Rubicon

[Leftfield]

My RBC shareholding is in unfamiliar territory....the arrows colour is blue.
Xmas has arrived early.

Don't want to jinx it but today's 21% SP increase is a mighty nice feeing. Into the blue for me to. Just the start IMHO.

[ratkin]

Don't want to jinx it but today's 21% SP increase is a mighty nice feeing. Into the blue for me to. Just the start IMHO.

Looks like you did jinx it. Now they losing their last remaining investment maybe they will rename to Arbogen

[beetills]

Me thinks i celebrate too early.....Red arrow now the colour.
Time to return my xmas presents.

[ari]

Don't want to jinx it but today's 21% SP increase is a mighty nice feeing. Into the blue for me to. Just the start IMHO.

Still think we are 6mths away, once the $21m deferred settlement payments are out of the way......who knows??????

[Well Endowed]

large parcel through this morning, around $1.3m worth at 19.5c

[biker]

large parcel through this morning, around $1.3m worth at 19.5c

Fund managers in the US need to sell but who’s buying?

[Balance]

Water dripping on sand-stone - just a matter of time.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311785

Well, the 9.3m shares bought today certainly made a dent on the sand-stone.

At this rate, TAM should be out by Christmas - setting the scene for a share price of at least 30c in 2018 imo.

[Well Endowed]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311892

4.52% to go, being chewed through quite nicely again yesterday with a few more chunky parcels through @ 19.5c

[ratkin]

Do we know who is buying yet? Must be due a new substantial holder notice

[ratkin]

Doubled my holding last few days at 19.5 Cents. Felt like the right time to top up. See little value on the NZ markets at the moment. Rubicon looks one of the few with some decent upside.

[Well Endowed]

completely agree. been buying the odd parcel every now and then. Hoping for a nice turning of the tides in 2018.

If the woeful Labour/Greens tree planting policy every comes to fruition this could hit top gear.

[Leftfield]

Doubled my holding last few days at 19.5 Cents. Felt like the right time to top up. See little value on the NZ markets at the moment. Rubicon looks one of the few with some decent upside.

Same - great minds think alike!

[Xerof]

Fund managers in the US need to sell but who’s buying? Don't really care who is buying, but they'll not budge too far from 19/19.5 until they have cleaned out TAM, unless another buyer overbids. As Balance says, at this rate they'll be gone by Christmas.

[Balance]

Don't really care who is buying, but they'll not budge too far from 19/19.5 until they have cleaned out TAM, unless another buyer overbids. As Balance says, at this rate they'll be gone by Christmas.

Maybe not by Christmas at this stage.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312063

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/311785/271592.pdf

Another 15.9m shares from this holder (should be gone by Christmas) but TAM has 38.2m to go.

[t.rexjr]

Maybe not by Christmas at this stage.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312063

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/311785/271592.pdf

Another 15.9m shares from this holder (should be gone by Christmas) but TAM has 38.2m to go.

15m through late in the day. I dare say that’s SAM done and dusted. They’ve been the main force driving the price down given they’ve had to sell. That hopefully is the last shares at bargain basement. Just TAM now. I feel we’re soon to be cheering this nag down the home straight. Rank outsiders normally pay well!

[Balance]

15m through late in the day. I dare say that’s SAM done and dusted. They’ve been the main force driving the price down given they’ve had to sell. That hopefully is the last shares at bargain basement. Just TAM now. I feel we’re soon to be cheering this nag down the home straight. Rank outsiders normally pay well!

Agreed.

Serko shows what happens to a stock ignored by just about all but is quietly accumulated by a few.

[Leftfield]

Agreed. Serko shows what happens to a stock ignored by just about all but is quietly accumulated by a few.

Good on you Balance, I enjoyed the TEN party, was fashionably late to the SKO party, but have got early seats for the RBC party.

Going to be an interesting times in 2018 as we look for something to build on our 2017 ATM and SKO sized gains.

[Xerof]

That transaction this morning, takes TAM and SAM off the register completely. Nicely played by the buyers, picking the whole lot up at 19.5 (Which I might add, is GS's valuation)

I hope liftoff looks more like a Cape Canaveral than a Mahia :eek2:

[t.rexjr]

Well looky there. That 34m+ trade just takes out the last of SAM and TAM by my calcs. The relentless sellers just dried up. A certain song by Yazz comes to mind.

https://youtu.be/UtKADQnjQmc

[biker]

Agree this is great news. In itself it doesn't add any value per share to RBC but it should at least let the market put a more appropriate value on the Company.
Many of the past years have held great promise for RBC which hasn't eventuated.
Just maybe, this will be Rubicon's year.

[ari]

Well, that didn’t take long! Nice lift

[beetills]

The blue arrow has appeared.Onwards and Upwards.Wagons ho.

[biker]

Where some of the shares have gone. Now owns 5% of RBC for which he paid 19.5c. Provident Advisors could do well this year.

Mr. Irvin Robert Kessler is the Co-founder of Provident Real Estate Ventures. Mr. Kessler has been the Chief Executive Officer at PRCM Real Estate Advisers LLC since January 2012. He serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Provident Advisors LLC. Mr. Kessler serves as Chief Investment Officer and Managing Member at Provident Real Estate Advisors LLC. He has over vast years experience in the securities industry. Mr. Kessler served as the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Deephaven Capital Management LLC. He founded Deephaven in 1994. Mr. Kessler co-founded Arbitrade Holdings LLC in 1995. Prior to this, he traded as proprietary options market-maker, trained and financed over 75 other options market-makers, started a clearing firm for floor traders and established a Chicago Board of Options Exchange (the “CBOE“) specialist post. Mr. Kessler also worked at Knight Capital Group. He has been the Chairman of the Board of Silver Bay Realty Trust Corp. since October 1, 2014, served as its Vice Chairman until October 1, 2014. Mr. Kessler served on the Board of the CBOE and the Chicago Stock Exchange. He attended the University of Minnesota.

[ari]

Phew, that’s some pedigree. But other major players also have some fairly impressive backgrounds......

[ratkin]

2018 year of the Rubicon

[Balance]

Looking great!

Last opportunity I would say to get onboard at around current levels. When the NZ institutions (who have been steering clear due to hang ups about Fletcher group of old) start investing, the stock will really move.

Then there’s the last of the Tenon money being paid out too which could be reinvested into RBC.

[ratkin]

ACC on board now and up another 10% so far. Train has left the station

[beetills]

Lets hope the starting Station wasn't Wairoa and the final destination isn't Gisborne.

[Balance]

Stock was trading at around 24c when Tenon was trading at $1.20.

Only reason why RBC has been down below 24c imo is that TAM became a distressed seller (quick google search will tell you that) and in an illiquid stock like this, TAM had to keep selling lower to get out.

Then the selling was joined by SAM. Inevitable sp was going to come under severe pressure.

Now two loose holders have been replaced by several solid longer term shareholders.

Only one way for the sp to go as the Aborgen story gathers momentum - as it has been but largely ignored by the market to date.

Just like Tenon was ignored. :D

[dubya]

Bank of New Zealand on board now with 25 million shares.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312806

[Xerof]

Not exactly, not in their own right.

"Conditional power to control the disposal of the financial product. The relevant interest arises only from the powers of investment contained in an investment management contract for Bank of New Zealand’s portfolio execution service"

Perhaps that yank who bought the 25m last week has some sort of portfolio management agreement with BNZ.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/312995/272991.pdf


Good summary :

It is a global leader in advanced forestry genetics, operating in the world’s major commercial tree species
(pine and eucalyptus), in geographies with high annual planting rates (Brazil, the US, and Australasia). It sells to major forestry players in thosecountries, and has a leading market position in its largest
commercial market, the US.

It has a pre-eminent intellectual property position, which includes an industry- leading germplasm repository (i.e. genetic library), a proprietary ‘tree machine’ platform, an extensive database of global trials, varietal and transgenic technology, and a genomics platform - all protected by a patent portfolio and a ‘bank’ of trade secrets.

It has a portfolio of advanced products that do not require regulatory approval, which are currently being commercialised.

In its last fiscal year, ArborGen turned EBITDA positive, and its forecasts are for it to be cash- positive from now onwards.

The considerable investment in research, capability and customer preparation has been made. ArborGen
is now all about commercialising that investment by converting its customers to its advanced genetics products.

[dubya]

Just attended special shareholders meeting. Still there having a coffee.

The gist of the questions asked of the chairman and his answers (which may or may not be publicly available) were:

1. No dividends for 2 to 3 years as cash needed for capital requirements.
2. Name will probably be changed from Rubicon to Arborgen.
3. Listing on the US market is the appropriate path forward. (With listing remaining on NZ board)

[Balance]

Just attended special shareholders meeting. Still there having a coffee.

The gist of the questions asked of the chairman and his answers (which may or may not be publicly available) were:

1. No dividends for 2 to 3 years as cash needed for capital requirements.
2. Name will probably be changed from Rubicon to Arborgen.
3. Listing on the US market is the appropriate path forward. (With listing remaining on NZ board)

Thanks, dubya.

Was going to attend but could not make it.

Try and have a one on one with Moriarty - he can be persuaded to disclose what he thinks Arborgen will eventually be worth.

[dubya]

Sorry but I've already left.

[dodgy]

Sorry but already left.

Hi
Did the motion pass?
Thanks
-dodgy

[dubya]

Still don't know how to answer with the quote in my reply. Sorry.

They didn't announce anything during the meeting. Some people cast their votes at the very end do I guess they're still counting them. I'd assume it will be announced this afternoon.

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/312995/272991.pdf


Good summary :

It is a global leader in advanced forestry genetics, operating in the world’s major commercial tree species
(pine and eucalyptus), in geographies with high annual planting rates (Brazil, the US, and Australasia). It sells to major forestry players in thosecountries, and has a leading market position in its largest
commercial market, the US.

It has a pre-eminent intellectual property position, which includes an industry- leading germplasm repository (i.e. genetic library), a proprietary ‘tree machine’ platform, an extensive database of global trials, varietal and transgenic technology, and a genomics platform - all protected by a patent portfolio and a ‘bank’ of trade secrets.

It has a portfolio of advanced products that do not require regulatory approval, which are currently being commercialised.

In its last fiscal year, ArborGen turned EBITDA positive, and its forecasts are for it to be cash- positive from now onwards.

The considerable investment in research, capability and customer preparation has been made. ArborGen
is now all about commercialising that investment by converting its customers to its advanced genetics products.

David Darling should be proud of what he created imany years ago eh

[Balance]

David Darling should be proud of what he created imany years ago eh

Haha - many decades from now, there may be light at the end of the tunnel for PEB too?

Proviso being that he can keep the equity raisings going beyond 2018.

[winner69]

Haha - many decades from now, there may be light at the end of the tunnel for PEB too?

Proviso being that he can keep the equity raisings going beyond 2018.

Arbogen still on his CV

[Balance]

Arbogen still on his CV

Rather telling, isn't it?

[Sgt Pepper]

Could some one wallk me through the implications of a NZ domiciled company having 100% off its assets in a company in the USA which has a IPO.if indeed this is the pathway forward for Rubicon?

