Blood on the floor.

[JBmurc]

jbmerc

werent u 40% cash most of the time?

Hell no had a couple of stoplosses triggered which put me into cash for a couple days
but with the bargins round I couldn't not buyup some cheap resource shares only wish I brought larger caps rather than the smaller caps which for me havn't done to well
I brought up more-STX,PENO,EKAO,PSA,ARQ,CTO,MON

SOLD-ADI,TEXO,DLS

[Dazza]

jbmerc ah no it wasnt you

it was tricha who was 40% cashed up

sorry about that

yeah i brought blue chips on the fall eh

QBE/WOW/BNB - all up 20% + since i have brought in

wish id brought more though

[Huang Chung]

I brought up more-STX,PENO,EKAO,PSA,ARQ,CTO,MON

SOLD-ADI,TEXO,DLS

JBM...I take it you're still bullish on Sugarloaf...just increasing your leverage via EKAO??

[JBmurc]

-Yeah buying up EKAO gave me more leverage to the SL area drilling also freed up some funds to leverage through a CFD long into more ARQ which owns 30% of ADI but has alot of other drills& upsides

[shane_m]

+7000 Alert ! Alert !

over 6750 now..

[Hoags]

Not a nice night on the DOW last night dropped 367 points or 2.66%. Same old concerns and poor earnings data.

[_Michael]

I was kind of glad to see US dive overnight - just started buying there six months or so ago and found that among the market shakes - some of large caps are trading cheaper than ASX/NZX and reporting and management over there seems to be very share holder friendly. In the cases that I am following at least, (GGG, JNJ, BNI) they like applying excess cash to share buy backs as opposed to the Aussies, who always seem to be raising capital. I guess however that is because many of of the NYSE companies are maturing, yet somehow they manage to keep finding new avenues for growth...

Does anyone else in here also allocate a small part of their share investing to the US??

M

[Hoags]

Yeah I do actually. I hold UTX (United Tecnologies) large diversified industrials / aerospace / defence and COP (Conococo Phillips) a large oil company, I have also held MTSN (Mattison Technologies) a small/mid cap semiconductor stock.

The reason why I invested there initially is because I was earning USD for a portion of last year and the exchange rate has been dismal.

Personally I don't feel that it offers any better opportunities than the ASX but that is only because it is so big and thus hard for me to get my head around small/mid caps. As you say though some of the large caps offer some good buying opportunities with the current weakness in the USD, provided the USD reverses its decline in the mid to long term the currency play should be very positive to the portfolio also.

I am interested in discussing NYSE stocks a bit further perhaps in a new thread, especially some Chinese stocks (eg. China Petroleum and Chemical) and that are listed there.

[_Michael]

Hi Hoags

Agree with 100% - the issue is that the USD will need to reverse its decline in the medium term for this to have a positive impact. That is probably my biggest fear with US investments - apparently Buffett has been very bearish on the US Dollar for quite a while now but I don't know if that was before its recent further weakening or not.

Yeah - i also agree that there are just as many opportunities on the ASX, but in my experiences most of these are in the smaller caps. I also found it hard to get my head around the number of stocks out there etc but use a few resources that I have become familiar with, namely;

Morningstar Research

I subscribed for US $145.00 per annum - thorough easy to follow, they give you nice charts showing average p/e / roe / etc ratios over last decade. Can send you an example or two if you give me email.

Google Finance

This is awesome, you can set up watchlist portfolios by industry etc, and rank stocks by anything you like such as p/e forward p/e market cap etc... Great central depository for all your US investment ideas.

Fool

This, believe it or not has lots and lots of great investement ideas for US stocks that of course you can research yoruself further...


SEC Filings

This is where you will find the gospel truth on every listed US company, by law!

http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml

Regards
M

[Huang Chung]

OK, any guesses as to how many points we'll be down tomorrow?

I reckon 125.

[shasta]

OK, any guesses as to how many points we'll be down tomorrow?

I reckon 125.

Given 7 US companies made up over 200 points of the fall.

Im picking a knee jerk reaction of up to 170 points down, before a late arvo recovery ...

[Hoags]

I would agree HC I think about 120 on the ASX. I think it will look pretty nasty in the first couple of hours some people will be sweating big time about two hours into the session where I think it may get as bad as 230 points, buy the time lunch is over Sydney time I reckon normalcy will have returned.

Public holiday here in Kiwi land so all our instys will be out on vacation. I am not sure if that has any noticeable effect on ASX volumes?

I opened some CFD shorts on the Aussie 200 (hedges) late in the piece on Friday at 6679 they are now sitting at 6561 after the DOW session on Friday. I will probably look to close some of them out before lunch provided I see signs of a recovery.

It's the first time I have done it and they would not cover my entire portfolio but its nice to know I can cover some of my losses if the market gaps it big time......

Micheal,
Sounds good, I will flick you an email tomorrow some time.

Cheers

Hoags

[shane_m]

-183 points....

not sure what to buy 2rw, blue chips or the oilers....????

[shasta]

-183 points....

not sure what to buy 2rw, blue chips or the oilers....????

Shane

I think GOLD & OIL producers will do better than most tomorrow...

[tommy]

Hi all,

Everyone seems to think that the ASX will tank tomorrow (and it undoubtedly will) but the question is, where will the DOW bottom out?

Looking at the chart

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=djia&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

DOW seems to have more room to fall, in which case the ASX can tank even further considering how the world markets follow DOW like a bunch of lemmings.

I am wondering whether it might even be a good idea to increase my cash ratio (currently I am 30% cash) in hope of picking up quality stocks more cheaply.

I hate seeing my portfolio show nothing but red and see the gains over the past few weeks being erased in a matter of hours!!

The August DOW panic sell off was triggered due to credit crunch (or fear thereof) instigated by the subprime lenders and other financial institutions (who should be wiped out for good).

The Friday DOW nosedive seems to have been triggered by the fear of recession drummed up by a few big companies blaming solely the economic environment rather than management incompetence for their poor performance (when in fact both factors probably should be blamed).

As USA is in the middle of the reporting season, a few good announcements might send the DOW back up quite quickly but surging oil prices certainly don't help do they.
And of course, the psychological factor "the 1987 crash 20th anniversary, will history repeat itself?" might have had a little bit to contribute to investor behavior...

I'm trying to be level-headed when Mr. Market gets wobbly but I guess my nerves will be tested again when all the lemmings press the SELL button and activate a wave of stoploss triggers :-P

[tricha]

Big share falls feared on Monday

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42999000/jpg/_42999925_nyse2_ap.jpg The falls came on the twentieth anniversary of Black Monday

There are fears of sharp falls on European stock markets on Monday after Friday's hefty falls on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones, the main US share index, fell 367 points on Friday, which was the 20th anniversary of the Black Monday stock market crash.
Most of the falls came after European markets closed, so they will have their first chance to react on Monday.
The falls were set off by concerns that the full effects of the US housing slowdown have not yet been seen.
'Pretty ugly'
It started when the building equipment firm Caterpillar cut its profit forecast, blaming the state of the economy.
"It's pretty ugly," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading.
"A company like Caterpillar should be a poster child for global growth and benefits of the weak dollar," he said.
"It makes you question: Is global growth really that strong? Has the earnings kick from the weak dollar played itself out?"
On Black Monday, the Dow Jones fell 23%, which nowadays would mean a drop of more than 3,000 points. "I think we're responding emotionally to the 20th anniversary of the October 1987 stock market crash," said Andy Brooks, head of trading at T Rowe Price. "I'd like to laugh except it hurts," he added.

[winner69]

But people say the US markets are valued about right .... like the S&P500 on a PE of about 16/17 .... but thats based on the assumption that record profit margins and earnings are here to say.

"Normalising" profit margins and the S&P500 has a PE of 24

And I heard that over those who have reported earnings this reporting period are slightly negative .... last reporting period was +6% (just what I heard on the TV)

So where to from here ..... either a crash and get it all over with quickly or low returns from equities for many years

So remain with stock picking .... and hold if only trending up .... watch those charts

[_Michael]

Yep - and looking at Bank of America's result last week (NPAT down 32%) its clear that sub-prime has hardly been put to bed yet.

[ScrappyO]

Looking at a 155 points down on asx at the bell so far...Big Deal i say just another correction in these turbulent times. I suppose we will start seeing all the scare mongers sounding off again.

[JBmurc]

Looking at a 155 points down on asx at the bell so far...Big Deal i say just another correction in these turbulent times. I suppose we will start seeing all the scare mongers sounding off again.

Yep much like last time good Resource sector share like the rest of the market will get sold down then rebound within a short time alot of weak holders will sell at the bottom to find it hard to buy back-in -When all the time this shares are making record profits on record breaking high commondity prices.

[shane_m]

looking at pre market depth BHP already going down about $3.00

[JBmurc]

Current match price- BHP 46.60 down 50c on close will of course change before open

when you mean down $3 your talking about the lowest ask -Match price is the real likely open price

[whatsup]

Wow, little or no sell off ,down a fews points,whatsup, what a surprise!

[winner69]

Interesting that the Dow and S&P 500 closed Friday almost where they were at when the Fed lowered interest rates in September ........ and since then the Fed hasn't injected any liquidity in to the banking system.

So as they said on TV 100% certainity of another rate cut coming up ..... but remember that early this century 14 consecutuve rate cuts couldn't stop a 50% decline in the US markets

[soulman]

Winner, I think you seen a lot of the market than most people here. In your analysis, what direction do you think the market is heading to? The US and the Australian.

[Huang Chung]

OK, any guesses as to how many points we'll be down tomorrow?

I reckon 125.

ASX 200 down 129
All Ords down 131.2

Oh well, at least I had one 'win' today, so to speak.........

[winner69]

Soulman - I believe at best US markets at year end a bit less where they are now, say S&P500 at 1450 .... at worse a crash sometime time soon and where that goes is anybodys guess. Bear in mind there hasn't been a really bad day (historically speaking) on the US markets for many years.

OZ markets tend to follow general trend but year end about where it is now unless the crash occurs.

Thats my view of the overall market but even in these times a fair percentage of stocks still increase .... so keeping hold of those but watching the charts closely

[shasta]

ASX 200 down 129
All Ords down 131.2

Oh well, at least I had one 'win' today, so to speak.........

Well done HC

I did say it would drop 170 points & then recover ...:D

[doon]

Winner, I think you seen a lot of the market than most people here. In your analysis, what direction do you think the market is heading to? The US and the Australian.
Winner, I also respect a 'guru's' view, so what do you think about this?- I believe the US cannot allow the domestic economy to dive too much- while involved in Iraq etc with the huge drain on the economy to support the war(s), they could not allow the economy to tank as it would affect their ability to fund the war! So the Fed will have to ensure they prop-up the economy in the meantime? hmm? I reckon they will allow up's & downs', hope for a bit of an ease off, but will not let a crash at this point of time.

[Heavy Metal]

Shane

I think GOLD & OIL producers will do better than most tomorrow...

GOLD and OIL producers got smashed particularly hard today....

Not surprising really, oil is currently vastly overpriced and the market is sensing the peak has occurred.

[tommy]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/22/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Bleak Monday for stocks
Futures sharply lower as investors remain wary after last week's brutal sell off; overseas markets tumble.
October 22 2007: 5:04 AM EDT

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks appeared poised for a sharply lower open on Monday as investors worldwide remained jittery following last week's brutal sell off on Wall Street.

Stocks in Asia tumbled and European markets opened sharply lower after the Dow Jones industrial average posted its third-biggest point loss of the year on Friday.

Mixed corporate profits, record-high oil prices and renewed concerns about the credit crunch have all taken a toll on sentiment.

Another batch of corporate earnings will be released Monday, including results from Merck (Charts, Fortune 500), American Express (Charts, Fortune 500) and Apple Computer (Charts, Fortune 500).

Oil prices eased after hitting record levels last week. The front-month contract was trading below $88 a barrel in Asian trading after breaking through the key $90 a barrel level on Friday.

Among stocks to watch, General Motors (Charts, Fortune 500) edged back ahead of Japanese rival Toyota Motor in 2007 global sales. Toyota sold 7.05 million vehicles in the first nine months of the year, versus GM's global sales of 7.06 million.

The Wall Street Journal reported that brokerage Bear Stearns (Charts, Fortune 500) is near an agreement with Chinese investment bank Citic Securities that would involve each company taking a $1 billion stake in the other.

[tommy]

Am I the only one looking forward to an extended bloodbath this week? I'm ready for serious bargain hunting :-)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a48c6AK.XrUY&refer=home


Global Stocks, U.S. Futures Drop; BHP Billiton, Toyota Decline

By Sarah Thompson
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia fell after the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said the rising cost of credit, record oil prices and the U.S. housing slump will sap economic growth. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures sank.

BHP Billiton Ltd. retreated after copper prices slipped. Daimler AG, the world's largest truckmaker, and Royal Philips Electronics NV led a decline by companies most sensitive to shifts in the economy. Electrolux AB dropped after saying lower demand in the U.S. may hurt earnings. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest automaker, slumped to a 14-month low.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index lost 0.8 percent to 1,614.79, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.6 percent to 1,496 at 11:26 a.m. in London. More than 11 stocks fell for each one that rose in the MSCI World and all 10 industry groups in the measure retreated. European stocks dropped to a four-week low, while shares in Asia slid the most in two months.

``The market is concerned about a strong slowdown or a recession,'' said Salah Seddik, a fund manager at Richelieu Finance in Paris, which oversees $5 billion. ``The crisis in the credit markets is spilling into the general economy. It's time for the stock market to take a breath.''

Policy makers met for the first time since a collapse in demand for assets backed by U.S. subprime mortgages sparked a surge in international borrowing costs.

``Recent financial market turbulence, high oil prices and weakness in the U.S. housing sector will likely moderate'' the global expansion, officials said in a statement.

National Benchmarks

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 1.9 percent to 162.64, the steepest decline since Aug. 17. Benchmarks across the region retreated except for Pakistan.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.6 percent to 374.82, the lowest since Sept. 25. National benchmarks slid in all of the 17 western European markets that were open. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 fell 1.3 percent and Germany's DAX sank 0.5 percent. France's CAC 40 retreated 1.8 percent.

BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, declined 2.8 percent to 1,784 pence. Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as 1.9 percent to $7,717 a metric ton in London. Nickel, lead, zinc and aluminum prices also dropped.

Posco, Asia's biggest steelmaker by market value, lost 3.3 percent to 584,000 won. Nippon Steel Corp., the world's second- largest steelmaker, retreated 3.5 percent to 770 yen.

Daimler dropped 3.6 percent to 71.27 euros. Philips, Europe's largest maker of consumer electronics, declined to 2.7 percent to 28.54 euros.

Electrolux, Toyota

Electrolux slid 4.6 percent to 133.5 Swedish kronor. The world's second-largest maker of household appliances said lower U.S. demand and higher steel and plastic costs may hurt earnings growth this year.

Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, lowered its full-year profit forecast on Oct. 19 as the U.S. housing slump cut sales of construction equipment in North America.

Toyota Motor sank 2.1 percent to 6,120 yen, the lowest since Aug. 7, 2006. Honda Motor Co., which generated 55 percent of its sales in North America last year, slid 2.1 percent to 3,750 yen. Sony Corp., which counts the U.S. as its largest market, fell 1.9 percent to 5,220 yen.

