BOW (Bow Energy)

[bermuda]

What do you about British Gas and Shell are dividing up the spoils.....;)

FD,
Sorry mate, I need you to re-phrase the question.
Ron is making every post a winner. BOW will cash in their 13m VPE for about $13m after the 12 month escrow expires. A nice bit of working capital. Ron covers all the bases.
Please repost and I will see if I can offer an opinion.

[Financially dependant]

FD,
Sorry mate, I need you to re-phrase the question.
Ron is making every post a winner. BOW will cash in their 13m VPE for about $13m after the 12 month escrow expires. A nice bit of working capital. Ron covers all the bases.
Please repost and I will see if I can offer an opinion.

Hi Bermuda, yes the comment didn't read to well.

I backed the VPE horse but Ron and BOW are the performers.

The BOW/VPE deal seems very clean and a nice split of the assets, BOW's links via AOE and Shell appears a natural course of consolidation while VPE's connections with BG has it's own route. I was interested on your (& others) view on how this might unfold.

Once I get out of VPE I was thinking the BOW/AOE camp would be a good place to be?

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda, yes the comment didn't read to well.

I backed the VPE horse but Ron and BOW are the performers.

The BOW/VPE deal seems very clean and a nice split of the assets, BOW's links via AOE and Shell appears a natural course of consolidation while VPE's connections with BG has it's own route. I was interested on your (& others) view on how this might unfold.

Once I get out of VPE I was thinking the BOW/AOE camp would be a good place to be?

FD, This is my dream list.
BG buys VPE's CSG for about $350 million. Say mid next year.
VPE buys ITC using above war chest.
VPE continues to prove up further Growler and Snatcher Discoveries.
Santos/Beach have a fight to get hold of VPE.
VPE sells for $$$$$
I accept bid. Say 3 years.
You have to have a dream.

BOW...... I sell out at $4. Timing?..... About 6 months after the first industry Gladstone FEED gets approved.



If you were wondering what to do with your VPE proceeds after the BG takeover then invest in Arrow Energy. It is going to quadruple its market cap within 4 years.
( I understand AOE was down a bit today.The reason is that Apollo is shortly to be launched (See Mark100's post on AOE.)... and if it emulates Arrow's other little darling PES, then this Apollo is set for the moon.

ARROW is CLASS Material.

[The Big Ease]

Geez Bermuda, if VPE has 350m of CSG, BOW should be worth significantly more than $4 (which would give BOW a market cap of around 700m).

IMO, it would not be a surprise to see a takeover of BOW in the next 6 months.
The majors want to see reserves certified, but not too much. PES was also in the middle of a reserve upgrade program when it was taken over. IIRC, it announced a significant reserve upgrade between offers to get the price up.

I can see BOW in exactly the same situation around February.

[bermuda]

Geez Bermuda, if VPE has 350m of CSG, BOW should be worth significantly more than $4 (which would give BOW a market cap of around 700m).

IMO, it would not be a surprise to see a takeover of BOW in the next 6 months.
The majors want to see reserves certified, but not too much. PES was also in the middle of a reserve upgrade program when it was taken over. IIRC, it announced a significant reserve upgrade between offers to get the price up.

I can see BOW in exactly the same situation around February.

TBE,
If BOW get taken out pre next 6 months what price are you forecasting? I would be more than happy with $4. I must admit that BOW has really performed lately and a premium may be warranted. ...as you know VPE will pick up $350m from BG.

What thinks you?

[The Big Ease]

difficult to tell. If it is a competitive takeover, we could easily see $4 or more.

Your valuation of VPE reserves seems a little on the high side. That is worth more than BOW's market cap right now.

[evilroyrule]

is this the takeover coming (todays trading halt?) or something else? good luck to all you holders. bloody kicking myself here. still, cant win them all.

[Dworsf01]

"The trading halt is requested in contemplation of a proposed capital raising"

[MrDevine]

They just did a deal with VPE worth $8mil, they had $19mil in the bank last quarterly, I think Ron wants to buy something maybe. Note also notice that Ron has shifted his interests around a little, I wonder why?

Something going on there. Big bids on the open, we'll have to wait and see what the deal is here.

Mr D holds.

[Rabbi]

"The trading halt is requested in contemplation of a proposed capital raising"

Last time we paid 27 cents a share so I wonder what the discount is this time.

New shares at a $1.00?:)

[Paddie]

They just did a deal with VPE worth $8mil, they had $19mil in the bank last quarterly, I think Ron wants to buy something maybe. Note also notice that Ron has shifted his interests around a little, I wonder why?

Something going on there. Big bids on the open, we'll have to wait and see what the deal is here.

Mr D holds.

I am with you Mr D that Ron wants to buy something.

Bermuda has posted in the past that Ron hates capital raising so my guess is that there is more to it than rasing a few dollars for more drilling.

Time will tell.

Paddie

[Footsie]

i've bought into this one. I think its abuot time these CSG stocks have another leg up... they've all been drifitng lower for a while.

BOW seem to be quite good at exceeding expectations. so hoping that 450PJ of 2p is conservative.

[The Big Ease]

Go BOW!
I dont think they need more cash to drill what they already have.

A deal is most likely IMO.

EDIT: apparently they are going to build a 20mW plant according to HC poster. Fed this by wilsons.
That changes things quite alot. Any idea on revenue impact and cost of building this thing?

[Corporate]

Geez BOW is going to be HUGE. BUilding a power station and raising a min of $50m to have at least $90m in cash.

All I can say is WOW. Well done bermuda on pick this one early!

[evilroyrule]

hmmmmm. apologies if obviously stoopid qn, but why the fall today? surely good news all round for bow long term? correlation to new shares offered at 1.25? is that where SP will go now?

[Huang Chung]

Maybe the market doesn't like the power station idea. Maybe everyone figured that all the gas was destined for LNG conversion and export. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a power station a low value use of their gas?

[bermuda]

Maybe the market doesn't like the power station idea. Maybe everyone figured that all the gas was destined for LNG conversion and export. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a power station a low value use of their gas?

HC,
BOW now have 100% control of a new Power Station to drive domestic earnings.... and 100% control of their export market. The drop in the share price relects the added dilution of 61.6m shares at $1.25. ( presuming of course that they are all taken ).

Ron and his Team know exactly how to play this game.( and Arrow has done it before...)

Well done Ron.

[Paddie]

HC,
BOW now have 100% control of a new Power Station to drive domestic earnings.... and 100% control of their export market. The drop in the share price relects the added dilution of 61.6m shares at $1.25. ( presuming of course that they are all taken ).

Ron and his Team know exactly how to play this game.( and Arrow has done it before...)

Well done Ron.


Gosh while it is good news this capital raisng plus the conversion of VPEO is stretching me to the limit.

I was kind of hoping that ITC would provide me with some extra dollars this year that would help with the above but it looks unlikely unless another company steps up to the takeover plate.

Still I must admit, that Ron and the team are making every post count.

Very happy BOW holder.

Paddie

[Huang Chung]

HC,
BOW now have 100% control of a new Power Station to drive domestic earnings.... and 100% control of their export market. The drop in the share price relects the added dilution of 61.6m shares at $1.25. ( presuming of course that they are all taken ).

Ron and his Team know exactly how to play this game.( and Arrow has done it before...)

Well done Ron.

Bermuda

I would have thought the SP should have risen today, as you are still able to buy shares on market and be eligible for the new shares. The drop in price should only occur AFTER the date passes for eligibility for new shares at $1.25.

[bermuda]

Bermuda

I would have thought the SP should have risen today, as you are still able to buy shares on market and be eligible for the new shares. The drop in price should only occur AFTER the date passes for eligibility for new shares at $1.25.

You raise a good point but I rather think a lot sold today to give them cash to participate. The market was down also.

Against that there would also be some buying by newcomers enabling them to participate.

[macduffy]

You raise a good point but I rather think a lot sold today to give them cash to participate. The market was down also.

Against that there would also be some buying by newcomers enabling them to participate.

Plus the fact that BOW has had a pretty good run lately. I'm not complaining but the SP has come a long way in a short time!

;)

[Footsie]

Massive upgrade... they are way ahead of schedule.

I would think that once all the placement flippers are out, this thing will head to new highs.

I've been following off and on for a while. The management team seem really onto it.


Bought in today.

[The Big Ease]

It is looking good Footsie.

Once the 2P certification comes in (drilling underway now), then it should be on its way up.


Right now it is cheaper than any other CSG company on the basis of 3P reserves, with the possible exception of MEL, but that's a completely different situation to bow.

300 2P in the next six months would be a pretty exciting outcome and a very real prospect too. All from one part of 1 permit. The haven't even started on the other 2!

[The Big Ease]

TBE,
If BOW get taken out pre next 6 months what price are you forecasting? I would be more than happy with $4. I must admit that BOW has really performed lately and a premium may be warranted. ...as you know VPE will pick up $350m from BG.

What thinks you?

more than 6 dollars would be my view after the recent upgrades, in anticipation of more to come.

I reckon they will get a few hundred 2P certified from the existing 3P reserves.

Eastern star is a good comparison -
2P 391
3P 1,273

700m market cap

check this link on the second page: http://www.easternstar.com.au/pdf/broker/271009_The_Good%20Oil.pdf

Note the takeover premiums for the 3 companies at the bottom of that table.

Bow should be able to get 1800 PJ 3P certified on the blackwater field by converting the 2C soon. That is pretty impressive itself.

If we can get half that kind of result from the first phase of the Norwich drilling and half again from the comet field, that is another 1300PJ 3P and another 300pj 2P.

