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Augustus
19-04-2005, 06:50 PM
Anyone else follow this aussie explorer? Has 10% of Maari in NZ & some interesting acreage in China and USA. There could be interesting news out of this co over the next six months.

clearasmud
19-04-2005, 07:06 PM
Made money on these but my adviser thinks they're overpriced.

Augustus
20-04-2005, 08:04 AM
He may/may not be right? What I currently like about HZN is that it is starting to produce oil from the Bayou workovers and the level of production will increase as the workovers & new drilling proceeds this year. The bulk of junior oilers produce nothing so HZN at least will be benefitting from the current oil prices.

The Maari & China exposure looks promising.

JoeKing
05-10-2005, 10:58 PM
Is anyone else following the fortunes of this 10 bagger in the making?

bermuda
26-11-2005, 09:31 AM
Yes,this one is on my radar having recommended it to a mate who was delighted with a rise from 13 cents to 18 cents.But since then its been a downhill slide but at 11 cents it has a lot of value which will unfold over the next year.They missed out on a promising drill earlier this year and the Bayou work overs struck a little bit of legal troubles I think.But it all looks upward from here on.

lambton
28-11-2005, 10:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing

Is anyone else following the fortunes of this 10 bagger in the making?



Yep I'm there, but a prospective 10 bagger? Not so sure about that.

JoeKing
29-11-2005, 09:50 PM
OK maybe not a 10B yet but this Co. but must surely have a great future.
Already cashflow positive choctaw, 10% Maari all go,
some good prospect sites China and a board that obviously has SH interests at heart. Cannot understand why there is not more interest in this forum. Guess we'll have to wait till black stuff starts aflowin...

Mick100
29-11-2005, 10:10 PM
Not really up on the play with this one but I would like to ask - where are they going to get the money from to develope the buibu gulf feild (30%) as well as Maari (10%) over the next two yrs.I think these guys are in over their heads.
You have to learn how to walk before you can run.

disc. sold out earlier this yr
,

Krustytheclown
29-11-2005, 10:35 PM
Yes they look very interesting.....but is the recent dip in the SP a prelude to a rights issue???

I am sure they will do very well with whats on their plate but like all mini oilers-cash is required.

I would not buy until this is obtained or debt funding is locked down.

All the best to holders

G.

lambton
30-11-2005, 09:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by Mick100

Not really up on the play with this one but I would like to ask - where are they going to get the money from to develope the buibu gulf feild (30%) as well as Maari (10%) over the next two yrs.I think these guys are in over their heads.
You have to learn how to walk before you can run.

disc. sold out earlier this yr
,



Recent announcement suggests most of the capital required to do Maari will be debt funded. Have arranged facility thru Bank of Scotland from memory. Coy says only a small amount of equity will be required sometime in 2006.

JoeKing
30-11-2005, 10:02 AM
quote:Originally posted by gregoroius

Yes they look very interesting.....but is the recent dip in the SP a prelude to a rights issue???
I am sure they will do very well with whats on their plate but like all mini oilers-cash is required.
I would not buy until this is obtained or debt funding is locked down.
All the best to holders
G.


Greg
Dip in SP is in line with dips in most small oiler rescent SP and difficult to understand.
This Co. has positive cashflow, plus 6+ million in cash.
As Lambton says finance for maari is already underwritten by BOS.
I particularly like the attitude of management team towards shareholders. No bull no hype just the facts as they emerge. Perhaps this is reflected in SP. I think there will be some scrambling when maari developement actually gets underway.

Krustytheclown
30-11-2005, 11:25 AM
Thanks JK ...for all that clarification.

Looks good.

G.

lambton
12-12-2005, 02:53 PM
Up and running by Nov 2007. 50 m b at a cost of $170m. Twice the production for less cost than NZO's Taranaki development. These guys seem on to it. See todays ASX announcement.

JoeKing
12-12-2005, 05:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by lambton

Up and running by Nov 2007. 50 m b at a cost of $170m. Twice the production for less cost than NZO's Taranaki development. These guys seem on to it. See todays ASX announcement.


And a fraction of the bullshirt! [8D][8D][8D]

Good announcement from NEO too. Bloody hell a gas/oil Co. testing 4 successfull holes with POTENTIAL 50bbls+ at 4CPS???

JoeKing
26-01-2006, 10:31 AM
Lambton
Nice to see SP steadily marching on....must be just about due for progress update?

lambton
26-01-2006, 02:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by JoeKing

Lambton
Nice to see SP steadily marching on....must be just about due for progress update?



Yep. Very tightly held share register is my understanding. Strength lately suggests there is good news on the way. Might be China related?

JoeKing
06-03-2006, 11:03 AM
Heads up
2 day trading Halt requested.

JoeKing
05-04-2006, 08:41 PM
"commercial oil" strike announcement today, SP doubled in 3 months, and no-one is comenting?
Hell000OOOooo

JoeKing
13-04-2006, 08:08 AM
STRANGE???
MORE OIL! and SP drops.
[?][?][?][?]

JoeKing
28-04-2006, 08:20 AM
SHE'S A BEWDY>>>>
http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press%20Releases/2006/Apr/Drilling%20update270406.pdf
Break out the bubbly Lambton...
Cheers
JK

JoeKing
10-05-2006, 07:17 PM
Strange...
The talk of the day and no-one on ShareTrader cares???
Heelllooo.....any one home???

Packersoldkidney
10-05-2006, 08:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Compared to other sites sharetrader seems to be mising the beat lately... shame.
Guess not as many active posters lately

AA

quote:Originally posted by JoeKing

Strange...
The talk of the day and no-one on ShareTrader cares???
Heelllooo.....any one home???



I traded this one today, AA, because it was "hot".....I bought yesterday and got out today because I'm not sure where its going from here in the short term, as in the next few days.

Maybe higher tomorrow morning? After that, I don't know. They still have to do a full assessment on the find so you'd think in the intervening time interest would drop a fair bit, though its true Horizon are awaiting on news from other projects as well.

I'll have a low ball bid on the buy side just for fun, to see if it hits it.

keneti
10-05-2006, 08:06 PM
:Dyes im smiling too, could have been bigger but sold 1/3 at 4O this morning free ride from here on in.I have been in for 6 mths, makes my nogs look very sad.Have loaded up on FAR at 19.5 yes its only paper profit but makes for a warm fuzzy glow. Good luck to all holders and how high can it go????

Packersoldkidney
10-05-2006, 08:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Hi POK .. just thought id take the time to thank u for your contributions to sharetrader, read ur posts with interest, Think we both hold a particular undisclosed company which is going places.
Think you deserve your advanced membership for this alone lol.
Keep up; the posts
AA




Cheers.

Thanks for the positive feedback.

JoeKing
24-05-2006, 11:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by JoeKing

Is anyone else following the fortunes of this 10 bagger in the making?



Yep I'm there, but a prospective 10 bagger? Not so sure about that.


HELLoooo anyone home???
Lambchops
X4 and the fun has just begun....

JoeKing
08-06-2006, 10:59 AM
heads up... more good news!

ScrappyO
25-02-2008, 07:14 PM
Anybody still follow HZN.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080225/pdf/317n1csx9v6cct.pdf

They are coming to the end of a drill but there is a catch. Current sp 32c 41,096,066 options expire 28 feb 08 at ex 35c. The drill wont finish before 28th and it looks like they have no cash in the bank. Anyone holding, Just interested in any views.

Cheers O

Crypto Crude
18-03-2008, 09:25 PM
WOW...
HZN 22.5cents...
Great oilers continue to get knocked...
:cool:
.^sc

bermuda
18-03-2008, 10:20 PM
WOW...
HZN 22.5cents...
Great oilers continue to get knocked...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,
Something is going on here. Some guys say sell. Some guys say buy. I told my bro to sell.
Very strange.

Tok3n
19-03-2008, 06:58 AM
two dusters + non conversion of options doesn't help.

But they have producing assets coming on stream soon + more drill targets this year.

Crypto Crude
19-03-2008, 10:33 AM
Bermuda,
In this market I got to keep my cards close to my chest and pick stocks with short term announcements and stocks which are undervalued...
Horizon has forward looking projects with mammoth cashflows expected in the future.... current market wants cashflows now....
Out of the 3 wells in the China sea, this next one is the one that will strike... Its re-testing a previously discovered well which flowed oil...
great buying opportunity sub 20c I reckon...
:cool:
.^sc

yogi-in-oz
19-03-2008, 01:17 PM
:)

Hi folks,

HZN ..... expecting 2 time cycles to bring us some news, around 25032008 .....
... will be looking for a test of the lows, at that time ..... :)

happy days

paul

:)

=====

Crypto Crude
03-09-2008, 11:21 PM
Take a feast... I really like the line



Development drilling of the Maari field, initially of the primary Moki formation
reservoir, is about to begin

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=202820

Corporate
04-09-2008, 06:26 AM
Take a feast... I really like the line

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=202820


Shrewdy...I love it that you are poping up with these sneaky posts that indirectly related to cue. I know your inching to post some thoughts on the Cue thread!

Crypto Crude
04-09-2008, 02:46 PM
shephejame,
theres just so much to like...
got to be patient over the next few weeks-> one month...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB
06-09-2008, 09:07 PM
HZN was well recieved at the 2008 Goodoil Conference in Fremantle this week . Everybody I talked to dropped the name as a rising star amongst the oilers....

brettdale
07-09-2008, 08:48 PM
All the juniors oilers are struggling, its been a very long and bumpy year.

ELYOB
14-09-2008, 01:51 AM
why 30c ......... this is totally irrational , esp going into this week next!

POO has to rise , the septics are talking rubbish through the rear end . Ok oil touched US$99.99c per bblo yesterday , now they all recon 75 bucks next stop . But logic tells me , it aint gunna happen . You have 2 devastating GOM hurricanes , so no supply of 21% US oil for the next 90 days plus , OPEC cut 500,000 bblopd , septics dont realise what this means . yet anyway !

Listed to Jim and John on Financialsense.com .....there is no oil bubble ,nor metals bubble but a realignment of supply against steady established demand .

The game is irrational as the Septics wont face reality . Such to with HZN , we will see a turn and we have time with the delays . Maari Project and Gulf of Thailand... WILL BE DONE SIDE BY SIDE !

Huang Chung
14-09-2008, 10:05 AM
why 30c ......... this is totally irrational , esp going into this week next!

POO has to rise , the septics are talking rubbish through the rear end . Ok oil touched US$99.99c per bblo yesterday , now they all recon 75 bucks next stop . But logic tells me , it aint gunna happen . You have 2 devastating GOM hurricanes , so no supply of 21% US oil for the next 90 days plus , OPEC cut 500,000 bblopd , septics dont realise what this means . yet anyway !

Listed to Jim and John on Financialsense.com .....there is no oil bubble ,nor metals bubble but a realignment of supply against steady established demand .

The game is irrational as the Septics wont face reality . Such to with HZN , we will see a turn and we have time with the delays . Maari Project and Gulf of Thailand... WILL BE DONE SIDE BY SIDE !

Gustav and Ike have shut down REFINERY capacity, so the shortage you are referring to is not a shortage of crude, but refined products.

Crypto Crude
08-10-2008, 12:03 AM
ELYOB-HZN was well recieved at the 2008 Goodoil Conference in Fremantle this week . Everybody I talked to dropped the name as a rising star amongst the oilers....


hey ELYOB,
after seeing HZN fall so much, I decided to have another look at the stock...I spent a few hours going over all the large numbers...
Boy, at these prices this could be a very good switch play, after Zeus and Spikey over at CUE...
CUE is 100.8 Million dollar MCAP...
HZN 168 million dollar MCAP...
and HZN have a whopping 15 Million barrels of oil as reserves (2p) ... and big upside resources...and is on track to push close to 9000-10,000 BOPD in 2010...
are you kidding me...?
Hey has anyone looked at HZN's Thailand Assets?
with up and coming drilling...
HZN has lost over half its value since May...
Im going to have a serious think over the next few months in the lead up to full field production for the CUE HZN switch...
and at least that way, id be allowed to post on the thread huh...
:D
.^sc

ELYOB
20-10-2008, 11:11 PM
Since my last post above things moved down so quick on the fear around .

Time to mend fences .

HZN will be at it along with the rest .

Maari will happen when weather permits ....

GOT has been delayed till Jan 09 ....... Pearl taking longer with its present program, this will delay things , which could help the funding process.

Good plans for PNG next year ????

China delayed alittle but seen as good for the funding process .....but it is waiting on Chinese answer...... China wants the project to produce is what i heard .

Close sources say to expect a huge performance in first quarter onwards 2009.

