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arco
25-02-2005, 03:27 PM
This Gartley pattern could provide an interesting short
for the medium term.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/022505.gif

Halebop
25-02-2005, 03:54 PM
Hi Arco. I'd be interested to see your chart but it appears to be broken.

arco
25-02-2005, 04:31 PM
Hello Halebop

Not sure why its not showing for you ...its seems
to be OK for me.

Does anyone else have the same problem ??

Please try this link for the chart

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31542&u=arco&a=.AAA-Arco%20Charts&id=916

edit...new link




A

OldRider
25-02-2005, 04:53 PM
Neither linking for me.

Halebop
25-02-2005, 05:15 PM
Hi again Arco,

Your server is perhaps password protected?


quote:403 Error

Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /mycharts/charts/arco/022505.gif on this server.

arco
25-02-2005, 09:48 PM
OK Guys, can someone try this please and
let me know.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31542&u=arco&a=.AAA-Arco%20Charts&id=916

miner
26-02-2005, 07:32 AM
Worked fine Arco,thanks for the chart.

Cheers
Miner

arco
03-03-2005, 11:35 AM
First entry +176 at close

Second entry +50 at close

Watch for possible minor resistance
area around 10742

Trailing stop.

Xerof
10-05-2005, 03:38 PM
Check out the daily chart for this pair.

Have we seen a 5 wave move down in this cross, to circa 1.0550, coinciding with the same support level seen mid-December? Looks like a turn-around trade here for perhaps a 3 wave correction back up.

I have had a 'lazy' offer in the NZD/AUD at .9485, but hasn't made it there, and looks like it won't.

Any fine tuning comments or contrarian views?



Xerof

slam
10-05-2005, 04:27 PM
Hi Xerof
Where are you getting a chart for the pair?
none of my systems have a chart available for aud/nzd
Cheers Slam

Xerof
10-05-2005, 04:51 PM
I use this for oddball crosses

http://www.fxstreet.com/

go to live charts panel, File, change symbol, more, and type in any combo you want.

Xerof

arco
10-05-2005, 05:17 PM
Xerof

I would personally be watching to see if it
can break back through circa 1.0620.

Old S=R? perhaps.

arco

slam
10-05-2005, 05:20 PM
Cheers Xerof
Handy place. see what you mean about the daily on the pair, even to my untrained eye, looks like a nice bounce of long term resistance.
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
10-05-2005, 05:37 PM
Yes I see what you mean, Arco, supported around 1.0630/40 area on 2 recent occasions. (I'll have to draw more lines:):))

Xerof

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:03 PM
Baah, this one has snuck under the radar, seems to have now broken that 1.0630 area with some conviction.

Can't back every horse in the race I guess.

Xerof

Dough Boy
15-09-2005, 03:46 PM
Currently the rebalancing of the NZD:AUD exchange rate is one of the few bets that will most probably pay-off with a 10% + gain yet their seems to be so little media discussion or talk even on this forum. Even since the NZD climbed to its height I have been reweighting my shares and cash into Aussie.

arco
21-09-2005, 11:06 AM
Dough Boy

In your opinion where do you see this going to?

Let me know your thoughts and I will calculate
some technical targets.


arco

Xerof
12-10-2005, 05:59 PM
Well Doughboy's presence was brief and non-responsive, but for his benefit here's a blend of EW and yes, you guessed it, a cabbage white.

He's probably already sold this rally early, but for us FX Prima <s>Ma</s>donna's (not to be confused with the fallen Madonna with the big boobies) there might just be another final leg up before we quietly, and without fanfare, sell the hell out of this cross (the invisible hand)

http://img447.imageshack.us/img447/3168/nzdaud7de.png

Xerof (a very modest C cup FYG)

arco
12-10-2005, 08:30 PM
Interesting Xerof

My chart is up-sidedown (AUD-NZD) and currently working a EOD Gartley. I am on the claptop at the moment, but will try to post a chart tomorrow.

So do you think we should be converting all our spare NZD cash into Aussie notes?

arco

blackcap
12-10-2005, 09:25 PM
Hi fellas, new to this trading game and must confess I take a dim view of charting. However the pictures are nice.

Have shorted the NZ/AUD at the mo and am waiting to short NZ/USD if it gets close to .70.

Does anyone out there use any forex tipping services and if so can they recommend any or is it the old adage that the good ones are kept secret with a lot of rubbish in the market place?

Xerof
12-10-2005, 11:15 PM
Arco,

yes can see the gartley on the daily, and probably the NZD/AUD daily has more potential to go higher (AUD/NZD lower) than my 120 min chart indicates, however was only showing initial 1.272% target

conversion of all cash to AUD? - I was over-dramatising but does seem to be nearing the top end of a well worn range. Nothing funnymental to suggest it won't continue to trade the wider 85/95 range for less than eternity[xx(][xx(]

Blackcap - greetings

you'll find almost all tipsheets are technically based - sorry about that mate, but if you're serious about successfully margin trading FX, then best to do your research on demo account for at least 12 months before fronting up with your capital - its not the easiest craft to ply

You'll find plenty of referrals on the Forex threads right here, and genuine, mostly profitable trading strategies - and best of all - no ramping

Xerof

blackcap
13-10-2005, 07:55 AM
Thanks for the suggestions Xerof. I have been playing the demo for a while before going for real but find that you dont have the same discipline when doing it on demo and this tends to distort and skew your returns.

Have been following the discussions on here too and find it very interesting. Keep up the good work. Im sure its appreciated by a lot more people than just me.

I also know what your saying about technicals and currency. It almost seems the two go hand in hand.

arco
13-10-2005, 06:11 PM
Here we are then......at last

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_906.gif

arco

Xerof
13-10-2005, 06:32 PM
Yep, just about in the batters box.

I'm being patient though Arco, looking for the dipping ball into the back of the red zone, possibly next week if all goes to plan.

Hate to bring in fundamentals, but should see a flurry of nervous selling of AUD/NZD prior to RBNZ

Xerof

arco
14-10-2005, 12:05 PM
Xerof

There was a 85 pip dive into and back out of the red box with the EOD forming a Doji on Rooters charts.

How do you see this pair now fundamentally?

arco

Xerof
14-10-2005, 12:32 PM
You beat me to it - this was my next topic to update.

Yeah, another one that got away I think - wave 5 looks completed, doji candle as you mention, and clearly made it into the zone.

May get another spike before next week, but seems this shorter term opportunity may have been missed.

But again, I'm encouraged by the potentially high strike rates these patterns produce - I think I'll become a collector

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/1276/nzdaud7cw.png

Xerof

Xerof
17-10-2005, 08:17 PM
Second lick of the icecream coming up for those interested in selling this cross. Currently 9280 and might be able to be a little greedier this time

Xerof

blackcap
17-10-2005, 08:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Second lick of the icecream coming up for those interested in selling this cross. Currently 9280 and might be able to be a little greedier this time

Xerof


So at what point would you sell Xerof? Im already short, but you reackon its time to short it now?

I cant help feel its going to trade round the 0.88 range again soon.

arco
17-10-2005, 09:38 PM
The action is now playing in the red box (see my previous chart) which is one of the possible reversal area, however no turn around signal is confirmed at this moment and the oscilllator is still following the plot.

No poistion taken as yet.

arco

Xerof
17-10-2005, 10:22 PM
Blackcap - .9350 (1.0695 inverted) should prove fairly resilient, being 1.618% retracement level, but might just be a bit too much to ask for.

Arco, where's Major Gann lurking on this one?

blackcap
18-10-2005, 07:31 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof


Blackcap - .9350 (1.0695 inverted) should prove fairly resilient, being 1.618% retracement level, but might just be a bit too much to ask for.

Arco, where's Major Gann lurking on this one?


Thanks for your explanation Xerof. Im a novice to the game, but find it interesting. Will have a closer look. Thank you and arco for your charts and comments too.

