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Westie
10-04-2005, 10:44 PM
Been reading through the posts in this topic & i'm beginning to wonder which posters in this forum actually own investment properties themselves. Anyone willing to reveal?

I'll kick it off for the sake of reciprocation. I own five & manage another ten for my family. All residential, all in Auckland. All up, about 10 years experience.

11-04-2005, 07:54 AM
Have done but cannot stand the hassles 10 years since I have held any. Far better returns from shares with practically no hassles.

cdt18
11-04-2005, 08:21 AM
I owned five houses up until last year when I worked out it would be smarter to invest the funds elsewhere. My properties sold for yields of about 6% and the new owners are all losing money in the beginning by about 3% of the value of the house which to me is simply bizare.

clips
11-04-2005, 09:47 AM
own 3 houses, since 91,95 & 02, yeilding 8.8% on cost price, 4.6% on value. It's all self funding and pretty much self sufficient, just ticks along year after year, now produces a surplus. Probably stick with it for a few more years, it's the first serious investment i made and much as some poke the borax at property investment it's sure better than doing nothing.... - now fiddling about with shares but not on borrowed money.

dinosaur
11-04-2005, 03:40 PM
Now own 4 investment properties in Aust plus own home in NZ. Tried the NZ market nearly 20 years ago when interest rates were 24%, but got out after 1 year because the tenants didn't value our property, even though it was fully redecorated when they when in.

Aust investment properties were worth A$990K when we purchased them new 6-7 years ago and before GST. Now worth around A$2mil conservatively.
All for an outlay of A$70K and using NZ equity. That's better than I could ever have done with shares, although I do believe we were lucky to catch the correction in prices in Australia.

Very good protection and Insurance for landlords in Aus. Rents are still going up (about $10 every 6 months) but have not kept pace with the increase in property values. Have considered buying more but the prices are too dear now, compared with rents.

Watching 'Renters' on TV I can't believe what rental managers in NZ let tenants get away with. Our tenants get pulled up if the 'edges' have not been done. No hassles at all.

11-04-2005, 06:35 PM
I've two at the low-average end of the mkt and will get more of the same at the right price. Just waiting for those investors on 2-year fixed, with little cash flow, getting scared of 9+% and bailing out.
Still a few opportunities available in ChCh but you have to be in the know or damned quick.

Bling_Bling
12-04-2005, 12:20 PM
Had a few properties, but have sold down and cashed up 50% of the portofolio. One must not be greedy. :)

nelehdine
12-04-2005, 04:31 PM
Own 2 commercial properties , yields on purchase price of 9.48% and 9.65% respectively, both in Auckland CBD. Rent reviews linked to CPI and good long leases, capital gain not that flash but ROE since purchase averaging about 13.5%. Locked in at 7.20% a year ago with another 24mths covered ... hopefully rates will have fallen by early 2007. Absolutely hassle free investments. Mortgages will be paid off by 2013 when the rents will probably be around $75k combined. Currently throwing off arond $1500/mth positive cashflow.

Also own approx $120k in Aussie and Kiwi listed property trusts.

SEC
12-04-2005, 07:45 PM
Have disposed of my rental properties over the past four months and dripfed the equity into ASX stocks at appropriate times.

I'll be back into property but not at the moment. Timing the market is far more profitable than time in the market. And with residential property, the only time you make money is when you sell (less 5% fùcking transaction fees).

SEC

JBmurc
12-04-2005, 08:14 PM
[quote]Originally posted by SEC

Have disposed of my rental properties over the past four months and dripfed the equity into ASX stocks at appropriate times.

I'll be back into property but not at the moment. Timing the market is far more profitable than time in the market. And with residential property, the only time you make money is when you sell (less 5% fùcking transaction fees).

;)yeah bloody agents[}:)] have made 50,000 out of me this last year sold down 4 of property investments(spec&rentals) now only one property spec, starting next week.
will be investing spare funds into ASX over the next couple months
started with 80,000 AGM shares today ,great med-long term buy;)

SEC
12-04-2005, 08:35 PM
JBMurc, I prefer MCR;) - makes money, pays dividends and Comsec margin lends against it.

I note everyone responding to Westie's question has either sold down/out or held their investment properties. Certainly no-one is buying residential property.

SEC

cdt18
12-04-2005, 08:45 PM
The people buying property in the last 6 months are the suckers who are gonna take the fall. They're the poor morons who have waited & waited for the "right" time, when they think there is no risk in buying res property as everyone is making money on it so it must be a sure thing !

I was talking to an agent about the market in my city and he says all the locals have stopped buying as they think the prices are
b u ll s h it.

12-04-2005, 08:50 PM
CDT18 which city please

JBmurc
12-04-2005, 09:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

CDT18 which city please

Queenstown's market is certainly overvalued by at least 20% [:0]
5 odd years of 20% growth per year is coming to a end ;)
as will some of the highly geared development companies[B)]

Westie
13-04-2005, 06:30 AM
quote:everyone responding to Westie's question has either sold down/out or held their investment properties. Certainly no-one is buying residential property.


Actually, I bought in Jan & Feb. The Jan purchase was for myself, my first home. It was a deceased estate so I got a standalone 2 bdrm house 400sqm about 100m from water for $210k. 2 bdrm units in the area are going for more.

Also bought a 1 bdrm unit yielding 9%, for about 8% less than CV. Owner was overseas so keen to sell. Never owned a 1 bdrm unit before, suprised by the high demand but it does make sense in this climate.

Although I understand the concerns of the others on the forum about the likely hard times ahead, I've owned through 1 cycle & I'm not yet 30 so buy & hold is fine for my time horizon. I have become a lot more picky about what i'm buying now though, the situation/odds really needs to strongly favor me as the buyer.

Love to hear if anyone knows of reliable ways to ferret out deceased estates. They are great buying if you can find them, can buy with cash, & offer fast settlement.

cdt18
13-04-2005, 06:47 AM
Dunedin

wns
14-04-2005, 02:50 PM
Our own home + two rental properties + still got two wraps going.
All in Queensland.

Sideshow Bob
14-04-2005, 04:40 PM
I don't own an investment property, rather on the other end - a tenant. Got back from the overseas in the middle of the boom, and decided to sit out, rather than add to the hype. Plus also such a hard place to find a decent house.

