ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited [Archive] - Page 19

blundoon

21-10-2015, 04:03 PM

From the Australian....could only copy this little extract as its paid content.

Freedom sells down a2 Milk stake

The Perich family and its listed food group Freedom Foods have sold down a combined stake in listed milk company a2 Milk to 10.4 per cent, from 19 per cent, as Freedom conducts a capital raising this morning. Freedom sold 42.5 million a2 Milk

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/freedom-sells-down-a2-milk-stake-begins-capital-raising/story-fn91v9q3-1227576607701

The Perich family and its listed food group Freedom Foods have sold down a combined stake in listed milk company a2 Milk to 10.4 per cent, from 19 per cent, as Freedom conducts a capital raising this morning.

Freedom sold 42.5 million a2 Milk shares at NZ73c each in a block trade yesterday evening for a total of $28m.
Freedom has previously earmarked its stake in a2 as being available for sale and earlier this year made an unsolicited approach to the milk company for a potential takeover, but was rebuffed.
Freedom shares have gone into a trading halt.
Freedom is also looking to raise $53 million via a non-renouncable entitlement offer and a $12m institutional placement, to raise a total of $65m.
The raising is to fund the company’s growth strategy and the acquisition of the Popina oat-based cereals and snacks manufacturer.
Freedom said it intended to maintain a strategic stake in a2 Milk.
David Hearn, the chairman of a2 Milk, said this morning the company was pleased Freedom Foods Group had chosen to retain a strategic shareholding.
“The board and management look forward to working together with FFG and all stakeholders to continue to build the a2 business and to create increasing value for all shareholders in the future,” he said.

see weed

21-10-2015, 09:58 PM

Harrie

22-10-2015, 10:44 AM

Did freedom foods really want to buy out a2 milk? Or did they just pretend they wanted to buy it, to get sp up so they could get a better price for their recent sell down? Just my theory which I had about three or four weeks after the original expression of interest.

I think that FF just did not want to have to stump up money to maintain their % holding just to remain a minority shareholder. Would not have surprised me if the idea was to take control of the company with Deans's help and then flog it off to another buyer as a way to exit their shareholding.
FF see themselves as a natural competitor of Ballamy's, so having checked out their growing market share in China and internationally would prefer to apply funding in that market space where they believe better and faster revenue growth can be achieved.
Its a question of whether their holding of 20% in A2M would grow faster than applying funds else where. If you want to expand quickly then, as A2M is doing, initiate a CR.
The interesting part of this which IMO is interesting is that FF is still happy to hold 10.40% of A2M. That's a fair bit of confidence shown in A2M's own growth projection, given that their main motivation was to expand their own business.

Harrie

23-10-2015, 11:55 PM

A bit off message but exposure is exposure.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/23/scott-morrison-milks-china-australia-free-trade-deal-for-all-its-worth

biker

26-10-2015, 01:46 PM

The share purchase plan is due to open 3 November 2015 and will close 19 November 2015.

( for anyone interested)

Kirk

26-10-2015, 05:28 PM

Just out of interest who is going to try and purchase some under the plan and does anyone think it will have a major impact on the share price given its only 3mil shares.

Harrie

26-10-2015, 07:38 PM

Joint press conference with Russell Matheson MP, Member for Macarthur, Sydney

http://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/transcript/027-2015/

Harrie

27-10-2015, 07:11 PM

Just out of interest who is going to try and purchase some under the plan and does anyone think it will have a major impact on the share price given its only 3mil shares.

No, because it will be around $14000 odd tied up for a couple of weeks with every man and his dog wanting to get in at $0.67, and no it will have no effect on the SP given that what is offered to existing shareholders represents around 0.3 of 1% of total shares. Don't really want to end up an odd number of shares.

see weed

28-10-2015, 09:06 AM

No, because it will be around $14000 odd tied up for a couple of weeks with every man and his dog wanting to get in at $0.67, and no it will have no effect on the SP given that what is offered to existing shareholders represents around 0.3 of 1% of total shares. Don't really want to end up an odd number of shares.
And to add to this, have sold out 86% of my holding at great profit. Put funds into PGW for big div. But as ATM have stated Will not be paying divs in near future has made me decide to make this decision. Will buy more ATM if it drifts back to 55c to 65c.

blu3

30-10-2015, 03:16 PM

China ends one-child policy after 35 years (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/china-abandons-one-child-policy?CMP=soc_567).

Possibly a good news for ATM but not so good in regards to the current world overpopulation.

thestg

30-10-2015, 06:29 PM

Under the Terms & Conditions of the a2MC SPP, section 6.3 states:

6.3
If a2MC receives valid applications in excess of NZ$3,000,000, it will scale back all applications on a proportionate basis (taking into account the NZ$:A$ daily exchange rate published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on its website for the Closing Date).

Does proportionate relate to the amount of shares applied for?

i.e. No.1: $1000.00 applied for @ $0.68 = 1470 shares.

No.2: $15,000.00 applied for @ $0.68 = 22,058 shares.

If the offer is 50% over subscribed then:

No.1 will pay $500.00 & Receive 735 shares

No.2 will pay $7,500 & receive 11,029 shares

Is this correct?

see weed

30-10-2015, 09:32 PM

Looking forward to next months AGM and milk and muffins. Might even buy some more shares at 55c to 60c next year to add to the 50c average ones on hand at the moment:).

kiora

31-10-2015, 05:19 AM

How do you get onto MLN Thread?

Typed in Marlin in search box

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5352-Marlin/page18&highlight=marlin

Not too Flash

02-11-2015, 12:12 PM

Ginger_steps_

02-11-2015, 02:17 PM

will be interesting to see how the ice cream sales go - I have tried both the chocolate and vanilla now and they both taste like the cheapest ice cream on the market - was hoping for a LOT more...

iceman

03-11-2015, 01:10 PM

Where do you get the entry forms for the SPP?

You can do it online here https://events.miraqle.com/a2-milk-spp/Country-Validation/

Harrie

06-11-2015, 04:04 PM

It's ok the postman just left them in the letterbox 5 minutes ago.Thanks

Is this what this site has come to?

Crackity

06-11-2015, 04:33 PM

Is this what this site has come to?

Like neighbourly.co.nz except for people who like shares :)

airedale

09-11-2015, 09:13 PM

6 million shares through today. No drop in price. Could be someone quietly accumulating.

sb9

10-11-2015, 10:45 AM

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/north/woolworths-shoppers-photographed-with-trolleys-full-of-infant-formula-at-epping-plaza/news-story/f09ac7d0d8c5d023d42d1f7e308a3510#itm=newscomau%7Ch ome%7Cnca-homepage-masthead-feature%7C3%7Cheading%7Chomepage%7Chomepage&itmt=1447058943662

Not just Bellamy's that is out of stock as fast as its loaded in store :-)

Crank up them cows A2.

Surely, reading from the Aussies forum on hotcopper, seems as though there is huge shortage of A2 milk formula in super markets. And supply can't keep up with demand at this stage, will be interesting to see what comes out of ASM next week. My bet is it'll be quite upbeat.

stoploss

10-11-2015, 12:17 PM

Both A2 and Bellamy's have major supply shortages. Maybe because they are both niche suppliers, and internationals like Danone can easily ramp up supply into Australia whereas the little guys cant. Interesting though that the Chinese are targeting A2/BAL rather than the mainstream brands.

I did note the sign on the pallet though that had A2 on special for $24.95 - which might explain the bulk buying. I wonder if the special pricing is A2 or Woolworths determined? If A2, I don't understand why they would be discounting their price when there is a short supply. If Woolworths, then they are obviously using it as a major loss leader to get people in store (which kind of backfires if the Chinese simply clean them out in 5 minutes).

Watch the video here. Notice the big sign "Pack and Send Internationally" displayed on the front of the Chemists window :-)
http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/mother-behind-photo-of-a2-platinum-baby-formula-bulk-buy-speaks-out-20151109-gkudhb.html

It's amazing , after all the changes, certification etc the Chinese Govt made manufacturers go through to comply with their export requirements . Looks like they still prefer to buy product made in Australasia in Australasia....

sb9

10-11-2015, 12:33 PM

They should be looking to stock this stuff in countries with other large Chinese populations - US and Canada. It might not last forever, the aim should be to make hay while the sun shines. Meantime they're pissing around losing money on selling fresh milk in the UK and US. Follow the money guys! Business principle #1

Hit the nail on the head there KW, I think they should stick to formula milk big time, that's where the dollars are. Guess that's the difference between them and Bellamy's.

Harrie

10-11-2015, 12:55 PM

They should be looking to stock this stuff in countries with other large Chinese populations - US and Canada. It might not last forever, the aim should be to make hay while the sun shines. Meantime they're pissing around losing money on selling fresh milk in the UK and US. Follow the money guys! Business principle #1

KW, do you have definitive proof that a2mc are losing money on fresh milk sales in USA and UK?
No point in dropping a well formulated and planned strategy for long term growth just to forfill what could be a short term phenomena with baby formula. a2mc has only milk and needs to build and offer a diversified product range around that.

Harrie

10-11-2015, 01:21 PM

Interesting piece from Australian newscast:
Founder of Milk Powder Australia Simon Hansford told News Corp everything flying off the supermarket shelves is flying straight overseas.
"It's happening everywhere at the moment, it's a real movement," Mr Hansford said.
"Companies like Bellamy’s, A2, Swisse and Blackmores are absolutely cleaning up."

Synlait are increasing production of baby formula 3 fold in Canterbury. That should help the supply problem somewhat.

Harrie

10-11-2015, 01:21 PM

Harrie

10-11-2015, 02:32 PM

Umm, the company's financials?

Jeepers, give them a cotton pickin chance!
Of course they are losing revenue in the initial stages of entering the market but the financials on which you are basing your argument are now well out of date.
Perhaps I could have phrased that differently. What evidence is there to suggest that ongoing revenue loss is entrenched. I don't really care about short term losses, what I am looking for is increasing sales penetration. The short term losses will well and truly be ameliorated if the top line growth is evident.
I guess we will get more of a guage on that in a weeks time.

sb9

10-11-2015, 02:35 PM

In the meantime strong buying going on today, into the 80s now.

NT001

10-11-2015, 04:14 PM

My point is that when running a business with limited capital, money should be allocated to products with the highest return. ... Where would you put your capital if you were making investment allocation decisions?

Well I wouldn't put it into a company that had about a five-minute time horizon based on today's media hype, that's for sure. a2MC has some pretty clued-up people running it. Babidge has good history in the overall dairy business and we can largely thank him for a2MC's success in Australia, Wotherspoon has excellent credentials to be running the UK and China operations and O'Neill has a strong background in North American beverage retailing. I'd back their strategy against those of a few shareholders who don't want the company to have a growth or development strategy, just want to see its focus constantly switched for quick short term profits in markets that we are being warned may have difficult times ahead. It would appear that some reasonably large investors in Australia see things the same way at the moment.

sb9

10-11-2015, 05:11 PM

A2 weighs up building baby formula plant to cash in on China demand

http://www.smh.com.au/business/a2-weighs-up-building-baby-formula-plant-to-cash-in-on-china-demand-20151110-gkv1bc.html

Harrie

10-11-2015, 05:19 PM

Well I wouldn't put it into a company that had about a five-minute time horizon based on today's media hype, that's for sure. a2MC has some pretty clued-up people running it. Babidge has good history in the overall dairy business and we can largely thank him for a2MC's success in Australia, Wotherspoon has excellent credentials to be running the UK and China operations and O'Neill has a strong background in North American beverage retailing. I'd back their strategy against those of a few shareholders who don't want the company to have a growth or development strategy, just want to see its focus constantly switched for quick short term profits in markets that we are being warned may have difficult times ahead. It would appear that some reasonably large investors in Australia see things the same way at the moment.

