ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[mattwanz]

Perhaps additional advertising could benefit the whole milk category, not just the brand being advertised...could be good

[kizame]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

BUT, I think you are missing the main advantage A2 have, in that most, or a big percentage of the people that are likely to buy A2 are ones whom either don't consume A1 milk at the moment and the others who have digestive problems also from drinking or eating dairy with A1,this is a market coca cola won't be accessing.

[NT001]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

You make a good point Harrie, but I agree with those who have pointed out the key difference between Fairlife Coke-milk and A2 that should prevent A2's US launch being too damaged.

Nevertheless, it could be an interesting tussle.

Fairlife is targeted at "most punters", whereas A2 is not - it's targeted specifically at those who are conscious of the A1 beta-casein issue or the milk intolerance issue, either because of a2MC's advertising or because of something they've read somewhere.

Fairlife says "we're rejigging ordinary milk into something even healthier", while a2MC will be saying: "our milk is for those who think they're milk-intolerant or have medical issues (eg autism) that may be linked to A1". BloombergBusiness notes that US consumers tend to react against high-priced milk, which Fairlife is and claims to be, whereas they are happy to pay more for milk that has specific medical or health benefits, such as almond milk (and A2).

Fairlife will push the fact that the lactose has been removed from its milk, which will appeal to some who are lactose intolerant. A2 Milk does not claim to solve the problem of lactose intolerance. Fairlife may appeal to some of those targeted by a2MC as having digestive problems with A1, but its milks contain boosted amounts of milk protein, which could actually create problems for consumers who experience digestive problems arising from A1 protein.

Industry commentators in the US have already been somewhat skeptical about Fairlife milk. As one said, "Coca-Cola's success with Fairlife shouldn't be taken as inevitable yet. Consumers will have to decide if they're comfortable with the assertion that the beverage is actually milk, versus a recombined fluid from filtrated constituents of cow's milk."

I'm also wondering if there will be debate about Fairlife's advertising claims. For example, on its website it gives details of the contents of its "whole" milk showing that the lactose and some sugars have in fact been removed. How can it be honestly described as "whole" milk? At the end of its analysis it says the product "contains milk". It also contains lactase enzyme to assist digestion, and added vitamins A and D.

The milk-supplying partner in the Coca-Cola partnership is a major US dairy cooperative, Select Milk Producers Inc, which has had Fairlife on the market for some time already in limited quantities. A few weeks ago Select Milk announced a merger with another co-op, Continental Dairy Products Inc, continuing to operate as Select Milk Producers Inc. Before the merger, Select consisted of 61 farms with approximately 136,000 milking cows (average 2,200 cows per farm) producing about 4.3 billion pounds of milk per year for local cheese plants and Class I milk plants in New Mexico and Texas. Continental consisted of 36 dairy farms with approximately 76,000 milking cows (averaging 2,100 cows) producing about 2 billion pounds of milk per year in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. A total of 200,000 milking cows is not huge in the USA. It'll be interesting to see how many other farms Coke signs up - it'll need a lot more.

[MAC]

a2mc have been licensing in the US for years so there is a little to build on already, Hyvee and all that.

But, absolutely no one tell SeeWeed that you can already buy flavoured a2 milk in the US, a2 cheese, and a2 whey protein too for that matter

A six pack of a2 flavoured milk retails, hope a2MC are collecting their royalties, for US$42.86.

I reckon actually that mainstream retailing though could all take off more readily in the US than in the UK, the US market esp the West Coast just seem more predisposed to such propositions.

https://differentkindofliving.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/product-review-amasai-by-beyond-organic/

https://gbw.my90forlife.com/shop/index.html?view=Products&CategoryID=428&FeaturedItem=0&ProductID=USBY0004&DeptID=428&DeptName=Beyond%20Organic&SubDeptName=Healthy%20Beverages

[Harrie]

All of us on this site understand the health benefits available from a1 free milk or conversely potential downsides of the a1 protein. Yes, there are not that many consumers that get into the detail about the science of it and anyway ATM need to be really careful about the claims they make about the benefits of a2 milk. This extends to not being able to "rubbish" its opposition on the claims it makes. Fairlife claims that it is natural, has less sugar more protein and calcium...thats good enough I would have thought for most people to buy without worrying about beta caseins etc, even though as NT points out, more a1 protein potentially exasabates heath downsides.
The point I was trying to flesh out was will ATM need to spend more resourse trying to promote what it stands for in a clear and unambiguous way given its advertising constraints, to the uninitiated, which would probably account for 98% of potential consumers.
One way possibly is to take Coka Cola on about using the term "natural"...yeah right. Likely to get a short story on sex and travel and their lawyers card?

[axe]

That's interesting, axe, what area are you in? Countdown is of course the only supermarket chain that carries A2, and we used to find the same in the Wellington region - no A2 available. But we gave the management a gee-up at seven Countdown supermarkets here (Petone, Newtown, Johnsonville x2, Kilbirnie, Karori and Crofton Downs) to make sure they're ordering enough, and now encounter little problem. And we have no issues with use-by date, as it usually has at least a week before expiry. If there's no A2 on the shelf it's usually because of fast turnover, and when we inquire of the store-room staff they immediately bring out another box.

Part of the problem, I think, is that A2 is packed in sealed cartons rather than open crates. It's a bit of an effort to break the cartons open and unload them. If it was in crates like most other milk, the stores could leave them out in the open for customers to just help themselves, and I'm sure they'd sell more. Cartons are much more space-efficient for long-distance cartage and probably for temperature control, but they make extra work for Countdown staff. a2MC has little control over the sole supplier (Fresha Vallery, in Northland) but there have been hints that it might become more active - it has emphasised that the licence to Fresha Valley is non-exclusive. NZ will never be a huge profit centre for a2MC, but it should be doing alot better and the company is aware it should be doing better in the country where its shares are registered.

On the sunny Kapiti Coast.

Countdown paraparaumu - shelves nearly always empty.
New world paraparaumu - not regularly there but mostly empty.
New World waikanae - nearly always empty.

Does anyone know how the details on the arrangement with fresha valley? Do they take a cut for each bottle sold? Or is it commercially sensitive?


Maybe if I buy some A2 shares I will start asking the supermarket to let me into the coldstore to top up the shelves with A2 when I am at the shops :)

[MAC]

a2mc reported a grand total of $126k from New Zealand operations at FY14, $247k the year before at FY13.

“The New Zealand segment receives income from milk and infant formula sales, and royalty, licence fee and management fee income”.

So, the answer is they receive five eights of bugger all from Fresha Valley, a grand total of 0.11% of all revenues at FY14.

The revenues received probably only just cover the salary and overhead for a contract administrator to oversee the Fresha Valley licensing contract.

But, if nothing else, it provides some Kiwi’s at least with a2 milk, and of course an absolutely obsessive distraction for us here on ST forum away from the real business of global growth.

6694

[see weed]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

a2 drinkers like myself will never drink coca cola a1 milk. As the a2 story comes to light in USA, more and more people will start to buy a2 milk. Coca Cola, like Fontera will not like to bring the subject up about a2 too often, it would draw to much attention to a2. What might happen is Coca Cola could make a $3 or $4 take over bid for ATM down the track sometime.:D

[Harrie]

I know and I appreciate that you are a great advocate of a2 see weed, but unfortunately you and other a2 followers represent only a tiny portion of the educated market. My point is that ATM have headwinds with marketing and competition constraints in the USA and with the introduction of Fairlife more competition IMO with the marketing spin likely to come from those quarters. Naturally those who are more health conscious and are interested enough to look into it more deeply will clue on straight away. Unfortunately at the moment they are by far the minority, hence the tricky marketing and promotion job for ATM.

[xafalcon]

All of us on this site understand the health benefits available from a1 free milk or conversely potential downsides of the a1 protein.

Not everyone

I have worked in NZ dairy industry over 25 years in techincal/scientific roles. From what I get out of research papers on this, the jury is still out. Nope, re-phrase that. The jury hasn't even been selected yet. Like most research, outcomes are generally dictated by what the funder wants confirmed. Sad, but true. Science has been for sale for the past 20 years.

My take from what I have read and know from my time in the industry is that A2 milk (the product, not the company) is a marketing angle, pure and simple. Exactly the same as "permeate free" milk - considered by many Aussies as superior to milk with permeate, but they don't really know what permeate is, where it comes from or what it's purpose in the milk really is. Exactly the same as goat milk - considered by some to be lower allergen (an immune system reaction to a protein) than cows milk, but exactly the same proteins are present as cows milk, just in different proportions to cow milk. Exactly the same as Stolle hyper-immune milk, inject the cows with human pathogens, they produce antibodies which pass into the milk, humans drink the milk and believe they get improved immunity. Night milk, which may have elevated levels of serotonin and help people sleep. The list goes on

If A2 milk really was the best milk, with robust proof to support the claimed benefits, livestock improvements would have a catalog weighted in favour of these genetics. Fonterra would be actively guiding their farmers into systematic animal breeding changes to transition their milk protein profile. But neither company has bought into the idea because the weight of science does not support this. It is nothing to do with Fonterra being mainly A1 and having to support this milk variant - virtually all of the worlds bovine milk is A1. You can guarantee that if there was a financial benefit for Fonterra suppliers (or other major dairy company suppliers) providing A2 milk, it would be pursued vigorously.

If consumers choose to use A2 milk, and they feel they get a benefit from it, power to them. Same for the consumers of the other examples I listed above. But they are all niche products that can't strongly promote the perceived benefits of their respective products because the evidence just isn't robust. And niche products can easily get crouded out by competition with deeper pockets, changed consumer perceptions, new scientific evidence, or even an unrelated product defect.

I am not working with/for Fonterra. I have used them as an example because they are driven by commercial returns and have a very large research division actively searching for new and innovative products to improve long term returns to their shareholders.

[NT001]

I have worked in NZ dairy industry over 25 years in techincal/scientific roles. From what I get out of research papers on this, the jury is still out....My take from what I have read and know from my time in the industry is that A2 milk (the product, not the company) is a marketing angle, pure and simple....

If A2 milk really was the best milk, with robust proof to support the claimed benefits, livestock improvements would have a catalog weighted in favour of these genetics. Fonterra would be actively guiding their farmers into systematic animal breeding changes to transition their milk protein profile. But neither company has bought into the idea because the weight of science does not support this.

Hi Falcon

Not sure how long you've been following this thread, but there has been a fair bit of detail about the science behind A2. You may prefer to reject the research that is in any way connected with a2MC, and that's a legitimate position to take, but there is now heaps of independent scientific research, published in peer-reviewed journals, not only backing it up but leading the way. For example, research showing the link between A1 and autism came out of US universities, and was a surprise to a2MC. Parents of autistic kids in Australia also discovered for themselves that switching to A2 greatly reduced the effects of autism. And research identifying links between A1 milk and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) likewise came from teams unrelated to a2MC. Won't bore you with more examples.

You mention that Fonterra does not promote the A2 hypothesis, and the fact that it is not publicly encouraging NZ dairy farmers to convert to A2. Well, the idea that A1 could be triggering human medical problems such as diabetes originally came from Fonterra's chief of research, Dr Jeremy Hill, who co-authored a paper on it, although he keeps quiet about it nowadays. Fonterra also fought A2 Corp through the courts (unsuccessfully) to get possession of the crucial patent on identifying A2 cows. Why? And you don't see Fonterra and its big research team disputing the research being done all round the world that backs up the risk factors in A1 milk, or the claims made by a2MC. Why? They would if they could, obviously, but they can't.

Finally, you are completely mistaken in suggesting that the dairy industry's livestock improvement catalog is not weighted in favour of A2 genetics. It is heavily weighted in favour of A2 genetics. As most people with knowledge of NZ dairy breeding know, the Livestock Improvement Corporation clearly identifies whether its premium bulls are A2 or not, and virtually all of them are now pure A2. So even though Fonterra doesn't want to declare publicly that there are human health reasons for converting away from A1, dairy farmers are moving quietly towards conversion by breeding from LIC's A2 bulls.

[Harrie]

Looking fwd to Falcons response to that one NT!

[kizame]

Finally, you are completely mistaken in suggesting that the dairy industry's livestock improvement catalog is not weighted in favour of A2 genetics. It is heavily weighted in favour of A2 genetics. As most people with knowledge of NZ dairy breeding know, the Livestock Improvement Corporation clearly identifies whether its premium bulls are A2 or not, and virtually all of them are now pure A2. So even though Fonterra doesn't want to declare publicly that there are human health reasons for converting away from A1, dairy farmers are moving quietly towards conversion by breeding from LIC's A2 bulls.

Hi NT, Doesn't that statement that the general fleet of A1 cows are being bred slowly into A2 present some problems,presuming you can breed out A1 genes without having pure A2 cows to breed from.What would then happen? Fonterra would accidently have an A2 herd,so I'm sure they would love to market this,hyperthetically of course,as A2 milk,presuming one day the nations cows all became A2.
Of course it probably couldn't happen that way as there would always be A1 genes in the mix,but interesting none the less,and hopefully by that time A2MC had been bought out.haha
Hmmn...

[see weed]

Good on you NT. You tell it straight to xaf. Keep up the positive facts.:t_up:

[NT001]

Hi Kizame

Although many dairy farms will increase the proportion of A2 in their herds through breeding with semen from A2 bulls, you are correct in pointing out that this process does not by itself achieve A2 herd purity. Disposal of the remaining mixed A1/A2 cows/calves will at some stage be necessary, which of course interferes with milk production.

At present, a farmer wanting to build up an A2 herd is able to buy pure A2 cows from farmers who are not interested in converting, and selling the mixed-gene cows in return, but it will gradually become more difficult to find farmers willing to sell A2 cows in exchange for mixed-gene cows.

And as more and more farmers receive a premium for supplying pure A2 milk, which can offset the initial costs of conversion, it's hard to predict whether such a premium will continue.

[robbo24]

There's some pretty mad-ass bullish divergence on the charts for ATM.

Everyone just use your chart-imagination...

Bolly bands are closed, SP has been going down while MACD, RSI, Ult Oscillator and Stochastics are alltrending upwards. Williams %R shows very oversold and DMI ADX suggests the downtrend is weak...

Looks kind of like the SMA 50 might have a wee go at the SMA 100 too...

ATM gonna turn around? :D:D

[BFG]

There's some pretty mad-ass bullish divergence on the charts for ATM.

Everyone just use your chart-imagination...

Bolly bands are closed, SP has been going down while MACD, RSI, Ult Oscillator and Stochastics are alltrending upwards. Williams %R shows very oversold and DMI ADX suggests the downtrend is weak...

Looks kind of like the SMA 50 might have a wee go at the SMA 100 too...

ATM gonna turn around? :D:D

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

[robbo24]

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

I can't use my chart-imagination on this comment so I am unmoved.

:D

[MAC]

From the FY14 report;

“Income and expense items are translated at the average exchange rates for the period, unless exchange rates fluctuated significantly during that period, in which case the exchange rates at the dates of the transactions are used”

It would seem that although the half year to 31 December 2014 ended with NZD/AUD = 0.95, the average exchange rate for the reporting period was around 0.92, around 0.88 for the prior HY period.

Thus a move of around 4.5% for the pending HY15 report, compared with the dramatic 12.5% move we saw at FY14 reporting.

ATM have told us that the first four months of the HY15 reporting period saw Australian sales growth of 38% in AUD terms.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/a2MC-2014-AGM-presentation.pdf

Extrapolating that growth rate and applying the exchange rate movement, provides for estimated HY15 revenues of around NZD$71M (+32%).

Perhaps we may also see a little contribution from introductory fresh milk sales into china and maybe, perhaps we all hope, an uptick in UK growth too.

It’s all coarse I know, but I don’t think the pending HY will really look too shabby actually ?

[kizame]

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

Yep true,but look at the support at 55-56,volume is way down and narrow bollingers,I actually thought it was breaking out yesterday but dropped 2c at the last minute.My personal opinion is that it has bottomed and is bouncing along the bottom,yesterdays drop was on tiny volume,and the volume for the last month or so hasn't been high.
Time will tell whether I'm right or wrong.

[airedale]

I am with kizame on this one. The tiny volumes being traded don't allow me to draw any meaningful conclusions. Volume traded is like the wind blowing the yacht. The more volume the faster the yacht will go. In whichever direction.

