ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Agree Beagle this was a very interesting development in the release. And as you friend Ogg says on a different thread, ATM may be a potential buyer of CVT :-)

Mate its not going to happen, CEO said in a behind the paywall article on NBR it's an overseas party. There's substantial supply of manuka honey from sources in N.Z. other than through CVT, something some people have their head in the sand about but quite frankly that's their problem :) Quite apart from that ATM management are smart cookies. You don't go wasting shareholders money buying poorly performing companies with management of questionable integrity at 35 times forward earnings multiples, that would be stupid, something ATM management clearly aren't !

[iceman]

Mate its not going to happen, CEO said in a behind the paywall article on NBR it's an overseas party. There substantial supply of manuka honey from sources in N.Z. other than through CVT, something some people have their head in the sand about but quite frankly that's their problem :)

Tongue in cheek mate. Of course they won't nor should they even consider it

[sb9]

Not really sure about the nutritional desiribility of adding sugar (honey) to infant formula. But I'm sure they will have that covered.

I think they mentioned adding manuka honey to just milk powder not to infant formula, if I recollect correctly.

Don't think they would want to add too much more to their existing Infant Formula mix of ingredients.

[Beagle]

Tongue in cheek mate. Of course they won't nor should they even consider it

The fishing was good today, I bit on the bait, should have noticed your smiley at the end eh mate :) Guess I am a little frustrated as a former shareholder of CVT. They could be a really good company if management could get its **** together. I think there's deep systemic issues in that company that they're not disclosing.
I know Forest went to a recent annual meeting and came away unsatisfied with the "answers" he got. Anyway, sorry I am off topic on a tangent...back to talking about sweeter things, ATM infant formula blended with manuka honey, how sweet and full of natural goodness does that sound !!!!!
Its going to sell like hot cakes fresh out of the oven at really premium prices. Further margin expansion for ATM going forward ?

[see weed]

THIS IS A HARD FISH TO CATCH Today and yesterdai. Have just upped my buy order from 11.90 to 12.22:eek2: Maybe better buying tomorrow.

[minimoke]

THIS IS A HARD FISH TO CATCH Today and yesterdai. Have just upped my buy order from 11.90 to 12.22:eek2: Maybe better buying tomorrow.Maybe that train has left the station. Next stop $12.75

[see weed]

Maybe that train has left the station. Next stop $12.75
a2 have a very good shuttle service they send back to pick up late stragglers. They always return but the fare might have gone up a bit.:)

[iceman]

a2 have a very good shuttle service they send back to pick up late stragglers. They always return but the fare might have gone up a bit.:)

LOL. Agree with this. My latest purchase was exactly $12 higher than my first purchase !!

[winner69]

What’s this amateur hour you guys talk about?

I bought some more at open this morning .....does that make me an ‘ amateur’

[minimoke]

a2 have a very good shuttle service they send back to pick up late stragglers. They always return but the fare might have gone up a bit.:)No-one at the $12.75 station so straight on through to 10,000 waiting at $12.80. And efficiently picked up

[Leftfield]

No-one at the $12.75 station so straight on through to 10,000 waiting at $12.80. And efficiently picked up

Nice to see the SP holding well today... trending above the mid $12.50 zone. Maybe the market is anticipating an update soon?

Another factor may be a recent CNBC report quoting a Danone source saying demand for its IF was up MORE than 50% (FY18YTD). How this translates to A2 remains to be seen.

[dabsman]

What’s this amateur hour you guys talk about?

I bought some more at open this morning .....does that make me an ‘ amateur’

Amateur Hours are plus and minus 1 hour from when I buy FYI

[Beagle]

Apparently there was quite a lot of short interest last week. I think they must be starting to cover their positions now as we have a number of events / announcements in the short term that could see them absolutely hammered if they don't.
In my opinion these include the probability / strong probability of
1. A very strong market update late April updating sales for Jan- March and possible annual forecast, (as per last year)
2. 14 May Announcement of MSCI index inclusion leading to some institutions and retail holders positioning themselves, (buying in late May) for the inclusion adjustment process effective date 1 June
3. Index inclusion on 1 June which is the date any index tracking fund that tracks the MSCI must buy in.
4. A further market Update in mid-late June as they did last year

Then we have the annual result to look forward too after that.

Why anyone would want to hold a short position and try and swim against that strong incoming tide of positivity is beyond my comprehension.

[hardt]

Apparently there was quite a lot of short interest last week. I think they must be starting to cover their positions now as we have a number of events / announcements in the short term that could see them absolutely hammered if they don't.
In my opinion these include the probability / strong probability of
1. A very strong market update late April updating sales for Jan- March and possible annual forecast, (as per last year)
2. 14 May Announcement of MSCI index inclusion leading to some institutions and retail holders positioning themselves, (buying in late May) for the inclusion adjustment process effective date 1 June
3. Index inclusion on 1 June which is the date any index tracking fund that tracks the MSCI must buy in.
4. A further market Update in mid-late June as they did last year

Then we have the annual result to look forward too after that.

Why anyone would want to hold a short position and try and swim against that strong incoming tide of positivity is beyond my comprehension.

Shorts got absolutely crushed by the HY+Fonterra deal from 4% of the float down to a low of 0.09% which coincided with the top of around $14.
Without the shorts this never would have reached $14 so quickly... shorts are everything when it comes to a2's event driven rallies and the next legs up.
I sure hope they stay around... we don't want to chase them away now, let them make a little bit of profit on the cool off periods and frantically cover on good news.

9634

[Valuegrowth]

It seems that the market expects faster earnings growth from ATM-NZ than from its peers and also a turnaround in its current ROE. It has an impressive ROE. Those factors may be reason for trading at a very high P/E ratio. According to the P/E ratio it is overvalued but growth players and technical players have become bullish.

Farmers work with animal nutritionists to make sure that their cows are given a healthy and nutritious diet. Milk is full of vitamin A and D, calcium and protein, and is a part of a healthy and balanced diet. Dairy cows require a lot of energy to make delicious and nutritious milk. Cows eat a mixture of grass hay, alfalfa hay, grains as well as corn and grass silage.

Are they readily available in NZ?

According to OECD FAO agricultural outlook,

Future growth in crop production is expected be obtained through higher yields - 90 percent of the increase in maize production is expected to come from increased yields and just 10 percent from area expansion. Global food commodity prices are expected to remain low over the next decade compared to previous peaks. Demand growth in a number of emerging economies is expected to slow down.

India is expected to be the most populous country by 2026. India is projected to account for 42 percent of the increase in global milk production over the coming decade to meet their rising per capita consumption levels for milk.

Agricultural trade is expected to remain more resilient to economic downturns than other sectors.Globally, per capita food demand for cereals is anticipated to be largely flat. Growth only expected in the world’s least developed countries.Additional calories and protein are expected to come mainly from vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products.

Growth in meat and dairy production will be achieved from both larger herds and higher output per animal. Growth in poultry production accounts for almost half of total meat production expansion over the decade, while milk production is expected to increase compared with the previous decade, mainly in India and Pakistan.

Net exports are expected to increase from the Americas, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, while net imports are expected to increase across other Asian and African countries. Prices of agricultural commodities are subject to considerable volatility.

[see weed]

Not many buyers this morning. Am at the head of the queue at the moment:).

[BlackPeter]

Not many buyers this morning. Am at the head of the que at the moment:).

Maybe you are offering too much ;);

[see weed]

Maybe you are offering too much ;);
Something smells fishy around here. Have 3000 to buy, started at 12.51 and every time I move it up 1c somebody else moves theirs up 1c at exactly the same time. So I moved it up 2c, same thing happened. Would it be ASB playing silly bug...s? Is someone at ASB buying ATM and putting their order above ours every time? If this is happening to me, it could be also happening to you:confused:.

[couta1]

Something smells fishy around here. Have 3000 to buy, started at 12.51 and every time I move it up 1c somebody else moves theirs up 1c at exactly the same time. So I moved it up 2c, same thing happened. Would it be ASB playing silly bug...s? Is someone at ASB buying ATM and putting their order above ours every time? If this is happening to me, it could be also happening to you:confused:. This stock is the Game of Thrones, there are a big mix of shakers and movers playing games at any given time.

[see weed]

This stock is the Game of Thrones, there are a big mix of shakers and movers playing games at any given time.
Would say someone at ASB could be doing something? They may be reading this thread, because the order went through at 12.65c a couple of minutes after last comment;).

[Leftfield]

Would say someone at ASB could be doing something? They may be reading this thread, because the order went through at 12.65c a couple of minutes after last comment;).

That's a real concern seaweed. If you suspect some form of manipulation, surely you should ask ASB to comment or report it further?

[gbogo]

Something smells fishy around here. Have 3000 to buy, started at 12.51 and every time I move it up 1c somebody else moves theirs up 1c at exactly the same time. So I moved it up 2c, same thing happened. Would it be ASB playing silly bug...s? Is someone at ASB buying ATM and putting their order above ours every time? If this is happening to me, it could be also happening to you:confused:.

isn't that likely to just be an algo - eg "always be best bid up to $12.70", would trigger such behaviour automatically.. ?

[see weed]

That's a real concern seaweed. If you suspect some form of manipulation, surely you should ask ASB to comment or report it further?
Don't need to. It's already out there, and every body knows now. Should have left it at original price and would of got them 10c cheaper.

[see weed]

isn't that likely to just be an algo - eg "always be best bid up to $12.70", would trigger such behaviour automatically.. ?
Don't know, never heard of algo before.

[see weed]

Not many buyers this morning. Am at the head of the queue at the moment:).
Well learnt a good lesson yesterday. So today have put my order at the bottom of queue.

[minimoke]

Well learnt a good lesson yesterday. So today have put my order at the bottom of queue.The SP is like a flippin yoyo. I'd just pick a point and buy then hold.

[Beagle]

The SP is like a flippin yoyo. I'd just pick a point and buy then hold.

Not sure how some people with an XXXXXXXL holding cope with the yo-yo...day to day emotions must be affected to some modest degree surely ?

[winner69]

Not sure how some people with an XXXXXXXL holding cope with the yo-yo...day to day emotions must be affected to some modest degree surely ?

