ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

This is slowly declining into Hotcopper territory.

Some have a theory that ATM/SML will have an inability to meet future demand, despite the exact opposite being said by both businesses.
A2 and SML have earned their "trusted source of material information shareholders will want to know" badge - when SML has stated on several occasions that there is sufficient supply of A2 milk for the foreseeable future and sees no need to contract any additional farms I would accept that to be the case...

Definitely a pricey stock no doubt, you are buying growth... goes without saying that if growth does not occur then there is a problem.

let us see how the sales track on 11.11 singles day and discuss the quantifiable demand growth for their products over last year.

Easy enough to turn a 4 bagger into realised profits ( with a haircut ) and use the rest to short back down to "fair value" - Now that i say it, yea, let's hope it all turns to garbage so we can make even more money on A2M!

Turning into Hotcopper ...nah

I got banned for life on Hotcopper ...that’s pretty cool eh

And their system seems to catch me when I try to sign up again

[Clints]

Turning into Hotcopper ...nah

I got banned for life on Hotcopper ...that’s pretty cool eh

And their system seems to catch me when I try to sign up again

What did you do to get banned?

[King1212]

What did you do to get banned?

ramping stocks:D

[Beagle]

ramping stocks:D

He's a likeable rouge though :)

[Sideshow Bob]

What did you do to get banned?

Probably tried to put forward a rational perspective of a stock, backed up by analysis and financials! :p

[couta1]

Turning into Hotcopper ...nah

I got banned for life on Hotcopper ...that’s pretty cool eh

And their system seems to catch me when I try to sign up again Hard to believe winner, so many trolls, slagging off and insults on that site, I'd have thought you would have been a saint by comparison.

[Investor]

Probably tried to put forward a rational perspective of a stock, backed up by analysis and financials! :p

I'm sure that wasn't the case

[Tee]

ATM
aka A2M. Pride and joy of OZ, born in NZ, domicile- Auckland.

Synlait
Pride of NZ, truly kiwi, an IF success story.

[JeremyALD]

Anyone here have shares in Bubs on the asx? Notice it's gone up by 800% in a year and now has a higher market cap than MPG lol

[peat]

Anyone here have shares in Bubs on the asx? Notice it's gone up by 800% in a year and now has a higher market cap than MPG lol
I recommended it a couple of weeks ago at around 62.

I dont think they use A2 milk though, they focus on organic products and goat milk infant formula. So they have a similar target audience, namely lactose intolerants.

[Joshuatree]

China stopped taking goat milk products from Europe not sure why; pasteurising process maybe. BUB is picking up the business.Some dairy farmers here are switching to goats because they can make four times as much dough on the same sized land as cows. Environmentally it may be way better too with a lot less concentrated urine in the paddocks.

[couta1]

Looks like the a2 express is having a little breather and toilet stop at long last:). Time to regroup the troops and pick up any stragglers, before this bullet train takes off again, as it has done so many times in the past and left us behind. All aboard, and get a good seat now. next stop station 8.89:t_up:. Elevator up, Esculator down, next stop completely random.:D

[winner69]

Hope it’s a far better day today than yesterday

[Ggcc]

Looks like the a2 express is having a little breather and toilet stop at long last:). Time to regroup the troops and pick up any stragglers, before this bullet train takes off again, as it has done so many times in the past and left us behind. All aboard, and get a good seat now. next stop station 8.89:t_up:.

I love this company, but realistically how much higher can it go in the short term?

[sb9]

Latest from Prof Keith...

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2017/10/31/study-suggests-link-between-a1-beta-casein-and-type-1-diabetes/

[silu]

I love this company, but realistically how much higher can it go in the short term?

That's the multi-billion dollar question. Some say in the future A2 Milk will have the majority of shelf space. Some like me don't drink milk in general and let the company do what the company has done so far best.

[Scooter]

ouch, down with a thud this morning

[777]

Less than 3 weeks to go to the AGM and still no info as to where it will be.

[bull....]

looks like it was timely for me? :)

[Scooter]

looks to be a falling knife at the moment

[Clints]

Stop loss trigger worked at $8.61 let’s see where this goes

[RupertBear]

looks to be a falling knife at the moment

Sitting on my hands to resist the temptation to catch the falling knife ;)

[couta1]

Sitting on my hands to resist the temptation to catch the falling knife ;) Just toss a coin to see if it's just a short little blip or not, heads it is, tails it's not.

[Joshuatree]

Come back you cowardy custard
Black Knight - Monty Python and The Holy Grail - YouTube (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiH07y_8JvXAhXGNJQKHfhLDscQyCkIJzAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Ddh RUe-gz690&usg=AOvVaw3xOdhvy0egmP-l03fUcjV1)

[hardt]

Buyers totally dried up, looks fake to me. watching A2M.

[black knat]

Looking at the depth and day low....looks like it went to 8.15 for the day low so far. Wow:eek2:. Anyone get in at 8.15?

I've been buying .... lowest was $8.20.

[couta1]

Looking at the depth and day low....looks like it went to 8.15 for the day low so far. Wow:eek2:. Anyone get in at 8.15? Only a few thousand went at that price, have a look at the quote option on your trading account to view the beautiful canyon.

[bonne vie]

Flew past my $8.31 buy before I got notification, any ideas for sudden drop - recovering ok. Been in since in since 54c - pity sold many off at " highs" Possibly a lot stop losses triggered - when a lull in buyers?

[see weed]

Only a few thousand went at that price, had a look at the quote option on your trading account to view the beautiful canyon.
I didn't know you could access my trading account:confused:?

[couta1]

I didn't know you could access my trading account:confused:? Typo, had mearnt to be have, fixed now.

[silu]

You should have waited.....$7.75

[hardt]

Ouch and the trailing stops get hammered.

With the AGM just around the corner there could be some purposefully presented upside here.

[King1212]

Like i said...ATM is good company but SML is better value as SML contracted to A2, New Hope nutritional and Munchkin USA..grass feed certified.

[Tee]

ATM bull charged, but stopped by bad bear. Sustained a deep cut in the first few minutes, bravely fought on, but weakening.....

[hardt]

It is mere 10% pullback after another huge month at overbought levels.

This is engineered as fuhh

[Clints]

Wow - heading for sub $7.50 today what an EPIC drop. Any ideas what’s going on?

[bull....]

Wow - heading for sub $7.50 today what an EPIC drop. Any ideas what’s going on?

competitor b2 milk coming

[bull....]

anyway whos short

[stoploss]

Wow - heading for sub $7.50 today what an EPIC drop. Any ideas what’s going on?
Listen to the experts on TV tonight ...something like this " After a stellar run up of more than 200% this year market darling ATM suffered from some profit taking today "

[whatsup]

Relentless selling atm Im thinking that this is ATM's biggest daily drop.

[Tee]

Slam dunk SELL

[LegendOfRiot]

Sold some off around the $8.40 mark but may look to buy those back in the next few days.

[winner69]

Bloody Labour Government

[rayonline]

>14% down today. It's free fall.

[Beagle]

Holders will be nervously eyeing the 30 day MA support line which is $7.37. If that is breeched...

[King1212]

There wa the button $7.45....will bounce back a bit for now...?

[hardt]

Bloody Labour Government

First the All Blacks lose and now this.

Still not down for the month... Just gave my portfolio a 10% haircut :t_up: - needed some deflating

Bought more at 758... I am inflammable.

[Leftfield]

Ouch, feel for those buying at the recent highs.

Healthy correction IMHO.

Remember our valuations after the last update.... it will be interesting to see where it settles.


Here's my summary of ATM FY18 SP guesstimates to date;
BP Brokers - $A5.85
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

[bull....]

Ouch, feel for those buying at the recent highs.

Healthy correction IMHO.

Remember our valuations after the last update.... it will be interesting to see where it settles.


Here's my summary of ATM FY18 SP guesstimates to date;
BP Brokers - $A5.85
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

you forgot snopy $3

[suse]

when a share falls by this amount in one day dont they have to do a "please explain" or is that only if the price starts going up.

[bull....]

when a share falls by this amount in one day dont they have to do a "please explain" or is that only if the price starts going up.

i wouldnt think so, it went up so quick so its obvious why it is falling

[dobby41]

And I thought I was onto a sure thing and it would be $10 in no time at all.
Disappointed!