Corporate
14-11-2008, 02:54 PM
hey ELYOB,
after seeing HZN fall so much, I decided to have another look at the stock...I spent a few hours going over all the large numbers...
Boy, at these prices this could be a very good switch play, after Zeus and Spikey over at CUE...
CUE is 100.8 Million dollar MCAP...
HZN 168 million dollar MCAP...
and HZN have a whopping 15 Million barrels of oil as reserves (2p) ... and big upside resources...and is on track to push close to 9000-10,000 BOPD in 2010...
are you kidding me...?
Hey has anyone looked at HZN's Thailand Assets?
with up and coming drilling...
HZN has lost over half its value since May...
Im going to have a serious think over the next few months in the lead up to full field production for the CUE HZN switch...
and at least that way, id be allowed to post on the thread huh...
:D
.^sc


Shwedy.....Horizon currently cheaper than cue. 13c vs 14

Cue's MCap 91m
Hzn 107m

Hzn has been well and truely thrashed!

boysy
27-02-2009, 09:22 AM
looks as though they could have some problems funding expenditure from the report out yesterday thoughs ?

Crypto Crude
02-03-2009, 04:41 PM
holy Schmollars...
HZN has some heavy debts... debt to equity out the window...
I dont know the exact details of financing requirements off the top, but this is not looking pretty...
IF HZN is around in 6 months, the SP will be easily a bagger higher...
the thought of switching from CUE to HZN upon Maari Production has been declinded... If debts, debt requirements, shortfall, placement, or some other facility to boost the companies short term cash requirements then this is a an unbelieveable buy....
hence I tipped it in the HC SS comps...

as for Maari... looking the goods...;)...
Its almost Twice the current size of TUI...
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy
02-03-2009, 04:46 PM
the thought of switching from CUE to HZN upon Maari Production has been declinded...
QUOTE.

Hi SC.

Not sure what you mean by this.

Could you clarify please?

:)

Crypto Crude
02-03-2009, 05:16 PM
macduffy,
I had posted and thought months ago, (maybe not so recently) that I had considered switching from CUE to HZN upon production from Maari because HZN has twice the stake in the field...
posted it here in OCT, and on the CUE thread...

With all the delays, and oil prices, markets and HZN debts taking into a/c cue assets and developments Ive decided to stick with CUE...

If HZN survive the next 3 months then this is going to go for a big run...but then, so will CUE.... with much less short term risk IMO, read my cashflow prediction of CUE...
i can make reference to Maari, but I wont look into HZN's financing arragements because its a current debt cow, and investment criteria not met (in this market)......
The big costs are only just coming and first shipment April perhaps...
... The project is safe... the company..... hummm.... wild card short term....
hence the reason why I have decided not to make the CUE to HZN swtich on production....

based on Maari fundamentals there is no reason why HZN cant gain cash surplus on reserves... this is why HZN ran an upgrade quickly out the gate.... Technically bankers dont have to do a good (minus the extra o) damn thing....
hehehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude
02-03-2009, 05:18 PM
over 70 million in debt, no revenues.... opps.... revenues come in the form of interest recieved... hehehe...

two different beasts, in two different positions on Maari...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB
02-03-2009, 08:36 PM
Current debt is US$58.5m, whilst cash on hand as at Dec 31 is US$10.2m

First Maari cheque is due in May for approx USD$1.6m

Completion of the second producer - and associated oil flow - come late March and the third well in late April will increase the number of liftings per month from mid-year. As the first three wells provide the bulk of the peak production rate of 35kbopd, it is estimated production will support 3 cargoes per month from Aug.

A deal on PNG is most likely .

A rights issue is not likely in this market unless fully underwritten .

The company has initiatives on hand to handle debt due end June09 , and will take appropriate action for the best outcome .

HZN are still planning to drill at least the Manaia well at the end of the Maari sequence. Whether or not Matariki is drilled then or deferred will depend on the joint decision of their partners.

Worth talking to company , they will answer questions if you are a shareholder ....

I see Euroz are quietly confident debt issues will be handled ok , but waiting for the company to announce how , before rerating it?

Crypto Crude
02-03-2009, 08:52 PM
facts seem to be getting twisted...???

hey elyob,
I like you, but you just said it yourself...
fifty eight and a half million dollars of debt....US currency...

Im not denying the project....or asset quality....
Im sensible enough to realise that HZN SHOULD be fine raising funds based on its asset quality.... but as Tricha pointed out the market doesnt care....
Perhaps HZN is now fully overdone on the downside, and its going sideways from here before it goes up...
I dont want to be in to find out....
Ive tipped it in two comps... wild card....
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB
02-03-2009, 09:27 PM
The confidential details of how the loan of 19m due june09 is structured is what everyone is speculating on . Talking to the company , they dont seem too worried ?

SC , Like you I find the assets they are running with , Maari and Stanley are of very high quality , and I get that feel from lengthy talks x 2 with the HZN CEO late last week ....

June 09 we will see a different HZN .... remember there are a couple big players here , and they are going to see things right I hope .

boysy
15-03-2009, 12:16 PM
Stright out of the horses mouth in a march presentation.

Funding Position

Near term funding requirements

US$10 million related to:

- Maari development costs March 2009 to June 2009 until self funding –US$7 million

- Pre-development expenditure – Block 22/12 and Stanley – US$2.3 million
US$19.25 million BOSI corporate facility repayable 30 June 2009

Funding sources

Proceeds of sale of 25 – 50 % slice of PNG assets – sales process underway

Re-financing of US$19.25 million BOSI corporate facility

New equity, to the extent required

so basically they will hit up shareholders the ammount depending how much they can get for selling some of PNG assets.

shasta
26-04-2009, 07:57 PM
Any more Fundamental thoughts on HZN, updates, hows the cash situation?

Placement? capital raising? , Pretty close to technical support, faint signs of life building.

Major shareholder selling down :(

Financing Arrangements
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=209385

SPP Proposed (Heavy Dillution coming up)
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=209383

But for you AA, plenty of volatility ahead ;)

shasta
26-04-2009, 08:38 PM
Thanks Shasta, so there should be a floor of around 10c with enough cash in bank afterwards?

Whos buying above 10c and why?

I guess alot about HZN applies to CUE regarding Maari?

NZO is my O&G play, i may look at LMP (for CSG), or LNC (for UCG/GTL).

As for HZN, it's off my radar.

I'm picking the next major upswing in oil will be around the same time Uranium (U308) picks up again (2010?).

shasta
26-04-2009, 08:52 PM
Ill keep an eye on it, Theres a 50% gain just between 10c and 15c and thats before the point that any Technical action would occur.

If they can raise the capital, I would be more than happy to be a buyer at 10c at this stage.

I think this is going to break out into a Up Trend.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/hzn_ax_price_daily_and_accumulation.png

AA

Just be mindful that any increased volume could well be the overhang of the extra shares.

Crypto Crude
27-04-2009, 12:41 AM
fundamentals...?

HZN will earn full year EBITDA of $75-80 million AUS dollars at these prices......
it is safe to say that even at these low oil prices, HZN is a future cash cow...
remember the earnings stream is for the long long long term, with costs upfront...
mate... you could package up the future revenue stream, and sell it to pensioners as some sort of CDO...

HZN will get to 50cps on Maari, manaia, and Stanley alone...
it might take a good few years to pay the debt down, grow cash, and see the other side... it will happen...
good things take time...
re-rate could happen at any time...
:cool:
.^sc

mark100
27-04-2009, 03:24 AM
They don't seem to have placed a limit on the amount of money than can be raised from the SPP. Each holder will be entitled to purchase $10,000 of shares at 10c in the SPP, subject to approval at an EGM. There were over 4000 shareholders according to the last annual report and there were lots of people like me on the 14 April buying small $500 parcels on multiple accounts to gain entitlement to the SPP (a bit like buying a call option).

If say 2000 shareholders apply for the SPP there is a potential $20m of new capital in addition to the placement.

Lots of dilution but would also fix up the debt problem to a large extent. Without a debt issue you would have to think a bounce to at least 15c is possible once the overhang of new shares is cleared.

croesus
27-04-2009, 09:33 AM
Seems Interesting... when does this window of opportunity end.. Thanks.
CUE TEX PPP WID HGD

mark100
27-04-2009, 09:46 AM
Hi Mark100, you must feel fairly confident in the future outlook if you are using multiple accounts to obtain a significant holding, How and why does HZN stand out from the others in the sector, and what has particularly caught your eye, were you a holder prior to the SPP are you increasing your over all holding at these levels and whats your investment time frame.

AA, never held before but have watched a bit. Just jumped in for the SPP because of the potential price discount. If I can get 12c or better I will probably dump. Thats 20% gain for doing not much. Although if everyone has the same plan I may have to wait a few days/weeks. Can't see much downside below 10c in the near term since they have reduced the debt.

Croesus, the record date has now passed. You had to be on the books by 20 Apr which meant buying on or before 14 April.

croesus
27-04-2009, 10:25 AM
thanks Mark, currently not a holder.. and have been away a bit so that one flew under the Radar... will keep an eye on them in future......

shasta
27-04-2009, 07:16 PM
Im also interested that there is twice the amount of Buyers to Sellers in the Depth and volume is increasing.

I Don't understand how the over hang can increase the amount of buyers at a particular level, can you explain how that works?

Ill tread carefully and just watch for a bit.

I'd imagine its more the opposite, the HZN fans are buying up now to get there cheaper entitlement.

But the extra dillution will mean, many holders selling down now, to buy more under the rights issue (at a cheaper price).

Kind of a false volume spike if you will, & more akin to musical chairs...

But, it has the kind of volatility you like!

ELYOB
27-04-2009, 09:39 PM
Not much info flow in the HZN camp ; but potentially a lot could happen by June 09 . PNG is more than they are letting on . They are actually talking to other parties , which I think EWC is one . PNG could be as bigger than Maari from what I am hearing . We are talking only condensate here? dyor

ELYOB
20-05-2009, 11:10 AM
Announcement much better than I thought ......good value atlast

gazprom1
21-05-2009, 06:22 PM
Well picked ELYOB. Good result for HZN...cash in the bank! Hope Manaia turns out to be more or less what is anticipated and the share price should continue its upward movement!

Sharp737
21-05-2009, 10:10 PM
Incredibly good news from PNG sale....US$30M at end of July and then US$15M and US10M towards their development. Awesome! And they only sold half their interest with 50% in one field and 24% in the other license still retained. Amazing!

And the price of oil is around US$60 with as you say, the Manaia prospect drill coming up.
This is a no brainer now

But the BIG ONE is the sale of half their interest in the PNG licenses for US$55M!! Huge for HZN! IMHO

Sharp

AMR
21-05-2009, 10:23 PM
I notice the SPP has been extended! As stated earlier by one poster (and maybe someone could confirm), one could buy $500 and apply $10k extra shares?

Also, as a New Zealander,do we need to do any extra paperwork? Or is it simply get on the register by that date, wait for the documents to arrive, and send your cash through?

Ponda
21-05-2009, 10:36 PM
AMR,
You had to be a shareholder on the 27th April to qualify to participate in the SPP

Sehnsucht888
22-05-2009, 11:06 AM
Good that they extended the date to allow the announcement to come out. Means they should get better take up, and people are well informed.

Crypto Crude
24-05-2009, 08:27 AM
I worked out, using a rough estimate,
that HZN sold half its stake in two PNG assets that would earn 3-3.5 Billion dollars in revenues over its life time, for $55 Million US dollars...

In this crazy market, the market wasnt even valuing them at that, so some realisation... hence a 20% rally...

but HZN have sold out for a 20% rally, at the expense of future baggers on baggers return...
:cool:
.^sc

Sehnsucht888
24-05-2009, 01:27 PM
If yo are right, then they still have 1.5+ billion in future revenue left, for a market cap of 150 million.
The last reports had the asset valued at around 88 million (30 April - Wilson HTM), and they had been planning on selling 25 to 50% for a while. So they got better than they had it valued at.

Sometimes things just need to be sold to get the cash to proceed..

gazprom1
28-05-2009, 06:31 PM
Good interest in HZN today although price ended up unchanged. Any views on what impact the new share issue will have on the share price in the coming days?? Shares are trading at a 70% premium to the SPP. Will the instítutions dump their shares when issued to them?

ELYOB
29-05-2009, 12:55 AM
Got to allow time for events to take place here . May have to wait 3 months for the weight to come on . It will in time and re-rated it will be ....strongly .

Strachan is the most realistic , as the brokers look stupoid .

Strachan has 42c on it now ; but that was when poo was 46 USD$ ; that is now short of 64 USD$

Sehnsucht888
01-06-2009, 09:09 AM
Good interest in HZN today although price ended up unchanged. Any views on what impact the new share issue will have on the share price in the coming days?? Shares are trading at a 70% premium to the SPP. Will the instítutions dump their shares when issued to them?

There was only a 10K cap remember, so I would doubt many play with such small amounts...
Probably be a few traders that will dump quickly, but others will keep where they sold out to buy these ones for similar $

ELYOB
01-06-2009, 11:00 AM
We will get an announcement re SSP , and I think HZN will be greedy ? they may overlook the fine print in the SSP document . Be good if they do , will improve finances greatly , and be good for share price more in the medium term ....

gazprom1
03-06-2009, 01:46 PM
SPP announcement has been taken positively by the market. Interesting re the scaling!!! Hope the recent share price appreciation continues...

