View Full Version : General Chit-Chat
didnt make it to High St today works in the other direction.
had to send my Dad his Fathers day prezzie. yeh i know its late.
have alittle USD long here
picked it up at 1.2030 overnite on a limit. its hovering around positive.
target that next fib extn at 1.21ish.
http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/4681/usdchfhourly31082007zo3.th.jpg (http://img181.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usdchfhourly31082007zo3.jpg)
Fibonacci cafe doesnt exist anymore....
must have been a false breakout.
Xerof
03-09-2007, 02:50 PM
LOL
Killer wave C....
You don't mind if a sharetrader like myself joins in with the FX meetup do you? What better way to learn than to hang out with you lot?
Year of the Tiger
03-09-2007, 07:05 PM
You don't mind if a sharetrader like myself joins in with the FX meetup do you? What better way to learn than to hang out with you lot?
:( amr_c is defecting...... boooo hoooooo.........
roddy
04-09-2007, 08:20 AM
Hi xxamr_corpxx
will look forward to seeing you at meeting though i am still looking for a ride to Auckland ,as Xerof hasnt been forthcoming in offering me a
seat on the lear as yet!
will look forward to your posts,
cheers
roddy
dumbass
04-09-2007, 08:37 AM
sleepy night in forex land , anybody getting any ?
roddy
04-09-2007, 08:53 AM
H i Db
no pretty quiet,i am short on kiwi on failure of .71 , looking for the daily downtrend from 80 to hold,that was yesterday,today still in trade but will see what happens
dumbass
04-09-2007, 08:59 AM
i m trying to look a little more medium term with trades , cutting them a bit of slack , still going on that aus short
roddy
04-09-2007, 09:07 AM
yes the best money seems to be medium term
dumbass
04-09-2007, 09:15 AM
you know it is, but sometimes things gyrate around so much it really tests the position of your stops as well as the size of your kahunas. anyway good luck roddy i guess we are both hoping they wheel out that cliched "sub prime woes" for a nice carry trade short.
off to cut the grass
dumbass
05-09-2007, 09:24 AM
IMPOSTER ALERT
Threads: 4,437, Posts: 139,638, Members: 3,666
Welcome to our newest member, xeroff
Xerof
05-09-2007, 11:23 AM
Stalker....:D
the Deal NZ are giving away 2 x $10,000 Holiday prizes.
Subscribe and win a $10K trip anywhere in the world!!
That's right, subscribe to our deal alerts newsletter, d-mail, before September 7th and you will be in the draw to win a $10K trip to any destination in the world. Plan your trip and we'll foot the bill to the tune of $10K.
For anyone that might be interested..........
http://comp.thedeal.co.nz/ref/27390
Xerof
As you have a long trip, do you want to put up some dates that might suit you
Possible participants so far........
Peat
Dumbass
Xerof
xxamr corpxx
Roddy
arco / Mrs arco
rgds -arco
good call arco -
Tho it would have been cool at Fibonacci its not like theres any shortages of places to meet in Auckland - I'd even have you all round to my apartment (CBD ) if that suited better tho its smallish and parkings a pain. Tis an option tho.
dumbass
06-09-2007, 08:40 AM
H i Db
no pretty quiet,i am short on kiwi on failure of .71 , looking for the daily downtrend from 80 to hold,that was yesterday,today still in trade but will see what happens
go roddy !!!!!!
roddy
06-09-2007, 09:18 AM
Hi DB
just been reading Phraedus,s fbu strategy been holding for 7 yrs and hes a techie,i have a mentality that when i am 100 pips up i tend to monitor the trade to closely and end up banking it,not always a good strategy and as we both know long term is where the best money is!
But stocks are a bit different methinks. Currency is more cyclical with the overall shape closer to a sine wave pattern and impulsive being in either direction , whereas for stocks long term and especially stock index's impulsive is generally up.
My fibonacci retracement strategy applies less well to stocks over longer time frames i.e retracements are often less than they should be according to the theory.
but yeh I enjoy Phaedrus stuff too. according to him the market is out of its caution phase now.
dumbass
06-09-2007, 09:56 AM
yeah suffer the same curse , i am really trying to set up more medium term trades but wondering if to return to equities where i have more success in trading. i was thinking about applying harmonic trading patterns to big cap nzx asx and seeing how they go.
i really rate phaedrus , his style is simple but elegant just nice to view.
here is a perfect bat on telecom , fired while i was on hoilday at $4.15 havent really looked at that much just a simple low maintence trade then i ve got that aud , sweating over the poor stats out of us , hoping risk comes back in the market, its just not moving then the arcomeister oscillator fires a divergence , so i think im out for about 30 pips , well and truly earned and hard yards. i really need to hone my skills on forex cant wait to speak to everyone at get together.
DA
Butterflies and Gartleys work just as well on shares,
you will just have many more charts to trawl through.
If you trade the US stock market there is I believe a
website that scan US stocks everyday for fibonacci/harmonic
patterns. That makes life easy.
The secret with forex trading is to keep it simple, get
to know a few pairs intimately, and concentrate on using
the same indicators all the time. Almost anything will work
if you give it time, with money management being the key
to success.
rgds - arco
dumbass
06-09-2007, 12:17 PM
hi arco , i notice the guys who are good seem to keep it simple or maybe they just make it look simple. i like the idea of getting intimate with a few pairs and selecting a couple of indicators i still feel at the moment im thrashing around without a definitive plan to excute. which indicators work for you , im having trouble recognising the ones you post.
i think im guilty of using indicators but not really knowing , absolutely exactly what there telling me. so wouls appreciate your top two or three.
DA
Generally I use Fibo for harmonic patterns and targets. (Carney/Pesavento/Hobbs)
Minimal Elliot Wave for approx counts and for trying to decide if impulsive/corrective.
Trendlines, divergence.
I mostly use in the lower pane QStick @/or DiNapoli Stochastic
All this info is readily available on the web for free.
Even Gann can be found on the web, but its a minefield, and IMO you can manage without that info.
rgds - arco
dumbass
06-09-2007, 01:23 PM
thanks arco good stuff
Xerof
06-09-2007, 03:32 PM
Arco,
I haven't any firm plans at the moment - might be better to arrange this amongst yourselves, and I'll see if it works for me.
Xerofffffffff.....:cool:
roddy
06-09-2007, 09:24 PM
Hi DB
if you dont mind me asking in terms of when you say you are more successful at trading shares ,is that better bottom line or completed trades or less stress, better risk reward,guess my analytical mind is just curious to find out your definition of success,mine has been to focus on percentage return on my account,but i am rethinking that strategy and want too focus more on once on a trade,how many pips that were on offer did i bank,not sure as yet how to quantify that
i think for me the attraction of fx over shares is that within a short time i know whether i have got it right or not,there isnt much middle ground for too long, (tho CAD mite be the exception for the moment)and to be able to make $ when a pair is going south is great!
DA
The US pattern reconition web-site is noted below, but it doesnt look
like they do Gartleys/BFs yet (or currencies)
http://www.trade-ideas.com/GettingStarted.html
rgds - arco
dumbass
07-09-2007, 06:20 PM
hi guys , i reckon in some ways the approach of our resident guru's in some way reflects the different skills you need for the eqity/ forex thing. from my level of technical ablity equities seem to be the go. phaedrus has simpler style that i can readilly follow , understand and apply , equities trend very consistently giving simple entries , sl etc ,
indices give you the trend , sectors show you where you should be sticking your readies. some uptrends last for years
on the other hand arco adopts a more complex style a lot harder to understand imo ,using more indicators that im not fully versed in and even if i am seems to use them in diferent ways . the forex market seems quicker and more dynamic and thats why im getting beaten with a q stick. i know trends are present but they seem harder to ride .
so being honest ive allways made money on equities and have so far lost money on forex.
but its been really stimulating and i simply will get there.
my main motivation comes from a belief that this bull market is entering its final phase , its been such a long run that a lot of people will not have experinced a bear market . i was trading qqq and nasdaq stocks very ignorantly looking back but did really good because the bull market saved me and decided to shift money into property here againing saving me . i admit i was lucky but still followed the nasdaq bear market closely , it was vicious and in some ways had a profound impact on my trading
its really diificult to short small med cap stocks in nzx asx and therefore decided forex would give oppurtunity to carry on trading if/when the bull market ends.
sorry got a bit carried away , im a bit embarrased to post it now but somebody might like to share some views
im definintly learning a lot and thank both our gurus for their generous posts
in some ways i would like to give all my money to arco and phaedrus and just let them get on with it but on the other hand its a great feeling to put a good trade together
What brokers are you using for forex? Is CMC markets any good?
xx
I've recently downloaded their platform to have a look, and
I also noticed some reviews for them on Goforex.
http://www.goforex.net/reviews/cmc.htm
(You will find all brokers get their share of bad press).
Suggest you may like to check this thread out as well
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=25680
rgds - arco
DA
Forex is a diference ball game, but there is a way through the minefield.
Simplicity.
Dont feel you have to be trading all the time.
Wait for the right set-ups.
Money Management. VERY IMPORTANT
Add a little Fibonacci and candle patterns.......how easy was this Gartley?.............
.................already hit its first target with the potential for more.
regds - arco
More info on Butterflies, etc here
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f46/collection-butterflies-17228/
.
.
.
Trading Tips
Waiting for the right opportunity increases the probability of success. You don't always have to be in the market.
You must be so sure of a trade that it seems as easy as picking money off the floor.
Vengeance trading is a sure recipe for failure.
dumbass
07-09-2007, 11:47 PM
hi arco , on the night shift
now picking your brains on that nokia trade
that oscillator is showing divergence between b point and d point
also divergence on the d point spike
sharp pull back out of prz after testing fib levels
feasible entry at open of candle after high on d point say 5.93 say stop a pip or two above
d point high
is that first target box a rough 61.8 or is it more than that , i can see trend line running through a - c point , which has broken
when would you have entered , where would you place sl
is the relevance of the circle on oscillator the fact it has broken trend line then retested indicating direction of move will continue
why does trend line colour change
what is that second target is that from another pattern or from pattern shown
sorry to be a right royal pain in the ass
I'm a newbie at TA, but at a guess :
Prices are heading down, but the latest low of the oscillator failed to fall below the previous low, so there is a bullish divergence.
DA.
You perhaps need to get a few books on Fibonacci and study.
Derek Hobbs - out of print but you may be able to buy S/H
Larry Pesavento
Dynamic Trading - Robert Miner.
Also heaps of info on the web.
re...............now picking your brains on that nokia trade
FYI that USD.NOK - not Nokia
Targets are always based on Fibonacci retracements, extentions, or projections.
see Money Tec, Khalsapad, Sharetrader forums for examples, and your Carney books
when would you have entered , where would you place sl
Entry is always based on risk / reward, being different for each situation and
would also vary depending on each traders situation, etc, etc etc. In this case just below the High Wave candle
is the relevance of the circle on oscillator the fact it has broken trend line then retested indicating direction of move will continue
why does trend line colour change
Yes, and the colour change was fixed by me - to show readers that support has possibly turned to resistance.
what is that second target is that from another pattern or from pattern shown
Fibonacci again.
To answer in great depth would day quite a few pages, so hope this
quick reply will be of some help.
rgds - arco
xx
I've recently downloaded their platform to have a look, and
I also noticed some reviews for them on Goforex.
http://www.goforex.net/reviews/cmc.htm
theres a good review of CMC in that link by 'getum'
I reviewed them as well here in a thread called MarketMaker 5
I've got nothing against their platform or execution.
dumbass
10-09-2007, 10:53 PM
ha ha !!
cover short in nokia immediately
thanks arco , much appreciated with your posts and i shall track down some of the books you recommended.