Worked out where I am sitting with rates, insurance, maintenence and mortgage, plus money under investment, prices would have to increase by 5% in the coming year to be on the winning side - not likely.

My dislike of real estate agents is heightened by the fact our place underlet, good for us, but absentee landlord for whom an estate agent manages. They under-let it, as the agents want to buy it!

Think alot of people will start to hurt on their rentals, once they come off fixed and rents don't meet the mortgage!

SSB

rmbbrave
27-04-2005, 08:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob



My dislike of real estate agents is heightened by the fact our place underlet, good for us, but absentee landlord for whom an estate agent manages. They under-let it, as the agents want to buy it!

SSB


I don't understand what you mean by underlet.

Do you mean the agent has beeen given the power to decide the amount of rent by the landlord and has taken advantage of the landlord by setting it lower than the market rate and is at the same time offering to buy the property at a-below-market-price?

Sideshow Bob
27-04-2005, 08:17 PM
quote: Originally posted by rmbbrave:

I don't understand what you mean by underlet.

Do you mean the agent has beeen given the power to decide the amount of rent by the landlord and has taken advantage of the landlord by setting it lower than the market rate and is at the same time offering to buy the property at a-below-market-price?

The agent, who looks after our property (note agent, not agency) sets the rent, given their knowledge of market conditions etc etc. Owner lives out of town.

They have taken advantage, in letting at a price slightly under market rates, not that I am complaining at all. Given what else is around and what another agent has told me, about 10% below.

The agent is not trying to buy the property at present, but the agent has tried to buy the property off the landlord in the past, and has said to me that they are still very keen.

SSB

Longtack
28-04-2005, 08:30 PM
I've recently completely refurbished a modest 3bdrm house in Linwood for another landlord. He paid $200k for it plus another $15k repairs etc. For me the numbers just don't stack up.. Ten weeks now and not tenanted. He'll be hurting and he won't drop the $290 asking rent.
Negative cash flow - ugh $45/week. [xx(]

Xerof
28-04-2005, 08:52 PM
I've got forestry on land about 10 km inland. My long term plan is to harvest the trees in 25 years time, but not replant. By then, what with global warming raising the sealevel, the waves will be lapping onto the front of the property, and I'll be able to hawk the land off as coastal sections for an absolute mint.

Anyone want a share of this - its a dead cert.....

Xerof

SEC
28-04-2005, 09:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof

I've got forestry on land about 10 km inland. My long term plan is to harvest the trees in 25 years time, but not replant. By then, what with global warming raising the sealevel, the waves will be lapping onto the front of the property, and I'll be able to hawk the land off as coastal sections for an absolute mint.

Anyone want a share of this - its a dead cert.....

Xerof


If that's your plot of pine trees up on the Port Hills I think you're being a bit optimistic.

Longtack
29-04-2005, 05:21 PM
Banks' Peninsula will subside and drown Xerof's pinus - wrongly assuming that these trees are on the Port Hills. E's from Havelock Nth eh?

Xerof
29-04-2005, 05:38 PM
Nothing wrong with a damp pinus Longtack:D:D

Spend a bit of time in the bush but the pinus is dry most of the time[^][^];);)

regards

Xerof

Longtack
30-04-2005, 11:32 AM
Soak in H5 treatment thricely to prevent stump-rot Xerof - just to be sure, to be sure, to be sure. [:I]Tax return is very dull.:(

Xerof
02-05-2005, 03:40 PM
Thanks Longtack - tried that and its definitely increased the radiata[^][^]

Xerof

Longtack
02-05-2005, 07:32 PM
;)

Dough Boy
10-05-2005, 01:57 AM
As for my real estate have 3 properties with 4 houses with 5 tenancies in the Henderson / Massey. Brought in West Auckland up to 7 years ago as area showed very good rental yields and was valued lowly compared to adjacent suburbs. Have bought double sections or double tenancy properties to maximise return. Recent purchase (1 year ago) in Henderson will yield 100K capital gain when subdivided and built on and the property market does not even need to rise for this to happen!

At this point in time would only buy if there is a sizable and instant capital gain to be made (subdivision) but otherwise will not be buying with the current yields being offered.

Rather currently concentrating on buying shares at discount at the annual clearnace sales of the ASX and NZX.

duncan macgregor
10-05-2005, 01:06 PM
DOUGH boy, To get the maximum return on what you are doing you can get a 2brm granny flat, max size 65 sq metres on the property, without subdividing. The advantage being no subdivision costs, cheap rates for the increased return. If you are buying a property with this in mind, a corner site is best with the grannyflat site higher than the house site. The corner site is great if you can come in from another street making the granny flat look like a seperate house next door. Remember the 65 sq meters in your area is living area, so build the laundry in the garage. All drains and services hooked up to the origonal house, that is why ground level is important. macdunk

10-05-2005, 02:24 PM
Duncan If the buyer is Savvy you would never sell the property afterwards. Check the legalities. I have caught many real estate agents on this one.

duncan macgregor
10-05-2005, 02:50 PM
ENIGMA, The legalities are in the area mentioned are, one title, 65 sq metre max size minor dwelling to be built within a certain distance from the main dwelling. In some areas a water tank to take flood water, and discharge it at a reduced rate to not overload the system. You can have a sep footpath crossing and hook into the power from the origonal house. Most people dont do this, as sometimes the line is not up to it. In other areas of auckland the max size is greater than 65 sq mtres. I built about 30 of these mainly in east auckland, with no problems before or after. One title means you cant sell one without the other, but it is a good way to maximise your return on a rental property large enough to accomodate this. The 65sq metres is living area only as i said stick the laundry in the garage. macdunk

10-05-2005, 04:07 PM
Legally it has to be a familly member resident in most cases. I have been to the councils on several of them and this is the answer I get. So possibly a familly member of the tenant if rented out. Or a familly member of the owner if owner occupied. I have looked at several and have good lawyers the say do not touch with barge pole. Please get your own independant legal advice.

duncan macgregor
10-05-2005, 04:36 PM
Probabely where you come from but not here. You build it and rent it out to anyone. All the ones i built thats what happened with quite a few being onsold, and a few subdivided later. I suppose it depends on your council, and where you are, even in Auckland the rules change from one area to the next. macdunk

10-05-2005, 05:10 PM
Duncan I am talking about New Zealand Auckland My lawyers Are very good You get a permit for a granny flat and rent it out to others you may find you have big liablities Even the Fire regulations are different in some cases. Yes you can do it until somebody wakes up. Subdivision later is probally the best way of legallizing the cituation if possible.

