PDA

View Full Version : STU - Steel & Tube Holdings



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

melsmith90210
09-02-2005, 09:32 AM
This stock has jumped in the last 2 days, after doing nothing for a while yet I can' find anything to suggest why?

Anybody know?

fundir
09-02-2005, 09:52 AM
investors have been a bit scared of a slow down in the construction sector, fbu today has showed that things are going along gang-busters at the moment and with comercial taking over from residential it doesn't look like it will slow down any time soon.

Don't forget that once commericial slows down there will still be a large amount of public works construction, and that, if anything will use even more steel....

Lawso
09-02-2005, 01:31 PM
Up 20c so far today to 520. STU doubtless coat-tailing FBU to some degree.

After a break of five years I bought back into STU in September @ 452. Now showing a 29.2% gain + 15c final div.

The P.O.D.
09-02-2005, 05:24 PM
That's an 18% return including the div.

where do you get 29.2% from?

3-4 years ago when STU was sitting on $1.30 and had a tiny p/e, I looked at it for a long time and then decided against it. Probably been one of the most untalked about stocks in that time but has shown legs.

Lawso
09-02-2005, 06:58 PM
Sorry.

BRICKS
02-04-2009, 03:20 PM
BRICKS visited STU today and is most impressed with the outcome well maintained buildings
not like the old days they are taking a bit of a beating just at present but the two things going for them One Steel wants to BUY & they pay DIVIDENDS..

macduffy
02-04-2009, 05:28 PM
Yes, I agree with that.

STU is one of my income stocks and a classic cyclical IMO.
Ideally, I should be lightening off at the peak of the cycle ( SP and economic activity) and loading up at times like these. I never do, of course, but it's still a good earner even when times are tight.
Might still buy a few more but there are so many other girls to kiss and I'm still only grudgingly parting with my cash.

;)

STRAT
02-04-2009, 05:55 PM
so many other girls to kiss and I'm still only grudgingly parting with my cash.

;)Now thats a business idea Macduffy now that its legal to get paid for kisses? :D

macduffy
02-04-2009, 06:32 PM
Now thats a business idea Macduffy now that its legal to get paid for kisses? :D

Hi STRAT.

No, not a business idea so I can't cut you in on it I'm afraid.

:D

Just a mixed up use of the old investment axiom ..... "You can't kiss all the girls."

;)

Phaedrus
01-05-2009, 02:18 PM
STU from $2.50 to $3.00 in a week on lightish volume. Well above the MA100 now. It still appears to me to be in a mid/long term downtrend with a possible short term break out. Any wiser (than my own) TA thoughts?There is not much that can be added to your comments, YK. You have covered the important facts such as the low volume - today's big rise to $3 was on just 1911 shares, for example.
I have not plotted my usual raft of supplementary indicators on this chart because STU is in a consolidation zone and in such circumstances trend indicators just give a series of contradictory signals. The 100 ma cross you mention has no significance - price action has risen above it 6 times so far during the course of this wide trading range.
For STU to break its longterm (4 year) downtrend, the shareprice would need to go above the Resistance at $3.80. That is well above current price action and would mean a fairly late entry. The break of the current confirmed short-term trendline would make for a more timely signal for those wanting to buy.
I would see a retreat to the support at $2.50 as a buying opportunity.

The break of the 5 year uptrend gave a timely trendline-break Sell signal, getting you out of STU before you gave a lot of profits back to the market. A nice example of why a staunch "buy and hold" approach is a bad idea!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/STU51.gif

macduffy
01-05-2009, 04:59 PM
IMO it's just a matter of time before STU's major shareholder takes them out.
Now would be a good time to do that but doubtful whether Onesteel ( or is it Bluescope?) has the cash to do so.
Meanwhile, it's a nice little divvy payer with potential for a bit of capital gain eventually.

Grimy
21-05-2010, 06:25 PM
And me at $2.53. Haven't looked at it today. Too busy buying and selling other stuff!

Phaedrus
21-05-2010, 08:00 PM
It's wonderful to see that long term support has held firmly at $2.50.Yes, it really is remarkable how that level has held strong over the years - especially through the current turmoil. I don't think there are any really safe havens, but if there were, STU would have to be on the list.
There is no great insight to be gained from the chart apart from viewing the support. It's good that the OBV seems to have stopped falling, but the recent trendline break "buy" signal was caused by the OBV crabbing sideways rather than by a definitive rise so it should be ignored.
If I were in your situation, I would be inclined to hold on to my $2.57 - $2.58 STU and delay buying more until the global situation settles a little. This is a very good time to be holding cash. Here's a thought for you - maybe when you do buy, you would do better investing in something that had been severely beaten down, rather than adding to your STU investment - a stock you already hold at a good price and one that has not been hammered.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/STU521-1.gif

Lizard
12-08-2010, 04:12 PM
Now $2.15. FY result out today and puts it on P/E of about 19. Not that they're in bad shape, just a great example of a cyclical. Heavily dependent on capex, especially in commercial building and rural (dairy sheds). Hard to see much pick up for a while. In another year or so, maybe everyone will have forgotten about how much money they make in a boom and it will be time to buy. After all, they are "well-positioned for the future", eh Percy? ;)

percy
12-08-2010, 04:36 PM
Now $2.15. FY result out today and puts it on P/E of about 19. Not that they're in bad shape, just a great example of a cyclical. Heavily dependent on capex, especially in commercial building and rural (dairy sheds). Hard to see much pick up for a while. In another year or so, maybe everyone will have forgotten about how much money they make in a boom and it will be time to buy. After all, they are "well-positioned for the future", eh Percy? ;)

You are as allways, exactly right Lizard.Well run company,with strong balance sheet.A good company to have on watch list.

Vtrader
07-02-2011, 09:42 PM
looks like a trendbreak on price today percy,
no volume support and other indicators yet to fire also.
V.

percy
08-02-2011, 06:48 AM
looks like a trendbreak on price today percy,
no volume support and other indicators yet to fire also.
V.

Thanks for the thumbs up Vtrader.
Phaedrus.Any chance of a chart update?

Hoop
08-02-2011, 09:18 AM
Trends are more spectacular than the TA indicators...unfortunately :(

On closer observation the spectacular nature of this chart is dulled by the price column.. the big rises aren't that big as it looks.

However... the chart shows some great gap events and yesterdays gapped bound ascending triangle breakout ..spooky huh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/STU04022011.png

Phaedrus
08-02-2011, 09:56 AM
This chart shows any STU "Buy" signals, Bullish Divergences and positive indicators.
STU appears to be on the verge of a trendline break.
Note that this is an unconfirmed trendline.
Vtrader notes that there is no volume support and other indicators are yet to fire.
That's the good news.
The bad news is that STU is still in a 6 year downtrend.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/STU28.gif

percy
08-02-2011, 10:49 AM
Hoop, thank you.
Phaedrus,thank you.I saw the long term down trend,but thought it may have turned. I suppose I was looking to buy.Was not sure,.so very much appriciate your guidance.

macduffy
11-08-2011, 12:38 PM
A solid result from STU with half year underlying profit of around $8m, giving full year NPAT of $17m, an increase of 168% on the previous year.

SP up 2c.

percy
11-08-2011, 12:41 PM
A solid result from STU with half year underlying profit of around $8m, giving full year NPAT of $17m, an increase of 168% on the previous year.

SP up 2c.
I thought it was a good result,but the outlook commentary was very sober reading.

Lizard
11-08-2011, 01:35 PM
I thought it was a good result,but the outlook commentary was very sober reading.

I agree, percy. The result was a touch above where I was expecting, but was a bit disappointed the outlook wasn't stronger. Then again, STU can be a bit like that and tend to be a bit more bumpy than others, so may surprise (either way!) at half year. Nice to see the big chunky div though - that won't go amiss.

macduffy
11-08-2011, 01:47 PM
Yes, Lizard, STU management seldom seem to see the glass more than half full, even at the best of times. Can hardly blame them given the unpredictable nature of their sector and business conditions generally. I thought it was a pretty good result and a realistic assessment of prospects.

winner69
10-11-2011, 12:06 PM
Jeez the CEOs speech at the AGM was a bit sombre - I've heard more cheerful stuff at funerals

So half year $6-$7m almost 50% down on last year .... no matter the shareprice is starting to dive - so the charts only looked better for a little while

STU doing their best ..... like all associated with the construction/building industry hard to do bloody well when business is down 20% .... but the boom times have gone for a decade or more and outfits like STU need to understand that today level of activity is the new norm ... well maybe a bit better but not that much. I sense they recognise this and that is good

Just as well they have a controlling shareholder eh

percy
10-11-2011, 02:31 PM
[QUOTE=winner69;360731]Jeez the CEOs speech at the AGM was a bit sombre - I've heard more cheerful stuff at funerals

Guess there was no talk of increasing the director's fees.!!!!!!

macduffy
11-11-2011, 11:33 AM
Jeez the CEOs speech at the AGM was a bit sombre - I've heard more cheerful stuff at funerals



The DomPost (James Weir) takes a different tone. Photo of CEO Dave Taylor is headed "Upbeat message".

Different takes on the same information makes the market!

percy
11-11-2011, 12:01 PM
I try to attend as many meetings as I can,because I have found reports of meetings totally at odds with my view queit often.
I put this down to reporters not actually owning shares in companies they report on.They just do not have the owner's eye.
I value sharetraders reports on meetings they have attended for the same reason;"the owner's eye."

winner69
11-11-2011, 01:09 PM
I was there at the AGM (representing a shareholder I was even though really an interested industry observer) and listened to the speeches and left before the sandwiches which probablyy would have been quite nice

Might have been upbeat about last year but was pretty sombre about the present and the next yearl Haven't seen the DomPost today for that photo of an upbeat Taylor but Weirs report doesn't read 'upbeat'

They'll be OK as long as shareholders (ie the market) doesn't expect miracles ... we all need to accept the new norm that (real) growth is a thing of the past

Snoopy
28-06-2012, 04:20 PM
Jeez the CEOs speech at the AGM was a bit sombre - I've heard more cheerful stuff at funerals


Have just run my dividend metric over STU.

2012F: 5.5c, 5.5c
2011: 9.0c, 6.0c
2010: 3.5c, 5.5c
2009: 9.0c, 10.0c
2008: 10.0c, 9.0c

-----

Average dps over the last 5 years is 12.5c

12.5/0.08= a share price of $1.56!

I am really shocked by this. STU is a very well run company and if they can't make money from construction then no-one can IMO. My formula says sell STU as it is currently significantly overvalued. My head tells me don't invest in any share that make their money from building stuff!

SNOOPY

percy
28-06-2012, 04:43 PM
Have just run my dividend metric over STU.

2012F: 5.5c, 5.5c
2011: 9.0c, 6.0c
2010: 3.5c, 5.5c
2009: 9.0c, 10.0c
2008: 10.0c, 9.0c

-----

Average dps over the last 5 years is 12.5c

12.5/0.08= a share price of $1.56!

I am really shocked by this. STU is a very well run company and if they can't make money from construction then no-one can IMO. My formula says sell STU as it is currently significantly overvalued. My head tells me don't invest in any share that make their money from building stuff!

SNOOPY

I have to unfortunately agree with you.Appears an extremely well run company ,can't go against the trend,yet a poorly run company in the right sector at the right time can make a good profit.I am thinking of Dominan Finance who's five year record looked great until a down turn and we saw all the figures were false.Nice to see well run SCY report a great profit today.Only wish I still held some,as I sold out of all retail stocks,except one disaster in Aussie.!

Snoopy
29-06-2012, 02:41 PM
Average dps over the last 5 years is 12.5c

12.5/0.08= a share price of $1.56!


Looks like I underwent a momentary mutt metamorphosis from 'Snoopy' to 'Goofy' here. My calculation was the correct calculation for net income, but I need to work with 'gross income' to be consistent with my other examples.

(12.5/0.7)/0.08= $2.23

So with the current market value of $2.07, there is still value there for long term buyers after all.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
29-06-2012, 02:44 PM
I am really shocked by this. STU is a very well run company and if they can't make money from construction then no-one can IMO.


This comment didn't quite come out how I meant it to either. STU are making money, just not 'good money'. ROE used to be very impressive but this has dropped to well under 15% over the past few years.

SNOOPY

Lizard
10-08-2012, 08:06 AM
Have just run my dividend metric over STU.

2012F: 5.5c, 5.5c
2011: 9.0c, 6.0c
2010: 3.5c, 5.5c
2009: 9.0c, 10.0c
2008: 10.0c, 9.0c

-----

Average dps over the last 5 years is 12.5c

12.5/0.08= a share price of $1.56!

I am really shocked by this. STU is a very well run company and if they can't make money from construction then no-one can IMO. My formula says sell STU as it is currently significantly overvalued. My head tells me don't invest in any share that make their money from building stuff!

SNOOPY

Well I guess holders aren't going to be too chuffed (nor, perhaps, surprised) at a 3.5cps chop to the final dividend. Takes total div down to 11cps. However, still 1cps higher than Snoopy was forecasting.

