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arco
27-04-2005, 02:38 PM
Xerof

I noticed the tipster who posted the diamond
pattern was getting some negative comments
on the link you gave me.

Apparantly a subscriber who started with him
on 28th March said he was now minus 730 pips
on the paid for recommendations.

arco

Xerof
27-04-2005, 03:00 PM
Yes I did note on his website, where he posts results, that he's had a dreadful run lately.

http://www.stormyforex.com/index.aspx

Before that though, he seems to have done quite well.

Must admit I have been pretty flat myself for the past few weeks, but on a bit of a roll currently.

There have been some strange moves post-data releases lately, where markets have moved counterintuitively to the data (at least IMO, and I note the same view has been expressed in some other commentaries)

I haven't followed this guy at all, just monitoring some of the stuff he posts on the forums, but he apparently makes weekly calls which are good for the whole week, without updates etc, so in choppy markets he'll get killed I'd say

Just got back in to the office and see things have developed nicely this afternoon....

regards

Xerof

Dazza
28-04-2005, 02:48 PM
im wondering where can i find FREE access to charts etc for FX?
the one on ig markets aint soo good eh..

and does bigcharts have it?

Xerof
28-04-2005, 02:56 PM
This is what I use - open to any better suggestions myself...

http://www.netdania.com/home.asp

Go to chart station, then click [u]try demo now </u>button, and bombs away.

Only snag is you have to set them up each time you go back to the site, unless you keep PC permanently online

Xerof

arco
28-04-2005, 04:00 PM
Xerof
quote:Only snag is you have to set them up each time you go back to the site, unless you keep PC permanently online

OK.....this might save you one hellava lot of work.

Forget the funny writing, it makes no difference,
ho here................

http://www.arabonlinebrokers.com/chartsindex.htm

Try the FX Power charts...you can save your chart
set ups, etc.

Have fun

arco

Xerof
28-04-2005, 04:15 PM
thanks Arco - its netdania in drag, but I do note you are able to save the charts to a workspace - fantastic, thanks

Xerof
28-04-2005, 09:56 PM
Arco,

I read your post on TT re http://www.elliott-wave-software.nl/

Very interesting piece of software - do you have it?

If so, does it handle FX? Looks like it would need a data feed - eSignal perhaps?

For an old hand who hasn't done hands-on EW, could be the 'holy grail'

grateful for any assistance/comments you may have

Xerof

on reflection I guess EOD data would be OK for doing EW, dumped into Excel - I know there are good sites that offer free EOD data

arco
29-04-2005, 07:24 AM
Morning Xerof

No I don't have that software.

My E-Waving is limited to the basics.
Mostly the e-wavers cant agree, so
I use my own modified/basic version.
Lets call them arco-waves - LOL.

Maybe perhaps do a search on Elite
to see if there are any comments re the program there.

Also there used to be a free EW programe obtainable
from AlphaOmega....check Google or Elite again
if interested.

Hope thast helps

arco

arco
29-04-2005, 07:47 AM
Xerof

I have found the link.........

http://alphomegaew.com/

Let me know how you get on with the
findings on the other program.


TIA
arco

slam
29-04-2005, 12:37 PM
Any one trade EUR/AUS ?
Just went long off resistance

Cheers
Slam

arco
29-04-2005, 02:02 PM
Slam

I have traded EUR.AUD in the past, but
prefer to stick with the mainstream
pairs unless I see the ultimate set-up.

Check one such event here for 321 pips .........

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/viewtopic.php?t=1564

Xerof
05-05-2005, 11:22 AM
Guys,

I have been playing around with some indicators, to use as signals for trade entries. The following combination has given some nice timely entries when I back test - admittedly very limited backtesting but I currently have a potential sell EUR/USD signal coming up. I won't trade it, instead will see if it pans out.

I'm using 2 hourly chart with default MACD, default DPO, and EMA's 10,20. Also Bollinger bands, just to give an indication of which end of the range its sitting at.

MACD is about to cross lower from above signal line, DPO is heading towards zero but EMA's still have a way to go.

Backtesting seems to indicate best combo is when MACD and DPO give signal simultaneously, then EMA's confirm 2 or 3 bars later.

Will see what happens later today, if indeed these two early indicators set up as a confirming combo (stress: DPO is not at zero just yet)

I'll update with a 'demo' trade perhaps....

USD/CHF is indicating same setup for a buy USD...

Xerof

arco
05-05-2005, 11:46 AM
Hello Xerof

Some of these indicators may work OK if you are
prepared to watch the screen all day long.

I personally find MA's lag and whip too much to be of
use in short time frames, - unless the trend is
very strong. Divergences can be more useful IMO.

MA's may work better for longer term trading.
i.e Van Tharp's crossover or Guppy's MMA.
Bunny Girl seems to do OK with Bunny Cross MA's,
but I think that may be on indicies only.

MacD.....there are many varieties of this and
I do occasionally check them on the daily chart,
but not in real time.

Anyway, very interested to hear how you go with
these experiments.

arco

Xerof
05-05-2005, 12:26 PM
Notionally just bought USD/CHF at say 1.1927. Will run a notional stop at 1.1897

EUR/USD still not quite giving combo signal

1.55 pm
Hmmm, first trap - DPO must recalculate constantly - it now shows it DIDN'T cross zero at all !, same with MACD - no cross !

Lesson: perhaps wait one bar before entering

On the same basis using 1 hour charts, these two pairs confirmed some hours ago, buy USD/CHF, sell EUR/USD.

1 hr charts just signalled a sell in GBP and NZD, but 2 hr charts still not there

2.05pm

Well, if I'm to stick to this little experiment, just signalled on 2 hr chart to sell EUR at say 1.2933, S/L 1.2963

So now set and will forget for a couple of hours

Thinking aloud here guys - maybe a technique to apply would be to fade into trades, firstly using 1 hr, then adding if 2 hr confirms, then 4 hr etc etc, with a trailing S/L

if it turns to custard, only take a loss on first entry, if it runs as expected, you're adding to a good trade each time. Any thoughts?

Understand what you're saying Arco - does need screen watching, but would only need to focus if the combo signals are closing in on target areas - still time to mow the lawns or anything else that may tickle your fancy:D:D

arco
05-05-2005, 02:53 PM
Xerof

I usually watch the gardener mowing the lawns
while someone else tickles my fancy....:D

OK back to the serious business of TA..........

....remove all indicators and false moustache...
add trendline/s.........perhaps works just as well,
maybe even better.

arco

Xerof
05-05-2005, 03:15 PM
Hehe, thought you might say that Arco:D:D

Well, chose the wrong day to give this a go - it's like watching paint dry today and of course the indicators flatlining now. I might persevere with this in private and report success or failure later on in the month.

www.fxwintrades.comuse MACD on 15 minute charts with good success (they obviously have a modelling program that seeks best-fit MACD numbers too, as they continually update these)

As I've mentioned before I'm not that flash on TA, so just experimenting in order to try to find the "holy grail" - I'm the black one:D:D

http://www.mwscomp.com/movies/grail/jpgs/bknight3.jpg

Xerof
05-05-2005, 05:38 PM
We'll call it quits then - no damage done except to pride, ego, confidence....etc etc

BUT will monitor this little theory over the coming days/weeks

Xerof

and I've just clicked as to what the false moustache is:D:D

arco
06-05-2005, 08:53 AM
Thank you Xerof

That photo of you is a very good likeness, and was obviously
taken just after you left the pub and were still legless.
No need to worry about what others say, it just shows
you were only having a bit of armless fun. ;)

arco

Xerof
06-05-2005, 10:07 AM
Droll, Arco, very droll, but must admit having some good laughs this week.

I'm sure you probably trade the precious metals Arco, so you might be interested in this chart from Stormy, with trend lines (and indicators););)

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=13618

He also posted this EUR chart yesterday, which may be of interest - IMO now needs 1.2975/80 to cap - non-farm payrolls to determine whether we see a breakout.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=13570

regards

Xerof

arco
06-05-2005, 10:38 AM
Xerof

Thanks for the links.
Yes, I have traded Gold and other commodities over the years.
Check out a nice Butterfly on Gold here...........
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=14865&whichpage=39

Just another true story for you.

On Monday morning I went for a blood test.
I was sitting calmly sweating with my wrist clenched and
eyes tightly closed when the nurse said "just a little prick".

I thought to myself.......how the hell does she know?

arco

Xerof
06-05-2005, 11:18 AM
A nice flutter indeed

Similar true story:

I had all 4 wisdom teeth extracted some years ago, under GA. When I awoke, I noticed my fly was undone. I quizically looked at the (delightful) nurse, who burst out laughing and said " I'm afraid not Mr [xerof], we give you a shot in the backside to bring you around"

cheers


Xerof

peat
06-05-2005, 12:35 PM
whos staying up for the NFP tonite?

Xerof
06-05-2005, 12:44 PM
Well you have to don't you, even if its to marvel at the volatility, which we don't often see here in Australasian/Asian timezone.

So, yes, me, although......meeting a few mates at the pub tonight....may stay to watch the rugby....may not be awake by 12.30.....


Xerof

Xerof
09-05-2005, 04:44 PM
Well, whilst my little experimental indicator theories didn't pan out exactly as planned, (both notional trades were stopped out within a few pips of the low and high), as a directional play they were both fantastic.

Within 12 hours, these trades were between 100 and 130 pips in profit.

Some fine tuning is required to try and refine it, either a smaller trade initially, with wider stop loss, or using same signals on 3 or 4 hour charts to confirm the 2 hr 'alerts'.

