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Halebop
26-03-2005, 07:12 PM
For Winner69, a reward for ramping Colorado on an MHI thread! :D[:p]

I've only had cursory looks at Colorado before now and was more familiar with one of their predecessors Mathers, even shopped for shoes there as a child and teenager in Queensland, a long time Mathers stronghold. More recently Mathers struggled and were privatised. Colorado is the new public incarnation of Mathers, Williams, Colorado Adventurewear and a couple of recent acquisitions.

Business Tenets:

Is the business simple and understandable?
Yes. They sell low to mid range footwear and "adventurewear" through retail stores and have recently added a higher end shoe brand plus the struggling JAG label of clothing.

Does the business have a consistent operating history?
Colorado Group does not have enough history as a company although Mathers had a long and relatively successful public company history of shoe retailing until declining economies began to impact. JAG is a puppy that might grow into a dog and has a history of poor performance. The size of this business is relatively small so hopefully any negative impact would be relatively small. I'd predict this business will eventually be sold. So a “Yes” but I'm uncertain of the counter-cyclical performance of these businesses.

Favourable Long term prospects?
Shoe retailing is unlikely to materially change and so this business has a future although growth has been and is modest. Adventureware is probably more of a demographic play but I don't have a strong view on where its heading. Even with the acquisitions of JAG and the Ferrari shoe business sales have increased just a little under 8% compounding per annum since 2000. Not bad, but not completely inspiring either. I do not view JAGs prospects favourably at all – it is a turnaround and too often they don't work. Luckily this is a small part of the business. Modest Yes.

Management Tenets

Is Management Rational

Management have clearly arrested any decline in the shoe business and put it on a sounder “footing” (Sorry, pun intended). Their two acquisitions have been modest although I suspect JAG is outside anyone's competence to restore. The Colorado namesake seems a reasonable story as well. They have used a strong trading environment to continue an affordable organic expansion program and progressively reduced debt and increased cash balances. Yes.

Is Management candid with shareholders

I don't know. Yes in the absence of any obvious porkies. CDO do perform one of my pet dislikes where they report “CAPEX” somewhere near the front page but when you delve into the cash flow numbers purchases of fixed assets far exceed this amount. Well – Capital Expenditure is just that – Capital Expended. I think management take a poetic license. Stick with Yes but don't trust their reported Capex numbers!

Does management resist the institutional imperative?

Their cash balances are probably a good $30m or more than where they need to be. Absence of any major acquisitions leans me towards the notion they can avoid the institutional imperative. I'll say Yes but qualify it with the following:

Why have a DRIP when you don't need the cash?
The company has issued 6m new shares via options and the DRIP since floating but has not had a pressing need for cash. This goes against the grain of creating value.

Financial Tenets:

Return on Equity

ROE calculated NPAT on start of year shareholders funds...

2000 29.48%
2001 27.18%
2002 27.98%
2003 31.40%
2004 33.09%
2005 36.95%

Note: These numbers are more Return on Net Tangible Assets than equity as I ignore goodwill in my calculations.

The trend has progressively improved from a high base while reducing leverage. This has been a very strong result. One sign of caution is the remarkable reduction in Cost of Good Sold despite higher sales. It is not clear how this was achieved – via supply chain / purchasing efficiencies or the strength of the dollar. This may represe

winner69
26-03-2005, 08:40 PM
Good one halebop - busy Easter Saturday

Thought you might be impressed with the numbers

Is tough to say where they will go over the next year. The boss says NPAT up 10% even after some increased costs being accounted for.

CDO are investing pretty heavy in sales staff (esp training) and putting together some pretty robust chain stuff. This no doubt has contributed something to that margin enhancement but more importantly to having a satisified customer.

They did say that some margin growth came from the strong $AUD ... but I really liked the statement that most of the benefits of arising from anything over US$0.72 is to be reinvested in
customer initiatives

That is a good approach

CDo certainly fits above the value line on my EVA spread / Business Value thingie I run for long term investments

James K
29-03-2005, 11:16 AM
Neat to see such a great post on CDO, Halebop. Thanks. I'm a LT holder of CDO - got in just after the float, and have never been tempted to sell. Been an outstanding performer. One thing that doesn't come thru your post is theie cash position. From memory they have $50m in cash on the balance sheet. They've also said they won't pay too much for acquisitions, and have spent the past 12-18 months investing in new systems etc, so they are better prepared for their next acquisition. They have said they did not really have the infrastructure sufficiently robust for the 2 prior acquisitions and this was part of the reason for the troubles they had integrating these. With an apparent downturn in retailing looks like their timing may be just right.

They've always given conservative guidance in the past (I think last year they may have said 15% growth, and delivered 40%+).

EDIT: typos

Capitalist
29-03-2005, 03:41 PM
I don't usually invest in retail, but thanks Halebop and Winner. I'm going to buy some.Bejus - I spend enough in their Botany store- time for payback I think ;)

Halebop
29-03-2005, 04:34 PM
So am I the only one on this thread who doesn't own then? I see the trusty "Halebop Seal of Approval" (tm) has sent it down 1.5% today. [B)]

With prices now a fair chunk lower than their December highs I wonder if they could be a candidate for tax loss selling approaching June? The trend is not clear although it is sticking to a tentative uptrend commenced in February.

I'll obey my own counsel for the moment and sit on the sidelines.

winner69
30-03-2005, 07:34 PM
On a down day overall at least CDO found some favour

SEC
30-03-2005, 08:00 PM
Interesting research Halebop.

I looked at buying CDO late last year but two things made me hesitate:
1. The softness of the retail sector, but more importantly:
2. Solomon Lew sold his entire 21% stake in October.

Solly Lew is one of the richest men in Australia. His exit off the CDO register suggests he has better places to invest his money and that upside in CDO is limited in the short-medium term.

SEC

Halebop
30-03-2005, 09:20 PM
Someone once said to me "Never judge your insides by someones elses outsides"... meaning never let your intimate knowledge of your specific circumstances be swayed by your frugal knowledge of someone elses affairs, as you base this only on how it looks, and not how it is.

Solomon Lew has made some appalling investments over the years so he is just as likely to screw up as the next guy. As Buffett showed us with Coca Cola in the early 90s, strong past performance is not a reason to avoid a company.

If only RBD holders learned that weak past performance is not a guarantee of better things to come!

SEC
30-03-2005, 09:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Solomon Lew has made some appalling investments over the years so he is just as likely to screw up as the next guy.

If true then how come he's a billionaire and the next guy isn't?

Halebop
30-03-2005, 11:01 PM
Because maybe the guy next door didn't inherit Peter Lew's multi-million dollar business.

Of course, investments like Coles Myer and Country Road have been inspired.

Lizard
31-03-2005, 09:22 PM
Bought into CDO last year. Solid history, solid value. Put it in the very-long-term portfolio as a stock I plan to sit on indefinitely. Expecting steady growth rather than excitement.

