ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[enzed staffy]

beg your pardon youre right mini - I read 1.7 for the day - it was 1.17

[Beagle]

WTF is happening at close?

Third Friday of the last month of each quarter is NZX50 index rebalancing. Ironic that the rebalancing of the NZX50 index which nobody to the best of my knowledge, (myself included because I forgot about it) uttered a single peep about had more effect on the price that the major MSCI index rebalance that was talked about for many weeks. Life is full of ironic twists and turns, this a fine example.

[tipsy]

Those poor shorters.

[t.rexjr]

Those poor shorters.

Don't worry about the shorters, they're buying many more than they sell. They are laughing...

[dreamcatcher]

From HC 618 Shopping Extravaganza ........a2 ENGLISH LABEL ALL SOLD OUT ON JD.COM

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2-english-label-all-sold-out-on-jd-com.4250158/#.WyblF-Qh3Pw

[minimoke]

Look for A2 product placement in Masterchef Australia 2018

[Dust]

Taking a bit of profit today, 16% alpha not bad for 2 n half weeks. I think a slight pull back is needed, will be back in after a slight dipper...that said, watch this run to $12AUD soon as I sell out lol

[JoeGrogan]

Taking a bit of profit today, 16% alpha not bad for 2 n half weeks. I think a slight pull back is needed, will be back in after a slight dipper...that said, watch this run to $12AUD soon as I sell out lol


I too took some profit on Friday close last week, but still have a few as it made new recent highs and broke above $11 on the ASX. Higher highs and higher lows so far, been a traders dream ever since that guidance announcement.

[bull....]

shorts still increasing

[Leftfield]

shorts still increasing

True, though well down on last August's levels......

9747

[dreamcatcher]

One might assume a2 is a beneficiary from this 618 massive sales extravaganza ..............

https://pandaily.com/record-sales-at-rmb-127-5-billion-for-jd-coms-618-shopping-festival/

[tipsy]

One might assume a2 is a beneficiary from this 618 massive sales extravaganza ..............

https://pandaily.com/record-sales-at-rmb-127-5-billion-for-jd-coms-618-shopping-festival/

Earnings upgrade on the cards?

[dreamcatcher]

Final numbers for 618 JD.com shopping extravaganza increased to 159 BILLION a massive 33% increase on 2017 ......................:t_up:

[winner69]

Earnings upgrade on the cards?

Now you are talking tipsy

BIG earnings upgrade I hope ...even a small share of those BILLIONS is a lot for A2

[Ggcc]

A big order placed on the asx........ will see where this goes

[ddrone]

A big order placed on the asx........ will see where this goes

Left over from close yesterday, will most likely drop off.

[Ggcc]

It wasn’t on there first thing. It came on later this morning

[couta1]

Left over from close yesterday, will most likely drop off. Option expiry day today so could be some weird stuff going on during pre open match price.

[nzsharetrade]

Option expiry day today so could be some weird stuff going on during pre open match price.

What is Option expiry day?

[Sideshow Bob]

What is Option expiry day?

21st of June - "SHORT-est day of the year"

BOOM! :eek2:

Sorry ;)

[minimoke]

Option expiry day today so could be some weird stuff going on during pre open match price.Lets see what happens. currently pre-open at $11.30 for 435k shares (including the 231k bid). Deck shares about to be shuffled for a better spot in the sun.

edit. and at 11:30 someone comes to play with 238k to sell. cross is at $11.42
Edit at 11:45 983k crossing at $11.42. Such an elegant dance!
Edit at 11:59 1.1m at $11.10 and at open $11.10 which is NZ $11.92

[couta1]

What is Option expiry day? It's complicated but basically each calendar month there is an Options and Futures Expiration date, today is the Equity Index Derivatives expiration day and June 28th is the Individual Equity Derivatives expiration day, what effect will it have on the SP today, i wouldn't have a clue. PS-I wouldn't be buying any shares on the NZX this morning.

[44wishlists]

What is Option expiry day?

Put it in simple term, it's a rebalance of the XJO on ASX. You may google it for more details.

[couta1]

Put it in simple term, it's a rebalance of the XJO on ASX. You may google it for more details. Basically just look at it as Index book squaring for the month, just noise for long term holders. PS-Ended up being good noise for traders but could have gone the other way.

[whatsup]

On fire so far up 2.7% whatsup, first time above in a month !

[minimoke]

On fire so far up 2.7% whatsup, first time above in a month !And SML up 2% so far

[Muppett]

It's complicated but basically each calendar month there is an Options and Futures Expiration date, today is the Equity Index Derivatives expiration day and June 28th is the Individual Equity Derivatives expiration day, what effect will it have on the SP today, i wouldn't have a clue. PS-I wouldn't be buying any shares on the NZX this morning. Why not? Is it because you like buying on the dip?

[couta1]

Why not? Is it because you like buying on the dip? Exactly, and it could have opened lower on the ASX.

[winner69]

Lets see what happens. currently pre-open at $11.30 for 435k shares (including the 231k bid). Deck shares about to be shuffled for a better spot in the sun.

edit. and at 11:30 someone comes to play with 238k to sell. cross is at $11.42
Edit at 11:45 983k crossing at $11.42. Such an elegant dance!
Edit at 11:59 1.1m at $11.10 and at open $11.10 which is NZ $11.92

Love your ‘deck shares’ ...cool

[couta1]

Shorts also continue to burn. Bum burning day has arrived Lol.

[Beagle]

Bum burning day has arrived Lol.

Start at 1.15 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep_mf6ZE9U0

[Ggcc]

A thought for those poor shorters........ yeah that thought went fast

[minimoke]

So, how do you figure out what the shorters are selling at? (I'm new to this shorting business!)

[winner69]

So, how do you figure out what the shorters are selling at? (I'm new to this shorting business!)

They probably laughing at those who think they are getting burnt big time

[minimoke]

They probably laughing at those who think they are getting burnt big timeThats what I'm trying to learn. How do we know its not shorters selling today at $12.15 or $12.20 or $12.25?

[winner69]

Thats what I'm trying to learn. How do we know its not shorters selling today at $12.15 or $12.20 or $12.25?

I would say that only the shorters can tell us that

What’s said about this shorting stuff I reckon is just speculation. Nobody really knows the detail

Bit like you mini in that I don’t understand all this that well either ...maybe it is just people’s imagination ...or I am very naive, which is likely the case.

[Leftfield]

Thats what I'm trying to learn. How do we know its not shorters selling today at $12.15 or $12.20 or $12.25?

MiniMoke, the more I learn about shorting, the more determined I am to avoid shorting.

KISS principle makes more sense. IMO this is one stock that is best to go long on. Watch the trends, buy the dips, and be patient (what other stock has the potential to continue to outperform NZX so well over the next year or two.)

JMO - DYOR

(ps bit early to call it yet, but today looking like a great day for longer term ATM holders. Now in the upper gap area, and upwards pressure mounting.)

[minimoke]

MiniMoke, the more I learn about shorting, the more determined I am to avoid shorting.

KISS principle makes more sense. IMO this is one stock that is best to go long on. Watch the trends, buy the dips, and be patient (what other stock has the potential to continue to outperform NZX so well over the next year or two.)

JMO - DYOR

(ps bit early to call it yet, but today looking like a great day for longer term ATM holders. Now in the upper gap area, and upwards pressure mounting.)I'm not interested in shorting. Haven't got the gonnads for it. But trying to understand how it works and how a market sentiment might move because of them. (ATM in my 5 year plan basket)

[Lego_Man]

I'm not interested in shorting. Haven't got the gonnads for it. But trying to understand how it works and how a market sentiment might move because of them. (ATM in my 5 year plan basket)

You'd be wise not to read anything on here if that's your aim - it's mostly uninformed conspiracy theory gibberish.

Things to remember about shorting:

i) the idea that people short to drive the price down before then using the selloff to load up on cheaper shares, is mostly fantasy, especially on larger cap stocks where the market is more efficient. Thinking about it, the net effect would typically have to be zero or negative (to succeed, you have to sell enough shares to tank the price, then buy a larger amount at the cheaper price without moving the market back up again).

ii) it's not some nefarious slam-dunk practice designed to screw the retail shareholder, in fact it's an incredibly challenging and risky strategy. When you short a share you face unlimited losses if the stock rallies, and have borrowing costs to contend with. Your stock can also be recalled before you've made meaningful money, even if you're right. Contrast to a long side investor who benefits from generally rising markets, and can only lose a maximum of 100% on any one holding.

iii) It's not a god-given right for people's favourite stock to go up in a straight line. Overruns on the upside should be able to be "bet against", just as overruns on the downside can be exploited by bargain hunters or value investors. In fact you could argue that the shorter is doing smaller investors a favour, by supplying more shares for them to buy at lower price.

In our capital markets the shorter should be respected, not vilified.

[Lego_Man]

I'm not interested in shorting. Haven't got the gonnads for it. But trying to understand how it works and how a market sentiment might move because of them. (ATM in my 5 year plan basket)

Also, most people shorting use it as part of a broader strategy. E.g. you might want to express a relative view on outperformance of BHP vs Rio Tinto - so go long one and short the other, neutralising the broad sector risk. Or simply balance market exposure by picking a bunch of longs you think you will outperform the market, and couple with some shorts that you expect to underperform the market - this enhances your returns and lowers volatility if done successfully.

[winner69]

Thanks legoman ..good stuff

[t.rexjr]

Trouble is with trying to understand shorting is that there are so many objectives. Far more to learn than what can be summarised on here by someone talking in single perspective.