Eventually the market will stabilise - surely the earthquake-strengthening projects in a few buildings will require steel? Not in bad shape at balance-sheet level, but maybe still too early to buy construction cyclicals. Could be one to consider at next half year... OIC result might give a glimpse of the extent to which any construction pipeline is developing.

Lizard
10-08-2012, 10:57 AM
Should add that it was very disappointing that they are still stuck on "well-positioned". I'm sure they're at least two reporting seasons behind the play with that one... I suggest that for the AGM they skip straight past "solid result" to a "positive trajectory"!!! :p

Under Surveillance
10-08-2012, 07:58 PM
Well I guess holders aren't going to be too chuffed (nor, perhaps, surprised) at a 3.5cps chop to the final dividend. Takes total div down to 11cps. However, still 1cps higher than Snoopy was forecasting.
No argument that holders won't be chuffed. However, the NZX figures have the final dividend as reduced by 3.0cps, from 9.0cps to 6.0 cps, and the total dividend as dropping from 15.0cps to 11.5cps (0.5cps lower than Snoopy forecast).

Lizard
11-08-2012, 08:14 AM
Oh dear - I rushed that one.... okay, the correct figures should be a 2.5cps chop to the final dividend (from 9.0cps to 6.5cps), bringing the total div to 12.0cps - (from 15.0cps prior). Still 1cps higher than Snoopy's forecast 2012 year end dividend of 5.5cps (but 0.5cps lower than his total 12.5cps average over 5 years). Using Snoopy's "5 year average dividend at required 8% yield" formula, the valuation would be $1.65.

Although I would dispute that:

a) the last 5 years represents an entire business cycle for STU (I think it's only the low half of the cycle - e.g. total divs were 29cps in 2007, 32cps in 2006) and

b) the use of 8% yield is a measure of fair value (the average dividend yield on NZ shares over 3 or 4 decades is only about 4% as I understand it - even though typical interest rates were much higher during most of that period than they are now.)

percy
11-08-2012, 08:54 AM
Until building permits improve and ChCh rebuild gathers momentum STU faces too strong a head winds.
Good company to have on your watch list,as their time in the sun will be very rewarding for shareholders.
Is their controlling shareholder there for the long term.?

Lizard.Quote for you from the book I have just started reading,Damage by John Lescroart,page 22.
""the TRAJECTORY there isn't up."
I can't even relaxe in a book.!!!!!!!!!!!

Snoopy
11-08-2012, 12:37 PM
Oh dear - I rushed that one.... okay, the correct figures should be a 2.5cps chop to the final dividend (from 9.0cps to 6.5cps), bringing the total div to 12.0cps - (from 15.0cps prior). Still 1cps higher than Snoopy's forecast 2012 year end dividend of 5.5cps (but 0.5cps lower than his total 12.5cps average over 5 years). Using Snoopy's "5 year average dividend at required 8% yield" formula, the valuation would be $1.65.

Although I would dispute that:


So would I! You used my 'Goofy' calculation based on net yield rather than my 'Snoopy' calculation based on gross yield.

$1.65/0.7 = $2.36 (the Snoopy valuation)



a) the last 5 years represents an entire business cycle for STU (I think it's only the low half of the cycle - e.g. total divs were 29cps in 2007, 32cps in 2006) and


Yes I agree, probably looking at a ten year picture would give a better 'business cycle' result. With the nervous qualification that this takes in data before the 2008 GFC which may be doubtful data to use going forwards. I am of the opinion that the economy won't return to its pre GFC state for at least a decade, and maybe never.



b) the use of 8% yield is a measure of fair value (the average dividend yield on NZ shares over 3 or 4 decades is only about 4% as I understand it - even though typical interest rates were much higher during most of that period than they are now.)


Fair point although my 8% yield was not meant to be representative of all shares. Just representative of high yielding low growth shares in a mature market. I believe STU fits into that category.

The other reason to use 8% is that the result may carry some margin of safety which as investors we can always do with!

SNOOPY

Snoopy
11-08-2012, 12:45 PM
Is their controlling shareholder there for the long term.?


Onesteel tried to take STU out a few years ago. Sine then they have had the GFC, the curse of the Oz government's mineral tax and the high Oz dollar to contend with.

Onesteel changed their name to Arrium this month to, and the share price is just a fraction of it was during the mineral market peak. I don't see a controlling shareholder buyout of Arrium is on the cards in the foreseeable future.

SNOOPY

macduffy
11-08-2012, 01:49 PM
I don't see a controlling shareholder buyout of Arrium is on the cards in the foreseeable future.


Hi Snoopy

I assume you meant "by Arrium" and I'd agree with that. Arrium have plenty on their plate without taking on more of STU - and after all the name change was designed to alter perceptions that OST was a purely steel manufacturer. In the period from 2007 -2012, the company's"steel" assets dropped from 92% to 47% of total value, the balance being largely Mining anf Mining Consumables. I don't see them wanting to reverse that trend.

percy
05-08-2015, 12:47 PM
I brought back in today at $2.877.
It appears the Fortress Fasteners acquisition is better than I thought.

Nasi Goreng
05-08-2015, 02:53 PM
You will likely get some volatility in this cyclic industry which will be different to slow and steady of POT.

Its been a while since I looked into STU. It is normally very cut throat industry with tight margins and dependent on large construction projects as well as a good eye on inventory levels / cashflow.

Given recent dairy construction boom which required heaps of stainless steel and that we are half way through Christchurch rebuild, do you think there will be enough non residential construction to provide growth and profitability beyond the next few years?

winner69
05-08-2015, 03:08 PM
I brought back in today at $2.877.
It appears the Fortress Fasteners acquisition is better than I thought.

That fortress business has high EBIT margins eh Percy

percy
05-08-2015, 03:29 PM
Projections.............. 2015............. 2016......................2017
Craigs eps................0.25.................0.29...... .................0.35
4-Traders eps...........0.25................0.289........... ...........0.329
Craigs PE..................11.5..................9.7..... .................8.1
4-Traders PE..............11.4.................9.9.......... ............8.7
Craigs dps..................0.20...............0.23...... ...............0.28
4-Traers.dps...............0.195..............0.217. ................0.24
Craigs div yield............6.8%...............8%............ ..........9.6%
Craigs eps growth.......23.2%.............17.8%.............. ..20%.

The eps growth took me by surprise,as did the yield..
Yes W69,it must have been a fantastic acquisition.
Nasi Goreng.Agree with you,that is why I sold some time ago,but looking at the above projections you can see why I brought back in..

Under Surveillance
05-08-2015, 03:46 PM
Projections.............. 2015............. 2016......................2017
Craigs eps................0.25.................0.29...... .................0.35
4-Traders eps...........0.25................0.289........... ...........0.329
Craigs PE..................11.5..................9.7..... .................8.1
4-Traders PE..............11.4.................9.9.......... ............8.7
Craigs dps..................0.20...............0.23...... ...............0.28
4-Traers.dps...............0.195..............0.217. ................0.24
Craigs div yield............6.8%...............8%............ ..........9.6%
Craigs eps growth.......23.2%.............17.8%.............. ..20%.

The eps growth took me by surprise,as did the yield..
Yes W69,it must have been a fantastic acquisition.
Nasi Goreng.Agree with you,that is why I sold some time ago,but looking at the above projections you can see why I brought back in..
I note from Snoopy's post #106 on the STU Steel and Tube thread that eps was 30.6 back in 2009, at which time dps was 20.0. Deja vu.

winner69
14-08-2015, 07:43 AM
Great result from STU this year

Black mark for using 'well positioned' in the announcement

Only needs the market to get rid of its current negative sentiment to building related stocks to get share price to $3 plus.

blackcap
14-08-2015, 08:07 AM
Great result from STU this year

Black mark for using 'well positioned' in the announcement

Only needs the market to get rid of its current negative sentiment to building related stocks to get share price to $3 plus.

Looks good on the initial quick glance. Div up to 10c from 9c and profit going to be supported by new acquisition. Though Chch may be slowing? Might have to find some time to have a decent read.

BeeBop
14-08-2015, 08:36 AM
I like the announcement too....but haven't had a full read. Overall, I have held this share since March 2010 as it has always seemed solid with a good yield. Let us see what the numbers actually say and how the low dollar impacts the overall picture.

macduffy
14-08-2015, 08:52 AM
There's not a lot to read. Only the one page as far as I can see and all good news!

:)

BeeBop
14-08-2015, 08:58 AM
If I am not wrong (back of envelope), their price to sales ratio is still low....if price is 2.82, share on issue are 90 million and sales are 500 million that puts the ratio of around 0.5? This is a key ratio for me as it shows, for this type of company, what is actually passing through the system! For sTU where I am not sure of the growth and it is cyclical this will keep me in the investment....

percy
14-08-2015, 02:55 PM
Yes a good year,but was not as good as I hoped for,so I sold.

BeeBop
15-08-2015, 07:59 PM
While the rest of the family has been watching the rugby, I have been reviewing STU in my normal manner. I will buy more as all is looking solid. However, I shall take a gamble on the price easing a little more. Agree that there is nothing startling about the report, just solid low margin industrial.

banter
15-09-2015, 03:28 PM
Projections.............. 2015............. 2016......................2017
Craigs eps................0.25.................0.29...... .................0.35
4-Traders eps...........0.25................0.289........... ...........0.329
Craigs PE..................11.5..................9.7..... .................8.1
4-Traders PE..............11.4.................9.9.......... ............8.7
Craigs dps..................0.20...............0.23...... ...............0.28
4-Traers.dps...............0.195..............0.217. ................0.24
Craigs div yield............6.8%...............8%............ ..........9.6%
Craigs eps growth.......23.2%.............17.8%.............. ..20%.

The eps growth took me by surprise,as did the yield..


2015 AT-EPS came in at 24.5c, net dividend 19c, fully imputed.

1) Aquaduct acquisition announced today (https://nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/270161).
- Relocatable factory making large bore very long pipes (fewer seams). Looks good.
- Bought off the receivers for asset value $8m; forecast EBIT 0.5-1.5m with NO project income. Staff and branding / goodwill retained.
- Prospect of up to $20m project income income from major irrigation projects (giving, by my estimate, $4m NPAT).
- Net effect on eps 0-5cps (my estimate).

2) Fortress acquisition adds 4.5 cps (https://nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/267862)
3) Inherent growth estimated at 11% (20% in 2015)
4) debt/debt+ equity 30% in 2015 (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/218467.pdf), rising to 32% with aquaduct buy, and back to 30% in 2016.
The 2015 dividend payout ratio of 78% seems sustainable.




Jun-15
post-aquaduct
06/16 e



Bank debt

72

80
73



equity
167
167
174



d/(d+e)

30%

32%
30%




Looking at 2016:



15
16


npat ul
21.4
30.8


net eps ul
0.245
0.340


net payout %
78%
78%


gross dps
0.264

0.366


gross yield %
10.1%
14.0%




eps for 2016 = 24.5c+11% growth + 4.5c (Fortress) + 2c (Aquaduct)

Looks like a high yielding stock with strong recent EPS growth, two good recent acquisitions and a good story - irrigation income.
It's in a slow downtrend.

winner69
12-11-2015, 01:34 PM
Sure will bean earnings surprise in 2016 by the looks of it ....and maybe 2017 as well

Market don't like announcement

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224651.pdf

percy
18-02-2016, 07:57 AM
This result shows it is very difficult swimming against the tide.

LAC
18-02-2016, 08:19 AM
Tough times for S&T, I really like their report though - very clear and straight up on their situation.

Balance
18-02-2016, 08:38 AM
Tough times for S&T, I really like their report though - very clear and straight up on their situation.

Don't share your view.

When a company reports without showing previous year's numbers in the commentary, you know it is down down down.

Joshuatree
22-02-2016, 01:21 PM
S/p hitting $2.31 up re 10% since announcement on good vol, shooting through 60DMA. Interim Div 9c (last 6 month 10c) re 8.23% nett yield (according to ASB)

winner69
17-03-2016, 01:44 PM
Misleading representations re products not a good look even if though they say just an oversight. **** does happen sometime.

Ironic seeing STU moan about shonky imports and how unfair the world is to them.

Whatever a reflection of company culture - obviously not good

Joshuatree
17-03-2016, 04:12 PM
Yes , listened to CEO being interviewed this morn on National Radio . Had an excuse that wasn't, refused to answer critical questions, very unprofessional, came across shocking.

winner69
17-03-2016, 04:53 PM
Yes , listened to CEO being interviewed this morn on National Radio . Had an excuse that wasn't, refused to answer critical questions, very unprofessional, came across shocking.

The interview

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201793532

Only thing he really admitted was there were thousands of these 'certificates'

Trust isverything. Wonder what oer things ae 'mistakenly' been done latelyi

winner69
18-03-2016, 07:29 AM
So the production manager is also in charge of the testing lab issuing certicates (Radio NZ this morning). Lab not accredited either.

STU seem loathe to get independent checks done. Be a disaster if found if this mesh didn't comply wouldn't it

Looks like making money for shareholders (and management bonuses?) higher priority than good practices and company reputation and that's not considering any implications about the integrity of the buildings this steel gone into.

thedrunkfish
18-03-2016, 07:48 AM
They forgot to update a form..... dont spill your coffee.

macduffy
18-03-2016, 08:33 AM
They forgot to update a form..... dont spill your coffee.