[iceman]

JP Morgan announcement this morning show they have now sold all their RBC holding, which was substantial. This may take a bit of selling pressure of RBC

[beetills]

JP Morgan announcement this morning show they have now sold all their RBC holding, which was substantial. This may take a bit of selling pressure of RBC
Being a novice on sharemarket speak,should we expect the SP to rise,drop or remain steady?

[Xerof]

Two matters:

JPM held the shares under a Prime Broker Agreement, NOT in their own right.

However, it allows these parasites to 'play' the market with their algo's/robotic trades to their hearts content, shorting if they deem appropriate, or simply churn the stocks for minimal gains, until such time as the real owner quits them. At that point they must have all the stock to give back, which can sometimes create a magnificent short squeeze. I have witnessed a couple of those - DIL was one

[Leftfield]

Being a novice on sharemarket speak,should we expect the SP to rise,drop or remain steady?

IMHO the TA chart shows a classic start of an uptrend. Large volumes exiting/buying removing the 'overhang' well explained other posters on this site, and more recently a 'golden cross' as the short term MA moves up through the long term MA.

For the SP to rise markedly from this point the market will need favourable news from the company following it's recent restructuring and climb into profit. Will this happen? Time will tell..

9416

Disc - DYOR I'm biased, and holding.

[ari]

Thanks for posting. Can't help thinking RBC and Arbogen 'well positioned' for the NZ Govt's tree planting plans.
Waiting patiently for more info' on RBC's results and plans.

Appears Labour are pulling back on 1 billion trees over 10 years.....(only 270,000 per day!) ....they have just realised cutting out foreign investors in this area will have huge effect.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/100496529/foreign-investment-ban-could-hurt-billionstrong-treeplanting-plan

[ari]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/313594/273702.pdf

[Well Endowed]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12000666

$180m towards trees, aiming for 55m trees this year (of a total of 1b to be planted)

[freddagg]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12000666

$180m towards trees, aiming for 55m trees this year (of a total of 1b to be planted)

At that rate they will be harvesting the trees planted this year 5 years before they are all planted

[minimoke]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12000666

$180m towards trees, aiming for 55m trees this year (of a total of 1b to be planted)
Have I got this right? Labour promised to plant 1 billion trees. Half of those trees are going to be planted by commercial operators as part of their established planting programme.

So labour are going to actually plant 1/2b trees. Now I have no idea how much it costs to plant a tree. But i'd have thought you wouldn't get any change out of $1 a tree to plant and establish. So half a billion trees = half a billion dollars.

And then a few years in, while busy planting, you have the first prune at what $0.50 a tree. So there another $1/4b

So by my reckoning Labour is looking at planting 120m trees for $180m. Lets call it 1/10th of theri promise

[Well Endowed]

my understanding is its planned along these lines, peaking from 2021 onwards at 110m/year.

2018 55m
2019 70m
2020 90m
2021 110m

The problem with this is that it relies on the Labour govt winning multiple terms, and as pointed out, there will come a point when these will be nearing a harvestable age and additional will be planted. Personally I think its classic labour voting winning pie in the sky tactics, and you're quitecorrect that $180m won't cover much. But happy ( only as a Rubicon holder) that there is at least focus in this area.

[ratkin]

Article here regarding Arbogen partnering up with the sOUTH Carolina forestry commision

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180227005059/en/ArborGen-Enters-Partnership-S.C.-Forestry-Commission-Operate

[gmatt]

Annual Shareholders' Meeting tomorrow morning .......... is there any way we can watch online?

[Well Endowed]

is anyone heading along?

[Balance]

is anyone heading along?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315147

Plenty to read here from the meeting.

Excerpt :

"After their valuation experts took a detailed look at the transaction, KPMG concurred that we had made, what the accountants like to call, a ‘bargain purchase
price gain’, and they concluded that the value of the identifiable assets and liabilities we acquired with ArborGen implied a book value of US$124 million for 100% [net of debt]. That is what we are now
carrying ArborGen at in our books. That asset value today, inclusive of cash at Rubicon, implies a RBC share price of circa NZ40cps –i.e. almost twice the current share price."

Several big positives with the company in the last year:

1. Stock overhang out of the way. Still a few loose volume sellers as we saw recently but the stock (4m in total) was put away at 20c and 20.5c.

2. RBC is completely debt free.

3. Aborgen is cashflow and operating earnings positive.

[iceman]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315147

Plenty to read here from the meeting.

Excerpt :

"After their valuation experts took a detailed look at the transaction, KPMG concurred that we had made, what the accountants like to call, a ‘bargain purchase
price gain’, and they concluded that the value of the identifiable assets and liabilities we acquired with ArborGen implied a book value of US$124 million for 100% [net of debt]. That is what we are now
carrying ArborGen at in our books. That asset value today, inclusive of cash at Rubicon, implies a RBC share price of circa NZ40cps –i.e. almost twice the current share price."

Several big positives with the company in the last year:

1. Stock overhang out of the way. Still a few loose volume sellers as we saw recently but the stock (4m in total) was put away at 20c and 20.5c.

2. RBC is completely debt free.

3. Aborgen is cashflow and operating earnings positive.

Yes the reports are good reading and sounds like they are finally getting their house in order. EBIDTA current fiscal year estimated to be US$10M and a "further noticeable lift in earnings" for 2019.
May be time to top up a few more soon.

24c being cleaned out, albeit on low volume

[percy]

"Book value NZ 40 cents ps.If we can deliver on the upside scenarios discussed in our annual review,then the outcomes would be of multiples of that again.And in that respect,the critical point is that,now that we own 100% of AborGen,the outcome is ALL within our control."

Brought a few at 24 cents this morning.

[Balance]

"Book value NZ 40 cents ps.If we can deliver on the upside scenarios discussed in our annual review,then the outcomes would be of multiples of that again.And in that respect,the critical point is that,now that we own 100% of AborGen,the outcome is ALL within our control."

Brought a few at 24 cents this morning.

Those with Tenon shares will recall Luke Moriarty making similar comments when the share price of Tenon was under $1.00. I did not invest until around $1.20 (just to be sure) and must say I am grateful for the market's negativity at that time.

[percy]

Balance.
They refer to their Annual Review.I can't find it on NZX or www.stocknessmonster.com sites.
Do you know what date it was announced?
Most probably under a different name.

[Balance]

Balance.
They refer to their Annual Review.I can't find it on NZX or www.stocknessmonster.com sites.
Do you know what date it was announced?
Most probably under a different name.

This one - refer to page 30 of the Audit Report.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/310916/270483.pdf

Love the words 'Bargain Purchase"!

[ari]

Taken from Edison report April '15 (is this why Rubicon no longer use Edison)....3 years on and how things change...

At current share prices, the inferred ArborGen total equity value is c US$175m-180m. When we
initiated coverage of Rubicon in June 2013, we presented DCF-based valuations for ArborGen of c
US$354m for ArborGen’s existing US and Australasian activities and a further US$300m for new
market opportunities (including Brazil). Adjusting the existing operation value for current net debt of
c US$30m, gives equivalent values for each element of NZ$0.33 and NZ$0.31 per Rubicon share
respectively. A future liquidity event for ArborGen may take the form of an IPO; even allowing for a
valuation which focuses on existing established operations only and with a typical IPO discount, we
believe that this would still yield a look-through value to Rubicon above the level inferred by the
current share price.
It would appear then that the values of both of Rubicon’s investment shareholdings are
undervalued. We also note a disconnect between the share prices of Tenon and Rubicon:
 Since the beginning of 2013, Tenon’s share price has more than doubled but that for Rubicon
is little changed.
 Since the beginning of 2014, the performance divergence is even more stark, with Tenon
rising by over 30%, while Rubicon is c 11% lower.
We believe that Rubicon’s share price should show greater correlation with movements in Tenon’s
share price, (broadly, a 10c move in Tenon is equivalent to 1c move in Rubicon), and would expect
it to respond to any news flow that establishes an independent market value for ArborGen. Taking a
combined view of our analyses above suggests:
 a conservative case valuation of NZ$0.64 per share – Tenon NZ$0.36 (lower end of range),
plus ArborGen existing NZ$0.33, (ie base value net of current debt) and including Rubicon net
debt of NZ$0.05 per share.
 a more bullish case valuation of NZ$1.06 per share – Tenon NZ$0.47, plus ArborGen total
NZ$0.64 (net of current debt), again including an NZ$0.05 per share adjustment for Rubicon
net debt.

[percy]

This one - refer to page 30 of the Audit Report.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/310916/270483.pdf

Love the words 'Bargain Purchase"!

Thanks for the link.
Yes "Bargain Purchase" has a certain ring to it.!..lol.
Don't recall ever seeing that before.

[blackcap]

I attended the meeting this morning.
Very interesting and insightful.
Some very pissed off shareholders and had a few chuckles from a few corners.
Happy to hold at 22.5 a few weeks ago.
Bit annoyed that Percy took those at 24 I was having a look at :)

[Balance]

I attended the meeting this morning.
Very interesting and insightful.
Some very pissed off shareholders and had a few chuckles from a few corners.
Happy to hold at 22.5 a few weeks ago.
Bit annoyed that Percy took those at 24 I was having a look at :)

Any interesting questions from the floor?

[blackcap]

Any interesting questions from the floor?

There were literally dozens of questions from the floor. Meeting took 1 hour 40 odd and the opening 2 speeches were very short. It was pretty much q and a time.
1st Q from Sharehodlers association... what are you going to do with governance structure now you are basically 2 coys in 1. A, not sure yet working on it, many S/H and tax implications to consider.
Q on promising EBITDA, but how can we believe you because you have been promising this for years. A from CEO, well this time it really is true. Arbo is a growht company and we are already going into positive EBIT.
Q on different types of trees or varieties, and other related question as to risks. A. Main risk is weather.
Q about how you can justify a mkt capitalisation of $100m when your profit is forecast to be $2m. A, growth story.
Question and statement on implications of auditors comments from a past auditor who said he had never seen something like this before and in his mind that itself was a huge plus and positive for the company.
Q on the valuation of IP at about $100m,.... are they one whole or is is an accumulation of individual IP's. A... an accumulation of a lot of different IP's each individually valued.
Q about whether exec team or Rubicon is now redundant... A, we are working on it.
Statement from floor... should really change name to something other than Rubicon (rubicon has negative connotations etc). A. We are aware of that and its a very good suggestion.
CEO was very positive about the growth he expects from Arborgen and said watch the space.
Also commodity seedlings sell for about 6 cents US, the Arborgen ones between 16-25 cents each. Hurricanes in the US (last season) also destroyed about a quarter of sales or about 25m which would imply that they lost out on $5m or revenue... Of which a lot would go straight to bottom line.

Hope that helps.

[Balance]

Hope that helps.

Many thanks, Blackcap.

Much appreciated!

[percy]

Blackcap.
Thank you for your great meeting comments.
Making me feel even more guilty about buying those shares under your nose.!

[blackcap]

Blackcap.
Thank you for your great meeting comments.
Making me feel even more guilty about buying those shares under your nose.!

Haha not a problem and good luck to you. I had my phone with me this morning, I was just not quick enough :)
Like I said earlier, happy in at 22.5 so not complaining at all. May top up if the price comes back a bit.
Cheers.