One reason why they should look at the market prices less often ....only once a week or once a month'

More pleasurable moments that way

[minimoke]

One reason why they should look at the market prices less often ....only once a week or once a month'

More pleasurable moments that way
Its why I couldnt be a trader. Nerves wouldn't be up for it.

[Beagle]

1/8th of my portfolio is the maximum my nerves can stand, was one seventh but the price has come down from the peak. I tried holding a higher allocation and felt uncomfortable so now take solace from the same number of shares in Synlait knowing they'll benefit both from A2's success and from a number of other growth initiatives. It is what it is, some people can handle the stress and good on them and others are better to admit to themselves they're more comfortable hedging their bets with SUM other high growth companies as well and that's okay too.

[gbogo]

I bailed out of my $13.00 purchases this morning. TA says break of $12.00 targets $9.50, being a $2.50 move, equivalent of the move up from $12 - $14.50 and also filling the gap between $9.50 and $10.75.

I withdraw my forces and wait for another day, wounded but still alive.

[JeremyALD]

Yes I'm very overexposed with this holding 25% of my portfolio. Still I see no reason for panic and if it goes back down to $10 on no news it will be the biggest bargain on the nzx

[bohemian]

One way of reducing the anxiety of daily ATM fluctions is to have even bigger holdings in the likes of GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, CSL, THL.NZ.

[Leftfield]

This song from the Boss, say's it all......"Keep your eye on the prize (Hold on)" ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBle58G0dsA

Enjoy!

[couta1]

Yes I'm very overexposed with this holding 25% of my portfolio. Still I see no reason for panic and if it goes back down to $10 on no news it will be the biggest bargain on the nzx HaHa, I must be hyperexposed then, now makes up 50% of my portfolio after selling my GNE at a loss to buy more today(Not keen on the power companies until that review is completed) No one knows where the SP will head, TA is just guesswork, it could go up 50c on Thurs or drop another 50c, all depends on which game players have the numbers. There's something for everyone in this stock, shorters that haven't been incinerated no doubt make money, as do traders and of course those going long with a vision for where this company will be in a few years ,will make the most of all. Any update or positive piece of news will catch out many game players with their pants down, just imagine if a one of those is released on Thurs morning.

[Beagle]

HaHa, I must be hyperexposed then, now makes up 50% of my portfolio after selling my GNE at a loss to buy more today(Not keen on the power companies until that review is completed) No one knows where the SP will head, TA is just guesswork, it could go up 50c on Thurs or drop another 50c, all depends on which game players have the numbers. There's something for everyone in this stock, shorters that haven't been incinerated no doubt make money, as do traders and of course those going long with a vision for where this company will be in a few years ,will make the most of all. Any update or positive piece of news will catch out many game players with their pants down, just imagine if a one of those is released on Thurs morning.

Last year they updated the market on 26 April.

[winner69]

This song from the Boss, say's it all......"Keep your eye on the prize (Hold on)" ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBle58G0dsA

Enjoy!

As a civil rights anthem the prize was equality and freedom .......but in general terms the prize is remembering your goals and what you want to achieve, even though you are going through obstacles and distractions.

Good thought though ...and a good song

[see weed]

HaHa, I must be hyperexposed then, now makes up 50% of my portfolio after selling my GNE at a loss to buy more today(Not keen on the power companies until that review is completed) No one knows where the SP will head, TA is just guesswork, it could go up 50c on Thurs or drop another 50c, all depends on which game players have the numbers. There's something for everyone in this stock, shorters that haven't been incinerated no doubt make money, as do traders and of course those going long with a vision for where this company will be in a few years ,will make the most of all. Any update or positive piece of news will catch out many game players with their pants down, just imagine if a one of those is released on Thurs morning.
66% over here and growing. Last month it was only about 25%.
Apart from my long term holding of ATM, have bought and sold the trading side 42 times last financial year.

[Beagle]

I am surprised you guys are taking such big positions.

[couta1]

I am surprised you guys are taking such big positions. You shouldn't be, I'm feeling well diversified with my 3 stock portfolio, 50% divvy(HLG+SPK) plus 50% growth(ATM) I like sticking to the KISS principal whenever possible.

[Valuegrowth]

http://teroluoma.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/benjamin-graham-intelligent-investor.html

I quoted following information from the above link.

A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock.

"Put all your eggs into one basket and then watch that basket" proclaimed Andrew Carnegie a century ago. "Do not scatter your shot. ...The great successes of life are made by concentration." As Graham points out, "the really big fortunes from common stock" have been made by people whp packed all their money into one investment they knew supremely well. Nearly all the richest people in America trace their wealth to a concentrated investment in a single industry or even a single company (Bill Gates, Sam Walton, Rockefellers...). The Forbes 400 list has been dominated by undiversified fortunes since it was first compiled in 1982. However, almost no small fortunes have been made this way - and not many big fortunes have been kept this way. What Carnegie neglected to mention is that concentration also makes of the great failures of life.

[BlackPeter]

http://teroluoma.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/benjamin-graham-intelligent-investor.html

I quoted following information from the above link.

A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock.

"Put all your eggs into one basket and then watch that basket" proclaimed Andrew Carnegie a century ago. "Do not scatter your shot. ...The great successes of life are made by concentration." As Graham points out, "the really big fortunes from common stock" have been made by people whp packed all their money into one investment they knew supremely well. Nearly all the richest people in America trace their wealth to a concentrated investment in a single industry or even a single company (Bill Gates, Sam Walton, Rockefellers...). The Forbes 400 list has been dominated by undiversified fortunes since it was first compiled in 1982. However, almost no small fortunes have been made this way - and not many big fortunes have been kept this way. What Carnegie neglected to mention is that concentration also makes of the great failures of life.

Sure - some people play roulette by putting all their chips onto one number and some people make big money by putting all eggs into one investment basket. Some (actually quite a number of) people survive as well by driving a car without buckling up!

The story however is not complete as long as you don't talk as well about all the people who put all their money into one basket and lost ... and the people who just died because they didn't buckle up. Nobody sings about them.

Nobody has all information about one company and its future - i.e. making money by putting all eggs into one basket is not clever, it is just lucky.

The point of diversification is not to get quick rich ... but it is to make money without taking undue risks, and to still have some money left if one of your (skillfully chosen) investments go pear shaped due to unforeseen circumstances ....

[couta1]

Sure - some people play roulette by putting all their chips onto one number and some people make big money by putting all eggs into one investment basket. Some (actually quite a number of) people survive as well by driving a car without buckling up!

The story however is not complete as long as you don't talk as well about all the people who put all their money into one basket and lost ... and the people who just died because they didn't buckle up. Nobody sings about them.

Nobody has all information about one company and its future - i.e. making money by putting all eggs into one basket is not clever, it is just lucky.

The point of diversification is not to get quick rich ... but it is to make money without taking undue risks, and to still have some money left if one of your (skillfully chosen) investments go pear shaped due to unforeseen circumstances .... There's so much about this post I disagree with, I don't no where to start, so I won't. PS-The biggest mistakes I have made is not holding onto my XXOS baskets for longer in a few instances.

[silu]

http://teroluoma.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/benjamin-graham-intelligent-investor.html

I quoted following information from the above link.

A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock.

"Put all your eggs into one basket and then watch that basket" proclaimed Andrew Carnegie a century ago. "Do not scatter your shot. ...The great successes of life are made by concentration." As Graham points out, "the really big fortunes from common stock" have been made by people whp packed all their money into one investment they knew supremely well. Nearly all the richest people in America trace their wealth to a concentrated investment in a single industry or even a single company (Bill Gates, Sam Walton, Rockefellers...). The Forbes 400 list has been dominated by undiversified fortunes since it was first compiled in 1982. However, almost no small fortunes have been made this way - and not many big fortunes have been kept this way. What Carnegie neglected to mention is that concentration also makes of the great failures of life.

I found that I sleep better being a bit p*ssed off about lost opportunities than worrying about a non-diversified portfolio. If age has shown me something is that I can't take anything for granted. I possibly can't foresee major macro events that severely could affect my investments or that maybe a company that has promised so much has suddenly stopped firing. I might not get rich with my current strategy but then all I want to be is comfortable.

[BlackPeter]

There's so much about this post I disagree with, I don't no where to start, so I won't. PS-The biggest mistakes I have made is not holding onto my XXOS baskets for longer in a few instances.

Couta, your personal experience is just one data point in a sea of data. Great you've been lucky so far by not diversifying, but does this mean this strategy will work for everybody else as well?

Only people who are able to see the future should put all their money on one card ...

Are you sure you are able to see the future with 20/20 foresight?

I know only about one who can ... and we are not even sure about her ;);

[see weed]

I am surprised you guys are taking such big positions.
see weed reporting from the Black Beagle Café. Last month collected divs on about 14 or so companies. This month only have 2 companies, next month who knows, but we all still in the same boat waiting for ATM next update, then up up and away to $15, as Beagle says today was last years update date, so not long now:t_up:.

[Nasi Goreng]

How many crazy people out there have loaded up on property as their number 1 investment. They have no shares, just 1, 2 or 3 investment properties. These people are not diversified yet most people would think, nice one, you can't go wrong there...

The way I see it, if someone wants to go load up on a particular sector that they like the look of and make that 50, 60 or 100% of their portfolio, then they are not necessarily following the rules of diversification but they are backing themselves, their research and going for it.

It is high risk and the high rewards and potential losses reflect that. Also, most people who buy shares do so with their own money, so in my opinion this is way less risky than someone buying a rental property at todays prices and borrowing $800k.

[Beagle]

“Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land” Ecclesiastes 11:2 (NIV)

Predicting the future is extremely difficult. A wise man follows time honored biblical principle's because it is prudent to hedge one's investments and diversify risk.

This company looks very good but it is trading a four times the share price of just on one year ago. (I have it recorded at $2.99 in last years balance sheet as at 31 March 2017).

[couta1]

“Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land” Ecclesiastes 11:2 (NIV)

Predicting the future is extremely difficult. A wise man follows time honored biblical principle's because it is prudent to hedge one's investments and diversify risk.

This company looks very good but it is trading a four times the share price of just on one year ago. (I have it recorded at $2.99 in last years balance sheet as at 31 March 2017). Seven or eight ventures mate, not necessarily different stocks.See you at $20 a year from now.

