ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/300453

The announcement from Synlait today gives some hints around future prospects of growth for A2 in an indirect way...in particular the following statement...

“We’re anticipating a rapid pace of growth in the coming years as we pursue profitable new opportunities to make the most from milk. This requires us to continue developing our team and people at all levels,” said John Penno, Managing Director and CEO.

[hardt]

It is now set to launch a variation of its flagship a2 Platinum infant formula product that will be pitched at children up to six rather just babies in the first quarter of the 2018 financial year. “This will meet the growing market demand for products for younger children. We have experienced significant growth already in this market segment. And the brand proposition resonates very well with older children as well as infants and babies.’’



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...a/news-story/946bb603802a68be557f09d7a93baffe (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/a2-to-launch-powdered-milk-products-in-china/news-story/946bb603802a68be557f09d7a93baffe)

A2 to launch powdered milk products in China
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ba17f030c9d0853a541986e52a6f362b?width=650 (http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ba17f030c9d0853a541986e52a6f362b?width=1024)
A2 will roll out a new adult skim milk powder product through e-commerce channels into China

https://i1.wp.com/pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/8a8c9c82842130e7152611b5bb6495d6/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/vertical/author/widget&td_bio=falseThe a2 Milk Company will launch new product lines in the booming milk powder space to capitalise on soaring demand for its products in China as its share price climbs to record levels.

In the coming weeks a2 will roll out a new adult skim milk powder product for sale in Australia and through cross border e-commerce channels into China.

A2 currently only offers a whole milk powder product and Australia and New Zealand chief executive Peter Nathan said the milk powder segment was set to become a significant opportunity for the company.

“We are of the view that bringing the benefits of a2 Milk to Chinese consumers is strategically far easier using the powder form than the fresh milk form. It is far more in tune with logistics and consumer dynamics,’’ Mr Nathan said.

“One big benefit is transportation, milk powder is far more transportable via the diagou and CBE paths. Quite often Chinese consumers also prefer the taste of powdered milk as opposed to fresh milk.’’

A2 last week upgraded its annual revenue forecasts due to soaring demand for its infant formula products in China.

It is now set to launch a variation of its flagship a2 Platinum infant formula product that will be pitched at children up to six rather just babies in the first quarter of the 2018 financial year. “This will meet the growing market demand for products for younger children. We have experienced significant growth already in this market segment. And the brand proposition resonates very well with older children as well as infants and babies.’’

[Leftfield]

Interest in A2M from this article by FastCompany. (https://www.fastcompany.com/40411479/this-milk-company-is-willing-to-bet-youre-not-actually-lactose-intolerant) as well as hints of products and progress in the US. Early days in this market 'tho.

(PS I'm taking a self imposed break from this forum, so no more posts for me for a while..... good luck to all holders....DYOR)

"Waltrip sees a2 Milk not just as a milk company but as something much bigger: expanding to capture more of the shopping cart, through lines of yogurt, cheese, cream, and ice cream. Meanwhile, the company already has a line of infant formula that’s doing well overseas. “Look, we started as a milk company and that was our foundation, but what we really are is a dairy nutrition company.”

[forest]

For Tax purpose I was wondering is ATM a NZ or Aus company?

[peat]

For Tax purpose I was wondering is ATM a NZ or Aus company?

My guess is that it depends on where your shareholding is domiciled.

[BlackPeter]

My guess is that it depends on where your shareholding is domiciled.

Not quite. It does make absolutely no difference for the tax status, whether the shares are bought (and hold) on the ASX or the NZX. There are a number of NZ companies which trade their shares on the ASX (most dual listing: SNZ, but some are just on the ASX - e.g. BRL), as well as a number of Australian or other overseas companies who happen to trade their shares on the NZX (ANZ being one of them, but TEM springs to mind).

However - given that ATM reports in NZD would I assume that they are a NZ company (even if they are quite coy about their premises ...).

[forest]

Registered
office
c/o Simpson Grierson
Level 27
88 Shortland Street
Auckland 1010
New Zealand

Level 11
80 Mount Street
North Sydney NSW 2060
Australia
Telephone: +61 2 9697 7000

Still wondering if ATM is NZ or Australian for tax purpose?
Can any of the accountants here on the forum shed some light?

[hardt]

A2M.ASX finished the day up at 3.17AUD = 345NZD

Due to the announcement this evening about the establishment of an emerging market division, welcomed expansion into SE asia.

[sb9]

A2M.ASX finished the day up at 3.17AUD = 345NZD

Due to the announcement this evening about the establishment of an emerging market division, welcomed expansion into SE asia.

Yes, here is the announcement

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300535

So sure seem to have good pulse on where the future growth lies in.

[777]

May be the timing of the announcement indicates it is an Australian company. Put out after the NZ market is closed and before the close of the Australian one. Perhaps Turnbull wanted it that way.

[Yoda]

I have suggested they look at non homogenised milk.
I would buy it if it was, lots of medical reasons not to drink homogenised, mainly fat molecules passing into the blood ,
gold standard for me would be A2/ hon- h / and organic .

hold

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300591

ATM's investor presentation from y'day at Macquarie Securities conf in Sydney.

Following on the presentation article in NBR (behind paywall) states that they're targeting to grab 10% of Chinese IF market, which is estimated to be worth $18 Billion, yes billion. Imagine what that would mean for revenue and profits.

Historically they've been very coy about setting targets but this is first time they've outlined their ambitious goal and also a timeline on submission of CFDA documents for registration process by end May (this month).

Their story gets better and better.....:)

[bucko]

I just loved the half on half comparison chart they have in there, strengthens the case that they have under estimated 2H earnings IMO

[hardt]

Great article today in NBR...

A2 Milk targets 10% of China’s infant formula market
JENNY RUTHTHURSDAY MAY 4, 2017 1 (https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-targets-10-chinas-infant-formula-market-jr-p-202557#comment-position)

A2 Milk wants to raise its share of China’s infant formula market to 5% and then in the long term to about 10%.
That was a key takeaway by attendees at the company’s presentation to Macquarie’s annual conference in Australia.
The company has previously been cautious about publicly announcing targets, so such openness about its ambitions is a sign of its increasing confidence.
The news from the conference sparked a 10c, or 3%, rise in its shares $3.46 yesterday. Although that’s down from the $3.58 high reached last week, the shares are more than 62% higher than they were at the beginning of this year.
The company says it has about 3% of the market in China and has outlined some of its plans for expanding and building brand awareness.
The A2 Platimum infant formula has lifted its market share in Australia from 25% in January to about 33% in the first week of April, based on Aztec data for grocery and pharmacy outlets.
Much of the infant formula sold in Australia is bought for the grey market or Daigou trade in China.
Matthew Ryland at Greencape Capital, which owns just under 8% of A2 Milk, says he is pleased to see the company is well advanced in adapting to Chinese regulatory changes.
“A2 said it would be submitting its application by the end of this month – that’s the first time it has put a date on that,” Mr Ryland says.
The lift in market share has come despite the brand being out of stock for much of the time. “It is overcoming what looks like empty shelves – there’s plenty of photos circulating showing that.”
The company reiterated what it said in its trading update last week that it has been working with Synlait Milk, which manufactures its infant formula, to increase production and overcome the stocking issues.
A2 bought an 8.2% stake in Synlait in early March.
The company also provided updates on its progress in other markets.
British progress
In Britain, where it has stumbled in the past, the company says its growth in fresh milk sales has exceeded its plan by 60% and that it has gained additional ranging in Sainsbury’s supermarkets.
“That’s been a market where it’s had it’s ups and downs,” Mr Ryland says.
“A2 had a re-think about how it approaches it. Some of the changes it has made seem to be gaining traction,” he says.
“That’s really important. It’s a proof point it is quite a dynamic management team. When things don’t pan out the way they would’ve expected, they reassess, make some changes and then execute.
“The UK appears to be going down the path where A2 is demonstrating that well.”
In the 2015 financial year, A2 changed its product sizes in the British market, downsizing its fresh milk from two-litre to one-litre packs, and repositioned it into the premium speciality milk segment, away from the mainstream dairy positioning it had previously occupied.
It also began work on broadening its product portfolio in Britain. The company announced in February that it broke even in Britain for the first time in the six months ended December.
In the United States, the company’s launch appears to be more advanced than previously thought.
The company says it has expanded into the south-east of the country through the Florida-based Publix chain of supermarkets with its products now in 1100 stores primarily in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas from March this year.
The company says it has increased its marketing spend in the current six months and has a new advertising campaign underway involving TV, radio, digital and social media channels.
Mr Ryland says it hasn’t been plain sailing for A2 in America. It had to replace its US chief executive after the first one became ill – and “it’s had its stop/start moments.
“They seem to be good at reassessing and then coming up with an appropriate strategy and then executing on it,” he says.
The company is also planning to expand in South East Asia and has appointed Michael Bracka, who has previously worked for companies such as Mars, Kellogg, Manassen Foods and Freedom Foods which was once A2’s major shareholder, as its business development manager for emerging markets.

[hardt]

I just loved the half on half comparison chart they have in there, strengthens the case that they have under estimated 2H earnings IMO

They have always under forecast, hard to disappoint the market when you provide it with moderate expectations...

[Snow Leopard]

On my almost annual trip to Little Blighty on the Down (UK) and my informal survey suggests that A2 Milk has not made much headway since last year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Informal survey time again.
A2 have smaller cartoons and less shelf space in the supermarkets
But it is still on the shelves.

ATM Share price chart is a thing of great beauty.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bjauck]

Informal survey time again.
A2 have smaller cartoons and less shelf space in the supermarkets
But it is still on the shelves.

ATM Share price chart is a thing of great beauty.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger With the costs of their government's decision to quit their major trading market (the EU single market) yet to be fully reflected in consumers' purchasing power, going forward, I am imagining there could be a shrinking British market for premium brands such as A2...

Brexit latest: Consumer confidence declines in April
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-consumer-confidence-declines-in-april-a7705046.html

[hardt]

With the costs of their government's decision to quit their major trading market (the EU single market) yet to be fully reflected in consumers' purchasing power, going forward, I am imagining there could be a shrinking British market for premium brands such as A2...