3100PJ 3P
700PJ 2P should see a market cap north of 1 Bill.

I think the capital raising is really going to ramp up the drilling program and good thiing too. The latest results would have some of the bg boys take their rulers out and taking a very close look at BOW. Let's hope we can get the 2P results in ASAP and some concurrent drilling in the Norwich permit.

[MrDevine]

Hey TBE, I think about $4 would equal $1b MC. There will be closer to 300m shares on issue after the cap raising (round numbers and I stand to be corrected).

I think we would get to $6 and beyond if BOW is allowed to develop organically, generate cash, buy more permits and become a genuine energy company (like Arrow). Australia are really going to need to refit the coal plants to burn gas if the ETS goes through, which would be good for a company like BOW. I've been reading that as the ETS stands now, the whole state of Victorias power generation capacity would be placed into voluntary liquidation as they would breach banking convenants with the carbon credits they'd need to pay. I think man made Climate Change is a scam, but that's another thread.

Who knows how it will play out over next while, but as I've said before I like BOW's style, would look at the company differently if current management were to change.

Mr D holds.

[The Big Ease]

Up until about 3 weeks ago I wouldve thought 1 bill would have been a stretch outcome. I now think bow will get that easily when you consider the previous transactions like sunshine gas, pure energy and the current valuations on eastern star gas.

Keep in mind that they have picked the low hanging fruit here from one third of one permit which is one of three juicy permits. They are sure to pass the pj metrics of all three companies above within six months.

I can understand why they wanted all this cash because the latest results would have a few big players rubbing their hands. Bow will now go crazy proving up the other blocks while they are being measured. If they simply continued at the same pace then shareholders would not be able to extract full value frompotential suitors.


Acouple of key points:
" free gas flow"
.... They have already been approached for offtakes.

Bow is already worth about 3 dollars on the current 3p metrics. When 2p is confirmed ( hoping for about 300 pj) then we will be off again.

The Market has already set the price. Bow just needs to get on with it and it looks like they are right onto it.

[The Big Ease]

I just saw your $6 comment on HC Bermuda.
Let's hope we are both correct in our estimations.

Recent transactions and BOW certification certainly suggest that $6 is within reach.

[Footsie]

TBE... i love yuor optimism but 6.00?

not sure bout that.

BG paid $1b for PES. they had 2500 3p

so lets just start with that. 250m shares on issue = $4.00 could be a number for end of 2010.


either way, if BOW shares dont rally, they will get gobbled up

by the way, WHY is MEL so cheap?
is it cos they are in nsw? or mgmt suck or is it the poor flow rates? or all of that

[The Big Ease]

BOW are almost at 1800PJ* 3P from just blackwater.

De stefani said they would convert "a significant amount" of the 3P into 2P in the current 2P drilling program. We are not far off the certification that PES achieved.

1 Bill is within reach. I think 6 dollars is a good stretch target, depending on how we go with Norwich.

*includes about 300 2c to be converted shortly.

[soulman]

by the way, WHY is MEL so cheap?
is it cos they are in nsw? or mgmt suck or is it the poor flow rates? or all of that

The current SPP priced at 45 cents is one reason. So they have 2 cap raising this year. One at 40 and one at 45. A destruction of shareholder value I must say. Management suck is one tick I reckon.

I had a few lucky trades with MEL before, both selling in the 60's.

[Footsie]

strong close in BOW, good sign

[Footsie]

didnt follow thru... guess these guys are going to be range bound now until they get some more 2p on the board early next year.

[Paddie]

didnt follow thru... guess these guys are going to be range bound now until they get some more 2p on the board early next year.

And get through the SPP.

Still holding well though.

Paddie

[Rif-Raf]

Has anyone received the SPP doc's yet? If so are you in NZ or Aus?
Also does anyone know if you can send in a SPP application without the offical SPP form? I'm going away and won't have access to mail and don't want to miss out.

[snowball]

Rif-Raf - SPP docs arrived last week (Sydney). Mailed by the registry on 23/11. If not received or concerned suggest you phone the registry (Link, Brisbane) and ask them to e-mail a copy to you. They should do that (as long as you can quote them your SRN/HIN) but will likely say it will take up to 24 hours. Good luck.

[Jaa]

Has anyone received the SPP doc's yet? If so are you in NZ or Aus?
Also does anyone know if you can send in a SPP application without the offical SPP form? I'm going away and won't have access to mail and don't want to miss out.

Received mine today in Wellington.

Smallest accompanying book I have seen for a SPP too I might add.

Only interesting point was they stated the maximum raising amount for the SPP was $AUD37m and there was no mention of a shortfall. Thus I assume $37m / $15,000 = total no. of shareholders (2466)?

[snowball]

Jaa, there were 6500 s/holders at 30/6/09 plus there will be quite a few more who jumped into the SPP thru the window left open after announcing.

The $37m max amt represents about 15% of capital where the max permissable under law for a SPP is 30%.

The issue is u/written to $10m.

Where more than $37m applied for (likely to be the case) the directors have the ability to scale back applications in their sole discretion - including the ability to issue none to certain subscribers.

What they could possibly do in the case of significant over-subscriptions is to allot either none or a minimal amount to those who jumped in during the SPP window.

The ann was made on 13/11 after coming out of TH and the record date 19/11. Thus under T+3 there was the ability to buy into the SPP on Fri 13/11 and Mon 16/11.

Hope this helps understanding.

[macduffy]

Has anyone received the SPP doc's yet? If so are you in NZ or Aus?
Also does anyone know if you can send in a SPP application without the offical SPP form? I'm going away and won't have access to mail and don't want to miss out.

Hi Rif-Raf.

There is a BPay option but you will need the individual reference # from your application form as well as the BPay Biller Code. You may be able to get these by phoning the registrar, Link Market Services.

:)

[Rif-Raf]

Hi Rif-Raf.

There is a BPay option but you will need the individual reference # from your application form as well as the BPay Biller Code. You may be able to get these by phoning the registrar, Link Market Services.

:)

Yes agree, I'm in the process of getting a Macquarrie account set up so I can do that however getting it set up has taken a bit longer than anticipated and the login and password have to be physcially posted.

Actually I rang Link Market securities last night and was pleasantly surprised to find that they operate outside normal business hours and they will email SPP (after quite a rigmarole of id authentication), although hasn't arrived yet.

Encouraging to hear someone in Wellington has got there's so it may arrive today.

It surprises me why the post between NZ/Australia takes so long as it is a real nuisance for these situations as if you are away from home you sometimes only have a few days to react.

[Paddie]

Has anyone received the SPP doc's yet? If so are you in NZ or Aus?
Also does anyone know if you can send in a SPP application without the offical SPP form? I'm going away and won't have access to mail and don't want to miss out.



Wouldn't you be better off buying them on market today.

You will only pay around an extra 5c a share but at least you will get what you want and not be subject to being scaled back?

Paddie

[Rif-Raf]

Wouldn't you be better off buying them on market today.

You will only pay around an extra 5c a share but at least you will get what you want and not be subject to being scaled back?

Paddie

Good point, however the thrift side of me still believs that 5% or $750 is still worth the extra effort for being organised, although you're right may get scaled. Actually got home and doc's arrived today.

[gazprom1]

Will we see the shares close to $1.25 before the SPP closes or shortly afterwards? Great buying opportunity

[evilroyrule]

hi there, whats the theory on this one, when is best time to buy, before or after the issue?

[macduffy]

The BOW SP has, in the past, been largely announcement driven and share issues don't seem to have much more than a temporary impact.

I don't see any reason for this to change and expect (hope for?) regular encouraging news on resource upgrades. The big question is when and who will make a bid for the company and what happens then!

I'm holding.

[evilroyrule]

thanks Mac daddy, just looking to time my entry. thinking i will wait till after january when everyones rose tinted glasses fall off!

[Ish]

I bought into BOW a week ago with my IRN funds, there was a good post on hotcopper recapping a lot of what BOW has going for it.

[bermuda]

It is always encouraging to see a Director investing.

BOW is one of the few companies that is driven by both Management ( who have significant shareholdings ) and Directors ( who also have significant shareholdings and lots of CSG experience ).

[The Big Ease]

...and still significantly underpriced.

Knowing the information in SeamFiend's post is publicly available information, I wonder how on earth BOW is still trading below $2.5.

What are the odds management exceed their 2010 targets in the second quarter given the Comet prospect and the 3C reserves in Blackwater are to be certified shortly?

[shasta]

...and still significantly underpriced.

Knowing the information in SeamFiend's post is publicly available information, I wonder how on earth BOW is still trading below $2.5.

What are the odds management exceed their 2010 targets in the second quarter given the Comet prospect and the 3C reserves in Blackwater are to be certified shortly?

BOW - 2010 Reserve Upgrades & Production Drilling Programs

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BOW&E=ASX&N=217523

Page 2 has a very colourful synopsis of there intended program

Busy year ahead :cool:

[The Big Ease]

It does look promising. If management are true to form in understating a d over delivering, then bow will become a monster. First it was mid sized then they started using "major". They are stepping it up.

[Jess9]

Probably been asked before, but what is the thread contributers general consensus on price target for BOW in next 6-12M?

Also for VPE.

Are targets similar? Which has less perceived risk? I know these questions are quite subjective and assumption based, so all opinions very welcome.

[The Big Ease]

EDIT: i just re-read your post and you want a guestimate for 6-12 months. I would say about 1.50 -2.50.
My other price targets were for about 18months down the track.

it would depend on who you asked and when.
2 months ago bermuda was saying $4 and I thought $6 as a max high.
With the latest reserve upgrades and 2010 targets (most likely understated again), $6 is very likely if they can demonstrate good flow rates.

