ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited [Archive] - Page 13

Harrie

11-03-2015, 01:07 PM

"Most investors wouldn't even know if those criteria were being met. Whereas just a couple of good news stories in the Aussie media about sales in the UK, US, China or Australia or a new scientific finding could be enough to lift the SP. And once the Aussie listing goes into effect, I would have thought the market there might develop a self-generating dynamic that's not reliant on such specific analytical details but driven more by broader investor/broker perceptions and sentiment. Not to mention perhaps some news from the company itself."

Thanks for your reply NT but we are talking about what will make the SP rise.
There will not be any good news stories unless there is good news, and that will come about if some if not all the criteria I listed come about. The more that come about the higher the SP will go.
The fact that most investors wouldn't know about whether the criteria was being met is irrelevant really, they will if and when it happens

MAC

11-03-2015, 01:45 PM

Harrie, short term the market will swing about all over the place, in this case it’s due predominantly to the AMP overhang and their new portfolio policy requiring them to just sell at any price.

Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.

Do remember Ben Graham;

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”

Analyst price targets are very much to the up side, valuations will be higher than those again. As I understand Craig’s recently increased their price target to 92c. First NZ have recently offered a spot valuation of up to $1.24.

AMP will be working in the background with their broker right now, the Australian funds and insto’s will be running their valuation models right now, and the overhang should dissipate concurrently with the listing.

It is an IPO in any other name with AMP very probably about to release up to 20M shares onto the ASX.

Watch what happens to a very tightly held, presently very undervalued, and low liquidity stock when such an overhang ceases, and there are suddenly not one but two markets to facilitate a move.

Not to mention enthusiastic Australian retail investors buying shares in their favourite product.

Patience is a virtue, just relax, sit back, pour yourself a nice glass of a2, and watch.

ratkin

11-03-2015, 01:52 PM

Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.

Not an easy stock to value on fundamentals

MAC

11-03-2015, 02:12 PM

Yep, agree with that Ratkin, even Craig's told us such also last year when they first initiated coverage at 90c.

Growth companies are harder to value than cyclical's generally though are they not. It is difficult too with ATM having so many new products in so many new markets.

Management though have offered a long term numerical goal ($230M FY16 revenues) to focus the investment and marketing machine that ATM has become.

They tell us they are on track, and despite an adjustment for long run exchange rates, three years into the four year strategic plan their revenue growth curve is on track too.

When I value that FY16 goal as being achievable, I've no problem establishing a relatively conservative valuation of FY15 $1.10.

Although at the end of the day it is just another growth company, sensitivity analysis is important too for that reason alone.

bull....

11-03-2015, 02:46 PM

the market is saying it does not agree with these broker or analyst valuations - anyway at this rate we may be hitting under 50c by eom

NT001

11-03-2015, 05:52 PM

...There will not be any good news stories unless there is good news, and that will come about if some if not all the criteria I listed come about. The more that come about the higher the SP will go.

The point I was making Harrie was that there can be things other than the specific six items on your list that could give the SP a boost. Such as improved sales/profits in Australia. Or a favourable recommendation by Aussie brokers/analysts, which could be based on prospects rather than actual achievements.

I agree that "good news" is important, but not that it has to involve the six specific items on your list. I note you have now softened that assertion a bit.

Not looking for a big dispute here, but I think that once the dual listing takes place, the SP will be dictated largely in the Australian market, and will be determined not so much by precise statistical measures of current company performance as by broader consumer and investor perceptions of the company's future. And investors won't wait a year or two to see whether the six targets on your list are achieved. They'll respond to shorter term news and commentary. [/QUOTE]

tomblu

11-03-2015, 09:03 PM

Can anybody tell me the a date for ASX listing ?

MAC

11-03-2015, 09:31 PM

Can anybody tell me the a date for ASX listing ?

I don't think a2mc or Goldman Sachs have yet advised an exact date, perhaps they are awaiting a 'good to go' signal from AMP. It should appear here when they are all ready to go.

http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm

JohnnyTheHorse

11-03-2015, 10:14 PM

I don't think a2mc or Goldman Sachs have yet advised an exact date, perhaps they are awaiting a 'good to go' signal from AMP. It should appear here when they are all ready to go.

http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm

It is not up to them. They are awaiting approval from the ASX first. Once approved, the market will be informed and trading will likely commence a few days later. The ticker code for the ASX is A2M. Expect an update within the next week.

tomblu

11-03-2015, 10:36 PM

I notice the ASX has a list for A2M, just no data yet.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/A2M

Harrie

11-03-2015, 11:53 PM

The point I was making Harrie was that there can be things other than the specific six items on your list that could give the SP a boost. Such as improved sales/profits in Australia. Or a favourable recommendation by Aussie brokers/analysts, which could be based on prospects rather than actual achievements.

I agree that "good news" is important, but not that it has to involve the six specific items on your list. I note you have now softened that assertion a bit.

Not looking for a big dispute here, but I think that once the dual listing takes place, the SP will be dictated largely in the Australian market, and will be determined not so much by precise statistical measures of current company performance as by broader consumer and investor perceptions of the company's future. And investors won't wait a year or two to see whether the six targets on your list are achieved. They'll respond to shorter term news and commentary. [/QUOTE]

We are probably talking about the same thing here NT.
A2mc probably have more prospects than you can point a finger at. The market has discounted that already into the price. Its the price that after weighing up the risk of the prospects being fulfilled, or not, that the market is prepared to pay. The longer the prospects take to come to fruition the longer the SP will drift. The trigger to make the SP go higher is some of the criteria I outlined above coming to fruition, because as the probability of success becomes more apparent it starts to whittle away the probability of performance objectives not being met. Improving perceptions = less risk = improving SP.

Talking about perceptions, why would Chinese bureaucrats at the border not want to ban imports of formula into China from NZ even if there was only an infinitesimal chance of 1080 mixed in? why risk your job. What do they know about NZ food safety mechanisms anyhow? If in doubt stay out? I think this one could really blow up. International trust in NZ food safety is diminishing big time. One of the big growing markets for a2mc is exporting baby formula to China. If this goes tits up as a result of the 1080 scare its one of the drivers of growth which is under threat = more uncertainty = declining SP. I hope I am wrong!

bull....

12-03-2015, 05:39 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67256852/china-gives-baby-formula-wide-berth-in-wake-of-extortion-threat

sales slumping so they say

MAC

12-03-2015, 09:52 AM

Yawn, … no impact to ATM much at all really,

HY15 China segment revenues: $1.0M
HY15 Total ATM revenues: $74.8

Not all China segment revenues are NZ produced and exported infant formula, it also includes Australian fresh milk exports and Australian UHT exports to China.

Assuming $750k revenues is for NZ infant formula export, then any potential exposure from a prospective 1080 nutbar represents only around 1% of all company revenues.

Practically very little risk of disruption to ATM’s overall business.

NT001

12-03-2015, 10:19 AM

One of the big growing markets for a2mc is exporting baby formula to China. If this goes tits up as a result of the 1080 scare its one of the drivers of growth which is under threat = more uncertainty = declining SP.

On that one, Harrie, I think we should take some reassurance from the way a2MC is now turning itself into a multi-product international company rather than just a NZ one or just an infant formula one. It's exporting a lot of product into China now from Australia, and that will expand. Even the company that processes infant formula for it here (Synlait) is very much a Chinese company now. It's contemplating UHT sales into the European continent from its UK subsidiary. It could even export out of the US.

The point about A2 Milk is that it's not specifically a NZ thing. As its UK CEO Scott Wotherspoon has said, the plan is to move on into other countries once it is well established in the UK, China and the US. While a2MC could get caught up tangentially in issues like the current 1080 scare, and its SP will inevitably fluctuate, it should be regarded as a longterm investment with bigger horizons.

blobbles

12-03-2015, 11:20 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67256852/china-gives-baby-formula-wide-berth-in-wake-of-extortion-threat

sales slumping so they say

Its interesting that you would put this on this thread rather than say the FSF thread bull...., any motivation why? ATM won't have a lot of exposure to this, but fonterror...

Harrie

12-03-2015, 12:53 PM

Anyone know what % of a2 milk powder is manufactured in NZ and what % manufactured in Australia?
Mac believes that $750k worth in NZ, therefore on the basis of $1m revenue from this market, we have to assume $250k from Australia? seems a lot smaller than I had assumed.
Having said that I would have expected this market to grow exponentially so its the perception of growth opportunities being compromised by the 1080 scare which may depress the price somewhat even though the milk powder market is currently not a great contributor to total revenue.

MAC

12-03-2015, 01:58 PM

Harrie, I think you may find that the forward prospects and size of the Australian fresh milk export to China is a significant market, very probably much greater than that of infant formula potential. Characteristically there are lot’s more adult consumers than infants at the end of the day.

It’s likely even IMO that the fresh milk and UHT market exports alone to China may well make the China segment profitable at FY15. If ATM pick up some growth from infant formula exports also, well great, some icing on the cake.

Fresh milk “could be pushing toward three million litres for 2015, according to its Asian general manager, Phil Wohlsen” and “expects demand to at least double each year.”

http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/ma...2/2713426.aspx (http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/magazine/industry-news/general/demands-fresh-for-a2/2713426.aspx)

iceman

12-03-2015, 08:46 PM

That is my concern with it too Harrie. Not the effect this threat/scare may have on this year but whether it will have ongoing negative effect on what I have been expecting to be one of the pillars of growth for ATM in the very near future.

Having said that I would have expected this market to grow exponentially so its the perception of growth opportunities being compromised by the 1080 scare which may depress the price somewhat even though the milk powder market is currently not a great contributor to total revenue.

NT001

12-03-2015, 10:38 PM

MAC, aren't we rather guessing in the dark here? You're picking an overall net margin of $10m on fresh milk sales. But do we have any idea of transport costs for liquid milk to China, which must be substantial but are not included in the COGS or gross margin. The COGS for the Chinese market would probably be close to that in Australia but it won't include transport, Jingdong's margins and general overheads such as the cost of a2MC staffing an office in China, all of which could reduce the net margin. One assumes all these costs are factored into the wholesale price to Jingdong to maintain a margin, but I don't see how we can deduce that margin from information available at this point, especially as the internet market is said to be fairly competitive.

And is the Jingdong deal the only sales operation for A2 milk? I thought there was also a substantial fresh milk sales operation through retail outlets, especially in Shanghai. Do we know anything about the margins/quantities for this? I know you've been keeping fairly close tabs on all this. I'm not saying your estimate of $10m is too high - it may be too low. But getting established in a new market is never cheap, especially in the first year.

MAC

12-03-2015, 10:57 PM

Follow this logic trail NT;

It's a fair abstraction, is it not, that a2mc would not export fresh milk at lower margins than they could sell equivalent milk for in Australia on the domestic market.

I've very conservatively applied domestic margins, because it represents a logical probable minimum.

In reality the actual export margins incorporating transport costs and jingdong mark-ups are most likely to be higher again than domestic margins given the opportunity nature of the venture.

If a2mc hit their target of 3,000,000 litres of 2015 sales they will receive $10M in revenues net of transport costs and jingdong mark-ups, as that minimum.

Doubling each year going forward as advised.

Happy to go through the numbers offline NT, too much detail for this thread.

In regard to establishment costs though, there are really very few beyond export logistics.

The Chinese retailers take delivery and distribute as I understand. The business is already effectively established within the existing New Grange processing facility in New South Wales.

It's not like the UK or the US where a2mc have to establish and grow a totally new geographic business over a period of two to three years.

For the fresh milk sales to China, a2mc arrange logistics, aircraft by aircraft, and ensure quality control up to the point of receipt when collected by the Chinese retailers at the other end.

NT001

12-03-2015, 11:57 PM

MAC

13-03-2015, 12:15 AM

Thanks for your reasoned explanation MAC. I'm just hoping your "logical probable" starting assumptions are correct. If the market is competitive and the name of the game is to get established there fast at all costs, I was wondering if a2MC might in fact be accepting lower net margins than in Australia. Especially as the home market share seems to have stabilised, not rising as dramatically as it was.

There's no sign of the Australian market stabilising off for a2mc, per market share trend below, a2mc have told us they could go as high as 12 to 15% in market share too.

They have suggested though that more farms will be required to satisfy the Chinese market. Again, not something they would do unless the Chinese margins were pretty damn good !

“There could be a longer term need to bring on more farms to meet demand and transport arrangements are likely to evolve with the market, too.”

http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/ma...2/2713426.aspx (http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/magazine/industry-news/general/demands-fresh-for-a2/2713426.aspx)

Up, up and away.

7194

Snoopy

13-03-2015, 12:37 AM

Harrie, short term the market will swing about all over the place, in this case it’s due predominantly to the AMP overhang and their new portfolio policy requiring them to just sell at any price.

Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.

Do remember Ben Graham;

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”

I wouldn't quote Ben Graham on this one Mac. Graham liked to buy shares for less than their cash value.

As at December 31st 2014 shareholder equity is just $9.9m (from 1H2015 presentation dated 25-02-2015). Based on the 660.067m shares now on issue this is a net asset backing of.

