General Chit-Chat

[peat]

haha forex
come home and see Eur/Chf up 30 pips but realise it went down enough to take me out -6. just because you're not paranoid doesnt mean they arent conspiring against you.
But then if i wasnt really prepared to risk more than 6 I wasnt exactly committed to the trade now , was I.

[peat]

off to QLD till the 29th
Merry Xmas everyone!!

[arco]

Hello Peat

I spent most of my time in Caloundra, QLD - a great place IMO.
You should get some very hot weather.....28-30 C.

Have a great Christmas

arco

[arco]

Season Greetings to all.........


http://www.yuleloveit.com/animated_gifs/santas/thumbnails/ani_santas001.gif

arco

[slam]

Hope everyone has a great Christmas, and santa leaves you some nice charts under the tree;)

Thanks for all the great posts and lets look forward to another ripper year in 07

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Have a happy safe one guys,just did a tea leaf reading and they say we will all make heaps out of FX next year[:0]:D;).

Cheers
Miner

[roddy]

Yes have a great Christmas and drive safely,thank you to Arco,Slam,Miner, Xerof and Peat for your informative posts,your input has changed my trading!
cheers
cadet Roddy [8D]

[Xerof]

Happy Christmas and New Year to all


T'was the night before Christmas..............

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7696/twasthenightbeforechrisnx9.jpg


regards

Xerof

[roddy]

great pic Xerof,
i prefer

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/3245/potbelliedpigmg7.jpg

[peat]

yeh its has been pretty hot for me here in the sunshine state, thank goodness aircon everywhere , but cooler today.

[peat]

Announcements : (including NFP this week)
Times are Pacific/Auckland
Wednesday 03/01/07
USA 04:00 Manufacturing ISM
USA 08:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday 04/01/07
USA 04:00 Construction Expenditures
UK 22:30 M4 Money Supply
UK 22:30 PMI Services
UK 23:30 GFK Consumer Confidence Survey

Friday 05/01/07
USA 02:30 Weekly Initial Jobless Claim
USA 04:00 Factory Orders
USA 04:00 Non-Manufacturing ISM
USA 04:00 Pending Home Sales
Japan 12:50 Monetary Base
Japan 18:00 Vehicle Sales

Saturday 06/01/07
USA 02:30 Non-farm Payroll

[Steve]

Peat, where would I locate the announcement list?

TIA
Steve

[peat]

I got that info as a client service of CMC (my broker) so I doubt you can access that.

But Global View provides one as well at http://www.global-view.com/weekly.html
note that theirs is in GMT whereas mine is in NZ time.

[Steve]

How do you find CMC? I received an invite to a seminar, but haven't taken them up on it yet.

[peat]

See my post on MarketMaker for a review of CMC's trading (and analysis) platform.
As a broker they action all my forex trades with no problems so I am quite satisfied. The spreads are comparable with other brokers. So , no complaints.

[Steve]

Thanks Peat!

[peat]

serious action today!!

[peat]

http://www.pierce.ctc.edu/bbenedet/fall04/Documents/tumbleweed/tumbleweed.jpg

[miner]

Hi guys was going to post some charts to show you something but when I right click on the power chart the information box comes up,if I do it to the side of the chart properties comes up but it only posts that.

Anyway if someone can tell how or if you can do it I will post some charts.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi Miner
If you highlight ( click on) the screen you want to post, and hold down ALT while pressing " Print Screen" that copies that screen to your clipboard.
Then you can paste it into a Doc or open a new Paint image and paste it in.
Then you can save it and name it.

This will do a hole screen, not just a part of it

A bit long winded I know.

Hope this helps;)

Slam

[miner]

Ta slam but cant get it to work,is there a print screen button on my keyboard?,as when I press alt the right click box goes.

You know me still on my learners licence with computers.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi Miner
print screen button ot the right of your F Keys up the top
Next to scroll lock and pause

Cheers
slam

[miner]

Ta but what where is my clipboard?,bugger was going to take my "L" plates off this weekend but as still cant drive my PC may pay to leave them on[B)].

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Your clip board is part of windows that stores temporary stuff that you cut and paste ( or print screen stuff)
You don’t actually see it, it just holds it in memory until you paste it somewhere.
It will only remember the last thing you Copy/Cut etc
You wont see it until you paste it somewhere.
Open up a Doc and paste it in there you will see what I mean

Do you have Paint? Or some other image program?

[roddy]

Hi Miner
another way of doing it is to download a screen capture such as http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html

and then go to an image hosting site http://www.imageshack.us/
and register
then alls that you have to do is browse to where you have saved your chart by using screen capture,upload it,paste then copy into sharetrader.

look forward to seeing your charts
cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Hi Miner
another way of doing it is to download a screen capture such as http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html

and then go to an image hosting site http://www.imageshack.us/
and register
then alls that you have to do is browse to where you have saved your chart by using screen capture,upload it,paste then copy into sharetrader.

look forward to seeing your charts
cheers
roddy

[miner]

Ta roddy do I download site "1" ? (recommended): .

[miner]

Canny sort the charts on my "L" plates,but using the KISS pattern system look at eur/jpy daily (zoomed in to the number 28 on the bottom of chart so you see the three big red daily's) it has done what I call a big "U" pattern to test 158.05,well will test it soon.

In part as it got oversold,hit stops etc after shall we say the ann that started the south run,so sort of like shares do was going to bounce back.

Then look at usd/jpy (same zoom in on daily) it went south also but recovered sooner and has run north better than eur/jpy so it was telling you that eur/jpy would do the "U",also put a simple trend line on the previous 4 daily's(usd/jpy) and yesterday touched and ran north well,eur/jpy went with it,so confirm each other for the move north.

If you look at my other 2 pairs eur/usd and usd/chf they have both been messy compared to the other 2,so play the first 2,which have run better,also after the daily candle change rather than late at night,have mentioned before that the daily change can be a good time to watch for an entry(look at eur/jpy today).

When eur/jpy was getting sold into going north usd/jpy was not so the buyers would win on eur/jpy.

Would have posted on this last week with charts but as say on "L" plates,so with a bit of luck the above makes some sense and is a help,it's just patterns I see and the pairs working together,more to it than above but still very simple.

Roddy had already typed this up before you posted so will post it anyway,you guys will laugh at my KISS charts though if I manage to figure out how to post them,simple is a major understatment shall we say.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

In there roddy but lost "screen capture" ???.

[roddy]

hi Miner
not sure what you mean lost Screen capture,did it fail download,it should have installed an icon on your desk top,
sorry for not getting back sooner but have been out
getting a new video card so my son can play games

cheers roddy,
probably accounts for everything looking so large!

[miner]

Hi Roddy I don't have a desktop icon so maybe not downloaded right,anyway to busy to sort it out now,the charts I was going to post have pretty well happened but was more a this is a pattern to look for thing.

But if you count back 10 daily's and look at the turn candle on eur/jpy and then 11 on usd/jpy,you will see usd/jpy gave a good turn daily candle a day before eur/jpy.

eur/jpy,eur/usd and usd/chf are all worth a watch Monday at open,if could post the set up chart I would,but for now look at the hourly's,they have a north or south point they will test,eur/jpy north 157.67 or south 156.86,eur/usd north 1.3000 south 1.2913,usd/chf north 1.2528 south 1.2468 ,usd/jpy is messy but eur/usd may show the way.

Anyway thanks for your chart help guys,will try and sort it when have more time.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Morning chaps a simple trend line on the last 2 daily's for eur/usd and usd/chf may be worth a look.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Hi chaps charts only came on line last hour so a bit of a gap in my charts,and can only draw basic lines,but you may see what I am looking at?.

Will try and post some on all 4 pairs so you can see how they work together.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/7986/fx17ii.png

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/6875/fx26sz.png

Can't draw what I wanted on these charts but you may see what I am looking at?,count the daily's back to my bottom line and you will see that usd/jpy turned first and stronger,and ran well for 4 days,so with a few other charts etc said eur/jpy would keep going north even though was getting sold into.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

closed all my trades in the 3 other threads I posted in tonite
cant complain with 170 various sized pips bagged.
did lose 35 trying to short the Swissy the other nite tho.

[miner]

Good stuff peat,I see eur/jpy has gone through my 158.05 on my umm basic chart shall we say[:I];).

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

Yes its seems the new year unwind was just another correction, and a relatively minor one at that. The yeh carry trade is still a go go - All yen crosses are at or hitting new highs again.
This from Jyske bank last night

According to the latest IMM-figures calculated before
the no-change BoJ policy meeting last week total
sold JPY positions constituted the second
largest sold position ever in the history of the
survey. Imagine what the next release of the
IMM figures is going to reveal on Friday with
the JPY slide having accelerated further after
BoJ left rates unchanged last week.

Guess it will crash spectacularly at some stage, hopefully we can play it down too...

My Chf/Jpy long was based on perceived weakness of the USD against CHF (which did happen) but strength against Yen (which didnt happen exactly but did relatively).

[miner]

Worth a look as yesterday it did the back to test the dip(so a "U" )then through it(top horizontal line, the top trend line set it up),so now same thing on the bottom lines.

eur/usd followed(like usual) this move last night in the opp way

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/6954/fx32zd.png

Cheers
Miner
P.S if someone can tell me how to make these charts fit our page that would be good.

[peat]

I use the programme that I captures the image with to reduce the size of the image. I have something called Vuepro or Adobe Photoshop but anyone with any version of Windows can use MSPAINT (Start Run - mspaint) then its done from the \Image\Attributes menu.

Imageshack has an option to resize the image to 320 x 240 as well tho that might be a bit small

Or you can use the thumbnail option at imageshack which then becomes a link to the larger image
but its funny me telling you this coz I am the worst culprit with oversized images heh.

[Steve]

What time (NZ time) of the day do you guys usually trade?

