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Xerof
24-03-2005, 10:50 PM
One of my favorite 'big picture' fundamentalists, worth a read - their latest rendition on a theme they've pushed for the past couple of weeks

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106020/content.asp?menu=market&banner=bsc

download the link at bottom for chart

Xerof

arco
29-03-2005, 08:18 AM
Yes Xerof, interesting article from Black Flag.
From your experience do you find their predictions accurate?

Incidentally, I did mention on 24 Feb in another forum.

AUD.USD
NZD.USD
AUD.NZD

......... all look like shorts medium term IMO.

Arco

Xerof
29-03-2005, 10:25 AM
Arco,

re Black Swan article - I have found them to be early indicators of directional moves in the past, but like any commentary primarily based on fundamentals, the next data set can change a view pretty quickly. I like to keep a wary eye on what they are saying as it all helps to build a more complete perspective. Jack Crooks certainly gives an incisive perspective, IMO

But "In a New York minute
Everything can change
In a New York minute
Things can get pretty strange" - Don Henley

And yes, I have posted my plaudits re your earlier calls elsewhere. I was calling for one more exhaustive rally, before a change in trend, but was not to be. Certainly think the uptrend is over now, confirmed by the break of .7150. A few commentators now calling for 60 cents in the fullness of time. I'll take it a step at a time but will play from short side now

regards

Xerof

arco
29-03-2005, 11:34 AM
Spotted this on cyber-travels.......

MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Risks Skewed To Downside - ANZ
Risks surrounding AUD/USD have altered substantially, and rather than be a buyer on dips, ANZ now a seller of rallies.

Craig Ferguson, senior currency strategist, says there's still some potential for a final drive to above 0.8000, but confidence for such a move now only 20% to 30%. Now expects AUD/USD at 0.6600 by December 2005 and 0.6200 by December 2006. Pair now 0.7675.

Craig Ferguson was the most bullish on the Aud in the past 6-9months

Yeah, got butterflies in your tum now eh Craig !! ;)

arco
29-03-2005, 02:41 PM
A little more fundamental info

AMP Bet on Australian Dollar Drop as Growth Ebbs State Street Corp., the biggest provider of investment services to institutions, and AMP Capital Investors are betting the Australian dollar will end a three-year advance as the Asia-Pacific region's fifth-largest economy slows.

The firms plan to reduce their use of derivatives contracts that protect them from an appreciation in the Australian dollar, said executives at the companies. Colonial First State Investment Management, Australia's biggest investor, said it hasn't hedged since 2003 and considers the currency "overvalued.''
"The need to hedge international equity exposure back to Australian dollars is far less compelling than it was a few years ago,'' said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist in Sydney at AMP, Australia's second-largest money manager. ``An Australian economy that is slowing and an interest- rate differential that is probably going to narrow with the U.S. also argue for a lower currency.'' Oliver said the Australian dollar may weaken to 75 U.S. cents by year-end, from 77 cents at 8:20 a.m. in New York on March 28. The currency is being buffeted by the slowest economic growth in four years last quarter and a record drop in consumer confidence this month. The proportion of manufacturers expecting to increase production is at a three-year low, according to an industry survey on March 18. The yield Australian government 10-year bonds offer above similar-maturity Treasuries narrowed to 1.10 percentage points March 28, half a percentage point below the level of a year ago. The average for the past two years is 1.35 percentage points.The Australian dollar is overvalued at these levels near 80 cents,'' Warren Bird, head of fixed interest and foreign exchange at Colonial in Sydney, said in an interview. "We have no interest in hedging now.'' Colonial First State Investment Management, Australia's largest money manager with A$100 billion of investments, doesn't hedge any of its A$2.6 billion of global equities. Bird hasn't protected against gains in the Australian dollar since July 2003 when the currency rose above 68 cents for the first time since February 1998. If Dryden, Oliver and Bird are correct, investors who listen to JPMorgan Chase & Co, Deutsche Bank AG and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may suffer. The median forecast of the 36 traders, investors and strategists polled between Jan. 4 and Jan. 20 was for a drop to 76 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey published Jan. 27.
Slowing economic growth and a narrowing interest-rate advantage will weaken the Australian dollar by Dec. 31, said Oliver, who has worked at AMP since 1984.
Australia's economy grew 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the government said on March 2. The slowest pace of expansion in four years spurred speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will limit interest rate increases this year. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 5.5 percent on March 2, the same day the growth figures for the final three months of last year were published. It was the first increase in 15 months. The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate for overnight loans between banks seven times since June to 2.75 and said inflation pressures are picking up. The statement spurred speculation the Fed will scrap its policy of gradual increases. The Australian dollar may also decline because traders are betting on its advance in near record numbers, said Oliver. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 54,991 on March 22, more than three times the yearly average of 16,224 figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The positioning story is negative, with all the traders long the Australian dollar, there is less of them to buy,'' said Oliver. A trader who is long an asset bets on it gaining.

Xerof
29-03-2005, 05:14 PM
To be fair on Craig, he did say a break of .7770 would be a signal that the (double)top at .8005 and .7088 was now "in."

My only current concern is that the decline does seem rather orderly, but if it can gain some momentum to the downside over the next few days, it'll be safe to stay short for the medium term target of around 65 cents.

Note that as well as record longs on the IMM, the Uridashi maturity profile for April/May is also a rather large number[:0][:0], so keep an eye on new issuances - if they don't appear, then the overhang of AUD longs may be just a tad too much for the market to handle.....[:p]

Commodities don't look that flash either, Kiwi looks terrible - USD looks good for the moment....

Oh well, may as well just go and sell some more....:D:D

Xerof

Xerof
29-03-2005, 10:23 PM
0931 GMT [Dow Jones] ABN-AMRO says latest IMM spec positioning data (released before Fri's close) up to and including Tue Mar 22 shows USD short positions were cut to $11.9B from $15.3B in the prior week. A reduction in CHF, JPY and GBP longs made up most of the shift, although AUD longs continue to defy gravity, remaining close to recent record longs.

Might have been a bit of long liquidation over the Easter period, but oh dear, this could get nasty.

Caveat Emptor, as they say:D:D

Xerof

PS This fact (no major liquidation) may explain why its been quite an orderly decline so far...

arco
30-03-2005, 10:31 AM
The Aussie and Kiwi have historically been volatile currencies but the factors underlying the strength of the past few years is clear. Interest rates in Australia and New Zealand have been high relative to the other major currencies and commodity prices are generally firm. In March of 2004 the interest rate advantage began to deteriorate. There is a delay between changes in the interest differential and when it affects a currency, but it has been a year and this is a negative sign for the AUD. The CRB index rose 23% in 2002, 9% in 2003, 11% last year, but the cycles argue they have formed a significant peak. The factors that previously supported the Aussie are now weighing against it.

Xerof
04-04-2005, 04:56 PM
AS long as RBA don't do anything stupid, downside dominates for this week

0.7700 currently

Xerof

arco
05-04-2005, 08:51 AM
Xerof

The short term uptrend line has been broken,
and is being tested for change of polarity.

I will be initially looking at 7568, with
thoughts of 7324-7446 which is about where
the medium term uptrend line should intersect.

Currently 7669.

Arco

Xerof
07-04-2005, 05:08 PM
AUD has done five waves off its circa 80 cent high, and has held trendline support circa .7625. Bounced nicely today and looks like it'll rally towards .7750/80 area before heading lower again in killer wave C

Xerof

arco
14-04-2005, 12:04 PM
7813 should hold any further advance....
reversal southbound imminent IMO

Xerof
14-04-2005, 07:31 PM
Arco, I don't disagree with you, but here's another EW interpretation to consider. Hmmm

www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/111180/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis


regards

Xerof

arco
14-04-2005, 08:39 PM
Good Evening Xerof

Many thanks for the link.
I will study their EW counts and give my
thoughts tomorrow AM.

I took my profit on AUD a few days ago, and have not
re-entred as yet. I would prefer to see if the 7813
will hold as resistance before taking the plunge.

arco

arco
15-04-2005, 09:48 AM
Good Morning Xerof

I tend to do my own wave-thing so I will
leave long term EW counts for the
E-wavers to argue over. ;)

My interest is in the short/medium term
movements, and my thoughts are as follows.

The recent high was a '5'

The recent low is a 5 leg move, forming either 1 or A.

7813 (previously mentioned) is a possible strong
resistance area IMO. (If this fails AUD's next move
will be higher). That line is holding so far, and
overnight action has formed a Bearish Engulfing Candle,
with the oscillator dipping below zero.

arco

Xerof
15-04-2005, 02:56 PM
Good Afternoon Arco,

To my untrained Gartley eye, was there not a bearish Gartley evident on the daily AUD/USD chart, which has broken to downside to perfection in the past 24 hours?

Xerof

IMO Aud looks ready to tank lower

arco
15-04-2005, 03:56 PM
Xerof

Butterfly - Well spotted.

