yld chasers coming in and supporting sp well before you get to $1.06 or $1.15. I suppose it comes down to who has the most money to invest the shorters or the yld hunters. Question 1...Would you be investing $1000s, $10,000s or $1,000,000s to short STU Question 2...Would this be happening before or after ex div day...If it was me I would start on ex div day. Question 3...You don't have to answer Question 1 if you don't want to

[winner69]

Hope whatever Vulcan caught today isn’t contagious

Média market roundup said it had one of its biggest single-day falls ever

[Balance]

Hope whatever Vulcan caught today isn’t contagious

Média market roundup said it had one of its biggest single-day falls ever

Goody!

Or is it a case of Vulcan shareholders switching over to STU?

[nztx]

Just staggering along at $1.24 until 22 March, then it sheds the generous 4.0 cps plus Imputation cream on top .. and then then what ? ;)

Everyone loses interest ..

shouldn't that very nice slope since 13 Feb be the other way round, if punters were all 100%
confident medium / long term ? ;)

Let's face it - losing elevation coming up to Div doesn't appear right - as for after ?

[Balance]

Just staggering along at $1.24 until 22 March, then it sheds the generous 4.0 cps plus Imputation cream on top .. and then then what ? ;)

Everyone loses interest ..

shouldn't that very nice slope since 13 Feb be the other way round, if punters were all 100%
confident medium / long term ? ;)

Let's face it - losing elevation coming up to Div doesn't appear right - as for after ?

Started shorting yet, nztx?

Courage of conviction is what you lack - too much talk and no action.

Help out a mate here.

[Balance]

Started shorting yet, nztx?

Courage of conviction is what you lack - too much talk and no action.

Help out a mate here.

Sp heading higher - all the better for you to short, nztx.

Old timer told me years ago that amateurs make the mistake of shorting shares as they go lower. Should do it as they go higher.

[nztx]

Sp heading higher - all the better for you to short, nztx.

Old timer told me years ago that amateurs make the mistake of shorting shares as they go lower. Should do it as they go higher.


Still just watching .. must be some taste out there for that 4.0c imputed payout before 22nd is upon us

Might be enough time for a play elsewhere, until everyone realised that dividend lunchtime is gone

[winner69]

Jeez .. one of big losers on NZX today …in bottom five

In good company though …My Food Bag was a bigger loser

[nztx]

Jeez .. one of big losers on NZX today …in bottom five

In good company though …My Food Bag was a bigger loser


Jeez and still a couple of weeks away until it sheds the dividend..

What will tomorrow see ? ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez .. one of big losers on NZX today …in bottom five

In good company though …My Food Bag was a bigger loser

It has dropped below that symmetrical triangle you pointed out (log scale) and the 38.2% FIB retrace from the Covid lows. Next support is 1.18 the June 2022 low, not too far from 1.20 July 2021 high. In any event, this is a steady decline, ~28% from the Jan 2022 high 1.70.

[sb9]

It has dropped below that symmetrical triangle you pointed out (log scale) and the 38.2% FIB retrace from the Covid lows. Next support is 1.18 the June 2022 low, not too far from 1.20 July 2021 high. In any event, this is a steady decline, ~28% from the Jan 2022 high 1.70.

Looking bit ominous here from TA perspective...

[Balance]

Looking bit ominous here from TA perspective...

Heading towards $1.00 - ideal!

[Entrep]

The old "I hope it goes down more so I can buy more" never ends well. Most often seen on Hotcopper.

[Balance]

The old "I hope it goes down more so I can buy more" never ends well. Most often seen on Hotcopper.

Agreed 100%. Empty and foolish bravado talk .

As for hotcopper, best to not comment!

Best to be completely out and wait for the likes of W69 and nztx to scare the stock into bargain basement territory.

Here’s looking at nztx doing some shorting.

[nztx]

Agreed 100%. Empty and foolish bravado talk .

As for hotcopper, best to not comment!

Best to be completely out and wait for the likes of W69 and nztx to scare the stock into bargain basement territory.

Here’s looking at nztx doing some shorting.


