ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[King1212]

I lucky enough sold at $2.80...:t_up: will wait till $2.30 to position myself again!

[Leftfield]

Totally agree with consensus of other posters, outstanding result. Assuming 11 cps earnings at 2.64 that's a current year PE of 24. Seems very reasonable to me considering the growth rate.

I suspect with ATM's growth a forward PE of 28 to 30 is fair and likely......so perhaps this baby heading towards $3.00 sooner or later?

[sb9]

I lucky enough sold at $2.80...:t_up: will wait till $2.30 to position myself again!

I pretty much doubt if we'll see that level again....

Totally agree left field, we might see it inch towards $3 pretty soon.

Apparently Pater Nathan A2 CEO was interviewed on sky business au after the results were out and asked the same question re slowdown of IF sales in 2nd half. His response was they're being very conservative with their estimate, as the problem is with supply not demand as the stuff seems to be flying out of door pretty rapidly.

If some one can post the link to that interview, that's greatly appreciated.

[King1212]

I pretty much doubt if we'll see that level again....

Totally agree left field, we might see it inch towards $3 pretty soon.

Apparently Pater Nathan A2 CEO was interviewed on sky business au after the results were out and asked the same question re slowdown of IF sales in 2nd half. His response was they're being very conservative with their estimate, as the problem is with supply not demand as the stuff seems to be flying out of door pretty rapidly.

If some one can post the link to that interview, that's greatly appreciated.


you never know, just wait till all big boys or shorters book in profit...

[couta1]

you never know, just wait till all big boys or shorters book in profit... Yep, she's highly volatile as we all know, $2.30AU maybe.

[Beagle]

You must be buying or about to then mate? Go on you know you want to.:cool:

Bought some at $2.50 a few days ago mate.


I suspect with ATM's growth a forward PE of 28 to 30 is fair and likely......so perhaps this baby heading towards $3.00 sooner or later?

All of that I would have thought at first glace but I've been out all day so haven't had time to digest the detail of the announcement at all. First impressions I am surprised its at where it is in the mid 260's a few minutes ago. Might have to double down :) First half profit nearly quadrupled on an EPS basis and was well above average analyst expectations.

[couta1]

You must have taken my phone tip the other week Roger?:cool:

[Beagle]

You must have taken my phone tip the other week Roger?:cool:

Always a real pleasure chatting with you mate and yes I was listening as you can see, many thanks :)

[Lola]

You must have taken my phone tip the other week Roger?:cool:

So whats your "tip" for SML?

[couta1]

So whats your "tip" for SML? Be Patient.

[BlackPeter]

I lucky enough sold at $2.80...:t_up: will wait till $2.30 to position myself again!

I assume you are in for a long wait ;)?

[777]

I assume you are in for a long wait ;)?

Or a share split. 4 for 1 at $9.20.

[couta1]

Always a real pleasure chatting with you mate and yes I was listening as you can see, many thanks :) Fasten your seat belt on this one mate, she's more volatile than a molatov cocktail, you'll be right being an Air shareholder though, plenty of practise aye. PS-Hit $2.32 AU a minute ago to highlight the fact.

[Baa_Baa]

I lucky enough sold at $2.80...:t_up: will wait till $2.30 to position myself again!

Did I miss something, when was it $2.80?

[winner69]

Did I miss something, when was it $2.80?


10.00 am today

[Baa_Baa]

10.00 am today

Right, thanks winner, been a busy day ... a sell at $2.80 pretty good trade and timing for today! Technically today is a double top failure, from Dec 1st/2nd 2016. Just an aberration though eh, off to $3.XX soon as those naughty ASX shorters get bored.

[couta1]

Right, thanks winner, been a busy day ... a sell at $2.80 pretty good trade and timing for today! Technically today is a double top failure, from Dec 1st/2nd 2016. Just an aberration though eh, off to $3.XX soon as those naughty ASX shorters get bored. Do shorters ever get bored? addictions are compelling. A little singeing of their rear ends every now and again helps keep them in check.

[see weed]

Do shorters ever get bored? addictions are compelling. A little singeing of their rear ends every now and again helps keep them in check.
Those poor buyers from 2.60 to 2.80s must be feeling a bit disheartened tonight. I wonder if shorting is doing more damage to the market than good. Think, if I was starting out and it happened, would probably sell and never return to the market again. But we all know a2m has a sting in its tail on positive news announcements. But now all the shenanigans are over, I hope, lets see what happens tomorrow. I really do think this shorting will damage the market if it carries on. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Baa_Baa]

Those poor buyers from 2.60 to 2.80s must be feeling a bit disheartened tonight. I wonder if shorting is doing more damage to the market than good. Think, if I was starting out and it happened, would probably sell and never return to the market again. But we all know a2m has a sting in its tail on positive news announcements. But now all the shenanigans are over, I hope, lets see what happens tomorrow. I really do think this shorting will damage the market if it carries on. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Some people trade the ups, others trade the downs. Some trade both, it's all perfectly legitimate. ASX and their supporting trading platforms enable you to short stocks, NZX and the trading platforms are so unsophisticated you can't short stocks unless you have a friendly broker who'll lend you shares. Shorting is a fact of life in the markets, especially the ASX in this context. It won't go away and is only beaten by exuberant longs. So go long, burn some shorts, or keep in mind there are traders who work the downside opportunities.

[couta1]

Those poor buyers from 2.60 to 2.80s must be feeling a bit disheartened tonight. I wonder if shorting is doing more damage to the market than good. Think, if I was starting out and it happened, would probably sell and never return to the market again. But we all know a2m has a sting in its tail on positive news announcements. But now all the shenanigans are over, I hope, lets see what happens tomorrow. I really do think this shorting will damage the market if it carries on. Correct me if I'm wrong. As much as I hate both the concept and result of shorting stocks(If you paid a higher price)apparently it helps create a healthy and efficient market in various ways eg offering a contrarian view and adding liquidity etc etc. Although after today's result I find it hard to believe that the stock is overvalued around the $2.60 level.

[JeremyALD]

Those poor buyers from 2.60 to 2.80s must be feeling a bit disheartened tonight. I wonder if shorting is doing more damage to the market than good. Think, if I was starting out and it happened, would probably sell and never return to the market again. But we all know a2m has a sting in its tail on positive news announcements. But now all the shenanigans are over, I hope, lets see what happens tomorrow. I really do think this shorting will damage the market if it carries on. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You learn though right? I bought this at $2 and ending selling out the first time at $1.75 cause it dropped 8℅ in one day and I freaked out, but I was new to trading at that time. Since I've learnt to hold shares I invest in.

Sometimes a hard lesson is a good one (or at least I tell myself that). This is definitely a share that moves around a lot, so you need to be prepared to go +/- 30% in a short amount of time.

[sb9]

Must tell was bit disappointed with no news re the new products launches as they mentioned at ASM will be rolled out in early 2017, guess they're still doing some groundwork as we're just in mid Feb...may be some news in Mar/Apr...

[sb9]

A2 Milk says its pricing in China is increasing (https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-says-its-pricing-china-increasing-jr-p-199547)

Article from NBR today behind paywall, could someone summarise key points pls...

[see weed]

A2 Milk says its pricing in China is increasing (https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-says-its-pricing-china-increasing-jr-p-199547)

Article from NBR today behind paywall, could someone summarise key points pls...


Don't worry about it, will be old news next week. From the headline, looks like they are making lot more money. As long as sp keeps creeping up:).

[Beagle]

Seems to me they're investing to grow the brand long term and not getting themselves too bogged down in specific's for the current half. and it seems to me like a good stock to hold long term with their incredibly high growth rate. EPS nearly quadrupled, up 290% and its now clear to this hound the company is trading on a very realistic PE multiple for the very high growth this company is targeting for the foreseeable future. On a DCF basis I am expecting analyst upgrades.

[couta1]

Price getting hammered as Directors and Senior management sell shares, Geoff Babidge sold 1 million this time last year as well, still has 600k ordinary and 500k partly paid shares left though. Reason given in notice was in order to gain a more balanced portfolio? Still not a good look after flagging H2 sales would be less than H1 in the H1 Report.

[sb9]

Price getting hammered as Directors and Senior management sell shares, Geoff Babidge sold 1 million this time last year as well, still has 600k ordinary and 500k partly paid shares left though. Reason given in notice was in order to gain a more balanced portfolio? Still not a good look after flagging H2 sales would be less than H1 in the H1 Report.

Sorry couta, he still has 600k ordinary shares and 5mln not 500k partly paid ordinary shares.

[couta1]

Sorry couta, he still has 600k ordinary shares and 5mln not 500k partly paid ordinary shares. Yes I see that, might need glasses, anyway not good for an already falling SP.

[blobbles]

Can't say I am happy about this, will be looking to sell very soon. This is always a huge red flag for me (as well as the rest of the market, I expect).

[sb9]

Yes I see that, might need glasses, anyway not good for an already falling SP.

Yeah short term they'll be weakness in sp, but long term story doesn't change...and plus we're talking about shares which are always high risk/reward class of assets.

[JeremyALD]

Oh well if it falls much more it might be a good opportunity to buy some more. Strange move selling so many shares after a seemingly great report and future pipeline.

[Beagle]

Well having bought back in about $2.50 quite recently I might have to do a Couta1 on this one and average down soon, (sorry Couta1 I couldn't resist)
100 day MA about $2.10 from memory when I looked at it the other day...still in a clear uptrend and strong growth story so no worries.

[percy]

Well having bought back in about $2.50 quite recently I might have to do a Couta1 on this one and average down soon, (sorry Couta1 I couldn't resist)
100 day MA about $2.10 from memory when I looked at it the other day...still in a clear uptrend and strong growth story so no worries.
May pay to get KW's permission first.!.....

[Ggcc]

Well I remember someone say I sold at $2.80 and will buy back at $2.30...... Well done to you sir!!!

[JeremyALD]

Well I remember someone say I sold at $2.80 and will buy back at $2.30...... Well done to you sir!!!

People are so reactive with this share. Any seemingly bad news and this baby drops like a rock, before rising from the grave, falling back again and then going higher than ever before. She can be a tough journey sometimes!

[Beagle]

May pay to get KW's permission first.!.....

LOL


People are so reactive with this share. Any seemingly bad news and this baby drops like a rock, before rising from the grave, falling back again and then going higher than ever before. She can be a tough journey sometimes!

Even more turbulent that AIR shares !

No worries though because average broker target is $2.82 and all five brokers with their fancy DCF models can't possibly be wrong.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/consensus/

[sb9]

Still not a good look after flagging H2 sales would be less than H1 in the H1 Report.

