ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[steveb]

methinks there might have been a leak in the next update report

[Ggcc]

Just love riding this wave, but it can’t keep going up forever......... or can it

[see weed]

methinks there might have been a leak in the next update report
You could be right. It has gone up over $1.60 in last 9 buss. days.

[see weed]

Just love riding this wave, but it can’t keep going up forever......... or can it
I thought that at 75c and had a wee break then it jumped to over $1 then shot up to $2 and had to buy back at higher price.

[couta1]

Patiently waiting for Mr Market to apply the same blow torch to SML Ditto, pretty dull and boring for us latecomers, would be different if I had held my original holding purchased at $2.73.

[NZSilver]

Sold a fair whack yesterday, kicked myself this morning - but dropping at the moment

[Beagle]

Another good day for the milky bar kid and all his mates :)

[Leftfield]

Another good day for the milky bar kid and all his mates :)

A good day for those of us who still hold PPH too ;)

[minimoke]

A good day for those of us who still hold PPH too ;)
And THL as well

[couta1]

A good day for those of us who still hold PPH too ;) Chinese babies don't eat PPH.

[Beagle]

Chinese babies don't eat PPH.

:lol: :lol: Classic mate.

[hardt]

Expecting some profit taking soon... I don't think this one has run up so quickly without being followed by a bit of dumping.

Have to leave something in the tank for the 1H.

[Beagle]

Agreed we are due for a correction and although pouncing is normally the preserve of cat's this hound is poised to pounce for a top up.
Disc Topped up with a few today at close to the top and slightly above VWAP...a few cents here or there won't matter when they're the same price in 5 years...after a 3:1 share split :D Plenty of dry powder ready for the pullback...

[nomis]

Ditto, pretty dull and boring for us latecomers, would be different if I had held my original holding purchased at $2.73.


same if i held my 1.70 Should probably buy back in

[NZSilver]

yep i expect it to come back a bit, closed at 9.22 NZD equivalent on the ASX. Around the $8.70 NZD mark looking at history

[see weed]

Agreed we are due for a correction and although pouncing is normally the preserve of cat's this hound is poised to pounce for a top up.
Disc Topped up with a few today at close to the top and slightly above VWAP...a few cents here or there won't matter when they're the same price in 5 years...after a 3:1 share split :D Plenty of dry powder ready for the pullback...


What price would you buy back in?

[minimoke]

Solid Au buying at $8.41 at the moment so hopefully we will enter a holding pattern, rather than profit take or correction

[couta1]

Solid Au buying at $8.41 at the moment so hopefully we will enter a holding pattern, rather than profit take or correction Keeping the Shorting animals at Bay until the result could be asking a bit much. PS-Let them loose.

[Muppett]

Solid Au buying at $8.41 at the moment so hopefully we will enter a holding pattern, rather than profit take or correction
?
No trades today as its Australia Day. $8.41 was yesterday.

[minimoke]

?
No trades today as its Australia Day. $8.41 was yesterday.
I stand corrected - depth still showing - lesson to self.look at the little numbers

[see weed]

Be good if it goes down another 50c next week. Might let some in who missed out last week.

[Snoopy]

My 2 cents is that to understand this company in terms of its valuation one needs to look at FY19 forecast figures. Synlait have only just doubled canning and drying capacity so there is a chance in the short term there might be enough supply to meet rampant demand before Synlait have to ramp up production again in due course.


IIRC correctly Sylait are controlled by Chinese interests. Those Chinese interests were primarily interested in securing supply for their own brands in China. ATM is merely a profitable customer, which does not have dibs on any new production capacity at Synlait.



It won 't surprise me in the years ahead if demand growth continues to make it near impossible to keep a reliable supply.


Nah can't happen. ATMs Share price performance shows that the laws of breeding biology have probably changed and as many A2 cows as needed can now be 3D printed.



I can see the possibility of a 1:1 scrip based takeover of Synlait coming at some stage so ATM can control the supply chain in the manner it needs too.


Sounds very unlikely to me. When the Chinese buy in, they buy in for the long term. They went to a lot of effort to make sure they control Synlait, even though they hold less than 50% of the shares last time I heard. I would say it is very unlikely the Chinese are willing to give up control of Synlait via a scrip takeover.

SNOOPY

.

[steveb]

Be good if it goes down another 50c next week. Might let some in who missed out last week.

Seaweed the price drops every month between the 8th to the 11th of each month.its an exciting stock but sometimes as they say patience is a virtue

[NZSilver]

Big drop in ASX open today. I can see it heading to mid 8's NZD from here.

[couta1]

Big drop in ASX open today. I can see it heading to mid 8's NZD from here. Oh please, let it be.PS-Short volume on the rise.

[777]

Big drop in ASX open today. I can see it heading to mid 8's NZD from here.

See it or hope that it does.

[see weed]

Seaweed the price drops every month between the 8th to the 11th of each month.its an exciting stock but sometimes as they say patience is a virtue
If that's the case, maybe a good time to sell now, and buy back at a lower price in 9 days time.;)

[hardt]

If that's the case, maybe a good time to sell now, and buy back at a lower price in 9 days time.;)

The price rises every month between the 1st and 30th of each month.

But yea, it should taper off a bit before the results... hopefully.

[winner69]

The price rises every month between the 1st and 30th of each month.

But yea, it should taper off a bit before the results... hopefully.

Didn’t seem to in Nov and Dec

January different and February.l

Ten bucks here we come

[pierre]

Didn’t seem to in Nov and Dec

January different and February.l

Ten bucks here we come

Or maybe nine bucks?

[NZSilver]

Yep weakness is showing over the last 2 days. I sold the rest today an anticipation of a lower price point

[see weed]

Seaweed the price drops every month between the 8th to the 11th of each month.its an exciting stock but sometimes as they say patience is a virtue
But this time is different, says the shoeshine boy. The 8th to the 11th of Feb. is about the time of the next trading update, and am predicting the sp to be fairly strong at that date. Somewhere in the 9.30 to 9.80 range;).

[Leftfield]

But this time is different, says the shoeshine boy. The 8th to the 11th of Feb. is about the time of the next trading update, and am predicting the sp to be fairly strong at that date. Somewhere in the 9.30 to 9.80 range;).

Their web site says next update 21 Feb??

[couta1]

Their web site says next update 21 Feb?? That's the half year result, I think he means a trading update before the half year.

[Leftfield]

Cool thanks Couta....... time will tell. Me happy to be patient, but appreciate there may be good opportunities for some to top-up in the short term.

[see weed]

Seaweed the price drops every month between the 8th to the 11th of each month.its an exciting stock but sometimes as they say patience is a virtue
steveb today looks like an early 8-11. who got back in at 8.70?

[longy]

It seems rather mad to jumped back in now but I just did. Since my Doc have told me to cut out caffeine completely I would need something else to keep my heart pulsing :)

[minimoke]

I love all this pre 5:00 close activity. All the jiggery pokery with ATM matching at $9.20 at the moment.

[gbogo]

yes, strong buying in the closing auction that wasn't there as bids 20 mins ago, AFAI could see. suggests to me that someone really needs them but didn't want to show their hand. Same in PPH actually, to a lesser extent. but positive closes after significant dips on a day when US stocks got hammered, is very positive price action, IMV.

[see weed]

It seems rather mad to jumped back in now but I just did. Since my Doc have told me to cut out caffeine completely I would need something else to keep my heart pulsing :)
Good on you, and congrats to all who got in the 8.70s. Been stocking up a few more myself lately. I do think sp will remain strong until next update. But then again if there is any more little scarey bits like today, then jump in.