Farouk
11-05-2005, 03:46 PM
I have invested $150 grand in a property syndicate that owns a commercial prop (is a Cinema Complex with 4 movie theatres). The building is valued at 2 million, the rent we get is 200K a year, because we own 50%, the other 50% is borrowed & the interest on that million is 7% I think, --the impact of this is that myself & the other investors get about 11% return on our $$$. So, the deal is pretty sweet so far. A local Accountancy outfit deals with the tenants who are a fairly big player in the cinema industry at a cost to us of 5 grand a year. The only problem that I can anticipate is if the 1 mill at 7% ever goes up to over 10% this will knacker our return (though we could always buy that extra portion ourselves, or get more investors in). So far (3 years) it has been good, get a cheque every 3 months & no hassles.

clips
12-05-2005, 12:43 PM
good for you mate, looks like a nice little earner.....i've found property investing to be like going to the rugby, there are 30 people actually playing the game and 35,000 sitting in the stands on the sideline who all have an opinion on what the 30 on the field are doing wrong.

dinosaur
17-05-2005, 08:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Duncan I am talking about New Zealand Auckland My lawyers Are very good You get a permit for a granny flat and rent it out to others you may find you have big liablities Even the Fire regulations are different in some cases. Yes you can do it until somebody wakes up. Subdivision later is probally the best way of legallizing the cituation if possible.


Enigma, you may need new lawyers.
In most council areas, Manukau, North Shore, Auckland, there is nothing in their District Plans to my knowledge, that says a Minor Household Unit Granny Flat)is only for the use of relatives. Franklin District had a requirement that the minor unit (70m sq max)is used by only relatives or farm workers, although their new plan change seems to have dropped this restriction. The fire regulations DO NOT vary in NZ. Every building comes under the NZ Buiding Act. But one thing to watch though, is whether there is fire seperation where the flat is attached to or in the main dwelling, as this requirement can be waived where the owner states that the flat will be used only by a blood relative and the council granted a building regulation waiver. THIS MAY NOT BE NOTED ON THE TITLE.

Years ago Manukau City used to be quite tough on Granny Flats and you had to have a clause inserted on the Title stating that the property was a single household unit, then they removed this requirement in the early 90's. Then because too many people were building granny flats as home and income, thus putting a strain on services, etc, Manukau City last year made a change to their District Plan and now all new minor household units (60m sq max) are treated as subdivisions, and you now need seperate drainage connections and make contributions for sanitary and stormwater services. I think you may even be rated as 2 properties although you may never be able to sell them off seperately if your section size is below that allowed for subdivision. This has made it very expensive for people wanting a genuine granny flat.

Even if the current District Plan states a Granny Flat is for relatives only, the particular flat may have 'existing use rights' as it depends on the rules when it was constructed.

Hope this helps you.

BRICKS
17-05-2005, 10:19 AM
For brick buildings come to Paraparaumu..[8D]

17-05-2005, 01:59 PM
Dinosaur they picked holes in existing properties I was looking at. But most people assume you can just rent them out. So general advice to do what Mac Dunk suggested needed to be tempered with some extensive checking. As many land agents said yes selling as home and income potential. But solicitors said no way. All properties have to be extensively researched. I have even had a builder of new homes that did not know regulations.

dinosaur
18-05-2005, 08:13 AM
Yes I agree Enigma. The main word in those types of property notices is "potential". As I pointed out, with changes like Manukau has implemented, that potential could be very expensive to realise.

Each property does need to be researched, but if the Granny flat is free standing (which Mac Dunk was talking about)and at least 2m from the main dwelling and the kitchen has been permitted, as opposed to a sleepout that has had a kitchen added without a permit, then it is most likley you can let it out to the general public. If a flat within a home has been specifically built and consented with the appropriate fire ratings installed, then there is no reason whey that too cannot be a home & income.

In the Botany area in the late 90's, early 00's a large number of homes were constructed with legal minor household units attached to the main dwelling so as to be home and incomes. The min section size to do that 'as of right' was 600m sq. So many in fact, were being built that in future stages of the subdivision, the developer reduced the section sizes to under 600m sq to stop it from being done, as the covenents couldn't stop it.

duncan macgregor
26-05-2005, 02:27 PM
DINOSAUR, I have an idea that you may need to question the advice you are getting. Personal experience from someone that did it. I built about thirty 2brm granny flats complete with garages or car ports in the eastern suburbs of auckland two further south, three in rodney. All were rented out as income producers, some through reinz agents some properties were on sold etc etc etc. One buyer bought about 27 in total, over a three year period, he only bought properties that he could build a grannyflat on then onsold the properties with absolutely no problem what so ever. The rules and sizes are different from one suburb to the next, but most places in the Auckland area it is 65 sq mtrs living area. Land cover comes in to it normal height restrictions apply you can connect services to the existing house, ex one power meter and one water meter for both houses. Or if it is rural connect to the existing septic tank and save yourself a fortune. It is for the switched on investor. By the time the herd wake up they will have rules to stop it. The one thing my investor got out of it all is he now is a master builder because he successfully did all those homes problem free. If you want to worry about something worry about that. macdunk

dinosaur
26-05-2005, 04:51 PM
Macdunk. My advice is correct, I'm involved directly, although haven't done a minor unit in Rodney. Yes I know you can put garages verandahs on etc.

The rules USED to be quite slack but are/have changed re minor household units (MHU) as councils are using the RMA to control infill housing. Especially Manukau, as mentioned, where the size for a MHU is only 60 sq mtrs and you now have to apply for a subdivision consent, even though you are not subdividing as such. It's getting harder all the time. ARC have also got envolved on rural lots re septic tanks which even effects a straight bedroom addition. Have to get the current system assessed now.