[miner]

Hi Steve the change of the daily candle at 11am can be good and then at about 8pm,things can get busy,but depends as some days are like watching paint dry,other days like last week,eur/jpy can do 100 pips for the day.

If you watch enough you can see when things might happen,ie good patterns set up for the daily change so watch it,other days sideways all day give it a miss.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi MIner
Can you get into your trading station today?
Mine comes up with an error

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Hi slam just have now,don't know what was up?,gap in power charts also,you get the no dealing desk email?,what you think of it?.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Just looked and dealing rates not moving though???.

[slam]

yeah
logged in now but same with rates[xx(]

[Steve]

Miner & Slam - what trading platform are you using?

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

Miner & Slam - what trading platform are you using?


FXCM

[miner]

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/8190/fx54cc5.png

Steve 11am and around 8pm where ok times to watch this pair today(and it's mate eur/jpy,a times site is http://www.goforex.net/

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/9205/fx33vt2.png
Steve this is the pattern that made it worth a watch,see the usd/jpy thread.

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

Do you guys have a preferred time-frame that you use for your trading charts? eg: 1min, 5min, 30min, 60min etc

[miner]

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/5066/fx21pl5.png


Cheers
Miner

[peat]

I use 15 min, hourly and daily mainly Steve, tho will look at 5 min and 2 or 4 hours as well occasionally.
Miner - please clarify your point for the hard of seeing.

[miner]

Hi Peat was just showing Steve time frames I use,and how set up,does that answer your query?.

Are my charts of any help?.

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

Thanks guys, it all makes sense to me!

[miner]

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/941/fx77nn0.png

A pattern to look for,the spike down then back to test it,so an upside down small "U",they do this north or south all the time,so a trade pattern.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

cool cool..... I see now.

action hotted up a bit last night huh!!

[miner]

Looks like last night was busy peat I had the night off,see how usd/jpy just tested my bottom line?,so a trade to look at was a long off that,depending how it got down to it.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Peat forgot to put a simple trend line on the last 3 daily's(my usd/jpy chart),it worked well for yesterdays daily,simple but often works.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/3208/fx99bf5.png

Peat another trading pattern,usd/jpy did the same,so confirmed each,once they start they are fairly safe say after the first big red 15min candle(time 18:45),can you see what I am looking at on this one?.

Cheers
Miner

[roddy]

Hi Miner
could i take the liberty of replying?
great to see your charts
i can now see what you have been talking about for all this time,you have a system that is well thought out,and an approach using differing time frames to your advantage.
your chart of EUR/JPY 15 MIN found supprt at 157.00 1600 so your strategy was to wait for a bouce off resistance at 157.40 confirmed with some big red candle 18.45 on the 5 min with a target of 157.00 again.

i am not by my computer a lot at the moment so not trading at all

cheers roddy

[miner]

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/1107/fx322xg6.png

Thanks Roddy good to get some feedback,my system is very simple(well I think it is compared to what you could do with charting) but it works ok.

Each time frame is worked in part on supp ress,so big targets on the daily and smaller on each after that,eur/jpy is doing it now at 156.85 hourly so that was what I would be looking at after it got through 156.94,if through 156.85 on the hourly then look to the daily,yesterdays low of 156.79.

Hope that makes sense of how i look at targets on the different time frames,and glad you guys can see what I have been rambling on about,not easy to explain in tea leaf lingo,will post the eur/jpy chart,also 5min is zoomed in the most,less as they go up but as the time frames go up they show the bigger targets,hope that just made sense.

eur/jpy through 156.85 while I am typing this to test 156.79(may come back to test then keep going,if was on for a trade run stop just above 156.85),also keep in mind how the pairs work together as in opp or same way,so usd/jpy is messy but going same way as eur/jpy.

The watch at daily candle change thing,look at my top line on the hourly then the trend line on the daily,aply much the same to it's same way mate usd/jpy.

The trend line on the 5min is just a roughy,the confirm with the red 15min candle was more for you guys as I have watched them do these patterns for yonks,once you suss the patterns and how it moves you start seeing them.

It is also a bit messy today.

Edit,forgot to put a line on 15min at 157.01,went through it back up then tested 4 times then through so onto next target 156.85 with 157.01 now as ress rather than supp.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

http://img459.imageshack.us/img459/6240/fxbbqq7.png

Some rough trend lines but hopefully show what I mean about how these 2 go the same way and confirm each other,but keep in mind that eur/jpy can go out of sink and follow eur/usd ,nothing is that easy ay?.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

http://img506.imageshack.us/img506/3644/fxdddnn4.png

Ok last one then bed,I was saying how each time frame going up from 5min gives me bigger targets and overall picture,so if you look at this blow up of the 15min we see 156.79,so if you think I had my 15 min zoomed in a bit tight I had 156.79 as a target on the daily,through it as I type,so again hope that made sense?.

Look at daily on usd/jpy and 120.19 is next target so south like this one.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Morning chaps,well usd/jpy tested 120.19 last night,it and eur/jpy are looking a bit roundy top on the hourly so maybe back to test 120.19 and 156.58,see how we go.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/2562/fxcccpo3.png

A trading "U" the right way up,it went through my top line while I was loading it,look at my hourly bottom line and where it turned for the trend line up.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img364.imageshack.us/img364/7795/fxvvcl5.png

And it's same way mate.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

I am reading what you post miner! and always interested too. Well I'm out for the night after scalping 20 on Eur Jpy after it broke out of its daily range on the upside and 55 (in demo only )for the AUD/NZD. So a constructive session if not hugely profitable but a win is a win and I'm happy to grow the a/c slowly.:)
Watch out for the volatility later with the NFP at 2:30 am our time.

[Steve]

Thanks for taking the time with your posts, Miner. Very interesting and much appreciated!:)

[miner]

Thanks for the comments guys,now I know how to post charts on ST I will keep posting when I can,although allot may be after the trade has happened as to busy to post if they are on the move,but even with this it will show you what I call trading patterns and then you can look for them.

Trading patterns can be in and out in a flash or can keep you in for a day or two,depends how they play out.

As I don't talk the charty lingo I am glad you now know what I have been going on about by looking at the charts,will try and post comments with them but they will be in tea leaf lingo.

Why I said look at my bottom line on the hourly on my last eur/jpy chart was that it was a ress line (look at the tops of the hourly candles to the left of my trend line),so once it spiked through you look for it to come back and test the ress,and if holds is then supp,then the spike high is ress,so you can work your stop on these lines also.

Anyway rambling on so catch you later.

Good on ya peat a win is a win in this take the money and run game.

Cheers
miner

[peat]

Oh and by the way everyone - I have heard from Arco and hes ok, just having problems with getting a decent connection to the interweb after moving house!
stupid telecom.

[peat]

yeh I was fully suckered twice on the yen last night miner! but I scraped a few back later on USD/CHF just to keep the a/c intact.
its amazing how in this game even when you're direction is right you can lose. Doesnt happen often that your direction is wrong and you win (as some form of karmic compensation either).

[miner]

Hi Peat,yep not a game for someone with a dodgy ticker that's for sure,a few of my rules,be patient and wait for the trade,push it and you loose,so when messy as it is today don't play,once in the money stay in it as in as soon as you can put a break even stop on,so if you are up say 20 pips don't end up down 20 pips on that trade.

Last night was messy so I did zip,and I cant see anything worth playing on my 4 at the moment.
As for right way and loose been there done that so now I look for the safe get a gap straight away entry and often this entails buying coming into supp or ress NOT on supp or ress,so if you see a target and can see it happening jump on,I mentioned this the other day it gives you room to move,so it can test the target.

Hope that lot made some sense?.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/5999/fxcvfr8.png


Peat to me this is yuk and dont play,if there was a good spike up or down on the hourly from last night them you have a potential target but as it is sit on your hands and wait,dodgy so why risk it.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/6523/fxrtrq8.png

Just got home again to see this U ,I know it's all but done,but posting it to show a trading pattern to look for,so the top line is the days high,so going on what I posted before about buying early for a pattern target,this was a long but now as it is close to the target there is more risk,so if see to late wait and see what it will do when it gets to the target.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Time to buy,this is a hard one to explain but I always look at the time before I buy,if things are looking good then soon after the hour can be good as it has a whole hour to get to it,or to close to the end of the hour not enough time to do it,don't buy,but then there is the run into the hour one.

Watching for a 15min candle to end,all good buy,so as you can see not easy to explain on a keyboard but watch the time for entry's.

Also daily is big picture,hourly targets,15min looking good,5min fine tune the entry,as usual not that simple but roughly it.

If my ramblings are of help let me know,as if not wont bother,fine either way.

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by miner

If my ramblings are of help let me know,as if not wont bother,fine either way.

Cheers
Miner

Keep it up, Miner!:)

[miner]

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/8456/fxgggfq4.png

Ok you asked for it:D,if you look at these same way charts they both turned north at 13.00,but also look back at the colour of the candles to my zoom in,they are the same colour on each pair.

So usd/jpy has gone through my target (last chart) but was messy at target (5min) but as said if you see the pattern jump on early then you could give it room at target to go through,if had done that stop now just below target so it can test it,if holds yippee,if not you still made some pips,"edit" it has already tested it so if does again will probably go through it,now looking for both of these to roundy top and go south,eur/jpy testing around 155.76 (on the daily).

Back to these charts,not the best example but usd/jpy hourly gave you the jump on what eur/jpy was going to do,see usd/jpy went before eur/jpy,so it was telling you which way eur/jpy was going to break.

While I think of it I don't trade solely on the 5min as you get nailed to easy but on a combination of all 4 charts for each pair.

There endith miners 101 lesson on FX for now;).

Cheers
Miner

[pago]

hi miner,iv been looking at trying forex for a few years,two friends doing well,another not so,any clues?whats the best,ok computer programne.why did you move into forex from shares,i realise it can be quick money or lose your shirt,my interest is because one can gain on up and down movements,cheers pago,

[miner]

Hi Pago one of the reasons I switched to FX is that it's far less work and time consuming and I don't have to keep my finger on the pulse of X amount of shares,but that is due to the tea leaf system I thought up and use(same as I had own system for shares,speaking of which there is one I posted on a while back that is doing ok and no one has posted on,will post again on it if it gets to 100% gain).

