ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

"might buy it when it gets valued reasonably..." what do you mean, the market settles at a price you are in agreeance with?
" company prospects change materially" .... what do you mean? Are the prospects not good? bull wouldn't have a clue what is reasonable value for the stock, one thing I know is that a few years from now the current price will look so cheap you will think it couldn't have been.Lol. PS-Its not smart money that is selling currently.

[couta1]

That’s good ...isn’t it

Moosie was always into hammers bull could always join Moosie over on the other forum and they could go hammer and tong all day long.

[winner69]

That Jayne going to end up with zillions of shares in due course

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/320947/282910.pdf

[winner69]

Bollie bands tightening

Usually good isn’t it?

[Beagle]

bull wouldn't have a clue what is reasonable value for the stock, one thing I know is that a few years from now the current price will look so cheap you will think it couldn't have been.Lol. PS-Its not smart money that is selling currently.

I'm looking forward to the next day the shorters get torched with a flamethrower, its coming soon...just a tail wag or two away...I feel it in my bones :)

[bull....]

good day today for shorters might buy me some real milk tonight - anchor milk

[couta1]

I'm looking forward to the next day the shorters get torched with a flamethrower, its coming soon...just a tail wag or two away...I feel it in my bones :) As a skier I have as much respect for shorters as I do for snowboarders, you can probably guess how much that is.

[Joshuatree]

Not looking strong chartwise atm and recent shorting below fwiw. The last column the one to look at.





Date
Gross shorts 1
Issued capital
% Capital shorted 2
Trade volume 3
Shorts as % of volume 4


Mon 16th Jul, 2018
453,486
730,039,067
0.06%
3,201,906
14.16%


Fri 13th Jul, 2018
800,516
730,039,067
0.11%
4,570,976
17.51%


Thu 12th Jul, 2018
1,143,772
730,039,067
0.15%
5,386,751
21.23%


Wed 11th Jul, 2018
1,327,039
730,039,067
0.18%
5,151,242
25.76%


Tue 10th Jul, 2018
564,873
730,039,067
0.07%
2,860,810
19.75%


Mon 9th Jul, 2018
321,467
730,039,067
0.04%
2,020,420
15.91%

[visionary]

Not looking strong chartwise atm and recent shorting below fwiw. The last column the one to look at.


Hope you don't mind me removing the chart, it was helpful to review.

So, it appears the weight of shorters' has decreased over the past 7 days (minus today).
This overlayed with the price action would indicate a fall purchase demand at market price, and the apatite for the market to see the price fall.
I would assume this is related to the PE ratio being high, and "flavour of the month" being to identify and actively avoid companies with high PE ratios such as ATM/A2M.

Looking at the chart, the next realistic resistance is around the NZ$10.21 mark.

Going on talk of the effects of the international trade war which is heating up, we are looking at a 10-15% drop in share prices which have not been factored into markets. One would expect those reliant on targeted export markets (China, USA, Germany, Turkey) will have real falls which surpass locally targeted products and services. I am starting to think we are looking at a NZ$8.60 bottom on this movement, which is a short to mid-term motion. I still think I am crazy, but this is what my gut tells me when I look at the chart, and the company numbers with a new company leader and going into untested waters both as a company, and as a global marketplace - even if her last name is Herdlicker.

Is anyone else thinking the same as me? I still hold and am feeling very uncomfortable.

[bull....]

herdlicker? easier to pronounce i guess

[Beagle]

They did $262m in the latest quarter hampered by old labelled stock. I think some people are going to be very surprised by first half sales for the current financial year as retailers stock up on the new labelled product. Disc: Holding 6% portfolio allocation as part of a well diversified portfolio.
Correction is probably a good thing, shake out the weak holders ready for the next leg up.

[Baa_Baa]

@visionary ... I think you mean support, rather than resistance at 10.60, which is correct on the chart and your number 8.60 below that. ATM is in a shallow descending slide, but there's no compelling reason why it will drop to those levels other than it is slowly declining. TA is better for getting one out and keeping one out and looking for an entry than it is holding looking for a last ditch sell to preserve capital. TA'ers are well and truely out now, the patient ones won't be putting some timeframe on when to buy, they will be informed by the sentiment, as shown in the chart. TA'ers don't buy into the euphoric 'she'll be right' nonsense, just because some guru bought higher and talks up their book incessantly while hurting on their capital losses, they just act when it's time to do so. Rinse and repeat.