The extent of red ink seen today on NZX boards might in itself be enough to scare many, without any
additional help .. but I'm watching :)

Easy enuff to score on the way down as it is traversing up again, but might be better potential bags elsewhere :)

Have an eye on a potential 20-30 bagger which is looking promising .. far far away from NZX :)

How could I overlook something that represents at least 1500 years of STU 4.0c dividends in one swoop ?

[Rawz]

The extent of red ink seen today on NZX boards might in itself be enough to scare many, without any
additional help .. but I'm watching :)

Easy enuff to score on the way down as it is traversing up again, but might be better potential bags elsewhere :)

Have an eye on a potential 20-30 bagger which is looking promising .. far far away from NZX :)

How could I overlook something that represents at least 1500 years of STU 4.0c dividends in one swoop ?

What’s the ticker of the 20-30 bagger

[Balance]

The extent of red ink seen today on NZX boards might in itself be enough to scare many, without any
additional help .. but I'm watching :)

Easy enuff to score on the way down as it is traversing up again, but might be better potential bags elsewhere :)

Have an eye on a potential 20-30 bagger which is looking promising .. far far away from NZX :)

How could I overlook something that represents at least 1500 years of STU 4.0c dividends in one swoop ?

Different risk profile for yours truly here.

I am there for size at $1.00 when and if W69 & you can massage STU to that level. To be revealed!

Will be my third helping with this hugely profitable stock.

[nztx]

Different risk profile for yours truly here.

I am there for size at $1.00 when and if W69 & you can massage STU to that level. To be revealed!

Will be my third helping with this hugely profitable stock.


I dont know .. telltale hints of possible downside reading between the lines of announcements released

A 2023 4.0c final might be on generous side .. for the risk 75c maybe or lower with the way
markets and economy are heading .. but who knows :)

Once the slide happens to $1.00, 50c is in sight - this thing can be volatile once revealed the chips may be down, dividend dunked, then what ? - another 2-3 years to slowly rise again ? ;)

You may bank on a bounce, but the next bounce might be some time off ..

[percy]

New data from Stats NZ showed the value of sales in construction was up by 14 per cent or $1b on the December 2021 quarter.

[nztx]

New data from Stats NZ showed the value of sales in construction was up by 14 per cent or $1b on the December 2021 quarter.


4 full quarters and a bit more ago .. ?

what's happened since ? :)

[Muse]

4 full quarters and a bit more ago .. ?

what's happened since ? :)

14% growth from the looks of percy’s post lol

[winner69]

New data from Stats NZ showed the value of sales in construction was up by 14 per cent or $1b on the December 2021 quarter.

The Stats NZ report says 20% percy

n value terms (not adjusted for price changes or seasonal effects), the actual value of building work was $9.3 billion in the December 2022 quarter, up 20 percent from the December 2021 quarter.


https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/value-of-building-work-put-in-place-december-2022-quarter/

What recession .... but then markets are supposedly pretty good at looking into the future

[nztx]

The Stats NZ report says 20% percy

n value terms (not adjusted for price changes or seasonal effects), the actual value of building work was $9.3 billion in the December 2022 quarter, up 20 percent from the December 2021 quarter.


https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/value-of-building-work-put-in-place-december-2022-quarter/

What recession .... but then markets are supposedly pretty good at looking into the future

Indeed they usually are .. but why is the market loosing altitude ?

The window of building work from what I have heard probably only has another 9 months of reasonable orders

then what - lower demand , then wait for repair & rebuild from the most recent storm whenever that might happen
with waiting for assessments, insurance etc ..

Why are builders still falling over citing fixed contracts and rising materials costs, if all is honky dory ?

Taper in falling market value for property, steeper interest costs, harder economic times, storm crisis .. where's it all headed ? ;)

Stats are a window on the past, not what necessarily lies ahead ..

If all was fine, then why are FBU falling, STU headed down to $1 or less, Vulcan similarly headed down,
Property & RH Sectors all generally losing altitude ?