I don't read anything and can turn on screens and see straight away if there is a trade or not,so doesn't matter if I have not looked for a week as there is nothing to catch up on unlike shares,there is also no noise(ramping etc)and going long or short is a plus,and there are trading opps every day .

So my program is what I am posting,as in my screen set up,and then how I read that,which I have been trying to show you guys.

As for your mates and the one doing not so well hard to say but for me to get it right is NO emotions,always run stops,and stick to your rules,like when trading isolate yourself listen to a cd relax and just trade the screens,so I am breaking that rule now so not playing or will get nailed(don't take that the wrong way as has been one of those days as been busy with other stuff) but if trading do just that don't post on this site etc,no distractions.

If you where keen maybe open a practice acc and see how you go.

So hope that scrambled reply answered your question,watching 4 screens at same time so multi tasking and us guys aren't supposed to be any good at that,if not let me know and will try again but will be on weekend out of work hours.

Cheers
miner

[pago]

hi miner,thanks,i will be back in 2 weeks,need to look at a few things,and other things,cheers pago,

[miner]

http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/5291/fxfxfxbm9.png

Re the edit bit in my above post,didn't get what I call a roundy top,but a triple top thingy on usd/jpy did the trick,eur/jpy followed,anyway time to hit the hay.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi All

Back on line, but Telecom has stuffed up my Broadband transfer so I am now without fast connection. Currently dial up showing 49.2 bp, and pages are taking an age to load. Telecom say it may be 6-12 months before I can get a BB connection back again due to lack of ports. Pretty hopeless trying to post as waiting ages for something to happen

Anyway, if any one is able to pull any strings it would be greatly appreciated.

Slowly, slowly catchy monkey - regards - arco

[miner]

Evening Arco,good to see you back online even if you are a bit slow;).

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

What other internet connection options have you got Arco... Got cell phone coverage for instance from either telco? I tried Vodafone's portable modem thingy called Vodem for instance - plugs directly into computer USB port. It gave hi-speed internet.
There are satellite options that cover all NZ but they cost a bit for hardware setup eg http://www.iconz.co.nz/satellite/

[arco]

Hi Peat

I have no problem here connecting with my mobile phone (Vodaphone).

However, I think the Vodaphone coverage north of AKL may be a bit dodgy, but I understand Telecom also have a wireless option which may be more stable.

I will look into that possibility tomorrow.

regards - arco

[Xerof]

Arco, would this be too much of an eyesore on your front lawn?

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/8587/satellitedishpu8.jpg

regards
Xerof

[Steve]

What time does the FX market close for the week?

I thought that it was 10am GMT (11am NZT) on Saturday re-opening Monday morning?

Just asking as I was playing around in the CMC demo system and tried to place an order at 9:20am GMT (10:20am NZT) but my order was declined as "market closed" despite that the quotes & charts continued updating until 10am GMT (11am NZT).

Steve

[peat]

yes I noticed late and volatile movement in the markets this morning Steve. Its usually over by 11 AM our time in my experience, but today kept going a bit longer.

[Steve]

Maybe the demo mode closes early?

I will email CMC to clarify the actual closing time for the week.

Peat, have you found out how responsive STOP orders are? I have been trying to set some up in demo mode as a test. It would make me more confident to walk away from the computer room while in the middle of a trade.

[peat]

Steve , I never get stopped!! [:o)]

I've always had stops and limits filled accurately in forex with CMC. Gaps (either following a weekend or a major news event) could of course see one closed with slippage, tho CMC do offer (for a fee) a guaranteed stop.
My experience of CMC in demo was abysmal tho, not worth the effort. The software sucked (it was quite diff from the real version) and they quickly admiitted that when I talked to them about it.

IMO its better to trade small positions using the real programme to build confidence.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by peat

Steve , I never get stopped!! [:o)]

I've always had stops and limits filled accurately in forex with CMC. Gaps (either following a weekend or a major news event) could of course see one closed with slippage, tho CMC do offer (for a fee) a guaranteed stop.
My experience of CMC in demo was abysmal tho, not worth the effort. The software sucked (it was quite diff from the real version) and they quickly admiitted that when I talked to them about it.

IMO its better to trade small positions using the real programme to build confidence.

Thanks for your opinion, Peat

[peat]

So the G7 isnt changing anything. So much discussion re Yen carry trade but Yen keeps getting weaker. (Mind you , Japan is on holiday today so markets havent really opened yet)

Chf/Jpy looked like it broke out of a pennant on Fri nite so I took a little long but closed it Sat morning + 15 due to fear of a gap over the weekend.
But nothing too negative has come out that I know of??? A few platitudes but to me it looks like this has only encouraged those who might have been holding back. Seems crazy to suggest it but I'm seeing upside breakouts and thinking theres a lot more given the recent compression and overbought indicators have mediated.

Anyone else have an opinion on where the carry trade is headed?

[clearasmud]

With the Yen now so weak carry trade borrowers etc could be feeling a little nervous so I would expect a sharp reversal later this year,maybe soon.
just my opinion,any others?.
Time to buy Yen for medium term?

[miner]

eur/jpy and usd/jpy were good today,pity I was doing other stuff,see the change of the daily was once again a good time to enter the trade.

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by peat

yes I noticed late and volatile movement in the markets this morning Steve. Its usually over by 11 AM our time in my experience, but today kept going a bit longer.

I did send contact CMC, who told me that sometimes the charts do continue updating after the market is closed

[miner]

Hi Slam I see the spreads have changed on FXCM and at the moment not for the better,but as far as I know they may improve once the US comes on line,see what they do later.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Hi Slam I see the spreads have changed on FXCM and at the moment not for the better,but as far as I know they may improve once the US comes on line,see what they do later.

Cheers
Miner


Hi Miner
I think that we are going to get a 2pip spread EUR/USD and a few others are narrowing as well. ( was due about now)
Also the ability to hedge, (take a long and a short on the same pair)

AUD spreads better
NZD Worse
See if anything changes through the day

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

We are now 1 to 2 pips better off than this morning on my ones,I think as we get into tonight they will get even better,well hope so;).

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

Apparently, CMC has recently tightened their spreads as well.

It could be a competitive thing?

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

We are now 1 to 2 pips better off than this morning on my ones,I think as we get into tonight they will get even better,well hope so;).

Cheers
Miner


Hi Miner

Are your spreads changing?
Mine vary , eg NZD/USD can be anything from 3 to 5 pip spread

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Yep say eur/usd can be 3 pips one second 4 the next,and eur/jpy is 6 at the moment,now 4,so depending on when you hit the button or the time of day better or not from what we used to have,slippage will be the next one to watch.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

Oanda fxgame (and presumably the real version as well) have variable spreads with Eur$ getting as low as 1 pip spread during the markets peak hours.
Its a good offering to customers to have variable spreads as clearly the market makers risks are much lower during sessions of high liquidity.
Steve - I havent noticed any change to CMC (who only offer fixed) spreads. But I will look again.

I hope everyones trading well, I've had a couple of setbacks , so playing it cautious at the moment ,looking at some indicators such as Chande Momentum Oscillator and SMA ADX and RSI combinations....
Dammit , where is that Holy Grail?

[roddy]

Hi Peat
how is the ellusive quest for the Holy grail going?
i have just ordered john murphys Technical analysis of the financial markets,there is a study book which goes with it, which is in my possesion,but not that relevant without the main text,Max recommends so i will post when i get into it after it arrives.
Out of interest has anybody got any thoughts on how high the kiwi is going this time?An article in the dominion today quotes some analysts stating,the kiwi is at a pivot point and could easily push toward .80 cents.

cheers roddy

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by roddy

...
Out of interest has anybody got any thoughts on how high the kiwi is going this time?An article in the dominion today quotes some analysts stating,the kiwi is at a pivot point and could easily push toward .80 cents.

cheers roddy


Hi Roddy
.80 hey. the Country would be in big trouble, export market would fall over, the bal between in and out would be way out of whack. I hope it never goes there. (to much invested offshore)

I'm still looking at the H&S, so expecting circa .72 to hold, if not they may be right, and it would be time for me to leave good old NZ if it stayed around there;)

Just imo
Cheers
Slam

[peat]

Yes I have that book Roddy , it is good - covers off all the standard stuff pretty well. I dont have that study guide tho, and would be interested to see it. I will have a search for it.
I think The Holy Grail is just down the road from the Fountain of Youth , but havent found that yet either.
Jyske Bank put out a special sell on the ComDolls today so thats Kiwi Oz and CAD. Not that Jyske Bank are very reliable (they take a very big picture ) but its kind of interesting they choose now when more people are getting converted to strength in these. I see a pennant which needs to break to confirm either way at this stage.

Big thing today of course in BOJ decision on rates.

[roddy]

Hi Peat/Slam

Yeah Slam my first reaction to reading it was exactly the same as yours,exporters would really suffer,sure we might get cheaper imports but at huge expense to our productive sector,and fully agree .72 would have to be taken out then .73-.74 area,historically looking at the monthly it hasnt stayed above .71 for any extented period!

Peat yes a good reminder of the basics can only improve my trading

cheers roddy

[peat]

i think we must remember though, that just coz it would be bad (for exporters) doesnt mean it couldnt happen.
Yen still only costs half a percent to fund. Something will need to change before this will not remain the overriding factor. A perceptual change could be enough but more likely it will be event triggered.

[roddy]

You are right Peat,it could happen,in the meantime i will try and make some $ out of trading,and await a downgrade of NZs credit rating,now that would be a good event!
p.s dont normally post so late but have returned in from spotlighting rabbits and hares which went quite well,though have to leave for work at 7.30am
cheers roddy

[miner]

Morning Roddy how many did you get?,we go possum shooting,a good night is 50-60,but last night speared 10 flounder so better than nothing.