Regards

arco
18-10-2005, 08:26 AM
Morning Xerof

Major Gann at 7422.
I will try to post an updated chart once I get the EOD download from Rooters.

arco

Xerof
18-10-2005, 08:32 AM
Arco, that'll be the other battalion - for AUD.USD?

Xerof

arco
18-10-2005, 08:43 AM
Hi Xerof

Apologies, a typo, should read.....1.0742

(AUD/NZD - inverse of your chart)

arco

arco
18-10-2005, 09:42 AM
Updating chart

Still ticking away nicely. The red box is a possible area for turnaround so keep a watch on that for any reversal signals. As mentioned some Gann support exists around 1.0742 which may also assist. However, the oscillator is not in divergence presently.

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101805_126.gif

Xerof
18-10-2005, 12:07 PM
The 1.0700/50 area is the Gartley turnaround zone, but a break below 1.0700'ish would give me butterflies Arco. I presume those lower boxes are cabbage white traps?

Xerof

arco
18-10-2005, 12:17 PM
Hi Xerof

Yes they are the next southbound target zones, so IMO always best to wait for a clear reversal signal before getting set for the northerly move coming eventually.

arco

Xerof
19-10-2005, 09:10 AM
Nice probe into the zone last night, not quite to where I was lurking with an offer, but time is on our side I feel...

Xerof

Ooh, maybe not, just noticed that we might get a doji on the daily close, so todays activity might tell us something

arco
19-10-2005, 11:12 AM
Xerof

Yes the Doji on Rooters EOD has a close of .0744 - not a million miles from my Gann support calc at .0742 ;)

Looks interesting, but patience is required.

arco

slam
21-10-2005, 02:32 PM
Ticking down nicley over last few hours

Slam

Xerof
21-10-2005, 03:47 PM
Has met my target, no real sign of a top, but sold NZD at 9350

On my chart posted above, its met 1.272% extension of smaller butterfly, and 78.6% of larger Gartley.

Surely that must count for something [:0][:0]

Xerof

peat
21-10-2005, 07:51 PM
1.069518716577540106951871657754 just approximately

peat
21-10-2005, 08:14 PM
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/4231/audnzd211020055zy.jpg

well it sure seems like a bullish gartley to me zerof

Xerof
21-10-2005, 08:22 PM
copy your image link from the second band of options below the thumbnails peat, then take out the extra bits, just leaving the image code. The thumbnails don't seem to work....

Haven't got a calculator that goes to that many decimals, so will take your word for it mate

yes definitely a bullish G, but could develop a pair of wings and go lower (or higher, if you remain loyal to the NZD and quote it as lead currency:D:D)

Xerof

peat
21-10-2005, 08:25 PM
hope thats not too small for your old eyes ;)

Xerof
21-10-2005, 08:29 PM
its abit dark init - best you print them during the day [8D][8D]- wotisit - some african poisonous snake?:)

scale it down to 60% before you save it to your temp files

peat
21-10-2005, 08:37 PM
yeh i'll shrink them in future sorry.....
normally use candles too.... but just wanted to make the shape clearer

peat
24-10-2005, 12:54 PM
when does the bullish gartley get broken ?

Xerof
24-10-2005, 01:50 PM
See the chart for details, but the larger Gartley (Blue) has probably already gone a little further than "ideal" (AB=CD).

The smaller bullish butterfly (Red) though, is still probing the reversal zone - this is what I am relying on for a turnaround trade.

But if the larger Gartley were to evolve into a full scale butterfly, there is quite some way to go lower, targeting 1.0400 to 1.0200

Under 10600 and it'll be all over Rover, I would think

Not entirely sure if my larger gartley is valid, and of course it is dangerous to 'front-run' an anticipated completion anyway. Even the smaller butterfly has not displayed any turnaround ....

Arco has a third formation (shown on his last graph), where the formation completed and is still running down. He has some targets shown on that graph.

And he is right to suggest waiting for completion and definite signs of a turnaround before entering.

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/5197/audnzd3us.png

Xerof

arco
25-10-2005, 09:08 AM
Good Morning Xerof

With respect, the red Butterfly cannot be classed as valid because the C leg is higher than the A leg.

I will post an updated chart ASAP.

arco - back in the Hot Seat

Xerof
25-10-2005, 09:16 AM
quite right, I missed putting the first AB leg in from the A point of the blue formation, meaning it completed a Gartley and is still going down the yellow brick road.

[|)][|)]Xerof[|)][|)]

Nup - thats no gartley at all - AB does not equal CD

Ah well back to the drawing board

arco
25-10-2005, 09:32 AM
Hi Xerof

Amazingly those bastar*d sharpes can sometimes work.

Heres the updated chart.

The action has now reached the lower red/blue target boxes (as shown in the previous charts). Oscillator is showing some signs of flattening out and I have calculated some minor Gann support in the 1.0620 region.

Reversal may be just around the corner.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_712.gif

arco

Xerof
25-10-2005, 09:39 AM
Oh yes, thats the same one I was attempting to portray - I'll leave it to the expert - anyway I prefer it the other way --- so to speak:D:D

Xerof

slam
26-10-2005, 08:12 AM
Nice Long Green Yesterday
Took a long at 0695

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
26-10-2005, 09:47 AM
One promising sign.....minor low posted on the daily, at last....also long at 1.069518716577540106951871657754 just approximately (cheers, Peat;))

http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/6616/audnzd6so.png

Xerof

Xerof
27-10-2005, 08:03 AM
cut at 9309 (10742), at 8.56am.... wait for OCR dust to settle now before going back in

Xerof
28-10-2005, 05:51 PM
Well, I think the dust has settled, and it's more of the same IMV. It only managed the weakest of bounces (retracement) to 10760 (9290)or so, before turning turtle again.

This cross needs to hold around current levels, otherwise we may see a continuation lower for a L/T retest of the 1.0500/1.0600, (9450/9430) which has been the multi-year reversal zone as far back as I can recall. Below that lies the infamous but elusive parity (which is 1.00 whichever way you quote it[^][^]

I'll let you know venue for the parity party....if I'm still on this mortal coil at the time....

Xerof

arco
03-11-2005, 09:37 AM
Morning All

The short based on the Butterfly set up gave southbound riders circa 410 pips.

Now, based on the second Hammer entry into the lower target boxes I have gone long between .0665 - .0669

+60, +53, +46

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110305b_751.gif

arco

Xerof
03-11-2005, 10:03 AM
I also went long at 10661[:p][:p] but have taken it off the table already at 10712

Will be back in though

This Gann DGL stuff is interesting Arco, have been distracted a little whilst doing all the reading and coming to grips with what the lines all mean.

This is not a recommendation to do anything, but I have multiple Gann [u]SUPPORT</u> for NZD at 6900, and AUD at 7400. Perhaps you might like to confirm if your methods come up with the same? Daily charts.

Also, had Gann support yesterday on GBP.USD at 17600 (so squared up another short I had taken - just as well....)

TIA

Xerof

arco
03-11-2005, 03:52 PM
Hi Xerof

Yes, the DGL's are quite good once you get the knack, and good value for money I would say, as you get free updates form Don on a regular basis.

Obviously there are many points where A,B,C can go and I use longer term dates as well. My figures seem to sit roughly in the same area as you mention.

One important point that you may have picked up is that 'A' date is always the highest(lowest) close, and B/C dates are always the highest (lowest) point of the bar.

I have had the course for some years and really need to read it again.[:I]

arco

PS. Closed all my AUD.NZD at lunchtime and have placed orders lower down.

Xerof
03-11-2005, 04:20 PM
Yes got that. The piece of software that a user wrote for use on Esignal does it automatically. It's a bit like 'Gann for Dummies'

Choosing appropriate V and inverted V formations seems to be where the art lies, then of course deciding which S/R line will be produce the magic, but as an extra tool I think I like it:):)

Unless we have started the 'cascading decline' we've all been waiting for, may see better levels to re-enter shorts on various pairs, but the NZD crosses certainly took a pummelling last night.

