Listed Property Trusts

[Billy Boy]

It could be coz the cap gains & land taxes are being bandied about.
BB

[RRR]

All LPT's are trading well above NTA and dividends are not going up any time soon. Damn, I missed the opp to sell VHP at 145, GMT at 115 and ARG at 108! When I thought about selling them the share prices started to go down. I am usually a buyer and in the wealth accumulation phase and I rarely sell;)

[Joshuatree]

AEU, AZF, GHC, CMW, INA,TIX in Aus all holding up pretty well considering. SLF an ASX 200 prop fund down re 10% in 2 weeks.

[Aaron]

The PFI and Direct Property merger document arrived Saturday. The answer is probably in the document somewhere (I have only skim read) but why is $9.8mil of goodwill created in the merged entity when neither company had goodwill prior to the merger.

[Billy Boy]

All LPT's are trading well above NTA and dividends are not going up any time soon. Damn, I missed the opp to sell VHP at 145, GMT at 115 and ARG at 108! When I thought about selling them the share prices started to go down. I am usually a buyer and in the wealth accumulation phase and I rarely sell;)
Hang on untill November - Dec. when they will start north again
BB

[fungus pudding]

Hang on untill November - Dec. when they will start north again
BB

Why November - December?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Aaron was it Direct Property Fund that tried to amalgamate with what is now Argossy Property (ARG) if so they seem desperate to set up a merger. I have all ready voted NO. because I suspect this is the case.

Aaron ARG was ING property trust. Hope this helps.

[fungus pudding]

Aaron was it Direct Property Fund that tried to amalgamate with what is now Argossy Property (ARG) if so they seem desperate to set up a merger. I have all ready voted NO. because I suspect this is the case.

No. It was DNZ. DPF and PFI seems sensible so far, A marriage made in heaven perhaps, I but haven't read the great book of words yet.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fungus Pudding thanks for that

[Aaron]

Yes thanks FP it is PFI and DPF (unlisted property fund). As far as I can tell we will get a company just over double in size with a continuing majority of industrial property mostly in Auckland.
I will vote yes. From the pro forma(I think Pro Forma means "made up") FY13 statements I get a 10% increase in distributable profit per share and a 1cent increase in NTA although the LVR ratio rises to 38.6%. The WALT rises to 5.6 years but rent reviews appear to be quite different Fixed reviews(DPF) vs Market and index linked for PFI. This may be significant, perhaps someone with better understanding of rent reviews could enlighten me if this should be a concern.

[fungus pudding]

Yes thanks FP it is PFI and DPF (unlisted property fund). As far as I can tell we will get a company just over double in size with a continuing majority of industrial property mostly in Auckland.
I will vote yes. From the pro forma(I think Pro Forma means "made up") FY13 statements I get a 10% increase in distributable profit per share and a 1cent increase in NTA although the LVR ratio rises to 38.6%. The WALT rises to 5.6 years but rent reviews appear to be quite different Fixed reviews(DPF) vs Market and index linked for PFI. This may be significant, perhaps someone with better understanding of rent reviews could enlighten me if this should be a concern.

Without reading full lease details there is probably little difference. Market rent is usually rental reviews at 3yearly intervals, although there are variations in some leases. Indexed are usually adjusted annually by the rate of inflation then with full market review 3, 4 or 5 yearly. Sounds better because of annual adjustment, but not necessarily. A competent valuer should factor this into his calculations. Indexed reviews are far more common in Australia - almost standard in some parts. Overall probably not worth worrying about in this situation. Like you I will vote for. Looks like a good pile of quality buildings with good tenants.

[troyvdh]

As I have stated in the past ...PFI has been a superb investment for me ...Can anyone highlight where a certain P Masfen has made a loss on an investment...he holds 4m+ ...2 % of PFI....as an aside have a look at the SP performance compared with KIP...

[macduffy]

From today's NBR article.

"The picture has not always been rosy for this family. In the early 1990s, a series of disastrous Australian property investments set the family net worth to negative. It took some years to recoup what was a multi-million loss."

NB. Accessed via Google.

[troyvdh]

appreciated...could you elaborate...I have no doubt...blah blah.... do not subscribe to NBR....was the 'item' really released today ?...cheers...

[troyvdh]

ooops sorry....sorry again... am wrong.....no question....However...can we not all reflect on decisions made in the past....e.g ...I distinctly remember meeting and talking to a certain M Hawes...in the 80's who ..to the best of my memory was a fan of RJI....Oh how so times change.....

[Aaron]

As I have stated in the past ...PFI has been a superb investment for me ...Can anyone highlight where a certain P Masfen has made a loss on an investment...he holds 4m+ ...2 % of PFI....as an aside have a look at the SP performance compared with KIP...

Don't know about following the smart money. I stayed in Provenco because the Todd family had a significant investment in it, in spite of the small shareholder association describing it as a pig with too much debt.

Anyway back to PFI. The goodwill for anyone interested is the difference between 1/ the fair value of the PFI shares issued to DPF shareholders and 2/ the fair value of DPF assets and liabilities. Or in other words a $9.8mill premium for DPF assets. I guess DPF shareholders will be happier than PFI shareholders about that.

[Billy Boy]

Why November - December?
The volumes on the buy side begin to rise going into the Dec - Mar Divvy's.
May -june is showing a down side, (Normal)
Although I might have to pull my thoughts as I hear the US FED could well
start to decrease their QE's starting Sept.
It might not have too much of a an influence on the LPT's but the markets
as a whole... well??
The bank tells me , interest rates could start to rise cum march.
I wish the LPT's would drop this Bl00dy DRP thing. It dilutes the overall holding
and of course our holding.
Whats your thoughts looking forward Fungus?
BB:)

[fungus pudding]

The volumes on the buy side begin to rise going into the Dec - Mar Divvy's.
May -june is showing a down side, (Normal)
Although I might have to pull my thoughts as I hear the US FED could well
start to decrease their QE's starting Sept.
It might not have too much of a an influence on the LPT's but the markets
as a whole... well??
The bank tells me , interest rates could start to rise cum march.
I wish the LPT's would drop this Bl00dy DRP thing. It dilutes the overall holding
and of course our holding.
Whats your thoughts looking forward Fungus?
BB:)

Not sure. Although sometime interest rates will rise, a fair way off yet, but could have a big effect on LPTs. Interest rates and commodities are opposite ends of a see-saw of course, so property values will weaken, share market will weaken; this could mean a double whammy for LPTs - as happened to property companies in the 87 crash. For all that it won't be severe enough to worry me. Just keep stacking up the income, is my motto.

[Billy Boy]

DNZ are falling outta favour 180 to 164 over six months.
Did I hear Paul Duffy was moving on ???
Or is there a good reason for the SP Drop
BB:)

[fungus pudding]

DNZ are falling outta favour 180 to 164 over six months.
Did I hear Paul Duffy was moving on ???
Or is there a good reason for the SP Drop
BB:)

Yes, he is leaving in near future - doubt that that is the whole reason for the drop though.

[777]

DNZ are falling outta favour 180 to 164 over six months.
Did I hear Paul Duffy was moving on ???
Or is there a good reason for the SP Drop
BB:)

If you look at the graphs/charts of most of the LPTs they are similar. They all topped a few months ago and have eased back a bit. DNZ does not stand out as being any different to the others.

I bought DNZ at 1.54 in mid August last year.

[Billy Boy]

If you look at the graphs/charts of most of the LPTs they are similar. They all topped a few months ago and have eased back a bit. DNZ does not stand out as being any different to the others.

I bought DNZ at 1.54 in mid August last year.
Yes they are on a %% basis. Its the discount to NTA that needs to be watched.
dnz is (NTA 161.86... SP 164)
on the other hand
GMT NTA 96.84.... SP105.5....
Take those figures as a guide for all the LPT's and do the "fundies"
taking good notice of the leverage...
The other angle I hav'ent got head round has been the Cap Raising
by ARG & DNZ etc. I gotta work all that in yet.
PFI merger....???
Would appear some of the LPT's are changing their model slowly.
BB:)
ps hand on to your DNZ's. but dont pickup on the DRP.
Put the money aside and buy in later. ;)

[Aaron]

Can someone enlighten me on the most significant macro trends which impact on the SP's of these property trusts?
Are we talking OCR? property prices? housing demand/supply? general equity market sentiment?... From a macro perspective what are the tail winds people hope to jump on board when investing in these property trusts?
Cheers.
As FP has already stated if interest rates start to rise current LTP yields look less attractive compare to bonds and they have up to about 40% debt so interest costs would increase. Also as interest rates climb I am guessing the discount rate valuing the income stream also rises reducing the value of the buildings and therefore lowering the NTA. All these things combined could be a real whammy for LPT prices if interest rates start to rise. That said I don't see rates rising any time soon, as the economic cycle "might be different this time".

Also I reckon the internet has done away with music shops and it might do away with book shops and my kids are comfortable buying clothes from the UK online so there might not be the same pressure from tenants. It is surprising how quick the internet is doing away with traditional snail mail. The GPT property trust review mentions the internet and the potential effects it might have on property.

Just my views, so I wouldn't rely on them too much. I do hold LPTs/Property Companys and am hoping for a crash to buy more at better yields. I am probably way to pessimistic but I don't see a lot of growth in rents due to, internet, ongoing world slump and slight possibility of interest rates rises. Have a look on the five year summaries. PFI and ARG rental income declining GMT increasing. I haven't done the research but drop in rents could be because of sale of property to reduce debt. To be honest I will have to sit down and work it out myself.

[Billy Boy]

Your last sentence says it all. Read back on this thread, notice how perceptions slowly change.
At the moment it's the divvy return that is attractive 5% - 6% and no tax (PIE). where else can
you get that return for risk factor.
The little shops still have a place, it's just their "spots" have changed.
Someone (I think it was Fungus) said a ways back ,
"LPT's are things you never sell just manage the Coy's within you portfolio".
I have heaps, and they have served me well. I have never lost or made
money on them coz I have never sold, only rearranged the portfolio from
time to time. The book value has gone up heaps. Buy on the lows... rearrange
on the highs.