[Ggcc]

Panic for short term traders great for long term purchasers

[Nasi Goreng]

And for all those people who are having a really busy day and haven't checked the price yet... they check the share price at 6pm to see what todays gains were and are like :scared:

[Leftfield]

you forgot snopy $3

Yeah still trying to forget Snoopy! ;)

[carrom74]

ATM...Not for the faint hearted:confused:

[Antipodean]

ATM...Not for the faint hearted:confused:
Call marketing, this could be the new slogan on the milk bottle.

[t.rexjr]

Call marketing, this could be the new slogan on the milk bottle.

The good news for these likely 'engineered' goings on is it generally means someone big wants to buy lots more. I thought these rollercoaster rides were behind us...

[Clints]

ATM...Not for the faint hearted:confused:

Hahahaha - try NTL

[see weed]

So who is up 50c from day low:t_up: lots of fun aye.

[silu]

Bought a small parcel at $7.75 today so pretty happy with the recovery. If ATM were a rugby player the commentators would say "It is human after all".

[Beagle]

So who is up 50c from day low:t_up: lots of fun aye.

Did you take a double dose of blood pressure tablets today mate :p I don't know how you stand the volatility with the holding size you have, I have enough trouble with my modest position !

[Clints]

Who's moving the 60K parcel around?

[see weed]

Who's moving the 60K parcel around?
It's the 30k man now doing 60k, inflation you know. Been going on now for about 18 months...2years, mention this last year and couple of weeks ago.

[Clints]

Anyone else found ANZ Securities site down???

[tipsy]

Back to where we were a week ago.

[777]

Anyone else found ANZ Securities site down???


No. It is woking for me.

[Clints]

No. It is woking for me.

Hmmm - I am getting HTTP 500 error on multiple computers, all other sites are fine

[alliswell]

Anyone else found ANZ Securities site down???

Mine's up...but just a quick question,..what happened to "depth" I cant seem to find it?

[Jaiden]

when a share falls by this amount in one day dont they have to do a "please explain" or is that only if the price starts going up.
Seems like it https://nzx.com/announcements/309613
A2m stated that they're not withholding information, but otherwise no comment from them.

[see weed]

Did you take a double dose of blood pressure tablets today mate :p I don't know how you stand the volatility with the holding size you have, I have enough trouble with my modest position !
No blood pressure over here. Sell in morning buy back afternoon, It was worse when sp was at 50c, every time it moved 10c was making or losing 35k. Still in the green 180k, just lost last weeks gains but will get that back soon ;).

[hardt]

First the All Blacks lose and now this.

Still not down for the month... Just gave my portfolio a 10% haircut :t_up: - needed some deflating

Bought more at 758... I am inflammable.

One of the best performers of the day was ATM from 3pm to closing!

Will see if more buying presents itself tomorrow.

Singles day is just around the corner and there is nothing but love in the air for A2 ( visibly so ) from BABA

[moka]

Motley Fool knows why the price dropped!

https://www.fool.com.au/2017/11/01/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-shares-sank-8-lower-today/
Why did its shares sink lower?
With no news out of the company or broker notes to speak of, it is likely that investors have been spooked by a change in substantial holding announced yesterday afternoon.
According to the announcement, Colonial First State Asset Management has trimmed back its holding in the dairy company from a 6.4% stake to a 5.4% stake.

[couta1]

With Bellamy's up 2% for the day, the drop in the A2 price today looks very much like your garden variety profit taking, will be interesting to see if the sell off continues or reverses in short order, excuse the pun.

[RupertBear]

With Bellamy's up 2% for the day, the drop in the A2 price today looks very much like your garden variety profit taking, will be interesting to see if the sell off continues or reverses in short order, excuse the pun.

Did you resist temptation Couta or did you have a wee nibble? I should have stuck to sitting on my hands as I lost half a finger catching that falling knife :(

[couta1]

Did you resist temptation Couta or did you have a wee nibble? I should have stuck to sitting on my hands as I lost half a finger catching that falling knife :( My irrational side got the better of me, unfortunately I caught the knife a bit early so have a few fingers waiting to be stitched back on. Nothing like making a mistake to keep one humble.

[Beagle]

I think we all got a bit of a reality check today.

[bohemian]

My irrational side got the better of me, unfortunately I caught the knife a bit early so have a few fingers waiting to be stitched back on. Nothing like making a mistake to keep one humble. If it's any consolation you are not the only one. But fortunately didn't buy many.

[sb9]

I think we all got a bit of a reality check today.

Wow, what a day it was y'day. Glad was away with other commitments during trading hours from the computer.

Highest volume on ASX for the year 23mln plus shares changed hands. Think its just shake, drop and grab a bargain by the big fellas, I certainly don't think so. Will be interesting to keep an eye on those SSHs that will come through over next few days as to ascertain who's dumping and who's accumulating.

I for one don't think the sell off is done yet, there might further weakness in the lead upto the ASM in couple of weeks time.

Disc - didn't panic and sell any of mine.

[suse]

Singles day is just around the corner and there is nothing but love in the air for A2 ( visibly so ) from BABA
What is singles day?

[King1212]

Greatest sale event in China...

[winner69]

As long as day traders stay interested in a2m we’ll be right

Once they jump ship and find another game to play that’s when ‘investors’ need to worry .....and the share price settle at somewhere near ‘fundamental’ value whatever that is (and probably not $8 plus)

[mondograss]

What is singles day?

11th November (11/11)

[couta1]

Looking like another ugly day, see what the Aussies do this arvo.

[Nasi Goreng]

Couta1, you have been saying this has been too expensive for a while and to expect a big fall. What made you jump in yesterday on a relatively small pullback?

The reason I say small pull back is that this retracement takes us back to where the price was one month ago which is still crazy high compared to 6 months ago so if this does fall back, anything is possible.

[winner69]

Bowling club guys not worried ...still ahead they say

I told them just the normal ebb and flow of the market

[couta1]

Couta1, you have been saying this has been too expensive for a while and to expect a big fall. What made you jump in yesterday on a relatively small pullback?

The reason I say small pull back is that this retracement takes us back to where the price was one month ago which is still crazy high compared to 6 months ago so if this does fall back, anything is possible. Irrational play, human weakness, and things along those lines.

[mondograss]

FWIW I also bailed yesterday. I'll likely come back in at some point or maybe split my funds with SML, but decided I'd rather lock in my profits and watch from the sidelines for a little.

[rayonline]

Yesterday was up to a 14% down, closed off 8-9% down. But yeah surely could it go down even more .... I don't mind the up AND downs. Yesterday I got some at 8.06 and then 7.76 after missing out on 7.50.

[moka]

Yesterday was up to a 14% down, closed off 8-9% down. But yeah surely could it go down even more .... I don't mind the up AND downs. Yesterday I got some at 8.06 and then 7.76 after missing out on 7.50.

Reminds me of 2009 after the sharemarket bottomed in March. I would come home and check my portfolio and it would be up (or down) 10% to 20% in one day.

[Snoopy]

This $3 value is a consequence of supply constraint.


Just looking a little further into the supply constraint issue.

The latest Synlait presentation (27th October 2017)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171027/pdf/43nn38tm46qrgx.pdf, page 9

Shows Synlait have 60A2 milk fams under contract, producing 19.8million kg of milk solids.

From this page:

http://www.smartbusinesscentre.co.nz/2015/08/dairy-by-the-numbers/

"20.7 billion litres of milk was produced in the 2014 season, containing 1.8 billion kg of milksolids."

That contracted output should produce: (20.7/1.8) x 19.8million = 228 m litres of milk (A)

Total A2 milk Revenue from "Infant formula" for FY2017: $394.026m (B)

Assuming all A2 revenue from Sylait milk supply is from A2 Platinum, then dollars received per litre was:

$394.026 / 228 = $1.73 per litre

$1.73 is the manufacturer's supply price, not the end market sell price. This represents a 3.5% market share of the Chinese infant formula market (AR2017 p22) for the June FY2017 quarter, up from 2.6% in the June 2016 quarter.