An interesting observation regarding Esignal - I have a chart for NZDGBP, which must only have one price feed - last night they might have got buried by the market, as there's been no price update since 3930!! - on second look, just updated now, but has left a gaping gap on my chart[V][V]

So, Esignal is not perfect... but who watches NZDGBP anyway[?]

I'll post the chart in the Gartley test thread as it is picture perfect Red Admiral, followed by a sym triangle breakout

Wish all trades were as easy as that....


Xerof

slam
14-12-2005, 03:36 PM
Long on this as well
Slow climb atm

Cheers
Slam

slam
06-01-2006, 12:37 AM
Hi All

Hope everyone had a great festive season.
Went long on this pair last week at 1.0708, 189pips so far.[8D]
If it can break 1.09 convincingly, looking for 1.11

Cheers
Slam

peat
09-01-2006, 05:02 PM
goin well slam!! i had a goodie myself going long on the Eur just before the NFP kicked it up 70 points.

from my platform news today...

[AUD/NZD] cross headed northbound in early AM session after last week's consolidation, demand by onshore and corporates drive it briefly 1.0900+ high but capped by profit takers placed above 1.0910, thus retreats down to the current 1.0870 zone. Meanwhile 1.0850 to 1.0835 likely to attract decent buying orders on the back of solid growth in Aust while participants expect RBNZ to end its monetary tightening cycle. A sustained 1.0930 break unveils 1.0970-1.1000 objective. On the charts, bullish trend remains intact for a minimum 1.1000 to 1.1040 target. Support now lies at 1.0835

slam
11-01-2006, 05:40 PM
Hi Pete

Yep was good. Was running a tight stop which got hit.
Kept 145 pips:)

Back in again today on the low,
see how we go this time.

Cheers
Slam

slam
18-01-2006, 09:39 AM
currently 72pips and holding

Cheers
Slam

slam
18-01-2006, 12:13 PM
Closed long for 98pips

Will look to reset on a dip. Hourly overbought

Cheers
Slam

slam
19-01-2006, 07:01 AM
Took Longs again at 62
Looking to push through resistance circa 0920 this time;)
Will flat on failure
See how we go

Cheers
Slam

slam
25-01-2006, 11:22 AM
Target met over night at 1.1090:)

Have re-entered on dip looking for break of 1.11

Cheers
Slam

peat
09-02-2006, 10:23 AM
kiwi getting a bit hammered
this cross is benefitting.

moe
09-03-2006, 04:00 PM
What are the general thoughts on where is the AUD heading against the NZD?

slam
10-03-2006, 12:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by moe


What are the general thoughts on where is the AUD heading against the NZD?


Hi Moe
IMO up up and away
Been long on this pair for ages (as you will see by my posts) and it just keeps going.:)
May correct sometime soon, but think it will then resume uptrend

Cheers
slam

slam
11-03-2006, 06:53 AM
Hi All

Out for the correction.
Will re enter on the bounce

Cheers
Slam

FYA4999
25-03-2006, 02:05 PM
I'm looking forward to the Kiwi getting sold down to 0.75AUD, by the end of the year.

Bring on more bad economic news!!

Hoping the AUD drops further against the USD too. Great for aussie commodity stocks.

peat
04-04-2006, 09:27 AM
this upward trend now had to happen really given our appalling trade figures compared to theirs.... + 80 and holding.

peat
27-04-2006, 03:08 PM
I bought in this at 1.1883 last night and its been a struggle with the signals unclear. My fortitude almost wavered, but the announcement this morning hasnt done the cross any harm and its seems to be building a base at around the 1.1900 level. Resistance will arrive at 1.20 but buying on dips could work for a few more pips yet. It is quite volatile which does mean you get the chance to buy cheap if you have the stomach for it.

arco
27-04-2006, 04:03 PM
Hi Peat

I spotted a Sm Gartley on the daily, and a Harami candle pattern (after a Bearish Engulfing 12 days ago). So not sure where this one is going in the short term. I'm basically waiting to see if the recent high is taken out before making any decisions.

regards - arco

peat
03-05-2006, 12:09 PM
as suggested i accumulated at around 1.1900 and have reduced a bit now...leaving some on the table tho coz AUD looks strong

peat
05-05-2006, 03:11 PM
adding at these 1.990 levels

peat
08-05-2006, 08:53 PM
reducing at these 1.21 levels

peat
09-05-2006, 07:02 PM
closed out at 1.2220

FYA4999
10-05-2006, 08:03 AM
Kiwi dollar is in freefall against other major currencies now. On course to hit new lows in a few months time. I suggest buying AUD/JPY and holding on.

777
25-05-2006, 11:04 AM
So with the rises over the last few days when does one start buying A$.

clearasmud
25-05-2006, 07:55 PM
This publication may help answer your question :)

Its issued weekly.

http://www.nbnz.co.nz/economics/publications/marketfocus/060522_MarketFocus.pdf

Regards,
Clearasmud

slam
15-08-2006, 10:04 AM
Hi All
This one looks like it may be one of those Gartley / Butterfly patterns to an untrained eye.:)
Any thoughts out there

Cheers
Slam

Edit: On the daily

arco
15-08-2006, 02:09 PM
Hi Slam

Not sure if you are looking at 'X' from 11/5/06, or from 6/7/06.
Although the larger is a wierd Butterfly pattern, the agreeing 'D' level from both gave a confirming point for a short and about 420 pips max presently.

I have been concentrating on the majors so sadly I didnt trade that one.

Regards - arco

slam
15-08-2006, 05:02 PM
Hi Arco
No I didn't trade it either ( The right way anyhow;))
Was just looking for the end of this run, which may be now for a Gartley, or could go on to be a Butterfly.

There I go thinking out load again:D

Cheers for the reply

Slam

slam
17-08-2006, 10:13 AM
Still heading lower and broken the lower support on the daily.

The reversal on this one should be nice;)

Cheers
Slam

arco
17-08-2006, 10:04 PM
Hi Slam

May be a ways to go yet....but lets see how it copes with 2 TL breaks first.

13 black candles in a row must be an omen [}:)]


arco in QLD

slam
18-08-2006, 04:34 AM
red on mine arco:D

peat
30-08-2006, 12:28 PM
looking continuously weak and breaking through new floors. I played the bounce for some pips but that was a bit of a dead cat. Seems like short side is more likely now, but woah its already fallen a long way.

peat
31-08-2006, 11:30 AM
further confirmation of weakness breaking through 117.40
I am thinking this means even more downside. perhaps a lot.

trackers
16-09-2006, 12:32 AM
Think the current levels, NZd vs AUd can't be upheld for too much longer, tempted to liquidate my stocks and buy some aud

dasher
16-09-2006, 07:38 AM
Can you guys help a beginner. Agree with Tracker that the NZ$ won't stay at these levels too much longer. What's the bet way of changing $20grand NZ to AUD - buying Aussie shares a little risky at the mo 9my opinion) my westpac bank wants its pound of flesh for setting up an AUD account (but maybe the way to go)
Any other ideas?? Cheers

arco
16-09-2006, 09:59 AM
Dasher

Not sure if any of these 3 ideas may help.

ASB Securites (share trading) NZ. They will open an Aussie dollar account which also pays interest.

ANZ in Aus have a V2 account that pays 5% on balances over $5k

I think you can open an account with Oanda in Aud dollars and I beleive they pay 4% on any amount. You could also trade the cross with this account, if you so wish.

regards - arco

slam
25-09-2006, 08:50 PM
Hi All
This has had quite a run (down).
Looking for support circa 1.1190, 61.8 Fib from 12/05 to 05/06
If this dosent hold, may be 100% retrace[:0]
Any other opinions out there?

Cheers
Slam

miner
25-09-2006, 09:12 PM
You been in hibernation for the winter slam[?][|)]:D,first post for a while[:0];).

slam
26-09-2006, 07:23 AM
Hi Miner
Yep, been a bit busy, still doing the odd trade, but more long term as I don't have to much time to watch atm;)
This one is interesting as I didn't think it would retrace this much, but that's forex for you ah.