[Balance]

Haha not a problem and good luck to you. I had my phone with me this morning, I was just not quick enough :)
Like I said earlier, happy in at 22.5 so not complaining at all. May top up if the price comes back a bit.
Cheers.

Again, sp may not come back?

In the end if AborGen lives up to its promise, whether one invests at 21c or 26c should not really matter.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/arborgen-inc-838281-65315

The IPO indicative value of NZ$660m a few years ago provides an indication of upside potential - $1.35 per share.

IPO was pulled if you recall due to litigation brought by disaffected employees who believed they should also have big slice of the upside potential. Law suit was ultimately settled out of court with minimal impact on Aborgen and Rubicon.

[blackcap]

Again, sp may not come back?

In the end if AborGen lives up to its promise, whether one invests at 21c or 26c should not really matter.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/arborgen-inc-838281-65315

The IPO indicative value of NZ$660m a few years ago provides an indication of upside potential - $1.35 per share.

IPO was pulled if you recall due to litigation brought by disaffected employees who believed they should also have big slice of the upside potential. Law suit was ultimately settled out of court with minimal impact on Aborgen and Rubicon.

I think it may come down again just because its Rubicon and legacy issues. Agree though that if they do deliver on the growth they say they will then 26 cents is going to seem very cheap very soon.
Thanks for that insight there Balance, am new to the register (left when it was still FFS, and that is not "for fcuk's sake") so was unaware of the IPO indicative value.
You jog my memory, there was a question on the floor about potential for IPO and distributing shares to shareholders of RBC. BUt that suggestion was pretty much scoffed. Seemed to suggest company did not have enough earnings for IPO and they were not looking into it at this stage.

[t.rexjr]

I think it may come down again just because its Rubicon and legacy issues. Agree though that if they do deliver on the growth they say they will then 26 cents is going to seem very cheap very soon.
Thanks for that insight there Balance, am new to the register (left when it was still FFS, and that is not "for fcuk's sake") so was unaware of the IPO indicative value.
You jog my memory, there was a question on the floor about potential for IPO and distributing shares to shareholders of RBC. BUt that suggestion was pretty much scoffed. Seemed to suggest company did not have enough earnings for IPO and they were not looking into it at this stage.

The drop from 30c to 17.5c was I'd expect all due to the endless supply of shares being dumped by TAM & SAM. Legacy issues indeed, though since those shares have passed to stronger hands the volume bringing the sp back is weak. Serious buyers will struggle to buy quantity without forcing price up I'd think. The trading pattern in the last few weeks is dramatically different from the last year or two. Pesky Joe with their 1000 sells to get the weekends beer money is an annoyance but will have less and less effect as the days pass. Only a few weeks untill the re-changed, changed year end. We'll have that report and '19 guidence in a few months which no doubt will look much healthier. IPO or not this is undervalued.

[Leftfield]

Missed the meeting today (gone fishing) but liked this quote when I subsequently read today's report. "Were it trading at book value, it (i.e. Arborgen/RBC) would be (worth) circa NZ 40c. "

There is a lot more to like in today's report and I strongly recommend non-holders make themselves aware of RBC's potential. Here's the link (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/315147/275785.pdf).

The upside SP potential combined with minimal downside saw me nibbling more today. Exciting times.

[Xerof]

A close around current prices (26) will see the 4 year long downtrend convincingly broken, after the earlier breakout to 24 saw a perfect retest of the DTL at 20. Now off to the races

ps nice buying percy

[Balance]

Missed the meeting today (gone fishing) but liked this quote when I subsequently read today's report. "Were it trading at book value, it (i.e. Arborgen/RBC) would be (worth) circa NZ 40c. "

There is a lot more to like in today's report and I strongly recommend non-holders make themselves aware of RBC's potential. Here's the link (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RBC/315147/275785.pdf).

The upside SP potential combined with minimal downside saw me nibbling more today. Exciting times.

In a market where most stocks are looking fully priced (I have ATM and think it is fully priced but am not one who will sell!), Rubicon stands out as having excellent upside potential.

It is an international stock at the end of the day and the international stocks are the ones with the best growth potential.

[ratkin]

Was well worth the wait. Stock been an easy buy last Six months, only way was up.

[blackcap]

Couple of things to add from my earier post about the AGM.

Questions was asked about dividends. No dividend in forseeable future. Growing the company (arborgen) in the US is the focus.
Another question related about what is Rubicon going to do with the $12m it has left over.... that's going to Arbogen as well to fund growth.

If I remember more of the meeting will post. (sorry took no notes today)

[ratkin]

Couple of things to add from my earier post about the AGM.

Questions was asked about dividends. No dividend in forseeable future. Growing the company (arborgen) in the US is the focus.
Another question related about what is Rubicon going to do with the $12m it has left over.... that's going to Arbogen as well to fund growth.

If I remember more of the meeting will post. (sorry took no notes today)

Any talk of company name change?, and with most activity now in the states any chance of a future delisting from the nz exchange?

[blackcap]

Any talk of company name change?, and with most activity now in the states any chance of a future delisting from the nz exchange?

There was a suggestion for a name change as per my earlier post.

Do not think they are going to delist... There was a question posed about how about doing an inspecie distribution of Arborgen shares to Rubicon shareholders but without Arborgen being listed how does that help the NZ shareholders? So not a very palatable option at this stage.
But they (board) acknowledge that there are not 2 companies and 2 boards and 2 exec teams and are working to implement some sort of "merger" for use of a better word.

[Well Endowed]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/rubicon-promises-cost-cutting-and-straightforward-future-jr-p-213446

[blackcap]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/rubicon-promises-cost-cutting-and-straightforward-future-jr-p-213446

Thanks Well Endowed, but could you please say that it is "locked content" so those of us without a subscription do not have to go there... cheers :)

[biker]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/rubicon-promises-cost-cutting-and-straightforward-future-jr-p-213446

Just a summary of the ASM presentations by Jenny Ruth. Nothing too negative to report so Tim Hunter didn't get a shot.

[ari]

And a lot of this is happening on our own doorstep...http://supertreeseedlings.co.nz/

[Well Endowed]

Thanks Well Endowed, but could you please say that it is "locked content" so those of us without a subscription do not have to go there... cheers :)

Apologies mate, forgot it was behind a paywall!

yep nothing too note worthy, The two comments at the bottom of the article are rather scathing towards director's acting in their own interests and being overpaid...standard stuff really haha

[iceman]

Apologies mate, forgot it was behind a paywall!

yep nothing too note worthy, The two comments at the bottom of the article are rather scathing towards director's acting in their own interests and being overpaid...standard stuff really haha

But the comments are not really surprising though and it pays for all of us to remember that the Directors and Executives are handsomely paid and so far the operations make very limited profits to pay for it all !
I do like how they have completely restructured the company even though its taken a long time and been frustrating for SH. But what we have now looks fairly tidy and hopefully it is not too long before RBC and Arborgen will become just Arborgen and be listed in the US.

For the first time in a long while, probably ever for RBC, the road ahead looks clear and I'm going for the ride.

[Balance]

But the comments are not really surprising though and it pays for all of us to remember that the Directors and Executives are handsomely paid and so far the operations make very limited profits to pay for it all !
I do like how they have completely restructured the company even though its taken a long time and been frustrating for SH. But what we have now looks fairly tidy and hopefully it is not too long before RBC and Arborgen will become just Arborgen and be listed in the US.

For the first time in a long while, probably ever for RBC, the road ahead looks clear and I'm going for the ride.

For what they have NOT delivered, the directors and management have been and are paid very very well indeed!

No point getting too hung up however on the past if the future looks good - which seems to be the case here.

Let the market stay negative while you quietly build up your portfolio.

Serko is a great example of buying while the market was still overall negative.

Likewise, years ago when RBD was under $1.00. Sigh - sold too soon there myself.

[ari]

For what they have NOT delivered, the directors and management have been and are paid very very well indeed!

No point getting too hung up however on the past if the future looks good - which seems to be the case here.

Let the market stay negative while you quietly build up your portfolio.

Serko is a great example of buying while the market was still overall negative.

Likewise, years ago when RBD was under $1.00. Sigh - sold too soon there myself.

I've been pretty negative on RBC over the years but still here. Paid as much as 91c in 2004 then from 2010 started trading down to protect position to present position of 39.6c....with just off $100k invested 40c will do fine to get principal back, but still think there is more in it.

[Balance]

I've been pretty negative on RBC over the years but still here. Paid as much as 91c in 2004 then from 2010 started trading down to protect position to present position of 39.6c....with just off $100k invested 40c will do fine to get principal back, but still think there is more in it.

You are a man of infinite fortitude and patience! Both virtues must be rewarded!

[ari]

You are a man of infinite fortitude and patience! Both virtues must be rewarded!

More like stubbornness!

[whatsup]

Big buy of 2.2 + mil shares just gone through, is the word spreading that RBC is the new growth story, hmmmmm !

[Balance]

Big buy of 2.2 + mil shares just gone through, is the word spreading that RBC is the new growth story, hmmmmm !

And there were millions and millions offered at 19c not that long ago!

[ratkin]

And there were millions and millions offered at 19c not that long ago!

Yes its amusing, it is not like anything has changed. Unwanted when they were cheap, now people falling over themselves trying to pick some up. Great to see all the same, hopefully there a few more days of excitement before it settles back down to its usual inert state.
Market depth showing strong buy pressure. The queue normally empty

[ratkin]

Judging by the sell queue this morning we have now reached the short term top

[Well Endowed]

Judging by the sell queue this morning we have now reached the short term top

unless we see previous day's buyer opt to grab a few more, as we're below yesterday's big parcel price?

[blackcap]

unless we see previous day's buyer opt to grab a few more, as we're below yesterday's big parcel price?

There was also a big seller yesterday who may wish to sell more :). Maybe the price was pushed up to 28 cents so that they could do the "deal" at 28 as you must to off market trades between the quotes. (unless that requirement has changed in recent years)

[Balance]

There was also a big seller yesterday who may wish to sell more :). Maybe the price was pushed up to 28 cents so that they could do the "deal" at 28 as you must to off market trades between the quotes. (unless that requirement has changed in recent years)

I suspect that was what happened.

Question in the short term is 'who has the deeper pockets'?

[percy]

Happiness is being "well positioned".
Should RBC share price drop I will add to the wife's small holding I brought in early January @ 23.5cps.
Should RBC sharer price rise, we will share the enjoyment.
Rereading CEO Luke Moriarty speech I am amazed at all the hidden gems,such as "The next fiscal year should see a further lift in earnings yet again,and we will announce to you exactly what our target for the Mar'19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."
I would expect that announcement will be in May,so a nice drop in the share price in April would be most welcome.!

[Leftfield]

Happiness is being "well positioned".
Should RBC share price drop I will add to the wife's small holding I brought in early January @ 23.5cps.
Should RBC sharer price rise, we will share the enjoyment.
Rereading CEO Luke Moriarty speech I am amazed at all the hidden gems,such as "The next fiscal year should see a further lift in earnings yet again,and we will announce to you exactly what our target for the Mar'19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."
I would expect that announcement will be in May,so a nice drop in the share price in April would be most welcome.!

Well said Percy...... just a tab of patience is required.