[winner69]

Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’

[winner69]

Do any of you guys calculate the ‘efficient frontier’ to optimise your portfolio to get the maximum return obtainable for your acceptable risk

Or is just seat of the pants stuff or just gut feel and then hope like hell it’ll all be OK

[mfd]

Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’

Depends on your goals and requirements, surely? If nearing retirement or mostly aiming to maintain wealth then diversifying would help, if you're younger and willing to take a risk to strike it big then maybe not.

[Beagle]

Do any of you guys calculate the ‘efficient frontier’ to optimise your portfolio to get the maximum return obtainable for your acceptable risk

Or is just seat of the pants stuff or just gut feel and then hope like hell it’ll all be OK

Doubt many have even heard of the efficient frontier or understand the efficient market hypothesis and risk adjusted optimum portfolio allocation mate.
I use gut feel and I have learned from past experience never to be so sure of the future as to place too big a bet on any particular company. Sure some of the wealthiest investors in the world got rich by having a very concentrated investment approach and you can read all about them but the funny thing is you never hear of the millions who took an aggressive approach to investment and lost their shirt do you ?

Some people can afford to take big risks, (some even thrive on the adrenalin rush of it), and can live with the outcome of a potential major loss to their portfolio either because they have more than they need already or because they have sufficient time to recover their portfolio before retirement...for the rest of us I think a more balanced approach makes more common sense.

Each to their own though and good luck to all holders large and small.

[steveb]

I wonder if people approaching retirement don't worry to much about recovering losses before they retire,as they have kiwisaver to fall back on.

[BlackPeter]

Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’

And so are all of its poorest people :p

[macduffy]

I wonder if people approaching retirement don't worry to much about recovering losses before they retire,as they have kiwisaver to fall back on.

I doubt that Kiwisaver has been around long enough to offer a lot to fall back on. NZ Super would pay a few bills but not much beyond the basics.

Moral of the story: Don't lose capital!

;)

[Ted2]

Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’

Yep I reckon diversification is just averaging down your return. And don't quote Warren Buffett - he only diversifies into good stocks!! :D :D :D

[tipsy]

If only I'd been all in on A2, would've been a nice, early retirement.

[couta1]

If only I'd been all in on A2, would've been a nice, early retirement. Yep, just like XRO, which is back trading at around $40 NZ, think of all the balsy people who bought that at around $1 and held.

[Valuegrowth]

I have found that even fund managers, great traders and intelligent investors make big mistakes and losses. Either they sell too early and buy too late. They also choose wrong type of investment or trading. There are investors they sell stocks with frustration after keeping for a long time. Then they miss the biggest gain in their investment. Too much trading also could lead to poor results. Putting all eggs in one basket is very risky. Exception is we find a multibagger company. Successful investors have succeeded by putting their money in investment that they knew supremely well.

[see weed]

Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’
I tend to swing from month to month from diversification to undiversified, it has worked for me and portfolio is up about 200% in last 18 months....until the next crash. Try and have cash before crash.

[silu]

Back to A2 Milk shall we? A2 Milk was discussed on Fox Business Network:
https://youtu.be/V30tqYBA2jA

[couta1]

Back to A2 Milk shall we? A2 Milk was discussed on Fox Business Network:
https://youtu.be/V30tqYBA2jA A very poor discussion covered in US protectionism, those mouthy, lacking knowledge woman, really got on my goat. Free advertising though.

[silu]

I'm happy that A2 Milk even got discussed. It's the soccer mum and yoga practitioners on the Twin Coasts that A2 Milk has to win over for a decent market share ;)

[winner69]

A2 have a good PR / investor relations in the US. Keeps getting exposure for them - that’s good

But might be touting the company to potential suitors .....maybe, just maybe, part of the big plan.

Diversification discussion belongs somewhere else but heck it’s cool saying you’re overweight ATM

[gbogo]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/controversial-milk-shakes-big-dairy-120000234.html?.tsrc=applewf

nothing new but more coverage.

[allfromacell]

I read on another forum that the Countdown Auckland CBD branch is now selling A2's platinum infant formula and checked this afternoon at the Mt Eden supermarket and they're also stocking it.

It looks like they've now got enough inventory and perhaps finally able to meet the market demand in other markets?

[Investor]

It's the soccer mum and yoga practitioners on the Twin Coasts that A2 Milk has to win over for a decent market share ;)

That shouldn't be too challenging.

[Leftfield]

Meanwhile in China, according to this article posted via Hot Copper, ATM is now the leading NZ brand in China - ahead of Anchor. An amazing success if true.....

9650

Patiently waiting the next ATM trading update.

[see weed]

Just picked some up at 11.74. How low can you go:eek2:.

[BlackPeter]

Just picked some up at 11.74. How low can you go:eek2:.

MA100 is on $10.85; Wouldn't be too alarmed if it bounces somewhere around the $11 mark and the MA100;

Discl: holding ... but might buy more ;);

[sb9]

Just picked some up at 11.74. How low can you go:eek2:.

Agree, its getting close bottoming out and also bit oversold by now. Must be getting ready for a bounce higher soon.

[Beagle]

An MSCI bounce soon enough ;)

[BlackPeter]

Agree, its getting close bottoming out and also bit oversold by now. Must be getting ready for a bounce higher soon.


An MSCI bounce soon enough ;)

Don't talk it up, guys .... wouldn't mind to buy some more a bit cheaper ;);

[minimoke]

Don't talk it up, guys .... wouldn't mind to buy some more a bit cheaper ;);
Could finish the day above $12.00 - might have missed your chance!

[BlackPeter]

Could finish the day above $12.00 - might have missed your chance!

you win some, you lose some ...

[JeremyALD]

Nice to finally have a positive day!

[Leftfield]

A2 sourced milk a key reason for the success of this new ice-cream initiative. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/103434563/nelson-ice-cream-company-with-global-aspirations-thanks-community)

Can't help thinking this success can only be good for ATM.

[Beagle]

A2 sourced milk a key reason for the success of this new ice-cream initiative. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/103434563/nelson-ice-cream-company-with-global-aspirations-thanks-community)

Can't help thinking this success can only be good for ATM.

Good stuff... I hope ATM take them over and build internationally deliverable scale really quickly.

[Leftfield]

Good stuff... I hope ATM take them over and build internationally deliverable scale really quickly.

A JV and a shareholding/investment would be interesting :cool:

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder how they can make the claim, or prove that all of the milk is A2? Can someone with more knowledge of A2's IP enlighten me please?

[Leftfield]

I wonder how they can make the claim, or prove that all of the milk is A2? Can someone with more knowledge of A2's IP enlighten me please?

it is relatively easy for Appleby Farms to prove their claim and I think you will find they are being v careful and conservative about their A2 heritage at this stage. To understand more about the 'technology' and IP, I suggest you read some of the posts by Prof Keith Woodford. (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/)

[Beagle]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/two-child-policy-a-tailwind-for-a2-milk

[RTM]

it is relatively easy for Appleby Farms to prove their claim and I think you will find they are being v careful and conservative about their A2 heritage at this stage. To understand more about the 'technology' and IP, I suggest you read some of the posts by Prof Keith Woodford. (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/)

Thanks LeftField. Appreciate the link. I missed out on ATM but have Synlait.

[Sideshow Bob]

it is relatively easy for Appleby Farms to prove their claim and I think you will find they are being v careful and conservative about their A2 heritage at this stage. To understand more about the 'technology' and IP, I suggest you read some of the posts by Prof Keith Woodford. (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/)

Thanks LF.

[winner69]

Good post yesterday about how outrageously overvalued ATM is at the moment ....buts it has disappeared ...hope a voluntary deletion by the poster

One point the poster made was that ATM is trading at 9 times sales ( multiples like SaaS companies get rewarded with)

I was going to reply that when sales double in the next year it will be down to 4.5 times sales ....as long as the share price stays up around the $12 mark.

[couta1]

Good post yesterday about how outrageously overvalued ATM is at the moment ....buts it has disappeared ...hope a voluntary deletion by the poster

One point the poster made was that ATM is trading at 9 times sales ( multiples like SaaS companies get rewarded with)

I was going to reply that when sales double in the next year it will be down to 4.5 times sales ....as long as the share price stays up around the $12 mark.It's all about massive potential, so it's currently undervalued. SP $20 by this time next year.

[James108]

Good post yesterday about how outrageously overvalued ATM is at the moment ....buts it has disappeared ...hope a voluntary deletion by the poster

One point the poster made was that ATM is trading at 9 times sales ( multiples like SaaS companies get rewarded with)

I was going to reply that when sales double in the next year it will be down to 4.5 times sales ....as long as the share price stays up around the $12 mark.

Could this be because ATM have similarly low capital requirements, similarly high margins and actually make money?

[Sideshow Bob]

The last jump (from $9 to $12-$13) was in response to continued outperformance/growth, but also the JV with Fonterra and what that could do for sales but most importantly volumes and supply going forward.

Even the reported PE of 60 will come down to 45 if they repeated their last 6 months - which they clearly are going to do better. I think the Hungry Hound mentioned he expected PE to be down around 30-35 by the next HY.

I'm not worried about share price to sales, it is what comes out the bottom line.

I thought you would also love the cashflow statement W69?

[Beagle]

Forward thinking investors are looking at the 2019 PE already which by my estimates in the mid 20's gives excellent prospects for ongoing SP outperformance in the year ahead as the company continues to grow strongly and remains with outstanding long term growth prospects.

MSCI inclusion and the effect of that process on 1 June is less than a month away now...

[silu]

There was a segment on "Which milk is the best for you" on Australia's Sunrise programme: https://au.news.yahoo.com/milk-best-233451804.html

[JeremyALD]

I think the SP has found a fair and comfortable spot until the next update. Been interesting watching SML catch up

[Beagle]

I think the SP has found a fair and comfortable spot until the next update. Been interesting watching SML catch up

Interesting and rewarding. Disc: I now own the same number of shares in each. Classic bob each way bet...might even get the quinella :)

[see weed]

Interesting and rewarding. Disc: I now own the same number of shares in each. Classic bob each way bet...might even get the quinella :)
Have bought 9 more parcels in last 2 weeks. What do you think, a bit of trading update leak, with sp going up 42c on no news? ;)

[Beagle]

Have bought 9 more parcels in last 2 weeks. What do you think, a bit of trading update leak, with sp going up 42c on no news? ;)

Probably just got a bit oversold down at around $12 and once we saw upside momentum building today there was probably some short covering going on.
(Watch for a higher exchange rate adjusted price on the ASX to test the validity of my short covering theory at 6.00 p.m.).