[percy]

The Stats NZ report says 20% percy

n value terms (not adjusted for price changes or seasonal effects), the actual value of building work was $9.3 billion in the December 2022 quarter, up 20 percent from the December 2021 quarter.


https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/value-of-building-work-put-in-place-december-2022-quarter/

What recession .... but then markets are supposedly pretty good at looking into the future

Thanks W69.
Pretty good momentum.
Auckland and Hawks Bay floods should keep the sector buoyant for the next couple of years.

[Balance]

Thanks W69.
Pretty good momentum.
Auckland and Hawks Bay floods should keep the sector buoyant for the next couple of years.

Goes against the narrative being pushed by W69 and nztx!

STU can only go one way according to them - down and down.

And I hope they are right.

[winner69]

Often look at company reports/reports through a “customer lens” and more often than not say to myself what a load of crap when they rave about how good they are.

Haven’t had any direct dealing with STU for a while but when a mate said he dealt with STU I showed him the half year results presentation and guess what he said …..’ha ha, if only. Whoever put that together must have big egos”

[Sideshow Bob]

I would say that STU aren't the only company to do that W69!! Most would be guilty of gilding the lilly to a greater or lesser degree....

[Balance]

I would say that STU aren't the only company to do that W69!! Most would be guilty of gilding the lilly to a greater or lesser degree....

Let W69 continue please!

STU’s sp need to head down towards $1.00.

Where is nztx? Sp going up on a dead cat bounce is a good time to short!

[nztx]

Let W69 continue please!

STU’s sp need to head down towards $1.00.

Where is nztx? Sp going up on a dead cat bounce is a good time to short!


75c - my friend ;)

[winner69]

Still cum div isn’t it?

[Balance]

75c - my friend ;)

All the more reason for you to short and help out a mate.

[nztx]

Still cum div isn’t it?


Yep 22/3 goes Ex Div .. just lost the equivalent of the Div in today's fall so far by looks

[nztx]

All the more reason for you to short and help out a mate.


Might be doing you a favour by not going short, as a bounce may not happen

[Balance]

Might be doing you a favour by not going short, as a bounce may not happen

Let me worry about that.

You make money with your conviction first.

Help out a mate while helping yourself to a ‘sure’ thing.

[nztx]

Let me worry about that.

You make money with your conviction first.

Help out a mate while helping yourself to a ‘sure’ thing.


Mate .. after such a sterling run, I really wouldn't want a bar of seeing you then part with some of it ..

besides, now we are down to the $1.20 mark .. and bound to be a bit more slip slide after 22 Mar too.

Times, they are volatile, and the Red is engulfing the Green like no-one could have believed

These STU guys are going to be working hard trying to throw stuff out the door and even harder
trying to minimise what it is costing to quit higher cost lines in the warehouse ;)

[Muse]

nztx has never disclosed anything that he/she/it is invested in, preferring to fly around the all threads as the "hawk in the bay" ****ting on everything, more like a seagull, with the weirdest posting style i've ever seen. I doubt they even have any shares let alone sophisticated enough to know how or when to short-sell. It's doubtful imo that anyone would take them seriously, let alone move a market, lol.

Baa Baa - I salute you.

[Balance]

STU sp going back up.

Where’s W69 and nztx!!!!!

Help a mate out here!

[winner69]

STU sp going back up.

Where’s W69 and nztx!!!!!

Help a mate out here!

We got told to bugger off in no uncertain terms ..not wanted on this thread

Hope you get your $1.00 target sooner than later ..and then we can say ‘always good buying around a buck’

[Balance]

We got told to bugger off in no uncertain terms ..not wanted on this thread

Hope you get your $1.00 target sooner than later ..and then we can say ‘always good buying around a buck’

Not me.

Please continue with your efforts - it was working!

[see weed]

We got told to bugger off in no uncertain terms ..not wanted on this thread

Hope you get your $1.00 target sooner than later ..and then we can say ‘always good buying around a buck’
I would like to buy more at $1. But with such a good yld over 10% I don't know if it would go that low. The sp has hit the yearly low of 1.18 on 10+13/3/23 but has still closed at 1.22 for the last 4 days and closed on 1.25 today. There appears to be a bit of support around the 1.19 and 1.22 mark. Maybe wait to after ex div day to buy back in. In my case I am getting 3 times the amount of yld with STU than what the banks giving me. I am very tempted to look at getting more after ex div day. There might be lot of building repair work coming up with insurance claims. Anyway ex div in one week and see how it all pans out after that.

