ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited [Archive] - Page 30

moka

08-12-2017, 11:57 AM

I hope it does not go down to $7. I would be forced to buy because it is a bargain and I am a greedy pig. But I am already too fat, overweight with A2 milk. It will be much more than $7 in a year’s time. It takes courage to be a pig.

I posted that on 08/11/17 - a month ago when I thought anything below $7 was cheap, and now a month later I think anything below $8 is cheap.
I did not buy at $7 coz I wasn’t watching the market when it dropped. I did buy some yesterday, although with hindsight I probably should have waited until today because stocks are often cheaper on Friday.
I have tried to predict from the charts what it is going to do for my own interest. I look at the charts and don’t find them helpful for short term trends. The indicators say the price is going to continue dropping and then price jumps up, and with hindsight I can’t see anything on the chart that would indicate the trend is about to change.

moka

08-12-2017, 12:05 PM

Thank you for the chart Baa Baa. It is easy to see now.
You are seeing a double top and I am seeing a cup and handle
So Paper Tiger sees a cup and handle too!

I think if the downtrend continues the cup with handle is going to become a frying pan with a long handle.

sb9

08-12-2017, 12:09 PM

I think if the downtrend continues the cup with handle is going to become a frying pan with a long handle.

Well, for what its worth A2M didn't make it to the ASX 100 in the latest rebalance.

couta1

08-12-2017, 12:18 PM

Baa_Baa an interesting point though in looking at the charts today,22k shares traded and dropped 5 cents,It would be interesting to know what goes through peoples minds when they decide to buy today or yesterday as an example,with maybe a little bit of support resistance at this level,there is no real reason to purchase right now.Given that it is in a slight downtrend,they would have to be pre-empting any bounce off that s/r level. I can tell you what went through my mind this morning when I bought 12k shares at $7.84 average, it bought my average buy price down from $8.28 to $8.19. PS-Theres always a reason to purchase right now if it's reduces your buy in average in a stock that will hit double digits in the not too distant future.

Balance

08-12-2017, 12:24 PM

Well, for what its worth A2M didn't make it to the ASX 100 in the latest rebalance.

Next rebalance then and ATM will be listed then on ASX, bye bye NZX.

Balance

08-12-2017, 12:32 PM

Next rebalance then and ATM will be listed then on ASX, bye bye NZX.

Notice how ATM now slavishly follows A2M?

ATM NZX shares getting shunted to A2M ASX so matter of time before NZX liquidity becomes bugger all.

kizame

08-12-2017, 01:36 PM

I can tell you what went through my mind this morning when I bought 12k shares at $7.84 average, it bought my average buy price down from $8.28 to $8.19. PS-Theres always a reason to purchase right now if it's reduces your buy in average in a stock that will hit double digits in the not too distant future.

Nice one couta1, I won't do the same just yet,waiting,waiting,waiting...

minimoke

08-12-2017, 03:12 PM

I presume its just coincidence there are 20,000 parcels going at 7.92 and then a cent each up to 7.98

Balance

08-12-2017, 03:15 PM

I presume its just coincidence there are 20,000 parcels going at 7.92 and then a cent each up to 7.98

The ASX and NZX arbitragers are having a field day - that's why.

One way flow of ATM stock from NZX to ASX.

minimoke

08-12-2017, 03:26 PM

The ASX and NZX arbitragers are having a field day - that's why.

One way flow of ATM stock from NZX to ASX.
Thanks
Wondering what it was. Hard to keep up here!

Balance

08-12-2017, 03:36 PM

Thanks
Wondering what it was. Hard to keep up here!

They make 2c or 3c as the exchange rate and sp move around.

Good money if your system can handle the trades and FX conversions.

Leftfield

08-12-2017, 04:27 PM

Nice to see Peter Nathan (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/311659/271442.pdf) buying 10k more shares on the market at these levels. An encouraging vote of confidence for holders.

RupertBear

08-12-2017, 08:49 PM

I can tell you what went through my mind this morning when I bought 12k shares at $7.84 average, it bought my average buy price down from $8.28 to $8.19. PS-Theres always a reason to purchase right now if it's reduces your buy in average in a stock that will hit double digits in the not too distant future.

Jeez Couta you dont do things by half measures do you! :D

kizame

09-12-2017, 01:15 PM

Forbar have outperform rating and target 9.50 based on 4 month performance.

gbogo

13-12-2017, 12:49 PM

And then it was gone.

and not seen since.. this thread has gone surprisingly quiet.

minimoke

13-12-2017, 12:53 PM

Forbar have outperform rating and target 9.50 based on 4 month performance.Which will explain its downwards trajectory since ForBAr said this (note to self - should have learnt to never take anything ForBar says seriously. But no. Fell for it again!)

couta1

13-12-2017, 12:53 PM

and not seen since.. this thread has gone surprisingly quiet. Stock is getting hammered, our currency strengthening against the Aussie isn't helping either. I've been averaging down but it keeps falling so will take a break, long term story hasn't changed and plenty of broker upgrades of late as well. PS-Charts mean diddly squat with this stock, most indicators showing it's oversold, RSI hasn't been below 30 since the stock was around $4.

JeremyALD

13-12-2017, 01:02 PM

I think it's just taking a breather. It you look at its chart run it had to consolidate at some point.

whatsup

13-12-2017, 01:03 PM

Talk about falling knife atm

couta1

13-12-2017, 01:09 PM

I think it's just taking a breather. It you look at its chart run it had to consolidate at some point. More than a breather, nearly 20% down from it's recent high, getting into correction territory.

JeremyALD

13-12-2017, 01:42 PM

More than a breather, nearly 20% down from it's recent high, getting into correction territory.

I can never win with ATM. I always buy and sell at the wrong time so I'm just going to hold my little share for a while. The growth potential is insane so it will bounce back at some point. I am surprised no one seemed to care about the settlement with Lion.

couta1

13-12-2017, 02:07 PM

I can never win with ATM. I always buy and sell at the wrong time so I'm just going to hold my little share for a while. The growth potential is insane so it will bounce back at some point. I am surprised no one seemed to care about the settlement with Lion. Same here, I missed out on the price going from $4 to $8 odd with an XXOS holding over a 3 month period. I was a very nervous holder back then but feel comfortable now holding the stock longer term as it has been derisked IMO. I guess it doesn't really matter whether you pay 50c or so more than you could have when the stock could be worth double the current price in a few years time. At the moment the shorters are in control of the price direction and not fundamentals.

dreamcatcher

13-12-2017, 02:09 PM

Maybe some institutions need to fill the tank ahead of ATM S&P/NZX 10 Index rebalance – Effective at the Open on December 18, 2017 and looking for a bargain.

Valuations from 6 in-house researchers had an average of over $9 the highest been $9.75 so nothing has changed since except China's double 12 shopping spree a repeat of the Double 11 which just finished this morning. No results yet if successful for A2 brand.

sb9

13-12-2017, 02:29 PM

I can never win with ATM. I always buy and sell at the wrong time so I'm just going to hold my little share for a while. The growth potential is insane so it will bounce back at some point. I am surprised no one seemed to care about the settlement with Lion.

Just remember one number $52.3mln NPAT for 4 months of this FY as per ASM update, which is about 22c EPS annualised. And since that the final risk factor (lion case) has been put to bed, nothing to worry about long term prospects from here....just be patient and ride out the wave.

Nasi Goreng

13-12-2017, 02:38 PM

so this is the shaking of the tree I have heard about lol. I bought in 2 days ago and almost sold this morning when it was in free fall.

couta1

13-12-2017, 02:46 PM

so this is the shaking of the tree I have heard about lol. I bought in 2 days ago and almost sold this morning when it was in free fall. Welcome to the A2 Coaster, sit up, buckle up and hold on for dear life.

winner69

13-12-2017, 02:52 PM

Just remember one number $52.3mln NPAT for 4 months of this FY as per ASM update, which is about 22c EPS annualised. And since that the final risk factor (lion case) has been put to bed, nothing to worry about long term prospects from here....just be patient and ride out the wave.

That's exactly what I told my neighbour - he and his bowling mates were beginning to wonder if they had bought another dog of a stock. They are still ahead thank goodness

Though I now regret jokingly saying the only time to start worrying is if it they get caught up in a contaminated product scare like that French company is going through ....gave him the heebie jeebies

Ggcc

13-12-2017, 03:10 PM

Keep falling I hope. Want to top up early next year. 😁

thestg

13-12-2017, 03:25 PM

Keep falling I hope. Want to top up early next year. 

Hit my stop-loss yesterday so sold out & put 30% into HLG. So I'm also hoping for the fall to continue to re-enter at a later date.

777

13-12-2017, 03:41 PM

Keep falling I hope. Want to top up early next year. ��

Next update mid February. Can you afford leaving it until then.

Nasi Goreng

13-12-2017, 04:13 PM

Welcome to the A2 Coaster, sit up, buckle up and hold on for dear life.

wipes sweat from brow :cool:

Ggcc

13-12-2017, 04:46 PM

Next update mid February. Can you afford leaving it until then.

