AUD.NZD

[arco]

.
Potentially a short term short. No position at the moment. Kumo has currently resisted an attempt to penetrate, together with Chikou against the plot.


http://i34.tinypic.com/2jcir1g.gif

[arco]

Watching now for a potential turn inside the Kumo

http://i35.tinypic.com/2lliomg.gif

[peat]

completed a bearish gartley overnite at your blue box area arco

[arco]

Morning Peat

Yes, starting to look interesting.

As the 'B' leg almost reached 618 I tend to be a bit cautious in
case there is an extension of the 'D' leg (forming BF).

http://i35.tinypic.com/20f2eeu.gif

[ollie]

I see the nzd weakening against the aud, do you see this trend continuing ? thanks

[Novitiate]

Hi there - I don't trade currency, but am looking to buy some more shares is aussie. Not sure which ones yet, so was thinking of locking in current NZD/AUD rates for now. Where's the best place for some short-medium term analysis on NZD/Aud?

[macduffy]

Not great news for exporters to Aust if this analysis is anywhere right. But good for next winter's holiday in Queensland!

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=75EB730A-CBEF-5AFB-20D819805891635B

[peat]

Several respected commentators , namely Arco and Max McKegg have commented on the future direction of AUD/NZD and that the breakout above the 1.30 area is significant. I always find it difficult to trade as it is quite volatile and moves a lot without actually breaking the underlying trend. I've seen this gartley pop up now so will be adding to my existing position.

[JBmurc]

I certainly glad I invest my funds into the ASX many years agos for AUD 1.07c brought some back the other day AUD 1.29

[peat]

some event has kicked the trade into +ve territory pretty quickly ;+)

[arco]

Hi Peat

530 pips and counting

Yes, I think we did quite well for longer term holders with a run up of around 410 pips on the long trade - the yellow box target was just touched. Over the last 3 days I've been suggesting a retrace, and additionally last nights short term chart also gave members up to 120 pips



http://i43.tinypic.com/ve82l3.gif

[Bilo]

2579
I had almost convinced myself that butterflies were caused by the machinations of those who manage/manipulate currencies. But could someone have been working on AUD/NZD for 20years? To me it seems likely that this is a butterfly and it will complete but what will the target be? Probably one for ARCO. Where will it go from there? Probably what John Key is working on?

[roddy]

Hi DA
I was long from 1.275 area i am now thinking its ripe for a short with the prospects of RBA possibly lowering AND THE D leg 1.161 seems to be acting as resistance

3677

[dumbass]

Hey Rod, nice trade , funny you should bring this cross up as i have been doing some trading on it over the last couple of months.

its a nice technical cross respecting technical patterns nicely.

the harmonic pattern you have drawn actually works a little better if you view it as a bearish crab even though the 1.61 reversal level is the same.

I can give you some links if you want more info on it.

features are:

reversal zone is 1.61 XA , XA 88.6 , BC 2.61

this has been a nice example and have had some good trades out of it.

personally i think were close to a short but i would like to see one more run to challenge 1.32 , it may have done its dash but the low risk short entry is around 1.32 area. looks like a triangle on h1 which may mean a little further to go

[dumbass]

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/AUDNZDH4.jpg

[dumbass]

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/audnzdd.jpg

[dumbass]

maybe something like this rod but i wouldnt trade it , it doesnt look like a top and we havent got divergence on indicators yet.

im going to wait and follow action a little before pulling he trigger.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1-4.jpg

[roddy]

Hi DA yes if it gets to 1.32 would be good its also a major support resistance level going back early 2010 apart from its .618 level
i kind of lump anything which isnt a gartley into a butterfly irrespective whether its a bat or crab etc a bit of laziness on my part!
thanks for the charts , i will wait for the top to develop and hopefully divergence
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

wow look at the yen crosses , looks like BOJ has been busy.

[roddy]

DA yes i was tempted to chase it but thought better of it, probably because i havent got a reasonable expectancy day trading system !also surprised just how much aud and nzd have moved against the buck. looking at my daily charts the last daily spike jumped from similar levels to 80 but on that occasion the BOJ may of had nothing to do with it

[dumbass]

from what i understand when they intervene its just a straight US treasury purchase as they flood the market buying us dollars and therefore you see the big spike in all usd crosses.

man they must be talking massive amounts of capital to move the markets like that.

the fun you could have trading amounts like , dont tell me someone doesnt fire off a few options with that kind of information.

[Pumice]

Yeah how many USD does it take to make a move like that happen. I imagine a few SL triggers got taken out.

