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Phaedrus
08-05-2005, 08:19 AM
The on-going fall in the shareprice of this stock is likely to be continued tomorrow and people can at last identify a logical "reason" for the slide.

For those monitoring HBY's price movement, this weakness began way back in early March when multiple simple trend indicators gave Sell signals. The current downtrend began on 15/3/05.

The On Balance Volume indicator is supposed to be a "leading" indicator, giving signals that precede price changes. That was certainly the case here - the OBV showed weakness well before any of the trend indicators plotted in the chart below.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/HBY58001.gif

Caesius
08-05-2005, 01:56 PM
So why is it going to keep going down? From the little I know on the subject of TA I would have thought this to be a weak buy signal as the SP has broken the imaginary trend line touching the peaks as SP descended.

winner69
08-05-2005, 04:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by Caesius

So why is it going to keep going down?

I don't think Phaedrus was saying that it is going to keep going down from a TA perspective ... rather the announcement of a profit downgrade after the market closed on friday might cause more selling pressure on Monday

Even so from a TA perspective little if nothing to give one any confidence in buying on Monday

But one day there will be some BUY signals

rmbbrave
09-05-2005, 12:29 PM
Down 10% today!

winner69
09-05-2005, 06:06 PM
Maybe Phaedrus 'knew' something when he cut the chart he posted off at the 500 mark.

That 500 was where HBY essentially traded from Sep 8 2003 (495) to July 12 2004 (500) - in that time there were only a few weeks where it ended the week outside a 2.5% range of 500.

This was a very long sustained narrow trading range and the HBY price went nowhere. Have a look at the chart

In view of current sentiment to shares in general, retail stocks in particular and HBY specifically it would not be surprising to see HBY hang around this 500 mark for the rest of the year.

Thats how I see it and with HBY now trading at anything between 10-12 times earnings (depending on how far they away from 'not achieving the 20% increase previously indicated') not much incentive to get carried away by how 'cheap' this is at the moment and buy some just at this time

halcyon9
09-05-2005, 06:23 PM
Winner, just did some simple new forward PER figures

and came up with PE 12.3

with HBY at $5 and a 10% increase on last years $18.5m rather than 20% as previously indicated.



$5 showed itself today, with an afternoon bounce.

rmbbrave
13-06-2006, 05:11 PM
It looks to me like HBY's 1 and a half year down trend has been broken.

It's a bit hard to tell though because the monitor's screen is curved and the ruler is straight.

Snow Leopard
13-06-2006, 05:56 PM
On a chart with a linear plot (as P used in the initial graph a year ago) then yes the downtrend has been breached. :)
However if you use a log plot you are not there yet. [V]

What you might want to consider is that today's close is a resistance level having reached this three times in Feb/Mar. :(

disc: have a flat screen [8D]

ttfn

rmbbrave
13-06-2006, 08:03 PM
Why on earth would anyone use a logrithmic graph for HBY's SP?

In the last 5 years it has ranged between $2 and $7.

If you were plotting human population over the last 80,000 years, which has ranged between 10,000 and 6 billion, then a log plot would be a good idea, but for HBY's SP a log plot is madness.

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 06:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Why on earth would anyone use a logrithmic graph for HBY's SP?

In the last 5 years it has ranged between $2 and $7.

If you were plotting human population over the last 80,000 years, which has ranged between 10,000 and 6 billion, then a log plot would be a good idea, but for HBY's SP a log plot is madness.

a simple thank you would have sufficed.

Phaedrus
14-06-2006, 08:36 AM
Rmbbrave, Log plots are not madness and are in fact what you should normally use. Here's why. Say you had a stock that was in an absolutely linear uptrend, going up steadily at the rate of 1%/month. Only on a log plot would this show as a straight line. Using a linear price scale would result in a curved line and you would no longer be able to easily monitor price action with a single straight trendline. Generally speaking, log scales are better. Here's the clincher :- Duncan needs to use a log scale when he plots his 20%pa timelines, otherwise they would be at different angles depending on their position on the chart.

Occasionally you have a stock that is rising (or falling) at a slowly diminishing rate. Such price action cannot be monitored by the use of a single straight trendline if you are using a log scale. If you want to use trendlines, linear price scales are better in such cases.

The lin/log scale choice does not affect other indicators such as moving averages, trailing stops, etc.

rmbbrave
14-06-2006, 10:51 AM
If a stock is going up at 1% a month, then it isn't in an "absolutely linear uptrend". It is a logrithmic uptrend.

It seems to me that you are advocating massaging the data just so you can draw straight trend lines all over the place.

What do you think of HBY's recent price movements?

I don't really mind whether you post a log or linear graph.

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 11:02 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

If a stock is going up at 1% a month, then it isn't in an "absolutely linear uptrend". It is a logrithmic uptrend.

It is visually linear on a log plot and exponential on a linear plot.

Halebop
14-06-2006, 11:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

It seems to me that you are advocating massaging the data just so you can draw straight trend lines all over the place.

When drawing a trend line it has to be a straight line. If something logically moves exponentially (like compounding wealth) it's logical to use a logrithmic chart. This doesn't "massage" the data - the data is the same no matter the choice of chart. It might impact the appearance of the trend line, but the longer the series (and the greater the distortion of compounding) this is beneficial rather distoring.

Personally I would distinguish using Log versus normal charts depending on the time frame I was measuring and the degree of distortion created by compounding (I'm not just talking share charts here, this applies to any graph). In practical terms this means I couldn't really select which is better until I see the data. This of course opens me to accusations of "massaging" which is not the case. Its merely selecting the most appropriate presentation for the data, rather than risk accusations of lies, damn lies and all that or present a trend line that might distort the true result (10% compounding would look like returns are improving at the top on a normal chart).

Phaedrus
14-06-2006, 11:57 AM
Rmbbrave, try looking at it like this. Say you have a $1 stock going up at 1 cent per week, every week. Plotted with a linear price axis, this gives a straight line. (Even though the RATE of increase is steadily falling)
If the same $1 stock was going up at 1% per week, it would give a straight line when plotted with a log price axis.
Since we are trying to monitor the uptrend by the simplest most accurate means possible, it makes sense to select the price scale whereby the "norm" is a straight line. This is usually a log scale, but if the price range is not great it makes no difference either way.

What do I think of HBY's recent price movements? Well, today it struck resistance again at $5 exactly as forewarned by PT. No surprise there. As I have said all too many times, resistance (or support) is often found at round numbers. The chart shows 2 trendlines such as would be used by short or medium term traders. Both gave an entry at around the same price.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/HBY614001.gif

rmbbrave
14-06-2006, 04:38 PM
Actually the 2 points I put my ruler through to draw a trend line were 7.25 (about) in Jan/Feb 2005 and 6.15 (about) in Oct 2005.

A time frame of 1.5 years.

I suppose, I'm assuming that the longer the trend the more significant the reversal.

Gryffyn
15-06-2006, 03:50 PM
Another cashing up sale today. What are they going to buy? TEL, WHS ;) Some carpet maker perhaps?

Oracle
15-06-2006, 03:59 PM
Gryffn

Has to be something bigger than their usual, in spite of what Houldsworth says. How about Dorchester? Common shareholder & directors. Houldsworth an ex banker. Source of finance for their heavy equipment sales & rentals. Just a thought. Probably wrong.

Halebop
15-06-2006, 04:09 PM
David Houldsworth is also ex Landmark Corporation. He might just appreciate the cash is king mantra in an uncertain environment.

Snow Leopard
15-06-2006, 05:25 PM
In order to save rmbbrave from the necessity of filing down one side of his ruler to produce the required exponential curve.
Today's closing price is still below that trend line when a logarithmic price axis is used. :(

Gryffyn
16-06-2006, 07:16 AM
Hellaby sells industrial properties

6.40am Friday June 16, 2006

Hellaby Holdings has sold five industrial properties in Wanganui and Levin.

The properties are tenanted by its subsidiaries, TRS Tyre & Wheel and Levana Textiles.

Hellaby managing director David Houldsworth said the net selling price after costs was about $4.4 million. The net gain over the book value would be about $2.6 million.

Hellaby is selling non-core assets to strengthen its financial base and increase its funds pool for future purchases.

Gryffyn
16-06-2006, 07:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by Oracle

Gryffn

Has to be something bigger than their usual, in spite of what Houldsworth says. How about Dorchester? Common shareholder & directors. Houldsworth an ex banker. Source of finance for their heavy equipment sales & rentals. Just a thought. Probably wrong.

Hasn't Dorchester just gone to Nat bank with Direct?

scamper
22-01-2007, 09:52 AM
Cooo-er
it seems that the current 419 doesn't even register on graphs of recent memory. fresh lows to mark a grim two years.
anyone thinking that 419 is good value? cheers.

Steve
22-01-2007, 10:08 AM
Is the expected 20% drop for the FY based on core earnings? If so, what is the effect of any 'one-off' items?

redzone
22-01-2007, 11:36 AM
and everything is suppose to be good in our economy....first signs of the cracks appearing?

winner69
22-01-2007, 02:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by scamper

Cooo-er
it seems that the current 419 doesn't even register on graphs of recent memory. fresh lows to mark a grim two years.
anyone thinking that 419 is good value? cheers.


At 400 odd .... yes ... not seen since May 2003

Good value yet .... not in my books

Say H1 profits down 50% .... that implies $4.65M (9 cents a share)

But things are picking up and they will end the year only 20% down .... implying $14-15M (after adjusting for last years one offs and ignoring the current year adjustments) ... ie 28-30 cps) so still at 13-14 times earnings

So not cheap .... not pricing in any more bad news is it

Any more bad news .... very likely

Getting a long history of profit downgrades ain't they

And that outlook for the full year means that they will be making more than $10M in the 2nd half .... MORE than they made last year .... and H1 is going to be down 50% .... soem turn around .... hey mates, will market conditions / environment change that much?

Anyway .... each to their own views .... I wouldn't be surprised if HBY trade down below 350 sometime this year

After all just look at the charts ... Phaedrus said some time ago these suggested that all was not that well with HBY

I.T.Ancient
22-01-2007, 03:07 PM
In the big picture, this is a good company. A couple of boomer years had the market and the directors getting ahead of themselves. I've been in and out and I'll be in again when the time is right - not yet.

scamper
22-01-2007, 04:13 PM
Me too, sold last month at 488, which is the second time i've had a narrow squeak with hby.
thank you Winner for your number-crunching. cheers.

winner69
22-01-2007, 06:56 PM
No worries scamper

HBY performance, both strategy implementation and financial results, has always been a bit hard to judge because everything has not always been all that transparent or clear.

You do need to do a fair bit of digging to get a better idea of what the underlying performance is and even then I would not be too confident I have it right ... but take solace in the fact what has happened does not surprise me

There were ominious signs last year when HBY's financial performance for F06 was essentially the same as F05, in spite of changes in the stable that were supposed to improve their portfolio.

I had already bailed from HBY and that result and subsequent comments at the AGM did not tempt me back in (and the charts supported that view)

You have to be a bit worried when they say H1 earnings will be down 50% on last year .... heck that's some drop ... and must be a worry when it seems that it is not just retail that's down but the industrial businesses that 'disappointing' with profits 'significantly down' ... I can't see prevailing conditions changing much over the next 6 months so the full year forecast looks pretty optimistic ..... and their track record of forecasts ain't too good .... like it was only 2 months ago that they said they didn't need to change their outlook ... and now 50% down ... wow

Just a rave ... I see more action to come

winner69
23-01-2007, 05:53 AM
All is well down on the farm .... just a blip

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10420383

Houldsworth expected a greater fall (picked $4)

And I always get the warm fuzzies when the likes of Forbar analyst John Cairns says the share price drop was bit of an over-reaction ..... "bearing in mind that a number of the issues that they've confronted are of a short term nature and they've signalled that they're picking reasonable recovery in the second half back to their normal trading pattern".

Let's wait and see

winner69
23-01-2007, 09:44 AM
For those convinced the market over reacted the HBYIZA currently at 173 is good value

Anoth 250 to go in 2008 sometime, can be rolled over, but 30+ cent dividend is pretty lucrative (25% gross return) with all the potential share price upside leverage as well

Steve
23-01-2007, 09:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

For those convinced the market over reacted the HBYIZA currently at 173 is good value

Anoth 250 to go in 2008 sometime, can be rolled over, but 30+ cent dividend is pretty lucrative (25% gross return) with all the potential share price upside leverage as well

Will the dividend be maintained?

winner69
23-01-2007, 11:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by winner69

For those convinced the market over reacted the HBYIZA currently at 173 is good value

Anoth 250 to go in 2008 sometime, can be rolled over, but 30+ cent dividend is pretty lucrative (25% gross return) with all the potential share price upside leverage as well

Will the dividend be maintained?


