ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Clints]

Pretty picture on the ASX

9273

[couta1]

Umm, I'd say both up:) and down:mad ;: should cover it. Yep, just as I thought, bit of euphoria followed by that flat feeling.

[steveb]

Yep, just as I thought, bit of euphoria followed by that flat feeling.

Keep taking the euphoria drugs it's on the way back up!

[see weed]

Yep, just as I thought, bit of euphoria followed by that flat feeling.
Last week bought some and they went down...punished.... so sold them and then they went back up...punished... so bought more thinking they were on their way back up then they went down again...punished. Today did nothing... rewarded so far:confused:.

[sb9]

Last week bought some and they went down...punished.... so sold them and then they went back up...punished... so bought more thinking they were on their way back up then they went down again...punished. Today did nothing... rewarded so far:confused:.

Yeah very hard bit tops ad bottoms with this one. Just stick with your target price and go accordingly.

Thought of topping up some this morning but price jumped too fast and was out of my target price range pretty soon. Instead picked up some SML at the open when it was still down a bit.

[couta1]

Last week bought some and they went down...punished.... so sold them and then they went back up...punished... so bought more thinking they were on their way back up then they went down again...punished. Today did nothing... rewarded so far:confused:. This things all over the place, like a ship without a rudder, just random movements wherever the wind and tide take it. Just keep a look out for icebergs.:eek2:

[gbogo]

I'm still bullish on this thing but the current price action suggests a short-term top. Too many new longs stranded up above $8 will cap it for a while. Buy below $7 if it ever gets there..

[see weed]

This things all over the place, like a ship without a rudder, just random movements wherever the wind and tide take it. Just keep a look out for icebergs.:eek2:
Don't know about the rudder, but this bit of seaweed got caught in the propeller last week. Happier today though, is this the turn heading into AGM. I am expecting a good result carrying on from last year results, maybe $850m+ and div. this year hopefully.

[Clints]

Don't know about the rudder, but this bit of seaweed got caught in the propeller last week. Happier today though, is this the turn heading into AGM. I am expecting a good result carrying on from last year results, maybe $850m+ and div. this year hopefully.

Hopefully we see a run up to the AGM, results are looking pretty good. I must admit I took a wee beating last week. Was hard to find out best place to jump in and out.

[longy]

Hopefully we see a run up to the AGM, results are looking pretty good. I must admit I took a wee beating last week. Was hard to find out best place to jump in and out.

I have been averaging down for the whole of last week... That wasn't nice.... Very tempting to load up some more this morning but I will sit on my hands for now I think. Please DYOR but I think the charts are starting to look positively.

[see weed]

Last week bought some and they went down...punished.... so sold them and then they went back up...punished... so bought more thinking they were on their way back up then they went down again...punished. Today did nothing... rewarded so far:confused:.
Did nothing yesterday and got rewarded. Might try the same today. Maybe others are doing the same...not many sellers...sp goes up;).

[whatsup]

The business radio programme said this morning that the update at next weeks AGM will be worth while and Im picking that it will be a very exciting and interesting affair .

[Sideshow Bob]

The business radio programme said this morning that the update at next weeks AGM will be worth while and Im picking that it will be a very exciting and interesting affair .

Let's hope their track record of under-promising and over-delivering continues to next week.....certainly yesterdays preso points that the trend will continue......

[Sideshow Bob]

On an slightly unrelated note, the goat guys seem to be going well.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/98849439/dairy-goat-cooperative-earns-177m-in-revenue-last-season

$18/Kg for milk solids - wonder how that compares with cows economically for farmers?? Turnover $2.45m per supplier on average.

[kiora]

On an slightly unrelated note, the goat guys seem to be going well.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/98849439/dairy-goat-cooperative-earns-177m-in-revenue-last-season

$18/Kg for milk solids - wonder how that compares with cows economically for farmers?? Turnover $2.45m per supplier on average.

About 200% better :)

[G on]

cow = 377kg milk solids a year.
goat= 10.92 kg mild solids per year.
34 goats = 1 cow milk production .
Therefore cost of feed and space for 34 goats compared to 1 cow= 200% better ???

[Clints]

cow = 377kg milk solids a year.
goat= 10.92 kg mild solids per year.
34 goats = 1 cow milk production .
Therefore cost of feed and space for 34 goats compared to 1 cow= 200% better ???

And goats are just nasty

[tipsy]

And goats are just nasty

They're a ****ing nightmare to manage. Standard fencing won't keep them where you want 'em.

[couta1]

They're a ****ing nightmare to manage. Standard fencing won't keep them where you want 'em. I recall from my younger years, they weren't much fun to shear either.

[RupertBear]

I recall from my younger years, they weren't much fun to shear either.

Well this share is shearing a few hairs off my head with its ups and downs! :eek2:

[kiora]

cow = 377kg milk solids a year.
goat= 10.92 kg mild solids per year.
34 goats = 1 cow milk production .
Therefore cost of feed and space for 34 goats compared to 1 cow= 200% better ???

Umh 'Six months into its first milking season, the 550 goats are producing 0.21 kilograms of milksolids per head a day' So they only milk them for 55 days/yr?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/9584453/Milking-goats-makes-en-e

[kiora]

They're a ****ing nightmare to manage. Standard fencing won't keep them where you want 'em.

Maybe one of the reasons milking goats are all housed?

[tipsy]

Maybe one of the reasons milking goats are all housed?

Yeah, seems to be the most common approach these days.

From http://www.dgc.co.nz/farming.cfm

DGC farmers utilise different farming systems. The first is a free range grazing system where the goats are taken to their feed. The more common system is when locally grown grass and forages are brought directly to the goats who are housed in open sided free stall barns. The goats still have exposure to natural lighting and fresh air can move freely through the shelter or barn.

[limmy]

Why discuss goats in A2 thread?

[Snow Leopard]

paid posters funded by the Goat lobby.

[see weed]

Wonder if a2 will follow xero and leave nzx. The Ausies own most of a2 now don't they?, The sp manipulation from the 60,000 holder, once the 30,000 holder, up and down and up and down all afternoon is enough to rattle the cage and scare any sh into selling. Or a take over bid by the Americans or the Chinese for $9 a share before it gets too well known in USA. $7, $8, $9 per share was just a dream to me 33 months ago. What sp in 33 months from now $17, $18 or $19 when Kiwis own less than 5%, another dream? Look forward to positive AGM in 4 buss. days :t_up:. PS Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Balance]

What happened to the huge daily volumes?

Trading today looks anemic compared to the multi-million units traded every day.

Smells like the big holders have taken the opportunity to play the game and lighten into the volumes?

[see weed]

What happened to the huge daily volumes?

Trading today looks anemic compared to the multi-million units traded every day.

Smells like the big holders have taken the opportunity to play the game and lighten into the volumes?
Have you noticed a very very slight up trend in the last 2 days:), on the ASX chart. Slightly higher highs and higher lows:t_up:. What do you think, back over $8 next Tue. afternoon after all the up grading and good news. Get in now folks, before it's too late, only 3 an a bit days to go :D.

[couta1]

What happened to the huge daily volumes?

Trading today looks anemic compared to the multi-million units traded every day.

Smells like the big holders have taken the opportunity to play the game and lighten into the volumes? Welcome to your daily fix of Game of Thrones, who needs a fantasy program.

[kiora]

What happened to the huge daily volumes?

Trading today looks anemic compared to the multi-million units traded every day.

Smells like the big holders have taken the opportunity to play the game and lighten into the volumes?

Yes very telling?

[see weed]

Arrr no, here we go again, where will it end, up up an away :t_up:.

[moka]

Have you noticed a very very slight up trend in the last 2 days:), on the ASX chart. Slightly higher highs and higher lows:t_up:. What do you think, back over $8 next Tue. afternoon after all the up grading and good news. Get in now folks, before it's too late, only 3 an a bit days to go :D.

Back over $8.00 now Friday afternoon.

[whatsup]

IMO a2m/atm is firming up re the AGM presentation next Tues.

[sb9]

News from across he ditch, Macquarie rates ATM as "Outperform" and raises target price to NZ 8.40.

Source: HotCopper.

[kizame]

Volume is very low these last few days,no large commitment,some are waiting to see whether the forward comments are going to be positive enough.

[Beagle]

Volume is very low these last few days,no large commitment,some are waiting to see whether the forward comments are going to be positive enough.

That hits the nail right on the head. SP has had a tremendous run and is sales growth this year strong enough to underpin how the shares have already performed ? That's the $64,000 question as they say, (although I'd wager quite a few on here have quite a bit more than that amount riding on it).
Disc: Currently don't own but have a modest stake in Synlait. Might consider buying again when these have de-risked a bit / sales numbers come out to justify the stratospheric SP growth.

[moka]

News from across he ditch, Macquarie rates ATM as "Outperform" and raises target price to NZ 8.40.

Source: HotCopper.

On ASB in research Morningstar puts ATM’s value as 3 average, while XRO’s value is 5 lowest. Also lower risk 2 with ATM than 3 average for XRO. Both have growth 1 highest. Interesting. Morningstar do not provide a valuation on ASB but it probably won’t be long before they do cover it.
https://www.asb.co.nz/asb-securities/stock-quote-atm-nzx.html

[Leftfield]

News from across he ditch, Macquarie rates ATM as "Outperform" and raises target price to NZ 8.40. Source: HotCopper.

Yee ha..... going to be an interesting week next week!

[sb9]

Yee ha..... going to be an interesting week next week!

Sure does, also don't forget SML's ASM is exactly a week later on 29th....so it'll be interesting 2 weeks....

