General Chit-Chat [Archive] - Page 6

lakedaemonian

23-01-2008, 04:22 PM

If anyone reads the Miami Herald :) I snipped this gem from an article today........

................the chickens of globalism are coming home to roost.We let Europe get away with imposing value-added taxes averaging 15 percent on our exports to them, while they rebate that value-added tax on their exports to us. Thus, the euro has almost doubled in value against the dollar in the Bush years, as NATO Europe begins to bail out on Iraq and Afghanistan.

We sat still as Japan protected her markets and dumped high quality goods into ours and China undervalued its currency to suck jobs, technology and factories out of the United States. Now, China and Japan have $2 trillion in cash reserves. The Arabs have an equal amount of petrodollars. Both are headed here to spend their depreciating dollars snapping up U.S. assets -- banks, ports, highways, defense contractors.........

This self-indulgent generation has borrowed itself into unpayable debt. Now the folks from whom we borrowed to buy all that oil and all those cars, electronics and clothes are coming to buy the country we inherited. We are prodigal sons, and the day of reckoning approaches.

Wow......

That article(and others I've read lately).....absolutely STINK of the possibility of trade barriers being erected and capital controls implemented like the old days.

I don't know if anything will come of it.......but situations like these usually are "fixed" by an extremely ambitious politician or three working with mass media getting lots of free publicity at the very least.

Just like politicians attacking "evil oil companies" with windfall profit taxes.

One way to reduce the risk of those foreign owned dollars buying up everything is to inflate the value out of those foreign held dollars, also solving the massive real estate negative equity problem with the proverbial two birds/one stone......at the mere cost of destroying global reserve currency status...but that's a problem for the 2nd or 3rd administration down the road to worry about.

The long-term geopolitical side of things is becoming more volatile and harder to predict with any degree of accuracy in my opinion

peat

23-01-2008, 04:31 PM

hard to envisage they wont have learnt something from Smoot-Hawley
but its always surprising how much support populist conservative protectionist sloganeering politicians can muster.

miner

23-01-2008, 05:18 PM

[QUOTE=miner;182369]Went short on roundy top on the hourly for eur/jpy,will give it some room as we may have just seen the top of the bounce,fit = good trading.

Cheers
Miner[/QUOTE

160 odd pips so far anyone have a look ?.

Cheers
Miner

lakedaemonian

23-01-2008, 05:20 PM

hard to envisage they wont have learnt something from Smoot-Hawley
but its always surprising how much support populist conservative protectionist sloganeering politicians can muster.

Well some of the between the lines messages I'm hearing coming from the major Democratic Party candidates include freezing residential mortgage interest rates, rebuilding US manufacturing base, tighter "safety" regulations of Chinese imports.

All it would take is the next President taking a page from Japan's playbook......you can import anything you want into Japan.....you simply have to pass through a Bizantine maze of "safety" and "quality" regulations and know the secret magical password(from what I recall with problems a company I used to work for had with importing Semicon equipment into Japan in the 90's).......but no import tarriffs. :)

Personally, I don't think the US can afford Smoot-Hawley.

Cheap Chinese made rubber dog poop has been used to successfully mask a good chunk of the decline in average real wages in the US(in my opinion).

I don't think American consumers can afford to be hit with a tarriff war.

Although it DID work in limited cases in the 1980's(Harley-Davidson received import tarriff support for >700cc Jap imports for 3ish years).

I just wonder if the same example....where Japanese manufacturers were dumping large capacity motorcycles in the US, literally killing Harley-Davidson, equates to a similiar situation today where the US accuses China of dumping cheap product in the US, literally killing US manufacturing, due to an intentionally undervalued Yuan?

Where is the balance between China's desperate need to create hundreds of millions of jobs with the US's desperate need to keep consumers consuming?

If one suffers does the other share the same fate?

Will respective leaders buckle to nationalist/populist demands to "fix" the problem?

arco

24-01-2008, 09:56 AM

If its true this poor guy lost US$ 40,000 in two days by holding a position on
the futures market over the weekend.

Stock Futures Trader Having Rough Day
Although this guy lost his life savings in a matter of minutes due to the global sell off I would not say he is a bad trader. He just made one big mistake that Im sure will only make him more successful in the the long run. Regardless, his reactions to the market moves are priceless. FFFFF

Children under 16 should perhaps seek parental guidance :)

http://www.break.com/index/stock-future-trader-gets-slammed.html

Not sure if its faked, but even if it is theres a lesson here for everyone.........dont let a losing position run away with you........your first loss may be your best loss.

peat

24-01-2008, 10:52 AM

yeh I saw that already on you tube... it is true you learn from your mistakes, I have. (not 40k tho!)

Heres a good article written by George Soros

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c91e-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html

miner

24-01-2008, 11:01 AM

SL hit on that trade for 271 pips over night so ok.

Cheers
Miner

miner

24-01-2008, 11:36 AM

Short again on the roundy top we just had (hourly),but very tight stop though .

Cheers
Miner

roddy

24-01-2008, 11:50 AM

Hi Arco,

Yes when i watched the video like yourself wasn't sure whether it was faked or not,
funny i have been there at times,when i tend to beat myself up,forgetting theres always another day tomorrow,

roddy

24-01-2008, 12:39 PM

book review Millionaire traders -how everyday people are beating wall street at there own game

the book doesn't go into great detail,but summarizes each traders over riding philosophies,there were 12 traders interviewed and each one shares what they trade,how they started off etc.

so the first trader is a stock buyer,we wont go there!

chpter 2
Guy from the states and his time frame is short term under an hour
main points were

- know yourself and have a trading plan that suits your personality.don't try to be a scalper if you prefer long term swing trading etc

-he personally has a set amount of pips per week he targets,and states that when he has reached his set amount he walks away on a daily basis, targets around 5200 pip per year
- does extensive back testing before trading any strategy,stating he is a back tester first and trader second, if he cant verify it he wont trade it,and will typically back test to 2001
-he doesn't average down but will add to winning positions,in saying that his first goal is to not loose money(trade defensively)and second is to grind out profits consistently

will keep posting,
the inside cover says that these traders are every day people starting off with modest figures some with as little as $1000,who have turned these initial investments into 6 or 7 figure sums
cheers
roddy

peat

24-01-2008, 03:23 PM

Short again on the roundy top we just had (hourly),but very tight stop though .

Cheers
Miner
Eur and Usd vs yen both had 78% retracments around midday
+56 and +40 with stops progressively tightening as these crosses can blow up 50 pips in a nanosecond.

peat

24-01-2008, 08:15 PM

hope you hung in there with the short xxx/jpy trades miner , i just closed the Eur one +93 but managed to screw up the Usd and get sweet fa.

miner

24-01-2008, 10:18 PM

Hi Pete good stuff did better than me as not been watching much today as still sick as a dog,but the good thing is the roundy tops have been working ok,been easier to trade this week as charts doing more what they should.

Cheers
Miner

peat

25-01-2008, 09:11 AM

short xxx/jpy trades
thinking it might be time to try these again
this time I have chf/jpy at 98.41

peat

25-01-2008, 10:20 AM

9.6 Billion rogue trader at SocGen

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4373231a6026.html

how do they not know their positions!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

arco

25-01-2008, 10:42 AM

Morning Peat

As a matter of interest where do your place your stop
on the Gart 786 set ups? (e.g. the Chf.Jpy you just mentioned).

arco

peat

25-01-2008, 10:53 AM

108 pip stop at 99.49 - above the high of Jan 11
so a relatively small trade

arco

26-01-2008, 04:27 PM

"When asked about what other tools the Reserve Bank could or would use in its battle against inflation, Bollard said there was no silver bullet, although he found it unusual that housing investment escaped a capital gains tax".

and.....................

"The Government's principal policy to combat climate change is an emissions trading scheme which will raise petrol and diesel prices from the start of next year and electricity prices from 2010".

dumbass

28-01-2008, 03:30 PM

hi guys , nice to be back in town

i leave you on your own for a few weeks and things go mad ????

just playing catch up , will post anything interesting.

paul

peat

28-01-2008, 06:21 PM

welcome back paul.
interesting times alright.

hope you had a good trip and all the best for the new year

arco

28-01-2008, 08:46 PM

Welcome back DB,.
Trust you hade a nice holiday.

roddy

29-01-2008, 08:44 AM

Hi DB

Looking forward to your posts!

cheers
roddy

dumbass

29-01-2008, 06:48 PM

thanks guys , i feel the love

peat

30-01-2008, 06:09 PM

news tonight

Herald says

But dealers said all eyes will be on the US again tonight, where the Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates by up to 50 basis points, on top of last week's emergency 75 basis point cut.

Seems a lot to cut in such a short space of time.

so I guess this means not much action til then.... I'm not sure what time it will be tho.

arco

30-01-2008, 07:59 PM

2pm US-ET on Wednesday

dumbass

30-01-2008, 09:21 PM

8 15 am nz

also gdp 4q out a few hours before fed

should be a market moving 12 hours

got stopped out of gbp short otherwise nothing on

logically ( and there aint allways alot of that ) a dollar bearish day

but what if they only cut 25 anyway was going to have a dollar long play on fed announcement but have bottled it

anyone got ant thoughts

Craig3215

31-01-2008, 12:25 AM

I just shorted GBP/JPY at 213.02, strictly because i think it will get crushed if they only cut 25bp, the options are pricing a 74% chance of 50 bp cut which is down from around 87% earlier in the week and the currency markets aren't really reflecting this decrease in the probability of a 50 bp cut so a 25 cut would be great and 50 cut I don't think would hurt that bad either way i'll have a tight stop in place before the announcement... For my day (really night) job I actually lend USD o/n t/n and s/n to other banks both foreign and domestic, its interesting all the US banks are pricing in a full 50 bp cut and most foreign banks are pricing in a 25 bp cut

Craig3215

31-01-2008, 08:26 AM

dumbass

31-01-2008, 11:45 AM

Craig3215

31-01-2008, 06:50 PM

hi craig , i was thinking along the same lines , 50 bp fully priced in so anything less could have paid big dividends . no real movement when 50 came in

can you lend me some us dollars ?? i reckon your mortgage rates must be 4.5 % were about 10 %

what does on/tn/sn mean just curious

I'll just tell the partners dumbass needs some money I'm sure they'll be fine with it.. lol just kidding I wish I could, cause I would lend myself some money as well. o/n (overnight) means lending or swaping today for maturity tommorrow, t/n (time next) for value t+1 for maturity t+2, and s/n (spot next) for value t+2 for maturity t+3... so yesterday for t/n and s/n most us banks were paying ~3% and foreign banks were in the ~3.25% area

peat

01-02-2008, 11:08 PM

check out my new avatar

Monsieur peat
le trader de la Moulin Rogue

peat

11-02-2008, 11:20 AM

my Oanda preferences are all changed this morning.... all the pairs are back to alphabetical order and its showing profit as a % ....

gold and silver dont show anymore....

aargh .

arco

11-02-2008, 08:40 PM

Hi Peat

Is this your demo or live a/c?

My live a/c appears as normal

rgds - arco

peat

11-02-2008, 09:15 PM

live.
has come right at home , twas only at the work PC... not sure what was happening. home login runs permanently tho so the real test will be when I log out and come back in again - which I've just done and its all good.

False alarm sorry. Not really a major , can reorder things back , was perplexed by the complete disappearance of the metals tho!

arco

23-02-2008, 12:32 PM

For anyone that may have missed my mumblings over the last 10 days - I am now back at the coal face again after a nice 10 day break in one of my favorite desitinations........the Sunshine Coast.

A seriously rainy day here today on the Hibicus Coast means I can update all the charts and discover all the money I could have made ;) , and some that I might be able to make next week.

rgds - arco

dumbass

23-02-2008, 04:12 PM

myself and the boys have kept the throne warm while you been off galavanting

apologies for me being personally responsible for the end of the drought

we were booked in for a concrete driveway this morning

peat

03-03-2008, 11:53 AM

From Robert Lind of ABN Amro

Yesterday, I wrote about the similarities (and differences) between current US conditions and those in the early 1970s before the 'Great Inflation'. Today, I thought I'd follow up with a comparison of the
global monetary systems now and then. In particular, there are elements of the current financial architecture that resemble the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates, which ultimately broke down in the 1970s contributing to the 'Great Inflation' in some countries.

The Bretton Woods system had been in operation since the late 1940s. In the aftermath of the second world war, the US and other major economies recognized the need for greater multilateral coordination of economic policy, to avoid any repeat of the Great Depression. Essentially, the Bretton Woods system was a framework of pegged exchange rates against
the dollar, with dollar convertibility against gold. The system worked well through the 1950s and 1960s, underpinning the reindustrialization of Europe and Japan. With fixed exchange rates, Germany and Japan used exports as a principal motor of their economic growth. The US also increased its domestic demand to absorb German and Japanese exports.
Late in the 1960s, the system came under increasing strain. In particular, the growing cost of the Vietnam war added to the US's budget deficit and a widening trade deficit. Initially, Europe and Japan were willing to accumulate dollar assets to maintain their exchange rate pegs, as this would help to support their exports. But as US inflationary pressures intensified at the end of the 1960s, this became more difficult. The dollar began to weaken, which left Europe and Japan with a stark policy choice. They could maintain their pegs by accumulating even more dollar assets, which would intensify their own domestic inflation problems. Or they could revalue to damp down domestic inflationary pressures. Ultimately, at the turn of the decade, European and Japanese policymakers accepted the need for currency revaluation.