Point taken on the MB bit. Just like mechanics, there are some good ones and bad ones. Personally I prefer Certified Builders, which you can't join just because you built a house or two, but the Building Practitioner regime will change everything beginning 2007.

ronaldo
27-05-2005, 11:06 AM
Quoted rental returns are misleading.Its always the gross return.Nett should be quoted as expenses are considerable,rates insurance,maintenance.vac while awaiting tennants or repairing.Return on property investment is only worthwhile because of Capital gain.Thats what its all about.Forget about the rental return-better to have money in bank.Capital gain is what makes it worthwhile

duncan macgregor
27-05-2005, 07:29 PM
RONALDO, You are pretty near to what it is all about. Capital gain is the profit. rent is living expences. Juggle the two with someones elses money work out the numbers and do it. macdunk

rentex
22-05-2016, 06:17 PM
Just found this old thread, how are you all going with your investments now?
There have been large fluctuations in mortgage rates, plus increases and decreases in capital values in the past 11 years. Council rules keep changing too.
Properties that support multiple tenancies continue to provide acceptable yields.

fungus pudding
22-05-2016, 06:20 PM
Just found this old thread, how are you all going with your investments now?
There have been large fluctuations in mortgage rates, plus increases and decreases in capital values in the past 11 years. Council rules keep changing too.
Properties that support multiple tenancies continue to provide acceptable yields.

I'm happy enough with my set up.

rentex
22-05-2016, 07:35 PM
I'm happy enough with my set up.
That's great, thanks for the quick response. :)

The properties that we have been managing since this thread was started are doing well.
Many have had carpet, plenty of curtains, lots of appliances and a few have had majors like bathrooms or roofs but overall solid.
Rents now are $150-300 up on 10 years ago depending on property, location, condition, etc, and this is not including any MHU additions. Don't have a bunch of property valuations handy but could get an overview by looking at median sales price stats on landlords.co.nz

JBmurc
22-05-2016, 10:05 PM
sold my investment/spec properties long time ago that I held ....looking to buy again ....but will be in the deep south not interested in buyer for neg gearing in the big smoke etc... looking at 4-5% return after AISC(interest,rates etc)

Kees
23-05-2016, 09:49 AM
Bought a 14 unit property in February x motel complex now being used for long term rentals going extra well seems to be hitting 15% on purchase price
less costs so very pleased with this.

JBmurc
23-05-2016, 11:01 AM
Bought a 14 unit property in February x motel complex now being used for long term rentals going extra well seems to be hitting 15% on purchase price
less costs so very pleased with this.

Sounds good ....been looking to buy something along the same lines ...

Many look good from the outset but once you take out all the costs out (and the fact it's going to have a higher up-keep costs etc) the 15-20% gross yield ends up much the same as some 9-12% yields etc

Commercial property certainly has many more issues around insurance NBS min rules etc ..

Kees
23-05-2016, 11:36 AM
Sounds good ....been looking to buy something along the same lines ...

Many look good from the outset but once you take out all the costs out (and the fact it's going to have a higher up-keep costs etc) the 15-20% gross yield ends up much the same as some 9-12% yields etc

Commercial property certainly has many more issues around insurance NBS min rules etc ..

Quite happy with 9-12% property was well looked after although we are slowly doing them up and lucky to have good management on site
so hopefully no worries although with tenants specially residential there are always surprises.
Insurance was ridicules specially earthquake cover is a wrought if I was a bit more adventurous I would not cover for that seeing the place is build like a brick sh3house (its actually block) and build by real tradesmen and material.
the upkeep cost should be no different then stand alone units if not less because the tenants live in a close community they seem to look and take pride in their living standard but time will tell early days yet . Usually been into industrial buildings so a different kettle.

NeverQuestion
25-05-2016, 11:20 AM
No Home or investment property... Trying hard to find one in Auckland tho with no luck :(

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 11:38 AM
Quite happy with 9-12% property was well looked after although we are slowly doing them up and lucky to have good management on site
so hopefully no worries although with tenants specially residential there are always surprises.
Insurance was ridicules specially earthquake cover is a wrought if I was a bit more adventurous I would not cover for that seeing the place is build like a brick sh3house (its actually block) and build by real tradesmen and material.
the upkeep cost should be no different then stand alone units if not less because the tenants live in a close community they seem to look and take pride in their living standard but time will tell early days yet . Usually been into industrial buildings so a different kettle.


Don't assume that block will be immune to earthquake damage. Timber is the best material in a quake.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 12:05 PM
Yes looking into a industrial building with a couple of tenants in dunedin 100k under RV ... 10% yield .. tenants pay all costs ....banks talking about 1% cash back on purchase price

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 12:08 PM
Yes looking into a industrial building with a couple of tenants in dunedin 100k under RV ... 10% yield .. tenants pay all costs ....banks talking about 1% cash back on purchase price

Leasehold or freehold?

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 12:39 PM
leasehold ..port of otago

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 12:55 PM
leasehold ..port of otago

Now Chalmers properties. Good luck.

Kees
25-05-2016, 12:58 PM
Don't assume that block will be immune to earthquake damage. Timber is the best material in a quake.

Having gone through all of ChCh eartquakes I don't assume anything.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 01:25 PM
Now Chalmers properties. Good luck.

yes correct -http://chalmersproperties.co.nz/portfolio/dunedin/

something wrong with them ?? looks like they own the vast bulk of the commercial land close to CBD/PORT
of course they will continue to lift lease of the land reviewed every 7 yrs

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 02:20 PM
yes correct -http://chalmersproperties.co.nz/portfolio/dunedin/

something wrong with them ?? looks like they own the vast bulk of the commercial land close to CBD/PORT
of course they will continue to lift lease of the land reviewed every 7 yrs