[sb9]

On ASB in research Morningstar puts ATM’s value as 3 average, while XRO’s value is 5 lowest. Also lower risk 2 with ATM than 3 average for XRO. Both have growth 1 highest. Interesting. Morningstar do not provide a valuation on ASB but it probably won’t be long before they do cover it.
https://www.asb.co.nz/asb-securities/stock-quote-atm-nzx.html

With no due respect to Morningstar's recommendations, my primary school daughter can do a much better analysis of numbers....:p

[Snoopy]

On ASB in research Morningstar puts ATM’s value as 3 average,.....


Good to see someone else agreeing with my $3 valuation.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Good to see someone else agreeing with my $3 valuation.

SNOOPY A lot could be said about this but it wouldn't be polite.

[Oliver Mander]

Good to see someone else agreeing with my $3 valuation.

SNOOPY

Would have thought the valuation is whatever someone is prepared to pay...
If you're prepared to pay only $3...probably need to accept that 99.9% of people would not sell to you for that price.
Even my rather conservative cashflow modelling is coming up with something over $5...and that's with a HEFTY discount rate to account for the risk. If I apply a more normal discount rate, coming up with something around the current share price.

Disc: hold (again).

[dumbfounded]

A lot could be said about this but it wouldn't be polite.
How true...can't even utter the words!

[moka]

Good to see someone else agreeing with my $3 valuation.

SNOOPY

Sorry to disappoint you Snoopy Morningstar is not agreeing with you.
On a scale of 1=high to 5=lowest, Morningstar is saying ATM’s value is 3 = average = fair value, while XRO's value is 5 = lowest = overpriced.

[blobbles]

Good to see someone else agreeing with my $3 valuation.

SNOOPY

I remember a 10c valuation from Snoopy a few years ago when the SP was ~50c. I encourage you to think about the future a bit more Snoopy, rather than where they currently are. Factor growth and potential into your calculations like the market does!

[kizame]

I remember a 10c valuation from Snoopy a few years ago when the SP was ~50c. I encourage you to think about the future a bit more Snoopy, rather than where they currently are. Factor growth and potential into your calculations like the market does!

If you look at the valuation snoopy has put on this at $3, and the 10c valuation when the price was 50c,can we now expect a share price of $15,another five bagger.

[kizame]

Watching closely on the sidelines for Tuesdays comments, I will be back in if the forward projections look good,otherwise happy to let the dust settle.
Needs a wee rest.

[777]

Watching closely on the sidelines for Tuesdays comments, I will be back in if the forward projections look good,otherwise happy to let the dust settle.
Needs a wee rest.

I take it you have read last weeks info.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171113/pdf/43p538mqwxnyjp.pdf

How much extra are they likely to say at the AGM considering this is so recent except for details of any dividend in the near future.

[greenglass]

You will notice from the presentation that a2 are now making a point of saying their products are A1 protein free. The forward ramifications of this will be huge in the future. IMO
discl. Hold

[Leftfield]

How much extra are they likely to say at the AGM considering this is so recent except for details of any dividend in the near future.

Quite a lot more expected IMHO.....including;
- first look at 1st half FY2018 figures
- forecasts for full year FY 2018
- profitability projections and news re possible dividend or other investments
- responses to Snoopy's A2 milk supply concerns (just kidding - this is not really likely, but you never know!)

[Sideshow Bob]

And off she goes.....over $8 bucks again.

Looking forward to tomorrow morning's announcement.

[hardt]

No room for under performance tomorrow.

I see another outperform coming though... Will have to wait and see whether or not the current SP has that fully priced.

[couta1]

No room for under performance tomorrow.

I see another outperform coming though... Will have to wait and see whether or not the current SP has that fully priced. You can never underestimate the short term hype factor with this stock, fully priced or not,lots of excitement and anticipation in the air regardless.

[winner69]

You can never underestimate the short term hype factor with this stock, fully priced or not,lots of excitement and anticipation in the air regardless.

So true Couts

Fundamentals mean very little at the moment - it’s all about positive vibes, hype and excitement and those nasty daytraders playing games.

[sb9]

Very healthy sign not to see the price getting ahead itself day before the ASM or else it might get sold off tomorrow, which will be the case of "sell on news" rather it might be "buy on news" tomorrow.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/announcements/310633

Just what the doc ordered....

"Synlait Auckland Officially Opened"

[couta1]

https://nzx.com/announcements/310633

Just what the doc ordered....

"Synlait Auckland Officially Opened" Perfect timing just before the AGM, the expected good news tomorrow combined with a probably inclusion in the ASX100 next month, means it's unlikely to see the SP stay down for too long.

[see weed]

https://nzx.com/announcements/310633

Just what the doc ordered....

"Synlait Auckland Officially Opened"
Yes very good news. Synlait to double their capacity from 32,000 to 64,000 tons. A2 to......their capacity? A2 holds 8.2% of Synlait shares...win win:t_up:.

[see weed]

Perfect timing just before the AGM, the expected good news tomorrow combined with a probably inclusion in the ASX100 next month, means it's unlikely to see the SP stay down for too long.
Yes, and good luck to all holders. Anyone going to AGM today? Going to be an interesting day.

[silu]

FYI The AGM can be accessed online here https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/register/a2MC17

[forest]

I will see you there for a coffee with A2milk. :)

[MikeE]

What time does it kick-off / will we see an announcement?

[winner69]

What time does it kick-off / will we see an announcement?


Just visualise it ...it will happen

[silu]

What time does it kick-off / will we see an announcement?

11.30am kick off

[MikeE]

Haha my milk is starting to froth

[Oliver Mander]

is anyone else a bit nervous that they have not released any result details before the meeting...?
Could it be they are setting up for a surprise on the downside...?

[hardt]

What time does it kick-off / will we see an announcement?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/309732/268930.pdf

If you are a shareholder, use the online portal to attend the AGM @virtualmeeting.co.nz

[JeremyALD]

is anyone else a bit nervous that they have not released any result details before the meeting...?
Could it be they are setting up for a surprise on the downside...?

Given how volatile this stock is it concerns me too, but I'm pretty sure they have done this before?

[see weed]

is anyone else a bit nervous that they have not released any result details before the meeting...?
Could it be they are setting up for a surprise on the downside...?
Investor Presentation 13/11/17 might help.

[couta1]

Given how volatile this stock is it concerns me too, but I'm pretty sure they have done this before? Doesn't really matter unless your trading the stock, can't see anything less than a double digit SP a year from now ,so no need to panic.

[mondograss]

They released at 12:40 last year, so evidently they don't release until the beginning of the AGM.

[bonne vie]

All in a holding pattern until - presentation. Last trade at market open.

[longy]

Looking pretty good to me.

[couta1]

A big read that report, but 262 mill ytd quite a nice figure.

[Clints]

A big read that report, but 262 mill ytd quite a nice figure.

Anyone else see trading stopped?

[Ggcc]

65%+ growth for 4 months..... that is quite high from the same 4 months last year. Am I reading that correct

[Oliver Mander]

Looks like a great result on the numbers in the reports. Well up on expectations...will be curious to see how it impacts now.
And yes, trading seems to have been halted.

[Sideshow Bob]

EBITDA up 122% on the corresponding 4 months.

Not bad.....

[hardt]

65%+ growth for 4 months..... that is quite high from the same 4 months last year. Am I reading that correct

+65% Revenue
+120% EBITDA
+122% PBT
+137% NPAT

[silu]

I love how us Kiwis say "not bad" while the Aussies type in hyperbole ;)

[hardt]

Love that sweet sublime voice of Geoffrey while he reads me good results... I am in love

[JeremyALD]

That's a massive result. SP has factored this in though? Let's see the reaction :)

[silu]

They beat the already bullish Goldman Sachs forecasts and they believe the target price is A$7.25 (NZ$8.15ish). Current NZX price $8.12 seems about right.

[see weed]

Is it a good meeting? Can't hear or see anything on my Virtual thing:confused:.

[bonne vie]

Full presentation on NZX.Assumed you would have that. Babidge just going thru that now.
:t_up::t_up:

[Leftfield]

Is it a good meeting? Can't hear or see anything on my Virtual thing:confused:.

It's a great meeting and you shouldn't have sold 10k of ATM earlier this morning...... my new projection range for the SP is $NZ8.50 to $NZ12.00

However whether the market agrees will be interesting!

[sb9]

The below is all what you need especially Revenue and NPAT numbers...They would be $1 Bln revenue very easily for this FY and NPAT of at least 200ml. That translates roughly to 28c forward EPS and apply what PE you like, I myself like 40 or 50 and that gives a range of $11.20 to $14.00. Happy to hear others viewpoint.



NZ$ ml
4M18
4M17
% Change


Revenue
262.2
155.2
68.90%


EBITDA
78.4
35.5
120.80%


PBT
78
35
122.90%


NPAT
52.3
22
137.70%

[QOH]

Great virtual meeting, no problem getting into it.

[sb9]

The below is all what you need especially Revenue and NPAT numbers...They would be $1 Bln revenue very easily for this FY and NPAT of at least 200ml. That translates roughly to 28c forward EPS and apply what PE you like, I myself like 40 or 50 and that gives a range of $11.20 to $14.00. Happy to hear others viewpoint.



NZ$ ml

4M18

4M17

% Change



Revenue

262.2

155.2

68.90%



EBITDA

78.4

35.5

120.80%



PBT

78

35

122.90%



NPAT

52.3

22

137.70%





Sorry got carried away thinking those numbers are for 3 months but they are for 4 months.

So my revised numbers are Revenue of $850ml and NPAT of $175ml and that gives revised forward EPS of 24c. Based on this my revised price range based on PE of 40-50 is
$9.60 - $12.00.

[Leftfield]

Agree SB9 I was being a tab conservative with a humble 30 PE..... exciting times to be a holder.

[hardt]

Sorry got carried away thinking those numbers are for 3 months but they are for 4 months.

So my revised numbers are Revenue of $850ml and NPAT of $175ml and that gives revised forward EPS of 24c. Based on this my revised price range based on PE of 40-50 is
$9.60 - $12.00.