I'm not giving up on this easily !! work in progress as they say....

Xerof

Note there is no indication of any sort of turn around at this stage, so would still be holding short EUR/USD and long USD/CHF.

arco
09-05-2005, 09:25 PM
The losing route.........[V]

http://shortcut-to-forex-success.50megs.com/index.html

The winning route........:)

All serial losers have to do is just reverse
their decision on every trade they make.

[8D]

peat
09-05-2005, 10:18 PM
lol arco

guess theres a lot of truth in that.....
i certainly have not given up my day job yet.

Xerof
09-05-2005, 10:25 PM
Damn, one less suckerfish in the pool.

Is that all there is to his website? I was looking for more !!

Footnote: I don't intend to market my 'ahem....successful' technique in an e-book - ITS FOR FREE:D:D

Xerof

Xerof
09-05-2005, 10:26 PM
Note : all three of us are still screen watching at 11.30 pm - go to bed !!

peat
09-05-2005, 10:44 PM
cant go to sleep
NY is just starting!

Xerof
13-05-2005, 08:39 AM
Well Guys (do we have any ladies tuning in?)

Today is Black Friday, and by the look of it we are all in the black with diamonds at this stage:D:D

This looks to me like a trending market at last, and we might have only seen the beginning over the course of this week

Hang for the ride I say[^][^]

Xerof

peat
13-05-2005, 09:00 AM
yes maybe i closed out to soon this morning, as I said keen to take profits - but doesnt mean I cant catch the train again tonite. :D

Xerof
13-05-2005, 09:18 AM
Peat, there will always be counter-trend rallies to sell into, as traders will take profits. A Friday without major US data is normally quiet, with a little backtracking probable after the weeks move, but not sure tonight is going to follow that pattern - everything is at crossroads for a major breakout. Plenty of downside stops to gun for in EUR etc[8D][8D]

BTW, you'll suffer from burn-out if you keep those hours up - a post on the threads at 2.30 am?[xx(][xx(] I do admit tho, I have stayed up for the data releases this week, but the big moves are all over within 30 minutes, so 1am is my limit

Set your trades, set your stops and get your beauty sleep;);)


Cheers
Xerof

peat
13-05-2005, 09:23 AM
cheers for your concern about my beauty Xerof :D
i dont start the day job till 9:30 so I sleep in till 8:30 :) Dont need as much sleep as some peeps either must be all the P I smoke j/k

slam
13-05-2005, 09:31 AM
Hi All
Well a good night for everyone by the look of it.
Now comes the hard part, when to exit.
A few have done more than I thought already so time for a rethink.
As you say Xerof, Things are afoot;)

Trade well
Cheers Slam

Xerof
13-05-2005, 10:08 AM
Slam, I read somewhere that markets trend only 20% of the time, so when they are trending (and I hold the view we have just started a new trend, but next weeks action will be more informative on that front I think) you just close your eyes and let it run.

The tricky part is where to leave trailing stops, as there will always be counter-trend moves. Some will trade the waves, in/out/in/out/in etc, (FX copulation), risking squaring up, or even going counter-trend, and seeing it continue in the trend direction, some will ignore the swings and just leave it.

Its a personal trading choice IMO, my choice when trending is to lower stops to levels above 50% of first move, initially, and let it run. As I say, trending markets are quite infrequent, so need to make the most of them when they arrive.

I have found in the past that temptation to take a profit often leads to no re-entry, especially if the rate moves further in the same direction, (the hardest action is to sell a low or buy a high) and you're left watching it without a position.

You'll note I sold NZD at lows twice yesterday, and both are looking good now. Believe me it's not easy to do.

One other thing to watch, and we see it most often in USD/JPY, is everyone will say its grossly overbought/sold, and must correct, but in a trending market, it simply doesn't - it just runs on speed for weeks on end. You'll also see it in Kiwi - just look at the weekly chart and see the continuous up or downmoves, that have almost no significant corrections. Sept03 to Jan04 is a good example

So if indeed we are entering a new uptrend for USD, get it on and leave it IMO

To answer your question
quote:Now comes the hard part, when to exit- DON'T

Xerof
13-05-2005, 12:13 PM
Asian open - looks like they are now sellers, having been buyers for the last few weeks - the buying was probably related to the large Uridashi issue for NZD752 mill formally announced last night, but informally known about for some time. Chinese banks were noted as sellers up at 7325/35 a couple of days ago as well, likely to be after the Uridashi order completed.

Xerof

peat
13-05-2005, 03:08 PM
Beer o'clock mmmmmmmm
and the Euro's still at the same level i bought back at this morning :D
tipsy trading tonite
oops [:o)]

arco
13-05-2005, 03:26 PM
Explains uridashi issue..........

Looming eurokiwi/uridashi crunch risk to NZD - RBNZ

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050309/20/3nol.html

slam
13-05-2005, 04:24 PM
Well, I don't know if this week has done me any good or not.
Equity up 62%, 598 pips sitting there, all sounds good but, my first few weeks trading the ASX were a few years ago when it was trending up. Didn't mater what I brought it all worked and looked easy[:I]
Learnt a lesson or 2 there. We shell see what next week brings.
Thanks for all the pointers and help arco and Xerof

Have a good weekend all. (for those signing off)
Might join you for that beer pete

and "Go The Crusaders ;)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
13-05-2005, 04:25 PM
The 'issue' of Eurokiwi's and uridashi's at this time of the currency cycle is quite interesting - (they are done to raise cheap funding in the issuers home currency by issuing bonds in NZD then doing cross currency interest rate swaps into their currency of choice).

The issuer has no currency risk - this is borne by the retail purchasers of the bonds, (who are usually very high credit rated names, usually AAA or AAA+).

These retail purchasers are typically immune to/ unaware of currency risk, or don't care, and are only chasing top credit investments with a high yield. But over the past 20 years, we have seen two major 'clusters' of issuances, both Eurokiwi and more recently, uridashi, and interestingly, both surges in issuance have come when the NZD has been closing in on cyclical highs (of course its the high interest rates that attract attention from retail investors, which in turn drives the issuers to issue)

What happened last cycle was once our rates started to fall, followed by the currency, issuance dried up, as no one wants to issue in a low interest environment, especially one with a falling currency !

Then a year or two or three later, all the issues came up for redemption, pressuring NZD even further,

Deja Vu...

I think we are once again at the climatic peak of issuance, which has coincided with a peak in interest rates and currency, to be followed by the maturities hitting the market at the very time our interest rates will be/are falling relative to others, esp USD, and the currency is declining.

Once again, the retail investors will take a bath on currency risk.

The cycle seems to come around every 8 to 10 years - perhaps they all have relatively short memories....

lubbly jubbly stuff


BTW, what I meant by my comments a couple of posts ago is that the uridashi arranger will always buy the currency just prior to the issue, ideally forcing the rate higher, then its all sold to the retail customers, leaving the arranger with not only lots of fees for arranging the issuance, but also a nice profit out of the currency side of it too.

So in the past week the strong buying of NZD has been related to the 752mill issue announced last night (IMO)


Xerof

Xerof
14-05-2005, 07:52 AM
Guys,


Looks like we've bagged a few baby elephants this week guys. Next week we'll go after the 'bull' elephants and try to bag them [^][^]


Pleasant weekend to all

Xerof

arco
14-05-2005, 09:17 AM
Good Morning All

Yes, I might even be able to assist with the US debt
if I cash up now :D

Lots of calcs to do now to see where/when we might get a
swing, and to try to take advantage of that if possible.

Good weekend all

arco

Xerof
16-05-2005, 08:33 AM
Decidedly quiet out there in Forexland this morning. Which camp is going to make the first move?

My initial view is that some USD longs may be tempted to take profits, but seems to me rallies should be very limited - I think we have seen a significant breakout of the ranges, and will see this continue.

Perhaps GBP rallies back to 1.86, Eur to 1.2730, Chf to 1.2160. Not so sure about commodity bloc - to me they look to be in a spot of bother - CRB index falling away now, which will also keep USD bid, so IMO only limited rallies for NZD, AUD and CAD

Xerof

arco
16-05-2005, 09:09 AM
Good morning Xerof

Just another Manic Monday ;)

I have closed all short term a/c positions awaiting
the market direction. Hard to decide which way they
will jump in the short term. Medium term still down IMO.

Auto orders are placed below recent low/high, and
will trail them if they retrace.

arco

Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:30 AM
Good for you Arco, so there's a big buyer of NZD this morning as he repatriates his profits;);)

I'm tempted too, have already closed USD/CHF, but waiting for Asia open to see early action on dollar bloc, as not seeing wave 5 completion just yet. Have tightened stops on NZD and CAD, but looking for that extra mint wafer, Mr C:D:D

Xerof

slam
16-05-2005, 09:33 AM
I have just tightened stops on all 4 shorts to the last run down on the 30min chart.will keep moving stops as day goes. If they break the 30min chart trend for the last 3 days, Im out.
Not keen to sell yet.[8)]

Cheers
Slam

PS Shorts NZD/EUR/GBP/AUD all against the USD.

GBPNZDBASISTRADER
17-05-2005, 02:05 AM
Hi Xerof..
I thought i better say something here as your quote below is quite mis-leading;


quote:Originally posted by Xerof


BTW, what I meant by my comments a couple of posts ago is that the uridashi arranger will always buy the currency just prior to the issue, ideally forcing the rate higher, then its all sold to the retail customers, leaving the arranger with not only lots of fees for arranging the issuance, but also a nice profit out of the currency side of it too.