To claim directional pressure cant be applied is fallacy. Take a look at this chart a from one of the A2M trading days pre 31 May. The 'money flow' indicator is steadily climbing (indicating buying pressure) while the stock price steadily fell. Pretty simple really. Sell 100k shares in small parcels hopefully lowering share price. Buy back 110k shares for the same outlay. Rinse and repeat until you have filled quota, then cover the short.

Sell free float shares to 'Boss Hogg' on Market. Pay 'Boss Hogg' profits by way of fee for 'services rendered'. Collect commission. Boss Hogg has purchased quota of shares for the cost of commission. Trader drives away in new Maserati

Clearly the second part is fantasy & wild speculation, but I tagged along on the first part and did OK. That was untill I missed my last trade and wound up back at square 1. Oh well, You live and you learn...


9755

[Redmack]

Thanks Minimoke and Lego man for the questions and the answers.

[44wishlists]

Thank you for Lego_Man.

Overruns on the upside should be able to be "bet against", just as overruns on the downside can be exploited by bargain hunters or value investors. In fact you could argue that the shorter is doing smaller investors a favour, by supplying more shares for them to buy at lower price.

This is exactly why we short position, as part of our investment plan too.

[winner69]

The stories you hear about these distardly shorters would make you wonder where is all the rumour mongering that some products are tainted and the leaked reports from China that the government is going to ban imported formula products and even worse the AFR reporting that the financials have been fiddled and revenues are nowhere as high as reported .... all to send the shareprice plummeting


Isn't that often their modus operandi ...at least that seems the way they operate if you read the papers.


No - above not real ....just made up things that have happened to other companies.

[peat]

21st of June - "SHORT-est day of the year"

BOOM! :eek2:

Sorry ;)

I smiled and kind of surprised I'd never heard it before!

[peat]

Start at 1.15 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep_mf6ZE9U0

woah, that is awesome! be sure to turn it up to 2160 to get the full 4K ass burning experience.

yeh I wouldn't short this stock. and I would HODL if I had any but cant find the gumption to get in. I was starting to think about it during the deeper part of this post guidance correction phase but haven't. I guess my main concern about the super inflated price is the longevity of the competitive advantage. If it is only branding ....then a limited life span?
IMHO thats why you never pay crazy PE's because something can always go wrong.

[JoeGrogan]

Trouble is with trying to understand shorting is that there are so many objectives. Far more to learn than what can be summarised on here by someone talking in single perspective.

To claim directional pressure cant be applied is fallacy. Take a look at this chart a from one of the A2M trading days pre 31 May. The 'money flow' indicator is steadily climbing (indicating buying pressure) while the stock price steadily fell. Pretty simple really. Sell 100k shares in small parcels hopefully lowering share price. Buy back 110k shares for the same outlay. Rinse and repeat until you have filled quota, then cover the short.

Sell free float shares to 'Boss Hogg' on Market. Pay 'Boss Hogg' profits by way of fee for 'services rendered'. Collect commission. Boss Hogg has purchased quota of shares for the cost of commission. Trader drives away in new Maserati

Clearly the second part is fantasy & wild speculation, but I tagged along on the first part and did OK. That was untill I missed my last trade and wound up back at square 1. Oh well, You live and you learn...


9755

The twiggs money flow indicator on my chart was declining pre 31 May. If the share price is declining even slightly on strong volume, it still means there is stronger selling pressure than buying pressure (i.e distribution), so money flow normally will go down. (Charts from the ASX)

9757

On another note, shorting is very effective on range bound shares, gives an opportunity to make money both ways as it fluctuates within its range. Shorting requires strict stop losses and hedging rules to be successful imo. On the chart above, shorts were increasing as the price got closer to 10.95 as it was a key resistance level (see shortman). Now that it has hit the 11's some shorts would have had stop losses triggered yesterday - driving a intraday price spike .

[IAK]

New study seeks to understand more about A2 milk - and the huge changes it potentially brings. Results of this study due in July. Interesting, Lactose-free milk has a disadvantage as a product; ice cream and other dairy products made from it do not taste as good.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503708&objectid=12075177

Disc. Holding this roller coaster.

[dobby41]

New study seeks to understand more about A2 milk - and the huge changes it potentially brings. Results of this study due in July. Interesting, Lactose-free milk has a disadvantage as a product; ice cream and other dairy products made from it do not taste as good.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503708&objectid=12075177

Disc. Holding this roller coaster.

A 'sponsored' story.
I would have thought that they understood how it worked by now but it seems not.

[IAK]

A 'sponsored' story.
I would have thought that they understood how it worked by now but it seems not.
It's a tricky one, "How do you prove your product scientifically?" No one else is going to spend the money on the research so they have to do it themselves, which leads to claims of bias. 6 of one half a dozen of the other. At the end of the day it comes down to the consumer.

[Ggcc]

It's a tricky one, "How do you prove your product scientifically?" No one else is going to spend the money on the research so they have to do it themselves, which leads to claims of bias. 6 of one half a dozen of the other. At the end of the day it comes down to the consumer.
I agree with what you say. In hospitality, we were sick of people with all sorts of intolerances coming forward that they probably never had. It is great as an investor for A2, even if it is just the placebo effect customers are getting. If it works for them they buy the product

[minimoke]

I agree with what you say. In hospitality, we were sick of people with all sorts of intolerances coming forward that they probably never had. I feel your pain - those paying customers are such a nuisance. And its not hospitality's fault some seem unable to put a simple "GF" on their menus. Never mind, those pests still have money and wil find an alternative hospo to spend it and should not be troubling you any more.

[Ggcc]

I feel your pain - those paying customers are such a nuisance. And its not hospitality's fault some seem unable to put a simple "GF" on their menus. Never mind, those pests still have money and wil find an alternative hospo to spend it and should not be troubling you any more.
Haha sometimes it is better that they stay at home. As much fun sitting next to a family with screaming kids. Ask friends of yours who have worked in the hospitality sector, it will open your eyes. 😊

There are of places that offer food for those intolerant people. Please go to those places and don’t ask other places to change their menu. Most genuine intolerant people do understand

[Nasi Goreng]

A 'sponsored' story.
I would have thought that they understood how it worked by now but it seems not.

I read the same article this morning. How do you know its ATM doing the sponsoring here? Could be from anyone.

[dobby41]

I read the same article this morning. How do you know its ATM doing the sponsoring here? Could be from anyone.

I didn't say they did but someone did.
So not 'news' as such.

[minimoke]

Haha sometimes it is better that they stay at home. As much fun sitting next to a family with screaming kids. Ask friends of yours who have worked in the hospitality sector, it will open your eyes. 

There are of places that offer food for those intolerant people. Please go to those places and don’t ask other places to change their menu. Most genuine intolerant people do understand I don't go to QSR's so avoid the screaming kids. (I wasnt asking for the menu to be changed - just 2 simple letters to be added. Just like adding "A2" makes it a lot easier for consumer choice)

[Sideshow Bob]

I read the same article this morning. How do you know its ATM doing the sponsoring here? Could be from anyone.

Says in the article that is sponsored by the University of Auckland Business School

[silu]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/a2-milk-wave-coming-woodford
A2 milk wave coming - Woodford
Agribusiness expert Keith Woodford says within the next five years China could be accepting only A2 milk products.

Speaking at Federated Farmers Dairy conference in Wellington this morning, Woodford, a retired agribusiness professr, says the push for A2 milk won’t come from the Chinese Government but consumers.

He told dairy leaders that A2 milk was the “largest selling milk” in Australian supermarkets.

“I know this because I’m part of the Australian A2 milk story,” he says.

Woodford says he recently spoke to 6500 “medical folks” in Australia about A2 milk.

“The demand for A2 milk is going to increase around the world,” he says.

“You ain’t seen nothing yet”

He says dairy companies around the world had been ignoring A2 milk until recently.

Fonterra announced a strategic partnership with the a2 Milk Company in February this year.

Over the years the co-op had downplayed the importance of A2 milk.

[Beagle]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/a2-milk-wave-coming-woodford
A2 milk wave coming - Woodford
Agribusiness expert Keith Woodford says within the next five years China could be accepting only A2 milk products.

Speaking at Federated Farmers Dairy conference in Wellington this morning, Woodford, a retired agribusiness professr, says the push for A2 milk won’t come from the Chinese Government but consumers.

He told dairy leaders that A2 milk was the “largest selling milk” in Australian supermarkets.

“I know this because I’m part of the Australian A2 milk story,” he says.

Woodford says he recently spoke to 6500 “medical folks” in Australia about A2 milk.

“The demand for A2 milk is going to increase around the world,” he says.

“You ain’t seen nothing yet”

He says dairy companies around the world had been ignoring A2 milk until recently.

Fonterra announced a strategic partnership with the a2 Milk Company in February this year.

Over the years the co-op had downplayed the importance of A2 milk.

Sounds good. Been a pretty rough few months since February when it hit ~ $14.60...be good to see it back above there sometime soon.

[Leftfield]

Sounds good. Been a pretty rough few months since February when it hit ~ $14.60...be good to see it back above there sometime soon.

Crikey! "Within the next 5 yrs China only accepting A2 milk..." !!! (according to Prof Woodford)
Better review your thoughts re investing your $1 mill inheritance! :t_up:

[nzsharetrade]

Crikey! "Within the next 5 yrs China only accepting A2 milk..." !!! (according to Prof Woodford)
Better review your thoughts re investing your $1 mill inheritance! :t_up:

what does it mean? the Chinese market only accepting A2 milk or the CN govt only accepting A2?