The yen rose to a six-week high against the dollar. The risk of owning European corporate bonds increased, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

Carlsberg A/S dropped 2.5 percent to 692 kroner after the Financial Times reported that the Danish beermaker is planning a rights offer valued at $5.8 billion to fund its proposed takeover bid for Scottish & Newcastle Plc. The newspaper didn't say where it got the information.

Carlsberg's spokesman Jens Peter Skaarup declined to comment on the FT article.

Total, Commerzbank

Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, decreased 2 percent to 54.72 euros. BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, retreated 0.5 percent to 608 pence.

Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 99 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $87.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $88.09 a barrel at 2:55 p.m. Singapore time.

Commerzbank AG declined 3.9 percent to 28.98 euros. Germany's second-largest bank is more affected by the credit market crisis than previously expected, Financial Times Deutschland reported, citing Chief Executive Officer Klaus-Peter Mueller.

Royal DSM NV, the world's biggest maker of vitamins, lost 2.3 percent to 38.16 euros after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. lowered its recommendation for the shares to ``underweight'' from ``overweight.''

British Energy Group Plc, whose nuclear reactors can produce about a fifth of the U.K.'s electricity, stopped Unit 1 at its Torness plant, taking the number of reactors halted over the weekend to three. The shares tumbled 9.1 percent to 526.5 pence.

[tricha]

China's rising living standard cranks up resource competition

http://saturn.tiser.com.au/images/AE1.gif (http://mercury.tiser.com.au/ADCLICK/CID=fffffffcfffffffcfffffffc/acc_random=70314445/SITE=TAUS/AREA=NEWS.FINANCE.MINING/AAMSZ=110X40/pageid=65683457)



Carl Mortished | October 18, 2007

HU Jintao wants to make every Chinese twice as rich by 2020. He has done it once - in just five years, per capita income doubled to $US2000 ($2250)- and the only obstacle in the Chinese President's path is the fuel needed to stoke the boiler of China's locomotive.
The president needs more copper, iron ore, zinc and natural gas. Above all, he needs more coal to keep the power stations humming and more oil for Chinese cars and lorries. China accounts for more than a third of world demand for coal and the price in Australia soared this year as the People's Republic switched from exporter to importer.
If Mr Hu had a message for the world in his address to the Communist Party National Congress, it was this: we will burn our coal and, if we have to, we will burn yours, too.
Put bluntly, it means that the Kyoto treaty on greenhouse gas emissions is dead and so is any prospect of persuading Beijing to bind itself to other curbs on carbon emissions. We can stop kidding ourselves that China will sign up to any green thingy that hinders his party's 10-year plan to get rich quick. Instead, the ravenous demand for minerals and metals will continue and the desperate land grab by Chinese state companies in their pursuit of resources in central Asia, Africa and Canada will become more politically embarrassing.
Until now, we in the West have been able to sit back and watch the global energy game passively on our Chinese-made flatscreen television sets. We could pretend that wind farms and wave machines could really make substantial contributions, that carbon trading could somehow make the cost of green energy disappear. We did not understand that the real cost of our affluent, energy-intensive lifestyles was being defrayed by sweated labour in a Chinese factory. While the price of clothes, fridges, televisions and toys was plummeting, we could ignore the fact that petrol, transport and even bread and milk were gripped by an inflationary spiral.
That is about to change because China's rate of consumption is beginning to have internal consequences for the People's Republic. Skilled labour is becoming more scarce for Chinese businesses and the cost of living is bearing down on Chinese consumers with increases in fuel and food prices. Inexorably, Chinese inflation will feed through into the cost of goods that China sells.
That means competition for resources will ratchet up. Europe has not even begun to consider the consequences for a half-hearted strategy of pursuing a low-carbon economy. In an effort to rein in the cost of electricity, British power generators have been switching from natural gas to coal, traditionally a cheaper fuel. However, it has lost its low-cost allure as the European price has doubled to $US100 a tonne.
Even so, analysts at Societe Generale calculate that the cost of carbon permits is still so low that, on the basis of current gas and coal prices, it remains cheaper to burn coal than to switch to cleaner natural gas.
For Mr Hu, this is a race for prosperity. Of course, he said a lot of other things about "the excessively high cost in resources and the environment" and about a restructuring of the economy away from heavy industry to services and high technology.
That may be a sensible objective in Shanghai, where inflation in manufacturing wages is already causing problems, but a doubling of the incomes of peasants in western China will not be achieved by turning them into estate agents. Industrialisation will move west and that has been the Communist Party's objective for more than a decade. Mr Hu knows that disparities in wealth between east and west are a huge political risk. The party needs growth if it is to survive for another decade and that means it must build homes, factories, hospitals and sewage plants.
Removing huge disparities in wealth means a massive acceleration in the burning of hydrocarbons. The four great energy companies of the West - ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Total - have quietly turned their backs on the low-carbon option. Alternative technologies simply don't deliver the power required to achieve the economic growth targets of China and India.
These companies are investing tiny sums in alternative energy. They know the nations of the West depend heavily on the profits, taxes and dividends that accrue from an efficient hydrocarbon economy. A failure to invest in oil and gas extraction will leave Europe and North America poor, technologically disabled and unequipped financially to cope with climate change.
It is not in our power to stop the Chinese locomotive. We should abandon our fantasies, acknowledge that carbon emissions will continue to grow, and plan accordingly.
The Times

[tommy]

Another day in da red　so far,

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=djia&draw.x=0&draw.y=0


http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=dow_jones

[sparrow]

Dow up 44 points. Apple records higher profits.

Should have got your bargains yesterday, TOMMY.
Dipped into CFE @ 44c, GDM @ 49c, CBH @52.

You might still get a couple of bargains today if you're lucky

[STRAT]

Dow up 44 points. Apple records higher profits.

Should have got your bargains yesterday, TOMMY.
Dipped into CFE @ 44c, GDM @ 49c, CBH @52.

You might still get a couple of bargains today if you're luckyHi Sparrow, what made you decide this is the right time to take a slice of GDM?

[sparrow]

QUOTE "Hi Sparrow, what made you decide this is the right time to take a slice of GDM?"

Hi STRAT,

It's pretty common knowledge that GDM's investments alone are worth around 42c at present (mainly UNX and Continental Nickel), so the market is putting a value on the rest of their prospects of 7 cents.
Worth a punt on the basis that their magnetite mine might proceed to production - an announcement of a Chinese partner would be a good boost to the share price. I believe thay are in negotiations with several parties. This could taake weeks, but it could also take years to come to fruition.

Secondly, the chart criteria that I follow suggest a breakout is imminent, but I hasten to add -I am not a chart expert. Certain chart indicaators work for me more often than not, but still can come a gutser.

Cheers
Sparrow

[tommy]

Down day on the DOW?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/24/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Bank woes bring out the bears
Futures point to weak open as uncertainty over Merrill Lynch's subprime hit grows; overseas markets slump.
October 24 2007: 4:54 AM EDT


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures were weaker Wednesday, as investors grew uncertain ahead of Merrill Lynch's earnings.

Concerns that Merrill (Charts, Fortune 500) may suffer a bigger loss than initially estimated due to risky mortgage bets weighed on sentiment. Merrill is due to report its results before the market open.

A little more than two weeks ago, Merrill Lynch said it expects to take about a $5 billion writedown, due largely to this summer's subprime crisis.

But the bank's hit could actually be much higher, at around $7 billion to $7.5 billion, according to reports in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times.

A wider-than-expected loss is likely to renew credit worries and further depress shares in the banking sector.

In the tech sector, Amazon.com (Charts, Fortune 500) reported late Tuesday a surge in quarterly sales and earnings. But investors expressed disappointment with the results, sending the online retailer's shares lower in after-hours trading.

In global trade, stocks in Asia gave up their gains and European markets were lower in early trading.

[tommy]

Can we expect a nosedive? Haven't started bargain hunting and shopping yet, I'm now 70% cash and still waiting for a proper correction... financial sector stocks should get a good battering tomorrow, making them more attractive.

_________________________

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUXBBRNV4eEs&refer=home

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop; Merrill Lynch, Amazon.com Fall

By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures declined after Merrill Lynch & Co. reported a bigger-than-expected third- quarter loss because of writedowns related to subprime mortgages, dimming the outlook for investment bank earnings.

Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage firm, slumped after posting its first quarterly loss since 2001. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. also dropped. Amazon.com Inc., whose shares topped $100 yesterday for the first time in almost eight years, fell on a profit forecast that may miss some analysts' estimates.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December lost 6 to 1,519.4 at 9:11 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures retreated 37 to 13,670. Nasdaq-100 Index futures slid 7.75 to 2,204.25.

``I have a hard time understanding how the stock market is going to gain any traction given the continued turmoil in the financial stocks,'' said Tom Wirth, who manages $1.8 billion at Chemung Canal Trust in Elmira, New York. ``It's very disconcerting. It's going to continue to drag on the market.''

The S&P 500 has declined 2.9 percent since reaching a record on Oct. 9, as lenders from Citigroup Inc. to Bank of America Corp. reported earnings that trailed analysts' estimates because of loan writedowns. Financial shares have slid 7.3 percent in the period, the worst performance among the S&P 500's 10 industry groups.

Futures also fell today after a lawmaker of Turkey's governing party said the country is bombing units of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq and sent troops across the border.

Banking Concern

Asian shares also declined on concern deepening losses from investments backed by U.S. home loans will reduce bank profits. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. dropped. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent to 164.33.

Merrill dropped $1.25 to $65.87. The larger-than-forecast $7.9 billion of writedowns for subprime mortgages and asset- backed bonds is the highest of any Wall Street firm. Its third- quarter loss of $2.24 billion, or $2.82 a share, compared with net income of $3.05 billion, or $3.17, a year earlier. The loss exceeded the 45-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Lehman, the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, declined 77 cents to $57.50. Bear Stearns, the second-biggest U.S. mortgage-bond underwriter, fell $1.16 to $115.

``The big danger is that a major bank gets significantly strained,'' said Thomas Koerfgen, a fund manager at SEB Asset Management in Frankfurt, which oversees the equivalent of $20 billion. ``When it comes to banking stocks, uncertainty will continue in the coming weeks and months.''

Amazon.com Forecast

Amazon.com sank $9.52 to $91.30. Fourth-quarter operating income will be between $221 million and $291 million, the world's largest Internet retailer said yesterday. Scott Tilghman, an analyst at Soleil Securities Corp., estimated profit of $278.5 million.

Broadcom Corp. slid $5.78 to $36.28. The maker of semiconductors for Motorola Inc. set-top boxes and Nintendo Co.'s Wii game consoles said yesterday third-quarter profit fell 75 percent after an expansion into the mobile-phone market boosted research spending. Deutsche Bank AG cut its recommendation on the stock to ``hold'' from ``buy.''

Corning Inc. fell $1.33 to $23.41. The biggest maker of glass for liquid-crystal display screens forecast fourth-quarter sales that fell short of analysts' estimates as TV sales slowed.

National City Corp., the biggest bank in Ohio, declined $1.06 to $22.85. The lender, which sold its subprime mortgage unit to Merrill last year just before the industry unraveled, posted third-quarter profit below analysts' estimates because of losses from home lending.

Amgen, Boeing

Amgen Inc. slipped 5 cents to $57.65. The world's biggest biotechnology company will probably say third-quarter profit excluding some items was $1.03 a share, the average estimate of 16 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Boeing Co. added 85 cents to $95.80. The world's second- biggest commercial-airplane maker said earnings rose 61 percent in the third quarter and boosted its full year profit and sales forecasts.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped in September to a six-year low, signaling no letup in the real-estate slump, economists said before a report today.

Purchases declined 4.5 percent to an annual rate of 5.25 million, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales would be down 27 percent from the peak reached in September 2005. The report from the National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington

[ratkin]

Starting to look good for a correction.
Expect the aussie market to be particularly well hammered today , those inflation figures combined with wall street drop should do the trick

[shane_m]

nice I am predicting -143 points today....I will look at buying just before the Friday afternoon drinks at work.

[JBmurc]

ASX Futures up 24
Gold---up
OIL---up

My pick for ASX steady to up 20 points today maybe more

[Hommel]

Dow down over 300 points overnight....

[spruik]

Dow down over 300 points overnight....

362 in fact (-2.6%), the roller coaster ride continues. Get wallets out or press panick button? :)

[Huang Chung]

Was about to wheel out the good ol' 'blood on the floor' thread myself, but you beat me to the punch Hommel.....:D

For once, I have cash available to buy cheap stock. Yeah!

The drop looks like a screaming over-reaction to me.....issue seems to be Citigroup specific and profit taking on oil stocks, but, as often is the case, panic set in and everything got sold off.

What do others think?

[Hommel]

I won't be getting the wallet out but I won't sell either... I went through my stocks one by one again a few days ago and asked myself "Do I really want to keep holding this company?" There is nothing that I really want to sell. But the US economy and it's potential effect on world markets does worry me - but not enough to cash up all my holdings.
I am sitting on about 15% cash at present across all my investments. It is really hard to know what to do - sit and wait - or add to my company holdings on days like this.

[JBmurc]

Am looking at taking a BEAR WARRENT with CWA some time soon on the DOW can see much more pain to come in the months ahead -would have taking it before recent fall if the funds had cleared

[Huang Chung]

I might hold off buying today, just too see if we can get better prices on Monday. Not feeling compelled to buy, so if I do buy, it'll want to be cheap.

It's a real pi$$er having to go to work on days like today when you really want to watch the market closely. :mad:

[alexroseinnes]

Was about to wheel out the good ol' 'blood on the floor' thread myself, but you beat me to the punch Hommel.....:D

For once, I have cash available to buy cheap stock. Yeah!

The drop looks like a screaming over-reaction to me.....issue seems to be Citigroup specific and profit taking on oil stocks, but, as often is the case, panic set in and everything got sold off.

What do others think?

Every time a major bank posts their sub-prime realted losses we see this reaction. Will probably happen every few weeks.

[alexroseinnes]

I might hold off buying today, just too see if we can get better prices on Monday. Not feeling compelled to buy, so if I do buy, it'll want to be cheap.

It's a real pi$$er having to go to work on days like today when you really want to watch the market closely. :mad:

There have been eight 90% down days on the DOW since July. Massive panic selling every time there is bad news. Sentiment overseas seems very bleak, and winning positions are getting sold off to pay for crappy trades.

I want to buy today, because most of these big drops since August have been one-day phenomenons. Sitting on my hands...not sure.

[winner69]

Subprime / credit crunch or whatever ain't gone away .... nothing like this goes away in one quarter ....... even the super fund that the main banks formed to put all this dodgy stuff in was only a tool to buy time ....... even the useless stuff that went in to this fund went in at 94 cents in the $ ..... and unless they can hive the billions off to the unsuspecting public will still have to write them down to true market value one day

So heaps more volatile times to come .... even the Fed can't save this

[spruik]

Hesitation results in missed opportunities. I've been buying around 10:15 for better or for worse.

[alexroseinnes]

Good man...

From Bloomberg. Every time I am close to panic I look at the bigger picture:

Korea to start $22b fund for resources



Korea will start a 20 trillion won ($22 billion) fund to invest in global oil and gas projects, vying with China, Japan and India for resources as prices soar.

National Pension Service, Korea`s biggest investor with $235 billion in assets, is in talks with the Commerce Ministry and government agencies to start the fund by the end of this year, the service`s chief said in an interview.

South Korea imports 97 percent of its energy needs, and is following China, India and Japan in tapping sources in Asia, Africa and Russia. Shifting pension money from bonds to oil, which rose to a record this week, will also help boost returns.