Catch you soon
Slam

peat
04-10-2006, 06:36 PM
time for a bit of a bounce off 1200 for the AUD against the Kiwi?

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/6619/audnzddaily04102006pi2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

arco
05-10-2006, 09:27 AM
Morning Peat


No confirmed reversal signal yet on the daily but there could be some Gann support coming in around 1230.


arco

booney
05-10-2006, 04:31 PM
Arco has suggested AUD/USD may rise towards 0.7813 and also indicated possible reversal south in NZD/USD, so one would have to think AUD/NZD heading north.

Or have I made a mistake somewhere?

arco
05-10-2006, 08:38 PM
Welcome Booney

Yes, that is correct.

I'll come back with a greater explanation and targets when I get more time.

regards - arco

peat
06-10-2006, 12:25 AM
well i think i see a worm turning
am long now, not the best entry at 1263 but will see what the morning brings.

peat
06-10-2006, 07:08 AM
hmmmm, a bit suckered last nite it seems, but stop was placed just under 1200 so holding for now.

peat
06-10-2006, 03:10 PM
more convincing now.... all indicators I looked at seem to be on the up.

peat
10-10-2006, 03:25 PM
this has now retraced almost exactly the 61% fib and heading up again - kiwi did the same (obviously opposite direction)

arco
10-10-2006, 03:47 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, i've made a small start with an entry at 1290

.........currently + 7 [:0].......

.......seeing if it ready to go and I can then pyramid up

regards - arco

peat
10-10-2006, 03:53 PM
interesting to see what you regard as a confirmation... will be nice if you dont have to go through the pain I've had holding this position for some days now. I too would have added at 1265 but am at work. perhaps another opportunity when I get home.

Good Luck arco (I say rather selfishly heheh)

arco
10-10-2006, 04:20 PM
Hi Peat

Pin Bar on 1hr and 30 min chart off Fib 618

Gann is positioned circa 1230, so not sure if the action might want to test that again.

Therefore only taken a 10% holding until I see if this
is the real thing.

regards - arco +9 [V]

peat
11-10-2006, 08:36 AM
This position is still a bit testing.... but nothing technical indicating a change at this stage.
Fundamentally that higher business activity report and the prospects it raises NZ interest rates is a little worrying tho.

arco
11-10-2006, 09:25 AM
Woke up expecting to see a few pips in the bag - but alas not so [V]

New Zealand business confidence improves
From correspondents in Wellington
10oct06

NEW Zealand business confidence improved sharply in the September quarter, a survey showed today, raising expectations the central bank may decide to raise interest rates.


The independent New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey for the September quarter showed a net 19 per cent of firms expected a deterioration in the general business situation in the next six months.

However, despite being negative, the figure was the least pessimistic for the last 18 months and down from a net 44 per cent in June and 61 per cent in December.

Economists were surprised with figures that showed capacity utilisation increased for the first time since December 2004. Utilisation reached 92.3 per cent in the September quarter, up from 91.4 per cent in the June quarter.

The NZIER acknowledged the figure would be of concern to the central bank.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Alan Bollard last month said he had become less sure that the official interest rate of 7.25 per cent would not need to rise again during the current business cycle.

Despite a slowing of economic growth to 1.9 per cent annually in the June quarter, inflationary pressures remain strong. Inflation is running at 4 per cent, above the 1-3 per cent band within which the central bank is mandated to maintain price rises.

The ANZ Bank said the business confidence data showed the threshold for a rates increase had been crossed.

"Given recent developments, we believe the risk of a hike (in interest rates) is now greater than 50 per cent, and the Reserve Bank will need a strong reason or calamity at this point to pause,'' the bank said.

The BNZ Bank said a combination of intentions by businesses to hire more workers and to raise prices and the leap in capacity utilisation were worrying.

The bank said it had shifted its probability of an interest rate rise this month from 25 per cent to a 40-45 per cent risk.

"However, we can't but think that governor Bollard really doesn't want to do this if he can avoid doing so,'' the BNZ said.

From The Australian

peat
11-10-2006, 09:36 AM
even RB governors get squeezed..... !

peat
11-10-2006, 09:53 AM
some one posted this Barclays comment on global-view

Barclays: Long AUD/NZD
We see the NZIER survey data as an opportunity to get into AUD/NZD longs ahead of RBA Governor Stevens Wed. We are longing the cross at the reference rata of 1.1276, with a stop loss around the key technical support of 1.1200. We see a hawkish RBA Governor Stevens Wednesday forcing the market to increase the probability of a rate hike in Australia by year end, which will boost the Aussie dollar.Longer term, we expect the RBNZ to stay on hold and not to further hike rates during this tightening cycle. We expect the RBA to hike rates in November, reducing the Kiwi dollar's yield advantage over the Aussie, leading to some shift in carry trades from the Kiwi to the Aussie. We also see a significant chance of a rapid slowing in New Zealand’s economic growth in Q4 and Q1, the precursors of which we see emerging in the data to be released in late Q4. In our opinion, these data will likely see the market begin to price in earlier and steeper rate cuts in New Zealand than it is currently pricing in, which would see a further reductions in carry trades into the Kiwi dollar and bring the weight of New Zealand's record high current account deficit to bear on the Kiwi dollar.

peat
12-10-2006, 12:07 PM
[:0]
using this icon to represent a yawn as I'm definitely tiring of this play....
what do you think arco....how much longer should we give it to deliver...

arco
12-10-2006, 01:27 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, sometimes these potential moves can
be very frustrating when they sit around.

My position is small so I can afford to hang on
for the time being.

At a current -21 that only equates to -2.1 pips
on a full position.

regards - arco

peat
12-10-2006, 01:57 PM
something has happend now [:0] (this time the icon represents genuine surprise)

yeh I have 30K AUD now which is a bit for me and doesnt allow me to open other positions... oh well its looking good now... finally.

arco
12-10-2006, 02:17 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, just as I posted the required green candle
appeared as if in response. Big jump of circa 60
for some reason.

So currently + 40, and looking better.

regards - arco

peat
12-10-2006, 02:24 PM
Australian Sep Employment +31,400; Consensus +2,500
Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.8%; Consensus 4.9%

The further tightening in the labour market suggests an increase in wage pressures that can only add to the
case for a rate hike in November. While new RBA Governor Stevens said Wednesday that September quarter inflation data out later in October will be key, the central bank cannot ignore the inflationary implications from the labour data. (ifr)


The next key event for the cross is the NZ retail sales
tomorrow and there are rumours in the market that this will be a weak number after the 0.5% rise in July.

arco
12-10-2006, 02:26 PM
Ah yes, thanks Peat

Just looked at

http://www.news.com.au/business/

and spotted that.

regards - arco

peat
12-10-2006, 02:36 PM
a bit off topic here but Arco, as a technical analyst , how much do you concern yourself with fundamental issues such as this information. Some would argue the charts say it all.

arco
12-10-2006, 03:03 PM
Hi Peat

I don't concern myself with the fundies, but
if we get a sharp move I sometimes search for
the possible reason.

Its quite incredible, but usually the charts
warn me well prior to the news.

regards - arco

arco
13-10-2006, 06:25 PM
Still looking OK

+ 110 pips

May be a bit of hesitation circa 1475

........trailing stop to lock in profits
as the plot proceeds

regards - arco

peat
13-10-2006, 08:59 PM
50 or 60 pip corrections without trend break tho... so guess the trailing stop should be rather large , i've only raised it to 1360.

NZD triple topped at 6620 which makes me think there has to be some downside test in that one at some stage.

arco
13-10-2006, 09:11 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, stops need to be kept at sensible levels, otherwise they can be easily triggered........amazingly by 1 pip [V]..... How DO they do that

Also the stops margin required seems to have increased dramatically over the last year or so.

