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Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:13 AM
Just closed my long from 1.1986 at 1.2248, for lots of money:D

Seems to be ready for a small retracement from intermediate term highs around 1.2250.

Still like it to go higher, so will attempt to get long again on any retracement to 1.2170/90 area


Xerof

Xerof
23-05-2005, 05:44 PM
Added another unit of USD/CHF 1.2330 to my Friday entry at 1.2210

Xerof
24-05-2005, 04:35 PM
closed out both units at 1.2313 for +103 and -17


No firm ideas at the moment

Xerof

Xerof
30-05-2005, 10:47 PM
Arco,

Think I can see a large bearish gartley on the USD/CHF weekly

can't post a graph, but points I get are
X was 1.2850, A was 1.1300, B was 1.2260 (perfect 61.8% of XA), C was 1.1480 (78.6% of AB) D target anywhere between 1.2470 (127% of BC) and 1.2732 (161.8% of BC) according to Hoyles....

Can you confirm this as a genuine pattern? I'm only practicing...

in your experience where do most D targets end? hint hint:D:D

Xerof

peat
31-05-2005, 12:14 AM
given that the Eur/$ is moderately consistent with the inverse of USD/CHF do u also see a bullish version forming there too?

arco
31-05-2005, 10:33 AM
Xerof

Yes you have the dates spot on.


quote:target.......anywhere between 1.2470 (127% of BC) and 1.2732 (161.8% of BC)

Herein lies the problem, because one must always remember
Gartleys can disappoint by developing further into Butterflies.

So, finding a possible pattern is only the beginning and
other TA needs to be carried out to try to confirm
the likelihood of a reversal at the target point/s.

I usually look at Gann levels, Fibonacci retracements/
extensions, and marry that all in with old support,
resistance, trendlines, etc, etc.

Peat - yes currently, and in a number of timeframes,
the larger of which is way into the future as it looks
presently. (So much so it is almost crystal ball gazing).

arco

arco
03-06-2005, 10:54 AM
The action has reached the lower
elements of the Butterfly reversal zone,
plus a Gartley zone on another time scale.

Xerof
03-06-2005, 03:36 PM
quote:The action has reached the lower
elements of the Butterfly reversal zone,
plus a Gartley zone on another time scale

quote:finding a possible pattern is only the beginning and
other TA needs to be carried out to try to confirm
the likelihood of a reversal at the target point/s

To my inexperienced TA eye Arco, market momentum is so good on this trend that my 161.8% target of circa 12732 might be a minimum????

Xerof

sorry not much input lately, but terribly distracted with setting up my little fund (which is getting larger with every incoming phone call:D:D)

God the paperwork and beauracracy is unbelievable - I am apparently a 'financial institution', but my fees are not GST liable, I am now an employer (of myself) which means PAYE, FBT, RSVP and RIP[^], I have to act as policeman for customs on the lookout for money launderers, have to file audited annual accounts with Companies Office so all and sundry can have a look, collect RWT on behalf of IRD, vote Labour (no, thats not in any Act of Parliament -- just yet) - on and on it goes[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]

Still I suppose if I can make 5 to 10 mill a year its possibly worth the effort;);)

arco
03-06-2005, 04:12 PM
Hello Xerof

Yes, just reaching the bounderies of the zones
means nothing other than we should be aware of
that fact. Little to be done other that watch for
further signs. A centralized Harami printed
overnight and that is technically classed as a
reversal pattern, (although further confirmation
is always suggested).

I have possible Gann resistance at 2573/2695, and
the upper zone of the Med Butterfly circa 2748.

Complications are that we have 3 Butterfly/
Gartley zones coming together in the one area,
and that is unusual. The larger Gartley has
a very high price zone much further north if
it turns into a Butterfly.

The long term model remains long as reported
on the Monarch thread.

Ummm....not sure why you would want to burden yourself
with all that hassle when you can make $1 mill
PA trading your own account and have no one
other than yourself and Mrs Xerof to answer to :D

However, I can help you spend that 4/5 mill if the need
arises.

Back to the paperwork ;)

Xerof
03-06-2005, 06:41 PM
Arco, thanks for those comments -I'll keep an unblinking eye on Monarch 1 for the turn on USD/CHF - is there any sort on email alert function on Sharetrader, or maybe direct to my mobile?

Of course, the lazy 5 to 10 is on top of PA 1 Arco - its tough to make a decent living these days - need to put in at least 3 hours a day - 3 or 4 days a week - what is the world coming to, I ask you - must be this productivity gain claptrap we keep hearing about hmmmm?

Nice celebratory time in honour of QEII mid year DoB to all, I'm off to watch the trials - NFP can go jump tonight

Xerof

arco
04-06-2005, 09:24 AM
Xerof


quote:USD/CHF - is there any sort on email alert function on Sharetrader, or maybe direct to my mobile?

I guess it could easily be arranged,
especially if I'm in for a share of the 5/6 mill :D

Action still within the Butterfly zones.

slam
08-06-2005, 03:35 PM
Anyone have an updated view on this pair?
looks to have reversed imo but early days
Cheers
Slam

slam
08-06-2005, 03:38 PM
Break of 1.24 would be nice
Turned about the same time the USD/JPY did which isn't surprising

Slam

lakedaemonian
08-06-2005, 03:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by slam

Anyone have an updated view on this pair?
looks to have reversed imo but early days
Cheers
Slam


In my strictly amateur, and incredibly dangerous opinion, it would appear to have broken the trendline......but I wouldn't be prepared to jump in short just yet :D

Xerof
14-06-2005, 10:03 AM
Arco,

has reached my 12732 target, and your 12748 too. Anything hatching?

Xerof

arco
14-06-2005, 10:48 AM
Xerof

Looks toppy

Shooting Star on the Gann resistance level and
within a minor Butterfly reversal box, and just
above a major Gartley reversal box.