Steve ..... with the good story in the paper this morning you would have to think so

scamper
31-01-2007, 12:55 PM
well, there are sellers at 402 and 403 today.
it seems like the original drop was not an "over-reaction" as suggested by forbar last week.
I'm inclined to think that I.T.Ancient is right in that 'in the big picture, this is a good company', but am harbouring doubts to the extent that i'm not tempted to get back in atm.
maybe at 400 in another 4 weeks, or 380 over the next couple of weeks.
cheers, scamper -- not holding hby.

zyreon
31-01-2007, 01:57 PM
Yeah I dumped mine, I figure there's many places where better growth can be found.

winner69
01-02-2007, 03:03 PM
The 400 mark holding today

Steve
02-02-2007, 01:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

The 400 mark holding today

Yes, it appears to have stabilised above 400...

777
26-02-2007, 04:02 PM
HBY
26/02/2007
HALFYR

REL: 1633 HRS Hellaby Holdings Limited

HALFYR: HBY: Hellaby Holdings Ltd - Half Year Profit Announcement

26 February 2007

HELLABY HALF YEAR PROFIT ANNOUNCEMENT

The directors of Hellaby Holdings today announced the Company's financial
results for the six months to 31 December 2006, details of which are
attached.

As foreshadowed in the Company's announcement of 19 January 2007, the Hellaby
Group underlying tax paid surplus for the six months ended 31 December 2006
was $4.49 million, 52% down on the underlying tax paid profit for the same
period in the previous year.

The Hellaby Group tax paid profit for the six months to 31 December 2006 was
$2.8 million, net of a one-off pre-tax adjustment of $2.6 million resulting
from the application of IAS 39.

As previously indicated, the reduced profit for the six months was due to a
disappointing result from the Group's retail businesses in the crucial
December period, combined with a lower contribution from the Group's
industrial businesses and the loss of profit contribution from Rodd & Gunn
which was sold in June 2006.

Hellaby directors have approved an interim dividend of 10 cents per share
fully imputed (last year 15 cents per share) payable on 20 April 2007 (ex
dividend date 13 April 2007).

Hellaby directors confirm their expectation that sales and profitability will
recover in the second half of the year. However this will not offset the
first half result and the directors anticipate that the Group's underlying
tax paid profit (pre IFRS adjustments) will be down by around 20% on the
previous year.

For further information please contact.

David Houldsworth
MANAGING DIRECTOR

09 307 6844 or
021-722 455

HELLABY HOLDINGS LIMITED
Results for announcement to the market
Reporting Period 6 months to 31 December 2006
Previous Reporting Period 6 months to 31 December 2005

Amount (000s); Percentage change
Revenue from ordinary activities $229,917; -9.1 %
Profit (loss) from ordinary activities after tax attributable to shareholders
$2,768; -70.2 %
Net profit (loss) attributable to shareholders. $2,768; -70.2 %

Final Dividend Gross amount per share Imputed amount per share
10.0 cents 4.925373 cents

Record Date 13 April 2007
Dividend Payment Date 20 April 2007
Dividend Reinvestment Plan - last date for receipt of election notice. 13
April 2007
Audit The abridged interim financial statements attached to this report
have not been audited.

Comments: Refer to the "Directors Report" for commentary on the
reduction in profit from operations..
The reduction in revenue is largely attributable to $22.1 million of
revenue for Rodd & Gunn in the half year ended 31 December 2005. This
business was sold in June 2006.
End CA:00143973 For:HBY Type:HALFYR Time:2007-02-26:16:33:39

Hoop
25-04-2007, 10:01 AM
Belgarion,
The Williamson and Houldworth disclosures were extra shares gained thru the Dividend Reinvestment Plan. It seemed that major shareholders (above 14.7% holdings)took the plan rather than the cash, and the extra shares came from the company's treasury, so there is no on market buy back of shares. Overall the DRP has saved the company $0.7M in cash reserves. I wouldn't get to excited about this, in fact I feel the opposite. TA doesn't look much good either.
Inserted below is part of the news release dated 18th April .


Disc Hold HBY [:I]



[i].....Hellaby Holdings Limited ("Hellaby") notifies that the "strike price" used to
calculate entitlements under its Dividend Reinvestment Plan ("Plan") has been
set at $ 3.74.

Hellaby has confirmed that shareholders holding 14.5% of issued shares in the
Company have elected to take shares in lieu of dividend. Of the total
Hellaby dividend of $5.0 million approximately $0.7 million will be satisfied
by the issue of shares and the balance of $4.3 million will be paid in cash.

Hellaby has further confirmed that the shares to be allocated pursuant to the
Plan will be from Treasury Stock, held by Hellaby as a result of earlier
share buy-backs........

Lizard
25-04-2007, 10:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

One notes a director (Williamson) buying on market to substantially increase his holding.

A TA's veiew on a recent chart would be helpful - methinks a top-up might be in order.


Nice to find a fellow user of the Rorschach charting method! Yep, the chart looks bullish to me. Turned it upside down and it looked even better. :D

Phaedrus
25-04-2007, 06:58 PM
You think a top-up might be in order Belg? You mean you already hold HBY? I can only assume you now want to average down. Aaaarrrggghhhhhh!!!!!

Alas, technically there is nothing at all to show that the downtrend has ended or even slowed so I fear your losses are set to continue for a while yet. Buying now does offer an opportunity to add to them.

See how HBY is still making new (4 year) lows.
See how the On Balance Volume continues to fall.
Observe how far apart the +DI and -DI indicators are.
Note the strongly negative slow Stochastic oscillator.

You don't really want to buy right now - do you?

The red arrows mark Sell signals.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/HBY425001.gif

hairdresser
26-04-2007, 03:02 AM
Never average down.....

You're better off selling out and buying back in cheaper, or after the price starts ro rise again.

jonny5
26-04-2007, 09:36 AM
Hi Phaedrus,

Interested in what software you use for your charting...

Willing to spill a few secrets?

J5

Phaedrus
26-04-2007, 09:17 PM
I use MetaStock software, though there are quite a few other charting programs with similar functionality.

winner69
28-05-2007, 06:05 PM
These little gems from HBY like todays announcement (even more confusing than the last one) getting a bit regular eh ..... and the share price goes below 400 .... good time for Belg to buy even more

A few years ago HBY management was rated top class .... it was them that guided the company through a good growth period ..... but know you might have to call them average at best ..... a great example of the 'halo effect'

The converted will still have faith .... they say 'the underlying strength of the company
remains unimpaired.' so everything must be OK

I.T.Ancient
29-05-2007, 09:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by I.T.Ancient

In the big picture, this is a good company. A couple of boomer years had the market and the directors getting ahead of themselves. I've been in and out and I'll be in again when the time is right - not yet.


Still not yet. As a guess I'd say round about September at about 3.50.

777
07-06-2007, 10:54 AM
HBY
07/06/2007
OFFICE

REL: 1131 HRS Hellaby Holdings Limited

OFFICE: HBY: HELLABY HOLDINGS CEO DAVID HOULDSWORTH TO STEP DOWN

7 June 2007

DAVID HOULDSWORTH TO STEP DOWN AS CEO OF HELLABY HOLDINGS

Hellaby Holdings today announced that its Chief Executive Officer, David
Houldsworth, has given notice of his intention to resign from the company
over the next few months.

David Houldsworth commented: "after almost 10 years as CEO of Hellaby
Holdings I have concluded that, as the company is at the threshold of a new
growth phase, it is an appropriate time for me to pursue personal and other
business interests. This will allow the company to appoint a new CEO to
guide this new phase of its development."

"As there are a number of unfinished projects underway I have agreed with the
board to see these through to fruition in association with the new CEO when
appointed."

Chairman Bill Falconer confirmed that a search process for a successor has
commenced, and that David Houldsworth will continue in the position until an
appointment has been made. He said that Mr. Houldsworth has also agreed to
remain available to the company to assist with the completion of a number of
projects the company is currently engaged in.

For further information please contact.

David Houldsworth
MANAGING DIRECTOR

Lawso
07-06-2007, 02:50 PM
No loss IMO

scamper
07-06-2007, 09:12 PM
agree, lawso!
the last tzo and a half years have been rubbish all the way.

warthog
07-06-2007, 10:13 PM
In the hog's opinion, DH has steered HBY through some pretty solid periods of growth and contributed much to the process of identifying suitable acquisitions and working on how they fit into the HBY group. Not a perfect track-record by any means, but it would be wrong to say that Houldsworth's departure is "no loss".

winner69
08-06-2007, 03:48 PM
When HBY shareprice kept rising Houldsworth was god .... 'a great manager' ... 'one of the best'

and now when things not going to plan he is 'no loss IMO' msterial .... obviously meaning a a pretty crappy manager


HBY had fantastic strategy once .... now it's crap

The old halo effect eh --- judgement based on the current events and for no other reason

Wonder if Houldsworth is a great manager ... or a crap one .... based on long term results you would have to say great

Added immense value to HBY .... not really his fault the market overvalued his company is it

Longtack
09-06-2007, 01:55 PM
Will the $3.80 support hold?
What happens then? Either a trading range or a trendline break?

If I was a trader or holder I'd be pondering these.

winner69
28-06-2007, 01:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by Longtack


Will the $3.80 support hold?
What happens then? Either a trading range or a trendline break?

If I was a trader or holder I'd be pondering these.





didn't did it .... and you wonder how low it can actually go .... especially when nobody really knows what businesses will make up HBY in the future

Looks like all retail will go ..... let the new man focus on the industrial businesses .... but they seem to have actions around the different sectors they want to be in out of kilter with economic cycles

Never mind .... hope they can find somebody with big pockets to buy the shoe outfits

Anybody interested in this what was a great company once (so ssys the shareprice)

clearasmud
29-06-2007, 07:55 AM
I sold out quickly in the middle of last year because the balance sheet (debt) didn't look too pretty.
better keep watching.

winner69
11-07-2007, 11:06 AM
Looking sadder by the day ..... back to where it was 4 years ago ... good buy and hold eh Phaedrus

That Houldsworth was a guru ..... so many said

winner69
11-08-2007, 12:49 PM
Belg has been banned but bet he keeping an eye on this thread ..... bitten the bullet yet belg and turned those 1000 shares into 10,000 so your average price below 320 or something

Doesn't seem any end in sight for the down trend here ..... round numbers like 500 and 400 seem to have been support/resistance in the past so for belg's sake hope the 300 mark holds

winner69
11-08-2007, 01:01 PM
even those HBY010 things (2011 Notes) have lost a lot of capital value over the last few months ..... reflecting a fair bit of market risk put on HBY

winner69
06-12-2007, 10:10 AM
For those convinced the market over reacted the HBYIZA currently at 173 is good value

Anoth 250 to go in 2008 sometime, can be rolled over, but 30+ cent dividend is pretty lucrative (25% gross return) with all the potential share price upside leverage as well

Hope not too many punters convinced about the HBY story back in Jan this year

Those HBYIZA thingies now only 11 cents ....... with 275 to be paid next March as well (can be rolled over)

So HBYIZA at 173 under a year ago ---- now 11 ----- leverage is good eh

Lizard
06-12-2007, 04:45 PM
People out there complaining that the NZX is too expensive....and you can just about buy this at 2002 prices. Yet, I'm afraid, even that doesn't seem tempting.

Sometimes seems like on the NZX, it is one great Merry-go-round. The mid-caps go in and out of favour on some very long cycle and revolve around the same eternal pricing...

winner69
12-01-2008, 08:21 PM
Hey Lizard ..... even cheaper this week .... a bargain at 230 after Fridays fall

Is that you with in that bid for 50,000 of those HBYIZA thingies at 2 cents when the sell is 20 cents ............ even though 275 is still due on them next March but they do roll over ....... might have to beat you and put a bid in 3 cents ........ cheap way of getting a dividend

Back to HBY .... if the banks weren't too worried about the HBY debt levels before you would have to think they are now ..... pretty highly leveraged is HBY .... even more so with some dog imvestments to look after

winner69
12-01-2008, 08:32 PM
I even see that the 8,5% HBY June 2011 Capital Notes are priced near 12% at the mo ...... the poor mums and dads will have to hold these to maturity now won't they

Those things account for $50 million of the HBY debt ..... leaves the banks with $70 million plus

Lizard
13-01-2008, 08:25 AM
IZA's with $2.75 outstanding? Good luck with the dividend... and wouldn't margin be cheaper? :p

But speaking of notes, do you think it's time we started poring over the debt market to see if there are any real bargains?