[Beagle]

It seems rather mad to jumped back in now but I just did. Since my Doc have told me to cut out caffeine completely I would need something else to keep my heart pulsing :)

LOL but what was the underlying reason your Doc told you to cut out caffine ? If it was an underlying slight problem with blood pressure I suggest you go back to coffee, its probably the lesser of two evils :)

[couta1]

This end of month balancing could be masking further falls over the next while, I resisted topping up any as it didn't go below $8.50.

[minimoke]

This end of month balancing could be masking further falls over the next while, I resisted topping up any as it didn't go below $8.50.
My Portfolio#2 went up 0.9% in 15 minutes after starting the day in the doldrums. At least I start Feb on a high.

[longy]

LOL but what was the underlying reason your Doc told you to cut out caffine ? If it was an underlying slight problem with blood pressure I suggest you go back to coffee, its probably the lesser of two evils :)

Lol... It is nice to feel the heart jumping but I rather knowing it is in there working than feeling it. I came to Doc to see what they could do for the palpitation with my heart. After some tests she came up with zero caffeinated drinks from here on. My day is a bit dull so just as well these stocks provided me with lots of excitement. :)

[dobby41]

At least I start Feb on a high.

Let's hope it ends Feb on a high also.

[minimoke]

Let's hope it ends Feb on a high also.I dont have an expectation for month-on-month growth in share value. Yearly - yes. Monthly - No. But what the new high means is that I can afford the troughs without getting more nervous. It shifts my stop loss out which means I have more to make if things go pear shaped.

[see weed]

Well just couldn't help myself, must be addicted. Bought back on open, everything I sold last week:) The gods must be crazy.

[longy]

I was surprised to see ATM dropped while A2M in OZ jumped 5% plus.

[777]

I was surprised to see ATM dropped while A2M in OZ jumped 5% plus.

Simply because NZ market had to play catch up due no trading on Tuesday.

[Ggcc]

Did you buy in couta? $8.50 was you entry level

[couta1]

Did you buy in couta? $8.50 was you entry level Nah, I was hoping it was going to drift a bit lower, but it's showing good resilience. PS-Spent nearly all my spare cash yesterday anyways.

[Leftfield]

Additional A2 IF milk production inching closer. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/101253786/230m-happy-valley-milk-plant-consent-approved)

Whether this expansion provides additional IF supply for ATM or is future competition, remains to be seen.

[Sideshow Bob]

Additional A2 IF milk production inching closer. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/101253786/230m-happy-valley-milk-plant-consent-approved)

Whether this expansion provides additional IF supply for ATM or is future competition, remains to be seen.

Have A2 said anything publicly about this? I would have thought if going to A2 they would also start the process of converting herds etc ahead of time.

[Leftfield]

Have A2 said anything publicly about this? I would have thought if going to A2 they would also start the process of converting herds etc ahead of time.

ATM have said nothing publicly that I'm aware of...... however with production still 2 years away, it is early days plus I vaguely recall that in an earlier release, this company said it already had A2 herds ready. My guess is that they will need to work with ATM in some way.

[whome]

I think it is great that a new NZ milk products company intends to capitalise on the unique marketing advantages that go with licensed A2 products, (and I am presuming they will have to be licensed to ATM), rather than just add to the commodity milk products pool. The market potential for A2 products is HUGE, and only just begun to be realised

As I understand it, sourcing A2 herds is relatively easy in NZ, as purebred Jersey cows have A2 dominant genes, or should I say they lack the A1 gene. Jersey cows are well suited to NZ conditions with long established herds in Waikato and even more in Taranaki. It remains for the cows to be tested and A2 certified, which is a cost, but with significant downstream benefits for the farmer. They have 2 years to gear up for Happy Valley but expect more companies like this to arise.

A pity the big F has sought to oppose the development of A2 at all stages, and I don’t see the blinkered approach changing any time soon, so long as it remains a farmer led co-op.

[ziggy415]

I seem to remember the patent for A2 milk does run out and I remember thinking at the time that that date was not too far in the future...will have to search the memory banks

[ziggy415]

I seem to remember the patent for A2 milk does run out and I remember thinking at the time that that date was not too far in the future...will have to search the memory banks
Oops think it may be the patent for identifying a2 cows I was thinking of...the milk one looks it might go to 2036 or something....

[peat]

Oops think it may be the patent for identifying a2 cows I was thinking of...the milk one looks it might go to 2036 or something....
my understanding is that yes its the test to identify an A2 cow that has been patented (or at least one way of doing the test).
I dont think the A2 milk can be patented because its naturally occurring.
As per my post https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited&p=687430&viewfull=1#post687430

[minimoke]

Or maybe nine bucks?
two weeks later we might just get there today. Current bids at $8.98

Edit - there you go. $9.00. Whats all this "Black Monday" fuss all about? Edit edit - sorry menat $9.05. Edit edit edit. My mistake $9.15. I cant keep up!

[Sideshow Bob]

1 week to wait until HY results. Share price looking solid and interesting to see activity in the run-up to release - and their history of over-delivering.

[NZSilver]

Do we have a date? Last year was the 15th feb release, I can't remember them announcing any particular date?

[dreamcatcher]

Do we have a date? Last year was the 15th feb release, I can't remember them announcing any particular date?




21st February

[Sideshow Bob]

It is on the A2 investors centre website.

[Filthy]

there was no on-market buy back, so does anyone have any anticipation of an announcement of a special on Wednesday?

also, as much as it would be good to see profits completely reinvested back into the companies continued growth, one might also assume that they may also mention the next FY will carry a small ordinary - any expectations on this?

if I were to have a complete guess (and using the back of a cigarette packet), we might be in for a 10c special and 10-15c (pa) thereafter….

I really do miss having my weekly A2 delivered by Ocado when I was in London!



filthy

[Leftfield]

there was no on-market buy back, so does anyone have any anticipation of an announcement of a special on Wednesday?

also, as much as it would be good to see profits completely reinvested back into the companies continued growth, one might also assume that they may also mention the next FY will carry a small ordinary - any expectations on this?

filthy

I'm not too fussed on the dividend as so far their focus on growth has been spot on.

What would really excite me would be news of their potential listing in USA (where they are doing so well!!)

[minimoke]

I bought soley to give me a "cheap' entry point into future dividends. I have no objection if profits are re-invested back into the company to help sustain growth with less debt

[Leftfield]

SP chart nudging recent highs - check
Bollinger bands tightening - check
MACD favourable- check

Results tomorrow...... waiting patiently!!

[winner69]

SP chart nudging recent highs - check
Bollinger bands tightening - check
MACD favourable- check

Results tomorrow...... waiting patiently!!

Bollinger bands tightening = imminent breakout eh

That $10 must be pretty soon

[see weed]

Mark. Cap Today....SKC=2.704B, AIR=3.323B, CEN=3.774B, FBU=4.795B, SPK=6.348B and little young itsy bitsy a2=6.867B, if only we knew that a year ago:D.

[hardt]

Mark. Cap Today....SKC=2.704B, AIR=3.323B, CEN=3.774B, FBU=4.795B, SPK=6.348B and little young itsy bitsy a2=6.867B, if only we knew that a year ago:D.

we did, didn't we? :cool:

RE tomorrows report, I am very anxious of a selldown in the event of any little thing not being perfect.

[minimoke]

we did, didn't we? :cool:

RE tomorrows report, I am very anxious of a selldown in the event of any little thing not being perfect.
Mr Market hasn't got a sniff of any issues - still up again today to $9.37, just shy of all time high

[couta1]

we did, didn't we? :cool:

RE tomorrows report, I am very anxious of a selldown in the event of any little thing not being perfect. Has happened before even when everything has been perfect, but why worry when the stock will be worth double it's current price in a few years time.