Sehnsucht888
05-06-2009, 08:41 AM
Good to see that the directors or related parties have taken up strong allocations, although I don't quite understand some of them. A couple are for amounts of 200,000 and 300,000 shares.
Particularly:
Director: Fraser Ainsworth
Nature of Interest: Securities acquired by Spouse
How Many Acquired: 200,000

- However the SPP stated:
"The maximum of A$10,000 will apply even if a shareholder receives more than one offer from Horizon Oil (for example as a result of holding more than one shareholding under separate share accounts) and irrespective of the number of shares a shareholder holds on the Record Date. Horizon Oil can reject any application for shares if it believes a shareholder has not complied with this condition."

So how do those 2 points reconcile? The company knew about the multiple holdings to report the change, yet condons the breach of one of their conditions?
Or are the disclosures not well presented, and should be different 100,000 holding ones..

ELYOB
05-06-2009, 10:50 AM
Don't worry about the SSP allocations , it is a great move for us long holders ......we have averaged down well , and most anticipated this multi-allocation benefit would happen . All good for us , win win situation .

The effects of the processes of late will take time to work through the system , and any selling in the meantime will be those who got caught .

The quarterly [out in July09] will spell it out to those who cant see where the directors are going with all this ..

Happy trail ahead .....

Larger holder than large . QED.

Sehnsucht888
05-06-2009, 06:41 PM
Cheers Elyob - just seems off that if you know the holes in the process, you can get lots and lots, yet thhose that bought in after the announcement can only get half, (unless they know the holes too).

BTW - I'm NOT one of the later, but probably have been that naive in the past

Sehnsucht888
12-06-2009, 02:30 PM
This has done very nicely since the new shares issue. Good to see the support. Great interest in the last couple days especially...

dragonz
12-06-2009, 02:53 PM
This has done very nicely since the new shares issue. Good to see the support. Great interest in the last couple days especially...

No complains from this quarter. I brought Wednesday and sold today so a quick 20% profit keeps the interest going. :D

gazprom1
12-06-2009, 03:00 PM
Well done Dragonz. I sold a few today but still a long term holder. The SPP at 10 cents was a great result. I want it to run a little further yet before taking some more money off the table.

ELYOB
13-06-2009, 12:12 PM
This has a long way to go [xmas~!]..... another 45% atleast .... end Aug09 will look very attractive , and gains of 45%+ will happen up the track ; things to happen ....

upside_umop
13-06-2009, 12:42 PM
i agree, i dont where you get your 45% from?...but the manaia well provide hype. should be a nice rise alright!

% stake of that drill to market cap, cue has more exposure though.

gazprom1
19-06-2009, 12:21 PM
A little bit of interest in HZN today...hope ELYOB's prediction of a 45% rise will be here by August=)

Does anybody have information on any sort of timings for the PNG project now that HZN has a partner?

ELYOB
11-08-2009, 12:55 PM
8m shares traded upto 20c this morning first thing .... HZN is to 'expand' its game , and we should be told all very soon* ..... members of Sharetrader would know what I am talking about , and this post is only to bring the horizon into perspective

* word on the street is a couple weeks.



Target by Peter Strachan is 33-40cents . There will be new Broker valuations soon when news is out .

drillfix
11-08-2009, 04:41 PM
HZN is to 'expand' its game , and we should be told all very soon* ..... members of Sharetrader would know what I am talking about

* word on the street is a couple weeks.


Ummm Elyob, what game? which street? and what exactly is gonna happen?

Havent really followed this thread or HZN but curious to know.

Crypto Crude
13-08-2009, 02:35 PM
nice call ELYOB,
HZN continues to run...

I think you might be referring to Manaia?
:cool:
.^sc

evilroyrule
16-08-2009, 01:58 PM
hi there, i been following a lot of your posts whixh has helped me come up to speed very quickly with a number of issues, so firstly thank you. i hold some HZN, and was tempted to venture out and run with some TEX or URA. given recent solid volume around hzn and rumours i am tempted to sink a bit more in, just for the short term maybe. i am new to the mineral/resources side of things, and wld appreciate any thoughts. are shares like CUE, HZN and WCL CUE more for the longer term invest, and wld they be more resistant to a crash following this rally?

sorry, i just read what i typed. i dont mean to put it all on you so to speak, any thoughts you have wld be appreciated. where i live people still put money under their bed so kinda limited in that respect!:confused or a possible direction to where is hould start my own digging?

Crypto Crude
16-08-2009, 03:34 PM
hey evil roy,
I hope you are not interested in TEX, URA because of me...
TEX should have a little run on snapper A-3, but my overall sentiment I posted on the TEX thread remains the same...
I dont have any thoughts on mineral/resource stocks because I suck at them...
In that sector I think im 5 losses from 6 attempts...
I have not really looked at WCL, but CUE and HZN look downside protected because I do not believe the markets have factored in Maari's true value into their respective market caps...
Manaia coming up/ and M2A which is the upside....
CUE has more diverse assets which are happening in the short term...
so low down and big up generally applies (in theory)...
Roy...
You should start looking at Coal Seam Gas...
...
Its hard to give advice when you dont really say what sort of risk you are looking at, I would presume if you are interested in URA then you want very high risk...
:cool:
.^sc

evilroyrule
16-08-2009, 03:55 PM
thanks shreWdster. i live off the coast where they drilling in nz so its fair to say pretty confident they sitting on a lot of oil out there. just trying to figure out how these asx companies fir into the equation. few mates on the rigs say drilling been good. just looking for a company that wld benefit from that. typically they never release all the good news at once. just slowly "uncover" new wells. they will be in that basin for a while. ura was to give a balance to the portfolio in terms of resources, but v high risk? probably dont have the fortitude for that!!! thats for your help!

Crypto Crude
16-08-2009, 04:49 PM
roy...
Off the coast of Taranaki...
Manaia drilling now, you already have a position in that... good...
NZO, AWE, PPP about to start an exploraiton drilling campaign later this year....
good risk return because NZO has Kupe...
wont be mind boggling returns (unless strike), but yet another oiler with good downside support...
NZO is one of the most undervalued stocks on the NZX...

as for resource stocks... mackdunk thinks MCR is going to go up 100%...
hes usually right about that sort of stuff...
well, two years ago he was...
:cool:
.^sc

evilroyrule
16-08-2009, 06:53 PM
thanks for that. ill think ill just sit for abit and watch the big boys play!:eek:

scorp57
17-08-2009, 12:29 AM
Evil- Shrewd Definately knows his oilers...

I read you are interested in URA... As shrewd said definately high risk! Not a stock I would recommend a large position in to start off with (although I beleive there is alot of upside from here)...

I would probably look at RIO or BHP to get rollling, but if you are interested in URA, perhaps a small position may be beneficial as there may be alot of upside, without going "all in".

Good luck!

evilroyrule
17-08-2009, 07:34 AM
thnks scorp, i appreciate you guys taking the time to reply.

ELYOB
17-08-2009, 08:51 AM
Shrude Crude, refer "a couple of weeks" back , is PNG .....not M~!

upside_umop
29-08-2009, 11:01 AM
An extract from preliminary report:


In May 2009, the Company advised shareholders that it had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Mega Fortune International Limited, a subsidiary of P3 Global Energy Company Limited (together ‘P3GE’) of Thailand to appraise and develop Horizon Oil’s gas / condensate resources in western Papua New Guinea. If completion of the agreement occurs, P3GE would acquire a 50% interest in PRL 4, which contains the Stanley discovery and a 24.82% interest in PRL 5, which contains the Elevala and Ketu discoveries, for a total consideration of US$55 million.

P3GE did not complete its obligations under the agreement on the prescribed date.
P3GE’s failure to complete may lead to termination of the sale and purchase agreement.

I think this is positive for HZN, as they are now past the tough spot with higher oil prices being able to produce the cashflow to pay down Maari. Maybe they will need to buy some put options to satisfy the bankers for potential downside in oil prices. But then again, it all depends on the bankers as they have ~$70 million in debt. Also, the last line in that extract doesnt say explicitly that the sale is off...just that it MAY lead to termination?

However, what I think is positive may not necessarily be viewed as positive by the market...I will sit back and watch the reaction and may take a position.

ELYOB
29-08-2009, 12:41 PM
In the annual accounts , HZN has stated Bank Finance Debt is US45.75m [AUD$54.46m] at the year end 30th June , 2009.They may have paid some of this down from Maari production since . They had US$10m in cash at the time , so net debt looks like about US$36m [AUD$43m]

Production looks good from Maari and the PNG cash to come is transforming ?

Overnight the company could be operating full on as a producer with 20m bucks in the bank , and I am sure they will get back to further exploration in a few months

evilroyrule
29-08-2009, 01:36 PM
obviously that explains the huge increase in last couple of days of sellers. i give up. have to be on the inside to do anygood these days it seems

upside_umop
29-08-2009, 02:01 PM
In the annual accounts , HZN has stated Bank Finance Debt is US45.75m [AUD$54.46m] at the year end 30th June , 2009.They may have paid some of this down from Maari production since . They had US$10m in cash at the time , so net debt looks like about US$36m [AUD$43m]

Production looks good from Maari and the PNG cash to come is transforming ?

Overnight the company could be operating full on as a producer with 20m bucks in the bank , and I am sure they will get back to further exploration in a few months

I'm just quoting the preliminary report, ELYOB. There it states as at 30 June:

Current Liabilities - Borrowings = $34 million
Non-Current Liabilities - Borrowings = $35 million

But then I read that they repaid this down, so your figures are right. So if they get the $55 million, $20 million net cash. Nice.

Maari is great, but are you not concerned about the PNG money? Thats the whole point of my last post. They may not get it! If they don't, it will just be a little bit boring for a while as they wont be able to fund exploration, will they?

Crypto Crude
29-08-2009, 04:23 PM
Upside...

If the Deal is off it would be great news because P3GE got half of HZN PNG for a steal... a thief, (reminds me of RPM).....
and now P3GE are silly to risk not having a deal by missing the first payment of $30 Million US to HZN...
the deal of 300 BCFE (BOE, but with gas), for Stanley, plus PRL-5 of as much upside is worth billions and billions of dollars in revenues at production stage...
HZN dont need money anymore...
take the deal back...

HOT TIP....
Load up on HZN if the deal between HZN and P3GE is cancelled...
HZNs sp will drop abit, but it will open up a much bigger future as HZN wouldnt be giving away such big assets for such little chump change...

there would be nothing boring about HZN...
Nothing boring about holding Value Upside...
its got diversification of some longer term projects, but its cheap on a forward looking basis...
Manaia coming too...
:cool:
.^sc

Sharp737
30-08-2009, 03:37 PM
I agree Shrewdy, my sentiments exactly

tricha
31-08-2009, 06:09 AM
GOOD things take time.:)

Maari exceeding expectations



By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post


Last updated 05:00 31/08/2009
Share (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2815928/Maari-exceeding-expectations#share)
Print (javascript:window.print();)
Text Size (javascript:alterStoryTextSize();)

http://static.stuff.co.nz/1251619739/937/2815937.jpg Supplied
FULL PRODUCTION: New Zealand's biggest oilfield, Maari, off the coast of Taranaki, has come in to full production of almost 40,000 barrels a day.




New Zealand's biggest oilfield, Maari, has come in to full production of almost 40,000 barrels a day, according to one of the field partners.
Horizon Oil said Maari, about 80 kilometres off the Taranaki coast, started producing oil on February 25, and so far has produced 2.9 million barrels, with almost all of that sold.
But since all five production wells at Maari came on line a fortnight ago, the field has been producing more than 39,500 barrels a day, better than initial expectations of 35,000 barrels.
If production is maintained, the field could produce about 14 million barrels in its first year. By comparison, the offshore Tui field hit peak production of 50,000 barrels, but that has tailed off rapidly.
Horizon also reported that drilling was under way on one of two wells near Maari, which if successful, would extend the field.
The Manaia well will be drilled to 6500 metres, about 10kms southwest of Maari. Brokers have estimated Manaia could add 20 million barrels to Maari's 50 to 61 million barrel oilfield.
Horizon has a 10 per cent stake in Maari and reported revenues of US$8 million (NZ$11.7m) for the June year, all from Maari production since late February.
World oil prices rose slightly on Friday to about US$72 a barrel, amid optimism that the global recession is ending, which should mean a rebound in ailing world energy demand.
There was a long delay in the development of the Maari field, which cost up to $1 billion, according to some estimates.
Production has also suffered interruptions since oil started flowing in late February. The field is expected to produce oil for 10 to 15 years.
Meanwhile, Horizon said drilling of the Manaia appraisal well started on August 1, which would be followed by a second well.
Horizon also reported a US$2 million after-tax loss from continuing operations and a US$6m loss from discontinued operations, relating to exploration interests in Thailand, since sold. The total loss for the year was US$8m.
Continuing operations made a loss of almost US$16m in the previous year.
Horizon made a US$2.5m profit in New Zealand from its stake in Maari, boosted by a US$1.3m tax benefit, taking total profit in this country to US$3.8m. That gain was overwhelmed by losses in Thailand.

upside_umop
31-08-2009, 07:29 AM
Upside...