Dubdee
14-01-2008, 02:52 PM
[QUOTE=jesseclay;180464]Great Idea Lizard.

I'm still trying to get my head around the DX Market so a tread dedicated to this would be great.

For instance who/how determines the Buy/sell % compared to the coupon rate. What does this mean in $ terms?

There are real bargains to be had in the NZDX. Anything with a smattering
of leverage or anything structured an associated with CDOs has all been sold off.

For instance GCNFA's which are AAA rated are trading for 1 year maturity at 13.40% pa (95 mid price) and lots of other bargains exist. For the really bold try PPCS secured bonds at 24% PA. The word CDO has spooked a lot of retail but the statics have held up well because they are corporate risk based, not mortgage backed. Despite the sub prime fiasco not one NZDX listed static CDO has been degraded in rating since then, but still they have all been massively sold off by retail. Some of the cpaital guaranteed deals have traded below the price of the capital guarantee alone, thereby assuming no further income is generated over their life and massively below NTA. Dont go into rabo as you can buy senior bank debt at similar yields to this quasi equity deal.


Fixed term bonds and capital notes (which have a synthesised maturity) are usually quoted as a yield and you need a bond calculator (HP12c or like) to work out the price; securities that are perpetual or dont fit the bond calculator because of a broken last period or the like are quoted on price on NZDX. Prices/yields are market fixed but professional traders look at the NZ$ interest rate swap curve ( where banks borrow) as a benchmark

Lizard
14-01-2008, 08:14 PM
Thanks Dubdee - some interesting and useful info in there. Would be good to have a DX thread somewhere - though I guess with the lack of liquidity, opportunities can be hard to discuss.

Lizard
14-01-2008, 08:52 PM
Is that you with in that bid for 50,000 of those HBYIZA thingies at 2 cents when the sell is 20 cents ............ even though 275 is still due on them next March but they do roll over ....... might have to beat you and put a bid in 3 cents ........ cheap way of getting a dividend


Sorry to be so slow Winner, but you got me interested in the exact details of how this would work - but I can't locate a detailed prospectus or investment statement for the warrants... Even assuming HBY came in on track and weren't under pressure from banks, I'm figuring they'd maybe pay a 5cps interim dividend by their 50% payout statement and forecasts. But previous interim dividends have been paid in April, so the reset would have expired and would have to pre-pay 18 months interest on the installment amount (at 9.5%?) so about 39cpw to keep the warrants alive for another 18 months in order to be eligible for the dividend? Have I got that correct?

Deev8
15-01-2008, 10:05 AM
I'm still trying to get my head around the DX Market so a tread dedicated to this would be great. For instance who/how determines the Buy/sell % compared to the coupon rate. What does this mean in $ terms?It's worth reading through the NZDX FAQs on the NZX website:
NZDX FAQs (http://www.nzx.com/nzxmarket/nzdx/faq)

Steve
07-02-2008, 08:48 PM
discl: hold @ av 2.32 and still averaging down

Belg, don't let MACDUNK see you use the words 'averaging down'!!! :D

winner69
07-02-2008, 08:53 PM
Belg, don't let MACDUNK see you use the words 'averaging down'!!! :D


Steve - Belg just doing one of his wind up jobs - Belg is just too astute to average down on a dog like HBY

Just look at the MHI thread .... Belg only averages UP .... like the Egyptians building a pyramid

New Jersey girl
16-02-2008, 08:26 AM
It is difficult not to see sense in Belgarion's position.

This time last year HBY had already advised the market that it was not meeting its expectations. With the half year out in a fortnight or so, the lack of news should be good news. In the annual report, the CEO was expecting underlying EBITA and presumably EBIT to return to normal: in ball park terms, this means EBIT of $30m. Subtract $10m interest, let the taxman take his share and that still leaves $12-14m or roughly 25c a share after tax. I presume more; but on these figures it seems that at current prices the after tax P/E is less than 8. True, the dividend payout will be low, possibly zero this year; but since HBY can make 12% simply by repurchasing notes, it seems safe to let management keep most of the interim profit. These prices, similar to 1997/8 levels, appear to be very good to a long term investor.

The worry about HBY is whether it can still maintain pricing margins in their main automotive and shoe businesses given cost patterns. The Reserve Bank's failure to control inflation must be working in their favour, as it no longer seems unacceptable to increase prices by 2-5 percent a year. The strength of the NZ dollar can't hurt at the moment, even if the appreciation against China and Japan is smaller than against the US and AU dollars.

It is getting to tempting to ignore the trading pattern and buy some more. People may be psychologically disposed to buy assets that have rising prices rather than low prices, but at some point a Jersey girl must take a stand against the tricks of the mind. At the very least, an investment company portfolio rebalance

New Jersey girl
26-02-2008, 05:05 PM
The result is nearly good enough to stop the shareprice rot, but it isn't going to get the CEO much closer to the bonus he is meant to earn if he achieves 3 years 15% compound growth in the shareprice (from $3??? - does anyone know those details?)

Overall, the EBIT is a bit weaker than one would hope and reflects continued poor retailing results. The increase in inventories seems rather high even given the new packaging businesses - and certainly raises questions as to why they are giving away $2.5m unfranked dividends at the moment. Still, they may have moved all those extra shoes in January, and management does seem to be trying to restore some confidence in the share price.

I'm not a tax lawyer: can someone explain how you can pay $1.9m tax but not get enough imputation credits for a $2.5m dividend? Is it because they didn't actually pay the tax but took a charge against last year's loss?

On balance: not disappointed to have bought a few more at current low prices, but might have to wait a bit longer than hoped to get the price up to $3 again. At current prices, 1 HBY and 1 OZY is possibly a better buy than 1 Rangatira, but not by much; Rangatira is trading cheaply too. I'll take the dividend as shares and hope they use it to pay off debt

Steve
27-02-2008, 04:31 PM
late reaction sent it up 6.7%
not too bad.

And up another 4% today...

Lizard
30-06-2008, 09:14 PM
Is it time we started placing bets on HBY's survival? Must go crunch the figures after today's announcement of a "transactional loss" of $10m (what does that mean?) on the sale of the BBQ factory, along with reduction in forecast EBITDA to $40m.

Anyone know what they actually paid for the BBQ factory? They wrote down goodwill of $5.1m in 2006 and $18.1m in 2007... They were forecasting EBIT of $4.7m when they purchased it in 2004 and said it should easily meet their required return on investment of 20%... oops.

There are still buyers for the HBY010 at 17.5% yield though, so the conservative world of bond-holders still has more faith in getting their capital returned than the buyers for PVO020 at 27.5%...

Lizard
30-06-2008, 09:48 PM
Okay, having crunched the numbers further, I would say there is still hope here for HBY. Of particular note, they seem to have turned around the cashflow issues of first half to book a 25% reduction in bank debt to $90m (still also have the notes at $48.7m). Further small asset sales to reduce debt will also be helping to keep them on the right side of their banking covenants.

While the result looks like falling in the region of $11m NPAT before BBQ factory "transactional loss" and about $4m after, the reduction in debt should still allow some breathing space. Provided they can hold ground through this economic downturn (which would seem a not insignificant risk), they look reasonable value here at EV/EBIT of around 7.3.

Though I don't feel the urge to rush out and buy - even here at $1.35.

COLIN
30-06-2008, 11:15 PM
Okay, having crunched the numbers further, I would say there is still hope here for HBY. Of particular note, they seem to have turned around the cashflow issues of first half to book a 25% reduction in bank debt to $90m (still also have the notes at $48.7m). Further small asset sales to reduce debt will also be helping to keep them on the right side of their banking covenants.

While the result looks like falling in the region of $11m NPAT before BBQ factory "transactional loss" and about $4m after, the reduction in debt should still allow some breathing space. Provided they can hold ground through this economic downturn (which would seem a not insignificant risk), they look reasonable value here at EV/EBIT of around 7.3.

Though I don't feel the urge to rush out and buy - even here at $1.35.
The chart is a shocker, and further decline tomorrow. I have made money out of HBY in the past but bailed out some time ago. Wouldn't touch it again in this market, and certainly not until a steadily rising trend had been established.

COLIN
01-07-2008, 10:47 AM
The chart is a shocker, and further decline tomorrow. I have made money out of HBY in the past but bailed out some time ago. Wouldn't touch it again in this market, and certainly not until a steadily rising trend had been established.
Well, looks like I'll have to eat my words. Today's rebound has taken me by surprise, but I believe it will soon fizzle and die. They have got rid of the BBQ Factory - good, but we all knew it was a dud and was surely already eliminated from the equation by investors assessing Hby's future. And in today's depressed retail climate we can't expect much joy from their other retail ventures for the short to medium future. And the manufacturing involvements must be experiencing headwinds too, I would have thought.

macduffy
01-07-2008, 12:30 PM
Well, looks like I'll have to eat my words. Today's rebound has taken me by surprise, but I believe it will soon fizzle and die. They have got rid of the BBQ Factory - good, but we all knew it was a dud and was surely already eliminated from the equation by investors assessing Hby's future. And in today's depressed retail climate we can't expect much joy from their other retail ventures for the short to medium future. And the manufacturing involvements must be experiencing headwinds too, I would have thought.

Yes, not the end of HBY's problems by any means but the big plus was getting rid of a loss-making unit which looked like being an ongoing drain on capital and management.

Lizard
01-07-2008, 05:33 PM
I thought 1.35 was a bargain - And today was the largest trading for months - and it reached 1.64 ... which I also think is a bargain.

PE at 1.35 is around 5 ... NTA was about 1.60 ... now? 1.50?

Yes, you are probably right. There is more than likely a 3 month - 6 month trade here...and risk/return of 100% in the balance, so it's a fair bet. I'm probably just a little market-shy, with even the "safe" balance sheets giving me a hard ride. :cool:

macduffy
02-09-2008, 12:07 PM
Well picked, b !

I'm holding too but prepared to quit if/when the steam goes out of the SP.

;)

Contrarian
02-09-2008, 08:20 PM
Gidday
Mr Green, The repected investor, is also a less revered investor in DORCHESTER!

You win some & loose some

Lizard
30-10-2008, 09:04 PM
How's the stops going Belg?

Though I guess if you were using them you'd have been getting out from around $2, with perhaps the last of them away at about $1.80?

Not the most reassuring of AGM speeches, despite their great turnaround efforts in prior period.

Stranger_Danger
26-11-2008, 12:17 PM
Belg,

I reckon you're wrong, but have absolutely no insider info so your guess is as good as mine.

I've always kept an eye on and regarded HBY as an "index fund of small/medium NZ businesses" and thats not an index fund I want to be in for the next few years. Also, the debt levels concern me.

Was formerly a happy holder for years but, not for me these days. They definitely *look* cheap though so I could be utterly wrong!

Anna Naum
27-11-2008, 08:28 AM
Two things worry me about HBY at the moment. Debt and the leverage they have to the NZ economy. Sure it is cheap, but you can say that about most NZ stocks at the moment.

macduffy
27-11-2008, 09:34 AM
Two things worry me about HBY at the moment. Debt and the leverage they have to the NZ economy. Sure it is cheap, but you can say that about most NZ stocks at the moment.

Fair points, their machinery/automotive businesses in particular are highly import dependent and will struggle with a weaker NZD and subdued demand.

Disc: Still hold a few.

Anna Naum
27-11-2008, 02:35 PM
ACC have been in HBY before so I guess they know the company and its various parts well.

warthog
27-11-2008, 03:54 PM
ACC were in HBY from the early days. Things change.

Anna Naum
28-11-2008, 07:17 AM
A look at the substantial notices suggests that ACC were a holder but then sold down/out...the latest announcement suggests they have been buying recently.

macduffy
10-12-2008, 05:15 PM
For those who havn't seen it here is today's article on John Williamson.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4788474a1864.html

warthog
10-12-2008, 08:27 PM
For those who havn't seen it here is today's article on John Williamson.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4788474a1864.html

The hog notes Mr Williamson's inclination towards speaking in clichés. For example: "This coming year gives us a good chance to keep our head down, stay below the radar, and continue to put one foot in front of the other." Going for the hat-trick? He forgot sticking to the knitting.