Hi Peat
Did you use CMC live or demo?
rgds - arco
DA
Perhaps you should.............
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/n/nok
I use CMC for real trading.
Thanks Peat
Having downloaded the CMC platform I discovered how to place an order, but how do you attach target price and stop loss?
thanks - arco
(Oanda's platform seems a breeze to trade on after looking at CMC and also MPT)
Change the order type from market to OCO and then set the two prices
or I think you can set a linked order from your current positions window - I'm not at home right now so cant check it.
one limitation I've noticed tho compared to Oanda is that if you set a limit order (to start a new trade) you can then only set either a stop loss OR a take profit as a dependent order.
MarketMaker as a trading platform is quite ugly and less intuititive than Oanda (fxgame) I've made mistakes due to this eg leaving an OCO order alive after manually closing the trade the OCO was related to - whereas in Oanda it is so much easier to link stops and targets with the original order and when the trade is closed the stop and target orders are closed automatically.
But it does work.
Thanks Peat - I'll check that out.
Agree with you - the CMC platform is pretty ugly, and very severe on computer power.
Running CMC and Oanda together certainly slows the performance way down.
Oandas Trade platform and Game appear the same. I often have both running for comparison and they vary slightly on price and movement occasionally, but the difference is miniscule.
I'm reasonably happy with Oanda, but not so keen on the fact that account moneys are not segregated.
rgds - arco
Couldn't agree more.
I trialled CMC the marketmaker platform and found it quite frustrating. Not very intuitive. Power hungry and hence not so nimble. Perhaps I was a bit slow but also some functions required going through various menus to get to as well.
One thing I did like about it was the "one stop shop" factor: CFDs, Forex, Metals etc
FTG
Who are you trading through presently - PM me if you prefer.
Thanks - arco
dumbass
13-09-2007, 11:44 AM
morning arco , just going back to my homework. which Larry Pesavento book do you recommend.
thanks
DA
Pesavento and Hobbs would interest you, however for exceptional value and content I recommend Dynamic Trading: Dynamic Concepts In Time, Price and Pattern Analysis With Practical Strategies For Traders and Investors - Robert Miner - available from Amazon $50 s/h.
IMO this would be a great addition to your Carney books, and perhaps the only one you will need to bring all the harmonic concepts into a trading scenario. (*Miner does not mention BFs, Gartleys, but you will visualise them in the charts and the Fib info is relevant and priceless).
Check it on Amazon, and forget the odd 1 star review its definately a 5 star. Heres one review that sums it up nicely.
This is a huge binder-sized book, packed with so much information it's a bit daunting at first. But it's worth the work, as it is one of the best books around for people who want to learn the art and science of trading in a disciplined fashion. Miner focuses his teachings on ideas developed by Gann and Elliot having to do with dynamic ratios and patterns in financial markets. Thus there is a lot here about Elliot wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios. However, he tempers these academic theories with a heavy dose of common sense practicality, which makes them much more usable for traders. The book begins with chapters on analyzing chart patterns using Elliot wave principles, dynamic price analysis, and dynamic time analysis. The remaining chapters focus on how to use this information in everyday trading. In reading these final chapters I realized areas in my own trading that could use improvement-compared to Miner's rigorous method, mine has been a bit sloppy.
Robert Miner is not only an expert in his field, he is also obviously an experienced teacher who knows how to present information in the proper steps for maximum learning. He has a very interesting mind-he's one of those rare people who has a metaphysician's visionary propensities coupled with a very down-to-earth common sense and dry wit. Thus the book, though at times difficult, is never dry or pedestrian.
This is in my opinion the traders bible
rgds - arco
dumbass
17-09-2007, 08:38 PM
this is a pattern i have been studying , it can look as though this is failed bat retracement
exceeding stop at x point however if b point is a shallow 382 or less then this pattern can
complete at 886 xa (conventional bat) but over run x point and reverse at 113 xa .
ive got more info if anyones interested
dumbass
17-09-2007, 09:02 PM
i see in your posts arco you warn of possibility of gartley morphing into a butterfly
i assumed you meant a cd leg extension ie 786 runs too a 127 and accept imperfection of b point retracement
however i see that the d point completion on a gartley could be the b point of a butterfly and still traded successfully , so i am curious to see which you watch for
DA
Your quote ..........ive got more info if anyones interested.
Always interested in tales from the butterfly house, bats cave, or crabs hollow.
Gartleys.
These can potentially be traded at least into the first fib retracement area, but as I have mentioned and as you have spotted, caution is needed just in case they reverse and continue onward to form a BF or similar.
rgds - arco
dumbass
18-09-2007, 09:05 AM
morning arcmeister , im picking all my info from carneys volume 2 , so hopefully you got it in the post
Morning DA
Yes, thanks very much.
I havent studied it in depth yet, but on a quick viewing I didnt notice any references where he shows how to actually trade the patterns. Finding them is one thing, - trading them is another. (Hobbs book does go partly into entering, and Miners books has many tactics).
If you wish to quote certain pages/patterns we can discuss them - (there is a Butterfly thread here somewhere).
rgds -arco
dumbass
18-09-2007, 11:36 AM
i do agreee , his first book was very interesting from a pattern recognition point of view
but i was left wondering about trading them. carney seem to rely a lot on price behaviour
in the prz , looking for a test and sharp corrective move . studying his trades he seem to
be in very quick and i got the impression he was trading most set ups which from my opinion would be risky
volume 2 relates a little more to trading patterns before they have printed , especially bat
on cd leg after passes b point (BAT MAGNET) and also linking to indicators . he uses this
set up related to rsi , in a nut shell rsi prints in overbought over sold zone, a complex w
pattern related to X point then confirms at d point a divergent corrective move out of
overbought oversold area.
he also talks about trading patterns with repect to trend which all makes a bit more sense
ill get the butterfly thread up and running and post a few examples
Refco.
Reports coming in over the wires indicate that customers are getting back roughly 40 cents on the dollar of their original investment.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=359334#post359334
dumbass
27-09-2007, 03:52 PM
FAVOURITE PAIRS
USD-CHF , EUR-JPY ,AUD-USD ,EUR-USD , HALLE BERRY
in no particular order
roddy
27-09-2007, 08:59 PM
DB
EUR-US
NZD-US
Like kiwi because hes awake when i am
The President of the National Futures Association, Dan Roth, dropped a 50 megaton bomb on the forex industry yesterday. In testimony before the Congress the NFA CEO requested that the Government increase capital requirements to *TWENTY MILLION DOLLARS.*
Here is what he is said in his testimony: http://www.nfa.futures.org/news/newsTestimony.asp?ArticleID=1968
---Quote---
The second trait that marks the *problem firms* in retail forex is that most, though not all, have been thinly capitalized. Congress long ago recognized that acting as a dealer involves greater risk than acting as an agent in futures trading, the way a traditional FCM does. That is why Congress in 1978 imposed a $5 million net worth requirement for firms granting dealer options and why the CFTC created a $2.5 million capital requirement for leverage transaction merchants in 1984. Congress should amend Section 2(c) of the Act to require FCMs acting as counterparties to retail forex transactions to maintain minimum capital of at least $20 million. NFA has raised the capital requirements for forex dealers several times but this congressional action could ensure that firms can meet their obligations to their customers and have a significant financial stake in their business. ---End Quote--- Wow. If you thought it would be hard for poorly capitalized firms to raise a couple million dollars just wait until they have to raise $20 million. There is simply no way most of these little firms are going to be able to do that. In fact, medium sized firms are going to be hard pressed to do that.
It is starting to become crystal clear that the only firms that are going to survive the coming NFA purge are the biggest, most well capitalized firms in the business. That is why Oanda went out and got $100 million in funding and Interbank got $30 million. The serious industry players know what's going on. So should the trading public. If ever there were a time to beware investing in poorly capitalized firms now is the time.
After all, if the NFA has no confidence in the stability of "thinly capitalized" firms why should the trading public?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=25680&goto=newpost
talking books just got fibonacci for active trader , derrik hobbs , very logical interesting book
i reckon we should get a bit of swap a book going , that hobbs book was hard to find and dam pricey
okay
well heres a very practical reason to have a get together!
so how about next weekend in a city cafe maybe the AKL Central Library cafe ? its quite spacious compared to some.
anyone else up for this. I will be prepared to lend/swap my two books. But also keen to say hello to any of you.
dumbass
28-09-2007, 05:32 PM
ok peat , im dusting the anorak off as i speak
lets name a date , i guess because were in auckland we can be be a bit more flexible but anyone else may need a bit more time to organise
if your interested roddy i can pick you up from airport and put you up
Peat/Guys
I can make it this weekend, but not too sure about
the following weekend at the moment.
rgds - arco
okay cool
well lets have a Sunday morning meetup this weekend ... just a casual hello so we can put faces to nicknames and a book swap if anyone wants....
And apologies to those who need more time to arrange but hopefully there will be more
The Library cafe at 10 !
I will be there with Mrs arco....
Dont forget to put your clocks on one hour.
rgds - arco
roddy
29-09-2007, 08:00 PM
DB
thanks for the very hospitable offer,too shorter notice for us out of towners,though its great you guys getting together it might be the start of something.
i will look forward to hearing about it on Monday!
cheers
roddy
yeh next time roddy
so if mrs arco is coming then so will mrs peat.
see you in the morning.
Hi All
Great to meet a few of the posters off the forex forum Sunday morning, and hopefully
we can all get together again soon(+ a few others). We discussed a variety of topics
focusing mainly around Fibonacci techniques (Gartleys/Butterflys), candles, entries/
exits. All in all a very enjoyable couple of hours.
See you all again soon - Maybe in the Albany area next time.
(DB can perhaps suggest a nice coffee shop).
regards - arco
Yes it was really good to meet up - I'm glad we did that! Even the girls seemed to enjoy themselves.
I've skim read the Scott Carney Vol1 and have found it very interesting. I will go over the patterns again and spend time trying to identify them myself. But what I was most impressed with was the way he actually strategises the playing out of the trade, things like the Initial Profit Object and the Profit Protection Zone and even the analysis of the failed pattern and when to consider stop and reversing... very real-life it seemed to me.
roddy
05-10-2007, 11:39 AM
Hi ARCO/ALL
i am still holding short EUR,i am looking for a test of the fib 127 level.
and have brought stop up to break even,looking at daily s not sure whether 127 is achievable,
i am trying to transition from having no positions open overnight to taking more of the trend and trading less.
is there any technical answer to where its going from here or do i just have to tough it out one way or the other
cheers
roddy
yeh its gonna be a rough ride tonite roddy with NFP good luck.
Hi Roddy
Getting the trade going and not getting stopped out
prematurely is the hardest part. Congrats on achieving that.
Also holding is always mentally harder than taking an instant reward,
but can be much more profitable in the long run.
I usually like to take some profits off the table at set
fib zones/Waves counts/Gann. This gives a buffer profit.
The remaining balance can then be put at break-even
with a trailing stop method until you eventually get
stopped out. These runs can often give 100's of pips.
For traders who didnt get in early, there is always a
wave three to hitch a ride on.
rgds - arco
roddy
05-10-2007, 01:04 PM
Peat/Arco,
thanks for your wisdom,yeah will hold,guess if i loose 100 pip which i was up is nothing to the potential which could be in the wings
cheers
roddy
All the Com Dolls blew blew off that NFP figure and rose!! Sits well with the inflationary environment theory I suppose but I cant understand why the Eur and Chf have fully recovered ! Still , ours is not necessarily to understand but merely to predict.