We now need to see a break of the recent pivot low.

arco

Xerof
16-04-2005, 07:20 PM
Recent lows around .7630 complete a, .7803 seen few days ago was b, wave c now in progress IMO, and might be a chance early this week to sell (or add if already short) at around 7750, (stop above 7780) then tora tora tora, dive dive dive[:p][:p][:p]

good luck, happy trading

Xerof

edit: has become a little more convoluted so wave counts mentioned above no longer apply - curently in a c or ii to equal first a at 7803

Xerof
21-04-2005, 08:04 PM
Well, here we are in the mid 77's as forewarned. Will now run a trailing sell stop entry, as this rally might just stretch to low 78's

Xerof

arco
26-04-2005, 12:19 PM
IMO 7812 could provide formidable resistance,
forming the end of a 'B' wave before 5 down.

arco
26-04-2005, 02:54 PM
Hers a chart showing the levels

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04262005.gif

arco

arco
27-04-2005, 07:58 AM
Easy 50 pips overnight for short term traders......

arco
27-04-2005, 02:33 PM
Here's the chart.....I hope.
(Please let me know if its not showing).

.........Currently +64 pips

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/arco/042605%201hr%20Aud.Usd.gif

Xerof
27-04-2005, 02:48 PM
not showing Arco

arco
27-04-2005, 03:31 PM
Thanks Xerof
A problem with the image host.

Try this now.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/042605_1hr_aud.usd.gif

arco

Xerof
27-04-2005, 03:43 PM
Yes, the famous Gartley is there for all to see !!

Thanks Arco

Dazza
27-04-2005, 05:18 PM
someone mind explaning what the gartley is ? and how one can see it and what it means ?

*am going to buy that trading by candlesticks book at boarders, will start to play with good old FX , initial capital of 2k, risking 200 in the stop losses, using mini conracts via IG markets*

using the 2k outlay as training if i lose it all then meh only 10 weeks wages for me :D

Xerof
27-04-2005, 05:38 PM
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp will give you a brief outline, but Arco is the main man for Gartleys.

regards


Xerof

p.s. Dazza, strongly suggest you start with a demo account before tossing your capital at it. Rather see you in for the long term than blow your dough in 5 minutes and give up

arco
28-04-2005, 08:18 AM
Dazza

quote:*am going to buy that trading by candlesticks book at Borders

I have most, if not all, of the candlestick trading manuals. My recommendation would be Steve Nisons 'Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques'. It is much more in-depth than the others.
There is more to candlesticks (or any price movement analysis) than just a bunch of patterns, names, formations...the other books are far too brief. I cannot emphasise this enough. IMO it is not advisable to trade on candlestick patterns alone, and you will need to use them with other indicators to confirm possible trades.

Re Gartley
One of the formations that Larry Pesavento (Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition / Profitable Patterns for Stock Trading )looks for is the Gartley pattern, which is named after H. M. Gartley who wrote 'Profits in the Stock Market' in 1935.

arco

arco
28-04-2005, 08:42 AM
Dazza

I should have mentioned this site which might get you started
while you wait for your choosen candlestick book.

http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytrading-candlestick-course.htm

arco

Dazza
28-04-2005, 02:25 PM
cheers for the reply, and yeah i will look into other indicators thanks,

currently with IG markets, and it seems their charts are stupid... no long term stuff in their charts unfortunately eh....

thanks for the books, ill go find it somewhere

arco
29-04-2005, 08:19 AM
The pattern may be an emerging Butterfly, not a Gartley.

Stopped out for +26 pips.......small beer [V]

Xerof
29-04-2005, 09:16 AM
Hehe, also stopped for +3 - I'll have to go for a free wine tasting Arco:D:D

arco
03-05-2005, 10:56 AM
Heres one for you to peruse Xerof....
discovered today.....and still trying
to understand.

The partial Ceppro v7 display below provides us with a glimpse into the future for the daily AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.

The top display uses ALL AVAILABLE (Historical) daily price data for the Australian Dollar (including nite session) fed into the program.

The center 'grid' display uses only the most recent price data, approximately two years worth of recent data, to formulate its results. Like the top Historical display, the calculations are strictly 'cyclical' (no mathematics involved) in that it uses pattern matching and detrending techniques, and then the final results are formulated into 'clusters' to isolate the 'peak' dates for trading purposes (the expected turns).

The bottom 'grid' uses no pattern matching or detrending at all. It is based strictly on mathematics (market geometry - X/Y 'time/price' relationships) to formulate its results (these are called 'Fdates').

Note that the bottom two grids are in complete agreement although the method of calculation is night and day. The upper date list (Historical) is in agreement with the exception that its turn dates are shifted one bar to the left.

http://69.94.4.154/userpics/pic3736.gif

http://69.94.4.154/cgi-bin/webbbs_config.pl?read=3736

I have made some notes on my charts, so will be
interested to see what transpires.

arco

Xerof
03-05-2005, 11:41 AM
Arco,

This is the 'home' website for this guy.

http://www.profitmaxtrading.com/

The FAQ section has a bit more detail of his themes, and he has, of course, posted a few (profitable) examples of some calls he has made. These will doubtless be the most spectactular (and correct) ones;);)

I note he has also called a turn for the CAD in the thread below the AUD thread. Expressed (I think) as CAD about to rally, so USD/CAD about to sell off.

As you say, might be worth seeing how these turn out over the next couple of weeks.

regards

Xerof

arco
03-05-2005, 02:02 PM
Hello Xerof

Yes I am familiar with Rick Ratchford / Profitmax
from way back when we were both interested in
trying to get out head around Gann swing timing/dates.

However, he now seems to be using the Ceppro v7 programme
for calculating swing dates. I'm interested to see how this
programme performs, but there does not appear to be a trial
period.

http://www.trade2succeed.com/installs/ceppro/

Any FX positions open presently ??

arco

arco
04-05-2005, 09:53 AM
29/4
quote:The pattern may be an emerging Butterfly,
not a Gartley

Well, yes, certainly a good bearish pattern so far
with around 120 pips top to recent bottom.

Although a "Scouting Party' ventured across the
demarcation line @ 7812 they were repelled at 7840
by a large Cabbage White. Butterflies are as powerful
as bears it would seem.

To cap it all t oscillator has dropped negative of zero.

More to come, me thinks.

http://chineseculture.about.com/library/symbol/small/butterfly.gif

arco

Xerof
04-05-2005, 11:26 AM
Arco, good afternoon,

no medium term positions open at the moment, just jobbing a few small positions around.

Generally like the USD at this stage, but don't usually trade much before payrolls, so getting on with some documentation for the "Xerof fund", for want of a better name.

Yes, although I picked last Fridays messy 'spike highs' correctly, it left me square and slightly less motivated this week.

I note the CAD 'turned' last night, and AUD looks to have turned also - your friend at Profitmax might be worth following.

cheers

Xerof

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:43 AM
Anybody brave enough to sell a clean break of 7730? Might be interesting, as in wave 5 now, targeting 7580 (courtesy of a Black Swan trade setup recommendation, with a stop at 7770)

I've got enough positions on board at the moment, so won't be participating

Xerof

arco
12-05-2005, 11:26 AM
Yes there is always a danger of getting too
many positions on.

However, I do think AUD is a good candidate
for a lower move for a number of reasons.

7813 should hold as resistance.
Areas where some support may be found - 7568,
and lower if broken at 7324.

arco

arco
12-05-2005, 02:04 PM
Just spotted this..........

Dollar set to plunge
By Nicki Bourlioufas
May 12, 2005
The good time could be over with the local dollar set to plunge below US70 cents as commodity prices come off highs and foreign investment into Australia slows, according to Westpac Bank.

Westpac has forecast the local dollar will fall to US72 cents by December 2005 and to US64 cents by December 2006.

"The Australian dollar looks set for a fall in the second half of this year," said Westpac in a research report released today.

"The fundamentals do not improve in 2006 either. In fact, the unfavourable trend accelerates."

"We will see a combination of factors which have been positive over the last few years become negative," said Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan

Westpac says a narrowing gap between US and Australian interest rates will slow foreign investment into the country as the return on investments in Australia becomes relatively less attractive. That will drive down demand for the local unit.

While Australian interest rates are forecast to stay on hold at 5.50 per cent, US rates are set to climb to 4 per cent by the year's end and to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2006.

"With the US Federal Reserve moving short rates (up) faster than the long end sells off, there will be another consistent weight on the currency through most of the period under discussion," said Westpac. The pace of global growth is also set to slow, "which is a sign that commodity prices will start to peak out," said Mr Hanlan.

Already commodity prices have eased, which has hurt resource and oil stocks like BHP Billiton, Woodside Petroleum and Rio Tinto.

Westpac expects the huge US current aco**** deficit will stablilise, which will push back up demand for the US dollar, to the detriment of the local dollar.