So RBD holders and CDO holders are not mutually exclusive [8D]

SEC
01-04-2005, 08:22 PM
Halebop, however much you may disparage Solomon Lew the fact is that he was a CDO cornerstone shareholder and insider, and he divested his entire holding. The question has to be asked: why did he sell? My attempt at an answer is that he reckoned CDO's price has peaked and he saw better returns elsewhere. Six months later the price has gone nowhere and his desicion looks vindicated so far.

SEC

Halebop
01-04-2005, 11:56 PM
Fair enough SEC. I wonder though if another uptrend has commenced despite the nervous environment right now. I'm happy to wait a while myself.

P.S. No, I'm not a fan of Mr Lew.

winner69
13-04-2005, 07:52 PM
price ben a bit week lately but take solace from this I came across recently

Altman-z Scores are a measure of a company's health (and often used as a solvency test). High scores good and low scores bad

In Australia an analyst has looked at the correlation between these scores and ztock performance. The strongest correlation was found when these scores were at the extreme - and that company's with high scores outperformed the market.

CDO was one of those company's - an Altman-z score that was one of the highest ... and as such is likely to outperform the market

Boring stuff eh ... but a good sign

SEC
26-04-2005, 06:28 PM
Looking at the chart, Solomon Lew timed his stock disposal to perfection.

Current sentiment is particularly poor for retail stocks, and CDO looks to be no exception.

A key 500 support line is looming. I don't think it'll hold.

SEC

winner69
26-04-2005, 07:19 PM
Agree ... looking a bit sick eh mate

The Aust consumer must be down and out ... is Australia that stuffed ... I thought John was on top of things, yeah right

SEC
26-04-2005, 07:44 PM
No Australia is not stuffed but don't count on much growth in the retail sector for a while. Unfortunately many retailers were priced as growth stocks and this premium is being unwound - very quickly.

winner69
17-05-2005, 08:14 PM
... and still being unwound by the looks of it

Just Group say the warmer weather has stuffed them and down goes CDO with it some more. Both now below 10 times earnings

Going to be some real value in these retail stocks one day

Halebop
17-05-2005, 10:40 PM
Certainly keeping my eye on them. May is bound to be a bad month anyway with tax loss selling on top of sentiment. I think the value is there now - just missing the sentiment/trend.

wns
25-05-2005, 02:54 PM
I enjoyed your opening post Halebop.

Their average PE over the last five years has been just under 10, which is pretty much what they are trading at now. So on that particular measure they seem fair value at current prices, and not exactly a bargain.

I haven't looked into them closely but at first glance over their historical financials they look quite good. Good consistent growth in revenue, NPAT (both in $ and % margin), consistently high ROE and ROC, strong balance sheet. Currently a nice dividend yield too.

I'll throw a couple of questions out there for those who know more about CDO (or for those who are looking at investing in CDO to have a think about). What is their growth strategy and how feasible/achievable is it? How many new stores do they plan to open and over what time frame? Is there scope for them to open many more stores or is it nearing saturation? How has their sales and profit growth been like for existing stores (like for like)?

I would be looking for them to:
- continue to increase revenue and profits ($ and %) from existing
stores
- have ample scope to continue to open new stores
- and to have the ability to fund that growth out of retained
earnings and not debt.

Halebop
25-05-2005, 04:38 PM
Hi WNS,

Colorado have an organic growth strategy for Colorado and Williams, their annual report estimating new store number of 10 and 8 respectively for the current year (from a base of 93 and 168 respectively). Mathers are profitable but still appear to be in turnaround mode. Earnings are expected to increase on lower store number. 6 Were closed last year, reducing stores to 107. The outlook this year is stable but I suspect some more closures may be in the offing. Although Mathers present no obvious systemic risk its a salutory lesson on avoiding turnarounds. They've been in "turnaround" mode for 5 years now...

JAG works at both wholesale and retail levels but investment in design and sales/distribution are expected to pay dividends. They have 29 stores but no mention of store growth is made. Reading between the lines a revamp of the store offer may be in the pipeline. I'm luke warm on the concept but not through any special insight or reason. Turnarounds seldom turn and tend take a long time when they do (like Mathers...)

Diana Ferrari has enjoyed both better wholesale distribution numbers and growth through concept stores. 5 new stores are planed for the year from a base of 10.

Growth in the core Colorado and Shoe business is probably modest in scope although this is the sort of business I prefer. The company probably needs a substantial acquisition, a major ramp up in one of its minor brands or expansion into a new country to qualify for a sexy PE multiple. With all of these of course comes execution risk which markets don't really like.

Dazza
25-05-2005, 04:55 PM
ah capitalist i see ur a shopper at botany eh :D

come to life pharmacy and pay me a visit :D

nice post halebop, if i wasnt mistaken that break down was straight from warren buffet?

let me guess uve read the warren buffet way :D

Halebop
25-05-2005, 06:07 PM
Once or twice ;)

wns
26-05-2005, 11:38 AM
Thanks Halebop,

OK, so the picture I'm getting is that overall the expected rate of profit growth is probably modest, in the absence of any major moves or acquisitions.

Since CDO are trading at close to its historical average PE of 9-10x, your expected return buying at current prices is going to be similar to: dividend yield (about 5.7% or so?) + the rate of EPS growth (6-10%????) = 12-16% +/- a bit, which is OK but not very exciting (this is without factoring in a PE re-rating, which of course is a possibility, but I wouldn't count on it). Even though it is a good solid company, has investment merit and will probably continue to grow steadily, I personally would be looking for it to be undervalued (eg. a PE of 6 or 7x) to compensate for the fairly low growth rate.

Halebop
26-05-2005, 11:50 AM
I think they'll do at least +10% growth over the medium term, mostly subject to the risk of currency translations on margins. They are currently trading at around 1/3 to 1/2 my DCF valuation based on 10% growth. This looks pretty good value especially considering their highish dividend and risk mitigating cash holdings.

Chart wise they are still the ugly duckling so I'm happy to sit out and await stronger technicals.

Disc: None held.

wns
26-05-2005, 12:26 PM
10%+ growth is certainly possible I guess if they continue to earn ROE of 26-28% and retain half of it, as they have for the last five years or so.

Halebop
27-05-2005, 11:41 AM
Just reading the AGM Announcements... Q1 fell short of budget but represents minor proportion of annual earnings (10%). Reiterated 10% earnings growth for the year but also expressed they were unlikely to outperform this target.

30 New Stores planned for the year plus 100 store refurbishments. Completion of the RETEK IT project has allowed them to move on to Supply Chain and Inventory Management improvements. No acquisitions identified as yet but stated they are still looking for a home for their cash - also hinting at a possible special dividend.

With May almost finished perhaps the tax loss selling has too? Technicals still aren't quite there for me despite improvement from their $4.37 lows...