A Tip 4u.
Go to directbroking super charts and do a percentage chart.
Run nzx50 with Say, GMT... do a yearly chart.
Speaks volumes.
Cheers BB:)

[macduffy]

This may be old news but an Aussie media source reckons that CBA is looking to divest its property interests. Isn't the KIP management contract held by a CBA subsidiary?

[macduffy]

Hi Karen 1.

You need to clear some space to receive private messages. Inbox apparently full!

Cheers

[karen1]

Hi macduffy, try now, thanks

[Sideshow Bob]

Vital smashed today, down 11.8%, on the back of the back of a rights issue. Why such a negative reaction??



Vital announces pro rata renounceable rights issue

9:56am, 25 Jun 2013 | RIGHT


25 June 2013

Vital announces pro rata renounceable rights issue

Vital Healthcare Management Limited (the 'Manager'), the manager of Vital Healthcare Property Trust ('Vital'), today announced that Vital intends to undertake a pro rata renounceable offer of new units to existing unitholders, to open in late July (the 'Offer').

As a consequence, the Board of the Manager has decided to temporarily suspend Vital's Distribution Reinvestment Plan ('Plan') and will not proceed with the issue of units under that Plan in respect of the third quarter distribution. Unitholders who had elected to participate in the Plan will, therefore, be paid the third quarter distribution in cash, less any applicable withholding tax

The Board expects to finalise and announce the pricing, terms and size of the Offer in early July.

No money is currently being sought and no applications for units will be accepted or money received unless the subscriber has received a copy of the simplified disclosure prospectus for the Offer made available by the ManagerA person should consider that prospectus, once available, in deciding whether to acquire units

[troyvdh]

Dear 777...I acknowledge that graphs and charts are quite similar....

Have you by any chance observed the "depth" i.e buyers and sellers.....que.....of the companies highlighted....

OK Im biased....hold over 10k PFI....am probably guilty of ramping....cheers anyway

[Aaron]

Tried to sell my ARG holding this morning but its in a trading halt. Any idea what this might be for? Stuck now so hope it's good news.

[Aaron]

Better news than a credit downgrade. Converting debt to equity makes ARG more secure in my mind if the financial markets run into more trouble.
Lost my buyers at 96 and 97cents tho. If I had an intelligent and thoughtful approach to investment I would know whether to sell or hang on for the rights issue. Investing based on a whim or a hope or a prayer means I will procrastinate for a bit hoping the buyers come back. My whim re rising interest rates and lowering share prices for property companies obviously not as solid as when I awoke this morning.

A quick look at the price chart may have pushed me in the sell direction. All you TAers out there correct me if I am wrong but haven't some of the property companies sent out sell signals lately. Still looking for guidance on interest rates on the bond thread but if TA is to be believed then the 200day MA crossing the daily price line at 96cents was a sign was it not. We may not know why(I do interest rate fears) but the price is trending down.

[Aaron]

Oh well current yield based on cost price for ARG still way better than cash in the bank. if I sell now that's 5.2% less than I could have had this morning if the bloody trading halt hadn't kicked in. Looking like a long term hold with a share price heading down. Note to self... time in the market not market timing. Wish I could believe that.

[Aaron]

Here's a good link http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/ocr/ as you can see the OCR has been stable at 2.5% since March 2011.
Great page thanks. Pity is doesn't go back as far as the 80's. I suspect we are following Japan and will have low interest rates for decades. that makes ARG's yield attractive. But I am reading headlines that say interest rates are rising in spite of the central banks keeping their OCR's near zero. Inflation/Deflation? Maybe cash is the option, if we get inflation interest rates rise equities go down(buying opportunity) if we get deflation prices come down and cash gets more valuable. I will conveniently ignore the likelihood of high inflation and low interest rates and the fact cash is usually trash long term. I also read that margin lending in the US is back to its 2008 highs. Is anything different from 2007-2009 except we have a government guarantee they will protect us all. So much for a free market. Next time let the risk takers fail and give us conservative people a chance at some real bargains.

[Snow Leopard]

This ARG who are doing this Rights Issue, this is the same ARG who six months ago did a placement and SPP?
Or am I just getting them confused with ever other company in the NZX who has wanted more of my money recently?

Wallet has lost a lot of weight recently.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[RRR]

I will participate in the rights issue of ARG and VHP! To be fair, ARG has bought 2 more properties for about 90million.

[RRR]

PCT has a large exposure to Wellington I think. GMT has no exposure to Wellington and has only a few properties in Christchurch. ARG recently bought 2 sizeable properties in Wellington and no wonder ARG share price dropped a bit on Friday!

NZ LPT's are still more attractive than Australian REIT's I think - so not interested in them. I will continue to add GMT on a regular basis, especially on price dips.

Disc- own GMT, ARG, VHP

[simla]

As one who lives in Wellington, I can assure you the media beat this all up beautifully. Acquaintances of mine continue to live on the fault lines. Others stayed at work on Friday as it was quite safe, and others cheerfully went out for dinner in town that night. If you search the internet, you will discover that Wellington is not actually expecting "the big one" any time this lifetime, and neither did it just have it. And it has now been demonstrated - twice in a month - that the buildings here are indeed designed to last. KIP owns the Majestic Centre in Wellington, for example, and I would be perfectly staggered if it underwent any real damage from an earthquake - and it was in fact fine, twice now. (The Earthquake Commision have that as their address!) I own KIP and am not even marginally concerned. Just my opinion, of course.

If you doubt me, the earthquake was at 2.31 on Friday, but you'll find I made a post at 2.36. I guess I wasn't screaming too much then!

[macduffy]

Not disagreeing with any of that but it should be noted that the Majestic Centre, a modern first grade building, has recently undergone earthquake strengthening - in fact this is still ongoing with at least one floor still vacant.

[troyvdh]

sorry guys I should know but I don't...re PFI...why are there multiple mini trades occurring.....sorry...what is the advantage/benefit/purpose.....

Disc...bought 30000 in recent days...

[RRR]

Hi Troy

Several possibilities I suspect:
1. Large seller masquerading as several sellers of small parcels
2. Large buyer masquerading as several buyers of small parcels
3. Large buyer or seller doing 1 &2 so not to disturb the market price too much
4. Share price manipulation

This sort of thing happens when liquidity is an issue and when a big buyer/seller wants to buy/sell large amounts!

Just a wild guess on a Friday evening!

BTW - interest rates are going to go up and LPT's could be adversely affected by it.

[fungus pudding]

Hi Troy

Several possibilities I suspect:
1. Large seller masquerading as several sellers of small parcels
2. Large buyer masquerading as several buyers of small parcels
3. Large buyer or seller doing 1 &2 so not to disturb the market price too much
4. Share price manipulation

This sort of thing happens when liquidity is an issue and when a big buyer/seller wants to buy/sell large amounts!

Just a wild guess on a Friday evening!

BTW - interest rates are going to go up and LPT's could be adversely affected by it.

Undoubtedly they will be, as will shares generally, so a double whammy for LPTs, although it could be a fair way off. The question is, by how much, or has it already been factored in ? Mine seem to have dropped quite a lot over last week or two. (Hold ARG, DNZ, GMT, PCT, KIP, PFI)

[Aaron]

I can't help think the interest rates have bottomed but they may stay down for quite some time as inflation doesn't seem to be taking hold yet except in financial and property markets.
I hedged my bets by selling some of my LPTs in July but my ability to see into the future is pretty bad. Herald article this morning talks about rising interest rates. As interest rates go up LPT prices go down to match the returns in fixed interest. The reserve bank reckons next year for any rises so I am going against a central bank again and losing again.
Any views on the future of interest rates? or LPT/Property company prices and yields for that matter.

[voltage]

Have funds in a number of LPTs should I be reducing these and changing to growth shares since interest rates will be on the rise as mentioned above

[fungus pudding]

I can't help think the interest rates have bottomed but they may stay down for quite some time as inflation doesn't seem to be taking hold yet except in financial and property markets.
I hedged my bets by selling some of my LPTs in July but my ability to see into the future is pretty bad. Herald article this morning talks about rising interest rates. As interest rates go up LPT prices go down to match the returns in fixed interest. The reserve bank reckons next year for any rises so I am going against a central bank again and losing again.
Any views on the future of interest rates? or LPT/Property company prices and yields for that matter.

No doubt that they will drop a bit with interest rate rises, but it could be quite temporary, because somewhere down the line we are in for a burst of inflation, and nothing provides a better hedge against inflation that commercial real estate. I'll hold onto mine, partly because I don't know anything about other shares, so have no idea what to do with the money.

[Aaron]

Have funds in a number of LPTs should I be reducing these and changing to growth shares since interest rates will be on the rise as mentioned above

Don't do it because of anything I said, I am a very unsuccessful investor my comments should be taken lightly. If you bought a while ago who cares what the prices do. FP makes a good argument, your yield on the cost price of the investment will still be good and the only reason interest rates go up is to compensate for inflation which will also be eroding the debt the LPTs hold and property is generally a good hedge against inflation. Who knows the western world could be following japan who have had near zero interest rates for 20 odd years I think and prices may go no where. No one can see the future. Me selling some is just me speculating on price movements rather than investing. Now that I have taken the punt it is in my interest to talk down the LPTs so I don't continue to look stupid.

[fungus pudding]

Don't do it because of anything I said, I am a very unsuccessful investor my comments should be taken lightly. If you bought a while ago who cares what the prices do. FP makes a good argument, your yield on the cost price of the investment will still be good and the only reason interest rates go up is to compensate for inflation which will also be eroding the debt the LPTs hold and property is generally a good hedge against inflation. Who knows the western world could be following japan who have had near zero interest rates for 20 odd years I think and prices may go no where. No one can see the future. Me selling some is just me speculating on price movements rather than investing. Now that I have taken the punt it is in my interest to talk down the LPTs so I don't continue to look stupid.

I like your comments. Not everyone admits to being a hopeless investor, but I put myself in that class. :( The only thing I've ever done any good with is real estate, and specifically commercial real estate. So I bought a bunch of LPTs which I just think of as another building. Value doesn't matter (within reason) as long as the income rolls in. Obviously over a reasonable period values and rents should follow inflation, but it's never a straight line. I'll review it in another 15 years or so, assuming I'm still on the planet.