SNOOPY

[couta1]

Looking like another ugly day, see what the Aussies do this arvo. The Aussies want a bounce.

[see weed]

So this is what they call shaking the tree. They got 23,000 off me this round:confused:.

[Nasi Goreng]

Looks to me like its a bit of a battleground at the moment with bulls and bears both getting torn to pieces.

[tipsy]

Day traders must love this stock.

[Nasi Goreng]

Day traders must love this stock.

Some will for sure... others will have been burned really badly this last 24 hours.

[see weed]

Looks to me like its a bit of a battleground at the moment with bulls and bears both getting torn to pieces.
This kitchen is getting too hot for me. Don't know whether I'm coming or going.

[winner69]

Day traders must love this stock.

they are the ones who make this exciting ...... what happens when they find another playpen

[couta1]

This kitchen is getting too hot for me. Don't know whether I'm coming or going. HaHa, welcome to the world of A2 where the only certainty, is well uncertainty. PS-Youll need your very best oven mitts if you want to stay in the kitchen.

[Leftfield]

This kitchen is getting too hot for me. Don't know whether I'm coming or going.


Me just back from a fab morning mountain bike ride, determined to ignore the market at the moment. My learning - it is almost impossible to pick 'tops and bottoms.' Best to take a longer term view.

Until ATM issues a market update, ask yourself, 'what has changed?'

So I'm holding.

[Beagle]

This kitchen is getting too hot for me. Don't know whether I'm coming or going.

Which is why the hound sold down most of his yesterday. Determined to have four paws in mint condition with all pads and claws intact and fur in glossy condition and well fed to boot. Doing a "Percy" and enjoying my free wild rollercoaster ride with my remaining holding which will get the boot when / if the rollercoaster dips below the 30 day MA at $7.37. ..wild rides with big ticket holdings no good for me and ruffle my fur too much :)

[Oliver Mander]

My stop loss got triggered yesterday...but was very pleased to buy the same shares back again this morning. Have reduced by average entry price accordingly...and still believe there is long term value there. Like the hound above, washing my paws and grooming my glossy coat...

[moka]

Me just back from a fab morning mountain bike ride, determined to ignore the market at the moment. My learning - it is almost impossible to pick 'tops and bottoms.' Best to take a longer term view.

Until ATM issues a market update, ask yourself, 'what has changed?'

So I'm holding.

I’m holding too and I bought a few more yesterday at $7.57 because they were cheaper than the day before. The story hasn’t changed. Long term it is a winner.
Thank you to whoever mentioned the book “The Art of Execution” by Lee Freeman–Shor on sharetrader some time ago. Excellent book, excellent advice.
“The key to successfully executing great ideas and making lots of money comes down to the actions you take AFTER you have invested in an idea and find yourself losing or winning.
One of the keys to riding a big winner is to avoid being scared out of it. It takes courage to be a pig.
Materially adapt when you are losing. Either add meaningfully to an existing investment or sell out.”

[Sideshow Bob]

This kitchen is getting too hot for me. Don't know whether I'm coming or going.

I was expecting to see "Seeweed Ltd" with a substantial holder notice.....!!

[hardt]

Yesterday was beautiful....

Retailers spooked on the "unknown"
Snowballed into a selldown with huge short volumes.
All while the bots let the trap door cave in.
Retailers picking up on the overreaction and returns to bullish buying.
Followed by those short positions being squeezed by closing.

50% of my portfolio... still buying on days like yesterday.

[rayonline]

50% of my portfolio... still buying on days like yesterday.

ATM is 50% of your portfolio?

[rayonline]

When events like these happen. Do you have funds set aside for this, is it a relatively small purchase or a larger one? If one sells of some other units the funds don't clear quick enough to allow you to buy more right?

I just had some funds set aside in my cash management account and purchase a relatively small amount ... $10k.

[RupertBear]

My irrational side got the better of me, unfortunately I caught the knife a bit early so have a few fingers waiting to be stitched back on. Nothing like making a mistake to keep one humble.

The finger I lost yesterday catching the falling knife has miraculously healed itself :D Hope your fingers have healed too Couta :)

[777]

When events like these happen. Do you have funds set aside for this, is it a relatively small purchase or a larger one? If one sells of some other units the funds don't clear quick enough to allow you to buy more right?

I just had some funds set aside in my cash management account and purchase a relatively small amount ... $10k.

With ANZ Securities funds from a sale are normally available once the sale order is complete. Available in that they can be used for purchases but not withdrawn from your account.

[hardt]

When events like these happen. Do you have funds set aside for this, is it a relatively small purchase or a larger one? If one sells of some other units the funds don't clear quick enough to allow you to buy more right?

I just had some funds set aside in my cash management account and purchase a relatively small amount ... $10k.

With larger buys like yesterday I just pay for it later with money taken out of a rental mortgage... brokerage is a lot more than normal, but the 11% return in 24hours makes that facility worth it in my books.

55% of my portfolio in ATM and 15% in SML... which more or less move in sync with each other so the big down days like yesterday really take a massive chunk out of my future kids college fund :(

Always trying to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash...

[couta1]

The finger I lost yesterday catching the falling knife has miraculously healed itself :D Hope your fingers have healed too Couta :) Have stitched a few back on but a couple went out in the waste disposal a bit too early in the arvo to be saved. Hand is still functioning well though.:cool:

[black knat]

Well i have had an interesting couple of days.... I have held a responsible parcel of these since 50c days and had bought a few more now a again over the past couple of years. Over last weekend I decided to increase my holding by about 75%. when I buy shares I have a habit of breaking the order in to small parcels and spreading the buying over a few days... its more work but I have always done it that way. I started buying on Tuesday (average $8.75), and continued yesterday ( average $8.01) and today (average $8.15). Overall average is 8.20. Was pretty worried last night.... but I am feeling pretty relieved about how it seems to have panned out.... at this stage.

[Joshuatree]

89th most shorted stock on the ASX atm.The games will continue in the days ahead .

[hardt]

89th most shorted stock on the ASX atm.The games will continue in the days ahead .

Short volume is at the lowest point in 15 months with A2M - 3.5% as of yesterday.

After today I would expect that some more were squeezed out.

Remember the days of being the most shorted stock on the ASX - dropping 10% at least one day per week :t_down:

9265

[Baa_Baa]

Short volume is at the lowest point in 15 months with A2M - 3.5% as of yesterday.

After today I would expect that some more were squeezed out.

Remember the days of being the most shorted stock on the ASX - dropping 10% at least one day per week :t_down:

9265

Hey thanks for the post, very interesting. Especially seeing that the shorts increased their position ~500% yesterday, almost 15% of volume!. Some burnt shorts after today's rise for sure, but sentiment counts for everything. NZX investors and traders should imho be aware of the short interest on ASX, it's a factor we don't usually have to consider in our local market. https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[RupertBear]

I’m holding too and I bought a few more yesterday at $7.57 because they were cheaper than the day before. The story hasn’t changed. Long term it is a winner.
Thank you to whoever mentioned the book “The Art of Execution” by Lee Freeman–Shor on sharetrader some time ago. Excellent book, excellent advice.
“The key to successfully executing great ideas and making lots of money comes down to the actions you take AFTER you have invested in an idea and find yourself losing or winning.
One of the keys to riding a big winner is to avoid being scared out of it. It takes courage to be a pig.
Materially adapt when you are losing. Either add meaningfully to an existing investment or sell out.”

Thanks for mentioning this book moka, I have just downloaded it from Amazon, looks very interesting :)

[sb9]

Good news ASM in Auckland.

"The meeting will be held at the Grand Millennium Hotel, 71 Mayoral Drive, Auckland, New Zealand on Tuesday, 21 November 2017 commencing at 11:30am (New Zealand time)".

[moka]

89th most shorted stock on the ASX atm.The games will continue in the days ahead .

Why would you short a stock like ATM? I can understand shorting stocks like WYN, IQE and MPG because the companies themselves were not performing and the price was likely to drop.
But when a stock is performing and is in a strong uptrend like ATM with no bad news on the horizon?