[Pavan Sharma]

a2 milk has been surprisingly quiet, what are you thoughts on them doubling profits in their next earnings announcement, because the PE ratio demands that kinda growth.

[JeremyALD]

a2 milk has been surprisingly quiet, what are you thoughts on them doubling profits in their next earnings announcement, because the PE ratio demands that kinda growth.

Not really. Im expecting 200m NPAT for the full year. Given their increased marketing spend, global expansion and large reserve of cash a forward PE of 45 seems very reasonable. If ATM again surprise with let's say 220 NPAT + then you could be looking at a PE under 40.

[hardt]

Not really. Im expecting 200m NPAT for the full year. Given their increased marketing spend, global expansion and large reserve of cash a forward PE of 45 seems very reasonable. If ATM again surprise with let's say 220 NPAT + then you could be looking at a PE under 40.

Maybe he means doubling of last years profit of ~90m?... which has probably already happened.

[Valuegrowth]

Despite categorizing this stock as an overvalued stock after stellar run, still it is maintaining its uptrend. Who thought this will trade PE ratio over 60. In my opinion it seems mainly growth players are having some faith on this stock. Could there be some correction on the way?

I quoted from the following link.

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/food-beverage-tobacco/nzx-atm/a2-milk-shares/news/should-you-buy-the-a2-milk-company-limited-nzeatm-at-9-05/

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-

(http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-US&version=RET&cur=&test=QuoteiFrame&e=eyJlbmMiOiJBMTI4R0NNIiwiYWxnIjoiUlNBLU9BRVAifQ.K 6VyXYQwnh3LyYqzXebFBaadmcEF1u_5GT1LaimCIQCtT7xojW9 Y-gH_3hjBc5xd7YEcrEFwRh1y_FRudrL-u2HLIYs9gjx-XOZsy2AK1dYXBYCuASzi4zMDAc5IxQJqZYVYowN6yIlvG7Z89j EeaAjhXZOYeUGoQBegMAATgtI.DwWK3ykFPrWmYpaH.EkjJN_T bAQ1ZhycoZPx4oquEPu7372KvjbkTi0P6XezxNQrtOhOWxCstD i2C070ApImi7zDOFa73opNiKYBaklZ0zKf-a9T1aPf_RksX-_8Ck3--chiL846RVchieaRrjLvDfWh8jhQmsNKf1F3uvn9alNg-XV7oRiutvUQPYkzxCmmvxitO_CU1QU_I5F-1FV841E802RJ79zXsV8VzXHEZi5rizNwrBr_-VSM.Q-9cTVFGURKnCeYm4alivA)https://milfordasset.com/insights/focused-a2-shows-done-whos-next

[couta1]

Despite categorizing this stock as an overvalued stock after stellar run, still it is maintaining its uptrend. Who thought this will trade PE ratio over 60. In my opinion it seems mainly growth players are having some faith on this stock. Could there be some correction on the way?

I quoted from the following link.

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/food-beverage-tobacco/nzx-atm/a2-milk-shares/news/should-you-buy-the-a2-milk-company-limited-nzeatm-at-9-05/

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-

(http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-US&version=RET&cur=&test=QuoteiFrame&e=eyJlbmMiOiJBMTI4R0NNIiwiYWxnIjoiUlNBLU9BRVAifQ.K 6VyXYQwnh3LyYqzXebFBaadmcEF1u_5GT1LaimCIQCtT7xojW9 Y-gH_3hjBc5xd7YEcrEFwRh1y_FRudrL-u2HLIYs9gjx-XOZsy2AK1dYXBYCuASzi4zMDAc5IxQJqZYVYowN6yIlvG7Z89j EeaAjhXZOYeUGoQBegMAATgtI.DwWK3ykFPrWmYpaH.EkjJN_T bAQ1ZhycoZPx4oquEPu7372KvjbkTi0P6XezxNQrtOhOWxCstD i2C070ApImi7zDOFa73opNiKYBaklZ0zKf-a9T1aPf_RksX-_8Ck3--chiL846RVchieaRrjLvDfWh8jhQmsNKf1F3uvn9alNg-XV7oRiutvUQPYkzxCmmvxitO_CU1QU_I5F-1FV841E802RJ79zXsV8VzXHEZi5rizNwrBr_-VSM.Q-9cTVFGURKnCeYm4alivA)https://milfordasset.com/insights/focused-a2-shows-done-whos-next Simply Wall St and Morningstar are about as accurate as taking advice from your local garden gnome.

[Baa_Baa]

Simply Wall St and Morningstar are about as accurate as taking advice from your local garden gnome.

Lol, classic quote, thanks. My garden gnome says ATM is a good bet for the long term but it moved so far so fast it's over-extended and (like everything) vulnerable to macro swings, while currently in a declined from its top's sideways channel, so best to be 'well positioned' and alert to influences. Nimble even, if it comes to it.

[tipsy]

Despite categorizing this stock as an overvalued stock after stellar run, still it is maintaining its uptrend. Who thought this will trade PE ratio over 60. In my opinion it seems mainly growth players are having some faith on this stock. Could there be some correction on the way?

I quoted from the following link.

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/food-beverage-tobacco/nzx-atm/a2-milk-shares/news/should-you-buy-the-a2-milk-company-limited-nzeatm-at-9-05/

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-

(http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XASX:A2M&region=aus&culture=en-US&version=RET&cur=&test=QuoteiFrame&e=eyJlbmMiOiJBMTI4R0NNIiwiYWxnIjoiUlNBLU9BRVAifQ.K 6VyXYQwnh3LyYqzXebFBaadmcEF1u_5GT1LaimCIQCtT7xojW9 Y-gH_3hjBc5xd7YEcrEFwRh1y_FRudrL-u2HLIYs9gjx-XOZsy2AK1dYXBYCuASzi4zMDAc5IxQJqZYVYowN6yIlvG7Z89j EeaAjhXZOYeUGoQBegMAATgtI.DwWK3ykFPrWmYpaH.EkjJN_T bAQ1ZhycoZPx4oquEPu7372KvjbkTi0P6XezxNQrtOhOWxCstD i2C070ApImi7zDOFa73opNiKYBaklZ0zKf-a9T1aPf_RksX-_8Ck3--chiL846RVchieaRrjLvDfWh8jhQmsNKf1F3uvn9alNg-XV7oRiutvUQPYkzxCmmvxitO_CU1QU_I5F-1FV841E802RJ79zXsV8VzXHEZi5rizNwrBr_-VSM.Q-9cTVFGURKnCeYm4alivA)https://milfordasset.com/insights/focused-a2-shows-done-whos-next


Successful companies are all about strategy and execution and a2 has excelled at these.

Can't help but be impressed with their Chinese execution and strategy, for such an important market. Combine this with the Chinese love of products with any perceived health benefits, their marketing, brand positioning and distribution are absolutely smashing it.

[Sideshow Bob]

Simply Wall St and Morningstar are about as accurate as taking advice from your local garden gnome.

That is just being unkind to garden gnomes!

[JeremyALD]

Lol at some of the price targets. It amuses me how people think this should be on a PE of 20 or something. How many companies growing as rapidly as a2 have ZERO debt and a whole lot of cash. A2 is huge in Australia and probably near it's peak there, but in terms of global expansion its bearly even started! There are still massive opportunities in China USA UK and over the world and if any of those markets come close to matching Australia in terms of market share and presence then you'll be onto a winner. If they succeed in two of more of those markets I can you what, $12 a share will seem like a bargain. I also think Fonterra opens up new horizons and opportunity, and Fonterra will be determined to make it succeed after their poor performance in recent years.

Just as an examle revenue for ANZ was 300m in half year and China was 114m. People are acting like China is a huge risk, to me it seems more like a huge opportunity. They could easily produce more revenue there than AU in future if things continue at this rate.

Dyor

[silu]

It's a slow Friday for me so does anyone else think that we will crack the 1 billion revenue figure for FY18? Should be easy with the South Korea expansion right?

[Sideshow Bob]

It's a slow Friday for me so does anyone else think that we will crack the 1 billion revenue figure for FY18? Should be easy with the South Korea expansion right?

South Korea only just announced so will take a little time - Fonterra supply I feel will be the big push to get it over $1b.

If they had Kim Jong In drinking it, then I'd be really impressed!

Meanwhile, hello again 13 dolleros! :cool:

[winner69]

It's a slow Friday for me so does anyone else think that we will crack the 1 billion revenue figure for FY18? Should be easy with the South Korea expansion right?

Exponential growth continues = $1 billion
Trend growth continues = ~$900m
Stuff fairy tale are made of growth = $1.1 billion

[sb9]

It's a slow Friday for me so does anyone else think that we will crack the 1 billion revenue figure for FY18? Should be easy with the South Korea expansion right?

I'll be very very surprised if they don't cross $1B revenue for current FY.

[minimoke]

Meanwhile, hello again 13 dolleros! :cool:Wheres Beagle - got me a supply of Canterbury Creme!

[Beagle]

Wheres Beagle - got me a supply of Canterbury Creme!

Good on ya mate. Its nice to see it back above $13, might have a couple tonight, it's been a while between drinks.

They'll crack $1 billion turnover easily this year and I think second half profit will really surprise to the upside.

Had a good laugh over the garden gnome comment, thanks Couta1 :)

[winner69]

When is MSCI thing happening

Need something to get back over 14 bucks heading towards 15 bucks

Phenomenal performed already priced in I fear so these external factors to give the share price a decent bump.

Been a bit slack the last 2 months or so hasn’t it.

[Beagle]

When is MSCI thing happening

Need something to get back over 14 bucks heading towards 15 bucks

Phenomenal performed already priced in I fear so these external factors to give the share price a decent bump.

Been a bit slack the last 2 months or so hasn’t it.

14 May announcement, takes effect 1 June.

[winner69]

14 May announcement, takes effect 1 June.

Rumour/speculation or a given

How much of a boost will it give the share price?