[Sideshow Bob]

I look forward to A2 updates/announcements more than Christmas - with the bonus of not having to sit around with the wife's family all day, and not feeling bloated from stuffing my face.

Roll on tomorrow!

[suse]

I have major FOMO and have consequently bought back in.

[JeremyALD]

Has happened before even when everything has been perfect, but why worry when the stock will be worth double it's current price in a few years time.

It really does feel that way. What are their biggest risk to success? It's seems they are through a lot of them and have huge forward momentum.

I'd be keen on topping up again at $8. Wonder if that will ever happen!

[Beagle]

Expecting a really good result tomorrow. The effect of Synlait's doubling of drying and canning capacity in November 2017 won't be felt a huge amount in the half year result tomorrow due to the time and logistics of getting finished product to market but I am expecting a really serious increase in sales in the current half.

[winner69]

Expecting a really good result tomorrow. The effect of Synlait's doubling of drying and canning capacity in November 2017 won't be felt a huge amount in the half year result tomorrow due to the time and logistics of getting finished product to market but I am expecting a really serious increase in sales in the current half.

good enough to take share price over $10

[minimoke]

good enough to take share price over $10No - some anticipation already built in.

[NZSilver]

It's going to be all in the outlook/update on how trading is going.

[whome]

At the Auckland meeting on Sunday, some discussion was around the strength of the A2 patents and their time to expiry. A google search brought up an interesting HOt Copper post, copied below with acknowledgment to the HC poster. Put my mind at ease with regard to A2 patents position. Looking forward to tomorrow’s update.



k (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/discussions/asx---by-stock/) - A2M (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/asx/a2m/)
Watch Thread (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/watch-confirm)










koayyiwei (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/search/search?type=post&users=koayyiwei)13 posts.

13/10/1509:57:42Post #:16163923 (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-strong-patent-strategy-delivering-value-for-the-company.2614255/posts/16163923/single)


I've spent about an hour today researching on A2 Milk patents. I would strongly encourage you guys to do so as well. Go to Google Patent, then look for 'A2 Milk Corporation' or whatever keyword search that will lead you to A2 Milk Company.

E.g. https://www.google.com.au/patents/U...ved=0CCMQ6AEwAWoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt (https://www.google.com.au/patents/US7563575?dq=a2+corporation&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAWoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt)

https://www.google.com.au/patents/U...ved=0CDEQ6AEwA2oVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt (https://www.google.com.au/patents/US20060280802?dq=a2+corporation&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDEQ6AEwA2oVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt)

https://www.google.com.au/patents/U...ved=0CDgQ6AEwBGoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt (https://www.google.com.au/patents/US7851147?dq=a2+corporation&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDgQ6AEwBGoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt)

https://www.google.com.au/patents/U...ved=0CD8Q6AEwBWoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt (https://www.google.com.au/patents/US7629119?dq=a2+corporation&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CD8Q6AEwBWoVChMI89aCqoG-yAIVxOWmCh1PuQkt)

One thing that is interesting to note is that the methodology for identifying the A2 Milk Cows patent (Animal genotyping method) was filed in May 2003, which means that A2 Milk company will have this patent reserved for them at least till 2023! This is another 8 years away!! The other companies won't have the cheap and fast way of determining which cows are A2-Only variant. By 2023, A2 Milk will have the dominant market to produce A2-Only Protein milk and other competitors will struggle to enter the market.

It's a very bad misconception out there that they will lose their patent rights soon. One thing to note as you look at their series of patents is that they've continuously filed more and more patents to protect against the expiration of their patents. E.g. for the patent "Breeding and milking cows for milk free of β-casein A1", they keep on extending this patent by including more and more information in the patent as they keep on researching on it, and as long as they are able to release information in bits and pieces, they should be able to protect their patent. The last grant of this patent as we can see is in 2009, which means that they should be able to hold it till 2029!!

The one that's going to expire this year is the 'Method of selecting non-diabetogenic milk or milk products and milk or milk products so selected' which was filed in Nov 1995. From my perspective, this is a non-event as this is not the key to how they could commercialise the A2-protein variant milk.

In short, A2 Milk Company has invested a lot of money into R&D and they will not easily let other competitors to enter the market. Do your own research!

[see weed]

Thanks for that info Whome. Forgot about the update until this afternoon, so quickly bought back the ones sold last week. Good results tomorrow and yes $10.50 ono. here we come:t_up: we all hope.

[hardt]

400-430m in sales and further marginal expansion expected...

Disc: 50% of my net worth is in the A2 bubble.

[see weed]

we did, didn't we? :cool:

RE tomorrows report, I am very anxious of a selldown in the event of any little thing not being perfect.
I hear what you are saying. But this time is different. I remember too well with sp drops on announcement days. There was lots of uncertainties back then, The A2 Milk Company know where they are going now, as per usual, and are doing it:t_up:. There might be a short lived little drop then off we go to 9.60 and beyond. But, unless there is a big drop on the Dow etc.then carry on paddling:D.

[winner69]

Pity they didn’t break through the $100m npat mark

But pretty astounding anyway :cool::cool:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/314467/274778.pdf

[777]

Two years ago, on announcement date, the share price rocketed up tp to 2.49 from 2.15 odd. I put a sell order in at that price but by the time my order got there I got 2.51. I bought them back later that day for 2.15. Let's hope the same excitement is repeated today.


Link for report

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/a2MC_Interim_Report_End_Dec_17.pdf

[JeremyALD]

This result is bloody exceptional. $100m NPAT?! That is outstanding.

[minimoke]

Agreement with Fonterra good news for ATM but maybe not for SML

[winner69]

This is fantastic news - being friends with Fonterra must be good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/314485/274797.pdf

[minimoke]

Total revenue of $434. An increase of 70% over 7m the prior corresponding period (pcp)
EBITDA1 of $143.0m 123% ahead of the pcp

Net profit after tax of $98. 150% ahead of the pcp 5m

Basic earning per share (EPS) of 13.6¢ an increase of 147% on pcp

Operating cash flow of $116.4m

and a cash balance of $240.2 million at period end

[JeremyALD]

Agreement with Fonterra good news for ATM but maybe not for SML

Ouch just saw this. What will this mean for SML? Any direct impacts or more of a dimmer on future performance?

[percy]

This result is bloody exceptional. $100m NPAT?! That is outstanding.

Well done holders.

[Scooter]

Or could it also mean Synlait cannot handle the volume even with their new factory and A2 need more processing power

[minimoke]

Or could it also mean Synlait cannot handle the volume even with their new factory and A2 need more processing powerThats known. I guess saving grace is ATM shareholding in SML - they wont want to see that devalued.

[silu]

The result is fantastic but I think it will be the announced strategic relationship with Fonterra that will boost the SP today.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/314467/274777.pdf

This is a phenomenal result in its own right, (EPS which is what really counts is up just on 150%) but when you consider that for much of this half they were supply constrained (Synlait's doubling of canning and drying facilities only kicked into gear in November) the future growth prospects look truly exceptional especially with the strategic arrnagements with Fonterra which look to secure their long term supply arrangements.

Synlait, (I also hold) will do just fine with their recent doubling of capacity and other growth initiatives.