Depending on how Norwich shapes up (initial GIP estimate of 5000PJ compared to Comet of 8000PJ), $8-10 could be possible but that is hoping for the best possible scenario ie Norwich proves another giant field, good flow rates from both and a competitive takeover from motivated buyers.

BOW have made some bullish statements recently and going by the past 18 months, they tend to overdeliver. If they continue this line of form, they will all make us happy investors :)

Looking at today's announcement, which included a line about negotiating an offtake agreement with a view to 30PJ per annum. Could someone tell me what that means in terms of revenue at a reasonable rate per Gj?

[tobo]

BOW management building a pattern of over-delivering, versus VPE's thinner announcements (and recent sp malaise) (among many other metrics) indicates to me BOW as a lot lower risk.

(But potential % increase is another thing.
BOW to $4 is a 3 bagger.
VPE only needs to get to $1 and it's a 3 bagger.)

BOW MCap currently nearly $400m
VPE MCap currently nearly $150m.

TB.
Discl : hold both.

[MrDevine]

No comment here for a while, in meantime we've just had quarterly and SP has taken quite a hammering. Could be traders taking profits on their share placements? Sector wide CSG has gone into hibernation, with more talk of a gas glut, and 2P and 3P prices already paid seen as too high. Smoke and mirrors maybe?

I think what will move SP is not more reserves numbers, but what the flow rates are and how commerical they will be, plus off take agreements, or the takeover as speculated. Interested to see options deal for directors has a special 'change of control' clause in it.

Mr D holds.

[bull....]

Ive held bow on and off , at the moment its sitting right at the bottom of a sideways channel which started from its peak back in sept. 1.25 - 1.52 usually break of the range will determine likely med term direction.

[tobo]

now $1.21 (ie broken 1.25)
How much confirmation would you wait for.

- $1.21 is still "around about" $1.25
- Hasn't closed tonight yet.

Somewhat concerned about relentless widespread drop day after day for quite a few days now..
ToBo.

[MrDevine]

I think it'll depend where it closes. Fall is roughly consistent with where the general market has gone. If it was on high volume I'd be a little concerned about what else the market 'knows'.

Could be response to latest anns, regarding directors options and maybe quarterly, rolled in with market sentiment.

To be honest I didn't expect the SP to move up into the $1.40s after SPP…

The trouble is with this stock, is something will come out of no where and you won't have time to get back in.

Mr D holds.

[bull....]

savage sell down , this is what happens when a range is broken the price can come back and test the breakout level which was around 1.25 when this held sellers smash the price down confirming the breakout.
A good play if your into shorting.

[Paddie]

savage sell down , this is what happens when a range is broken the price can come back and test the breakout level which was around 1.25 when this held sellers smash the price down confirming the breakout.
A good play if your into shorting.


Equally if you are long in to holding BOW I have little problems with what has happened.

Paddie

[bermuda]

Equally if you are long in to holding BOW I have little problems with what has happened.

Paddie

Hi Paddie,
Dont even worry about it. We have a Director who recently bought in at about $1.25.

I remember last June when another Director bought in at about $1.08. I was in Spain at the time and the sp went way down to 76 cents. Traders at work. Don't even worry about it. Just look at the energy in the ground.

This is a MAJOR in the making.

[clearasmud]

Hi Paddie,
Dont even worry about it. We have a Director who recently bought in at about $1.25.

I remember last June when another Director bought in at about $1.08. I was in Spain at the time and the sp went way down to 76 cents. Traders at work. Don't even worry about it. Just look at the energy in the ground.

This is a MAJOR in the making.


Bermuda,
I appreciate your confdence in this company and the industry.

[scorp57]

as on as phaedrus' chart turns green i am back in BOW again

number 1 on my buylist now!

[Corporate]

as on as phaedrus' chart turns green i am back in BOW again

number 1 on my buylist now!

scorp - on that subject it might be handy if we put together a list of BUYs when the market does turn again!

[MrDevine]

Hey Scorp nice work on that BOW trade. I still think BOW is a bit iffy on the trading front as something could come out of nowhere.

See commentary from BG Group about Gladstone expansion. Should put a dampener on a few doubters next week.

BTW, whats the CGT tax position when you sell for a profit? do you need to pay on it? Or does it depend on how long you've held for?

[Corporate]

Hey Scorp nice work on that BOW trade. I still think BOW is a bit iffy on the trading front as something could come out of nowhere.

See commentary from BG Group about Gladstone expansion. Should put a dampener on a few doubters next week.

BTW, whats the CGT tax position when you sell for a profit? do you need to pay on it? Or does it depend on how long you've held for?

MrDevine - do you have a link to the BG commentary?

Cheers
C

[MrDevine]

Corporate check this out:

http://www.bg-group.com/InvestorRelations/Strategy/Pages/StrategyPresentation.aspx

Also if you google news BG Group, theres a lot of reporting thats come out last 12 hours. LNG features favourably. Note BG expects 2010 to be subdued with 1-2% growth, but maybe being cautious in case spot market demand recovers. Also BG moving to have most of its gas contracted rather than sold through spot.

[Jess9]

as on as phaedrus' chart turns green i am back in BOW again

number 1 on my buylist now!

Can someone post a link to that chart/thead?

Thanks.

J9

[Jess9]

Thanks Yankiwi.

[The Big Ease]

Given the history of BOW's management delivering, the announcement about very thick gassy coals was of great significance and comfort for me.

Comet was the same pattern - good indications, good results, whooaah bloody good results.

One thing is for sure, BOW don't pump their announcements with nonsense to generate hype. If they say it is very similar to Blackwater, then I expect big things.

I am in no hurry for this downtrend to stop.

[scorp57]

Hey Scorp nice work on that BOW trade. I still think BOW is a bit iffy on the trading front as something could come out of nowhere.

See commentary from BG Group about Gladstone expansion. Should put a dampener on a few doubters next week.

BTW, whats the CGT tax position when you sell for a profit? do you need to pay on it? Or does it depend on how long you've held for?

CGT at tax time at full rate... unless you have held the stock for longer than 12 months, in which case you get a 50% discount.

will be hard if they dip below $1 and the chart is still red... i will be torn between buying or waiting for potentially cheaper shares...

[Corporate]

Alright what do you think will happen to BOW?

Surely the main game isn't developing piddly little power stations. Are BG likely to need BOW gas for their LNG project or have they secured all they need?

Directors continue to buy suggests BOW gets taken over?

My thought is that if CSG is the real deal (I'm still not sure) then BOW is currently very cheap.

Lots of 3p and 2p reserves to come
$88m in the bank
Best management I've seen
Market cap of $294m

[The Big Ease]

Corporate, do you think industry players would spend billions if it wasn't for real?
Especially in the capital constrained environment of the past 24 months.

[Huang Chung]

Corporate, do you think industry players would spend billions if it wasn't for real?
Especially in the capital constrained environment of the past 24 months.

I'm not saying its for real or not for real, but be careful about using 'industry players spending billions' as a guide. Just look at BHP's wayward forays over the last decade or so....Magma Copper, Beenup, HBI Plant, Ravensthorpe etc :(.

Just because you're big doesn't mean you're always smart ;).

[The Big Ease]

good call HC.

[macduffy]

Yes, good point, HC.

There's perhaps a difference here, and a cause for optimism, in that it's more than just one big BG showing confidence in the resource and the process. Certainly, a lot of the players are hedging their bets in that they have a portfolio of other assets but I don't see them just joining in on a "me too" whim.

The big sceptic of CSG is, of course, Woodside but then they have massive gas resources off NW Australia which they need to exploit and sell. And they don't have CSG!

[STRAT]

Wow BOW has been hammered of late. I always think of it as the one that slipped through my fingers. Might start watching close again.

[MrDevine]

Yeah has been smashed eh! AOE has too. General CSG sector malaise as market awaits what projects will get the go this year. Could be time some Strat.

Mr D.

[Ish]

New ann out for BOW, looks good (sans the rain)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=BOW

[Rabbi]

New ann out for BOW, looks good (sans the rain)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=BOW

Yeah, Bow seems to be able to prove up their acreage faster than any other company.
If the SP stays too low they have to be a takeover target
Ron Prefontaine just gets on with it, and whatever they do they seem to be able to deliver.

[Corporate]

Bow down to 95.5c, market cap of $266m and $85m odd in the bank at the end of December.

I am watching very closely. I missed out on BOW once, and it won't happen again :-)

[soulman]

With the latest reporting season over, I think a lot of punters/investors has switch off spec stocks or coy with no earnings/divs to the top ASX 50. Just look at all the gains in the top coy. I know I have switched and had to switch big time too. Can't buy small amount in these coy. Between 9 large to maybe over $15K. Missed out on WOW when the real instinct on Friday was to buy at close for over $20K. It looks a sure bet and harry tells us they were.

Looking to re-enter BOW in the low 80's.

[Ish]

Bounced back a bit today, up 3.5c to 98.5c now and 8c from the low of yesterday

[The Big Ease]

Arrow continued to drop.
They seem to be strongly correlated so one or the other will change direction over the next few days.

[The Big Ease]

Bizzell bought another 100K shares to add to his 6.5 million.
Does this mean 2P data wont be out for a few weeks?

[Lebowski]

With reference to the latest Blackwater Powerstation graphic i note that the location has been moved to the other end of the field and is now adjacent to Comet Block.Could this be a indication of the up coming results re P3 reserves.