Westpac forecasts Australian interest rates will stay on hold through 2005.

"We have argued consistently that the March rate hike was going to be the last in the cycle. We have argued that there is evidence that the economy was already slowing and that the household sector would be particularly sensitive to the move.

The Reserve Bank's official communication is now dovetailing with that view," said Westpac.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15261673%255E1702,00.html

slam
13-05-2005, 09:43 AM
Anyone else go short on this pair?
Nice orderly drop so far.
Coming up to some resistance at present but if we get through this next biggie is mid .75's

Cheers Slam

arco
13-05-2005, 09:48 AM
Hi Slam

Yes as I said yesterday.....

"However, I do think AUD is a good candidate
for a lower move for a number of reasons"

Entered short at 7720 - Currently +65

arco

Xerof
13-05-2005, 10:25 AM
Arco, good to see you are following your Buffet motto:)


7630 KEY

arco
13-05-2005, 10:41 AM
Yes Xerof, I am often thinking opposite to the crowd,
and I often get butterflies :)

Interested to know the key level 7630 mentioned
is based on what please ? (Inside info ;))

FYI I have areas that could give some support @

Circa 7612-7628 - last 3 support pivots.

7568 - 7324 Gann Levels.

7429 - Fib 50.

Yesterdays (EOD) black Marubozu
is considered a very bearish candle.

Go with the flow.

arco

Xerof
13-05-2005, 10:47 AM
No inside info, just looking at daily chart, it has held there twice recently, and as you say, three times if you count the earlier bounce from slightly lower.

IME, third time is usually lucky, i.e it breaks

Xerof

slam
13-05-2005, 11:17 AM
Hi arco
Shorted at 7721
My resistance/support mentioned was just taken from a daily support level.(as Xerof and yourself stated)
only my 3rd day trading the forex, just trying to work it all out guys:)

Cheers
Slam

arco
16-05-2005, 08:36 AM
If this is the correct EW count then there should
be more southward movement to come medium term.

http://69.94.4.154/userpics/pic3810.gif

Xerof
16-05-2005, 08:54 AM
Looks pretty good to me Arco - also seeing similar count elsewhere - 7500 target for current wave 3? (then 7570 again before hard south below 7500)


Xerof

arco
16-05-2005, 03:39 PM
Still holding this one as a longer term trade
and currently + 126. Looking at the area
7568 - a Gann line for possible hiccup.

rosemary
16-05-2005, 08:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Here's the chart.....I hope.
(Please let me know if its not showing).

Hi, do you have a formula for this Gartley butterfly, I remember seeing it many years ago, I believe there is a bearish butterfly and a bullish one. Thanks

.
........Currently +64 pips

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/arco/042605%201hr%20Aud.Usd.gif

Xerof
16-05-2005, 08:37 PM
Hello Rosemary,

Try this as a starter:

www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp

Welcome aboard the forex threads

Xerof

arco
17-05-2005, 01:37 PM
Short closed at 8.30 am - 7558.

+134

Dazza
17-05-2005, 07:14 PM
what happens afta point C on EW

and point D on gartley?

cycle repeats or?

slam
10-06-2005, 09:56 AM
Just a quick look here, but on the 1,2,4 and 8 hour chars I see a Triagle forming. If so a breakout should be close.
Will look some more:)

Cheers
Simon

slam
11-06-2005, 08:39 AM
And after a bounce or 2 down we went:)

slam
16-06-2005, 08:40 AM
Hi all
I get this one at the top of a channel on the Daily also ending an abc
wave and the 61.8 fib from the .7499 lows on the 2nd May
may start another 5 wave down
worth watching for the turn anyway.

anyone else agree?:)

cheers
slam

Edit: End of wave 4 and the larger EW wave scale (not too hot on the terminology yet):)

arco
16-06-2005, 09:14 AM
Morning Slam

As I see it, AUD is in a 5 wave move from
April 29th and currently forming c of leg 4
before reversing form leg 5.

Possible Gann resistances at 7690-7751

arco

slam
16-06-2005, 09:24 AM
Morning arco

Yep, same interpretation but my explanation probably wasn't clear. The 5(v) wave down I referred to is the 5th leg of the larger wave (the abc we just finishing being the 4th)
So just got to find the right reversal point if/when it happens for the 5th (larger)
Clear as mud:)
cheers slam
PS: still looking at the EUR/GBP and reading furiously[:I]

slam
17-06-2005, 07:14 AM
Morning All
Well this one pushed up overnight and now leg c of 4 is close to crossing leg 1 of the 5 making the count invalid.
imo if it runs to far passed.7740.
also popped up above the channel.
needs to reverse soon to keep the 5 in order

cheers
slam

arco
17-06-2005, 08:56 AM
Morning Slam

O/n spike to 7746 which is pretty close the the
Gann resistance I mentioned of 7751.

Major Gann resistance above that at 7812.

Heres a few EW Wave 4 guidelines.
(If we are in wave 4?)

Wave 4 is rarely a Zigzag based correction.
It is common for both Waves 4 & 2 to have approximately the same price movement.
Wave 4 will most often retrace more than 20% of Wave 3, including internal points.
Wave 4 will very often retrace about 38.2% of Wave 3.
Wave 4 does not often retrace Wave 3 by more than 50%.
Wave 4 will often retrace into the price territory of previous Wave 4 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 will most often retrace to the end of the previous Wave 4 of one lesser degree.

EW is an complex matter....you only have to
see the e-wavers disagreeing on counts to
know its difficult.

arco

slam
17-06-2005, 09:34 AM
Hi arco

The rule that I was working around for my theory is that wave 4 shouldn't cross wave 1 which it was close to doing on several charts.
So a lift higher would negate the count.

Cheers
slam

peat
17-06-2005, 09:41 AM
well all I know is it cost me a 100 mini pips... [B)]
I'd read some report (blackswantrading) correlating the AUD with the Dow Jones transportation index which it reckoned was about to collapse. Clearly the commodity prices increase is more overriding factor
In classic Australian parlance "No worries, mate"

arco
17-06-2005, 10:29 AM
Slam

Looking again perhaps we are on leg X (3 waves),
which can theoretically go no higher than 'B'
of the Zig Zag. If fact it may even be forming
into a double ZZ if we get a reversal of X.

I tend to use EW minimally so I could be wrong.
I will look again later.

slam
17-06-2005, 10:36 AM
arco

Maybe more plausible as the channel has been broken and the 5 under threat
I will have to get out my book for the variations on dbl zz’s though;)

cheers
slam

slam
17-06-2005, 10:38 AM
still have a few pips to go on a daily line chart though before 5 is invalid

Edit: need a close above .7744

arco
17-06-2005, 10:39 AM
Look no further.....;)

Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:

Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.

Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.

slam
17-06-2005, 11:02 AM
Cheers arco (I think:))

arco
17-06-2005, 11:23 AM
As someone once said.......quote

EW theorists engage in academic masturbation with their insistence in being able to label anything and everything. It's why so many folks don't like EW. Well, EW .....don't always work and they're not always obvious. You DON'T have to trade them everyday. Find the high probability ones and trade them. And the high probability ones are found by thinking a bit outside the box

:D

Xerof
20-06-2005, 07:45 PM
IMVuninformedO, and without digging too deeply, there seem to be Bearish Gartleys apparent on 4 and 8 hourly and daily charts? Possible reversal area may coincide with your aforementioned Major Gann resistance at 7812 Arco (BTW, I didn't realise Gann was in the military:D:D)

Then again, might just be one of those rampant trouser snakes rearing its ugly head - somehow don't think so though

Xerof

peat
20-06-2005, 10:04 PM
If i look at a number of USD crosses eg AUD, NZD, or Eur over the last 6 months I see bullish gartleys. Point A for the Euro is the Xmas/New Year peak at 1.36. Pont B - early Feb 1.28 , Point C = mid March at 1.34 and from then on D is not clear to me. Was it a failed D at 1.28 in mid April or was that an aberations and the true D reached at the recent 1.20ish lows? As has been pointed out on Tactical Trader if AB = CD then the Euro should have bottomed at about 1.25.
I dont know whether that invalidates the pattern for the Euro, but it still seems within coeey to me... If this correction happening now regained some legs and hit 1.25 that would be more mathmatically /aesthetically correct.

For the Kiwi point A is Mid March at 0.7450 coinciding with the Euro's point C, Point B is early April 0.7050 , Point C at early May 0.7350 and Point D at early Jun 0.7000. In this case the maths of AB =CD is picture perfect!

So, what does it all mean ?

Xerof
20-06-2005, 10:52 PM
Peat, see NZD.USD thread

arco
21-06-2005, 07:17 AM
Morning Peat


quote:So, what does it all mean ?

Your date assumptions appear correct but two points
have also to be considered.......

1.Gartleys and Butterflies have a 30% failure rate.