[Aaron]

There you go the Fed taper is off $85USBillion extra available every month for those lucky enough to be able to issue bonds to the Federal Reserve. Holding LPTs look way better than cash now. I wonder if it will somehow destroy the $NZ as well. What to do? Maybe I should be all in, it might be hard to find anything to invest in soon at a reasonable price(damn inflation).
The NZX market cap is $79NZBillion a wall street bank with access to the Fed funds could own the entire NZX with one months stimulus. I wonder if the world would be better off. Maybe some trickle down for the plebs from all this money. I still think they would get better results posting all the US citizens man, woman and child a cheque for $270 each month.
US Population 314,000,000. QE per month $85,000,000,000. People might realise how farcical the US monetary system is becoming and how unfair it is that only a small portion of the population can get their hands on such cheap credit.

[macduffy]

Yes, scary, isn't it? The US markets showed us again today how dependent they are on continuous QE injections. Any hint of having to go cold turkey and down they go!

The question is: How dependent is the "real" economy on all this "easing"?

[Aaron]

I wonder how much/if any QE money ends up owning Meridian.

[Newman]

DNZ are falling outta favour 180 to 164 over six months.
Did I hear Paul Duffy was moving on ???
Or is there a good reason for the SP Drop
BB:)

Your prediction was quite reliable. DNZ closed at $1.56 today.

[Billy Boy]

Your prediction was quite reliable. DNZ closed at $1.56 today.
Yea and with a NTA of 161 cents. !!

When did Paul Duffy start selling down his holding ??
Did'nt we see the same thing with NZX ??
And of course there was ......
Hmmmmm...

2014 into 2015 will be interesting as interest rates start rising.
The LPT's will have to keep up as a divvy stock.
And dont 4get the US Fed's start tapering from the 4th quarter onwards. (probably)
Could see further downward drift starting 1st quarter next year.
An indicator will be their 'state of leveraging' and on coming valuations.
GMT is a good watch.
All the above of course is just my gut feelings.


Dis... hold most lpt's. Dropped heaps of DNZ @ mid 170's odd.
cheers BB:)

[troyvdh]

I have about 20 % of my holdings in PFI...always have.I hear folk (Mr Gaynor et al) talk about ditching income companies...like those mentioned in this thread plus probably energy companies and favouring growth companies.
My question is is it that simple...surely property companies are experiencing valuation gains as well as divs.Im assuming that commercial property be it industrial or retail valuations or what ever are experiencing gains but not perhaps as spectacular as residential but quite stellar none the less.cheers

sorry about the double take

[Billy Boy]

I have about 20 % of my holdings in PFI...always have.I hear folk (Mr Gaynor et al) talk about ditching income companies...like those mentioned in this thread plus probably energy companies and favouring growth companies.
My question is is it that simple...surely property companies are experiencing valuation gains as well as divs.Im assuming that commercial property be it industrial or retail valuations or what ever are experiencing gains but not perhaps as spectacular as residential but quite stellar none the less.cheers

sorry about the double take
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11192048

BB

[troyvdh]

This post has been very quiet....casting my eye over the charts of PFI and KIP...it looks like (to me )..that they are on the "launch pad"... Its my understanding that most folk say property companies decline when interest rates go up.......is that true....

[percy]

This post has been very quiet....casting my eye over the charts of PFI and KIP...it looks like (to me )..that they are on the "launch pad"... Its my understanding that most folk say property companies decline when interest rates go up.......is that true....

I would be a little careful of KIP with their large number of struggling retail tenants.

[Sideshow Bob]

Was actually reading KIP's AR last night, and retail accounts for 67% of their income! office the rest.

In terms of tenants, and gross income, their biggest retail tenants and overall % of their income are:

2. Farmers 3.7%
3. Progressive 3.1 %
9. Foodstuffs 1.9%
10. Just Group 1.7%
11. Hallensteins/Glassons 1.5%
12. Kmart 1.5%
13. Cotton On 1.4%
14. The Warehouse 1.3%
16. Whitcoulls 1.1%
17. Valley Girl 0.9%
19. Pascoes 0.8%
20. Hannah's 0.7%

Strugglers? Whitcoulls. Dick Smith would be in there, but not top 20. Kmart wouldn't be stellar?? Aside from that not many that wouldn't pay the rent.

[macduffy]

That's true, Bob, but mall rentals have a "turnover value" element to them as well as the base rent. That, plus pressure from tenants who are feeling the pinch will act to depress KIP's profits, IMO.

[percy]

Was actually reading KIP's AR last night, and retail accounts for 67% of their income! office the rest.

In terms of tenants, and gross income, their biggest retail tenants and overall % of their income are:

2. Farmers 3.7%
3. Progressive 3.1 %
9. Foodstuffs 1.9%
10. Just Group 1.7%
11. Hallensteins/Glassons 1.5%
12. Kmart 1.5%
13. Cotton On 1.4%
14. The Warehouse 1.3%
16. Whitcoulls 1.1%
17. Valley Girl 0.9%
19. Pascoes 0.8%
20. Hannah's 0.7%

Strugglers? Whitcoulls. Dick Smith would be in there, but not top 20. Kmart wouldn't be stellar?? Aside from that not many that wouldn't pay the rent.

A couple I can't comment on,but I count 8 strugglers.!
No I am not going to name them!!!
And 3 would be paying very modest rents.Those would be Progressive,Foodstuffs and The Warehouse.
So that would leave one tenant [and I have my doubts] whose rent they could increase.
I very much doubt Dick Smith would be looking for more Mall locations.Noel Leemings could not make Mall stores pay.

[fungus pudding]

This post has been very quiet....casting my eye over the charts of PFI and KIP...it looks like (to me )..that they are on the "launch pad"... Its my understanding that most folk say property companies decline when interest rates go up.......is that true....

Commodities, including real estate, and interest rates are the opposite ends of a see-saw. That doesn't mean they will drop in value - but it will slow the rise which should flow from increasing replacement costs. Or to put it another way - who knows?:confused:

[Jaa]

Was actually reading KIP's AR last night, and retail accounts for 67% of their income! office the rest.

In terms of tenants, and gross income, their biggest retail tenants and overall % of their income are:

2. Farmers 3.7%
3. Progressive 3.1 %
9. Foodstuffs 1.9%
10. Just Group 1.7%
11. Hallensteins/Glassons 1.5%
12. Kmart 1.5%
13. Cotton On 1.4%
14. The Warehouse 1.3%
16. Whitcoulls 1.1%
17. Valley Girl 0.9%
19. Pascoes 0.8%
20. Hannah's 0.7%

Strugglers? Whitcoulls. Dick Smith would be in there, but not top 20. Kmart wouldn't be stellar?? Aside from that not many that wouldn't pay the rent.

Hannah's is definitely struggling, haven't made a profit for a number of years. Hellaby along with dividends from their profitable divisions have resorted to paying their shareholders in Hannahs/Number 1 Shoe Warehouse discounts!! I'm not complaining, better than nothing!

The clothing/shoe retailers, Just Group, Hallensteins/Glassons, Cotton On, Valley Girl and Hannah's share of the rent seems way out of proportion for the square metres they take up. It makes the mall retail model look a bit sickly.

[RRR]

LPT's have outperformed the market in the last few months! Most investors (including myself) were expecting the opposite since the interest rates are going up. Internally managed LPT's appeal to me.

Disclosure - hold ARG, sold GMT, VHP

[troyvdh]

Indeed fungus...who knows..how ever I remain confident that my investment in PFI will despite convention flourish..as is being displayed in its SP...cheers

Disc...27000 PFI

[Beagle]

REIT's very strong in the last few days, anyone got a theory why ? Low interest rates here to stay for the foreseeable future making REIT's a safe haven for dividend hounds ?

[Snapper]

REIT's very strong in the last few days, anyone got a theory why ? Low interest rates here to stay for the foreseeable future making REIT's a safe haven for dividend hounds ?

Maybe they can sniff a Labour victory, always makes for a buoyant Wellington market!

[fungus pudding]

Maybe they can sniff a Labour victory, always makes for a buoyant Wellington market!

I have shares in most LPTs and very few of them have significant holdings in Wellington, so don't see that as a reason. I think it's just a reflection of the realisation that interest rates are stable and will be for some time.

[Billy Boy]

will be interested to see what the DNZ share price will get to once ex ceo paul duffy finishes selling his shares, I am guessing still a few million to go
You may well be right there...
NTA $1.69 & not much forward growth being forcast.
I hold a few still, but sold down when share price was pushed $1.80 and a bit.
Still holding that cash but as things stand at TPIT, there are better buys on the
LPT lineup me thinks.
BB

[Aaron]

Interesting to see the internet affecting retail. GPT in Australia also made note of this a year or so ago. Not the end of the world but not positive for the property companies and trusts.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11339207

[Billy Boy]

Not the end of the world but not positive for the property companies and trusts.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11339207
That was a very interesting VID.
Internet buying is beginning to lose it's appeal, as items are arriving broken,
Not arriving at all, similar Item instead, wrong colour etc. etc..
The arguments that then arise ...... and the vender has the money.
I know some on-line retailers make good, but others don't.
eg. I bought a log splitter recently.
Went to our local retailer with my requirements. they were Blaa Blaa.....
He ring me back about 3 hours later. "I can get three makes for you,
Prices range from $$$ to $$$ and the best one IMO is this one because
Blaa Blaa"..... Order it say's me.
Two days later it arrives at my house. I check it out and go and pay for it.
My friend in Wanaka bought a similar item (well advertised) and the welds
broke after about 2 hours use.
I,m splitting wood and he is still arguing
Draw your own conclusions Kids !!!
BB

[fungus pudding]

That was a very interesting VID.
Internet buying is beginning to lose it's appeal, as items are arriving broken,
Not arriving at all, similar Item instead, wrong colour etc. etc..
The arguments that then arise ...... and the vender has the money.
I know some on-line retailers make good, but others don't.
eg. I bought a log splitter recently.
Went to our local retailer with my requirements. they were Blaa Blaa.....
He ring me back about 3 hours later. "I can get three makes for you,
Prices range from $$$ to $$$ and the best one IMO is this one because
Blaa Blaa"..... Order it say's me.
Two days later it arrives at my house. I check it out and go and pay for it.
My friend in Wanaka bought a similar item (well advertised) and the welds
broke after about 2 hours use.
I,m splitting wood and he is still arguing
Draw your own conclusions Kids !!!
BB

My conclusion: It's colder in Wanaka than wherever you live.