[Balance]

I have to admit that I am disappointed that the fine efforts of W69 and nztx have not provided sufficient encouragement for loose holders to sell out.

Maybe they are gone already?

Here’s hoping they are not. A few bad days on the Dow should see them surface.

[see weed]

I have to admit that I am disappointed that the fine efforts of W69 and nztx have not provided sufficient encouragement for loose holders to sell out.

Maybe they are gone already?

Here’s hoping they are not. A few bad days on the Dow should see them surface.
Your wish may come true today. The Dow J is down over 600 as I type. But, for me more likely to buy more on any dips. The yld is too good to ignore.

[nztx]

2 more business days to go after today until STU goes ex Div .. then what ? :)

[BlackPeter]

2 more business days to go after today until STU goes ex Div .. then what ? :)

It will be free of the ballast and shoot up into the sky to compete with the hawk :p ;

[winner69]

The 116 just a blip

Still not late for 4 cent divie

Jeez …share price back to 125 by Easter gives you that 4 cent divie plus 9 cents capital gain in a few weeks

Annualised that’s a HUGE return

[850man]

Not a lot propping it up right now 14519

[percy]

Not a lot propping it up right now 14519

I bought a few.Av cost $1.1582 per share cum div.
Drops much further I may buy a few more.

[nztx]

It will be free of the ballast and shoot up into the sky to compete with the hawk :p ;


coming your way instead BP :)

freefall a possibility

[Balance]

The 116 just a blip

Still not late for 4 cent divie

Jeez …share price back to 125 by Easter gives you that 4 cent divie plus 9 cents capital gain in a few weeks

Annualised that’s a HUGE return

Good to see you back W69! Thought you were serious about keeping clear of STU.

Need another big push by you to get it to $1.00.

I was hoping to get some yesterday as many would have seen my truck backed up at $1.01.

[Balance]

coming your way instead BP :)

freefall a possibility

A possibility?

A certainty, surely!

More effort required - get shorting nztx! Help out a mate!

[winner69]

STU gone ex-div yet

[ithaka]

STU gone ex-div yet
Ex dividend today
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/STU/dividends

[777]

This may help you winner

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/dividends

Sorted by ex date

[nztx]

Oh dear $1.11 .. better pay another div next month to stop the bottom falling out of things ..

[see weed]

Good to see you back W69! Thought you were serious about keeping clear of STU.

Need another big push by you to get it to $1.00.

I was hoping to get some yesterday as many would have seen my truck backed up at $1.01.
Don't know if it will get to a dollar looks like someone has backed their truck up at 1.10, is that you Balance Looks like we have a new yearly low of 1.11.

[Balance]

Oh dear $1.11 .. better pay another div next month to stop the bottom falling out of things ..

Pathetic effort by nztx.

WHERE is the $1.00 you said STU is heading to?

[BlackPeter]

Pathetic effort by nztx.

WHERE is the $1.00 you said STU is heading to?

I wonder that as well. More than happy to buy around $1, but it appears NZTX clearly can't be trusted - he is tooting out target prices and then nothing happens.

[see weed]

Pathetic effort by nztx.

WHERE is the $1.00 you said STU is heading to?
Maybe $1.11 is the new $1. With inflation running so high. Remember what a dollar bought you one year ago now costs you $1.11. If sh don't want to sell sp will not go down.

[Balance]

I wonder that as well. More than happy to buy around $1, but it appears NZTX clearly can't be trusted - he is tooting out target prices and then nothing happens.

I had my truck backed up at $1.01 and nothing happened!

[winner69]

I had my truck backed up at $1.01 and nothing happened!

As long as seeweed and percy et al are supporting the share price you'll never see $1.01 mate

nztx trying hard but they are strong opponents

[nztx]

As long as seeweed and percy et al are supporting the share price you'll never see $1.01 mate

nztx trying hard but they are strong opponents


You never know .. STU just need to trot out a "Warehouse" style announcement & sub $1 could be reality :)

[nztx]

I had my truck backed up at $1.01 and nothing happened!


