ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[skid]

BETTER MARKETING--Your reference to A2s position is a good example of not the best use of marketing, of a proven good product.

Hopefully they have learned from that.

It is not a fair world out there in the world of market share as we have seen.--And dont think for a moment that those Mums using the formula have not had the seed of doubt planted(even if unfairly)

Question is -where to from here?

Unfortunately a suet brings up a raging debate with the adversaries continuing to argue their point (right or wrong its still out there)

Perhaps the first step (before jumping in,boots and all $$) would be a campaign with ads that key on the positives and set things right on the false accusations.

Can bad PR be turned into good PR? Hopefully

Unfortunately this world of bringing products to the market in our so called free market,involves warfare---What I dont think some understand is that having the best product is only the start--The rest is up to marketing and distribution.

People often dont use simple logic when making decisions on what they purchase--They act on what they have been conditioned to think.

I have a friend who worked for a large firm in Europe in marketing--He said they regularly would have what was called ''war games''
This involved ''think sessions'' where they would gather to try to guess what the next move would be by their competitors and stay one step ahead.

You not only have to have the best product--You have to SHOW the consumers why they want it. (As , Im sure we have all seen, this also works when you dont have the best product)--Hell,if they can talk you into buying water....(who would have thought 20 yrs ago)

Or sugary carbonated drinks that have been proven to cause serious health problems--or even milk contaminated with growth hormones by Monsanto in the States.

This show on TV may well be just a case of how the battle lines have been drawn.

[MAC]

Yep, and when a company like a2MC has a humble but growing 9.3% market share thus far, everything to gain from chasing some of the remaining 90.7%, a product they absolutely believe in, and which consumers support enthusiastically, a2MC should absolutely be hammering out a loud and carefully focused positive marketing response.

Perhaps, simply because they are nearing their 10% goal, it's time now to have an all out, no holding back, public debate on the matter, I see little down side risk to that, and enormous potential, perhaps they might ultimately even achieve a 12 to 15% market share over time.

Aside: each percentage point in Australian fresh milk market share is worth around $12M in revenues, at a 35% gross margin, $4.2M in cashflows. And, whilst the company is rapidly diversifying away from a dependency on Australian fresh milk sales they are still important to the company.

[skid]

They have taken a small hit --how they regroup is the key.---The distributors seem to be doing their job--now its the turn of the marketing staff.

I dont think its the time for David to take on Goliath full on--for now it might be good to just show how good David is and let the giant go on sleeping for now(in terms of the suet)

[ziggy415]

any publicity is good publicity especially if its followed up with a "we,ve got nothing to hide campaign" or something along the lines of "its only going to cost you $3 to find out"....i dont think an all out assault on the films producers is the right way to go,...time will tell

[skid]

There have been times I remember tv shows making a corrections if its been brought to their attention that the piece was misleading--also there are sometimes comments for that show on the next weeks show--not sure how this one works.
We've got nothing to hide sounds like you are on the back foot--a nice positive ad showing the real facts about A2 milk and how wonderful etc. etc. might get more milage.:)==like ''next to mothers milk its the best thing you can do for the most precious thing in your life'' etc. etc. Gosh, makes me want to go out and buy some now (provided I cant find a Mother):)

[K1W1G0LD]

I would'nt hold your breath with this stock. It could take years to show a Substantial lift in SHAREPRICE.

[ziggy415]

I would'nt hold your breath with this stock. It could take years to show a Substantial lift in SHAREPRICE.
Cant disagree with your facts there K1....you put a good argument forward so i guess there,s no point in crying over spilt milk:ohmy::D

[Harrie]

I'm with you Skid, make something positive out of something which is potentially damaging. Don't hide, bring it out into the open, refer people to it and then start working on turning it around.
I don't think a2mc can kid itself that this program will not get to the USA. It will be everywhere where people will be researching it.

Realistically, having read the response from ABC TV to a2mc's complaints to "the check out" program, I believe that sending in lawyers to sue ABC television for misrepresentation based on the known and proven facts, is pretty risky. A lot of the credibility behind A2 milk is actually anecdotal evidence. That's not scientific, its opinion. That action could backfire badly.

I'm no marketing expert but some response is needed otherwise as NT001 has pointed out, most people will continue to believe its bull**** unless it is contested in some way.

Something like "here is what the program says...this is what we say and this is what our customers say" or here is what our independent peer group response to our research says..."etc
I like the saying that "a2 infant formula is the closest thing to mothers milk a child can drink because it has all of the natural a2 protein and none of the a1 protein".

More research needed on detrimental impact of a1 and BCM-7. I understand that work is continuing in that area.

[mayday]

More research needed on detrimental impact of a1 and BCM-7. I understand that work is continuing in that area.

Indeed, it's been underway
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/61142/proteomics-international-wins-contract-with-a2-milk-company-61142.html

[NT001]

The Proteomics contract is not for research into the A1-A2 issue or the detrimental impact of A1. It's simply a contract to verify that when a2MC sells A2 milk it is really pure A2. It's a quality control measure that involves daily monitoring of a2MC product.

In the past, there has been at least one incident a few years back in which a batch of A2 Milk was found on analysis to contain small traces of A1. It only needs one farmer-supplier to let one cow carrying the A1 gene to get milked along with his A2 herd for this to happen, and it can seriously damage the product's reputation, so it needs to be monitored closely, especially when there are some people who would like to discredit a2MC.

But Harrie is correct, that further research is under way. Some of it is supported by a2MC but a lot is being undertaken independently by research teams round the world, often without a2MC's knowledge until the results are published. These researchers are motivated not by wanting to help a2MC but by concern at the health and medical risks associated with A1.

[MAC]

Well, April came and went with no official NZX announcement of first US sales, perhaps the good folk at a2MC just don’t feel a need to let us all know ?

The road show started on 21st April, probably still going strong, happily wooing Australian insto’s, and I’d been pondering the definition of “grocery weighted distribution” within that presentation also.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/a2MC-Roadshow-Presentation-Apr-15.pdf

It seems to be a market share term, for instance, a2MC source their Australian market share data from the Australian Grocery Weighted Scan.

Thus, a2MC intend to have a2 milk on the shelves within circa 70% of the Southern Californian grocery market by the end of July 2015, ...., that’s quite remarkable really,

Just add the pending US TV campaign, due to start about now, and it all kicks off.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/263841

First NZ likes them...

[ziggy415]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/263841

First NZ likes them...
who is nz first capital and Harbour asset......anybody

[Harrie]

who is nz first capital and Harbour asset......anybody

NZFC is both an institutional wholesale and retail broker. they also provide research and run discretionary portfolio investment and monitoring system with certain clients. Harbour asset management are a straight funds management group also working at the wholesale end of the market. FCNZ may provide funds to them to manage as part of their own discretionary portfolio arrangements with clients. So harbour may manage some of their funds in a specific market sector for example, as part of a bigger portfolio.

[winner69]

NZFC is both an institutional wholesale and retail broker. they also provide research and run discretionary portfolio investment and monitoring system with certain clients. Harbour asset management are a straight funds management group also working at the wholesale end of the market. FCNZ may provide funds to them to manage as part of their own discretionary portfolio arrangements with clients. So harbour may manage some of their funds in a specific market sector for example, as part of a bigger portfolio.

Harrie, you don't give FNZC due credit. They say First NZ Capital is one of New Zealand's leading finance houses offering share broking, portfolio management, investment banking*, financial and economic research services. We have been a trusted provider of wealth management and investment advice to individuals, companies, institutions and governments for over 50 years. Our strong local expertise is backed by our strategic alliance with Credit Suisse Group, a relationship that has existed for more than 20 years.

Also FNZC. own 80% todd of Harbour

[Harrie]

Yes, I covered all that but without all their own self promotion, which, by the way you have presented it, has been copied directly from their website or other self promotional material.
Harbour is a separate entity with expertise in areas that FCNZ don't have.

The question was, what do they do, not how good are they at doing it!
Nevertheless I'm pleased to see that they have taken an active interest in a2mc after conducting their own research.

I see that the mandate that NZSF had with Milford is suspended, not cancelled pending the outcome of the "manipulation" enquiry.
IMO I would be surprised if anything came of it. The FMA very rarely will bite if it all gets too hard. the best they can do is to constantly show their teeth.

[MAC]

Even if a2MC were to produce a few youtube vids of their own outlining their case for consumers and interested folk to find randomly on the internet, to provide some balance with the checkout.

Not vids targeted at health professionals so much, but with a bit more than commercial sound bites as at present, how about vids for;

The case for a2 infant formula being the closest to a2 human milk as one can possibly buy.

And perhaps, some presentation of what evidence does exist for the contribution of a1 protein to each specific medical condition.

A2MC are never going say "a1 causes each condition”, but there is room I think for them to scatter a few condition specific vids around on the internet which outline the contributory effects that switching to a2 may very well avoid or mitigate.

[Harrie]

Yes good stuff Mac. Small sound bites around specific issues. and where current research is around those issues.

1. Are you really lactose intolerant? (80% of those who believe they are dairy or lactose intolerant may not be)
2. Could standard milk be conducive to diabetes?
3. Is stomach bloating caused by standard milk?


a2mc can put their own spin and findings to all these questions which would help to mitigate any scepticism generated from the ABC program

[sb9]

Interesting to note on trading depth, 2 sellers offering combined 610k @94c. They must either know something we all here don't or just believe in the product, good on ya guys.

[MAC]

Interesting to note on trading depth, 2 sellers offering combined 610k @94c. They must either know something we all here don't or just believe in the product, good on ya guys.

Craigs have a price target on ATM of 92c as I understand, they initiated coverage last year at 90c.

Nice, to see some consistency in research and valuation from them.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/297765/genuine-opportunities-a2-milk

[skid]

Interesting to note on trading depth, 2 sellers offering combined 610k @94c. They must either know something we all here don't or just believe in the product, good on ya guys.

Would it alarm you if I put in a bid for 800,000 @ 3c-----Its just stuff--the same thing has happened with countless other shares (was'nt long ago some one put in a sell @1.80 for PEB(SP was low 70s at the time)--wouldnt pay it much heed

[MAC]

How does that even work, 15% more try's, 15% more advertising contracts, 15% more groupies, what ?

7331

[ziggy415]

Craigs have a price target on ATM of 92c as I understand, they initiated coverage last year at 90c.

Hi Mac,.. I see the article is 1 year old yet i feel A2 is further along the growth curve now than when they valued A2 at 92 cents yet the sp is only 52 cents now ...go figure....

[winner69]

How does that even work, 15% more try's, 15% more advertising contracts, 15% more groupies, what ?

7331

With Danny it's probably the last mentioned

Hardly try's or related, only sat on the bench last season.

A2 shareholders need Danny to score big time at the World Cup and take the trophy off the All Blacks. Go Danny .....drink more of that white stuff and please no more getting run down by buses

[ziggy415]

going to be big turnover day today...lets see if sp responds appropriately

[sb9]

going to be big turnover day today...lets see if sp responds appropriately

Any particular reason for that, I mean for big turnover today?

[MAC]

Hi Mac,.. I see the article is 1 year old yet i feel A2 is further along the growth curve now than when they valued A2 at 92 cents yet the sp is only 52 cents now ...go figure....

There’s still time Ziggy;

I’m with NZ First Capital (spot $1.24) and Craig’s ($0.92) on valuation and considered $0.90 as fair value at this time last year, $1.10 at present.

Certainly the company has grown since then, they are ahead of plan in Australian market share, that Australian infant formula result at the HY was simply phenomenal, the 3M litre per annum fresh milk exports to China will be kicking in about now, as will the post regulation distribution of infant formula in China.

New markets and opportunities opened up in the UK and US for very little capital input. Not to mention the new product ranges, UHT, cream and yoghurt coming on stream.

I think what can happen with sentiment curves, is folk can make the psychology and associated charting patterns self-fulfilling with little consideration to fundamental outlooks. But, at the end of the day such circumstances offer opportunities to well researched FA’s.

Some will disagree with that and that’s what makes a market at the end of the day, some short termers will say that the SP on the day is what the market values a stock at, not a view I prescribe to as it implies illogically that there is no worth within a company.

When the intrinsic fundamental business case is improving over years so will the SP follow over time.

Milford, NZ First Capital, Harbour Asset Management, ACC and whatever other Australian insto’s that have been and are buying up big time are the ones that will benefit over the long term.

Enjoy the opp whilst it remains a half price discount sale in ATM shares.

[drcjp]

I have major issues with NZFirst Capital.
They can't count and have just been censured: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11444061
IMO, para. 5 in the news link is VERY illuminating given present ATM trading profiles this year.

[Snoopy]

Hi Mac,.. I see the article is 1 year old yet i feel A2 is further along the growth curve now than when they valued A2 at 92 cents yet the sp is only 52 cents now ...go figure....


