ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[sb9]

Bots, algos whatever it may be, basically the big boys are playing a higher stakes game among themselves while shorters are running for cover. Happy to watch the fun from sidelines....

Have not seen such low level of short position in a long time (2.14% as of Friday).

Did resist the urge to sell any portion of my holdings on this one. Just logged out from online trading account while price is getting crazy or else temptation is too much to push the sell button.
Sure it'll have bad days with big price drops in the short term, however what I've noticed is that drops have been half (or less) of gains of previous day.

Happy to ride the wave for now until the ASM next month by which time we'll have singles day (11/11) trading update and who knows what that'll bring to price.

Onwards and upwards....

[RupertBear]

The trend is your friend. All you have to do with this stellar growth company is keep an eye on the 30 day MA and don't ever sell unless it breaks down through that indicator. That's my strategy and for what its worth I think that's at least as good as any other one.
It crossed my mind this morning for about a millisecond to take a little bit of profit because this has now become bigger than SUM of my other investments that I strongly believe in their business case but why fight the trend when its your best friend !
Beagle best wisdom is your paws get sore swimming against the tide so almost always try and swim with it !

Slightly off topic sorry but what charts do you use to monitor the 30 day MA and other TAs Mr Beagle? I have been using Yahoo Finance charts but they have changed a bit lately and I dont find them as user friendly.

[Beagle]

Slightly off topic sorry but what charts do you use to monitor the 30 day MA and other TAs Mr Beagle? I have been using Yahoo Finance charts but they have changed a bit lately and I dont find them as user friendly.

ANZ securities mate. 30 day MA is the red line and 100 day the black one in the charts menu.

[see weed]

ANZ securities mate. 30 day MA is the red line and 100 day the black one in the charts menu.
If it carries on at this rate it will be $9.50 by AGM day and $10.50 by Christmas:eek2:. Go on Beagle, take a gamble, sell some AIR and buy some a2;). You can buy back into AIR later on. I'm going to keep on buying until the cows come home to roost:t_up:.

[see weed]

Must admit I've finally bought back a2 after selling out at $3. Decided I couldn't take it anymore and I'm happy to lose a bit if it doesn't work out just so I don't keep thinking about what I've missed!

So far up 3% in a couple of hours haha
Ditto:t_up:. Don't mind it coming back a bit, just buy more.

[Beagle]

If it carries on at this rate it will be $9.50 by AGM day and $10.50 by Christmas:eek2:. Go on Beagle, take a gamble, sell some AIR and buy some a2;). You can buy back into AIR later on. I'm going to keep on buying until the cows come home to roost:t_up:.

LOL mate thanks for the encouragement but I enjoy a well diversified portfolio with no share having a position of more than 10% of my portfolio and I have no plans to change that strategy going forward.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/308424

Nice to see Michael Bracka - Head of Business Dev - Emerging Markets buying on market...albeit a small parcel of 17,000 shares.

Big vote of confidence...

[BlackPeter]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/308424

Nice to see Michael Bracka - Head of Business Dev - Emerging Markets buying on market...albeit a small parcel of 17,000 shares.

Big vote of confidence...

17,000 shares these days not such a small parcel anymore. That's at today's SP more than $125k! Quite a significant parcel in my books - I guess he is not a fund manager, isn't he?

[Leftfield]

LOL mate .... but I enjoy a well diversified portfolio with no share having a position of more than 10% of my portfolio and I have no plans to change that strategy going forward.

Interesting to debate Diversification.

Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “Diversification is protection against ignorance - it makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

In my case, from 2013 to present, ATM grew from 20% to over 60% of my portfolio and I was happy with that. Overall my total portfolio benefitted greatly from my not being too diversified (i.e. biased to ATM) While ATM has grown by over 1200% in that time, as a result my TOTAL portfolio has averaged 108% pa growth from 2013 to present, (i.e. non-taxable unrealized capital gain.)

I wonder if I would have achieved this result if I had stayed fully diversified with no stock counting for more than 10% of my portfolio?

[Beagle]

A good place to debate investment strategies is the investment strategies section of this forum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway - Looks extremely well diversified to me.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting to debate Diversification.

Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “Diversification is protection against ignorance - it makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

In my case, from 2013 to present, ATM grew from 20% to over 60% of my portfolio and I was happy with that. Overall my total portfolio benefitted greatly from my not being too diversified (i.e. biased to ATM) While ATM has grown by over 1200% in that time, as a result my TOTAL portfolio has averaged 108% pa growth from 2013 to present, (i.e. non-taxable unrealized capital gain.)

I wonder if I would have achieved this result if I had stayed fully diversified with no stock counting for more than 10% of my portfolio?

Probably not. Diversification clearly has its price. It does however preserve your money if things go not as planned and hoped for. Look at it like an insurance policy.

If you insure your house and you get a fire or a big earthquake you probably feel pretty smug. If you don't insure your house and there is no fire or earthquake ... does this mean that you've been clever?

The only time you don't need diversification is if you know exactly how the share price will develop in the future - i.e. 20/20 foresight. Nobody I know is able to do that ... but maybe it works for you? I guess with ATM so far you've been lucky - but would you be happy as well if ATM would have developed like WYN or PEB or XRO? Nobody knew for sure whether the A2 story will fly - and to be honest ... nobody knows what's around the next corner.

Diversification is good.

[winner69]

Back on topic

Seeweed says 950 by AGM

Hey 10 bucks sounds better

[winner69]

Wonder if Jian Yang has any influence on how much we sell to China

[hardt]

Does all this euphoria worry any holders even in the slightest?

Half my portfolio rides on this one... it worries me a little. ( but then again, it has been worrying me since December )

[couta1]

Does all this euphoria worry any holders even in the slightest?

Half my portfolio rides on this one... it worries me a little. ( but then again, it has been worrying me since December ) It would worry me if I was still holding any of my original sized helpings, but then there's no way I would have held on this long anyway. However that's not because of not being diversified but rather my unease with this particular stock, other stocks like SPK/CNU/AIR or any of the energy companies, im quite happy to hold a 50% or more portion of my portfolio at any given time for dividend purposes.

[Beagle]

Okay just a few words on strategy. Its a classic case of horses for courses. When you're young in your 20's or 30's one can afford to take big risks on young fast growing companies because if it all goes wrong you can start again and have plenty of time to rebuild your portfolio.
In your 50's or 60's once you've already built a nice portfolio it doesn't make any common sense to go risking too much on any one stock because for one thing hopefully by then one doesn't need to take untoward risks to achieve their investment goals and secondly if it goes wrong there's not much time left to rebuild. No one investment strategy is the "right fit" for all, just what suits each individual based on their age, risk tolerance and investment objectives.
I'm watching the technical's with this one. If it breaks down through the 30 day MA at some point in the future i'll probably sell half and if it continues down to breech the 100 day MA I'd sell the rest. Until then the trend is your friend until the bend in the end :) I have a modest position as part of a well diversified portfolio so no worries, just enjoying the growth :)

[winner69]

Does all this euphoria worry any holders even in the slightest?

Half my portfolio rides on this one... it worries me a little. ( but then again, it has been worrying me since December )

"When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself"

No worries

Ten bucks here we come

[Leftfield]

Good points thanks posters. Beagle's points about diversification and stages of investment are valid. I recall Buffet was not v diversified in his early stages (big punts on Berkshire, Insurance and Coca-Cola etc) While now Buffet has so much cash to invest, he has to diversify to find homes for all the cash.

Something for me to aim for!

That said, as ATM SP gets higher, the chances of it doubling again in 12 months get less likely (but you never know,) while other stocks such as PPH, THL, XRO and even humble BLT have good chances of doubling in the next 12 months.

So some diversification helps us find the next ATM! :t_up:

[suse]

That said, as ATM SP gets higher, the chances of it doubling again in 12 months get less likely (but you never know,) while other stocks such as PPH, THL, XRO and even humble BLT have good chances of doubling in the next 12 months.


Do you really think XRO could double??? It's running at $32odd at the mo!

I wish BLT would do something... its just stalled and I had high hopes for them. Must be an announcement due soon.

As for ATM, I finally got on the bus but I wish I had bought a few more tickets... I'm very undiversified in that I have a truckload tied up in HBL but maybe I should release some and get more ATM given they have talked about a special dividend?

[Beagle]

Not to forget about the share buy-back which they haven't even started yet either.

[Leftfield]

Not to forget about the share buy-back which they haven't even started yet either.

Can't help thinking that now the SP has moved up so much, that ATM may reconsider the share buy-back, and instead reward us all with a bigger special divi...... mere speculation tho'.

What-ever happens - nice to be 'well positioned.'

Suse, Both XRO and BLT have already doubled in my portfolio, and I expect them to do so again (just a question of when, but likely by end 2018.) FYI My portfolio is a bit 'left field' and biased to longer term capital gains (tax free) rather than dividends.)

[Snow Leopard]

Not to forget about the share buy-back which they haven't even started yet either.

A 40 million dollar share buy back is immaterial for a 5.5 billion dollar company.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

A 40 million dollar share buy back is immaterial for a 5.5 billion dollar company.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Agree with that, basically like a needle in a haystack in terms of having any effect on the SP or anything else for that matter, the special dividend would need to be substantial to be meaningful at the current SP, a few cents is meaningless.

[Beagle]

A 40 million dollar share buy back is immaterial for a 5.5 billion dollar company.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah, Nah, maybe. Its as much a vote of confidence by the directors as anything else. Case in point, (acknowledge the numbers are different) but QAN announced on 25 August 2017 a $373m share buy-back (currently an $11 billion market cap). Only a very small portion of this buy-back has been executed yet their shares have gained from $5.60 at the time to $6.20 today. Coincidence or does it help mop up some of the shareholder stragglers and give a slight undercurrent of positivity and support to the SP ?, you be the judge.

[Snow Leopard]

Yeah, Nah, maybe. Its as much a vote of confidence by the directors as anything else. Case in point, (acknowledge the numbers are different) but QAN announced on 25 August 2017 a $373m share buy-back (currently an $11 billion market cap). Only a very small portion of this buy-back has been executed yet their shares have gained from $5.60 at the time to $6.20 today. Coincidence or does it help mop up some of the shareholder stragglers and give a slight undercurrent of positivity and support to the SP ?, you be the judge.

The evidence of the two prior Qantas buy backs tells you that they have no real effect on the share price.

The usual suspects of fear, greed, optimism, pessimism and even some fundamentals dictate the day to day price.

Meanwhile back at A2 Milk, it is now vying for the No2 spot in my NZX portfolio with Scales.

[Beagle]

The evidence of the two prior Qantas buy backs tells you that they have no real effect on the share price.

The usual suspects of fear, greed, optimism, pessimism and even some fundamentals dictate the day to day price.

Meanwhile back at A2 Milk, it is now vying for the No2 spot in my NZX portfolio with Scales.

I wouldn't be so sure on the former point. The SP buy-back program started in February 2016 when the shares were $3.84 and the shares on issue have reduced by some ~ 10% since then. What I do agree with you on though is that the size of the buy-back if confirmed for ATM is considerably smaller as a percentage of issued shares and all the more so given the rapid SP appreciation. What will be especially interesting is if the directors still propose to proceed with it, (a vote of confidence if they do).
$40m is less than the value of shares that changed hands on the NZX and ASX exchanges in a single day, today.
ATM already my #2 investment position just a fraction behind AIR. If it keeps going the way it is it'll be my #1 investment position by the end of this week.

[Leftfield]

Nice to see both the Beagle and the Paper Tiger on board with the ATM ride and both your portfolio's benefiting.

I'm with the Beagle on the company share purchase argument.... So Yeah/nah.... it's going to be interesting to see what ATM decides, but whatever they decide, we are 'well positioned.'

[hardt]

Think about it, here comes a buyer for 5.2M shares... not significant in itself, in the gigantic ocean of buyers it would add another midsized buyer.

40m div payout would be a solid 5c a share dividend though.. 3% yield for my holding and a lot more for others on here.

[sb9]

Sourced below from HotCopper....expectation of A2M to be included in ASX 100 at Dec rebalance along lines of what was reported the other day in NBR article...

"In this afternoons wrap of the markets in the SMH
Index watch

The A2 Milk Company, which is tipped to enter the top 100 at the December index rebalance, according to broker Wilsons, closed at a record high $6.91, up 3 per cent.
The A2 Milk Company will be into the top 100 at the expense of Vocus or Tatts Group, predicts broker Wilsons ahead of the December index rebalance."