[Leftfield]

what does it mean? the Chinese market only accepting A2 milk or the CN govt only accepting A2?

Here's a link to the article (https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/a2-milk-wave-coming-woodford). I read it that A2 Demand will be driven by Asian consumers because it benefits their tummy's much more than other milk.

DYOR..... it's all highly speculative, and Prof Woodford is extremely bullish on A2, saying things like "ATM isn't a $10 billion company, it's a $100 billion company in the making." That said, he has not been wrong... yet!

[Ggcc]

Already have....not for ten years though;). Maybe off n on over 10 years
I just rung the local supermarket (countdown) and asked if they stocked A2 milk. They had almost sold out mentioned they have a standing back order as it is really popular and they always sell out fast. Apparently people are starting to demand it is what I hear from this..... I found that very interesting.

Oops tagged you in this seaweed I was not supposed to lol

[Leftfield]

I just rung the local supermarket (countdown) and asked if they stocked A2 milk. They had almost sold out mentioned they have a standing back order as it is really popular and they always sell out fast. Apparently people are starting to demand it is what I hear from this..... I found that very interesting.

Thanks for posting your research. IMO A2 fresh milk has still not been seriously marketed in NZ and is still being 'marketed' by Fresha Valley (see label pic below.)" Any NZ success as you note, seems very much by 'word of mouth'.

9771


No signs yet of any NZ Frontera marketing push nor use of the standard A2 labeling used elsewhere in the world.

I suspect any major NZ push will only come once Frontera take over and I guess this is likely in FY19. Clearly to date their priority has been the higher margins of IF and export to meet the insatiable demand from China.

[dobby41]

I just rung the local supermarket

or even 'rang' them.
'I have just rung' would work too.

[Ggcc]

or even 'rang' them.
'I have just rung' would work too.
Thank you grammar police.

[TideMan]

Thank you grammar police.
Yes, but grammar is quite important in giving us an impression of you.
When you say "I just rung", one infers that you are not well educated.
Using effect when it should be affect is another indicator.

[minimoke]

Yes, but grammar is quite important in giving us an impression of you.
When you say "I just rung", one infers that you are not well educated.
Using effect when it should be affect is another indicator.Its the uneducated who lack comprehension skills. It was obvious to anyone with half a brain what GPCC meant. Grammar police are not welcome at my place as I can neither nither spell, do arithmetic or use gramer correctly. (Disc Given I'm lacking a university education I count my slef as one of the un-educated and consequently grammer police really fvck me off))

Double disc - got my grumpy pants on today.

[dobby41]

Its the uneducated who lack comprehension skills. It was obvious to anyone with half a brain what GPCC meant. Grammar police are not welcome at my place as I can neither nither spell, do arithmetic or use gramer correctly. (Disc Given I'm lacking a university education I count my slef as one of the un-educated and consequently grammer police really fvck me off))

Double disc - got my grumpy pants on today.

Most browsers will sort the spelling bit for you (unless you get the wrong word entirely) - they give a little red squiggle under the word.
Rung verses rang just jars!
Just read it as you write it - it must sound wrong to you.

effect verses affect is much more subtle. The effect of the policy was to affect the poorer people.

Maybe you should go trouser-less today?

[minimoke]

Most browsers will sort the spelling bit for you (unless you get the wrong word entirely) - they give a little red squiggle under the word.
Rung verses rang just jars!
Just read it as you write it - it must sound wrong to you.

effect verses affect is much more subtle. The effect of the policy was to affect the poorer people.

Maybe you should go trouser-less today?You do know thats gone right over my head.

[minimoke]

And the competition starts to move into this space. Vietnam for example. https://www.foodbev.com/news/vietnams-th-milk-isolates-herd-to-start-producing-a2-milk/

[Ggcc]

Its the uneducated who lack comprehension skills. It was obvious to anyone with half a brain what GPCC meant. Grammar police are not welcome at my place as I can neither nither spell, do arithmetic or use gramer correctly. (Disc Given I'm lacking a university education I count my slef as one of the un-educated and consequently grammer police really fvck me off))

Double disc - got my grumpy pants on today.
Thank you and could not agree more. It is usually the (too well) educated that believe that people appreciate their input about grammar. Unless I forgot the memo we are not in an English class here....... Please refrain from trying to look too educated in grammar, as it makes you out to look like the fool.

Now back to A2 please

[dobby41]

Now back to A2 please
We were back to A2 before you got in again.

[longy]

We were back to A2 before you got in again.

Sure... But may I please have one more comment on re English on this A2 thread? English isn't my first language in fact it is my third. I still find it is a minefield re its rules... However, I always welcome on being corrected by someone else but please remember folks.. It is not a "what" being corrected but always a "how". Thanks folks.

[visionary]

Does anyone have any information on what A2 is, plans or can do to secure its product and make it a unique offering?

[Sideshow Bob]

Does anyone have any information on what A2 is, plans or can do to secure its product and make it a unique offering?

Would suggest read the following as a starting point, to gain further understanding:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A2_milk
https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements

[visionary]

Would suggest read the following as a starting point, to gain further understanding:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A2_milk
https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements

Thank you sir, may your hair grow longer, curlier and your share gains grow at the same rapid pace. Enjoy your weekend, thank you for providing me with my Friday night hunt.

[MikeE]

When does A2 report their year end results? We all need an update 🤑

[couta1]

When does A2 report their year end results? We all need an update 螺 Late August. PS-We got our poorly worded half page update a while back.

[visionary]

Sideshow Bob, I have read through the information you provided, some of which I knew about (I had done quite a lot of reading alongside "the numbers" and am not surprised that they have a "suite of patents and trademarks" to protect their product and research, however I have noted comments from other posters on here that competition is ramping up abroad, I have noted specifically and predominantly from Nestle among others.

How can these international conglomerates identify and produce this product, are the A2 "suite" of protections insufficient?
I am also curious as to the actual patents held, as depending on where they are registered do they hold a shorter/longer life before generic competition can come into play?
I would be very interested to know what A2 has in store to protect their product once patents expire, if almost all Asian cows and a smaller percentage of western herds contain only A2 beta-casein protein.

I will do my own research, but if anyone knows the answers to these questions or has further reading for me to digest, I would be most grateful.

[peat]

i've said it before but I'll say it again
You cant patent A2 milk.

[Leftfield]

.....How can these international conglomerates identify and produce this product, are the A2 "suite" of protections insufficient?
I am also curious as to the actual patents held, as depending on where they are registered do they hold a shorter/longer life before generic competition can come into play? I would be very interested to know what A2 has in store to protect their product once patents expire, if almost all Asian cows and a smaller percentage of western herds contain only A2 beta-casein protein.


I'll give you a brief response and for the rest you need to DYOR.

In the early Howard Patterson days of A2 milk (long before I invested) there were tales of A2 being very litigious and righteous in its stance that people selling A1 milk (Frontera) were selling an allegedly unhealthy product. After the untimely and sad demise of Patterson, there was a change of management and a change of stance by A2 (I stress IMO.) ATM shifted from potentially indignant litigation to marketing A2 milk in Australia and then the UK as their priority. Along the way they established a suite of patents around herd selection and copyright use around the A2 logo etc.

The recent example of litigation re A1/A2 milk marketing in Australia, is to me is an example of ATM's pragmatic approach to its patent protection (the FY18 accounts will perhaps give us more of an idea of the nature of this settlement) In this litigation it seemed ATM got some protection and clarification of its claims which it subsequently used by modifying its logo and claims re "milk free of A1 protein' etc.

Some people expected instant litigation from ATM re Nestle's recent incursion into A2 IF in China. I suspect that ATM is biding its time, and will only take legal action once it has evidence of 'damage' etc. All this takes time. (Others will no doubt have other ideas re this...DOYR)

Going forward, it is obvious there will be competitors and others marketing A2 milk (just as there are other cola drinks crowding Coca Cola's space) These competitors can only grow the total market, and provide some healthy competition for ATM.

I'm not a fan of lawyers and long costly law cases, and although I am not privy to knowledge of ATM's suite of patents, I think their current strategy of concentrating on sales, marketing and building cash reserves will serve them well re any future litigation. ATM will only fight battles when it suits them and when they are confident that they can win.

One only needs to look at the protracted costly cases surrounding Samsung and Apple, to see that ATM's current pragmatic approach is very wise.

[Ggcc]

i've said it before but I'll say it again
You cant patent A2 milk.
I believe you can’t patent “this milk contains A2 protein”, but you can patent the logo of A2 and possibly the name. Let’s see what happens when someone does use A2 as their brand...... Atwo was used so even Nestle don’t dare try....... Yet

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320295
Very positive news

[suse]

could be tempted to dip my toes back in again today...

[NZSilver]

Yes potentially it could be a better margin for a2m.

[Ggcc]

could be tempted to dip my toes back in again today...
I hope you did

[winner69]

A 22 bagger in 3 years for Aussies (since listing over there)

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/7-key-decisions-on-a2-milk-s-road-to-success

[couta1]

could be tempted to dip my toes back in again today... If it hadn't been for this news, you would have got some around the low $11 mark, this stock needs regular news to prop the price up.

[winner69]

If it hadn't been for this news, you would have got some at the low $11 mark, this stock needs regular news to prop the price up.

...regular good news Couts .....not like that ‘bad’ announcement a while ago

[couta1]

...regular good news Couts .....not like that ‘bad’ announcement a while ago Oh yeah, my bad. PS-We need to hit 920 mill at year end to keep the price where it is now, closer to 900 mill and it will get hammered.PPS-Probably be about 950 mill so no worries aye.