They will and have been quite harsh at times. However I genuinely wish you luck. Be aware that value will rise and fall largely related to proximity of next rent review. Tenants will pay rental based on same per square metre rate as freehold, meaning that when ground rent rises they may be paying too much and therefore your next rental review might be disappointing. It depends a bit when review dates fall. The other downside is if you want to sell you will find a smaller pool of buyers. Some investors simply will not consider leasehold purchases and lenders used to limit mortgages, although that may have changed a bit. . I have owned a couple of these back in Port Otago days, and have been involved in leasing and managing others as well as DCC and Otago Foundation trust leasehold. These days I would not touch leasehold at all unless it was a 21 year term with no reviews and in the first year or so of the new term, and even then - probably not. There aren't many of these left, most having taken up the bait when 7 year ground review were offered at lower initial rents; a few years ago most were 21 year reviews. That's just me though, and others will have different ideas.
Yes, they do own the bulk of land east of CBD. Remember most of that land was reclaimed from original harbour. There is a plaque outside the John Wickliffe house in the exchange marking where the first settlors' ships landed.
It has often been cited as a reason for Dunedin's slow progress in industrial development as little freehold land with industrial zoning was available, although I have my doubts that that is the sole reason; even though I have met many industrialists, developers, and tenants who are not interested in leasehold. However it doesn't seem to have been as much of a problem in Wellington which has a lot of leased land.
Best of British.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 03:15 PM
They will and have been quite harsh at times. However I genuinely wish you luck. Be aware that value will rise and fall largely related to proximity of next rent review. Tenants will pay rental based on same per square metre rate as freehold, meaning that when ground rent rises they may be paying too much and therefore your next rental review might be disappointing. It depends a bit when review dates fall. The other downside is if you want to sell you will find a smaller pool of buyers. Some investors simply will not consider leasehold purchases and lenders used to limit mortgages, although that may have changed a bit. . I have owned a couple of these back in Port Otago days, and have been involved in leasing and managing others as well as DCC and Otago Foundation trust leasehold. These days I would not touch leasehold at all unless it was a 21 year term with no reviews and in the first year or so of the new term, and even then - probably not. There aren't many of these left, most having taken up the bait when 7 year ground review were offered at lower initial rents; a few years ago most were 21 year reviews. That's just me though, and others will have different ideas.
Yes, they do own the bulk of land east of CBD. Remember most of that land was reclaimed from original harbour. There is a plaque outside the John Wickliffe house in the exchange marking where the first settlors' ships landed.
It has often been cited as a reason for Dunedin's slow progress in industrial development as little freehold land with industrial zoning was available, although I have my doubts that that is the sole reason; even though I have met many industrialists, developers, and tenants who are not interested in leasehold. However it doesn't seem to have been as much of a problem in Wellington which has a lot of leased land.
Best of British.

Yeah thanks for that... so much to go over ....so hard to find a good investment in property at the moment(only looking at southland / Otago) ....trying to get a decent NBS 67% + or no bank will lend the fund or get insurance ....and with pretty much 80% of all the commercial property I'm coming across(with decent yield) is below this amount it was good to finally find one that was above and was in a great location all costs taken care of ... 6% nett income after AISC (0% deposit,4.5% interest rate)

Right got some docs on the lease dunedin property ...looks like a ground lease of 21yrs started in 2011..but reviews been changed to 7yrs like you were saying .. didn't seem like a lot of money at the RV of the land only round 5% but of course this could change ....but surely with hundreds of businesses on these lease lands they could just ramp up rates to much ???

Building/improvement value is just higher than asking price

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 03:35 PM
Yeah thanks for that... so much to go over ....so hard to find a good investment in property at the moment(only looking at southland / Otago) ....trying to get a decent NBS 67% + or no bank will lend the fund or get insurance ....and with pretty much 80% of all the commercial property I'm coming across(with decent yield) is below this amount it was good to finally find one that was above and was in a great location all costs taken care of ... 6% nett income after AISC (0% deposit,4.5% interest rate)

Right got some docs on the lease dunedin property ...looks like a ground lease of 21yrs started in 2011..but reviews been changed to 7yrs like you were saying .. didn't seem like a lot of money at the RV of the land only round 5% but of course this could change ....but surely with hundreds of businesses on these lease lands they could just ramp up rates to much ???

Building/improvement value is just higher than asking price

There have been a few battles over ground lease reviews over the last few years. Talk to your valuer and get an idea of where the current rent on that property sits compared to other similarly zones properties in area.
Improvement value being just higher than asking price indicates your interest in ground lease is of low value and lessors' is high. IOW if the ground lease was $ 1 per annum for next hundred years improvement value would be the same, but asking price would be through the roof. (Lessors' interest in land would be low and lessees' would be high) So price just over improvement value does not necessarily make it a bargain. I have seen some that cannot achieve improvement value. Like I said before, it can depend on how tenants' rent reviews and ground rent reviews align. (N.B I'm not criticising the deal - just pointing out what to consider)
You are right that it's hard to find a good investment. I don't bother looking anymore. My personal circumstances mean LPTs are far better for me.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 04:38 PM
yes LPT would be a far safer investment but can't see the bank loaning me all that much to buy them ...going keep looking over Dunedin way ...think its a better bet than Invercargill (larger population 120k vs 50k) ...of course got the smaller rural towns ,,,but so much risk ...

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 04:47 PM
yes LPT would be a far safer investment but can't see the bank loaning me all that much to buy them ...going keep looking over Dunedin way ...think its a better bet than Invercargill (larger population 120k vs 50k) ...of course got the smaller rural towns ,,,but so much risk ...

I know exactly what you mean, yet the most hassle free property I have ever owned is in Gore.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 06:10 PM
I know exactly what you mean, yet the most hassle free property I have ever owned is in Gore.

right yes have spotted a few there ...my wife comes from Gore ....

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 07:05 PM
In checking the REA.nz search engine and there is some 800+ commercial property listings avaiable in dunedin(leases+land+buildings) ....thats a right scare off ,,right there ..

fungus pudding
25-05-2016, 07:21 PM
In checking the REA.nz search engine and there is some 800+ commercial property listings avaiable in dunedin(leases+land+buildings) ....thats a right scare off ,,right there ..

Just had a look at that site. It's horribly disorganised. There are some residential properties and businesses thrown in, but mainly leases, many of which seem to be spaces in office buildings etc.
Hopeless site to wade through looking for anything actually for sale. Anyway- I hope you're as pleased with your Gore deal as I am with mine, and that it's equally trouble free. ;):t_up::p.

JBmurc
25-05-2016, 08:10 PM
Yes mostly trouble free :)

JBmurc
26-05-2016, 01:15 PM
many of the PGG Wrightson properties up for sale in the deep south 6yr fixed lease 5+5 rights

ticks most of my boxes .....what you reckon F.P ??

http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/commercial-property-for-sale/auction-1080115099.htm

fungus pudding
26-05-2016, 02:08 PM
many of the PGG Wrightson properties up for sale in the deep south 6yr fixed lease 5+5 rights

ticks most of my boxes .....what you reckon F.P ??

http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/commercial-property-for-sale/auction-1080115099.htm

Looks like a sale and lease back. I would be wary of Tapanui, it would frighten me, only because I know nothing about the place, except it seems a long way off the beaten track - but is there any other users or uses for the building in 6 years if Wrightons vacate? Remember the rights of renewal favour the tenant but are not in your interests. (The tenant is not committed - but you are until the tenant decides whether or not he will exercise his rights)
The building is obviously good but I know so little about the area that I'm not the right person to ask. Sorry I'm not much help with this one.