$9.9m/660.067m = 1.5cps

So Graham would only be interested if the ATM share price fell to 1c. In Graham terms, ATM the most expensive share on the NZX, overvalued by a factor of 30 at least. You had better hope that the Ben Graham 'weighing machine' doesn't start working in this case.

SNOOPY

babymonster

13-03-2015, 07:42 PM

Looks like the 5pm seller is gone.

NT001

13-03-2015, 10:19 PM

Maybe just making an early getaway for the weekend.

blobbles

13-03-2015, 10:45 PM

Same thing last week. I thinks maybe he is off for a round of golf on Friday arvo.

Lucky he values the company slightly higher than SNOOPY's 1.5c. Or else we may see a rather large price movement!

babymonster

14-03-2015, 07:22 AM

I like snoopy

dodgy

14-03-2015, 08:50 AM

Hi all,
The biggest catch for this company and in my mind survival or failure is penetration of US market without being tasked over the inferred product benefits. The US is extremely litigious about any health related claims and benefits. Proceed with caution.
- dodgy

Discl: Current holding 25k

NT001

14-03-2015, 12:01 PM

The biggest catch for this company and in my mind survival or failure is penetration of US market without being tasked over the inferred product benefits. The US is extremely litigious about any health related claims and benefits. Proceed with caution.

Yes, Dodgy, the company is very well aware of such issues, not only in the US but elsewhere. For instance, it continues to suffer from constant reminders by its detractors that ten years ago an independent company that marketed A2 Milk in Queensland was successfully prosecuted for making health claims for the product. It doesn't even challenge publicly the falsehoods published by the NZ Food Safety Authority and the European Food Safety Authority. Its policy is to keep its head down and avoid confrontation and litigation. And the company's structure and marketing strategy have been changed so that it keeps much tighter control over what claims are made on its behalf.

It also avoids the direct confrontation with the mainstream milk industry that proved so counter-productive in its early days. It largely leaves it to outside scientific and medical experts, consumers and the media to publicise the health benefits of A2 and the health risks of A1, especially when it comes to medical issues such as autism, schizophrenia etc. In most markets it's just offering A2 Milk as an alternative dairy product appealing to consumers who have problems with "ordinary" milk and are prepared to pay more. It's seeking only a niche in the market for now, not threatening the domination exercised by standard milk.

Meanwhile the scientific proof that A1 carries medical risks to some consumers is steadily building, and any litigation that might be brought against a2MC could in fact be an opportunity for such risks to be brought out publicly in the form of evidence by scientists working in this area, whose work is at present little publicised. That would be damaging to mainstream dairy, causing consumers to turn away from milk. As in NZ, where Fonterra steers well clear of engaging in debate with a2MC, the global dairy industry is aware of the dangers.

Of course things will evolve gradually as A2 becomes bigger and more popular. For the moment, a2MC is tailoring its strategy to the present situation where supplies of A2 Milk are still limited anyhow. But as demand grows, largely through public awareness, supplies will increase to meet it and it will build up market share at the expense of mainstream dairy. At the same time, the science will also grow. It took many decades to "prove" that smoking causes lung cancer although logic, statistics and medical research pointed to this. It will take decades or longer for scientists to prove through clinical research involving human subjects that A1 is a causal factor - although not the only one - in a range of major diseases such as ischaemic heart disease and type 1 diabetes.

The causal link with autism and schizophrenia is already becoming clear as the basic facts are now pretty well established. Contrary to what the European Food Safety Authority declared, the opioid by-product BCM7 generated by A1 in the digestive process does get into the bloodstream of some consumers and does get into the brain where it can cause havoc, and doctors have found that switching patients to A2 milk has remarkable benefits. But you won't find a2MC promoting A2 Milk as the answer to autism. In Australia, consumers and doctors found this out for themselves and made it public. In the US, where science is king, at least one university medical research team is well advanced on proving the cause-and-effect link.

dodgy

14-03-2015, 12:21 PM

Yes, Dodgy, the company is very well aware of such issues, not only in the US but elsewhere. For instance, it continues to suffer from constant reminders by its detractors that ten years ago an independent company that marketed A2 Milk in Queensland was successfully prosecuted for making health claims for the product. It doesn't even challenge publicly the falsehoods published by the NZ Food Safety Authority and the European Food Safety Authority. Its policy is to keep its head down and avoid confrontation and litigation. And the company's structure and marketing strategy have been changed so that it keeps much tighter control over what claims are made on its behalf.

It also avoids the direct confrontation with the mainstream milk industry that proved so counter-productive in its early days. It largely leaves it to outside scientific and medical experts, consumers and the media to publicise the health benefits of A2 and the health risks of A1, especially when it comes to medical issues such as autism, schizophrenia etc. In most markets it's just offering A2 Milk as an alternative dairy product appealing to consumers who have problems with "ordinary" milk and are prepared to pay more. It's seeking only a niche in the market for now, not threatening the domination exercised by standard milk.

Meanwhile the scientific proof that A1 carries medical risks to some consumers is steadily building, and any litigation that might be brought against a2MC could in fact be an opportunity for such risks to be brought out publicly in the form of evidence by scientists working in this area, whose work is at present little publicised. That would be damaging to mainstream dairy, causing consumers to turn away from milk. As in NZ, where Fonterra steers well clear of engaging in debate with a2MC, the global dairy industry is aware of the dangers.

Of course things will evolve gradually as A2 becomes bigger and more popular. For the moment, a2MC is tailoring its strategy to the present situation where supplies of A2 Milk are still limited anyhow. But as demand grows, largely through public awareness, supplies will increase to meet it and it will build up market share at the expense of mainstream dairy. At the same time, the science will also grow. It took many decades to "prove" that smoking causes lung cancer although logic, statistics and medical research pointed to this. It will take decades or longer for scientists to prove through clinical research involving human subjects that A1 is a causal factor - although not the only one - in a range of major diseases such as ischaemic heart disease and type 1 diabetes.

The causal link with autism and schizophrenia is already becoming clear as the basic facts are now pretty well established. Contrary to what the European Food Safety Authority declared, the opioid by-product BCM7 generated by A1 in the digestive process does get into the bloodstream of some consumers and does get into the brain where it can cause havoc, and doctors have found that switching patients to A2 milk has remarkable benefits. But you won't find a2MC promoting A2 Milk as the answer to autism. In Australia, consumers and doctors found this out for themselves and made it public. In the US, where science is king, at least one university medical research team is well advanced on proving the cause-and-effect link.
Hi NT001
You make very valid points and despite my acceptance or otherwise of the benefits, I can see merit in exploiting a niche market opportunity. Based on your argument, that the company doesn't health promote, all should be well. But deep pockets will be needed if any counter substantive claims surface in the States - even to defend against spurious intent.
-d

MAC

15-03-2015, 04:30 PM

Lights, Camara, Action a2 milk !

http://richmedia.decisionnewsmedia.com/content/download/478744/9752753/file/Bonnie+Johnson+-+Edit_002.mp4

http://mobile.foodnavigator-usa.com/Ingredients/Dairy-based-ingredients/a2-Milk-outlines-its-US-game-plan-in-Expo-West-video#.VQT-xdKUf9M

babymonster

16-03-2015, 09:25 AM

new ann..

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/261865

iceman

16-03-2015, 10:48 AM

There seems to be some info missing on the UK operation on page 30. Obviously a bit of an error and somewhat annoying !

new ann..

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/261865

NT001

16-03-2015, 12:19 PM

There seems to be some info missing on the UK operation on page 30. Obviously a bit of an error and somewhat annoying !

Yes, although the announcement covering this document makes clear that it "largely consolidates other information that has previously been made available to the market; it does not contain new financial projections or other price sensitive information."

iceman

16-03-2015, 12:35 PM

Agree, but I would have liked to see what they were obviously intending to put there as they started a paragraph that then stops mid sentence !

All looks good though. Managed to top up a few on opening this morning !

Yes, although the announcement covering this document makes clear that it "largely consolidates other information that has previously been made available to the market; it does not contain new financial projections or other price sensitive information."

sb9

16-03-2015, 02:43 PM

Bit of exuberance in sp every time there is an some announcement and drifts lower slowly after that. See where it goes this time.

babymonster

16-03-2015, 07:05 PM

At least the 5pm seller was not here today

sommelier

16-03-2015, 08:08 PM

I'm not sure you can call a 1c increase to 55c 'exuberance'. I think 53-54 is pretty well established now and will be buying more when it dips below. SML also is looking like great value, though I got burnt last year buying too close to the top, so will wait for very definite trends on that one.

mayday

16-03-2015, 11:20 PM

It was interesting to read comments left by reviewers

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/someone-please-explain-this-a2-milk-thing/story-fnkgdftz-1227265031916?pg=1#comments

blobbles

16-03-2015, 11:30 PM

It was interesting to read comments left by reviewers

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/someone-please-explain-this-a2-milk-thing/story-fnkgdftz-1227265031916?pg=1#comments

Indeed, confirms exactly what A2 is saying and what they are pushing - A2 milk may work for people with milk intolerance, but it won't work for those that are lactose intolerant. They make it clear but some people still get it wrong... good to hear peoples doctors are even recommending it and it is helping with both eczema and behavioural problems.

Harrie

17-03-2015, 12:26 AM

Indeed, confirms exactly what A2 is saying and what they are pushing - A2 milk may work for people with milk intolerance, but it won't work for those that are lactose intolerant. They make it clear but some people still get it wrong... good to hear peoples doctors are even recommending it and it is helping with both eczema and behavioural problems.

Yes I agree that a2mc make it very clear that a2 does not solve lactose intolerance. From my readings it appears that a significant number of those who believe they are lactose intolerant are in fact not lactose intolerant at all because the adverse reaction comes from the a1 beta casein, not the lactose within both the a1 and a2 milk.
I think some human studies around this could be extremely useful. The marketing angle could be something along the lines of "lactose intolerant or a1 beta casein intolerant? Try pure a2 milk"...or something along those lines.
Thanks for the link mayday. Very interesting reading. More debate, more exposure...all good. Interesting that people want scientific evidence. I would of thought the large body of positive anecdotal evidence would be proof enough.

NT001

17-03-2015, 10:45 AM

Yes I agree that a2mc make it very clear that a2 does not solve lactose intolerance. From my readings it appears that a significant number of those who believe they are lactose intolerant are in fact not lactose intolerant at all because the adverse reaction comes from the a1 beta casein, not the lactose within both the a1 and a2 milk.
I think some human studies around this could be extremely useful. The marketing angle could be something along the lines of "lactose intolerant or a1 beta casein intolerant? Try pure a2 milk"...or something along those lines.
Thanks for the link mayday. Very interesting reading. More debate, more exposure...all good. Interesting that people want scientific evidence. I would of thought the large body of positive anecdotal evidence would be proof enough.

I'm not sure that a2MC could make this distinction any clearer than it already does.

http://a2milk.co.uk/a1-protein-intolerance-lactose-intolerance/

So I don't think more science on this point would be a prudent use of expenditure. It would only confirm what we already know.

Part of the problem is simply that a lot of people just don't really read stuff carefully, or are distrustful of science anyway. Another part is that A2 milk's detractors falsely accuse the company of claiming A2 milk is the answer to lactose intolerance, just to muddy the waters. And then of course you get the so-called experts who say A2 is just a marketing ploy.

The company has been hammering the distinction between lactose intolerance and A1 intolerance very clearly, for example with its UK publicity campaign featuring Danni Minogue who said she thought she was lactose intolerant until she tried A2 milk. That campaign picked up a lot of newspaper publicity in Britain as well.

That kind of publicity, that doesn't try to explain the scientific complexities and just deals with the issue in anecdotal terms that everyone can relate to, has proved effective. But you'll never convince everyone.

NT001

17-03-2015, 10:54 AM

Here's another nice publicity splash for A2 milk on a US website that has over 2m viewers interested in food safety.

And it quotes an a2MC executive making the distinction clearly between lactose intolerance and A1 intolerance.

http://www.foodsafetynews.com/

Harrie

17-03-2015, 11:03 AM

Fair enough NT, The link you posted makes the point very clearly, Thanks. I guess its just a matter of exposure and different ways of getting that info out there which hopefully is part of the a2mc marketing strategy.

blobbles

17-03-2015, 11:06 AM

They sure are getting some good exposure over in the US, hopefully that will translate into decent sales and a nationwide deal for a big supermarket... that will be at least a year away though IMO.

MAC

17-03-2015, 11:17 AM

a2mc opened up 20 farms for conversion in the UK when they entered, it would be interesting to know how many will make the switch in the US.

I would agree though, the Australian and US west coast markets are probably the most similar in terms of demographic target market, lifestyle, and available disposable income for general health and wellness.

And, given that the hard yards in proving the FMCG business model have been well honed in Australia now, and the market similarities, and the ability to finance for a faster expansion, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a2 take off faster in the US than it did in the early days in Australia.