Roddy I hope you had some sort of take profit level set. I did with the USD/Chf long and it was taken so that compensates for the USD CAD losses. Overall my demo a/c only remains about the same after last night....
roddy
06-10-2007, 11:12 AM
Hi Peat,
Peat your call on the NFP was spot on- (better than expected),
unfortunately i didn't take any profit,was asleep but could of placed on auto pilot,US may still not disappoint as i see it, the market is undecided
have a good weekend
cheers
roddy
re NFP - the Aug figures were revised as well - some paranoids have been saying this was a deliberate fudge by the government allowing them to drop the interest rates and save their mates in Wall St.
Heres an EWI view of the current USD situation, they are still USD bearish and show here the Euro and Cable wave counts to support this view. You will need a (free) membership to watch.
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=fex*aid=3392*time=pm
roddy
09-10-2007, 10:13 PM
Hi All
Looking at the EURO data it would appear that a trend following system would work well,looking back over the left hand of my screen is easy,capturing it and translating that into $ in my account now that would be even better,has anybody got some ideas i could trial?
cheers
roddy
Roddy
Ichimoku is one techinique that might interest you, but suggest not to use any chart period less than daily - weekly is even better.
The short shown here was based on the Chikou Span break (Green). Tenkan had already crossed Kijun - (blue over red dotted). Pyramiding can be undertaken on a Kumo break (Majenta).
There are many trend following techniques but be prepared to use bigger stops. Google and you should find many ideas.
rgds - arco
roddy
10-10-2007, 11:12 AM
Hi Arco
thanks for the reply,will do a google,i am looking for entries that are precise and have a high degree of success as in butterflys,perhaps they dont exit,hence the need for wider stops
cheers roddy
Roddy
Try working on a longer term trendline, then when a Gartley or BF reverses in the PRZ around the TL consider entering your trade. You may not find so many trades, but they could possibly be more reliable.
If I have time later I will try to post an example
rgds - arco
Roddy
Re the previous post.
Heres a recent Gartley786 on the Euro (Aug 07) giving circa 800 pips to 1/10/07.
Low risk entry after Morning Star on lower upTL which started back in Mar 06.
rgds - arco
dumbass
10-10-2007, 07:49 PM
funny you bring up that chart i reviewed this one at the weekend
marked on arco s entry , simplicity is the key
simple trend line confirming on andrews pitchfork with a prz
Hi DB
Andrews Pitchforks...... another very interesting subject.
I've displayed them a few times here on ST
Heres my daily Euro + weekly Euro
rgds - arco
.
.
The US Dollar/iPod Index
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
This is an amusing way to look at the US Dollar: How much iPod nano does the US dollar buy around the world?
Just over 20 years ago, The Economist magazine launched an index based on a McDonalds hamburger – the Big Mac index – a practical way of assessing whether a particular currency was under or over-valued against other currencies. It was launched as a light-hearted approach to exchange rate theory, but has had a good track record in predicting the direction of currencies.
· The Big Mac index has some limitations, one being that hamburgers cannot be traded across countries. Additionally, the Big Mac index is updated only irregularly. So, in the same spirit as the Big Mac index, CommSec has compiled the iPod index – a comparison of prices for the popular iPod nano music player across the world. Results released today showed that Apple sold 21 million iPods in the past quarter.
· The CommSec iPod index is a similarly light-hearted approach to assess currency movements. And while the initial results are at odds with many analysts, we will have to wait and see. The index suggests that the US dollar has potential to appreciate against a range of major currencies, with the Aussie dollar around 15 per cent over-valued against the greenback.
Country Price
Brazil $327.71
India $222.27
Sweden $213.03
Denmark $208.25
Belgium $205.81
France $205.80
Finland $205.80
Ireland $205.79
UK $195.04
Austria $192.86
Netherlands $192.86
Spain $192.86
Italy $192.86
Germany $192.46
China $179.84
Korea $176.17
Switzerland $175.59
NZ $172.53
Australia $172.36
Taiwan $164.88
Singapore $161.25
Mexico $154.46
USA $149.00
Japan $147.63
Hong Kong $147.63
Canada $144.20
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/10/the-us-dollarip.html
roddy
11-10-2007, 09:28 AM
Arco
thanks for the chart,i didnt pick up on the gartley at the time but i did see the EURO bouncing off
the long term trend line from start of 06,i didnt have enough courage at the time with the credit crunch etc
in my search yesterday i could not find anything that comes close to the precision a butterfly
offers,and coupled with with a long term trend line as you posted ,i see what you were referring too!
back to the hatchery
cheers
roddy
roddy
12-10-2007, 03:29 PM
Hi Miner,
You havent been posting for awhile,
if my memory serves me correctly you do a bit of flounder fishing, hows that been going?
its windy in Hawkes Bay,so not going out this weekend!
cheers
roddy
miner
12-10-2007, 05:34 PM
Hi Roddy been sick again so not doing much FX as brain is as thick as a brick,4 chart system working good though.
Just been thinking of going for a flounder as getting a tad warmer to be walking around with a spear,but did go for a scallop the other day,got our limit,cooked some in a nice sauce and the rest the next night in the pan with garlic and butter and a rasher of bacon around them,they go well with a good sausage also.
Eur/jpy been good on my system today,came home to be stopped for a few pips,so went short for a few more,(posted on it's thread earlier).
Never sure if what I post is any help due to not talking charty,but will try to do a few more.
Hope all is well with you and your making some FX $$$.
Cheers
Miner
dumbass
12-10-2007, 05:44 PM
hi miner, ive been looking at your u trades this afternoon , pretty impressed you seem to have a system that works , so defintley keep posting .
dumbass
12-10-2007, 05:55 PM
so from what i gathered look for a big move on the dailys say a big down move
then watch for suuport and bounce to resistance then trade down to support on smaller
time frame , confirming off other pairs
might follow a trade one night when were both on line with a few beers of course
roddy
12-10-2007, 06:13 PM
Hi Miner,
i hope you throw off your illness quickly and will look forward to you posting again.
good to hear you got your limit on scallops,you must have a good spot somewhere but
dont worry i wont be asking where!
yes i am making a few $$ on fx of late albeit not as quickly as i would like
cheers
roddy
miner
12-10-2007, 06:25 PM
Ta guys if you set up my 4 charts for eur/jpy you can see the turn points for trades well today,since it turned on the hourly at 166.86 I have been looking at a U back to the low of 166.00,but ok trades along the way.
So usd/jpy will prob test the low also,if so on eur/jpy it's an 80 odd pip U trade.
Cheers
Miner
miner
12-10-2007, 06:34 PM
Dumbass big moves either way are good to trade (as opposed to sideways rubbish,when sideways sit on your hands),so eur/jpy today big south over night,then a nice bounce,then the turn and now back to test the low of last night.
So if you miss the bounce or are unsure wait for the turn,they can set up nice U trades,while playing these keep the bigger daily picture in mind (daily is one of my 4 charts for each pair).
So after you see the turn and have the U back to the low in mind you can play the smaller U's on the way down (20-30 pip ones today),so always taking the money on the smaller U's on the way down if you go long as the bigger picture is the U to test last nights low.
My system is VERY basic but it works,the KISS system.
Hope that helped.
Cheers
Miner
miner
12-10-2007, 06:39 PM
VERY important don't get stuck on a plan,ie today I thought maybe back to test high of 167.60 BUT then it turned to set up this U,so be flexible and change plan as the charts tell you,so out of the long into a short and made pips on both.
miner
12-10-2007, 07:36 PM
As eur/jpy is having a real battle to test that low it's worth watching for a long off it.
Cheers
Miner
miner
12-10-2007, 07:41 PM
eur/usd going same way and is going to test 1.4155,usd/chf usual and going other way,usd/jpy messy like last night.
Cheers
Miner
roddy
16-10-2007, 10:16 AM
Hi ALL,
got a long on the kiwi at 7620 expecting 7590 as support to hold with stop there, targeting .7650 initially.
cheers
roddy
theres seems to be a bit of a shift in opinion
Hi Peat
Exactly what we were taking about a few days ago.......all the signals lining up
for a potential shift in sentiment
rgds -arco
Today´s Key Events
• 08:00 Consumer Prices CPI, DEM
• 09:15 Retail Sales, CHF
• 10:30 Consumer Prices CPI, GBP
• 11:00 Consumer Prices CPI (final),EUR
• 11:00 ZEW Survey, DEM
• 15:00 TICS, USD
• 19:00 NAHB, USD
GMT
I dont think that German CPI would've done it. and Citigroups losses were out earlier I think.
Heres what they said at 7 PM our time
In New York yesterday the stocks dropped the
most in five weeks as Citigroup posted the
steepest loss in two months and said that
defaults will plague the financial industry
for the remainder of 2007 and that late
payments on home loans may worsen fourth
quarter. Bank of America Corporation and JP
Morgan Chase & Co. also incurred losses on
the stock exchange after Citigroup’s remarks.
The development in the stock market caused
JPY to strengthen due to increased investor
concerns that the credit market turmoil will
re-emerge. AUD, NZD, and other high yielders
were hit by selling streaks – AUD fell more
than 1% and NZD more than 2%.
G7 jtters re the coming meeting this weekend.
Markets on alert for G7 shift on currency
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: October 14 2007 17:09 | Last updated: October 14 2007 17:09
Currencies and the regulatory response to the credit crisis will top the agenda when world finance ministers, central bank governors and private sector bank executives meet this week in Washington for the Group of Seven summit and the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Foreign exchange markets in particular are on alert for any changes to the G7 *communiqué that raise even the remote possibility of co-ordinated international intervention to support the dollar, which has fallen to its lowest levels against the euro in recent weeks.
This heightened sensitivity follows a high-profile public campaign by many European governments, led by France, for something to be done to halt the euro’s appreciation.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, last month said the eurozone “should not be the only area in the world where the currency is not put at the service of growth”.
Two former US Treasury officials told the Financial Times that it could be in the US’s interest to create some uncertainty about *possible currency intervention – not in order to boost the value of the dollar but to ensure any further decline is orderly.
However, neither thinks that Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, will adopt this strategy. Mr Paulson, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs, believes that politicians have no business trying to establish the value of currencies that trade in deep and liquid *markets, and would not *succeed if they tried.
The US Treasury has signalled that it will not agree to any G7 statement that suggests that Washington wants the dollar to appreciate against the euro.
The UK, meanwhile, has sided with the US. Asked about whether the G7 should change its language on currencies, Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, said: “I think the G7 really needs to concentrate on, *perhaps, some of the longer-term structural reforms that are necessary in the economies of the world.”
A hedge fund manager told the FT he worried that the French had overplayed their hand by raising expectations of the G7 meeting to the point where the absence of a policy shift could be seen as a green light for *further dollar depreciation.
However, a head-on collision between the eurozone and the US at the G7 looks unlikely, following the European Union’s decision last week to tone down its rhetoric on the dollar, in response to the US formally backing a strong dollar and the need for China to allow the renminbi to appreciate.
This brings Europe into line with US thinking that the problem is not the fall of the dollar against the euro, but other currencies not sharing the burden of the currency’s decline.
In private, though, European governments, led by France, are expected to push for some new wording in the communiqué.
A former US official said the G7 would probably agree to “tweak” the language. This could involve some tougher words on the renminbi and, perhaps, the yen, with possible compromise language about monitoring “volatility” or “abrupt movements” in exchange rates.
He said the Europeans would probably spin this as being “really about getting the euro down”. But he said the US would not support this interpretation.
