ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

Fair to say lesson learned today, licking a few wounds. Stop loss was triggered this afternoon so took a hit. Will see how the next few days pan out. I learned the opposite lesson early in the year when I sold for a loss only to see the price bounce back well above my buy price in the space of a few weeks, won't be repeating that again.

[Joshuatree]

Market assumes there will be less gray market activity (eg, sending to China after buying from the self ect). Might damping demands.. So there are a few instos taking profit or reduce their holdings. Same as BAL, CZZ, and Blackmores.

More details below

china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb (http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb)

[see weed]

Just topped up, couldn't resist the opportunity. Are you doing same see weed?
In damage control at the moment. Down about $20,000+ but still in the green. Will buy back in when dust settles. a2 is just doing what a2 is good at. Going down down down then up again on good announcement. The 50c ones are still up 44k, so not too worried:)

[blobbles]

More details below

china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb (http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb)

Not quite sure you guys understand how big this is. Could almost destroy the daigou milk traders, which is massive. Be prepared to see supermarket shelves in Australia/NZ full of A2 milk powder again. If you see that, bailing out might not be a bad move as you would be reliant on A2 being able to replicate their success IN China. Not clear that this will happen.

[couta1]

A2 has massive worldwide potential, these temporal stumbling blocks don't change that.

[King1212]

I learned the opposite lesson early in the year when I sold for a loss only to see the price bounce back well above my buy price in the space of a few weeks, won't be repeating that again.

hold on tight Couta1. I was exactly the same, sold my OHE at loss, now they are at 4.70. Gutted!

[dobby41]

A2 has massive worldwide potential, these temporal stumbling blocks don't change that.

I suppose the big question is how much you are willing to pay now for the future potential

[Leftfield]

Having sold half my ATM north of $2 and with a 'free' balance, for once I'm nicely positioned to buy back in. (Tho' I'm still learning and sold my TIL way too early!)

ATM is still an exciting company with huge long term potential so I'll be watching carefully.

[sb9]

Not quite sure you guys understand how big this is. Could almost destroy the daigou milk traders, which is massive. Be prepared to see supermarket shelves in Australia/NZ full of A2 milk powder again. If you see that, bailing out might not be a bad move as you would be reliant on A2 being able to replicate their success IN China. Not clear that this will happen.

I think the point here is China with its massive lactose intolerant population needs milk products from companies like A2, Bellamys and Blackmores than the way around.

Its just that as someone mentioned here before A2 has become massive traders (shorters) stock in past few months.

Agree with couta1 there, A2 has not put all eggs in one basket they've huge potential in UK and US. If you're a believer in their longer term story nothing much has fundamentally from day before yesterday.

[babymonster]

i don't have any problem with sending A2 or Karicare back to china...

[sb9]

In damage control at the moment. Down about $20,000+ but still in the green. Will buy back in when dust settles. a2 is just doing what a2 is good at. Going down down down then up again on good announcement. The 50c ones are still up 44k, so not too worried:)

No problem here too, original ones at 58c are well intact and overall with recent top up all green :)

[Livia]

More details below

china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb (http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb)


Not sure about Aussie, but in NZ the cross-boarder e-commerce is not hugely impacted by the new tax implementation from China as far as i know. I still think A2 has its uniqueness which brings great potential.

[silu]

And there I was being pissed off about selling my profits for a free ride at $1.60 in January. Ouch.

[crabs]

More details below

china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb (http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-customs-crackdown-may-hit-bellamys-organic-blackmores-20160516-gowpjb)
It has been signaled by Chinese authorities for months now that they are going to regulate the industry more widely.
It is well known that sales of A2 milk formula have benefited hugely by back door sales.
That door looks to be closing for now.
Still a great product.

[kura]

Was looking to get back in at lower prices, Is anyone able to state the next technical support level ? As would hate to get back in too early.

[Baa_Baa]

Was looking to get back in at lower prices, Is anyone able to state the next technical support level ? As would hate to get back in too early.

1.32-1.11 chart gap. 1.27 in between (Nov24'15 high).

Not advice, just observation, dyor

[xafalcon]

I think the point here is China with its massive lactose intolerant population needs milk products from companies like A2, Bellamys and Blackmores than the way around.

DYOR!!!

Lactose intolerance has nothing whatsoever to do with A2 or Bellamy formula products

A2 product differentiation is a protein difference

Bellamy product differentiation is organic farming practice

Both formula ranges contain lactose......

A2 is at high risk if Aussie grey-trade is closed, their annual report clearly spelled this out. Bellamy also exposed, but less so than A2

If you're wondering, I've been in the formula industry since 1991

[Longhaul]

Broken through the 200 day EMA. Personally I wouldn't consider buying until the bottom had been established.

Is it just me or do markets seem very turbulent at the moment?

[bull....]

DYOR!!!

Lactose intolerance has nothing whatsoever to do with A2 or Bellamy formula products

A2 product differentiation is a protein difference

Bellamy product differentiation is organic farming practice

Both formula ranges contain lactose......

A2 is at high risk if Aussie grey-trade is closed, their annual report clearly spelled this out. Bellamy also exposed, but less so than A2

If you're wondering, I've been in the formula industry since 1991

xfalcon is correct

a2 will be pounded

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sharemarket/news/article.cfm?c_id=316&objectid=11581288

[crabs]

DYOR!!!

Lactose intolerance has nothing whatsoever to do with A2 or Bellamy formula products

A2 product differentiation is a protein difference

Bellamy product differentiation is organic farming practice

Both formula ranges contain lactose......

A2 is at high risk if Aussie grey-trade is closed, their annual report clearly spelled this out. Bellamy also exposed, but less so than A2

If you're wondering, I've been in the formula industry since 1991
good post you are exactly right.
We do live in hope that the Aussie market is a testament that many who were diagnosed with lactose intolerance where actually intolerant to the AI protein instead now it has been more widely recognized.

[blobbles]

I think the point here is China with its massive lactose intolerant population needs milk products from companies like A2, Bellamys and Blackmores than the way around.

Its just that as someone mentioned here before A2 has become massive traders (shorters) stock in past few months.

Agree with couta1 there, A2 has not put all eggs in one basket they've huge potential in UK and US. If you're a believer in their longer term story nothing much has fundamentally from day before yesterday.

I think you are confused. Neither A2 milk nor organic milk deal with the problem of lactose intolerance. People who are lactose intolerant cannot drink A2 or organic milk. Sometimes however people believe they are lactose intolerant but are A1 protein sensitive. This is where A2 milk comes in.

If you believe A2 can be drunk by lactose intolerant people you are very mistaken.

[couta1]

xfalcon is correct

a2 will be pounded

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sharemarket/news/article.cfm?c_id=316&objectid=11581288 Aside from the fact that the price is already getting pounded, as long as they are growing total sales volume by increasing sales in other markets then I can't see why. Besides China aren't going to cut their nose off to spite their face, it will sort itself out and will be business as normal given a few months

[blobbles]

Has anyone looked up whether such an import tax as they are proposing would breach the free trade agreements NZ and Aus with China? I would have thought import taxes would be pretty much impossible considering these agreements...

[stoploss]

Has anyone looked up whether such an import tax as they are proposing would breach the free trade agreements NZ and Aus with China? I would have thought import taxes would be pretty much impossible considering these agreements...

They just change the rules to suit , bit like when they were in long term agreements on iron ore etc ...price went up they were happy as soon as the prices came off .... we don't like this we are not paying .....

[blobbles]

They just change the rules to suit , bit like when they were in long term agreements on iron ore etc ...price went up they were happy as soon as the prices came off .... we don't like this we are not paying .....

I hope that is not the case regarding our milk exports to China, would be a big case to take to the WTO if China could breach the FTA willy nilly.

This could be that they are imposing the tax only from Hong Kong to try to limit the cross border trade there.

[stoploss]

I hope that is not the case regarding our milk exports to China, would be a big case to take to the WTO if China could breach the FTA willy nilly.

This could be that they are imposing the tax only from Hong Kong to try to limit the cross border trade there.

They won't need our exports we have been selling them all our IP ,just as the Kiwi fruit people did with Italy .
They are gearing up to do it all themselves see this story . ( A2 is different I know ) But whats to stop them building those herds ...

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-07/09/content_21229700.htm

[Ginger_steps_]

Not sure what to do.... Load up as much as possible / Hold of for a little while longer - I dont think we will see prices sub $1.5 again once it begins heading north again. Theres so much news from a2 seemingly just round the corner that will more likely than not have a positive impact to the SP. Also china seems to have cooled off on the import regulation front after adverse affects to the economy since imposing the new tax - if this is the worst we get - a2 have a lot to work with!!!

[longy]

I am wondering if this story has got anything to do with the fallen of SP.

"The former chairman of US company Dean Foods, a takeover bidder for NZX-listed A2 Milk [NZX: ATM] last year, has pleaded guilty to insider trading charges brought by US authorities.

The Securities Commission issued a statement overnight alleging Las Vegas-based professional gambler William “Billy” Walters had made $US40 million ($60 million) by trading on stock tips from a corporate insider who owed him money."

[xafalcon]

Aside from the fact that the price is already getting pounded, as long as they are growing total sales volume by increasing sales in other markets then I can't see why. Besides China aren't going to cut their nose off to spite their face, it will sort itself out and will be business as normal given a few months

The Chinese formula market is not a western market, so western "normality" simply doesn't apply.

China will happily cut off their nose to spite their face, if there is a net gain in it for China.

China has stated a goal of reducing imported infant formula brand numbers from north of 300 to well below 50. And they are already moving along that path

It does this by constant regulatory creep and import uncertainty.

Grey-trade out of NZ was hit by this 2 years back, when MPI kow-tow'ed to Chinese authorities and effectively stopped the practice

It is only a matter of time before Aussie grey-trade is snuffed out as well, either by AQIS, or by the enforcement of regulations that require grey-trade imported formula to meet relevant Chinese national standards

And with about 75% of "Aussie A2 formula sales" in fact being grey-trade, I see a huge problem for both A2 and Synlait when the gate closes

Kind of like playing Russian roulette - everything is fine until the loaded chamber comes around

like everyone else, I have no idea when this will happen

[Nasi Goreng]

I don't quite understand why a grey trade exists at all. If there is demand in China, why do A2 not export direct?

[stoploss]

I don't quite understand why a grey trade exists at all. If there is demand in China, why do A2 not export direct?
The perversity is the average Chinese punter doesn't trust the product sold locally . ( history of melamine ) so happy to pay more than double for one with a receipt from woolies in Aussie , with the label all in English .

[see weed]

Wow what a ride.Tried to get some at 1.41, but by time I put order in it was back to 1.48-1.50 now it's on 1.61. This is better than Rainbows end.Ended up getting some at 1.48 to 1.50.:mellow:

[Ginger_steps_]

Wow what a ride.Tried to get some at 1.41, but by time I put order in it was back to 1.48-1.50 now it's on 1.62. This is better than Rainbows end.Ended up getting some at 1.48 to 1.50.:mellow: Yep - i first logged in to see $1.41 - thought SHIZA, digested it and managed to pick up a parcel at $1.51 - only committed 30% of available cash - should have used it all!

[couta1]

Wow what a ride.Tried to get some at 1.41, but by time I put order in it was back to 1.48-1.50 now it's on 1.62. This is better than Rainbows end.Ended up getting some at 1.48 to 1.50.:mellow: Yep while the Air coaster has sort of lost momentum the A2 coaster has plenty of thrills left for those jumping on board.:cool:

[Ginger_steps_]

The Chinese formula market is not a western market, so western "normality" simply doesn't apply.

China will happily cut off their nose to spite their face, if there is a net gain in it for China.