SEC
15-06-2005, 04:58 PM
Here was me thinking this morning CDO was looking cheap at 450 after reiterating profit guidance a few weeks ago yet gone nowhere while all the other retailers have recovered 10+% from lows.

All of a sudden there are 80 buyers at 450.

Could only be one thing - a Rivkin buy recommendation.

The Rivkin Report has a patchy record but I have to agree with it this time.

SEC

SEC
16-06-2005, 06:01 PM
Well the Rivkin recommendation has put a rocket under CDO! Big volumes gone through today.

SEC

winner69
16-06-2005, 06:32 PM
and up to 477 today ... thats 10% this week

SEC
16-06-2005, 07:45 PM
Halebop you alluded to the negatives of the Rivkin influence on the Investment forum. I wouldn't worry too much about it, as an analyst they have very little influence on the instos. It's just amusing to see the moms pops and grannies all put their little bids exactly on the buy price in the Rivkin Tipsheet then watch as the price gets away from them. If nothing else it puts a floor price of 450 on CDO. Short term target is 550, preferably before August (the start of the reporting season). I know CDO doesn't report until September, but market sentiment based on the other retailers' results will prevail.

SEC

Halebop
16-06-2005, 07:53 PM
Personally I'm a bit annoyed because I think they could have drifted lower. Ce la vie! Bought a small number today and will buy more if the trend sticks.

SEC
16-06-2005, 08:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Personally I'm a bit annoyed because I think they could have drifted lower. Ce la vie! Bought a small number today and will buy more if the trend sticks.


Halebop, the TA would argue otherwise. There was plenty of volume going through around the 450 mark this past month and a 3 month steep downtrend was broken on Monday (Rivkin insiders buying[?][}:)]).

SEC

Halebop
16-06-2005, 08:11 PM
For me it didn't send a buy signal until close of business Wednesday. So I bought today.

Wonder if it was Rivken insiders buying? A bit naughty really.

SEC
16-06-2005, 08:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Wonder if it was Rivken insiders buying? A bit naughty really.


But not surprising. It's a dirty little secret that many brokers buy/sell stock for/from the house account before making public a sell/buy recommendation. Except Rivkin has been more blatant and caught out.

SEC

Dazza
18-06-2005, 10:47 AM
does CDO have a DRIP?
and whats their divi ratio?
*dun care about franking credits -> NZLER*

Halebop
18-06-2005, 11:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

does CDO have a DRIP?
and whats their divi ratio?
*dun care about franking credits -> NZLER*


Yes they do. It's actually my biggest gripe. They just don't need the money and with shares trading at a discount NPV this dilutes existing shareholders. They have issued about 1.2m shares under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan in the last 2 years.

EPS last year was about 48.6 cents and a franked (Australia) divdend of 24 cents was paid. To an Australian investor this is a gross yield of around 9.2%. To a Kiwi its still a reasonably fat 6.5%. If they hit earnings targets this year (1st half will be a bit soft) I'd pick a 27 cent dividend (10.1% Ozzie yield, 7.2% Kiwi).

Good Income, steady growth prospects, sharp discount to intrinsic value, surplus cash for acquisitions. A nice opportunity to accumulate. I'm still a bit nervous that the Rivken Report might have generated a "false" technical buy but thems the rules and I've starting accumulating.

Dazza
18-06-2005, 01:38 PM
mmm nice to see that they have a dividend reinvestment scheme

i will put this on my watchlist

have to sell my PBG at a reasonable loss soon ><

stephen
18-06-2005, 02:21 PM
Is here where I mention that lacking Halebop's commendable caution, I bought some at 5.45 a few weeks back? Keep buying, guys ;)

Halebop
18-06-2005, 03:25 PM
Well Stephen when (and if) the uptrend manages to stick I'll still be a willing buyer at that price. Conversely if it breaks I won't spend much time or emotion deciding to sell either.

For the 13% difference you could have enjoyed though its well worth checking out some of Phaedrus' trendline analysis! While not fail-safe by any means TA provides useful insight to timing. FAs (like me) get all caught up in the "whys?". Even now I'm saying "But Rivken is a bunch of bollocks and their buying will dry up and that trendline will mean nothing". But I made myself start buying anyway because we never really "know" the reason a share price moves from one point to the next.

stephen
18-06-2005, 03:31 PM
Halebop, I am coming around to that view myself. Which is why I bought CCP late last week, having eyed it for some time.

18-06-2005, 04:49 PM
Halebop has the Rivkin report got much following now that Rivkin is dead. The share price makes it look like a dog.

Halebop
24-06-2005, 03:26 PM
Hrumph! CDO now trading below my average buy. I've got my stop set kind of tight because the naysayer in me still thinks they might test $4.00. Not much positive news on the retail / domestic front which ultimately should be good news for contrary types.

mark100
24-06-2005, 03:55 PM
Still plenty of rivkin followers at 4.50. 259 of them! and then another 39 at 4.51.

Halebop
24-06-2005, 04:04 PM
Well, it's not set that tight.

arco
27-06-2005, 02:29 PM
Hello Halebop

Very interested to read the FA and your
reasoning for the purchase of CDO.

From a TA perspective the current action
is in the vicinity of the target Elliott
Wave Zig-Zag ABC reversal area denoted on
the chart. Additionally a Gann support level
situated at $4.30 was one good scale in
+/- entry point level for bottom pickers.

There also appears to be the possibility of an
Sm Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern developing
which would add a bullish flavor once the
neckline is breached.


http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/cdo_06242005.gif

arco

Halebop
27-06-2005, 02:41 PM
Thanks Arco. Nice to get a TA input (even if I only understand half of it!). I watched it closely this morning and was picking the mid $4.50s was today's low point. Haven't quite mustered the guts to hit the buy button again as of yet.

Halebop
20-07-2005, 12:31 PM
Strange I seem to temporarily find myself in profit. (I think this is the chorus from the country and western sharemarket song "Range Bound").

Any TA's care to comment? My chart is beginning to look good again but then I thought it did a month ago as well.

limegreen
20-07-2005, 01:59 PM
From a medium-long perspective I'd be a little cautious. But then I keep thinking I'm being "cautious" and then later thinking it was more lacking faith in my own (not particularly strong) abilities. The end of an OBV downtrend has triggered one good buy, but also what would have been a short-lived holding earlier this year. The steep downtrend has ended, but there is no new uptrend yet. Moving averages will always make one late for the party, and indeed, the 180EMA here doesn't indicate a party yet ...
The window at around $4.30 has provided a good long term level of suppport.

DISC: curious

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/cdo20july05.gif

PS: Halebop, I've sent you an email to your less-checked account.