There is broader agreement on the regulatory agenda, with a “to-do” list that focuses on credit rating agencies, disclosure of banks’ exposure to off-balance-sheet investment vehicles, regulatory and incentive problems in the system by which financial institutions sell mortgage debts on to securities markets, and difficulties surrounding complex structured credit products.
The UK wants new international regulations that focus on liquidity rather than just credit risk.
These issues will be discussed at the G7 on *Friday and the annual meeting of the IMF the following day, which brings together all the world’s finance ministers.
Differences over hedge funds – particularly between the US and Germany – still remain but have narrowed and are not a core issue.
However, the US wants policymakers to take time to analyse the crisis before leaping to regulatory solutions, a view backed by the IMF and central bankers and regulators on both sides of the Atlantic. Washington is also inclined to see more scope for market-based solutions to many of the failures exposed than are most European states.
In spite of domestic *political pressure, Mr Paulson remains unwilling to scapegoat the rating agencies, emphasising the need to reform but not destroy them.
Additional reporting by Chris Giles and Gillian Tett in *London, Bertrand Benoit in Berlin, Ben Hall in Paris, Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Tony Barber in Brussels.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
i wonder if the suckers rally is coming to an end now.. eg NZD; OZ ; USD/JPY ; CHF/JPY all starting to turn down again?
40 mins later - got 32 kiwi short pips during lunchtime !!
Looks like that may be the case Peat
I took a short EY on the rejection off the old support area (Red line),
and a flag break.
rgds -arco
roddy
17-10-2007, 03:36 PM
Peat/Arco
Peat wrote 40 mins later - got 32 kiwi short pips during lunchtime !!
well done to both of you
i tried twice shorting the Kiwi,got stopped both times,must be a lesson in there for me!
after i have had 2 loosing trades i don't trade any more for the day
cheers
roddy
thats a good circuit breaker rule roddy....
desperation creeps in and mars the thinking.
Interesting homonym mistake from Jyske Bank
In our view it is therefore highly likely that
unwinding of risk will remain the predominant
market theme for the remainder of the weak
ahead of the G7 summit.
hope things go better today arco
I had a few ill disciplined trades last night and gave back a big chunk of y'day but before went to bed put in a limit sell NZD at 7550 and woke up with it already closed out at +100.
Busy at work today...
Peat
I should have realised something was not quite right...........particularly when
Mrs arco informed me she was scalping................but in the opposite direction.
rgds - arco
trade with each other and skip out the middleman?
Anyone else using Oanda
what version of Java are you running
I was having a few problems with it a few days ago and uninstalled Java and sourced out an earlier version , installed that , and its working fine again now.
I'm running JRE SE 1.4.2_14
down from JAVA SE RUNTIME ENVIRONMENT (JRE) VERSION 6
tho thats only back 1 or two versions not as much as it sounds
Peat
I'm using Java 1.6.0_02.
I noticed someone elsewhere saying they had problems after
the update, and although there are updates currently available
I havent updated mine.
rgds - arco
Gbp.Jpy
I couldnt believe my eyes.....straight through my order (and without even picking it up on the second one minute candle).
Could this happen on a stop order I wonder. Scary.........
I'll be contacting Oanda to see what they have to say.
miner
18-10-2007, 09:21 PM
Some spam I got
Second, only 12 Forex News Trader units are left. Dean's News Trader
has achieved 200 pips per month for 8 straight months! Normally
s.old as a stand alone product, Dean agreed to provide a limited
number of his Forex News Trader as a bonus EXCLUSIVELY to my
subscribers who purchas.e his Blade Forex course.
Was thinking woopty sh#t a whole 200 pips a month.
Cheers
Miner
Oanda are investigating
Heres the same order on a 5 sec chart
After 45 mins chatting with an Oanda 'LIVE' person I eventually made her understand.
I wont bore you with the whole transcript...its far too long and fills 2 A4 pages
at font 10.
Miss the first 50 lines, while she must have been on another planet......................
OANDA: [b]Your order would have been excuted if the the bid price dropped another 47 pips.[/]
arco: price was abt 237.22 when I placed the limit sell at 237.15...the price then dropped to 236.79
arco: about 40 pips fall
eventually the penny dropped.............
OANDA.I apologize I do see what you are referring to. I am sooo sorry for the confusion.
arco: OK...so what happened?
OANDA: Give me one moment to take a look.
OANDA: Unfortunately, I cannot be sure what has happened. Your order should have been executed. Our Technical is not available for another few hours, but as soon as they are in I will have them investigate.
arco: Will they contact me by e-mail ?
OANDA: Yes, by the end of the business day.
arco: Ok thanks
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/3070/emotpsypopya3.gif
Evening Peat
If there is a next time, I will definately e-mail the complaint and include a shot of the
offending pixel. It might help to keep mi blood pressure down.
Gbp.Jpy.
According to Oanda the bid price was a milliee, millie, milli pip lower when
the order arrived at their computer..........bit strange because there
seemed a pretty good gap according to the candles. Maybe the spread
widened at that precise moment. Annoying as I would now be up 125 pips.
One slight consolation is I shorted EurJpy at the same time currently + 60
One slight consolation is I shorted EurJpy at the same time currently
going well. !
Hi Peat
Yes Ive taken some off at +100
arco
Wow
Was that 100 pip spike upwards in the kiwi on all platforms or just in Oanda? Wonder if it took out anyones stops. That would really suck.
Peat
I checked Metatrader but it doesnt appear to have Kiwi chart.
If its a platform issue Oanda always re-instate the trades.
The Oanda forum usually have platform issue queries.
cant see that spike on NetDania
From Jyske Bank
* Volatility in the financial markets is pronounced at the moment and the short term US interest rates have been sliding drastically.
* The release of Bank of America’s third quarter results contributed to an increased risk aversion and a further unwinding of carry trades.
* The USD keeps weakening and the trend is likely to continue in the event that no statements are made in this respect at this weekend’s G7. At this time however we maintain a neutral stance on the USD
EY balance closed +170 on auto at 127 Fib
flat now until next week.
Good weekend all - arco
yeh my Antipodean trades gave +30 and +40 but it sounds like someone got more sleep than me lol.
dumbass
20-10-2007, 09:39 PM
right guys reputations on the line
the following eleven charts contain 5 ASX industrials and 7 cumulated random numbers
the real share prices have been adjusted for divvies,splits yada yada and scaled yada yada yar
winner scoops a nice bottle of local wine
Hoags
21-10-2007, 02:49 PM
peat, I had the spike as well. Didn't have any positions opened but previous spikes of that nature have taken out my stops before. I trade with IG markets.
oanda didnt action some auto trades for me last nite !
twas just in fxgame (demo) but what with your recent experience arco , and this , its a bit of a worry. it could end up being quite catastrophic , my demo a/c not looking too healthy this morning.
Morning Peat
I can confirm the TRADE platform was working perfectly last night, however
we had a demo running also and the SL and TP functions were not working.
rgds - arco
roddy
25-10-2007, 09:21 AM
Hi ALL
has anyone got a take on the Euro, at present i am thinking it is due for a correction lower with
divergence on rsi and in prz
cheers
roddy
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10471926
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Jim Rogers Shifts Assets Out of Dollar to Buy Chinese Currency
By Marcel van de Hoef and Danielle Rossingh
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and buying Chinese yuan because the Federal Reserve has eroded the value of the U.S. currency.
``I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of U.S. dollars,'' said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. ``I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S.''
Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver and palladium.
The dollar has dropped against all the 16 most actively traded currencies except the Mexican peso this year as slowing growth and the first interest-rate reduction since 2003 last month dimmed the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
``It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
``The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange,'' he said. ``That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''
China
The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is ``the best currency to buy right now,'' Rogers said. ``I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple.''
China, growing faster than any other major economy, is ``going to be the most important country in the 21st century,'' he said. China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the economy grew by 11.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
Rogers also is buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen, which he said have been ``pounded down'' because of the so-called carry trades.
Unwinding Carry Trades
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, and invest the proceeds where rates are higher. Japan's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trades in yen and francs will ``unwind someday,'' which will send the currencies ``straight up,'' Rogers said. ``I'm buying the yen.''
The bull markets in bonds and stocks are ``over,'' he said. ``Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years.''
Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because ``that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022.''
Commodity prices have surged as demand for raw materials, especially from China, rose faster than producers were able to increase output. Agricultural prices have led recent gains, including a record high for wheat last month and a three-year high in soybeans.
``The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972,'' Rogers said. ``Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things.''
He added, ``I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals.''
Platinum, gold, silver and palladium will ``be much, much higher during the course of the bull market,'' he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amQBwDBSDvBE&refer=home
dumbass
26-10-2007, 05:22 PM
very interesting arco thanks
i was thinking the other night about kicking off a thread for big picture theories , it seems
the real big bucks are in the position trades , if you smart enough to read it right there has
been some massive multi year trends which would have made mind blowing trades.
Hi DB
Yes, start off a thread....
Its certainly may be a good/better? way to trade.......all is left to do is sit back,
relax and (hopefully) watch the money roll in.
The carry trade currencies might be a good place to start,
and scaling in may be the way to go.
rgds - arco
Off topic.....(just for a change)
Could vertical farming be the future?
Farm able to feed 50,000 people could 'fit comfortably within a city block'
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21154137/
http://verticalfarm.com/
Craig3215
27-10-2007, 02:10 AM
Hey Arco,
Thanks for the article on Rogers... Yuan getting stronger over the next couple years seems like a pretty obvious call... very strong chinese economy, peg to US dollar keeping it artificially weak, political pressure from US to losen peg further combined with the need for them to cool their economy and fight inflation makes it seem like it just makes sense for them to slow there buying of US dollars at a faster pace... but my question is where can I buy some Yuan
Hi Craig
Oanda has - USD/CNY
Everbank US lists CNY in its Personal and Business Rates section
WorldCurrency Access Deposit Account—Money Market Yields
$2,500 ($US) Minimum Deposit (some exceptions apply)
http://www.everbank.com/002Rates.aspx?LinkID=Navigation
rgds - arco
Craig3215
27-10-2007, 01:24 PM
Thanks Arco,
I just set up a demo account with oanda, I'm gonna play around with it alittle on Monday and then go live.
Good morning everyone.
I've been pretty quiet here but am still around !!
Agreed Arco that Aud looked too strong last week and I just had to long it , I've just had an auto take profit at +100 or so activated this morning. Still have long Eur/GPB;s and long Eur/Usd , both well up as well in place. Got burned with my AUD/NZD trades (too impatient to wait for the garley that did eventually form) and also that night with no stops activated took a big hit. So overall week was bad bad bad I guess I dont really need to include the malfunctions in my true P+L but still makes the demo a/c look bad.
I'm reading a bit of your book every weekend DA. While i did read it once quickly, I'm now going through with the tooth comb. Slow progress but am enjoying it. If I can have it a few more weeks would be appreciated - I have 2 weeks holiday starting next week so will have more time. On Sat we head up to Algies bay for a few days YAY.
dumbass
29-10-2007, 11:12 AM
morning peat , no problem at all keep it as long as you like and you still got volume 2 to look forward too
on the trading front longs on the world against us dollar have all hit profit targets
more to come but i feel fed decision may move the market
currently looking at short gbp usd maybe 2.06 - 2.07 if lucky also eur very similar chart
cheers DA appreciated muchly.
have closed the Eur Long and halved the Eur/Gbp long.
roddy
30-10-2007, 12:33 PM
Hi Peat
i am still long Euro 42688 with a stop at 43350 up roughly150 pip at present target 145
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/4930/oppqi9.th.jpg (http://img517.imageshack.us/my.php?image=oppqi9.jpg)
Nice going Roddy
The old brown Euro Moth still seems to be attracted by the 1618
having just passed through the 1218
circa 2800 pips for longer term holders.