[Billy Boy]

My conclusion: It's colder in Wanaka than wherever you live.

:p
Bias be thee ???

BB;)

[fungus pudding]

:p
Bias be thee ???

BB;)

Not at all. It's just that wood splitters don't pack-up in the tropics. :t_up:

[Beagle]

You can easily avoid retail altogether with GMT which is my preferred REIT.

[fungus pudding]

You can easily avoid retail altogether with GMT which is my preferred REIT.

Then there's PFI, specialising in industrial and PCT, for office buildings.

[fungus pudding]

Anyone read the portfolio update on KPG? It quotes revaluation gain of 7%. Later in report it states new valuation will add 14cps to NTA.
By my reckoning it should add around 8.5cps. The old NTA was around 120cps from memory, and 7% of 120 is 8.4

It's on the investor centre page of their website.

https://kp.co.nz/investor-centre/

[Snow Leopard]

Anyone read the portfolio update on KPG? It quotes revaluation gain of 7%. Later in report it states new valuation will add 14cps to NTA.
By my reckoning it should add around 8.5cps. The old NTA was around 120cps from memory, and 7% of 120 is 8.4

It's on the investor centre page of their website.

https://kp.co.nz/investor-centre/

They quote a change in the Net Value of their Property of approximately $177.5M.
All other things being equal then there will be a change in the Net Value of their Tangible Assets of $177.5M (or nearly 14cps on 1,276M shares).

Net Tangible Assets = Tangible Assets (mostly property) - Liabilities (mostly debt)

So we have the lever and the fulcrum to do some leveraging.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[fungus pudding]

They quote a change in the Net Value of their Property of approximately $177.5M.
All other things being equal then there will be a change in the Net Value of their Tangible Assets of $177.5M (or nearly 14cps on 1,276M shares).

Net Tangible Assets = Tangible Assets (mostly property) - Liabilities (mostly debt)

So we have the lever and the fulcrum to do some leveraging.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah, but they also quote the net value has increased by 7% ? - first paragraph.

[Snow Leopard]

Yeah, but they also quote the net value has increased by 7% ? - first paragraph.

Investment Properties were valued at $2,390M at HY a $175M increase on that is what percentage ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

PFI is still PFI but the other five codes are no longer current - what are they now?

Go...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[fungus pudding]

PFI is still PFI but the other five codes are no longer current - what are they now?

Go...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


APT is now Precinct PCT. KIP now Kiwi Prop Group KPG. ING Argosy. Arg. CHP now Vital VHP MGP now Goodman GMT

Do you need my account number, or would you prefer postal address for prize?

[fungus pudding]

Investment Properties were valued at $2,390M at HY a $175M increase on that is what percentage ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Thanks PT

The 7% is obviously the valuation increase - not 7% net increase, which is how I read it.

[Beagle]

Let's play a game...which of these LPT's haven't revalued their properties and advised the market of substantial valuation increase yet ?

[fungus pudding]

Let's play a game...which of these LPT's haven't revalued their properties and advised the market of substantial valuation increase yet ?

Argosy and Stride? How many guesses am I. allowed?:confused:

[Beagle]

Argosy and Stride? How many guesses am I. allowed?:confused:

Well done you only needed one :) Just highlighting in this ultra low interest rate environment that the valuation cap rates have come down and the big increases in NTA we've seen for some companies like GMT and KPG are yet to be seen in some shares.

[NZSilver]

Well done you only needed one :) Just highlighting in this ultra low interest rate environment that the valuation cap rates have come down and the big increases in NTA we've seen for some companies like GMT and KPG are yet to be seen in some shares. good value then if they havnt revised values?

[Aaron]

good value then if they havnt revised values?

Good value? Are the increases in NTA due to increases in net rental income or is it just because people are prepared to accept lower yields.

Low interest rates will also help increase net rental income I suppose. Are we Japan? will interest rates be minimal for decades?

[fungus pudding]

Good value? Are the increases in NTA due to increases in net rental income or is it just because people are prepared to accept lower yields.



It will be a bit of both. Market yields are always linked to interest rates. Where interest rates go from here is anyone's guess. That's the risk with real estate investing or even just buying a home. The best time to buy is when interest rates are high. (e.g. It's better to pay 10% on 100k than 5% on 200k)

[Beagle]

good value then if they havnt revised values?

A lot of the REIT yields in Australia are now in the 4% zone. Some here are still just over 5% and are PIE's so taxpayers pay no further tax. GMT and ARG are approx. 5.1% fully tax paid which for personal investors on a 33% tax rate equates to a gross yield of 7.6% which when viewed in the context of the fact that ARG haven't revalued yet, (GMT has with a 10 cent uplift in NTA) is a pretty solid return in an ultra low interest rate environment which looks like staying that way for the foreseeable future.

Further, REIT's aren't subject to the Reserve Bank's open bank resolution whereas term deposits and all money invested with banks are.

I believe a meaningful portion of the massive amount of term deposit money rolling over this year will find a home with safe REIT's when retired folk are offered a pathetic two point something percent term deposit rate to reinvest. Conservative retired investors will be compelled to take on board some risk if they want to continue to live well and not eat into their capital.

I think we see interest rates low for a very, very long time as its really the only way for central banks to get us out of the seemingly incredibly long lasting effects of the GFC so I see further cap rate decreases next year further boosting the NTA of this sector.

Disc bought more ARG last week and hold GMT too.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11609164 MUST READ - VERY Interesting article about Stride's new so called "mega mall" (Disc don't own Stride)

[Corporate]

Hi all

Does anyone have a complete list of REIT's in NZ?

Thanks

[Joshuatree]

Ive just sighted Craigs lengthy article headlined
When The Yield Compression Stops....
Companies featured
KPT
ARG
GMT
PCT
PFI
STR
VHP
No buy reccos ,all holds., Sector now trades at an average of 4.7% versus 7% 5 years ago.Outperforming NZX50 primarily because yield compression has driven over half of sector returns over the last 5 years.At current vales investors unlikely to achieve returns above 5.7-7.7% p.a. from the sector and even that would require future dist growth above what has been achieved historically"
At current vales we do not see compelling value in the sector"

A hell of a lot more data and article there (30 pages) and covers 10 Aussie Reits (but not my TIX) and suggests better value there.but thats it for now. Thoughts, rebuttals?. Looks like its too late to buy NZ prop stocks for some time...

[Lewylewylewy]

I think some, but not all are PIEs?

[troyvdh]

Dear Josh...my thoughts...You may have gleaned what you believe to be some significant information from a source....but to say "looks like its too late to buy NZ prop stocks for some time"...when other commentators are proclaiming the exact opposite...I mean...yields of 4.7....is it it not true that Japanese housewives and Belgian dentists are paying to have the money deposited...in banks.....I just don't get it...however..I have not read the Craigs article...perhaps you could make it available..cheers

[fungus pudding]

I think some, but not all are PIEs?

Augusta is not a PIE,

[GTM 3442]

Augusta is not a PIE,

Are they any good? Non-PIE is good for me.

Seriously, I have some PFI and I am looking for something complementary in the non-industrial space. But preferably avoiding too much emphasis on "office".

Any suggestions gratefully received

[Beagle]

Not much to add to post #837 other than investors need to carefully discriminate between what is safe yield and risky yield. Recent examples for yield hunters with sharp price movements of PGW, HLG and AIR serve as a stark reminder of the contrasting risk associated with some higher yield stocks compared to the relatively stable SP's of many REIT's. I suggest 5% being a PIE for GMT and ARG for example for investors is effectively 7.5% for taxpayers on a 33% tax rate and that compares very favourably with the 2.5% they'll be offered on term deposit later this year. Yes yield compression but ultra low interest rates for the foreseeable future is the only possible successful path of the GFC so I see no change to ultra low interest rates for as far as the eye can see.

GTM 3442 KIP might be the right stock for you.

[Joshuatree]

Dear Josh...my thoughts...You may have gleaned what you believe to be some significant information from a source....but to say "looks like its too late to buy NZ prop stocks for some time"...when other commentators are proclaiming the exact opposite...I mean...yields of 4.7....is it it not true that Japanese housewives and Belgian dentists are paying to have the money deposited...in banks.....I just don't get it...however..I have not read the Craigs article...perhaps you could make it available..cheers

Have released whole client articles before and been pulled up for it so sorry no, it is worth getting your hands on a copy if you are a Craigs client; very thorough article

[fungus pudding]

Have released whole client articles before and been pulled up for it so sorry no, it is worth getting your hands on a copy if you are a Craigs client; very thorough article

Well pickle me - are they going to boil you in cooking oil or something?

[fungus pudding]

Are they any good? Non-PIE is good for me.

Seriously, I have some PFI and I am looking for something complementary in the non-industrial space. But preferably avoiding too much emphasis on "office".

Any suggestions gratefully received

Augusta is a mix of properties plus management contracts if I remember correctly.
Share price has never done much, but who knows about tomorrow?
DNZ provide a good mix of all sorts, as do ARG. KPG for retail. GMT for developments. PFI - industrial and PCT - office. That's pretty general and probably only PCT don't stray off their chosen path.

[Joshuatree]

Well pickle me - are they going to boil you in cooking oil or something? Not only them but i have been warned by Admin here and fair enough too.

[GTM 3442]

Augusta is a mix of properties plus management contracts if I remember correctly.
Share price has never done much, but who knows about tomorrow?
DNZ provide a good mix of all sorts, as do ARG. KPG for retail. GMT for developments. PFI - industrial and PCT - office. That's pretty general and probably only PCT don't stray off their chosen path.

Thank you very much, Ms Pudding.

[fungus pudding]

Thank you very much, Ms Pudding.

Mr. I can assure you - I've looked.

[GTM 3442]

Mr. I can assure you - I've looked.

I haven't had the pleasure, so I tossed a coin.

So, thank you, Mister Pudding.

[fungus pudding]

I haven't had the pleasure, so I tossed a coin.

So, thank you, Mister Pudding.

Aw shucks! ;) Call me Fungus.

