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Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 01:07 PM
Bargains about. Don't get hooked in to picking up trash. Some things are getting smacked for good reason.

This isn't like the Dotcom bubble - but there sure are a lot of companies out there who have been riding on the coat-tails of others, not to mention on some very dodgy geological credentials. When it comes out in the wash we will wonder why certain co's were valued ten times what they are actually worth - and how the hell did they get a broking house to put a value on that one that high? But quality is quality, and there is still some of that about.

I got a pasting this morning, but I'm not the type to sook, so I'm back in to catch a bounce or two! (famous last words)

SimonSays
30-03-2005, 01:10 PM
Totally agree and quality tends to be more about people than anything else.

Mick100
30-03-2005, 01:14 PM
Don't jump in too soon packers

This correction could take 3 months to play out IMO

mICK

Mick100
30-03-2005, 01:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

Totally agree and quality tends to be more about people than anything else.


Certainly true with junior exploration companies


,

Cooper
30-03-2005, 01:22 PM
I agree POK. Taking the cowards course and selling my more speccy plays and putting the proceeds into defensive plays and/or companies I am sure are/will be viable. Reducing the number of co's I am holding and starting to look longer term, also increasing the cash holdings. Been due for a while but a bit of a kick of the pants to see it happening.

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 01:29 PM
There are some new players about who are forging 'reputations' now that will dog them, rightfully, for many years to come. Not to mention the 'old' corporate crims who seem to latch onto every new bubble that rumbles along, who everyone seems to forget about their past reputations when they wave the dollars in front of their eyes a la Forrest and Fortescue. It's a pity in some ways Diamond Joe has been put out to pasture: he would have raised 50 mill by now from Mums and Dads and used it as his personal trading 'buffer' a la 87. Left you gobsmacked with the audacity of it all.

I reckon in 18 months time there will be some new Sons of Gwalia carcasses lying around and a lot of people complaining about the resources bubble and how its put the stock market on the nose for decades to come. Then something else will come rumbling in and the money-wise will buy at the bottom and sell to the can-carriers at the top a couple of years later.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

whiteheron
30-03-2005, 01:30 PM
Packers---------

I have taken a bit of a pasting the last week or so as well --- still okay , but quite a few vanishing profits

I am presently considering which stocks to quit ( to get some liquidity to pick up a few of the quality buys out there )
I believe that the cost of the on line brokerage to make the move will be well worth while in the medium term and the move is in keeping with my philosophy of regularly culling the worst performers and moving to stocks that ( appear ) to have much better prospects

I am mainly invested in mining and resource stocks and I still consider these to be a good sector to be invested in

They may take a bit more of a hit yet before they settle down but the best stocks will hold up well I believe

As always , time will tell --- I will be watching closely and frequently

robbo
30-03-2005, 01:37 PM
Blood on the Floor my ars@#$e ;)

Just a mere hiccup my dearie Worry Warts......

except for Uncle Andy Forrest (nice one eh what !@#@! !! ;)[}:)]), most of the other stocks...IMO... are relatively cool [8D][8D]

Nothing like a good enema of a cleansing to put a "spring in your step".... I say :)[:p]:)

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

Halebop
30-03-2005, 01:42 PM
Remember we are approaching the Australian tax season as well so losers will continue to underperform as people sell to reduce tax obligations.

Agree with Mick - this will take a little while to sort out.

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 01:43 PM
Have you been eating that ecstasy again, Robbo? :)[:p];)[8D][^]

Mick100
30-03-2005, 01:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

There are some new players about who are forging 'reputations' now that will dog them, rightfully, for many years to come. Not to mention the 'old' corporate crims who seem to latch onto every new bubble that rumbles along, who everyone seems to forget about their past reputations when they wave the dollars in front of their eyes a la Forrest and Fortescue. It's a pity in some ways Diamond Joe has been put out to pasture: he would have raised 50 mill by now from Mums and Dads and used it as his personal trading 'buffer' a la 87. Left you gobsmacked with the audacity of it all.

I reckon in 18 months time there will be some new Sons of Gwalia carcasses lying around and a lot of people complaining about the resources bubble and how its put the stock market on the nose for decades to come. Then something else will come rumbling in and the money-wise will buy at the bottom and sell to the can-carriers at the top a couple of years later.

The more things change the more they stay the same.





I think your getting too pessimistic Packers
Volitility is part of the game with resources.
My stocks got hammered last year in may-june.
Looks like we are going to get the sme treatment this year.
I expect things to be looking good again in the second half of the year.

Mick

Cooper
30-03-2005, 01:45 PM
Agree Halebop. That's why I like the idea of profit taking now and then waiting for a little of the dust to settle. Would rather be wrong with profits.

whiteheron
30-03-2005, 01:49 PM
Hi folks

Some really interesting and important comments are being made

It will be interesting to look back in say 3 to 6 months to analyse what in fact transpires , but that will be with the knowledge of what money cant buy --- hindsight !!!

It gives me a little ( but only a little ) comfort to find myself in virtually the same position as a number of others

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 01:56 PM
I think quality will shine through, Mick. Got no doubt about that. Just reckon there are a lot of johnny-come-latelys who are going to get found out in the next year and a half. Fundamentals are looking great for resources - but that's always the case at the top of the market. When fundamentals are great you'll find every man and his dog wanting a piece of the action, regardless of whether they know what they are doing. Money attracts all sorts of bees to the honeypot, some of them more crooked than others.

SimonSays
30-03-2005, 01:57 PM
Just keep your eyes on the Directors buy/sell disclosures and watch the crossings on the screen and you will know when real panic sets in. Clearly it is not now.

soulman
30-03-2005, 02:44 PM
The commentary is that institutions are selling to balance off their March quarter books and hence, need to outperform the benchmark to received bonuses and a pat on the back for a job well done. Thursday would be the last day in March.

Then, with all the money lying around in the bank, they would need to invest back in quality stocks. Some funds need to be fully invested. I take it from the expert that this is just a healthy, however quite largish correction. BHP and RIO has been moving north from JAN this year and they dominate the index. The banks are due to report their half yearly.

I hope this a correction and not the end. I haven't been around other run like this but surely a correction like this should be follow by a recovery and then sideways movement. I don't mind sideways movement and gradual increase. There is also $30 billion to be re-invested in WMR/PMM/NFD T/O, capital returns and dividends. So cash is everywhere.

k1w1
30-03-2005, 02:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

Blood on the Floor my ars@#$e ;)

Just a mere hiccup my dearie Worry Warts......

except for Uncle Andy Forrest (nice one eh what !@#@! !! ;)[}:)]), most of the other stocks...IMO... are relatively cool [8D][8D]

Nothing like a good enema of a cleansing to put a "spring in your step".... I say :)[:p]:)






Bet you he is dumping them like there is no tomorrow ....

OneUp
30-03-2005, 04:05 PM
Perhaps we're just seeing the standard quarterly effect (shares are sold off at the end of the quarter, and bought back at the beginning)? More pronounced in January ("January effect") and July ("July effect"). But there is also an "April effect".

I am buying selected stocks today, but stocks that I am more than happy to hold through a major market correction if it comes.

I agree the June quarter tends to be a little weak, running into the Ozzie tax year.

robbo
30-03-2005, 04:33 PM
ASX: All Ords still has only declined to where we were in January of THIS YEAR....after almost unremitting gains of nearly 47% in that period...

I'm totally COOL with this...just a bit of a "Cup and Handle" doody dah dah Profit Taking is completely understandeable; with what is going on chart wise....and fundamentally//value wise, with the secular Macro Economic forces with Supply and Demand Globally for commodities..India, China, Japan....and on the next tier Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and some of the former Soviet states breaking out into one form of infant defiant democracy...and USA ready to rock & roll again......and the Asian jugganaut about to add 2.5--3 Billion folk to the Capitalist, religously pure Human urge for rampant materialism, and Coca Colas and cars.... and generally desiring more consumer goods; rather than living one's life immersed up to the waisst in a Paddy Field...

So going forward the next three-six months...this is definntely not the beginning of the end, but the end of the first beginning, being a scratch to mark the first scratch...and one always needs an enema aftter that surely ....[?][?]:):)

So I'm still rock solid and up-beat, and the only stocks I'd dump now are only those dodgey stocks I maybe had ramped Kiwi1 into buying;.... on all those good 'ol previous times & wonderful occasions..thank's Kiwi1 ;);)[8D][8D]

Be steady, calm, and..IMO.... have a BEX everyone....

Kind Regards,[^]

Robbo :):)[^][^]:)

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 04:58 PM
I've loaded up on Discovery, Legend, Barra, Herron and I'm looking at Reefton before close.

I once saw something that reminded me of a market correction. I was in a taxi queue about 70 metres long in Canberra about 3 in the morning. Everyone in the queue had their eyes on this young bloke sitting on the kerb with his head in his hands. He had obviously overgorged and eaten and drunk way too much - he body was slowly wobbling when he chundered a couple of huge spews right into the gutter under his feet. Everyone in the taxi queue went 'Awwwwwwwwww!!', and was still watching him to see if he was going to throw up anymore, when he just kept on looking at the technicolour yawn in the gutter in front of him. All of a sudden he reached down into the vomit and started to pick up what looked like olives out if it and began eating them. After all he'd just chucked up and needed a feed. This made everyone go 'Euwwwwww!' again.

On days like today when the market is crook and throws up, you've gotta be brave enough to reach into the vomit and start eating the olives.

30-03-2005, 05:07 PM
Kidney it needs at leastone more technicolour yawn before you start looking for the olives or your false teeth

whiteheron
30-03-2005, 05:08 PM
Packers

I dont believe that the market is that bad yet

Olives taste like vomit at the best of times anyway

Cooper
30-03-2005, 05:13 PM
He went home by himself though, didn't he?

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 05:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by Cooper

He went home by himself though, didn't he?


The girls over here are into that sort of thing. So probably not. Though its possible he also went home in the back of a divvy van.

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 05:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Kidney it needs at leastone more technicolour yawn before you start looking for the olives or your false teeth


Not at the falsie stage just yet, Enigma!

Cooper
30-03-2005, 05:17 PM
I think market sentiment has been hit by a dose of reality and am holding back with a preference (at the moment) for larger, proven co's over juniors. I'm still holding some of the juniors... TAW, NEO, but also taking the opportunity to move towards co's like BPC (buying more) and looking to pick up some BHP (I agree, soulman) on leverage once it looks like it's bottomed.

EDIT: to add that BPC isn't a typo... I know it's not a resource co but it's a defensive play that I already own and I think it's got a wee bit in it, with lower risk.

pago
30-03-2005, 05:57 PM
hi ,not sure the correction has hit bottom yet.a lot of shares bounced off their lows this alvo,some traded at prices not seen for 2/6 months.imo,there is a lot of cash sitting,waiting on the sidelines for a sign of confidance.imo,the main downside driver is the usa share markets/economy.the nasdec is at risk,from t/a analysis,to crash.usa consumer confidance yesterday down.all eyes need to be on the many usa reports expected in the next few days.sorry guys,see the trend,if the usa turns to custurd its not game over,but time to pick the next trend,cheers pago.

Tinker
30-03-2005, 06:34 PM
Bring it on!

Maybe the prices paid in the future will more accurately reflect the cash returns investors require from companies. They are there to provide a CASH return to the owners. Maybe the return is not there at the minute?

Could be those playing pass-the-parcel think the seats next to them aren't as full as they were?

Take that:D!

cheers
Tinker

SimonSays
30-03-2005, 07:00 PM
Wait till China revalues its currency upward - then you will know how things can change. It will happen.

Mick100
30-03-2005, 07:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

Wait till China revalues its currency upward - then you will know how things can change. It will happen.


That will make the resources which they import even cheaper for them which will increase demand even further. [8D]

skinny
30-03-2005, 07:50 PM
A slight flesh wound only I reckon.

I'd love to see an arterial vein get slashed; quality stocks are still hanging in there and NOTHING on my short and sweet long-term ASX/NZX watch list has dropped yet [:o)][}:)][}:)]

Cooper
30-03-2005, 08:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

A slight flesh wound only I reckon.

I'd love to see an arterial vein get slashed; quality stocks are still hanging in there and NOTHING on my short and sweet long-term ASX/NZX watch list has dropped yet [:o)][}:)][}:)]

Can I be cheeky enough to ask what has caught the skinny one's eye?

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 08:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

A slight flesh wound only I reckon.

I'd love to see an arterial vein get slashed; quality stocks are still hanging in there and NOTHING on my short and sweet long-term ASX/NZX watch list has dropped yet [:o)][}:)][}:)]


I didn't know one so thin could pack in that much evil into such a lean frame. A blood-thirsty economist. Who woulda thought? Are you all the same you economists? Do you drink goats blood at full moon while preparing your economic forecasts? Do you consult the fresh entrails of a slain pigs to discern underlying CPI's?

Is this the real reason Big Al has been steering the Fed the way he has? Because he wants to see global carnage?

robbo
30-03-2005, 08:13 PM
Note that market "only" ended up 8 points lower on the S&P 200 at end of day's Trade, which was a bit of an "upward "rally" in the context of the intraday trading hitting a lowly minus 38 basis points....Are we bottoming out...."to be or not to be....that is The Ques....??"

It'll be interesting watching the Dow over at Yankee Stadium, in U.S. of A...tonight...for some possible guidance ?? ??