If the Deal is off it would be great news because P3GE got half of HZN PNG for a steal... a thief, (reminds me of RPM).....
and now P3GE are silly to risk not having a deal by missing the first payment of $30 Million US to HZN...
the deal of 300 BCFE (BOE, but with gas), for Stanley, plus PRL-5 of as much upside is worth billions and billions of dollars in revenues at production stage...
HZN dont need money anymore...
take the deal back...

HOT TIP....
Load up on HZN if the deal between HZN and P3GE is cancelled...
HZNs sp will drop abit, but it will open up a much bigger future as HZN wouldnt be giving away such big assets for such little chump change...

there would be nothing boring about HZN...
Nothing boring about holding Value Upside...
its got diversification of some longer term projects, but its cheap on a forward looking basis...
Manaia coming too...
:cool:
.^sc

Thats all very well shrewdy, but like im asking what the markets going to think.

$55 million USD for a stranded gas asset was IMO quite a good price, and holders on this forum and forums alike were all relatively surprised when this was announced. Will they now be surprised to the downside of this now potentially not going ahead? Remember, PG3E had the 'hook ups' for the gas demand too.

Agree the gas is worth potentially billions, but there is development costs and no associated pipeline as yet. Also potential of a gas glut. PNG LNG should provide more exposure though and have flow on effects just as it has done in CSG.

If the market makes the stock drop, it will be because of added uncertainty with respect to stanley and loss of a value adding activity.

How much will HZN be paying for Manaia? 10 million? Theres their immediate cash gone. No more drilling for a while...which by my definition would make an oiler a little boring.

Anyway, lets see how the market reacts. It could be positive off the mark...or negative.

evilroyrule
31-08-2009, 04:31 PM
well i must say im pleasantly surprised at how sp has withstood to day, last few minutes seen approx 1.5mil shares trade at 20 with plenty of depth still there. what you think shrewdy?

Crypto Crude
31-08-2009, 08:05 PM
I think long term HZN and CUE are an absolute steal at any price because Maari is a performer, and the surrounding area makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up...
im thinking Manaia is going to be a success, and M2A protecting some possible downside on P3GE fallout...
HZN 25-30c in two months...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB
06-09-2009, 03:44 PM
The origonal deal is off unless $30m was paid by Friday. There is a new super deal in the wings is the hot rumour around Perth towards end last week ready to go . Lotsa interest in HZN end week , and sources I associate with recon much happening PNG alone this coming week. HZN is gunner run this week ....or next.

Hold HZN , dyor

Huang Chung
06-09-2009, 05:48 PM
New Guinea Energy (NGE) up around 25% on Friday.

http://www.ngenergy.com.au/

Not sure where it fits into the mix...maybe some of you guys do.

gazprom1
07-09-2009, 07:06 AM
ELYOB,

Do you think that the HZN share price move last week was attributable to the PNG potential news? HZN was added to the ASX 300 and I was thinking that the move may have been related to that as a few other stocks (eg BOW, etc) that were added to the index moved higher as well.

All good regardless.

ELYOB
07-09-2009, 01:21 PM
There are parts of a jigsaw ......EXXON hzn nge Eastwood petro and a few others here . but dont know how they will fit . BUT it is exciting . HZN can really show what they have . Could be as much as 900BCF + CONDENSATE [ rated at 30-45bblC per mscfg] in their total leases at present , with more potential upside...?

evilroyrule
07-09-2009, 06:42 PM
i think with the imbalance of buyers vs sellers we could be in for another good week. lets hope any news that comes out is before thursday/friday.

gazprom1
07-09-2009, 09:23 PM
What is happening on Thursday/ Friday??

evilroyrule
11-09-2009, 11:10 AM
good news this am following termination of prior agreement for sale with psg. sounds like a better deal coming next week

evilroyrule
15-09-2009, 10:11 AM
go hzn! shld be good day today!!!!!!! part sale of png for 60 million.

Crypto Crude
15-09-2009, 02:54 PM
Ohhh what a shame...
HZN accepted a similar offer...
what great PNG assets Horizon are giving away on the cheap...

With Maari revenues and the placement, HZN have the cash to get through...
They should have just sit on these PNG permits for one more year...What a steal...
oh well...
I doubt CUE will be farming down its interests in the region...
ColinAU said CUE might be getting more exposure in SEGobe;)...
:cool:
.^sc

evilroyrule
15-09-2009, 03:22 PM
Ohhh what a shame...
HZN accepted a similar offer...
what great PNG assets Horizon are giving away on the cheap...

With Maari revenues and the placement, HZN have the cash to get through...
They should have just sit on these PNG permits for one more year...What a steal...
oh well...
I doubt CUE will be farming down its interests in the region...
ColinAU said CUE might be getting more exposure in SEGobe;)...
:cool:
.^sc

hey SC, sorry my istae i thought the rior agreementwas 30-35million? interestng day hzn, cue, cfe, irn, ura all going nuso. was going to did my toe in again but no idea which way to go. cue or cfe me thnks. seems to me some smoke around ura though? couple of good volume days

ELYOB
16-09-2009, 08:45 AM
HZN is in for a move today with Euroz putting 47c target out there . They seem impressed with all that cash now , gives the stock open range to return to exploration .

Sehnsucht888
16-09-2009, 08:58 AM
hey SC, sorry my istae i thought the rior agreementwas 30-35million? interestng day hzn, cue, cfe, irn, ura all going nuso. was going to did my toe in again but no idea which way to go. cue or cfe me thnks. seems to me some smoke around ura though? couple of good volume days

60 million vs 55 million by my reckoning - 30 + 15 letter of credit + another 10 letter of credit was the original deal. This deal is 30 + 8 + 22.

Key thing is that they have 30 of that actually paid this time

evilroyrule
16-09-2009, 09:48 AM
thanks for that. will be interesting day if we can chomp through to 29.5. big imbalance of buyers v sellers. of course that can change quickly!

evilroyrule
17-09-2009, 11:06 AM
check out the buy side on hzn!

upside_umop
18-09-2009, 01:33 PM
Check out the volume today though.

There was a serious movement of shares going on....OBV will have made a massive step up on a positive close.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=au%3Ahzn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=4&state=8&sid=137523&style=350&time=7&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=7430&mocktick=1

evilroyrule
18-09-2009, 01:40 PM
Check out the volume today though.

There was a serious movement of shares going on....OBV will have made a massive step up on a positive close.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=au%3Ahzn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=4&state=8&sid=137523&style=350&time=7&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=7430&mocktick=1

yep. much much stronger today. bit of resistence at the 30/31. might take a while to chomp through.

Sehnsucht888
18-09-2009, 06:28 PM
Single off market transfer of 147million shares helped a lot. I see the disclosure for the seller, not the buyer though..

Huang Chung
18-09-2009, 10:48 PM
Saw some positive comments on HZN in a briefing note on presentations given at the RBSMorgan's conference this week. I'm not sure who wrote it, but they thought it was one of the better stories being told. Valuation lifted from 39c to 53c.

evilroyrule
29-09-2009, 04:43 PM
hi HC,

since that time at least two directors have added 1 million shares to their prior holding. disclosure statement says on market trade so im guessing they paid for these like me and you, which must be a vote of confidence surely?

evilroyrule
02-10-2009, 02:54 PM
beautiful report from hzn re finances for the future!! keep on you good thing.

Sehnsucht888
15-10-2009, 12:43 PM
Another annoucement on Manaia today, with the same information? Or is there something interesting and new in there. Seems the last few annoucements have all been much the same..

dragonz
15-10-2009, 12:49 PM
Another annoucement on Manaia today, with the same information? Or is there something interesting and new in there. Seems the last few annoucements have all been much the same..

this is on my watchlist today. Just looking for some sort of volume.

ELYOB
16-10-2009, 01:52 AM
HZN has come a long way , and need to get on with the next job being creating the value in PNG , Remember this nearly went to the wall .

Sharp737
18-10-2009, 05:56 PM
Yes, Horizon have well and truly turned the corner. And really, the time to buy was when they were around the 11 - 13c mark. The old "buy in gloom, sell in boom" scenario.

Horizon are now an entirely new Company! Potential is absolutely huge. Maari, and now Manaia and 2A bode extremely well for the Company. The Door is now open for Horizon to grow very substantially and with the price of oil steadily increasing (barring any world wide disasters), and the income is going to be immense. They have done really well and commendations to them. And this is not to mention their PNG and China assets... Whew!

I think that we have to be patient just as those who held PPP for a number of years....like me...and I did sell because I thought PPP were fully priced (sold at A57c and NZ lot at 79c so was very fortunate) and I saw much more value in Horizon. I'm not saying that PPP will still not do well but I think Horizon will do much better. The value of Horizon must get unlocked as time goes on. Maari alone is a winner and we now know that we have very substantially flow rates for quite some time (perhaps years?) with the latest two winners. Any other strikes in nearby prospects would huge bonuses for the Company. So investors should be patient, the value will be unlocked and if PNG goes ahead quicker than anticipated, we are going to have an explosion! As you can tell, I am quite bullish on this Company :)

Of course, this is my own opinion and DYOR applies as always

evilroyrule
20-10-2009, 11:12 AM
big day coming for hzn!

Sehnsucht888
21-10-2009, 07:56 AM
a good day indeed. A new high for the year..

gazprom1
08-12-2009, 12:15 PM
Good upward movement for HZN today...good volume as well. News in the wind?

gazprom1
04-01-2010, 07:00 PM
Strong start to the year for HZN...highest close since I can remember. I am picking a solid year for HZN and I have it in the 2010 comp. Positive news from Tailsman re PNG LNG project would be a bonus!!

Evilroyrule are still the stock?

Gazprom

evilroyrule
05-01-2010, 08:37 AM
hi GP,
sadly i left just after doubling my money. a foolish thing to do in hindsight, but im still learning. i knew it wld go 40 plus given at 39 thats when management bonus shares kick in. looking for rentry, but no chance at the mo. well done to you for hanging in there.

Sharp737
05-01-2010, 09:31 AM
You still did well. No one ever went bankrupt by making a profit :)

Phaedrus
05-01-2010, 09:45 AM
Just remember two simple rules, Roy.

(1) Never buy a stock in a downtrend.
(2) Never sell a stock in an uptrend.

HZN never stopped making higher highs and higher lows. Its uptrend never faltered and the OBV just keeps climbing.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/HZN15.gif

drillfix
05-01-2010, 01:52 PM
Just remember two simple rules, Roy.

(1) Never buy a stock in a downtrend.
(2) Never sell a stock in an uptrend.



Now ain't that just the total plain truth...lol

Phaedrus, does any charting programs you know of have a feature that clouts the user on the back of the head to tell them to drop their doggy's..?? LOL :D

If so, I want it, or better still, need it~!

gazprom1
05-01-2010, 10:10 PM
hi GP,
sadly i left just after doubling my money. a foolish thing to do in hindsight, but im still learning. i knew it wld go 40 plus given at 39 thats when management bonus shares kick in. looking for rentry, but no chance at the mo. well done to you for hanging in there.

You did well to double your money...I still have some but only 20% of my original holding...needed the cash off market!!! Incredible rise frm 10 cents a few months back. Enjoying the ride now..from memory they were around 50 cents a couple of years back and they should get there again if the PNG LNG moves forward.

Gazprom

evilroyrule
10-03-2010, 12:27 PM
hey gp, bought bck in at 29 and 32. looks like somethng is afoot. increased vol today, and up 5%. hzn imo is a good thing for 50+ by the time year is out.

ah yep. something in the wind. keep watching i say. slomeone desperate to buy today.

gazprom1
10-03-2010, 12:41 PM
ERR,

Agree. Looks to be upward pressure. Has been rallying for a few days now from the lows. It has great revenues and PNG LNG could come to fruition at some point. Would be great to get some news on that.

Gaz

Sehnsucht888
07-04-2010, 10:20 AM
Nice movment up yesterday, and some big buying depth already.. Could be another good run this week...

evilroyrule
15-06-2010, 09:40 AM
are we expecting some news???? decent sp action of late and strong bids this morning.

ELYOB
16-06-2010, 12:28 PM
I personally feel HZN is going nowhere. PNG has that sovereignty issue , and long lead time about it , and in China they are getting screwed ! Now if they were concentrating on NZ*** I feel this would be booming by Xmas 2011. Mid 20's for now in my book . Dont hold any now .