JBmurc
26-05-2016, 03:17 PM
Looks like a sale and lease back. I would be wary of Tapanui, it would frighten me, only because I know nothing about the place, except it seems a long way off the beaten track - but is there any other users or uses for the building in 6 years if Wrightons vacate? Remember the rights of renewal favour the tenant but are not in your interests. (The tenant is not committed - but you are until the tenant decides whether or not he will exercise his rights)
The building is obviously good but I know so little about the area that I'm not the right person to ask. Sorry I'm not much help with this one.

Yes no stress I'm actually much more keen on the Winton(central Southland one (grew up in area) surrounded by some of the most expensive farmland in NZ.. little to nil good sized commercial available in the town ....

fungus pudding
26-05-2016, 03:28 PM
Yes no stress I'm actually much more keen on the Winton(central Southland one (grew up in area) surrounded by some of the most expensive farmland in NZ.. little to nil good sized commercial available in the town ....

Looks pretty good; once again I know little about the area, but you do and obviously have confidence. Gore one looks ok too..

JBmurc
26-05-2016, 04:32 PM
Looks pretty good; once again I know little about the area, but you do and obviously have confidence. Gore one looks ok too..

Yes Gore one sold (1.3mill) ...guess when it come down to it with any commercial property in this hot market it's always going to be hard to find the perfect property ...location , lease agreement , NBS ,net yield, price to value etc ,,,, and more so... just finding the best of the bunch ...

JBmurc
20-03-2017, 01:42 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11817415

Research firm Digital Finance Analytics has warned that one in five Australians could be in serious trouble if rates were to rise by just 50 basis points



Personal think it could be as bad if not worse in many areas in NZ ....

h2so4
20-03-2017, 02:04 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11817415

Research firm Digital Finance Analytics has warned that one in five Australians could be in serious trouble if rates were to rise by just 50 basis points



Personal think it could be as bad if not worse in many areas in NZ ....
Thats rubbish. How does it affect those that dont have mortgages?..or don't even own property?

blackcap
20-03-2017, 02:34 PM
Thats rubbish. How does it affect those that dont have mortgages?..or don't even own property?

one in 5. that is 20%. I think more than 20% of ppl own their own property and have a mortgage. So it is possible.

But I doubt the 50 basis points causing that. 200 basis points would hurt a lot of people and Australians are far more aggressive when it comes to mortgages. My younger brother in Sydney on slightly over 100k was offered a $1 million mortgage... (something unheard of here)

h2so4
20-03-2017, 03:14 PM
one in 5. that is 20%. I think more than 20% of ppl own their own property and have a mortgage. So it is possible.

But I doubt the 50 basis points causing that. 200 basis points would hurt a lot of people and Australians are far more aggressive when it comes to mortgages. My younger brother in Sydney on slightly over 100k was offered a $1 million mortgage... (something unheard of here)

What every man woman and child?

"You just wait until your father gets home your in serious trouble"

blackcap
20-03-2017, 03:26 PM
What every man woman and child?

"You just wait until your father gets home your in serious trouble"

well obviously wives and children of a father, or children of parents who have a mortgage are going to be in just as much trouble as papa and mama so I will stand by my statement.

h2so4
20-03-2017, 04:01 PM
well obviously wives and children of a father, or children of parents who have a mortgage are going to be in just as much trouble as papa and mama so I will stand by my statement.

Well I hope Aaron doesn't start reading this thread.

macduffy
20-03-2017, 04:17 PM
One in five Australians does seem a little extreme. I would have thought that the bigger threat ( than a 50 basis points increase in interest rates) would be the prospect of a bursting of the property price bubble and the subsequent collapse of house prices in Sydney, particularly, and other state capital cities.

fungus pudding
20-03-2017, 04:40 PM
One in five Australians does seem a little extreme. I would have thought that the bigger threat ( than a 50 basis points increase in interest rates) would be the prospect of a bursting of the property price bubble and the subsequent collapse of house prices in Sydney, particularly, and other state capital cities.

It's a sharp interest rate rise that will deflate housing and share market. Not likely unless Trump gets his way with his wild proposals.

h2so4
20-03-2017, 06:19 PM
One in five Australians does seem a little extreme. I would have thought that the bigger threat ( than a 50 basis points increase in interest rates) would be the prospect of a bursting of the property price bubble and the subsequent collapse of house prices in Sydney, particularly, and other state capital cities.

Buy in the dips.

macduffy
20-03-2017, 07:38 PM
It's a sharp interest rate rise that will deflate housing and share market. Not likely unless Trump gets his way with his wild proposals.

Yes, a sharp interest rate rise would be the most likely cause but asset price reversals come about through a loss of confidence - for whatever reason.

JBmurc
21-03-2017, 08:29 AM
Yes surely they meant one in five Morg holders and not just people etc ....as we know Property is very sentiment charged ...spike in interest rates could well be pin the pricks many bubble cities

fungus pudding
21-03-2017, 08:44 AM
Yes surely they meant one in five Morg holders and not just people etc ....as we know Property is very sentiment charged ...spike in interest rates could well be pin the pricks many bubble cities

Yes. One in 5 mortgage holders sounds believable and probably realistic. One in 5 property owners is nonsense given that approximately 50% of properties are supposedly unencumbered.

h2so4
21-03-2017, 10:03 AM
Yes. One in 5 mortgage holders sounds believable and probably realistic. One in 5 property owners is nonsense given that approximately 50% of properties are supposedly unencumbered.

What about all those large offset accounts.
Don't think 50 bassis points would be a serious problem.

fungus pudding
21-03-2017, 10:16 AM
What about all those large offset accounts.
Don't think 50 bassis points would be a serious problem.