[NZSilver]

Oh yeah, my bad. PS-We need to hit 920 mill at year end to keep the price where it is now, closer to 900 mill and it will get hammered.PPS-Probably be about 950 mill so no worries aye.

I'm completely with you, I think people are expecting 920 million at least, anything less and and we will see prices go down. I have calculated based on historical comparisons between quarters they could potentially hit 947 million (basically 950), however I would have expected a trading update by now, and surely the update today would have been a good chance to release a revised forecast if there was one to be had. So going on the lack of updates, I think we are likely to see somewhere between that 900-920 mark, which will maintain the current share price between 10.50-11.50. However there are more macro issues currently developing around the world so potentially we will see downward pressure over the next few months.

[Nasi Goreng]

Well based on the update 6-7 weeks ago, you have got to be expecting between 900-920M. What are the market rules here? If revenue were to be say 895M or 925M, would ATM need to provide an update?

[Ggcc]

I agree. I am expecting just what the company said they would achieve in regards to their turnover. If it would be above that figure I would be pleasantly surprised.

[tipsy]

Well based on the update 6-7 weeks ago, you have got to be expecting between 900-920M. What are the market rules here? If revenue were to be say 895M or 925M, would ATM need to provide an update?

Yes.

Any known material information must be released immediately to the NZX.

The following information is likely to be Material Information under listing rule 10.1.1:

- a change in the issuers financial forecast or expectation

[winner69]

Yes.

Any known material information must be released immediately to the NZX.

The following information is likely to be Material Information under listing rule 10.1.1:

- a change in the issuers financial forecast or expectation


“Material information” means information in relation to an issuer that:

• a reasonable person would expect, if it were generally available to the market, to have a material effect on the price of the issuer’s quoted securities


Then you get into the definition of a reasonable person

I would hazard a guess that in such matters many on here are ‘unreasonable’ if you get the gist of what I’m saying .....like being impatient and almost wanting weekly updates.

One guideline out there about nateriality is if earnings are likely to be 10% to 15% different from guidance / market expectations (consensus forecasts)

[Beagle]

FWIW anything greater than a 10% variance from forecast is generally something that is considered to be "material" but to confuse things one could easily take one of two views regarding the full year forecast of $900 - $920m. Is that 10% variance around the annual forecast, i.e. a variance one way or the other of $90m plus or a 10% variance around the current quarter forecast seeing as we already know what the nine months sales are ? I think its the latter but the strict interpretation of NZX rules could be the former so I think that's all about as clear as mud. We'll all know soon enough late next month.

[Timesurfer]

Interestingly, I was at a Fonterra presentation yesterday.
I asked where they sat with the whole A2 milk thing.
After recently getting their fingers somewhat burnt over the "organic milk" fad they are sitting on their hands being cautious with the A2 fad.
Currently they believe it is and will remain a niche market. No doubt time will tell.

[dobby41]

Interestingly, I was at a Fonterra presentation yesterday.
I asked where they sat with the whole A2 milk thing.
After recently getting their fingers somewhat burnt over the "organic milk" fad they are sitting on their hands being cautious with the A2 fad.
Currently they believe it is and will remain a niche market. No doubt time will tell.

It would be interesting to know what % of people care.
I know I don't. I'd drink A2 if it was cheaper than other milk but don't believe there are any health benefits in it for me.
So I agree with Fonterra that it is a niche market but it isn't a trivial market and one that is probably worth pursuing.

[t.rexjr]

Interestingly, I was at a Fonterra presentation yesterday.
I asked where they sat with the whole A2 milk thing.
After recently getting their fingers somewhat burnt over the "organic milk" fad they are sitting on their hands being cautious with the A2 fad.
Currently they believe it is and will remain a niche market. No doubt time will tell.

They have to say that though don't they...

[Filthy]

I'd drink A2 if it was cheaper than other milk

in London, A2 was about twice the price as normal milk BUT they regularly ran 2-for-1 or half-price specials.
A2 was always stocked in the larger supermarkets i.e. waitrose, morrisons, tescos (but not in the smaller city metros) and because it was only allocated a comparatively-small shelf space, it would often sell out before we could get any.

we did find a way around that though, by buying it with our bulk groceries online ('as you do' when living in such a big-city). this was done through Ocado (which ran a great online system OCDO:LON) and because it was part of our standard default order, we would often end up buying it even if it was not running a special. I would say they haven't even scratched the surface of the UK market yet, and that's before they even start moving into different products lines..... I could not find any IF being stocked anywhere while I was living there (assume they weren't producing any). I bought into the A2 story as soon as it starting turning up on shelves in the UK - hopefully A2 can continue to leverage other markets and products rather than being overly dependent on the China IF scene.

the missus is back to using almond milk now we have returned to NZ...

[Beagle]

They have to say that though don't they...

Exactly !!

[dobby41]

in London, A2 was about twice the price as normal milk BUT they regularly ran 2-for-1 or half-price specials.
A2 was always stocked in the larger supermarkets i.e. waitrose, morrisons, tescos (but not in the smaller city metros) and because it was only allocated a comparatively-small shelf space, it would often sell out before we could get any.

we did find a way around that though, by buying it with our bulk groceries online ('as you do' when living in such a big-city). this was done through Ocado (which ran a great online system OCDO:LON) and because it was part of our standard default order, we would often end up buying it even if it was not running a special. I would say they haven't even scratched the surface of the UK market yet, and that's before they even start moving into different products lines..... I could not find any IF being stocked anywhere while I was living there (assume they weren't producing any). I bought into the A2 story as soon as it starting turning up on shelves in the UK - hopefully A2 can continue to leverage other markets and products rather than being overly dependent on the China IF scene.

the missus is back to using almond milk now we have returned to NZ...
None of what you have said indicates that it is more than a niche market.
If people don't see a value in it they won't pay more.
Sure, they run out but I suspect the volumes would still be far less than 'normal' milk - a fraction really.

It's been suggested that in the not to distant future A2 protein milk will predominate (due to type of cows etc) - if and when that happens ATMs edge will go out the window.

[Filthy]

None of what you have said indicates that it is more than a niche market.
If people don't see a value in it they won't pay more.
Sure, they run out but I suspect the volumes would still be far less than 'normal' milk - a fraction really.

It's been suggested that in the not to distant future A2 protein milk will predominate (due to type of cows etc) - if and when that happens ATMs edge will go out the window.

just giving you the benefit of what I saw and experienced overseas, nothing more. make of it what you will.

[winner69]

FWIW anything greater than a 10% variance from forecast is generally something that is considered to be "material" but to confuse things one could easily take one of two views regarding the full year forecast of $900 - $920m. Is that 10% variance around the annual forecast, i.e. a variance one way or the other of $90m plus or a 10% variance around the current quarter forecast seeing as we already know what the nine months sales are ? I think its the latter but the strict interpretation of NZX rules could be the former so I think that's all about as clear as mud. We'll all know soon enough late next month.

I reckon they only need to disclose anything (material) if FY earnings are likely to come in more than 10% higher or lower than consensus $190m.

Past guidance has been a revenue number, comment on margin and an idea what marketing expenses are likely to be - they’ve left it up to analysts to come up with a earnings number and by not making any comment about the $190m they have sort of signaled they are happy with that

Anyway ...that’s what this ‘reasonable’ person reckons what material or not.

But then they might want to give the share price a boost and come out and say something like revenues will be $950m plus ......

[winner69]

If it hadn't been for this news, you would have got some around the low $11 mark, this stock needs regular news to prop the price up.

No news today.couts ....and share price down.

A bit ominious

[Timesurfer]

They have to say that though don't they...

For the record I am not holding shares in any milk producers so not trying to influence anyone either way.

The Fonterra rep did say that they are keeping an eye on F2 and should they see a market worth exploiting they are in a position to do so - even if that is just supplying other companies with their A2 compliant herds.

[Chanchay]

No news today.couts ....and share price down.

A bit ominious

The news was the price of dairy dropped 5pc at the last auction. Although A2 is premium, I think the drop in solids is still indicative of the demand for milk protein in general.

[Beagle]

No news today.couts ....and share price down.

A bit ominious

Its interesting that Synlait and ATM have been pacing each others SP in recent times and yet have a look at Synlait's chart and ATM's chart and you tell me which one from a TA perspective looks dramatically better...and then there's the much lower PE for Synlait as well. I know their fortunes are inextricably related but nonetheless there are considerable differences. That said I now own more ATM than Synlait although I am presently scratching my head wondering if this is really all that clever...

Then one looks at how Ballamies SP has been absolutely smashed in recent months on the ASX and the picture gets even murkier...but no worries I'll probably have some new insight overnight and everything will be alright in the morning...

[Leftfield]

Its interesting that Synlait and ATM have been pacing each others SP in recent times and yet have a look at Synlait's chart and ATM's chart and you tell me which one from a TA perspective looks dramatically better...and then there's the much lower PE for Synlait as well. I know their fortunes are inextricably related but nonetheless there are considerable differences. That said I now own more ATM than Synlait although I am presently scratching my head wondering if this is really all that clever...


Mmm interesting. Both are good companies to have in yr portfolio.

While the recent SML SP chart may look better from a TA perspective, when you compare 2yr historical SP performance as per the following chart, ATM has performed about 350% better than SML

9789

What will happen in the future?

IMO SML's potential is more capital intensive and tied to its NZ production facilities. By comparison, ATM's less capital intensive potential is tied to multiple production facilities in NZ, AUS, UK, and USA with the benefits of any Frontera production as yet untapped. ATM seems to be disrupting traditional diary production/marketing methods.