NZ*** = now I have checked , and the drilling at Te Kiri is Q2 2011 , and Matariki is Q4 2011 , according to CUE presentation . But , not likely to happen ?????

gazprom1
15-10-2010, 01:39 PM
HZN has bounced 15% from its recent lows on the new oil flows from Mania. Still hold but don't have a huge amount of enthusiasm for the stock. Solid revenue flows for the forseeable future though.....might look to exit if the rally continues next week!!!

gazprom

gazprom1
03-02-2011, 08:58 PM
HZN announcement today was very positive. Encountered a second zone with 43m net gas as well as the primary zone. SP up nicely. Looks like there could be a material reserve upgrade.

Gazprom

Crypto Crude
09-09-2011, 09:00 PM
future production profile is amazing...
should we worth double the price NOW...

PNG the future...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB
10-09-2011, 11:46 AM
Watch for any price response to a find at NGE well next door in PNG ...

gazprom1
18-09-2011, 07:22 AM
It has been a while since posting on this thread. Medium/ long term outlook is excellent and more or less fully funded for China project due to come into production end 2012 - more likely to be end of 1st quarter 2013. PNG will be a company maker and having Tailsman onboard is a huge benefit. NZ is providing them with decent cashflow and possibilities to add production relatively cheaply. SP is very depressed at current levels (like so many medium cap oil/gas co's).

IMHO is looking like a solid investment at these levels. Going to take a nibble this week especially if there is any further pullback because of global jitters. May take a while for a re-rating though so only for the patient.

Gazprom

PS NTA/Share 24 cents, current SP 22 cents

Corporate
04-10-2011, 05:34 PM
It has been a while since posting on this thread. Medium/ long term outlook is excellent and more or less fully funded for China project due to come into production end 2012 - more likely to be end of 1st quarter 2013. PNG will be a company maker and having Tailsman onboard is a huge benefit. NZ is providing them with decent cashflow and possibilities to add production relatively cheaply. SP is very depressed at current levels (like so many medium cap oil/gas co's).

IMHO is looking like a solid investment at these levels. Going to take a nibble this week especially if there is any further pullback because of global jitters. May take a while for a re-rating though so only for the patient.

Gazprom

PS NTA/Share 24 cents, current SP 22 cents

Gaz, did you end up getting any HZN? Now at 17c and could offer a great opportunity with a market capitalisation of $193m.

Cheers,
C

gazprom1
04-10-2011, 09:10 PM
Hey C,

No I did not buy any but feel like I should be. HZN has been a star for me in the past. Global markets are keeping me on the sidelines...more pain tomorrow by the looks of Europe. I will let you know IF I buy any.

BTW, I still hold AEM and hurting a little on that one!!!

Gaz

drillfix
05-10-2011, 01:39 AM
Hi Gaz,

Good to see you again and sorry to hear about the pain that AEM has been bringing you. Any or most stocks being held by anybody will always take some type of hair cut whilst these days and uncertainty is upon us.

While we are on the HZN thread, like many stocks is down trending also with OBV and weakening RSI and price trading below the falling EMA as shown on the Daily and Weekly chart of HZN.

HZN daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/otnp1mjgeloaifxfpgw_HZN.png



As Corp says, could be a bargain at 17c which also happens to be support at present.

Failing that, the next levels are 13.5c and 10.5c accordingly. (Or, with resistance at 21c and 25.5c above)

Agree that more likely more pain with some relief every now and then, yet lots of uncertainty so its good to see you holding ground on the sidelines as well, as this will also keep you in a strong position for any relief rallies to randomly appear.

Well, good to see ya again and hope you keeping well.

Cheers for now~!

gazprom1
05-10-2011, 06:28 AM
Hey DF,

Thanks for your post. All great with me. Markets are interesting to say the least.

Re HZN, those support levels of 10.5 cents and 13.5 cents, that would have been a few years back?????They did a SPP at 10 cents years back and that is when I piled in (I actually was buying from 20 cents right down). They are different company now to what they were then - they only had prospects back then and no producing assets. Currently they have plenty of cash and projects that are producing.

I am going to transfer some money to my brokerage account today and look to buy some in the coming days. Will look to buy over the coming months...it is a no brainer for me.

DF, can you take a look at the charts for PAN and let me know your thoughts if you have the time. Dividend yield is 5.5% and it has been hammered and yet is cash flow positive and a growing war chest of funds.

Keep up the great work with your posts. Hope you are well over there and let our apples in=)=)=)

Gaz

drillfix
05-10-2011, 12:22 PM
Hi Gaz,

I have posted some comments and charts in another thread regarding PAN (to not go off topic here), so check it out and sorry that it doesn't have a weekly as I usually like my PRT charts which I usually post with EOD data.

With regards to HZN, seems to be a bounce off the previous 17c so perhaps of 19c again where resistance lay.

Something is going to happen soon with HZN as the 13ema falls (currently at 19.5c) and dropping while price becomes squashed with then only left with one choice, to move up, or to move down.

As they have cash and projects that are producing then surely it will break to the upside (favour probability?) as if they never had that then probability would suggest to the downside.

Like everything, time will tell, so may be a good time to buy even though the stock is currently showing it is in a heavy downtrend.

Oh btw, No worries about the apples mate, providing they were grown on your farm they are always welcome here mate :) Or at least on the gold coast anyway..lol

Cheers~!

drillfix
05-10-2011, 02:53 PM
Hey Corp and Gaz,

It appears there is a BOT trying to sell the stock down.

Buyers step up to the plate at 17.5c and then after that happens, tiny parcels getting sold off, which of course, add up after a few days or so.

Add/Edit:

Looks like I was wrong for a move to the upside, no doubt support will be tested now we have a break past 17c to 16.5c, so the question is when.

Are these guys expecting any news/results or anything soon? As the way they are getting sold off like this, could suggest that news to come may not be too flash, hence a sell off.

Corporate
04-02-2012, 08:35 AM
Fellas,

I bought some HZN a week or so ago, and this company really does excite me! Funding is a risk but all information points to management being all over this. Read the chairmans report, very reassuring.

China progressing well with lots of upside (production commencing at the the end of the year).

But it's PNG that I really like:


Stanley liquid stripping FID approved (11mboe condensate and 360 bcf gas)

Elevala drilling success proving the concept of a field that is likely to be about twice the size of Stanley (19mboe condensate and 300 bcf gas)

Success at Elevala upgrades the prospectively of Ketu (to be drilled next), Tingu and Elevala West

Farm in to PL259 which surrounds the whole Stanley and Elevala area!



Look look at the recent company presentations and the production that is coming on stream from PNG and China in the next 1-2 years!

Coming up is confirmation of funding ($160m from a consortium of banks), no dilutive equity rasing. And the results of ongoing negotiation to sell PNG gas.

Check it out. xstrata and HIG delayed the release of their feasibility study for the frieda river copper/gold project (tier 1, mega project) in PNG to further assess power options. They were originally going to to use a very expensive hydro setup. However, the feasibility study was delayed to assess "a number of potential power options becoming available in the study timeframe" Word on the street is that Stanley gas is one of the options being assessed!

DYOR

gazprom1
04-02-2012, 08:35 AM
HZN has had a good run for the past 4 months - 16.5 to 26.5....60% rise. Past week or so it has moved from 21 to 26.5. Strong revenues, PNG on the way, NZ revenue....market sentiment has helped.

Gaz

gazprom1
04-02-2012, 08:39 AM
Corp....you posted half a second before I did. How is the market treating you?? It has been a fantastic start to the year...just wondering if I should lock in some profits. Have had a full recovery on AEM - 0.6 to 1.0 this week. Inclined to get out and put it down to experience as I have no idea and no faith in what they are doing.

Re HZN, if the market sentiment changes IMO HZN could give back some of its gains. Love it medium term.

Gaz

Corporate
04-02-2012, 11:59 AM
Just to add something further. A new player in PNG has recently listed on the ASX with the ticker code KPL. As far as I can tell they have a few misc permits in PNG but also 15% of PRL 21 which contains the Elevala discovery. The same permit that HZN holds 45% of.

Now KPL has 170m shares on issue which equates to a current market cap of $34m. They also have some cash which will mainly be used for admin and the cost of drilling of Elevala and Ketu. I know it is very simplistic but lets assume that the other misc permits are not ascribed any value. Therefore, the implied value of 100% of PRL 21 based on KPL market cap is $226m, equating to $102m for HZN share of the permit!!

What ever way you look at it, even half the $102m. I think that the market hasn't yet factored in how valuable PRL 21 is. It is likely to be bigger than Stanley and imagine the synergies of the two developments.

Then management farm into PRL 259....read the announcement in detail

"Planned production hugs at Stanley and Elevala/Ketu"


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120124/pdf/423xcknk0jm0qn.pdf

ELYOB
05-02-2012, 10:02 PM
Gas in PNG is a problem atm as PNG is the laughing stock of international "oiler patch" . The govt and business is pathetic at this time . I guess this should be taken into account , Peter Strachan has made some thoughts ....????

HZN does not explain to shareholders or the market what is going on in PNG politically and business wise . Risk is high ........what a country. Other oilers with resources in PNG give zero value to their little squares on ye mappe!

Corporate
06-02-2012, 10:32 AM
ELYBOB, like who?

OSH seems to be doing alright in PNG and worth a few billion!

Not everyone has proven liquid rich reserves in PNG like HZN.

Corporate
06-02-2012, 10:52 AM
Additionally information this morning on PRL 21 from KPL

https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/619FA221836872323D7204DB2F40FFBA/external/pdf/kpl/asx/665850

Crypto Crude
06-02-2012, 12:39 PM
elyob,
I enjoy reading your posts and agree with much of what you say,
but I do not share your thoughts of PNG...
PNG has the right mixture and exposure set to really benefit all operators and juniors involved...

Its hard to beat AUS, but
PNG is still one of my favourite regions to invest... and for good reason

http://www.lngworldnews.com/oil-search-png-lng-project-on-track-for-first-sales-in-2014/

ELYOB
12-02-2012, 12:04 PM
Euroz got new sheet out to clients .... worth the read .... they have strong reservations ..... Euroz are a supporting broker and now they have downgraded HZN target , and have reservations about their balance sheet for the future?

Corporate
21-02-2012, 08:29 PM
Nice move on Horizon today (9%) closing at 30c. Seems like the selling is starting to thin a bit. Interesting couple of weeks coming up. This may shoot into the mid 30c range once the finance is signed off.

Corporate
23-02-2012, 12:26 PM
WOW!

We now have a path to monetising our PNG gas.

https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/E21C7824B8C508C9CB1318FEE8EF9EF5/external/pdf/hzn/asx/239884

Corporate
23-02-2012, 06:10 PM
Talisman and MC have an aligned vision for the aggregation and monetization of gas and condensate liquids in
the Western Province and intend to leverage their respective skills in upstream exploration, production and
LNG project development to deliver development success for the benefit of all stakeholders, including the
people and government of PNG and the Western Province.

Extract from the latest announcement

ELYOB
11-06-2013, 11:08 PM
HZN have derisked PNG a lot lately . China about to boom for them . Back to NZ to fix Maari after a bad run . Seem to be turning the corner , bright future down the trail . Share Price has fallen back lately to 36c , feel it is worth lots more .

Just wonder if we have any supporters .....

Now holding HZN

gazprom1
12-06-2013, 08:51 AM
HZN have derisked PNG a lot lately . China about to boom for them . Back to NZ to fix Maari after a bad run . Seem to be turning the corner , bright future down the trail . Share Price has fallen back lately to 36c , feel it is worth lots more .

Just wonder if we have any supporters .....

Now holding HZN

Hi ELYOB,

Yeah, I am a supporter but do not currently hold. Their recent farm down has derisked their portfolio. China is ramping up and it will be interesting to see where the production is at the end of the June quarter. Great cash flow as extraction costs are low.

Thought it may have tested 30 cents a couple of weeks back when it touched 33.5 cent (I think) intra day but it has found support.

Would like to buy some in the very low 30's but it may not come to pass.

Good luck ELYOB.

Gaz

ELYOB
22-06-2013, 03:05 PM
Tax sell time has enabled further loading the truck at 34.5c . This is top buying season with HZN , which has top quality projects 1. NZ 2. PNG 3. China

HZN is currently producing 3700bblopd onway to 7mbblopd in the next 5 months . Apparently there could be more to the nip deal! PNG is going to be sooner and bigger than we expect. HZN finance and B/S will benefit !

Exciting times imho ..... for me 60c target by Xmas 2013 [pls note : SC]

Hold HZN

Corporate
22-06-2013, 07:37 PM
Tax selling time.....have you seen the last couple of DOW sell offs!

gazprom1
24-06-2013, 05:17 PM
I am not sure how far the market will go and how far it will drag HZN but I am in as of late this evening. First time in several years. Also bought NDO today as have traded it well recently. Missed on topping up more ROC. All 3 companies have strong cashflows and plenty of news flow coming in the 2nd half of the year. HZN/ ROC own more than 45% of Beibu.....

