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View Full Version : IS TRADING GETTING HARDER ?



whiteheron
07-03-2005, 02:21 PM
My personal observation is that trading has been getting harder over the last few weeks
I trade virtually every day so have have quite a few trades to base my comment on

Good trades seem to be harder to ferret out than they previously were ; they are still there but harder to find
I have only managed one really good trade in the last month , being QGC where I doubled my money , but other than that the pickings have in general been pretty slim with some trades struggling to break even

I would like to hear from other frequent traders on how they have been finding the going lately
Are we all in the same boat or is it just me ?

Sky Tower
07-03-2005, 07:08 PM
Yes.

KJ
07-03-2005, 07:49 PM
I have only been trading since last Dec but I have not noticed any change in that time.I only do about 3 to 4 trades a mth and only NZ stocks.Seems to be enough opportunities coming along.

Studson
08-03-2005, 01:25 PM
Well like you WH I am finding it harder to make cash. I am pretty new to the game - still learning heaps but feel I have a reasonable handle on things. I dont make heaps cause I dont put heaps 'on the line' but I was doing much better toward the end of last year compared with this year. I know CTL and CUEVA have been doing quite well and got into these while FA and TA looked OK to me and news for both has been more positive than negative, however they have both since experienced SP declines. I look to hold for at most 3 months when buying in. Its an unfortunate relief that I'm not the only one feeling like this!!. Good luck mate!. Cheers.

Lawso
09-03-2005, 07:52 PM
Does the above mean that ASX and NZX are on the whole fully priced and that bargains or even good value stocks are few and far between? That's certainly my feeling at the moment.

whiteheron
09-03-2005, 08:16 PM
Lawso

I trade almost solely in Aussie resource stocks and yes , it is my opinion that bargains (which is what I endeavour to track down ) are getting few and far between , or certainly more difficult to find

My opinion is that both the ASX and NZX shares are in general getting very close to fully priced and that very careful stock selection is now essential
I believe that careless stock selection now poses real downsides and that many unwary and maverick type investors are likely to get their fingers burned in the next year or three

I dont see a 1987 type situation , but I do see a real need for caution
There are still good stocks to be had but the upsides are not so plentiful

This is my opinion only --- as always time will tell

steve fleming
09-03-2005, 09:59 PM
guys,

in my day day job i work closely with the banks and their financially distressed clients and in the restructuring of these companies. you would be amazed over the last few months the number of listed companies that the Banks are having real concerns with.

Of course none of this is disclosed to the market until its too late for investors - ie sons of gawalia, HWE IOn etc etc....which says alot about the ASX disclosure requirements....anyway...

I'm sure most punters out there would be dumbfounded to know of the amount of companies that are actively discussed on these boards that are very close to joining the likes of IOn,HWE etc.

I noticed even Dimebag appears to have taken a stake in one that , as we speak, the directors are frantically trying to refinance to avoid the banks calling it a day on this company....having had a close look at this particular company's management accounts for jan and feb i would hold little hope of any short term recovery......of course none of this is ever disclosed to the market......

I totally agree with whiteheron that stock selection needs to be of the utmost quality otherwise it has the potential to get very messy.

whiteheron
10-03-2005, 07:45 AM
steve f

Wow , your posting is one of the most telling market announcements that I have read in some time

It just goes to show what happens , or more accurately doesnt happen with disclosure requirements and market announcements

To me this is a signal to stick to companies with a sound background / reputable management / strong financial position etc and to steer clear of those that look a bit suspect even if you think there is a quick profit to be made , you may just get caught holding the parcel when the music stops

Many thanks for the information Steve ; a great bit of "insider " information which shows the necessity for being ever vigilant and doing all you can to avoid becoming part of a disaster

Studson
10-03-2005, 07:59 AM
Great topic for discussion and some good opinions coming forth. Cheers to all.

Stock Man
10-03-2005, 12:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

My personal observation is that trading has been getting harder over the last few weeks
I trade virtually every day so have have quite a few trades to base my comment on

Good trades seem to be harder to ferret out than they previously were ; they are still there but harder to find
I have only managed one really good trade in the last month , being QGC where I doubled my money , but other than that the pickings have in general been pretty slim with some trades struggling to break even

I would like to hear from other frequent traders on how they have been finding the going lately
Are we all in the same boat or is it just me ?