Which share will perform best in the longer term? It's going to be interesting to see.

[Leftfield]

"Managing Director & CEO Succession

Further to the announcement advising of the appointment of Ms Jayne Hrdlicka
as Managing Director and CEO of The a2 Milk Company Limited, the Board of
Directors is now very pleased to confirm that Jayne will take up these roles
on Monday, 16 July 2018."
I'm guessing a trading update might be timed around this date - pure speculation tho!

[winner69]

Gave up counting after $4 million as to what her remuneration could be

And then noticed its in AUD as well

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atm.nzx-320449/

[winner69]

"Managing Director & CEO Succession

Further to the announcement advising of the appointment of Ms Jayne Hrdlicka
as Managing Director and CEO of The a2 Milk Company Limited, the Board of
Directors is now very pleased to confirm that Jayne will take up these roles
on Monday, 16 July 2018."
I'm guessing a trading update might be timed around this date - pure speculation tho!




as a new CEO she might want to get rid of all the ghosts (write offs) and start with a clean slate ...ha ha


Isn't that how things work

[whatsup]

as a new CEO she might want to get rid of all the ghosts (write offs) and start with a clean slate ...ha ha


Isn't that how things work

which are ?

[winner69]

which are ?

Maybe nothing but one never knows

Seems to be the standard reply when a new CEO comes on board ...often wipe the slate clean and all that

[Leftfield]

as a new CEO she might want to get rid of all the ghosts (write offs) and start with a clean slate ...ha ha Isn't that how things work

Pretty cynical pessimistic view Winner (not like you at all)

Given that the current CEO is remaining to work along the new CEO for the next 6 months, (and given his past exemplary management) I would be more optimistic and think ATM will be ready to make quite a few more positive market updates over the transition period.

[MikeE]

What does everyone see the share price at for this stock in 18 months?

[Lego_Man]

What does everyone see the share price at for this stock in 18 months?

One hundred dollars

[Ggcc]

What does everyone see the share price at for this stock in 18 months? It all depends on the up and coming report on the future turnover. Too early to say. $16-18 if positive. Much lower if things don’t go to plan.........

[Beagle]

Mmm interesting. Both are good companies to have in yr portfolio.

While the recent SML SP chart may look better from a TA perspective, when you compare 2yr historical SP performance as per the following chart, ATM has performed about 350% better than SML

9789

What will happen in the future?

IMO SML's potential is more capital intensive and tied to its NZ production facilities. By comparison, ATM's less capital intensive potential is tied to multiple production facilities in NZ, AUS, UK, and USA with the benefits of any Frontera production as yet untapped. ATM seems to be disrupting traditional diary production/marketing methods.

Which share will perform best in the longer term? It's going to be interesting to see.

Good post. Interesting to note BAL is now trading well below where it was in January 2016.

[Beagle]

What does everyone see the share price at for this stock in 18 months?

Between $5 and $50 depending on how they grow over the next 18 months. Its been a 22 bagger since listing in Australia in 2014 so a lot of good news is already priced in. Disc: Holding a modest stake as part of a well diversified portfolio.

[hardt]

Don't know too much about Jayne, apart from the fact I cant pronounce her last name Hrdlicka ( herd licker/herd icker )

But I do know she was a Senior partner of Bain & Company Sydney for 13 years ( 1997 - 2010 )

Bain & Company have been pinned to the China/Aus loveboat for several years now.
http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/dealing-with-two-speed-china.aspx
http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/the-hottest-brand-in-china-is-australia.aspx
http://www.bain.com/Images/WEF_Future_Consumption_in_Fast-Moving_Consumer_Markets.PDF
http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/keeping-up-with-chinas-shoppers-at-two-speeds.aspx
(http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/keeping-up-with-chinas-shoppers-at-two-speeds.aspx)
I am more than pleased with her leading A2 towards being an absolute behemoth... kept 50% of my portfolio in A2 for now.

[Leftfield]

Good post. Interesting to note BAL is now trading well below where it was in January 2016.

I don't get the BAL comparison?

About 3-4 yrs ago when BAL got into inventory problems ATM got hammered also. At that time I thought the ATM/BAL comparison was not logical and bought more ATM on the dip. Sure enough, ATM was subsequently shown to have no inventory problems and the SP climbed back and since then has left BAL in the dust.

IMO ATM a much better managed company than BAL and more internationally diverse. Here's the last 3 yrs for you to compare. DYOR.

9790

[silu]

Don't know too much about Jayne, apart from the fact I cant pronounce her last name Hrdlicka ( herd licker/herd icker )


In the old country you would pronounce it Hrdlitschka (https://forvo.com/word/hrdli%C4%8Dka/) in case anyone is interested.

[RupertBear]

[QUOTE=hardt;720733]Don't know too much about Jayne, apart from the fact I cant pronounce her last name Hrdlicka ( herd licker/herd icker )

Classic! Appeals to my dreadful sense of humour :lol::lol::lol:

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/320449/282325.pdf
Wouldn't it be interesting to know what the hurdles are in terms of what the board set as annual diluted EPS growth to achieve vesting of long term incentives.

Now on that topic (and I am certainly not putting myself out there as an expert) it would appear that Goeff Babbage's long term incentives that mature may cause a few waves with the expense side of the ledger in the future. As I understand it, and I could well be wrong, the company has to record as a salary expense the cost of his LTI as they vest. The problem is he was issued shares and LTI's when the SP was vastly lower than the current price so any need by the company to buy those huge numbers of shares on market to meet those LTI vesting requirement is going to get VERY expensive ! That's how I read it anyway. LTI's made up 3.6% of the market cap when I last looked at this so depending on the issue terms, and spread over a number of years this still looks very material over the years ahead. I guess it all depends upon how strongly they keep growing as to whether this makes a big hole in future years profits or not...


Got to love RYM that have none of these hugely lucrative long term incentive plans for their management...just saying.

[forest]

Got to love RYM that have none of these hugely lucrative long term incentive plans for their management...just saying

Thats right Roger,

Also RYM directors wont be distracted when they meet with organising and administrating incentive plans. RYM directors can concentrate on whats important. Spend there time to plan the long term well being of the company, that works for the benefit of the residence, employees and share holders.

[Beagle]

Its just good old fashioned management greed...problem is its getting entrenched in the system and attracting the right senior staff without it is getting harder.
Why would people paid $A1.5m need an incentive to perform anyway ? The fact they have short term incentives and long term incentives (LTI's) grinds my gears more than just a bit.

Putting some numbers around the cost of previous long term incentives issued by ATM, the problem is we have a > 20 bagger over the last few years so almost all of the 3.6% of shares to be issued is going to amount to a management incentive cost and recorded as an expense item in the year in which the LTI's vest as I read it. 3.6% of market cap is just on $300m. That's going on the expense ledger as management costs as and when these LTI's vest over the next few years and will make quite an impact...well that's my read of the situation anyway and one of the reasons I only have a moderate stake in this company. Anyone else think a $100m extra expense next year to meet previous LTI's will make a difference to FY19's profit result ?

Geoff has done a fine job and is going to retire an extremely wealthy man...just beware of where this is coming from...

[Sideshow Bob]

Incentive scheme are typically hard to get right - and notorious for incentivizing the wrong behavior to maximize the reward, and not maximizing shareholder wealth. The longer the more difficult. Given the huge rise in shareprice, many A2 shareholders will probably be quite relaxed at this (but concerned on Beagle's observations on potential liability on Geoffreys LT incentives).

Often incentives are based on things like share price or profit, but there are so many factors outside of the CEO's influence that can work either way - or otherwise things difficult to measure.

A few million bucks per year should buy you someone that doesn't need motivation through an incentive and should be enough of a self-starter. If they believe in the company and what they are doing then they should have enough leftover after the weekly bills to buy a few shares, perhaps through a staff scheme to encourage all levels of staff - not just top dog or the elite few.

[Beagle]

I could have this wrong so suggest people DYOR. Pages 86 and 87 of the 2017 annual report is where you will find the details. It has been kindly pointed out to me by PM that probably there is no issue with partly paid shares previously issued at 63 cents to Geoff, (although clearly he will exercise them and it will be somewhat dilutive to future EPS) but its the options and the performance share rights that appear to confer a future obligation in terms of expense upon the company. Its all about as clear as the mud at a Rotorua hot pool though. Costs recorded last year of previous LTI schemes was about $2.5m, just on $3m the year before that. I expect that annual cost to head north at a very rapid rate. That said as long as the company keeps growing strongly it probably doesn't matter and Geoff deserves a very comfortable retirement, I have no issue with that but party paid shares, share options and performance rights, (3 different classes of long term incentive) as well as the usual short term incentive (AKA annual salary bonus) on top of an already lucrative salary package does make this hound scratch his head a bit.

I guess at least its only as a total,3.6% of market cap and its the benefits vest over quite some years and Geoff has helped create an awful lot of value for shareholders...
Wonder if the new CEO will do as good ????

[Leftfield]

Got to love RYM that have none of these hugely lucrative long term incentive plans for their management...just saying.

I'm from the "pay peanuts - you get monkey's" school of thought and am not sure the RYM comparison is valid.

ATM's SP has grown approx 1700% more than RYM (excl dividends) over the last 5 yrs. Besides, AFR reports that Jane is actually being paid less at ATM than she was at Qantas.

