ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[nextbigthing]

Out at an average of 252 this morning and now waiting to buy back. Looking good at the moment. Such a predictable market reaction.

Why were you so sure that would happen?

[777]

A huge gain like that is usually an over reaction and that brings out the profit takers and subsequent drop. The share is obviously worth more than what has been trading at in recent weeks but that value is yet to be determined.

[Golfer01]

What a roller coaster! I put a sell in at $3.00 when at $2.60 (11am). Had a feeling that when Ozzie opened it would (could) jump again. What about the "poor" souls who got in at $2.50+.... Guess I'll just have to wait until their next forecast upgrade in 2 months time.

[Snoopy]

My key points from 17th announcement would be to focus on below:

- Performance for 1H trading, how much higher than earlier earnings update


Last year the share price was 50c (if you believe that figure was fair value). Revenue for HY2015 was $74.8m. Now (HY2016) $139.2m. But infant formula now a much greater proportion of revenue: Now 53%, up from 22% in HY2015. So lets say profitability on product has doubled overall. That means 'equivalent revenue' of 2 x $139.2m = $278.4m. That makes a multiplication factor of :

$278.4/ $74.8 = 3.7

3.7 x 50c = $1.85

So it looks like the share price increase has outstripped the underlying company performance.



- Chinese IF (infant formula) market update and how much further potential still lie in there


China at last turning an EBITDA profit (not the same as a NPAT profit).

EBITDA Margin: 1.2/8.4 = 14.2%

Compare with the same figure for Australia and New Zealand

34.5 /127.9 = 26.9%

So heaps of the most profitable line going to China. But even with next to no infrastructure costs borne by ATM, the Chinese market is still only half as profitable as the home market. It might be worry if ATM started selling ordinary milk in China then. They could start racking up some big losses on that.



- US expansion plans and how they are tracking
- UK market performance and any plans to launch IF into that region


Big increase in the losses in the UK and USA markets. It's all in the market development plan they say. Fair enough, but it still looks like a long hard grind in the UK and USA from here. Looks like USA in particular is in trouble.

ATM still looks very much like a one trick pony still to me. The ANZ market is looking good, although how much that is being propped up by indirect baby formula sales to China is unknown. Actual direct sales to China looking good, but not looking like that market will overtake ANZ (or should that be ANZ/China as one).

Actual NPAT of $10.1m was a positive surprise. That should stay the need for any more capital raisings.

Overall though, it looks like at north of $2, the share price has got way ahead of the underlying business. I re-iterate my warning to shareholders. Fundamentally ATM is severely overvalued, and still has the potential to halve in price overnight.

SNOOPY

[see weed]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to sp when ASX opens, might try $3???

Where's see weed these days, are you still in buddy....
Yes still here. Been up the Waitakere for a bush walk and back to Titirangi for lunch. Whats happening? am happy with the ones I still have.:)

[blobbles]

Almost 15% of all shares traded yesterday on both markets (87m in Aus, 15m in NZ). Big big volume day!

[Beagle]

ATM now worth more than 50% of value of Air NZ and about 30% of value of Spark. Sheesh!

Added some useful perspective yesterday mid-morning and may have got a few sellers thinking...what with AIR about to announce ~ $500m before tax next week...kind of puts $10m after tax into perspective doesn't it. Didn't one of the major brokers value this a little while back at ~ $1.10 ?

[Snoopy]

Added some useful perspective yesterday mid-morning and may have got a few sellers thinking...what with AIR about to announce ~ $500m before tax next week...kind of puts $10m after tax into perspective doesn't it. Didn't one of the major brokers value this a little while back at ~ $1.10 ?

Declared after tax profit is not the measuring stiick for ATM. Management policy seems to have been to spend all profits on market development, and in doing so let NPAT reduce to zero. Hence in my summary of results, I noted an actual profit as positive surprise. The half year after tax profit profit could have been nearly double $10m if ATM pulled out ofthe USA and UK. But if they did that,there goes the growth premium....

That $1.10 broker valuation IIRC was assuming the growth markets of the UK, USA and China all performed to perfection too.

ATM as a company is a great example of how to develop a consumer business. The capital raising at above the prevailing market price last year was a master stroke. The problem I have with ATM is not with the product, roll out strategy or management. It is with the public, mainly aussie speculators if the evolution in the share register is to be believed, driving the share price up to a level that is so completely divorced with the reality of the business, that it has got crazy.

Some here have criticised Freedom Foods for selling out too cheaply. But these guys would have a pretty good idea of what the company was worth. They chose, on balance, to sell and reinvest elsewhere. Just because the share price more or less doubled after that doesn't make Freedom Foods fools. Markets do not always behave rationally with small cap (in ASX terms) shares like this.

SNOOPY

[NeverQuestion]

I find it somewhat interesting that a company with the growth prospects of ATM..

Who just released a 1Q report like the one this week is sliding backwards in share price..

[Nasi Goreng]

I am not surprised at all. Its a traders stock right now and if you are a holder, you have had multiple chances to cash in on the frenzy. A double top is now in place so big resistance around $2.50 and potential for this rocket to come all the way back down to earth if it fails to hold onto $1.70.

[drcjp]

I find it somewhat interesting that a company with the growth prospects of ATM..

Who just released a 1Q report like the one this week is sliding backwards in share price..

Market hubris. Knowing when its silly something to learn I guess, Lots of buyers out there now who have watched their investment slide back 25% in the space of a few days will be hurting.
SUM also down from a hubris of around 4.25 last year. Analysts have ATM at around 1.87. Funny that.

[sb9]

Both A2M and BAL are at the mercy of traders (shorters) these days. They're having game with those two stocks.

However, at the end of day it all depends on your investment objective and what's your margin of safety is. I for one not too concerned with day to day movements as I'm in for long haul (having got mine at 58c and few more at recent capital issue at 68c).

[Bjauck]

Market hubris. Knowing when its silly something to learn I guess, Lots of buyers out there now who have watched their investment slide back 25% in the space of a few days will be hurting.
SUM also down from a hubris of around 4.25 last year. Analysts have ATM at around 1.87. Funny that.

I am not sure why you singled out SUM...RYM is also down about 5% from 6/8/2015 when SUM was $4.25. Which perhaps suggests a sector re-rating (unless hubris also affected RYM?). However with ATM, it does seem as though the good set of results did not matter as far as the current traders of this stack are concerned.
Disc:Hold RYM SUM ATM

[RGR367]

If the Market offers it back at a lower price what it accepted last time at a higher price then why not just buy it again?

[Sideshow Bob]

Farmers Weekly

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/c965c23c#/c965c23c/11

[blobbles]

Farmers Weekly

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/c965c23c#/c965c23c/11


Great read.

UK break even end of June. Then its likely PROFIT. Not sure how SNOOPY will spin next years UK profit into a loss? Surely will be an interesting read.

A2 now successful in 2 markets, or 3 markets - fresh milk Aus, powdered milk Aus, powerdered milk China (and potentially fresh milk China). Soon to be 4 markets with fresh milk UK. While US is going slower than expected, the fact that they have, or about to, succeed in 2 similar western markets is an excellent sign.

So not sure how SNOOPY arrives at the conclusion "one trick pony"?? About to make ~$47m from ~340m revenue while still losing money by supporting not yet profitable markets. Likely to have been $60m profit if they weren't in UK/USA. Growth rate of ~100%. Supply side shouldn't have a problem for the next 2 years, according to the article and they know how much they are growing.

Surely this is the sort of company statistics investors like us should be salivating over.

[Leftfield]

Great read.

UK break even end of June. Then its likely PROFIT. Not sure how SNOOPY will spin next years UK profit into a loss? Surely will be an interesting read.

A2 now successful in 2 markets, or 3 markets - fresh milk Aus, powdered milk Aus, powerdered milk China (and potentially fresh milk China). Soon to be 4 markets with fresh milk UK. While US is going slower than expected, the fact that they have, or about to, succeed in 2 similar western markets is an excellent sign.

So not sure how SNOOPY arrives at the conclusion "one trick pony"?? About to make ~$47m from ~340m revenue while still losing money by supporting not yet profitable markets....

Don't forget further options in the NZ market when current distribution agreement ends.

[Snoopy]

Great read.

UK break even end of June. Then its likely PROFIT. Not sure how SNOOPY will spin next years UK profit into a loss? Surely will be an interesting read.


A2 has grouped the UK and USA markets together going forwards. So it won't be possible to find out how profitable UK is. I would virtually guarantee that the UK and USA together will still be loss making though.



A2 now successful in 2 markets, or 3 markets - fresh milk Aus, powdered milk Aus, powerdered milk China (and potentially fresh milk China).


We hear stories of Chinese Australians buying up infant formula in Australia and selling it on the black market in China. Meanwhile A2 is establishing their own sales channels in China. It is not clear to me how opening up A2s own direct sales into China will affect the sales of infant formula in Australia. It could be a zero sum game with growth in direct China sales being directly offset by falling infant formula sales in Australia. Also remember that A2 have no production in China. All China product is sourced frm Australia and New Zealand.

A2 declare 'Australia and New Zealand' and 'China and Other Asia' as separate markets. I put it to you that it is really just one market: Australia and New Zealand, with some export sales to China. The infant formula market in China is far less profitable than the "Australian and New Zealand" markets, despite infant formula being the highest value product. It seems unlikely then that selling lower value product into China (fresh milk) can boost profits significantly in that market.

This is where my 'one trick pony' comment comes from.



Soon to be 4 markets with fresh milk UK. While US is going slower than expected, the fact that they have, or about to, succeed in 2 similar western markets is an excellent sign.


EBITDA break even in the UK is not really succeeding. EDITDA break even just means making a smaller loss overall.



So not sure how SNOOPY arrives at the conclusion "one trick pony"?? About to make ~$47m from ~340m revenue while still losing money by supporting not yet profitable markets. Likely to have been $60m profit if they weren't in UK/USA. Growth rate of ~100%. Supply side shouldn't have a problem for the next 2 years, according to the article and they know how much they are growing.