One suggested tactic.......

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/images/png_images/candle%20dstar.png

arco

arco
15-06-2005, 09:36 AM
Shooting Star did not progress into an Evening Star
pattern (which is why it is always suggested to wait
for confirmation before entering).

LT system remains long.

arco
16-06-2005, 09:20 AM
We noted the Shooting Star, and now we see a
Dark Cloud Cover. These are bearish signals
(at least for short term trading).

miner
19-07-2005, 08:10 PM
This one led the way out of my 4 today ,(look at this ones charts compared to eur/usd,mirror image)

Oop's just thought better say upside down mirror as in they go opp ways,just encase I confuzed anybody,or did I just do that[:I].

Xerof
19-07-2005, 09:05 PM
Yep, another beeeeaaauuutiful triangle breakout.....which I completely missed......like the EUR, it went right to the apex before busting out

miner
19-07-2005, 09:32 PM
If it gets through 075(which it may do as usd/jpy is through 60 and they go same way) then eur/usd should keep heading south.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 09:36 PM
Agreed - from the EUR.USD thread earlier today


quote:Looks like fresh air between here and 11900, now that 618 fib has broken convincingly

miner
19-07-2005, 10:43 PM
Just thinking might be a good idea next time to buy it rather than just post on it:([B)];).

Xerof
19-07-2005, 11:08 PM
Agreed - got one out of three spotted today - the other was JPY breakout of triangle from 11230 level.

Definitely thinking a new approach might be required for those particular set-ups. s/l entries on both sides then cancel the side that doesn't breakout and run for the piparoonies on the right one.

Only works when momentum has come to a halt though, but thats probably more often than not, given the number of triangles etc that appear on all timeframes

g'nite all

Xerof

arco
18-08-2005, 10:11 PM
Re trade mentioned on the Chit-Chat thread yesterday.

........long USD.CHF......FWIW - I'm now taking the profit

and I'm off - have a good weekend [8D]

arco
30-08-2005, 10:24 AM
Major Gann @ 2593 appears to be repelling nothbound forays
with some vigor.

Watch for 'change of polarity' confirmation on the recent
support break circa 2667 for a possible short.

arco

arco
30-08-2005, 10:03 PM
That Gann resistance line should read 2693,(not 2593)
and the polarity change was not confirmed so no
short trade signalled as yet.

arco

peat
30-08-2005, 10:26 PM
thx 4 the correction arco
EW analysis tonite =
USDCHF (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 30 2005 6:44AM ET / Aug 30 2005 10:44AM GMT
Last Price: 1.2717
Medium Confidence
Printer Friendly

[Up to challenge range highside]
Key levels: 1.2505 & 1.2755
Having reached 1.2724, continue to expect the USDCHF to test up to 1.2735-55 in the near future. A break above 1.2755 would open the way for further wave c (circled) advances towards 1.2788 (and potentially 1.2900), while projected support at 1.2611 remains in place. Otherwise, more broad sideways ranging is probably in store for the short-term. J Hunter

arco
31-08-2005, 10:33 AM
Thanks Peat

There was a scouting party send over the line yesterday,
but its raid was not conclusive as the EOD close retreated
back below @ 2695

Waiting in the wings [:p]

arco
20-06-2006, 11:58 AM
Weekly chart

Couple of possibilities for medium term traders IMO

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/062006Usd.gif

arco

miner
24-07-2006, 08:46 PM
Just fired this screen up,nice run on the hourly's,any of you boys still watch this one?.

Cheers
Miner

miner
09-08-2006, 07:32 PM
Was a goody to watch today,wish I was:(,look at the hourly's,it's opp eur/usd nice the other way.

Cheers
Miner

arco
14-08-2006, 04:22 PM
Hi Miner?All

Refering to my post of 20th June - CHF just touched the first red box for circa 200 pips from when I posted the chart...(or circa 600 pips from the reversal Piercing Pattern signal). Apologies for not posting that opportunity earlier but I am on my winter break in Aus since May, and posting will be sporadic.

The EOD is still producing higher highs/higher lows.

GTA - arco

PS. Wheres our pal Zerof? I miss him in the Butterfly house.

miner
14-08-2006, 07:23 PM
Hi Arco,yep a tad quiet around here at the moment,good call on this one,messy night for my ones so just watching for now.

Cheers
Miner

roddy
06-09-2006, 09:49 PM
Weekly Chart

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/3990/noname5nv3.jpg

It looks like the weekly and also daily are forming a descending traingle imo,

Will wait and see what eventuates,has anybody elsa
got an opinion

Cheers cadet roddy

arco
06-09-2006, 10:12 PM
Hi Roddy


Good to see your thoughts and interesting to see how others look at their charts - I had a possible Bear Flag scenario on mine.

FYI Major Gann is supplying alot of support in the 2200 area, but once/if that can be broken CHF will be south bound.

Regards - arco

roddy
07-09-2006, 10:59 AM
Hi Arco

Will wait for 2200 break then before entering any short position.

no point in going head to head with the Major!

cheers
cadet roddy

miner
29-09-2006, 10:57 PM
Boys our eur/usd talk tonight,was thinking after a few ups and downs this one may test 622,if so eur/usd is going south.