Another one to clarify couta, they've flagged lower IF sales in H2 compared to H1 but materially higher than last year. Not overall lower sales in H2 than H1...

This could be something to do with supply constraints with SML and also non-occurrence of certain key events in H2 compared to H1.

[sb9]

People are so reactive with this share. Any seemingly bad news and this baby drops like a rock, before rising from the grave, falling back again and then going higher than ever before. She can be a tough journey sometimes!

Yes she can go on some wild rides at times...however if you can pick your timing right you'll be well rewarded.

Have set myself some price targets to top up if it gets to those levels, watching with interest and no plans to sell any of current holdings.

[King1212]

Well I remember someone say I sold at $2.80 and will buy back at $2.30...... Well done to you sir!!!

that was me.....:t_up:but I cancelled the order yesterday....just wait and see at the moment

[couta1]

that was me.....:t_up:but I cancelled the order yesterday....just wait and see at the moment Well done, but you got all the lucky breaks to aid your cause. Shorters want to push the price as close to $2 as possible so your patience may pay off.

[King1212]

Well done, but you got all the lucky breaks to aid your cause. Shorters want to push the price as close to $2 as possible so your patience may pay off.

yes..wait till the dust gone n settle...my aim is $2.10ish....

[couta1]

yes..wait till the dust gone n settle...my aim is $2.10ish.... Sold mine out today once it hit 10% down on my latest purchase price, lost half of my gains from selling near the top last week, and made the mistake of buying back too soon (Need to work on that one, even though I knew I should have waited) Not much to hold the price up currently, so let's see where it drifts down to?

[Balance]

One thing I have learnt (the hard way) is not to buy off directors and management. They know the company and its prospects better than anyone else and when they sell, especially three in unison - the act speaks volume more than anything else.

TIL was a fine example - I got out most of my shares when the directors sold last year. Thank goodness for the hard experiences from the past.

THL - bought when the directors kept buying.

PEB - should have sold out when CEO, MD and Chairman sold (portfolio rebalancing, building an extension to the house whatever).

[couta1]

One thing I have learnt (the hard way) is not to buy off directors and management. They know the company and its prospects better than anyone else and when they sell, especially three in unison - the act speaks volume more than anything else.

TIL was a fine example - I got out most of my shares when the directors sold last year. Thank goodness for the hard experiences from the past.

THL - bought when the directors kept buying.

PEB - should have sold out when CEO, MD and Chairman sold (portfolio rebalancing, building an extension to the house whatever). Yes, thanks Balance for your timely reminder. The CEO has actually sold 44% of his share holding in a little over 12 months (I discovered today) he has 5.6 million shares as of today compared to 10 million he held back then. He is of course entitled to sell as many as he wants but the rebalancing of the portfolio excuse is a red herring IMO. Why would you put your money elsewhere, when your money is in the hottest thing since sliced bread?

[King1212]

Sold mine out today once it hit 10% down on my latest purchase price, lost half of my gains from selling near the top last week, and made the mistake of buying back too soon (Need to work on that one, even though I knew I should have waited) Not much to hold the price up currently, so let's see where it drifts down to?

i think I will leave atm for a while...I might wait couple weeks before thier final report...so volatile:eek2:

[JeremyALD]

I still feel like everyone was raving about the results a few days ago and they have a good track record. So many things could make you sell shares in ATM, but it always seems to bounce back. I'm just going to hold this time and not look at the share price for a while unless there's significant news. We'll see how that approach goes!

[blobbles]

One thing I have learnt (the hard way) is not to buy off directors and management. They know the company and its prospects better than anyone else and when they sell, especially three in unison - the act speaks volume more than anything else.

TIL was a fine example - I got out most of my shares when the directors sold last year. Thank goodness for the hard experiences from the past.

THL - bought when the directors kept buying.

PEB - should have sold out when CEO, MD and Chairman sold (portfolio rebalancing, building an extension to the house whatever).

This is exactly right and the reason I sold out of both TIL and PEB too. Reflecting back now both were great calls at the time.


Have also sold all my ATM today and I have been a supporter for almost 5 years...

Remember Balance's words - the directors know the company intimately and will sell while the price is high before it drops due to imminent bad news/performance/prospect downgrade. Don't get burned by thinking you know the company/market better than the directors/CEO etc.

[stoploss]

I still feel like everyone was raving about the results a few days ago and they have a good track record. So many things could make you sell shares in ATM, but it always seems to bounce back. I'm just going to hold this time and not look at the share price for a while unless there's significant news. We'll see how that approach goes!

Everyone was raving .However you have new information now ( significant inside selling ).
So you are effectively saying " it's different this time " .....time will tell .

[King1212]

I think I will use the fund to get in HBL spp....ATM is volatile.....with lion court issue, director selling share...low sales in second half....might see people start to book in thier profit. A lot of them awere in since $1 ish.....so...good luck to you all...

[Leftfield]

Sold mine out today once it hit 10% down on my latest purchase price, lost half of my gains from selling near the top last week, and made the mistake of buying back too soon (Need to work on that one, even though I knew I should have waited) Not much to hold the price up currently, so let's see where it drifts down to?

Nice lift today.

Happy holding (with an av price of less than $1,) long term this coy is set to continue to outperform NZX 50 index, and IMHO fair value is still north of today's price.

[sb9]

Nice lift today.

Happy holding (with an av price of less than $1,) long term this coy is set to continue to outperform NZX 50 index, and IMHO fair value is still north of today's price.

Totally agree LF, my av price around the same level and happy to continue to hold for longer term. I agree the directors sell down not good sign, but should we expect them to hold eternal without realising some gains. Personally I do not see anything sinister in that and only saying that from their track record of managing this company so well.

Some of y'day's weakness is also attributable to poor result from Blackmores and with upcoming BAL results soon, there could be bit of volatility in short term.

[Leftfield]

BAL's half yr AUX report out...... often compared to ATM (because of the China infant formula thing but IMHO quite diff companies and markets.)

I've only had a quick look but interesting comparisons to ATM particularly when you compare BAL's stock and cash on hand levels.

Here it is (http://investors.bellamysorganic.com.au/media/d918a515/Bellamy's%201H17%20Results%20presentation.pdf)

[see weed]

I still feel like everyone was raving about the results a few days ago and they have a good track record. So many things could make you sell shares in ATM, but it always seems to bounce back. I'm just going to hold this time and not look at the share price for a while unless there's significant news. We'll see how that approach goes!
From your post 5798... I agree fully with your comment. But am only going to keep the shares bought at 50c. Have just sold the last lot of a bundle bought in the last 7 weeks. Going to stock up with more AIR to get the div, then buy more ATM at a later date before the next announcement. Might as well put the dollars to good use while we wait;). ps.. Noticed we have a lot in common in the stocktastic competition, but can never seem to catch you up lol:).

[kizame]

Big funds are buying in though and increasing their holdings...

[Joshuatree]

Maybe this from someone called KW has something to do with it
"$16B takeover offer for Mead Johnson at 27 times forward earnings, and a 29% premium to current price. How long before A2M is approached?"

[couta1]

Big funds are buying in though and increasing their holdings... UBS bought 10 mill shares the other day, they are notorious short sale manipulators. The possible entry into the ASX 100 in March would be very positive for the share price, so something to keep your eye on.

[sb9]

UBS bought 10 mill shares the other day, they are notorious short sale manipulators. The possible entry into the ASX 100 in March would be very positive for the share price, so something to keep your eye on.

True, anytime UBS get more holding they in turn lend them to shorters to crap the sp...

ASX 100 inclusion would be big boost for ATM....

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/297569

Pater Nathan's (CEO-Aus&NZ) wife buys on market another 20,000 shares, must've heard something good around evening dining table chats :)

[Nasi Goreng]

A2 to purchase 8% of SML for $3.275 per share.

[sb9]

A2 to purchase 8% of SML for $3.275 per share.

Kinda inevitable isn't it, was picking this to happen last year itself. Looking good for CFDA registration to happen later in the year, have a sneaky feeling they will get that the registration without any hassles.

A2 are next biggest holders in SML now after Bright Diary....connect the dots and you can visualise the picture.

[Leftfield]

ATM continues to impress, making all the right moves IMHO. Happy holder.

[Nasi Goreng]

I think this is good for both ATM and SML. It reconfirms that the partnership between the two companies is very important.

SML intend to build more plants and ATM will hopefully be able to fill the capacity.

[Beagle]

A very good mate sent me this.
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2017/03/03/synlait-and-the-a2-milk-company-strengthen-their-alliance/#more-1655

[sb9]

A very good mate sent me this.
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2017/03/03/synlait-and-the-a2-milk-company-strengthen-their-alliance/#more-1655

Thanks Roger, key takeaway for me as per below....

There is considerable chatter within financial circles of the possibility of one of the international majors making a play for A2M. Ongoing formalisation of the alliance with Synlait would be important for any buyer of A2M.

[Beagle]

Thanks Roger, key takeaway for me as per below....

There is considerable chatter within financial circles of the possibility of one of the international majors making a play for A2M. Ongoing formalisation of the alliance with Synlait would be important for any buyer of A2M.

You're welcome mate and yeah, I noted that comment too :)

[winner69]

UBS bought 10 mill shares the other day, they are notorious short sale manipulators. The possible entry into the ASX 100 in March would be very positive for the share price, so something to keep your eye on.

Wouldn't want to be short if a takeover might be around the corner

Though if shorting probably doing OK from when they started

[couta1]

Wouldn't want to be short if a takeover might be around the corner

Though if shorting probably doing OK from when they started Shorters going to get badly burnt over the next couple of weeks, even without a takeover offer.

[Baa_Baa]

This applies to you ATM shareholders as well. Thanks to Jaa for posting.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8537-Fph&p=657636&viewfull=1#post657636

[JeremyALD]

Shorters going to get badly burnt over the next couple of weeks, even without a takeover offer.

When are you buying back in Couta? I'm thinking of buying some more but am waiting for the right time. Seems to be stabilising around $2.40 which is good news I think given how volitie this one can be.

[couta1]

When are you buying back in Couta? I'm thinking of buying some more but am waiting for the right time. Seems to be stabilising around $2.40 which is good news I think given how volitie this one can be. Been buying back in over the last week for a $2.38 average, will be hard to get them much below $2.45 next week IMO. PS-Directors selling down normally spells bad news, but not in this case I've decided.