Again EBITDA profit is not the same as after tax profit. Growth rates of 100% ultimately means 100% more cows in the supply chain. Not impossible. But not as easy as a software producer who can pull their resources out of cyberspace.



Surely this is the sort of company statistics investors like us should be salivating over.


All the salivating is already on the table. The share price today already assumes real profits in the USA and further growth into other markets not even on management's horizon yet. I'm not saying this won't happen eventually. I am just saying the share price has got ahead of actual profitable growth on any realistic time horizon. Come back in ten years and $2 might look like value. Until then ATM looks like a money losing proposition for investors who jump in today, even if the company in operating market terms continues to develop according to managements plans.

SNOOPY

[kizame]

Its also worth noting that the shareprice has hit 2.50 and just lately 2.60 both times it was slammed back down to where it is now.
With the latest result just out, and nothing special happening to make the share price continue from here,I think the growth is built in at the moment. The simple fact that the price didn't linger at 2.60 and falls right back to where it was before the announcement,tells me it isn't going any further for the time being. Most people would have to be very happy with where it is now anyway.

[Ginger_steps_]

Its also worth noting that the shareprice has hit 2.50 and just lately 2.60 both times it was slammed back down to where it is now.
With the latest result just out, and nothing special happening to make the share price continue from here,I think the growth is built in at the moment. The simple fact that the price didn't linger at 2.60 and falls right back to where it was before the announcement,tells me it isn't going any further for the time being. Most people would have to be very happy with where it is now anyway. Its very popular in aus at the moment, sentiment is strong and they have released 3 substantial profit upgrades in 4 months, with another likely to come soon. Add in instos, I think this stock has got plenty of volatility ahead over the next 3 months, with a bias to the upside! IMO if a2 continue on this trajectory for the next 12 months we could see it trading at a PE of 60-80 (not Snoopy's PE!!), such as many other growth companies on the ASX.

On another note - I have moved from my little hick town to Coffs Harbour. I was in Coles today and noticed a2 400g tins of a2 platinum (usually 900g), sold at a price premium of course. They are the only brand from what I can see who have these small tins - their profit margins are being fed meat pies hourly!

[kizame]

Its very popular in aus at the moment, sentiment is strong and they have released 3 substantial profit upgrades in 4 months, with another likely to come soon. Add in instos, I think this stock has got plenty of volatility ahead over the next 3 months, with a bias to the upside! IMO if a2 continue on this trajectory for the next 12 months we could see it trading at a PE of 60-80 (not Snoopy's PE!!), such as many other growth companies on the ASX.

On another note - I have moved from my little hick town to Coffs Harbour. I was in Coles today and noticed a2 400g tins of a2 platinum (usually 900g), sold at a price premium of course. They are the only brand from what I can see who have these small tins - their profit margins are being fed meat pies hourly!

Ginger steps, say they do 20m net profit,I work that out as .028 cents per share,putting them on a pe for the year of 65.
You must be looking a year or so ahead with your PEs?

[Ginger_steps_]

Ginger steps, say they do 20m net profit,I work that out as .028 cents per share,putting them on a pe for the year of 65.
You must be looking a year or so ahead with your PEs? Yep sorry that wasn't too clear. I thinks its safe to assume that with formula supply increasing monthly, direct sales increasing heavily, and UK reaching breakeven - they will smash forecasts and fetch a NPAT in the high twenties. Hence why I think we will see a further profit upgrade in the next couple of moths. Also Interesting to hear a2 discussing the possibility for dividends in the not too distant future.

[silu]

Bloomberg writes about A2 milk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/the-milk-you-ve-never-heard-of-that-s-rocking-the-dairy-world

[Golfer01]

Bloomberg writes about A2 milk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/the-milk-you-ve-never-heard-of-that-s-rocking-the-dairy-world

Great article. Might see some US investors buying in. A bit disappointing though, I thought A2 was a NZ based company! Once they get on top of their supply they'll be exporting the infant formula to USA.

[dobby41]

A bit disappointing though, I thought A2 was a NZ based company!

They are - those Aussies will steal anything successful.

[stoploss]

This is what Bloomberg have to say in reply ....

Hi thanks for your feedback. ATM certainly got its start in New Zealand and retains an office in Auckland but all its key management are in the Sydney headquarters now, including MD Geoff Babidge. Australia is also, by far, its main milk market. The story details how ATM was started by two Kiwis and how it is also listed on the NZX.

[Trigger]

Pavlova, Pharlap, Crowded House, ATM...what next?

[stoploss]

Pavlova, Pharlap, Crowded House, ATM...what next?

I wouldn't describe Nestle as anything but a Swiss giant ....suppose it's headquarters is in Switzerland , but they for sure sell most of their products in the Americas .....

[skid]

Pavlova, Pharlap, Crowded House, ATM...what next?

the flag (a few times):)

[dobby41]

At least their spin doctors are in NZ.
2 board members in NZ
2 in Aus
1 in UK

[westcoaster]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/77418974/the-a2-milk-company-is-rocking-the-dairy-world What a company :)

[dobby41]

The spin team is doing a great job

[NT001]

I think the most significant point about this excellent article is that it includes a quote from Fonterra boss Theo Spierings dismissing A2 as just a "marketing concept".

That surely puts to rest any idea that Fonterra might make a takeover bid for a2MC, or might launch its own brand of A2 milk in competition with a2MC.

It will also be seen as a rather curious and ignorant comment to make, especially by NZ dairy farmers who have been quietly converting their herds to A2 and are looking forward to a2MC expanding its operations in NZ as from next year with higher payouts than Fonterra's pathetic offering.

[Joshuatree]

Dream publicity going bacterial.....On Bloomberg as well as...... isa extra omnifeed.com, .....global advisors, .....metro tell,muckrake.com, ..... reddit.com ....... dumb short... dream builder portal.... google .... finance geek.....hotcopper....africanewshub....etcetcetc

The Milk You've Never Heard of Rocking the Dairy World (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjz2a_FgJ_LAhUHE5QKHWD-B_EQqQIIHzAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticl es%2F2016-02-29%2Fthe-milk-you-ve-never-heard-of-that-s-rocking-the-dairy-world&usg=AFQjCNFfeGjMSSEacVwzyQcGWj-vJP-g3w&sig2=u7a9mGOWyUlx225OVMo76w)

[GTM 3442]

Dream publicity going bacterial.....On Bloomberg as well as...... isa extra omnifeed.com, .....global advisors, .....metro tell,muckrake.com, ..... reddit.com ....... dumb short... dream builder portal.... google .... finance geek.....hotcopper....africanewshub....etcetcetc

The Milk You've Never Heard of Rocking the Dairy World (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjz2a_FgJ_LAhUHE5QKHWD-B_EQqQIIHzAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticl es%2F2016-02-29%2Fthe-milk-you-ve-never-heard-of-that-s-rocking-the-dairy-world&usg=AFQjCNFfeGjMSSEacVwzyQcGWj-vJP-g3w&sig2=u7a9mGOWyUlx225OVMo76w)


English. . . . . please. . . . simple. . . . sentences. . . . with. . . . verbs. . . nouns. . . . adjectives. . . please. . .?

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like Challenger quietly lifting holding - up from 5.15% to 6.21%

[Joshuatree]

English. . . . . please. . . . simple. . . . sentences. . . . with. . . . verbs. . . nouns. . . . adjectives. . . please. . .?
G>>>T>>>>M>>>> Thos E***.... are ..**..​WEBSITES....**...that.....are ****spreading......ATM.....like .....wildfire..... Geddittt....Okeh....

[sb9]

Seems as though the shorters on ASX have got a temporary lid on sp.

[longy]

Seems as though the shorters on ASX have got a temporary lid on sp.


I am in Gold coast atm and tried out A2 milk for the first time. It is really good to me. It isn't cheap but I am sold on taste.

[777]

I am in Gold coast atm and tried out A2 milk for the first time. It is really good to me. It isn't cheap but I am sold on taste.

What is the price difference?

[sb9]

I am in Gold coast atm and tried out A2 milk for the first time. It is really good to me. It isn't cheap but I am sold on taste.

Great to know and appreciate your feedback. I certainly think this thing has big future.

[Mike Johnson]

Where can you buy it in Christchurch, New Zealand, I have tried a few supermarkets but no luck yet

[Kirk]

Where can you buy it in Christchurch, New Zealand, I have tried a few supermarkets but no luck yet


Countdown Northwood normally have some and so do Northlands i think

[NT001]

My understanding from earlier discussion was that it's stocked by most Countdown and Fresh Choice supermarkets in Christchurch. The NZ national processors of A2 milk, Fresha Valley, have a close tie-up with Countdown and have said if your local Countdown doesn't stock it, just ask the store management to do so.

[Carpenterjoe]

help me out here guys, Atm will need cash within the next 12-18 months to sustain revenue growth, is it coming via CR or some sort of Partner? Have I missed something to value this company at 1.3 billion?

I could build and sell 116m worth of houses but if they cost me 125m, not really good for the long term. (referring to HY Cash Flow).

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11599487

More free publicity and exposure....

[whatsup]

A very good business article in todays N Z Herald on ATM , can some paste the line for this non techie ?

[sb9]

A very good business article in todays N Z Herald on ATM , can some paste the line for this non techie ?

See below of my earlier post, it has link.

[fungus pudding]

A very good business article in todays N Z Herald on ATM , can some paste the line for this non techie ?


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11599487

[kiwidollabill]

Interesting discussion about 'grey market' exports through Oz. This has been a problem for some time. The Australians are a bit behind the times in regards to reg in this area.

[mondograss]

They should look at something like ASX:BFC and their Brandlock system etc. You've got to get out ahead of these things before your brand suffers.

[Golfer01]

Interesting discussion about 'grey market' exports through Oz. This has been a problem for some time. The Australians are a bit behind the times in regards to reg in this area.

I suspect the Ozzies are reviewing this closely and its just a matter of time before they introduce tighter controls around exports of commercial size shipments to China. Especially given they have a FTA agreement in place now. I know there is a NZ MPI discussion document currently seeking industry input which will further enhance/tighten the control of dairy material and products to overseas markets.