For those that think the PE is too high I note half year EPS of 13.7 cps. It should be plainly obvious with the doubling of supply capability of Synlait now in full swing that the company should easily eclipse EPS for the full year of an absolute minimum of 30 cps, (my target is higher) and at $9.30 that puts ATM on a 2018 PE of 31.
This company is shaping up as the premier growth stock on the NZX and I think that PE is very cheap for the way the company is growing and its medium and long term growth opportunities.

ATM presents as an outstanding opportunity for shareholders to build wealth going forward. Disc: I topped up late last week and again yesterday.

[see weed]

Isn't it funny how ASB Securities shows the announcement at 8.31am on their site, but blocks you from reading it. Over half an hour now:t_down:.

[JeremyALD]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/314467/274777.pdf

This is a phenomenal result in its own right, (EPS which is what really counts is up just on 150%) but when you consider that for much of this half they were supply constrained (Synlait's doubling of canning and drying facilities only kicked into gear in November) the future growth prospects look truly exceptional especially with the strategic arrnagements with Fonterra which look to secure their long term supply arrangements.

Synlait, (I also hold) will do just fine with their recent doubling of capacity and other growth initiatives.

For those that think the PE is too high I note half year EPS of 13.7 cps. It should be plainly obvious with the doubling of supply capability of Synlait now in full swing that the company should easily eclipse EPS for the full year of an absolute minimum of 30 cps, (my target is higher) and at $9.30 that puts ATM on a 2018 PE of 31.
This company is shaping up as the premier growth stock on the NZX and I think that PE is very cheap for the way the company is growing and its medium and long term growth opportunities.

ATM presents as an outstanding opportunity for shareholders to build wealth going forward. Disc: I topped up late last week and again yesterday.

I agree - they always have tons of cash. How many fastly growing companies can say that?

[JeremyALD]

You also think this is big acknowledgement by Fonterra that they need to jump onboard with ATM rather than try and compete a losing game. Good result for both companies.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

Before this announcement the average brokers expectation was for EPS of 23.7 cps for 2018. I'm expecting them to exceed brokers EPS targets for FY19 of 31 cps and am therefore expecting analyst upgrades on the back of this superb result.

[bull....]

pe still very high ... expensive if your buying now i reckon

[Beagle]

I agree - they always have tons of cash. How many fastly growing companies can say that?

Just one that I can think of mate :)

[winner69]

beagle says — this company is shaping up as the premier growth stock on the NZX ....

NO NO you are WRONG

It’s the premier growth stock in the world

Already getting US punters interested .....watch the rush as they come after your shares

[Beagle]

pe still very high ... expensive if your buying now i reckon

Do you really expect to buy a company growing earnings at 150% on a market average PE for 2018 earnings of about 22 ? If so its time for a serious reality check mate.
Companies growing earnings at this rate on the NASDAQ can trade at 100 times earnings or even more ! Bottom line is the PEG (Price earnings to growth) is just on 0.2. Anything less than 1 is considered good value. 0.2 is exceptional value and I would reiterate, for much of this half they were product supply constrained !
My one reservation with this company about how they are going to source enough A2 raw milk in the future has been solved with the Fonterra strategic agreement.

[couta1]

pe still very high ... expensive if your buying now i reckon No it's not, will be double it's current price within 3 years, you read it here first.PS-Please make a note in your diaries so you can hold me to it, remember 21/2/2021.

[blackcap]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/314467/274777.pdf

This is a phenomenal result in its own right, (EPS which is what really counts is up just on 150%) but when you consider that for much of this half they were supply constrained (Synlait's doubling of canning and drying facilities only kicked into gear in November) the future growth prospects look truly exceptional especially with the strategic arrnagements with Fonterra which look to secure their long term supply arrangements.

Synlait, (I also hold) will do just fine with their recent doubling of capacity and other growth initiatives.

For those that think the PE is too high I note half year EPS of 13.7 cps. It should be plainly obvious with the doubling of supply capability of Synlait now in full swing that the company should easily eclipse EPS for the full year of an absolute minimum of 30 cps, (my target is higher) and at $9.30 that puts ATM on a 2018 PE of 31.
This company is shaping up as the premier growth stock on the NZX and I think that PE is very cheap for the way the company is growing and its medium and long term growth opportunities.

ATM presents as an outstanding opportunity for shareholders to build wealth going forward. Disc: I topped up late last week and again yesterday.

Exactly.. and my father bought at 10 cents about 10 years ago. Imagine his delight!

(he did sell some when the SP rocketed to 50 cents during 2012)

[winner69]

Do you really expect to buy a company growing earnings at 150% on a market average PE for 2018 earnings of about 22 ?
Companies growing earnings at this rate on the NASDAQ can trade at 100 times earnings or even more ! Bottom line is the PEG Price earnings to growth is just on 0.2. Anything less than 1 is considered good value. 0.2 is exceptional value and I would reiterate, for much of this half they were product supply constrained !

What does the Graham formula you all love give as an intrinsic value

[Sideshow Bob]

You also think this is big acknowledgement by Fonterra that they need to jump onboard with ATM rather than try and compete a losing game. Good result for both companies.

Theo a bit keener on A2 than what he was in the past? Maybe keen to back a winner??

[bull....]

the average pe for dairy companies is what should be compared against , its not a tech company lol

[Sideshow Bob]

What does the Graham formula you all love give as an intrinsic value

I'm looking forward to Snoopy's valuation. May have crested $3.50 by now.....

[Beagle]

the average pe for dairy companies is what should be compared against , its not a tech company lol
]
Quite oibviously I was using tech as an example because its so hard to find companies growing eps at 150%. Good luck trying to buy them on a multiple other dairy companies trade at.

[silu]

beagle says — this company is shaping up as the premier growth stock on the NZX ....

NO NO you are WRONG

It’s the premier growth stock in the world

Already getting US punters interested .....watch the rush as they come after your shares

You know you're not wrong. A colleague's kids live in Dallas and the other in SF and you could call them horrible soccer mums. My colleague told me that they are sniffing out A2 milk and telling other parents all about it and are active on FB with all the latest health fads.

Maybe in future the ladies who lunch in LA will order a half double decaffeinated half-caf, with a twist of lemon..... and A2 milk

[JeremyALD]

No it's not, will be double it's current price within 3 years, you read it here first.PS-Please make a note in your diaries so you can hold me to it, remember 21/2/2021.

That seems a bit Conservative Couta!!

[minimoke]

These folks seem to be one of the more efficient money printing machines around. How long before some of that money heads off to shareholders. I'm in no hurry for a dividend but at some point they are going to have to get bigger front end loaders to keep shovelling the cash around

[Leftfield]

Great result!

I'm v impressed by the unexpected JV with Frontera. This demonstrates the key benefit of the A2 business model. By contracting out its manufacturing and distribution it can grow exponentially and does not have to worry about investment in plant. It can pick and choose from the best manufacturers in the USA, UK, NZ, Aus and Asia.

Can't wait to see A2 properly marketed in NZ!

Still no mention of dividends, but with heaps of cash, there are heaps of opportunities. With growth like this why rush?

Happy to have 60% of my portfolio in this company..... now looking very XXXOS in Couta's terms! :t_up:

[Leftfield]

ps my Left Field expectation is that one day A2 will jointly list in USA..... look out!

[silu]

Still mind boggling that in May 2015 this was only 50c. I thought I was happy selling some at $1.10 and then at $1.60. Thought it couldn't go higher when I sold some more at $5.50. The rest I have will not be for sale.

[mfd]

Agreement with fonterra looks fantastic, new milk supplies in NZ, Australia and China, fonterra marketing A2 in NZ, fonterra tasked with developing A2 butter and cheese for sale in NZ, Australia and China, increased supply to open markets in south East Asia and the middle East. Great work, plenty more scope for growth.