I would expect a hefty re-rate under 40x as the law of large numbers takes hold of their % growth.... whether that is next year or never ( who knows )

[Beagle]

Good solid numbers. Shareholders should be happy with that.

[hardt]

Geez... there are some awful questions coming in...These people do not listen at all.

Geoffrey is bright red answering these mongoloids questions about Fresha Valley.

[see weed]

It's a great meeting and you shouldn't have sold 10k of ATM earlier this morning...... my new projection range for the SP is $NZ8.50 to $NZ12.00

However whether the market agrees will be interesting!
I didn't sell 10,000 this morning. A bit pi..sed off I didn't go to meeting. Is there any way of getting a video of meeting after it has finished. Not up to all this new tech.

[bonne vie]

Geez... there are some awful questions coming in...These people do not listen at all.

Geoffrey is bright red answering these mongoloids questions about Fresha Valley.

Seems unusual , doesnt appear to be any institutions asking questions like normal

[sb9]

I would expect a hefty re-rate under 40x as the law of large numbers takes hold of their % growth.... whether that is next year or never ( who knows )

I wouldn't think so....large numbers are part of bigger growth yet to unfold.

One thing quite distinctive I've noticed in Geoff's tone of voice this morning at ASM re the court case with Lion, he sounded extremely positive and bullish that they're going win this case and fight aggressively to achieve that outcome.

[moka]

FYI The AGM can be accessed online here https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/register/a2MC17

Thank you for posting the link Silu, it worked well. It wasn’t on my to-do list today but it was time well spent. My first AGM and it was a virtual one and I didn’t have to worry about parking in central Auckland, much easier. Technology is amazing. I just had to make my own cup of tea afterwards, no virtual cup of tea yet.

[Leftfield]

I didn't sell 10,000 this morning. A bit pi..sed off I didn't go to meeting. Is there any way of getting a video of meeting after it has finished. Not up to all this new tech.

Glad to hear... my apologies. The original post has now seemingly disappeared, however someone posted they got nervous this morn and sold 10k ATM shares and I mistakingly thought it was you. Apologies and relief.

Check out the ATM website as the video of the meeting may appear there. V impressive.

[see weed]

Glad to hear... my apologies. The original post has now seemingly disappeared, however someone posted they got nervous this morn and sold 10k ATM shares and I mistakingly thought it was you. Apologies and relief.

Check out the ATM website as the video of the meeting may appear there. V impressive.
Thanks, apology accepted. I did post this morning about half hour after open that someone a bit nervous had sold a bit over 10,000. I deleted it, not wanting to jinx the market, but did sell a little bit this afternoon at 5k profit.

[Nasi Goreng]

Geez... there are some awful questions coming in...These people do not listen at all.

Geoffrey is bright red answering these mongoloids questions about Fresha Valley.

Was there an update on A2 branded milk for sale in NZ?

[see weed]

Any mention of dividend?

[okay]

Geoff and David always put on a well organised and professionally delivered ASM. I went a couple of years ago, but just did the virtual one this year, which worked well.

They were quite coy about the use of capital. Maybe they have a potential acquisition or investment in mind in the nutrition area? Just pure speculation. Their timing of the investment in the Synlait stake was excellent.

They have a very good management team, so I would be comfortable with them keeping the capital available for any use they think fits their expansion and growth plans.

[okay]

Any mention of dividend?

They didn't rule anything out or in. They said they would update after the half year results in February.

[Leftfield]

Was there an update on A2 branded milk for sale in NZ?

Yes, my take was that the current agreement with Fresha has expired, and they are in active negotiations with Fresha re future developments. Other than that nothing substantive, I suspect their priorities are USA and Asia.

[silu]

Just a little word of mouth but my friend in Dallas, Texas has reported that the local mum group has been discussing the benefits of A2 milk and she is the type of soccer mum that knows what she wants and where to get it.

[Snoopy]

It's a great meeting and you shouldn't have sold 10k of ATM earlier this morning...... my new projection range for the SP is $NZ8.50 to $NZ12.00


Some very selective reading of the results being reported here. The two points that stood out for mere are below:

From p30
"Inventory reduction reflects strong infant formula demand exceeding stock availability."

From p6, outlining future strategies for FY2018 and beyind:
"Development of sourcing strategies for nutritional products to support growth initiatives."

Translation: They have sold down all the stock they can and don't yet have a supply strategy in place to meet projected future demand. Exactly as I suspected.

More from today's AGM presentation:

NPAT: $90.6m

No Shares on issue: 718,238,067

eps = 12.6c

Share price at $3 gives a PE of: 300/12.6 = 24

This is a very generous PE for a company that cannot crank up production in any hurry, but I think that ATM deserves this premium. My $3 valuation still looks spot on.

SNOOPY

[see weed]

Yes, my take was that the current agreement with Fresha has expired, and they are in active negotiations with Fresha re future developments. Other than that nothing substantive, I suspect their priorities are USA and Asia.
What do ya think, all positive news in the paper etc tomorrow, and new wave of buyers come through. Might get to 8.50 and $12 buy Christmas go baby go:t_up:.

[Leftfield]

What do ya think, all positive news in the paper etc tomorrow, and new wave of buyers come through. Might get to 8.50 and $12 buy Christmas go baby go:t_up:.

Yep I'm v bullish, bought more today, so now back over 60% of my portfolio (average hold price less than $1.00.) Fabulous stock, fabulous management.

Heading to $NZ 10.00 soon IMHO. North of $12.00 by Feb 18.

[sb9]

Yep I'm v bullish, bought more today, so now back over 60% of my portfolio (average hold price less than $1.00.) Fabulous stock, fabulous management.

Heading to $NZ 10.00 soon IMHO. North of $12.00 by Feb 18.

Yes, its definitely heading to 2 digit number soon in my opinion, it could be as early as this year or early next year. One things is sure though by Feb 18, which is FH 18 results time, price won't be in single digit barring any major disaster....which is very unlikely but you never know.

Few more points that I tht are worth their mention:

- We've Synlait's upcoming ASM next wed, which might add to further bullish sentiment in the short term.

- ATM would be sitting on close to $175ml cash on hand as of today, they didn't announce any divvy or outlined plans for any share buyback as signalled earlier. They seem to be very coy about their future plans with the use of capital which make think they've some big plans up their sleeves and keeping a tight lid on things.

- Their balance sheet would be envy of any blue chip company with zero debt, plenty of cash on hand and their investment in Synlait more then doubled in a years time.

That's all for now.

PS - Just one bit of negative I noticed is re the re-lection of Chairman Mr Hearn, he got close to 25% of votes against, not sure what to read into that.

[see weed]

Yep I'm v bullish, bought more today, so now back over 60% of my portfolio (average hold price less than $1.00.) Fabulous stock, fabulous management.

Heading to $NZ 10.00 soon IMHO. North of $12.00 by Feb 18.
Had to sell down some today, I'm about 90% of portfolio now, but am 200k in the green and keeping a close eye on it, but missed the bl..dy meeting, so the eye wasn't that close after all today:).

[Leftfield]

Yes, its definitely heading to 2 digit number soon in my opinion.....

PS - Just one bit of negative I noticed is re the re-lection of Chairman Mr Hearn, he got close to 25% of votes against, not sure what to read into that.

Yes I noticed that..... like you, not sure what to read into it. Could it be his age?

[JeremyALD]

Yes I noticed that..... like you, not sure what to read into it. Could it be his age?

Little snippet from the AFR

Despite the strong share price gains, some investors appear unhappy with chairman David Hearn, who received a 24.8 per cent protest vote against his re-election at the meeting.

Mr Hearn carries out some executive functions, which clashes with corporate governance guidelines upheld by many Australian proxy advisers.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-company-considers-dividends-as-profit-surges-20171121-gzpjf6#ixzz4z3SuDFAz

[misterx]

Amazing presentation and results.. double digits so for this stock may not be just a dream after all.

[Leftfield]

Little snippet from the AFR

Despite the strong share price gains, some investors appear unhappy with chairman David Hearn, who received a 24.8 per cent protest vote against his re-election at the meeting.

Mr Hearn carries out some executive functions, which clashes with corporate governance guidelines upheld by many Australian proxy advisers.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-company-considers-dividends-as-profit-surges-20171121-gzpjf6#ixzz4z3SuDFAz

Thanks JeremyALD, I couldn't get access to the article, but hope ATM takes heed.

[gbogo]

I love this stock. Seems like great management team, always over-delivering. However, I can't be buying more here or above $7.50 at the moment. That recent plummet to $6.95 seems forgotten. People couldn't get out it was so fast. I think many of those people will be relieved to sell into this current rally. It also seems scarily one-way bullish sentiment on here. Seems like a crowded trade with everyone who wants to get on, having had their chance to get in. I watch with interest for a while.

[Sideshow Bob]

Amazing presentation and results.. double digits so for this stock may not be just a dream after all.

Didn't you read Snoopy's post on the last page? It's still worth $3......

[silu]

Didn't you read Snoopy's post on the last page? It's still worth $3......

Snoopy is rational - the market isn't

[black knat]

Forbar upgrade this morning to "outperform". Target price $9.50.

[winner69]

Forbar upgrade this morning to "outperform". Target price $9.50.

What $9.50 in a years time ....jeez be over $10 by Christmas

But gives us the warm fuzzies eh

[Sideshow Bob]

Forbar upgrade this morning to "outperform". Target price $9.50.

Craigs updated research gives a 'neutral' view and $7.00 price target.

[Balance]

Craigs updated research gives a 'neutral' view and $7.00 price target.

Who is ATM house poodle ...oops, broker?

[Beagle]

Who is ATM house poodle ...oops, broker?