Cheers
Miner

[shane_m]

mate can some one explain why first Friday of every month US dollar go up/down erratically.

[peat]

NFP or Non-Farm Payrolls is announced every 1st Fri of the month (Sat morning our time).
This employment statistic is considered one of the most important giving information about the growth of the US economy. Often it sparks high volatility in the USD and could be considered the highlight of the month for event trading.
Personally its a bit too risky for me to play as it often moves 50-100 pips in one direction before suddenly reversing , but sometimes I'll enter a trade after the dust has settled.

[roddy]

Hi Miner
we always used to get40-60 possums too, however the coucil poisoned the possums so last nite we only saw 2,we got about 12 hares and a couple of rabbitts,we also go fishing which i prefer to shooting,last time we got our limit on hapuka!
cheers roddy

[miner]

Hi slam can you log into your trading station?.

Cheers
Miner

[shane_m]

mate cant wait till US markets open, to go short....

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Hi slam can you log into your trading station?.

Cheers
Miner


Hi Miner
Sorry took so long to reply, was up your way and away from pc
FX Station fine. Have you got the new version?

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

No worry's slam yep have the new one,it was down the day I posted and next day got a sorry it was down email from them,eur/jpy and usd/jpy been good trading the last few days.

Lower pips is good except the spread you buy at changes,so buy say for 2 pip spread tonight and after the daily ends back up to for pips,sort of like buying a share for 10c today and tomorrow it costs you 11c.

Shane M why wait for the US to open look at the charts been ok today and busy from 6pm.

Cheers
miner

[peat]

Theres someone new started posting on the gvi forum called 'qwerty' from Andorra and hes made a couple of very good predictions lately. He posts with extreme confidence saying "You want risk free 80 pips? then...... just do this - dont ask , just trade" and posts precise targets, both of which have been quite quickly filled . Uncanny.
He did the Eur/Chf a few days ago and was bang on.
Last night he said at 7010 sell kiwi now for 6030.
I took 55 pips from it. Only a small trade tho.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by peat

Theres someone new started posting on the gvi forum

Hey Peat, where would I find this gvi forum?

[peat]

http://www.global-view.com/

[Steve]

Thanks Peat.

Another question re:CMC which you also use -

My account is in NZD, but say when I trade say the NZD/USD my resulting profit/loss shows up in my trading statements as translated to USD.

For Example:
Opening Equity Balance $1000 NZD

Sell $1000 USD @ .7010 = $1426.53 NZD
Buy $1000 USD @ .6990 = $1430.62 NZD

Closing Equity Balance $1004.09 NZD

BUT my statement shows:
NZD Balance $1000
USD Balance $2.86 (say based on current .6995)


Do you find that your profits/losses are being translated to USD?

I'm a bit confused?

[peat]

yes my profits are all in USD when I trade forex no matter which pair I trade. You have to ask for them to be repatriated back to NZD. No hurry, with kiwi falling hahah.

[Steve]

It was just a bit confusing!

Perhaps they should (or already have) bring it to your attention when opening an account?

[peat]

I'm finding it difficult to determine any entry points in this market.
Qwerty recommended selling Eur/Jpy this morning for 270 pips !!! and thats already

[Lizard]

Hi Peat,

I usually keep an eye on forex via ozforex charts, but they seem to be frozen at last Friday. Is there another site with good free charts? I don't need live prices, just want a feel for direction and magnitude of moves - especially in times like this!

Thanks,
Liz

PS: Often read your posts so thanks for posting here :) - it's all a bit quiet here considering the interesting action atm.

[peat]

Lizard , set up an a/c with Oanda fxgame or use Netdania , both provide good charts. Oanda needs a little bit of config to work eg up to date Java version and if your browser has a pop up blocker you need to allow *.oanda.com so it can open its windows. Let me know if you have any problems.

Yeh I cant believe we're not talking more with all this stuff goin on but tbh I was shorting Chf/Jpy a couple of weeks ago and just kept getting stops taken out so I gave up and then this happened damm. And now it feels too late to hop aboard so after a good week last week I'm just keeping profits intact - its easy to get over confident after wins. Preservation of capital is perhaps a little too important for me.

[peat]

Interesting comment from another trader :

Trading financial markets represents a psychological paradox to humans which is difficult to overcome. By nature we want to be more right than we are wrong in most aspects of life. This desire spells doom for traders in financial markets.

The need to be right drives psychological reflexes of greed and fear. Greed and fear are the reasons why traders engage in destructive behaviour. These include second-guessing a system, interfering, taking premature profits, letting a loss become too big, or cutting a position prematurely.

The strict and disciplined rules of system trading, as well as faithfully following the philosophy of letting profits run, automatically result in a drop in accuracy of the best systems in the world. This is fully expected, as accuracy is far less important than pay-off ratio, or size of profit. Pay-off ratio is simply the ratio between average loss versus average gain. By aiming to have a large pay-off ratio, the trader can have an accuracy ratio of as little as 25% and still make money in the markets.

[miner]

As have always said your own emotions are your worst enemy in this game,by the way peat went short eur/jpy at 151.50 on a simple "U" pattern(hourly),usd/jpy did the same,tight stop on it now tho.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Stop hit for 50 pips,should have jumped and gone long before that,not very onto it at the moment,never mind.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

New "U" pattern for eur/jpy on 15min,long at 151.16,so ok so far,thinking cant go red for ever so due for a bounce,up 81 pips for now.

Cheers
Miner

[Lizard]

Thanks Peat. Oanda works fine.

Good luck with your trades. :)

[miner]

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/6194/fxeurmi4.png

The "U" usd/jpy has done the same,went long again.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Stop hit at 152.50 while I was out,ok U trade tho.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

The good move theory,which is that other than it being a messy sideways day there is often one good move a day,then it goes sideways,so once it is over that's it for the day,after that it is messy and higher risk.

If you look at eur/jpy and usd/jpy they had good moves into and out of the daily to about 5pm,and sideways since then so harder to pick the next move.

The above helps with when to watch and when not to bother,but as there are hours to go to end of daily it will no doubt do heaps moments after I turn off in a tick,but something to watch for a number of reasons.

Remembering there is always the exception to the rule.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

;) good stuff miner...

[miner]

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/9182/22222222tn4.png

Morning Peat well was a bit sideways and not as good as during the day(been good during the day lately) but there was still a good "U" trade,usd/jpy did the same,U trades are well worth looking for.

Also see these 2 are tidier and easier to trade than my other 2.

As yesterday was,watching on the daily change is a good time to look for a trade entry.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/29/petesq7.png

Pete a "U" for the pair you play,done I know but look for another.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

I'll have a look tonite miner , busy at work today.

[peat]

OK so Eur/Jpy is leading down tonite - I've shorted USD/Jpy to follow it - 116.36 sold. again a ridiculously tight stop at 116.51 (Will consider selling again at 116.65 if it went there
TP open but 114 is a major target. Hows that for a R/R ratio lol

edit, i might make this a flexi stop actually i.e will sell if a 15 min candle closes above 116.51.

edit closed out -19

[miner]

Hi Peat there was a trade around the daily change,I was doing other things then when looked this evening thought yuck messy so just got back from floundering(got 13 but missed a nice pan sized snapper b*gger).

So anyway when it is like it has been tonight it is messy and sideways trying to decide which way it will break,so don't play,wait for it to decide.

Sure there are trades but they are messy and higher risk,when it is tidy and doing what it should,then for this game it is safe.

For me anyway if I push (look to hard) for a trade I get nailed if I am patient and wait then I just see it,and those are the good trades,like yesterdays trade into the daily then the "U" trade,the pairs were nice and tidy and had good runs.

PLEASE DON'T take the above as criticism,just me passing on what I see in my own special[:p] way.

Edit bit,charty talk,or as close as I get to it,on eur/jpy and usd/jpy the daily is a spinning top and the hourly is sideways with spinning tops and to many long tails,and 15min looks messy as also,so = get some sleep and be watching the run into the daily in the morning.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/457/lllllllllllllllhe0.png

A nice safe "U" for 50 odd pips if you were watching,I wasn't:(,just showing as example of what to look for,hope it helps;).

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/2409/xxxxxxxxh7.png

Just got home to see this lovely 100 + pip "U" trade,whats the word I'm after ? Hmm b*gger,should I keep posting these(when home will be before they happen)as in are they still any help?.

Cheers
Miner

P.S it's same way mate usd/jpy did it also.

[peat]

yeh the yen crosses really reversed back up today didnt they. USD went down 70 then up 120 - I'm suprised by that.
Antipodeans strong again too. As Jyskebanks daily publication says "After the latest turbulence on the financial markets it seems like market participants have regained their confidence and seem to have forgotten the pain and uncertainty caused the last week."

[peat]

NFP AND trade figures tonite at 2:30 am Volatility potential is high.

I just saw Mahlers 2nd at the Akl Town Hall! It was a huge orchestra with a massive choir. Some serious decibels - marvellous!

[peat]

i bought this a couple of days ago
http://ec2.images-amazon.com/images/P/0471585203.01._BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-dp-500-arrow,TopRight,45,-64_OU01_AA240_SH20_SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg

its quite interesting I might post some of its ideas when I absorb them sufficiently
It has things like Time Goal Days , and Logarithmic Spiral analysis based on The Golden Ratios.

[Steve]

It will be interesting to see what you extract from it and how good it is in application...

