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arco
11-03-2005, 01:50 PM
Might be worth checking out.
Entry based on Evening Star pattern.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/031005a.gif

arco
22-06-2005, 03:12 PM
Broadening Top showing on the daily.

Might be worth a look.

arco
05-07-2005, 11:36 AM
Off to a nice start with a max
of circa 140 pips so far.

Possible Gann support level - 8359.

arco
06-07-2005, 03:49 PM
E bye gum, those megaphones are running hot.

.........add another 80pips o/n = 220.

......but keep your eye on Major Gann @ 82.81
- he can always throw a spammer in the works. [:0]

slam
09-09-2005, 08:32 AM
Anyone catch this one, (talk about after the horse has bolted)
Couple of nice familiar patterns on the daily. Should have picked it with the way the JPY has been against other pairs.
Just looked to late[:I]

Cheers
Slam

arco
05-10-2005, 11:53 AM
We could be looking at big biccies here once/if we can confirm a reversal at the Butterfly target zones.

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/05102005_butts_180.gif

slam
05-10-2005, 01:10 PM
Good timing arco;)
I see the AUD taking a plunge against USD and JPY

Cheers
Slam

slam
05-10-2005, 04:30 PM
You short this one arco?
got an order filled at 86.99:)
happy so far
Is that your target off the bottom of the chart there arco?[:p]

Cheers
Slam

arco
05-10-2005, 05:27 PM
Slam

I've got a short order in a bit higher up but its not been hit yet. I'm trying a long at the moment seeing if I can ride it up to the short. Umm could come unstuck..... -6 .....perhaps not such a good idea with hindsight. [V]

Re that target....would'nt it be nice - circa 600 pips
I tried to conceal those boxes in the corner, but nothing misses your eagle eyes ;) The mid blue box is the first area to aim for.

Of course, anything might happen and I will need to re-align those boxes if/once we get the reversal.

arco

arco
06-10-2005, 09:21 AM
I reversed this trade at 2350 hrs last night and went short at 86.50. A little caution may be required.

+33

arco

arco
06-10-2005, 10:24 AM
Major Gann at 8593 so I have bagged the pips for now.
See if/when this Gann breaks and can re-enter.

arco

slam
07-10-2005, 09:08 AM
Still short
Slow mover this one but AUD not looking good against USD either compared with other crosses so should keep some presure on it

Cheers
Slam

slam
07-10-2005, 09:56 AM
Geeez, the interest on this one piles up[B)]

arco
07-10-2005, 10:00 AM
Yep, its a b*itch. [B)]

Ideally you need to be long on this one and then it earns in similar proportions.

arco

peat
10-10-2005, 08:16 AM
what are your thoughts on this one now arco
looks like it was forming a triangle lately
and now this morning there seems to be some wild gyrations!!

arco
10-10-2005, 09:59 AM
Hi Peat

I dont see any reason to indicate it is about to do an about turn at the moment with the long upper wick on Fridays candle giving a bearish note. Current action appears to be forming a Symmetrical Triangle on the 1 hour which would normally indicate a continuing move in the same direction once/if the pattern breaks south.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101005abut_330.gif

arco

peat
10-10-2005, 10:32 AM
cool
thats what I was thinking
but you put it much better ;)

slam
18-10-2005, 03:50 PM
Taken this short again
Bit of presure on the AUD atm
See how we go

Cheers
Slam

arco
18-10-2005, 04:15 PM
If/when that first blue box get bypassed there is alot of clear air below.

arco

slam
18-10-2005, 04:23 PM
Hi arco
Yeah, may have jumped the gun with this one[:I]
going the wrong way already
tight stop on it though

Cheers
Slam

arco
18-10-2005, 04:40 PM
Well you may be saved by the topping resistance and the DT line. Wheres your stop ?

arco

slam
18-10-2005, 06:18 PM
.45

slam
18-10-2005, 08:08 PM
Stopped:(

Xerof
16-11-2005, 10:14 PM
Haven't traded this one before, and see from previous postings that it's a beasty, as most yen crosses are.

But it may be worth shouldering arms around 8740 with a reasonably tight stop above the previous 'head'


Using my new toy, I have L2 Gann resistance at the same level.