[Beagle]

Sourced below from HotCopper....expectation of A2M to be included in ASX 100 at Dec rebalance along lines of what was reported the other day in NBR article...

"In this afternoons wrap of the markets in the SMH
Index watch

The A2 Milk Company, which is tipped to enter the top 100 at the December index rebalance, according to broker Wilsons, closed at a record high $6.91, up 3 per cent.
The A2 Milk Company will be into the top 100 at the expense of Vocus or Tatts Group, predicts broker Wilsons ahead of the December index rebalance."

Thereby likely garnering much more support than a $40m buy-back lol. The irony isn't lost on me :) All the proof you ever need that momentum often feeds upon itself and creates more momentum.

[sb9]

BOOM!!!! $7 on open at ASX....and 7.05 as I type.

[see weed]

Talk about the quick and the dead. Put an order in yesterday @ 7.35 then ASB securities broke down for a while, so told them I will go out and weed the garden. Came back and they on 7.60 so whipped them up. Same thing happened today, they on 7.55, did some calculations, and 5 mins later had to pay 7.63:eek2:.

[hardt]

BOOM!!!! $7 on open at ASX....and 7.05 as I type.

710 as I type.

Would not be surprised to see it end in red though.

[thestg]

I thought I done well when I sold out in May 2016 for $1.51 with $12,000 (26%) profit.
I bought back in last Thursday @ $6.90 & a few more today @ $7.76.
Hope the growth continues.

[see weed]

376,000 at 7.90, is that you Beags:t_up:.

[Beagle]

376,000 at 7.90, is that you Beags:t_up:.

Yeap I finally decided to raid the kids trust fund and make a small top-up to my existing holding :lol:

[couta1]

Yeap I finally decided to raid the kids trust fund and make a small top-up to my existing holding :lol: I don't like paying top dollar for any share just like I don't like paying a massive tax bill, much happier to get mega divvies with the tax already paid by said company via imputations. PS- I'm starting to scare myself with how conservative I'm becoming.

[Yoda]

The evidence of the two prior Qantas buy backs tells you that they have no real effect on the share price.

The usual suspects of fear, greed, optimism, pessimism and even some fundamentals dictate the day to day price.

Meanwhile back at A2 Milk, it is now vying for the No2 spot in my NZX portfolio with Scales.
Why do you have so much in Scales if you think they will earn less than last year ?

[Snow Leopard]

Why do you have so much in Scales if you think they will earn less than last year ?

I dunno!
Because I look beyond the next result ?


By the way - have you seen a 3 year chart for Scales?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

I dunno!
Because I look beyond the next result ?


By the way - have you seen a 3 year chart for Scales?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT being weary of melt ups ?

[sb9]

Don't be surprised if this one pushes up closer to $8 mark, on back of Bellamy's upgrade announcement this morning across the ditch. Looks like whole IF sector is getting pumped up over there atm.

[Dust]

Not surprised by the recent gains, just came back from recent trip back home to China and people are gifting relatives A2 powder by the boxes (not tins) rather than the usual mooncakes for mid autumn festival. People are throwing money at daigou channels at ridiculous premiums just to make sure their infants are getting the legit product.

[Tee]

Hear hear donkey brayed
Huge bull is hot today
Cast your fear away
And get a car today
A2 milk and honey
Glorious stupendous money
Hear hear me now
Party donkey brayed

[Beagle]

I dunno!
Because I look beyond the next result ?


By the way - have you seen a 3 year chart for Scales?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Not a single mention of Tigers liking apples or A2 milk although at a guess I would say the cubs like their mothers milk which of course is A2 type...thankfully not a single mention of them liking to eat Beagles either, although I swear I have the odd claw mark here and there on my torso...
If they were really hungry they might eat an apple ?


Originally Posted by Dust
Not surprised by the recent gains, just came back from recent trip back home to China and people are gifting relatives A2 powder by the boxes (not tins) rather than the usual mooncakes for mid autumn festival. People are throwing money at daigou channels at ridiculous premiums just to make sure their infants are getting the legit product.
That's it in a nutshell. My understanding, (please correct me if I am wrong) is the former one child policy has lead to a culture where the Chinese people put their kids on a pedestal and only the very best will do for their "little precious".

I expect the ramp up in supply through new drying facilities will be eagerly snapped up and supply will still be the problem going forward with ongoing issues meeting rampant widespread demand.

[silu]

Despite calling this an Australian invention it's good to see A2 milk getting exposure in the American mainstream (FYI this show has a viewership of over 3 million)
https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/a2-milk-draws-consumer-praise-dairy-industry-skepticism/

[whatsup]

Despite calling this an Australian invention it's good to see A2 milk getting exposure in the American mainstream (FYI this show has a viewership of over 3 million)
https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/a2-milk-draws-consumer-praise-dairy-industry-skepticism/

WOW what a great presentation, recommend all people interested in A2 should view.

[Tee]

Looks like the price of ATM and BAL are dropping. And DMP is back in play.

[RTM]

WOW what a great presentation, recommend all people interested in A2 should view.

Enjoyed the video...thanks for posting the link. Does this mean that over time A2 cows will become tablestakes to the industry....i.e. all/most milk will be from A2 cows...and so the advantage that the current products have will be gone ?

[see weed]

Looks like the price of ATM and BAL are dropping. And DMP is back in play.
Not for long, back up again. Got another 4000 at 7.64 45min. ago and hopeful 7.90 by next week;):t_up:.

[see weed]

Is anyone else on Sharetrader still buying a2 shares? or am I the only one left buying at this higher price? And if you are still buying, why are you still buying at this higher price?

[Clints]

I doubled my holding earlier in the week, not a huge holding but it makes me smile

[Leftfield]

Is anyone else on Sharetrader still buying a2 shares? or am I the only one left buying at this higher price? And if you are still buying, why are you still buying at this higher price?

See Weed, I suspect you are 'averaging up' with your average holding price still well below current levels?

Averaging up makes a lot of sense and is a great way to increase your holding and means you are less exposed to the current 'highs.'

Buying at today's prices without the advantage of averaging up is more risky as the ATM price gets higher.

(Disc; ATM is over 50% of my portfolio, so I am busy 'averaging up' elsewhere and spreading the love to other companies like XRO and PPH)

[kizame]

See Weed, I suspect you are 'averaging up' with your average holding price still well below current levels?

Averaging up makes a lot of sense and is a great way to increase your holding and means you are less exposed to the current 'highs.'

Buying at today's prices without the advantage of averaging up is more risky as the ATM price gets higher.

(Disc; ATM is over 50% of my portfolio, so I am busy 'averaging up' elsewhere and spreading the love to other companies like XRO and PPH)

Like your style LF, you picked the movers alright.

[Beagle]

https://a2store.com.au/

A2 now have their own store in Australia. Very good for margins to sell direct :)

[gbogo]

As some (rich) trader once said: “the hardest thing is to be a pig when you are right”.

[Tee]

"Buy the dip".

[Investor]

See Weed, I suspect you are 'averaging up' with your average holding price still well below current levels?

Averaging up makes a lot of sense and is a great way to increase your holding and means you are less exposed to the current 'highs.'

Buying at today's prices without the advantage of averaging up is more risky as the ATM price gets higher.

(Disc; ATM is over 50% of my portfolio, so I am busy 'averaging up' elsewhere and spreading the love to other companies like XRO and PPH)

Interesting spin. Purchasing more of a stock that you own at a high price is INCREASING YOUR EXPOSURE no matter which way you look at it.

[Leftfield]

Interesting spin. Purchasing more of a stock that you own at a high price is INCREASING YOUR EXPOSURE no matter which way you look at it.

Of course.
My response was simply to say that there is a vast difference (and risk or exposure) between those buying at todays prices who haven't previously purchased any ATM before, and those 'averaging up'.

[Tee]

Copied from TMF.

The success of A2 Milk and Bellamy’s Australia rides on their catering to niches in the infant formula market, A2 Milk focusing on A2-protein-based products and Bellamy’s on organic formula products.

Nuchev could soon join these two share market stars cornering the goat-milk-based formula niche market. Nuchev sales are currently split evenly between Australian and Chinese markets, with its products already on shelves in Australian retail stores.

[Tee]

Show time in Nov 2017, a2m vs Lion
1. a2m sues Lion for misleading or deceptive conduct on its labelling.
2. Lion countersues a2m for misleading and deceptive conduct over claims on benefits of its milk and adverse effects of competitors’ milk.
An extract from a newspaper.
Justice Michael Wigney said he felt there was "some scope for scientific debate," noting that "it seems to me to be a mutually self-destructive piece of litigation, in some ways."

[Sideshow Bob]

Diagou's still hard at it.....

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/frantic-shoppers-filmed-snapping-up-scarce-baby-formula-at-coles-store/news-story/b44728f3205526d29e770962679bf508

[QOH]

A2 milk....what the market has missed.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/a2-milk-what-the-market-has-missed

[whatsup]

All time high $7.95 on this most unsettling of days, strange but I guess that its to do with the lower dollar !

[bull....]

All time high $7.95 on this most unsettling of days, strange but I guess that its to do with the lower dollar !

lower dollar , all the exporters look they are taking off

[see weed]

All time high $7.95 on this most unsettling of days, strange but I guess that its to do with the lower dollar !
Yeah atm just keeps on keeping on. Funny how a2m is down 6c and atm is up 6c at the time I write this.

[sb9]

Well, if A2M on ASX recovers to be flat or up few cents, we'll push thro' $8 mark here. That'll make a for nice long weekend...:t_up:

[see weed]

Well, if A2M on ASX recovers to be flat or up few cents, we'll push thro' $8 mark here. That'll make a for nice long weekend...:t_up:
Sure will. Grabbed another 5000 this morning for 7.82. Trying to make up for lost time from 2.50. Have bought 14 blocks of shares from 6/10/17 from 7.10 to 7.82, trying to get in on the dips;). Still got another couple of blocks to go before it hits $8 but will wait for the big dippers:). Any other dippers around here? Have to admit, was a bit scared getting back in at 7.10, but getting better as time goes on.

[Beagle]

Happy holding what I have mate, should go through $8 soon on the lower $Kiwi.

[whatsup]

$8.00 !! well done

[Beagle]

Confirmed break above $8 still to come though. Bubbly is in the fridge chilling off, will be nice to crack it open this evening and enjoy.

[see weed]

Confirmed break above $8 still to come though. Bubbly is in the fridge chilling off, will be nice to crack it open this evening and enjoy.
Hit $8 for a few minutes, but am a bit scared to top up, might wait for next dip. Yeah, might do the same, crack a cuppa tea, up $47k for 2 weeks not too bad in this political climate:).

[Leftfield]

Hit $8 for a few minutes, but am a bit scared to top up, might wait for next dip.

Hint: watch the 10 day moving average, it has given good signals over the last 12 months. Tho Bollinger bands are getting a tab stretched.
Disc; Not topping up but watching with interest.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hit $8 for a few minutes, but am a bit scared to top up, might wait for next dip. Yeah, might do the same, crack a cuppa tea, $47k for 2 weeks not too bad in this political climate:).

I'm building a house, so the A2 climb is coming in very handy as the missus eyes up all the bells and whistles, and the builder is considering his options for a new motorbike to go with his new ute.

Unfortunately we haven't put in a post-election apocalyptic bunker. ;)

[Beagle]

Hey Seaweed Couta1 would be proud of you. Even he's too timid to buy at this level so kudos to you mate.
Disc / Rating HHH (Hound happy holding)

[see weed]

I notice the 30,000 share masseur back in action this afternoon. Seems to start when ASX opens. Am watching my 5, 10, 30 day average closely. Someone drank my Bollinger and won't be topping up until next week. Come on you guys n gals, there is still enough time to get in before it hits $9:).

[Sideshow Bob]

Further evidence......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11935724

[see weed]

Pak n Save Royal Oak now selling Fresha Valley 2L A2 milk for $5.19c. That is 29c dearer than Countdown Onehunga. But is good to see a2 spreading their wings, also did a bit of promoting by the milk stand. Lot of people never heard of a2, so tell them to google it. And the other good thing is, you can buy shares in the company, look only 7dolla90, and with that, the little lady very excited say,I buy share with a2 as she walk away:D.