[sb9]

Just lost for words..this lil (may be giant now) beauty keeps delivering....$434ml sales for this half and they did $262ml for first four moths as per update at ASMin Nov. So they've done $172ml for final 2 months (ave of $86ml per month). That's massive, at this rate with increased supply from Synlait they could easily do $500ml+ for later half which would surpass the number to $1bln in sales for the full year.

Wow, that would be huge and imagine all that cash they are sitting on $240ml....

Surely, sp in double digits from here, no looking back.

PS- I tht of selling a 10th of my holdings today, but after seeing the report not letting mine go any cheaply nor did any of the management sold any in the recent past. That tells you something..

[bull....]

definately the premier growth stock in nz and just one of a few up for the year to date .... probably pop due to that fact ... ill wait for the aussies to come on to see what they do

[hardt]

Holy mother of growth.

They keep outperforming the most optimistic of us... :t_up:

[Beagle]

Just lost for words..this lil (may be giant now) beauty keeps delivering....$434ml sales for this half and they did $262ml for first four moths as per update at ASMin Nov. So they've done $172ml for final 2 months (ave of $86ml per month). That's massive, at this rate with increased supply from Synlait they could easily do $500ml+ for later half which would surpass the number to $1bln in sales for the full year.

Wow, that would be huge and imagine all that cash they are sitting on $240ml....

Surely, sp in double digits from here, no looking back.

PS- I tht of selling a 10th of my holdings today, but after seeing the report not letting mine go any cheaply nor did any of the management sold any in the recent past. That tells you something..
Keep in mind those new Synlait plants didn't start operation until part way through the month of November and then there's time to get the product to market.
I'm thinking $600-700m sales this half. They've said they're "pleased" with January's sales. I think that's "code speak" for sales of $100m+ for that month.

[whome]

Brilliant result for shareholders. The JV announcement with Fonterra will be looked back on as a ‘tear down the Berlin Wall’ moment, and great news for NZ Inc., as this paves the way for the whole NZ dairy industry to partake in the unique marketing opportunity that is A2 - a giant leap forward for Fonterra. NZ Production capability can now be maximised and not be a potential limiting factor. A2 is one of only 15 brands approved for China IF. Now at last Fonterra can leverage that as well.

[silu]

The pre-market build is fizzing. Well over $10. People are shouting BUY into their phones to their brokers right now like its 1986.

[winner69]

The pre-market build is fizzing. Well over $10. People are shouting BUY into their phones to their brokers right now like its 1986.

No not BUY. But BUY BUY BUY BUY

[Ninefingers]

Crikey. Very nice report, glad I've held these since 60c. Even convinced my Mum to buy some! Did pass up putting $16k into them when they trickled down 50c though, investing eh, what a tough cookie.

Now hows about that new deck, somewhere nice to sit and drink a long cool glass of A2.

Also must thank the regular posters on this forum, definitely helped me refine my invest strategy over the last few years.

[bull....]

used to own them at 50c too .... not a holder now

[winner69]

Neighbour and his mates down the bowling club estactic as hell this morning

Better than Term Deposits this share market game they say. Forgiven their past ventures into Comvita, , Hallensteins and Air NZ for eroding their capital in search of divies

Taken more out of the bank and buying more A2 shares they say

[Beagle]

I'm pretty confident these will be $5 in 2-3 years time, after a five for one share split along the way.

[NZSilver]

Very tidy result, and as a Fonterra Suppliers, I'm so glad to see the JV with Fonterra! I think we will see $12NZD/share today. Do not get caught up in this PE - if they double profits each year than the PE will halve, this could easily be prices at a PE of 60 with nil debt, rev/EBITDA,profit growth and its spitting substantial cash out. Very sound business. Enjoy.

[suse]

crikey. Just checked what the price is up to already - $10.80. no doubt it will drop back as the day progresses but wow. Feeling quite glad I let FOMO rule my head yesterday. wish I had the guts to buy a lot more.

[Sideshow Bob]

used to own them at 50c too .... not a holder now

Not in bad company though - Geoff Babidge sold some recently - think it was in the $3's....

[NZSilver]

crikey. Just checked what the price is up to already - $10.80. no doubt it will drop back as the day progresses but wow. Feeling quite glad I let FOMO rule my head yesterday. wish I had the guts to buy a lot more.

How does that line in that famous song go... something like "you ain't seen nothing yet..."

[JeremyALD]

How does that line in that famous song go... something like "you ain't seen nothing yet..."

Have a buy order in at $10 - is that too optimistic?

[blackcap]

WOW a2 just shot portfolio into 7 plus figures which was my target for end of financial year. Now I can retire for a little while :t_up::D:cool::t_up:.

Well done and good on you. You were a "believer" right from the start if I remember correctly and its good to see your convictions and hard work pay off.

[Sideshow Bob]

crikey. Just checked what the price is up to already - $10.80. no doubt it will drop back as the day progresses but wow. Feeling quite glad I let FOMO rule my head yesterday. wish I had the guts to buy a lot more.

Good on ya Suse! :t_up:

[winner69]

Can’t wait until it opens at $11 on the ASX

[suse]

WOW a2 just shot portfolio into 7 plus figures which was my target for end of financial year. Now I can retire for a little while :t_up::D:cool::t_up:.

That is awesome! well done!

[NZSilver]

Have a buy order in at $10 - is that too optimistic?

Well I would say one the ASX opens it will push higher again... but then again no one can predict the future accurately. However if we look soley at PEs which I think misses several key points; value this at 40PE @ 28c EPS 18 = $1120NZD, but could potentially move to a PE of 60 @ 28c EPS 18 = $1680NZD, now everyone will curse me but i had a valuation of 9.20 before results and $10 after....

[Bazingaboy]

Wow, I bet my pet dog that there wouldn't be this much of an increase and he quickly barked it off. Now I can treat him to a nice meal or two!

[hardt]

The agreement with Fonterra is for wet milk products and an Australian facility to further product mix in NEW Markets.

The booming powders contract is still in tact with Synlait... some misunderstanding on that front given SML is down 7%!!!

Might be time to buy SML given the monstrous growth required to facilitate A2's half.

[misterx]

Holly Molly what a stunning results congrats to everyone :)

[suse]

The agreement with Fonterra is for wet milk products and an Australian facility to further product mix.

The booming powders contract is still in tact with Synlait... some misunderstanding on that front given SML is down 7%!!!

Might be time to buy SML given the monstrous growth required to facilitate A2's half.

I was just wondering about that. it seems amazing that SML has had such a big drop. I may have to ditch my losers in my portfolio and suck up the loss to make a potential gain here.... (cause I'm out of cash at the mo)

[JeremyALD]

I was just wondering about that. it seems amazing that SML has had such a big drop. I may have to ditch my losers in my portfolio and suck up the loss to make a potential gain here.... (cause I'm out of cash at the mo)

I own SML and ATM so weird feeling!!! Hopefully SML recovers, it's been looking pretty weak of late.

[sb9]

The agreement with Fonterra is for wet milk products and an Australian facility to further product mix in NEW Markets.

The booming powders contract is still in tact with Synlait... some misunderstanding on that front given SML is down 7%!!!

Might be time to buy SML given the monstrous growth required to facilitate A2's half.

Exactly, as posted on Synlait's thread, people forget the fact its SML that hold CFDA approval and they all of A2 IF canning requirements. I too would like to buy more SML but no funds to avail, bummer...