So in the past week the strong buying of NZD has been related to the 752mill issue announced last night (IMO)


Xerof


I am a IR derivatives trader for an offshore bank, and I am involved in these deals everyday. As the arrangers of these deals we do not enter into the market to buy ccy, nor do the issuer. If we had to enter into the market to buy (like the $752mio as you have inferred Daiwa Securities have) we would be so busy doing that than anything else. We will have FX exposure on back of the basis swaps but not a huge amount. Sure, the buying can come into the ccy as the retail investor purchases the currency to buy the issue, but I think what you will find is that more times than not the issue is never fully pre-sold day one. This particular arranger in this issue is often happy to take down these bonds from the issuer (EBRD) and then on-sell them over time thru their retail network. They would not carry the spot exposure over the time they took to sell down the bonds - and would need to be selling to those who do not already have NZD assets and need those investors to buy the ccy to take them out of their position - at the historic rate they may have bought the currency at (or better). Then there are the redemptions that happen and often these get re-invested back into the same ccy so thus no fx txn's required at all.
If you look at the issuance that occurs globally on a daily basis, there is no way an arranger is buying the same face value of currency that the deal is in.. he'd be running some seriously long positions !! It is not a viable tactic for the bank to be doing.

Your overview on the issuance process though was pretty good!!
Though we are probably not at the climatic peak of issuance - as don't forget there are still countries needing to be run and debt profiles maintained... but, it has been a pretty stellar start to the calendar year issuance wise so it might just go quieter at the moment with the non-big dollar currencies feeling a bit of heat, and the street not too keen on buying assets after the recent rally in US interest rates... (and not to mention a few downgrades in the credit sector!).

regards

Dazza
17-05-2005, 07:21 AM
hey i have been checking EW theory

how do u use it to trade?

all i can see, is using it to short really?

ie, u have points 12345 set, and also A and B

u predict where C should be... n provided other indicators also indicate it to be short...

then u short

am i correct? is this how u use EW?

how would u use EW to long a trade?

Xerof
17-05-2005, 09:05 AM
GBPNZDBASISTRADER,

I may have been a little 'colourful' but regrettably not totally misleading. I too have experience in these issues, during the first major issuance/maturity cycle of Eurokiwi, and maybe things have changed, but I doubt it.

I accept what you say regarding this particular issuer, and the volume they may buy prior, but of course that doesn't really matter, as you have all the other punters out there willing to position themselves (frontrun) the announcement or issue.

Please don't be so naive to expect an ex-IB trader to believe that these up-coming issues aren't leaked, then pumped to blazes, maybe not by the arranger or issuer, but certainly by the punters with an interest to make money off the back of it

As I say things may have changed, but in my day, I could ask my spot trader and also every prop trader in the room how they were placed in Kiwi around the time of large issuances, and doubtless you know the answer.

Thanks for the response anyway - refreshing to have some discussion slightly off the topic of what to sell or buy

Xerof

miner
17-05-2005, 09:48 AM
Getting a head start on a move,eg,USD/CHF and USD/JPY go the same way EUR/USD opp way(most of the time,when they don't = dodgy,and JPY often leads which way the next move will be),easy enough you say,mentioned tho as they confirm each other(as in not sure which way one is going,the other 2 tell you) and also 1 or 2 can move before the other enabling you to jump on before it moves.

This morning EUR/USD went south just before USD/JPY went north,so miss EUR but jump on JPY.

Anyway wet day here so back watching FX and just though would chuck a few thoughts in to the mix.

Cheers
Miner

slam
17-05-2005, 10:07 AM
hi miner
good to see you with the tea leafs out again;)
yes, on this forum now[:I]
can't resist

have a good one
Cheers
Slam

miner
17-05-2005, 10:22 AM
Hi Slam you sound like your doing ok[8D],choice,lots more tea leafs where those came from hehe[:0],you know me;), FX messy at the mo tho so just watching,times for FX,as in when to watch for entry is something you could be looking at also.

"yes, on this forum now",less to watch and allways trades ay mate[8D].

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
17-05-2005, 10:25 AM
Dazza,


turn your chart upside down:D:D

There is plenty of info out there which can explain it far better than trying to do it on this thread - scan through the threads and you'll find plenty of tips/referrals to sites and books on the subject

cheers mate

Xerof

slam
17-05-2005, 10:30 AM
miner
halled up some charts on what you were saying
nice little tool;)
cheers
slam

miner
17-05-2005, 10:31 AM
Slam Re above,not a good example but look at 5 min on those 3 on last hourly,both EUR and CHF moved before JPY.

Cheers
Miner

slam
17-05-2005, 10:34 AM
spotted that

miner
17-05-2005, 10:38 AM
And now JPY looks the best on 5 min so may lead the way?,or I just cursed it hehe,it's one way of getting on a move before it goes tho,only seconds in it sometimes tho.

Cheers
Miner

miner
17-05-2005, 10:57 AM
Slam NOT a good example but jpy went south eur north same time and chf just sat there(lots of time to jump on) then it followed eur,5 min charts.

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
17-05-2005, 10:59 AM
Miner,

Yes the correlations are usually quite strong on those currencies, but if I may offer a tip - always keep an eye on the chart for EUR/JPY to see if there's anything there to indicate major moves.

The fact is this cross is the most heavily traded pair on a global basis, if I remember correctly, by quite a significant margin too, and the reality is that moves in EUR/USD and USD/JPY are more often than not mere puppets dancing to the EUR/JPY tune.

Good example as recently as last night, EUR/USD around 1.2630/40 area basically all of NY, but USD/JPY fell 70 odd pips, and surprise surprise, it was EUR/JPY selling, with incidentally, all the pressure felt by the USD/JPY. Ordinarily, with a big sell on USD/JPY, the EUR/USD would be going up?......not last night because of the offering interest in EUR/JPY

Obviously EUR stayed bid for other reasons, probably the poor TIC data, which adds another complication - if you saw USD/JPY being hammered, you'd think EUR/USD should go up yeah? Well last night it stayed pretty flat, even slightly lower, so not always an obvious signal, and you can be fairly certain it did that because the weak link last night was the USD, and the game on at the time was EUR/JPY.

Hope this doesn't put you off mate, just trying to point out that it often ain't as easy as it looks.

The other glaring example yesterday was EUR/GBP, GBP getting slaughtered, while EUR remained very stable, but the EUR/GBP cross was where all the activity came from, and you would have no joy trying to sell EUR/USD - it remained 1.2590/1.2640 while GBP traded down 250 pips

Sori I'm prattling on now - leave it at that

cheers

Xerof

slam
17-05-2005, 11:04 AM
Just did it then, USA/JPY- then EUR/USD- then USA/CHF+

slam
17-05-2005, 11:12 AM
miner
got it that time
gotta stop looking at the ticks;)

Xerof
17-05-2005, 11:12 AM
Ah, you guys are jobbing the 5 min charts - well my previous comments probably don't apply to v short term trades but might explain why you find your technique doesn't work all the time miner

miner
17-05-2005, 11:20 AM
Not a prob Xerof thanks for that will have a look,might need yet another screen tho(might jam a 5 min chart for eur/jpy on a screen),what have said is not foolproof but when it works it works well,as for put off not me hehe,played before just been busy with other stuff.

Prattle away I'm good at that too.

Slam can my last post mind not on the job enough,should have been jpy and chf not going same way so someone is wrong(jpy often shows the way tho) so dodgy hence my messy coments.

Cheers
Miner

miner
17-05-2005, 11:29 AM
Xerof I run daily 1 hour 15 min and 5 min charts for each of the 3 pairs,screen for each,and also look at times(as in say coming up to hourly) with mentioned method.

And yep mainly for trading but can stay in depends how trade goes.

Not trading at mo and wet day so just thought chuck some thoughts around.

Cheers
Miner

miner
17-05-2005, 11:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam

miner
got it that time
gotta stop looking at the ticks;)


Been there done that,you got it watch the chart not how many pips you are making or loosing on your trading station.

Cheers
Miner

miner
17-05-2005, 11:38 AM
Xerof just looked at eur/jpy,mirror image of usd/jpy,ta for that will jam it in on a screen.

Cheers
Miner

miner
17-05-2005, 12:45 PM
Slam as I'm having a prattle day[:o)] something else I do is watch the change of the daily and then the hourly(+ - 5 mins) as they can be good times to enter a trade.

Cheers
Miner

slam
17-05-2005, 12:53 PM
prattle away miner:)
I use Daily, hourly and min

quote:the hourly(+ - 5 mins)
??

miner
17-05-2005, 01:09 PM
Watch the 5 min before the hourly as they often run into the hourly and sometimes turn just after(hard to explain on a keyboard),eur/usd and usd/chf both gave a good entry on the daily(hindsight now I now but worth watching) jpy did a bit of a run into this hour,depends on other charts supp,ress etc as to what to do,but as say worth watching to suss if nothing else.

And Xerof's eur/jpy ran into the hour,so a quick few pips if you want.

Also when you get a bigish 15min candle like we did on eur/jpy and usd/jpy like we did today look to go other way off it(as fast so easy to miss,then you dont want to get on the wrong boat) more so when eur and chf didnt do it.

Obviously not that simple but some things to look for maybe.

Xerof
17-05-2005, 05:10 PM
MIGHT be too early to call but I reckon that little burst of USD selling, buying of EUR,CHF, GBP etc was a 'failed rally' and we head south now

slam
17-05-2005, 05:30 PM
I'm getting mixed signals, charts/candles all a bit of a mess, but I tend to agree.
Here goes another late night watching and waiting for some confirmation[|)]

Slam

miner
17-05-2005, 05:40 PM
A messy day wait for pairs to play the game ie usd/chf and usd/jpy one way eur/usd other etc,not a good day for examples slam but see eur/usd had a wee run into the last 2 hourlys,on a good day can be an ok way to make a few pips.