[STRAT]

With reference to the latest Blackwater Powerstation graphic i note that the location has been moved to the other end of the field and is now adjacent to Comet Block.Could this be a indication of the up coming results re P3 reserves.That was very astute of you Lebowski :t_up:

[Ketel One]

Looks like the AOE takeover is going to put a stop to BOW's downwards movement for the moment.

[macduffy]

Looks like the AOE takeover is going to put a stop to BOW's downwards movement for the moment.

Yes!

Up a solid 15% so far today!

Seems that rumours of the bursting of the CSM "bubble" were highly exaggerated!

Disc: Holding AOE, BOW and STO.

[Ish]

Got a bit of a shock given how battered its been of late

I am 100% in bow so pretty happy.

[Footsie]

I think BOW is the stock to own in this sector now.
Its proximity to AOE would suggest that if shell are succesful, for another couple of hundred million SHEll could tack on BOW.

[Ketel One]

BOW increases 3P certified gas reserves by 60%.

Oh yeaaah!

[Rabbi]

Proposed takeover of AOE certainly brought this sector back to life.
Only a matter of time before BOW is either snapped up or re-rated.

[Paddie]

My biggest worry with BOW is that they may get taken out with a low ball offer.

It would be interesting to see the response if an offer come in at around the $2.50-$3.00 mark.

Paddie

[drillfix]

Looking good here folks, Gap up and closed just blow or at resistance @ $1.25 and once past that, next port of call will be intermediate res @ $1.475

Good volume, macd, rsi, stochs, Sheez this is gonna be good :)

[soulman]

Bow down to 95.5c, market cap of $266m and $85m odd in the bank at the end of December.

I am watching very closely. I missed out on BOW once, and it won't happen again :-)

Corporate, I hope you didn't missed them again. I have and definitely faced the consequences. The same with AOE. Top of the watchlist along with TRS and WOW and bang, too late, you missed the bus.

[Corporate]

Corporate, I hope you didn't missed them again. I have and definitely faced the consequences. The same with AOE. Top of the watchlist along with TRS and WOW and bang, too late, you missed the bus.

Yip missed again. This TA business may not be for me.

[macduffy]

My biggest worry with BOW is that they may get taken out with a low ball offer.

It would be interesting to see the response if an offer come in at around the $2.50-$3.00 mark.

Paddie

I wouldn't worry too much about that, Paddie.

Directors and management have big holdings in BOW and are unlikely to agree to any sub par offer. Along with a few like-minded shareholders there's more than enough to frustrate anyone trying to get this company on the cheap, IMO.

[Rif-Raf]

BOW increases 3P certified gas reserves by 60%.

Oh yeaaah!
What a day with Arrow news plus the reserves upgrade. Yet again these guys under promise and over deliver. Their 2010 target for Comet was 3P of 500pj so they have overshot this by 74%

[STRAT]

Yip missed again. This TA business may not be for me.Hi Corporate.

Have a gander at this.

RSI moves up from oversold 2nd March but then goes sideways for 3 days so probably best ignored
Down trend line broken 3rd March but sideways and only 2 points of contact prier so probably best ignored.
However a nice divergence between RSI and Price but this on its own probably best ignored unless you are a FA guy and there are some overwhelming signals coming from that arena.

Signs were there but unless Management or Staff are loose with their lips and some volume goes through its hard to get a heads up with a chart.

No method will get em all for ya.

Gapped up today big time you may yet get your chance.

and yup I missed it...... again lol :eek2:

Oh, :p and yup plenty of signals fired today :lol::lol::lol:

[tobo]

as far as beating yourself up about TA, this is 2 FA events that could not show up in TA unless leaky lips.

But, as Drillfix alludes, does the TA now say there is more life in her, upwards from 1.25, ie. is there now a buy signal?
I am not a trader and do not follow intraday chart, but one thing I noticed is that it continued upward all day (rather than your typical half-hour burst after open and then trickle back down for the rest of the afternoon as the profit-takers unwind day-trades)

Discl: hold a little, long time. (up, down, up, down, and now up again)

[The Big Ease]

why would anyone feel like they have missed out here?
Sure you didn't buy at the lowest, but you had all morning to top up at about 1.15 ( I topped up around 1.13 despite etrade glitches all morning).


Even still, it is far lower than its most recent high of approx 1.50. Bargain!
Get into it.

I wouldn't be surprised if BOW management got on the phone to MHA and asked for the certification...."but we are not done yet"
give us what you got and add the rest as 2C!!

Expect further upgrades to this block like we got with blackwater.
They haven't even reported anything on Norwich which is supposed to be "similar to blackwater".

[Corporate]

why would anyone feel like they have missed out here?
Sure you didn't buy at the lowest, but you had all morning to top up at about 1.15 ( I topped up around 1.13 despite etrade glitches all morning).


TBE, unfortunately I can't follow the market during the day. But looking at the intra-day trading it seems you're right.




I wouldn't be surprised if BOW management got on the phone to MHA and asked for the certification...."but we are not done yet"
give us what you got and add the rest as 2C!!

Expect further upgrades to this block like we got with blackwater.
They haven't even reported anything on Norwich which is supposed to be "similar to blackwater".

Agreed. Norwich could be very big too.

[The Big Ease]

hey corporate,

i dont usually follow the market during the traing day either because of the time difference (im in London).
But i checked hotcopper before going to sleep and there it was, so I stayed up a couple of hours.
Rough night's sleep but it was worth it.

Go BOW. I am all set now.

Buying in at the close woul still represent a bargain IMO.
My average prior to topping up was 1.48.

[drillfix]

But, as Drillfix alludes, does the TA now say there is more life in her, upwards from 1.25, ie. is there now a buy signal?


No tobo, drillfix says that if she breaks past $1.26 and holds, then there is a High Probability it will be a buy signal and then it will test $1.35 and then $1.48 accordingly. (imo)
(I think the buy signal had already come with the gap up, and this could be continuation from that).

All the "general" indicators to me look good from my where I am sitting, but we also must remember that in these markets anything could happen and profit takers may just do that in a big way, but with the Gap up and TA behind it, I think it will have legs.

Will be watching this today and maybe throw up a midday chart with some intra day or something to compliment the Fundies.


ps:

Looks like pre open will break through so I believe its going to happen.
may even take a swing on this one too~!

[drillfix]

Batted down like a ping pong ball, who knows, lets see what happens after the first half hour hey.

[STRAT]

I reckon theres a good chance the gap will get filled today

[Paddie]

From the Herald

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10630971

Paddie

[Ish]

BOW marches on. $1.35 now with a high today of $1.37

What a turn around this Arrow business has caused.

[The Big Ease]

1.59 today.
How do you like the news on Norwich.
Comet's Blackwater was supposed to be the monster field...and it is.
But this first drill looks like we might just have an even bigger resource in the Norwich block.
50m v.gassy coals, bubbling gas from the cores, reviewing initial targets for the block.

BOW should be well into 2 dollars IMO.

[Paddie]

TBE

I totally agree with you about BOW currently being worth more than $2 a share.

This company is the real deal, oustanding management, outstanding acreage and a very intensive drilling programme to prove up reserves.

It is only going to get better and as a holder I hope that the sharks are circling and when BOW does get taken out there are a couple of them fighting over their reserves.

I am looking forward to an outstanding year.

Paddie

[Dworsf01]

At the time of writing BOW is down 8c. Had a similar fall yesterday but recouped most by close. Can anyone with a little more knowledge of this stock than me shed some light on why this may be?

[bermuda]

At the time of writing BOW is down 8c. Had a similar fall yesterday but recouped most by close. Can anyone with a little more knowledge of this stock than me shed some light on why this may be?
DWF,
The sentiment for CSG has taken some hits in the last few weeks due to
1.The Delay / deferment of the ETS scheme
2. The publicity given to farmers quabbling over royalties
3.The new Krudd tax ( which actually only equate to an increase of 3% for CSG players )

These sort of sentiments can really cause short term holders to panic and join the stampede to exit. It is similar to the stampede to exit in February when some ill informed journo's who shouold know better ) came out and said there was a gas glut looming. ( they were later forced to eat their words as the real Asian supply/demand estimates became known ).

The energy value of BOW is continually being upgraded due to a very strong drilling program in some very gassy permits. Buy on any weakness. The Gladstone CSG to LNG will be a world first. The first FID is due in a couple of months. That will give the market a real shake up. An article today saying the CSG market will come crashing back to earth is indicative of just how little these journo's know about the world energy market which currently has oil production falling at over 4% per annum.

As British Gas ( one of the world's largest gas players said recently ) " Gladstone will be the Jewel in their Crown "...buy on weakness.

[Brut]

DWF,
The sentiment for CSG has taken some hits in the last few weeks due to
1.The Delay / deferment of the ETS scheme
2. The publicity given to farmers quabbling over royalties
3.The new Krudd tax ( which actually only equate to an increase of 3% for CSG players )

These sort of sentiments can really cause short term holders to panic and join the stampede to exit. It is similar to the stampede to exit in February when some ill informed journo's who shouold know better ) came out and said there was a gas glut looming. ( they were later forced to eat their words as the real Asian supply/demand estimates became known ).

The energy value of BOW is continually being upgraded due to a very strong drilling program in some very gassy permits. Buy on any weakness. The Gladstone CSG to LNG will be a world first. The first FID is due in a couple of months. That will give the market a real shake up. An article today saying the CSG market will come crashing back to earth is indicative of just how little these journo's know about the world energy market which currently has oil production falling at over 4% per annum.