Also; note in passing that the volumes on ASX today were quite sedate, certainly not ...from where I sit....indicative of MASS sell off's...so although I don't agree with the "blood on the streets theory"...old Packer's about right...IMO....'on the money'.... with his "Olives in the Spew" thesis...[^][^]:)

Your all class Packman !!


Uncle Maxie and Aunty Madgie, also reckon that re: the PUNTER and his spew...the one seen by POK...at the Taxi stand on the last plane out of Sydney....that Packers, so eloquently had us all ruminating on...(at around dinner time I might forcefully add, just when I was about to have my bangers, tomato sauce & mash @#$#@!#@...)..anyway...it may have been the same Punter we saw here at The PUB the other day.......banging on about ramping or some such B.S..so Maxie cunningly decided to serve the bug%$#@..er some oldish....beer(not the youshe crisp Crownies)...just the slag stuff, from 1982 (lovingly referred to, here at The PUB, as Trevor Chappel's Underarm Brew...)[}:)][}:)][}:)] ;)

Whatever, we are .... serving the olives.... in tonights' Caesar Salad !! Good one Packman !! [^][^][^]

Also...on a more sombre note: since we are all one big; happy,happy, happy..... Trans-Tasman Bunch...think we should all observe a minute's silence at some time tonight, now that trading's over..for the day...for the cool dude ex Split Enz Drummer....who so tragically popped himself yesterday ...the ex-Drummer from Split Enz...& Crowded House.....

See that the fabulous Kiwi Finn brother's in the great muso tradition, said that the show had to go on...and were, saying no speeches, and allowing just their great music to do the talking last night...:(:(

What, with yet another Tragic loss of Life causing earthquake freak of nature, yesterday, in Indonesia, so soon after the Tsunami, sometimes puts it all into perspective....

Cheers for now guys,

Robbo

soulman
30-03-2005, 08:51 PM
Nice comeback.....Yes, the banks and Telstra had a nice U-TURN.

Interesting to see what will happen tomorrow, being the last day for the March quarter. The thing about funds manager is that they are judged on performance every quarter and not long term. Therefore they will do whatever they can to beat the benchmark and get recognition.

skinny
30-03-2005, 09:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney


quote:Originally posted by skinny

A slight flesh wound only I reckon.

I'd love to see an arterial vein get slashed; quality stocks are still hanging in there and NOTHING on my short and sweet long-term ASX/NZX watch list has dropped yet [:o)][}:)][}:)]


I didn't know one so thin could pack in that much evil into such a lean frame. A blood-thirsty economist. Who woulda thought? Are you all the same you economists? Do you drink goats blood at full moon while preparing your economic forecasts? Do you consult the fresh entrails of a slain pigs to discern underlying CPI's?

Is this the real reason Big Al has been steering the Fed the way he has? Because he wants to see global carnage?


Big Al is a p*ssy cat. Skinny would have been out putting the mark on all homes with new born babes long before this if sitting in his chair. As far as fork casting goes I strongly endorse the so called "rivers of blood" approach used by the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, otherwise known as The Bank of England. What is most important in any forecasting exercise is to avoid the need for any vein slashing by the forecaster [:o)]

p.s. Cooper check your mail.

Packersoldkidney
30-03-2005, 10:54 PM
Anyone with a name of 'Packersoldkidney' has got to be a class act, Robbo.

Skinny I guess we can expect something of biblical proportions when you get to take over the economic reigns. I just hope its water into wine and not a plague of locusts.

pago
31-03-2005, 07:54 PM
hi ,its interesting but more to come,dow up 130 last night and the red blood turns green/bucks.all eyes on the usa again tonight,i cant pick it,too many reports due and anything could happen.for all investors i hope its not an april fools day,cheers pago.

Halebop
31-03-2005, 08:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

Skinny I guess we can expect something of biblical proportions when you get to take over the economic reigns. I just hope its water into wine and not a plague of locusts.


:gasps: Skinnynomics!

robbo
01-04-2005, 10:17 PM
Bottom Line:

Turns out Packers was Right On the Money.

It was Olives in the Spew. Not Blood in the Greenback...

PHEW !! ;);) [:o)][:o)]

So that's One Nil to Packers... [8D][8D]

Looks like we all live to fight (...& trade[:p][:p]) another day ... Gang ...and IMO...vow to from here on in, eschew too many Olives...grrrr.... ;)

Cheers & Regards,

Robbo :):)

02-04-2005, 08:49 AM
I said there was at least one more technicolour yawn to come. before it was time to hunt for the olives or the false teeth.

pago
04-04-2005, 12:53 AM
hi,yeah,one more yawn to come,a slow gradual decline is ok,a crash is not,very little news from the usa next week except greenspan gives 3 speechs,expect,not not to much bargain buying, but anything could happen.cheers pago.

SimonSays
04-04-2005, 12:52 PM
I'm more concerned about the organised revaluation of the fixed and managed Chinese currency. The consequences are not simply that they will be able to buy more commodities from us. There are of course many other consequences. As they get themselves more organised they may also become far better negotiators on such things as iron ore and nickel. There are some lessons to be learned from Japan in the period between the 1960's and 1980's in particular.

SimonSays
04-04-2005, 02:34 PM
I now read today that Xinhua, the Chinese State Council (Cabinet equivalent) aim to strengthen macro-control measures to restrain overly rapid growth. The steel sector seems to be at the head of the agenda with a crackdown on steel exports and further steps to deal with the sharp rise of iron ore prices. Maybe they have employed the boys from Mt Gibson or Twiggy as consultants.

whiteheron
06-04-2005, 08:55 PM
Has the blood been mopped up ?

Great what a couple of days do isnt it ?

pago
06-04-2005, 09:39 PM
hi W.H.,i fear its not over yet,greenspan speech was soothing,two more speechs to come this week,it seems the oil price is a dominant factor,as is usa markets.a week is a short time,if everything moves gradually im not worried,its the crash senario that if it happens will set everything back 6 months ,cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
08-04-2005, 09:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

I've loaded up on Discovery, Legend, Barra, Herron and I'm looking at Reefton before close.



I picked one out and out winner among that lot. Discovery tumbled, Barra got a pummelling, Reefton did OK (it's only good for a trade at this stage). The jury is still out on Legend.

Packersoldkidney
15-04-2005, 12:29 PM
US markets are firmly in the crash zone. Tonight's trading in New York could mean there will be some bargains about on the ASX in the not to distant future. Almost everything is down today.

SimonSays
15-04-2005, 12:53 PM
With the military spending and military asset creation slowing as an impact to productivity and trade balance together with the revaluation of the currency of China there is only one way for Pax Americanus and its not up. [xx(]Australia should be OK though. [8D]

lucky
15-04-2005, 02:06 PM
crashes normally come when unexpected.

stephen
15-04-2005, 03:18 PM
She's looking pretty ugly out there. I'm glad I still have some cash. Some of the glamour shares are going down hard - look at FAN, for example.

SimonSays
15-04-2005, 03:55 PM
Hope you havent got any gold - that's about to get hit too. [xx(]

Moonshine
15-04-2005, 04:33 PM
Historically, the All Ord's has tracked in line with the Dow-Jones,... to the extent that on an averaged out basis, if the Dow was up overnight, the All Ord's would follow the next aus trading day.

The last 6 months or so, the resources sector has driven the All Ord's along it's own path of destiny, and the Dow has had little influence.

The last two weeks however has seen a strong return to the historical trend, and consecutive down days on the Dow has seen over 100pts (2.5%!!)wiped off the All Ords over yesterday and today.

It seems that all the theories underlying the strong growth of the last 8 months has just evaportaed because of jitters in the States. Hopefully everyone involved in this industry will review their "notes" made over the last 8 months and realise that the sky is not crashing down around them... but that there needs to be less of a correlation between the All Ord's performance and the Dow Jones.

The underlying reasons for the All Ord's boom in the last 8 months are still there...resources/materials prices are still HIGH!!

More long-term and less short-term emotions need to be considered.

SimonSays
15-04-2005, 04:45 PM
That's nice, whats wrong with this healthy market we are all currently experiencing ? The sky will crash down later without doubt. Just wait for the big plays by George and Warren. Maybe the IMF will dump their USD 42 Billion of gold into the market. Nice book profit of USD 34 Billion. Who knows ?

Mick100
15-04-2005, 04:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by SimonSays

Hope you havent got any gold - that's about to get hit too. [xx(]


I think that post may come back and bite you in the bum Simon

IMO, the PM's are probably going to do better than any other asset class over the next few months

,

Mick100
15-04-2005, 04:54 PM
Quote , Moonshine

"The underlying reasons for the All Ord's boom in the last 8 months are still there...resources/materials prices are still HIGH!!

More long-term and less short-term emotions need to be considered."

===============================

I agree Moonshine
I haven't heard of a slowdown in china as yet so the medium/long term is still looking good to me.

,

lucky
15-04-2005, 04:59 PM
yet the All Ords IS down 73 points (1.8%) today gotta be ugly. I hope the Dow stays in bed tonight and has a good rest.

15-04-2005, 05:45 PM
Lucky surely you want the Dow to put on its Glad Rags and climb mountains to night rest the next two nights any then really strive for the summit on monday.

kittydashwood
15-04-2005, 05:54 PM
Seems Bernie Schaeffer is expecting another drop.

This week, my Gold Dust blog, available as part of Schaeffer's Gold, has detailed a rather worrisome trend in the Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN -- 16.54). This "fear barometer" hesitated around the 17 threshold earlier this week before ultimately taking out this level and dropping to a new all-time low of 16.19. In other words ... fear has left the building.

As I said in this posting: "the environment looks uglier to me now than it did in late December. At least then, the QQQQ was trading near a high, which made the 'low volatility is not bearish in rising market' argument more plausible." In fact, yesterday's new low transpired on the same day that the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQQ -- 36.55) notched a new intraday nadir for 2005 (35.91, eclipsing the March 29 low of 35.94) and as we approach a peak earnings-reporting period. I cannot find a single word to describe this phenomenon, so I'll settle for a stream of consciousness ... amazing, astounding, mind-boggling, incredible, off the charts, beyond belief. It appears the only thing we have to fear is no fear itself.

Packersoldkidney
15-04-2005, 06:02 PM
Big night in New York tonight.

pago
15-04-2005, 06:34 PM
hiwhat is the worst short term scenario,dow drops 100plus tonight,expect os and nz to drop another 1.8/2% monday,if there is a 1987 like crash,i believe they now have computer programes in place to halt trading to stop the freefall caused by stoplosses/computer programes.obviously this wont prevent another dow down day on monday night,but it gives the market time to reconsider. the fear of inflation equals higher interest rates seems to have changed to a fear of declining consumer confidence/fall in company profits.somewhere these two contradictory sentements will balance out.but the usa economy has some major issues to address.imo, worst scenario,short term,5%,maybe 10% drop in your portfolio,i fear its not over yet,cheers pago.

Mick100
15-04-2005, 07:28 PM
What's with this obsession with the US

Our resources are being exported to china to build infastructure and supply manufacturers

The chinese people themselves are increasingly becoming consumers of china made products and there's 1.3 billion of them all wanting to live the good life.

The american consumption binge has to stop one day because they are doing it all on borrowed money. The americans are not as critical to the world economy as they themselves like to think they are. Who needs consumers who can't pay for what they are consuming. They are a drain on the world economy.

What's happening in the US is not as influencial to the world economy as it was a few yrs ago.

Mick

Cooper
15-04-2005, 07:39 PM
The US still has a large majority of the world's financial firms, capital etc Mick, and like it or not they still have the world's reserve currency. Where sentiment goes in the US, so too goes global sentiment. Although that may change in the future that hasn't changed yet. China is also a large exporter to the US.

pago
15-04-2005, 07:44 PM
hi mick, generally i agree,i see two indicators reversing the resources price boom,1,a significant drop in usa consumer confidence/they are not buying and 2 a fall in the china growth growth programe.the china growth may sustain the resources boom itself but not at the same level,cheers pago.

SimonSays
15-04-2005, 07:58 PM
I'm with Mick - Pax Americanus is dying . Having worked for two large US Multinationals, I have been watching this all happen for years and in different circumstances.

We are also so much closer to China than the USA in this part of the World. I have been to NYC three times in the last year and I sense the Yanks have little idea of what is happening in China and tend to view the subject from an ideological rather than a financial viewpoint. The World seems to be passing the US by in so many ways.

I do worry about the power that a few characters have there though and particularly if they got together. I have closely watched the early days of the commodity recovery with a large US metal producer and the name Soros was strongly linked before the natural demand cycle commenced. While the 87 crash had linkages to "artificial intelligence trading" I suspect the next one will come about for a totally different reason/phenomena/problem/event etc. I think we will see the rollercoaster run for some time in a low interest rate environment ( I remember when the US Prime was 20%).

Packersoldkidney
15-04-2005, 08:01 PM
Unfortunately as far as the stockmarket is concerned, it is still the case if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. Also remember how dependent on US cash China is: if that liquidity goes, through various scenarios, China's cheap days of funding their construction are well and truly gone. Then the **** will start to fall out of commodity prices.

China's economy is growing very fast but is only a minnow compared to the United States.

Think on this: higher US interest rates will attract money back to the US, it will also put a very fast break on US consumption, as most US households are leveraged to the hilt, meaning China's goods will not be purchased as much in the States. There will be less money going to China, and to attract funds the Chinese government will in turn have to raise their rates. The Chinese banking industry is a complete schmozzle: rife with dud loans, and to much inefficiency. The effect of higher rates will be like a gust of wind on a house of cards.