I already have ATM and want it to go down further so I can buy more. I don't have any funds right now, but next year I hope to buy more depending on the sp

minimoke

13-12-2017, 04:58 PM

I already have ATM and want it to go down further so I can buy more. I don't have any funds right now, but next year I hope to buy more depending on the sp
I hope for my sake your cunning plans fail as I am getting a bit of a hammering here. Expecting big increases between now and sometime next year!

Leftfield

13-12-2017, 05:10 PM

I hope for my sake your cunning plans fail as I am getting a bit of a hammering here. Expecting big increases between now and sometime next year!

Oh yee of little faith. Good things will come around the Feb update. In the short term I expect more volatility. Just be patient. Take a long term chill pill.

(BTW strange off market sale at the end of the day well below the trend.)

777

13-12-2017, 05:22 PM

Oh yee of little faith. Good things will come around the Feb update. In the short term I expect more volatility. Just be patient. Take a long term chill pill.

(BTW strange off market sale at the end of the day well below the trend.)

Went at the "weighted average" for the day.

see weed

13-12-2017, 05:32 PM

I can never win with ATM. I always buy and sell at the wrong time so I'm just going to hold my little share for a while. The growth potential is insane so it will bounce back at some point. I am surprised no one seemed to care about the settlement with Lion.
It appears we are in a little down trend:). Lower highs and lower lows generally for the last 7 days or so. If it makes you feel better, I bought 15,000 on Monday and Tuesday at av price 7.79, thinking that was the bottom, and sold them today for av price 7.73. Have decided to wait for the dust to settle and think there is more tree shaking and sp manipulation to come.Will keep a small amount and might get back in at a lower price later on. At this rate might get some in the early to mid 7s;).

Baa_Baa

13-12-2017, 06:42 PM

Stock is getting hammered, [snip] PS-Charts mean diddly squat with this stock, most indicators showing it's oversold, RSI hasn't been below 30 since the stock was around $4.

I dunno about that Couta, I find the chart works pretty well for ATM, the double top fail was called and followed through, SP continued down through the rising trend line signalling further weakness (don't buy the short term downtrend), then today it probed below the 50EMA touching the lower Bollinger and bounced back to close above the 50EMA, suggesting technical support kicked in. As for the RSI, I think it was below 30 way back 19/5/2016 for a few days when the SP was about $1.70 and not since. Even now it's above 40 so not oversold at all, but down trending still. MACD is looking pretty messed up though, but it's a lagging indicator.

ATM looks to be just blowing off a bit of toppy price action, maybe got ahead of itself and people skimming some profits off the table. Hard to say where to from here, just play it day by day. The chart helps a lot.

couta1

13-12-2017, 07:07 PM

I dunno about that Couta, I find the chart works pretty well for ATM, the double top fail was called and followed through, SP continued down through the rising trend line signalling further weakness (don't buy the short term downtrend), then today it probed below the 50EMA touching the lower Bollinger and bounced back to close above the 50EMA, suggesting technical support kicked in. As for the RSI, I think it was below 30 way back 19/5/2016 for a few days when the SP was about $1.70 and not since. Even now it's above 40 so not oversold at all, but down trending still. MACD is looking pretty messed up though, but it's a lagging indicator.

ATM looks to be just blowing off a bit of toppy price action, maybe got ahead of itself and people skimming some profits off the table. Hard to say where to from here, just play it day by day. The chart helps a lot. What I mean by the chart comment is that even when it looks oversold, the shorters and players can keep it heading southward. Perhaps your looking at a different chart with different parameters to me, I've got RSI at 23 using (14) W%R and Slow Stoch also in oversold territory, Bollie bands look like they are not too far away from starting to come together to me.

Baa_Baa

13-12-2017, 07:21 PM

What I mean by the chart comment is that even when it looks oversold, the shorters and players can keep it heading southward. Perhaps your looking at a different chart with different parameters to me, I've got RSI at 23 using (14) W%R and Slow Stoch also in oversold territory.

I've got RSI at 44.19 using 14 period but it's a quick check using Yahoo charts so maybe unreliable. I also checked the short positions on ASX (for yesterday) and was surprised that only 0.6% of the issued securities are short, mind you that's 432,591 shares so if I bothered (or could) find the trade data and do the maths it might be having a bearing on the SP decline, depends on how many of them were/are triggered.

I reckon it's mainly profit taking, and the charts are helpful timing exits and re-entry.

couta1

13-12-2017, 08:33 PM

I've got RSI at 44.19 using 14 period but it's a quick check using Yahoo charts so maybe unreliable. I also checked the short positions on ASX (for yesterday) and was surprised that only 0.6% of the issued securities are short, mind you that's 432,591 shares so if I bothered (or could) find the trade data and do the maths it might be having a bearing on the SP decline, depends on how many of them were/are triggered.

I reckon it's mainly profit taking, and the charts are helpful timing exits and re-entry. Over the last 20 trading days, excluding today, the average shorts as a % of volume was 17% with a range of 2.97% to a whopping 54.5 % on November 24th, clearly the shorters are wrecking havoc IMO.

Baa_Baa

13-12-2017, 08:37 PM

Over the last 20 trading days, excluding today, the average shorts as a % of volume was 17% with a range of 2.97% to a whopping 54.5 % on November 24th, clearly the shorters are wrecking havoc IMO.

Happy to accept that, can you share your data source?

JoeM

13-12-2017, 08:40 PM

Happy to accept that, can you share your data source?

Hey, i assume its from here.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Baa_Baa

13-12-2017, 08:53 PM

Hey, i assume its from here.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Interesting thanks, so it's exactly the same number as I quoted (for yesterday), at 0.06% of issued capital shorted and 432,591 shares. Hardly surprising, as I got the info from ASX. Obviously the short positions move around a lot each day, I'm not convinced they're a major factor in the decline per se, but happy to accept they are a factor.

Plenty of profit on the table right now and not surprising some will be taking that off the table. In any event, the charts are helpful to inform whether buying the down trend is a smart move or perhaps waiting for a low to kick in.

777

14-12-2017, 09:25 AM

winner69

14-12-2017, 09:38 AM

Ha ha .....Mr Beagle owns shares in a company to be run by a high flying Jetstar exec.

Without prejudice I’d say she is a good choice.

t.rexjr

14-12-2017, 09:40 AM

May be this has caused the drop.

Don't know, but last nights close was definitiely code for something...

Clints

14-12-2017, 09:44 AM

Does anyone know what the 1.7mill trades done at 9:20 with the code LA are?

sb9

14-12-2017, 09:46 AM

May be this has caused the drop.

Managing Director & CEO Succession

The Board of Directors of The a2 Milk Company Limited is very pleased to
announce the appointment of Ms Jayne Hrdlicka to the role of Managing
Director and CEO, to succeed Geoffrey Babidge who will retire from his role,
during calendar 2018. Geoff's retirement is part of a carefully planned
transition programme which the Board has put in place together with Geoff to
create an orderly and successful handover which is designed to ensure that
the current momentum of the business continues.

Hmmm...mixed feelings on this one, not the one related Geoff leaving but the new appointee to the role.

Thought Peter Nathan would've been natural fit into this role as he has so much insight into the business with his current role. May be they need him in the more important role of looking after Asia Pacific and China operations.

babymonster

14-12-2017, 10:04 AM

agree, might be the reason why sp has been steadily decline lately

couta1

14-12-2017, 10:12 AM

Hmmm...mixed feelings on this one, not the one related Geoff leaving but the new appointee to the role.

Thought Peter Nathan would've been natural fit into this role as he has so much insight into the business with his current role. May be they need him in the more important role of looking after Asia Pacific and China operations. A Jetstar boss for 5 years, I'm not feeling very inspired by the appointment.

suse

14-12-2017, 10:13 AM

This from August:
Given that CEO Geoff Babidge is reaching normal retirement age next year, the Board is working with him on matters of his ultimate succession, but there are no plans or timetables in place at this stage and, in any case, the Board does not see any eventual transition taking place in the near future.

interesting.

winner69

14-12-2017, 10:15 AM

A Jetstar boss for 5 years, I'm not feeling very inspired by the appointment.

Mr Beagle won't be impressed either (assuming he still has heaps of ATM shares)

And while we are sticking the boot in being a Woolworths exec isn't always the best pedigree either

suse

14-12-2017, 10:20 AM

On the bright side, they are ticking the diversity box :) And it's at least a year before she starts anyway.

King1212

14-12-2017, 10:25 AM

she leads Jetstar to one of the best low cost carrier...she is capable CEO.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11959435

bull....

14-12-2017, 10:26 AM

she leads Jetstar to one of the best low cost carrier...she is capable CEO.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11959435

might get some cheap deals to fly a2 formula to china

Beagle

14-12-2017, 10:35 AM

Mr Beagle won't be impressed either (assuming he still has heaps of ATM shares)

And while we are sticking the boot in being a Woolworths exec isn't always the best pedigree either

I think she's done a good job at Jetstar. I don't like Jetstar's product but we need to overlook that and consider the financial performance of Jetstar and the way she's helped that company grow. I have a modest stake in ATM and Synlait at present and no intention to reduce on this news.