Xerof maybe see if eur/usd goes below 580 ish?.


Cheers
Miner

slam
17-05-2005, 05:41 PM
On 1 hour charts, Bearish signals
NZD - Harami Cross
GBP - Evening Doji Star
AUD - Harami

Not perfectly formed, but close enough to make me take notice.

miner
17-05-2005, 05:45 PM
How many pairs do you watch slam?.

Xerof
17-05-2005, 05:47 PM
Well mate, light those nice long upper shadow wicks on the hourly candles, right across the board - hehe

slam
17-05-2005, 05:49 PM
miner
just had a look, see what you mean on the hourly.

miner
17-05-2005, 05:53 PM
Slam on a good night they can do 30+ pips on the last 5-10 min run into the hour,so like say worth keeping in mind for one way to skin the cat hehe.

Xerof
17-05-2005, 05:55 PM
WOW, reasonable moves already on NZD, AUD,and GBP. Just waiting for EUR and CHF to get going......

not a bad early call eh guys?

miner
17-05-2005, 05:56 PM
You da man:D[8D]

slam
17-05-2005, 06:11 PM
a few lines to break, but reversal patterns broken on most. EUR may take a bit longer imo. was the first to break the downward trend.

miner
17-05-2005, 06:13 PM
Coffee made CD on see how we go,was going to get some beauty sleep tonight(not that I need it[8)] ) all your fault slam hehe;).

miner
17-05-2005, 06:15 PM
Not saying anyone is wrong but tend to try and not get long or short thoughts in my head just watch and charts will tell you which way to go.

slam
17-05-2005, 06:20 PM
sorry miner:D
USD/CHF and EUR/USD mirror image one the end of a 5min chart now

bout the coffee ;)

miner
17-05-2005, 06:27 PM
Sideways sh#te at the mo mate so sit on hands and wait for one to make a move,what pairs you watching tonight?.

I find when eur/usd one way usd/jpy and usd/chf other way(doing what they should) it's a lot easier and safer to play.

slam
17-05-2005, 06:31 PM
watching nzd/usd, aud/usd, eurusd, gbp/usd.
usa/jpy, usa/chf.
(gotta love those 4 screens;))

miner
17-05-2005, 06:33 PM
Half an hour to the poms come on may get things going??.

miner
17-05-2005, 06:37 PM
Need a few more eyes tho mate,and people think iv'e been well you know when say going blind from the screens;).

I just watch eur/usd usd/chf and usd/jpy,watch same all the time get to know them theory,and now thanks to Xerof eur/jpy for a signal one.

miner
17-05-2005, 06:48 PM
You got this slam?
http://aboutforex.com/clocks.html

slam
17-05-2005, 06:49 PM
Have now:D
Thanks miner

miner
17-05-2005, 06:52 PM
chf leading into hour so far

miner
17-05-2005, 07:36 PM
My 3 may test days high lows,and double top-bottom?.

slam
17-05-2005, 07:39 PM
looking that way

slam
17-05-2005, 07:41 PM
mine may test my patiance[V]

slam
17-05-2005, 08:22 PM
well still very mixed so I'll sit this out for a while I think
Good luck all
Cheers
Slam

miner
17-05-2005, 08:28 PM
Yep trade was long eur/usd (or short other 2) on the last hourly to busy doing other stuff tho,see on finnish of last hourly chf and more so jpy had more to go to hit days low so eur went thru it's high,way I look at it anyway,blah blah blah;).

arco
17-05-2005, 10:31 PM
Good to see you back participating on the forum Miner.

Regards

arco

miner
18-05-2005, 07:02 AM
Ta Arco thought you boys could do with a few tea leaf tips;),first day-night watching for months so a bit rough,but going to start getting back into it.

Watch the daily slam;).

Cheers
Miner

slam
18-05-2005, 07:22 AM
miner
will do:)

slam
18-05-2005, 07:27 AM
btw, hope you got some beauty sleep and haven't been screen watching all night miner:D

miner
18-05-2005, 07:32 AM
Got CBF after missing that move(the one good move theory)so did a few things in the shed and hit the hay,busy today but will keep half an eye on things,daily can be good,often to go other way after US closes with a rush,doesn't always do it but worth a watch.

Cheers
Miner

miner
18-05-2005, 11:26 AM
Daily did a Murphy today slam,see what it does tomorrow.

slam
18-05-2005, 11:30 AM
bloddy murphy ah;)

miner
18-05-2005, 12:28 PM
usd/jpy may be about to lead the way?,tho eur/usd going north too so someone is wrong.

Xerof
18-05-2005, 12:32 PM
miner, look at eur/jpy chart mate, buying eur/jpy, so both going same direction

Dazza
18-05-2005, 12:36 PM
anyone know of any sites that can give me the exchange rate?

i seem to cant access my IG market account at uni :(

Xerof
18-05-2005, 12:39 PM
www.fxstreet.com

miner
18-05-2005, 12:40 PM
Ta Xerof just did,nice run,so it uo eur/usd down usualy?,if usd/jpy goes thru the high looking to short eur/usd

miner
18-05-2005, 12:50 PM
eur/jpy close to ress?

Xerof
18-05-2005, 12:57 PM
thats how I would see it, but depends on whats happening with other crosses as well, so it can be a minefield

eur/jpy toppish - hmmm maybe...I reckon short eur/jpy is a no brainer with china situation, but of course so has everyone else and weak shorts getting squeezed constantly, as we're seeing right now.

Harry Hindsight would have sold at 140.00 and stuck it in the bottom drawer, for 130 or lower[8D][8D]

miner
18-05-2005, 01:02 PM
Ta mate got to suss eur/jpy a bit more,new one for me,eur/usd spinny top on hour close(5min) hmm

Xerof
18-05-2005, 01:11 PM
sure, but if the main flow of the day is buying eur/jpy, which it looks like it might have been, demand is for buy eur/usd AND buy usd/jpy, so we've seen both go up.

BUT eur/usd side seems to have more offering liquidity, hence usd/jpy has been the one to pop.

To me this infers USD has an underlying bid tone.

this view partially confirmed by gbp/usd selling pressure

miner
18-05-2005, 01:17 PM
Ok ta interesting your eur/usd and usd/jpy both up,I usualy look for them to go opp and usd/chf same as jpy opp to eur,my 3 all around supp or ress,see if supp becomes ress and ress supp.

On daily mainly.

Xerof
18-05-2005, 01:22 PM
Yep, absolutely nothing wrong with your techniques, I'm just pointing out why it may not work sometimes - being when eur/jpy is the main event (with high volatility)

cheers

Xerof

miner
18-05-2005, 01:31 PM
Not a prob at all thanks for the info,explains why they dont do what they should sometimes,will now look at eur/jpy when they dont,for me anyway when my 3 play the game there a lot safer and easier to play.

At the mo they are trying to make up there minds as which way to go so sit on your hands time,no rush,around 6pm our time they may make a move(early pom's come on)or not and will look like a twit,O-well.

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
18-05-2005, 01:55 PM
Yeah unfortunately its fairly tedious in our time zone, apart from the odd news generated pandemonium in illiquid markets.

I try not to get too involved in 'daytrade' 'jobbing', call it what you will, but sometimes just can't resist the odd 20/30 pipper
if I happen to have a 'screen moment'


Xerof

slam
18-05-2005, 02:01 PM
Thought I'd better take a look at the ASX and bugger me, made a dollar today on a profit upgrade:D
Forgotten about it[:I]

Xerof
18-05-2005, 02:03 PM
Arco, if you're around today,

seems 50/50 each way on most pairs right now. Might be prudent to perhaps trade breaks on trailing entries.

Seeing anything? - C legs of gartleys, butterflies etc?

Still a little disturbed by GWD's dollar index chart on TT - it has reduced my confidence in a continuation of recent trends.....

cheers

Xerof

miner
18-05-2005, 02:05 PM
What I usualy do in the day is watch 10 min before and after the hourly,6pm on can be worth a watch,and like you did today about 6am for the run into the end of the US day,have seen usd/jpy trend one way after the daily until 5-6ish tho 80+ pips,depends on the day.

arco
18-05-2005, 02:16 PM
Hi Xerof

Yes, its a hard one, - would you like
to try a Straddle? she said urgently. ;)

Double Bottom on NZD at the moment. Gann level at 7080
could be holding up southward progress, and which could
lead to the formation of EW 3-4 perhaps?

Many pairs are in regions where Gartleys or Butterflies
could possibly complete, so its a waiting game.

http://www.journeyofhearts.org/jofh/kirstimd/sidemon4.gif

arco

Xerof
18-05-2005, 03:57 PM
quote:Yes, its a hard one, - would you like
to try a Straddle? she said urgently.

quote:Double Bottom

Arco, where were you this morning - your weekly B&D session:D:D

Dazza
18-05-2005, 07:15 PM
ok i got a few questions
ddl the trial of visual trading :D

now just with the vocab and all i dun understand.

duration : GTC
what does that stand for?

entrystopbuy? what kind of order is that?

entrylimitbuy?

entrystopsell? etc etc?

sorry for the n00b questions :D

arco
18-05-2005, 08:00 PM
Dazza

You should find all you need here.........

http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/technicalanalysis/ordertypes.asp

arco

slam
19-05-2005, 05:42 AM
Hmmm
All Shorts gone Long

slam
19-05-2005, 06:58 AM
question is, will we see the same pullback we did yesterday. 5min charts looking a bit toppy on NZ, AU, EU and GB against the US. If uptrent is being established, may provid a nice entry around mid day for longs.
Just rambling:)
Cheers Slam

miner
19-05-2005, 08:49 AM
Nutters tend to ramble;)morning mate.