China has stated a goal of reducing imported infant formula brand numbers from north of 300 to well below 50. And they are already moving along that path

It does this by constant regulatory creep and import uncertainty.

Grey-trade out of NZ was hit by this 2 years back, when MPI kow-tow'ed to Chinese authorities and effectively stopped the practice

It is only a matter of time before Aussie grey-trade is snuffed out as well, either by AQIS, or by the enforcement of regulations that require grey-trade imported formula to meet relevant Chinese national standards

And with about 75% of "Aussie A2 formula sales" in fact being grey-trade, I see a huge problem for both A2 and Synlait when the gate closes

Kind of like playing Russian roulette - everything is fine until the loaded chamber comes around

like everyone else, I have no idea when this will happen

Of course if these guys sign a deal with a2 in some shape or form, it may negate the risk from the grey channel all together.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/chinese-pharmacists-plan-to-share-1600-billion-pie-with-australia-20160502-gok0qy.html

[nextbigthing]

Of course if these guys sign a deal with a2 in some shape or form, it may negate the risk from the grey channel all together.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/chinese-pharmacists-plan-to-share-1600-billion-pie-with-australia-20160502-gok0qy.html

They're sneaky. Legislate against the product, destroy the shareprice then launch a takeover offer at a 'very generous' $1.5 after smashing it down sub $1*


*Pure fearmongering

[xafalcon]

Of course if these guys sign a deal with a2 in some shape or form, it may negate the risk from the grey channel all together.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/chinese-pharmacists-plan-to-share-1600-billion-pie-with-australia-20160502-gok0qy.html

Nope

As A2 doesn't have their own manufacturing plant, the 3-brand rule as it's currently written will potentially eliminate legitimate access into China

[mondograss]

Unless Synlait agree to A2 being one of the three brands it produces? It reads to me that it's more aimed at preventing manufacturers creating multiple brands to flood the market. A2 only appears to have the one brand so I would have thought it would be OK, certainly their comments publicly thus far have indicated that they're across this change and are well prepared.

[Golfer01]

I don't quite understand why a grey trade exists at all. If there is demand in China, why do A2 not export direct?

They do. Their appointed agent is CHINA STATE FARM HOLDING SHANGHAI CO.
IMHO - if the grey channel freezes then the volume currently going to Ozzie and HKG (ultimately to china) will go direct. Also I can't see the product being any more expensive to the consumer if sent direct. Certainly the cost to getting it to market is no more than the cost to Ozzie or HKG.

[xafalcon]

The number of brands relates to the product manufacturer, not the brand owner.

So Synlait can only send 3 brands into China under current wording

Synlait can choose to have A2 Platinum as one of their 3 brands, but that only leaves Synlait 2 other brands they can send into China

Synlait's own mainstream brand in China is Pure Canterbury, leaving them 1 other brand

Akarola is a direct marketed Synlait brand in China, leaving no other brands available for them

These are just the brands I know about, there may be others

Now think about Synlait ownership. Bright Dairy, a large Chinese dairy company is a major shareholder. Shanghai Pengxin is the owner of Synlait Farms. What if either of these companies want a formula brand for China made at THEIR Synlait plant in NZ?

And then consider that Synlait has just spent over $100M on expansion to become a major third party formula manufacturer. What happens if they win the business of a major multi-national who wants to send product into China?

Finally consider what other NZ formula manufacturers are in the A2 milk catchment region AND have spare IF capacity AND have China manufacturing approval AND have unused brand entry

Sounds like a big risk to me

[Ginger_steps_]

Nope

As A2 doesn't have their own manufacturing plant, the 3-brand rule as it's currently written will potentially eliminate legitimate access into China You really think Synlait would drop a2?? Highly doubt it!!!! The three brand rule will only help a2 by eliminating 80% of brands on the shelf = much higher visibility for a2, and less competition for that matter.

[couta1]

You really think Synlait would drop a2?? Highly doubt it!!!! The three brand rule will only help a2 by eliminating 80% of brands on the shelf = much higher visibility for a2, and less competition for that matter. Definately not, it's an ever increasing earner for them and the reason they have had to expand facilities to cope with the growth of the product.

[mondograss]

I personally think the Synlait ownership make up isn't highly relevant, after all, why would the chinese owners want to create their own brand to export into China when they already own a company that has two brands exporting into China and manufactures a third (which has a highly competitive point of difference)? It doesn't make sense to me that they'd bump A2 off just to bring in a third brand. Unless they did it to crash the share price and buy them up so they own the third brand, then it makes total sense.

[Golfer01]

You really think Synlait would drop a2?? Highly doubt it!!!! The three brand rule will only help a2 by eliminating 80% of brands on the shelf = much higher visibility for a2, and less competition for that matter.

I agree. A2 is Synlaits biggest customer...

[NT001]

.. Lactose intolerance has nothing whatsoever to do with A2 or Bellamy formula products A2 product differentiation is a protein difference.

I'm sorry Falcon but you are wrong on this point. The a2 company used to say that it does not claim a2 milk gets around the problem of lactose intolerance, but now this has changed.

Since publication of the Chinese human clinical trial recently, it has been saying that A1 is certainly a cause of so-called lactose intolerance, and a2 does get around this. And I haven't seen anyone disputing that this is a fair conclusion from the Chinese trial. I think it may have actually surprised a2MC a bit, but that's the big news to emerge from the trial, and I'm surprised you are unaware of this.

Of course this does not apply to Belklamy's organic, which contains both the A2 and the A1 proteins.

The key result reported from the trial was that "Consumption of milk containing only A2 β-casein did not aggravate PD3 symptoms relative to baseline (i.e., after washout of dairy products) in lactose tolerant and intolerant subjects".

What that means in plain English is that after a two-week period of abstinence from all dairy consumption allowing the symptoms of lactose intolerance to completely recede, the consumption of A2 milk did not result in symptoms of digestive inflammation normally associated with lactose intolerance, even in those subjects identified as "lactose intolerant".

This finding has resulted in a2MC openly proclaiming that in the Chinese trial "All of the participants were able to drink a2 Milk™ even though it contains lactose", and that "symptoms of lactose intolerance ...completely disappear when participants drank a2 Milk™" There4fore it asserts that "The extent of lactose intolerance could be a myth and the symptoms are likely to be a result of an inflammatory response in the gut caused by the A1 protein".

So the company is not saying ALL cases of lactose intolerance are in fact caused by A1, but a lot certainly are. And in China, where lactose intolerance is a general problem, this is huge.

[Hectorplains]

T

Now think about Synlait ownership. Bright Dairy, a large Chinese dairy company is a major shareholder. Shanghai Pengxin is the owner of Synlait Farms. What if either of these companies want a formula brand for China made at THEIR Synlait plant in NZ?

There is no Synlait Farms, it is now Purata Farming. The don't market a baby formula - nor has there ever been mention made of them pursuing this? They certainly have no claim to the Synlait milk plant.

[King1212]

It looks like going to be bullish tmrw opening. HC forum is hot about ATM. Below is the news from HC.
The key information tax exemption to my surprise http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/news-posted-1-hr-ago.2775545/styles/default/xenforo/clear.png,

消息显示，今日上午各地关检部门已相继通知企业，正式消息或于下周一或周二时正式对外公布。
Authorities has informed all traders this morning, and official announcement will be made Monday or Tuesday.

跨境电商零售进口商品的单次交易限值为人民币2000元，个人年度交易限值为人民币20000元。在限值以 内进口的跨境电商零售进口商品，关税税率暂设为0%；进口环节增值税、消费税取消免征税额，暂按法定应纳税 额的70%征收。超过单次限值、累加后超过个人年度限值的单次交易，以及完税价格超过2000元限值的单个 不可分割商品，均按照一般贸易方式全额征税。
single transaction under 2000 RMB and individual annual transaction under 20000RMB are DUTY FREE and import value added tax and consumer tax will be charged at 70% of its legally chargeable amount. For over 2000RMB/unit commodity, the tax will be charged at its full price. (PS: A2 single unit price should be around 180RMB far under 2000 limit)

Well, on top of the news of the delay, we now know the tax will also be discounted as well.
Congratulations to those who bought on Friday.


The news recently just out from Chinese newspaper, they said it is official.

anyway, went to countdown today to pick up my A2 milk. No stock at all, ask the customer service and she said they don't have in stock. She said heaps of oldies regularly buying the milk. Every weekend, I went to grab and it is only 2 to 3 bottles left....

[xafalcon]

I was going to quote one of you, but I couldn't decide who was the most appropriate

You guys/gals really don't understand Infant Formula at all. And if you don't understand the basic product, or the international market it is part of, how the heck can you make any sound decisions?

A2 is a tiny niche player. Compare to Mead Johnson, Danone, Nestle, Abbott. These are the main stream companies that Synlait is targeting.

The 3 brand rule is a game changer. It is being challenged at the very highest level in world trade. Because if it becomes law, it will severely limit access to the world's most lucrative (but very difficult) formula market in the world

The major companies will be forced into buying brand access through third party manufacturers to retain their market presence. But they have deep pockets, and the economics will stack up

A2 v's Multi-billion dollar companies.

Has the penny dropped yet?

If you think that Shanghai Pengxin bought dairy farms surrounding an IF company as a simple farming investment, I'd suggest a reality check is needed. How much are dairy farms making at current payout? It's not about farming as an investment. The acquisition is about a long term play into value added products. Shanghai Pengxin already do this with UHT at Miraka

As for the lactose comment above, I'm not wasting my time responding beyond saying - read the nutrition information panel. Case closed

[NT001]

...As for the lactose comment above, I'm not wasting my time responding beyond saying - read the nutrition information panel. Case closed

That kind of reply sounds like a copout to me. Read WHAT nutrition information panel, and what particular part?

[smtrader]

I was going to quote one of you, but I couldn't decide who was the most appropriate

You guys/gals really don't understand Infant Formula at all. And if you don't understand the basic product, or the international market it is part of, how the heck can you make any sound decisions?

A2 is a tiny niche player. Compare to Mead Johnson, Danone, Nestle, Abbott. These are the main stream companies that Synlait is targeting.

The 3 brand rule is a game changer. It is being challenged at the very highest level in world trade. Because if it becomes law, it will severely limit access to the world's most lucrative (but very difficult) formula market in the world

The major companies will be forced into buying brand access through third party manufacturers to retain their market presence. But they have deep pockets, and the economics will stack up

A2 v's Multi-billion dollar companies.

Has the penny dropped yet?

If you think that Shanghai Pengxin bought dairy farms surrounding an IF company as a simple farming investment, I'd suggest a reality check is needed. How much are dairy farms making at current payout? It's not about farming as an investment. The acquisition is about a long term play into value added products. Shanghai Pengxin already do this with UHT at Miraka

As for the lactose comment above, I'm not wasting my time responding beyond saying - read the nutrition information panel. Case closed

Sorry xafalcon im too late to the party to know what to make from your comment but until i take sometime out and read about ATM/industry/this thread - is what your saying good or bad for ATM.. :confused:

[couta1]

Sorry xafalcon im too late to the party to know what to make from your comment but until i take sometime out and read about ATM/industry/this thread - is what your saying good or bad for ATM.. :confused: If you believe what xafalcon has to say then the answer to your question is obvious otherwise time to start your own research.

[Sideshow Bob]

Fleeting reference about a boycott on A2 milk in the Fonterra article

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/906dbcae#/906dbcae/26

[mfd]

Fleeting reference about a boycott on A2 milk in the Fonterra article

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/906dbcae#/906dbcae/26

Equally fleeting references including A2 in the 'alright to buy' list

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/17/waleed-aly-dairy-milked-dry/

http://www.mamamia.com.au/dairy-you-need-to-buy-to-help-australian-farmers/

You'd think A2 would do well from people being more discerning about buying milk to support farmers, as they pay a premium compared to the larger companies.