[RGR367]

Further evidence......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11935724

This was on the tv3 news last night too. Informational and a good free advert for the a2 milk. Hit the $10 mark and I might sell everything I've got :t_up:

[see weed]

This was on the tv3 news last night too. Informational and a good free advert for the a2 milk. Hit the $10 mark and I might sell everything I've got :t_up:
Or you could wait till $11 and make extra 10%;).

[couta1]

Or you could wait till $11 and make extra 10%;). Or the price may get cut in half and he may lose 50%, remember profit in hand is always better than profit on paper.

[Beagle]

The trend is your friend until the bend in the end.
With such brilliant looking ongoing TA signals why anyone would sell now is beyond my comprehension.

Regarding the further evidence it would appear that the market likes this, currently trading on the ASX at $A7.22 = $N.Z.8.12 (at 0.8887 exchange rate).

[see weed]

Or the price may get cut in half and he may lose 50%, remember profit in hand is always better than profit on paper.
Yes that's right, and you can buy twice as many at 50% discount $4. Would you buy more at $4?;) But if they go up 50% to $12, would you buy more at $8?. Not too worried, have 180k wiggle room on this one:).

[couta1]

Yes that's right, and you can buy twice as many at 50% discount $4. Would you buy more at $4?;) But if they go up 50% to $12, would you buy more at $8?. Not too worried, have 180k wiggle room on this one:). Yes I would buy an XOS holding back at $4 but not at current prices, I don't remount horses that have bolted unless they pull up lame.

[Snow Leopard]

...remember profit in hand is always better than profit on paper.


...I don't remount horses that have bolted unless they pull up lame.

Do not cry over spilled milk

:) :)
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Closed in Aust at $A7.25 an all time high ~ $8.13 Kiwi. Should be a good open on the N.Z. bourse tomorrow morning.

[JeremyALD]

Closed in Aust at $A7.25 an all time high ~ $8.13 Kiwi. Should be a good open on the N.Z. bourse tomorrow morning.

Do you see much more legs in this Beagle? I have a small holding now but want to top up at a cheaper level but never seems to happen lol

[winner69]

Do you see much more legs in this Beagle? I have a small holding now but want to top up at a cheaper level but never seems to happen lol

It'll be 10 bucks sooner than later ...maybe even by Christmas

If I was wanting to top up I'd do it now .....jeez talking myself into selling Heartland and buying more of these beauties.

[Snow Leopard]

Do you see much more legs in this Beagle? I have a small holding now but want to top up at a cheaper level but never seems to happen lol

It'll be back to $4 sooner than later ...maybe even by Christmas

If I was wanting to sell out I'd do it now .....jeez talking myself into buying Heartland and selling more of these milk duds.

[couta1]

It'll be back to $4 sooner than later ...maybe even by Christmas

If I was wanting to sell out I'd do it now .....jeez talking myself into buying Heartland and selling more of these milk duds. Nothing like bringing a bit of balance to the force. PS-Nuke button could be pushed by Christmas.

[Snow Leopard]

Nothing like bringing a bit of balance to the force. PS-Nuke button could be pushed by Christmas.

I am due to spend Xmas/New Year in Okinawa. So I am hoping it will still be there then!

[see weed]

Do you see much more legs in this Beagle? I have a small holding now but want to top up at a cheaper level but never seems to happen lol
Yes same here. I thought that way at $1.30, $2.50, $3.50 4.60, 5.00,6.50 and by the time it got to $7, got sick of waiting for drop so jumped in, and still had to pay 7.10, 7.18, 7.16, 7.36, 7.42, 7.35, 7.60, 7.61, 7.63, 7.73, 7.62, 7.64, 7.84 and 7.82.:eek2: Don't try this at home. You could get burnt. Haven't quite reached my target yet, but will soon.

[Gunny]

I see there is a sell order for 15000 at $15410 per share they will probably take until next Christmas.

I got back in at $3.35 but with my small budget only have 3000 shares. Also was thinking as to whether to sell down my 15000 Heartland to top up. Have been thinking too long me thinks.

Gunny

[Beagle]

Do you see much more legs in this Beagle? I have a small holding now but want to top up at a cheaper level but never seems to happen lol

It seems expensive on fundmental's, current year PE is late 30's but I think they're building a great global business, (business's that build a great global franchise almost always seem expensive as they go up based on fundmental's so its definitely a case of watch the TA with this one) and am happy to keep holding as long as the technical's suggest its wise to do so. The other thing is I think we could see the currency move materially lower under the new coalition Government so there's tailwinds there in my opinion.

[Gunny]

All right did it. Sold some Heartland and OCA both at profit and bought 2000 more A2 at 807. I see they reached 810 2 seconds later.


Gunny

[Beagle]

Disc: I tried to add a few more at $8.06 this morning but top gun gunny beat me to it and the open match was $8.07.
Started up a modest position in Synlait milk this morning instead.

[King1212]

I would probably prefer SML with 1.5b market cap and revenue the same with ATM...but ATM is almost 6b market cap. But again.....I have no doubt with ATM..it is just too expensive now...

[hardt]

I would probably prefer SML with 1.5b market cap and revenue the same with ATM...but ATM is almost 6b market cap. But again.....I have no doubt with ATM..it is just too expensive now...

Expensive now, Expensive tomorrow.
Looks like the "current value" continues to tailgate the share price, don't see this changing anytime soon.

Been snapping up Synlait by the bucket loads over these past couple weeks... cheap in my books.

[King1212]

yes..decided to sell some other stocks n get in SML..with the A2 research out....I think their milk powder is going to be white gold. If ATM selling the milk well, then SML will be better because they are the producer....

[couta1]

Expensive now, Expensive tomorrow.
Looks like the "current value" continues to tailgate the share price, don't see this changing anytime soon.

Been snapping up Synlait by the bucket loads over these past couple weeks... cheap in my books. Cheap, but you could have bought SML for $3 around a year ago and ATM for $2. I find it amusing how people are happy to pay up to 4 times more than a year ago.

[Beagle]

Yeap the hound is sniffing slightly better value with SML than ATM but happy to have a bob or three each way :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Presume next update will be at the AGM - about a month away?

[Leftfield]

Cheap, but you could have bought SML for $3 around a year ago and ATM for $2. I find it amusing how people are happy to pay up to 4 times more than a year ago.

Sour Grapes Couta? Weren't you saying ATM was overpriced a year ago?

Meanwhile in Welly, our local Countdown all sold out of ATM today, while other milks languish. Seems word is getting out.

[couta1]

Sour Grapes Couta? Weren't you saying ATM was overpriced a year ago?

Meanwhile in Welly, our local Countdown all sold out of ATM today, while other milks languish. Seems word is getting out. Your mixing me up with Snoopy, I was a holder of ATM up until $4 odd.

[hardt]

Cheap, but you could have bought SML for $3 around a year ago and ATM for $2. I find it amusing how people are happy to pay up to 4 times more than a year ago.

How else do you expect a stock to rise but for people to pay more than they would have yesterday.

I bought back in December, sold half in September and have buying back what I sold this month as I value SML at $12 currently.

[couta1]

How else do you expect a stock to rise but for people to pay more than they would have yesterday.

I bought back in December, sold half in September and have buying back what I sold this month as I value SML at $12 currently. What I'm trying to highlight that talk about cheap is all relative.

[dobby41]

Meanwhile in Welly, our local Countdown all sold out of ATM today, while other milks languish. Seems word is getting out.

Other milk languishing?
I suspect this is over stating things a bit. I doubt that your supermarket dedicates the same space to ATM and 'other'.
I also suspect that the 'other' is restocked more regularly so not sure how you would tell that it is languishing.
Maybe a gross exageration for effect.

[Schrodinger]

Considering they put the additive in (%?) people may want to pay for better milk. Anyone know if they put that weird permate in their stuff in A2?

I might start buying it if they dont.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/have-you-ever-wondered-whats-really-in-glass-milk

ok might start buying it: https://a2milk.com.au/faq/does-a2-milk-contain-permeate/

Mum knows best: http://www.essentialbaby.com.au/forums/index.php?/topic/997343-a2-milk-vs-permeate-freeare-they-the-same/

[suse]

does A2 make cream????

[misterx]

There she goes off again.. Will a2m take over the world or is it just a bubble. Who knows but the hype is definitely there

[Schrodinger]

What does the US market look like:

2 reasons
1. If it has potential they will be a takeover target
2. If they go it alone there could be huge growth

I assume they need their own herd in US or is it just powder?

[couta1]

There she goes off again.. Will a2m take over the world or is it just a bubble. Who knows but the hype is definitely there Leaving this thread with a Buffett quote, "Be Greedy when others are Fearful and Fearful when others are Greedy" I'll let you SUM things up for yourself.

[Ggcc]

What does the US market look like:


2 reasons
1. If it has potential they will be a takeover target
2. If they go it alone there could be huge growth

I assume they need their own herd in US or is it just powder?

A2 protein milk producing cows are something difficult to find in Aussie/NZ and found more in the US and Europe (I read that somewhere). So our future looks A2 ok 😀

[misterx]

Leaving this thread with a Buffett quote, "Be Greedy when others are Fearful and Fearful when others are Greedy" I'll let you SUM things up for yourself.
Thank you couta. A fitting quote we can all relate.. I must resist the temptation to sell

[Clints]

Thank you couta. A fitting quote we can all relate.. I must resist the temptation to sell
Must admit I had to take myself out to a café for a coffee during that little run, temptation to sell was strong in this one.

[Beagle]

The hound going for a walk to cool off too...can get a little warm under the collar with all the excitement.
Great saying Couta1 and thanks for the reminder.

Another good one a poster on here, (sorry cannot remember the author) made quite a while back is also one to keep in mind regarding the amount one trades and brokerage.
"Investing can be a bit like a bar of soap, the more you rub it the less you have".

[see weed]

Leaving this thread with a Buffett quote, "Be Greedy when others are Fearful and Fearful when others are Greedy" I'll let you SUM things up for yourself.
Don't leave us couta, we need your balance. I am also greedy and fearful, but the higher it goes the less fearful I get. Was hoping to get to 100k shares before it hit $8, but didn't quite make it. Still happy with what I got, portfolio up another 30k today:t_up:.

[sb9]

a2 Milk™ and lactose intolerance study video of University of Auckland published on 23/10/2017 as reported in the media.

https://youtu.be/TICBqGJRCaA

[winner69]

It'll be back to $4 sooner than later ...maybe even by Christmas

If I was wanting to sell out I'd do it now .....jeez talking myself into buying Heartland and selling more of these milk duds.

I’ve disregarded your advice me old mate Tiger

Even put SUM money into this milk dud.

Certainly 10 bucks by Christmas - maybe even before.

[sb9]

Thanks for sharing Hardt.

Here's my summary of ATM FY18 SP guesstimates to date;
BP Brokers - $A5.85
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

Going to be interesting to see where this one goes.

I think all our valuations and predictions turn out to be total rubbish as it stands currently....did we all meant to say 2017 instead of 2018 ;):p

[Leftfield]

I think all our valuations and predictions turn out to be total rubbish as it stands currently....did we all meant to say 2017 instead of 2018 ;):p

Yep I love being this side of wrong!

[t.rexjr]

a2 Milk™ and lactose intolerance study video of University of Auckland published on 23/10/2017 as reported in the media.

https://youtu.be/TICBqGJRCaA

The 'up next' presentation after that one you posted was proper interesting! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UDxweS8fZU&feature=youtu.be#t=1678.9393711

[winner69]

I think all our valuations and predictions turn out to be total rubbish as it stands currently....did we all meant to say 2017 instead of 2018 ;):p


What's Forbars latest valuation /target

They gurus in this area

[couta1]

I’ve disregarded your advice me old mate Tiger

Even put SUM money into this milk dud.

Certainly 10 bucks by Christmas - maybe even before. Hey winner, I didn't think you were a bubble investor, but then I remembered your price calls on Xro a few years ago. PS-Couldnt help myself so had to put up another post.

[Leftfield]

What's Forbars latest valuation /target

They gurus in this area

Seeing how our forecasts are now too conservative, how about this one from Hot Copper......

"Sales doubling again over next 3 years or 24% pa. Currently growing at over 50% so may be faster. EBITDA margins 35% means EBITDA of $700m. Put that on 25x = $17.5 Billion. Add cash of $1b = $18.5b. Divide by number of shares = $26 a share over next 2-3 years. Probably sooner given growth is faster."