LOL you naughty dog :)

[RupertBear]

Craigs updated research gives a 'neutral' view and $7.00 price target.

I maybe wrong but think that TP is from October, not sure they have re rated it since yesterday yet :confused:

[gbogo]

FNZC to $8.50 from $7.65 but Neutral from Outperform.

[sb9]

Few more upgrades coming from across the ditch, Goldman Sachs - $8.85 and Macquarie - $9.20 (revised upwards from their recent $8.40, I think).

[Leftfield]

I'm relieved none of the brokers updates (nor the market) seems to be aligning with Snoopy's "My $3 valuation still looks spot on."

The phrase, "paralysis by analysis' springs to mind.:cool:

[Sideshow Bob]

I maybe wrong but think that TP is from October, not sure they have re rated it since yesterday yet :confused:

File said 5/10 but had "Research View 22nd November 2017" on it, and mentioned the current price of $8.26.

[Sideshow Bob]

Few more upgrades coming from across the ditch, Goldman Sachs - $8.85 and Macquarie - $9.20 (revised upwards from their recent $8.40, I think).

AUD or NZD?? :p

[Ggcc]

I'm relieved none of the brokers updates (nor the market) seems to be aligning with Snoopy's "My $3 valuation still looks spot on."

The phrase, "paralysis by analysis' springs to mind.:cool:









Hey everyone is entitled to their opinion. I prefer everyones opinion on things whether seen as silly or not. Snoopy is conservative and there is nothing wrong with that. It is great to think working people can put there money into A2, but if I was retired and had no other income other than from stocks, A2 would not be the stock for me as it is too volatile.

[Leftfield]

Hey everyone is entitled to their opinion. I prefer everyones opinion on things whether seen as silly or not. Snoopy is conservative and there is nothing wrong with that. It is great to think working people can put there money into A2, but if I was retired and had no other income other than from stocks, A2 would not be the stock for me as it is too volatile.

All cool Ggcc. Totally agree we are all entitled to our opinions. For the record, I am retired and ATM has benefitted my savings by over $400k.

[see weed]

Hold onto your hats. Glad I didn't sell too many the other day. Still making $750 every time it goes up 1c:t_up:.

[Ggcc]

All cool Ggcc. Totally agree we are all entitled to our opinions. For the record, I am retired and ATM has benefitted my savings by over $400k.
Nice to hear you are doing well. A2 is a great company and doing well, but hopping onto the sharemarket, a lot of retired people can't afford to lose $400,000. In fact most elderly I discuss with would have less than $400,000 to their name.

I hope the ride continues as I have invested well, but I am only 42 so still have a long working life ahead of me. I would rather invest in A2 than Xero at company valuations. Different business I know, but one makes profit and the other one does not....... yet.

[Balance]

Spare a thought today for those who shorted ATM!

[Leftfield]

Spare a thought today for those who shorted ATM!

Exactly!

Apparently Macquaries have today lifted their expectations to $NZ 9.20. Exciting times for holders.

[couta1]

Spare a thought today for those who shorted ATM!Not feeling the love for them.

[Beagle]

9286
Interesting seeing the correlation between synliat and ATM over the last six months

[minimoke]

9286
Interesting seeing the correlation between synliat and ATM over the last six months
Which is why I've just bought some SML. ATM getting too rich for me and I figure SML has some catching up to do.

[sb9]

9286
Interesting seeing the correlation between synliat and ATM over the last six months

Yes very interesting, wanted to buy some more ATM y'day but it moved too quickly from my price range, luckily bought SML last week under $7 mark, happy with that and in the meantime my ATM parcel keeps getting fatter and fatter :t_up::D

[Beagle]

Which is why I've just bought some SML. ATM getting too rich for me and I figure SML has some catching up to do.

Classic bob each way on both horses is probably best and pick up the Quinella :)

[see weed]

Spare a thought today for those who shorted ATM!
Those shorty people got me scared last week and tricked me into selling and buying and selling and buying again, the only problem I sold at the bottom and bought half way up the other side. Went from 99k to 76 back up to 89 back to 76 back up to 88k then back to 83k. Didn't know weather I was coming or going. That happened over 8 business days 31/10/17 to 10/11/17 about $2 swing.:scared:

[NZSilver]

Target price out from maquarie of $9.20 NZD, then when it hits ASX100 even more buying should push it higher. Seems overvalued to me but then it looks like its going to run a few $$ higher than it is sitting now, so what i think dosn't really matter. Just enjoy the ride... Then again its growth is staggering, and the question over what they will do with their 180 million sitting in the coffers....

[moka]

During the meeting someone asked about new products and suggested milk biscuits. David and Geoff looked at each other and didn’t want to say too much and they did say “Make the assumption we are looking much broader than Infant Food and A2 Fresh Milk.” So it sounded like there are some new products in the pipeline.

[sb9]

Strong finish on ASX y'day at an all time high of 7.93, which augurs well for ATM today. With bullish run still in tact we might see the price push towards $9 mark either today or tomorrow.

On a side note, the volume on ASX for y'day and day before equates to volume on big sell down day on 1st Nov. That kinda explains how the big boys play their game.

[NZSilver]

Yep $9-$10 not far off now, let it run as the trend is our friend here, plenty to like about this company but the price; it's all about the future.

[minimoke]

During the meeting someone asked about new products and suggested milk biscuits. David and Geoff looked at each other and didn’t want to say too much and they did say “Make the assumption we are looking much broader than Infant Food and A2 Fresh Milk.” So it sounded like there are some new products in the pipeline.
Given finite supply of A2 raw material presumably this is product with lower manufacture cost and higher margin.

[RupertBear]

File said 5/10 but had "Research View 22nd November 2017" on it, and mentioned the current price of $8.26.

I have noticed all their research reports have the current date on the top irrespective of when they were written. It is a tad confusing. They have updated their report today with a TP of $8.10

[silu]

We have reached an all-time High. Time to celebrate with a black coffee and some filtered water.

[BigBob]

Boom...!!! and there's $9....

[sb9]

There we've it, just hit $9....

[winner69]

Neighbour and his mates down the bowling club so so happy and excited some are going to take what’s left in their term deposits and buy more ATM. One even considering cashing in his KiwiSaver to do the same.

Nothing can go wrong

Bloody good eh .....i’ll Be happy if 10 bucks in a few weeks ...only 10% off

[silu]

Neighbour and his mates down the bowling club so so happy and excited some are going to take what’s left in their term deposits and buy more ATM. One even considering cashing in his KiwiSaver to do the same.

Nothing can go wrong

Bloody good eh .....i’ll Be happy if 10 bucks in a few weeks ...only 10% off

Shots of Metamucil all round.

[Ted2]

Neighbour and his mates down the bowling club so so happy and excited some are going to take what’s left in their term deposits and buy more ATM. One even considering cashing in his KiwiSaver to do the same.

Nothing can go wrong

Bloody good eh .....i’ll Be happy if 10 bucks in a few weeks ...only 10% off

Let me know when the shoeshine boy and Uber driver do the same - then I will bail!

[winner69]

Let me know when the shoeshine boy and Uber driver do the same - then I will bail!


they haven’t recovered what they lost into forays into AIR and CVT yet but now think this share market game is dead easy

[dobby41]

Neighbour and his mates down the bowling club so so happy and excited some are going to take what’s left in their term deposits and buy more ATM. One even considering cashing in his KiwiSaver to do the same.

Nothing can go wrong

In poker it's called 'all in' isn't it?
What could possibly go wrong!

[minimoke]

There we've it, just hit $9....
Time for me to enter the fray and ruin the party. Just picked a parcel up at $8.66

[silu]

The $9 party had all the appearance of awkward teenage sex. Gone to quickly.

[minimoke]

The $9 party had all the appearance of awkward teenage sex. Gone to quickly.
I'm hoping for a quick recovery

[Beagle]

I asked myself this morning where is this stock going to be in five years as they roll out product development ? One minute later I thought, to heck with the short term volatility and bought back in.

[winner69]

I asked myself this morning where is this stock going to be in five years as they roll out product development ? One minute later I thought, to heck with the short term volatility and bought back in.

in 5 years .... a $100 .....and probably will beat EBO there

[Beagle]

in 5 years .... a $100 .....and probably will beat EBO there

Not sure about $100 mate but I think a patient puppy will get a MASSIVE boost to their retirement fund by holding long term. I got to thinking how kind this stock has been to my portfolio this year and it was all very well taking a profit on the extreme volatility BUT...I must learn more patience with my investing... Any way you slice and dice it the recent annual meeting update was a real cracker. Fear of missing out is greater than the fear of volatility or loss...there, it felt good to admit that and get it off my chest lol.

[Leftfield]

I asked myself this morning where is this stock going to be in five years as they roll out product development ? One minute later I thought, to heck with the short term volatility and bought back in.

Well done. That's my thinking too. The Longer term view makes you sleep better. When the recent pre-ATM AGM 'shaking-of-the-tree' sell-down occurred, I simply reminded myself of the longer term view, 'kept calm and carried on.'

I really like the worldwide non capital intensive branding partnership approach of ATM and it reminds me a healthy version of the early days of Coca-Cola....(a much healthier version!)

Lastly these stats taken from a recent article in Australia's ABC news highlights why it is wise for ATM to concentrate on Asia.

Facts: Milk allergies and intolerances
· Approximately 1 in 50 (Australian) infants have cow's milk protein allergies, but most grow out of it by the time they get to school
· Up to 7.5 per cent of (Australian) children have issues with cow's milk protein (either allergy or intolerance).
· Lactose intolerance effects:
7-20% of Caucasians
65-75% of African Descent
Over 90% in some Asian populations
70% Australian Aboriginals.

(My bold)

[RTM]

I'm hoping for a quick recovery

How old are you ?