[Leftfield]

Been buying back in over the last week for a $2.38 average, will be hard to get them much below $2.45 next week IMO. PS-Directors selling down normally spells bad news, but not in this case I've decided.

Hope your interest in ATM is not the 'kiss of death' Couta! :p

Nice to see over in Hot Copper purported evidence from Alibaba that A2 still leading in Chinese IF sales against some pretty impressive competition from the BIG brands. I particularly like the premium pricing margin shown in this screen pic too! Next sales/revenue release from ATM is going to be very interesting.

8726

[Baa_Baa]

"The only people likely to seek compensation would be people in the market for A2 Milk Co and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare shares on the day, Mr Wallis said."

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/warmingers-market-manipulation-expensive-conduct-lesson-expert-says-200292

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/warminger-manipulated-market-court-finds-th-198012

[carrom74]

Been buying back in over the last week for a $2.38 average, will be hard to get them much below $2.45 next week IMO. PS-Directors selling down normally spells bad news, but not in this case I've decided.

Bang On...couta1.Started trading exactly as per your post today.:)

[see weed]

ATM looking 'HOT TO TROT' today:ohmy:.

[Vish]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/297747

Not sure if anyone saw this one.

[Joshuatree]

Yep nasi posted on the third; keep up Vish;)

[Vish]

Mondays :sleep:

[Beagle]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/03/08/is-the-a2-milk-company-limiteds-nzseatm-growth-strong-enough-to-justify-its-march-share-price/

(For the newbie's) a PEG of one suggests the price is very cheap relative to EPS growth.

[Snoopy]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/03/08/is-the-a2-milk-company-limiteds-nzseatm-growth-strong-enough-to-justify-its-march-share-price/

(For the newbie's) a PEG of one suggests the price is very cheap relative to EPS growth.


I prefer to look at the figures in this article in a different way.

The article suggests that ATM is cheap relative to other 'Food & Beverage' shares because the average PE for this sector is 40.2, and ATM is trading on a PE of 29.9. ATM is predicted to grow at an average of 17% compounding over the next three years. By implication, this could suggest that food and beverage earnings overall will grow by rather more than 17% compounding over the next three years. That clearly is not going to happen. So what these figures are telling us is that this is a bad time to be investing in food and beverage in general, even if ATM is not overvalued.

But is ATM undervalued? Draw a growth curve on top of any current situation and it is easy to convince yourself that almost any share is undervalued. There are a couple of key questions to ask here.

1/ Can even current sales be sustained? ATM has had two big successes. The first is getting prime shelf space with the Australian supermarket duopoly. The second, which is partly boosting the growth of the former, is sales in the infant formula market in China where ATM has not only taken advantage of a growing market, but has grown market share at the same time. I think ATMs competitors will fight back, and I think that when you take the China growth out of the Australian market, the historical Australian market growth paints a picture that will not easily be followed in other markets.

2/ Can ATM grow into new markets, principally the UK and USA in the medium term? The first attempt to break into the USA failed, and the UK market is taking far longer to penetrate than expected. The fact that neither of these markets has a supermarket duopoly means that market acceptance will not be quick just because A2 is adopted by one supermarket player. The second problem I see is that ATM must secure an ever increasing supply of A2 milk to keep growing. This is far from easy to do in the short to medium term. The uncomfortable truth for shareholders is that ATM has a very poor record of doing business outside of their Australian/Chinese primary market, and it will take years to upgrade the milk supply chain to satisfy any further growth ambitions.

At a PE of 29.9, shareholders are assuming:

1/ that establishment as a highly profitable player in the UK is a done deal, AND
2/ a decent beachhead of US success is already priced in, AND
3/ that China will keep growing with no sales reversals.

To keep a PE of 29.9 in 2020 , a realistic plan to conquer other markets, like Europe and Indonesia will have to exist. Since no such plans do exist and ATM has a track record of more failure than success in new markets, my conclusion is that ATM is currently priced to perfection and consequently grossly overvalued.

In the past I have spent time trying to derive a realistic value for ATM. But IMO, ATM is so obviously grossly overvalued that it is a waste of time to even calculate a figure. You only need to look at CEO Babbage's selling down of his own ATM holdings at every opportunity to see this.

SNOOPY

P.S. Just in case anyone gets the wrong end of the stick, I think that A2 milk is a great brand and one that will continue to enjoy market success. The problem I see is that all of A2's greatness is already priced into the share price. So from an investor perspective, buying ATM today, there is no money to be made.

[couta1]

Just leave the money making in this stock to others aye Snoopy. Long term holders have made a stack, shorters and traders have, and will continue to make plenty of dosh. Only those sitting on the sidelines will make no money.

[Beagle]

A2M gains entry into the ASX 200 Index effective 20 March 2017.

[carrom74]

A2M gains entry into the ASX 200 Index effective 20 March 2017.

What would be the advantages Roger? Please enlighten me thanks.

[Beagle]

What would be the advantages Roger? Please enlighten me thanks.

Correction All Australian 200 ASX200 index. Index tracking funds will be buying. When in gained entry into the ASX300 index we saw a significant move upwards in price. This doesn't guarantee an increase in price this time but I would think on the balance of probabilities...

Sorry Snoopy I haven't got time this morning to debate the issues with you, happy to follow my own snout on this one.

[couta1]

Correction All Australian 200 ASX200 index. Index tracking funds will be buying. When in gained entry into the ASX300 index we saw a significant move upwards in price. This doesn't guarantee an increase in price this time but I would think on the balance of probabilities...

Sorry Snoopy I haven't got time this morning to debate the issues with you, happy to follow my own snout on this one. Just shy of making the ASX100, actually A2 has been in the ASX200 since June 17th 2016, so I don't think there has been any change? What's the difference between the All Australian ASX200 and the S&P/ASX200 in real terms?

[Beagle]

Just shy of making the ASX100, actually A2 has been in the ASX200 since June 17th 2016, so I don't think there has been any change? What's the difference between the All Australian ASX200 and the S&P/ASX200 in real terms?

Good question mate, anyone know ?

[BlackPeter]

Good question mate, anyone know ?

https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-asx-all-australian-200

[Beagle]

https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-asx-all-australian-200

Thanks BP - so I guess their inclusion in this index is to do with their Australian listing. How many Australian investment funds track the All Australian ASX200 would be something that I guess we'll see played out over the next week or two in terms of its effect on the SP, (if any).

[couta1]

Thanks BP - so I guess their inclusion in this index is to do with their Australian listing. How many Australian investment funds track the All Australian ASX200 would be something that I guess we'll see played out over the next week or two in terms of its effect on the SP, (if any). Probably won't make any difference as Aussie based Insto's are already all over this stock, can't see any compulsory rebalancing having to occur.PS-Probably made this index because of its large Aussie shareholder base(The Aussies know how to claim good NZ things as their own aye)

[Beagle]

Probably won't make any difference as Aussie based Insto's are already all over this stock, can't see any compulsory rebalancing having to occur.PS-Probably made this index because of its large Aussie shareholder base(The Aussies know how to claim good NZ things as their own aye)

Yeah mate even since before Phar Lap.

[Snow Leopard]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/03/08/is-the-a2-milk-company-limiteds-nzseatm-growth-strong-enough-to-justify-its-march-share-price/

(For the newbie's) a PEG of one suggests the price is very cheap relative to EPS growth.

1/. I have tried out simplywall.st and the 'fundamental analysis' it provides - I am totally unimpressed.

2/. A PEG ratio of 1 suggests the price is right for the EPS growth and 'the newbies' should look up references to this themselves in reliable online sources rather than believe posters round here [Tigers excepted :)]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/consensus/

I see average N.Z. analyst expectations of EPS growth and current PE and therefore PEG ratio line up with aforementioned analysis.
PEG of 1 is cheap in my book.

[kizame]

PEG of 1 means it is reasonable value,meaning it is priced right compared to expected growth rate.
Less than 1 and you are getting really good value,the lower the number under 1 the cheaper compared to expected growth the stock is.
More than 1 and you are paying a premium.

[Beagle]

In this market with an average forward PE for the market as a whole of circa 18 times earnings a PE of about 29 for a company with expected growth of 30% per annum it seems to me that ATM is cheap relative to the market overall. Market and valuation theory needs to be reviewed contextually and in relativity to interest rates and overall market PE.
One only needs to look at the must slower growth rate of other companies on the NZX50 with a PE of circa 30 to validate my viewpoint.

[kizame]

In this market with an average forward PE for the market as a whole of circa 18 times earnings a PE of about 29 for a company with expected growth of 30% per annum it seems to me that ATM is cheap relative to the market overall. Market and valuation theory needs to be reviewed contextually and in relativity to interest rates and overall market PE.
One only needs to look at the must slower growth rate of other companies on the NZX50 with a PE of circa 30 to validate my viewpoint.

I think if you start looking at the over value in some of the other stocks with a PE of 30 and much less than 30% projected growth,and comparing,thinking maybe a peg of 1 or maybe 1.4 for the stock your looking at is now reasonable,you run the risk of getting caught out in a correction. The whole idea of peg is to buy value,and a good way to put a value on a high growth company with an expanded pe ratio. imhop.

[Beagle]

I think if you start looking at the over value in some of the other stocks with a PE of 30 and much less than 30% projected growth,and comparing,thinking maybe a peg of 1 or maybe 1.4 for the stock your looking at is now reasonable,you run the risk of getting caught out in a correction. The whole idea of peg is to buy value,and a good way to put a value on a high growth company with an expanded pe ratio. imhop.

I generally avoid stocks with a forward PE of 30 unless they're supported by that growth rate.

[Snow Leopard]

ATM kicking AIR out of the top 20 (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/254701.pdf) on 20-Mar.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Vish]

Came across this.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-a2-milk-company-launches-new-chocolate-milk-300418553.html

Might be a good thing for them in the US market. Who doesn't like chocolate milk :)

[kizame]

ATM kicking AIR out of the top 20 (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/254701.pdf) on 20-Mar.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

It is, it is , it is ! OMG you just have to talk about it and stuff happens.

[see weed]

Came across this.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-a2-milk-company-launches-new-chocolate-milk-300418553.html

Might be a good thing for them in the US market. Who doesn't like chocolate milk :)
I suggested to the CE0 a couple of years ago at the AGM about chocolate milk. It was about the same time as that other company Creamy Road, I think, started making it. Once those Americans get a taste of choc. milk, they will prob. double their growth:t_up:. My sister in LA told me she is drinking a2 now. Hope NZ gets to share some of this chocm.

[Vish]

Good suggestion! 👍 Wouldn't mind trying some though, bring it to NZ ATM!