[Snow Leopard]

I call $100 a share before I return to NZ (currently scheduled for April 2021)

[Sideshow Bob]

Seeing how our forecasts are now too conservative, how about this one from Hot Copper......

"Sales doubling again over next 3 years or 24% pa. Currently growing at over 50% so may be faster. EBITDA margins 35% means EBITDA of $700m. Put that on 25x = $17.5 Billion. Add cash of $1b = $18.5b. Divide by number of shares = $26 a share over next 2-3 years. Probably sooner given growth is faster."

Can have mine now for $25......

[RupertBear]

Don't leave us couta, we need your balance. I am also greedy and fearful, but the higher it goes the less fearful I get. Was hoping to get to 100k shares before it hit $8, but didn't quite make it. Still happy with what I got, portfolio up another 30k today:t_up:.

OMG I had to read that twice to make sure I read it right! 100k shares :eek2: WOW! Thats amazing! Makes my wee holding of 3,000 a bit pathetic but I bought in around $3 so I am still pretty happy :D

[hardt]

Seeing how our forecasts are now too conservative, how about this one from Hot Copper......

"Sales doubling again over next 3 years or 24% pa. Currently growing at over 50% so may be faster. EBITDA margins 35% means EBITDA of $700m. Put that on 25x = $17.5 Billion. Add cash of $1b = $18.5b. Divide by number of shares = $26 a share over next 2-3 years. Probably sooner given growth is faster."

Reading that made me physically ill...

[winner69]

Hey winner, I didn't think you were a bubble investor, but then I remembered your price calls on Xro a few years ago. PS-Couldnt help myself so had to put up another post.

Purely on fundamentals this one ....not a bubble ...that's AIR)

And I was right with Xero at the time eh -- 40 bucks plus was ridiculous

[Beagle]

Reading that made me physically ill...

lol its hard to keep all four paws on the ground with this one. This hound came up with a neat trick to help with that today and resorted to revaluing them down to cost price in my portfolio spreadsheet to try and avoid excessive tail wagging and heart palpitations :)

[Snow Leopard]

OMG I had to read that twice to make sure I read it right! 100k shares :eek2: WOW! Thats amazing! Makes my wee holding of 3,000 a bit pathetic but I bought in around $3 so I am still pretty happy :D

Probably he is stretching the truth a little and actual only owns 14 shares (see here (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited&p=689762&viewfull=1#post689762)), each bought individually. :p

[Beagle]

I've met seeweed a few times and have no reason to disbelieve him and think he has more than a "few quid"'s worth but then again on the other hand my personal belief is talking numbers on here can be a little frustrating for the young ones which is why I prefer to talk portfolio allocation percentage these days. (I have about 8% of my portfolio in ATM at present). Took a new position in Synlait milk this morning and might add to that or A2 on any pullback.

[couta1]

I've met seeweed a few times and have no reason to disbelieve him and think he has more than a "few quid"'s worth but then again on the other hand my personal belief is talking numbers on here can be a little frustrating for the young ones which is why I prefer to talk portfolio allocation percentage these days. (I have about 8% of my portfolio in ATM at present). Took a new position in Synlait milk this morning and might add to that or A2 on any pullback. I prefer to use either the clothing size system or the percentage system. PS-I believe see weed, he seems consistent and straight up to me, oh and very enthusiastic to boot.

[RupertBear]

I've met seeweed a few times and have no reason to disbelieve him and think he has more than a "few quid"'s worth but then again on the other hand my personal belief is talking numbers on here can be a little frustrating for the young ones which is why I prefer to talk portfolio allocation percentage these days. (I have about 8% of my portfolio in ATM at present). Took a new position in Synlait milk this morning and might add to that or A2 on any pullback.

I hope I am one of the "young ones" you are referring to Mr Beagle :D I dont think PT was questioning Seeweeds holding, think the Tiger was just pulling this little bears leg! :)

[Beagle]

I prefer to use either the clothing size system or the percentage system. PS-I believe see weed, he seems consistent and straight up to me, oh and very enthusiastic to boot.
Yes good system mate. I guess I have a M for medium sized holding :)


I hope I am one of the "young ones" you are referring to Mr Beagle :D I dont think PT was questioning Seeweeds holding, think the Tiger was just pulling this little bears leg! :)
Yes you are a friendly young very likeable bear my friend :)

[Ted2]

Yes same here. I thought that way at $1.30, $2.50, $3.50 4.60, 5.00,6.50 and by the time it got to $7, got sick of waiting for drop so jumped in, and still had to pay 7.10, 7.18, 7.16, 7.36, 7.42, 7.35, 7.60, 7.61, 7.63, 7.73, 7.62, 7.64, 7.84 and 7.82.:eek2: Don't try this at home. You could get burnt. Haven't quite reached my target yet, but will soon.


Geez that's some hefty brokerage fees!!

[Ted2]

I've met seeweed a few times and have no reason to disbelieve him and think he has more than a "few quid"'s worth but then again on the other hand my personal belief is talking numbers on here can be a little frustrating for the young ones which is why I prefer to talk portfolio allocation percentage these days. (I have about 8% of my portfolio in ATM at present). Took a new position in Synlait milk this morning and might add to that or A2 on any pullback.

Some would say unfortunately, but I'm sticking with FORTUNATELY that ATM is over 80% of my portfolio. It may have a bit to do with the fact I have a number of dogs (dead ones I think as they never get up) but it's been hard to jump off a bullet train. Actually I did offload some baggage at 2.25 to take some profit and been regretting it ever since (sort of)!

It might be risky but what the hell was a man to do???

[Beagle]

Some would say unfortunately, but I'm sticking with FORTUNATELY that ATM is over 80% of my portfolio. It may have a bit to do with the fact I have a number of dogs (dead ones I think as they never get up) but it's been hard to jump off a bullet train. Actually I did offload some baggage at 2.25 to take some profit and been regretting it ever since (sort of)!

It might be risky but what the hell was a man to do???

I dunno mate, you tell me. Just 38 posts since joining in May 2002 over 15 years ago, its not a crime to share your opinion more frequently :)

[Investor]

a2 Milk™ and lactose intolerance studyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TICBqGJRCaA

[couta1]

Geez that's some hefty brokerage fees!! I don't know why people worry about paying brokerage so much, it's the cost of doing business, it's like worrying about using petrol giving your hot rod a run.

[777]

I don't know why people worry about paying brokerage so much, it's the cost of doing business, it's like worrying about using petrol giving your hot rod a run.


I agree. It is the same as the masses worrying about Kiwisaver fees as if that is the most important thing in investing..

Being as old as I am I can remember when the norm was 2.5% brokerage. .2% doesn't even register.

[sb9]

My take for the recent price kick in is due to lower fx rate for NZD caused mainly due to formation of new govt. and the new study re milk intolerance both of these events which incidentally happened over the past weekend.

Another futuristic event is being priced in is the impact of singles day event in Nov or 11/11. All in all makes for an interesting ASM coming up on 21st Nov, wonder where's the venue going to be this time around which is still to be announced.

[see weed]

My take for the recent price kick in is due to lower fx rate for NZD caused mainly due to formation of new govt. and the new study re milk intolerance both of these events which incidentally happened over the past weekend.

Another futuristic event is being priced in is the impact of singles day event in Nov or 11/11. All in all makes for an interesting ASM coming up on 21st Nov, wonder where's the venue going to be this time around which is still to be announced.
From memory I think it was Sydney last year. Have been to two Agm's in Auckland 2014 and 2015 and remember asking Mr. Bab. if he will be bringing out a2 chocolate milk. It will sell like hot cakes at an AIR AGM afternoon tea:t_up:.

[see weed]

8.50 now, wish it would slow down. Need to buy another 15,000 before it gets to 9dolla:eek2:. $8.10c new low now?

[hardt]

risk adjusted fair value is still sitting on $7

The euphoria worries me a little bit though as the stock has been so tightly wound around continued outperformance... don't want any fast action erosion of that 420% return :)

[gbogo]

I'm wary too. seems to be knee-jerk reaction to lower NZD but that can change in a few minutes. (at 0.6900 vs USD, we've already reached strong previous support areas). However, despite the excitement over this stock, I think many people (on here as well as institutions and the general share-buying public), have not got onboard yet, which suggests some room to keep running. I think the level of public awareness is about the same as when XRO was $2-$3...

[Beagle]

risk adjusted fair value is still sitting on $7

The euphoria worries me a little bit though as the stock has been so tightly wound around continued outperformance... don't want any fast action erosion of that 420% return :)

Just do your spreadsheet portfolio valuation including ATM at cost price like I am doing, that sort of creative accounting helps keep you grounded :)

[Ted2]

I dunno mate, you tell me. Just 38 posts since joining in May 2002 over 15 years ago, its not a crime to share your opinion more frequently :)

Not sure if I'm being got at or not here? A whole lot of my posts disappeared ages ago, but no I'm not an avid poster. Mainly because I haven't had much of interest to talk about until now. I prefer my A2 numbers to keep going up rather than my post numbers! And with most topics, I find other many other's opinions far more knowledgeable than mine would have been. Many posters are much appreciated (by myself and others I'm sure) as they provide insight and knowledge of which we may have otherwise been unaware.

To answer then - it might be risky but it's gone from about 18% of my portfolio to 80% and I'll keep running with it for the time being. Many posters have appeared to think that anything over 10-15% is getting risky so I must be in uber-risk territory - but whilst it outshines everything else I'll hold on. The rules say I'm silly - the value says not.

[winner69]

Not sure if I'm being got at or not here? A whole lot of my posts disappeared ages ago, but no I'm not an avid poster. Mainly because I haven't had much of interest to talk about until now. I prefer my A2 numbers to keep going up rather than my post numbers! And with most topics, I find other many other's opinions far more knowledgeable than mine would have been. Many posters are much appreciated (by myself and others I'm sure) as they provide insight and knowledge of which we may have otherwise been unaware.

To answer then - it might be risky but it's gone from about 18% of my portfolio to 80% and I'll keep running with it for the time being. Many posters have appeared to think that anything over 10-15% is getting risky so I must be in uber-risk territory - but whilst it outshines everything else I'll hold on. The rules say I'm silly - the value says not.

you not silly mate

what % of your portfolio will atm be when it hots 10 bucks in next month or so?

[see weed]

Not sure if I'm being got at or not here? A whole lot of my posts disappeared ages ago, but no I'm not an avid poster. Mainly because I haven't had much of interest to talk about until now. I prefer my A2 numbers to keep going up rather than my post numbers! And with most topics, I find other many other's opinions far more knowledgeable than mine would have been. Many posters are much appreciated (by myself and others I'm sure) as they provide insight and knowledge of which we may have otherwise been unaware.

To answer then - it might be risky but it's gone from about 18% of my portfolio to 80% and I'll keep running with it for the time being. Many posters have appeared to think that anything over 10-15% is getting risky so I must be in uber-risk territory - but whilst it outshines everything else I'll hold on. The rules say I'm silly - the value says not.
Good on you mate, welcome to the 80% plus club. Just topped up at 8.40 this morning. $9 here we come and $10 by AGM :t_up:.

[gbogo]

Motley Oz earlier this week saying HOLD: https://www.fool.com.au/2017/10/23/heres-why-i-own-shares-in-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia/

[Beagle]

Not sure if I'm being got at or not here? A whole lot of my posts disappeared ages ago, but no I'm not an avid poster. Mainly because I haven't had much of interest to talk about until now. I prefer my A2 numbers to keep going up rather than my post numbers! And with most topics, I find other many other's opinions far more knowledgeable than mine would have been. Many posters are much appreciated (by myself and others I'm sure) as they provide insight and knowledge of which we may have otherwise been unaware.

To answer then - it might be risky but it's gone from about 18% of my portfolio to 80% and I'll keep running with it for the time being. Many posters have appeared to think that anything over 10-15% is getting risky so I must be in uber-risk territory - but whilst it outshines everything else I'll hold on. The rules say I'm silly - the value says not.

Didn't mean anything by that comment, was just curious as to your length of tenure here and number of posts.

[Ted2]

you not silly mate

what % of your portfolio will atm be when it hots 10 bucks in next month or so?

Too high!
But sneaking to 85! Again - would I be happy? You bet!

[couta1]

Too high!
But sneaking to 85! Again - would I be happy? You bet! No such thing as too high a percentage in one stock if you really believe the story, not putting more than 10% in any one stock us just a concept rather than a rule IMO, remember even rules are made to be broken.