I added more to my position......so see how we go

arco

Dazza
13-10-2006, 10:14 PM
whats the pip spread for u guys on the platforms ur using?

its 12 for me &gt;&lt; for audnzd

Xerof
13-10-2006, 10:44 PM
12 is not unreasonable - mine is 13 at Saxobank

Xerof

peat
13-10-2006, 10:56 PM
12 for me too...
Oanda only has 9 (tho it can vary)

huds
14-10-2006, 06:44 AM
18 with a 81 min stop. (IG)

slam
17-10-2006, 11:13 AM
Hi All

From my news ticker, for what it's worth

San Francisco, October 16. AUD/NZD has
been firm most of the NY session, pressing against the overnight highs of
1.1455/60 but is now giving up gains, dropping back to 1.1420. Traders here see
the cross overvalued with the recent basis for long AUD/NZD recommendations
based on expected revisions of the CPI weightings that should see inflation drop
in NZ. However, the analysts are blatantly ignoring the fact that even with the
expected decline, inflation is running well above the RBNZ comfort zone and the
housing and labor markets are still seen underpinning price pressures in the
economy. Some pundits are now calling for an RBNZ rate hike this month, and this
is being ignored in the price of the cross which still has NZD with a yield
premium over AUD. Even more conservative analysts see a 50/50 chance of a NZ
rate hike before the year end. This risk is seen pressuring the recent longs,
risking a pullback to 1.1200 in coming sessions.
NZD/USD is at 0.6594/99 currently, still meeting offers ahead of 0.6600 with
more sellers tipped at 0.6620. Rhonda.Staskow@thomson.com

arco
17-10-2006, 12:30 PM
Hi Slam/All

There are some Gann resistances in the 1475 area, so these may cause a little hesistation before the action tries to close that higher gap.

regards - arco

slam
17-10-2006, 12:55 PM
Hi Arco
good time to by on dips then hey:)

Cheers
Slam

peat
18-10-2006, 03:31 AM
taken out (at 4 AM)

very large correction but in fact is exactly the 61.8 fib of the 1243 low on the 12th to the 1461 high on the 17th.

slam
18-10-2006, 09:54 AM
Hi All
Topped up on the retrace.
Sorry to see you got taken out Peat. Man you do some hours

Cheers
slam

Sorry Peat, slightly dyslexic

peat
18-10-2006, 10:05 AM
my name is P-P-P-Peat. :D Actually I had an early night so woke up a bit in the middle. Not really a complete non-sleeper.

And I would like to re-enter but cant do it from the work office. maybe I should investigate that txt trading bizzo.....

roddy
25-10-2006, 10:24 AM
Hi ALL
As per usual Arco good call on this one

Nz cpi in at .7% not .8% decreasing outlook of a hike tomorrow.

Over the wire

The softer CPI data might swing the balance of expectations towards a "no-
change" result after most of the market was pricing in a 25 bp rise in the cash
rates to 7.5%. A "no-change" result would damage the NZD and solidify calls from
a few US investment banks that the AUD/NZD is he4aded towards 1.1800/1.2000 in
the days/weeks ahead. The NZD/USD trades 0.6600/05

cheers cadet roddy

peat
25-10-2006, 10:38 AM
yup it WAS there for those of you with patience [:I]

- thought you'd disappeared Roddy!!

arco
25-10-2006, 01:54 PM
Hi Roddy/All

Yes that one certainly tested my patience

Currently + 94 on the second lot


I fly back to NZ on Monday, so probably no
posts after Thursday until next Tues/Wed.
Please arrange for some nice temperatures [8D]

regards - arco

roddy
25-10-2006, 02:13 PM
Hi Peat

Yes i havent been doing any trading of late except for a short this morning on Kiwi .6628

the reason being,i have been over trading and spending 30-40 hrs a week screen watching and to be honest my day job and social life have been suffering.
strategy is to take higher probability trades of a medium term nature and forget scalping!

cheers cadet roddy

peat
25-10-2006, 02:27 PM
weather isnt so cold anymore arco... but still a bit dreary with o/cast and rain lately... happy flights

Roddy, yeh I been there too , good that you can recognise it and keep a life balance...

peat
25-10-2006, 02:31 PM
I thought I would apply the pitchfork to this one
what do ya reckon !!! ?

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/7200/audnzdpitchforkgj4.jpg

roddy
25-10-2006, 02:38 PM
HI Arco,

it will be good to have you back on the right side of the tasman, though i cant help with the weather. Hawkes bay has been drying out so for my line of work the rain has been good!


regards cadet roddy

arco
26-10-2006, 09:52 AM
Ah, its good when a plan comes together.................

+194 pips currently, but might have to close this off at some point
today as I will be unable to watch anything until next Tuesday.

GTA - arco

arco
27-10-2006, 10:22 AM
OK, Thanks again Mr Gann....


I took my profit at +197 pips, as I knew this morning would be the last time I could do anything before Telstra pulls the plug on me, and who know what may have happend over night, let alone over the next few days.

Good weekend to all, this may be my last post from the sunny Sunshine Coast QLD. So until Mid-week next week - au revoir.

arco [8D]

slam
27-10-2006, 11:33 AM
Have a safe trip arco
and go hard on the duty free;)

Cheers
Slam

arco
02-11-2006, 01:34 PM
Thanks Slam (picked up some nice Whisky [:p])

Selling the AUD.NZD was the correct decision, and it looks like there may be another possible trade if the resistance will now hold as support.

Waiting in the wings fro a reversal signal.

arco

peat
03-11-2006, 07:26 AM
i went long last night - before I saw your posts arco, at 1.1498 , and then promptly saw much better opportunities :( but set my stop at 1438 and left it. does seem to have found support around 1460 tho, for now at least.

arco
03-11-2006, 04:19 PM
Hi All

Just got taken in at with a cheeky limit order at 1478

+13

See how we go, and will pyramid if I feel the urge........


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/aud.nzd_110306.gif

GTA - arco

peat
03-11-2006, 04:35 PM
Twas a nasty lil surge by the kiwi disrupting what was beginning to look like a breakout for AUD/NZD. Continues to confuse but my position remains as stated. I suspect NZD gets thrown around by either the big players or a possible lack of liquidity

arco
03-11-2006, 04:46 PM
Peat

Its probably the [V] nasty tricks brigade .......they make it look like a powerful breakout and people jump in with fairly tight stops.......the NTB then run it down and collect all those juicy stops, only to reverse it again once they have their bounty.

arco

peat
04-11-2006, 06:58 AM
bugger - just got taken out...:(

arco
04-11-2006, 07:23 AM
Morning Peat

Fortunately my stop was a little lower down, so still in +9

The daily looks like it may produce a Spinning Top (Green)

Good weekend all - arco

peat
07-11-2006, 01:19 PM
There seems to have been a number good opportunities to have re-entered long on this cross without overpaying. Alas I have not done so. Lingering resentment at being taken out Fri night I suspect ...haha
I still think theres many hundreds of pips awaiting the brave tho.

arco
07-11-2006, 02:26 PM
Hello Peat

Yes, once you have been taken out
it can be difficult mentally to re-enter.

Original position from 1.1478 +68

Further position from 1.1500 +46

regards - arco

edit. Should have mentioned there my be
Gann resistance to conquer ahed circa 1593-1618

peat
07-11-2006, 09:27 PM
put my money where my mouth is
in again at 1524

will be offline during the next two working days!!! attending a CMC strategy course.

arco
09-11-2006, 10:16 AM
Scary spike down overnight but recovered nicely
this morning


+ 95
+ 73

GTA - arco

peat
09-11-2006, 11:00 AM
yeh my stop got taken again.... had it at 1479 saaaaarrrghhh !!!
guess i need to allow more room on this cross.

arco
09-11-2006, 11:04 AM
Morning Peat

Yes, I was wondering where your stop was.
Sorry to hear that it got hit again.

IMO stops have to be much further away now
than they did going back a few years.