Thanks NT001, could not agree more. Adds a bit of meat to post #4690. We are looking at a defensible long term strategy for growth. Not sure if the market would react very positively to a company that constantly changed strategy on a whim or a short term phenomena. Not every consumer is a buyer of baby formula, so to remove fresh milk from the shelves in favour of meeting a short term supply problem for infant formula would not be a great idea even if it was possible under supply arrangements to retailers currently in place. Its pretty naïve to think that there would not be downstream consequences of agreeing to supply fresh milk to establish a market to only then cancel the arrangement and move to something else, even though it may be more profitable in the short term. Its all about consistency of supply to build credibility and a loyal following.

Leftfield

10-11-2015, 07:59 PM

I liked this part of the news…..:)

"A2 is forecasting "strong growth" in revenue and operating earnings in the 2016 financial year, assuming demand for infant formula in Asia and Australia continues unabated. Revenue is forecast to jump 72 per cent in FY16 to $NZ267 million, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is expected to surge 150 per cent to $NZ12 million."

gv1

10-11-2015, 08:14 PM

Would be good to see that happen, butwhy did Petric leave if it was so good...MR B just keep having shares issued to him.

NT001

10-11-2015, 08:31 PM

Finally! They have $40m, now put it to good use, make some actual money. I totally get that big shareholders have been frustrated with its direction, especially after watching the share price (and profits) of Bellamys go through the roof.

No one disputes, as far as I know, that increasing infant formula sales in to China has to be part of the company's strategy - and it already is. The fact that a2MC is "weighing up" building a formula plant to cash in on China's demand is not new, it's just the media today looking to put a new angle on yesterday's story about some customers rorting the ration system in a particular Woolworths store.

The company's strategy was pretty well signalled in the 2015 AR, and it included meeting the increasing demand from China for infant formula, but not just dropping everything else (such as fresh milk sales) to do so, which would mean as Harrie pointed out peeing off a lot of customers and outlets to whom commitments have been made. A strategy of suddenly putting everything into infant formula sales also assumes that supplies of infant formula can suddenly be ramped up exponentially. They can't. Supplies have to be secured, which means farmers have to be signed up and have to convert their herds, and processing facilities have to be either built or contracted. The company has been working on such issues. The fact that a few hundred cans of formula were photographed going out the door of a Woolworths store this past weekend doesn't mean a2MC is missing out on millions, or that it should go through contortions to turn its development strategy on its head. Let's not get obsessed with Bellamy's share price going "through the roof". We all have the option of buying Bellamy's shares.

The $40m in a2MC's coffers is not a slush fund to play with for short-term gambling, it's already committed for budgeted development including programmes in the US which in many ways must be rated a more commercially solid market than China, and in UK-Europe.

I wonder if those who disagree with this will attend the ASM and tell the company's directors and executives just how hopelessly wrong and devoid of commercial clues they are, and perhaps nominate some directors who will dramatically turn its strategy around.

.

QFD Sage

10-11-2015, 09:16 PM

I'm keen to hear thoughts on what the next price catalyst will be. ATM is a news dominated stock - I personally think that the next driver will be positive news from the US. For the longterm holders, ATM needs to maintain diversification - across products and markets. Yes the China infant formula story is exciting, but it is just one revenue stream, and one that can be dictated by the all powerful Chinese government. So let's enjoy it while it lasts, and make hay whilst the sun shines, but let's not lose sight of the longterm opportunities in multiple markets. All eggs in one basket may mean crying over spilt milk!

stoploss

10-11-2015, 10:19 PM

Two stories in a day on SMH this sector is hot ...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/plenty-of-aussie-formula-online-for-chinese-shoppers-20151110-gkvlq7.html

Not too Flash

11-11-2015, 08:48 AM

No, because it will be around $14000 odd tied up for a couple of weeks with every man and his dog wanting to get in at $0.67, and no it will have no effect on the SP given that what is offered to existing shareholders represents around 0.3 of 1% of total shares. Don't really want to end up an odd number of shares.

Looking at the SPP. I can see small shareholders applying for $15k getting about $1,000 worth or 1,470 shares @ 68 cents. At current SP of .81 a "profit" of $191. Not a bad return on $14k for a couple of weeks - 35%pa by my calcs ! - Thoughts ....

sb9

11-11-2015, 09:59 AM

Zeepers, almost 8 mln sharestraded pre-market and bids coming in strong. Might hit 85c today.

iceman

11-11-2015, 11:01 AM

Looking at the SPP. I can see small shareholders applying for $15k getting about $1,000 worth or 1,470 shares @ 68 cents. At current SP of .81 a "profit" of $191. Not a bad return on $14k for a couple of weeks - 35%pa by my calcs ! - Thoughts ....

It really is impossible to guess how many we will get. Last number I saw was about 3550 shareholders. If they all applied for $15k it would be scaled down to around $845. That is about the minimum those who applied for $15k would get.

iceman

11-11-2015, 11:01 AM

winner69

11-11-2015, 12:11 PM

Totally hot. Thats why Gina Rinehart and Harvey Norman have all bought dairy farms. Its why the price of ONC went from 9c to 80c on news it was buying a dairy farm. Its why Bellamy's share price has gone from $1.20 to almost $10 in a year.

The only shareholders who have missed out on this new white gold rush are ATM's :mad ;:

Interesting insight their KW

Take it Gerry not buying dairy just to get some fresh milk

sb9

11-11-2015, 12:12 PM

The sp has gone bonkers today....especially since ASX opened!!!

silu

11-11-2015, 02:31 PM

Dipped into the savings to apply for the whole 15k allotment.

Joshuatree

11-11-2015, 04:41 PM

Hey silu or anyone have you received your share purchase plan in the mail; 30th oct was the supposed mailing date? Thanks in advance JT.

stoploss

11-11-2015, 04:48 PM

Hey silu or anyone have you received your share purchase plan in the mail; 30th oct was the supposed mailing date? Thanks in advance JT.

JT , you can do it online

https://events.miraqle.com/a2-milk-spp/Country-Validation/?ReturnUrl=%2fa2-milk-spp%2fHome%2f

gmatt

11-11-2015, 04:49 PM

Hey silu or anyone have you received your share purchase plan in the mail; 30th oct was the supposed mailing date? Thanks in advance JT.

Got mine via email and downloaded it ....... you can download a form off their website ...... offer document also on ATM's NZX announcements

Harrie

11-11-2015, 05:20 PM

Looking at the SPP. I can see small shareholders applying for $15k getting about $1,000 worth or 1,470 shares @ 68 cents. At current SP of .81 a "profit" of $191. Not a bad return on $14k for a couple of weeks - 35%pa by my calcs ! - Thoughts ....

Ok if you are into small change fair enough. The price was a lot lower when I wrote that so I suspect now that every man, his dog and cat will be forking out $15k to take a share of an ever dwindling pool of available shares. Higher differential, lower number ...same result

sb9

11-11-2015, 05:26 PM

Its gone nuts on ASX, hit 84c A$ as I type. Might be inching to that magic $1 mark soon.

mayday

11-11-2015, 11:28 PM

http://www.smh.com.au/business/intelligent-investor/bellamys-infant-formula-when-too-many-customers-is-the-problem-20151111-gkwhb2.html

Although this article is talking about Bellamy's issue, I'd like to watch closely how a2mc's management team is going to handle their when-demand-is-greater-than-supply situation in the short term. As one of ATM's shareholders, I'm glad that the company is planning to build a new factory in the long run.

NT001

12-11-2015, 12:40 AM

ATM's Australasian CEO Peter Nathan has emphasised in an Australian ABC interview the point I made in post 4703, that the company can't massively increase its formula production overnight:

PETER NATHAN: What we have to do is to build additional herds because we are the only brand that has product which contains milk powder which contains only the a2 type of protein and not a1. So what that means is we have to breed cows that naturally produce the a2 protein and that takes a little bit of time to select those cows which naturally produce the proteins.

(ABC Interviewer): Mr Nathan says a2 Milk is considering building an extra processing plant.

PETER NATHAN: Any sort of building a plant in conjunction with other parties is a longer lead time and we will not make it in the short term. In the immediate term the focus for us is to build supplying capacity with our existing supplier (Synlait).

Incidentally, some Australian investors are now querying whether the recent dramatic rise in Bellamy's SP is sustainable, especially given that it takes time for new organic farms to gain certification and join that company's supply chain. Many of them think a2MC's share price prospects at the moment look a better bet, likely to surpass A$1 very soon and go a lot higher in the medium term, driven in part by Chinese investment. I'd be inclined to go along with that if the present dairy investment hype continues.

Peter Nathan is correct in pointing out that it takes time to breed up A2 herds, but the formation of A2 herds can also be done in other ways (and much more quickly). Firstly, some farmers have already been building up A2 herds in anticipation of a big move towards A2. And secondly, A2 herds can be formed by buying A2 cows from existing mixed herds.

There are currently hundreds of thousands of A2 cows mixed into Australian and NZ herds, whose milk at present is just being wastefully mixed into the general supermarket A1-A2 milk hotch-potch. If there's enough demand for A2, as there now appears to be, it just needs someone to get organised and buy up these cows that are already of milk-producing age, to create new A2 herds. That's assuming a2MC and Synlait are amenable to this and can handle the processing. It can't be done overnight, but it could be done in months rather than years. Interesting times ahead.

Ginger_steps_

12-11-2015, 02:26 AM

There are currently hundreds of thousands of A2 cows mixed into Australian and NZ herds, whose milk at present is just being wastefully mixed into the general supermarket A1-A2 milk hotch-potch. If there's enough demand for A2, as there now appears to be, it just needs someone to get organised and buy up these cows that are already of milk-producing age, to create new A2 herds. That's assuming a2MC and Synlait are amenable to this and can handle the processing. It can't be done overnight, but it could be done in months rather than years. Interesting times ahead.

a2 should buy all the a2 cows and sell them to farmers on Hire-Purchase quick smart!

iceman

12-11-2015, 09:52 AM

13.5 million shares changing hands pre-opening. All pointing towards hitting 90c today.

JohnnyTheHorse

12-11-2015, 10:05 AM

13.5 million shares changing hands pre-opening. All pointing towards hitting 90c today.

Wait for Aussie market to open, will be even better. This sector is stupidly hot right now - enjoy it and profit from it while it lasts :)

sb9

12-11-2015, 10:11 AM

13.5 million shares changing hands pre-opening. All pointing towards hitting 90c today.

Past that point now at 92c, there's a good chance we might that $1 mark today itself. All depends on ASX trading.

silu

12-11-2015, 10:19 AM

Hey y'all! DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE SHARE PLACEMENT!
Sincerely,
A greedy investor :)

NT001

12-11-2015, 11:30 AM

h2so4

12-11-2015, 11:41 AM

Last nights Current Affair showed the shortage of baby formula on Australia supermarket shelves.
Thank you Tracey.

sb9

12-11-2015, 11:42 AM

And to think that Freedom Foods, a longtime cornerstone shareholder in a2MC, sold down 42m shares on 20 October for NZ73c a share. So far they've lost over $8m in just over three weeks on that call. Not to mention Milford of course, which sold about 15m shares a little earlier at around NZ70c. A few people must be kicking themselves.

Freedom Foods would surely be kicking themselves, no doubt. However in case of Milford they must've been sitting big paper loss for a long time hence may have been forced to sell when a good opportunity came along.

The trading depth on ASX looks pretty ominous, highly likely that we might see that $1 mark hit on both bourses or at least on NZX, just when is the question today or tomorrow?

Joshuatree

12-11-2015, 12:11 PM

Approaching a 2 year high and mkt cap re $661 million; just a little bit over exuberant a bit too frothy like a cappuccino?

RGR367

12-11-2015, 12:16 PM

Hey y'all! DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE SHARE PLACEMENT!
Sincerely,
A greedy investor :)

I could you sell all of mine then after it reached a little over $1.10. Not being greedy(sic) but just too much money on the table already and this gambler would like to start counting his already :cool:

Sideshow Bob

12-11-2015, 12:26 PM

Already sent my placement form in, but didn't go for the maximum $15k. Bugger!!

Choo Choo!!!

Joshuatree

12-11-2015, 12:48 PM

Approaching a 2 year high and mkt cap re $661 million; just a little bit over exuberant a bit too frothy like a cappuccino?