Cheers
Miner

slam
19-05-2005, 08:55 AM
morning miner;)
another rainy day where you are?
hope you didn't get too much last night.

still sitting watching most atm.
hands are getting numb from sitting on them though;)

Cheers
Slam

miner
19-05-2005, 12:37 PM
Murphy just killed my charts:(so time to mow the lawn,looked like eur/usd was doing what I thought before charts died,may channel tho,catch you later murphy permiting:(;).

Cheers
Miner

slam
19-05-2005, 01:06 PM
dailyfx power charts?
mine too:(:(
Flying blind with backup chart system
Hate it

miner
19-05-2005, 02:02 PM
Yep just going to see if back on,speaking of this slam keep an eye on your trading station sell-buy prices and what your chart says,as charts can freeze and say you made a coffee came back and didn't notice you end up looking at wrong charts.

Got caught out on this one day,sold straight away,first and last time got caught out tho.

Cheers
Pat

slam
19-05-2005, 02:09 PM
I'll keep the old third eye in it;)
btw charts not back yet[B)]

Slam

Xerof
20-05-2005, 03:44 PM
Have a good weekend everyone - the paints dry for today....doubt we'll see another coat applied tonight with no data due

Xerof

Xerof
21-05-2005, 12:08 AM
Take it back re another layer of paint - all hell breaking loose at NYK open - stop hunting below 1.2580 has pushed everything over the cliff for the moment - thin Fridays provide fertile ground for these moves

peat
21-05-2005, 12:12 AM
dammed shame my $/Y long got hunted by the nasty stop with at 107.40.
but yeh my two Euro shorts are enjoying the ride

Xerof
21-05-2005, 12:34 AM
I think this is a major breakdown in the making

Short GBP/USD from 1.8380, closed already at 1.8306 for +74
Long USD/CHF from 1.2210 - yippee, the dead low this morning
Long USD/CAD from 1.2575
and sold Kiwi at .7100 and .7088
tight trailing stops now on everything to lockup for weekend

Time to hit the zzzz - cu Peat

Xerof

slam
23-05-2005, 03:37 PM
quiet day today men:)

miner
23-05-2005, 03:40 PM
Grass grew 3mm:Dok short from murphy while was on the can this morning[V];).

slam
23-05-2005, 03:48 PM
afternoon miner
getting sore hands from sitting on them

slam
23-05-2005, 03:50 PM
was up in rototua on friday so missed all the action that night:(

miner
23-05-2005, 03:55 PM
Watched rugby on friday night:D,hands can get sore but best to wait for the trade,it will give one,have rushed it in the past and got nailed[xx(],I now wait for the happy trade;).

slam
23-05-2005, 04:04 PM
Rugby, watched some of it then had to go to gig. Boys did well:D
Just take out the aussies now;)
Might have to do the graveyard shift tonight to see what happens

miner
23-05-2005, 07:12 PM
@#$%^$%$#@$ power cuts:(

arco
24-05-2005, 11:55 AM
NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar was lower late Monday afternoon, as it gave
back a small potion of its recent sharp gain and currency markets reviewed
several political developments which could imperil the euro.
In recent trades the euro was up 0.2% at $1.2581, after earlier falling to
$1.2533, its weakest standing since October. The dollar was down 0.5% at 107.60
yen.
With no U.S. economic reports Monday, currency market players turned their
attention to events overseas.
The French daily Liberation Monday reported that 52% of French voters are
expected to reject the referendum on the European constitution to be held next
Sunday.
Currency markets also tracked reports from Holland indicating that an even
larger number of Dutch voters may reject a similar referendum on the
constitution on June 1.
The eurozone also was surprised by a call from Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder
for early general elections in Germany, following the defeat of his Social
Democratic Party in a key regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Italy too is in trouble with rising debt levels at a time when its
manufacturing sector is nearing a recession, according to Boris Schlossberg,
senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets.
Although some observers are asking whether the eurozone is on the verge of a
breakup, Schlossberg said some of the new developments could actually support
the union and the euro.
For instance, a defeat of the German Social Democratic Party "may be a
blessing in disguise as it could allow the more market-oriented opposition to
more easily implement structural reforms already started by Gerhard Schroeder,"
according to Schlossberg.
"Finally, with the euro fully 10 cents lower against the dollar since the
beginning of the year, the exact same dynamic that drove Italian industry into a
steep slowdown may provide it with some much needed competitive edge,"
Schlossberg said.
Lara Rhame, global currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, noted
that, although the new political and economic developments were euro-negative,
the euro itself was higher against the dollar Monday.
"There is a general long-term assessment of euro-zone politics, so you don't
have surprise intraday movement," Rhame. "It's more sort of long-term view of
the euro zone that the politics there are counterproductive for the euro."
David Solin, a partner in Foreign Exchange Analytics, predicted that the
euro could drop to $1.2450 overnight and said it should remain under pressure
for the rest of the month.
Focus on U.S. revised GDP
Later this week, investors will be watching revisions to first-quarter U.S.
gross domestic product data due out Thursday, for clues to the strength of the
U.S. economy.
Markets were spooked in late April when the preliminary estimate of GDP
showed the growth pace for the largest global economy slowing to 3.1% in the
first quarter from 3.8% in the fourth quarter.
However, a number of strong economic reports released in May have stoked
hopes for a strong upward revision in the GDP data. The MarketWatch forecast,
based on a poll of economists, is for an upward revision to 3.5% and other polls
indicate an even higher reading.
Japanese yen
Overnight the dollar drew support from remarks Monday made by Chinese Vice
Premier Wu Yi, who said the country has no timetable for lifting the dollar-peg
on its yuan and will not do so unless conditions are right.
"As for when we will conduct the yuan rate reform, there is no timetable,"
Wu told a forum in Tokyo. "If the conditions are right, we will conduct reform
voluntarily, even without pressure from foreign countries."
"If the conditions are not right, we will not carry out the reforms, no
matter how much pressure foreign countries exert," she said. "In a word, we will
abide by market rules, but we will not succumb to external pressure."

This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see
www.marketwatch.com.

slam
24-05-2005, 12:08 PM
cheers arco
interesting reading
slam

peat
24-05-2005, 05:15 PM
i'm actually finding thats its difficult to keep track of the profit/loss of my positions esp now that i am holding them for more than one day.
my platform rolls over my positions and sets my trade price to a new level. so i dont know where I stand anymore. kinda sux in my opinion. Seems so naff that I have to keep manual records.
(Of course I can run reports etc - but thats too much trouble)

miner
24-05-2005, 05:22 PM
Going to have to put an oven in my office;):(.

Xerof
24-05-2005, 05:55 PM
Miner, know the feeling, I'm considering meals on wheels

:D:D

Xerof

miner
24-05-2005, 06:10 PM
Usually try and eat something after 5 as 6 can be a good time to watch,Murphy made dinner tonight[V].

miner
24-05-2005, 08:02 PM
Xerof just set up your eur/jpy on a screen,see how goes with my other 3.

Xerof
25-05-2005, 08:15 AM
Peat, it won't be long before they'll pay us for being long USD - another hike or two, and Euroland rates will be lower than US, but agree - holding short GBP, AUD and NZD for too long does add up in terms of cost

Xerof
25-05-2005, 08:20 AM
Has anybody got or trialled Esignal for charts - they seem to have a very extensive tool-kit and some nice add-on packages from various 'experts'


TIA


Xerof

arco
25-05-2005, 08:34 AM
Morning Xerof

I havent tried ESignal, but I would
be interested to know how you get on if
you decide to test the package.

30 day free trial available here I believe.

www.esignal.com/offer/sc

arco

slam
25-05-2005, 10:27 AM
miner
you got a spare pair of those bottom picking gloves;)
mine are broken:(
all gone to custard for me this morning

slam

arco
25-05-2005, 10:36 AM
Bottom picking can be a very messy business [:0]

Keeping your eye open for a nice double top could
be a more interesting experience ;)

slam
25-05-2005, 10:45 AM
ah, but double tops, with age start to look like double bottoms[:0]

arco
25-05-2005, 11:50 AM
NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed against the euro on Tuesday as minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting early this month delivered mixed messages on U.S. inflation, baffling traders as to the currency's near-term direction.

In the minutes of its May 3rd meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed that there is a "discernible upcreep" in inflation measures recently, but FOMC members expected U.S pricing pressure to stay contained. Some members saw both the risks of inflation increasing and growth slowing, but the committee said overall risks were equally balanced.

The dollar fell against the euro immediately after the release of the Fed minutes, but it has since traded back up. In late afternoon trade, the euro was flat at $1.2583, but it rose as high as $1.2589 after the FOMC minutes.

"A bit of a mixed bag again. That's the usual story with the Fed minutes -- there's something in them for everyone," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

"The message appears to be that inflation is still contained, even if there are risks to the upside. From a yield perspective, the FOMC minutes looked pretty benign, but not too positive for the dollar," he added.

A generally benign inflationary outlook should ensure that the Fed would keep U.S. interest rate increases at a gradual pace. Slower interest rate hikes tend to diminish the allure of some dollar-denominated assets, especially short-term deposits.

Other analysts, however, viewed the Fed minutes as hawkish.

