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Mick100
04-03-2005, 08:15 PM
A good article on the authors veiw of property investment in the US at this point in time

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http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/bearing/2005/0303.html

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Capitalist
06-03-2005, 03:59 PM
There is no property bubble in USA. This argument has been brought to bear on ST for years. AND FOR YEARS IT HAS BEEN WRONG. Meanwhile the rest of us have been making money.

Halebop
06-03-2005, 05:33 PM
Oh come on Cap...

Any rise of the magnitutde experienced in the States (and elsewhere) can't go on for ever. Ignore the word bubble for the moment and call it "Market Cycles" or even "Prudent Values". Perception and macro-economics always do their part to spoil the party.

Now maybe the party goes on for another 10 years until the Baby Boomers start retiring in numbers. Maybe inflation will come to the party to clean up their mistakes. There are any number of factors that could extend the party beyond midnight or give it a quiet landing but to think that parties don't end is just not wise.

This has been a party where everyone was invited. When you get that many people boozing it up at once the hangover is bound to be a big one. I'm not sure Inflation, The Fed or anything else can produce an Alka-Seltzer that big.

Capitalist
06-03-2005, 06:12 PM
Rubbish - there is no bubble. And even if there was - not all bubbles burst. Mick is anti-American and that clouds his, and most ST contributors judgement. They are not objective.

This argument has been going on for 5+ years. The burden of proof is on YOUR side, not MINE. I have been right - you have been wrong. F.E.T.E.

Mick100
06-03-2005, 07:30 PM
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 12 months cap.

Interest rates in the US are heading higher
I wonder how many of the marginal borrowers can stand a 2% rise in interest rates this year

If a small percentage of house owners are forced into mortagee sales that will probably be enough to prick the realistate bubble and send prices on a downward spiral.


Mick

NZyank
16-03-2005, 12:46 PM
Seeing that I live in the US I will give you my opinion (for what its worth). Someone else correctly pointed out that interest rates are on the rise and Mr Greenspan has made it clear that he plans on hiking them further. But the biggest concern is that all the people who got burnt in the stock market have decided to invest in property. I just read a statistic that says that 1/4 of all property bought & sold in this country is for speculation. Now that sounds like it has all the characteristics of a bubble to me!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bling_Bling
16-03-2005, 08:07 PM
That also goes for the NZ property market where alot of properties are bought on speculation for a quick flick.

Capitalist
17-03-2005, 06:55 PM
There is no bubble. Too many people here are bloody stupid. They have no US investments and are just pushing their asshatted agenda. Q.E.D.

Of course there's no bubble. I think we're just getting started. But I don't expect anyone to believe me. There are so many more buyers than there are homes to sell. Bidding and overbidding are the norm of the day. So it's going to take a lot to slow this market. Even if it does -- which I don't see the signs of -- it will still slow down slowly. That's not what a bubble does.

I think the bubble theory is nothing more than an intellectual expression of people's typical worry that good times can't last forever. When your marriage is going well, you worry there's a problem on the horizon. I think it's more psychological than fact

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/mar2005/nf20050315_6227_db093.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

Mick100
17-03-2005, 07:26 PM
Good read cap

Actions speak louder than words

Although Barbara Corcoran is still the front person for her former realestate bussiness she's got her money out of it (sold)

Why would she say anything else other than "everything is just dandy". Bit like Greenspam who's retiring early next year aye.


Mick

NZyank
20-03-2005, 03:43 AM
To respond to Capitalist last comment. I do live in the US and have investment property. But I am unloading it and also downsizing my house. Just as an illustration I live outside of Chicago. The Chicago Tribune, local newspaper, prints a real estate section. Every Sunday on the back of the real estate section they show a map of the various areas, north, south, east & west and with colour coding to show which suburbs the house prices have gone up & down. A year ago everything was going up. I have noticed that the tide is starting to turn the other way with the prices falling in more & more areas. Is this a trend? It maybe too early to tell but it has caught my attention!!!!!!!!!