Brexit latest: Consumer confidence declines in April
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-consumer-confidence-declines-in-april-a7705046.html


UK and USA contribute less than 5% of total group sales combined... if we ceased operations of these two segments, A2MC earnings would increase.

[sb9]

We're entering some uncharted territories price wise. Sure those that attended that Macquarie presentation see great value in this company.

[couta1]

We're entering some uncharted territories price wise. Sure those that attended that Macquarie presentation see great value in this company.With a PE of around 44,ask yourself, would you buy at current prices? Has run ahead of its fundamental value IMO.As KW mentioned on the other forum, don't buy the rumour but rather the fact after the next results announcement at a much cheaper price than the current one.

[King1212]

With a PE of around 44,ask yourself, would you buy at current prices? Has run ahead of its fundamental value IMO.As KW mentioned on the other forum, don't buy the rumour but rather the fact after the next results announcement at a much cheaper price than the current one.

couta1, are u saying the current price is overvalued?

[sb9]

With a PE of around 44,ask yourself, would you buy at current prices? Has run ahead of its fundamental value IMO.As KW mentioned on the other forum, don't buy the rumour but rather the fact after the next results announcement at a much cheaper price than the current one.

Well hence the reason I bought much much earlier :p than those buying currently. For you and me it might be overvalued, however those currently buying may have different opinion and like to be get onboard.

If things go as planned and expected for A2, in 6 months time current price might look quite cheap. Anyway, am happy to watch from sidelines and not prepared to let any of mine go anytime soon.

[Beagle]

With a PE of around 44,ask yourself, would you buy at current prices? Has run ahead of its fundamental value IMO.As KW mentioned on the other forum, don't buy the rumour but rather the fact after the next results announcement at a much cheaper price than the current one.

Its a growth company mate. They're spending $35m launching into the U.S. market which they will expense this year. The market is already looking well past the current year PE to forecast 2018 PE of ~ 26...which seems very reasonable to me considering they recently quadrupled their interim profit. Lot of potential here. From a TA perspective, there's nothing but blue sky ahead.
Letting my profit run on this one..and run and run until (if ever), it breaks down through the 100 day MA.
Average brokers forecast according to 4traders is for EPS of 10.3 cps for 2017, 14.0 cps for 2018 and 18.0 cps for 2019.

[couta1]

Its a growth company mate. They're spending $35m launching into the U.S. market which they will expense this year. The market is already looking well past the current year PE to forecast 2018 PE of ~ 26...which seems very reasonable to me considering they recently quadrupled their interim profit. Lot of potential here. From a TA perspective, there's nothing but blue sky ahead.
Letting my profit run on this one..and run and run until (if ever), it breaks down through the 100 day MA.
Average brokers forecast according to 4traders is for EPS of 10.3 cps for 2017, 14.0 cps for 2018 and 18.0 cps for 2019. Hey it's a great company which I've made money out of(Only about a third of what I could have admittedly) I just think there will be a better re entry price. PS-No where to hide with the current PE in any market correction if you paid much over $3 IMO.PPS-Sb9, lots of people wanted to get on board XRO too, when it was over $40, remember that great wall of money?

[hardt]

Hey it's a great company which I've made money out of(Only about a third of what I could have admittedly) I just think there will be a better re entry price. PS-No where to hide with the current PE in any market correction if you paid much over $3 IMO.PPS-Sb9, lots of people wanted to get on board XRO too, when it was over $40, remember that great wall of money?

It is all about intrinsic value, managements performance, ROE/ROA/ROIC and debt, earnings growth and future dividends - it is clear to see why the market is prepared to place a premium on the trailing p/e as they do with stocks considered to be on the top shelf.

The Chinese household equates for just under half the world's total consumption of infant formula

Xero is an overvalued tech stock that does not turn a profit... two very different stories.

[couta1]

It is all about intrinsic value, managements performance, ROE/ROA/ROIC and debt, earnings growth and future dividends - it is clear to see why the market is prepared to place a premium on the trailing p/e as they do with stocks considered to be on the top shelf.

The Chinese household equates for just under half the world's total consumption of infant formula

Xero is an overvalued tech stock that does not turn a profit... two very different stories. XRO is indeed a very different story, yet the thing they both have in common is a sentiment driven share price, take a look at the retirement sector of late, regardless of the fact that the sector has strong tailwinds and excellent long term prospects, sentiment has driven the prices down of late. XRO was overvalued but seems around fair value these days, what is a fair value for A2 is yet to be determined, time will tell.

[hardt]

XRO is indeed a very different story, yet the thing they both have in common is a sentiment driven share price, take a look at the retirement sector of late, regardless of the fact that the sector has strong tailwinds and excellent long term prospects, sentiment has driven the prices down of late. XRO was overvalued but seems around fair value these days, what is a fair value for A2 is yet to be determined, time will tell.

If a2 milk stops growing tomorrow, maintains its 2.5% market share in China [ current target is 5% market share by 2022 ]- we will still see immense earnings growth over the next 5-10 years.

19% growth in China
Asia is the fastest growing region in infant nutrition, at an annual rate of some 19%, largely driven by China. In China, improved living standards amongst the growing middle class and increased health awareness are stimulating purchases. Demand for imported products, regarded as safer since the recent melamine scandal, has been pushing prices up. Currently there are 160 million children aged between 3 and 13 years old in China. A 2012 baby boom in the year of the dragon, together with China’s one child policy, means demand for premium products will continue to grow in the coming years. In China, the number of mothers who breastfeed exclusively for 6 months is reported to be less than 30%. This is partly because baby formula is thought to be healthier and help babies bulk up – which is important in Chinese culture with many people believing that a large baby is a healthy baby.

Retirement sector is growing steadily and unless we see a plague, the growth wont stop! - but it does not offer a huge platform for exponential growth as the world offers to consumer goods..

[sb9]

It is all about intrinsic value, managements performance, ROE/ROA/ROIC and debt, earnings growth and future dividends - it is clear to see why the market is prepared to place a premium on the trailing p/e as they do with stocks considered to be on the top shelf.

The Chinese household equates for just under half the world's total consumption of infant formula

Xero is an overvalued tech stock that does not turn a profit... two very different stories.

Couldn't agree more on your comparison, right on the money.

Couta1- they're two very very very different companies and its flawed right along to compare ATM alongside Xero even be it on trading sentiment which in itself is incorrect too.

The price movement on Xero was quite rapid and quick fire when compared to the price movement of ATM. While Xero went up like 5-10% everyday during that infamous price rise to over $40 it happened on no news but purely on speculation and hype.

Contrast that with ATM they've just upgraded their forecast, Chinese cross border e-com rules relaxed recently, they've appointed new business head for SE Asian region to further their growth in that part, did their presentation at Macquarie Conf to potential investors with deep pockets, outlined their ambition to grab 5% of Chinese IF market and new product launches to happen soon. And this list go on and on. Not to say how many times in the last 3 years or so they've beaten their own forecast, something any corporate would be proud of.

Finally on the fundamentals and financials, wouldn't even worth starting a debate on that. One is hugely profitable and keeps getting more profitable and the other after more than a decade in business still to breakeven on cash flow let alone make a dollar profit.

Think I leave it there for now.

[Beagle]

Very well said sb9 and hardt.

[Ninefingers]

After holding since 60c I've been selling some small packets recently to fund on going house renovations, keeping a majority of the holding though...this just keeps rocketing on up.

[stef]

After holding since 60c I've been selling some small packets recently to fund on going house renovations, keeping a majority of the holding though...this just keeps rocketing on up.

With new buyers coming in,is starting to look like the BAL chart 2yrs ago.

[hardt]

Looks like a large pullback on the ASX in the last hour or so of trading today.

Easy to trigger those trailing stops...

[hardt]

Every single time Babidge sells some shares the market throws a hissyfit... Even after the day today it is a green week for ATM.

[777]

I sold too at yesterdays prices. Back in next week sometime.

[couta1]

I sold too at yesterdays prices. Back in next week sometime. Buying today, a Director selling shares means nothing with this company and a good chance to buy.

[JeremyALD]

Buying today, a Director selling shares means nothing with this company and a good chance to buy.

Buying back at still pretty high levels Couta? I'm keeping a close watch of when to buy back in....

[hardt]

A lot of shorts were closed out on Friday, would expect to see a good finish this week...

I would top up at 335-340 if A2M/ATM wasn't already 30% of my portfolio.

[couta1]

Buying back at still pretty high levels Couta? I'm keeping a close watch of when to buy back in.... Hard to say how much more it will drift down with such positive sentiment toward the stock, happy to chase the price down a bit if need be. Babidge selling shares means diddly squat with this stock, I learnt that the hard way by selling a large parcel for a loss, last time he sold shares.

[JeremyALD]

Hard to say how much more it will drift down with such positive sentiment toward the stock, happy to chase the price down a bit if need be. Babidge selling shares means diddly squat with this stock, I learnt that the hard way by selling a large parcel for a loss, last time he sold shares.

Thanks Couta. I might join you but I'll see how this week goes before buying back in :)

[Beagle]

Buying today, a Director selling shares means nothing with this company and a good chance to buy.
Welcome back mate. Hold for long term growth..be disciplined and show heaps of patience this time. Hold for 5 years. Day to day turbulence will mean nothing when viewed in the context of where the shares will be in five years.

[couta1]

Welcome back mate. Hold for long term growth..be disciplined and show heaps of patience this time. Hold for 5 years. Day to day turbulence will mean nothing when viewed in the context of where the shares will be in five years. Cheers Roger, 5 yrs with a type A personality is a big ask, my eyes are always watching macro events and what impact they may have.

[Gunny]

For the first time in ages the three Countdowns in my area (Wellington South) were out of A2 milk the last few days, maybe everyone gave as a present for mothers day.

Gunny

[hardt]

For the first time in ages the three Countdowns in my area (Wellington South) were out of A2 milk the last few days, maybe everyone gave as a present for mothers day.

Gunny

I have seen the same Chinese man in his early 20's leaving the countdown in my area with trolleys full of A2, Aptamil and Bellamy's formula... I love seeing daigou in the wild - what a sight!

[Beagle]

Cheers Roger, 5 yrs with a type A personality is a big ask, my eyes are always watching macro events and what impact they may have.