[fungus pudding]

Good to see GMT joining KPG in reporting record profits for year ending 2016. :t_up:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4153510

[heisenberg]

I'm looking at gaining some long term exposure to the property market through one or two of these trusts. Thus far I'm liking the look of Stride and GMT, others seem to be a touch overvalued at present

[Joshuatree]

For what its worth. FP and others with their fingers on the pulse may have more down to earth research.


Ive just sighted Craigs lengthy article headlined
When The Yield Compression Stops....
Companies featured
KPT
ARG
GMT
PCT
PFI
STR
VHP
No buy reccos ,all holds., Sector now trades at an average of 4.7% versus 7% 5 years ago.Outperforming NZX50 primarily because yield compression has driven over half of sector returns over the last 5 years.At current vales investors unlikely to achieve returns above 5.7-7.7% p.a. from the sector and even that would require future dist growth above what has been achieved historically"
At current vales we do not see compelling value in the sector"

A hell of a lot more data and article there (30 pages) and covers 10 Aussie Reits (but not my TIX) and suggests better value there.but thats it for now. Thoughts, rebuttals?. Looks like its too late to buy NZ prop stocks for some time...

[777]

The following is not so good for STR.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/80360674/Fears-for-the-future-of-Wellingtons-Johnsonville-mall-as-retailers-pack-up

[fungus pudding]

For what its worth. FP and others with their fingers on the pulse may have more down to earth research.

That pretty much it. All that could be said of direct ownership of commercial and industrial properties. They are for long term holders who want reliable income and growth overtime, which comes as building costs rise. Almost all commodities will rise when interest rates fall and fall when interest rates rise. I still think they are an extremely secure investment and rental reviews will see a bit of an increase here and there.

[Lewylewylewy]

The following is not so good for STR.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/80360674/Fears-for-the-future-of-Wellingtons-Johnsonville-mall-as-retailers-pack-up

Stuff... totally unreliable. I don't know if what was written is valid or not... the photo, however... total bs... that side of the food court is small and rarely used. The other side is where all the shops are and that's where people sit. It's busy every day I go in there, which is often.

[heisenberg]

They are for long term holders who want reliable income and growth overtime, which comes as building costs rise. Almost all commodities will rise when interest rates fall and fall when interest rates rise. I still think they are an extremely secure investment and rental reviews will see a bit of an increase here and there.

Well put. This is why I would like to add one to my portfolio, however having a hard time choosing between VHP and STR. Guidance would be appreciated!

[Snow Leopard]

Well put. This is why I would like to add one to my portfolio, however having a hard time choosing between VHP and STR. Guidance would be appreciated!

Flip a coin

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[heisenberg]

Flip a coin

I'll flip my CGVI coin
VHP wins

[777]

Stuff... totally unreliable. I don't know if what was written is valid or not... the photo, however... total bs... that side of the food court is small and rarely used. The other side is where all the shops are and that's where people sit. It's busy every day I go in there, which is often.


So are all the comments below the article incorrect as well?

[Lewylewylewy]

No idea about the comments... just sharing my view on the photo.

VHP is a big winner IMO. Healthcare industry has a lot of benefits, not to mention the average contract length which is like 18 years or something. look at the SP since IPO... good bet.

[Toasty]

No idea about the comments... just sharing my view on the photo.

VHP is a big winner IMO. Healthcare industry has a lot of benefits, not to mention the average contract length which is like 18 years or something. look at the SP since IPO... good bet.

I will throw my support in for VHP. Been in here since 2005. Just good steady progress and as Lewy mentioned their weighted average lease term is well ahead of industry standards. They also seem to be constantly active in securing new development sites and redeveloping existing holdings. The share price has risen sharply recently which is nice for current holders.

[fungus pudding]

I will throw my support in for VHP. Been in here since 2005. Just good steady progress and as Lewy mentioned their weighted average lease term is well ahead of industry standards. They also seem to be constantly active in securing new development sites and redeveloping existing holdings. The share price has risen sharply recently which is nice for current holders.

Might buy some. Is VHP a PIE?

[Toasty]

Might buy some. Is VHP a PIE?

Apparently so. http://www.vitalhealthcareproperty.co.nz/faq

[Lewylewylewy]

Jville mall today:
http://s33.postimg.org/wb0xdagfz/IMG_20160527_120737.jpg

The busier part of the food court is around the corner, but I was in a rush to the shop so I didn't photo that side.

As you can see, stuffs photo was biased to support their article.

[Snow Leopard]

Jville mall today:
http://s33.postimg.org/wb0xdagfz/IMG_20160527_120737.jpg

The busier part of the food court is around the corner, but I was in a rush to the shop so I didn't photo that side.

As you can see, stuffs photo was biased to support their article.

Muffin Break still going heh?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

Jville mall today:
http://s33.postimg.org/wb0xdagfz/IMG_20160527_120737.jpg

The busier part of the food court is around the corner, but I was in a rush to the shop so I didn't photo that side.

As you can see, stuffs photo was biased to support their article.

Your photo's not really the food court, Lewy. The real fc is the area near the southern entrance opposite Hannahs which includes McDonalds and an assortment of Asian - and other- food stalls. Or at least it did when I last passed through.

[simla]

Yes, Jville is often that busy. But this is a pretty typical photo of Queensgate in the weekend, just a few kilometres away. Somewhat busier. http://eyeofthefish.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/mallescalator.jpg

[Lewylewylewy]

Anyone know anything about GMT? Seems like the whole market is booming except GMT

[fungus pudding]

Anyone know anything about GMT? Seems like the whole market is booming except GMT

They're alright. Pay my bills. Sitting on some development land, so assured income for many many years or forever. They retain some earnings for development, so yield could be higher. No doubt it will be one day. Probably updates and reports on website. I never read that stuff. I just look at the pictures and go to the annual roadshow if it's at a venue that's likely to have a decent afternoon tea.

[fungus pudding]

Anyone know anything about GMT? Seems like the whole market is booming except GMT

Look at link on post 853

Disclaimer (joining the trend) hold 100,000

[Lewylewylewy]

Thanks fungus

[clips]

vhp share price seems to be well ahead of asset backing ?

[Lewylewylewy]

It's been like that for a while.

[Lewylewylewy]

Probably people prefer to pay a bit more to cover the risk of a downturn. Maybe it's the rate of growth?

Certainly one thing I've noticed is that there are always a lot more buyers than sellers

[Corporate]

Guys

Are all the listed property trusts PIE's and if so does that make much different as to the ultimate yeild?

Cheers

[fungus pudding]

Guys

Are all the listed property trusts PIE's and if so does that make much different as to the ultimate yeild?

Cheers

Augusta is not. Arg, Str, Pct, Pfi , Kpg, Gmt are. I'm not certain about any others. There is certainly a benefit to 33% tax payers.

[smtrader]

Guys

Are all the listed property trusts PIE's and if so does that make much different as to the ultimate yeild?

Cheers

This might help.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10467939

[777]

This might help.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10467939

Just remember those PIR and income tax rates quoted in the article have reduced.

[fungus pudding]

Seems to be high volume of turnover in LPTs today. Most over 1 mill. with KPG over 4 mill. Interesting.

[macduffy]

Seems to be high volume of turnover in LPTs today. Most over 1 mill. with KPG over 4 mill. Interesting.

A bit of repositioning following the STR announcement?

[fungus pudding]

A bit of repositioning following the STR announcement?


Wondered that but turnover doesn't point to it.

KPG $5.4 mill, Str only $1.4 as is ARG. PFI $1.7 and PCT around $2.5 GMT $1.4

Stride is the only one with a price lift.

[OldRider]

I think LTP dividends are paid about this time, so one would expect a small drop in price due to this
How many are there who buy for the dividend then resell taking a chance the price not dropping?
called dividend stripping.

[fungus pudding]

I think LTP dividends are paid about this time, so one would expect a small drop in price due to this
How many are there who buy for the dividend then resell taking a chance the price not dropping?
called dividend stripping.

They do pay about now, but PFI and PCT have already paid. I think a couple of the others have past the record date, so no div benefit to buyers. KPG is the big volume seller and a good dividend as they pay only 6 monthly, but their payment is due on 17th (Saturday - tomorrow? according to website) so must be past record date as well.

[Lewylewylewy]

Gmt record date was yesterday, so anyone who wanted to sell would be doing it now.

[fungus pudding]

Gmt record date was yesterday, so anyone who wanted to sell would be doing it now.

But where are all the buyers coming from all of a sudden? Last week or so they could have bought at same price and got the dividend. I do not undercanstumble.

[Snow Leopard]

7th GMT was Cum Div - closed at $1.350
8th GMT was ExDiv - closed at $1.335 [down 1.5c]

Div was 1.6625cps + extras

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[troyvdh]

Giday...re Recent fall in some LPT...partiicuarilly PFI...I would appreciate if someone could explain why the entity DNZ...managed by Stride...? who I have never heard of till yesterday..has so much ..seemingly ...attraction...to attract investors...away from (arguably the best performing LPT over the past 18 years).....given the lambasting...even ridiculing ...of this new entity..by a respected commentator T Hunter.....just saying troy

[fungus pudding]

Giday...re Recent fall in some LPT...partiicuarilly PFI...I would appreciate if someone could explain why the entity DNZ...managed by Stride...? who I have never heard of till yesterday..has so much ..seemingly ...attraction...to attract investors...away from (arguably the best performing LPT over the past 18 years).....given the lambasting...even ridiculing ...of this new entity..by a respected commentator T Hunter.....just saying troy

Have a look at thread, Investore IPO. DNZ was the former name of Stride. Stride have managed only their own properties until now, but will take on management of the new company, Investore, which will give stride an extra revenue stream for minimal cost.
Stride shares have taken a leap in the last week while ARG, PFI , PCT, KPG, GMT have fallen.

[RRR]

Troy - The reason is that investors are selling other LPTs to be able to participate in Investore IPO (or even to buy Strides - who are the real benefactor from this transaction). It is very interesting to note that a small amount of selling (from speculators - sorry that is my assumption) can dictate the share price swings at least in the short term.

[777]

Could be a cheap entry into PFI on Monday. All the buyers taken out at the end of trading.