Cheers
Miner

arco
11-10-2006, 04:14 PM
Ive calculated some Gann resistance just above the
current level, so it might pay to watch for a reversal
pattern to appear

regards - arco

arco
20-10-2006, 11:44 AM
Hi All

Gann resistance held as expected, and I entered yesterday.
Nice black candle overnight and currently +81

regards -arco

miner
24-10-2006, 11:06 AM
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/CHF_0610232142.GIF

miner
24-10-2006, 11:08 AM
Date: 2006/10/23
Time: 21:42 (GMT +2)
Ticker: CHF
Last: 1.2668
Pivot: 1.269
1st sup. 1.2636
2nd sup. 1.2621
3rd sup. 1.261
1st res. 1.269
2nd res. 1.272
3rd res. 1.274
Title: USD/CHF intraday : Overbought
Summary: Update on supports and resistances.
Story: Pivot : 1.269

Our preference : Maintain short positions below 1.269 with targets @ 1.2636 & 1.2621 in extension.

Alternative scenario : Above 1.269 look for further upside with 1.272 & 1.274 as targets.

Comments : The price is correcting the overbought levels. Remian bearish




http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/CHF_0610232142.GIF

miner
24-10-2006, 11:10 AM
That's better,be interested to hear what you think of it arco,when you have time.

Cheers
Miner

arco
24-10-2006, 12:21 PM
Hi Miner

Is that a free site ??

Re the Chf....that appears to agree with my recent prognosis. If you look at the chart you posted the plot has the appearance of a bear Gartley.

regards - arco

miner
24-10-2006, 12:55 PM
Hi arco,ta for your thoughts,not a free site as you have to be an account holder to access it,just thought would run it by you as you are the man when it comes to charts to see what you thought,and it may have been some help to someone on here.

Cheers
Miner

arco
29-11-2006, 01:40 PM
quote:20/10 Gann resistance held as expected, and I entered yesterday.

I hope a few members managed to hold on to this through the waves - if so it has been a very good short term investment for currently 600+ pips.

(I personally closed out early as I was moving back from Aussie on 30/10) :( Nevermnd, there'll always be another opp around the corner :)

GTA - arco

peat
23-01-2007, 09:09 PM
Losing momentum perhaps ?
I have a short from 1.2484
target 1.2340 which isnt in the screen actually oops
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/9831/usdchf1hr230120071ld.gif (http://imageshack.us)
and stop at 1.2536

peat
25-01-2007, 11:10 PM
ichimoku crossover above the cloud on the one hourly chart for USD/CHF. short from 1.2447 20 pip stop +15 now.

peat
26-01-2007, 07:37 AM
stopped out as I woke up....:(

peat
07-02-2007, 07:33 AM
although the shoulders arent even and they are quite broad , last night was the perfect head and shoulders playout , once it broke through the right shoulder it completed the symmetry perfectly. I only got 30 pips myself but they were quick and easy ones.
http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/633/usdchf07022007hshtd9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

miner
14-02-2007, 09:01 AM
http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/8898/fx99ak7.png

Ok looking U trade.

Cheers
Miner

miner
14-02-2007, 09:39 PM
Well took longer than I thought it would but through my bottom line now,see eur/usd did the usual and went the opp way also.

Cheers
Miner

peat
12-06-2007, 06:25 PM
I have a long here from 1.2344 stop below 1.22 target 1.3 currently +42
the question is will posting it bring the kiss of death.[:o)]

arco
12-06-2007, 06:54 PM
Thats a large stop Peat.

I have been thinking about a small short circa 2420+, but thats only trying to play with waves, so dont let that thought disrupt your longer term plan.

regards - arco

peat
12-06-2007, 07:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Thats a large stop Peat.

and a large target too.
and cheers about the 'dont let that disrupt...' comment. I really dont think I could hold a position very easily knowing it was opp to yrs.

arco
12-06-2007, 08:26 PM
HI Peat

Certainly the action appears to be moving north....

I'm just toying with Gann points for a few pips, and that should have no effect on the longer term direction of your trade.

GL - arco

peat
13-06-2007, 09:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by peat

I have a long here from 1.2344 stop below 1.22 target 1.3

now that this is +120 I'll raise the stop to 1.2310 not quite break even.
At this level i'm hitting fib ext levels same (in reverse) as posted in the Eur thread. Back to 1.2344 is quite possible according to the fib extn retracement theory. hoping not tho.

peat
16-06-2007, 09:18 AM
was good to have closed this y'day morning at 1.2461 +117
now have a buy order placed at 1.2410 - very close to being activated last night but not quite. so yeh 50 pips not given back at this stage.

arco
16-06-2007, 09:42 AM
Nice trade Peat :D

I am +13 (average) on my short [V]

I will see what it looks like on Monday and re-evaluate

Mr Gann has failed me this time.

Good weekend all - arco

peat
18-06-2007, 10:34 AM
I'm going to hold off on re-entering the long at this stage - let things settle , maybe hope for mid 2300's to reconsider.

arco
18-06-2007, 09:18 PM
Ah Mr Gann, you tested my patience, but perhaps
I will be well rewarded.......action certainly
looking a little better at the moment.

peat
21-06-2007, 08:31 AM
plenty of room for your short to have done okay Arco.
I'm rebuilding longs now.... I meant to get in at 1.2367 but somehow have now an av of 1.2383. stops below 1.23 , could consider buying more under 1.2350 if it goes there again.

arco
21-06-2007, 08:54 AM
Hi Peat

Yes I jumped out a bit too early on the original trade,
half doubting my original calculations.
However, I got back short yesterday mid afternoon, and
this trade idea was placed on DailyFX at 6pm.

My Gann calcs for possible support/reversal area sit at 1.2322-2315.

IMO this could give an opportunity to short to around this level,
or to wait for a reversal off that area to add longs.

Longer term possible target area 1.2984-3257

regards -arco

peat
21-06-2007, 09:02 AM
cheers for that Arco , I'll add cautiously then since I've already jumped in a bit soon. If I hold off a bit then stop wont need need to be compromised.
What happend was that last night I was playing the short side picking up 5 here and there but after I closed them all I had left a stop buy in at 1.2398 and it got taken ! so with that and the 1.2367 limit buy I already had in this has raised my entry points more than I intended. Duh. but not the end of the world.