Seems to me the only way traders can make money by shorting ATM is to “engineer” and manipulate the price. The price would not fall so far and so fast of its own accord based on news. There was no news or other logical reason to cause the price to drop as it did on Wednesday.
So shorting is just a way for the traders to manipulate prices and make more money for themselves by making the market more volatile, so they can day-trade. They are creating their own market within the stockmarket.
If they are making money that money is coming those who sold on Wednesday because of fear or because their stop loss was triggered.
Doesn’t sound very fair and transparent to me.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/90029956/former-milford-trader-manipulated-the-market-twice
FMA chief executive Rob Everett said the market watchdog was pleased with the outcome.
Market manipulation threatens our core objective of promoting fair, efficient and transparent financial markets.
"For investors to participate confidently in our markets we need to target and respond to misconduct.

[Jaiden]

Any idea what this guy was up to?

https://puu.sh/ydswr/b63cca451c.png

For the past couple of hours, they've often been undercutting the minimum ask price by a few cents, only placing 1-3 shares at a time.

Is this some psychological tactic to discourage bidders from closing in on the lowest ask price, as it would force smaller bidders to pay somewhat significant brokerage if they cancel?

[RupertBear]

Freekin heck I cant keep up with this beast the last few days! Its enough to give a bear palpitations :eek2:

[Beagle]

Why short ?...because they can in Aussie quite easily and speculators are by their nature speculators at heart and will do what they do. Its no different to a killer whale eating a sea lion pup, its repugnant to us but its in their nature and they're just as hungry for a feed as those who hold a long posiotion so they do it. After such a big bounce yesterday I suspected they'd come out and play today. With all the extreme volatility the hound is pleased he's gone to ground with only a modest free carry stake left.

[winner69]

Why short ?...because they can in Aussie quite easily and speculators are by their nature speculators at heart and will do what they do. Its no different to a killer whale eating a sea lion pup, its repugnant to us but its in their nature and they're just as hungry for a feed as those who hold a long posiotion so they do it. After such a big bounce yesterday I suspected they'd come out and play today. With all the extreme volatility the hound is pleased he's gone to ground with only a modest free carry stake left.

With all these ups and downs and longs and shorts I take it everybody wins ...or do some lose

[Beagle]

With all these ups and downs and longs and shorts I take it everybody wins ...or do some lose

Brokers win that's for sure...it has been said that investment is somewhat like owning a bar of soap, rub it too much and...

[RupertBear]

With all these ups and downs and longs and shorts I take it everybody wins ...or do some lose

Too many ups and downs for me! I not feeling like a winner Winner :(

[kizame]

Calm down calm down, lets not forget this stock hasn't had a rest since 6.50,it's absolutely natural for profit takers to come in and give the assenting share price a bit of rest to catch it's breath.
If you look at the charts you can see it was overdue,so just relax,sip your pina colada and wait quietly for the next faise.

[moka]

Thanks for mentioning this book moka, I have just downloaded it from Amazon, looks very interesting :)

You are welcome. For me sharetrader is about sharing knowledge. I have learnt a lot from this forum and I think we are really lucky to have such a great resource in New Zealand. I went to HotCopper the other day for some information and a couple of minutes was enough for me. So many insulting personal attacks and negative comments. I did find what I was looking for though.

[hardt]

Consolidation is comforting...

[Leftfield]

Calm down calm down, lets not forget this stock hasn't had a rest since 6.50,it's absolutely natural for profit takers to come in and give the assenting share price a bit of rest to catch it's breath.
If you look at the charts you can see it was overdue,so just relax,sip your pina colada and wait quietly for the next faise.

Agree. Healthy correction before the next phase. Enjoying my pina colada. :t_up: TGIF.

[moka]

With all these ups and downs and longs and shorts I take it everybody wins ...or do some lose

I would say that in the past I have lost money because there have been occasions with other shares over the years when I have been scared out because the price dropped when there no reason, and then went back up again. I wasn’t aware until now that the market was manipulated to go down by those shorting shares. You don’t know what you don’t know.

[couta1]

With all these ups and downs and longs and shorts I take it everybody wins ...or do some lose That's like asking if everybody playing at a casino wins.

[winner69]

That's like asking if everybody playing at a casino wins.

But it seems in the excitement everybody is winning ....the shorters included .....but I suppose if the price is about the same as it was a few weeks ago there has to be a few losers as well

Just wondering

[Snoopy]

Freekin heck I cant keep up with this beast the last few days! Its enough to give a bear palpitations :eek2:


Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3. Your mind will reach a point of supreme calmness, so you will find that all worries about what you should do and most of all all those uncertainties centered around how to interpret what other people are doing will disappear. I have done this myself and found that it works a treat .... unless of course you happen to be a shareholder already....

SNOOPY

[couta1]

But it seems in the excitement everybody is winning ....the shorters included .....but I suppose if the price is about the same as it was a few weeks ago there has to be a few losers as well

Just wondering A lot of shorters would have been severely burnt by this stock over the last few months.

[RupertBear]

Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3. Your mind will reach a point of supreme calmness, so you will find that all worries about what you should do and most of all all those uncertainties centered around how to interpret what other people are doing will disappear. I have done this myself and found that it works a treat .... unless of course you happen to be a shareholder already....

SNOOPY

Aww Snoopy thats very cruel! :p Mind you I did start buying in at around $3 :D but I have been unable to resist jumping aboard the rocket ship on its way to another galaxy so there is a little fear in the little bear when it diverts off course at blistering speed :scared:

[Snow Leopard]

Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3....

I feel you are being a little pessimistic in your obviously thoroughly thought through valuation.

Myself, I have careful considered combined profit, dividend and milk flow models from a monte carlo simulation of milk product futures, including but not exclusively infant formula, fresh milk, cheeses (including the stuff they put on pizzas) and a range of flavoured yoghurt products.

ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

[kiora]

I feel you are being a little pessimistic in your obviously thoroughly thought through valuation.

Myself, I have careful considered combined profit, dividend and milk flow models from a monte carlo simulation of milk product futures, including but not exclusively infant formula, fresh milk, cheeses (including the stuff they put on pizzas) and a range of flavoured yoghurt products.

ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

Ah,you missed the Lactiferon bit !Or do Synlait get to keep it?

[Beagle]

The wild volatility certainty give this hound paws for thought this week. Just sticking my snout in the AIR and sniffing the breeze...exactly what sales for FY18 are built into shareholders very lofty expectations for the annual meeting update ? 4 traders consensus analyst expectations are about $750m (going purely off memory here, sorry its late and I simply can't be bothered looking it up)...what are the chances the company comes out and says yes sales are growing strongly and yes we expect sales of $750m this year and the market has worked itself into a lather expecting much more ? One wonders if the current SP implies the market expectation is for ~ $850 - $900m sales this year ?

Strap yourself in folks, could be a wild ride this month and extreme volatility this week just a taste of things to come ?
Disc: Still have a paw in the game but a nice stash of juicy bones to chew at my leisure from selling down most of mine at an average of ~ $8.30.
I think any cat or dog who thinks they can accurately value this is trying to pull the wool / fur ? over your eyes but this hound is definitely not sniffing a bargain at the current price !

[RGR367]

.....................
ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

Sorry Milk Drinking Tiger but the real value of ATM is anything beyond 50 cents had you bought it in early 2015 :) So yeah, anything above that price is just pure exhilarating joy that no shorters of this stock at this point will ever match :t_up:

[hardt]

A quick look at the rather lowball fair values:



ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020










EPS

12.29

21.18

27.90

34.90



DCF per share

9.15

18.96

26.94

34.81



$3 Earnings Multiple

24.41

14.16

10.75

8.60



$3 DCF Multiple

32.79

15.82

11.14

8.62



$4.72 Earnings Multiple

38.41

22.29

16.92

13.52



$4.72 DCF Multiple

51.58

24.89

17.52

13.56



Industry average PE is 30x

These fair values imply that the forecasted growth of 25-30% from 2018 onwards is not going to happen.

I most certainly don't agree with those values in the current climate.
I think people might be pre-empting a big guidance which could be setting themselves up for disappointment, the bar will keep rising again and again until A2M fails to reach it... perhaps you guys believe this is the year for failure?

The market will be unforgiving of any failure so I understand the reservations on this one...