[peat]

yeh sure will Steve...

heres a sort of first attempt using their method (but of course I have much work to do yet).
Laying down the Fib xtensions from a 5 day period during May of last year on the basis of waiting for a major (400 pips or more) movement. So the first part of the strategy involves patience and NOT chasing things. This in itself isnt easy.
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/1888/fibextnplacementmediumdn0.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[peat]

wait for this swing to take place. you dont know when its complete of course but you wait for the first counter swing movement that results in a 38 % retracment or more that is then taken back to a new high
Obviously no new lows are acceptable and the retracment in the counterswing must be to the first fib below the new high and then back to the new high.
So in the pic you see this condition is filled and a fib extension is set up from the new high on the 5th day. Certainly you cant draw this on the 5th day but probably by 3 days after that when its hit the new high again you can put this in place. First target is the dotted line about the solid line. But dont trade the impulse movements trade the corrections, they are more predictable (oh and dont count the waves either - this book eschews wave theory for actual trading purposes)

[peat]

here I have laid down my interpretation of the books Time Goal Days to predict action and turning points. This is based around the period of time from your previously identified turning point and extending numerous times each increased in number of days by that Golden Ratio 1.618.
Here using the Oanda Fibonacci time zone indicator.



TBH I am not sure about the method of this one but this is my attempt.http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2359/tgdplacementmediumlh6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
MarketMaker doesnt have this indicator but I guess its not hard to count manually

[peat]

so now the final picture combining both the above and zooming out from approx 1 weeks data that we used to setup the indicators in May last year until we see right up to the present.

Note how much price resonates around and is magnetized towards the fib levels. And how the TGDs are 'kind of' in the right place.

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2/smediumtg5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[peat]

Here I've done it on the May Sugar contract (which I tentatively shorted a couple of days ago)
http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/9227/sugarmaymediumek7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Steve]

How did the sugar trade work out as a short?

[peat]

it was profitable thanks Steve but in hindsight I should have held it longer... I was a little overleveraged to be honest so banked things too soon.

[Steve]

Peat, how would you rate the book so far in terms of application?

[peat]

Steve - I am still enthusiastic about its strategies even if it wouldnt be unfair to criticise it from a a writing perspective. I have no regrets about buying it.

I've done a lot of research and reading over the last few years and of course fibonacci was there lurking but this is the first book that makes me think I can use it successfully. Note that I'm not necessarily succeeding at using it yet but I seem to have grasped the tool a lot more convincingly in my head from reading it.
I'm seeing turning points at various fib levels in so many graphs. Even the NZD (which they say is not a good technical trade) and admittedly is killing me a bit at the moment appears to conform.
No system will ever be perfect. So much is dependent on entry rules , stop levels, emotional containment etc....

[miner]

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/8007/slamaf3.png


Hi Peat,saw your "U" comment on the other thread,yep some ok u's there,we are looking at much the same thing just from a different angle.

Using the KISS system there was a simple trend line trade on the third daily candle on both these pairs.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi All

Its party time.......

Broadband has now been connected (at great expense).............

(Yeah Telecom stuffed up again, and I had to get a computer nerd to sort it out).

Anyway...a few xtras for you.........

News items for this week.

04-30-07 8:30am et USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
05-01-07 10:00am et USD ISM Manufacturing Index
05-02-07 8:15am et USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
05-03-07 8:30am et USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (p)
05-03-07 9:30pm et AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05-04-07 8:30am et USD Nonfarm Employment Change

GTA -arco

[peat]

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/6440/waveyqi5.gif

[miner]

Good your back Arco[8D].

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi Miner

Thanks......(trust all is good with you my friend, and the forex gods are looking kindly upon your a/c).

Its been hard (as the bishop said to the actress), ...........
but all those phone calls and countless arguments with many mindless employees at TC eventually resulted in a 'port' becoming mysteriously available. (I cant even hope to explain how loud do you really have to scream to get something happening).

All I can say is - keep bothering TC, and get yerself a case number so that you dont have to repeat the same story 1000 times.

arco - speeding along at 11.00 mbps - at last :D

[peat]

do you really get 11 MB/s thats faaast.

From Jyske Bank
Yesterday we saw the CPI from US to be
lower than expected. The sluggish economy
is helping to tame inflationary pressures
and brings forward the most likely
time for a cut in rates. The interest rate
differential should move in favour of
Europe and drive European currencies
higher.

Today’s key events
• 10:30, Jobless claims, GBP
• 10:30, Unemployment rate, GBP
• 11:00, CPI, EUR
• 14:30, Housing starts, USD
• 15:15, Industrial output, USD
• 17:00, Fed’s Kohn speaks

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes it always seems to say 11, and hopefully thats
what I'm getting.

And, now although a little late
- a few news items for this week.

Tue May 15 4:30am et GBP CPI y/y
Tue May 15 8:30am et USD Core CPI m/m
Tue May 15 9:00am et USD Long Term TIC Flows
Tue May 15 6:45pm et NZD PPI Input q/q
Wed May 16 4:30am et GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
Wed May 16 5:30am et GBP BOE Inflation Report
Wed May 16 9:15am et USD Industrial Production m/m
Wed May 16 7:50pm et JPY GDP Deflator y/y (p)
Thu May 17 7:00am et CAD Core CPI m/m
Fri May 18 4:30am et GBP Retail Sales m/m
Fri May 18 8:30am et CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

[arco]

Here you are Peat

Killing 2 birds with one stone.

A 10 pip scalp on the Aussie...and 11 mbps

Aussie could go lower of course, but hopefully
not the mbps

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/8075/audnw4.gif

regards - arco

[peat]

hmmm wireless tho, so thats probably your local network connection from your lappy to the router , not your connection to the internet as such.
go to http://www.nzdsl.co.nz/module-Speedtest.phtml
and do a speed test there see what ya get
I got this :
Download Speed: 1465 kbps (183.1 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 69 kbps (8.6 KB/sec transfer rate)



nice little scalp - its good the way oanda shows the trades on the chart, MarketMaker doesnt do that.

[arco]

Thanks Peat

Just checked and its giving 2408 download, and 126 upload

regards - arco

[peat]

yeh thats more like the standard internet speed 2.5 MB/s down ; 128k up.
I get that speed sometimes too depending on when i do the test. good to see you're no more special than the rest of us arco heheh.

[slam]

Good site peat

Download Speed: 4089 kbps (511.1 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 1925 kbps (240.6 KB/sec transfer rate)
;)
Cable

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Hi chaps,a "U" trade?,eur/jpy hourly looking to go back and test 163.88ish,usd/jpy is looking better and through on the daily,so eur/jpy should follow,anyway see how we go.

Cheers
miner

[arco]

Hi Miner (and Slam - long time no see)

Miner

I had a short term signal to go long at 163.33 but I
will be watching the area 163.71-163.80 for a possible
bear Gartley (and AB=CD) termination.

regards - arco

[miner]

Evening Arco ta for that,I went long at 163.44,on a first thought trade(often the best as in think to much and you blow it) as fired up the screens this arvo and first thing I thought was there is a nice "U".

Just moved stop to break even,if it tests my target will probably creep up behind it to see if it goes through as usd/jpy looks ok.

Went long on this a couple of days ago at 162.84(same thing first thought) but was looking at the daily for a big "U",but put an even stop on overnight and got stopped out.

But ok as first two trades for ages as still sick and feel like death,but have now got an appointment to see the surgeon,then fingers crossed the opp,when sorted will be back into it,system working well though so good.

Hope your trading going ok.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Evening Miner

Just devoured one of the wifes excellent chicken curries [:p]
and now back on line to see Eur.Jpy still going strong +42,
but currently testing the harmonic points. Tight stop now.
(Posssible Tweezer Top - 30 minutes).

Trust you will soon be able to get those problems sorted.

Best regards - arco

[miner]

Lucky for some:D,had to cook my dinner:(,now moved stop up to 163.54 ( thought at worst bank 10 pips) was 30 pips on the table a few mins ago but will give it a wee bit of room and see how we go,more of a back on the horse trade after a long break for me,and usd/jpy (daily) looks ok.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Morning Arco,well stop got hit last night as it got beaten back around your numbers,will look for it to head further north today though as usd/jpy is looking ok,see what they are like on the daily change,my direction was right so that is the main thing.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

Hi Slam I see we have new power charts,are they working for you?,or am I just the lucky one again:(.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi All

Here are some news items for this week that might affect trading.

Wed May 23 4:30am et GBP BOE Meeting Minutes
Wed May 23 6:45pm et NZD Trade Balance
Thu May 24 4:00am et EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
Thu May 24 8:30am et USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Thu May 24 10:00am et USD New Home Sales
Fri May 25 4:30am et GBP GDP q/q (p)

regards - arco

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Hi Slam I see we have new power charts,are they working for you?,or am I just the lucky one again:(.

Cheers
Miner


Hi Miner
Sorry haven't been watching forex for a few weeks now, but yes, new and improved charts, not.

If you are having probs with them, try updating your Java engine
http://www.java.com/en/download/installed.jsp
that is the link if you are using sun java.
(you will be able to tell by the icon in your taskbar. dbl click on it and it will tell you what brand and version)

If you use MS jave machine, it should update when windows updates.
but I would suggest using the sun one.

Let me know if you still have problems.

Has youre trading station been locking up as well?

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Hi Slam,ta for that but upgraded java today and charts still don't work,as for trading station usd/chf just changed as I type was stuck on 123.07(back on it now) for half an hour or more.

Talked to FXCM and they said others having chart problems also,so looks like it's the old wait until they sort it story.

Cheers
miner

[arco]

The new systems working well now since I removed a few indicators.....

http://www.themaddashforcash.com/tro/TrippyChart.jpg

[peat]

chortle chortle.

thats a trippy chart , looks like a mad dash for cash!

no trades right now... kinda knackered after a long day fighting IT fires. didnt even have time to look at the charts today at work [:I]

[miner]

Hi Slam are you still having trouble with power charts?,they start ok but as soon as you go to set up what you want they drop the connection off.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

Found this,just about as good as power charts http://www.avafx.com/tp/

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Hi Slam are you still having trouble with power charts?,they start ok but as soon as you go to set up what you want they drop the connection off.