[see weed]

Bit of green starting to appear, at long last, or is it another DCB?:confused:

[see weed]

Somethings going on , millions on both sides of depth.

[sb9]

Somethings going on , millions on both sides of depth.

The big boys in play, they came out for shopping...

[smtrader]

The big boys in play, they came out for shopping...

It was across the board.. trademe, skycity, airnz and every other big stock

[sb9]

It was across the board.. trademe, skycity, airnz and every other big stock

True, but in last few days when most of other stocks up, ATM has been languishing pretty badly though...

[couta1]

Somethings going on , millions on both sides of depth. Index rebalancing day today being May 31st so a lot of stocks showing strange behaviour, especially near closing.

[sb9]

Somethings going on , millions on both sides of depth.

Whopping total of 18 mln shares traded today of which more tha 13 mln traded after market at 158. Surely someone is accumulating big time at higher price for the day it seems....

[blobbles]

Bit of a downtrend forming here, MA lines have looked a bit poor past week or so, get out while you can? Probably just a speed bump for long termers

[whatsup]

when is the next profit ann due, do we have a very leaky boat here ?

[blobbles]

when is the next profit ann due, do we have a very leaky boat here ?

Don't think so, latest drop due to the Chinese government changing the milk suppliers requirements again. It's becoming a bit of a crap shoot figuring out if A2 will have access in a year or 3. Chinese govt keep shifting goalposts.

[couta1]

when is the next profit ann due, do we have a very leaky boat here ? No news is good news, ie No profit downgrade so business as usual, August for next set of figures.

[Golfer01]

No news is good news, ie No profit downgrade so business as usual, August for next set of figures.

IMHO - I believe result will be as forecast a few months ago but F17 will be softer due to IF sales slowing in China and Ozzie (grey channel sales). I off loaded on Friday as sentiment is driving the SP down. I'm planning on sitting tight for a few weeks and getting back in when it has been oversold...

[couta1]

Probably all those Hot Chopper holders getting depressed after all the euphoria, now selling out.

[King1212]

Probably all those Hot Chopper holders getting depressed after all the euphoria, now selling out.


Yeah..they are hard out there...ramping it up and down....

[see weed]

Any takers there for 1.40? Looks tempting:).

[Joshuatree]

Don't think so, latest drop due to the Chinese government changing the milk suppliers requirements again. It's becoming a bit of a crap shoot figuring out if A2 will have access in a year or 3. Chinese govt keep shifting goalposts.

Agree that thats the likeliest cause for the weakness atm.

[sb9]

Any takers there for 1.40? Looks tempting:).

Have you got some today see weed, I'm watching eagerly and will dip in on more weakness...

[sb9]

Big pre-market trades mostly international...


5
4
9:44:22 am
140.5
8,546,124
$12,007,304
International


6
3
9:26:15 am
140.9
250,000
$352,250
International


7
2
9:06:58 am
140.3
733,647
$1,029,307
International


8
1
9:06:56 am
143.9
831,167
$1,196,049
International

[Ggcc]

Could this be a pump and dump scenario?

[sb9]

Could this be a pump and dump scenario?

Not sure how to read it though, one thing is sure though is that big players are playing it behind scenes. Nothing much has changed fundamentally from company's business point of view barring the Chinese e-commerce tax scenario.

[sb9]

Sourced from HC...

"a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M)

Leading stockbroker and financial services provider Bell Potter initiated coverage on a2 Milk today with a buy rating and placed a $1.81 price target on its shares. With the shares closing yesterday at $1.31, this price target implied upside of a massive 38% for investors. The market has reacted well to the news, with the shares up by around 6% in early trade."

Those quoted prices are in AUD by the way...

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/283830

Inclusion into ASX 200 from close of trade 17th June, expect some large activity between now and then.

[Absolute144]

So, will they be doing an Aussie ipo then? Where are the shares that are gonna get traded in the asx gonna come from?

[sb9]

So, will they be doing an Aussie ipo then? Where are the shares that are gonna get traded in the asx gonna come from?

Sorry you lost me there re Aussie ipo, its already listed and trading on ASX. To your second question, the shares have to be bought on stock market. Hope its helps!!!

[Snow Leopard]

So, will they be doing an Aussie ipo then? Where are the shares that are gonna get traded in the asx gonna come from?

Trades under the code A2M
Not to be confused with ASX listed ATM which is Aneka Tambang, that means Assorted Mines in Indonesian.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[King1212]

Hi all..I just want to share a story from one of a2 milk customer today.

Like usual, every weekend I go and pick up a2 milk at countdown. There were only 3 bottles left on the shelf. A mature lady followed behind me. Me and her started a conversation regarding a2 milk. I told her why I bought a2 milk instead of normal milk as my wife has a digestive issues. So her and her husband, as she said when u getting old, the digestion system is getting worn out and a2 milk is very helpful.

She told me about her fantastic experience related with a2 milk. The lady always does a regular dentist check up. She told me that her teeth always built up with lot of tartar and she always scared as her dentist would clean it up hard out since she did not like the sound of the machine.

Anyhow, on her last visit, her dentist told her that her tartar was less than normal and not built up like usual. Her dentist got confused as she has been a regular patient but this time there was a significant change. Her gum and teeth look very healthy and cleaner.

Her dentist told her the news and asked her about her diet. What did actually she eat? She told the dentist she has changed nothing...normal diet just like normal..nothing really. The lady did reflect and wonder, the only thing she changed in her diet so far is the milk. She has been drinking a2 milk for almost a year....and she wondered a2 milk helps to prevent it....

Does anyone experience any other health benefits since drinking a2 milk a part of digestive issues?

Very interesting to hear that....a2 milk will become people choice now...

[kizame]

Sourced from HC...

"a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M)

Leading stockbroker and financial services provider Bell Potter initiated coverage on a2 Milk today with a buy rating and placed a $1.81 price target on its shares. With the shares closing yesterday at $1.31, this price target implied upside of a massive 38% for investors. The market has reacted well to the news, with the shares up by around 6% in early trade."

Those quoted prices are in AUD by the way...

Hmmn.. So they bought some just recently,and would like to get it back up to the price it was hovering at for quite some time,so they can offload?
Funny how they come up with a price that was the consensus of private investors a few weeks ago,so that would suggest that most private investors/traders are better at valuing this company than they are,as the privates came up with this price around Dec. 15

[longy]

I have only used A2 milk on a handful occasions. When Countdown don't seem to hold too much of them as often it ran out when I went there. I went there just for the milk as Pak and Save don't have them.

I like it better than other milk. I like to taste of it in my tea or coffee. It could be all in my head and I felt it more settle in my tummy afterward.

[sb9]

Two big funds Challenger and Greencape have increased their holding big time in time for a possible market update and FY results.

[Leftfield]

Two big funds Challenger and Greencape have increased their holding big time in time for a possible market update and FY results.

Market seems to like this news today. Go ATM.

[sb9]

Market seems to like this news today. Go ATM.

Yes so far so good and glad ASX is closed is today or else who knows the gains would've all but gone by now. Those shorters on ASX are at this one big time, wait and see until tomorrow!!!

[Leftfield]

Yes so far so good and glad ASX is closed is today or else who knows the gains would've all but gone by now. Those shorters on ASX are at this one big time, wait and see until tomorrow!!!

Noted. I will curb my enthusiasm while waiting for the next results update with cautious optimism.:cool:

[Ginger_steps_]

Maybe worth an email to management? Perhaps another factor to be considered in future studies?

The apocalypse nears as the devil in the A1 milk emerges in multiple forms! Cognitive impairment, inflammation, medically diagnosed lactose intolerant people able to consume a2 - very excited about this companies future. Topped up at 1.51 - then got a bit sketched out at 1.40 but should have got another parcel!

[silverblizzard888]

Full year forecast revised upward
Group revenue is now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million and Group Operating EBITDA in the range of $52 million to $54 million for the 2016 financial year .

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/284057

[Trigger]

Full year forecast revised upward


Group revenue is now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million and Group Operating EBITDA in the range of $52 million to $54 million for the 2016 financial year .

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/284057

Will be interesting to see how the ASX reacts to this later today.

[longy]

I am like]ing the forecast...Estimating about 10% increase in EBITDA for 2016 FY.


Group revenue is
now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million and Group
Operating EBITDA in the range of $52 million to $54 million for the 2016
financial year .

[longy]

A2M was up yesterday on ASX while ATM dropped on NZX... Wasn't that interesting?

Anyhow... let see if it breaks $1.90?

[see weed]

Any takers there for 1.40? Looks tempting:).
:):):D:):)

[sb9]

:):):D:):)

Loving it...just to refresh the numbers from last upgrade....

Revenue to be $300 to $315 Mln and EBITDA of $33 to $37 Mln from last upgrade...
Revenue to be $350 to $360 Mln and EBITDA of $52 to $54 Mln from today's upgrade!!!

And if you know them well enough they always under promise and over deliver. Based on this I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are tab higher come actual results announcement time in August...

[777]

Remember they hit 2.61 in February. Sold mine at 2.52. Back in though.

[Leftfield]

Great news today for holders. Confirms ATM's potential as a diversified dairy company with a credible point of difference and well established in several key markets including Australia, UK and China. Whoopee!

[blackcap]

Great news today for holders. Confirms ATM's potential as a diversified dairy company with a credible point of difference and well established in several key markets including Australia, UK and China. Whoopee!

Going ballistic on the Hotcopper site. Interesting that there is much more discussion there (albeit of less substance) than on here. I think about 90 odd posts already this morning....
well done holders!

[Snoopy]

Great news today for holders. Confirms ATM's potential as a diversified dairy company with a credible point of difference and well established in several key markets including Australia, UK and China. Whoopee!


I agree with the 'credible point of difference', but disagree strongly with the rest of Left Fields post.

A2 is not diversified at all, and relies on a single product output: A2 milk. It is the least diversified company possible, as if A2 suddenly becomes 'bad science' then the whole company becomes worthless. Note that I am not suggesting that A2 actually will be found wanting. Only pointing out that if this happened, the 'all in one milk bucket strategy' -the opposite of diversification- means the company would collapse.

A2 is well established only in Australia, and the Australian performance looks like it is being propped up with sales of 'Australian A2 infant milk formula' to China.

The update was on A2 favourably navigating their way through the evolving import restrictions into China. But there was no mention made of the UK and USA. These are clearly a best still in the development phase or at worst in deep trouble.

IMO despite the progress, they have not nearly justified their share price to date and at any price starting with $1 remain grossly overvalued by any fundamental measure you care to name.

SNOOPY

[barleeni]

Market update advises anticipating having $50million cash in hand at end FY16. Any chance some of this will be dispersed as dividends? if they gave $30million back as a dividend that would be roughly 4c per share?

[blobbles]

Ooh, SNOOPY down on ATM again, time to top up? :-)

130% revenue growth this year on last. Currently selling $430m worth of product annualised. Most definitely cash flow positive, but unlikely to return dividends (and I don't think they should) as cash could be used for growth in the US/UK. A modest 20% increase in sales on what they are currently selling would make ATM a $560m revenue company, easily achievable in my books given the ramp up on their supply side and seemingly endless growth in China (plus any results from a massive marketing campaign). Could be $500m plus and $80-100m in earnings with those numbers, 12-15c EPS with more future growth. The science is looking more solid every year, the release of the upcoming large Chinese study should be a watershed moment as well.

Really don't mind holding long term, billion dollar company by end of the decade is my pick.