As British Gas ( one of the world's largest gas players said recently ) " Gladstone will be the Jewel in their Crown "...buy on weakness.

Heres an example of how the tax works from the Money Morning newsletter today - thanks Chris Sayce

Heres a worked example of how the Super Profits tax would work...

Lets say a mining company starts up with $8 million of capital. Which it invests in searching for raw materials.

Then lets say the mining firm generates $10 million of revenue.

Now lets minus $9 million of operating costs. That gives a gross profit of $1 million.

Then under this new Super Profit tax the mining company gets to earn a "normal" rate of return which is set at the 10 year government bond rate. For example, 6%. 6% of $8 million (the starting capital) is $480,000.

So, the mining company's net profit, is $1 million, less the $480,000 deduction which leaves a Super Profit of $520,000. This is taxed at 40%.

[zorba]

Am I missing something here ?

Under new super tax ---- 40% tax on $520,000 = $208,000

Under old tax regime ------ 30% tax on $1,000,000 = $300,000

So new tax regime is better ?

Help needed !!

[Ish]

Thank god I sold yesterday.

Thought I may have overreacted at the time... but apparently not. down 22c

[Ish]

Am I missing something here ?

Under new super tax ---- 40% tax on $520,000 = $208,000

Under old tax regime ------ 30% tax on $1,000,000 = $300,000

So new tax regime is better ?

Help needed !!

Zorba, the figures used in the example are made up and will vary depending on the real figures in each situation. In the example given the new regime works out better, but not for the industry on the whole. (obviously, as this new tax is designed to fund superannuation and reduction in the general corporate tax rate)

My understanding is that the biggest miners will be hard hit, but this is also potentially bad for smaller companies, as the large ones wont be as keen to buy the small ones if their projects are going to become less profitable. This creates a flow on effect - hence why BOW and ESG got completely hammered today.

[upside_umop]

Nice work on the selling Ish...bet your smiling now!

Re the tax: Is this 6% calculated based on the book value of the assets? So, depreciation takes it down each year? Or just the original amount?

It looks like the govt wants its share of the highly prospective resources...and ones that require little capital input and big output. Those will be the big losers.

[MrDevine]

Ish I sold last half of my BOW yesterday too, had a feeling market would waaaaayyyyy over react to this issue + also I'm just not cut out for being in this market. Will use cash to pay debt.

This 'game changing' is not good for FIDs being approved in the near term.

I've been on some wild rides with BOW the past 3 years, but this one I think takes the cake! ESG was fire in the hole today, it was over $1 2 weeks ago!

China gives me the shivers too.

On the 'upside' traders would have had a field day – BOW will be back.

[Dworsf01]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aQxL.xToeDhg

There seems to be quite a lot of confusion about what effect the tax plan will have on CSG companies (incl BOW). Admittedly I'm one of those who's confused. The article above says "The proposed tax could reduce the value of coal-seam gas projects by as much as 35 percent". The SP plunge today seemed to me (a newb) to be somewhat of an overreaction, although something tells me further drops could be on the cards.

Also from the article: “The underlying value of the assets is still there -- the value compared to our market cap is enormous,” David Casey, managing director of Sydney-based Eastern Star, said by phone today. “While this has caused confusion, it hasn’t gone through rigorous debate, and I think it’s premature to make assumptions. From our perspective, we don’t see it as being an issue.”

What to think.. :S

[OutToLunch]

What to think... I'm off to stick me head under the pillow. :scared:

[crooky]

buying opportunity coming up , that's what to think !!
Just went WCL with rights issue , talk about timing. ??

[MrDevine]

If BOW goes down even more I'll buy another parcel. I've learnt when there's fear in the market, to get the hell out of the way. I've seen this sucker go up and down so many times, I thought, hey I'll sit this slide out. But you never know – a trading halt tomorrow with a $2.50 takeover offer…

[Ish]

If BOW goes down even more I'll buy another parcel. I've learnt when there's fear in the market, to get the hell out of the way. I've seen this sucker go up and down so many times, I thought, hey I'll sit this slide out. But you never know – a trading halt tomorrow with a $2.50 takeover offer…

The chances of a takeover are much lower now in the near term due to the Henry tax review uncertainty, and any takeover price is likely to be quite a bit lower due to fewer interested buyers, and lower potential NPV of projects.

I really hope they don't implement these measures. I was all in BOW until a few days ago but the game has changed.. at least for the moment.

There will be money to be made on the bounce after BOW is sold down too low, but its too risky for my liking.

[MrDevine]

Ish, I totally agree. Tax review creates too much uncertainty. I like risk, but BOW at the moment is a bit risky for me.

Good luck.

C.

[Corporate]

Bermuda, do you have a view on the situation?

Two issues really. Massive uncertainty surrounding the Henry tax grab and secondly the Grecee mess that could have a domino effect. There is talk now that Spain is next.

I get the feeling that the tax changes won't happen.

[bermuda]

Bermuda, do you have a view on the situation?

Two issues really. Massive uncertainty surrounding the Henry tax grab and secondly the Grecee mess that could have a domino effect. There is talk now that Spain is next.

I get the feeling that the tax changes won't happen.

Corporate,
As you know Rudd has made an enormous blunder here and I would be surprised if this fiscal policy change gets through the house. In the last few weeks the CSG industry has been hit 'emotionally' with the delay/deferment of the ETS, the state of the world economy, talk of farmer unrest , and now this tax change.

But if we look at the bigger picture there are very good reasons why the world is turning to Gas as a transition fuel before more palatable non carbon energy alternatives are developed. ( 20-40 years.) In the meantime oil production is about to fall off a cliff if the world returns to growth...We have had demand severely curtailed due to the GFC and fuel conservation. The European crisis is a concern but it will get resolved and Asia will lead the way in GDP growth. Their energy consumption is rising rapidly from a very low base.

After assessing all these factors ( and a lot more! ) in some detail British Gas ( one of the leading gas companys in the world ) has sought to boost their reserves by investing in Australian
CSG .In fact they have called their investment the Jewel in their Crown. Others majors have seen the writing on the wall ( i.e. oil falling off a cliff at minus 4% per annum and have invested accordingly in Australian CSG.

Asian demand for enrgy and CSG is not going to go away. BG will soon announce their intentions to proceed at Gladstone and business will return to normal.

This is a quick post as I have to go out and the screen keeps on jumping around. I wish we could go back to the old format.

[Ish]

Until there is some certainty over the Rudd tax changes I think few positive decisions will be made.

From an article on smh: The budding $100 billion coal-seam gas export industry in Queensland is considered most vulnerable to cancellations and delays, reflected in the heavy share price falls for the key players and CSG-hopefuls in the past two days. Oil and gas analysts at RBS Morgans told clients yesterday CSG producers would have to pay 40 per cent RRT tax instead of 10 per cent under the state royalties regime.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/analysts-talk-of-cancellations-and-deferrals-20100504-u73p.html

I will reassess the situation again once things are more certain. Personally I doubt the changes will go ahead, certainly not in the currently proposed form. I think it was a foolish move by Rudd.

[gazprom1]

Came home from picking up some dog kennels in the middle of no-where to find that I had bought BOW, MAK and TAP today. Good lesson for not checking my old orders!!!!!!!!=) Some would say dumb and I would have to agree. I was already over loaded. I am not confident that we will ahev any early resolution to the European debt crunch and therefore I can see the market reniaing very nervous for a while yet.

Good luck....I think we are going to need it

Gazprom

[OutToLunch]

In the long term, people will still want to consume food and fuel, and there are more and more of us every day... simple supply and demand has to take over eventually despite the turbulence in the meantime. Come down to patience and a long timeframe. (There, I feel better already :p)

[gazprom1]

In the long term, people will still want to consume food and fuel, and there are more and more of us every day... simple supply and demand has to take over eventually despite the turbulence in the meantime. Come down to patience and a long timeframe. (There, I feel better already :p)

OTL,

You have made me feel better!!!=)=) It is no different than we when we had the GFC - over reaction followed by a slow and steady rise in the market. We have probably still got some ways to go on the downside but providing you are holding quality stocks it will all come good. Europe will be interestin overnight tonight....

Gazprom

[OutToLunch]

It's better not to look right now. Leave the computer off, go outside and enjoy some late season sunshine -- you'll soon forget anything to do with shares or lemmings. ;-)

[soulman]

It's better not to look right now. Leave the computer off, go outside and enjoy some late season sunshine -- you'll soon forget anything to do with shares or lemmings. ;-)

There are some filly there for a swing trade. Definitely, GIR has a nice turnaround from the open.

[gazprom1]

There are some filly there for a swing trade. Definitely, GIR has a nice turnaround from the open.

Soulman/ OTL,

Exited BOW that I bought this am at 1.18...made 5 cents a share so feeling relieved/ happy about that. Bought MAK at 25 and 28.5 today and have those on the block at 31. Problem is my MAK average is 38!!!!!!! Interesting day so far. All trades filled today are in the green but problem is all the stock that was purchased before today!!!!!

Gazprom

[MrDevine]

Traders paradise today on BOW. What a swing trade that is, if you caught the lows around 1.09.

They're calling this the KFC (Kevin Financial Crisis), its almost as bad as the GFC.

[soulman]

The only order I put in last night was VPE at 24. Just sold at 26 so finally a win. Gaz, your last sentence holds true for many people out there. I was also thinking last night to put $1.69 on GIR and GIR has certainly turned green from open.

Good luck on your trade today.

