General Chit-Chat

[arco]

Good Morning All

Xerof
Please keep us posted on your test of
the Black Swan subscription.

Many thanks

arco

[Xerof]

Roger wilco

[Xerof]

More ammo for USD bulls - Armagedon appears imminent

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/a4e9810819d3651/bsccc070605.pdf

Xerof

[Xerof]

quote:Cannon to right of him,
Cannon to left of him,
Cannon in front of him
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly he rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode Warren Buffett.


:D:D

[miner]

The commander's place is not back with his staff but up with the troops...In moments of panic,fatigue or disorganization,or when something out of the ordinary has to be demanded from them,the personal example of the commander works wonders,especially if he has had the wit to create some sort of legend around himself.

Well you boys have been using war analogies,quotes,so thought chuck one in that I read this week hehe,500 pips to the one that knows who said it.

[Xerof]

Rommel dear boy:D:D

[Xerof]

Hmmm 500 piparoonies - nice - and I only deal in 10 mill lots too. Shall I post my settlement instructions?


[:p][:p]

[miner]

Smart cookie ay Xerof[8D],the question now is what sort of pips do you want? pear apple or some off my nice lemon tree out the front?,let me know and your mailing address and I will send them ASAP;).

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Good Morning All

A few minutes before I get the EOD Forex data,
so in this time I will mention Charity Book Fairs.

I have recently purchased at minimal expense some
very interesting trading/business books - all in
very good condition.

"Bob Jones on Property" - old but very pertinent even in
todays market. (Actually rare and worth $35 S/H)

"How to make money in Stocks" (CANSLIM method) - William O'Neill

"The Electronic Trading of Options" - Abell

"The Rise Fall and Flight of Brierly Investments" - Williams.

"Marketing Warfare"- Ries/Trout

"Location Location" - Michael Boulgaris

Amazing Value - the whole lot - only $10.

So IMO, well worth checking out your local
charity book fairs, collect a few books
and increase your trading knowledge.

In the past I have also picked up books on our dear friend
Warren Buffett....I think they were 50c.....sorry Warren you're
not worth very much secondhand. ;)

Now to download.

[Xerof]

Miner, I hear pips quite a nice lass - ahem, what about a motel address instead of residential[}:)][}:)]

[Xerof]

Arco, speaking of your friend Warren, have you placed your bid for the charity lunch with him? I hear the current high bid is US250k, with choice of Omaha or NYK for food and drinkies. Thats around 2k per mouthful and slurp, assuming the standard burger and fries, and a bottle of Muller Thurgau each

Personally I won't be bidding, and I do wonder if the charity is actually Berkshire[}:)][}:)]

Xerof

[miner]

Yuk few spinny tops on last hourly[V];)

[miner]

Explosions in London's underground,friend just said was on TV,explains the moves?.

[miner]

A few close calls,one was on the train behind,one just got out of the subway,and another had her appointment cancelled or she would have been right in the middle of it all,lucky.

[arco]

Black Swan today........interesting

“As US interest rates continue to rise and the dollar strengthens, the hot money that flowed into Asia on the back of Rmb revaluation may have started to leave. I estimate the total amount of hot money at around US$700 billion. Such a reversal could have a major impact on Asian asset prices.” Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley.

More here...............

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/0270d4fa652f9db/bsccc070705.pdf

[arco]

Good Morning All

I closed all my positions off on Friday evening,
except for leaving a long order in place just above
the action in CAD.

Unfortunately the loonie dropped further so that was
not triggered, therefore starting off the week with a
clean slate.

[miner]

How old do you have to be to get meals on wheels[?][B)];)

[Xerof]

Miner, are you alluding to Arco's magnificent achievement of making 4000 posts, or can't you get yourself away from the screen to eat.

0800 838383 used to be good for a pizza meal on wheels, but could try 0800gotohell, for a hot little number

cheers

Xerof

[miner]

Eat in front of the screen[8)],cooking it is the tricky bit,but got it sussed for tomorrow night as made a one pot brew tonight,so just heat her back up for dindins tomorrow:D[8D];).

As for Arco's 4000 hadn't noticed,good on ya Arco 4000 quality posts[^].

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

one word - microwave... [:p]

buttered chicken on basmati rice in 7 minutes....

after reading on MACD over the weekend I'm seeing negative divergence everywhere....
time for the Euro to start falling soon..

[miner]

Have to start a traders cooking tips thread Peat:D,as for the EUR out of the 4 pairs I watch eur/jpy has the tidiest looking daily's and did zip on bomb night so am watching that for the lead,through .35 today see if holds above.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

My account is looking a little less healthy with Euro and Kiwi at these levels... :(
Trying to put a brave face on it and maybe add some more higher... tho my flexibility in this only goes so far.

My MACD analysis over the weekend kinda warned me that this might happen with dailys and 4 hourly's looking bullish , tho weeklys are still down. So will ride it for now.
Arco - dont say I told you so

[miner]

!@#$%^&%$# power cuts[V]:(

[peat]

Bailed out of everything - did try the staggered approach both in and out but this steamroller mowed me down. 2/3rds of profits gone. A sad day in my forex history, breaking mm rules is bad.
But I do live to trade again, and not quite from scratch.Will ponder about the lessons learned, regroup and be back. Hopefully I'll be smarter.

[miner]

Well the #$@^%$# power just came back on:(,but at least still in my trade and up 90 odd pips:D.

[miner]

Missed a good mornings trading I see,bugger[B)]

[zyreon]

hey all just been playin around with the oanda "game account" for a couple of weeks - trying to get some free training/practise .

I just discovered one of the features on it before - the stop loss adjustment; when you set your stop it shows as a horizontal red line on the chart, when you want to adjust the stop you right click the line and u can move it up and down - so it's good for being able to position it above/below any obvious areas of support/resistance.

[miner]

That sounds handy Zyreon[8D],as for me had to house sit for a mate last few nights so couldn't play FX,but will be back on the front lines next week;),hope you all had an ok week on the battle field:D.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

yeh the oanda game is pretty cool - portability plus!

[miner]

Peat Re your eur/usd post,have you tried reading nothing at all (no outside thoughts numbers) and just trading off your screens.

I call it isolation trading[8)],works ok for me,not that I'm doing it now as just wrote this[B)];).

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

Thats a good suggestion - I might work with that!
Also I think that last weeks events is driving the way forward for me to develop my own views and act on those. Frankly, I havent been too good at that and have been strongly influenced by others. And it done well for a while but its not sustainable or even always appropriate. I guess I just figured that in my first year of trading I needed all the assistance I could get.

[zyreon]

in your first year of trading what you really need is an immutable position sizing system and exit strategy.

(i.e. cutting losses)

remember - the first years' goal is -survival-

I still have about 5 months to go before i clock in a whole year... so far I'm surviving - came close to the brink trading NYSE CFDs but then realised I suck at equity trading and made money on just about all my forex trades. have managed to claw my way back with subsequent forex trades, but I forcast break even wont occur for another few months yet.

in any event the practical experience has been invaluable for my BBS studies

[miner]

Yep Zyreon stops for sure,putting a stop on is the first thing I do after I buy,also think try things find what works for you,I tried something new the other week and it's working well[8D].

Screen time as with shares has allot to do with it also.

CD on relaxed,empty mind and first thought trade hehe;).

O-Yeah and make dindins now while paint in drying:D.

[slam]

waiting waiting.
This market needs an enema
May need to change my sleeping habits so I can stay up all night and sleep through the day while the markets doing the same.

[peat]

yeh totally
pretty hard to turn a buck in a market like this....
to you more experienced traders - is this usual or what?

[slam]

Hi Pete
Not that I'm an experienced trader, but the hard part about trading when the market is like this, is the daily swings (or should I say nightly)
If you are unsure as to which is the next move, but act on gut etc, your stops have to be wide to absorb the over night stuff. I lost allot of pips in the start from setting stops to tight. Look in the morn only to find I've been taken out and the pair moved back to where I was in the first place or better.
Motto now, Stay out until you have a definite position and the mind set that you are right. That way you don't waste pips trying to second guess small moves.

Guess it depends on your length of trade.

[miner]

Patience is the trick wait for the trade,until then I'm reading a good book with half an eye on the screen.

[Xerof]

Gidday guys,

set your charts up across all timeframes, and look for all the contracting triangles. We are in consolidation mode, waiting for breakouts, i.e. momentum trades. The swing trades are out the door for a while, at least until we get some trends going again.