Now, there is a shadow Bretton Woods system. Since the Asia crisis in the late 1990s, China and other Asian economies have maintained pegged exchange rates against the dollar. The objective has been to support export-led growth. In return, Asian central banks have accumulated US assets, supporting the dollar and US asset prices. This has effectively
financed the US's strong domestic demand and burgeoning current-account deficit. But the pegs are now coming under increasing strain. As the Fed has cut interest rates, the dollar has weakened markedly forcing those countries with pegs to accumulate more dollar assets and run inappropriately loose monetary policy. This is adding to domestic inflationary pressures in these economies. In effect, the currency pegs enable the US to 'export' inflationary pressure to Asia. If Asian central banks follow the example of Germany and Japan in the 1970s and decide to revalue their currencies more aggressively, this might have serious implications for US inflation prospects. China has already started to accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation to damp inflationary pressures.

peat

08-03-2008, 12:54 PM

while not wanting to start a political discussion here , I recently found this article on the now very popular John Key and found it interesting from a number of perspectives

http://aotearoaawiderperspective.wordpress.com/2008/02/08/who-is-john-key/

peat

11-03-2008, 09:32 PM

Qatar is considering removing the U.S. dollar peg from its currency, the riyal, as the dollar’s value continues to drop, Iran’s PressTV reported March 10, citing Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim bin Jaber al-Thani. The news comes after Hamad in January said Qatar would disconnect the riyal from the U.S. dollar over the next six months.

peat

17-03-2008, 03:45 PM

a volatile day!
:eek:

arco

17-03-2008, 05:07 PM

Mmn.....came back after a shopping spree and found +256 pips
(Eur.Jpy) :D

Good start to the week.

arco

17-03-2008, 05:21 PM

The dollar’s fall from grace as global financial markets are roiled by fears the US economy is at risk of recession threatens to turn into a full blown crisis equal to any, analysts said. And with a global credit crisis mushrooming and financial market turmoil unabated, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce another hefty rate cut tomorrow to help confidence and liquidity.We are living through a historic banking and financial crisis, combined now with a real foreign exchange crisis,” said Veronique Riches-Flores, economist with French bank Societe Generale. In the past year, the dollar has fallen 18 per cent to record lows of nearly 1.57 against the euro and is down a very sharp ten per cent in just one month as investors desert the US currency and look to greater returns and safety in the single European currency.
“Forecasts for US interest rates... are being constantly revised downwards [while it is the opposite for the European Central Bank]... which has firmly closed the door on cutting lending costs,” said Riches-Flores. This growing divide between the US and the Eurozone is increasing the speculative pressures on the dollar just as the US economic outlook goes from bad to worse on an almost daily basis.
The latest blow came on Friday when, battered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, US investment giant Bear Stearns said it had had to seek an emergency loan from JPMorgan Chase backed by the Federal Reserve to avert a collapse. Bear Stearns said its liquidity position had “significantly deteriorated”, sparking fears that the problems caused by the collapse of the US property market have a long way to go before everything is out in the open.
“Everything is in place for the dollar to fall away,” said Riches-Flores. On Friday, it fell below one Swiss franc for the first time ever and was below 100 yen, “a level not seen since 1995, which does not bring back happy memories”, said Eric Vergnaud of BNP-Paribas. As the dollar falls, key exporters find their goods ever more expensive in their most important market - the US - resulting in slower growth and potentially, as in the case of Japan in the 1990s, deflation as the economy goes into reverse.
Significantly, both China, now the world’s workshop, and Japan have reported some slowing recently in their export performance attributed to the currency effect and the overall US economic weakness. The dollar is now at its lowest since the Bretton Woods post-World War II financial system fell apart in the 1970s when the US government abandoned the gold standard and thereby introduced the era of freely floating currencies.
“We are near to historic [low] levels [for the dollar],” said Charles Wyplosz, economics professor at the University of Geneva. Given the massive trade and budget deficits in the US, a fall to a euro/dollar rate of 1.50 was both likely and necessary - a weak currency would boost US exports and curb its craving for imports - but “it would be worrying if it went much further,” said Wyplosz. “However, it is possible because the logic of the market is not the same as the logic of economics.”
Some economists have begun to think that central bank intervention on the currency markets could now be possible, although this option has been out of favour for some time given the risks and costs. “Any intervention has to absolutely be successful or it risks undermining the credibility of the monetary authorities,” said Vergnaud. “For it to work, it has to be carried out when speculative activity has died down for a while,” he added.
For his part, Wyplosz said he did not think “they will do that or that it would actually achieve something because intervention on the currency markets has only limited impact if monetary policy does not back it up”. On Friday, EU leaders significantly called on banks to help stabilise the markets while also sounding the alarm about the euro’s record-breaking gains.
“We would like to invite financial institutions to help reduce the instability on financial markets within their limits,” Slovenian prime minister Janez Jansa
said after chairing a summit of EU leaders. European politicians said sharp swings in exchange rates “are undesirable for economic growth” and that “in the present circumstances we are concerned about the excessive exchange rate moves”.
European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso noted that “thanks to the fact that we have a stable currency, the European Central Bank has been responding to the turbulence through timely provision of liquidity.”

“This is evidence that the European Central Bank will do what is necessary to secure stability,” he said.

http://www.7days.ae/en/2008/03/17/the-worst-is-yet-to-come-2.html

arco

18-03-2008, 04:42 PM

There's a Fed rate announcement at 2pm ET on Tuesday18 March 2008.

(On the previous Fed Day the FOMC lowered the rates by 50 basis points ).

Steve

18-03-2008, 07:15 PM

The expectation was for a 75 - 100 point drop, but will the weekends drop be reflected in what is ultimately decided?

arco

19-03-2008, 09:23 AM

Tuesday March 18, 4:19 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Aggressively Cuts Funds Rate by Three-Fourths of a Percentage Point WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday slashed a key interest rate by three-fourths of a percentage point, moving aggressively to contain a credit crisis threatening to push the country into a severe recession.
The action brought the federal funds rate -- the interest that banks charge each other -- down to 2.25 percent, the lowest point since late 2004. It marked the second cut of three-fourths of a percentage point this year. The first occurred at an emergency meeting on Jan. 22 and was followed by a half-point cut at a regular meeting on Jan. 30.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have now cut the funds rate six times since last September, with the reductions becoming more aggressive since January as the central bank has faced growing turmoil in global financial markets.
However, there has been opposition inside the Fed to the aggressive moves. The latest rate cut came on an 8-2 vote with two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissenting. Both Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas regional Fed bank, and Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia regional Fed bank, voted against the rate cut, arguing they would have preferred less aggressive action.
In explaining its actions, the Fed said that it was having to navigate a difficult policy environment that included sluggish economic activity and rising inflation pressures.
The Fed statement said that "the outlook for economic activity has weakened further" but that "inflation has been elevated" with some signs that expectations of future inflation pressures are rising, a dangerous sign for the Fed.
But the Fed signaled that it stood ready to cut rates further if necessary, saying that "downside risks to growth remain." Bernanke and other Fed officials have said in recent comments that they view the threat of economic weakness as a bigger risk at the moment than inflation given the risks to financial markets.
"Financial markets remain under considerable stress and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters," the Fed said in its statement.
In Jacksonville, Fla., Tuesday, President Bush said the government will take further action -- if necessary -- to help the sagging economy.
The rate cut Tuesday caps an unprecedented period of Fed actions aimed at trying to stabilize financial markets and ward off a recession or at least keep it from being too severe.
While the cut was larger than the Fed's normal quarter-point moves, investors were initially disappointed that the central bank did not cut rates by a full percentage point.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 100 points within two minutes of the Fed's mid-afternoon announcement but it then resumed climbing and was up nearly 200 points within the first half-hour after the announcement. It had been up 286 points just before the announcement as stocks had posted a strong rally after Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter. That came as welcome news following the collapse over the weekend of Bear Stearns, which was forced into a fire-sale to JP Morgan Chase & Co.
The reduction in the funds rate was designed to lower borrowing costs and boost spending by consumers and businesses and thus increase economic activity. Economic growth slowed to a near standstill in the final three months of this year as the economy was hit by a series of blows including the credit crunch, a prolonged housing slump, rising unemployment and surging energy prices.
The funds rate cut quickly triggered announcements from commercial banks that they were cutting their prime lending rate to 5.25 percent from 6 percent, where it was before the Fed meeting. This rate is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.
The spectacular fall of Bear Stearns, which had been the nation's fifth largest investment bank, has raised concerns about what other banks might fail as a result of multibillion-dollar losses that began last year with rising defaults on subprime mortgages, loans made to borrowers with weak credit histories.
The purchase of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. was helped by a pledge from the Fed that it would supply a $30 billion line of credit to back up Bear Stearns' assets.
That offer was the latest in a number of unconventional moves the central bank has made, including employing Depression-era procedures to pump cash into the financial system.
In addition to providing support for the Bear Stearns sale, the Fed also announced Sunday one of the broadest expansions of its lending authority since the 1930s, saying it would allow securities dealers for at least the next six months to borrow directly from the Fed. That privilege had been confined to commercial banks.
In other moves, the Fed last week announced that it would lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities that it owns to investment banks starting March 27 for a period of up to 28 days in return for a like amount of the investment banks' shunned mortgage-backed securities. The Fed also announced recently that it was boosting the size of special loans it has been making since December to commercial banks.

Steve

19-03-2008, 09:55 PM

And another rate cut expected in April...

AMR

28-03-2008, 09:27 AM

Hi guys, this is going on another tangent, but how many currencies do you generally monitor, and what's the best way to do so? (I'm with CMC and it's quite difficult to fit more than 2 charts on a screen). Is it possible to do a timed "slide show" with Oanda's FX game between 6-7 markets?

peat

28-03-2008, 10:05 AM

yeh I found one of the difficulties with MarketMaker was that having lots of graphs open simultaneously tended to slow the PC right down and make other apps not work etc and that it was better as an actual trading programme i.e. do the deals through it, than for monitoring. Not using it much anymore. Oanda suffices. With FXTrade tho I change the one graph around a fair bit rather than have multiple windows open.
I generally have a 5 or so that I monitor closely with maybe a dozen or so I keen an eye on. Depends what time frame your trading to some extent.

roddy

28-03-2008, 06:16 PM

Hi All

i have just returned from a very pleasant trip to Xerof territory,this morning in fact as i flew out from San Fransisco last nite
so i am looking to get back into trading on the Euro,which could possibly be in for a period of consolidation 1.54-1.590,judging on your posts and chart

have a great weekend

cheers
roddy

Xerof

31-03-2008, 02:27 PM

As it happens Roddy, I'm coming in from the cold in three weeks for a brief sojourn - a few days at home, then doing the Central Otago rail trail, before heading back to VA for another couple of months.

regards to all on the forex threads - Warren sends his regards Arco :D:D

Xerof

AMR

01-04-2008, 09:17 AM

Hi All,

Are there any forex-ers planning on attending the Auckland Sharetrader meet? It'd be good to meet other techies there, at the moment every other conversation is about NZO! Where are the conversations about butterflies and divergences?

arco

01-04-2008, 10:41 AM

AMR

Didnt know anything about it??

arco

roddy

01-04-2008, 10:52 AM

Hi Xeroff,

i went to the northwest and also Texas!i really enjoyed the states and ford 150 pickups were everywhere,there car fleet is not littered with jap imports like it is here.
i take it i will be able to spot the lear by the number 161, all joking aside tho there is no place like NZ and welcome home even if it is only for a short period

cheers roddy

peat

01-04-2008, 11:49 AM

AMR
we really should organise (another) one just for the forex traders

I said I would in Feb and here it is April already.

Perhaps the out of Aucklanders that would be keen can suggest some dates that would suit them as its easier for us Aucklanders to attend whereas they need to make arrangements etc....

arco

01-04-2008, 02:15 PM

Whenever you're bored the human clock will help you through every minute of the day with an interesting photo, changing every 60 secs.

http://www.humanclock.com/

AMR

01-04-2008, 08:15 PM

arco, it's the first thread on the NZX forum:)

But yes, we might intimidate the fundamentalists with our fibinachi and TA talk:D

peat

03-04-2008, 12:55 PM

apparently the ability to edit posts (for longer) has been replaced YAY.

testing edit works now

peat

16-04-2008, 06:53 PM

what a scathing attack on Greenspan and the Fed this is,

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2008/04/the-greenspan-fed-a-tragedy-of-errors/#more-179

and what a great blog.
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/

I'd never heard of Willem Buiter but I googled him after his name was
mentioned in an ABNAmro article, and found him on the FT.