[Ggcc]

We just hit $11.00 wow

[whatsup]

Right on 11.00 am when the aust traders can buy ATM shoots up .15c and now is $11.00 + another good ride today Im picking.

[Sideshow Bob]

We just hit $11.00 wow

Would be spewing if you sold yesterday......

[iceman]

WOW a2 just shot portfolio into 7 plus figures which was my target for end of financial year. Now I can retire for a little while :t_up::D:cool::t_up:.

Well done see weed. I remember the early days when not many believed in this company, you were down in the supermarket showing it to people :-)

[Blendy]

I just sold some from my kids portfolio that cost $1.84........ they'd better be grateful one day when they realise they have some money. (and that perhaps I'm not the meanest mum in the world after all!)

[RGR367]

This is where margin lending account comes in handy :cool: Got a lot already but since my average cost is still very very low and with such a report, how can I refuse what's on offer now by the Market :t_up: Congrats to all holders especially those that got me introduced to it on this thread in late 2014.

[winner69]

We just hit $11.00 wow

A$11 soon ....ASX opens soon

[hardt]

Looks like ASX will open weak and NZ will get crushed back to 980-1000

[Beagle]

Massive growth potential going forward. I think they can do 20 cps in the second half for full year earnings of 33.7 cps so even at $11 they're on a current year PE of just over 32. Pretty reasonable valuation from where I sit for such a phenomenal growth rate. Going forward into 2019 they will have access to a whole years doubling of supply from Synlaits new canning and drying plants, (only just on 7 months this year) so more outstanding growth for 2019 looks assured. Beyond that product development with the new Fonterra agreement will fuel more growth. Looks like an ideal long term investment to me.
Disc: Bought more last week, yesterday and this morning and looking for even more if there's a pullback into the low $10 range.

[blackcap]

Looks like ASX will open weak and NZ will get crushed back to 980-1000

Bit early to tell yet surely?

[Oliver Mander]

Worth noting that at $10.95, ATM is now New Zealand's largest publicly listed company...

[bull....]

Worth noting that at $10.95, ATM is now New Zealand's largest publicly listed company...

yes and the old guard slowly eroad shareholder value

[hardt]

Bit early to tell yet surely?

True that, forgot the infamous 09:45 bottleneck on the ASX

[nocomment]

well done to all the atm winners ... i think this officially confirms i suck at this trading game ... bought sml when i shouldve bought atm

[minimoke]

well done to all the atm winners ... i think this officially confirms i suck at this trading game ... bought sml when i shouldve bought atm
I hedged my bets and bought both.

[couta1]

well done to all the atm winners ... i think this officially confirms i suck at this trading game ... bought sml when i shouldve bought atm,SML will have it's day again, unfortunately its a share that makes watching paint dry exciting by comparison(Although im sure those that held from over a year ago have found it very exciting)

[Beagle]

Worth noting that at $10.95, ATM is now New Zealand's largest publicly listed company...

Well spotted. FPH market cap is $7.3 Billion, ATM $8.0 Billion at $11.

[t.rexjr]

I just sold some from my kids portfolio that cost $1.84........ they'd better be grateful one day when they realise they have some money. (and that perhaps I'm not the meanest mum in the world after all!)

They'de probably be more greatful had you held em...

[see weed]

Well done and good on you. You were a "believer" right from the start if I remember correctly and its good to see your convictions and hard work pay off.
Thanks bc. Can only dream of what if......if I had of kept the original 357k bought at .47 to .60c:).

[blackcap]

Thanks bc. Can only dream of what if......if I had of kept the original 357k bought at .47 to .60c:).

no worries, don't beat yourself up about that. Never wrong to take something off the table. My dad bought some at 10 cents and took some off at 50 cents too.... plenty of what ifs there as well. Best just ignore them :)

[couta1]

Thanks bc. Can only dream of what if......if I had of kept the original 357k bought at .47 to .60c:). Doesn't pay to dream too much of what if, I'm in a similar boat to you if I totalled all the ones I let go for a song in comparison to today's price. It's always good to be thankful for what you have, rather than what could have been.

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks bc. Can only dream of what if......if I had of kept the original 357k bought at .47 to .60c:).

I know someone who bought 5 million at 9c each and sold at 90c. I won't ask him today how his day is going! ;)

[see weed]

That is awesome! well done!
Thanks suse, Just remember it was mainly due to these discussions on sharetrader, so thank you too all sharetraders

[Leftfield]

Crikey…. I read the result early this morning…. heart starts pounding so I go for a walk to calm down and come back 2 hrs later over $70k better-off. ( Maybe that's not much to some, but that's a huge amount for me!) Thanks ATM. Thanks to other posters here who shared the belief over the last 3 - 4 yrs.)

As I digest today’s great news I think the key is still the Frontera link and although we expected gains due to the SML production doubling…. now the added Frontera JV greatly accelerates that growth.

The Frontera link means:

- A2’s valuable IP just got a major credibility boost.
- Huge growth in A2 raw milk production base.
- Huge growth in the number and variety of A2 product extensions available worldwide.

As one Hot Cpper poster summed it up;

“Basically, it's brought together the best of both companies: A2M's know how, branding and marketing with Fonterra's supply and manufacturing capacity in any product and region A2M's chooses to grow.”

Add to that, ATM’s growing strength in the UK and USA and whoopee. Our predictions of $12 a share by the end of 2018 are looking v conservative.

[couta1]

I know someone who bought 5 million at 9c each and sold at 90c. I won't ask him today how his day is going! ;) I'm sure his day is going just fine with the $4050000 profit he made.:cool:

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm sure his day is going just fine with the $4050000 profit he made.:cool:

Yeah I think he used that well elsewhere......

Although not sure why did didn't leave some as a 'free carry'.

[see weed]

Well done see weed. I remember the early days when not many believed in this company, you were down in the supermarket showing it to people :-)
Yes, the good old days sneaking around supermarket milk fridges cornering pregnant people and others, giving them a flier to read :)

[Beagle]

Crikey…. I read the result early this morning…. heart starts pounding so I go for a walk to calm down and come back 2 hrs later over $70k better-off. ( Maybe that's not much to some, but that's a huge amount for me!) Thanks ATM. Thanks to other posters here who shared the belief over the last 3 - 4 yrs.)

As I digest today’s great news I think the key is still the Frontera link and although we expected gains due to the SML production doubling…. now the added Frontera JV greatly accelerates that growth.

The Frontera link means:

- A2’s valuable IP just got a major credibility boost.
- Huge growth in A2 raw milk production base.
- Huge growth in the number and variety of A2 product extensions available worldwide.

As one Hot Cpper poster summed it up;

“Basically, it's brought together the best of both companies: A2M's know how, branding and marketing with Fonterra's supply and manufacturing capacity in any product and region A2M's chooses to grow.”

Add to that, ATM’s growing strength in the UK and USA and whoopee. Our predictions of $12 a share by the end of 2018 are looking v conservative.

Sums the situation up very nicely. P.S. I think $70K "matters" to most people on here :)

[minimoke]

$11.41. Up $2.12 and a 22.8% increase - when did we last see this kind of movement in anything on NZX?

[see weed]

I know someone who bought 5 million at 9c each and sold at 90c. I won't ask him today how his day is going! ;)
5,000,000 x 10.80= $54,000,000 at the moment:eek2:.

[see weed]

Doesn't pay to dream too much of what if, I'm in a similar boat to you if I totalled all the ones I let go for a song in comparison to today's price. It's always good to be thankful for what you have, rather than what could have been.
I was quite happy to sell down and make about $70k but did keep 40k long term. it was too scary watching holding going up or down $35,000 odd every time it moved 10c:ohmy:.