Halebop
20-07-2005, 02:19 PM
Doh! Cheers LG. Not at home at the moment. Will sort this evening.

limegreen
20-07-2005, 02:25 PM
No hurry at all :)

stephen
22-07-2005, 04:59 PM
Looking quite promising now, yes?

(hold CDO, bought somewhere north of here :( )

robbo
22-07-2005, 06:07 PM
Colarado:

On The premise that the "Trend Is Meant To be Your Friend"

----and that Domestic Spending Sentiment is Down on some recent Retail Sentiment Surveys..

--and noting that Barclays Fund Mger Groups, have had two ASX Announcments, today, and day before Yesterday as well announcing their further Dilution of Colorado.....

One might proceed with some Caution......(although I do note Halebops Long Term assessment on CDO as being truly excellent, basing his analysisi on the five plus year consitent increasing earnings, year on year ROE increase, dividends and current relative low level PE etc etc....So yep, on The Fundamentals and being Contrarian, now would//could .... be a Good Buy CDO Point to buy on "The Dips" --if one takes a view of where Retail Sentiment might be 6-9-12-18 months out from now.....

-For me, I think having more of a Equity Investment Exposure to The Global Demand for Energy and Base Metals might be stil the way to Go....(some of the very very Strong Profit/Earnings numbers trickling in now, for Rinker, Oil Search, BHP, RIO, CSM, Illuka,Zinifex,Mt Gibson, Macarthur Coal, New hope, and Excel Coal, Tap Oil, Beach Petroleum, and the increasing Volumes going thru the Uranium Plays.....(SMM, PDN, MTN, SIM,, DYL)..... Do also mount quite a strong argument.....)

Just some thoughts...

Regards Stephen and everyone...,

Robbo:)

limegreen
22-07-2005, 06:12 PM
today = uptrend :)

Halebop
22-07-2005, 07:43 PM
LG looking good.

Davidrob I also agree that energy/metals/materials still looking good for the medium term. I still like GCL but they are stubbornly resisting my private prediction that they might go as low as $2.70. They seem happy to drift around so I'm happy to have exited at $3.30ish some time ago. Looking for a looming entry point. Perhaps close to the end of the year...

Domestically Australia isn't as weak or gloomy as journalists from Sydney paint. NSW reads like the weakest link in an otherwise fairly robust story. Quality companies will continue to perform and perceptions of weakness may allow for cheapish acquisitions. Feeling comfortable about CDO exposure and will probably add to holding with the trend today looking firmer. Had a fair chunk of cash briefly tied up in the States which I've now returned to Oz. Looking at moving some CDO's way...

tracker
25-07-2005, 07:33 AM
hmmmmmmmmmmm
was looking real hard at 460 but had sheet loads tied up(at least for me) in ppx, now cleared I might go fishing over there BUT like it when I get my mark lol

time will tell
looks good tho

trade well
stops always

tracker

Halebop
28-07-2005, 03:59 PM
An ugly'ish day for CDO. Down 10 to 476 at time of posting.

By my reckoning the tentative uptrend line currently intersects at about $4.70. Will see if support kicks in and bounces it on or before this level...

limegreen
29-07-2005, 09:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

An ugly'ish day for CDO. Down 10 to 476 at time of posting.

By my reckoning the tentative uptrend line currently intersects at about $4.70. Will see if support kicks in and bounces it on or before this level...


Williams %R has provided some fairly good entry points into CDO when it is trending up, so I'm patiently waiting for it to get oversold (it's close). Agree on hopeful trend confirmation at $4.70...

Halebop
02-08-2005, 11:01 PM
Confirmation seems good so far, touched on $5.00 today and closed up 12 to 496. Fairly stiff resistance at it closes towards $5 though. Might need some news to emphatically push it over.

Halebop
05-08-2005, 12:41 PM
Well the news came but it wasn't quite the "push" I was looking for. Down as far as $4.51. Currently somewhere in the low $4.70's, maybe 5 or more cents below the uptrend line.

stephen
05-08-2005, 01:52 PM
Bugger.

Halebop
05-08-2005, 01:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by stephen

Bugger.


:D

Indeed!

[B)]

limegreen
05-08-2005, 04:49 PM
Still seem on target for a close over the obvious support level at $4.56. Those with twitchier trigger fingers will no doubt be out or exiting, but it seems like the SP could be more heading sideways than down. The OBV uptrend is still intact, although another day or two of down volume could see that broken...

tracker
05-08-2005, 05:38 PM
hey lg
glad i stuck by principle that my mark is my mark, it costs me lots BUT also saves, sorry about the price, but where are u seeing 456 as support, maybe my chart is wrong or something , just having trouble seeing it,
made for good trading tho

stops as always
tracker

limegreen
05-08-2005, 07:33 PM
Tracker, I'm also sticking by my mark. I see support (the horizontal green line) under those a couple of low points around $4.56, which is where I set my initial stop on entry. If I had a larger holding, I would have sold half today. I'm happy with where my stop is, and will see what happens on Monday. I may choose to revise it up and sell then. Being of a slightly more long term persuasion, the current price action could form a new low for a shallower uptrend.
LG

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/cdo5aug05.gif

robbo
06-08-2005, 03:04 PM
Colarado (CDO)

Profit Down Grade (Share Price drops down 6.9& on Friday.)

My thought/predictions re. CDO ... on 22/7/05 -- turned out; this time, to have had, in "Harry Hindsight" just a little Merit ! :)

Regards,

Robbo :)[?]

Have posted the CDO ASX Profit Down Grade-- on bottom of this post.... for those who are interested:


quote:Originally posted by davidrob on 22/7/05

Colorado: (CDO)

Date: 22/7/05
On The premise that the "Trend Is Meant To be Your Friend" ...

----and that Domestic Spending Sentiment is Down on some recent Retail Sentiment Surveys..

--and noting that Barclays Fund Mger Groups, have had two ASX Announcments, today, and day before Yesterday as well announcing their further Dilution of Colorado.....

One might proceed with some Caution......(although I do note Halebops Long Term assessment on CDO as being truly excellent, basing his analysisi on the five plus year consitent increasing earnings, year on year ROE increase, dividends and current relative low level PE etc etc....So yep, on The Fundamentals and being Contrarian, now would//could .... be a Good Buy CDO Point to buy on "The Dips" --if one takes a view of where Retail Sentiment might be 6-9-12-18 months out from now.....

-For me, I think having more of a Equity Investment Exposure to The Global Demand for Energy and Base Metals might be stil the way to Go....(some of the very very Strong Profit/Earnings numbers trickling in now, for Rinker, Oil Search, BHP, RIO, CSM, Illuka,Zinifex,Mt Gibson, Macarthur Coal, New hope, and Excel Coal, Tap Oil, Beach Petroleum, and the increasing Volumes going thru the Uranium Plays.....(SMM, PDN, MTN, SIM,, DYL)..... Do also mount quite a strong argument.....)

Just some thoughts...