Not sure if all the small players are affecting
this, or what the cause is. However I often
start with 70-100 now.

How was CMC????


regards - arco

peat
09-11-2006, 11:11 AM
I'm just on my lunchbreak from it (one of the benefits of living in the city is I can pop home) I wrote about in it the investment strategy forum so see that for my comments. They really are pushing this $4000 piece of software called Profit Source, which does seem pretty slick indeed, I'm strongly resistant to that sort of expense tho... I hate sales pitch. Hes really a really good salesman tho so the more time I spend there the more I waver.
Todays recommendations (with disclaimer of course) were to short FPA (NZX) and OSH on the ASX and some others I can post later...

added: tho as I typed that FPA broke the stop which was at 3.92, so thats over now.

peat
21-11-2006, 10:42 AM
whats the low for today on AUD/NZD ? cant get fxgame to run from my work PC today [xx(]

bounced off just below 1500 it seems....

Xerof
21-11-2006, 01:14 PM
Peat, off an MT4 platform, the lowest price in last 6 hours or so is 1.1485/95

Xerof

peat
21-11-2006, 02:00 PM
cheers Xerof
wow pretty close to my stop at 1484 !! but not quite ;), dont think it went quite that low on CMC tho...

and btw I reinstalled Java and fxgame is now working again on IE7 so have their graphs available on the work PC again.

Dazza
21-11-2006, 06:15 PM
anyone else still long AUDNZD?

im tinking of entering 1500 ....

arco u still in, from ur exsisting 1478 and 1500 lots?

i see peat is still in from 1524?

Dazza
21-11-2006, 06:47 PM
im in at 1503/1515

long

stop 1430

peat
21-11-2006, 08:18 PM
i'm not in any more dazza!
NZD gets pushed up first for some reason exacerbating the volatility in this cross, and I need to have cut off points, so yeh gone again. I must say the Antipodes currencies rarely do me any favours.

Dazza
21-11-2006, 08:22 PM
yeah i mite just stick to my eurusd lol

down 40 pips now oh well, will leave the stop as is..

arco
21-11-2006, 09:28 PM
Dazza

No, I took a profit over a week ago as I was going away for a few days. Just got back this afternoon.

regards - arco

Dazza
22-11-2006, 11:41 PM
kiwi just did a 100 pip u turn

im +60 at the moment, wondering when to take profits..

peat
04-12-2006, 04:20 PM
Ichimoku is saying sell on the daily now.

Tenkan has crossed over (or at least will do very soon I think)
Todays price is lower than the price 22 days ago (Chikou)
Current price is now below the Kumo cloud.

Sell on any bounces over the next two days I reckon.

It seems to me that following the trigger of an Ichi indicators on the daily price often experience a pullback during the next 2-3 days where a much better entry point can be achieved. So sell if price retraces up, back to the cloud itself.


Target 1100??

arco
04-12-2006, 08:13 PM
Peat

As I understand it -

If Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen from down to up = buy signal (Gold Cross), and the reverse = sell signal is called Dead Cross.

However, if Tenkan-sen line is on horizontal level - we have an undecided market signal.

(Also check out possible triple tweezer bottom on 3 hours?)

arco

roddy
04-12-2006, 08:55 PM
this might have some influence on the AUD/NZ and worthwhile keeping an eye on
IMO with B at 78 D should be 161

cheers Roddy

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1375/noname08ez4.jpg

peat
04-12-2006, 09:45 PM
the tenkan crossed downwards using parameters 9,26 but not using 7,22 but yes, I am probably pre-empting a bit on this call.

roddy
04-12-2006, 10:31 PM
Hi Peat
i havent been able to get ichimoko up and going yet,though my metastock is legit i never registered
it so cant access downloads from Equis that i am aware of, so i am interested in your comments on tenkan etc,looking at daily chart it appears to have fallen through support 11456

cheers roddy

peat
14-12-2006, 11:00 AM
my post of 04/12/2006 : 5:20:06 PM wasnt a bad call... not that I traded it with real money but if you had of sold in the two days following that when it hit up to 1530 you could've been up 200 pips

another tick for the daily ichi tho?

peat
07-01-2007, 07:18 PM
note that it got to 1150 but has now turned back with the daily tenkan sen crossing through the kijun sen (tho below the cloud). Cloud might offer some resistance but if this low was the ABC correction of the 12345 upphase to 1.2450 ending in August then Big Things could be in store on this leg up.

peat
08-01-2007, 09:12 PM
this from Jyske Bank (Denmark) today

"If investors sell NZD against AUD – and not against the low-interest CHF and JPY – they save interest
expenses since the interest-rate level for AUD is only marginally lower than for NZD. With a long
AUD/NZD certificate in the portfolio, investors can in the event of renewed risk aversion look
forward to a more safe future knowing that action has been taken"

moe
20-03-2007, 06:49 PM
folks

Theres been much talk over the 6 months or so that there will be a correction in this rate, yet there seems to be constant trading in the same narrow range. Whats it going to take other than NZ dropping interest rates, which ain't going to happen anytime soon.

moe
20-03-2007, 06:54 PM
folks

Theres been much talk over the 6 months or so that there will be a correction in this rate, yet there seems to be constant trading in the same narrow range. Whats it going to take other than NZ dropping interest rates, which ain't going to happen anytime soon.

peat
20-03-2007, 08:28 PM
dont know what it will take Moe, but, the longer the period of compression usually the more violent the outbreak.

peat
18-04-2007, 12:49 PM
breakout started (down) !
100 pips already but a few hundred more i reckon.
and I always thought it would break the other way.

peat
18-04-2007, 08:23 PM
http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/2705/audnzddaily18042007medidy5.jpg

at first my top line 31 was too tight and it was giving false indications but line 87 now matches better with 63 and the breakout is clear. I am thinking a good strategy would be to sell into 1.1250 stop loss 100. supposedly the target 1.09 but 1.1 might leave some for the next guy

peat
19-04-2007, 06:26 PM
well I've actually put the money where the mouth is on this just now. Shorted it in demo last night - watched that bounce around today... but have shorted 15k Aud/NZD at 1.1242 fo' real now.
Not sure that my stop loss will be as large as posted above (1.1350), now I'm thinking that I wouldnt want it to go over 1.1270 at this stage as the major trend should start to show itself quickly if this is a true breakout.

peat
23-04-2007, 11:14 PM
sold another 15k at 1.1196

peat
24-04-2007, 01:13 PM
Aussie 1Q CPI Below Expectations; AUD/USD Falls

Australian 1Q CPI surprisingly weak, up 0.1% on quarter vs +0.6% expected, up 2.4% on year vs +3.0% expected. Data diminish rate hike expectations ahead of May 1 RBA meeting. Australian dollar tumbles...

Cross now at 1.1146

peat
26-04-2007, 08:41 AM
Well this trade all closed now, unfortunately only slightly better than break even. Yesterdays behaviour of correction was fairly expected tho at 1.1200 stretching things a bit, and even this mornings OCR increase didnt put things right soon enough with the spikes up hitting my stop.
A little disappointed that I didnt capture the profits while they were available (greed?) but I had my original target (1.10) and I stuck to them. Maybe they will still be hit eventually.

later ..... now at 1.1150 :( well I need to move on , but this is burnin my A.S.S.

seems to be a feature of my trading that even when I get it right I dont bank the pips. hmmmmmmmmmm

miner
26-04-2007, 07:20 PM
Hi Peat at least you got the move right,way I tend to look at it is that there are always trades,so once you are in the money run fairly tightly behind it,ie as it moves move your stop up behind it,sometimes will be too tight other times you end up banking more if it turns the other way.

The exception would be playing a long move,say a week or more,also I try to stay flexible,as in pick a move but don't get stubborn about it,so if you are sitting there thinking it's turning take the money and run.