That's not to say it will go straight to 9.3%, but the company is positioned for a damn good kick start.

Would like to see them selling in Californian Costco stores soon too like the do in Australia now.

sb9

17-03-2015, 11:18 AM

They sure are getting some good exposure over in the US, hopefully that will translate into decent sales and a nationwide deal for a big supermarket... that will be at least a year away though IMO.

Totally agree, they surely on the right track in US. Things seem to be fall in place for this market, with strong USD that can only mean more upside for earnings..

Kirk

17-03-2015, 01:21 PM

http://www.fool.com.au/2015/03/17/could-a2-milk-company-ltd-be-a-tasty-investment-opportunity/

MAC

17-03-2015, 01:30 PM

http://www.fool.com.au/2015/03/17/could-a2-milk-company-ltd-be-a-tasty-investment-opportunity/

Interesting reference to the Ballamy's IPO, that seemed to go ok;

http://www.fool.com.au/company/?ticker=ASX-BAL

Harrie

17-03-2015, 02:37 PM

Baby formula and natural/organic foods seem all the rage with investors at the moment so maybe that enthusiasm will spill over into A2M when it gets listed on the ASX. There certainly appears to be a buzz around its listing in Aussie. Looking at Bellamy which does not operate in the UK or USA, I see that their SP has moved upward by ~70% in the last 3 months and freedom have gone 300% over ~3yrs albeit settling down to the same SP over the last year or so. IMO all this is likely to auger well for its listing on the ASX, its becoming a well recognised brand. Most serious investors and institutions will know and will have read about it. Brokers will also be informing their clients about it.

blobbles

17-03-2015, 02:52 PM

MAC

17-03-2015, 04:52 PM

The comparison to Bellamy's is interesting. Probably very similar yes...

ASX.BAL = 95m shares @2.89 = ~275m MCAP. This is based on 141% current growth rate and $116m revenue (they have a small profit but like ATM are investing for growth). Current revenue multiple = 2.37

ATM = 660m shares @55c = ~363m MCAP. 38% current growth rate on $154m revenue. Current revenue multiple = 2.36

Interesting how the two align so closely in terms of revenue multiple, me thinks that's not just luck. Arguably ATM has the greater market oppourtunity supplying "standard" milk rather than organic, which would account for negligible difference regarding growth rates.

It does show what we all know already also in that the ASX recognises the value in growth stocks more consistently and efficiently than the NZX does.

It may not be an IPO for ATM, but may as well be with 20M AMP shares available to the highest bidder, so well, let's see how it all goes on listing day.

noodles

17-03-2015, 05:14 PM

There is a thread for Bellamy's here
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10099-BAL-Bellamy-s-Organic&p=559850&highlight=BAL#post559850

I think it is a good comparison. Bellamy's profit is growing with its revenue. I wouldn't say that a2 is any better value than BAL. BAL has grown it's profit along with it's revenue and its growth profile is as strong as a2.

Both companies have conquered Australia. Both are expensive on a pe basis and I think are valued high because of their potential in new territories.

I own BAL , not ATM

noodles

17-03-2015, 07:13 PM

Another comparison:
Distance from broker targets
ATM 40%
BAL -10%

ATM wins!!!

NT001

17-03-2015, 10:55 PM

It was interesting to read comments left by reviewers

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/someone-please-explain-this-a2-milk-thing/story-fnkgdftz-1227265031916?pg=1#comments

Yes the comments were indeed interesting and mostly pretty sensible. But the website didn't publish my comment, which pointed out that the idiot journalist (I didn't call him that) who wrote the story hadn't done any research that would have answered his question - what's the story with A2 milk?

Instead he had quoted a nutritionist, when the issue has nothing whatever to do with nutrition as A1 and A2 are nutritionally identical; and a professor of brand marketing, who of course WOULD say A2 was just a clever branding ploy and there was really no difference between A1 and A2. What the hell would he know?

The comments from readers were far more informative than the newspaper article itself which was obviously written by a journalist trained to be provocative rather than informative.

NT001

17-03-2015, 11:19 PM

The parliament of the Indian state of Haryana, one of the country's most progressive agricultural and industrial states with a population of 25 million, has passed legislation banning the slaughter of cattle and setting up a governmental programme to promote the breeding of dairy cows that produce pure A2 milk.

Tsuba

18-03-2015, 07:52 AM

http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2015/03/california-consumers-are-about-to-get-a-taste-of-a2-milk/#.VQh3iijVlSo

skid

18-03-2015, 08:46 AM

xafalcon

18-03-2015, 11:03 AM

Apparently unpasteurized farm milk can be used for lactose intolerant (but thats another story)

I understand that the majority of posters in this tread are true followers, each stoking eachothers convictions on the properties of A2 milk and that's fine, but this comment is just plain nonsense. Like saying a peanut allergy is caused by eating peanuts, but not by peanut butter. Lactose is lactose.

PS. I've heard that daily consumption of ß-5 milk gives you immunity from all viral infections.......

babymonster

18-03-2015, 01:38 PM

a bit off topic.. the hotcopper has a a2m page/threat... nothing much on there tho..

Under Surveillance

18-03-2015, 03:36 PM

PS. I've heard that daily consumption of ß-5 milk gives you immunity from all viral infections.......

I've heard that too. The required course is said to involve 5 enemas a day for 4 months. Most often the patient is then not only immune from viral infections, but is absent all cognitive capabilities.

Jasemc

18-03-2015, 04:39 PM

Another huge day of sp trans amp might have nothing left for australia?

Snoopy

18-03-2015, 04:40 PM

Same thing last week. I thinks maybe he is off for a round of golf on Friday arvo.

Lucky he values the company slightly higher than SNOOPY's 1.5c. Or else we may see a rather large price movement!

Just to be clear, I am saying that Ben Graham, as per his methods espoued in the Intelligent Investor, would value ATM at 1.5c, and would want to buy in at less than that to make a profit. 1.5c would in Ben Graham's terms be the 'underlying value' of ATM. However, I do not consider net asset backing as an appropriate method to value ATM myself.

I do take issue here with others who see the 'underlying value' of ATM as 90c, because it was bid up to that price historically in an index buying frenzy. Of course you can easily do a discounted cashflow analysis valuing ATM at 90c by projecting ATM sales based on a multi-contintent conquest story and a high growth rate and business roll out plans that require no further external injections of capital to roll out. But I regard such a scenario as a fantasy.

SNOOPY

silverblizzard888

18-03-2015, 05:12 PM

Snoopy taking Ben Grahams appraoch doesn't work for assets that have more of a unique nature where premiums are generated. I think you're better off evaluating the ROI instead to show how such use of their assets is performing. Can't really use profit as a factor cause they are all growth right now. Right now I think they are fair value within the 50s range due their unique product which you cant get competitors coming in and tramping them so more of an Warren Buffet approach that this company has a moat around it. The thing about getting someone onto the product and believing A2 is better and A1 is harmful well technically you have a scaremongering tactic that in that persons mind they will consider drinking any A1 will make them quiver. If they were smart about it they should make A2 milk taste a little different by adding a subtle hint of something (don't ask me what) because then you really can play with someones mind about the difference. As it stands people don't taste or see the difference so they can switch between the A2 and A1 with a little less guilt, if you can get it so that its like drinking coke and pepsi then thats a good moat if you know what I mean ;) (I'm sounding evil haha, disregard my 2 cent =P )

see weed

18-03-2015, 05:17 PM

Lot more sellers than buyers. What do they know that we don't? Or is it Aussi sellers, selling their NZX shares so to have funds to buy a2 on the ASX? Or are the brokers softening the price to make it look good for new Aussi investers to get in at a nice low price. Looks like going to have to buy more at the next low point.:cool:

silverblizzard888

18-03-2015, 05:37 PM

It just looks more like people who thought on the 10th March that there would be a big increase selling out again because they realised its not instant money, just look at the sales volumes, on 10th and now, looks similar. So I'm more with that Day traders tried to get in for a several days realised they weren't getting the instant boost they wanted and now they are back out. Price will return to about 50-51cents

see weed

18-03-2015, 09:56 PM

:)
It just looks more like people who thought on the 10th March that there would be a big increase selling out again because they realised its not instant money, just look at the sales volumes, on 10th and now, looks similar. So I'm more with that Day traders tried to get in for a several days realised they weren't getting the instant boost they wanted and now they are back out. Price will return to about 50-51cents

7 sellers selling 863,822 shares between 53c and55c= about average 123,403 each. Do they really want to sell, or is it a block, trying to scare other sellers to sell? Maybe those big sellers have buy orders in at 51c or 52c. Have noticed biggish orders disappear in the past after clossing. Or am I too suspicious?:)

axe

19-03-2015, 11:39 AM

:)

7 sellers selling 863,822 shares between 53c and55c= about average 123,403 each. Do they really want to sell, or is it a block, trying to scare other sellers to sell? Maybe those big sellers have buy orders in at 51c or 52c. Have noticed biggish orders disappear in the past after clossing. Or am I too suspicious?:)

Biggish orders tend to have "fill or kill" instructions attached. But you can never to be too suspicious. :)

Harrie

19-03-2015, 11:47 AM

The comparison to Bellamy's is interesting. Probably very similar yes...

ASX.BAL = 95m shares @2.89 = ~275m MCAP. This is based on 141% current growth rate and $116m revenue (they have a small profit but like ATM are investing for growth). Current revenue multiple = 2.37

ATM = 660m shares @55c = ~363m MCAP. 38% current growth rate on $154m revenue. Current revenue multiple = 2.36

Interesting how the two align so closely in terms of revenue multiple, me thinks that's not just luck. Arguably ATM has the greater market oppourtunity supplying "standard" milk rather than organic, which would account for negligible difference regarding growth rates.

The revenue multiple is an interesting metric but seems to be reasonably consistent among food producing companies operating primarily in the dairy industry. Looking at freedom foods their growth rate is sub 10% and yet revenue multiples are 3.52 with a mkt cap of $465m and projected revenue of $132m. My understanding is that projected revenue for A2 FY15 is $230m. If this is the case the revenue multiple is 1.52 based on market cap of 350k.
Admittedly freedom and A2 are in different markets but if the aussy market starts to value up A2M on the same basis then the SP could end up around $1.30. That's a little ambitious but its not too far away from MAC's $1.10 valuation.

blobbles

19-03-2015, 12:44 PM

The revenue multiple is an interesting metric but seems to be reasonably consistent among food producing companies operating primarily in the dairy industry. Looking at freedom foods their growth rate is sub 10% and yet revenue multiples are 3.52 with a mkt cap of $465m and projected revenue of $132m. My understanding is that projected revenue for A2 FY15 is $230m. If this is the case the revenue multiple is 1.52 based on market cap of 350k.
Admittedly freedom and A2 are in different markets but if the aussy market starts to value up A2M on the same basis then the SP could end up around $1.30. That's a little ambitious but its not too far away from MAC's $1.10 valuation.

I think you might find they $230m revenue target is FY16 revenue target, not FY15. I think they will hit at LEAST $165m FY15, just taking into account the Aus market (they said their current growth rate is 40% in this market, 77m HY * 2 + (~20%*77)=~$165m. If they have some serious upside from China that may push them through to $180-190m plus any extra from US. This puts $230m next year as a very achievable goal, particularly if they are finding success in any one of their overseas markets. (I am picking 2 markets they should find reasonable success - China & USA). This years China result could be anything from 20-30m for all we know... next year... it could easily be 50m in fresh milk alone. A moderate success of 20m in USA/UK and they would have achieved FY16 with zero Aus growth (unlikely).

blobbles

19-03-2015, 12:58 PM

Of course they could find no success in any other market, pull back to Aus and only make 200m in FY16, 250m in FY17, 300m in FY18 etc. This still raises the prospect of ATM becoming a divvie paying company of around 5-8c over the next few years. Shows you how important success in other markets are... I am quietly confident at least one will take off, we are already hearing of decent sales in China and a lot of exposure in the US can't be all bad for ATM...

Harrie

19-03-2015, 01:04 PM

That's correct blobbles, I was getting a bit ahead of myself there. If your conservative estimate of $165m is correct, then applying the same revenue multiple as freedom puts the A2M price at around 88c. Again not too far from the brokers 90c target. Add perceptions of improvements in revenue from USA , china and squeezing a bit more out of the Aussy market and the 90c to $1.10 range looks possible. The risks of not hitting targets in these markets will keep the price within about 10% to 15% of the current price, or between 47c to 61c until proof of growth is an established Reality IMO

Snoopy

19-03-2015, 01:54 PM

The revenue multiple is an interesting metric but seems to be reasonably consistent among food producing companies operating primarily in the dairy industry.

Making up new valuation metrics because conventional market measuring sticks don't understand the special circumstances of the company that you want to invest in is the sure sign of a bubble. Sorry to be so blunt about this, but I think it needs to be said.

SNOOPY

Harrie

19-03-2015, 03:03 PM

Making up new valuation metrics because conventional market measuring sticks don't understand the special circumstances of the company that you want to invest in is the sure sign of a bubble. Sorry to be so blunt about this, but I think it needs to be said.