[kiwidollabill]

I suspect the Ozzies are reviewing this closely and its just a matter of time before they introduce tighter controls around exports of commercial size shipments to China. Especially given they have a FTA agreement in place now. I know there is a NZ MPI discussion document currently seeking industry input which will further enhance/tighten the control of dairy material and products to overseas markets.

Yep, I ran into a senior exce of the Oz dairy regulator at a conference a wee while back - they are aware of their issues (and face a lot of external investment in the sector) and have been looking to NZ for suitable templates to follow.

[Mike Johnson]

Thank you ,I'll have a look tomorrow

[Lewylewylewy]

H has this company ever suggested that they would consider paying dividends once they're no longer in growth mode?

[Ginger_steps_]

H has this company ever suggested that they would consider paying dividends once they're no longer in growth mode?
Yea they (G.B) indicated in a media interview 2 weeks ago that they could now begin to entertain the idea.

[kiwidollabill]

Wouldnt it be prudent to hold off on a divvy? Form an established position in their strategic markets first?

[King1212]

Alright people. I am so curious about the milk. Today, I went to countdown and grab a two ltr Fresha valley A2 milk. I am not a big milk drinker. As too much milk, made my stomach uncomfortable. Just normally add it on tea or coffee.

My wife is worst, farting all day if she drink normall milk. She could handle UHT one but not too much (certain brand) Again, just on tea or coffee. If she drinks anchor, u guys don't want to be next to her:D. We are not a lactose free, we both could handle small amount of milk. Our doctor advised us to drink milk (osteoporosis prevention when u get old)

Now, my initial verdicts about A2:
1. Price is okay, $4.90 affordable.
2. Taste: sweet, smooth, flavoursome, deep milky and creamy taste. I really like it.
3. Consistency: thicker compare with my son's anchor milk.

Will post the result next couple days. Me n my wife will drink A2 that I bought today.

Wish us well guys.

To be continued........

[Lewylewylewy]

Keep us up to date on the crud vapours situation. Also, you may consider updating the folks at poo-gas-weekly.com as they'll be on the edge of their seats (but then those guys always have an awkward seated position).

Seriously though, I'm curious if the science actually helps people, or rather, that people can see the point of difference for themselves. Or smell the point of difference, in your case...

[Leftfield]

Seriously though, I'm curious if the science actually helps people, or rather, that people can see the point of difference for themselves. ..

I've posted it before, but A2 seriously helped this cynic when I developed either mild crones or irritable bowl syndrome. A2 is now the only cows milk my tummy can handle.

For what it is worth my Doc is of the opinion that A1 related digestive problems increase with age, so look out all you young ones!

[King1212]

I've posted it before, but A2 seriously helped this cynic when I developed either mild crones or irritable bowl syndrome. A2 is now the only cows milk my tummy can handle.

For what it is worth my Doc is of the opinion that A1 related digestive problems increase with age, so look out all you young ones!


So so far so good guys...no weird gassy n uncomfortable tummies. Still more than half left.

[warthog]

Our doctor advised us to drink milk (osteoporosis prevention when u get old)

Obviously the causal/correlation question applies, but the hog has often noted that countries with the highest consumption of dairy also have the highest incidence of degenerative bone conditions. And vice-versa.

[Carpenterjoe]

I see A2 is now advertising it's ice cream on Australian free to air TV,

[Ginger_steps_]

Wouldnt it be prudent to hold off on a divvy? Form an established position in their strategic markets first?
Yes it would, he was just answering a question put to him. I imagine that they will pay a dividend once all current markets are firing along.

[sb9]

Bit perplexed of the opening price today, as I thought it might open at 1.85 based Aus last evening close of 1.675 with current FX rate of .9060.

[okay]

So so far so good guys...no weird gassy n uncomfortable tummies. Still more than half left.

Let's hope this is you and the wife by the end of the week:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd8TJHP_dp0

[waikare]

I see A2 is now advertising it's ice cream on Australian free to air TV,

Just returned today form visiting the grandkids in Perth, local TV were showing a A2 add on TV, I thought it was a very plain sort of add, rather telling it’s here as opposed to trying to sell the product. if I recall correctly the add didn’t offer any benefits that may be gained by consuming this milk, or were it could be purchased.

[King1212]

Let's hope this is you and the wife by the end of the week:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd8TJHP_dp0


Hahah:D so far so good...will post the result this weekend!

[see weed]

Who were the lucky ones picking up at $1.69- $1.70 yesterday? Went down to Te Awamutu today and talked to a couple of farmers who had never heard of a2 milk. So told them to change over their cows, and go home and google it.:)

[sb9]

Who were the lucky ones picking up at $1.69- $1.70 yesterday? Went down to Te Awamutu today and talked to a couple of farmers who had never heard of a2 milk. So told them to change over their cows, and go home and google it.:)

Not me the lucky one, whoever did good on them.

On other note, falling NZD v AUD is good for their revenue as the financial statements are reported in NZD and their actual sales are in AUD, win-win situation, sweet!!!

[King1212]

Okay people! We both had finished the milk. I can confirm that we both don't suffer any discomfort in our tummies. No gassy or hurt tummies. In fact, our digestion system are much better! For the first time! Feel so good with dairy now! To be honest we won't be feeling so good before drinking milk, thanks to a2!

in my opinion, this company is going to be big! Only if they can do the marketing well! Many people in the world is suffering symptoms like I do when they drink normal milk! Especially the Asian!( how do I know, because I am one of them in the world:D

i might sell my exiting shares n invest in this company! Please don't follow me, go and try the milk yourself then decide whether the milk is the exactly what I mentioned before. Only countdown sells it.

Very bright future this company! Below is the recent presentation from a2m.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160310/pdf/435r34t22hqdrp.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Okay people! We both had finished the milk. I can confirm that we both don't suffer any discomfort in our tummies. No gassy or hurt tummies. In fact, our digestion system are much better! For the first time! Feel so good with dairy now! To be honest we won't be feeling so good before drinking milk, thanks to a2!

in my opinion, this company is going to be big! Only if they can do the marketing well! Many people in the world is suffering symptoms like I do when they drink normal milk! Especially the Asian!( how do I know, because I am one of them in the world:D

i might sell my exiting shares n invest in this company! Please don't follow me, go and try the milk yourself then decide whether the milk is the exactly what I mentioned before. Only countdown sells it.

Very bright future this company! Below is the recent presentation from a2m.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160310/pdf/435r34t22hqdrp.pdf

Welcome to the brotherhood K1212.

and you didn't even get a phamplet from SeeWeed! :t_up: Now you just need to tell 2 people, then they tell 2 people, and they tell 2 people.......

[okay]

Very interesting feedback King, thanks for sharing your trial result with us. Is this digestive discomfort with dairy milk fairly common with other Asian friends/relatives/people that you know?

[King1212]

Very interesting feedback King, thanks for sharing your trial result with us. Is this digestive discomfort with dairy milk fairly common with other Asian friends/relatives/people that you know?

Like I said......80 to 90 persen of them....again how do I know? I used to run a catering company, cater to Chinese, Japanese, European and Korean tourists...most of them could not handle normal milk? Again, how do I know? European groups tend to drink more Milk in the breakfast time. How do I know? I was the one order the food! I did ask many of them why they could not drink milk? They said without speaking English with one hand on thier tummies with uncomfortable face! For sure even u could not speak thier language, u certainly knew what the heck it means!:D

[King1212]

Anyway, my KiwiSaver provider sent me an article. I thought I share it with u guys!

We've all felt a little like Alice over the last while. There have been moments when we've questioned the sanity of the share market, and moments when we've had our sanity questioned. Share prices have whipsawed on fleeting sentiment often driven by little more than the latest headline. Understanding the difference between investing and speculating is key to capitalising on these conditions.
As investors we establish the worth of a company by focussing on its ability to generate profits, or "earnings power". Earnings power evolves gradually with changes in the company's markets, and its competitive position. Consequently the worth of a company is relatively stable in the short term, and changes steadily over the long term.
In contrast speculating starts with a focus on share prices. Over the short term share prices are driven by people's appetite for risk which, being a human emotion, can be volatile. With little understanding of the companies issuing the shares he owns, the speculator explains changing share prices in terms of stories which was rely more on headlines than reasoned analysis.

Very interesting article right?

"A company by focussing on its ability to generate profits, or "earnings power". Earnings power evolves gradually with changes in the company's markets, and its competitive position" I think we have found the star! A2 milk company!

Congratulation to all shareholders that got in when it was still $1 ish! So jealous!

[okay]

Haha, nothing like first hand observation to see the potential of a product ala Peter Lynch style.
I'm getting the feeling Asia may really be the place for A2 to be if they can control, market and co-ordinate it right.:)

[sb9]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160310/pdf/435r34t22hqdrp.pdf

Here it is guys, the next big thing in their growth plans.

Released to ASX late in the evening outlining US investor presentation.

Might see that first thing on NZX tmrw.

[sb9]

Thanks King1212 for sharing your invaluable first hand experience. Don't want to make you feel jealous, I'm one of those people who got in under 60c mark, mind you it was not all smooth ride was sitting on paper loss for more than a year or so before it turned around and never looked back.

[Cricketfan]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160310/pdf/435r34t22hqdrp.pdf

Here it is guys, the next big thing in their growth plans.

Released to ASX late in the evening outlining US investor presentation.

Might see that first thing on NZX tmrw.

First time I've seen the packaging. Does 0% fat free mean it's 100% fat?

[King1212]

Thanks King1212 for sharing your invaluable first hand experience. Don't want to make you feel jealous, I'm one of those people who got in under 60c mark, mind you it was not all smooth ride was sitting on paper loss for more than a year or so before it turned around and never looked back.

Luckly u sb9! I guess it is not too late now before a2 being recognised in the world! Especially Asia with more than 1.3 T of population who are thirsty to drink A2 milk! The SP will be then unimaginable high?

[sb9]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160310/pdf/435r34t22hqdrp.pdf

Here it is guys, the next big thing in their growth plans.