"The former Bain consultant's fixed contract is for $1.5 million a year. Her short-term incentive package is worth the same (with another 20 per cent on top of that at the board's discretion for "Jayne's personal performance"). And her long-term incentives in her first year of employment are performance rights equivalent to 175 per cent of her base salary.

Add up every potential source of remuneration and if she hits all her targets, she could be making $6.7 million in her first year. Which is very nice, though doesn't quite match her $8.1 million package in FY17 at Qantas." (Source AFR)

For those wanting more info on Jane, there is a Ted Talk which features her and is well worth watching.

[dobby41]

I'm from the "pay peanuts - you get monkey's" school of thought and am not sure the RYM comparison is valid.

ATM's SP has grown approx 1700% more than RYM (excl dividends) over the last 5 yrs. Besides, AFR reports that Jane is actually being paid less at ATM than she was at Qantas.
I'm not sure any comparison between ATM and RYM is valid - they are in completely different markets.

[couta1]

I hate all excessive Troughing no matter which company.

[winner69]

I hate all excessive Troughing no matter which company.

Labour in Australia have a good idea ....companies that pay excessive senior management salaries should get lumbered with a higher company tax rate than more reasonable companies

I’ve suggested that to our man Grant

[couta1]

Labour in Australia have a good idea ....companies that pay excessive senior management salaries should get lumbered with a higher company tax rate than more reasonable companies

I’ve suggested that to our man Grant We could always organise a March to Parliament mate, carrying placards printed "Say No to Troughers" with offending companies also mentioned. PS-I reckon Shane Jones would be all in on that one.

[Sideshow Bob]

We could always organise a March to Parliament mate, carrying placards printed "Say No to Troughers" with offending companies also mentioned. PS-I reckon Shane Jones would be all in on that one.

Especially if you said Air NZ or The Warehouse!

[winner69]

So CEO probably earning 170 times or more the lowest paid employee

[bull....]

alot of the rise in price lately was caused by some weak shorters covering , i see bal has crashed and goldmans say a2 is discounting product

[couta1]

alot of the rise in price lately was caused by some weak shorters covering , i see bal has crashed and goldmans say a2 is discounting product I could never understand why BAL went to $23, that's ludicrous, haha re Goldman's, they must want to mop up some more cheap shares. PS-Shorts were 28% of total volume yesterday so building.

[Beagle]

I could never understand why BAL went to $23, that's ludicrous, haha re Goldman's, they must want to mop up some more cheap shares. PS-Shorts were 28% of total volume yesterday so building.

Agreed 100%...that was some crazy momentum they were carrying at that time. Anyway folks I am quite likely to have the wrong end of the stick with this incentive program stuff and how the cost of all the troughing gets expensed...I am sure the expensing of all these entitlements is probably just as creative as the entitlements themselves...being just a simple suburban bean counting hound I have no experience with creating or costing the gold plated trough's these executives feed from. That's well and truly above my pay grade...so as you were, I am sure Geoff has earned it and we all wish him well in his retirement.

[winner69]

Not just Babich Mr Beagle

I felt sorry for the Chief Marketing Office who recently had to fork out $891,000 for 1,250,000 shares. With another lot she got it looks like she’s sitting on over $30,000,000 worth of shares at the moment as (all from the incentive schemes)

Think numbers are about right but could be completely wrong.

[Jay]

How do you sign up for a job like that!:eek2:

[couta1]

A2M up a couple of % but BAL really smoking it and up by 10%, big balls traders would be making a killing, too scary for me that one.

[sb9]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/get-savvy-with-a2

More from the respected Keith...

Also, Danone seem to be having some quality issues with their IF brand Aptamil..

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/health/danone-aptamil-baby-formula-illness-intl/index.html

[JoeGrogan]

alot of the rise in price lately was caused by some weak shorters covering , i see bal has crashed and goldmans say a2 is discounting product

Lol Goldman gave SML a 6.80 price target after the recent half year results... still don't know why anyone even listens to 'analysts'.

[couta1]

Lol Goldman gave SML a 6.80 price target after the recent half year results... still don't know why anyone even listens to 'analysts'. Exactly, most of them run with hares and hunt with the hounds, your Gutometer is the best analyst you could ever listen to.

[hardt]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320723

Revenue 922
Estimated EBITDA 276.6 ( 30% ebitda to sales )

Beat analysts expectations, inline with the rest.

[Leftfield]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320723

Revenue 922. Estimated EBITDA 276.6 ( 30% ebitda to sales ) Beat analysts expectations, inline with the rest.

A bit lower sales than I expected, but the margin is better than I expected. Est EPS of .26c and .30c for FY19. Be interesting to see what the market thinks of it, forward forecast gives little away and cools expectations IMO.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320723

Revenue 922
Estimated EBITDA 276.6 ( 30% ebitda to sales )

Beat analysts expectations, inline with the rest.

Never mind the expected higher marketing costs, the increasing overhead and the dear new CEO ... all good. They say you need to spend a buck to make a buck ;); No worries.

[winner69]

A bit lower sales than I expected, but the margin is better than I expected. Est EPS of 37.8c? Be interesting to see what the market thinks of it, forward forecast gives little away and cools expectations IMO.

EPS will be 26/27 cents (did you forget about tax.)

So

[hardt]

Never mind the expected higher marketing costs, the increasing overhead and the dear new CEO ... all good. They say you need to spend a buck to make a buck ;); No worries.

Since when are overheads going to remain static for a growing consumer goods business expanding through physical locations in China... costs remaining inline with revenues...

Fonterra deal introducing many new products to market will require significant marketing expenditure... they should have around half a billion $$$ on hand right now as well.

A2 have been conservatively managing expectations since I can remember, the last dip was a result of some hype and not the company, although explained through label transitioning it will need to be confirmed later this year.


The lower than expected revenue guidance has been attributed to A2M's move to both new CFDA registered Chinese and English labelled packaging. Due to this transition, A2M has intentionally been running down stock levels so that distributors aren't left with the old packaging and to limit the chance of discounting (A2M’s premium status is the key to its success). Importantly, management said that Nestle's new A2 infant formula (called Atwo), while only early, has had no noticeable impact on its sales.




No one really listens to the evangelical holders anyway...

[couta1]

Will be interesting how the market reacts to this update, 922 mill(Unaudited) I thought they would do better than this to be honest. A bit of a nothing update IMO.

[winner69]

Will be interesting how the market reacts to this update, 922 mill(Unaudited) I thought they would do better than this to be honest. A bit of a nothing update IMO.

Better than bad news Couts

Remember the underpromise over delivery stuff hardt reminds us about

Next years growth will be?

[silu]

A bit disappointed with $922mil so interested to what the market is deciding on. But even then the shares I have left will stay with me for a long time or until something dramatic changes. Won't sell just because of some millions off my own assumptions.

[BlackPeter]

Since when are overheads going to remain static for a growing consumer goods business expanding through physical locations in China... costs remaining inline with revenues...


that's not what I read. From their announcement:


- marketing expenditure, as a percentage of sales, higher than FY2018

best wishes,

BP

[bull....]

just woke from my catnap and was shocked with this news .... bad and revenue growth was acheived from discounting as well according to goldmans.

[hardt]

that's not what I read. From their announcement:



best wishes,

BP

I read that bit too, overheads include more than just marketing.

[winner69]

just woke from my catnap and was shocked with this news .... bad and revenue growth was acheived from discounting as well according to goldmans.

Goldmans have been very bullish for a while

They forecast F19 growth of 33% (last I saw) ......hmmm

Think they would know with the number of times A2 guys been seen in the lift heading up to Goldmans offices.

[bull....]

be interesting if the price collaspses today , the fact it has struggled to get over $12 resistance and has been in a downtrend since the highs also the slight rise of late has coincided with some light short covering. be interesting to see .... fill the gap lol

[bull....]

Goldmans have been very bullish for a while

They forecast F19 growth of 33% (last I saw) ......hmmm

Think they would know with the number of times A2 guys been seen in the lift heading up to Goldmans offices.

goldmans say in this article a2 were discounting product so if that the case the 922m is fake news it was lower in reality

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/75490-bellamy's-falls-on-china-delay-fears.html

[winner69]

goldmans say in this article a2 were discounting product so if that the case the 922m is fake news it was lower in reality

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/75490-bellamy's-falls-on-china-delay-fears.html

The good ole year end clearance sale trick to reach targets eh ........hmmm

[MikeE]

What was the revenue guidance or estimate that were given a few months back for full year revenue?

[Ggcc]

The good ole year end clearance sale trick to reach targets eh ........hmmm
I thought that harbour asset management said they held stock back???? I thought discounting excess stock would have been old stock before re-labelling.......

[Muppett]

What was the revenue guidance or estimate that were given a few months back for full year revenue?
$900-$920m

[MikeE]

Great outcome then..

[Leftfield]

EPS will be 26/27 cents (did you forget about tax.)

So

Thanks Winner...... duly corrected ( I was expecting 25c EPS).

[bull....]

Great outcome then..

hardly the price is down

[Muppett]

hardly the price is down

It is down but on very small volume.

$922m was better than the top end of the range, so really a neutral to ok result.

Trouble is now we have to wait 4 months or so for another update before the share price moves, hopefully upwards.

[couta1]

Before the last update, I reckon the market was expecting about 950 mill for the year so 922 mill confirmation still quite light hence that big drop in the SP at the time. SP probably about right based on 922 mill, certainly no $15 in sight for quite a while yet.

[bull....]

have to wait for aus to open as they set the price for a2

[Muppett]

have to wait for aus to open as they set the price for a2
True.
The robots will drive this down at mid-day, then its wait and see............?