Historically late July/ most of August are usually deadly dull, as summer holidays in Europe, and USA tends not to bother as well.

So get your triangles sorted out, and leave stop entries above and below, to catch the next moves, or play each side of the ranges with tight stop and reverse.

Of course these breakouts can occur any time, so still need to screen watch if not prepared to leave orders outside of ranges.

Just finished reading Da Vinci Code, to relieve the boredom - not a bad read.....

cheers

Xerof

[peat]

cant stay up all nite watching these gyrations :(
markets being a ***** in my aggravated opinion

[zyreon]

lol yeah, like a fricken rubber ball

[Xerof]

Look forward to seeing you back after you've had a chance to rehydrate those butterflies, bats and spiders ARCO [8D][8D]

Spotted you over on TT[^][^]

Nice trip??



regards

Xerof

[arco]

Hello Xerof

Yep, need to get the brain back into gear and
the nets back in action. Could take some time
I reckon [8D]

arco

[Xerof]

quote:It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up - Muhammad Ali

The same might be said of Central banks for the meantime.

A lot of techies have revisited their tealeaves this morning and have turned bearish the USD....a bit late... 12255 was the key level for EUR as an example. 12497 is a 50% fib level

I note a rather large iridashi issue announced last night for NZD 1.43BILLION, and a 150m Eurokiwi as well - OFFFFFF the sell order!

6998 is another key fib level, as well as trendline resistance

with NFP tonight I have a clean slate and will stay out

Good weekend to all

Xerof

[peat]

i been in touch with a lady economist at Jyskebank in Denmark and she reckons Kiwi is on its way to 0.7150

[peat]

everyone gone and died?
i been flat for a while now tho...
i need to be more careful with my next trades and this market is very difficult to predict it seems , constantly changing direction , no clear trends etc...

[slam]

Hi Peat
Still here;)
Currently long GBP/USD, NZD/USD
have been for a while.
I just hold wider stops in times like these, but if you look at the hourly to daily charts, direction is still there for quite a few pairs.
next reversal for the above 2 is close imo

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Take a look at eur/jpy hourly from this mornings daily change,lucky I was out and about today[B)],the old sideways ****e after the run now usual stuff,other pairs I watch and this one don't know whether they are Arthur or Martha lately[|)];).

[Xerof]

Still here Peat, but not a lot to talk about for the moment.

As you say miner, its Arthur and Martha trying to decide their bent...

and its August, which is renowned for slow sloppy markets with stop hunts the only game in town

Best not to declare your hand if in:D:D

cheers guys

Xerof

[slam]

Morning All
The tide is a turning on the USD crosses me thinks.
Looking for shorts to establish on peaks atm.
Anyone else have an opinion?

Cheers
Slam

[Xerof]

Yeah Slam, looks like a corrective move for most pairs is in play - only corrective for me at the moment though, but see what develops. First targets:

Kiwi 7010 ish
Eur 1.2285 ish
Gbp 1.80 ish

Xerof

sold a bit of GBP this morning as it broke out of a triangle, Eur has done the same. Kiwi simply needs a retracement from o/b status

[arco]

Morning All

I'm slightly out of touch.

My main computers power supply burnt out last week
taking the motherboard, etc with it. (The data was
safely backed up on a detachable drive - fortunately)

Insurance are sorting out the mess, but I am still
without the main system and working on my laptop
(which doesnt have all my chart sets). Hopefully
I should get the main computer up and running today.

Anyway for now I am short AUD.USD and long USD.CHF

arco

PS. Xerof
Hows your Blackswan trial going ?

[Xerof]

Welcome back Arco,

sorry to hear of your computer woes - but enjoy the lap(top) dancing whilst you have the opportunity:D:D

Re Black Swan - quite good - their trade recommendations are consistently profitable overall, but the problem is that most, if not all, their entry alerts arrive during NYK time zone, so are IMO rendered useless for my purposes. But I'm sticking with them, at least in the short term as some of their research, available in the members area of the website, is very helpful.

Is it worth the US99 p/mth? - probably not for our time zone, but useful enough for contextual purposes

Xerof

[willy the plunger]

Xerof
hoping you can help me.

I intend opening an account with a forex broker.

for a NZ citizen what in your opinion would be the best currency to base the account on. USD, or is there a better choice?


WTP

[Xerof]

Greetings WtP,

I have my account in NZD, as its my home currency.

I originally opened my account when NZD/USD was in the mid 50 cents range, and I didn't want to be selling NZD at those levels, to fund a USD account, so that was probably the biggest influence on my decision.

Right now with NZD at 70, you possibly have the luxury of being more comfortable with having your trading capital in another currency, and waiting for the next major downcycle to convert it back.

Saxobank is my preferred trading platform, and they seem to have the most options available for base currencies - about 20 to choose from.
A lot of platforms restrict your choice of base currencies anyway, so shop around first to see what your options are.

Downside to having NZD as the base account currency is that they convert profits/losses with a 5% margin, so there is a constant cost of conversion of your trading activities.

But this applies to any profits/losses made in other 'non-base' currencies, so it may also depend on which curreny pairs you are trading, e.g. if all you do is EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD, then a USD account might be preferable (as all profits/losses 'fall out' as USD so there is no conversion of p/l required)

Also, it is no hassle to open new accounts in another base currency, so you can have the flexibility of moving your capital in and out of various currencies as you see fit.

Hope this assists


Xerof

[Xerof]

quote:posted 16/8 looks like a corrective move for most pairs is in play - only corrective for me at the moment though, but see what develops. First targets:

Kiwi 7010 ish
Eur 1.2285 ish
Gbp 1.80 ish



pretty much reached these targets - decision time as to whether these are turning points now - hmmmm - watching and waiting at this stage

fwiw, NZD is at apex of a triangle but sitting on 50% fib in 180 and 240 min charts, and resting on upward trendline on daily chart, so guess next 30 pip move will decide fate

Xerof

[Lizard]

Where have all the Forex people gone this week?

[willy the plunger]

Xerof
Thanking you for your comprehensive reply, very helpful.

I am trying to get my head around 'margin'requirements.If possible, can you explain it to me in laymans terms.I will be opening an account with about $20,000 initially.Any advise you can give will be of help.
Thanks WTP

[Xerof]

Lizard, its August - the market movers have a month out, so its usually a dangerous place to be - stop hunting is all that seems to go on - I personally try to stay out of it until September

Willy t

Depends on which platform you choose, but the margin requirement can be anywhere between 20 to 400 to 1. I use 50 to 1 margin, which means if you take a position for 100,000 NZD/USD, your platform will set aside a margin of 2,000 out of your capital funds, until you close out the position. Your margin is returned to your capital account when you close a trade out, and they then simply either deduct the actual loss of the trade, or add the profit.

Margins for each currency pair differ and you can usually find a list of what is used for individual pairs on the platform under 'trading conditions' or some similar heading. For example to trade the DKK/ZAR requires 8% margin:D:D and good luck with that one;);)

Note that most trading platforms double, perhaps more, the usual margin requirements over the weekend, if you retain open trades during this time.

With a 20k deposit, you can probably comfortably trade 100k lots for most pairs, without too much distress, but remember to use good money management practices (I personally limit my losses to 2% of total capital for any single trade, and look to make 4% to 8% on short term trades)

Long term trades are different - still limit to 2% initially, then trailing stop - profit targets not set


But to answer your actual question - the margin requirement is your passport to trade - i.e if the counterparty doesn't have a cash amount to cover potential losses you may make on trades, they don't want to trade with you...

Xerof

[arco]

Morning All

Lizard
If you want some forex action head over to the TT
forum, - certainly more posting going on there.

arco

[zyreon]

there's a constant flow at the oanda forums too

actually some insightful comments from time to time

[peat]

i been too busy with work life and love to stay on top of everything lately....

but I'm still here;)

[Lizard]

Well it's nice to see y'all. :)

I'm not a player, but I enjoy watching the action and learning how it's done.

Cheers,
Liz

[peat]

FX
No Better than tossig a coin ?? :+)))
http://www.abnamrocraigs.com/pdfs/EO290805.pdf

[arco]

Peat.

There are many charting methods that work extremly well
on FX (and equities). In skilled hands they will predict
outcomes correctly more times than incorectly.

Back to tossing the Monarchs :D

arco

[miner]

Evening chaps,after some help on the easiest and "cheapest" way to get pounds from some English friends into NZ dollars and my bank account.