Oh forgot re Chinas one child policy being cancelled!:t_up::scared: wah!

airedale

12-11-2015, 01:12 PM

Oh forgot re Chinas one child policy being cancelled!:t_up::scared: wah!

I hope that 9 months is sufficient time to build a milk powder factory.

RGR367

12-11-2015, 01:13 PM

Already sent my placement form in, but didn't go for the maximum $15k. Bugger!!

Choo Choo!!!

At the rate this is flying, no one will ever get the maximum fill. Just wait for those Big Guys that bought it at 0.68 to unload when they need to move their money around.

Kirk

12-11-2015, 01:25 PM

How would we fund it tho? More Cap raising or enter a JV with someone to help lower the costs

sb9

12-11-2015, 01:26 PM

Wish they could allocate bit more to the public pool than $3 ml, how about raising that to $10 ml?

Is there a provision they could do that or wishful thinking on my part?

iceman

12-11-2015, 01:51 PM

Wish they could allocate bit more to the public pool than $3 ml, how about raising that to $10 ml?

Is there a provision they could do that or wishful thinking on my part?

Wishful thinking. Clearly stated $40m fully underwritten placement and UP TO $3m SPP !!

see weed

12-11-2015, 02:04 PM

Wish they could allocate bit more to the public pool than $3 ml, how about raising that to $10 ml?

Is there a provision they could do that or wishful thinking on my part?
You will have your chance to ask that question at next weeks AGM.:)

NT001

12-11-2015, 02:09 PM

Bellamy's shares down 4% in Oz today on very light trading. Looks like it has lost its fizz. Whereas A2M is up 3.6% over there on heavy trading.

Building a new powder plant in Oz would be only half the trick. Remember it took Chinese officials months to approve the Synlait plant in Canterbury, which manufactures a2MC's infant formula for export, even though it is largely Chinese-owned. Synlait currently has more capacity reserved for a2MC to increase its infant formula throughput, much of which actually goes to Australia, not direct to China.

a2MC will regain control of the NZ a2 milk market in 2017 when Fresha's licence expires, and we can be sure the company is already working on plans to increase exports from this country when that happens.

Another possibility that perhaps should not be ignored is that Jeff O'Neill, a2MC's CEO for the US, might stitch together a deal with Deans to export a2 infant formula to China out of the US. The US has a huge dairy herd (partly a2) which is currently facing a price downturn a bit like the one Fonterra faces, and Deans has the plants and infrastructure that could be utilised. Might not need any capital-raise. An arrangement something like a2MC's deal in the UK with Muller Wiseman could provide a quick fix. It's a time for lateral thinking.

sb9

12-11-2015, 02:09 PM

You will have your chance to ask that question at next weeks AGM.:)

Unfortunately can't make it to ASM see weed, hope someone from here who's able to attend can take up that question.

Harrie

12-11-2015, 02:31 PM

Unfortunately can't make it to ASM see weed, hope someone from here who's able to attend can take up that question.

I understand that the AGM will be video'd and will have a link put on the a2mc website.
Not sure if it will be a live feed.

Harrie

12-11-2015, 02:34 PM

As I am no longer in the top 55 shareholders anymore, will probably not go to meeting, but am sure somebody on here will go.

Bailed too early seeweed?

NT001

12-11-2015, 07:40 PM

If the formula manufacturers do not ramp up supply to meet demand, the (Aust) Govt is likely to ban private exporting it like NZ has. Which will be disastrous for us shareholders.

Okay. so a few traders in Oz are making a nice margin temporarily on flogging infant formula off via courier to China, and it's getting up the noses of some angry Aussie shoppers, but is it really "disastrous" for us shareholders? a2MC is still selling the stuff at a profit on the Aussie market, and I've seen no proof that the quantities are so huge that we shareholders are being robbed blind. I don't think so.

It seems a lot of this hype is being stirred by the "Singles Day" phenomenon which is not 365 days a year. Most Chinese who are paying silly prices for Bellamy's formula wouldn't really have a clue why, and Bellamy's capacity to ramp up production to meet astronomical demand is very limited because of the problems around organic certification, which a2MC does not have.

Chinese consumers also don't fully understand the benefits of a2, but they soon will, because human clinical test results involving Chinese consumers are due for release quite soon. And my expectation is that the results will show a2 beats its competitors hands down, including organic competitors.

The immediate problem will remain, though, how to push more product into the short term pipeline. I would expect this to be one of the most interesting topics for discussion at the coming ASM. The current infant formula "explosion" has caught everyone a bit by surprise, and with China's sudden relaxation of its one-child rule the race is now on.

But a2MC's strategy has always been a longterm one. It can be tweaked a little to respond to surges in market demand, but the long term issue for a2 has never been whether its SP can get above $1 - it has always been a question of how long it takes to exceed $5 or $10, and at what point farmers in major milk-producing countries decide en masse to stop producing medically hazardous A1 milk, and producers such as Fonterra accept the inevitable (which they already know but won't admit). This whole thing has got a long long way to go yet.

blobbles

12-11-2015, 07:54 PM

Yeah, bailed out 88% holding in July/August at great profit. I got a bit of nervous nelly when it started going down again, Was losing over $3500 every time it went down a cent, so bailed into div stocks, but still have 40k at 50c, so am happy with that.:)

I got rid of about 30% when the price jumped too. Still holding most of my original holding at ~60c cost. Hopefully we will see $1 tomorrow... and more in the weeks to come :-)

Am hoping for some profit upgrades in the coming months :-)

blobbles

12-11-2015, 07:57 PM

Chinese consumers also don't fully understand the benefits of a2, but they soon will, because human clinical test results involving Chinese consumers are due for release quite soon. And my expectation is that the results will show a2 beats its competitors hands down, including organic competitors.

Careful here. Chinese consumers are actually very well informed, much more so than most westerners. They research EVERYTHING that they do/give to their children because they are so important (1 child policy). They also read English quite well. To say they "don't fully understand the benefits of a2" is a bit stereotypical, I suspect you would be surprised if you asked them.

Having lived in China for a number of years, I understand the people fairly well. I was actually asked about a2 milk while there a couple of times when people with kids found out I came from NZ.

stoploss

12-11-2015, 09:07 PM

Having lived there you would know the one child policy has been expanded to two , hence some of the excitement in this sector ....

airedale

12-11-2015, 09:46 PM

Quote "But a2MC's strategy has always been a longterm one. It can be tweaked a little to respond to surges in market demand, but the long term issue for a2 has never been whether its SP can get above $1 - it has always been a question of how long it takes to exceed $5 or $10, and at what point farmers in major milk-producing countries decide en masse to stop producing medically hazardous A1 milk, and producers such as Fonterra accept the inevitable (which they already know but won't admit). This whole thing has got a long long way to go yet." unquote

I have just been re-reading some of Prof Woodward's old newsletters. He is of the opinion that eventually {whenever that is} A1 cows will have to go and A2 cows will predominate in the dairy industry.

black knat

12-11-2015, 09:54 PM

......it has always been a question of how long it takes to exceed $5 or $10, and at what point farmers in major milk-producing countries decide en masse to stop producing medically hazardous A1 milk......

Grossly over-stated. As I am sure you know... medical evidence of adverse health effects in the general population from drinking milk containing A1 does not exist.

blobbles

12-11-2015, 10:02 PM

Having lived there you would know the one child policy has been expanded to two , hence some of the excitement in this sector ....

I am aware, however the cultural bias will live on in China for a long while yet. Even allowing for 2 children - traditionally Chinese families have as many children as possible. 4-10 was not unusual before the policy was enacted. So being limited to 2 isn't going to change their desire to give the best to their children. You will also note that 2 children is only possible for those parents where at least one of the parents is a single child - perpetuating the cultural bias.

Joshuatree

12-11-2015, 11:28 PM

Approaching a 2 year high and mkt cap re $661 million; just a little bit over exuberant a bit too frothy like a cappuccino?

So how can anyone justify the current mkt cap up re $30 million today to approx $685 million !!!? Something tells me its another rinse and repeat. Sell some/all and take my chances with the number of shares i get in the spp.

Thanks stoploss and gmatt. I never got an email or snail mail with the application form. Anyway have applied for the max online along with everyone else.

Bjauck

13-11-2015, 10:01 AM

So how can anyone justify the current mkt cap up re $30 million today to approx $685 million !!!? Something tells me its another rinse and repeat. Sell some/all and take my chances with the number of shares i get in the spp.

Thanks stoploss and gmatt. I never got an email or snail mail with the application form. Anyway have applied for the max online along with everyone else. There must be some smaller shareholders such as me. I do not have the ready cash to apply for $15,000 worth. So, even amongst the put-upon small shareholders, it will be a case of the rich becoming richer!

Scooter

13-11-2015, 10:11 AM

the offer is going to be massively scaled back. They are after $3m and no oversubscriptions with applications being scaled on a proportionate basis, clause 6.3 in document

Not too Flash

13-11-2015, 10:19 AM

There must be some smaller shareholders such as me. I do not have the ready cash to apply for $15,000 worth. So, even amongst the put-upon small shareholders, it will be a case of the rich becoming richer!

They may have a minimum of say 500 for all applications so may be worth applying for what you can afford and you may be surprised.

Bjauck

13-11-2015, 10:21 AM

So, I presume, if you apply for $5000 in the spp - you will get 1/3 of the number of shares that the shareholder who applies for $15,000 will receive. Is that how the scaling will work?

I would like $2000 of new shares but I do not have $15000 cash. It is why as a small shareholder, I do not like this type of SPP.

Bjauck

13-11-2015, 10:35 AM

They may have a minimum of say 500 for all applications so may be worth applying for what you can afford and you may be surprised. I have read the documentation and did not see anything about a minimum number of shares allotted under the SPP. If that were the case I think that it should be expressly stated.

Bilbo

13-11-2015, 10:45 AM

stoploss

13-11-2015, 10:47 AM

I'm also beginning to wonder how much of the supply shortage is being engineered by the companies themselves. If I were running the company, I'd make sure that the majority of my product was shipped directly to and sold in China, at a higher price than I get in Australia. I would maintain only enough stock in Australia to (a) keep my main distributors happy so that they keep it on the shelves (Coles/Woolies) and (b) to maintain the truth that it is a brand sold in Australia and used by Australians, so the Chinese will buy it in China, and (c) to deliberately create a shortage so that people start to wonder why my product is so bloody special that its always sold out, thus prompting them to try it (no-one is complaining they cant get hold of S26!).

One solution to the problem is for prices in Australia to be put up. Then the Chinese can buy in China and the Australians can buy in Australia. Its only the price differential that is driving the black market. But then everyone would whinge that the prices are too high and they can't afford it. Basically infant formula manufacturers are currently subsidising their local market at the expense of shareholders by offering low prices to consumers. In any normal market an increase in demand and no corresponding increase in supply results in price rises.

Hope they don't do this with the A2 powder ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11544519

iceman

13-11-2015, 11:16 AM

The offer document states "6.3 If a2MC receives valid applications in excess of NZ$3,000,000, it will scale back all applicationson a proportionate basis..."

Can anyone clarify what this means in plain English? What is it proportionate to? The amount of shares applies for (so all those that apply for $15k will get the same scaling % applies as those who apply for $5k), or is it proportionate to your existing shareholding, so larger holders get more?

I assume the first, but the wording is not clear.

The way I have read the documents is that there is no guaranteed minimum and all applications will be scaled back proportionally. If for example A2M received applications for $15M, then everyone would get 20% of what they applied for, adding up to $3M.
Personally I expect much greater scaling than that

stoploss

13-11-2015, 11:29 AM

See that is the interesting thing. Being cheaper doesnt mean being successful. In Australia, the brands that are selling out are the three premium ones - A2, Bellamys and Aptamil. No-one appears to be clearing out the supermarkets and bulk exporting S26 or NAN to China. The Chinese like premium priced products - they associate that with both quality and status. Being a cheap infant formula made by a Chinese company in NZ is not going to have the same cache as the stuff that Australian consumers are now clamouring for in the news. If anything, this is going to drive more Chinese purchasers because the media are promoting it as rare and special. Its become the Louis Vuitton of infant formula LOL

Don't Synlait make the A2 powder KW ?

mayday

13-11-2015, 12:34 PM

Interesting divergence for A2 on the markets today - NZ opened lower, Australia opened higher.