Unfortunately, it looks a little more serious than that.The testing was apparently carried out in the comopany's own lab; the lab's not properly accredited; and the manager who signed off on the cerificate is also a factory manager. Meanwhile, being very careful with my coffee.

sideline
18-03-2016, 08:59 AM
Unfortunately, it looks a little more serious than that.The testing was apparently carried out in the comopany's own lab; the lab's not properly accredited; and the manager who signed off on the cerificate is also a factory manager. Meanwhile, being very careful with my coffee.

Apparently in-house testing is entirely normal and accepted practice in the industry. Nothing illegal in that.

I suspect this storm in a tea-cup got whipped up by those competitors who DID actually get pulled up for
selling suspected sub-strength imported mesh by ComCom and had to withdraw their product from market.

Funny you don't hear about the worried owners of the houses where that stuff was used, instead everybody
is talking about one stamp too much on the form of STU.

RTM
18-03-2016, 09:43 AM
Apparently in-house testing is entirely normal and accepted practice in the industry. Nothing illegal in that.

I suspect this storm in a tea-cup got whipped up by those competitors who DID actually get pulled up for
selling suspected sub-strength imported mesh by ComCom and had to withdraw their product from market.

Funny you don't hear about the worried owners of the houses where that stuff was used, instead everybody
is talking about one stamp too much on the form of STU.

Agreed Sideline. In house testing is not an issue in itself. What is interesting is that the company, unless I have missed it, has not come out and defended its testing system to give everyone confidence that it is at least comparable to that performed by Holmes. I am quite surprised that they have not done this and that makes me wonder if there is more than just using the wrong logo on the testing certificate behind the issue. I am not sure if they have an accredited quality system, ISO9001 ?, couldn't see any reference to one on their website. So it may be that the testing done has not been rigorous or well done ? I guess they will be expecting a pretty significan audit...and that may be the reason for the silence, especially if there are any testing anomalies.

sideline
18-03-2016, 10:27 AM
Agreed Sideline. In house testing is not an issue in itself. What is interesting is that the company, unless I have missed it, has not come out and defended its testing system to give everyone confidence that it is at least comparable to that performed by Holmes. I am quite surprised that they have not done this and that makes me wonder if there is more than just using the wrong logo on the testing certificate behind the issue. I am not sure if they have an accredited quality system, ISO9001 ?, couldn't see any reference to one on their website. So it may be that the testing done has not been rigorous or well done ? I guess they will be expecting a pretty significan audit...and that may be the reason for the silence, especially if there are any testing anomalies.

RTM,
can't find any ISO stuff either.
In their Corporate Profile STU talk a bit about their quality standards and in particular about the reinforcing mesh (page 15).
In particular they say: "Before it
leaves the factory floor, each sheet
of reinforcing is tested and tagged
with a unique identifier linking the
sheet to its test certification, date
of manufacture and quality control
data. The tag remains with the
sheet throughout the life of the
product and can be used to track
performance years after the sheet
is installed"

winner69
18-03-2016, 10:30 AM
RTM,
can't find any ISO stuff either.
In their Corporate Profile STU talk a bit about their quality standards and in particular about the reinforcing mesh (page 15).
In particular they say: "Before it
leaves the factory floor, each sheet
of reinforcing is tested and tagged
with a unique identifier linking the
sheet to its test certification, date
of manufacture and quality control
data. The tag remains with the
sheet throughout the life of the
product and can be used to track
performance years after the sheet
is installed"

Ok - lets dig a bit of concrete up to find out

thedrunkfish
18-03-2016, 04:25 PM
I can't see the issue. It is standard industry practice and legal for them to do their own testing. The only issue was that the testing laboratoy they used to use was still on the certification form. This was discovered during an internal audit.

sideline
18-03-2016, 06:55 PM
I can't see the issue. It is standard industry practice and legal for them to do their own testing. The only issue was that the testing laboratoy they used to use was still on the certification form. This was discovered during an internal audit.

Agree, i still think it's a beat-up.
I actually listened to the story on National Radio when it 'broke' and could hardly believe how often the interviewer
managed to mention 'Steel and Tube' in the article - there was no mentioning of the other two (importing) companies
whose products actually had been found to be wanting and were under investigation by ComCom. The uproar was all about the
inappropriate stamp on the paper. Made me wonder about the quality of that journalism and whether other interests
are at play in that story and the way it is reported.

Today I see that somebody labelled 'top-lab' opines that inhouse testing can not be trusted - maybe somebody
trying to drum up some more business for themselves??

Joshuatree
19-03-2016, 08:34 AM
If the in house testing is above board then things will smooth out; if its not certified but robust enough it will work out; maybe a big fine, maybe have to pay a certified tester; an expense; if its not certified and not up to standard it will be one huge mess maybe like leaky homes or worse.The CEO did sound less then transparent.

sideline
19-03-2016, 12:10 PM
If the in house testing is above board then things will smooth out; if its not certified but robust enough it will work out; maybe a big fine, maybe have to pay a certified tester; an expense; if its not certified and not up to standard it will be one huge mess maybe like leaky homes or worse.The CEO did sound less then transparent.

I agree that the CEO seemed to treat the issue just as a documentation issue (which they discovered and reported themselves)
and management were obviously a bit surprised by the spin the merchants of doubt at RadioNZ put on the story.

There was no such hysteria when two weeks ago the other two companies were forced by ComCom to stop selling their sheets because
they were actually found to be somewhat below the new standards required since the Christchurch earthquakes. 400000 of those sheets have been
already used in construction but nobody talked about a 'huge mess'. The talk at that time was that because the new standards were so much
higher than the previous ones the users of those sheets wouldn't need to worry.

Joshuatree
20-03-2016, 12:01 PM
One reason I listen to National Radio precisely because of their accuracy, honesty and intent to get to the truth about things. There is no bull dust spin here (except maybe in the wine and food programmes:) . If you want spin go to Mike hosking and co.

This subject about reinforcing has triggered re my int in EDE Eden on the ASX. they have a concrete additive which strengthens and causes less abrasion and shrinkage to concrete; maybe even eliminating the need for so much reinforcing in some situs. Their edge is that they know how to spread the carbon nanotubes evenly through the mix (patented i think)I hold a parcel of shares

macduffy
20-03-2016, 01:43 PM
I listen to National Radio - or RNZ as they persist in calling it these days ( I keep expecting to hear an "AF" or an "N" to complete it! ) but can't help feeling that they have either latched on to what they regard as a scoop - no one else seems to treat the matter with the same persistence - or maybe that they have been fed some lines by a vested interest. I hope so anyway, as I'm still holding a modest pot of STU.

:mellow:

Joshuatree
20-03-2016, 02:36 PM
Still holding some in our family trust. They've been persisting along time.Kim Hill used to create some sparks when she was on every weekday 6-9 with her drilling in style, polarising,Geoff Robinson a lovely guy but didn't haven't enough authority to get to the bottom of things. Current presenters really try and i love that persistence.But one can only do so much when the interviewee plays"no comment" or talks politic speak' or all around it

Under Surveillance
20-03-2016, 08:07 PM
CEO was distinctly unimpressive on the TV3 news item I saw. I doubt Sir John Anderson (Chairman) would allow any deceitful behaviour by SKL executives over certification, though I do recall that STU failed to face up to a debt to Levines (?) over a building rental and got dragged through the courts over it a year or so ago with Sir John at the helm.

winner69
23-03-2016, 07:07 AM
I listen to National Radio - or RNZ as they persist in calling it these days ( I keep expecting to hear an "AF" or an "N" to complete it! ) but can't help feeling that they have either latched on to what they regard as a scoop - no one else seems to treat the matter with the same persistence - or maybe that they have been fed some lines by a vested interest. I hope so anyway, as I'm still holding a modest pot of STU.

:mellow:

The beat up continues - doesn't meet standards
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201794316


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201794316

Corporate reputation/risk balanced about maximising profits for shareholders is tricky stuff ....bugger forgot maximising management bonuses

Joshuatree
23-03-2016, 07:56 AM
If the in house testing is above board then things will smooth out; if its not certified but robust enough it will work out; maybe a big fine, maybe have to pay a certified tester; an expense; if its not certified and not up to standard it will be one huge mess maybe like leaky homes or worse.The CEO did sound less then transparent.

Lets hope its not industry wide but maybe it is.

macduffy
01-04-2016, 07:28 AM
A certain degree of backtracking by NZR this morning - shortly before 7.30am - from the claims made last week against STU. I didn't catch it all but didn't actually hear the word "apology"! Was anyone paying closer attention?

sideline
01-04-2016, 01:40 PM
A certain degree of backtracking by NZR this morning - shortly before 7.30am - from the claims made last week against STU. I didn't catch it all but didn't actually hear the word "apology"! Was anyone paying closer attention?

Thanks macduffy for pointing it out. I would have missed it otherwise - that's how quietly they try to slip through
their 'correction'.
The word apology wasn't mentioned.
And the way they 'corrected' their story bears no relation to the hype (and frequency) when they pushed
their original 'scoop' story. Altogether very unprofessional and lacking integrity by RadioNZ.

You can listen to the 'correction' here: http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/mnr/mnr-20160401-0729-clarification_to_report_on_rnz_mast_steel_problem-048.mp3

Snoopy
06-04-2016, 05:57 PM
The 'corrected' their story bears no relation to the hype (and frequency) when they pushed
their original 'scoop' story. Altogether very unprofessional and lacking integrity by RadioNZ.

You can listen to the 'correction' here: http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/mnr/mnr-20160401-0729-clarification_to_report_on_rnz_mast_steel_problem-048.mp3

Looks like RNZ bought and tested threaded rods. A thread can act as a stress concentration and produce a test result materially lower than might be expected of the same structure with straight rods, made from otherwise the same metal and chemical composition. Then RNZ admits that the test results related to different rods, not the rods that RNZ actually purchased! That seems a total disconnect!

However, as part of the news release by STU to the NZX at 9am today:

--------

(Steel & Tube CEO) Mr Taylor says despite the laboratories testing against the same standard, Steel & Tube has been surprised by the variability in the results, including results provided by the Commerce Commission, and has encountered significant ambiguity around the interpretation of the testing standards.

Mr Taylor supports statements made by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), that this is a question of standards.

“Given the ambiguity and interpretation encountered by Steel & Tube, perhaps it’s time to review the standards regime through the establishment of an Industry/Government working group”

-------

So it looks like, despite the dodgy testing methodology used by RNZ in the first place, they might be onto something after all?

SNOOPY

sideline
07-04-2016, 12:29 AM
Looks like RNZ bought and tested threaded rods. A thread can act as a stress concentration and produce a test result materially lower than might be expected of the same structure with straight rods, made from otherwise the same metal and chemical composition. Then RNZ admits that the test results related to different rods, not the rods that RNZ actually purchased! That seems a total disconnect!

Sloppy and unprofessional research by RadioNZ at best, at worst they were trying to sex up their 'scoop' story by playing fast and loose with the facts.
Neither is acceptable from a media organisation that is after all taxpayer funded.

LAC
18-05-2016, 07:37 AM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/282534

Just when the SP was looking up.

percy
18-05-2016, 10:17 AM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/282534

Just when the SP was looking up.

The chart still looks as though the downtrend continues.
Take care.

winner69
18-05-2016, 11:18 AM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/282534

Just when the SP was looking up.

So They say ........FY16 full year underlying profit is expected to fall short of last year’s NPAT by between 10 and 15%.

That's pretty bad when you consider that this year also includes the profit from those recent acquisitions which didn't have a full year last year.

I doubt things will ever be easy for STU .....and the past few years have seen a pretty big upswing in building activity (some say a boom evenallow for Christchurch)

winner69
18-05-2016, 12:45 PM
So on a like for like basis FY profits going to be down 20%-25% on LY

Thats accounting for the contribution from new business this year

Highlander
20-05-2016, 05:30 PM
A tough week for STU, with Macquarie coming out with 35% fall in target price following this weeks earnings warnings (down to $1.80). Another factor to weigh up here is that there is a good chance that STU may drop out of the NZX50 when the quarterly update comes out in early June (best to check with your share broker on this though), which would see index based selling. Be careful on this one

Highlander
24-05-2016, 05:01 PM
More on the Steel Mesh issue
From Radio New Zealand 8.35am
Steel mesh falls short in crucial tests
New figures show the extent that steel reinforcing mesh for house floors has been falling short in crucial tests, with mesh from three out of five companies failing to meet the mark.