Released to ASX late in the evening outlining US investor presentation.

Might see that first thing on NZX tmrw.

Had quick skim through the presentation docs.

First impression very slick and easy read highlighting key metrics. Most impressed!!!

[waikare]

I find the shareholder make up interesting for a company that was first listed in 2004 on the NZX Alternative Market, then on main board in 2012, whereas it was first listed in Aust. 2012.

64.7% of the shareholders are Aussies. and 32.5% are us Kiwi’s, ……………


Ps got in at 22 cents Sept 2011

[Golfer01]

All I need now is for Blis Technologies to align themselves with A2 and integrate their probiotics with/in A2 infant formula and I'll have a "cash cow"!!! It'll be a match made in heaven..

[mondograss]

Added to the ASX 300 and the All Ords today.

[sb9]

Added to the ASX 300 and the All Ords today.

Sweet, let's rock and roll. Interesting to see what happens when ASX opens.

[Sideshow Bob]

Added to the ASX 300 and the All Ords today.

Would that have been pre-empted/known?

Seems to have barely made any difference at this stage.

[sb9]

Would that have been pre-empted/known?

Seems to have barely made any difference at this stage.

There was quite bit of talk of the inclusion over on HC (Hot Copper) for past couple of weeks or so.

Takes a while to kick in the action and we're dependant on ASX prices moves.

[Gunny]

I think its not until close of play on the 18th.

Gunny

[sb9]

I think its not until close of play on the 18th.

Gunny

Correct, they still got bit of time to take positions. Next week could be where all the action is.

[King1212]

sweet..just on time eh after my experiment then good news!! Managed to grab some this morning before it spiked!

[Golfer01]

Correct, they still got bit of time to take positions. Next week could be where all the action is.

Excuse my inexperience but what, up or downside does inclusion on the ASX300 have for A2?:confused:

[kura]

Funds that track index will have to acquire shares.

[Gunny]

I suggest greater credibility, exposure, being one of the big boys. Becomes a stock of heavy wait that should attract greater interest from investors that may only play in this board. The US forum presentation will also hopefully attract new investors.

Gunny

[sb9]

Funds that track index will have to acquire shares.

Correct, big players like kiwi saver providers/fund mangers are required hold the stocks that are included in these indices.

[Snow Leopard]

Index changes are at/after close of business on the 18th Mar (next Friday).

Some funds will actually do their re-balancing in the end of day auction on the 18-Mar. You can get some pretty big, but usually temporary, movements in price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Golfer01]

You can get some pretty big, but usually temporary, movements in price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger[/QUOTE]

That's par for the course on this baby....

[Snow Leopard]

That's par for the course on this baby....

But how often do you know when, in advance?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Trigger]

Index changes are at/after close of business on the 18th Mar (next Friday).

Some funds will actually do their re-balancing in the end of day auction on the 18-Mar. You can get some pretty big, but usually temporary, movements in price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

So PT, we have a two hour time zone differential to manage, plus the possibility that a lot of the action may occur late in the day in Australia. That really leaves us the weekend to consider our positions after the ASX close on Friday night, right?

Cheers

Trigger

[see weed]

Transferred from RAZ on the HBL thread page 482 no.7222 on 10/3/16. I hope they are killing a1 cows and not a2 cows. I get a funny feeling a lot of farmers out there don't know the difference. This would be a good time to separate the two if they have to kill a lot of cows. Fontera should tell their farmers to do that. What do you think?.....Let them know on the farming news?

[King1212]

Transferred from RAZ on the HBL thread page 482 no.7222 on 10/3/16. I hope they are killing a1 cows and not a2 cows. I get a funny feeling a lot of farmers out there don't know the difference. This would be a good time to separate the two if they have to kill a lot of cows. Fontera should tell their farmers to do that. What do you think?.....Let them know on the farming news?

:scared:Oh no.....! We need to do something! Does anyone know how to contact the farming news! What a waste of a2 cows. But if they slaughter a1 and a2 cows, that means will be less a2 cows producing a2 milk, means supply is low and demand is high...equal to $$$$$$!

[fungus pudding]

:scared:Oh no.....! We need to do something! Does anyone know how to contact the farming news! What a waste of a2 cows. But if they slaughter a1 and a2 cows, that means will be less a2 cows producing a2 milk, means supply is low and demand is high...equal to $$$$$$!

Slaughter them all - drink beer! :D

[King1212]

Slaughter them all - drink beer! :D

Beer does not give u health benefits. A2 milk does:D

[Sideshow Bob]

Beer does not give u health benefits. A2 milk does:D

but beer makes you funnier, more likeable, more handsome and more attractive to the opposite sex! :cool:

[Snoopy]

I only mentioned buffalo because buffalo milk is all A2, so there is no need to take the A2 licensed test. What I am saying is you can market milk which chemically is the same as A2,without calling it A2,and it will have the same benefits as A2 because it is exactly the same thing!


An interesting article here, from which I quote the most relevant paragraph

http://modernfarmer.com/2014/03/water-buffalo-wade-american-dairy-scene/

-------

Most people don’t realize that soft, creamy Italian-style mozzarella di bufala (or buffalo mozzarella) is named quite literally — it’s cheese made from water buffalo milk. They also don’t realize how delicious and healthy it is. Despite the higher butterfat content, water buffalo milk is healthier in many ways traditional cow’s milk. Water buffalo milk has 11 percent higher protein than cow’s milk, as well as 9 percent more calcium and 37 percent more iron. Water buffalo milk is also lower in cholesterol.

------

What the article doesn't mention is that all buffalo milk is A2.

Readers, including myself, may have imagined buffalo milk is 'super niche', even more so that A2 milk as promoted by ATM. You can imagine my own surprise then, when on a leisurely stroll through the Riccarton Market on a Saturday morning, here in Christchurch, there was a stall selling and promoting locally produced buffalo milk!

You A2 shareholders may think you have the intellectual property equivalent to a global money press. But the competition could be ramping up sooner than you think!

SNOOPY

[fungus pudding]

but beer makes you funnier, more likeable, more handsome and more attractive to the opposite sex! :cool:

And far more knowledgeable and intelligent, particularly after liberal consumption.

[nextbigthing]

but beer makes you funnier, more likeable, more handsome and more attractive to the opposite sex! :cool:

A2 Beer. I think we could be onto a winner here.

[King1212]

Went to grab a2 milk today, 3 countdown stores but only one stocks the milk. However, only 4 bottles left. My question is why? Is a2 not well known so so they don't stock too much or a2 is experiencing shortage of a2 milk? Any ideas people?

[fungus pudding]

Went to grab a2 milk today, 3 countdown stores but only one stocks the milk. However, only 4 bottles left. My question is why? Is a2 not well known so so they don't stock too much or a2 is experiencing shortage of a2 milk? Any ideas people?

It's obviously produced in relatively small quantities which, if demand increases, will mean more production will switch to a2. It's not like adding another flavour to a soft drink range. It takes time and until demand is established and looks to be constant, change over to production to a2 will be slow, and in the interim it will command a higher price.

[King1212]

It's obviously produced in relatively small quantities which, if demand increases, will mean more production will switch to a2. It's not like adding another flavour to a soft drink range. It takes time and until demand is established and looks to be constant, change over to production to a2 will be slow, and in the interim it will command a higher price.


Make senses Guru!:t_up:

[see weed]

Went to grab a2 milk today, 3 countdown stores but only one stocks the milk. However, only 4 bottles left. My question is why? Is a2 not well known so so they don't stock too much or a2 is experiencing shortage of a2 milk? Any ideas people?
Went into Countdown Mt. Wellington on 11/3/16 and they had about 7 bottles on shelf with expire date 17/3/16 ( 6 days to go). Told them this milk is a week old! I want the fresh milk, so they went out the back and got me 3 bottles of fresh milk with the 23/3/16 expire date. I find the a2 starts going off about 2 or 3 days before expire date. Not the first time it's happened. Took the lid off one a couple of weeks back with one day to go and made them smell it. They were very sorry and said they will keep an eye on it....pass me a tuis:)

[see weed]

Went to grab a2 milk today, 3 countdown stores but only one stocks the milk. However, only 4 bottles left. My question is why? Is a2 not well known so so they don't stock too much or a2 is experiencing shortage of a2 milk? Any ideas people?
a2 Milk Com. is not worried about a small market like NZ. Most off their money is made overseas. But when Fresha Valley's license runs out they will promote it more in NZ, but by that time it will probably be 90% owned by the Aussi's and could be over $5 per share. 62% has already gone.It's a shame about the big a2 secret in NZ, by the time everyone finds out it will be gone. And they will be thinking how come nobody told us about this wonderful product when it was a NZ company,and we could of bought some for 50c per share just like that strange man in a funny hat told us in Countdown last year:D. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[blobbles]

Went into Countdown Mt. Wellington on 11/3/16 and they had about 7 bottles on shelf with expire date 17/3/16 ( 6 days to go). Told them this milk is a week old! I want the fresh milk, so they went out the back and got me 3 bottles of fresh milk with the 23/3/16 expire date. I find the a2 starts going off about 2 or 3 days before expire date. Not the first time it's happened. Took the lid off one a couple of weeks back with one day to go and made them smell it. They were very sorry and said they will keep an eye on it....pass me a tuis:)

I find the opposite, I literally just had a glass of more than 2 days past expiry A2 milk, was fine!

[see weed]

I find the opposite, I literally just had a glass of more than 2 days past expiry A2 milk, was fine!
Fair enough. Maybe because it takes me 6 or 7 days to drink a bottle on my weet bix. And the count down from opening the bottle starts when first opened. And it might only have 6 days life after opening, whether it was opened on 11/3/16 or the 23/3/16, so that would mean if I opened it on the 23/3/16 then it would start to go off on 29/3/16 which would be about 20 days since bottled. Do you know what I mean?

[Golfer01]

I brought a 2 litre bottle yesterday for the family to try. We enjoyed the taste a believe it will be a regular on the shopping list.. What I was disappointed about was the label! It was bland, small, Uninformative and didn't highlight that it was A2 milk... Surely it needs to stand out against the other brands as being different to the "normal" A1 milk products.. From 3 yards away I would have taken it any other run of the mill bottle of milk.. A2/Fresha Valley need to sort it out. Really disappointing.....