[winner69]

Today’s looking like it will a good day for the A2 shareprice

[peat]

yeh totally caning it so far , up 7/10 of 1%

:p

sorry man just couldn't resist.

[sb9]

Today’s looking like it will a good day for the A2 shareprice

Us kiwis are optimistic guys, ATM mostly start to move up before ASX opens and they spoil the party for us.

[bull....]

a nice day for the shorters so far

[Ggcc]

A sea of red everywhere

[Muppett]

Today’s looking like it will a good day for the A2 shareprice
What time today will it turn around and start heading north?

[couta1]

What time today will it turn around and start heading north? After hours once you've had a few and start talking it up big time.

[couta1]

a nice day for the shorters so far And a very nice day for Longers if I must say so myself. PS-Longers can enjoy getting a nice slow tan rather than risk being incinerated.

[winner69]

Won’t make a prediction about where share price will go today ...looking good though

[BlackPeter]

Won’t make a prediction about where share price will go today ...looking good though

I take it you are shorting ;)?

[couta1]

Won’t make a prediction about where share price will go today ...looking good though Looking good for the Teddy bears, back to school for them next week.

[bull....]

bollingers spreading , death crosses everywhere short term . think a test of the bottom of the range is in order

[bull....]

break of $10 in aus is of importance , long term still in uptrend at this stage alot will depend on new boss and fundamentals going forward she has to prove herself i reckon before it goes higher

[visionary]

I think Herlicker is a bull.... given her background, I am holding, but looking for more at the right price. I am excited at the prospects with the new lady at the helm, the great team behind her and the experience they can share together to make something amazing. It is scary times for all commodity related stocks right now, so I think the key is a strengthening in marketing - which is where the money is being spent.

Post this, R&D will need to be ramped up to take it in the same direction Fonterra went, on a slightly different (and hopefully long term more efficient) tangent.

A bull I am, but not a bull in a paddock prior to calving season yet.

[Beagle]

I think Herlicker is a bull.... given her background, I am holding, but looking for more at the right price. I am excited at the prospects with the new lady at the helm, the great team behind her and the experience they can share together to make something amazing. It is scary times for all commodity related stocks right now, so I think the key is a strengthening in marketing - which is where the money is being spent.

Post this, R&D will need to be ramped up to take it in the same direction Fonterra went, on a slightly different (and hopefully long term more efficient) tangent.

A bull I am, but not a bull in a paddock prior to calving season yet.

Welcome to the forum bull...you are a real bull unlike the short selling bear masquerading as a bull above. Your post is a refreshing change from some of the dross lately.

[Muppett]

Won’t make a prediction about where share price will go today ...looking good though

You have no idea.
Yesterday it did the opposite to what you said and so far today it is doing the same.
Hopefully you start predicting the SP is going South, so it might then go North.

[Baa_Baa]

bollingers spreading , death crosses everywhere short term . think a test of the bottom of the range is in order

Post a chart? I don't see what you're on about with the (daily) narrow bolly and SP tracking the lower std-dev, no death cross, maybe a test of 200DMA coming (currently 10.23), but that's it. Are you just trying to wind up the longs, having a bit of fun?

[bull....]

Welcome to the forum bull...you are a real bull unlike the short selling bear masquerading as a bull above. Your post is a refreshing change from some of the dross lately.

the market is full of different views , just cause someones view does not match your views does not mean it is the wrong view. sometimes people fall in love with a stock so much they do not know when they are wrong.

[bull....]

Post a chart? I don't see what you're on about with the (daily) narrow bolly and SP tracking the lower std-dev, no death cross, maybe a test of 200DMA coming (currently 10.23), but that's it. Are you just trying to wind up the longs, having a bit of fun?

yes im winding up some longs on here who do not like someone having a view contrary to there own

[Beagle]

the market is full of different views , just cause someones view does not match your views does not mean it is the wrong view. sometimes people fall in love with a stock so much they do not know when they are wrong.

Its the repetitive glee you display whenever it goes down that gets especially tiresome. Its plainly obvious to anyone whether the shares are up down or sideways so gloating every time they go down is always going to be irksome to the majority of people who are long as it adds exactly nothing to the thread other than to invite angst...surely such a thing is a simple enough concept to understand. Winding people up deliberately, as you have now admitted, is deliberatly antagonistic and a breech of the rules of this forum.