"We have great interest in resource commodities, such as oil, gas and metals," National Pension Service President Kim Ho-shik said in an interview on Wednesday. "We want to invest a lot in assets with higher risks and higher returns."

Crude oil prices have more than tripled since October 2002, reaching a record above $93 a barrel this week. Prices for copper on the London Metal Exchange have jumped more than fourfold in the past five years. Gold, which has more doubled in the past five years, reached $794.70 an ounce on Oct. 29, the highest since January 1980, while platinum reached a record.

China, the world`s biggest consumer of coal, copper and iron ore, said in January it may use its $1 trillion foreign exchange reserves to buy "strategic" resources.

Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India`s biggest explorer, said earlier this month it will seek a stake in an exploration area on Russia`s Sakhalin Island. Japanese government and business officials will visit South Africa next month to get supplies of metals for use in automobiles and steel alloys.

"This is all about security of supply, this is all about getting access to supply at a reasonable price," Mark Pervan, a commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said yesterday by phone. "For somewhere like Korea, which is very much a big consumer of commodities, this would make a lot of sense."

The pension service hasn`t yet decided how much it will contribute to the resources fund, Kim said. The service had 82 percent of its assets in bonds as of the end of August. Annual returns from bonds have more than halved since 2001, according to the service`s website.

South Korean regulations bar the pension fund from buying and selling commodities directly, while they permit investing in development projects through a fund, Kim said.

"Instead of investing directly in the company that does the development, the fund will form a special-purpose company with them specifically for the project," Kim said.

The Commerce Ministry said in August that South Korea will spend 10 trillion won on overseas oil and gas fields in the next decade, as competition for supplies with China and India intensifies. Those plans are "not related" to the resources fund mentioned by Kim, the ministry said in an e-mailed statement.

"Korea had been lagging behind in the race for resources," said Lim Jin-kyun, an oil-industry analyst at Daewoo Securities Co. in Seoul. "It sounds like a plan to improve returns and help the country secure what it needs at the same time."

Demand for commodities from emerging markets is increasing as their economies expand, driving up prices for the resources. China`s economy is growing at an 11.5 percent pace, India`s is expanding at 9.3 percent and South Korea`s is growing 5.2 percent.

South Korea aims to source about 28 percent of its oil and gas imports from South Korean-owned fields, up from 3.2 percent last year. (Bloomberg)

[sparrow]

The DOW is still in a long term uptrend................

[spruik]

Not sure why crappy results from the banks would trigger a slide - everyone should be expecting crappy results from those companies, its hardly a surprise! The **** hit the fan last quarter and now they are reporting on it. It will last until both the half and full year reports are done with. So its going to be a rocky year.

I'd take it as a buying opportunity. Its only when something else triggers a drop that I'd be worried - eg. corporate bankruptcies, china sharemarket collapse, nuclear war :-)

Judgement Day will be a good time to buy. My brother is still waiting.

[STRAT]

.... even the Fed can't save thisCertainly not , they are part of the problem.

[trendy]

I'm back!....been watching from the sidelines.

The other big issue is the FED had to add another $41B today for liquidity...and $23B of this was mortgage backed. Keep in mind the MCDOs are being downgraded from +AAA ....no body else wants to touch the stuff....except FED. This is the same as the RBA or RBNZ accepting sub-prime mortgages as collateral.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Home prices are falling here and also the winter period also sees a seasonal downturn in housing.

[winner69]

I'm back!....been watching from the sidelines.

The other big issue is the FED had to add another $41B today for liquidity...and $23B of this was mortgage backed. Keep in mind the MCDOs are being downgraded from +AAA ....no body else wants to touch the stuff....except FED. This is the same as the RBA or RBNZ accepting sub-prime mortgages as collateral.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Home prices are falling here and also the winter period also sees a seasonal downturn in housing.

That $41B wasn't really an 'injection of new liquidity' - essentially rollovers of previous agreements.

The Fed has injected nothing in the way of liquidity over the last few months ... all smoke and mirrors ....and psychological

[Bilo]

IMO It would be dangerous to dismiss this as a temporary blip.

Every share market index on my Bloomberg page is in red. This is just the first time round the world. It is my guess that it will take a lot of blue to recover. Once bitten my bearish tendencies didn't take long to rise again. Cashed in everthing that it made sense to cash - will be sorry if tomorrow proves it wasn't enough.

Hard to see why gold retreated from USD800 with inflation an almost certain consequence of all this loose money.

Oil may have retreated but it is still over USD90 and showing little sign of returning below USD80.

Could be pretty sad all round tomorrow, I reckon.

[Bilo]

Am looking at taking a BEAR WARRENT with CWA some time soon on the DOW can see much more pain to come in the months ahead -would have taking it before recent fall if the funds had cleared

JB What is a Bear Warrant? Who is CWA?
Sounds like a good CYA policy.

[STRAT]

Black November
Ouzilly, France - Melbourne, Australia
Friday, 2 November 2007
In This Issue:The trouble with financial stocks...

Numbers lie...

The end of Nigeria...


----------------------------------

From Dan Denning at the Old Hat Factory:

--Anyone under the impression that the carnage in the credit market is fully priced into financial stocks had better take a deep breath before reading on. Remember to breathe.

--How will the ASX react to yesterday's 362 point, 2.6% decline on the Dow? We think it will highlight the growing divergence between financial shares and resource shares. Granted, the difference is already pretty clear. One type of firm makes money off of money. The other makes money from "stuff." It's not complicated.

--But October came and went without the dreaded "Red" trading days that headline writers covet. That's okay. Black November is off to a good start.

--By good we mean really bad. "It almost feels as if yesterday's action in the market was a dream and we woke up today to a stark reality - that we're not going to be getting rid of this significant, persistent and consistent downdraft in the financials for some time," Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets, told Bloomberg.

--But yesterday's biggest news got the least attention. Little noticed and lightly reported in the aftermath of yesterday's post-rate cut rout is this item: the Federal Reserve injected US$41 billion into the American financial system in three separate open market operations yesterday.

--So what? What's US$41 billion between central bank cronies and their banking friends?

--That US$41 billion in one day is the second largest amount on record. And no single day of the credit crisis in August matched it. The previous record was set on September 19th, 2001, when the Fed pumped US$50 billion into the US markets in post 9-11 trading. So why, you may be wondering, did the Fed need to inject so much liquid courage into the market after cutting rates the day before?

--The answer may lie with Citibank (NYSE:C (http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maaixntabCru8bKUlEOeafpTkF/)), an American financial stock. Citibank appears to be the latest casualty in the slow-motion collapse of the asset-backed commercial paper market. That's the market where bundles of securitised assets (equipment, loans, credit card receivables) are used as collateral for loans. That market is the primary source of funding for certain financial institutions.

--Trouble is, the asset-backed commercial paper market has fallen by 26% since the beginning of the credit crisis in August. "The collapse of the market," writes Rex Nutting at CBS Marketwatch, "has prompted mortgage companies and others who relied on the commercial paper market to seek alternative sources of funding, mainly by tapping existing credit lines at large banks. The banks, in turn, have sought alternative funding for their special investment vehicles…Citigroup's shares were lower on Thursday on reports it needed to raise US$30 billion in capital, perhaps by cutting the dividend."

--Are you still with us? It's time for a short course in forensic finance. First, the crashing US House market leads to falling prices for mortgage-backed securities. Next, CDOs that contain mortgage-backed securities begin to fall. Indexes which track the CDO and asset-baked security market reflect these falling values. Ratings agencies get in the game by re-rating AA and AAA bonds…downward.

--That last phase-the re-rating of asset-backed commercial paper (http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maaixntabCru9bKUlEOeafpTkF/)- happened in mid-October. Only now is it filtering down to real-world consequences. Faced with falling asset values and a tight credit market, Citigroup, perhaps, turned to the only source of funding left in the market yesterday: the Fed.

--Will this chain of consequences lead to more collateral damage in financial stocks? And what about Australian financials? Today Westpac (ASX:WBC (http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maaixntabCrvabKUlEOeafpTkF/)) reported an annual profit of AU$3.45 billion. It was a 12.5% increase for the firm.

--Westpac's outgoing CEO Dr. David Morgan told investors, "The Australian economy is expected to remain robust, underpinned by continuing strong demand, both domestically and internationally, and historically low unemployment. As a result, demand for credit is expected to remain high with solid housing growth and continuing robust business investment."

--Yes. Selling money is a good business these days. Shares of St. George Bank (ASX:SGB (http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maaixntabCrvbbKUlEOeafpTkF/)) were up yesterday as the company announced that it too, was making record sums lending money to Australian businesses and individuals. The company reported a 13% rise in net profit to AU$1.16 billion.

--With credit growth running at nearly 16% according to the Reserve Bank's figures published earlier this week, the question is not if rates will rise next week, but by how much. The bank could choose to raise by a quarter point now and a quarter point later. Or could do the deed and raise by half a point now.

--Already it appears to be behind the inflation curve, which is surprising, given that its own index of commodity prices, published yesterday, shows that prices are way out of control.


http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/20071102DRZ.jpg

--Tomorrow is Friday in America. It's going to be black.

[STRAT]

And now over to Bill Bonner in France:

"Today's action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. "After this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth."

We guessed that the Fed would surprise us...and do nothing. But 91 out of 108 economists interviewed by Bloomberg were sure that they would choose a quarter-point rate cut. They were right; we were wrong.

Not that it matters. Financial officialdom has already made itself clear: they'll do whatever is necessary to keep this expansion going; the dollar be damned.

And so, the dollar was damned. Yesterday, it fell to another record low against the euro - it now takes more than US$1.45 to buy a euro. Ouch! Shortly after the euro appeared, in 1998, it sank as low as 88 cents. Now look at it. Americans in Europe have lost half their purchasing power in just seven years...most of it because of the falling dollar; the rest because of rising consumer prices. Americans in America have lost wealth too; they just don't know it yet.

Your poor editor is going to have to move to a cheaper place...a backward country where people don't expect to earn much money...where property prices are low...and where you can still get a cup of coffee for less than US$4. Hey, we can move back to the US!

In Killen, Texas, you can still get a nice house for US$150,000 - or less. In Paris or London, that kind of money will get you nothing. And housing prices in the United States are going down. That's what Alan Greenspan said. He told an audience that the housing problem was going to get worse before it got better. And he ought to know; more than anyone else, he caused it!

The latest Case-Shiller numbers tell us that housing is falling nationwide - as reported here yesterday. Guess where prices are falling most? In Tampa, Florida, where they're going down at a 10% annual rate. Next in line is Detroit, where prices are off 9.3%.

Overall, California leads the nation in house price declines...at a 5.7% statewide rate. The southern part of the state seems to be getting the worst of it; San Diego houses are down 8.3%.

Most likely, Greenspan is right; we've haven't seen the end, nor the worst, of the housing slump. Why? Because there are a lot of houses on offer...and few people with the money to buy them.

"America's big, fat housing inventory," is how Business Week describes it. There are 4.4 million houses on the market - a nine-year record. And it is taking three times as long to sell them as it did in 2005. You can do the maths later.

Naturally, mortgage defaults are rising. People get divorced. They wonder who will get to keep the family house. Then, they discover that the house is worth less than they paid for it...and less than they still owe on it...and neither one wants it. "I'm not paying that mortgage," says one. "You're not sticking me with that dump," says the other.

The Fed was getting mixed signals, says Bloomberg . On the one hand, the property situation is clearly bad. On the other hand, exports are rising...the stock market looks healthy...and consumers are still spending. It could have stood pat - but Wall Street wanted a cut. And who knows what financial catastrophes could be hidden in those derivative concoctions? If the Fed did not make a gesture to the financial industry, and something bad happened, it would get the blame. And why not? If the dollar continues to fall...well, isn't that good for US exporters?

The stock market celebrated with a healthy rise, up 137 points. But remember, dear reader, stocks are going up in Zimbabwe and Iraq too. We're in a worldwide asset boom that has a clear and obvious cause. The Economist puts the rate of price inflation on "all items" (otherwise known as consumer price inflation) at over 16% per year. But member banks can borrow money from the Fed for less than 5%. Again, you can do the maths later, dear reader.

Of course, as the US emits dollars, the rest of the world's nations emit their own paper...trying to keep up. What we are seeing in the currency markets is merely relative, but important, degrees of badness. One currency stinks. Another is rotten. A third is crummy. A fourth sucks. They are all going down...but some faster than others.

What they are going down against is the things that don't come out of printing presses or the imaginations of central bankers. According to the Economist, the average of these things... "all items"...is rising by more than 16% per year, against the dollar. But some things are rising even faster. Oil, for example. And gold.

Yesterday, the Fed spoke. And then, gold answered.

"We will not permit speculators to be crucified on a cross of strong dollars," said the feds.

"Then, give us gold," said investors.

Following the Fed's action gold rose over US$795 before the market closed. Then, the price shot up over US$800 in the aftermarket.

"Falling dollar could push gold to record high," says the Financial Times. Where have they been?

Here's good news, dear reader. The US economy grew at a 3.9% rate in the third quarter. Numbers don't lie, do they?

Ha! Numbers are the biggest liars on the planet.

Have you noticed how the whole world has been taken over by numbers? We live
with them every day. They seem so precise...so confident...so sure of themselves. The US economy did not grow "a little bit". It did not expand "slightly". It is not now just "somewhat larger" than it was a year ago. And it's not even growing at a 3% rate...or a 4% rate. It's growing at a 3.9% rate.

The older we get, the more suspicious of numbers we're becoming.

A man today knows his PIN number, his telephone number, often his fax number, his credit card number, his cholesterol number, his street number, his postcode...digits, digits, and more digits! He's likely to know batting averages of his favourite players...and how much his portfolio increased last year...not to mention the standard numbers of a general education - how many states are there, how many members of Congress, what is the boiling temperature of water, what is the speed of light...how many times can you get a speeding ticket in the state of Georgia before they take away your licence...and so forth.

Some of these numbers are useful. Many are empty frauds.

When the feds give us a number for GDP growth, for example, what does it mean? Why, it means the economy is expanding...growing...getting bigger. Oh...and what does that mean?

We apologise to long-suffering Daily Reckoning readers, but we will bring out a familiar example: If we cut our own lawn, the GDP is unchanged. If we hire a lawn-cutting service to do the work, the GDP expands. So, what does it really mean to say the GDP grows? In both cases, the end result is exactly the same: the grass has been cut. The only difference is that an amount of money - a number - has changed places, from our pocket to someone else's. The world has no more money. The world has no more goods or services. The world is unchanged. So what does GDP growth really mean? And how could a precise number - 3.9% - ever hope to describe what has really happened?

To make matters worse, government statisticians - and corporate ones too - typically "crunch" numbers into the shape they want. Numbers get punched, beaten, hammered, bullied, and bamboozled. When the torture session is over they'll admit to anything. That is how we get a "consumer price index" of only 3%...when everyone knows prices are rising a lot faster.

Finally, for today, we have come back to our house in France...for just a couple days of repose. It is the All Saints vacation in France - Toussaint - and families usually go back to wherever they are from and put chrysanthemums on their relatives' graves.

"I saw your Aunt Jacqueline's grave looked a little bare," said our faithful gardener last night, over a drink. "So, I put some pansies on it. The town was digging up pansies from the square. They were just going to throw them away. So I got some and put them on her grave. I don't like to see bare graves at Toussaint."

And some bad news...

"We're going to have to slaughter Nigeria," said the farmer next door.