Whiteheron - It really depends on your trading style, and in this case - your timeframe. I have no need to trade as frequently as you, so can not really comment on the daytrades that you refer to.

When you refer to qgc you obviously trade the asx market. The xao (all ords) is certainly in a bull phase - who knows when it will end. Over the last year the xao has appreciated by approx 24% - probably not rampant speculation, but a reasonable increase none the less.

We have to remember that all trends end. We can not mistake good trading for a bull market. Markets constantly change.

Soooooo - I may not be in the same boat as you - however, lately the "going has been excellent", for my style and timeframe.

Cheers

whiteheron
17-03-2005, 07:09 PM
StockMan

I am a short term trader rather than a day trader , usually holding for a week or two to several months , sometimes longer if all is continuing to go well
In my opinion day trading would be an almost impossible way to consistantly make profits
I trade the ASX market , especially mining and resource stocks , and have done well in the last year or so averaging around 5 % to 6 % per month ( but I do put in a lot of work on research etc as I am retired )

I agree that we must not mistake a bull market for good trading --- my feeling is that the bull market run is having a bit of a breather , especially in the types of shares that I trade , but I dont see a major downturn happening in the near term --- I see a strong commodities market for some time yet
Very careful stock selection and keeping in close touch with the market is however essential to produce positive results

I believe that I am currently holding some really promising stocks , but time will tell as always

KJ
29-06-2005, 09:11 AM
Conditions have picked up over the last month for trading-how are others finding it?

TheBossMan
23-07-2005, 09:01 PM
Have been trading ASX S&P 50 stocks for couple of years; Nothing has changed IMO. There are some stocks that trade in a small channel, so if I can make money (without any TA skills), I'm sure you guys can.

Snow Leopard
25-07-2005, 07:57 PM
When the market is rising you can just go with the flow, so to speak, kick back and relax, if you wish. Since early may the tide has been rising. Now I has a suspicion that it may be turning, it is begining to feel that way, at least on the NZX.

zyreon
29-07-2005, 01:35 PM
is trading getting harder? no

if market is going up buy calls
if market is going down buy puts
if market is not moving buy butterfly spreads or sell straddles
if market is very volatile buy straddles, strangles, strips or straps
if market is not volatile but may get volatile buy deep OTM options and sell them to reap the lambda premium (reverse if reverse)

that said trending markets are the easiest to milk

Halebop
29-07-2005, 01:47 PM
Zyreon I gotta say I hope they don't teach that cr@p at university. It all sounds very sophisticated but at the end of the day only the players get played.

Options and other derivatives = Leverage and/or Opacity = Exponentially Higher Risk. Going long in a rising market and to a lessor extent short in a falling market is a very different risk proposition to other financial instruments. If you need to use them to continue generating gains then trading is most definately getting harder.

zyreon
29-07-2005, 05:59 PM
yeah, you can use derivatives to financially engineer all sorts of crap, but ultimately it comes down to prediction.

but options do have their place, excellent for hedging - basically insurance - transfering risk for a payment. e.g. protective put -- buy shares, buy put at your entry price... put allows you to sell at that price if you want, so you end up creating a situation where you profit if it goes up (higher than cost of option), and if it goes down you just exercise option and sell out at entry price taking the loss of the premium. you could kinda consider it like a guaranteed stop/loss

btw if u want risk... try options on futures - derivatives on derivatives! you can also get options on options lol (hmm i wonder if you can get options on options on futures ;) )

KJ
31-07-2005, 11:47 AM
Keep it simple if you ask me.

KJ
22-03-2006, 01:47 PM
Couple of good months for trading-I guess traders must be fairly happy with plenty of opportunities.How are others finding it?

trackers
31-03-2006, 04:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Does the above mean that ASX and NZX are on the whole fully priced and that bargains or even good value stocks are few and far between? That's certainly my feeling at the moment.


^
|

yip.

Deev8
03-04-2006, 06:30 PM
Is trading getting harder? - not if you take Will Rogers advice:
"Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up; then sell it. If it don’t go up don’t buy it."

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/2949.html