[NT001]

Interesting article on the Australian milk wars, which has a good mention of A2 and the possibility it may soon become the second biggest grocery milk brand in Aussie supermarkets as the two mainstream suppliers bludgeon each other into unprofitability.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/milk-wars-likely-to-claim-more-victims-yet-20150123-12wirn.html

[MAC]

Interesting article on the Australian milk wars, which has a good mention of A2 and the possibility it may soon become the second biggest grocery milk brand in Aussie supermarkets as the two mainstream suppliers bludgeon each other into unprofitability.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/milk-wars-likely-to-claim-more-victims-yet-20150123-12wirn.html

Yep, competitively they're in a good place, and will have a chair when the music stops.

It would come as no surprise I think that Aussie insto's and fundies might wish to take up holdings after the ASX listing.

Why not choose the stock that is growing the fastest within the sector, and the one that has a competitive marketing advantage, to hold within specific portfolios.

Don't anticipate it will happen on day one, but incrementally over the next year or so, quite probably IMO.

[MAC]

A nice confirmation of market share up to 9.3%, put's them right on track ahead of reporting next month.

“some consumers have turned to cheap private label milk, and others to A2 Milk, which now had 9.3 per cent market share”

http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/magazine/industry-news/general/milk-wars-likely-to-claim-more-victims-yet/2721990.aspx?storypage=0

Peter Nathan on the milk wars and the competition whilst a2mc continue to contently gain market share;

He sees a point where one of his rivals will be forced to exit the milk industry in Australia.

"It is clear that consumers are increasingly not perceiving any meaningful differentiation between mainstream brands from Lion and Parmalat and private label milk," Nathan said.

"This trend is likely to result in retailers driving further consolidation in the mainstream segment. Putting it bluntly, retailers won't need both Lion and Parmalat mainstream brands in their stores in the future."

[sb9]

Anyone here going to the Special Meeting today? will be interesting I think.

[NT001]

Just came across this nice plug recently for a2 milk in the mass-circulation Daily Mirror by English inside back rugby star Danny Cipriani. It's obviously just incidental to his various foodie preferences and not at all a sponsored promotion. Well put, and it won't do any harm, at all to a2MC's campaign in England.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/lifestyle/health/rugby-star-danny-cipriani-milk-4980721

[MAC]

Wow, are you sure he wasnt paid? That is a big plug in a major newspaper. Every bodybuilder, aspiring athlete, professional athlete will probably be rushing the A2 milk aisle now just in case its performance enhancing even if you dont have milk intolerances LOL

That is a good endorsement, will be on the a2mc website in no time with the others, all blacks sponsorship next perhaps.

Though, I'm sure someone may point out to Danny that adding a2 milk to ones a1/a2 whey protein only gets one half way there. Although, you can but a2 whey protein in the US now, perhaps he does import it, well paid sports folk in all.

[see weed]

Anyone here going to the Special Meeting today? will be interesting I think.

Yeah, long meeting indeed. Must of been 10 to 15 minutes at most. No new shares to be issued. The brokers will be sorting out the number of shares the Aussies get. They won't be getting any of mine. Very nice devonshire tea afterwards, but am not sure if the cream was a1 or a2. Every one at the meeting voted I's, there were no Na's.

[Harrie]

Good point MAC and thanks for the link NT

There is a bit of confusion here though because it looks like on one hand he is promoting a2 milk but on the other hand he is giving up animal based whey protein in favour of plant based protein. Bit of a mixed message because a2 is an animal based protein. Maybe because he is not using a2 whey protein with a2 milk is why he is opting for the plant based protein.

"I’ve even had to change my protein shakes from animal-based whey protein to a plant-based protein – to limit my bloating – which I drink two or three times a day after "

Thats probably a message to the uninitiated that a2 might make you feel better if you use it in coffee and drink it with meals but it does not stop the bloating when mixed with whey, which is what I have read into it. Nevertheless a positive for a2 milk in the UK.

[MAC]

Good point MAC and thanks for the link NT

There is a bit of confusion here though because it looks like on one hand he is promoting a2 milk but on the other hand he is giving up animal based whey protein in favour of plant based protein. Bit of a mixed message because a2 is an animal based protein. Maybe because he is not using a2 whey protein with a2 milk is why he is opting for the plant based protein.

Thats probably a message to the uninitiated that a2 might make you feel better if you use it in coffee and drink it with meals but it does not stop the bloating when mixed with whey, which is what I have read into it. Nevertheless a positive for a2 milk in the UK.

Perhaps so, you can buy a2 whey online though, not cheap, US$54.99 for 2lbs;

http://www.sfh.com/products/whey_protein/2lb_bags/fuel_-_2lb_bag

http://www.sfh.com/products/whey_protein/single_serving_pouches/fuel_-_single_serving_pouches_

http://www.sfh.com/education/science_wheyoverview

I wrote to ATM a little over a year ago to ask if they were collecting royalties from this company, must be as they are still selling, patent rights and all that ?

Quite an enormous untapped market for a2mc , but I suppose a company must have to have a cheese process to make it economic to produce a2 whey protein as a by-product.

[NT001]

Hi MAC and Harrie

Cipriani's reference to whey protein is not relevant to the A1-A2 issue, although some people may be a little confused by it because it all relates to dairy products.

Prof Woodford's invaluable book (which includes a kind of "milk science for dummies") makes clear that the BCM7 peptides in A1 milk that make it dangerous are not generated by whey. In several parts of his book he distinguishes clearly between casein and whey protein and makes clear the A1-A2 debate relates only to casein protein.

This would be one reason why people with certain medical issues and adverse reactions to standard milk can get around them by converting to whey-based products, which of course are not real whole milk.

[Thor]

MAC, I don't think there is a legitimate market for A2 whey, it's an oxymoron. The A1/A2 issue is all around the beta-casein protein in milk, not the whey protein component. About 80% of the protein in milk is beta-casein, and 20% whey, and unless you buy a blended protein powder, it won't contain any beta-casein.

Think A2 cottage cheese. Now that is a powerhouse of beta-casein protein. :eek2:

[MAC]

Ha, must be a lucrative scam Thor in that case for someone out there, quite a few sites that are selling it, all US based as far as I can tell. Ah well, shows the potential for a2 in the market over there I guess, real or not.

[NT001]

This is just a guess, but remember that some farms in the US did go through the A2 conversion process to take part in A2 Corp's initial entry into the US milk market, but when this project was aborted they had to commit their milk to other products. This company could have been involved it that project, and just continues to run the A2 promo to bolster the case for its whey protein, although that's not relevant.

[MAC]

I think Hy-Vee are still selling a2 milk in the US;

http://www.hy-vee.com/health/healthy-bites/The-Original-Milk-Returns.aspx

Perhaps it's a trace or a process thing NT, maybe a residual amount of a1 remains in the whey, wouldn't know. There's not a lot of protein in cheese though when one reads the labels.

[janner]

there were no Na's.

Very Anzac.. :-))))))

[janner]

there were no Na's.

Very Anzac.. Indeed :-))))))

[NT001]

I think Hy-Vee are still selling a2 milk in the US;

http://www.hy-vee.com/health/healthy-bites/The-Original-Milk-Returns.aspx

Perhaps it's a trace or a process thing NT, maybe a residual amount of a1 remains in the whey, wouldn't know. There's not a lot of protein in cheese though when one reads the labels.

That's interesting MAC, but not being a techical geek I can't see anything at first sight that tells me how long that file has been up. Is it recent and current? I wasn't aware that Hy-Vee were still marketing A2 Milk as such. From memory their main territory was not on the West Coast, where the new launch is to be focused.

[MAC]

Just the mid west, I don't know NT how long it would have been up, not sure it would stay if they weren’t still selling, not much to go on really, some recent social media chit chat saying which stores have stock it. Perhaps someone who's been there recently could say how extensively ?

[Harrie]

How many more times do I need to look at the 57 number being hit dead on 5pm? It's really quite unusual. A bit baffling really. It's as though a broker is given the order to sell to whoever is on the market at 57 and above. In other words just take them out. No SSH notices either?

[winner69]

How many more times do I need to look at the 57 number being hit dead on 5pm? It's really quite unusual. A bit baffling really. It's as though a broker is given the order to sell to whoever is on the market at 57 and above. In other words just take them out. No SSH notices either?

Must be some dodgy stuff going on?

[NT001]

How many more times do I need to look at the 57 number being hit dead on 5pm? It's really quite unusual. A bit baffling really. It's as though a broker is given the order to sell to whoever is on the market at 57 and above. In other words just take them out. No SSH notices either?

This is what I've been commenting on for some time. It is very suspicious. How does one go about raising this with investigators? It bears some resemblances to the case in which Brian Henry was convicted for manipulating Diligent shares, partly by manipulating the closing price. In that instance the NZX referred the matter to the FMA. Is there a view amongst us that an inquiry should be called for? I know some on the thread think it's just natural market forces at work, but that doesn't really wash. Of course one has to think a bit about the impact an inquiry could have on the upcoming Aussie listing. On the other hand, if it IS manipulation designed to distort the Aussie launch, or to lay the ground for a takeover bid of some kind, better that it be done before too late.

[Harrie]

Having said all that NT I am of the view that there is nothing illegal going on, just some one wanting out. There is nothing wrong with giving an instruction to a broker to sell to any buyer who has a bid price of 57c and above. There has to be stock to sell, as you can't short the market on these shares. A seller has the right to sell whatever volume at whatever price at whatever time. Thats my take on it, but if it is one particular seller doing this there is an awful number of shares being sold down which would theoretically trigger a SSH disclosure.
I'm a bit surprised that there was an enquiry around this same point with diligent. I was unaware of that. What was the result of that enquiry?

[Harrie]

Just thinking that if AMP capital is still selling then they will be under the 5% threshold now and therefore no need to issue a SSH disclosure notice.
Trading is around 500k average a day and this has been going on for a few months. Assume half of it is AMP at avererage 250k a day over 3 months = approx 60 trading days = 15mil shares. From memory they had 37 mil so many more to go yet. If they are selling the lot which they appear to be insistant on doing then expect the 55 to 57 range to hang around a lot longer yet and the 57 buyers to be continually hit at 5pm.

[NT001]

Having said all that NT I am of the view that there is nothing illegal going on, just some one wanting out. There is nothing wrong with giving an instruction to a broker to sell to any buyer who has a bid price of 57c and above. There has to be stock to sell, as you can't short the market on these shares. A seller has the right to sell whatever volume at whatever price at whatever time. Thats my take on it, but if it is one particular seller doing this there is an awful number of shares being sold down which would theoretically trigger a SSH disclosure.
I'm a bit surprised that there was an enquiry around this same point with diligent. I was unaware of that. What was the result of that enquiry?

Here's the FMA's report on the Brian Henry case. I haven't boned up on the full details of the case enough to know how comparable it was. There were much bigger issues against Henry than in just setting the closing price but that was part of the allegation against him.

https://www.fma.govt.nz/keep-updated/newsroom/media-releases/2014/brian-henry-admits-market-manipulation

I accept completely that it is a seller's right to give such an instruction to a broker, but the absence of SSHs does make one wonder. It seems to me that it's not impossible that circular bidding is going on, aimed at setting the price, but I'm not by any means expert enough in how the market operates to know whether this could be the case.

[Harrie]

Thanks for the article re Brian Henry NT.
I can see that there is an issue if a shareholder is manipulating a market up for the purposes of selling shareholding into it after a false impression of volume and share price, but I'm not sure if the same issue apply's to manipulatng a SP down, unless its for the purpose of a takeover bid, in which case you have to prove intention. Moreover in the Diligent case manipulation was a lot easier because of illiquidity whereas thats a lot harder in ATM as its more liquid and far more dangerous to a seller at these levels given the potential growth tragetory in the longer term.
No, I think it is just one or two institutions thinking they are over exposed, a change in portfolio management philosophy or some other reason that is driving them to sell down IMO.

[Harrie]

Correction: Make note to broker to take out anyone with a buy order of 56c or above at 5pm!

[sb9]

Make that 54c now, the knives are out....

[Kirk]

Whats caused this share price drop? Are investor expecting A2 to announce another low profit period due to the impact of the high exchange rate along wiht increased levels of investment in new markets

[MAC]

Whats caused this share price drop? Are investor expecting A2 to announce another low profit period due to the impact of the high exchange rate along wiht increased levels of investment in new markets

Not really,


From the FY14 report;

“Income and expense items are translated at the average exchange rates for the period, unless exchange rates fluctuated significantly during that period, in which case the exchange rates at the dates of the transactions are used”

It would seem that although the half year to 31 December 2014 ended with NZD/AUD = 0.95, the average exchange rate for the reporting period was around 0.92, around 0.88 for the prior HY period.

Thus a move of around 4.5% for the pending HY15 report, compared with the dramatic 12.5% move we saw at FY14 reporting.

ATM have told us that the first four months of the HY15 reporting period saw Australian sales growth of 38% in AUD terms.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/a2MC-2014-AGM-presentation.pdf

Extrapolating that growth rate and applying the exchange rate movement, provides for estimated HY15 revenues of around NZD$71M (+32%).

Perhaps we may also see a little contribution from introductory fresh milk sales into china and maybe, perhaps we all hope, an uptick in UK growth too.

It’s all coarse I know, but I don’t think the pending HY will really look too shabby actually ?

[bull....]

58c was big support, it has failed now so have 45c as a target for mthly, quarterly

they need to prove there multi market strategy will work? sceptical considering they havnt been able to replicate it in uk yet and now they want to take it to china and the us? go figure hope im proved wrong time will tell

[MAC]

Crikey give them more than five minutes would ya! :)

Yes, the delays in the UK and China were one off events, their UK JV partner being bought out and Chinese regulatory changes. New markets have opened up in Asia as planned, fresh milk and UHT and we should just start to see initial revenues from those this pending report.

Guidance: “Whilst revenue growth in China and the UK are presently well behind original plan, this shortfall should be compensated by sales of infant formula in Australia and other products in both Australia and Asia”

[Snoopy]

Yes, the delays in the UK and China were one off events, their UK JV partner being bought out and Chinese regulatory changes. New markets have opened up in Asia as planned, fresh milk and UHT and we should just start to see initial revenues from those this pending report.

Guidance: “Whilst revenue growth in China and the UK are presently well behind original plan, this shortfall should be compensated by sales of infant formula in Australia and other products in both Australia and Asia”

That is a very rose tinted way of lookiing at things. As an outsider, it looks to me like the success in Australia was the one off event. If Australia is only worth 15c of the current share price, there is an enormous amount of blue sky valuation built into a share price of 54c.

Snoopys easy valuation guide on ATM:

Share price begins with 2 => undervalued (Snoopy a buyer)
Share price begins with 3 => fairly valued
Share price begins with 4 => overvalued
Share price begins with 5 => grossly overvalued

SNOOPY

[winner69]

That is a very rose tinted way of lookiing at things. As an outsider, it looks to me like the success in Australia was the one off event. If Australia is only worth 15c of the current share price, there is an enormous amount of blue sky valuation built into a share price of 54c.

Snoopys easy valuation guide on ATM:

Share price begins with 2 => undervalued (Snoopy a buyer)
Share price begins with 3 => fairly valued
Share price begins with 4 => overvalued
Share price begins with 5 => grossly overvalued

SNOOPY

What was it when it was just under a $1?

[see weed]

Stuff this , I'm out to Piha for a wave. If sp still low next week will buy more. Have a good weekend . (Drink more a2 )

[Harrie]

Its certainly not overvalued using the projected forward sales number to valuation. Market cap now at around $356 mio and sales projection around $156 mio so trading way less than 3 times sales. I'm really hoping it gets down to Snoopy's fair valuation number so that I can average down my buy in price.

[winner69]

Its certainly not overvalued using the projected forward sales number to valuation. Market cap now at around $356 mio and sales projection around $156 mio so trading way less than 3 times sales. I'm really hoping it gets down to Snoopy's fair valuation number so that I can average down my buy in price.

Just out of curiosity why do you think 3 times sales is a reasonable valuation metric?

[Harrie]

Seems to be one valuation of the few that looks consistant with other food orientated companies which range from the 2's to the 8's. eg freedom.
p/e's and earnings multiples don't make a lot of sense in growth companies. There is no such thing as fair value in these companies. Fair is based on what we know now, tomorrow is a different story but by then you have missed eh!