If the DOW and the Nasdaq tumble further, that is even less money available to US households, meaning even less expenditure by US citizens.

I can see some big pain coming ahead for the US: I agree that to an extent Australia is shielded from this. Even if China's growth stalls there is still a massive future deficit required to be met from producers of base metals and minerals. It's just that there is too much speculation built into the prices of these commodities at the moment, and I think they will initially fall hard before recovering somewhat.

The world's big problem is obviously that the US is doing the lion's share of the consumption: when the poop hits the fan over there - who else will step into the breach and start spending money to get things ticking over again?

My view is that the US sharemarkets are in for a prolonged and painful bear phase. The effect this will have on speculative pursuits worldwide could be devestating. I also think that those sectors of the worldwide economy that are involved in consumer debt are going to cop a bullet.

Cooper
15-04-2005, 08:10 PM
I agree POK. Most commodities have a speculative premium in their current prices, and that speculative premium is a result of US speculation.

Also, the US has been exporting cheap money/high money liquidity in order for it to be able to spend it's way out of it's recession. That has had an effect on worldwide money liquidity.

And the size of the US market for goods is still unmatched.

skinny
15-04-2005, 08:15 PM
Its at this point its well worth remembering the quote that stock markets have predicted 9 out of the past 5 recessions (something like that anyway). The latest incoming macro data does not show the world economy slowing much at all (IMF forecasts just released comment extensively on this).

Anyways, I've been largely cashed up since January and am not getting in yet with these gut wrenching drops going on; guess what I am saying is that I see no reason not to dip the toes back in the water though once things stabilise a bit.

Tinker
15-04-2005, 08:38 PM
The last paragraph of the second page of this annual report is interesting to me.

Averages are valuable, but just averages.

Cheers
Tinker

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2004ar/impnote04.html

Packersoldkidney
16-04-2005, 11:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Seems Bernie Schaeffer is expecting another drop.

This week, my Gold Dust blog, available as part of Schaeffer's Gold, has detailed a rather worrisome trend in the Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN -- 16.54). This "fear barometer" hesitated around the 17 threshold earlier this week before ultimately taking out this level and dropping to a new all-time low of 16.19. In other words ... fear has left the building.

As I said in this posting: "the environment looks uglier to me now than it did in late December. At least then, the QQQQ was trading near a high, which made the 'low volatility is not bearish in rising market' argument more plausible." In fact, yesterday's new low transpired on the same day that the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQQ -- 36.55) notched a new intraday nadir for 2005 (35.91, eclipsing the March 29 low of 35.94) and as we approach a peak earnings-reporting period. I cannot find a single word to describe this phenomenon, so I'll settle for a stream of consciousness ... amazing, astounding, mind-boggling, incredible, off the charts, beyond belief. It appears the only thing we have to fear is no fear itself.


S& P 500 has now formed a head and shoulders top. VXO volatility indicator at 16.6: pessimism reigns. This will either be a rapid meltdown or an outright crash.

yogi-in-oz
16-04-2005, 12:22 PM
:) :) :) :) :)

Hi folks,

As previously posted ... looking for a BIG world
event around 06-09 May 2005, to give us a low
in the markets (???).

An event, like a war with Iran, terrorism against
the Pommie elections/monarchy or even the capture
of bin Laden hisself, to put a positive spin on it ... :)

=====

happy days

yogi

P.S. ... 7th November 2006 = extreme market lows ... ????

:) :) :) :) :)

ASXIOU
16-04-2005, 01:47 PM
Well the Dow fell nearly 200 points overnight. Brace yourself people this could get real ugly on Monday!

OneUp
16-04-2005, 06:51 PM
The problem with the Chinese, and Asians in general, is that their savings rates are too high (a bit like the Scots really). The Americans have been filling the gap for a while, though this can't last forever. All save and no spend makes economy a dull boy. Also, it's worth keeping in mind that to a large extent China is experiencing an investment led boom, which as we know can dry up rather fast when confidence takes a hit.

Mick100
16-04-2005, 08:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

The problem with the Chinese, and Asians in general, is that their savings rates are too high (a bit like the Scots really). The Americans have been filling the gap for a while, though this can't last forever. All save and no spend makes economy a dull boy. Also, it's worth keeping in mind that to a large extent China is experiencing an investment led boom, which as we know can dry up rather fast when confidence takes a hit.


But it's the high savings rate of the chinese which is driving the investment led boom, surely.

I have to acknowlege that over investment could lead to some malinvestment. From what I understand, when it comes to borrowing money in china, it's who you know not what you know.

The banking sector is a problem in china and it will probably take a recession to prompt the chinese to sort out this part of the economy.
There's no sign of that happening at this stage.

,

tommy
16-04-2005, 11:03 PM
Hi oneup,

High savings rate is not necessarily a bad thing... high savings allow banks to lend more money to businesses (remember money multiplier in economics!) which can be a great growth driver for the economy as a whole (companies will hire more employees so gross domestic consumption will naturally increase, who cares if the employees are spending proportionately more or not on an individual basis if it's exports that are generating earnings) provided that the government can indirectly "steer" where the money is going, which is exactly what Japan has been going for decades to achieve miracle growth; a practice that works as long as you can control "bad debt"...

Cooper
16-04-2005, 11:15 PM
Oneup is referring to savings as an alternative to consumption. The more you save, the less you spend. Therefore the buyers for the growth in asian production are the US, who are borrowing to consume. If a country is in a recession then the Government will loosen monetary policy in order to promote spending, but if the public decides to simply save this money then it doesn't have the desired stimulatory effect.

He's also referring to the very liquid nature of investment funds... because China is being fuelled by investment money should sentiment turn negative then this will have a negative effect on Chinese growth as the money fuelling the boom moves elsewhere.

Mick... China does indeed have to look at reforming it's banking system... there was a wee bit of a taste after they allowed the interest rates to move but they're certainly still a long way off being "reformed".

Packersoldkidney
16-04-2005, 11:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by tommy

Hi oneup,

High savings rate is not necessarily a bad thing... high savings allow banks to lend more money to businesses (remember money multiplier in economics!) which can be a great growth driver for the economy as a whole (companies will hire more employees so gross domestic consumption will naturally increase, who cares if the employees are spending proportionately more or not on an individual basis if it's exports that are generating earnings) provided that the government can indirectly "steer" where the money is going, which is exactly what Japan has been going for decades to achieve miracle growth; a practice that works as long as you can control "bad debt"...




Hiya, Cooper, Mick, Tommy and others.

Tommy: Japan has been in a deflationary crisis for well over a decade. It's equity markets have crumbled over that time - its economy is still in dire need of reform. The recent temporary upswing in its sharemarkets only highlighted a decade of misery for investors who bought into the 'Japanese miracle'. Decent returns from the Nikkei are still a fair way off - as is Japanese reform. If ever you wanted to choose an index that had companies with fantastic fundamentals like low p/e's etc, the Nikkei would certainly be one of them. It would also be one of the worst for comparative rate of return.

Personally, I blame RMB Brave, who is a poster on these threads (mainly on cricket). Since he has been there the Japanese are not spending enough money, and saving way too much. Actually, that was always their problem, but since he has been there the Japanese miracle has turned wine into water.

The problem remains: who will do the world's consumption when the well runs dry in the US? My pick is the South Island of New Zealand, I don't know why, but I just think when the US falls that it will be places like Timaru, Geraldine, Christchurch and Temuka that will lead the globe into a new golden age of South-Island-led-consumption-that-sparks-worldwide-goodtimes.

I have a feeling that when history looks back on the early 21st century, they will say the global economic baton was passed from the United States onto the South Island of New Zealand. In particular expenditure on sheep and sheep related products, sometimes of a woollen variety, but mostly 'fantastic plastic', dragged the world out of a deep recession, and also shifted the focus of global might from New York, Tokyo and London, and onto Westport, Picton and Queenstown.

Skinny may have a deeper insight into Japan and also the global shift underway to the island that is south of the North Island. Or maybe not.

tommy
17-04-2005, 12:28 AM
Hi packers,


quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney
Tommy: Japan has been in a deflationary crisis for well over a decade. It's equity markets have crumbled over that time - its economy is still in dire need of reform. The recent temporary upswing in its sharemarkets only highlighted a decade of misery for investors who bought into the 'Japanese miracle'. Decent returns from the Nikkei are still a fair way off - as is Japanese reform. If ever you wanted to choose an index that had companies with fantastic fundamentals like low p/e's etc, the Nikkei would certainly be one of them. It would also be one of the worst for comparative rate of return.


Totally agree with your view on Japan mate, especially in regards to the need of reform... that is exactly why I said "a practice that works as long as you can control "bad debt"!" It only works to a certain extent and there is a big price, but if it works enough to drive a dirt-poor country bombed to ashes with zero resources after WW2 into becoming the world's second biggest economy, it surely wasn't the worst political/economic tactic was it? Reform in the land of the rising (or falling) sun however is not enough though, because the problem is not only in the financial sector; there are also demographic strains (fastest aging society ever in history!) meaning there's not much of a bright future without dramatic measures... it will be VERY hard to find a solution to Japan, a deindustrialized, high-population-density, aging society with limited resources, which still suffers from a crippled financial sector, but boasts one of the strictest immigration policies in the world!

China may have a lot of bad debt but who knows how much... we'll find out when there are laws for disclosure and accounting rules (if ever!)

As for NZ becoming the next center of the universe...mmm... I have no idea. I will buy you a crate of Asahi beer if that happens within my generation:)

tommy
17-04-2005, 12:42 AM
Hi Cooper!


quote:Originally posted by Cooper

Oneup is referring to savings as an alternative to consumption. The more you save, the less you spend. Therefore the buyers for the growth in asian production are the US, who are borrowing to consume. If a country is in a recession then the Government will loosen monetary policy in order to promote spending, but if the public decides to simply save this money then it doesn't have the desired stimulatory effect.
People can still save and borrow at the SAME TIME and continue to consume though can't they... depending on how the tax system is structured to minimize tax burden (I certainly do that!) People will borrow to the high sky if its tax deductable, but not necessarily if its not... having said that I have no idea what the Chinese tax system is so I shall abstain from getting into this discussion any further[|)] sorry for babbling mate!!

Another way to get out of recession is expansionary fiscal policy despite the time lag of its effects if you are happy not to rely on individual spending (governments can be mad enough to blow their budgets out to spend their way out of recession at the cost of inflation!)


quote:
He's also referring to the very liquid nature of investment funds... because China is being fuelled by investment money should sentiment turn negative then this will have a negative effect on Chinese growth as the money fuelling the boom moves elsewhere.

I think the risk-reward balance presented in China is one-in-a-life's-time sort of thing and therefore I am not sure whether investment funds will be "rational" enough to pull their plug immediately even if the sentiment turns negative without ascertaining that it is permanent... and where will the money go to? US? Europe? India? Mmmm....

k1w1
17-04-2005, 04:49 AM
Packers, you ommitted the small WestCoast village of Granity from the list of emerging South Island towns soon to replace the US as consumption powerhouses. My grandmother came from there.

At the last election it was the only place where the votes for the marijuana reform party topped the poll.

Mick100
17-04-2005, 10:00 AM
I agree with Tommy here

If citizens refuse to spend such as in china then the govt. can increase spending through changes to fiscal policy to maintain aggregate expenditure.

Alot of the resources going to china are being used to build infastructure - roads, bridges, airports, seaports, telecommunications, powerlines, dams, etc.
I can't see the chinese stopping or even slowing this expenditure if the US goes into recession.
These infastructure building programs are 5-10-15 yr plans.
If the chinese govt. put their industrialisation on hold there would be a revolt by the rural population. these people also want to join the more properous urban population.

.

Cooper
17-04-2005, 01:28 PM
Sure, but expansionary Fiscal policies (and I'm making the leap of assuming this will mean a deficit) simply mean that the economy is borrowing from future expected earnings in order to boost fiscal spending now. Either taxpayers are going to get socked with the deficit (plus interest) further down the track as increased tax, or the economy will have to grow while fiscal spending levels remain fairly static... either way it's a short term measure to lessen cyclical volatility, not an isolated stroke of economic genius. Therefore it has it's limits, and Governments should be cautious of how much they expand fiscal policy (shhh... don't tell W).

Even if the resources going to China are to build infrastructure, with all the (cheap!) capital floating around there is a risk of a number of "white elephant" projects being developed which aren't even going to justify the capital spent. These aren't good infrastructural projects. Not every dollar which is going to China is going to be used in an optimal manner, and their financial systems can't act to lessen this fear because they are in need of reform. There is also a developing discrepancy between the haves and the have nots in China, which while not an immediate concern, strikes me as likely to create some angry people given it's supposedly a Communist state.

If the US goes into recession, China lose exports into one of their biggest (if not actually their biggest) market. The evidence is in the buying of US debt by China... they are protecting their substantial export market to the US and they are doing so because they recognise that the US market and US consumption are driving demand for Chinese goods.


POK... No doubt about the attractiveness of the Sth Island as a global powerhouse-to-be. We're ready. Just as long as we get some nukes and the military power to protect our interests abroad. We also need a bit more money for our plans to being the consumption powerhouse we deserve to be... wages aren't flash on a global comparison so if you could hook us up with some funds that would be just chipper...