Your long term target matches Mr McKegg so thats good for me to hear.

peat
21-06-2007, 12:08 PM
I did this fib level setting last night (before the overnite low occurred )and then was amazed to see how accurate it was).
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/4818/usdchfhourly21062007uc0.jpg

arco
21-06-2007, 01:04 PM
Peat

The way I use the Fib is to base it on the 'seed' wave
(first retracement 1-2). That is often more accurate.

Try it on the same chart - you will see what I mean.

regards - arco

peat
21-06-2007, 02:01 PM
i thought thats what I did.
I consider it a wave when there is at least a 38% retracement - hence I see the first wave or seed wave is from 1.2490 to 1.2440.

Am I wrong because I used the spike up to 1.2490 as my starting point or because of 1.2440?

arco
21-06-2007, 03:23 PM
Peat

Fibonacci Seed Wave is another method of estimating where waves will terminate/retrace. You take the measurement of the first retracement wave (1-2 below) and project it forward. The Fib points are possibly where the waves will terminate and start.

http://www.asx.com.au/research/images/fig44.gif

arco

arco
22-06-2007, 10:29 PM
I got back short earlier at 1.2408, took 50 pips off
one position, and the rest is TP at 2330 (stop at 50)
so whatever happens, happens as I sleep). Mr Gann
may assist. You still in Peat????

All other trades closed now and will reposition on
Mon/Tues.

Good weekend all - arco

arco
23-06-2007, 09:16 AM
Nice fall directly to the Gann levels as previously mentioned (with yesterdays confluence of Gann calcs @ 2300-2320).

Mondays Gann calcs are 2308-2318 so we can look for possible support (reversal pattern?), or a break down below with that support turning into resistance. In that case keeping an eye on a lower Gann support area circa 2235.

My target was hit while I dozed blissfully unaware. All in all a very good week.

arco

peat
24-06-2007, 10:50 PM
my core position narrowly avoided being stopped, the other had to depart.

arco
27-06-2007, 04:02 PM
Swissy is trapped on a Gann point and with other
active Gann points just below as potential support.

Waiting for the reversal pattern to confirm a
possible long entry.

miner
27-06-2007, 04:12 PM
If so eur/usd should be turning south.

Cheers
Miner

arco
27-06-2007, 04:28 PM
Hi Miner

The correlation picture is a little confusing. Swissy
may have a little further to fall to those Gann points
mentioned in an earlier post, if so Euro will rise and
I have active Gann resistance points currently at 3479
and another higher at 3542. Gann pivot 3427 could form
support, or if broken, resistance.

regards - arco

Craig3215
03-07-2007, 02:07 AM
Looks to me like a possible descending triangle... weekly and monthly charts below
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/chfweekly.jpg
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/chfmonth.jpg

arco
03-07-2007, 12:36 PM
Hi Craig/All

Yes its an interesting scenario at the moment, and in the
medium term we should see a turnaround.

The Gann 2204 held as support for around 15 hrs and broke with a strong red candle, with the action falling past the next Gann point 2121 which could now cause some resistance.

IMO the next powerful Gann point at 2052 could halt any further fall.

Then we need to see a convincing reversal candle patterm emerging before going long.

regards - arco

arco
05-07-2007, 07:11 PM
Hello All

Possible active Gann support could kick in at 2114.
In this case I look for a good reversal pattern to appear.

If for any reason this level happens to fail, the lower and
major active Gann comes in at 2044 today).
An extended break below this is unlikely IMO

GT - arco

arco
06-07-2007, 08:41 AM
Hi All

As mentioned last night - Possible active Gann support could kick in at 2114.In this case I look for a good reversal pattern to appear.

Reversal patterns appeared in confirmation - Morning Star on the 30 min and Bullish Engulf on 1 hour which have given a max of 78 pips so far.

This was a low risk entry (even if using the Gann point as a limit order).

GT - arco

bogus1
21-07-2007, 11:58 AM
maybe getting close to a long ,watching this one for a possible trend change imvho and a medium term hold, i will attempt to post a chart.

bogus1
21-07-2007, 12:15 PM
hi all , i discovered this forum a few weeks ago and have been very impressed with quality of discussion and feel its only fair to contribute my share for what its worth.i have a faint memory of some directions on how to post a chart could someone direct me to that thread. hi peat i really relate to what your going through and feel your contribution will be missed, its certainly one of the toughest ways i have ever tried to make money and am learning painfull finacial lessons.i have a spare carney harmonic patterns book ,it is vol 2 and you do kind of need vol 1 but its yours if you want it.

bogus1
21-07-2007, 07:25 PM
poss trade awaiting confirmation maybe follow through usd weakness on monday open giving poss entry set sl 119.50 ish target unknown

http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?srv=img39&img=/9/7/21/joicey/f_ScreenHuntem_bbffd70.gif

bogus1
22-07-2007, 08:30 PM
http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?srv=img34&img=/9/7/22/joicey/f_ScreenHuntem_2501411.gif

arco
23-07-2007, 08:02 AM
bogus1

I cant see your chart - please re-attach.

rgds -arco

bogus1
23-07-2007, 09:24 AM
what am i doing wrong , metastock chart captured ,posted to image shack url inserted between tabs and just a little red cross , what about everybody gives me self addressed envelope, i am so crap with computers

bogus1
23-07-2007, 01:11 PM
hi peat , i went to image shack and it directed me to that website being the most suitable for posting on forums which site would you recommend.

arco
23-07-2007, 02:51 PM
bogus1

Try photobucket.com....I find it far easier than imageshack

regds - arco

bogus1
23-07-2007, 07:13 PM
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_05Jul2117.05.gif

arco
23-07-2007, 07:51 PM
Hi bogus1

Great to see your charts.