[MAC]

Absolutely undervalued according to four analysts with a consensus $0.80 price target, two with buy ratings, two with hold ratings. That’s +48% for those that want it prior to the ASX listing, US entry announcement, and HY report in one month’s time.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=ATM.NZ

Personally I think ATM is one of the most undervalued stocks on the NZX at present. Valued comfortably at DCF $1.10 as far as I’m concerned.

[NT001]

There are two contrasting schools of thought on valuing ATM. Its medium and longer term valuation is obviously somewhat speculative but that's where the real potential lies, and on that basis it would be currently undervalued, probably very much so. But clearly there is also an element of impatience that the immediate profits have been slow in coming - like PEB - and valuations based on short term expectations will inevitably be lower, not only for traders but also for investors with short time horizons.

There's an inevitable contrast between the TA and the FA perspective, very much increased by a lack of understanding by many ATM holders and watchers as to what the A1-A2 thing is really all about and how it is going to become a bigger health issue globally - a really big one. There's already enough science to say with certainty that A1 is a significant factor in diabetes and heart disease as well as autism and milk intolerance etc, but the process of turning indicative findings and epidemiological evidence into absolute proof of causation will be a gradual one. Hence the full potential of ATM will take time to be realised.

I recommend strongly (again) the need to pretty much ignore the so-called "debate" that one reads in the media about the alleged "lack of evidence" about A2, and first read Prof Keith Woodford's book "Devil in the Milk" which has already refuted all the arguments against it. Since his book came out there have been no new valid criticisms of the A2 hypothesis. And what is really significant is that no one from mainstream dairy, which commands huge research resources worldwide, has shot down any of his thesis. The criticisms you see are commercial rhetoric, designed to undermine the A2 hypothesis without producing any scientific refutation of it.

If nothing else, for a useful summary, read Woodford's brief 2010 addendum to the first edition of his 2007 book, available on the web at

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2010/05/29/updating-devil-in-the-milk/

That is already several years old and has since been strongly supported by heaps of new research, and not contradicted by any. Prof Woodford follows the research closely and periodically issues updates on it. He gives papers to scientific gatherings where they are subject to challenge but receive virtually none, and covers the A2 issue in occasional articles in his regular Sunday Star Times column, all of which are usually reprinted on his blog at

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/

A brief but good plain-language article published on his blog site in 2011, albeit also now three years out of date, is at

https://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/woodford-jul-2011-journal-of-integrative-medicine.pdf

There will be continuing propaganda efforts by mainstream dairy to denigrate A2, but the research by independent groups in many countries is all moving in one direction, demonstrating the medical risks to at least certain categories of consumers of A1 and its digestive by-product BCM7.

[MAC]

I would agee NT001 that a conclusive outcome to the scientific debate being positive as a result of the pending human trials would be a bonus on the status quo.

The debate in itself for now though is an exceptional marketing tool regardless of a long term outcome.

Debate --> Awareness --> Supermarket Sales

What some miss I think is two things, the first is the earnings sacrifice for growth, present eps does not value a high growth company, it’s long run cashflows that value growth companies.

The second is the gross margins that we see from the a2 proposition which will ultimately determine the value of cashflows of the company when cyclical. a2mc has the highest gross margins within the sector, they pay around 10% more at the farm gate for the a2 milk and sell it for 50% more across the retail counter.

Some may doubt that the UK, China and US markets will take off, fair enough, but we won’t know for another one to two years yet. For now though the company is performing ahead of forecast within Australia.

Let’s see what the half year brings, the new shorter establishment time markets, fresh milk, infant formula and UHT into China, and infant formula growth in Australia should be starting to register.

[winner69]

Correction: Make note to broker to take out anyone with a buy order of 56c or above at 5pm!


I take it your man not selling today

Waiting for a better day?

[NT001]

I would agee NT001 that a conclusive outcome to the scientific debate being positive as a result of the pending human trials would be a bonus on the status quo.

The debate in itself for now though is an exceptional marketing tool regardless of a long term outcome.

Yes MAC, human trials are what everyone wants to see, and they can be implemented in areas such as autism and digestive difficulties, producing clear results. But with heart disease and diabetes it's different, because of the long lapse times involved, just like with smoking and lung cancer. You don't smoke a cigarette one day and get lung cancer the following week or month or year, and direct causality becomes incredibly difficult to demonstrate. But you can do controlled trials with A1 milk using mice, rats and rabbits, which exclude the possibility of other causal factors, and they have been done with clear results in very short time-frames.

And the fact that BCM7 can get into the human bloodstream where it can trigger such diseases, which was denied on spurious grounds by the European Food Safety Authority in its report commissioned by the NZ government, has since been thoroughly proven.

So even though "human trials" of the kind demanded by many skeptics are simply not feasible, there are other completely convincing scientific proofs, which will increasingly be accepted as conclusive.

I don't like the use of "debate" as a marketing tool, because it leaves so much room for denial, skepticism and suspicion, and that's why I tend to harp on about the importance of the scientific research, which can't really be disputed except by counter-research, of which there is none or precious little in this case.

[Snoopy]

What was it when it was just under a $1?


You are talking a year ago when ATM peaked at some 95c, Jan-Feb 2014. IMO ATM still has the same ultimate potential as it had back then. However, since then another market was expected to come on stream strong to fund the upcoming growth in the USA. This hasn't happened. Some would say this is a short term delay in ATMs sure footed plan to conquer the world. I would say it looks like the rest of the world won't catch on to A2 milk as quickly as Australia did. Even if the same ultimate goal is reached, a time delay means a lower valuation because the discounted valuation of future cashflows gets pushed further away. If another market doesn't get cashflow positive quickly this increases the likelihood of a new ATM cash issue. That means new ATM shares available to mum and dad at a discount, so why buy today? Perhaps a new cash issue won't happen. But the greater the likelihood of such an event, the more that weighs on the ATM share price.

95c was from a time when hardly anyone envisaged the rest of the world supermarkets not adopting A2 as fast the Coles/Woolies duopoly back in Australia. No imminent cash issue meant people who wanted more ATM had to buy on the market.

When the overall goal remains the same but the speed needed to get there is reduced and money needed to get there is increased...... That means the share price will have to go lower to reflect the change in timing and net capital spend of the business plan. I am sure I could dream up some complicated mathematical model to account for this. But some might say that Mr Market has solved this problem for us. 95c (grossly overvalued) this time last year is equivalent to 54c (grossly overvalued) this year, despite the future goalposts remaining the same.

SNOOPY

[MAC]

Certainly as time goes by there seem to be less and less dieticians and scientists on the nay side of the matter, but what it all does do, at time ticks by, is maintain an awareness level in the media and on health and wellness sites.

For your average consumer who doesn’t read through the scientific papers, it’s all still a bit he said she said. And, that won’t change straight away overnight even with conclusive trial outcomes, it may still take a couple of years.

But, that’s not a bad thing because for a certain percentage of consumers, the outcome of that “apparent debate” then shall we call it, is “I’ll try it for myself and see”.

Every consumer doing that adds to the now 9.3% market share, onward and forward.

[kizame]

Snoopy wrote.

When the overall goal remains the same but the speed needed to get there is reduced and money needed to get there is increased...... That means the share price will have to go lower to reflect the change in timing and net capital spend of the business plan. I am sure I could dream up some complicated mathematical model to account for this. But some might say that Mr Market has solved this problem for us. 95c (grossly overvalued) this time last year is equivalent to 54c (grossly overvalued) this year, despite the future goalposts remaining the same.

If last year 95c was seen as overvalued,at which it certainly may have been,why then now it has retraced to 54c,should it be seen as overvalued now. IMOP You don't see these overvaluations until hindsight kicks in,this means a few months need to go by,and the shareprice retreat further to prove that. The only reason that I can see that the shareprice retreated yesterday was the article about dairy production dropping due to the extended dry spell,and i guess the flow on implications for A2 that some out there have perceived.
Meanwhile though Synlait quietly meanders higher.
With shareprice being overvalued,it is proven when looking at a chart and seeing the price coming off the highs to better value.

[MAC]

Certainly a2mc are on track against their the 2012 strategic plan,

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/A2-Strategic-Review-2012.pdf

They have adjusted their revenue goal slightly from FY16 $280M to FY16 $230M to reflect currency movements, I’m ok with that as a long term investor, I can’t predict currency movements accurately four years ahead either.

They are ahead of plan in Australia, they had one off delays in the UK and with infant formula to China, but as they tell us they have compensated with additional faster access markets into Asia.

All good, on track, well managed, under control.

I would say that management are performing very well, they continue to both identify and to move quickly into markets beyond the 2012 plan including the fresh milk market into China and the US market.

In 2012 the company had one market in Australia, since then they have invested heavily and are continuing to do, and now have four markets in development, Australia, UK , China and the US.

Yes, costs have gone up of course, including necessary corporate overhead, and these costs are commensurate of a company growing very fast. From one market to four in just a few years. Each market requiring establishment costs, corporate costs and within market overheads.

Also all well and good.

One does not grow three new businesses in three new countries without investment, but if one trusts in the business model, those three new businesses will all return very good cashflows in a couple of years.

a2mc are one of the best companies at managing earnings sacrifice for growth, and for the last three years they have held earnings remarkably accurate at as close to zero as they possibly can whilst re-investing every skerick. That takes very good management and accounting indeed to do so.

Some are uncertain if the new markets will be successful, each to their own, but certainly even if just one of three develops as well as Australia has, than a2mc will be doing very well indeed.

[winner69]

Anybody have any idea what the cash (investing cash that is) is needed over the next 5 years to make this growth happen.

I note 2013 was $5.8m and 2014 was $7.5m ......what about the next few years?

Just updating DCF

.

Asked this a few months ago but got no answers,

Anybody know? Has a bearing on DCF output.

[winner69]

I take it the numbers from Reuters for these analyst estimates are a load o **** ....esp the .73 ($) eps for FY15


http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=ATM.NZ

[Harrie]

I take it your man not selling today

Waiting for a better day?

Well well so my 5pm man did not hit it on Friday W69
Here are some possible explanations:
1. Not prepared to sell under 54c
2. forgot to advise the broker
3. Was on holiday
4. No more to sell (unlikely)
5. Changed his mind when he looked at the hold recommendations and valuations at around 80c
6. thinking that he was getting too predictable
7. Started drinking a2 on See weeds recommendation and liked it
8. Could be concentrating on selling down other stocks in anticipation of a GFC mark2

[ziggy415]

was just thinking....imagine if seeweed had invested in a condom factory in stead of A2 milk....standing outside a supermarket handing out advice to all the pregnant mums and even some free samples

[Xerof]

I'm sure they would see him coming.......

[winner69]

What I can't work out is if a2 has nearly 10% of the fresh milk market in Australia and sales maybe $150m this year the fresh milk market isn't very big for such a large country is it.

Just doesn't seem right

[winner69]

Found something that said supermarket fresh milk sales were just over $2 billion last year with growth of 0.6%

With supermarket markups suppose 10% share is about right

So reality checking sales in my DCF model reverse engineered to support a $1 shareprice a2 share will be nearly 30% in 5 years ....umm

Back to the drawing board.

Any idea of future capex?

[Harrie]

95c was from a time when hardly anyone envisaged the rest of the world supermarkets not adopting A2 as fast the Coles/Woolies duopoly back in Australia. No imminent cash issue meant people who wanted more ATM had to buy on the market.

When the overall goal remains the same but the speed needed to get there is reduced and money needed to get there is increased...... That means the share price will have to go lower to reflect the change in timing and net capital spend of the business plan. 95c (grossly overvalued) this time last year is equivalent to 54c (grossly overvalued) this year, despite the future goalposts remaining the same.

SNOOPY

I am inclined to think that what snoopy has said here is a fair apraisal of where we are at presently. The fact is that a2 has not progressed as far into other markets as much as the 95c level this time last year had anticipated. Thats not to say that they won't acheive it but it looks likely that it will take longer albeit a lot sooner if the science proves it and the media expose it. I wouldn't trade on that though.
I'm not sure that running DCF models on projected revenues into the future is that reliable either. The most anyone can currently project on is working on the basis that a2 takes a 10% share of the Australian market revenue with around a 15% margin, some growth in the chinese fresh milk, UHT and baby formula and very slow or modest growth in UK and USA. That would give a "fair value" as we know it at the moment, the rest of it is speculative, so remaining invested in the stock or buying more is sensible at these prices even if the numbers show it is above "fair value" on the basis that the investor has confidence in its future growth potential. There will always be a premium over fair value for this on weighted opinion. Investors will need to be patient.

[see weed]

was just thinking....imagine if seeweed had invested in a condom factory in stead of A2 milk....standing outside a supermarket handing out advice to all the pregnant mums and even some free samples

Overheard nice young couple at Countdown Lynfield yesterday, when I was looking for a2 ....there is no choc. milk left. So I jumped in and said this is the best milk a2. just like your partners breast milk...a healther choice, and you can add chocolate and gave them one of my flyers. And the guy said sold, picked up a bottle of a2 and off they went. Don't know about condoms, might get punched over if showing how to do that. Enlightened about 15 people in the last week to a2.:)

[Harrie]

Geez See weed, how much time per week do you actually spend at the supermarket around the milk stand?

[Harrie]

Geez See weed, how much time per week do you actually spend at the supermarket around the milk stand?

[ziggy415]

Overheard nice young couple at Countdown Lynfield yesterday, when I was looking for a2 ....there is no choc. milk left. So I jumped in and said this is the best milk a2. just like your partners breast milk...a healther choice, and you can add chocolate and gave them one of my flyers. And the guy said sold, picked up a bottle of a2 and off they went. Don't know about condoms, might get punched over if showing how to do that. Enlightened about 15 people in the last week to a2.:)

Hi seeweed, does your A2 last till its best by date... about 2 days before best date it starts to turn and then on the use by date my coffee looks like its got goose bumps and is un drinkable

[NT001]

... I'm not sure that running DCF models on projected revenues into the future is that reliable... The most anyone can currently project on is working on the basis that a2 takes a 10% share of the Australian market revenue with around a 15% margin, some growth in the Chinese fresh milk, UHT and baby formula and very slow or modest growth in UK and USA. ... Investors will need to be patient.

Absolutely, Harrie. It's too early to expect big net revenue increases from China, UK and USA in time for the upcoming HY report, though we should see some worthwhile returns in the full-year 2015 results and even more so next year. But it will take a year or two for the UK and US operations to cover initial setup costs and yield profits.

As regards Ziggy's comment on a2 Milk going off before its use-by date, it usually has quite a long best-before time period and personally I wouldn't push it to the limit - same goes for other milk as well. It's also important to ensure it is never left in sunlight, even for short periods. All milk needs to be kept away from UV light, and even half an hour in sunlight can start turning it.

[see weed]

Geez See weed, how much time per week do you actually spend at the supermarket around the milk stand?

About 5 minutes when I go to pick up a2 for myself. Yesterday got 2 people in 5 minutes. If i'm doing the shopping and see someone with more than 3 bottles of milk in their basket, as I did last week, this guy had 6 2litre bottles for his kids, so I pulled him up to tell him about a2. He was very grateful and said he would google it when he gets home. That only took about 3 minutes.

[see weed]

Hi seeweed, does your A2 last till its best by date... about 2 days before best date it starts to turn and then on the use by date my coffee looks like its got goose bumps and is un drinkable

My a2 is normally drunk within 5 days, so still has about a week to go before bb date , but did get caught out once on last day of bb, and had to tip a bit at the bottom out. The bb date is about 2 weeks then gets a bit smelly. If I see a shop selling a2 with one or two days to go ,then I will ask them to remove it from the shelves.

[NT001]

Here are extracts from a paywalled article from BRW which gives a good idea of Australia's dairy export plans into China, including from Freedom Foods, which owns 17% of a2MC and is 60% controlled by the Perich family.

THE group behind one of the *top selling ready-to-drink beverages in China plans to invest $US100 million ($128.4m) on marketing and distributing Australian food products to Chinese children as part of a landmark *alliance with the billionaire *Perich family’s Freedom Foods Group. As the first step in a 50-year agreement between Freedom and the Guangzhou-based Shenzhen *JiaLiLe Food Company, the partners will this weekend launch Australia’s Own Kid’s Milk as one of the first Australian milk products aimed specifically at the *toddler market in China...