Nasi Goreng

14-12-2017, 10:38 AM

This news will blow over in a few days... A2 will be much bigger company by 2019 when transition takes place. Don't know anything about the new CEO but you got to trust this board who's decision making process has been pretty spot on to date.

JeremyALD

14-12-2017, 10:43 AM

Agree with comments above, but it does seem like quite a big step up.

A2M is valued at 6 billion, so it's not that far behind Qantas as a whole group. I wouldn't be surprised if A2M has a bigger market cap than Qantas in a few years.

t.rexjr

14-12-2017, 10:54 AM

Good option I think. I'm sure the list of likelies had some stellar candidates. Good for public perception and believability I dare say.

hardt

14-12-2017, 10:56 AM

At first glance it seemed a little bit of an oddball appointment.

But her experience and performance is reassuring, I hope a new set of eyes do not break the old ways of A2...

Jayne talking about Jetstar, a lot of which is on the importance of Chinese partnerships etc. - https://centreforaviation.com/insights/video/in-conversation-with-jetstar-group-ceo-jayne-hrdlicka-471

She left a very good gig over at Qantas for this.

I don't think there would have been any shortage of candidates for this role.

winner69

14-12-2017, 10:58 AM

winner69

14-12-2017, 03:21 PM

This Jayne has just started a new job at Qantas ....they prob a bit peeved

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-high-flyer-in-shock-departure-for-a2-milk-20171213-p4yxou.html

ziggy415

14-12-2017, 04:15 PM

And not one comment about gender diversity

hardt

14-12-2017, 04:44 PM

And not one comment about gender diversity

Companies only talk about gender diversity if they are trying too hard... no one likes to be pandered to, best woma.. i mean person for the job right?

Plastering it on graphs every report and virtue signalling to everyone that you are doing your bit to bring down the patriarchy.

Most needed type of diversity is that of opinions and experience... not testosterone levels.

777

14-12-2017, 04:58 PM

I interpret her change in position in Qantas Group as a demotion. At best a sideways movement.

Nasi Goreng

14-12-2017, 05:06 PM

Companies only talk about gender diversity if they are trying too hard... no one likes to be pandered to, best woman for the job right?

Plastering it on graphs every report and virtue signalling to everyone that you are doing your bit to bring down the patriarchy. **** ****.

Thats one way of looking at it but there are many companies on the other hand who do nothing... its a big subject by itself. Well done to A2.

Having recently read SML annual report... they highlighted their leadership team with like 15??? guy GM's... I think the intention of this was to show the might of their capability but it did look a bit boring... not one capable female to take any of those roles.

Anyway, nice to see SP has recovered a bit today...

Baa_Baa

14-12-2017, 07:05 PM

Today was almost text book illustration of TA support, another probe below the 50EMA to the day low right on the lower Bollinger, then off she goes, and on decent volume. Even the RSI perked up to touch it's overhead resistance (down)trend line.

One or two days doesn't confirm a low is in, but it's looking positive from a low of 7.48 to close 7.94 today a cool 6% just like that.

:)

kizame

14-12-2017, 07:33 PM

Thats a breakout of the down wedge pattern for me,looks even more dramatic on the Aus chart where it finished up 24cents.

Baa_Baa

14-12-2017, 08:34 PM

Thats a breakout of the down wedge pattern for me,looks even more dramatic on the Aus chart where it finished up 24cents.

Yes, it's a technical breakout (up) of that wedge formation. Upwards from here you reckon? No significant TA resistance above here until the double top. Interesting times, a nice correction for the faithful to buy into, or a false breakout and more downside to come? Odds are on a recovery imo, until the recent highs. Especially if the market likes the CEO announcement.

stoploss

14-12-2017, 09:45 PM

Check ASX announcements might be some extra Xmas cheer for holders .

minimoke

14-12-2017, 09:53 PM

Check ASX announcements might be some extra Xmas cheer for holders .
Up 3.4% in Aus. Plus admission to ASX 100. Should be a good day tomorrow dragging me back to break even

Leftfield

15-12-2017, 07:10 AM

Bugger, was hoping ATM would stay in the 7.60's longer to enhance my choice in the 2018 stock picking comp.However, with inclusion in the ASX 100, new CEO a year away, and the Lion court case over, ATM SP now looks ready to climb a tab earlier than I expected.

kizame

15-12-2017, 07:41 AM

Yes, it's a technical breakout (up) of that wedge formation. Upwards from here you reckon? No significant TA resistance above here until the double top. Interesting times, a nice correction for the faithful to buy into, or a false breakout and more downside to come? Odds are on a recovery imo, until the recent highs. Especially if the market likes the CEO announcement.

I'm thinking slow and steady climb,and barring any market disturbance, a break through resistance, as Feb update approaches maybe a climb to 9.50 (purely conjecture)based on ForBar's target.

whome

15-12-2017, 08:30 AM

sb9

15-12-2017, 08:58 AM

Up 3.4% in Aus. Plus admission to ASX 100. Should be a good day tomorrow dragging me back to break even

Its all bit bizarre re ASX 100 rebalance in relation to A2m's admission. Last week announcement said there are no changes to ASX 100 and y'day A2M comes out and says they're admitted into ASX 100.

Whom to believe.....A2M or S&P, whatever it is someone has stuffed somewhere along, let's wait and see for clarification around this.

Balance

15-12-2017, 11:46 AM

Its all bit bizarre re ASX 100 rebalance in relation to A2m's admission. Last week announcement said there are no changes to ASX 100 and y'day A2M comes out and says they're admitted into ASX 100.

Whom to believe.....A2M or S&P, whatever it is someone has stuffed somewhere along, let's wait and see for clarification around this.

Too big a call that ASX and A2M have made a mistake.

Seems like there has indeed been a monumental stuffed up some way.

The short sellers have just got their arses burned again?

sb9

15-12-2017, 11:54 AM

Too big a call that ASX and A2M have made a mistake.

Seems like there has indeed been a monumental stuffed up some way.

The short sellers have just got their arses burned again?

Guess that what happens when you outsource these activities to S&P, but the way it stands looks like there are 101 stocks in ASX 100, not 100...who dropped out to include A2M?

dreamcatcher

15-12-2017, 03:05 PM

Has anyone else noticed all the stacked 10,000 buyers/sellers in the ATM market depth today

hardt

15-12-2017, 03:08 PM

hardt, I have been using your much appreciated analysis 25-11-17 #7205 as a base doc for fwd calcs and projections on ATM. For info, is there a rule of thumb for choosing fwd PE no.'s to use in calcs ie you used x30 & x40 when current PE is around 60?

I think you may be mixing up my charts forward PE for the trailing PE which is currently 60x

The Forward PE for 2018 is using the earnings per share of 2019 etc..

TM.NZX
2017
2018
2019
2020

EARNINGS PER SHARE
12.29
22.95
31.55
40.75

FORWARD PER AT $850
37.00
26.94
20.86
19.54

SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE
688
946
1223
1500

PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS
0.35
0.80
1.03
1.22

SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE
918
1262
1630
2000

PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS
0.46
1.01
1.37
1.63

FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH
90.01%
35.09%
29.17%
22.70%

Currently at $8 ATM is trading at 34.8x forward earnings.

I am not certain the growth rate will be maintained high enough to keep the PE this high for too many years.

I find it helpful to plot a wide range either side of the historical average, but there is no rule of thumb.

Beagle

15-12-2017, 03:27 PM

First four months sales were very strong and that's against a backdrop of them really struggling to secure enough stock. Synlait have just finished two major projects resulting in a doubling of their drying and canning capacity. I would say the outlook is very good indeed. EPS for FY18 could be as much as late 20's (cents per share).
They then get YOY capacity growth from having double the canning and drying capacity available all year in FY19, not half a year like this year. FY19 forecasts could be far too conservative or then again maybe not, who knows...but the company does appear to have serious momentum behind it...whereas some other companies in the NZX50 trading on similar multiples not so much.

see weed

15-12-2017, 04:49 PM

Over 2 mill on sell side tonight's close:confused:.

777

15-12-2017, 05:01 PM

Over 2 mill on sell side tonight's close:confused:.

I see one seller has over a million for sale. Why would they have not drippled them out over the course of the day for a higher average price?

see weed

15-12-2017, 05:05 PM

I see one seller has over a million for sale. Why would they have not drippled them out over the course of the day for a higher average price?
I jumped in and bought 10,000 on close. Poor bast... who got in at 8.20:eek2:

King1212

15-12-2017, 05:30 PM

I think it is rebalance...fundies are rebalancing..ASX is up now....hope they are putting in into SML:)

Balance

15-12-2017, 05:48 PM

I think it is rebalance...fundies are rebalancing..ASX is up now....hope they are putting in into SML:)

Indexing as alerted to yesterday by ATM.

The Australians have got the measure now of NZX ATM shareholders - sheep to the slaughter.

whome

15-12-2017, 05:52 PM

Hardt, thanks for responding to my query. You are right. I see my confusion with trailing PE and forward PE calcs. Exciting to run the numbers on a high growth company. Doing similar with GTK, but while interesting not quite the same explosive growth model as ATM, but they operate in very different markets. Both excellent companies imo.