My average holding price sits at .20c so as you say, we are 'well positioned.' Target SP of .40c (or more) by the end of calendar 2018 very achievable IMHO.

[iceman]

And there were millions and millions offered at 19c not that long ago!

We might be getting close to that again Balance

[Well Endowed]

1.5c bid ask spread, combined with a lull in news has seen this drift a bit lower in my view.

With the trading update due soon, could be back on the trajectory from a month ago and perhaps challenge 30c in the medium term. I'd be happy if it spends another month around these levels (awaiting funds) as a topup is on the cards.

discl: Hold.

[iceman]

1.5c bid ask spread, combined with a lull in news has seen this drift a bit lower in my view.

With the trading update due soon, could be back on the trajectory from a month ago and perhaps challenge 30c in the medium term. I'd be happy if it spends another month around these levels (awaiting funds) as a topup is on the cards.

discl: Hold.

I think the drift in SP shows how little faith and patience the market has with the RBC and it's Directors and wants them to follow words with real results. I do believe they finally are but the market is very impatient with them and understandably so. Meanwhile this share will be very volatile.
Discl: Hold a few

[ari]

This also has to play out first....Rubicon needs to make the final two deferred-settlement payments in
relation to the recent acquisition of 100% of ArborGen and to repay its
outstanding subordinated notes. These payments are to occur prior to 1 July
2018, and total US$21 million. Completion of the proposed transaction will
ensure there are no funding calls on Rubicon shareholders in order to be
able to make these payments, which in turn should remove any RBC share-price
'overhang' that may exist in that regard;

[minimoke]

As a holder I'm not too concerned about this drop. I am more pleased that there is actually some attention being paid to it. For so long there is often no trades at all in a day.

[percy]

As a holder I'm not too concerned about this drop. I am more pleased that there is actually some attention being paid to it. For so long there is often no trades at all in a day.

Yes reasonable liquidity.

[sb9]

Spend some time reading, researching about this company recently and with some help from friendly member left field.

Looked quite impressive to me and also potential this offers. Also read few comments from other fellow members on this thread. Very insightful comments and analysis.

Couldn't help myself dipping my toes on this one. I think lot of patience is required on this one and could do very well over next two years or so. So its a very long term play for me here.

[Balance]

Spend some time reading, researching about this company recently and with some help from friendly member left field.

Looked quite impressive to me and also potential this offers. Also read few comments from other fellow members on this thread. Very insightful comments and analysis.

Couldn't help myself dipping my toes on this one. I think lot of patience is required on this one and could do very well over next two years or so. So its a very long term play for me here.

Certainly will be a long play but like Tenon, could be very rewarding as it is a stock largely ignored by NZ institutions.

You should read through the Tenon thread to get an appreciation of how cynical and skeptical the NZ market is about the two ugly ducklings left over from the breakup of Fletcher Challenge group in 2000!

Some of us were very happy to pick up Tenon even though the stock hardly did anything for quite a while. When it started moving, it was most rewarding indeed.

[Leftfield]

Good on you sb9, welcome to the RBC fan club. Nice to see that RBC gets your tick of approval after such careful research.

Time will tell just how 'well positioned' we are. :t_up:

[sb9]

Good on you sb9, welcome to the RBC fan club. Nice to see that RBC gets your tick of approval after such careful research.

Time will tell just how 'well positioned' we are. :t_up:

Thanks lf, i'm no expert just learning as we go.


Certainly will be a long play but like Tenon, could be very rewarding as it is a stock largely ignored by NZ institutions.

You should read through the Tenon thread to get an appreciation of how cynical and skeptical the NZ market is about the two ugly ducklings left over from the breakup of Fletcher Challenge group in 2000!

Some of us were very happy to pick up Tenon even though the stock hardly did anything for quite a while. When it started moving, it was most rewarding indeed.

Will do Balance, thanks for the advice.

[minimoke]

Spend some time reading, researching about this company recently and with some help from friendly member left field.

Looked quite impressive to me and also potential this offers. Also read few comments from other fellow members on this thread. Very insightful comments and analysis.

Couldn't help myself dipping my toes on this one. I think lot of patience is required on this one and could do very well over next two years or so. So its a very long term play for me here.You could do us a favour and top up at $0.25. Last sale was 24.5 but my dang ANZ securities account has my holding locked on $0.240

[sb9]

You could do us a favour and top up at $0.25. Last sale was 24.5 but my dang ANZ securities account has my holding locked on $0.240

Sorry mate, already got my order filled in few days back :)

[SilverBack]

Certainly will be a long play but like Tenon, could be very rewarding as it is a stock largely ignored by NZ institutions.

You should read through the Tenon thread to get an appreciation of how cynical and skeptical the NZ market is about the two ugly ducklings left over from the breakup of Fletcher Challenge group in 2000!

Some of us were very happy to pick up Tenon even though the stock hardly did anything for quite a while. When it started moving, it was most rewarding indeed.

I recall reading on 4 Jan that ACC have taken up a significant interest and on 8 Jan for BNZ also and so not without institutional interest. Liquidity continues to be dismal all the same. I agree with others that patience is still needed. The burst of interest following the AGM shows what can happen but I think we need for Arborgen to produce growth in profits before the SP really moves. I am not surprised by the slow fall back in price in recent weeks since that burst of interest since it will have been from small holders fired up after the AGM with pronouncements by Luke Moriarty of great prospects now that Rubicon is taking full control of Arborgen.
A name change will help RBC escape the ugly duckling syndrome but progress from Arborgen is the only thing that will make any real difference.
The reason Tenon finally moved is because the US housing market began moving again. Since forestry runs on a 30 year cycle, I cannot see the same short-term impact on Arborgen although if the lumber prices spike up enough then the forestry companies will mill their stock at an earlier stage to take advantage of high prices. That will lead to higher levels of planting in the short term and hence orders for Arborgen. However, this is all based on "if".
Of course, Arborgen's product appeal is superior tree genetics resulting in increased growth rates, higher disease resistance and higher quality lumber. That requires increased marketing and educational activity by Arborgen in order to "sell" their advantages to customers. This is not an over-night exercise but one that should deliver progressive results.

[Well Endowed]

I guess we should be seeing an update here soon?


"The next fiscal year should see a noticeable further lift in earnings yet again, and we will announce toyou exactly what our target is for the Mar’19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."

[blackcap]

I guess we should be seeing an update here soon?


"The next fiscal year should see a noticeable further lift in earnings yet again, and we will announce toyou exactly what our target is for the Mar’19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."

I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?

[percy]

I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?

I too would think the end of May.

[sb9]

I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?

I guess well endowed point was that if they beat their expectations , they might provide an update before they release the actual results in May. I'm hoping that there'll provide an update over next few days as they would know the numbers by now.

[Well Endowed]

I guess well endowed point was that if they beat their expectations , they might provide an update before they release the actual results in May. I'm hoping that there'll provide an update over next few days as they would know the numbers by now.

Yeah - Good news usually is released in a more timely fashion than bad news. All indications in the recent shareholder's address etc is that things were shaping up nicely.

[blackcap]

Yeah - Good news usually is released in a more timely fashion than bad news. All indications in the recent shareholder's address etc is that things were shaping up nicely.

I thought news that was material of any kind, be it good or bad, had to be released immediately under NZX listing rules. Maybe I was mistaken :)

[Well Endowed]

I thought news that was material of any kind, be it good or bad, had to be released immediately under NZX listing rules. Maybe I was mistaken :)


I'm sure any 'bad' news (ie a flatter outlook) would just take a bit longer to validate the numbers and ensure it's fully accurate for release ;)

[t.rexjr]

Mr re-load 83,843 shares; Why not let the price run a little? You have no competition until 28c. Just a thought...

[Balance]

Mr re-load 83,843 shares; Why not let the price run a little? You have no competition until 28c. Just a thought...

Let the market do what it wants to do.

Simply means that RBC is building up a nice sp support base at 24c.

[sb9]

Mr re-load 83,843 shares; Why not let the price run a little? You have no competition until 28c. Just a thought...

Yes re-loading keeps happening until they provide an update to market.

[minimoke]

Pesky wee 24.5's have been soaked up. Hopefully now off to $0.27

[sb9]

Pesky wee 24.5's have been soaked up. Hopefully now off to $0.27

Spoke too soon, just like that they're back on offer... :p

[mikeybycrikey]

Spoke too soon, just like that they're back on offer... :p

Does make me wonder how large a parcel they are actually trying to get rid of, assuming it is all the same seller.

But, I guess when 99k shares is only $24k and daily volume is only about 100k on a good day, it would take a while to unload a few hundred thousand or more shares without taking a bath.

[sb9]

Does make me wonder how large a parcel they are actually trying to get rid of, assuming it is all the same seller.

But, I guess when 99k shares is only $24k and daily volume is only about 100k on a good day, it would take a while to unload a few hundred thousand or more shares without taking a bath.



1
1
9:04:19 am
24.5
2,049,033
$502,013
Off market



Seems like that seller might've been sorted out going by the above cross trade before market open.

[Leftfield]

Bollinger bands tightening.....only a matter of time (he said hopefully!)

[minimoke]

Seat belt now tightened a notch - ready for this little rocket to start taking off.

[madmat]

1
1
9:04:19 am
24.5
2,049,033
$502,013
Off market



Seems like that seller might've been sorted out going by the above cross trade before market open.
Where do you see this type of info sb9? I haven'tseen it on ASB Securities but I am a noob ..

Cheers
Mat

[Xerof]

1
1
9:04:19 am
24.5
2,049,033
$502,013
Off market



Seems like that seller might've been sorted out going by the above cross trade before market open.

Got to remember, a LOT of stale shares were parked away with Insto's and a Billionaire or two at 19/19.5. I would expect a decent amount will be re-distributed around these current levels, for a tidy gain to those buyers. So it might take a while, or it might just take some great news. In the meantime, just relax, it's not going down.

And for the second time, the BNZ does not own RBC in it's own right - read the announcement again. They are held on behalf of one of the recent large buyers, perhaps as security against some funding lines.

Madmat, correct, ASB don't go into such detail. ANZ Securities do though

[sb9]

Where do you see this type of info sb9? I haven'tseen it on ASB Securities but I am a noob ..

Cheers
Mat

You can get that info from Stocknessmonster.com and type code RBC in your search criteria.


Got to remember, a LOT of stale shares were parked away with Insto's and a Billionaire or two at 19/19.5. I would expect a decent amount will be re-distributed around these current levels, for a tidy gain to those buyers. So it might take a while, or it might just take some great news. In the meantime, just relax, it's not going down.

And for the second time, the BNZ does not own RBC in it's own right - read the announcement again. They are held on behalf of one of the recent large buyers, perhaps as security against some funding lines.

Madmat, correct, ASB don't go into such detail. ANZ Securities do though

Agree totally.

[t.rexjr]

Seat belt now tightened a notch - ready for this little rocket to start taking off.

Feel we still need some guidence before this vessel goes too far. I'm finding it a hard one to value and I've followed it for years. Guidence should attract new buyers.

[minimoke]

Where do you see this type of info sb9? I haven'tseen it on ASB Securities but I am a noob ..

Cheers
MatThis is what you can se with ANZ
(Note sale at $0.26!!)