Regards Stephen and everyone...,

Robbo:)
:)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5 August 2005
ASX/MEDIA RELEASE

COLORADO GROUP TRADING UPDATE

COLORADO group today revised its earnings forecasts for the 2005/6 year as a result of continued softer trading conditions in June and July.

The group’s revised EBIT expectations for the full year ending 28 January 2006, excluding any impact from acquisitions, is for a decline of around 5 percent on the prior year’s adjusted EBIT of
$60 million.
Managing Director Mr Rowan Webb said the record prior year first half results were produced largely as a result of strong trading in the second quarter and a corresponding spike in the
exchange rate.

“This year, the retail environment continued to tighten as the winter season progressed and without the budgetary stimulus and strong consumer sentiment of the prior year, profitable sales growth
was difficult to achieve,” he said.
“Comparable stores sales growth has declined in the low single digit range and overall sales have been flat relative to the prior half year.”

In May COLORADO group advised that first half results would be negatively impacted by IFRS accounting policy changes, the change from retail to cost accounting for inventory, a prior year one
off currency benefit, and some unusual one off costs including legal and due diligence costs.

The group’s revised EBIT expectations for the half year ended 30 July 2005 of between $9 million and $10 million fully reflect these impacts and the weaker second quarter trading conditions and
reflect a shortfall of around $5 million to internal budgets.

Mr Webb said while it had been a disappointing start to the year, a significant percentage of the group’s profit was generated in the second half of the year.

“The group has responded well to the changed trading conditions, having taken action to control costs and ensure we enter the all important

tracker
07-08-2005, 06:17 AM
thanks for the reply lg, interested to see your chart and how u onterpret it. I sorta see what you are saying lets see if i got this right
a)it did break your trend line etc BUT closed above 356.
just interested to see how we can all look at the same chart and sometimes see something diff.
hoping it goes well back above 5 bucks for ya, and again thanks for the reply

tracker

limegreen
07-08-2005, 02:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by tracker
a)it did break your trend line etc BUT closed above 456.

Yes. It's clearly broken the tentative trend-line which has had many of us quite excited. I bought into the stock in the previous dip at around $4.80. On entry, I looked for an obvious level of support to set my initial stop at. A liberal stop would have been around $4.35, which if the price action broke below, would indicate a resumption of a longer-term downtrend. However, the $4.56 line I drew in is around 5% below my entry price, so seemed like not a bad mark. Setting a stop on a short term trendline like the one illustrated would, IMHO, generate more buy and sell signals than I'm after. That said, I may still choose to sell before it hits my stop if the price continues to show too much weakness on Monday/Tuesday.

To best try to capture what I mean, let's look at this chart of MIG. Plotted is one very sound confirmed trendline. For the longer-term investing that I'm interested in, this was not an optimal sell-signal. You can also draw an unconfirmed shallower trendline (not shown) which was also broken, which I'd also argue was not too optimal for me, and can draw another, yet shallower unconfirmed trendline that has not yet been broken.
You might also infer from this chart that my trigger finger is somewhat itchy at the moment.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/mig5aug05.gif

But back to CDO, I set more liberal stops, which means I won't get such timely exit signals, and could stand to loose slightly more money. However, what I don't want to do is to have sold on Friday, only to realise that I was too hasty in a few weeks/months time.

EDIT: It helps if I include the chart.

Halebop
07-08-2005, 02:48 PM
Limegreen: agreed that whatever price action CDO delivers in the longer term, Friday's dip is immaterial.

Despite this I personally was happier to react to the ultra short term signal nothwithstanding the long term uptrend. A 6 month snapshot still indicates a downtrend despite the cheap price and the more recent rise. Herein lies the benefit of following a more conservative technical policy similar to Phaedrus' (like 200 day moving averages - it was getting so close though!). I'll try to bottom fish with the best of them (not counting myself with the best of "them" by any means), but because of this I'll pay attention if the market gives me a speeding ticket too.

SEC
07-08-2005, 03:56 PM
Turned out to be another Rivkin special:(.

Profit downgrade of 15% (from expected 10% increase to 5% decrease) and imminent broker downgrades suggest CDO has more to fall next week. Unless Rivkin followers pile up at 450 on the buy side CDO may well test 430 again.

Limey, re MIG refer to my comments on Macquarie funds on the MAP thread. A buying opportunity beckons.

SEC

limegreen
07-08-2005, 04:23 PM
Cheers for the tip SEC. I've just been trying my hand for the first time at doing some real digging through MIG's numbers, as it certainly does seem like this could be an excellent buying opportunity.

Halebop: Heh. I was actually going to mention that in some respects I bought to early for a conservative trading position. Hopefully I'll actually have the chart there now.

Halebop
08-08-2005, 11:31 AM
Another drop this morning but your support is looking pretty sound at the moment Limegreen. Buyers in numbers at $4.60ish and $4.50.

limegreen
08-08-2005, 12:57 PM
I'm quietly confident that the support will hold. What I'm not confident about is whether the support having held, whether it will start to track higher again. That is, perhaps it will merely trade sideways until there is some positive news. In which case perhaps I should exit. Food for thought I guess.

Halebop
09-08-2005, 03:39 PM
Charts look good for the $4.60ish floor on support LG.

Big Question now is it returning to trend or going somewhere else?

limegreen
09-08-2005, 04:26 PM
I'd been delaying posting on this, although obviously I'm moderately pleased with today's price action. Seeing as my decisions are up for open scrutiny on this, I may as well continue the public debate(!). Effectively there are three possible actions.
It may set a new ($5+) high, in which case I'll be holding. It may peak lower, and then fall lower (=downtrend), in which case I'll sell by $4.56 at the latest. Or, most annoying, it could track sideways for months.
FWIW, CDO represents about 8% of my current share investments, the money previously having been in ANZ, so I'm not too unhappy with the current state of affairs.
Trainspotters might also be interested that I've just dipped my toe in the water with Brambles (BIL) on the basis of a break above resistance at $8.50 (NB -- although I buy close to close, in this case about 6 minutes to, the price dropped below my buy signal 1 minute after my purchase, however, it is back up today). :)

Halebop
09-08-2005, 04:30 PM
I've been watching Brambles too but did not buy. For such a "successful" company their ROA/ROE always seems a bit disappointing. Happy to trade them though.

limegreen
09-08-2005, 05:12 PM
BIL was forming an ascending triangle, so I think I could have had my entry a little more timely (ie, lower) but we shall see how I fare...
I'm not too surprised that you didn't buy. I attempted to crunch their numbers, and it didn't seem like they'd meet your criteria.

limegreen
11-08-2005, 11:17 AM
Pleased to see that the OBV is continuing to trend up. Obviously some see it as good buying at this level...

limegreen
15-09-2005, 12:28 PM
Hasn't been much comment here, but then there has not been much to comment on. However, after trading in a very narrow range for over a month, there has been a little bit of upward movement. With PMN's SSH yesterday, it appears they have been supplying something of a floor into which others have been selling. OBV continues to trend up/sideways rather than down which is somewhat positive. For those holding (ie, me) it's still looking like a "hold" not a "sell", but is by no means a screaming "buy". A close over $5 might be something to get a little excited about.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/cdo15sept05.gif

Lizard
15-09-2005, 01:51 PM
Thanks LG. Been watching with interest the last few days and considering a top-up. But maybe will wait...