[Sideshow Bob]

http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/a438dfaa#/a438dfaa/18

[Sideshow Bob]

Up 12c for the week currently and think up at least up 1-3 c every day this week.

No comment? Or is everyone just waiting for the next update......?

[Leftfield]

Up 12c for the week currently and think up at least up 1-3 c every day this week.

No comment? Or is everyone just waiting for the next update......?

There was considerable comment on the price at the last update...... SP at current levels still underpriced IMHO.

[couta1]

There was considerable comment on the price at the last update...... SP at current levels still underpriced IMHO. Once the index rebalancing is finished, price will drop as shorters kick into full swing, plus our dollar has weakened against the Aussie inflating the SP on the NZX.

[BullishBear]

Once the index rebalancing is finished, price will drop as shorters kick into full swing, plus our dollar has weakened against the Aussie inflating the SP on the NZX.
They wont get mine even if the price goes back to 8c is when I first got notice of this treasure trove.

[Leftfield]

They wont get mine even if the price goes back to 8c is when I first got notice of this treasure trove.

I agree......whether this week is a hiccup or a trend, any concern depends on your investment strategy. I'm in ATM for the long haul and see a good trend developing

8758

[sb9]

Once the index rebalancing is finished, price will drop as shorters kick into full swing, plus our dollar has weakened against the Aussie inflating the SP on the NZX.

Shorters been very active over last 7 to 8 trading days averaging more than 35% with highest for a day being 57%.

Despite their persistent efforts sp has been very resilient and holding its ground.

[Vish]

Sitting back watching the ATM show and holding.

[sb9]

Apparently as per AFR from y'day news is that China backs down on tough cross border e-commerce laws to boost Aus exports to China. And looks like they've indefinitely delayed those rules around complex new licensing and labelling requirements in China....

No stopping now for ATM :t_up:

[sb9]

China backs down on tough new e-commerce laws in boost for Aussie exporters

China has delayed indefinitely tough new-cross border e-commerce laws that had threatened to disrupt the flow of Australian vitamins, milk powder and cosmetics into booming markets on the mainland.

The surprising backdown by Beijing comes ahead of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arriving in Australia on Wednesday for talks on upgrading the free trade agreement and how to eliminate other non-tariff barriers.

The indefinite delay is a big win for vitamin makers Blackmores and Swisse, which were facing complex new licensing and labelling requirements in China. The backdown should also benefit infant formula makers a2 Milk Company and Bellamy's Australia, which have been hurt by uncertainty on how the new regulations would be implemented.

"We welcome the updated regulations from the Ministry of Commerce in China, as it signals a strengthening of the commitment to the cross-border e-commerce channel from the Chinese regulators," Peter Nathan, chief executive of a2 Milk, said

China's Commerce Ministry said goods coming into the country via cross-border e-commerce platforms would be classified as "personal" rather than "common" trade, meaning there would be no additional requirements for local registration or labelling.

[sb9]

Looks like shorters on ASX running like headless chicken this morning .... :eek2:

[hummerh40]

Looks like shorters on ASX running like headless chicken this morning .... :eek2:

It has to be that right? can't believe the stock would rally this much on such marginal news - which was already most likely factored in

[Beagle]

China backs down on tough new e-commerce laws in boost for Aussie exporters

China has delayed indefinitely tough new-cross border e-commerce laws that had threatened to disrupt the flow of Australian vitamins, milk powder and cosmetics into booming markets on the mainland.

The surprising backdown by Beijing comes ahead of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arriving in Australia on Wednesday for talks on upgrading the free trade agreement and how to eliminate other non-tariff barriers.

The indefinite delay is a big win for vitamin makers Blackmores and Swisse, which were facing complex new licensing and labelling requirements in China. The backdown should also benefit infant formula makers a2 Milk Company and Bellamy's Australia, which have been hurt by uncertainty on how the new regulations would be implemented.

"We welcome the updated regulations from the Ministry of Commerce in China, as it signals a strengthening of the commitment to the cross-border e-commerce channel from the Chinese regulators," Peter Nathan, chief executive of a2 Milk, said

China's Commerce Ministry said goods coming into the country via cross-border e-commerce platforms would be classified as "personal" rather than "common" trade, meaning there would be no additional requirements for local registration or labelling.

All blue sky ahead now :t_up: Got a link mate ?

[sb9]

All blue sky ahead now :t_up: Got a link mate ?

Its on AFR behind paywall unfortunately....

[Beagle]

Its on AFR behind paywall unfortunately....

Thanks for replying anyway mate. Interesting that Blackmores is up ~ 11% today and Bellamy's up ~ 8% but A2 up quite a bit less in percentage terms.

[sb9]

Thanks for replying anyway mate. Interesting that Blackmores is up ~ 11% today and Bellamy's up ~ 8% but A2 up quite a bit less in percentage terms.

http://www.afr.com/business/retail/...in-boost-for-aussie-exporters-20170320-gv28fe (http://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/china-backs-down-on-tough-new-ecommerce-laws-in-boost-for-aussie-exporters-20170320-gv28fe)

Here is the link anyway....

[peat]

I agree......whether this week is a hiccup or a trend, any concern depends on your investment strategy. I'm in ATM for the long haul and see a good trend developing

8758
looks a bit like a rising wedge to me
PE 62?
GLTH

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=Atm 4traders has average analyst FY18 PE at 21.9 and that for a company that's just about quadrupled its first half profit compared to the previous corresponding period.

I'm speculating that this announcement today sb9 might also be good for Comvita, what do you think mate ?

[sb9]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=Atm 4traders has average analyst FY18 PE at 21.9 and that for a company that's just about quadrupled its first half profit compared to the previous corresponding period.

I'm speculating that this announcement today sb9 might also be good for Comvita, what do you think mate ?

Yes, today's announcement bodes well for any company doing with China. On your previous point seems like A2 is lagging behind in terms of gains today with only 4% rise whereas BKL and BAL are up close to 13%...

I'm expecting this to push to $3 in the near term :)

[longy]

I am far more comfortable to hold A2 over Bal due to the quality of management. I was very tempting to jump in Bal when the news release yesterday but the lack of transparency from its management was a big turn off for me.

Go A2... Go! :)

[see weed]

Have noticed atm is trading 20c to 24c higher than a2m on the asx in the last couple of weeks. It used to trade about 10c higher before that. Don't think the dollar has changed that much? Would it be because there is less shares in NZ now, it's getting less by the day, and not enough to go around, and NZers have to pay higher price?

[couta1]

Have noticed atm is trading 20c to 24c higher than a2m on the asx in the last couple of weeks. It used to trade about 10c higher before that. Don't think the dollar has changed that much? Would it be because there is less shares in NZ now, it's getting less by the day, and not enough to go around, and NZers have to pay higher price? The difference is in the dollar see weed (It's changed a lot over the last few weeks, although looks to have turned yesterday) nothing else.

[sb9]

Off to new highs or more blue sky ahead...must be coinciding with Chinese Premier's visit to Aus this week and NZ next week :)

[JeremyALD]

Feeling quite proud of myself holding onto my shares when the directors sold down their share and many people bailed out :)

[Beagle]

Feeling quite proud of myself holding onto my shares when the directors sold down their share and many people bailed out :)


^^^^^ This.

[whatsup]

All time high today $2.85, well held all holders who didn't sell with the recent sell off scare .

[sb9]

All time high today $2.85, well held all holders who didn't sell with the recent sell off scare .

Make that $2.87......should test $3 mark very soon imo.

[sb9]

Kaching...BOOM!!!! $2.95 close, all time high :t_up::D

[Beagle]

Kaching...BOOM!!!! $2.95 close, all time high :t_up::D

Interim profit nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year, well in excess of average analyst forecast and the regulatory changes since then auger well for further share price gains too !

[sb9]

Interim profit nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year, well in excess of average analyst forecast and the regulatory changes since then auger well for further share price gains too !

Tomorrow will be an interesting day with Synlait's HY results to be reported. And depending on their commentary the next course of sp will be determined and my pick is it'll be past $3 mark this week.

[kizame]

Tomorrow will be an interesting day with Synlait's HY results to be reported. And depending on their commentary the next course of sp will be determined and my pick is it'll be past $3 mark this week.

Nah we need a nice healthy correction, so I can get back in, I've been left at the bus station a bit.

[RGR367]

Nah we need a nice healthy correction, so I can get back in, I've been left at the bus station a bit.

Better get on it now Kizame as it won't be a bus that the next ride is on, but a hyperloop train :p

[couta1]

Nah we need a nice healthy correction, so I can get back in, I've been left at the bus station a bit. I know that feeling, but better to wait a bit longer for the next bus than get skunked by buying in at a peak.

[JeremyALD]

I know that feeling, but better to wait a bit longer for the next bus than get skunked by buying in at a peak.

Definitely. There'll be something the market will over react to again and ATM will come falling down a bit. It always happens and to be honest looking at the trends is about due to correct by 30 cents or so.

[Kiwi]

Nah we need a nice healthy correction, so I can get back in, I've been left at the bus station a bit.

I agree. Got stopped out a while ago so a big correction would get me back in. Really love this company.

[Leftfield]

SML's report today of a doubling of infant formula production capacity by November 2017 and splitting that increase over 2 plants (to protect against Chinese regs) has got to be good news for ATM.

V happy holder.

[sb9]

Inching close to that magic $3 number....

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like NZ has got a little in front of AU price currently - $2.70 in Oz equates to $2.94, but $2.96 here.

Depends which is driving who!

[sb9]

As a side note on competitor, looks like Bellamy's woes continue to grow as their CFDA requirement won't ne ready by target date of 1 Jan 2018 as per today's release to ASX.

More market share I guess for ATM .... and as per Peter Nathan during recent media discussions they seem to be very confident of achieving the CFDA registration by the required date.

[Beagle]

Inching close to that magic $3 number....

Almost got there..$2.99, closed later in Australia at $A2.74 which based on mid point of inter bank exchange rate = $2.9975, surely with a bit of rounding, (creative twist) that counts as $3.00 right :) all good and makes for a very happy hound for 31 March...one more time, sorry couldn't resist - http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+wagging+his+tail&&view=detail&mid=2299B1757FBD13B8D1CC2299B1757FBD13B8D1CC&FORM=VRDGAR

[Gonzo]

the tale wagging the dog

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11829514

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11829514

Read that article Roger, great publicity for ATM, isn't it..should test the $3 mark this week I'm guessing and wouldn't be nice if Geoff comes a lil upgrade after looking at March quarter numbers :)

[couta1]

Read that article Roger, great publicity for ATM, isn't it..should test the $3 mark this week I'm guessing and wouldn't be nice if Geoff comes a lil upgrade after looking at March quarter numbers :) Gone over $3 now, thanks to a weak NZ dollar.