"There is no negativity in terms of what the economy is doing, with a more hawkish tone on inflation than usual, which is definitely interest rate positive," said Brian Taylor, chief dealer of foreign exchange trading, at Manufacturers and Traders Bank in Buffalo, New York. Continued ...

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=IP1OLV RYLXVU2CRBAEZSFEY?type=usDollarRpt

miner
25-05-2005, 11:54 AM
Gloves in the mail slam;),I like shorting more than long,as for double tops,usd/chf now on the hourly and 15min?.

Cheers
Miner

miner
25-05-2005, 01:02 PM
It gave a wee short slam,other one's played the game also.

arco
25-05-2005, 04:11 PM
What to believe ?

Sudden drop in dollar likely - OECD

The likelihood is increasing of a sudden drop in the value of the dollar, OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said yesterday.

http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/eng/news/breaking/?show=67856

miner
25-05-2005, 04:17 PM
Or just watch your charts?.

arco
25-05-2005, 05:24 PM
Miner

The fundamentalists can't agree so
fI find its always better for me to follow my
own TA and make decisions based on that.

arco

miner
25-05-2005, 05:46 PM
Yep best way to go mate an A1 guru chartist once told me that the charts tell you the story etc,I just use charts.

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
26-05-2005, 07:53 AM
Tedious chopping markets - without any resolution either way. May have to wait for next weeks line up of funnymentals. I squared up all positions during London session for modest +++ and will probably stay out now till after the weekends French vote



Xerof

miner
26-05-2005, 08:11 AM
A paint brush would have been more useful this morning than a mouse:([xx(]..

miner
26-05-2005, 08:26 AM
Stuff it going fishing,catch you chaps later.

arco
26-05-2005, 08:37 AM
Sounds like a good idea Miner......save
a few Gurnard (or Snapper) for me. TIA

---------------

Arco's Butterflies predict a nice move ;)

French President Jacques Chirac has made a televised appeal to sceptical voters not to reject the EU constitution in a referendum on 29 May.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4511043.stm

EU fears for future as French and Dutch threaten 'no' vote

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1584455,00.html

Xerof
26-05-2005, 09:09 AM
Arco,


quote:Arco's Butterflies predict a nice move

Would you like to display your collection?

I'm a bit lost in the wilderness but suspect I should have the net in hand and that
quote:Be brave when others are afraid might apply right now, in the form of breakout setups

TIA

Xerof

lakedaemonian
26-05-2005, 09:10 AM
It sounds like a good time to peruse my newly arrived Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets book while I'm sitting on the sidelines

[8D]

slam
26-05-2005, 09:18 AM
I'll stick my neck out and say GBP/USD:)
Picked up some more last night on the news drop
so up nicely anyway

Cheers
Slam

slam
26-05-2005, 09:24 AM
I'd also look hard at AUD and NZD against the USD (long)
There we go, my necks right on the block now:D

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
26-05-2005, 09:39 AM
Lakers,

Amazon.com must wonder whats going on in NZ - a sudden surge of orders for the same book - well.... 2 anyway, and I think Dazza was going to cough up for it too[^][^]

arco
26-05-2005, 09:58 AM
Xerof

Butterfly/Gartley-wise there are 3 long term
and short term targets all coming together in
a zone circa 8210-8335. (GBP.USD)
Thats where the action is currently playing, so it
weights heavily for a reversal northward.

Obviously nothing is totally perfect but a number of
other charts show similar patterns. Place your bets.....

arco

PS. Amazon, if you are reading this, you know my
address...........I'm expecting a nice gift :D

peat
26-05-2005, 10:05 AM
so this book is the shizz then????

if you're all recommending it - maybe I too can help the US with with its trade deficit a little (at the expense of NZ's of course)

Xerof
26-05-2005, 10:45 AM
Arco,

Guess what.... TRL now calling as per your original chart on EUR, same for various others;);)

you guru you:D:D

Xerof

arco
26-05-2005, 02:21 PM
Amazing............

Perhaps I should start a paid for service :D LOL

Xerof
26-05-2005, 04:00 PM
Just got back in - Hmmm - chopping again...

slam
26-05-2005, 04:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by slam

I'd also look hard at AUD and NZD against the USD (long)
There we go, my necks right on the block now:D

Cheers
Slam


Where is that axe[B)]

Xerof
26-05-2005, 05:04 PM
Well, seems everyone is having bother with the chop - TRL has reverted to original calls in european update....staying on sidelines for me

miner
27-05-2005, 05:50 AM
Well that would tear your nightie,twas a Murphy day as a tad windy to get to the good fishing spot,so had to park up and drink some booze:D(not all bad I hear you say?) and 100 odd pips on the daily(hope someone got some of it??),did get a few pany's so not all bad;).

Might get a bounce off the big daily's today tho?.

miner
27-05-2005, 06:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam


quote:Originally posted by slam

I'd also look hard at AUD and NZD against the USD (long)
There we go, my necks right on the block now:D

Cheers
Slam


Where is that axe[B)]


Morning Slam maybe work on when it is safe and not safe(ie messy)to enter a trade,takes patience but when it is messy I just sit on hands until it gives a safe entry(well safe for FX)gives safe entry's every day if you wait.

My 3 now are messy so will wait and watch,not trying to tell you what to do or be a know it all but thought might help,works for me.

Cheers
Miner

slam
27-05-2005, 07:53 AM
Morning miner
didn't hurt too much[:I]
was long from a few hours before i posted so just gave up the gains.

Gotta fly, off to Gisbourne today for another gig.
Might catch you from an airport, bit of downtime in well:)

Have a good one guys

Cheers
Slam

arco
27-05-2005, 08:03 AM
quote:Xerof - Well, seems everyone is having bother with the chop - TRL has reverted to original calls in european update....staying on sidelines for me

Blame the Frogs [V]

French opposition increases, euro falls

.....................The euro tumbled this morning in Asian trading after it was reported that Nicolas Sarkozy, head of French President Chirac’s ruling UMP party, told Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin that all hope of passing the referendum on the EU Constitution was lost. Although this was later denied by a spokesman for Mr. Sarkozy, it comes on the heels of a TNS-Sofres poll released today, which indicated increased opposition by the French public to the EU Constitution to 54% from 53%.

After digesting this latest political drama, the currency markets stabilized ahead of this morning’s important release regarding Q1 GDP in the US. The market largely expects growth in the US to be revised upwards to 3.7% from 3.1%. It is certainly possible that the markets have already factored in an increase in US GDP so a smaller than expected rise could prove bearish for the greenback. Conversely, a revision larger than anticipated could add further support to dollar bulls.

This morning also sees the release of US preliminary Personal Consumption figures and Weekly Initial US Jobless Claims. Apart from these fundamentals, the market will also be paying close attention to the numerous speeches today by Fed members. Ezechiel Copic

The action is still within the zone circa 8210-8335. (GBP.USD)
so lets wait and see. It would certainly be prudent to wait for
a reversal confirmation signal before taking the plunge.

Xerof
27-05-2005, 09:19 AM
Agreed.

I'm sitting on hands to watch developments - if this is the start of next downleg, there'll be plenty for everyone to participate in, even if the first 50 piparoonies are missed

but does look like a 'sell any rally scenario' coming into play

Xerof

miner
27-05-2005, 09:51 AM
Was tinking watch for a short at 530ish on eur/usd.

arco
27-05-2005, 11:49 AM
Swing trading often involves going against the
main trend, so that is a very important point
always to remember. You may sometimes be fighting
a losing battle. [V]
In the case of USD.GBP & EUR the main
trend is still DOWN. A simple trend line will
confirm that.

Longer term examples. One of my long term systems is
still short GBP from early May. The auto trailing
EOD stop is running behind showing a pip profit of
minimum +519 if taken out. Same system on GBP.JPY
giving +358 minimum from late April.

One can be a short term swing trader or a medium
to longer term holder. One is definately easier
than the other. :D

arco

Edit GBP to +519 med/long term traling stop system

miner
27-05-2005, 12:22 PM
Filleted the fish Arco so will chuck a couple in the mail for you;),nice trades on those medium-long one's also:D.

Cheers
Miner

arco
28-05-2005, 08:38 AM
Just another way of looking at the French situation...

If the French vote 'No' it could be construed as Sterling positive as a French 'Yes' would risk the UK becoming isolated on the issue of greater EU integration and a common currency

Maybe those Cabbage Whites could be right after all.

Miner.....watching the post ;)

peat
28-05-2005, 12:06 PM
even tho the trend is down i cant help but think that the risk is a bit on the upside for the Eur right at this moment - theres that vague possibility of a Yes vote and its moments like these its always good to show a healthy bit of contrariness. This type of issue could conceivably draw out a different type of conservatism on the actual day.
My position on Eur$ is still short tho.

arco
30-05-2005, 12:21 PM
Not sure when we hear re the French Oui/Non EU vote.

Going back a while when Irelands population voted
NO in their referendum on expanding the EU, the
government quickly held another Nationwide vote
and you can guess the outcome - YES was the answer.

Anyone smell a rat?

Could this scenario happen in France?

peat
30-05-2005, 02:16 PM
they've voted NON
the Eur dropped 60 pips on open but seems to have suprising resilience at about the 1.2525 level. Short covering perhaps and liquidity is very low so far today.

And from what I've the chance of a re-vote is slim to nil.

Next thing of consequence is the Dutchies to vote on same. Its looking like they will do the same as the Frogs. Personally I going with the idea that this is all negative for Eur and I continue to postion myself accordingly, but I cant help but wonder what actually changes. The EMU will remain for instance .....

peat
30-05-2005, 02:19 PM
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh2206 0_2005-05-30_02-31-38_l29416761_newsml

arco
30-05-2005, 02:27 PM
No major move in EUR so far,
with GBP showing a green Hammer at present.