You can teach an old dog new tricks...it just takes longer :)

[stef]

I have seen the same Chinese man in his early 20's leaving the countdown in my area with trolleys full of A2, Aptamil and Bellamy's formula... I love seeing daigou in the wild - what a sight!

Where? never seen A2 IF for sale in local shop.

[Bjauck]

...I love seeing daigou in the wild - what a sight! Was David Attenborough following with a camera crew?

[sb9]

Buying today, a Director selling shares means nothing with this company and a good chance to buy.

Good on ya couta1..

If you notice previous instances when Geoff sold his shares, it usually followed by a positive announcement of some sort and sp eventually moves higher up than previous level.

He generally sells much before that positive news to be out as if he sells later it'll account for insider trading having access to material information. My take is that there'll some positive news soon to follow in few weeks time, may be by end of month.

Greenscape and Challenger locked in some profits by reducing their stake and now they can buy back again cheaper.

[couta1]

Well that was an Adrenaline filled chase down, wondered when it was going to stop dropping, started buying a bit early yesterday so have ended up with a $3.46 average and out of dosh to buy any more. That's the way it rolls with this stock.

[JoeGrogan]

Well that was an Adrenaline filled chase down, wondered when it was going to stop dropping, started buying a bit early yesterday so have ended up with a $3.46 average and out of dosh to buy any more. That's the way it rolls with this stock.

She's a wild one, i had an order in at $3.46 that got filled this morning while i was at work. Thinking of averaging down some more if it hits $3.36 :eek2:

[couta1]

She's a wild one, i had an order in at $3.46 that got filled this morning while i was at work. Thinking of averaging down some more if it hits $3.36 :eek2: My buy in price range was $3.37-$3.56 so got none at $3.36. You never know when it's going to go just as hard the other way, that's why I just chase it down and let the chips fall where they may. Price you sell at is more important (Speaking from many hard lessons learned)

[couta1]

Swung just as hard the other way now, no point trying to pick the bottom with this baby.:cool:

[sb9]

Swung just as hard the other way now, no point trying to pick the bottom with this baby.:cool:

A very good trading day for a trader if they're on the right track...

[hardt]

Boom, out of sheer luck i picked some up at 337!

40% of my portfolio is ATM ;) - burn incoming

[couta1]

Boom, out of sheer luck i picked some up at 337!

40% of my portfolio is ATM ;) - burn incoming 40% in one stock, now your talking my language, I've only got 27% in ATM currently and the same in SUM, both headed off by 46% in IFT. PS-My all time record is the 95% that I had in SPK before the last divvy.:eek2:

[hardt]

40% in one stock, now your talking my language, I've only got 27% in ATM currently and the same in SUM, both headed off by 46% in IFT. PS-My all time record is the 95% that I had in SPK before the last divvy.:eek2:

20% FPH, 15 ABA, 10 TGH, 5 MPG, 10 THL

I end up making far better choices on the stocks I choose to go big on... why choose anything other than your best right?

But for MPG everything is going well, still have some faith in MPG.

Highest I have been is 70% in MFT.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/301244

Another worthy appointment albeit to the director board..

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/301307

Director buying on-market, putting money where it matters....

[RTFQ]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/301307

Director buying on-market, putting money where it matters....

Peanuts relative to what the Management have been selling. Herald today.

[sb9]

Looks like the sp is range bound at the moment, not much happening both price wise or volume wise. Taking a breather perhaps before another leg up soon...

[hardt]

Updated Pharmacy sales data, again, reflects 20% of all IF sales in Australia... we can assume a similar behaviour at the supermarket/online.

8860


8861

source: hotcopper user Profit76

Disc: 20% of my net worth in A2 ;)

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301863

Superb move...all in all FY18 is going to be absolutely gangbusters imo...Key points are:

- The facility will be infant formula capable, and will enable Synlait to substantially lift its blending and canning capacity.
- The Managing Director and CEO of Synlait, John Penno, says “this purchase will allow us to meet current demand, as well as provide some room to grow with our customers’ needs.”

[Leftfield]

https://nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301863

Superb move...all in all FY18 is going to be absolutely gangbusters imo...Key points are:

- The facility will be infant formula capable, and will enable Synlait to substantially lift its blending and canning capacity.
- The Managing Director and CEO of Synlait, John Penno, says “this purchase will allow us to meet current demand, as well as provide some room to grow with our customers’ needs.”

Agree. Great news for holders..... ATM and SML are a great partnership in the making and I'm continually impressed by the decisions management are making. Exciting times ahead.

[sb9]

Agree. Great news for holders..... ATM and SML are a great partnership in the making and I'm continually impressed by the decisions management are making. Exciting times ahead.

Yes, of course...have added bit more this morning, becoming bit too much in holdings ;)

[sb9]

One more thing their investment in SML has grown in capital value from $3.32 odd per share to $4.01 currently, more cream on top :t_up::D

[Leftfield]

One more thing their investment in SML has grown in capital value from $3.32 odd per share to $4.01 currently, more cream on top :t_up::D

Yep SML was a shrewd investment by ATM.....good on you buying more ATM today.
ATM now over 50% of my NZX portfolio so I'm already in a bit too deep and just taking a few deep breaths at the moment.... it'll be interesting to see how ASX reacts this aft.

[sb9]

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/synlait-purchases-strategic-blending-and-canning-assets/#more-1680

More on today's news from someone who know all about ATM from beginning, Keith Woodford.

Very good read...

[t.rexjr]

Westpac didn't stay long. Sold up a majority of their ATM and SML shares. Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding was only at the begining of the month...

[Leftfield]

Westpac didn't stay long. Sold up a majority of their ATM and SML shares. Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding was only at the begining of the month...

Westpac selling down shares across the board ..... not sure why....Aussie bank shares under pressure??

8873

[blobbles]

Westpac selling down shares across the board ..... not sure why....Aussie bank shares under pressure??

8873

Could be due to the "imminent property collapse" warning from the Aussie fund manager (Altair Asset Management) the other day who said he was basically winding up all property and fund investments and returning money to clients. Due to the markets being self viewing chaotic systems that are prone to such shocks, they might be hedging their bets and selling a percentage of their investments to ensure they are solvent if the property market collapses.

Or maybe they are just locking in profits...

[Sideshow Bob]

No wonder sales are booming if half right.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11866944

[t.rexjr]

No wonder sales are booming if half right.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11866944

Jeepers, anyone would think they weren't paying customers

[BlackPeter]

No wonder sales are booming if half right.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11866944

Sort of wondering why they not just increase their stock and happy to sell to them as much formula as they want? These guys are an invaluable part of our economy, they are paying the supermarkets margin, they are paying GST, they are paying NZ Post for all these parcels - and we are demonising them? They are heroes!

[Ggcc]

Sort of wondering why they not just increase their stock and happy to sell to them as much formula as they want? These guys are an invaluable part of our economy, they are paying the supermarkets margin, they are paying GST, they are paying NZ Post for all these parcels - and we are demonising them? They are heroes!
This is happening often and not just with milk products. It is big business also with fish. MAF is trying to get to the bottom of this by closing the loophole. I am not sure what the fish product was, but it fetched big prices on the Chinese market. I think that maybe certain taxes are not being collected along the way by our government or the Chinese government. This is possibly also the problem with milk products.

[BigBob]

Sort of wondering why they not just increase their stock and happy to sell to them as much formula as they want? These guys are an invaluable part of our economy, they are paying the supermarkets margin, they are paying GST, they are paying NZ Post for all these parcels - and we are demonising them? They are heroes!

Maybe if they operated in NZ.... It is a typical NZ Herald article sourced from Oz about Oz and only relevant to NZ because of the ATM connection....

[couta1]

Exchange rate working against the stock if buying on the NZX, around 12c difference from a month ago, add to that the trashing the ASX is currently getting means it's baton down the hatches at the moment. Disc-Bought more today, but now time to stop and wait. PS-Dollar parity would make my holding look ugly at current prices.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/302262

Great move..Peter Nathan now in charge of Asia Pacific Region (ANZ, China and other Asian markets). I'm picking he's being groomed to be the next CEO if and when Geoff decides to call it a day.

Very smart management move by a very smart company.

[Leftfield]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/302262

Great move..Peter Nathan now in charge of Asia Pacific Region (ANZ, China and other Asian markets). I'm picking he's being groomed to be the next CEO if and when Geoff decides to call it a day.

Very smart management move by a very smart company.

Agree.... I like it. Building on established expertise and pushing further. I note no update on the USA .... so can we assume business as usual there?

Looking forward to the next announcement which hopefully will be an earnings update!!???

[JoeGrogan]

Bought some at 332 last week and sold them for a wee gain on Friday. So couldn't resist buying more today at these levels. Not sure if this is the bottom though, could be some downward pressure from aussie.

[couta1]

Bought some at 332 last week and sold them for a wee gain on Friday. So couldn't resist buying more today at these levels. Not sure if this is the bottom though, could be some downward pressure from aussie. Good buying, I doubt either of us will be worried about the bottom when the SP hits $4.

[JoeGrogan]

Good buying, I doubt either of us will be worried about the bottom when the SP hits $4.

haha maybe $4 when they increase their forecast. Are you planning to hold this for long?

[couta1]

haha maybe $4 when they increase their forecast. Are you planning to hold this for long? Will hold until the next result, depending on how well it runs leading up to it.

[JoeGrogan]

Will hold until the next result, depending on how well it runs leading up to it.

Nice :t_up:

[sb9]

Agree.... I like it. Building on established expertise and pushing further. I note no update on the USA .... so can we assume business as usual there?

Looking forward to the next announcement which hopefully will be an earnings update!!???

My pick is if there're going to be an update/upgrade, it will be out either 3rd or last week of this month. By which time they would've a fair idea of sales numbers....here's hoping there'll be one :)

[Leftfield]

My pick is if there're going to be an update/upgrade, it will be out either 3rd or last week of this month. By which time they would've a fair idea of sales numbers....here's hoping there'll be one :)

Last year's update was around 15 June. This long term patient holder is being very patient at the moment.