At some point the results will have to speak for themselves obviously and one would wish Williamson all the best, but the hog has to think hard to recall anybody of any substance having such a cliché-ridden turn of phrase.

macduffy
11-12-2008, 07:25 AM
Sounds like they will also keep their eye on the ball, their nose to the grindstone and their shoulder to the wheel.

A very uncomfortable position!

;)

winner69
12-12-2008, 11:06 AM
How's the stops going Belg?

Though I guess if you were using them you'd have been getting out from around $2, with perhaps the last of them away at about $1.80?

Not the most reassuring of AGM speeches, despite their great turnaround efforts in prior period.


Lizard .... well done for reading 'between the lines' of the speeches .... and that story in the paper seemed so warm and fuzzy as well ..... bad timing eh


125 long way from 200 in what is a short time frame frame

winner69
12-12-2008, 12:40 PM
FORECAST: HBY: Hellaby Holdings Ltd - Hellaby gives profit guidance
http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2125216

This'll be the first of many hitting the NZX. Nice to see HBY come out quickly and beat the rush.

NPAT

2007 - (9.8 mill)
2008 - 4.7 mill
2009 - 8-11 mill (est.)

In the right direction with falling debt but way too slow.

"As a consequence, unless there were a significant improvement in economic
conditions during the first half of 2009, the company assesses that the
Hellaby group trading surplus before interest, tax, depreciation,
amortisation and before one-off transactions (EBITDA) could be between
$30-36 million for the year to 30 June 2009. This compares to an EBITDA of
$40.6 million in the previous financial year, including results from the
discontinued operations of BBQ Factory. "

Will there be a 'significant' improvement in economic conditions? I think there will so FY might have the odd supprise.

That said - Will they keep the divie? And at what level? ... 11 cents for the last FY. If it holds at 11 cent thens market reaction at 1.20 could be a little overdone.

I must say - Mr Brynes, a director of HBY, times his buys very poorly. He did much the same with DPC where he is now acting CEO(?).

Bit misleading (naughty) using the $40.6m EBITDA as the number they use for last year when in their annual accounts they used $46.8m as the EBITDA for continuing operations

So the $30m-$36m (what a range) is really saying that EBITDA will be down by up to 36%

I think you are being bit optimisitic on your $8-$11m NPAT .... I'd say $8m absolute tops which puts your 11 cents div guess at risk.

Those $50m odd of capital notes continue to be a nusiance ..... burnt holes in their pocket and made some bad acquisitions like BBQ .... and still paying 8.5% on them is a drag on the bottom line

Lizard
12-12-2008, 04:28 PM
Bit misleading (naughty) using the $40.6m EBITDA as the number they use for last year when in their annual accounts they used $46.8m as the EBITDA for continuing operations

So the $30m-$36m (what a range) is really saying that EBITDA will be down by up to 36%

I think you are being bit optimisitic on your $8-$11m NPAT .... I'd say $8m absolute tops which puts your 11 cents div guess at risk.


Yeah, something doesn't quite compute here on my figures? Those NPAT figures from HBY look more like NPBT against those EBITDA figures (DA = $10m?), even allowing for the expected decrease in debt. Unless their bank debt interest has been revised down to 7.0% from 9.10% at the revision they had due, then I make interest payments $11.3m on an average of $78m bank debt (and $50m notes at 8.5%). Gives NPAT of $5.8m to $9.8m, tax normal?

Just as well they don't have to amortise those intangibles any more.

Not sure what covenants they have on debt. Looks tight, but suspect the banks have bigger worries elsewhere, provided they show progress on reducing debt through tight cash management. Div - I'd guess maybe 6cps if the banks don't have enough lever to intervene.

winner69
12-12-2008, 07:17 PM
Always interesting to apply the old Altman Z Score to cases like HBY when things start going wrong.

This is a solvency test that has worked well warning me of taking too much interest in popular stocks that people start thinking are cheap ..... Feltex and ION being 2 classic cases

Using 2008 financials it has score that puts it in the 'On Alert' zone. This zone is an area where one should 'Exercise Caution'

However playing around with the latest forecast it slips into the zone described as 'Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years' Beter than the 'likely to be financially embarassed' zone

Just playing around after Lizard pointed out paying $11m interest on EBITDA of $30m is a pretty heavy burden ..... especially if they continue to oay $6m in dividends a year as well

No wonder 'cash is king' is the current Williamson mantra

I think I'll leave this to you Belg

Lizard
12-12-2008, 11:39 PM
NPAT

2007 - (9.8 mill)
2008 - 4.7 mill
2009 - 8-11 mill (est.)

In the right direction with falling debt but way too slow.


Right direction? Finally got the time to check the figures excluding the items they chose to designate "one-offs" at the time they were originally reported...

2007 - $12m
2008 - $18.4m
2009 - $6m - $10m (by my calc as above)

2007 - they said EBIT from trading operations before abnormals was $28.3m. With $10.3m financing costs and tax normal, that's about $12m NPAT. 2008, accounts show "net trading surplus" (i.e. NPBT) of $24.7m. I've normalised tax to give $18.4m. They picked up a few more $'s from asset sales to boost reported.

I agree with the direction HBY are attempting to take to recover from their debt-overdose-on-an-empty-margin. Unfortunately, the economy is just not co-operating with them for now and the risks are high. Even if the economy manages to turn up in the second half, the shares still have to meander through the half year report and interim dividend announcement, so a sudden re-rate seems unlikely. With HBY010 last trading at yield of 24.25%, the message is fairly clear.

winner69
14-12-2008, 12:06 PM
Belg .... you have made the inquiring mind to rather perversely look a bit closer at HBY ... just in case there is some value in there

I am not tempted to look much further after assessing a few things. Couldn't get me excited when

- EBITDA margins are pretty low. Even the industrial part isn't much over 10 and the packaging and retail margins were pretty thin last year and they say margins are under pressure this year in spite of their aspirations to improve them. Low margins to start with make it hard to 'adjust' the business model when things get tough.

- ROIC on this years forecast is a miserable 6%-7% which is big time value destruction. To some degree this has been reflected by the market (probably more by accident than anything else) with a current market cap of $67M when compared to a book value of $90m

- If you count the capital notes as 'equity' ROE this year will be about 5%-6% ....lower than the return on imnvested capital meaning that the borrowings are costing shareholders, the leveraging is not improving their returns in other words.

The world appears to going through a period of what Schumpter called creative destruction and as history shows in those times low margin business without a lot of cash or too highly leveraged don't make it.

Not saying HBY won't make it but if you look back in history if things are as bad as many say HBY could be like many of the Nifty 50 -- those stocks in the 70's that most thpught were invulnerable and great buy and hold stocks .... many went to the wall didn't they

Don't let me talk you out of HBY belg .... you got me interested but just not the investment for me at the moment

of a

winner69
14-12-2008, 07:49 PM
With HBY010 last trading at yield of 24.25%, the message is fairly clear.

Amazing really and a sign of the times .... punters selling their $100 note (on which they get $8.50 a year on and their money back in 2 1/2 years) for less than $80 .... must think better to take the $80 now instead of much less later on.

Belg - as you are really keen on HBY you should see if anybody wants to sell their HBYIZA for a few cents .... $1.25 due on them next year but they rollover..... and you get the dividends as well .... along with the leverage

winner69
16-12-2008, 11:53 AM
Belg .... I see your sneaky buy orders going in now and again ... but 112 is really a bit cheeky isn't it

Good luck

winner69
21-02-2009, 07:45 PM
Check out the bid off spread today ... currently buy 0.60 sell 1.07 ... Suspect the result is going to even worse than forecast! ... Another company coming up with a rights issue methinks.


See somebody sold 300 shares the other day taking the price down to 90 and the last bid buy 72 sell 80 .... ouch if oyu want out before the half year

A few trades going through on the 2011 capital notes .... currently 30% yield ... If you believe in the HBY story what a price eh .... but maybe a real sign of trouble (Belg is that you offering to take them off peoples hands at $34 ... ha ha)

The last guidance HBY gave was a full year figure so hard to say if H1 will meet expactation or not .... so what they say for the full year is going to be guts of the announcement along with comment about their debt situation ....imagine what'll happen if they say they are talking to their bankers.

Hard to think that the situation is nay brighter than it was back in December when they last gave an update ..... next Thursday could be a day of action

winner69
22-02-2009, 09:48 AM
Geez I wish these guys had taken belgie's advice years ago and cancelled the divie until debt was under control. I suspect they didn't because the biggest shareholders had other ideas. Now those shareholders are threatening the viability of the whole company! Bad mgts IMNSHO!

Its the biggest shareholder (not shareholders) that from reports has wanted big dividends.

Like over 2006 and 2007 operating cash flow was $21m but cash dividends paid out were $27m .... during a time when capital requirements (even if some were ill founded) were high. They did cut back a bit last year

Whatever Thursday will be interesting ... isn't that when PGW do something as well

winner69
22-02-2009, 11:23 AM
I thought it was singular but couldn't be bothered pulling out the report to check. Thanks Win.

And Contact Tues. Going to be an ugly week.

The 30% man has fingers in many pies ..... and ones that you are have been interested in the past as well. Somebody did a rave in one of the papers a year or so ago that HBY dividends came in handy for a land developer ... cash wise

Even so he has done well out of HBY ... getting his share for about $5m many years ago ... he's done well

winner69
22-02-2009, 12:41 PM
If things go to plan HBY said bank debt will be about $70m by June which isn't all that bad .... unless sales and margins have taken an even worse dive than expected

Rights issue only conjecture ... doubt if Green would want to front up with too much cash so my guess is they will just hope all will come right and convince the banks not to worry ..... even though all the ratios are starting to look a bit sad

Borrowings at $85m (?) and Capital Notes at $50m against a market cap of $45m is sick .... equity of $90m. The $14m interest bill to be paid of EBITDA of say $30m is also stretching things a bit too

If they were to raise some more capital the current shareprice doesn't help does it and with 50 million shares on issue even a 1 for 1 at 90 cents only raises $45m .... hands getting tied a bit eh ..... even a 1 for 2 at 80 cents only raises $20m and even then shareholders would be mightily pissed off. You would have to think that another notes issue is out of the question ... with all this in mind thats why I think they will try to ride it out ..... otherwise disaster ... esp if they talk about a cornerstone investor eh

Best bet is for all sharetraders to go out and buy a couple of pairs of shoes from Hannahs and then go and buy a forklift to move the pipes into the trench dug with the new excavator

You wanting a real disaster here belg so you can get some more really cheap shares

winner69
23-02-2009, 07:55 PM
That seller couldn't wait and took the 70 cents (youR offer?)

Shareprice at 70 cents makes a rights issue even harder to come up with an attractive offer ..... but I don't think Green would be too happy to front up with more cash unless he really needs to

market cap of HBY now only $35m .... stupid how a few shares changing hands can wipe so much off the market cap eh

Come on Thursday

winner69
12-03-2009, 02:38 PM
Hoping somebody puts in a sell at market order today are you belg

32 cents is a bit cheeky .... but then somebody just sold some at 40

winner69
26-03-2009, 12:29 PM
Up 40% odd today

777
26-03-2009, 12:33 PM
I think someone just had an order at "market". 500 shares at 65 cents is only $325. Minimum brokerage of $30 odd adds another 6 cents a share. Not a good deal.

winner69
26-03-2009, 12:39 PM
I think someone just had an order at "market". 500 shares at 65 cents is only $325. Minimum brokerage of $30 odd adds another 6 cents a share. Not a good deal.

Prob Belg setting up his exit at good prices

Balance
25-04-2009, 08:42 AM
Given the somewhat precarious nature of HBY's finances it would be great if the company tooks the time to keep the market informed. Basically - its now two months since the HY and just 6 months before the bank makes the call as to whether their debt is rolled over.

SP is morribund around the 50c level indicating some faith in the 5mil NPAT guidance.
Interesting turnover in HBY010. Could be good buy at 35% ;)

BTW can anyone show me how HBY calaculated the NTA figure of 1.84 in the HY? This is still bugging me ...

Not in the same league as NPX as a company. Times like these a company like HBY spends too much time on shoring up its lousy businesses. Nopt a good investment imho.

winner69
25-04-2009, 01:51 PM
BTW can anyone show me how HBY calaculated the NTA figure of 1.84 in the HY? This is still bugging me ...