SNOOPY

If you want to be blunt then I'm not sure that a lot of your metrics add up either snoopy.
A lot of what you measure is historical and takes no account of opportunities going forward.
I have clearly outlined in post 3255 where IMO the risks are. The market has already assessed the risks of a2mc succeeding and the risks of not succeeding in the markets they have targeted. You are somewhat correct that a2mc is overvalued on current data, albeit highly pessimistic, but current valuations completely undervalue the stock if the growth opportunities come to fruition. With the SP of around 50c at the moment, all upside and downside risks are already discounted in the current price.
The sales multiple seems to be the only consistent metric that I can find as there is little variation between companies operating in the same space. I would expect that the lower the risk (or confirmation that sales targets are being achieved), the higher this multiple will go from present levels.
My assessment of possible price scenarios in previous posts above are based on sales revenues being achieved in the target markets.

winner69

19-03-2015, 03:09 PM

Harrie

19-03-2015, 04:58 PM

winner69

19-03-2015, 09:07 PM

Turns out that w69 has just proved that price to sales is not a metric that has been made up at all snoopy. Morningstar has considered this metric as reasonably valid otherwise why track it?
My point in above posts compares a2mc's current multiple with multiples of other companies operating in a similar space. That's not to say that there is a potential re rating possibility which would develop under different economic scenarios, such as interest rate hikes for example.

High price to sales ratio (and 5 is high) generally means a high price earnings ratio.

A price sales of 5 with a 10% profit margin gives a price earnings of 50. A 5% profit margin a price earnings of 100.

What Snoopy was getting at was if the likes of Freedom has historically traded at less than 1 times sales whats so special now that they trade at 5 times sales and by implication why does a2 warrant 5 times sales. Of course I forgot 'this time it's different'

Harrie

19-03-2015, 11:00 PM

High price to sales ratio (and 5 is high) generally means a high price earnings ratio.

A price sales of 5 with a 10% profit margin gives a price earnings of 50. A 5% profit margin a price earnings of 100.

What Snoopy was getting at was if the likes of Freedom has historically traded at less than 1 times sales whats so special now that they trade at 5 times sales and by implication why does a2 warrant 5 times sales. Of course I forgot 'this time it's different'

Morningstar's number for freedom looks like they exclude inter company revenues. With this included the price sales or the revenue multiple is more like 3.5 times.
I accept that it is traditionally high but then again freedom is a growth company. The recent revenue growth has not been spectacular which probably accounts for a lack of share price movement in the last year, however its also high because there are believers out there who obviously are expecting more future growth. It is no different with a2mc
You don't expect those sorts of multiples with established companies. If you assessed growth companies using p/e ratios you would never make an investment.
Right now, until further information is provided the range will be A$0.47c to A$0.61c for A2M. If current growth company revenue multiples are applied we could easily see A$0.86

Snow Leopard

20-03-2015, 12:54 AM

Morningstar's number for freedom looks like they exclude inter company revenues. With this included the price sales or the revenue multiple is more like 3.5 times...

Always eliminate from the numbers inter-company revenues (where one part of the organisation sells to another part of the same organisation).

So Freedom Foods quote a none proper sales value in their FY2014 report:
$122M7 of Gross Sales Revenues ("includes revenues from the group associate entity The a2 Milk Company. It also includes intercompany revenue").

If you actually look you will also find in the report such pukka values as:
$87M9 Net Sales Revenues and
$16M8 Intercompany Sales Elimination.

So you can take the the $16M8 from the $122M7 and get
$105M9 as combined sales for Freedom Foods and 17.7% of A2Milk net sales (cos Freedom own 17.7% of a2).

Use That.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

MAC

20-03-2015, 09:51 AM

For the newies, for whom I feel genuinely sorry for in this misguided debate,

Price sales ratios are not a method of valuation, they are merely just one of several metrics available on any particular company. They look down the income statement only as far as the top line and it is a forward assessment of bottom line estimates that determines a company valuation.

If two growth companies have exactly the same price sales ratio it does not mean that they have the same relative valuation. Consideration of gross and net margins is essential in valuing companies.

If one of those two growth companies will mature with a gross margin of 20% and a net margin of 2%, and the other will mature with a gross margin of 80% and a net margin of 15%.

Then, the latter will have much greater long run free cash flows, will be significantly more profitable in the long run, will have a much higher valuation, and will likely have a much higher market capitalisation as investors and the market tend to price in those cash flows ahead of time on a risk/reward basis.

Thus, it is the long run free cashflows that value a company, not individual metrics alone, and that is why professional analysts defer to DCF as a primary tool in assessing forward valuation and in evaluating sensitivity analysis.

Those whom may say that you can tweak a DCF to tell you anything are mostly the ones who have not the applied business experience, or are simply not doing it right, or are not forming a sensible base case, or are generally the manipulative on this forum.

Apologies if this sounds like valuation 101.

Kind regards, Mac

Harrie

20-03-2015, 11:10 AM

That's all good PT but even using your numbers above and adding effectively $20m of revenue from a2mc and a market cap of $462m you are still looking at a sales multiple for freedom of ~3.70. Bit different from the 5 quoted above. Admittedly still traditionally high but you expect that from a growth company.
I'll stick to my range and hope that similar multiples will drive the price higher when A2M lists on the ASX. P/E's are not relevant for growth companies, however they would be for ATM if their foray into intl markets came to a halt for whatever reason and they scaled back to Aussie. If I believed that would happen I wouldn't be there. All is on track and early signs look encouraging IMO

MAC

20-03-2015, 04:13 PM

Fair enough, but what you cannot see may well make you a poorer investor for it.

The intrinsic value within a company does not alter unless the fundamentals change, certainly not due to short term technical moves, or sentiment or AMP investment policy changes.

And you said exactly the same thing about my $5.80 DCF valuation on DIL when the share price was circa $3.50 if I recall, which is up 65% oddly enough since then, and oh what is the DIL share price as we type today.

And, just for correctness, $1.30 is not my valuation on PEB, that would be roughly Forsyth Barr's valuation at $1.25 with a BUY rating, my base case on PEB is $1.85, which I consider to be conservative.

DYOR & DYOA.

winner69

20-03-2015, 05:22 PM

No golf today ....bugger

Probably thought I will fool those buggers this week

blobbles

20-03-2015, 05:31 PM

lets not forget that MAC's metric's and his truth & reasoning give's him a valuation of $1.10 on ATM shares and $1.30 on PEB both double what they are currently trading at.....for the life of me I can not see much truth and reason in those valuations.

Then again, you must be able to see that ATM's case is much stronger for such a valuation rather than PEB's. ATM is a $150m company with a proven product and entering into new markets with a strong proposition of success. PEB... well... its all up in the air until they get some runs on the board...

MAC

20-03-2015, 07:52 PM

But then PEB's molecular RNA diagnostic kindred company EXAS, progressing more or less in parallel, are about awaiting some first runs as you put it too, but that’s a discussion for another thread really;

7214

Tsuba

21-03-2015, 05:35 AM

http://www.perishablenews.com/index.php?article=0043180

see weed

21-03-2015, 11:34 AM

YES totally agree.
Thought we would see some more large purchasing of ATM shares at these levels.

Me back in again, bought some more on Fri. Have put aside funds for the bottom of the cycle where ever that may be.

MAC

21-03-2015, 01:33 PM

Geoff always just looks so content with a glass of a2 in his hand, it’s always more than half full too.

Some interesting psychology of marketing as a weekend idle read here.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/companies/someone-please-explain-this-a2-milk-thing/story-fnkjkokq-1227265031916

Snoopy

21-03-2015, 04:39 PM

If say the chance of success in Australia is 100% (they have successed already) the chance of success in the UK is 75%, the chance of success in China is 75% and the chance of success in the USA is 50% (after all A2 have had one failed attempt there), then all of these probabilities must be muliplied together to get the chance of overall success.

1.0 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.5 = 0.28

So the fair value price to pay today based on Forsyth Barrs conquered USA assessment is:

0.28 x $1.24 = 35c

PS That 22.5c (my post 3070) I quoted for Australia only was assuming they abandoned their expansion plans in China, USA and UK. You can think of it as a 'lower bound' valuation, should all the overseas markets turn to custard.

Time for a bit of creative good news for you hapless ATM shareholders.

Let's redo these market success probabilities as follows:

Chance of success in Australia: 100%
Chance of success in United Kingdom: 85%
Chance of Success in China: 85%
Chance of Success in USA: 75%

Value of ATM should rollout to USA succeed in the future: $1.24

Risk adjusted today value for grand plan corporate roll out for ATM in the United Staes to succeed:

$1.24 x 1.00 x 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.72 = 52c

PT asked what I meant by 'succeed'. Each stage in the marketing plan must generate enough cash to fund the next stage. (this assumes no further capital raising by the company). Australia has 'succeeded' because it already generates enough cash to fuel the expansions mostly into the UK. The UK does not (yet) generate the cash to expand into the USA. My model assumes that Australia will continue to fund growth in Australia and the UK even when the UK starts generating surplus cash. That UK surplus cash will be sent off the United States to fund expansion there.

China is interesting because anecdotally some of the sales made in Australia are shipped off to China. It is not clear to me how many new direct China sales are incremental sales or just substitutes for goods that used to be bought in Australia. But I am assuming in my model that China must eventually 'succeed' in its own right to continue the global expansion plan.

So this calculation shows that ATM is indeed worth the current market price! Those probabilities do show that much of the forward success is already built into the share price at 52c though. Any weakness in cash generated from here could see the share price plummet as the need for a capital raising becomes urgent. I can't really understand why ATM management don't do it now ( aka Xero ) rather than taking the company to the brink like this. I can only assume it is because the existing large shareholders would not support a capital raising now. That could prove a costly misjudgement for all shareholders later.

SNOOPY

RGR367

21-03-2015, 06:00 PM

@Martyguptill drinks a2M!!! :t_up:

drcjp

22-03-2015, 07:43 AM

I have watched with some amusement all the tooing and froing over what is considered to be a "fair" price for ATM.
Fair has very little to do with it.

Someone is simply "shaking out the woodies" on ATM at the moment and I am dead certain that will stop in less than three weeks. Wonder why?
Then the price will go as far as the brokers can push it. Its that simple.

As for the fair value of ATM? Its not dictated by equity, assets or strategy. Its dictated by TURNOVER.
ATM represents a logical buyout company as it is asset poor and market rich. Its true capital is its turnover.
Just like a biotech, most of its IP is biotech derived.

Take over valuations on that style of company are in the vicinity of 2.5-4x the turnover. That puts its SP at 0.65 to 1.03 based on FY2015 coming up of $170M. Most biotech takeovers operate on a return phase of 4-5 years giving time to eek out the true alternative values of the IP eg. A2 derived creams, ointments, wellness products, etc.

ATM is not overpriced and proposing a value of 0.015 per share?....well.

PEB is overpriced as it has no capital turnover....yet.

BLT should be put down. That company has been mismanaged for years...cannot understand why the current CEO is still there.

Disclosure: own more than a few ATM and work in biotech sector. Actually made money out of BLT back in early 2013.

SwampRat

22-03-2015, 09:09 AM

Snoopy - your maths is wonky. You just calculated a 52% probability of ATM 'succeeding' on all fronts, not a fair share price of 52c.

skid

22-03-2015, 09:13 AM

NT001

22-03-2015, 10:25 AM

--Do the Chinese really give a toss about the benefits of A2?--or is it just a case of milk is milk?(as long as its not poisoned)

That’s a good question, Skid, and I don’t think a2MC have said very much about it. There is a general view that Chinese have a high degree of lactose intolerance, and it may be that this is actually intolerance of A1, which could be a strong selling point for A2 in a country where consumers are keen to adapt western dietary trends including dairy consumption. Perhaps word is getting around anecdotally that A2 milk is kinder.

A recent report I read (sorry I can’t find the source at this moment) said:

Although there are no official figures, studies have indicated that lactose intolerance affects around 30% of Chinese children, and a study of Chinese adults showed that 92.3% suffered from some level of lactose mal-absorption.

And Britain’s National Health Service says on its website:

Rates of lactose intolerance can differ significantly between different ethnic groups. For example, it is thought that … most people of Chinese descent have the condition.
This may be because people from places where there has historically been no ready access to milk, such as Africa or east Asia, may not have evolved the ability to digest lactose as there was no significant benefit in being able to do so. In the UK, lactose intolerance is more common in people of Asian or African-Caribbean descent.

From all this it would seem likely that many Chinese consumers want to drink more milk but find milk containing A1 gives them digestive difficulty. It would be interesting to know how much a2MC pushes this line in its Chinese promotion.

blobbles

22-03-2015, 10:26 AM

There are a no. of companys that are more or less betting the farm on the making it in the US --It would be interesting to research who has actually successfully achieved this -and how. (i realize ATM has a no. of markets)--which brings me to my next thought--Do the Chinese really give a toss about the benefits of A2?--or is it just a case of milk is milk?(as long as its not poisoned)

Chinese consumers are actually very clued up,particularly when buying foreign milk. I have heard them having discussions about why one countries milk is better in some ways than another countries (in China, in Walmart/Carrefoure/Metro). It stands to reason that a clued up population who have a slight natural intolerance to milk will want to buy a milk which is easier to digest.