My entire ASX watchlist is in red now apart from A2M and BAL, luckily not too many shorts onto both stocks I suppose

Joshuatree

13-11-2015, 12:54 PM

A bit rugged alright; 15% of my ASX stocks held are up 31% flat and 54% down atp.

NT001

13-11-2015, 08:57 PM

....As I am sure you know... medical evidence of adverse health effects in the general population from drinking milk containing A1 does not exist.

You must be joking. That's the kind of statement you only hear nowadays from spokespeople for Fonterra or Dairy Australia or the discredited former NZ Food Safety Authority, ie people still trying to protect a stance that has been well and truly disproved by clinical research over the past decade. Unless perhaps you are trying to be very cute with your use of words. Of course the adverse health effects for which evidence has been accumulating from the work of teams around the world do not affect each individual member of the "general population" to the same degree, because each individual's susceptibility to harm is modulated in some degree by specific personal circumstamces, whether they be genetic, environmental, medical, immunological, lifestyle, dietary, fitness-related or plain bad luck etc. Some will be lucky. Others may be the victims of a combination of factors. But all members of the "general population" are at risk if they consume A1 milk, and the evidence is now so strong that you won't find knowledgable scientists seriously disputing this any more.

Some may quibble a bit around the edges, but no one - not even the most powerfully equipped dairy interests like Fonterra - any longer disputes that BCM7, the opioid peptide generated through the digestion of A1 milk, can pass through the gut wall of a significant proportion of consumers, and can get into the bloodstream and from there into the brain where it can contribute to a number of unpleasant conditions such as autism and schizophrenia. Nor do they dispute that BCM7 is demonstrably capable of causing inflamation in various parts of the body, a precursor to such diseases as heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc. Nor have they come up with any credible alternative explanation as to why there is an incontrovertible statistical correlation between the high incidence of heart disease and type 1 diabetes in countries where the milk contains a high proportion of A1. (Fonterra still co-holds a patent based on a probable link between A1 milk and diabetes)

A few years ago, people like the European Food Safety Authority were able to say some of these things could be disregarded as they had yet to be proven. They can't now. Their concern is that people may get switched off drinking milk, and at present they still think the possible risks outweigh the proven benefits, so they're not updating their views in line with ty he new research. But why take the risk if it's undeniable and avoidable? A2 milk gives consumers the opportunity to avoid it

In many branches of the research, it has now been shown clinically that there is definite evidence if not absolute proof of links between BCM7 and harmful medical conditions, and that there is a known pathway by which causation could occur. Some critics still argue that such evidence does not prove BCM7 is actually causing medical harm. They want "proof" that it's happening, not just evidence, or even proof that it CAN happen. It's the old story. Remember decades ago when the tobacco lobby said "yes the statistics do seem to support a suspectedl link between smoking and lung cancer, and the medical experts have shown the link could theoretically be causative, but no one has ever actually produced a case where a smoker got lung cancer and all other causes were able to be 100% excluded." Yeah, right.

DYOR. For a start, read Keith Woodford's book "Devil in the Milk", second edition updated. That should be everyone's starting point. Then read the books and scientific papers that show where he's wrong. There aren't any, which should make you think. And if all that doesn't convince you, read the websites that outline the scores of peer-reviewed research papers on the subject of BCM7.

CatO'Tonic

13-11-2015, 10:10 PM

You must be joking. That's the kind of statement you only hear nowadays from spokespeople for Fonterra or Dairy Australia or the discredited former NZ Food Safety Authority, ie people still trying to protect a stance that has been well and truly disproved by clinical research over the past decade. Unless perhaps you are trying to be very cute with your use of words. Of course the adverse health effects for which evidence has been accumulating from the work of teams around the world do not affect each individual member of the "general population" to the same degree, because each individual's susceptibility to harm is modulated in some degree by specific personal circumstamces, whether they be genetic, environmental, medical, immunological, lifestyle, dietary, fitness-related or plain bad luck etc. Some will be lucky. Others may be the victims of a combination of factors. But all members of the "general population" are at risk if they consume A1 milk, and the evidence is now so strong that you won't find knowledgable scientists seriously disputing this any more.

Some may quibble a bit around the edges, but no one - not even the most powerfully equipped dairy interests like Fonterra - any longer disputes that BCM7, the opioid peptide generated through the digestion of A1 milk, can pass through the gut wall of a significant proportion of consumers, and can get into the bloodstream and from there into the brain where it can contribute to a number of unpleasant conditions such as autism and schizophrenia. Nor do they dispute that BCM7 is demonstrably capable of causing inflamation in various parts of the body, a precursor to such diseases as heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc. Nor have they come up with any credible alternative explanation as to why there is an incontrovertible statistical correlation between the high incidence of heart disease and type 1 diabetes in countries where the milk contains a high proportion of A1. (Fonterra still co-holds a patent based on a probable link between A1 milk and diabetes)

A few years ago, people like the European Food Safety Authority were able to say some of these things could be disregarded as they had yet to be proven. They can't now. Their concern is that people may get switched off drinking milk, and at present they still think the possible risks outweigh the proven benefits, so they're not updating their views in line with ty he new research. But why take the risk if it's undeniable and avoidable? A2 milk gives consumers the opportunity to avoid it

In many branches of the research, it has now been shown clinically that there is definite evidence if not absolute proof of links between BCM7 and harmful medical conditions, and that there is a known pathway by which causation could occur. Some critics still argue that such evidence does not prove BCM7 is actually causing medical harm. They want "proof" that it's happening, not just evidence, or even proof that it CAN happen. It's the old story. Remember decades ago when the tobacco lobby said "yes the statistics do seem to support a suspectedl link between smoking and lung cancer, and the medical experts have shown the link could theoretically be causative, but no one has ever actually produced a case where a smoker got lung cancer and all other causes were able to be 100% excluded." Yeah, right.

DYOR. For a start, read Keith Woodford's book "Devil in the Milk", second edition updated. That should be everyone's starting point. Then read the books and scientific papers that show where he's wrong. There aren't any, which should make you think. And if all that doesn't convince you, read the websites that outline the scores of peer-reviewed research papers on the subject of BCM7.

Agree NT001, its unlikely that a2 or its supporters will be able to prove their case conclusively and trying to do so would be a waste of time and money. I know personally that I get a crook guts when I drink ordinary milk and both of my kids get fidgety and restless with it, biting fingernails, chewing clothes etc... All anecdotal I know, but try convincing me that there's nothing in it. I like to think that good science will eventually win the day. Like the smoking and global warming debates, doubters will get quieter as the weight of research starts to erode their position. Eventually, anyone looking at the argument will follow the money - who stands to gain/lose the most. There are far too many vested interests who are quite happy with the status quo and not at all interested in supporting research into the whole A1/A2 thing. Read into that what you will. The fact that the main stream NZ milk industry hasn't backed this is neither here nor there. Remember Fonterra are the same outfit that have decided it is a good idea to export a raw commodity into a global market they don't control. Also, their response to the a1/a2 debate so far has been entirely reactionary. After initial attempts to acquire the IP behind A2 milk,they have had no official opinion on the matter, probably hoping it will all just go away.
I'd like to see the a2 message out there so people can at least make an informed decision. Disc: I had quite a few of these for a while but no longer holding as this one is still a bit too speculative for my nerves. I'll be up to my neck in this company if/when they get serious traction in the states (although they'll almost certainly be acquired before then).

sb9

16-11-2015, 02:18 PM

I'm picking the sp might hit $1 mark tomorrow on back of buoyant trading update and other things set to announce at ASM.

see weed

16-11-2015, 03:51 PM

I'm picking the sp might hit $1 mark tomorrow on back of buoyant trading update and other things set to announce at ASM.
Funny how things can change in a year. Last year the sp dropped from about 65c to 50c after the meeting, which was good for me.

sb9

17-11-2015, 11:44 AM

$1 here it comes...

From ASM presentation:

Big revised earnings!

From EBITDA NZ$12m to NZ$22m! If excluding UK&US of loss (NZ$16.5m), will be NZ$38.5m!

Also, it's great news that UK operation to achieve break-even by first half FY17.

:t_up:

iceman

17-11-2015, 11:56 AM

A huge increase also in number of SH. It has doubled in last 12 months. If 90% of them apply for the full $15k SPP we will have about $14.5k of it returned :-(

iceman

17-11-2015, 12:59 PM

Infant formula sales in 4 months to 31 Oct 2014 $ 8.7M. This year for the same period $ 38M representing 47% of Group revenue. Not bad !

iceman

17-11-2015, 01:04 PM

I broke all my own rules with this stock. Nice to see it finally pay off :t_up: Now to catch up with BAL :p

Now if they could just chuck some infant formula London's way, they'd get rid of that pesky UK loss...

They already are KW according to the announcement :-)
"The business in the UK is continuing to build beyond its modest fresh milk base with the product portfolio extending into UHT milk and infant formula. "

blobbles

17-11-2015, 01:16 PM

Was expecting this, great news! Market loves it, rightly so. ATM are usually a little conservative in their guidance so hitting 285m is almost a given. 300m a possibility?

Nasi Goreng

17-11-2015, 01:29 PM

Want an alternative investment to ATM? Have a look at SML. IMO, currently undervalued and I'm sure they are doing very well out of
partnership with ATM and booming infant formula numbers.

I'm holding SML and consider it a long term play, I think we will see quite a bit of growth out of them over the next few years. Of course, DYOR.

Nasi Goreng

17-11-2015, 01:54 PM

Dairy plants take a long time to build (and a fair bit of capital) and I think that SML will continue to work alongside ATM - long term probably enough demand to have considerable load on two factories. I can't see ATM turning their backs on NZ farmers who have made the switch.

see weed

17-11-2015, 03:40 PM

Wish they could allocate bit more to the public pool than $3 ml, how about raising that to $10 ml?

Is there a provision they could do that or wishful thinking on my part?
Someone did ask that question today.

iceman

17-11-2015, 03:46 PM

Someone did ask that question today.

And what was the answer ? I suspect NO which would be in line with announcements. Suppose we have to accept our $500 odd worth :t_down: ???

sb9

17-11-2015, 03:53 PM

Someone did ask that question today.

What was the response see weed?

I see Freedom foods sold out their remaining holding today.

CatO'Tonic

17-11-2015, 04:28 PM

What was the response see weed?

I see Freedom foods sold out their remaining holding today.
That would go some way to explaining the huge volumes. Encouraging to see that the SP has held up even with such a large stake being sold. I couldn't help myself and bought back in to ATM yesterday, quite glad I did.

Harrie

17-11-2015, 08:54 PM

I think Freedom are planning on getting into infant formula themselves - they'd be silly to be missing out on all this cash. Still, they would have to find a point of difference - maybe organic like Bellamy's?

Firstly, Not while they are under a supply contract with a2mc.They supply a very large majority of a2 milk to a2mc in Australia via lepperton (Perich) and Moxey farms.

Secondly, Lepperton and Moxey farms operating as AFMH don't have organic registered farms.

Thirdly, long time to set up a brand and even if they do, what label are they going to sell under? They cant use anything that has any reference to a2 in their brand.
It took A2mc many years to establish their brand, do FF want to go down that track?

fourthly, a2mc will have other suppliers so if at the end of the supply contract it gets cancelled then Lepperton and Moxey have a demand problem before they can establish a recognisable brand to take up the surplus supply, because a2mc will move to other suppliers, albeit possibly having a short term supply problem. FF would have a demand problem as well as sacrificing the premium they currently get from a2mc, while they attempt to establish a brand.

Fiftly, I can imagine that they could easily run into legal issues with a2mc, because it would be hard to ride on a2's success without using that name, or any of the IP around it.