[Ginger_steps_]

Ooh, SNOOPY down on ATM again, time to top up? :-)

130% revenue growth this year on last. Currently selling $430m worth of product annualised. Most definitîely cash flow positive, but unlikely to return dividends (and I don't think they should) as cash could be used for growth in the US/UK. A modest 20% increase in sales on what they are currently selling would make ATM a $560m revenue company, easily achievable in my books given the ramp up on their supply side and seemingly endless growth in China (plus any results from a massive marketing campaign). Could be $500m plus and $80-100m in earnings with those numbers, 12-15c EPS with more future growth. The science is looking more solid every year, the release of the upcoming large Chinese study should be a watershed moment as well.

Really don't mind holding long term, billion dollar company by end of the decade is my pick.
It's already a billion dollar company. I assume you mean revenue however, and if it takes that long i will be bitterly disappointed!

[mfd]

A2 is not diversified at all, and relies on a single product output: A2 milk. It is the least diversified company possible, as if A2 suddenly becomes 'bad science' then the whole company becomes worthless. Note that I am not suggesting that A2 actually will be found wanting. Only pointing out that if this happened, the 'all in one milk bucket strategy' -the opposite of diversification- means the company would collapse.



I hate to say it, but even losing the science isn't necessarily the end these days. For example, homeopathy is a multi-billion industry despite having absolutely no credible evidence for it working.

[Leftfield]

I agree with the 'credible point of difference', but disagree strongly with the rest of Left Fields post.

A2 is not diversified at all, and relies on a single product output: A2 milk.
SNOOPY

Hi Snoopy, I appreciate your comments, and just wanted to point out that the term 'diversified' can relate to more than just products. A2 is Internationally diversified, it is not merely reliant on the NZ and/or Aust market. It is also well diversified in terms of product supply and distribution.

In terms of diversified products it is very wise to concentrate initially on raw milk and infant milk formula however, when appropriate it can further diversify into products such as yoghurt, dairy food snacks, cheese and ice-cream etc. (I understand ice-cream has been tested in the Aus market, but personally wonder about this as it sends mixed marketing messages. IMHO Yoghurt would be much smarter.)

That said, I agree it is early days for this company, and much needs to be achieved, but I am very happy to hold a small amount of ATM in my portfolio.

[blobbles]

It's already a billion dollar company. I assume you mean revenue however, and if it takes that long i will be bitterly disappointed!

Oops yes, revenue :-)

And my guesses were for next year FY. At current revenue growth, 2 years to be a billion dollar revenue company, but not sure if they could keep up with this years growth, USA and UK would need to take off.

[Snoopy]

I hate to say it, but even losing the science isn't necessarily the end these days. For example, homeopathy is a multi-billion industry despite having absolutely no credible evidence for it working.


I had second thoughts on what I posted along these lines mfd, so thank you for raising the 'science' point. There are many on this thread who hang on tenderhooks as the scientific trials get rolled out. Favourable scientific trials I see more as a perpetual 'push forward' that will ultimately improve the credibility and hopefully sales of the company. But I see A2 more as a 'marketing company', and to generalize they are top notch marketers.

Being a top notch marketer is no guarantee of success in all markets. They have proved themselves in Australia but not in New Zealand. And once they really start to push in the US, they will be up against all sorts of top notch marketers in the traditional home of top notch marketing. So there are no guarantees.
But I do think that it is probably more important, short to medium term, to get the marketing right ahead of getting the science right.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Hi Snoopy, I appreciate your comments, and just wanted to point out that the term 'diversified' can relate to more than just products. A2 is Internationally diversified, it is not merely reliant on the NZ and/or Aust market. It is also well diversified in terms of product supply and distribution.


ATM are diversified in terms of having more than one farm supplying A2, sure. But I think they would still be vulnerable to regional disease risk.

ATM is entirely reliant on the Australian/Chinese (not sure it is possible to separate the two) market, as other markets are not profitable. Not unexpected at this part of the business development, but definitely a funding engine with all its eggs in one basket nevertheless.



In terms of diversified products it is very wise to concentrate initially on raw milk and infant milk formula however, when appropriate it can further diversify into products such as yoghurt, dairy food snacks, cheese and ice-cream etc. (I understand ice-cream has been tested in the Aus market, but personally wonder about this as it sends mixed marketing messages. IMHO Yoghurt would be much smarter.)


All the above rely on the A2 brand and associated A2 benefits though. Using A2 milk in value added products is a good strategy, but none of these products would stand up without the A2 milk brand behind them. So not really diversification in my eyes.



That said, I agree it is early days for this company, and much needs to be achieved, but I am very happy to hold a small amount of ATM in my portfolio.


Nothing wrong with holding a small amount if you are a believer. I too am a believer, but not at anything like current market prices. Too much blue sky built in already is what I see as the problem.

SNOOPY

[Leftfield]

Thanks Snoopy. A few of points.
1.) Product diversification depends on the stages of a company's lifecycle. I can recall in the 1980's an USA investment in CocaCola was criticised because the company was perceived as 'single brand' and not diversified enough.
2.) A2 has a unique scientific story behind it's product, and this science allows it to command a useful premium. It is a story that my stomach believes literally. I can only digest A2 milk and there are a growing number of loyal A2 followers like me. That said the company needs to be careful to align itself with 'healthy' products and I'm unsure if A2 ice-cream is a wise move.
3.) In Jan 2016 I recorded on this thread that I had sold half my ATM holding (acquired at an av of $0.58c) when the market was $2.40. My ATM holding is now a 'free-holding'. Is that safe enough for you? I consider myself a long term holder and continue to support this company.

[Bjauck]

...
3.) In Jan 2016 I recorded on this thread that I had sold half my ATM holding (acquired at an av of $0.58c) when the market was $2.40. My ATM holding is now a 'free-holding'. Is that safe enough for you? I consider myself a long term holder and continue to support this company. Perhaps only half of you is a long-term holder; the other half of you snapped up the chance to cash-in the when the share price spiked up. Would you do the same again if you considered the price gets ahead of itself? You have now recouped your original investment outlay in ATM, so your support for ATM comes "free" to you now.

[Leftfield]

Perhaps only half of you is a long-term holder; the other half of you snapped up the chance to cash-in the when the share price spiked up. Would you do the same again if you considered the price gets ahead of itself? You have now recouped your original investment outlay in ATM, so your support for ATM comes "free" to you now.

Fair comment. Tho' I'm happy with my current holding at the mo', and may purchase more, but in general I'm not great at picking 'highs' and 'lows'. Hence my tendency to stay 'long term'.

[Snoopy]

Thanks Snoopy. A few of points.
1.) Product diversification depends on the stages of a company's lifecycle. I can recall in the 1980's an USA investment in CocaCola was criticised because the company was perceived as 'single brand' and not diversified enough.


"Single brands" can be very successful. But that is not an argument to say that they are not diversified, so it doesn't matter. In the case of Coca Cola, they now sell fruit juice and bottled water in NZ. So even if they weren't diversified in the 1980s, that doesn't mean they didn't see diversification as a good idea back then, as they do now.



2.) A2 has a unique scientific story behind it's product, and this science allows it to command a useful premium. It is a story that my stomach believes literally. I can only digest A2 milk and there are a growing number of loyal A2 followers like me. That said the company needs to be careful to align itself with 'healthy' products and I'm unsure if A2 ice-cream is a wise move.


So you are admitting to user bias in your valuation? I wouldn't discredit the scientific research on A2, or argue with your personal experience. But I would suggest that you are assuming that all other people who have an issue with A1 will automatically follow your example. They might for instance go over to Soy Milk, or give up milk altogether. Both are equally valid solutiuons to their A1 milk problem. A2 is not a monopoly solution to a consumer problem.



3.) In Jan 2016 I recorded on this thread that I had sold half my ATM holding (acquired at an av of $0.58c) when the market was $2.40. My ATM holding is now a 'free-holding'. Is that safe enough for you?

I know it is easy to think this way. But Mr Market today has no memory of what net price you acquired your shares at. The market price today is a measure of your stake in this company, and that is probably 'a reasonable amount' in your case. However if you still think your shares in A2 are 'free' consider this. Why don't you just give them to me? They are 'free' right, so this will cost you nothing and really help a fellow 'Sharetrader' out.

SNOOPY

[Leftfield]

I give up Snoopy - You win!

Me off for a weekend escape, happy with my ATM

[Snoopy]

I give up Snoopy - You win!

Me off for a weekend escape, happy with my ATM

Ok Thanks. Send to me the certificate for your ATM shares in the mail. Merry Christmas and Thanks Very much.

SNOOPY

[NT001]

I wouldn't discredit the scientific research on A2, or argue with your personal experience. But I would suggest that you are assuming that all other people who have an issue with A1 will automatically follow your example. They might for instance go over to Soy Milk, or give up milk altogether. Both are equally valid solutiuons to their A1 milk problem. A2 is not a monopoly solution to a consumer problem.

Why move to soy milk? Soy milk is more expensive than A2 and does not have the same nutirional value. The only logical reason for moving to soy milk rather than A2 milk (if it's available) would be if you suffer from an allergy or intolerance to all real milk, regardless of whether it's A1 or A2.

[Snoopy]

Why move to soy milk? Soy milk is more expensive than A2 and does not have the same nutritional value. The only logical reason for moving to soy milk rather than A2 milk (if it's available) would be if you suffer from an allergy or intolerance to all real milk, regardless of whether it's A1 or A2.


Logically you are probably right NT001. But you can add nutrients to Soy Milk to make up for any raw nutritional deficiencies, and some Soy Milk makers do just that. Soy milk is not outrageously expensive, $2.40 for the long life stuff at Pak n Save. And my Pak N Save doesn't even stock A2 milk.

SNOOPY

[see weed]

Lot of stocks dropped at end of day re..Brexit. Noticed A2M on the ASX went the other way and got pushed up at end of day. Someone bought 10,000,000, might have something to do with a2m joining the asx200 after 17/6/16.

[nextbigthing]

And my Pak N Save doesn't even stock A2 milk. SNOOPY

Snoopy my dear friend, I suspect even if your local Pak n Save did sell A2 milk, you'd spend five years analysing whether it was a good purchase or not and in the mean time the price would increase 500% from when you first considered purchasing.

NBT

*I do appreciate your analysis though.

[stoploss]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/milk-brands-head-to-court-in-latest-skirmish-in-australias-milk-wars-20160617-gplbbs.html

[blundoon]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-sues-lion-over-branding-claims/news-story/ca1c644773624ad3c25bb8232ad66e0e

The photo above in The Australian doesn't show the offending product, so I have attached a pic that I took in Coles, Cairns. I have also seen Pura use the same misleading and deceptive labels in Adelaide.
I know for a fact that some people are buying the D/F product thinking that they are getting pure A2 milk.

8135

[blundoon]

I see that the paywall has gone up on the article above, so I have copied and pasted it below:-

a2 Milk sues Lion over branding claims

Damon Kitney (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Damon+Kitney)




http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e7c4a4a90196e41e6aaed4c1b9ee33a1?width=650




a2 alleges Lion’s milk labelling is misleading and deceptive. Picture: Calum Robertson

The booming a2 Milk company has launched legal action against Japanese-owned food and beverage multinational Lion Group over the labelling of its Australian milk brands.