Market has wiped out more or less everything today. There seems to be no discrimination between good or bad companies.

Good luck.

Gazprom

ELYOB
25-06-2013, 09:04 PM
Corporate, yes I hit the market big-time because of tax selling squeeze . The DOW selloffs were only ripples , one should not get worried about that . With the busting of the gold and PMS bubble ; improved USA economy base we are getting back to normal times for me to trade. I trade the oil patch and it is under-valued period . Its gunna happen. I am also aware what is going on in China and that does not worry me at all , all the better for China !! Tax buying has given me large chunks of roc hzn cue and many others ...

gazprom1
02-10-2013, 03:01 PM
Looks like another good discovery by HZN. SP has reacted favourably despite being a large overhang from the recent capital raising. Will give instos an opportunity to lighten their exposure. I like HZN going forward...active drilling program, strong cash flows, $$$$'s from Osaka Gas, etc

Gaz

gazprom1
02-10-2013, 10:17 PM
While it is difficult to understand the potential volumes that may have been discovered today as there was no mention of potential flow rates, etc, I am not sure Mr Market fully appreciates the potential to HZN. It has a large footprint in the PNG "sweetspot" (high value condensates together with the gas) and excellent partners. It has beibu oil/ NZ oil to fund exploration and development going forward together with cash from Osaka. If the US manages to sort out the debt ceiling and the markets remain calm, we could see a re-rating of HZN into the mid forties and maybe beyond.

DYOR

Gaz

ELYOB
04-10-2013, 10:36 AM
A prominent geophysical analyst spoke yesterday that whilst testing still to be done, Market hasn't realised significance of Tingu disc. He says , an extra gas zone has been disc. , as well as the main zone which un-expectantly is likely linked with Elevala and Ketu. If this is the case, says the resource is far greater [2E + T ....previous 500 BCF and 400 BCF/liquids] possibly >1.5TCF/liquids. Good for stand alone medium Gas Plant ! [Source : Geophysicist Strachan]

2E + T > 1.5mmmcufg + 50mmbblce > 250mmbbloe

Would like to know what Talisman think !! Osaka Gas would like it also . With these quality companies involved and this giant being ONSHORE , something will happen.

Huang Chung
05-10-2013, 09:32 AM
Was very happy to pick up some stock yesterday. Quite surprised the share price has settled back so quickly, after a fairly muted move up on the back of the announcement.

Looks like good long tern value at these levels.

Corporate
05-10-2013, 07:21 PM
Guys, I hope you are all doing well.

Just some thoughts on Horizon:

The company is currently capped at $430m, plus around $200m of debt. The first tranche of cash from the Osaka deal may be used to reduce debt, but, in my view the majority of it will be used in bring the PNG assets closer to FID.

So for arguments sake the enterprise value is $630m.

In my view this is getting on the high side in this environment when you consider

- the company gave away 40% of the PNG assets for a deal that mainly hinges on getting to fid on an LNG project
- maari isn't producing and there are question marks surrounding whether reserves will ultimately be recovered
- capital is constrained (maari drilling, china stage 2 and obviously PNG)

The level of rem is also high:

CEO in $1.6m pa
CFO and exploration manager on $1.2m pa each.

Especially when most assets are non operated.

I really do like the assets but I really don't see significant upside in the near term.

gazprom1
05-10-2013, 08:31 PM
Guys, I hope you are all doing well.

Just some thoughts on Horizon:

The company is currently capped at $430m, plus around $200m of debt. The first tranche of cash from the Osaka deal may be used to reduce debt, but, in my view the majority of it will be used in bring the PNG assets closer to FID.

So for arguments sake the enterprise value is $630m.

In my view this is getting on the high side in this environment when you consider

- the company gave away 40% of the PNG assets for a deal that mainly hinges on getting to fid on an LNG project
- maari isn't producing and there are question marks surrounding whether reserves will ultimately be recovered
- capital is constrained (maari drilling, china stage 2 and obviously PNG)

The level of rem is also high:

CEO in $1.6m pa
CFO and exploration manager on $1.2m pa each.

Especially when most assets are non operated.

I really do like the assets but I really don't see significant upside in the near term.

Hey Corp,

Hope you are well wherever you are in the world. We are in Asia for a while and then I am heading up to the Himalayas for a couple of months. Not sure yet what to do with my portfolio.....liquidate some or all or just let it run. I have done ok/ good with a large portion of my portfolio (75-80%) but have taken some losses on the remainder in the order of 20-50% (AJQ, NSE, CUE). Have traded NDO really well and sitting on nice gains in OEL and ROC and in the money with TAP, HZN, and CFE. Half cent moves on any of those are gold for me. Aussie/Kiwi cross has taken the gloss off.

Re HZN, I need to see numbers around Tingu and whether or not this is a "giant onshore field". They are talking an ADDITIONAL 100mmbbl (27mmbbl net to HZN plus an extra % re liquids). If they can start the condensate production quickly this would obviously be advantageous. IF the Tingu discovery means that they can start up a mid size LNG train then that will be material. Beibu is as it is at least 15,000bopd (HZN 27%) and Maari will be back online shortly. Maari drilling for a reserves upgrade of 11mmboe....I guess the drill bit will do the talking. Beibu extension - I have not seen the capex for that. More drilling onshore PNG and offshore NZ.

Rem is a worry and I would like more rem tied to SP performance, production and milestones. HZN, IMO, is not a 1 or 2 bagger in the short to medium term but it could be 25-40% IF Tingu, Maari and Beibu all come to fruition. Management tend to be quite bullish on their prospects which is better than other oilers that seem downbeat.

Hope this finds you well.

Gaz

Huang Chung
06-10-2013, 10:59 AM
Taking a simplistic approach, the share price has traded around the mid-thirties for quite a while. Last week's Tingu announcements caused a brief, muted rise in the share price, but it has now settled back at pre-announcement levels. I find it hard to believe the (so far) positive outcome had already been factored in by the market.

Corporate
08-10-2013, 07:58 PM
Hi Gaz

Wow, a couple of month in the Himalays will be amazing! I've just come back from Oktoberfest - what an event. I'll send you a PM in the next few weeks.

Cheers,

C






Hey Corp,

Hope you are well wherever you are in the world. We are in Asia for a while and then I am heading up to the Himalayas for a couple of months. Not sure yet what to do with my portfolio.....liquidate some or all or just let it run. I have done ok/ good with a large portion of my portfolio (75-80%) but have taken some losses on the remainder in the order of 20-50% (AJQ, NSE, CUE). Have traded NDO really well and sitting on nice gains in OEL and ROC and in the money with TAP, HZN, and CFE. Half cent moves on any of those are gold for me. Aussie/Kiwi cross has taken the gloss off.

Re HZN, I need to see numbers around Tingu and whether or not this is a "giant onshore field". They are talking an ADDITIONAL 100mmbbl (27mmbbl net to HZN plus an extra % re liquids). If they can start the condensate production quickly this would obviously be advantageous. IF the Tingu discovery means that they can start up a mid size LNG train then that will be material. Beibu is as it is at least 15,000bopd (HZN 27%) and Maari will be back online shortly. Maari drilling for a reserves upgrade of 11mmboe....I guess the drill bit will do the talking. Beibu extension - I have not seen the capex for that. More drilling onshore PNG and offshore NZ.

Rem is a worry and I would like more rem tied to SP performance, production and milestones. HZN, IMO, is not a 1 or 2 bagger in the short to medium term but it could be 25-40% IF Tingu, Maari and Beibu all come to fruition. Management tend to be quite bullish on their prospects which is better than other oilers that seem downbeat.

Hope this finds you well.

Gaz

macduffy
06-02-2014, 07:56 AM
Not a lot of interest in HZN these days but CommSec like them!

http://globalmarketsresearch.commbank.com.au/ReportWeb/4aff0746-bdd7-4098-96d5-46177e5b2186/HorizonOilLimited-03-Feb-2014-1842-1.pdf

gazprom1
24-04-2014, 12:20 PM
HZN in a trading halt pending an announcement concerning a "potential material control transaction which is still under consideration". ROC entered into a trading halt also this morning but wording very vague (as is to be expected from their management). Looks likely it is ROC that is trying to potentially take control of HZN despite ROC having a considerably lower MCap. As a holder of both shares (but hold more ROC), I am not enthusiastic. Could be a script offer by ROC as certainly would not have the US$500m plus in cash to take out all of HZN.

It is interesting as management of ROC are typically conservative IMO and HZN has a fairly diversified asset portfolio and PNG is a large project that is going to require large capex.

Thoughts?

Gaz

gazprom1
24-04-2014, 12:21 PM
HZN in a trading halt pending an announcement concerning a "potential material control transaction which is still under consideration". ROC entered into a trading halt also this morning but wording very vague (as is to be expected from their management). Looks likely it is ROC that is trying to potentially take control of HZN despite ROC having a considerably lower MCap. As a holder of both shares (but hold more ROC), I am not enthusiastic. Could be a script offer by ROC as certainly would not have the US$500m plus in cash to take out all of HZN.

It is interesting as management of ROC are typically conservative IMO and HZN has a fairly diversified asset portfolio and PNG is a large project that is going to require large capex.

Thoughts?

Gaz

gazprom1
24-04-2014, 01:16 PM
...thinking further....ROC have two JV''s with HZN (Beibu and Bohai) in China that ROC could afford to buy from HZN and with the revenues from beibu would be able to finance Bohai Bay. That would leave HZn with mainly its PNG assets which could be then sold to a 3rd party. ROC does not have huge experience in gas mainly oil. That would be more pleasing IMO as HZN should attract a premium and ROC shareholders would not be diluted by a share issue.

Gaz

JBmurc
01-08-2014, 05:21 PM
Brought a nice parcel of HZN today 37c confident the merger will go ahead ..At current ROC SP ..HZN should be trading round 44c
some T/O offers on ROC but nothing material

Corporate
23-09-2014, 05:30 PM
JB, I'm not sure how you are position with HZN but they have been badly hit since the merger fell through. I don't think it is solely this, oiler are not the flavour of the month at the moment.

In any case I always closely watch HZN when it falls below <30cps.

How reliable do you think the Maari reserve figures are? HZN are recording 6mbo after years of production and some fairly aggressive decline rates.

For me the real value driver is ketu, elevate etc. and getting the gas and not just the condensate out of the ground.

JBmurc
23-09-2014, 07:18 PM
Na Corp Sold once it broke down to the low-mid 30's ...moved the funds into MCR

Crypto Crude
09-02-2015, 03:36 AM
wow check this out...
market cap 170 million dollars...
Future revenues of 5 billion dollars on sure thing developments...
plus many more growth projects in the future...
The valuation of HZNs stake in beibu gulf alone is worth $280 million dollars...
:cool:
.^sc

Joshuatree
09-02-2015, 06:57 AM
Is that figure of $188 million debt right?

Daytr
09-02-2015, 08:18 AM
wow check this out...
market cap 170 million dollars...
Future revenues of 5 billion dollars on sure thing developments...
plus many more growth projects in the future...
The valuation of HZNs stake in beibu gulf alone is worth $280 million dollars...
:cool:
.^sc

Off what price of oil? Cost of production ?

Crypto Crude
12-02-2015, 02:11 PM
daytr... with 2p + 2c of 95 million barrels equivalent just punch some numbers... that 2c is getting booked for development...
its abit presumtuious to use current oil prices... when prices settle hzn has $5 billion in future cashflows plus out reach drilling

Daytr
12-02-2015, 03:32 PM
I like the hedging!
Reasonable amount of debt $110M + potential of another $80M.
Is convertible just at the prevailing share price or does it have a strike?
Its quite a big dilution at the current SP.
And quite a bit of debt if not converted.