The Australia’s Own food range will be produced by Freedom’s Shepparton facility, owned by its Pactum Dairy Group....


Perich family patriarch Tony Perich said Freedom was now doing business with three major Chinese companies.

The others are the Shanghai-based Bright Dairy and Chengdu-based New Hope Dairy....


The move by Freedom comes as a growing number of Austral*asian companies are supplying dairy products to China, largely focusing on the infant market....

Last August, New Zealand’s Fonterra paid $US515m for a stake in Chinese infant formula maker Beingmate Baby & Child Food. It is also looking at selling milk to toddlers over the web.
The Launceston infant formula and baby foodmaker Bellamy’s Australia last year registered a company in China, Tatura Milk Industries, after securing Chinese certification for imports of organic milk formula.
In November, mining magnate Gina Rinehart joined forces with Chinese industrial giant China National Machinery Industry Corporation in a $500m joint venture to export infant milk powder from Queensland to China.
Separately, NSW dairy co-*operative Norco is supplying fresh milk to Chinese supermarkets and plans to more than double sales under a new distribution agreement with a Chinese importer. Last year, New Zealand-listed a2, 17 per cent-owned by Freedom, struck a deal with *Chinese online retailer Jingdong to offer fresh Australian milk to the 500,000 registered users of the site.
While regular cow’s milk contains a blend of A1 and A2 beta *casein proteins, a2 claims it is the only company that processes milk exclusively containing the A2 protein, which many people say is easier to digest.

[MAC]

Three weeks away from HY reporting, anyone wish to have a go at estimating;

First four months in Australia looked fine at AUD38%, exchange rate appreciation not significant this time at 4.5%, infant formula now selling again in China, preliminary revenues from fresh milk airfreight into China, preliminary revenues from UHT into China, perhaps a tick up from the re-launch in the UK, let's see.

Looking for prospective news in regard to possible fresh milk into Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta, an update of the US entry, and the timing of the pending human trials.

Revenues: $70M (+30%)

NPAT sacrificed close to zero for growth: $1.0 to $1.5M (+56% to +133%)

[couta1]

Any news that will stop the miserable decline in the share price would be much appreciated.

[MAC]

Any news that will stop the miserable decline in the share price would be much appreciated.

It's only miserable if you are not topping up :)

[see weed]

It's only miserable if you are not topping up :)

I've been topping up for 7 months now and say thanks to NT001 and MAC and others for their input.

[sb9]

Looking rather grim at the moment....might go even lower 50c I guess. Ugly duckling in my portfolio :confused:

[vin]

Looking rather grim at the moment....might go even lower 50c I guess. Ugly duckling in my portfolio :confused:

Very ugly duckling.

At least my AIR & HNZ looking fine :cool:

Hanging out for an announcement!

[NZSilver]

Looking rather grim at the moment....might go even lower 50c I guess. Ugly duckling in my portfolio :confused:

Yes, really feeling the pinch on this one. Is there likely to be some selling by big holders - still some big holders if you look at significant SH's ie Milford 14 ish % freedom foods 18%, amp/super nz 5+%. Company revenues are strong in AUS, however profits minimal (an likely to be loss making?) whn HY results come in a few weeks. However there are great growth prospects - as long as they can repeat what has occurred in Aus in at least either china, us and uk.

[see weed]

Yes, really feeling the pinch on this one. Is there likely to be some selling by big holders - still some big holders if you look at significant SH's ie Milford 14 ish % freedom foods 18%, amp/super nz 5+%. Company revenues are strong in AUS, however profits minimal (an likely to be loss making?) whn HY results come in a few weeks. However there are great growth prospects - as long as they can repeat what has occurred in Aus in at least either china, us and uk.

I'd say it would be smaller holders have had a guts full and are selling. Looks like the big holders are still there.

[babymonster]

Able to got a mall lot at 49c.

[see weed]

Milford drops about $900,000 every time it moves a cent. Thinking about joining his ks. last year.

[see weed]

not so much topping up.............I think they call it 'snatching at a falling knife'

Lucky it's tax deductable if I sell any:mellow:.

[hilskin]

Coke bets on super milk: more protein, less sugarhttp://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11396536

[MAC]

Not sure why coke would bother when human trials may well very shortly show that enhanced a1/a2 protien may well not actually be the bess knees for health and lifestyle folk after all.

But then they could just buy a2mc at a 63% off sale also at 49c too.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=ATM.NZ

[sb9]

Just throwing it out there, should the recent continued (rapid) fall in sp warrant a "pls explain" by NZX to ATM management?

[bull....]

that 45c target for mth might get hit? big seller, selling or shorting

[couta1]

My Dog and Lemon share register has grown and I'm trying to decide in which category this one belongs hopefully the dog section as every Dog has its day as they say.

[MAC]

Just throwing it out there, should the recent continued (rapid) fall in sp warrant a "pls explain" by NZX to ATM management?

I'm pretty sure ATM would just say "we don't know why", then, perhaps they would have to say the same thing when it goes back up again at reporting time in three weeks.

[Kirk]

Would be a positive signs to see directors buying

[iceman]

I'm just hoping we don't see an opportunistic takeover offer at the current price. That would put a spanner in the works !


My Dog and Lemon share register has grown and I'm trying to decide in which category this one belongs hopefully the dog section as every Dog has its day as they say.

[couta1]

I'm just hoping we don't see an opportunistic takeover offer at the current price. That would put a spanner in the works !
Sure would when your buy in price is 91c :eek2:

[MAC]

Would be a positive signs to see directors buying

I think ATM directors get all the shares they need and more through remuneration, more than most.

It is interesting though that ATM were capital raising effortlessly in December 2012 at 50c.

Revenues then were 18k, should be about 70k in three weeks by reckoning. They had one open market now they have three or four, they had two products now the have, well I've lost count, they operated in one country now in three or four, and preliminary human trials have since put the science a big step closer.

[Jasemc]

How low before it drops out of nzx50

[BFG]

45 cents should provide solid support and arrest the fall on oversold territory. I'd like to know whose shorting this stock aggressively. Another SSH from Milfie due out soon?

[babymonster]

More than 10% drop in two days. Wow! I thought this would only happen in mining companies

[sb9]

All I can say, someone is upto something....

[sb9]

it is called shorting and making money why doing it........
I wonder what Milfie are thinking.........

Seem to be, already close to 450k volume through....

[sb9]

it is called shorting and making money why doing it........
I wonder what Milfie are thinking.........

Seem to be, already close to 450k volume through....

[couta1]

it is called shorting and making money why doing it........
I wonder what Milfie are thinking.........
I guess that's why many consider shorters one rung up from pond scum aye:eek2:

[biker]

Current price makes the Craig's Placement at 82c last April look pretty sick.

I'm buying at these levels but there is a pretty persistent seller at 46c

[BFG]

I guess that's why many consider shorters one rung up from pond scum aye:eek2:

Couta, what differentiates those who buy for spec reasons vs those who sell for spec reasons? Nothing, except they are on opposite sides of a trade!

I prefer not to subscribe to the usual market psychology of blue = good and red = bad. Instead, psychology should be applied to thinking of the market as a constant source of possibilities on either side of the ledger.

I prefer shorting to be available as it leads to a more balanced and fair price for stocks in the long run. One only has to see the difference of how bubbles behave on the NZX vs ASX to see what I am talking about.

Don't think of them in a negative light; if you believe in the company, the story hasn't changed and the fundamentals are sound, you should see it as a positive to buy more at a cheaper price (or a possibility to profit fron shorting if you dabble in CFDs!).

Yin and yang; negative and positive; BALANCE! :)

[sb9]

Another 1 million volume thro' today so far...

[see weed]

not so much topping up.............I think they call it 'snatching at a falling knife'

Can't help myself. Just put in another buy order. In too deep now to try and get out. Makes it easier when it's a good healthier product and you like the stuff;).

[Balance]

I guess that's why many consider shorters one rung up from pond scum aye:eek2:

The kind of comment that tells more about you than about the subject.


:D :D :D

[MAC]

Just looking at the google a2milkometer

http://www.google.co.nz/trends/explore#q=%22a2%20milk%22&geo=GB&date=8%2F2013%2018m&cmpt=date&tz=

Debate --> awareness, in the UK seems to be generally of the rise. Bit of a kick up since the preliminary human trial results last year possibly helped along by the re-launch marketing.

ATM tell us that they will be monthly cashflow positive (profitable) in the UK prior to FY16 (June 2016).

I just have inkling though that it may be earlier than that, nothing really tangible to justify that, just a bit of hunch from the increased activity on the health & wellness blog sites, and the marketing activity and feedback on the ATM website and facebook etc.

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/199456.pdf

[couta1]

That kind of comment that tells more about you than about the subject.


:D :D :D
Was tongue in cheek so i dont think it tells you anything ,time to lighten up :D:D:D

[klid]

Just looking at the google a2milkometer

http://www.google.co.nz/trends/explore#q=%22a2%20milk%22&geo=GB&date=8%2F2013%2018m&cmpt=date&tz=

Debate --> awareness, in the UK seems to be generally of the rise. Bit of a kick up since the preliminary human trial results last year possibly helped along by the re-launch marketing.

ATM tell us that they will be monthly cashflow positive (profitable) in the UK prior to FY16 (June 2016).

I just have inkling though that it may be earlier than that, nothing really tangible to justify that, just a bit of hunch from the increased activity on the health & wellness blog sites, and the marketing activity and feedback on the ATM website and facebook etc.

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/199456.pdf
Thanks for posting that, very interesting! So too is this trends thing itself!

[biker]

The current weakness is possibly an institution selling down.
If so, often a good time to buy IMO. The insto(s) can be selling for any number of reasons, not necessarily related to the fortunes of the company.
Disc. Bought today at 46c

[MAC]

Been revisiting a few interesting things today actually, here's another;

You know the drop in Synlait farm gate milk prices was from $8.31 last year to probably $4.40 this year (a drop of 47%), and the drop in global whole milk power prices during the ATM HY reporting period was a hefty 37% too.

That must surely be translating now into really quite good input cost savings for ATM under their farm gate contract supply terms. Noting that supermarket retail price points for a2 milk have not altered, aside from within the UK where they have gone up.

Thus, wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a tice tick up in gross margins at HY15 reporting actually

6740

The retail price increase in the UK is per diagram below, shows good confidence in the UK market too IMO.

6741

http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-data/dairy-industry-payout-history

[Under Surveillance]

Been revisiting a few interesting things today actually, here's another;

You know the drop in Synlait farm gate milk prices was from $8.31 last year to probably $4.40 this year (a drop of 88%)

here is something that is interesting, but - better still - accurate: it is a drop of 53%

[MAC]

here is something that is interesting, but - better still - accurate: it is a drop of 53%

Yep, looking at that SP too like it's a roast dinner, just wish I had some free cash.

Sometimes I think short termer's are totally bonkers, but bless them, look what they offer the rest of us :)

[Lease]

Put order of 45c to buy, not successful. wait next Monday.

[Snow Leopard]

here is something that is interesting, but - better still - accurate: it is a drop of 53%

:ohmy: Actually it is a drop of 47%. The $4.40 is 53% of $8.31.

$8.31 is 88.9% higher than $4.40 (to bring in MAC's calculation)


Meanwhile $0.46 is a drop of 52% from the $0.96 close less than a year ago and thus needs to rise by 109% to get back there.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[ziggy415]

:ohmy: Actually it is a drop of 47%. The $4.40 is 53% of $8.31.

$8.31 is 88.9% higher than $4.40 (to bring in MAC's calculation)


Meanwhile $0.46 is a drop of 52% from the $0.96 close less than a year ago and thus needs to rise by 109% to get back there.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
either way you look at it ..a fair % of are staring down a large % loss and a high % of us dont really understand why

[MAC]

We may well quite probably be looking at lower farm gate costs more than compensating for AUD losses also, certainly not something I think the media have clicked onto just yet going by todays commentary.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1502/S00150/market-close-nz-shares-close-at-new-record.htm

If COGS are lower by 15% due to lower farm gate prices, not at all unrealistic I think, it would more than offset probable AUD losses this time around.

Drop in COGS at 15% = HY14 COGS $34.8 x Growth rate 30% x 15% = $6.7M

My anticipated HY15 AUD adjustment as per below (excluding one offs) = $5M

Anyway enough from me, wait and see in a few week’s time I suppose.


From the FY14 report;

“Income and expense items are translated at the average exchange rates for the period, unless exchange rates fluctuated significantly during that period, in which case the exchange rates at the dates of the transactions are used”

It would seem that although the half year to 31 December 2014 ended with NZD/AUD = 0.95, the average exchange rate for the reporting period was around 0.92, around 0.88 for the prior HY period.

Thus a move of around 4.5% for the pending HY15 report, compared with the dramatic 12.5% move we saw at FY14 reporting.

ATM have told us that the first four months of the HY15 reporting period saw Australian sales growth of 38% in AUD terms.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/a2MC-2014-AGM-presentation.pdf

Extrapolating that growth rate and applying the exchange rate movement, provides for estimated HY15 revenues of around NZD$71M (+32%).

Perhaps we may also see a little contribution from introductory fresh milk sales into china and maybe, perhaps we all hope, an uptick in UK growth too.

It’s all coarse I know, but I don’t think the pending HY will really look too shabby actually ?

[Rego55]

I've been following it on Facebook a fair bit and have noticed the announcements that aside from just launching in Sainsburys, ATM is now being stocked in Waitrose and Morrisons. If you check their FB page, there's a lot of activity and I'm just really pleased to see them getting out there and spreading the word. As many Kiwis have lived in the UK too, it's easy just to like some of ATM pages and get the message to any friends you have there.

[babymonster]

That's why the marketing cost went up, but I am sure it's going to make an impact.

[MAC]

6745
__________________

[babymonster]

Lol, it might do better over there

6745
__________________

[mayday]

did this news drive A2 sp down?

http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/cattle/dairy/organic-dairy-operation-will-be-hardhit/2722804.aspx

[Beagle]

did this news drive A2 sp down?

http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/cattle/dairy/organic-dairy-operation-will-be-hardhit/2722804.aspx

Finally an answer of sorts. Forgot to mention after a clear and sustained breech of my 15% mandatory stop loss limit I quite my very small holding recently in the low 50's. I only dipped a toe in the water and lost a toenail so no big deal as far as I'm concerned. I might regret it one day but there are many other compelling and better articulated / understood opportunities out there. Good luck to holders.

[NT001]

did this news drive A2 sp down?

http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/cattle/dairy/organic-dairy-operation-will-be-hardhit/2722804.aspx

Hardly. Very few people would have been aware of that article, and anyway that guy's problems really have nothing whatever to do with A2. They're related to a totally separate issue, the imposition of new rules about RAW milk sales. He's on an utterly different tangent, organics, and apparently doesn't have a contract to supply A2 milk. If he did, he'd probably be doing very nicely.

My personal and unprofessional guess is that the slide in SP has to do with holders (either institutions or traders) quitting or cutting down their holdings in advance of the Australian launch, for some presumably calculated reason. As a longterm holder, albeit a slightly unhappy one at the moment, I see it as showing the market is now operating more freely than it was for a period when it seemed someone was trying to manipulate the daily closing price. It's a good buying opportunity IMO.

[Jasemc]

Agree unless there is some insider information spinning around the drop in price will be a big holder dropping holding and the panickers selling off. If there is a bad report in a few weeks time then you know inside info was behind it. IMHO. Otherwise as usual price will be determined by how well they are making progress in markets.

[GizyGold]

did this news drive A2 sp down?

http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/cattle/dairy/organic-dairy-operation-will-be-hardhit/2722804.aspx

that link refers to raw milk so dont think it would impact A2 at all as they dont do raw milk.

Possibly some guys are trying to drive the price down to accumulate more at lower prices prior to ASX listing. Must be triggering stoplosses and getting weak holders to sell. Would be great to pick the bottom. 40cents??? or is someone wanting to buy the company......strange but something brewing

[MAC]

With the major shareholders in ATM having agreed in 2012 to capitalise the company for growth and expansion at 50c, and the concurrent drop in SP with ASX listing timing, and the amount of dairy sector M&A going on in Australia, who would be at all surprised right now if ATM announced that they had been approached with a takeover offer ?