[see weed]

Is anyone else on Sharetrader still buying a2 shares? or am I the only one left buying at this higher price? And if you are still buying, why are you still buying at this higher price?
Good Morning Battlers. 13 days ago, in the 7.60s. This train just keeps on going, It doesn't stop at stations, it just slows down a bit so you have to jump onto the roof from an over bridge to catch it:D How far today 8.50 or 8.60? Congrats to all on board, relax and enjoy the trip. Next lunch stop folks is at $9 :t_up:.

[gbogo]

not sure how relevant but large local broker puts Underperform note out on SML today. target $6 v $8.09 current market. thinks contracts with A2 Milk will not sustain current margins. maybe that's good for A2?

[hardt]

not sure how relevant but large local broker puts Underperform note out on SML today. target $6 v $8.09 current market. thinks contracts with A2 Milk will not sustain current margins. maybe that's good for A2?

Which broker?

[winner69]

Which broker?

A local one

[suse]

Good Morning Battlers. 13 days ago, in the 7.60s. This train just keeps on going, It doesn't stop at stations, it just slows down a bit so you have to jump onto the roof from an over bridge to catch it:D How far today 8.50 or 8.60? Congrats to all on board, relax and enjoy the trip. Next lunch stop folks is at $9 :t_up:.

I love this enthusiasm. Makes me want to stay on the train and admire the view

[King1212]

not sure how relevant but large local broker puts Underperform note out on SML today. target $6 v $8.09 current market. thinks contracts with A2 Milk will not sustain current margins. maybe that's good for A2?

that what broker said too with ATM...I sold out under $3 and now just keep seeing ATM going up....can not trust broker!!!!!!

Frosty barr said ARVIDA target $1.51...lucky sold out $1.33. never trust broker...always trust the fundamental, the trend and own research. With 1.7m babies in china born last year alone....so u make your own decision.

[Beagle]

that what broker said too with ATM...I sold out under $3 and now just keep seeing ATM going up....can not trust broker!!!!!!

Frosty barr said ARVIDA target $1.51...lucky sold out $1.33. never trust broker...always trust the fundamental, the trend and own research. With 1.7m babies in china born last year alone....so u make your own decision.

Can you please tell us a bit more about how they relaxed the rules from one baby to having two ? Does that apply to everyone and are young Chinese couples really responding to this change ?
How many babies born per annum before they relaxed the rules ? When were the rules relaxed ?
Thanks in anticipation of your assistance.

[King1212]

according to the latest news..they will not relaxe the rule as the aging population is too high...I read a bbc short video news....the demand of milks and other food are high demand. That what the Chinese are buying all OZ companies and infrastructure....

[dumbfounded]

Is anyone else on Sharetrader still buying a2 shares? or am I the only one left buying at this higher price? And if you are still buying, why are you still buying at this higher price?

Yes, just bought 10K @ 8.10 24/10 ...just following your jovial self.-:t_up: averaging up on a good story but then I got on and off the train frequently to stretch my legs.

[sb9]

Yes, just bought 10K @ 8.10 24/10 ...just following your jovial self.-:t_up: averaging up on a good story but then I got on and off the train frequently to stretch my legs.

So does Blake Waltrip, CEO of US operations...

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/309220

Albeit a small parcel of 8,500 shares through on market purchase and paid $7.88 a piece.

Another vote of confidence in my books...

[Dust]

Factoring in the child policies in China is a bit a stretch imo....the type of consumers that are after these products mainly young - middle aged professionals, they aren't going to have more than 1 kid even if the govt paid them to do it...

[gbogo]

that what broker said too with ATM...I sold out under $3 and now just keep seeing ATM going up....can not trust broker!!!!!!

Frosty barr said ARVIDA target $1.51...lucky sold out $1.33. never trust broker...always trust the fundamental, the trend and own research. With 1.7m babies in china born last year alone....so u make your own decision.

I wouldn't suggest for a moment, that blindly following a broker's research is a sensible strategy. However, it is useful to help gauge what the sentiment toward a stock is. I seldom care about the fundamental value of a stock but I'm very interested to know what other people think that value is. In this case, the broker does also have some influence with (active) funds and it is fund buying that has pushed SML and ATM up where they are now - not individuals like me, anyway.

[Beagle]

Factoring in the child policies in China is a bit a stretch imo....the type of consumers that are after these products mainly young - middle aged professionals, they aren't going to have more than 1 kid even if the govt paid them to do it...

Interesting how you can read the minds of so many hundreds of millions of young Chinese couples...I wish Beagle's were bestowed with such amazing psychic powers.

[dumbfounded]

Factoring in the child policies in China is a bit a stretch imo....the type of consumers that are after these products mainly young - middle aged professionals, they aren't going to have more than 1 kid even if the govt paid them to do it...

On the other hand, they have been prohibited by law to have more than 1 child and now that this is no longer the case, some of the rich (middle class and above) would definitely want more and they are the ones who can afford A2 milk.

[t.rexjr]

not sure how relevant but large local broker puts Underperform note out on SML today. target $6 v $8.09 current market. thinks contracts with A2 Milk will not sustain current margins. maybe that's good for A2?

Would have thought current margins would only increase once the new plant is commissioned. Any day now...

[hardt]

Would have thought current margins would only increase once the new plant is commissioned. Any day now...

Margins generally decrease when the kind of volume growth forecasted for Synlait comes through, it is all part of the growth phase.

A2M margins can only increase where already high margin product can be supplied on such a scale.

Synlait can ride A2 milks success all the way into the next decade.

Revenue is likely to double for Synlait every 4-5 years. I personally am not bothered by the 1-2% marginal contraction that is being forecasted by this broker over a period where revenues are growing at 20-30% pa.

[gbogo]

Margins generally decrease when monstrous volume growth comes through, it is part of the growth phase.

A2M margins can only increase where already high margin product can be supplied on such a scale.

Synlait can ride A2 milks success all the way into the next decade.

my read of the analysis is that it is saying SML is more susceptible to being commoditised. As A2 does more volume, they will be able to negotiate better deals with their supplier - SML. That is potentially not so great for SML but good for A2, as if they can retain high margins on sales and reduce their costs, bottom-line is going to look great. Perhaps I am being too simplistic.

[Beagle]

my read of the analysis is that it is saying SML is more susceptible to being commoditised. As A2 does more volume, they will be able to negotiate better deals with their supplier - SML. That is potentially not so great for SML but good for A2, as if they can retain high margins on sales and reduce their costs, bottom-line is going to look great. Perhaps I am being too simplistic.

Possibly so, whichever way you slice and dice it this is a classic symbiotic relationship and what's good for the goose is good for the gander I would have thought. Merger at some stage anyone ?

[King1212]

my read of the analysis is that it is saying SML is more susceptible to being commoditised. As A2 does more volume, they will be able to negotiate better deals with their supplier - SML. That is potentially not so great for SML but good for A2, as if they can retain high margins on sales and reduce their costs, bottom-line is going to look great. Perhaps I am being too simplistic.


I read their presentation....I like their strategies. SML also worked together with New hope nutritional.

[Tee]

ATM
Dependent on Synlait to produce canned IF for the Chinese market (Chinese label).
Has a 5 year supply agreement with Synlait.
Have enough cash to buy a distressed milk canning factory.
Synlait
Will grow as ATM grows.
Has other sources of revenue and customers.
Poised for exports to China.

[mondograss]

ATM
Dependent on Synlait to produce canned IF for the Chinese market (Chinese label).
Has a 5 year supply agreement with Synlait.
Have enough cash to buy a distressed milk canning factory.
Synlait
Will grow as ATM grows.
Has other sources of revenue and customers.
Poised for exports to China.

You forgot:
ATM
Owns 8.2% of Synlait

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm interested to know how many ATM holders have also bought SML and whats your ratio. I always considered SML to be a less risky investment which fitted my comfort zone more than ATM. Its been my best performing stock but obviously if I had have bought ATM instead, I would have done much better.

[tzbang]

I was a holder of SML (no ATM) since $4.20 one of the first stocks I'd ever owned. Watched it drift for so long seemingly not gaining attention that I thought they should. When it got up to $4.90 I stupidly put in a sell order at $5.20 ...not really expecting it to trigger.. and then boom. Thing is, I never expected that the market was waiting for the Chinese regulatory approval - there was never much talk of anyone expecting them not to get it. So I assumed it was already factored into the price. Which was a mistake. So wasn't fun watching the rocket finally take off after I stepped off it. Ended up buying back into both SML and ATM equally around $7.45.

[King1212]

ATM and SML are good companies. With the demand of IF and A2 milk..both will do well in the next couple years.
But I believe, SML is better value than ATM. As SML is only 1.4b market cap with almost $750m revenue. plenty room to go..i reconk. AGM is in 4 weeks time. might see sp at $10?

[Sideshow Bob]

I always considered SML to be a less risky investment which fitted my comfort zone more than ATM.

Suppose it depends to what degree you consider SML's fortunes are tied to A2M, and their relationship. To a degree they are probably mutually reliant and growing more so every day as they both grow/invest.

[sb9]

ATM and SML are good companies. With the demand of IF and A2 milk..both will do well in the next couple years.
But I believe, SML is better value than ATM. As SML is only 1.4b market cap with almost $750m revenue. plenty room to go..i reconk. AGM is in 4 weeks time. might see sp at $10?

Yeah if it did touch $10, ATM that is that'll be huge milestone....have been resisting the temptation to sell part of my holding (1/10 th or so) since it touched $5 mark....I think I leave them untouched for now.

[winner69]

ATM and SML are good companies. With the demand of IF and A2 milk..both will do well in the next couple years.
But I believe, SML is better value than ATM. As SML is only 1.4b market cap with almost $750m revenue. plenty room to go..i reconk. AGM is in 4 weeks time. might see sp at $10?

Pretty certain it’ll be 10 bucks sooner or than later

[King1212]

both companies above $10??

[see weed]

Pretty certain it’ll be 10 bucks sooner or than later
Noticed the a2 train stopped for a morning tea break yesterday or was it an early lunch break?

[sb9]

Just to digress a bit, putting Amazon latest earnings into perspective which was huge beat on earnings of actual 52c EPs vs 3c expected. And to think they recently acquired Whole Foods which stocks A2 Milk in US.
Add to that Amazon as reported recently are on the lookout for good acquisitions across globe which fit their earnings growth model, I'm sure Bezos can throw few billion $ to acquire a great company like A2 milk.

I'm drawing a very very long string here...pls DYOR.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/266067.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268506.pdf

Don't want to clog the A2 thread up unnecessarily but I think its useful for A2 investors to have a good understanding of Synlait as their major business partner.

Worth noting that Synlait have substantial headroom with processing capability outside of ATM contractual arrangements and we know it would be easy enough for more A2 herds to be brought "into the fold"

The possibility of a merger at some stage in the future appears to make sense.

[petty]

Great Call Nasi. I've also be interested in peoples views of A2 versus SML. I bought A2 at .75, sold for 2.25 and bought into SML around 2.50. My reason for switching to SML was a view that they were a lower risk than A2 given they work with New Hope and Munchin.

Ive heard John Penno speak and he seems very switched on and clear about strategy. He is acknowledged by dairy farmers in the region as being 'ahead of the game'.

[misterx]

Feeling a bit giddy up here with 97% of a2 in portfolio. Sold a few I bought last Friday 6k profit:).

Wishing I had more capital..lol

[King1212]

stupid eh...yesterday broker said SML rating to $6..the sp started to plunge then today there is a conference presentation in China....

I think it was the broker playing up the scare thing to get in cheaper????

[Beagle]

Feeling a bit giddy up here with 97% of a2 in portfolio. Sold a few I bought last Friday 6k profit:).

Some weekend homework for you my friend
https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/investment-wisdom.html

[Leftfield]

The following from SML's presentation to the Select Equities Conference, released to NZX today......

ATM nicely positioned.

9257

[King1212]

The following from SML's presentation to the Select Equities Conference, released to NZX today......

ATM nicely positioned.

9257

yes saw that couple weeks ago..last update. that why I bought in..because I can see SML sp double or triple next year. As the cap at the moment is $1.5b compare with ATM of $6b

[Snoopy]

Earnings growth for FY2018 to FY2020.

2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 288%

A 288% incremental increase in the A2 cow herd in just three years is quite a few female calves to born. If half the cows born are female we are talking about:

2 x 288% = a 576% increase in A2 cows to be born.