_________________


Some suggest France could be made to vote again. But that seems unlikely in the remainder of Chirac’s current term. Until now, only Gen. Charles de Gaulle had lost a referendum since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Unlike the testy general, Chirac has said he won’t resign.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8029375/

peat
31-05-2005, 12:46 PM
markets moving quite strongly right now.

Xerof
31-05-2005, 01:03 PM
It don't mean a thing if you ain't got no swing - doo uap doo uap doo uap - nice remix by Gabin 2003


Gonna be tough to swing trade these markets when they're in this mood

Xerof

slam
31-05-2005, 01:20 PM
imo, just wait till they pass a resistance/support level, jump on and hold your breath, gotta watch like a hawk though
Cheers
Slam

peat
31-05-2005, 01:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof


Gonna be tough to swing trade these markets when they're in this mood
Xerof

dont know why people trade against the trend like that.....it just seems the hard way if u ask me.

Xerof
31-05-2005, 02:21 PM
Peat, probably because thats the way the market operates about 80% of the time - 20% trending, 80% swing, just have to adjust trading techniques when it trends - can't see any more than 50 to 80 pip retracements now for a while on most crosses.

As Arco says, catching a trend, once caught of course, is like taking candy.....tough bit is resisting taking profits when trending as you tend not to get back in as readily - I find hardest trade is selling a low or buying a high (when I've realised something is trending, not ranging)

Xerof

I think that 80/20 ratio is about right - read it somewhere....

arco
31-05-2005, 02:35 PM
I believe long term trading systems are much
easier to manage and less time consuming.
Its a roller coaster ride, but charts only
take say 30mins a day to monitor.

Develop a system and enter on the signal.
Once the trade is underway, trail a stop.
Only exit when the system indicates, not
on emotion.
Wait for the next signal. Enter,and repeat.

arco
01-06-2005, 12:08 PM
I received this today by e-mail just in case anyone is interested.
I havent personally seen Larry, so can't vouch for the info.

Dear Trader,

You may or may not be aware that Larry Williams is coming to Australia in June to present a series of seminars.

If you have either heard me talk or read my book Trading The SPI you will be aware that over the years I have attended just about every seminar there is on trading, including Larry’s Million Dollar Challenge (MDC) in 2000.

Well Larry Williams is the real deal.

He’ll not only teach you how to trade, but he’ll trade his own USD1.0 million account as he teaches. I personally watched Larry make $70,000 while he taught the seminar in 2000 and then shared his profits with the attendees, including myself.

If you’re considering attending one of Larry’s seminars I can only encourage you to take the next step and commit. Larry is one of a kind. There is no one else on this planet who has done what he has and who is prepared to share their knowledge with the private trader. Larry will not disappoint you with the wealth of knowledge he’ll be sharing with attendees.

You can learn more about Larry’s trip to Australia at the following link. http://www.adest.com.au/

If you decide to attend one of Larry’s seminars be sure to mention my name to David Hunt as he’ll give you a discount if you pay before 3rd June.

Just to let you know I receive no benefit for encouraging you to consider attending one of Larry’s seminars. The only benefit I receive is the satisfaction in knowing that I may have helped your decision in receiving your trading education from a genuine and charming man who is a world class trader.

Yours sincerely

Brent Penfold
Private Trader
Futures Adviser
(ASIC AFS Licence Number 225946)

peat
02-06-2005, 07:22 AM
what a crazy nite..... so mnay red candles burning brightly
many hundred pips gained.... account very black now :D

slam
16-06-2005, 09:33 PM
here's an odd one for you
imo CAN/JPY looks good for wave 5 on the 4 hour chart
Quick trade maybe
1 and 3 gave circa 130pips each with 1 being extended
run a very tight stop;)
what you find when you dig around[8D]
cheers
Slam

arco
17-06-2005, 09:02 AM
Yes a very odd pair......unfortunately I do not
get the EOD chart on CAN/JPY so unable to comment.

slam
17-06-2005, 09:36 AM
arco
Xerof gave me this site to look at odd pairs
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/streamingchart.asp
4hour chart

slam
17-06-2005, 09:44 AM
just had a look on a larger time scale and 5 could be over already.[:I]
if so a short on a

arco
17-06-2005, 10:45 AM
Slam

Thanks for the link.

Personally, over a period of years I have found
its easier to get to know 6 pairs really well
and concentrate on them for trading purposes.

arco

slam
17-06-2005, 11:00 AM
know what you mean.
Just had to much time on my hands[:I]

PS do you still think NZD will go higer before next drop?
I get .7207 on the fib from .7354 to .6971

PSS wheres Xerof? miss his posts

cheers
slam

arco
17-06-2005, 11:36 AM
Slam

Re NZ. Hard to tell at the moment exactly
where it will turn.

Gann resistance at 7202 (minor) which fits
in around the Fib 618 area, plus the is a
major Gann level at 4324 if needed (close
to Fib 786).

Markets are dynamic in nature and we know they
move in cycles, we just have to be ready to jump
on the next one when it appears.

The idea is not to worry too much about getting
the exact top (or bottom) but to cream off a
sizeable portion of the longer move.

I think Xerof is busy with Mrs Xerof or maybe
even his 'Fund of Funds'.

PS. Xerof have you invested my $20 yet? :D

slam
17-06-2005, 11:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco


....
The idea is not to worry too much about getting
the exact top (or bottom) but to cream off a
sizeable portion of the longer move.
....


How come you seem to get the Top/Bottom more often than not then;):D

arco
17-06-2005, 11:51 AM
Because I don't worry :D

Xerof
17-06-2005, 02:00 PM
Gentlemen, you've missed me??

I am still around, although haven't done a lot of trades lately - finalising the "fund of funds"

And Arco, although Mrs Xerof is a director, the relationship is more akin to a that of sleeping partner :D:D

Aren't we just seeing some relief to the overbought situation for USD? No trend changes IMO. Buy dollars - wear diamonds [^][^]

High yielders still in vogue, but IMO toppy, in fact may have seen tops last night. If not circa .7200 for Kiwi should be about it.

Xerof

arco
17-06-2005, 02:40 PM
Hello Xerof

Take is easy with you Fund of Funds......looking
forward to being at the launch [8D]

http://www.mcjeff.com/animat/champagne2.gif

Those members who received the EW book may
find this site of help in working there way
through the EW jungle.

Jeff D. Greenblatt - around 46 charts with EW counts
updated regularly.

This site uses Fibonacci time and price relationships,Elliott wave analysis, fractal geometry, chaos theory, lunar cycles and interplanetary combinations as well as traditional technical analysis and is for educational purposes only.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID693789

peat
17-06-2005, 02:42 PM
heheh sleeping partner....

i've scaled back on my Eur shorts thinking the trend was over
been getting burned on my OZ and Kiwi ones that I replaced them with ... still in on Kiwi tho Oz got stopped. Patience being tested tho!

We really think $ are still the shizz??

Wots happening tonite on the news?

arco
20-06-2005, 12:33 PM
May be of interest to EWavers

Know the Wave Principle, Know Thyself 1/12/2005

The "Best Of" Series
Excerpts from Prechter's Perspective

In the 2004 edition of the book, Prechter's Perspective, that contains interviews with Bob Prechter, one
reporter asked Bob about the difference between knowing the Wave Principle and using it for trading.
Let's see what Bob had to say:

Does knowing the Wave Principle guarantee profits?

Only the most trained and experienced market participants can act against their natural tendencies. I have
yet to meet a person who invested or traded with a completely rational program based on reasonable
probabilities, without allowing greed, fear, extraneous opinions or irrelevant judgments to interfere.
It is man's emotional side - particularly his social dependency- that makes him think the way his fellows do;
when he does this, he loses money in the markets. At least using Elliott, you have a basis that makes winning
possible.

What do you advise people to do who want to learn to use the Wave Principle?

The first thing to do is begin following market charts closely. Label and channel the moves according to the
Wave Principle. You'll gain confidence immediately if the market is in an impulse rather than a corrective
pattern. This is when I was fortunate enough to begin, so I quickly saw what was happening. Corrections
are more varied and difficult; still, they are components of impulse waves and also contain impulse waves,
so you will always find corrections at some degree.

What are the Wave Principle's key strengths?

A.J. Frost [co-author with Bob Prechter of the basic Elliott wave textbook called Elliott Wave Principle, Key
to Market Behavior] liked to say, "Its most striking characteristics are its generality and its accuracy." Its
generality gives market perspective, most of the time, and its accuracy in pointing out changes in direction
is at times almost unbelievable.

Why does it work so well?

Because the Wave Principle is 100% technical. No armchair theorizing from economics and politics
necessary.

What's its biggest shortcoming?

There is one main weakness, and this accounts for just about all the problems: There are 11 different
patterns for corrections. When a correction starts, it is impossible to tell in advance which pattern has
begun, so you do not know how it's going to unfold. Therefore, the best that you can do is apply some of
Elliott's observations as guidelines in making an intelligent guess as to what it is.

Are there situations where the Wave Principle does not hold true?