Drifting drifting southwards $1.13 now .. good things come to those who are patient :)

[Balance]

Drifting drifting southwards $1.13 now .. good things come to those who are patient :)

Going back up again - another opportunity for you to start shorting and help out a mate.

Have some courage of conviction, nztx or are you all talk and no action?

[winner69]

A few shares at days end and it closes at 113

Next we’ll be getting calls that the price is being manipulated

[nztx]

A few shares at days end and it closes at 113

Next we’ll be getting calls that the price is being manipulated

it wasn't me :)

better shorts elsewhere ..

[Balance]

it wasn't me :)

better shorts elsewhere ..

Like which better shorts?

[see weed]

Like which better shorts?
I have got some really good shorts and am still wearing them from Just Jeans, and they are good quality.

[Balance]

I have got some really good shorts and am still wearing them from Just Jeans, and they are good quality.

nztx likes stubbies - exposing himself?

[BlackPeter]

I have got some really good shorts and am still wearing them from Just Jeans, and they are good quality.

Post of the day! :t_up:

[winner69]

Close at 107 today

Black Peter a genius identifying that triangle pattern a while ago. Then TA guru Bullkowski would have said the break down by STU will go down to 106

Nearly at Bullkowsl’s target …a bit to go to get to nztx target of 100 …but then another TA guru would say 75 cents.

Way share price going might get to 75 cents …but I’d say unlikely but sub 100 definitely on.

[Balance]

Goody!!!!

Bring $1.00 on!

75c? Now that would suggest something rusting in the NZ steel industry!!!! Any inkling of that, W69?

[nztx]

Goody!!!!

Bring $1.00 on!

75c? Now that would suggest something rusting in the NZ steel industry!!!! Any inkling of that, W69?


How often does the rust appear - every 4 or 5 years of recent times ? :)

[Balance]

How often does the rust appear - every 4 or 5 years of recent times ? :)

You are all talk and zero action.

Just like NATO.

Time waster.

[nztx]

You are all talk and zero action.

Just like NATO.

Time waster.


Good action elsewhere

Wrong section for time wasters is it not ? :)

[Jaa]

You are all talk and zero action.

Just like NATO.

Time waster.

If as many people want STU products as want to join NATO shareholders will be rich. :t_up:

[nztx]

If as many people want STU products as want to join NATO shareholders will be rich. :t_up:


At just a Buck 10 .. he might be busy steeling away some more :)

[Entrep]

https://media.giphy.com/media/lptjRBxFKCJmFoibP3/giphy-downsized.gif

Gotta love that fat divvy hitting the bank account!

[Balance]

If as many people want STU products as want to join NATO shareholders will be rich. :t_up:

NATO = No Action Talk Only

[nztx]

NATO = No Action Talk Only


but no talk and you've already seen plenty of downwards action - surely ? ;)

is it time to buy yet ? :)


or will either of Adrian Orr-Some or Gobbo Robbo put their foot in it again ?

[RTM]

Goody!!!!

Bring $1.00 on!

75c? Now that would suggest something rusting in the NZ steel industry!!!! Any inkling of that, W69?

Getting closer.

105 ¢ -2 -1.9%

[winner69]

Media market close report today … Steel & Tube gained 2c or 1.94% to $1.05;

That’s good news

See our Mark doing another rave at a NZX Virtual Investor event next week.

Last time he did that the shareprice was over $1.50 ……..hope he does a real good rave this time …..STU needs all the ramping it can get

[Balance]

Media market close report today … Steel & Tube gained 2c or 1.94% to $1.05;

That’s good news

See our Mark doing another rave at a NZX Virtual Investor event next week.

Last time he did that the shareprice was over $1.50 ……..hope he does a real good rave this time …..STU needs all the ramping it can get

Bugger!

It was drifting down nicely towards $1.00.

Need some scary postings from you, W69.

Any bad charts you can post to show the stock heading towards 75c?