[Baa_Baa]

yes im winding up some longs on here who do not like someone having a view contrary to there own

I be guessing but there's a few longs who will be sitting on decent capital losses hoping for a breakup out of this five month sideways down phase. You'll be attracting a bit of negative attention poking at them. Like are you actually short, or is that a wind-up as well?

[Beagle]

yes im winding up some longs on here who do not like someone having a view contrary to there own

Skating on thin ice...

[winner69]

You have no idea.
Yesterday it did the opposite to what you said and so far today it is doing the same.
Hopefully you start predicting the SP is going South, so it might then go North.

Like all of us eh

When I posted it started heading up ....went positive for a while

Seeing you have told me off in no uncertain terms I’ll cease making daily predictions

I live in hope of the share price going up ...probably against my better judgement in knowing that invariably overhyped overpriced shares tend to fall their highs until they find a more stable level (whatever that may be)

A poster (who was revered here) on another forum said that A2 chart shows a classic "exhaustion gap" and a "climax top" on the 22nd February ......and it’s been downhill ever since eh

[bull....]

I be guessing but there's a few longs who will be sitting on decent capital losses hoping for a breakup out of this five month sideways down phase. You'll be attracting a bit of negative attention poking at them. Like are you actually short, or is that a wind-up as well?

as a trader im both long and short at any time, i do not love any stock as baa baa mentioned traders react when it is time up or down. im not saying long term is wrong just that at the moment it down i probably be crowing the virtues of the company when im long lol thats a trader

[bull....]

Skating on thin ice...

no need to be like that tut tut....

[bull....]

Its the repetitive glee you display whenever it goes down that gets especially tiresome. Its plainly obvious to anyone whether the shares are up down or sideways so gloating every time they go down is always going to be irksome to the majority of people who are long as it adds exactly nothing to the thread other than to invite angst...surely such a thing is a simple enough concept to understand. Winding people up deliberately, as you have now admitted, is deliberatly antagonistic and a breech of the rules of this forum.

what your not happy when you make money.
i have given my reasons for shorting how is that not contributing a different view ... back to your kennel

[Muppett]

Like all of us eh

When I posted it started heading up ....went positive for a while

Seeing you have told me off in no uncertain terms I’ll cease making daily predictions

I live in hope of the share price going up ...probably against my better judgement in knowing that invariably overhyped overpriced shares tend to fall their highs until they find a more stable level (whatever that may be)

A poster (who was revered here) on another forum said that A2 chart shows a classic "exhaustion gap" and a "climax top" on the 22nd February ......and it’s been downhill ever since eh

Firstly, I don't mind you making daily predictions, but you never base them on anything.
Maybe make a prediction stating that it's based on: ....currency (eg. 2 years ago ATM reported currency fluctuations was important to profitability), or TA or Aus SP or Muppet Trump and Trade Wars, or current problems at Fonterra or whatever. Just some rationale for a prediction. You might be right or wrong, but at least your thinking about it.

For what its worth, I have 50,000 of these suckers, so would like a Northward moving share price, but don't expect much until Feb 2019 when those results are released, as that gives us a clue to the Korean, Fonterra and other initiatives time to have kicked in and even then it might be too early to have had a meaningful impact.

[couta1]

yes im winding up some longs on here who do not like someone having a view contrary to there own Contrary views are fine, it's your motives I question, what are you trying to achieve other than what you have stated, to wind people up.

[bull....]

Contrary views are fine, it's your motives I question, what are you trying to achieve other than what you have stated, to wind people up.

fine i will not comment on a2 anymore obviously making money by being short is so unethical.

[Muppett]

fine i will not comment on a2 anymore obviously making money by being short is so unethical.

Struth.......it can't be unethical as ethics is to do with rules, codes practice etc...but it could be argued it's unmoral.

[44wishlists]

fine i will not comment on a2 anymore obviously making money by being short is so unethical.

Shorting is definitely a key part of any share trading. Nothing unethical IMO. But please be less antagonism toward other members' comments.

[see weed]

Read posts 7582 to 7703 on 21/2/18 and remember why we are all in this together. PS am taking this opportunity to top up many more thousands as the sp drops.

[carrom74]

Read posts 7582 to 7703 on 21/2/18 and remember why we are all in this together. PS am taking this opportunity to top up many more thousands as the sp drops.