Leftfield

16-12-2017, 02:31 PM

It is over a year till Jane Hrdlicka takes over as CEO of ATM in what seems to be a very well planned and executed succession plan. After viewing this 'You Tube' talk by Jane, I'm really impressed by the decision, and very hopeful for ATM's bright future.

Have a look and see what you think. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwtjpsACvM0)

Baa_Baa

18-12-2017, 07:57 PM

kizame

18-12-2017, 08:40 PM

There's a candle pattern that describes today, might have to look it up, fully enveloped off recent high and low. Probably 'uncertainty' which would hardly be surprising. That said, the recent breakdown call and the bounce call seemed to be on point. Remember there's a truckload of profit here, so things could be unstable if people decide to take it off the table. Eyes on.

Looking at the chart basically I see a new uptrend with higher lows,good volume now too after the consolidation which saw small price movements on low volume. Aus chart looks similar,most likely trade sideways for a wee while but...
We shall see.

peat

19-12-2017, 09:45 AM

There's a candle pattern that describes today, might have to look it up, fully enveloped off recent high and low. Probably 'uncertainty' which would hardly be surprising. That said, the recent breakdown call and the bounce call seemed to be on point. Remember there's a truckload of profit here, so things could be unstable if people decide to take it off the table. Eyes on.
9351

A doji, is created when the open and close for a stock are virtually the same. Doji tend to look like a cross or plus sign and have small or nonexistent bodies. From an auction theory perspective doji represent indecision on the side of both buyers and sellers. Everyone is equally matched, so the price goes nowhere; buyers and sellers are in a standoff. Some analysts interpret this as a sign of reversal. However, it may also be a time when buyers or sellers are gaining momentum for a continuation trend.

Leftfield

20-12-2017, 01:35 PM

Good move for BOTH ATM and SML IMO

SML announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312240)

dobby41

20-12-2017, 01:51 PM

Good move for BOTH ATM and SML IMO

SML announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312240)

What's it got to do with ATM? (Other than any cross-shareholding.)

King1212

20-12-2017, 08:26 PM

Sml announcement has nothing to do with ATM. In fact..the move de~risk SML dependent with Infant formula business.

Sideshow Bob

20-12-2017, 10:51 PM

Good move for BOTH ATM and SML IMO

SML announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312240)

Depending on the Fresha Valley arrangement and how long that has to go, it may provide a vehicle for South Island distribution. Available in Chch but possibly not regularly and haven't seen it anywhere else.

gbogo

20-12-2017, 11:15 PM

Leftfield

21-12-2017, 07:43 AM

What's it got to do with ATM? (Other than any cross-shareholding.)

You answer your own question, however.....

1.) ATM's investment in SML will benefit
2.) SML's new partnership with strong retailers could strengthen ATM's patchy NZ distribution and marketing and offers an alternative to Fresha Valley
3.) SML's product development and research emphasis could offer much needed product extensions to ATM

couta1

21-12-2017, 09:15 AM

Price action still not clear in my view - looks strong above $8.00 but then peels off sharply - and several times now. My sense would be the next big move will be down, given where it's come from. If so, should be a great buying opportunity - somewhere. Bollie bands slowly moving together, looks ready for a new years run up leading into the Feb result, as always volatile as you know what meantime.

Ggcc

21-12-2017, 10:24 AM

am I seeing those asking prices correct for the share on the ASX

winner69

21-12-2017, 10:29 AM

am I seeing those asking prices correct for the share on the ASX

Yes ...you are seeing correctly

Probably the pre-open range to be matched up at open .....or even last nights closing

Ggcc

21-12-2017, 10:34 AM

Yes ...you are seeing correctly
Is there rebalancing going on?? Cause that is over 3 million dollars at and average of $7,68 Australian. That is $8.44 NZ.

777

21-12-2017, 11:17 AM

Is there rebalancing going on?? Cause that is over 3 million dollars at and average of $7,68 Australian. That is $8.44 NZ.

Watch and learn. Happens all stocks, NZ and Aust in the pre open and close of play each day.

sb9

21-12-2017, 11:26 AM

Is there rebalancing going on?? Cause that is over 3 million dollars at and average of $7,68 Australian. That is $8.44 NZ.

End of the month option expiry, there'll be price match just before open and price will be traded in more realistic range.

minimoke

21-12-2017, 11:54 AM

Not long before open and price match at AUD$7.38

Edit an an opening of 7.22 and now 7.33

sb9

23-12-2017, 12:48 PM

Closed just a cent shy off 7.50 at 7.49 on ASX y’day, equates to NZ 8.23. Looks like it’s on the way up from here after recent sluggish run.

kizame

23-12-2017, 03:48 PM

Closed just a cent shy off 7.50 at 7.49 on ASX y’day, equates to NZ 8.23. Looks like it’s on the way up from here after recent sluggish run.

Disappointing to see sluggish trade on the nzx in the mornings now,everybody waits till aussie opens to see what direction it's going to take.
Now it appears we are the dogs tail,whichever way tho prospects will drive the price.

Beagle

23-12-2017, 08:55 PM

As long as the dog's tail is pointed upwards and wagging it doesn't matter :)

PLYNCH

29-12-2017, 03:25 PM

Cliff Cook used to own half of ATM.That's about $3B!

Leftfield

29-12-2017, 04:07 PM

couta1

29-12-2017, 04:21 PM

Article behind paywall in today's Australian saying in 2018 ATM and SML will benefit from;

a.) From this Monday, 1 Jan 2018 - No infant formula products are allowed to be imported into China unless they are registered and approved by Chinese Food and Drug Admin (ATM has registration - many haven't.)
b.) SML's planned $125 mill expansion will allow Long Life A2 Milk to be sold in China.
c.) Also under Australia's Free Trade agreement with China from 1 Dec 2017, Aust sourced fresh A2 Milk is able to be supplied into China.

Interesting times ahead. My biggest mistake of 2017 was selling my large holding before it doubled in value over a 3 month period, I was stubborn thinking I'm not buying back in as I considered it was only being driven by hype in the main. Needless to say I won't be repeating the same mistake in 2018. Not expecting the same acceleration of share price, but I'm putting a $12 target on it by this time next year.

Beagle

29-12-2017, 05:00 PM

I hold in my real portfolio and the ST 2018 competition. Long term this is a superb hold but I think genuine patience may be required for the early part of 2018 after a stellar 2017 SP performance. Holding long term and very confident this will at least double in the next 4-5 years. Also holding Synlait long term.

JeremyALD

01-01-2018, 07:20 PM

kizame

01-01-2018, 09:51 PM

Probably a dumb question but where is A2 Milk stocked in New Zealand? I actually want some but have been unable to find in any supermarket. There's Fresha Valley A2 but looks like that is a different company?

Fresha valley is A2,and its only stocked in countdown as far as I know,I have never seen it and would buy if I could get it. I don't shop at countdown so may go have a look.
It does seem unusual that the company originates from here but hasn't penetrated the market in any form.

JeremyALD

01-01-2018, 10:45 PM

Fresha valley is A2,and its only stocked in countdown as far as I know,I have never seen it and would buy if I could get it. I don't shop at countdown so may go have a look.
It does seem unusual that the company originates from here but hasn't penetrated the market in any form.

The branding and packaging is very poor on Fresha Valley milk. It dosent state anything about health benefits and has a small amount of A1 in it. A 2L is $4.90 so not really expensive. Are you sure this is the a2 milk company? I can't find anything on their website saying it's the a2 milk company or that their is a relationship. Personally I wouldn't buy the milk and it doesn't look or seem like a2.

edit: I just found out Fresha Milk is licensed by the a2 milk company to sell into New Zealand. So they pay a fee or commission to a2 but are not at all owned by a2 milk. i still find it bizarre that a 6 billion company that started in ANZ dosent even sell direct into its own market.

hardt

02-01-2018, 07:07 AM

see weed

02-01-2018, 12:36 PM

winner69

02-01-2018, 01:48 PM

Share price off to a good start on the ASX

Beagle

02-01-2018, 04:33 PM

We're such a backwater shutting down the markets for so long over the holidays.

777

02-01-2018, 04:44 PM

We're such a backwater shutting down the markets for so long over the holidays.

It is a public holiday here. Not so in Australia.

https://www.officeholidays.com/countries/australia/index.php

kizame

02-01-2018, 04:47 PM

And the US tomorrow or their Tuesday.

Ggcc

02-01-2018, 04:56 PM

It is a public holiday here. Not so in Australia.

https://www.officeholidays.com/countries/australia/index.php

We have way too many holidays in New Zealand in comparison to the rest of the world. Kiwis take off roughly 7 weeks off per year including special leave. There was even talk about giving kiwi workers more. Have to feel sorry for employers who take off roughly 2-3 weeks off per year I read somewhere.

BlackPeter

02-01-2018, 05:10 PM

We have way too many holidays in New Zealand in comparison to the rest of the world. Kiwis take off roughly 7 weeks off per year including special leave. There was even talk about giving kiwi workers more. Have to feel sorry for employers who take off roughly 2-3 weeks off per year I read somewhere.