My BF collection on CHF is slightly different to yours, but you seem to be on the right track because current action is certainly in a target area/PRZ for the blue specimen.

The red Admiral seems to have a 786 AB leg, so when that prints I am always suspicious that a possible longer CD swing will flow on to 1272-1618 zone, which is what I think could happen here.

rgds - arco

bogus1
23-07-2007, 08:08 PM
do you trade pattern failures as in this case a bearish continuation pattern. its something i starting to look at because often when they fail they give a good move, i think that 1950 ish is critical. thanks for the photobucket site ,i had to wait for my i.t. expert to get home from senior primary school, but i think ive got it.

arco
23-07-2007, 08:34 PM
Bogus1

I presume you mean the blue specimen.

I dont trade that as a failed pattern because it always looked a bit suspect. It could have resolved as a Gartley 222, but even tho the shape was odd the first BF at 114 gave a 50% retrace. (I managed to pick up a few pips in its retracements)

The green Gartley 222 is the one I have been following with a target down towards 1900 or less.

rgds - arco


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/072307Usd.Chf.gif

bogus1
24-07-2007, 06:35 PM
hanging in on my chf long , i had a go on an elliot count, i must confess not one of my strong points
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_05Jul2419.27.gif

arco
24-07-2007, 07:04 PM
Mr Gann circa 2062-2085 could/should? hold up any north-bound progress.
.........If not I'll be giving him a piece of my mind.

I'm still short, with fingers crossed ;)

GT - arco

bogus1
24-07-2007, 07:33 PM
ok dokey will take profit at 2075 and enter short for a bit of channel surfing arco
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_07Jul2420.21.gif

arco
25-07-2007, 02:10 PM
Auto pilot took me out at TP (+50) overnight.

................A very pleasant surprise

Still waiting presently to see if we get a turnaround on the Gann support. Should be good for a few pips.

rgds - arco

bogus1
25-07-2007, 03:16 PM
hi arco thanks for that gann level , i got in by 1 pip (u make your own luck in this game) and rode that upper channel back down , i document all trades and grade them on available pips and i gave myself an A and you can have one too for a good assist

bogus1
25-07-2007, 07:26 PM
in short again on this one arco, you in ?

arco
25-07-2007, 07:55 PM
bogus1

Not yet - looking towards active Gann 2151 and see what happens at that point. (Should have been long earlier but shorted Euro and EYen instead).

rgds - arco

arco
26-07-2007, 10:48 AM
AM surprise - auto pilot had taken me in short at Gann 2151 (+ 20)

.....looking for a possible move down to Gann below
at 2085 (which is supported by 20SMA @ 2100) and
could provide a reversal for a long upto active Gann 2271
(Watch for a slight hesitation circa 2207)

GTA -arco

arco
26-07-2007, 10:36 PM
stopped out +20 - will review again tomorrow

arco

arco
27-07-2007, 07:36 AM
Mmmm ...the scenario played out overnight without me.

Went for a shower leaving a tight stop, and bang
+20 pips SL got hit. Obviously a virgin SL - too tight

Woke up this morning to find I missed that nice
fall of circa 130 pips.

:DNobody said it was going to be easy

bogus1
27-07-2007, 08:14 AM
i am looking to exit this short arco any words of wisdom on poss target

arco
27-07-2007, 03:04 PM
bo

Suggest you trail your stop to be safe.

I've got two major active Gann supports just below @ 1991
and 1922. Dec 06 low should also be supportive @ 1882.

arco

bogus1
31-07-2007, 08:02 PM
long 12032 TARGET 12200 SL 11990

arco
04-08-2007, 10:39 PM
The action has entered the target zone of the green Gartley 222
as mentioned in post #90 with chart (again here for ref)

dumbass
09-09-2007, 03:33 PM
looking like it may run into d point on both of these patterns

oscillator and macd looking like x over coming up

dumbass
09-09-2007, 07:56 PM
dropping down to dailies gartley printed which i would guess would be worth waiting to see

what happens to possible ride north before positioning for a short. if it runs into a butterfly

will take to same area on bigger patterns. i reckon this is where it starts to get a bit more

difficult.

i suppose nobody said it was easy

arco
10-09-2007, 05:39 PM
DA

Your BFs seem to be on the right flight path.

The situation is quite complex at the moment, so waiting
for resolution on the BF/Gartley is perhaps the best option.

rgds - arco

dumbass
20-09-2007, 08:14 AM
118 holding as support but for how much longer ???

dumbass
20-09-2007, 06:05 PM
a new wave of usd weakness has triggered sell on break of support at 1.18
tight stop as prz in sight

arco
27-09-2007, 09:11 AM
Reversal signs are starting to appear IMO

Piercing Pattern on daily has given us the first sign, with divergence showing on QS.
Intermediate Gann and Sloping TL resistance appear to be aiding support.

The print is now within the BF PRZ.

GTA - arco

dumbass
27-09-2007, 06:02 PM
just a little more to suggest this could be heading north

peat
27-09-2007, 09:36 PM
saw a flying thing heading north already!!

http://img361.imageshack.us/img361/5517/usdchf5min26092007zw4.th.jpg (http://img361.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usdchf5min26092007zw4.jpg)

peat
04-10-2007, 11:24 AM
i had a limit buy set at 1.1703 last nite but alas never got triggered.

arco
04-10-2007, 11:39 AM
Peat

You could try waiting for a 1-2 correction, and see what happens at that point,
and perhaps be on the lookout for a bullish Gartley off the pivot wave 1.

rgds - arco

peat
04-10-2007, 12:15 PM
yeh thats sort of what I did to get that level.... drew a bullish gartley at about 9:15 PM
and placed the D at 1703 - it only went to 1713 !
but of course looking back at it now, the first wave up completed at 1719 so that should have been the level....

just the demo a/c tho.... so <shrug>


hopefully roddy is still in and up a hundred with his eur/usd short

arco
04-10-2007, 12:29 PM
Hi Peat

With hindsight ideally your limit entry should have been circa 1720/30 where
the bear flag (wave 3-4) would be likely to be supported by the potential
wave one high.

rgds - arco

roddy
04-10-2007, 06:06 PM
Hi Peat

yeah i am still in the EUR trade and looking for a better than expected nfp come Friday as you predicted!

cheers
roddy

arco
05-10-2007, 02:27 PM
This current up-move may be a 5 wave impulse, so we look
for a 3 wave retrace - basic EW. (See chart)

Wave 3 is deemed to be the best wave to ride, so we can
consider pyramiding or instigating a new long position circa
wave 2 near C ? on the chart.