And 'new' cows won't be ready top calve (compound in accounting terms) until 24 months is up, at the very earliest. So all the required growth needed to have started two years ago. You can't just rack the growth up year by year in cows by putting them on a spreadsheet Beagle. And I still have yet to factor in the removing of the old cows at the other end of their production life.




Worth noting that Synlait have substantial headroom with processing capability outside of ATM contractual arrangements and we know it would be easy enough for more A2 herds to be brought "into the fold"


What A2 herds to be 'brought into the fold'? I don't believe there are any, not fully A2 herds at least, which is what you need.

Can I suggest you A2 shareholders read Keith Woodford's paper on breeding A2 cows

https://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/a2-breeding-paper.pdf

I draw your attention to page 6 in particular

------

The speed at which a herd will be converted to A2 milk production depends on whether the strategy relies solely on use of A2 semen (the passive approach) or a more active strategy that requires testing all cows together with selective culling and calf retention. If farmers rely on the passive approach, and assuming that cows start milk production at two years of age, it will take 2.75 years subsequent to mating decisions before there is any impact in the milk vat. Thereafter, and assuming an initial A1:A2 ratio of 50:50, then the A2 proportion will increase each year by about 5 percentage units (e.g. to 55:45 once the first cohort of specially bred heifers enters the milking herd approximately three years after conception).
However, the rate of improvement gradually slows down (the relationship is asymptotic) and a herd will never reach 100% A2 without testing of cows. For farmers who start with A2 semen and then complete the process by testing cows and selecting only A2A2 replacements, the total process is likely to take about two cow generations, i.e. about 10 years.

------

I want you to read the two highlighted bits in particular. The best case scenario with intensive management is that it will take ten years for a farmer to convert their herd, without any growth in herd numbers. Yet growth numbers for A2 milk spouted by investors on this forum have already priced in a 500% increase in A2 herd size in just two to three years. These growth numbers are so far outside of the reality of what breeding can achieve, I can only see the whole A2 investment thing ending in tears for investors buying ATM at today's prices. How can you invest in something when it is nearly biologically impossible to create the A2 milk volumes that the business plan needs?

Of course this isn't to say that the ATM share price won't go higher on market exuberance. But ultimately the market is a 'weighing machine', not a 'voting machine'. And the weigh in time for A2 milk is coming.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

It seems expensive on fundmental's, current year PE is late 30's but I think they're building a great global business, (business's that build a great global franchise almost always seem expensive as they go up based on fundmental's so its definitely a case of watch the TA with this one) and am happy to keep holding as long as the technical's suggest its wise to do so. The other thing is I think we could see the currency move materially lower under the new coalition Government so there's tailwinds there in my opinion.

Tailwinds have been stronger than I expected over the last week. I remain of this view and am more than happy to let profits run...


Snoopy, you are right that it takes time to breed new herds. However - what we both don't know is how much A2-milk they currently sell as "standard" milk in these 25kg paper bags. I asked this question re A2 supply several times (during AGM's and in site visits) ... and while they never come up with hard figures (apparently commercially sensitive) the message is always that their A2 supply is lots.

As well - standard herds supply a mix of A1 and A2-milk. If you need more A2 milk, in the first instance there is no need to breed more A2-cows, but you just need to sort and separate your cows - and within days you can turn a large "standard milk herd" into a A1-milk herd (and keep selling the milk as standard milk) and an A2-milk herd (producing premium A2 product).

You don't need to breed - just two seperate paddocks and separate milking equipment for the two milk sorts.

It is not like A2 being something new ... many herds always supplied mainly A2-milk (e.g. Jersey or Dexter) and even most NZ high performance herds produce to roughly 50% A2. If you want to sell that as A2, than you just need to make sure you separate the A1-cows .... and this is just some testing and organisation .... no need for lots of (time consuming) breeding.

Obviously - over time you will want to move your herd to "pure" A2. Saves the time and effort to test (and if necessary separate) every new heifer.

Snoopy I thought we'd already debated this A2 cow supply thing to death. Its simply a matter of doing deals between farmers to sort the wheat from the chaff. There are literally thousands of dairy farmers out there who have wheat in their herd's who have huge debt legacy issues from the recent dairy price collapse who would be only too pleased to be on the receiving end of some "financial lubrication" to encourage them to swap some of their A2 type cows for A1 cows. The herds are not ready right away per se, but the supply is there nonetheless. No need to breed them, just let the hounds out and round up the good ones :)

[dobby41]

Thank you Snoopy - I didn't think it was 'easy' to bring A2 cows into the fold as the Beagle suggested.
Maybe he has a herd or 2 spare in his backyard?

[couta1]

Wishing I had more capital..lol I've spent up big this week and not a cent on this stock, happy to get a big HLG dividend, the market has well and truly weighed that stock, hope A2 can tip the scales in line with it's very lofty pricing and expectation on it's next critical weigh-in, otherwise.

[RTM]

Tailwinds have been stronger than I expected over the last week. I remain of this view and am more than happy to let profits run...



Snoopy I thought we'd already debated this A2 cow supply thing to death. Its simply a matter of doing deals between farmers to sort the wheat from the chaff. There are literally thousands of dairy farmers out there who have wheat in their herd's who have huge debt legacy issues from the recent dairy price collapse who would be only too pleased to be on the receiving end of some "financial lubrication" to encourage them to swap some of their A2 type cows for A1 cows. The herds are not ready right away per se, but the supply is there nonetheless. No need to breed them, just let the hounds out and round up the good ones :)

And of course other countries such as USA may well get in on the act if the demand / price becomes attractive enough.

[Leftfield]

Like the Beagle, I doubt if the supply of A2 milk is an issue for the planned production increases.

1.) Would SML have invested in doubling its plant/production without ensuring adequate supply of A2 milk?
2.) There are strong indications that other NZ farmers are already positioning their bets on A2 and there is more supply waiting. Here's a pic of an article of a new north island A2 plant in the planning for 2018.
9258
3.)In a 1 May 2017 article in Agri HQ reporter Paul McBeth noted, "A2 had (has) been taking less than half of the 200m litres of (A2) milk it had contracted from SML's farmers."

[see weed]

I've spent up big this week and not a cent on this stock, happy to get a big HLG dividend, the market has well and truly weighed that stock, hope A2 can tip the scales in line with it's very lofty pricing and expectation on it's next critical weigh-in, otherwise.
Same here, but sold HLG and others to get a2 for the last 4 weeks, and it paid off. Plenty of time to get back into HLG, it doesn't go ex div until 8/12/17, which is after the ATM agm.

[winner69]

9% up 2 weeks ago then 3% last week and 8% this week

Can’t ask for more

Say 5% next week and it’s over 9 bucks

And now only 16% away from 10 bucks - 2 weeks, no make it 3 weeks

[Snoopy]

Snoopy I thought we'd already debated this A2 cow supply thing to death. Its simply a matter of doing deals between farmers to sort the wheat from the chaff. There are literally thousands of dairy farmers out there who have wheat in their herd's who have huge debt legacy issues from the recent dairy price collapse who would be only too pleased to be on the receiving end of some "financial lubrication" to encourage them to swap some of their A2 type cows for A1 cows. The herds are not ready right away per se, but the supply is there nonetheless. No need to breed them, just let the hounds out and round up the good ones :)


While the cows might be there, it might surprise you to learn that the value of a cow is not solely dependent on its ability to produce A2 milk. Milk yield per cow is important. Temperament of the cow is important for handling purposes. The ability to give birth easily is important amongst other factors. To suggest that a farmer may be influenced to trade the cows he knows for others solely because the cows he wants will produce A2 regardless of all other factors is I feel wrong.

You say a farmer who is financially stretched may wish to trade cows to gain some capital at the expense of 'regressing' to A1 cows. But if the farmer is financially stretched, how are they going to afford to get the A2 test done to prove (some) of their cows are A2, when there is no guarantee those cows will be A2? Besides, are those farmers still financially stretched at today's milk prices? Why would a farmer voluntarily degrade their cow stock for the future when they didn't need to?

Finally have you ever heard of a farmer who has actually done this? Even one farmer? While I wouldn't dismiss your suggestion of 'rounding up the A2 cows' out of hand, I feel it is extremely unlikely to occur in practice.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Like the Beagle, I doubt if the supply of A2 milk is an issue for the planned production increases.

1.) Would SML have invested in doubling its plant/production without ensuring adequate supply of A2 milk?


I think you are misreading the problem Left Field. The share price has been bid up to an extent that production increases of nearly 300% are already priced in. A production increase of only 100% isn't going to go anywhere near cutting it.

SNOOPY

[Snow Leopard]

Earnings growth for FY2018 to FY2020.

2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 288%

A 288% incremental increase in the A2 cow herd in just three years is quite a few female calves to born. If half the cows born are female we are talking about...


What A2 herds to be 'brought into the fold'? I don't believe there are any, not fully A2 herds at least, which is what you need...

...Of course this isn't to say that the ATM share price won't go higher on market exuberance. But ultimately the market is a 'weighing machine', not a 'voting machine'. And the weigh in time for A2 milk is coming....

While I contend that your assertions are demonstrably incorrect and that your suppositions are predicated on your preconceived negativity for this stock, a trait which often leads your to post such highly selective slivers of information selected purely on the filter of meeting confirmation bias, and I am confident that the supply issue argument which you attempt to make is but a figment of your imagination...

I not only concur that the current euphoria and trajectory of the share price may continue unabated for some time hence...

But also agree that on the basis of a rational valuation of the weighted averages of a broad range of future profit scenarios over the immediate, post-immediate, intermediate and distant time frames that the current share price is at a significant premium to a sensible appraisal of current worth.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

At this rate ATM could have a higher market cap than Fonterra

[Beagle]

The market obviously believes they're in the process of building a great global brand and often prices companies at extremely high PE's, (No PE, look no further than XRO for a great example of that) when its anticipated the growth will be enduring.

Snoopy, I'm not going to claim any dairy expertise but as PT has suggested I think you can be prone to looking for information that confirms your bias, much like you've done with some other companies. Fact is it does keep going up at pace and on strong volumes on both bourses and we're not talking about a small cap company here anymore so there's substantial weight of money that believes the A2 growth story. This stock used to be a shorters / manipulators plaything but I think those with a short interest got burned off a long time ago !

[bull....]

The market obviously believes they're in the process of building a great global brand and often prices companies at extremely high PE's, (No PE, look no further than XRO for a great example of that) when its anticipated the growth will be enduring.

Snoopy, I'm not going to claim any dairy expertise but as PT has suggested I think you can be prone to looking for information that confirms your bias, much like you've done with some other companies. Fact is it does keep going up at pace and on strong volumes on both bourses and we're not talking about a small cap company here anymore so there's substantial weight of money that believes the A2 growth story. This stock used to be a shorters / manipulators plaything but I think those with a short interest got burned off a long time ago !

way back on this thread i used to battle with mac bear vrs the bull when the price used to swing between 48 - 60c back and forth great fun.... so your right shorters are way gone now ... funny if i was still holding my original holding of 200k shares at 50c it would be worth 1.7 million today for a cost of 100k oh well hindsight is a wonderful thing :scared: dont hold anymore but it was fun thats for sure

[Beagle]

way back on this thread i used to battle with mac bear vrs the bull when the price used to swing between 48 - 60c back and forth great fun.... so your right shorters are way gone now ... funny if i was still holding my original holding of 200k shares at 50c it would be worth 1.7 million today for a cost of 100k oh well hindsight is a wonderful thing :scared: dont hold anymore but it was fun thats for sure

There's a few very sad hindsight stories with this one, Couta1 has one and many others and I have one I haven't shared before either. Those swings you talk about... 48-60 cents weren't fun for everyone. I bought some at 59 cents as a spec and put a 15% stop loss on it and guess what happened when it went under 50 cents...oh well...I console myself I got back in just after it went up through $2. I just try and be grateful for small mercies or fortune the good Lord allows me to enjoy and try and forget about what could have been. Can't help wondering where this train takes shareholders 3-4 years from now but I won't be throwing my ticket away this time !

[hardt]

If the market remains relatively bullish on the backdrop of A2 and infant formula in China, what kind of price will people pay for growth?

Very few stocks have a PEG below 1 and I highly doubt A2 milk will be one of them.

Even with earnings growth significantly tapering off over the next 5 years it still looks good to me.