Colonel Arco, if you're not at sea presently, cruising on those profits, you might like to confirm the positioning of the Major[:I]

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/1209/audjpy1lm.png

peat
23-05-2007, 03:17 PM
ascending triangle looking at the hourly over the last few days?

the horizontal line at the top is at 99.9 and the increasing troughs start from 99.2; 99.4 and 99.6 , theoretically a break of 100 would signal a buy with a 80 pip target.

arco
23-05-2007, 05:06 PM
Hi Peat

Haven't been trading this one lately, but just
noticed there was a buy signal at 10.30 am which
would have given 20 pips so far. :(

100.00 is obviously the serious resistance round
number (and also a major Gann line). If that
breaks it gives a possibility for more
northbound movement.

arco

peat
23-05-2007, 05:29 PM
hopefully your buy signal is still in place.
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/9615/audjpyhourly23052007asciy2.jpg
the awesome oscillator went green about midday.

peat
24-05-2007, 07:54 PM
So I closed this out before I went to sleep last nite at about 2:30. Something positive anyway.
It would seem that there was a very tradeable setup here but my target was a bit optimistic (at this stage anyway).
In future with a textbook pattern like this I will trade the breakout a bit more aggressively position size-wise , but take some profits progressively i.e sooner than the theoretical target.

arco
24-05-2007, 08:11 PM
Evening Peat

Yes, it was starting to look a bit tired afer 11pm.

Anyway, you got out near the top and made a profit,
so thats good.

Any trades on at the mom??

(I'm short Euro +16...watching carefully tho).

regards - arco

peat
24-05-2007, 09:14 PM
Reversing tack somewhat here and looking at this from a longer perspective the AUD/JPY actually matches all requirements of the Fib reversal strategy that I've talked about from my book

1/ Completed a 5 wave pattern
2/ Crossed over the 261 fib extension
3/ Price has moved lower than the low on the highest day

More conservatively , a short position should not be taken until an abc pattern has emerged and the c wave has broken through the lows of the a wave. That would be at 99.15

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/8297/audjpydaily24052007oo7.jpg

peat
24-05-2007, 09:23 PM
Note how on that previous picture the above strategy applied to the 161 ext would have been painful several times (the strategy encourages re-entry after being stopped if the entry rule conditions are satisfied again) but would have ultimately given the 400 pip target back to the 100% level (and potentially 550)

peat
25-05-2007, 01:01 PM
99 has been hit now.... I cant trade away from home but supposedley thats the short signal - target 500 pips @ 95
Looking quickly, similar stuff is happening on Eur/Jpy as well. target there 159... currently 162.46

didint get quite the same levels on USD GBP or CHF yen crosses.

peat
25-05-2007, 06:33 PM
just checked my trading platform and little did i know that a stop I'd left in place at 100.08 was hit so currently +70 on this now.

[:I][:I]

:D:D

arco
25-05-2007, 07:05 PM
Nice going Peat

http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/yahoo.gif

peat
25-05-2007, 07:13 PM
I kind of have the satisfaction of having identified (and posted) the trade tho not really the satisfaction of trading it except by a chance error. I will smile sheepishly but still bank the pips.
The reason I opened the platform was to short it at around 99.5 tho.

peat
25-05-2007, 11:26 PM
thought I had to bail on it to preserve +30

peat
29-05-2007, 01:44 PM
is it bombs away this time? :(

arco
29-05-2007, 04:35 PM
Hi Peat

Certainly a nice divergence showing and the Chikou looks poised to beak through.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/aud.jpy.gif

regards - arco

dumbass
09-10-2007, 06:42 PM
bat on an alternate bat , q stick in divergence

rsi trend line still intact

arco
09-10-2007, 08:21 PM
DB

Yes, I was looking at this earlier today and it has alot of potential IMO.

We just need to see a nice reversal signal now.

rgds - arco

arco
29-11-2007, 09:33 PM
Looking like Aud.Jpy is printing a 5/3/5 correction.

If correct it could provide a nice move south off a
confirmed reversal pattern circa 'B' region to target
towards the boxed area 'C'

A break north past 101.28 would void the pattern.