[minimoke]

Not sure about $100 mate but I think a patient puppy will get a MASSIVE boost to their retirement fund by holding long term.
I am essentially building my retirement fund so taking a long term view with all me recent acquisitions. I'm not going to be a trader as I don't want to get tangled in tax - rather looking for a decent income stream come that happy day. In the meantime this is about laying foundations and looking for growth. Sure there will be setbacks but unless stop loss are triggered I wont be in and out. Some of these stocks are too volatile and there are battles happening I'm happy to leave to others.

[minimoke]

How old are you ?So old even my memory is fading

[dobby41]

There we've it, just hit $9....

And then it was gone.

[Beagle]

Well done. That's my thinking too. The Longer term view makes you sleep better. When the recent pre-ATM AGM 'shaking-of-the-tree' sell-down occurred, I simply reminded myself of the longer term view, 'kept calm and carried on.'

I really like the worldwide non capital intensive branding partnership approach of ATM and it reminds me a healthy version of the early days of Coca-Cola....(a much healthier version!)

Lastly these stats taken from a recent article in Australia's ABC news highlights why it is wise for ATM to concentrate on Asia.

Facts: Milk allergies and intolerances
· Approximately 1 in 50 (Australian) infants have cow's milk protein allergies, but most grow out of it by the time they get to school
· Up to 7.5 per cent of (Australian) children have issues with cow's milk protein (either allergy or intolerance).
· Lactose intolerance effects:
7-20% of Caucasians
65-75% of African Descent
Over 90% in some Asian populations
70% Australian Aboriginals.

(My bold)

Many thanks for that heads-up on lactose intolerance and well done for holding through the volatility. Maybe if I had of been drinking A2 milk the hounds nerves would have been steadier lol
Anyway..in the process of rebuilding my stake, don't want to buy too much on any given day otherwise its easy to get skunked. Buy a bit here and a bit there for the next few days (before the Australian institutions have to buy due to possible ASX100 inclusion)


I am essentially building my retirement fund so taking a long term view with all me recent acquisitions. I'm not going to be a trader as I don't want to get tangled in tax - rather looking for a decent income stream come that happy day. In the meantime this is about laying foundations and looking for growth. Sure there will be setbacks but unless stop loss are triggered I wont be in and out. Some of these stocks are too volatile and there are battles happening I'm happy to leave to others.
Likewise. I need to take a leaf out of Percy's book and simply learn a lot more patience. Holding high growth stocks and being really really patient, its hard to go too far wrong.

[RTM]

Apologies, playing catch up on this one.
How much of a moat does ATM have with this special milk ? I recall someone posted an American link that had a clip on A2 Milk. And if I recall correctly they said it would be relatively easy to turn other production over to A2 milk if indeed it did turn out to be so efficacious ? So what is their exposure to competition arising ? Are they protected by patents ?
Completely missed the boat on this one, although have done well with Synlait which is related.

[Leftfield]

Apologies, playing catch up on this one.
How much of a moat does ATM have with this special milk ? I recall someone posted an American link that had a clip on A2 Milk. And if I recall correctly they said it would be relatively easy to turn other production over to A2 milk if indeed it did turn out to be so efficacious ? So what is their exposure to competition arising ? Are they protected by patents ?
Completely missed the boat on this one, although have done well with Synlait which is related.

This came up a few times at the ASM the response is typically;

1.) ATM have 'first mover' advantage
2.) ATM have IP and patent protection and growing research that they will vigorously defend (as per the court case in Aust - look out Lion!! Next years delayed hearing date not yet set.)
3.) Other milk companies entering the A2 market will need to explain why they are entering it..... and their explanations will need to be good, because in the process they risk "xxxing in their own nest" to coin a phrase. i.e. any move to copy A2 implies tacit agreement with A2's claims.
4.) This is just the beginning for ATM with a heaps of diary product extensions ahead, but for the moment their focus is on fresh milk and infant formula.

[minimoke]

I liken A1 to gluten. A few years ago you had a few Coeliacs who genuinely cant stomach gluten and there was very little "Gluten free" products around. Now every little Henry and Rebecca is gluten intolerant and there are loads of gluten free products around to help them through their parents angst.

Just wait till the perils of A1 hits mainstream media. I have no concern about my recent ATM purchase - even at its grossly inflated price. This will be a long term very positive play.

[moka]

Apologies, playing catch up on this one.
How much of a moat does ATM have with this special milk ? I recall someone posted an American link that had a clip on A2 Milk. And if I recall correctly they said it would be relatively easy to turn other production over to A2 milk if indeed it did turn out to be so efficacious ? So what is their exposure to competition arising ? Are they protected by patents ?
Completely missed the boat on this one, although have done well with Synlait which is related.

It was discussed at the meeting. They have patents although some of them are over 20 years so they have expired but they seem very on to it regarding intellectual property. This did not happen overnight they said. They have been around for 17 years and from 2000 to 2006 their focus was IP development, and the last decade (2007 to 2017) has been focused on targeted growth to get where they are now. They have the advantage of first mover too. Other dairy companies have been sceptical about the benefits of A2 milk up to now.

[RTM]

Thanks Minimoke and Left Field. And well done. Wish I had them.
And Moka as well.
Cheers, RTM
PS. Apple initiated the smart phone, Samsung etc seems to be able to copy them pretty easily. Be interesting to see how this pans out over the longer term.

[moka]

Those shorty people got me scared last week and tricked me into selling and buying and selling and buying again, the only problem I sold at the bottom and bought half way up the other side. Went from 99k to 76 back up to 89 back to 76 back up to 88k then back to 83k. Didn't know weather I was coming or going. That happened over 8 business days 31/10/17 to 10/11/17 about $2 swing.:scared:

I really relate to this see weed - being scared. I have a habit of buying in boom and selling in gloom. It is hard to ride your winners when they are bucking so much. I know that long term ATM is an excellent buy at any price now but when the price drops suddenly the doubts creep in, and the fear rises. This is a work in progress for me. We will be tested again.

I find Mark Douglas’s book The Disciplined Trader is very valuable to help develop a “winning attitude.”
“Fear is immobilising. Mentally it causes us to narrow our focus of attention on the object of our fear (losing money). This means that thoughts about other possibilities, as well as other available information from the market gets blocked. When the event is over and you are no longer afraid then you will think to yourself “I knew that. Why didn’t I think of it then?” or “Why couldn’t I act on it then?”

It is extremely difficult to perceive that the source of these problems is our own inappropriate attitudes. That’s what makes fear so insidious. These thinking patterns are so deeply ingrained that it rarely occurs to us that the source or trading difficulties is internal, derived from our state of mind. Indeed it seems much more natural to see the source of a problem as external, in the market, because it seems like the market is causing our pain, frustration and dissatisfaction.
If we aren’t aware of, or don’t understand, how our beliefs and attitudes affect our perception of market information it will seem as if it is the market’s behaviour that is causing the lack of consistency.

Confidence and fear are contradictory states of mind that both stem from our beliefs and attitudes. To be confident, functioning in an environment where you can easily lose more money than you intend to risk requires absolute trust in yourself.

You can learn to redefine your trading activities is such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid.
You need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless.”

[minimoke]

You can learn to redefine your trading activities is such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid.
You need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless.”
The simplest way to manage the fear is to put in place a stop loss. I Haven't worked out what mine will be on ATM yet. probably around 20% that way I know the most I can loose is 20% thus taking any fear of the markets out of the equation. (that number will need to be firmed up as I am setting up a growth portfolio which I expect will be moderate to high risk - but while some shares will plummet for a while others will fly. So I need to come up with a number that suits my long term aim. I'll end up with something that views the portfolio as a whole rather than purely one share.)

[Balance]

The simplest way to manage the fear is to put in place a stop loss. I Haven't worked out what mine will be on ATM yet. probably around 20% that way I know the most I can loose is 20% thus taking any fear of the markets out of the equation. (that number will need to be firmed up as I am setting up a growth portfolio which I expect will be moderate to high risk - but while some shares will plummet for a while others will fly. So I need to come up with a number that suits my long term aim. I'll end up with something that views the portfolio as a whole rather than purely one share.)

ATM is unquestionably a plaything now for the institutions and traders - great story with great liquidity so the stock lends itself so well to huge swings in sp movements.

The best way to minimize the risk of getting spooked by the wild gyrations is to get comfortable with the company's fundamentals.

Remember that the institutions especially are playing with other people's monies to earn their huge bonuses while the majority of us are investing our hard earned (lifelong) savings.

[moka]

At the ATM meeting a question asked about whether they are considering delisting like Xero and the answer was - “no plans and not actively considering it.” There was also a discussion about how counterfeit product in China is a risk which they are actively managing.

[mondograss]

At the ATM meeting a question asked about whether they are considering delisting like Xero and the answer was - “no plans and not actively considering it.” There was also a discussion about how counterfeit product in China is a risk which they are actively managing.

Maybe this?
http://www.afr.com/business/agriculture/beston-foods-to-spin-off-big-data-tech-business-20171121-gzqbce

[Baa_Baa]

ATM is unquestionably a plaything now for the institutions and traders - great story with great liquidity so the stock lends itself so well to huge swings in sp movements.

The best way to minimize the risk of getting spooked by the wild gyrations is to get comfortable with the company's fundamentals.

While it has the attention of insto's and traders it will also chart well, for example yesterday was a double top test and fail then today a double top breakout failure and the retreat followed swiftly at about the same time the boards were ecstatic about reaching $9. The simple indicators are also working well, for example the RSI pointing down, MACD struggling to cross up and hold, and Money Flow has been pointing down since the previous high. This gives a 'thinness' to the recent rally, supported by modest volume.

Like you say Balance, if people buy into the fundamentals they will probably not be watching the daily share price action, have a decent stop loss margin in place to cover their butts and check out the SP every few months or so. But for momentum swing trading the charts help a lot and clearly there's money to be made for those inclined.