SimonSays
17-04-2005, 07:46 PM
Nukes ! And it used to be called the Land of the Long White Put Option.:)

trendy
18-04-2005, 07:54 AM
Could be Aussie blood on the floor today!

ASX faces another horror session
By Michael Evans
April 18, 2005

The biggest slump on the Australian market in two years is expected to continue today after a horror session on Wall Street highlighted fears about the health of the global economy.

Some investors are suggesting the local market may struggle to finish the year in positive territory amid signs the bull market has run out of steam.

The Australian market, which posted its biggest daily fall in two years on Friday, has already fallen 6 per cent from record highs set shortly before US officials raised interest rates late last month.

Again Wall Street has provided a negative lead, with US markets posting their third straight one-day loss exceeding 100 points on Friday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 191.24 points to 10,087.51, its lowest close since last November, to take losses for the week to 3.6 per cent.

The largest fall in more than two years was prompted by fears US manufacturing activity and retail sales were slowing.

Concerns about the health of the global economy have caused metal prices to fall, hitting local resource stocks that had buoyed the Australian market this year.

Investors are now worried the local sell-off could extend to 10 per cent.

"I think there's a reasonable chance it could fall another 5 to 10 per cent," said Schroder Investment Management's head of strategy, Simon Doyle, adding he thought the market would struggle to finish 2005 in positive territory.

Company earnings were starting to look shaky as the economy slowed and interest rates rose, he said, and falling commodity prices were making resource stock valuations look stretched.

"I think it'll be a negative day. The market will be down at least 1 per cent, I think, and potentially a bit more," Mr Doyle said.

Adding to negative market sentiment, the International Monetary Fund's chief Rodrigo Rato warned at the weekend that global markets could stage an abrupt correction if governments did not address the serious imbalances in the world economy.

He said the global financial system was out of kilter because of the huge US current account deficit, weak growth in Europe and Japan, the low savings rate of US consumers and inflexible currency regimes in Asia.

But the Treasurer, Peter Costello, said at the weekend that the market was taking a "breather" and market fundamentals remained strong.

Since the market peaked last month, only one top 50 Australian company, Suncorp Metway, has posted a positive return. It is up about 0.5 per cent.

Goldman Sachs JBWere trader Richard Coppleson said there were fears the sell-off "will worry many that it could easily extend into a 10 per cent correction and, as a result, it will send many [institutional investors] scurrying into the hills and watching from afar until the danger either passes or is confirmed that the top has been seen and a full-scale correction has begun".

Moonshine
19-04-2005, 03:07 PM
So far an encouraging return to form from all concerned me thinks!
Most majors re-taking some ground lost over the last 3-4 days.
Some minors re-taking a lot of ground lost over the last 3-4 days.

Here's to praying for no more shakes on Wall Street...

tommy
19-04-2005, 07:45 PM
Is the ASX "correction" now over, or was today's performance just a minor hiccup in the long-term downward spiral driven by the pessimism in the US share market? Many stocks have not been cheap at this level for a long time, and I'm wondering whether this is a good opportunity for "buy in gloom" ... but I am terrible at timing the market so not quite sure!

Packersoldkidney
19-04-2005, 08:00 PM
Tommy: the US markets are really looking very shaky. The window of time for a bullish reversal in that market is fast drawing to a close. If you are doing your buying on the ASX on the basis of what might happen in the US markets, (which is a sound notion, given that we track the US markets closely) I might be holding off for a while on the long/medium term trades, and sticking with things a little more short term instead, and wait until the US thing plays itself out a bit. Fundamentally and technically we are much better of on the ASX compared to the DOW or the Nasdaq, but when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches cold

This is not advice, just an opinion: I'm sure others out there have a different point of view.

whiteheron
19-04-2005, 08:07 PM
tommy

Timing the market to catch the best time to buy with real accuracy is all but impossible in my opinion as there are so many ingredients to the market price for a stock or stocks at any point in time
, however , having said that there do seem to be some particularly well ( low ) priced stocks at present

I know that it is not much of a help but time will tell when the best time was

You just have to weigh up the position and make your call using all information available to you

pago
19-04-2005, 10:14 PM
tommy,just another opinion,among many,the usa economy has some major issues to address,they may find a way out of the predicament,eg,the chinese may float the yuan ,unlikely,but maybe increase the yuan value,more likely given the us threat of imposing 27% traffifs on chinese goods in the near future.the reality is until/unless the usa address their issues their remains a constant high risk of a usa crash/meltdown which will ,its obvious,affect every economy worldwide.if or when this may happen,noone knows,is it happening now,if not next month,etc,etc.short term ,ie,2/3weeks the dow may settle/range trade if the profit announments from companies are good and there are no inflation/consumer confidence falls surprises.i fear its not over yet,the risk remains,any real resolution of these issues requires political intervention,if that happens,dont bet on it,but,things may improve ,cheers pago.

tommy
20-04-2005, 01:01 AM
Thanks for your replies packers, whiteheron and pago,

Shame the ASX can't behave independently of the US market... today the reports in the US don't seem to be as bleak as expected though.
Perhaps the OZ market will start to pick up again until the next wave of pessimism hits the US? Keeping my fingers crossed...

As I am still a newbie to sharetrading, I am starting to get an idea of fundamentals analysis but have no idea about technical analysis... can you kindly recommend me any links/resources that are good for learning? I think technical analysis can be extremely useful as the macro environment becomes more volatile... Thanks all in advance :)

Packersoldkidney
20-04-2005, 01:02 AM
Dow on fire as I write. They liked a few of those figures they pore over.

Packersoldkidney
20-04-2005, 01:14 AM
Hey, I'm the same Tommy, especially in regards to technical analysis. There's a site I occasionally pop into for technical analysis of the US markets, and its alphaking.com. (go to the archives tab, and then 'newsletter archives') Since I aint too good at reading the charts, I get someone else to do it for me.

Moonshine
20-04-2005, 01:14 AM
Hi POK,

Do you mind if i ask what URL you are using to track the DOW in real time?
Do you have a subscription to some site, or is there a live (or 20 minute delay) feed to a publicly accessible URL?

Thanks.

Packersoldkidney
20-04-2005, 01:17 AM
Don't normally follow the Dow on the internet, but if I do I go to http://www.dowjones.com/. Normally I follow it and the reaction to it on CNBC, or Bloomberg TV on the pay.

whiteheron
20-04-2005, 09:25 AM
tommy

For some good examples of technical analysis have a look at postings by Phaedrus
He is tops on TA
His charts are very clear and his explanations excellent , but he only posts on NZ stocks

Studying a few of his chart postings will give you a good insight into the world of TA

Good luck

SimonSays
20-04-2005, 10:08 AM
Good to see you guys discussing/debating the China effect that I pointed to a week or two back. There are of course direct and indirect consequences of a revaluation - some immediately imapcting and some taking a very long time. My understanding is that the debate in the Central Bank (equivalent) in China has led to probability of minor revaluation upward into an agreed "snake" i.e. a band set at maybe 15 - 20 % +- launch quote against USD in which the currency would be allowed to float. As someone previously mentioned this is becoming a matter of geo-politics.

Cooper
20-04-2005, 10:35 AM
Have a look at the inflation discrepancies between the US and China, Simon. Given time these discrepancies could mean the Yuan does not need to be repegged. While a revaluation is the most likely result IMHO it is not the only result. China could decide it is in their better interests not to play ball.

SimonSays
20-04-2005, 10:48 AM
Correct, but I think there will be a small revaluation upward into the snake and then we will of course see the effects of speculation as well as trade based behavour.

Cooper
20-04-2005, 10:57 AM
I have read an argument that a small revaluation (up to a point less than that which the market believes the Yuan should be at) will not occur because it would simply signal that the Yuan will be revalued again... a precedence set... and because it is still considered undervalued by the market it will result in speculative pressure being mounted... ie an "all or nothing" argument.

But the US will be getting frustrated and with the added pressure from the EU (and the inherent moral high ground) you would expect the US to start twisting the screws (tariffs) fairly soon... Bush's fiscal responsibility seems to be an oxymoron and the US$ devaluation might be the easiest door to open. Should be an interesting period.

tommy
20-04-2005, 01:29 PM
Thanks for the tips boys, I shall start exploring the mysterious world of technical analysis!

In the meantime, looks like the ASX overall isn't doing too bad:)

tommy
21-04-2005, 01:28 AM
Inflation up in US now, does this mean bad news for ASX again? Sick of the US dragging down the OZ market... should I start buying gold bullions?!

__________________
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/economy.html?.v=7

Inflation Surge Is Biggest in Five Months
Wednesday April 20, 9:25 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
March Inflation Shoots Up 0.6 Percent, Biggest Surge in Five Months, on Energy Costs

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent in March, the biggest inflation surge in five months, as the costs of energy, clothing and airline fares all rose sharply.

The Labor Department said last month's increase in the Consumer Price Index, the most closely watched inflation gauge, followed a 0.4 percent rise in February and left consumer inflation rising at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the first three months of this year. That was a full percentage point above the 3.3 percent rise in prices for all of 2004.

The new report showed that even outside of food and energy, there were significant price pressures last month. The so-called core rate of inflation rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in March, the largest jump in 2 1/2 years and double what economists had expected. It reflected higher prices for clothing, hotel rooms, airline tickets and medical care.

The government's new report on inflation showed significantly higher price pressures than had been observed in Tuesday's report on wholesale inflation, which showed a similar overall increase of 0.7 percent, reflecting a sharp jump in energy prices, but only a tiny 0.1 percent increase in prices outside of energy and food.

Economists said the new inflation report was likely to raise worries at the Federal Reserve because of price pressures becoming evident outside of the energy area. The Fed has been raising interest rates at a gradual pace of small quarter-point moves since June of last year.

The higher inflation pressures are coming at a time when a number of reports in recent weeks have shown economic weakness, from a disappointing employment rise in March to lower-than-expected retail sales.

"We are getting slower growth and higher inflation numbers. The Fed is caught," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "The Fed would like to keep interest rates low to keep the economy moving but on the other hand they have to fight against inflation."

Wyss predicted that the central bank would raise rates another quarter-point when Fed officials next meet on May 3 and probably continue with quarter-point increases in future months.

Economists and the Federal Reserve track the core inflation figure closely, believing it is a better gauge of underlying inflation pressures since the overall price number can swing widely in response to the volatile energy and food components.

The 0.4 percent rise in the prices outside of food and energy in March followed a 0.3 percent increase in February, which had been the first uptick from four straight months of more moderate 0.2 percent gains in the core inflation rate.

So far this year, the core rate for consumer prices are rising at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the first three months of the year, the fastest quarterly inflation spurt for core prices since the summer of 2001. For all of last year, core inflation rose by just 2.2 percent.

For March, energy costs shot up 4 percent, the biggest one-month gain since a similar 4 percent rise last October. Gasoline prices climbed 7.9 percent, reflecting the shock motorists have gotten at the pump. There should be a further jump for April given that motorists nationwide are now paying an average of $2.28 per gallon.

Food costs rose by a more moderate 0.2 percent in March, following an even smaller 0.1 percent gain in February. Price declines for pork and fresh fruits helped to moderate price increases for beef, poultry and vegetables.

Outside of energy and food, clothing costs, which had been declining, jumped 0.8 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain in 12 months.

Airline ticke

pago
21-04-2005, 06:16 PM
hi tommy,oz/nz markets down today as expected but not as much as i expected.tonight in the usa,greenspan speaks and the leading indicators report is out,just what we dont need?a useful site for usa daily economic news is econoday,i hope this works,www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp cheers pago.

Cooper
21-04-2005, 06:35 PM
Most brokerage reports I'm reading out of Aus are still cautiously bullish (although that's how they make their money!).

I think I need to sit down and do some reading over the weekend to try and formulate some kind of an opinion. Will get back to you if/when that happens.

pago
25-04-2005, 08:50 PM
hi,very quiet,things are happening,china are moving to revalue also to impose a license on mineral imports,any views simon on the impact on usa of these moves,i see this as usa positive,but marginal and longterm.cheers pago.

pago
26-04-2005, 07:38 AM
hi,maybe china is not going to revalue its currency ,yet,conflicting news items,cheers pago.

JBmurc
26-04-2005, 09:54 AM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

[quote]Originally posted by tommy

Hi oneup,

High savings rate is not necessarily a bad thing... high savings allow banks to lend more money to businesses (remember money multiplier in economics!) which can be a great growth driver for the economy as a whole (companies will hire more employees so gross domestic consumption will naturally increase, who cares if the employees are spending proportionately more or not on an individual basis if it's exports that are generating earnings) provided that the government can indirectly "steer" where the money is going, which is exactly what Japan has been going for decades to achieve miracle growth; a practice that works as long as you can control "bad debt"...



;)

I have a feeling that when history looks back on the early 21st century, they will say the global economic baton was passed from the United States onto the South Island of New Zealand. In particular expenditure on sheep and sheep related products, sometimes of a woollen variety, but mostly 'fantastic plastic', dragged the world out of a deep recession, and also shifted the focus of global might from New York, Tokyo and London, and onto Westport, Picton and Queenstown.

;)-Southland alone has massive coal&crude oil resources, with advances in technologly the GREAT SOUTHERN BASIN could be large even on the world scale ;) billions of barrels of sweet crude ,coal can also be converted into oil with today tech.In total southlands could be sitting on major $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
land&housing&rent is cheap , with invercargill been originally built for 100,000+ pop (50,000odd 04) there is much land for development ;) maybe not if but when;)

Moonshine
28-04-2005, 01:51 PM
It firmly seems that any confidence that existed in the market prior to the FMG scare and BHP backdown on price rises has completely evaporated now.