Most stocks I hold sit around 1.2-2 PEG , I would love to find the NZX average to compare.




ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020



EARNINGS PER SHARE

12.29

21.18

27.99

34.93



FORWARD PER AT 850

40.13

30.37

24.33

19.54



SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE

635

840

1048

1305



PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS

0.41

0.93

1.21

1.22



SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE

847

1120

1397

1740



PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS

0.55

1.24

1.61

1.63



FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH

72.35%

32.14%

24.81%

24.53%

[winner69]

Hardt - don’t know what the PEG of the NZX but for what’s it worth the ASX All Ords is on a PE of 16 with EPS growth of 12% so a PEG of 1.3

[Beagle]

Pretty sure Craigs mentioned in an NBR article a few weeks back our market on a forward PE of just over 20 and average earnings growth this year was 8% so PEG of 2.5.

I think you make a good point that for the growth expected the shares are not expensive especially when you start looking at the PEG of stocks like FPH and RYM to name just two other NZX10 sized companies with consistent growth, albeit at a much, much lower rate.

It would not surprise me to see this at around $4-$5 in 4-5 years time, (after a 5:1 share split).

[couta1]

Recent punters will be hoping that 4 traders mean target price of $6.14 is wrong, but then again maybe it isn't.

[hardt]

Recent punters will be hoping that 4 traders mean target price of $6.14 is wrong, but then again maybe it isn't.

Needless to say price targets are 6-12 month outlooks on fair value, people take more than just the next reporting period into consideration when buying a stock now don't they.

Brokers who get it wrong the first time tend to carry on distorting success as a bubble and remain bearish throughout, until a new analyst takes over the coverage.


Pretty sure Craigs mentioned in an NBR article a few weeks back our market on a forward PE of just over 20 and average earnings growth this year was 8% so PEG of 2.5.

I think you make a good point that for the growth expected the shares are not expensive especially when you start looking at the PEG of stocks like FPH and RYM to name just two other NZX10 sized companies with consistent growth, albeit at a much, much lower rate.

It would not surprise me to see this at around $4-$5 in 4-5 years time, (after a 5:1 share split).

Yep, PEG is what I have been using to value the likes of SML and ATM relative to some other options... globally it is discounted growth.

[Beagle]

Recent punters will be hoping that 4 traders mean target price of $6.14 is wrong, but then again maybe it isn't.

I think you'll find those forecasts are based on data that's many months out of date. Analysts often wait for official company updates before revising their valuations so you can expect major revisions next month after the company annual meeting and official market update.

[kiora]

If the market remains relatively bullish on the backdrop of A2 and infant formula in China, what kind of price will people pay for growth?

Very few stocks have a PEG below 1 and I highly doubt A2 milk will be one of them.

Even with earnings growth significantly tapering off over the next 5 years it still looks good to me.

Most stocks I hold sit around 1.2-2 PEG , I would love to find the NZX average to compare.




ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020



EARNINGS PER SHARE

12.29

21.18

27.99

34.93



FORWARD PER AT 850

40.13

30.37

24.33

19.54



SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE

635

840

1048

1305



PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS

0.41

0.93

1.21

1.22



SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE

847

1120

1397

1740



PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS

0.55

1.24

1.61

1.63



FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH

72.35%

32.14%

24.81%

24.53%




This is assuming their is enough A 2 milk supply but it is dependent on biological systems.How is ATM placed on milk supply?
' a pure A2 herd will never be achieved. In testing situations, A2 achievement of herd purity typically takes between four and fifteen years depending on specific strategies and herd parameter"
https://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/handle/10182/5640?show=full

[hardt]

This is assuming their is enough A 2 milk supply but it is dependent on biological systems.How is ATM placed on milk supply?
' a pure A2 herd will never be achieved. In testing situations, A2 achievement of herd purity typically takes between four and fifteen years depending on specific strategies and herd parameter"
https://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/handle/10182/5640?show=full

Synlait milk is responsible for the supply of the raw materials used in the Infant formula, not once have we heard anything about future prospects of limited supply.

The idea of doubling the A2 certified farms is usurped by the growth of current A2 certified dairy farms herd size as they have the breeding stock available.

Does anyone really think A2 and SML have not considered the supply of raw materials in their 10 year business plan?

This idea of the supply of A2 milk not keeping up with demand is a very weak bear case to put forward and belongs on hotcopper...


Ex Synlait AR:

Further premiums are paid for a2 Milk™ and Grass Fed™ programmes.
Synlait has sufficient milk supply for the foreseeable future and is not seeking further farmer contracts for our Dunsandel site.

We now have 60 farms supplying 225 million litres per year of a2 milk™. These farms produce 65% of certified a2 milk™ produced globally.
This milk is used in the manufacture of The a2 Milk Company’s infant formula, whole milk powder and skim milk powder products for sale in consumer packs.

[Snoopy]

Synlait milk is responsible for the supply of the raw materials used in the Infant formula, not once have we heard anything about future prospects of limited supply.

The idea of doubling the A2 certified farms is usurped by the growth of current A2 certified dairy farms herd size as they have the breeding stock available.

Does anyone really think A2 and SML have not considered the supply of raw materials in their 10 year business plan?


The question is not: "Does ATM have sufficient raw material supply for the business plan?"

The question is: "Does ATM have sufficient milk supply to meet the investor expectations implied by the current share price?"



This idea of the supply of A2 milk not keeping up with demand is a very weak bear case to put forward and belongs on hotcopper...

Ex Synlait AR:

Further premiums are paid for a2 Milk™ and Grass Fed™ programmes.
Synlait has sufficient milk supply for the foreseeable future and is not seeking further farmer contracts for our Dunsandel site.

We now have 60 farms supplying 225 million litres per year of a2 milk™. These farms produce 65% of certified a2 milk™ produced globally.
This milk is used in the manufacture of The a2 Milk Company’s infant formula, whole milk powder and skim milk powder products for sale in consumer packs.


It is quite difficult to get information on volume of milk supplied. This statement came with the annual result for FY2015

"In response to the increasing demand for infant formula and whole milk powder products, the Company has been active in securing new long term milk supply contracts in New Zealand, with annual milk supply doubling to over 100 million litres."

The revenue for China and Other Asia for FY2015 was $4.044m. The incremental revenue in Australasia

$149.017m - $106.866m = $42.151m

Let's assume all of that incremental revenue is representative of the 'Daigu' A2 milk powder imported into China. So total Chinese revenue for FY2015 was:

$42.151m + $4.044m = $46.195m

p20 of the AR2017 says A2 Platinum sales rose 78% over FY2017. In dollar terms, this was a rise from $214,376m to $394.026m. There was no equivalent product sales breakdown in AR2016. However if you look at the 'Portfolio Presentation' given to investors on 11th - 12th September, 'Portfolio Composition' slide on p20, if drawn to scale looks like a revenue gain of about 500% between FY2015 and FY2016.

So total Revenue gain from FY2015 to FY2017 looks like it has gone up: 5 x 1.78 = 890%.

$46.195m x 8.9 = $411m, within the ballpark of Synlait's $394m quoted sales figures.

Meanwhile the milk under contract via Synlait NZ has gone up from 100 million litres at EOFY2015 to 225 million litres at EOFY2018. We also know that this 225 million litres represents 65% of all certified A2 milk produced globally. One thing we do not know is how much of the A2 milk from Synlait in NZ, processed or not, is supplied to the NZ market. However, I would assume it is not a high percentage of total A2 Synlait output:

The question I would pose to shareholders is this.

1/ If the total A2 raw product supply of milk to Synlait in NZ has gone up by 225% over two years AND
2/ This 225 million litres represents 65% of world certified supply AND
3/ During this period A2 Platinum production out of NZ has grown by 890% (i.e. the increase in formula production is growing four times faster than the increase in raw material supply).
4/ How much raw A2 milk we be needed to increase A2 platinum production my another factor of 3 above our baseline 2015 figure?

The answer is I believe a lot more milk than the total certified global production of A2 milk right now. Even if you could get away with 'only' increasing the herd by 100% within three years, that is still three times faster than the maximum rate of herd breeding rate that the best genetic testing and herd culling is able to achieve.

In summary there is nothing wrong with the A2 business plan and every reason to believe it will be achieved. But the absurd growth implied by investor bid PE levels will not be achieved. IMO the fair value for A2 milk shares today is something less than $3 on biologically possible business prospects.

SNOOPY

[Snow Leopard]

Q: How much milk does NZ produce in a year?
A: Approx 20,000 million litres.

Q: How much of that milk is 'pure' A2 (i.e. the cow is homogeneous A2)?
A: Approx 30% or 6,000 million litres.

Q: How much of that 6,000 million litres is actually from certified A2 cows in A2 only herds?
A: Don't know, but lets us say 5% or 300 million litres.

Q: If the demand is there and the economics work out, like if there is a sufficient premium for A2 over non-A2, would it be possible to screen the existing herds for A2 cows and do a little cattle shuffling to increase the size of certified A2 cows in A2 only herds?
A: Absolutely.

Q: By how much?
A: Lots.

Q: Will that Satisfy Snoopy?
A: We will have to wait and see.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Many punters buying in at current prices for FOMO, yet they have already missed out on a 100% plus gain over the last 3 months. Where will the SP be 3 months from now? no one knows but it won't be double the current price, that's for sure. My FOGS (Fear of getting skunked) is hugely greater than any FOMO I might entertain for a few seconds. Remember don't buy any share you wouldn't be happy holding if the market shut down for 10 years,all my current stocks fit that criteria.

[kizame]

Many punters buying in at current prices for FOMO, yet they have already missed out on a 100% plus gain over the last 3 months. Where will the SP be 3 months from now? no one knows but it won't be double the current price, that's for sure. My FOGS (Fear of getting skunked) is hugely greater than any FOMO I might entertain for a few seconds. Remember don't buy any share you wouldn't be happy holding if the market shut down for 10 years,all my current stocks fit that criteria.

Sorry, but if the market shut down for ten years,how would you be any worse off owning ATM than your other picks,in fact when the market reopened in ten yrs time,I would say you would be pretty pleased with the stock price catch up.
But i see what you are trying to say,if the market actually shut down for ten yrs I would rather hold something with some real growth potential such as ATM.

[King1212]

That why...I believe SML is better position compared with ATM n better value. As SML not only contracted to ATM but other 2 big players...New Hope Nutritional and Munchkin USA

[see weed]

Yes, just bought 10K @ 8.10 24/10 ...just following your jovial self.-:t_up: averaging up on a good story but then I got on and off the train frequently to stretch my legs.
Same here. Sold some Friday, and bought 10,000 back today:eek2:.

[kiora]

Q: How much milk does NZ produce in a year?
A: Approx 20,000 million litres.

Q: How much of that milk is 'pure' A2 (i.e. the cow is homogeneous A2)?
A: Approx 30% or 6,000 million litres.

Q: How much of that 6,000 million litres is actually from certified A2 cows in A2 only herds?
A: Don't know, but lets us say 5% or 300 million litres.

Q: If the demand is there and the economics work out, like if there is a sufficient premium for A2 over non-A2, would it be possible to screen the existing herds for A2 cows and do a little cattle shuffling to increase the size of certified A2 cows in A2 only herds?
A: Absolutely.

Q: By how much?
A: Lots.

Q: Will that Satisfy Snoopy?
A: We will have to wait and see.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

And all these cows would be supplying milk to Synlait in Dunsandel ? the logistics management would be interesting

[winner69]

share price off to a flying start for the week

so 9 bucks in next day or two

[couta1]

share price off to a flying start for the week

so 9 bucks in next day or two You'll be encouraging your mates down at the bowling club to buy in aye winner, I mean they are sure to make heaps on this one.

[winner69]

You'll be encouraging your mates down at the bowling club to buy in aye winner, I mean they are sure to make heaps on this one.

They bought in early this month so didn’t doom atm to the has beens

They cut their losses on comvita to do so .....so that turned comvita around big time.

[sb9]

They bought in early this month so didn’t doom atm to the has beens

They cut their losses on comvita to do so .....so that turned comvita around big time.

Gosh, even for myself as true believer in this company the price assault over past weeks been relentless and unabated....

[Sideshow Bob]

Gosh, even for myself as true believer in this company the price assault over past weeks been relentless and unabated....

Just had another look and just jumped another 12c from 20 minutes ago. The Aussies have just woken up for the week.....