The scores of failed tests released by the Commerce Commission under the Official Information Act - and the fact that three top laboratories rated the same pieces of steel differently - have prompted an overhaul of testing, four years after the seismic mesh first came on the market following the Christchurch quakes.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has not explained why it did not try to find out sooner if the products and testing were up to scratch, in its role as regulator.
The Commerce Commission has pointed out that the failed tests alone did not prove a company had failed to comply with the standard in the Building Code.
It also said some of the companies were challenging the test results amid fears they would be prosecuted under the Fair Trading Act.
"Some steel mesh suppliers have raised concerns that release of the testing results could prejudice their right to a fair trial," said the Commission, though it added that this was unlikely.
The 70 pages of tests showed the sheets of mesh from three out of five companies failed in almost all cases to reach the required standard of 10 percent ductility, or stretchability.
Among the lows, sheets from Euro Corp scored just 1.7, 3 and 4.5 percent, while Steel and Tube had a run of three sheets with an average score of under 6.5 percent.
Mesh from Brilliance Steel recorded slightly higher test results, but still not above the 10 percent.
These tests resulted in these three companies having to withdraw their seismic mesh from the market for several weeks.
Mesh from Fletcher Building and United Steel passed the tests.
But other types of tests also failed, including for Fletcher, where the welds broke where they should not have on two of its three sheets. Welds also broke too soon on Steel & Tube and Euro Corp mesh.
The tests also showed up discrepancies between the testing laboratories - in this case SAI and SGS as well as Holmes Solutions, which did fewer of the tests.
In one instance, SAI scored a sheet at 8.6 percent ductility in one spot and SGS at 3.5 percent. Another test saw a difference of 7.5 percent versus 1.7 percent.
Across the dozens of results, discrepancies of 2-3 percentage points were common, throwing the averages out.
MBIE was now moving to fix these variations, which have thrown a spanner of uncertainty into four years of mesh production.
It has just issued draft guidelines setting out exactly what part of the mesh to test and how, which was not clear before, although it has refused to provide the draft to RNZ News.
While MBIE was using the term 'guidelines', they would be mandatory for any meshmaker wanting to meet the standard.
It points to MBIE switching from a hands-off approach to regulation that has predominated for years. It remains unclear whether it would push on with compulsory third-party testing, where other building products were judged to be critical.
As for steel mesh, only the smallest of the four grades - which range from 6mm up to 9mm - have been tested by the Commerce Commission.
RNZ News has been told by industry insiders that it was even harder to make the bigger sizes hit the ductility standard.

winner69
25-05-2016, 05:52 PM
STU share price as weak as its steel mesh?

Sub $2 tomorrow?

Highlander
25-05-2016, 06:07 PM
Hmmm not a good performance today given the strength of the market, I'm picking at the upcoming NZX 50 review, Steel & Tube out and Scales in.

winner69
01-06-2016, 05:20 PM
I get the feeling many don't believe this

This steel 'issue' seems to be getting worse




GENERAL: STU: Recent Media - Huntly Bypass

Given the recent media attention around the Huntly Bypass pile casings, Steel
& Tube confirms its 18 May FY2016 earnings guidance disclosure appropriately
incorporated any impact from this issue.

Lewylewylewy
01-06-2016, 08:27 PM
On the radio today there was mention of a Chinese supplier looking to compete against STU to jump in the gap made by the recent certification issue. Apparently their product is certified and the open trade agreement doesn't prevent them from competing.

I wonder how easy it would be to compete in NZ given the cost of shipping metal (must be heavy, therefore expensive)? Does STU get its metal from abroad or locally, does anyone know?

barleeni
01-06-2016, 09:02 PM
I get the feeling many don't believe this

This steel 'issue' seems to be getting worse




GENERAL: STU: Recent Media - Huntly Bypass

Given the recent media attention around the Huntly Bypass pile casings, Steel
& Tube confirms its 18 May FY2016 earnings guidance disclosure appropriately
incorporated any impact from this issue.

I would believe that they would have accounted for it in their May 18 update, as the issue has been known about for some time, at least 6 weeks anyhow.

barleeni
01-06-2016, 09:04 PM
On the radio today there was mention of a Chinese supplier looking to compete against STU to jump in the gap made by the recent certification issue. Apparently their product is certified and the open trade agreement doesn't prevent them from competing.

I wonder how easy it would be to compete in NZ given the cost of shipping metal (must be heavy, therefore expensive)? Does STU get its metal from abroad or locally, does anyone know?

Are you asking about all of their steel or just steel for reinforcing? If your talking all steel of every shape and form I would guess that 50% comes from overseas, a further 30% from Australia and maybe 20% from NZ??

Lewylewylewy
01-06-2016, 09:39 PM
Thanks, so probably a Chinese competitor could be threatening?

I'm not a holder of this one, buy I could come to the party of there's a drop in price with no real threat of a difficult competitor.

muss1
01-06-2016, 09:39 PM
Structural steel and most commonly steel plate is imported from overseas. There are still quality concerns about Chinese steel and it is paramount that mill certificates are thoroughly examined before using the product. That said, there have been instances of fake mill certificates and accreditation. I would say most steel fabricators would import steel when possible as it is cheaper. This is most commonly steel plate because structural steel (beams, columns etc) needs to be made to New Zealand/Australia standard sizes. I image this is less appealing for overseas steel producers due to our smaller market.

Reinforcing steel is usually less of an issue because I believe most is sourced locally (of which steel and tube is a major player).

winner69
02-06-2016, 09:41 AM
Punters still not believing that succinct statement from STU yesterday

Not good - more to come?

winner69
02-06-2016, 05:56 PM
Sharechat - http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/484813a3/steel-tube-shares-fall-to-lowest-level-in-15-years.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Steel%20%20Tube%20shares%20fall%20to% 20lowest%20level%20in%2015%20years&utm_content=Steel%20%20Tube%20shares%20fall%20to%2 0lowest%20level%20in%2015%20years+CID_0de9b9cbddd2 fa3ccbfca24c514d769c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle484813a3steel-tube-shares-fall-to-lowest-level-in-15-yearshtml

Strange hey go back to 9/11 lows - weird

Wonder when time to have a leap of faith as the fat prophet man says

Highlander
02-06-2016, 06:35 PM
I'd suggest waiting till after the index sellers come out. STU highly likely to be out of NZX50 (announcement 9 June) thereafter quite simply the stock will be sold as the index guys sell the stock. I'm targeting late June as a safer time to buy

muss1
02-06-2016, 08:15 PM
To confirm my post from yesterday (I did further investigation today):

The most common steel sourced from China is steel plate (used in structural steel buildings). Followed by that it is the structural steel (beams/columns etc) itself, however this is less common as the standard sizes in Aus/nz are different to other countries.

Reinforcing steel is rarely from overseas. The New Zealand standard that seismic grade reinforcing has to made made in accordance with is much more rigorous than for structural steel. Hence NZ suppliers have a better hold on the market.

Quality of Chinese steel is a huge issue. In some cases steel has been provided with forged production information that says it meets certain standards when it doesn't. Sometimes it's hard to get any information at all. It is especially a problem from seismic grade steel because not only does it need to be at least a certain strength, but it cannot be stronger than certain upper limits. This means they need to pick up their game if they want to truly displace New Zealand suppliers.

When it comes to the split between the above in terms of steel volume I can't help.

Happy to answer any questions... Disc: I provide the above information as an engineer rather than an investor in STU. I am monitoring happenings to see if value presents itself however.

Lewylewylewy
02-06-2016, 11:06 PM
To confirm my post from yesterday (I did further investigation today):

The most common steel sourced from China is steel plate (used in structural steel buildings). Followed by that it is the structural steel (beams/columns etc) itself, however this is less common as the standard sizes in Aus/nz are different to other countries.

Reinforcing steel is rarely from overseas. The New Zealand standard that seismic grade reinforcing has to made made in accordance with is much more rigorous than for structural steel. Hence NZ suppliers have a better hold on the market.

Quality of Chinese steel is a huge issue. In some cases steel has been provided with forged production information that says it meets certain standards when it doesn't. Sometimes it's hard to get any information at all. It is especially a problem from seismic grade steel because not only does it need to be at least a certain strength, but it cannot be stronger than certain upper limits. This means they need to pick up their game if they want to truly displace New Zealand suppliers.

When it comes to the split between the above in terms of steel volume I can't help.

Happy to answer any questions... Disc: I provide the above information as an engineer rather than an investor in STU. I am monitoring happenings to see if value presents itself however.

Thanks muss, very valuable info

Mickey
03-06-2016, 12:49 PM
SP up 16c today to 200 - anyone know what could be driving that?

winner69
03-06-2016, 12:51 PM
SP up 16c today to 200 - anyone know what could be driving that?

Bargain hunters?

crighton100
04-06-2016, 02:24 PM
I'm an old retired investor [my equal biggest investment is STU],I was quite concerned months ago when the share started to drop from near $3 down to the $2.50's,so I wrote an email to the CEO [basically asking if they were going the way of Pumpkin Patch & Katmando] & to my surprise he replied with a rather long email,explaining the problems they had & more or less telling me they were in a good place & advising all the positives in the company,which I thought was pretty good & quite enlightening [& his advise to me was they would not go the way of above mentioned companies].That being aside I can remember when their shares were trading around $1,so nothing is a certainty.But with interest rates where they are ,its a pretty sure thing that no matter what problems the company has it will still be earning enough to pay substantially more in dividends,as it is not just a steel provider & the building industry is going gang busters [even if you have your head in the sand,you must know that just from listening to the news].My reason for making a comment is many oldies will have shares in the company & I think sticking with them rather than taking a loss is the way to go [as tough as it seems].The share market should be strong for some time to come [unless Trump gets in & world war 3 occurs] as interest rates will remain very low for us old buggers for quite some time to come & you have all the kiwi saver outfits & the govt super scheme buying shares all the time & like in all circles STU will most probably rise again.

Lewylewylewy
04-06-2016, 09:31 PM
They won't be buying Stu shares if they drop out of the NZX 50.

blackcap
04-06-2016, 10:16 PM
They won't be buying Stu shares if they drop out of the NZX 50.

All interesting this inclusion or not in the NZX50 but at the end of the day it does not change how much EPS STU will be making so to me it does not matter one bit if they are in or not. Short term there may be a dip in price, (there may not be) and that will be it.
I think some investors put too much weight on index inclusion/exclusion and it really does not move the price that much in the long term.
Whether STU can put the latest "problems" behind them is another matter but if they have stated the truth with their latest announcement then sub $2 they may be worth picking up a few.

kiora
05-06-2016, 01:53 AM
I'm an old retired investor [my equal biggest investment is STU],I was quite concerned months ago when the share started to drop from near $3 down to the $2.50's,so I wrote an email to the CEO [basically asking if they were going the way of Pumpkin Patch & Katmando] & to my surprise he replied with a rather long email,explaining the problems they had & more or less telling me they were in a good place & advising all the positives in the company,which I thought was pretty good & quite enlightening [& his advise to me was they would not go the way of above mentioned companies].That being aside I can remember when their shares were trading around $1,so nothing is a certainty.But with interest rates where they are ,its a pretty sure thing that no matter what problems the company has it will still be earning enough to pay substantially more in dividends,as it is not just a steel provider & the building industry is going gang busters [even if you have your head in the sand,you must know that just from listening to the news].My reason for making a comment is many oldies will have shares in the company & I think sticking with them rather than taking a loss is the way to go [as tough as it seems].The share market should be strong for some time to come [unless Trump gets in & world war 3 occurs] as interest rates will remain very low for us old buggers for quite some time to come & you have all the kiwi saver outfits & the govt super scheme buying shares all the time & like in all circles STU will most probably rise again.

I really hope you are still holding those FPH shares C100

crighton100
05-06-2016, 02:05 PM
I really hope you are still holding those FPH shares C100
Nope they went a while ago & paid for a 2 month holiday in Hawaii [thats the good thing about being old,you can do this stuff].Lets hope my 2nd biggest investment stays solid,good old NZX,always a good sound investment,as everytime people freek out & sell,the other greedies buy in,so as a profit is made on every buy & sell they really cant loose.Have a nice one..:)

Lewylewylewy
05-06-2016, 03:41 PM
There's some truth in that. Whenever a share gets pumped, I always ask myself if it's something they can recover from. Hopefully STU haven't lost customers to long term contracts with competitors or given potential competitors the opportunity to get in. I don't know the answer to this, but I may take a punt later in the month

Mista_Trix
18-07-2016, 09:07 AM
"John Key downplays retaliation suggestions over potential China steel import sanctions"
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/82192563/john-key-downplays-retaliation-suggestions-over-potential-china-steel-import-sanctions

macduffy
20-07-2016, 01:34 PM
There's some truth in that. Whenever a share gets pumped, I always ask myself if it's something they can recover from. Hopefully STU haven't lost customers to long term contracts with competitors or given potential competitors the opportunity to get in. I don't know the answer to this, but I may take a punt later in the month

STU's shareprice continuing its cautious recovery to/over $2. Trade at $2.03 today.

Mista_Trix
22-07-2016, 12:34 PM
"NZ steel bid 'courageous', says US steel workers' union"
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/82378694/united-states-steel-workers-union-offers-support-to-kiwi-industry

Such an interesting battle underway.
Especially given the amount of steel that does seem substandard (when actually tested by NZ regs - not dodgy certificates from abroad) which has come in via China - this can only help strengthen the long term position of companies like STU.

SP well up - $2.20 at posting.

blackcap
12-08-2016, 08:07 AM
Wonder if the increased profit, record sales revenue and huge dividend (in light of recent OCR action), and positive guidance for the future will have any impact on the SP today?