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1603/S00496/growth-attracts-28-new-canterbury-milk-suppliers.htm

Sounds like a few of the new suppliers are A2.....

[Gunny]

Agree that A2 is hard to find and not well advertised in store. Have been buying at New World in Thorndon but had to go looking for it and worse the label was partly covered by the fridge front so no chance unless you are hunting for it. Worse still is wasn't there at all this morning and when I asked the attendant he knew nothing of A2 and said they had just "rearranged" the display. Not sure if this means it is gone altogether or not. In any event a very poor display and no marketing when it was there which is really disappointing. Will keep an eye out and may have to go up the line to management.

Interesting article SB. With the farmers up against the wall A2 could be an attractive strategy for those looking at their options. May be a silver for A2 supply by development of more A2 certified herds overtime. Not sure of the actual costs to convert though and it would not be an overnight thing.

Gunny

[Leftfield]

Gunny and Golfer,

Like you I'm miffed that ATM is not better marketed in NZ. However, as I understand it, the Fresha Valley distribution agreement was an early agreement prior to ATM's success in Aus, US and UK. If/when the NZ distribution deal comes to an end or is renegotiated, then we can expect much more in terms of ATM packaging and promotion. (Disc; long term holder. DYOR)

[dobby41]

Have a visiting dairy farmer from old blighty staying with us.
Asked him about A2
He said there was a lot of excitment a while back but now it is pretty much 'meh'

[winner69]

Chinese after our apples through Scales

I reckon A2 next up

[NT001]

Some of these issues have been pretty thoroughly explained on this forum several times in the past. So just briefly:

Yes Fresha Valley got a licence over ten years ago, and it will expire next year. ATM says it won't be renewed. ATM has plans to become active in NZ at that point. But we have no details.

Fresha Valley's licence agreement said nothing about who would do the publicity and advertising, so no one did it. In my view it's largely a2MC's fault that no one in NZ knows where to find A2 milk and public information about A2 milk is non-existent here. a2MC's head office is officially in Auckland, but actually the head office staff are all in Sydney.

Fresha Valley is a major milk supplier to the Countdown chain in the Auckland region and has a very close tie-up with Countdown. Fresha's boss has said he will make sure any Countdown branch that asks for A2 will get it - just tell the local store manager you want it stocked. But if you do that, make sure you buy some.

Re the use-by date: Fresha Valley a2 has quite a long use-by time and personally I usually chuck out any that's left after about a week, as I do with any other milk. But as with ANY milk, if you leave it out on the kitchen bench receiving daylight, it will go off very quickly. We've had no problems if you just keep it in the fridge (to exclude UV light more than for temperature reasons). It lasts well over a week.

New World in Thorndon is one of the few non-Countdown supermarkets that stocks A2 milk, but it's been charging a dollar more than the Countdown price per bottle. I also found A2 stocked in New World in Porirua a year or so ago. All the Countdown stores in the Wellington region are usually well stocked with Fresha's A2. Some, like our closest ones in Crofton Downs and Karori, where customers are probably better informed than in some other suburbs, have up to four rows on the shelves, well displayed since some of us put pressure on the store managers a couple of years ago.

But Fresha ships its A2 milk in sealed lightproof cartons rather than open crates. These are kept out in the coldstore room and are a bit of a hassle for staff to tear open to reload the shelves. Not like other brands which are in spare crates out under the shelves ready to reload the shelves. I heard they might change this system. There's rapid turnover of A2 on the shelves, so occasionally you have to ask the staff to re-load the shelf.

The story about cash-strapped farmers being unable to find buyers for their unwanted cows struck me as pretty interesting too, so I emailed it to the company just to be sure they were aware of it.

[Golfer01]

Some of these issues have been pretty thoroughly explained on this forum several times in the past. So just briefly:

Yes Fresha Valley got a licence over ten years ago, and it will expire next year. ATM says it won't be renewed. ATM has plans to become active in NZ at that point. But we have no details.

Fresha Valley's licence agreement said nothing about who would do the publicity and advertising, so no one did it. In my view it's largely a2MC's fault that no one in NZ knows where to find A2 milk and public information about A2 milk is non-existent here. a2MC's head office is officially in Auckland, but actually the head office staff are all in Sydney.

Fresha Valley is a major milk supplier to the Countdown chain in the Auckland region and has a very close tie-up with Countdown. Fresha's boss has said he will make sure any Countdown branch that asks for A2 will get it - just tell the local store manager you want it stocked. But if you do that, make sure you buy some.

Re the use-by date: Fresha Valley a2 has quite a long use-by time and personally I usually chuck out any that's left after about a week, as I do with any other milk. But as with ANY milk, if you leave it out on the kitchen bench receiving daylight, it will go off very quickly. We've had no problems if you just keep it in the fridge (to exclude UV light more than for temperature reasons). It lasts well over a week.

New World in Thorndon is one of the few non-Countdown supermarkets that stocks A2 milk, but it's been charging a dollar more than the Countdown price per bottle. I also found A2 stocked in New World in Porirua a year or so ago. All the Countdown stores in the Wellington region are usually well stocked with Fresha's A2. Some, like our closest ones in Crofton Downs and Karori, where customers are probably better informed than in some other suburbs, have up to four rows on the shelves, well displayed since some of us put pressure on the store managers a couple of years ago.

But Fresha ships its A2 milk in sealed lightproof cartons rather than open crates. These are kept out in the coldstore room and are a bit of a hassle for staff to tear open to reload the shelves. Not like other brands which are in spare crates out under the shelves ready to reload the shelves. I heard they might change this system. There's rapid turnover of A2 on the shelves, so occasionally you have to ask the staff to re-load the shelf.

The story about cash-strapped farmers being unable to find buyers for their unwanted cows struck me as pretty interesting too, so I emailed it to the company just to be sure they were aware of it.

Many thanks NT001. It gives me a much better understanding of the situation in NZ. In reality the fresh milk side in NZ for A2 is low priority. One would think that several thousand litres of fresh milk sold daily/weekly in NZ is insignificant (revenue wise) compared to hundreds of thousands of infant formula cans to Ozzie, Hong Kong and China. The marketing focus and product exposure for fresh milk is being concentrated in USA and the UK which is where the volume sales need to be. I'm off to the UK in several weeks time and then the US (CA) in a few months so I'm going to see how readily available the product is.

[Gunny]

Thanks for your post NT001. I followed up with New World Thorndon this morning. They get a delivery every Wednesday so should be in later today but as you say is more expensive there.

Having said that this branch is generally more expensive even than their other branches. For example a whole pineapple is about $5.50 there and a $1 cheaper at Porirua. Location location location it seems.

Gunny

[Golfer01]

Having said that this branch is generally more expensive even than their other branches. For example a whole pineapple is about $5.50 there and a $1 cheaper at Porirua. Location location location it seems.

Gunny[/QUOTE]

More like demographic, demographic, demographic. :)

[winner69]

Demographics gunny - Thorndon (and catchment area) full of rich dudes who don't mind paying more

That's right eh golfer (who made same comment)

[Golfer01]

Not me the lucky one, whoever did good on them.

On other note, falling NZD v AUD is good for their revenue as the financial statements are reported in NZD and their actual sales are in AUD, win-win situation, sweet!!!


FYI - their infant formula is sold in NZD to Australia. Effectively no gain or loss, which I believe is a good thing. Asian sales are in USD so exposure to +/- on this business.

[sb9]

Very strange to see such a low turnover day in months...

[Golfer01]

Very strange to see such a low turnover day in months...

You read my mind!!

[macduffy]

Very strange to see such a low turnover day in months...

Perhaps the excitement (hype?) around ATM is abating - until the next announcement.

[sb9]

Perhaps the excitement (hype?) around ATM is abating - until the next announcement.

Don't think so, my comments were more in light of its admission into ASX300 from Monday or COB today.

[airedale]

I am just back from 10 days in Tasmania. I noticed that many many coffee shops are using a2 milk. It just seemed like main stream and readily accepted product. That café owner in Lyttelton who doesn't do trim milk should get on to a2 milk. You can definitely taste the flavour in coffee.

[whatsup]

Very solid close $1.91 and looking at a very strong Monday., it will be very interesting to see how Aust closes tonight.

[Snow Leopard]

Index changes are at/after close of business on the 18th Mar (next Friday).

Some funds will actually do their re-balancing in the end of day auction on the 18-Mar. You can get some pretty big, but usually temporary, movements in price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

4.88% realised gross profit.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

4.88% realised gross profit.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Well it's was pretty action packed on ASX late afternoon, over 17ml shares traded.

[see weed]

Looks like a2 on the move again:t_up:. $2 here we come. It feels like a silent t/o. And $3 by years end.

[King1212]

Looks like a2 on the move again:t_up:. $2 here we come. It feels like a silent t/o. And $3 by years end.

Lovely:t_up:

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/279695

Is it a bit unusual that the Chief Executive of Australia & New Zealand for ATM sold 93% of his fully paid ordinary shares????

I think I hear the alarm bells in the distance...

[blobbles]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/279695

Is it a bit unusual that the Chief Executive of Australia & New Zealand for ATM sold 93% of his fully paid ordinary shares????

I think I hear the alarm bells in the distance...

Hmmmm... yes... management selling out is usually a negative sign... Not sure if I will continue to hold in light of this.

[Golfer01]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/279695

Is it a bit unusual that the Chief Executive of Australia & New Zealand for ATM sold 93% of his fully paid ordinary shares????

I think I hear the alarm bells in the distance...

Perhaps he has decided to buy an Island!! I would have thought that he would have to provide "a please explain" to some share market watchdog?
Sure a little disconcerting but they are still pumping out the product to Ozzie and Asia. Certainly demand is still there..

[King1212]

Perhaps he has decided to buy an Island!! I would have thought that he would have to provide "a please explain" to some share market watchdog?
Sure a little disconcerting but they are still pumping out the product to Ozzie and Asia. Certainly demand is still there..