Lion, which markets the Pura and Dairy Farmers brands and is owned by the Japanese brewing conglomerate Kirin, is being sued by a2 over moves to market its milk products with the tag “Contains A2 protein” which a2 alleges is misleading and deceptive under the Australian Consumer Law.
A2 yesterday launched the action in the Federal Court in Sydney after it claimed Lion had failed to respond to correspondence on the issue over the course of almost two years.
A2 has long marketed its milk on the basis that it comes from cows hand-picked to naturally produce only A2 protein, which makes it easier to digest.
Some viewed the marketing as a stunt and last year a2 launched legal action against the ABC for defamation.
In its latest claim a2 alleges Lion’s marketing was misleading and deceptive for consumers because, unlike a2, it did not change the protein composition of its milk.
It said Lion’s packaging represented to consumers that the Pura and Dairy Farmers brands were the same as or similar to a2 Milk, or that they had the same protein composition as a2 Milk or had the same or similar benefits as a2 Milk. It said as a result some consumers had purchased Pura & Dairy Farmers milk under the false impression that they were buying a2 Milk.
A2 this week issued its third profit upgrade in six months.
It is seeking an injunction permanently restraining Lion from including on its packaging the alleged misleading and deceptive statements plus damages and interest.
Lion declined to comment.

[see weed]

Have been buying in again in the last few weeks. So have kept a close eye on the depth. Can someone tell me why a certain buyer and seller, probably the same person, has 30,000 to buy and 30,000 to sell, and every couple of minutes they change the order on both buy and sell side up and down by 1c. this has been going on for about 3 weeks now. Is this what they call massage the sp:confused:?

[Absolute144]

Have been buying in again in the last few weeks. So have kept a close eye on the depth. Can someone tell me why a certain buyer and seller, probably the same person, has 30,000 to buy and 30,000 to sell, and every couple of minutes they change the order on both buy and sell side up and down by 1c. this has been going on for about 3 weeks now. Is this what they call massage the sp:confused:?


Some of you may find this interesting. Though it is to do with A2 on the ASX market. ..

Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 07-Jul-2016, ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)

No responsibility is accepted for any inaccuracies contained in the matter published.
Securities that have had no short sales actively reported for the date shown are excluded from this report.

ASX Company Name Product/ Reported Gross Issued % of issued capital
Code Class Short Sales (a) Capital (b) reported as short
ASX + CHI-X sold (a)/(b)
1PG 1-PAGE LIMITED FPO 45,430 112,827,228 .04
3PL 3P LEARNING LIMITED.. FPO 140,227 139,034,170 .10
A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 346,427 712,000,065 .04

[Absolute144]

Some of you may find this interesting. Though it is to do with A2 on the ASX market. ..

Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 07-Jul-2016, ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)

No responsibility is accepted for any inaccuracies contained in the matter published.
Securities that have had no short sales actively reported for the date shown are excluded from this report.

ASX Company Name Product/ Reported Gross Issued % of issued capital
Code Class Short Sales (a) Capital (b) reported as short
ASX + CHI-X sold (a)/(b)
1PG 1-PAGE LIMITED FPO 45,430 112,827,228 .04
3PL 3P LEARNING LIMITED.. FPO 140,227 139,034,170 .10
A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 346,427 712,000,065 .04

Actually , just follow the link....
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

[Jasemc]

When are we due for next results? Any people prepared to risk their reputations on what they think news out of uk and USA will be.

[sb9]

When are we due for next results? Any people prepared to risk their reputations on what they think news out of uk and USA will be.

FY results are due out end of August and I bet they surely beat the previous guidance given last month. I believe UK is going great and US making god progress, if you go to their website they've updates from those places....

[NT001]

A2M has just given a presentation at a big expo in London on allergies and intolerances. The company's nutrition chief Rick Miller and one of their UK farmers were featured in one session, and two Chinese professors who took part in the recent A1/A2 research trial in Shanghai (including the lead scientist) were brought over to talk about how A2 appears to be the answer to lactose intolerance for a lot of consumers. It's great to see the company being so front-footed and generating lots of public interest in the UK. We just have to see how well that's translating into commercial success.

[sb9]

Rumour mill is ripe over in Aus re an article in AFR about a possible takeover of Bellamy's. If there is any substance to that, it should have a positive influence on ATM too, as these guys were already subject to a foiled takeover before by Dean Foods US.

[see weed]

Every time I push the button to buy, it is AIR instead of ATM. Would like to get more ATM, but AIR is in the lime light at the moment. Maybe next week for ATM:).

[sb9]

Every time I push the button to buy, it is AIR instead of ATM. Would like to get more ATM, but AIR is in the lime light at the moment. Maybe next week for ATM:).

I'm afraid the boat might've left the shore by then....:)

[westcoaster]

http://axcessnews.com/national/health/hidden-milk-intolerance-may-suffering_1107/

[see weed]

I'm afraid the boat might've left the shore by then....:)
Just bought 7000 at $2. Hope it helps the good cause, but don't know how long it will stay there.

[sb9]

Just bought 7000 at $2. Hope it helps the good cause, but don't know how long it will stay there.

Good on ya mate, I've done enough buying when it was on sales around that 140-160 level. With FY results due out in 5 weeks I doubt if there much of downward pressure. And I'm quite confident there'll be another upgrade around that time too.

What will put fire under this rocket is an announcement from SML re further capacity upgrade to meet the surging demand!!!

[see weed]

Good on ya mate, I've done enough buying when it was on sales around that 140-160 level. With FY results due out in 5 weeks I doubt if there much of downward pressure. And I'm quite confident there'll be another upgrade around that time too.

What will put fire under this rocket is an announcement from SML re further capacity upgrade to meet the surging demand!!!
Yeah just a waiting game now. Me happy here too:D, average price $1.20 and in the green, and also took advantage in the 1.40s-1.50s:t_up:.

[blobbles]

Technical stars aligning here? MA30 vs MA100

[see weed]

Share price looking strong heading into full year results next month. What do ya think.....maybe a little div announcement....We are making so much dosh, and would like to give some back to shareholders;).

[sb9]

Share price looking strong heading into full year results next month. What do ya think.....maybe a little div announcement....We are making so much dosh, and would like to give some back to shareholders;).

100% no chance for divvy yet. Reason being they're just hitting huge growth phase and with investments in UK and USA yet show any profitability I doubt if they be contemplating on dividends at the moment.

Moreover from recent upgrades cash on hand was about $50 mln or so and if they were to give 5c or 10c that's like $35m or $70m on roughly 700 mln shares on issue.

[Jasemc]

What do people think about the court case against Lion that has started in Australia? Might affect share price the uncertainty?

[sb9]

What do people think about the court case against Lion that has started in Australia? Might affect share price the uncertainty?

The judge y'day has adjourned the case for next hearing in mid September.

[sb9]

Just sold 52000 in the last 3 days, which had bought from 20/5/16 to 24/6/16, a bit risky, but made bit over $21,000:).

Good on a ya mate...surely its great trading stock if you're upto it and have got finances.

[Jasemc]

Yes well done. Down she goes! wonder if she will bounce back before results or drift downwards.

[sb9]

Yes well done. Down she goes! wonder if she will bounce back before results or drift downwards.

In the short term there would be some weakness as markets hate uncertainty. I think Lion are trying a long shot here, let's wait and see how its plays out.

[sb9]

a2 Milk Company’s Peter Nathan says farmers have rushed its door
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1642fffe6e8d1d2f800173aec7358fbb?width=320
a2 Milk chief executive Peter Nathan discusses farmers’ desires to access China. Picture: Aaron Francis



ELI GREENBLAT (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Eli+Greenblat)
The Australian
12:00AM July 28, 2016

The a2 Milk Company (A2M (http://markets.theaustralian.com.au/shares/A2M/the-a2-milk-company-limited)) says dairy farmers have made a rush for its doors, asking to supply milk to the booming dairy and infant formula producer, attracted by the premium it pays for a2 protein products at a time when global milk prices have collapsed.

Peter Nathan, the Australia and New Zealand boss of a2 Milk, said the company had taken on new farmers since processor Murray Goulburn slashed its milk price for suppliers by more than 10 per cent in April, which sparked a similar move by New Zealand’s Fonterra, plunging farmers into financial despair.

However, a2 Milk, which last month issued its third profit upgrade in six months, bolstered by insatiable demand for its products in China despite a regulatory crackdown, would be cautious bringing on new supply.

“We clearly have a lot of farmers who would gladly supply us, and we would need to obviously talk to them, to audit their herds, select the a2 cows,’’ Mr Nathan told The Australian after appearing on a lunchtime panel for Australia Business Forum’s Australia-China Business Week.

“There are a number of farmers who have expressed interest in supplying us based on the fact they do gain a significant premium,” he said. “And we have taken on new farmers, and will continue to look for new farmers, but we need to make sure the supply meets the demand and we don’t get in front of ourselves.”

a2 Milk’s biggest supplier is the Perich family’s Leppington Pastoral Co. Its prices are about 30-40 per cent higher than those paid to farmers supplying the likes of Murray Goulburn and Fonterra.

Business is thriving for companies such as a2 thanks to huge demand from China for its infant formula range, with the company recently updating its full-year forecast to project revenues of $350m-$360m for the current financial year and pre-tax earnings of $52m-$54m.

However, shares in a2 Milk, as well as other dairy and health market darlings Blackmores and Bellamy’s Organic, took a tumble in April when the Chinese government announced a crackdown on foreign goods, such as infant formula and vitamins, entering the country.

Mr Nathan said a2 Milk was well progressed on having its export registration ready by 2018 as stipulated by the new rulings from Beijing.

“There is a formalised process that we need to go through, that is being documented very well and we need to abide by that process.”

Also on the business panel yesterday, Swisse Vitamins CEO Radek Sali said the health products sector was at the beginning of a “golden age” for selling wellness goods into China

[sb9]

We all know it will be a good result from 15/6/16 announcement. Am still in the green 57k from march 2015 purchase. So don't mind price going down, chance to buy more if that's the case. It could possibly go down for a while then come up again before positive announcement. Or it might do the opposite, depends on which way you look at it :confused::D.

Could've made a good money by doing nice trade in the past few days 186 to 198....

[see weed]

Could've made a good money by doing nice trade in the past few days 186 to 198....
From memory there was one trade at 1.86. Was looking at getting back in, but no sellers at 1.87, and 600 selling at 1.88, and 4000 at 1.89 which I missed out on. So the sp ended that day on 1.90. Have since jumped back in:).

[sb9]

From memory there was one trade at 1.86. Was looking at getting back in, but no sellers at 1.87, and 600 selling at 1.88, and 4000 at 1.89 which I missed out on. So the sp ended that day on 1.90. Have since jumped back in:).

Back up to $2 mark and looking rather solid now...

[see weed]

Back up to $2 mark and looking rather solid now...
Yep, looking good:t_up:.

[sb9]

Further evidence about growing demand for A2 Infant Formula, courtesy Hotcopper...

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/vodcast.htm



We meet the new breed of professional shoppers, buying Australian products to order for a growing Chinese clientele [mp4 (http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/lateline/video/201608/LATs_Daigous_0308_512k.mp4)] (03/08/2016)


ABC Lateline last night, click [mp4 (http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/lateline/video/201608/LATs_Daigous_0308_512k.mp4)] to view the programme and see what it says about A2m.

Bring on FY results on 24th....

[King1212]

Further evidence about growing demand for A2 Infant Formula, courtesy Hotcopper...

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/vodcast.htm



We meet the new breed of professional shoppers, buying Australian products to order for a growing Chinese clientele [mp4 (http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/lateline/video/201608/LATs_Daigous_0308_512k.mp4)] (03/08/2016)


ABC Lateline last night, click [mp4 (http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/lateline/video/201608/LATs_Daigous_0308_512k.mp4)] to view the programme and see what it says about A2m.

Bring on FY results on 24th....


Excellent!!!