ATM definitely are not betting the farm on the US market, they are placing themselves in lots of markets to see which ones take. If any of them do, they win big. With their high margins they will scale well wherever they succeed.

Snoopy

22-03-2015, 10:26 AM

Snoopy - your maths is wonky. You just calculated a 52% probability of ATM 'succeeding' on all fronts, not a fair share price of 52c.

Swamprat, in the plan to conquer the USA market development will be funded by free cashflow out of the UK. Likewise, the plan to conquer the UK is funded by free cashflow out of Australia/China. So the plan to conquer the USA does require ATM to succeed on all fronts. Break one link in the cash supply chain and the plan for the conquest for the United States fails. You may disagree with my assumptions of course. But I stand by my maths as being absolutely correct.

SNOOPY

Snoopy

22-03-2015, 10:59 AM

As for the fair value of ATM? Its not dictated by equity, assets or strategy. Its dictated by TURNOVER.
ATM represents a logical buyout company as it is asset poor and market rich. Its true capital is its turnover.
Just like a biotech, most of its IP is biotech derived.

Take over valuations on that style of company are in the vicinity of 2.5-4x the turnover. That puts its SP at 0.65 to 1.03 based on FY2015 coming up of $170M. Most biotech takeovers operate on a return phase of 4-5 years giving time to eek out the true alternative values of the IP eg. A2 derived creams, ointments, wellness products, etc.

ATM is not overpriced and proposing a value of 0.015 per share?....well.

Disclosure: own more than a few ATM and work in biotech sector.

Drcjp, I appreciate your hands on perspective from working in the Biotech Sector.

'Turnover' is not too different from the price to sales ratio that Harrie is touting. Not sure that I would agree with you about ATM being a biotech share though.

In the early days I believe it would have been correct to call ATM a biotech. Their main technology push was the test to sort A1 milking cows from pure A2 milking cows. Then when that approach wasn't getting much traction they became interested in joint ventures to push A2 milk itself onto the market. A2 milk is just that: milk. Not some high tech biotech procedure or product.

OK perhaps 'just milk' (albeit milk containing exclusively the A2 beta casein protein) is selling things short. ATM are purveyors or liquid milk, baby formula and other dairy products. But we are talking about product worth dollars per litre. Not hundreds of dollars per litre.

I also question your presumtion of a 'logical buyout company'. I am not sure A2 see being taken over as an end game. And if you do see ATM as a buyout opportunity, are you not valuing ATM on the basis of a takeover that may never eventuate?

Not sure about your extended market vision of A2 derived creams and ointments. Doesn't A2 intolerance stem from the digestive system? Is it a fair extemsion to say that A1 intolerant milk consumers will suffer similar intolerane with a topically applied skin cream?

I won't argue with your point that biotech company are in the vicinity of 2.5-4x the turnover. But applying that rule to ATM, should you not apply that multiple to the IP derived revenue that the conmpany earns, and not the mass market milk revenue?

SNOOPY

NT001

22-03-2015, 03:43 PM

...Most biotech takeovers operate on a return phase of 4-5 years giving time to eek out the true alternative values of the IP eg. A2 derived creams, ointments, wellness products, etc.

It wouldn't be possible to exploit a2MC's IP through A2-derived wellness products such as creams and ointments. A2 is not in any way touted as a "cure" or treatment for anything, not even for health conditions created by A1. It has no curative powers at all, as far as is known.

It's simply that by switching to pure A2 you're avoiding the ongoing harmful effects of consuming A1, such as digestive problems and the symptomatic impacts of certain medical conditions such as eczema, autism and schizophremnia. Sufferers of autism, for example, often find switching to A2 is beneficial because although it doesn't cure their disease they experience a considerable reduction in behavioural side-effects that are now believed linked at least partially to drinking A1 milk.

drcjp

22-03-2015, 04:51 PM

Hi Snoopy
sure, my post is only my opinion. But I think A2 really IS a biotech as they make their earnings off substantial IP surrounding A2 casein. Milk is the current avenue. Kinda like Manuka honey etc. Started with eating it and now....

When I said creams, I meant cream in your coffee. My bad.:mellow: ATM's not classed as a biotech by the NZX because again IMO, the NZX is immature, ineffectual and does not have any idea what biotech looks like. My experience with biotech is international which is another world indeed.

A2 protein can have many uses, just like A1. A1 casein is a body building supplement and used to facilitate tooth mineralisation.
Casein and its derivatives can assist gel formation in wound healing, an important property being exploited by CodaTherapeutics as part of its current programme.

Deriving from the above is WHY A2 will be a buyout, imo. From a biotech pov, its not what its selling now - that is literally the financial basis for purchase only, ie. capital turnover - its what the IP can give you into the future. I can see why you would only think its IP derived revenue, but any board worth its salt drives for pricing basis on total revenue, ie. a premium on untapped IP.

It's entirely possible to make a cream or skin ointment out of protein btw. Gut cells are epithelial in origin like skin. Granted differential effects must be carefully determined eg. strep throat bug in mouth gives bloody sore throat, but same bug on skin causes necrotising faciatis.

I realise I have an entirely different view on the company than most, but that's what makes investing fun :)

skid

22-03-2015, 05:28 PM

Chinese consumers are actually very clued up,particularly when buying foreign milk. I have heard them having discussions about why one countries milk is better in some ways than another countries (in China, in Walmart/Carrefoure/Metro). It stands to reason that a clued up population who have a slight natural intolerance to milk will want to buy a milk which is easier to digest.

ATM definitely are not betting the farm on the US market, they are placing themselves in lots of markets to see which ones take. If any of them do, they win big. With their high margins they will scale well wherever they succeed.

Yep,I was just kind of throwing it up for consideration--They(Chinese)do seem to be health conscious in terms of exercise but are pretty ''no frills''in other areas--i could see them eating Rhino horns but maybe not organic vegies--I kind of get the feeling that the clued in segment of the population is still relatively small(vast majority still more on the basic level,for food.) but Im no expert--maybe others would know(same with their uptake of Bliss products)

The idea of breaking into the US market was again just an idea to be kicked around(as many of the more popular shares are setting their sights on that market[probably even more so than ATM in terms of do or die]

This thread seems to be a new contender for the ''new darling'' in terms of threads:) from NZO to XRO,PEB to ATM

skid

22-03-2015, 05:32 PM

NT001

22-03-2015, 09:38 PM

Amazing that making milk back to what it was originally, is now Biotec --shows how far we have come in screwing things up.

That's a nice irony and an amusing one Skid, but not quite true of course. The corrupting of cows milk with the A1 gene was not a human screw-up (for once), but a chance random genetic mutation. And the biotech now being put into practice by a2MC lies in showing how this mutation causes various present-day human medical conditions, as well as developing a method of weeding out the screwed-up A1 cows to get back to the original milk formula that Plunket nurses used to feed to neanderthal babies.

blobbles

23-03-2015, 05:35 PM

Yep,I was just kind of throwing it up for consideration--They(Chinese)do seem to be health conscious in terms of exercise but are pretty ''no frills''in other areas--i could see them eating Rhino horns but maybe not organic vegies--I kind of get the feeling that the clued in segment of the population is still relatively small(vast majority still more on the basic level,for food.) but Im no expert--maybe others would know(same with their uptake of Bliss products)

The idea of breaking into the US market was again just an idea to be kicked around(as many of the more popular shares are setting their sights on that market[probably even more so than ATM in terms of do or die]

This thread seems to be a new contender for the ''new darling'' in terms of threads:) from NZO to XRO,PEB to ATM

In terms of Bliss products - the Chinese already have a well established and functional traditional medicine system that is very effective for them. Frankly not a lot of people suffer from colds/flu/strep throat in China, which is weird because you would think the high population and mostly cold winter climates it would be a good breeding ground. Which says something about the effectiveness of TCM. They definitely are NOT "no frills" in other areas, there is a reason it is now one of the biggest market for premium items in the world, from Lamborghini to Apple to Gold and more and more organic/health food. The people that afford these things are generally well educated and informed. They may only be 5% of China's population, but that is 70 million people, a bit more than the entire population of the UK.

The consumers themselves are usually a mixture of curious, excited and suspicious about western products. Hence they do a lot of research before buying stuff. But they will often buy expensive goods just for face, so they can show to their friends/relatives/business associates how worldly and clever they are at having found goods that differentiate themselves from a fairly vanilla populace. This is why it is a great market to be in with a product that is different, expensive and healthy (which ALL foreign milk is to them). The more you differentiate yourself, the more expensive you are and the healthier (whether perceived or real) the more you will appeal to this "upper class" and the more desirable you become. This applies to ATM in that it is already popular in Australia (a rich economy they look up to and is considered very unpolluted), very expensive but considered to be even healthier than normal milk. This is why I believe they will do well in China as long as they market themselves well and don't have any food scandals.

I see our 5 oclock man is back in town! ASX listing this week? Next week?

skid

23-03-2015, 05:59 PM

In terms of Bliss products - the Chinese already have a well established and functional traditional medicine system that is very effective for them. Frankly not a lot of people suffer from colds/flu/strep throat in China, which is weird because you would think the high population and mostly cold winter climates it would be a good breeding ground. Which says something about the effectiveness of TCM. They definitely are NOT "no frills" in other areas, there is a reason it is now one of the biggest market for premium items in the world, from Lamborghini to Apple to Gold and more and more organic/health food. The people that afford these things are generally well educated and informed. They may only be 5% of China's population, but that is 70 million people, a bit more than the entire population of the UK.

The consumers themselves are usually a mixture of curious, excited and suspicious about western products. Hence they do a lot of research before buying stuff. But they will often buy expensive goods just for face, so they can show to their friends/relatives/business associates how worldly and clever they are at having found goods that differentiate themselves from a fairly vanilla populace. This is why it is a great market to be in with a product that is different, expensive and healthy (which ALL foreign milk is to them). The more you differentiate yourself, the more expensive you are and the healthier (whether perceived or real) the more you will appeal to this "upper class" and the more desirable you become. This applies to ATM in that it is already popular in Australia (a rich economy they look up to and is considered very unpolluted), very expensive but considered to be even healthier than normal milk. This is why I believe they will do well in China as long as they market themselves well and don't have any food scandals.

I see our 5 oclock man is back in town! ASX listing this week? Next week?

Yep-If it turned out that 70mil turned out to be keen--It would certainly not be a drop in the bucket
Its easy to see why they are lured by shiny new western things like apple and Lamborghinis(think you might be getting a bit out of that 5% on that one)--I wonder how changing eating habits goes on that--they like that baby formula so stands to reason it would work with milk.

NT001

23-03-2015, 07:30 PM

Yesterday I posted a comment (3386) about China's reputedly high rate of lactose intolerance and suggested a lot of this might in fact be A1 intolerance, creating a strong potential sales point for a2MC. What's needed of course is human clinical research to verify this, and as a number of posters on this thread have emphasised, more human clinical trials could help sales overall.

The company's 1H15 report in fact states that it has already "commenced human studies in a number of markets" to further build on the important clinical trial recently conducted at Curtin University in Perth. Given that a2MC currently has only four markets (Australia, NZ, China and the UK, with the US coming soon), let's hope China is one of the "number of markets" where human clinical research is now under way - and the others as well of course.

babymonster

23-03-2015, 07:40 PM

6 days in a row closing lower.

winner69

23-03-2015, 08:24 PM

6 days in a row closing lower.

Some would call that a down trend and AMP not even to blame. Others would say a total irrational, esp as NZX approaches a new record high

Only back to what it was a week or so ago .... as they say what goes up must come down

couta1

23-03-2015, 08:33 PM

Some would call that a down trend and AMP not even to blame. Others would say a total irrational, esp as NZX approaches a new record high

Only back to what it was a week or so ago .... as they say what goes up must come down
The NZX may be approaching a record high but half of the stocks in it are way of there all time highs including this one.

winner69

23-03-2015, 08:45 PM

The NZX may be approaching a record high but half of the stocks in it are way of there all time highs including this one.