Probably stuff for some other thread ... and yes, since I am no longer in employment I can see where you are coming from.

Interesting however to note that German companies who have to give their employees probably the longest leave periods in the world (typically 30 days annual leave plus roughly 14 or 15 public holidays per year plus in practical terms unlimited sick leave plus entitlements for time in lieu (for overtime) belong to the most profitable and efficient organisations in the world.

I don't think we need less leave - we need to learn to work smarter ...

Ggcc

02-01-2018, 07:13 PM

Probably stuff for some other thread ... and yes, since I am no longer in employment I can see where you are coming from.

Interesting however to note that German companies who have to give their employees probably the longest leave periods in the world (typically 30 days annual leave plus roughly 14 or 15 public holidays per year plus in practical terms unlimited sick leave plus entitlements for time in lieu (for overtime) belong to the most profitable and efficient organisations in the world.

I don't think we need less leave - we need to learn to work smarter ...
This is the last post for me on this as it does belong on a different thread. The Germans are a different culture to the rest of the world. If we had similar work ethics to Germans we would be in a much better position in general regarding work ethic. So you are right as in work smarter

winner69

02-01-2018, 08:36 PM

Holidays, productivity, work ethic etc etc always a good discussion.

What we loss track of sometimes is that NZ company performance is rather under whelming

Like figures from the much touted Deloittes Top 200 Awards showed in supplementary data that the Top 200 Companies in NZ (excluding Financials) achieved this in the 2017 reporting year (or as close as possible to that period -

Revenue growth of 4.3% over the previous year
EBITDA growth of 2.9% over previous year
Pre-tax profits were 6.4% less than previous year

So our Top Companies collectively couldn't even grow revenues as fast as the economy (GDP) and made less money than the year before.

Pretty sad really (esp as Deloittes tout this as success) and probably has a lot to do with NZ attitudes to work generally

Blair

02-01-2018, 09:55 PM

The branding and packaging is very poor on Fresha Valley milk. It dosent state anything about health benefits and has a small amount of A1 in it. A 2L is $4.90 so not really expensive. Are you sure this is the a2 milk company? I can't find anything on their website saying it's the a2 milk company or that their is a relationship. Personally I wouldn't buy the milk and it doesn't look or seem like a2.

edit: I just found out Fresha Milk is licensed by the a2 milk company to sell into New Zealand. So they pay a fee or commission to a2 but are not at all owned by a2 milk. i still find it bizarre that a 6 billion company that started in ANZ dosent even sell direct into its own market.

To me it seems more like they understood their priorities and had a clear strategy. I also expect that back when they entered into the license agreement, they were not particularly well known here nor were they a $6b company.

But whatever way you look at it, they will be in a stronger position when it comes time to renegotiate the licensing agreement. Whether that means entering the market themselves under a brand which is increasing in recognition or merely using that as a means to get more from the agreement, I guess time will tell.

A similar question was asked at the AGM about where to buy a2 milk. I find it more curious that Fresha Valley doesn't do more to market the benefits. I wonder what the reason is.

Sideshow Bob

02-01-2018, 10:43 PM

Leftfield

03-01-2018, 08:15 AM

Any idea when the agreement with Fresha expires?

I wouldnt think it would would be renegotiated. I would think with Synlait taking over the Foodstuffs fresh supply in 2019, it may be the chance to roll A2 local market distribution into this.

The Q&A at the end of the last results presentation seemed to imply that the agreement with Fesha has already expired and is currently rolling on month to month.

There have also been reports (posted previously on this forum) that Fresha is planning (at Resource Consent stage) a new processing plant in the central north island targeting A2 Milk production.

Perhaps Fresha will concentrate on Fresh A2 Milk (and maybe Long-life A2 milk), while SML will supply other powdered A2 products? I don't know where this will end, and while it is good to see ATM keeping its options open, like many posters, I would like to see better A2 marketing in NZ, (though I concede the NZ market is not overly important versus the extremely profitable markets of China and Asia.)

kizame

03-01-2018, 08:47 AM

To me it seems more like they understood their priorities and had a clear strategy. I also expect that back when they entered into the license agreement, they were not particularly well known here nor were they a $6b company.

But whatever way you look at it, they will be in a stronger position when it comes time to renegotiate the licensing agreement. Whether that means entering the market themselves under a brand which is increasing in recognition or merely using that as a means to get more from the agreement, I guess time will tell.

A similar question was asked at the AGM about where to buy a2 milk. I find it more curious that Fresha Valley doesn't do more to market the benefits. I wonder what the reason is.

I'm wondering whether fresher valley see the writing on the wall that any groundwork they do spreading A2 through the marketplace,will just eventually be taken off them,after all the footwork has been done?

NZSilver

08-01-2018, 11:47 AM

hardt

08-01-2018, 12:08 PM

Where will this end up in the next 3 months. Results in mid Feb for hy18, I can see good buying demand up until this date. Also now in the ASX100. My predictions are around NZ $9.30 - $9.50 before results with $10+ if they exceed expectations.

Expecting this to be supressed under $9 till results... which are expected to be excellent ( no margin for error )

the less it runs up to the results the better.

kizame

08-01-2018, 07:53 PM

Is gathering momentum,especially with the close in Aus,now it does depend a bit whether the US markets correct as it was a big run up before the weekend,but otherwise looking very promising.
It will have to be a better than expected result I think,never the less I will be gone before then.

Leftfield

08-01-2018, 09:06 PM

Is gathering momentum.....never the less I will be gone before then.

Agree, looking good lately, but where and why you going Kiz?

The other thing to look forward to with the Feb update (other than an increased SP) is the promised decision on a Dividend..... any bets on that folks?

kizame

09-01-2018, 10:30 AM

Agree, looking good lately, but where and why you going Kiz?

The other thing to look forward to with the Feb update (other than an increased SP) is the promised decision on a Dividend..... any bets on that folks?

Coz I'm guessing after the result in late feb it will flatten out and do a big consolidation,so in anticipation of that. A divi might change my mind,but promises promises,they may just think that cash pile is too good,and use to expand in the states.

couta1

10-01-2018, 02:25 PM

This is one of the only stocks that can wipe out nearly all your paper profits in a single day on no news.

kizame

10-01-2018, 02:28 PM

This is one of the only stocks that can wipe out nearly all your paper profits in a single day on no news.

I think there is just too much time between now and late feb when they report,so a bit of profit taking on the slow increase in price as of late. I think it will pretty much a sideways market for a while.

BlackPeter

10-01-2018, 05:01 PM

This is one of the only stocks that can wipe out nearly all your paper profits in a single day on no news.

Just imagine you would have bought in at 50 cents per share ;) Lots of buffer before all profits are gone!

... and just to put today's drop into perspective - the share price is still sitting above the MA50 ...

Discl: No, I didn't buy in either in at 50 cents ... but still - the shares I currently hold are (according to "percy's methodology" free - i.e. I can watch the games quite relaxed ....

Beagle

10-01-2018, 06:42 PM

Bought a few more on the drop today.

kizame

10-01-2018, 08:07 PM

Bought a few more on the drop today.

When you buy the share price should have turned back around and went the other way.
More issues with supply of formula to supermarkets,and people complaining about the daigou taking too much stock off the shelves.
I didn't realise a mum with two young boys go through 10 tins a month.

steveb

10-01-2018, 08:10 PM

Bought a few more on the drop today.
Hound always worth picking up some more but we could well see the SP drop a bit more tomorrow,we seem to see these cycles around the 8th to the 11th of the month when the price drops away.The november cycle saw the SP go as low as $6.90 on the day before recovering back to $7.49.The Dec cycle saw the SP down to $7.75 not sure how low it went on the day.But if the stock is being shorted its well worth keeping an eye on these trends.

JeremyALD

11-01-2018, 12:45 PM

Goodness me. Could be topping up at this rate.

Clints

11-01-2018, 02:11 PM

Could be a few stop losses being triggered

hardt

11-01-2018, 02:25 PM

Shake the trailing stops loose.

Topped up at 780.

couta1

11-01-2018, 04:34 PM

Shake the trailing stops loose.

Topped up at 780. Ditto, sold some other stuff to do so.

JeremyALD

11-01-2018, 04:41 PM

What are your NPAT expectations for the full year. I've calculated 170m, does that seem reasonable?

carrom74

11-01-2018, 05:40 PM

Ditto, sold some other stuff to do so.

Always regretted selling at an abysmal 2.80 and did not have the courage to enter again... but I did today. Sold some other stagnant ones to buy this Gem... Hope I am not wrong this time

Ninefingers

11-01-2018, 05:50 PM

Having held for the ride from 60cents, I think I'll look at getting some more tomorrow. Still going lower on the ASX.

RGR367

11-01-2018, 05:51 PM

Always regretted selling at an abysmal 2.80 and did not have the courage to enter again... but I did today. Sold some other stagnant ones to buy this Gem... Hope I am not wrong this time

Even if it goes down even farther tomorrow, it wil still be a gem. Hope it does though to give us a buying chance :cool:

Beagle

11-01-2018, 05:53 PM

What are your NPAT expectations for the full year. I've calculated 170m, does that seem reasonable?