Nigeria is a prize-winning Limousine bull. He's a very big, handsome animal...with such rippling muscles; he looks as though he was designed by a butcher. And he's been happily doing his work here for years. But everything comes to an end, sooner or later - all bulls too.

"Well, he's old...and he's gone a little lame. Still, he could still be useful, but there's a new fever that has somehow gotten into the cattle population in France. Everywhere they find it, they impose a quarantine. And now it's around here. Normally, we would be able to sell Nigeria to another farm. He's probably good for a year or two. But he's already inseminated all the cows here. And if we keep using him, they'll be too interbred. So we have to sell him on. But because of the quarantine - which is ridiculous because the malady isn't infectious - we don't have the right to move any animals. And if we don't sell Nigeria to the butcher now, a year from now we might not be able to sell him at all."

Poor old Nigeria.

[Heavy Metal]

Strat, in future please disclose where you get these stories from. If they had come from reputable website written by paid journos, then I would take notice. But looks as if they are from dailyreckoning, a well known doom and gloom website that has been preaching 'the end is nigh' from day one. Same old rehashed stories written in an amateurish format that should be taken at face value and used for entertainment purposes only.

[STRAT]

Fair enough Lemmy, I thought it was entertaining and it was from the site you refer to

[Heavy Metal]

Fair enough Lemmy, I thought it was entertaining and it was from the site you refer to

Entertaining and inadvertently funny, o Strato. But obviously not from the BBC or WSJ or even remotely neutral. These stories are from unpaid bloggers with vested interests in peddling doom and gloom.

Cheers

Lemmy

[STRAT]

Entertaining and inadvertently funny, o Strato. But obviously not from the BBC or WSJ or even remotely neutral. These stories are from unpaid bloggers with vested interests in peddling doom and gloom.

Cheers

LemmyIm not sure any form of media is all that reliable in this day and age plus I thought there were a few relevant and poignant remarks in the articles :D

PS Love the bass mate but the vocals need work IMO :eek::cool:

[JBmurc]

JB What is a Bear Warrant? Who is CWA?
Sounds like a good CYA policy.


CWA=Commodity Warrants Australia

Just got an account setup last week-

Bear Warrants This is a Warrant that will make money in a falling market but risk only a fixed amount in a rising or static market.




A Warrant is an investment product that gives the investor price exposure to an asset (e.g. a commodity) without having to deal with the physical asset itself.


all the imfo here-
----http://www.cwa.net.au/public/pages.php?id=47

[spruik]

Strat, in future please disclose where you get these stories from. If they had come from reputable website written by paid journos, then I would take notice. But looks as if they are from dailyreckoning, a well known doom and gloom website that has been preaching 'the end is nigh' from day one. Same old rehashed stories written in an amateurish format that should be taken at face value and used for entertainment purposes only.

Yeah Strat, I now suffer from nightmares and dream of spooks and weird boogiemen all night long... all because of your scary stories!!! :(

Might even consider suicide... :mad:

[Mick100]

I agree with previous posters - don't post that daily reckoning crap on this forum - it makes me sick to see people making a living out of scaring naive investors :mad:

[Heavy Metal]

PS Love the bass mate but the vocals need work IMO :eek::cool:

Hey screw you it took decades of substance abuse to perfect these vocals and anyway I'm over 60 and still pulling the chicks :cool:, that's all that counts.

Lemmy

[Heavy Metal]

Yeah Strat, I now suffer from nightmares and dream of spooks and weird boogiemen all night long... all because of your scary stories!!! :(

Might even consider suicide... :mad:

I'm surprised you even sleep at night....

[Huang Chung]

Couldn't find anything going really cheap today (except maybe AFG), so my wallet stayed closed.

Lets see if the US jobs report tonight will present us with some opportunities come Monday.

[STRAT]

Damn, youre a sensitive and grumpy lot.:eek: and Lemmy, just a wind up, mate Im actually a fan;) You are the ace of spades in my book :cool: It would be an honour to play with you and I would jump at the chance ya old bastard:D

[spruik]

Strat, yes I sleep at night and I'm also over 60. And I would play bass guitar with you... if I can find the thing as it's been 40 years since my prime... used to pull in lots of chicks those days but no need now as wify is very good. :)

[doon]

What alot of c***, I thought these forums were to talk about stocks? If you want to have a little chat to your mates why don't you pick up the telephone or talk by email, don't clog up these forums with your idle chatter. Waste of time me having email alerts on these forums only to get to this nonsense!

[Heavy Metal]

What alot of c***, I thought these forums were to talk about stocks? If you want to have a little chat to your mates why don't you pick up the telephone or talk by email, don't clog up these forums with your idle chatter. Waste of time me having email alerts on these forums only to get to this nonsense!

Now look what you've done Strato by posting crap in the first place. Snake eyes watching you... and don't forget the Joker....

[spruik]

Sorry doon... my humblest apologies :o. It's all strat's fault.

[Huang Chung]

Good US jobs report just released. US futures heading higher.

Looks like our biggish drop today will be reversed on Monday.

[winner69]

This could have easily have come from dailyreckoning but heck it is in The Age .... a Fairfax paper .... so it must be true

Adventures of a vulture capitalist selling short on Citi

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/adventures-of-a-vulture-capitalist-selling-short-on-citi/2007/11/02/1193619147595.html

Sorry Doon .... not for you ... a waste of time

[sparrow]

Friday in the US - Dow holds firm , ends day slightly up.

Gold hits $800.

Bae metals firm, except copper, down slightly on rising stocks.

Two more sleeps before Monday

[spruik]

Black November
Ouzilly, France - Melbourne, Australia
Friday, 2 November 2007
In This Issue:The trouble with financial stocks...




--Tomorrow is Friday in America. It's going to be black.





Strat, we have proof the story was all CR*P and scaremongering. Dow up.

[hero]

Strat, we have proof the story was all CR*P and scaremongering. Dow up.

So true. But they still succeeded in ripping shares off the more gullible. Look at the middle of the day 'crash'.

[Bilo]

Dow up. Europe flat and down. Hong Kong was down 3pc. Hardly the stuff that would tease this bear out of his cave....or stop a raging bull in its tracks...

The gold price indicates the uncertainty...someone pulling the puppets strings made a lot of money.

A dead cat bounce.....we'll be first to have another look when this part of the world has another lick on Monday. Doubt whether there will be much to add before then.

I think fishing could be a good activity, or some where else away from the markets, for a few days.

[STRAT]

So true. But they still succeeded in ripping shares off the more gullible. Look at the middle of the day 'crash'.Hi Hero, not so sure gulible is the word . Lets face it every time this happens its a 50/50 call and all those day traders have to make a call and choose a side before the end of the day. If everyone got it right all the time no body would win. Im as pleased as the rest of you with events over night cause I didnt sell anything on Friday. Mind you didnt buy anything either. I suppose thats sitting on the fence but then Im not a day trader. Go MHL :D

Doon, this is an open forum, not a treatise, get over yourself

[STRAT]

I agree with previous posters - don't post that daily reckoning crap on this forum - it makes me sick to see people making a living out of scaring naive investors :mad:Mick, with respect that wasnt my intention. I wont post from said web site again mainly because they obviously have such little credability with so many of you but its hardly the first post of this nature on this thread.

[hero]

Hi Hero, not so sure gulible is the word . Lets face it every time this happens its a 50/50 call and all those day traders have to make a call and choose a side before the end of the day. If everyone got it right all the time no body would win.

Strat, I was being a tad provocative. I am sure you are right as far as most traders are concerned. However, there will always be some inexperienced and nervous traders/investors who are panicked by that sort of doomsday press. The writers and their greedy intentions just p1ss me off.

[spruik]

:cool: Me thinks we should close all stock exchanges for annual holidays (at least 6 months of the year), so some people get a holiday from worrying...

Shorter trading hours, like 3 hours per day. Saves wear on our monitors and more time for more useful things. I'm sure we can do a days work in 3 hours.

Shorter trading weeks, like Mondays and Tuesdays only. No need for the other days and all of us can think of better things to do... and Huang Chung doesn't miss out so much.

[Mick100]

Mick, with respect that wasnt my intention. I wont post from said web site again mainly because they obviously have such little credability with so many of you but its hardly the first post of this nature on this thread.

Strat - I wasn't reffering to you with my comment "making a living out of scaring people" I was reffering to the dailyreeckoning crowd
I'v had first hand experience with these people - I subcribed to one of their tip sheets for a while (cost USD 1000 pa) when I first started trading commodities - believe me nearly 100% of these "know it all chap's" reccomended trades were losers. It was a costly experience for me.
They are in this business of "scaring people" simply to line their own pockets.

[tricha]

Good US jobs report just released. US futures heading higher.

Looks like our biggish drop today will be reversed on Monday.


Employment boost for US economy

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44159000/jpg/_44159024_usjobsap203jpg.jpg Jobs figures are a crucial barometer of the economy's health

The number of new jobs created in the US leapt dramatically in October with employers adding 166,000 posts, twice the expected number.
The surprise growth in jobs suggests the US economy remains robust in the face of a housing slump, credit crunch and high oil prices, analysts said.
Separate data showed orders placed at US factories edged up 0.2% in September - having dropped 3.5% in August.
This was much better than the predicted 0.4% month-on-month decline.
Still hiring
Job gains were prominent in the professional services sector as well as in education and health care, the Labor department said with increases in these areas offsetting losses in manufacturing and construction.
But with unemployment steady at 4.7% in October, it appears that the overall economy may be holding up well, observers said.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif The wheels aren't coming off the economy http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Ken Mayland, Clear View Economics


The employment situation in the US is seen as crucial to how well it weathers its financial difficulties.
"Businesses have not clammed up on the hiring scene as some feared," said Ken Mayland, of Clear View Economics.
"The wheels aren't coming off the economy."
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein economist Kevin Logan said that not too much attention should be paid to the growth in factory orders.
"These numbers are really just background noise," he argued. "Everybody is focused on financial market problems and that is what is dominating the financial markets themselves. "The stock market is worried about potentially bad news emanating from the financial sector and the bond market reflects that as well."

[Tok3n]

Anyone want to take a stab at guessing the bottom for some of those mega multinational financials on the Dow? :)

e.g. CitiGroup etc?

[winner69]

Crash is coming: Warns top investor


THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/crash-is-coming-warns-top-investor/2007/11/03/1193619205908.html

In a reputable paper ... no dailyreckoning crap here .... so must be true

[spruik]

More scaremongering stuff. These people should get their mouths taped up with ducktape.

[STRAT]

Strat - I wasn't reffering to you with my comment "making a living out of scaring people" I was reffering to the dailyreeckoning crowd
I'v had first hand experience with these people - I subcribed to one of their tip sheets for a while (cost USD 1000 pa) when I first started trading commodities - believe me nearly 100% of these "know it all chap's" reccomended trades were losers. It was a costly experience for me.
They are in this business of "scaring people" simply to line their own pockets.Thanks Mick, Good to know ;)

[hero]

Crash is coming: Warns top investor


THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/crash-is-coming-warns-top-investor/2007/11/03/1193619205908.html

In a reputable paper ... no dailyreckoning crap here .... so must be true

"must be true". That's a laugh. The Age, just like the muck-raking press, needs to sell papers as well. They're just a little more subtle in their distortions.

This article is just a typical beat-up. Some fund manager gets into panic mode - so it must be A STORY. (Perhaps he just needs to retire and go fishing).

If you read the article, you also find that Shane Oliver (chief economist and head of strategic investments at AMP Capital Investors) "agreed that after the strong run, the Australian sharemarket was due for a correction, but said, despite the more volatile market and further expected problems in the US financial system, he believed "the conditions are just not there for a crash".

So, the Age, could just have easily have gone for this headline:

"The conditions are just not there for a crash". But that is not as newsworthy (read sensational) as "Crash is coming: Warns top investor"

Shame that the same distortions and sensationalism finds its way to these pages.

[Heavy Metal]

Crash is coming: Warns top investor


THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/crash-is-coming-warns-top-investor/2007/11/03/1193619205908.html

In a reputable paper ... no dailyreckoning crap here .... so must be true

So let's dig a bit deeper and have a look at Leo "the crash is coming" de Bever's credentials as CIO of Victoria Fund Management Corporation (VFMC) to make make such comments:

1. As guardian of public money, VFMC has probably got a mandate to minimise risk. This is reflected in FUM perfomance.

2. VFMC's performance has been mediocre at best over the long term. Or perhaps we could use more friendly terms to describe the performance as "conservative" or "index hugging".

3. Since de Bever took over as CIO a year ago, VFMC's funds, particularly equities, have underperformed.

4. VFMC has been under political pressure to disclose its exposure to the US subprime fallout.

Do I detect some political face saving measure here by someone in charge of a large pool of public money that has recently been in the public spotlight for exposure to risky assets? Forward looking comments made by someone whose funds have underperformed on his watch? Someone who lacks the credentials to make such comments????

[shasta]

I urge you all to have a look at the "Market Perspective" thread on the NZX, as Phaedrus has again kindly posted a chart showing the DOW.

Now i want you all to change the terminology from...

"Market Crash" to "Buying Opportunity".

The Sharetrader site is as a classic example of herd mentality, anyone remember the "August meltdown" that was going to turn the market over to the bears?

Now its a distant blip on the screen & the ASX in particular has recovered all losses & back up near all time highs etc.

If someone told me the likes of ADY would go sub 50c (& stay there for as long as it has) even after a series of great anns, i'd be questioning there mental health!

The DOW was up Friday, so expect the ASX to recover back Fridays drop.

Once again the herd mentality of the ASX market drove all prices down, over shooting the mark, now watch it do the opposite...

All the US needs is yet another interest rate cut from the Fed's, some good employment figures & the DOW will keep on keeping on...

[jdg]

i'm really surprised by today's weakness on the ASX. it's currently dropping like a stone and down about 90 points. after friendly news out of the US i was expecting the ASX to bounce off friday's big sell off. i'll put my neck out and predict that the ASX will slowly track up from here and end not too far from even.
-j

[trendy]

STOP PRESS: CITI CEO has resigned and they are going to write off another $11b


http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=fundsFundsNews&storyID=2007-11-04T235202Z_01_WEN2350_RTRIDST_0_CITIGROUP-SUBPRIME-TEXT.XML

[jdg]

well spotted, trendy. that maybe somewhat of an anchor on my prediction...
-j

[STRAT]

i'm really surprised by today's weakness on the ASX. it's currently dropping like a stone and down about 90 points. after friendly news out of the US i was expecting the ASX to bounce off friday's big sell off. i'll put my neck out and predict that the ASX will slowly track up from here and end not too far from even.
-jGee, my watch list is a sea of blue :eek:

[Capitalist]

STOP PRESS: CITI CEO has resigned and they are going to write off another $11b


http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=fundsFundsNews&storyID=2007-11-04T235202Z_01_WEN2350_RTRIDST_0_CITIGROUP-SUBPRIME-TEXT.XML

Resigned? He should be hung, drawn, and quartered.

[soulman]

I find it weird that CEO in corporate America is still a bunch if liar. Just mentioned the most biggest possible loss in the sub-prime, let their share price drop to what they deserve and when things become clearer, any profit upgrade or the announcement of less losses than expected will push the share price north again. Crooks never last. If they are lying not to get fired, well it didn't work. And now your reputation are gone. Just take your $100 mil golden handshake and retire.

I thought the market will be steady today but I could see the financials dropping today due to the Citi and BOA losses. If the miners fell, the resultant drop would just be like the drop today.