Exactly what it says Belg .... Net Assets )divided ny the number of shares) ...
Net Assets being the same as Equity or Book Value .... as per the Dec balance sheet which shows $93.126m

Funny thing is if it weren't for for 'Movement in cash flow hedge reserve' this wouldn't have gone up over the last year or so ...... but hey don't ruin a good story.

Does inlcude the $57m odd showing as Intangible Assets ..... mostly picked up from previous acquisitions. The $57m includes $20m Automotive division / Footwear and $7m Packaging

You probably look at NTA eh Belg ..... which Net Tangible Asset (exc the intangibles) which is about 71 cents

Glad HBY are proud that book value is increasing ..... they obviously don't get it that with a market value of about $25m the market has already priced that they are going to destroy $70m of value in the future (value in this case being future operating profits below their cost of capital)

But then again being pompous as they are the directors probably believe the market is completely and utterly wrong .... and that HBY should be at least $2,00 ..... wonder whose rght?

macduffy
26-04-2009, 07:28 AM
Personally, I wouldn't give too much credence to any NTA number just now. In more "normal" times one might have a reasonable idea of what the component pieces of a company might sell for in a break-up and sale. In today's circumstances it's anyone's guess what a forced sale would bring.

winner69
26-04-2009, 08:18 AM
... but then again Belg the Net Assets or Book value is made up of the $20m actual capital put in plus retained earnings of $70m odd ... with the hedging reserve that gives you the $1.94 per share

So it is 'real' shareholder money (ie what they put in and what they have kept of the profits over the the years)

Just seems that the market thinks they have recently lost all this hard earned dosh

macduffy
26-04-2009, 09:02 AM
....but it's still just a "book" value which may or may not reflect the realisable value of the assets. This may not matter much in an ongoing business but is critical in a break-up and sale.

Corporate
26-04-2009, 09:07 AM
This is the bit that got me. I've never, ever, calculated NTA or 'net asset backing' as they refer to it as with any intangibles whatsoever - whether inherited through aquisition or otherwise. It seems to me to be just plain wrong to include these 'book' numbers when each number is historical and not backed up by current (or potentially future) performance. Any accountants care to comment?


Belgarion - Goodwill is an intangible asset and must be tested for impairment annually. Usually this is a NPV calculation of future cashflows.

scamper
09-06-2009, 10:10 PM
woof woof belg, this is scamper at the 11 pm barking.
i see that some clever sods may have made 100% with the hby dog over the last 3 months.
good doggie indeed.
and the chart is finally beginning to look good -- the 8-month accelerated downtrend must be very close to broken, and the 30-day MA is about to break up through the 90-day.
trouble is, when a share has performed so well so recently, it seems a bit daft to buy in after such a stunning run. It's surely due for some profit taking.
you have been brave indeed -- or extremely foolhardy!
pleased it's worked for you. woof and out.

New Jersey girl
10-06-2009, 06:26 AM
The aspect of hellaby that would be most amusing if not for the sums involved is how the self-described financial experts and investment bankers who run the financial side of the business nearly wrecked it despite owning some really nice businesses, particularly on the automotive side. As a decade long small holder (initially in at the bargain price of $1.93) I have doubled up at 0.50, but didn't have the nerve to buy more at what should be utter bargain prices because of the ineptitude of the financial directors. I still believe there is a reliable dividend paying $3 share lurking here, except for financial incompetence.

The contrast with Rangatira is instructive. The latter has avoided debt, avoided the limelight, and managed the global downturn very well, despite having a reasonably similar business model. I bet their managers get paid less, though.

In any case, Mr Belgarion, I welcome your posts on hellaby and other subjects, so keep them coming.

winner69
15-06-2009, 06:42 PM
Well done belg .... why stop at 1.20

The head honchos took a punt that things would look brighter and didn't panic with any capital raising and all that worry about there debt has gone away and it looks like all the way to over $2 for the HBY shareprice

Amazing now the world is a brighter place with no problems on the horizon .... even the ASX had a bad day but still closes above 4,000 so things must be OK

With you holding s worth even more maybe a bit more leverage eh

macduffy
16-06-2009, 04:37 PM
HBY defies the market fall today and rises 6c.

As a minor shareholder in HBY, having sold most of my shares several years ago, I'm intrigued that this company continues to move against the market trend.
What's the story, belgarion?

(Or anyone else?)

:)

Stranger_Danger
16-06-2009, 04:57 PM
I'll go against the trend - the company is a dog, the next announcement will be a shocker.

i_claudius
17-06-2009, 03:38 PM
Thanks Belg...i'm enjoying your commentaries.

I've talked to 2 different brokers in the last week or so asking for an appraisal of HBY and they dont want to know..too small to cover.Your summation of its state and prospects has been just the snapshot i've been seeking.

And NJG,I agree with your comments entirely.As a long term holder of HBY and Rangitira I've been struck by the difference in quality and effectiveness of their management.

I can't put a value on HBY.My concern about it's debt has abated.
In a low/no interest environment it's probably going to attract spec value buyers.

Are the recent Director & Officers" purchases that significant? They're not large sums..not that much to impress me as a strong vote of confidence.


Next HBY report is going to have to be good.Can't help but think this one has to have a capital raising of some form.

Bobcat.
18-06-2009, 10:31 AM
Like earlier posters, I too bought some around $1.80 a year ago thinking it was trending up. Didn't bother with a stop-loss and later regretted it. Bought a lot more at 46c to give me an average price of around 80c...which would be fine if I was still holding but.....

One day a few months ago, in a moment of weakness, I glanced at an ASB Brokers recommendations web page (never again!). They had HBY as the only stock rated with an "AVOID". That was enough to turn me nervous on any apparent weakness above 60c and so I dumped the lot taking a 30% hit...about a month before it climbed to the dizzy heights it's at now (or rather was at yesterday!).

Lessons learned: check the fundamentals, observe the charts, ignore the brokers and time my entry...then implement a well disciplined selling strategy.

Bobcat.
18-06-2009, 05:39 PM
Belg.
Massive debt on HBY's books put the shivers up my spine holding for too long, especially after seeing the impact of bank covenant breaches elsewhere. Don't think for a moment that this puppy has its neck out of the woods.
BC

macduffy
19-06-2009, 03:10 PM
Belg.
Massive debt on HBY's books put the shivers up my spine holding for too long, especially after seeing the impact of bank covenant breaches elsewhere. Don't think for a moment that this puppy has its neck out of the woods.
BC

Yes, it's curious how the HBY SP continues to strengthen despite its debt problems and the current economic situation.
A lot of other companies' bank covenant breaches have been a result of foreign currency borrowings blowing out in NZD terms when the NZD weakened a few months ago. HBY doesn't appear to have that problem if ....

" The carrying accounts of the Group's borrowings are denominated in NZD, with the exception of trade loans that are predominantly denominated in JPY. "

... means what I think it does!

It will be interesting to see in due course how much headway the company has made this year in its stated aim to reduce its gearing " from 60% to 50% over the medium term."

;)

Balance
20-06-2009, 08:54 AM
GPG going for a break-up of this group?

New Jersey girl
21-06-2009, 06:25 AM
Maybe the directors know the outcome of their plan to sue to the sellers of BBQ factory for selling them a lemon......

winner69
01-07-2009, 01:46 PM
The question has to be asked - if it was so easy to reduce debt and still function well - why havent they done this earlier?

There is more than meets the eye here - I'd say 'lipstick on a pig'. The company is not making any money at the moment - ......

...... for no other reason than no mention of about trading performance I tend to agree smokin

Any good news and you would think that they would have said something eh (quick enough off the mark re the debt reduction weren't they) ..... not a whisper except we will tell you on August 17th .... maybe no news is good news (just maybe)

winner69
01-07-2009, 02:27 PM
Punters obviously don't have the same view as us smokin .... HBY shareprice sheer smokin along and up 11%

Must be Belg averaging up now the shareprice is on the rsie after averaging down for so long

macduffy
02-07-2009, 07:50 AM
I think Bruce Sheppard has got this right.

What happened to continuous disclosure as all this debt was being paid down and directors were buying shares?
John Williamson's explanation that the debt position was "only known at the year-end date of June 30" just doesn't wash. Unless we're talking about the exact dollar amount, that is!

:rolleyes:

winner69
02-07-2009, 08:08 AM
We prob misreading this smokin ..... everythings OK

Today people will catchup with the news .... Macquaries will come out with an update with revised target over $2 and an outperform

And the buyesr back in the market and hey presto HBY shareprice $2 by end of the week

We can't win them all smokin

COLIN
02-07-2009, 10:24 AM
Well, my scavenging has been rewarded. Have taken advantage of the euphoria surrounding HBY and have cashed in my HBY010 (bought mid-April at a yield of 35%) for a "modest" capital gain of 50%. Only trouble is that because this investment is classed as a "financial arrangement" by the IRD I will have to pay tax on the gain. Pity, but it has still been one of my more profitable adventures over the past few months.
So take heart, my friends, there is still money to be made in this market.
(Now, don't ask me about my duds!)
Coming back to HBY, I do tend to agree that some (relatively few) buyers are getting a bit carried away with this one at the moment, but I do believe that Williamson seems to be a good operator. There are also other sections of the retail sector which offer good buying opportunities at the moment - I'm not going to tell you which ones until I have bought into some!

winner69
04-07-2009, 09:41 AM
See Aspect Huntly have CEASED covering HBY .. reason HBY has no economic moat ... pretty damming - buts it that attitude from the experts that make the likes of HBY so attractive to Belg (and maybe Colin)

(Quote) We are dropping coverage on the stock. While the company seems to be heading in the right direction from a debt perspective we think the businesses the company operates in have no economic moat. Returns have improved over last year thanks to operational improvements but they are well below the firms cost of capital. We feel it is better to focus on quality names that are generating higher returns on capital due to their position in the industry and that might be of interest to investors

COLIN
04-07-2009, 12:48 PM
See Aspect Huntly have CEASED covering HBY .. reason HBY has no economic moat ... pretty damming - buts it that attitude from the experts that make the likes of HBY so attractive to Belg (and maybe Colin)


No W69, not me.
My recent involvement with HBY was merely to take advantage of a situational opportunity with the subordinated bonds (HBY010) which seemed to be trading at an unjustified discount, given the rising interest in the ordinaries. Having now sold those bonds I have no further interest in HBY, given the rather unattractive nature of their portfolio. I agree with Aspect Huntly that there seem to be better opportunities elsewhere.

kizame
23-08-2009, 11:36 AM
Big volume (for them) on Friday,and the stock is still in an uptrend.
Hmmn will be interesting.

winner69
27-08-2009, 02:13 PM
No real surprises there belg eh ... except for clearing BBQ Factory of the books once and for all

How do you value this going forward .... things might be a struggle for a while yet but even $10m profit next year would sort of say 200-220 a reasonable price

Get back to profits they were making a few years ago and 400 possible .... but I doubt many NZ companies will be making 2006 / 2007 profits for some time ... things have changed

Whatever you would have think that the shareprice will be higher than 140 this time next year .... makes that 40 cents earlier this year really really cheap ... heap you still have them belg

POSSUM THE CAT
30-08-2009, 12:28 PM
Belgarion does that mean they have a large holding they wish to sell but not cheeky enough to put a buy recommendation on them. I am always suspicious of brokers ratings

modandm
31-08-2009, 03:36 PM
nice to see some shareholders getting some relief on this stock in the last month or so.

however this company has been a dog for a long time, i definaltely think it will be at $1 before $2.

What prior posts havent included is the telling comment in the management commentary that green shoots are yet to be seen by the businesses. I believe HBY's companies (not all) are not good investments on thier own, and why pay for a diversified company when one can diversify themselves and avoid the management costs. There is no evidence to suggest that HBY management ane any better at picking co than you or I infact quite the opposite. The 5 year return is -25% for god sake

looking at the eps forcast of 17c ps FY10 i think all the risk is to the downside. What if there is no recovery for HBY co's and eps stays at 10cps... you will be holding a company on a pe of 10-15 with a diversified portfolio of underperforming companies and little growth prospects.:eek:


There are much better investments to be made (meduim to long term) than this dog. I'd be selling today on the runup and be glad to have it off my back

macduffy
31-08-2009, 06:25 PM
I agree with you, belg, that now is not the time to be selling HBY.

But apart from the old Andrews and Beaven businesses, the rest of the portfolio doesn't strike me as being "best of class" and I think they might struggle to make headway from here on. So I'll be watching closely for signs of weakness and at that point will probably quit the last of my shares.