Offset accounts are hardly relevant to home owners who are ticked up to the eyeballs. Certainly a 0.5 increase won't knock many out, but 1% - 1.5% - 2% and they'll drop like sprayed flies.

h2so4
21-03-2017, 10:22 AM
Offset accounts are hardly relevant to home owners who are ticked up to the eyeballs. Certainly a 0.5 increase won't knock many out, but 1% - 1.5% - 2% and they'll drop like sprayed flies.

So whay are we lookiing at GFC 2 or a few dead flies?

fungus pudding
21-03-2017, 10:27 AM
So whay are we lookiing at GFC 2 or a few dead flies?

I have no idea what you're looking at. It's certainly not your keyboard.

h2so4
21-03-2017, 11:17 AM
I have no idea what you're looking at. It's certainly not your keyboard.

No flies on you fungus.

fungus pudding
21-03-2017, 11:31 AM
No flies on you fungus.

I doubt they'd be anywhere near you either Sulphuric.:p

h2so4
21-03-2017, 11:56 AM
I doubt they'd be anywhere near you either Sulphuric.:p

No flies just a few elephants.:ohmy:

alistar_mid
24-03-2017, 03:00 PM
Used to own a bunch, now only own one.

Sold them off recently as I though the market was near its peak - it has flattened out recently but who really knows

Paid off mortgage on remaining one, paid of mortgage on primary residence, had a bunch of money to throw into Shares / Managed Funds / Peer to peer lending / Private equity.. and an audi rs4 as a toy lol

JBmurc
03-05-2017, 10:16 AM
Looks like I have just sold both of my spec sections I purchase this time last year 10% down and only recently paid the rest less GST ....pretty much used all banks funds only paying the interest legals out of personal income ....102k gross profit ....so should be around 580% return on est. 15k of my own money spent in total (interest,legal,rates) .... Got to love the leverage of Property

have been looking over dozens of commercial ,res rentals etc but I just don't get the buzz of the low returns after all costs and esp with property at the tail end of a boom market Cap growth could well be pretty flat over the next several years ...

maybe just a few cheap sections ...develop one targeting the growing retiring market

Meextr
18-06-2017, 09:48 PM
Have quite a few investment properties but selling down some of the ones that don't perform the best and a few which appeal to lower socio-economic tenants. Now time to invest some surplus in shares while I wait for property market to slow down. I don't like to buy when everyone else is. I don't like competition for buying.

JBmurc
19-06-2017, 10:32 AM
Have quite a few investment properties but selling down some of the ones that don't perform the best and a few which appeal to lower socio-economic tenants. Now time to invest some surplus in shares while I wait for property market to slow down. I don't like to buy when everyone else is. I don't like competition for buying.

Exactly what I'm doing ...I see much of the NZ market bubbling along at really unaffordable level to NZ incomes with only low rates keeping it all together ... something got to give and I don't see NZ income growth making up the difference ... two big drivers of our tiny economy
Tourism and Property .. I see the expense of Queenstown is starting to turn off many ....just think a day with the family of four up the local ski field + accommodation + meals = $1k+ per day easy....

then look at property one of the new out of town suburbs of Queenstown Shotover country aimed at entry level locals .. a new 200sqm average family home on 700sqm land sold for just over 1mill .I worked out it would give a land value of around $500,000 only around 18months ago you were paying half that....

Meextr
19-06-2017, 10:45 AM
Exactly what I'm doing ...I see much of the NZ market bubbling along at really unaffordable level to NZ incomes with only low rates keeping it all together ... something got to give and I don't see NZ income growth making up the difference ...are two big drivers of our tiny economy
Tourism and Property ..
I have my investment property in my home town of Rotorua where tourism has a major impact. While it does not directly effect my rentals I see the money that is being generated from tourism being re-invested in business and the town is starting to have a real buzz. I hope that this generates movement into Rotorua so we see house price increases maintained. I will not buy yet though. My view for the future is definitely fewer properties but also better properties.

ari
28-09-2017, 09:47 AM
Ex Herald....great article....http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11926485

alistar_mid
09-10-2017, 01:57 PM
Ex Herald....great article....http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11926485

yeah its like that or somewhat like that when you start out... but a decade +later with good career, Auckland capital gains etc... my lifes somewhat luxurious now lol

fungus pudding
09-10-2017, 03:25 PM
yeah its like that or somewhat like that when you start out... but a decade +later with good career, Auckland capital gains etc... my lifes somewhat luxurious now lol

Of course it is, and you learn a lot about wise spending. I've always said property is the classic investment to keep you broke while you're getting rich. And that's where you learn to extract good value out of every dollar.

alistar_mid
11-10-2017, 03:22 PM
Of course it is, and you learn a lot about wise spending. I've always said property is the classic investment to keep you broke while you're getting rich. And that's where you learn to extract good value out of every dollar.

thats a pretty good analogy - or description of it.

It was like that too.. like wasn't poor but didn't feel "rich" until I realised cap gains gone up faster than rents hence was effectively sitting on a pile of cash that might get more in an term deposit. wasn't til I liquidated most of my portfolio and the money showed up in my bank account.. then I kinda felt like I had made it.

Moneys in index funds, managed funds etc now. Just had a fn stellar month, 3% to month ended 11th October, thats only slightly less than the annual yeild I used to get (on market value).

rentex
12-10-2017, 09:56 AM
@alistar_mid;
Great return. Do you think any of that could be due to the managed funds provider holding properties (through health care shares/etc) and they have been updated to reflect current property valuations?

alistar_mid
12-10-2017, 01:12 PM
@alistar_mid;
Great return. Do you think any of that could be due to the managed funds provider holding properties (through health care shares/etc) and they have been updated to reflect current property valuations?

not sure, most of my stuffs in Milford which some of their funds did very well this month (Dynamic fund for example 3%), and they are big on some underlying stocks like a2 milk which have done very well. Overall my managed funds up 2.4%

I also have international ETF's that overall did close to 7%, thats both the underlying stocks going up in value, and a bit of currency stuff around NZ getting weaker cause of our political uncertainty.

So total managed funds / kiwisaver / ETF's - up 3%.

compare this to a place I had worth 675k, doing 450 a week = $23k a year rent. Less rates, body corp etc... lets say you are left with $20k

20/675 = 2.9%

fungus pudding
12-10-2017, 01:25 PM
not sure, most of my stuffs in Milford which some of their funds did very well this month (Dynamic fund for example 3%), and they are big on some underlying stocks like a2 milk which have done very well. Overall my managed funds up 2.4%

I also have international ETF's that overall did close to 7%, thats both the underlying stocks going up in value, and a bit of currency stuff around NZ getting weaker cause of our political uncertainty.