The boss needs bit of money for holiday and spending money....nothing to worry..business is rapidly growing....

[Trigger]

The boss needs bit of money for holiday and spending money....nothing to worry..business is rapidly growing....

PEB was my last experience with Director/Exec selling. I ignored it to my detriment. :scared: Not saying its the same here at all, but its worth trying to find out a little more if possible. I have emailed my broker to see if they have made any enquiries. I will post the response if I get anything useful back - not holding my breath though.

Like blobbles says, it's worth pausing to have a think. Most of us would have been thinking that guidance is imminent. If its all going gangbusters, why sell now?

Discl: ATM is my largest holding.

[GR8DAY]

........maybe just a case of selling the fully paid to convert the partly paid??

[Trigger]

........maybe just a case of selling the fully paid to convert the partly paid??

My broker has dug a hole and is looking into it :D:D:D

[airedale]

........maybe just a case of selling the fully paid to convert the partly paid??

In which case then the partly paid would show up as fully paid.

[winner69]

Aren't these jokers shares the bulk of his salary?

Needs to pay the bills

[Sideshow Bob]

Mr Market doesn't see it as a problem - paying 5c more than yesterday.

[GR8DAY]

In which case then the partly paid would show up as fully paid.


..........BUT ONLY IF THEY DID IT AT THE SAME TIME! (mightve gone away to think about it) LOL

[blobbles]

2nd insider selling down, market not impressed...

[couta1]

2nd insider selling down, market not impressed... Not too bad a drop considering its a down day on the ASX anyway, pretty run of the mill movement for this stock I reckon.

[winner69]

2nd insider selling down, market not impressed...

Cant really blame him for selling at these prices

A couple of million bucks is a couple of million bucks eh

[janner]

Who was the first?

Who is on second..

[janner]

Sorry ... What's on second.. Who is on first !!..

[janner]

Followed by...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS2aEfbEi7s&ebc=ANyPxKrhPXjyFtrfVntKW3qteHKy4IT2OvabqEwvSEm_yi xJ6uiE4-ohl3aSkjDRZSK1rsPUzPwBw59fesKg-27Dqoi6duc8Dg

[see weed]

I don't know, but I think I was the third.

[janner]

See weed..

Do not be so delicate .. :-))

It is a brutal world out here

And you are old enough to know better :-)))

[janner]

Oops My mistake :-)))

[King1212]

Chillex.....people! An announcement just came on ASX...appendix 3 B, it looks like Geoff Babidge sold his shares earlier to fund the final payment of his other partly paid shares.

[airedale]

In which case then the partly paid would show up as fully paid.

Maybe it has come to pass.

[couta1]

Maybe it has come to pass. That's what appendix 3B tells us.

[Snow Leopard]

Assuming that it is Mr Babidge who has paid up the necessary $406,890 for all of those partly paid shares then he still has more than $1,500,000 from his sell down left.

Maybe he is going to buy himself a new deck.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Assuming that it is Mr Babidge who has paid up the necessary $406,890 for all of those partly paid shares then he still has more than $1,500,000 from his sell down left.

Maybe he is going to buy himself a new deck.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger As long as Mr Babidge keeps selling increasing quantities of his milk he can buy a berthing to go with his yacht for all I care, at this point he just looks like a cat that got himself a nice bowl of A2 cream.:cool: PS-If he had of sold his shares at the high of $2.61, he could have bought himself a lovely exotic sports car to go with his yacht and bowl of cream.

[King1212]

Rest assure people....a2 will do well in China...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11613544

[King1212]

Assuming that it is Mr Babidge who has paid up the necessary $406,890 for all of those partly paid shares then he still has more than $1,500,000 from his sell down left.

Maybe he is going to buy himself a new deck.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT...why u need a deck on a yacht? An escort service would highly recommended for him...so he can perform better with the company��

[RGR367]

Rest assure people....a2 will do well in China...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11613544

Implied for a2 but Danone is just exercising a rebranding for something losing the respect of the consumers Or maybe just to further prove their case against Fonterra :cool: This is not the impetus you would want to read about a2 going espledidly well on that market.

[Golfer01]

An excerpt from Synlait announcement yesterday.

Nutritional product sales for the period were 7,498 MT, a 155% increase on
HY15's 2,946 MT, and accounted for 16% of total sales volumes in HY16.

"The result we're expecting is an almost fourfold increase in canned infant
formula sales in FY16, compared to FY15.

In my opinion, this is a sure indication of what volumes A2 are exporting...

[Nasi Goreng]

I didn't comment in the SML thread yesterday but I'm quite happy with their result. From SML point of view, their business has plenty of growth ahead but I expect it to be steady year on year stuff in the range of 10-15% growth. Boring in comparison to the ATM story but I think if I was holding ATM at these levels, I would take some profits at around $2 and buy SML which I think has more room to move.

[Hectorplains]

I didn't comment in the SML thread yesterday but I'm quite happy with their result. From SML point of view, their business has plenty of growth ahead but I expect it to be steady year on year stuff in the range of 10-15% growth. Boring in comparison to the ATM story but I think if I was holding ATM at these levels, I would take some profits at around $2 and buy SML which I think has more room to move.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/378104/synlait-formula-boost-possible - SML might have greater growth potential than 10%. I can't see that've got the debt ceiling space so it's got to be odds on for a share issue now.

[skid]

Assuming that it is Mr Babidge who has paid up the necessary $406,890 for all of those partly paid shares then he still has more than $1,500,000 from his sell down left.

Maybe he is going to buy himself a new deck.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I keep waiting for a share to list that builds decks!:)

[RGR367]

Oops.......i thought my mouse jumps from ATM thread to Synlait milk and then suddenly to Bunnings :p But carry on as I now got my bearing. Must be a "cannot do something outside due to weather" day.

[King1212]

ATM is going big people! Big marketing and high demand in UK and USA. Check out thier Facebook page, heaps of good comments.

https://www.a2milk.co.uk/food-unwrapped/

[Ginger_steps_]

Chinese A1 vs A2 study - published 2/4/16: http://nutritionj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12937-016-0147-z

[Trigger]

Chinese A1 vs A2 study - published 2/4/16: http://nutritionj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12937-016-0147-z

I can't really comment on the quality of the science, and the trial numbers look a bit skinny (45), but what I like about this is that it's research that has come out of China itself - a population whose health, if you are a believer, stands to benefit from the consumption of pure A2.

Thanks for posting Ginger. And great to see you fighting the good fight on HC from time to time.

[NT001]

Chinese A1 vs A2 study - published 2/4/16: http://nutritionj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12937-016-0147-z

I guess we all expected this trial to show once again that essentially the standard supermarket mix of A1 and A2 milk causes digestive discomfort whereas pure A2 milk doesn't. That was shown by the Curtin University trial, and is even more evident using this larger cohort of Chinese subjects.

But there were also some other interesting and perhaps surprising findings that emerged, particularly that drinking milk containing A1 causes a loss of brain functioning - not a lot, but enough to have significant effects. This is what the trial report says:

"This minor impairment of cognitive function can have a considerable impact in situations where rapid stimulus detection and/or rapid decision-making are required. This finding demonstrates that consumption of milk containing the A1 β-casein type affects more than just the gastrointestinal system; there are also effects on neural function. "

I would hope this will be picked up by the news media. It could lead to an interesting new direction in research and understanding into the problems associated with A1 and the benefits of therefore switching to pure A2. Of course, it ties in with the already known fact that certain neural diseases including autism and schizophrenia are connected with A1 milk.

In the Chinese trial, they didn't just test pure A2 milk against pure A1 milk, because pure A1 isn't commercially available and is therefore irrelevant. The real issue is how badly consumers are affected by standard supermarket milk that is as low as 40% A1, with A2 making up the other 60%. So that's what they used, and even with that low proportion of A1, the bad effects were very clear.

[Bjauck]

...In the Chinese trial, they didn't just test pure A2 milk against pure A1 milk, because pure A1 isn't commercially available and is therefore irrelevant. The real issue is how badly consumers are affected by standard supermarket milk that is as low as 40% A1, with A2 making up the other 60%. So that's what they used, and even with that low proportion of A1, the bad effects were very clear. This is interesting. So even in cows without BSE, if you drink their normal A1/A2 milk, you could end up becoming a bit of a mad cow yourself? Although it may be a bit late for myself, A2 here I come!

[King1212]

Another research underway...

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-sets-out-changes-imposed-chinese-regulators-b-187172

[see weed]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/279695

Is it a bit unusual that the Chief Executive of Australia & New Zealand for ATM sold 93% of his fully paid ordinary shares????

I think I hear the alarm bells in the distance...
Directors can only buy or sell shares in their company at certain times? Correct me if I'm wrong. Is it 8 or 12 weeks before or after any big or small announcements?

[Ginger_steps_]

7966 For those who havent seen the mini a2 tins - far left of the a2 shelf. They are 400g. I think this is a great strategy for familes in our situation who prefer breast feeding, but might have a day here and there where formula is the only option (and dont want a 3qtr full tin that is out of date etc)

[Sideshow Bob]

A lot of the organic product gone GS.

[Ginger_steps_]

A lot of the organic product gone GS.
Yep - the picture was actually pulled from the Bellamy's thread on Hotcopper. Everyone understands "Organic", but only a small percentage actually understand A2 - even if they are aware of the brand. All in good time!

[Ginger_steps_]

A lot of the organic product gone GS. Another thought Bob, I have noticed that a2 and Bellamy's predominantly command the premium shelf space throughout the big supermarkets, but it varies at each store. I assume the one moving the largest volumes on a store-by-store basis gets the premium shelf space. So in the case of the above photo it would make sense that Bellamy's looks to have moved more. Of course the back story of supply issues could be a big factor too.

[babymonster]

not looking good this morning. both blackmores and ballemy are down quite a bie and ATM is down 6%

[sb9]

not looking good this morning. both blackmores and ballemy are down quite a bie and ATM is down 6%

They're all reacting to new border control measures announced by Chinese government recently. Its been widely published well before today though, typical market reaction.