[gazprom1]

Soulman,

Managed to get out of some MAK today at 31...made 9.3% on the trades of the previous two days. Still well down on the MAK bought previously. Eases the pain a little=)=) Bought some more NGE....hope we get some drilling news shortly. ST is really quiet...people licking their wounds I guess. Uncertainty is a killer for the markets. UK elections overnight...NZ/GBP 0.4817.....2 to 1 and I am off to the UK!!!!=)

[soulman]

Soulman,

Managed to get out of some MAK today at 31...made 9.3% on the trades of the previous two days. Still well down on the MAK bought previously. Eases the pain a little=)=) Bought some more NGE....hope we get some drilling news shortly. ST is really quiet...people licking their wounds I guess. Uncertainty is a killer for the markets. UK elections overnight...NZ/GBP 0.4817.....2 to 1 and I am off to the UK!!!!=)

Nice one. A quick scalp is always needed in a balance LT portfolio. Opportunist and calculated trade. Just imagine you snap up some stock when the DOW was 900 points down and sell out at the close.

BOW looks like a good trading stock these days and has been trading between $1 to $1.50. Thanks to the Rudd government, I may re-enter BOW again.

[Ish]

I would like to re-enter, but not as a trader. I only plan to buy back if the henry tax review uncertainty gets resolved.

[gazprom1]

Nice one. A quick scalp is always needed in a balance LT portfolio. Opportunist and calculated trade. Just imagine you snap up some stock when the DOW was 900 points down and sell out at the close.

BOW looks like a good trading stock these days and has been trading between $1 to $1.50. Thanks to the Rudd government, I may re-enter BOW again.

Have you bought anything Soulman? I sold some more MAK at 30 for a nice little profit. Bought NGE at 17.5 and BUR at 8.3 - still holding. May look to exit before the day is out as who knows what the US and Europe hold tonight. Missed on MAK at 24.5 and BUR at 8. Fear is certainly holding sway at the moment.

Gazprom

[soulman]

Yep, I bought MQG at 4425 and WBC at 2410. Not really trades as the amount it's too minimal. If I got caught out by them, then the loss will be negligible. Also, CAZ at 49. Kicking the table as it opened at 45.

Looks like your two are going well. Ah, I should have gone with the small caps.

[gazprom1]

Yep, I bought MQG at 4425 and WBC at 2410. Not really trades as the amount it's too minimal. If I got caught out by them, then the loss will be negligible. Also, CAZ at 49. Kicking the table as it opened at 45.

Looks like your two are going well. Ah, I should have gone with the small caps.

Well done, they are looking good. My take at the moment is that if you can get in and out of stocks you like for a quick profit, great. If it goes against you, I then keep for the long term. I am on the buy and sell sides of certain stocks...like MAK and BUR. Interesting few days ahead...

I find it intriguing how quiet ST goes on the down days. Wish people would share their views, pain and/ or delight. More interestingly is how people (not all of the time) are not willing to share their views for fear of other people front running them. The bottom line is that there are probably a max of 60 people at any one time on ST and for the majority of stocks, we are not going to move them much at all, if any, so why not share. For example, I have made 21 trades this week for a total value of around $270,000. If that was the average, and who knows what the average would be, that would be a total for 60 of $15 million for the week....peanuts in terms of the ASX turnover. Views?? So, I am buying and selling MAK, buying and selling BUR, buying TAP at lower levels, buying NGE at lower levels, buyign CFE at lower levels.

Enjoy the weekend.

Gazprom

[MrDevine]

Hey this is a BOW thread guys.

Gazprom ace work on your trading. I can't imagine moving around $270k in a week. That blows my mind. The most I've ever held is $20k and I sold that to buy a house. In the last month I've sold up $11.5k worth of stock and I'm all out! Age may have something to do with it, or talent, maybe I don't have either on my side. I'm just shy of 30, so maybe time for me to get to playing with a quarter million over 5 trading days.

You raise an interesting point, and this is what sort of funds under management do us ST's have? It would be an interesting thread to start.

[soulman]

I actually did 8 trade today and totalled 15 for the week. Mostly bad one though. End value are much lower than yours Gaz. Your trade on MAK, NGE and BUR are what I would've liked. I would've taken profits on anything over 8%. You need thick skin for this game.

Anyway, on with BOW, I think the floor has been set for BOW between $1 and $1.20 for the next week or 2.

[Dr_Who]

Bought some STO today.

[MrDevine]

I really like this company, but the resources tax has exposed more risk and uncertainty to it. And lets be honest there is (now was) a takeover premia built into the SP. With a resource tax axe hanging over it, this is much less certain.

I think BG will get its FID underway on time, however I'm not sure about the others.

Plus China slowdown will adversely effect these stocks in the meantime, I feel we haven't seen the true picture over there yet, you cannot go up in a straightline.

I say all this because of my experience with the U boom of 06-07 and I'm not saying CSG is the same, but these projects are extremely capital intensive, I think in the short term funding lines will be very tight from the major banks that have big exposure to European sovereign debt.

BUT, if it gets much cheaper I'd consider taking a position, but it would be too tempting to make a swing trade on it. (And thats the other thing that disturbs me about this stock, the volatility is incredible, those guys don't care about fundamentals, eventually they'll bail and we'll have much less liquidity in the SP).

[STRAT]

Bow boosts 2010 gas reserves target by 50%

Timing is everything eh? lol

[The Big Ease]

awesome company that just keeps on blowing targets out of the water.
When will the market wake up? This should be over 2 dollars.

[bermuda]

awesome company that just keeps on blowing targets out of the water.
When will the market wake up? This should be over 2 dollars.

BOW getting those 3 permits in the face of firm opposition from Arrow and others was a masterstroke for them. And they are delivering more than they thought. Sooner or later BOW will unveil their longterm aspirations. Could be 6 months, could be 12 months, could be longer. But it won't be tomorrow. Too many goodies to prove up first. BOW's 100% uncontracted volumes are big enough to supply an LNG train for 25 years.

Far out.

[The Big Ease]

B,

You would know more than I do, but I suspect the repetitive mentions of their ability to supply a 4mtpa lng train for 25 years already tells me they have two options: offtake for one of the projects or dangling the carrot for a takeover.
We already know they have had multiple approaches for offtakes and have rebuffed pending further reserve certification. IMO, this is not 100% true in terms of their motivation. IMO this was more to do with price discovery than agreeing to an actual sale, as their announcement today proves they have the confidence in their tenements to provide plenty of gas for offtake agreements.

The Norwich block is going to be a monster!
Market is strange though. Great announcement and yet BOW hasn't gone up much more then ESG, even though they have tracked together for about 12 months.

[macduffy]

[QUOTE][Market is strange though. Great announcement and yet BOW hasn't gone up much more then ESG, even though they have tracked together for about 12 months. /QUOTE]

The increase is in their targets not in their actual reserves.

Yes, in the past BOW have regularly met and exceeded targets but the market may be a bit more cautious in present circumstances.

I hold.

[The Big Ease]

yes, true...but take a look at what BOW have done to their last 3-4 "targets".
They will exceed 2010 3P for sure.
2P too, most likely.

2 years of watching these guys tells me they don't set targets if they don't know they will be met.
This is what excites me a great deal.

BOW is potentially worth 4 times what it is now, "if" it meets its 2010 targets

[bermuda]

yes, true...but take a look at what BOW have done to their last 3-4 "targets".
They will exceed 2010 3P for sure.
2P too, most likely.

2 years of watching these guys tells me they don't set targets if they don't know they will be met.
This is what excites me a great deal.

BOW is potentially worth 4 times what it is now, "if" it meets its 2010 targets

TBE,


BOW will meet its targets,..exceed them in fact. The trouble is that the world and CSG markets have been decimated by:
1.The 'PIGS' can't fly scenario.
2.Mr Rudd's incredulous and shortsighted super tax on mining and oil/gas companies
3.Mr Rudd's backtracking on ETS
4.Trouble in Bangkok
5.Ash in the air.
Fortunately, as released at the current APPEA conference in Brisbane, the CSG industry is still on track to provide Asia with much needed long term LNG.

[JackSprat]

TBE,


BOW will meet its targets,..exceed them in fact. The trouble is that the world and CSG markets have been decimated by:
1.The 'PIGS' can't fly scenario.
2.Mr Rudd's incredulous and shortsighted super tax on mining and oil/gas companies
3.Mr Rudd's backtracking on ETS
4.Trouble in Bangkok
5.Ash in the air.
Fortunately, as released at the current APPEA conference in Brisbane, the CSG industry is still on track to provide Asia with much needed long term LNG.

Hi Bermuda,
You left out the small matter of Spain,Portugal,Greece, etc going bust and being propped up by funny munny :)

[gazprom1]

Hi Bermuda,
You left out the small matter of Spain,Portugal,Greece, etc going bust and being propped up by funny munny :)

JS,

Bermuda referred to them....'PIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) can't fly scenario.

Gaz

[JackSprat]

JS,

Bermuda referred to them....'PIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) can't fly scenario.

Gaz

Wow, that is so anagrammaticay

[shasta]

JS,

Bermuda referred to them....'PIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) can't fly scenario.

Gaz

Make it "IPIGS" - don't forget Italy isn't out of the mire just yet either

[upside_umop]

I've heard STUPID.

Spain
Turkey
UK
Portugal
Italy
Dubai

A few missing though...such as Greece and Ireland.

[upside_umop]

Further to that, if you include the USA, Greece, Ireland and Turkmenistan you get:

U STUPID GIT

The things some people come up with eh?

Sorry folks, back to BOW.

[Dr_Who]

Why is BOW sp so weak on a good announcement?

disc: not a sh

[evilroyrule]

i was just thinking that. but my fingers have been burned so badly of late im not game for any more punishment. still what goes down must go up (eventually!)