[iceman]

My thoughts exactly KW. Maybe they´ve realised that ATM has very successfully marketed their product in Australia to health aware consumers and possibly drawn a lot of previous non milk drinkers back to drinking milk. Trying to crush A2MC with silly advertising like they tried last year has probably been a complete failure for them and may even backfire.
So it may well be a case of it "better being inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in" and then try to replicate the Australian success in other countries with an ever increasing product range.

I hope not a takeover though as I would really like to stay in this one for at least 3-5 more years :)


Maybe that's the end game by one of its competitors. Short the F*&^ out of it, then offer to buy it for a song. I mean, seriously, if you were a milk company in Australia and you were losing market share hand over fist, wouldnt you WANT to buy it? I'd call that a no-brainer.

[mayday]

someone traded 359 shares for four times within an hour time, can anyone explain why like that? I wouldn't be able to recover the fees paid to brokerage :confused:

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/markets-and-research/companies/NZX/ATM#trades

[MAC]

I think it’s fair to say Iceman that it absolutely totally backfired as evidenced by ATM having achieved 38% revenue growth in the first four months of HY15. But then, 'if you can’t beat em perhaps then swallow them'.

It may well indeed be a matter of international business maturity that ATM have, by special meeting, allocated a new spot at the board table for a new non-resident director, I wouldn’t doubt the need for that, the business is growing very fast and very successfully.

Equally that spot could make for representation for an incoming large minority or majority shareholder. Coinciding with an ASX listing probably is just coincidental, but it’s not outside realms of possibility that it could also be a matter of putting stepping stones in place.

Perhaps those with more experience could clarify as to what point takeover discussions evolve or graduate to a point whereby an announcement to the market becomes necessary. Clearly at a point an offer is made, but perhaps with shades of grey up until that time.

Typically there must be months of due diligence required leading up to any offer formation.

[babymonster]

That's not unusual. More often in asx,you can see 1 or a few shares traded. I think it's the institutes try to push up or down the price.

[couta1]

Yep a buyout would be bad news for those of us that are holding at higher entry prices, a premium buyout offer would be nowhere near 90c forcing many to realize paper losses prematurely. The best thing for us in that situation would be a share swap offer in the purchasing companies shares.All speculation of course as most talk of company takeovers is just that and rarely comes to anything.

[MAC]

We shouldn't be so sure about that Couta.

If Freedom were going to sell below 97c they would have done so, they had ample opportunity to do so last year.

Milford were buying at circa 90c at one point last year, presumably valuing the company much higher than that, the outlook for the company and valuations have not altered much at all since then.

Analyst ‘price targets’ have remained in the 80 to 86c range for the last six months, I would suggest their valuations are higher than that again.

My valuation is $1.10, they wouldn’t get my shares willingly for under $1.35, and I suspect the major shareholders would have similar figures.

By shorting the stock, if indeed that is what has occurred, a prospective buyer is messing with the sentiment of small retail shareholders so as to make it easier to mop them up, they might still get them at the same price as the big boys, but they are more likely to sell if they have first been spooked.

[BFG]

Yep a buyout would be bad news for those of us that are holding at higher entry prices, a premium buyout offer would be nowhere near 90c forcing many to realize paper losses prematurely. The best thing for us in that situation would be a share swap offer in the purchasing companies shares.All speculation of course as most talk of company takeovers is just that and rarely comes to anything.
Couta, you for one should not value this company so lowly! ATM is worth much, much more than the current SP, especially to a large buyer in the very lucrative dairy sector. If you don't believe that ATM can ever attain a buyout with a huge premium, just ask ex-Fisher & Paykel shareholders about that offer.

Have faith. The NZX can be extremely dumb at times because of its lack of liquidity! :)

someone traded 359 shares for four times within an hour time, can anyone explain why like that? I wouldn't be able to recover the fees paid to brokerage :confused:

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/markets-and-research/companies/NZX/ATM#trades

Mayday, this is an insto or broker breaking up an "iceberg" order into small packets to get the best possible price on market. Presumably, such a larger order has already gone through darkpools and not been taken up, so thd order goes on market to be sold. They can do this cheaply because the entity selling/buying does not pay brokerage for each order (they will have a monthly subscription fee or pay a one off for the entire sell/buy order, no matter how many individual blocks are put through).

If you understand nothing I have just said, visit a lubrary and get reading (or find a broker who will talk your ears off) ;)

[gv1]

Yes, it reminds of FPAppliance days. I sold out of frustration as Sprice started dropping, within days of selling. SP trippled. There was a takeover offer.

[see weed]

Yes, it reminds of FPAppliance days. I sold out of frustration as Sprice started dropping, within days of selling. SP trippled. There was a takeover offer.

Another yes. Looking up old records I made 48 buy transactions of FPA from 39c and up . But had to sell to the big...H... for well over $1. Did not like the way big....H..... conduct their bussiness, it's probably worth equivellant to over $4 a share now selling their fridges into the 30,000 outlets in China, but thats another story. Sorry I got side tracked on FPA. Not going to do the the same with ATM. Holding on tight.

[NT001]

Just noticed today that New World in Molesworth Street (Thorndon, Wellington) has started stocking A2 But they're charging $5.99 a bottle. I'll be having a word with them about that.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This situation is certainly starting to raise my interest. OBV is down by around 10% of issued shares in the last 12 months, yet selling SSH notices are absent (apart from AMP). Obviously the total shares traded in this time are much larger than the 10% of issued shares. One would think we would be seeing some SSH notices.

Shorting is certainly a possibility. Its has been a steady grind downwards in the past 12 months. I am unsure of the SSH requirements when it comes to shorting in NZ - maybe someone can chime in on that? Shorters never really own the shares, so is it required for them? And is it required for whom they have borrowed the shares from?

The intention of shorting to then acquire the company cheaply is an interesting thought. I do wonder about the legalities of doing this however.

It could of course just be that several instos no longer value it at what they did and are selling down.

Let see what happens...

[drcjp]

First time poster.
IMHO, the recent shenanigans re the ATM is an insto shorting to allow new director based in aussie to purchase at cut rate prior to listing.

Price below 50c has not been seen since 2012. Milford and Freedom still have holdings as per 28 Nov 2014. Richard Le Grice is last director to declare changes.

The only other thing I can think of is insto shorting to keep ASX listing low (as it will be based on average price at set period) in order to generate ASX interest. All legal of course but hardly policed that well.....

[winner69]

First time poster.
IMHO, the recent shenanigans re the ATM is an insto shorting to allow new director based in aussie to purchase at cut rate prior to listing.

Price below 50c has not been seen since 2012. Milford and Freedom still have holdings as per 28 Nov 2014. Richard Le Grice is last director to declare changes.

The only other thing I can think of is insto shorting to keep ASX listing low (as it will be based on average price at set period) in order to generate ASX interest. All legal of course but hardly policed that well.....

It seem shareholders are well and truly f#%#?d then

Shenanigans go on in Australia as well

[percy]

First time poster.
IMHO, the recent shenanigans re the ATM is an insto shorting to allow new director based in aussie to purchase at cut rate prior to listing.

Price below 50c has not been seen since 2012. Milford and Freedom still have holdings as per 28 Nov 2014. Richard Le Grice is last director to declare changes.

The only other thing I can think of is insto shorting to keep ASX listing low (as it will be based on average price at set period) in order to generate ASX interest. All legal of course but hardly policed that well.....

Should you be correct they started the shenanigans on the 2nd May 2014,when the sp went below the 200 day EMA., ATM has been in a steady down trend since then.

[winner69]

This situation is certainly starting to raise my interest. OBV is down by around 10% of issued shares in the last 12 months, yet selling SSH notices are absent (apart from AMP). Obviously the total shares traded in this time are much larger than the 10% of issued shares. One would think we would be seeing some SSH notices.

Shorting is certainly a possibility. Its has been a steady grind downwards in the past 12 months. I am unsure of the SSH requirements when it comes to shorting in NZ - maybe someone can chime in on that? Shorters never really own the shares, so is it required for them? And is it required for whom they have borrowed the shares from?

The intention of shorting to then acquire the company cheaply is an interesting thought. I do wonder about the legalities of doing this however.

It could of course just be that several instos no longer value it at what they did and are selling down.

Let see what happens...

Maybe the only true thing said on this thread over the last week or so

Always respected your posts Johnny

[babymonster]

What will happen tomorrow? More declines or bounce back? Always fun to think of the unknown

[see weed]

someone traded 359 shares for four times within an hour time, can anyone explain why like that? I wouldn't be able to recover the fees paid to brokerage :confused:

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/markets-and-research/companies/NZX/ATM#trades

I bought 20,000 at .47c at about 4.30pm. on thur.5/2/15. There were plenty of buyers plus about 209,000 buyers at 46c. and only 29,000 at .47c. to sell. Then at 4.59pm. some broker decides to sell 10 blocks of shares equal to about 209,000 shares at .46c, forcing the price back down. Are the brokers forcing price down for the ASX listing? I was told the brokers were organising the ASX listing. Who knows, time will tell.

[NT001]

Are the brokers forcing price down for the ASX listing?

Interesting question. And the next question is, what's to be gained by doing this? Most shares in ATM are held in NZ and no more are being issued for the Aussie listing. Australians who want to buy ATM shares will have to buy them mainly from NZ holders in the new dual market, most of whom (apart from some short term traders) are not going to be willing to sell at 46c or even 60c. The main Australian holder, Freedom Foods, isn't going to sell at low prices either. I can't think of a rational reason for anyone trying to actually force the share price down.

So I'm inclined tothink that maybe AMP is under some serious time contraint to sell the rest of its holding, and is simply lowering its sell price to achieve this. What puzzles me a bit is why they can't find buyers in Australia at a better price prior to the listing. Any thoughts? If it's part of a plot to lower the price in preparation for a takeover bid, the same issues apply. The vast majority of shares are held by investors who wouldn't dream of selling at current price levels, or even at 60c.

[see weed]

Interesting question. And the next question is, what's to be gained by doing this? Most shares in ATM are held in NZ and no more are being issued for the Aussie listing. Australians who want to buy ATM shares will have to buy them mainly from NZ holders in the new dual market, most of whom (apart from some short term traders) are not going to be willing to sell at 46c or even 60c. The main Australian holder, Freedom Foods, isn't going to sell at low prices either. I can't think of a rational reason for anyone trying to actually force the share price down.

So I'm inclined tothink that maybe AMP is under some serious time contraint to sell the rest of its holding, and is simply lowering its sell price to achieve this. What puzzles me a bit is why they can't find buyers in Australia at a better price prior to the listing. Any thoughts? If it's part of a plot to lower the price in preparation for a takeover bid, the same issues apply. The vast majority of shares are held by investors who wouldn't dream of selling at current price levels, or even at 60c.

I was told at special meeting that they did't need any shares from me or any other share holders, but the brokers were going to supply all the shares for the ASX listing.

[Harrie]

All this talk about dropping the price for listing or take over is just a load of bollocks. To whose advantage is it anyway? Certainly not the sellers. As I have said before a short seller could easily get caught with his pants down given the relative illiquidity of these shares, with the tradjectory this company proports to be heading. A little published good news in the UK showing increased sales would be enough to add 10%+ in a days trading. Too risky.
IMO its just that you have strong sellers for whatever reason (suspect institutional portfolio rebalancing mainly because they look at % exposure rather than potential or putting more emphasis on dividend producing stocks) and weak demand based on a lack of information or just straight boredom with the wallowing SP.
As far as depressing the price for listing, why would anyone want to sell and depress the price on purpose so that the Aussy boys can pick these shares up at a price well below what most institutions bought in at when listed on the main board?
As far as depressing the price for takeover, even if there was some manipulation of the price for takeover purposes who is going to accept an offer under $1.00?
If any institutions or absolute return funds in Aussy were thinking about buying these when they listed in Aussy, you might have thought that they would have done so before the latest round of interest rate cuts in Australia which sunk the Aussy dollar.

Its all bollocks. Its all simply supply and demand nothing more. Pay the money and take your chances.

[MAC]

Any Australian entity wishing to take a large stake would not be concerned about buying on the NZX, it’s a simple transaction to transfer shares between exchanges. And, it's understandable they would want their holding ASX listed for forward re-balancing when or if so required.

There have been no SSH’s for a long time, if there was an insto selling under 5% it would be a bit unusual for someone on this forum not to have posted it up from broker advice or elsewhere.

It is certainly is an interesting circumstance when most FA's are so entirely bullish on the prospects and outlook of the company, no wonder so many are convinced of manipulation.

Still, ATM is a growth company doing very well and they are reporting in 2-3 weeks.

What would happen if the reported, Revenues: $70M (+30%), NPAT: $1.0 to $1.5M (+56% to +133%)

[Beagle]

All this talk about dropping the price for listing or take over is just a load of bollocks. To whose advantage is it anyway? Certainly not the sellers. As I have said before a short seller could easily get caught with his pants down given the relative illiquidity of these shares, with the tradjectory this company proports to be heading. A little published good news in the UK showing increased sales would be enough to add 10%+ in a days trading. Too risky.
IMO its just that you have strong sellers for whatever reason (suspect institutional portfolio rebalancing mainly because they look at % exposure rather than potential or putting more emphasis on dividend producing stocks) and weak demand based on a lack of information or just straight boredom with the wallowing SP.
As far as depressing the price for listing, why would anyone want to sell and depress the price on purpose so that the Aussy boys can pick these shares up at a price well below what most institutions bought in at when listed on the main board?
As far as depressing the price for takeover, even if there was some manipulation of the price for takeover purposes who is going to accept an offer under $1.00?
If any institutions or absolute return funds in Aussy were thinking about buying these when they listed in Aussy, you might have thought that they would have done so before the latest round of interest rate cuts in Australia which sunk the Aussy dollar.

Its all bollocks. Its all simply supply and demand nothing more. Pay the money and take your chances.

I agree 100%. When there's lots of pain people look for reasons, (its only human nature).

[GizyGold]

Someone with lots of shares could be manipulating the price. Possibly dumping their shares over a few months and causing the price to fall which forces the weaker investors to sell. They will simply just wait until a good time (mayby before the ASX listing) to start buying back and the price will rise again. I reckon it is just some method of sneaky accumulation prior to ASX listing so they can have more shares to offer clients. Oh well it looks like it us up today which is good.

[Harrie]

Someone with lots of shares could be manipulating the price. Possibly dumping their shares over a few months and causing the price to fall which forces the weaker investors to sell. They will simply just wait until a good time (mayby before the ASX listing) to start buying back and the price will rise again. I reckon it is just some method of sneaky accumulation prior to ASX listing so they can have more shares to offer clients. Oh well it looks like it us up today which is good.

Ok fine, but its too risky to dump shares on the expectation that you can then buy the same number back again at a lower average price than what you sold for IMO. I wouldn't do it with these shares, they could go up faster than they came down irrespective of any positive or negative news. Look at the period from dec to March last year...nearly a 100% increase in a matter of months...go figure.

[airedale]

I was told at special meeting that they did't need any shares from me or any other share holders, but the brokers were going to supply all the shares for the ASX listing.

OK Sea weed, where are the brokers going to get these shares from? Is it a brokerage firm hoovering up shares from weak sellers?

[Harrie]

I was told at special meeting that they did't need any shares from me or any other share holders, but the brokers were going to supply all the shares for the ASX listing.

OK Sea weed, where are the brokers going to get these shares from? Is it a brokerage firm hoovering up shares from weak sellers?

Correct. Either existing shares are sold or ATM offer more shares as part of the float usually at a small discount to average monthly SP
The idea that a brokerage firm is accumulating existing shares to sell on the ASX listing actually makes a bit of sense. Hang in there until listing, should be interesting

[winner69]

Jeez you guys are grasping at straws re ASX

Doesn't quite work the way you seem to make out

[Harrie]

Jeez you guys are grasping at straws re ASX

Doesn't quite work the way you seem to make out

It may but IMO it's risky. May not even be a broker, even if that is in fact happening.

[Harrie]

FMA invistigating Milford for market manipulation around a year ago. Seems to coincide with the jump in A2 price?

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976502648/milford-confirms-it-is-focus-of-fma-investigation.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FMA+investigates+Milford+Asset+Manage ment

[see weed]

Looking stronger this afternoon. Wonder if that seller will come in at 4.55pm and push it down again?

[see weed]

Looking stronger this afternoon. Wonder if that seller will come in at 4.55pm and push it down again?