I think DB is going to start a thread for potential longer term trades.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=91&d=1190762436
roddy
30-10-2007, 01:36 PM
Hi Arco,
2800 pip thats big,my account couldnt handle the fluctuations,but for large accounts the mind boggles,
i have been refocusing and i
know i have said it before but i am trying to get into more medium term time frame and carrying a wider stop to make it work!
DB will look forward to your long term thread
cheers
roddy
Interesting correlation play.
So did you see the 'No Place to Hide' video from elliotwave.com then Arco? They posit a correlation between almost every market in existence attributing this to liquidity and reason that as the credit crunch exacerbates all markets will fall hence the title of it.
Fed cuts rates to 4.5%
Citing turmoil in the housing market, Bernanke and Co. lower a key short-term rate by a quarter of a point to keep the economy on track. But the central bank also said it's worried about inflation - news that spooked the markets.
roddy
01-11-2007, 08:55 AM
Hi Peat
yeah was wondering why it went down before it went up!
still long Euro at current levels 4480, 212 pips up with approx 140 pips locked in on auto pilot
certainly less stress trading medium term
cheers
roddy
Morning All
Additional FOMC info here...........
Release Date: October 31, 2007
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.
Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner;
Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Thomas M. Hoenig, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco.
Morning Peat
Yes, I listened through part 3..... No hiding place apparantely.
I think what Jagerson was suggesting was using the early move of say BP Oil as a trigger for a position in Cable and jumping on before it moved in the same direction. Give an edge maybe.
rgds - arco
dumbass
01-11-2007, 10:53 AM
morning guys,
tis a thing of awe and beauty these massive run away impulise moves
id never of guessed arco that buterrfly on gbp usd would be approaching so quickly
lost another finger trying to catch falling knife on cad
losing fingers is pretty easy aye DA
Heres what ABN Amro have to say re Fed cut
Economic comment
Entrapment
Tim Drayson
As was widely expected, the Fed delivered a 25bp cut in its funds and discount rate. But
Thomas Hoenig dissented, preferring no change. This indicates the decision was more finely
balanced than market pricing would suggest. After opting for a surprisingly large 50bp cut at
the last FOMC, the evidence to justify a further loosening was far from overwhelming. We'll
have to wait for the minutes, but I doubt the staff has made any downward revisions to their
2008 growth forecasts since the September meeting. In taking the decision, the FOMC
probably paid less attention to the robust 3Q07 GDP figure, and instead focussed on the
higher frequency data. There has been some softening, but no more than the Fed
anticipated. So I think the Fed was reluctant to ease, but felt compelled to because failure to
act might have unsettled markets. After all, the risk management approach is designed to
stabilize financial markets and prevent the adverse effects on the broader economy from
developing.
The statement required plenty of redrafting. The Fed noted that 'economic growth was solid
in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat', but
acknowledged that 'the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly
reflecting the intensification of the housing correction'. The language on inflation was
expanded to include more explicit guidance about the risks, 'recent increases in energy and
commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation'.
Most important, and in a bid to damp speculation of further substantial cuts, the Fed inserted
an assessment of the balance of risks, saying 'the upside risks to inflation roughly balance
the downside risks to growth'. The statement concluded with the same line about acting 'as
needed'.
The fed funds rate is now around neutral and with government bond yields and the majority
of credit spreads still low and the dollar weakening, monetary conditions are not restrictive.
The economy is close to full capacity, global growth remains robust and commodity prices,
most worryingly crude oil, are soaring. As medium-term inflation risks are increasing, I don't
think the Fed sees the need to loosen policy further. But with markets pricing in further rate
cuts, the Fed has a communications issue. The statement is the first attempt to outline the
Fed's thoughts, but in subsequent speeches and the minutes I expect the Fed to explain that
because it has frontloaded rate cuts, it doesn't need to cut rates again if the data softens as
it's expecting. It's conceivable that market turbulence could re-intensify and we get more
evidence of broad-based economic weakness. A sustained drop in the monthly ISMs or rise
in unemployment could force the Fed to loosen even further. But because the Fed has been
remarkably pre-emptive, the most likely scenario is sluggish growth near-term before
returning to potential in the second half of 2008. At this stage the Fed has limited ability to
prevent the housing correction running its course, but it can help promote macro stability by
ensuring that inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained. As a result, I expect
the Fed to remain on hold through 2008.
roddy
02-11-2007, 08:53 AM
Hi
Got stopped out last night on Euro trade at the low,still 135 pip on trade.
have a cheeky wee short now in place at 4452 on Euro
cheers roddy
your Eur Chf and $Y calls were good Arco
Kiwi 'should be higher' as it hits US77c
economists are surprised ! lol
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10473575&pnum=0
I saw that USDYEN change tack about 1am and hopped the ride for a hundred.
Morning Peat
Yes, looking reasonable at the moment.....
2 Eur.Chf positions
and 1 Yen + 105
rgds -arco
roddy
02-11-2007, 12:10 PM
Hi Arco/Peat
nice trading
cheers
roddy
dumbass
03-11-2007, 02:39 PM
just a quick technical question boys
with a few candlestick patterns eg dark cloud cover , piercing patterns etc they will be a pretty rare occurence as the only chance for a gap open is a monday are these patterns modified in any way to apply to the 24 hour nature of the forex markets .
DB
They seem to appear on Reuters EOD quite frequently, but
I dont check Oanda EOD, although I would presume as you
say - perhaps Mondays only.
Question DB/Roddy/Anyone - re
Metastock EOD download.
Who do you use for your info? (and how much are you paying)
Infoscan have somehow failed to deliver Fridays EOD FX despite
calling the tech help line.................very frustrating.
Might be time for a change.
rgds - arco
Arco,
Not sure if you are still having problems with the infoscan download, but for what it is worth, it was definitely there for me when downloading today.
dumbass
04-11-2007, 04:18 PM
hi arco, im experiencing the same problem with infoscan
one click downloader indicates no files to download but last candle was 1/11/07
hmmmmm
roddy
04-11-2007, 09:41 PM
Hi Arco
yes experience same prob as you,i haven't got an itemized account, but my sub includes EOD for nzx,asx and fx for the period 19 Aug to 18 Nov $219 including gst
was able to download nzx and asx but no fx
will post more tomorrow, will say have had a good run out of them so far tho
cheers
roddy
Thanks Everyone.
Definately only seems to be 4 days of info for FX. There should be a file dated SP071103
to make up 5 days of the week.
I download on two 2 computers - one using one click, the other by the manual method.
Both give the same results .......and like you DB my last candle is 1/11 - it should be 2/11
Can you guys please inform me what you are paying for ASX, NZ, SP,
(and IC / IX if you also receive info).
Thanks - arco
4 days only showing on the manual download site.............
The Amero - This idea is based on the common European Union currency, the euro.
http://www.amerocurrency.com/
From the mindsets documented above, and more data available through this site, emerges the concept of the "Amero," an international currency whereby the American monetary system and the US treasury system become homogeneous with those of Mexico and Canada.
http://www.amerocurrency.com/amerophotos.html photos of the Amero
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero
The North American currency union is a proposal in which the three principal countries of North America, namely Canada, the United States and Mexico, would share a common currency. This idea is based on the common European Union currency, the euro. There are also related proposals for a single currency for all of the Americas. The hypothetical currency for both of these ideas is sometimes referred to as the Amero.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10474430
Gisele Bundchen, the 27-year-old Brazilian who is the face of more than 20 brands worldwide and is reported to have a personal fortune of US$150 million, has said she wants to be paid in euros for fear that the US currency will continue to weaken
"I know exactly where the currencies are going to. But I'm not going to tell that to you."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10474362
dumbass
08-11-2007, 12:10 PM
i saw that, anybody on first name terms with George and maybe give him a ring .
what do you reckon he's getting at ???
I'm picking up a Sore ass from the airport 1410 PM....I'll
see what I can find out
dumbass
08-11-2007, 01:18 PM
Originally Posted by Soros
"I know exactly where the currencies are going to. But I'm not going to tell that to you."
DUMBASS
"i have no idea where the currencies are going to. But i am going to tell that to you with my dumbass posts"
dumbass
09-11-2007, 01:56 PM
apologies in advance chaps absolutely nothing to do with forex what so ever
potential trade on fbu
changed polarity resistance/support around 1120
multi year uptrend at 1130
hammer on dailys confirming that support
fib cluster just below 1100
i reckon this one is worth a long target that upper channel line
i know very naughty but its all technical learning i suppose
Ive traded FBU on marketmaker so am interested DA!
But would be reluctant to long equities at the moment with DOW so soft.
FBU is fundamentally an excellent company (most of my job is IT for one of their subsidiaries) and they have an excellent forward book of work to cushion them from a potentially deteriorating economic climate for building.
I see more potential for downside in their shareprice tho simply because the market as a whole is weak - hard to imagine their stock hitting new highs soon in my humble opinion.
dumbass
09-11-2007, 03:57 PM
hi peat , i thought you were on holiday or is that next week
fbu has been my longest holding , i reckon new highs may be a stretch but that upper descending trend line may be feasible , it could be a low risk trade
i am hoping for a bit of weakness to get in at about 1110 stop loss about 1070
if that trendline breaks its the end of a least 7 year uptrend but all uptrends have to end
yes I am on holiday this week and next - its great.
I've decided to set up a real account with Oanda. Have just been on the phone to them now. I originally chose AUD as my base currency but they will only accept PayPal credits to USD based accounts. So I've phoned them up to do that - PayPal is the most convenient method of funding the account although there's a bit of a stink charge for doing it.
But I cant be bothered with banks and wires or even worse snail mail money orders etc.... they take too long.
Those money laundering laws in the US really get in the way for these sorts of things. I also had the problems setting up an account with GFT. They cant take a credit card for some reason.
Will keep you posted. But very much looking forward to some real action again. I fully expect to have a few dud trades initially tho, its the nature of the beast to play with my mind lol.
dumbass
09-11-2007, 05:41 PM
from what i have seen you have been executing some sharp trades
MAY THE MOJO BE WITH YOU
The FXTrade a/c is still not active and I have a zero balance so probably no real trading till next week. Cant bring myself to open demo anymore tho hahah.
I see FXtrade has gold and silver - looking forward to that as well.... Tho possibility of some pullback next with these so wouldnt quite be longing them at these levels.
http://www.jacobandco.com/watches/ftz_f/jc_1_b.jpg
my deposit to Oanda got rejected - due to an unverified Paypal account.
So to verify myself I have to let Paypal debit me $3 (they will refund) and then the transaction on my credit card statement will have a Number that I need to put into their website. But I only get credit card statements once a month.... so I've just set up online access to my credit card statements and apparently the transaction will appear in a few days. Whata a rigmarole.
So once again - getting money to an O'seas forex broker is not a completely simple process and thats the reason I originally moved to CMC.
The last transfer I made was by wire.......very fast - money arrived in the a/c within 24hrs
Forex lures Japan investors
http://www.euro2day.gr/pics/dot.gif
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: 14/11/2007 | Last Updated: 14/11/2007 16:55 London Time
Japanese retail investors are pouring into the yen carry trade despite being battered by the recent sharp rise in the country's currency against the US dollar.
For many individual traders, the yen's surge against the dollar has been a rude awakening to the dangers of forex trading. Stories abound of housewives losing their lifetime savings within days as the yen value of highly leveraged dollar holdings plummeted.