So total managed funds / kiwisaver / ETF's - up 3%.

compare this to a place I had worth 675k, doing 450 a week = $23k a year rent. Less rates, body corp etc... lets say you are left with $20k

20/675 = 2.9%

Is it mortgaged and if so what is the return on your initial input? And let's say you now factor in any increase or decrease in value to give a fair comparison.

artemis
12-10-2017, 02:03 PM
Is it mortgaged and if so what is the return on your initial input? And let's say you now factor in any increase or decrease in value to give a fair comparison.

Correct. Leverage is a huge component of return on investment, and is the main reason people invest in rental property - residential or commercial - over other opportunities.

fungus pudding
12-10-2017, 02:30 PM
Correct. Leverage is a huge component of return on investment, and is the main reason people invest in rental property - residential or commercial - over other opportunities.

Yep. Gotta be sure you're not comparing apples with trucks.

alistar_mid
12-10-2017, 02:52 PM
Is it mortgaged and if so what is the return on your initial input? And let's say you now factor in any increase or decrease in value to give a fair comparison.

nah wasn't mortgaged at that point in time as I had sold off other rentals and paid down the remaining mortgage

But with leverage if the gross yeild is less than the mortgage interest rate, leverage is just gonna make it worse



But yeah, i'm fully aware property i quite in depth to work out ROI, you have leverage, tax breaks, cap gain etc etc. Its not as straight forward as shares.

But given cap gains had gone up so much faster than rents and IMHO market was near the peak, i elected to liquidate my most of my rentals and put the money into other stuff, which happened to be managed funds, etf, private equity, harmoney etc

BeeBop
12-10-2017, 02:58 PM
I own a few properties, I measure their yield on current market value and return on initial investment. Selling off the biggest one as it is mortgage free....doesn’t affect the LVR limit on the others. Money will be better used in other asset classes and providing freedom of choice to us. Many property investors measure yield on their purchase value, something I don’t agree with. And yes, the leverage has been fantastic in this past booming market with the low interest rates and some good timing. Previously I put my share profits back into the mortgage when my LVR was higher, now it doesn’t make sense so I am enjoying letting some more of my shares run rather than securing profits a bit earlier (for mortgage benefit). Shares are far more interesting than property!

fungus pudding
12-10-2017, 03:15 PM
I own a few properties, I measure their yield on current market value and return on initial investment. Selling off the biggest one as it is mortgage free....doesn’t affect the LVR limit on the others. Money will be better used in other asset classes and providing freedom of choice to us. Many property investors measure yield on their purchase value, something I don’t agree with. And yes, the leverage has been fantastic in this past booming market with the low interest rates and some good timing. Previously I put my share profits back into the mortgage when my LVR was higher, now it doesn’t make sense so I am enjoying letting some more of my shares run rather than securing profits a bit earlier (for mortgage benefit). Shares are far more interesting than property!

Except you can't drive past them. Nothing like the thrill of driving past your latest skyscraper.

alistar_mid
12-10-2017, 03:27 PM
Except you can't drive past them. Nothing like the thrill of driving past your latest skyscraper.

it got to the point where I hadn't physically seen a number of mine in 5+ years. It was all on paper pretty much.

I like going into companies and pretending I am the owner of them (technically I am)

"yes and can i please change the potato and gravy for a coleslaw?"

that will be an extra 50c sir..

"hmmm I am a restaurant brands shareholder... i don't think I should have to pay that... can I not pay that.... I'm not gonna pay that"

BeeBop
12-10-2017, 05:23 PM
Except you can't drive past them. Nothing like the thrill of driving past your latest skyscraper.

Ah ha...but I can see the price change by the second on my screen and as alistar_mid says, I can benefit from the companies e.g. Carnival’s shareholder benefit, or not feel too bad about paying my MIL’s electricity bill/inflated internet charges!

iceman
13-10-2017, 04:24 PM
Interesting discussion and I agree leverage is a huge component. But if one has a lowly mortgaged or a mortgage free investment property, an alternative to selling it to buy managed funds or shares is to simply remortgage it and invest the money in shares. Invest in 2 markets at the same time. I personally feel I am not getting the most out of my equity, including rental properties, if they're mortgaged below 60-65% of market value as I don't "need" the income from them for personal use yet. So I keep topping up the mortgages to invest further.

alistar_mid
01-02-2018, 12:37 PM
Interesting discussion and I agree leverage is a huge component. But if one has a lowly mortgaged or a mortgage free investment property, an alternative to selling it to buy managed funds or shares is to simply remortgage it and invest the money in shares. Invest in 2 markets at the same time. I personally feel I am not getting the most out of my equity, including rental properties, if they're mortgaged below 60-65% of market value as I don't "need" the income from them for personal use yet. So I keep topping up the mortgages to invest further.

Exactly. Leverage is great with property cause it amplifies your returns when starting out, and then at the other end of the investment lifecycle you have a credit facility that because its secured on something banks like (property) you get to borrow at low interest rates.

For me starting in property investment in Auckland 15 years ago, and I stress INVESTMENT not speculation... ie yield based where I buying apartments and townhouses weekly rent close to 1/500th capital value - eg a place I got for $188k at panmure I rented it for $360 a week, a studio in Emily place $140k, rented for $320 a week. The golden era of yields.

But over time, capital value growth outpaced rent growth, yields fell, and eventually you get to where you are sitting on a bunch of money and its return is quite low. So I liquidated all but one, paid off the mortgage on that one and on the primary residence. The reason I kept that one, as I figured its not a bad idea to have some exposure to the Auckland property market long term (primary residence doesn't really count).

But yeah having it mortgage free, $650k value with a rent of $600 a week (this was the same place that was originally $188 / $360), I decided to draw down on that equity and throw just over $100k in harmoney (I call it the harmoney experiment), throw some money into PE (milford PE fund 2 and various snowball effect stuff) and random other investments.

Its been good, I still have a whole bunch of equity I could draw down on, I think some debt is good esp with these interest rates, but given 8 years of strong markets, not too much debt... need to remain cautiously optimistic