[Sideshow Bob]

Prices a bit down lately with interest rates starting to climb, but some good news:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/86789001/minor-damage-strong-profit-for-listed-property-firms

[Lewylewylewy]

Earthquake fears for foreign investors also a factor

[herbert240]

Argosy Property Ltd and Goodman Property Trust
My wife has recently inherited the above shares from her fathers estate. Her financial adviser is telling her to sell as part of a massive reorganisation of the portfolio to allow for more global exposure. (I may post about the other proposed changes in a separate post) I cannot see any need to sell either share but does anyone have an opinion or advice? Cheers

[horus1]

Advisors all tell you to diversify overseas BUT you generally dont get the same info as for NZ and you have to watch double taxation. I have made money in NZ over the years and never done as well overseas . Both of the shares are good property cos and I would keep them . The father seems to have done Ok and I would be very wary of any adviser. Look at the fee structures.

[percy]

The outlook for NZ economy is very good.We have had stable governments under Helen Clark and John Key,and this should continue under Bill English..
NZ companies pay high dividends which carry imputation credits.
Your wife's father appears to have been of sound mind.
I would stick with his portfolio,and get your wife to change to his advisor..

[horus1]

Great advice,percy

[huxley]

Argosy Property Ltd and Goodman Property Trust
My wife has recently inherited the above shares from her fathers estate. Her financial adviser is telling her to sell as part of a massive reorganisation of the portfolio to allow for more global exposure. (I may post about the other proposed changes in a separate post) I cannot see any need to sell either share but does anyone have an opinion or advice? Cheers

Seems you'd have to consider your overall position.... If you have all of your capital invested in NZ you'll only do as well as the NZ economy, however an allocation to overseas assets could lower portfolio volatility, which MIGHT lead to higher risk-adjusted returns.

Assuming you also live and work in NZ you'll already have an inherent exposure to this part of the world.... I guess it might be handy to have assets which move independently from your home market (since local investments might annoyingly reduce in value just when you really, really need to access them!). ;)

Just some thoughts (AKA playing devils advocate ) :)

[Sideshow Bob]

LPT's have had a great run in terms of price in recent times with low interest rates, rising asset values and yield compression. Interest rate yield curves are starting to steepen, and there is starting to be some acknowledgement that potentially are at the bottom of the cycle for interest rates. Given this, prices could start to come under pressure, and see a correction.

On the other hand, these are great for clunking out dividends and cashflow on a quarterly basis, most operate DRP's, and are PIE's for taxation. (Hmmm I like PIE's - mince & cheese). Relatively stable and believe have a place in a balanced portfolio. Generally well insured and professionally managed - so have been able to sail through any earthquakes etc largely unaffected thus far.

Personally I have done well out of LPT's before current interest rate lows, and bought as a low-risk, bottom draw investment. However sold GMT, KPG, VHP & PCT this week to fund a property purchase.

The other thing, is just beware of the advisor trying to churn the portfolio for generation of fees! Sorry, always a cynic!

[fungus pudding]

Sorry, always a cynic!

Never ever be sorry about that.

[unhuman]

Can't really provide a qualified opinion on whether your adviser is correct in wishing to sell them without knowing your overall portfolio.

In of themselves they are reasonable investments to hold.

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder how much of the dividends are paid out of capital gains. If that's the case, these could be a bad play if property prices stop going up

[troyvdh]

Can anyone guess which listed property entity has performed the best is the past 20 years...just asking.

[Lewylewylewy]

My guess would be VHP, but then kpg in the regular category.

[herbert240]

Thanks guys for advice/comments guys...think we will compromise and keep ARG

[troyvdh]

I believe it to be PFI.Over 20 years about 9 percent pa divs paid 1/4.PFI is a company (one of very few) that has remained..well ...what it is-it owns Industrial property only.Ramping ...probably..hold about 20k.

[Beagle]

Thanks guys for advice/comments guys...think we will compromise and keep ARG

I hold GMT which as mentioned previously I perceive to be slightly less risk due to concentration of portfolio is low earthquake risk zones but having said that took a small position in ARG again on Friday at market close, $1.015.

This is slightly below asset backing and they are talking about the possibility of a slight increase in the dividend next financial year so I am expecting a fully tax paid PIE return of 6.2 / $1.015 = 6.11%, equal to a gross return of 9.12% for people on a 33% tax rate so I think they're a pretty good hold at that price for yield.

[troyvdh]

Roger ...are you taking the Micky...with all due respect....are you a trader or investor....like building wealth....just saying...

[Beagle]

I assure you I am not kidding troyvdh. There are many ways to skin the cat when it comes to growing one's wealth. Investing in relatively safe dividend payers and reinvesting the quarterly dividend through the dividend reinvestment scheme (as part of a well diversified portfolio of other stocks many of which are growth stocks), is a very valid approach in my opinion. ARG GMT and other REIT's are also very popular with folks looking for relatively safe income to supplement their retirement income with very good reason. Much safer collecting your share of the rental income from many dozens of commercial tenants than one or two rental properties with all the risks and work that go with running them.

[fungus pudding]

I assure you I am not kidding troyvdh. There are many ways to skin the cat when it comes to growing one's wealth. Investing in relatively safe dividend payers and reinvesting the quarterly dividend through the dividend reinvestment scheme (as part of a well diversified portfolio of other stocks many of which are growth stocks), is a very valid approach in my opinion. ARG GMT and other REIT's are also very popular with folks looking for relatively safe income to supplement their retirement income with very good reason. Much safer collecting your share of the rental income from many dozens of commercial tenants than one or two rental properties with all the risks and work that go with running them.

Amen to that.

[Out to lunch]

Amen to that.

And you're bathing in all of that liquidity!

Holding PCT (good Commercial Bay progress reducing the valuation risk factor and big fan of David Johnson) and PFI (manufacturing index performing well) at the moment.
Othert than the val's impact due to increased interest rates, might be a good time to review the interest rate cover all of the LPTs have.

[NZSilver]

I'm trying to find a list of NZ's listed property trusts. Does anyone have one available?
Thanks in advance

[fungus pudding]

I'm trying to find a list of NZ's listed property trusts. Does anyone have one available?
Thanks in advance

Argosy
Goodman trust
Investore
Kiwi property trust
Precinct
Property for industry
Stride Property group.

They're the ones I hold. There are others such as Augusta - which is not a PIE. Someone will add to that list 'cos I can't think of the names.

[Kelvin]

I'm trying to find a list of NZ's listed property trusts. Does anyone have one available?
Thanks in advance

http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/typeofbusiness.php#Property_Investment (http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/typeofbusiness.php#Property Investment)

[NZSilver]

Thanks Kelvin,

Another question for the group,

Why did ARG.NZX have big drops in shareprice in september and november?

[fungus pudding]

Thanks Kelvin,

Another question for the group,

Why did ARG.NZX have big drops in shareprice in september and november?

All LPTs did. Why? Who knows? but they had become a little over the top in terms of NTA methinks.
Possibly the talk of rising interest rates spooked things a bit.

[JoeGrogan]

Thanks Kelvin,

Another question for the group,

Why did ARG.NZX have big drops in shareprice in september and november?

The earthquake in November may have had something to do with it as well.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Kelvin,

Another question for the group,

Why did ARG.NZX have big drops in shareprice in september and november?

As FP indicated - all REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts) went down in the second half of last year - it started in the US, and NZ (with the rest of the world) just following.

Markets expect interest rates to go up, which means that real estate purchasers will find it more difficult and expensive to raise funds to buy, which means demand will drop and real estate prices will either stall or drop as well.

Just a natural part of the real estate cycle - market assumes we reached the top and some more soft years likely to follow.

[macduffy]

In addition to the above there was a perception that the search for income-yielding stocks had pushed property/infrastructure/utility stock prices a bit too far. Higher interest rates, as well as adding to companies' costs also make fixed income assets such as bonds more attractive to investors.

[NZSilver]

How do you determine which property trusts to hold? What are the key metrics?

[BlackPeter]

How do you determine which property trusts to hold? What are the key metrics?

Just from the top of my head ...

Location - where is the property?
Diversification of location .. particularly given NZ's shaky grounds - you wouldn't want to hold all property in one center?
Diversification of tenants ... happy with the risk spread?
What is there long term vacancy rate (low is good)?
Are you comfortable with the fluctuation of the vacancy rate (did you like the numbers during the GFC)?
Do you like the return?

There might be more ...

[tim23]

Hold 2-3 yields are similar and great liquidity way better than unlisted property vehicles.

[Lewylewylewy]

Just from the top of my head ...

Location - where is the property?
Diversification of location .. particularly given NZ's shaky grounds - you wouldn't want to hold all property in one center?
Diversification of tenants ... happy with the risk spread?
What is there long term vacancy rate (low is good)?
Are you comfortable with the fluctuation of the vacancy rate (did you like the numbers during the GFC)?
Do you like the return?

There might be more ...

If they are a PIE or not.
Average weighted lease period remaining.
How agile they are (disposing assets that aren't working, smart buys, changing the business to suit demands)
Quality of property

I rate VHP and KPG as the best. VHP because I like the sector and the average lease remaining is something like 18 years, though I do think they are potentially exposed to government policy changes (although super low risk). KPG because they have good growth, but also because they're agile. They have a rental management side of the business that does well, so their management don't just sit there doing nothing and collecting a fee (*cough*...NPT...*cough*).

[tim23]

5% plus net is fine by me hold 15000 GMT and receive quarterly payment of about $250 so about $1000 net return on $19000 employed

[ExtremeHedge]

When was the last time the LPTs were trading below NTA in the main? Prospects of this happening again?

I noticed a couple dropped out of the PIE regimes to be Limited Companies only in the last few years. Why oh why would they do this if their investors now have to declare the dividends?

[fungus pudding]

When was the last time the LPTs were trading below NTA in the main? Prospects of this happening again?

I noticed a couple dropped out of the PIE regimes to be Limited Companies only in the last few years. Why oh why would they do this if their investors now have to declare the dividends?

I only know of Augusta who lost PIE status. Their funds business became a large part of their activities and as such no longer satisfied IRD requirements as a PIE.
Stride restructured and created a second company, Investore. stride has stapled shares which do not qualify as that is management income - Stride manage investore. So only a small part of total income is non PIE.