[jdg]

yeah, the citigroup news has stuffed my prediction of an afternoon comeback. of course, the DOW will take this news hard - it has tanked on all significant subprime disclosures - and thus that negativity will hit the ASX tomorrow. a double dose. great.
-j

[wack]

Feels as if "sub" news is dripped in a controlled and measured way.
.
Another Fed rate cut anybody?

[jdg]

well the DOW didn't react to job growth double what was forecast, preferring to see it as a negative thing because it added weight to the argument against further Fed cuts. maybe Citigroup will be seen as a cut catalyst. to be honest, i think the Fed are probably done for now unless something truly spectacular happens.
-j

[soulman]

The drop today in ASX is in sympathy for the expected future drop of the US. Nevertheless, we could always drop again tomorrow. Technically, we are due but then again this could spell trouble.

[sparrow]

Gee, my watch list is a sea of blue :eek:

Guess it's not so blue now

Strange day E.G. BRW shot up 4c but now down 2c

[pago]

hi ,isee a shallow correction soon ,this week or next,probably starting this week,of about 5% maybe 7%,or more,too early to say but theres a correction on the odds,then maybe we will get a better run,but with heaps of volitility,cheers pago.

[STRAT]

Guess it's not so blue now

Strange day E.G. BRW shot up 4c but now down 2cLOL too true, finnished the day about 50/50

[shane_m]

not much going to happen today boys, its a big horse race today. I put few bets on the horses rather than ASX.

[Viking]

I do feel that the drop in the last few days were a form of respect to the Big Bro, US Stock Market. But after we have shown that respect, we should lift our hats and wave goodbye to their doom and groom~ and went on the ASX way~

This is only my personal sentiment~ :) we will see what happens next~

[Seti]

Crash is coming warns Victoria's top investor - http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/03/1193619205908.html?s_rid=www:top5

[spruik]

Crash is coming: Warns top investor


THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/crash-is-coming-warns-top-investor/2007/11/03/1193619205908.html

In a reputable paper ... no dailyreckoning crap here .... so must be true

Familiar article?

[shane_m]

dow down big time, this Friday afternoon seems a good accumulation time.

[Huang Chung]

Looks like being an ugly day fellas. Dow down 371, S&P 500 down 45.

Topped up on my Prairie Downs holding only yesterday. Damn!

Holliday to Hawaii coming up, so probably a good day to grab my USD spending money. :D

[Viking]

me too~ topped up few stocks in the last couple of days~
guess just had to take it on the chin for a while~

[shane_m]

are you sleeping? market down to 2500 !!!
Few of my stop losses got hit.

Friday should be another -ve run.

I will be be aggressively buying more oilers.

[Viking]

no~ me not sleeping~
fainted~

[Dazza]

Brought some EQN at 560 today....

[Viking]

Interesting pick Dazza~
but I though $5.60 is quite a high price for this one wouldn't it be for now?
though their 6.3Mt of copper and 21.9Mlbs of uranium seems quite a good deposit to sit on at the moment :)
would you enlighten me of your move into this one at $5.60 please~ because I have been looking at this one, thinking perhaps with the current instability I might get a bargin at $5 hehehe (wishful thinking maybe) :P but when Aug drop occurred they were only trading in mid $3's

[STRAT]

Is it my imagination or has the ASX being less and less affected by drops in the DOW ower the last few months?

[Hommel]

That's my impression too Strat. Each time the DOW drops the ASX and NZX react less and less. But I suspect if the Dow drops for a few days in a row without bouncing then ASX and NZX would drop significantly. The markets are very "jumpy" at the moment as we know that the US economy is really in trouble but we don't really know how it will affect AU and NZ this time round. My feeling is that our economies are stronger than ever before and are going to be less affected by a US recession than they may have been 10 or 20 years ago. BUT we don't really know for sure. Myself, I have days where I feel like just going to cash apart from a few of my shares that I am 100% confident in. Haven't done it yet though - holding about 15% cash.

[Viking]

Feels like today gonna be one of those crazy day~ man~
Some pay big bucks~ some catch big bargin~ :D

[Scuffer]

Get the same feelings of selling and just having cash, then sit back and wait, haven't done it yet and probably won't just keep buying is my advice and weather any storm the sun always shines somewhere eventually.

[Dazza]

viking i brought my first lot at 4 and got some 3.8 for my old man.

then it went to 4.50 and i was like nar nar nar all good ill await a bit for $4.

then it went to 5... and im like nar nar ill wait for 4.50

then 5.50........ then 6.....
i was like argggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggh

so when i saw it dip 5% yesturday, bang 5.60 im in again.

my avg is $5 now, but i dun mind.

EQN = my next company to be taken over IMO.

ur looking at a low cost copper miner, for sure its in africa... but look at the country.... the big boys are very keen to get their ****s there asap

u got china looking, the american copper companies etc etc.

IMO $10 take over possibly.

And so far everything is in line

mind you, if they do an AGM or CMR on me, im out :D

[winner69]

Just saw a guy on CNBC or whatever it was say the Dow will be up to 15,000 by Christmas

On TV so must be true ... things will be OK

Cheers

[spruik]

Just saw a guy on CNBC or whatever it was say the Dow will be up to 15,000 by Christmas

On TV so must be true ... things will be OK

Cheers

Must be true indeed when it was on TV! :) I get the feeling that the next few days is a good time to stock up on interest rate sensitive stocks (long term view).

Not a time to "cash up" when Mr Fear is around.

[winner69]

Great buying on the US large caps ...... growth has become value or something along those lines .... they say .... (except the big C)

[ratkin]

forget stocks , commodities are the way to go........

I am buying into Coconut as it said Osama Bin Laden
has got a $25 Million Bounty on his head!

[spruik]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average started another secondary correction, after breaking 13500, and is headed for a test of primary support at 12800. The double top (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/double_tops.htm) has no great significance unless primary support is penetrated, which would then signal reversal of the primary trend.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071110_djiaa_w.png

Short Term: Thursday's long tail and large volume indicate strong buying support. Bargain hunters were overwhelmed on Friday, but may reappear between 13000 and 12800.


http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071110_djiaa.png

[Bilo]

Thanks Spruik
It doesn't look at all hopeful from my cave. I agree that there has appeared to be a lesser dependence of the ASX on the DOW but that could mean that there will be a growing influence from China. And that bubble will burst.

One assumes that the huge amount of money lent by central banks will need to be repaid sometime so either stockmarkets will go down or inflation will increase or probably, both will occur.

With the now almost certainty of inflation increasing around the world one might expect gold to go up, but even gold isn't getting a clean run as volatility increases everywhere.

[spruik]

Subprime Turmoil Continues

By Colin Twiggs
November 15, 2007 3:00 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. AET)
In an attempt to make our newsletters more readable we will trial splitting the weekly coverage in two: gold, oil and forex on Tuesdays; the economy and interest rates on Thursdays. Please give us your feedback when we survey readers after a few weeks.

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm).
Stock Markets (mhtml:mid://00000709/#summary)

The Dow respected support at 13000, but the sharp retracement, far from being a positive sign, is typical of a reaction in a down-trend. A second successful test of 13000 would be a bullish sign, while a close below 12800 would signal that the primary trend has reversed.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071115_djiaa.png
The Shanghai Composite found support at 5000 and is now retracing to test resistance at 5500. Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal distribution, warning that the secondary correction may not yet be over.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071115_ssec.png
The Australian All Ordinaries has held up better than both China and the US, but is now forming a broadening top pattern. A failed up-swing (partial rise) would warn of a downward breakout and a test of primary support at 5650. The pattern is only valid after two clear peaks and two clear troughs, however, and the second trough needs a few more days to be certain.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071115_xao.png

[whiteheron]

Get your mops out folks --- there will be plenty of blood to clean up today !!

[shane_m]

few more days till election this Saturday.. Jonny is predicted to loose, so more blood on the floor ...

[jdg]

hey shane, here's an article on what the election may mean to the markets - it concludes that a labour victory should have minimal effect.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/moves-in-us-economy-trump-election-for-market-attention/2007/11/18/1195321606360.html

what's more certain is that we need some respite from these subprime issues. a couple of signals that the worst has passed would be nice, and some recovery in the US housing/building sectors would be even better. when the first wave of subprime came in august i cashed up half my holdings just before the carnage. since then i've fully invested again. while i'm a chunk off my highs of very early this month, i'm well up on where i was before this mess began in august (all-in-all it's been an absolutely superb year). at this stage i'm planning to hold out against this current storm and hope for the christmas climb.

-j

[fihr]

Is there usually a "christmas climb"? (I hope so!)

However, I read some time ago that another batch of sub prime mortgages in the US are due to exit their honeymoon period in January 2008. My bet is there will be another bout of sub prime in January, as unless their losses are actually quantifiable, sub prime lenders will be reluctant to announce future losses until they happen. So I don't think the jitters will be out of the system for a while. If the US looks like going into recession, this could be quite dire. But if the US economy has a more optimistic outlook by then, it should not be as bad as the last time, since some expectations must be already factored in.

[jdg]

christmas is traditionally a good time for stocks. i think that is more than psychological - more money pumping around the economy, perhaps. the common mantra is that the bears have thanksgiving and the bulls have christmas (so far the former is true...). no mention of turkeys - but subprime could yet make turkeys of us all. consumer spending over the holidays may well be the key to recession/no recession. i tend to agree with you, fihr, it's not over yet, but as long as we're over the hump i'm happy.
-j

[FlyingJack]

Get your mops out folks --- there will be plenty of blood to clean up today !!

you hit the nail on the head there, but how did you know?

[whiteheron]

If you review the happenings on the American and European markets together with the metals prices overnight then you usually get a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen on the NZX and ASX the half day later

Happens virtually all the time, far too frequently to be a coincidence

[STRAT]

Get your mops out folks --- there will be plenty of blood to clean up today !!Not for holders of TEX and BOW.

Im not one of em but:(

[whiteheron]

Today (Wednesday) should be much improved

Yesterdays blood has been cleaned up , at least temporarily

Funny things markets, day to day so much based on short term factors with NZ and Aussie following the rest of the world from overnight

This (volatility) can be used to your advantage of course

[soulman]

Hi Whiteheron,

Yes, it was a less massacre but red nevertheless. It seems all the other world market has gone down and if we followed, we should be much lower. Interesting times ahead. Who here are currently buying and in which sector?

[spruik]

Hi Whiteheron,

Yes, it was a less massacre but red nevertheless. It seems all the other world market has gone down and if we followed, we should be much lower. Interesting times ahead. Who here are currently buying and in which sector?

I have been buying (adding to) in the XPJ sector (GPT and ABP late today). The rest is hold hold and hold.

Looks like the XAO is breaking it's support line at 6450, bums are too heavy!

[soulman]

Hi Spruik,

The support line has not been broken. In actual fact, it's on it right now. However, if there is red tomorrow, then it will be broken. However, as seen in mid August, the line was broken significantly but it quickly went back to the trend line within days.

I have been buying lately but I do feel I am holding too much stock ATM (about 18). Most of them are in the ASX 100. It just seems Australia is doing much better than their counterpart in those credit and sub-prime woes. But the world revolve around the US and I would rather have those losses out in the open sooner rather than later. I hope all have been factored in already.

[ratkin]

High aussie dollar starting to hit bottom lines now. ABC Learning the latest.

[Mick100]

Who here are currently buying and in which sector?

I'v done quite a bit of buying sice mid august - mainly in the ag commodities/aquaculture and precoious metals sectors

I'm feeling bullish - have done for some time, although I think the next 2-3 weeks will be choppy
I find it comforting to see so much uneasinness in the markets at the moment
I get nervous when everyone else is bullish
2008 is shaping up to be an excellent yr - particuarly for precious metals;)
.

[shane_m]

I am holding only oilers, looking at buying more after the election results ...

ASX whats up? up 100 down 100 like a yoyo :D

[OutToLunch]

I find it comforting to see so much uneasinness in the markets at the moment
I get nervous when everyone else is bullish
.

Good point Mick and I agree totally. It's healthy to see fear in the marketplace with plenty of bad news coming out. There are choppy times ahead for sure, but we can be reasonably confident that over-exuberance (and hence overinflated share prices and therefore lower future returns) is less of a problem when everyone's running scared. If the markets were still charging ahead without any correction we'd have more reason to worry about a full-blown crash.

I think things will turn for the better once the major banks/financial instos have come clean about the full extent of their losses (presume this will happen during the next year). Until then, speculation and uncertainty about the magnitude of the US mortgage problem should keep a lid on things for a while yet. Chuck in record oil prices and we will have very interesting times ahead -- but also some great buying opportunities.

[spruik]

With DOW breaking 12800 it don't look so hot.

Or maybe today will be the bottom of bottoms (until the next bottom).

[shane_m]

market down 5% from the all time highs we saw few weeks back. I reckon its wait and see time now, you don't want to miss time the ball like Michael Papps.

[shasta]

I am holding only oilers, looking at buying more after the election results ...

ASX whats up? up 100 down 100 like a yoyo :D

How cheap is PSA looking huh?

Got stopped out, but shall be back...

[spruik]

Recession Warning

By Colin Twiggs
November 22, 2007 2:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET)
These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm).
Dow Under Threat (mhtml:mid://00001408/#summary)

The Dow is testing primary support at 12800; failure of this level (a close below 12800) would signal a primary down-trend. We might see a a few days of consolidation above the support level, but I am convinced that the economy is headed for a recession — and will take the stock market along with it.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djiaa.png
In a larger time frame, there is a clear breakout below the long-term trend channel, while Twiggs Money Flow shows a large bearish divergence.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djiaa_w.png
The Dow Jones Transport index started a primary down-trend after breaking support at 4700; so a Dow Industrial close below 12800 would signal the start of a bear market. Fedex, often a lead indicator for the general index, has also dived after breaking long-term support at $100.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djtaa.png
If you buy the line that "This time it's different because of China", and believe that other markets will not be as badly affected, ask yourself: "Who is China's biggest customer — who do they sell most of their manufactured goods to?"

A Shanghai Composite fall below 5000 would signal that the secondary correction is likely to continue.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_ssec.png
The Yield Curve (mhtml:mid://00001408/#yield_curve)


The yield curve remains our most accurate tool for predicting recessions. The only problem is that signals can occur 12 to 18 months in advance of a down-turn — leaving plenty of time for doubts to grow as the market keeps rising.

Here is an update of the chart published on January 10, 2007.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_yield_curve.png
Every time there has been a significant rise in short-term interest rates over the last 45 years, a recession has followed — except on those rare occasions where long-term rates have shown a corresponding rise, maintaining a positive yield curve. In a nutshell: whenever the yield spread (maroon line) falls to zero, a recession follows.
My conclusion from the January 2007 newsletter (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-01-10_big_picture.htm) still stands: It is likely, however, that we will witness a market down-turn in the next 12 months. We will need to remain vigilant throughout 2007 -- particularly in October, the start of several previous down-turns.





Read More.... (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_ffr_cp_rates.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_tnx.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#spreads)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_wright.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#wright)Commercial Paper Spreads Warn of Further Upheaval (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)Sharp Fall in 10-Year Treasury Yields (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#spreads)Wright Model (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#wright)


There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

~ John Kenneth Galbraith.