[Xerof]

Feel we still need some guidence before this vessel goes too far. I'm finding it a hard one to value and I've followed it for years. Guidence should attract new buyers.

You're right there T-rex. Moriarty gave a form of guidance at the AGM. Credibility will be shattered if he doesn't follow through.

[sb9]

You're right there T-rex. Moriarty gave a form of guidance at the AGM. Credibility will be shattered if he doesn't follow through.

Yes, market is looking forward for an update and any slight deviation from what they said at AGM would be quite detrimental.

[minimoke]

Yes, market is looking forward for an update and any slight deviation from what they said at AGM would be quite detrimental.Just as a reminder, this is wjhat we are banking on

To repeat Luke’searlier comment, were Rubicon to be trading at book value (i.e. reflective of the carryingvalue of ArborGen), then our share price would be circa NZ40 cents per share. If we candeliver on the upside scenarios discussed in our Annual Review, then the outcome would bemultiples of that again. And in that respect, the critical point is that, now that we own 100%of ArborGen, the outcome is all directly within our control."

[beetills]

I assume based on what he said that 26c would be considered to be a bargain,provided things go right.

[Leftfield]

I assume based on what he said that 26c would be considered to be a bargain,provided things go right.

Much depends on the next update from RBC.....until then holders are 'well positioned.'

[percy]

Much depends on the next update from RBC.....until then holders are 'well positioned.'

I concur.....lol.

[Balance]

I assume based on what he said that 26c would be considered to be a bargain,provided things go right.

26 cents it is and heading higher - stock getting tight and story getting better.

[minimoke]

26 cents it is and heading higher - stock getting tight and story getting better.Finished at $0.27 yesterday. So Im happy with an 8% overall gain so far. Story is still a potentially good one. Next update will be telling. Apart from the risk that this is still a bit of a Penny Dreadful, there is also the very low liquidity. I'm going to find it hard to exit my position if things don't go as I hope.

[Balance]

Finished at $0.27 yesterday. So Im happy with an 8% overall gain so far. Story is still a potentially good one. Next update will be telling. Apart from the risk that this is still a bit of a Penny Dreadful, there is also the very low liquidity. I'm going to find it hard to exit my position if things don't go as I hope.

Very hard indeed to get out as TAM found - without slamming the sp to bargain basement levels.

Which is what gives me confidence with this investment - the investors (Irvin Kessler - 25m shares and Ranjan Tandon - 84m shares) who bought off and took TAM out would have done their homework, well aware of that risk.

In for the ride - RBC's sister company, Tenon and the 200% return it gave some of us - gives me confidence that stocks which are ignored by the market can deliver huge returns when they come good - because the market in NZ is notoriously bad at pricing turnaround stories.

Best example in the last year? Serko - 950% return from its low point last year. How can a market get it that wrong?

[Biscuit]

Just bought a small parcel this morning while I look some more at this one and see if the turn around is real. Not a very active market for a reasonably sized company.

[minimoke]

Just bought a small parcel this morning while I look some more at this one and see if the turn around is real. Not a very active market for a reasonably sized company.Thank You. Just gave me a 1.9% increase in holding value on that trade

[Biscuit]

Thank You. Just gave me a 1.9% increase in holding value on that trade

No worries, happy to do it.

[minimoke]

No worries, happy to do it.Easy come, easy go. dropped down now to my break even point.

[Biscuit]

Easy come, easy go. dropped down now to my break even point.

The lower it goes the better as far as I'm concerned at this point, no hurry yet.

[sb9]

Sellers not budging at the moment, getting close to announcement date perhaps....

[minimoke]

Sellers not budging at the moment, getting close to announcement date perhaps....Another little tickle along with an 8% rise to $0.27 (I could do with all the good news I can get at the moment!)

[BigBob]

Another little tickle along with an 8% rise to $0.27 (I could do with all the good news I can get at the moment!)

Bit more than a tickle... at 30c now on low volume, but still.... a leak somewhere...?

[t.rexjr]

Bit more than a tickle... at 30c now on low volume, but still.... a leak somewhere...?

Sheepers there's some action afoot!

[Leftfield]

Wowee.... getting a tab excited (and I need the distraction from the ATM thread!!)

20% up for the day. Nice, congrats to holders.

[Xerof]

I like it when someone is in a rush to get in - puts a sense of urgency into the frame. Ears are on forward alert, listening for leaks

[ari]

Well bugger me, that made me sit up....over 3 years since we were in that territory!

[percy]

I like it when someone is in a rush to get in - puts a sense of urgency into the frame. Ears are on forward alert, listening for leaks

pssssssssssssssssssst.
Listening to the trees, I suspect it is Ent Fangorn [Treebeard]....

[Biscuit]

Have to say I am struggling a bit with the financial statements. Why are cash payments from customers in the cashflow statements so much higher than revenue? The current numbers don't inspire much confidence ....

disc: very small holding, thinking about adding

[Balance]

Have to say I am struggling a bit with the financial statements. Why are cash payments from customers in the cashflow statements so much higher than revenue? The current numbers don't inspire much confidence ....

disc: very small holding, thinking about adding

Suggest you do plenty more research before you put more money in as RBC has gone through massive changes in every aspect in the last 2 years.

Going through the historical financials is not useful imo.

Basically, it is now Aborgen.

If you think Aborgen has potential - you buy the stock as it is trading below NAB.

[blackcap]

Suggest you do plenty more research before you put more money in as RBC has gone through massive changes in every aspect in the last 2 years.

Going through the historical financials is not useful imo.

Basically, it is now Aborgen.

If you think Aborgen has potential - you buy the stock as it is trading below NAB.

Good points Balance. I went to the latest AGM as a newby (was with a friend) and was interested in the story. I was browsing through the Annual Report and raising all sorts of question mark. My friend then said, forget about that, all that info is pretty much redundant. All that is left is Aborgen. That made a lot more sense. The jury is out now on whether Aborgen will deliver. We should get an update pretty soon when the YE is released.

[iceman]

Hopefully they will formally become one, with the Arborgen name. May give a fresh start in investors mind

[Well Endowed]

Article here regarding Arbogen partnering up with the sOUTH Carolina forestry commision

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180227005059/en/ArborGen-Enters-Partnership-S.C.-Forestry-Commission-Operate


hadn't seen this posted, looks like favourable terms, and a fairly cheap lease for 345acres:

https://www.postandcourier.com/business/south-carolina-handing-control-of-its-last-tree-nursery-to/article_e96a0494-20c7-11e8-902f-732479281778.html

[Biscuit]

Suggest you do plenty more research before you put more money in as RBC has gone through massive changes in every aspect in the last 2 years.

Going through the historical financials is not useful imo.

Basically, it is now Aborgen.

If you think Aborgen has potential - you buy the stock as it is trading below NAB.

Yes, I will do my homework, of course. I agree it is interesting, and probably mis-valued. I like a good story, especially when it involves historical negative emotion, and potential turnaround. The plot looks good but how the story ends depends on the numbers. The numbers are in the financials and the only known financials are historical.

Discl: small holding, looking to add

[Leftfield]

Discl: small holding, looking to add

Best way to start ANY share investment..... add more only if it meets your expectations. Good luck!

(Disc Holder.)

[minimoke]

When I was put onto RBC the things that stuck out for me wer (in brief)
- IP in forestry (uniqueness of position)
- Debt free with funding on tap
- clear of distracting other business assets (tenon etc)
- book value (as of March) of $0.40
- and I reckon potential of a US market listing

So I am now "well positioned"

[blackcap]

How bloody ridiculous of the NZX to do a price enquiry. I mean its gone up from 25 cents to 29 cents in a stock that is thinly traded. Come on NZX you just make yourself look stupid.

[minimoke]

How bloody ridiculous of the NZX to do a price enquiry. I mean its gone up from 25 cents to 29 cents in a stock that is thinly traded. Come on NZX you just make yourself look stupid.Must have been a whole $50,000 or so traded over the past week or so and you get a price enquiry? Its got an underlying value of $0.40. What a bunch of w@ankers.

[whatsup]

How bloody ridiculous of the NZX to do a price enquiry. I mean its gone up from 25 cents to 29 cents in a stock that is thinly traded. Come on NZX you just make yourself look stupid.

So imagine the questions about ATM that they should ask !

[Biscuit]

When I was put onto RBC the things that stuck out for me wer (in brief)
- IP in forestry (uniqueness of position)
- Debt free with funding on tap
- clear of distracting other business assets (tenon etc)
- book value (as of March) of $0.40
- and I reckon potential of a US market listing

So I am now "well positioned"

I see two stories: 1. the restructure, as you say potentially has strengthened their position (but, to play devil's advocate, companies that have managed to structure themselves into a weak position in the past might not be trusted to restructure themselves into a stronger position); 2. the idea that they have done a lot of research and have built up valuable IP that is now going to be unleashed on the market (replacing low value seedlings with high value seedlings, therefore improving profitability). There is some reason to believe that story I think.

[ratkin]

haha speeding ticket for a few quids worth.
Lets hope they are right to be suspicious, but I doubt it.

The anticipation when you see a new announcement, followed by the let down when it nothing

[Xerof]

It looked to me like the buyer for about 250k who was sitting at 24 or 25, just decided to pay market to get them. You're right about surveillance team jumping at shadows though, a bit to enthusiastic.

[Balance]

It looked to me like the buyer for about 250k who was sitting at 24 or 25, just decided to pay market to get them. You're right about surveillance team jumping at shadows though, a bit to enthusiastic.

Either the buyer has too much money, is naive in the extreme or is anticipating some really good news.

Balance date changed so reporting on half year should be next week.

Chance of an IPO (compliance listing would be good) now that the decks are cleared of all the debris of split shareholdings, employee lawsuits etc - and the company is now cashflow positive and EBITDA positive.

Anyway, am personally very comfortable this is going to be a several bagger heading into the future. :D

[Biscuit]

Either the buyer has too much money, is naive in the extreme or is anticipating some really good news.

:D

Or any combination of the above

[biker]

How bloody ridiculous of the NZX to do a price enquiry. I mean its gone up from 25 cents to 29 cents in a stock that is thinly traded. Come on NZX you just make yourself look stupid.

Great post. Totally agree.

[biker]

...........Anyway, am personally very comfortable this is going to be a several bagger heading into the future. :D

I think you’re right Balance but I have far too many shares waiting for it.

There is value there. Can Mr Moriarty engineer shareholder’s access to it?
Good to know he and Mark Taylor have considerable skin in the game.

[Xerof]

Balance date changed so reporting on half year should be next week.

Might explain the urgency for the buying then eh Balance? surely not.....

[sb9]

Seems as though the squeeze is on now....should be past 30c soon I reckon.

[winner69]

Does that Note 15 mentioned say Arborgen is really worth US$345m ...much more than want is in the books

[Leftfield]

A lot to like in today's announcement...... just a tab wordy!!

"We previously announced our EBITDA2 target for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2018 as being forArborGen to double the US-GAAP EBITDA result achieved in the prior year – i.e. to achieve US-GAAPEBITDA of US$3.4 million (~US$9 million pre R&D). We are happy to now report that, despite anextremely tough hurricane season that prevailed during the year and which adversely impactedseedling sales by ~20 million units, ArborGen managed to record a US-GAAP EBITDA result for the 12months to 31 March 2018 of US$4.3 million (pre transaction-related costs and impairment costs3), ona gross profit of US$18 million. Excluding R&D of US$5.6 million, EBITDA was ~US$10 million (all figuresstated under US-GAAP, pre-depreciation). These numbers are ahead of our previously announcedearnings targets, in what turned out to be a very difficult operating environment, so we are verypleased with the result....