[NZSilver]

Hi Fungus and others share trader members, I have read some of your post before re property trusts, could you please offer me some guidance? for someone who has been investing in shares for a while, but now wants a simple "income stream" and an investment which is a bit more "set and forget (i know this is never tha case with any investment)" , how do you structure your portfolio of property trusts? How do you time your purchases? how do you select one property trust from another? have you had large periods of poor return? do you sell when interest rates change - increase/decrease? . At the moment i'm quite interested in ARG - simply as trading near/below NTA, debt around 35% of assets, I like office/industrial/retail mix. (especially their retail is more large scale buildings), and Auckland/wellington properties. Im also in the process of looking at stride but have had some mix messages in term of the managment structure.

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PFI/announcements/299217

Pleased to see this. Market seems to agree. For a change we are aligned.

[kiwico]

Those of us who understand insurance will be aware that fire service levy (FSL) is set to increase, potentially astronomically, in 2019. The New Zealand Fire Service has pushed through a 40% increase (39.47% if we're being exact) in FSL from 1 July. On the assumption that LPTs are well insured this is a direct cost.

From 2019 the FSL rules change completely with larger buyers of insurance, such as LPTs (I assume) potentially looking at much increased costs of insurance (as FSL is charged on insurance policies).

All businesses will be affected affected by this but larger ones are likely to suffer exponentially. Have others looked at what effect these increased costs may have on LPTs?

Disclosure: holder of ARG.

[NZSilver]

Notice Milford, westpac and ACC went under 5% seling arg? any reason why?

[troyvdh]

A simple question ..will the acknowledged 3 property investment options for investors be soon reduced to 2 given the arrival of Amazon.

[fungus pudding]

A simple question ..will the acknowledged 3 property investment options for investors be soon reduced to 2 given the arrival of Amazon.


That's not simple. What are the 'acknowledged three property investment options for investors'?

[Aaron]

Notice Milford, westpac and ACC went under 5% seling arg? any reason why?

Maybe they are psychic or as I suspect they are good at their job. When was that data in the interim report to 30/09/2017 made available. This was happening before the end of September so you would hope nobody is getting a heads up ahead of the market.

I see in the herald a drop in rental income and no revaluation up of properties. Actually looking at the report operating cashflow was down 31% for the same period last year I have only had a cursory glance this morning after reading the herald article.

No devaluations in spite of the drop in operating cashflow. Maybe this means capitalisation rates can't go any lower and we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. I didn't look at any buying and selling of property over this period but on the statement of cashflow it looks like they sold $20mill of property to build something or renovate something. Got to get to work so don't have time.

Waiting for the Global Financial Crisis to end all Global Financial Crises before buying property trusts. Hope this is instead of the next war to end all wars.

[Mickey]

A couple of big trades of GMT this afternoon of 2.6M and 1.3M respectively

[Beagle]

A couple of big trades of GMT this afternoon of 2.6M and 1.3M respectively
Behind the paywall lead article on NBR today Industrial property to shine on the back of strong growth in online shopping - or words to that effect.
GMT have made some good headway this last month and I am expecting solid if unspectacular returns in 2018 and beyond. Not expecting any more capital gains for the cap rate compression but rent reviews and ongoing strong demand for the rest of their highbrook estate should see sound returns going forward...nice boring stock, sometimes a slice of the boring steady pie is a good thing...notice what I did there with this being a PIE fund :)

[Joshuatree]

Im holding CIP on the ASX near a high. D/Y is 7.7% in $A:D no franking credits. Some of their industrial props are beneficiaries of online shopping being warehouses where all the goods are shipped from.

[Jamie]

following now

[BlackPeter]

What a boring thread.

Some nice people sold me recently some more Argosy shares for $1 a piece. Probably just bored share holders:sleep:; If anybody wants to sell me some more at this price ... just go ahead - my order stands; I recommend however that you press the sell button before you read further or you might change your mind ;)

2018 results are out: Steady as she goes: Good first HY, really good second HY and outlook just nice (really boring stuff);

presentation:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/318353/279696.pdf

annual report:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/318353/279699.pdf

NTA is now up to $1.12 per share (a real Graham opportunity) and the company holds a great and diversified set of assets with 99% occupancy rate - yawn;

Income - $101m (slightly above expectations);
EPS: 11,9 cents (including value increase through re-valuations);

and did I mention a 6.25% fully imputed annual dividend (edit: meant obviously 6.25 cents, but given I paid $1 per share, the percentage is true as well ;));?

But yep, lets wait until all the excitement is over - I am sure there are still some bored shareholders to sell more at $1 ...

YAWN ...

Ah - and please, don't tell anybody - will you? We don't want to have too much excitement on this thread ...

[Beagle]

^^^^ LOL Absolute classic...so bored I bought some more at a 10% discount to NTA and trading cum a 1.55 cps divvy next month too.

[Sideshow Bob]

^^^^ LOL Absolute classic...so bored I bought some more at a 10% discount to NTA and trading cum a 1.55 cps divvy next month too.

The hound smells a good buy.....and a quick divvy.....

[Beagle]

Even at $1.055 trading cum a 1.55 cps divvy due next month, (effective net purchase price $1.04), that's a >7% discount to NTA which is now just over $1.12.
6.25 cps divvy for the year ahead gives a 6% net return to shareholders for this portfolio investment entity approved fund which is equal to 9% gross return to those taxpayers on a 33% marginal tax rate, (i.e. those earning over $70K).

I would argue that's one of the very safest and amongst the highest returns in the market today.
Safe harbor for some of your funds ?, you folks be the judge.

[BlackPeter]

What a boring thread.

Some nice people sold me recently some more Argosy shares for $1 a piece. Probably just bored share holders:sleep:; If anybody wants to sell me some more at this price ... just go ahead - my order stands; I recommend however that you press the sell button before you read further or you might change your mind ;)

2018 results are out: Steady as she goes: Good first HY, really good second HY and outlook just nice (really boring stuff);

presentation:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/318353/279696.pdf

annual report:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/318353/279699.pdf

NTA is now up to $1.12 per share (a real Graham opportunity) and the company holds a great and diversified set of assets with 99% occupancy rate - yawn;

Income - $101m (slightly above expectations);
EPS: 11,9 cents (including value increase through re-valuations);

and did I mention a 6.25% fully imputed annual dividend (edit: meant obviously 6.25 cents, but given I paid $1 per share, the percentage is true as well ;));?

But yep, lets wait until all the excitement is over - I am sure there are still some bored shareholders to sell more at $1 ...

YAWN ...

Ah - and please, don't tell anybody - will you? We don't want to have too much excitement on this thread ...

Gosh ... what part of "don't tell anybody" do you guys not understand? Somebody must have leaked - just look at that chart:

9961

I guess - I only bought them for the divvie ... but hey, not complaining. Suppose analyst estimates for the coming years might turn out to be a bit on the conservative side - they did mention in their roadshow the chance for some windfall profits.

Always right to buy at $1.00 ... anybody selling?

[Beagle]

Some naughty hound has been quietly getting his snout into more of these ultra boring shares. Anything right up to and including the asset backing of $1.12 has been great buying in my opinion. PIE fund so people can choose whether or not to include dividends and their imputation credits in their tax return or not...anyone earning over $48K shouldn't bother as their marginal tax rate of at least 30% is greater than the 28% company imputation rate. Possibly the safest high yield stock on the NZX ?
You can sleep well at night with this one.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/60b9c1d4/boost-to-listed-property-sector-likely-if-building-depreciation-regime-is-reinstated.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Boost%20to%20listed%20property%20sect or%20likely%20if%20building%20depreciation%20regim e%20is%20reinstated&utm_content=Boost%20to%20listed%20property%20secto r%20likely%20if%20building%20depreciation%20regime %20is%20reinstated+CID_74f94d59005f097d855452fad2d 1da23&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle60b9c1d4boost-to-listed-property-sector-likely-if-building-depreciation-regime-is-reinstatedhtml
Interesting.

[peat]

I like VHP in this sector.
NTA currently 2.26 vs price 210 WALE over 18 years!!

[mcdongle]

I like VHP in this sector.
NTA currently 2.26 vs price 210 WALE over 18 years!!

Not overly keen on their manager though

[Frostyb0y]

Not overly keen on their manager though

Tricky thing with the manager - manager owns 25% and requires more than 75% of shareholders to remove the manager.

[Joshuatree]

Property For industry Bonds. No public pool.
7 years @ 4.25 %
PFI Sets Interest Rate for Bond Offer (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324222)

[BlackPeter]

Somebody put a wee rocket under Argosies shareprice? Up to 1.12 today. Ah well, I won't complain ;); Still good value in my view - and their customers will still need a place to work and sell even when the next bearmarket cometh ...

[Beagle]

GMT had a solid half year result. ARG reported on 22 November last year so their next half year report is due imminently. I am expecting a strong half year result and NTA to have improved to ~ $1.15 on the back of firming industrial property yields. Next quarterly dividend is due next month so maybe people are positioning themselves early. Disc topped up recently at $1.08. Any thing at or just under asset backing is good buying for ARG being a well managed company in my opinion and quite low Beta too :)

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/325989/289413.pdf

Looks solid to me.

[Joshuatree]

Capital Raise to Provide Funding Flexibility for Growth (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352270) Great tenants, downside external managers ,Stride, who are taking up their SPP.

[Sideshow Bob]

Capital Raise to Provide Funding Flexibility for Growth (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352270) Great tenants, downside external managers ,Stride, who are taking up their SPP.

I like this part of the announcement.....


Guidance of 7.60 cps cash dividend for the year ended 31 March 2020 (FY20) remains unchanged, assuming no further economic deterioration due to COVID-19

Considering it is almost May, hoping no further deterioration for the year ended 31st of March 2020! :scared:;):huh:

[Joshuatree]

Could be a good place to park some funds with a high % of essential service tenants there and a good sustainable?yield.Re 3 weeks for qrtly div sub 2c .

[Waltzing]

moved out of PCT and GMT into ARG. profit taking and consolidation before all those OCR go negative and term deposits look for a safe place..should never have sold MCY but ARG might turn out to be very under valued long term here. will be buying a ton more it is goes under a dollar.

[Joshuatree]

hearing high demand and a higher set price so may miss out on my application.