No mystery Ziggy. If the attainable end goal remains the same, but the company has to spend twice as much money to get there as they thought, and as a result the profit earned at the end of the day halves then the value of the company halves. That is how company valuation works. ATM is actually more expensive now at 52c than it was at 92c, when it was assumed all markets would roll over according to the Australian market roll out plan.

SNOOPY

[MAC]

Here we go, a2 milk now available within the first 10 Whole Foods stores in California.

http://a2milk.com/find/

First of many I suppose, on their way to getting to circa 70% distribution in Southern California by the end of July, still reckon that’s quite a remarkable objective a2MC have set.

All on time, well managed, delivered to plan, all good, well done all the new staff in the US.

US TV campaign next.

[skid]

Here we go, a2 milk now available within the first 10 Whole Foods stores in California.

http://a2milk.com/find/

First of many I suppose, on their way to getting to circa 70% distribution in Southern California by the end of July, still reckon that’s quite a remarkable objective a2MC have set.

well its a start,but as we all know ,Its the supermarkets is where the $$ is--Gotta start somewhere though----(there really does have to be big numbers for food items to make it)--still waiting for some book to come out by some health Guru raving about A2

[babymonster]

quite a few sub holders reducing their holding... wonder why...anyone has any suggestion?

[skid]

No mystery Ziggy. If the attainable end goal remains the same, but the company has to spend twice as much money to get there as they thought, then the value of the company halves. That is how company valuation works. ATM is actually more expensive now at 52c than it was at 92c, when it was assumed all markets would roll over according to the Australian market roll out plan.

SNOOPY

Well that post certainly challenges the ''Half price bargain of the century'' viewpoint:)---Interesting debates around this share

[sb9]

Sure was big turnover day today with nice lift in sp....

[NT001]

This piece by Keith Woodford would appear to suggest the golden days are over for infant formula in China.

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2015/05/06/synlaits-akarola/#more-1275

It is unclear whether a2MC has any inside running in what Synlait and New Hope are doing. Probably not, despite its close working relationship with Synlait. Whatever, it's not necessarily bad news for a2MC. A lot of the trashy speculators will now be squeezed out of the China market, enabling consumers to focus on just a few select brands. It will also allow them to more easily understand the unique digestive/health benefits of A2 milk, which should appeal particularly to Chinese, who are more susceptible than westerners to the downside of becoming dairy consumers.

This market upheaval also confirms that perceptions of a2MC's future being firmly based on the China market are incorrect. There has to be a broader strategy, with a lot of focus on the smaller but more mature US and UK markets, plus extensions into continental Europe and SE Asia - and that is exactly what the company has already signalled.

An interesting aspect that Woodford has not alluded to here is that Synlait's Chinese partner New Hope, the prime mover in this market transformation, is now firmly tied up with Freedom Foods and the Perich-Moxey dairying consortium in Australia. Freedom owns 17% of a2MC and the Perich herds have been providing a significant part of the A2 milk being shipped to China. Just recently, the Perich group. which controls Freedom Foods, ceased to have seats on the a2MC board representing Freedom, and it will be interesting to see whether Freedom and Perich remain friends of a2MC or a split opens up and they become rivals in the China market. All the more reason to not have too many eggs in the China basket.

[MAC]

Yep, the best is the best when it's the closest infant formula to a2 human milk, and one might think that could be all important to all mums, notably though perhaps in particular to a doted one child policy prodigy.

[Harrie]

Interesting stuff NT. I guess the question is what sort of contractual relationship is there between a2mc and SNL in terms of processing a2 milk formula. Is there a renewable contract, could SNL cancel the contract legally? A lot of questions around that.

On the other hand SNL could use new hope to help distribute a2 baby formula. That would be a win/win for both companies. The question then is around a2mc margin. While that may drop it may be substituted for greater sales opportunity if marketed correctly.

This then leads on to why freedom foods would not want to also open up their own distribution channels to a2mc. You may wonder why would they do that for a 17% share of a2's profit when they can sell their own non a2 milk for 100% share of their own profit, but a2mc is bigger than the Chinese market and 17% of total profit in a2mc may be worth more than what they could lose in profit by promoting a2 milk in China along with their own milk. Possible that Freedom could cut a2mc out from their China distribution network and still maintain their shareholding in a2mc.

Interesting times

[MAC]

Honestly didn't know that they sold a2 milk powder like that, or perhaps it's the next product yet to launch. Interesting job's some folk have ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRICvBrN8ho

[mayday]

Here it goes, hmmm don't really care about their packaging story yet good to know A2 on its track

http://www.packworld.com/package-type/cartons-and-boxes/gabletop-cartons-unique-cows-milk-establishes-credentials

[NT001]

Interesting stuff NT. I guess the question is what sort of contractual relationship is there between a2mc and SNL in terms of processing a2 milk formula. Is there a renewable contract, could SNL cancel the contract legally? A lot of questions around that.

I think an even more important question could arise over a2MC's formula import arrangements into China. Late last year a2MC announced an agreement to appoint China State Farm Holdings Shanghai (CSF) as its exclusive import agent for a2Platinum infant formula into mainland China. CSF now provides government relations advice and support while a2MC has assumed responsibility for distribution of infant formula products within the market and will progressively establish new distribution arrangements. a2MC will continue to oversee the marketing and communication activities for the brand.

I have always felt it dangerous for a2MC to give one company absolute exclusivity on any part of its operations, because if that company decides (for whatever reason) to become a less than enthusiastic partner it can effectively shut down a2MC's commercial operation. This has happened before. We don't know, for example, whether there is any tie-up betweem CSF and New Hope. Maybe I'm too suspicious, but in dealing with China I always look for the trap.

[MAC]

Certainly China is a delicate place to do business NT001, it’s easy for us to forget that it’s both a communist and a corrupt part of the world, but in having an incumbent government linked entity to process importation, I think a2MC have in aggregate de-risked that part of the process as far as any business possibly could.

I was a little surprised also when they decided to manage the in country distribution themselves, and have assumed that it resulted from a desire to better control costs, manage theft and corruption, and perhaps to better target market to specific retailers and geographic areas.

Still though, it’s not direct operational management as far as I’m aware, they will still be tendering for local incumbent distributing/courier type companies.

Looking forward to the China segment result actually, have a positive feel for that result, a sniff of very strong demand from Australian infant formula winging its way to China on the black market, fresh milk sales to China at 3M litters per annum kicking in about now.

And, who knows what the deal is with the a2 milk powder testing, but I suspect we may soon hear that they are selling that into Asia also.

[NT001]

There could be an interesting court decision in India directing that non-A2 milk carry health warnings. A case has been filed arguing for such an instruction to be made mandatory.

http://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/ahmedabad/others/Put-health-warning-on-milk-packs/articleshow/47193809.cms

The debate about A1/A2 in India revolves around two separate issues. One is the health aspect, with Indian researchers playing a leading role in establishing the medical harm that A1 milk can cause in humans. The other is a kind of nationalistic argument in favour of a ban on cows that have resulted from inter-breeding between Indian native breeds (which are pure A2) and European breeds that carry the A1 gene. Inter-breeding, especially with Friesian-Holsteins, can increase milk yields, and has been so common that it is now hard to find pure Indian bovine stock. But there is a strong popular movement in favour of returning to the traditional Indian breeds, which can survive well on far less feed than the Europeanised cows, can consume food scraps and other roughage instead of requiring pasture and expensive cattle feed, and have a much higher immunity to disease and thus require much less veterinary medication such as antibiotics.

[NT001]

Here's a longish article in an industry newspaper about a recent conference addressing the problems of trying to turn milk from an undifferentiated supermarket commodity into a value-added food that offers real benefits that can be promoted through branding. A2 gets a couple of specific mentions as an example of what to do, and a2MC's UK boss Scott Wotherspoon is one of the speakers quoted, which is good to see. The article helps explain the context in which A2 milk has been able to establish itself as a premium brand: it has a real point of difference that is beneficial to the consumer. It's interesting to read how the industry as a whole is floundering around, wondering how to emulate this.

http://www.just-food.com/analysis/a-four-point-plan_id129994.aspx

[skid]

There could be an interesting court decision in India directing that non-A2 milk carry health warnings. A case has been filed arguing for such an instruction to be made mandatory.

http://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/ahmedabad/others/Put-health-warning-on-milk-packs/articleshow/47193809.cms

The debate about A1/A2 in India revolves around two separate issues. One is the health aspect, with Indian researchers playing a leading role in establishing the medical harm that A1 milk can cause in humans. The other is a kind of nationalistic argument in favour of a ban on cows that have resulted from inter-breeding between Indian native breeds (which are pure A2) and European breeds that carry the A1 gene. Inter-breeding, especially with Friesian-Holsteins, can increase milk yields, and has been so common that it is now hard to find pure Indian bovine stock. But there is a strong popular movement in favour of returning to the traditional Indian breeds, which can survive well on far less feed than the Europeanised cows, can consume food scraps and other roughage instead of requiring pasture and expensive cattle feed, and have a much higher immunity to disease and thus require much less veterinary medication such as antibiotics.

I wonder if Monsanto has a foothold in the cattle industry there like they do in GM agriculture--Its a crime whats going on in India (and of course other places)
They have had some real issues with cows and milk in the States(growth hormones)--If A2 could provide a good alternative it would be good (hopefully there is not some free trade deal that allows them to sue for lost profit.

[skid]

[QUOTE=NT001;571538]Here's a longish article in an industry newspaper about a recent conference addressing the problems of trying to turn milk from an undifferentiated supermarket commodity into a value-added food that offers real benefits that can be promoted through branding. A2 gets a couple of specific mentions as an example of what to do, and a2MC's UK boss Scott Wotherspoon is one of the speakers quoted, which is good to see. The article helps explain the context in which A2 milk has been able to establish itself as a premium brand: it has a real point of difference that is beneficial to the consumer. It's interesting to read how the industry as a whole is floundering around, wondering how to emulate this.

I reckon value added food is the key to New Zealand success rather than wholesale export of raw commodities.

[NT001]

For those interested in more details and developments regarding Synlait's new marketing strategy in China in cahoots with New Hope, here's yet another article by Keith Woodford. One of his main points is that a strategy based on lowering the infant formula price by selling direct online could backfire to some extent because Chinese consumers tend to assume that a lower price may indicate lower quality.

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/chinese-infant-formula-and-synlait-the-story-moves-on/#more-1290

[mayday]

strong support at 0.50 ish

[Harrie]

strong support at 0.50 ish

Not surprising. It will stay in the 49c to 53c range until we get data on progress in target markets, or some research from India comes out which instigates a banning of a1 milk in India, or some other authorative research from another quarter.

Program on TV a few days ago about farming goats milk. The farmer stated that it was a natural milk, "the closest milk to mothers milk you can get". He stopped short of saying that it had only the a2 protein which was a bit of a shame, but why promote his competition understandably.
Not a serious threat to a2 milk, but does anyone know how economic goats milk is to produce c/f Cows milk?

[sb9]

I think someone's (big player) offloaded today...

[NT001]

...Program on TV a few days ago about farming goats milk. The farmer stated that it was a natural milk, "the closest milk to mothers milk you can get". He stopped short of saying that it had only the a2 protein which was a bit of a shame, but why promote his competition understandably. Not a serious threat to a2 milk, but does anyone know how economic goats milk is to produce c/f Cows milk?

Well, goats milk and formula is pure A2, and that's why a lot of people have found it easy to digest who react badly to the cows milk in supermarkets, and goats milk formula sells well at a very high price to consumers who are aware of the A1/A2 issue. But there's not a lot of it around. Goats are harder to manage than cows, per gallon of milk, so no economic threat there. But it's useful to have goats milk around as an example of the advantages of A2. Same as buffalo milk etc.

All milk except the mixed-up version of cows milk you find in supermarkets is A2 and therefore good. I personally buy A2 cows milk (Fresha) but when I buy yogurt it's from sheeps milk (at Commonsense Organics) if I can get it, and I buy the wonderful feta cheese from Blue River in Southland also made from sheeps milk (at New World). I doubt that goats milk can compete with cows milk on price - its formula sells at a very high price in the supermarkets and there aren't that many goats being milked. But sheeps milk is a growing industry in NZ and could compete with A2 cows milk on quality, although not outdo it on quantity. It sells on taste, which to many consumers is better than cows milk and also has a higher nutritional value.
NT

[skid]

Healthwise I think goats milk is at the top,but as you say ,the economics dont make it to much of a threat for A2

[MAC]

Goldman Sachs Adds A2 Milk Co to Conviction Buy List

[Ginger_steps_]

Goldman Sachs Adds A2 Milk Co to Conviction Buy List That sounds promising. Do you have a link? I looked up the conviction list, but it was behind a paywall....

[silu]

Just got my order filled at 50c. That's the bottom right? ;)

[MAC]

Cripes !,

That's some good confidence after just a couple of months of selling in California, things must have either gotten off to a really good start, or alternatively not off to a bad start at all.