Most resource stocks are volatile and firmly entrenched in the start of downward trend... whose duration is anyone's guess.

Uranium is providing the only real shining light now... but even that seems quite tightly guarded.

This correction certainly doesn't seem over yet.

Packersoldkidney
03-05-2005, 03:00 PM
A slow death; though I think at some stage things might gather pace.

Someone wake me up when the next bull market comes round.

Just kidding: some great shorting opportunities presenting themselves.

Cooper
03-05-2005, 03:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

A slow death; though I think at some stage things might gather pace.

Someone wake me up when the next bull market comes round.

Just kidding: some great shorting opportunities presenting themselves.


After initially being a little more bearish than you I think I've now become more bullish POK... I now only hold four stocks, two of which could be considered defensive and the other two are spec, with good prospects.

I think as long as we all realise that the situation has changed, that the market is valuing companies at lower PE ratios and that we should have slightly damper price targets, and that good news isn't necessarily going to mean the SP will bolt (espec. in the specs) we will be fine.

Still very wary of small cap spec co's though. Market seems to have a genuine hatred for those without good earnings and proven resources. I'm cautious but optimistically so... there is still good value around.

lucky
04-05-2005, 01:45 PM
What are you ozzies doing over there, The AllOrds is getting a thrashing, how many down days have you had in the last couple of weeks, pull your socks up.

tommy
04-05-2005, 02:43 PM
Hi lucky,

Yeah, things are getting worse from the look of it today, at this rate we'll dive below 3900 by closing... is this the beginning of a crash or something? Feeling a bit nervous, this "correction" is a bit big isn't it?

nelehdine
04-05-2005, 03:03 PM
Everyday the All Ords starts off brightly but by early afternoon the selling momentum just keeps building up ...

tracker
04-05-2005, 03:21 PM
broken down resistance etc , shorts are having a ball
tracker

ASXIOU
04-05-2005, 03:38 PM
the market is just having a 'healthy' correction. It was always predicted to happen. Even during the prime of the bull run late last year many people were trying to predict 'when' this correction would happen not 'if' it would happen. It won't last forever and I'm sure in a few months we will look back at certain stocks and say 'If only I had bought it back then'. Long term fundamentals are still in tack and many stocks are now trading on very nice prospective PE and div yields.

OneUp
04-05-2005, 03:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU

It won't last forever and I'm sure in a few months we will look back at certain stocks and say 'If only I had bought it back then'. Long term fundamentals are still in tack and many stocks are now trading on very nice prospective PE and div yields.


That's my view too. Any ideas on which stocks to buy? Have a bit of cash to dispense in the next couple of weeks.

lucky
04-05-2005, 03:44 PM
and down another " healthy " 1% today.

nelehdine
04-05-2005, 04:23 PM
Some very good companies getting absolutely smashed today ... a few examples that stand out

EXL -50
RIN -32
QBE -30
SGB -70 !!! after yesterdays result ... amazing
WES -50
TOL -35

SEC
04-05-2005, 04:58 PM
I mentioned on another thread the XAO can fall to 3850 and the 2 year uptrend remains intact. We're not far off now but I reckon 3850 is about low as it gets. There are bargains everywhere for those with a war chest.

SEC

OneUp
04-05-2005, 05:31 PM
SEC, you are the guru stock picking champ, so do you mind if I ask what you like the look of currently? (Most welcome to keep your own consel but if you are able to share any ideas it would be much appreciated :)).

I myself still like the look of TRS, which has held up reasonably well the last month except for today. Other retailers like BRZ also starting to look pretty cheap (and a Director bought recently). WCG also getting back to bargain levels IMO.

nelehdine
04-05-2005, 05:35 PM
TOL,WES,BHP,BSL,BBG,RIO, the list goes on ... excellent buying for the med/long term ... short term trading ... WHO KNOWS ??? !!!

SEC
04-05-2005, 10:05 PM
1up, looks like you're interested in a few retail stocks. I'm short retail and have been for a few months now. Too many have issued profit warnings for me to consider investing in the sector for a while yet.

I'm looking at those that have recently reported profit forecasts are on track yet have been slammed anyway. Also, I only consider stocks I can margin lend against, which mainly limits to the ASX300. Do some research on SMS, DOW ($850M new contracts), and KZL (cash cost 23c/lb Zn, would have made shítloads even in 2001).

I'm still bullish on coal and zinc. All coal stocks have fallen depsite no change in 05 contract prices or forecasts (similar prices until at least 2009). Re zinc, have a look at the LME inventory levels over the past six months to get an idea about the impending supply tightness in 2006.

My out-of-left-fielders include VLL and SDG. Neither have large exposures to the falling buy-to-let or Sydney markets and have been unjustifiably oversold.

I'll close on noting that a year ago, almost to the day, the Chinese Prime Minister hinted at moves to slow down the Chinese economy. Resources stocks plunged and stayed low for weeks - the market declared "it was the end of the bull run for resources". The herd sold down BHP to $11.50, SMS to $10.50, CEY to $2.60, WOR to $2.80, and MCC to $1.20. Until then, I had never really considered buying coal and other resource stocks...

SEC

OneUp
04-05-2005, 10:23 PM
Thanks for the tips. I'm not bullish on retail generally. But I think TRS will come out relatively unscathed if we see a depressed retail environment due to the nature of what they sell, very low gearing, huge free cash flows and competitive edge. BRZ I had intended to sell back in Feb and put into TRS but decided to hold on (d'oh!) to so I could take advantage of a margin loan at some point in the future (that future being where we saw low stock prices...i.e. about now). Has been a long slide since, but now I wonder whether it's been a tad overdone. At any rate I think BRZ's more likely to be affected by a downturn, so would be more likely to pick up more TRS in the near term.

Will be sure to hold on to my shiny new CEY shares. Is that your pick of the coalers in this rout (or do you prefer EXL or MCC?). I note GCL has been put to the sword more than most. Will have a close look at the other stocks you've recommended, cheers mate.

lucky
05-05-2005, 09:33 AM
Come on all you Ozzies...out of bed...grab a feed and step up to the plate, we want to see pleanty of buying action today and get that index of yours up and running again. Stiff upper lips chaps

trendy
05-05-2005, 10:03 AM
Lucky don't be tough on our Aussie friends as they will ask the same of the Kiwi's today. Heck the NZX is down to 0.65% already today with 1hr of trading.:D

skinny
06-05-2005, 09:25 AM
Hi guys and gals, the skinny global hedge funds Australian arm has taken a wee bit of a battering lately (thankfully the NZ arm was wound down earlier this year) but if Dr. John Edwards is right it may all be just a temporary blip -- bit like NZ he is calling it a supply-side constrained slowdown...

The politics of Australia's economic problems
By John Edwards
Published: May 4 2005 20:29 | Last updated: May 4 2005 20:29

After the longest expansion in its history, is the Australian economic miracle over? The country breezed through the Asian financial crisis, the collapse of the global technology bubble and even weathered a drought that has cut farm output by a third. But, after a charmed 14-year run, output growth abruptly slowed to 1.5 per cent last year and neared zero in the fourth quarter.


The current account deficit meanwhile has reached a 40-year high of 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product. House price growth, after more than doubling in the six years to 2004, tumbled through last year and in some areas, actually fell. Bothered by the prospect of rising inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate in March and may raise it again.

Like Tony Blair in the UK, John Howard, the Australian prime minister, has won successive elections largely on the country's strong economic performance. Unlike Mr Blair, however, Mr Howard has not yet fixed the boundary for his own departure, creating uncertainty about his deputy, the treasurer. And now, Australia's sudden growth downturn is confronting Mr Howard's Liberal-National coalition government with the first serious challenge to its economic management record. The economic news has given the opposition Labor Party under Kim Beazley a poll boost after its devastating electoral loss late last year. At the same time, Mr Howard is reasserting his command over economic policy, crushing the hopes of Peter Costello, his deputy and treasurer, for an early and orderly succession to the top job.

As one of the most successful economies in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Australia's troubles also have implications for other economies. The current experience, for example, appears to vindicate those who warned that the combination of rapidly rising house prices and household borrowing might prolong an illusory expansion, but only at the price of a deeper downturn when the bubble burst.

Beneath the surface, the GDP numbers are not quite as they seem. Business investment remains strong in Australia. Home building is certainly declining, but that was not only expected but also welcomed. Household consumption is quite firm. Employment has picked up solidly. The unemployment rate is now lower than it has been for more than a quarter-century.

The unexpected weakness has been in exports. After increasing briskly over the year to June 2004, export growth stopped. The problem is not lack of demand but shortage of product. This is most apparent in metals exports, which fell in volume over 2004 despite rising prices. The house price boom has been deflated by interest rate increases, but without deflating the economy. Yet the impact on consumption has been zero. Household consumption growth last year rose to about the average of the past decade.

Australia's current account deficit is indeed formidable but is largely driven by the investment boom. Australian gross national savings as a share of GDP have been running at about 19 per cent for the past decade. At 26 per cent in the 2003 fourth quarter, investment is a substantially higher share of GDP than it has been for half a century. The difference between the two is the current account deficit. As home building winds down, so will investment overall. Combined with increasing exports and some moderation in import growth, the investment slowdown will see the current account deficit declining as a share of GDP by the end of this year.

Australia's real problem is that it has not believed its luck. At the beginning of its 15th year of uninterrupted growth, it is ill-

Packersoldkidney
06-05-2005, 03:19 PM
Skinny: Australia desperately requires massive spending on infrastructure, in particular transport infrastructure. Else we will still be whining about an inability to capitalise on the next resources boom to come around, let alone this one.

06-05-2005, 03:59 PM
Skinny & POK Australia badly needs a new government that is not stuck in the same rut it has beenfor last 10 years

Packersoldkidney
06-05-2005, 04:30 PM
True, Enigma. Unfortunately we would be in for more of the same. Australia's big problem is that the politicians are too focused on the short-term, namely how they will get voted back in. Four years is too short a term for us, I think, as we seem to be either coming out of an election or running into one all the time. The politicians are too involved in playing for popularity rather than making decisions that might be electorally unpopular, yet would still be for the benefit of the country.

06-05-2005, 04:52 PM
POK unfortunately some body might have to use the african method of government control before they see sense especially now they control the upper house to.

Cooper
06-05-2005, 10:13 PM
Hope so Skinny.

07-05-2005, 11:17 AM
FOWL MOUTH big E hate to see you as a HEAD of any GOVENMENT.. [^][^]

07-05-2005, 05:17 PM
King far better than a blind man like you

09-05-2005, 10:25 AM
THICK brick norman z rogers can you prove BLINDNESS.. [^]

09-05-2005, 03:18 PM
King YES only a blind simpleton would still be raving on about BGR & Postie Plus.

09-05-2005, 05:51 PM
THICK brick norman z rogers tell the bit again about my WIFE.. w a n k er.. [^]

Tinker
09-05-2005, 06:06 PM
Good to see the quality of repartee is up there with the best!

Keep it up chaps:D.

Cheers
Tinker

09-05-2005, 08:17 PM
The King not a plank of wood just THE WHOLE TREE.

pago
09-05-2005, 09:21 PM
hi,enigma and king,please get over it,agree to disagree,move on,or take it ofline,no offense intended but this is becoming tedious,cheers pago.

Longtack
09-05-2005, 09:28 PM
Pago - wiv you on that, but it's His Majesty's spelling that I abhor.[V]

pago
17-05-2005, 07:48 PM
hi ,april is gone,may is uncertain,but i get a feeling the market is balancing out,the risk of a big further decline still remains but the dynamics are slowly changing/politics in action,just perhaps any possible downside may be delayed.the oz resource sector has taken a big hit,but there are real buying choices right now on companies with real income on low p.e.s.im interested in your views,cheers pago.

Mick100
17-05-2005, 08:20 PM
Yeah, I'm in agreement pago

Have done some buying over the past week

Hoping that I havn't jumped the gun

,

lucky
18-05-2005, 10:06 AM
pago...hope your right mate, what are you Ozzies going to spill on the floor next...you must be just about out of blood.

SEC
31-05-2005, 09:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I mentioned on another thread the XAO can fall to 3850 and the 2 year uptrend remains intact. We're not far off now but I reckon 3850 is about low as it gets. There are bargains everywhere for those with a war chest.

SEC


Turned out 3886 was the low, set on 5 May, so the 2+ year uptrend remains intact.

Of interest is how the All Ords has significantly underperformed the ASX200 since late March. There was a difference of 4 points on March 29, which increased to 53 points on May 23 as the herd sold small caps and bought blue chips. The differential has usually been less than 20 in the past year.

That differential is reducing again and in the past 6 trading days has dropped to 36 as the market realises the selling of small caps was overdone. Look to see the differential reduce further over the coming weeks - do your bit as well!

SEC

Disc: A Small Cap fan, only MAP held in the Top 100.