Cheers
Miner

peat
26-04-2007, 09:27 PM
cheers for the words miner
yeh I was kinda in this for the long run - workin for a big target and , hence my tentativenss in moving the stops closer - especially with this cross the s/t volatility is fairly high.
Shame to miss banking it tho coz I'd been eyeing the compression on this for months and with a 12 pip stop its not somethin to scalp at too much.

Always another day tho!!

miner
27-04-2007, 09:27 AM
Morning Peat I have been to busy to play for a while but just looking at usd/jpy and eur/jpy on the daily and they have both given nice "U" trades,doing the what I call back to test theory.

Thinking of your trade,if you had put a stop just above where you went short so when it came back to test it you stay in,as in it tests it then heads back down the way you picked?.

looking for back to test patterns on all my time frames works well for me.

Cheers
Miner

peat
27-04-2007, 11:56 AM
you are aboslutely right about the back to test movement - thats where a bit of intestinal fortitude (guts) is required

peat
28-06-2007, 09:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by peat

I am thinking a good strategy would be to sell into 1.1250 stop loss 100. supposedly the target 1.09 but 1.1 might leave some for the next guy

1.0975 was eventually reached , but wouldve needed 150 pip stop.

bogus1
24-07-2007, 04:52 PM
text book butterfly set up ,i have been watching and trading this one for a while ,the price seems to gravitate towards that potential reversal zone, anyone got any thoughts on this onehttp://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_04Jul2417.44.gif

moe
13-08-2007, 06:46 PM
Finally there seems to be a correction coming to this rate.

Talk of rising interest rates in Aus with a hold on rate rises in NZ looks to have started a turn around.

arco
14-08-2007, 10:28 AM
Hello All

Bo - I thought you were now Dumbass?

I have been following the beat of a different pair of wings...........
....first targets already hit with the action still moving north.

arco - from the butterfly house

whiteheron
14-08-2007, 12:10 PM
I think moe has called it correctly

But all those dollars that it cost the NZ taxpayers for precisely nothing --- ouch !!!!!!!

dumbass
14-08-2007, 02:04 PM
i think you will find the way the nz dollar is moving it has made money for the taxpayer assuming your talking intervention

dumbass
14-08-2007, 02:09 PM
arco ......... i m dumbass and proud of it ...........

i have a spare copy of carney's harmonic trading volume 2 free , its a good read with some interesting concepts , its bugging me no ones reading it , shall i send it to the Monte Carlo address.
seriously if you want it email me and i ll post it for nought or anyone else if arco doesnt want it ,

great call arco , you see things that are right under my nose that i dont see , in fact your the one who should be writing a book.

arco
14-08-2007, 02:57 PM
DA

Thanks for the offer - I'd be interested in reading it, and I've sent you a PM.

Re writing a book...yes a few old posters may remember me starting to write a book
but I havent got around to finishing it (yet) . Maybe, one day.

Rgds - arco

arco
15-08-2007, 11:24 AM
Red BF still moving nicely towards the north potential target zone
(see previous chart - red box at top) with a high so far of 1.1503

GTA - arco

Lizard
15-08-2007, 06:01 PM
These thumbnail images are proving very erratic for me in terms of whether they open or not... even when they do, they are too small to read.

Oh well - question I was hoping to answer by looking at the chart - are we through arco's red box yet?

arco
15-08-2007, 07:33 PM
Hi Lizard

Yes I agree the thumbnails are too small, and therefore I have taken another shot
for you using photobucket.

The present high at 8pm is 1.1583, with the current run being up circa 668 pips
max so far. The chart below shows only upto yesterdays EOD, and the RED BF
target zone is the overhead red box.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/081407Aud.Nzd.gif

rgds - arco

Lizard
15-08-2007, 07:48 PM
Thanks Arco. Much appreciated. I'm afraid I'm a terrible lurker on your forex threads - since I have little to say on the subject.

Your rep points upped in gratitude. :)

arco
16-08-2007, 04:38 PM
A majestic flight north by the Red Admiral.........action has now entered
the red box with a present high of 1.1768 (15.45hrs)

GTA - arco

moe
06-09-2007, 07:04 PM
Hit a year high (or low depending on which way you look at it) today, looks like this one may have a bit further to run.

peat
19-10-2007, 08:30 PM
AUD/NZD on the 5 min candle since 0600 today NZ Time theres a bullish gartly just completed.
And a bullish one on the NZD/USD

peat
20-10-2007, 01:50 AM
twas a hard road but think it will pay off.... the momentum gradually waned and now the NZD falls and the AUD/NZd rises.

arco
02-02-2008, 04:59 PM
Bit of resistance overhead to the long from a
swathe of moving averages. Therefore possible
straddle tactic IMO until this resolves -

Go long 1.1481 - potential target 600-900 pips

SAR/or stop @ 1.1331

RR 4:1

arco
06-05-2008, 10:06 PM
2/2 Go long 1.1481 - potential target 600-900 pips


Just for the record, I got the direction right but
unfortunately the driver had the map upside
until he found a compass :confused:

slam
16-05-2008, 07:21 AM
Hi all
Good call on the last post arco. :cool:

My short order got filled over night at 1.24
currently +75
Tight stop as I think it may have another go at 1.246 but hopefully get a retrace first

Cheers
Slam

arco
16-05-2008, 09:30 AM
Thanks Slam.....

Must admit I had a little help from a large green butterfly (or 2) :D

Ya never know there might be a bit more fuel left....


rgds - arco

peat
16-05-2008, 10:20 AM
yeh Max said .73 so thats um 1/.73 = 1.36

from a fundy point of view it would appear our economy is turning down a lot faster than theirs.

slam
16-05-2008, 11:31 AM
Closed short for +62 as it has stalled.
Trade was contradicting my others so wasn't that comfortable with it.
May still go lower but a bird in the hand and that.
Thanks for the comments guys

Cheers
Slam

arco
16-05-2008, 12:56 PM
The big green shows a max of around 1.3700 at 1618
and the Qstick is still looking perky.

peat
20-05-2008, 07:08 AM
I see a perfect bullish gartley since May 15th

Bilo
03-06-2008, 06:15 PM
Away from my computer but trying to see a butterfly forming in this?...

peat
05-06-2008, 09:13 AM
Thankfully I bought in real money a big chunk of my AUD for the holiday yesterday and my trading balance (bought as a hedge ) is now back to being up 143
... still would prefer it to go down tho with the inevitable visa card expenses
oh well havent been burned completely by this reaction to the RBNZ announcement today.

Bilo
05-06-2008, 11:49 AM
Thankfully I bought in real money a big chunk of my AUD for the holiday yesterday and my trading balance (bought as a hedge ) is now back to being up 143
... still would prefer it to go down tho with the inevitable visa card expenses
oh well havent been burned completely by this reaction to the RBNZ announcement today.

My trips to OZ are covered for a while, fingers crossed.:)
So when do we get to 1.37 Arco?

peat
05-06-2008, 12:47 PM
arco is away until further notice gallivanting the world. seems like the forex thing to do at the moment. with DA gone , and me away from next Friday (tho only for 8 days)

So its really important that everyone posts even if you dont have a view - I dont wanna be a lone voice. :(

AUD/NZD onward and upward it seems after a little rest at the new levels. Not looking forward to the visa bill....

Bilo
05-06-2008, 03:40 PM
arco is away until further notice gallivanting the world. seems like the forex thing to do at the moment. with DA gone , and me away from next Friday (tho only for 8 days)

So its really important that everyone posts even if you dont have a view - I dont wanna be a lone voice. :(

AUD/NZD onward and upward it seems after a little rest at the new levels. Not looking forward to the visa bill....