[sb9]

Gone over $3 now, thanks to a weak NZ dollar.

Yay...drum roll pls....:t_up:

[Beagle]

Yay...drum roll pls....:t_up:
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=drum+roll+sound&&view=detail&mid=6CEC4E07D037EE3E9B2F6CEC4E07D037EE3E9B2F&FORM=VRDGAR

[couta1]

Snoopy must be staring in unbelief at the current share price.:cool:. PS-Im also staring from the outside in after exiting too early myself.:mad ;:

[longy]

Snoopy must be staring in unbelief at the current share price.:cool:. PS-Im also staring from the outside in after exiting too early myself.:mad ;:

Me too. But I am not chasing its SP. Will be interesting over the next few days to see where it goes from here: :)

[couta1]

Me too. But I am chasing its SP. Will be interesting over the next few days to see where it goes from here: :) There's a whole lot built into the current share price and happy to watch the hype from the sidelines until we get a correction. PS-PE ratio around 38 at current price.

[sb9]

There's a whole lot built into the current share price and happy to watch the hype from the sidelines until we get a correction. PS-PE ratio around 38 at current price.

Only one reason the short squeeze is on....looks like shorters covering their positions.

[longy]

There's a whole lot built into the current share price and happy to watch the hype from the sidelines until we get a correction. PS-PE ratio around 38 at current price.

Ooops...I was meant to say "Not chasing its SP"...Lol.

[JeremyALD]

There's a whole lot built into the current share price and happy to watch the hype from the sidelines until we get a correction. PS-PE ratio around 38 at current price.

I sold out to Couta. Looking at the charts one ounce of bad news will have this will dropping back significantly. ATM has a habit of overreactions (both on the sell side and buy side).

[Beagle]

Only one reason the short squeeze is on....looks like shorters covering their positions.

They have too, margin calls must be getting pretty serious at the current SP.

[Leftfield]

Interesting to see the Simply Wall St site sees even more value ahead to $A3.85. (The following in $A)

8781

Disc - Holding and happy.

[blobbles]

Snoopy must be staring in unbelief at the current share price.:cool:. PS-Im also staring from the outside in after exiting too early myself.:mad ;:

Indeed, Snoopy had once, not so long ago, convinced himself that A2's SP was worth about 10c from memory.

I notice Snoopy is very good at analysing companies negative possibilities but appears to not take into account positive possibilities very well at all...

[couta1]

Interesting to see the Simply Wall St site sees even more value ahead to $A3.85. (The following in $A)

8781

Disc - Holding and happy. For long term holders who bought in early, no worries, but for those who paid $2.50 plus, I wouldn't be putting my faith in one opinion which happens to be out of step with all the other analysts.

[Jonboyz]

For long term holders who bought in early, no worries, but for those who paid $2.50 plus, I wouldn't be putting my faith in one opinion which happens to be out of step with all the other analysts.

Interestingly, simplywall.st reckons, from a summary of 7 analysts, that ATM earnings could go +107% in the next 3 years.

8783

[sb9]

Go you lil beauty....:t_up::D

[couta1]

Go you lil beauty....:t_up::D Although I'd stay well clear of buying in at these lofty prices, you could get trashed when it drops (And it will) Why pay a premium when you don't have to?

[Leftfield]

Although I'd stay well clear of buying in at these lofty prices, you could get trashed when it drops (And it will) Why pay a premium when you don't have to?

Perhaps ATM is looking 'toppy' at a market cap of $2.2 Bill (at SP $3.14) and a PE of 38 however its record is very impressive, sound management, great geographical spread, sound technology and still only just scratching the surface of the many products it could offer/licence (at a premium) e.g. flavoured milk, yoghurt, cheese, ice-cream, etc. Crikey, ATM is even offering the carrot of dividend payments in FY2018.
FY2013 Revenue $94.7 mill
FY2014 Revenue $110.8
FY2015 Revenue $155.1
FY2016 Revenue $352.8
First half FY2017 Revenue $256 mill so ATM may achieve $500 mill plus for the full FY2017.

I welcome other posters estimates of a fair value for ATM, but at the moment Mr Market would seem to be indicating a SP between $NZ 3:00 and $3:50 is achievable. Clearly we all await the next market update with interest.

Disc; DYOR. Holding and happy.

[sb9]

Perhaps ATM is looking 'toppy' at a market cap of $2.2 Bill (at SP $3.14) and a PE of 38 however its record is very impressive, sound management, great geographical spread, sound technology and still only just scratching the surface of the many products it could offer/licence (at a premium) e.g. flavoured milk, yoghurt, cheese, ice-cream, etc. Crikey, ATM is even offering the carrot of dividend payments in FY2018.
FY2013 Revenue $94.7 mill
FY2014 Revenue $110.8
FY2015 Revenue $155.1
FY2016 Revenue $352.8
First half FY2017 Revenue $256 mill so ATM may achieve $500 mill plus for the full FY2017.

I welcome other posters estimates of a fair value for ATM, but at the moment Mr Market would seem to be indicating a SP between $NZ 3:00 and $3:50 is achievable. Clearly we all await the next market update with interest.

Disc; DYOR. Holding and happy.

One thing for sure lf, someone seem to be soaking up all available volume in the past week or so, since the relaxation of cross border e-commerce rules. That effectively derisked most of issues relating to Chinese market.

After that we're now left with CFDA registration eff 1st Jan 2018, which I'm sure A2/Synlait will be granted and the Lion case due for hearing in Nov of this year. And if one were to read the market sentiment Lion would be shivering in their pants looking down the barrel of some hefty penalties which is cream on to for A2 milk.

Then the last bits are fundamentals and market demand which we all very well aware.

Taking all these into account my take is market is essentially rerating A2 at the moment and hence such strong accumulation happening.

Keen an eye out for SSH notices to come out shortly, that'll be telling imo.

Lastly, DYOR:)

[JeremyALD]

One thing for sure lf, someone seem to be soaking up all available volume in the past week or so, since the relaxation of cross border e-commerce rules. That effectively derisked most of issues relating to Chinese market.

After that we're now left with CFDA registration eff 1st Jan 2018, which I'm sure A2/Synlait will be granted and the Lion case due for hearing in Nov of this year. And if one were to read the market sentiment Lion would be shivering in their pants looking down the barrel of some hefty penalties which is cream on to for A2 milk.

Then the last bits are fundamentals and market demand which we all very well aware.

Taking all these into account my take is market is essentially rerating A2 at the moment and hence such strong accumulation happening.

Keen an eye out for SSH notices to come out shortly, that'll be telling imo.

Lastly, DYOR:)

Idk if atm dosent blow it out of the water in the next update it will drop like a rock. I'm a bit guttered about selling too soon but I really wouldn't risk buying in at an all time high given its volatility, especially after announcements

[Beagle]

One thing for sure lf, someone seem to be soaking up all available volume in the past week or so, since the relaxation of cross border e-commerce rules. That effectively derisked most of issues relating to Chinese market.

After that we're now left with CFDA registration eff 1st Jan 2018, which I'm sure A2/Synlait will be granted and the Lion case due for hearing in Nov of this year. And if one were to read the market sentiment Lion would be shivering in their pants looking down the barrel of some hefty penalties which is cream on to for A2 milk.

Then the last bits are fundamentals and market demand which we all very well aware.

Taking all these into account my take is market is essentially rerating A2 at the moment and hence such strong accumulation happening.

Keen an eye out for SSH notices to come out shortly, that'll be telling imo.

Lastly, DYOR:)

Four million crossed at $3.18 just after the close, up another 10 cents today. Rubbing A2 milk into yesterday's wound, feels very soothing...that stupid manuka honey medicine is snake oil rubbish now :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Four million crossed at $3.18 just after the close, up another 10 cents today. Rubbing A2 milk into yesterday's wound, feels very soothing...that stupid manuka honey medicine is snake oil rubbish now :)

ROTFL! :t_up:

[sb9]

Four million crossed at $3.18 just after the close, up another 10 cents today. Rubbing A2 milk into yesterday's wound, feels very soothing...that stupid manuka honey medicine is snake oil rubbish now :)

That's massive...something's up for sure, glad some pain eased for you from this one Roger :)

[couta1]

Idk if atm dosent blow it out of the water in the next update it will drop like a rock. I'm a bit guttered about selling too soon but I really wouldn't risk buying in at an all time high given its volatility, especially after announcements I know the feeling, I left a huge amount on the table from my sale price compared to today's close, but there's no way I would have held until now anyway, once a horse has bolted from the stable, wait till it tires itself out before trying to catch it.That nice big MACD curve formation won't be complete until it has a nice bell shape to it, and we know what that means. The next set of results are going to have to be out of this world, It kinda reminds me of Xro in 2013, when that great Wall of money kept driving the price up, and then.

[Leftfield]

7.2 Million shares changed hands today.....that's huge support for today's prices. Perhaps 'something is up' as sb9 suggests. Interesting times.

[777]

7.2 Million shares changed hands today.....that's huge support for today's prices. Perhaps 'something is up' as sb9 suggests. Interesting times.

2 million before opening and 4.3 million after close. Someone taking a big position.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Trading on a FY18 forward consensus multiple of 25 times earnings for a company that recently nearly quadrupled its interim profit and is only just starting to scratch the surface of some international markets.

Over-priced or more potential to come ? From a TA perspective we're making ongoing new highs on high volume and looks very promising. Fundamentally it doesn't look too stretched either. The shorters have all been closed out and properly scalped so that's not really the issue it once was (well...not for now anyway).
A2 has real earnings and highly impressive earnings growth driving its SP growth. Closed at $A2.96 in Aussie, equal to $3.20 here.

[t.rexjr]

2 million before opening and 4.3 million after close. Someone taking a big position.

Prior to the 4.2mill after close VWAP was only $3.06

[Brain]

I certainly misread this one . I was in at 60 c average and out at 180. I thought it was over priced then. Can't complain though I made a fair bit of dosh and to be fair it's good that whoever bought my shares made a bit of dosh as well. Everybody is happy.

[Trigger]

I certainly misread this one . I was in at 60 c average and out at 180. I thought it was over priced then. Can't complain though I made a fair bit of dosh and to be fair it's good that whoever bought my shares made a bit of dosh as well. Everybody is happy.