[shasta]

Recession Warning

By Colin Twiggs
November 22, 2007 2:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET)
These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm).
Dow Under Threat (mhtml:mid://00001408/#summary)

The Dow is testing primary support at 12800; failure of this level (a close below 12800) would signal a primary down-trend. We might see a a few days of consolidation above the support level, but I am convinced that the economy is headed for a recession — and will take the stock market along with it.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djiaa.png
In a larger time frame, there is a clear breakout below the long-term trend channel, while Twiggs Money Flow shows a large bearish divergence.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djiaa_w.png
The Dow Jones Transport index started a primary down-trend after breaking support at 4700; so a Dow Industrial close below 12800 would signal the start of a bear market. Fedex, often a lead indicator for the general index, has also dived after breaking long-term support at $100.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_djtaa.png
If you buy the line that "This time it's different because of China", and believe that other markets will not be as badly affected, ask yourself: "Who is China's biggest customer — who do they sell most of their manufactured goods to?"

A Shanghai Composite fall below 5000 would signal that the secondary correction is likely to continue.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_ssec.png
The Yield Curve (mhtml:mid://00001408/#yield_curve)


The yield curve remains our most accurate tool for predicting recessions. The only problem is that signals can occur 12 to 18 months in advance of a down-turn — leaving plenty of time for doubts to grow as the market keeps rising.

Here is an update of the chart published on January 10, 2007.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_yield_curve.png
Every time there has been a significant rise in short-term interest rates over the last 45 years, a recession has followed — except on those rare occasions where long-term rates have shown a corresponding rise, maintaining a positive yield curve. In a nutshell: whenever the yield spread (maroon line) falls to zero, a recession follows.
My conclusion from the January 2007 newsletter (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-01-10_big_picture.htm) still stands: It is likely, however, that we will witness a market down-turn in the next 12 months. We will need to remain vigilant throughout 2007 -- particularly in October, the start of several previous down-turns.





Read More.... (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_ffr_cp_rates.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_tnx.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#spreads)http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_wright.png (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#wright)Commercial Paper Spreads Warn of Further Upheaval (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#yields)Sharp Fall in 10-Year Treasury Yields (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#spreads)Wright Model (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-11-22_yields.htm#wright)


There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

~ John Kenneth Galbraith.

Add in about the $US400bn sub prime problem & we have market meltdown? :D

The bears are coming, the sky is falling!

Hmmm, how about we are half way thru the biggest resource boom ever!

Oil around $US100bbl, gold climbing anyone?

I love these "buying opportunities" & i hate having cash sitting around earning a lousy 5% interest in a CMA.

[spruik]

Shasta, I thought the bears were already here and the sky already fell down.

Most of what I hold is (very) long term property related. I'll buy more as they get really cheap.

[soulman]

Wall Street closing tonight and I suspect maybe cheers the day after their thanks giving holiday. London has already started positively, thanks to the Dow not trading.

The thing about any correction in China, that inevitable and Hang Seng getting smashed right now, that's also bound to happen. The HK market was rocketing to 31,000 real quick and now come down as swiftly plus more. Shanghai has gone up triple digit in the last 2 years and that's not sustainable. I suspect Mr Buffet has already shorting the main stock indices in China.

And the Dow, uncertainty will only create more volatility.

[spruik]

Another view...
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliStoryPage.asp?PageID={5428441C-C6AC-4681-84D7-344C3E28B08F}&Section=RudisMessage

[_Michael]

while quite right on the wall street terminology - one could also argue that the nikkei has been in a bear market for about 17 years now given it has yet to recover even 50% of its late eighties glory/madness....! If you've ever worked for a large Japanese coprporation its pretty clear why, while very disciplined and process driven, they make absolutely terrible investments!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

:cool:

[spruik]

Alas, mankind may return to living in caves again... each to themselves, no investments, market indices (if any left) all zero...

Right now there aren't enough caves of course but mother nature will take care of that (matching families to caves that is).

http://www.verplak.net/cool_upsidedown.gif

[JBmurc]

while quite right on the wall street terminology - one could also argue that the nikkei has been in a bear market for about 17 years now given it has yet to recover even 50% of its late eighties glory/madness....! If you've ever worked for a large Japanese coprporation its pretty clear why, while very disciplined and process driven, they make absolutely terrible investments!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

:cool:

I'm sure I read in the Sunday Times recently an Analyst believe the NZX hadn't really recovered from the 87 crash -But if you look a NZ property which is at the top of its cycle IMHO yields of 4%-5% doesn't it show how NZ'er find property far more appealing while great stocks with massive growth & high yeilds battle for investor funds.

[_Michael]

yep - kiwis definitely have a preference for bricks and mortar, not me though, or you i'm picking!

[soulman]

A technical rebound. Stonger than expected, probably because of RIO and BHP. Actually a lot of other shares hasn't rally as strong as the material sector which rose more than 4%.

What will the US market do tonight?

[tricha]

A technical rebound. Stonger than expected, probably because of RIO and BHP. Actually a lot of other shares hasn't rally as strong as the material sector which rose more than 4%.

What will the US market do tonight?

Hmm, I do not have a crystal ball, but all I will say is it will go up at the start and then it is anyones guess :rolleyes:. As long as it goes down in a controlled manner it is Ok.

I retain 25% cash at the moment. Sometimes I think 50% would be wiser the way the scary market is performing at the moment.

[spruik]

Maybe this guy gets it right... :eek: Dow below 12800 again.


Strong Risk Of A Crash

By Colin Twiggs
November 24, 12:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. AET)
These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm).
USA (mhtml:mid://00000873/#usa)

The Yield Curve Revisited (mhtml:mid://00000873/#yield_curve)


Earlier in the week I published a recession warning based on behavior of the yield curve over the past 12 months. Every time there has been a significant rise in short-term interest rates over the last 45 years, and the yield differential (maroon line) falls to zero, a recession follows.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071122_yield_curve.png
The flat or negative yield curve squeezes bank interest margins, causing a tightening of credit and a consequent slow-down of consumer spending and new investment — which drags the economy into a recession.
Some readers may doubt the ability of the yield curve to precipitate a recession and instead blame extraordinary events such as the Gulf War (1991) and collapse of the dotcom tech bubble (2001). In the interests of fostering a wider debate on the forum (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/6/1280461.html), I will attempt to briefly address these issues here.

Wars create uncertainty and can push the economy into a recession if they are seen as a serious threat to the country, as in WW1 and WW2, but smaller conflicts have a more stimulatory effect due to increased defense spending. Edward Leamer (http://blog.inman.com/LeamerHousingandBusinessCycle.pdf), professor of economics at UCLA, points out that defense spending on the Korean War rescued the economy from recession in 1951 and the Vietnam War performed a similar service in 1967. These are the only two times since 1946 that a housing collapse has not led to a full-blown recession. There is similarly no evidence to suggest that the Gulf War caused the recession in 1991.
The US economy has proved itself resilient to one-off shocks like the collapse of LTCM in 1998; 9/11 in 2001 (the 2001 recession started in March and ended November according to the NBER (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html)); the collapse of Enron in 2004; and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Similarly, the slow-down in computer software and hardware investment after Y2K would not on its own have caused a recession in 2001.To cause a recession, a localized shock (such as the dotcom crash) needs to find a vector to spread the contagion thoughout the economy; in much the same way that a virus outbreak may cause an epidemic. The banking system provides such a vector because of the leverage effect: a $1 reduction in reserves can cause a $10 reduction in bank lending (and consequently in spending).
The latest subprime debacle was caused by banks attempting to circumvent the margin squeeze. They accepted narrower margins and on-sold loans into off-balance sheet SIVs, to avoid the reserve requirements. Lending on narrow margins is and always will be bad banking practice, no matter what clever structures are developed to hide this from investors/regulators. What the banks actually achieved was to leverage the problem into a far greater threat. According to the OECD (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=apN_1oOtVkWA&refer=news), the banking system currently faces losses of up to $300 billion due to subprime mortgage foreclosures. Taking leverage into account, that would translate in a $1 to $3 trillion reduction in bank credit — and spending.
An Irresistible Force

If we examine short-term rates, a self-reinforcing cycle [A > B > C] is evident since the 1980s, with each recession requiring more severe rate cuts by the Fed in order to stimulate the economy. Every artificial reduction in interest rates, however, merely compounds the problem, requiring even deeper rate cuts in the next cycle.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071124_irx_nber.png
It would be a mistake to ascribe falling interest rates solely to a decline in inflation. Money supply is growing at a steady click and there is strong evidence to suggest that purchasing power of the dollar is declining at a much faster long-term rate than the official consumer price index.
The market is more powerful than any individual or organization, including the Federal Reserve, who may be able to effect a temporary shift from the market equilibrium, but opposing pressure will gradually build until it becomes an irresistible force. By attempting to defer the inevitable, the Fed is digging us into a deeper and deeper hole, with each wave bigger than the last.
If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging.

~ Will Rogers.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (mhtml:mid://00000873/#dow_jones-industrial-average)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a clear break below its long-term trend channel, indicating a loss of momentum. Failure of support at 12800 would signal a primary trend reversal. Twiggs Money Flow (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/twiggs_money_flow.htm) shows a long-term bearish divergence (red) and a fall below -0.075 would warn that the primary trend is under threat.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071124_djiaa_w.png

[Kookaburra]

The US market has closed below 12800 on an accelerating decline. This is likely to be a blood on the floor day - clots everywhere.

[jdg]

well, my resolve broke (rather quickly, in the end). i was planning to ride this one out but i'm in the process of cashing up half my folio across the board. if the DOW didn't respond to sound retail numbers overnight, i'm not sure what it will respond to (in a positive, anyway). while i'm not as gloomy as many, i just can't see where the good news is going to come from to arrest the DOW’s malaise and subsequent affect on the ASX. still, if i'm half out, that means i'm half in and will still make some gains on any (seemingly improbably) rally. but with half in cash it may mean i only have to cut one wrist if it all goes to hell. it also means i have some dollars to get stitched up and buy a few bargains. good luck to all.

-j

[ratkin]

When people come on here announcing they are cashing up it is usually a sign that capitulation is very close.
Almost time to be buying big

[spruik]

When people come on here announcing they are cashing up it is usually a sign that capitulation is very close.
Almost time to be buying big

Shared grief is half the grief, but this is a market place. When people crack up under the strain of lower prices seeming to go ever lower they are not alone.

I agree, time to act invertedly on human emotions.

[Phaedrus]

When the time to buy does come, those that cashed up will be the ones buying big!

[spruik]

Very scary indeed. Looks like doomsday with a real crash? Too early to buy today...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/trading_diary.htm

[jdg]

Quote:
Originally Posted by ratkin
When people come on here announcing they are cashing up it is usually a sign that capitulation is very close.
Almost time to be buying big

------------


Shared grief is half the grief, but this is a market place. When people crack up under the strain of lower prices seeming to go ever lower they are not alone.

I agree, time to act invertedly on human emotions.
--------

glad to see i am useful as a barometer... (i've been called a few things in my time, but i think a buy signal is a first).
don't get me wrong, guys, i hope the market bounces and bounces hard (i'm still half in) but i just can't see what will spur it. it's been a great year and i'm up a chunk (a pretty big chunk, in fact). I’m just wanting to – partially, at least – lock in some profits.
sure, i could be wrong to sell out (wouldn't be the first time) and i'll be the first to tip my hat to you both for sticking tough. but if things tank further, i get to rest just a little easier at night and, as phaedrus points out, have the opportunity to buy when the market comes good. i did exactly the same thing in august and that worked very well. will it work again? who knows. but i think there is a fair chance that it will.
if i am panicking it's a fairly rational attack of the jitters. good luck guys, hope the ASX cranks up 200 points tomorrow and you can say, 'i told you so'.
-j

[fihr]

My portfolio performance has mostly been very lacklustre since the first correction. Unfortunately I think subprime still has some way to go, and it might be February or March before the market begins to really pick up again. I have however chosen to sell the rest of my JBM shares to Xstrata, so have all the cash I need for buying opportunities or other needs. After this, I don't think I'll sell anything else that is profitable until July next year - the tax bill is unbelievable on all these capital gains this year. Hopefully all this will be over by then!

[spruik]

My portfolio performance has mostly been very lacklustre since the first correction. Unfortunately I think subprime still has some way to go, and it might be February or March before the market begins to really pick up again. I have however chosen to sell the rest of my JBM shares to Xstrata, so have all the cash I need for buying opportunities or other needs. After this, I don't think I'll sell anything else that is profitable until July next year - the tax bill is unbelievable on all these capital gains this year. Hopefully all this will be over by then!

Don't forget to claim half of your home electricity and telephone accounts (also all ISP and ADSL expenses), and anything to do with share trading like your computer (purchase and add-ons), books and subscriptions. Add some $300 in newspapers for the year.

[winner69]

Unfortunately I think subprime still has some way to go,......

..... unfortunately the problem goes beyond subprime ...... the real crunch is in the commercial credit area ...... especially connected with CDSs (Credit Default Swaps) some time in the future ..... something like $45-50 trillion of outstanding credit risk in the US and no reserves put aside for any default ..... just like an insurance market with the insurance companies not putting anything aside to pay claims.

One commentator has said ".. no one will fess up to holding toxic securities until they must' and that could be some time off

[soulman]

Recovered ever so swiftly, taken me by suprise. Although coy in Australian have no exposure to sub-prime losses, I wondered if the US market has already factored in more bad news or not.

It seems everyone know about the next reset date on these risky mortgages and news of all US banks taking more hits in the next quarter but are those priced in the market? My feeling, 50% yes. Although slowdown in consumer spending and recession worry, and lower than expected GDP will have their say next year.

[Mick100]

.. some time in the future ..... something like $45-50 trillion of outstanding credit risk in the US and no reserves put aside for any default .....

Get real winner - not even you would believe that, surely

That 40-50 trillion is the gross value (notional value?) of the derivatives - not the actual amount of money that could be lost.

That's the same as me holding 3 crude options with a notioal value of 97,000 each but they only cost me about 4500 each. If the price of crude crashes i wouldn't say that I stand to lose 291000, rather 13500 - the cost of the options.

Be careful when using scare tactics as you do - not all of us are as naive as you seem to think - nothing annoys me more than the scaremongers who all seem to appear whenever the markets pull back a bit.
.

[macduffy]

Good to see that someone's cleaned up most of that blood, at least for today!

[winner69]

Get real winner - not even you would believe that, surely

That 40-50 trillion is the gross value (notional value?) of the derivatives - not the actual amount of money that could be lost.

That's the same as me holding 3 crude options with a notioal value of 97,000 each but they only cost me about 4500 each. If the price of crude crashes i wouldn't say that I stand to lose 291000, rather 13500 - the cost of the options.

Be careful when using scare tactics as you do - not all of us are as naive as you seem to think - nothing annoys me more than the scaremongers who all seem to appear whenever the markets pull back a bit.
.


..... but these credit default swaps are essentially an insurance against the gross amount ..... not a leverage investment like options in your example .... lets say that only 2% default thats still a losses of $1 trillion somewhere in the system

[soulman]

There is time Macduffy, when fund manager said to themselves.....enough is enough. The US market dropping should not have a big effect on us. I got screwed out of a trade with SGB, whereby, looking at the Dow, I just put in a break-even number and went away. 3 hours later SGB went up big and my order was filled on bargain prices. **** happens.

The thing about financial commentator is that, that's their job. They may have vested in interest for a crash (they are shorting) so it's all for all.

[ratkin]

When the time to buy does come, those that cashed up will be the ones buying big!


Dosent work that way.

Those leaving through fear , or the misguided belief they know where the markets are heading will be too scared to buy at the right time , whenever that time is.

[jdg]

Dosent work that way.