;)

Glendoonie
01-09-2009, 10:59 AM
I agree with you, belg, that now is not the time to be selling HBY.

But apart from the old Andrews and Beaven businesses, the rest of the portfolio doesn't strike me as being "best of class" and I think they might struggle to make headway from here on.

So now is not the time to be selling HBY, but say one has to because one is short of dosh? Sell half at fire-sale prices? Taihoa and see what happens to the sp? What do I do?

G

winner69
06-11-2009, 06:17 AM
The worst is over with the GFC and sentiment has changed for the positive

If HBY made comments like they came out with yesterday a few months ago the share price would have tumbled .... but these days saying the green shoots weren't that green and that they will make less this half year than last year its all OK .... just wait a bit longer and profits will flow

Maybe back to 200 again belg

Zito
10-11-2009, 08:41 AM
Yes, technically looking very weak as well. HBY has fired off a number of sell signals over the past couple of weeks. Happy to be out.

Phaedrus
17-11-2009, 08:37 AM
HBY has fired off a number of sell signals over the past couple of weeks. Happy to be out.You and me both, Zito. Since volume precedes price, volume based indicators are usually the first to fire when a stock starts falling. I utilise the OBV indicator so much that some of you might think that it is the only Price/Volume indicator on the planet. It might be the simplest and the easiest to understand (that's why I like it!) but it is not invariably the best. You can see from the attached chart that in this instance, the Price Volume Trend indicator gave both an earlier Buy signal and an earlier Sell signal, each firing over 2 weeks before the OBV did. Interestingly enough this 2 week "advantage" made little or no difference to the actual entry and exit prices.

The chart also provides a nice clear illustration of how the characteristics of a trailing stop differ from those of trend indicators. No matter how long HBY tracks sideways, the Trailing Stop will not signal an exit whereas all trend indicators will be triggered sooner or later. This is a reason why Trailing Stops are usually the last signal to fire. Patient investors that are happy to hold stocks that are in trading ranges (regardless of how long they run) use Trailing Stops whereas the less forgiving trader would use more active indicators, quitting the stock as soon as it went off the boil.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/HBY1117.gif

Glendoonie
10-12-2009, 09:39 AM
Hellaby up 39 cents????? Low volume, but what's going on?

777
10-12-2009, 09:41 AM
Cock up I think. Trade was 2,000 at 1.70.

Glendoonie
10-12-2009, 10:13 AM
Cock up I think. Trade was 2,000 at 1.70.
You're right on the money. A Christmas cock-up perhaps? I'll calm down now. HBY sp fluctuation looks as though it's business as usual.

shambles
08-01-2010, 10:36 AM
Not much action here for a while, must be ready for a bit of direction...

Up I'm thinking!

macduffy
11-02-2010, 05:31 PM
Wow ... Depth shows no bids whatsoever! Maybe time for some fun and see whether any brokers will accept a bid for 10 cents :) ... Or maybe I could drop some using an "at Market" sell order :)

BTW ... Have I said I think HBY may be overvalued at 1.60? ;)

Should I meet your "At market" Sell order with a bid at 15C?

;)

Lizard
28-02-2010, 08:53 AM
Belg, I just got time for a look at the HY. It is a bit disappointing to see that EBIT is down on pcp - even with the reduced debt, ebit cover looks very low. I can't see how this would have survived the GFC if it wasn't for all those capital notes giving the bankers a nice buffer.

Any calculation of the share price has to allow for what happens to those capital notes in 15 months time. It seems unlikely HBY would opt to redeem these (or any of these) for cash so either need to offer investors an attractive interest rate to remain invested (perhaps somewhere between current coupon of 8.5% and currently traded HBY010 rate of over 12%) or face massive conversion to equity. The conversion rate is 95% of the VWAP (i.e. 5% discount) over 20 days prior to the "day 5" prior to conversion date - so if I've read that correctly, VWAP over 21 May 2011 - 10 Jun 2011. As you can imagine, given the current market cap is $74m and there are $50m of convertible notes, there is the potential for this to get a little messy.

I would think they will need to really prove up some good returns over the next 12 month period to avoid going into a share price death-spiral on conversion of the notes. Mind you there has to be a reasonable chance they will achieve this and manage the process successfully, but I think there'll be a bit of risk premium built in to the share price around this issue. Hopefully they can use a dividend to help put a baseline under the share price, although going on a HY of 3cps, the baseline would look to be well below current price.

Perhaps I'm over-reading this - the two analysts reports I've looked through make no mention of the conversion and seem to assume in their figures that the notes roll over at the current interest rate. Still, it seems to me that the messier scenarios can't be ignored completely. Obviously, HBY are already thinking this through and I suspect the mention of capital raising (hinting at using the funds for acquisitions) may be more directed at having the funds available to manage their way through the rollover/conversion process.

Btw, how did you calculate your projected FY NPAT of $10-$15m?

percy
28-02-2010, 09:23 AM
hby was very successfully driven by tor borren.since his retirement others have tried but never succeded.i would be very careful letting them have more of your money.shoes have been the ruin of many investor from russell goward to michael hill.

PhaedrusFollower
28-04-2010, 02:35 PM
Anyone have any theories why HBY rose today against the market?

Lizard
01-06-2010, 05:47 PM
What is it with HBY at present? Do the directors draw straws each week to see whose turn it is to sit on the bid?

Normally I'd take this level of director buying as pretty positive, but something doesn't quite gel here... has the feeling of taking turns to defend...

zigzag
06-06-2010, 07:18 PM
Lizard says - something doesn't quite gel here.
Belgarion says - something is up.

Holy Toledo - the rumours are coming thick and fast. I can barely keep up. Maybe you guys are more intuitive than me, or perhaps you know something i don't. Then again we could take insider buying at face value and see it as a good sign. It's getting nearer to June 30 balance date so the inference could be that things are on course, as per previous guidance.

Lizard
07-06-2010, 08:38 AM
And, of course, question no. 3 - do they have firm plans for raising new equity (as flagged at half year)?

Lizard
07-06-2010, 09:11 AM
Then again we could take insider buying at face value and see it as a good sign.

Yes, you may well be right. I just find it unusual to see directors in a bit of a bidding war for the shares without managing to convince the institutions.

I also agree with Belgarion - the possibility exists of second-half profit coming in at around $9m. Or twice that. Or nothing. The scenarios are pretty wide open and the outcome for the share price could be just as extreme.

Given the optimism of the buying directors, perhaps the $10m FY NPAT is about right - but even then, taking into account the debt and possible options represented, I value at $1.60. Considering the possible downside risks, I therefore don't find HBY attractive at current prices. But I can imagine that a FY announcement of that nature might inspire a flurry of buying. And if directors are going to protect the downside by staying on the bid, then perhaps there's a spec trade here.

Btw, I note the most significant purchases by directors are the ones Hugh Green is making of the capital notes. Which, to my mind, seems the more sensible call for a long term play.

zigzag
07-06-2010, 11:02 AM
And, of course, question no. 3 - do they have firm plans for raising new equity (as flagged at half year)?

If they already had firm plans to raise new equity, I'm sure insiders would not be able to buy without making an announcement.

Lizard
07-07-2010, 09:40 AM
Bank debt down to $25m. That seems a huge slash on HY with reduction of $21m?

Also commitment to at least partially repaying the capital notes, so that negates a potential risk there.

Might be the "all clear" signal with that announcement?

winner69
07-07-2010, 09:44 AM
Doesn't sound like any profit surprises ..... up or down

Lizard
07-07-2010, 09:57 AM
Doesn't sound like any profit surprises ..... up or down

What's the expectation? I can't find guidance from the company. Two brokers I can find have NPAT at $9.6m and $9.8m, with target prices of $2.20 and $2.29 respectively. Bit of a gap from the $1.60 current. Main advantage from today is downside risk reduced (i.e. not likely to see massive dilution from the cap notes and a death spiral on the share price for equity holders.). Plus, still got to be optimistic that at least some of the cash used to pay down debt has come from strong profits second half.

Still some hurdles for HBY and not fooled that it's suddenly a great business. But it's an impressive story - one of the NZX's most indebted companies going into the GFC and survived without dilution so far. I, for one, did not believe they would manage that.

Phaedrus
07-07-2010, 10:50 AM
This chart includes the latest sale at $1.60 - the Close may be different.

HBY's long trading range continues.
There are no Bullish or Bearish oscillator divergences warning of imminent change.
The OBV continues to rise slowly.
HBY is being accumulated.
When the breakout eventually comes, it is more likely to be up rather than down.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/HBY77.gif

Active investors will be very pleased that they quit this stock last October - and stayed out.
"Buy and Hold" investors will be pleased that they hung in there.
Short-term traders might have made a few cents out of the trading range.

Something for everyone!

macduffy
07-07-2010, 11:46 AM
It seems that there was a good reason for directors' confidence, expressed in their buying in recent months.

Would have to expect a solid result announcement soon!

percy
07-07-2010, 11:52 AM
What's the expectation? I can't find guidance from the company. Two brokers I can find have NPAT at $9.6m and $9.8m, with target prices of $2.20 and $2.29 respectively. Bit of a gap from the $1.60 current. Main advantage from today is downside risk reduced (i.e. not likely to see massive dilution from the cap notes and a death spiral on the share price for equity holders.). Plus, still got to be optimistic that at least some of the cash used to pay down debt has come from strong profits second half.

Still some hurdles for HBY and not fooled that it's suddenly a great business. But it's an impressive story - one of the NZX's most indebted companies going into the GFC and survived without dilution so far. I, for one, did not believe they would manage that.

I thought the announcement was very positive.Do agree it is not suddenley a great business.

Lizard
07-07-2010, 03:01 PM
T
Active investors will be very pleased that they quit this stock last October - and stayed out.
"Buy and Hold" investors will be pleased that they hung in there.
Short-term traders might have made a few cents out of the trading range.


Now if those active investors had been able to swap into the HBY010, they'd have carried on quite nicely!

Lizard
07-07-2010, 03:12 PM
I did. W69 said I should :P

Ah, quick to spot your cue... :)

h2so4
07-07-2010, 04:44 PM
Plus, still got to be optimistic that at least some of the cash used to pay down debt has come from strong profits second half.



My guess is that it has come from further reductions in working capital?

Lizard
07-07-2010, 05:12 PM
Yes, a good amount of it will have.

Lizard
08-07-2010, 07:14 AM
What's the expectation? I can't find guidance from the company. Two brokers I can find have NPAT at $9.6m and $9.8m, with target prices of $2.20 and $2.29 respectively.

One just raised their target price by 50cps on yesterdays announcement. Though still point to the catalyst for a re-rate as being the full year result. But with behaviour of overseas markets last night, there might be some more serious bidding on HBY today? Surely good for a spec trade through to at least the $1.90 mark prior to FY result/26 August? And possibly a longer hold.

Phaedrus
09-07-2010, 12:04 PM
Nice chart Phaedrus. But once again, one that fails to tell the whole story. True enough. Here is a nasty one that does!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/HBY79b.gif


Only the very brave (basically fundies) got in feb/march/april/may of 09 when there was any real volume to be had.Nonsense. In March/April/May technical buy signals were firing left, right and centre. The extra volume around that time was probably TA's acting on these signals. Fundies were buying all the way down as per the chart!

Sorry to use you as an example here Belg, but there are things that we can all learn from such a chart.
(1) Valuations mean little unless/until the market agrees with them.
(2) Buying downtrending stocks is NOT a good idea.
(3) Averaging down (adding to a losing investment) is not to be recommended.
(4) Market sentiment rules!

COLIN
09-07-2010, 04:30 PM
Sorry to use you as an example here Belg, but there are things that we can all learn from such a chart.
(1) Valuations mean little unless/until the market agrees with them.
(2) Buying downtrending stocks is NOT a good idea.
(3) Averaging down (adding to a losing investment) is not to be recommended.
(4) Market sentiment rules!

These are hard lessons to learn, Phaedrus (Nemesis!). Took me many years to come to these realisations.

Cheers.

Lizard
10-07-2010, 10:24 AM
One thing that amazes me about HBY... with footwear as their largest revenue division, why is there not a single woman director on the seven-member Board?

Who buys the most shoes in your household??? :eek2:

Lizard
10-07-2010, 11:54 AM
You must be HUGE Belg! I didn't have any trouble getting all I wanted on the open at $1.60 after that announcement. My tastes are quite modest...

percy
10-07-2010, 01:16 PM
You must be HUGE Belg! I didn't have any trouble getting all I wanted on the open at $1.60 after that announcement. My tastes are quite modest...