Joshuatree
12-02-2015, 05:16 PM
Down to 11.5c now . hasn't been this low since 2009 ,off a cliff. I can feel a prince song coming on. Too early for me to even consider an oiler.

skid
13-02-2015, 11:31 AM
Unfortunately its like swimming against the tide atm for most oilers---not like the good ole days

JBmurc
13-02-2015, 04:16 PM
Horizon hedges its bets
28 January 2015
ASIA-focused company Horizon Oil has finished out the December quarter in an enviable position, with its hedging leaving it with a strong cash balance and time to catch its breath.
At the end of the quarter the company had $US43.5 million ($A54.8 million) cash on hand and oil price hedges in place for more than 842,500 barrels of oil at an average price of $95 per barrel.
Also giving the junior reason to smile was its low operating costs of $20.78 per barrel on average, with this cost expected to be reduced further throughout 2015.
Operating income for calendar year 2014 was boosted by the high price per barrel received, coming to $91 million, up from $62 million in 2013.
Production for the December quarter was 306,349bbl, making for production revenue of $23.8 million.
The majority of production came from the Block 22/12 acreage in China’s Beibu Gulf which flowed an average of 9,887bbl per day.
The Maari/Manaia fields in New Zealand’s Taranaki Basin produced an average of 6,649bopd.
Horizon carried out a budget planning process during the quarter, resulting in a reduction in exploration and development expenditure for the year ahead to conserve capital.
The company intends to use the time instead to plan for development projects in China and PNG and wait for the lower development costs expected to flow on from the low oil price.
A value engineering review process has been started at the Stanley gas-condensate field in PNG.
The review is intended to ensure that project design, execution and timing are optimised and that cost estimates are in line with the current climate.
Elsewhere in PNG’s Western Province, the company has reported good progress on the Elevala/Ketu development plan for a mid-scale LNG project.
Development and pipeline applications are being reviewed along with the environmental impact statement for the project, while project selection has been extended by two months to ensure good cost estimates.
Perhaps the biggest recent news for the company in PNG however, was the announcement after the end of the December quarter that the PNG LNG joint venture partners had secured development and pipeline licences for the P’nyang field north of Stanley.
The proposed pipeline could offer Horizon an alternative route for commercialisation of its assets in the region through a potential gas aggregation project taking in the Stanley, Elevala/Tingu, Ketu, Ubuntu and P’nyang fields.

Corporate
14-02-2015, 09:38 PM
I'm down a decent amount on my 14c purchase, but with oil rising above $60 Horizon looks like a buying opportunity

Daytr
15-02-2015, 09:55 AM
Short term anything can happen.
Medium to long term, oil is in big, big trouble.
Gas producers may do ok as much lower emissions.
But the oil market is on the cusp of changing permanently imho.
Check out the peak oil thread

babymonster
15-02-2015, 02:03 PM
When is its HY report going to release? Anyone know?

Crypto Crude
17-02-2015, 11:26 AM
bought into hzn on open this morning..

Crypto Crude
26-02-2015, 10:28 PM
market cap of 160million...
wow...
current production of 4000 BOPD... 2019 16000 BOPD

2p +2c 100 MBOE
Before you even break down these immense reserves, just look at the Osaka deal...
the deal values HZNs PNG total asset value alone at $500 million US...
Maari was paid off in 2 years... we have a high hedged oil price...
China operations were successful in every way... I have never been involved in an oil development that came in under budget, on time, reserves and production exceeding expectations like with the Beibu gulf fields.....
We have PNG Mid scaled LNG project with PRL21
Stanely is going to be huge and we have all the necessary approvals for development...
HZN really is a standout company...
Its crashed with the oil price...
Even our JV partner in PRL21 (ketu Elevala), Kina petroleum has only fallen 10cents to now remain around 25c... However HZN has tanked hard...
So many years have passed and Horizon did start to show signs of true valuation during 2013, now its 2015 we are so much further ahead...

You just got to remember,
all the risk is out of HZN with the huge reserve base...
No small oil companies have triple digit millions of barrels of oil...
So while the deep selling continues one can only smile...

There is no justification for HZN falling from 40 cents to 12 cents when all operations are running at such a huge, and I add leveraged success... The future revenue streams are worth $5 billion

Its exciting to be alive and involved in this... and finally onboard...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude
12-03-2015, 04:03 PM
HZN has net tanglible assets of 49cents per share...
49 cents...
"The NTA/share value is used to determine, in theory, the money that each shareholder would receive if the company was forced into liquidation and all of the assets were sold at that point in time"

IF HORIZON TRIPLED IN MARKET VALUE IT WOULD STILL BE TRADING discount to NTA...
This is pure sickness...
:cool:
.^sc

JBmurc
12-03-2015, 04:20 PM
Horizon bucks trend, records profit
Wednesday, 25 February 2015
HORIZON Oil has bucked the widespread loss-making trend for the second half of 2014, recording an after tax profit of $US7.3 million ($A9.4 million).
The result compares with the Asia-focused explorer’s $47,000 loss for the last six months of 2013.
The turnaround was helped along by gross profits of $22.35 million taken from oil sales from Block 22/12 in China’s Beibu Gulf and the Maari and Manaia fields in New Zealand.
Crude sales in China amounted to 455,561 barrels of oil at an average price of $83.15 per barrel, executed under hedging agreements.
Hedging agreements were also responsible for keeping the company’s New Zealand sales at $98.10 per barrel, with sales covering 109,835bbl as the area delivered six months of full production following its shut-in period in the previous corresponding six months.
Exploration expenditure for the period came to $10.9 million as the company sought to find and add more reserves to its Beibu Gulf development and expand its knowledge of its PNG assets.
In particular, the explorer drilled and completed two development wells in its Stanley licence in PNG during the half-year.
The company has, however, announced that it is undertaking a value engineering review process over the project in light of the current oil price.
In addition, the company has extended its project selection duration in the Elevala/Ketu discoveries in the island nation to ensure cost estimates are in line with market conditions.
The company has been entertaining the idea of a Western Province-based greenfield mid-scale LNG project, however, the recent announcement by the PNG LNG partners that a pipeline might be built through the nearby P’nyang field has presented it with another possible opportunity.
The company, while still considering the Daru Island LNG project proposal as its base case, is also now entertaining the idea of aggregating gas from Stanley, Elevala/Ketu and Ubuntu into the pipeline to feed PNG LNG.
Another major occurrence for the company during the period was the failed merger with Roc Oil, which ended up receiving a superior offer from Chinese conglomerate Fosun International.
The merger was to create a leading Asian mid-cap exploration and production company.
Horizon reported cash on hand at the end of 2014 was $43.5 million.

http://www.pngindustrynews.net/Stor...r&utm_term=Horizon bucks trend records profit

Corporate
12-03-2015, 11:40 PM
I remember some weeks ago watching a interview with Brent (CEO). The interview was taken during the Signapore conference around the end of January and during the interview Brent stated they were also taking the opportunity to meet with IMC while in Asia.

Since then IMC has started to increase their stake in the company, from 319,695,688 (or 24.57%) to 366,495,688 (or 28%) within two months.

I can only assume from this that IMC were satisfied with the meeting, are comfortable with the liquidity position and have therefore decided this is a great buying opportunity.

DYOR

skid
13-03-2015, 07:48 AM
Just be aware that outside factors play a far greater role than a few years ago--Some companies are intentionally not completing wells to store the oil in the ground-storage in the states is almost full-even with these great numbers,it could be a waiting game.

Crypto Crude
17-03-2015, 09:06 PM
Just be aware that outside factors play a far greater role than a few years ago--Some companies are intentionally not completing wells to store the oil in the ground-storage in the states is almost full-even with these great numbers,it could be a waiting game.

for sure, outside factors play a greater role than from October last year... HZN has held up fine with fresh 6 years lows in oil...
I cant see Horizon falling much unless there is a total collapse of oil, and regardless if that happens horizon will be far better positioned on the next leg up... which happens
:cool:
.^sc

Penfold
23-03-2015, 07:23 PM
Spent a couple of hours on this one last weekend. Seems to have the balance sheet and cash flows to weather this storm. Level seems like value, so bought in today.

Was some talk in the Aussie papers earlier this month there there is likely to be some M&A in this industry in Aussie this year. Fingers crossed this gets snapped up like ROC, who had a similar portfolio.

Hopefully I am right. I really like money.

Crypto Crude
24-03-2015, 01:19 AM
penfold, what a cool cat....
I just cant work it out why horizon still trades at biblical discount to all valuations including asset backing, and income projections, and insto values...
some discount perhaps but a total meltdown of hzn has presented a pretty sick proposition to be a buyer... this reeks 1 bagger easy...

skid
24-03-2015, 10:25 AM
Its because you have found a great company in a sick market (of Biblical proportions)--One hopes it will turn but patience would have paid off IMO

Crypto Crude
28-04-2015, 12:02 AM
I love horizon like the best conventional stock ive ever seen period;..
but things are happening in the oil markets and I move funds to where things ARE happening... im out breakeven... dissapointed in the first run up to 14 cents because this is worth at least 35cents off current info...
I will be back in hopefully soon
:cool:
^sc

Corporate
28-04-2015, 01:11 AM
I love horizon like the best conventional stock ive ever seen period;..
but things are happening in the oil markets and I move funds to where things ARE happening... im out breakeven... dissapointed in the first run up to 14 cents because this is worth at least 35cents off current info...
I will be back in hopefully soon
:cool:
^sc

Each to their own SC I hope you have poured your proceeds into another company with as much potential upside.

I expect the quarterly to come out - with no surprises - which will see the share price recover.

Crypto Crude
29-04-2015, 12:01 AM
Each to their own SC I hope you have poured your proceeds into another company with as much potential upside.

I expect the quarterly to come out - with no surprises - which will see the share price recover.

I pray so corporate,
yesterday I put it in BRU to make my biggest investment ever...
and the news out wow... im hoping to get it back in a few weeks/months,,,
because I want to put it back with more shares in horizon...

horizon is past being incredible...
I missed RLE recently...
SXY... saw akk at 2cents its got things going,,,
and just took a chance and its about to pay off....

NZSilver
29-04-2015, 07:11 AM
Hi guys,

Mcap 150 mil approx,
Debt 200 mil approx.

What's the consequences of having debt that is greater than the mcap of the company?

Seems cheap when compare mcap w profit/revenue/production

Also hedging gives good income stream with current low oil prices

Crypto Crude
05-05-2015, 07:22 PM
Hi guys,

Mcap 150 mil approx,
Debt 200 mil approx.

What's the consequences of having debt that is greater than the mcap of the company?

Seems cheap when compare mcap w profit/revenue/production

Also hedging gives good income stream with current low oil prices

silver I think its fine with a future revenue stream 25 times of current debt levels///
I recently got out of horizon for buru but I wish to be back in asap
:cool:
.^sc

Corporate
05-05-2015, 11:46 PM
silver I think its fine with a future revenue stream 25 times of current debt levels///
I recently got out of horizon for buru but I wish to be back in asap
:cool:
.^sc

Do it soon Shrewd. WTI just hit US$60 and Brent is at US$67

Joshuatree
06-05-2015, 07:29 AM
According to your disclosure on another site yest, Shrewd you hold HZN< BRU< BUL< NWE< KEY. Maybe bring things up to date.;)

Crypto Crude
08-05-2015, 09:46 AM
lol joshua.. i will have to update it... I really want back in horizon but looking to hold buru for at least the next month

skid
08-05-2015, 03:55 PM
Certainly a good decision chartwise

Joshuatree
31-05-2015, 01:11 PM
10c now. A suggestion that CBA selldown is complete and refinancing imminent. Watching tomorrow for poss spec entry with my small allocation of disposable funds for trading.

Joshuatree
02-06-2015, 10:34 PM
CBA still have plenty left to sell as does another big holder. So no rush imo.A spekky.

Joshuatree
03-06-2015, 04:30 PM
Take your pick; the world has a big correction and oil crashes back down or our world muddles along and oil stays here or edges higher. If the 2nd scenario fits ,HZN could be worth some research (and many others ;take your pick)..

http://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content...alysis-Special-Edition-on-HZN-20-May-2015.pdf (http://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/StockAnalysis-Special-Edition-on-HZN-20-May-2015.pdf)

babymonster
03-06-2015, 07:57 PM
Take your pick; the world has a big correction and oil crashes back down or our world muddles along and oil stays here or edges higher. If the 2nd scenario fits ,HZN could be worth some research (and many others ;take your pick)..

http://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content...alysis-Special-Edition-on-HZN-20-May-2015.pdf (http://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/StockAnalysis-Special-Edition-on-HZN-20-May-2015.pdf)

It assumes the poo is $100, which is unlikely for the next two years. But if it came up with 0.47 valuation with poo $100, does it mean hzn should be around 0.235 with poo $50.. I will be happy with 23c :)

digger
04-06-2015, 09:43 AM
It assumes the poo is $100, which is unlikely for the next two years. But if it came up with 0.47 valuation with poo $100, does it mean hzn should be around 0.235 with poo $50.. I will be happy with 23c :)


No it dosen't because the POO and the S/P are linked closer to the by the exponential function than the linear one. As an example if the POO went to 200 the S/P would certainly more than double from a 47 valuation. It would probably go up 4 times as suggested by the exponential function.

babymonster
04-06-2015, 06:01 PM
the support was broken today... Sigh! :(

Joshuatree
05-06-2015, 10:32 PM
Staying away, the debt is got them pinned and shorters look for these distressed stocks.Plus the big sell down continues by the looks from CBA and Tribecca also mentioned.

Penfold
20-07-2015, 11:00 AM
Maybe some hope for Horizon (and me).

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/7/16/mergers-acquisitions/horizon-oil-seen-takeover-radar

digger
03-01-2017, 08:05 PM
Anybody got any thoughts on why HZN has almost doubled in the last month?