[couta1]

Rumour/speculation or a given

How much of a boost will it give the share price? Almost certain IMO, NZ's biggest company will have to take the place of MCY, index funds will have to buy in and the other companies will have to be rebalanced, ie sold down. SP will increase after the announcement, but race day will be June 1st.

[Beagle]

Rumour/speculation or a given

How much of a boost will it give the share price?
MSCI Index inclusion is a given in my opinion. Its hard to answer the latter question but 5 - 20% is my best guess.
I'm not pulling that 20% out of thin air. Fact is CVT and PPH both went up ~ 20% when they went into the NZX50 so index inclusion can have a serious effect on the SP.
Also with ATM being NZ's biggest company I would expect a large percentage allocation in the MSCI so we could see really substantial buying.
A new all time high wouldn't surprise me on 1 June.
I also think a lot of weak hands sold in the recent high volatility so we're down to the committed holders now :)
That said this index change has had a very fulsome discussion in the media and on here and one wonders if some of the potential gain isn't already in the SP.

[winner69]

Almost certain IMO, NZ's biggest company will have to take the place of MCY, index funds will have to buy in and the other companies will have to be rebalanced, ie sold down. SP will increase after the announcement, but race day will be June 1st.

So race day share price at least $14 and if I was as bullish/exhuberent as sb9 pretty close to $15

Sounds cool

[RupertBear]

MSCI Index inclusion is a given in my opinion. Its hard to answer the latter question but 5 - 20% is my best guess.
I'm not pulling that 20% out of thin air. Fact is CVT and PPH both went up ~ 20% when they went into the NZX50 so index inclusion can have a serious effect on the SP.
Also with ATM being NZ's biggest company I would expect a large percentage allocation in the MSCI so we could see really substantial buying.
A new all time high wouldn't surprise me on 1 June.
I also think a lot of weak hands sold in the recent high volatility so we're down to the committed holders now :)

Hmm that will create a dilemma, whether to sell if an all time high is reached, or continue to hold what is a stellar stock for the long haul. Given the high volatility of this stock it will be tempting to sell and buy back when the price drops....assuming it will! Hmmm

[Beagle]

Hmm that will create a dilemma, whether to sell if an all time high is reached, or continue to hold what is a stellar stock for the long haul. Given the high volatility of this stock it will be tempting to sell and buy back when the price drops....assuming it will! Hmmm

The danger if you sell is the company issuing a sales update later in June, (keep in mind their continuous disclosure requirements) and then you're snookered.

[forest]

Hmm that will create a dilemma, whether to sell if an all time high is reached, or continue to hold what is a stellar stock for the long haul. Given the high volatility of this stock it will be tempting to sell and buy back when the price drops....assuming it will! Hmmm

How would you feel if you out of ATM shares and you read a future announcements from Nestle, something like;

Nestle has secured a mayor new contract to produce a number of products for the A2 milk company in NZ. The board of Nestle is very pleased with entering into this new relationship and we expect this will help us with our growth in the coming years.

Maybe unlikely but who would have thought Fonterra would be a manufacturer for ATM a year ago?

[RupertBear]

The danger if you sell is the company issuing a sales update later in June, (keep in mind their continuous disclosure requirements) and then you're snookered.

I have been snookered before selling a few at $6 :scared: what was I thinking! Think I will hold onto what I have and maybe add to them on any weakness :cool:

[Leftfield]

I have been snookered before selling a few at $6 :scared: what was I thinking! Think I will hold onto what I have and maybe add to them on any weakness :cool:

RB - It's highly likely you've just missed the last 'weakness' for awhile.

Anyhow, I struggle to see your problem, if you have still got some ATM at below $6.00 (good on you, and yes, hold on to them) but doubling up at today's prices means your average holding price still would be around $9.00 (or less.) Isn't that a pretty good discount on today's price - with minimum downside risk?

Just my thoughts on a lazy grey saturday and feel free to ignore!! ;)

[RupertBear]

RB - It's highly likely you've just missed the last 'weakness' for awhile.

Anyhow, I struggle to see your problem, if you have still got some ATM at below $6.00 (good on you, and yes, hold on to them) but doubling up at today's prices means your average holding price still would be around $9.00 (or less.) Isn't that a pretty good discount on today's price - with minimum downside risk?

Just my thoughts on a lazy grey saturday and feel free to ignore!! ;)

Thanks Left field you are spot on :)

[winner69]

This MCSI thing gives it heaps more exposure eh.


Jeez Xero leaves joins ASX100 and gets 50% more analyst coverage .........and more and more punters / Instos buy and share price is up 27% in just over three months

Maybe ATM will see 30% gain and ver next few months

Share price at $17 odd sounds good

Bring it on

[Beagle]

This MCSI thing gives it heaps more exposure eh.


Jeez Xero leaves joins ASX100 and gets 50% more analyst coverage .........and more and more punters / Instos buy and share price is up 27% in just over three months

Maybe ATM will see 30% gain and ver next few months

Share price at $17 odd sounds good

Bring it on

Amazing performance for XRO especially considering they're not even making money yet ! This was as high as ~ $14.60 in February 2018 and I for one would not be surprised to see that surpassed.

[Sideshow Bob]

Would insto's try to preempt this and start buying early??? I guess it would depend on their rules?

Or is just ST's/wider market trying to preempt inclusion, after running up about $1 in the last week??

[winner69]

Amazing performance for XRO especially considering they're not even making money yet ! This was as high as ~ $14.60 in February 2018 and I for one would not be surprised to see that surpassed.

Will go much higher than $14.60 ....jeez thats only about 10% away ....and there hasn't been any announcement yet .....or buying ftom instos which will be later in the month

[winner69]

Would insto's try to preempt this and start buying early??? I guess it would depend on their rules?

Or is just ST's/wider market trying to preempt inclusion, after running up about $1 in the last week??

If it happens ...and seeing June 1st is the date I doubt that index trackers are buying now

[Beagle]

There's been fairly widespread acknowledgement in the NBR that inclusion is the index is highly likely so I think some of the effect has already been priced in. How much ? Who could possibly say with any accuracy ? My speculative thoughts.

Smart money is already buying in. The really smart money bought at around $12.
Some institutions will buy in after the official announcement of inclusion due on 14 May assuming it happens and before the actual date of effect on 1 June.
This isn't a case of ATM simply displacing the lowest constituent of the N.Z. stocks presently included in that index. This in my opinion is probably a case of ATM being N.Z. largest company becoming the largest constituent of the stocks in the NZX that are included in the MSCI so all other stocks presently included will get their allocations rerated down as well as the lowest exiting the MSCI.

Because of the size of the allocation in the MSCI I think we will probably see really heavy buying in the match process in the final 15 minutes of trade on 1 June.
The extent to which N.Z. institutions take advantage of that and lighten their holding is unknown but I remain of the view that this index prospect is an attractive supporting factor between now and 1 June and the company is also performing and growing very strongly so its not like you're placing a bet on a weak position is it !

Disc: My #1 listed position and I will probably add a bit more as funds allow between now and 31 May.
Disclaimer: Very little about the future is absolutely certain so don't bag me if none of the above happens...DYOR.

[sb9]

So race day share price at least $14 and if I was as bullish/exhuberent as sb9 pretty close to $15

Sounds cool

Yes if all going according to plan and if they surpass $1 bln revenue for FY18 with the help of increased supply from Synlait my target price for end of Dec is roughly around $18....pls DYOR.

[Beagle]

Came close to topping up this morning at $13.20...really close, couldn't bring myself to do it with the SP up over a dollar in the last week.
Back to being a possum in the headlights and watching this roller coaster carefully...

[Ggcc]

Came close to topping up this morning at $13.20...really close, couldn't bring myself to do it with the SP up over a dollar in the last week.
Back to being a possum in the headlights and watching this roller coaster carefully...
Just watching from the sidelines here, but find it difficult not to purchase if the price drops further

[couta1]

Came close to topping up this morning at $13.20...really close, couldn't bring myself to do it with the SP up over a dollar in the last week.
Back to being a possum in the headlights and watching this roller coaster carefully... No wonder it's got a 5 star trader rating, often has a 50-60c daily spread from high to low, a great all round stock with something for everyone.

[Sideshow Bob]

No wonder it's got a 5 star trader rating, often has a 50-60c daily spread from high to low, a great all round stock with something for everyone.

As long as you can stomach the rollercoaster (or bought approx. 1 year ago or before!)

[RupertBear]

Just watching from the sidelines here, but find it difficult not to purchase if the price drops further

I tried but I couldnt resist and got some at $12.75 ;)

[Ggcc]

I tried but I couldnt resist and got some at $12.75 ;)
I’m still not in but was almost thinking about it at $12.72. On second thought I have plenty of these and am looking for something with dividends as I need an income haha

[minimoke]

In today's announcement. I like the sound of clinical and commercial science!

[Nasi Goreng]

Still 3 months away from annual results. No trading update yet from A2 where last year they provided updates on 26th April and 16th June. Wondering how much is built into share price that A2 smash the forecasted numbers for this half. If they do, expect the share price to continue upward, if its inline, would you expect the share price to get hammered?

Disc: not holding.

[NZSilver]

Topped up after midday at 12.75. Good momentum at the moment + msci announcement, I have a $14.20 target. Expecting rev to be around the $950 mil mark but if we go over $1 bil for the fy18 a2 milk will be $18-20. And to be honest I think there is a good chance we may go over 1bil. No trading updates in April this year but last year they had said they expected a weaker 2nd half 17 year and have given guidance accordingly. 2nd half 17 was much better than expected so they legally had to give trading updates if there was 10% change. Not the case this year so we could be surprised!

[Beagle]

Harbour still very positive, one of their largest holdings.
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/the-state-of-infant-milk-in-china/

For those who are time poor here's an except

As always, there is a lot to consider when investing in the infant formula sector. From an a2 Milk shareholder’s point of view, this most recent trip is perhaps the most encouraging we have ever undertaken in China.

[JeremyALD]

Thanks Beagle very interesting read :)

[Leftfield]

Thanks also Beagle, great to have this update on A2's progress in China. Thank you for posting it.Good comment also on the Nestle entry.

I also liked today's news release and was pleased to see an effective Tripling of the science role in ATM. Good to see the incumbent man staying on, and two replacements adding skills and support. I also suspect this is all planned and approved by the new CEO. Good succession planning.