Those leaving through fear , or the misguided belief they know where the markets are heading will be too scared to buy at the right time , whenever that time is.



it doesn't work that way? never? really? that's a pretty bold statement. moreover, don't all investors/traders have a belief they know where the markets are going? that you remain fully invested suggests you have a belief the market is going up. those who cash up or go short believe you are wrong. i'm not sure you can be so bold as to suggest that those doing differently to you are automatically misguided or scared. if it were that simple all rational investors would constantly agree, but of course they don't as different data can be interpreted very differently. your certainty belies the fact that even the very best sometimes get it wrong.

after all that, the DOW is doing very well today so lets hope for a good rise on the ASX (i'm still 50% in). hope you make a fortune, ratkin.

-j

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin. Whenever the "right" time to buy does come, the degree to which you can take advantage of that will depend on the extent to which you cashed up earlier.

There are plenty of sound fundamental and technical reasons to believe that the market may be heading lower. That is why many thoughtful and intelligent ST contributors are now cashed up to some extent.

It is ignorant and arrogant to suggest that everyone holding cash right now is either fearful or misguided.

[spruik]

Strange day... thought market would be up bigtime.

Couldn't help buying some GPT for a trade at 4.17. If they move up 10 cents I'll gain $10K for the day.

[Mick100]

Strange day... thought market would be up bigtime.

.

Yes, it's look's as if the ASX and NZX are finally decoupling from the US markets which is most encouraging for me as i'm heavily invested in commodities.

It was a bit fustrating watching my oil stocks go down, when the DOW had a red day, while the price of crude went up.

I'm much happier with the recent performance of the ASX - investors finally seem to be distinguishing commodity shares as superior investments to the rest of the market. ie commodity stocks are not being dragged down, by weak markets, as they were in august.

[ratkin]

It is ignorant and arrogant to suggest that everyone holding cash right now is either fearful or misguided.

No , its ignorant and arrogant to suggest that you will know when the right time to buy is.

I dont pretend to , i buy stock every month and i rarely sell any. I make my money elsewhere and regularly invest some of it in the markets. I select stocks based on what i consider their long term prospects, and future dividends. When i do sell its because of some problem with the individual company not the state of the american stockmarket.
I am a long term investor not a trader. Maybe if i was a full time trader then i would take my money off the table at times but im not so i dont.

[soulman]

It was strange. I think yesterday swift recovery due to the rumours of the Citi deal was already factored in and hence it's a drop of about 50-60 points today.

[tommy]

Hi all,

I just came back from a month-long overseas holiday and now sitting on the sidelines getting ready for some bargain hunting (and have been waiting for a long time, I haven't bought anything for a month and still 70% cash, how boring!)

November has truly been a crazy month, but I think this volatility will continue into next year... That said, if the DOW doesn't tank violently this week in response to upcoming economic data, we may have seen or be close to the bottom in All Ords (fingers crossed).
Some stocks are seriously oversold/punished without reason and starting to look attractive.

In the meantime, it is important to bear in mind the existing risks and potential consequences of the subprime disaster outlined below:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/24/magazines/fortune/eavis_conduits.fortune/index.htm


The next credit scandal
The real outrage of the credit crunch has been in the way major banks disclosed potential losses. Now, there are billions more in undisclosed risk.
By Peter Eavis, senior writer


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The major banks have already reported billions in unexpected losses from complex investment vehicles known as CDOs. Now they face big risks from other corners of the debt markets -- but don't expect them to warn investors anytime soon.

The failure by banks to properly inform shareholders of their potential losses is perhaps the biggest scandal so far of the credit crunch that began this summer.

Earlier this year, for example, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Bank of America gave almost no indication that one particularly toxic debt product -- CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations -- could be the source of billions of dollars in losses.

Those losses came to light this fall, blindsiding shareholders and pummeling banks' stock prices.

The lack of disclosure not only has unsettled investors, but also has raised the prospect that large losses are lurking in other parts of the banks' businesses.

One likely new trouble spot: Conduits, the opaque structures banks set up to provide debt funding to borrowers. Often, the debt issued by the conduits is collateralized with assets, like mortgages.

Conduits typically aren't consolidated on a bank's balance sheet. But banks are often on the hook to fund them if investors stop buying the debt they've issued. When that happens, a lot of risk can get moved onto the balance sheet.

In a similar way, a good chunk of Citigroup's CDO losses occurred because it had to honor prior commitments to fund a large amount of debt previously issued by CDO structures. The financial services giant was ultimately forced to bring onto its balance sheet $25 billion of short-term CDO-debt backed with risky mortgages. (CDOs explained)

Now, conduits could trigger a similar process at many big banks. Since demand for certain types of conduit debt has shrunk dramatically and bad loan numbers on subprime debt are soaring, banks could well end up absorbing large amounts of conduit debt.

Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) had off-balance sheet conduits with assets totaling $73 billion as of Sept. 30. And Merrill bought $5 billion of assets from its conduits in the third quarter, a move that led to pre-tax losses of over $500 million in the same quarter.

Almost every major banks has significant conduit exposure. But if conduits are becoming a problem, banks are not saying much about it in their financial statements.

A close look at what happened with CDOs at Citigroup and Merrill shows just how little investors are told -- and should make investors wary about how little they know about banks' exposure to conduits.
So why was CDO exposure so secret?

Banks typically arranged and sold CDOs to investors, so the sold ones would not appear on their balance sheets.

In fact, there was one place in financial statements where numbers were given on CDOs. The disclosure was inadequate, but still worth looking at now.

In quarterly financial statements, companies disclose their "variable interest entities," or VIEs. These are entities to which a company has actual or potential economic exposure.

When it comes to inadequate CDO disclosures, the VIEs that matter are those that are not consolidated on a company's balance sheet.

A word search for CDO in a public financial statement may have taken an investor to the VIE tables. But once there, there would be no way of gauging just what the true exposure was to CDO losses.

This is partly the fault of the accounting rule -- something called FIN 46-R -- that governs off-balance sheet VIEs. The big problem is that it doesn't force companies to disclose realistic estimates for losses.

Under FIN46-R, companies must disclose their maximum loss exposure. That sounds like a conservative approach, but in practice it isn't. That's because banks often add comments in financial statements that effectively tell investors not to take these maximum loss numbers seriously.

Take a look at Citigroup's second quarter filing, posted Aug. 3, which was well into the summer credit meltdown. In it, the bank said actual losses from its unconsolidated VIEs, which included $75 billion of CDOs, were "not expected to be material." It has since estimated losses could be between $8 billion and $11 billion (which is most definitely material).

So the question becomes: Did banks have a good idea of what off-balance-sheet CDO losses would be before they were disclosed? The answer to that is: Almost certainly.

Even if FIN 46-R doesn't demand that banks disclose their estimates for actual losses, if such losses are material, other accounting guidelines demand they be made public.

And recent financial statements clearly indicate that banks have closely and continuously estimated the value of their financial commitments -- even those to off-balance sheet entities, like CDO structures.

If a change in the estimated value of a financial commitment to an off-balance-sheet entity produces a loss, that also generates a loss on the income statement. Both Merrill (Charts, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500) say in recent financial statements that their income statements have already been recognizing value changes in commitments to provide funding to CDOs.

For Citigroup, it was these sorts of CDO funding commitments that led the bank to take $25 billion of CDO debt onto its balance sheet.

If Citigroup were valuing that commitment in the same way as Merrill and Bank of America, then it would presumably have taken at least some losses on it before the CDO debt came on its balance sheet.

And those loss estimates should have been rigorous and sophisticated. That's because FIN 46-R guides companies to give probabilities to different loss scenarios for its unconsolidated entities.

In other words, if FIN 46-R were being followed, all the banks concerned should have been able to produce internal estimates for a range loss scenario -- and they would have been doing so as the credit crunch started this summer.

"We are confident that our financial statements fully comply with all applicable rules and regulations," said Citigroup spokeswoman Christina Pretto.

Just think how much better warned investors would have been if those actual loss estimates had been made public.

And just think how useful it would be to know those loss estimates for distressed conduits the banks must deal with now.

[tommy]

Looks like DJIA may have just bottomed out, though not conclusive as it will depend on how it closes tonight and tomorrow, unless we have a bear trap... very hard to tell.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=djia&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

Obviously FED signaling possible December rate cut is helping here for the time being. Will it be enough to reverse the downtrend?

[The Big Ease]

No , its ignorant and arrogant to suggest that you will know when the right time to buy is.

I dont pretend to , i buy stock every month and i rarely sell any. I make my money elsewhere and regularly invest some of it in the markets. I select stocks based on what i consider their long term prospects, and future dividends. When i do sell its because of some problem with the individual company not the state of the american stockmarket.
I am a long term investor not a trader. Maybe if i was a full time trader then i would take my money off the table at times but im not so i dont.

i respect what you are saying, but there are many ways to make money in the markets. i think youve gotta respect that people have different preferences and what may not work for you is not necessarily wrong.

for the record, im on your side of the fence in the sense that i pretty much disregard market movements and follow a company's prospects. however, if the market is a little shaky, it can often pay to see if that weakness will flow onto the stocks im keen on, before buying.

i would never sell a stock because the market is weak. if i do, its merely acknowledging i bought for the wrong reasons to begin with.

[spruik]

Hi Big Ease. Good to see another sane investor here. Basically I am also a long term invester but have a weakness for taking advantage of opportunities (like yesterday).

Wow, Dow up a whopping 2.77%, looks like a buying day... tend to agree that the Dow has bottomed out and that "Le Crash" will stay away after all (for now), despite all the gloom and doom.

[The Big Ease]

hi spruik. its the only way i can remain sane im afraid. i just cant be assed immersing myself with daily gyrations of the market.

as for the market volatility, this is definitely not over. very happy to see the market track back its meteoric recovery from the august "correction". it simply didnt make sense that a 2 week sell off was enough blood letting for 7 years of excess liquidity.

for instance, look at this chart:
[IMG=http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/8854/untitled1qx3.th.png] (http://img403.imageshack.us/my.php?image=untitled1qx3.png)

if anybody thinks 2008 will be smooth sailing, id say think again. i dont know what your local media coverage of this topic has been like, but here in london town, FT, the guardian and the times have been writing about this for a good 8 months. first warning, now discussing how deep. not one commentator thinks we are anything but at the beginning of this f'en drama.

wait until full year or at least first half results of the big investment banks are in for 2008. the market will definitely take a hit from that, especially if the write offs have been insufficient. if investment bankers are true to type, then they most definitely will have been understated in the hope that they could get away with it. the banks with the most senior departures will probably be least effected as it would be easier for the newcoming boss to wipe more of the slate clean, so to speak.

does this mean a bear market? i wouldnt have a clue. but finance for projects that are anything but commercially compelling will be difficult and expensive. i expect housholds to be hit harder than businesses in the non-consumer segment. if a business case doesnt make sense at 10% interest rates, then you shouldnt have been doing it at 8% IMHO. whereas many people borrowed when they shouldnt have, to buy houses at inflated prices. they will struggle.

i read today that rio tinto's economist predict a potential US recession to have no more than a 1% drag on china's economic growth. so from 9% to 8%. woopdee do! hehe if you are generating cash in 2008, its the time to accumulate good solid companies exposed to chindia.

would be interested in other opinions.

[FarmerGeorge]

I think it might be interesting to get a little more creative around the China/India stories than the simple 'they need copper let's buy copper' track which has done many people very well for the past few years.
I've been thinking about how smaller SE Asian economies might be able to benefit by having these two giants on their doorstep. Malaysia and Korea are two which don't get that much press but there must be opportunties there for good companies to sell in to China. Still just an idea at the moment but I think it good be worthwhile looking at.

[soulman]

Chindia? I thought it was the BRIC nation, adding Brazil and Russia. I supposed Chindia are more influential to the world economy ATM.

The Big Ease says it all there. If the investment banker are smart in the US, they should overstate the loss now and report a smaller than expected losses in their next reporting period. Unfortunately, they might have to announce further losses for the next quarter and the next and the next. Due to the fact they can't forsee ahead of time, they don't know the amount until the times comes. Although, I don't think the market has fully factored in more losses as yet, these losses are one-off, aren't they?

Spruik, are you in paradise now? I assume you sold your GPT today?

[macduffy]

I'm not sure that "Globalisation" as such makes much difference. In the 1930's "International trade" was enough to ensure that the Depression reached this part of the world and in the post 2nd WW/Korean War era, the demand for food and raw materials world-wide caused a corresponding boom in Aust/NZ.
Whichever way you look at it, we won't avoid the fall-out from any severe downturn in our major trading partners.

[Mick100]

Most mainsteam economist will argue that if the US goes into reccession and the USD weakens further the americans will mot be able to continue buying chinese produced goods and chinese economic growth will fall off the cliff which in turn would have a very negitive effect NZ/OZ economies

However there is another line of thought - that is, if US consumption takes a nosedive and this subsequently effects chinese exports then the chinese will revalue or float their currency. The effect of a much stronger chinese currecy will be that chinese exports will be more expensive to the rest of the world but thier imports would be cheaper which would benifit countries that export to china. Chinese domestic prices will decline leading domestic consumption in china to increase substancially - will it be enough to take over the current american consumption? I read an article recently which predicted that it would take another 3 yrs before asian consumption could replace american consumption (the middle class in china stands at around 300 million curently - people earning 10,000 US or more)

The thing to watch is the value of the chinese currency relative to the USD - it is increasing slowly

[ratkin]

If there was was a recession they might even buy more chinese made goods.
Look what happened here in the early -mid nineties when little NZ had unemployment (remember that) People flocked to the warehouse in droves to buy cheap chinese imports

[spruik]

Sold GPT today I bought yesterday, and from the profit ordered two 27" monitors (one for my new trading screen and one for my other work - no porn...) with heeps to spare for the cat's kibbles :).

[The Big Ease]

consensus is with you on this one KW and i would agree, but as an alternate view from a company that is relying on such forecasts for its continued prosperity, its a credible voice to lend an ear to.

i'd say the weight of evidence thus far is on the side of the argument you put forward. however, rio's economist raises some very interesting and not entirely unrealistic prospects. there is much talk about china's internal economy beginning to have some traction around consumer demand. same with india. i believe india is a bigger opportunity than people give it credit for. theyre a little slower to get going than china due to political differences, but they have far more going for them in the medium term ie english, familiarity with western culture, massive middle class most of whom are over educated etc

[soulman]

I had a feeling on Tuesday that Friday will be a big day because of the end of month activity. But yesterday rise has questioned my thoughts, although the rise yesterday was mediocre as I supposed many people were expecting a rise of about 120 points.

Hence, today we are just doing catching up. And as with Monday big rise, it's only attributable to 2 stocks - BHP and RIO. The Dow having a quiet trade also helps because anything less than 100 points down for the Dow is OK for the ASX.

[The Big Ease]

China and Indias internal economy is gaining traction because millions of people have come in off the land to work in factories, thereby creating an urban middle class. If the factories close down, or slow down, its going to send these people to the urban poor house or back to the land.

well yeah that will happen to some extent. quantified by RIO's economist at 1% of China's GDP. Lets face it, Americans arent going to stop buying CHinese goods. they may buy less, but in the overall scheme of China's growth, internal demand and total value of trade with the rest of the world etc, there is a school of thought emerging that its not necessarily going to be that bad.

i dont know the numbers and yes, i too am sceptical about the "its different this time" brigade.

[STRAT]

Hi fellas, I was in Fiji for the week and caught the tail end of a story on CNN about Chine refusing to let US Ships into Hong Kong. Anyone got the good oil on this story? I believe economic relations between the US and China will be instrumental to the fortunes of the Markets over the next year and would love to know what went down.