Economic comment
High roller
Dario Perkins
The search for my next career is over. On Saturday I watched the film '21', about a group of
MIT students who used their maths brilliance to count cards in Las Vegas. Inspired, that
evening I visited the Rendezvous casino in Brighton marina and walked away with a cool
£60 profit. With easy winnings like this, I'm not sure they'll allow me back into that particular
establishment. They probably don't use the face-recognition equipment common on the
Strip, but there are plenty of other casinos I can hit in southern England (I'm not going to
venture up north - Robert tells me that would be too dangerous). But I'll need to learn from
Mr Greenspan's experience. He was the last great economist to be dealt a good hand and
his luck eventually ran out. In recent weeks, it seems everyone has turned against him.
The new consensus argues Mr Greenspan is entirely responsible for today's crisis in
financial markets. Willem Buiter issued the most scathing attack last week, calling the
Greenspan Fed a 'tragedy of errors'. He highlights a number of mistakes made by the
banker formally known as the 'Maestro'. First, the Fed kept rates too low for too long in 2003-
06, creating excessive liquidity in the global economy. Second, he claims the Fed has been
held captive by vested interests. This is the Greenspan-Bernanke put, where the Fed reacts
asymmetrically to asset prices. It ignores asset prices as long as they are rising, but then
targets them once they begin to fall. Taken together, many believe these policies created a
culture of excessive risk-taking in financial markets. To quote Buiter, the Fed acted like a
'moral hazard incubator'.
So how much of this criticism is fair? Well, it is certainly true Mr Greenspan failed to
appreciate the downside risks to securitization. Indeed, on several occasions before leaving
the Fed, he argued financial markets were distributing and reducing risk more efficiently than
ever before. In retrospect, this confidence now looks thoroughly misplaced, verging on
laughable. I also agree that the Fed's focus on core, rather than headline, inflation has been
a mistake. During a time of structurally rising oil prices, the Fed has consistently
underestimated 'true' inflation. Interest rates would probably have been higher had this error
been corrected earlier. In fact, ex-post, it's hard not to agree policy was too loose in the
period 2003-06. But I don't think it's fair to blame this situation entirely on Mr Greenspan.
The deflation scare turned out to be an overreaction to large relative price shocks. But, at
the time, the Fed was hardly fighting an overwhelming consensus for higher rates. Certainly,
most in this industry thought the US was close to outright deflation. Even reputable
institutions such as the IMF and OECD got sucked in. Then, when the economy recovered
in 2003, many economists believed the expansion would soon fade. Remember the 'jobless
recovery', created by temporary tax rebates and mortgage refinancing? Ironically, the
economists who today blame Mr Greenspan and claim they've accurately forecast this
recession, were the same people predicting deflation in 2003. Would they have raised rates
quickly? Personally I believe boom-bust asset-price cycles are inevitable, so perhaps Mr
Greenspan's biggest problem is that he was simply around for too long. Eventually, the
house always wins.

dumbass

18-04-2008, 05:56 PM

hi peat , just let me know if your ready for carney vol II

i can drop it off next time im in town

paul

miner

02-05-2008, 02:58 PM

Any of you chaps know of some ok free spyware ? .

Cheers
Miner

peat

02-05-2008, 03:49 PM

you can get as much spyware as you want from visiting porn sites miner :p but I'm guessing you mean you want anti-spyware software ?

I use Windows Defender which is free and tho reportedly not that good seems to work for me. For antivirus software I use CA Etrust but this is not free and I get license codes from work. For people who dont want to pay for antivirus software I recommend AVG.

The main thing to do to avoid infection of any nature (if you use Windows) is to always update your computer with the Microsoft monthly updates. You should have your computer configured to do this automatically - in Control Panel \ Automatic Updates select Automatic and amazingly enough everything will happen automatically though you will need to reboot once they are installed. They are released on the 2nd Wed of every month.
Also it pays not to look at dodgey websites the most notorious for delivering infection are porn and software hack/crack sites.

arco

02-05-2008, 03:57 PM

Hi Miner

Welcome back - trust you are feeling better.

I use AVG - I've got the paid version, - but you can get a free AVG version as well. I used the free one for many years, and I'm not sure how much difference there is between them. In the recent upgrade they now give a little symbol at the side of each site (when Googling) giving it a green tick for safe, or no tick and its dodgy. Also running your curser over the synbol explains the possible problems.

AdAware is another spyware finda I've used in the past, but I think the AVG picks them all up now.....its find them and removes them to a virtual vault.

Also as Peat says keep the Windows on auto-update.

arco

arco

02-05-2008, 04:03 PM

Just a reminder - its that time of the month again :(

National Farm Payrolls - could be a bit wild and woolly in the trenches tonight.

arco

miner

02-05-2008, 04:24 PM

Ta guys,and here I was thinking I was safe surfing porn sites by putting a rubber on my mouse,on the mend Arco just got to get my brain in gear again for FX.

Cheers
Miner

slam

02-05-2008, 06:06 PM

Hi miner
ltns
http://www.majorgeeks.com/AVG_AntiVirus_Free_Edition_d886.html
These guys have it all. majorgeeks.com
AVG free hard to find now as they want you to buy it, but the above link will get you there.
also fine Lavasoft - adaware se which is good for detecting spyware
Also install ccleaner
http://www.ccleaner.com/
Great for cleaning out stuff, much better than windows delete Temp Files

Send you a pm soon
Hope your well

Cheers
Slam

STRAT

02-05-2008, 06:45 PM

Ta guys,and here I was thinking I was safe surfing porn sites by putting a rubber on my mouse,on the mend Arco just got to get my brain in gear again for FX.

Cheers
MinerHi Miner,
Spybot search and destroy. Excellent little program. You will be alarmed when you find out just how much crap invades your computer.
http://www.safer-networking.org/en/index.html

miner

02-05-2008, 07:38 PM

Ta guys I ran the AVG one,put a few in the vault but what do I do with the "warnings" ones (result,potentially dangerous object) do I just hit the "remove all unhealed infections ?.

Also is this http://www.download.com/1200-2018-5186348.html?tag=vtsplashpc worth a go to see if it will get my USB ports going again as PC says they are there and ok but they don't work.

Any help as usual will be great BUT please keep in mind I know how to turn my PC on and find the FX page and that's about it.

Cheers
Miner

miner

02-05-2008, 07:52 PM

Slam with CCleaner do I just open it and hit "run cleaner" and it wont delete anything I need ?.

Cheers
Miner

STRAT

02-05-2008, 09:06 PM

Slam with CCleaner do I just open it and hit "run cleaner" and it wont delete anything I need ?.

Cheers
MinerHi miner
not sure about CCleaner but if its anything like Spybot all actions should be reversable.

PS there are a few free cleaners out there that add their own spywear to your system :eek:

slam

02-05-2008, 10:49 PM

Slam with CCleaner do I just open it and hit "run cleaner" and it wont delete anything I need ?.

Cheers
Miner

Just tell it what you want it to clean.
Default is just temp folders and Temp internat, cookies etc.
But you can tell it to keep certain cookies.
ie your fxcm.com ones for charts.
and any other setup stuff you use daily.

Give you a hollar monday. Just back from bangkok and a little lagged.
Be good to catch up anyway bud.

Cheers
Slam

miner

02-05-2008, 11:00 PM

Ok ta,catch up sounds good.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

04-05-2008, 03:09 PM

hi arco

you having any problems with one click

i cant download fx files sat close

arco

04-05-2008, 04:00 PM

Hi DB

I havent tried 'one click' yet as I use that for the laptop, and use manual download for the main computer.

However, it doesnt surprise me - that firm has become a joke.

I got rather annoyed (to put it midly) with Infoscan late this week telling them if they made they same mistake one more time I would be closing my account.

Final line read "I have lost confidence in your ability to provide the data correctly, and if this happens again you can kiss my account goodbye".

You may or may not know, but they collect the data from Reuters every day, they then sell it on to us. On several occasions lately they have 'snapped' the wrong days data. On Friday instead of snapping Thursday data they snapped the first few hours of Fridays data, and all the FX candles were totally wrong.

It shouldnt be up to me to have to phone them everytime and point out such a glaring error....they should have checks in place to avoid this type of mistake.

rgds - arco

arco

04-05-2008, 04:04 PM

_____

What happened to Belumats Eur.Nzd thread......it vanished without trace?

Belumat1

04-05-2008, 05:33 PM

I was wondering the same, friends.
I don't know why, but all my threads have been removed.
Did I do something wrong ?

Let me know. I m really curious.

Bye

dumbass

04-05-2008, 07:38 PM

thanks arco , i think that explains why theres a problem

its pretty annoying really maybe time to investigate other options

i was just about to have a read of belumats blog , charts looked pretty good

'BRING BACK BELUMAT' now bucks moved on

arco

04-05-2008, 09:34 PM

Hi Belumat

I cant understand why that would be unless you inadvertantly deleted the thread........I think if you delete the first post the whole thread is deleted. So maybe if you were trying to edit the first post that may be the reason.

Anyway, suggest you start over.......your input is always welcome.

rgds - arco

peat

05-05-2008, 09:46 PM

London is on holiday...

arco

05-05-2008, 10:51 PM

Yes, in Britain its May Day and I think the Japs have been on holiday for Childrens Day.....but the Yanks should be brewing up their coffee just about now....6.50 am NY.

peat

14-05-2008, 07:49 PM

Was wondering (in this case with regard to Eur/chf - but could be useful in the future for others) what standard indicator would demonstrate volatility.
The theory I'm having is that volatility tends to increase before a change in direction. Is ATR an indicator that would graphically demonstrate an increase in volatility?

peat

14-05-2008, 08:15 PM

http://stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/technical_indicators_and_overlays/average_true_range_atr/atr-ibm.png

arco

14-05-2008, 08:56 PM

Hi Peat

No need to complicate it.......

Keep it simple - Butterflies Rule OK :D

peat

14-05-2008, 09:31 PM

nice

but the D point is different in all those three 'butterflies' - I'd see them as a gartley then a crab and 'not quite a gartley' for the 1st 2nd and 3rd of those shapes respectively , and hence the D point is at quite different ratios of XA (and hence unpredictable)

So I need more to assist with identifying the turning point. eg it doesnt really look like Eur/Chf is turning now , it tried to turn at the D point of a gartley - perhaps just enough to tempt one short - but soon busted out upwards heading for x maybe to go to 1.27 X
In the same way my gartley for the Aud/NZD was fabulously wrong...

just thinking online.... fwiw

arco

14-05-2008, 10:31 PM

Hi Peat

Yes, I think this was something we chatted about before,
and its where simple EW can assist in defining the potential
reversal points. We are close to reversal but we need a little
more confirmation.

Try a Dinapoli Stochastic (or 8/3/3) it can sometimes assist

rgds -arco

peat

15-05-2008, 06:22 PM

great to see more and more contributors.
and arco , I appreciate the feedback last night. I'm still waiting for a sunny weekend when I'm not on call. even spiderpeat loses grip in the wet.

arco

17-05-2008, 11:04 AM

Spotted this on a trading blog - thought it might be of some interest

A Trading Plan is the set of written rules that are put on paper for every trade, before it is entered into. It’s the “Rules of Engagement” that tell you precisely when to buy, how much to buy, how to manage the trade and when to take your profits. A good trading plan addresses every foreseeable aspect of the trade and is focused on the primary objective of a stock trader - THE PRESERVATION TRADING OF CAPITAL!
Before entering any trade, you need to first measure the scope and scale of the risk the trade presents and ensure it is in line with your rules and objectives.
Here’s a Trading Plan showing the various components that need to be addressed when planning a trade. It should help you complete any trade with discipline and consistency.
Trade Details
Date
Market
Stock Code
Entry Signal
Confirmation
Risk Analysis
Entry Price
Stop loss Price
Initial trade risk (%)
Profit Target(s)
Reason for Target(s)
Potential gain (%)
Risk/Reward Ratio
Money Management
Total Account Size
Amount for this trade
Position size
Breakeven level

Order for Broker
no. of shares
Buy Stop / Limit
Stop loss
Take Profit Order Y/ N
Trade Management
Trailing Stop Rules
Pyramid Winner
Profit Taking
Exit Strategy for Trade
Time stop
other
Successful trading requires the meticulous planning of every aspect of a trade and the discipline to carry out your decisions based on your Trading Plan, in the market.

Further detailed info on the plan etc, here

http://sharesmadeeasy.com/

peat

26-05-2008, 07:15 PM

holidays in both major timezones

both the UK and the US markets are closed today due to national holidays

which doesnt absolutely mean stuff wont happen of course, indeed could mean pronounced volatility.

peat

28-05-2008, 08:07 AM

so the US dollar had an up day ... so USD/CAD going alright but a heavy hit on Silver. kind of makes me think USD is still bullish impulsive. Note tho that the kiwi wasnt down like the Eur or Chf so that could be a sign of further strength to come esp if USD turns.
AUD/NZD looks like its moving into the C wave part of the correction now.

peat

06-06-2008, 07:25 PM

* Today’s main event: US non-farm payrolls

dont ya hate it when this happens.

AMR

06-06-2008, 10:22 PM

Oh gosh I hope you had tight stops.

It seems CMC are giving traders even more leverage on forex now, with the majors down to 0.5% margin. That's 1:200 isn't it?

peat

06-06-2008, 10:46 PM

a little too tight it would seem.

leverage is a double edged sword.
It can make you a weaker trader which a market maker could possibly benefit from.
CMC have been increasing their offerings quite significantly lately to include currency indices using TWI's, South African and South American shares, and something called the VIX (volatility contract). Reduced minimum trades etc etc...
I also noticed a major upgrade of their platform MarketMaker now v5.4. I havent detailed the differences yet. Its a pig of a platform but I still use it sometimes.

peat

12-06-2008, 06:19 PM

out of here for 8 days.
QLD with the 9 strong clan to see more clan. clantastic.
still hold AG and AUD/NZD longs. got stopped on the USD/YEN short obviously.
have fun - post ideas/trades !