Looks like it eh but you have been around long enough now couta to know that for every winner there has to be a loser {mostly}. ATM just happens to be one of those losers

Or maybe just a case of that high of close to a buck was just plain stupid

Every dog has its day though .... might be ATM's day one day

GizyGold

24-03-2015, 10:21 AM

Looks like it eh but you have been around long enough now couta to know that for every winner there has to be a loser {mostly}. ATM just happens to be one of those losers

Or maybe just a case of that high of close to a buck was just plain stupid

Every dog has its day though .... might be ATM's day one day

2015 and 2016 will be a way better year for ATM and dont think it is even close to being a DDDDoggg and you are correct it will have its day soon!!. 50cents seem to be a great entry point prior to Aussie listing (considering A2 is starting to dominate shelf space). It is great exposure to the dairy/biotech sector. Doesnt appear to many shares like this on the NZX with this growth potential in the agriculture etc. I reckon it is far better proposition than Comvita etc.

skid

24-03-2015, 11:09 AM

Looks like it eh but you have been around long enough now couta to know that for every winner there has to be a loser {mostly}. ATM just happens to be one of those losers

Or maybe just a case of that high of close to a buck was just plain stupid

Every dog has its day though .... might be ATM's day one day

As we now know ,there have been a number of shares that entered the ''just plain stupid'' territory(most in the beginning stages of ''potential growth''--XRO-PEB-etc----Imo the trick is to try to get out of the mindset of valuing the share now days against that ''stupid'' price from before which can make it more difficult to stay objective.

How well the product is promoted is often an important factor that can be snowed under by the ''this is a great product'' mindset.
BLT has imo fallen prey to this and the jury is still out on PEB-..and ATM for that matter---Now that they are on the shelves,lets see how they actually sell--heres hoping.

NT001

24-03-2015, 02:08 PM

As we now know ,there have been a number of shares that entered the ''just plain stupid'' territory...
BLT has imo fallen prey to this and the jury is still out on PEB-..and ATM for that matter---Now that they are on the shelves,lets see how they actually sell--heres hoping.

A2 Milk seems to be getting more space on shelves in Wellington Countdowns. At Crofton Downs they now have FOUR lines of A2 on the shelves, well displayed and with long use-by dates, after I ticked off the duty manager for having just one line that soon disappeared and you had to often ask staff to break open another box. Obviously sales are doing well. Most Countdowns now have at least 2-3 lines.

Exodia

24-03-2015, 02:33 PM

A2 Milk seems to be getting more space on shelves in Wellington Countdowns. At Crofton Downs they now have FOUR lines of A2 on the shelves, well displayed and with long use-by dates, after I ticked off the duty manager for having just one line that soon disappeared and you had to often ask staff to break open another box. Obviously sales are doing well. Most Countdowns now have at least 2-3 lines.
Same deal with the Countdown in Kilbirnie, previously only had 1 line and now have 2/3 lines and haven't needed to send staff out the back to fetch more in some time now.

skid

24-03-2015, 02:38 PM

And now for the important stuff--China and USA

Harrie

24-03-2015, 03:40 PM

And now for the important stuff--China and USA

Couldn't agree more...also UK. Increasing sales revenue in these markets will be the SP driver.

winner69

24-03-2015, 05:25 PM

6 days in a row closing lower.

One of the stars of the bourse today

Nearly at the top of winners board

NT001

24-03-2015, 05:49 PM

One of the stars of the bourse today.
Nearly at the top of winners board

The 5 o'clock gang were either at Eden Park or glued to the telly. The rain nearly gave them a chance to get back to their screens though.

RGR367

24-03-2015, 11:40 PM

Grant Elliot drinks a2 Milk!!! :t_up:

sommelier

24-03-2015, 11:48 PM

New potential campaign - drink a2, get beard.

GTBC

Tsuba

25-03-2015, 05:32 AM

http://www.kcet.org/living/food/food-rant/whats-a2-milk-and-will-we-all-be-drinking-it-soon.html

sb9

25-03-2015, 04:27 PM

Another day with big volume, 1.2 ml shares so far.

ziggy415

25-03-2015, 04:42 PM

Grant Elliot drinks a2 Milk!!! :t_up:

he might but i cant...went to two different supermarkets on two different occassions and none to be seen....does this mean their selling faster or has fresher valley lost interest....been drinking normal milk and stomach just cant handle it.....soy here we come ..yuk

pietrade

25-03-2015, 05:09 PM

he might but i cant.....been drinking normal milk and stomach just cant handle it.....soy here we come ..yuk

Have you tried drinking raw milk? Some folk who have trouble with the highly processed pasteurized/homogenized/deconstructed/re-assembled stuff called 'milk' handle raw OK. Otherwise goats milk is readily digestible and does NOT included the feminising estrogen mimicers that soy has.

NT001

25-03-2015, 05:53 PM

Another day with big volume, 1.2 ml shares so far.

Yes the five o'clock gang took most of the day to recover from last night's cricket hangover and became very active in mid-afternoon, then dumped a few on the market at 50cents right on 5pm. Certainly looks like a very deliberate strategy to me - circular trading?.

If it's AMP wanting to quit a large holding, why would they be deliberately driving down the closing SP when there are clearly people willing to pay more, as shown yesterday for example?

Can someone suggest any scenario in which it might be to someone's benefit to keep the closing price at a certain low level for a period of time in order to qualify for some kind of share offer set at the price over that period?

It could make sense if a someone wanted to make a takeover offer (possibly partial) based on the closing price over that period, but I really can't see any of ATM's current major holders being the least bit interested in selling at anywhere near 50cents.

If it's something to do with the coming Aussie listing, to whose advantage is it to drive the price down prior to the listing taking effect?

hilskin

25-03-2015, 06:14 PM

sommelier

25-03-2015, 06:44 PM

Haha I love it!

NT001

25-03-2015, 07:23 PM

Danny Cipriani fronts A2 Milk in England

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-3009924/Danny-Cipriani-fronts-Welcome-Milk-campaign-following-strong-Six-Nations-showings-England.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-3009924/Danny-Cipriani-fronts-Welcome-Milk-campaign-following-strong-Six-Nations-showings-England.html#v-4132264789001

Yeah that's good, Hilskin, associating A2 Milk with sporting success. Pity he wasn't a bit better briefed on some background facts, though, where he says:

"I know a2 Milk has become big in Australia where it was initially launched and I once lived."

Doesn't he know A2 was initially launched in the land of the All Blacks, who usually beat the Wallabies?

Anyway, that's a minor detail - the main thing is a2MC is actively promoting the product.

drcjp

25-03-2015, 09:55 PM

Yes the five o'clock gang took most of the day to recover from last night's cricket hangover and became very active in mid-afternoon, then dumped a few on the market at 50cents right on 5pm. Certainly looks like a very deliberate strategy to me - circular trading?.

If it's AMP wanting to quit a large holding, why would they be deliberately driving down the closing SP when there are clearly people willing to pay more, as shown yesterday for example?

Can someone suggest any scenario in which it might be to someone's benefit to keep the closing price at a certain low level for a period of time in order to qualify for some kind of share offer set at the price over that period?

It could make sense if a someone wanted to make a takeover offer (possibly partial) based on the closing price over that period, but I really can't see any of ATM's current major holders being the least bit interested in selling at anywhere near 50cents.

If it's something to do with the coming Aussie listing, to whose advantage is it to drive the price down prior to the listing taking effect?
Quite simple. If a certain international fund operator needs to offload excess stock, then sell it to sister branch in another jurisdiction that may have need of it very soon to boost parent profits. Short and shake to obtain discount and fallen extras, then sit back and watch as new buyers in other jurisdiction snap them up on the rise.

My theory anyway.

Soldog

25-03-2015, 10:24 PM

Ginger_steps_

25-03-2015, 10:32 PM

a2 is selling for $4.70 at coles now, everyday price, not on special - in line with Aldi's price. Given Coles and Woolies reputation would it be safe to assume this is coming out of a2's pocket?

MAC

25-03-2015, 10:48 PM

That's a good question GS that probably only ATM could answer.

It may just come down to the terms of the respective retail agreements. With farm gate prices having dropped so dramatically the input costs for ATM will become lower over time.

It would be natural for the retail supermarket chains to want to share in that, although I would suspect that probably ATM margins would remain the same or may well even improve actually.

A retail price point drop from $5.00 to $4.70 is a much much lower percentage than that of farm gate milk prices which are down 40% or so in a relatively short space of time.

NT001

26-03-2015, 12:12 AM

If it's something to do with the coming Aussie listing, to whose advantage is it to drive the price down prior to the listing taking effect?

a2 Milk Company? :ohmy: Could-be, food for thought! :eek2:

Don't see the logic there, Soldog, especially as the a2MC board has already expressed the view the Aussie listing would help all shareholders, most of whom bought in at much higher prices than 50c.

NT001

26-03-2015, 12:15 AM

Quite simple. If a certain international fund operator needs to offload excess stock, then sell it to sister branch in another jurisdiction that may have need of it very soon to boost parent profits. Short and shake to obtain discount and fallen extras, then sit back and watch as new buyers in other jurisdiction snap them up on the rise. My theory anyway.

But why would they have to do it by this method which involves daily market contortions with only moderate amounts of shares being transacted at this price over a long period of time?

Ginger_steps_

26-03-2015, 12:38 AM

That's a good question GS that probust come down to the terms of the respective retail agreements. With farm gate prices having dropped so dramatically the input costs for ATM will become lower over time.

It would be natural for the retail supermarket chains to want to share in that, although I would suspect that probably ATM margins would remain the same or may well even improve actually.

A retail price point drop from $5.00 to $4.70 is a much much lower percentage than that of farm gate milk prices which are down 40% or so in a relatively short space of time.

Thanks MAC, makes sense i guess. I guess all will be clear in time - lets hope those margins are getting get so fat they need a mobility scooter to pop over to the ASX!

NT001

26-03-2015, 01:15 AM

Interesting story here from the well-informed Keith Woodford about a big shakeout in infant formula prices in China. Not clear how it might affect a2MC

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/is-chinas-infant-formula-market-about-to-see-a-price-crash/#more-1237

drcjp

26-03-2015, 07:16 AM

But why would they have to do it by this method which involves daily market contortions with only moderate amounts of shares being transacted at this price over a long period of time?

Only reason I can think of is to shake out frustrated holders who give up and they can snap at least some of them up.
Of course, the whole thing depends on the SP going up when A2 lists on the ASX...........

sb9

26-03-2015, 11:02 AM

Looks like it might be heading sub 50c soonish...

babymonster

26-03-2015, 11:16 AM

Got me wondering do only us see its potential? Buyers are a lot less then sellers.

see weed

26-03-2015, 01:53 PM

Looks like it might be heading sub 50c soonish...

Hope so. :)Last time I bought at these levels on 5 & 10/2/15 and sold on 4/3/15 = 19 bus. days and made $3,000 profit. Just bought back 20,000 today and will keep on buying down to the bottom.

see weed

26-03-2015, 02:09 PM

But why would they have to do it by this method which involves daily market contortions with only moderate amounts of shares being transacted at this price over a long period of time?

My theory is a handful of big shareholders pushing sp down so they can buy more at a cheaper price. eg. 590,000 shares @ 52c yesterday, today only 76,000 @ 52c. Just a big block there for a while until their buy order is filled. Makes it look like there is more sellers than what there really is.

sb9

26-03-2015, 02:13 PM

Hope so. :)Last time I bought at these levels on 5 & 10/2/15 and sold on 4/3/15 = 19 bus. days and made $3,000 profit. Just bought back 20,000 today and will keep on buying down to the bottom.

Well done you. I'm hoping to pick more at sub 50c levels...

ziggy415

26-03-2015, 02:14 PM

Hope so. :)Last time I bought at these levels on 5 & 10/2/15 and sold on 4/3/15 = 19 bus. days and made $3,000 profit. Just bought back 20,000 today and will keep on buying down to the bottom.
Hi see weed I work for the I R D and am quite interested in the above statement

ratkin

26-03-2015, 02:17 PM

Only reason I can think of is to shake out frustrated holders who give up and they can snap at least some of them up.
Of course, the whole thing depends on the SP going up when A2 lists on the ASX...........

If they havent shaken people out by now they never will. Most will of cleared out long since

ziggy415

26-03-2015, 02:17 PM

Hi see weed I work for the I R D and am quite interested in the above statement
nearly spilt your A2 latte......I wonder if the selling dries up after the end of financial year...it seems to be gathering pace....ps...im a plumber seeweed

see weed

26-03-2015, 02:23 PM

Well done you. I'm hoping to pick more at sub 50c levels...

Good aye. All I have to do now is repeat it 7 more times to make up for the $24,000 paper loss so far on this company.

see weed

26-03-2015, 02:28 PM

nearly spilt your A2 latte......I wonder if the selling dries up after the end of financial year...it seems to be gathering pace....ps...im a plumber seeweed

You are correct, there will be a bit of selling before end of FY.

ziggy415

26-03-2015, 02:33 PM

Good aye. All I have to do now is repeat it 9 more times to make up for the $30,000 loss so far on this company.
yeh...its a tough one...do you stop buying and wait or do you dig the hole deeper....most on this thread can only see upside but someone out there is unloading a truck load....Mac tried to explain where the shares were coming from with the Aussie listing so I cant see why the seller cant wait till Aussie listing unless there under time constraints

dodgy

26-03-2015, 02:45 PM

nearly spilt your A2 latte......I wonder if the selling dries up after the end of financial year...it seems to be gathering pace....ps...im a plumber seeweed

Hi Ziggy415
I guessed you didn't work for them as you appeared too upfront - and these days that wouldn't do, would it.
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

see weed

26-03-2015, 02:51 PM

yeh...its a tough one...do you stop buying and wait or do you dig the hole deeper....most on this thread can only see upside but someone out there is unloading a truck load....Mac tried to explain where the shares were coming from with the Aussie listing so I cant see why the seller cant wait till Aussie listing unless there under time constraints

Those figures were slightly high but have edited original post and wording. I like the product, so don't have any problem buying more at these lower prices.:D

Harrie

26-03-2015, 03:03 PM

Danny Cipriani fronts A2 Milk in England

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-3009924/Danny-Cipriani-fronts-Welcome-Milk-campaign-following-strong-Six-Nations-showings-England.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-3009924/Danny-Cipriani-fronts-Welcome-Milk-campaign-following-strong-Six-Nations-showings-England.html#v-4132264789001

Bit of a pity half the interview was unable to be heard because of the wind in the mic.