I bet you would have enjoyed filling Lizard's order at $1.60 Balance.Hope Lizard is not selling HBY at 63 cents.

Lizard
10-07-2010, 01:26 PM
Haha, thanks Percy! I wondered where that post had gone... must have had two screens open at once....

Have had it moved here (from DIL thread) to avoid confusion!

winner69
10-07-2010, 01:47 PM
You must be HUGE Belg! I didn't have any trouble getting all I wanted on the open at $1.60 after that announcement. My tastes are quite modest...

The difference though Liz is that you don't build pyramids

Phaedrus
12-07-2010, 08:06 AM
Confucius say :- Buying downtrending stocks is foolhardy - borrowing money to buy downtrending stocks, more so.

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

h2so4
12-07-2010, 08:09 AM
Confucius say :- Buying downtrending stocks is foolhardy - borrowing money to buy downtrending stocks, more so.

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

He also said Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it.

h2so4
12-07-2010, 03:31 PM
Confucius say :- Buying downtrending stocks is foolhardy - borrowing money to buy downtrending stocks, more so.

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

You are not alone P

It seems Buffett has the same trouble trying to covince people to buy low.
With the idea of buying low, Warren Buffett made the following comment,

“With some, the idea of buying dollar bills for forty cents takes, and with some it doesn’t take. It’s like an inoculation. It’s extraordinary to me. If it doesn’t grab them right away, I find that you can talk to them for years and show them records–and it just doesn’t make any difference. I’ve never seen anyone who became a convert over a ten-year period with this approach. It’s always instant recognition or nothing. Whatever it is, I’ve never understood it.”

Phaedrus
13-07-2010, 02:00 PM
HBY is one of my biggest holds on the NZX making up about 1/5 of my portfolio. Are you on the HBY top 20 shareholder list Belg? I can't see you there. Not that that in itself means very much of course - just $120,000 invested when those buy signals were firing would have got you on.


As I've noted continuously on this thread (and which Ph chooses not to put on his loverly graph) ... liquidity has been pathetic.HBY is relatively lightly traded, but liquidity is not an insurmountable problem especially when viewed in terms of the companies capitalisation. Half of its shares are tightly held by entities like ACC, Castle Investments and other top 20 shareholders, but over 8% of the rest changed hands during March/April and May.


Given the low liquidity, if I had to sell, the number I have represents something of a risk. Nonsense. Any holding too small to get you onto the top 20 list would not take long to sell. There is no point in mentioning access to a "1 mil plus revolving credit facility" when you haven't spent anything like that much on HBY - and indeed couldn't, even if you wanted to.


People forget that getting the millions of a stock in the first place means buying when the majority are selling, frequently into downtrends and staying below the radar.Volumes were low as HBY was being distributed during that long downtrend. Small players were selling to very small players.
Belg, big buyers can't stay "below the radar". Any big buying is plainly evident for all to see. You simply cannot be a big buyer and not move the market. This is especially true with small companies like HBY.


You can't make millions holding just a few hundred thousand shares! Right - and a few hundred thousand HBY shares will put you in the top 20 shareholders list. Sooooooooooo.....you can't make millions with HBY! This is most definately NOT a stock for big players.


You say the TA signals fired very obviously and that TA'ers would have been in like flynn. You must have been in and grabbed a few. How many did you get? I had no difficulty whatsoever getting all that I wanted. Over 2 million shares changed hands during March/April/May while the TA buy signals were firing.


Would love to see Ph working with 100 million tho.Get a grip Belg - that's double the number of shares on the register!!!!

Nuts
28-07-2010, 09:10 PM
JC bought 600000 in ppg recently and the market didnt move a cent , so it seems to me they can buy into HB and not move the price ??? or am i off the beam ???

Lizard
26-08-2010, 01:15 PM
Haha here's the equity raising - 3:7 rights at $1.30. Forbar underwritten.

(Is that the fruits of the new investments guy's labour, Belg?)

Lizard
26-08-2010, 02:31 PM
Should point out though that shareholders are entitled to apply for oversubscriptions at that price. Should be instant profits on any extras, so could be a good one to pick up a handful now and apply for as many extras as you can afford (just in case Belg doesn't have the cash to take up all of his share.... ;))

(record date 8 September, so best check when they trade ex-rights before buying - probably have till the 5th?).

zigzag
26-08-2010, 03:01 PM
Haha here's the equity raising - 3:7 rights at $1.30. Forbar underwritten.

(Is that the fruits of the new investments guy's labour, Belg?)

Belgarian's so-called new guy only started in August, as in this month. I think Belg. should cut him some slack. As for the rights issue. Jeez, I've only just got my head around WDT asking for ten thousand bucks and now this. I'm not Warren Buffett or Nelson Rockafeller, but all the same I don't want to pass this one up. I guess I've got about a month to sort something out.

Lizard
26-08-2010, 05:15 PM
What is clear though, HBY have their sights on something(s) (and its not just retiring the notes! ... Even though some big holders will just convert.).

I don't think they are planning to give noteholders the right to convert?

$28.4m of new equity will be just what they need to pay down the $50m of notes (along with cashflows in the 12 months and perhaps a tad more bank debt).

Glad you can pick up the cheap shares, Belg. Probably works out okay if you can. And probably a bit of liquidity in the rights anyway, so should be saleable.

I think HBY have shown exemplary strategy here. Just need to figure out what the shares are worth post-raising to decide what to do.

Lizard
26-08-2010, 09:16 PM
Just got back for another look. There is a line in the report that perhaps hints at them redeeming the notes earlier rather than later (i.e once they have the rights issue sorted). Also mentioned renew, so perhaps they will try and offer to roll half over at similar return to current 8.5%? Faced with a choice of redeeming and sticking in the bank vs a rollover, might be enough bondholders willing to go another round?

That would then mean they could be certain of funds for the "at least one" bolt on acquisition they intend to make this year. Hopefully not another BBQ factory - I'm sure there is plenty of value around in businesses right now, so at least might be a good time to buy. Though would think they'd have enough on their hands to get equipment sales and footwear ticking over at potential without the distractions of additional business ventures.

At $1.87 buy and taking up all rights, the shares effectively cost $1.70. After which, I figure they're probably worth about $2.10 tops for now. After that, will need to see some more improvements...(preferably in all of our shoe-buying habits!)

percy
27-08-2010, 08:11 AM
Hi Lizard.
Your EMB would be a good fit with automotive division.

percy
27-08-2010, 11:22 AM
EMB? Which thread?

On ASX forum about 7th one down,EMB

zigzag
29-08-2010, 09:16 AM
Belg. Where did you get your figure of 78 mill. I make it 73 mill. This would give an eps of about 17c, and at a PE of a conservative 10 and you get 1.70.

Lizard
30-08-2010, 06:38 AM
Does anyone know whether this'll get HBY back in the NZ50?

From what I can see on the index, the market cap cut-off currently seems to sit around $170m, so HBY in looks unlikely for a while longer.

Next to fall out on current trends might be NZX itself ($171m market cap) - maybe don't expect any changes in a hurry! Especially as there is a bit of a gap down to possible next contender for an entry - SKL at market cap $155m.

Lizard
30-08-2010, 08:13 AM
On second look, ABA might be the next in line to fall out - it only has market cap of $107m.

Silverlight
30-08-2010, 09:42 AM
The NZX index methodology is based on free-float market Cap and stock liquidity, Castle Investments holding (30.5%) is not included in the market cap.

The free float is determined by excluding blocks of shares greater than 20% and blocks between 5% and 20%, which are considered strategic.

Silverlight
30-08-2010, 12:45 PM
Belg, check ABA's annaul report pages 84 -85 (attached), they have 31.4% held, that could be classed as strategic.

The other thing you need to note, is to break into the 50, you have to be number 45 or better, not just beat number 50.

To fall out of the 50 you need to be number 54 or worse.

These are the bottom 5 they need to beat CAV, TLS, NZX, NZS, ABA.

zigzag
31-08-2010, 02:40 PM
Hi Liz, where did you pick up that tidbit of info?

I've been rooting around for an official source and can't find that absolutely delicious bit of info that will make Forbars seeth with fury ;).

Belg. If you haven't already found it, look in the NZX announcement for the full year. There are 6 pdf files, and one is about the cap. raising. The info. you want is in there.

macduffy
01-09-2010, 12:01 PM
Heaven forbid!

But I think I can see your tongue in your cheek, belg!

zigzag
01-09-2010, 12:17 PM
Heaven forbid!

But I think I can see your tongue in your cheek, belg!

I really hope he is joking. Belg - please tell us your not serious.

percy
01-09-2010, 04:29 PM
Yeah, I did have my tongue firmly in my cheek.

I don't believe any of HBY current businesses would benefit from providing finance to their customers (although could be wrong).

Shoes? Nope.
Packaging? Probably not.
Eqipment? Maybe.
Automotive? Maybe.

Thank goodness for that.I thought you you may have put your foot in it.A case of foot and mouth that may have gone with the shoes.

zigzag
06-09-2010, 02:55 PM
Right tradable today ... Who was the wally that bought the heads at 2:00? (Or maybe not a wally - just not something I'd do. ;) )

Looks like another wally paid 2.07. One of the weekend papers published some broker forecasts for HBY. Average of three forecasts was around 14 mill. That is 19c a share including the new shares, which would equate to 2.28 on a PE of 12. Maybe he wasn't such a wally afterall.

macduffy
06-09-2010, 04:53 PM
Easy, now, belg.

As a holder, I'd rather you didn't draw attention to the oversubscription thing!

Jaa
29-09-2010, 03:34 PM
My pick is we will hear after the market has closed tomorrow.

I fear you are going to be dissappointed though!

yabster
01-10-2010, 11:21 AM
so looks like any applications for addtional shares should get filled to about 92.5% of what was asked for? i.e 28.4/30.7 Would that be correct?

macduffy
01-10-2010, 12:30 PM
It sounds too good to be true but I'm not complaining, having "over-subscribed" for several times my entitlement!

Yes, some pressure on the SP can be expected but overall a very satisfactory outcome.

zigzag
02-10-2010, 04:49 PM
Wow. I got them all. I wish I had been a bit more greedy.

chippy52
03-10-2010, 08:58 AM
This info is available on NZX web site . All your holdings are there .

chippy52
03-10-2010, 09:37 AM
I should imagine if your shares are bought & sold under that number then they should show up .

zigzag
03-10-2010, 12:26 PM
Belgarion. I hold my shares under my own name, so I got the info. from Computershare website. All you need is your CSN and PIN. I got the holding summary yesterday just before I posted, at about 5.00pm. If you hold through a nominee acc. you may have to wait till Monday for an update. A bit more patience required.

chippy52
03-10-2010, 01:09 PM
I've never used the Computershare website before , but of the two its the better option . You can get the info over the weekend which is a plus .

macduffy
04-10-2010, 08:00 AM
I received more than twice my entitlement but only 56% of what I applied for. But then, I was being rather greedy about the whole thing!

Underwriters shouldn't feel too bad about picking up their fee without outlaying any capital.

elZorro
28-02-2011, 07:51 PM
Half-year books for HBY:

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2740536

The profit is in the automotive equipment/spares, not shoes. Should be sitting pretty with more farming spend available. Efforts to reduce debt must be helping too (we've all had a bit of a fright in 2009). Over 20% EOI is a good figure.

macduffy
28-02-2011, 08:06 PM
Yes, a good result.

I wonder how badly their operations have been hit by the earthquake? The equipment division was largely centred around the old Andrews and Beaven business, a Christchurch-based firm, although I would imagine that most of that business is now widely spread around the country.

macduffy
22-08-2011, 12:45 PM
Indeed, belgy!

Quite a good day for our boring old NZ industrials. Even CEN managed to gain on a flat result.

Disc: Holding HBY,CEN,NPX (and others)

zigzag
22-08-2011, 01:28 PM
qwertyuiop

zigzag
22-08-2011, 01:44 PM
Historic EPS is 23cps. At 2.50 this is on a PE of only 11. HBY deserves better than that Make the PE 14, and you do the maths. A great result, especially given the current circumstances!

janner
22-08-2011, 06:35 PM
Well done Belg..

You have shared your thoughts on this one for many a month now..