Cheers
miner


Hi Miner
Got real problems with the trading platform as well atm.
opens then locks up, cant do a thing.[B)]
Lucky I have no positions

May have to do a re instal of everything

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

B#mmer,when you get the platform sorted have a look at the link for charts(free demo) but more importantly(for me anyway) other than a couple of things the same as power charts.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Just in case you need a kidney anytime..........

Welcome to Pakistan, the world's kidney bazaar
Indebted farmers sell them for about $2,500

November 13, 2006
BY SADAQAT JAN

JANDALA, Pakistan -- Nassem Kausar has done it. So, she says, have her sister, six brothers, five sisters-in-law and two nephews.
Each has sold a kidney to a trade that has led Pakistan's media to dub the country a ''kidney bazaar.''

''We do this because of our poverty,'' said Kausar.

A kidney nets the donor $2,500, sometimes less than half that amount, while recipients -- some 2,000 a year -- pay $6,000 to $12,000, compared with $70,000 in neighboring China.

Critics blame an economic system that enmeshes farmers in chronic debt, forcing them to sell their kidneys, and say the trade should be banned. The government says it is taking action.


Illegal in U.S.
In the United States, donating kidneys for money is banned. But the International Society of Nephrology has suggested expanding the pool of kidney donors by legalizing payment of about $40,000 to donors.
At least 20 transplant clinics exist in Pakistan, and 10 percent of the patients are foreigners, many from the Middle East and ''one or two'' from Europe, said Bakhsh Ali, a senior official at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation.


Donors need check-ups
The government has drafted legislation to ''regulate'' kidney transplants, monitor surgeries and ''encourage family donors,'' said Health Ministry official Athar Saeed Dil, who has helped draft the proposed law.
He declined to say if an outright ban was planned, but Mukhtar Hamid Shah, a prominent surgeon who opened a transplant center in 1979, said the government plans to outlaw donations for money by non-family members and impose seven-year prison sentences on surgeons who break the law.

The Sindh Institute's Ali said donors need constant check-ups to keep their blood pressure and sugar under control and protect the remaining kidney.


'I cannot run'
But some donors said they received no follow-up care.
''I pant. I cannot run. I cannot pick up heavy things,'' said Allah Yar, a 50-year-old farmer who has suffered poor health for seven years since selling a kidney.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/133877,CST-NWS-kid13.article

[peat]

Thats probably more true than the internet myths that circulated a while back such as...

"My friend's cousin's sister Fiona (Editors note: Fiona is not her real name. Her real name is Mary Ann Jedson) was vacationing in New Orleans. She met a man at a bar and they started talking. They hit it off and he bought her a drink.

The next thing she remembers is waking up in a bathtub filled with ice. There was a phone next to the bathtub with a note taped to it that said 'Call 911.'

Fiona did this and explained the strange circumstances to the 911 operator. The operator, well familiar with organ harvesters asked Fiona to slowly reach behind and feel if there is a tube protruding out of her back. To her horror she found one, luckily the 911 operator had all ready contacted the ambulance and Fiona was saved."

[arco]

In three years, 25 per cent of all foreign-exchange trading will be conducted with algorithmic trading, up from 12 per cent now, says the Aite Group.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10443567

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by peat

The next thing she remembers is waking up in a bathtub filled with ice. There was a phone next to the bathtub with a note taped to it that said 'Call 911.'

Fiona did this and explained the strange circumstances to the 911 operator. The operator, well familiar with organ harvesters asked Fiona to slowly reach behind and feel if there is a tube protruding out of her back. To her horror she found one, luckily the 911 operator had all ready contacted the ambulance and Fiona was saved."

This was a movie about 3 years ago from memory...

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

what kind of trailing stops do people use/suggest?

my book (mainly using daily/weekly graphs) suggests 4 days high/low as your trailing stop but obviously that would be adjusted to whatever period you were viewing eg 4hrs, or 4 x 15 min, or. it says put the stop below the previous valley (for a long).

[Dazza]

im a bit lost as to what that means

care for an example pls?

[peat]

for a short , take the high of the last 4 periods (days , hours , whatever time frame you used to generate you buy signal - say for last night I think you were using 15 min - ) and once the target objective has been reached if the price goes above that high of the last 4 periods then you are stopped. if price keeps going lower you keep adjusting the stop down to the high of the last four candles.

I probably need a diagram for the peak/trough method - I'll have to do that later from home.

[arco]

Dazza

Heres a diagram based on CBL (as stops) prepared awhile back, and connected to a short trade mentioned here on ST 26/04/2005 : 3:54 PM. It shows count back lines based on 3 periods. Follow the numbers (i.e 1 below relates to 1 above and shows where the stop goes, and so on). For more info google Guppy Count Back Lines.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21559&whichpage=1

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/04282005AUDCBL.gif

Hope that helps - arco

[arco]

Dazza

This shows how to get in and out using an auto system 2/CBL on Metastock.
2CBL is a bit tight IMO, and I prefer to use 3/CBL.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/Euro2CBL.gif

[Dazza]

ic ill study on it a bit

Guppy Multiple Moving Average
also that as well

With FX, charts, anyone manage to use ATR properly

for eg
using an ATR of 14, on a 15 minute chart, it gives me like 4 pips etc however 7 hours ago it was 12 pips

i read somewhere that people use 2ATR as their stop loss as well etc

[Dazza]

ok i can see the counting back on your first chart, with the 2CBL

however when does one count back? if doing manually you would do it on completion of every candle stick right?

obviously when you are not online, you dun do it, so when u come back online, you just count back 2 or 3 sticks and replace ur stop order mark.

would that be one of the reason why there is a big gap between marks 3 and 4?

[arco]

Dazza

In the case of a short you need a lower low before you re-calculate the SL. (Longs are calculated in the reverse - ie. higher high).

arco

[miner]

Well first day watching for a while and see usd/jpy and eur/jpy have had very nice runs,hope someone got a bit of them?.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

If you look at the hourly on usd/jpy and eur/jpy you will see a couple of great U trades,so the type of set up to look for,as once they have turned at the top of the U it's a fairly safe bet that they will continue to the bottom of the U.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Late entry but up 30 odd pips on the eur/jpy hourly U,usd/jpy doing the same.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Burgernomics

Its official - NZ has the dearest burgers in the world


http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9448015http://www.economist.com/images/20070707/CFN628.gif

[arco]

Will the last person to leave please turn out the light

http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/images/bulb04.gif

[peat]

you mean this forum or NZ ?

yeh sorry Arco but as you might have guessed from a private communication I'm pretty much done with forex now. In time my interest might resume from an academic point of view but right now not even that. I'd stay interested even if it broke even for me as I would like to continue in a hobbyish way, but its not smart for me to keep pouring money into it. My ultimate stop loss has been hit. I will still glance at the goings on here but wont have an opinion on much coz clearly that opinion has been wrong too often.

[peat]

someones doing ok tho !

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10450882

[slam]

Hey miner
you ok up there with all this rain?

Slam

[arco]

Hi Peat

Seems little point in posting much now as most of the forex posters have disappeared into the blue yonder, and theres no feedback.....and I cant see much point in this becoming just an 'arco blog'

I know there are lots of lurkers on here, but a forum should be exactly that - a forum

If a few more people start conversing, I can be more active here

regards - arco

[peat]

yeh I can understand that arco... where will you post mostly you think?

this happened outside my apartment the other day.
its a scaffolding fallen down on cars queued at the lights on Kitchener St
http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/1317/smashhx6.jpg[/URL]

[arco]

Morning Peat

I will not be posting anywhere else at the moment.
If I do I will PM you through ST. Sharetrader was
always a very friendly site and I made a number of
personal friends of the years. Other forums dont seem
to come close.

If you need any info you can PM me.

regards - arco

[slam]

Hi Arco/Peat
Yes has been quiet here for a while.
I have been doing allot outside of forex for quite a while now, but always watch this thread with interest.
For me it is a matter of having no valuable input.
(or you could say " better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, than open it and remove all doubt:))
As I said a few post back, I am gearing up for another run at it, but I fear that I may be in the same situation as peat, ie investing to much hard earned dosh into this learning experience.

My problems is exits, I pick up the pip's ok, just to squander them on second guessing.
(fear and greed)

Anyhow, once I am up to speed, I will attempt to post some of my thoughts.
Arco, in no way think of this as a plea for you to keep posting, I totally understand your view and would feel the same.

gta
slam

[miner]

Hi slam I was in Auckland until yesterday,got home to only one tree across the driveway and a defrosted fridge freezer as the power only just came back on.

As for your last post to me FX can often be a take the money and run game as there will always be another trade,so if you get in profit creep a stop up behind it,if you get taken out and it does more bummer but you still made some $$$ and just look for the next trade which will soon be along.

Not trying to criticize but rather pass on what I have learnt the hard way,also eur/jpy and usd/jpy are allot better pairs to play than others,tidy give good runs etc,watch them and you will see what I mean,eur/jpy is the one I play 90% of the time.

Cheers
Pat

[arco]

Tim Knight founded Prophet.net, considered by Forbes and Barrons to be the #1 technical analysis site (sold in early 2005 to INVESTools, where he is the SVP of Technology now). Tim has been trading actively since 1987 and focuses mostly on option positions. He is a dyed-in-the-wool technician, leaning heavily on marked-up charts for his analysis.

IMO Quite an interesting blog if you ever have any spare time.........

http://tradertim.blogspot.com/

[arco]

Beware........

Pump-and-dump scammers turn to Excel - Scammers using excel to bypass spam filters

http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1764332200;fp;16;fpid;1

[peat]

yeh its yet another job for us server admins to patch the Office applications as well.... more and more monthly security vulnerabilities are Office related.

(I make a living from MS slackness) ;)

Kiwi went over 81 !!! 1900 pips in two months.... butterflies or not isnt that just too much??
I dont think Bollard should hike. I reckon he could easily justify not hiking by saying he needs time to wait and let his recent hikes take more effect.
But I forgot - I vowed not to have an opinion anymore lol.