Missed opportunity when the interviewer talked about it being "scientific" That reeks of tampering and modifying. He lost the power of the message when he started mixing up other dietary changes with a2 milk...message.....The change in how he feels is therefore possibly interpreted as more to do with something else rather than a2 milk
He could of just refuted that its all scientific and said "no its natural milk, produced specifically from a2 cow herds". (Keep the beta casein out of it). The message is clear enough...buy a2 milk if you have the same symptoms as me. How do I know if the milk I am drinking is produced from a2 herds?, answer You don't, therefore buy a2 milk to be sure.

babymonster

26-03-2015, 03:56 PM

49c now... not even 5pm...

see weed

26-03-2015, 04:45 PM

49c now... not even 5pm...

Very light volume of 4,000 shares.

blobbles

26-03-2015, 04:52 PM

I suspect nobody is buying because they know there is a big seller out there who will sell at any price as they have already proved. SNOOPY could be right in that the SP could go down to 20-30c based on the sellers actions, but this does not indicate the value of the company IMO.

For those looking to invest, they see this and say "Why would I buy now when in a week I can get it for 5-10c less?".
For those holding and getting twitchy they see this and say "Why don't I sell what I have now and buy back in a week for 5-10c less?"

Hence the SP action.

There aren't many companies who are doing as well as ATM IMHO considering their growth and new market oppourtunities. But hey, think long term and put these in the bottom drawer.

dodgy

26-03-2015, 06:00 PM

mayday

26-03-2015, 06:19 PM

Hi blobbles
In my reckoning the days share churn is about 0.03% of shares - hardly worthy of consideration. Can someone confirm my maths please.
Still holding
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

AMP boys still have other 8m ish shares to shake off until their 'mission' gets completed, so be patient pals, always DYOR

JohnnyTheHorse

26-03-2015, 06:56 PM

AMP boys still have other 800m ish shares to shake off until their 'mission' gets completed, so be patient pals, always DYOR

That's interesting... not even that many shares in the company.

mayday

26-03-2015, 06:59 PM

That's interesting... not even that many shares in the company.

oops typo 8m :t_up:

winner69

26-03-2015, 07:17 PM

AMP boys still have other 8m ish shares to shake off until their 'mission' gets completed, so be patient pals, always DYOR

Fact or just speculation on your part?

JohnnyTheHorse

26-03-2015, 07:27 PM

Fact or just speculation on your part?

ATM thread mate, nothing but speculation and conspiracies.

MAC

27-03-2015, 09:20 AM

Ross Greenwood (Radio 2GB Sydney) speaks to Peter Nathan the CEO of A2 Milk its benefit and listing on the ASX. http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/96956

winner69

27-03-2015, 09:49 AM

Ross Greenwood (Radio 2GB Sydney) speaks to Peter Nathan the CEO of A2 Milk its benefit and listing on the ASX. http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/96956

Thanks for that

I sense 80 cents some time soon.

But then why aren't clever Aussie investors, esp institutions, not buying at 50 cents on the NZX at the moment - nothing stopping them is there.

see weed

27-03-2015, 09:53 AM

Ross Greenwood (Radio 2GB Sydney) speaks to Peter Nathan the CEO of A2 Milk its benefit and listing on the ASX. http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/96956

Peter Nathan makes it sound like it was started in Aussi. But I don't mind, as long as they keep on buying a2 milk and shares.:cool:

Soldog

27-03-2015, 10:41 AM

Peter Nathan makes it sound like it was started in Aussi. But I don't mind, as long as they keep on buying a2 milk and shares.:cool:

lol, Just think of a2MC as Phar Lap. The potential future of the wold dairy industry See Weed :t_up:

MAC

27-03-2015, 11:52 AM

Thanks for that

I sense 80 cents some time soon.

But then why aren't clever Aussie investors, esp institutions, not buying at 50 cents on the NZX at the moment - nothing stopping them is there.

Who knows, ACC increased to 38M shares recently, if other insto’s are looking to increase their holdings it would make sense to buy the very last block of shares from AMP, who knows how much further they will carelessly just trash the share price between now and then.

But, if AMP only have 8M to discharge now, it may only be a couple of weeks, or on ASX listing day, whichever comes first perhaps.

I sense $1.10 by September reporting, each to their own.

ratkin

27-03-2015, 01:31 PM

I sense $1.10 by September reporting, each to their own.

I sense 40c first

see weed

27-03-2015, 01:57 PM

I sense 40c first

I sense 50c first, but if it goes any lower, will definitely buy more:)

MAC

28-03-2015, 05:01 PM

Who is this Cipriani guy anyway ?

http://www.prweek.com/article/1340414/a2-milk-teams-danny-cipriani-welcome-back-milk-campaign

winner69

28-03-2015, 05:13 PM

Who is this Cipriani guy anyway ?

http://www.prweek.com/article/1340414/a2-milk-teams-danny-cipriani-welcome-back-milk-campaign

The Dan Carter of English rugby (though only quarter as good)

Next question -whose Dan Carter

This would have cost them heaps (probably close to 50-100k quid) as Danny does not come cheap. Bit of a playboy is our Danny.

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:05 PM

Danny has big ego .......but his Mum still loves him

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:21 PM

Girl talk is about what they would do to clean Danny up with that spilt milk over THAT body ....you need to imagine the rest because this is Sharetrader.

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:36 PM

A Welsh view of sportsman taking their clothes off
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/danny-cipriani-milk-advert-rugby-8919192

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:41 PM

What happened to Dannii then?

She get the sack or something, not sexy enough for a2?

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:43 PM

In the US they could get A-Rod to do the ads. Strengthen him up for even more home runs.

Go the Yankees, this is their year

winner69

29-03-2015, 12:59 PM

Seriously though - do you guys think using celebrity endorsements is the way to go and a good use of marketing money?

Xerof

29-03-2015, 01:25 PM

Richard Long was quite effective for Hanover, don't you think?

:cool:

oops, sorry, you wanted a serious answer

Well, I DO buy a LOT of Whittakers choccy..... but I don't sniff it off a mirror

winner69

29-03-2015, 01:39 PM

Well, I DO buy a LOT of Whittakers choccy..... but I don't sniff it off a mirror

No doubt Nigella has seduced you mate.

MAC

29-03-2015, 01:48 PM

Seriously though - do you guys think using celebrity endorsements is the way to go and a good use of marketing money?

Don't know Winner, Danni never made a vid quite like that one ?

Couple of Hollywood celeb endorsements in California might kick matters along, next best thing only to sending see weed to frequent Beverly hills supermarkets.

mayday

30-03-2015, 10:34 AM

A good news

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/567061/Waitrose-stock-dairy-free-A2-milk-more-stores

winner69

30-03-2015, 11:10 AM

We don't want Danny to drink too much of this stuff and feel heaps better.

I think he got 10 minutes of game time for England in the six nations .....if he continues to feel better come Rugby World Cup time he might feel so much better that England beat the All Blacks in th final and Danny is a star, just like Johnny was a few years ago.

iceman

30-03-2015, 11:12 AM

Well the headline is a bit silly isn't it ?

A good news

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/567061/Waitrose-stock-dairy-free-A2-milk-more-stores

winner69

30-03-2015, 11:15 AM

One good thing about Danny drinking milk is that he shouldn't be run down by a bus again while in a drunken stupor in the early hours of the morning.

Go Danny .....give the girls a thrill so they want a2

Harrie

30-03-2015, 11:21 AM

A good news

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/567061/Waitrose-stock-dairy-free-A2-milk-more-stores

Waitrose to stock dairy-free A2 milk in more stores.
Good news that that waitrose is opening up more stores which will sell a2, but that does not mean that more a2 milk will be sold necessarily.
Whats with the dairy free headline? bit confusing.

iceman

30-03-2015, 11:25 AM

The headline is more than a little confusing, it is outright misleading and unbelievable this has been published. Sort of undermines what should have been a good news story !

Waitrose to stock dairy-free A2 milk in more stores.
Good news that that waitrose is opening up more stores which will sell a2, but that does not mean that more a2 milk will be sold necessarily.
Whats with the dairy free headline? bit confusing.

JohnnyTheHorse

30-03-2015, 12:17 PM

ATM will be listing on ASX tomorrow.

MAC

30-03-2015, 12:26 PM

ATM will be listing on ASX tomorrow.

Are they not supposed to pre-announce such matters, ah well, good luck to all Australian investors looking to enter ?

http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm

Xerof

30-03-2015, 12:31 PM

A2M is the ticker, and there are heaps of announcements on ASX.com.au

Harrie

30-03-2015, 02:33 PM

For those who are hanging out for a big price rise tomorrow when A2M (A@M) lists on the ASX, there will be disappointment.
If the aussy isto's or private investors thought that a2 was a goer when it listed on the ASX would be wanting to buy now on the NZX at $0.49 wouldn't they?
That converts to around A$0.475. On that basis I am not expecting much more than A$0.47 to A$0.49 tomorrow.
Hopefully I will be pleasantly surprised.

NT001

30-03-2015, 03:06 PM

The current depressed share price would indicate the market is very dubious of ATM abilities to replicate it's Aussie success in the UK and Europe....

However from the number of stores that A2 has already got a foot in the door in the UK I would suggest that the hard part has already been achieved and given a good marketing campaign all shareholders will be very happy with the results in 12 months or so.

Nice to hear some optimism from you, Snaps, despite the first sentence in your post. I don't think the SP says very much about investors' perception of the UK or any other market right now. Why would the SP go higher when everyone knows there's a big insto overhang that's gotta go at whatever silly price? I think that's the main issue. We've actually seen that some buyers are willing to bid the SP up a bit, but it just keeps getting kicked back down. That's not normal market behaviour and it won't go on forever.

Each A2 market will have its own dynamic, with consumers being influenced by differing factors. Europe hasn't started yet, nor has the US. We're told the UK is on target. China looks like it's going to need some work, maybe with the release of new scientific research aimed specifically at health-conscious Chinese consumers.

I'm no expert but I wouldn't expect the SP to leap when the Australian listing begins, especially with all those other listings of non-entity companies also in the queue. It'll be a gradual process, helped I think by a2MC's announced plan to come out with new research using human subjects in its main markets. Many in the media are still confused, and saying the science is disputed because they don't understand it. That will gradually change, but not overnight.

Snoopy

30-03-2015, 03:43 PM

If the aussy insto's <snip> thought that a2 was a goer when it listed on the ASX would be wanting to buy now on the NZX at $0.49 wouldn't they?

Because Aussie institutions may have a mandate that only allows them to purchase ASX listed shares?

SNOOPY

Snoopy

30-03-2015, 03:54 PM

the current depressed share price would indicate the market is very dubious of ATM abilities to replicate it's Aussie success in the UK and Europe.

Actually I see ATM's market position as reflected in the share price in a completely contrary way. The reason that the A2 share price is so ridiculously high (remember you are paying 50c for only just over 1c in assets), is because success in the UK market is already assumed and built into the ATM share price at 50c. If they succeed in the UK, that will put a floor under the share price near current levels. If not, you can expect the share price to retreat from here.

however from the number of stores that A2 has already got a foot in the door in the UK I would suggest that the hard part has already been achieved and given a good marketing campaign all shareholders will be very happy with the results in 12 months or so.
On that basis I am seriously considering adding some more, at these levels, to my portfolio.

I think it is more pertinent as to whether the UK market can generate enough cash for further expansion in the UK AND sufficient cash for ATM to expand in the US. If not you can expect a cash issue or placement soon at 40c. And that share price level is where the head share price will gravitate to as well.

Buying in now in anticiaption of success in the UK will see you retain your capital if you are right and lose money if you are wrong. And such a trade off makes for an awful investment proposition!

SNOOPY

Nasi Goreng

30-03-2015, 04:26 PM

If ATM are successful in UK, would the market then not start to get even more optimistic and then price in growth for other markets? If that is the case, then I would see further upside to the share price rather than that being the price ceiling.

Harrie

30-03-2015, 04:37 PM

Because Aussie institutions may have a mandate that only allows them to purchase ASX listed shares?