“The sharemarket-listed premium milk company backed by the billionaire Perich family believes its fledgling US business could grow to generate more than half its revenues after its a2 milk brand rapidly secured shelf space with leading retailers in southern California”

“Managing director Geoff Babbage said the increasing health-conscious focus of US consumers, especially in the major cities, provided a big growth opportunity. “Our plans would assume that the revenue opportunity in the US market should be bigger than the Australian business, which at the moment is worth between $140 million and $150m in turnover and that is growing. So that gives you a sense of the size of the opportunity’’

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a2-milk-to-make-a-splash-in-california/story-e6frg8zx-1227359496246

[skid]

Goldman Sachs Adds A2 Milk Co to Conviction Buy List

Im not saying thats a bad thing ,but when GS got involved with NAN the SP really suffered--Some believed they were shorting it --It happened several times (Goldman Sachs change of interest buying...sellling...buying..etc)
It got so that some were selling their shares immediately upon hearing GS was making another move---They really seemed to be playing the market in that share.

If you see change of interest and its Goldman Sachs --just beware and keep a close eye---they are not a nice outfit.(even though it seems like great news at the time like it did for me)

[MAC]

Cripes !,

That's some good confidence after just a couple of months of selling in California, things must have either gotten off to a really good start, or alternatively not off to a bad start at all.

“The sharemarket-listed premium milk company backed by the billionaire Perich family believes its fledgling US business could grow to generate more than half its revenues after its a2 milk brand rapidly secured shelf space with leading retailers in southern California”

“Managing director Geoff Babbage said the increasing health-conscious focus of US consumers, especially in the major cities, provided a big growth opportunity. “Our plans would assume that the revenue opportunity in the US market should be bigger than the Australian business, which at the moment is worth between $140 million and $150m in turnover and that is growing. So that gives you a sense of the size of the opportunity’’

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a2-milk-to-make-a-splash-in-california/story-e6frg8zx-1227359496246

Ooops, sorry about that link, full text below;

The sharemarket-listedpremium milk company backed by the billionaire Perich family believes its fledglingUS business could grow to generate more than half its revenues after its a2milk brand rapidly secured shelf space with leading retailers in southernCalifornia.

After launching a2 in the US market two months ago, the group’sUS boss, Jeffrey O’Neill, said the brand was on track to be in retail storesthat represented 70 per cent of the groceries dollar volume spent in southernCalifornia by the start of July.
The a2 Milk Company also has commitments from retailers innorthern California and is *optimistic of achieving a similar market positionthere from *August.

“We have a very specific roll-out plan over the next two tothree years. Once we have California established, the goal would be to get tothe northeast. We have a plan to roll out across the country,’’ said MrO’Neill, who is the former chief executive of Pepsi Cola Canada.
While regular cows milk contains a blend of the A1 and A2 betacasein proteins, a2 claims it is the only company that processes milkexclusively containing the A2 protein, which many *people say is easier todigest than regular milk.

Managing director Geoff Babbage said the increasinghealth-conscious focus of US consumers, especially in the major cities,provided a big growth opportunity. “Our plans would assume that the revenueopportunity in the US market should be bigger than the Australian business,which at the moment is worth between $140 million and $150m in turnoverand that is growing. So that gives you a sense of the size of theopportunity,’’ Mr Babbage said.

“I would like to think that in a number of years’ time the US opportunityis strong and a significant contributor to our overall business.’’
The company told investors early last month that it intended toinvest $US20m ($25m) in the US over the next three years.
Its product is sold in half-gallon cartons and it has a localpartner to manage the milk supply and processing.

The a2 Milk Company, which is dual-listed on the New Zealand andAustralian sharemarkets, is 17 per cent-owned by the Perich-family controlledhealth food company Freedom Foods. The Auckland-based group now has 9 per centof the Australian fresh milk grocery channel by value.

[NT001]

...The sharemarket-listed premium milk company backed by the billionaire Perich family believes its fledgling US business could grow to generate more than half its revenues after its a2 milk brand rapidly secured shelf space with leading retailers in southern California.

That extract from today's report in The Australian strikes me as interesting because of the emphasis put on the Perich family connection rather than the connection with Freedom Foods, which is based in Melbourne where the story originated from.

Sure, Perich has 60% control of Freedom Foods, but it is Freedom Foods that is still the listed owner of a 17% stake in a2MC. And yet if you look at the Freedom Foods website I think you'll search in vain for any mention whatever of a2 milk - in fact what you find is constant reference to the health risks of dairy and the allergies and intolerances it causes.

Which is a bit odd because Freedom and Perich, as separate entities, have recently formed a massive joint venture with a Chinese corporation to export dairy into China. Have they warned their Chinese consumers?

To quote a paragraph from Freedom’s website (http://www.freedomfoods.com.au:

Those with a dairy allergy are allergic to the proteins in cow’s milk, and their immune system reacts badly as a result. Symptoms can include vomiting, wheezing, skin rashes and abdominal pain, among others. Unfortunately, the only solution to a dairy allergy is to eliminate products containing cow’s milk from your diet.

Really? You’d think that as the 17% owner of a2MC it might point out that in most cases the simple answer to the milk protein problem is to try a2 milk. Instead, it avoids even mentioning a2 milk and recommends ditching dairy altogether and switching to Freedom’s branded almond milk (and eating broccoli for calcium).

At least the head of the Perich family, which is Australia’s biggest dairying outfit, is on public record as saying a2 milk solves some consumers’ dairy allergy problems. I wonder if they’ve looked at Freedom’s website.

I also wonder why Freedom is shipping milk (containing A1) to China and yet retains its as yet unprofitable 17% stake in a2MC. The whole thing seems to me to be riddled with inconsistencies.

[Harrie]

Very positive news MAC, but not trying to be negative, too many Should's Could's and maybe's to influence much price movement in the short term. Until actual revenue numbers are confirmed in the UK and USA markets its unlikely to move outside the 49c to 53c range. Not a problem for long term investors...still on track.

Very confusing messages coming out of Freedom NT. I agree, shipping milk to China then telling everyone how bad it is? You would also think that with a 17% holding the marketing people at freedom would use every opportunity to promote a2 milk to try if there were digestive problems with regular milk.

[MAC]

I’m not really interested in the short term to be honest Harrie as you know.

I’ve always held that the Californian market may well offer great potential, and this is the first advice we have had from a2MC offering a prospective market size, greater than Australia, excellent.

Certainly that paints the picture behind all the market research the company has done and provides some whom may otherwise have thought that the US market might just be a small nice to have on top of the Australian business with a whole new perspective.

Certainly plugging those prospective revenues and forward free cashflows into ones DCF will make every shareholder smile.

I would like to get a bit more from the company, I think though it’s probably around a five year plan to get to those estimated US revenue levels, first two years to break even, another three years of revenue growth, all good.

But for now it’s satisfying just to hear that the launch has gone well, the US supermarkets are flocking to the four products on offer, and the company is confident enough from the first two months of market feedback to make a bold forward prediction.

All good, up and away in the US.

[biker]

I’m not really interested in the short term to be honest Harrie as you know.

I’ve always held that the Californian market may well offer great potential, and this is the first advice we have had from a2MC offering a prospective market size, greater than Australia, excellent.

Certainly that paints the picture behind all the market research the company has done and provides some whom may otherwise have thought that the US market might just be a small nice to have on top of the Australian business with a whole new perspective.

Certainly plugging those prospective revenues and forward free cashflows into ones DCF will make every shareholder smile.

I would like to get a bit more from the company, I think though it’s probably around a five year plan to get to those estimated US revenue levels, first two years to break even, another three years of revenue growth, all good.

But for now it’s satisfying just to hear that the launch has gone well, the US supermarkets are flocking to the four products on offer, and the company is confident enough from the first two months of market feedback to make a bold forward prediction.

All good, up and away in the US.

And on that note (not because of that note) I've topped up at A 48.5c

[Harrie]

Apart from my comments on short term SP movements, I agree with you 100% about the long term MAC. The thing that has got me a little excited is Babbage, a man who says very little to the media, downplays most things, lets Milford do all the talking about future prospects, gives nothing away, resists saying anything either positive or negative, coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. That tells me quite a lot about early signs of progress in that market. He doesn't strike me as the sort of person that would make those sort of positive comments lightly unless he had good reason to back them up. Having said that, of course there is always plenty of opportunity, its the conversion from opportunity to reality which the market will be assessing in the coming months.
In my view a sales result in the USA market higher than expected by the market at reporting time will easily drive the price to 50% higher than where it is now.

[MAC]

We certainly won’t see meaningful sales form the US in the next report, it’s not only earlier than ATM have planned for, but there are only a couple of months of US activity within the reporting period.

Certainly though they are walking the talk,

All on track and on time with the US launch, they have told us that they expect second half UK revenues to double, they are ahead of their fresh milk market share goal in Australia, infant formula is practically flying off the shelves in Australia, and they expect fresh milk exports to China to double this year.

I think this coming FY report may be a little understated by analysts with a consensus for $154M (+38%) in revenues.

I’m looking for $161M (+45%), but wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as $166M actually.

[NT001]

...The thing that has got me a little excited is Babidge, a man who says very little to the media, (is) coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. ...

What excites me even more, Harrie, is that the US CEO, Jeffrey O'Neill, already has a plan for rapid nationwide expansion, including a move soon into the northeast. That makes sense, given that a2MC is already using a milk processor in New York state, and the northeast fits exactly with Babidge's definition of the kind of regions the company is looking to in order to exceed its Australian market success.

[Apathy]

Ap The thing that has got me a little excited is Babbage, a man who says very little to the media, downplays most things, lets Milford do all the talking about future prospects, gives nothing away, resists saying anything either positive or negative, coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. .

A rare commodity - should be stuffed and mounted! Would love to see these guys do well.

[sb9]

We certainly won’t see meaningful sales form the US in the next report, it’s not only earlier than ATM have planned for, but there are only a couple of months of US activity within the reporting period.

Certainly though they are walking the talk,

All on track and on time with the US launch, they have told us that they expect second half UK revenues to double, they are ahead of their fresh milk market share goal in Australia, infant formula is practically flying off the shelves in Australia, and they expect fresh milk exports to China to double this year.

I think this coming FY report may be a little understated by analysts with a consensus for $154M (+38%) in revenues.

I’m looking for $161M (+45%), but wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as $166M actually.

Agree totally and it should get further boost with lower fx rates with AUD (.9268) and GBP (.4696) as we speak, which is where their main growth comes from.

[NT001]

This kind of promo never does any harm:

https://www.yahoo.com/beauty/the-beauty-benefits-of-your-morning-hot-cup-119382918433.html

[airedale]

The price of the tea takes my breath away. Up to $43/ounce. But one ingests the whole tea leaf so they say. I chew the tea leaves from my green tea. Much more economical:)
But a good plug for A2 milk.

[Ginger_steps_]

Another on the ground observation for ya'll, from Australia. Our local IGA now stocks a2 (they only stock 4 milk brands) and sell for Coles old price of $4.99 (Coles now sell for $4.70). I can only see it as a positive when IGA's in towns of populations around 5000 stock a2 as one of their four fresh milk offerings :)

[MAC]

Will be interesting to see these presentations land next week, perhaps some further progress to be reported.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/asx-spotlight-asia/

http://www.asx.com.au/spotlight/asia/

[gv1]

Looks like one to watch....investor presentation in Asia.

[Sideshow Bob]

Was a news article on channel 9 news (I think) in Australia night before last about Australian food companies targeting the US. At least half the article was on A2 and exhibiting at a natural food show in LA currently.

I like how they emphasised Australian, but is understandable I guess.

Bought some in Aldi yesterday at $4.69 for a 2L.

[blobbles]

We certainly won’t see meaningful sales form the US in the next report, it’s not only earlier than ATM have planned for, but there are only a couple of months of US activity within the reporting period.

Certainly though they are walking the talk,

All on track and on time with the US launch, they have told us that they expect second half UK revenues to double, they are ahead of their fresh milk market share goal in Australia, infant formula is practically flying off the shelves in Australia, and they expect fresh milk exports to China to double this year.

I think this coming FY report may be a little understated by analysts with a consensus for $154M (+38%) in revenues.

I’m looking for $161M (+45%), but wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as $166M actually.

Come on MAC, I am looking at $175m! OK OK, might be a little optimistic :-), but it would be nice. Analyst consensus at $154m is a bit underdone, considering this is where they were at HY. HY was 77m, 160m hopefully should be in the bag as growth continues, more like $165m. A little revenue from the other markets (China should be fresh milk ~1.5m L * $3 = $4.5m, formula ~$3m, UK ~ 1m L * $3 = $3m, USA ~50k * $3 = 0.15m). So I am hoping for $175m (+57%).

[sb9]

Big turnover day on both NZX and ASX.

[see weed]

True or false. If farmers changed their herds over to a2, then they would not have to worry about the ever changing a1 milk price.