Bilo

14-06-2008, 11:12 AM

out of here for 8 days.
QLD with the 9 strong clan to see more clan. clantastic.
still hold AG and AUD/NZD longs. got stopped on the USD/YEN short obviously.
have fun - post ideas/trades !

Not a bad few days to be away Peat.
The Aussies are picking on every possibility to stop the AUD being dragged towards parity with the USD. A bit like a fish landed in the bottom of the boat with a boot on its head before the hook is removed. IMO they have adopted the US approach of promulgating arithmetic errors corrected by subsequent reporting after the fact (wrt employment most recently lies white lies and statistics) to enable dramatic changes to exchange rate - all part of the anti-speculation/bank domination money making activity). But OZ terms of trade and economy at 30year highs against New Zealand's cellar dwelling seems like a good long term bet. They seem to gloss over the high interest rates, zero debt, mineral wealth, coal prices, iron ore prices and focus on the Americans increasing interest rates .25points:rolleyes:
What did Arco say, 1.31.:D
Still takes brass b's to hold...good luck. Enjoy the rellies and the weather.

arco

10-07-2008, 08:40 PM

Hi All

Just checking my e-mails and thought I would see how things were going on ST.

On day 49 of the holiday - 14 days to go - currently in UK - heading for France on Saturday......should be back on board late July

Regards - arco

peat

10-07-2008, 08:59 PM

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/wavey.gif

peat

17-07-2008, 07:02 AM

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e278a43c-4c8e-11dd-96bb-000077b07658.html

AMR

19-07-2008, 11:35 PM

Would you guys think that being able to handle a forex trading arm makes a person a better politician? Ive just read Key's biography in the Herald and am now even more keen to vote for him.

Bilo

20-07-2008, 10:53 PM

Would you guys think that being able to handle a forex trading arm makes a person a better politician? Ive just read Key's biography in the Herald and am now even more keen to vote for him.

I think we have to wait until next week for the second part of the story. I read today that Bob Jones doesn't like John K. That must be a plus as well.

peat

21-07-2008, 07:54 PM

I would suggest that running a country is a bit different from running a corporation AMR. Certainly some skills gained from his experiences may be useful but it doesnt strike me as a perfect match. Elliot Wave website recently ran an article saying that ex marines would make good traders and identified discipline (in the face of adversity) as a skill they could transfer to trading. Would we have ex soldiers as leaders on that basis alone.
Key is still too green in politics to succeed as a leader imo, and has been quite incapable of presenting a developed opinion on a number of issues. Policy in general is very thin. If delaying the release of policy is a strategm then fine but it must stop soon so the people do have something to judge on. National is a ultimately a bunch of conservatives and historically they've never been known for innovative policy.

arco

30-07-2008, 06:29 PM

Fired up the main computer on Monday, only to have it die in 10 minutes......motherboard failure .........!!!!!!

So a new computer should be installed tomorrow and I can access all
my MS charts.......

arc

dumbass

30-07-2008, 07:04 PM

hi arco welcome back

arco

30-07-2008, 08:07 PM

Thanks DB

Managed to clear most of my mail today.......hate that job after
9 weeks.......

..................anyway first trade going quite well so far.

Long Cable 9787.....+40

...fighting the trend......so lets see how it pans out....

stop at +20

rgds - arco

dumbass

30-07-2008, 08:40 PM

with you, long aud 94 70 naughty boy against the tend too

peat

30-07-2008, 10:22 PM

yeh welcome back arco. hope you both had a good journey.

arco

31-07-2008, 09:01 AM

.........

Thanks Peat.............yes we had a great time.
But its back to reality now :)

rgds - arco

miner

31-07-2008, 09:26 AM

Hi Arco good to see your back in one piece,hope you had fun.

Cheers
Miner

arco

31-07-2008, 02:22 PM

Hi Miner

Yes, we has some amazing experiences......and lots
of fun along the way........;)

Trust all is well with you

rgds - arco

miner

04-08-2008, 03:43 PM

For people wanting to dip a FX toe and not get it chopped off FXCM now has a micro account option.

Cheers
Miner

peat

06-08-2008, 07:13 PM

Oanda does trades of any size ie no minimum at all.

Bit of a rough time for USD bears....

peat

08-08-2008, 01:10 PM

...motherboard failure .........!!!!!!

arc

This all got sorted OK?

arco

08-08-2008, 02:18 PM

Hi Peat

Had to buy a new rig because the type of motherboard was now extinct/unobtainable...................or so I was told anyway :(

On transferring the data from the old disks all my Metastock saved
chart set-ups (Butterflies, etc) mysteriously vanished.......bummer.

So, decided to cancel my sub to the data provider and work on Metatrader charting.........seems to be OK so far.

rgds - arco

peat

08-08-2008, 03:43 PM

that is indeed a bugger....
I'd explained to K.... that "oh no Arco wont have lost any data because his motherboard doesnt store it so he will be ok" but seems it wasnt so simple. Did you get all your other data and just not the saved setups ? Sounds odd.

So you've got a brand new computer? Vista? Going well? I hope you got lots of memory.

arco

08-08-2008, 04:10 PM

Hi Peat

All other data seems to be OK so far.

Strange that I can access the MS files OK and they appear to contain 'x' k of data, but there's nothing accessible......

So wheres the info hiding????????

.............this is what I get.

Any ideas?

rgds - arco

peat

08-08-2008, 04:50 PM

I dont use the app so I dont have much to work with but that error sounds like the app is expecting the data in a particular place and it cant find it there.
I assume you've installed the application on the new computer and now the path of the datas location will be different in some way.

So the two possible areas to investigate are configuring the application to 'know' where to look for the data eg a Tools\Options\Preferences kind of scenario, or , moving the data around into where it should be.

I cant be any more specific than that sorry as I dont know the application.

dumbass

09-08-2008, 10:28 AM

SPECTACULAR WEEK

wow need a lie down , unbelievable really

and confirming the old adage trend and friend etc

arco

09-08-2008, 10:44 AM

>>>>>>>

Yes a good week.

Unfortunately these opportunities don't come every week,
...........so its good to grab the mega-pips while you can.

Good weekend all - arco

arco

12-08-2008, 05:54 PM

Charting Currencies
There has been little change in fundamentals to support the dollar's stellar rise, says Callum Henderson, head of FX strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. He charts where the major currencies are headed, with CNBC's Amanda Drury.

VIDEO with charts...........

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=821240431

peat

31-08-2008, 09:58 PM

For reference I'm going to post a series of pix and comments in the appropriate thread of the Elliot Wave longer term views. They were snaffled during Free week. Enjoy.

dumbass

03-09-2008, 04:37 PM

afternoon chaps

just wondering if anyones in at the moment

i find this kind of market frustrating , im kind kicking myself for missed opps

but how can you get in , when nothing retraces

just sitting on my hands at moment

peat

03-09-2008, 04:54 PM

all my recent trades have been stopped - gartleys just get wiped out.
so I've just been reading that book of interviews that arco posted... in the forex magazines thread. theres no systems discussed though its purely psychology.
Kinda weird how the dollar sustains strength for so long but it is still the reserve currency and the theory is that everyone else apart from the US is feeling it more now. Perhaps when she blows next time (Credit Crunch II) it will be big.

dumbass

03-09-2008, 05:31 PM

in volume 2 of harmonic patterns book , he talks about the nasdaq when the tech bubble

burst and how the repeated failure of patterns was a trading set up,

you need big testies, but stop and reverse may well have proven profitable.

A couple of times i've thought **** it, i'm going to just short the euro and gbp at market

and it would have paid off but i've fought long and hard to stop myself excuting this kind of

amateur trade.

just got to wait for the correction 5 waves up and 3 down on shorter time frame with a

nice hammer should do it but absolutely no signs at the moment.

arco

03-09-2008, 05:55 PM

Hi Guys

Still got a few Gbp.Chf running but frustrating at the moment waiting in the wings for some positive signals to appear.

Some of the old BFs are still running nicely. (e.g. Euro)

rgds - arco

miner

03-09-2008, 07:06 PM

Part of this game is waiting,force it and you usually get burnt.

Cheers
Miner

peat

04-09-2008, 10:21 AM

BoE announcment about rates tonight.

widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5%. But in recent weeks, economists and markets have moved to expect earlier and deeper rate cuts from the Bank in subsequent months. Whether this transpires or not, the logic is straightforward.
Recent activity data have been very poor. Despite a small rebound in the latest
business surveys, confidence remains at recessionary levels. The housing market and
prices have also continued to slip. Alongside this economic weakness, the fall in the
oil price should help depress headline inflation. Perhaps most important, the MPC
seemed to hint at a mild easing bias in the August Inflation Report

Historically, the MPC has tended to act on an easing bias quite swiftly. But, on this
occasion, there are reasons to think it might hold back longer. Despite the fall in the
oil price, UK inflation is yet to peak. As energy suppliers raise electricity and gas
prices through the autumn, inflation should reach 5% and remain above 4% until
spring next year. And with various measures of inflation expectations still at elevated
levels, this leaves the Bank with lingering concerns about 'second-round effects'.

Rather than wages, the Bank is worried that firms use the spike in
headline inflation to 'camouflage' price increases as they attempt to protect profit
margins.

In the absence of a further lurch down in activity, these credibility concerns could
mean rates remain unchanged until next year. With fiscal policy also constrained and
interest rate changes typically taking between 6-12 months to influence activity, this
implies little support to domestic demand until late 2009 at the earliest. Instead, the
burden of adjustment is falling on the exchange rate. The pound has fallen by 5%
during the last month and is 15% weaker than a year ago. I suspect this has further
to run. There are two ways of looking at this. From the MPC's perspective, the
pound's fall should mean net exports take up some slack as domestic demand
remains weak. In turn, this should ease pressure on the MPC to cut rates more
aggressively, aiding its credibility battle. But from a personal point of view, it could
necessitate relatively tight policy. So, even as GDP recovers, the economy could 'feel'
grim.

Bilo

05-09-2008, 07:38 AM

Normally I look at the graphs and somethings are going up and others going down - thismorning it is hard to see anything that has gained - must be looking in the wrong places....

arco

05-09-2008, 08:17 AM

Swissy was up in the last 12 hrs.

miner

05-09-2008, 02:55 PM

Went out with a mate yesterday and caught a few snapper and got my first feed of scallops for the season yummy,yeah yeah I know I'm a b*stard.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

05-09-2008, 04:52 PM

after spending an afternoon reviewing all the majors i have come to the following conclusions

im sick of trying to pick a bottom !

euro , gbp, aud and nzd are going to zero against us dollar !

maybe the us dollar rally is finished !

Dr_Who

05-09-2008, 05:30 PM

I hope NZD do got to zero against the AUD. I would make a killing if it does go to zero. :p

dumbass

05-09-2008, 06:57 PM

arco

05-09-2008, 07:12 PM

I'll definitely be asleep........

.....but still holding half my EuroYen position from last night + 369

arco

05-09-2008, 09:11 PM

Not my trade I hasten to add..............................

I think he should have spotted that H&S (and have been aware of the TL break and test)......definitely a dangerous move

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3183/2805978545_00e23813cb.jpg

AMR

05-09-2008, 09:14 PM

Oh dear...did he not see the head and shoulders, or the trendline "kiss of death"?

Back in my more naive days I had a "$150 toilet break".

dumbass

06-09-2008, 05:20 PM

anybody lining anything up for NFP

general chit chat suggests expectation of a bad number and the start of a usd sell off

BUT i would say a bad number would not be a surprise so should be more bottom pickers to

burn.

looking for a short on usual suspects against dollar

pretty predictable payrolls reaction

euro looking technically very weak

got an auto pilot 100 pips on correction

looks like a flat which should provide another short entry

dumbass

08-09-2008, 09:44 AM

yyyyyyeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaa

looks like its on for the much awaited bounce

pips galore for breakfast

arco

08-09-2008, 10:04 AM

.

Traders will be a bit thin on the ground for the next few hours, but for sure there should be a reaction.

Anyway, I'm off to the gym for an hour or so......its far too wet and windy here today to contemplate a brisk walk on the beach. :(

arco

dumbass

08-09-2008, 10:59 AM

my sentiments exactly , looks like a knee jerk reaction from the sunday night retail crowd.

i ve closed out a long on eurusd + aud usd + eur jpy 420 total

i set a market buy last night and then saw this big gap on the open , its a risky business
setting a blind buy like that. ive done it a few times but never seen such a stong move before.

the euro chart posted above could be a c wave correction or 3 wave but happy to take the pips and run.

looks like another fun week in forex land.

Juggernaut

08-09-2008, 11:55 AM

what is everyones expectations about the potential OCR cut this week by the rbnz on the NZD?, will it keep falling, or has the market already factored in this cut with the recent big fall?