2.Gartleys can fail and turn into Butterflies.

arco

Xerof
21-06-2005, 01:39 PM
quote:20/6 - there seem to be Bearish Gartleys apparent on 4 and 8 hourly and daily charts
quote:one of those rampant trouser snakes rearing its ugly head - somehow don't think so though

Break of and close below short term trendline at 7750 should provide confirmation.

Rampant trouser snake appears to be pulling his head in[B)][B)]

Xerof

arco
21-06-2005, 02:55 PM
Watch out for the heavy Gann emplacement at 7812.

(Mentioned 17/6 and still relevant).

arco
21-06-2005, 03:11 PM
If you look at the AUD 15 min upto 3 hour charts you will see a possibility of a Broadening Top forming. (Example below)

http://www.trendmacro.com/a/goodman/200503/10derfBroad.gif

The Broadening (or Megaphone) top is a relatively rare formation that looks like an inverted triangle. Instead of increasingly narrowing fluctuations in prices, the broadening formation is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening. The most common of these patterns consists of three successively higher peaks and another line connecting the two lows combine to give the price formation its distinctive pattern. (These patterns are rarely found at market bottoms).

slam
21-06-2005, 05:46 PM
arco

If you apply this theory to the AUD chart times you have mentioned, and if we are on wave 4 down, wave 5 up (last before heading down out of the triangle)the bottom should be circa .7735
and the last top, 5, circa .7810.
This would fit with the Gann level you mentioned at .7812

Probably stating the obvious to the skilled, but thought I would anyway[8D]

Cheers
Slam

Edit: we may have already come off 4 at NZ1:00pm today at .7740

Xerof
21-06-2005, 07:04 PM
quote:Break of and close below short term trendline at 7750 should provide confirmation.



Well, Corporal Gann, with a mere 3 rounds in his colt 45 seems to have fended 'em off, for now anyway.

Xerof

Xerof
22-06-2005, 07:49 AM
Ahem, never send a boy......

arco
22-06-2005, 08:18 AM
Xerof

Thats the latest Michael Jackson saying isnt it?
:D

Well, Major Gann and his band of merry chaps are dug in
at 7812 and appear to be intent on repelling the
invading forces. Last post 7811.

Broadening Wedge could be on its last legs.

Slam

quote:the bottom should be circa .7735
and the last top, 5, circa .7810.

Spot on. I hope you rode the beast from Ghent to Aix?

So we were left galloping, Joris and I,
Past Looz and past Tongres, no cloud in the sky;
The broad sun above laughed a pitiless laugh,
’Neath our feet broke the brittle bright stubble like chaff;
Till over by Dalhem a dome-spire sprang white,
And ‘Gallop,’ gasped Joris, ‘for Aix is in sight!’

arco

slam
22-06-2005, 11:47 AM
Hi arco

Did indeed:D
Thanks for the heads up on the pattern

Cheers
slam

slam
22-06-2005, 11:24 PM
looking for an extended 5th any luck
if we can get through the 61.8 fib;)

slam
23-06-2005, 06:50 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam

looking for an extended 5th any luck
if we can get through the 61.8 fib;)


well, couldn't get through so back up she goes

arco
23-06-2005, 09:17 AM
Slam

Can't figure your EW count. Can you paste a chart?

I am still considering the scenario I mentioned on 17/6

Looking again perhaps we are on leg X (3 waves),
which can theoretically go no higher than 'B'
of the Zig Zag. If fact it may even be forming
into a double ZZ if we get a reversal of X.

So perhaps the 3rd wave ended at 7809 and reversal
is in play.

EOD chart is showing a 2nd Harami with small divergence.

arco

slam
23-06-2005, 10:13 AM
arco

Just different time frames
I was looking at a lhr chart and the pattern from the expanding triangle, very short term
(just procrastinating really)

Sorry to confuse the issue[:I]
Cheers
Slam

arco
23-06-2005, 04:15 PM
Might now be turning from a Broadening Top
into a Diamond Top.

http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/Imaged20.jpg

arco
24-06-2005, 08:01 AM
Oh, the grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up to the top of the hill
but then when he saw Major Gann
he marched Them down again.

Intended to post this yesterday but
ran out of time.

So here we see the power of TA.
Many signals.
Broadening Top, Twin Harami's,
Diamond Top, Major Gann
and his merry resistance band,
etc, etc.

Entered short @ .7800 (red arrow)... + 86 currently


http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/megaphone.gif

Slam - are you on board the southbound express ?

arco

slam
24-06-2005, 08:16 AM
Hi arco
yep, still in there:)
That chart looks a bit like a bullish gartley, but on last nights action now looks more like a butterfly
I'm not to hot on the exact xabcd ratios, but just a quick observation
Any thoughts either way arco?
Running a tight stop on this one atm anyway;)
cheers
slam

lakedaemonian
24-06-2005, 08:20 AM
I've only recently been watching the AUD/USD cross.....I took my first small punt short at .7880

slam
24-06-2005, 08:25 AM
lakedaemonian
took that position a while back, mid feb was the last time it was around there.
wish I had your nerves

nice wee profit now:)

cheers
slam

arco
24-06-2005, 08:36 AM
Slam

The plot was looking like it could form a Gartley
or a Butterfly - hence the red lines I placed to see if
anyone was awake.;)

Currently the action is approaching the Butterfly
possible (short term?) reversal zone which starts
circa 7703.******

So thats the obvious spot to start looking for something
to happen. Medium term that nasty red candle overnight
certainly gives a bit of a bearish look.

***** Always remember the Gartley and Butterfly
patterns have a 30% failure rate so nothing can
be absolutely certain.

arco

arco
24-06-2005, 02:35 PM
Recent low 7692 - which is not a million
miles away from Mr Ganns 7703.

I've taken the profit, and very nice too
for a stress free weekend.

slam
30-06-2005, 08:03 AM
covered position in my sleep:)
nice wee trade

arco
30-06-2005, 08:37 AM
Always good to insure you have blanket cover.

slam
30-06-2005, 08:57 AM
What now arco?
imo we won't see a big corective on this one.
On the 8hr it even looks like we could be shaping up for a 3,5.
Has major gann got anything lerking around that could cause a problem?

cheers
slam

arco
30-06-2005, 09:23 AM
Slam

Its was Major Ganns troops at 7568 who
proved their worth by repelling last nights
advance whilst you slept blisfully unaware
of the battle in progress.

AUD is cornered with 2 more battalions above
at 7629 and 7690.

I have no doubt they will double back and with
the help of Marshall Riley's Army eventually
conquer the position at 7568, run for home, heading
due south for Lindisfarne.

arco

PS. Those who played with the Megaphone entry
point mentioned will be sitting with a nice
proportion of the maximum 217 pips in their
account - I trust.

slam
30-06-2005, 09:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco



PS. Those who played with the Megaphone entry
point mentioned will be sitting with a nice
proportion of the maximum 217 pips in their
account - I trust.


;)

Cheers arco
might look to re-enter around the 7690 if it gets there, but I think the first may be the last

slam

arco
04-07-2005, 08:02 AM
quote:30.6 - AUD is cornered with 2 more battalions above
at 7629 and 7690.

I have no doubt they will double back and with
the help of Marshall Riley's Army eventually
conquer the position at 7568, run for home, heading
due south for Lindisfarne.

Blasted throught with very little hesitation.

Megaphone entry blowing its trumpet with
circa 300 pips uder the belt for players.
Nice......when a score works out.

Xerof
04-07-2005, 09:27 AM
Watch 7480 - potential double bottom? or start of avalanche - go with the flow

arco
04-07-2005, 12:04 PM
At 7384 it would be getting pretty overcooked
in the short term. (Gann also at 7438/7500).

And further down in the murky depths the old
uptrend line beckons - always a possibility
perhaps.

Hey, but what do I know [V]]

zyreon
04-07-2005, 12:21 PM
caught BBCs asia business report before, they had a guy on the phone from some australian firm suggesting this week will continue the fall of AUD and EUR vs USD.

when pressed he gave estimates of 1.15-1.16 for the euro and 113 or something for the yen

cited various strengths in US economy etc etc and upbeat outlooks as well as data at end of this week e.g. payrolls. also mentioned the breach of psychological levels in the exchange rates

they usually repeat their shows quite often verbatim...

arco
06-07-2005, 09:53 AM
Yeah, he got those 115 Eur estimates off my
ST EUR post :D

AUD looks pretty over cooked at 7383 and could
be ready for a rest. The battle through 3 Gann
divisions was tiring and there could be a wee
move north to collect stragglers before the
strong march south continues.

IMVHO

Xerof
06-07-2005, 11:18 AM
from our global-view guru, the expected defences at 7447 were lowered, in partial deference to strong momentum, to 7409, with more at 7385. You're right Arco, a re-grouping to slightly higher plateau is occuring before the strike recommences.

Could be quite choppy for a few days as the Titans battle amongst themselves - plenty of scope for pip raiders to nip heels at each end of a 7405/7465 range?