[RGR367]

True or false. If farmers changed their herds over to a2, then they would not have to worry about the ever changing a1 milk price.

Maybe but they have to worry first how much gonna cost them to change over.

[drcjp]

Shenanigans today imo. Fickle fingered financiers in front of slithering sly sellers pretty clearly in their perfectly planned positions. (apologies to Dr Seuss)

[winner69]

Shenanigans today imo. Fickle fingered financiers in front of slithering sly sellers pretty clearly in their perfectly planned positions. (apologies to Dr Seuss)

Certainly was ..... that was a big off load after 5 wasn't it. Presume an offload as the seller had to take .5 cent less

Winder who bought

[babymonster]

Got me worry each time the sp goes below 50c. It usually bounce back quickly but this time big volume..

[drcjp]

Certainly was ..... that was a big off load after 5 wasn't it. Presume an offload as the seller had to take .5 cent less

Winder who bought

Well, hopefully it will come through on a SSH but it may not. I'm convinced there is a deliberately executed plan going on here; careful price control between NZ50-54c, large dumps at 5PM Fri, esp. on long weekends like this one. If its FirstNZCapital releasing the end stages of their holding now they have the PEB rights coming up; it can;t go on forever though. Whatever way you cut it, with a growth company in a biotech/milk environ that is independent of the dairy auction shenanigans, its going to look pretty attractive post-Aug if they hit t/o targets.

[see weed]

Certainly was ..... that was a big off load after 5 wasn't it. Presume an offload as the seller had to take .5 cent less

Winder who bought

22,548,850 went through. Another 1,876,370 waiting at .485c one seller. Anyone out there (share traders) buying at these levels?

[ziggy415]

22,548,850 went through. Another 1,876,370 waiting at .485c one seller. Anyone out there (share traders) buying at these levels?
end of year window dressing...is this the final off load by who ever was selling

[winner69]

The last time there was big dump at the end of a week the price rebounded from mid 40s to 60 nets odd.

I'm having a quick punt ....punt being the word.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I think the dump may be related to portfolio rebalancing. ATM is being removed from the NZX50

This is false as far as I'm aware.

The increase in volume was due to a MSCI index change. ATM moved from the small cap index to the micro cap index as its market capitalisation has dropped. Should be back to normal tomorrow.

[Snoopy]

I think the dump may be related to portfolio rebalancing. ATM is being removed from the NZX50


Are you sure about that noodles? I have been looking through the NZX website at the NZX 50.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/indices/NZ50

Some of the smaller players are listed as follows:

1/ Pacific Edge Biotechnology is capitalised at $210.287m (0.66c share price, admittedly pre recapitalisation).
2/ Market capitalisation of Steel & Tube (STU) is only $257.431m ($2.91 share price).
3/ Skellerup is sitting at $260.288m ($1.35 share price).
4/ Kathmandu is capitalised at $278.049m ($1.38 share price)
5/ The NZX itself is capitalised at $300.821m ($1.14 share price).
6/ ATM market capitalisation is $320.132m, with a 48.5c share price.

OK I know that promotion/relegation isn't only based on the total market capitalisation. There are free float issues and timing issues. But on the face of things there are five other companies more likely to be kicked out of the NZX50 before ATM faces the chop.

SNOOPY

[noodles]

Are you sure about that noodles? I have been looking through the NZX website at the NZX 50.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/indices/NZ50

Some of the smaller players are listed as follows:

1/ Pacific Edge Biotechnology is capitalised at $210.287m (0.66c share price, admittedly pre recapitalisation).
2/ Market capitalisation of Steel & Tube (STU) is only $257.431m ($2.91 share price).
3/ Skellerup is sitting at $260.288m ($1.35 share price).
4/ Kathmandu is capitalised at $278.049m ($1.38 share price)
5/ The NZX itself is capitalised at $300.821m ($1.14 share price).
6/ ATM market capitalisation is $320.132m, with a 48.5c share price.

OK I know that promotion/relegation isn't only based on the total market capitalisation. There are free float issues and timing issues. But on the face of things there are five other companies more likely to be kicked out of the NZX50 before ATM faces the chop.

SNOOPY
I am incorrect. In fact it is the MSCI small cap index.

[winner69]

That special milk Danny now drinking sure working

And Deans insisted: "Cipriani was great. He would have loved that ride he got out there and it took his chance really well. He's clearly a bloke who has worked really hard over a long period of time.


"That's a good indicator of where he is at and all credit to him. I expect Stuart will be looking at him and the fact he made 100 percent off his boot today will not do him any harm.

"He had the experience of playing club rugby in Australia for a while which is good grounding, and he's come back well from that and knuckled down"
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/england-rugby/robbie-deans-shellshocked-after-record-barbarians-shellacking-20150601-ghdvm0.html

[Sideshow Bob]

A2 milk wasn't the only thing Danny was drinking......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11458449

[winner69]

A2 milk wasn't the only thing Danny was drinking......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11458449

Oh dear ....just in case we play England in World Cup final I hope the new English coach doesn't pick him. On his day he's better tHan Carter/Barrett and the final just be his big day.

England rugby seems to full of big egos, idiots and thugs

Hope Danny just went home and a big glass of milk.

[ziggy415]

The last time there was big dump at the end of a week the price rebounded from mid 40s to 60 nets odd.

I'm having a quick punt ....punt being the word.

and the horses are in the home strait and winner 69 has been pulled to the outside...the jockeys gone for the whip but winner 69 has run wide...(doesn,t like getting canned)...will the winning post come to soon....will the punt come off....or will fido be well fed tonite......he he ..looking ok so far winner

[Harrie]

Predictably, still in the 49c to 53c range waiting for confirmation of sales trend in target markets.

Early days in the states but the fact that many stores are stocking it is a really good sign, however, stocking it and selling it are two different measures of success. A whiff of expected or better than expected sales in all target markets will add at least another 10c to the SP in a days trading. Less than expected will take it to 43c because it may not necessarily confirm a trend, rather a factor of not knowing where it is available.
A shameless little short term prediction for what it is worth!

[ziggy415]

Predictably, still in the 49c to 53c range waiting for confirmation of sales trend in target markets.

Early days in the states but the fact that many stores are stocking it is a really good sign, however, stocking it and selling it are two different measures of success. A whiff of expected or better than expected sales in all target markets will add at least another 10c to the SP in a days trading. Less than expected will take it to 43c because it may not necessarily confirm a trend, rather a factor of not knowing where it is available.
A shameless little short term prediction for what it is worth!
so you reckon winners theory is a load of horse manure do you......

[winner69]

so you reckon winners theory is a load of horse manure do you......

Watching the 53 mark closely but would hate to miss out on this 10 cent rise that's coming up

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Might be gearing up for another crack at that 58 cent resistance? Aussie listing showed big strength today.

[see weed]

Might be gearing up for another crack at that 58 cent resistance? Aussie listing showed big strength today.

It sure did. Over 37,000,000 through ATM in 3 days. Somethings going on.If they run out of shares to sell then price might go well over 60c

[drcjp]

Indeed to all points above, it has the feel of a "reset" similar to late 2012. One would also expect some SSH notices soon as well given the volumes being unloaded?

[bull....]

big volumes probably just to do with there presentations, isn't acc selling out?

[Harrie]

so you reckon winners theory is a load of horse manure do you......

Not at all Ziggy. I reckon w69 is on the money. As he says its a "punt" its just that he has punted on the upside after weighing up the balance of probabilities. Its still a call in the light of no new news regarding increasing sales volumes in target markets. Whether that call is based on TA or FA or gut feel doesn't matter its still a "punt"
No new news in the presentation re emerging markets other than a breakdown of ownership between Australia and NZ and an increase in the number of shareholders. Big activity recently, lets see what evolves today.

[iceman]

Not at all Ziggy. I reckon w69 is on the money. As he says its a "punt" its just that he has punted on the upside after weighing up the balance of probabilities. Its still a call in the light of no new news regarding increasing sales volumes in target markets. Whether that call is based on TA or FA or gut feel doesn't matter its still a "punt"
No new news in the presentation re emerging markets other than a breakdown of ownership between Australia and NZ and an increase in the number of shareholders. Big activity recently, lets see what evolves today.

Well we certainly have a good strong start to the trading day. I agree with you Harrie that there is no new operational detail in the presentations to drive this increase in price and demand. Must be some rumours flying somewhere though !

[Nasi Goreng]

Nice pop with good volumes, maybe new players buying into the story. I'm getting deja vu though.. will the sellers win this battle when it gets to 58c?

[bull....]

the range held again, 4x juicy trading range

[sb9]

Well, breached the 57c mark....not much on offer after that...wonder where it might finish up today.

Guess it all depends when ASX opens....

[robbo24]

The last time there was big dump at the end of a week the price rebounded from mid 40s to 60 nets odd.

I'm having a quick punt ....punt being the word.

Well done Winner69!

[ziggy415]

Not at all Ziggy. I reckon w69 is on the money. As he says its a "punt" its just that he has punted on the upside after weighing up the balance of probabilities. Its still a call in the light of no new news regarding increasing sales volumes in target markets. Whether that call is based on TA or FA or gut feel doesn't matter its still a "punt"
No new news in the presentation re emerging markets other than a breakdown of ownership between Australia and NZ and an increase in the number of shareholders. Big activity recently, lets see what evolves today.
Just a bit of good banter Harrie...your right there really was nothing new in the presentations so why the change in sentiment...even if the large sellers has finished i cant see why the sudden turn around, so maybe some news is coming...bearing in mind that all shareholders get the same information at the same time

[see weed]

Well done Winner69!

YE haaaaa, up $26,000 in last few days and back in the green again:D:t_up:

[Harrie]

Rumour, fact or short term trading speculation?
in my experience sales numbers are kept pretty close to the chest at a2mc and most other companies for that matter, otherwise a pop like this may suggest insider trading. If its pure speculation then we may see a settling back to the 49c to 53c range pending further confirmation of sales trends released to the market at the next update.

[sb9]

bearing in mind that all shareholders get the same information at the same time

Mind you, some big players may have inside running..albeit in the form of snippets or rumours..

[sb9]

YE haaaaa, up $26,000 in last few days and back in the green again:D:t_up:

Well done, i'm just shy of cent or two to be back in green...

[neyney2010]

Well done, i'm just shy of cent or two to be back in green...


Me Too :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

YE haaaaa, up $26,000 in last few days and back in the green again:D:t_up:

Reward for subtly hanging around the milk chiller in supermarkets soft walking shopping mums to the A2 range;)

[robbo24]

Well done, i'm just shy of cent or two to be back in green...

And this, my friends, is how resistance works :D

[Harrie]

Buying pressure coming from NZ, plenty of selling pressure in Aussy at A0.52c

[see weed]

Has anyone heard of the a2 milk shuffle? It happens when in the supermarket milk department, and shuffling a one row of a2 into 2 or 3 rows. Or shuffling 2 rows of a2 into 4 or 5 rows. It makes a wider presentation and looks very impressive:)

[see weed]

Boy o boy 6,000,000 through today so far, lot more buyers than sellers at the moment.

[Harrie]

not to rain on your parade see weed but its probably only a new batch of fresh stock they are making room for. Nevertheless better that way rather than the reverse eh!
Wonder what the 5pm boys are going to do tonight. Looks quite stable around 56 to 57 at the mo. At that level above the 30 and 60 day MA over the last year so suspect the TA boys having a go with no further info. Suspect NZ$0.53 to NZ$0.54 after 5pm tonight.

[see weed]

Looks like David Mair has just accumulated 500,000 more shares at .485c. recently. Now they are up about $37,000 so far.:cool: This week.

[Harrie]

That smells a little like insider trading to me. Of anyone, he will have a fairly good knowledge of what is going on in so far as early sales success, and the market probably will be aware that he has that knowledge. I know 500k shares is not a lot in terms of total no of shares on issue but he doesn't strike me as stupid even for $250k odd. I'm inclined to move my range now from $0.49 to $0.53 to NZ$0.51 to $0.56 until any further positive news comes out.

[see weed]

That smells a little like insider trading to me. Of anyone, he will have a fairly good knowledge of what is going on in so far as early sales success, and the market probably will be aware that he has that knowledge. I know 500k shares is not a lot in terms of total no of shares on issue but he doesn't strike me as stupid even for $250k odd. I'm inclined to move my range now from $0.49 to $0.53 to NZ$0.51 to $0.56 until any further positive news comes out.
SP up 15% this week, David Mair adds 500,000 to his holding, over 43,000,000 shares traded on no new news. How much will sp go up on good news? .58c to .63c?

[see weed]

not to rain on your parade see weed but its probably only a new batch of fresh stock they are making room for. Nevertheless better that way rather than the reverse eh!
Wonder what the 5pm boys are going to do tonight. Looks quite stable around 56 to 57 at the mo. At that level above the 30 and 60 day MA over the last year so suspect the TA boys having a go with no further info. Suspect NZ$0.53 to NZ$0.54 after 5pm tonight.