[Leftfield]

Thanks Hardt. Nice to wake up this morning to a bit more serious analysis than (dare I say it) Snoopy and PT. Much appreciated. Clearly we are all waiting the 21 Nov ASM figures with interest!! Some of us better positioned than others.

[Snoopy]

I know that 'A2 Platinum' infant formula is a very lucrative product for the A2 milk company. But how lucrative is it for farmers?

If this 2015 reference is in any way current, not a lot more lucrative.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1502/S00765/update-a2-milks-premium-payout-attracts-farmer-interest.htm

"A2 Milk pays a premium of around 5 to 7 percent to its small number of farmer suppliers in New Zealand, Australia, and the UK, which has become more attractive as the farmgate milk price for standard milk has dropped markedly this season."

The converse to this statement is that the premium for A2 becomes less attractive if milk prices rise (as is the case now).

From this forum, talking about trying to buy an A2 cow.

https://www.lifestyleblock.co.nz/forum/your-place/36278-where-to-buy-an-a2-dairy-cow

"LIC charge $22.50 + GST for the test, though there is also the cost for collecting the blood/tissue sample, and there is a 6 week turnaround."

So the question is, does the premium offer price compensate for the A2 test and all the ancillary downstream costs? For one farmer, on one farm the answer is 'no' as the cost of duplication of stock handling and separation of herd facilities is too great. But what is the situation if the farmer wants to sell their cows outright?

If only one in three cows is fully A2, then the average test cost will be 3x $22.50 + GST (because you don't know if the cows you test will be A2 in advance). So that is $75.94 per A2 cow, on average. To test 100 cows would cost $7600, plus the collection fees. I reckon you would be doing well to get a vet to do this for 100 cows for $2,400. So round figures, we are talking $10,000 for 100 cows to 'do the test', and get 33 pure A2 cows identified.

Then say the premium milk price offered is 7%, and an A2 cow is worth 5% more as a result. At $2,300 per A1 cow, that would suggest an A2 premium of $115 on the A1 cow price. Over 33 cows this adds up to $3,795. So our farmer doing the 'cow swap' might expect a $3795 payout for 33 cows, after incurring costs of $10,000. And that means the farmer selling the cows would be looking at a 'net loss' of:

$10,000 - $3,795 = $6,205!

This is without including transport costs or stockyard fees. So to me the economics of 'cow swapping' look unviable, which is possibly why I have never heard of a farmer who has done it! Still a great many investors in ATM believe it is going to happen. Go figure!


Time to take another look at these figures. How much would ATM have to pay if they really wanted to up their contracted A2 herd at well beyond the rate of natural breeding? If the incremental amount they have to pay over and above the price of an equivalent(*) A1 cow is 'f', then using the figures from my example above 'f' must satisfy the following equation

f[33 x $2300] > [($10,000) + (33 x $2300)] => f >1.13

So ATM would need pay farmers a 13% premium for their A2 cows just to allow them to break even, excluding transport costs and buying/selling agents fees. Obviously A2 could pay this premium to get a quick increase in A2 milk supply. But it would consummately reduce the profit margin too.

(*) Not sure there is such a thing as an 'equivalent A1 cow'. I know that a high proportion of Jersey cows are A2. But Jersey cows are also physically smaller. So if the overall milk yield on an A1 Holstein-Friesian is 20% higher than an A2 Jersey, and ATM is prepared to pay a 13% premium to swap an A2 cow for an A1 cow, that means the A2 Jersey will still be worth less than an A1 Holstein-Fresian, because the A2 price premium does not compensate for the lesser milk yield. This is another good reason for a farmer 'not to swap' even at a price premium twice that offered by ATM historically.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

A quick look at the rather lowball fair values:



ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020










EPS

12.29

21.18

27.90

34.90



DCF per share

9.15

18.96

26.94

34.81



$3 Earnings Multiple

24.41

14.16

10.75

8.60



$3 DCF Multiple

32.79

15.82

11.14

8.62



$4.72 Earnings Multiple

38.41

22.29

16.92

13.52



$4.72 DCF Multiple

51.58

24.89

17.52

13.56



Industry average PE is 30x

These fair values imply that the forecasted growth of 25-30% from 2018 onwards is not going to happen.
U76
I most certainly don't agree with those values in the current climate.
I think people might be pre-empting a big guidance which could be setting themselves up for disappointment, the bar will keep rising again and again until A2M fails to reach it... perhaps you guys believe this is the year for failure?

The market will be unforgiving of any failure so I understand the reservations on this one...

What does your model say is ‘fair price’

Betcha you don’t run Monte Carlo simulations as part of your model

[hardt]

What does your model say is ‘fair price’

Betcha you don’t run Monte Carlo simulations as part of your model

Quite comfortable adjusting for the foreseeable risks to a business/industry qualitatively, see what it would do to the model and the impact it would have on valuations.

My fair value had moved into $6.90 after CFDA approval.

Feel free to post your Monte Carlo valuation though.

Would be interested to see the probability a Monte Carlo came up with on ATM returning 400% last year?

All I look for in a stock is whether or not I am going to make money on it, inherent value provides a safety net... but It is not needed.
Might be shocking to some, actively looking to help build the bullish bubble as much as possible and short the bearish collapse that follows.

[see weed]

The quick and the dead around here. a2m had a 24c swing within 3mins. Had an order in for 7.95 but missed out. By the time I clicked back it was back over $8 something:eek2:.

[misterx]

The quick and the dead around here. a2m had a 25c swing within 3mins. Had an order in for 7.95 but missed out. By the time I clicked back it was back over $8 something:eek2:.
the swing makes me sick... jesus how does one hold shares like this..

[Clints]

The quick and the dead around here. a2m had a 24c swing within 3mins. Had an order in for 7.95 but missed out. By the time I clicked back it was back over $8 something:eek2:.

I managed to pickup a few thousand at $7.90 (after being out for a week)

Must admit, I have slept better for not having these shares lately :)

[couta1]

Shorters trying their parasitic best to pull the price down, that's what they do and exist for.

[longy]

I don't like them... their practices seemed nasty but legal.... What a ***ked up world! However, they do present buyers with opportunity to buy and sell also

[winner69]

ATM would be a boring as anything with the shorters and daytraders to keep the excitement going.

[couta1]

ATM would be a boring as anything with the shorters and daytraders to keep the excitement going. We need garden variety traders but not shorters mate. PS- I think you mean without not with.

[Jaiden]

Shorters trying their parasitic best to pull the price down, that's what they do and exist for.
Or it's the current price is inflated by market hype, and this is just merely a correction.
Plenty of people's estimates of the share's fair value on this thread have been below the current value, so it's a possibility.

[hardt]

Shorts are an essential part of the market, great tool for investors as well.

There is a hugely different reaction to when a bull gets it wrong and when a bear gets it wrong.

Which is why I don't openly state what I am short on, I have been short on A2M as I hold ATM - shorting A2 is often a horrible experience for people.

[arc]

Time to take another look at these figures. How much would ATM have to pay if they really wanted to up their contracted A2 herd at well beyond the rate of natural breeding?
SNOOPY

Complex issue. As far as Im aware there is almost no "natural breeding", its all artificial methods these days. The industry focues on gathering and storing the Bulls "output". The cows tend to be just receivers of the output. The overall "quality" of the cow with its performance as a breeder, milk producer, herd temperament, Health issues etc all factor into the program. In reality both sets of genetics play a role in the end product being A2 capable or not. So specific DNA patterns coding for the desired a2 expression will need to be found categorized and selectively promoted. Remember those charts we saw in primary school depicting Mendel's (the monk) cross breeding of pea plants and the chances of specific traits being dominant or recessive/latent..

Edit: Some smaller sized cows have large udders and deliver more milk than physically larger cows.. another factor/variable in the equations.

[Snow Leopard]

While I think all this price action is great fun, I can understand that the late-comers are not so happy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[thestg]

Any guesses if a Dividend will be announced on the 21st, if so how much?

[winner69]

While I think all this price action is great fun, I can understand that the late-comers are not so happy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Probably not ...everybody seems to be winning ....and happy ...even on the down days

[see weed]

Any guesses if a Dividend will be announced on the 21st, if so how much?
5c to 10c would be nice.;)

[sb9]

5c to 10c would be nice.;)

My pick is make it worthwhile to call it a special, it had to be a minimum of 10c.