Xerof

arco
06-07-2005, 11:57 AM
Xerof

Is there anyone else on GV
that posts reliable info ?

arco

Xerof
06-07-2005, 01:11 PM
Arco, I find Gold Coast Martin is by far the most reliable in terms of levels, direction and timing. The vast bulk of posters are pip raiders/day traders if that rattles your cage.

There are a few other genuine posters who can add scent to the pot pourri:D:D

Peat may like to add his comments to this.

regards

Xerof

arco
06-07-2005, 03:00 PM
Thanks Xerof

"vast bulk of posters are pip raiders/day traders"

The main reason why I don't participate - cant
be bothered with scalping 1 or 2 pips at a time.....
........too frustrating

I have to say I find it strange that a guy like
GCM would even bother to post. Unless he works
on his own and feels the need of companionship.

arco

Xerof
08-07-2005, 10:09 AM
Much as I hate to admit it, I took further advantage of the seismic pulse in London last evening and tipped out a sliver of AUD at 7450


Xerof

Xerof
08-07-2005, 10:10 AM
WOW, just noticed I have another sheriffs badge, and have joined the geriatrics

arco
08-07-2005, 10:21 AM
Congratulations Sherroff Xerof.....

Your target is to become a LEG-END...(5000)
now that will be something to shout about:D

slam
08-07-2005, 03:09 PM
AUD looking at new lows
But on the 2hour and less charts, the oscillator doesn’t agree
Anyone else see that? or have I been up to long[|)]

Cheers slam

arco
08-07-2005, 04:41 PM
Slam

Which osc you using?

peat
08-07-2005, 05:36 PM
Yeh theres a lot of drivel on global-view for sure, and a lot of Engrish as well. see engrish.com if u dont kno what I mean.
There are others who make good comments eg Dallas GEP ; Tallin Viies, and others ... some guy from Havelock has been increasingly vocal too [:p] but martin is so far and above the others that he is the only one worth following imo.
And as regards why he does it? Yes a good question because he doesnt seem to be driven by ego which is what I always thought would drive people to post their market predictions and 'prove' themselves on forums. He has stated that forex has done him well so he just wants to put something back into the forex community. You're obviously pretty good at this game Arco, why do you post your strategies and calculations?

slam
08-07-2005, 05:42 PM
Hi arco
Ultimate Oscillator UOS 10;20;30

slam

Xerof
08-07-2005, 06:48 PM
Peat,

speaking only for myself, I post my views for 2 reasons - first, simply to vocalise my thoughts, which helps me clarify in my own mind whats going on, and second, if there is a strong opposite view out there, I should (and would hope to) get a reaction telling me I'm wrong, or posts which agree with my posted view, perhaps even with better reasons than I had in the first place. In such a case I'd usually double up:D:D joking....

I guess there's a 3rd reason, which is possibly a form of 'feeding the ego', but in this game, you need all the support you can get, in whatever form it comes, otherwise you'll just get crushed.

And for me personally, there's probably a fourth reason - I've been in the markets for over 20 years now, and am always happy to assist others get on in the game, as it's the most fantastic game in town.

slam
15-07-2005, 11:25 AM
Forming a contracting triangle imo
If so this is b of the correction pattern

slam
15-07-2005, 11:34 AM
triple bottom on the hourly as well now
worth a watch for a wee run I recon;)

slam
15-07-2005, 12:09 PM
Someone’s breaking my triangle:(

Xerof
19-07-2005, 06:24 PM
A break of 7470 will see a big figure run south quite easily. Sell the break, but wait for the break, may be yet another bear trap if it were to hold 7475 again

Xerof
20-07-2005, 08:59 PM
AUD looks like its about to break out on topside of triangle on 4 and 8 hourly......35 is the level - 7480 first target. MACD confirmation is there too....

Xerof

arco
18-08-2005, 09:45 AM
Following up from the Chit-Chat thread yesterday.

Anyway for now I am short AUD.USD and long USD.CHF

Just closed off the AUD for 122 pips :D
.....almost paid for the next cruise ;)

Reasons - action has reached the 1618 fib and
could possibly form a reversal on the 10th Aug
support area, plus I will be not be here to monitor.

So happy with that profit.....
.......and CHF is up 35 pips at the moment.

Xerof
18-08-2005, 10:03 AM
Arco, another cruise?


quote:North to Alaska,
They're goin' North, the rush is on.


Johnny Horton

arco
18-08-2005, 10:19 AM
Aye, aye captain....life could be a permanent cruise
now the liners have internet facilities :D

http://hjem.get2net.dk/petermad2/vehicles/yacht1.gif

arco
25-08-2005, 01:53 PM
Resistance line on the 1 hour has been broken.
(Ascending triangle break).

Could be worth a gander.........

...I've gone all goosey just thinking about it.;)

arco
26-08-2005, 11:26 AM
TL break as mentioned yesterday gave 35+/- pips
for trigger-happy short term traders.

The TL break is just about to be tested for
acceptance of polarity change. Watch for a
possible reversal pattern on that line.

Happy trading -

arco

arco
15-09-2005, 07:49 PM
Information overload [?]

http://charts2.barchart.com/custom/tc/ADZ5.GIF

Xerof
12-10-2005, 09:30 AM
You'll have to excuse my morbid fascination with these structures, but here's another possibility for further down the road - bullish butterfly forming? - watch to see if 7400 forms a base

Comments welcome

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/921/audgartley7ed.png

Xerof

arco
12-10-2005, 10:01 AM
Xerof

Yes there are 3 structures in play, and they all look down.
Plus add a break of the uptrend line and the south looks very inviting.

arco

arco
18-10-2005, 12:04 PM
Went short AUD last night on a conservative entry technique @ 7518.

Currently + 38

slam
18-10-2005, 01:41 PM
Bet me by 1 pip arco:)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
27-10-2005, 05:36 PM
One more push higher for the Ozzie?

http://img484.imageshack.us/img484/9059/audusd0mv.png

Xerof

arco
27-10-2005, 07:59 PM
Ah, just checked the activity record.

Closed half of that last trade at 7473 +45, and tuther half at 7456 +62. Can't remember why now, but obviously the right choice.

As you say Xerof, perhaps a little more and then down she goes.

arco

Xerof
28-10-2005, 12:34 PM
Nice penetration of the box last night, as the actress said to the bishop, but not far enuff to accept my offer :(:(

Xerof

slam
18-01-2006, 09:38 AM
Hi All (if there's anyone there);)
Sold yesterday on failure of .7550
Just 20 pips so far but if it breaks 7480 wil go lower imo

Cheers
slam

slam
19-01-2006, 07:22 AM
Broke .7480 over night but has bounced.
Sitting on this now.
Have shifted stop to BE as I fear another bounce on the hourly.
Daily still heading south imo.

Cheers
Slam

slam
19-01-2006, 11:03 AM
Took profit and will wait for a bounce if it happens
Still looking for the WW target over the next few weeks

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
19-01-2006, 09:24 PM
Slam, ye of little faith! I was just about to post an update on progress for your nicely spotted WW, and I see you've cut and run....

Here it is anyway, circa 150 pips so far

A 'slam dunk'....:D:D

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/7695/aud6sh.png


Xerof

slam
20-01-2006, 09:02 AM
Hi Xerof
Well had to go out of town for the night[:I]
Will re enter today. got a bit of a bounce at the moment

Still have the faith:D

Cheers
Slam

slam
20-01-2006, 03:29 PM
Short again;)

slam
26-01-2006, 09:10 AM
This Wolfe must be using a zimmer frame;)

moe
26-03-2006, 11:27 AM
Ive read that within the next month $3 billion worth of $A bonds held by Japanese retail investors are set to mature. There will be even more pressure on the AUD if they choose not to roll these over and to take their money elsewhere.

Dazza
03-04-2006, 10:32 PM
when does the interest rate review meet?

i heard tomorrow?

Dazza
04-04-2006, 11:58 PM
7200 reached....

resistant level?

Dazza
05-04-2006, 12:16 AM
took the plunge, shorted at 7211

stop at 7231

no limit on, will c how in the morning it went

BackOffice
09-04-2006, 08:49 PM
Moe
I hear the jap house wives have lost a bit in NZ and will be moving to AU for as they mature

slam
22-04-2006, 06:14 AM
Hi All
Taken AUD short at .7457
tight stop at 90
Cant ignore the year long chanel this has been in;)

Cheers
Slam

arco
22-04-2006, 09:57 AM
Hi All

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/4425/042206audusd3bz.gif

regards - arco

slam
27-04-2006, 08:50 AM
Looks like it's heading for 2nd target arco.
got stopped:(
not to mind, I stopped and reversed

Cheers
Slam

arco
27-04-2006, 10:45 AM
Morning Slam

Yes a nice positive break of the DT line.