The Reserve Bank is expected to cut interest rates to 7.75 percent on Thursday, heading for about 7 percent early next year and close to 6 percent late next year, to help boost a sliding economy.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4684400a13.html

AMR

08-09-2008, 01:28 PM

Hi everyone, how are your spreads this morning. I would have though the market would have calmed down by now, but apparently not. Time as of taking this snapshot is 1:30pm.

arco

08-09-2008, 01:34 PM

This is Oanda Trade account live shot

arco

08-09-2008, 01:44 PM

This may be more viable - Oanda's quote panel

arco

08-09-2008, 03:00 PM

US President George Bush says mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been taken over because they posed "an unacceptable risk" to the economy.
The two companies account for nearly half of the outstanding mortgages in the US, and have lost billions of dollars during the US housing crash.
The most recent figures show about 9% of US homeowners were behind on their payments or faced repossession.
The federal takeover is one of the largest bail-outs in US history.
It was announced on Sunday by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
"Putting these companies on sound financial footing, and reforming their business practices, is critical to the health of our financial system," President Bush said.
"The actions taken today are temporary, and will support housing finance in the near term."
'Comprehensive action'
As part of the changes, the management of the two companies will be replaced while the firms will be given access to extra funding to support their business going forward.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government was intervening in the wider interests of the financial system and of taxpayers since the financial position of the two firms was fast deteriorating.

A failure of either of them would create great turmoil in financial markets here and around the globe
Henry Paulson on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

He added that the two firms' debt levels posed a "systemic risk" to financial stability and that, without action, the situation would get worse.
"We examined all options available and determined this comprehensive and complementary set of actions best met the objectives of market stability, mortgage availability and taxpayer protection," he said.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would create great turmoil in financial markets here and around the globe."

Please turn on JavaScript. Media requires JavaScript to play.
US treasury statement on the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
The move is intended to keep the two companies afloat, amid fears that either could go bankrupt as borrowers default on their home loans.
The two firms will be administered by the Federal Housing Finance Agency until their long-term future is decided.
The Congressional Budget Office has said such a move could cost up to $25bn but Mr Paulson said there was no reason why taxpayers should have to directly foot the bill.
Funding guarantee
Together, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae own or guarantee about $5.3 trillion (£3 trillion) of mortgages.
But they have made a combined loss of about $14bn in the past year and officials were worried that they would no longer be able to continue functioning if such losses continued.

PESTON'S PICKS
For the US Treasury, the bailout could turn out to be one of the most expensive financial rescues in history

The Treasury's funding guarantees to the two firms - which will include it buying up high-risk mortgage backed securities used to fund the mortgage market - will last until the end of 2009.
During that period, neither Fannie Mae nor Freddie Mac will be able to make any payments to their shareholders.
But Mr Paulson warned that the move was only a short-term "stabilisation" exercise.
He said it would be up to Congress to agree proposals to reform the two firms and address their "pervasive weaknesses".
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said he "strongly endorsed" the proposals to ensure the two firms remained financially sound.
"These necessary steps will help to strengthen the US housing market and promote stability in our financial markets," he said.
Banks around the world are highly exposed to the two companies and therefore, given the febrile state of markets across the world, it had become dangerous for doubts to persist about whether they were viable and would be able to keep up the payments on their massive liabilities, says the BBC's business editor Robert Peston.
A rescue plan passed by Congress in July gave the US government the authority to offer unlimited liquidity to the two companies, and to buy their shares, in order to keep them afloat.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7602992.stm

Published: 2008/09/07 20:42:56 GMT

peat

08-09-2008, 05:22 PM

wow thats incredible... I tried to look at the markets during my lunchbreak but Oanda wasnt playing ball.... interesting how the Feds are doing things on Sunday I guess it means the markets open more fully informed. But yeh this is huge.
USD rally over now??? I can hear the helicopters and the printing presses from here

arco

08-09-2008, 05:53 PM

2008-09-08 06:32:37 story 2585661
FOREX-Dollar dips vs euro after Freddie, Fannie bailout
TOKYO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the euro but climbed on a sliding yen on Monday after the U.S. government seized control of mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to shore up the U.S. housing market and prevent the spread of global financial turbulence.

The yen was the major loser as the move seemed to lessen one major risk to global financial markets and the U.S. economy, reversing last week's broad surge on a flight to safety.

The takeover on Sunday of the two mortgage giants, which own or guarantee half of the country's $12 trillion in outstanding home mortgage debt, followed growing concern about the mounting losses at both, undermining the lenders as other sources of home lending have dried up. [ID:nN07479172]

Still, the impact of the rescue package on the U.S. economy may be limited and the outlook for the dollar is unclear after data on Friday showed a jump in the unemployment rate as the economy lost jobs for the eight month in a row, analysts said.

"Much of the dollar's gains against the yen owes to the Japanese currency retreating against other currencies," said Takahide Nagasaki, chief forex strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"The yen's weakness, and thus the dollar's strength, is a result of negative sentiment being soothed by the GSE rescue plan."

Market watchers said the rise in oil and commodities prices on Monday was a sign that investors' appetite for risk had improved slightly on the GSE bailout.

Oil prices rose almost $3 and poked above $119 on Monday , but the jump was also attributed to concern that Hurricane Ike could damage oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. [O/R].

The dollar climbed 0.9 percent to 108.75 yen after touching 109.05 on EBS.

The euro rose 0.9 percent to $1.4401 , off an 11-month low of $1.4197 touched last week.

The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.2 percent to 78.327 <.DXY>.

YEN HIT

The yen had shot higher and hit a two-year high against the New Zealand dollar and a near five-year high versus sterling last week as intensifying risk aversion led investors to dump leveraged carry trades funded in the Japanese currency.

Now some of that process is reversing, knocking the yen broadly lower while boosting the euro and commodity currencies like the Australian dollar.

"The news was seen as supportive for the U.S. financial sector and this triggered widespread buying back of short yen cross positions," said Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton.

Japanese Finance Minister Bunmei Ibuki said on Monday the U.S. move would be positive for the global economy. Ibuki also said Paulson would explain the mortgage lenders rescue package to the G7 finance ministers later Monday. [ID:nTKU003057]

The euro jumped to 156.61 yen , up 1.9 percent from late in New York on Friday, and shot as high as 157.02 yen on trading platform EBS in early Asian trade.

The Australian dollar jumped 2.7 percent to 90.31 yen , sharply above a two-year low of 84.98 yen hit last week.

The high yielding New Zealand and Australian currencies recouped some of their recent sharp losses as risk aversion calmed slightly.

The kiwi jumped 1.9 percent to $0.6813 and the Aussie gained 1.8 percent to $0.8304.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens gave his semi-annual testimony to lawmakers on Monday and left the door open for further interest rate cuts but suggested any easing would be cautious given stubbornly high inflationary pressures. [ID:nSYD331424]

The governor's comments were a touch less dovish than expected, analysts said. The RBA cut its key cash rate by 25 basis points to 7.0 percent last week, its first easing in seven years.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo and Gyles Beckford in Wellington newsroom; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

.

ng

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

dumbass

08-09-2008, 06:11 PM

hi arco , i have a slight feeling this is a bit of a sucker rally

short small lot on euro any thoughts

real nice 5 waves of a c possibly complete.

arco

08-09-2008, 08:41 PM

Hi DB

Yes. Confusion rules.................once the dust settles we will discover the safer direction.

Gaps have been closed already on Cable and Euro

arco

dumbass

08-09-2008, 08:43 PM

gap closed i reckon could be a new low on the cards

AMR

08-09-2008, 08:46 PM

Darn the Euro fell back quickly. Down 100 pips in an hour.

Arco, what's cable?

dumbass

08-09-2008, 08:49 PM

cable is gbp usd , i dont know why its called that but i will find out!

The origins of this term are attributed to the fact that in the 1800s, the dollar/pound sterling exchange rate was transmitted via transatlantic cable.

arco

08-09-2008, 08:53 PM

"Cable" has its origins from the days when a cable under the Atlantic synchronized the GBP/USD rate between the London and New York markets.

dumbass

08-09-2008, 09:16 PM

well its 1000 pips for the day , its days like to day which make up for all the days where you get stopped out by 1 pip !

should be big stops below 142 in the euro but might just be too much for today .

peat

11-09-2008, 09:05 AM

.5 % reduction to 7.5%

peat

13-09-2008, 06:52 PM

Hey DA, I'd be interested in your comments on my post in the Vector thread in NZX. Or anyones of course but you being the EW man.
The thing that worries me is the impulsive nature of the (a) and (c) waves of the correction and the corrective nature of the (b) wave. Can (a) and (c) have an impulsive nature

peat

14-09-2008, 04:36 PM

cool thx4that.

arco

14-09-2008, 09:45 PM

.

Simplicity is paramount :)

http://www.asiafxtraders.com/images/stories/analysis/12_september_08_10.30am_1h.gif

dumbass

15-09-2008, 10:02 AM

big risk event back in play ? lehmans or wamu or something else

usd jpy gapped down by two big ones , swissy strong.

something going down ?

arco

15-09-2008, 10:07 AM

Morning DB

Leemans in the plop...........and weve got those big gaps again.....

UPDATED: Wall Street (http://www.washtimes.com/themes/?Theme=Wall+Street) titan Lehman Brothers (http://www.washtimes.com/themes/?Theme=Lehman+Brothers+Inc.) appeared headed toward bankruptcy Sunday as potential buyers Barclays Bank of Britain and Bank of America withdrew from the running after the Treasury refused to guarantee Lehman's toxic mortgage portfolio.
In weekend-long negotiations at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, leaders of the Treasury, Fed, and Securities and Exchange Commission sought to persuade the two banks as well as other top Wall Street firms to step forward and acquire all or part of Lehman to avoid a possible debacle when stock and credit markets reopen Monday.
With no takers, Lehman appeared likely to have to file for bankruptcy, possibly as early as Sunday night. In anticipation of that happening, Wall Street firms conducted an unusual Sunday trading session in the $62 trillion credit derivatives market to try to unwind sensitive credit insurance deals backed by Lehman and forestall a potentially monumental crunch in the credit market on Monday.

More

http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/14/updated-lehman-brink-bankruptcy/

arco

15-09-2008, 02:22 PM

Lehman Brothers is one of the Big Four investment banking firms in New York. Lehman was founded in 1850. I give this date to show how venerable are the market leaders. Goldman Sachs goes back to 1869, Merrill Lynch began life in 1914 and Morgan Stanley was spun out of the J P Morgan banking business in 1935. In London, only Rothschild's has such a long history as an independent business.
If Lehman Brothers disappears, it will leave Goldman Sachs as the sole inheritor on Wall Street of the great German Jewish banking tradition. The founders of these firms immigrated to the United States in the middle of the 19th century – among them the Loebs, the Guggenheims, the Kahns, the Kuhns, the Schiffs, the Seligmans, the Strauses, the Warburgs and the Lehmans. They brought with them one of the few skills that anti-Jewish regulations in Germany had allowed them to acquire, peddling goods on foot or with a wagon. Henry Lehman started selling groceries, dry goods and utensils to the local cotton farmers in Alabama. The subsequent history of the firm can be quickly told – from dry goods to cotton broking in the South, to cotton broking in New York, to investment banking in New York. Now, 158 years later, Lehman Brothers employs 26,000 people around the world.
In Our Crowd, the story of the "Great Jewish families of New York", Stephen Birmingham tells how one of the original Lehman brothers, Mayer, at the height of a panic on the Cotton Exchange, was seen striding out of his office in silk hat, frock coat and striped trousers, wielding his gold-handled stick, wearing a smile on his face and generating an air of confidence. A young colleague ran up to him and said: "Mr Mayer, aren't you worried?" Mayer replied: "My dear young man, I can see you have no experience of a falling market" and strode on.
That is the very same attitude that Mayer Lehman's present day successor, Richard Fuld, the chairman and chief executive, has been taking. For he has assumed that while the credit crunch was undoubtedly damaging, it wouldn't be fatal. He failed to take avoiding action when he could. Mr Fuld has taken his predecessor's sang froid too far. For at some point, hard to locate, admirable self-confidence becomes foolhardiness and he crossed the line. Thus this 62-year-old former bond trader, who has run the company for 14 years like a close-knit family, albeit with a firm hand, has been slow to acknowledge the firm's losses and has frightened potential investors away by trying to drive his usual hard bargains. As a result, he has had to spend the weekend wondering whether anyone will now rescue his firm at even a derisory price. Barclays Bank pulled out last night. The significance of the discussions goes well beyond the fate of Lehman Brothers itself. For the Federal Reserve Bank and the US Treasury have been trying to bring about a solution to Lehman's difficulties which doesn't involve the government providing financial help as it did on previous occasions. Thus the Fed and the Treasury have been urging Lehman's rivals to provide it with the temporary financial support it needs without government backing, and to do this for the good of the financial system itself.
And this message, that the government has done enough and that henceforth banks must themselves clean up the mess they have created, is akin to the statement that the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, made on Thursday. Mr King said Britain's stricken mortgage lenders shouldn't rely on the Bank of England to support them through the credit crisis. He also warned the Government against guaranteeing mortgages.
This morning, bankers in New York and London have woken up wondering whether they are on their own now. The pernicious idea that their firms are too important to be allowed to fail is fast becoming another myth. The worst financial crisis since the 1930s is like Hurricane Ike. There is nothing you can safely cling to while the storm rages.

arco

15-09-2008, 05:49 PM

http://m1.2mdn.net/viewad/817-grey.gif (http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=v8/373c/0/0/%2a/q;44306;0-0;0;27598434;209-120/40;0/0/0;;%7Esscs=%3f)
http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/mgh.bw.general/general;page=t0;t0=middle1;sz=120x40;ord=123456789 0 (http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/mgh.bw.general/general;page=t0;t0=middle1;sz=120x40;ord=123456789 0)

NEW YORK
Storied Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. says it intends to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The 158-year-old Lehman was crippled by $60 billion in soured real-estate holdings and unable to find an investment partner to throw it a lifeline.
Lehman said in a statement early Monday that none of its broker-dealer subsidiaries or other units would be included in the Chapter 11 filing in U.S. bankruptcy court in New York.
The investment bank said it is exploring the sale of its broker-dealer operations and is in "advanced discussions" to sell its investment management unit.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D936V3EG0.htm

AMR

15-09-2008, 09:31 PM

My gosh these are volatile times. My poor finance graduate friends, things aren't looking great for their job prospects.