Steel & Tube Holdings Limited 2016 Annual Results
8:34am, 12 Aug 2016 | FLLYR
August 12 2016

Steel & Tube’s revenue a new high

Full-Year results and dividend
Steel & Tube’s revenue improved three per cent to a record $516 million. Net operating cash flow also increased to $25.1 million and is up on the 2015 result.

Net profit after tax for the year improved by 20.5 per cent to $25.8 million, reflecting a previously reported $6.4 million tax affected gain on sale from the Bowden Road property in Auckland. Underlying profit is $19.4 million and is higher than the range given in the guidance in May.

This was achieved in a particularly challenging environment with global steel prices at 13-year lows at the year’s midpoint, ongoing price volatility and intense competition in the domestic steel market, says chief executive Dave Taylor. The second half results include a one-off cost impact in relation to product quality issues.

The final dividend for the year is a pleasingly 13.5 cents per share.

Building on strong foundations
The continued execution of the company strategy through the financial year has positioned Steel & Tube well, creating strong foundations as shown by the year’s performance in-spite of the challenges of low global steel prices and questions around some product quality, says Mr Taylor.

“Despite the headwinds we’ve experienced and particularly in the second half of the year, our results demonstrate our resilience and ability to continue delivering sustainable value.”

The recent acquisitions of Manufacturing Suppliers Ltd (MSL) and Aquaduct with its sister company Bosch Irrigation bring new capabilities as we continue to deliver on our strategic objectives, he says.

“These acquisitions along with the strong foundations already within the business continue to position Steel & Tube for ongoing growth momentum in our key markets.”

Mr Taylor is confident about Steel & Tube’s future. “While we remain in a challenging global steel environment, steel prices are firming both domestically and globally. When coupled with a relatively robust domestic economy, we are optimistic that we’ll see a stronger performance from the business in our next trading year.”

[Ends]
For further information contact Tanya Katterns, Steel & Tube Communications Manager:
04 570 5048 tanya.katterns@steelandtube.co.nz.

Attachments
Appendix 1
Appendix 1 attachment - 30 June 2016 Financial Statements
Appendix 7
2016 S&T Year End Results

macduffy
12-08-2016, 12:33 PM
Yes, blackcap, the market liked what it heard from STU today and marked the SP up 5% - so far. Although most of the increased profit came from a property sale, it seems that the confidence of a stronger performance next year has been well received.

thedrunkfish
12-08-2016, 04:36 PM
I thought it was all doom and gloom though? Bad media reports, dodgy steel etc. :t_up:

blackcap
12-08-2016, 04:39 PM
I thought it was all doom and gloom though? Bad media reports, dodgy steel etc. :t_up:

Looking good isn't it with a 22.5c imputed dividend for the year... and the SP is under a 10% net yield with the outlook looking good. Time to top up at these prices I think.

winner69
15-08-2016, 12:18 PM
Market in love with STU today

blackcap
15-08-2016, 12:22 PM
Like I said, where else can you get a 10% net yielding stock (OR 15% gross) with prospects looking good....

macduffy
15-08-2016, 03:51 PM
Well done, blackcap!

STU up a mere 9.6% today!:cool:

I hold.

winner69
31-08-2016, 05:50 PM
Wonder if this will get off the ground?

http://www.steelclassaction.co.nz/

artemis
17-11-2016, 03:12 PM
Attended the ASM today. Couple of things, three counting a substantial lunch. First, the company has had no contact at all from the lawyers initiating the class action. Secondly, the impact (so to speak) of the earthquake was mentioned as a source of revenue going forward. Specifically mentioned was the viticulture industry at the top of the South Island, where some 100 stainless tanks will need to be replaced.

More about quality issues in the CEO's address, link below, though the earthquake was a late addition.

http://steelandtube.co.nz/investor/media/2016/ceos-address-st-annual-meeting-november-2016

Scrunch
17-11-2016, 07:26 PM
There were a few items that look to be positives from the AGM slides.

STU noted they were providing "value add" products to the UC regional science and innovation hub. I'm not sure if it was raised at the AGM but the lead contractor on this project is Fletcher Building. I'd have thought FBU would keep the work in-house so the STU sales team is doing something pretty well to even have an involvement in the project.

Last year STU noted one of the causes of the reduced profitability was lower steel prices. The slides showed the beginnings of an unwind of low steel prices which could (should?) assist profitability. If the market selling price go up, the profit margin on existing inventory should improve. As a distributor clipping the ticket on the way through, higher prices mean the same percentage margin provides a higher dollar contribution.

Disc hold

macduffy
05-12-2016, 09:47 AM
Commerce Commission to prosecute Steel and Tube.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11760533

Disc: Not holding

Jantar
05-12-2016, 10:57 AM
SP has really tumbled this morning, but on no real reason. The market release is that the commerce commission intends to prosecute on the grounds of unsubstantaited claims on meeting the standards, not that a prosecution has been successful. Even if STU were to lose, and even that is doubtful, that the earnings would be impacted by as much as the SP drop. STU claim that the mesh did, and does, meet the standard as shown by independant tests, but it is the testing method that differed.

MBIE has now given a testing method that everyone is happy with, so even if STU do get prosecuted successfully any penalty is likely to be minor

Under Surveillance
05-12-2016, 11:32 AM
MBIE has now given a testing method that everyone is happy with, so even if STU do get prosecuted successfully any penalty is likely to be minor
The Court imposed no penalty on NZX in the Ralec litigation, but NZX had to fork out $10 million for lawyers and pay for a settlement that avoided an appeal. The least-cost approach could be for STU to plead guilty at the first opportunity, cop a minor penalty, and suffer a few blushes.

Jantar
20-12-2016, 07:16 PM
It looks like Mr Market has endorsed my belief that the SP drop was too much and too fast. Only two weeks later and it is now above the level it wa at when the announcement was made. Glad I held :)

stoploss
19-01-2017, 10:05 PM
Wonder if this will get off the ground?

http://www.steelclassaction.co.nz/

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88572756/auckland-law-firm-warning-canterbury-homeowners-of-shoddy-steel

Jantar
20-01-2017, 12:48 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88572756/auckland-law-firm-warning-canterbury-homeowners-of-shoddy-steel
The Contractor in chief for Christchurch was Fletchers. I suspect you will find that almost all mesh used in the rebuild was supplied by FBU, not STU.

winner69
20-01-2017, 01:31 PM
The Contractor in chief for Christchurch was Fletchers. I suspect you will find that almost all mesh used in the rebuild was supplied by FBU, not STU.

Fletchers were Contractor in Chief of repairs only

Rebuilds (new houses) were open market

Jantar
20-01-2017, 01:44 PM
Ah. True.
So it could all come back to whether STU's own testing gave the correct results or not.

blackcap
01-02-2017, 09:56 AM
Ah. True.
So it could all come back to whether STU's own testing gave the correct results or not.

With all the negativity that has been going on the last few months with the class action talk and bad steel talk etc its a bit surprising to me that this is solidly bid at 2.53 after being 1.90 odd just 6 months ago. How is the squiggly line looking on this one winner?

Im a bit confused, I have a few of these but thought the class action was also aimed at STU (re their press release) so that would be bad for STU or am I not getting something here....

Mista_Trix
01-02-2017, 10:02 AM
I'm up 30%, which is quite shocking on a company I got into for the div.

I don't think the class action will get any legs to be honest. STU have been pretty transparent and front footed with their commentary around the subject.

Jantar
01-02-2017, 10:07 AM
.....
Im a bit confused, I have a few of these but thought the class action was also aimed at STU (re their press release) so that would be bad for STU or am I not getting something here....
My understanding is that the class action is aimed at STU and others, but that the claims against STU are unlikely to succeed. The STU steel did meet the specifications, but after the testing lab was changed, the earlier testing lab's logo had been left on the specification data. The commerce commission are prosecuting on that basis, and the class action is following the CC prosecution.

It is notable that MBIE, that administers the standards, are not prosecuting, and that STU's own tests show that the steel did meet spec. On that basis any class action would have to show that the steel did not meet spec.

blackcap
01-02-2017, 10:26 AM
My understanding is that the class action is aimed at STU and others, but that the claims against STU are unlikely to succeed. The STU steel did meet the specifications, but after the testing lab was changed, the earlier testing lab's logo had been left on the specification data. The commerce commission are prosecuting on that basis, and the class action is following the CC prosecution.

It is notable that MBIE, that administers the standards, are not prosecuting, and that STU's own tests show that the steel did meet spec. On that basis any class action would have to show that the steel did not meet spec.

Thanks Jantar, and Mista Trix, that makes sense. I got the feeling that STU were up fronting so that is good. Yeah I am in for the huge 10% plus imputed dividend so any capital gain is just cream on the top. Will keep my eyes open for what eventuates...

artemis
01-02-2017, 12:49 PM
My understanding is that the class action is aimed at STU and others, but that the claims against STU are unlikely to succeed. The STU steel did meet the specifications, but after the testing lab was changed, the earlier testing lab's logo had been left on the specification data. The commerce commission are prosecuting on that basis, and the class action is following the CC prosecution.

It is notable that MBIE, that administers the standards, are not prosecuting, and that STU's own tests show that the steel did meet spec. On that basis any class action would have to show that the steel did not meet spec.

Agree. There is no real downside for the class action to include STU. In my admittedly very limited experience class actions cast a wide net initially then drop actions if an issue does not look like a go. The class action holds all the cards, up until the hearing anyway.

Hoop
01-02-2017, 01:08 PM
From the company reports over the years, they say steel prices affects STU bottom line

The chart below is a long term snapshot of STU..What a long term chart shows is STU's downtrend has been over 12 years, a lot longer than one would have thought as the 18month uptrend (2013 -2015) was considered long...STU is in a cyclical industry so that 18 month uptrend can be seen on the chart as a failed cyclical rally (cut off at the knees). The cause amongst other things could be the failure of a decent steel price rally and unexpected period (2010 - 2012) of global economic weakness..

The primary driver of Cyclical behaviour is the state of its market's economy...the other (secondary) drivers are cost of it's products (also cyclical) and amount of competitors in that same market (profit margin effect)

As I keep on hearing the management blaming the steel prices in restricting STU performance I added the Steel price indicator to the chart so to give an "eye" visual to determine what sort of correlation Steel prices have on the STU shareprice..Recently the steel prices (although still low) have rocketed upwards by 300%..STU has some resilence built in now..quote "When coupled with a relatively robust domestic economy, we are optimistic that we’ll see a stronger performance from the business in our next trading year.” (http://steelandtube.co.nz/investor/media/2016/steel-tube%E2%80%99s-revenue-new-high)

This may explain a poor Steel/Shareprice correlation back in 2010-2011 when the Global + NZ economy suffered a weak period with STU having many competitors (margin pressures). (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3138987)

STU price of the time of this posting $2.61 up 8 (+3.2%)

DISC: Hoop has STU shares

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/STU%2031012017.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/STU%2031012017.png.html)

winner69
01-02-2017, 02:36 PM
Good post Hoop

Steel prices do impact margins but I get the impression that they use it to hide / gloss over deeper underlying performance

Using Ready Mix Concrete production as a proxy for building activity (after all where concrete goes steel goes) STU have really missed the boat in the latest building boom.

Did very well in the building boom in the 00's ....but missed out the last 5 to 6 years

Chart below shows by how much

At least punters are now seeing some action ....... but I would be worried as all the signs are that the peak of the recent boom has or will soon be reached. Can steel prices mitigate a down turn in demand and maintain profitability?

Yes Hoop - a real cyclical

You in for a quick buck I hope - no long term investment?

winner69
01-02-2017, 02:38 PM
Hoop - again your charts stuffs up my view of this thread - goes off the page

I'll cope

trader_jackson
01-02-2017, 06:10 PM
I was really hoping to get in on STU a few weeks back (well when it was around the low $2.40's, which was only recently)... just had to get some cash together, but it also seems like Mr Market had a similar idea... likely Mr Market is expecting favorable results (which will be annouced just after mid Feb probably), like I am.

winner69
01-02-2017, 06:19 PM
I was really hoping to get in on STU a few weeks back (well when it was around the low $2.40's, which was only recently)... just had to get some cash together, but it also seems like Mr Market had a similar idea... likely Mr Market is expecting favorable results (which will be annouced just after mid Feb probably), like I am.

Interested in why you fancy STU

Doesn't seem your type of investment

trader_jackson
01-02-2017, 06:30 PM
Interested in why you fancy STU

Doesn't seem your type of investment

In my view: Looked cheap, fundamentals improving, and further diversification

Hoop
02-02-2017, 09:58 AM
..................................
Yes Hoop - a real cyclical

You in for a quick buck I hope - no long term investment?
I quick buck would be nice.....I'll be "in" for as long as STU is nice to me, so I have no idea how long, could be 1 day to 5 years who knows...I'm always jittery about holding cyclical stocks as I'm well aware how very cruel they can be to it's stockholders when they hold for too long..These types of stocks are dangerous and can turn suddenly without pre-warning..