Lizard
22-08-2011, 07:33 PM
Would today's high and close of 2.55 be a breakout? ... If so ziggy me ol'mate we're in for a ride :)

I think HBY have done an excellent job - little short of miraculous transformation from dog with fleas to ribbon-winning Best-of-Breed. Most of it achieved through working capital management.

However, now they need to enter a new stage. It is not immediately obvious where they can get the growth from in the short term. Acquisitions seem to be the preferred strategy, but I see this as a short-term risk for the shares, although potential to be positive on a longer timeframe.

Given the low margin nature of their business, small moves in margins can make a big difference in profits. This may pay-off if NZ recovery takes hold, given most of their operations are local. However, they will probably struggle to squeeze any more out of the business in the coming year if it doesn't.

Overall, I value them at $2.81, but consider the risk in the next 6 months to be to the downside.

zigzag
03-09-2011, 10:11 AM
Would today's high and close of 2.55 be a breakout? ... If so ziggy me ol'mate we're in for a ride :)

$2.55 to $2.75. Does that qualify as a breakout? It seems reasonably well priced for the time being, but given a bit of a tail wind I can see s/p going over $3.00 next year. As long as we don't end up with a coalition of loosers after the election, the economy should continue to pick up, and things should be looking good for us holders of HBY. Many thanks to John Williamson and the new team. An amazing turnaround.

h2so4
25-10-2011, 02:29 PM
It's a crappy adage belg, as my mother used to say, " I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them":)

winner69
13-12-2011, 01:14 PM
HBY now approaching the 200 MA which has, over the last 2 years, proved an excellent time for a top up ... Interesting to see the brokers that actually cover HBY are rating them a buy too ... What the new "investment" guy up to? surely he's found some "bolt ons" by now?



Has he dilly dallied around to long and found that the 'targets' are now a bit too expensive?

winner69
13-12-2011, 01:23 PM
W69, I hoping its the reverse and he's waiting until the sellers become truelly distressed ... :)

But his “build, buy, harvest” strategy not doing much buying though is it .... lost opportunities maybe. Seems to have to have pretty lofty benchmarks that any acquisition needs to achieve .... this might also limit the opportunities

Bu then as you say he might be a patient type and waiting for the neext market collapse to get things cheaper .... one guru out on Business Spectatot said the markets will collapse 2nd half of next year

Onlt time will tell whether Williamson is a guru or not

winner69
27-02-2012, 06:12 PM
You be pleased with latest ann eh Belg .... esp seeing that it has been achieved without buying anything

They getting cheaper anyway "In addition, the upside of a weak economy is that value accretive
acquisition and investment opportunities are more likely to occur. We intend
to ignore the state of the economy and get on with reshaping our portfolio
with a mix of assets which we believe will create superior growth in
shareholder value."

Pity you sold some when you shrank the size of the pyramid but well down on staying loyal to them

winner69
08-04-2012, 07:41 AM
Maybe Dick Smiths on the agenda ..... rather they stick to industrial stuff though

macduffy
09-04-2012, 01:51 PM
From the perspective of a small shareholder in HBY I would hope that management remember their disastrous purchase of The BBQ Factory a few years back.

:eek2:

winner69
10-04-2012, 07:31 AM
Just that $100m for Dick Smiths is being touted .... about what HBY seem eager to spend on something

And they have retailing experience

winner69
25-04-2012, 10:49 AM
Talk on the street is that Hannahs is being sold

Selling some outfits to get enough money to buy something really big?

This “build, buy, harvest” strategy is taking forever

percy
25-04-2012, 03:33 PM
[QUOTE=winner69;372967]Talk on the street is that Hannahs is being sold

Well that's interesting.Ron Boskell MD of Postie Plus has an employment history in shoe retailing.Postie are selling Baby City and going to shareholders for funds for a large retail purchase> Hannahs?

macduffy
27-08-2012, 01:47 PM
Another excellebt result from HBY.

EBITDA up 10%
NPAT up 26% to $19.3m
30% return on funds employed
final div 8cps - annual total 13c - previous year 10cps
Net debt down fron $24.5m to $10.1m
Gearing down to 6.3% from 15.5%

Wish I had rather more of HBY and less of most of the others!

winner69
27-08-2012, 02:53 PM
just for you belg

waikare
28-08-2012, 07:22 AM
just for you belg

Hi Winner, where did you get this chart............

winner69
28-08-2012, 09:00 AM
Hi Winner, where did you get this chart............

From their presentation yesterday .....they obviously proud of their performance eh

Sorry should mentioned source eh

winner69
25-10-2012, 04:36 PM
Another AGM and still touting acquisitions .......wonder if they will ever make one????

Profits down so far this year .....way share price behaving assume acquisitions sort of built in?

percy
25-10-2012, 05:38 PM
Another AGM and still touting acquisitions .......wonder if they will ever make one????

Profits down so far this year .....way share price behaving assume acquisitions sort of built in?

Have you mentioned BLISS to them? lol.

winner69
27-12-2012, 08:35 AM
so the 'build buy harvest' strategy does exist .... and hby spend some money

Contract Resources looks a good fit with the rest of the portfolio and at least something that does some real stuff ..... and in a good industry

No doubt we will hear more in due course .... even if hby are one of the less noisy companies around when it comes to discussing things with shareholders

Last opportunuty to get in at thee low prices .... esp when the money men are away

percy
27-12-2012, 11:42 AM
I find it "interesting" that Rangatira sold their 50%.Don't think they would have sold unless they made a "good" profit.I note there are no Rangatira shares for sale.Smart acquisition or clever sale.? Time will tell.

percy
28-12-2012, 06:17 PM
A day later.HBY up from $3.00 or $3.05 to $3.32,whilr Rangatira have moved up from $6.15 to $7.00.

macduffy
27-03-2013, 11:28 AM
HBY in a trading halt while they organise a placement of $40m worth of shares. To be followed by a $10m SPP at the same price, whatever that turns out to be.

It's been a good investment for me since I took up a rights oversubscription a few years ago. Depending on price, may put a few more $$$$$ there!

:cool:

macduffy
27-03-2013, 11:59 AM
Indeed!

With around 6,500 shareholders that $10m will be spread pretty thinly, even if half of them choose to ignore it.

macduffy
12-04-2013, 12:53 PM
SPP documentation out, Allows for applications up to $15,000 worth of shares. Expect some severe scaling back!

macduffy
27-04-2013, 11:06 AM
The HBY SP has reacted (predictably?) by falling back to the placement/SPP price. So not the bargain it promised to be but I'll take a few at that price before the issue closes on 1 May.

zigzag
04-05-2013, 08:58 AM
I sent in a cheque for $10,000, and going by their last ann. to the NZX I thought I would be getting some of my money back. But just checked my holding and it seems I got my total application. HBY is now my largest holding.

macduffy
08-05-2013, 11:11 AM
Allotment notification received today in respect of the recent SPP. As expected, it was heavily oversubscribed - scaling back gives me about 59% of the amount sought.

zigzag
08-05-2013, 03:53 PM
Allotment notification received today in respect of the recent SPP. As expected, it was heavily oversubscribed - scaling back gives me about 59% of the amount sought.

According to the Computershare web-page,I got my full quota. I sent in $10,000 and got 3390 shares. Not sure how the scaling worked. Maybe I'm just better looking?

macduffy
08-05-2013, 04:01 PM
That must be it!

The allotment letter says "scaled back on a pro rata basis" - which must include a "good-looking" factor.

:rolleyes:

Jaa
01-10-2013, 02:26 PM
A good bolt on acquisition announced today.

www.nbr.co.nz/article/hellaby-buys-sydney-based-ryde-batteries-about-a12-mln-boost-largest-unit-bd-146541

artemis
20-03-2014, 10:13 AM
Not many shareholder perks these days, but Hellaby 25% off at Number 1 shoes is not too dusty.

waikare
14-04-2014, 05:46 PM
Hellaby has acquired the business of Auckland-based auto electrical wholesale company, Dasko Marketing NZ Limited (trading as Dasko) in a private transaction. Dasko is a national distributor of auto electrical, fuel and engine management components to repair centres, workshops, autoparts distributors and retailers. Its product range complements those of Hellaby’s existing Automotive distribution businesses including BNT, HCB and Diesel Distributors, further broadening the market coverage of this division.

Hellaby has also purchased the operations of New Zealand Trucks South Island Limited (trading as New Zealand Trucks), a Christchurch-based truck servicing business, in a private transaction. New Zealand Trucks provides maintenance, repair and engineering services to the truck industry. Hellaby considers this acquisition a logical next step in expanding its footprint in the heavy-equipment servicing sector, with subsidiary AB Equipment already a market leader in the supply and servicing of materials-handling, forestry and construction equipment across New Zealand.

Hellaby Managing Director John Williamson said that Hellaby was delighted with the acquisitions of Dasko and New Zealand Trucks. “While these businesses are both relatively small, they are strategically significant and highly complementary to a number of existing Hellaby subsidiaries. We’re excited because we believe that they have strong growth potential, not only because they are good businesses in themselves, but also through the synergies they can achieve with other businesses in the Hellaby group.”

Mr Williamson said the additions of Dasko and New Zealand Trucks have been made at a combined enterprise value of less than $10 million. Hellaby has used existing group debt facilities and expects the acquisitions to provide a positive and immediate impact on earnings per share. The businesses will have combined annual revenues of around $20 million and are expected to collectively increase Hellaby’s annualised EBITDA by around $2.5 million.

ari
15-04-2014, 07:10 AM
Hellaby has acquired the business of Auckland-based auto electrical wholesale company, Dasko Marketing NZ Limited (trading as Dasko) in a private transaction. Dasko is a national distributor of auto electrical, fuel and engine management components to repair centres, workshops, autoparts distributors and retailers. Its product range complements those of Hellaby’s existing Automotive distribution businesses including BNT, HCB and Diesel Distributors, further broadening the market coverage of this division.

Interesting re Dasko who were always ready to undercut, and have been a thorn in the side of BNT for sometime.

winner69
26-05-2014, 10:57 AM
Latest guidance out today

First couple of sentences all positive except for shoes

Market doesn't seem to like contract deferrals and below forecast comments re their new business

macduffy
26-05-2014, 11:11 AM
Yes, winner, that seems to be the case.

It's unusual to see such a negative reaction to a forecast 35% increased profit but the Contract Resources acquisition was a sizable one for HBY. Doesn't help either that their major customers happen to be involved in the currently unfashionable Aussie mining sector.

bull....
26-05-2014, 11:48 AM
took the oportunity to pick some up 2.80 was support bottom of channel 2.80 - 3.40 , could get an increase in div when they release results with good numbers like this dont see any problem with defferals at this stage

bull....
28-05-2014, 11:18 AM
out no follow thru, no fish n chip money here lol

macduffy
28-08-2014, 12:59 PM
You get your wish, bull...., with an increased divvy from HBY!

A solid year - comparison y/y made difficult by acquisitions and the "normalisation" thingy but the two numbers that look significant, to me at least, are:

Return on funds employed rose from 22.9% to 25.4%

EPS ( okay, normalised!) up 20% y/y.

Result around expectations and SP up a cent today.

percy
28-08-2014, 02:43 PM
Fantastic ROE and an excellent increase in EPS must make you feel you are "well postioned."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

winner69
28-08-2014, 03:08 PM
Fantastic ROE and an excellent increase in EPS must make you feel you are "well postioned."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

They use a thing called ROFE which is not what you think as ROE

ROE was just over 13% (normalised of course)

Give HBY heaps of praise for turning things around from the depths of despair 5 or so years. Just gritted their teeth and got on with it. Well done

No reason why their investments shouldn't continue to do well, as well as the new ones that inevitably wll come on stream.

percy
28-08-2014, 03:14 PM
They use a thing called ROFE which is not what you think as ROE

ROE was just over 13% (normalised of course)

Give HBY heaps of praise for turning things around from the depths of despair 5 or so years. Just gritted their teeth and got on with it. Well done

No reason why their investments shouldn't continue to do well, as well as the new ones that inevitably wll come on stream.

In short they are "well positioned." lol.

winner69
28-08-2014, 03:30 PM
In short they are "well positioned." lol.

Incredibly well positioned Percy

Even my EVA / MVA models say that with a market cap of $275m there is NO growth factored in. A BUY in other words

winner69
31-08-2014, 02:15 PM
Interesting interview with Williamson on Radio Live this morning

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/John-Williamson-Managing-Director-Hellaby-Holdings/tabid/506/articleID/53576/Default.aspx