The next 1 to 2 yrs are looking very exciting. Golly there's the Court case, new products, doubling of infant formula production, enhanced production facilities in Auck, smart investment in SML, new markets (Europe now mentioned) and more research to come, even talk of profits and dividends. Already a 5 bagger for me, and my tummy benefits every day as I drink A2 milk! :t_up:

[Leftfield]

Over in Hot Copper some interesting claims being made, quoting the latest from Prof Keith Woodward.......

"The a2 Platinum formula was moving into the number one position in Australia, with a 30 per cent market share. Most of the remaining product was exported to China.
"A2 is on a roll. I'm working on the issue all around the world and I can tell you, it's going to hurt [New Zealand's dairy industry," he said.
"We've got an opportunity - and it can still be an opportunity and not a risk - but New Zealand has to get on the road to converting its herds to A2."
"We are becoming a serious threat to the Dairy Industry Woodford warns. Growing international demand for A2 ...It's crazy NZ farmers aren't changing their cows to a2 as soon as possible."

[777]

Fonterra run the milking industry in NZ and therein lies the problem. I recall that that the head Honcho stated that the A2 protein was aa passing fad, or words to that affect.

Bought some more at opening this morning.

[couta1]

Bollinger Bands squeezing together, are we due for another run up? All will be revealed. Shame about the current exchange rate working against holders on the NZX.

[Joshuatree]

Heres the full article by the Prof who's been a strong advocate for A2 so bear that in mind.
Growing demand for A2 milk a serious threat to dairy industry ... (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/93149267/growing-demand-for-a2-milk-a-serious-threat-to-dairy-industry-woodford-warns&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwihh5zCjrjUAhWDpJQKHfIdCxMQFggFMAA&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNEfpqGZ1EwR8zdbh-0JrEwztiWidQ)

[sb9]

Over in Hot Copper some interesting are claims being made, quoting the latest from Prof Keith Woodward.......

"The a2 Platinum formula was moving into the number one position in Australia, with a 30 per cent market share. Most of the remaining product was exported to China.
"A2 is on a roll. I'm working on the issue all around the world and I can tell you, it's going to hurt [New Zealand's dairy industry," he said.
"We've got an opportunity - and it can still be an opportunity and not a risk - but New Zealand has to get on the road to converting its herds to A2."
"We are becoming a serious threat to the Dairy Industry Woodford warns. Growing international demand for A2 ...It's crazy NZ farmers aren't changing their cows to a2 as soon as possible."



Totally agree, can't imagine where this will be in 5 years time....sp in double digits perhaps :p

[Leftfield]

Totally agree, can't imagine where this will be in 5 years time....sp in double digits perhaps :p

Can't help remembering the 'old days' when See Weed was busy stalking Auckland supermarkets handing out flyers to promote A2.....seems we owe a BIG vote of thanks to See Weed!! ;) (and a few others... including Prof Woodward)

[LegendOfRiot]

Was also only 2 years (June 2015) since the whole potential takeover news.

[sb9]

Well in the meantime Bellamy's woes continue to haunt them...

Look at their announcements on ASX re Capital raise, one-off payment to Fonterra, plan to buy a canning plant and not but not the least another profit downgrade (mainly due to one-off payment to Fonterra)....the list goes on!!!

[JoeGrogan]

Some nice share price action today, back in the 3.50's. The market expecting an update this week?

[couta1]

Some nice share price action today, back in the 3.50's. The market expecting an update this week? Just a big solid day on both markets, all round, would be more the reason I'd say.

[couta1]

Just a big solid day on both markets, all round, would be more the reason I'd say. Could be the opposite today, looking at the early match price on the ASX.

[JoeGrogan]

Could be the opposite today, looking at the early match price on the ASX.

Yeah i saw that, but supposedly it is option expiry day on the ASX which won't have a major effect on opening.

[Scooter]

Update - go you good thing
The a2 Milk Company Limited (“a2MC” or the “Company”) provided its last update on the Group’s full year FY17
outlook on 26 April 2017. As part of that update, the Company advised that, in response to continuing strong
demand for a2 Platinum® infant formula, a2MC had been working closely with its infant formula manufacturing
partner, Synlait Milk, to uplift the production schedule for the remainder of FY17.
Based on a review of its unaudited financial results to 31 May 2017, and production deliveries of a2 Platinum®
infant formula being achieved in June consistent with the revised production schedule, the Company has
determined it appropriate to further revise its full year outlook upwards. Group revenue is now forecast to be
approximately NZ$545 million for the 2017 financial year, an increase of approximately NZ$20 million on the
previous update.
As part of the commentary given at the time of release of the Company’s first half results on 15 February 2017,
a2MC advised that its investment in marketing would likely be higher in the second half by up to NZ$15 million,
based on the planned phasing of communication and development activities across the year. Due to changes in
the phasing of the marketing investment, primarily in China, marketing expenditure in the second half is now
expected to be approximately NZ$10 million higher than the first half of the 2017 financial year.

[kizame]

Update - go you good thing
The a2 Milk Company Limited (“a2MC” or the “Company”) provided its last update on the Group’s full year FY17
outlook on 26 April 2017. As part of that update, the Company advised that, in response to continuing strong
demand for a2 Platinum® infant formula, a2MC had been working closely with its infant formula manufacturing
partner, Synlait Milk, to uplift the production schedule for the remainder of FY17.
Based on a review of its unaudited financial results to 31 May 2017, and production deliveries of a2 Platinum®
infant formula being achieved in June consistent with the revised production schedule, the Company has
determined it appropriate to further revise its full year outlook upwards. Group revenue is now forecast to be
approximately NZ$545 million for the 2017 financial year, an increase of approximately NZ$20 million on the
previous update.
As part of the commentary given at the time of release of the Company’s first half results on 15 February 2017,
a2MC advised that its investment in marketing would likely be higher in the second half by up to NZ$15 million,
based on the planned phasing of communication and development activities across the year. Due to changes in
the phasing of the marketing investment, primarily in China, marketing expenditure in the second half is now
expected to be approximately NZ$10 million higher than the first half of the 2017 financial year.

Wow Then I have made 2 timely purchases,what a company!

[Leftfield]

Great news today! This company is v impressive and is a continued hold for me . I expect more good news as the year unfolds. Congrats to all.

[Oliver Mander]

Agree with the 'good news' growth sentiment...only comment to add is that while the increase in marketing investment is good for the long-term, it offsets any any margin benefit from the updated revenue guidance for this years result.

Good to see the long-term approach though! Wish more companies would think like that...

Happy holder :-)

[hardt]

Blatantly obvious this second upgrade was coming...

Cherry ontop is the marketing costs being only 10m as opposed to 15m as most of us were thinking, it's looking very good for us holders.

[sb9]

Blatantly obvious this second upgrade was coming...

Cherry ontop is the marketing costs being only 10m as opposed to 15m as most of us were thinking, it's looking very good for us holders.

That's the sweet bit for me, $5 mln saved in costs directly associated with more bottom line for the company. :t_up:

[sb9]

My pick is they would scrape past $550m+ for the year...

[see weed]

Can't help remembering the 'old days' when See Weed was busy stalking Auckland supermarkets handing out flyers to promote A2.....seems we owe a BIG vote of thanks to See Weed!! ;) (and a few others... including Prof Woodward)
Thanks L f. Yes the good old days, had to promote a2 because of accumulating so many at 50c to 60c that every time it went up or down 1c was losing or gaining $3570. Funny, in those days, the sp would go down on good news:).

[kizame]

Thanks L f. Yes the good old days, had to promote a2 because of accumulating so many at 50c to 60c that every time it went up or down 1c was losing or gaining $3570. Funny, in those days, the sp would go down on good news:).

Crikey See Weed thats a lot of shares,amazing you believed so much in the company when still there was so much uncertainty as to whether it would gain the traction it has.
The amazing thing is,the growth potential is still astronomical in my view.

[Leftfield]

Thanks L f. Yes the good old days, had to promote a2 because of accumulating so many at 50c to 60c that every time it went up or down 1c was losing or gaining $3570. Funny, in those days, the sp would go down on good news:).

I hope you are now laughing all the way to the bank see weed! You certainly helped me see the light with this company. Much appreciated.

[Beagle]

Yes I vividly recall an Auckland ST meeting where rather than pontificate endlessly about the next big thing, see weed went around the pub talking to other patrons and handing out A2 flyers with all the fervor of a Pentecostal preacher ! Talk about giving a dog a bone to chew...you did a superb job mate, right down to the marrow !

[sb9]

Well not long to go until we see price with 4 handle...go you good thing.:t_up::D

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks L f. Yes the good old days, had to promote a2 because of accumulating so many at 50c to 60c that every time it went up or down 1c was losing or gaining $3570. Funny, in those days, the sp would go down on good news:).

If you had those today, would have been $99,960 better off (on paper).

Not bad for a days work!

[Leftfield]

http://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/16/why-the-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-share-price-could-be-heading-to-a-record-high/

sb9 you are in good company....Motley Fool now predicting SP to break $A 4.00

[misterx]

http://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/16/why-the-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-share-price-could-be-heading-to-a-record-high/

sb9 you are in good company....Motley Fool now predicting SP to break $A 4.00

Getting there slowly. Matter of time now I think..

[sb9]

http://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/16/why-the-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-share-price-could-be-heading-to-a-record-high/

sb9 you are in good company....Motley Fool now predicting SP to break $A 4.00

Looks like its itching to claim that $4 dollar anytime soon....

Few posters on HC have mentioned that few AUS fund managers upgraded the price range to A$ 4.22+ mark which is about NZ $4.45....

[Yoda]

Can they get hold of enough A2 milk to actually cover the proposed growth ? There are only a certain amount of cows , after all right ? At what point does the proposed growth become hampered by the supply of actual milk ? and at what SP does that become over- priced . The PS is already looking at future growth , right.
Im not a farmer, so have no idea how long it takes to double your milking heard, but if the supply runs dry or stagnates, there will be a problem ! Better call the Vet and get some AI going on :-)

[Oliver Mander]

has just hit $4.00,...with all of 60 shares traded!!!

[Latama]

And there goes all the asks at $4! Someone just went gangbusters on them and took them all out.

[Leftfield]

Looks like its itching to claim that $4 dollar anytime soon....

Few posters on HC have mentioned that few AUS fund managers upgraded the price range to A$ 4.22+ mark which is about NZ $4.45....