Nasi Goreng

17-11-2015, 09:22 PM

Freedom must be delighted with the share price action over the last year. It's been nothing short of a fairy tale. Not a holder of A2M but the shackles have been lifted for other shareholders now Freedom have gone.

see weed

17-11-2015, 11:10 PM

And what was the answer ? I suspect NO which would be in line with announcements. Suppose we have to accept our $500 odd worth :t_down: ???
Yeah, total waste of time, over subscribed. BUT a very positive meeting on the whole, though my mind kept wandering over to the big muffins and cream scones on the other table. What I can barely remember is something to do with not needing any more money than they already have,from the $40 million raisings from the big boys. But they might give the small shareholders a bit more allocation if they ever do it again, but I might be wrong.

stef

18-11-2015, 08:27 AM

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

winner69

18-11-2015, 08:41 AM

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

It's still all about believing the story mate

Some would say it should only be 30 cents - eps say 2 cents/share at PE of 15 is 30 cents value.

I'm sure a MAC style DCF would come up with at least $1.75

What you reckon it will be stef?

sb9

18-11-2015, 08:57 AM

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

From the update y'day, they revised their EBITDA to NZ $22mln. You can work out NPAT from that figure roughly and on outstanding shares of 711 ml from memory, it'll be easy to work out EPS and apply relevant PE multiple.
My rough estimate is between $1.40-$1.70, however based on what happened to Bellamy's sp in past 12 months and further demand growth for A2 infant formula especially out of China, that price might be totally irrelevant. The Aussies seem to be quite hungry on this stock right now.
There is a good discussion on hotcopper.com.au re this stock which gives you plenty of information.

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

winner69

18-11-2015, 09:13 AM

From the update y'day, they revised their EBITDA to NZ $22mln. You can work out NPAT from that figure roughly and on outstanding shares of 711 ml from memory, it'll be easy to work out EPS and apply relevant PE multiple.
My rough estimate is between $1.40-$1.70, however based on what happened to Bellamy's sp in past 12 months and further demand growth for A2 infant formula especially out of China, that price might be totally irrelevant. The Aussies seem to be quite hungry on this stock right now.
There is a good discussion on hotcopper.com.au re this stock which gives you plenty of information.

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

Ok - bit mean last post with 30 cents

Lets use a whopping 30 PE -that gives 60 cents

See guys its all about believing the story - current financials mean squat all really

It's worth what the next punter wants to pay, no more and no less

stef

18-11-2015, 09:24 AM

Ok - bit mean last post with 30 cents

Lets use a whopping 30 PE -that gives 60 cents

See guys its all about believing the story - current financials mean squat all really

It's worth what the next punter wants to pay, no more and no less

Yes the SP has spent along time around 60c previously, but if earning growth & market conditions remain positive I am picking around 150c sometime next year

RGR367

18-11-2015, 09:26 AM

Hopefully this answer what will FF do with the cash they have after selling their ATM shares http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00587/freedom-foods-sells-remaining-stake-in-milk-marketer-a2-milk.htm

theace

18-11-2015, 10:15 AM

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

Applied online yesterday, and was expecting the Direct Debit to clip the amount from the bank account last night. It's $ still sitting in the bank account. Anyone know when it'll be withdrawn?

Joshuatree

18-11-2015, 10:32 AM

Took a day longer than i expected for mine.

sb9

18-11-2015, 10:38 AM

Applied online yesterday, and was expecting the Direct Debit to clip the amount from the bank account last night. It's $ still sitting in the bank account. Anyone know when it'll be withdrawn?

Mine is still waiting to be taken too, have done it last night. I'm expecting to go out today.

blobbles

18-11-2015, 11:03 AM

It's still all about believing the story mate

Some would say it should only be 30 cents - eps say 2 cents/share at PE of 15 is 30 cents value.

I'm sure a MAC style DCF would come up with at least $1.75

What you reckon it will be stef?

Remember to factor in an 84% revenue growth rate into calculations providing they hit their revenue target...

sb9

18-11-2015, 01:27 PM

Just hit the $1 mark again, hope it closes there or above that today :t_up:

NT001

18-11-2015, 01:50 PM

...its all about believing the story - current financials mean squat all really

As one who attended the meeting and is guided by FA rather than TA, I'd have to fully agree with Winner. The Aussie market for dairy and infant formula investment is obviously being driven by its own slightly crazy dynamics at present and anything is possible. One thing I took out of the meeting was the increased emphasis on IP and research, which pleased me. And although the general tone was fairly low-key despite the 2016 result upgrade I got the impression that future progress results (which will be issued quarterly because things are moving so fast) will be no disappointment.

Joshuatree

19-11-2015, 12:25 AM

"VIP membership cards for A2 fesh milk, CNY 1,920 for six months for 48 bottles"
"CNY 40/liter re A$8.80/L"

http://item.jd.com/1199167.html (http://item.jd.com/1199167.html)

http://item.jd.com/1625133.html

sb9

19-11-2015, 07:13 AM

Mine is still waiting to be taken too, have done it last night. I'm expecting to go out today.

Money taken out last night as expected.

sb9

19-11-2015, 08:13 AM

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00627/market-close-nz-shares-rise-led-by-xero-a2-milk.htm

Another takeover looming???

Excerpts from the article above as per Mark Lister of Craigs.

"
Lister said a2 could be a takeover target in the future after batting away a bid earlier this year."It would arguably fit quite nicely into the portfolio of a larger player," he said.

NT001

19-11-2015, 10:12 AM

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00627/market-close-nz-shares-rise-led-by-xero-a2-milk.htm (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00627/market-close-nz-shares-rise-led-by-xero-a2-milk.htm)Another takeover looming??? Excerpts from the article above as per Mark Lister of Craigs. "Lister said a2 could be a takeover target in the future after batting away a bid earlier this year."It would arguably fit quite nicely into the portfolio of a larger player," he said.

I would very much doubt that. It's the kind of speculative comment that is sometimes tossed around by people who don't understand that A2 isn't just an alternative brand of milk that would make a nice addition to some company's product range. The entire a2 business is based firmly on a scientific proposition that is rejected and seen as a threat by the rest of the global dairy sector, namely that the standard bovine milk sold round the world contains a protein (a1) that is indigestible and/or medically hazardous to many consumers.

The growth of the a2 business will gradually and inevitably bring it into more direct conflict with the rest of the dairy sector as more scientific findings emerge. Therefore it doesn't fit into the portfolio of any mainstream dairy player, which raises the question, who else would be interested in it?

One of the positives to emerge from the recent rise in the a2MC share price is that it pretty much puts it out of the question as a takeover target (the offer would have to be around $1bn minimum), and secures a2MC's capability to stand on its own. That doesn't exclude the possibility that an outside company might be interested in taking a substantial stake in a2MC, especially now that Freedom Foods is no longer a 20% holder.

Joshuatree

19-11-2015, 10:59 AM

No shortage of Healthcare product companies outside the dairy companies there NT. Blackmores $3 Bill mkt cap,and Ebos $2 Bill plus(have already taken out someone bigger than them i think) , just two in our backyard.

skid

19-11-2015, 02:54 PM

If its as much as a threat as you say ,I think it would fit fine in a big dairy co.s product range--all bases covered,and no more threat.

winner69

19-11-2015, 03:49 PM

Any body kept track of all those SSH lately

Seems an awful lot sold - whose been buying?

skid

19-11-2015, 04:01 PM

If its as much as a threat as you say ,I think it would fit fine in a big dairy co.s product range--all bases covered,and no more threat.

sb9

19-11-2015, 05:00 PM

Any body kept track of all those SSH lately

Seems an awful lot sold - whose been buying?

Yeah it's all on the go, seems as though Milford and Mountain Road sold quite bit of late as per SSHs.

However, the billion dollar question is who bought that 75 ml shares block sold by Freedom Foods?
Its 2 business days since sold, so the buyer whoever that may be should issue SSH notice by COB today. I'm picking they'll issue one after market closes today.

its game on from there depending on who the buyer is, rumour to be overseas buyer Chinese perhaps....JD.com?

NT001

19-11-2015, 05:23 PM

airedale

19-11-2015, 05:34 PM

Hi NT I accept what you are saying except that you overstate things when you say "A1 is bad for you". More correctly you should say "A1 is bad for some".

NT001

19-11-2015, 05:41 PM

Nice to see Cliff Cook (Mountain Road Investments) making a nice profit on the sale of part of his substantial holding in a2MC. If anyone deserves it, he does. He came to the company's rescue both financially and managerially after it was left in a very difficult situation by the deaths of its two inspirational founders, scientist Corran McLachlan and financier-agriculturist Howard Paterson, within weeks of each other back in 2003. We all owe Cliff Cook a vote of thanks.

NT001

19-11-2015, 06:25 PM

Hi NT I accept what you are saying except that you overstate things when you say "A1 is bad for you". More correctly you should say "A1 is bad for some".

At the risk of seeming to dominate this thread for the moment, I'd make two a couple of points briefly on that. First, some people who smoke reach a ripe old age in apparent good health, but I think it's still valid to say "smoking is bad for you". Much the same with drinking A1 milk. It is already known for example that the opioid peptide BCM7 generated by A1 milk can disrupt antioxidant activity and increase the risk of organ and tissue inflamation, potentially leading to various lethal or serious medical conditions. Some people's immune systems will cope with this better than others' and it won't actually kill or make consumers manifestly ill in all cases, but it can certainly be described as bad for you if it increases the risk.

Harrie

20-11-2015, 12:59 PM

Well put NT

Nasi Goreng

20-11-2015, 02:28 PM

tango

20-11-2015, 03:49 PM

Has anyone heard whether the offer was oversubscribed and by how much???
Very interested to see what we get. Has to be at least 2000 shares as ATM applied for a mandated minimum 2000 shareholding and some people may have qualified for shares and then sold down their shares to buy these shares...

NT001

20-11-2015, 03:53 PM

Has anyone heard whether the offer was oversubscribed and by how much???.

The chairman said at the annual meeting that it was over-subscribed but he didn't know by how much because the SPP was then still open.

Rossimarnz

20-11-2015, 04:13 PM

I would be very surprised if we get 20% of what we applied for. 10% might be closer to the truth

Not too Flash

20-11-2015, 04:24 PM

If all 6,000 odd shareholders applied for $15k - and at a 50% gain why wouldn't you (67c to $1).

Then $90m subscribed - you would only get 1/30th of application. - may be lucky to get 10%

tango

20-11-2015, 04:24 PM

I would be very surprised if we get 20% of what we applied for. 10% might be closer to the truth

Yeah, the shares are suddenly "hot" so I'm not expecting much. At that price I'll take everything I can get :)

sb9

20-11-2015, 04:29 PM

Yeah, the shares are suddenly "hot" so I'm not expecting much. At that price I'll take everything I can get :)

Definitely, you gotta to be in though to get what you can. I'm happy with whatever I can get.

NT001

20-11-2015, 04:54 PM

I think comparing smoking and the damage cigarettes do with A1 milk is a bit OTT. I can't imagine the day where I am looking at two bottles of milk in the supermarket, one with photographs of inflamed organ and tissues on the label.

Also, if your body is able to tolerate A1, is it actually bad for you when you balance that against all of the other benefits dairy can provide? Based on your argument, you may suggest that going out for an evening walk/run is bad for you because you risk breathing in fumes from the traffic/city smog which have been proven to cause X,Y and Z.

All these issues involve balancing the risks against the benefits, obviously. I gave up jogging on Wellington's winding hill roads some time back because of the risk of completely buggering a hip, ankle or knee, so now I walk instead (no fumes in windy Wellington). And I'm sure you're right about labelling milk with gory pictures (which I'm not advocating), but there are lots of other ways of getting the message across, either with or without public health agency involvement.

I'm also not saying the health damage attributable to A1 is equal to that due to smoking (which also has fewer offsetting benefits). That actually remains to be seen. As things stand at present, the benefits of drinking A1 would appear to outweigh the proven downside risks, especially for infants whose mothers are unable to provide lengthy breast-feeding. Infants up to the age of about 2 years are the most susceptible to damage from A1 because their gut lining is permeable and allows the BCM7 peptide to pass through into the bloodstream. No one (least of all the a2MC) is yet urging people to stop drinking A1, partly because there's not enough A2 available to fill the gap, but it is time to start accepting that the risks attached to A1 go well beyond mere digestive discomfort.