Loads of volatility tonight, I think I'll just watch for now. The carry trade currencies seem to be falling back again on risk aversion worries.

dumbass

16-09-2008, 09:19 PM

another big night , im picking the dow to get smashed again and no rate change from the fed.

long anything against the dollar.

arco

16-09-2008, 09:33 PM

.

Anyone up for a bit of fun trading........... $150,000 up for grabs.

trading period begins at 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday, September 15, 2008 and ends at 4:00 p.m. ET on Friday, January 16, 2009

http://stockstar.financialpost.com/Public/Content/Prizes.aspx

I came second in one of these comps about 8 yrs ago......not sure if I'll have a go this time. (Last time I was using just candlestick patterns for entries). Butterflies, Gartleys, EW. Fibs, etc hadn't appeared at that time.....charting was so easy......:rolleyes:

arco

AMR

18-09-2008, 09:55 PM

Wow that was some USD sell-off. First saw of it when I was looking at the HSI and thought "What the?". Only later I saw the announcement by all the reserve banks.

arco

18-09-2008, 10:01 PM

AMR

Have you got a link to that please?

rrgds - arco

arco

18-09-2008, 10:42 PM

Ah....this might be it

Press Releasehttp://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/PRimage.gif

Release Date: September 18, 2008
For release at 3:00 a.m. EDT

Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing coordinated measures designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets. These measures, together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets. The central banks continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures.
Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized a $180 billion expansion of its temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines). This increased capacity will be available to provide dollar funding for both term and overnight liquidity operations by the other central banks.
The FOMC has authorized increases in the existing swap lines with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. These larger facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $110 billion by the ECB, an increase of $55 billion, and up to $27 billion by the Swiss National Bank, an increase of $15 billion.
In addition, new swap facilities have been authorized with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. These facilities will support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $60 billion by the Bank of Japan, $40 billion by the Bank of England, and $10 billion by the Bank of Canada.
All of these reciprocal currency arrangements have been authorized through January 30, 2009.
Information on Related Actions Being Taken by Other Central Banks
Information on the actions that will be taken by other central banks is available at the following websites:
Bank of Canada (http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/) http://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/exitIcon.gif (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/)
Bank of England (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/) http://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/exitIcon.gif (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/)
European Central Bank (http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html) http://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/exitIcon.gif (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/)
Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/) http://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/exitIcon.gif (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/)
Swiss National Bank (http://www.snb.ch/) http://www.federalreserve.gov/gifjpg/exitIcon.gif (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/)
2008 Monetary Policy Releases (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/2008monetary.htm)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080918a.htm

peat

20-09-2008, 11:53 AM

maybe they'll ban shorting the USD soon? ;)

arco

20-09-2008, 06:52 PM

Peat...check this one out

Midas of misery short on friends worldwide

A NEW YORK hedge fund manager with large investments in Australian companies has been singled out as "the Midas of Misery" after making massive profits through short selling. As the practice was examined in the United States and Britain yesterday, London's Daily Mail singled out the senior managing director of Harbinger Capital Partners, Philip Falcone, as a leading contributor to the decline in value of the British home loan giant HBOS. He is said to have made £280 million (AUD$640 million) by betting that HBOS shares would tumble.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/midas-of-misery-short-on-friends-worldwide-20080919-4k7l.html

AMR

20-09-2008, 11:16 PM

Well, it suits their name fine. Perhaps Harbinger of destruction fund would be nice!

peat

21-09-2008, 08:57 AM

Haha at the name calling of Philip Falcon
Not only is he a greedy pig, but he has his very own greedy pig, with its very own room in a NY penthouse.

Are options to be banned as well? buying a put is a short , so is writing a call , so to be consistent you have to closedown that market yeh?

arco

21-09-2008, 11:01 AM

If there's anyone unaffected by the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, it may be the Lehman family.

The descendants of Mayer and Emanuel Lehman, two of the German Jewish brothers who lent the firm its name in the 1850s, remain a tightly-knit clan ensconced in New York's upper crust. But they have not been actively involved in the company since 1969, and family members say that they and their relatives are not even shareholders.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1022901.html

arco

23-09-2008, 04:33 PM

I'm in a countertrend Usd.Jpy - scalping a few pips,

but on boring days like this I often mooch around and visit a few blogs.

Totally off topic of course......

http://www.marsroverblog.com/

peat

23-09-2008, 07:05 PM

not sure where you posted the comment exactly Arco but Oanda is definitely slower these days,

Did you get my email ?

arco

24-09-2008, 01:44 PM

Europe's biggest banks face greater capital shortages than US counterparts;

Deutsche Bank has liabilities of €2 trillion - over 80% of the German economy

By Finfacts Team
Sep 24, 2008
http://www.finfacts.ie/artman/uploads/2/European_banks_sept242008.JPG
Europe's biggest banks face greater capital shortages than their US counterparts, but have become too big for any one European country to save, according to a commentary (http://shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1712)by European economists Daniel Gros and Stefano Micossi of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies.

That means a rescue of the European financial sector similar to the $700 billion plan proposed by the Bush administration, would be difficult, requiring coordination by the European Central Bank with the participation of all European countries.

The “overall leverage ratio” - a measure of total assets to shareholder equity - of the average European bank is 35, compared with less than 20 for the largest US banks, the economists say, and relatively small writedowns on their assets could have a devastating impact on a bank's capital.

“If ever they were forced into a firesale, they could go very quickly into insolvency,” said Gros, who is director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/European_3/article_1014796_printer.shtml

arco

24-09-2008, 01:50 PM

Peat

Received e-mail OK thanks......I see those EW target figures were quite a long way out.....not sure how that effects the ongoing count.

rgds - arco

Craig3215

24-09-2008, 02:51 PM

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_2Q08.pdf

The current U.K. housing event had
become the biggest tease in bubble history, beginning to
decline almost 4 years ago, then putting together another
2-year rally before fi nally fl agging this year. The bad
news is that as usual it will go all the way back to normal
– which you can barely see from here – and very probably
will overrun just to rub it in. It will make our troubles look
like a toothache to their hip replacement. Unfortunately
for global fi nancial well being, the U.K. is not Iceland,
but a major player in the global banking business, so the
scale of the write-downs will produce yet another wave of
destabilization.
In the U.K., house prices could easily decline 50% from
the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher
than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income! It is a
truly ugly thought that mortgage lenders and the guardians
of the fi nancial system seem never to have considered, at
least until recent weeks. If prices go all the way back to
trend, and history says that is extremely likely, then the
U.K. fi nancial system will defi nitely need some serious
bailouts and the global ripples will be substantial. Of all
the negative possibilities out there, and there are plenty,
real pain in this area is the most likely; I would say, nearly
certain.

AMR

25-09-2008, 10:31 AM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMSdh.rgPmx0&refer=home

Let's ban speculators in oil as well!

arco

26-09-2008, 02:24 PM

Washington's tentative agreement to race through the world's biggest ever bail-out appeared to stall last night as Republicans refused to sign off the $700 billion rescue package.
The stalemate was perceived to be so serious that Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, convened an emergency meeting on Capitol Hill with the most sceptical of Republicans from the House of Representatives. Both presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama attended the unscheduled meeting.
Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke are desperate to get talks about the terms of the $700 billion bail-out back on track. Some senators were predicting last night that discussions over the rescue package, which has been designed to avert the meltdown of America's banking system and a global financial crisis, could easily stretch into the weekend.

While it is not clear which precise areas of Mr Paulson's proposals the most recalcitrant of the Republicans object to, Barney Frank, the Democrat Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, openly blamed Mr McCain, the Republican presidential hopeful, for slowing down talks held at the White House yesterday afternoon.
Speaking after the White House summit, which Wall Street had hoped would result in a triumphant announcement that the bail-out had been agreed, Mr McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, said that "voters have concerns ... legitimate concerns" about the rescue package.
Both sides of the political divide are nervous about the deal which would have to be funded entirely by the American taxpayer, particularly as any move would come six weeks ahead of a US election. Democrats fear that they will be blamed by American voters for backing a deeply unpopular bail-out that will cost every taxpayer in the country more than $5,000. Americans are already struggling to cope with the economic slowdown, persistently high gas and food prices and soaring unemployment. More than six million Americans have lost their homes and 450,000 are losing their jobs a week.
Some observers in Washington suspect that the Republicans may be trying to choreograph the bail-out talks so that Mr McCain can take credit for saving the rescue package at the last minute.
Yesterday lunchtime, lawmakers from both the Democrat and Republican parties, said that they had reached broad agreement on the outline of a deal. It was understood that they had secured a number of concessions which were palatable to both parties including a cap on executive severance pay for banks which benefit from the bail-out and regulatory oversight of the US Treasury's handling of the $700 billion rescue fund. It was also broadly agreed that the US Treasury should be empowered to seize stakes in banks who seek help from the fund. Unresolved topics included whether bankruptcy judges should be given the power to force mortgage lenders to lower their lending rates to help borrowers stay in their homes.
Last Friday, President Bush, Mr Paulson, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Americans that they wanted to use hundreds of billions of taxpayer money to create a federal-backed fund, controlled by the US Treasury.
Mr Paulson, who devised the plan, wants troubled banks to dump distressed assets into the fund so that they can purge their balance sheets. Under the rescue plan, the fund would buy such bonds, which are backed by defunct mortgages, at a big discount from the banks and then sell them back to the market once conditions had improved. He hopes that once the banks rid themselves of such toxic assets, they will begin trusting one another again, and start lending.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article4829274.ece

miner

30-09-2008, 11:07 AM

Big spreads this morning.

Cheers
Miner

miner

30-09-2008, 11:35 AM

Anyone playing today?,nice shorts on eur/jpy and usd/jpy at the moment.

Cheers
miner

peat

01-10-2008, 03:24 PM

am off line since Sunday for a while as had to rush to Australia.
Not even reading the news at the moment..... hope its all going well for everybody in these turbulent times.

peat

02-10-2008, 05:15 PM

seems they have passed the bill.....

AMR

02-10-2008, 05:20 PM

"They were also cheering a decision Tuesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission to ease rules that force companies to devalue assets on their balance sheets to reflect the price they can get on the market."

Well that's not lying at all...honest!

miner

02-10-2008, 05:21 PM

Lower house tomorrow,but as you say sounds like will go through,just a bandaid on a gaping wound though.

Cheers
Miner

Packersoldkidney

02-10-2008, 09:13 PM

Lower house tomorrow,but as you say sounds like will go through,just a bandaid on a gaping wound though.

Cheers
Miner

Accurate description, Miner - question is when will the wound turn truly gangrenous and no bandaid in the world will help.

miner

02-10-2008, 10:15 PM

Hi mate well gangrenous has already set in and they just lost an arm so that leaves 1 arm 2 legs there little head in there pants that they have been using for thinking up till now and then the dormant head on there shoulders.
I don't think they are cutting things off fast enough to stop it spreading so only a matter of time before there is nothing left to cut off,the end is nigh,but as for when who knows ?.

Cheers
Miner

arco

03-10-2008, 02:17 PM

In the end, it was a short-lived reign. Just as well, then, that Andrew Forrest professed not to care for the title of Australia's richest man. Collapsing share markets have dramatically reshaped the fortunes of the nation's multi-billionaires in recent months, stripping Mr Forrest of the crown and elevating perennial rich list bridesmaid Frank Lowy to the top of the rankings for the first time.
According to calculations by The Australian, based on the Rich 200 List compiled by BRW magazine each year, Mr Forrest's fortune has tumbled from $9.4billion when the list was released in May to just $4.9 billion yesterday as his iron ore company, Fortescue Metals Group, became a victim of the volatile markets.

and theres more.....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24439156-643,00.html

arco

03-10-2008, 04:12 PM

If you are bored waiting for the mayhem and madness hour, this interesting article from Larry Edelson may pass away some time................

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2368

AMR

03-10-2008, 04:14 PM

Simply not understanding this craziness. The US reserve bank wants to print $700 billion more, and the dollar rises!?!

I submitted FMG for my Aussie stock contest so now my placing has gone the way of his fortune :(

miner

03-10-2008, 04:26 PM

Simply not understanding this craziness. The US reserve bank wants to print $700 billion more, and the dollar rises!?!

Herd mentality,as with shares sometimes you play the players rather than the numbers.

Cheers
Miner

Craig3215

04-10-2008, 12:09 PM

"I repeat: Property prices are going to have to regain all the value they've lost, and then some, for the Treasury to show us a profit on this $700-billion investment."

I'm going to have to disagree with Larry here... the US government isn't going to be paying 100cents on the dollar for these mortgage backed securities its going to be more like 50cents which is a great deal for the banks considering merrill lynch sold a bunch for 22cents a couple of weeks ago... so even if the price of houses drops 50 percent then we can still break even but sure you can add on interest which for a 10 year loan would be 3.6 percent and 30 year would be 4.1 percent.... as far as the dollar getting stronger it just shows that the dollar and treasuries are still considered a savehaven... its my opinion that this will change at some point in the near future maybe by early to mid next year when gold will burst higher and treasuries will fall off a cliff

arco

05-10-2008, 10:17 AM

Wow............................