Looking to our next fiscal year target, we have said that we want to see the prior year’s US$1.7 millionEBITDA result double and then double again, so a long way of saying we are now targeting4,5 a US-GAAP EBITDA result approaching US$7 million for the year ended 31 March 2019. "

[minimoke]

A lot to like in today's announcement...... just a tab wordy!!


Very wordy and complicated. Granted not helped by intermingling of business and change in reporting periods. But I think for a start they need to try harder in simplifying shareholder communication.

They seem to think co still undervalued by 35%- but a bit of a positive with ACC taking a stake. (But then they take a stake in anything). Good to see sales up - but a risk with MCP bagging problems resulting in lower inventory.

While US tax position may add abit of value I wouldn't put any on NZ's forest planting objectives.

I'm still OK holding - but looking for a clearer picture in 12 months

[t.rexjr]

EBITDA doubling, then doubling again (400%). That forward looking EPS is disproportionate to current SP in that case.

The trouble with trees is they take so damn long to grow...

[minimoke]

Looks like market doesn't appreciate the news today. Down 5% so far. I think its more the packaging than the message.

[ari]

Don’t really think Labour’s trees are going to drive it....

[Biscuit]

Looks like market doesn't appreciate the news today. Down 5% so far. I think its more the packaging than the message.

The message is a bit confused, not helped by the different accounting systems and changing reporting dates. On the plus side the strategy of increasing the proportion of higher value seedlings is still in tact with more growth to come; on the negative side it is still not exactly generating cash.

[sb9]

Very wordy and complicated. Granted not helped by intermingling of business and change in reporting periods. But I think for a start they need to try harder in simplifying shareholder communication.

They seem to think co still undervalued by 35%- but a bit of a positive with ACC taking a stake. (But then they take a stake in anything). Good to see sales up - but a risk with MCP bagging problems resulting in lower inventory.

While US tax position may add abit of value I wouldn't put any on NZ's forest planting objectives.

I'm still OK holding - but looking for a clearer picture in 12 months

Yes, need to spend sometime to digest all the vocabulary and numbers from today's announcement.

[percy]

I gave the result the big tick.
Business model is now working,and gaining traction..
Plenty of growth in this sector.
Low debt.
Pleasing to see directors' remuneration reduced.
The Chairman's outlook for the future was extremely positive.

[winner69]

They point to Note 15 in Accounts to see the real value in Arborgen

Your homework tonight is to digest that note and report back what they want you to understand

[minimoke]

They point to Note 15 to see the real value in Arborgen

Your homework tonight is to digest that note and report back what they want you to understandI always fall back on the standard answer when there is a lack of clarity.

The answer to Aborogens (oops I mean Rubicons) future is 42.

[t.rexjr]

Note 15 / 487,908,343 shares

Nothing to see here...

[winner69]

Note 15 / 487,908,343 shares

Nothing to see here...

The Note 15 in the Accounts I see is a discussion on the value of Arborgen

[Hectorplains]

The Note 15 in the Accounts I see is a discussion on the value of Arborgen

Absolutely it is. Worded like pea soup it be though, meaning hard to be found. Much reading, yes.

[Leftfield]

I'm not too fussed on Note 15, but rather like Note 25.

Operating Revenue of $6 mill for 15 months ended Sep 17, grew to $35 Mill for 6 months to Mar 18.

So we can expect revenue of around $70 Mill in FY 19?

Looks like patience needed but still a HOLD to me.

[blackcap]

I'm not too fussed on Note 15, but rather like Note 25.

Operating Revenue of $6 mill for 15 months ended Sep 17, grew to $35 Mill for 6 months to Mar 18.

So we can expect revenue of around $70 Mill in FY 19?

Looks like patience needed but still a HOLD to me.

I'm not sure they were talking about doubling revenue, rather EBITDA wasn't it? All this prose is getting me a bit confused.
Will be holding for the next half yearly update at this stage.

[t.rexjr]

Absolutely it is. Worded like pea soup it be though, meaning hard to be found. Much reading, yes.

Pea soup indeed. Perhaps those note 15 valuations are more poignant if relating it to the touted future IPO. But yes, if I read the tea leaves correctly, they see it valued at 80c - $1 per share - and hint thats conservatively.

[Leftfield]

I'm not sure they were talking about doubling revenue, rather EBITDA wasn't it? All this prose is getting me a bit confused.
Will be holding for the next half yearly update at this stage.

IMO Note 15 is about Operating Revenue not EBITDA (but welcome others interpretation)

Operating Revenue of $6 mill for 15 months ended Sep 17, grew to $35 Mill for 6 months to Mar 18.

So can we expect revenue of around $70 Mill in FY 19?

I agree, patience needed for the next 6 months....but still a HOLD to me.

[iceman]

The report sounds encouraging and they definitely seem on the right track. I think there is little doubt that we have a very good upside potential IF ArborGen can achieve what they are setting out to do.
One thing is clear from the report, as has been canvassed on this thread recently, reading any historical financials for Rubicon is now a total waste of time. Us shareholders are now invested in what is basically a technology (IP) start up business that has already done most of the research and development and is already marketing the products in several countries. And it has reached this point well funded for the near future.
I bought a few more yesterday after reading the report.

But, one thing bugs me a little or maybe I'm misunderstanding something. The valuation report they mention estimates seedling sales in the US to reach 1 Billion in 10 years time, of which ArborGen is expected to have a 40% market share or 400 million seedlings. But they sold 273 million seedlings in the US last year (347 million worldwide) so growing that to 400 million doesn't seem to be a spectacular growth rate, only 50% over 10 years. Or am I missing something ?

[minimoke]

Or am I missing something ?Yes - more on this later

[minimoke]

Right. I like the report enough to buy some more and someone has come to play and taken up my bid. Bought more at .26 after previous buy at .25 so I'm not buying the dip instead taking a measured punt on the 12 month future. heres where I see it - though not a full analysis.

The report had a lot of words. A heck of a lot of words. So I have taken the approach they must mean something - a bit of divining the tea leaves on my part.

Does the US GAAP reasoning need to be detailed to such an extent. I dont think so especially if company already knows that is what shareholders already want. So reading a report "in a US listing situation" gets my attention.

Then there's the "waffle" in note 15 about amounts owing to partners if Rubicon sell down Aborgen by 30 June 2018 and the bit about Celfor warrants and again we see IPO mentioned. So I am left wondering if one way of maximising a return to shareholders is selling Arborgen or a part thereof.

Then there is the numbers - they all look like they are heading in the right direction. Especially for a company that appears to be undervalued.

The overall sense I get is a wordy but conservative outlook. They want to see a 10% increase sales off last years hurricane affected sales. If it was me I would want to see 10% on top of total potential sales - weather risks should be mitigated. So I reckon target will be easily achieved (weather risk aside)

As for US market share growth over 10 years may not seem overly ambitious. But it is higher value stock. Add to that 30m (potential per annum additional in NZ) plus 10% per year growth in existing markets plus growth into new markets which much be on agenda then 10 years time these figures will show much more spectacular growth.

I like their debts figures and funding opportunities and debt to equity ratio on a low share price.

Also Directors had a Plan and they appear to have delivered on that plan without obvious manipulation of figures (the tricky reporting periods aside) so that gets a tick from me.

RBC is my one real "speculator" in my higher risk portfolio. Through my rose tinted glasses and overly optimistic genes I see a positive report. Given that, I figured it would be worth throwing more skin in the game. At the moment I am 2% up and its 10% of my portfolio. I think RBC has a better chance of doubling in value in the near term than any other holding. Equally it could go tits up. But my overall portfolio profit means I can loose 100% of any one holding and still be in the positive.

Edit - bugger now someone has come in at .25 so I am loosing already!

[Leftfield]

Appreciate your view Minimoke. So many words to wade through. Interesting thought re potential USA listing. Speculative at this stage, but a nice possibility. Like you I suspect the projected sales figs are conservative. I also like that some key the directors have a lot of 'skin in the game.'

RBC is currently 6% of my portfolio, and on today's SP I'm up 14%. I rate it a hold until the next report, but will watch carefully. I rate RBC as having minimal downside, but HUGE upside.... we just need patience.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy more, as there is a chance that the SP may drift lower over the next 6 months 'cos a lot can happen between now and the next announcement.

[blackcap]

Just a word of warning, what I heard at the AGM was pretty much indicative that a US listing is not going to happen. Well not in the near term.... (well that is what I got out of it, others that were maybe there can help out here)

[iceman]

Thanks mini and others for the comments. At least we all agree with the Directors that the Annual Report is "both unusual and unhelpful".
I do agree minimoke that the growth forecast in future years cover ANZ, Brasil and hopefully new markets in addition to the mainstay US market. But I am still a little surprised that they are not forecasting more growth in the US for the next 10 years and sadly we can not rely on Shane Jones being much of a driver of growth for us :-)
RBC actually sold less seedlings in the FY18 year than they did in FY17, mainly due to a bad hurricane season in the US which they blame for a loss of sales of 20m seedlings. But one has to wonder whether we should accept that we will be affected more frequently due to climate related issues and I point out that they said January this year was very cold and February unseasonally hot, which lead to very short pollination window which may/will impact future seedlings sales. So maybe this year wasn't that unusual.

blackcap thanks for the titbit from the AGM. If they are not expecting a US listing, which I don't have any problems with, I wonder whether there is any point in keeping RBC and ArborGen as separate entities. Why not just merge them, simplify the operation and cut costs ?

Overall though, I am quite pleased with the way RBC is travelling but the proof will be in the pudding.

Discl: Holder and accumulating

[blackcap]

blackcap thanks for the titbit from the AGM. If they are not expecting a US listing, which I don't have any problems with, I wonder whether there is any point in keeping RBC and ArborGen as separate entities. Why not just merge them, simplify the operation and cut costs ?



Discl: Holder and accumulating

That question was put to the AGM. Its not that simple. Who would be the shareholders in the new entity? Under what jurisdiction is this new entity?

But basically a US listing would be problematic. With 1 shareholder Arborgen would not be able to list on the Nasdaq.....
Conversely, would all NZ shareholders really want to hold US scrip instead of a CSN company?
So many headaches in US listing.
As for merging, I did ask about the double dipping of directors execs etc, they said they were working on that.

[minimoke]

That question was put to the AGM. Its not that simple. Who would be the shareholders in the new entity? Under what jurisdiction is this new entity?

But basically a US listing would be problematic. With 1 shareholder Arborgen would not be able to list on the Nasdaq.....
Conversely, would all NZ shareholders really want to hold US scrip instead of a CSN company?
So many headaches in US listing.
As for merging, I did ask about the double dipping of directors execs etc, they said they were working on that.I'm not sure I understand.

Shareholders of merged entity would surely be current shareholders in RBC. There is no one else.

What jurisdiction is RBC. There is your answer for the merged company jurisdiction - unless it is beneficial to have an alternative jurisdiction.