Me too brain...in at 75c and out at 2.13 (there were some very big swings in very short periods of time). Good luck to those still holding. The prospect of divs and T/O mean that I wish I was still there too. :t_up:

[waikare]

Me too brain...in at 75c and out at 2.13 (there were some very big swings in very short periods of time). Good luck to those still holding. The prospect of divs and T/O mean that I wish I was still there too. :t_up:

In at 21c and intend to stay in..

[enzed staffy]

this reminds me of FPH a wee way back- I thought that was expensive and high PE in the high $3s and waited for a pull back - damn thing just went up up up....away

[777]

Another 2 million before opening.

[Blondie]

Price rise could be due to addition into the SP/ASX 200 on 20/3/17 (ASX:A2M) ???

Blondie

[couta1]

I like watching bubbles from the outside, have been on the inside of them a few times and no one could convince me things were getting bubbly, live and learn aye. PS-I think it's a fantastic company.

[sb9]

In at 21c and intend to stay in..

All credit to you, wow that's lowest entry price I've seen, do you mind sharing which year was it...

[longy]

Another 2 million before opening.

Harbour Asset is reduced their holding.

[longy]

I like watching bubbles from the outside, have been on the inside of them a few times and no one could convince me things were getting bubbly, live and learn aye. PS-I think it's a fantastic company.

Got to leave some on the table for the other guy, else he won't buy it from you.

I was wondering if today is the day it is due for a correction er?

[777]

Harbour Asset is reduced their holding.

True but someone also bought them.

[sb9]

Harbour Asset is reduced their holding.

A net reduction of 229,777 shares out of their holdings of 36mln odd shares...

[waikare]

All credit to you, wow that's lowest entry price I've seen, do you mind sharing which year was it...

Sept. 2011

[iceman]

Sept. 2011

Absolutely right waikare. I started buying in back then. Went in boots and all in Dec 2012 at 51c. But like some others, sold out last year when I believed it was becoming too hyped up. Mistake was to sell all my holding. Should have sold only part of it as ATM had become nearly 40% of my NZX portfolio and was keeping me awake. But exited at a very very good profit and very happy. Great company with a great product.

Lesson: take some profits when you feel like it but never sell 100% of your good performers like I did with ATM. We live and learn

[Leftfield]

Absolutely right waikare. I started buying in back then. Went in boots and all in Dec 2012 at 51c. But like some others, sold out last year when I believed it was becoming too hyped up. Mistake was to sell all my holding. Should have sold only part of it as ATM had become nearly 40% of my NZX portfolio and was keeping me awake. But exited at a very very good profit and very happy. Great company with a great product.

Lesson: take some profits when you feel like it but never sell 100% of your good performers like I did with ATM. We live and learn

The other lesson I take from such success is the value of having 'patient money' and 'investing for the long term'. IMHO such a strategy beats the hell out of short term trading and continually trying to pick the 'high' and 'low' entry/exit points. (Not to mention the tax benefits of not having to pay tax on your capital gains.)

Waikare and other long term holders now 'nicely positioned' should ATM begin paying dividends. Well done!

Disc; I've held ATM since July 2014. My current av holding price is 98c.

[longy]

Absolutely right waikare. I started buying in back then. Went in boots and all in Dec 2012 at 51c. But like some others, sold out last year when I believed it was becoming too hyped up. Mistake was to sell all my holding. Should have sold only part of it as ATM had become nearly 40% of my NZX portfolio and was keeping me awake. But exited at a very very good profit and very happy. Great company with a great product.

Lesson: take some profits when you feel like it but never sell 100% of your good performers like I did with ATM. We live and learn

Given its SP went up and down in the past... it was hard not to sell the lot when the SP rises quite a lot. I have done both... Held on and sold then bought back in. Both worked well for me. In hind sight is easy to see/draw conclusion but have to decide to hold or to let go isn't so easy.

[t.rexjr]

If only we could all invest with 20/20 hind sight... I got out Friday. Current price seems a little nutty.

[Beagle]

Four million crossed at $3.18 just after the close, up another 10 cents today. Rubbing A2 milk into yesterday's wound, feels very soothing...that stupid manuka honey medicine is snake oil rubbish now :)


ROTFL! :t_up:


That's massive...something's up for sure, glad some pain eased for you from this one Roger :)

Thanks guys.


http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Trading on a FY18 forward consensus multiple of 25 times earnings for a company that recently nearly quadrupled its interim profit and is only just starting to scratch the surface of some international markets.

Over-priced or more potential to come ? From a TA perspective we're making ongoing new highs on high volume and looks very promising. Fundamentally it doesn't look too stretched either. The shorters have all been closed out and properly scalped so that's not really the issue it once was (well...not for now anyway).
A2 has real earnings and highly impressive earnings growth driving its SP growth. Closed at $A2.96 in Aussie, equal to $3.20 here.

Market is always forward looking. Not sure why some people think this is overhyped when the FY18 multiple is very reasonable considering the growth rate. Technically this looks very strong. Letting my profits run until such time, (if ever), it breeches the 100 day MA to the downside. Food for thought. Why has the volume been so strong on a rising SP to fresh all time high's ? Obviously lots of others see tremendous ongoing growth potential...

[whatsup]

Thanks guys.



Market is always forward looking. Not sure why some people think this is overhyped when the FY18 multiple is very reasonable considering the growth rate. Technically this looks very strong. Letting my profits run until such time, (if ever), it breeches the 100 day MA to the downside. Food for thought. Why has the volume been so strong on a rising SP to fresh all time high's ? Obviously lots of others see tremendous ongoing growth potential...

Rog, whats the 100 day MA quote/price to the downside by your reconing ?

[Beagle]

Rog, whats the 100 day MA quote/price to the downside by your reconing ?

Looked on Friday mate. $2.40. One of the secrets to investing I wish I'd learned decades ago is to simply keep your finger off the sell button and let your profits run.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looked on Friday mate. $2.40. One of the secrets to investing I wish I'd learned decades ago is to simply keep your finger off the sell button and let your profits run.

I have taken a little off the table today, and sold about 30% of my holding. I've had a great run and have let them run (to an extent), but need the money elsewhere in the coming months so trying to be a little prudent.

But held a good chunk to see where we get to in the short term, and will take it in steps. Average price 67c.

[whatsup]

Looked on Friday mate. $2.40. One of the secrets to investing I wish I'd learned decades ago is to simply keep your finger off the sell button and let your profits run.

Thanks, am still holding due to the low penetration into the chinese market , less than 3 % I think, if that is so there is still a very big upside here, could be wrong but with 3 sets of parents for every child money is no object in that market .

[kizame]

Looked on Friday mate. $2.40. One of the secrets to investing I wish I'd learned decades ago is to simply keep your finger off the sell button and let your profits run.

Totally agree with that one,one of the lessons I'm continually fighting with.

[kizame]

Thanks, am still holding due to the low penetration into the chinese market , less than 3 % I think, if that is so there is still a very big upside here, could be wrong but with 3 sets of parents for every child money is no object in that market .

And that doesn't count the US and other major markets,why would they not want the same benefits.

[iceman]

And that doesn't count the US and other major markets,why would they not want the same benefits.

I think that is what many are waiting for kizame. ATM has done well in China have the potential for good future growth there. But I would like to say them make some serious inroads into the USA or UK/Europe as well. Relying solely on China (of course they're big in Australia too) is a concern with Chinese Government tendencies to change rules abruptly.
ATM is a great company that can hopefully show us a further spread into big overseas markets.

[Leftfield]

Motley Fool picks ATM for it's Easter recommendations

"I have picked out three of my favourite growth shares which I think are in the buy zone today. They are as follows:
The a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M) share price may have rocketed 43% so far this year, but I believe there are still significant long-term gains ahead for shareholders. Especially now the Chinese government has delayed new cross border e-commerce laws indefinitely. These laws had threatened to impact the sales of exporters into China like a2 Milk. Whilst there is always a risk that the laws will return, for now it is business as usual for the company. Because of this I think the the dairy company is a great buy and hold option."

DYOR - Holding

[Rossimarnz]

The production numbers mentioned in the final paragraph of this article make for very interesting reading in terms of ATM

http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/87037/keith-woodford-says-synlait-about-become-dominant-new-zealand-producer-infant

[Beagle]

The production numbers mentioned in the final paragraph of this article make for very interesting reading in terms of ATM

http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/87037/keith-woodford-says-synlait-about-become-dominant-new-zealand-producer-infant

Hmmm, one word springs readily to mind, growth !

[couta1]

Hmmm, one word springs readily to mind, growth ! Now sitting on a PE of around 40, growth will be needed big time, paying around $3.30 would take an extremely positive view on the outlook of the company, and is beyond the realm of even my enthusiastic investing approach. One piece of negative news and the bubble will burst with nowhere to hide IMO.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Trading on a FY18 forward consensus multiple of 25 times earnings for a company that recently nearly quadrupled its interim profit and is only just starting to scratch the surface of some international markets.

Over-priced or more potential to come ? From a TA perspective we're making ongoing new highs on high volume and looks very promising. Fundamentally it doesn't look too stretched either. The shorters have all been closed out and properly scalped so that's not really the issue it once was (well...not for now anyway).
A2 has real earnings and highly impressive earnings growth driving its SP growth. Closed at $A2.96 in Aussie, equal to $3.20 here.


Now sitting on a PE of around 40, growth will be needed big time, paying around $3.30 would take an extremely positive view on the outlook of the company, and is beyond the realm of even my enthusiastic investing approach. One piece of negative news and the bubble will burst with nowhere to hide IMO.

See above post from a little while back mate. As discussed this morning the market is always looking ahead with high growth companies. Its not about the PE this year, market already thinking about the FY18 result and beyond.
Shorters have been well and truly scalped with this one. I see the potential for more stability going forward than the extremely high volatility than what's been experienced in the past as once shorters have been burned badly they'll usually look for new fields of endeavor than risk another savage burning.
Technically its looks very strong eh Hoop :)

[couta1]

Fair enough Roger,but at this point in time I'll leave this stock to other daredevils.

[Leftfield]

Fair enough Roger,but at this point in time I'll leave this stock to other daredevils.

Nice to see Westpac and related interests have joined the other dare devils to the tune of 43 mill shares.