But contrary to expectations, the currency market turmoil has not significantly dented the appetite of Mr and Mrs Watanabe to play the foreign exchange markets.
According to research by Yano Research Institute, the number of foreign exchange margin trading accounts almost doubled last year to 644,802 and is poised to grow another 62 per cent in the year to March, to 1.05m accounts.
Although the survey was published in June, long before the latest yen up-swing, Kazuhiro Shirakura, senior researcher at Yano, said: "The number of accounts has not been affected at all and has continued to increase." This was because new forex traders usually began by buying foreign currencies and the strong yen made it a good environment to start trading, he said.
Even traders who had been hurt by the yen's rise had generally taken a long-term view and stayed in the market, said Junichi Katsuno in the financial markets division at Himawari Shoken, which specialises in foreign exchange trading.
"There are many people who take a long-term view and are waiting to buy [dollars]," he said. "There aren't that many people who expect the yen to strengthen that much more."
Retail investors were generally willing to participate in the yen carry trade as long as the yen did not rise above Y105 to the US dollar, Mr Katsuno said.
Individual traders are also becoming more sophisticated in their trading strategy.
Since the summer, instead of taking large positions in one currency, which can lead to huge losses, investors are taking smaller positions and trading frequently and flexibly to minimize any potential losses.
What is more, not all retail traders have lost out in the latest currency turmoil.
[B]One 34-year old housewife who uses the online handle "Forex-loving Mama" to blog about her trading, said she had actually made profits by taking both short and long positions in the more than 20 currency pairs she tracked daily.
The woman, who declined to be identified, said she closed her positions each day before going to bed and was not phased by the latest currency moves that had left many retail investors nursing huge losses.
She also expects other retail traders to stay in the market. "Surprisingly, there aren't many people who say they will quit. I think it's because people remember how good it can be. It's like a gambling addiction," she said.
ΠΗΓΗ: FT.com http://www.euro2day.gr/pics/dot.gif
Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.
and now rappers
Rappers join models in insisting on Euros as greenbacks fall out of fashion
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10476931
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10474430
Gisele Bundchen, the 27-year-old Brazilian who is the face of more than 20 brands worldwide and is reported to have a personal fortune of US$150 million, has said she wants to be paid in euros for fear that the US currency will continue to weaken
Tokyo, November 20.
EUR/JPY and other JPY crosses have surged on the back of the stock market rally, based mostly on rumors of an emergency Fed meeting to mull a possible further cut in interest rates. A Financial Times article that the Fed may hold in store a surprise for investors looks to have been the catalyst for this talk. Rumors of an emergency Fed meeting were heard in late New York trading as well. Whether there is any foundation to this talk remains to be seen. What can be said is that the Nikkei has pared its earlier losses and then some, trading back above 15K and indicated currently at 15,052.80, up 10.24 points on the day. The index was as low as 14,751.27 today. EUR/JPY currently trades 161.39/44. Resistance topside is eyed at 161.78, the 200-day moving average. Some stops may be seen on a break above. Next resistance is eyed around 162.00.
Started trading FXtrade last night with small long positions on Silver, Gold (closed now) AUD/USD and USD/SGD short
Good Luck Peat.
Pleased to hear you are now trading the big 'O' for real.
arco
In 2007 the FXStreet Trader of the Year contest again underlined the complexity of trading. Only a small percentage of traders could sustain profitability. Out of more than 50 contestants who entered, only 2 made positive returns (35% and 136%) by the end, 4 months later, September 30th 2007.
Colin, 2nd place with 35% percent over four months
Torsten 1st place with 136% percent over four months
Charting is such a simple matter when you have dimension trader.............
https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/DATA/20060210100550TradingScreen.gif
i'n feeling a bit queasey now.
thats shocking statistics for profitability. it is indeed a challenge .
Evening Peat
These comps definately put you in a stressful position.
I went in for a NZ share contest many years ago.
By some strange quirk I came 2nd.....and I was only
trading using candlesticks.
miner
21-11-2007, 09:32 PM
Evening chaps just been watching my dealing rates(fxcm) and the charts I use(ava) and mainly when it gets busy like now the charts are up to 5pips behind the dealing rates,Hmm could be handy.
Cheers
Miner
Evening Miner
Quite an advantage if you can deal in big numbers.
i.e 20 mill x 5 pips = $10,000
rgds - arco
miner
21-11-2007, 09:45 PM
Sure is but a pain in the butt if you trade fxcm and watch ava charts,but trade ava and watch fxcm dealing rates for the jump could be the go,thinking more get the jump on moves rather than deal big numbers,but both could work.
Cheers
miner
Some reading about a big time trader
The Blow-Up Artist
Can Victor Niederhoffer survive another market crisis?
by John Cassidy
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/15/071015fa_fact_cassidy?currentPage=1
P5 "...........he said. “I was long about seventy-five million dollars."
P6..........Then one day I was playing racquetball in Staten Island with a guy who subsequently became the U.S. champion. After the first game, I called the office to see where the market was. The price of gold had fallen from eight hundred and fifty dollars to six hundred dollars in an hour. My net worth had gone down to ten million dollars.
scary stuff................
yeh what I find amazing is his ability to come back again and again but... then crash again
Despite the lessons of 1997, and the precautions he had taken, he was again in over his head.
For those who enjoy stories like that but in a fuller novelistic way I really recommend Theodore Dreiser's "The Financier" the first of a trilogy which I read last year
Downloadable too as its a 19th C classic
http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/1840
a quiet night was to be expected with Thankgiving ... will that mean a quiet Friday as well tho?
Morning Peat
Not too quite for me........may have to book the profits
before that swap rate hits me just where it hurts the most
Activity is likely to be limited today as the US markets are only open till noon.
Evening Peat
Certainly some wild movements tonight on some of the pairs.....
Anything take your fancy ?
i'm a bit paralysed at the moment on the currencies. tho am hedging my USD account balance back to local tho thats not doing me any particular favours.
Am very slowly accumulating silver. some limit orders if it goes lower at any stage. tho gold is actually outperforming. but that tends to encourages a metallic bias
Looking for gartleys but not seeing them right now so using ADX to try and establish some trends. a lot of pairs have already travelled some distance... will post anything I find.
Dollar displaces Yen as carry trade's favourite
26 November 2007
Mumbai: A free fall in the value of the dollar and lower US interest rates combined with the increasing volatility in the Japanese yen and the French franc have made carry trade in US dollar even more appealing to currency traders.
Traders are increasingly using the dollar to pay for purchases of currencies with higher yields, as it is the most profitable trade in the foreign-exchange market.
A basket of currencies, including the British pound, Brazilian real and Hungarian forint financed with dollars yielded returns of 17 per cent this year, compared with 9 per cent for yen-funded and 7 per cent for trades funded by Swiss francs.
The Japanese yen had plunged from a two-year high against the dollar amid a spurt in global stock prices, prompting investors to limit holdings of higher-yielding assets with the yen (carry trade).
The yen, which fell against most major currencies, declined the most against the Australian dollar.
It fell to 108.56 against the dollar in Tokyo morning trade, and was trading at 161.10 against the Euro.
Carry trade refers to speculators deriving funds from a country with low benchmark interest rates, while investing in a country with higher returns.
While the yen has fallen for most of the time, the dollar's slide to all-time lows recently has made it the favoured currency for carry trade.
The last time the dollar was used for carry trades was in 2004, when the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight interbank loans was one per cent.
Since then, it has fallen 18 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, according to the Federal Reserve index. The dollar made up 64.8 per cent of central banks' currency reserves in the second quarter 2007, down from 71 per cent in the same quarter in 1999.
French franc
what is this strange currency ?
Mumbai probably havent realised yet that the French franc has been replaced entirely by the euro, and I guess that should read Swiss Franc
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1820000/images/_1822251_150petitprince_lloyds.jpg
miner
27-11-2007, 04:38 PM
A new record over 20pips diff between the two a few times in the last half hour.
Cheers
Miner
wow talk about volatility in the kiwi - its up and down like a Krd hooker.
closed the Eur/Chf plus 50 thinking of bailing on the Eur$ short - the price activity doesnt look right
- according to Carney should really see a strong move away from the PRZ
miner
27-11-2007, 05:12 PM
Take a look at eur/jpy and usd/jpy.
Cheers
Miner
maybe there was something in the noodles in Tokyo today.
Volatility is something to do with this apparantly..............
EW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=C.N), Profile (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=C.N), Research (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=C.N)) said on Monday it has reached a deal to sell $7.5 billion worth of Equity Units, to be converted into common shares, to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). Citi said ADIA's total ownership in its common shares would total no more than 4.9 percent of Citi's total shares outstanding. Under terms of the agreement, ADIA will have no special rights of ownership or control and no role in the management or governance of Citi, including no right to designate a member of the board of directors. Each Equity Unit is mandatorily convertible into Citi shares at prices ranging from $31.83 to $37.24 per share.Equity markets have picked on this as being good news and rallied in Asia with the Nikkei turning a 2% loss into a 1% gain presently. Difficult to trade news like this with the Kiwi rallying 100 points in an hour - a fall in risk aversion may suggest further USD weakness with a potential move back to carry trades.
Equity markets have picked on this as being good news and rallied in Asia with the Nikkei turning a 2% loss into a 1% gain presently. Difficult to trade news like this with the Kiwi rallying 100 points in an hour - a fall in risk aversion would suggest USD weakness in the move back into carry trades.
petromoney starting to flow a little perhaps with that stake in Citigroup and this (from earlier today)
Dubai takes big Sony stake
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10478505
miner
10-12-2007, 11:31 AM
Ava charts don't open to 11am on Monday,FXCM was showing 163.30 on eur/jpy when ava opened at 163.57,so as soon as ava opened went short,then ava chart caught up to fxcm and is now almost right at 163.30,seen it do this before on a Monday so will watch next Monday as there was 20 odd pips in that.
Cheers
miner
miner
10-12-2007, 01:07 PM
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Business-farming-industry/Other/auction-131043216.htm
well done on the arbitrage Miner
re the Trademe ad - the same old questions need to be asked. If someone has a profitable system they dont really need an investor , they could grow their capital quite quckly even if they didnt have much of their own to start with.
miner
10-12-2007, 01:33 PM
Hi Peat was actually looking for something to crush rocks to dust on trademe and saw that so thought would post it,only did ava on the demo I have for the charts but will look next Monday and if same again may have to open a real acc.
Cheers
Miner
8 Dec Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Many have indicated to me that they read the New Yorker article and after reading of my infamy felt impelled to see or communicate with me before I died. It is inappropriate, I believe, after losing as much as I did to offer a hornet's nest of excuses, explanations and defenses in response to such well-meaning people. I have great sadness about the money I recently lost for some of my customers. and great regrets about the far, far greater amount than their total that I lost myself. But I am not the total loser that the article depicted. Certain publications love to write about a formerly successful man who goes to the bottom, and their readers love the Schadenfreudian sensations derived from such material. I was a perfect target for their article at the time but I am not now, nor would I have been at any other time in my rather full life except for October 1997 and the time shortly before my forced retirement from squash in 1964, after my many defeats. Nothing in the New Yorker article should detract from the idees fixes that I have been attempting to communicate in my books, website, and day-to-day activities in business. The major lessons to be drawn from my recent losses are "never get in over your head" and "never play in a game where your opponent controls and can change the rules and exit points" and "the mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." I knew these lessons before, but I was remiss in not balancing the gains that arise from taking risk and buying during panics against the vulnerabilities that arise playing on such a field.