Interesting times ahead.

[ratkin]

Suprised there not even been a slight reaction to todays news concerning the rapid spread of Mycoplasma, probably immaterial, however would have expected a little wobble.

[couta1]

Suprised there not even been a slight reaction to todays news concerning the rapid spread of Mycoplasma, probably immaterial, however would have expected a little wobble. Doesn't affect the Milk.

[Jaiden]

Doesn't affect the Milk.
Actually Mycoplasma bovis causes the calcium content to be decreased in the milk and a higher somatic cell count. It just doesn't cause disease in humans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_bovis

According to this stuff article, 22000 cows are being culled as a result, possibly with more to come. That's only about 0.03% of NZ's total herd.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/103787040/farms-under-question-with-cow-disease--mycoplasma-bovis-explode-to-exceed-mpi-estimates

[BlackPeter]

Actually Mycoplasma bovis causes the calcium content to be decreased in the milk and a higher somatic cell count. It just doesn't cause disease in humans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_bovis

According to this stuff article, 22000 cows are being culled as a result, possibly with more to come. That's only about 0.03% of NZ's total herd.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/103787040/farms-under-question-with-cow-disease--mycoplasma-bovis-explode-to-exceed-mpi-estimates

Read the article again.

It is not Mycoplasma bovis (MB) creating these effects, but Mastitis (which can be caused by MB). No farmer will allow to have a significant number of cows with mastitis, because this is a condition which leads (if untreated) quite fast to the exitus of the respective animal. I.e. this might be (given bad enough living conditions for the herd) an issue for animal mortality, but no material issue for milk quality ...

I think as well that the overall impact of MB is widely exaggerated. It is endemic in all other parts of the world - without (given proper farm management) any significant impact on milk production.

I am grown up in Europe and used to live in an area with plenty of dairy farmers (and knew several of them quite well). MB was never an issue for any of them. However - they tend to look better after their animals than the typical NZ farmer does, they provide shelter for the animals, they have typically a lower animal density per hectar (and smaller herds) and they keep the animals cleaner. Wouldn't it be great if a disease would force NZ farmers to look a bit better after their animals?

[waikare]

Read the article again.

It is not Mycoplasma bovis (MB) creating these effects, but Mastitis (which can be caused by MB). No farmer will allow to have a significant number of cows with mastitis, because this is a condition which leads (if untreated) quite fast to the exitus of the respective animal. I.e. this might be (given bad enough living conditions for the herd) an issue for animal mortality, but no material issue for milk quality ...

I think as well that the overall impact of MB is widely exaggerated. It is endemic in all other parts of the world - without (given proper farm management) any significant impact on milk production.

I am grown up in Europe and used to live in an area with plenty of dairy farmers (and knew several of them quite well). MB was never an issue for any of them. However - they tend to look better after their animals than the typical NZ farmer does, they provide shelter for the animals, they have typically a lower animal density per hectar (and smaller herds) and they keep the animals cleaner. Wouldn't it be great if a disease would force NZ farmers to look a bit better after their animals?

Our cockies won't be to happy regarding your comment that, NZ farmers need to look after their animals a bit better.........

[BlackPeter]

Our cockies won't be to happy regarding your comment that, NZ farmers need to look after their animals a bit better.........

Didn't realize that it is my job to make cockies happy. Sorry, just calling a spade a spade. And just to avoid any misunderstanding - generalizations are always wrong - of course are there as well some farmers in NZ looking well after their animals. However - you don't need to drive far to see some where improvements wouldn't go amiss.

Some examples: I can't remember any other country where I have seen that frequently dense herds standing without any shelter in paddocks covered with animal excrement instead of having fresh grass. No wonder these farmers are the best customers of the medical industry (deworming). They probably wouldn't like to eat their own excrement, but they don't mind if their animals have to.

Can't remember to have seen in other countries that many examples of complete herds suffering from diarrhea, and the animals dropping basically liquid sh*t instead of nice and well formed cow pats.

As well rare to see in other parts of the world large herds covered with a dense mixture of mud and excrement. Not that unusual in NZ, though - again a result of too intense farming. No clean place for the animals to sit down and nothing (like trees, stumps or similar) on the paddock to allow them to clean themselves up.

Too many farmers see their animals only as milk production engine and don't care about their well-being.

Not surprising that animals like that are more susceptible to suffer serious consequences if they catch MB (or any other disease).

Just to finish this post on a somewhat higher note - as indicated, there are good farmers around as well (but not enough), and I think that initiatives like e.g. Synlait's "Farming with Pride" will over time improve things in the dairy industry. But yes, they are small steps and it is a long way to go.

[couta1]

Unfortunately animal abuse is quite prevalent in both the farming and non farming sector in NZ.

[Beagle]

Looking forward to confirmation of MSCI index inclusion early this coming week.
All good, no worries, $15 here we come :t_up:

[bohemian]

I certainly hope you're right. See a fair bit of discussion on HC, one poster calculated it would only involve about 600000 shares which he reckoned wasn't that much. That is if ATM does even get included.

[winner69]

Looking forward to confirmation of MSCI index inclusion early this coming week.
All good, no worries, $15 here we come :t_up:

Hope you are right beagle

Needs something to give the share price a boost ....as the NZX50 reaches new highs ATM been languishing lately.

Some chart gurus reckon there are gaps to fill ...on the downside and 9 something is possible ....we desperately need that MSCI inclusion.

[minimoke]

Looking forward to confirmation of MSCI index inclusion early this coming week.
All good, no worries, $15 here we come :t_up:I wold sooner rely on solid company performance to lift share price than inclusion in some index. That said though, any rise gratefully accepted.

[waterboy]

I'm trying to understand more about the msci world index, some calcs on HC but I think they are wrong. My interpretation so far is that:
msci value $3trillion
if replaces FBU which is 0.008% of index that is 240 million USD
convert to nz dollars is 344 million
share price $13
=344000000/13 = 26,461,500 shares
total number of shares on issue is 730,000,000 so 3.6% of shares on issue are bought by fund? Does that right to you guys/gals
Doesn't seem like a lot shares directly affected.

There would probably be some other benefits, like perhaps large nz funds buy more shares because ATM is in world index?
Disc:holding

[Beagle]

ATM won't replace FBU or another N.Z. share constituent within that index at the bottom, its based on market cap so ATM will likely become the largest NZX company included in the MSCI index and the other remaining shares will all be rebalanced down a bit. That's how I see it anyway. Good example the other way was when XRO one of the largest NZX50 shares exited the NZX50 index in December last year due to its delisting. This saw a considerable rebalancing upwards of a lot of different stocks that make up that index and we saw some truly silly prices like HBL at $2.14 by way of example. Some cunning investors who were quick on their feet took advantage of that anomalous situation.

I'm confident ATM are trading really well and see this whole index thing as a bonus. Certainly something to keep us amused as we wait for the next stunning trading update.

[winner69]

Anybody having a go at the Keytone Dairy IPO in Aussie
https://shareinfo.wufoo.com/forms/zs22v7a04ifwb1/

Going to buy a NZ operator

Seems to be about milk and stuff and mentions China and Europe so must be a winner

The next A2 and Bellamy’s

[Leftfield]

Anybody having a go at the Keytone Dairy IPO in Aussie
https://shareinfo.wufoo.com/forms/zs22v7a04ifwb1/

Going to buy a NZ operator. Seems to be about milk and stuff and mentions China and Europe so must be a winner

The next A2 and Bellamy’s

Thanks Winner - interesting...... However, I've already got enuff diary in my portfolio, besides which I would rather wait till it gets some 'runs on the board.'

[NZSilver]

Thanks Winner - interesting...... However, I've already got enuff diary in my portfolio, besides which I would rather wait till it gets some 'runs on the board.'

Yeh I looked into it and figured I was better to buy more a2.

[winner69]

Solid start to the week share price wise

Big announcement tomorrow morning ......and by June 1st we all will be happy

After that well anything can happen ...just hope the share price hasn’t been hyped up way beyond a reasonable price.

[MikeE]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/which-stocks-will-win-msci-lottery-jr-p-215559

[minimoke]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/which-stocks-will-win-msci-lottery-jr-p-215559Some of us have spent all our money on Canterbury Creme and let our NBR subscription lapse so dont get to see behind the paywall on this one.

[Beagle]

Some of us have spent all our money on Canterbury Creme and let our NBR subscription lapse so dont get to see behind the paywall on this one.

LOL just a continuation of the seemingly endless media interest in the change to the MSCI index...nothing that hasn't been discussed on here or in the N.Z. Herald many times already. Announcement of the change is 14 May U.S. time so we'll get confirmation tomorrow morning our time. NBR pay-walling almost everything these days regardless of whether its rehashed tripe or otherwise. Mercury or Fletcher Building to get the boot..the latter more thoroughly deserving of it than the former in my opinion.

[sb9]

LOL just a continuation of the seemingly endless media interest in the change to the MSCI index...nothing that hasn't been discussed on here or in the N.Z. Herald many times already. Announcement of the change is 14 May U.S. time so we'll get confirmation tomorrow morning our time. NBR pay-walling almost everything these days regardless of whether its rehashed tripe or otherwise. Mercury or Fletcher Building to get the boot..the latter more thoroughly deserving of it than the former in my opinion.

Re NBR pay-walling, that's exactly what I've noticed over past few months. They just seem slap 'subscription only access' for any article some of which can be found on other websites with free access. Bit of an overkill re their pay-walling, sorry to digress.

Thanks for the summary Beagle.

[bull....]

Re NBR pay-walling, that's exactly what I've noticed over past few months. They just seem slap 'subscription only access' for any article some of which can be found on other websites with free access. Bit of an overkill re their pay-walling, sorry to digress.

Thanks for the summary Beagle.

thats why i dont have a subscription to much story rewritten from other free sources with the odd bit of worthwhile stuff.

reckon most funds already in , be a big drop if it wasnt included

[minimoke]

LOL just a continuation of the seemingly endless media interest in the change to the MSCI index...nothing that hasn't been discussed on here or in the N.Z. Herald many times already. Announcement of the change is 14 May U.S. time so we'll get confirmation tomorrow morning our time. NBR pay-walling almost everything these days regardless of whether its rehashed tripe or otherwise. Mercury or Fletcher Building to get the boot..the latter more thoroughly deserving of it than the former in my opinion.
FBU down a bit today. Wouldnt we expect to see relative same falls for them as we would rises for ATM. (assuming of course FBU does get binned and I cant see why it would deserve to stay)

[Beagle]

FBU down a bit today. Wouldnt we expect to see relative same falls for them as we would rises for ATM. (assuming of course FBU does get binned and I cant see why it would deserve to stay)

Yes, we'll know more pretty soon.