That would be an outflow of $72mln in funds. Remember they had $120mln as at end of Jun'17 and we are four months into new FY. As per my post the other day, they would be sitting on close to $165-$170 mln cash on hand as at end Oct'17.

10c special would still leave plenty on table of $100mln to execute their other plans, like share buyback and marketing expenses. If they wish they could do something like 12.5c as special dividend.

[Clints]

Has anyone seen the China study thread on HC?


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29070042

Thoughts

[777]

My pick is make it worthwhile to call it a special, it had to be a minimum of 10c.

That would be an outflow of $72mln in funds. Remember they had $120mln as at end of Jun'17 and we are four months into new FY. As per my post the other day, they would be sitting on close to $165-$170 mln cash on hand as at end Oct'17.

10c special would still leave plenty on table of $100mln to execute their other plans, like share buyback and marketing expenses. If they wish they could do something like 12.5c as special dividend.


A special dividend would indicate that a regular dividend was not going to be paid. Hardly likely in my opinion.

[Beagle]

With such demand growth I think they should just reinvest all money back into meeting existing demand and R&D creating new products and of course marketing...I for one can't see the point of a dividend or a buy-back anymore at this stage.

[Leftfield]

Has anyone seen the China study thread on HC?


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29070042

Thoughts

Perhaps timed for the impending Court Case, but haven't we seen these results before?

[moka]

ATM would be a boring as anything with the shorters and daytraders to keep the excitement going.

Personally I like boring. I could not be a trader working in a fast-paced environment. Boring is good, stocks like boring old Ryman in the old days, slowly and steadily increasing in price. Ryman is not boring now though and it went from $9.80 to $8.80 in less than a month. There probably are lots of investors like me who like boring - sitting on your hands watching your shares rise.
Buying or selling ATM at the moment is more like gambling than investing in my opinion. I don’t like being manipulated and that it is how it feels to me. I don’t like bullies who deliberately do or say things to push my buttons and get a reaction and that is how I see ATM at the moment. Prices are being pushed up and down rapidly – creating fear and confusion.

I don’t mind volatility when there is a battle between the bulls and bears like there is with retirement stocks at the moment, but I don’t like it when the market is manipulated more by traders then genuine buyers and sellers.

Some traders want excitement more than they want money.
Colin Nicholson -The Aggressive Investor. “ Invest or trade. Jesse Livermore said he made most of his money sitting on his hands. True but not very exciting. One trader told me he traded in and and out of a share all year. Yet it was in an uptrend the whole year. To make a lot of money all he had to do was buy it and hold it.”

[couta1]

Personally I like boring. I could not be a trader working in a fast-paced environment. Boring is good, stocks like boring old Ryman in the old days, slowly and steadily increasing in price. Ryman is not boring now though and it went from $9.80 to $8.80 in less than a month. There probably are lots of investors like me who like boring - sitting on your hands watching your shares rise.
Buying or selling ATM at the moment is more like gambling than investing in my opinion. I don’t like being manipulated and that it is how it feels to me. I don’t like bullies who deliberately do or say things to push my buttons and get a reaction and that is how I see ATM at the moment. Prices are being pushed up and down rapidly – creating fear and confusion.

I don’t mind volatility when there is a battle between the bulls and bears like there is with retirement stocks at the moment, but I don’t like it when the market is manipulated more by traders then genuine buyers and sellers.

Some traders want excitement more than they want money.
Colin Nicholson -The Aggressive Investor. “ Invest or trade. Jesse Livermore said he made most of his money sitting on his hands. True but not very exciting. One trader told me he traded in and and out of a share all year. Yet it was in an uptrend the whole year. To make a lot of money all he had to do was buy it and hold it.” Boring is good and trading is also good. However dishonest manipulation is not good and that's what occurs with this stock, you have bigger players issuing downgrades at the same time as they are accumulating.

[minimoke]

Personally I like boring. I quite like boring as well - but maybe with a bit of excitement mixed in. Got my eye on SUM, ATM and SML but all these seem way to hyped at the moment so happy to sit back and wait for a bit more stability.

[gbogo]

Going into ASX100 soon?

[RupertBear]

Personally I like boring. I could not be a trader working in a fast-paced environment. Boring is good, stocks like boring old Ryman in the old days, slowly and steadily increasing in price. Ryman is not boring now though and it went from $9.80 to $8.80 in less than a month. There probably are lots of investors like me who like boring - sitting on your hands watching your shares rise.
Buying or selling ATM at the moment is more like gambling than investing in my opinion. I don’t like being manipulated and that it is how it feels to me. I don’t like bullies who deliberately do or say things to push my buttons and get a reaction and that is how I see ATM at the moment. Prices are being pushed up and down rapidly – creating fear and confusion.

I don’t mind volatility when there is a battle between the bulls and bears like there is with retirement stocks at the moment, but I don’t like it when the market is manipulated more by traders then genuine buyers and sellers.

Some traders want excitement more than they want money.
Colin Nicholson -The Aggressive Investor. “ Invest or trade. Jesse Livermore said he made most of his money sitting on his hands. True but not very exciting. One trader told me he traded in and and out of a share all year. Yet it was in an uptrend the whole year. To make a lot of money all he had to do was buy it and hold it.”

Well said Moka. I dont know which way the sp is going from one minute to the next. Dont know whether to jump on or jump off at the moment :confused: SML on a downward slide as well :(

[couta1]

Well said Moka. I dont know which way the sp is going from one minute to the next. Dont know whether to jump on or jump off at the moment :confused: SML on a downward slide as well :( Stay put and let the insto's play their games, that's how they get cheap shares, dump a good number to take profits, which causes panic selling by smaller fish plus triggers lots of stoplosses on the way down, they can then buy back in cheaper.

[Leftfield]

As ATM bounces around looking for 'support', it will be interesting to see where it settles after the next update due 21 Nov 17.

Here’s the updated summary of ST valuations including Snoopy’s, PT’s and Hardt’s latest…..

Snoopy - $NZ 3.00
PT - $NZ 4.72
BP Brokers - $A 5.85
Left field - $NZ 7.50
Hardt - $NZ 8.60 to …..$51.58 ( open to interpretation - am I being fair Hardt?)
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10


In the meantime I expect more volatility.

[RupertBear]

Stay put and let the insto's play their games, that's how they get cheap shares, dump a good number to take profits, which causes panic selling by smaller fish plus triggers lots of stoplosses on the way down, they can then buy back in cheaper.

Cheers thanks Couta :)

[petty]

Thanks for the advice couta1. Always a struggle to understand when a good time to sell is. Have kept the finger off the sell button all the way up and its more than tempting now on this current slide.

[hardt]

As ATM bounces around looking for 'support', it will be interesting to see where it settles after the next update due 21 Nov 17.

Here’s the updated summary of ST valuations including Snoopy’s, PT’s and Hardt’s latest…..

Snoopy - $NZ 3.00
PT - $NZ 4.72
BP Brokers - $A 5.85
Left field - $NZ 7.50
Hardt - $NZ 8.60 to …..$51.58 ( open to interpretation - am I being fair Hardt?)
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10


In the meantime I expect more volatility.

My Fair value is $6.90

My price target is $100 :p

[see weed]

What is that saying, be greedy when others are fearful. Positive AGM coming up in less than a week hopefully ;). Sorry, 2weeks.

[sb9]

What is that saying, be greedy when others are fearful. Positive AGM coming up in less than a week hopefully ;).

Make that 2 weeks, ASM is on 21st.

My pick is that the selling isn't finished yet by the big boys, its not the shorters that are causing the pain this time going by the shorts volume over recent period. They haven't gone up substantially, meaning the big boys are out there playing games to lock in some profits before ASM and hopefully pick some cheap ones from retail holders. They're definitely not getting any of mine though, if you're long term holder you'd have rocks in your mind to sell now.

That's my 2c, pls DYOR.

[Beagle]

ATM has enjoyed a MASSIVE run but has now clearly broken through the 30 day MA. Good luck to holders.