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
well done on the arbitrage Miner
re the Trademe ad - the same old questions need to be asked. If someone has a profitable system they dont really need an investor , they could grow their capital quite quckly even if they didnt have much of their own to start with.
................maybe they dont have much confidence in their system and prefer to gamble with someone elses money...........
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/andrew_ross_sorkin/index.html?inline=nyt-per)
Published: December 4, 2007
JUPITER, Fla. — A life of private jets and black-tie balls ended with Seth Tobias, a wealthy investment manager and a familiar presence on CNBC, floating face down in the swimming pool of his mansion here.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/12/04/business/04tobias-190.jpg (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:pop_me_up2%28%27http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/12/04/business/04tobias.ready.html%27,%20%2704tobias_ready%27,%20 %27width=502,height=492,scrollbars=yes,toolbars=no ,resizable=yes%27%29) CNBC
Seth Tobias, a regular guest on “Kudlow & Company” on CNBC, was found dead in the pool of his home in Florida. His brothers say his wife killed him.
It was just after midnight on Sept. 4 when Mr. Tobias’s wife, Filomena, frantically called 911. “Please send somebody, please!” Mrs. Tobias screamed. “He’s not breathing!” By the time the police arrived, she had pulled her husband’s body to the edge of the pool, where she cradled his head in her arms, sobbing.
Mr. Tobias, who was 44 years old, had apparently suffered a heart attack, his brother Spence said at the time. The police did not consider his death suspicious.
But now an unfolding drama over Mr. Tobias’s estate is providing a lurid account of fast money and faster living in the volatile world of hedge funds. Mr. Tobias’s four brothers and Mrs. Tobias are locked in a legal battle over the estate, which is worth at least $25 million. And, in a civil complaint, they have gone so far as to accuse her of murder.
The brothers, Samuel, Spence, Scott and Joshua, claim Mrs. Tobias drugged her husband and lured him into the pool. Bill Ash, a former assistant to Mr. Tobias, said he had told the police that Mrs. Tobias confessed to him that she had cajoled her husband into the water while he was on a cocaine binge with a promise of sex with a male go-go dancer known as Tiger.
Mrs. Tobias’s lawyers call the claims outrageous. She has not been accused of any crime.
The mystery deepened when it emerged that Mrs. Tobias spent $9,628 to have the pool drained and resurfaced days after her husband died, according to documents filed in an unrelated case.
The salacious accusations have captivated this wealthy enclave north of West Palm Beach and transfixed the investment world in New York, where Mr. Tobias ran a $300 million hedge fund from an office on Park Avenue. From the Breakers hotel in Palm Beach, a stately symbol of old money, to trading floors on Wall Street, the epicenter of the explosive wealth now reshaping American society, the case is seen as a parable of the modern gilded age.
“I don’t understand why this hasn’t ended up on ‘CSI: Miami’ yet,” said Jim Cramer (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/james_j_cramer/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the host of CNBC’s stock-picking show “Mad Money” and Mr. Tobias’s former boss on Wall Street.
The questions keep piling up, starting with the big one: How did Mr. Tobias die? The police in Jupiter have not opened a homicide investigation but are awaiting the results of toxicology tests before making a final determination, said Sgt. Scott Pascarella.
At the center of the dispute is Mr. Tobias’s will, which designates his brothers as beneficiaries but does not name Mrs. Tobias. She contends that she is entitled to the estate because the will was signed before the couple married. In court filings, the Tobias brothers invoke Florida’s “slayer statute,” which prohibits inheritance by a person who murders someone from whom they stand to inherit. They claim she “intentionally killed” her husband “by asphyxiation and drowning.”
One lawyer representing Mrs. Tobias, Gary Dunkin, said he was shocked by the accusation. “In my 25 years practicing law, this is the most reckless allegation I have ever seen,” he said in court. Her lawyers, which include her prior husband, Jay J. Jacknin, have asked the court to put off her depositions, citing her “psychiatric condition.” They said she hired contractors to empty the pool because she was distraught over her husband’s death.
However this mystery plays out, it is providing a treasure of details about the lavish lifestyles that hedge funds can afford their founders, and perhaps sheds light on how all that money ultimately influences personal lives.
Mr. Tobias, a native of Philadelphia, entered this secretive, often volatile corner of the financial world after spending less than a decade on Wall Street, including a stint with Mr. Cramer’s former money-management firm. He formed Circle T in 1996, with $4 million, and parlayed that into a $300 million hedge fund and brokerage firm. Circle T is in the process of returning investors’ funds; clients have not lost money.
He counted among his investors Samuel Zell (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/sam_zell/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the billionaire who recently agreed to buy the Tribune Company (http://www.nytimes.com/mem/MWredirect.html?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=TRB;TXA). Mr. Zell, in an interview, said he rarely interacted with Mr. Tobias. “I knew Seth for 10 or 15 years on a very unconnected basis,” he said. “He was a good, smart guy.”
Along the way, Mr. Tobias collected the trappings of success. He spent days at the Kentucky Derby and nights at Donald Trump (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/donald_j_trump/index.html?inline=nyt-per)’s Mar-a-Lago Club. He frequently shuttled by private jet between New York, where he worked in the Seagram Building in Manhattan, and Florida, where he owned two homes.
Mr. Tobias made — and apparently spent — millions of dollars a year, court documents suggest. Outstanding expenses at the time of his death included $52,532 on his American Express (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/american_express_company/index.html?inline=nyt-org) Centurion Black Card and $7,960 on his Bank of America (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/bank_of_america_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org) credit card. His mortgage payment for one of his homes was $35,000 a month. He paid $1,367 a month to lease a Land Rover. His monthly cable bill from Comcast (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/comcast_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org) was $535.19........................................... .......
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/business/04tobias.html?_r=1&em&ex=1197003600&en=31737e6a9b8e8e99&ei=5087%0A&oref=slogin
Here's a useful chart which gives RR info/win rate
required to break even
I still find it amazing how it doesnt really matter which pair you're trading they all seem to move in the same general direction eg the only real variable in all these pairs is the appetite for risk.
Tis a long read , but Friedman is a good geopolitical analyst
China and the Arabian Peninsula as Market Stabilizers
By George Friedman
The single most interesting thing about today's global economy is what has not occurred. In 1979, oil prices soared to slightly more than $100 a barrel in current dollars, and they are approaching that historic high again. Meanwhile, the subprime meltdown continues to play out. Many financial institutions have been hurt, many individual lives have been shattered and many Wall Street operators once considered brilliant have been declared dunderheads. Despite all the predictions that the current situation is just the tip of the iceberg, however, the crisis is progressing in a fairly orderly fashion. Distinguish here between financial institutions, financial markets and the economy. People in the financial world tend to confuse the three. Some financial institutions are being hurt badly. Those experiencing the pain mistakenly think their suffering reflects the condition of the financial markets and economy. But the financial markets are managing, as is the economy.
What we are seeing is the convergence of two massive forces. Oil prices, along with primary commodity prices in general, have soared. Also, one of the periodic financial bubbles -- the subprime mortgage market -- has burst. Either of these alone should have created global havoc. Neither has. The stock market has not plummeted. The Standard & Poor's 500 fell from a high of about 1,565 in mid-October to a low of 1,400 on Oct. 19. Since then, it has rebounded as high as 1,550. Given the media rhetoric and the heads rolling in the financial sector, we would expect to see devastating numbers. And yet, we are not.
Nor are the numbers devastating in the bond markets. By definition, a liquidity crisis occurs when the money supply is too tight and demand is too great. In other words, a liquidity crisis would be reflected in high interest rates. That hasn't happened. In fact, both short-term and, particularly, long-term interest rates have trended downward over the past weeks. It might be said that interest rates are low, but that lenders won't lend. If so, that is sectoral and short-term at most. Low interest rates and no liquidity is an oxymoron.
This is not the result of actions at the Federal Reserve. The Fed can influence short-term rates, but the longer the yield curve, the longer the payoff date on a loan or bond and the less impact the Fed has. Long-term rates reflect the current availability of money and expectations on interest rates in the future.
In the U.S. stock market -- and world markets, for that matter -- we have seen nothing like the devastation prophesied. As we have said in the past, the subprime crisis compared with the savings and loan crisis, for example, is by itself small potatoes. Sure, those financial houses that stocked up on the securitized mortgage debt are going to be hurt, but that does not translate into a geopolitical event, or even into a recession. Many people are arguing that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg, and that defaults in other categories of the mortgage market coupled with declining housing markets will set off a devastating chain reaction.
That may well be the case, though something weird is going on here. Given the broad belief that the subprime crisis is only the beginning of a general financial crisis, and that the economy will go into recession, we would have expected major market declines by now. Markets discount in anticipation of events, not after events have happened. Historically, market declines occur about six months before recessions begin. So far, however, the perceived liquidity crisis has not been reflected in higher long-term interest rates, and the perceived recession has not been reflected in a significant decline in the global equity markets.
When we add in surging oil and commodity prices, we would have expected all hell to break loose in these markets. Certainly, the consequences of high commodity prices during the 1970s helped drive up interest rates as money was transferred to Third World countries that were selling commodities. As a result, the cost of money for modernizing aging industrial plants in the United States surged into double digits, while equity markets were unable to serve capital needs and remained flat.
So what is going on?
Part of the answer might well be this: For the past five years or so, China has been throwing around huge amounts of cash. The Chinese made big, big money selling overseas -- more than even the growing Chinese economy could metabolize. That led to massive dollar reserves in China and the need for the Chinese to invest outside their own financial markets. Given that the United States is China's primary consumer and the only economy large and stable enough to absorb its reserves, the Chinese -- state and nonstate entities alike -- regard the U.S. markets as safe-havens for their investments. That is one of the things that have kept interest rates relatively low and the equity markets moving. This process of Asian money flowing into U.S. markets goes back to the early 1980s.
Another part of the answer might lie in the self-stabilizing feature of oil prices, the rise of which should be devastating to U.S. markets at first glance. The size of the price surge and the stability of demand have created dollar reserves in oil-exporting countries far in excess of anything that can be absorbed locally. The United Arab Emirates, for example, has made so much money, particularly in 2007, that it has to invest in overseas markets.
In some sense, it doesn't matter where the money goes. Money, like oil, is fungible, which means that if all the petrodollars went into Europe then other money would flow into the United States as European interest rates fell and European stocks rose. But there are always short-term factors to consider. The Persian Gulf oil producers and the Chinese have one thing in common -- they are linked to the dollar. As the dollar declines, assets in other countries become more expensive, particularly if you regard the dollar's fall as ultimately reversible. Dollars invested in dollar-denominated vehicles make sense. Therefore, we are seeing two massive inflows of dollars to the United States -- one from China and one from the energy industry. China's dollar reserves are derived from sales to the United States, so it is stuck in the dollar zone. Plus, the Chinese have pegged the yuan to the dollar. The energy industry, also part of the dollar zone, needs to find a home for its money -- and the largest, most liquid dollar-denominated market in the world is the United States.
The United States has created an odd dollar zone drawing in China and the Persian Gulf. (Other energy producers such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela have no problem using their dollars internally.) Unhinging China from the dollar is impossible; it sells in dollars to the United States, a linkage that gives it a stable platform, even if it pays relatively more for oil. Additionally, the Arabian Peninsula sells oil in dollars, and trying to convert those contracts to euros would be mind-bogglingly difficult. Existing contracts and new contracts managed in multiple currencies -- both spot and forward managed -- would have to be renegotiated. Any business working in multiple currencies faces a challenge, and the bigger the business, the bigger the challenge. The Arabian Peninsula accordingly will not be able to hedge currencies and manage the contracts just by flipping a switch.