[Joshuatree]

"Investore said the Covid-19 outbreak had a limited impact on its business given many tenants were deemed essential businesses. And the government's decision to allow tax deductions on the depreciation on buildings to resume will provide a $2.2m boost in the 2021 financial year"

Also building a warchest for acquisitions. Will have a capacity of $295 mill to buy distressed bargains.

.Investore builds war chest with $100m capital raising (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328254)

[dibble]

Lengthy blurb on Covid and retail in USA, KPG most obvious local parallel but one might extrapolate the medium term gloom to office space (e.g. owning a tower in a dying precinct). Might a dire retail outcome here force all property categories down, even industrial (once rent reviews come around, defining "market rent" might be fun)? GMT/PFI so far pretty resilient. Perhaps we have our own example of massive change with Christchurch.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/

[Cyclical]

Lengthy blurb on Covid and retail in USA, KPG most obvious local parallel but one might extrapolate the medium term gloom to office space (e.g. owning a tower in a dying precinct). Might a dire retail outcome here force all property categories down, even industrial (once rent reviews come around, defining "market rent" might be fun)? GMT/PFI so far pretty resilient. Perhaps we have our own example of massive change with Christchurch.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/

Yeah, Christchurch is probably a pretty good analogy. It's a year since I was there last, so it's probably improved a fair bit since, but exploring the new CBD at that stage, it was all very nice but there just seemed to be a huge lack of people, presumably as there were all working dispersed throughout the outskirts. I'm sure the C19 fallout is the last thing they need there at the moment.

[NZSilver]

I listened to a podcast - retail listed property in uk/us is finding 25-40% of tenants are not paying lease. The market is pricing retail property accordingly.

[Balance]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/04/1155899/empty-malls-and-empty-coffers

A good summary of how different landlords and tenants are approaching the lockdown situation.

Long and short of it - government is going to have to intervene decisively, or else law suits are going to clog up the courts for a while.

Unprecedented times require unprecedented actions.

[percy]

With a great number of small traders using their home for security for bank finance,a good number will lose their business and home as well.

[Balance]

With a great number of small traders using their home for security for bank finance,a good number will lose their business and home as well.

Hence, the government’s direct loan scheme which will help many businesses tide over the next 6 -12 months.

Businesses & tenants reliant principally on international tourism are going to be the biggest casualties.

[winner69]

With a great number of small traders using their home for security for bank finance,a good number will lose their business and home as well.

Even if any of these businesses close many landlords have no qualms at making a call on the rent due to the end of the lease under the personal guarantee

[Balance]

Even if any of these businesses close many landlords have no qualms at making a call on the rent due to the end of the lease under the personal guarantee

The banks will be first in line, with the government agencies in tow. Be bugger all left for the landlords I would say under the doomsday scenario.

[winner69]

The banks will be first in line, with the government agencies in tow. Be bugger all left for the landlords I would say under the doomsday scenario.

So many ex business owners will need many big hugs and cuddles

[Balance]

So many ex business owners will need many big hugs and cuddles

Have no worries there - Cindy & her whole cabinet are on standby to embrace them into the fold of social welfarism. More power to Labour’s vote bank, eh?

[Waltzing]

Rolled out of PCT and GMT and into ARG a week ago... all my OCA profits sold at 1.30 were consumed as i held on to AIR for to long after not selling when Beagle warned of a bear market... next time i hear the beagle barking that a storm is coming i will go short...but not ARG... i expect this might be stock that is hard to get hold of soon... been buying it for a while now...DISC: held in both personal portfolios, private trading company, and in our trusts. These structures allows for internal rebalancing off market transactions.

[Waltzing]

The big question is where are all those billions in term deposits going to go when they roll over? Is not the stock market the only place to go? Is that not why it was hard to get an order processed and the systm crashed? People know what happend with the GFC. Market bubbles are now forming faster and faster with easying policies from central banks.

[macduffy]

The big question is where are all those billions in term deposits going to go when they roll over? Is not the stock market the only place to go? Is that not why it was hard to get an order processed and the systm crashed? People know what happend with the GFC. Market bubbles are now forming faster and faster with easying policies from central banks.

Yes, a big chunk will go looking for bargains in the market but don't discount the propensity to roll term deposits over at maturity. Rates are miniscule and the cash rate may go negative at some time but that doesn't mean that T/D rates will also. Banks value the stability of having a proportion of funding tied up for a term. I can't see them risking losing that.

[Waltzing]

well Mc Duff, good point , so where is all this new money is coming from. Did many people sell out in febuary? and only long term investors stayed in? If so they must not have been listen to WHO but simply saw what was happening in china? Usually any sign of trouble in china and the ASZ banks sell off instantly and they did not.

[tim23]

Anyone pick up the announcement from Asset Plus (APL) about revaluations? Still trading at massive discount to NTA of 63c

[Waltzing]

good day for GMT demand , will we see this demand for property trusts increase? More deposits from banks finding 2.5 to 4.5% in this sector? We think so.

[arekaywhy]

good day for GMT demand , will we see this demand for property trusts increase? More deposits from banks finding 2.5 to 4.5% in this sector? We think so.

certainly an easy way to get exposure to commercial property, and amongst folks I speak to, they seem to be popular and considered/perceived lower risk than investing outside property

I like the option for smaller holding and higher liquidity

[Waltzing]

On the up and UP again today!!! GMT and ARG.

DISC: Hold and sometimes also trade in several portfolios.

[Waltzing]

Dip coming monday on DOW futures, wont last more than a few hours. Someone tested postive, could happen to a more deserving person. Wonderful news, love a good sell off.

[JSwan]

Dip coming monday on DOW futures, wont last more than a few hours. Someone tested postive, could happen to a more deserving person. Wonderful news, love a good sell off.

Knowing the US markets and talks of the stimulus package and what not, a dip might not even come for NZ on monday, US futures/markets will probably reverse and end Friday positive.

Reversal behaviour happened quite recently with the first presidential debate few days back, seems a Biden win has already been priced.

[ratkin]

Yeah, Christchurch is probably a pretty good analogy. It's a year since I was there last, so it's probably improved a fair bit since, but exploring the new CBD at that stage, it was all very nice but there just seemed to be a huge lack of people, presumably as there were all working dispersed throughout the outskirts. I'm sure the C19 fallout is the last thing they need there at the moment.

Chch has not had a traditional City centre for many years. Not like Wellington or Dunedin. It lacks a heart. Westfield mall in Riccarton seems to be most people idea of a city centre

[Waltzing]

with winter coming on in europe and the states and lock downs now being talked about we may yet see some pretty tough sled coming and NZ defensive share seem to be in demand. 132 back 140, that was tradeable in our on market portfolio...what a stock ... boring as mr B says but hardly boring now.. True HLG is a performer and a darling of the moment but it always seems to sell of on it margin stats or currency or on anything that resembles herd panic. It wont happen to this stock.

[Waltzing]

Another good day for GMT Today. An order over 100,00 left waiting and over 800,000 vol.

[Waltzing]

ARG up to 1.42!!! heads up happy holders!!! well done to those who are longer termers and to those who bought well under 1.15... those who bought at 70 ish... your well in the money.

[fungus pudding]

ARG up to 1.42!!! heads up happy holders!!! well done to those who are longer termers and to those who bought well under 1.15... those who bought at 70 ish... your well in the money.

We should look forward to a boost to all LPTs with Labour's proposed 39% tax on earnings over 180k. There has been no threat to raise the 28% tax applicable to PIEs.

[NZSilver]

Does anyone own PCT? Just looking at it? Trading slightly over NTA. Seem they have fairly high quality buildings

[fungus pudding]

Does anyone own PCT? Just looking at it? Trading slightly over NTA. Seem they have fairly high quality buildings

I've got some. They do own good buildings.

[NZSilver]

Where do people feel there is the best value and lowest risk when it comes to the nz listed reits I have accumulated arg since the markets crashed and began to move upwards, however I feel now it's yield is lower due to the price increase and now trading above NTA so there is less margin for reducing risk. KPG is one I'm looking at as trading below NTA but risky with retail.what are others advice/thoughts/research?

[Waltzing]

appears to be some selling today in KPG and a little in GMT.. interest rates are staying low for a while to come.

[NZSilver]

I bought some KPG today

[Waltzing]

Might prove to be a very good buy!

[King1212]

Damm...missed it...!!!

[NZSilver]

Time will tell.

[Rawz]

Great opportunity to top up on KPG at these levels. I was lucky enough to get some at $1.17 and a double parcel at $1.16 today. What is the NTA?? $1.29 Consistently high occupancy, blue chip retail holdings, pipeline of growth ahead, should run a 6% divvy yield next year. Not sure why it's being pushed down?

[Waltzing]

Stock bounced at the close . Investors as expressed here by contributors saw good value and some got lucky at the day low.. We will all see but it could prove to be a bargain. Im sure everyone with a holding would like to add more at these prices.

Not a Ramp: Just a point of View based on NTA and future dividends.

"Damm...missed it...!!!"

yes we did as well, but you never know its a long hot summer and northern winter might provide some tremors shaking the ground.

DISC: Holding and have held in the past since 2005.

[NZSilver]

Yes, seems to be limited downside risk as trading below NTA, with some hopeful capital appreciate while taking the div. How many cents is the div likely to be next year? I'm just a little confused. 5-6cents?

[King1212]

Forecasted around 5.5c..so another 3c..it could go a bit more if everything goes well as planned.

NTA at $1.29 gearing less than 30%

[NZSilver]

Hopefully they can move towards the 7c payed previously

[Beagle]

KPG - Very attractively priced now but I have shut up shop in terms of any further tweaks to existing positions for 2020. Might add some more early next year.

[NZSilver]

Bought a few more ARG today (first purchase above NTA), probably currently at top/above my valuations but interest rates are really altering valuations especially on yield stock so I see this potentially moving to $1.70 area over the next few months, that's why I added a few more. The small KPG purchase I made Is up nicely 👍 sounds like boxing day sales were less than last year but still relatively high.

[dibble]

Yes, seems to be limited downside risk as trading below NTA

NTA is important for an LTP of course but remember it is simply the opinion of one person/firm (generally speaking) at one point in time and in a year like 2020 a NTA could be wildly out (high or low) depending on when it was carried out (and by whom). Plenty of other industry variables to indicate quality or lack thereof. That said I am happy holding a few.