SNOOPY

I think "may" is the operative word snoopy. Not having that restriction is more realistic. No institution would want to operate under that mandate voluntarily and ASIC would be ill advised to impose one.

see weed

30-03-2015, 05:06 PM

4.43pm. nzx listing rule. ASB make you wait 20 minutes before you can read it:mellow:

NT001

30-03-2015, 05:25 PM

The SP of Synlait, which manufactrures product for a2MC, slipped sharply today after the halfyear result came out.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/210530.pdf

But the last paragraph is interesting in terms of ATM (which is not mentioned specifically)

JohnnyTheHorse

30-03-2015, 07:18 PM

No idea why ATM didn't announce to the NZX that the ASX listing had been approved. I guess we can expect a flurry of announcements tomorrow morning as they announce the ASX listing and officially announce the changes in the board. The options being issued at 63 cents shows some real confidence.

Tomorrow will be a very telling day. Both due to the ASX listing and because of the last day of the financial year. If we see some big volume I suspect she'll be all go. If not, business as usual for awhile.

babymonster

30-03-2015, 07:25 PM

Lost of documents have been posted via asx. I just saw them on hot copper website. The listing must be close.

babymonster

30-03-2015, 07:32 PM

It will star tomorrow 12.15pm. 600+mil shares

winner69

30-03-2015, 07:45 PM

It will star tomorrow 12.15pm. 600+mil shares

That's a lot of shares eh babymonster

drcjp

30-03-2015, 08:20 PM

I'm not impressed. The ASX announcement should be on their website, its not. Should be on the NZX, its not. I know there are no new shares and that the 600M they state is just existing amount. Coupled with the recent FHY report just appearing on the NZX (I know, the date was reported on the ATM website but it should have been given to NZX as well) the A2 milk company communications dept need a bloody rocket. Its a bad look and suggests somethings wrong or they dont care.

mayday

30-03-2015, 08:28 PM

sommelier

30-03-2015, 08:39 PM

Awesome to see Ulrike McLachlan still in there.

JohnnyTheHorse

30-03-2015, 08:43 PM

winner69

30-03-2015, 08:52 PM

Top 20 Shareholders of A2MC (at present)

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m0pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

also

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m6pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

Mayday, you on hotcopper.

That's good - you are charged with ramping the **** out of A2M, like never before. A lot depends on you

OK

babymonster

30-03-2015, 09:10 PM

Yes, both asx and NZX websites are useless. If you try the code a2m on your broker website (mine is ANZ), it has all the documents too.

iceman

30-03-2015, 10:21 PM

see weed

30-03-2015, 11:01 PM

Top 20 Shareholders of A2MC (at present)

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m0pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

also

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m6pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

On 31/1/15 NZ Central Securities Depository LTD. were the top sh. with 306,212,305 shares. They seem to have disappeared and have been replaced with about 11 smaller holders.

winner69

31-03-2015, 06:31 AM

It's all go today and what a nice touch by the ringing of a cow bell at opening. Awesome

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/a2-milk-shuns-asia-rush-as-shares-hit-asx-boards-20150330-1m6td3.html

Mayday - dont forget your new job in ramping the **** out of ATM on hotcopper.

see weed

31-03-2015, 08:07 AM

babymonster

31-03-2015, 10:11 AM

so can we sell our holding on asx?

dingoNZ

31-03-2015, 10:15 AM

so can we sell our holding on asx?

Talk to your broker, but simple answer is no, not easily anyway

winner69

31-03-2015, 10:22 AM

so can we sell our holding on asx?

Why would you want to do this anyway?

Harrie

31-03-2015, 10:29 AM

Can't see where the shares to buy are coming from.
Only logical explanation is that one or two of the insto's or maybe freedom have indicated to the company that they want to sell. Its then a question of what price. There may be a big spread between buyers and sellers in that case, unless the sellers are keen to get them off their books after reading snoopys valuation analysis.
Bit of a strategic faux par IMO that Burbidge has effectively talked down the importance of baby formula in China and instead going for the market that has a perceived intolerance to dairy. Not sure if that science has been proved yet?

winner69

31-03-2015, 10:52 AM

dingoNZ

31-03-2015, 10:54 AM

Brokers 'shunt' shares back and forth

Even babymonsters shares could be sold on the ASX .....but he wouldn't know as for him it would be a NZ transaction.

its very common in the bigger names, SPK, FPH, FBU, TME, most of which are generally lead by ASX traded stock (ie it drives the price in the NZ market).

For an individual such as yourself to do it could be done, but not without costs and is simply just a pain to do.

babymonster

31-03-2015, 10:55 AM

Brokers 'shunt' shares back and forth

Even babymonsters shares could be sold on the ASX .....but he wouldn't know as for him it would be a NZ transaction.

ok, so the sp movement will be the same on both stock exchange. if the aussies want to buy, they will have to buy them through us..if i understand it correctly, basically the listing on asx is to create more buyers.. good for me..

dingoNZ

31-03-2015, 10:57 AM

A lot of Australian fund managers have set mandates where they cannot investing in stocks outside of the ASX, so yes, an ASX compliance listing will mean they can get a finger in the pie, so to speak.

winner69

31-03-2015, 10:59 AM

ok, so the sp movement will be the same on both stock exchange. if the aussies want to buy, they will have to buy them through us..if i understand it correctly, basically the listing on asx is to create more buyers.. good for me..

Eventually there will be a pool of shares on a Australia Register.

Still think all this is being done to help / make it easier for Freedom get rid of their shares.

see weed

31-03-2015, 12:14 PM

More buyers than sellers so far on ASX:)

Harrie

31-03-2015, 12:20 PM

I suppose shares are shares at the end of the day whether they are purchased in $NZ or A$
I am surprised to learn that some Australian institutions have self imposed mandates to only purchase shares on the ASX. Very limiting, but IMO this would tend to increase demand as insto's work to diversify their portfolio's into shares which were not previously available to them, especially those with a track record and brand awareness in Australia.
Balance that off with potential sellers and this afternoon will look interesting around 2:30pm NZ time. IMO I don't see Freedom as a seller when I read between the lines in their last report. I'm also of the opinion that AMP should be well out of the market by now.
My guess of trading range this afternoon will settle in the A$0.47 to A$0.49 mark for A2M. That should push a2mc to up around NZ$0.51 maybe NZ$0.52 mark.

babymonster

31-03-2015, 12:23 PM

here comes the announcement...

mayday

31-03-2015, 12:23 PM

a2 Milk shuns Asia rush as shares hit ASX boards

http://www.afr.com/business/a2-milk-shuns-asia-rush-as-shares-hit-asx-boards-20150330-1m6td3

Harrie

31-03-2015, 12:35 PM

Buyers at mo A$0.51 ~NZ$52.50!

see weed

31-03-2015, 12:48 PM

ASX been open over half an hour and orders not traded yet?

JohnnyTheHorse

31-03-2015, 12:48 PM

Buyers at mo A$0.51 ~NZ$52.50!

Very early days. 1.5 hours until it opens, so a lot will likely change. The good thing to take from it at this point is that it looks like it will be actively traded on the ASX, unlike several other dual listings of late. That is very good news.

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 12:53 PM

Buyers at mo A$0.51 ~NZ$52.50! I think it starts trading at 12.15pm aussie time?

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 12:55 PM

ASX been open over half an hour and orders not traded yet? Yup, can confirm 12.15pm AEDT / 2.15pm NZ time......

see weed

31-03-2015, 01:00 PM

Yup, can confirm 12.15pm AEDT / 2.15pm NZ time......

Silly me. Thanks.

airedale

31-03-2015, 01:01 PM

Are Milford Asset Mgmt listed under another name?

Top 20 Shareholders of A2MC (at present)

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m0pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

also

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvQkIK5w m6pmH0rZlJ2%2Fk%3D

Nasi Goreng

31-03-2015, 01:08 PM

I wonder if 5pm seller will become 4pm seller in Oz?

Harrie

31-03-2015, 01:09 PM

I think it starts trading at 12.15pm aussie time?

Yes I was aware of that GT. Was just looking at the depth before trading started 2:15pm our time
One buyer now at A$0.55. Seller in there at A$0.50, but big seller at A$0.51 and many more sellers now coming on board. Should settle around the A$0.51 mark...very interesting jostling for position. Someone is desperate to sell by the looks of it!

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 01:25 PM

Yes I was aware of that GT. Was just looking at the depth before trading started 2:15pm our time
One buyer now at A$0.55. Seller in there at A$0.50, but big seller at A$0.51 and many more sellers now coming on board. Should settle around the A$0.51 mark...very interesting jostling for position. Someone is desperate to sell by the looks of it! My mistake - I meant to reply to See Weeds question.

sb9

31-03-2015, 01:33 PM

1 bidder(4k) at 575c and other(10k) at 56c on ASX...hmm interesting

If they were to be true, the sp on this of ditch should close at 60c.

Bilbo

31-03-2015, 01:36 PM

Are Milford Asset Mgmt listed under another name?

I think they use Tea Custodians

iceman

31-03-2015, 01:36 PM

They are just making sure they get the shares that are for sale at 50c and 51c ! Right now all 230,000 shares for sale at 50 & 51c are taken.

1 bidder(4k) at 575c and other(10k) at 56c on ASX...hmm interesting

If they were to be true, the sp on this of ditch should close at 60c.

Harrie

31-03-2015, 01:44 PM

They are just making sure they get the shares that are for sale at 50c and 51c ! Right now all 230,000 shares for sale at 50 & 51c are taken.
Yep agree with that iceman, although the sellers may adjust upwards closer to 2:15 NZ time. To be pitching there though shows that they are keen to sell, but by the same token there are obviously some really keen buyers prepared to pay what it takes to grab what they can. Still reckon around NZ$0.52 by end of Aussy trading day, unless seller moves away

iceman

31-03-2015, 01:51 PM

No doubt there will be a few adjustments closer to opening. For a start those 3 sellers at 50c could change to 52 and get taken out as things stand at present ! It will be interesting to watch.

Yep agree with that iceman, although the sellers may adjust upwards closer to 2:15 NZ time. To be pitching there though shows that they are keen to sell, but by the same token there are obviously some really keen buyers prepared to pay what it takes to grab what they can. Still reckon around NZ$0.52 by end of Aussy trading day, unless seller moves away

Harrie

31-03-2015, 01:55 PM

Jeepers this is really interesting. Buyers uped the buy price to A$0.575 and is met with sellers happy to sell at A$0.48.
Buyers could get ripped here. Depth doesn't give the full story but on the surface there are buyers for 112000 at A$0.55 and above but sellers of 383000 at A$0.55 and below

drcjp

31-03-2015, 02:13 PM

ignorant question: how do they reconcile major differences on the two exchanges?

Nasi Goreng

31-03-2015, 02:17 PM

I've got a similar question to that. I expect it will be quite easy most of the time and both markets will watch each other and it will reconcile itself. On the other hand, I've watched shares like BHP on ASX, UK and US boards and I can't figure out how they are priced. Different number of shares and PE multiples are different in each geography.

Wow crazy open! 56.5c

Harrie

31-03-2015, 02:26 PM

5pm boys are starting early today? Watch the price go to NZ$0.52 from NZ$0.56 at opening on ASX by 5pm NZ time

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 02:33 PM

Can you or someone please give me a link to the ASX page - I'm new to the ASX website and think im on the wrong page.....

Mic

31-03-2015, 02:41 PM

Can you or someone please give me a link to the ASX page - I'm new to the ASX website and think im on the wrong page.....

You could try here

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/equityPrices.do?by=asxCodes&asxCodes=a2m

Cheers

winner69

31-03-2015, 02:49 PM

Brad Haddin drinks a2

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 02:50 PM

You could try here

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/equityPrices.do?by=asxCodes&asxCodes=a2m

Cheers Thanks Mic - I was in the right place - the ASX website is terrible!

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 02:53 PM

5pm boys are starting early today? Watch the price go to NZ$0.52 from NZ$0.56 at opening on ASX by 5pm NZ time 52 is better than 49.5!

NT001

31-03-2015, 03:08 PM

Can you or someone please give me a link to the ASX page - I'm new to the ASX website and think im on the wrong page.....

I think you'll find this site far more informative

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/

Ginger_steps_

31-03-2015, 03:11 PM

I think you'll find this site far more informative

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/ It is! thanks NT!

winner69

31-03-2015, 03:25 PM

Winner69. As I write this we are about 16 hrs away from the ASX listing. Your posts over the last 2-3 weeks are very confusing. To clear things up, do you want to disclose your trades, if any in, ATM in the last 2 months ? I suspect many people will be interested...............

All I have said over the last few weeks is 1) ATM is overvalued and not a screaming buy at current prices 2) ASX listing will not be as hot as the likes of MAC makes it out to be and 3) Danny is hot and the girls love him but it is costing a2 milk heaps.

I stick with 1) and 3). Re 2) we have to wait to see if MACs 80 cents eventuates soon.

My play money goes into ATM at times .....driven by the squiggly lines despite 1). Today has been a good day ....but he'd some back in case MAC is right.

How you going iceman