This is not a one off payment but will be ongoing hence my question as getting scr*wed by your bank:( once to exchange money is bad enough but more than once well that's just not cricket:D;).

Any help would be great,ta.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

Western Union?

[slam]

Hi Miner

Deposite into your forex account with a visa card[?];)
Just a thought
Hope all is going well

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Xerof

I notice Black Swan are advertising their
Hypothetical Track Record 29 Jun '04 thru 12 Aug '05

Total Trades 213
# of winning trades 104
# of losing trades 106
# of Breakeven trades 3
Total PIPs* 3,258
Avg PIPs per Month* 231
Total Profit $'s 31,709
Avg Winner $'s 820
Avg Loser $'s (505)
Max Drawdown $(6,082)

Not a good score - average 53 pips pw - hypothetically.
In reality perhaps 20-30 pips per week if you consider
other factors.

arco

[peat]

yes the Danes give a very transparent indication of their 'return' with their portfolio which they assure me is an actual one cf mock one and most of the numbers have a minus in front of them.... [B)]

I've been reading the EWI free week information since last Wed in the hope of determining whether its worth paying for or not. Undecided at this stage and when I go to check out the cost [:0] its $US200/month for intraday forecasts for Eur/$ and USD/Yen

Daily weekly and monthly views or other currency views are all additional items at $99 then $49
hmmmmm....

anyone used them?
of course its easily worth it if they are good

[arco]

Hi Peat

Not tried the paid for membership but have
not been particularly impressed with their
free info offerings.

How many pips a week would you be happy with
if you were paying US$200 ?

arco

[peat]

arco
guess I would be happy with it giving a 100 % return eg would need to only make 100 of my small pips per week. If their analysis proved reliable then I would just increase the size of the contracts until it was well worth while.
To my mind if something like that made trading consistently profitable then it would be well worth it. But I guess they get things wrong like everybody... so you'd have to build in margins in weighing up its value.
Thing is , I need more guidance to make worthwhile money out of fx... I seem to be winning and losing randomly and not going anywhere over the long term. I enjoy it , but at the end of the day its all about making money, and quitting the day job one day hahah.

[peat]

ps
so you are viewing their free offerings this week?
True dat they dont seem to be on the same wavelength (heheh) as you at all from what you've posted.

[arco]

Hi Peat

I did sign up for the freebies but have not looked at their offerings so far. EW is OK and occasionally I can get some ideas from simple wave structures.

However, the weaknesses of the Elliott Wave principle are many.

An incorrect reading of even a single minor wave can put one on the wrong side of the market for some time.

Corrective waves are notoriously difficult to evaluate and often their conclusion can only be determined after the event.

The exceptions, e.g. 5th wave failures and wave extensions, can lead to some serious mistakes and major lost opportunities.

Often the minor waves are confusing, difficult to interpret and conflict with EWP rules.

.............and maybe lots more[B)]

arco

[peat]

yes well they have adjusted their count overnite following the Chicago PMI and the subsequent dollar bear attack.
Also they extended my free access for a month so it is good to have more time to judge.

[Xerof]

Hi guys,

a catchup on your searching questions.....

Blackswan - yes Arco, very average returns over the long haul, but I would guess its better than the average bear and I guess also that they feel they HAVE to be in the market with reco's more often than not - the basic problem for most advisory style outfits - with the result that they leave themselves exposed to 'sub-optimal' entries, hence lots of small losses, purely for the sake of being seen to be in the market.

EWI - will be interested to hear how you find it Peat, over a full month trial.

TRL - as I have stated before, I subscribe to this service, and have done so for over 8 years now. That might say a lot about this the consistency of this service. He is a EW purist, is not right all the time (who is?), but is quick to change his EW counts as the markets develop, which helps with damage control.

I'm sure he won't mind me promoting his service, so here's a sample of what he had to say yesterday at the european open for EUR


quote:. ** EUROPEAN TRADING UPDATE ** August 31st, 1.2215

Support found around 1.2185 for rally onto 1.2280 Resistance,then 1.2350


for NZD


quote:. ** EUROPEAN TRADING UPDATE ** August 31st, .6890

Buying Kiwi around mid .6800's (Stop under .6820) for advance twd .7000+


and the other currencies he advises on all had pretty much the same bias vs USD

Not bad eh? - didn't see anybody else holding that view yesterday (Arco's Gann level of 6867 for NZD being the exception;);), and I note a triple bottom there now Arco)

TRL will do free trials for a month - I can recommend giving them a go.

If after a trial you wanted to subscribe, send him an email and mention his Havelock North supporter and Starcraft in the same breath and he might give you a nice subscription rate as well.


www.trl.co.nz

pinch and a punch for first of the month - September - gentlemen start your engines :D:D



regards

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Xerof

Good to see you back on board.

Yes my NZ Gann calcs turned out to be pretty accurate
and I decided to take most of my profits off the table
last night with a tight stop on a small balance.

The USD.CHF call I gave was a little early unfortunately
but I did get in yesterday at 2620 currenty +85

Longed Euro from 2250 now +73...also mentioned a possible
north bound move a few days ago courtesy the flying Monarchs ;)

Signal providers

I'm familiar with TRL but I think he wants your Credit Card
details before he will give a free trial.

Another interesting point about signal sellers.
I notice signal provider Stormy is getting a lot
of flack - he's approaching 2000 pips down in
August apparently with no winning trades).

arco

[peat]

hmmm that free month was a bit of a scam I have to buy one to get one.... the EW site did say they changed their Euro bear view at 1.2348 which it did exceed , but thats a bit late really.

Well yeh I got burned on the Eur again with that rise last nite.... bummer - everyone else was saying Eur heading to 1.21 , so once again I salute you Arco. I will listen next time ...

seems like i should investigate the TRL

Starcraft!! did someone mention Starcraft!!! My Goliaths are waiting. Tanks in Siege Mode!

[arco]

TRL

After providing your credit card number & registration information on TRL's secure server, you will start receiving my Daily Forex service immediately. The only charge for this 1-Month Trial is a nominal US$30, to cover the cost of administration.

Alternatively, just send arco a christmas card and he'll continue to give you heaps of free ideas on the ST forum :D

[peat]

arco
i'll be frank here - given what you've just said
it does seem idiotic to pay for something when u do indeed give your ideas away , and from what you post here it would seem that you have pretty close to a perfect record... but I dont know if I am retarded or not, but I can never seem to clearly interpret your postings. I read up on gartleys etc when i first read your posts but they still just seem to fly over my head like some sort of uncatchable butterfly.
[:I]
I havent really said much about this becoz after all you are under no obligation to give anything away so I refrain from hassling you.
[:I]

[Xerof]

TRL - sorry if I put you wrong - I assumed it was a free trial, although I do remember when he was in establishment mode it was free, and some local corporates took the p*i*s*s and signed up for free trials month after month, so perhaps thats why its no longer free.

We'll post our christmas cards here shall we?

Arco, when do you publish "Monarchs of the Glen"? ;);)

Speaking of which, the first of the monarchs have returned and are fluttering around the garden today, busily seeking out the swan plants that I repositioned during the off season:D:D, but they're not telling me anything yet[^][^]

Xerof

[Xerof]

Arco - just seen your comment re stormy - I hadn't looked at his site for a while, but if thats true, maybe I'll simply delete the link and stay here on ST.

When I first found him, he was having a stunning run - ah well - every dog has his day...


Xerof

[Xerof]

TRL

Had a word with Max - if anyone wants a 'very special extended trial offer' email him at max.mckegg@xtra.co.nz quoting

ahem.... "Xerof of Havelock" and he'll see what he can do - will also look at a decently discounted sub too, if you wish to stay on after the trial.

Xerof of Havelock[:I][:I]

sounds like someone out of a Robin Hood adventure:D

[peat]

i already signed up with the trial.... but I'll email him anyway
thx Xerof of Havelock

[arco]

Hi Peat, (or should that be Frank!)

It helps if you have some charting knowledge, however
most of the tech stuff has been explained somewhere in the
dim and distant past. Try a check using the search function
and you should find reference to 'change of polarity',
or whatever your query is.

Normally I give possible support/resistance/reversal points
using Gann techniques sprinkled with a liberal helping
of Fibonacci and a smattering of Elliott Wave.

Of course occasionally the Monarchs come out to play, or
a Bullish Bat sticks his nose in. But thats another story
for the memoirs.

Xerof

Thks - I will send a coded message and see what happens.

arco of the Glen.