IMO we may see a reaction to some Gann/Fib clusters in the
vicinity of 7526-7568, perhaps forming a short term reversal
to test the old DT line polarity change.

regards - arco

arco
28-04-2006, 09:22 AM
Closed on 7469, so now the acid test


Edit - typo error - should read 7569

peat
28-04-2006, 11:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Closed on 7469

??
on the 25th it closed at that price

arco
28-04-2006, 03:38 PM
Apologies for typo - should read 7569

regards -arco

arco
04-05-2006, 02:01 PM
Occasionally things follow through to perfection;)

Follow up on previous posts.............

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/5436/050406audusd7iv.gif

GTA - arco

Trader_100
05-05-2006, 08:46 AM
Hi Arco,

I am very impressed with the quality of your analysis on this forum. Can you suggest come books that you have found useful on the subjects of Butterflys etc.

Cheers

T100

arco
05-05-2006, 09:13 AM
Hi Trader 100

The best source for all the info you require
is my thread here (192 pages)

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f46/collection-butterflies-17228/

and another thread here (60 pages)

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f46/fibs-journey-easy-kisses-tasteful-butterflies-15089/?highlight=Butterfly

Have fun and I look forward to seeing you posting eventually

arco

Trader_100
05-05-2006, 11:11 AM
Thanks very much arco

arco
28-07-2006, 05:05 PM
Just for something different.....Pitchforks.

Watching for any reversal signal that might appear at the point......

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/072806_daily_pf.gif

regards - arco

roddy
13-09-2006, 02:09 PM
Hi All
anybody like to comment on the possiblity of a reversal on AUD at present!
possible factors could be
>doji {Athough somewhat unusual in shape}
>.7486 is trend line support,which as i write seems to be holding.
>7495 is 38% fib level
cheers
cadet roddy

peat
13-09-2006, 02:39 PM
Roddy,
[u]Max Mckeggs </u>view =
** AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/US DOLLAR - MEDIUM TERM VIEW ** AUG.28th,.7575 - Ozzys broad & complex corrective consolidation persistsrisking return toward .7400,before the resumption of Uptrend onto 8000
*** ** SUPPORTS ** *** /7515/7500/7470/
*AUD/USD DAILY VIEW* SEPT.12th, .7500Support Ozzy's sold-off toward 7500 as expected & the risk is now increasing for corrective recovery back toward 7550,then .7585/7600
** *** RESISTANCES *** ** Resistance /7550/7565/7590/

NB this was sent to me even tho I dont subscribe now.



[u]Jyske Bank </u>published y'day

* The commodity currencies AUD, NZD, & CAD
have come a long way in a short period of time.
Consequently, we have closed down our sold pos.
and established new bought positions, as we foresee
a coming general dollar slide.

Also Jyske Bank from 11/09
The commodity currencies AUD, NZD, and CAD have all been
feeling the heat recently, and especially the AUD and the NZD
have been surrendering to the generally stronger dollar. The
slide has, however, been so impressive that we are hastily
approaching good support levels around 75 for the AUD and 63
for the NZD. Right now we are therefore very close to taking
profit on both AUD and NZD and eventually wait for clear buy
signals again.

So seems like these other views support you.....

arco
13-09-2006, 05:07 PM
Hi All

Yes, I'm in agreement there.

Looking for a possible run to 7950-8100 once
we see a confirmed turnaround.

arco

arco
05-10-2006, 04:07 PM
Is AUD ready perhaps for a north bound run?

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100506_aud.gif

regards - arco

roddy
06-10-2006, 07:37 AM
Hi Arco/Peat

Have had this on the radar for a little bit, looking for the downtrend to continue for just a few ticks yet before reversal!

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/1110/noname06jn8.jpg

regards cadet roddy(':D')

arco
12-10-2006, 03:40 PM
I mentioned on 5/10

Is AUD ready perhaps for a north bound run?

Maybe this could be the lift off.

Big surge this morning after good jobs news.

arco

Dazza
12-10-2006, 07:59 PM
damn, i shoulda keept in touch with this one &gt;&lt;

the divergance with rsi on 5 min chart was a screaming buy

oh well

i got burnt badly last week stuffing up my trades

letting it settle for now

i mean look at EURUSD 5 min chart.....
biiiiiiiig sinks followed by a little spike up, then another biiiig spike down

scary...

plus this week my shares are doing good so had to monitor them :D

hope u hopped onto this one arco

arco
12-10-2006, 09:14 PM
Hi Dazza

Good to see you on the wild side..........

Don't worry too much about getting in right at the bottom/top, or missing beginnings of moves.......once the plot goes ahead there will be plenty of time to make some serious money.

So.............

Here's my latest tip.........for anyone

.......the real money is made from the longer time frames........even weekly charts can make BIG money.


GTA - arco

slam
13-10-2006, 09:09 AM
Hi All

Agree arco:)
Scalping pips just doesn’t work all that often for me. I like the daily and weekly.
Long on this for a few days now.
+102 atm, will by more on dips

GTA

Cheers
Slam

Sorry guys, Long AUD/NZD, wrong thread Doh[:I]

arco
15-10-2006, 02:40 PM
Hi Slam

Good to see you posting again.

Heres the longer term view on a monthly AUD.USD chart. Looks like we could be in for more northward action as time progresses.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/aud.usd_101406.gif

regards - arco

peat
19-10-2006, 09:23 AM
I've swapped tack a little and gone long on this one from 7546 ... stop just below 75...

peat
20-10-2006, 07:42 AM
raised stop to almost break even currenly +50 seems like it was a good choice, almost looking overbought here but will hold for longer term.

arco
20-10-2006, 12:01 PM
Hi Peat

Nice to be in profit......

Heres an update of the Andrews Pitchfork from 5th Oct

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102006_pf.gif

Good weekend all - arco

peat
24-10-2006, 12:36 PM
saw a bit of a bearish harami on Sat morning so closed out on this over the weekend, reopened yesterday but closed that out too at break even when it got heavy... now the daily is looking quite dark cloudish. so am out for present.

peat
24-10-2006, 03:18 PM
quote:From Trade10 on the Andrews Pitchfork


In constructing the study, starting points are chosen. The first is a major peak or trough on the left side of the chart display. The second and third starting points are chosen to be a major peak and a major trough to the right of the first point. After all starting points have been decided, draw a trendline from the first point (the most left) so that it passes directly between the right most points. This line is called the handle of the pitchfork

Wheres your 'starting point' on your Andrews Pitchforks arco?

I would have thought the starting point would have been at the low of approx 0.7000 on Mar 30th. Using that I get a ludicrously steep handle , but I cant see where yours starts from on the pics you show.

I suppose its the 28th Dec 2005 low?

arco
24-10-2006, 03:35 PM
Hi Peat

27/12/05, 11/5/06, 28/6/06 (Blue)

31/1/06, 29/3/06, 11/5/06 (Red)

regards - arco

peat
25-10-2006, 10:48 AM
got back in last nite at 7579 stop 7558
had this trade emulated in my fxgame and it got stopped out last night but that didnt happen in my live system [8D][8D][8D]

peat
25-10-2006, 01:34 PM
Australian 3Q CPI +0.9% On Qtr Vs +0.7% Consensus
Australian 3Q CPI +3.9% On Yr Vs +3.7% Consensus

peat
28-10-2006, 12:15 AM
despite a number of merchant banks warnings to sell, the 'roo unit keeps goin up
.7660 = +81
stop now @ .7631

and closed out for the weekend at .7692

arco
02-11-2006, 01:00 PM
Hello All

Not quite back into the swing of things here in NZ after being away in Aus for over 5 months......but the mountain of mail is diminishing, and I hope to be back to normal by Monday.

The Aussie trade first mentioned on 5th Oct (see chart) is still going well (not far off the predicted 7813), but will have to see what transpires re the rate hike.

regards - arco in NZ :)



Australian Dollar Rises to 6-Month High Before Retail Sales

By Chris Young

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose to its highest in almost six months on speculation a government report today will show retail sales climbed a fourth month, reinforcing the case for the central bank to raise interest rates next week.

Australia's dollar has increased 4 percent in the past month to within 0.5 percent of its high this year as investors have ratcheted up bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its key interest rate when it meets next week. Retail sales data today may indicate two rate increases this year haven't curbed spending and moderated inflation pressures.

``A strong retail sales report means there's a good chance the Australian dollar will challenge its 2006 highs,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, vice president of foreign-exchange research at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``Fundamentals favor the Australian dollar.''

The currency was at 77.49 U.S. cents as of 8:25 a.m. in Sydney from 77.45 cents in late Asia yesterday. It earlier reached 77.67, the strongest since hitting a 10-month high of 77.93 cents on May 12.

The central bank raised the overnight cash rate target a quarter percentage point in both May and August to slow inflation, taking the benchmark to a 5 1/2-year high of 6 percent. All 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last week expect the Reserve Bank will raise rates again on Nov. 8.