[see weed]

Back up to $2 mark and looking rather solid now...
Up to the next level now, with jump from $2 to $2.04 at 11.30 am. Is dat you sb9 accumulating before the big positive results out very soon this month?;)

[sb9]

Up to the next level now, with jump from $2 to $2.04 at 11.30 am. Is dat you sb9 accumulating before the big positive results out very soon this month?;)

Wish I had big deep pockets (like you ;)) to keep topping up. Looking very good now for the results to be due in 3 weeks.

[Jasemc]

Will all depend on if they can increase production to meet IF demand in China. Hopefully announcement in end of year !

[NT001]

Will all depend on if they can increase production to meet IF demand in China. Hopefully announcement in end of year !

I disagree that it "will all depend" on if they can increase production to meet IF demand in China. Viewing A2MC as a one-trick pony with everything depending on IF to China is a risky proposition for two big reasons. Firstly, the China market is subject to a number of influences that A2MC has little control over, ranging from regulatory issues to competitive factors. Not that there's any competition in the "A2 milk" niche, but if the big European formula makers flood the China IF market, either directly or through daigou operators, they could potentially force overall prices in China down.

Secondly, I think we tend to underrate the potential impact of A2MC's operations in the UK, USA and NZ. Amidst all the focus on China, these other markets hardly ever get mentioned in discussions of the A2MC share price. It's not that they are yet having much effect on the balance sheet, but I'd be looking for some fairly interesting announcements about how things are going, which could certainly stimulate positive hopes for the near future and thus help augment the SP.

These could include plans to launch new exports from NZ. Hopefully these would include an expansion of IF production of course. But there are other options too, and A2MC has been carefully keeping its NZ plans under wraps (why tell Fonterra your secrets?). We know it does have plans to become a significant player in NZ as from 2017, and staff on the ground already working on them. NZ is a huge producer of surplus milk and has hundreds if not thousands of farmers standing ready to earn premiums by supplying A2. A more active strategy in NZ could also boost NZ shareholder interest in A2MC, which has nosedived over the past year or so with the emphasis moving to Australia.

[NT001]

It looks like A2MC's law suit against Lion/Pura in Australia to stop them labelling their milk as "A2 Protein" may have yielded results. A contributor to HotCopper who is currently in Western Australia has noticed that Pura's milk bottles there now appear to be carrying a new label that omits the offending text. Not in NSW and Victoria as yet. It'll be interesting to see if Lion has backed down or there's been a settlement.

[sb9]

It looks like A2MC's law suit against Lion/Pura in Australia to stop them labelling their milk as "A2 Protein" may have yielded results. A contributor to HotCopper who is currently in Western Australia has noticed that Pura's milk bottles there now appear to be carrying a new label that omits the offending text. Not in NSW and Victoria as yet. It'll be interesting to see if Lion has backed down or there's been a settlement.

Yeah, noticed that brand change on Pura website (WA). Interesting development this one so soon after the case was adjourned to be heard in Sep.

[see weed]

Am writing this from my first laptop, and have just bought 7000 shares, so looks like it is all working well. Now can go anywhere anytime:) and not be stuck at home. That was 7000 ATM.

[Jasemc]

Wow you will be buying Millions!!!!!!!!

[Leftfield]

From SML's release today...
"Synlait Milk's reported net profit after tax (NPAT) for FY16 is forecast to
be in the range of $34 - $35 million.....
"Mr Penno pointed out nutritional sales of canned infant formula products has
underpinned the FY16 earnings forecast, with a near fourfold increase in
canning volumes from 4,300 metric tonnes (MT) in FY15 to 16,000 MT in FY16."
This got to be good for ATM?

[sb9]

From SML's release today...
"Synlait Milk's reported net profit after tax (NPAT) for FY16 is forecast to
be in the range of $34 - $35 million.....
"Mr Penno pointed out nutritional sales of canned infant formula products has
underpinned the FY16 earnings forecast, with a near fourfold increase in
canning volumes from 4,300 metric tonnes (MT) in FY15 to 16,000 MT in FY16."
This got to be good for ATM?

Just watch both ATM and SML fly today....

[Sideshow Bob]

Just watch both ATM and SML fly today....

Up over 4%. Awaiting update.

[see weed]

Just watch both ATM and SML fly today....
You were right about that:t_up:.Update soon in next couple of weeks hopefully, sooner the better eh SB. Are you as relieved or excited as I am with sp going up 300% in the last 10 months, and 40% of that in the last 7 weeks:D?

[see weed]

Wow you will be buying Millions!!!!!!!!
I wish:). No, not me, maybe a few thousand here and there at the right price;).

[sb9]

You were right about that:t_up:.Update soon in next couple of weeks hopefully, sooner the better eh SB. Are you as relieved or excited as I am with sp going up 300% in the last 10 months, and 40% of that in the last 7 weeks:D?

I'm happy with everything that this lil beauty with the way things are progressing....on the way up again today :t_up:

[see weed]

I'm happy with everything that this lil beauty with the way things are progressing....on the way up again today :t_up:
Yeah, me happy too.Just a few cents a day. Last years results were out on 20/8/15, so not long to go now.Might try and pick up a few more before the big positive results are out, about how well they are doing:cool:.

[sb9]

Yeah, me happy too.Just a few cents a day. Last years results were out on 20/8/15, so not long to go now.Might try and pick up a few more before the big positive results are out, about how well they are doing:cool:.

Good ya mate, notice big lots of international pre-market trades this morning (might be from y'day) 5.5 mln shares transacted at av price of 216.

[Leftfield]

Good ya mate, notice big lots of international pre-market trades this morning (might be from y'day) 5.5 mln shares transacted at av price of 216.

Exciting times. I was happy to add to to my 'free holding' at 1.85. Roll on the results!

[Muppett]

Does anyone have a fundamental or technical prediction/assessment ..... or a broker's/analysts guidance if on the 24 August, ATM reports as follows:

Full year Revenue = $350m --> share price going south?
Full year Revenue = $355m --> share price going south?
Full year Revenue = $360m --> share price to hold or go down?
Full year Revenue = $360m+ --> share price to surge to?

There is no way they can produce another 8000% increase on Net Earnings, as they did to 31 Dec 2015 or can they???

[couta1]

Where do you get that 24th August date from? I can't see any mention anywhere of actual results date, was Aug 20th last year.

[blackcap]

Morningstar reackon they report today.... http://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/CorpCalendar

[couta1]

Morningstar reackon they report today.... http://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/CorpCalendar Hmm, but then they have Spark reporting tomorrow who reported today, let's say tomorrow then.:cool:

[sb9]

From A2 website....
Financial Calendar

24 August 2016 (estimate)
Full Year Results


November 2016
Annual Meeting

[Muppett]

Where do you get that 24th August date from? I can't see any mention anywhere of actual results date, was Aug 20th last year.


I also could not find any reference to when they were due to report, so last week I e-mailed ATM, got a response within a day stating that they will announce there Annual Results on Wednesday 24 August.

[blackcap]

Hmm, but then they have Spark reporting tomorrow who reported today, let's say tomorrow then.:cool:

They do say that these are estimates.... but I think the puzzle has been solved by other posters. Looks like it will be the 24th!

[couta1]

I also could not find any reference to when they were due to report, so last week I e-mailed ATM, got a response within a day stating that they will announce there Annual Results on Wednesday 24 August. Thankyou, straight from the horse's mouth.

[sb9]

Bellamy's have reported strong results this morning...

Revenue up 95% to $244.6 ml
EBIT up 342% to $54.3 ml
NPAT up 322% to $38.3 ml

They've also declared a fully franked divvy of 11.90 cps.

Well, this sets the tone for ATM results next week :)

[couta1]

Bellamy's have reported strong results this morning...

Revenue up 95% to $244.6 ml
EBIT up 342% to $54.3 ml
NPAT up 322% to $38.3 ml

They've also declared a fully franked divvy of 11.90 cps.

Well, this sets the tone for ATM results next week :) Just 5 sleeps to go, a bit like waiting for Christmas when one was a child. I wonder about the possibility of a small divvy being declared?

[sb9]

Just 5 sleeps to go, a bit like waiting for Christmas when one was a child. I wonder about the possibility of a small divvy being declared?

Absolutely, can't wait any longer.

On the divvy side, I doubt if they declare one (even small). They've just started hitting big growth phase in China, UK is likely to be break even or making small profit and US expansion is still to get traction, so they would need cash flow to meet these objectives.

Also, remember their shares on issue are very large 700mln or so, even if say 5c divvy its like payout of $35mln and remember they had about $50 mln cash on hand from their recent trading update. My take is probably no divvy yet, but you never know if they would like to throw a bit of surprise to demonstrate how strong they're growing...

[see weed]

Absolutely, can't wait any longer.

On the divvy side, I doubt if they declare one (even small). They've just started hitting big growth phase in China, UK is likely to be break even or making small profit and US expansion is still to get traction, so they would need cash flow to meet these objectives.

Also, remember their shares on issue are very large 700mln or so, even if say 5c divvy its like payout of $35mln and remember they had about $50 mln cash on hand from their recent trading update. My take is probably no divvy yet, but you never know if they would like to throw a bit of surprise to demonstrate how strong they're growing...
ATM has 723,300,065 shares. A 3c div= $21,699,001.95c pay out. And a 2c div= $14,466,001.30c pay out. I would be happy with either one as a goodwill gesture for us long standing devotees, it would be an unexpected surprise, but don't expect anything:(. If you expect something that doesn't come it's a double downer. If you don't expect anything, and then it eventuates then it's a double upper:).

[NT001]

ATM has 723,300,065 shares. A 3c div= $21,699,001.95c pay out. And a 2c div= $14,466,001.30c pay out. I would be happy with either one as a goodwill gesture for us long standing devotees, it would be an unexpected surprise, but don't expect anything.

That's pretty small beer, not worth worrying about. At this stage I'd sooner see the company still building up reserves, showing the market it has freedom to make new moves without any need for a cap raise.

[Golfer01]

Absolutely, can't wait any longer.

On the divvy side, I doubt if they declare one (even small). They've just started hitting big growth phase in China, UK is likely to be break even or making small profit and US expansion is still to get traction, so they would need cash flow to meet these objectives.

Also, remember their shares on issue are very large 700mln or so, even if say 5c divvy its like payout of $35mln and remember they had about $50 mln cash on hand from their recent trading update. My take is probably no divvy yet, but you never know if they would like to throw a bit of surprise to demonstrate how strong they're growing...


Excerpt from todays release.
Both companies will continue to work closely to forecast demand and supply
for a2 Platinum(R), particularly in relation to the evolving regulatory
environment.

My gut feel is sales have been hit given this situation. The result for 2016 will be as forecast but infant sales are going to slow which is going to have an impact on 2017 forecast. Not long to wait to find out what the 2017 forecast will be but I think the current SP reflects the belief that there is going to be continued growth in this area. I'm not so sure. IMHO.

[sb9]

Excerpt from todays release.
Both companies will continue to work closely to forecast demand and supply
for a2 Platinum(R), particularly in relation to the evolving regulatory
environment.

My gut feel is sales have been hit given this situation. The result for 2016 will be as forecast but infant sales are going to slow which is going to have an impact on 2017 forecast. Not long to wait to find out what the 2017 forecast will be but I think the current SP reflects the belief that there is going to be continued growth in this area. I'm not so sure. IMHO.

I take it the other way, demand is super strong and I'm expecting ATM will invest some money in SML's further capacity upgrades. I'm sure there were few behind doors talks between both parties over past few months...

[blobbles]

One must wonder about the timing.

Just before you announced how much you have grown, you announce signing of a supply contract for the next 5 years.

Methinks that's a good sign for tomorrows news. Especially as they are likely to announce over 100% growth. Normally for a milk supplier a huge jump in growth numbers will mean serious supply side constraints. Due to A2's ability to quickly test cows and separate them into different herds combined with the increased premium which encourages farmers to do so, the supply side from a farm perspective shouldn't be a problem (at least not for long). Now its also not a problem for the processing side either.