[peat]

thanks again for all your assistance
I got a 3 month offer at a very reasonable price which has commenced already. And the offer of cheap annual subscription following that too should I wish.
The latest recommendations werent quite specific enough in my opinion - giving the commentary that something will go up 200 points but might go down 120 points first just didnt really motivate me to jump in (waiting for the drop to happen - which didnt - seemed the prudent thing, so I ended up missing out on last nites bull run.

But I am very optimistic that in the coming months his stuff will be extremely useful.

[arco]

Hello Peat

I looked at yesterdays offering and he gives some
good general points on possible scenarios. I compared
his thoughts with my own on certain pairs and they were
roughly in sync even though we are both using different
techniques. In that respect it is nice to see anothers
opinion for clarification.

I think if you are looking for specific buy/sell
recommendations with set targets and SL, then
the NL might not work for you. However, if you are
requiring confirmation of short/medium/long term
trends it could be of great assistance.

arco

[peat]

NL = ?

yeh Max seems to be suggesting Eur going to a similar level as you so thats validating.
I think I just need some medium term goals to lay a plan behind. Its early days yet having only received 2 of his reports but as I said I'm optmistic. Todays report gave more specific trading details than yesterdays which was quite general.... time will tell of course
Guess I need to respect his confidentiality tho and not cut and paste or anything but yeh will let you know how it all goes.

Certainly the Danes I've talked about are taking a pasting in this strong rally.

[arco]

NL = newsletter

By the sound of it you can forget the Danes,
there is much better info around ;)

arco

[Xerof]

Peat, Arco and anyone else who signs up.

This might assist with interpreting TRL's twice daily commentaries.
You will find, over time, that some days you'll receive quite explicit entry levels, with s/l levels and target levels, and on other days, more generalised expectations, as explained below.


quote:Particularly for the benefit of my more recent subscribers

I want to point out that whilst on some days the technical

outlook of the markets will appear quite clear to me, on

other days the market outlook will be clouded with my

indicators/signals mixed.



When the Daily Outlook appears clear, I will try to “paint

an accurate portrait” of what I see, giving as clear and

unambiguous a forecast as possible. Alternatively, when

the daily outlook is far less certain to me (something which

is not uncommon!) I will instead “paint a broader landscape

picture” providing whatever useful advice I possibly can on

such days.



This reflects the vagaries of the forex market & recognition

of the fact that there is not always a worthwhile trade to be

made each and every day.

Max Mckegg




As I've said before, I use TRL as a guiding influence, for confirming or challenging my own views.

nice weekend all,

GO THE BLACK's

Xerof

[Xerof]

Peat said:

quote:Certainly the Danes I've talked about are taking a pasting in this strong rally.


The strength of the rally, and the lack of any decent pullbacks indicates the Danes aren't alone in being pasted Peat[B)][B)]

[peat]

well I arent making , but I got out of my shorts quick smart....

will probably go long with a Kiwi and a Euro when I get home from work as this triangle forming certainly seems just like the one about 18 hours ago. (and coz thats what TRL think heheh)

[peat]

lucky i rushed home and got on this train [:p]

[arco]

Yes all thanks to Britomart :D

[peat]

but like most Auckland trains it came back half full....[V]

seems like maybe some more retracement is due for the USD pairs.

[arco]

Refueling stop...

[slam]

Yes, I think it was a good time to pick up more;)
we will see
cheers
slam

[slam]

Asian market kicking things along today[8D]

[slam]

Had a quick look at TT new platform, like the old one better.
Sometimes you can be to cleaver when it comes to web design.
I like the KISS principle
Oh well

ST the one for me:D

Cheers
slam

[arco]

Morning Slam

Yes, I had a look at TT last night. Firstly the site
does not accept my log in name and password. Now what?

Secondly, I notice they say the old posts are archieved
and will be available later in the year. Big mistake I think.

ST is a good site but we could do with a few more
posters on the FX forum. Plus we need a facility
to upload images

And whats happened to Xerof ?
Come back - all is forgiven :D

[Xerof]

I'm still about Arco, but not entirely focussed on the markets at the moment

TT - you have to re-register but its not too onerous, I used exact same psuedo and password as before

"ST rules OK" - but you're right Arco, a few more posters would be welcome and an ability to post chart images might assist in this regard

Distracted Xerof

ps great calls yesterday Arco - well done.

[slam]

You have to wonder how good some of the recommendations are out there.
The news squawk box that comes with my trading platform, give signals as well.

Atm they are long NZD/USD, Short AUD/USD and Long AUD/NZD[:o)]

Now that to me just doesn’t make sense

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Geeezz
The old Europeans like to give it a fair nudge when they start the day[}:)]

[peat]

yeh that was a bit of a wind up wasnt it
makes me wonder tho, if its a trap coz they are really gonna move it the other way... which is of course what i , too , would prefer.

[slam]

Pete
I never have really worked out why that happens.
Maybe hunting for stops to pickup more, but by my reckoning, you sell to drive it down so you are dumping to pick up more.
Don't know.
Anyone else got an idea on it, bamboozles me

Still, good chance to top up[8D]

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

The new TT site seems very hard to navigate, even to read.
Can't see many posters using it in its current format and
I will certainly be giving it a miss for now.

Sometimes things are better left alone IMO.

arco

[miner]

Sometimes if your looking to hard for it to go one way you miss it going the other,empty head theory stuff:D;).

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Evening miner

[miner]

Hi mate eur/jpy tidy again today compared to my other 3,still doing other stuff so just keeping the old half an eye on things.

[slam]

Just heading off to a gig
Locking in some profit as I have 5 pairs running and hate to leave them atm.
Still, gotta go earn a buck or 2;)
Might catch you at 1pm when I get back:D

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

miner
1 to add to youe watch list might be GPB/JPY
arco mentioned it the other day and it's been behaving nicely
Need another screen[?];)

bfn
Slam

[miner]

Could do but would need another screen also,and 5 might be a bit much[:0],ta tho will have a look at that pair:D,more than likely be here at 1pm tho[xx(].

Say hi to those tasty groupies for me;).

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

I must admit to being a little gun shy after todays drip[:I]
May just watch for a while me thinks

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Make a cuppa and put a CD on time:D;).

[slam]

Or
Visit the shed and go to bed;)[8D]

[miner]

Peat was just thinking something that may help you,eur/usd and usd/chf always go opp ways so if unsure on one look at other to confirm,charts overall show this but look at say last 7 daily's,spooky,and look at the last 3 days(counting today) and the 3 before on both,each block of 3 the same.

Tea leaf stuff I know but canny help myself sometimes;).

[miner]

Tempting slam but then that b*stard murphy will make a woppa move:(;).

[arco]

It's all Katrina's fault [V]

[Xerof]

FWIW, with the event risks coming up over the weekend, I am keeping the powder dry until Monday. I read somewhere that the German results will become known mid/late Monday morning NZ time - should be fun[^][^]

Be prepared for gapping price action, dreadful spreads, and poor execution on stops etc etc if running positions after tonights close.

good weekend to all, don't forget to vote, and we'll see if the sun rises on Sunday morning.

Xerof

[peat]

yeh so guess the election uncertainty in Germany is a real downer on the Eur huh... markets always hate uncertainty....

[Xerof]

well, could gap either way of course

and its also a Japanese holiday......so no real liquidity until European open

[miner]

Peat maybe can that hummer giving you signals,put it in the lesson basket,and do what Arco suggested the other day as in just try using simple candle turn signals(the KISS system) then work out which charts you use as in times,I use daily 1 hour 15min and 5min on each pair,so 4 charts for each on each screen.

Then maybe work on safe times to play,as in when it is messy just watch and wait for the right signal when it is tidy,so at times sit on your hands,I know zip compared to others about charts,but have started using very rough trend lines with simple turn signals and it is working.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Who's got snow[?][:I]

[miner]

No one has got snpw,but you might need your snow shovel:D;).

[Xerof]

Sunny day here in the Bay Slam but doubtless you'll send the icy blast our way later today

re snpw - Bit cold for a p in the snow - beware of frostbite on exposed extremities:D:D

Xerof

[slam]

Yeh alright[:I] :p
It's so cold in chch that my fingers are hitting the wrong keys:)
Got about a foot outside the door, so if we get 3 days of this, I'll be skiing down the hill

Cool

Slam

[Xerof]

I'm booked in to walk the Banks Peninsula track in a fortnight - should I strap a couple of tennis racquets to the pack?