Are the 5 o'clock boys still around? They may have run out of shares to sell. Me thinks 55c 56c tonight with no news.

[sb9]

My guess is 58c at close, its 53c on ASX at the moment.

[Harrie]

Are the 5 o'clock boys still around? They may have run out of shares to sell. Me thinks 55c 56c tonight with no news.

Yes see weed that's in my range. I think 0.58 is pushing it though. According to the TA boys 0.58 is a point which coincides with longer term 30 and 60 day MA's. Not being a TA it does seem to be a pivot point if it can hold for a while above that number.
Looking for 0.63 to get into the green again....

[see weed]

My guess is 58c at close, its 53c on ASX at the moment.

I think you maybe close with all those buyers, and sellers getting thin.

[winner69]

And this, my friends, is how resistance works :D

Always pay to keep an eye on those things when 'punting' eh my friend

[see weed]

Someone took out all the 57c sellers well after 5pm. They were still disappearing at 5.08pm. So where to from here? 44,500,000 plus traded this last week.

[vin]

Just about in the green after that ^_^ Ha

[blobbles]

This is my take on whats happening...

For about 6 months there has been a big seller flooding the market, seemingly taking any offer above 45c, letting the SP recover a little then flooding the market again.

I would say on Tuesday, the big seller has either got rid of everything they wanted to sell or sold enough that they decided they can take a big break.

The result has been nobody has really been interested in buying. Why buy when next week the big seller will push it lower?

Suddenly the big seller is gone. People have woken up and realised that without the big seller, there is likely only one way for the SP to go. This creates buying pressure as they all try and get in before "the big rise". The price might drop a little now and scare a few of them out, but medium term I see it heading North, hopefully up to fair value (80c ish by my reckoning). A good full year result and we should see my fair value unless the big buyer still has more to sell...

[Harrie]

In the absence of no new news I tend to believe that too blobbles, however I also think that moving up the best part of 10% on the day is not possible on that fact alone. Here are a couple of other factors IMO.
1. looking at the two presentations a2mc has made recently appear to be pretty slick. They look well organised, and their vision for the company is strong and believable
2. David Mair has provided a bit of a signal adding to his already sizeable parcel. Needs to be careful he does not attract too much attention to buying larger volumes for obvious reasons.

still a few cents short of my ABP

[NT001]

This is my take on whats happening...For about 6 months there has been a big seller flooding the market, seemingly taking any offer above 45c, letting the SP recover a little then flooding the market again.

...Suddenly the big seller is gone. People have woken up and realised that without the big seller, there is likely only one way for the SP to go. This creates buying pressure as they all try and get in before "the big rise".

I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.

My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.

But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.

I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.

[iceman]

I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.

My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.

But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.

I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.

I concur with all of that. I think there is more to this than a big seller having exited and it has to relate to the recent presentations. Like harry says, they are slick, which is all fine. But I can not really see any meaningful new information in there for those of us that have been following ATM for a while. But they have possibly made presentations to different investors than they have before and sparked some interest and put ATM on those guys radar screens.

I do think the 2015 financials are important, but only so far as to give us an idea of how the implementation of their strategy is going, particularly UK, China and USA.

[ziggy415]

3 mill gone thru already this morn...big buyer but equally big seller.....still no holder notification just adds to the puzzle......can we expect a levelling off being its a friday.......wonder if 69 is expecting big dump today

[drcjp]

3 mill gone thru already this morn...big buyer but equally big seller.....still no holder notification just adds to the puzzle......can we expect a levelling off being its a friday.......wonder if 69 is expecting big dump today

Well, A2 wanted more liquidity and they certainly seem to have it this week!

[nextbigthing]

What makes you think this time they've finished? Everyone said that last time when a massive volume went through and it was back to the usual.

I hope they have finished. But who knows?

[Harrie]

Agree with all that Iceman, no new news for ATM followers, but huge exposure to investor groups who have just had their lights turned on by a well articulated presentation on aims objectives, scientific substance, brand building aspirations and strategies going forward.

That's the hype, the market now need to see the substance, or a positive trajectory.

Still believe there are big sellers out there, but on the basis of a sudden rush of demand sellers are likely to be considering either stepping back and selling at a higher price or reassessing the maintenance of their current exposure.

Written b4 the market opened. Will be an interesting day

[ziggy415]

I seem to remember one poster saying that amp on their calculation still had 32 mill shares left so if it is amp squaring up this last week must have seen that job done and dusted

[Harrie]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.

Looking at what is going on and the sudden burst of demand combined with a potential retraction of selling pressure I am going to shift my trading range slightly now from $0.53c to $0.58c pending trend confirmation.

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

[NT001]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.... (but)

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

I agree that the only obvious explanation is the new interest generated by the briefings, but I think it's a bit harsh to say the SP movement is based only on "speculation" and no "hard data". The company produces financials at the appropriate times, and they are trending in the right direction. Of course we're all impatient to see the FY15 numbers.

But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers. This is concrete evidence of momentum, competence and a well thought-out strategy, factors that big investors are professionally able to evaluate. I wouldn't call that speculation, even though there's a speculative element involved, as with all investments.

Even if we already had the FY data, any investment in a2MC would still have to be based largely on an assessment of the company's future, and it's good to see Babidge is out there with the kind of info investors need. It would be great if we had a transcript of the Q&A that followed his briefings, and if we knew who attended. It would also be fascinating to see an update in a month's time of the details given in his presentation about the distribution of shareholdings.

[skid]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.

Looking at what is going on and the sudden burst of demand combined with a potential retraction of selling pressure I am going to shift my trading range slightly now from $0.53c to $0.58c pending trend confirmation.

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

I agree with the importance of hard data--doesnt have to be earth shattering but should be pointing in the right direction.

Having said that,it may well have found its realistic level now ,while being undervalued from the selling before.

Alot more happy campers around now--congrats to all who benefited.

[Harrie]

Slight correction NT. We know that a2mc produce hard data, but I am referring to hard data not yet known to the market which we probably won't get until FY15 report. The "speculation" is the anticipation that all the positives you mention above become a reality

"But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers". Sorry NT but that is speculation. The fact that it is in all those stores and among all those consumers may say more about an effective distribution story than actual sales. The China formula story is not a given yet either. I accept though that its still positive and believe me I really hope it all comes to fruition. I'm reading what the market is thinking right now..or trying to.

[winner69]

So Milford have sold heaps

Must have looked at their valuations and said **** never really worth 90 cents or what it was and manage the risk accordingly. Mac used Milford implied valuation as validation for his numbers

But then they do still have nearly 10%

[Harrie]

Pleased about that W69 because I know a bit about how fund managers operate. They were donkey deep into ATM and I suspect that ATM was a focus of the FMA 's investigation in market manipulation.
That in conjunction with being shafted on the SP last year didn't look good in the kiwisaver quarterly performance stats so it then became an excercise in risk minimisation and while ATM had all the promise of future growth potential it could never be guaranteed so out the door they went.
Why am I happy about that? Right decision for them but for the wrong reasons. Concentration on short term performance.
Suspect they will keep some but not sure how many. Suggest around 5 to 8 million shares.
More selling to be done but I am encouraged by higher demand.
Don't expect ACC or NZSF to be sellers.

[NT001]

Let's agree to disagree, Harrie. The company has detailed its strategy and its implementation thereof to potential investors, who can make of it what they will, using their presumed analytical experience. I think by your definition, any progress report is speculation. Even if the very latest financials ("hard data") were fully disclosed to these potential investors, opinions would vary as to what they really meant, and no one can know what next year's financials will show. There is always an element of uncertainty which is the spice of investment, but I think the term speculation belittles the information already available to enable an investment decision to be made. However, it's a semantic point, not worth too much arguing over. Cheers.

[Harrie]

The company has detailed its strategy and its implementation thereof to potential investors, .... I think by your definition, any progress report is speculation.....but I think the term speculation belittles the information already available to enable an investment decision to be made. However, it's a semantic point, not worth too much arguing over. Cheers.

Speculation is not a dirty word NT. Detailed strategy and implementation plans while useful and compelling are not a substitute for results. It is therefore speculative to assume that the strategy and implementation will convert automatically into the results being aspired to. It is worth noting that a2mc has not produced a "progress" report since their last H/Y15 result. In the meantime we have to "speculate" on future performance.
At this point articulation of the strategy, the background, the IP, the knowhow, the goals and objectives have provided encouragement that there is a enhanced likelihood of success in target markets, hence the greater interest reflected in the SP recently. IMO the range will remain in the $0.53 to 0.58 range until further confirmation (and therefore a discounting of risk) that the strategy is succeeding. When Milford disappears along with any of the other non believers/risk minimisers I would see the next range going to the $0.65 mark and then on a positive FY15 result $0.76 to $0.90c depending on the strength of the result.
Cheers

[NT001]

So Milford have sold heaps. Must have looked at their valuations and said **** never really worth 90 cents or what it was.
But then they do still have nearly 10%

According to their SSH Notice they sold 8,855,200 shares for $4,609,509.50 which by my calculation means an average SP of 53.257c. That must have hurt.

On Milford's website, the latest monthly report on their Active Growth Fund by Brian Gaynor as portfolio manager reports that "The major negative New Zealand contributors during April were Orion Health, a2 Milk and Xero."

[Lola]

According to their SSH Notice they sold 8,855,200 shares for $4,609,509.50 which by my calculation means an average SP of 53.257c. That must have hurt.

On Milford's website, the latest monthly report on their Active Growth Fund by Brian Gaynor as portfolio manager reports that "The major negative New Zealand contributors during April were Orion Health, a2 Milk and Xero."

Selling by Milfie probably more to do with fallout from the still yet unresolved FMA " investigation" rather than fundamentals of ATM. Actually what's happened to the "investigation".? Must be another lost file or perhaps lack of resolve within the Department to push on with whatever it is about.

[bull....]

time to head back down to the bottom of the range again and reload maybe:t_up:

[Harrie]

yes one gets the felling that this investigation is dying a slow death and end result will be a warning and smack on the hand.
Milfies sell down of ATM has nothing to do with the investigation.

Yes I agree Snapiti, that Milfords ATM sell down is nothing to do with the FMA "manipulation" enquiry, but that's not to say that ATM is not the subject of that enquiry. I posted some time ago that I believe it would come to nothing. The FMA will not have any "hard data" be able to prove anything, its too ethereal and nebulous.
IMO the sell down is a risk minimisation strategy, nothing more. Its just a question now of how many more to sell. 10% is a lot to get rid of, but unlikely they will dispose of all of them. Great opportunity to buy if you believe in ATM's long term success if it goes down to the lower end of the $0.53 to 0.58 range.

[Harrie]

"The FMA said more than two months ago it would conclude (http://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/nz-super-starts-beauty-parade-explains-milford-mandate-holding-pattern/) the “final [Milford] investigation steps in the next few weeks”....yeah ...right!
highly paid bureaucratic buffoons?

[drcjp]

Slight lifting of the curtain: https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/265433
The Perich bro's usually get what they want and its probably a good sign.
Thought something like this was due - onwards Cap'n :).

[Lola]

Yes I agree Snapiti, that Milfords ATM sell down is nothing to do with the FMA "manipulation" enquiry, but that's not to say that ATM is not the subject of that enquiry. I posted some time ago that I believe it would come to nothing. The FMA will not have any "hard data" be able to prove anything, its too ethereal and nebulous.
IMO the sell down is a risk minimisation strategy, nothing more. Its just a question now of how many more to sell. 10% is a lot to get rid of, but unlikely they will dispose of all of them. Great opportunity to buy if you believe in ATM's long term success if it goes down to the lower end of the $0.53 to 0.58 range.

Well if it does that and comes to nothing watch out for sparks to fly. Milfie might be carrying some value destruction.
Seems to me FMA could be between the rock and a hard place.

The Irish dont just let bygones be you know.

[Harrie]

Well if it does that and comes to nothing watch out for sparks to fly. Milfie might be carrying some value destruction.
Seems to me FMA could be between the rock and a hard place.

The Irish dont just let bygones be you know.

The worst that could happen is that Milford lose its kiwisaver status. This happened in a similar case to Hulich in 2009 when they also manipulated the market to make their returns look better even though this was to the advantage of the members. The FMA may have dug a hole for themselves here because a consistent ruling to the Hulich case would see the same treatment.
If the FMA did this they could cause an unintended forced manipulation of another kind because Milfords assets would be need to be either distributed among the 9 kiwisaver default providers or sold to another kiwisaver provider. In the Hulich case Fisher funds purchased them. Irrespective of this, whoever purchased the assets will need to decide whether to keep or dispose the shares they end up with.