[RupertBear]

There we've it, just hit $9....

Geez I feel sorry for the poor buggers that bought them :( but grateful it wasnt me buying at the top this time :) Aww well I am sure $9 will seem cheap in the not to distant future :D

[RupertBear]

While it has the attention of insto's and traders it will also chart well, for example yesterday was a double top test and fail then today a double top breakout failure and the retreat followed swiftly at about the same time the boards were ecstatic about reaching $9. The simple indicators are also working well, for example the RSI pointing down, MACD struggling to cross up and hold, and Money Flow has been pointing down since the previous high. This gives a 'thinness' to the recent rally, supported by modest volume.

Like you say Balance, if people buy into the fundamentals they will probably not be watching the daily share price action, have a decent stop loss margin in place to cover their butts and check out the SP every few months or so. But for momentum swing trading the charts help a lot and clearly there's money to be made for those inclined.


Baa Baa your scaring me! :mellow:

[kizame]

The simplest way to manage the fear is to put in place a stop loss. I Haven't worked out what mine will be on ATM yet. probably around 20% that way I know the most I can loose is 20% thus taking any fear of the markets out of the equation. (that number will need to be firmed up as I am setting up a growth portfolio which I expect will be moderate to high risk - but while some shares will plummet for a while others will fly. So I need to come up with a number that suits my long term aim. I'll end up with something that views the portfolio as a whole rather than purely one share.)

Hi minimoke, ok stoploss this is what I do for EVERY trade. Firstly base your stop on structure not a percentage, structure being a support resistance line this could be either 6.80 or maybe 7.36 if you look at a daily ATM chart you will see what I mean,structure tends to be respected by other traders,they can't see your 20% level. This is good for me as it relates directly to how much of my account I'm prepared to lose,in my case .5% on any trade.
I know where my stop is going to be BEFORE I place the trade. This needs to happen so you can work out how many shares to purchase.

[moka]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/landcorp-making-transformation

"A value chain approach must be part of the solution for Landcorp and all New Zealand farming amid the ever-present challenge of volatility for commodity producers, the country’s biggest farmer says.
"Across our business, we are looking at how to better differentiate what we produce and to move beyond commodity market pricing."
Initiatives with A2 milk, grass-fed milk and conversion to organic milk supply on some dairy farms were part of the strategy. So were fixed price supply contracts for lamb, beef, venison and wool."

[sb9]

Drum roll pls.....

The a2 Milk Company has been named Company of the Year at the prestigious Deloitte Top 200 Awards.

[see weed]

Thanks guys. Like a possum in the $9 DOLLAR HEAD LIGHT, thinking, no worries about stop loss, will think about that at $10. They not getting any more of mine cheaply. The shorty ones:D.

[silu]

so it was 18 years ago a valued colleague of mine said she's going to work for a little unknown company called A2. She did tell me about the benefits of A2 milk and I didn't quite want to understand what she was saying.

[Beagle]

Thanks guys. Like a possum in the $9 DOLLAR HEAD LIGHT, thinking, no worries about stop loss, will think about that at $10. They not getting any more of mine cheaply. The shorty ones:D.

I think the shorter's came out to play yesterday and maybe again today. The hound is ready to play with them from the other side of the sandpit...bring it on.

[minimoke]

I think the shorter's came out to play yesterday and maybe again today. The hound is ready to play with them from the other side of the sandpit...bring it on.Make teh most of it. The action will be over at SML next week.

[moka]

While it has the attention of insto's and traders it will also chart well, for example yesterday was a double top test and fail then today a double top breakout failure and the retreat followed swiftly at about the same time the boards were ecstatic about reaching $9. The simple indicators are also working well, for example the RSI pointing down, MACD struggling to cross up and hold, and Money Flow has been pointing down since the previous high. This gives a 'thinness' to the recent rally, supported by modest volume.

Could you or someone post a chart because I cannot see a double top test and double top breakout. Not sure what I am looking for.
I can see the RSI and Money Flow. Thank you for pointing out that those indicators are pointing down.

[Beagle]

Make teh most of it. The action will be over at SML next week.

Looking to milk both investment opportunities just like you and other cunning investors but rather than looking at trading, like you I reckon the real milking happens by keeping both these long term :)

[Ggcc]

so it was 18 years ago a valued colleague of mine said she's going to work for a little unknown company called A2. She did tell me about the benefits of A2 milk and I didn't quite want to understand what she was saying.
I think most of us fall into that category. Too many intolerances out there nowadays and it was my reason not to believe them initially. But I always knew that people were intolerant to the protein and not the product.

[Baa_Baa]

Could you or someone post a chart because I cannot see a double top test and double top breakout. Not sure what I am looking for.

9290

Daily chart, log scale, 50EMA & 200MA

[see weed]

I think the shorter's came out to play yesterday and maybe again today. The hound is ready to play with them from the other side of the sandpit...bring it on.
Buy some now and buy the other half later. Or buy them all now and even more later. It will be over $9 again soon:cool:.

[gbogo]

I saw that too. Failure to hold $9.00 and close lower makes yesterday quite bearish short-term but maybe longer-term. (I don't hear many naysayers on here - except for $3 valuation-er). Chartists would look to buy at $7.00 area, depending on price action when and if it gets there.

[couta1]

I saw that too. Failure to hold $9.00 and close lower makes yesterday quite bearish short-term but maybe longer-term. (I don't hear many naysayers on here - except for $3 valuation-er). Chartists would look to buy at $7.00 area, depending on price action when and if it gets there. The upcoming inclusion into the ASX 100 will ensure the dips don't last long, $3 valuation is a yeah right kinda moment.

[Snow Leopard]

9290

Daily chart, log scale, 50EMA & 200MA

That is a boring cartoon, who every heard of talking blocks and there is no humour.

Try Calvin and Hobbes (http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/) instead:

http://assets.amuniversal.com/ad8746e052ed0135dd55005056a9545d

PT

[moka]

9290

Daily chart, log scale, 50EMA & 200MA

Thank you for the chart Baa Baa. It is easy to see now.
You are seeing a double top and I am seeing a cup and handle as per William O’Neill – How to Make Money in Stocks. It is really obvious to me when I look at a 2 or 5 year chart. He says there are specific chart patterns that are repeated over and over again. You have a huge advantage once you learn to recognise these patterns that in effect tell you when a stock is under professional accumulation. Find stocks with big increases in sales, earnings and return on equity plus strong chart patterns revealing institutional buying. ATM is certainly under professional accumulation, so I think this is just a little bump in the long term trend.

The cup should be nicely rounded. It is a signal of consolidation within a trend where weaker buyers leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay - which is what is happening with ATM. We’ve had the cup and this is the handle which is a relatively smaller downward movement before the stock moves higher and continues its previous trend.
Perhaps our time frames are different. I am looking long term while the double top is for short term traders?
So Paper Tiger sees a cup and handle too!

[winner69]

Does third time lucky come into this $9 debate

[Snow Leopard]

...So Paper Tiger sees a cup and handle too!

moka I am being my usual cynical self.

It is only a cup and handle if it becomes a cup and handle (stupid name though, like those stars are a crab, pair of scales, mobile phone etc.)

If the price wobbles go another way it is a double top , or triple top with twist, or any of the myriad other patterns that are in the book.

The future is uncertain except that what ever happens you can bet your last piece of chocolate that some TA/chartist will pop up and show you how the charts were clear on it.

Go with the flow
Paper Tiger

[RGR367]

............

It is only a cup and handle if it becomes a cup and handle (stupid name though, like those stars are a crab, pair of scales, mobile phone etc.)

...............

C'mon PT. Cup and/or handle, perfectly fits what the thread is all about,,,,,,,,,,, milk :cool:

[Snow Leopard]

C'mon PT. Cup and/or handle, perfectly fits what the thread is all about,,,,,,,,,,, milk :cool:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1548/23544003293_90395f416b_c.jpg

http://remedygroup.my/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/tiger-white-beer.png

It Is Friday and I am more interested in bottle patterns.

Cheers
Paper Tiger

Disc: Have ATM shares

[GTM 3442]

Pretty self-explanatory. . . the cuts include baby formula.


http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2121377/china-cuts-import-tariffs-range-consumer-goods

[winner69]

Marginal expansion is alive and well with A2M, forecasted to continue expanding as economies of scale takeover.
CAPEX is almost negligible, huge possibility they will put capital to earnings accretive opportunities (not forecasted possible upside)
Assuming* that 4M18 will be a higher proportion of FY18 revenues than 4M17 was to FY17... lower Q seq. growth.
4M17/FY17A = 28%
4M18/FY18E = 32%
Room for upside if sequential growth performed similarly with last year.
31% revenue growth over the next 3 years, I am told, is on the conservative side as well.
However the marginal expansion forecasted could be considered optimistic as net profitability rises to 24%