Thanks Peat, I'll be watching if not posting much. Arco, a dozen Stella was on special at Liquor king for 19.99 sorry you couldn't drink it with me.:D

roddy
30-06-2008, 10:07 AM
Hi Db/Peat,

Heres aud/nzd technically a crab but commonly a butterfly!

peat
30-06-2008, 10:12 AM
yeh its been an amazing run and I'm not at all sure its over... tho i have no more open positions.
I closed some at over +500 and I missed most of it! it was certainly a lesson in letting your profits run, i dont think I would've held that long except for the fact I was hedging known costs in AUD, so goes to show if you're not keen to bank profits too quickly how things can add up.

roddy
30-06-2008, 03:16 PM
Peat,

think you might be right regard its not over yet,yeah let your profits run,think i should do more of that,500 pips thats great!

cheers
roddy

roddy
01-07-2008, 11:14 AM
apologies on my CHART post 218, 121 is not a fib number should be 127,which corresponds to a slightly higher1.235 on AUD/NZD.

CHEERS
RODDY

Technical.Trader
01-07-2008, 11:20 AM
http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/4715/audnzdpx9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
[URL=http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=136&i=audnzdpx9.jpg][IMG]

AUD/NZD on the weekly chart is starting to look a little high risk for buyers.... The value index is going lower and diverging from the price trend.. that only happens for so long before a corrective phase and the seasonals are suggesting a few weeks of bearishness.

TT...

roddy
03-07-2008, 11:06 AM
Hi TT

how is it going,could you give me an idea what the 2 indicators you have posted measure i have never come across them before

cheers roddy

Mick100
03-07-2008, 02:24 PM
Hi tech trader
Could you tell me where you source your charts from

I have tried to get LW sentiment and/or Cot commercial index but have been unable to get them from a provider that I tried

thanks

AMR
09-09-2008, 12:00 PM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=48

Head and shoulders pattern with a trendline break. What do you lot think.

I'm gonna try entering with those trailing sell stops tonight if things look good. Need a decent break below the 1.2125 before I enter.

Supports at 1.2042, 1.1755, and if we're lucky 1.11 somewhere.

Bilo
09-09-2008, 02:34 PM
Head and shoulders pattern with a trendline break. What do you lot think.

I'm gonna try entering with those trailing sell stops tonight if things look good. Need a decent break below the 1.2125 before I enter.

Supports at 1.2042, 1.1755, and if we're lucky 1.11 somewhere.

Sounds good to me but the RBNZ rate decision isn't until Thursday 11th and the banks have a growing penchant to make it pretty hard to hold a position prior to the event. Could be a rocky ride.

dumbass
09-09-2008, 03:33 PM
hi guys , momentum plays a big part in the ability to collect the pips.

you are probably focusing on the one cross which over the last few weeks has not moved at all.
i think the way the markets are moving in blocks at the moment , its unlikely for the aud and nzd dollar to take separate paths.

its a usd v commodity story

but a set up is a set up .

AMR
11-09-2008, 10:44 AM
Seems you were right about the RBNZ rate decision. Got stopped out of my position for a loss, but no where near what it would have been had I held.

remy
07-10-2008, 10:07 AM
hi all im no currecy trader but nz/aud at 88c its been a while since its been this high could this be seen as a good time to buy aud or is it likley that the aud will keep on weakening

Xerof
07-10-2008, 01:44 PM
This is nothing more than a 'soft' vs 'hard' commodity trade.

Probably hedge funds unwinding old positions to lock in their profits, or building positions the other way with a view to it going further

Dr_Who
09-10-2008, 09:00 AM
NZD AUD is at 90 cents!!!!

Surely the NZD is over valued against the AUD on fundamentals.

ynot
26-10-2008, 07:57 AM
Im am realy interested to hear what you currency guys predict on the NZD V AUD over the coming months.
Just that im cashed up have an employment offer in Ausi.
Unsure wether i should jump at low to mid .90 cent range or can this situation continue to strengthen the kiwi out to high .90's and beyond ?

dumbass
26-10-2008, 08:54 AM
hi ynot, cashed up sounds a great place to be.

im sorry but all my charts are audnzd so you got look upside down.

audnzd has been pretty volatile at the moment which is a little unusual for this cross.

possibilty has broken a triangle and may run to what has been a major resistance level in the past around 1.05.
if it broke 1.05 then may well move lower.

big resistance at 115 to watch to the upside.

so i think i would hang on at the moment and see which way it breaks and expect big daily swings as volatilty is pretty high.

ananda77
26-10-2008, 01:03 PM
...exchanged some NZ$ into A$ and started to dip into equities (yes, commodities included) hoping at least, to make a start taking advantage of companies showing good fundamental values (some miners sitting on piles of cash 50% and more compared to their market value right now), paying dividend yields based on earning cycle 07/08 higher than bank rates...and who wants to have money in the bloody banks anyway???

...as I have said long ago, if the whole show goes down the drain, your cash is trash (always has been more or less) and so will be anything else, apart from precious metals; so what am I waiting for I thought to myself and made a start;

...as far as NZD/AUD gap is concerned, it's not sustainable longer term

Kind Regards

speres
26-10-2008, 02:52 PM
Seems you were right about the RBNZ rate decision. Got stopped out of my position for a loss, but no where near what it would have been had I held.

Be careful with announcements, they are used by the big players to dump or break a level, so if you dont know what your doing stay well clear....

peat
06-03-2009, 10:21 AM
Bumped for ollie

I actually have a very small short position in this cross but its quite negative - if it goes much higher I will be stopped.
This morning I was seeing a bit of a head and shoulders forming though so was ever hopeful the position might come right. ie Aud go down against Kiwi
I also have some cash left over from the last trip over there which I havent changed so a bit of a bob each way hahah

Ollie often in these situations its best to do the transfer in tranches eg 1/3rd now 1/3rd in a while etc....
At 1.27 Historically you wouldnt be doing too badly to bring money here to NZ right now remember it was 1.06 not that long ago. (I know these numbers are the wrong way round for you - but reciprocals are pretty easy maths)

ollie
06-03-2009, 10:46 AM
Thanks peat, good idea to split the total into 3 or 4 lots,sort of dollar cost averaging . I remember sending this money to OZ with the rate at .9500 , Nov 05. so its all uphill. cheers

peat
06-03-2009, 05:59 PM
this is the head and shoulders I see on the hourly
which if correct would suggest theres 2-300 pips down if it can convincingly break 1.2750. But it hasnt yet.

peat
10-03-2009, 07:10 AM
well it tempted me in but didnt perform - taken a hit here....

peat
20-03-2009, 05:23 AM
I actually have a very small short position in this cross but its quite negative - if it goes much higher I will be stopped.


well the h+s might not have worked out but the original small position never quite did get stopped - coming into a reasonable profit now at 1.2350 +340 , target 1.15 tho.

peat
06-04-2009, 01:14 PM
kiwi strength a bit :eek: but good for this short position. still a long way to 1.15 tho.

peat
09-04-2009, 09:15 AM
Australian jobs data due out today (1.30pm, New Zealand time)

dragonz
14-04-2009, 12:22 PM
Could somebody recommend a site where I can get 12 month NZ.AUD charts please. :D

Cheers
D

Lotto
14-04-2009, 12:28 PM
dragonz
here is one

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/FOREX/NZDAUD.htm

dragonz
14-04-2009, 01:15 PM
Thanks Lotto:)

arco
29-06-2009, 03:38 PM
Herald Article today
Currency: Kiwi and aussie at 'crucial' juncture


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10581293

peat
29-06-2009, 08:10 PM
i've got a failing butterfly (in yellow) on my chart. Havent traded it.

Looks weak to me but just below 1.23 it will have done a bullish gartley (green)

What do you think arco?

arco
23-09-2009, 12:35 PM
http://i36.tinypic.com/2qkkxht.gif


http://i34.tinypic.com/2uprck0.gif

Stop to break even

peat
12-10-2009, 06:59 PM
at the end of the butterfly formation the yello line formed from just above the B point proved instrumental and once it broke on the 7th provided good support the next day. I got in a bit late and is probably a bit overcooked on the hourly at +190 so I've closed out here.

arco
12-10-2009, 08:38 PM
Looks like Kumo resistance

http://i36.tinypic.com/23jn1a9.gif