[Harrie]

Here is a little clarification issue for you to sort out for me NT

I am presuming that the Perich boys own 100% of Arrovest pty Ltd. The disclosure doc tells us that Arrovest owns more than 20% of Freedom Foods.(FF)
On this basis FF owns 17.831% of ATM therefore Arrovest effectively owns at least 3.56% of ATM plus the recent purchase of 6.9 mil shares (at A$0.47) representing a direct 1.318% of ATM. Therefore effectively Arrovest own at least 4.88% of ATM.
I am assuming that because Arrovest has over a 20% interest in a company that has over a 5% interest in a NZ listed security that FF has to be pulled into the equation. I don't see that FF has effectively increased its stake?
Do you have any insights into this?

[winner69]

Here is a little clarification issue for you to sort out for me NT

I am presuming that the Perich boys own 100% of Arrovest pty Ltd. The disclosure doc tells us that Arrovest owns more than 20% of Freedom Foods.(FF)
On this basis FF owns 17.831% of ATM therefore Arrovest effectively owns at least 3.56% of ATM plus the recent purchase of 6.9 mil shares (at A$0.47) representing a direct 1.318% of ATM. Therefore effectively Arrovest own at least 4.88% of ATM.
I am assuming that because Arrovest has over a 20% interest in a company that has over a 5% interest in a NZ listed security that FF has to be pulled into the equation. I don't see that FF has effectively increased its stake?
Do you have any insights into this?

I think you are saying that Arrovest has a relevant interest of 19.1% even though only own 1.3% .......yes?

Bit like a lot of those disclosures for David Mair ......he doesn't directly own those shares but has an interest in that Trudt company that does.

Nonetheless interesting, maybe signals a stronger intent from freedom than the usual we could sell sometime

[Harrie]

"relevant" is obviously the operative word W69.
As drcjp has said, what the Perich boys want, they get. The fact that they have made this move I think is extremely positive for ATM going forward, especially with their developing distribution networks in China
I wonder why they have done it through Arrovest rather than FF Though?

[see weed]

"relevant" is obviously the operative word W69.
As drcjp has said, what the Perich boys want, they get. The fact that they have made this move I think is extremely positive for ATM going forward, especially with their developing distribution networks in China
I wonder why they have done it through Arrovest rather than FF Though?

They may not want anybody to know, and make a big fuss. So gaining more of a2Milk company in a different name. After a while they may get to 50% in different names then make a take over bid of 65c to 70c;)

[ziggy415]

They may not want anybody to know, and make a big fuss. So gaining more of a2Milk company in a different name. After a while they may get to 50% in different names then make a take over bid of 65c to 70c;)
20% is all they can go to under any names then they have to make an offer to all shareholders.....sounds like you will take 65 cents for all your holdings...(10% last time i looked ).....where,s mac he would cringe at anything less than $1.50

[Harrie]

20% is all they can go to under any names then they have to make an offer to all shareholders.....sounds like you will take 65 cents for all your holdings...(10% last time i looked ).....where,s mac he would cringe at anything less than $1.50

What about a "relevant" interest over 20% Ziggy? ....offer to all shareholders?

[Kirk]

China sales doing really well. http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-ssh-notice-milford-asset-management-limited.2531399/page-5?post_id=15439739#.VXeFHc-qpBc

[sb9]

Looks like it'll break 60c in near term...just my gut feel.

[NT001]

Here is a little clarification issue for you to sort out for me NT

I am presuming that the Perich boys own 100% of Arrovest pty Ltd. The disclosure doc tells us that Arrovest owns more than 20% of Freedom Foods.(FF)
On this basis FF owns 17.831% of ATM therefore Arrovest effectively owns at least 3.56% of ATM plus the recent purchase of 6.9 mil shares (at A$0.47) representing a direct 1.318% of ATM. Therefore effectively Arrovest own at least 4.88% of ATM.
I am assuming that because Arrovest has over a 20% interest in a company that has over a 5% interest in a NZ listed security that FF has to be pulled into the equation. I don't see that FF has effectively increased its stake?
Do you have any insights into this?

I have to say this announcement had me scratching my head. I think Ziggy's right about the 20% interest but don't know at what point a takeover might be on. Neither FF nor Perich/Arrovest talk much about their interest in a2MC, and a2MC has not been mentioned as being in any way a party to the Perich/FF 50-year relationship recently formed with major Chinese interests. Don't know whether this latest development is good or bad, or what these Aussies would have to gain by a bigger stake in a2MC.

[winner69]

And this, my friends, is how resistance works :D

Never a truer word Robbo

Do you ever think it will become support? One day maybe?

[winner69]

Milk company sues the ABC over The Checkout

http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/milk-company-sues-the-abc-over-the-checkout-20150610-ghkzjp.html

[Xerof]

Executive producer of The Checkout, Julian Morrow, said: "Even just hearing about the legal action gives me a feeling of discomfort in my tummy, and I can't say if drinking A2 Milk would help with that at all."

that'll go down like a cup of cold sick

[Kirk]

This will be great provide A2M win the case. Great publicity assuming as a potential remedy A2 also request a public apology

[NT001]

This will be great provided A2M win the case. Great publicity assuming as a potential remedy A2 also request a public apology

Seems like the defence argument is going to pretty much be that it's a comedy show and everyone who watches it knows it's not to be taken entirely literally and seriously. But I can't see how that would work, especially when they put the show up on the Net where it would be Googled and viewed by people all round the world, many of whom will take it as serious investigative journalism and will assume it's all true unless the company objects and the producers are forced to retract and apologise.

Unfortunately the company seemed not to handle the situation very well at the time, and it's not clear how much they were the victims of an ambush and unfair tactics. The issue in defemation terms is not simply whether the programme was "balanced". To achieve "balance" you only have to include the company's denial, which leaves viewers thinking "well the company would deny it wouldn't they", and the programme kind of did this. What was really needed was for the programme to make clear at the end of the day that the allegations against a2MC were wrong.

Another problem is that however strong a case you have, there's no certainty. Judges sometimes go mad in cases like this. It's not clear if this one will go before a jury, which could be even worse if the jurors happen to think it was all just a hilarious joke and the victim was an upstart NZ company that's interfering in the Australian dairy market so it deserves what's come.

Still, I do believe taking the case to court is the right thing to do. It'll give the company a chance to bring the truth out in the course of evidence.

I wonder if the programme's legal costs and any damages awarded will be picked up by Dairy Australia. That wouldn't surprise me one bit. It did seem to me that DA's helpful hand was fairly obvious in the programme itself.

[NT001]

I'm a little puzzled that a2MC is pursuing the ABC under Australia's Consumer Protection Law rather than suing for defamation, especially as the Consumer Protection Law specifically provides the ABC with a carte blanche exemption from being pursued in relation to programmes it has broadcast in the normal course of programme broadcasting. The Consumer Protection Law does not provide for penalties, as far as I can see.

It's not clear why the ABC is granted such an exemption allowing it to mislead and deceive the public, with no comeback by parties that are adversely affected or by the public that has been misled or deceived.

But this exemption does not protect the ABC with regard to actions it has taken that are not broadcasting per se. In this case it is argued that the ABC went further by promoting the offending programme via the Internet.

Its all rather esoteric, but here are the relevant provisions:

18 Misleading or deceptive conduct
(1) A person (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s152ac.html#person) must not, in trade or commerce, engage in conduct that is misleading or deceptive or is likely to mislead or deceive.
...

19 Application of this Part to information providers (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s44b.html#provider)
(1) This Part does not apply (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s150a.html#apply) to a publication of matter by an information provider (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s44b.html#provider) if ...
(b) the information provider (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s44b.html#provider) is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s130.html#corporation) ... (and) the publication was by way of a radio or television broadcast by the information provider (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/caca2010265/s44b.html#provider).

[winner69]

At least the the program achieving its aim - Last year, Mr Morrow said: "One of our aims for this series is to get a legal action in every single one of the states and territories in Australia. It seems like a crazy dream, but I believe we can achieve it."

Good one

[drcjp]

I never cease to be amazed at the conservative stance of business on issues like this.

What they should be doing is making a spoof video on YouTube with a couple of other companies who are also sueing "The Checkout" and take the absolute Pi$$ out of that program .... make comments like watching "the Checkout" will cause your piles to spasm and bring on early dementia from cynical attitudes.

Of course that'll never happen, but God it would funny if business behaved more like that and bought the bloody media back down to earth. Frank Zappa's specific quote re rock journalists now applies to all journalists/media: "Rock journalism is people who can't write, interviewing people who can't talk, for people who can't read".

[winner69]

I never cease to be amazed at the conservative stance of business on issues like this.

What they should be doing is making a spoof video on YouTube with a couple of other companies who are also sueing "The Checkout" and take the absolute Pi$$ out of that program .... make comments like watching "the Checkout" will cause your piles to spasm and bring on early dementia from cynical attitudes.

Of course that'll never happen, but God it would funny if business behaved more like that and bought the bloody media back down to earth. Frank Zappa's specific quote re rock journalists now applies to all journalists/media: "Rock journalism is people who can't write, interviewing people who can't talk, for people who can't read".

Good post drcjp. Love Frank Zappa

Nobody really 'wins' in these cases

Checkout will be happy, might even improve their ratings. a2m, well who really cares.

[Clarus]

that'll go down like a cup of cold sick

Fungus the Bogeyman...takes me back...

[Harrie]

The expression "let sleeping dogs lie" would have been a better reaction by a2mc IMO. I read the accusation by a2mc to ABC TV and the letter sent back by the program. The fact is that there is plenty of anecdotal evidence supporting the proposition but no definitive scientific evidence. In law they will rely on scientific evidence and fact. Not a good move. In fact if the courts support the view that the program has not legally breached advertising standards then a2mc will take a big hit. Big risk.

[winner69]

I'm a little puzzled that a2MC is pursuing the ABC under Australia's Consumer Protection Law rather than suing for defamation, .........."

Don't think companies (at least any with more than a handful of employees) can sue for defamation

[see weed]

atm sp looking strong this morning

[Kirk]

Is it correct that the lower NZ OCR goes the more appealing this stock will be (all other factors held constant)

[ziggy415]

lower kiwi $ versus the AUD very very good for ATM.

you warming to this company snap....now that Mac is incognito we need a new A2 champion.....heck you may even raise your 40 cent fair value to somewhere near macs

[winner69]

atm sp looking strong this morning
Yes most things up up today

world a happy place and lower interest rates here and watching our $ fall is good as well.

[see weed]

Look at last 6 months chart. Normally sp would start to fall back to 50c by now. Something feels different this time around, or am I counting my chickens before they hatch. Over 51,000,000 shares traded in 8 days. Three times more buyers than sellers at the moment.

[ziggy415]

well I have said in the past, on this thread, that ATM could be the next coke....is that bullish enough for you.
I did double my holdings @ 49 as the share price hit support at these levels, after buying a few at 58 on the way down.
I also ran a test on a mate of mine who does not drink milk as it gives him a crook stomach.
He did take some convincing to try it but did not feel ill after having it in a coffee.
He now use's it all the time.
Still sits in my speculative portfolio along side WYN.
I do like how they have a proven track record at going for a market and winning(Aussie).
Seems to be very well managed and I know their margins are growing as the price of milk at the farm gate gets hammered.
Really really like the way they grow the company from profit....this is very hard to find amongst growth stock.
Not totally convinced yet and shares are expensive based on fundamentals that's why it is in my speculative portfolio but in my opinion one of the best speculative stocks on the NZX.
Happy holding and believe any publicity is good publicity.

fair enough snapiti....does look to have some upside but cant see how you can have good fundamentals but still grow the company from profits....if we gain traction in the UK do we then spend profits in say France. etc..when does profit start to appear on the bottom line...being a plumber its all about the bottom line

[Harrie]

Has MAC been thrown out of the forum, if so why, or has he voluntarily exited?

[Jasemc]

Has MAC been thrown out of the forum, if so why, or has he voluntarily exited?
Depression with sp :cool:

[NT001]

The fact is that there is plenty of anecdotal evidence supporting the proposition but no definitive scientific evidence. In law they will rely on scientific evidence and fact.

I'm mystified about your repeated assertions Harrie that there is "no definitive scientific evidence". What exactly do you want "definitive scientific evidence" of, and how do you define what constitutes "definitive scientific evidence"? What would satisfy you? What is the "proposition" that you consider unproved?

There is clear proof that the A1 and A2 milk proteins are different, and no debate about that. Hundreds of scientists around the world are working on the precise implications of this with regard to medical conditions such as autism, schizophrenia, milk protein intolerance, SIDS etc, not to mention digestive problems of course.

The recent Curtin trial using human subjects showed that milk drinkers react differently to A1 and A2, and more work is planned on this, using a larger subject sample and looking at further specifics. That doesn't mean the first clinical trial was inconclusive, just that the researchers want more detail. That research will go on and on. Are you disputing the results of the Curtin trial? I'm not aware of any respected scientist in this area of research who is doing so, just some non-medical trolls including certain nutritionists with ties to Dairy Australia.