Thanks Seeweed to reassure me(if not all of us..)...and i did read the posts.I still feel this stock will leapfrog TA's by a mile just on the back of its positive sentiment.

Disc-Holding and topping up during the past week.

[couta1]

Thanks Seeweed to reassure me(if not all of us..)...and i did read the posts.I still feel this stock will leapfrog TA's by a mile just on the back of its positive sentiment.

Disc-Holding and topping up during the past week. I sold a third of my holding down today, it's now about 23% of my portfolio total. I'm off to chase divvys with the proceeds.

[Chanchay]

Today was just noise

You young guys read the bit below .... if attention span a bit low the message is Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.


Instead of finding it in Talebs book and typing it out google found it for me
http://www.financialplanningsouthafrica.com/long-term-investment-strategies.html

Nassim Taleb, in his book, Fooled by Randomness, imagines a fictitious retired dentist who employs long term investment strategies and expects to earn investment returns of 15% over time on his portfolio, with an error rate (or “volatility”) of 10% a year.

From a statistical point of view, if one assumes a normal distribution for simplicity, it means that out of every 100 observations of investment performance we would expect that close to 68 of them would fall within a band of plus and minus 10% around the expected return of 15% (they would fall between 5% and 25% just over two-thirds of the time).

A 15% return with a 10% volatility per year translates into a 93% probability of success (a positive return) in any given year. Taleb points out, however, that the probability of success reduces as the time scale narrows.

For example, there would be a 67% probability of success with a one-month time frame, and only a 54% probability of success if the time frame is reduced to one day. This is common sense: in the very short term anything can happen. It takes time, or an increased number of observations, for the average long-term trend to emerge.

If the retired dentist monitored his long term investment portfolio every minute in an eight-hour day, he would on average have 241 pleasurable (positive return) observations against 239 unpleasurable (negative return) observations.

There is an old adage in the financial advice industry...

...an investor experiences the pain of a loss with twice the intensity of the pleasure of a gain!

This unfortunate dentist would probably end every day emotionally drained, stressed and uncertain about his investment strategy. The chances of a poor investment decision, based largely on emotion, are high.

If the dentist examines his long term investment portfolio every month (perhaps he gets a monthly valuation statement). As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four unpleasurable observations, and eight pleasurable observations.

There is still a good chance of a poor decision - remember that it is possible that he could experience a few negative months in a row. It takes a strong investor not to panic in a situation like this.

If he could extend his time scale to one year (where the portfolio’s performance is assessed in an annual review with a financial advisor, for example) then the picture changes dramatically. He will in all likelihood experience only one unpleasant year out of every 20. The chances of making a bad investment decision, based on emotion, are now very low.

It is important to note that the overall investment returns are identical in the above examples (the same set of data has been used - it is just the time frames that have been changed).

Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.

I was randomly jumping pages from many moons ago and saw the above comment jump out from W69.

I have been seriously thinking about banking recent gains of my NZX stock in general, even considering going 100% cash in bank, but perhaps I'll take the above advice and give it another week or two.

Hoping for a faux bear.

[Ted2]

fine i will not comment on a2 anymore obviously making money by being short is so unethical.

That would be grand!

[Baa_Baa]

fine i will not comment on a2 anymore obviously making money by being short is so unethical.

No don't go, it's great to hear about trading strategies that make money in both directions. It is a skill to be using the instruments that are available and completely legitimate.

[Beagle]

Investment strategies is a separate section of this forum and is the right place to discuss varying investment strategies in my opinion.

[mfd]

In theory I don't see why saying you are shorting a stock is any different to someone saying they are buying a stock, which would not be considered out of place in a thread. Making up facts to get a reaction is a little different. Happy holder here, last buy in the 8 something's, never really considered the recent froth to be in the bank but I'm confident we'll get back into the teens in due course. I'm trying to keep away from tax on trading so not worrying about short term trends.

[bull....]

just to clarify i was not making stuff up to wind people up , people got wound up because they dont like what they heard.

the technicals show a clear rsi divergence on the weeklies in early march which anyone who cares to research is a warning sign of weakness this was followed by a macd crossover in march and death crosses as well in april on the dailies.

the hourly charts show bollinger expanding now from the consolidation and my modified 9,18 etc death crosses on the hrlies as well also the breakdown from 11.30 support adds to short term bearish.

long term still above the 200d so bullish

if you dont like my take on the technicals chart dont read it - simple

[bull....]

baa baa and anyone else who likes t/a at tradingview there is a big community of people who post charts on all sorts of financial instruments.