There wouldn't be one shareholder in a merged company listing on nasdax - there would be all the RBC shareholders. But they alone may not meet NASDAQ requirements.

I don't care about headaches. There are pills for those and director pay helps pay for those pills.. Take the line that offers best value to shareholders is a good pill.

(Thanks for the report back!)

[blackcap]

I'm not sure I understand.

Shareholders of merged entity would surely be current shareholders in RBC. There is no one else.

What jurisdiction is RBC. There is your answer for the merged company jurisdiction - unless it is beneficial to have an alternative jurisdiction.

There wouldn't be one shareholder in a merged company listing on nasdax - there would be all the RBC shareholders. But they alone may not meet NASDAQ requirements.

I don't care about headaches. There are pills for those and director pay helps pay for those pills.. Take the line that offers best value to shareholders is a good pill.

(Thanks for the report back!)

Not 100% sure either what I was saying about the merged entity but that is what the directors were banging on about at the AGM. Tax implications were mentioned as well. I have tried to locate my notes but to no avail. Management did make a compelling enough case as to why a merger is not happening immediately. But they were looking to cut costs. Basically RBC is a holding company and does not require a CEO, CFO, and a bunch of other exec people.

Nasdaq requirements out of the question (too small etc) so that route cannot be taken.

[minimoke]

Basically RBC is a holding company .
That is the way i see it. Which is also why I see Arborogen as a stand alone as a good idea as it can be nicely packaged up and onsold. RBC can stay as a shell / investment company with proceeds from Aborogen being returned to RBC shareholders or there next business challenge.

[Biscuit]

B
IMO Note 15 is about Operating Revenue not EBITDA (but welcome others interpretation)

Operating Revenue of $6 mill for 15 months ended Sep 17, grew to $35 Mill for 6 months to Mar 18.

So can we expect revenue of around $70 Mill in FY 19?

I agree, patience needed for the next 6 months....but still a HOLD to me.

Back in the eighties I lost more than a few dollars on a couple of companies that had large and spectacularly growing profits and then went tits up without a dollar left for investors. EBITA and revenue growth are great but mean not a lot without positive operating cashflow. Growth and higher margins should lead eventually to positive operating cashflow but they are already selling a lot of trees and a lot of those trees are at higher margins so how much upside is there really?

[winner69]

RBC have Arborgen in their books at $124m. That Note 15 says if they updated a few things like tax etc and applied a more realistic discount rate it’s really worth $345m plus

Have faith in those calculations and RBC book value is about 70 cents

7

[ari]

RBC have Arborgen in their books at $124m. That Note 15 says if they updated a few things like tax etc and applied a more realistic discount rate it’s really worth $345m plus

Have faith in those calculations and RBC book value is about 70 cents

7

And I require every cent....first 4 parcels purchased 2004/05 @ an average price of .84c and I thought I was on to it!

[Biscuit]

RBC have Arborgen in their books at $124m. That Note 15 says if they updated a few things like tax etc and applied a more realistic discount rate it’s really worth $345m plus

Have faith in those calculations and RBC book value is about 70 cents

7

I have no faith. I particularly do not trust managers and executives. These days I think you can trust the numbers to some extent when they are presented clearly and simply. A good comparison would be the FPH books where the accounts are straightforward. Similar companies in some way, so very different in other ways.

[winner69]

Years ago around the turn of this century as part of an ‘innovation jaunt’ around the country we were shown the amazing innovative work that Arborgen we’re doing at the time.

Forestry was never going to be the same again with all these GE trees

It was more then science back then but at least it’s developed into an ‘industrial’ process of planting seedlings for sale.

Because of that exposure I’ve always followed Arborgen’s progress with interest but it seems good things take time ....an awful lot of time.

Makes you wonder if they will ever be commercially viable.

[t.rexjr]

Globally, loblolly and radiata advanced-genetics pine sales as a percentage of ArborGen’s total unit sales increased from 29% to 34%.

The key to commercial viability is increasing the advanced-genetics %. Total sales seem to be fairly constant. From my understanding of the whole planting process, a larger % of advanced-genetics in the industries total crop would see a decline in the total number of seedlings required in a like for like environment. This due to the advanced-genetics modus operandi of more mature trees from the same amount of seedlings and more often. A bit of a catch 22 conundrum there...

If you manage to track down a price list (The world wide web seems to have eaten the one I found a year or two ago) you will see that advanced-genetics seedlings carry a remarkably substantial premium. I assume being net earnings and operational cash positive (Forecast from now onward) that each % increase of advanced-genetics sales would translate very favourably with it's superior margin...

[blackcap]

That premium was mentioned at the AGM. From memory its 6 cents for a normal seedling, 25 cents for a Arborgen one.

[iceman]

That premium was mentioned at the AGM. From memory its 6 cents for a normal seedling, 25 cents for a Arborgen one.

That's a very substantial premium and the upside potential quite large when one is selling close to 400m seedlings pa. Do we know what percentage of seedlings sold today by ArborGen are advanced-genetics ?
And the other issue is, as t.rexjr points out above, is whether advanced-genetics seedlings will grow the overall market or just result in fewer and more efficient seedlings being sold. I'd expect the former.

[t.rexjr]

That premium was mentioned at the AGM. From memory its 6 cents for a normal seedling, 25 cents for a Arborgen one.

Sounds about right. I had 400% in my mind but didn't want to quote that figure without being able to find where it originated. It'd be interesting to know the margin difference. If they're both getting say a 50% margin the difference in net earnings would be considerable.

[t.rexjr]

That's a very substantial premium and the upside potential quite large when one is selling close to 400m seedlings pa. Do we know what percentage of seedlings sold today by ArborGen are advanced-genetics ?
And the other issue is, as t.rexjr points out above, is whether advanced-genetics seedlings will grow the overall market or just result in fewer and more efficient seedlings being sold. I'd expect the former.

50% less trees at 200% more profit shouldn't be a big issue given operational costs would be fairly similar

[t.rexjr]

50% less trees at 200% more profit shouldn't be a big issue given operational costs would be fairly similar

Remembering also that the 34% advanced genetic sales is 'Arborgen sales' not industry sales. If these seedlings are the future then maintaining sales volume is quite plausible.

[winner69]

Taking the adoption to high genetic from 60% to 80% from year 10 adds $55m to their $345m ‘valuation’

We’re talking 80 cents now

All too good to be true? Who knows

Best and quickest outcome for shareholders has to IPO / sell Arborgen (to greater fools?)

Otherwise I fear years and years of if only and it’s gunna to do this etc.

[blackcap]

Taking the adoption to high genetic from 60% to 80% from year 10 adds $55m to their $345m ‘valuation’

We’re talking 80 cents now

All too good to be true? Who knows

Best and quickest outcome for shareholders has to IPO / sell Arborgen (to greater fools?)

Otherwise I fear years and years of if only and it’s gunna to do this etc.

The one bit I do not get, hopefully someone can still explain it to me. If Arborgen has such a great valuation (as per auditors notes etc) then why did the Arborgen shareholders sell it to Rubicon for a song and a dance?

[winner69]

The one bit I do not get, hopefully someone can still explain it to me. If Arborgen has such a great valuation (as per auditors notes etc) then why did the Arborgen shareholders sell it to Rubicon for a song and a dance?

Not for a song and dance ...officially a ‘bargain purchase’

But a very good question BP

[t.rexjr]

The one bit I do not get, hopefully someone can still explain it to me. If Arborgen has such a great valuation (as per auditors notes etc) then why did the Arborgen shareholders sell it to Rubicon for a song and a dance?

It explains they were bound by governing agreements in the Annual report


The reason the purchase price, in this instance, does not reflect the fair value of the ArborGen business acquired is because an orderly sales process was not run for the business. This was due to the unique nature of the then governing ArborGen shareholders’ agreement, which included strong pre-emptive rights overexisting partners’ interests in the event of a sale, and also minority veto rights in favour of the remaining partner. This meant that a 50.01% ownership interest would not have bought effective control of the business. Given Rubicon was not prepared to forgo these protective provisions, this in turn meant that the exiting partners were effectively unable to run a sales process for their respective shareholdings.

Exiting partners were hamstrung. Prior announcements by Rubicon stated the frustration with the partners lack of interest in the business and the inability for Rubicon to drive it. I always thought that was a bit of deflection, but it may well have been true and those partners were just waiting for a chance to exit. Given the setup that was only possible when Rubicon were in a position to buy it.

Why the lack of interest who knows. 17 years is a long time to remain enthusiastic...

[Xerof]

I tend to agree with the view of the Directors on this one. They got it at bargain basement prices, due to the structure of pre-emptive rights.

We shareholders now need to wait for the market to come to this conclusion also. IMO, the value could be extracted by an IPO, but apparently they aren't on this platform yet. They could get rid of the replication of governance IMO, by merging the 2 entities, and putting the R BoD on the pension, with the Yanks becoming part of A BoD

[minimoke]

Up 2% today. Probably worth another Price Enquiry. What happened to the last one?

[Sgt Pepper]

Up 2% today. Probably worth another Price Enquiry. What happened to the last one?

Could some kind person walk this very patient Rubicon shareholder through the process should Arborgen be floated in the USA and how value would flow to NZ shareholders.

[Balance]

Could some kind person walk this very patient Rubicon shareholder through the process should Arborgen be floated in the USA and how value would flow to NZ shareholders.

Rubicon is already pretty much Arborgen, but with the residual potential liabilities etc etc of being a depository of all kinds of left-overs from the breakup of Fletcher Challenge in the dark days of breakup.

A float of Arbogen on its own will be the only way that US investors will embrace the stock - US board, US management and principally US shareholders.

So the float will release value to RBC and what RBC shareholders get will be a capital repayment of said value, less any residual liabilities and winding up costs.

That's my understanding.

Others may have other views and understandings.

[minimoke]

Could some kind person walk this very patient Rubicon shareholder through the process should Arborgen be floated in the USA and how value would flow to NZ shareholders.Back in 2013 the Chairman said "In terms of ArborGen, our objective is clear – i.e. to have the company independentlylisted on an international stock exchange." Today there seems to be doubt about that objective. But if it remains, a decision needs to be made on just which Stock exchange to list on. That exchange will have its own rules like minimum revenue, number of free shareholders size of capital etc.

If listing is no longer n the agenda then I expect that another way of "And, as a result, value recognition over time well beyond that currentlyimplied within Rubicon’s share price today, should result." wil be

[ari]

Every little bit helps.....at least Arborgen is at the front end of the growing cycle...https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12074112

[minimoke]

From todays presentation

“The productivity revolution in agriculture will be repeated in forestry... the agriculture ‘winner’ was the First-Mover” likening Rubicon with Monsanto. Brave thought leading paradigm shifting words

Apparently “ArborGen is well positioned” – those are words we like to hear!

Current share price = $0.25. Annual report Book value = $0.43. Mid case value $0.98.

Another presentation, which is a bit of a mess like the Annual Report. But likely worth spending the time and going through the detail. Its quite interesting!

[winner69]

From todays presentation

“The productivity revolution in agriculture will be repeated in forestry... the agriculture ‘winner’ was the First-Mover” likening Rubicon with Monsanto. Brave thought leading paradigm shifting words

Apparently “ArborGen is well positioned” – those are words we like to hear!