.http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1105/iceland-index-weekly.gif

peat

07-10-2008, 08:06 AM

kiwi loooking a bit like that krona overnite too - a massive 300 pips...

absolute carnage out there last night in the markets. gold found some support , silver not so much.

scary times.

dumbass

07-10-2008, 08:11 AM

Wwwwwww Tttttttttt Ffffffffffffffff

Aussie Down Close To 10 %

arco

09-10-2008, 05:45 PM

Thu, 09 Oct 2008
In a sign of the times, the National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record the growing figure.
As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure - the "1" in $10 trillion. It's marking the federal government's current debt at about $10.2 trillion.
The Durst Organisation says it plans to update the sign next year by adding two digits. That will make it capable of tracking debt up to a quadrillion dollars.
The late Manhattan real estate developer Seymour Durst put the sign up in 1989 to call attention to what was then a $2.7 trillion debt.

AMR

13-10-2008, 11:26 PM

Hi guys,

In Phaedrus's absence, is someone with live NZX charting able to pull up an OBV for KIP.NZ? I suspect there maybe some sort of bullish divergence at the 1.10 mark. Many thanks.

arco

15-10-2008, 09:28 AM

AMR

I dont get the NZ charts now so I cant help you with that one. Perhaps check with Db he maybe could help?

Alternatively can you get want you want from Google - they have NZ share chart, etc.

rgds - arco

dumbass

15-10-2008, 07:05 PM

doesn't look too bullish to me.

peat

18-10-2008, 08:10 AM

Just stop paying your mortgage (not just Wall St getting bailed out)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20081010/news_lz1e10schiff.html (http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20081010/news_lz1e10schiff.html)

If your mortgage does become the property of Uncle Sam, the growingly popular impulse to “just walk away” should be replaced by “just stay and stop paying.” No one will throw you out. After a few months, or years, of living payment free, you will get a call from a motivated government agent eager to adjust your loan into something affordable.

To bolster your bargaining position it will help to be able to claim poverty. As a result, if you have any savings, spend it soon, before they call. Buy a bigger TV, a new wardrobe, or better yet, take a vacation. After the hardship of spending all of your refi cash, you probably deserve it. If you have any guilt just remember, Washington argues that consumer spending is the best way to stimulate the economy. Living beyond your means is a patriotic duty.

arco

18-10-2008, 11:50 AM

French bank admits trading loss

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45117000/jpg/_45117133_-57.jpg

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde has called for a special audit of all French banks after Caisse d'Epargne admitted a big trading loss.
The mutual savings bank said it lost 600m euros ($807m; £466m) in a derivatives trading incident last week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7675574.stm

peat

19-10-2008, 08:25 AM

Andrew Lahde (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andrew+Lahde&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), the hedge-fund manager who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, said farewell to clients in a letter that thanks stupid traders for making him rich and ends with a plea to legalize marijuana.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVUE96d.HKyw

arco

21-10-2008, 02:58 PM

Citic Pacific faces $2bn in forex losses
By Justine Lau (http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?criteria_value=Justine+Lau&criteria_name=journalist) and Tom Mitchell (http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?criteria_value=Tom+Mitchell&criteria_name=journalist) in Hong Kong
Monday Oct 20 2008 09:05
The overseas arm of a major Chinese government conglomerate is facing billions of dollars in potential losses after making one-way bets against the US currency.
Citic Pacific (http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?criteria_name=text&criteria_value=%22Citic+Pacific%22), the Hong Kong-listed arm of China International Trust and Investment Corp, said on Monday it had suffered foreign exchange losses currently estimated at about US$2bn.
"These contracts were done without proper authorisation, and the potential maximum exposure under these contracts was not evaluated correctly," Larry Yung, Citic Pacific chairman, said on Monday at a hastily arranged press conference in Hong Kong. "I personally, and on behalf of the board, am very sorry that this has occurred."

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto102020081013587325

peat

21-10-2008, 04:08 PM

so many whoopsy daisies coming out of the woodwork... quite unbelievable. where are the risk management skills...??

Velly Solly !

Xerof

21-10-2008, 04:48 PM

Makes Nick Leeson look positively angelic

arco

24-10-2008, 09:37 AM

FRANKFURT, Oct 23 (Reuters) - German banks gave most to Icelandic borrowers and were owed $21 billion before the recent financial storm swept markets, according to figures released by the Bank for International Settlements.
The research shows the country's banks, as well as handing out almost one third of loans in the Nordic outpost, are the most exposed to some of Europe's fragile economies, such as Spain and Ireland where they are owed more than half a trillion dollars.

The loans bode ill for Europe's economic powerhouse as a global recession looms.

More......http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7912719

AMR

24-10-2008, 11:37 PM

Holy crap. What just happened on the FX markets? Is it my feed or did the Euro/Jpy really drop 1000 pips in a few hours?

arco

28-10-2008, 09:48 AM

Which begs the question.....if they have lost $400m - who has gained from their loss.

Deutsche Bank Derivatives Loss May Top $400 Million (Update2)
By Jacqueline Simmons and Jonathan Keehner
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=ixhpNde38o_4
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/news/enlarge_details.gif (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photos&sid=a8zYbqrxQTn8)

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DBK%3AGY), Germany's biggest bank, lost more than $400 million on equity derivatives trades as stock markets headed for their biggest rout since the 1930s, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The loss, equal to almost half of the Frankfurt-based company's second-quarter revenue (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DBK%3AGY) from equity sales and trading, is a black eye for Richard Carson (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard+Carson&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), global head of equity derivatives, and may signal more job losses at the bank.
``Everybody assumed most of the job cuts would be in fixed income, but when you incur a loss of more than $400 million in equity derivatives that might warrant cuts across asset classes as well as fixed income,'' said Bahadour Moussa (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Bahadour+Moussa&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who specializes in derivatives recruitment at London-based Pelham International.
Deutsche Bank, led by Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Josef%0AAckermann&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), may post its second quarterly loss (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DBK%3AGY) of the year this week on writedowns and slowing revenue from investment-banking, according to the median estimate of six analysts. At the investment bank, co-headed by Anshu Jain (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Anshu+Jain&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), equity sales and trading revenue sank 49 percent in the first half as customers shunned structured products. The credit-crisis spread to equity markets in the third quarter, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is now heading for its worst month (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND) since 1938.
``In a volatile environment, anyone with a large inventory is vulnerable to surprising moves,'' said Matthew Clark (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Matthew+Clark&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a London-based analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Ltd. ``We know Deutsche has had some troubles with equity derivatives in previous quarters.''
Shares Drop
Carson, 36, reports to Yassine Bouhara (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Yassine+Bouhara&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), the bank's global head of equities. Carson didn't return calls to his London office and cell phone seeking comment. Officials at Deutsche Bank in London and Frankfurt declined to comment.
Deutsche Bank dropped (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DBK%3AGY) 15 percent to 25.69 euros in Frankfurt trading. The bank, which agreed last month to pay 2.8 billion euros ($3.5 billion) for 30 percent of Deutsche Postbank AG, may have to pay an additional 300 million euros for the stake after Postbank announced a 1 billion-euro share sale today. Postbank, Germany's biggest consumer bank by customers, dropped the most in more than four years in Frankfurt.
The stumble in derivatives is one of the biggest in sales and trading since Jain and Michael Cohrs (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Michael+Cohrs&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), 50, took over the investment bank in 2004. Two years later, the bank's sales and trading were dragged down by losses from trading stocks for its own account. That year, then-Chief Financial Officer Anthony Di Iorio (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Anthony+Di%0AIorio&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said the bank lost less than 100 million euros trading stocks for its own account in the second quarter.
Bonuses Forgone
Ackermann, 60, the highest-paid executive within Germany's top 30 companies, opted to forgo his 2008 bonus. Cohrs and Jain, 45, also agreed to go without the year-end payouts.
Volatile markets are curbing revenue at some of the world's largest banks. New York-based Citigroup Inc. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=C%3AUS) said on Oct. 16 revenue from equity trading fell 54 percent in the third quarter on losses in convertibles, holdings of government sponsored enterprises and proprietary trading. Credit Suisse Group AG (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSGN%3AVX) said last week 1.7 billion Swiss francs ($1.5 billion) of trading losses contributed to its second unprofitable quarter this year.
Deutsche Bank said in July second-quarter revenue from equity sales and trading dropped to 830 million euros from 1.4 billion euros in the same period a year earlier as demand for equity derivatives waned.
``The dislocations on capital markets in September must have had a catastrophic impact on the business'' at Deutsche Bank, Dirk Becker (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dirk+Becker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a Frankfurt-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, said in a note to investors.
Lehman Bankruptcy
Deutsche Bank's securities unit, known as corporate banking and securities, accounted for almost half of the company's total profit in 2007.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LEH%3AUS) bankruptcy on Sept. 15 roiled equity and debt markets and forced governments from Washington to Berlin to shore up banks' capital. Deutsche Bank has booked markdowns of 7.3 billion euros since last year, and banks and brokers worldwide have reported credit losses and writedowns of more than $670 billion since the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8zYbqrxQTn8&refer=worldwide#

arco

28-10-2008, 04:24 PM

What exactly does the Windows Key do on your keyboard?

When used in combination with other keys, here’s what you can do:

Windows Key + Tab: Cycle thru buttons in Task Bar
Windows Key + D: Minimize or restore all windows
Windows Key + E: Launch Windows Explorer
Windows Key + F: Launch Search for Files
Windows Key + Ctrl + F: Launch Search for Computers
Windows Key + F1: Launch the Help & Support Ctr
Windows Key + R: Launch the Run dialog box
Windows Key + Pause/Break: System Properties box
Windows Key + M: Minimizes all open windows
Windows Key + Shift + M: Undo minimize all windows
Windows Key + L: Locks the workstation
Windows Key + U: Launch the Utility Manager
Windows Key by its self: Brings up Start menu

Plus, here's a few extra ones if you have Vista ...

Windows Key + G: Cycle through the Sidebar Gadgets
Windows Key + T: Cycle thru programs on Task Bar
Windows Key + U: Open the Ease of Access Center
Windows Key + X: Open the Windows Mobile Center

peat

28-10-2008, 07:01 PM

What exactly does the Windows Key do on your keyboard?

Alt-Tab is better than Windows-Tab imo
I've longtime used Windows-E and M but didnt know about Windows-R and I use the run command a lot so thats cool.

peat

29-10-2008, 01:33 PM

US Fed to lend NZ Reserve Bank $US15 billion

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10539933

wtf???

arco

29-10-2008, 02:07 PM

Interesting Peat........

...................paper for paper......................easy to print :)

arco

29-10-2008, 02:36 PM

Charting is an international language

http://www.plan.ru/

arco

29-10-2008, 09:06 PM

Not sure how you can view all your charts at once here....looks a bit messy

http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a288/stljeffbb/HPIM0295.jpg

AMR

04-11-2008, 11:38 AM

Does anyone know how to get a long term chart of crude oil into incredible charts like Colin's trading diary?

arco

04-11-2008, 12:26 PM

Have you tried Google??

or maybe ino.com

rgds - arco

peat

05-11-2008, 08:13 AM

a big night! Euro up 400 pips. Only got 186... I dont usually remove the take profit setting on trades but I did on this occasion. If I slept better I would've got more pips but I woke up about midnite and closed out. oh well...

arco

05-11-2008, 08:58 AM

I managed a nice ride on Eur.Jpy.....

could have done a bit better I think.....

..thats the problem with our time difference.

Hoop

05-11-2008, 10:29 AM

Does anyone know how to get a long term chart of crude oil into incredible charts like Colin's trading diary?

AMR...Go into your Incredible Charts Pro program
At top left corner click on securities
From the drop down window click on world indexes
From the drop down window click on IPE Brent afternoon markers.
This brings up the chart for Brent crude ..is this near enough for what you want?

dumbass

05-11-2008, 01:52 PM

*There is an 'Old Version' and a 'Modern Version' .... Two Different
Versions! ** **Two Different Morals!

OLD VERSION:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his
house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays
the summer away. ** **Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.

The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.

MORAL OF THE STORY: ** **Be responsible for yourself!

-------------------------------------------

MODERN VERSION:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his
house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays
the summer away.

Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and
demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed
while others are cold and starving.

TV1, TV3 and Maori TV show up to provide pictures of the shivering
grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a
table filled with food. New Zealand is stunned by the sharp contrast.

How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper
is allowed to suffer so?

Kermit the Frog appears on Good Morning with the grasshopper, and
everybody cries when they sing, 'It's Not Easy Being Green.'

Sue Bradford stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where
the news stations film the group singing, 'We shall overcome.'

Gordon Copeland then has the group kneel down to pray to God for the
grasshopper's sake.

Michael Cullen exclaims in an interview with John Campbell that the ant
has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and both call for an
immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share as the ant
is too much of a "Rich Prick."

Finally, the Labour Party drafts the Economic Equity & Anti-Grasshopper
Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.

The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green
bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is
confiscated by the government.

Winston gets his old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a
defamation suit against the ant, and the case is tried before a panel of
judges that Helen appointed from a list of single-parent welfare recipients.