[Ted2]

Doesn't pay to dream too much of what if, I'm in a similar boat to you if I totalled all the ones I let go for a song in comparison to today's price. It's always good to be thankful for what you have, rather than what could have been.

Too true. I not only sold about 15% of my holding at 2.25, I told the wife not to buy at that price as it was too high! But the remaining 85% is a wonderful thing and makes me (almost) forget about that.............

[Exodia]

Just want to say thank you to the original believers in ATM, back in 2015 I was 18 with only $3,000 in savings to pick my first share, I chose ATM based on the thread discussions here and hours of my own research. Needless to say having bought in at 0.52 cents I now have enough for my first home deposit and am over the moon!

[Ted2]

Crikey…. I read the result early this morning…. heart starts pounding so I go for a walk to calm down and come back 2 hrs later over $70k better-off. ( Maybe that's not much to some, but that's a huge amount for me!) Thanks ATM. Thanks to other posters here who shared the belief over the last 3 - 4 yrs.)

As I digest today’s great news I think the key is still the Frontera link and although we expected gains due to the SML production doubling…. now the added Frontera JV greatly accelerates that growth.

The Frontera link means:

- A2’s valuable IP just got a major credibility boost.
- Huge growth in A2 raw milk production base.
- Huge growth in the number and variety of A2 product extensions available worldwide.

As one Hot Cpper poster summed it up;

“Basically, it's brought together the best of both companies: A2M's know how, branding and marketing with Fonterra's supply and manufacturing capacity in any product and region A2M's chooses to grow.”

Add to that, ATM’s growing strength in the UK and USA and whoopee. Our predictions of $12 a share by the end of 2018 are looking v conservative.


Just don't let Fonterra make any investment decisions. If they do exactly what the nice folk at A2 tell them to, then all should be fine and well!

[Sideshow Bob]

Just want to say thank you to the original believers in ATM, back in 2015 I was 18 with only $3,000 in savings to pick my first share, I chose ATM based on the thread discussions here and hours of my own research. Needless to say having bought in at 0.52 cents I now have enough for my first home deposit and am over the moon!

Awesome work Exodia! Love hearing stories such as this, especially from those starting off and making a significant difference to their financial lives.

In the meantime, keep living with your parents, save money and enjoy the ride!

[whatsup]

Just want to say thank you to the original believers in ATM, back in 2015 I was 18 with only $3,000 in savings to pick my first share, I chose ATM based on the thread discussions here and hours of my own research. Needless to say having bought in at 0.52 cents I now have enough for my first home deposit and am over the moon!

fantastic story, well done, enjoy your home, cheers.

[alistar_mid]

Just want to say thank you to the original believers in ATM, back in 2015 I was 18 with only $3,000 in savings to pick my first share, I chose ATM based on the thread discussions here and hours of my own research. Needless to say having bought in at 0.52 cents I now have enough for my first home deposit and am over the moon!


lol thats some good sh*t!

ATM keeps on giving never got in myself but milford loves it and thats where the majority of my non property wealth is!

[winner69]

$11.41. Up $2.12 and a 22.8% increase - when did we last see this kind of movement in anything on NZX?

More exciting than cryptos too ...isn’t it mate?

[minimoke]

More exciting than cryptos too ...isn’t it mate?Bitcoin or ATM? I know where I would sooner have my money!

[Ggcc]

What a disgustingly great day

[stones]

Adding my 2 cents worth thanks to all you guys who have the know how and happy to pass that on. Haven't got the same profits as some others but doing ok. Once again thank you!!!

[Oliver Mander]

At $13, becomes NZX's first $10bn company...wasn't going to post that for ages yet, but the way things are going will hit it by the end of next week...:-)!

[Beagle]

Just want to say thank you to the original believers in ATM, back in 2015 I was 18 with only $3,000 in savings to pick my first share, I chose ATM based on the thread discussions here and hours of my own research. Needless to say having bought in at 0.52 cents I now have enough for my first home deposit and am over the moon!

Congrats mate and well done to you for holding all that time.

[Joshuatree]

Yes a great story there Exodia,looks like the cow really did jump over the moon:D

[ohpark0119]

didn't make 1000% profit like others here but just paid for my return fares to aussie :)

[dobby41]

What does all this say about the market being continuously informed?
With a 24% jump it seems to me that the market had no idea of what the result was likely to be.
Or is it the Fonterra news that has driven this rise?

[mfd]

What does all this say about the market being continuously informed?
With a 24% jump it seems to me that the market had no idea of what the result was likely to be.
Or is it the Fonterra news that has driven this rise?

Result was in line with expectations and outlook wasn't hugely detailed, so yes I think it's mostly the fonterra news driving things. Eases a lot of concerns about supply and opens up new markets and products.

[Ggcc]

Will it be in the eyes of overseas companies for takeover? We see this as a huge company, but some overseas investment groups could swallow this up say at $15-$20 per share

[hardt]

Result was in line with expectations and outlook wasn't hugely detailed, so yes I think it's mostly the fonterra news driving things. Eases a lot of concerns about supply and opens up new markets and products.

Goldman Sachs, arguably the most bullish on A2M had their forecasts smashed.

Beat EBITDA estimate by 20+% and Sales estimate by 10%... beat gross margin estimate by 13 bps.

They definitely beat expectations this half.

[Rossimarnz]

I wonder when the takeover is coming... Of Fonterra I meant

[kizame]

pe still very high ... expensive if your buying now i reckon

Been sitting on a pe of 70, now at june 31st that will be a pe of 43 at current price,project that forward at 70 again and you get $18 c,mon man.

[Ggcc]

Australia almost closed 30% up in one day......... over $12 tomorrow morning in Nz . It baffles me that this company maybe well over $15 by the end of the year if numbers keeps coming

[bull....]

Been sitting on a pe of 70, now at june 31st that will be a pe of 43 at current price,project that forward at 70 again and you get $18 c,mon man.

c,mon man no way its gonna be on a pe of 70 again :p

[Raz]

All a little silly now..still i will take it..a modest shareholding which is now worth a reasonable amount :-)

[zgnz]

What a day.. wonder where the a2 story will be at, in another few years.

[Sideshow Bob]

NZs largest company and many kiwis have never heard of it.....yet.

[kizame]

c,mon man no way its gonna be on a pe of 70 again :p

Course bro, int. stock markets behaving, it will be on a PE of 70 again,this growth will only cement that eventuality. Int. markets behaving kindly of course.

[Beagle]

As stated earlier today I think 20 cps is achievable for the second half so 33.7 cps for the full year, current year PE is thus 35 based on my forecast. Looking further out the runway to future profit growth is abundantly clear for anyone with a modicum of vision and perception. 35 is not by any means unprecedented on the NZX and there are several stocks on the NZX trading on similar multiples ALL with VASTLY more modest growth prospects. Examples that spring readily to mind off the top of my head are AIA, POT, FPH.

Did the Australians like the result ? Well I think we can now say that was a very emphatic YES !!
Big volume here just over 5m shares traded for $56m in value and closed at $11.75 but what about in Australia !
A whopping 27m shares for over $A290 million in turnover and closed at $A11.30 = $N.Z.12.09 !

Well that's another day done and dusted, a very good one, must be time for the beagle's milk and cookie for supper.