[couta1]

They're all reacting to new border control measures announced by Chinese government recently. Its been widely published well before today though, typical market reaction. New regulations don't affect Infant formula which has been cleared so clearly a market over reaction, but hey what's new.

[Nasi Goreng]

Irrational moves down tend to occur when there have been irrational moves up. Its still sky high right now in my opinion and if you have been along for the whole ride, enjoy but its the new investors who will be running for the hills on bad news, rumors, breakdown of the chart etc. $1.70 is a critical support level, lots of stop losses will be in place under this level.

[couta1]

Irrational moves down tend to occur when there have been irrational moves up. Its still sky high right now in my opinion and if you have been along for the whole ride, enjoy but its the new investors who will be running for the hills on bad news, rumors, breakdown of the chart etc. $1.70 is a critical support level, lots of stop losses will be in place under this level. No need for new investors to run for the hills,the potential of the company and its products are massive and the share price can bounce back as quickly as it dropped once the panic settles down, seen it all before and then some:cool:

[Nasi Goreng]

I think I read that too on the XRO thread.

[couta1]

I think I read that too on the XRO thread. Yeah but babies need milk to survive not accounting software:cool:

[babymonster]

Market assumes there will be less gray market activity (eg, sending to China after buying from the self ect). Might damping demands.. So there are a few instos taking profit or reduce their holdings. Same as BAL, CZZ, and Blackmores.

[dobby41]

I think I read that too on the XRO thread.

touche .

[see weed]

:t_up:up up an away:D

[macduffy]

UBS have them as a Buy, according to FN Arena.

[Golfer01]

Market assumes there will be less gray market activity (eg, sending to China after buying from the self ect). Might damping demands.. So there are a few instos taking profit or reduce their holdings. Same as BAL, CZZ, and Blackmores.

I'm sorry, can't agree with this totally. A large (large) percentage of product is exported to Hong Kong, with a smaller volume being sent direct to China. The volume going to HKG is predominately sold in HKG. In the main it is purchased by Mainland Chinese who make daily trips across the boarder to purchase in bulk and take back across the boarder. This occurs over a vast array of goods...HKG has no import restrictions or labelling requirements for infant formula currently and likely, never will. The Grey Channel will only increase should there be any unusual restrictions applied by the Chinese Authorities for shipments sent direct to China.

Still, I wish there wasn't as much volatility in the share price......

[Trigger]

If I was a betting man I would have put money on an update from the company in mid April. My logic for the timing was simply that they would have the volatile first calendar quarter behind them (Jan holidays and CNY in amongst it all) and a clearer view of what any regulatory changes might mean for trading conditions for the final three months of the year.

Now halfway through the month, does anyway have a similar/different view?

[King1212]

Are u guys ready for news?

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2016/04/19/a2-milks-push-into-china-bolstered/

[King1212]

Checky management....waited till our delegates went to China and push the trade then release the result!:t_up: Good job management!

[babymonster]

Good news, although they still cannot really make the claim with only 40 people. With 600 people and double blind test, they can.

[blobbles]

Yep, anyone who has the slightest comprehension of a proper scientific study would laugh at a 45 person trial in order to make sweeping statements. Wait until the 600 person trial comes out before getting excited. Better if it was in the 1000's and run by a reputable, independent, Western science team.

Anyone know who is conducting these trials? If it is a Chinese "research institute", I would be highly skeptical. I knew a western food nutritionist in China who was working in a university there and the lying/cheating/back stabbing/lazyness and idiocy that came from his workmates drove him away. Very few were interested in actual science, most were just more interested in climbing the ladder (up the communist party which is deeply involved in Chinese universities). I would not trust anything they published as they will simply find whatever the company who is paying for the study wants them to find. As fonterror has deeper pockets, they could fund much bigger "trials".

[Lewylewylewy]

I think you miss the point. Corruption is normal in China, and a requirement of success. Getting the govt to say that ATM's milk is good for you is a path to enabling exports to China. It seems ATM is lining the correct pockets.

My ex girlfriend was Chinese. Her grandma was quite high up in the govt. Her mum knew lots of people in the dept that decided which companies get the allocation of export quotas from China. Basically Chinese companies would have to pay her to be allowed to do business outside of China. That's just how it is there.

[Hectorplains]

I think you miss the point. Corruption is normal in China, and a requirement of success. Getting the govt to say that ATM's milk is good for you is a path to enabling exports to China. It seems ATM is lining the correct pockets.

My ex girlfriend was Chinese. Her grandma was quite high up in the govt. Her mum knew lots of people in the dept that decided which companies get the allocation of export quotas from China. Basically Chinese companies would have to pay her to be allowed to do business outside of China. That's just how it is there.

Wow, this thread is heading into arable country. Your Chinese ex-girlfriend's Grandma, eh? ATM is "lining the correct pockets." Do I need popcorn?

[emveha]

Yep, anyone who has the slightest comprehension of a proper scientific study would laugh at a 45 person trial in order to make sweeping statements. Wait until the 600 person trial comes out before getting excited. Better if it was in the 1000's and run by a reputable, independent, Western science team.

Anyone know who is conducting these trials? If it is a Chinese "research institute", I would be highly skeptical. I knew a western food nutritionist in China who was working in a university there and the lying/cheating/back stabbing/lazyness and idiocy that came from his workmates drove him away. Very few were interested in actual science, most were just more interested in climbing the ladder (up the communist party which is deeply involved in Chinese universities). I would not trust anything they published as they will simply find whatever the company who is paying for the study wants them to find. As fonterror has deeper pockets, they could fund much bigger "trials".

What matters is what the Chinese think of it, isn't it? Hopefully they won't share your a priori.

[RGR367]

What matters is what the Chinese think of it, isn't it? Hopefully they won't share your a priori.

Yup. And worry not, the americans maybe the best marketers in the world but Kiwis can market good products to the vast land that is China. As my chinese friends had accepted, they love this Middle_earth and all that it represent but never never NEVER EVER tell them that those "contested islands" are never theirs to own. And yeah, corruption is always there on offer too.

[babymonster]

Yes, it's all about marketing but also if the Chinese govt allows you to do that. Google and Facebook are examples. Chinese govt want them to do business in China but only under its control. It's good that Chinese dairy market is very framented and atm does not threaten any state own assets and the party's image.

[Leftfield]

Another step....

20 April 2016
NZX/ASX Market Release
China Market Developments

The a2 Milk Company Limited has previously commented that the infant formula
regulatory environment in China continues to evolve and the Company considers
itself well placed to respond to announced changes in regulation in
conjunction with its manufacturing partner.
Recent changes have been announced by Chinese regulators concerning taxation
of Cross-Border E-Commerce (CBEC) Traded Commodities, and the publication of
product lists ("Positive Lists") for CBEC traded commodities through China
free trade zones.
The Company welcomes the increasing level of clarity around changes for this
channel recently announced, including that infant formula and whole milk
powder products are included on the "Positive Lists" and that infant formula
products sold in China have until 1 January 2018 to complete formulation
registration with CFDA (China Food and Drug Administration).

[NT001]

Yep, anyone who has the slightest comprehension of a proper scientific study would laugh at a 45 person trial in order to make sweeping statements. Wait until the 600 person trial comes out before getting excited. Better if it was in the 1000's and run by a reputable, independent, Western science team....

I would not trust anything they published as they will simply find whatever the company who is paying for the study wants them to find. As fonterror has deeper pockets, they could fund much bigger "trials".

I think you are overlooking three points: Firstly this is a preliminary trial, secondly it has been thoroughly peer reviewed and accepted for publication by a reputable international (not Chinese) specialist journal, and thirdly the company is not in the habit of making "sweeping statements". It is pretty careful about ensuring it doesn't go beyond what can be backed up scientifically, in fact it tends to be over-cautious if anything.

The journal's review panel which approved the study for publication were not Chinese, and had no connection with the trial research team which was mixed Chinese and foreign. And in fact one of the reviewers went further than just approving it, she congratulated the authors on an excellent study well done.

The study obviously had to be done in China by an institution with the necessary research laboratory facilities and ability to get Chinese ethical and regulatory authorisations because it was intended to show what happens when Chinese subjects drink A1 and A2 milk - a subject that has generated considerable discussion and is important for the development of the Chinese market.

Scientific research often involves relatively small cohorts of subjects (like the Curtin University A1/A2 digestive study), especially when they are to be followed up by larger and more refined studies later. And they commonly receive funding help from parties interested in the results, as otherwise they wouldn't get done at all. That's not a reason for ignoring or dismissing the results, and contrary to your assertion, if such trials are well run they are accepted and valued in the scientific community.

In fact, I have already seen the findings of the Curtin University trial, which was of a similar size to this Chinese one and had a2M company funding, used to support the argument in the published findings of at least one other international research team working in the same field.

Of course we all want to see larger trials, but big trials involving human subjects are vastly expensive. Yes, I guess Fonterra could run them, but it ain't gonna do so because it knows what the results will be. They will confirm the results of the a2M funded trials. Anyway, if Fonterra did run a huge expensive trial, would you not raise the same questions regarding credibility?

In some ways it's a lose-lose scenario - people who don't like the results of a trial but don't actually know enough about the subject to make valid and informed criticisms of it tend to fall back on the argument that it wasn't big enough to be scientifically credible and it was tainted by support from a party interested in the outcome. The media always love to run a negative angle willingly supplied on a plate by a critic, rather than tracking down someone who knows the subject and asks them for sensible informed comment. Those criticisms may get a media headline and carry some weight with some of the public, but actually they don't carry much weight in the scientific community if the trials are well run and peer-reviewed by respected independent experts.

[NT001]

And here's the news release we've been waiting for. Very interesting, and obviously the work of a pretty reputable bunch of researchers.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/for-many-lactose-intolerance-may-be-bloated-myth-according-to-new-clinical-study-300254313.html

[Gunny]

So previously diagnosed lactose intolerance people may now be hunting down A2 suppliers.

And the US has 1 in 4 with digestive problems, wow.