Whether anyone's body is "able to tolerate A1" without any health damage is something we just don't know yet. What we know is that damage has been clinically identified in some human subjects. We may find some people can "tolerate" A1 without clear harm, but how many and to what extent remains unknown. Medications may be developed that can reduce the harm, but is it worth running the risk? At this stage there are still lots of questions and few quantified answers, but a growing body of research evidence that should be food for thought - for consumers, the medical profession, dairy farmers and the dairy industry among others. For myself, I avoid drinking A1 milk.

skid

20-11-2015, 05:17 PM

Skid, I accept that's the way some people see it because it looks temptingly logical in a marketing sense. Up till now, a2MC and its predecessor A2 Corp have managed to survive in a market dominated by sellers of A1 milk by just saying "A2 is good for you" and not annoying its competitors too much. As a result, many consumers and marketing analysts think A2's success is just due to slick advertising and maybe putting a secret additive in the milk that gives you warm fuzzies.

In the longer term, though, with more and more science emerging that shows A1 and mixed A1-A2 milk not only causes digestive problems but has real medical implications as well, how is a new owner going to explain to its consumers why it's continuing to sell them A1 milk as its mainline product?

A few years ago there was much less science available on A1-A2 and still some dispute about it, but it's now become a big topic for research teams round the world who are uncovering and publishing details of the nasty things A1 can do to you.

It's no longer disputed now that A2 milk is the original natural milk produced by cows and also by human breast-feeding mothers, and A1 milk is a genetic aberration that can cause problems in many consumers. If you believe in the science, you have to say "A1 is bad for you", and this is what a2MC is gradually moving towards doing, rather than just trotting out the old blah that "A2 is good for you". That's not an easy position to adopt if you're pushing A1 milk and formula as your main product line.

My logic (strictly in a business sense)is that ,if you buy the company(a2)and it becomes part of your stable,there is then no need to finance more scientific tests which detract from your mainstream (a1) product--you continue to sell a2 to those that want it,but being largely a defensive buy you dont mess with it, and make due with your ''niche''market of a2 enthusiasts,which hopefully pays the way for your new addition,while at the same time selling you main product with no fear of being exposed as an inferior product.
(of course this would only work for a very large dairy co. with heaps invested in the a1 stock and deep pockets AND A2 would have to get big enough to pose an actual threat...(something like Fonterra buying to protect its multitude of a1 farmers)

sb9

23-11-2015, 10:32 AM

Director's (Julia) stamp of confidence from their purchase of 50,000 shares on market.

Ginger_steps_

23-11-2015, 12:23 PM

Dear a2 - GO YOU BEAUTY!!!

blobbles

23-11-2015, 12:55 PM

Director's (Julia) stamp of confidence from their purchase of 50,000 shares on market.

Maybe the straw that opens the camels floodgates? Hmmm, mixed metaphors?

Director buying in, nothing wrong with that!

Sell side on both indexes look tiny compared to buy sides. The squeeze is good for the SP!

drcjp

23-11-2015, 01:24 PM

It would seem the punters have eyes for no-one else but ATM on the NZX these last few days.
Wot a shame :)

iceman

23-11-2015, 02:39 PM

What a day. Up another 10% so far on large volume and not over yet. We sure are having a great ride and one wonders when she will take a breather. Should be getting most of our $15k SPP money back on Thursday :-(

Joshuatree

23-11-2015, 02:41 PM

From thebull.com.au (Its free)todayBUY RECOMMENDATIONS

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)
http://www.thebull.com.au//get_foto.php?id=8033&size=600
Chart: Share price over the year

The company recently upgraded profit, revising EBITDA (http://www.thebull.com.au/investment/a/90-ebitda.html) from $NZ12 million to $NZ22 million. A strong contributor to this performance was infant formula sales, where demand from China is exceptionally strong. Infant formula now accounts for 47 per cent of group revenue, enabling direct comparisons with Bellamy’s Australia, but with A2M offering considerable relative value to Bellamy’s.

sb9

23-11-2015, 09:11 PM

That was some rally today, still the 75 ml share block buyers to be revealed, once that's known there might be another rocket under sp (depending on who that is).
Hoping for decent allocation under SPP, happy with anything though as there's a 50c gain straightaway and no brokerage. Tell you what those instos who got in SPP would be singing happy tunes right now, lucky them.
Across the ditch they are portraying this to be next Bellamys or even bigger!!!

Joshuatree

23-11-2015, 09:27 PM

Wow youre right sb9.Ive just really noticed the days end price $1.09,11.22% rise today on big vol, re 15.5 mill shares thru, high of $1.12!!. More to come? Hope Mac is a happy holder.

longy

23-11-2015, 10:57 PM

Wow youre right sb9.Ive just really noticed the days end price $1.09,11.22% rise today on big vol, re 15.5 mill shares thru, high of $1.12!!. More to come? Hope Mac is a happy holder.

I have got a question that some may able to put some light on this topic. It may not be related at all. There were two announcements today were about two investors reducing there holdings in ATM but yet SP shot right up again.... Are these the reasons that the SP went up or is there something else? Thanks you.

stoploss

23-11-2015, 11:12 PM

I have got a question that some may able to put some light on this topic. It may not be related at all. There were two announcements today were about two investors reducing there holdings in ATM but yet SP shot right up again.... Are these the reasons that the SP went up or is there something else? Thanks you.

The reason some are putting the price rise to , has been the recent upgrade in earnings . Increased buying activity from Australia as everyone clamours to get on the infant formula to China bandwagon .....A2 is seen as a niche premium product .

see weed

24-11-2015, 12:08 PM

Whats going on here? A silent takeover. I am lost for words.

fiasco

24-11-2015, 12:13 PM

Whats going on here? A silent takeover. I am lost for words.

I suspect now there is decent traction, the SP is catching up. Has been a long wait since .50c - ASX currently at 1.12

Ginger_steps_

24-11-2015, 12:28 PM

Whats going on here? A silent takeover. I am lost for words.
Hope your back in see weed?!

Sideshow Bob

24-11-2015, 12:50 PM

At what point doe this get silly - up 14c today.

Here I was Friday thinking it was going to take a breather at $0.99 and consolidate there for a while.

silu

24-11-2015, 12:52 PM

Sellers side is dry as. Wish I'd filled my boots more at 50c but hindsight and liquid money is a wonderful thing.

gv1

24-11-2015, 12:57 PM

I think at this levels people should be careful...aussie speculators are running the price. SML makes formula for ATM.

Nasi Goreng

24-11-2015, 01:07 PM

I'm no longer a holder but if I was I would be selling right about now. I like the product, I like the company, I like the vision but I can't imagine how much milk they will need to sell to support this valuation.

black knat

24-11-2015, 01:17 PM

Sideshow Bob

24-11-2015, 01:22 PM

Was about to say current share price values the company at $884m, but then saw the share price has gone to $1.27 so means $912m. Or about 28% more than Friday, on a company with a forecast operating EBITDA of $12m.

But it is really about the growth story and the technology - what is it worth to someone. Only going to get more expensive to take them out.

Just wish they'd had a bigger public pool at 68c! :t_down:

sb9

24-11-2015, 01:32 PM

on a company with a forecast operating EBITDA of $12m.

Its $22m as per upgraded earnings from ASM last week.

PartyPooper

24-11-2015, 01:45 PM

Just sold my holding as well.

53% return on 6 months of holding not bad at all.

*edit* compared Market cap, earnings and growth to SUM and HNZ similar size companies but much larger earnings both with good growth ahead.
there may be a bit of Xero/Tesla factor in ATM though.

winner69

24-11-2015, 01:52 PM

Its $22m as per upgraded earnings from ASM last week.

Take off the I and the T gives NPAT of say $13m

So currently at a PE of about 70

But it's a believe the story investment so anything goes

Could get bigger than Xero at this rate

Joshuatree

24-11-2015, 02:04 PM

GizyGold

24-11-2015, 02:08 PM

think this has got a long way to run at the moment, the aussies are all over it, look at the chart for "BAL" and massive volume. Can see it shooting over the billion dollar mark soon. Wow congrats to holders who have brought earlier in the year. A2M takes the 2015 best performing stock award.

winner69

24-11-2015, 02:09 PM

Roughly 174 mill shares thru since 16th Nov re 21% of shares on issue (re 819 million) traded. Someone/s buiding a stake but no SSH notice atp.Has the trend reached the bend at the end, i don't think so.In play ; very possibly.

I would hazard a guess that a decent chunk of that turnover is trader activity - possibly big parcels changing hands several times a day

Hard to say what 'real' buying or selling has been

gv1

24-11-2015, 02:09 PM

www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f8890d50/new-image

New Image Group, is seeking to sell up to half the company to raise money to expand its infant formula manufacturing, following strong demand from China and wider Asian markets.

Joshuatree

24-11-2015, 02:17 PM

I would hazard a guess that a decent chunk of that turnover is trader activity - possibly big parcels changing hands several times a day

Hard to say what 'real' buying or selling has been

Surely mate that can't all be you?:)

blobbles

24-11-2015, 02:19 PM

fiasco

24-11-2015, 02:23 PM

^^ Agree, bit more information here - https://www.fool.com.au/2015/11/20/5-market-beating-small-caps-to-power-your-returns/

Ginger_steps_

24-11-2015, 02:47 PM

While this pages posters may have done the smart thing, remember that BAL on ASX currently has a capitalisation of over 1b AUD and has a lot less revenue and arguably potential to produce goods compared to ATM. Revenue growth and potential are what people are investing in, I believe.
I don't know anything about bellamy's other than whats been covered on this thread, but in terms of comparisons - which markets do Bellamy's service? a2 are building some pretty valuable partners and sales channels for global domination.. At a guess I can see a2 overtaking Bellamy's, as increasing organic milk supply is a painstakingly long process, where as a2, whilst expensive to do so, could increase supply at a much faster rate.
And then there is also the question of what the present and future demand for premium niche infant formula from China really is, and will be (can the present demand be quantified if it exceeds the current supply?).
Should a2 announce a quickish solution to the supply shortage - then this stock will surely have a second rocket lit up under its gluteus maximus!

black knat

24-11-2015, 02:54 PM

Leftfield

24-11-2015, 03:10 PM

Hence selling half. Company is great but at a PE of about 100 there is a lot of catching up to do.

My thinking also, I have sold half my ATM today and am now sitting on a 'free' balance so am 'well positioned'. It would be truly amazing if ATM follows BAL on the ASX, however methinks best to lock in my profits at this point.

sb9

24-11-2015, 04:20 PM

You're not alone left field, seems as though Milford sold some more in the past few days, but no affect on sp though keeps bouncing up more. Must be the demand coming from Aussies, waiting to see the new SSHs to be posted soon.

stoploss

24-11-2015, 04:48 PM

Just been reading this thread back in June , July , great work see weed . You mentioned $ 1.20-1.30 a number of times .Who would have thought we would make it before December once the takeover failed to eventuate .........
Pity Fonterra can't create this much value ..... what a rockstar economy we would be if they pulled finger :)

see weed

24-11-2015, 05:34 PM

Roughly 174 mill shares thru since 16th Nov re 21% of shares on issue (re 819 million) traded. Someone/s buiding a stake but no SSH notice atp.Has the trend reached the bend at the end, i don't think so.In play ; very possibly.
490,000,000 shares have been traded from 1/6/15 to now, give or take 10,000,000, missed out counting a couple of days along the way. Congrats to all holders.:) ps, This number doesn't include Aussi shares.

see weed

24-11-2015, 05:46 PM

Hope your back in see weed?!
Got out at great profit but still got 40,000 at 50c. Wait till dust to settle, then get back in under 80c one day.

Schrodinger

24-11-2015, 06:13 PM

Got out at great profit but still got 40,000 at 50c. Wait till dust to settle, then get back in under 80c one day.

This company is big news all over Australia. I think there might be more legs in this yet. All the business channels have experts commenting on the company. Ithink most of the buying is offshore from Aust etc. Huge volume through.

Several commentators are trying to compare its valuation to Bellamy's BAL.