Yippy eye ah. Seller on holiday. Up 8%. I hope he is not saying ..I'll be back..:)

[ziggy415]

Yippy eye ah. Seller on holiday. Up 8%. I hope he is not saying ..I'll be back..:)
I see one of milford traders has been accused of market manipulation....i wonder if one was A2

[Harrie]

The manipulation related to a year ago. Read before you post guys

[ziggy415]

The manipulation related to a year ago. Read before you post guys
aaarrrggggg, Harrie are you part of the fun Police....thought we,ve solved the riddle of A2 downward trjectory..gotta admit A2 came back after the announcement.....maybe another trader lol

[babymonster]

Imo, $70m revenues is possible, $1m npat is unlikely. They spent a lot in marketing.
Any Australian entity wishing to take a large stake would not be concerned about buying on the NZX, it’s a simple transaction to transfer shares between exchanges. And, it's understandable they would want their holding ASX listed for forward re-balancing when or if so required.

There have been no SSH’s for a long time, if there was an insto selling under 5% it would be a bit unusual for someone on this forum not to have posted it up from broker advice or elsewhere.

It is certainly is an interesting circumstance when most FA's are so entirely bullish on the prospects and outlook of the company, no wonder so many are convinced of manipulation.

Still, ATM is a growth company doing very well and they are reporting in 2-3 weeks.

What would happen if the reported, Revenues: $70M (+30%), NPAT: $1.0 to $1.5M (+56% to +133%)

[Harrie]

The a2 share price jump started in earnest in Dec and finished in around march april last year.

Its not clear yet whether a2 shares are the subject of the investigation. Milford also own close to 20% of Tourism holdings and restaurant brands.
I think it will be hard to prove manipulation if a2 is the one they are investigating in particular. who's to say that a2 was not considered to be worth 97c march/april last year?

MAC could be called as a key witness to demonstrate his DCF metrics showing that 97c at that time was still under valued, and that did not take into account speculation that growth in other intl markets could replicate Australia. The key question is does Milford still own them? In the absence of a SSH disclosure doc we have to assume so. You could hang your legal cloak on that one. That in relation to brokers recommendation and valuation of around 80c...where's the manipulation?

Nice to see a little tick up today though, but I'm still under water.

[biker]

The a2 share price jump started in earnest in Dec and finished in around march april last year.

Its not clear yet whether a2 shares are the subject of the investigation. Milford also own close to 20% of Tourism holdings and restaurant brands.
I think it will be hard to prove manipulation if a2 is the one they are investigating in particular. who's to say that a2 was not considered to be worth 97c march/april last year?

MAC could be called as a key witness to demonstrate his DCF metrics showing that 97c at that time was still under valued, and that did not take into account speculation that growth in other intl markets could replicate Australia. The key question is does Milford still own them? In the absence of a SSH disclosure doc we have to assume so. You could hang your legal cloak on that one. That in relation to brokers recommendation and valuation of around 80c...where's the manipulation?

Nice to see a little tick up today though, but I'm still under water.

Is it only me or does this post make absolutely no sense. I think Harrie you should be working for the IRD or the Auckland City Council or Telecom or as a bureaucrat.

[Harrie]

You need to keep up biker. Its all about a FMA enquiry into share manipulation by Milford which could have consequences for ATM SP in the short run.

[winner69]

You need to keep up biker. Its all about a FMA enquiry into share manipulation by Milford which could have consequences for ATM SP in the short run.

Harrie - this is sheer speculation on your part and in my view you are unjustified in trying to make any connection whatsoever at this stage

[see weed]

Very quiet this morning . Well might as well start the ball rolling, just bought another 20,000.:).

[biker]

You need to keep up biker. Its all about a FMA enquiry into share manipulation by Milford which could have consequences for ATM SP in the short run.

I'm across what it's all about Harrie so no keeping up required but thanks anyway.
I was referring to the meaningless content of your post.

[Harrie]

Harrie - this is sheer speculation on your part and in my view you are unjustified in trying to make any connection whatsoever at this stage

Correct w69, guilty as charged...pure speculation.
Interesting though to see how this all pans out. IMO I doubt that the FMA will be able to prove anything conclusive if ATM is one of those shares being investigated.

[see weed]

Buyers rising. Once past that 160,000 at 51c , then up up to 60c before reporting day:t_up:.

[see weed]

Buyers rising. Once past that 160,000 at 51c , then up up to 60c before reporting day:t_up:.

Nibble nibble nibble....141,000 keep on nibbling

[Xerof]

Oh, look, this is being manipulated AGAIN. Was looking to buy at 45 now it's up at 51. This just has to stop. I'm calling the FMA

:D

[see weed]

Oh, look, this is being manipulated AGAIN. Was looking to buy at 45 now it's up at 51. This just has to stop. I'm calling the FMA

:D

More buyers than sellers now:).Go calfy go.

[sb9]

All of .51c sells gone now....

[babymonster]

come on ATM, keep going up.. make up my lost in bloody ASX stocks...

[NT001]

All of .51c sells gone now....

How can you be sure of that? If brokers have access to a pile of ATM shares for release in the Aussie listing as suggested by See Weed, they can still push the SP down. Although I don't see why they would want to.

My guess is that ATM will produce a more enticing HY result shortly to get favourable headlines in the financial media, supported by positive updates on exports to China and progress reports on the UK and US. There could also be some new research results and a freshened-up PR campaign. To date the recent slide in SP has occurred in the absence of any real news, certainly nothing to make Aussie investors take advantage of the low prices here and buy up in advance of the listing over there.

[GizyGold]

does anyone know what date they releasing their financials??? looks like it will be a quick ride up to 60cents over next week or so.....

[see weed]

Oh, look, this is being manipulated AGAIN. Was looking to buy at 45 now it's up at 51. This just has to stop. I'm calling the FMA

:D
75000 at 52c, joy killer , why don't they give it a rest and let the sp recover a bit . Still more buyers than sellers;).

[Jasemc]

25 th Feb I believe.

[drcjp]

does anyone know what date they releasing their financials??? looks like it will be a quick ride up to 60cents over next week or so.....
Yep 25th Feb according to website. Don't know why they haven't posted that to NZX yet. They do weird stuff like that.

[biker]

Oh, look, this is being manipulated AGAIN. Was looking to buy at 45 now it's up at 51. This just has to stop. I'm calling the FMA

:D

Well there WERE plenty available at 46!

[babymonster]

While I m happy with the sp recovery today, I m a bit worry it's HY report as au$ dropped quit a bit against NZ$. This must affect their profit. Hopefully uk us and China can make it up.

[MAC]

While I m happy with the sp recovery today, I m a bit worry it's HY report as au$ dropped quit a bit against NZ$. This must affect their profit. Hopefully uk us and China can make it up.

The drop in farm gate milk prices should offset or probably more than offset the move in AUD. I think the market will be quite pleasantly surprised with that actually as not many seemed to have clicked onto it just yet.

China should have moved ahead simply because infant formula shipments have resumed, and we will also see initial fresh milk air freight revenues from China coming through.

Hopefully some pickup in the UK too, a2 retail prices have stepped up and are higher than HY14, usually a good sign that doesn't generally happen without steady or increasing volume.

All that on top of the advice we have already that AUD revenues were up 38% in the first four months.

The market is a dull animal at times, but well, it presents such opportunities for investors to profit from the fickle.

[NT001]

...China should have moved ahead simply because infant formula shipments have resumed, and we will also see initial fresh milk air freight revenues from China coming through.

Yes, I am told more fresh A2 milk is being sold in Shanghai than in NZ.

[iceman]

I would certainly hope so as we sell next to nothing in NZ ! Fresh milk and infant formula into China and progress in the UK is what I will be most interested in when we get the report. A report I am very much looking forward to receiving. Hope it will make my recent top ups prove profitable :mellow:


Yes, I am told more fresh A2 milk is being sold in Shanghai than in NZ.

[Crystal Ball]

Yes, I am told more fresh A2 milk is being sold in Shanghai than in NZ.
Well I shall have a look and report back to you all as I am heading to Shanghai end of next month....would be nice to see it freely available in all the corner stores there....👍

[mayday]

Well I shall have a look and report back to you all as I am heading to Shanghai end of next month....would be nice to see it freely available in all the corner stores there....

Not sure whether you could find A2 fresh milk in any grocey store in Shanghai (perhaps try downtown area). An ordinary 1L bottle costs about NZD12.00 online while we pay only < $5 in NZ. Give my highest praise for the importers who are confident to sell a bottle of milk at such price level in China.

Nevertheless, based on Chinese population (1.4b) so let's presume even 0.3% of them (the richests) drink A2, that's 4.2m human-being. No chance NZ market could beat that, could Aussie (by 10% of their population)?

http://www.yaxp.com/product/physical/2391.htm

[MAC]

Apologies for such a random thought, it may even be that lower oil/fuel prices will be starting to benefit a2mc also to a certain extent, given they are a major distributor of processed milk products in Australia, whether directly or by contract, then there is potentially lower forward ocean going freight and airfreight to China also for that budding segment.

Freight costs at FY14 were $7.9M


The drop in farm gate milk prices should offset or probably more than offset the move in AUD. I think the market will be quite pleasantly surprised with that actually as not many seemed to have clicked onto it just yet.

China should have moved ahead simply because infant formula shipments have resumed, and we will also see initial fresh milk air freight revenues from China coming through.

Hopefully some pickup in the UK too, a2 retail prices have stepped up and are higher than HY14, usually a good sign that doesn't generally happen without steady or increasing volume.

All that on top of the advice we have already that AUD revenues were up 38% in the first four months.

The market is a dull animal at times, but well, it presents such opportunities for investors to profit from the fickle.

[Jasemc]

Possible but more likely freight firms will not cut their price to much as they try to return to normal margins. Herd Craig's the other day saying they think ATM will be hit hard on Aussie dollar so if results prove this wrong and uk shows unusual growth then $3 here we come.

[winner69]

Possible but more likely freight firms will not cut their price to much as they try to return to normal margins. Herd Craig's the other day saying they think ATM will be hit hard on Aussie dollar so if results prove this wrong and uk shows unusual growth then $3 here we come.

Didn't you mean $4

[Jasemc]

Why stop at $4 let's say 55c

[see weed]

Hi latest 100 s/holders

Security

IssuerName




ATM.NZ

The a2 Milk Company Limited









Rank


Cur: 04-Aug-2014

Prev: 21-Jul-2014

Difference




Cur

Prv

Shareholders

Shares

Held(%)

Shares

Held(%)

Shares

Simple(%)

Relative(%)




1

1

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED

309370381

48.8685

309779306

48.9331

-408925

-0.0646

-0.132




2

2

FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED

116936129

18.4714

116936129

18.4714







3

3

MOUNTAIN ROAD INVESTMENTS LIMITED

57558701

9.092

57558701

9.092







4

4

ULRIKE MCLACHLAN

7135163

1.1271

7135163

1.1271







5

5

JBWERE (NZ) NOMINEES LIMITED

5865962

0.9266

5865962

0.9266







6

6

DAVID MAIR

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898







7

7

GREGORY HINTON & ROSSLYN HINTON

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898







8

8

SUPERLIFE TRUSTEE NOMINEES LIMITED

4571641

0.7221

4571641

0.7221







9

9

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

4128940

0.6522

4065190

0.6421

63750

0.0101

1.5682




10

10

TP TRUSTEE BENDEMEER LIMITED

4000000

0.6318

4000000

0.6318







11

11

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

3301494

0.5215

3621494

0.5721

-320000

-0.0505

-8.8361




12

12

GREGORY HINTON

3000000

0.4739

3000000

0.4739







13

13

HOLEM PTY LIMITED

2750000

0.4344

2750000

0.4344







14

14

NEW ZEALAND DEPOSITORY NOMINEE LIMITED

2535518

0.4005

2392136

0.3779

143382

0.0226

5.9939




15

15

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

2306245

0.3643

2227083

0.3518

79162

0.0125

3.5545




16

16

PETER HINTON

2193064

0.3464

2193064

0.3464







17

17

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

2098949

0.3316

2098949

0.3316







18

18

RESOLUTION INVESTMENTS LIMITED

1710000

0.2701

1710000

0.2701







19

19

LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED

1692061

0.2673

1659561

0.2621

32500

0.0051

1.9583




20

21

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1628052

0.2572

1480616

0.2339

147436

0.0233

9.9577




21

20

MARINT LIMITED

1500000

0.2369

1500000

0.2369







22

23

CIRCADA LIMITED

1400000

0.2211

1400000

0.2211







23

24

PHABEN HOLDINGS LIMITED

1200000

0.1896

1200000

0.1896







24

25

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1166800

0.1843

1166800

0.1843







25

26

ROTORUATRUST PERPETUAL CAPITAL FUND LIMITED

1000000

0.158

1000000

0.158







26

27

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

968519

0.153

954519

0.1508

14000

0.0022

1.4667




27

29

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

900599

0.1423

894599

0.1413

6000

0.0009

0.6707




28

28

ROSSLYN HINTON

900000

0.1422

900000

0.1422







29

30

MARTYN REESBY

800000

0.1264

800000

0.1264







30

31

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

790950

0.1249

790950

0.1249







31

32

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

723900

0.1143

721900

0.114

2000

0.0003

0.277




32

33

ARTHUR YOUNG & PETER WILSON

700000

0.1106

700000

0.1106







33

35

RICHARD PATERSON & LEE PATERSON & PETER GOWING

644972

0.1019

644972

0.1019







34

36

RICHARD PATERSON & LEE PATERSON & PETER GOWING

644972

0.1019

644972

0.1019







35

38

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

639894

0.1011

629434

0.0994

10460

0.0017

1.6618




36

37

JAMES MCLAUGHLIN

635595

0.1004

635595

0.1004







37

34

MICHAEL HARE

600000

0.0948

650000

0.1027

-50000

-0.0079

-7.6923




38

39

JBWERE (NZ) NOMINEES LIMITED

535000

0.0845

535000

0.0845







39

40

WARREN LONG

525000

0.0829

525000

0.0829







40

46

ASB NOMINEES LIMITED

512500

0.081

497500

0.0786

15000

0.0024

3.0151




41

41

HYLTON LEGRICE & ANGELA LINDSAY

500000

0.079

500000

0.079







42

42

LUCY HINTON

500000

0.079

500000

0.079







43

43

EMILY HINTON

500000

0.079

500000

0.079







44

44

MM MORTGAGE SOLUTIONS LIMITED

500000

0.079

500000

0.079







45

45

TROUBADOUR HOLDINGS LIMITED

500000

0.079

500000

0.079







46

48

ADAM RYALL & JUDITH RYALL & CHRISTOPHER PATRICK MOORE

450000

0.0711

450000

0.0711







47

49

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

416465

0.0658

416465

0.0658







48

50

NICHOLAS LAUTZ

395703

0.0625

395703

0.0625







49

51

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

362547

0.0573

354547

0.056

8000

0.0013

2.2564




50

52

CHRISTOPHER JOHNSTON & KOKILA PATEL

353855

0.0559

353855

0.0559







51

53

BRYAN HUTCHINS

350000

0.0553

350000

0.0553







52

54

PENELOPE HUTCHINS

350000

0.0553

350000

0.0553







53

55

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

345511

0.0546

345511

0.0546







54

22

FIRST NZ CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED

340204

0.0537

1400324

0.2212

-1060120

-0.1675

-75.7053




55

56

PHILLIP HARRIS & PRUNELLA HARRIS

320000

0.0505

320000

0.0505







56

57

JOHN ELLIOT & TONI ELLIOT

315000

0.0498

315000

0.0498







57

58

HARROGATE TRUSTEE LIMITED

304000

0.048

304000

0.048







58

59

MICHAEL LOOKMAN & 187 BRIDGE TRUSTEES 53 LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474







59


JOHN LEAHY & SHARYN LEAHY & SARAH LEAHY

300000

0.0474









60

60

STEPHEN PRYOR & CITYLAW TRUSTEES LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474







61

61

LINDA SIMMONS & FARRY AND CO. TRUSTEES LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474