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes the Kiwi has had an amazing move - no doubt about it.

But its a hard move to stop - as I said many weeks ago.

Anyway, congratulations go to the big brown moth - perfect harmonics.

cheers - Scott;)

[aurelian]

Dear All,
What packages do you use?
Have been using Icon FX but thought that there was abetter way to approach this.
Interested in real time feed etc
Thanks

[arco]

aurelian

I use Oanda for real time (and Metastock for EOD)

rgds - arco

[Steve]

I use CMC for real-time Forex & Metastock for EOD

[arco]

Lots of lurkers around perhaps?

Sharetrader moves up 173 places to No 38 on the 'most visited Forex Websites'

http://www.forexontop.com/search/index.php

[peat]

you find some interesting websites Arco !
yeh I'm around and still making wrong calls.... see NZD thread lol

put a small amount in my account again so I can have a flutter when I feel ready. Tempted to try my hand at shorting the Dow , but we'll see.... certainly an increase in volatility lately. Central banks pumping out billions of liqudity isnt something you see every day.

Amazing to see Aud/Jpy back below 100 again after I made the big call to short it back there and it promptly went up 800 pips.

[arco]

Hi Peat

Good to see you are still around, and wishing you good fortune with your trades.

Havent read this free e-book yet...but it looks like it may be interesting....

....... As you progress from page to page you'll see the importance of Phantom's insight on trading as I have over the years. Trading is not as we all thought. Few have ever approached his methods in trading. How do you measure the worth of a man or women I still ask myself after that short walk to the top of the hill. Here is a trader who is the best trader I have ever known and perhaps the best trader in the world. We will measure his worth by his deeds and insights into trading! Yes, that's how we will size up Phantom of the Pits.

Phantom of the PIts - Art Simpson

http://www.mypivots.com/articles/booktext.aspx?bookname=Phantom%20of%20the%20Pits


arco

[arco]

Lloyds TSB is to pay out $12.5m (£6.25m) for its alleged part in a $100m-plus foreign currency scam in the United States.

Though not admitting liability, the British bank has agreed a settlement to compensate victims of the fraud in a US class action suit in the name of Ralph Gonzales, a private investor. Man Financial, the futures and derivatives trader spun out of Man group in July and now called MF Global, has agreed to pay $4.1m in the same case - again without admitting guilt.

The class action alleged that Lloyds TSB, Man Financial and the Californian accountancy firm Kaplan, Swicker & Simha aided and abetted a breach of fiduciary duty and fraud and contravened sections of RICO - the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations Act.

Mr Gonzales was one of more than 300 investors who bought into a currency scheme sold between July 1998 and February 2003 by Moshe Leichner and his son Zvi. In messages on internet bulletin boards, the two promised investors they would gain 2-4% a month by foreign currency dealing through their companies - most prominently Midland Euro Exchange. They took in an estimated $130m, including $40m from clients of one Florida investment adviser.

But the Leichners were operating a Ponzi scheme, where high returns are possible only if more and more new investors can be found to put in cash to pay out to scheme members who want to quit.

According to Debra Wong Yang, a Californian federal prosecutor, less than 20% of the money was actually invested. The rest was spent by the Leichners on themselves. They bought boats, houses and luxury cars as well as hiding away millions in secret offshore accounts.

Even though the US regulator, the National Futures Association, had barred Midland Euro from business in October 2001, and Zvi Leichner had been personally suspended in March 2000, the pair continued to enjoy banking and other financial facilities.

In 2003, the Leichners were arrested by the FBI. They pleaded guilty to wire fraud, money laundering and operating an illegal Ponzi scheme. Moshe was sentenced to 20 years, his son to 11 years.

Investors sued organisations they claimed had aided and abetted the Leichners - albeit unwittingly. After the Lloyds TSB and Man settlements, they expect to see about 30% of their money returned.

"The bank admits no liability," Lloyds TSB said. "The settlement has been reached to put an end to the distraction and expense of litigation."

http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/story/0,,2149687,00.html

[peat]

gotta say
the markets are insane!!!

Kiwi back into the 69's now
Aud/Jpy 95 !

Unlilke y'day there are a few greens on the homepage of http://www.findata.co.nz
but its still pretty much a complete bleed....

[arco]

Enjoy....relax

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEc4YWICeXk

[dumbass]

hhmmm thats how you fill your time , well how about this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-prfAENSh2k

[Xerof]

Nice - safer than trying to catch falling knives......

Long lost Xerof

[arco]

Welcome Back Xerof

arco

[777]

Does anyone have an explanation why there was a big spike in the currency graphs this morning. I thought it may have been just the NB graphs but it appears on NZ Forex as well. The top of the spike is not a logical value but because of it the graph for the rest of the day is very flat.


http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/economics/exchange/nzdtwi.htm

[arco]

777

On Oanda the charts looks OK. There was a move up to fib 618 of
yesterdays NZD.USD down move but it was over a 5 hour period.

rgds - arco

[peat]

Fed dropped their discount rate

I really was watching the Dow using 2 min candles and it jumped 300 points !

[777]

Thank you Arco for your reply. It was a big day for currency on Friday and the graph looked a bit odd to me.

[peat]

some of you may know the theory that I have worked with from a book called , Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders by Robert Fischer. Essentially it states that retracements from fib extns are tradeable back to the previous fib level. It worked beautifully on the DOW this morning on a 5 minute candle timeframe giving 50 or more points.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/4206/dow5min21082007og6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Shot at 2007-08-20

[peat]

and here in the other direction it went thru the 261 a bit, hit the 100 from the previous graph and bounced strongly , the green candle was the signal in at 13053 out at 13079. a smaller movement this time but hey pips is pips.
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/6906/dow5mins21082007re8.th.jpg (http://img441.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dow5mins21082007re8.jpg)

[hairdresser]

DO any of you huys do the carry trade?

Its looks pretty attractive.

The US guys have bailed but the Japanese retail market will probably see it as a good opportunity to buy in cheap.

I read that there were $3.5b Uridashi maturing this month, from the upwards currency move its doesn't look like its unravelling.

Short yen long Aussie may be safer as the Aussie economy is a little more stable the NZ?

Any thoughts?

[dumbass]

hi hairdresser, i would say at present the carry trade thing is too close to call ,suddenly its all about risk rather than economic fundementals . the carry trade block is now coupled very closely to equity markets which will remain very volatile for a while to come. the carry trade was a one way bet in a unique low risk enviroment which has certainly turned, so im not so sure yield is king any more. i have dipped my toe in nz aus market last few days but the rebound feels as though its lacking momentum so looking to get out .

[hairdresser]

Thanks I've just been reading about the good returns the US funds have been getting on the. Looks to good to be true. But I expect the US to get back into it and the dollar should get a nice run up.

I've never played the currency but theres still a lot of Japanese yen floating around looking for a home.

[dumbass]

hey peat , i like your charts , how do you post a chart avoiding those thumbnails

[peat]

I just use the command Alt-Printscreen and then paste it into MSPaint. Save it as a jpeg file then host that file on imageshack . If the image was a large one then I need to tell imageshack to resize it for me if I didnt resize it myself. Then you get the link off imageshack and place it it in your post. Imageshack also offers thumbnails as in my most recent picture.
Some people use other image hosting websites and say its easier but nothing that difficult about imagehack I reckon.
Practice a bit until you get it right - this forum allows you to edit or delete your posts so theres no harm in practising.

But after typing all that I now see that the upgrade to sharetrader allows you to use them as a host....
just click on manage attachments in the additional options section when you're making a new post.

[miner]

Evening chaps a friend wants me to look at nzd/gbp and nzd/eur for them but I don't have those pairs with the charts I use,so can someone give me a link to some (free) charts that do ?,don't have to be anything flash.

Hope you are all making good pips,I have been grabbing a few with eur/jpy last few days,great pair to trade.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

dont know any that use those miner.


Heres todays gem from BlackSwanTrading

FX Trading – Another calm before the storm?
The bad boys at the Federal Reserve are sure looking good right about now. Their little surprise discount rate maneuver last Friday has really quieted down financial markets this week.
Not only are global equity markets rebounding, but the currencies have stabilized as well. What’s being most closely watched is how the Japanese yen is performing.
Practically a fool-proof indicator, the yen moves inversely with risk-taking. If risk-taking is prevalent in the marketplace, yen are being borrowed and the value of yen falls. If risk is being pared back, then yen borrowings are being repaid and the value of yen rises.
After surging as much as 10% since the end of June, investors are wondering, “What’s up with the yen?”
All week it’s slowly drifted lower versus the buck. In fact, it’s nearly touched a 38% retracement of its most recent rally.

[miner]

Ta anyway Peat,if anyone else knows of where I can get charts for these pairs that would be great,I just presume there must be charts but if someone knows for a fact that there isn't then let me know.

Peat hope your back trading and doing ok ?,eur/jpy is a great tidy pair to trade,look at the last few days,some easy pips for this game.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Evening chaps a friend wants me to look at nzd/gbp and nzd/eur for them but I don't have those pairs with the charts I use,so can someone give me a link to some (free) charts that do ?,don't have to be anything flash.

Hope you are all making good pips,I have been grabbing a few with eur/jpy last few days,great pair to trade.

Cheers
Miner

Hi Miner
EUR/NZD GBP/NZD Chart http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-charts/?cmbChart=NZD

sometimes you have to hit the refreash button to get a connection after selecting a new pair

Hope this helps
Slam

[dumbass]

...... all these sharetrader meetings ,hey why cant we have a party too ,we could have it in the back of Arco's white Bentley .

[miner]

Ta slam but was after one's with the nzd first,may not be able to get them ?,anyway hope all is well in your neck of the woods.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Ta slam but was after one's with the nzd first,may not be able to get them ?,anyway hope all is well in your neck of the woods.