[Baa_Baa]

Investment strategies is a separate section of this forum and is the right place to discuss varying investment strategies in my opinion.

It's not an investment strategy, it's a trading strategy on ShareTrader.co.nz. The best place to discuss a trading strategy is on the company thread that the trade is being carried out on, in close to real time to give it meaning and relevance. Just because it's a short trade doesn't diminish it's value for discussion than an long trade otherwise would. Seems to me things have got a bit precious around here. I get it, that when people are holding underwater positions, it grates to have anyone that had the skills, foresight or whatever to get out or make money from it and talk about it! Some people enjoy reminding others when they bailed at the top, regardless of how low the SP eventually gets, with little thought for who might be hurting. Keeping an open mind and not marrying our shares and long investment strategies in a volatile share that has no returns to shareholders other than capital gains, could save a heap of capital and maybe even help us learn a few new tricks when there's an ill wind blowing our SP's backwards.

[Ggcc]

Rather than a ta perspective let’s focus on what 1.4 billion turnover will be for the share price FY 2019.? Giving a profit of let’s say 400 million due to increased marketing expenses......... 800-900 million in the bank. My mouth is frothing. Let’s be positive rather than focusing on the negative. I am a happy holder

[Joshuatree]

baa baa and anyone else who likes t/a at tradingview there is a big community of people who post charts on all sorts of financial instruments.

Your posting adds depth, variety and content bull. I Like your transparency and shorting is just another legit play in this mkt and we all need to be a little savvy and accepting about this , just like T/A and F/A does. Shorting aint dirty, ramping can be though but thats a another subject.

[couta1]

Your posting adds depth, variety and content bull. I Like your transparency and shorting is just another legit play in this mkt and we all need to be a little savvy and accepting about this , just like T/A and F/A does. Shorting aint dirty, ramping can be though but thats a another subject. Shorting may be legal but it's not a strategy I like or would participate in personally. There is plenty of dirty play going on with this stock mainly in the form of manipulation by the big boys and I guess small fry shorters just help them to achieve their purposes. Anyway I reckon ATM is a ripe takeover target, especially as the SP continues to fall, in that case even the big boys may end up with egg on their faces.

[winner69]

Rather than a ta perspective let’s focus on what 1.4 billion turnover will be for the share price FY 2019.? Giving a profit of let’s say 400 million due to increased marketing expenses......... 800-900 million in the bank. My mouth is frothing. Let’s be positive rather than focusing on the negative. I am a happy holder


Getting a bit excited there ggcc I reckon


Firstly your $1.4 billion +52% on this year) a bit ambitious but heck we need a bit of hype around here to cheer us up eh


Even if it was $1.4 billion and they achieved the touted 30% ebitda margin npat after tax will be about $300m or an eps of eps of 40 cents


So a share price of $11 odd today still on forward looking PE of 28


My mouth isn't frothing but what the heck do I know anyway


Hope your post gets punters excited and they start buying again ...we need a bit of help eh

[davflaws]

No don't go, it's great to hear about trading strategies that make money in both directions. It is a skill to be using the instruments that are available and completely legitimate.
The thread started to get tetchy when Bull was invited to post a chart showing the TA phenomena he referred to. I have no problem with him shorting and or crowing, but if anyone makes a claim about bolly bands or topless mermaids wearing death crosses it would be good to have a chart so I know what they are talking about.

[Joshuatree]

Have borrowed this(not shorted:) from another public forum, mainly UBS content posted by someone beginning with K and ending with W,Thanks.

UBS analysts remain optimistic about a2 Milk’s outlook following strong gains on China’s infant formula bestseller list, even as prices fall. According to UBS data, the company saw its first like-for-like price decline since 2016 in the second quarter. For the period, like-for-like prices fell about 5 per cent, although this could be because the company was launching a new label, resulting in clearance activity of the old label.
“We believe this was attributable to discounting ahead of the new label product launched at the end of the second quarter,” the analysts said. “Anecdotally pricing on new label product has begun to recover.”

The analysts remained optimistic about the company’s medium term outlook, but left a neutral rating on the stock ahead of a re-rate by a new covering analyst. “We continue to believe the medium term outlook for a2 Milk remains robust, with our recent visit to China reaffirming this,” the analysts said.