Data Releases

Retail sales may rise 0.5 percent after climbing 0.3 percent in August, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A report yesterday showing building approvals three times stronger than forecast by economists bolstered the Australian dollar.

A separate government report today will probably show Australia's September trade deficit was little changed at A$200 million in September from a six-month low of A$208 million in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases both reports at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

Gains against the U.S. dollar have accelerated as that currency has weakened on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut its key 5.25 percent interest early rate next year. An industry report showed U.S. manufacturing growth unexpectedly slipped last month.

arco
27-12-2006, 04:45 PM
Targeting 8000 perhaps

http://www.traderji.com/attachments/forex/3812d1167194597-aud-usd-12162006-aud.usd-d.gif

regards -arco

roddy
27-12-2006, 07:33 PM
Hi Arco
Hoping you had a good Xmas
your above chart isnt displaying!
cheers roddy

arco
27-12-2006, 09:19 PM
Thanks Roddy

Click here to view..............

http://www.traderji.com/attachments/forex/3812d1167194597-aud-usd-12162006-aud.usd-d.gif

regards - arco

peat
23-01-2007, 10:02 PM
@.7916 now it seems to have reasserted itself as bullish with this break out imo.
i had a long form 7869 when it dipped down on the 20th.
Stop was originally 7635 but now raised to break even. I dont think the Aud really swallowed 80 sufficiently last time so this time will it nail it convincingly?

peat
24-01-2007, 01:06 PM
I did close this trade at 7931 last nite as stated in general chat thread. A bit lucky in that I guess with this 85 pip drop now based on :
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI +3.0% On Yr In 4Q
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI +0.5% On Qtr In 4Q
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI +2.9% On Yr In 4Q
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI +0.5% On Qtr In 4Q


Will reconsider entering long again tho tonite when I get in front of the platform , these events often dont change the underlying trend.

slam
24-01-2007, 01:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by peat

..... these events often dont change the underlying trend.



Agree Peat, FA provides TA with entry points imo;)
Unfortunatly I was still long and got stopped, big time[V][:I]
Will look when the dust settles
Cheers
Slam

Edit Typo[B)]

slam
02-02-2007, 07:03 AM
HI All
Gone long on this pair as 7700 has held, bought the bounce.
Tight stop just under yesterdays low

Cheers
Slam

slam
21-02-2007, 10:52 AM
May be forming a H&S on the Hourly
Needs to go through the neck

Cheers
Slam

slam
21-02-2007, 08:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by slam

May be forming a H&S on the Hourly
Needs to go through the neck

Cheers
Slam


And maybe not[B)];)

peat
26-03-2007, 07:55 AM
Long term perspective -
Aussie has broken out (on the upside)of a massive correction lasting from Feb 2004. This correction was long (in time) due to the previous movement before that from 2002 – 2004 was nearly 3000 pips 48.804 – 79.95. So at the current level weekly close of 80.50 that’s a 3 year high. Cant help but notice theres been a 2 year ascending triangle broken so theoretically this gives a 1000 pip target (I suppose a similar time frame - I'm not sure how to calculate that)

Daily
However daily is quite overbought on RSI tho not extreme on CMO, quite possibly CMO goes higher before a turn.
CMO = Chande Momentum Oscillator.

Bilo
26-03-2007, 10:11 AM
"1000 pt target"
Peat: in plain english, does this mean that you expect the AUD to continue to strengthen against the USD, or crash 1000pts?

peat
26-03-2007, 11:13 AM
Bilo
yeh I mean target of .90 but could be 2 or 3 year time frame and many ups and downs on the way. And of course I could be completely wrong !
Others are seeing this as the 5th and hence final wave with targets of 82-84. Tho one respected analyst agrees with me.

Im just putting out the crazy thought I had over the weekend looking at the long term charts (which arent that useful for day to day trading unless you have very deep pockets). Something for me to look back at in a few years time and laugh (or cry)

arco
26-03-2007, 03:08 PM
Hi Peat/All

.............I mentioned on Elite forum Oct/Nov last year........In the medium term I feel a significant break higher out of the Symmetrical Triangle could be on the cards. This break will test the old highs and move further north. Currently AUD is in a consolidation phase/coil waiting for a breakout.

..........The action has now moved nicely out of the Sym Tri and in the longer term I think AUD should head off towards 8930. (There are some old highs between 1990-97 that could cause some hesitate en-route)

Just need to remember how I worked out that figure [:I]

regards - arco

peat
26-03-2007, 03:30 PM
ARCO!! you made it :)
appreciate your support on this matter - I make myself quite uncomfortable when I have such outrageous ideas.

So,...playing with leverage , and short/medium term volatility it still remains a difficult proposition to trade this... while it might never go lower than 79 , 77 wouldnt be impossible, and thats 350 pips away! So need a bit of a warchest and a long term view.

Dazza
13-06-2007, 11:12 PM
Following on from my first trade

I saw a short oppotunity at around 12am,

a 50% fib retracement calculated at 8320 to 8260.

Shorted 15k at 8290, stop loss at 8310, limit at 8270.

In it just to make a quick few pips or so.

Dazza
14-06-2007, 09:57 AM
Trade #2 got stopped &gt;&lt;

roddy
14-06-2007, 01:06 PM
Hi Dazza, a couple of doji and a shooting star,not sure which away its going at present,after yesterdays close,already seen 50 pip
cheers roddy

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/6517/audvd2.jpg

dumbass
25-08-2007, 02:18 PM
i have a small long on this pattern which looks like its gaining momentum, test and bounce

on 200 ema key retracement at 84.20 which if taken out may possibly indicate full recovery.

thanks a lot pete , looks much better , the only problem is when i view the image its a bit

fuzzy until you resize it.

peat
25-08-2007, 04:16 PM
yeh I have a +100 AUDJPY in demo here... chikou span crossover and ichimoku cloud support kicking in here
undecided target or stop tho, so a bit of an unstructured trade tho something suitable might say break even and then trail using the lower edge of the cloud.

With Aud and Kiwi and Dow up I guess risk is ok again until some more bad news at least.

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/943/audjpyhourly25082007mo6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

dumbass
27-08-2007, 07:12 PM
hi peat , just going back to that aussie long , this bearish ascending wedge is developing on the dailys which i will use as a stop and reverse if breaks , that 20, day sma capped the previous rally so it may give a bit if help.

dumbass
30-08-2007, 06:44 PM
well knock me senseless with a cocktail sausage sometimes this **** works , 20 day sma capped rally , ascending wedge breakout , i have faded in to this one full position on , stop loss just a pip or two above sma , 80 pips at present but trying not to shag it up with a tight stop for a big move . please tell me to put me crack pipe away and stop being silly , any comments appreciated

dumbass
30-08-2007, 06:46 PM
oh my god its so big and beautiful i dont know how i did that peat.

roddy
31-08-2007, 08:37 AM
Hi Db

good trading and picking!

cheers roddy

dumbass
31-08-2007, 09:12 AM
thanks roddy , it would be good to meet you at the do if your knocking around

roddy
31-08-2007, 09:36 AM
Hi DB
i am an out of towner but will keep an eye on proceedings,might catch a ride in Xerofs
porshe

cheers
roddy

dumbass
31-08-2007, 10:18 AM
dont be silly roddy he'll be using the learjet

dumbass
05-09-2007, 04:07 PM
still hoping with this one even though trying my patience

ascending wedge with divergence on rsi on hourlies ????? south bound move

arco
05-09-2007, 06:17 PM
DA

Depends on your time-frame, but medium term looks higher IMO.

rgds -arco

dumbass
05-09-2007, 06:48 PM
hi arco , i must admit not being to comfortable trading against your opinion , any chance of a chart ive got a bit riding on this one

arco
05-09-2007, 07:43 PM
DA

I'm not trading the Aussie at the moment, but these are my thoughts
and chart.

There is always a possibility of southbound print or course, but
the Red butterfly has only touched the first target, so perhaps it can
go further in the medium term.

I'm no EW expert and although I have marked some counts, the wave positioning
is inconclusive in my opinion. Its also worth noting the oscillator which may be supportive
off the centre line.

rgds - arco

arco
20-09-2007, 02:22 PM
320 pip move higher since the chart for anyone who jumped aboard.

Currently some Gann intermediate resistance overhead to conquer.

GTA - arco

arco
25-09-2007, 02:32 PM
Action is now just sitting over the Gann intermediate resistance with the print hovering in a potential Gartley reversal zone. Watching for a possible reversal pattern to appear in the short term.

GTA - arco

peat
25-09-2007, 05:50 PM
the winged creature looks a bit mis-shapen perhaps?
nice doji star tho.