Cheers
Miner

Miner
Just look at it upside down:p
Just got back for 2 weeks in Phuket, so struggling to get back up to speed with all these interuptions. Never mind, needed the break.

Cheers
Slam

[POSSUM THE CAT]

MINER Yahoo Finance will give you some simple ones for up to 5years. Just set up a portfoilio like NZDAUD=X then click on symbol and click on the time frame you want from selection just below chart

[arco]

An interesting read from Rob Grespi of Forexbastards

Due to the recent market volatility, provoked by the sudden "subprime loan debacle", many subscribers have been interested to know my personal view on this subject, especially that it is something I have been talking about for the last 4 months. But before I go on with this little dissertation I want you to understand that I don't pretend to be an economist, I simply use "basic economics 101", which is something our financial leaders maybe should use.

Basically, when it gets to be complicated and does not make sense, chances are it isn't right. However I am convinced that they basically complicate the principles of a healthy economic logic so that the average unaware person gets lost and therefore doesn't ask any questions in fear of sounding stupid, or they just repeat what they hear on the media to sound educated during cocktail parties.

I told my subscribers in the room that the recent hasty moves from the Fed, (from several massive injections of cash into the market to the recent 1/2 point rate cut was a desperate and hasty move. This "patch the holes" moves, is rendering the market a great disservice, and it will make things a lot worse for the long term.

Basically, the Fed is adding water pump to a sinking ship, instead of fixing the holes, and eventually the ship will sink anyway, because nothing has been fixed. But I don't think they care, they need to make the masses feel better now, because they need a happy consumer to keep on buying crap.

However as harsh as it sounds and as painful as it will be (but not a politically popular move) it is a needed economic cycle, needed to purge the excess and this imbalance that have been created in order to begin a new healthy, and lasting positive economic cycle. The "band aid solution" ( "instant feel better") will only delay the inevitable and once it comes, instead of going thru a "mild and short recession" it will be a lot more painful possibly creating if not a depression but at least a SEVERE long and VERY painful recession .

This credit debacle is far more serious than most even begin to realize, and here is why I think so:

I have been talking for quite a while now (way b4 all this emerged) that we are at a critical credit and liquidity imbalance , and it goes all the way down to the low income consumer. Our consumption society as a whole is now mostly based on borrowed money, practically no one nowadays has the discipline to save his cash to buy XYZ item or a car or take a vacation. Most spend more time planning "credit vacation" than they spend planning healthy finances.

For example I have witnessed in both Europe and the US (I have lived in both continents long enough and have the advantage of knowing both very, very well) and observed consumption habits on both continents and the similarities are very scary, of course the US is by far still the "the leader of the pack".

In general I have observed that families with medium limited incomes were basically shopping on credit most of the time, either for clothes, cars, food, electronics, and vacation. During X-mass time I was amazed to see so many getting trapped in the "buy now pay later" ingenious concept of stores, not to mention store's credit cards which of course are a dangerous sucker trap. Nowadays just about everything they have in their house doesn't belong to them, but to the financing company, and that includes X-mass toys and vacation they took 2 years ago that they are still paying for, and of course expensive cars.

In my parent's days they saved for everything. But at the end whatever they had in their house was 100% paid for, their vacation was 100% paid for, and they still managed to save some hard cold cash for rainy days.

Today the people not only don't have a decent nest egg, they just don't have any, but they drive Mercedes, BMW's, have entertainment centers that would make George Lucas look like a hobo....

In my parent's days whomever was driving an expensive car (well most of the time) really could afford it and actually had money. Today I see in Europe for example, 20 year old kids making 1.500 euro/month at best driving expensive automobiles. Basically, this consumption society is completely out of whack and is imbalanced.

So when it comes to people and real estate, why are we so surprised? It is the same mentality, they have used their overpriced houses like an ATM machine, courtesy of clever and creative financing method to either make some other ludicrous over priced real estate acquisitions they can't afford (hell, they could barely afford the first one in the first place if it had not been for ("creative mortgage facility"), or buying all types of useless adult toys, not to mention extravagant home improvements or vacations.

They bought into the nonsense of these realtors and the media that real estate would go up indefinitely, these realtors, most of whom are no more than improved shoes salesmen and Tupperware housewives have been taught in an 8 hours seminar learning the cookie cutter classic economic theories why real estate will always go up. The funny thing is I hear the same logic being used in the US and in Europe. They all must attend the same 8 hours seminars, and all become economic experts at the end of it, why not!!! They have certificates of completion to prove it...And the media is basically owned and operated by the ones that want the mass to consume and spend for the benefit of some other companies they own. "The basic Asylum runs by its patients"

Now you might think what is then the relationship with subprime loan? well here it is in a nutshell: ( I will simplify the process for you):

This is what Banks, and financial institutions do (which are more worried of making short term money to obtain fat bonuses and fat executive salaries):

They borrow money in Yen (Japan has the lowest interest rate of all industrialized country) actually at almost 0 %, and they either invest in equity and debt markets around the globe (also creating a bubble on borrowed money, btw), and also they loan that borrowed money to other financial institutions that create all sort of "exotic mortgages", and "credit facility", you name it. Then some other layers of financial institutions re-package all these different forms of loans into high yield financial instruments to be parceled out and sold back to the financial institutions that had borrowed money in the first place. Basically, they are creating a gigantic credit Ponzi scheme on borrowed money with the consumer as its base for guarantee, and since the consumer himself is over extended, I don't need to tell you what will happen next.

Of course we try to find an easy typical fall guy "Wall Street" for creating all these derivative instruments, all they did is they found an opportunity and ran with it to make money.

The real "crew of culprits "are the highest and also the lowest level on the food chain, the higher ones: well, we vote for them and the mass buy into their self serving demagogic promises and speeches, the lowest one is the consumer gullible naivety, and greed.

Almost all financial experts want us to believe that whatever the fed is doing is good. Think again.

This will not save the people that are about to lose their homes, this will not save the basic overextended consumer, since most all exotic Mortgage and credit companies are closing their doors anyway, and even the conservative ones are now on "survival mode", they will not cut any slack to the overextended and delinquent consumer, on the contrary. No matter how much liquidity the FED is pouring and no matter how many times they cut rates. The surviving institutions are now in contraction mode, too busy doing damage control or even saving themselves. The only money they will loan back in the market will be to people that don't need it.

The only thing you will see will be fake "dead cat bounces" but at the end the real estate is "cooked" (actually it has been cooked for over 2 years , the masses just didn't know it yet and still don't even know it or to what extend it will be cooked). Houses that are sold today for 2 million dollars they will be lucky to get 1 million for it, and if they even get that.

Keep in mind that in the next year another $700 billion or so of "adjustable mortgage are due to reset, that is over $170 billion more than this year, and more adjustable mortgages will be reset after 2008.

This massive liquidity and credit imbalance which started over that last 20 years or so is only about to enter a severe readjustment and it has barely just begun. I just don't know how long and how it will play out, but it will play out.

Of course the Fed/government will play some of its "voodoo" economic short term magic tricks just in time to benefit some "crooked, lying, greedy, performing monkey ass politicians" election or re election, and it will make the "masses" feel better in short term, just in time to cast their vote, all this trumpeted by their favorite interested (paid off or own) accomplices "cheer leaders", the media.

Also don't forget, because it is related and will play a major role in this grand skim of things, that the US is running an unprecedented account deficit , basically in less than 8 years the current US administration have borrowed more money than any other administration put together, so if the country enters a severe recession ( which I think it will ) not only the US government does not have a "nest egg" but it has blown its wad by already overextending itself "debt wise" and in a period of decent economic time I may add, (for their own benefit btw, but that is another subject all together) .

So when we finally enter this severe recession the US government has already blown most of its "borrowing options"(during the good times), the only option it has left will be to go much deeper in debt rendering the US dollar as valuable as the pesos, the consequences of that will also be severe, and they will have to raise taxes drastically, just to pay the " bar tab" of the previous administration. So when I hear deficit don't matter they will re think that theory very soon, but of course the "fearless leaders" who left the restaurant with this "orgy tab" will be out of office by then, enjoying their pontificated retirement and collecting book deals, consulting deals, speech deals, and other corporate deals they worked out before, leaving the already over extended US taxpayers to pick up the "orgy bill" (via increased taxes) for decades to come. Hell, the US taxpayers are still paying for the S&L debacle they don't even know it, but trust me there (that was when Mr. Bush senior was VP, interestingly enough, most best S&L debacle asset that went into auctions were picked up at ridiculous bargain prices by some of Mr. Bush Senior's friends .The public was only allowed to bid for the chairs and tables and the bailout package was provided again- courtesy of the taxpayers.

[arco]

Quote - DA...... all these sharetrader meetings ,hey why cant we have a party too ,we could have it in the back of Arco's white Bentley .


DA - sounds like an possible idea for the FX guys and gals to get together for a
Sunday morning coffee maybe - AKL city-Ponsonby-North Shore-suggestions?

Anyone else interested?

If so DA can perhaps start a thread

rgds - arco

[peat]

i would come along if it was central ...
twould be nice to meet people.

bring your own butterfly.

is there still that cafe in high st called Fibonacci?

[dumbass]

evening guys , count me in i've got me red carnation ready

[arco]

OK - 3 so far.

Amazing name for a Cafe Peat - have you tried their fare?

Fibonacci Cafe
43 High St
Auckland Central
Auckland City
09-359 9115

Make mine a number 1618 please, with a 786 on the side.

If Miners around he might be persuaded to come along.

[peat]

I popped on once to praise the name to the person there but no I never have partaken.
i'll check its status tomorrow and report back.

[Xerof]

I'll keep an eye on your arrangements - might be able to jack up a 'visit' to Auckland....providing the exchange rate is favourable

Xerof

[dumbass]

hey xerof , if your coming from a far then i think we can do a bit better than a coffee morning