The ant loses the case.

The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of
the ant's food while the government house he is in, which just happens
to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him because he doesn't
maintain it.

The ant has disappeared in the snow.

The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident and the house,
now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the once
peaceful neighbourhood.

MORAL OF THE STORY: ** **Be VERY careful how you vote in 2008!!*

AMR

05-11-2008, 01:59 PM

Dumbass. That rocks!

AMR

05-11-2008, 11:13 PM

AMR...Go into your Incredible Charts Pro program
At top left corner click on securities
From the drop down window click on world indexes
From the drop down window click on IPE Brent afternoon markers.
This brings up the chart for Brent crude ..is this near enough for what you want?

Aha! Thanks a heap hoop!

STRAT

06-11-2008, 08:41 AM

Aha! Thanks a heap hoop!Thanks for pointing this out to me AMR and Thanks Hoop you are a legend. Ive been looking for this high and low and I already had it :o

airedale

07-11-2008, 12:50 PM

Does anyone know how to get a long term chart of crude oil into incredible charts like Colin's trading diary?

Hi AMR, I see that there are a good selection of oil charts from 3 months to 15 years at www.findata.co.nz (http://www.findata.co.nz). You will find them under the commodities tab.

AMR

07-11-2008, 11:28 PM

Thanks airedale.

How is everyone else doing with this choppy FX market? Is it just me or are things whipsawing like crazy? I'm trading 4hr timeframes...keep getting hit by freight trains.

peat

27-11-2008, 06:23 PM

Thanksgiving in USA tonight

arco

12-12-2008, 02:44 PM

LONDON, England (CNN) -- What recession? Christie's, the famed auction house, this week sold a nearly 36-carat diamond for $24.3 million, which it said was the highest price for a diamond sold at auction.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/WORLD/europe/12/11/diamond.record/art.diamond.gi.jpgThe 35.56-carat diamond dates back to the 17th century.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_wire_BL.gif

The previous record was a mere $16.5 million for a 100-carat diamond in 1995, Christie's said.
"In the midst of these challenging times, we were thrilled to achieve an historic price for an historic diamond," said Francois Curiel, chairman of Christie's Europe and auctioneer for Wednesday's sale.
The 35.56-carat Wittelsbach blue diamond, dating to the 17th century, was purchased by international jeweler Laurence Graff, the auction house said in a release. Graff was bidding against Aleks Paul of Essex Global Trading, a professional of Russian origin based in New York, Christie's said.
"Known as 'Der Blaue Wittelsbacher' since 1722, it is one of very few diamonds which can claim 17th century heritage, incredible rarity and exceptional beauty."
The diamond, mined in India nearly 400 years ago, has been privately owned since 1964. Until 1723, Christie's said, all diamonds worn by European royalty came from India.
The diamond has a royal lineage. Christie's traces it thus: King Philip IV of Spain (1605-1665) selected the diamond in 1664 as part of a dowry for his daughter, the Infanta Margarita Teresa (1651-1673). She had become engaged to Leopold I of Austria (1640-1705), who later became Holy Roman Emperor. When she died in 1673, her husband retained the diamond, which was passed on to his heirs.
In 1722, the diamond entered the Wittelsbach family when the Archduchess Maria Amalia of Austria (1701-1756) married the Bavarian Crown Prince, Charles Albert (1697-1745). It was worn by successive rulers until the abdication of King Ludwig III (1845-1921) in 1918.
The world's largest deep blue diamond is the "Hope Diamond," a 45.52-carat stone housed at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, DC.
Diamonds apparently are recession-proof. Christie's reported jewelry sales of $226 million for the first half of 2008, calling it "the best jewelry season ever seen at auction." Sales for the first six months of this year marked a 32 percent increase over the same period in 2007, Christie's said.
According to Christie's, key diamonds the company sold in the first half of 2008 included a 13.39-carat fancy intense blue diamond that fetched $8.9 million in Geneva on May 14 and the pear-shaped potentially flawless 38-carat Onassis diamond, which sold for $7.1 million on June 11 in London.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/12/11/diamond.record/index.html?eref=ib_topstories

miner

15-12-2008, 02:33 PM

Any of you guys paying for broadband and getting dialup speed ?,a whopping 55kbps.

Cheers
Miner

peat

15-12-2008, 08:03 PM

http://www.nzdsl.co.nz/

Last Result:

Download Speed: 3912 kbps (489 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 137 kbps (17.1 KB/sec transfer rate)

AMR

15-12-2008, 08:28 PM

Maybe a neighbour used up the quota on your behalf?

Download = 1573kbps (196.6kb/s)
Upload = 138kbps (17.3kb/s)

miner

15-12-2008, 08:46 PM

Slowest today at 6.25pm download 33kbps upload 46kbps,as for quota,"You have used 100% of your existing PDQ 1G (gigabyte) pack and a new 1G pack has been added to your account.

PDQ 1G is charged at only $2.95 per 1G pack. Unused portions of usage packs cannot be carried forward to subsequent billing months."

On the phone to the w*nkers now.

Cheers
miner

miner

15-12-2008, 09:11 PM

arco

17-12-2008, 08:39 AM

FOMC meeting early this morning is expected to announce an interest rate cut to 0%.

This will probably not make much difference. Japan tried this ploy after its real estate bubble and had little effect. In reality, the rate is already below zero when you factor in inflation.

Aussie

17-12-2008, 09:46 AM

USD dropping like a stone on the index . . . from a high of 88 in mid November to a little over 80 after the rate decision this morning. Ouch! I'd say the rally is over.

1097

Gold up $25 overnight . . .

airedale

17-12-2008, 12:56 PM

After 15min on hold answer was telecom may have turned my speed down ???,we have sent them a ticket,see what its like tomorrow,that was after the usual blame my end,you know the your modem is dodgy line.

Cheers
miner

Hi miner, I had a call from a Telecom rep the other day. They wanted to double my broadband allowance from my basic 3 gigs to 6 gigs at no extra cost. The catch was I had to sign up for a year and to break the contract would cost $180. Not sure what would happen at the end of the 12 month period. I didn't sign up.

miner

17-12-2008, 02:18 PM

They wont be giving anything away,there would be a catch,don't know what my lot did but for now am connected at 3.7Mbps,so ok for now.

Cheers
miner

arco

17-12-2008, 02:32 PM

Often Telecom dont tell you on the phone about any 'contract' break penalties.

Last year they phoned to ask if I would like to have a free cordless phone, the only catch was if I canceled my current plan within 12 months I would have to pay for the phone.

A few weeks ago I got called about the new Total Home package. I could save $7 a month based on my existing usage, and also make free call within NZ. bla bla bla.

I did change to that, but again discovered when I received the confirmation letter that there was a penalty of $150 to break the plan. That information was printed out of site on the rear of the letter......very crafty.

No mention of that penalty on the 2 occasions I received a call.

peat

24-12-2008, 10:50 AM

Merry Xmas and a prosperous New Year to all you traders out there.

:)

arco

24-12-2008, 11:25 AM

Thanks Peat

http://www.gifmania.co.uk/christmas/xmas-lights/bli_li03.gif

Have a great Christmas everyone, and a profitable New Year

arco
http://www.gifmania.co.uk/christmas/assistants/tcelf.gif

GeorgeW

26-12-2008, 01:47 AM

Merry Christmas and Have a Wonderful New Year!

arco

27-12-2008, 10:24 PM

Fortis, the troubled Belgian bank whose future has been clouded by a top-level political crisis, has admitted losing almost €300m (£280m) after an ill-fated move into sterling and the US dollar.
The loss, which makes a significant dent in Fortis's remaining cash reserves, was incurred following the suspension of its proposed takeover by France's BNP Paribas.
Fortis said this morning that it had bought undisclosed amounts of both currencies (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/currencies) on 8 December, in preparation for the merger with BNP. The deal was hit by a legal challenge four days later and the subsequent collapse of the Belgian government.
The pound and the dollar have since slid in value versus the euro, and it appears that Fortis did not take the precaution of hedging the transaction.
"Given the current uncertainty, Fortis decided to sell the US dollars and pounds sterling again, resulting in a net loss for Fortis of €295m. This loss reflects the recent devaluation of the US dollar and the pound sterling," it said today.
The loss cuts Fortis's net cash reserves down from €2.1bn to €1.8bn. Shares in the bank fell by almost 10% following the admission.
A deal to save Fortis was hammered out at the end of September by the European Central Bank with the governments of the Netherlands, Belgium (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/belgium) and Luxembourg.
BNP later agreed to buy Fortis's Belgian operations, a deal that would create a new European banking powerhouse, with more retail deposits than any eurozone rival. But a Belgian court blocked the deal on 12 December, arguing the Belgian government had acted incorrectly by not consulting shareholders first.
Last Friday, the Belgium government collapsed after claims that the prime minister, Yves Leterme, had attempted to influence the court's decision.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/24/fortis-bank-belgium-sterling-dollar

dumbass

28-12-2008, 09:08 AM

happy christmas ,

True to Saxo Bank’s now annual tradition, we in Strategy and Research are delighted to present our “10 Outrageous Claims” for 2009.

The primary reason for doing this “Black Swan” exercise every year is to counter-balance human psychology, which is usually skewed towards optimism. We tend to be somewhat more pessimistic in our Yearly Outlook than the average analyst in the market, and believe that it is important for the investor to always factor in the less likely scenarios (as perceived by the market). Please keep in mind that this is more of a thought exercise than a set of outright predictions – we do not consider the chances are better than 50-50 for all of these claims.

Iranian Revolution

The Iranian economy is already under pressure. However, the single most important export good is oil, and since we expect oil to trade as low as $40 or even $35, the purchasing power of Iranian society in USD will diminish. The government will come under severe pressure as they will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities. There are limits as to how much the Iranian population will stand for. These limits are flexible in a well functioning economy, but with energy prices declining rapidly, social unrest and dissatisfaction are guaranteed.

Crude @ 25 USD

Crude will trade lower during 2009 as demand slows due to the worst, global economic contraction since the Great Depression. We will see production cuts by OPEC but, due to disagreement within OPEC, the cuts will not be as substantial as those required to stop crude falling from the current levels. Furthermore, oil producing and less mature countries that have grown dependent on oil revenues in order to please their populations, will desperately break any concerted efforts to keep oil prices high.

S&P500 in 500

S&P500 will hit 500 in 2009. The primary reason for this will be falling earnings, rather than falling P/E ratios (since the low interest rates justify relatively high P/Es). There are several reasons why earnings will continue to drop:

Consumers will no longer be able to extent their credit from banks, since the banks are writing off losses and need to lower their balances
Cost of funds have also increased in the corporate sector – and especially for debt-financed consumption
Total housing equity is vaporising and will no longer be able to serve as collateral for loans
Companies will curb their investing programs, which will hurt B2B business models.
Italy will make good on threats to leave the ERM

Italy has a long-running affection for devaluations, something which is not possible within the single-currency cooperation of the ERM. Government finances are under immense pressure and the ERM requirements will not only be violated, but they will be completely ignored in 2009. EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, but Italy could make good on previous threats to leave the ERM completely.

AUDJPY to 40

The Australian economy is heavily influenced by the commodity market and a large part of the country’s economic expansion in the past year has been driven by the commodity boom. We believe the whole commodity complex will be left dead in the water for the next ten years due to real demand destruction caused by the high prices over the past five years. At the same time, we are bullish JPY with the big, Japanese Current Account Deficit and overwhelming domestic savings.

EURUSD to 0.95 – and then to 1.30

The potential problems in the Eurozone are simply not getting the attention they deserve. European bank balances are under tremendous pressure due to the outsized exposure to Eastern Europe – a region that will increasingly falter during 2009. At the same time intra-European economic tensions are increasing as witnessed by the government bond spreads vs. Bunds. Additionally, the USD is the primary medium of exchange in money markets, which ensures that as long as they stay tight, USD demand will be high. That said, the USD isn’t a sound currency and the obvious problems in the Eurozone are all priced in very quickly. Thus, a move to 0.95 will be undershooting the fundamental case, meaning a return to 1.30.

Chinese GDP growth to 0%

This is as close to recession that China will get in 2009. The export-driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free-fall economic activity in the US. Furthermore, many of the commodity-based investments that have been undertaken over the past five years will sour with the collapsing commodity prices. Since the Chinese economy has been stimulated by overly expansive monetary policy for years, more of the thereby induced speculative excesses will also be revealed in 2009.

Pre-Ins First Out

We believe that several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009. Several of these countries already have extremely large Current Account Deficits and their required refinancing will make them vulnerable to additional credit market disruptions. This especially goes for the Baltic currencies.

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30% (to 150)

Commodities might have been an even bigger bubble over the past years than equities (but not credit derivatives). We believe the speculative excesses have been so large they have even skewed the demand and supply statistics. We even doubt the consensus belief that demand has been outstripping supply for years is true. Hidden stockpiles of, especially, industrial metals will be unloaded during 2009 and that will press prices even lower.

First Asian currency to be pegged to CNY

China’s economic, political and cultural influence is growing and a return from Phony Economics to Old School economics will lead everyone to focus on the important issues. In other words: Who has the productive potential? Who holds the debt? Who has growth and savings? Most of the answers will favour China, and the Asian economies will increasingly look towards China to find new trade partners and to scale down on the hitherto US-centric agenda.