A2 Platinum is now is now ranked seventh as a company in online share of the top 25 formula bestsellers. While the results for the second quarter were promising, the analysts warned that overall, the price premium of imported brands in China over domestic ones appears to be narrowing and is now at about 11 per cent, compared to 50 per cent in January 2016. Still, imported brands have continued to increase their share of total online stock keeping units, now at 83 per cent, compared to 75 per cent a year ago.

“The ‘easy ride’ of multinationals might be coming to an end, with Nestlé and Danone losing momentum on bestseller lists and a2 Milk’s pricing down for the first time in two years, ahead of the new label launch,” the analysts said. “We think the market is currently not pricing in any downside risk to the long-term profitability of the multinationals in the Chinese IMF market.”

[ratkin]

A2 Platinum is now is now ranked seventh as a company in online share of the top 25 formula bestsellers. While the results for the second quarter were promising, the analysts warned that overall, the price premium of imported brands in China over domestic ones appears to be narrowing and is now at about 11 per cent, compared to 50 per cent in January 2016. Still, imported brands have continued to increase their share of total online stock keeping units, now at 83 per cent, compared to 75 per cent a year ago.[/COLOR]

“The ‘easy ride’ of multinationals might be coming to an end, with Nestlé and Danone losing momentum on bestseller lists and a2 Milk’s pricing down for the first time in two years, ahead of the new label launch,” the analysts said. “We think the market is currently not pricing in any downside risk to the long-term profitability of the multinationals in the Chinese IMF market.”

These Two paragraphs seem a little concerning. They would not be if the company was not priced at such high multiples, but because it is, anything less than perfection is going to hurt the shareprice. One good reason why buying at any price is not to be recommended however good the company may look.

[Joshuatree]

They are and i believe KW is out for those reasons but more importantly (for KW)the T/A.

Disclose still holding my first small parcel but havn't added atp as I planned.

[bull....]

9815

When looking at T/A should start from longer time frame Weekly above notice the divergence in price to rsi often considered a warning sign of weakening trend also the overbrought level of price also considered warning sign.

9816

daily timeframe shows the weekly divergence and also the now apparent downtrend channel that has estabilished. also of mention notice how ;onger term price has respected the 50day moving average bouncing in the past of this but recently not being able to stay above it. longer term people sometime use a 200 day moving average which price is still above.

9817

Notice how the gap acts as support on the retest from extreme overbrought levels in may now in june it acts as resistance as well as the 50 day moving average

9818

during june july the price was in range bollingers tighten , the last few days they stretch which often is said to start a trend. the price maybe in larger range time will tell when we retest each boundary of the lines drawn.

and lastly an intra day look below

9819

you will notice the breakdown from range and bollingers pushing down also my what i refer to as death crosses of moving averages.

anyway this is a relative simple view of how i personally study a stock chart from longer time frame to intra day time frame and reflects one of my method of investing.

thats why i am currently talking short as short term the price is heading down as represented by the chart in the longer term who knows what will happen but as a technical analysis you react to changes in the market weather long or short.
all people are in market to make money one way or another thats why there are so many views as everyone has different methods at the end of the day if you have conviction in your method everything else is noise.

[davflaws]

Thank you Bull. That was extremely informative.

[bull....]

It would be nice if some of the fundamental people on here showed there workings out on valuation , i can only remember ever seeing snoopy give his.

Ideally an all rounded investor would incorporate fundamental as well as technical analysis to form views.

[winner69]

It would be nice if some of the fundamental people on here showed there workings out on valuation , i can only remember ever seeing snoopy give his.

Ideally an all rounded investor would incorporate fundamental as well as technical analysis to form views.

I daren’t ...not the answer punters want to see

And even though pretty thick skinned couldn’t take the ‘criticism’

[kiora]

Thanks Bull.Great to see your perspective and charts,keep posting these please!

[BlackPeter]

It would be nice if some of the fundamental people on here showed there workings out on valuation , i can only remember ever seeing snoopy give his.

Ideally an all rounded investor would incorporate fundamental as well as technical analysis to form views.

Cheers bull - great post and thanks that you did show us what you see. Keep it up!

Not sure I consider myself a "fundamentalist" more a "balanced" person ... but hey - here is in a nutshell what I see from a fundamental perspective:

forward PE: (at 10.75 and based on 4 traders analyst consensus): 29; Obviously a risk if & when PE contraction starts (some say it did already);

CAGR: huge, but hard to capture given the immense jumps. Lets take 50 as backward (revenue) CAGR. EPS CAGR is still ways higher, but clearly not sustainable, i.e. in my view just describing the past.