A2 MILK COMPANY


FY13A


FY14A


FY15A


FY16A


FY17A


FY18E


FY19E


FY20E

CAGR























OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED


94.5


110.8


155.1


352.8


549.2


817.0


1025.0


1240.0

31.19%



Cost of goods sold as a proportion


64.30%


64.00%


64.80%


57.20%


52.03%


49.00%


47.00%


45.00%




Cost of marketing as a proportion


4.80%


8.90%


9.40%


10.30%


7.65%


8.00%


7.50%


7.50%




Cost of logistics as a proportion


7.90%


7.20%


6.00%


4.40%


3.67%


3.60%


3.50%


3.50%




Cost of corporate + other as a proportion


10.70%


15.00%


15.30%


11.40%


11.47%


11.00%


11.00%


11.00%
























Operating Expenses - NZDm


-84.8


-106.6


-151.0


-297.3


-410.9


-585.0


-707.3


-830.8

26.45%























UNDERLYING EBITDA GENERATED


9.7


4.2


4.1


55.5


138.3


232.0


317.8


409.2

43.57%



EBITDA margin


10.26%


3.81%


2.64%


15.73%


25.18%


28.40%


31.00%


33.00%




Depreciation and Amortisation


-


-


-


-2.74


-2.69


-2.80


-2.80


-2.80




Interest income


-


-


-


0.50


0.89


2.10


2.79


3.80




Finance costs


-


-


-


-0.20


-0.14


-0.80


-0.80


-0.80




Income tax expense


-


-


-


-21.86


-48.71


-64.55


-88.74


-114.63
























UNDERLYING NPAT - NZDm


4.0


0.7


-1.1


31.4


90.6


166.0


228.2


294.8

48.18%



Net Profitability


4.20%


0.60%


0.00%


8.90%


16.50%


20.32%


22.26%


23.77%




Operating Cashflow - NZDm


-


-


-


21.50


99.90


164.74


227.19


296.67




Capital expenditure


-


-


-


2.10


2.50


2.50


2.50


2.50
























DISTRIBUTABLE CASHFLOW


-


-


-


19.40


66.20


162.24


224.69


294.17

64.40%



Cash and equivalents - NZDm


20.20


16.00


6.10


69.40


121.00


185.00


320.00


480.00




DCF per share - CPS


-


-


-


2.68


9.15


22.83


31.06


40.67




Underlying EPS - CPS


-


-


-


4.32


12.29


22.95


31.55


40.75


























ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020



EARNINGS PER SHARE

12.29

22.95

31.55

40.75



FORWARD PER AT $850

37.00

26.94

20.86

19.54



SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE

688

946

1223

1500



PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS

0.35

0.80

1.03

1.22



SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE

918

1262

1630

2000



PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS

0.46

1.01

1.37

1.63










FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH

90.01%

35.09%

29.17%

22.70%




Good stuff hardt ....but whenever you post one of your big tables it plays havoc with the screen settings for all of that thread (both on laptop and mobile). Same on the TGH thread. The page becomes so wide you can’t read it ...or you miss half the page and the good stuff

Anybody else have this problem and what’s the fix.

[hardt]

*Reposted without trying to sabotage format*

Marginal expansion is alive and well with A2M, forecasted to continue expanding as economies of scale takeover.
CAPEX is almost negligible, huge possibility they will put capital to earnings accretive opportunities (not forecasted possible upside)
Assuming* that 4M18 will be a higher proportion of FY18 revenues than 4M17 was to FY17... lower Q seq. growth.
4M17/FY17A = 28%
4M18/FY18E = 32%
Room for upside if sequential growth performed similarly with last year.
31% revenue growth over the next 3 years, I am told, is on the conservative side as well.
However the marginal expansion forecasted could be considered optimistic as net profitability rises to 24%



A2 MILK COMPANY


FY17A


FY18E


FY19E


FY20E

CAGR
















OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED


549.2


817.0


1025.0


1240.0

31.19%



Cost of goods sold as a proportion


52.03%


49.00%


47.00%


45.00%




Cost of marketing as a proportion


7.65%


8.00%


7.50%


7.50%




Cost of logistics as a proportion


3.67%


3.60%


3.50%


3.50%




Cost of corporate + other as a proportion


11.47%


11.00%


11.00%


11.00%
















Operating Expenses - NZDm


-410.9


-585.0


-707.3


-830.8

26.45%















UNDERLYING EBITDA GENERATED


138.3


232.0


317.8


409.2

43.57%



EBITDA margin


25.18%


28.40%


31.00%


33.00%




Depreciation and Amortisation


-2.69


-2.80


-2.80


-2.80




Interest income


0.89


2.10


2.79


3.80




Finance costs


-0.14


-0.80


-0.80


-0.80




Income tax expense


-48.71


-64.55


-88.74


-114.63
















UNDERLYING NPAT


90.6


166.0


228.2


294.8

48.18%



Net Profitability


16.50%


20.32%


22.26%


23.77%




Operating Cashflow - NZDm


99.90


164.74


227.19


296.67




Capital expenditure


2.50


2.50


2.50


2.50
















DISTRIBUTABLE CASHFLOW


66.20


162.24


224.69


294.17

64.40%



Cash and equivalents - NZDm


121.00


185.00


320.00


480.00




DCF per share - CPS


9.15


22.43


31.06


40.67




Underlying EPS - CPS


12.29


22.95


31.55


40.75








ATM.NZX

2017

2018

2019

2020



EARNINGS PER SHARE

12.29

22.95

31.55

40.75



FORWARD PER AT $850

37.00

26.94

20.86

19.54



SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE

688

946

1223

1500



PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS

0.35

0.80

1.03

1.22



SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE

918

1262

1630

2000



PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS

0.46

1.01

1.37

1.63










FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH

90.01%

35.09%

29.17%

22.70%

[whome]

Good stuff hardt ....but whenever you post one of your big tables it plays havoc with the screen settings for all of that thread (both on laptop and mobile). Same on the TGH thread. The page becomes so wide you can’t read it ...or you miss half the page and the good stuff

Anybody else have this problem and what’s the fix.
Hey Winner, turn your iPad sideways and it fits! Makes PT's tiger beer advert look better too! Thanks hardt for the analysis. Much appreciated.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

[Leftfield]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Hardt. Nice to have your forward looking estimates (and thankfully not too far from my own.)
In my forecasts I didn't go beyond 2018 so good to have your thoughts.

[dreamcatcher]

a2 Platinum infant formula sales from recent 11/11 Singles Day

No.1 on Kaola.com
No.2 on JD.com
No.3 on Tmall.com

Looking forward to 12/12 next month

[NZSilver]

Here are my numbers estimated for 18

REV approx 900 Million
EBITDA approx 270 Million
Net Income approx 195 Million
Giving EPS 27 cents
27 x PE 30 = $8.21
27 x PE 40 = $10.80

[moka]

The simplest way to manage the fear is to put in place a stop loss. I Haven't worked out what mine will be on ATM yet. probably around 20% that way I know the most I can loose is 20% thus taking any fear of the markets out of the equation. (that number will need to be firmed up as I am setting up a growth portfolio which I expect will be moderate to high risk - but while some shares will plummet for a while others will fly. So I need to come up with a number that suits my long term aim. I'll end up with something that views the portfolio as a whole rather than purely one share.)

If you want to buy and hold stocks as long as you can, simply use a 25% trailing stop as an exit, adjusting it up whenever the stock makes a
new high says Van Tharp in his book Supertrader.
In the book the Art of Execution it says kill all losers at 20 – 33%.
ATM hit a high of $8.84 on 31 October and a low of $6.80 on 8 November so a 25% stop loss on $8.84 = $6.63 would have worked well in this case.

[44wishlists]

Pretty self-explanatory. . . the cuts include baby formula.


http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2121377/china-cuts-import-tariffs-range-consumer-goods

In the article it mentioned "Tariffs on some special infant milk formulas...have been cut to zero, from 20 per cent. But standard infant milk formula is not included in the tax cut."

So is A2Milk categorised as Special Infant Milk Formulas?

[Leftfield]

Here’s my summary of FY18 Forecasts

Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00

It's going to be interesting to see where we are by the next update, end Feb 2018.

[winner69]

So here’s FY18 Forecast summary
Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00

We live in interesting times.

Discount leftfield, hardt and silvers a fraction for their enthusiastic exhuberence and add a bit to Snoopy’s for his undue pessism you get an average of $8.68 as a target (in a years time?)

[winner69]

Hardt - you should extrapolate you Distributial Cashflow out a few more years and put all of them into a DCF and then work out an implied terminal growth rate to support a $9 share price.

Could be interesting what you come up with

[hardt]

Here’s my summary of FY18 Forecasts

Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00

It's going to be interesting to see where we are by the next update, end Feb 2018.

Dont forget Forbarr - $9.50 i think?

[moka]

This weekend I went on a garden tour and started chatting to a retired man about the garden and the weather. He then said “My friends are all advising me to get into the share market.” We then had a conversation about ATM. He is unsure of whether to buy so he was not telling me to buy, which confirms that the TDI indicator still has room to move up.

TDI - The Taxi Driver Indicator
When your taxi driver starts talking to you about the latest "hot stock," we are almost certainly at a market top! Many Manhattan investors have used the taxi driver indicator (https://www.fool.sg/2014/03/22/could-this-be-the-best-economic-indicator/) to gauge when they should be more cautious when it comes to their investments.
When everybody is giving you their stock market opinions, this is typical as a direct result of strong widespread performances among most shares. It also demonstrates that greed has overtaken caution, and people are stampeding into investments.

While not as commonly followed as most economic indicators, the taxi driver indicator should be. Specifically, because it is consistently reliable and accurate.
The point when you see the "taxi driver indicator," it usually implies that the stock market is currently highly overvalued. The next move for investments is typically going to be sharply lower, and usually pretty soon too.
https://www.thebalance.com/little-known-scary-economic-indicators-4114321

[Baa_Baa]

TDI is a bit like the Shoe Shine boy, or when Winner's bowling mates are buying, then start selling, and when they're in the doldrums selling, start buying? It's nice that Winner tells us about the bowling mates, whether there are any or not, as it's a helpful way to interpret the market sentiment around irrational exuberance and desolation. Market sentiment is everything, just have to learn how to tap into it and respond to it.

[777]

My guess is the TDI is not at the level it was before October '87.

[Yoda]

TDI is a bit like the Shoe Shine boy, or when Winner's bowling mates are buying, then start selling, and when they're in the doldrums selling, start buying? It's nice that Winner tells us about the bowling mates, whether there are any or not, as it's a helpful way to interpret the market sentiment around irrational exuberance and desolation. Market sentiment is everything, just have to learn how to tap into it and respond to it.
TDI and SSB indicators were all before the internet . Now we have share-trader and Facebook !