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/4310/audusddaily25092007jv7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This pattern is occurring on NZD as well. Better proportions I thought. but the Aud has reached the full 786 level (and more)

arco
25-09-2007, 07:05 PM
Peat

Reuters data is slightly different to Oanda, and in this case it prints a more uniform shape.
Reuters EOD is around 8am NZT and Oanda 4pm NZT, so there can be slight variations in the look of the pattern.

rgds - arco

arco
26-09-2007, 01:09 PM
The old red Butterfly is still flying north.

Intermediate Gann had minimal EOD effect so we look to Major Gann to
provide a concrete wall of resistance.

He's dug in a little way above yet, so its watching and waiting time.

dumbass
26-09-2007, 06:48 PM
hard to get too excited , a bat, but not much sign of usd strength across the board

close to new high

dumbass
26-09-2007, 08:31 PM
this could turn into an example of carneys rsi bamm


look for a complex m reversal patern in overbought

when rsi crosses 70 line on way down , note price bar ( trigger price )

must retest below 50

enters overbought again but must reverse with a simple spike

sell at trigger point

really would be a better set up if was a alternate bat where d point is above x point eg 113
and then may get a divergence of price to rsi

arco
27-09-2007, 07:09 AM
DB

How about you start up a new thread on BAMM and we will see if we can
find any examples to work on?

In my personal opinion after reading about Carneys BAMM it is very similar
to Alexander Elders divergence rules in 'Trading for a Living'. P144/165.
Elder goes a step further and tells you actual trading rules.

Aussie. Yes, we just have to wait patiently. If we consider the XA leg
from 9/8 this potential Gartley could actually become a BF.

If anyone is still hanging in with the Red Butterfly trade.....keep following
up with a trailing stop.

I notice Tricom were advising a long trade on Aussie yesterday...... (bit late in the day!!!).

dumbass
02-10-2007, 08:20 PM
this alternate bat set up progressing nicely , divergence printing on rsi assuming nothing

changes overnight

carney recommends short entry 87.04 at trigger point,

arco
02-10-2007, 10:22 PM
HI DB/All

How does Carney define his 'trigger point' ?


Current action is testing the double top area - change of polarity principle.
We must also bear in mind the old red BF is still basically in play, and always has the potential to run further into the 1128-1618 area. (or maybe to 1272 if 'X' = 8/8. (1618). QStick is in divergence now.

10.05 before I get the EOD, so lets see what the daily candle offers.

rgds - arco

dumbass
03-10-2007, 11:09 AM
trigger point for trade

rsi prints complex m retracement associated with A point , rsi breaks out of overbought (70) THIS IS TRIGGER CANDLESTICK

this is entry for short , the only thing i may have stuffed up is if you take the high or low of this candlestick

logic would seem to say from this trade that the high of the candlestick would give a more relevant entry , however i marked on low of this candlestick
i will get his book out and check

clear as mud...... excellent

roddy
03-10-2007, 01:24 PM
Hi DB

What period rsi and does it need to break 50 level before entering trade!

cheers roddy

dumbass
03-10-2007, 01:45 PM
hi rod

default rsi settings

the short trade is on when trigger point price reached rather than level of rsi

i will post full chart tonight to make it a bit clearer

arco
06-10-2007, 07:01 AM
Trade still in play.

The old red Butterfly has flown a little further north into the Red Target Zone.

This has been a very good trade, and technically still has potential to move around further in the zone.

Carneys RSI Bamm has failed this time?????? DB?

rgds - arco

arco
10-10-2007, 04:34 PM
Maybe this will confirm the BF completion in the PRZ

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time)
Australian Employment Change

Expected to come out at 20,000 versus 32,000 last month.

From DailyFX.
Australia – Upcoming event risk in Australia will be dominated by the Employment Change report due Thursday, while earlier second-tier data likewise shows potential to force short-term volatility, including the NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence figures. Meanwhile, Home Loans will draw close attention given a background of financial and lending market duress. Forecasts show expectations for strong results across the board, but markets will be keeping an eye on consensus estimates of a 20.0k Employment Change through the month of September. As Currency Analyst David Rodriguez pointed out recently, “To put this into grossly oversimplified perspective, a gain in 20,000 jobs would represent the equivalent of a +284,000 jobs result for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.” Thus, it is very clear how domestic demand in Australia has kept expansion so resilient in the face of slowing global economic growth trends.

............................All we need is a big black candle.

http://www.fxwords.com/e/employment-change-australia.html

arco
11-10-2007, 11:12 AM
PF chart

Spot the Butterfly - PRZ

arco
11-10-2007, 01:55 PM
DATA SNAP: Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.2%

Thu, Oct 11 2007, 01:33 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

DATA SNAP: Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.2%

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's unemployment rate fell to a lower-than-expected seasonally adjusted 4.2% in September from 4.3% in August. The number of employed rose 13,000, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 4.3% in September, with the number of employed up 20,000.

The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, fell to 65.0% in September from 65.1% in August.

The bureau's trend estimate for unemployment, which further smoothes the seasonally adjusted data, was 4.2% in September, steady with August.

The total number of people employed was 10.53 million in September in seasonally adjusted terms, compared with 10.51 million in August.

The number of people in full-time work fell 17,200 to 7.52 million in September, from 7.54 million in August, while the number of people in part-time work rose 30,100 to 3.01 million from 2.98 million.

dumbass
26-10-2007, 06:32 AM
currently in 5th wave with a target around 9130 - 9150

also prz on butterfly at same point

arco
26-10-2007, 01:36 PM
Hi DB/All

The old red BF is still appears to be winging its way north,
therefore 9200+ is not out of the question IMO.

arco

dumbass
09-11-2007, 07:00 PM
looking to go long again on this crab

break of 94 possibly for target 9520 then 96+

peat
16-11-2007, 08:58 PM
I wrote this post about 7 hours ago - 2:30 PMish and the chart will probably support that. I thought I posted it then but it seems not, so I will just retype for the sake of posterity ;+)

Re NZD I've had a bit of difficulty seeing a long there , and had been shorting it overnite with some success , but now looking at the OZZIe has opened my eyes to how I can agree with you both Arco and DA re so I neutralised my short positions and have started laying in small longs on both AUD and NZD . Although they are similar it seems to me the Ozzie pattern was more correctly played out.

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/3295/audusd30min16112007mediby7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
And now (back in real time ) its looking good the limit buy order was filled right at the .78 retracement and average position is +30 for oz +15 for NZ


Interestingly Max is against us tonite saying that kiwi and oz will find resistance at around their current levels i.e .76 and .89 and then head substantially south.
Time will tell as it always does.

Real account trading is getting closer. I verified my PayPal account and should now be allowed to transfer to Oanda from there. Have done so - lets see if it doesnt get rejected this time.

arco
16-11-2007, 10:38 PM
Peat

I think the technical position on Aussie and Kiwi is quite complex
presently, so anything is possible. If AUD 9140 was achievable it
would present another potentially profitable Gartley situation.

Looking at Ichi...............
Aussie is supported by the thick Kumo which could add some lift in
the short/medium term. However, there is always a possibility the
action may eventually venture part way into the cloud to complete
a corrective sequence.

On the 4 hour there seems to be 3 waves down completing just
below 2618 (although this is not obvious on the daily).

Chikou has tentatively entered the plot but no cross yet on Kijun/Tenkan,
although the red Kijun line could act as resistance

dumbass
16-11-2007, 11:02 PM
my ew suggest low risk long as wave 2 completes critical level to set stop 8754

peat
19-11-2007, 12:10 PM
just for the record my Oz longs closed themselves this morning as I had failed to reset the default 100 take profit setting. I need to be more ambitious!! still it was a nice trade getting the biggest buy in at only 9 pips above the low.


and btw.... I am now able to trade via fxtrade. ooh the nerves will start to fire a bit now !
And although I think the kiwi/oz long scenario still has some go I wont be entering the kiwi long in real a/c as the best risk/reward ratio has passed and I must be extra disciplined now

peat
20-11-2007, 11:46 AM
hmmm
back into the D zone now.... and hit a lower low than before. tho currently bouncing a little.

Does this mean the gartley has failed? - technically not till it crosses X) but certainly coming back into what Carney might call the PPZ (profit protection zone).
Could be just the 'back to test' thing goin on tho.

arco
20-11-2007, 12:31 PM
Peat

There are harmonic patterns in several timeframes - which TF are you
working on?

rgds - arco

peat
20-11-2007, 12:57 PM
I'm looking at the patterns since Nov 13th as per this picture
I have lined the new pattern tho it doesnt assist my understanding.
The RSI is now more oversold than it was before at this level tho so this makes me tend to think it would bounce from here again but dont choose to risk 70 pips - if an uptrend develops from here I'm hoping it might be large enough to miss a portion of it. i.e let it confirm.
http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/1098/audusd30min20112007ka3.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

arco
20-11-2007, 01:44 PM
Peat

I wonder if its heading lower to create a BF

peat
20-11-2007, 02:24 PM
Yeh thats the one
Some heavy red 30 min candles now
This is the reason why the PPZ is so important imo.