No. It always holds true. But it's one thing to say the markets will follow the Wave Principle and another
thing entirely to forecast the future based on that knowledge. It's always a question of probabilities. Once
you have hands-on experience with it, once you understand the rules and guidelines, it's a lot like becoming
Sherlock Holmes. There are many possible outcomes, but guidelines force you along certain paths of
thinking. You finally reach a point where the evidence becomes overwhelming for a certain conclusion.

slam
20-06-2005, 12:46 PM
Hi arco
This may have been asked before, if so sorry, but do you have any sites where I can read up on butterfly patterns?
cheers
slam

arco
20-06-2005, 02:11 PM
Slam.......try this for starters.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp

http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/voodootrading.html


arco

slam
20-06-2005, 02:21 PM
Thanks arco
At a quick glance of an inexperienced eye,
there seems to be a pattern forming on the 8hour NZ chart
bearish wolfe maybe[:I]

arco
20-06-2005, 04:17 PM
Looks more like a Bullish Rampant Trouser Snake :D

Now here's a site of note......

http://aes.iupui.edu/rwise/

.......just for a change you understand!

slam
20-06-2005, 04:36 PM
anyone got a press:D

slam
24-06-2005, 06:40 AM
Trust Warren to spoil the party when everything against US is looking short:)


quote:Boston, June 23: Warren Buffett is
on CNBC saying he takes a macro view on the USD and expects it to fall over time
owing to the current account deficit. Whether it will fall anytime soon, he
can"t say. Given Buffett has to report quarterly earnings, we would suspect he
will continue to make overseas acquisitions that will help absorb some of his
bad USD bet

arco
24-06-2005, 08:12 AM
Slam

Warren is probably panicking because he is
abundantly short the USD..............
when I say abundantly (LIKE $22 billion
which he admitted to being short USD at Berkshire's
last annual meeting).

How Buffett tripped over the dollar
MSNmoney, 06/15/2005.

The greenback's big rally against other currencies has proved Warren Buffett -- and other dollar bears --
wrong. Here's what Buffett missed.

Berkshire investors suffer. An uncharacteristic earnings growth setback at his Berkshire Hathaway
conglomerate in the first quarter was attributed to this wrong-way wager against the greenback in favor
of other currencies -- including the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and British pound.

The second quarter is concluding with an even worse tone for the position. It’s not fair to assume that the dollar’s rally will continue, but it has shown typical American scrappiness in its comeback against doomsayers and ill-wishers.

Is Buffett likely to be proven right anytime soon, or will his investors continue to suffer from his bearish
posture toward the buck? It all depends on your view of the relative strength of U.S. and European economic policies and political structures.

Buffett has told shareholders that he took his original position based on a belief that Bush policies had led to unsustainable twin deficits in the federal budget and the balance of our trade with the world.

slam
24-06-2005, 08:20 AM
so in other words, he had to say that didn't he;)

arco
24-06-2005, 03:04 PM
Sure did Slam - he has a major investment there.
__________

Now summat smells a bit fishy, and its
not Mrs Xerof cooking dinner.....or
Major Ganns kit bag.

Mmmm...all the oscillators are on the reverse side
of zero to what you might think they should be.

There could be a trap in them thar hills my dear
friends........Beware of the big bad wolf.

Have a good weekend all.

arco

zyreon
24-06-2005, 03:29 PM
isn't buffet famous for investing in -stocks- ?

isn't investing in -stocks- how he made his billions (in a round a bout way)?

stock investor... turned currency speculator - nice one.

(no, i'm not implying anything, gotta give it ago...)

slam
24-06-2005, 03:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


...

Mmmm...all the oscillators are on the reverse side
of zero to what you might think they should be.

There could be a trap in them thar hills my dear
friends........Beware of the big bad wolf.

.....



Are you talking about any particular pair arco?

arco
24-06-2005, 04:04 PM
Slam

Check out USD paired with - GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, JPY.
There may be others.

Zyreon

Buffett has something like $38B in cash.
It must hard to find opportunities
to put all that money to work.

But why would you bother...stuff in a TD. :D]
and sleep easy.

arco
24-06-2005, 04:24 PM
Slam -

Sorry I was on the mobile to Buffett [8D]]

Just to make that point clear.

The oscillators are appearing to signal
perhaps short term bearish USD.

arco

slam
24-06-2005, 04:31 PM
Hope you put him straight about trying to influence with news;)

peat
27-06-2005, 09:34 AM
got me a demo account going on the oanda web platform now....

quite cool coz I can do it from work heeee
ummm maybe thats not so good tho...

Xerof
27-06-2005, 09:45 AM
Tsk, Tsk, first it was porn sites, are FX sites next to be banned in the workplace?

Xerof

peat
27-06-2005, 09:58 AM
they dont ban anything where I work
but I'm sure the proxy server has good logs......

zyreon
27-06-2005, 02:26 PM
i was reading through course notes for "125.320 International Finance" for semester 2 and they suggest using Oanda demo account to help learning etc...

peat
27-06-2005, 02:36 PM
well i've been using it at work today - productivity has reduced somewhat [}:)] and its lookin pretty good... my comparison is GFT's DealBood FX2 software
Being a java based web app portability is a bonus - without loss of much functionality that I can see yet.

slam
28-06-2005, 09:04 AM
All very quiet on the home front people
Lots of pairs at important junctures atm
A waiting game
NZD and AUD seem to have finally stopped following the EUR/USD.
Most civilized sessions I’ve seen, so look out when it all gets going again.
Still, not hard to pick up 20-30 pips on short term trades when it’s like this.:)

Cheers
Slam

zyreon
28-06-2005, 11:37 AM
the calm before the storm... [}:)]

[8D]

arco
29-06-2005, 05:37 PM
For any budding EWavers

http://www.acrotec.com/elliottwave/ew2.jpg

http://www.acrotec.com/elliottwave/ew5.jpg

http://www.acrotec.com/ewt.htm

slam
30-06-2005, 07:36 AM
Morning all
Interesting session of lows being tested again.
Thanks for the charts arco, got them in my book but handy to have digital at the ready for quick pattern recognition.

Cheers
slam

Xerof
01-07-2005, 09:24 AM
Some thoughts for the beginning of July - an historically poor month for the Kiwi.....

The rapid decline seen in GBP this week may be a precursor of what may occur now in NZD, followed by AUD, as the high yielders begin to fall out of favour.

Fed did its 'cut and paste' as I expected - another straw on high yielders backs

Bring on the poor data stream and its all over Rover

Now back to those charts.....where are those bearish bats and spiders.....


Xerof

arco
01-07-2005, 09:30 AM
Morning Xerof

The Butterflies and Bats need quite a bit
of attention today. Some of them are still
fulfilling their promises from weeks/months
back, but there are a few newer possibilities
in the nets.

Amazingly EUR is possibly printing a Bullish Bat...
now that cannot be right me thinks, so I will take it
with a pinch of salt for now.

Perhaps Major Gann will reveal something a little later ;)

arco
04-07-2005, 08:27 AM
Amazingly EUR is possibly printing a Bullish Bat...
That pinch of salt came in handy.
And the 886 Bat Fib was not confirmed
with the required reversal pattern.


Xerof - are you using Mako as a contrarian indicator ;)

Xerof
04-07-2005, 08:40 AM
I am Arco, I am.

I saw his comments on buying Kiwi for the 'summer', and his long Euro position and thought to myself, oh dear, there's one more fund down the drain shortly:D:D

But I see he's only 38 years old, so he has a lot to learn[^][^]

arco
04-07-2005, 11:35 AM
......and the fund holders were blissfully
unaware, that as they slept, Mako burned.

Tossing a coin might be more profitable until
he gets the hang of it.

Alternatively my services are available for a
reasonable sum.....discounted rate US$1000 per hour

Hey....now thats what I call a bargain ;)

arco
05-07-2005, 10:18 AM
I spotted an interesting post on another
forum re articles in the current YTE Magazine.
http://www.yte.com.au/

Apparently there are 2 articles - one an
interview with Welles Wilder who says...
“I believe that within the next 10 years,
we will see a situation in the USA, that
will be as hard on the ordinary family as
1929 was”, he then goes onto say out of
control Government and personal debt will
trigger spiralling interest rates, property/
stock market crashes etc.

The other article was by David Burton and
in it he says and I quote “if you understand
Gann cycles, you will see that after 2008
the economy is likely to collapse” he then
goes onto to say similar things to Wilder.

A copy is winging its way to Warren, - should
perk him up a bit ;)

Xerof
05-07-2005, 10:28 AM
My view is it may happen earlier rather than later on a 10 year timeframe, but I concede it won't be as quick as Rachael Hunters hair product[^][^]:D:D

Xerof

miner
05-07-2005, 03:13 PM
Make sure you guys are watching your screens at 7pm tonight as I will be at a mates watching the rugby with murphy:D;).

slam
05-07-2005, 03:31 PM
put a 10 on for me miner and I'll do the same for you:D

miner
05-07-2005, 08:35 PM
The JAFA's lost and I see murphy has had an ok trading night so far,hope someone grabed a few pips off murphy;).

Xerof
05-07-2005, 10:19 PM
Guys, nice little commentary that might help put things in perspective as to where we might be in this USD rally

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/7a45f28fcba1559/bsccc070505.pdf

slam
06-07-2005, 06:59 AM
Interesting article Xerof

peat
06-07-2005, 07:53 AM
slam
he does a daily email linking to his commentaries, , while he doesnt really give actual trade tips , they are quite good from an strategic perspective.

slam
06-07-2005, 07:58 AM
cheers pete
just signed up.[8D]
slam

Xerof
06-07-2005, 08:30 AM
Black Swan do give trade ideas if you subscribe as a member. US99 per mth. They're currently short from 11980 EUR, short oz and have just gone long USD/CAD as well. I have them on a watching brief at the moment to see how they go over a month or two

Xerof