[Leftfield]

Hardt - you should extrapolate you Distributial Cashflow out a few more years and put all of them into a DCF and then work out an implied terminal growth rate to support a $9 share price.

Could be interesting what you come up with

Why bother Winner - just ask your bowling club mates.

[NZSilver]

difference is ATM is generating some serious cash, not just paper profits on some BS asset

[whatsup]

Wonderful short history from Brian Gaynor in Sats N Z Herald well presented and great short history, well done Brian, a clip out story for all S Hers.

[sb9]

Wonderful short history from Brian Gaynor in Sats N Z Herald well presented and great short history, well done Brian, a clip out story for all S Hers.

Here is the link to that article for the benefit of fellow members.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11947698

[kiora]

Awesome job Geoff Babidge !

[minimoke]

NZ wakes up and trading starts at 8.30. Oz wake up and we are at $8.50. Its quite the roller coaster.

[moka]

Links to two articles

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11935724
A2 milk stops some dairy intolerance symptoms - study
The latest findings, being presented at a major conference in Chicago this weekend, found a "strikingly different pattern" of digestive symptoms in people identified as lactose intolerant after drinking A2 Milk compared to conventional milk, study leader Dr Amber Milan said.
Milan, a research fellow at the University of Auckland's Liggins Institute, said the lactose intolerant women in the study reported the same levels of flatulence and gastric reflux on average after drinking A2 Milk as after conventional milk.
"There is some evidence that the symptoms of lactose intolerance may be influenced by the proteins in milk," said study co-author Matthew Barnett, a scientist a Crown research institute AgResearch, which has been carrying out the research alongside Liggins.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11946801
Deloitte Top 200: Company of the Year - a2 Milk Company
The a2 Milk Company's meteoric rise is one of the most spectacular sharemarket ascents in many years.
Once an "alternative" player in dairy, its 250 per cent share price rise in the year to September puts it squarely among the biggest companies on the New Zealand stock exchange. It is also one reason why it beat the pack to take out the much coveted Deloitte & Marsh Company of the Year in this year's Top 200 awards.
Finalists: Briscoe Group & Tourism Holdings

[gbogo]

China cut tariffs last Friday, in order to boost consumer spending.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-trade-tariffs/china-cuts-import-tariffs-on-food-drugs-and-apparel-idUSKBN1DO0T3

ANZ put note out yesterday saying that Infant Formula tariff will be cut from 20% to zero but that competition for NZ exporters may increase. old news? already in the price?

[Clints]

Has anyone seen the NBR article this morning - paid content and I don't have a subscription, if anyone can give a summary that would be good.

[Clints]

WTF - after closing 379,452 shares wanted at 882

Must be going to disappear?!?

628,638 now

[couta1]

WTF - after closing 379,452 shares wanted at 882

Must be going to disappear?!?

628,638 now The wonders of index rebalancing.

[Xerof]

The wonders of index rebalancing.
You have wonderful patience couta, pointing out the market nuances every quarter. The other favourite is the pricing on pre-open and close auctions lol

[couta1]

The A2 coaster up to it's old tricks again, we should expect nothing less.

[Tee]

Tree shaking => Buy the dip. If freefall => Sell the dip.

[couta1]

Tree shaking => Buy the dip. If freefall => Sell the dip. Or, if your buy in price is over $8, just relax and do nothing and watch all the games, won't be long before it shoots off again.

[hardt]

9306

EX hotcopper - Comsec price target is 9.80NZD - released on Friday.

All the analysts covering A2M are packing as much bullish sentiment as possible into A2M

[sb9]

Watching closely now, getting close to my target price range for a top up.

[sb9]

Released on ASX after NZX closed...

“ "6 December 2017 NZX/ASX Market Release
SETTLEMENT OF AUSTRALIAN LEGAL DISPUTE
The a2 Milk Company Limited is pleased to advise that a settlement has been reached in respect of the legal dispute with Lion – Dairy & Drinks Pty Limited. The parties have mutually agreed not to proceed with their cases against each other. The terms of the settlement are confidential. The parties are very satisfied with the outcome and will remain focused on building and maintaining the strength of their individual brands.
For further information contact: The a2 Milk Company Limited Geoffrey Babidge Managing Director and CEO +61 2 9697 7000"

With this ATM is totally de-risked, onwards and upwards for 2018.

[Leftfield]

Released on ASX after NZX closed...

“ "6 December 2017 NZX/ASX Market Release
SETTLEMENT OF AUSTRALIAN LEGAL DISPUTE
The a2 Milk Company Limited is pleased to advise that a settlement has been reached in respect of the legal dispute with Lion – Dairy & Drinks Pty Limited. The parties have mutually agreed not to proceed with their cases against each other. The terms of the settlement are confidential. The parties are very satisfied with the outcome and will remain focused on building and maintaining the strength of their individual brands.
For further information contact: The a2 Milk Company Limited Geoffrey Babidge Managing Director and CEO +61 2 9697 7000"

With this ATM is totally de-risked, onwards and upwards for 2018.

Yee ha! Great news.

[winner69]

Uncertainity gone ....markets love certainty

Will we see a decent rise today?

[Beagle]

Good news indeed !!!

[couta1]

Uncertainity gone ....markets love certainty

Will we see a decent rise today? Lot of selling off going on across the board at the moment, so maybe not.PS-I wonder whose balance sheet will show the impairment for the settlement, one will.

[minimoke]

Market is a fickle beast. Get some good news and down she goes. another 1.5% so far.

[okay]

For what it's worth read this on news.com.au

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/manufacturing/very-satisfied-with-the-outcome-a2-milk-and-lion-settle-duelling-lawsuits-over-health-claims/news-story/2de3b36ee1274f3174c35c2e594a562c

"The parties were scheduled to battle it out in court in November but after months of behind-the-scenes negotiation the deal was signed on Wednesday. News.com.au understands under the terms of the settlement, Lion has agreed to remove the yellow “A2” strip from its labelling. Lion declined to comment further."

[couta1]

Market is a fickle beast. Get some good news and down she goes. another 1.5% so far. Just an ATM machine at this time of the year, fundamentals and news mean diddly sqat. PS-Probably all priced in anyway.

[Beagle]

Just an ATM machine at this time of the year, fundamentals and news mean diddly sqat. PS-Probably all priced in anyway.

Yeap queues at the shops were amazing yesterday according to Mrs Beagle...everyone spending like crazy and hitting their automatic teller machines ATM to fund it.
Normal service will be resumed from 18 December onward ...Synlait Milk now has double the drying capacity so I'm expecting a dramatic increase in ATM's ability to supply product from early 2018 resulting in another huge leg up in ATM sales. Expecting very good things from this company in 2018 and beyond. Just waiting for everyone to stop making withdrawals and then pounce on it like a hungry dog.

[minimoke]

154,000 in one lump at $7.90 isn't helping - someone is overcooking the christmas dinner

[kizame]

Yeap queues at the shops were amazing yesterday according to Mrs Beagle...everyone spending like crazy and hitting their automatic teller machines ATM to fund it.
Normal service will be resumed from 18 December onward ...Synlait Milk now has double the drying capacity so I'm expecting a dramatic increase in ATM's ability to supply product from early 2018 resulting in another huge leg up in ATM sales. Expecting very good things from this company in 2018 and beyond. Just waiting for everyone to stop making withdrawals and then pounce on it like a hungry dog.

I'm with you there,but the more withdrawals the cheaper the buy in,looking forward to that.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm with you there,but the more withdrawals the cheaper the buy in,looking forward to that.

But when is cheap really cheap with a growth stock that has put on 100% gains in just a few months, and on such high PE's? The are the times when a SP has topped and people are taking profits, not buying. Well, that's not completely true is it because the sellers always have a buyer, but whose making the smart decisions? One could look to short term trading indicators like the 50EMA support at 7.667 and the recent gaggle of support at 7.40. If it dropped below those two points, there's something more going on and perhaps better to accept buying a down trend (even a short term one) is not as sensible as buying a confirmed reversal upwards.

[kizame]

But when is cheap really cheap with a growth stock that has put on 100% gains in just a few months, and on such high PE's? The are the times when a SP has topped and people are taking profits, not buying. Well, that's not completely true is it because the sellers always have a buyer, but whose making the smart decisions? One could look to short term trading indicators like the 50EMA support at 7.667 and the recent gaggle of support at 7.40. If it dropped below those two points, there's something more going on and perhaps better to accept buying a down trend (even a short term one) is not as sensible as buying a confirmed reversal upwards.

The PE isn't really that high for a stock growing this fast,with quality earnings,and about 170m in the bank. I didn't mention where I was going to buy in,I will let the market decide that as I always do.
At the moment I see a large flag pattern,this will either break to the upside if there is a catalyst,otherwise the price in my view will continue to cheapen,but I will not risk capital until there is a turnaround in price.
Over the last few days the smart ones are the sellers,there is also US market risk,if they turned then we'll be soft for a while.

[kizame]

Baa_Baa an interesting point though in looking at the charts today,22k shares traded and dropped 5 cents,It would be interesting to know what goes through peoples minds when they decide to buy today or yesterday as an example,with maybe a little bit of support resistance at this level,there is no real reason to purchase right now.Given that it is in a slight downtrend,they would have to be pre-empting any bounce off that s/r level.

[Dust]

Baa_Baa an interesting point though in looking at the charts today,22k shares traded and dropped 5 cents,It would be interesting to know what goes through peoples minds when they decide to buy today or yesterday as an example,with maybe a little bit of support resistance at this level,there is no real reason to purchase right now.Given that it is in a slight downtrend,they would have to be pre-empting any bounce off that s/r level.

Thats your typical rebalancing though isnt it..given it's been on a downtrend recently a lot of people would be underweight.