Cheers,

limegreen
15-09-2005, 02:49 PM
Last year's half year was on the 23rd of September. Perhaps there is some anticipation of something optimistic there...

Dazza
15-09-2005, 09:12 PM
esp with the retail companies producing good

ie just group, and my fav PBG :p

limegreen
15-09-2005, 10:11 PM
You'll be glad you didn't sell PBG now... progress is looking pretty solid.

tracker
16-09-2005, 05:15 AM
close over 490 chart wise quite significant
looking at entering if , IF it holdds

tracker

limegreen
16-09-2005, 10:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by tracker

hey lg
glad i stuck by principle that my mark is my mark, it costs me lots BUT also saves, sorry about the price, but where are u seeing 456 as support, maybe my chart is wrong or something , just having trouble seeing it,
made for good trading tho

stops as always
tracker


I'm glad that I stuck by my mark (wider than yours, but appropriate for my investment style).

winner69
22-09-2005, 06:19 PM
Announcement only confirmed what people knew but market obviously not too impressed.

Just as well they continue to open heaps of new stores or the outlook would look pretty poor - esp when the presentation mentions things like hypercompetitive marketplace resulting in continued price deflation, pressure on occupancy costs (ie Frank Lowry et al screwing them), overall consumer sentiment, department store tactics (under cutting them?) and high petrol prices the wildcard (could make things bad but if cars are too expensive to run I would have thought shoes would have worn out faster?)

Anyway interesting times ahead for CDO ... and its shareprice

winner69
27-11-2005, 06:26 PM
So a bit of downside risk to this years $57M profit guidance

Effectively 40 cents (10%) off the shareprice post announcemnt but (being smart?) and advising a 40 cent special dividend didn't make the figures look too bad on Friday.

Halebop ... still in there?

At least JBH maintaining those gains and ahareprice staying above that reisistance you mentioned.

Halebop
27-11-2005, 07:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Halebop ... still in there?

No I beat a hasty retreat on the profit warning and big fall back in July or August. Managed to leave with my shirt intact but felt a bit miffed with the shareprice up to $5.00 just prior.

These look well and truly range bound at the moment. I really thought they'd find a good buy with their warchest but like me perhaps they are thinking things are looking a little out of wack on the share market sentiment versus interest rate / Inflation / Good News front. Bodes well on the instutional imperative front though. I like a company that can walk away from dealing more than a company that can "create" deals. Suspect they will still have plenty of cash to play with come next June anyway...

Remains on my watchlist.

soulman
28-11-2005, 12:49 AM
Ummm.....40 cents FF div....That's not bad eating at all.

My feeling is that CDO has another 20 or cents north to go prior to the ex date for the special div. Even if CDO earned $35 mil NPAT this FY (down from $42 mil last year), that's still a PE of less than 13. Also the weak Aussie dollar will affect CDO purchasing power a little as well. Competition is another issue with huge discounting among other major retailer. It's a 50:50 call on CDO ATM.

winner69
05-12-2005, 06:44 PM
Soulman ... market obviously took the bad points from your post today ,,, reacted accordingly

So effectively quite a drop from before the special div was announced since they said things weren't that bright

Lizard
25-01-2006, 07:42 PM
Another profit downgrade....when you see one, you often see three, and I think this may be the third....and hopefully the last.

Looks like Soulman might not be too far off with the $35m NPAT...

So at (tomorrows) price, it will be good value and just a matter of waiting for it to find the bottom...?!?

SEC
25-01-2006, 08:18 PM
Operating profit downgrade from $57M to $43M, that's a bigger drop than what the analysts were expecting. Combine this with the CEO not renewing his contract and it's not good for the next few days, $3.30 beckons.

Those instos that eagerly bought Solomon Lew's entire stake for about $6 per share and still hold must be crying in their beer.

SEC

Dazza
25-01-2006, 09:54 PM
halebop still this one on ur watthlist?

Halebop
25-01-2006, 10:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

Halebop still this one on your wacthlist?


Hi Dazza,

CDO are just sitting on my list waiting for a change of technical sentiment. Short of any catastrophic downturn in trading, they are well within fair value now. But personally I think they could fall a ways yet - they seem very unloved.

I'll be interested to see where the final numbers lie. My original FA was based on 6 years data - 7 is optimal (as a rule of thumb a series of 6 is around 50% more likely to show a wrong indicater than a series of 7).

Halebop
27-01-2006, 12:16 PM
A major pounding this morning...

Lizard
27-01-2006, 12:36 PM
SEC's call on $3.30 was a good one...low so far of $3.25

soulman
27-01-2006, 01:17 PM
Yes, Solomon must be laughing right now. He might even start to accumulate some CDO today although I think CDO will hit the $2.90's within 2 weeks time so he might wait and see. Or maybe there will be a dead cat bounce. However, as seen in HSP, it just kept on sliding 3 to 4 days in a row.

The fact that the CEO is not renewing his contract might be a good thing for CDO long-term as the injection of new blood will be good for CDO.

I have a good feeling about another profit downgrade as I walked past CDO and Williams shoe store often and always see discounting signs on the front. Also, heavy competition from other retailers like JST, DJS, Myers and to a lesser extent Biw W, Target and K-Mart will affect CDO greatly and this has shown. All those other retailers is also struggling with their discretionary selling and hence, all discounting heavily to reduce their stock level. It's a tough world out there.

winner69
28-01-2006, 01:16 PM
Sure did take a beating on friday after that profit downgrade .... CDO did sort of 'fool' everybody in November with their veiled downgrade by giving that 40 cent dividend at the same time

Hallensteins have done OK in both NZ and Aust ... put it down in part to providing the right product mix ..... maybe that's what wrong ... stores full of stock that nobody wants ... not a good sign at all for future prospects

Whatever the lower the price goes all the better the payback when retail turns again.

soulman
03-02-2006, 05:23 PM
Good bounce for CDO on higher volumes.

Institutions must be buying at these levels.