The Blue shape has an extended C leg, but this does not
affect the eventual target area which is based on the red BF
and calcs are taken from the higher point.

arco

peat
05-01-2008, 01:50 AM
wasnt really playing the NFP as such but 81 pips was had immediately

dumbass
23-04-2008, 06:21 PM
possible gartley printing on trend line

possible third wave commencing

waiting for confirmation to go short around 98 at present

peat
30-04-2008, 10:25 AM
nice call DA

could be more still.... notice that it did another 78% retracement of the fall from 97.5 to 96.16 , that is back to 97.20, so could be opportunity for next wave down soon

dumbass
30-04-2008, 11:29 AM
thanks peat

yeh woke up this morning and trailing stop closed me out for 150 +

but saw the set up your talking about , its also the 50 % retracement of the complete move down and am back in short at 97 15

hope you bagged a few and will see you soon

arco
30-04-2008, 01:53 PM
Hi All


The action is testing the TL break, so hard to say if its
finished rising or not. Safer long term entry might be after
the first wave has proved a reversal.

rgds - arco

peat
01-05-2008, 07:06 AM
cheers arco
I lost a few on that re-entry but not as many as I'd made on the way down....
see Paul I'm still waiting for my mojo to return hahah.

This week replaced one silver position at 16.5

was trying to build a Eur$ long position in the mid 1.55's but couldnt hold it against the spikes down. breakeven as I'd scalped on the spikes up as well. was thinking that Eur must bounce if USD rates went lower. How untypically fundamental of me. Also was seeing momentum wane for shorts of xxx/USD.

Fed has cut by .25

[Dow Jones] Key sections from the FOMC policy statement: "Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters." Also, "Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months...uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully."

dumbass
01-05-2008, 10:33 AM
morning peat

got stopped like you but still positive pips for move

i reckon the bullish engulfing and tl bounce means short is off the table for moment

getting close to risk limit at 100 + which should provide a low risk test so still watching

for another go

may the mojo be with you

dumbass
29-05-2008, 05:40 PM
looks like gartley following through into butterfly

104 worth a look if it makes it

dumbass
26-06-2008, 11:25 AM
hi peat and roddy , hope you had a good holiday peat

was watching this one heading into the 103.50 - 104 area where there is a reversal box for a gartley (green) and also a butterfly (red)

similar to eur jpy roddy , some nice trendlines waiting to be broken for confirmation

so watching closely for short

dumbass
04-07-2008, 05:29 PM
nice 350 + pip short channel from 103.67 top

now possible short entry again on gartley at 103 area risking 60 pips against that top

watching closely

peat
08-07-2008, 05:28 PM
yeh I was already in before your post DA from about 102.9
closed a third now at 101.79. IPO 101.55

dumbass
08-07-2008, 07:54 PM
nice one peat

just closed out looks like its stalling

had the kitchen sink,microwave and fridge on

peat
08-07-2008, 09:42 PM
yes I closed another third at 101.49
time for a new kitchen then DA!

peat
03-01-2009, 12:18 AM
a butterfly within a gartley
always seemed a brave attempt and its been a bit testing but starting to happen now

stop was just below the green but moved up to break even now.

arco
21-11-2009, 12:02 PM
Great move this week and I have now closed off at +240 pips. Lets see what early next week brings - there may be more opportunities

http://i47.tinypic.com/2e3ba0o.jpg

peat
08-01-2014, 11:34 AM
Seeing as I am all about the wedge at the moment (see TradeMe thread ) thought I would pick up on one here in the volatile Ozzie/Yen cross.

A wedgish correction forming after the rise from 92.90 (mustard lines)
it also happens to be a slightly deep bullish gartley, (white triangles)

5283


so I had to have a go

5284

still on track, looking ok so far, closed one third out already for +37 which derisks the trade somewhat.

peat
08-01-2014, 04:29 PM
closed another one +68

5287

peat
09-01-2014, 08:41 AM
well this one seems to have done its wedgie reversal and I've closed them all out
as you may be able to see from this pic I put another limit buy on before I went to sleep (blue square) , which got hit (blue upwards triangle) and that could have offered another 40 odd pips however I hadn't set any target so as the price sank overnite the trailing stop loss kicked in at +5 (orange circle) , and I just closed the final position +9 (downwards orange triangle)

120 pips all up with the four positions. yay 2014

5290

this could turn bullish again but with the over-riding sentiment on the AUD bearish I am not going to speculate on that. from the wedge perspective , and possibly the gartley this pattern trade has now completed