Back in April post #5989 I saw potential up to $NZ 4.11 and that was before the latest upgrade, so all is looking great IMHO.

[kizame]

Can they get hold of enough A2 milk to actually cover the proposed growth ? There are only a certain amount of cows , after all right ? At what point does the proposed growth become hampered by the supply of actual milk ? and at what SP does that become over- priced . The PS is already looking at future growth , right.
Im not a farmer, so have no idea how long it takes to double your milking heard, but if the supply runs dry or stagnates, there will be a problem ! Better call the Vet and get some AI going on :-)

I don't know the ins and outs,but I would guess a lot of farmers in the area would be interested in converting to get a better price,so could change herds in advance whilst still supplying to Fonterra,then change to synlait with a divided herd,not sure how that works but someone else on here might be able to shed some light.

[BlackPeter]

Can they get hold of enough A2 milk to actually cover the proposed growth ? There are only a certain amount of cows , after all right ? At what point does the proposed growth become hampered by the supply of actual milk ? and at what SP does that become over- priced . The PS is already looking at future growth , right.
Im not a farmer, so have no idea how long it takes to double your milking heard, but if the supply runs dry or stagnates, there will be a problem ! Better call the Vet and get some AI going on :-)

Actually - I wondered about that as well. Did talk last week with the CFO of Synlait (was there on a factory tour with the NZSA) - and he said that they have at current much more A2 milk that they sell as A2 milk. They sell as much A2 as they can as A2 - and the rest just goes into the "regular milk" products. More demand for A2 would just increase their margin (given that they can sell if for a higher price ...).

He was a bit cagey when I asked him about the ratios between A2 / grass fed / regular ... but it certainly didn't sound that A2 supply would be an issue anytime soon.

[BlackPeter]

I don't know the ins and outs,but I would guess a lot of farmers in the area would be interested in converting to get a better price,so could change herds in advance whilst still supplying to Fonterra,then change to synlait with a divided herd,not sure how that works but someone else on here might be able to shed some light.

Well, yes - converting a herd from A1 to A2 does take time (think up to 10 years. depending where you start), however the good news is that Synlait has at this stage a waiting lists of farmers who would like to move from Fonterra to them (there are a number of benefits for them to supply Synlait instead of Fonterra - like additional bonus for speciality milk, a bonus for sustainable farming and no need to invest into the milk processor (frees up capital when coming from Fonterra).

As per my last post it sounds as well that Synlait have at current more A2 milk than they can sell A2 branded.

[JCM]

If you had those today, would have been $99,960 better off (on paper).

Not bad for a days work!

By my calculations you're off by an order of magnitude...

See Weed must be a happy man!


Actually - I wondered about that as well. Did talk last week with the CFO of Synlait (was there on a factory tour with the NZSA) - and he said that they have at current much more A2 milk that they sell as A2 milk. They sell as much A2 as they can as A2 - and the rest just goes into the "regular milk" products. More demand for A2 would just increase their margin (given that they can sell if for a higher price ...).

He was a bit cagey when I asked him about the ratios between A2 / grass fed / regular ... but it certainly didn't sound that A2 supply would be an issue anytime soon.

Thanks for that additional info. It would be great to get some figures behind how much growth they can support with current/forecast production of A2.

[BlackPeter]

...
Thanks for that additional info. It would be great to get some figures behind how much growth they can support with current/forecast production of A2.

Agreed. For some reason though they didn't wanted to give me these data. Apparently they think they are commercially sensitive ;).

[sb9]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/amazon-buys-supermarket-chain-us14b-ck-204269

Whole foods is one of stockists of A2 milk in US being bought over by Amazon.

[sb9]

Latest article from Prof Keith Woodford..

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2017/06/19/the-green-grass-of-taranaki/#more-1696

Few relevant points I've copied out as below...

****
I shared with my Taranaki audience some thoughts about dairying of the future, but I only needed to look forward a few years to see an industry that will look very different to what we have now. To start with, the herds of the future will all be A2.

I have been promoting the notion of converting our herds to A2 for more than 10 years. It has been a bruising journey with both facts and ‘alternative facts’ brought forth in the debate. But in the long run, it can only end up one way.
It is only ten years ago that the shares of The a2 Milk Company (ATM) were worth about eight cents. As I write this on June 19 2017, the share value has climbed above $4. ATM now has a capital value approaching $3 billion, and is the darling of the New Zealand Stock Exchange.

This close-to-3 billion ATM share value reflects the value of products (primarily infant formula and fresh milk) coming from just 65 Synlait farms in New Zealand (for infant formula) plus perhaps another 35 ATM direct-supply farms in Australia, the UK and the USA (for fresh milk). In comparison, Fonterra has a market value of about $9 billion but that is from the milk from more than 10,000 farms.

Producing A2 milk, i.e. milk that is free of A1 beta-casein, is a breeding pathway open to any New Zealand farmer. Delaying the conversion only turns an opportunity into a profound risk.

There are some hundreds of New Zealand farmers who are on the conversion journey, and the big global semen companies tell me they are ready for a global rush of demand for A2 semen. But most New Zealand dairy farmers have believed the soothing messages from their processing companies and herd-improvement company LIC that it is not going to be a key issue. I expect to be writing a lot more about A2 again over coming months, with a pulse of new science in the pipeline.

****

[winner69]

Harbour locking in some profit?

[Yoda]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260277.pdf
why would the chief Ex sell-down yesterday .
maybe scared a few people today . ??

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260277.pdf
why would the chief Ex sell-down yesterday .
maybe scared a few people today . ?? Just selling around half of his wife's shares by the looks, he still holds a heap of options.

[hardt]

Just selling around half of his wife's shares by the looks, he still holds a heap of options.

And 150,000 ordinary shares in wife's name.

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed but I will ask the question anyway.

When does the Fresha Valley license end for distribution of A2 milk in NZ? I would like to think A2 will try to replicate what they have done in Australia with branded A2 milk and other products.

I also wonder who would package this for them, could Synlaits new Auckland plant have a bottling line? Would A2 go alone? Where are they going to get all the A2 milk supply from? I wonder if there have been farms converting over the last few years in anticipation of this.

Its probably not a big $ impact if they grow NZ but it would be nice to see their presence grow here.

[sb9]

Couple of new senior appointees buying on market...

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/303045

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/303044

[Leftfield]

When does the Fresha Valley license end for distribution of A2 milk in NZ? I would like to think A2 will try to replicate what they have done in Australia with branded A2 milk and other products...... Its probably not a big $ impact if they grow NZ but it would be nice to see their presence grow here.

This from ATM's FY2013 annual report.... so we should expect an update soon?

"The Company continued discussions with the sole non-exclusive licensee for a2TM brand fresh milk in New Zealandgiven our objective to become more involved in the the sales and marketing activities in this market. The term of thecurrent license runs until May 2017 and while we are keen to become more involved, the timing now rests with the licensee. "

[kizame]

Would love to see a2 milk in my supermarket,in fact havn't seen it anywhere. Be great to hear they are gearing up to stock the markets.

[Leftfield]

Would love to see a2 milk in my supermarket,in fact havn't seen it anywhere. Be great to hear they are gearing up to stock the markets.

It's an interesting debate. Although it would be great to see stronger marketing in NZ. I suspect ATM has better priorities in other much bigger markets (such as China and USA.)

In terms of balancing A2 supply and demand as well as maximising returns, it may be better that most of their NZ supply is exported as IF?

And besides, why pick a fight with Frontera in NZ.........yet?

[Joshuatree]

When it was here i tried it out; no big deal ; didn't notice anything except it went off quicker. Sun latte is the best imo , pasteurised but NOT homogenised. has anyone got conclusive scientific proof re the merits of A2? Doesn't affect the s/p thats for sure!

[Leftfield]

....has anyone got conclusive scientific proof re the merits of A2? Doesn't affect the s/p thats for sure!

Suggest you DYOR. ATM's web site contains many links. This reference links (http://blog.katescarlata.com/2016/09/01/got-cows-milk-intolerance-lets-learn/) you to just some of the research.

ATM is a bit like climate change.....for the believers there is ample research, for the sceptics there will never be enough research.

For this holder, ATM solved some digestive problems plus the green arrow showing a 600% plus gain is very easy on my stomach.

[Joshuatree]

"ATM is a bit like climate change.....for the believers there is ample research, for the sceptics there will never be enough research." left field.

Great line,so true. OK point taken i won't be sceptical again if i haven't done the research. I think i did some time ago and found nothing conclusive .Time to look again sometime. Had a very good gain on ATM but sold for the above reasons; my loss. Fantastic gain for you left field :t_up: and glad it helps your health.

[Rossimarnz]

Apologies if this has been covered before as it is a couple of weeks old, but don't recall seeing it on here. A2 Milk wins its category in International Dairy awards - see article

http://www.foodbev.com/news/winners-and-finalists-of-the-world-dairy-innovation-awards-revealed/

[Jonboyz]

"ATM is a bit like climate change.....for the believers there is ample research, for the sceptics there will never be enough research." left field.

Great line,so true. OK point taken i won't be sceptical again if i haven't done the research. I think i did some time ago and found nothing conclusive .Time to look again sometime. Had a very good gain on ATM but sold for the above reasons; my loss. Fantastic gain for you left field :t_up: and glad it helps your health.

A2 has strong scientific advocates. My wife attended the annual GP Conference this year and was bombarded with medical evidence supporting and promoting A2! Their will be a lot of doctors buying into this stuff - me for one.

[IAK]

[QUOTE=Joshuatree;671160]When it was here i tried it out; no big deal ; didn't notice anything except it went off quicker. Sun latte is the best imo , pasteurised but NOT homogenised. has anyone got conclusive scientific proof re the merits of A2? Doesn't affect the s/p thats for sure![/QUOTEe

My understanding is that there is no conclusive scientific evidence so I'll be interested to read "the pulse of new science in the pipeline" as stated by Keith Woodford. Nevertheless, the bottom line is - if you're lactose intolerant or have an allergy to milk protein and A2 makes you feel better then you'll buy it. Congrats to share holders.