TJ and others..I hope you take stock of Winner's doubts...remember STU is still in a long term downtrend so it is a bear, and until otherwise ..and..a bear market investing strategy (rowing) should be used....in other words this latest rally has to be seen as another sucker rally until proved otherwise...so we should watch very closely for failure signs when nearing resistance areas .....

Also note... While the NZSE has gone up about 300% during the last 8 years, STU is risen diddly squat...Investors should be aware (question) STU's management poor performance record to create shareholders capital

Yes I have questioned (see my previous post) whether this STU bear is ending, but until there is confirmation I'm watching this share a few times every day because it is nearing resistance areas...STU is at a small resistance now (I've noted this) but the one I'm focused on is the strong resistance at the old bull/bear line of the last 2014 rally of ~$2.75 - $2.80ish area...that's not far away..

blackcap
02-02-2017, 10:03 AM
Also note... While the NZSE has gone up about 300% during the last 8 years, STU is risen diddly squat...Investors should be aware (question) STU's management poor performance record to create shareholders capital

.

I wonder if you add the dividends to STU's performance the last 8 years how that would compare to the NZSE which is a gross index.... could be an interesting comparison.
But yes STU if you can get in at a reasonable price will not cost too much even if held long term.

Hoop
02-02-2017, 10:45 AM
I wonder if you add the dividends to STU's performance the last 8 years how that would compare to the NZSE which is a gross index.... could be an interesting comparison.
But yes STU if you can get in at a reasonable price will not cost too much even if held long term.

Good post...
Yes...When STU is compared with NZSE gross index it looks better but still bad methinks ....The gross index has recouped the 2008-2009 losses to be at a similar level as at 2007....STU shareprice is down 50% so its capital erosion...so lets say a total $2.20 per share has to be accumulated and compounded in a separate bank account during the last ten years to break even......Dividend Share reinvestment is poorer option because of the downtrend...

I had this argument thrashed out on the SPK thread.....I'm sorry but no body is going to change my mind on these capital eroding high yielding stocks as a long term investment strategy....Look at it this way....A Long term investor buying in at $5.00 and sitting on STU ever since (2007) is not getting a high yield dividend compared to nowadays, and if anything went wrong and had to sell only 50% of their capital can be realised..

If you are a long term investor the total opposite is the best play...Buying a high growth (capital appreciating) low yielding stock and after 10 years your orginal buy in is now yielding high dividends and the stock is still appreciation in price...and if you had to sell you would get 300% increase in capital back...e.g MFT...and..hindsight has little to do here as MFT has always been known as a high growth/low yielding stock...

Cyclical stocks are great in a portfolio for half of the time..Quick capital appreciation and high yielders.....Sadly the other half of the time they are capital eroders (possibly to zero) and negative yielders (need money, share dilutions,options etc)...they make lousy (very) long term investments.

winner69
03-02-2017, 06:12 AM
In my view: Looked cheap, fundamentals improving, and further diversification

OK

Maybe STU are beginning to cream it at the moment after missing out badly on the current building boom

That boom coming to an end I reckon - so hoops comments are relevant as 2018/2019 could be one of those 'capital erosion' periods

Hoop
03-02-2017, 12:41 PM
Price fallen sharply back to 2.55 from an intra-day high of 2.65 yesterday...could be a throwback to test its breakout (occurs ~60% of the time) then move up again (second chance buy-in)...STU is a volatile stock see my above weekly chart..more spikes than a porcupine....so a complete throwback to 2.40 breakout point would be disappointing but would not come as a complete surprise to me due to it's sudden movement volatile nature....For the optimists and hopefuls there are some slight chart supports at 2.49 and 2.45..The 2.49 support is confirmed with the current trading depth data...

Also..there is good buying support emerging at 2.58 now that those couple of sellers have left the building..... so 2.55 could be the bottom..

Disc: holding

arc
11-04-2017, 01:40 PM
Price fallen sharply back to 2.55 from an intra-day high of 2.65 yesterday...could be a throwback to test its breakout (occurs ~60% of the time) then move up again (second chance buy-in)...STU is a volatile stock see my above weekly chart..more spikes than a porcupine....so a complete throwback to 2.40 breakout point would be disappointing but would not come as a complete surprise to me due to it's sudden movement volatile nature....For the optimists and hopefuls there are some slight chart supports at 2.49 and 2.45..The 2.49 support is confirmed with the current trading depth data...

Also..there is good buying support emerging at 2.58 now that those couple of sellers have left the building..... so 2.55 could be the bottom..

Disc: holding

Whats the current thoughts on STU.

hardt
28-04-2017, 07:16 PM
There is some value here in the 230-240's, debt levels don't look so great.

Short-mid term looks alright, I have never been a fan of cyclical stocks though.

The dividend yield is making me light headed and I can imagine this has enticed enough retail investors to jump in.

JoeGrogan
28-04-2017, 10:29 PM
There is some value here in the 230-240's, debt levels don't look so great.

Short-mid term looks alright, I have never been a fan of cyclical stocks though.

The dividend yield is making me light headed and I can imagine this has enticed enough retail investors to jump in.

Yeah with a market cap of $218 million (at 2.41) and a forecasted profit of $22 million, the PE ratio seems pretty fair with such an attractive dividend. Furthermore, $2.36 seems to be a pretty strong level of supprt.

Disc: sold out after last dividend.

hummerh40
03-05-2017, 01:59 PM
The yield is definitely attractive at these prices. Not too many companies on the NZX (except the REITs) offer this kind of a %

macduffy
07-06-2017, 08:45 AM
I was starting to regret having sold out of STU last year, but........

http://beta.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11871113

BlackPeter
07-06-2017, 09:01 AM
I was starting to regret having sold out of STU last year, but........

http://beta.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11871113

Quite sensationalist reporting from the Herald - they didn't even bother to get (or refer to) a statement from STU.

If you look at today's response from STU:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4448159


The Commission's charges against Steel & Tube in regards to compliance with
the testing Standard relate to the application of testing methodologies only,
not the performance characteristics of the seismic mesh.


I.e. no evidence that anything would be wrong with the product. My understanding is that a contracted testlab in China performed some tests they were not accredited to do - invalidating these tests.

Does however not mean that the test results are wrong and does certainly not mean that the product is inferior.

As well - to the best of my knowledge nobody claims that STU knew about this mix up anyway. Sh*t happens.

The investigation and the likely outcome is known to the markets for months. In my view just a storm in a teacup.

Discl: holding;

t.rexjr
07-06-2017, 09:54 AM
Gawd this issue was detected and rectified over a year ago and they only now get charges laid against them.

It's my understanding there was never anything wrong with the product only the testing proceedure. Absolute storm in a tea cup is right!

Hoop
07-06-2017, 10:43 AM
Triggered my TA sell signals....so I got chucked out this morning....I Sold half with the Mid March gap down and realised +2% profit ..sold the other half this morning for +0.5% profit not including the good yield 9c/share (~3.75%) divvy on that half of it... Overall, a disappointing, hopeless 4.5 month TA investment and what makes it worse is the fact my investment happened during a building boom...

percy
07-06-2017, 11:16 AM
Triggered my TA sell signals....so I got chucked out this morning....I Sold half with the Mid March gap down and realised +2% profit ..sold the other half this morning for +0.5% profit not including the good yield 9c/share (~3.75%) divvy on that half of it... Overall, a disappointing, hopeless 4.5 month TA investment and what makes it worse is the fact my investment happened during a building boom...

If they can't get it right during a building boom,sums up what an investment diaster STU has been..
So if my house foundations were built with non compliance steel mesh,who pays for the compliance foundations.?
Class actions should keep STU's lawyers in a job after the Commerce Commission has finished with them.
Expensive.

BlackPeter
07-06-2017, 11:42 AM
...
Class actions should keep STU's lawyers in a job after the Commerce Commission has finished with them.
Expensive.

Only if somebody can prove that their steel is substandard AND if this fact caused a damage. Didn't happen yet.

If you buy a perfectly good product which has been tested by somebody without the correct accreditation, than you can't claim damages unless the product is substandard.

percy
07-06-2017, 11:47 AM
Only if somebody can prove that their steel is substandard AND if this fact caused a damage. Didn't happen yet.

If you buy a perfectly good product which has been tested by somebody without the correct accreditation, than you can't claim damages unless the product is substandard.
Disagree.
They are before the commerce commission for selling an uncertified product.
Case proven.
If I had brought it as being uncertified, I have ever right to sue them,for not providing the product certified.
Class action would succeed in my opinion.

BlackPeter
07-06-2017, 12:20 PM
Disagree.
They are before the commerce commission for selling an uncertified product.
Case proven.
If I had brought it as being uncertified, I have ever right to sue them,for not providing the product certified.
Case action would succeed in my opinion.

OK - lets test that. Let's assume you are selling books. They contain all the required copyrights in high quality print. They are not different from the "real thing" (same quality) but - unknown to you - they have not been printed by the licence holder but by some Chinese (or whatever) IP pirate and your usual distributor either didn't tell you or didn't know either.

Would you consider it proper if you pay not just a big fine and compensation to the licence holder (I assume that's what the commerce commission wants to achieve) but you are as well required to replace all the books you sold plus pay compensation to any student who ever looked into your book - not for learning the wrong thing (remember - nothing wrong with the content), but for looking into a correctly printed book with a forged copy right?

Sounds stupid to me ....

If the steel mesh is good enough it would be absolutely ridiculous to tear the buildings down (which would cause the damage ...).

If it is not good enough (looking at its physical properties), than the question is still who pays. I would however agree that in that case STU would stand pretty close to where the bucket is likely to stop.

t.rexjr
07-06-2017, 12:32 PM
Disagree.
They are before the commerce commission for selling an uncertified product.
Case proven.
If I had brought it as being uncertified, I have ever right to sue them,for not providing the product certified.
Case action would succeed in my opinion.

Sue them for what?
No one as far as I'm aware has suggested the product wouldn't/doesn't comply. The issue is only accreditation of the certifiers and their testing method.
They believed their interpretaion of the testing standards were correct. Ambiuties with the standard were clearly there as MBIE had to issue clarification
At the end of the day, their is no issue known with the actual steel.

I'm wishing them the best for their defence

(not holding)

percy
07-06-2017, 12:40 PM
Sue them for what?
No one as far as I'm aware has suggested the product wouldn't/doesn't comply. The issue is only accreditation of the certifiers and their testing method.
They believed their interpretaion of the testing standards were correct. Ambiuties with the standard were clearly there as MBIE had to issue clarification
At the end of the day, their is no issue known with the actual steel.

I'm wishing them the best for their defence

(not holding)

So you would expect the CC to fine them $5 on each of the 22 charges?
No way.
STU will get it hard.
This will open up class actions.
False certification in the face of suspect imported products ,means CC has a very messy sector to clean up.

percy
07-06-2017, 12:56 PM
False claims,false information, false derogatory comments,plagiarism,copyright infrgement,liabilious comments have seen a great number of books withdrawn from sale in NZ.They must all be destroyed.I would expect publishers would have sued the authors.

t.rexjr
07-06-2017, 12:56 PM
So you would expect the CC to fine them $5 on each of the 22 charges?
No way.
STU will get it hard.
This will open up class actions.
False certification in the face of suspect imported products ,means CC has a very messy sector to clean up.

So you're saying they knowingly imported defective material and falsified documents? Where do you get that information from?

JoeGrogan
07-06-2017, 01:06 PM
So you would expect the CC to fine them $5 on each of the 22 charges?
No way.
STU will get it hard.
This will open up class actions.
False certification in the face of suspect imported products ,means CC has a very messy sector to clean up.

Agreed, the CC will not take misleading representations lightly, especially in light of the leaky building fiasco. I was at CC presentation a few weeks ago, and the talk was about their prosecution standards and what they aim to achieve when going after companies. In short, when it is a first instance case like this one, they like to set an example, ie their bike barn, and early childhood education decisions (name of company escapes me), so that it deters others from doing the same thing.

JoeGrogan
07-06-2017, 01:06 PM
So you're saying they knowingly imported defective material and falsified documents? Where do you get that information from?

This aint a criminal case so knowledge or intent is not actually required.

percy
07-06-2017, 01:08 PM
So you're saying they knowingly imported defective material and falsified documents? Where do you get that information from?

I am saying they sold falsely labelled product.

JoeGrogan
07-06-2017, 01:10 PM
False claims,false information, false derogatory comments,plagiarism,copyright infrgement,liabilious comments have seen a great number of books withdrawn from sale in NZ.They must all be destroyed.I would expect publishers would have sued the authors.

No the publishers are the ones responsible for copyright, in fact in an author agreement the author gives over their copyright to the publisher. (i worked for Penguin and did legal work in regards to their publishing contracts).

Edit: Sorry misread what you said, the publishers typically won't sue an author cause the contract will allow for some form of remedy if defamatory statements were made by the author.

percy
07-06-2017, 01:14 PM
Agreed, the CC will not take misleading representations lightly, especially in light of the leaky building fiasco. I was at CC presentation a few weeks ago, and the talk was about their prosecution standards and what they aim to achieve when going after companies. In short, when it is a first instance case like this one, they like to set an example, ie their bike barn, and early childhood education decisions (name of company escapes me), so that it deters others from doing the same thing.
This is exactly as I see it.Thank you for your post.
I also see it as a lot more serious.

percy
07-06-2017, 01:15 PM
No the publishers are the ones responsible for copyright, in fact in an author agreement the author gives over their copyright to the publisher. (i worked for Penguin and did legal work in regards to their publishing contracts).