"Nature of relevant interest(s): Relevant interest by virtue of the entities specified in the Annexure (being related bodies corporate of Westpac Banking Corporation) acquiring The A2 Milk Company Limited shares on behalf of funds managed by the related bodies corporate, or in respect of which the related bodies corporate act as responsible entity.
For that relevant interest,—
(a) number held in class: 43,112,062
(b) percentage held in class: 6.00%
(c) current registered holder(s): Refer Annexure
(d) registered holder(s) once transfers are registered: Refer Annexure
For a derivative relevant interest, also—
(a) type of derivative: Not Applicable
(b) details of derivative: Not Applicable
(c) parties to the derivative: Not Applicable
(d) if the substantial product holder is not a party to the derivative, the nature of the relevant interest in the derivative: Not Applicable
Details of transactions and events giving rise to substantial holding
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: Refer Annexure
Additional information
Address(es) of substantial product holder(s):
Westpac Banking Corporation, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia
Advance Asset Management Limited, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000
Asgard Capital Management Limited, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000
BT Funds Management Limited, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000
BT Funds Management No.2 Limited, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000
BT Investment Management (Institutional) Limited, Level 14, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney NSW 2000
BT Investment Management (Fund Services) Limited, Level 14, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney NSW 2000
Westpac RE Limited, Level 20, Westpac Place, 275 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000
JO Hambro Capital Management Limited, Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street SW1 Y 6QG London United Kingdom
Guardian Nominees No. 2 Limited, Level 14, 191 Queen Street, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
BT Funds Management (NZ) Limited, 16 Takutai Square, Auckland 1010, New Zealand

[couta1]

Hey Left field, go and have a look at the prices Westpac paid for their shares on average, a lot less than the current price, so not really dare devils after all, more crafty I'd say.

[Leftfield]

Exactly Couta and of course the current price is/was a bit 'toppy'.

Me just commenting that some big funds like the stock and have bought in.

(That they have paid more than the average cost of my holding makes me sleep easier too!)

[Sideshow Bob]

I sold about 60% of my holding at between $3.18 and $3.24. Needed to take some money off the table, but ready to dive back in if the opportunity arises.....but all is not lost if keeps going.

[sb9]

Exactly Couta and of course the current price is/was a bit 'toppy'.

Me just commenting that some big funds like the stock and have bought in.

(That they have paid more than the average cost of my holding makes me sleep easier too!)

Very true lf, big players have access to plenty of insight into retail market sales trends thro' their subscription to likes of IRIS/AZTEC data whose costs run into tens of thousands of dollars per annum. Unfortunately retails investors like us can never be able to subscribe to those due to high fees.

They certainly look into these sort of data and market trends before committing big funds into any stock.

Am expecting some sort of announcement from the management this month either about new product launches or a surprise earning update.

[Balance]

Very true lf, big players have access to plenty of insight into retail market sales trends thro' their subscription to likes of IRIS/AZTEC data whose costs run into tens of thousands of dollars per annum. Unfortunately retails investors like us can never be able to subscribe to those due to high fees.

They certainly look into these sort of data and market trends before committing big funds into any stock.

Am expecting some sort of announcement from the management this month either about new product launches or a surprise earning update.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300210

Surprise earnings upgrade update it is!

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300210

Surprise earnings upgrade update it is! Probably not a surprise to many, more expected.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300210

Surprise earnings upgrade update it is!

Analysts are going to have to have a good look at their numbers. No other way to describe it, this is a stunning upgrade. I'm buying more.

[Balance]

Probably not a surprise to many, more expected.

SP action certainly suggests 'insider' action?

[couta1]

Analysts are going to have to have a good look at their numbers. No other way to describe it, this is a stunning upgrade. I'm buying more. Wait mate, remember buy the rumour, sell the fact, this stock always gets sold off after results day.

[sb9]

SP action certainly suggests 'insider' action?

I would say its more that the sp here doesn't wanna race ahead of itself before ASX opens. It'll be interesting to see what position the shorters are going to take.

Anyway, looking at the numbers they've done $256 mln sales for FY of 2017 until end Dec.

As per latest update they've done $388.5 mln, that's $132.5 mln for 3 months (Jan-Mar) and they're expecting FY sales to be approx. $525mln, which means they're expecting to do $136.5mln for last quarter of Apr-Jun.

I would say they'll do at least $150mln in the second half as they've just ramped production and catching up with demand based on augmented supply from Sylnait. I would say for FY they would land revenue of at least $540mln, and may be an outside chance to get to $550mln.

Enjoy the party :t_up::D

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/47c7ad84/a2-milk-posts-third-quarter-sales-that-beat-its-projection-lifts-annual-guidance.html

[JeremyALD]

Worst mistake of the year for me selling out of this stock at $2.95!! At least it's one of my sharetrader picks :( Well done to all who held on. I was definitely expecting a drop on the way up. Will be interesting to see how the ASX performs today.

[JeremyALD]

Wait mate, remember buy the rumour, sell the fact, this stock always gets sold off after results day.

Historically the NZX has driven the price up and then when the ASX opens the SP drops. I'll be waiting to see what happens.

[couta1]

Worst mistake of the year for me selling out of this stock at $2.95!! At least it's one of my sharetrader picks :( Well done to all who held on. I was definitely expecting a drop on the way up. Will be interesting to see how the ASX performs today. We all make these mistakes and will probably make them going forward, I've left some serious coin on the table with this stock but that's life, just look for other opportunities and wait for a drop in the SP.

[JeremyALD]

We all make these mistakes and will probably make them going forward, I've left some serious coin on the table with this stock but that's life, just look for other opportunities and wait for a drop in the SP.

I'm not too worried Couta. Had I not sold out and it dropped I would of been kicking myself. You make some 50/50 decisions in trading and only hindsight will tell you if you picked up the right side of the coin!! Will also keep an eye out for re-entry, but not keen at current prices.

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm not too worried Couta. Had I not sold out and it dropped I would of been kicking myself. You make some 50/50 decisions in trading and only hindsight will tell you if you picked up the right side of the coin!! Will also keep an eye out for re-entry, but not keen at current prices.

Same boat, sold 60% at $3.18 - $3.24 and will be interesting to see AU's reaction soon. Ah well, at least still have some.

Got to look at it that the glass is still half-full (of A2 milk!) ;)

[Leftfield]

YEEE HA!! :t_up:

Today's news confirms my long held faith in ATM. Great product, great company and great management.

Whether today's price is too high now is a question of your investment horizon. ATM have recently struggled to keep up with supply (a nice problem to have) however with SML's planned doubling of IF formula production scheduled for October 2017, the 2017/18 year is now looking very exciting.

Add to the supply improvements just some possible positives such as; a.) favourable australian court action, b.) new products, c.) improved marketing in NZ (I still struggle to buy A2 Milk in my area) d.) improved market penetration in USA and UK e.) further research findings and evidence.......etc etc.

Plenty of upside potential over the next few years IMHO (and hopefully further buying opportunities on any dips.)

DISC - Holder. DYOR.

[LegendOfRiot]

I ended up taking about 20% of my holding off the table at $3.05. Trying to take a more conservative approach from now on after having too much temptation to hold on forever with stocks I've had previously.

[sb9]

YEEE HA!! :t_up:

Today's news confirms my long held faith in ATM. Great product, great company and great management.

Whether today's price is too high now is a question of your investment horizon. ATM have recently struggled to keep up with supply (a nice problem to have) however with SML's planned doubling of IF formula production scheduled for October 2017, the 2017/18 year is now looking very exciting.

Add to the supply improvements just some possible positives such as; a.) favourable australian court action, b.) new products, c.) improved marketing in NZ (I still struggle to buy A2 Milk in my area) d.) improved market penetration in USA and UK e.) further research findings and evidence.......etc etc.

Plenty of upside potential over the next few years IMHO (and hopefully further buying opportunities on any dips.)

DISC - Holder. DYOR.

So very true lf, a good stock can only become a great stock by going through many hurdles the market throws at it and keep overcoming one step at a time. And at each of those step, stock gets re-rated to a new higher level.

I'm not in a hurry to take any profits anytime soon, this has got far too many legs to edge higher. May not happen overnight but in the long term. Without up ramping I can confidently say that this time next year we will see sp with $4 handle.

[silu]

Worst mistake of the year for me selling out of this stock at $2.95!! At least it's one of my sharetrader picks :( Well done to all who held on. I was definitely expecting a drop on the way up. Will be interesting to see how the ASX performs today.

I'm opening an old wound just to make you feel better. Bought at 50c. Sold 1/3 at $1.15 and 1/3 at $1.60. Still holding on with the rest.

[Beagle]

YEEE HA!! :t_up:

Today's news confirms my long held faith in ATM. Great product, great company and great management.

Whether today's price is too high now is a question of your investment horizon. ATM have recently struggled to keep up with supply (a nice problem to have) however with SML's planned doubling of IF formula production scheduled for October 2017, the 2017/18 year is now looking very exciting.

Add to the supply improvements just some possible positives such as; a.) favourable australian court action, b.) new products, c.) improved marketing in NZ (I still struggle to buy A2 Milk in my area) d.) improved market penetration in USA and UK e.) further research findings and evidence.......etc etc.

Plenty of upside potential over the next few years IMHO (and hopefully further buying opportunities on any dips.)

DISC - Holder. DYOR.

Good post mate, agree 100%. Happy holder.

[JeremyALD]

I'm opening an old wound just to make you feel better. Bought at 50c. Sold 1/3 at $1.15 and 1/3 at $1.60. Still holding on with the rest.

Thanks Silu. You still made over 100% though which is incredible! Don't think I made that much on my sell lol, but was still up so can't complain :) lesson for me is probably not to sell everything on the way up and adopt a similar strategy!

[Leftfield]

Thanks Silu. You still made over 100% though which is incredible! Don't think I made that much on my sell lol, but was still up so can't complain :) lesson for me is probably not to sell everything on the way up and adopt a similar strategy!

Don't beat yourselves up Jeremy and Silu. I was beating myself up for selling way too early in the TIL saga, yet it is now back to levels where I sold out.

Every twist of the market is a learning opportunity.

So I thought I would share my experiences in ATM. I'm an advocate of long term holding, but as I look back on my ATM records, I realise that I have purchased/sold ATM in over 22 transactions since my first purchase in July 2014.

I started nibbling (my favourite way of purchasing a new stock) in July 2014, purchasing 3k shares at $0.67. Since that time my cheapest purchases were in March 2015 when I got a large chunk at 50c. and my most expensive purchase was recently at $2.81.


Over the years, I have always kept some skin in the ATM game, however at one stage in Dec 2015 I sold down half shares which I considered ‘toppy’ at $2.46, but surprise, surprise about 4 weeks later in Jan 2016 I purchased a heap more at $1.74 ( a gain of 72c per share!)