Lizard
17-02-2006, 09:24 AM
What do you think of the chart Halebop? It looks quite interesting to my untrained eye and I was thinking might be time to buy?

limegreen
17-02-2006, 11:21 AM
Longterm it's still very much in it's downtrend. However, the price action certainly seems very promising, and has broken the shorter term trends plotted.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/cdo17feb06.gif

Halebop
17-02-2006, 02:41 PM
Hi Lizard,

I like some of the recent volumes but as LG's chart shows that is a lot of downtrend it's swimming against. Playing against the primary downtrend is maybe a bit fraught right now but buyers in the low $3s have already been amply rewarded so what do I know?

http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/6/cdoax17aug05to19feb064nz.png

limegreen
17-02-2006, 03:33 PM
I think current buyers may be amply rewarded, however, if it fails to break the long term downtrend, it will may be just a (profitable) medium term trade. If it does break the long-term downtrend, then it those who enter now will be well ahead. I guess it rather depends on timeframe.

Lizard
20-02-2006, 05:10 PM
Thanks guys. Off to a good start.:)

Lizard
28-03-2006, 03:03 PM
Is running hard today - $3.95 now. Sentiment mellowing on retail outlook now and CDO suddenly looks cheap I guess. Also dragged up by the market running hot.

soulman
30-03-2006, 04:30 PM
CDO looks cheap on fundamental. It looks like they are retaining their dividend of 24 cents PS and that's yielding at 6% FF on a $4 SP. Their balance sheet are healthy in a way they can still retain their dividend while things are struggling. Low PE, potential to gain on further consumer sentiment and tax cut, I wished I bought this at $3.55 when they announce their profit result last week and retaining a very nice 18 cents FF divy. I think the market were expecting them to cut their divy.

Halebop
18-05-2006, 11:25 PM
Strange but ugly chart, downtrend confirmed...

http://img47.imageshack.us/img47/35/cdoax17may04to19may061pe.png

Some signs at least that they are now being accumulated with a rising OBV

Revisiting some earlier numbers with the missing 7th year...

Return on Equity

ROE calculated NPAT on start of year shareholders funds (but excludes goodwill)...

2000 29.48%
2001 27.18%
2002 27.98%
2003 31.40%
2004 33.09%
2005 36.95%
2006 24.06%

Owner Earnings

1999 -1.476m
2000 +13.349m
2001 +7.756m
2002 +19.178m
2003 +22.919m
2004 +27.543m
2005 +35.539m
2006 +30.102m

"Retained" Owners earnings dropped to ($29.884m) due to a $37.1m extraordinary dividend. Despite the dividend liquidity remained high with $21m cash, almost no debt and a current ratio of 2.7:1, the highest since 2000.

Profit Margins

EBIT to Sales margins from 1999-2006

1999 1.82%
2000 5.71%
2001 7.11%
2002 6.93%
2003 7.92%
2004 9.71%
2005 13.10%
2006 10.57%

Ebit margin dropped sharply on similar revnues. Seems to be a combination of discounting and a weaker Aussie dollar. None the less still the 2nd best margin result in the series.

CDO are obviously exposed to the fortunes of be an importer / merchant in the retail sector. None the less they continued to roll out new stores and invest substantial sums in infrastructure (Capex of $14.5m vs $16.2m in 2005)

Tax cuts in Australia should have positive ramifications although perhaps the RBA will move to swallow these with higher interest rates. On 2006's modest EPS of 38.4c (down from 46), extrapolating 10% growth* for 5 yrs with 3% termination growth and 10% discount rate DCF value is $7.50. The current price of $3.60 is an attractive discount (margin of error). I'll look to buy on a reversal of trend but to date the trend has proved worthy of following.

* 10% may be ambitious this year but it seems a reasonable number over the medium term given continued footprint expansion and the current weak results.

Lizard
20-06-2006, 01:39 PM
After heading down further on last post, CDO back to $3.60 today with a 20c gain on okay volume. Maybe not enough to break that downtrend yet, but keep watching... afraid I already have enough myself though from earlier buys around this level.

Westie
21-06-2006, 08:26 AM
The appointment of Gresham Advisory Partners to help with "various corporate and financial matters" has started speculation that this is some sort of defence move against a takeover offer, or an a pre-emptive move to lift the company's share price closer to what management thinks is "fair value".

CDO trades at a relatively mean 6.9 times consensus estimate cash flow per share, compared with more than 10 times for Just Group and about 13 times for Globe International.

A private equity raid is considered the most likely possibility.

Halebop
21-06-2006, 09:35 AM
I hope they buy business that doesn't need turning around. Leveraging up the balance sheet and returning cash to owners is probably the most likely outcome without a CEO in place. Unfortunately, the art of getting this "just right" makes for a less than satisfactory outcome. Too little debt will not dissuade would be suiters and too much threatens their stability. At a time when both management and earnings are showing some cracks leverage could exaggerate this into a chasm.

Westie
21-06-2006, 12:53 PM
it has been mentioned that private equity could take both globe & colorado & roll them in to one entity.

Halebop
21-06-2006, 12:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by Westie

it has been mentioned that private equity could take both globe & colorado & roll them in to one entity.

Given that would make no strategic sense what so ever... it might be quite likely!

Westie
22-06-2006, 03:58 PM
quote:Given that would make no strategic sense what so ever... it might be quite likely!


Well, not entirely, i note they both have at least one "o" in their name. This could have as yet unidentified important strategic worth.

For example, I note that globe is up almost 4% today and colorado up 11%. This equals roughly 4% gain per "o".

Good for those holding CDO, which unfortunately doesn't include me.:(

Lizard
22-06-2006, 04:11 PM
Unless they trash it on the close, it's gonna break your long term trend-line today HB!

Halebop
22-06-2006, 04:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Unless they trash it on the close, it's gonna break your long term trend-line today HB!

Well and truly. Totally cocked up my grand schematics. Was going to let the share price dribble along for a few months and pick them up around $3.20 ish on a support line bounce dammit.

There's the makings a resistence band around the $4.30 mark. Still good value but I'm not totally keen without someone permanent at the helm and an unknown outcome to any financial engineering they might manage to pull out of the hat.

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/5698/cdoax21jun04to23jun068xe.png

Lizard
18-07-2006, 10:35 AM
Takeover offer at $4.50. Seems a little stingy, but price was driven here by speculation of one... Will work out tidily for me anyway with most recent parcel bought $3.57 in May. Averaging down seems to work ok for me, provided its not on speccies...

Lizard
31-08-2006, 04:04 PM
Revised offer of $4.70 (plus divi option which is more attractive for Aussie holders). I have sold on market at $4.68. Time is money.

winner69
02-09-2006, 06:43 AM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

For Winner69, a reward for ramping Colorado on an MHI thread! :D[:p]

15% growth for 10 years, falling to 0% after that: NPV$13.10
15% growth for 10 years, falling to 5% after that: NPV$20.99
12.5% growth for 10 years, falling to 0% after that: NPV$10.98
12.5% growth for 10 years, falling to 5% after that: NPV$17.31
10% growth for 10 years, falling to 0% after that: NPV$9.20
10% growth for 10 years, falling to 5% after that: NPV$14.26

With a 50% margin of error CDO looks good value on most of these estimates. I'd be inclined to await the impact of rising interest rates and falling consumer confidence but I've definitely added CDO to my watch-list. I think I'd prefer to see another year under its belt as well to help confirm the trends.