We all know China gave the US the middle finger when the US started making noise about how China value their dollar so I would love to know what this latest story is all about. I agree with Macdunk that China may pull the rug out from under the shakey US economy sometime after they have hosted the Olimpics.

[shane_m]

any ideas on what caused the dripping blood today?

[spruik]

any ideas on what caused the dripping blood today?

Mainly CNP I would have thought.

[fihr]

re dripping blood - Merrill Lynch also said the US was definitely going into recession in 2008. Only their opinion, but may have reinforced the effect. They were pretty darned certain.

[winner69]

Mainly CNP I would have thought.

Energy, Materials and Finacials down >3% along with property down 10%

Bad day eh

[georgeofthejungle]

Energy, Materials and Finacials down >3% along with property down 10%

Bad day eh

Overall ASX down 3.2 %!

Ouch.

Good buying opportunities are starting to present themselves.

[ananda77]

...as if a few billions more would make ANY difference at all to more than a trillion in toxic junk

...the Fed's action of providing more...more....more....more...more... billions upon billions is not designed to solve the credit dilemma -sorry that train has left the station for good, too late, this problem is passed saving-

...the international and domestic billions, if they keep coming hard and fast as promised however, might be just enough to keep the dollar shored up and keep economies from slipping into recessions ((financing trade deficit and the Bush/Cheney fascist international expansion .Amen/Halleluja.)

...now why would anyone want to sell their long positions, when international markets just received a massive liquidity shot in the backside

...as for selling gold and silver -NO THANK YOU-

...for now, there is absolutely NO REASON at all to liquidate long index positions -absolutely NONE-

Kind Regards

[spruik]

The Dow is retracing to test short-term support at 13250. The long-legged doji (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/candlesticks.htm#candlestick_doji) warns of increased volatility — that could resolve either way. A rise above 13800 would signal a test of resistance at 14200, while a fall through 13250 would test primary support at 12800.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20071213_djiaa.png

[tricha]

Christmas shopping day today.

Bought all these cheap shares as the marginal lending and stop losses kicked in.

Beautiful:D

Maybe all these traders need a dose of Lithium to keep them on the ground

[moimoi]

indeed tricha....

amazing to see the rats n mice exiting AGS today...holders of 1k shares selling at 1.11 and 1.16 this am.

"subprime issues" seem to be taking on the form of a past event called "Y2K" !!

[spruik]

Santa has arrived after all... but we had to do she shopping ourselves. I think Santa might be getting bashed up here and there.

Yesterday would have been mainly traders of any kind, today it's the man on the street selling who only heard of it on the news last night.

Get the feeling we've seen the worse of it (at least for a while).

Nice to see you got some bargains, tricha. My shopping bag is already full.

[slam]

Hi All
Anyone mind disclosing what they are picking up today?
I'll admit to few more AGM, and ADY ;)

tia
Slam

[spruik]

I hope that other property trust managers take a lesson from CNP and in future don't leverage to the neck.

Let's go back to fundamentals. Perhaps we're better off in unlisted trusts like I used to do long time ago.

[STRAT]

Hi All
Anyone mind disclosing what they are picking up today?
I'll admit to few more AGM, and ADY ;)

tia
SlamHi Slam, I dug out all the loose change in my car and got some more ADY too

[spruik]

Hi All
Anyone mind disclosing what they are picking up today?
I'll admit to few more AGM, and ADY ;)

tia
Slam

Added a few AGS at 1.115

[JBmurc]

Can't wait for 07 to finish been a shocker for my portfilo
I see on CNBC a senior analyst believes the resource boom is over with the future bleak for most resources with a likely world slow down -he was bullish on- GOLD 1000US tip next yr -and bearish on OIL to fall to cheap mid 70's before end of 08

[bermuda]

Can't wait for 07 to finish been a shocker for my portfilo
I see on CNBC a senior analyst believes the resource boom is over with the future bleak for most resources with a likely world slow down -he was bullish on- GOLD 1000US tip next yr -and bearish on OIL to fall to cheap mid 70's before end of 08

Roche is very forthright eh?

It will take demand destruction to take oil to $75....and yes it could happen but it wont last long.

I liked his comments on climate change.

That is why Coal Bed Methane has a powerful future ( i.e. Gas Power Stations replacing coal )

[Serpie]

Picked up some CTS Strat.

Was trawling through the "biggest losers" section and saw it there. Couldn't help myself.

[JBmurc]

Yeah I bullish on USA Gas market and am invested in SSN,PSA,STX,EKAO the first three no brainers if you bullish on the future of GAS to replace more of the coal power stations that And U308 will be 08 sectors rebounding IMHO

[STRAT]

Picked up some CTS Strat.

Was trawling through the "biggest losers" section and saw it there. Couldn't help myself.I havent jumped in yet but they will be one of my picks for the comp. Problem is no more loose change in my car.

Their last set of drill results were only average and less that market expectation I suspect. They are getting hammered today on very little volume so Im off to look under the cushions on the couch ;)

[sparrow]

Hi All
Anyone mind disclosing what they are picking up today?
Slam

Some nice person sold me some CBH for 49c

[Ptolemy]

Hi All
Anyone mind disclosing what they are picking up today?
I'll admit to few more AGM, and ADY ;)

tia
Slam

I also bought ADY at .415. Had a buy order in for some AGS for 1.05 but it didn't quite make it.

I also bought some CCP at 4.50. I couldn't believe it made it all the way down to 4.10 before bouncing back to 4.86 - - now that would have been a nice swing trade!!!

[soulman]

The market is recovering and I wonder how it would end up today. It was 140 down, to 75, back to 100, now at 45. It's the big banks making a comeback.

[soulman]

Japan has turned positive so our market is recovering as well. How will we go tomorrow?

[ananda77]

I'm looking in the property sector for the babies thrown out with the bath water. APZ is an excellent example. They updated the market with a position on their debt financing, and they are pretty conservatively geared, and have a nice long term business in developing retirement villages.

...agree; for example, ITB(nyse), the homebuilders index fund; additionally, !!!BUY!!!BUY!!! small publicy listed country banks who have been hammered as a result of the subprime chaos but are in no way exposed to it...

Kind Regards

[Serpie]

Got me some HTW (heartpumps) today. RSI (oversold) is scary today.

Held HTW for about a year, so know the fundamentals reasonably well, and am happy to be back in at these levels.

[JackSprat]

Tried to get AGS but missed the low price. ADY doing a big trade, 9mill in 2 trades. Looks like a big bounce coming tonight for the DOW. A few more billion injected.

[fihr]

I don't think there is any need to rush in - although getting the odd bargain won't hurt and is tempting.

My bet is that we have not seen the last of these jitters, and there will be more opportunities over the next few months, probably down to the levels we are currently seeing.

[tricha]

Santa has arrived after all... but we had to do she shopping ourselves. I think Santa might be getting bashed up here and there.

Yesterday would have been mainly traders of any kind, today it's the man on the street selling who only heard of it on the news last night.

Get the feeling we've seen the worse of it (at least for a while).

Nice to see you got some bargains, tricha. My shopping bag is already full.

Picked up Perilya for $2.85 and this dog EXM (Excalibar) for 3.2 cents.

Talk about a skitzo market, bargins a plenty for anyone. Some people must have taken huge losses due to stop losses and margin calls.
Still tomorrow another day and it could all go pearshape again

[JackSprat]

Pre market DOW already +62

[Dazza]

what happened today? i had to go to work at 1pm.

but man

bugger that

i picked up some more OXR at 3.30 - surely would double within a year i would hope so :D

i placed an order for WSA right at $5.16 , as tehre were some on sale too!, but bugger NBNZ it aint DMA like ASB , it takes about 2-5 mins for them to place the order on the market, i guess afta i placed my order it just went up from there.

happy that OXR closed at 3.60 - instant 10% gain today

[tricha]

what happened today? i had to go to work at 1pm.

but man

bugger that

i picked up some more OXR at 3.30 - surely would double within a year i would hope so :D

i placed an order for WSA right at $5.16 , as tehre were some on sale too!, but bugger NBNZ it aint DMA like ASB , it takes about 2-5 mins for them to place the order on the market, i guess afta i placed my order it just went up from there.

happy that OXR closed at 3.60 - instant 10% gain today


Imm, way over the mark , 10 max

[bermuda]

what happened today? i had to go to work at 1pm.

but man

bugger that

i picked up some more OXR at 3.30 - surely would double within a year i would hope so :D

i placed an order for WSA right at $5.16 , as tehre were some on sale too!, but bugger NBNZ it aint DMA like ASB , it takes about 2-5 mins for them to place the order on the market, i guess afta i placed my order it just went up from there.

happy that OXR closed at 3.60 - instant 10% gain today

Hey Dazza,

Oxiana was nearly in my top Aussie Picks. ( 6th actually )

This is a top company. Actually know some people in it and am very impressed.

[k1w1]

I picked up some DOM at 4.35 yesterday but my best buy was RRT at .54 before they confirmed a 5.5 cent interim dividend and that they were on track to pay 11 cents (including interim). RRT at .63 this morning.

[trendy]

Trendy calling from down here in the boiler room - warning she's about to blow!

CDO and bond insurers are about to default here. This will have massive ramifications on the credit market. Insurance protection for default or loss on CDOs (not just sub-prime) is all but gone. CDO and bond ratings that were AAA today will drop to junk without insurance.

Will require government bailout and backing of insurers to prevent massive credit crunch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF5n2mMwD_VE&refer=home

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1198181083.php

[winner69]

Trendy calling from down here in the boiler room - warning she's about to blow!

CDO and bond insurers are about to default here. This will have massive ramifications on the credit market. Insurance protection for default or loss on CDOs (not just sub-prime) is all but gone. CDO and bond ratings that were AAA today will drop to junk without insurance.

Will require government bailout and backing of insurers to prevent massive credit crunch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF5n2mMwD_VE&refer=home

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1198181083.php

Those CDS (Credit Default Swaps) are likely to cause some real problems .... there just aint enough reserves to cover future claims

But trendy ..... don't scare us ..... there will be a way around it .... won't there?

[georgeofthejungle]

Those CDS (Credit Default Swaps) are likely to cause some real problems .... there just aint enough reserves to cover future claims

But trendy ..... don't scare us ..... there will be a way around it .... won't there?

I do really hope that none of this has the impact that the author of that article is suggesting. However, there will always be predictions of Financial Armageddon no matter what the current climate is.

Just sounds like another doomsayer, with no economic credentials by self-admission, having his day in the sun.

But yes, scary!

[spruik]

I don't think I'll start liquidating everything.

[fihr]

Depends on your time line.

Looks like my portfolio will be 3/4 liquidated anyway soon - I accepted the JBM bid, and my AGM holding is subject to a takeover bid.

All my other shares have gone way down. No worries with a horizon of 1 or 2 years out, and if all that cash comes in, there will be bargains out there still - this sub prime thing will maybe go on another 6 months... but hopefully not.

[sparrow]

I've written off the rest of 2007 for my resource stocks (mostly miners or miner wannabees). Looking forward to 2008 when reports start coming in of:

1. Drill Results (BRW, CBH, IXR, PTS, LRL EXT)
2. Chinese Partners (CFE, IXR)
3. Mine openings (CBH, LRL, VRE)
4. Production Ramp Up (AZC, CBH)
5. JORC upgrades (CFE, TTR, CBH)
6. Posiible Takeovers (CBH, BRW).
7. A whole year in which greed in the USA doesn't stuff up the rest of the world (remember Enron, CPA firms 4-5 years ago and now the sub prime fiasco)
8. Formation of a government in Ukraine that lasts more than 2 weeks (sorry Shasta)

Merry Xmas to all

[spruik]

Depends on your time line.

Looks like my portfolio will be 3/4 liquidated anyway soon - I accepted the JBM bid, and my AGM holding is subject to a takeover bid.

All my other shares have gone way down. No worries with a horizon of 1 or 2 years out, and if all that cash comes in, there will be bargains out there still - this sub prime thing will maybe go on another 6 months... but hopefully not.

Some I've been holding and adding for a long time. The largest part of my portfolio is in ABP (way ahead) and GPT (modest loss right now), and they are for the long haul (decades) and doesn't make me lose any sleep.

Then BBI which I expect to do better and ADY and we all know where that is expected to go. These two I will probably sell sooner or later.

The rest is a range of smaller holdings like AGS, BLR, NAV and some more crap. All for sale when showing a good profit.

[winner69]

Trendy calling from down here in the boiler room - warning she's about to blow!

CDO and bond insurers are about to default here. This will have massive ramifications on the credit market. Insurance protection for default or loss on CDOs (not just sub-prime) is all but gone. CDO and bond ratings that were AAA today will drop to junk without insurance.

Will require government bailout and backing of insurers to prevent massive credit crunch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF5n2mMwD_VE&refer=home

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1198181083.php


So the 'insurers' of these dodgy loans were investing in them themselves .... and some reports say some of their investments were even 'dodgier'

[Lizard]

Just found this article from July re Monolines which I found interesting in current context:

A Monoline Meltdown? - Economist.com (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9552987)

[winner69]

Just found this article from July re Monolines which I found interesting in current context:

A Monoline Meltdown? - Economist.com (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9552987)

Thanks Lizard - seeing that was written in July quite revealing

Like the last sentence "It remains to be seen if that optimism is, like Mr Ackman's pessimism, somewhat overdone."

Maybe just like some debates on Sharetrader

[JackSprat]

Working today; Xmas Day so have time to check out the market news. This one I liked:


No recession in '08; Dow will end year at 15000, strategist says
William Knapp, chief investment strategist for MainStay Investments, says investors should expect the market to sidestep a recession in 2008, but noted that even if once occurs, "consumers will barely know it happened." In a radio interview, Knapp said he expected large-cap growth to remain in favor for at least the first half of the new year, and said the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2008 at 15,000.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid=%7B7569D72F-569C-4FFE-A1E6-813555477023%7D

[Ttops]

Bill starts 11 minutes in if you want to miss the preamble and other guests.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/p...13555477023%7D (http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid=%7B7569D72F-569C-4FFE-A1E6-813555477023%7D)

[Tok3n]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPvQrWnmpwGM&refer=home

A housing slump in NZ would be really nice too :)

[soulman]

Messy US market about to get messier. Job growth weak as piss and unemployment up at 5%.

Anyway, from my viewpoint, a recession in the US is not a big deal as long as other economies are holding up. Of course I am talking about a short term recession. Also, I read somewhere from Dr Chris Caton (BT Chief Economist) that no analyst ever forecast a recession that came true.

[jdg]

yeah, there does seem to be a sense of inevitability to a recession in the US. let's just hope it's shallow and short. if that's the case the affect on world economies may be limited. either way, i suspect that making money in the markets this year will be much more difficult than it has been in recent years.
-j

[spruik]

yeah, there does seem to be a sense of inevitability to a recession in the US. let's just hope it's shallow and short. if that's the case the affect on world economies may be limited. either way, i suspect that making money in the markets this year will be much more difficult than it has been in recent years.
-j

What an opportunity to spend more time on the tractor (or in the garden) rather than the screen! (Get something really useful done...) ;)

[Hawke]

Yes I expect real fear next week to grip the markets.
With the Japanese index plummueting 4% in just one day- and the Dow down half that- scary stuff if your fully invested.

Hawke- me scared no- low buy order in -YES!
Watch for big swings to come.

Hawke.