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/ Average broker forecast is $173m mate. ATM have a very good track record of upgrades and I expect with Synlait doubling their drying and canning capacity late last year ATM will finally be in a position to meet the sales demand this half. 18 - 24 months later ATM will need Synlait to step up to the plate again with more production capability expansion in my opinion. I'm expecting ATM's forecast to be upgraded, perhaps several times as the year progresses.

hardt

11-01-2018, 06:03 PM

What are your NPAT expectations for the full year. I've calculated 170m, does that seem reasonable?

Consensus seems to be around 155-180, mostly unchanged since the November update.

The biggest driver of stock price performance has unequivocally been EPS revisions ( which reflects obvious fundamental strengths )

I got a lower $162m on my end, deep down I know it will be closer to 180m ( engineering a bit of outperformance )... maybe brokers have been doing the same for the last 18 months now?

couta1

11-01-2018, 06:16 PM

Simply Wall Street reckon the PE is too high and a reduction may be in order for some holders, topping up must be the right thing to do in that case.

JeremyALD

11-01-2018, 06:19 PM

Thanks all. A foreward PE of 35 or so is pretty good considering their growth (both projected and potential)

couta1

11-01-2018, 06:27 PM

Thanks all. A foreward PE of 35 or so is pretty good considering their growth (both projected and potential) They are measuring it against an average industry PE of 21, their about right NZ$ value is $6.83, yeah right.

hardt

11-01-2018, 06:38 PM

They are measuring it against an average industry PE of 21, their about right NZ$ value is $6.83, yeah right.

They have A2 milk and Bega cheese going head to head though haha...

5% growth vs 35%+ and noticing that one has a relatively higher valuation...

Simplywallst value EVO at $2.10 - Better get buying guys

couta1

12-01-2018, 07:33 PM

Big increase in the short selling volume as a % of total volume over the last few days, 44% yesterday. A desperate attempt by the shorters and other game players to drag the price down while they can, they know their time is limited due to the upcoming results. Hopefully many of them get caught with their pants down and get a severe rear end hiding as many did last year, they never learn.

Beagle

12-01-2018, 07:39 PM

Tough week...took a selfie to prove it https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=cbkFyrBs&id=FCD327F3CD8CC16810A7719CEC064927015549B0&thid=OIP.cbkFyrBsYpboKTxuDn8_mQEsC8&q=Beagle+licking+wounds&simid=608018632118177049&selectedIndex=4&qpvt=Beagle+licking+wounds

longy

15-01-2018, 08:12 AM

JeremyALD

15-01-2018, 08:35 AM

Yeah I'm happy to hold it out this time. I missed out majorly last time and I see no reason for a less than excellent result given the simply massive momentum

Nasi Goreng

16-01-2018, 12:48 PM

Nice open on the ASX, bit of a short squeeze going on me thinks

couta1

16-01-2018, 01:10 PM

Nice open on the ASX, bit of a short squeeze going on me thinks Shorters getting rear ends severely kicked atm, BAL up $2.45 currently, was up $3 earlier on their recent profit upgrade, flow on effect.

Leftfield

16-01-2018, 05:03 PM

Shorters getting rear ends severely kicked atm, BAL up $2.45 currently, was up $3 earlier on their recent profit upgrade, flow on effect.

The ATM shorters must be real masochists, surely there are easier ways to make a buck! ( My recommendation - Forget about timing the market, with ATM it is all about time in the market.)

couta1

16-01-2018, 05:11 PM

The ATM shorters must be real masochists, surely there are easier ways to make a buck! ( My recommendation - Forget about timing the market, with ATM it is all about time in the market.) Yep, must have been a blood bath last year when the price doubled over that 3 month period, would be interesting to know what % of shorters do well with this stock, I reckon it would be a low one, garden variety traders on the other hand would do pretty well. PS-Yesterday 55% of total volume was shorters.

Beagle

16-01-2018, 05:41 PM

JeremyALD

16-01-2018, 08:14 PM

Does anyone here own BAL? Any thoughts on the difference in value of the two?

couta1

16-01-2018, 10:39 PM

News Snippet on the ASX "The A2 milk company expands US business to the North East"

JoeGrogan

16-01-2018, 10:43 PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/a2-milk-company-united-states/new-zealands-a2-milk-expands-u-s-business-to-the-north-east-idUSL3N1PB38G

Goodbye shorters

Leftfield

17-01-2018, 07:13 AM

https://www.reuters.com/article/a2-milk-company-united-states/new-zealands-a2-milk-expands-u-s-business-to-the-north-east-idUSL3N1PB38G
Goodbye shorters

Great news... thanks for sharing/posting. Almost feel sorry for those Aussie shorters! :p

winner69

17-01-2018, 08:41 AM

The path to global domination continues

North East USA .....60 million consumers

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/313102

Nice

No worries here

Beagle

17-01-2018, 08:48 AM

GROWTH :t_up: :t_up:

silu

17-01-2018, 08:58 AM

Besides California the North East US is the perfect market for A2 Milk. Wondering how big their marketing budget is for this market alone?

hardt

17-01-2018, 09:00 AM

Does anyone here own BAL? Any thoughts on the difference in value of the two?

Well I used to own BAL up until August when I sold around $8 - now it is $13.60

I don't fully understand why a revised EBITDA +3% above previous forecast causes the market to add 25% to its value.

Revenues revised up +15% so one can clearly they are dumping stock with that margin.

BAL products are in a more competitive space.

BAL has a higher valuation than A2M which also does not make sense to me.

silu

17-01-2018, 09:00 AM

Loving this snippet from an article in The Australian "“I think one of the major reasons could very well be that 25 per cent of the US population have self-diagnosed themselves as lactose intolerant,’’ Mr Waltrip said."

Beagle

17-01-2018, 09:26 AM

Now that Synlait's new plants (canning and drying) are up and running and have doubled capacity, seeing as ATM has almost constantly struggled to get enough supply I think some people are going to be like stunned mullets later this year when they see the sales total for the next six months.

winner69

17-01-2018, 11:37 AM

Share price will be on fire when ASX opens .....they love these type of stocks

sb9

17-01-2018, 11:45 AM

Share price will be on fire when ASX opens .....they love these type of stocks

Its no wonder that none of directors nor the management have sold any of their shares in the recent months as the growth potential ahead is huge from today’s announcement.

winner69

17-01-2018, 11:48 AM

Its no wonder that none of directors nor the management have sold any of their shares in the recent months as the growth potential ahead is huge from today’s announcement.

No no sb9 .......growth potential is bloody huge ....humongous

winner69

17-01-2018, 11:52 AM

Besides California the North East US is the perfect market for A2 Milk. Wondering how big their marketing budget is for this market alone?

Marketing budget big I hope .....even if it’s at the expenses of divies

Need to go for it eh

winner69

17-01-2018, 11:57 AM

Could we see $9 today ...not too far away

And then $10 by end of Feb

JoeGrogan

17-01-2018, 12:03 PM

Share price will be on fire when ASX opens .....they love these type of stocks

There's the aussie buyers lol

sb9

17-01-2018, 12:04 PM

Marketing budget big I hope .....even if it’s at the expenses of divies

Need to go for it eh

Well at the ASM they did flag higher marketing expenditure in relation to US operations and its showing positive results already. Who wants a divvy when the growth ahead is huge....or massively huge!!!

minimoke

17-01-2018, 12:04 PM

Could we see $9 today ...not too far away

And then $10 by end of Feb
I like your optimism - but may be a bit too much to hope for.

Clints

17-01-2018, 12:23 PM

The gun went off and we were 1st out of the gates but then we tripped and fell.

bohemian

17-01-2018, 02:20 PM

I'm in Sydney reading the article on A2M in the Australian this morning. It reports on the expansion into the North West of US saying it will be in 3800 stores. Significant is the tie up with Whole Foods Market which is owned by Amazon. It mentions that 25% of Americans are self diagnosed with lactose intolerance so plenty of expansion potential. ATM and AMZN are my numbers 2 and 1 holdings so maybe that's where the synergy has come from. While I'm here as I see it A2 is the most common milk sold at supermarkets here, New World at home not heard of it.

Leftfield

17-01-2018, 05:20 PM

Does anyone here own BAL? Any thoughts on the difference in value of the two?

Digressing slightly from today's exciting news re USA expansion - I find it hard to understand the Australian market's fascination with comparing A2m to BAL. It's about as logical as 52% of ASX trades shorting A2M?? Why bother?

This chart says it all IMHO. A2m the top Blue line, BAL the bottom red line.

9408

couta1

17-01-2018, 06:50 PM

Digressing slightly from today's exciting news re USA expansion - I find it hard to understand the Australian market's fascination with comparing A2m to BAL. It's about as logical as 52% of ASX trades shorting A2M?? Why bother?

This chart says it all IMHO. A2m the top Blue line, BAL the bottom red line.

9408 BAL has had a spectacular recovery from a year ago, most wouldn't have dreamed it could have recovered to reach such lofty heights again in such a time frame($3.76 to $14.48, now that's impressive) people love underdogs, so I can see the fascination with it.PS-A2 shorters dropped to 20% yesterday.