Research papers published in peer-reviewed scientific journals around the world, not disputed by Big Dairy or anyone else, verify that A1 milk generates a narcotic peptide in the digestive system (BCM7) that is not generated by A2 milk. That's not a matter of debate. Nor is it disputed that A2 is the natural milk produced by human mothers and other lactating mammals such as sheep, goats etc and even by cows except for a proportion in some countries such as NZ that have a gene mutation originating in European breeds.

It is also now well established, despite doubts expressed some years ago on rather spurious grounds by the European Food Safety Authority, that BCM7 can escape through the gut wall and enter the bloodstream. And from there it can enter the brain with observed harmful medical consequences that have been described in published research papers.

Are you saying this body of research, which again is undisputed, does not constitute definitive scientific evidence? What exactly do you want? There are dozens of research teams in many countries working on this line of inquiry, which shows it is a genuine area of global scientific and medical concern way beyond Australasia and a2MC, and no one is coming up with contradictory results.

Yet a2MC is carefully not making claims in this area. It is pushing a2 milk solely on the digestive issue, where there is hard scientific evidence. So what "proposition" are you saying remains unproven?

There is also the anecdotal evidence, as you mention. This of course is rejected by some scientific purists who still say anecdotal evidence has no value and should be ignored. The scientific world is now changing its view on that outdated dogma, and it is now resorted to mainly by those who can't find any other line of argument. Some medical specialists in Australia are already prescribing a switch to A2 after witnessing the anecdotal benefits attested to by scores of families in relation to medical conditions such autism.

It's true that there is no "definitive" evidence yet that BCM7 is a causal factor in type 1 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, because that will require very difficult longitudinal human studies taking decades. There's some supporting evidence, but not yet definitive. So all we can say right now is that no one has yet come up with any other credible explanation for the remarkable epidemiological correlation, discovered by a2MC's co-founder Corran McLachlan, between A1/A2 consumption and the prevalence of those diseases in countries round the world. Remember, it was well known for many decades that most of those who died of lung cancer were smokers, but it took a very long time to produce watertight evidence of a causal link.

[ziggy415]

Has MAC been thrown out of the forum, if so why, or has he voluntarily exited?

yep....him and Balance had a robust discussion......nothing untoward.... but Mr ST MOD got all bolshy and banned them....shame things get a bit flat without a little lively banter...i think mac is now talking to a few posters privately

[sommelier]

http://m.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/milk-company-sues-the-abc-over-the-checkout-20150610-ghkzjp.html

[Harrie]

..."That doesn't mean the first clinical trial was inconclusive, just that the researchers want more detail. (Curtin human trials)..."That research will go on and on."..."It's true that there is no "definitive" evidence yet that BCM7 is a causal factor in type 1 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, because that will require very difficult longitudinal human studies taking decades"

Sorry NT, I'm not personally disputing what you have said at all, I'm looking at it from a legal perspective. If you look at what I have taken from your comments above you can see that there still exists a level of research that needs to be undertaken before it can be definitively proven that A1 milk is detrimental to your health. If we were at that stage now, ATM 's SP would be well above where it is now and regular A1/A2 milk sales would be screwed. No one is arguing that there is no difference between A1 & A2 beta casein, what is still in question is can ATM scientifically prove beyond doubt that A2 milk has better health outcomes than regular milk.

[Harrie]

yep....him and Balance had a robust discussion......nothing untoward.... but Mr ST MOD got all bolshy and banned them....shame things get a bit flat without a little lively banter...i think mac is now talking to a few posters privately

Actually he has been banned from private posting as well. Tried today to do a private message but it could not be delivered.
Does anyone know if this is a suspension and if so for how long. Seems a bit harsh. In my experience MAC has been a sensible poster. If you cannot have a robust discussion, what's the point of being on the blog?

[Lola]

..."That doesn't mean the first clinical trial was inconclusive, just that the researchers want more detail. (Curtin human trials)..."That research will go on and on."..."It's true that there is no "definitive" evidence yet that BCM7 is a causal factor in type 1 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, because that will require very difficult longitudinal human studies taking decades"

Sorry NT, I'm not personally disputing what you have said at all, I'm looking at it from a legal perspective. If you look at what I have taken from your comments above you can see that there still exists a level of research that needs to be undertaken before it can be definitively proven that A1 milk is detrimental to your health. If we were at that stage now, ATM 's SP would be well above where it is now and regular A1/A2 milk sales would be screwed. No one is arguing that there is no difference between A1 & A2 beta casein, what is still in question is can ATM scientifically prove beyond doubt that A2 milk has better health outcomes than regular milk.

I have to agree with both of you. Perhaps A2MC should subject itself to a double blind placebo extensive clinical trial at Dunedin Hospital and Otago Uni and take a leaf out of the Promisia Integrative strategy to efficacy book. That company jumped that hurdle or so their recent announcement said. No harm in doing things properly if one believes in ones product.

[Harrie]

Can't disagree with that Lola. Can't see that it can be that hard to get a group of people together who "believe" they are allergic or have some other reaction to regular milk, and run a clinical trial with regular and a2 milk over time. Those who also reacted to a2 milk could be tested for lactose intolerance.
Maybe too simplistic?

[NT001]

..."Sorry NT, I'm not personally disputing what you have said at all, I'm looking at it from a legal perspective. ... There still exists a level of research that needs to be undertaken before it can be definitively proven that A1 milk is detrimental to your health. If we were at that stage now, ATM 's SP would be well above where it is now and regular A1/A2 milk sales would be screwed. No one is arguing that there is no difference between A1 & A2 beta casein, what is still in question is can ATM scientifically prove beyond doubt that A2 milk has better health outcomes than regular milk.

Thanks Harrie but I think it would be easier to prove this point in a court of law than to persuade the entrenched dairy industry and health/food safety bureaucracy who have a joint vested interest in not conceding that the dairy products currently being exported by NZ and Australia could carry health risks. Just look at the lengths of official dishonesty that both the Australian and NZ food safety authorities have gone to in order to suppress and misrepresent the findings of the Swinburn report.

As you say, the courts are interested in facts. The political bureaucracy is not, and a2MC cannot legally make claims that conflict with the position laid down by people like the NZ Food Safety Authority, that there is no food safety issue involved with A1 milk. It would be prosecuted for trying to do so.

If the scientific findings of the Swinburn report had been allowed to become the official position of the NZFSA which actually commissioned it more than a decade ago, it would have made a vast difference to a2MC's SP and market success.

That's also the reason a2MC goes through ridiculous contortions to distance itself from the dozens of research papers that have been published showing that there are certainly health risks associated with A1 milk. It publishes such papers on a special website that's hard to find and you have to accept a list of conditions if you want to read them, in order to protect a2MC from the wrath of the law put in place to protect the mainstream dairy industry.

Lola's suggestion for a larger trial is certainly a good one and I think that may be what a2MC has in mind. Probably not at OU or even in NZ, as there are too many critics who will say mates are involved. And who is to pay for this kind of research? Big trials cost big money. The Swinburn report a decade ago said more research was needed and the NZ government should support it. But the government and dairy industry weren't ever going to fund it for obvious reasons - they knew what the results would show. If a2MC funds it, it will be criticised like the Curtin trial, even though correct protocols were followed in that instance to ensure integrity. And even if funding can be found and such a trial is carried out, critics will still turn around and say "we still need more research". There's no easy answer.

[Harrie]

We are on the same page NT, but its the legal system that will decide on whether there has been a breach of advertising standards. As you say the dairy industry and the country for that matter have a vested interest in preserving the integrity of their stance and will look to the health/food safety to provide evidence. Lies and half truths aside, legally that evidence will be a bit hard to discard as its an authority that has credibility and they will claim that there is no conclusive evidence that regular milk with the A1protein creates any health issues. Conversely it is then difficult to prove that a2 only milk has better health outcomes, despite anecdotal evidence or hearsay which is unlikely to be admitted as evidence. In the legal system, despite encouraging evidence to the contrary, then it must remain a fact that a2 milk cannot conclusively be held out to claim that its health benefits are superior to that of regular milk.
I know that all exposure is good exposure but I'm not sure that the risk of taking this to court with the possibility of failure is the right move by a2mc. The consequences of losing are too great, even though they may lose for the wrong reasons. The legal system rules on proven facts.

[skid]

Its a tough rd alright --some years back Monsanto actually stopped a report about the damage that growth hormones and antibiotics caused that were found in the milk from the cows that were given these chemicals(it was cancer from memory).--I believe it talks about it in a documentary called ''the corporation''---pretty dark stuff.
Perhaps for now A2 will simply have to bring the good points to as many as possible rather than take on the big and powerful.
(Those with deep pockets will just play the continuous appeal game until their adversary runs out of money.)

Ive heard that JK has gone and signed the TPPA which is a sad day for all---(Details remain secret for 4 years)

[NT001]

We are on the same page NT, but its the legal system that will decide on whether there has been a breach of advertising standards. As you say the dairy industry and the country for that matter have a vested interest in preserving the integrity of their stance and will look to the health/food safety to provide evidence. Lies and half truths aside, legally that evidence will be a bit hard to discard as its an authority that has credibility and they will claim that there is no conclusive evidence that regular milk with the A1protein creates any health issues.

This could go on and on. Let me just say I don't think the court will just accept the official FSA line as fact. Nor would the FSA or dairy industry want to front up with their scientific experts to be cross examined on it. They normally don't allow their experts to face public questioning on this issue - with reason. If it comes down to the scientific evidence, I'm sure a2MC will win. I would hopect the court will hear evidence/submissions as to the opposing scientific claims made by a2MC and the BS statements made in the programme, because that's what this is really about.

However, I suspect the ABC will try to minimise the scientific evidence, and try to make the case turn on legal technicalities rather than scientific fact. In which case a2MC doesn't have much to lose, reputationwise.

[Harrie]

To rule on a point of law the court needs to hear both sides in detail. To do this you better believe that the FSA's scientific staff will be summons to the court and cross examined, so will all other relevant research need to be admitted. This is necessary to provide a court ruling on the issue of whether "check out" were in breach of acceptable reporting standards.
In the absence of conclusive scientific evidence the FSA will just stick to its old line. ... result...no case to answer, court dismissed!

I think its a bit of a long shot and a distraction. The best that can come of this is that a2mc is prepared to defend itself, therefore the perception is that there must be something in it.
I guess we will find out in due course NT!

[Leftfield]

I think its a bit of a long shot and a distraction. The best that can come of this is that a2mc is prepared to defend itself, therefore the perception is that there must be something in it.
I guess we will find out in due course NT!

This may never get to court….. a settlement may be negotiated. I would think ATM are well aware of all the ramifications and the fact that they are proceeding could be regarded a vote of confidence in their 'research' and 'legal advice.' Interesting times ahead.

[winner69]

I think its a bit of a long shot and a distraction. The best that can come of this is that a2mc is prepared to defend itself, therefore the perception is that there must be something in it.
I guess we will find out in due course NT!

Harrie, distraction is the key word here

Distractions generally are very costly, esp if winning as no great prize ......management and other staff better employed doing what they do best like growing the business

[skid]

Its a tough rd alright --some years back Monsanto actually stopped a report about the damage that growth hormones and antibiotics caused that were found in the milk from the cows that were given these chemicals(it was cancer from memory).--I believe it talks about it in a documentary called ''the corporation''---pretty dark stuff.
Perhaps for now A2 will simply have to bring the good points to as many as possible rather than take on the big and powerful.
(Those with deep pockets will just play the continuous appeal game until their adversary runs out of money.)

Ive heard that JK has gone and signed the TPPA which is a sad day for all---(Details remain secret for 4 years)

Correction --apparently the agreement has not been signed yet--but is close(I know its a bit of a sidebar but this could affect all kiwi exporters--all this talk of court cases made me think of it)

Long drawn out court cases can be a black hole for funds unfortunately.

Agree with winner--rather than defend or attack--its probably money better spent promoting the good points--If A2 is better --.then state it--if others want to challenge --let them.


SP has certainly improved,but its still a bit early to call it a trend-time will tell

[Harrie]

Harrie, distraction is the key word here

Distractions generally are very costly, esp if winning as no great prize ......management and other staff better employed doing what they do best like growing the business

Yes, well I think that had to do something W69. Unfortunately I have to agree with you though, its a distraction and a complete waste of time and money, not likely to go anywhere and worse could backfire. a2mc are in an unenviable position. Dammed if you do dammed if you don't.
Hopefully they can get ABC to somehow ameliorate their stance without it going to court.

[see weed]

Looks like the 5 o'clock boys are back in town. But this time around they are buying and not selling:t_up:.