Gofish.
01-06-2005, 11:32 AM
ex todays SMH

Share bargains galore but the funds aren't buying
By Alan Kohler
June 1, 2005

A lot of analysts and investors are saying they can't find any value in the market at the moment and are staying out of it. Well, they're not looking hard enough.
After a 13 per cent correction, peppered by some huge maulings, the small-cap end looks a cornucopia of value. Likewise many of the resources stocks - both large and small. Many of the maulings have been deserved, such as Multiplex, but many have been overdone, such as Newcrest. In general, good value is easy to find.
One reason for the bearish sentiment and the overreaction to profit downgrades is that there is a cash drought: the institutional supply of funds has largely dried up. Broker opinion tends to follow the money rather than the other way around. Institutions are withholding cash; therefore there must be no value to be found.
In fact, fund trustees and managers are rebalancing. After a 27 per cent run-up between May 17, 2004, and March 21, 2005, they were overweight in equities and most have, or think they have, a duty to stick with standard allocations.
AdvertisementAdvertisement
The re-balancing is now almost over. With the amount of cash pouring into super funds, simply sitting on the money quickly reduces investment asset percentage weightings in favour of cash.
In addition, trustees and fund managers have been looking for excuses to dump stocks where possible. Many hapless chief executives who have provided such an excuse have been knocked over in the rush. The four big takeovers soon to be concluded and worth a total of $18 billion - WMC Resources, Southcorp, Foodland and National Foods - will complete the process.
Institutions will soon start moving back into the sharemarket and - lo! - there will be value. Brokers will exclaim that shiny nuggets absolutely litter the landscape, you just have to bend over and pick them up. Fund managers will agree because they want to lift their equity mandates, and therefore fee incomes. There might even be a buying panic.
The average dividend yield is 3.9 per cent, which grosses up to just above 5 per cent after franking credits, the same as the 10-year bond yield. Many stocks are yielding more than that.
With the 10-year bond rate at 5.1 per cent, the only reason you would pass up a 5.1 per cent effective dividend yield from a company that is reinvesting, say, 30 per cent of its profit (which means it will definitely produce at least some capital growth), is because you are scared.
Scared of what? Falling profits, rising bond yields, America?
The current run of economic data, including yesterday's retail sales, suggests that there could well be some pressure on profits this year but Eric Betts of Nomura points out that "the vast majority" of companies are likely to hold their dividends. "There could even be an upside surprise," he reckons.
And Australian stocks are being priced as much on dividend yield as earnings at the moment.
Bond yields are historically low, it's true, and the yield curve is inverted (that is, long bond yields are lower than cash rates) which is unusual. But what if the next move in cash rates is down? After yesterday's run of data a few more economists jumped on the "next rate hike is a cut" wagon. Maybe it will be.
And then there's America. Is it an accident waiting to happen?
Adrian Blundell-Wignell and Alison Tarditi at Citigroup have produced some fascinating research that compares the current position of America and China with that of the two countries during the 1960s and 70s.
Their conclusion is that the key to whether Chinese industrialisation induces a commodity "supercycle" is US productivity. That's because in order for China to keep growing at its present rate through exports, the West (that is, America) has to buy them. In order for that to happen, US real incomes need to keep rising. The key to that is productivity.
Blundell-Wignell and Tarditi show that US productivity collapsed between 1970 and 1985, which basically brought Japan's period of extraordinar

ASXIOU
16-06-2005, 12:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU

the market is just having a 'healthy' correction. It was always predicted to happen. Even during the prime of the bull run late last year many people were trying to predict 'when' this correction would happen not 'if' it would happen. It won't last forever and I'm sure in a few months we will look back at certain stocks and say 'If only I had bought it back then'. Long term fundamentals are still in tack and many stocks are now trading on very nice prospective PE and div yields.



well what a difference a month makes! Congrats to everyone who held their nerve through the recent gloom and went against the herd buying up big chunks of excellent companies at bargain prices. I'm sure you are all sitting very pretty now!! :D:D:D:D
regards

nelehdine
16-06-2005, 02:18 PM
Been a great 6 weeks, have turned around a $3k loss on my Aussie portfolio to a $16.5k profit. Bring on a really decent rally !!!

main gainers
RIN
BBG
EXL
MCW
CNP
MPR
WOW

pago
26-06-2005, 10:44 PM
hi ,as you all know,dow down 100 odd ,on both of last two days,we moving back towards a possible april 05 type correction,all eyes on the dow and usa data this week,should be interesting,cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
08-07-2005, 09:54 AM
Wonder what will happen this morning on the ASX? If it follows London, it will tumble quickly before recovering lost ground later in the day.

I suspect it may have less of an effect over here, but think that over a few months it will be much more of a factor.

With regards to the people in London affected by this, I reckon that for the ASX it will be little more than a speed-hump.

Packersoldkidney
08-07-2005, 01:14 PM
A blip, and nothing else. ASX steady.

Just looked at the title of this thread, and it's a bit unfortunate. The 'blood' doesn't refer to real blood, obviously, but to the metaphorical blood of an investor/trader in the market.

donner
08-07-2005, 01:20 PM
Its no surprise the NZer's get labelled with all the sheep shagging jokes. All one has to do is look at the behaviour of the market and you can see the people who comprise it are just following the leader. It goes down because thats what its supposed to do and when someone else goes up so will the NZX.

Hell even FLT has stayed steady.

Moonshine
05-10-2005, 03:44 PM
Not a pretty day at the office.

My entire watchlist of Blue Chips are all down today...

Some of the worse hit:

RIN -$0.90 (-5.36%)
MBL -$3.35 (-4.45%)
WPL -$1.35 (-3.82%)
..
.

This list goes on.

Although... another mini-retrace/correction could provide further emphasis to climb higher still? [:p] [8)]
Cheers,

tommy
05-10-2005, 04:40 PM
How long will this correction take? My triggers were activated for stop-loss so I ended up collecting profits for some of my holdings... all the stocks in my portfolio are red today!

kura
05-10-2005, 05:14 PM
Gee tommy, you don't seriously expect an answer do you ?

Has been so long since I've seen so much red on my watchlist, makes it look kind of attractive.

Damo79
05-10-2005, 05:32 PM
I'm glad I bought BNT the other day. The one glint of green shining through:)

ASXIOU
05-10-2005, 05:57 PM
damo have u seen BNTO today? [:p]:D
SDG also keeping me happy
as for everything else [:0][B)][:I][V]

pago
05-10-2005, 06:13 PM
hi tommy,most world indices are down.all eyes will be on the dow overnight which will/may indicate tomorrows markets.moves in the dow futures market are important.the usa reporting season starts soon.it seems the usa market does not like all the talk of another interest rate rise,but there are many factors in play.cheers pago.

Skol
05-10-2005, 06:13 PM
In amongst the carnage a pick of mine (PGL) a while back standing out. Don't know why, the rest aren't looking too flash.

pago
30-10-2005, 09:02 PM
hi ,is it over?imo not yet.october is gone but the usa problems remain,should be a good day on the oz market tomorrow,watch out for big up /down moves on the dow, over a few days,a sure indicator of instability and if so ,lookout.cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
22-01-2006, 01:17 PM
Dow Jones had its worst fall since September 2003 on Friday. 213 points or so lost in a single session....Ford is closing down 10 plants and cutting 25000 jobs Stateside...google hammered as well.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1691612,00.html

Could be an interesting day tomorrow.

Mick100
22-01-2006, 01:54 PM
Yeah, the US market participants were taken aback by an announcment by a fed governer that the interest rate hikes were to continue into the forseeable future (ie , more than one more rate increase to come)

This could add strength to the USD and make stocks less attractive in the short term
Rising oil prices are also bad for stocks other than oil related stocks

I think the PM' stocks could get sucked into the downdraft but oil stocks will continue rising. All my aussie stocks are resource companies so I'm not too concerned about a downturn in traditional stocks,
,
,

trader10
22-01-2006, 06:41 PM
DOGS OF 2005
by David Koch

- McGuigan Simeon Wines

- Flight Centre

- Multiplex

----------------------------------------------

Quite interesting article on Sun Herald - Investor section page 4

He's talking about his pick for DOGS of 2003 and they were :

2003
- Aristocrat
- AMP
- Cochlear

2004
Aristocrat in 2004 quadrupled....
AMP in 2004 rose 45%
Cochlear in 2004 rose 18%

Quite interesting article.....

T10

Packersoldkidney
22-01-2006, 08:35 PM
Dogs is based on Dogs of the Dow, which is not quite a proven science, but nevertheless has an amazing strike rate. Pick a blue chip dog from the previous year and put some money on it and see how it goes...normally it goes pretty good.

By the way, Flight Centre is one stock I would be avoiding like the plague. Of those three I think Multiplex will perform the best: a lot of its 'bad news' is built into the price already.

Skol
23-01-2006, 03:05 AM
Sounds like a few people have had their fingers burned in the Livedoor debacle. Platinum Funds.
http://stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3548242a13,00.html

Arthur
23-01-2006, 07:28 AM
Hey Skol, thats an excellent example of the crap the media feed the ignorant. Read the headline and you would think the investors had actually lost money. The journalist must be slipping though as they have actually included some facts as to the actual returns in the article. Even after the "scandal" the Japanese fund is still up over 40% for the year and has averaged over 26% pa since it began 8? years ago. The International fund had less than 1% of its portfolio in Livedoor.

Skol
23-01-2006, 07:37 AM
Arthur,
The Japan Fund will take a bigger loss, around 3% in my calculations. Last trade in Livedoor there were lots of sellers, no buyers.

Arthur
23-01-2006, 10:20 AM
Even if Platinum Japan loose all of the money invested in Livedoor the fund will still be up 30% in 6 months. If thats the sort of returns that "big losers" make so be it.

lucky
23-01-2006, 03:10 PM
My holding in Platinums Japan fund is down 1.6% thru the Livedoor scandal which is not very much measured against the total return of the fund. [8D]

Skol
23-01-2006, 03:48 PM
I have a holding in BT's Japanese Fund. No indication yet of the damage if any. Sent an email asking about their exposure to Livedoor but no reply so far.

Arthur
23-01-2006, 05:02 PM
Hi Skol
The whole Japanese market is down so BT will be affected as well. I am guessing that you will 5% off peak value as I don't think BT wear condoms (Platinum has a short on the index). Still I imagine that you have made 25 odd percent for the year so you can't complain.

tommy
23-01-2006, 05:05 PM
Wow, big correction today all my stocks but one is bleeding red! Good buying opportunity, but should I wait for another few days for better bargains? mmm

In regards to Livedoor, Horiemon is getting a good bashing because he has made a lot of enemies among strong politicians (especially Shizuka Kamei) who would love to seem him destroyed... the fact that the TSE even hinted at delisting Livedoor is outrageous while the investigation is still underway, when in fact major banks had illegally hidden trillions of yen in bad debts and got away with it.

FYI, if you want any business news updates on Livedoor and Japan economy in general, check out:

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/
http://www.asahi.com/english/
http://www.crisscross.com/jp/news/cat/3
http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=world&cat=japan
http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/business/index.html
http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/

mentat
23-01-2006, 05:12 PM
What do you guys use for trading Japan and to invest in these funds, Platinum and BT?

Lizard
23-01-2006, 05:41 PM
JFJ - Fleming Japanese, listed on the NZX has given me ave 73% at todays price - since buying May 05. Some of that was a reduction in discount to NAV (which, from memory, was close to 15% when I bought in due to underperformance over previous 3-5 years).

Skol
23-01-2006, 06:33 PM
Fund performance for BT Japanese was 27.37% for 05 calendar year. Not bad, but will be better if yen appreciates against $A.

lucky
24-01-2006, 10:13 AM
Good buying Lizard and great timming. I got a few at $6.50 later last year and might keep a watch on them while they are weak as the party in Japan is only warming up.

Skol
24-01-2006, 11:01 AM
BT tell me they have no exposure to Livedoor.
The BT Japanese fund is not hedged and been slowed up by $A appreciation against yen. Started 05 around 79 and been as high as 91.
Party only beginning all right, I'm picking yen will appreciate as capital follows interest in the market which was touted as a dog for years.

Skol
24-01-2006, 02:24 PM
More drama in Japan. CEO of Livedoor arrested, Livedoor threatened with de-listing. Lots of sell, no buy orders, no trades.

tommy
26-01-2006, 06:28 PM
Wow if Livedoor's stock plummet further, it might be worth a punt if there is a possibility of a buyout, read this boys:

http://www.crisscross.com/jp/news/362298

pago
31-01-2006, 07:30 PM
hi guys.this massive run needs a breather.have you noticed the massive increase in posts and new posters.there is an overdue correction ,most likely when the reporting season ends,choose carefully.cheers pago.

OneUp
31-01-2006, 07:41 PM
Pago, agree fully with you. I will look to exit all but my best positions end of February, aiming to get back in the game mid-late May. I imagine that the Iran issue will weigh heavily on the market from mid March through to June - with a very possible international crisis/military confrontation to send stocks tumbling - and little company specific news to arrest the decline. The cycle seems to play out every year, with just a different substitute in the market commentary: "the market tumbled today on concerns about [insert event here]".

SEC
20-03-2006, 10:13 PM
Congrats, ASX.

http://images.heritagecoin.com/images/HNAI/75/364/364007327o.jpg

The ASX is making higher highs and higher lows, always a good sign for the bulls. Now that 5000 has been cracked and the popular press gets hold of this I reckon there's a bit of steam left in the current rally. If the ASX pushes to 5100 in this rally it might be an opportune time to take a bit of money off the table for some reinvestment later.

As Peter Quinton, head of Bell Potter Research says, "Shares were still the best investment available. If you buy bonds, you are probably going to lose. Property is going nowhere. Cash is pathetic."