At another stage I sold a heap of shares because I was nervous about the state of the total market e.g. the Sept 2015 USSR incursions in Ukraine, downing of a passenger Jet along with bearish sentiments in the market at the time, (crikey there were even warnings of a biblical Shemitah cycle crisis!)

Overall my average holding cost today is 57c and ATM has grown to over 40% of my portfolio.

I remain optimistic for this share and see exciting prospects over the next 2 to 3 years, however my learning is never to be complacent, and always be prepared to sell down (to lock in gains), and always keep some skin in the game (while you have faith in the company.)

[see weed]

I'm opening an old wound just to make you feel better. Bought at 50c. Sold 1/3 at $1.15 and 1/3 at $1.60. Still holding on with the rest.
LOL, Just had a look under one of my old scabs and found the most I had at any one time was 357,000 at about 50c to 60c :).

[hardt]

Best performer I could ever hope for and it's 35% of my portfolio...I have been accumulating since I have come across a few of the Aussie forums with individuals posting useful information on Chinese sales/Aztec data etc... this trading update was no surprise to a lot of holders.

A2M are known for conservative forecasts and their guidance upgrades leading into the FY reports.

Mark my un-influential words "They are going to exceed $525M revenue FY2017".

FY2017 - Synlait IF production meets A2M demand [ no more empty shelves and 2 tins per customer limit ]

FY2018 - introduction of their adult nutrition range and reaching critical mass in the states.

Only uncertainty - Lion court case and CFDA approval.

Going mighty long on this one.

[Bjauck]

A2 trading update reported by the Financial Times of London:
a2 Milk rises on increased Chinese demand for infant formula
https://www.ft.com/content/ef0c8fdf-715a-3c59-bcf0-6ab25c04f5db

[Lease]

Some Bad News from China


14 batches of imported dairy unqualified New Zealand A2, Switzerland Helda products


Date: 2017-04-25 Source: China Network Views: 357


AQSIQ website yesterday announced in March 2017 not access to food cosmetics information. China Net Finance reporter found that a total of 14 batches of unqualified imported dairy products are not allowed to access, involving New Zealand A2 and Switzerland Helda and other well-known milk prices.The report shows that a batch of "A2 milk powder" is produced by New Zealand's THE A2 MILK COMPANY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD., Which is an import and export trade limited company, which is 1800 kg.1 batch of "Si Bao Zhi infant formula" and a batch of "Si Bao You infant formula" by the Swiss manufacturer HOCHDORF Swiss Nutrition Ltd. production, the importer for the Bao Ningjian commerce (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., weight Each 960 kilograms.The three batches of milk powder didn't provide a certificate or proof of compliance materials, in Inner Mongolia and Shenzhen, the port has been returned for processing.

[LegendOfRiot]

Must be a subscriber to read, but http://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-company-appears-poised-for-an-earnings-upgrade-20170425-gvrq2q has the quote:


One of a2's biggest investors brushed off any stock issues and believes it could be a takeover target as large multinationals look for global growth. Both Nestle and Danone have articulated strategies to grow in Asia and beyond by acquiring brands that move them towards the health and wellness categories.

[Bjauck]

Some Bad News from China...
I did not really understand this article. However is this bad news for the importer, Bao Ningjian commerce (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., rather than A2?

[Lease]

I did not really understand this article. However is this bad news for the importer, Bao Ningjian commerce (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., rather than A2?

The original article is in Chinese character and I have used google to translate into English. You are right it is the importer's problem not A2, but Chinese medias have used it to attack foreign dairy products. The Chinese government intends to support local dairy companies so any minor issues can give them chance to attack.

[sb9]

The original article is in Chinese character and I have used google to translate into English. You are right it is the importer's problem not A2, but Chinese medias have used it to attack foreign dairy products. The Chinese government intends to support local dairy companies so any minor issues can give them chance to attack.

Just a word of caution and advice. be careful in future with Google translation as the original content can be interpreted to a totally different meaning.

And in this case, it may have influenced some people's trading decisions in a hurry.

Thanks for clarifying anyway.

[TideMan]

Just a word of caution and advice. be careful in future with Google translation as the original content can be interpreted to a totally different meaning.


Yes, indeed. Have a look at this: https://www.truthorfiction.com/chinese-hotel-brochure/

[Lease]

Just a word of caution and advice. be careful in future with Google translation as the original content can be interpreted to a totally different meaning.

And in this case, it may have influenced some people's trading decisions in a hurry.

Thanks for clarifying anyway.

Google has huge room to improve its translation function.

[Bjauck]

Yes, indeed. Have a look at this: https://www.truthorfiction.com/chinese-hotel-brochure/ LOL...I think this may be from the Benny Hill School of Comic Writing.

[Leftfield]

My v rough calculations at an appropriate SP following this update.

As at thee 15 Feb 17 Market update ATM reported it achieved NPAT of 39.4 mill. At that time I say a fair value SP at around $2.80.

Now that full year 2017 sales are likely to double the first half we can probably expect full year NPAT ranging between $80 to $100 mill which in turn equals a EPS of 11c to 14c.

On this basis at a P/E of 30 (fair for a growth company IMHO) a fair SP would seem to be in the range $3.30 to $4.11

I'm no accountant so welcome others input.

DYOR - Holding and happy.

[hardt]

Increased marketing costs could possibly offset your forecast NPAT...

Luckily the growth is almost entirely their Infant Formula [ highest margin product they produce ]

Expect to see ratings upgraded in the coming weeks, maybe the idiots at Citi will jump on board this time...

[whatsup]

$3.58 new high (daily now ! )

[hardt]

Had about 2m shorted on A2M.ASX yesterday [ highest number in almost a month ] - a retrace back into the 320's is likely

[couta1]

Had about 2m shorted on A2M.ASX yesterday [ highest number in almost a month ] - a retrace back into the 320's is likely A little bit of air coming out of the bubble, no surprises there, a very scary stock to own if you bought at the top.

[JeremyALD]

A little bit of air coming out of the bubble, no surprises there, a very scary stock to own if you bought at the top.

I'll be staying away unless it gets back to $3. It had to pull back at some point. The run has been crazy and the longest upward since I've been following ATM. Usually there's plenty of bumps along the way.

[hardt]

A hell of a lot of shorts were covered Wed/Thurs... feel bad for the retail investors with FOMO wanting to join the party.

This guidance upgrade was already factored into the SP for a lot of investors.

There is value here in the low 300s... Geoff Babidge runs a pretty tight ship that consistently outperforms [ or under forecasts ] I can never tell.

[Beagle]

A little bit of air coming out of the bubble, no surprises there, a very scary stock to own if you bought at the top.

Buying AIR and these "frothy" things lately too. Can I have two side orders of free seat belts to go with that :D
Long term the current price for both is good value in my opinion. Free bumps and turbulence along the way guaranteed !

[couta1]

Buying AIR and these "frothy" things lately too. Can I have two side orders of free seat belts to go with that :D
Long term the current price for both is good value in my opinion. Free bumps and turbulence along the way guaranteed ! Mate I'm only buying retirement stocks and power companies currently(That's includes Ryman, which I know you think is overvalued but we will agree to disagree on that one) Most of the other stocks are too frothy and are in for a good winter pruning IMO.:D

[Beagle]

Yeap I hear ya about the power companies mate. Good discussion yesterday about people always needing power no matter else happens.

[hardt]

Mate I'm only buying retirement stocks and power companies currently(That's includes Ryman, which I know you think is overvalued but we will agree to disagree on that one) Most of the other stocks are too frothy and are in for a good winter pruning IMO.:D

Nothing wrong with the boring ones, but surely you want one or two growth stocks in your portfolio right?


Taking a look at the A2MC and why some people aren't looking to invest... it's a volatile stock, I'll give you that and with a heavy reliance on the Chinese market for growth I wouldn't blame you for shunning it for a lower risk/reward equity.

The market sees China as a bit of black sheep that, on occasion, swallows diamonds.
China can, at any point, do a 180° turn and end a foreign businesses prospects, not to mention the seemingly endless corrupt government officials colluding with domestic companies.

This uncertainty brings immense opportunity to investors who seek a discount to the terminal and enterprise value of a company.

As a whole, management has proven to shareholders that their capital is being put to good use, glancing at the reports, we see the basic fundamental indicators of this company already shining bright and indications of the metrics improving over time.

ATM has proven to be quite rewarding in my short time holding [ 6 months ] and with no slowdown in sight, I see value in holding long for the next 5-10 years.

I believe they have under forecast revenue at 525M, waiting till August report to feel vindicated.
Pharmacy sales data below - reflect about 20% of formula sales.

8821

[dobby41]

Yeap I hear ya about the power companies mate. Good discussion yesterday about people always needing power no matter else happens.

Even if they need lots less with LED lights and things.
Though maybe greater air con use will counter that.
Or a big sweater and some rugs?

[sb9]

http://a2nutrition.cn/a2_pc/index.html

Bit of an update on the recent media report from A2 China website...and translation of which is as follows:

*****
A solemn statement about media untrue or misleading reports

A2 Milk Company noticed some recent social or mass media for A2 to carry out untrue or misleading reports and dissemination, to this a2 Milk company, to the beginning of milk Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. solemnly declare:

1. The so-called "1 batches of nominal A2 milk products" mentioned in the media report, the Division I and the AQSIQ confirmed that the batch of products are labelled "A2 Full Milk powder", not in part of the report mentioned or implied A2 infant formula. The batch product is imported from Chifeng Australian import and Export Trade Co., Ltd. I
n response to the batch of powdered milk, the aforementioned company "failed to provide official health certificate in Exporting Countries", and the company is not A2 Chinese official business Cooperation unit.
2. According to the AQSIQ issued information, the batch of powdered milk was returned because of "failure to provide official health certificate in exporting Countries".
At the same time, except for the importer's failure to provide the corresponding certificate as requested, there is no information about the powdered milk itself.
3. Recent media mention that A2 infant milk powder for "OEM", the actual situation for A2 Milk company is the infant milk powder production plant of the main investors.
A2 Milk Company has been the product quality and safety in the first place. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and a2 milk companies, A2 once again solemnly declare, and retain the right to further take legal action to trace the false or misleading media coverage.

First Milk Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
April 28, 2017

[Leftfield]

News of ATM's selection of a leading advertising agency to promote its USA marketing thrust.
Read it here (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170428005517/en/a2-Milk-Company™-Selects-Escape-Pod-Lead)