Regarding NBR $35 monthly sub. You get best value in the reporting season in my opinion in the months of February and August wherein analysts and institutions often share their thoughts on the results. A canny investor looking to keep annual subs to a sensible level would probably just subscribe in those two months.
Clearly other companies report outside those dates but those two months cover the majority of annual and interim financial results.

The annual sub is $280 and is probably best value rather than letting them direct drill your account every month for $35. I guess it only takes one good investment idea in a whole year to more than recover the cost...

[winner69]

FPH joined the MSCI World Index last December

Huge volumes but little impact on share price over November / December .......and since as share price today much the same as it was on December 1st which was the big day

Is the MSCI New Zealand Index just a subset of the World Index

Interesting charts on MSCI website ...the world does better than NZ

[minimoke]

FPH joined the MSCI World Index last December

Huge volumes but little impact on share price over November / December .......and since as share price today much the same as it was on December 1st which was the big day

Is the MSCI New Zealand Index just a subset of the World Index

Interesting charts on MSCI website ...the world does better than NZFPH SP went from $13.10 early December to $14.30 late december - before dropping away to today's position back around $13.10

[winner69]

FPH SP went from $13.10 early December to $14.30 late december - before dropping away to today's position back around $13.10j

ATM better do better than that or else we’ll all be a bit peeved off ...and disappointed

[waterboy]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5723693/Coles-forced-sell-baby-formula-counter-limiting-quantities-two-customer.html

interesting reading ..product being bought and on sold

[winner69]

Tension builds ....almost unbearable

Will it or won’t it

[silu]

Will it or won't it?

[NZSilver]

When do we find out?

[winner69]

We are in ....yippee yippee

Mercury out

[winner69]

Global recognition ....wow

[BigBob]

When do we find out?

Now - a2m in and Mercury out of the NZ Index

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May18_STPublicList.pdf

[couta1]

Now - a2m in and Mercury is out of the NZ Index

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/pressreleases/archive/MSCI_May18_SAIRPR.pdf Just as I thought, feeling a bit sorry for MCY holders.

[Beagle]

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May18_STPublicList.pdf

See page 2 for N.Z. addition and deletion confirmation.

[couta1]

A2 will have about 30% of the total pie once added which means the other constituents are going to have to be sold down to keep the pie at 100%, should be a few bargins available on May 31st.

[nzsharetrade]

A2 will have about 30% of the total pie once added which means the other constituents are going to have to be sold down to keep the pie at 100%, should be a few bargins available on May 31st.

could you provide more details for newbie like me?

[winner69]

At least the inclusion into that index will support the share price for a bit longer .....will hide how overvalued it is

[couta1]

could you provide more details for newbie like me? If Mr Beagle would be so kind to attatch the info page I sent him a while back, that would be good? PS-I must learn how to do that.

[Sideshow Bob]

could you provide more details for newbie like me?

As a starter:

The MSCI world index, which is part of the modern index strategy, is a broad global equity index that represents large and mid-cap equity performance across 23 developed markets countries. It covers about 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalisation in each country.
The MSCI world index does not offer exposure to emerging markets.

[Beagle]

If Mr Beagle would be so kind to attatch the info page I sent him a while back, that would be good? PS-I must learn how to do that.

Yes, many thanks for that info you emailed me.
I'll see what I can do a little later on today.

[nzsharetrade]

As a starter:

The MSCI world index, which is part of the modern index strategy, is a broad global equity index that represents large and mid-cap equity performance across 23 developed markets countries. It covers about 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalisation in each country.
The MSCI world index does not offer exposure to emerging markets.

Thanks for your reply, I understand what the MSCI is but dont understand "A2 will have about 30% of the total pie once added which means the other constituents are going to have to be sold down to keep the pie at 100%, should be a few bargins available on May 31st." I could not believe the total pie is the entire MSCI.

[couta1]

Yes, many thanks for that info you emailed me.
I'll see what I can do a little later on today. Thanks mate, basically nzsharetrade,MCY had a 6.55% weighting in the NZ index, A2 will replace it with an approximate 30% weighting, to keep the pie at 100% some serious reshuffling needs to occur(The NZ pie is made up of 7 constituents or slices) Currently FPH has the biggest slice of the pie at 22.26%.

[Sideshow Bob]

At least the inclusion into that index will support the share price for a bit longer .....will hide how overvalued it is

Are you going fishing for a bite on a Tuesday morning Winner? Most here as bit too one-eyed with profit to see it!

[winner69]

Thanks mate, basically nzsharetrade,MCY had a 6.55% weighting in the NZ index, A2 will replace it with an approximate 30% weighting, to keep the pie at 100% some serious reshuffling needs to occur(The NZ pie is made up of 7 constituents or slices) Currently FPH has the biggest slice of the pie at 22.26%.

So SPK FPH AIA RYM FBU MEL share prices could come under pressure in next few weeks

[Beagle]

Thanks mate, basically nzsharetrade,MCY had a 6.55% weighting in the NZ index, A2 will replace it with an approximate 30% weighting, to keep the pie at 100% some serious reshuffling needs to occur(The NZ pie is made up of 7 constituents or slices) Currently FPH has the biggest slice of the pie at 22.26%.

As I see it with the market cap of ATM it will go to the head of the list and the others will all come down a bit with Mercury falling out.
That's how I have observed these things playing out before. Its not just the change of ATM and Mercury, the others get reweighted as well which as discussed could throw up an interesting buying opportunity.

[Investor]

No worries mate I managed to convert it into a link
http:///C:/Users/user/AppData/Local/Packages/Microsoft.MicrosoftEdge_8wekyb3d8bbwe/TempState/Downloads/msci-new-zealand-index.pdf
As I see it with the market cap of ATM it will go to the head of the list and the others will all come down a bit with Mercury falling out.
That's how I have observed these things playing out before. Its not just the change of ATM and Mercury, the others get reweighted as well which as discussed could throw up an interesting buying opportunity.

That's a local link to your personal computer, you would need to provide a link that others can access (where the data is hosted online).

[couta1]

So SPK FPH AIA RYM FBU MEL share prices could come under pressure in next few weeks More so on May 31st I reckon.

[Beagle]

TOP 7 CONSTITUENTS
Float Adj Mkt Cap ( USD Billions)
Index Wt. (%)
Sector
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTH 5.43 22.26 Health Care SPARK NEW ZEALAND 4.42 18.11 Telecom Srvcs AUCKLAND INTL AIRPORT 4.23 17.33 Industrials RYMAN HEALTHCARE 3.06 12.52 Health Care FLETCHER BUILDING 3.03 12.42 Materials MERIDIAN ENERGY 2.64 10.81 Utilities MERCURY NZ 1.60 6.55 Utilities Total 24.41 100.00

I tried posting an image of what Couta1 sent me and had a bit of trouble as noted by Investor. hopefully the above will give people the info they need.
I believe the float adjusted market cap removes major shareholdings that are locked up.
Anyway if we look at FPH by way of example its float adjusted market cap is $5.43b and constitutes 22.26% of the MSCI N.Z. index. I believe this and the other constituents will decline such that they are reweighted to take into account ATM's float adjusted market cap which is probably bigger than any other share here.

[nzsharetrade]

Thanks couta1 and Beagle. I got this.

[winner69]

Its so good that A2 market cap is so so huge ......an inordinate amount of buying necessary

Punting on index inclusions isn’t really “Investing” is it ...never mind as long as the share price goes to $14.60 and beyond and sets new all time highs

[Beagle]

Its so good that A2 market cap is so so huge ......an inordinate amount of buying necessary

Punting on index inclusions isn’t really “Investing” is it ...never mind as long as the share price goes to $14.60 and beyond and sets new all time highs

It is investing but its index investing. I think you are dead right that there is going to be an inordinate amount of buying in the lead up to this change and especially on 31 May itself in the last 15 minutes closing match process. Could be a LOT of selling going on too with the existing constituents, especially Mercury exiting the index.
Disc: I topped up with some more ATM this morning.

[winner69]

It is investing but its index investing. I think you are dead right that there is going to be an inordinate amount of buying in the lead up to this change and especially on 31 May itself in the last 15 minutes closing match process. Could be a LOT of selling going on too with the existing constituents, especially Mercury exiting the index.
Disc: I topped up with some more ATM this morning.

If / when ATM share price weakens after June 1st the MSCI NZ Index might not be a good place to be ...underperform v the World

Never mind ..as long as it heads to 15 bucks from here

[Beagle]

If / when ATM share price weakens after June 1st the MSCI NZ Index might not be a good place to be ...underperform v the World

Never mind ..as long as it heads to 15 bucks from here
Its been a while since we had a trading update but I believe ATM is on a forward PE for FY19 in the mid-late 20's which is very good value relative to other top N.Z. companies most of which have been growing at a much slower pace. In my opinion the key with this stock (or any other growth stock for that matter) is to have a vision for five years down the track of how the company will be performing. I'd be very surprised if the SP doesn't double within 5 years, probably MUCH EARLIER.

If you have enough of these potential double your money in five years opportunities some will do much better than that and others not achieve expectations but overall one's portfolio will do extremely well. Stocks that I think are highly likely to double in the next five years include ATM, SML, SUM, OCA and RYM. The common theme with those is the sustained ongoing growth in profits I expect all of them to enjoy.
Disc: Looking for an opportunity to get back into RYM at some stage soon.

[BlackPeter]

is there another thread to discuss IPO Keytone Dairy Corporation ASX:KTD ? i did a search but did not find it. today is the last day to register.

Well, this is definitely not the right thread to do that. Why don't you create one under ASX?

[winner69]

It is investing but its index investing. .


it's not proper investing ....its gambling ....or taking a punt ...but on a certainty

[Beagle]

it's not proper investing ....its gambling ....or taking a punt ...but on a certainty

Like the jockey just instantly shed 20 kg's of weight isn't it mate :) As long as the horse doesn't go lame we're winners.