Leftfield

24-11-2015, 08:06 PM

This company is big news all over Australia. I think there might be more legs in this yet.

Several commentators are trying to compare its valuation to Bellamy's BAL.

Chart indicates upside potential remains, even though PE is looking a tab high.

Go them Aussies! ;) (never thought I would say that!!)
7744

Sideshow Bob

25-11-2015, 06:54 AM

Nothing new but FWIW

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11550655

black knat

25-11-2015, 09:47 AM

Another $23m gone through before opening. Those Aussies really are nuts!

winner69

25-11-2015, 12:53 PM

Did somebody get out of the wrong side of the bed this morning

What are these guys on

A2 Milk cut to underperform at First NZ as brokerage awaits proof Australian success can be replicated

Wednesday 25th November 2015
Text too small?

A2 Milk, whose shares soared 65 percent in just over two weeks, was cut to 'underperform' at brokerage First NZ Capital, which said it wants evidence the milk marketer can repeat its Australian success in other markets such as China, the UK and the US.

The shares fell 0.8 percent to $1.22 on the NZX today, having soared to a record $1.27 yesterday from 77 cents on Nov. 6. A2 Milk, whose shares also trade on the ASX, has been part of an Australian rally driven in part by media reports of a shortage of infant formula across the Tasman in the face of rising demand in that market and in China. Infant formula maker Bellamy's Australia has climbed about 32 percent in the past two weeks, while health supplements maker Blackmores, which last month announced a tie-up with Bega Cheese to market infant formula in China, jumped 35 percent at the end of October.

Analysts at First NZ say articles in the Sydney Morning Herald helped propel a2 Milk's shares in the past two weeks, starting with one on Nov. 8 that reported a shortage of infant formula on supermarket shelves, a report that the company was considering building an infant formula plant, and one that asserted the product was "the new iron ore", a reference to the boom Australia's resources sector had enjoyed supplying China's steel mills. Also helping, the company raised guidance for sales and earnings at its Nov. 17 annual meeting, which coincided with former cornerstone shareholder Freedom Foods Group selling its remaining 10.4 percent stake.

First NZ kept its share price target unchanged at $1.18, while saying successful strategy execution in Australia, the UK, China and the US "could justify a high-case DCF-based valuation of up to $1.53." The lower target price reflected an assessment of the success probability and "potential execution slippages" in a2 Milk's key markets, the brokerage said in a note.

"While we have respect for management's exceptional execution to date in Australia, our confidence in the duplication of this success elsewhere requires further progress in other markets," it said. The downgrade to 'underperform' from 'outperform' was based on a2 Milk's current stock price and the brokerage's rating framework, it said.

First NZ assumes the company's infant formula sales in Australia reach 7,500 tonnes in 2025 from a forecast 5,600 tonnes for 2016, with some of that production potentially finding its way to China via "grey channels" involving third parties. Its share of Australia's liquid milk market is assumed to reach 3.6 percent by 2025, from 2.7 percent in 2016.

Sales in China are projected to reach 3,000 tonnes a year, worth US$110 million, in 2025, from the projected 400 tonnes worth US$15 million in 2016. For the UK, the brokerage assumes a 1.5 percent share of the liquid milk market in 2025, although "until ATM demonstrates further progress and traction in the liquid milk segment, we think it is prudent to exclude possible upside from the potential introduction of other a2-type based products including ATM's infant formula portfolio," it said.
It puts the same rider on its assumptions for the US market, where it sees the company gaining 4 percent market share in California in 2025 and about 0.5 percent in the rest of the US.

Some 55 percent of First NZ's $1.18 target price is accounted for from an assumed aggregate 10,500 tonnes of infant formula sales at an average earnings margin of 27 percent by 2025, from 6,100 tonnes in 2016. A further 36 percent is from the balance of its Australian portfolio, mainly liquid milk. The remaining 9 percent of the target price comes from the risk-weighted valuation of the US and UK operations.

To justify a price target of $1.22, the company would have to lift infant formula sales to 15,500 tonnes a year.

"At this juncture, we think it is prudent to wait for confirmation from evidence of execution in ATM's direct infant formula sales into China as well as the company's planned distribution roll-out into the USA market," it said.

From sharechat.co.nz

nextbigthing

25-11-2015, 01:01 PM

Did somebody get out of the wrong side of the bed this morning

What are these guys on

A1 milk - grumpy guts

sb9

25-11-2015, 01:49 PM

Well, may be First NZ want to buy more at lower price hence the recommendation. Aussies are absolutely all over this and will chomp on anything available at lower levels.

Xerof

25-11-2015, 03:25 PM

Well, may be First NZ want to buy more at lower price hence the recommendation. Aussies are absolutely all over this and will chomp on anything available at lower levels.

Just a fleeting visit on my behalf. Well done to you guys who sold yesterday - parabolic charts are always corrected, usually quite sharply, so a good timely exit IMO

Re FCNZ - my instinct says they were the sellers overnight or this morning - it's met their target, they'll cut and run. Might be wrong, but lets see if there's a SSH soonish

see weed

25-11-2015, 05:34 PM

$112,000,000 odd wiped off since $1.27 high yesterday. Has any one started buying back in yet, at these lower prices?

stoploss

25-11-2015, 05:36 PM

$112,000,000 odd wiped off since $1.27 high yesterday. Has any one started buying back in yet, at these lower prices?

The ones I sold yesterday @ 1.24 got them back @ 1.12 today . Might have gone too early , but picking A$ 1.00 will hold .

fiasco

25-11-2015, 05:38 PM

The ones I sold yesterday @ 1.24 got them back @ 1.12 today . Might have gone too early , but picking A$ 1.00 will hold .

Likewise, picked some up also at 1.12, looking at the ASX, $1 should be fairly good support

stoploss

25-11-2015, 05:42 PM

Likewise, picked some up also at 1.12, looking at the ASX, $1 should be a fairly good resistance.

Support !!!!

fiasco

25-11-2015, 05:50 PM

:p corrected!

stoploss

25-11-2015, 06:12 PM

:p corrected!
mmm might be resistance now ....tomorrow's another day :)
Match was .99 so 109.4 off current spot .

see weed

25-11-2015, 07:04 PM

The ones I sold yesterday @ 1.24 got them back @ 1.12 today . Might have gone too early , but picking A$ 1.00 will hold .
The ones I sold @ 82c I picked up today at 5pm. for $1.11c and am very happy with that, but will only buy more if they go down further, and am prepared to keep buying right down to 80c:D.

sb9

25-11-2015, 09:27 PM

Gosh, that was some action packed two days of trading. Big volumes through and yet to see any SSHs being notified, quite interesting.

Not too bothered anyway, hopefully will find out tomorrow how many shares got allocated under SPP and tuck them away with my current holding.

theace

25-11-2015, 09:27 PM

(Being Lazy)

When do we find out how much we got allocated? And when do we see refund of the balance?

sb9

25-11-2015, 09:30 PM

I'm hoping will find out tomorrow or next day and hopefully refunds by Mon/Tue?

see weed

25-11-2015, 10:14 PM

I'm hoping will find out tomorrow or next day and hopefully refunds by Mon/Tue?
And where are all the millions of dollars of refunds going?.......PGW,IFT,ATM or maybe AIR or PEB:)

iceman

25-11-2015, 10:29 PM

And where are all the millions of dollars of refunds going?.......PGW,IFT,ATM or maybe AIR or PEB:)

Exactly. We are talking about tens of millions of dollars being returned. I wouldn´t be surprised if it was $60-70m.
Documents said allottment on 26th so should have returned money in account on 27th !!

Sideshow Bob

25-11-2015, 11:35 PM

(Being Lazy)

When do we find out how much we got allocated? And when do we see refund of the balance?

Allcations done tomorrow (26th), advice sent out by the 1st of December

tango

26-11-2015, 09:21 AM

I have been kicking myself for selling down my shareholding (please don't rub it in). Not quite prepared to buy back at this price ;) but at least I will get some in that latest offer. So far no news on how much it was oversubscribed

see weed

26-11-2015, 09:39 AM

The ones I sold yesterday @ 1.24 got them back @ 1.12 today . Might have gone too early , but picking A$ 1.00 will hold .
Looking at the depth, looks like we may have got back in a bit early. No worries, Just keep on buying 10,000 every time it goes down a cent or two:).

sb9

26-11-2015, 09:56 AM

Got allocated a paltry 1687 shares for full participation of $15K, checked online thro' link market investor login.

theace

26-11-2015, 09:57 AM

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/274128

iceman

26-11-2015, 10:19 AM

Got allocated a paltry 1687 shares for full participation of $15K, checked online thro' link market investor login.

Much more than I expected. I am surprised that only just over half of eligible SH applied for this "gift"!

blobbles

26-11-2015, 10:20 AM

Be weary here, the charts look very close to a pump and dump IMO. The question is are we at the 1st, 2nd or 3rd massive rise...

stoploss

26-11-2015, 10:48 AM

Be weary here, the charts look very close to a pump and dump IMO. The question is are we at the 1st, 2nd or 3rd massive rise...

The millions that have been going through ( + parcels of 2 mio + ) , don't look like the typical day trader buying a million of a penny mining stock ?

Harrie

26-11-2015, 11:13 AM

theace

26-11-2015, 11:15 AM

Bjauck

26-11-2015, 11:54 AM

More than I thought too.
Average application around 10,500 shares out of a possible 22000 odd shares.
Those that went for full $15k worth picked up 1687 shares. Compared with $1.07 today then a gain of 39c per share or $658.00. Not a bad return for outlaying $15k for a week or so. Still its a 4.38% net return and assuming a week opportunity cost, an annualized return of 228.10%. Bit better than $15k in the bank for a week I reckon. I am not surprised that not all shareholders applied for the full $15,000. Big increase in share price and good news came out after the beginning of the SPP for small investors. For many smaller shareholders scraping up $15,000 at relatively short notice would have been difficult.

blobbles

26-11-2015, 12:28 PM

More than I thought too.
Average application around 10,500 shares out of a possible 22000 odd shares.
Those that went for full $15k worth picked up 1687 shares. Compared with $1.07 today then a gain of 39c per share or $658.00. Not a bad return for outlaying $15k for a week or so. Still its a 4.38% net return and assuming a week opportunity cost, an annualized return of 228.10%. Bit better than $15k in the bank for a week I reckon.

What about if you had put 15k into ATM shares a week ago? Round about a $1200 gain if sold at current SP!

Harrie

26-11-2015, 01:06 PM

What about if you had put 15k into ATM shares a week ago? Round about a $1200 gain if sold at current SP!

Sure, there are many different ways of looking at it. You can choose between a risky investment or a riskless one. $658.00 is riskless $1200 is speculative.

see weed

26-11-2015, 01:08 PM

sb9

26-11-2015, 01:28 PM

Hmmm...I know its disappointing from scaling point of view, but I'm happy to take whatever is on offer especially at such a low price compared to current sp.

sb9

26-11-2015, 04:26 PM

Have rung Link market services re refund and they said it'll be processed overnight or tomorrow (if paid online) or else by cheque.

airedale

26-11-2015, 04:29 PM

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2015/11/26/ongoing-disruption-and-volatility-in-dairy-with-winners-and-losers/#more-1392.
The latest from Prof Woodward.

theace

26-11-2015, 09:11 PM

Refund is in the bank a/c

sb9

26-11-2015, 10:13 PM

Refund is in the bank a/c
Likewise .

Joshuatree

26-11-2015, 10:47 PM

A2M 2nd most discussed stock across the tasman today
SMH - A2M one of the top stocks to watch in 2016

silu

27-11-2015, 09:06 AM

Way too much money in my bank account right now. Better do something with it before it gets itchy and wants to be spent :)

Sold half of my holding yesterday at $1.15 to lock in the profits. Looking to buy some back sub $1 or quietly sob into my coffee should this turn out to be the 52week low.

iceman

27-11-2015, 10:44 AM

SPP= TWOT=Total Waste Of Time, if we are only getting 1687. It is worse than GNE float. You would of been better buying 20,000 @ 75c on 3/11/15 and selling at $1.20 after the AGM and all that pumping talk 3 days before close of SPP, and gaining $9,000. Never had any luck with SPP's eg....SNK,GNE and now ATM. They don't care about us small shareholders . They just look after the big boys.