The big issue here is that we can't really use these numbers for any future projections - given that they describe the agility of a small antelope (which ATM used to be), but not the future movements of a elephant turning into a mammoth. Elephants don't gallop ;).

FY16 growth 127%
FY17 growth 56%
FY18 growth 67%
FY19 growth (predicted): 34%
FY20 growth (predicted): 23%


Anybody noticing the trend?

Looks like the 50% CAGR is history as well. So - big question is - what would be a sensible assumption for future long term growth?

Get this number right - and your fundamental assessment will be spot on ;)

If we take the growth out of the equation, than the share would be worth something like 10 PE - $3.71; Obviously - we do have growth, so halt your flogging and take this just as a base number.

If we take Rogers modified Graham formula and assume 10% sustainable growth, than the share value would be $7.42;

Still too conservative? Make it 15% sustained growth: $9.27

And for the optimists - here is the result based on the original Graham formula and 15% growth: $14.28;

Given the huge unknowns about future market growth, competition (margins shrinking) and the science around A2 did I not bother to do a DCF. Garbage in - garbage out.

From experience - if a share is priced close to its Graham value, than there is not that much upside potential left ;) but obviously - increase the growth assumptions and the sky is the limit.

Still - if I may says so - the bears have in my view a bigger chance of winning this contest ... despite A2 being a good company.

Discl: not holding and cancelled my buy order at $9.50. Analysis is good.

[Beagle]

All of the above is predicated upon what assumption one makes regarding the average growth rate over the next 7-10 years. I am not going to attempt to put a number on it other than to say I think this has potential that's well and truly above an average NZX50 stock. One needs to think about product expansion in regard to the tie up with Fontera and expansion of IF demand in China and elsewhere in the world. Then there's the growth in fresh milk sales.

FY19 PE of 29 seems pretty reasonable to me for this fast growing company and represents a PE premium above the NZX50 market average of only about 8 and its well worth noting that a considerable number of slower growing companies trade on similar or more elevated multiples.

I agree that short term the TA indicates that long term holders may be in for some more short term psychological challenges. This task would be made easier if shorters we're quite so overtly gleeful about the pleasure they get from their profits. Long term investors have every reason to be hopeful about the future in my opinion. Perhaps there's maybe something like another $1 downside risk from here, long term the upside potential is what I am focused on.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/news/A2-Milk-Margins-Stabilise-As-a2-Milk-Lifts-Investment-26937975/
Worth noting for long term holders that if the company makes its targets as per consensus 4 traders estimates for FY19 and everything looks okay for FY20 then if the stock does nothing this year in terms of its SP, (I can live with that after a ripper year last year) then this time next year it will be on a FY20 PE of just 23.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

For me about 10% of my portfolio in total in the ATM and Synlait "dynamic duo" feels right in terms of weathering this volatility. I might add a bit later in the year or early in 2019 if their relative SP's offer even better value either through a lower price or a situation of more EPS growth and the same price.

[peat]

9815

When looking at T/A should start from longer time frame Weekly above notice the divergence in price to rsi often considered a warning sign of weakening trend also the overbrought level of price also considered warning sign.


Just for the record:

I dont see that drawing of divergence as being correct. It is exaggerated. Strictly speaking there is only divergence when the price moves in the opposite direction to the RSI which means that line of divergence you've drawn should be much shorter and should stop at the all time price high. Sure there is some divergence at that point - but from thereon price and RSI are convergent as they both move in the same direction.

[Sideshow Bob]

The efforts of Bull and Peter are appreciated in terms of giving some rationality to the debate and sharing their valuations/ideas/positions.

My current position is probably similar to many others on this site. I bought <$1, sold a few (too early) and the remainder are a 'free-carry'. I'm looking at long-term, and not especially worried about TA - but not in a position to add any further. Haven't traded, as scared would get caught out (as would have up until the last few months) - but bought and held.

Wrongly, I haven't really looked too hard at valuations - mainly growth rates and what that means to PE's, and also their cashflows/cash position etc. They have traditionally under-promised and over-delivered, make smart decisions, and believe there is still much in the pipeline - especially with some traction with Fonterra, developments in US, UK, Korea etc (Yuhan in Korea are definitely the real deal, and good alignment for A2). Growth is naturally going to slow as they get bigger, because hard to double in size when a billion turnover compared to being a $50m turnover. The competition is also coming, many with deep pockets - so that marketing spend does have to increase - but likely that growing competition will also grow the market and awareness of A2.