Starting at 'X' the plot may print a bullish butterfly near C ?, so somewhere
in the 1710-1720 region we could start to look for a potential reversal pattern.

GTA - arco

peat
19-10-2007, 10:31 AM
I'm probably too early with this but theres a 78&#37; retracement from the climb to 1900 from 1620 and has found a little support and come out of being oversold on the hourly.

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/617/usdchfhourly19102007hm1.jpg

arco
19-10-2007, 12:38 PM
Hi Peat

With the B leg @ 50 that could indicate a possible Gartley.
So definately worth keeping an eye on, although current
action is sideways which does not give any real clue.

rgds - arco

dumbass
19-10-2007, 06:30 PM
hi pete that gartley has d point divergence on rsi now

it close to a bamm set up which has proved a good entry

a bit slow of the mark though

peat
19-10-2007, 06:49 PM
yeh it is technically right but I lost confidence in it and bailed - 30

gah

dumbass
19-10-2007, 10:50 PM
just possible wxy correction is complete for a big run north

dumbass
15-11-2007, 10:27 AM
showing signs of forming a base of impulse wave 3 for a 4th wave retracement before resuming 5th wave lower of an abc

bullish engulfing and 2 hammers imply possible north move

there are 2 fib extensions providing support

arco
29-11-2007, 04:16 PM
The action passed through the old support circa 1300 but it now looks like we could possibly see a reversal to at least test this break......perhaps to 1250-1350 zone. There is a white turnaround bar on the 3 Line Break.......so may be a little trade available. Also check out the large BF from early 2005 giving a potential reversal point within the blue box 1128-1272.

Early days, but maybe something in the wind..........if/when that BF really starts heading north a decent move could be on the cards.

peat
18-01-2008, 07:57 PM
short term short underway


(an hour later - closed half +30)

peat
19-01-2008, 09:31 AM
remainder closed @1.1 +56 overnite.

AMR
27-03-2008, 10:31 PM
A scalp for today. First forex trade with real money, unfortunately I buggered the stop and ended up buying back 10x what I sold :mad::mad:. Lost a fair bit in the end:o.
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/7001/usdchfshort11pm27thmarcge4.jpg

peat
15-05-2008, 05:18 PM
saw this descending triangle formation looking like it was going to break so am having a go with it , one entry before the break and one limit set to go with it
so far it continues to confirm

peat
15-05-2008, 08:17 PM
well it offered 40 pipis pretty quick but I wanted 50 , so in the end it retraces back to even and being a big trade I wont let it go bad, so closed for zip.

but it was a good trade idea, dont regret trying it.

peat
31-08-2008, 09:46 PM
Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 03:51:02 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 1.0986
Support: 1.0845, 1.0825, 1.0775, 1.0745
Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1105, 1.1450

[Topping?]
A possible double zigzag, where the two zigzags are equal may be at an end. Further, the recovery, underway since March, has reached an area of resistance offered by the prior fourth wave. The recovery has also reached the middle of the Fibo target area.

If the recovery is a correction, which we've favored all along, this is the time/place for it to end.

peat
31-08-2008, 09:49 PM
Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:47:37 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 1.0986
Support: 1.0845, 1.0825, 1.0775, 1.0745
Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1105, 1.1450

The decline below 1.1116 satisfied long-term downside expectations. But that does not mean the decline is complete. In fact, the September/October/November drop looks like a third wave. A series of fourth and fifth waves should keep $CHF under pressure.

The recovery from March is corrective to this point so the trend is toward lower levels.

dumbass
07-09-2008, 10:35 AM
following on from Peats ewi posts

dollar showing signs of topping out next week

garley close on daily with divergence

terminal ending diagonal close to completion in 5th wave position with divergence

dumbass
09-09-2008, 08:41 PM
5 waves may signal completion of ending diagonal

5th wave may often display terminal thrust beyond upper boundary

short from 1.1350 and 1.1340

will add if it closes below upper boundary

arco
10-09-2008, 08:35 AM
Hi DB

I had several short positions running last night from circa 1340 and took 164 pips total before shutting up shop.

The short/medium term scenario certainly looks to be south, but we may be able to play a few more swings before the trend sets in properly.

arco

peat
23-09-2008, 08:26 AM
a big night...
with 780 billion more of them I was pretty sure they werent going to be worth more and was fearing a msaaive gap so I even started shorting this during the weekend. (Oanda never closes).
I was kind of surprised how long it took to start falling though
Didnt mean to but the t/p closed one +180 leaving the other open currently +300

In hindsight (as always) this was actually the opportunity of a lifetime - should've hit this a lot harder...

arco
23-09-2008, 09:41 AM
Nice one Peat

Heres an e-mail I received overnight from Martin Weiss........