Edit: Sorry misread what you said, the publishers typically won't sue an author cause the contract will allow for some form of remedy if defamatory statements were made by the author.

Thank you for clarity.

winner69
07-06-2017, 01:23 PM
Triggered my TA sell signals....so I got chucked out this morning....I Sold half with the Mid March gap down and realised +2% profit ..sold the other half this morning for +0.5% profit not including the good yield 9c/share (~3.75%) divvy on that half of it... Overall, a disappointing, hopeless 4.5 month TA investment and what makes it worse is the fact my investment happened during a building boom...

I was surprised you even had a go at trading STU when you did. To me the fundamentals indicated there was limited upside .....as well as the risk of lot of downside

At least you got the divie for your efforts

t.rexjr
07-06-2017, 01:28 PM
This aint a criminal case so knowledge or intent is not actually required.

Was merely attempting to distinquish in my own mind whether his opinion was based upon certainty or conjecture

Hoop
07-06-2017, 01:46 PM
yes Percy, could be expensive..
Mr Market dislikes finding skeletons in cupboards..

Shareholders have known about this for a while now.... but as of today, there is a new question mark why ComCom has taken the expensive and aggressive option of Court action ....For the shareholders, the question . "Is there something more to this we don't know about?"

Perceived risk has increased today, so shareprice is discounted as per risk v reward

Jantar
08-06-2017, 12:48 PM
And shareprice is right back to where it was before yesterday's announcement. It was old news, so no need for panic, but a few managed to get a bargain out of it
.

Hoop
12-06-2017, 05:20 PM
Back down again ..that will upset the bargain hunters...Typical of STU, even the bargain hunters can't make a quick buck.....Care could be needed as maybe the first drop could be a P wave...

winner69
07-07-2017, 09:45 AM
Another outfit that says H2 will be stronger so FY is pretty good .......and fails to deliver on the 'promise'.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/261309.pdf


Oh well, next year bound to be better

percy
07-07-2017, 10:01 AM
Interestingly enough I was having another look at them this morning.Craigs have their dividend yield 10.1% and the chart looked strong,but with the PE of 11.6 being higher than their eps growth of 9.7% I decided against them.
Just as well, as that earnings downgrade has confirmed my decision.

winner69
07-07-2017, 10:14 AM
Interestingly enough I was having another look at them this morning.Craigs have their dividend yield 10.1% and the chart looked strong,but with the PE of 11.6 being higher than their eps growth of 9.7% I decided against them.
Just as well, as that earnings downgrade has confirmed my decision.

Yes, eps growth somewhere between 3% and 8% so share price might fall from where it was yesterday to reflect this growth.

And don't forget acquisitions were supposed to boost earnings quite a lot this year and at H1 were on track to do. underlying business must be struggling to grow profits. Sort of says tough times (competitive) in the building industry at the moment. Building boom peaking so won't get any easier for the likes of STU

Always interested but long term chart really tells the story.

winner69
07-07-2017, 04:44 PM
Be interesting to see hoops take on recent action

Seemed to have crept up nicely before this announcement....then wham

peat
07-07-2017, 05:45 PM
Be interesting to see hoops take on recent action

Seemed to have crept up nicely before this announcement....then wham

to me , the last year looks corrective.

winner69
07-07-2017, 07:37 PM
A year ago -


In February, Steel & Tube indicated the current financial year's (FY16) full
year underlying profit was expected to be consistent to the prior full year's
net profit after tax (NPAT) of $21.4m.

The current second half of financial year FY16 is proving more challenging
than anticipated and as a consequence, the FY16 full year underlying profit
is expected to fall short of last year's NPAT by between 10 and 15%.


Today


In February in the half year results, Steel & Tube signaled the FY17 full
year was expected to be consistent to the prior year's EBIT.

The Company indicated a stronger second half and while Steel & Tube was on
track to realise that, the period proved more challenging in the final weeks.

"We have faced multiple construction and infrastructure project challenges,
and delays which have been out of our control, coupled with intense
competition in the market leading to tighter margins particularly in the
construction sector," says CEO Dave Taylor.

As a consequence, the FY17 EBIT is expected to fall short of last year's by
between 10% and 15%.


Same message this time next year.? They like using the word 'consistent' so chances are it will be.

winner69
07-07-2017, 07:47 PM
NZX website says STU up 60% from a year ago

Profit (outlook) about the same as a year ago so increase has come from PE expansion or yield expectations

Been a huge rerating up by the market .... punters must love something (probably the dividend)

Well done those who have got richer from STU this year

winner69
08-07-2017, 08:19 AM
Best time to buy STU seems to be after a bad news announcement

Shareprice generally seems to rebound quite well

So buy Monday?

percy
08-07-2017, 08:28 AM
Best time to buy STU seems to be after a bad news announcement

Shareprice generally seems to rebound quite well

So buy Monday?

I will give you a free run.
You may find these articles of interest.Google Bert Govan,scroll down the page to "Steel firm gears up as another goes bust."
Then go back up the google page and read "Property Development Christchurch;New Urban Group."

hardt
08-07-2017, 08:13 PM
8977

At the supposed peak of the cycle in NZ... something has to give, hopefully the property market.

winner69
01-08-2017, 06:03 PM
Down 18% from a month ago when they said full year results will be a little less than expected

That's an awful big decline .....but not a surprise as was never really worth 230 plus, let alone 263

End of current building boom over ......STU under 200 sometime soon

Hope you still not holding Black Peter

Jantar
01-08-2017, 07:50 PM
Hit my stoploss value today, Sold over half, but still holding some.

BlackPeter
02-08-2017, 07:22 AM
Down 18% from a month ago when they said full year results will be a little less than expected

That's an awful big decline .....but not a surprise as was never really worth 230 plus, let alone 263

End of current building boom over ......STU under 200 sometime soon

Hope you still not holding Black Peter

Sold early June with a slight gain - triggered by some stop losses (if this makes sense).

arc
02-08-2017, 02:04 PM
STU on the rebound

BlackPeter
02-08-2017, 03:21 PM
STU on the rebound

Maybe .... and yes, looks oversold. On the other hand is it so far below any relevant MA that I wouldn't read too much into a slight one day bounce.

There is always hope ...

percy
14-09-2017, 04:37 PM
Be interesting to watch STU's fortunes now Dave Taylor has decided to move on.
I feel sorry for him being at the wrong place at the wrong time.
A sector that has ruined a lot of people's careers.
Good luck to Mark Malpass in the interim.

peat
15-09-2017, 10:49 AM
yeh its hard to know if there is any taint coming from his departure, the concern being any negligence in the COM COM issue.
a fine wont be terminal but liability arising from any failure could be.

good yield and low PE.
And I think the August price action does look like an ending diagonal which could be quite bullish

winner69
15-09-2017, 11:21 AM
Somebody made the comment on Radio NZ Business yesterday that he wasn't fired.

percy
15-09-2017, 11:27 AM
Somebody made the comment on Radio NZ Business yesterday that he wasn't fired.

I read it he must have been given a choice.

percy
15-09-2017, 11:31 AM
yeh its hard to know if there is any taint coming from his departure, the concern being any negligence in the COM COM issue.
a fine wont be terminal but liability arising from any failure could be.

good yield and low PE.
And I think the August price action does look like an ending diagonal which could be quite bullish

That possible liability could have a very long tail.

artemis
15-09-2017, 01:59 PM
I've been to the last couple of ASMs. Overall impression is of a well run company that has run into a couple of potentially serious issues. They were very up front, no glossing over risks or consequences though not all was known at 2016 ASM. Holding.

mfd
05-10-2017, 02:51 PM
This could help with the competitive pressure

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97540005/challenge-steel-liquidated-directors-abandon-ship

percy
05-10-2017, 03:17 PM
This could help with the competitive pressure

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97540005/challenge-steel-liquidated-directors-abandon-ship

Another huge shambles.
And yes positive for STU,however the door has been opened for cheaper steel imports from China,and I would expect another company will take up the challenge contacts.
Bert Govan and John Fairhall are very experienced businessmen,so I guess this liquidation is to limit their losses. Don't know who will end up carrying the can,but it will be a very heavy can.!

winner69
16-11-2017, 08:39 AM
Oh dear ..another dismal STU update

Half year EBIT down $10m on last year (which was $16m)

New computer system tells them they have heaps and heaps of useless stock. But that is only half the difference, rest being this stupidly difficult market.

No worries we’ll catch up in second half ....they said that last year but didn’t deliver.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310418

winner69
16-11-2017, 08:43 AM
The number of times they say superior shareholder value is a bit nauseating ....feel sorry for shareholders at the ASM if they keep on saying that in their speeches.

They must believe it though.

percy
16-11-2017, 08:53 AM
Oh dear ..another dismal STU update

Half year EBIT down $10m on last year (which was $16m)

New computer system tells them they have heaps and heaps of useless stock. But that is only half the difference, rest being this stupidly difficult market.

No worries we’ll catch up in second half ....they said that last year but didn’t deliver.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310418

No surprises here.!

sb9
16-11-2017, 08:54 AM
Oh dear ..another dismal STU update

Half year EBIT down $10m on last year (which was $16m)

New computer system tells them they have heaps and heaps of useless stock. But that is only half the difference, rest being this stupidly difficult market.

No worries we’ll catch up in second half ....they said that last year but didn’t deliver.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310418

Could this be setting the trend for building and construction industry (STU,FBU,MPG) in general for FY18 that things are gonna be very tough...

winner69
16-11-2017, 08:59 AM
Could this be setting the trend for building and construction industry (STU,FBU,MPG) in general for FY18 that things are gonna be very tough...

......and F19 won’t be any better

Fred114
07-03-2018, 01:15 PM
HY report announces EBIT for six months of $6.7M (HY17: 16.1M) and NPAT of $3.8 (10.6M). Impairment costs done, and future now brighter......

https://steelandtube.co.nz/2018-half-year-report-%E2%80%93-online-digital-version

percy
22-05-2018, 07:36 AM
Another "Oh Dear" coming.?

winner69
22-05-2018, 07:41 AM
Another "Oh Dear" coming.?

No no percy ......not again surely ....but this sounds a bit ominious -

The halt is to allow for STU’s board to complete a review of the company's financial performance year to date and consider certain other factors that are likely to impact on earnings guidance previously provided to the market.

Wonder what’s happened to the rumours about corporate activity

Filthy
22-05-2018, 07:52 AM
you missed 'asset valuations' out.

maybe they have sold their Blenheim Road site which they took to market per the announcement on the 3rd?

Balance
22-05-2018, 07:54 AM
you missed 'asset valuations' out.

maybe they have sold their Blenheim Road site which they took to market per the announcement on the 3rd?

And found that the value is a lot less than they have in the books?

Filthy
22-05-2018, 08:08 AM
And found that the value is a lot less than they have in the books?

Yep– that’s plausible. They seemed to be pretty upbeat about its value though - “Steel& Tube believes the Blenheim Rd property will be very attractive to potential landlords. The property is expected to be one of the leading industrial investment opportunities in the South Island market for 2018.”

Was it is 2016 that the divi was increased because of property sales? i.e. by selling and & leasing back their site at Seaview? Who knows – might be a positive update coming (…..now wouldn’t that be a surprise!)

Balance
22-05-2018, 08:12 AM
Yep– that’s plausible. They seemed to be pretty upbeat about its value though - “Steel& Tube believes the Blenheim Rd property will be very attractive to potential landlords. The property is expected to be one of the leading industrial investment opportunities in the South Island market for 2018.”

Was it is 2016 that the divi was increased because of property sales? i.e. by selling and & leasing back their site at Seaview? Who knows – might be a positive update coming (…..now wouldn’t that be a surprise!)

Certainly a shortage of good quality industrial properties out there for investors and the syndicated managers (fees! Fees! FEES!) but my understanding is that single purpose properties leased by one tenant is not as attractive and sought after as multi-purpose and multi-tenant properties.

winner69
22-05-2018, 08:17 AM
Maybe Zero Commission making a full takeover at $1.88

winner69
22-05-2018, 08:26 AM
Any property sale ramifications not relevant to the upcoming announcement ..it’s about financial performance performance etc

Guidance was -

•Excluding the one-off inventory valuation adjustment included in the half-year earnings guidance, full year EBIT for the 2018 financial year is expected to be materially the same as the 2017 financial year EBIT of $31.1 million, as the impacts from recent price changes and the benefits of change actions are realised.

So the expected better second half won’t eventuate (again) and there is a few other demons in the business

Balance
22-05-2018, 08:31 AM
Any property sale ramifications not relevant to the upcoming announcement ..it’s about financial performance performance etc

Guidance was -

•Excluding the one-off inventory valuation adjustment included in the half-year earnings guidance, full year EBIT for the 2018 financial year is expected to be materially the same as the 2017 financial year EBIT of $31.1 million, as the impacts from recent price changes and the benefits of change actions are realised.