[xx(][xx(]

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

I'm booked in to walk the Banks Peninsula track in a fortnight - should I strap a couple of tennis racquets to the pack?

[xx(][xx(]


Should be fine by then[8D]
I got a car if you need a lift, it's a hell of a walk:D

[miner]

You'll be P-eed off if the weather stays like this:D;).

[Xerof]

Longest day is only 11 km. I'm getting fit by walking to the letterbox each day - should be enough[8D]

Mrs Xerof has done a bit more, as she'll be carrying the pack, case of wine and chillibin.....

[zyreon]

i got a face full of hail out jogging this morning.... refreshing

[slam]

Hi All
Another choppy day all-round. Sitting on hands atm
Anyone see anything?

Slam

[Xerof]

Slam, wouldn't imagine anything will move too far either way before the Fed announcement in the morning. Take the day off and shovel all that snow off the roof

Market appears now to have fully priced in a US rate hike, and possibly also priced in no change to the tone of accompanying statement, having completely priced them both out after H Katrina, so perhaps a dovish statement from Big Al might be the catalyst for next big move

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Slam

Not an easy day to forecast.
Took 22 pips off a EUR short earlier today.
Looks like a Bear Flag forming, so may
get back in again.

Peat
You mentions Gann the other day. You may find
some useful info here, or just Google for Gann
and you will finds pleanty to keep you going.

http://www.lambertganneducators.com/pages/newsletters_archive.php

arco

[slam]

Hi Xerof & Arco

Arco, I think they were my 22 pips you took[:I]

Xerof, clearing the path for your walk, should have it done by the time your here:D

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

thats some good stuff right there!

[miner]

Chart times,which ones do you guys use? hourly,15min etc.

[Bilo]

"Fharad Jain a director of S&P's sovereign and public finance ratings unit, said:
Half of New Zealand's foreign debt was denominated in New Zealand dollars and of the rest, about 90 per cent was hedged."

Does anyone know the extent and effect of this hedging policy referred to by S&P - or know where I can read about it?

[arco]

Bilo

Have you tried a search engine.

I put "New Zealand's foreign debt 90% hedged"
into previewseek and came up with some possible
results.

http://beta.previewseek.com/?where=web&vid=l202154157203I1127362960&twin=n&query=New+Zealand%27s+foreign+debt++90%25+hedged&x=36&y=6

arco

[Bilo]

Thanks Arco
That Helped in that I found the source - S&P. 50% of debt is private and assumed to be mostly hedged, rest is in NZD. Not particularly current information though.

[slam]

Interesting angle on the AUD and NZD
For what it's worth;)

Slam


quote:
September 26: Reports from the G7 on the weekend indicated that some of the G7
members harbour serious concerns that financial markets might be under-pricing
risks they face in their search for yield returns after an extended period of
low global interest rates. Officials fear that the large global imbalances and
possibility of an extended period of high oil prices could put global economies
at risk and the current risk spreads are not reflecting those risks.
The long period of low global rates has made the "carry trade" an enormously
popular vehicle for global investors desperately searching for returns. This
popularity has resulted in large investment flows into the NZD and AUD due to
the relatively high-yield offered by those two currencies. There was a lot of
talk last week that the NZD could be extremely vulnerable if "carry trade"
investment flows were to dry up due to the fact that the NZ current account
deficit is running around 8% of GDP. The Australian current account is running
around 6.5% of GDP and some analysts feel that both currencies would be
vulnerable if the markets started to price in greater economic risks and/or G7
central banks continue to hike rates to address future inflation risks. --

[arco]

Thanks for that article Slam......very interesting.

In the long term we have to remember NZD has come a long way from Oct 2000 when it reached a low of .3905. The recent high may be hinting at a triple top, and a fall from that on Fibonacci retracement values say of 50% would equate to a drop to circa .5700
That may tie in with the resistance area of 6/5/1999 - .5663

In the short term NZD looks vunerable if it breaks
the major Gann at 6836 and it could then continue down
on a Butterfly final leg to btw 6700-6800. (with minor
Gann @ 6714)

arco

[peat]

quote:Lone Olesen - Jyske Bank

EUR/USD is treading water right above the psychological threshold 120. A definite break is, however, only a matter of time. Now I strongly believe that the long mentioned correctional B-wave is history, and instead we are headed towards the rewarding C-wave that at the outmost could take EUR/USD all the way down to 103.
Of course a move like that will not happen overnight, but one should be prepared that renewed volatility will arise and most likely be a big surprise to many a marketparticipant. Once we break 120 the next
psychological threshold will be centered around 118.70 the
previous bottom in EUR/USD. A break here will though pave
the way towards a revisit with 115, constituting the first area of
strong support.

[slam]

Hi Pete
When was that quote printed?
It seems a bit behind the [8] ball as 1.2000 has been broken

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

i received the email at 6:30 last night. so yeh its 14 hours old.

[arco]

Interesting to hear what they say but I think Peat said before that their predictions are not always that accurate.

I prefer to do my own thing and not get swayed by others thoughts.

arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco


I prefer to do my own thing and not get swayed by others thoughts.
arco

and so YOU should - forexmeister
i know they havent been very reliable - i was just thinking it was interesting coz of its EW reference

and btw
how's that long term trading system. have there been any signals lately?

[arco]

Morning Peat

Please continue to paste Jyske Banks thoughts. They can often hold relevant fundamental issues that chartists dont always know about, and their EW views are always good to compare.

My point was really to say that I have personallly found that sometimes there are so many differing views around its often easier to go with ones own system and suffer the consequences [B)].

One of the problems with longer term views is that they often equire very large stops. I would be interested if you have done any back testing of Jyske Banks longer term predictions?

The Monarch longer term system is not dead but its a bit like watching paint dry so I sometimes forget to check it. Just had a look at EUR and its definately in short mode at the moment.

I'm currently sticking to the tried and tested formulas for short/medium term moves.

arco

[peat]

Jyske Banks published views have been quite erratic in my opinion, veering on a whim it seemed, and with a daily publication views should be more medium term in my opinon. But they list their 'result' and of their ten traded crosses only two are in the positive , the Eur/Nok at 2.12 % and the 'funding' cross they trade CHF/DKK at 0.23 % Their result on the Eur/USD is an embarrasing -12.11% A good enough backtest?

I guess the important question is when exactly did your LTTS click short? OK to ask that?[8)]

[arco]

Peat

I am on the laptop at the moment and I don't have the longer term Monarch charts on this computer, so I will answer that question tomorrow.

I dont get the EUR.NOK chart but I did have a signal on the USD.NOK early Sept which has resulted in about 300 pips, however I dont trade the exotics very often and didnt mention it.

arco

[peat]

for the serious trader ;)
http://www.go-l.com/monitors/athens/features/index.htm

[arco]

Excellent Peat.....makes my one monitor look a bit sick.

To answer your question from last night.

The Monarch long term system on EUR has been in Shorting Mode since May and remains that way at present. There was a minor possibility of a reverse over around mid-Sept but that is not confirmed as yet.

GBP is similar.

arco

[slam]

I want the Grand Canyon:D
Where do you order them, I cant find the "buy now" button

[arco]

Looks like all the old TT guys are over at Khalsa Pad now

http://www.khalsaspad.com

[slam]

Off to play at the Kaikoura Seafest
Spot you all Monday

Cheers
Slam

[Dazza]

hey i just got my cmc account now

could someone explain to me what a limit and stop order is?

i know what a market order is... plus also stop loss order..

cause like buying normal shares not CFDs its easy... u just say buy up to... or sell down to...


how do i do that with CFDS?

[arco]

Dazza

You need to read the explanations on the CMC platform help topics as some platforms work different to other. Or for general info do a Google search and you will come up with lots of info and diagrams, etc.

arco

[peat]

looks a bit like the bear has escaped today...

[arco]

...unless its that scary stop running [B)]

Many of the majors are reaching potential reversal zones, but may not be ready to succumb just yet.

Waiting in the wings.