[ziggy415]

Looks like the 5 o'clock boys are back in town. But this time around they are buying and not selling:t_up:.
If arrovest bought most of the 4.5 mill...then by my calcs they may be near the 20% mark...buying may dry up unless some one else is also buying

[NT001]

Looks like NZ Super Fund has been a big seller. Its total holding has gone down by 6m shares, taking it below the 5% SSH barrier.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/265762

[Harrie]

Would have thought that the NZSF would have been there for the long haul. Suppose the good news is that they have dumped 6 mil and the price has remained in the high 50's. directly after that news though the price dropped a cent, so that may have scared a few into thinking that there is more selling to come from that quarter?

[Lola]

Would have thought that the NZSF would have been there for the long haul. Suppose the good news is that they have dumped 6 mil and the price has remained in the high 50's. directly after that news though the price dropped a cent, so that may have scared a few into thinking that there is more selling to come from that quarter?

Seems the Super boys have a different view on the stock than Milfie did. By the way where's that FMA file gone:confused:??

[Harrie]

Seems the Super boys have a different view on the stock than Milfie did. By the way where's that FMA file gone:confused:??

Disappeared into the too hard basket I suspect. They may have shat in their own nest over this because I can't see how they can treat Milford any differently than the way Hulich was treated in a similar "manipulation" issue. That's a fine and losing their licence to operate as a kiwisaver provider. I doubt they will go that far though and likely come up with some politically correct bull**** to prevent that.
I think that the fact that NZSF is staying in there with a reasonable holding is a good sign though (as long as it lasts) I think they just wanted to get under the 5% threshold. Who knows!

[Lola]

Disappeared into the too hard basket I suspect. They may have shat in their own nest over this because I can't see how they can treat Milford any differently than the way Hulich was treated in a similar "manipulation" issue. That's a fine and losing their licence to operate as a kiwisaver provider. I doubt they will go that far though and likely come up with some politically correct bull**** to prevent that.
I think that the fact that NZSF is staying in there with a reasonable holding is a good sign though (as long as it lasts) I think they just wanted to get under the 5% threshold. Who knows!

Well if FMA can their goose chase , then if I was Milfie Id be mad as hell and get a QC on the job.

[kizame]

Bounced off resistance at 59 again,i wondered whether there would be a catalyst to push the stock higher,but the opposite happened yet again,could this be the most predictable trading stock at the mo,at the risk of getting egg on my face I'm going to have a go.

[Harrie]

It will remain in the $0.53 to $0.58 range (maybe 0.59 given the NZ$ depreciation) until we get some information on sales volume numbers in target markets.

[silu]

FYI Bella Katz: a2 Milk sues ABC, but still lacks evidence
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11465965

[NT001]

FYI Bella Katz: a2 Milk sues ABC, but still lacks evidence
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11465965

Bella Katz is not a scientist but a brand and marketing consultant out to promote herself or possibly to sow confusion among the public on behalf of a client (perhaps one of a2MC's rivals?). She's ignorant of the science and her opinion will count for nothing if and when the case goes to court.

[Harrie]

FYI Bella Katz: a2 Milk sues ABC, but still lacks evidence
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11465965

Inconclusive evidence does not win court cases.

[NT001]

Inconclusive evidence does not win court cases.

Well I don't think we really know at this stage who has to prove what. If ABC has to prove A2 Milk is outright BS, it might have a problem, even if it is able to prove there are still differences of opinion over some scientific details (actually there aren't many).

[see weed]

NZ First Capital getting in on the act. SSH of 33,324,572 about 5%

[sb9]

NZ First Capital getting in on the act. SSH of 33,324,572 about 5%

Good on them :t_up:

[Harrie]

Yes that's fair comment NT.

[winner69]

NZ First Capital getting in on the act. SSH of 33,324,572 about 5%

They have about 5% for a while now .... come and go over/under the 5% mark every now and again, and sometimes cant even add up properly

[NT001]

Well here we have the ABC unintentionally giving A2 milk a nice plug, which is interesting. What's more interesting is that the source is Michael Perich, which could explain the recent a2MC share transactions involving the Perich company, Arrovest.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-18/milk-exporters-hope-chafta-reduces-a2-milk-prices-in-china/6555544

The story is all-round good news for a2MC by the look of it.

[NT001]

Another story here which is actually about Synlait but mentions the premium Synlait pays to farmers who supply A2 milk for the formula market (it processes A2 infant formula for a2MC).

And the Synlait announcement of a deal to move into the US market to avoid over-relying on the China market (despite having close ties with Chinese investors and customers) is very much in line with a2MC's strategy.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/us-deal-offers-significant-premiums-synlait-suppliers-b-174304

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/265975

[bull....]

pretty obvious who don't you think? explains some of the heavy buying a few weeks back a

[longy]

well that puts the cat in with the pigeons.

Geeze... Just like that. Does any one has a slight idea of what the real value of its SP? I am intended to stay with this company for a while but now we may get a Dear John letter!!!

[longy]

pretty obvious who don't you think? explains some of the heavy buying a few weeks back a

It is hard being the little fish ayh!

[see weed]

Feel like I just won lotto:t_up::D:t_up:

[bull....]

Geeze... Just like that. Does any one has a slight idea of what the real value of its SP? I am intended to stay with this company for a while but now we may get a Dear John letter!!!

interesting no price was offered, do they really know? themselves

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not sure how I feel, I don't hold any where near as many as you but I don't want to sell. Its interesting that they have changed their wording and now say that they are in the advanced stages of planning for equity raising.

[biker]

Geeze... Just like that. Does any one has a slight idea of what the real value of its SP? I am intended to stay with this company for a while but now we may get a Dear John letter!!!

Well Craigs had a placement over a year ago at 82c so a lot of people will be looking for substantially more than that.

[winner69]

pretty obvious who don't you think? explains some of the heavy buying a few weeks back a

I knew 'nothing' when I bought a week or so ago .....the signal was that bid 'dump' ( as some put it) ---- those feeling a bit buggered ne I reckon

[winner69]

They using MAC to do the valuation ......worth $1.10 but will offer 95 cents if it goes ahead. Bit if wiggle room to go to $1

Trade buyer eh

[silu]

Pretty happy with my recent purchase at 50c. Looking closely to see what price we think is fair and then may as well sell out for other opportunities.

[Joshuatree]

well that puts the cat in with the pigeons.

A pet theory.I think its Ebos.They are branching out big into pet foods. Remember how everyone fed milk to their cats ;then we were educated that milk is bad for cats. A2 is excellent for cats(and thieving hedgehogs) and in this modern world where pets are put ahead of people; think of the millions of litres pets thruout the world can now lap up A2. personally i hate the stuff and am not convinced at all of its benefits and will be glad to get rid of my shares for a profit

[iceman]

I'm not sure how I feel, I don't hold any where near as many as you but I don't want to sell. Its interesting that they have changed their wording and now say that they are in the advanced stages of planning for equity raising.

Ditto. This has been a long term (profitable) play for me. I want to stay in for a few more years. But we will have to wait for the detail. Anything less that $1.00 would be disappointing for me.

[sb9]

Gotta love the timing of the announcement. Just a month out from FY results, must be great feelers from US and UK markets.

[bull....]

It is hard being the little fish ayh!

ya im in the same boat as acc and nz super and milford all selling out - oh well hope the rest of you holders get a good price

[Kirk]

Time to buy some more?

[nextbigthing]

Time to buy some more?

Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days. If it takes the big boys a few hours best case to get all the necessary approvals to join the fun and put some big dollars in, then will we see continued buying for a while yet?

Disc: Happy

[Jasemc]

lol....funny stuff JT
Interesting they were in advanced stage of equity raising.

[Kirk]

Any offer would surely be over the 90 cent mark given the stock was trading at the price over a year ago and the growth strategy seems to have been cemented as working with a lot of demand in China and half of the market not even getting a chance to buy a2 milk

[Nasi Goreng]

in NZD/USD terms, its pretty much the same market cap that it was a month or so ago when price was around $0.56

[mattwanz]

Could be a buying frenzy when ASX opens shortly then?

[Bjauck]

NO WAY, F**K OFF

This would be the third time this is happened to me. A promising NZ beverage company gets sold for peanuts at the beginning of its market development, and Kiwi's never get to reap the benefits of creating a world class, value added, company. It drives me nuts. And it makes me very sad. This is why we will always be a poor, insignificant little country...
The Kiwi love affair (and tax system bias) with real estate means there is precious little left over for other investments.
Disc: I am hoping to remain a LT holder in ATM

[Lola]

NO WAY, F**K OFF

This would be the third time this is happened to me. A promising NZ beverage company gets sold for peanuts at the beginning of its market development, and Kiwi's never get to reap the benefits of creating a world class, value added, company. It drives me nuts. And it makes me very sad. This is why we will always be a poor, insignificant little country.

All the little Kiwi shareholders will be going, "Oh Thank God, I can get out for break even, or a small loss - so here, take my shares. I'm sooooo grateful."

We let Montana go, then Frucor, now A2. Its got to stop. The only thing I will consider is a scrip offer if the buyer is another listed food company (Freedom?). But most likely it will be a cash offer like the others, so no existing shareholder will get the benefit of its future success.

Just knew the short selling over the last few months had an ulterior purpose!

you forgot Allflex

DIL next?

[Xerof]

Interesting they were in advanced stage of equity raising.

very.....so, it's exclusive, confidential, subject to no dilution in meantime, no price, DD yet to be done. And the board don't see a takeover as imminent......

a perfect scenario for the board to give it a few days to ramp the price, then say F off, we're doing a CR at a much higher price than last week.

Snaps was very wise to hedge his bets

It's a tough call really - you could get taken out at a lousy price relative to the long term, or you miss out on this spike, then get diluted at an 'orchestrated' price.

keep an open mind shareholders......

I dont hold, so this is an outsiders view, and unbiased

[couta1]

For those of us that bought at 90c its just a matter of hanging in and seeing what transpires as selling on this spike still realises a reasonable loss. Disc-Long term holder

[iceman]

Interesting they were in advanced stage of equity raising.

Not quite. Advance stage of PLANNING for equity raising, they say in the statement

[forest]

NO WAY, F**K OFF

This would be the third time this is happened to me. A promising NZ beverage company gets sold for peanuts at the beginning of its market development, and Kiwi's never get to reap the benefits of creating a world class, value added, company. It drives me nuts. And it makes me very sad. This is why we will always be a poor, insignificant little country.

All the little Kiwi shareholders will be going, "Oh Thank God, I can get out for break even, or a small loss - so here, take my shares. I'm sooooo grateful."

We let Montana go, then Frucor, now A2. Its got to stop. The only thing I will consider is a scrip offer if the buyer is another listed food company (Freedom?). But most likely it will be a cash offer like the others, so no existing shareholder will get the benefit of its future success.

Just knew the short selling over the last few months had an ulterior purpose!

Hi KW, maybe that quote at the bottom of post does not serves you too well.

With the nz$ going lower try a quote something like: Get drunk on Oyster bay wine and buy enough DGL shares to be overweight. ;)

[nextbigthing]

Could be a buying frenzy when ASX opens shortly then?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/warren-buffett-plans-2-billion-a-year-australian-spending-spree-20150616-ghpjd6.html

[winner69]

Feel like I just won lotto:t_up::D:t_up:

You be heaps more than $45.000 up soon seaweed, hang in there

What you going to do with your spare time when no point touting a2 in supermarkets

Spend your winnings wisely when the pay out comes

[forest]

True but it might be the best drinkable investment we can find on this island at present.

[gv1]

price probably between $1.50-$2

[winner69]

not trying to rain any ones parade but this morning announcement seems a little odd to me.
announcing a could be maybe take over offer is in the wind is not unusual however adding in the fact that they are in the late stages of preparing a cap raise as well is highly unusual and was totally unnecessary.
I wonder why they thought this was relevant....pleased I sold 1/2 my holdings this morning as no one went broke taking good profits.

Me to, a good couple of weeks work that was

Re cap raising, obviously need cash ..... Won't that get factored into what any prospective acquirer thinks the company is worth ......and hence into what any offer is worth.


Maybe we are stupid snaps and just don't get the reason for them mentioning the cap raising.

[iceman]

not trying to rain any ones parade but this morning announcement seems a little odd to me.
announcing a could be maybe take over offer is in the wind is not unusual however adding in the fact that they are in the late stages of preparing a cap raise as well is highly unusual and was totally unnecessary.
I wonder why they thought this was relevant....pleased I sold 1/2 my holdings this morning as no one went broke taking good profits.

I think this quote from KW is a great point.........
If the Board want to do a capital raising, and someone wants in - then do a bloody significant placement with shareholder approval. Dont sell the entire company.

I also like KW's suggestion but NBR reports that one of the key conditions of the proposal A2M has received is that there is no change in the number of shares on issue.

[winner69]

price probably between $1.50-$2

That's just for australia ....double that to get USA and Europe and china

[winner69]

not too stupid I hope as I only sold half my holdings this morning.

I don't think we are stupid at all snaps, I think we both very clever at how we read ATM (and others)

[Nasi Goreng]

Price now less than it was on listing day on ASX, if there is a serious bid, it will be much higher than todays price.