Shareholders Association agrees with us see weed. Have come out swinging against it and say they warned ATM about this inevitable outcome.
John Hawkins:
“We discussed this whole thing with the company at the beginning. They knew our feelings about it and that we felt it was a problem waiting to happen.”

RGR367

27-11-2015, 11:52 AM

Shareholders Association agrees with us see weed. Have come out swinging against it and say they warned ATM about this inevitable outcome.
John Hawkins:
“We discussed this whole thing with the company at the beginning. They knew our feelings about it and that we felt it was a problem waiting to happen.”

All that we can do is to remember this as their "strike 1". I don't know about the rest but I keep track when a company is obviously not treating everybody fair and square.

Sideshow Bob

27-11-2015, 03:54 PM

I went for the minimum as didn't have any spare cash in the meantime, and thought would be scaled to hell. In hindsight, should have found the $15k.

From the refund worked out I got 112 shares...............;)

see weed

27-11-2015, 04:37 PM

Thats right, just a big TWOT:mad ;:.

Ginger_steps_

01-12-2015, 01:46 PM

HAs anyone NOT recieved their SPP cash back?? I sure havent...

fiasco

01-12-2015, 02:43 PM

HAs anyone NOT recieved their SPP cash back?? I sure havent...

I have received mine, did you select DC from Link Market Services? Otherwise, as I understand you would receive a cheque

Leftfield

01-12-2015, 02:58 PM

HAs anyone NOT recieved their SPP cash back?? I sure havent...

Yep DC came into my account Monday

gmatt

01-12-2015, 03:16 PM

I have received mine, did you select DC from Link Market Services? Otherwise, as I understand you would receive a cheque

Mine Friday am

Ginger_steps_

01-12-2015, 05:34 PM

I have received mine, did you select DC from Link Market Services? Otherwise, as I understand you would receive a cheque Yep Paid and requested DC - although I only applied the night before the SPP closed - perhaps they are holding for x days to maximise interest...

Bilbo

01-12-2015, 08:15 PM

HAs anyone NOT recieved their SPP cash back?? I sure havent...

I have not received mine yet either. I chose direct credit and they took the funds from my account via direct debit. Have just read the investment statement and they say refunds will be processed within 5 working days from allotment date, which I think gives them until Wednesday. A little peeved others have received the refund though. I went for the full 15K knowing I would be scaled, but would like the cash back so it can be deployed.

see weed

01-12-2015, 10:44 PM

HAs anyone NOT recieved their SPP cash back?? I sure havent...
No cheque in the mail here yet.When it arrives will have to wait another 5 days to clear. But the big question is, who gets to pocket the $62,000 interest made on the $36,000,000 excess @ 3% for 3 weeks? A2 should put on a $62,000 Christmas party for the SPPers:)

Sideshow Bob

02-12-2015, 07:22 AM

Paid mine by direct credit, so had my account and got back straight away. With my recent dealings with NZ Post, they've probably been issued and out their somewhere.....

Bilbo

02-12-2015, 10:09 AM

Paid mine by direct credit, so had my account and got back straight away. With my recent dealings with NZ Post, they've probably been issued and out their somewhere.....

Just called Link Market Services. The refund will be paid by whatever method you have set up for dividend payments, not based on how you paid for the SPP. The cheques were posted on Friday.

NT001

03-12-2015, 12:57 AM

Well whaddya know? Here's something a bit more important than whether we've got our deposit refunds. Pardon me if I take a few moments to explain in some detail.

It's been annoounced that the government is actually pumping some money into human clinical trials researching whether the claims of digestive benefits made for A2 milk are scientifically valid.

AgResearch and The a2 Milk Company are to collaborate in trials to test whether consumption of the A2 beta casein protein averts the intestinal inflammation that is thought to be associated with the A1 casein.

A2MC chief executive Geoff Babidge and AgResearch project leader Dr Matthew Barnett say the trials should help boost exports to Asia where there is a high incidence of perceived dairy intolerance.

And Mr Babidge says government support for research into the advantages of a2 Milk is extremely important as “there is a vast number of people, particularly in Asian countries, who are missing out on the health benefits of dairy because of a perceived intolerance."

But the research also has much other even more important implications, as we’ll see in a minute.

The million-dollar project is one of seven announced by the government-funded scientific body High Value Nutrition to research projects developing the “next generation” of foods targeting the Asian market. The projects involve science and industry collaborations over three years, following a contestable funding round.

HVN research director Professor David Cameron-Smith said the aim is to make New Zealand “the Silicon Valley” for healthy food, selling to a small select percentage of the Asian population who want to buy food and beverages with validated health benefits.

It’s great to see government funding aimed at testing A2’s health claims, of course.

It’s now more than a decade since leading NZ scientist Boyd Swinburn, in a report commissioned by the NZ Food Safety Authority, advised the government that it should promote research into the merits of A2 and the potential hazards of A1 milk.

He found that already at that time there was sufficient worldwide research indicating health risks in A1 to warrant the government encouraging research into the issue, and to justify dairy farmers looking at switching their herds to A2.

But skulduggery by the Food Safety Authority resulted in these findings by Professor Swinburn being effectively buried, concealed from public and media attention. Why? Well, one reason could be that a major part of the FSA’s mandate was to certify to overseas customers that the milk products exported by Fonterra (which contained A1) were safe for consumption.

One can only speculate. But until now, neither the government nor Fonterra nor NZ universities and research institutions have shown any inclination to research the A1/A2 issue, which of course could raise interesting questions about the safety not only of Fonterra’s exports but of the dairy products marketed all round the world by other dairy producers.

Governments and health authorities are understandably scared that if questions are raised about the safety of drinking cows milk, especially by infants, this could lead to major human nutritional problems worldwide – and major economic problems for the dairy industry and countries that depend on it.

Although the award of funding for AgResearch participation in a human clinical trial of A1 versus A2 is very welcome, it should be noted that the project is not intended to touch directly upon the issue of food safety. It will look into whether milk containing the A1 protein causes digestive discomfort to some consumers, not whether it can contribute to the causation of larger medical problems.

However, the announcement does actually talk of A1 causing “intestinal inflammation” and associated symptoms. And intestinal inflammation can be a contributing factor in some very nasty medical conditions, so this is potentially linking A1 at least indirectly with disease causation.

For example, an article published in the refereed scientific journal Gastroenterology in 2011 under the heading “Intestinal Inflammation and Cancer” stated that research results provided “compelling support for the role of inflammation in colon carcinogenesis”.

That doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get colon cancer if you drink A1 milk, but it does show that scientific research is starting to point to specific connections between the A1 milk gene and big human diseases – not only cancer but also heart disease, diabetes and the autistic spectrum

The a2 Milk Company isn’t raising such scary scenarios publicly just yet, for good political, legal and commercial reasons, but they will start being noted in the media as time goes by.

An earlier collaborative study by AgResearch and a2MC, involving laboratory rats, found that food took longer to pass through the stomach and intestines of those consuming A1 than of those fed A2. This was described in a peer-reviewed scientific journal last year as consistent with the observation of digestive discomfort experienced by human consumers of A1.

Fonterra’s chief scientific officer Jeremy Hill was quoted by the NZ Herald at that time as saying this finding needed to be validated in human trials. That’s what is now about to be put to the test.

CatO'Tonic

03-12-2015, 07:36 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11554925

biker

03-12-2015, 07:47 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11554925

Hmmmmm interesting. Here's hoping Ag Research is not full of Fonterra sympathisers or worse....
Fonterra are enormously powerful in NZ and it wouldn't surprise me if they provided Govt pressure for this study an that it provides a negative result. Nothing would surprise me when Fonterra and this Government are involved.
IMO this is not necessarily good news. But of course the media will spin it that way.

Yes I do think we are capable of this in New Zealand.

NT001

03-12-2015, 10:48 AM

And here's a YouTube video clip in which AgResearch's project director says clearly that "we believe" the clinical trials will verify that A1 and A2 milk produce different results in human digestion and that "intestinal inflammation" will be identified as a problem. If this is indeed the outcome, the medical implications could be very important (see last half-dozen paragraphs of post 4920 on this thread).It will prove that there are medical risks to consuming non-A2 cows milk. The AgResearch project leader seems pretty enthusiastic to get on with it - what he calls some "pretty funky" research.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjDNFcPEV1E&feature=youtu.be

see weed

04-12-2015, 05:30 PM

Looks like the shines coming off. The dusts starting to settle. Everyone has had their full for now. SP starting to drift sideways and down bit by bit. Good for late comers, $1.05 by Christmas anyone or maybe $1. I'll be in like a rat up a drain pipe if it goes lower than that. :D. PS still waiting for fricken refund cheque:t_down:.

CatO'Tonic

04-12-2015, 09:03 PM

Volume is certainly down, indicating the party may be taking a break for now. It got a bit crazy for a couple of weeks, with upwards of ten million shares changing hands every day. The market in general has certainly had a rough day today, not a big deal for the long-termers though. Are you still handing out flyers in the supermarkets see weed?

see weed

05-12-2015, 06:37 AM

NT001

06-12-2015, 05:05 PM

It looks like the A2 branding issue in Australia, a2MC’s biggest market, is likely to intensify following the action of one of its main rivals in launching a challenge that a2MC may be forced to respond to vigorously.

Dairy Farmers has launched a new suite of milk products branded "A2 Protein" which gives the impression their milk is the "original milk" (which it is not), and that it is “A2 Protein", (which it is not, although it does contain some).

http://www.dairyfarmers.com.au/dairy-products/milk/original-milk-%E2%80%93-a2-protein/

Supporters of a2MC in Australia are already crying foul and urging consumers and investors to file protests with various authorities about dishonest labelling. It may also be a breach of a2MC’s trademark rights.

As one commenter on an Australian investment website has noted, a2MC has to some extent left the way open for this kind of marketing skulduggery by trying to avoid an outright confrontation with mainstream dairy, but might now have to take its gloves off.

Up till now it has mainly promoted A2 milk on the basis that it is good for you, but this skates around the more important fact – and the hub of the A1/A2 dispute – that A1 is actually BAD for you – it causes digestive problems to many consumers and is now being linked irrefutably with some major medical conditions.

Whether or not a2MC feels forced to challenge Dairy Farmers through legal and bureaucratic channels for misleading advertising, false labelling and/or violation of its IP, Dairy Farmers’ action will certainly raise to a new level the public and media debate over the difference between a2 Milk and its rivals.

The likelihood is that this will ultimately damage mainstream dairy and benefit a2MC. The more explanation the public receives about the basic facts of the A1/A2 issue the better. But meanwhile we could see a new level of hostility between entrenched dairy interests (including Dairy Australia and Fonterra) and a2MC, which may not be pretty.

kizame

06-12-2015, 07:07 PM

NT001

06-12-2015, 07:37 PM

I know I have said this before and NT001 has answered before too, BUT for the life of me i cannot see why Fonterra do not take A2 out and have this company as the growth initiative for getting at least some fresh dairy products into the rest of the world markets,YES there are issues as NT001 has pointed out before,but you simply cannot ignore what A2 are achieving.
Fonterra maybe need to back down on their stance on A2 milk and buy the company.

In some ways I think the case for doing this must increasingly have its attractions, although it would be like swallowing a dead rat and deeply humiliating, not to mention the financial cost. Fonterra is hard up cash-wise, and a2MC now has a market cap that no one would have dreamed of until very recently. Analysts are already questioning its acquisition and investment policy. And the questions about what to do with its new acquisition would still remain extremely difficult. Moreover, Fonterra has just re-elected its previous board, so it's not as if there was a new bunch of directors mandated to bring about change. Still hard to see it happening, IMO.

It will be interesting to see any details that emerge of Fonterra's breeding programme for its big new dairy farms in China. That could be very informative. If the cows are preferentially bred A2-A2, that could indicate an impending shift in Fonterra's stance, even if unannounced.