JBmurc
03-01-2017, 10:27 PM
Anybody got any thoughts on why HZN has almost doubled in the last month?

Much brighter oil price outlook must be the major driver that and it was well over sold

digger
04-01-2017, 05:50 AM
Much brighter oil price outlook must be the major driver that and it was well over sold

Thanks but the brighter oil price should also be impacting all oil companies but it is not to this extent. I am wondering if it is in somebodies sight for takeover.

babymonster
04-01-2017, 12:29 PM
Hard to tell, might be just instos relocating funds into resources stocks. TO has been a rumor for a long time but cannot see the major holder will sell it.

gazprom1
04-01-2017, 12:56 PM
Thanks but the brighter oil price should also be impacting all oil companies but it is not to this extent. I am wondering if it is in somebodies sight for takeover.

Hey Digger

Happy New Year.

You probably know better than most. I do think that the OP has got a lot to do with the rise in the share price - look at the likes of BPT. BPT is up around 150% from its lows and is a low cost producer as is HZN. Also, I think the redeeming of the convertible note takes away some funding uncertainty. HZNs production profile looks pretty good and has solid hedges in place.

Gaz

upside_umop
12-05-2018, 02:27 AM
Hey Digger

Happy New Year.

You probably know better than most. I do think that the OP has got a lot to do with the rise in the share price - look at the likes of BPT. BPT is up around 150% from its lows and is a low cost producer as is HZN. Also, I think the redeeming of the convertible note takes away some funding uncertainty. HZNs production profile looks pretty good and has solid hedges in place.

Gaz

Gidday Gaz,

Are you still holding in here? HZN has a lot going for it. I've been averaging up since my first purchase at 4.2 cents and it now makes up > 50% of my portfolio which is a little scary!

Since the last posts on here, a few things have happened for HZN:

- HZN acquired Todd's 16% stake in Maari oil field, adding to their 10% already held (HZN interest post acquisition 26%). They obtained this for $17.6m USD in Nov-17 with effective transaction date 1st January 2018. With strengthened oil prices, the payback from cashflows is now well under 12 months...
- PNG aggregation and rationalisation of acreage. HZN has been instrumental in driving forward their "Western LNG" scheme and acquired certain acerage on the cheap and swapped portions of their own interests for adjacent permits to ensure they are represented across all permits that would comprise the WLNG. Total 2C resources are between 110m - 140m BOE! Using look through values from the Osaka gas transaction of $3.84 boe, it implied project value for our stake of $430m to $540m USD....yes, that's around 30 - 40 cents per share on it's own. PNG is heating up, Brent is winding down as CEO (although still a significant shareholder) and I understand HZN would be willing to sell reduce or outright sell their interest at FID stage, cementing value.
- Strong cashflows enabling repayment of debt (c. $26m USD last calendar year). Operating cashflows are currently running at around $20m per quarter.
- Reducing hedging exposure at the right time - no new hedging added in the last 5 months but do have some outstanding hedges into Mar-19 at $59 a bbl representing c. 35% of production (by my estimates).
- Beibu and Maari workovers maintaining and even increasing oil production.
- Beibu incremental development plan for WZ-12-8E

HZN is still undervalued relative to peers on a number of metrics such as EV/EBITDAX, EV/Flowing BOPD and DCF / look through values. Current share price of c. 15 cents reflects Maari and Beibu but not much else (maybe not even that at current POO).

Joshuatree
12-05-2018, 09:58 AM
Thanks for sharing your research and opinion UU. With the rising price of energy , share prices look to be lagging on stocks like Horizon ,offering opps.

bermuda
12-05-2018, 10:38 PM
Hi Guys,
Always liked Horizon. Best of luck.

gazprom1
13-05-2018, 09:22 AM
Gidday Gaz,

Are you still holding in here? HZN has a lot going for it. I've been averaging up since my first purchase at 4.2 cents and it now makes up > 50% of my portfolio which is a little scary!

Since the last posts on here, a few things have happened for HZN:

- HZN acquired Todd's 16% stake in Maari oil field, adding to their 10% already held (HZN interest post acquisition 26%). They obtained this for $17.6m USD in Nov-17 with effective transaction date 1st January 2018. With strengthened oil prices, the payback from cashflows is now well under 12 months...
- PNG aggregation and rationalisation of acreage. HZN has been instrumental in driving forward their "Western LNG" scheme and acquired certain acerage on the cheap and swapped portions of their own interests for adjacent permits to ensure they are represented across all permits that would comprise the WLNG. Total 2C resources are between 110m - 140m BOE! Using look through values from the Osaka gas transaction of $3.84 boe, it implied project value for our stake of $430m to $540m USD....yes, that's around 30 - 40 cents per share on it's own. PNG is heating up, Brent is winding down as CEO (although still a significant shareholder) and I understand HZN would be willing to sell reduce or outright sell their interest at FID stage, cementing value.
- Strong cashflows enabling repayment of debt (c. $26m USD last calendar year). Operating cashflows are currently running at around $20m per quarter.
- Reducing hedging exposure at the right time - no new hedging added in the last 5 months but do have some outstanding hedges into Mar-19 at $59 a bbl representing c. 35% of production (by my estimates).
- Beibu and Maari workovers maintaining and even increasing oil production.
- Beibu incremental development plan for WZ-12-8E

HZN is still undervalued relative to peers on a number of metrics such as EV/EBITDAX, EV/Flowing BOPD and DCF / look through values. Current share price of c. 15 cents reflects Maari and Beibu but not much else (maybe not even that at current POO).

Hey UU,

Great work on your investment in HZN. I am out and have made good money on HZN. I wish that I had bought back in. I was not confident enough in the way the company was being financed and thought it might end up being manipulated by the largest shareholder. POO has come good and HZN has made some excellent decisions (Maari oil field being one of them). SP took a bit of a correction regarding the news on that one PNG lease where the JVs have a meeting with the minister. One would hope this can be sorted out quickly. Development plan for Beibu should add lots of oil going forward at a relatively low cost base.

I remember years and years ago when HZN dropped from mid 30's to around 10 cents and there was a cap raising at 10 cents. Went in boots and all to average down to just below 13 cents. She then boomed again into the late 30s but I was out between 25 and 35 cents. No reason why with the projects they have on the go and oil at current prices why it can't move back towards the 30 cent mark.

I own a couple of small cap oilers that are doing ok. Made some good money on BPT but sold too early....but you can never sell at the top. POO is way too difficult to guess.

Good luck and I am following the stock closely.

Cheers
Gaz

upside_umop
14-05-2018, 12:39 AM
Gidday Gaz,

It did look like HZN may have been a casualty of the oil downturn there for a while. As you say, IMC did well out of the financing arrangements / 300m options at 6 cents but in hindsight it still would have been difficult to do it any other way.

PRL10 issues - good point. The first announcement released was very unclear and I was little frustrated. The subsequent announcement cleared things up for me and I do believe we should come to a good result (eventually!) in PNG. It's been a while coming, however with a large economic resource and the PNG government wanting commercialisation, things could start moving a bit sooner.

HZN hasn't been the type of stock to put in the bottom drawer unfortunately but I don't believe any oil stock has been over the last few years....maybe except BPT (lucky you!). Will it be a bottom drawer stock now? If PNG comes through, yes...this is where the value is at but purely based on Maari and Beibu the leverage is getting exhausted here without firm drilling to increase the reserves base. In saying that, with LNG being oil price linked and a number of commentators suggesting this link will have to break (upwards?), oil price assists the PNG average a lot too.

I believe HZN is more of a "hold" for me now rather than adding anymore to position - last buy at 10.5 cents (which was difficult enough to pull the trigger). May swap a few to rebalance if we hit the 20's shortly.

Latest analyst report (APP) presents a base case of 30 cents per share (https://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/app-securities-hzn_30_apr_2018.pdf). This is using Brent forward price curve (which looks very bearish!) and US $0.45 cents per MCF for PNG. Bull case rises to 45 cents per share largely based on valuing PNG resource valued at US $0.60 per MCF. A Repsol transaction this year (?) will provide an timely look-through value for us / market.

Another analyst report (Euroz) shows a target based on an EBITDA multiple. (https://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/euroz_1mar18-initiation.pdf) I fundamentally disagree with this methodology for HZN given it largely relies on Maari / Beibu and doesn't consider PNG appropriately. Still, it's higher than the current share price so shouldn't complain too much.

What other small cap oilers are you in these days? It would be good to bring the ASX threads back to their glory days - I do miss the contributors but understandable it's been quiet with the performance over the last few years...

babymonster
14-05-2018, 08:08 AM
i am holding HZN, OEL and ATS, and SEA as well.. HZN average price is 7c, so trimmed a bit a 15c but still holding some.. OEL same, average 4c and trimmed a bit 7c which is way to early... ATS is a recent hold and not very liquid stock, good potential tho. SEA was a dog, very risky with among of debt and past history of the management. among these one, HZN is the best, fingers crossed with the PNG development.

gazprom1
15-05-2018, 09:33 AM
Gidday Gaz,

It did look like HZN may have been a casualty of the oil downturn there for a while. As you say, IMC did well out of the financing arrangements / 300m options at 6 cents but in hindsight it still would have been difficult to do it any other way.

PRL10 issues - good point. The first announcement released was very unclear and I was little frustrated. The subsequent announcement cleared things up for me and I do believe we should come to a good result (eventually!) in PNG. It's been a while coming, however with a large economic resource and the PNG government wanting commercialisation, things could start moving a bit sooner.

HZN hasn't been the type of stock to put in the bottom drawer unfortunately but I don't believe any oil stock has been over the last few years....maybe except BPT (lucky you!). Will it be a bottom drawer stock now? If PNG comes through, yes...this is where the value is at but purely based on Maari and Beibu the leverage is getting exhausted here without firm drilling to increase the reserves base. In saying that, with LNG being oil price linked and a number of commentators suggesting this link will have to break (upwards?), oil price assists the PNG average a lot too.

I believe HZN is more of a "hold" for me now rather than adding anymore to position - last buy at 10.5 cents (which was difficult enough to pull the trigger). May swap a few to rebalance if we hit the 20's shortly.

Latest analyst report (APP) presents a base case of 30 cents per share (https://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/app-securities-hzn_30_apr_2018.pdf). This is using Brent forward price curve (which looks very bearish!) and US $0.45 cents per MCF for PNG. Bull case rises to 45 cents per share largely based on valuing PNG resource valued at US $0.60 per MCF. A Repsol transaction this year (?) will provide an timely look-through value for us / market.

Another analyst report (Euroz) shows a target based on an EBITDA multiple. (https://horizonoil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/euroz_1mar18-initiation.pdf) I fundamentally disagree with this methodology for HZN given it largely relies on Maari / Beibu and doesn't consider PNG appropriately. Still, it's higher than the current share price so shouldn't complain too much.

What other small cap oilers are you in these days? It would be good to bring the ASX threads back to their glory days - I do miss the contributors but understandable it's been quiet with the performance over the last few years...

Hey UU,

HZn looks really solid with diverse revenue streams and plenty of upside in PNG and China. The forum has been very quiet due to the market downturn. I was smashed in TAP and it is a disaster zone there. Risco and Northern Gulf control it and there has been an on market offer at 7 cents. Owes me 13 cents after averaging down. TAP is a bit of one trick pony but has some drilling commencing this week. Not holding my breath. Current price is 7.3 cents.

I am heavily invested in FAR and have a decent paper profit at the current price of 9.8 cents. The major issue with FAR is that there are thousands of retail investors and seems to get shorted a lot. SNE development is going to FID this year and first oil probably 2022. Management are solid. Big drill this year in the Gambia fully funded by Petronas....huge prospect on trend with SNE. Downisde limited due to SNE. Funding for SNE the only real big question but they are looking at JV financing for some and debt/ equity for the rest.

Feeling like I missed a trick with BPT - sold at $1.40 and now is $1.76. Has the potential to go higher in the current oil price environment.

Also have bought into AJQ. Have reservations again about the funding provided by DGR. They finally have revenues flowing in and ramping up production. They are providing gas to that lucrative Queensland market. Taped the government for $6mn which is great. Possibly going to add to my position....???

During the downturn was a bit discouraged so decided to invest in an aussie fund called Ophir High Conviction. Have you heard of them? They invest in a portfolio of 15 to 30 stocks. They have another fund which was closed but has done very well over the past 6 years - something greater than 25%pa. I think the High Conviction is now closed to new investors. I am up around 17% for 7 months so really solid. I would take 17%pa compounding for the next 10 years!!!!

If you have any investment ideas, I am open to suggestions. I have invested too much in FLC (Fluence). Love the environmental benefits and the solutions they provide in the water space but are certainly unloved. Under water (no pun intended) but believe the downside is protected mostly due to revenues and forward orders. It is a core holding and if they can get some traction in China (where they have manufacturing and partnerships) it could go anywhere.

Cheers
Gaz