Disc. Scientist

[stoploss]

This can only help A2 sales ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/94310914/study-finds-potentially-toxic-nanoparticles-in-baby-formula-sold-in-new-zealand

[sb9]

Across the ditch an industry related news, BAL is put under trading halt. The reason being their recent acquisition Camperdown's IF powder licence has been suspended by CNCA (CFDA regulatory body in China) overnight.

This further strengthens the brand image of A2 IF.

[winner69]

Goldman Sachs a SSH(again?)

Borrow and derivatives used a lot in the SSH whatever that implies

[couta1]

Price getting hammered down due to the trading halt on BAL, guilty by association, we've been here before.

[hardt]

Price getting hammered down due to the trading halt on BAL, guilty by association, we've been here before.

I backed up the truck on A2M last time this happened... good money after good here?

[JoeGrogan]

I backed up the truck on A2M last time this happened... good money after good here?

It's filled the 3.85 gap, will be interesting to see if it moves towards the 3.56 gap up (probably unlikely to get filled). I'm currently looking for an opportunity to top up.

[sb9]

There we've it...Bellamy's goes into voluntary suspension again until it sorts out the CNCA licence suspensions issues. Back to square 1, hmmmmm....

[hardt]

ATM’s robust outperformance over the last 2-yrs has been earnings upgrade driven,” said Deutsche Bank, “looking forward, we see potential for this to continue with our analysis

of ATM’s brand interest in its key end market China remaining strong.”

What does the investment bank see going on in China that’s firming the company’s foothold? Four reasons:

1. Rising wealth levels

2. Relaxation of single child policy

3. A preference for imported product

4. Alignment to growing distribution channels (e.g. online and MBS)

The analysts do, however, leave a caveat due to risk hovering over an infamous channel contributing to “exponential” growth in the company’s infant formula range: the entreprenerual Chinese ‘diagiou’

“This channel remains an open question whether it will see stronger regulatory impost to close the potential tax leakage and lift traceability.”

Optimistic from Deutsche - price target of $5 seems to have kicked it off again... I for one could care less what brokers have to say, but I sure love to see them back a pick or two.

[Ace]

Thanks L f. Yes the good old days, had to promote a2 because of accumulating so many at 50c to 60c that every time it went up or down 1c was losing or gaining $3570. Funny, in those days, the sp would go down on good news:).

See weed did you actually do this? Haha wow... that's amazing!

[sb9]

Well folks, BAL comes out of voluntary suspension and resumes trading today across the ditch on ASX. Could be an interesting day as it unfolds...lets wait and see.

[value_investor]

I've got to eat some humble pie here with this share, it had been on my radar for a while and I got really close to buying in about a year ago when it was around $2. At this point though, I thought the whole A2 thing was a gimmick and that the valuation at that point was just pure hype and speculation. The earnings/revenue growth we have seen in the past 12 months had not occurred so I thought the share price didn't support the hype. How wrong was I?

Congratulations to all the shareholders for making such a health gain! Still lamenting getting in at this price. A PE of almost 50 is eye watering at the moment.

Good luck to all the holders!

[Leftfield]

Nice SP movements the last few days. Bollinger bands getting squeezed. More upside ahead?

Over in Hot Copper the attached pics seem to typify ATM selling all it can supply in Aus supermarkets, while other brands languish.

9027
9028

[sb9]

Nice SP movements the last few days. Bollinger bands getting squeezed. More upside ahead?

Over in Hot Copper the attached pics seem to typify ATM selling all it can supply in Aus supermarkets, while other brands languish.

9027
9028

Good on ya lf for posting those pics, did see them on HC too.

With less than a month to go before the EOY results out on 23rd Aug, those kind of anecdotal evidences bode well.

[hardt]

I've got to eat some humble pie here with this share, it had been on my radar for a while and I got really close to buying in about a year ago when it was around $2. At this point though, I thought the whole A2 thing was a gimmick and that the valuation at that point was just pure hype and speculation. The earnings/revenue growth we have seen in the past 12 months had not occurred so I thought the share price didn't support the hype. How wrong was I?

Congratulations to all the shareholders for making such a health gain! Still lamenting getting in at this price. A PE of almost 50 is eye watering at the moment.

Good luck to all the holders!

Have a look in 6 months and tell me how lofty $4 looks! :)

[Leftfield]

Good on ya lf for posting those pics, did see them on HC too.

With less than a month to go before the EOY results out on 23rd Aug, those kind of anecdotal evidences bode well.

What is also telling in the pics is that ATM retailing at $27 has sold out, while other competitors on special at $20 remain unsold. Clearly consumers perceive benefits from ATM and are willing to pay a premium. Exciting times predicted ahead when ATM's doubling of production takes hold in October.

[sb9]

What is also telling in the pics is that ATM retailing at $27 has sold out, while other competitors on special at $20 remain unsold. Clearly consumers perceive benefits from ATM and are willing to pay a premium. Exciting times predicted ahead when ATM's doubling of production takes hold in October.

Exactly, trading upgrade on sales is one thing, but what the product margins and final NPAT figure for FY17 is entirely different thing.

[Beagle]

Coutts will be happily playing on Coronet ski field and oblivious to the fact that he's cleaning up. I know he recently backed up the truck and trailer unit on this one. He's getting more cunning these days, not like the days of old where he's load up on speculative mutts he now chooses quality companies. Well done mate.

[hardt]

Comparative to wet milk , infant formula has margins dreams are made of.




A2 MILK COMPANY - NZ

FY13A

FY14A

FY15A

FY16A

FY17F*



















OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm

94.5

110.8

155.1

352.8

546.0*



Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues

64.30%

64.00%

64.80%

57.20%

52.00%



Cost of promotional marketing as a proportion of trading revenues

4.80%

8.90%

9.40%

10.30%

10.00%



Cost of logistics/shipping & freight as a proportion of trading revenues

7.90%

7.20%

6.00%

4.40%

4.00%



Cost of corporate as a percentage of trading revenues

10.70%

15.00%

15.30%

11.40%

10.00%




Net margin difference on previous Y


n/a


(7.40%)


(0.40%)


12.20%


7.30%




OPERATING EXPENSES INCURRED - NZDm


84.8


106.6


151.0


297.3


428.6

[Gunny]

I notice we are now main stream at the Newtown Countdown in Wellington with four high double depth crates of A2 centre stage in the chilled milk isle, brilliant best I have seen. Following must be growing around here. A2 availability at this store was the reason I started shopping here a long time ago.

However in passing noticed the new Beachlands Countdown in Auckland had none, do we have distribution issues up there?

Gunny

[whatsup]

$4.24 ALL TIME HIGT , there must be an major update coming, when is the next ann due, are we in for a rerating ?

[silu]

After buying a truck load at 50c I sold half of them at $1.60 early last year. Better check what I did with the money and it better be good.

[Ted2]

Yep I've been wondering what's happening with the love of my life today! No news so maybe just the HC bods exciting themselves again?
Sold 20K of my 50c pile at 2.25 because I couldn't see them going much higher and wanted to lock some profit in. And told the wife it wasn't worth putting her 50K into ATM then as there was now too much downside! Another great call.............Now I just go along for the ride and enjoy every 1c movement and think how my favourite saying is so applicable to my investing....

"Luck beats skill any day".....

[Beagle]

Yeap, everyone needs a bit of luck. The hound has a few of these squirreled away in the corner of his kennel but with the benefit of hindsight, definitly not enough !

[sb9]

Yeap, everyone needs a bit of luck. The hound has a few of these squirreled away in the corner of his kennel but with the benefit of hindsight, definitly not enough !

That's correct Beagle, hindsight is wonderful thins isn't it....luckily I think I've added enough through the years to keep me happy....looking at current trend bit tempting though to lock in some profits, but part of me says story just gaining traction so let's wait and see,

[Leftfield]

Wow what a start to the day! :eek2: :) It will be interesting to see what happens when ASX trading commences.

[sb9]

Wow what a start to the day! :eek2: :) It will be interesting to see what happens when ASX trading commences.

The shorters won't let it fly over there....rumour mill on HC is saying that likes of Macquarie and other big names have initiated coverage on A2 and hence the price surge...

[Beagle]

The shorters won't let it fly over there....rumour mill on HC is saying that likes of Macquarie and other big names have initiated coverage on A2 and hence the price surge...

Looks like the stock's going to Pluto the way its flying. What's the bet Coutts can't help himself and is watching the fun from on his cellphone at Coronet Peak ski field ?

[sb9]

Looks like the stock's going to Pluto the way its flying. What's the bet Coutts can't help himself and is watching the fun from on his cellphone at Coronet Peak ski field ?

Yeah, if he checks on ski field, better keep the balance on those slippery slopes as the way price going he's sure to loose balance :)

But seriously something's brewing in the background. Another theory could be with Amazon buying up Whole Foods who stock A2 milk in US and also Amazon looking to buy up good growth businesses across globe, may be just may be this lil beauty is on their radar....

[Beagle]

Coutts told me this is a $10 stock in 2020 before he left for his trip (after backing up the truck). I reckon he might have the year wrong the way this is going :)

[Leftfield]

Nice to have Coutt's confirmation although I suspect a SP of $10 will happen sooner than 2020. If sales growth at the moment is impressive, imagine what can happen when powdered milk production doubles from Oct this year.

I've seen the speculation of an Amazon buy-out, and believe it is just that - speculation. I for one would hate to see ATM disappear into foreign ownership...... that is, unless it is sold tomorrow for a SP of $10! ;)

[whatsup]

$4.50 Kiwi !!

[silu]

Only 50c left for my first ever 10-bagger :)

[Ninefingers]

Awesome. Got in at 64c...that 10-bagger might be a wee way off...

[Absolute144]

Yeah, if he checks on ski field, better keep the balance on those slippery slopes as the way price going he's sure to loose balance :)

But seriously something's brewing in the background. Another theory could be with Amazon buying up Whole Foods who stock A2 milk in US and also Amazon looking to buy up good growth businesses across globe, may be just may be this lil beauty is on their radar....

Has no one noticed all the cash settled equity swaps by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc posted under the becoming a substantial holder on the 7th July? Then you better take a look. Also read the following...

http://www.mondaq.com/australia/x/33608/Financial+Services/Cash+Settled+Equity+Swaps+in+Takeovers

[Leftfield]

I understand a likely reason for the recent surge in ATM is a just released 18 page report on ATM by Macquarie (which I have not seen) but which apparently has the title. "The A2 Milk Co..... A Path to $8.00"

Love those sentiments!!