P.S. Looks like a bit of buy the rumor sell the fact, can't say I'm entirely surprised with such an incredible amount of media attention about this index change.

Really need a company update confirming stellar growth this half to date to fire this up.

[RupertBear]

So why did it go down today? :confused:

[JeremyALD]

So why did it go down today? :confused:

I guess it was widely expected to happen and seems some people sold in the afternoon after there wasn't a surge in SP. On the ASX it finished less than a percent down so may climb somewhat tomorrow..

As Beagle pointed out I think we need an update to get any serious movement going

[couta1]

So why did it go down today? :confused: Traders young Bear, Traders.

[Beagle]

Best gains for the day were with Synlait with it going into the small cap MSCI index. Nobody talked about it, nobody knew about it, it wasn't in the media, I had to look up the MSCI small cap index announcement fine print for myself and then quickly bought some more and then talked about it on here to give others the heads-up. I guess the reminder I gave myself today is there's value in looking under rocks for yourself and on the other hand if something gets really, really extensive media coverage, chances are its already a crowded trade.

That said I still think the volume of buying on 31 May in ATM will be immense and there's money to be made and I still believe the company is trading exceptionally well and has fantastic long term prospects and isn't expensive on a FY19 PE basis in the mid-late 20's. Great long term growth story and I'm a happy holder. I think this is a really exciting company with outstanding prospects and those with the nerve to ride this volatile tiger with a really serious position deserve to do exceptionally well.

[Leftfield]

MSCI is sssooo yesterday!

It gave ATM holders a small thrill, however for any real thrill we need a trading update. I guess what MSCI means in the short term (always dangerous to use the word short!).... is less volatility.....but we will see. In the meantime we wait patiently.

Bolli bands looking encouraging for ATM so just a matter of time.

Well done SML and THL holders !

[see weed]

Nice big block of sellers from 13.12 to 13.30. Are they sellers? or are they buyers making a good block to force sp down to get more shares at a cheaper price;).

[winner69]

MSCI is sssooo yesterday!

It gave ATM holders a small thrill, however for any real thrill we need a trading update. I guess what MSCI means in the short term (always dangerous to use the word short!).... is less volatility.....but we will see. In the meantime we wait patiently.

Bolli bands looking encouraging for ATM so just a matter of time.

Well done SML and THL holders !

Bolli bands looking encouraging .....that’s great

[winner69]

nice little update as expected right.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/318030/279230.pdf

Those expecting $1 billion revenues will be disappointed as well as those who were touting much higher margins.

Just have to continue believing the story I suppose

[Ggcc]

I’m still happy to see them grow at 70% per annum. I never expected them to reach sales of over 1 billion. I am more than happy if the reach 900-920 million.

[hardt]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/318030/279230.pdf

Those expecting $1 billion revenues will be disappointed as well as those who were touting much higher margins.

Just have to continue believing the story I suppose

after I typed that up I remembered the last batch of fat juicy forecast upgrades...

50-60% yoy revenue growth is clearly not going to be enough to keep the insatiable mob happy...

gladly buying on any real weakness these following weeks.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for posting Winner.....Pretty much in line with my estimate of FY18 revenues at circa $950 mill. 70% growth in revenues is v impressive IMO, but how the market will react remains to be seen!

Great to have this info' out there now.

[winner69]

Exponential growth continues = $1 billion
Trend growth continues = ~$900m
Stuff fairy tale are made of growth = $1.1 billion

Somebody said $1 billion would be smashed

Always was going to be ~$900m

Margins about same as H1 and the hint of higher marketing some punters earnings forecasts are under threat as well

[silu]

I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term

[BlackPeter]

I’m still happy to see them grow at 70% per annum. I never expected them to reach sales of over 1 billion. I am more than happy if the reach 900-920 million.

Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.

If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?

So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);

Happy holder.

[winner69]

They usually under promise over deliver don’t they?

[couta1]

They usually under promise over deliver don’t they? That's the thing, they could still end up close to the 1 billion yet.

[winner69]

Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.

If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?

So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);

Happy holder.

Doesn’t that just show that Graham’s formula is nonsensical in an environment of high growth

But gives one the warm fuzzies eh.

[minimoke]

I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term
We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards

Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.

[silu]

We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards

Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.

Yeah with that kind of growth I'm not bothered with short term fluctuations in SP at all. Something big and bad will have to happen before I sell my remaining shares. I want to be part of this story - be in it to win it.

[winner69]

Hamilton Hibden Greene guru

Grant Davies (@G_T_Davies)
16/05/18, 9:30 AM
Will be an interesting trading day for @a2milk . Broker consensus revenue forecast was $952m, a2 now forecasting $900-920m. Also higher expenditure in the US & China. Are we looking at a rare miss for NZ's favourite growth story?

[777]

A bit of an over reaction showing up in the quotes. 11.80 now.

[couta1]

Panic mode activated.

[minimoke]

Looks like it might be time for the double down strategy again. Will let the first hour settle.

[couta1]

Looks like it might be time for the double down strategy again. Will let the first hour settle. It's actually quite pathetic to watch.

[bull....]

wow , thought would happen best way to shake the volume to get those msci stock

anyway showed growth slowing

[couta1]

wow , thought would happen best way to shake the volume to get those msci stock Index funds can't buy until 31st May, passive funds can however.

[minimoke]

It's actually quite pathetic to watch.
Reminds me of a Kirkaldies sale. Cant resist. Got another buy order in. Lets see how it plays out

[bull....]

Index funds can't buy until 31st May, passive funds can however.

doesnt stop friendly parties buying now

hope nobody brought thinking the msci would make the price go up?

[BlackPeter]

Doesn’t that just show that Graham’s formula is nonsensical in an environment of high growth

But gives one the warm fuzzies eh.

Not sure ... I guess the Graham formula works quite well for long periods of consistent and sustained growth. So I guess what you might really be asking is - is it sensible to assume sustained high growth rates (above 20 or 30 %) for any company? Not the fault of the formula if you do ... and your assumptions are wrong.

And yes, high growth seem to be self defeating (getting harder and harder for a big company to grow fast), but then ... SUM other companies seem to be able to do it :P;

If we look at ATM - I guess if A2 Milk becomes the next big thing all over the world and nobody else dives into it, than yes, the numbers delivered by the Graham formula might be right. However - given that we see already now competitors on the horizon ... is it probably more sensible to assume lower growth rates - and see - the Graham formula is still right ;);

It just depends on your growth assumptions over the next decade or so - get this number right and the Graham formula will make sense ;);

Obviously, as we all know, there is still this big difference between value and price. Example - Crypto currencies have no underlying value but might still be quite dear (price). Grahams formula delivers one (of many possible) approximation of value, not the predicted price.

But of course, you knew all that ...

[winner69]

Reminds me of a Kirkaldies sale. Cant resist. Got another buy order in. Lets see how it plays out

Kirks went broke

[bull....]

still got the gap to fill at 9.50..... market never forgets wait till au opens hammer time

[couta1]

I've never had so much paper profit wiped off my portfolio in just a few minutes, I won't say how much but it ain't pretty.

[t.rexjr]

Gobble gobble...

[carrom74]

It's actually quite pathetic to watch.

Couta1-then what is the fair value of this stock? it has reported just "under" a few million as per the "expectations" and to me it is still a fantastic NZ story...and also joining the MSCI .

I just cant understand the panic.

Disc:Sold out at 8.37 and regretting

[winner69]

Even when XRO price halved from outrageous highs it recovered to its former glory (and more realistically priced?)

[bull....]

I've never had so much paper profit wiped off my portfolio in just a few minutes, I won't say how much but it ain't pretty.

you not buying more?

[gbogo]

classic buy the rumour, sell the fact. and mind the gap.

[minimoke]

Couta1-then what is the fair value of this stock? it has reported just "under" a few million as per the "expectations" and to me it is still a fantastic NZ story...and also joining the MSCI .

I just cant understand the panic.

Disc:Sold out at 8.37 and regrettingThere wil be a few stop loses in place. Im breaking my rule and wil buy in if stop loss limit hit. (rules are made for breaking!)

[bull....]

anyway roll on 9.50

[couta1]

you not buying more? It makes up 60% of my portfolio currently, and I did buy more yesterday.Lol PS-Will be a blood bath once the ASX opens, stop losses triggered, margin calls and shorters having a field day.

[bull....]

It makes up 60% of my portfolio currently, and I did buy more yesterday.Lol

i feel for your pain , but 60% in such a highly volitile stock, traders stock really wow

[winner69]

When are the MSCI weightings calculated ...yesterday’s market cap or something closer to what it may be on May 31st

[carrom74]

There wil be a few stop loses in place. Im breaking my rule and wil buy in if stop loss limit hit. (rules are made for breaking!)

I like your positivity and may be bull.. is right eh? $9.50 is close now...

[bull....]

I like your positivity and may be bull.. is right eh? $9.50 is close now...

gap will be filled at some stage

[Ggcc]

I have massively doubled down

[couta1]

I like your positivity and may be bull.. is right eh? $9.50 is close now... $10.34 NZ equals $9.50 Au approx so gap has been closed.

[kizame]

Somebody knew something yesterday when at 1:30 the price drove down after a gap up morning start.
I never thought the RSI could go that low.

[Blair]

Looks like it might be time for the double down strategy again. Will let the first hour settle.

What did you get in at? I got more at $10.50 and hoping/trusting it will bottom out around $10 then rebound.

[Lego_Man]

This thread was becoming a classic case of irrational exuberance/euphoria/hysteria, so hopefully this calms things down a bit.

[silu]

It makes up 60% of my portfolio currently, and I did buy more yesterday.Lol PS-Will be a blood bath once the ASX opens, stop losses triggered, margin calls and shorters having a field day.

I've sold a parcel at $13 because it got to 30% of my portfolio. I don't have the cojones to hold such a high percentage of my portfolio in a single stock.

[couta1]

This thread was becoming a classic case of irrational exuberance/euphoria/hysteria, so hopefully this calms things down a bit. Not at all, future SP will be huge a few years from now. PS-I don't follow herd panic, have been taught many valuable lessons re that over the years