[see weed]

Is that your 60k buy order couta 8.78?:t_up:. 8.79 now

[couta1]

Is that your 60k buy order couta 8.78?:t_up:. 8.79 now Very funny, but no I wouldn't touch it with the length of a milk tanker. PS-You had better start buying your HLG back while they are still cheap.

[see weed]

Very funny, but no I wouldn't touch it with the length of a milk tanker. PS-You have better start buying your HLG back while they are still cheap.
Another 5 weeks + before ex div. 5 weeks a long time and lots of milk under the bridge before then.

[Snoopy]

Q: If the demand is there and the economics work out, like if there is a sufficient premium for A2 over non-A2, would it be possible to screen the existing herds for A2 cows and do a little cattle shuffling to increase the size of certified A2 cows in A2 only herds?
A: Absolutely.


I know that 'A2 Platinum' infant formula is a very lucrative product for the A2 milk company. But how lucrative is it for farmers?

If this 2015 reference is in any way current, not a lot more lucrative.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1502/S00765/update-a2-milks-premium-payout-attracts-farmer-interest.htm

"A2 Milk pays a premium of around 5 to 7 percent to its small number of farmer suppliers in New Zealand, Australia, and the UK, which has become more attractive as the farmgate milk price for standard milk has dropped markedly this season."

The converse to this statement is that the premium for A2 becomes less attractive if milk prices rise (as is the case now).

From this forum, talking about trying to buy an A2 cow.

https://www.lifestyleblock.co.nz/forum/your-place/36278-where-to-buy-an-a2-dairy-cow

"LIC charge $22.50 + GST for the test, though there is also the cost for collecting the blood/tissue sample, and there is a 6 week turnaround."

So the question is, does the premium offer price compensate for the A2 test and all the ancillary downstream costs? For one farmer, on one farm the answer is 'no' as the cost of duplication of stock handling and separation of herd facilities is too great. But what is the situation if the farmer wants to sell their cows outright?

If only one in three cows is fully A2, then the average test cost will be 3x $22.50 + GST (because you don't know if the cows you test will be A2 in advance). So that is $75.94 per A2 cow, on average. To test 100 cows would cost $7600, plus the collection fees. I reckon you would be doing well to get a vet to do this for 100 cows for $2,400. So round figures, we are talking $10,000 for 100 cows to 'do the test', and get 33 pure A2 cows identified.

Then say the premium milk price offered is 7%, and an A2 cow is worth 5% more as a result. At $2,300 per A1 cow, that would suggest an A2 premium of $115 on the A1 cow price. Over 33 cows this adds up to $3,795. So our farmer doing the 'cow swap' might expect a $3795 payout for 33 cows, after incurring costs of $10,000. And that means the farmer selling the cows would be looking at a 'net loss' of:

$10,000 - $3,795 = $6,205!

This is without including transport costs or stockyard fees. So to me the economics of 'cow swapping' look unviable, which is possibly why I have never heard of a farmer who has done it! Still a great many investors in ATM believe it is going to happen. Go figure!

SNOOPY

[misterx]

feel as though sp will shoot above $10 after agm.. or will I jinx it

[couta1]

Another 5 weeks + before ex div. 5 weeks a long time and lots of milk under the bridge before then. I didn't have the luxury of waiting based on the size holding I wanted, plus not wanting to pay more than $3.30 Avg for that holding.

[Brain]

This share reminds me of 1987.
I bought this share at an average of 70 c. And sold out at $2 because I thought it was grossly overvalued. The market had gone mad I thought.

[kizame]

This share reminds me of 1987.
I bought this share at an average of 70 c. And sold out at $2 because I thought it was grossly overvalued. The market had gone mad I thought.

Hmmn now 4x that,the market has just got angrier, and is it getting a bit too far ahead of itself?

[Beagle]

Hmmn now 4x that,the market has just got angrier, and is it getting a bit too far ahead of itself?

Maybe ask the investors at XRO who are paying a lot of money for no earnings at all because they believe the company is growing an excellent worldwide franchise.

[sb9]

Maybe ask the investors at XRO who are paying a lot of money for no earnings at all because they believe the company is growing an excellent worldwide franchise.

Exactly, this is the company that's sitting on $121mln cash on hand as at 30/06/17. Even if we average out 10mln cash per month they would be sitting currently (end of OCT) on cash of in excess of $160mln (my bet its more like $170mln+).

And their investment in Synlait has more than doubled since investing at around $3.12 or so, which strengthens their balance sheet even further.

Lastly their debt is ZILCH.....isn't that lovely mouth watering recipe for any company to be in.

[Sideshow Bob]

Exactly, this is the company that's sitting on $121mln cash on hand as at 30/06/17. Even if we average out 10mln cash per month they would be sitting currently (end of OCT) on cash of in excess of $160mln (my bet its more like $170mln+).

And their investment in Synlait has more than doubled since investing at around $3.12 or so, which strengthens their balance sheet even further.

Lastly their debt is ZILCH.....isn't that lovely mouth watering recipe for any company to be in.

Not to mention something unique, with IP protection, fixing a need, lots of potential markets etc etc etc etc

[Beagle]

Not to mention something unique, with IP protection, fixing a need, lots of potential markets etc etc etc etc

With potential for different dairy based products derived from A2 milk too. As you say, the A2 brand name is trade marked, I don't think some people are understanding the ramifications of that in terms of global product expansion going forward.

[hardt]

The question is not: "Does ATM have sufficient raw material supply for the business plan?"

The question is: "Does ATM have sufficient milk supply to meet the investor expectations implied by the current share price?"



It is quite difficult to get information on volume of milk supplied. This statement came with the annual result for FY2015

"In response to the increasing demand for infant formula and whole milk powder products, the Company has been active in securing new long term milk supply contracts in New Zealand, with annual milk supply doubling to over 100 million litres."

The revenue for China and Other Asia for FY2015 was $4.044m. The incremental revenue in Australasia

$149.017m - $106.866m = $42.151m

Let's assume all of that incremental revenue is representative of the 'Daigu' A2 milk powder imported into China. So total Chinese revenue for FY2015 was:

$42.151m + $4.044m = $46.195m

p20 of the AR2017 says A2 Platinum sales rose 78% over FY2017. In dollar terms, this was a rise from $214,376m to $394.026m. There was no equivalent product sales breakdown in AR2016. However if you look at the 'Portfolio Presentation' given to investors on 11th - 12th September, 'Portfolio Composition' slide on p20, if drawn to scale looks like a revenue gain of about 500% between FY2015 and FY2016.

So total Revenue gain from FY2015 to FY2017 looks like it has gone up: 5 x 1.78 = 890%.

$46.195m x 8.9 = $411m, within the ballpark of Synlait's $394m quoted sales figures.

Meanwhile the milk under contract via Synlait NZ has gone up from 100 million litres at EOFY2015 to 225 million litres at EOFY2018. We also know that this 225 million litres represents 65% of all certified A2 milk produced globally. One thing we do not know is how much of the A2 milk from Synlait in NZ, processed or not, is supplied to the NZ market. However, I would assume it is not a high percentage of total A2 Synlait output:

The question I would pose to shareholders is this.

1/ If the total A2 raw product supply of milk to Synlait in NZ has gone up by 225% over two years AND
2/ This 225 million litres represents 65% of world certified supply AND
3/ During this period A2 Platinum production out of NZ has grown by 890% (i.e. the increase in formula production is growing four times faster than the increase in raw material supply).
4/ How much raw A2 milk we be needed to increase A2 platinum production my another factor of 3 above our baseline 2015 figure?

The answer is I believe a lot more milk than the total certified global production of A2 milk right now. Even if you could get away with 'only' increasing the herd by 100% within three years, that is still three times faster than the maximum rate of herd breeding rate that the best genetic testing and herd culling is able to achieve.

In summary there is nothing wrong with the A2 business plan and every reason to believe it will be achieved. But the absurd growth implied by investor bid PE levels will not be achieved. IMO the fair value for A2 milk shares today is something less than $3 on biologically possible business prospects.

SNOOPY

$3 fair value - Snoopy™ Time stamped for 2020...

[Beagle]

$3 fair value - Snoopy™ Time stamped for 2020...

I think one of the hounds on here is desperately short of some A2 protein. Maybe A2 could make some A2 milk powder based dog biscuits to help with cognitive function.
Actually come to think of it, A2 milk powder based muesli bars might interest this hound too. Surely the sky is the limit with various A2 dairy product iterations :)

[couta1]

$3 fair value - Snoopy™ Time stamped for 2020... Snoopys fair value obviously on the very light side, I thought a few months ago that it could hit $10 in around 2020, so view current price as purely hype driven by the FOMO herd. Let's see in a year's time if all the hype is justified or not, could be a good TAB betting situation.

[peat]

Not to mention something unique, with IP protection

the type of milk is not unique and not IP'd

(just sayin)

[Baa_Baa]

Snoopys fair value obviously on the very light side, I thought a few months ago that it could hit $10 in around 2020, so view current price as purely hype driven by the FOMO herd. Let's see in a year's time if all the hype is justified or not, could be a good TAB betting situation.

When the market tide turns, as it eventually will and all SP's revert to fair value and then overrun to the downside as they tend to do, this will not be a happy place, but until it does the trend is very very friendly. Most here I suspect are quite capable of spotting a reversal and will disembark at the first station offering an exit. Meantime, euphoria reigns supreme. Bull markets are a joy if one can allay the wall of worry. On the other hand for those on the sidelines, FOMO is a b1tch.

[waikare]

What supermarkets stock A2 milk, I do very little supermarket shopping, but I do call into New World at Opotiki on my way to the crib in Te Kaha, for a few fresh supplies and a box of beers. I don't recall seeing any on the shelf when I get my blue top.

[Snoopy]

Not to mention something unique, with IP protection, fixing a need, lots of potential markets etc etc etc etc


Well the principal patent is now expired, in the US at least. So there is nothing to stop anyone selling A2 milk there, albeit trademark protection means they probably could not call it A2. Also A2 is not unique. It is a natural product that anyone with a cow of suitable genetics can sell.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

$3 fair value - Snoopy™ Time stamped for 2020...

This $3 value is a consequence of supply constraint. Remember a PE of 12-15 still indicates a growth company. It is just that the forward growth picture will be stunted. If last year was maximizing the value of what they have to sell already, and there is no easy way to increase A2 milk supply significantly, then sales in the future have to be limited by supply. Yes they could buy in more A2 cows on behalf of their farmer suppliers. But they might have to discount the revenues from their identification test to do so. They may also have to pay a lot more than the historical premium of 5-7% for A2 milk. All of those factors will have to hurt the bottom line of ATM going forwards. By 'hit the bottom line' I mean a lower margin on incremental sales. I am not saying the company would not continue to grow at all.

SNOOPY

[Kay]

I am completely baffled by the spp for this stock!...the cap of Fletcher building plus 20% change.

Is there much difference here than PIL?...albeit currently on a much higher scale...surely if the world decides it wants a2 milk it will find a way to breed cows that way without paying atm?

I admit I have no idea what atms patents involve...and I don't like milk!...But you have to assume that a few well funded bods at a uk or us university can find their own way to determine an a1/a2 cow!

[hardt]

This is slowly declining into Hotcopper territory.

Some have a theory that ATM/SML will have an inability to meet future demand, despite the exact opposite being said by both businesses.
A2 and SML have earned their "trusted source of material information shareholders will want to know" badge - when SML has stated on several occasions that there is sufficient supply of A2 milk for the foreseeable future and sees no need to contract any additional farms I would accept that to be the case...

Definitely a pricey stock no doubt, you are buying growth... goes without saying that if growth does not occur then there is a problem.

let us see how the sales track on 11.11 singles day and discuss the quantifiable demand growth for their products over last year.

Easy enough to turn a 4 bagger into realised profits ( with a haircut ) and use the rest to short back down to "fair value" - Now that i say it, yea, let's hope it all turns to garbage so we can make even more money on A2M!

[Leftfield]

There are none so blind as those that cannot see.

Claims of $3.00 value, inadequate supply and no IP protection are laughable and rather sad. I was going to do a long critique, but the sun is shining and my time is better spent enjoying the day.

I've been in ATM since the 50c days and at every stage I recall similar knocking, and so far all have been proven spectacularly wrong.

DYOR, sit back and enjoy.

[winner69]

How much will atm go up today .....yesterday was a bit slack ....but of catching up to do