Beagle

17-01-2018, 07:18 PM

Shorters got another beating today...how sad never mind :D

zgnz

18-01-2018, 10:09 AM

Segment on cnbc https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/01/17/specialty-a2-milk-hitting-us-shelves.html?play=1

silu

18-01-2018, 10:15 AM

Segment on cnbc https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/01/17/specialty-a2-milk-hitting-us-shelves.html?play=1

It always irks me when they say it comes out of Australia especially when I know a foundation member.

Beagle

18-01-2018, 10:27 AM

Segment on cnbc https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/01/17/specialty-a2-milk-hitting-us-shelves.html?play=1

Great to see them on CNBC, that's bound to create awareness.

Ggcc

18-01-2018, 10:30 AM

I see fonterra are now selling fresh milk in China through Alibaba..... Maybe something else for A2 to consider

RGR367

18-01-2018, 10:34 AM

It always irks me when they say it comes out of Australia especially when I know a foundation member.

Was it mentioned coming out of Australia from that video? Probably misheard it. Anyway, it's the US of A, where a blatant lie is accepted as truth especially coming from that s...hole person of the WH.

winner69

18-01-2018, 12:58 PM

Was it mentioned coming out of Australia from that video? Probably misheard it. Anyway, it's the US of A, where a blatant lie is accepted as truth especially coming from that s...hole person of the WH.

A2 doing good stuff getting the word out to the investing world

Even that article some of you mentioned yesterday in The Australian was penned by a journo who traveled to the USA at A2’s expense (disclosed)

Good stuff ..nothing like building up hype ....or as some might say a bit of marketing as well.

Leftfield

19-01-2018, 03:57 PM

Nice end to the week for the ATM SP..... the recent upsurge possibly following this weeks TV interview (https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5714097316001) the retiring CEO saying the USA market success is a 'step change' for ATM and that "revenue in the US should more than double in the short term."

JoeM

19-01-2018, 07:04 PM

Big close up on the ASX by the looks

NZSilver

22-01-2018, 10:34 AM

Will we see $9+ today - I suspect so

hardt

22-01-2018, 10:43 AM

Will we see $9+ today - I suspect so

People have been flame grilled matching prior days ASX closing price before.

I don't want to see a breakout just yet as I want to top up some more too.

Beagle

22-01-2018, 10:47 AM

"flame grilled" :lol: love it...not chasing this at this price but also looking for a top up on any future weakness, if any.

NZSilver

22-01-2018, 11:27 AM

https://translate.google.co.nz/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://it.sohu.com/20180119/n528662788.shtml&prev=search

minimoke

22-01-2018, 12:51 PM

Will we see $9+ today - I suspect so
This morning, pre-open I was "bwahahaha". But now you might just be right. Happy days. ATM in positive territory for me.

Baa_Baa

22-01-2018, 09:05 PM

That's a massive TA breakout today, of the shallow descending overhead (now support) trend line. Impressive. Interesting is the daily push above the double top high and close back right on it, bang on it!

Tomorrow, we see whether this has legs and checks out some blue sky or submits to the double top and wimps out somewhere below.

Interesting times. TA aside, this looks well past its FA upside, sentiment seems to own the room.

JeremyALD

22-01-2018, 10:49 PM

winner69

23-01-2018, 07:08 AM

Could we see $9 today ...not too far away

And then $10 by end of Feb

Last Thursday

Only a few days late that $9. Must not be so impatient

But be good if $10 by mid-Feb ....only 13% away

No worries

NZSilver

23-01-2018, 08:19 AM

yes it will be interesting to see how today plays out - momentum is present but volume isn't huge. It does sound like there is a steady flow of money into this sector at the moment. It would be good to see another higher close. News flow re JD deal even though not mainstream and US market expansion.

winner69

23-01-2018, 08:41 AM

One good thing about A2 is that the share price is driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Beagle

23-01-2018, 09:49 AM

The Chinese market is growing rapidly and within five years, forecast demand for infant and baby dairy products will be more than the total for other global markets, so the potential remains."

When you're hot you're hot and when you're not you're NOT...almost feel sorry for Fonterra http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/90a9173d/fonterra-criticises-beingmate-after-extremely-disappointing-earnings-downgrade.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fonterra%20criticises%20Beingmate%20a fter%20extremely%20disappointing%20earnings%20down grade&utm_content=Fonterra%20criticises%20Beingmate%20af ter%20extremely%20disappointing%20earnings%20downg rade+CID_96d2688f0e7fd13a679e41bf459157cd&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle90a9173dfonter ra-criticises-beingmate-after-extremely-disappointing-earnings-downgradehtml
Posted this because it includes the above quoted interesting remark about China demand.

NZSilver

23-01-2018, 06:22 PM

very strong close on ASX

Leftfield

23-01-2018, 07:49 PM

very strong close on ASX

Apparently Goldman Sachs have updated their stance on A2M to BUY with a target price of $A 8.85 ($NZ 9.64)

hardt

23-01-2018, 08:20 PM

Apparently Goldman Sachs have updated their stance on A2M to BUY with a target price of $A 8.85 ($NZ 9.64)

Just raised the PT right? - they have always been a buy with A2 as far as i can remember.

We can round it up to $10 and call it in line with most of us on here.

NZSilver

24-01-2018, 06:02 AM

Very good news re price upgrade - now it might be a few days late but 9+ should occur today if the break upwards continues. If we get some more volume it would really mean we have some good momentum. I topped up a few when I saw positives occurring in Monday. Still time to do so. Let's see what today brings

winner69

24-01-2018, 11:56 AM

BINGO $9

Or am jumping the gun

minimoke

24-01-2018, 12:08 PM

BINGO $9

Or am jumping the gun
Nope. Locked and loaded. (even one in there at $9.01)

gbogo

24-01-2018, 12:17 PM

Let's hope it gets properly through $9.00 else we'll have a potentially nasty double-top forming...

peat

24-01-2018, 12:30 PM

Let's hope it gets properly through $9.00 else we'll have a potentially nasty double-top forming...

triple isnt it ?
(which is even worse)

couta1

24-01-2018, 12:36 PM

triple isnt it ?
(which is even worse) Expecting and hoping for a pullback sometime between now and Feb result, a month is a long time with this stock.

steveb

24-01-2018, 12:53 PM

Expecting and hoping for a pullback sometime between now and Feb result, a month is a long time with this stock.
couta if the trends continue this stock will drop back again around the 8th of next month,usually between the 8th to the 11th.I am thinking I might sell my holding and have a little wait and see!

Oliver Mander

24-01-2018, 01:38 PM

Hmmm....at $10.80 ATM becomes NZ's largest listed company (currently AIA at $7.95 billion). That will be interesting...

NZSilver

24-01-2018, 01:51 PM

very good to see it go right through 9 - pushing higher. 3 days of very good runs on the board! new breakout looking very promising.

Nasi Goreng

24-01-2018, 02:01 PM

Hmmm....at $10.80 ATM becomes NZ's largest listed company (currently AIA at $7.95 billion). That will be interesting...

You gotta wonder what the heck Fonterra are thinking about all this growth in ATM, SML and other independents. Could A2 one day be bigger than Fonterra?

minimoke

24-01-2018, 02:15 PM

You gotta wonder what the heck Fonterra are thinking about all this growth in ATM, SML and other independents. Could A2 one day be bigger than Fonterra?
Heres a pretty picture

sb9

24-01-2018, 02:15 PM

You gotta wonder what the heck Fonterra are thinking about all this growth in ATM, SML and other independents. Could A2 one day be bigger than Fonterra?

Its just matter of when not if....my pick is by end this FY.

Oliver Mander

24-01-2018, 02:20 PM

Its just matter of when not if....my pick is by end this FY.

Agree completely. That's why its interesting.
Not forgetting the role of SML in this also...my own opinion is that the SML + ATM combo is just fundamentally more efficient in their use of plant assets, have innovated into a new product area (A2) and are reaping a solid reward for it.

NZSilver

24-01-2018, 02:22 PM

go you good thing - get through $9.15!

777

24-01-2018, 02:22 PM

Fonterra is a bit like Cavalier. The world has moved on and they have yet to realise the fact. Remember that they thought A2 protein was just a passing fad.

Nasi Goreng

24-01-2018, 02:34 PM

The FSF shareholders fund is valued at $10B. Does that essentially mean that is the total size of the company? - or is there more to it than that with a co-op.

NZSilver

24-01-2018, 02:41 PM

Interestingly fonterra discovered a2 vs a1. I asked Theo a few months back about A2 and he said A2 approached fonterra to manufacture their a2 product and he was really keen but others in fonterra were still very against a2. Too me that is missed opportunity for fonterra and the farmers who own the majority of the coop. He also said he felt a2 product lifecycle may be near its end (which I doubt). Seems there is a very anti a2 sentiment in fonterra - as a way to get infant formula into China a2 would have been a lot better that begimate.

winner69

24-01-2018, 02:43 PM

go you good thing - get through $9.15!