[Beagle]

On another forum KW said she is hoping that ATM becomes the next Danone. Danone's market cap is 43 Billion Euro's.
Give it ten years, I wouldn't bet against that happening, such is the remarkable power of very high compounding earnings growth.
My shares are in the bottom drawer and someone will need to prise them out of my dead lifeless hands at some stage, (hopefully in the long distant future)

[minimoke]

On another forum KW said she is hoping that ATM becomes the next Danone. Danone's market cap is 43 Billion Euro's.
Early Life Nutrition - tick
Medical Nutrition - tick
Essential Dairy and Plant Based products - tick
Waters - cross

[winner69]

Share price well over $12 today ....maybe $13 I hope

Been pretty spot on with my ATM ‘predictions’ lately ....even if only a few days too early

[Beagle]

Share price well over $12 today ....maybe $13 I hope

Been pretty spot on with my ATM ‘predictions’ lately ....even if only a few days too early

You were spot on with your pick very early in the day yesterday that we'd see $A11, closed at $A11.30, well done !

[Leftfield]

ATM my first ever 20 Bagger!! :t_up:

[Beagle]

ATM my first ever 20 Bagger!! :t_up:

Congrats !

[black knat]

Forbarr revised price target $13 - outperform.

[winner69]

Forbarr revised price target $13 - outperform.

Jeez ....they not very optimistic eh

Price target $13 implies today’s price should be about $11

But gives us the warm fuzzies though

[black knat]

Jeez ....they not very optimistic eh

Price target $13 implies today’s price should be about $11

But gives us the warm fuzzies though

Their current DCF is $11.64 - so yeah, market thinks they are a bit conservative.

[Balance]

Forbarr revised price target $13 - outperform.

Same Forsyth Barr of Feltex fame who had a valuation of exactly $1 in July 2015?

[couta1]

This stock is just steamrolling my other big paper losses in SPK and SML, it's a Godsend.

[silu]

+ 2,015.7% within less than 3 years.

Could I ever have another investment like this in my life?

[Balance]

This stock is just steamrolling my other big paper losses in SPK and SML, it's a Godsend.

Spare a thought for the short sellers in Oz.

Ouch!

Ouc!

Ou!

O!

[black knat]

Same Forsyth Barr of Feltex fame who had a valuation of exactly $1 in July 2015?

Yes the very same ... haha.

[Beagle]

Spare a thought for the short sellers in Oz.

Ouch!

Ouc!

Ou!

O!

Short sellers lol...talk about being on a hiding to nothing ! Even more foolish than being long on FBU lol.
The "Great white gold rush": here we come :t_up:

[minimoke]

+ 2,015.7% within less than 3 years.

Could I ever have another investment like this in my life?Well done. I'm up 2,065% with my RYM holding. Bored with that - Hoping ATM in 5 - 10 years is tracking well towards that number

[couta1]

I'm looking forward to Snoopy putting out his new revised guidance on A2, Lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

Forbarr revised price target $13 - outperform.

That must be for 10:30 this morning??

Last trade at $12.90.

[flyer]

its $13 now

[minimoke]

That must be for 10:30 this morning??

Last trade at $12.90.
10:24 to be precise

[Sideshow Bob]

10:24 to be precise

Forbar's most accurate call ever! Bahahahahaha

[Oliver Mander]

ATM now officially a $10bn company...share price at $13.
So much for the "end of next week" :t_up:

[JeremyALD]

So much for my top up plan at $10 yesterday.... Shouldn't have been so cheap :p

[Oliver Mander]

So much for my top up plan at $10 yesterday.... Shouldn't have been so cheap :p

Am sure you'll still live Jeremy. Oh its a good time to be a THL/ATM/AIR shareholder...:-)

[minimoke]

Forbar's most accurate call ever! BahahahahahaI think they deserve a celebratory drink - as we know its a long time between drinks for them.

[Ninefingers]

ATM my first ever 20 Bagger!! :t_up:

Awesome, I also reached that milestone today :)

[hardt]

My first stock ever bought on the NZX is a 7 bagger :)

And I have only kept on buying since.

[Beagle]

WOW....Plenty of Kahlua and A2 milk on the beagle menu for supper this evening...

[minimoke]

WOW....Plenty of Kahlua and A2 milk on the beagle menu for supper this evening...We are not talking doggie bowl - its piggy trough time!

[winner69]

ATM returns on my spreadsheet show #DIV/0!

Just joining in the euphoria

[couta1]

I don't care what % of my portfolio A2 becomes over the next few years, I won't be selling a single share, I've learnt my lesson the hard way over the last year.

[Ted2]

I think I'm at a 23+ bagger now, if that means multiple of purchase price. But currently showing +2206% :t_up:

[minimoke]

I don't care what % of my portfolio A2 becomes over the next few years, I won't be selling a single share, I've learnt my lesson the hard way over the last year.Likewise. Thanks to a top up in December as an averaging down punt I ended up with ATM making 24% of my portfolio#2. I am now struggling to think when I have ever made so much (paper) money in a 24 hour period in my whole life.

[Vagabond47]

I don't care what % of my portfolio A2 becomes over the next few years, I won't be selling a single share, I've learnt my lesson the hard way over the last year.

This week would be a good time to take some profit IMO. When something starts to sound to good to be true.. it usually is.

[BigBob]

I bought my first ones at 55c and have been free carried (and some) since $1.85... Just about a 25 bagger for that first buy... ☺️

[whatsup]

Coming off atm and very thin on the buy side , it could get back to my buy quote of $12.65 .

[minimoke]

This week would be a good time to take some profit IMO. When something starts to sound to good to be true.. it usually is.Good advice - when it comes down, it will with a thump. But its not a problem if you take a long term view. This is a time when I need to remember my stop loss strategy and keep this emotion out of the equation.

[couta1]

Good advice - when it comes down, it will with a thump. But its not a problem if you take a long term view. This is a time when I need to remember my stop loss strategy and keep this emotion out of the equation. Normally runs for 3 days before dropping significantly, will it ever go below $10 again failing a black swan event? I doubt it.

[see weed]

I think I'm at a 23+ bagger now, if that means multiple of purchase price. But currently showing +2206% :t_up:
How many bags from 50c? Yeah, am also waiting for the come back soon.

[see weed]

Where Ausi goes we go. Noticed one buyer has 97,000 order in at 12.45:eek2:.

[minimoke]

Where Ausi goes we go. Noticed one buyer has 97,000 order in at 12.45:eek2:.
But current match price is $11.52 or NZD$12.29

[Sideshow Bob]

Where Ausi goes we go. Noticed one buyer has 97,000 order in at 12.45:eek2:.

Definitely true See Weed. That is where the real action is....

[toucan22]

Just got $13.95 for a block of A2 shares on the NZX.

[Sideshow Bob]

But current match price is $11.52 or NZD$12.29

Currently trading at $12.75AUD after hitting a high of $13.15

[Beagle]

So...having reflected on this for over 24 hours now my thinking is rather than irrational exuberance the market is clearly saying the deal with Fonterra the (world's biggest dairy company), is a real game changer. I agree 100%, it really does fundamentally change their long term growth prospects and give tremendous encourage to hold for the long term.
It completely alleviates my one concern with this stock which was about whether there would be enough A2 type cows. Further though, its gives credibility and Fonterra's backing to potentially significant product expansion down the track. A2 type cheeses, butter, yogurt, ice-cream, milk biscuits e.t.c.e.t.c.

[minimoke]

Currently trading at $12.75AUD after hitting a high of $13.15had my finger hovering over the sell button for a moment there

[Sideshow Bob]

had my finger hovering over the sell button for a moment there

Just go for a run MM and pontificate on the joys of A2 milk. That's what I'm about to do!

[Filthy]

fantastic run. starting to look a bit toppy now. needs a healthy pullback imo