[roddy]

"the fun you could have trading amounts like , dont tell me someone doesnt fire off a few options with that kind of information.[/QUOTE]"

Perhaps DA maybe someone at MF Global who are now under investigation for hundreds of millions in missing client money, per NYT may be able to enlighten us

[dumbass]

anyone going to have a flutter on the RBA. should be more fun than the melbourne cup.

if its close to 1.0580 will short with a stop at 1.0630 pre announcement.

[roddy]

yes although a bit of an anti climax picked up 52 pips also had a short on aud/nzd if it broke support 1.2950

1.05410 1.04881

[dumbass]

hi rod , ive been bulding a short position from around 1.07 , i feel there should be more downside to come as european and us markets react to the rate cut.
i was looking to add before the rba anouncement but no joy.

[roddy]

Hi DA theres a nice Evening Star on the daily which no doubt you have spotted good call on picking the top!!!!!
i also watching an ascending triangle on the hrly CAD/USD at parity looking to enter if breaks upward

[dumbass]

hi rod , i have one eye on the sp500 , its sitting on a key support pivot at 1240 if we are going to rally it could be from here, if 1240 fails then we should see more risk liquidation which will fuel nzd and aud shorts.

[roddy]

Hi DA you were right about 1240 level on SP , I exited the cad trade with 88 pips as i saw shooting star on the 15 min

[dumbass]

im happy to close aud shorts, 350 + 320+ and nzd 95 +,

should see in the next couple of sessions if the bear is back on or the bulls are ready to run from here.

really reading conflicting signs on longer term direction so i will stay neutral.

sp 500 key level 1225 to keep the impulse move alive.

[roddy]

Great trading DA now i know why i have a second job and you are a full time trader
if i may ask when you entered short was it an elliot signal or gut feeling

[dumbass]

hi rod ,the rally from 93+ low in the aud looks corrective in its wave pattern but has gone further than it should and with gusto.

the recent top had an ending diagonal pattern and felt like a blow off reaction top in its final throws.

it never really felt like all the worlds problems had diasppeared and therefore as the aud stalled around 1.07 it seemed risk was cheap at that level.

i think the direction at the moment is difficult to call with certainty so will look to sell rallies in aud and nzd.

[dumbass]

Going to try a short rod on audusd and nzdusd
looks like its topping out at 10420 for aud will take a short from here with open target and 79.70 for kiwi.

[roddy]

Hi DA
nice call its been a profitable night for you i was out last night and didnt get to see your post nor any chart went to bed.
i am wondering why the kiwi is weaker than the Aussie
i googled diagonal pattern i have never had any experience of it before in this instance on the high of AUD it worked a treat

[dumbass]

hi rod , we are getting close to a short in the audnzd cross as this should be the final push higher .

i have no idea why its happening other than we were warned about it happening through aud nzd chart patterns.

personally it feels from a fundy perspective the kiwi should be stronger but thats why i only trade the charts. weird !

[Pumice]

Yikes.
I see NZ unemployment jumped up to 6.6% market was expecting it to fall
Imagine how bad it would have been without the RWC…

NZD will head south for a while I think
AUD/NZD pushing higher as you said DA.

[dumbass]

shorts moving along nicely audusd, 200 + 180 + and nzdusd 180+ , i still feel there is more to come so still open.

maybe rod there is a high in on aud nzd , got the divergence on all time frames , 5 wave pattern complete with good wave relationship .

we need to find a short entry against 1.3140 top with back up stop the 61.8 retracement at 1.32.

[roddy]

Hi DA i can see on daily RSI diverenge, so i will keep an eye out for another spike up.some traders trade the breakout
do you ever trade the breakout at lower levels 1.2950 or do you prfer to look for an entry as close as possible to PRZ

[dumbass]

hi roddy , its started to look positive for an short entry with a stop 131.50 this gives a favourable risk reward even if we were to make a market entry trade.

best entry is to look for a 50% ( 131.07 ) to 61.8% (131.16 ) retracement of the first wave down , the true first wave is from 131.43 to 130.72 so you have to position your fib retracement chart

on these points and you will see the price will respect the retracement levels better.

the first wave can retrace up to 100 % ( double top ) without screwing up the count.

im going to start scaling short from here.