It was a surreal moment: Senator Christopher Dodd told ABC’s “Good Morning America” that Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke had just informed Congressional leaders “We’re literally days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system.”
Things got even scarier when he told CNN, “There was dead silence in the room for five to 10 seconds. The oxygen went out of the room.”
No wonder Congress is falling all over itself to pass the $700-billion bailout bill to buy toxic mortgages!
Combined with the $25 billion spent to bail out Bear Sterns, $100 billion each for Fannie and Freddie and $85 billion for AIG, Washington has now pledged more than $1 TRILLION to fight this crisis so far — and still, it’s only the beginning:


Yesterday, Paulson announced he’s adding another $50 billion to ensure the money market funds ...
He’s also expanding the bail-out to include car loans, credit card debt and more ...
And Democrats in Congress are clamoring for hundreds of billions more for a second economic stimulus package, for a bailout of homeowners at risk for losing their homes and more!

And still — even if Congress gives Paulson everything he asks for and more — there’s still one, glaring, “inconvenient truth” nobody’s talking about ...

None of these unprecedented actions
are enough to end this massive debt crisis!
1. They do little to guarantee that more financial institutions won’t fail: Sure — Washington is going to buy toxic loans from the institutions that invested in them. But don’t think for a moment banks and other companies are going to get top dollar for the poison in their portfolios.
Although the details of the bailout are still sketchy, it’s clear that Washington will pay a deeply discounted price for that bad paper. That means the financial institutions that own those lousy investments are still going to take huge losses.
And in many cases, those losses are likely to be large enough to push many of these teetering firms over the brink.
Our forecast: Despite this massive, historic, unprecedented bailout, you will still continue to see a chain reaction of bank failures and corporate bankruptcies.
2. They do little to slow the explosion in mortgage defaults that caused this mess in the first place: With the economy slowing, unemployment surging, home values still plunging and monthly payments on six million adjustable rate mortgages set to rise, the tidal wave of mortgage delinquencies and defaults we’ve seen so far is almost certain to grow larger, not smaller.
As Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, told FOX News Sunday, “If you don't solve the mortgage crisis, you're not going to solve the financial crisis.”
3. They do nothing to address the $180-trillion derivatives time bomb at U.S. commercial banks: Thirty years of deregulation have allowed a parallel financial system to arise in America in which more than $180 trillion dollars in derivatives are held and traded by U.S. banks with scant government supervision or accounting.
The truth is, no one has any idea of the magnitude of the deleveraging ahead or the size of the debts that will ultimately have to be written down!
4. They do virtually nothing to cause lenders to end the credit drought that’s spreading the contagion to other sectors: To survive, banks are desperately raising credit requirements ... slashing lines of credit for corporations and spending limits on credit cards ... turning down all but the most highly qualified borrowers.
And that’s what’s causing so much pain at companies making products that consumers buy on credit: Autos, home improvement products, electronics and other high-end merchandise.
BOTTOM LINE: As massive as it is, the Paulson-Bernanke plan can’t even begin to resolve this crisis. In fact ...

This $1 trillion bailout virtually guarantees
this crisis will spin wildly out of control!
Look: Until last week, the White House projected that the 2009 federal deficit would be $482 billion. Now, just with the bailouts announced and proposes so far, Congress is tacking on 1 trillion to that number, or even more.
That means plunging prices for Treasury notes and bonds plus soaring interest rates. And that, in turn, means rapidly rising payments on ARMs — a coup de grâce for millions of homeowners who are barely clinging to their homes as it is.
It also means the recession will be deeper and longer than it otherwise might have been. And it means scores of U.S. companies that manufacture and sell products requiring consumer credit will be hit even harder.

Sincerely,
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

peat
24-09-2008, 09:31 PM
dunno amr

usd/chf looks like its about to fall over to me

peat
26-09-2008, 06:50 PM
well it never did quite fall over like I thought but I still managed to make some reasonable pips by fading the rises and buying back in troughs. Out now tho..

peat
13-10-2008, 05:49 PM
put in a sell order this morning at 1.1365 when the price was heading below 1.1300. But even tho price went to over 1.1400 it hasnt been triggered!! :mad:

arco
13-10-2008, 07:48 PM
Peat

I've placed a couple of orders on Oanda today without difficulty, but the platform is definitely playing up.

Its something you should e-mail them about IMO, especially if its on the trade platform.

rgds - arco

peat
14-10-2008, 07:32 AM
actually it all turned out good - it was my mistake Arco....
I put my computer into hibernate mode and when I turn it back on Oanda hasnt updated- usually its very obvious that I need to disconnect and reconnect as the price is a flat line but in this case price had updated without my trade showing.
I need to make sure I disconnect Oanda and reconnect after hibernating..

Got 90 pips after all!

peat
01-12-2008, 05:57 PM
at a critical point now is my thinking.




2300 will mean we're still seeing new highs and blow my plan.

arco
01-12-2008, 07:57 PM
Evening Peat

Perfect AB=CD.

But could it turn into a BF ? Good straddle trade perhaps.

rgds -arco

peat
05-12-2008, 07:47 AM
been a bit of a painful wait.... maybe starting to come right again now... seems to me that the polarity (not a word I use much) is turning in that the down moves are becoming more impulsive and the ups more corrective?

arco
05-12-2008, 12:53 PM
Hi Peat

If you look on the 4 hour you can see a bullish Gartley and bullish BF, (Xs = circa 1831 and 1954 ), so these patterns may need to find their harmonic targets before the PA can reverse south.

Waiting in the wings

rgds - arco

peat
05-12-2008, 05:53 PM
yeh i'd spotted the gartley

peat
06-12-2008, 07:27 AM
powerful move north indeed last night arco. I SAR'd and got some of it chur for that.

arco
06-12-2008, 08:59 AM
Good thinking Peat

Heres the start of the move north...................:)

http://www.gifs.net/Animation11/Animals/Butterflies/Black_moth.gif

peat
10-12-2008, 07:37 AM
another gartley on the 30 min.

arco
10-12-2008, 08:36 AM
Morning Peat

The B leg is over 618 so may be some more south movement left.

peat
10-12-2008, 09:12 AM
yeh I got 90 off that last night. :+)

arco
12-12-2008, 08:29 AM
Morning Peat

The B leg is over 618 so may be some more south movement left.