[peat]

Kiwi is showing less relative weakness than the Eur, there a few peeps out there still likin it for some strange reason. probably interest rates.
The Danes are cheering the US dollar like theres no tomorrow but do note commodity-bloc strength, suggesting that the present resillience could be quickly consumed.
howabout these suggestions for trades
i think , maybe sell at 6915 , stop loss 6938
or for bold people maybe buy now at 6905 stop loss 6888 , take at 6935

[Dazza]

i tink the 6938 is an important point myself

if it crashs through that, then id buy

[arco]

Peat

IMO there are a number of reasons to consider a reversal at the point may be possible. (USD.GBP)

1. The action has reached the Potential Reversal Zone (Butterfly target)

2. Reversal calculations have identified 4/10 as a likely date

3. There is possible Gann support @ 7578

arco

[Dazza]

what are the majors of FX

its like USDeur
USD gbp

any others?
are there non USD ones?

that have a spread of 3 pips? etc

[peat]

USD/JPY is a 3 pip spread and as 2nd largest volume traded is definitely a major

EUR/GBP is a 3 pipper but not in the top 6

USD/CHF (3rd largest volume) and EUR/CHF are also majors altho 4 pip spreads on my platform
EUR/JPY is as well.

I am pretty sure all those crosses have enough liquidity for you Dazza

;)

[Dazza]

thanks for the reply peat

could anyone give me the top 5

and then the top 10 in order/

thanks
by volume that is :P

[slam]

I think we may have a reversal or 2:D
Cheers
Slam

[peat]

some peeps at global-view are still just calling it a short squeeze ....

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by peat

some peeps at global-view are still just calling it a short squeeze ....


I have around 150pips EUR and 180 GBP and counting:D
So if thats a big squeeze, I'll take it;)
Cheers
Slam

Edit: My platform signals & news has just gone long on both as well

[arco]

Its always a short term possibility because the Oscillator on GBP and EUR is still below the zero line. Once it crosses we can almost sleep soundly in our beds. (Perhaps)

Trying to pick bottoms can be a dangerous occupation [:0]

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco


Trying to pick bottoms can be a dangerous occupation [:0]

catching falling knives.....can cut quite bad, and I know it.
thanks for this start arco....

i've locked in +75 with a 63 pip trailing stop
dont ask me where I choose these numbers from

[peat]

http://www.abnamrocraigs.com/pdfs/Morning%20Update%20071005.pdf
ABN Amro daily comment today re sharemarkets etc but the daily comment section is talkin about medium term dollar strength, expecting weakness only to occur in 2006.

But you know what economists are like ;)

[Xerof]

<center>http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/369/hiker012yj.gif</center>


Back in the saddle

See y'all next week

Xerof

[arco]

Welcome Back Xerof - (the Happy Wanderer).

You missed a very good week on the FX......but there are bound to be others.

arco

[slam]

Another Free EW week comming up for those interested
http://www.elliottwave.com
Just another point off view:)

Cheers
Slam

PS Welcome back Xerof, How was the treck

[Xerof]

Gidday Slam,

CHCH weather was kind to us for all days except the last, when we got hit by a southerly buster - literally had to crawl over the saddle, the wind was so strong, but 5 minutes of inconvenience out of 4 days didn't destroy any reputations.

A good track, quite demanding for one described as moderate, but the accomodation each night was excellent, so Mrs X was able to get a good nights sleep before pack-muling all our gear each day. Of course the chillibin and case of wine got lighter by the day, so she had nothing to complain about:D:D

Xerof

[peat]

your a rascal Xerof
welcome back

[slam]

Glad you enjoyed it Xerof
Not a bad place Christchurch, I like it anyway:)

[Xerof]

Yeah, I'm a Cantabrian by birth Slam, left when I was 21.

Hadn't been beyond Akaroa though in all that time so was new territory for me

Xerof

[Xerof]

Yikes, better take another cruise Arco.

I already know what they'll get out of me........


quote:Inland Revenue is looking to get more than $200 million in additional tax from the 100 richest people.

Xerof

[arco]

Serious question

If you are cruising permanently would you be liable for any tax?

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by arco


Serious question

If you are cruising permanently would you be liable for any tax?



Yes
I went down that road with my accountant.
If you are offshore for more that x amount of days per year (Around 140 but don't quote me), you pay tax as an overseas resident working in NZ. Not sure on the rate but my accountant seemed to think it was a not a good idea[B)]
Even if your place of official residence was a tax free haven (read Heaven;))

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Morning All
Well took a bath last night[B)]
Gave up a whole lot of gains and some, (should have tightened stops)

Thankfully today’s a new day:)

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by slam
Well took a bath last night[B)]

I seem to live a life of permanent clean-ness
they say its next to Godliness but I'm not so sure.

[slam]

Yes Pete
God came into it this morning when I looked at my station and Balance;)

[arco]

Big brother will catch up with you eventually........

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf05/opa5126-05.htm

[Xerof]

I'm hoping none of our regulars have Refco as their platform - not looking too flash

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Xerof

I'm not with Refco - whats the story ?

arco

[arco]

Um. Looks very dodgy.

Heres a link with the latest on Refco.

http://www.topix.net/search/?q=refco&submit.x=35&submit.y=9

arco

[slam]

Got this email this morning from my platform provider

So Hopefully Ok[:I]


quote:
Dear Client,

We have received several inquiries regarding the recent news surrounding Refco. In particular, clients have asked how the news about Refco affects FXCM.

The answer is: the news has no effect on FXCM or its clients. FXCM is an independent company with a strong balance sheet and regulatory record. Information on both can be viewed at the CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/files/tm/fcm/tmfcmdata0508.xls and NFA website http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/SearchResults.aspx?type=firm&firm=FOREX+CAPITAL+MARKETS.

Although Refco is a minority shareholder, FXCM is managed and controlled by the firm's original founders. Furthermore, Refco has never had access to FXCM's client or firm assets.

* FXCM's net capital exceeds $61,000,000 and is completely independent and separate from Refco
* FXCM's client funds are completely independent and non-accessible by Refco


FXCM clients can make deposits, withdrawals, and trade as usual. For further information, please contact our knowledgeable staff 24 hours a day. Contact information can be found at http://www.fxcm.com/contact-fxcm.jsp.

Best regards,

Drew Niv
CEO
FXCM

[Xerof]

Interesting development - Black Swan have decided to voluntarily cease their currency advisory service, and have refunded subscriptions.

Very honorable of them

[peat]

thats strange Xerof
what was their stated reason?

[Xerof]

Poor performance over recent times, as far as trading recommendations go.

[arco]

They obviously need the Sharetrader 'A' team to help them out with their selection :D

Talking of tipsters - hows Max doing since his holidays?

arco

[peat]

its good that they can and do evaluate themselves.
theres a lot of double-speak out there

[peat]

hes hungry for more subscriptions
even tho I was paid till end of Nov I got the big hard sell, and a rather astonishing questioning of my decision to 'continue to evaluate his serivices' whichd seemd reasonable to me as he ,as you noted, has been on holiday for almost a third of my subscription period.
I dont know about you Xerof but I find his stuff difficult to utilise.

[Xerof]

Well, I've had over 7 years of it, and will continue to subscribe, but I would concede it's not for everyone, and as I've said before, I use it as a guide, not a tip sheet. Has to be remembered that his client base largely consists of banks, funds and corporates, rather than retail, and that he is putting out views twice daily on 6 pairs - that's fairly demanding.

Since he's been back? - slow start but a very good call of the USD sell-off, and subsequent rally late last week/early this week.

For me personally, it adds to the mix of tools I use (its my default EW, given I'm useless at it), and I rarely follow every recommendation given. If it supports my own perspective, then it serves as a reinforcement to enter a trade.

Xerof

[peat]

yeh for sure it must be hard to output that every day and note well I aint dissin him, just sayin I havent used it well.

[slam]

A tumblin, A tumblin, A tumblin down:D

[slam]

Well
A hammerin, A hammerin, A hammerin, I took[B)]
Just when I thought I was getting the hang of it[:I]

Cheers(I think)
Slam

[slam]

Morning All
LOL:D:D
My trading station has developed a fault.
It is running around 3 mins behind my charts.
I can see into the future[8D]

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Bugger, they fixed it.:(
Scaled 64 pips in around 15 mins though. I'll take it

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

still got my Eur short from 1.2037.... and have added another at 1.1974
closed out all others....
might take another Kiwi short if it stays up at these levels when I get back to my home PC tho.

[peat]

[:0] max saying to buy euro today [:0]
its a bit late for me
it would have been useful to say that yesterday not now. thats what I would be hoping for from such a service.
a/c has zero equity now [xx(] wonder how long before they close me out !?

[arco]

Peat

Try using him as a contrarian indicator.....He says buy - you sell.