[suse]

looks like it will be another low day for ATM. I'm with sb9, not selling. It took me so long to actually get around to buying in there is no way I'm letting go now. Fortunately still in the black, but ouch it must hurt if you bought in at the high $8s

[winner69]

Neighbour says the bowling club guys are getting a bit worried.

Still up but thinking they have another dud ‘investment’


Told them early on chasing the riches on the share market with their term deposit money wasn’t a good idea

[RupertBear]

Fisher funds latest newletter said the volitility its due to Australian and Asian cumputer driven day traders not profit takers, doesnt make a bear feel any better thou, wish they would p... off.

[Beagle]

Neighbour says the bowling club guys are getting a bit worried.

Still up but thinking they have another dud ‘investment’


Told them early on chasing the riches on the share market with their term deposit money wasn’t a good idea
Hope they weren't latecomers to the Synlait party too. Got smashed yesterday, (was tempted to catch a falling knife but like to keep my paws / pads in mint condition) and getting hit again today.

[RupertBear]

What is that saying, be greedy when others are fearful. Positive AGM coming up in less than a week hopefully ;).

Wish I had a bit of spare cash and I would be grabbing a few myself

[moka]

I hope it does not go down to $7. I would be forced to buy because it is a bargain and I am a greedy pig. But I am already too fat, overweight with A2 milk. It will be much more than $7 in a year’s time. It takes courage to be a pig.

[couta1]

I'm currently down 35k if that helps anyone feel better. Nothing like with Air a year or so ago when it was at it's low, I was down over 200k.

[Clints]

I'm currently down 35k if that helps anyone feel better. Nothing like with Air a year or so ago when it was at it's low, I was down over 200k.

Thats my total holding in A2, I brought at 5.9 sold at 6.7 and brought back at 7.9 yesterday.

[moka]

NZX Top Falls




Code




Name




Last Traded
Price




Market
Movement




%
Movement




SML (https://www.asb.co.nz/tools/securitiesfeeds/Market/Summary)
SYNLAIT
$6.69
0.58
8%


ATM (https://www.asb.co.nz/tools/securitiesfeeds/Market/Summary)
a2 Milk
$7.36
0.26
3.4%

[enzed staffy]

Raced past your target of $7 Moke

[Sideshow Bob]

Thats my total holding in A2, I brought at 5.9 sold at 6.7 and brought back at 7.9 yesterday.

$7.33 this morning. Well in the black but could be tempted to top up.

Believers have just under 2 weeks until the AGM, and presumably the next update.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Haven't seen this on the forum for awhile, but always good as a reminder.

9271

[RGR367]

Just bought half of what I sold 3 weeks ago. Wow, this is turning like XRO.

[steveb]

yes just got some at $6.90 either way its not a bad price. My last buy was at $3.15!

[JeremyALD]

SML is getting absolutely smashed down to 6.50

[kerryo]

SML is getting absolutely smashed down to 6.50

Too illiquid .... nowhere to run.

[nocomment]

apologies to everyone SMLs freefall is my fault ... i just bought the other day at 785 ... i guess everyone who bought months ago are rushing to cash in before they lose all their gains

[tipsy]

SML is getting absolutely smashed down to 6.50

That's almost 20% in just over a day.

[bull....]

this is cool a :) love the volitility , did ya know you can short atm in aus

[Oliver Mander]

my stop losses (second set of them ) were triggered at $8.10 on the way down...still a believer and want to buy back in again...just a case of catching the knife so it doesn't cut my paws off.
ATM wasn't the only stop loss triggered last week though...a couple of others were also. Watching with cashed-up interest at the moment.

[see weed]

Haven't seen this on the forum for awhile, but always good as a reminder.

9271
Good aye. That would be over a 4 or 6 week period? If it goes to low, then take over offer, then sp jump to 25 dolla :)

[steveb]

the aussie opening should be worth watching a couple of sellers at A$6.00 trying to mop up,but looks like it might settle at A$6.25

[Baa_Baa]

my stop losses (second set of them ) were triggered at $8.10 on the way down...

Well done you! Not swimming naked, shows the value of stop losses, lock in profits and watch the carnage from the sidelines. Don't be too hasty trying to catch falling knives, wait for the bottom and a confirmed uptick which will come, sometime.

[Beagle]

my stop losses (second set of them ) were triggered at $8.10 on the way down...still a believer and want to buy back in again...just a case of catching the knife so it doesn't cut my paws off.
ATM wasn't the only stop loss triggered last week though...a couple of others were also. Watching with cashed-up interest at the moment.

I find rubbing A2 milk into cut / burn't paw pads doesn't heal or soothe them. Too hot in the kitchen for this hound but I have good mates who are still big holders so I hope this works out okay for them and others.

[Oliver Mander]

I find rubbing A2 milk into cut / burn't paw pads doesn't heal or soothe them. Too hot in the kitchen for this hound but I have good mates who are still big holders so I hope this works out okay for them and others.

You might be right my four-legged friend. My own paws are actually looking pretty glossy at the moment following my long drink of A2 milk. But the bowl is empty at the moment.
And you're quite correct, I don't want cut or burnt paw pads...

[RupertBear]

Broke into my piggy bank and nibbled a few at $7.10 :eek2: go up now please :D

[winner69]

Broke into my piggy bank and nibbled a few at $7.10 :eek2: go up now please :D

I reckon it’ll end up for the day

You will have done well

[thestg]

Couldn't resist the bargain this morning so doubled down on my holdings at $6.94 just before AUS opened. recovering nicely.

[gbogo]

If it can close above the open, say $7.56, that would be a strong technical buy signal.

[BlackPeter]

Haven't seen this on the forum for awhile, but always good as a reminder.

9271

Absolutely. Just wondering in which state we currently are with this stock. Anxiety - or did the denial phase already start?

Discl: used my rocks to sell out and wait on the sidelines until SP represents again fair value.

[Joshuatree]

Has it been through the Milky Way phase already:D

[winner69]

Absolutely. Just wondering in which state we currently are with this stock. Anxiety - or did the denial phase already start?

Discl: used my rocks to sell out and wait on the sidelines until SP represents again fair value.

Somewhere between euphoria and anxiety I reckon

[Balance]

One view from Oz :

https://www.fool.com.au/2017/11/08/why-these-4-asx-shares-sank-into-the-red-today-2/

"The a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M) share price has continued its decline and is down a further 2% to $6.68. At one stage today the infant formula company’s shares were down as much as 5% as investors continued to take profit ahead of its annual general meeting on November 22. I would stay clear of it until its AGM update."

https://www.fool.com.au/2017/11/01/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-shares-sank-8-lower-today/

Why did its shares sink lower?

With no news out of the company or broker notes to speak of, it is likely that investors have been spooked by a change in substantial holding announced yesterday afternoon.

According to the announcement, Colonial First State Asset Management has trimmed back its holding in the dairy company from a 6.4% stake to a 5.4% stake.

Although no explanation was given for the selling, it is likely that the asset manager has decided to take a bit of profit off the table following its stellar share price gain this year.

After all, a2 Milk’s shares are up well over 250% since the start of the year thanks to impressive sales into the lucrative China market.

Should you buy the dip?

While I think a2 Milk is one of the best buy and hold investment options on the market, I wouldn’t be a buyer at this share price.

At least not until the company has held its annual general meeting later this month. If it fails to deliver a sales update which justifies the recent share price gains, then there’s every chance that its shares could tumble lower.

In light of this, I think the prudent thing to do is to keep your powder dry and wait patiently for its November 22 meeting.

[BlackPeter]

I often disagree with the fool, but I think this time their view is spot on. I will wait for the AGM and buy back when the facts are on the table. Might cost a wee premium if the data are better than the market expected (but hey - how good do they need to be to justify even the current already moderated price), but in my view more likely will save some money.

[couta1]

Apparently pre orders for A2 are going ballistic leading into singles day on the 11th. Hope holders have got their full fireproof kit on in case it gets hot in the kitchen again today.

[silu]

Apparently pre orders for A2 are going ballistic leading into singles day on the 11th. Hope holders have got their full fireproof kit on in case it gets hot in the kitchen again today.

Did I see this right and the pre-orders for one single A2M product alone totals more than 2 million for Singles Day?