SEC

SEC
28-03-2006, 10:48 PM
Hit 5100 today - the market is looking rather frothy at the moment. I'm still bullish but this run can't continue at this pace and a correction is imminent. My guess is that this one will be similar to the magnitude of last April & October's corrections - 6-8% perhaps? Will Bernanke's Fed upcoming IR announcement be the catalyst?

But I won't be liquidating. Rather, recent accumulated savings and dividends mean I have plenty of cash at the ready for any over-correction. I'm also waiting for this thread to liven up again. Always a good indicator it's time to buy:D.

SEC

Packersoldkidney
28-03-2006, 10:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Hit 5100 today - the market is looking rather frothy at the moment. I'm still bullish but this run can't continue at this pace and a correction is imminent. My guess is that this one will be similar to the magnitude of last April & October's corrections - 6-8% perhaps? Will Bernanke's Fed upcoming IR announcement be the catalyst?

But I won't be liquidating. Rather, recent accumulated savings and dividends mean I have plenty of cash at the ready for any over-correction. I'm also waiting for this thread to liven up again. Always a good indicator it's time to buy:D.

SEC


You'd have to think that BHP would take fair bit of responsibility for the latest push into record territory.

SEC
28-03-2006, 11:06 PM
Yep, it doesn't get much better than this for ASX resource (and related) stocks at the moment. But the AUD has to be oversold at the moment (why it was sold off with the NZD I'll never know - has to be those geography-ignorant American hedge fund managers).

Packersoldkidney
28-03-2006, 11:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Yep, it doesn't get much better than this for ASX resource (and related) stocks at the moment. But the AUD has to be oversold at the moment (why it was sold off with the NZD I'll never know - has to be those geography-ignorant American hedge fund managers).


Yeah, the Aussie dollar's current state will attract money from overseas into the ASX....and that is another reason why the push north of 5000.

soulman
29-03-2006, 03:32 PM
The only thing I see that is similar to the 2000 dotcom collapsed is the Yellow Cake fever we have experience here.

Last year correction comes at the beginning of APR 05. I see correction for this year occurring about May. I think a correction can only occur when the base metal prices declined from the current high.

Packersoldkidney
04-05-2006, 02:44 PM
Cyclical profit taking today....could be a lot of red for several weeks at least.

Interest rate rises haven't helped.

The market has been in stunning form since 2003, so profit taking is expected at certain stages in a bull run.

There will be a lot of gloom and doom about the place for a while, so its a good time to go shopping.

ASXIOU
15-05-2006, 08:14 PM
Looks like it's that time again [B)]. Could get quite ugly over next couple of weeks/months. Feeling confident my holdings are fundamentally sound so will just wait for it to blow over. The market WILL pick up again. It's only a matter of time. We have all seen this before and in hindsight is nothing but a good buying opportunity for quality stocks.

Packersoldkidney
15-05-2006, 08:41 PM
Yes, great opportunities to buy in coming weeks. Big losses expected tomorrow after the carnage tonight on metals markets.

Many stocks will be thumped, gazumped and trumped. Those who bought in last week will be humped; the bulls will be stumped, and the bears pumped.

Looking forward to it.

pago
15-05-2006, 11:30 PM
hi pok, looks like dow will be down but the futures cant seem to make up their mind. given the global indices are all down,and some metals,zinc ,copper in london,seems the oz market will be red again on tuesday.think its a healthly correction,rebalancing,not a crash,but it may get rough if everyone runs for the door.all eyes on the dow this week,cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
15-05-2006, 11:45 PM
Good luck Pago....interesting few weeks coming up for AEX: hope it comes through for you.

yogi-in-oz
16-05-2006, 12:23 AM
:)

Hi folks,

... even though Wednesday may be negative
for the DOW this week, be alert for XJO
to be positive on Thursday, 18052006 ..... :)

happy days

yogi

:)

pago
16-05-2006, 07:24 AM
dow made a late recovery,up 47 to 11428,if metals hold ground,doesnt look to bad today but more to come,cheers pago.

Sunshine007
16-05-2006, 08:43 AM
Well done soulman, right on with your prediction of correction in May.

k1w1
16-05-2006, 06:53 PM
Well I took an absolute kicking today and yesterday on my Kagara Zinc and Hardman Oil Shares. Same on Lihir Gold which I have been following .

ruethewhirl
16-05-2006, 06:58 PM
Yeah k1w1 - what to do? I still hold ZFX, and am up 25% at this point (was up 40% two days ago). Can we expect a bounce?!?!?

ASXIOU
16-05-2006, 07:05 PM
Yeah im trying to stay positive and focus on the long term but it's hurting me [B)][:0] Especially when I think that only yesterday afternoon I could have sold all my shares, taken the cash, bought a new car today, then bought all my same shares back this arvo and still had enough change for rego and insurance... On the positive side picked up some more IGR at what I think is quite cheap price. :)

Heavy Metal
16-05-2006, 07:23 PM
This thread is starting to liven up again. Must be time to buy.

Gofish.
16-05-2006, 09:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Well I took an absolute kicking today

Ditto on Hardman, also on OXR and several others.
Not worth thinking about the difference - wouldn't have sold out completely and am still well up for the year.
Have put in a couple of lowball bids and will see where they go. (on HDR & GDR)

pago
17-05-2006, 06:16 PM
hi ,i suspect more turmoil coming up,the irony is if oil,gold,metals didnt rise but just take a breather then the inflationory impact is less and the fed wouldnt need to raise usa interest rates,as it looks fed will raise interest rates,dow drops and globally including oz market we see a drop.imo ,best mid term if resources range traded.this is my kiss analysis,obviously there are many other factors in play,usa debt,hedge funds,resource spike,currency moves,etc.imho its not good news that oil ,gold,etc have bounced so soon,short term gain for mid term turmoil,the trend for resouces upwards remains in place but.cheers pago.

pago
18-05-2006, 07:35 AM
sheet,dow down 214 to 11205,dropped 1.9%,lookout below,cheers pago.

ananda77
18-05-2006, 08:24 AM
...11100 >>> 11050 >>> ???10600???

...stock selection in place now...ready to go long :):)

Kind Regards

Heavy Metal
18-05-2006, 08:56 AM
US Inflation rates are only 0.1% higher than economists' predictions and the DOW plumments by 1.9%. Go figure. I smell overreaction.

ananda77
18-05-2006, 09:17 AM
...when trading the DOW, do not make the mistake to dwell in concepts like 'overreaction'...

...trading to the recent HIGH of 11667, the DOW fell 'ONLY' 83 points short of the All-Time-High of 11750 back in 2000...

...now this is not representing the 'Great American Spirit' (greed) and likewise:

...turning 'UP' before the 'LOW-LOW' (possibly -11050- because 10600 might spin the index out of control to the downward side) does not make 'DOW-SENSE'...

...[my} point of view (strategy): -long- at 11050 to a new HIGH > 11750... (then recession may take it's course)

Kind Regards

GB
18-05-2006, 01:35 PM
Heavy - do you believe that ?- you have got to be kidding dude - the coffee is waiting to be smelled - if you follow "the news" you will be way behind dude - any way all the best

Heavy Metal
18-05-2006, 02:15 PM
At least I can smell the coffee GB, unlike your good self with your nose blocked with all that gold dust you inhale:D

A 214 point drop is still an overreaction since the market was already pricing in a hefty CPI increase.

tommy
18-05-2006, 03:04 PM
Oh dear, all my holdings are getting smashed today:( How long is this "correction" going to last, another few days or weeks? Hope it's not the beginning of a major "crash"... hope the US markets stop sneezing because OZ markets are gonna catch a cold[xx(]

kura
18-05-2006, 03:32 PM
The thought of a prolonged downturn makes me nervous (currently 90% cash)

Put in a buy order for some OXR @3.30 last night, but then pulled it when I saw what US markets did this morning, for me it was a lucky escape, and don't intend to buy untill I know that correction is over. (OXR now 3.00 )

tommy
18-05-2006, 05:33 PM
Anything could happen but keep an eye on this, DOW might have a dead-cat bounce:

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

Hope there is some positivity on ASX tomorrow...

Bel
18-05-2006, 06:21 PM
Oh dear, all my holdings are getting smashed today How long is this "correction" going to last, another few days or weeks? Hope it's not the beginning of a major "crash"... hope the US markets stop sneezing because OZ markets are gonna catch a cold .

Is there anything healthy in the US economy in comparison to a few short months ago?

pago
18-05-2006, 07:10 PM
hi bel,obviously you have an axe to grind re the usa but thats no reason to disparage tommy who has been a good reseacher on telcos/tech on this forum.back to the debate,we all know the usa economy is debt ridden,the usa dollar is under threat and moves are underway by some countries to trade in different currencies,gold being universal.this situation has been evident for some time.a question for you,on what reasons should this all unwind in may 06,i agree there will/may be a day of reconciliation,cheers pago.

ananda77
19-05-2006, 08:44 AM
...dow traded as low as 11106 with 'NO' apparent motivation to go higher
in a hurry...

...BIG TEST of PRIMARY SUPPORT (11050) coming up...

...a close below 11050...and things will become seriously serious...

Kind Regards

...because I have not been worried when the US-debt was mounting to 5 trillion, I can see absolutely no reason to be worried at 8 trillion...

Bel
19-05-2006, 09:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by pago

hi bel,obviously you have an axe to grind re the usa but thats no reason to disparage tommy who has been a good reseacher on telcos/tech on this forum.back to the debate,we all know the usa economy is debt ridden,the usa dollar is under threat and moves are underway by some countries to trade in different currencies,gold being universal.this situation has been evident for some time.a question for you,on what reasons should this all unwind in may 06,i agree there will/may be a day of reconciliation,cheers pago.


No no, you get me all wrong. I have issues with GWB but none at all with the US as a whole. I certainly don't carry a crystal ball, my guess is as good as any others as far as i'm concerned. But when i see a car heading towards a precipice, i'm more concerned for the fact it's heading towards the edge rather than when it will reach the edge.

Bel
19-05-2006, 09:19 AM
Forgot to mention. THe great decider on which way the American economy will go has to be war with Iran.

If it does occur watch out for runaway inflation, rise in interest rates, realestate will burst and boy will the price of gold and silver et al explode or what!

spock
19-05-2006, 11:43 AM
why was the all ords up after the dow continued to drop?
bhp opened at 28.61, dropped 1 point, and is now at 29.00

my suggestion is, that us money is creeping into au stocks.
any better ideas?

tricha
19-05-2006, 06:05 PM
It's all a load of bull brought on by doomsters [xx(][xx(] and maybe a few manipulators.[}:)][}:)]

The fundamentals have not changed on the OZ market, only got better, iron ore up 20%, nickel gold, copper, zinc still way up there.

There are going to be some huge results in this last quarter for mining companies I think.[:p][:p]

Lets face it the US market went up 500 points recently, only gone back to where it belongs.

Have a great weekend, off to watch the Hurricanes blow the Warratahs![8]

Packersoldkidney
20-05-2006, 01:56 AM
Market in for more bloodletting on Monday judging by the metals rout tonight.

Actually think there will be an early sell of Monday and a recovery at some stage later in the day.....the DOW will in all likelihood finish positive.

Who's gonna have their bargain bag out on Monday?!!

Heavy Metal
20-05-2006, 01:04 PM
SPI futures only down 1 point doesn't suggest a bloodletting on Monday. Perhaps more falls in pure commodities and gold stocks but not the general market.

I suspect no bargains await on Monday. Better stock clearance sales may well occur within a few weeks.

tommy
22-05-2006, 04:41 PM
What a shocker of a day... All Ordinaries now at 4988.4[xx(] Wonder how long the bleeding is gonna last, this is painful[B)]

ASXIOU
22-05-2006, 05:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by tommy

What a shocker of a day... All Ordinaries now at 4988.4[xx(] Wonder how long the bleeding is gonna last, this is painful[B)]


Very ugly day. Took an absolute caning. Trying to relax [:0][B)]

tommy
22-05-2006, 05:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU


quote:Originally posted by tommy

What a shocker of a day... All Ordinaries now at 4988.4[xx(] Wonder how long the bleeding is gonna last, this is painful[B)]


Very ugly day. Took an absolute caning. Trying to relax [:0][B)]



Join the club... got kicked out of all but two stocks through stop-loss, lost a lot a paper-profits accumulated over the past few months[xx(] I assume many were forced to sell off today due to stop-loss triggers and margin calls, glad I wasn't borrowing any money to invest.

There seems to be a lot of cheapo stocks around but I haven't got the guts to re-enter the market for a while, have to wait until the general market sentiment turns around. Is everyone else alive? This forum has been relatively quiet today!

pago
22-05-2006, 06:54 PM
hi,panic set in today and stoplosses/margin calls.the asx looking far more real after the drop which had to happen.a major change in confidence has occurred,for now.whats next?,obviously more volatility,all eyes on the dow and metal/commodity prices,the latter ironically would serve us best if they dropped a little for now.there is no doubt that hedge/investment funds involvment in metals positions needs unwinding.if you believe the usa is about to go into recession,sell up.its clear that bernie like greenspan as a new fed governor is being tested.question,has the asx hit its low and about to recover?imo more volatility to come,

nelehdine
22-05-2006, 06:58 PM
I have about 35% of my portfolio in utility and property stocks, most of which went up today, other 65% in metals and oils ... temptation to go to 100% if markets fall any further. VERY ugly day today , imagine it finished quite a few people trading on margin off.