What was he saying yesterday?
Did he give a buy on GBP ?

arco

[peat]

As this is nearly 24 hours old I dont feel obliged to keep it confidential
Max said of cable
OCT.10th,1.7600 - Sterlings preparing for break below KEY 1.7275 Supportto herald next strong sell-off toward the 1.6200 level over coming weeks--------------------------------------------------------- *GBP/USD DAILY VIEW* OCT.25th,
Sterling met 1.7730 corrective target But decline's inconclusive,requiring Break ofResistance 1.7570 to encourage Downtrend has resumed------------------------------------------------------------------------. ** EUROPEAN TRADING UPDATE ** October 25th, 1.7670S/T Indicators Mixed and so awaiting the next clear Trading Opportunity.

[peat]

so he was bearish med term but mixed short term

generally the comments are all the same for the various USD crosses eg he was mixed for Eur as well but with the big downtrend ready to resume.
I guess its me that isnt reading him very well.

He seems to get it right often enough not to be contrarian hahah

Well I am hanging in with my Euro shorts , kind of leavin it up to fate now...

It took me a year to lose 2500 USD LOL

[blackcap]

who is this MAX person?

[Xerof]

www.trl.co.nz

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

www.trl.co.nz


Cheers, will have a look.

[Xerof]

quote:The Reserve Bank has increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 7.00 per cent.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "As noted in our September Monetary Policy Statement, medium term inflation risks remain strong. Persistently buoyant housing activity and related consumption, higher oil prices and the risk of flow-through into inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal policy are all of concern. While there has been a noticeable slowing in economic activity, and a particular weakening in the export sector, we have seen ongoing momentum in domestic demand and persistently tight capacity constraints. Hence, we remain concerned that inflation pressures are not abating sufficiently to achieve our medium term target, prompting us to raise the OCR today.

"The most serious risk to medium term inflation is the continuing strength of household spending, supported by a relentless housing market and rapid growth in mortgage lending. Significant dis-saving by the household sector is showing through in a worsening current account deficit, now 8 per cent of GDP. Borrowers and lenders alike need to recognise that the current rate of debt accumulation is unsustainable. The correction of these imbalances and associated inflation pressures will require a slowdown in housing, credit growth and domestic spending. We also expect a significantly lower exchange rate. The longer these adjustments in behaviour and asset prices are deferred, the more disruptive they are likely to be.

"Today's increase in the OCR, combined with higher world interest rates and pipeline effects from the repricing of fixed rate mortgages, are expected to slow the housing market and household spending over the coming months. However, the prospect of further tightening may only be ruled out once a noticeable moderation in housing and consumer spending is observed. Certainly, we see no prospect of an easing in the foreseeable future if inflation is to be kept within the 1 per cent to 3 per cent target range on average over the medium term."

My highlighting....

Xerof

[arco]

Spotted this on another site....may be of interest

Trader Self-Evaluation

Part One

What are Seven Key Areas that You Need to Work on to Become More Self-Aware?

By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

In my work with traders and investors I believe the most significant work that anyone can do to increase market returns is self work. Really understanding yourself and how you think can give you an edge that others in the market don't have.

As part of my Super Trader Program, I give a long questionnaire to each trader to do an evaluation of themselves. Some of the feedback that I get is that taking the test is like doing a Ph.D. program! It's that involved.

I consider the ten questions that I give my Super Traders to be the essence of this self-evaluation process— a minimum starting point for this type of work.

This week we'll start this process with just one of the points. My advice to my Super Traders is to spend at least an hour on each question—a day is even better. These questions are meant for you to really dig deep and come up with responses from your core belief structure.

Question of the week:

What are seven key psychological areas that you need to work on or are currently working on?

Don’t say “none” because that answer really suggests that you are totally unaware of what is going on with you.

We basically live in a society in which we are programmed to feel separate and alone from everyone else, programmed to follow the rules of the games that others invent for us to play. The net result is most people do the exact opposite of what is necessary for success. As you become aware of this, you’ll also become aware of all your patterns, beliefs, and emotions that you need to work on or clear out to become more successful as a trader.

Here are some examples that might fit some of you:

I really have a fear problem that enters into my trading. I want to make trades but I’m afraid to pull the trigger. And that fear seems to come up in other areas too; I guess I’m really afraid of failure.
I have some internal conflict when it comes to working on myself. On one hand I want to, but on the other hand, I’d rather do other things. Working on myself feels like having a tooth pulled. For some reason, I just don’t want to do it.
I don’t have any discipline. Sometimes I just decide to trade. I make almost random trades or take recommendations that I’ve been given, but just certain select ones appeal to me. And the net result is that those trades never seem to work out. (Note: this is also an incomplete answer. What is the selection process? What happens to those trades? Do you cut losses and let profits run? Are you compelled by some emotion to trade?)
My mother continually criticizes me. My mother gave me everything when I was growing up, and I’m very grateful to her. But she’s always telling me what I do wrong. In fact, it upsets me to be around her. Yet at the same time, I feel that I must support her. I need to find out why her criticism bothers me so much and what I can do about it.
I really don’t like to be alone. When I do all of things that are important to trading success, like psychological work, I have to go inside and search and that really disturbs me. Also when I try to meditate, things come up that cause me to be afraid. (And, of course, if you had this response, I’d want you to at least find out what’s trying to come up that is causing this).
Those five statements are just examples of what might come up for you. But whatever you find…look thoroughly. What’s really going on? What are the emotions you don’t want to feel? What are the hidden beliefs? What is the internal conflict where part of you wants certain things and another part wants something else? Who are these parts and what are they trying to do for you? (The concept of "parts" is covered extensively in the peak performance home study and 101 workshop)
Next week we will continue with another important self-evaluation topic.

Trader Self-Evaluation

Part Two

What are Your Key Beliefs About the Marke

[peat]

yes i got a similar email too arco, and i should read and learn for sure

LOL I made lots of pips last nite in my demo platform LOL

[peat]

amazing session for me actually ...
at 1.2055 put in a limit sel at 1.2187 with s/l 1.2130 and t/p 1.2003. Never expected the sell to get triggered yet alone the tp at +83. :D
Also just closed out +40 on the Kiwi, tho that was a more manual operation.
Credit to Max , tho he said to sell at 1.21 which it never actually reached - but definite signs hes drinking the right tea again.

[Xerof]

Good to hear Peat.

I've just squared up on a few positions (NZD, GBP, AUD) for some very tidy returns, and will reassess after the Fed tomorrow.

(The real excuse is its Melbourne Cup day.........)

:D:D

Xerof

[peat]

i'm on a course for work today so all square now
and have Thur and Fri off work to spend 4 days here!!
http://www.waterfrontmotel.co.nz
so not much trading this week.... but yeh still solvent :D
and Max may get a renewal if he keeps up like this. Last few days have been almost perfect predictions.

[Xerof]

quote: i'm on a course

Flemington is the course to be on Peat[:p][:p][^][^]

[Xerof]

Arco,

Do you use any software for doing your Gann calcs, or is it a matter of researching his writings, and doing it manually.

I think I'm getting accustomed to butterflies and now want to add a few 'insurance policies'. The standard indicators don't wash too much for me I'm afraid....

Gann looks the most promising, but currently remains very mysterious in terms of application.

TIA

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Gann is a complex matter requiring endless study [V]....however, there is some software I purchased that will help with constructions.

Check out Don Fisher - http://dgl.topcities.com/

.........cost around $98USD

......also look here....... http://www.lambertganneducators.com/

arco

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Can you give me some info on e-signal please.

Is it, or can it be, web based?

Cost per month for data? Any cost for programme download?

I cant get broadband - is the live feed OK through a 56k modem?

Any good/bad points?

Thanks

arco

[Xerof]

Cheers Arco

Don Fishers looks promising at first look - I'd seen the Lambert site before

Xerof

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco



I cant get broadband

a sad indictment of our incumbent monopoly telco

where do you live? i thought justabout everywhere could.

[Xerof]

Hi Arco, sorry I missed your post. Will reply shortly regarding Esignal....

Xerof

[Xerof]

Esignal - www.esignal.com - recommend a good look around the site - there's plenty of info there incl minimum requirements for hardware www.esignal.com/download/- I would think you might get extremely frustrated with it if you're using a modem - best to have broadband, but there is a 'money back' "free" trial if you wanted to give it a go.

It is heavily weighted towards stocks rather than FX, but everything that works for stocks works for FX

Fees for Esignal premier (the only one with FX and advanced charting) cost me US1,020 for a pre-paid 12 months, plus US50 per month for FX price feed. That's annually repeating....