This provides an explanation for the resiliency of U.S. markets. Every time the news on the subprime situation sounds so horrendous that it seems the U.S. markets will crash, the opposite occurs. In fact, markets in the United States rose through the early days, then sold off and now have rallied again. Where is the money coming from?
We would argue that the money is coming from the dollar bloc and its huge free cash flow from China, and at the moment, the Arabian Peninsula in particular. This influx usually happens anonymously through ordinary market actions, though occasionally it becomes apparent through large, single transactions that are quite open. Last week, for example, Dubai invested $7 billion in Citigroup, helping to clean up the company's balance sheet and, not incidentally, letting it be known that dollars being accumulated in the Persian Gulf will be used to stabilize U.S. markets.
This is not an act of charity. Dubai and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as China, are holding huge dollar reserves, and the last thing they want to do is sell those dollars in sufficient quantity to drive the dollar's price even lower. Nor do they want to see a financial crisis in the U.S. markets. Both the Chinese and the Arabs have far too much to lose to want such an outcome. So, in an infinite number of open market transactions, as well as occasionally public investments, they are moving to support the U.S. markets, albeit for their own reasons.
It is the only explanation for what we are seeing. The markets should be selling off like crazy, given the financial problems. They are not. They keep bouncing back, no matter how hard they are driven down. That money is not coming from the financial institutions and hedge funds that got ripped on mortgages. But it is coming from somewhere. We think that somewhere is the land of $90-per-barrel crude and really cheap toys.
Many people will see this as a tilt in global power. When others must invest in the United States, however, they are not the ones with the power; the United States is. To us, it looks far more like the Chinese and Arabs are trapped in a financial system that leaves them few options but to recycle their dollars into the United States. They wind up holding dollars -- or currencies linked to dollars -- and then can speculate by leaving, or they can play it safe by staying. In our view, these two sources of cash are the reason global markets are stable.
Energy prices might fall (indeed, all commodities are inherently cyclic, and oil is no exception), and the amount of free cash flow in the Arabian Peninsula might drop, but there still will be surplus dollars in China as long as it is an export-based economy. Put another way, the international system is producing aggregate return on capital distributed in peculiar ways. Given the size of the U.S. economy and the dynamics of the dollar, much of that money will flow back into the United States. The United States can have its financial crisis. Global forces appear to be stabilizing it.
The Chinese and the Arabs are not in the U.S. markets because they like the United States. They don't. They are locked in. Regardless of the rumors of major shifts, it is hard to see how shifts could occur. It is the irony of the moment that China and the Arabian Peninsula, neither of them particularly fond of the United States, are trapped into stabilizing the United States. And, so far, they are doing a fine job.
dumbass
14-12-2007, 06:18 PM
im off on my hols , i would like to thank everyone for their excellent posts and will be back early feb
have a happy christmas
regards paul
thats a nice long holiday DA!
have a great time and Merry Xmas to you too
it is indeed your posts that have been excellent - some brilliant calls
dumbass
15-12-2007, 07:31 AM
thanks peat
not a good start to holiday , show up at airport, checking in blah de blah
sorry sir your daughters passport has expired ,****ing **** so have had to come home and get emergency passport while rest of familly jets off , daughter in tears nobody to blame but dumbass himself
so got a trade on gbp usd short to fill the time ha ha every cloud and all that
anyway have a good one
Sorry to hear that DB.
I've seen this happen on TV doco's - must be
a daily occurence at airports.
Anyway have a great holiday. We shall expect you
back fit, tanned and rearing to go.
arco
I'm wearing out a certain printer here at my work Arco.
I dont know how to thank you Peat........
..........perhaps you could call around with your good lady
sometime over the festive season and partake of a
little local wine from my ample cellar.
:)
Steve
01-01-2008, 10:17 AM
So are we all fools here on the forex boards?! ;)
Media celebs or prophets of profit? (http://http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10484891)
Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub says it's a job of storytelling, and about getting the direction right. He also won't focus on a single piece of economic data. And the currency he doesn't even try to forecast. "I think that's a fool's game."
Steve
That link is not working for me.
The secret with any form of trading (inc. FX) is to use/develop a system
that suits your personality and then stick to the given rules of
that particular system.
Its as simple as that, and anyone should be able to crack it
given a little time. If they can't then they are not following the
rules, and applying strict money management techniques to
minimise losses.
Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.
arco
A forecast made by Denmark-based Saxo Bank, chaos will take a grip on the world in 2008. Oil prices (http://english.pravda.ru/topic/oil_prices-529) will skyrocket to 175 dollars per barrel, the Chinese market will collapse by 40 percent, whereas the U.S. will suffer a 25-percent setback. All this will happen because of the mortgage crisis in the USA which already slows down the U.S. economy.
http://english.pravda.ru/img/0.gif http://english.pravda.ru/img/0.gif High oil prices can bring only good to Russia, though. On the other hand, even if the above-mentioned forecast comes true, Russia will face serious problems in its economy too. It is worthy of note that the majority of Saxo Bank’s previous forecasts for 2007 have proved to be true to fact.
On New Year’s Eve most people recollect the outgoing year and hope for the best. However, Saxo Bank experts seem to be an exception from this nice tradition. David Karsbol, the head of market strategy for the bank, said that the forecast had not been made to intimidate people. “It gives a reason to think about the future of the market,” he said.
Saxo Bank experts believe that oil prices (http://english.pravda.ru/filing/oil_prices/) will hit the level of 175 dollars per barrel in 2008, whereas grain prices will double. The U.S. and the Chinese markets will collapse by 25 and 40 percent respectively by the end of the summer of 2008. Every third of ten U.S. large building companies will go bankrupt. The British economy will also start declining.
The bank has its forecast on the new U.S. president too. The bank predicts that Ron Paul, the Texan Republican, will take the office in 2008.
On the other hand, if the U.S. economy (http://english.pravda.ru/filing/U.S._economy/) slows downs its development as predicted, it would mean the decrease of the oil consumption and the oil price.
Oil prices much depend on the political constituent. If the USA launches a military action against Iran, oil prices will most likely jump up to 250 dollars per barrel according to a recent forecast by Standard & Poor’s.
The dark forecast from Saxo Bank does not mention Russia. There was no report issued in 2007 outlining apocalyptic perspectives for the Russian economy. The ongoing economic rise and the stable ruble protect Russia from financial shocks.
Most likely, Russia’s economy will not be subjected to considerable changes or fluctuations during the forthcoming year either. Nevertheless, Russia is a part of the global financial system, which means that the country will obviously suffer from a possible economic collapse that may occur in another part of the world.
Dont forget annnouncements tonight
From Jyske Bank
We do not expect that BoE will cut rates today as the macroeconomic figures have not been bad enough to justify a rate cut.
We do expect that ECB will be slightly hawkish in their statement; however, we do not expect that ECB will change rates at the announcement later today.
Oanda spreads are huge this morning !!
20 pips on the kiwi - twice what it normally is on a Monday morning.
10 pips on the Eur.
Whats goin on? is this volatility expecatations or just thin-ness of the market?
Steve
15-01-2008, 08:20 PM
A DRAMATIC headline for a range of 35c! Must be a slow news day?
Wild swings in Kiwi dollar (http://www.stuff.co.nz/4357209a13.html)
The New Zealand dollar has swung dramatically today, soaring to a high of US79.15c, then plummeting back to its starting point of US78.80c before closing at US79.16.
what I should be doing is stop and reversing when my gartleys fail.
a very ugly day out there in the stock markets....
miner
22-01-2008, 11:58 AM
eur/jpy good south again today,got 168pips yesterday before that north blip took out my 100 pip ts.
Cheers
Miner
miner
22-01-2008, 12:06 PM
Potential BIG U on the daily for eur/jpy.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Where are you calculating the potential north target?
rgds - arco
miner
22-01-2008, 12:58 PM
Hi arco as this big U is well set would be looking for it to test and probably bounce abit off bottom of U at 149.24,it's mate usd/jpy is already through it's last big U also(all on daily).
So been looking the same way as you,you posted looking short at 165.00.
Me working on one brain cell still,the big U post before was to complete the south U,did you think I was talking north U ?.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Yeah, I thought you might be thinking of a new northbound U
after such a fall.
rgds - arco
miner
22-01-2008, 02:18 PM
Sorry about that see the surgeon next month,so until get sorted not to onto it,you would think it will bounce north,if does would be looking for a new short entry for my big south U target.
Fly in the works is usd/jpy,as in look at daily testing that blue 105.87ish candle that was supp and now looks like may be ress,if is ress and goes south eur/jpy should follow,even though that will make a very red run for eur/jpy.
If see a north U will post it.
Cheers
miner
miner
22-01-2008, 02:38 PM
Eur/jpy nice turn candles on 15min and 5min around the 152.50-60 mark,usd/jpy same so far.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Just contemplating a possible reaction off the 786 of
the previous H/L, and a minor/major TL
rgds - arco
miner
22-01-2008, 02:46 PM
Ta arco but as I talk tea leafs can you give me some numbers,see both have now hit the small U on the 15min charts so could be south again from here.
Cheers
Miner
miner
22-01-2008, 02:55 PM
Well usd/jpy through that 185.87 and simple turn candles on eur/jpy and both with a 15min U target for 100 odd pips on eur/jpy.
Cheers
Miner
miner
22-01-2008, 02:57 PM
Also see how out of the two eur/jpy allways gives you more pips.
Cheers
Miner
Miner
Current daily print is looking like a Gartley, so there may be quite
a few pips if the Gartley performs (forming EW3-4 of BC perhaps).
I've already taken +50 on one order, and placed the
second order at b/e +2.
I may add again at 4pm/or 8pm when I see what the 4hr
candles look like.
rgds - arco
miner
22-01-2008, 03:29 PM
Ta and good stuff see it doing the back to test now if goes through should do more.
Cheers
Miner
been offline since midday - thats a while for me and I come back and
1/ theres posts in the forum other than me and Arco:p:):)
2/I'm seeing bullish gartleys everywhere
definitely on USD+Eur/Jpy +65 on the USD
bought Gpb/Chf on one (gartley)
closed +77 half an hour later. (had to take profit on it coz it was a much bigger trade than I intended) :eek:
Eur/Gbp gartley failed so shorted +30
Steve
22-01-2008, 10:10 PM
I have been following your Gartley discussions with interest, but still trying to make the time to sit down and get my head around the workings of it...
Miner
Current daily print is looking like a Gartley, so there may be quite
a few pips if the Gartley performs (forming EW3-4 of BC perhaps).
rgds - arco
Max of 436 pips from 8pm/overnight....my order took its profit as I slept.
Current daily print is looking like a Gartley, so there may be quite
a few pips if the Gartley performs (forming EW3-4 of BC perhaps).
just out of curiousity , did you mean with X point being in Aug 2007
Morning Peat
17th Aug on daily chart.
If you check the previous chart on EurYen thread
its the C3ABC pivots
no worries - I see it now - I wasnt looking over such a big time frame. The one I saw - but didnt trade - on Eur/Jpy was 15 min chart and was actually just breached when it went below 152.33. shorter time frames less reliable of course (but smaller stops too)
USD/Jpy one held tho and I got some off that.
trades that hit take profit when you're asleep are awesome - I want more of these! :D
roddy
23-01-2008, 12:50 PM
hi Peat Arco
good to see you guys been doing so well over Xmas,
this is the first time i have been around for any length of time,have been taking swimming lessons and generally not back into the swing of things.from struggling to swim 250 mtres i can now do 1 k in 50 m lots.
CHEERS
RODDY
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