OneUp
22-05-2006, 07:27 PM
Tommy, been a hard week or so mate. Can I take a guess that the two stocks you're still in are GBT and TRS? TRS shows its quality - rising on a bloodbath, only a shade off its all time high. Might consider selling some TRS to fund some bargain buys, but it's hard to part company with such a trusty performer.

As for your question on the GBT thread why no one else bought, yeah I thought it would do very well too but made the mistake of trying to "time" my entry - using the money earmarked for GBT elsewhere for a few months (in the hope of making a big quick profit which would allow me to buy even more GBT) - but it took off of course leaving me in the dust. Well done on that one.

Any punters see some particular bargains out there?

Mining specs slaughtered. AGS looking good value at current prices.

tommy
22-05-2006, 07:58 PM
Good evening Oneup!

Yes, you are spot on mate... I'm glad I have been building up my exposure to GBT and TRS, both of them have been rock solid despite the market massacre (GBT & TRS consisted of 50% of my portfolio previously... now 100% of my portfolio, the rest is all cash!)

I cannot think of selling TRS (I would be happy to buy more though!) because this is an absolute gem of a stock that can continue to grow even in a recession.
GBT is unaffected simply because it is so tightly held, no one wants to sell it (including myself). Still cheap at the current level if you ask me, PE ratio of 18 is too low.

Now, back to the original subject:

I think until the market sentiment changes, companies that are still cash-flow negative are going to be more volatile than ever, and obviously stocks that have run the hardest over the past few months are the most affected.

I think I need a few beers to regain my sanity after such a Bloody Monday, in the meantime I hope the DOW doesn't tank again tonight...

OneUp
22-05-2006, 08:12 PM
Hi Tommy,
I think there's a lot of tax loss selling going on. Tax year end of June, so market should turn by July at the latest. Generally mid-late May is actually the very worst of it, so I'm considering buying in to a few quality companies in the next couple of weeks.

Yeah, I think I'll have to have a beer or two too!

SEC
22-05-2006, 10:23 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

But I won't be liquidating. Rather, recent accumulated savings and dividends mean I have plenty of cash at the ready for any over-correction. I'm also waiting for this thread to liven up again. Always a good indicator it's time to buy:D.

SEC


After being wired shut for months, the SEC wallet is now OPEN! Virtually no comments on this thread for months, then over 40 posts in a week. Always a good sign. The recent plunge in resources has made the 9/11 turmoil look like a cakewalk. And for what - inflation was 0.1% over expectations???? Oh please...

The relationship between base metal stock prices and the underlying commodity price has temporarily broken down as the latecomers rush for the exits. For example KZL/ZFX now at prices when zinc was $2500/tonne (currently $3200/tonne). IGO down 30% during when nickel prices have hardly moved. And coalies have got smashed when the spot price has remained constant!!!!

I bought more zinc this afternoon and several other resource stocks are within 5 - 10% of my bargain basement target buy price.

Cheers

SEC

Packersoldkidney
22-05-2006, 10:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC


quote:Originally posted by SEC

But I won't be liquidating. Rather, recent accumulated savings and dividends mean I have plenty of cash at the ready for any over-correction. I'm also waiting for this thread to liven up again. Always a good indicator it's time to buy:D.

SEC


After being wired shut for months, the SEC wallet is now OPEN! Virtually no comments on this thread for months, then over 40 posts in a week. Always a good sign. The recent plunge in resources has made the 9/11 turmoil look like a cakewalk. And for what - inflation was 0.1% over expectations???? Oh please...

The relationship between base metal stock prices and the underlying commodity price has temporarily broken down as the latecomers rush for the exits. For example KZL/ZFX now at prices when zinc was $2500/tonne (currently $3200/tonne). IGO down 30% during when nickel prices have hardly moved. And coalies have got smashed when the spot price has remained constant!!!!

I bought more zinc this afternoon and several other resource stocks are within 5 - 10% of my bargain basement target buy price.

Cheers

SEC


I agree, this thread, which I may add I started, is as good a contrarian indicator as any: I am as bearish as can be on the US stock markets, but on the Aussie one there is defo upside in it; we are still firmly in a bull market on the ASX. For me the question is.....when will the bull run resume?

I am going to wait until things settle before I 'open the wallet': this correction has been long overdue and may have a ways to go before things look up again, dead cat bounces aside.

cdchi1
22-05-2006, 11:13 PM
June matchup to rival mundine vs Green

In the blue corner we have the bargain hunters

In the red corner we have tax loss sellers

Im in the blue corner...and was today actually...went on a shopping spree on a couple of my stocks.

Cdchi1

SEC
22-05-2006, 11:16 PM
Mr Kidney the problem with 'waiting until things settle' is that there is every chance it'll spring upward again before you know it and you curse that you've missed the juiciest buy opportunities for several months.

The underlying factors behind this ASX 'correction' don't look much different from those of April and October 05, and as such I reckon we'll see another similar size correction. We're down 6.3% already and the previous two corrections took 7 - 8% off the index. So not far to go now I reckon, 5000 will be sorely tested. If so, a fall near 4900 might be on the cards but it won't stay below 5000 for long.

SEC

Halebop
22-05-2006, 11:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

...but on the Aussie one there is defo upside in it; we are still firmly in a bull market on the ASX. For me the question is.....when will the bull run resume?

The 7 month old secondary uptrend broke on Friday.

We could see the market fall 10% and still enjoy the fruits of the primary uptrend. I'm not sure we'll see the primary uptrend broken but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tested.

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/7490/xaoax20may05to23may066sp.png

Even if the primary uptrend has accelerated we could see a fall to about 4,800. The current "correction" is as yet barely a blip no matter what your opinion on bull or bear. I have no great conviction but I'm happy to be in cash right now and happier to jump on a new secondary uptrend when and if it happens than make a call on continued bull runs. There is still froth priced into a market showing signs of a lot of fatigue.

SEC
22-05-2006, 11:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

[quote]

Even if the primary uptrend has accelerated we could see a fall to about 4,800.


Your estimate of XAO=4800 (~AXJO=4850) is only 50 off my estimate so we're in the same ballpark. My wallet is still open as some sectors like commodities have fallen hard first, the rest of the market may follow providing good opportunities elsewhere.

Bel
23-05-2006, 07:40 AM
My .02 cents.
I think you guys are dreaming if you think this is only a 'correction'. Weve had our dream run in stocks, time past to have moved on to greener pastures.

ananda77
23-05-2006, 09:02 AM
Bel:

...there are dream-runs up and

...dream-runs down

...that's life for a trader...

Kind Regards

Packersoldkidney
23-05-2006, 11:04 AM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Mr Kidney the problem with 'waiting until things settle' is that there is every chance it'll spring upward again before you know it and you curse that you've missed the juiciest buy opportunities for several months.

The underlying factors behind this ASX 'correction' don't look much different from those of April and October 05, and as such I reckon we'll see another similar size correction. We're down 6.3% already and the previous two corrections took 7 - 8% off the index. So not far to go now I reckon, 5000 will be sorely tested. If so, a fall near 4900 might be on the cards but it won't stay below 5000 for long.

SEC


I am in the same boat as you....having looked at market open and what happened overseas last night I am buying this morning.

kura
23-05-2006, 03:45 PM
I don't usually day trade, but I've turned over all my spare cash today, (cash being 80% of my portfolio) in first thing, and just out of the last one now (with a few extra dollars) not many days are this much fun.

pago
23-05-2006, 09:23 PM
hi the bleeding dow,obviously its a global market downturn,wait,german dax and ftse are up.absolutely amazing that the usa economy can dominate the globe to this degree,any doubters as to usa military/economic power,think again.all eyes on the dow again tonight,cheers pago.

nelehdine
23-05-2006, 09:43 PM
I hold IGO and like SEC can see no justification for the sell-off, Nickel has hardly dropped at all. When the market is in the mood to throw out the baby with the bathwater then there are usually plenty of bargains around for the patient.

Disc: Doubled IGO holding today at $2.52 ... cheap price for a quality company.

Seti
24-05-2006, 07:07 AM
I would certainly class the recent sell-off as the long awaited correction and possibly an over-correction. Bellweather BHP down 14% in 2 weeks including another 40c yesterday despite a rally in metals.

27b wiped off BHP cap (http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bhp-boss-unmoved-by-movement-in-share-price/2006/05/23/1148150256515.html)

ananda77
24-05-2006, 10:10 AM
....last night, Dow attempted to gain foothold above the 150MA, but -retreated...

... Now, Dow started to test 11000, which initially could get us down into the high 10800's, but as long as the CLOSE stays above/at 11000 -No Worries-...although...

...going 'long' in the afternoon like yesterday...better leave that for another day just now...

...(this fierce fighting for control usually goes on for weeks)...

Kind Regards

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/DJIAA.gif</center>

cloggs
24-05-2006, 12:28 PM
Originally by Nehledine "Doubled IGO holding today at $2.52 ... cheap price for a quality company."

Started looking into this one, by the time I had, it had gone from 252 to 289. Bought at 289, by the time it turned up on my portfolio in diretbroking it had gone to 291, which always looks nicer, (you get a little blue arrow next to it). You obviously made a good buy at 252 yesterday.

stevieb
24-05-2006, 12:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney

Cyclical profit taking today....could be a lot of red for several weeks at least.

Interest rate rises haven't helped.

The market has been in stunning form since 2003, so profit taking is expected at certain stages in a bull run.

There will be a lot of gloom and doom about the place for a while, so its a good time to go shopping.


Interesting to read back through this thread and if this was a competion would have to say "pay that man the money".

I absolutely agree with those who say this has only been a correction, I for one have been waiting wondering when it would happen and now it has. Some stocks had clearly run ahead of themselves but the fundamentals of the Australian market are still there. Aside from resources OZ was never overvalued, some resource stocks had clearly run ahead of fair value but I think this ignores the fact that the general outlook for resources remains extremely strong.

The fact that the American market is getting hammered is a concern but not unexpected, frankly if I were to make an economic prediction it would be that the American economy is broken and over the next ten-twenty years we will see a move from America being the Worlds economic powerhorse to Asia (specifically China/India but I also see Japan/Korea in there). What I think when I see the dow going down is maybe this is happening sooner than I expected, and as long as Asian economies continue to run strongly Australia will do well. Clearly not withour risk but on balance in my mind a good outlook.

Would be interested to see some predictions on when it will turn around, I'm prepared to stick my neck out and predict July, July has always seemed to be a good month for ASX. Basically tax selling is over and market returns to normal as far as I can tell.

tommy
24-05-2006, 02:50 PM
mmm, lots of green today... is this the end of the correction?

pago
24-05-2006, 06:31 PM
hi tommy,more volatility expected,cheers pago.

ananda77
25-05-2006, 08:20 AM
quote:Originally posted by pago

hi tommy,more volatility expected,cheers pago.


...rather than wearing party boots...it's more appropriate to prepare for the Deep Blue Sea...

...those indices are hardly a show of strength...

...yesterday: shorted the Aussie all the way up and was rewarded by the end of the day...

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/US30AUSXJO.gif</center>

Packersoldkidney
25-05-2006, 01:33 PM
Buying again today....US indicies look stronger to me than they have done for a few weeks.

GB
25-05-2006, 02:17 PM
Agreed - golds look like a little jump could be in order even if the fizz jumps around- not much volume to the downside on these goldies-seem to be forming a nice base here

pago
25-05-2006, 06:53 PM
hi pok,not much confidence out there,oz all ords down 1.1% to 4939 odd, but not on big volume for a lot of shares,no panic but no buyer confidence.mostly everyone is playing wait and see.back to the dow and overseas markets tonight.amusing the reports i read of the continuing fall in metals prices,the truth is most metals are holding around their highs,look out if they do a 30% drop.just maybe we may see some stability on the dow,ftse,dax,etc tonight,cheers pago.

Packersoldkidney
25-05-2006, 07:05 PM
Hey, Pago.

Yes, its true metals prices are much higher than what they were only a few months or so ago, and what is happening now is the speculative hedge money coming out of these commodities. There is no real need to panic right now if you hold commodity stocks in other words, and there are now opportunities being presented to top up in your favourite stocks.

Europe has started well today, albeit on lower volume in some bourses because of a public holiday in places like Germany tomorrow. The US finished really well last night, and that normally means a good start at least tonight on the DOW: some key pieces of data to come through tonight will influence matters though.

I do think there is some downward moveement left in the ASX before things stabilise; meanwhile I love a volatile market for trading in, and that's exactly what we have at the moment.

By the way, in the past sometimes something out of left field has been responsible for setting off the trigger for a bear market. Markets can't be broken down into solely fundamental and technical characteristics, and if such a trigger comes along we should be quick to recognise it and adjust our positions as such.

pago
25-05-2006, 07:56 PM
hi pok.im not inspired by the moves on the dow last night,up down up,a real battle.imo a lot of investors have been surprised by the sharpness of this correction even though we all knew a correction was overdue.the feeling now is we had the correction,whats wrong/next.hence the wait and see.imo metals prices will fall,which isnt bad,just noticed yamaha has hedged copper at $2.75,now$3.60,see what happens tonight,cheers pago,

SEC
25-05-2006, 09:14 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

My wallet is still open as some sectors like commodities have fallen hard first, the rest of the market may follow providing good opportunities elsewhere.


Looks like Phase 2 of the correction is now occurring, the whole market now going down as one. Throwing out the baby with the bathwater, as Nelehdine says. Some outstanding buys are starting to emerge across the board.