[MrDevine]

Dr Who I think the SP
is reflecting the uncertainty around the final investment decisions that would appear to have been coming around June/July. The rent resource tax has impacted CSG like any other resources sector. Also commodity prices coming off and China growth being questioned. Lots of stuff in the storm. Also I think takeover premium may be coming off. But still if BOW could sign an offtake deal I think would stablise price. PLUS the traders are loving this stock at the moment, witness the volatility yesterday, $1.11 to $1.25, thats a good DT.

I'm out of this market, but watching keenly.

[Corporate]

I can't believe no one has mentioned the 77m of gassy coals intersected!!!

VN-1 hit 52m, VN-2 is 48% larger!

These permits are jewels!

[MrDevine]

Yes all good news Corporate but this market is immune to it. I also think the days of reserves upgrades moving these CSG explorers has ended. Market wants an offtake deal at a good price to get it moving up again. More M&A activity will spark it up too. Lots of uncertainty, but it'll pass.

[Dr_Who]

In a bad market all shares get hit by irrational panic.

[The Big Ease]

BOW is doing everything it can and should.
It really is up to the market.

It really should be way above 2 dollars and it would still be undervalued.
We need a proper transaction to go through. A second bid for AOE would do it, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

[Corporate]

Yes all good news Corporate but this market is immune to it. I also think the days of reserves upgrades moving these CSG explorers has ended. Market wants an offtake deal at a good price to get it moving up again. More M&A activity will spark it up too. Lots of uncertainty, but it'll pass.

Agreed, and if these CSG LNG projects don't get off the ground then BOW is over valued!

[Ish]

I very much doubt anyone else will bid for Arrow now.

It is more likely Shell etc will withdraw than a higher bid post rudd grab.

[Ish]

Agreed, and if these CSG LNG projects don't get off the ground then BOW is over valued!

Yep and thats why I took my money out.

[The Big Ease]

Agreed, and if these CSG LNG projects don't get off the ground then BOW is over valued!
Your kidding Corporate.
Every bit of evidence points to not only these projects going ahead, but they are opting for multi-train facilities.
Santos has already said forget consolidation.
IIRC Origin have pretty much said the same.

I'm not sure why the market is in a panic at the moment.
the EU and IMF have set up a near 1 trillion bail out fund IF it will be required.
That was more than enough for the US and it didn't end up using most of the TARP funds.
The so called PIGS economies would even be half the size of the US economy.

[mark100]

TBE, I think the recent events make project consolidation more and more likely. And that would likely mean the majors would have enough gas reserves between themselves for a few trains. The need for BOW's gas may be pushed back a few years

[Corporate]

Your kidding Corporate.
Every bit of evidence points to not only these projects going ahead, but they are opting for multi-train facilities.
Santos has already said forget consolidation.
IIRC Origin have pretty much said the same.

I'm not sure why the market is in a panic at the moment.
the EU and IMF have set up a near 1 trillion bail out fund IF it will be required.
That was more than enough for the US and it didn't end up using most of the TARP funds.
The so called PIGS economies would even be half the size of the US economy.


I said if. Take a view either way and invest accordingly.

[kiwiwim]

Can any one explain on volume reporting please.
Re Bow trading today. I see on Direct Broking that at 3:35 pm ,Aussie time, that volume in BOW is 766,499 shares. However on StockNess Monster volume is at 3:09pm aussie time 2,827,499! Which is correct?
Not complaining happy with good rise in share price. Any link with new alternative director Michele Muscillo?

[Lebowski]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/report-fuels-lng-rerating-20100608-xtrl.html

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/csg-could-be-spared-rspt-says-macquarie/story-e6frg8zx-1225877219871

According to Macquarie - Csg may avoid the "Krudd Tax":D

[The Big Ease]

That would be great if it did.
Sounds like we may have a shot at it.

It's about time BOW released some info on their 2P program.

[whirly]

Bought some STO today.

STO's starting to look strong Dr. Well done.

[macduffy]

You can rely on BOW for a steady stream of good news!

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100727/pdf/31rj47r9tnrf2y.pdf

I hold.

[Paddie]

Hi macduffy,

I hold as well and I look forward to October the 11th when the government says it will make a decision over mining.

BOW is very well run and there is so much upside with this company once the FID's get the okay.

Paddie

[The Big Ease]

BOW is an amazingly well run company. Home run after home run....but!
We are still waiting on 2P. This announcement is simply confirming what we have been speculating on since the 3rd drill in Norwich.
The possibilities are very exciting though.

5000PJ 3P and potentially 500PJ 2P by the end of the year.

[The Big Ease]

two very solid days for BOW with the confirmation of talks to feed gas to FL.
4.5% up already and it has developed a very good looking chart. Solid volume increase too.

[macduffy]

BOW is "Ferret's stock to watch" today.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/ferrets-stock-to-watch-20100803-113x0.html

I hold.

[macduffy]

BOW to raise $48m by an institutional placement to be followed by $30m SPP for shareholders.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101111/pdf/31tt48tjyrwc7p.pdf

I hold.

[macduffy]

The placement and SPP will be made at $1.15, a decent discount to the last sale price.

An interesting point arises in regard to the SPP. Rules limit the amount that can be raised in any 12 month period to $15,000 per shareholder and it appears, on the face of things, that BOW's SPP last year will fall within this time period. Relevant dates were/are:

Record date 19 November 2009

Offer opened 24 November 2009

Offer closed 11 December 2009

The only dates indicated for the current SPP are:

Record date 10 November 2010

Allotment expected in December 2010.

Does anyone know which of the various dates - Record, opening, closing, allotment - is relevant to the "12 month period"?

[Jaa]

The placement and SPP will be made at $1.15, a decent discount to the last sale price.

An interesting point arises in regard to the SPP. Rules limit the amount that can be raised in any 12 month period to $15,000 per shareholder and it appears, on the face of things, that BOW's SPP last year will fall within this time period. Relevant dates were/are:

Record date 19 November 2009

Offer opened 24 November 2009

Offer closed 11 December 2009

The only dates indicated for the current SPP are:

Record date 10 November 2010

Allotment expected in December 2010.

Does anyone know which of the various dates - Record, opening, closing, allotment - is relevant to the "12 month period"?

I think you can assume the allotment date will be 1 day later than the prior year's allotment date!

I disagree with you regarding the discount though I think it is a bit on the skinny side as it is the bottom of the recent trading range. 10% discount to VWAP is the smaller of the ones I have seen. Plenty of time to see what happens though.

[macduffy]

I think you can assume the allotment date will be 1 day later than the prior year's allotment date!

I disagree with you regarding the discount though I think it is a bit on the skinny side as it is the bottom of the recent trading range. 10% discount to VWAP is the smaller of the ones I have seen. Plenty of time to see what happens though.

Well, as shareholders we don't want to see them "given away" to instos in the placement!

And I see that this part of the capital raising has now been successfully completed.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101112/pdf/31tv2j6pfmvx5g.pdf

[macduffy]

BOW have extended the closing date of the SPP to 17 December. No explanation other than the company originally reserved the right to alter dates!

It could be that there is some conflict with the "12 month" rule previously discussed but for whatever reason it's hardly good news. Having gone for the max a couple of days ago I've now hedged my bets by selling a few of my "old" shares.

[Ish]

BOW have extended the closing date of the SPP to 17 December. No explanation other than the company originally reserved the right to alter dates!

It could be that there is some conflict with the "12 month" rule previously discussed but for whatever reason it's hardly good news. Having gone for the max a couple of days ago I've now hedged my bets by selling a few of my "old" shares.

Sounds like they want to raise more cash as not enough interest in the initial period.

[macduffy]

Sounds like they want to raise more cash as not enough interest in the initial period.

Yes, that's a likely reason although extending by 3 days to 17 December hardly seems to do much in that regard!

Edit. On second thoughts, I think conflict with the 12 month rule is just as likely the reason.

[timmy_cn]

Does anyone receive the refund from BOW for the SPP, I was told through email the refund was sent on 23 Dec, I am still waiting for the mail.

[crooky]

received cheques yesterday , live on the far north coast of NSW.

[timmy_cn]

Thanks crooky, i am in auckland nz.

[Rabbi]

Thanks crooky, i am in auckland nz.

Haven't got mine yet either and when I do I'll lose money buying and selling Aussie dollar!
:scared:

[kiwiwim]

Hopefully "No News" is good news.
I find the amount of bot trading confusing. Do not know if the price is pushed down or pulled up! At least we are in the money at the moment on the latest issue, but not on the previous one of $1.25.
Does any one know of progress since the 6 January announcement?
Found an interesting explanation on bot trading on the hc threat by foxtrot, post 6202007 if you are there also read his post 620213.

[Rabbi]

Anyone got any theories as to why BOW is tanking at the moment.

I know sentiment is anti-CSG at present and also there have been no positive announcements re 2P and 3P reserves for quite a while.
However BOW's contingent reserves are enormous if they can keep proving them up.

Short term volatility or some underlying problem?

[bermuda]

Anyone got any theories as to why BOW is tanking at the moment.

I know sentiment is anti-CSG at present and also there have been no positive announcements re 2P and 3P reserves for quite a while.
However BOW's contingent reserves are enormous if they can keep proving them up.

Short term volatility or some underlying problem?