[sb9]

Zeepers!!!! not for fainted this one, big gyrations on the daily chart, happy to watch the fun from side-line though.

[Beagle]

Zeepers!!!! not for fainted this one, big gyrations on the daily chart, happy to watch the fun from side-line though.

LOL yeah, pleased I haven't got too many today, funny that :)

[whatsup]

New all time high at $4.55 on strong buying whatsup ?

[suse]

I feel like I have missed the boat on this. I nearly bought in at $1.80 and then there was a big advance and so I missed out and just kept watching. Now i feel like it's too dear for me. I'm really mainly into dividend stocks but who can deny a good profit opportunity.

[BlackPeter]

I feel like I have missed the boat on this. I nearly bought in at $1.80 and then there was a big advance and so I missed out and just kept watching. Now i feel like it's too dear for me. I'm really mainly into dividend stocks but who can deny a good profit opportunity.

Some stocks look always dear ... but just keep rising. Obviously - this is unless you bought them 2 years ago for 60 cents;) (discl: wish I had, but didn't either); BTW - If you look into 4 traders - experts expect for this and the coming years fast rising dividends: 2017 - 1 cent, 2018 - 6 cents, 2019 - 9 cents;

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

Obviously - all stocks carry risk, but at this stage I feel with ATM that the potential rewards are greater than the risks;

Discl: holding;

[sb9]

https://www.9now.com.au/a-current-affair/2017/extras/latest/170803/baby-formula-frenzy

The above video coverage is going viral over on HC as to how to hot the IF market is and in particular A2 with few snippets from Peter Nathan.

[t.rexjr]

https://www.9now.com.au/a-current-affair/2017/extras/latest/170803/baby-formula-frenzy

The above video coverage is going viral over on HC as to how to hot the IF market is and in particular A2 with few snippets from Peter Nathan.

For those whose IP address locks them out

https://twitter.com/acurrentaffair9?lang=en

Scroll down 3 or 4 articles...

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/305037

Another step closer to CFDA registration....just matter of time before they get the approval.

[Jonboyz]

"Liquid gold"

[King1212]

gutted..sold at $2.80..should bought back when it was $2.44 but kept telling myself it was overpriced.....grrrgrrrr

[Leftfield]

For those whose IP address locks them out

https://twitter.com/acurrentaffair9?lang=en

Scroll down 3 or 4 articles...

Thanks to you and sb9 for posting, amazing support for the ATM story and no doubt partly behind today's surge (along with the China registration update.)

[flyer]

yes, thanks for that link. Great day for the stock.

[sb9]

Thanks to you and sb9 for posting, amazing support for the ATM story and no doubt partly behind today's surge (along with the China registration update.)

Yes, I think the market is pricing in the CFDA approval and also surge in A2 brand image.

The current rerating might take it close to $5 mark before the results are out on 23rd Aug.

Another thing to note is lower % of shorting overs past 4 to 5 trading days, which I presume is due to shorters taking into account the likelihood of a dividend to be announced as mentioned by Geoff in one of earlier presentations last year.

And what's left after all this is the elephant in the room "Pending Lion case" and if that goes A2's way (most likely it'll), then all external constraints removed and increased supply from Synlait should help the company realise its true potential in earnings.

As always DYOR.

[TideMan]

For those whose IP address locks them out

https://twitter.com/acurrentaffair9?lang=en

Scroll down 3 or 4 articles...

In the article, the customers imply that A2 baby formula is an Aussie product. Is it? Or is it supplied from NZ, and this is another case of the Aussie thievery of a Kiwi icon?

[JeremyALD]

Wow I'm blown away by the performance of this stock and I've really missed the boat selling out. Question now is if is this is a risky decision to buy back at this price? Surely there'll be a pull back at some point, but I've been thinking that since $3. It really is seeming unstoppable at this point.

[mondograss]

In the article, the customers imply that A2 baby formula is an Aussie product. Is it? Or is it supplied from NZ, and this is another case of the Aussie thievery of a Kiwi icon?

The article isn't specifically talking about A2, it's just that Peter Nathan from A2 happens to be commenting.

[silu]

After buying a truck load at 50c I sold half of them at $1.60 early last year. Better check what I did with the money and it better be good.

Just checked - bought Fluence (formerly EMC) and Xtek on the ASX so can't be too upset about my decision.

My mistake was the absence of parents with babies in my life and a general scepticism about dealings with China.

[Leftfield]

In the article, the customers imply that A2 baby formula is an Aussie product. Is it? Or is it supplied from NZ, and this is another case of the Aussie thievery of a Kiwi icon?

As long as A2M keeps selling and the share price keeps going up, who cares!!

Seriously, the beauty of the A2M business model is that its milk supplies are a mix of sources (nicely spreading risks while allowing local 'ownership' of the brand.) E.g. Fresh milk comes from the country it is operating in e.g. USA, Aust, UK etc however as I understand it Synlait is the supplier of A2's infant formula to Aust, Asia and China.

[sb9]

In the article, the customers imply that A2 baby formula is an Aussie product. Is it? Or is it supplied from NZ, and this is another case of the Aussie thievery of a Kiwi icon?

I totally get where you're coming from, but in this case to give credit where due, since A2 moved onto ASX and under the management of Geoff, Peter and others, they definitely made A2 what is today.

[silu]

I had a colleague who left us to work for A2 Milk in 2001. Totally, unashamedly a NZ success story.

[pierre]

Wow I'm blown away by the performance of this stock and I've really missed the boat selling out. Question now is if is this is a risky decision to buy back at this price? Surely there'll be a pull back at some point, but I've been thinking that since $3. It really is seeming unstoppable at this point.

I've had ATM on my watch list since it was about 80 cents and have always been too wary to make a purchase. Don't know why, as I've taken a few (mostly successful) punts over the years.

I definitely cant pluck up the courage to buy at the current price - but maybe I'll be regretting that in another year too.

[BlackPeter]

I've had ATM on my watch list since it was about 80 cents and have always been too wary to make a purchase. Don't know why, as I've taken a few (mostly successful) punts over the years.

I definitely cant pluck up the courage to buy at the current price - but maybe I'll be regretting that in another year too.

I know the feeling - and you probably will.

Discl: bought in a couple of days ago at $4.20 - and so far quite happy with my latest investment ;)

[Beagle]

I asked myself the hard question yesterday. Where do I see the SP in five years time ? (Probably where it is now after a 2 or 3:1 split) so I took a large brave pill and topped up some more. Did the same with HBL too....might have overdone it on the brave pills and maybe get my comeuppance with a short term pullback but long term I'm pretty sure I'm following the breadcrumbs to future profits.
https://www.blackmores.com.au/products/executive-b-stress-formula Good stuff when you're coping with stress or extra work pressure or want to feel a bit braver or all three factors.
Rating BBB (Beagles best bravepill) :)

[kizame]

I sold out today and will now probably suffer sellers remorse.

[misterx]

I sold out today and will now probably suffer sellers remorse.

Why would you sell at this time? Likely the results this month will be good too. Just curious

[ziggy415]

Why would you sell at this time? Likely the results this month will be good too. Just curious
I bought at 50 cents and sold at 68 cents...keep asking my self the same question...and I had 160,000 as well...keep kicking myself....all I wanted was exposure to dairy but fonterra had it sown up......then I look at at Xerox...bought at 75 cents...only cos Sam Morgan bought sum..and sold at 1dollar 50...what a guru..doubled me money in 6 weeks...im still black and blue from the kicking I've given myself...why...why ..why...can only laugh an move on..lol

[RupertBear]

I bought at 50 cents and sold at 68 cents...keep asking my self the same question...and I had 160,000 as well...keep kicking myself....all I wanted was exposure to dairy but fonterra had it sown up......then I look at at Xerox...bought at 75 cents...only cos Sam Morgan bought sum..and sold at 1dollar 50...what a guru..doubled me money in 6 weeks...im still black and blue from the kicking I've given myself...why...why ..why...can only laugh an move on..lol

Easy with the benefit of hindsight Ziggy to kick oursleves for selling too early. But it can just as easily go the other way and that feels even worse. I bought into the Wynyard hype and was reassured by Sam Morgan buying a big chunk. Duh! I am still kicking myself for not selling :(

[Leftfield]

I bought at 50 cents and sold at 68 cents...keep asking my self the same question...and I had 160,000 as well...keep kicking myself....all I wanted was exposure to dairy but fonterra had it sown up......then I look at at Xerox...bought at 75 cents...only cos Sam Morgan bought sum..and sold at 1dollar 50...what a guru..doubled me money in 6 weeks...im still black and blue from the kicking I've given myself...why...why ..why...can only laugh an move on..lol

Pheeeew you have my sympathies Ziggy.

For what it is worth, Whenever I buy a share I plan on holding it for 5 yrs or more, so look for coy's that have sound future prospects of above average NZX50 SP growth in that period (I'm not fixated on Dividend stocks but look for capital growth firstly, dividends are secondary.) If during the initial period of any holding the company goes negative on me, I am quick to sell (Think WYN). Selling losses early has tax advantages (if you need them). However if any of my longer term holdings go well (think ATM or XRO) then I ride that success and double up etc.

I find the long-term view has a lot going for it (not the least being that long term SP gains are non taxable 'capital gains'.) The old adage, "quit your losses early and ride your successes for the long term" makes sense to me - big time.

Hope this helps you in some way......

[kizame]

Why would you sell at this time? Likely the results this month will be good too. Just curious

Cos sometimes I have dumb brain implosions. Actually thought the market was about to take a rest.

[Lewylewylewy]

I was thinking that these looked good when they were just below $4. My finger was resting on the but button, but I decided against it as they don't fit my investing rules. Specifically there is no dividend history. I have regret, but don't feel too bad as you've got to stick to your strategy. And my strategy had been ok so far.

[stones]

Great for you lewylewylewy to have guts to stick to you guns for what you think is best for you. I have been very trigger happy too many times but I'm hanging for something better and will ride along with the rest.

[sb9]

Looking ominous to crack the $5 mark with exactly 2 weeks to EOY results.