[dumbass]

what i like about elliot wave is risk is so clearly defined so you can put some ridiculously big trades on as your only risking a few pips on a tight stop.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm1-1.jpg

[dumbass]

closed shorts aud 200 + 200 + and nzd 180+

i have a pattern on the kiwi to go long from here 78.22 with a stop 77.90, may be pushing my luck here but will give it a crack.

thats me done untill monday good luck guys

[roddy]

Hi DA great trading i have short on aud/nzd see how it goes and thanks for the advice
have a great weekend

[dumbass]

hi rod , long trades overnight worked well long nzd usd 140+ 120+ and aud 160+.

it was another ending diagonal that helped me nail the kiwi for risk of only 32 pips.

i have a nice looking short setting up soon but not yet on light crude clc1


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm1-2.jpg

[roddy]

Hi DA yes your longs worked well ,the ending diagonal seems to be quite a reliable pattern, from your experience do they occur much on a larger time frame.
i am still in aud/nzd as i have stop where you suggested and so far the chart is respecting 1.3145 level

[dumbass]

hi rod , yes i think we will have to be patient with audnzd but stop seems to be well positioned.

all elliot wave priciples work on all time frames from the m1 upwards.

i think the dollar crosses are the place to be at the moment , volatilty pretty good

im short kiwi 79.55 stop 79 .90 , it seems the aud goes down qiucker than the kiwi against the dollar so should see the audnzd heading in the desired direction.

watch 1261 and 1240 pivots for risk direction on sp500, seems we have had a failure at 1261 so will probably head back down.

[dumbass]

yet another ending diagonal in fifth wave position , this ones ok but not as pretty as the one before.

we have now got 5 waves down and 3 waves up with good wave relationships , i have put another short on at 79.45 as well as 79.50

risk is very well defined at the top of the pattern say 79.70 , so only 20 pips, say normal trading techniques would allow 100 pip stop , so

i can place bigger positions.

400k short on this one risking about $ 700 http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm1-3.jpg

[roddy]

yes i normally have a 100 to 150 pip stop just to give it some room, i understand now what you were saying the other day regard you can put on a large size position and still keep the amount of risk down to very low levels.
how long does it take to learn Elliot wave to your standard?

[dumbass]

chunky short going nicely rod , 150+ and plans for a lot more.

great call

[roddy]

i DA,
yes will be interesting how this plays out.Scott Carney has an initial target at B i will be encouraged as it pass`s through support
1.2950-30 level

[dumbass]

hi rod , hope you got a piece of the action overnight.

short aud,+110, +95 nzd +95 and audnzd still ticking along at 130+

au employment data at 1.30, whispers are it will be worse than anticipated , so may get a boost for short audnzd.

[roddy]

Hi DA Hey sorry for slow reply hadnt seen your post!Well done on the overnight trade,i lack the necessary skills hence my wider stops etc to catch these lucrative short term movements
I am mostly a medium term trend trader so i missed out on the overnight drop in the KIWI and AUD
my entry is a 20 day breakout same as Donchian channel which got triggered
today .7808,i also look for confirmation on cci rsi and major support resistance levels etc
so today am short Kiwi.7808 and Eur 1.3517
3688

[roddy]

Still short EUR AUD/NZD and kiwi , Kiwi in the money at present eur under water and aud/nzd about break even .i only ever risk 1 and never more than 1.5% per trade with a 150-200 pip stop to give it as much room as possible if need be,just got to be patient ,i will eventually be stopped or in the money,the market will decide!
cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Update on trades got stopped out on short aud/nzd, holding short still on EUR, NZD and Short the cable. Up around 320 pips at present ,however it varies between that and 220 pips will keep holding until my trailing stop gets hit


Ticket # Symbol Date Bought Sold
07244592 GBP/USD 11/14/11 7:10 PM 1.58981
11/20/11 7:12 PM 1.57685
07245626 NZD/USD 11/15/11 4:02 AM 0.77165 0.00
11/20/11 7:12 PM 0.75521
07245636 EUR/USD 11/15/11 4:07 AM 1.35531 0.00
11/20/11 7:12 PM 1.35268

cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Hi DA was reading Jamie Seattle and he saying AUD/NZD since March the count is 5 down 3 up would that mean that it may drop from here?
shorts on gbp nzd and Euro coming along nicely in the black 550 pips total as of this morning

[dumbass]

hi roddy , yeah im back short , im trying to set this one up as a medium term position.

the probably is you have to give them a bit of space to breathe , last postion was up 150 at one stage but got stopped out at b/e.

on the positive side im in at a better entry than previous trade.

currently short caterpillar, gold, oil . just cant get into kiwi as its not retracing at all , looks pretty terminal.

i got stopped out at breakeven ( loss with commision ) on dow trade.

i am holiday at the moment so will post charts later on.

your looking good rod with your trades , well done.

[roddy]

Have a well earned break DA
Gold is looking interesting with an uptrend line break and the 14 per cci picking up divergence both on the daily. thinking your short entries will be somewhere near the highs
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

hi rod , im trying to get some medium term shorts going on gold , oil , aud nzd .

so far so good but im anticipating a retracement which hopefully will not catch stops which are at b/e.

thanks rod