Not a bad market to launch into.

Gunny

[see weed]

Has any STers been buying a2 shares lately?

[Lewylewylewy]

I would happily buy some, if they paid dividends.

[macduffy]

Good coverage on BBC World News Business Live programme this evening. Interview with Scott Wotherspoon, A2 CEO for UK and China, explaining A2 "story" and business.

[RGR367]

Has any STers been buying a2 shares lately?

Yes, just about 2 weeks ago. After selling them at happy prices :t_up: late last year, I intend to reacquire those same number of shares as long as they're priced no more than $1.88. Gut feel says they'll be worth a lot more pretty soon.

[Ginger_steps_]

Has any STers been buying a2 shares lately? Goodbye Xero shares = hello a2!!

[BC_Doc]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/trade-deal-with-china/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501819&objectid=11629084

Relatively optimistic article however a few points to consider re. potential headwinds.

1. "UBS estimates 70 per cent of A2's formula sales in Australia and New Zealand actually end up in the Asian grey trade, predominantly China."
2. "Research shows reputation more important than country of origin.

Good to see the mention of the results from the 'clinical trial' last week although claiming lactose intolerance based on a 45 participant trial is hardly statistically significant. Promising nevertheless.

[GTM 3442]

All not well across the ditch. . .


http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/murray-goulburn-chief-gary-helou-resigns-profit-downgraded-20160426-gofs31.html


And fun and games on the other subcontinent:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/milk-prices-unlikely-to-increase-in-next-two-months/articleshow/51995989.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/rising-input-costs-falling-production-and-tougher-competition-trigger-consolidation-in-dairy-sector/articleshow/51987010.cms

[see weed]

All not well across the ditch. . .
Poor old a1 milk down in the dumps. They must be all changing to a2...the healthier choice:)

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/murray-goulburn-chief-gary-helou-resigns-profit-downgraded-20160426-gofs31.html


And fun and games on the other subcontinent:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/milk-prices-unlikely-to-increase-in-next-two-months/articleshow/51995989.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/rising-input-costs-falling-production-and-tougher-competition-trigger-consolidation-in-dairy-sector/articleshow/51987010.cms
Poor old a1 milk, down in the dumps. They must be all changing to a2 milk...the healthier choice:).

[NT001]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/trade-deal-with-china/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501819&objectid=11629084

Relatively optimistic article however a few points to consider re. potential headwinds.

1. "UBS estimates 70 per cent of A2's formula sales in Australia and New Zealand actually end up in the Asian grey trade, predominantly China."
2. "Research shows reputation more important than country of origin.

Good to see the mention of the results from the 'clinical trial' last week although claiming lactose intolerance based on a 45 participant trial is hardly statistically significant. Promising nevertheless.

The trial result IS significant unless someone comes along and shows flaws in it. Big trials are expensive. Anyone who wants to dispute this trial of 45 subjects is perfectly welcome to do a bigger one and publish contrary findings. They won't, so this trial stands. It is accepted in the science literature. Quibblers, hold your tongues.

The research showing reputation is more important than country of origin is GREAT. Most people are probably confused about whether Platinum A2 formula comes from clean green NZ or brown drought-stricken Australia. It has already established a reputation, and it's backing that up with scientific research carried out on Chinese consumers. Who else has done that? No one. How the A2 formula gets to Chinese consumers is almost irrelevant, except that it shows people are breaking their necks to get hold of the stuff. Same with A2 whole milk powder for adults. There are more adults than infants in China.

And believe me (I read the scientific stuff) there's a lot more to come yet. Not just indigestion. Big diseases. Diabetes, heart disease, MS? Yes. Cancer? Yes. A1 is a potential killer, but a2MC is prohibited by law from saying it. Eventually it will come out, and global dairy will have to accept it.

[Snow Leopard]

On my almost annual trip to Little Blighty on the Down (UK) and my informal survey suggests that A2 Milk has not made much headway since last year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[see weed]

I would have to be mad, stupid, or a screw loose. Just can't help myself stop buying more every time price drops.

[sb9]

I would have to be mad, stupid, or a screw loose. Just can't help myself stop buying more every time price drops.

Good on ya see weed, am watching this too as its approaching my target price range for a top up.

[babymonster]

1.70 is the support line. If it breaks, it's a free fall

[see weed]

1.70 is the support line. If it breaks, it's a free fall
Yeah, free for all. Ready and waiting. Every time it goes down 3c, me top up.

[sb9]

Still watching for an opportunity to top up, what's interesting is such low volume of sells at these levels. Meaning not many are willing to offload at current levels as they expect bigger things ahead....

[Trigger]

Would still much rather it bounced off a higher base than lower base though.

I was hoping for an update in mid/late April to help sustain the SP. That didn't happen obviously. I can only interpret this as meaning, at the present moment, there is no material change to the guidance issued earlier in the year. That's not to say that revenue and earnings might not already be known to be better than indicated earlier on, its just that it isn't material. At this stage. Tick tock.

[airedale]

Yeah, free for all. Ready and waiting. Every time it goes down 3c, me top up.
Hi See weed, to quote Jesse Livermore " the market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent".
Or as KW used to advise "don't drink and drive and don't buy shares in a downtrend".;)

[airedale]

Good luck Mate, I hope that you come out on the right side.

[babymonster]

Good on you see weed

[see weed]

I see a bit of movement today. Announcement soon?

[sb9]

I see a bit of movement today. Announcement soon?

Could well be...

[see weed]

Looks like a race is on..........ATM v AIR

[blobbles]

I see a bit of movement today. Announcement soon?

I hope not, nothing worse than a leaky company re announcements...

[see weed]

Good luck Mate, I hope that you come out on the right side.
Thanks airedale, have been on the right side since the 50c days, but have accumulated an extra 100,000+ in the last few weeks. Don't know why, just can't help it.:confused:

[sb9]

Thanks airedale, have been on the right side since the 50c days, but have accumulated an extra 100,000+ in the last few weeks. Don't know why, just can't help it.:confused:
Stronger finish on ASX 173.5 (good volume too) which equates to NZ$ 1.89, expect higher open tomorrow morning.

[longy]

4.2% down? What happened? any idea?

[black knat]

4.2% down? What happened? any idea?
The stock is overvalued by a large margin. People realise this and are selling.

[see weed]

The stock is overvalued by a large margin. People realise this and are selling.
By how much overvalued? What is your valuation?

[mondograss]

It seems unlikely everyone decided that all on the same day. The market as a whole was weak on poor earnings data from the USA. Pretty much everything went backwards and ATM really just gave up recent gains. Having said that, it's been tracking sideways since Jan 1, so unless they put out some really good news I wouldn't expect it to go anywhere for a while. The good news is that all this bouncing around the 170-190 range should put a bit of a floor under it.

[black knat]

By how much overvalued?

Not that much ... around 20%.

[sb9]

For the A2M followers, take a moment to read through the presentation released today by Bellamy's on page 21 where they refer to Brand A in the slide which has shown significant market share gain in last years in the IF market.

[Leftfield]

For the A2M followers, take a moment to read through the presentation released today by Bellamy's on page 21 where they refer to Brand A in the slide which has shown significant market share gain in last years in the IF market.

Well spotted and thanks sb9.
It seems good news for both ATM and SML is likely. Overall I was v impressed by Bellamy's presentation. Lots of good info in there.

[Arbroath]

Well spotted and thanks sb9.
It seems good news for both ATM and SML is likely. Overall I was v impressed by Bellamy's presentation. Lots of good info in there.

Theremight be plenty of good fundamental development going on or not but the break of the $1.70-1.90 trading range has seen a pretty sharp move lower today.....could be headed back to 1.30 or so....I'll be a buyer down there if we see it

[Golfer01]

Theremight be plenty of good fundamental development going on or not but the break of the $1.70-1.90 trading range has seen a pretty sharp move lower today.....could be headed back to 1.30 or so....I'll be a buyer down there if we see it

currently walking with buckled knees and watery eyes. What's going on today?????

[Nasi Goreng]

currently walking with buckled knees and watery eyes. What's going on today?????

It is all down to technical analysis. A2 has held above $1.70 for quite some time after the massive run it got at the end of last year.

It has broken through $1.70 and the technical picture is not good right now, it could go into free fall from here.

[sb9]

Just topped up, couldn't resist the opportunity. Are you doing same see weed?

[Nasi Goreng]

Give it a chance to fall first. Aussies are bailing out, no support till $1AUD.

[couta1]

Give it a chance to fall first. Aussies are bailing out, no support till $1AUD. A lot of bailing out today across both exchanges, not specific to A2. I'm holding 170k shares at $1.90 so that would be an ouch, but the way I see it is this is quite likely to be worth $3 in a year's time if growth continues and who knows how much in 5 years time.So in the grand scheme nothing to worry about aye, just highlights once again how timing the market is futile but advantageous if you happen to have a cash pile ready on the lows.

[Baa_Baa]

Give it a chance to fall first. Aussies are bailing out, no support till $1AUD.

Spot on. Shorts on ASX having a field day. Big chart gap NZ$1.32-$1.11, that'll be their target, imho.

[sb9]

Spot on. Shorts on ASX having a field day. Big chart gap NZ$1.32-$1.11, that'll be their target, imho.

Would love that price point to top up more....

[couta1]

Would love that price point to top up more.... Yeah that's getting into mortgage top up territory.:cool:

[nextbigthing]

Yeah that's getting into mortgage top up territory.:cool:

Couta please no.

[couta1]

Couta please no. Getting wifes okay would be the difficult part as the bank ring her before putting it through (Joint names) Worked in the past but I doubt she would be impressed with the current size of the red arrow on my portfolio with the Air/A2/NZR trifecta.

[Nasi Goreng]

I don't know how much you follow charts but that $1.70 has stuck out like a sore thumb for some time. So its no surprise to see it get hammered on the day it broke. I think it's been a traders stock for some time so with that in mind, it's time for caution.

[fiasco]

Fair to say lesson learned today, licking a few wounds. Stop loss was triggered this afternoon so took a hit. Will see how the next few days pan out.