[bull....]

True.
The robots will drive this down at mid-day, then its wait and see............?

true ive set my robot to sell sell sell .... lol just kidding

[Muppett]

true ive set my robot to sell sell sell .... lol just kidding

It would help if all the Mum's and Dad's cancelled their orders. Then lets see what happens.
I mean there is someone at present wanting to sell 56 shares at $11.60.
FFS........56 shares.......why bother?

[bull....]

think one thing many of you have missed was ron mark speech on defence where he said china is a threat , hence backed up by winston after china demanded it be taken back.

think trade wars

[sb9]

I wouldn't expect any great movement up or down based on today's announcement. A lot of that in today's news is pretty much factored into current price. Only bit of extra information relating to margin % to sales.

I expect the sp to be range bound between 10-12 until next month when they report full results at which time depending on the commentary price will be reset.

[BlackPeter]

think one thing many of you have missed was ron mark speech on defence where he said china is a threat , hence backed up by winston after china demanded it be taken back.

think trade wars

To make matters worse - baby Don does not care about us and will only drink American milk from American workers polluted by American chemicals. Better forget about this market either.

[Filthy]

It would help if all the Mum's and Dad's cancelled their orders. Then lets see what happens.
I mean there is someone at present wanting to sell 56 shares at $11.60.
FFS........56 shares.......why bother?

it will just be the tail end of a partial-trade

[winner69]

I wouldn't expect any great movement up or down based on today's announcement. A lot of that in today's news is pretty much factored into current price. Only bit of extra information relating to margin % to sales.

I expect the sp to be range bound between 10-12 until next month when they report full results at which time depending on the commentary price will be reset.

Price will be reset

Thinking this time next year

Using Goldmans +33% growth and consistent ebitda margins and a PE of 30 gives $10.50 (in a years time)

Just thinking out aloud

[mfd]

To make matters worse - baby Don does not care about us and will only drink American milk from American workers polluted by American chemicals. Better forget about this market either.

I believe that A2 milk sold in the USA is produced in the USA.

[Beagle]

Guidance of $900 to $920m suggested $910 at the mid point so a significant beat for this quarter at $922, a $12m increase for this quarter above the mid point.
Discounting referred to by Goldman's probably to clear the last of the old labelled product.
"Have teacup..some will make try and make storm". Long term holder.

[sb9]

Guidance of $900 to $920m suggested $910 at the mid point so a significant beat for this quarter at $922, a $12m increase for this quarter above the mid point.
Discounting referred to by Goldman's probably to clear the last of the old labelled product.
"Have teacup..some will make try and make storm". Long term holder.

Yes, Geoff passing on the baton to Jayne on level playing field and its upto new leader to drive the company forward.

[tipsy]

Guidance of $900 to $920m suggested $910 at the mid point so a significant beat for this quarter at $922, a $12m increase for this quarter above the mid point.
Discounting referred to by Goldman's probably to clear the last of the old labelled product.
"Have teacup..some will make try and make storm". Long term holder.

My thoughts exactly. It seems rather strange some are calling this 'shocking' when guidance was given 2 months back.

[bull....]

My thoughts exactly. It seems rather strange some are calling this 'shocking' when guidance was given 2 months back.

if a company has to meet revenue by discounting the roosters will come home to the chickens sooner or later

[Sideshow Bob]

if a company has to meet revenue by discounting the roosters will come home to the chickens sooner or later

Well the margin in terms of overall sales is still there. If the big TMall etc sales are as big as they say, then a fair proportion would go through at a discounted price.

12pm is when the real action starts.....

[sb9]

if a company has to meet revenue by discounting the roosters will come home to the chickens sooner or later

Nothing wrong with that strategy, any company involved in selling a product do resort to those methods especially when trying to get rid of unwanted stock, in this case old label IF product.

[Beagle]

if a company has to meet revenue by discounting the roosters will come home to the chickens sooner or later

I echo what sb9 has just said. As an example have you ever noticed that new cars dealers discount old stock before the facelifted model comes out ? Everyone wants the freshly "Gee Wiz" labelled stock. Welcome to the commercial world and reality of how things really work. Some people will try and conjure up nefarious theories from the depths of their imagination while others understand how retailers work.

[mfd]

if a company has to meet revenue by discounting the roosters will come home to the chickens sooner or later

They beat the low end of guidance by 22 million, they hardly dragged themselves over the line. No sign of discounting affecting the margins.

[winner69]

I echo what sb9 has just said. As an example have you ever noticed that new cars dealers discount old stock before the facelifted model comes out ? Everyone wants the freshly "Gee Wiz" labelled stock. Welcome to the commercial world and reality of how things really work. Some people will try and conjure up nefarious theories from the depths of their imagination while others understand how retailers work.

Jeez that ‘nefarious’ word again ...four times in two days

[bull....]

think your all assuming its old stock

[winner69]

They beat the low end of guidance by 22 million, they hardly dragged themselves over the line. No sign of discounting affecting the margins.

Sharechat news says - A2 disappointed investors with its May forecast when it said first-half gross margin of 49.8 percent was likely to carry through into the second half

Wonder what second half margins ended up being?

[sb9]

think your all assuming its old stock

How do you know its not?

[couta1]

It worries me that bull trusts Goldman's. Lol.

[bull....]

past experience shows if it drops hard in aus it bounces quick ... see if the same happens better than a slow grind down lol

[sb9]

30% margin on sales of nearly billion dollars, not sure anyone with a right mind would disagree with that kind of profitability.

[winner69]

We’ll be over 12 bucks by days end

[Sideshow Bob]

We’ll be over 12 bucks by days end

In Australia?

[sb9]

Sharechat news says - A2 disappointed investors with its May forecast when it said first-half gross margin of 49.8 percent was likely to carry through into the second half

Wonder what second half margins ended up being?

Another perspective as per NBR headline...

"A2 Milk beats guidance, operating profit nearly doubles"

[Leftfield]

30% margin on sales of nearly billion dollars, not sure anyone with a right mind would disagree with that kind of profitability.

It'll be 30% margin on $1.3 Billion sales in FY19!! ;)

[Beagle]

It'll be 30% margin on $1.3 Billion sales in FY19!! ;)

Woohoo !!!! They just did $262m for the last quarter against guidance of $250m (4.8% beat for the quarter against mid point of forecast for those that want to know the facts) so I'd say they're comfortably on their way to your target for FY19. http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/Trading on a forecast FY19 PE of 31.

[Dust]

FY2018 figures are ahead of analyst estimates, but some margin compression look set to kick in FY19 onwards which arent incorporated into alot of the analyst's models. Unfortunately mgmt's commentary dont really give any indication on the scale of these cost increases. Guessing market's just pricing in that uncertainty today.

[bull....]

just as we thought bounce at open folloowed by grind down

[Beagle]

FY2018 figures are ahead of analyst estimates, but some margin compression look set to kick in FY19 onwards which arent incorporated into alot of the analyst's models. Unfortunately mgmt's commentary dont really give any indication on the scale of these cost increases. Guessing market's just pricing in that uncertainty today.

Extract from press release
Notwithstanding the higher expenditure referred to above, the EBITDA to Sales ratio for FY2019 is assumed to be broadly consistent with the Company’s expectations for FY2018.


Press release speaks for itself on margins in my opinion. I guess its human nature that some people will try and interpret things their own way...

[winner69]

Woohoo !!!! They just did $262m for the last quarter against guidance of $250m (4.8% beat for the quarter against mid point of forecast for those that want to know the facts) so I'd say they're comfortably on their way to your target for FY19. http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/Trading on a forecast FY19 PE of 31.

You might say a ‘beat’ but a2 would say ‘broadly in line’ if they commented

[couta1]

We’ll be over 12 bucks by days end I want some of what you've been smoking. PS-The update today was pointless IMO.

[BlackPeter]

I want some of what you've been smoking. PS-The update today was pointless IMO.

Don't forget - there is still a gap to fill around $9.50 ...

[couta1]

Don't forget - there is still a gap to fill around $9.50 ... Trump could help with that gap.Lol.

[winner69]

I want some of what you've been smoking. PS-The update today was pointless IMO.

It was green when I posted that and going well

[couta1]

It was green when I posted that and going well This thing has a mind of it's own, I suppose just another standard day with a 46c price spread.

[bohemian]

I'm out finally, at least for a while. So it's bye bye ATM and hello FANGMAN. Good luck to holders.

[winner69]

Thanks Winner...... duly corrected ( I was expecting 25c EPS).


25 cents seems so insignificant relative to a $11 plus share price doesn't it

[Baa_Baa]

25 cents seems so insignificant relative to a $11 plus share price doesn't it

Market is forward looking, lucky it has such a strong telescope into the future and unbridled optimism at this PE ratio, so yes EPS will be pathetic unless E catches up with P, which holders might not want to dwell on how that might happen.

[Leftfield]

25 cents seems so insignificant relative to a $11 plus share price doesn't it

Mmmmm not quite.

If you look at some of the forward projections as posted by Beagle (http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/Trading) you will see that the market is pricing on a forward PE which looks at some of the following;

· Likely sales growth between 30 to 50% = $NZ 1.3 to 1.5 billion. Korea will begin pumping and Frontera will re-launch A2 Milk in NZ from Aug 18. I also expect considerable hype re new A2 milk products (diversifying away from IF and raw milk.) There may be further Asian expansion, possibly Japan and possible news of a strategic partnership there. USA and UK will continue strongly.
· Likely FY19 EPS 35c to 40c (NZD) Some say .50c!
· Mounting cash reserves $NZ 500 mill. Expect some announcements re this. Furure dividends ( Maybe .10c?) More likely IMO is an investment in another related company…. (or both!!)