62

62

ROBERT STEWART & LEONIE STEWART & IMPACT LEGAL TRUSTEE LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474







63

63

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

271750

0.0429

271750

0.0429







64

64

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

264390

0.0418

264390

0.0418







65

65

ANTHONY COOMBE

255125

0.0403

255125

0.0403







66

66

ALLAN SOLLY

250800

0.0396

250800

0.0396







67

67

THE NEW ZEALAND ANGLICAN CHURCH PENSION BOARD INCORPORATED

250000

0.0395

250000

0.0395







68

68

CONSTELLATION CAPITAL LIMITED

250000

0.0395

250000

0.0395







69

69

4 EYES LIMITED

249150

0.0394

249150

0.0394







70

70

PLUTEUS (NO 164) PTY LIMITED

243480

0.0385

243480

0.0385







71

71

NEVILLE SAWYER & JANICE SAWYER

240000

0.0379

240000

0.0379







72

72

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

240000

0.0379

240000

0.0379







73

73

JAGUAR NOMINEES LIMITED

240000

0.0379

240000

0.0379







74

74

ROSALINDE TRINNEAR

238020

0.0376

238020

0.0376







75

75

GREGORY KEEN & PATRICIA KEEN

232156

0.0367

232156

0.0367







76

76

DAVID STEVENSON & NICHOLAS GRANT & DONALD MOCHAN

225455

0.0356

230000

0.0363

-4545

-0.0007

-1.9761




77

77

RICHARD TURNER

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355







78

78

ROSS MEAR & DEIDRE MEAR

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355







79

79

EUAN BIDWILL & ANNA BIDWILL & JAMES WALLACE

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355







80

80

EUAN BIDWILL & ANNA BIDWILL & JAMES WALLACE

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355







81

81

BARBARA KEDGLEY

221000

0.0349

221000

0.0349







82

82

CRAIG PERCY

220258

0.0348

220258

0.0348







83


CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

220000

0.0348









84

83

STEVEN LAWRIE

201000

0.0318

201000

0.0318







85

84

MICHAEL GUTHRIE & SUSAN LECKIE & ALBERT ALLOO

200340

0.0316

200340

0.0316







86

85

JOHN EDWARDS

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







87

86

WAYNE BOOCOCK

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







88

88

PUBLIC TRUST

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







89

89

LOUISE WRIGHT

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







90

90

HENRY DODS

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







91

91

SOMSMITH NOMINEES LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







92

92

NZ METHODIST TRUST ASSOCIATION

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







93

93

NICOLAI SCHUPBACH

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







94

94

PARNELL HOLDINGS LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







95

95

PETER BRADFIELD

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







96

96

PETER DE CLIFFORD & GWENDOLINE DE CLIFFORD

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







97

97

SALLY CLATWORTHY

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







98

98

AMALGAMATED DAIRIES LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316







99

99

PHILLIP LINDBERG

195000

0.0308

195000

0.0308







100

100

TITMOTU HOLDINGS LIMITED

188550

0.0298

188550

0.0298






















Top 100 total

576270760

91.0284

577072660

91.1551

-1321900

-0.2088

-0.2291







Any changes Josh?

[Harrie]

5 o'clock boys back in town again?...no big volume though.

[NT001]

There've been quite a few changes in the lower ranks of the ATM Top 100 list since last August, but not much among the main players. I have an update but it's hard to format for posting. I'll try if Josh can't.

Problem is, these tables don't tell us much of the real story. One doesn't know what's going on within some of the big custodial deposit accounts, especially NZ Central Securities Depository (administered by the Reserve Bank), which holds almost half ATM's total shares on behalf of unnamed investors. These must include Milford and almost certainly AMP, but you can't tell for sure from these lists. Despite NZCSD holding well over 300m shares, the net change in its total holding in the latest fortnight was only 240,000 shares (gain), although obviously there must have been far more activity by its depositors than that.

Some other custodial accounts have been closed and/or consolidated since last August, but even where their holdings have changed significantly, you don't know on whose behalf the shares were held, and whether they've been traded. I don't know if there's any way of getting a breakdown of the individual holdings held in these custodial accounts. They could include quite substantial holdings we don't even know about. There's no mention in these lists of the NZ Super Guardians who hold over 40m shares, or ACC which has 24m, or Equity Casa Grande (US) which has 30m - at least they did have a little while ago. The lists don't show changes in their holdings.

[Joshuatree]

Will check out a top holder notice tomorrow

[see weed]

Thanks NTOO1 & Joshuatree. That leaves us little guys about 83.7 million shares to play with.

[NT001]

Thanks NTOO1 & Joshuatree. That leaves us little guys about 83.7 million shares to play with.

That's interesting, now that you mention it SW. The latest Top 100 list that I have, dated 31 January, shows that the so-called Top 100 now only control 570,160,702 shares, which is about 6 million less than was the case six months ago. So 6m shares seem to have gone from the big buggers to the little guys, who now have 89.9m to play with. Unless someone in the Top 100 is somehow under-declaring their holdings by 6 million. Interesting thought.

But in fact the totals given on these lists don't quite gel arithmetically. The latest list says the 570m shares controlled by the so-called Top 100 make up 90% of the company's shares, but they don't, they only make up 86.3% of the 660m shares shown as being on issue. Something wrong somewhere, I think. I hope Josh can put up the full list, so others can perhaps find an explanation.

Actually SW, I would have thought you would be lurking somewhere in the Top 100 yourself after all your recent topping up. The cutoff point is just 200,000 shares, which is peanuts at today's prices, or $100,000 to be precise.

[iceman]

I hope readers don't mind me posting this here even though there is no link to ATM. But for those of us that have read and found interesting Keith Woodford's book Devil in the Milk, this is an interesting development http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/66129062/Protein-may-be-key-to-cure-for-melanoma

[MAC]

ATM recently made the move from 2l to 1l bottles in the UK per the re-launch plan.

Morrison’s are selling the new 1l bottles for £1.00, that’s yet a further relative increase in price point beyond the 2l bottles they were previously selling for £1.90.

Tesco’s are selling the 1l bottles yet higher again at £1.39, Waitrose also at £1.39

Onward, forward and upward in the UK I suspect, if ever higher price points are anything to go by.

http://www.mysupermarket.co.uk/morrisons-price-comparison/Fresh_Milk/A2_Whole_Milk_1L.html

http://www.tesco.com/groceries/product/details/?id=287259122

http://www.waitrose.com/shop/ProductView-10317-10001-254664-a2+semi+skimmed+milk

[Joshuatree]

Many thanks to Craigs
. Unfort can't find my original to put this next to but there is one back a few posts.

Security
IssuerName





ATM.NZ

The a2 Milk Company Limited










Rank



Cur: 31-Jan-2015

Prev: 16-Jan-2015

Difference





Cur

Prv

Shareholders

Shares

Held(%)

Shares

Held(%)

Shares

Simple(%)

Relative(%)





1

1

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED

306212305

48.3697

305971406

48.3316

240899

0.0381

0.0787





2

2

FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED

117699229

18.5919

117699229

18.5919

0

0

0





3

3

MOUNTAIN ROAD INVESTMENTS LIMITED

57558701

9.092

57558701

9.092

0

0

0





4

4

ULRIKE MCLACHLAN

7135163

1.1271

7135163

1.1271

0

0

0





5

5

DAVID MAIR

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898

0

0

0





6

6

GREGORY HINTON & ROSSLYN HINTON

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898

0

0

0





7

7

SUPERLIFE TRUSTEE NOMINEES LIMITED

4571641

0.7221

4571641

0.7221

0

0

0





8

8

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

4183490

0.6608

4140500

0.654

42990

0.0068

1.0383





9

9

JBWERE (NZ) NOMINEES LIMITED

4035962

0.6375

4035962

0.6375

0

0

0





10

10

TP TRUSTEE BENDEMEER LIMITED

4000000

0.6318

4000000

0.6318

0

0

0





11

11

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

3442062

0.5437

3453962

0.5456

-11900

-0.0019

-0.3445





12

12

NEW ZEALAND DEPOSITORY NOMINEE LIMITED

2501374

0.3951

2512741

0.3969

-11367

-0.0018

-0.4524





13

13

PETER HINTON

2193064

0.3464

2193064

0.3464

0

0

0





14

14

GREGORY HINTON

2000000

0.3159

2000000

0.3159

0

0

0





15

15

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1883213

0.2975

1945463

0.3073

-62250

-0.0098

-3.1998





16

16

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

1870701

0.2955

1881701

0.2972

-11000

-0.0017

-0.5846





17

17

RESOLUTION INVESTMENTS LIMITED

1790000

0.2828

1790000

0.2828

0

0

0





18

18

LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED

1746661

0.2759

1746661

0.2759

0

0

0





19

19

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1585271

0.2504

1642271

0.2594

-57000

-0.009

-3.4708





20

21

ASB NOMINEES LIMITED

1541411

0.2435

1400000

0.2211

141411

0.0223

10.1008





21

20

CIRCADA LIMITED

1400000

0.2211

1400000

0.2211

0

0

0





22

22

PHABEN HOLDINGS LIMITED

1200000

0.1896

1200000

0.1896

0

0

0





23

23

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

1068832

0.1688

1071549

0.1693

-2717

-0.0004

-0.2536





24

24

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1011800

0.1598

1026800

0.1622

-15000

-0.0024

-1.4608





25

25

ROTORUATRUST PERPETUAL CAPITAL FUND LIMITED

1000000

0.158

1000000

0.158

0

0

0





26

26

GEORGE PEMBERTON

914500

0.1445

914300

0.1444

200

0

0.0219





27

28

ROSSLYN HINTON

900000

0.1422

900000

0.1422

0

0

0





28

27

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

889019

0.1404

909019

0.1436

-20000

-0.0032

-2.2002





29

29

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

880950

0.1392

880950

0.1392

0

0

0





30

30

MARTYN REESBY

800000

0.1264

800000

0.1264

0

0

0





31

31

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

704204

0.1112

712204

0.1125

-8000

-0.0013

-1.1233





32

32

ARTHUR YOUNG & PETER WILSON

700000

0.1106

700000

0.1106

0

0

0





33

34

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

649500

0.1026

649500

0.1026

0

0

0





34

35

RICHARD PATERSON & LEE PATERSON & PETER GOWING

644972

0.1019

644972

0.1019

0

0

0





35

36

RICHARD PATERSON & LEE PATERSON & PETER GOWING

644972

0.1019

644972

0.1019

0

0

0





36

37

JAMES MCLAUGHLIN

635595

0.1004

635595

0.1004

0

0

0





37

38

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

615240

0.0972

605260

0.0956

9980

0.0016

1.6489





38

33

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

579900

0.0916

671400

0.1061

-91500

-0.0145

-13.6282





39

39

MICHAEL HARE

550000

0.0869

550000

0.0869

0

0

0





40

40

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

538972

0.0851

544972

0.0861

-6000

-0.0009

-1.101





41

41

WARREN LONG

525000

0.0829

525000

0.0829

0

0

0





42

42

LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED

507750

0.0802

507750

0.0802

0

0

0





43

43

MICHAEL LOOKMAN & 187 BRIDGE TRUSTEES 53 LIMITED

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





44

44

LUCY HINTON

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





45

45

EMILY HINTON

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





46

46

MM MORTGAGE SOLUTIONS LIMITED

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





47

47

HYLTON LEGRICE & ANGELA LINDSAY

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





48

48

TROUBADOUR HOLDINGS LIMITED

500000

0.079

500000

0.079

0

0

0





49

49

ASB NOMINEES LIMITED

480000

0.0758

480000

0.0758

0

0

0





50

50

ADAM RYALL & JUDITH RYALL & CHRISTOPHER PATRICK MOORE

450000

0.0711

450000

0.0711

0

0

0





51

51

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

416465

0.0658

416465

0.0658

0

0

0





52

52

PHILLIP HARRIS & PRUNELLA HARRIS

400000

0.0632

400000

0.0632

0

0

0





53

53

NICHOLAS LAUTZ

395703

0.0625

395703

0.0625

0

0

0





54

58

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

361975

0.0572

309575

0.0489

52400

0.0083

16.9264





55

54

CHRISTOPHER JOHNSTON & KOKILA PATEL

353855

0.0559

353855

0.0559

0

0

0





56

55

BRYAN HUTCHINS

350000

0.0553

350000

0.0553

0

0

0





57

56

PENELOPE HUTCHINS

350000

0.0553

350000

0.0553

0

0

0





58

57

JOHN ELLIOT & TONI ELLIOT

315000

0.0498

315000

0.0498

0

0

0





59

59

HARROGATE TRUSTEE LIMITED

304000

0.048

304000

0.048

0

0

0





60

60

RICHARD TURNER

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474

0

0

0





61

61

JOHN LEAHY & SHARYN LEAHY & SARAH LEAHY

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474

0

0

0





62

62

STEPHEN PRYOR & CITYLAW TRUSTEES LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474

0

0

0





63

63

LINDA SIMMONS & FARRY AND CO. TRUSTEES LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474

0

0

0





64

64

ROBERT STEWART & LEONIE STEWART & IMPACT LEGAL TRUSTEE LIMITED

300000

0.0474

300000

0.0474

0

0

0





65

65

4 EYES LIMITED

273350

0.0432

273350

0.0432

0

0

0





66

66

ASB NOMINEES LIMITED

268500

0.0424

268500

0.0424

0

0

0





67

67

CHRISTOPHER AIKEN & WARWICK AIKEN

265000

0.0419

265000

0.0419

0

0

0





68

68

MEGAN PEMBERTON

256600

0.0405

256600

0.0405

0

0

0





69

69

ANTHONY COOMBE

255125

0.0403

255125

0.0403

0

0

0





70

70

ALLAN SOLLY

250800

0.0396

250800

0.0396

0

0

0





71

71

THE NEW ZEALAND ANGLICAN CHURCH PENSION BOARD INCORPORATED

250000

0.0395

250000

0.0395

0

0

0





72

72

CONSTELLATION CAPITAL LIMITED

250000

0.0395

250000

0.0395

0

0

0





73

73

LANE CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED

250000

0.0395

250000

0.0395

0

0

0





74

74

PLUTEUS (NO 164) PTY LIMITED

243480

0.0385

243480

0.0385

0

0

0





75

75

JOHN FAULKS

240100

0.0379

240100

0.0379

0

0

0





76

76

JAGUAR NOMINEES LIMITED

240000

0.0379

240000

0.0379

0

0

0





77

77

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

240000

0.0379

240000

0.0379

0

0

0





78

95

JOHN EDWARDS

240000

0.0379

200000

0.0316

40000

0.0063

20





79

79

LU MCDONNELL & TANIA HODGES & TORO WAAKA <NGATI PAHAUWERA DEVELOPMENT>

235600

0.0372

235600

0.0372

0

0

0





80

80

GREGORY KEEN & PATRICIA KEEN

232156

0.0367

232156

0.0367

0

0

0





81

81

COLIN EADE

232000

0.0366

232000

0.0366

0

0

0





82

82

CAROLINE BALL & CHRISTOPHER BUSH

230656

0.0364

230656

0.0364

0

0

0





83

83

EUAN BIDWILL & ANNA BIDWILL & JAMES WALLACE

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355

0

0

0





84

84

ROSS MEAR & DEIDRE MEAR

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355

0

0

0





85

85

EUAN BIDWILL & ANNA BIDWILL & JAMES WALLACE

225000

0.0355

225000

0.0355

0

0

0





86

86

BARBARA KEDGLEY

221000

0.0349

221000

0.0349

0

0

0





87

87

CRAIG PERCY

220258

0.0348

220258

0.0348

0

0

0





88

88

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

202285

0.032

202285

0.032

0

0

0





89

89

MICHAEL GUTHRIE & SUSAN LECKIE & ALBERT ALLOO

200340

0.0316

200340

0.0316

0

0

0





90

90

AMALGAMATED DAIRIES LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





91

0

LOUISE WRIGHT

200000

0.0316

0

0

0

0

0





92

91

PUBLIC TRUST

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





93

92

PETER DE CLIFFORD & GWENDOLINE DE CLIFFORD

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





94

93

PETER BRADFIELD

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





95

94

NICOLAI SCHUPBACH

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





96

96

BRIAN GREEN PROPERTIES (1971) LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





97

97

SOMSMITH NOMINEES LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





98

98

PARNELL HOLDINGS LIMITED

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





99

99

SALLY CLATWORTHY

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0





100

100

NZ METHODIST TRUST ASSOCIATION

200000

0.0316

200000

0.0316

0

0

0







0







0















0

Top 100 total

570160702

90.0633

569729556

89.9951

231146

0.0365

0.0406







Top Share Holders: ATM.NZ: Top Share Holders (iress:CMD=TSHD&CODE=ATM&EXCH=NZ&USER=rstevens&GROUP=&COMPANY=ABNCRAIG&WEBID=A1FC5FCF2C2BCC0BFFE6E94625E581D51D560000A386 BF4D2C88E44081FA000066060000)

[sb9]

De javu...