[MikeE]

What is singles day? i.e. what does it refer to?

[mondograss]

11th November 11/11 It's basically a big sale day but also a celebration of being single.

[couta1]

Did I see this right and the pre-orders for one single A2M product alone totals more than 2 million for Singles Day? Yep, more than 2 mill so far just for stage 3 product alone.

[winner69]

Yep, more than 2 mill so far just for stage 3 product alone.

How many zillions of dollars for A2 is this?

[couta1]

How many zillions of dollars for A2 is this? That's dollar value winner, not number of tins.

[Scooter]

is there a link we can see?

[iceman]

Yep, more than 2 mill so far just for stage 3 product alone.

Interesting that all these singles are buying baby formula. Wonder what they're planning the dirty buggers !

[Sideshow Bob]

Apparently pre orders for A2 are going ballistic leading into singles day on the 11th. Hope holders have got their full fireproof kit on in case it gets hot in the kitchen again today.

I am of the understanding that a lot of product (ie powder) has been going airfreight for a while, rather than going seafreight to Australia/China. While it costs more, presumably sales are going that well and need to keep product up to customers.....

[t.rexjr]

Anyone know where to get hold of some of this elusive powdered stuff in NZ?

[Balance]

is there a link we can see?

Fake news it seems from the Rampers Hotcopper site about this Single Days A2M.

No link, no verification and no sp reaction this time round so the ramper must be feeling rather sore?

[Jonboyz]

"The November 11 Singles Day is China’s biggest online shopping event, and many consumers buy infant formula as gifts..."

This quote is from last year's news though: (http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/a2-milk-hopes-to-adopt-dividend-policy/news-story/097f989c43a5cf30536e5c586a7e055a)http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/a2-milk-hopes-to-adopt-dividend-policy/news-story/097f989c43a5cf30536e5c586a7e055a

But don't see why it shouldn't be similar this year for Singles Day.

[couta1]

"The November 11 Singles Day is China’s biggest online shopping event, and many consumers buy infant formula as gifts..."

This quote is from last year's news though:http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/a2-milk-hopes-to-adopt-dividend-policy/news-story/097f989c43a5cf30536e5c586a7e055a

But don't see why it shouldn't be similar this year for Singles Day. Exactly, whatever way you slice it, it means big sale numbers for A2.

[winner69]

"The November 11 Singles Day is China’s biggest online shopping event, and many consumers buy infant formula as gifts..."

This quote is from last year's news though: (http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/a2-milk-hopes-to-adopt-dividend-policy/news-story/097f989c43a5cf30536e5c586a7e055a)http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/a2-milk-hopes-to-adopt-dividend-policy/news-story/097f989c43a5cf30536e5c586a7e055a

But don't see why it shouldn't be similar this year for Singles Day.

No no no ... not similar ......heaps more surely

[couta1]

Fake news it seems from the Rampers Hotcopper site about this Single Days A2M.

No link, no verification and no sp reaction this time round so the ramper must be feeling rather sore? Looks like you are wrong about the SP reaction, it's moving up.

[Balance]

Looks like you are wrong about the SP reaction, it's moving up.

Haha - you are watching second by second, are you?
Rather sad, isn't it?

[couta1]

Haha - you are watching second by second, are you?
Rather sad, isn't it? Full enjoyment requires Full attention.

[Balance]

Full enjoyment requires Full attention.

Good on you!

[Ted2]

Hooray a blue arrow at last! I have plenty of fat (avg.57c) but the last few days has had me wondering if too much panic might set in as each cent movement makes a hefty difference for me. But despite the current price needing a good result, I can't help but think they will again surprise on the upside.

[Sideshow Bob]

But despite the current price needing a good result, I can't help but think they will again surprise on the upside.

They do have a history of surprising on the upside. The day they don't could be a tad more interesting.....

[minimoke]

Exactly, whatever way you slice it, it means big sale numbers for A2.
I though product volumes were finite. Which mean if stock is all sold on 11/11 there are zero sales on 12/11

[Tee]

Vultures circle in the air
Marauding elephants on the ground
Sharks in the swollen seas
Even the Bull and Bear retreat
Tis the time of the Great Gloom
Think lest be doomed

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/
Average analyst target price (one year from now) is $6.14 on sales expectations of $774m up 41% on last year's $549m.

Anyone's guess what the market's expectations are to support a $7.50 price ??? but logic would suggest the market may be hoping for guidance perhaps $100m north of that ?

If updated guidance at the annual meeting is not around $850m as a minimum the SP reaction could be "interesting". Hope shareholders are strapped firmly in, could be an "interesting" ride ahead.

[couta1]

Vultures circle in the air
Marauding elephants on the ground
Sharks in the swollen seas
Even the Bull and Bear retreat
Tis the time of the Great Gloom
Think lest be doomed Sounds about right looking at the NZX staircase at close tonight. PS-Climbing equipment will be needed to climb down the Thursday to Friday step.

[hardt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/alibaba-sales-surge-to-5-billion-in-15-minutes-on-singles-day.html

Singles day is insane, will have to wait to see the numbers of 11/11 at the AGM.

[Clints]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/alibaba-sales-surge-to-5-billion-in-15-minutes-on-singles-day.html

Singles day is insane, will have to wait to see the numbers of 11/11 at the AGM.

Hopefully gives SP a nudge up

[dreamcatcher]

China shopping festival smashes record at halfway mark

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-singles-day-alibaba/china-shopping-festival-smashes-record-at-halfway-mark-idUSKBN1DA1C0

[hardt]

Alibaba's singles day sales of $36.6bn NZD is up 40% on last year - 愛中國

Happy holder of the beautiful a2babaweibo trio.

[hardt]

A2 is the #4 brand by total sales on Kaola.com

A2 stage 3 formula was the highest selling formula on the day at #4 overall in sales by product.

From @cppbug ex Hotcopper

9272

Just 1 website so far, more will be coming out soon.

[couta1]

A2 is the #4 brand by total sales on Kaola.com

A2 stage 3 formula was the highest selling formula on the day at #4 overall in sales by product.

From @cppbug ex Hotcopper

9272

Just 1 website so far, more will be coming out soon. Looking good, ahead of Aptimal and Bellamy's.

[winner69]

Looking good, ahead of Aptimal and Bellamy's.

So how many zillions more for A2 compared to last year

Hope they had enough stock

[hardt]

So how many zillions more for A2 compared to last year

Hope they had enough stock

Part of the platinum tin's allure for the "little emperors" ( 1 kid with 2 parents and 4 grandparents to spoil him/her ) has been the scarcity and overwhelming demand in the past... makes it exclusive.

Either way, if they managed to reach #4 overall on Kaola.com you would think they had enough product to sell.

[Clints]

Anyone want to hazard a guess on what the SP may do tomorrow (if anything)

[Leftfield]

A2 is the #4 brand by total sales on Kaola.com

A2 stage 3 formula was the highest selling formula on the day at #4 overall in sales by product.

.

Thanks for this info' Hardt. I appreciate ATM's 'doubling of production' is only part of the equation - they still need to sell their white powdered gold (platinum) and from your info' it looks v promising.

[RupertBear]

Anyone want to hazard a guess on what the SP may do tomorrow (if anything)

I have a feeling it may go up :D but then it may go straight back down again :scared:

[couta1]

I have a feeling it may go up :D but then it may go straight back down again :scared: Umm, I'd say both up:) and down:mad ;: should cover it.

[see weed]

Anyone want to hazard a guess on what the SP may do tomorrow (if anything)
It is up to the shareholders. If they want the share price to go down they will sell. Or they could wait for AGM. Or they could buy and ATM will carry on it's merry way.:)

[Clints]

Court case with Lion postponed until 2018 (date TBA)

[winner69]

Got to be an up week this week

Well over 9 bucks I reckon ....maybe even 9 bucks Aussie

[see weed]

Got to be an up week this week

Well over 9 bucks I reckon ....maybe even 9 bucks Aussie
Anything is possible. From my experience of atm my first lot of buys was on 2/7/14. Have found that every time I sell,thought I could get in later when it dropped back, but have been punished every time having to pay more. Could this be the little drop back before the next rocket ship to $9, $10 or $11?