[sb9]

Across the ditch an industry related news, BAL is put under trading halt. The reason being their recent acquisition Camperdown's IF powder licence has been suspended by CNCA (CFDA regulatory body in China) overnight.

This further strengthens the brand image of A2 IF.

Good news for Bellamy's across the ditch, the suspension of Camperdown's licence has been lifted.
Positive news for the sector overall.

[Leftfield]

Another step......

The a2 Milk Company Limited (the "Company") advised on 7 June 2017 that a new
position of Executive Vice President Greater China had been created to assume
responsibility for the leadership of the China business reporting to the
Chief Executive Asia Pacific and that recruitment for this Shanghai based
role was underway.

The Company is pleased to advise it has appointed Ms Jane Xu to this
position, effective from 14 August 2017.

Jane joins the Company with substantial domestic and international experience
in health care and consumer goods in particular. She has held senior sales,
marketing and leadership roles at leading organisations in China, such as
McKinsey, Novartis, and most recently, with Hershey where she successfully
held a diverse range of commercial leadership roles including as Vice
President and General Manager Greater China.

The role is focussed on maximising the opportunities that this significant
market presents for the Company. Jane's initial focus will be on delivering
the existing well-developed strategy and preparing for future growth
opportunities across Greater China.

[silu]

All good on the China front. However I have already set my thoughts towards the next decade in which India will be overtaking China as the world's most populous nation. As it's main religion does not forbid the use of milk or milk powder I'm ruminating whether A2 Infant formula could become a stable or find at least a niche in India?

Basic info about A2 milk in India:
The key difference between the two types of milk is the crucial A2 variety of beta casein protein, which is found in the milk of the zebu cows, camel, goat, donkey, buffalo, yak, sheep and even jersey cows. Indian cattle, scientifically known as Bos Indicus, fall in the zebu category.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-scope-of-A2-milk-in-India
https://www.quora.com/Which-A2-milk-brands-are-available-in-India

[silu]

Shamelessly stolen from HC as WSJ is behind a paywall. Article from today: https://www.wsj.com/articles/dairies-fix-for-souring-milk-sales-genetics-and-bananas-1502271000

Shamelessly edited by STMOD - we do not support copyright infringement here]

[Yoda]

Busted!!!! Pay one must when payment is due ..

[sb9]

From HC forum, apparently A2 has launched stage 4 Infant formula range and stock to arrive in next week or so.

Might crack that $5 mark as early as today or by end of week.

[silu]

Hopefully soon it will crack the $5 and I can finally celebrate my first ever 10-bagger.

[sb9]

Hopefully soon it will crack the $5 and I can finally celebrate my first ever 10-bagger.

There you go....even better its 5.01...:t_up::D

[suse]

every day I regret not getting on board this bus! :(

[BlackPeter]

every day I regret not getting on board this bus! :(

Just take your time .... though getting on the bus now might be better than keeping to regret not to enter it earlier ;)

DYOR ... but personally I think that the fundamentals look still pretty exciting;

Discl: hold;

[sb9]

every day I regret not getting on board this bus! :(

Fair enough and I can understand your feeling. While $5 might look bit steep to enter now, I thought of same thing when it kept going past $1, $2, $3 and $4 mark....and I did top up along the way at every $ step but for $4 mark...at 1.65, 2.09, 3.37 not to forget my initial investment at 0.58c.

Good luck to your entry point, there'll be an opportunity soon.

[see weed]

Hopefully soon it will crack the $5 and I can finally celebrate my first ever 10-bagger.
Looks like it's my first 10 bagger too. $10,000 invested on 26/3/15 now worth over $100,000. I just wished I'd kept the other 337,000 I sold to buy div. stocks :eek2::):confused::cool::mellow::D.

[silu]

Yes I was guilty of selling down some on the way up too but in the meantime I am enjoying seeing the +1000% number besides ATM in my portfolio.

[Beagle]

Exciting stock that's for sure...wish I'd held more but I am grateful for what I do hold and that I topped up with some more a couple of weeks ago.

[Leftfield]

Yes I was guilty of selling down some on the way up too but in the meantime I am enjoying seeing the +1000% number besides ATM in my portfolio.

A first for me too. My first 10 bagger and my retirement fund now has a boost of over $200,000. Exciting times. Congrats to other holders.

[suse]

Looks like it's my first 10 bagger too. $10,000 invested on 26/3/15 now worth over $100,000. I just wished I'd kept the other 337,000 I sold to buy div. stocks :eek2::):confused::cool::mellow::D.

NIce work!!!

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm only an amateur - my remaining holding has only been up 752%.

I sold 60% over recent months, which helped our house build.

But our builder thanks ATM for his new ute! :confused:;):eek2:

[Hoop]

Congratulations Guys

[flyer]

Profit Taking???

[sb9]

Profit Taking???

Shorters giving an opportunity for long term holders to accumulate more before results out next week on 23rd.

[hardt]

Shorters giving an opportunity for long term holders to accumulate more before results out next week on 23rd.

Not the shorters doing, net buyers shaking off the low hanging losers.

[couta1]

Not the shorters doing, net buyers shaking off the low hanging losers. Watch the shorters at their best after the result, I'm expecting a good drop, massive result priced in currently.

[sb9]

Not the shorters doing, net buyers shaking off the low hanging losers.

Agreed, might see it finish same as y'days close.

[Leftfield]

Watch the shorters at their best after the result, I'm expecting a good drop, massive result priced in currently.

Not too fussed either way. Used the recent highs to sell sufficient to 'freehold' my remaining balance. That said, this long term holder sees ATM as having the potential to reach $9.00 over the next 12 months. (Disc Holding and happy.)

[Joshuatree]

found this via a KW post elsewhere (thanks:). Think about A2 takeup in the USA :)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/trouble-with-dairy-a-new-type-of-milk-could-provide-a-solution/2017/08/10/67b8730a-7bb7-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html

[suse]

I finally bit the bullet and have an order in for shares today. STill kicking myself for not doing it at $1.80. I'm hoping to see dividends coming but obviously growth is appealing as well (cause I hate those little red down arrows appearing on my portfolio :) )

[sb9]

I finally bit the bullet and have an order in for shares today. STill kicking myself for not doing it at $1.80. I'm hoping to see dividends coming but obviously growth is appealing as well (cause I hate those little red down arrows appearing on my portfolio :) )

Good on ya suse, long term (12-18months time), you'll not be disappointed. In the meantime there might be days with red arrows in your portfolio.

[suse]

Good on ya suse, long term (12-18months time), you'll not be disappointed. In the meantime there might be days with red arrows in your portfolio.
gawd, even in the time it took for my order to be filled it went up 4c, I really need to move quicker :)

[whatsup]

When is the 2017 ann presentation, last year it was 24th Aug ?

[hardt]

Everything is looking peachy for another one of those years for holders.

[sb9]

"The Board has been evaluating capital management alternatives whilst continuing to maintain a flexible and conservative capital structure and now intends to establish an on-market buyback of the Company’s shares over the next 12 months of up to $40 million. Further details of the on-market buyback will be announced prior to commencement of the buyback. In addition, the Board remains open to consider the merits of a special dividend in light of progress on the buyback and future market conditions. "

[Leftfield]

And the results are.......



 Total revenue of $549.5 million – an increase of 56% over the prior corresponding period (pcp)

 EBITDA1 of $141.2 million – 159% ahead of the pcp

 EBITDA to sales margin of 26%, up from 15% on pcp

 Net profit after tax of $90.6 million – 198% ahead of the pcp

 Basic earnings per share (EPS) of 12.7 cents, an increase of 186% on pcp

 Operating cash flow of $99.9 million and a cash balance of $121.0 million at year end

 Continued strong growth in sales and market share for a2 Platinum® infant formula in Australia and China

 Sales growth of a2 MilkTM branded fresh milk and milk powders in Australia

 Increased investment in building brand awareness in the United States (US)

 Positive operating earnings in the United Kingdom (UK)

 Development of a broader nutritional products strategy and a new focus on emerging markets

[suse]

As I am pretty new to share trading, what does a buy back mean and what are the implications? I am pleased to see that they are considering a special dividend.

[silu]

That's some growth befitting a growing company with a PE that should only be reserved for growth like that. In shorter words - GROWTH!

[silu]

As I am pretty new to share trading, what does a buy back mean and what are the implications? I am pleased to see that they are considering a special dividend.

They believe their SP is undervalued. It also increases EPS (Earnings per share).

[JeremyALD]

They believe their SP is undervalued. It also increases EPS (Earnings per share).

Hard to see it undervalued at $5. But this share has been all of guns blazing so wouldn't be surprised to see a similar rocket this morning

[Leftfield]

Hard to see it undervalued at $5. But this share has been all of guns blazing so wouldn't be surprised to see a similar rocket this morning

OK I'll stick my head our and do a forecast.....EPS in FY17 grew 188% over FY16 to 12.7c.
If we assume slower 100% EPS growth in FY18 to (say) 25c. (could be more with share buy-back??) at a P/E of 30 we get a forward value of $7.50
Looking good to this happy holder......

[Beagle]

OK I'll stick my head our and do a forecast.....EPS in FY17 grew 188% over FY16 to 12.7c.
If we assume slower 100% EPS growth in FY18 to (say) 25c. (could be more with share buy-back??) at a P/E of 30 we get a forward value of $7.50
Looking good to this happy holder......

12.7 cps well ahead of average 4traders analyst expectations for FY17 of 11.1 cps.

[JeremyALD]

I may jump back in. Will see how the ASX reacts today.

[bucko]

Beautiful :)

[maccadac]

My broker said that they value the shares around $5 what are your guys thoughts?
That was late last week.

[Bjauck]

My broker said that they value the shares around $5 what are your guys thoughts?
That was late last week.
How did they reach their valuation?

My shins are bruised from kicking myself for reducing my holding recently....

[Jonboyz]

$5.19 today / up 5.70% in one day. Noice....

[peat]

peak a2 milk?

[Beagle]

peak a2 milk?

Trailing PE is 40 but Peat, take a peak into the future and the forward PE might only be 20 and then like a budgie it is still cheep cheep :D
The thing with great global brands growth is that they just keep GROWING !