I have sold down half my holdings to get into some other stocks . I spoke to the guys at the O&G conference in Sydney. The rains have put them back several months but they are still hoping to achieve their 2011 targets. The Blackwater power project is going well and the Cuisinier oil drilling is achieving on the high side. BOW now need the rain to go away to let them prove up further resources and test gas flows. The latest preso puts BOW right up with the big boys...provided they reach their 2011 targets. With normal weather they will do it.

[MrDevine]

Rabbi, CSG is a bit out of favour, these explorers rely on news flow, BOW hasn't put out a major upgrade for a while now. A lot of holders may be getting fed up with waiting for a T/O. HOWEVER, if you look back at QGC and AOE, just before a takeover occurred, they both suffered quite steep drops, so as to make the offer price more attractive. Does look tempting at these prices, but what does the market know that I don't?

Mr D

[mark100]

My opinion is that further 3P reserve upgrades won't give much of a re-rating. I think BOW needs to now demonstrate commercial flow rates to enable the 3P to be converted to 2P. This is what will make BOW attractive to the majors. I noticed a similar thing with AOE in the end, reserve upgrades to both 2P and 3P didn't impress the market that much, it just wanted to see how the reserves would be converted to cash.

From reading a few of the Wilson HTM reports on BOW over the past 6 months it doesn't seem like the gas is flowing that easily although Wilsons seemed to think some different fraccing techniques would help. They still have a buy recommendation on the stock.

[derek.zoolander]

Just been announced that the Brisbane flood earlier this year will dealy plans by 6 months- interesting, after repeated announcements that they are still on track. Either way, the recent drop in share price seems to have already factored a delay in.

News release-

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Bow Energy Ltd (javascript:void(0);). (BOW.AU), an Australian coal-seam gas explorer, is likely to reach its target for natural gas reserves six months later than expected due to flooding earlier this year in Queensland state, which slowed exploration at its Blackwater and Norwich Park projects.
"It's a speed bump, but the reserves are still there," said John de Stefani, the company's chief executive. He said the delay won't have any impact on the company's goal of commencing natural gas sales between late 2014 and early 2015.
Bow initially hoped to find probable reserves of 1,250 petajoules and possible reserves of 6,200 petajoules of natural gas by end-2011. However, the company now expects to reach those targets in mid-2012, because of the heavy flooding that took place in Queensland between late December 2010 and early January 2011, De Stefani said.
The company has found 114 petajoules of probable reserves and 2,576 petajoules of possible reserves so far in five projects across Queensland.
Meanwhile, Bow expects to have a license to build a natural gas pipeline from the Bowen Basin to the port of Gladstone by the end of 2012, he said. The company hopes an infrastructure fund will own and operate the pipeline and charge Bow a tariff to use it, he said.
At the moment, most of the interest in the company's natural gas reserves are coming from Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China. However, Bow "isn't in any rush to make a transaction" because it believes its gas reserves are undervalued, he said.
Last year, Bow held discussions with Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (javascript:void(0);). (LNG.AU) about acquiring its Fisherman's landing site in Gladstone, De Stefani said. Although it's no longer in talks to acquire the site, Bow could still be a supplier of gas to the project in the future, he said.

[mark100]

Bought a few BOW this morning following the news of STO's bid for ESG. First time I've had BOW in over a year. I'm thinking STO's bid might get the sector back in favour for a while.

STO is bidding $0.50 per GJ of 3P. BOW is trading at a Market Cap to 3P of $0.13

However BOW needs to make some progress on getting its 2P reserves up to have any chance of fully closing that gap

[macduffy]

Nice buy, mark, with BOW up 8% today!

I certainly hope that the renewed interest in the sector is sustained as I'm a bit overweight in BOW. Now torn between lightening up a bit while interest is high or riding the wave a bit longer. Will probably compromise by setting a new higher stop, meantime.

[derek.zoolander]

I managed to get in at 76 cents a few months ago- just didn't buy enough at that price.

[mark100]

I only bought this morning after the ESG news was out so no profit for me yet! But I looked at what BOW's share price did last year after the Shell Bid for AOE. The price gapped up from 98c to $1.25 and then headed on to over $1.50 over the next month.

This bid from STO might get some positive focus back on BOW for a while as well

Also the AFR online reckon all the CSG to LNG majors are still short of gas, even Santos

[drillfix]

Turned out to be on the right side of the trade now though Mark.. Well done dude.

[macduffy]

Right on cue, BOW announces a 60% increase in 2P reserves!

[Financially dependant]

A big day for BOW, broken out of a down trend channel today with good volume with the ASX down 1.4%. I think the smart money has been accumulating again!

[macduffy]

A big day for BOW, broken out of a down trend channel today with good volume with the ASX down 1.4%. I think the smart money has been accumulating again!

Apparently there was a favourable reference to BOW in a recent AFR article. Mentioned a broker target price of $1.77.

Can anyone with access to AFR confirm this?

[OutToLunch]

Here we go... Arrow has kicked off a takeover for BOW at $1.48.

Wonder where this will end up? Dreaming of another Pure Energy... though I think that's unlikely given the change in the political climate since that happened.

[macduffy]

The proposal is "non-binding and conditional" at this stage.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110822/pdf/420jbg8hd8kht8.pdf

And to think that I've been thinking of reducing my exposure to csg and BOW in particular!

[OutToLunch]

The proposal is "non-binding and conditional" at this stage.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110822/pdf/420jbg8hd8kht8.pdf

And to think that I've been thinking of reducing my exposure to csg and BOW in particular!

'Tis non-binding etc, true.. but a hand has been shown and I think things could move quickly now that AOE have stuck their heads above the parapet.

This post by 77Anthony on HC summed up the recent shenanigans in BOW quite well (esp the stream of SSH notices recently), and it looks like that summary has been pretty close to the mark.

---
BOW is touted as the next CSG company for for takeover. No news there, following the raid on ESG.

Daily trading volume is consistently up and the share price is moving like a yo-yo.

Generally, the share price for takeover targets holds a premium in the price. Arguably any premium in BOW has been hammered out in recent times.

Fortunately, maybe more unfortunately, there's a consistent strategy in play by predators of companies in the CSG space.

Call it paranoia, if you want.

Deutsche Bank's substantial shareholder notice is our first alert and they've been trading BOW shares but maintaining 5% or close.

I've been be running over the Arrow (AOE) posts and announcements pre-takeover and during the Scheme of Arrangement period.

Deutcsche Bank was very actively trading Arrow shares months before the takeover.

If you go through the Arrow threads during the Scheme period, UBS and NAB also appear with Substantial Shareholder notices, also buying and selling.

Both UBS and NAB (via nominee entities) are currently substantial shareholders in BOW.

Looks like the same team assembled by Shell Petrochina.

There's been another sign recently that BOW is in for the full pre-takeover softening up period. I'll point it out when and if it shows again.

The big question is, can BOW break out of this trading range and hold around $1.50?

One way BOW may get there is if BOW signs a GSA with LNG for Fisherman's Landing. But guess what? LNG's major shareholder HQCEC is a subsidiary of CNPC which is also Petrochina's parent. Still a chance of happening? Who knows.

The other way BOW may get there is if it strikes a deal with a one of the big farm-in partners they've been talking too. If that happens, it will be game on.

My sentiment is buy, but only on the dips.

[Jay]

Closed at 1.525 today - Will have to see if it holds above this as OTL says
Another offering in the wind??

[The Big Ease]

talk of an investor/farm in partner at 50 cents per gj. That would value BOW at about 1.1billion.
That should put the cat among the pigeons.
Would that kind of investment require shareholder approval? So if it were announced, would other potential bidders have time to raise their offers or could the board simply agree to it and announce it as binding?

[OutToLunch]

Well. Instead of BOW bending over backwards to maximise value for shareholders, they instead recommend that shareholders bend over forwards to receive, what, $1.52?! :t_down:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110926/pdf/4219lhpbdzxpcx.pdf

[macduffy]

Perhaps that's about what they're worth.

It's been a while now and no-one else has made a counter-offer. There's a lot of gas - conventional and other - being proven up around the world these days and Australian csg isn't quite the premium fuel that it seemed to be a year or two back. I expect the BOW boys have a better handle on this than most of us.

I hold BOW.

[Jay]

Sold my few the other day for about 1.52 - another few cents here or there was not going to make much difference to me

[mark100]

If BOW is worth more you will see BG make a bid. If not then they are only worth $1.52 in my view. It has been clear for months that BOW was struggling with flow rates. More time and money needed which Shell has. I'm not sure BOW shareholders would have supported a capital raising at sub $1 with a several year wait for commercial returns, particularly in this market

[bermuda]

If BOW is worth more you will see BG make a bid. If not then they are only worth $1.52 in my view. It has been clear for months that BOW was struggling with flow rates. More time and money needed which Shell has. I'm not sure BOW shareholders would have supported a capital raising at sub $1 with a several year wait for commercial returns, particularly in this market

I am heartened to see that Water Capital LLC has taken a 5% stake in BOW. Apparently Water Capital did the same to Pure Energy and made a fortune. Let's hope the same thing happens with BOW

[The Big Ease]

Bermuda,

I am finding the recent sub holders notices a little confusing, but interesting nevertheless.
I just can't believe BOW is the least valuable CSG company to be taken over in 4 years.
That would be strange and it would mean management have misled shareholders.

[The Big Ease]

A new substantial shareholder.
Perhaps things are about to get interesting.

[macduffy]

Perhaps, but I doubt it.

Centaurus Capital have made a science out of buying stakes in companies subject to takeover, at a few cents below the t/o price being offered, and making a modest profit - but a good percentage on a per annum basis! - when the takeover happens. CST was a recent case in point.

And, of course, there is the outside chance of a better offer.