[Leftfield]

One must wonder about the timing.

Just before you announced how much you have grown, you announce signing of a supply contract for the next 5 years.

Methinks that's a good sign for tomorrows news.

Hope you are right!

[see weed]

WOW!:t_up:.

[BC_Doc]

Cant say they dont deliver on their revised upward forecasts....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/287749

[Leftfield]

This holder v happy.

Highlights of financial results for the year ended 30 June 2016 (in NZ$)
• Total revenue of $352.8 million – an increase of 127.4% over the prior corresponding period (pcp)
• Net profit after tax of $30.4 million, compared with a net loss after tax of $2.1 million in the pcp
• Group Operating EBITDA of $54.6 million, up from $4.8 million on the pcp
• Group Operating EBITDA as a percentage of sales, before investment in international growth, of 22.4%
• Exceptional growth in sales of a2 Platinum® infant formula in Australia & New Zealand (ANZ) and China, with total revenue of $214.4 million, up 414% on pcp
• Continued growth of fresh milk in Australia, with total revenue up 4%
• An improved financial performance in the United Kingdom, and further progress in repositioning the Company as a specialty milk supplier
• Investment to support the a2 Milk™ launch programme in the United States

[Sideshow Bob]

BOOM! :t_up:

[blobbles]

Look at those earnings! $95m in earnings in NZ/Aus/China from $296m revenue! What a cash generator! If they cut their losses from the other markets, they would likely achieve $100m+ in earnings next year alone. Continual increased investment in the UK/USA markets understandably has an even greater long term pay off.

Great result.

[silu]

Amazing result. Cannot believe that I could buy shares last year at 50c.

[blobbles]

Amazing result. Cannot believe that I could buy shares last year at 50c.

Which is why I bought a shed load!

[silu]

Which is why I bought a shed load!

Me too and I felt a bit bad selling some at $1.10 and $1.60 but then the shares I bought with the proceeds gave me +100% returns as well so I can't be too upset. #HumbleBrag

[Muppett]

Amazing result. Cannot believe that I could buy shares last year at 50c.

Really........ Revenue at the bottom end, EBITDA losses per segment and the rest as expected.
Overall not that good by any stretch of the imagination.

[longy]

Me too and I felt a bit bad selling some at $1.10 and $1.60 but then the shares I bought with the proceeds gave me +100% returns as well so I can't be too upset. #HumbleBrag

I could not believe what I am seeing.... SP drop 7% with earning like this????

[silu]

Really........ Revenue at the bottom end, EBITDA losses per segment and the rest as expected.
Overall not that good by any stretch of the imagination.

I'm a lifelong pessimist so I expected a worse result. All my shares are freehold now so anything that doesn't make the price collapes by 10-20% is fine by me.

[Muppett]

I could not believe what I am seeing.... SP drop 7% with earning like this????

It was not a good result if you read the full analysis!
It is after all a pump and dump stock.

[silu]

ATM share price over $2 has already fully priced in any blue sky projections IMO. Fair MC would be somewhere around the 1.2-1.3 billion mark.

[see weed]

Someone has made a lot of dosh this morning. Now wait and see how a2m reacts on open:).

[blobbles]

It was not a good result if you read the full analysis!
It is after all a pump and dump stock.

Not a good result?? I assume you don't like companies with massive cash reserves, revenue growth at over 125%, earnings growth at more than 1000% and excellent future prospects?

Awaiting Snoopy's commentary about how they are about to go out of business...

[BC_Doc]

Someone has made a lot of dosh this morning. Now wait and see how a2m reacts on open:).

Fascinating stuff. A2M opening will definitely be interesting to watch. Best to stay right out of the frenzy though and hold tight.

[see weed]

Fascinating stuff. A2M opening will definitely be interesting to watch. Best to stay right out of the frenzy though and hold tight.
Come on BC Doc, get into the ride, it's great fun. If it wasn't for all the dumpers, how would we make any $. So once all the dumpers have dumped, where to from here;).

[Muppett]

Not a good result?? I assume you don't like companies with massive cash reserves, revenue growth at over 125%, earnings growth at more than 1000% and excellent future prospects?

Awaiting Snoopy's commentary about how they are about to go out of business...

As I said its a pump and dump stock.
And I am holding 300,000 shares!

But EBITDA fro USA & UK down 70% and Corporate EBITDA down 60% and Revenue at the bottom end of expected range ($350-$360m), only $352.8m ....... rest good, NPAT etc...

There was not really anything that was over and above what we already knew, especially when you look at the year end Dec 2015 figures where there was, yes......... an 8000% increase in Net Profit.

Not this time anything spectacular since the previous announcement.

Decision time to sell or not???

[Leftfield]

Muppet, what better performing stock would you choose to replace ATM with in your portfolio?

[BC_Doc]

Come on BC Doc, get into the ride, it's great fun. If it wasn't for all the dumpers, how would we make any $. So once all the dumpers have dumped, where to from here;).

The rollercoaster is fun until the wheels fall off haha. I for one have no doubt the financials are strong and surely people can't expect a company to smash its forecast every time!?! But alas, traders will be traders, and dumpers will dump :sleep: no matter how solid a company looks on paper

[blobbles]

Is EBITDA even important when looking at markets where the company states quite explicitly they are ploughing money into in order to gain market share? What's important is revenue growth, marketing, brand awareness and setting up a solid platform for future sales. As far as I can see, they are executing that rather well. 1800 stores now stock A2 in the US and they could easily drop 10's of millions of $$ in marketing campaigns there.

As Left field states, what other companies are of such a size/scale listed on the NZX that are performing so well?

Let traders trade these days away, remember long term the market is a weighing machine. I would urge people to not get involved in the trading which will occur over the next few days. Likely others (or automated software algorithms) are far better at it than yourself.

[Muppett]

Muppet, what better performing stock would you choose to replace ATM with in your portfolio?

Good question. Well I am still in.

My point was not so much to criticise the company as a whole, but really to say that the SP had already priced in the good news/performances from the previous announcements and that there was nothing additional to get the SP moving north in this morning's confirmation of the figures.

So people/dumpsters took their profit this morning.

With no unexpected/additional positive figures to excite, why would investors expect an increase in the opening SP today?

[blobbles]

Good question. Well I am still in.

My point was not so much to criticise the company as a whole, but really to say that the SP had already priced in the good news/performances from the previous announcements and that there was nothing additional to get the SP moving north in this morning's confirmation of the figures.

So people/dumpsters took their profit this morning.

With no unexpected/additional positive figures to excite, why would investors expect an increase in the opening SP today?

Investors wouldn't expect an increase in the opening SP today. That's why none of us have talked about it :-)

Traders may though, so as you say, good to see them exiting and hopefully being replaced by investors.

[Leftfield]

Good question. Well I am still in.

So people/dumpsters took their profit this morning.

With no unexpected/additional positive figures to excite, why would investors expect an increase in the opening SP today?

Muppett, Good decision IMHO, always easy to be influenced by day traders and profit takers, however the longer term trend is what excites me about this coy. Surely it is going to outperform NZX top 50 for some time to come.

ps I really liked the latest UK marketing campaign ("A2tonishing! Ordinary on the outside. Extraordinary on the inside") and can't wait to see them start some real marketing in NZ in 2017.

[klid]

Hmm VWAP $2.236 with $35m volume. I pick up a couple at $2.08.

[see weed]

Hmm VWAP $2.236 with $35m volume. I pick up a couple at $2.08.
What do you think, mum and dad investors read in tomorrows paper on how well ATM is doing, and they all pile in and push sp back up to $2.30:D.

[Leftfield]

Hmm VWAP $2.236 with $35m volume. I pick up a couple at $2.08.

Cunning plan, well executed, looks like a bounce will favour you (if not today - then someday!)

[see weed]

So that's ATM done and dusted for the next few months. Who's the next cab off the rank... maybe AIR:).

[limmy]

PE ratio extremely high at 179, even at this price. Furthermore, 0 percent Div yield.

[Muppett]

So that's ATM done and dusted for the next few months. Who's the next cab off the rank... maybe AIR:).

You are not wrong there.
As per my post on the 18/8/2016, SP headed south as expected with poor revenue figures confirmed today.
Now have to wait 3-6 months for some possible further good news.

All fun really.:)

[Snow Leopard]

PE ratio extremely high at 179, even at this price. Furthermore, 0 percent Div yield.

SP = $2.10, EPS = $0.0421, P/E = ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Muppett]

SP = $2.10, EPS = $0.0421, P/E = ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

At a wild guess 50...... who knows?

[jim9358]

Hmm VWAP $2.236 with $35m volume. I pick up a couple at $2.08.

thanks for sharing! dived in myself at 2.1 :cool:

[couta1]

So that's ATM done and dusted for the next few months. Who's the next cab off the rank... maybe AIR:). With the volatile nature of this stock, it's subject to wild swings so don't think you can say it's done and dusted, expecting bursts of action to continue.

[jim9358]

With the volatile nature of this stock, it's subject to wild swings so don't think you can say it's done and dusted, expecting bursts of action to continue.

Looks good for a little while though with short MA finally crossing back over longer MA late June begin July with general trend up.

[see weed]

With the volatile nature of this stock, it's subject to wild swings so don't think you can say it's done and dusted, expecting bursts of action to continue.
Sorry, I should of said it's done and dusted in my portfolio. Have finished trading ATM at the moment, but still have the original holding bought at 50c a year or so ago:).

[stones]

And up we go again

[King1212]

8253


Updated

[Muppett]

8253


Updated

Great article. Thanks.
Target price of A$2.38 "sounds" good.

[blobbles]

$450m revenue estimate from Bell Potter is WAAY too low. Remember they made (from their graph on pg 4 of their report) 63% of the revenue from H2. That is 222.5m (353*.63). Double this and you have their full year next year based on the last half year - $445m. This is current revenue annualised based on last half year.

So Bell Potter are suggesting they expect only 5m in revenue growth above what they made last half year - a rather pitiful growth rate of 27% YOY and 1% more than they currently make in revenue. Considering they just grew 127% in the year, I would suggest momentum is with them that we can expect at least 30% growth on last half year = $580m+ revenue at least and 63% YOY growth.

[Leftfield]

$450m revenue estimate from Bell Potter is WAAY too low. Remember they made (from their graph on pg 4 of their report) 63% of the revenue from H2. That is 222.5m (353*.63). Double this and you have their full year next year based on the last half year - $445m. This is current revenue annualised based on last half year.

So Bell Potter are suggesting they expect only 5m in revenue growth above what they made last half year - a rather pitiful growth rate of 27% YOY and 1% more than they currently make in revenue. Considering they just grew 127% in the year, I would suggest momentum is with them that we can expect at least 30% growth on last half year = $580m+ revenue at least and 63% YOY growth.

Let's hope you are right Bobbles! IMO another likely cause for a healthier sales increase, is an improvement on the supply problems they encountered in FY16.

[Muppett]

And up we go again

Challenger sold off, now the Aussies are in so the only way is down....... until a takeover appears

[see weed]

Gee this is worse than looking after a bad lot of kindergarten kids. Turn your back for 5 minutes and they have all run down the road:mellow:. Knew I shouldn't of gone on that scenic flight with AIR this morning:ohmy:. These shares are misbehaving, might have to go see the Principal.

[King1212]

Gee this is worse than looking after a bad lot of kindergarten kids. Turn your back for 5 minutes and they have all run down the road:mellow:. Knew I shouldn't of gone on that scenic flight with AIR this morning:ohmy:. These shares are misbehaving, might have to go see the Principal.

heavily played by oz punters...