920 beckons .... then 950

NZSilver

24-01-2018, 02:43 PM

On another note price come back - will be interesting to see closing price. Think I might sell a few As it's basically at my price target. Still a while to results

minimoke

24-01-2018, 02:47 PM

He also said he felt a2 product lifecycle may be near its end (which I doubt)..And that's why I'll never be the Big Boss in a company - I reckon A2 is at the beginning of its life cycle

Beagle

24-01-2018, 05:29 PM

couta1

24-01-2018, 05:48 PM

For anyone who missed this infamous quote on the PPH thread this morning that will probably come back to bite me but I'll re-quote it nonetheless. Everyone NEEDS protein, nobody NEEDS an app tp pay their donations at Church. I like investing in needs based business's making real earnings. Indeed, my Church donations are paid via AP and I wouldn't choose any other method.

BlackPeter

24-01-2018, 05:49 PM

For anyone who missed this infamous quote on the PPH thread this morning that will probably come back to bite me but I'll re-quote it nonetheless. Everyone NEEDS protein, nobody NEEDS an app tp pay their donations at Church. I like investing in needs based business's making real earnings.

I am with you on that. In addition - ATM does have real earnings .... the other candidate has just a huge market cap and writing losses ;);

peat

24-01-2018, 05:52 PM

its a nice phrase Rog, but nobody needs milk protein or even lactose intolerant protein made by A2. There are always substitutes.

Tho I tend to think digital products eg IT IP , are more easily replicated than physical ones. Hence the 1000 versions of Bitcoin

winner69

24-01-2018, 06:27 PM

Indeed, my Church donations are paid via AP and I wouldn't choose any other method.

Couldn’t find that app AP in either the Google or Apple store

couta1

24-01-2018, 06:32 PM

Couldn’t find that app AP in either the Google or Apple store Nah mate, it's the prehistoric abbreviation for Automatic Payment, you may remember those good old days. Some of us are still dinosaurs.

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 06:52 PM

JeremyALD

24-01-2018, 07:13 PM

I've been thinking and a PE of 50 is not unreasonable for this stock looking at growth and US comparisons. Heck look at the multiples of Netflix Amazon and Facebook

couta1

24-01-2018, 08:11 PM

Three days closing above the upper Bollinger, on a technical breakout, and standard indicators have some wiggle room to the upside before over bought. This could have legs, but history shows it doesn't hang around for long above that Bolly line. What would history know though eh? Cue Winner for a new price target.
;) I've missed out big time over the last year or so by not just holding this stock long term, finally resolved last week to just hold my latest holding for the next 5 years without touching it.(Some of us are slow to learn)

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 08:12 PM

I've been thinking and a PE of 50 is not unreasonable for this stock looking at growth and US comparisons. Heck look at the multiples of Netflix Amazon and Facebook

That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

Jmho fwiw
BAA

RupertBear

24-01-2018, 08:50 PM

hardt

24-01-2018, 08:51 PM

That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

Jmho fwiw
BAA

The growth that this valuation reflects is there.

Every tin of formula they make is sold almost immediately, speak to a daigou and they will let you know how insane the demand really is.
What daigous buy, everybody buys...

50x earnings at a medium term target of 40+% growth is sensible.

And currently trading at a Forward PE of 37-39x...

I would like to know what a sensible PE on ATM would be to you and what assumptions you have made to get there?

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 08:52 PM

I've missed out big time over the last year or so by not just holding this stock long term, finally resolved last week to just hold my latest holding for the next 5 years without touching it.(Some of us are slow to learn)

We're not on the same page as investors or traders Couta, we have quite different approaches, though not saying yours is not good for you, it's just not good for me.

I would not be able to stomach holding an X(n)OS position (based on an arbitrary x+ years invested in the company) that was reverting to a sensible PE, or well below in a market correction or serious rout. I value capital preservation way above holding "for the long term". It's been quite a while since the market suffered a small rout, let alone a devastating rout, but they happen and will happen again.

All's good when it going up, for sure. It's the downside and typically long time to recovery that honed my active management focus.

I'll buy a fundamentally sound company, or something with solid growth prospects, or even a pure spec or two, but I won't just hold in spite of everything, which is why TA has served me very well.

Some call it momentum trading. Run with the upside, enjoy the dividends if there are any, cut capital losses on the downside. That type of 'trading strategy' has no reference to timeframes, it just happens when the time is right.

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 08:59 PM

The growth that this valuation reflects is there.

Every tin of formula they make is sold almost immediately, speak to a daigou and they will let you know how insane the demand really is.
What daigous buy, everybody buys...

50x earnings at a medium term target of 40+% growth is sensible.

Sure, ride the wave until it breaks, then cut out, no one likes surfing the white water. Simple. It can be years before hyped-up stocks recover to their potential (when it breaks, which it will, I just don't know when precisely), but no reason why not to ride the momentum up, and cut losses on the downside. In, out, be quick, be nimble. Just don't buy the story and hold. Mugs game imho.

JeremyALD

24-01-2018, 09:00 PM

That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

Jmho fwiw
BAA

I agree that tech stocks are not the best comparison, however I, analysts and many others believe there is still value at the current share price - although I would not buy at this level until the next announcement.

ATM is well positioned, has huge growth potential in China, UK and USA, sound momentum, a track record of delivering, no debt and plenty of cash. Yes its not the bargain it once was but you'd be hard to find a stock on the ASX or NZX with stronger growth prospects.

What i was getting at with the example of US stocks is the market at this point in time is paying large premiums for growth companies and not many are growing as fast as ATM (now this may slow, but at the moment it looks like it's full steam ahead).

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 09:08 PM

And currently trading at a Forward PE of 37-39x...

I would like to know what a sensible PE on ATM would be to you and what assumptions you have made to get there?

You're not hearing me, I'm not discussing FA, albeit in english - 37-39 YEARS of earnings to justify the share price (capital valuation of the company) seems reasonable to you. I don't care.

I'm riding upside momentum, enjoying dividends when there are some (not here) and cutting capital losses without any recourse to having to justify holding a stock that is well beyond fundamental reasons for holding, but at the same time punters love it and pushing up the share price.

So all good. I just won't be there when all the FA's are wondering why the market can't understand 30-40 time earnings isn't a good deal anymore.

Kay

24-01-2018, 09:17 PM

That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

Jmho fwiw
BAA

I would argue that netflix and amazon are priced on hype and sentiment with god knows how many years of perfection priced in already too....and if I'm generalising I would say the same can be said for all major national indices.

Cant argue with your advice. I think its a bit too far into the cycle for long term investments. Its a long way down. Plenty of money to be made chasing the quick buck... And much more fun!

Baa_Baa

24-01-2018, 09:23 PM

I would argue that netflix and amazon are priced on hype and sentiment with god knows how many years of perfection priced in already too....and if I'm generalising I would say the same can be said for all major national indices.

Cant argue with your advice. I think its a bit too far into the cycle for long term investments. Its a long way down. Plenty of money to be made chasing the quick buck... And much more fun!

Yes, but as companies they're not comparable in any respects except maybe the hype.

Active management of Stop loss orders, or 'limit sells' (in another language) are key to exits without having to worry about most of, if not all of, the chatter here whether it's valued correctly by the market, or not.

Just protect your capital position, imho.

BAA

couta1

24-01-2018, 09:46 PM

The good thing about this stock is it has both a 5 star trader and investor rating, choose your poison or mix it up ,if you feel so inclined.

Sideshow Bob

24-01-2018, 10:01 PM

Just 27 days & 10 hours (approx) to wait for the next update.....

Perhaps it is the end of its lifecycle. That's a great Tui........

Beagle

24-01-2018, 10:47 PM

My 2 cents is that to understand this company in terms of its valuation one needs to look at FY19 forecast figures. Synlait have only just doubled canning and drying capacity so there is a chance in the short term there might be enough supply to meet rampant demand before Synlait have to ramp up production again in due course.
Here's some comparative PE's from other growth companies on the NZX, all growing considerably slower than ATM, all PE's off 4 Traders average of analysts FY19 forecasts
ATM 28
POT 36
AIA 29
FPH 35

I think those numbers speak for themselves but its well worth noting ATM have a very good history or upgrading their forecasts.

It won 't surprise me in the years ahead if demand growth continues to make it near impossible to keep a reliable supply. I can see the possibility of a 1:1 scrip based takeover of Synlait coming at some stage so ATM can control the supply chain in the manner it needs too.

hardt

25-01-2018, 09:08 AM

You're not hearing me, I'm not discussing FA, albeit in english - 37-39 YEARS of earnings to justify the share price (capital valuation of the company) seems reasonable to you. I don't care.

I'm riding upside momentum, enjoying dividends when there are some (not here) and cutting capital losses without any recourse to having to justify holding a stock that is well beyond fundamental reasons for holding, but at the same time punters love it and pushing up the share price.

So all good. I just won't be there when all the FA's are wondering why the market can't understand 30-40 time earnings isn't a good deal anymore.

I hear you.

Valuations have an across the board relevance to the current economic climate and sentiment surrounding certain industries...

When the multiples retract there will be a fundamental reason for it and the industry/market would likely be moving the same way using FA... TA's are never the first movers.

Whittling it down to being either an unintuitive FA or a brilliantly minded trader is a little bit ~