When Halebop started this thread CDO shareprice was just under $6.00. Looks like punters are going to take the $4.70 being offered .... and prob happy to get that

Everything that Halebop wrote in that post last year probably still holds. His long term valuations are prob still relevant.

So Affinity look they are getting a bargain ... when taking a longer time view past and future ..... great timing in buying at or near the bottom of the retail cycle and grasping the opportunity when CDO have some temporary setbacks.

Their exit plan is very transparent ... build on the fixes that CDO had already started and do a few other things .... and when retail is booming again in 4-5 years time you can see an IPO at somewhere in the range of halebops valuations - like $10 to $20. Great return for Affinity (prob highly leveraged as well)

Great analysis a year ago halebop ... pity you didn't manage to share in the long term returns that CDO was likely to make.

Maybe need to put more into private equity funds the way the world is going.

Halebop
02-09-2006, 06:18 PM
Whatever the outcome it seems unlikely we'll be making the profits or losses on it now. I suspect if the deal closes they got a bargain though. Still plenty of cash flow to service whatever debt they load it up with and if they can keep the store expansion going in 5 to 7 years they could double the value of the enterprise (and probably earn a 300% to 500% return depending on debt).

soulman
26-09-2006, 02:04 PM
A company associated with Solomon Lew just bought a 10% plus stake to block the deal. Any comments on this as I still hold CDO and will most likely accept the offer before it close this week.

A share price plunge after the offer close is possible because it's illiquid and there is a very small chance Solomon Lew can launch a bid for it since Affinity has 60% already.

OldRider
26-09-2006, 02:27 PM
Sold mine a day or two ago for $4.70 on market, then watched a slow drift up. I have held for some years, the thinking was the dividend whilst attractive to Australians was not to me as it would be taxable, better off with the money all in the capital gain.

For traders nothing in it I guess.

Halebop
26-09-2006, 02:34 PM
Think the shares went ex dividend today to the tune of 52 cents? The price now is just 1 cent above the effective offer price. There was probably an element of dividend stripping by traders in the share price hence the outsized differential between dividend, offer price and market price (and the 66 cent drop today).

The dividend element was unattractive to New Zealand shareholders so I'd be surprised if there were many punters left from this side of the Tasman. Selling at above the effective dividend + offer price was far more attractive to Kiwis.

soulman
26-09-2006, 05:02 PM
Yes, it did went ex-dividend today of 52 cents and I actually bought for the franking credits at $4.67 twice. Sold my other half for $4.80 yesterday and this half, although should have gone through at $4.38 today (I put in a sell order last night at $4.36 and it was cancelled this morning). Not sure why and a major bummer.

I saw the Solomon Lew substantial holding statement after the market closed yesterday and just wondering what he has in mind. 10.15% of CDO at about $4.74 each. He surely is blocking Affinity of getting above 90% but why? Will he be lauching a T/O bid for CDO? I guess there will be synergies for the Witchery chain he just bought about a month ago.

mark100
26-09-2006, 05:34 PM
soulman,

When a stock is going ex div all the orders are purged the night before. So your sell order would have been cancelled by the ASX.

Today's AFR reckons Lew will be happy to sit on his stake in CDO for a long time like he has done with his 12% Country Road holding. This will be a pain for Affinity as they will be wanting full access to CDO's cash flows to service the debt on their highly leveraged bid. They may end up buying out Lew's stake at a higher price in the future.

Mark

soulman
27-09-2006, 02:55 AM
Yes, that's right Mark but I put the order in at about 1 am. The ASX has cleared all orders at 7pm for all stocks going ex-div the next day. So, this usually works for me when I put a sell order on ex-div stock after ASX has cleared everything.

It said that a trading rep will look at this order when I hit the submit button so he or she cancelled me out on a tidy profit.

Yeah, read the AFR today as well. This is a cunning move by Lew but I supposed he is awash with cash.

winner69
30-03-2011, 02:26 PM
Finally (or about to go) in administration

Another company ruined by greedy private equity and greedy bankers - they deserve the decent haircut they will take on this one - prob mostly the bankers .... I love it

They never learn ... debt never goes away eh ... until paid

The group still makes money .... before the bankers get their share ... margins prob a bit thinner thinner than a while ago ... and somebody like Lew will make parts of it fire again

Just shows you the reality that most stocks are invariable overvalued ... even though a PE of 12 might seem cheap ... only cheap in the eyes of those who think they can leverage soemthing out of it and in case taht doesn't always work

mark100
30-03-2011, 02:48 PM
And Solomon Lew will probably buy some of the good bits (if he doesn't bid for Myer as speculated in today's AFR) after sucking every last $$ out of the private equity guys just 5 years ago!

Lizard
30-03-2011, 03:01 PM
Funny today - was thinking about CDO, HST and ISF as I was looking through the opinion columns... CDO about to go into admin, ISF sitting on the borderline between VA and a trade sale that might leave shareholders with cents apiece and HST scavenging for a refinancing deal that doesn't strip the wealth from existing holders... all of these shares were favourites of mine once and I once made money from them (although in ISF's case, I would have lost all of it again on the final trade!).

Fundamentals change - even for the stocks that seem like "quality".

mark100
30-03-2011, 03:58 PM
Yes CIY, CPK and AFG were all fabulous for me. And I managed to escape them all with profits intact. Luck or skill I'm still not sure!

percy
30-03-2011, 06:38 PM
The big problem for retailers is leases.When everything is going well for them and they are expanding with more shops they are keen to get into high profile sites usually in malls.To get space in these malls they have to prove what hot shot retailers they are.The malls can not believe their luck ,so they stitch them up.A long lease,rachet clauses etc.Instead of paying say 12% of turnover they agree to about 16% which means the retailer has to put up prices to keep up margin.
Then a retail down turn arrives,and rent is now 21% of turnover.To stay in business retailer has to reduce prices to attract customers.Landlord laughs when asked for a reduced rent.Landlord does have to listen to receivers.

winner69
30-03-2011, 06:55 PM
.Landlord laughs when asked for a reduced rent.Landlord does have to listen to receivers.

Landlord gets a bit peeved when the reciever terminates the lease and walks away .... empty shop ... no income .... and interest,rates, insurance etc to pay

percy
30-03-2011, 07:11 PM
Landlord gets a bit peeved when the reciever terminates the lease and walks away .... empty shop ... no income .... and interest,rates, insurance etc to pay

And so the life cycle goes on.Another punter tries,until such time as in USA you run out of punters,then landord goes into receivership.
What you say winner69 is the whole point.Receiver can terminate the lease and walk away,but the retailer can not.