Current share price = $0.25. Annual report Book value = $0.43. Mid case value $0.98.

Another presentation, which is a bit of a mess like the Annual Report. But likely worth spending the time and going through the detail. Its quite interesting!

A bit like a Pacific Edge preso

[beetills]

A quick flick thru shows plenty of positives,now for a real read of it.
Is it enough to encourage a sp spurt?

[minimoke]

A bit like a Pacific Edge presoHmm - maybe a bit harsh. They seem to be delivering on what they said they would. The test will be will they keep delivering. Hopefully no hurricane excuses this year - other than that there should be no opportunity for excuse. I'm comfortable with current holding but want to see a bit more progress before I would consider buying more.

[blackcap]

A bit like a Pacific Edge preso

The bit that got me slightly concerned was I asked Moriarty at the last AGM if he knew David Darling. Yes he said, used to be a student of mine.....

[winner69]

The bit that got me slightly concerned was I asked Moriarty at the last AGM if he knew David Darling. Yes he said, used to be a student of mine.....

That’s so cool

[blackcap]

Just checked the market price and cap on both RBC and PEB. They are almost identical. Spooky.

[Balance]

Just checked the market price and cap on both RBC and PEB. They are almost identical. Spooky.

One has been on the way up and the other on the way down.

The share overhang in one stock has been taken out while there are several potential big stock holders creating overhang in the other.

One has turned EBITDA positive while the other is still bleeding cash.

Etc

Etc

Etc.

No guesses which one I am in and which one has given performance in recent years.

[blackcap]

One has been on the way up and the other on the way down.

The share overhang in one stock has been taken out while there are several potential big stock holders creating overhang in the other.

One has turned EBITDA positive while the other is still bleeding cash.

Etc

Etc

Etc.

No guesses which one I am in and which one has given performance in recent years.

Not disagreeing Balance, just noticing. I am in RBC too and would wager that the divergence between the two companies continues. Did not really like the update today, but have committed to an 18 month trajectory and after FY19 will make up my mind whether to go balls deep or exit.

[minimoke]

Why not throw MGL into the mix. An equally invalid comparison. Other than it to is trading at $0.24

[Balance]

From todays presentation

“The productivity revolution in agriculture will be repeated in forestry... the agriculture ‘winner’ was the First-Mover” likening Rubicon with Monsanto. Brave thought leading paradigm shifting words

Apparently “ArborGen is well positioned” – those are words we like to hear!

Current share price = $0.25. Annual report Book value = $0.43. Mid case value $0.98.

Another presentation, which is a bit of a mess like the Annual Report. But likely worth spending the time and going through the detail. Its quite interesting!

The critical thing is that RBC is making presentations which means management are now very confident about the story and has a story to tell.

Also, with the huge overhang safely in the hands of longer term shareholders, just needs one or several institutions to get interested and this stock will fly.

[biker]

Shaping up to be a re-run of Tenon - with more upside.

[t.rexjr]

Not so subtle HC downramp there "winner":t_down:

By golly gosh, they do need to work on a reader freindly communiqué. I'm a sucker for pretty pictures and that was just hard work...

Supply constraints need to be sorted asap. Selling all you can produce is great!... unless current production is only seeing you break even...:mellow:.

50mil current Eucalyptus sales in a potential 600-900mil market within Brazil. 'Well positioned'! Sounds like Eucalyptus varieties currently sold in Brazil are all under license and not Arborgens own?
Projecting Brazil Loblolly market to near double in size, with current market share only 11%. Should see some decent growth here. A 30% market share would see it quadruple+ current sales

Still baffles me why the world doesn't embrace GE. Look at those beautiful big circles all huddled together on slide 6! It will happen sooner than later is my guess. Head can only stay in sand for so long before breathing gets difficult.

I'm a believer. In it for the long haul under current assumptions.

[ratkin]

Basically the summary on the last page and page 14 are all that is needed, rest is just pretty pictures.

[iceman]

Agree ratkin the summary really has it all in understandable format. Yet again a fairly hard report to read. But the important parts are that we now have a positive EBIDTA and cashflow which should significantly increase quite quickly. We have a ready to use world leading technology in an industry with large opportunity where we have a fisrt mover advantage. We have no known global competitiors and none are likely to be established quickly.
But on the negative we have capacity constrains for the next 2 years and a complicated company structure with a history of failures and negative sentiment. I believe these are behind us but the market doesn´t, yet.
I am concerned about political and economical uncertainties in Brasil so hope major focus will be on the US, despite an unstable President :-) I wonder if any of his new tariffs are on imported lumber !

The Board need to quickly eliminate all double up of overhead costs as well as drive faster growth. That´s what the market wants to see, not pages after pages of examples of why they think the SP is too low. We got that. Now get on with doing what´s needed to lift the SP, more sales and more profit.

[Joshuatree]

How long has this been going on(think thats a song), promises made and reprised, just little bit longer dear. Rubicon like tenon was ,is more like a cross between Dads army and a dating site addiction isntit?;) Chartwise it looks like the climax was in 2011 and the addiction of holding is to find a way back to those pleasurable heights continually promised but so far never delivered. Im not biased, im into trees.:D

[sb9]

Agree ratkin the summary really has it all in understandable format. Yet again a fairly hard report to read. But the important parts are that we now have a positive EBIDTA and cashflow which should significantly increase quite quickly. We have a ready to use world leading technology in an industry with large opportunity where we have a fisrt mover advantage. We have no known global competitiors and none are likely to be established quickly.
But on the negative we have capacity constrains for the next 2 years and a complicated company structure with a history of failures and negative sentiment. I believe these are behind us but the market doesn´t, yet.
I am concerned about political and economical uncertainties in Brasil so hope major focus will be on the US, despite an unstable President :-) I wonder if any of his new tariffs are on imported lumber !

The Board need to quickly eliminate all double up of overhead costs as well as drive faster growth. That´s what the market wants to see, not pages after pages of examples of why they think the SP is too low. We got that. Now get on with doing what´s needed to lift the SP, more sales and more profit.

Yes, missed to read the preso y'day due to other commitments and being away from computer. With this announcement i'm picking the sp to move into 30c range over next few months.

[Balance]

Yes, missed to read the preso y'day due to other commitments and being away from computer. With this announcement i'm picking the sp to move into 30c range over next few months.

Not that many stocks in the market which has the potential to put on 200% in the next 3 to 5 years.

RBC is a good story now that a lot of the legacy issues have been sorted out.

[minimoke]

1 miserly trade today and we see a 5.4% drop in price. Time for a price enquiry NZX - especially given its on $190 worth of trade

[SilverBack]

How long has this been going on(think thats a song), promises made and reprised, just little bit longer dear. Rubicon like tenon was ,is more like a cross between Dads army and a dating site addiction isntit?;) Chartwise it looks like the climax was in 2011 and the addiction of holding is to find a way back to those pleasurable heights continually promised but so far never delivered. Im not biased, im into trees.:D

Hi Joshua,
I agree that the history has been pathetic. Nevertheless. I think that RBC is now a different company. Tenon is no longer in the picture (not that it was bad going forward) but what is more significant is that RBC now owns Arborgen 100% without restrictions from less interested industry shareholders. The latest presentation shows the potential of Arborgen and we now have some significant shareholders from the NZ institutional arena.
RBC is now Arborgen. Arborgen deals in markets with longer timeframes (ie the growth of trees). Apart from that, it has to sell its advantages over the other suppliers of seedlings. The controlled genetics story is compelling but the market gain for foresters takes time. Arborgen/RBC has to educate and convince foresters that its genetic base really does deliver increased production and profits to foresters.
I think there is good potential for RBC going forward but that it will take a bit more time for that to be expressed in the investment statistics.

[Balance]

Hi Joshua,
I agree that the history has been pathetic. Nevertheless. I think that RBC is now a different company. Tenon is no longer in the picture (not that it was bad going forward) but what is more significant is that RBC now owns Arborgen 100% without restrictions from less interested industry shareholders. The latest presentation shows the potential of Arborgen and we now have some significant shareholders from the NZ institutional arena.
RBC is now Arborgen. Arborgen deals in markets with longer timeframes (ie the growth of trees). Apart from that, it has to sell its advantages over the other suppliers of seedlings. The controlled genetics story is compelling but the market gain for foresters takes time. Arborgen/RBC has to educate and convince foresters that its genetic base really does deliver increased production and profits to foresters.
I think there is good potential for RBC going forward but that it will take a bit more time for that to be expressed in the investment statistics.

Timing is everything in investment as well as time in investing.

A year ago, anyone could have bought as many RBC shares at 19c as they wanted - and everybody knew who and why the selling was relentless and in huge volumes.

Those who bought have made 42% gain - enough to shout from the roof top.

Now, the share price can be seen to be reacting to any good news or presentations by the company. An excellent sign that the stock is attracting real interest.

So, like Tenon, it's a matter now of riding the share up as more in the market feel the need to get a few stock in a market increasingly hard to find bargains.

[Balance]

The view from across the ditch.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/pgg-wrightson-bidders-sow-seeds-of-doubt-20180625-h11uno

Firewall.

Please gives us the gist of what they are saying.

[t.rexjr]

Firewall.

Please gives us the gist of what they are saying.

Talking about suitors for PGG Wrightson. Not really much applicable to Rubicon other than the seed division may get sold separately depending on who's in the running

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320079

To all the enthusiasts of Rubicon/ArborGen please read through Chairman's letter on the enclosed Annual Report with particular emphasis on Note 15 to annual accounts. Lots of numbers and transaction details to digest through, take your time and DYOR.

[minimoke]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320079

To all the enthusiasts of Rubicon/ArborGen please read through Chairman's letter on the enclosed Annual Report with particular emphasis on Note 15 to annual accounts. Lots of numbers and transaction details to digest through, take your time and DYOR.
Discussion on this started a page or two back

[Joshuatree]

Hi Joshua,
I agree that the history has been pathetic. Nevertheless. I think that RBC is now a different company. Tenon is no longer in the picture (not that it was bad going forward) but what is more significant is that RBC now owns Arborgen 100% without restrictions from less interested industry shareholders. The latest presentation shows the potential of Arborgen and we now have some significant shareholders from the NZ institutional arena.
RBC is now Arborgen. Arborgen deals in markets with longer timeframes (ie the growth of trees). Apart from that, it has to sell its advantages over the other suppliers of seedlings. The controlled genetics story is compelling but the market gain for foresters takes time. Arborgen/RBC has to educate and convince foresters that its genetic base really does deliver increased production and profits to foresters.
I think there is good potential for RBC going forward but that it will take a bit more time for that to be expressed in the investment statistics.

Thanks for that and good luck , like your objectiveness which im lacking here and the story may have changed. However when ever i see the word potential now the hoary old cynic in me says beware , take care and tread slowly so i miss some opps and save myself from others.cheers

[minimoke]

Thanks for that and good luck , like your objectiveness which im lacking here and the story may have changed. However when ever i see the word potential now the hoary old cynic in me says beware , take care and tread slowly so i miss some opps and save myself from others.cheers
I get interested when I read "potential" "IP" and "only people in the world who......