Current price pretty fair IMO. Forward price of $15 by later this year still my target.

[bull....]

they will have to ramp up marketing spend way more as global competitors enter the space in china more forcefully also entering new markets will require way more spend also to compete against bigger competitors.
the only reason i would see the price gaining from here is on the back of the bull market just like most other shares.

[winner69]

If I had a spare $8 billion would I buy A2 today and expect say a 10%pa return for many years into the future?

I don’t think I would

Maybe there is a ‘greater fool’ who would pay $10 billion for A2 in the next year or two ...if I knew that I might pay $8 billion today

In saying this I still have my ATM shares ....obviously only looking out for a short to medium term return

[Beagle]

they will have to ramp up marketing spend way more as global competitors enter the space in china more forcefully also entering new markets will require way more spend also to compete against bigger competitors.
the only reason i would see the price gaining from here is on the back of the bull market just like most other shares.

The reason the SP will make further solid gains over time is perfectly obvious, its EPS Growth.

[winner69]

The reason the SP will make further solid gains over time is perfectly obvious, its EPS Growth.

EPS will grow ....but lower PE could see share price stay about the same

And we could even get a reversion to the mean ...that could be interesting eh Couts

[Beagle]

EPS will grow ....but lower PE could see share price stay about the same

And we could even get a reversion to the mean ...that could be interesting eh Couts

Or the PE could stay the same...not that difficult to find other companies on the NZX trading on higher multiples with lower growth than ATM, (FPH, POT, AIA e.t.c.).

[BlackPeter]

Or the PE could stay the same...not that difficult to find other companies on the NZX trading on higher multiples with lower growth than ATM, (FPH, POT, AIA e.t.c.).

Hmm - I do have a list of companies which I don't hold but intend to buy when we are leaving the next recession. FPH, POT and AIA are prominent contenders. So you think ATM belongs on this list as well?

[Beagle]

Hmm - I do have a list of companies which I don't hold but intend to buy when we are leaving the next recession. FPH, POT and AIA are prominent contenders. So you think ATM belongs on this list as well?


All of those companies to be fair have more defensive properties than ATM. Hard to get comparatives for ATM in their sector. I guess the relative PE of BAL is something to think about. My sense is the ATM SP is about fair and reasonable at the current level and its should move up in line with earnings growth over the next few years. For what its worth I have a 6% portfolio allocation and about 4% to Synlait. I think that's enough for me and am disinclined to add to either right at the minute.

[hardt]

nothings changed and there were no surprises... good result as per normal.

The theory that A2 will always land at the top of their guidance remains in tact and Analysts sales expectations were beaten.

They were effectively (not literally) given a few months to selldown all the old label product in China and can only introduce new label to the shelves from a certain date, there is no real option to simultaneously sell both labels on the shelves in the 9,100 Chinese Mother and Baby Stores that stock A2 IF. old labels do not meet new regulation requirements and there is a small window where both the new and old label can co-exist on shelves... but if you decide to sell both you risk selling new labels instead of old possibly leaving many millions of worthless inventory on hand.

a2 Platinum is now stocked in over 9,000 Mother & Baby stores in China (was 6,700 at 1H18 result).


Disc: own a lot of A2 and not selling anytime soon.
My partner is half Chinese with parents in China and sister ( a daigou ) in Australia
All of whom are heavily invested in A2M.

[bull....]

lets hammertime it

[Dust]

Could easily fall another 5-10%, next support around A$9.50. I expect some funds to start trimming weights in this. I better start raising some funds to buy the next dip.

[Leftfield]

lets hammertime it

Why not, specially if you are shorting or looking to add more to your portfolio at lower prices. (Lots of Bot manipulation today to support you.)

Meanwhile this article (https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/a2-expects-more-1b-2019-sales) provides another viewpoint. GLH I'm signing off to take a well earned holiday.

(Disc - Holding, but now 'freehold' :t_up:)

[Beagle]

Why not, specially if you are shorting or looking to add more to your portfolio at lower prices. (Lots of Bot manipulation today to support you.)

Meanwhile this article (https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/a2-expects-more-1b-2019-sales) provides another viewpoint. GLH I'm signing off to take a well earned holiday.

(Disc - Holding, but now 'freehold' :t_up:)

Average analyst forecast sales for FY19 is $1.238m so if they can do the $1.4b that Craigs are estimating we're going to have a very good year ahead as other brokers upgrade. Happy holiday :)
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

[couta1]

Another run of the mill day with a 44c spread, so erractic yet so consistent.

[couta1]

Average analyst forecast sales for FY19 is $1.238m so if they can do the $1.4b that Craigs are estimating we're going to have a very good year ahead as other brokers upgrade. Happy holiday :)
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/ All good excepting their average target price is a shabby $10.80NZ, they need to add $5 to that to be taken seriously.

[Ggcc]

A great article for the weekend.

https://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-the-rags-to-riches-tale-20180713-h12myu

[Sideshow Bob]

A great article for the weekend.

https://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-the-rags-to-riches-tale-20180713-h12myu

Thanks for sharing and a bloody good read!

I love the line "if there was a nuclear apocalypse then only 2 things would survive - cockroaches and the A2 milk company!"

[dreamcatcher]

GS Latest TP NZ$13.30

[winner69]

GS Latest TP NZ$13.30

That’s good ...but they have lowered it from previous one eh

Target $13.30 sort of implies $11.40 / $11.50 today

Wonder what their ‘formula’ for coming up with price targets is

[winner69]

Heading back to 10 something by looks of it

Suppose $10 is about fair value for now based on GS target of $13.30 after discounting the GS hype factor and considering it’s a target for a year out

[Sideshow Bob]

Heading back to 10 something by looks of it



It is currently down 11c for the day - not $1.11.

[moka]

Heading back to 10 something by looks of it

Suppose $10 is about fair value for now based on GS target of $13.30 after discounting the GS hype factor and considering it’s a target for a year out

I agree the trend is down. The chart for the last month shows lower highs and lower lows, so heading back to where it was in May. Closed at $10.87 on 31/05/18.

[Dust]

That’s good ...but they have lowered it from previous one eh

Target $13.30 sort of implies $11.40 / $11.50 today

Wonder what their ‘formula’ for coming up with price targets is

They use combnination of DCF & EV/EBITDA, multiples roughly inline with peers now.

I added a handful today for a medium-long term hold, probably gonna get abit f* if this tries to test the A$10 level but I wouldnt be surprised if this becomes a buyout target given the brand has built some notoriety overseas.

[bull....]

Heading back to 10 something by looks of it

Suppose $10 is about fair value for now based on GS target of $13.30 after discounting the GS hype factor and considering it’s a target for a year out

yes nice rounding top formation under 12 resistance looks berish to me

[bull....]

hammertime is coming i can feel it

[winner69]

hammertime is coming i can feel it

That’s good ...isn’t it

Moosie was always into hammers

[bull....]

That’s good ...isn’t it

Moosie was always into hammers

even the fool was saying they wouldnt be surprised to see PE compression even with rising earnings as pe was to high for the growth baked in

[dreamcatcher]

That’s good ...but they have lowered it from previous one eh

Target $13.30 sort of implies $11.40 / $11.50 today

Wonder what their ‘formula’ for coming up with price targets is

Correct a few cents (-4%) with a Buy Rating

Maybe next catalyst for SP will come from August result announcement updating Chinese market share or Yuhan Corp distribution of a2 products in Korea kicking in second half 2018

Just thinking and continuing to hold

[winner69]

even the fool was saying they wouldnt be surprised to see PE compression even with rising earnings as pe was to high for the growth baked in

I’m no fool ...but this is whai said last week — Using Goldmans +33% growth and consistent ebitda margins and a PE of 30 gives a share price $10.50 in a years time

Even that may be bullish

[Beagle]

hammertime is coming i can feel it


A broken clock is right twice a day which is all the proof you need that if you're really dogmatic eventually you'll be right but I learned recently that most people don't like "dogmatic".

[bull....]

I’m no fool ...but this is whai said last week — Using Goldmans +33% growth and consistent ebitda margins and a PE of 30 gives a share price $10.50 in a years time

Even that may be bullish

also i reckon there marketing spend will increase even more , too low for such big markets

[Muppett]

hammertime is coming i can feel it

I take it you have no ATM shares?

[Muppett]

also i reckon there marketing spend will increase even more , too low for such big markets

So you must have got rid of your holding and are going to buy back in at what price?

[bull....]

So you must have got rid of your holding and are going to buy back in at what price?

yes i dont own it now , only short it now, might buy it when it gets valued reasonably again or if company prospects change materially

[dreamcatcher]

also i reckon there marketing spend will increase even more , too low for such big markets

Great news and one would expect increasing sales to follow ...................

[Muppett]

yes i dont own it now , only short it now, might buy it when it gets valued reasonably again or if company prospects change materially

"might buy it when it gets valued reasonably..." what do you mean, the market settles at a price you are in agreeance with?
" company prospects change materially" .... what do you mean? Are the prospects not good?

[bull....]

Great news and one would expect increasing sales to follow ...................

better hope so since its share price seems to be based on a revenue result

[Ggcc]

We all hope for that bottom price to start investing...... of course you need to think am I investing or trading. These are in my bottom drawer for a long long time and there is no wrong time when you are investing. If all goes well and I believe it will, I can see $20 per share by 2021 or sooner. Of course this website is called sharetrader not share investor