[NT001]

ATM recently made the move from 2l to 1l bottles in the UK per the re-launch plan. Morrison’s are selling the new 1l bottles for £1.00, Tesco’s are selling the 1l bottles yet higher again at £1.39, Waitrose also at £1.39. Onward, forward and upward in the UK I suspect

It shows you can charge premium prices much more easily once you take A2 milk off the "ordinary" milk shelves where it just gets lost and causes puzzlement among the customers, and market it on the specialty milk shelves alongside almond, soy and lactose-free. That's the strategy outlined by CEO Wotherspoon in his interview late last year. Of course if Morrisons can make a profit selling at a quid a litre, the others are creaming it at £1.39 without benefiting us poor shareholders very much. But at least their pricing suggests there's a good market. I like the explanatory blurb about A2 that Tescos offer.

Presumably the same sales strategy will be used in the US. No point in just going head-to head with standard milk in a wealthy and health-conscious market like California. Not to mention China, where a certain percentage of consumers won't balk at price for quality, and the trick will be to differentiate the product.

[drcjp]

OK, maybe someone can explain this me because I am too simple (or naive) to work it out.

For one year I have screenshotted and saved ATM trading data from the NZX site. I have noticed the real-time volumes sometimes don't add up and can be out by hundreds of thousands on a day, as they dissappear the next day.

And then there is the common 5'OClock price drop on zero volume, eg.
7042

How is this possible? Can brokers withhold the volume traded? If so, why?

So many questions...

[Snow Leopard]

Why your broker does what they does I have no idea.

But I find that stocknessmonster.com are fairly reliable:

so for ATM today you could take a picture of this (http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=ATM&E=NZSE)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

It shows you can charge premium prices much more easily once you take A2 milk off the "ordinary" milk shelves where it just gets lost and causes puzzlement among the customers, and market it on the specialty milk shelves alongside almond, soy and lactose-free. That's the strategy outlined by CEO Wotherspoon in his interview late last year. Of course if Morrisons can make a profit selling at a quid a litre, the others are creaming it at £1.39 without benefiting us poor shareholders very much. But at least their pricing suggests there's a good market. I like the explanatory blurb about A2 that Tescos offer.

Presumably the same sales strategy will be used in the US. No point in just going head-to head with standard milk in a wealthy and health-conscious market like California. Not to mention China, where a certain percentage of consumers won't balk at price for quality, and the trick will be to differentiate the product.

Yep, especially when one considers that the 1l bottles at €1.39 are within the upper range of the specialty brands on offer, and, just one year ago a 2l bottle of a2 milk, under the Wiseman JV, was retailing for only €1.49

A strategy that worked well in Australia, some will say that all markets are different, and fair enough, some too are more similar than others and there is all the potential within the UK and the US for a similar level of uptake.

The ATM goal for the UK was to achieve just a humble 1.8% market share by FY16, Wiseman held them back for six months perhaps a little longer, but that really doesn’t seem to be an overly ambitious target to ultimately achieve to me.

23 million folk in Australia, 64 million folk in the UK, 319 million folk in the US, potential a2 customers all.

[drcjp]

Why your broker does what they does I have no idea.

But I find that stocknessmonster.com are fairly reliable:

so for ATM today you could take a picture of this (http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=ATM&E=NZSE)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Cheers Paper Tiger
That site is much better and explains quite a bit to a noob like me
Much appreciated

[see weed]

Someone has an order to buy 20,000 at .485c. Did'nt know you could buy in half cent lots on ATM shares:ohmy:.

[winner69]

Someone has an order to buy 20,000 at .485c. Did'nt know you could buy in half cent lots on ATM shares:ohmy:.

Wonder if Derek Handley buying?

[see weed]

China running out of milk powder.Could be good for a2 milk powder?

[nextbigthing]

One week until the interim report is due (released Wed 25th Feb apparently). What are your predictions for sales?

Australia we've been told is 38% up for the first four months. China we know had the regulatory issues. The Aussie exchange rate won't be helping but the lower cost of milk will. The UK? Who knows, very early days for the relaunch. And NZ? Traditionally very little, but perhaps their will be a spike in sales where seeweed lives :)

$70-75M?

[babymonster]

I think you are too optimistic
One week until the interim report is due (released Wed 25th Feb apparently). What are your predictions for sales?

Australia we've been told is 38% up for the first four months. China we know had the regulatory issues. The Aussie exchange rate won't be helping but the lower cost of milk will. The UK? Who knows, very early days for the relaunch. And NZ? Traditionally very little, but perhaps their will be a spike in sales where seeweed lives :)

$70-75M?

[MAC]

Looks about right,


Three weeks away from HY reporting, anyone wish to have a go at estimating;

First four months in Australia looked fine at AUD38%, exchange rate appreciation not significant this time at 4.5%, infant formula now selling again in China, preliminary revenues from fresh milk airfreight into China, preliminary revenues from UHT into China, perhaps a tick up from the re-launch in the UK, let's see.

Looking for prospective news in regard to possible fresh milk into Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta, an update of the US entry, and the timing of the pending human trials.

Revenues: $70M (+30%)

NPAT sacrificed close to zero for growth: $1.0 to $1.5M (+56% to +133%)

[MAC]

It’s hard to imagine that a2MC would not announce the launch of a2 milk into the US prior to marketing at the Anaheim natural products expo in early march.

http://www.expowest.com/ew15/public/eBooth.aspx?BoothID=1173722&Task=PressReleases&SSID=3260

Given the timing of the HY next week, perhaps we may get that announcement concurrently.

[babymonster]

i hope you are right MAC. The sp does suggest any good news. Usually some insiders will start to buy in if the HY is good.

[see weed]

i hope you are right MAC. The sp does suggest any good news. Usually some insiders will start to buy in if the HY is good.

Up 2c at the moment on light volume. Maybe insiders, who knows? Every time I go shopping I tell about 5 or 6 people. Enlightened 3 people today at Pak n Save and was'nt even shopping, and chased one guy down after seeing him put 8 two litre bottles into his cart, but told him he can buy a2 at Countdown and shares in the company if he wants to.:D All good, and looking foward to positive report next week ...I hope.

[babymonster]

see weed, you are such a good salesperson. Atm should hire you!

[blobbles]

see weed, you are such a good salesperson. Atm should hire you!

Hasn't he hired himself by buying shares in the company?

[iceman]

I am assuming we'll get the HY report on 26 Feb likee last year. Does anyone know an exact date ?

[MAC]

I am assuming we'll get the HY report on 26 Feb likee last year. Does anyone know an exact date ?

Hi Iceman, Wednesday 25th February, according to the website, should be a good one barring any catastrophes.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/investor-centre/shareholder-information/

[iceman]

Thanks MAC. Only looked up the NZX and couldn't find it there ! I am looking forward to it as it will hopefully update us on progress, particularly UK & China but maybe also some progress in the US.


Hi Iceman, Wednesday 25th February, according to the website, should be a good one barring any catastrophes.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/investor-centre/shareholder-information/

[babymonster]

Fingers crossed

[MAC]

Would be a nice spot for anyone interested, looks like the a2 team is forming up in Boulder Colorado, the US launch can’t be far now.

Up, up and away !

“We’ve changed the face of the liquid milk category in Australia. We’re changing the way we drink milk and bringing people back to dairy, one glass at a time. Now, The a2 Milk Company is coming to the US market.”

“Fresh from our success down under and, as part of a growing global footprint, we’re working with local farmers to satisfy the desire of millions of US milk lovers for real, natural milk that’s delicious and easy to digest because it contains only a2 protein from 100% a2 cows.”

National supply Chain Manager: Boulder, Colorado

https://careers-creativealignments.icims.com/jobs/1187/national-supply-chain-manager-for-the-a2-milk-company/job

Brand Manager: Boulder, Colorado

https://careers-creativealignments.icims.com/jobs/1191/a2-brand-manager/job

General Office Assistant: Boulder, Colorado

https://careers-creativealignments.icims.com/jobs/1253/a2-executive-assistant/job

[Leftfield]

About 12 months ago I was suffering from mild colitis….my doctor recommended a break from dairy products. 6 Months later, big improvement and mild colitis gone. 3 months ago I experimented by introducing A2 milk into my diet for the first time ever and experienced none of the adverse symptoms I was getting with 'normal' milk.
My experience is not uncommon, my Doctor said as part of the aging process (i'm 65) our stomachs begin to struggle digesting foods that in the past caused no issues. Clearly my stomach started having issues with 'normal' milk, but my sensitive stomach can now handle A2 with no issues.
I'm impressed, and as a result have become a recent holder of A2 shares. I figure they can only gain from their current low levels.

[winner69]

Fingers crossed

No matter what the actual numbers say mate there will be plenty of positives to keep the punters happy.

Just like post ASM and the good news they mentioned we will see another burst to 70 cents but this time I reckon the rise will be sustained and we WILL see that $1 this time around.

All primed and ready to go

[see weed]

Sunday on 0ne at 7pm. Camel milk....is it a2?

[NT001]

Sunday on 0ne at 7pm. Camel milk....is it a2?

Haven't seen the story on One, but only cows have the A1 variant. All other animals, and humans of course, have pure A2 naturally.

[see weed]

Have noticed 2 pages of the a2 forum has disappeared.:confused:

[see weed]

About 12 months ago I was suffering from mild colitis….my doctor recommended a break from dairy products. 6 Months later, big improvement and mild colitis gone. 3 months ago I experimented by introducing A2 milk into my diet for the first time ever and experienced none of the adverse symptoms I was getting with 'normal' milk.
My experience is not uncommon, my Doctor said as part of the aging process (i'm 65) our stomachs begin to struggle digesting foods that in the past caused no issues. Clearly my stomach started having issues with 'normal' milk, but my sensitive stomach can now handle A2 with no issues.
I'm impressed, and as a result have become a recent holder of A2 shares. I figure they can only gain from their current low levels.

Good on you L F, Welcome aboard. Same here, been drinking it for 7 months now and will never go back to a1. Will also be buying up more shares in the next couple days. A2 milk is much cheaper than camel milk. TV one tonight said camel milk was $25 a litre over there in Perth.

[babymonster]

Wow, $25/l, a mouthful is a few bucks.. We shall start now and can make an ipo in a couple of years.

[airedale]

Millie Hinkle was the expert who was speaking in favour of camel milk, and also there was a guy from Perth who described similar problems as Left Field. All sorted now after trying camel's milk. a2 should get in touch with Millie Hinkle and tell her about the benefits thereof. Not least the price.

[iceman]

You are right snapiti and it is a real shame how this deleting stuff works ! It is also a real shame how many posters have to get personal and abusive !

Hey but roll on the 25th and the HY announcement :t_up:
I have been excitedly waiting for updates on China & UK and still do. But after a bit more research and thinking, maybe A2 Platinum sales into Australia may be the pleasant surprise coming our way, just ahead of the ASX listing !


I think you will find some members have deleted or have had their accounts deleted due to the peb thread which will mean all thier posting on all threads will go.

[Harrie]

Millie Hinkle was the expert who was speaking in favour of camel milk, and also there was a guy from Perth who described similar problems as Left Field. All sorted now after trying camel's milk. a2 should get in touch with Millie Hinkle and tell her about the benefits thereof. Not least the price.

It seems that there is more nutritional value and less lactose in camel milk than exists in a2 cows milk.
We know that camel milk has only the a2 protein so the question that was not answered was, would the guy from Perth have suffered the same problems as he experienced with regular cows milk by drinking a2 milk.
You may have thought that Millie Hinkle would have suggested he try that at least.

Would not be surprised to see the Australians shutting down the supply of raw camel milk, the same way as they have shut down the supply of raw milk elsewhere in Australia.

[babymonster]

raw cow milk is not safe.. not sure about camel milk tho..

[BlackPeter]

raw cow milk is not safe.. not sure about camel milk tho..

True - Raw milk from dodgy farmers and milk processors ignoring hygienic requirements is not safe. Unfortunately there are farmers and milk processors in New Zealand who are not always at the top of what's required to keep raw milk save. Just have a look at some farms ... if the cows have the runs (as I have often seen on NZ farms), if all available space for the cows is covered with dung and the cows have clots of dung at their utter (again - indication for overpopulation and not enough focus on cleaning up the land and the animals), than yes, I would not recommend to drink raw milk from these farmers. Obviously - if the processors contaminate the milk (not unheard of for Fonterra), than this does not help either. Yes, milk produced and processed this way must be treated. But honestly - who would want to drink this anyway?

However - if you know where the raw milk is coming from and know that the producer take milk only from healthy and clean animals with enough space and if you know they know their hygiene 101, than there is nothing unsafe about drinking raw milk.

I did drink raw milk all my life (as a child purchased from farmers I or my family knew and later in life taken from our own cows) and our children grew up with this diet into healthy adults. Never ever had we (or anybody else consuming our milk) any problems from drinking raw milk.

Only difference - it tastes much better than the processed stuff ... and funnily many people allergic against commercially processed milk can drink ours. Yes, raw milk does not keep for ages, but it is not unhealthy if it gets off - it just changes its taste (which some people like, and others don't). Anyway, if it goes off you still can make delicious cheese with it.

[NT001]

....It seems that there is more nutritional value and less lactose in camel milk than exists in a2 cows milk. We know that camel milk has only the a2 protein so the question that was not answered was, would the guy from Perth have suffered the same problems as he experienced with regular cows milk by drinking a2 milk.....


You're right Harrie, that question should have been probed, and the guy might have saved himself enough money to buy a luxury tour to the Middle East and ride a camel to the Pyramids.. Actually the camels-milk farmer near Perth has been in the news for some time for providing raw unpasteurised camel milk (not legal but he has ways to get around that), and a TV reporter who did some research (unusual) found that in the Middle East it is widely used for the treatment of autism and asthma. One man she spoke to suffers from Common Variable Immune Deficiency (CVID) - a cancer-related disease which often has a very poor prognosis - and swears by it being a staple in his diet. She also said the science behind the milk shows it can also help treat diabetes, cholesterol, Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Crohn’s disease, hepatitis and leaky gut. Some of these are mentioned in Prof Woodford's book.

Actually sheep's milk is another available option to cow's milk, which I like very much and has a higher nutritional value than cow's milk but is expensive and not easy to find in NZ shops. Sheep's milk is drunk very widely in many countries, and a Southland farming enterprise is getting into it in a big way but unfortunately it's mostly for export.

[babymonster]

In the past few days, it always closes a bit lower than the sp during most of that day. Errr

[NT001]

Not wishing to flog a dead camel as it were, but the former CEO of Australia's first commercial camel dairy was reported last year by the Sydney Morning Herald as saying more than 300,000 camels are estimated to be roaming in the desert, putting Australia in a unique position to capitalise on the market for camel's milk. It didn't say what he was charging for it, but said "We had people coming in and buying the milk for diabetes, autism, lactose intolerance and kid's allergies."

[see weed]

Not wishing to flog a dead camel as it were, but the former CEO of Australia's first commercial camel dairy was reported last year by the Sydney Morning Herald as saying more than 300,000 camels are estimated to be roaming in the desert, putting Australia in a unique position to capitalise on the market for camel's milk. It didn't say what he was charging for it, but said "We had people coming in and buying the milk for diabetes, autism, lactose intolerance and kid's allergies."

The guy on tv1 on sunday handed over two $50 notes for 4litres of camel milk for him and his son, and there was no change.

[Harrie]

Question for you NT.

In your opinion would you consider that camel, sheep, buffalo milk etc would be more effective/potent in ameliorating diabetes, autism, cholesterol, Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Crohn’s disease, hepatitis and leaky gut etc, than a2 milk?

[see weed]

Is it a good time to top up this afternoon to avoid the made rush tomorrow morning following all the good and positive announcements? Or is it a good time to sell this afternoon to avoid the made rush out the back door, due to bad negative announcements? It will all come out in the wash tomorrow. Good luck to all holders.