...............that was a nice 250 pip move south, and the action is now printing in the potential BF reversal zone.

peat
28-01-2009, 05:28 PM
from a freebie vid from EWI

peat
03-02-2009, 05:51 PM
Peat

Interesting set-ups on the chart at the mo.

Are you targeting the uptrend line (H1/H4 chart) or a bigger move? (Uptrend line daily - from potential Gart). Target circa 1.0530-1.0600

targets are 1560,1520, and 1310.
working on shorter time frames
but probably more concerned about stops atm. have the largest two set to break even now.
a=b hasnt quite happened , so could be another push up? above 1630 reduces likelihood of success because the first push down went to there eg if thats wave 1 down then we cant go back above that in 3
above 1680 count is completely wrong as that is wave 2.

arco
03-02-2009, 09:51 PM
Hi Peat

Looks like the action might be forming a mini-Gartley/or BF at the end of the maxi Gartley. Hourly chart.

peat
04-02-2009, 04:15 AM
a third of the trade got stopped out -50, a third at +100, remaining third now at +240, with the target on that still 130 away.

peat
24-02-2009, 08:58 PM
since that big fall the other day I've been selling at evey fib level we hit during the retracement with stops above 1900.

peat
06-03-2009, 07:21 PM
previous post starting to work now with sells at the higher fibs up a couple of hundred.

miner
06-03-2009, 07:49 PM
Nice run this arvo-evening and eur/usd the other way as usual.

Cheers
Miner

miner
05-05-2009, 06:55 PM
Ok U so far more in it if it completes,hourly,15min.

Cheers
Miner

arco
23-09-2009, 12:52 PM
Might be getting close to a reversal zone.

Older chart first

http://i32.tinypic.com/24qn69s.gif







http://i38.tinypic.com/a47ekl.gif

peat
28-10-2009, 07:59 PM
you were pretty spot on with your reversal zone arco... a low of 1.0033 and an impulsive obvious five wave move up to 1.0251.
now I guess we wait for abc.

peat
29-10-2009, 12:23 PM
how does an EW count explain that it has gone higher than my top of wave 5 without a significant abc?
do we recount so that we're still in the 3rd ? or is the abc allowed to do this?

arco
29-10-2009, 12:54 PM
how does an EW count explain that it has gone higher than my top of wave 5 without a significant abc?
do we recount so that we're still in the 3rd ? or is the abc allowed to do this?

Peat my EWaving is not that hot so this may be all wrong, but maybe this is still an a,b,c correction and the action has further to go lower.

Perhaps DB can perform his magic on a few counts

dumbass
29-10-2009, 08:51 PM
hi guys, a possible count peat is an ending diagonal unfolding, with overlapping 3 3 3 3 3
so one more wave in the diagonal then the abc correction.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ljvxidkx.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=ljvxidkx.jpg)

peat
08-03-2010, 09:00 PM
a hammer and a bullish engulfing on the hourly chart here for USD/CHF so I'm short Euro$ tonight

jennym
09-03-2010, 08:17 AM
might be a silly question but is the reason you shorted euro$ instead of long usdchf to do with the size of the spread?

peat
09-03-2010, 08:34 AM
that would be the logical explanation although I dont actually worry too much about spreads myself.... its just that I am also following Elliot Wave Internationals thoughts on the Euro and this was a candle pattern confirmation that I identified. I dont like to post ideas directly from subscription services as thats a breach of copyright.

and as a postscript, just for anyone else curious I got a PM asking why I shorted Euro on a Swissy long signal , its because they tend to be perfect opposites of one another as of course determined by the Eur/Chf pair (which is also a major pair, with high volumes). Even arco says so in his blog so it must be true.

Anyone, please feel free to discuss or ask anything at any time so as to help keep these forum pages alive... I'm no guru but I'm happy to contribute what I can

RazorX
09-03-2010, 09:08 AM
Hi Peat

I was going to PM again but my next question will probably contribute if someone is wondering the same thing.

When you say the two pairs are you meaning the USDCHF mirrors EURUSD or the EURCHF?

From what I gather from your post you are meaning EURUSD and the EURCHF confirms this. Is this thinking right?

Thanks for sharing with us

Razor

(PS I join Arco's blog last week :))

peat
09-03-2010, 09:56 AM
Hi Peat


When you say the two pairs are you meaning the USDCHF mirrors EURUSD or the EURCHF?



The Eur/Usd and USD/CHF almost always move in exactly the opposite direction to one another. And this will be absolutely true unless there is some change in Eur/Chf. In currencies there are always three pairs that are linked in an eternal triangle and if the maths gets out of kilter then there will be someone arbitraging it to get it back in line.
Think of it this way, if you shorted the Eur/Usd and at the same time shorted the USD/Chf (with the same size trade) then your positions are 1/ long Euro, short USD and then 2/ long USD and short CHF. So the USD positions would cancel out and you'd be left with what is effectively a short Eur/Chf position

If Eur/Chf stays the same the Eur/Usd and the Usd/Chf MUST move exactly opposite otherwise some computer or very fast human will re-align them making a buck in the process.

Thats how I see it anyway and arco has made comments that would support what I'm saying.

I guess volatility in Eur/Chf could upset this thinking.

RazorX
09-03-2010, 08:46 PM
I see what you mean. Not a lot of movement lately in the EURCHF is there.

I watched the two pairs tonight - very interesting seeing them both mirror each other in opposite directions. Thanks for sharing Peat.