That might rattle your sporren;);)

Note that there are heaps of add-ons, all of which cost more money (there is an extensive list on the site of what's available)

The Advanced GET Studies package looks the most interesting as far as I'm concerned, the rest are proprietary products, marketed via Esignal

I've just noted that if you are a 'power user', which I would imagine you would be, i.e. dozens of charts, they recommend broadband or equivalent, so that might kill it for you anyway.

Support is brilliant - they have webinars for learning how to use it, advanced user seminars etc etc

To be honest I would not consider myself a heavy user of all the functions available yet, so I find it difficult to give a complete overview of its functionality.

BTW, are you sure you can't get broadband? Don't be put off by the 'self-test' which probably says you're marginal for a service - I'm apparently right on the edge, but it works fine

The Don Fisher DGL files apparently have a version that will work on Esignal - just subscribed to him....


not much help but have a look anyway

Xerof

No, you download the package to your hard drive, but live feed off the web obviously

[arco]

Good Evening Xerof

Thanks for your comprehensive reply.

I do have broadband wired up but the engineer said he was unable to hear the pulse. He tried all sorts to no avail. Something to do with the exchange being over 5 k away was the excuse.

Anyway, theres light at the end of the tunnel. Broadband should be available within 12 months....in fact I have seen some blokes playing about in big holes - maybe thats fibre optic cable they were threading through. Fingers crossed.

arco

[Xerof]

Well, there's the irony, I've got broadband, but not sewerage.....

[^][^][^]

[peat]

Xerof
have you got your morning daily email from Max?

[Xerof]

yes mate - rec'd at 12.03pm

[peat]

thanks
i think hes stopped mine coz I havent replied to his ones asking for the advance 6 month subscription.
But I told him I wanted to evaluate till the end of Nov :(

[Xerof]

The USD Index has had a daily close above the longer term resistance line for the first time this year.

I'm wondering if we are about to enter a trending market at last, but plenty of time for confirmation - a weekly close above 90.50 would be nice, but will wait to see what the market tells us on that score

NFP tonight - might be worth staying up or getting up for this time - our time zone really is lousy - makes it a long day....

Xerof

[Xerof]

Arco, do you use the spreadsheets using your EOD Rooter data for Gann calcs, or one of the available software files?

Seems to me to get more accuracy, the manual method would be the way, as the data feeds often have misquotes etc, which might distort the detail a little. Mind you I can see that must be very time consuming if monitoring a large number of currency pairs

TIA

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

I use Don's 'Martin' files together with Metastock/Rooters. Manual would be too time consuming.

arco

[peat]

Now back from my 4 day weekend at Coromandel. Beaches, boats, bush... good stuff for the soul. Only went to an internet cafe once ;+)
And glad I left one Euro short in place from 1.2006. While it was a lil bit risky doin that, I kinda felt that Murphy's law would see it go down while I was away esp if I didnt have any open heheh.

The Danes are looking for a USD/JPY correction at aroundabout this stage. I guess with 6 green candles and the last one looking very much exhaustive its quite a possibility.

With 1.1870 out of the way now tho, are we back into a trending market?

[peat]

The Danish Daily :

The EUR/USD pulled the legs
of many a market participant in the wake of the disappointing
employment report on Friday by rising to 119.94 before
dropping like a stone to 118.00. Logic this morning will be for
the EUR/USD to retrace some of the lost grounds in the first
round, but do remember that logic is mostly totally missing in
the currency market. An eventual rise to 118.50-70 is probably
what most traders are hoping for this morning as a level where
they could reinstate bought dollar positions. A continued slide
in the EUR/USD on the other hand is probably what they are
going to get, and hence they will be forced to reinstate bought
dollar positions at lower levels than originally wished for. One
of the main reasons for this is the fact that EUR/USD by
breaking 118.70 has broken the bottom of the previous triangle
formation opening up for a vehement slide of at least 3 big
figures(see FX-weekly "Mice or Men?" from Friday). And make
no mistake about it, the recent overall market lull has made
most traders unfamiliar with volatility, which they better get
used to again in the coming months. After the daily close below
118.70 on Friday I have lowered my stop to 121.50 on my
tactical position and with joy I am now having my eyes set on a
revisit with first 116 and further out 110. As far as USD/JPY is
concerned I reduced my bought position by 50% at 118 on
Friday. I am awaiting the next days before deciding when to
establish a new net sold position.

[arco]

Thanks Peat

Anyone know what caused those scary spikes
on NZD crosses around 7am???

arco

[slam]

Hi Arco

Which crosses?
My charts don't show a spike on NZD/ AUD, JPY

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Hi Slam

Huge spikes on Oanda around 7 am.

AUD.NZD (130 pips) and NZD.USD (116 pips)

arco

[peat]

they werent on GFT (my trading platform) or on the global-view charts that I run here at work.

[arco]

Thanks Peat

I have just checked FX Power chart and no spike there either....
I've taken a picture of the NZD power chart and will e-mail Oanda.
Perhaps a software glitch.

arco

[slam]

I have had spikes and gaps at times on my charting platforms as well.
Strangely, if I change from say a 1 hour chart to a 2hour, they disappear.
So now I check with this.
Corrupt data[}:)]

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Hi Slam

Yes, that can occur, already checked that but same on all timeframes.
I've emailed them so they will now be aware of the problem.

regards
arco

[peat]

some new spikes just now on the downside :D

[arco]

Bet they don't beat this 180 pip one.............Oanda definately have a few problems to sort out.

We are aware of the spike and are in the process of cleaning it up. All unfairly triggered orders will be reinstated.
Jay,OANDA Corporation

http://www.orion602.wz.cz/ScreenShot076.jpg

[slam]

Ah, so it wasn't just there charting, it was the trading station as well was it.
No wonder you were asking the question:)

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

More Danish daily
The currency of royal heritage - the USD - is certainly taking
revenge on most other currencies after having broken the
psychological hurdle at 118.70 in EUR/USD. After big stop loss
orders were hit in the Far East, EUR/USD slid further without
mercy. All of a sudden previous dollar bears have turned into
dedicated dollar bulls prediciting much lower levels to come on
the EUR/USD. So be it! Fact is, however, that trees do not grow
into the sky either in the currency market, hence I continue to
stick with my original target of 116, which constitutes the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big move from 82,40 -
136,70. Don't take me wrong. The King is powering ahead, but
from time to time we will see pauses and minor corrections
before the march towards 110 goes on. Let's first take 116 then
we will take 110, but all in due course.
Due course is also what's coming towards us in the USD/JPY
that has been leader of the dollar-buying pack recently. 118-
118.50 is as expected proving to be very tough resistance to
overcome indeed. Consequently, I have this morning sold 100%
on my tactical position leaving me with a net sold position now
of 50% in USD/JPY. The latest spike has been impressive, but is
now quite clearly running out of steam. What I expect though
is only a minor correction in USD/JPY towards at best 115,
where I place my take profit on the tactical position. Stop loss
on the new sold position is placed at 120.50. USD/CAD and
NZD/USD still remain my favorites despite all the pain. They
both offer good dollar-buying opportunities with lots of
potential. USD/CAD could easily fly towards 123 and
NZD/USD is bound for 61. You just come along!

[blackcap]

Just out of pure curiousity, has anyone heard of NZ Currency Concepts and does anyone use them?

[arco]

Hi Blackcap

Yes I have heard of them, but I dont use them.
I seem to remember Xerof mentioning them some time ago,
so he may be able to give you some further info.

arco

[blackcap]

Hi Arco

Thanks for that. Will wait for comment from Xerof.

Looks like the Kiwi could be in for a hard landing afterall.

Cheers

[peat]

theres a good search facility within this forum
i got 3 hits on that phrase itself
including :


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

The web site is:

http://www.currencyconcepts.co.nz/

There was an article in the herald June 1st. Search "fearless investors"

[Xerof]

Blackcap,

http://www.nzcurrencyconcepts.co.nz/

Ask for Scott and have a chat about what they do, if interested. Don't know what their performance record is like, but a 'genuine' NZ based company, totally devoted to FX speculation.

Xerof

[blackcap]

Cheers thanks Xerof.

Will have a look and have a yarn to Scott.

[peat]

geez its quiet in here these days
I think you guys must have pulled the wings off all the butterflies!

I'm finding Max's report very useful this week. His resistance levels have been spot on and I seem to be interpreting/actioning things better.
Long weekends truly are good.

As well as my short Euro and Kiwis I am also short CAD , but will probably close out tonight sometime.

good trading everyone