So the better second half didn’t eventuate (again) and there is a few other demons in the business

What a freaking mess the whole property construction and development sector in NZ has been.

FBU, STU, MPG, MVN - yuk!

winner69
22-05-2018, 08:31 AM
Sounds like H1 is going to be a lot worse that $10m less than last year as they indicated a while ago.

winner69
22-05-2018, 09:44 AM
Hard to believe share price was over 260 last July ....outlook was have been bright back then

winner69
23-05-2018, 08:00 AM
There is a few positive things in the announcement so besides a huge loss for F18 and breach of banking convenants and having a computer system that doesn’t seem to work the new and refreshed management team are on to it and the future is all honky dory

If you can actually work out what’s going on from this announcement you are pretty clever
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/318333/279695.pdf

waikare
23-05-2018, 08:02 AM
No no percy ......not again surely ....but this sounds a bit ominious -

The halt is to allow for STU’s board to complete a review of the company's financial performance year to date and consider certain other factors that are likely to impact on earnings guidance previously provided to the market.

Wonder what’s happened to the rumours about corporate activity

Trading halt lifted 8.52am, no other details...……………..

Jantar
23-05-2018, 08:02 AM
There is a few positive things in the announcement so besides a huge loss for F18 and breach of banking convenants and having a computer system that doesn’t seem to work the new and refreshed management team are on to it and the future is all honky dory

If you can actually work out what’s going on from this announcement you are pretty clever
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/318333/279695.pdf
What it tells me is to get rid of the last few STU shares I still own.

JoeGrogan
23-05-2018, 08:07 AM
There is a few positive things in the announcement so besides a huge loss for F18 and breach of banking convenants and having a computer system that doesn’t seem to work the new and refreshed management team are on to it and the future is all honky dory

If you can actually work out what’s going on from this announcement you are pretty clever
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/318333/279695.pdf

Wow that is nasty... pretty much sums up the construction sector in NZ.

Snoopy
23-05-2018, 08:14 AM
If you can actually work out what’s going on from this announcement you are pretty clever


This is really sad and it looks like I may have had a lucky escape. I was an indirect shareholder in STU for many years through my shareholding in ASX listed Arrium. I considered buying a serious direct sized STU stake, just to take advantage of the imputation credits that I wasn't getting with my Arrium holding. What put me off was how relatively unprofitable the Arrium held steel supply business on the Australian side of the Tasman was. I became uneasy that if they couldn't make a really good go of it 'over there', why are we in a much smaller market so much more profitable? What today's event tells me is that, fundamentally the steel supply business is tough on both sides of the Tasman.

SNOOPY

winner69
23-05-2018, 08:17 AM
Wow that is nasty... pretty much sums up the construction sector in NZ.

Not all bad - Metro Glass still going solidly and haven’t had announcements like this

winner69
23-05-2018, 08:30 AM
So even on a normalised basis without counting the bad stuff they might make $2m ebit in H2 when they said a few months ago they were on track to making $17m (to get full year to $31m)

Market has got heaps more competitive eh

Lesson / tip - never believe ANY company who says they will recover lost ground in the second half of the year. It rarely happens.

winner69
23-05-2018, 08:31 AM
This is really sad and it looks like I may have had a lucky escape. I was an indirect shareholder in STU for many years through my shareholding in ASX listed Arrium. I considered buying a serious direct sized STU stake, just to take advantage of the imputation credits that I wasn't getting with my Arrium holding. What put me off was how relatively unprofitable the Arrium held steel supply business on the Australian side of the Tasman was. I became uneasy that if they couldn't make a really good go of it 'over there', why are we in a much smaller market so much more profitable? What today's event tells me is that, fundamentally the steel supply business is tough on both sides of the Tasman.

SNOOPY

Snoops - hope the Allied announcement next week is not as sad

BeeBop
23-05-2018, 08:51 AM
I managed to make a bit of money out of STU over the years but I cut away from them a couple of years ago as nothing was really changing there - too predicable and sad.

winner69
23-05-2018, 10:35 AM
Hope not too many punters hurting today

Bit bored today and WINX.AU is in hiatus so got my punting money out and got some STU this morning at average under 150

might be a long time shareholder from here ....ha ha

But watching the action closely

winner69
23-05-2018, 12:17 PM
Malpass said he hoped the market hadn't lost faith in the company,

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/366e1769/steel-tube-expects-2019-profit-following-downgrade-shares-drop-21.html

Shares didn’t quiet down to where they were last century

winner69
23-05-2018, 12:29 PM
Study in US showed about 20% of reported corporate profits are eventually ‘reversed’ ....ie they never really existed in the first place when they write down asset values and restructure and have to make adjustments for inventory and debtors and a whole lot of other stuff ...all abnormal non-recurring items of course

STU have made about $150m npat over the last 9 years and now going to make one off non-cash adjustments/writeoffs of about $40m ...pretty good effort eh

winner69
23-05-2018, 12:31 PM
Hope not too many punters hurting today

Bit bored today and WINX.AU is in hiatus so got my punting money out and got some STU this morning at average under 150

might be a long time shareholder from here ....ha ha

But watching the action closely


Made 11 cents or so and out at the moment.

WINX.AU gives better odds but no money back guarantee there

percy
24-05-2018, 08:24 AM
Ugly...............................

winner69
24-05-2018, 09:04 AM
Ugly...............................

STU as a ticker code always reminds me of Stu on kids TV in the 70’s. He was an icon that guy.

Can’t say ‘Nice one Stu’ with this outfit can we

percy
24-05-2018, 09:59 AM
STU as a ticker code always reminds me of Stu on kids TV in the 70’s. He was an icon that guy.

Can’t say ‘Nice one Stu’ with this outfit can we

Certainly not a 'Nice one Stu.'
Turnarounds usually take longer, and cost more than anyone expected.

Balance
28-05-2018, 08:19 AM
Certainly not a 'Nice one Stu.'
Turnarounds usually take longer, and cost more than anyone expected.

Rights issue inevitable imo.

Debt of over $100m and market cap of $140m - trading on an enterprise multiple of 15 times!

Banks will want the debt down to $60m as a minimum in the credit risk adverse environment we have entered.

Balance
28-05-2018, 10:57 AM
Rights issue inevitable imo.

Debt of over $100m and market cap of $140m - trading on an enterprise multiple of 15 times!

Banks will want the debt down to $60m as a minimum in the credit risk adverse environment we have entered.

Potentially just like with FBU, an underwritten rights issue of 1:2 at $1.00 to raise $45m?

Beagle
28-05-2018, 11:19 AM
Rights issue inevitable imo.

Debt of over $100m and market cap of $140m - trading on an enterprise multiple of 15 times!

Banks will want the debt down to $60m as a minimum in the credit risk adverse environment we have entered.

Agree, CEO nice and confident about FY19 but then again I suppose he would say that in the circumstances.

Balance
28-05-2018, 11:41 AM
Agree, CEO nice and confident about FY19 but then again I suppose he would say that in the circumstances.

I think he has taken the right approach - clean out all the crap and blame on previous management (without being so obvious).

Next step is to get the balance sheet into shape so that there is no financial pressure to worry about as the businesses are restructured.

Balance
29-05-2018, 01:02 PM
Rights issue inevitable imo.

Debt of over $100m and market cap of $140m - trading on an enterprise multiple of 15 times!

Banks will want the debt down to $60m as a minimum in the credit risk adverse environment we have entered.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/75badc2c/steel-tube-won-t-pay-final-dividend-may-need-equity-raising-craigs-says.html

Craigs must be reading this site for inspiration?

:D

Scrunch
18-06-2018, 01:05 PM
Hope not too many punters hurting today

Bit bored today and WINX.AU is in hiatus so got my punting money out and got some STU this morning at average under 150

might be a long time shareholder from here ....ha ha

But watching the action closely

So far this is looking a very astute purchase. Touched $1.70 today so around half the fall from $2 to lows around $1.40 has been recovered.

boysy
18-06-2018, 01:41 PM
Got oversold on the way down picked up a few of late - someone seems keen on buying at these levels that’s for sure ....

boysy
02-07-2018, 09:04 AM
Looks to be the banks have provided a waiver for the covenant breach on the basis the sales proceeds from the just completed property settlement are used to retire debt. Perhaps that long dreaded CR isn’t quite so likely afterall ....

steveb
25-07-2018, 09:02 AM
Now with the possibility of a class action lawsuit regarding the steel mesh fiasco:-
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=273131&ref=rss

It looks like in my laymans opinion a quick settlement could be the best way forward?

bull....
07-08-2018, 07:51 AM
huge discounted rights issue , must really need the money bad at such a big discount

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321785

winner69
07-08-2018, 08:04 AM
huge discounted rights issue , must really need the money bad at such a big discount

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321785

More trouble at mill than what has been disclosed ...hope wasnt a strategy after all.

At least getting in early .....if there is a big downturn next year punters might not be too keen to part with their cash

winner69
07-08-2018, 08:13 AM
They say -

“The capital raised will be used to repay debt, strengthening our balance sheet and giving us greater flexibility to execute our strategy and deliver better value for our shareholders. In addition, we expect the capital raising to strengthen Steel & Tube’s share register and help create liquidity which will benefit all shareholders.”

Like it when one plays the old ‘liquidity’ card ....clever

percy
07-08-2018, 08:24 AM
They say -

“The capital raised will be used to repay debt, strengthening our balance sheet and giving us greater flexibility to execute our strategy and deliver better value for our shareholders. In addition, we expect the capital raising to strengthen Steel & Tube’s share register and help create liquidity which will benefit all shareholders.”

Like it when one plays the old ‘liquidity’ card ....clever

Certainly will with 82% more shares on issue.
Going from current 90.6mil shares to 165.6mil.

Beagle
07-08-2018, 08:29 AM
A sector to avoid like the plague in my opinion. They've been so "successful" at delivering value for shareholders to date why anyone would trust them with more is beyond my comprehension.

Balance
07-08-2018, 09:00 AM
Rights issue inevitable imo.

Debt of over $100m and market cap of $140m - trading on an enterprise multiple of 15 times!

Banks will want the debt down to $60m as a minimum in the credit risk adverse environment we have entered.




http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7...aigs-says.html

Craigs must be reading this site for inspiration?

Totally expected.

winner69
08-08-2018, 07:46 AM
First part of cap raise done and dusted with $20m raised

Chair of Steel & Tube, Susan Paterson, said: “We received strong support from existing institutional investors and were pleased to welcome several new large investors to the Steel & Tube register, including a number of New Zealand and Australian investment funds.The interest in the stock and significant support by sophisticated and rigorous investors, demonstrated confidence in the refresh of the board and management and the strategic direction of the company.


Great paragraph by Susan .....all hunky dory going forward ....but methinks most existing investors just averaging down and new investors smell a bargain.

Good time to have a punt I reckon ....wonder what it will open at today .....I put a bid in at 120?

trader_jackson
08-08-2018, 10:31 AM
Will this be like Tower and be the beginning of a turnaround?
Or will STU keep stumbling along...
40m EBITDA in FY21 would make the cap raise price pretty cheap

Beagle
08-08-2018, 12:18 PM
First part of cap raise done and dusted with $20m raised

Chair of Steel & Tube, Susan Paterson, said: “We received strong support from existing institutional investors and were pleased to welcome several new large investors to the Steel & Tube register, including a number of New Zealand and Australian investment funds.The interest in the stock and significant support by sophisticated and rigorous investors, demonstrated confidence in the refresh of the board and management and the strategic direction of the company.


Great paragraph by Susan .....all hunky dory going forward ....but methinks most existing investors just averaging down and new investors smell a bargain.

Good time to have a punt I reckon ....wonder what it will open at today .....I put a bid in at 120?

People buying PPH shares off the founder at over $4 thought they'd got a bargain...just saying ! Is there enough flea powder in the country to fix the infestation on this dog ?

You can take this companies ability to forecast with a grain of salt. Notice how they said normalised profits will be XYZ. Doesn't that make one wonder how many more so called one off extraordinary items, restructuring, e.t.c. will need to be still accounted for ? If you see a cockroach in the kitchen and squash it there's ALWAYS a LOT more.

Snow Leopard
08-08-2018, 02:16 PM
Think there will nearly 166M shares after all this is done.

FY19 Estimate $25M EBIT would then be about $0.104 NPAT.

'Normalised' $35M EBIT down the road would then be about 'normalised' $0.148 NPAT.


Might be worth a small punt at $1.28 cum rights or $1.20 ex rights for me, but just as happy to stay off the register.

Balance
10-08-2018, 08:00 AM
Think there will nearly 166M shares after all this is done.

FY19 Estimate $25M EBIT would then be about $0.104 NPAT.

'Normalised' $35M EBIT down the road would then be about 'normalised' $0.148 NPAT.

Might be worth a small punt at $1.28 cum rights or $1.20 ex rights for me, but just as happy to stay off the register.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321830

Read this placement very carefully and consider where the sp is likely to go in the short term.