[see weed]

heavily played by oz punters...
Yeah they seem to be shaking the tree again. Notice the 30,000 masseur is back again pushing their sell order up and down every couple of minutes to try and push sellers to sell 1c lower. Looks like a2m on the ASX is on the turn. Is it the days bottom though?

[King1212]

Yeah they seem to be shaking the tree again. Notice the 30,000 masseur is back again pushing their sell order up and down every couple of minutes to try and push sellers to sell 1c lower. Looks like a2m on the ASX is on the turn. Is it the days bottom though?

this stock has huge potential...with 2 child policy on the horizon plus well set up Chinese regulation..i think will be blue sky ahead...

[blobbles]

Just leave your investment alone for a few months, will be back up if not higher once they realise the analysts predicted basically zero growth. Think about the fundamentals, huge growth numbers 2 years in a row, big markets they are breaking into that they can throw a lot of marketing money at now, more than positive cash flow, science growing better by the day and now secure supplier agreements that smooth regulatory issues with their largest growth market (IF into China).

Be careful when you see the SP dropping short term, easy to hit the sell button, but you may regret it long term...

[Leftfield]

Just leave your investment alone for a few months, will be back up if not higher once they realise the analysts predicted basically zero growth. Think about the fundamentals, huge growth numbers 2 years in a row, big markets they are breaking into that they can throw a lot of marketing money at now, more than positive cash flow, science growing better by the day and now secure supplier agreements that smooth regulatory issues with their largest growth market (IF into China).

Be careful when you see the SP dropping short term, easy to hit the sell button, but you may regret it long term...

Well said! (I would add that they have also ironed out supply prob's e.g. SML agreement.) This long term holder is v happy.

[stones]

Well said! (I would add that they have also ironed out supply prob's e.g. SML agreement.) This long term holder is v happy.
...and totally agree. Patience is a virtue

[Jasemc]

Over coming months, the Board will continue to review its capital management


strategy, consistent with the funding requirements for the ongoing growth of


the business. We intend to update shareholders on this at our annual meeting


in November."

This is to me is the most interesting comment.In the report. A2 need to make a announcement I think at agm that will show how it is going to increase revenue. We know uk USA are just ticking along . Australia also will I think stay much the same if not fall back a small amount.We know China loves a2 baby powder but probably not a huge increase comming from there for next year like last. I'm wondering what they could announce. Maybe new Asian markets for IF. Maybe more capital raising to make a big push somewhere else. Any thoughts. I just feel they need something !

[kizame]

I think the US is such an important market to break into,maybe it will be a partner/shareholder whom can either help fund or market into this huge economy,really I feel they need to concentrate there.

[King1212]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/science-or-snake-oil-a2-milk-better-you-regular-cow’s-milk-the-conversation-ck-193562

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/science-or-snake-oil-a2-milk-better-you-regular-cow’s-milk-the-conversation-ck-193562

Nothing kind of article, despite the provocative headline.

[RTFQ]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/science-or-snake-oil-a2-milk-better-you-regular-cow’s-milk-the-conversation-ck-193562

As a company the same could be said of "Wet and Forget". A good business generally always has a point of difference from its competitors and that may be just the way it's products are marketed.

[see weed]

ATM up to it's old tricks again. Looks like $1.80 here we come , in the short term.

[Ginger_steps_]

Over coming months, the Board will continue to review its capital management


strategy, consistent with the funding requirements for the ongoing growth of


the business. We intend to update shareholders on this at our annual meeting


in November."

This is to me is the most interesting comment.In the report. A2 need to make a announcement I think at agm that will show how it is going to increase revenue. We know uk USA are just ticking along . Australia also will I think stay much the same if not fall back a small amount.We know China loves a2 baby powder but probably not a huge increase comming from there for next year like last. I'm wondering what they could announce. Maybe new Asian markets for IF. Maybe more capital raising to make a big push somewhere else. Any thoughts. I just feel they need something !




I looking for a move into Canada, a2 Chocolate (although this may be controversial), a2 cheese....

[Leftfield]

I looking for a move into Canada, a2 Chocolate (although this may be controversial), a2 cheese....

A2 yoghurt would make me happy!

[kiwi_on_OE]

A2 yoghurt would make me happy!

I would have thought organic is an obvious variation. Get a double premium on the price.

[Ginger_steps_]

A2 yoghurt would make me happy!
http://www.jalna.com.au/products/a2-yoghurt.html or do you mean other flavoured etc?

[Leftfield]

http://www.jalna.com.au/products/a2-yoghurt.html or do you mean other flavoured etc?

Thanks Ginger Steps..... you've made me happy! :)

I take it as a good sign that ATM are chasing useful product extensions and partnerships. (All I have to do now is get my local NZ supermarket to stock it.)

[dobby41]

Lion countersues over A2 milk marketing
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/lion-countersues-over-a2-milk-marketing-193610

[Harrie]

How dumb is that? First you splash over standard milk that it naturally contains a2 protein then you start to argue that there is no benefit over standard milk. Begs the question, if that's the case then why have it splashed across the milk carton. There can only be one reason and that was to trade on the a2mc brand in an attempt to increase sales?

[dobby41]

How dumb is that? First you splash over standard milk that it naturally contains a2 protein then you start to argue that there is no benefit over standard milk. Begs the question, if that's the case then why have it splashed across the milk carton. There can only be one reason and that was to trade on the a2mc brand in an attempt to increase sales?

Why splash A2 on the cartons - because it removes the differentiation.
This law suit means A2 has to prove it is special in the way they imply otherwise why would they see a problem with Lion saying theirs has A2 as well.
They now need to show that A1 is bad which is why A2 is good - since standard milk has both.

[Harrie]

Why splash A2 on the cartons - because it removes the differentiation.
This law suit means A2 has to prove it is special in the way they imply otherwise why would they see a problem with Lion saying theirs has A2 as well.
They now need to show that A1 is bad which is why A2 is good - since standard milk has both.


There is a differentiation between standard milk and a2 only milk, that is the point. a2mc wants it to be differentiated with standard milk. And so it should. Lion is incorrect in trying to remove the differentiation, and mislead the market, plain and simple.

[blobbles]

Why splash A2 on the cartons - because it removes the differentiation.
This law suit means A2 has to prove it is special in the way they imply otherwise why would they see a problem with Lion saying theirs has A2 as well.
They now need to show that A1 is bad which is why A2 is good - since standard milk has both.

I don't see how a judge would want to wade into that debate. Lions claim doesn't make sense to me, if they are able to successfully prosecute A2 for labelling milk A2 and even if there were doubts about the health benefits, when they subsequently put A2 on their own label, would they not be suing themselves? If Lion then claims they only did it for branding purposes, then they cannot make a claim based on health benefits. Frankly, I fail to see a defensible position for Lion here...

Its pretty easy for A2 I think, which is why they are confident. Personally I think the science (and I have read quite a few of the studies, plus personal anecdotes) is not bad. There is not yet absolute proof, there probably never will be. But proof enough for most people. However, if a judge were to rule in Lions favour, they would be setting a precedent of absolute proof for all goods sold. Then anything that is not proven with absolute certainty (which is impossible anyway, if you know anything about science) and is on sale and claims to have health benefits, should be taken down. Goodbye 90% of all vitamins, supplements, skin care, herbal remedies etc etc.

[dobby41]

I don't see how a judge would want to wade into that debate. Lions claim doesn't make sense to me, if they are able to successfully prosecute A2 for labelling milk A2 and even if there were doubts about the health benefits, when they subsequently put A2 on their own label, would they not be suing themselves? If Lion then claims they only did it for branding purposes, then they cannot make a claim based on health benefits. Frankly, I fail to see a defensible position for Lion here...

Its pretty easy for A2 I think, which is why they are confident. Personally I think the science (and I have read quite a few of the studies, plus personal anecdotes) is not bad. There is not yet absolute proof, there probably never will be. But proof enough for most people. However, if a judge were to rule in Lions favour, they would be setting a precedent of absolute proof for all goods sold. Then anything that is not proven with absolute certainty (which is impossible anyway, if you know anything about science) and is on sale and claims to have health benefits, should be taken down. Goodbye 90% of all vitamins, supplements, skin care, herbal remedies etc etc.

Is Lion saying there are health benefits in their milk?
I don't think so.
A2M won't be prosecuted for labelling their milk as being only A2 protien but rather that they claim health benefits in it being so.
If there is nothing special about A2 only milk then there can't be anything wrong with saying the Lion milk has A2 - it does - fact.
I think it is a fairly clever fight back by Lion. If A2 protien isn't special then saying they have it too can't be misleading as it does.

You can't sell things where you claim health benefits that you can't prove.
Vitamin supplements and herbal remedies walk a fine line and they know they do. There have been prosecutions for stepping over that line.

[blobbles]

Is Lion saying there are health benefits in their milk?

Which makes me think... are A2? A2 are claiming stomach discomfort from A1 on all labelling and marketing material I have seen. Hence their "feel the difference" campaign. They are NOT claiming superior nutrition on marketing material from anything I have read or superior health benefits. A2 therefore would only need to prove that A2 causes less stomach upsets, something they know they can do.

[Harrie]

A2M won't be prosecuting for labelling their milk as being only A2 protien but rather that they claim health benefits in it being so

Don't you mean A2M won't be being prosecuted for labelling....etc? If so Why would Lion do that when they are actively promoting the benefits of a2 protein by saying that their milk contains a2 protein? Actually, its irrelevant anyway. The point is that its misleading and people are not buying pure a2 milk, they are buying standard milk, and that's what the case is all about. false and misleading labeling trying to remove the differentiation from public perception.

If there is nothing special about A2 only milk then there can't be anything wrong with saying the Lion milk has A2 - it does - fact

There is something special about a2 milk, its all a2 protein whereas Lions is not, and needs to be differentiated. This is all about the protections that a2mc have very carefully put in place through patents, and they are going to protect them.

[dobby41]

Don't you mean A2M won't be being prosecuted for labelling....etc?
Yes I did mean prosecuted and have corrected that - thanks.


If so Why would Lion do that when they are actively promoting the benefits of a2 protein by saying that their milk contains a2 protein? Actually, its irrelevant anyway. The point is that its misleading and people are not buying pure a2 milk, they are buying standard milk, and that's what the case is all about. false and misleading labeling trying to remove the differentiation from public perception.

Their plan is working then!
I expect they are trying to make A2 not special so there is no reason not to buy their product - after all it contains A2 also.


There is something special about a2 milk, its all a2 protein whereas Lions is not, and needs to be differentiated. This is all about the protections that a2mc have very carefully put in place through patents, and they are going to protect them.

If that is all true then the court case will be very short because that is the essence of the Lion claim.
A2M is trying to keep A2 protein as special, Lion is trying to say it isn't. One will hinge on the other really.
Would be interesting if the process wasn't going to take so long.

[Harrie]

If that is all true then the court case will be very short because that is the essence of the Lion claim.
A2M is trying to keep A2 protein as special, Lion is trying to say it isn't. One will hinge on the other really.

It may or may not be special but that's not the point really, and one that does not need to be proved. The point is that a2mc milk is all a2 protein whereas Lions is not. Its simply a matter of false and misleading advertising. Using a brand name to give rise to the perception that its all a2 protein. Lion could argue that they used A2 rather than a2, however I think the court will see past that as a deliberate attempt to confuse the market into believing something that it is not. The issue will be, can the court be convinced that there was a deliberate attempt to trade on a2's brand or use similar terminology to a2mc's brand and mis lead the public. "naturally contains" and 100% A2 protein are two completely different concepts.

[couta1]

Quite a price hammering at a 43c drop in a week to date, that's big even for A2.