I am totally aware that there is obviously some emotion/bias/subjectivity to A2 on my part - as easily the most profitable share investment I've made and made a meaningful difference to our family's financial position. Perhaps should be paying more time/attention to valuations - but again, I think there would be definitely others here who could put there hand up on this also.....and regardless remain a believer in the A2 story.

[ratkin]

Only charts I bother with these days are equi volume as the only thing that really matters is price and volume, and virtually all the indicators people use are just derived from price anyway. As an investor rather than short term trader I just look for the big days. Here is a Two year chart of A2 which shows very simply that only a couple of days are really important.
It is obvious that the stock is defined by whatever happened on the 21st of February while the massive box on the 22nd of Feb is a clear gamechanger, huge volume that day and a clear top which was confirmed when price fell below that box. Nothing in the last Two years comes close to the significance of those Two days. In hindsight looks like the smart money was getting out.

9820

[winner69]

Only charts I bother with these days are equi volume as the only thing that really matters is price and volume, and virtually all the indicators people use are just derived from price anyway. As an investor rather than short term trader I just look for the big days. Here is a Two year chart of A2 which shows very simply that only a couple of days are really important.
It is obvious that the stock is defined by whatever happened on the 21st of February while the massive box on the 22nd of Feb is a clear gamechanger, huge volume that day and a clear top which was confirmed when price fell below that box. Nothing in the last Two years comes close to the significance of those Two days. In hindsight looks like the smart money was getting out.

9820

“exhaustion gap" and a "climax top" make for interesting study

That’s what happened around February 22nd

Might be some time before the share price gets back to that level

[winner69]

Ratkin, that’s a cool chart you posted

Yes does suggest that’s when the “smart money” got out

[bull....]

Just for the record:

I dont see that drawing of divergence as being correct. It is exaggerated. Strictly speaking there is only divergence when the price moves in the opposite direction to the RSI which means that line of divergence you've drawn should be much shorter and should stop at the all time price high. Sure there is some divergence at that point - but from thereon price and RSI are convergent as they both move in the same direction.

the divergence is from late 2017 - feb 2018 on the weekly i forgot to draw the line on the weekly. its exxaggerated by the spike up in price which ratkins chart shows was more than likely used by some to take profits.

[peat]

its exxaggerated by the spike up in price

thats not what I meant. the length of the divergence line on the RSI should be much shorter meaning there was a briefer period of divergence than your chart suggested.

[bull....]

Cheers bull - great post and thanks that you did show us what you see. Keep it up!

Not sure I consider myself a "fundamentalist" more a "balanced" person ... but hey - here is in a nutshell what I see from a fundamental perspective:

forward PE: (at 10.75 and based on 4 traders analyst consensus): 29; Obviously a risk if & when PE contraction starts (some say it did already);

CAGR: huge, but hard to capture given the immense jumps. Lets take 50 as backward (revenue) CAGR. EPS CAGR is still ways higher, but clearly not sustainable, i.e. in my view just describing the past.

The big issue here is that we can't really use these numbers for any future projections - given that they describe the agility of a small antelope (which ATM used to be), but not the future movements of a elephant turning into a mammoth. Elephants don't gallop ;).

FY16 growth 127%
FY17 growth 56%
FY18 growth 67%
FY19 growth (predicted): 34%
FY20 growth (predicted): 23%


Anybody noticing the trend?

Looks like the 50% CAGR is history as well. So - big question is - what would be a sensible assumption for future long term growth?

Get this number right - and your fundamental assessment will be spot on ;)

If we take the growth out of the equation, than the share would be worth something like 10 PE - $3.71; Obviously - we do have growth, so halt your flogging and take this just as a base number.

If we take Rogers modified Graham formula and assume 10% sustainable growth, than the share value would be $7.42;

Still too conservative? Make it 15% sustained growth: $9.27

And for the optimists - here is the result based on the original Graham formula and 15% growth: $14.28;

Given the huge unknowns about future market growth, competition (margins shrinking) and the science around A2 did I not bother to do a DCF. Garbage in - garbage out.

From experience - if a share is priced close to its Graham value, than there is not that much upside potential left ;) but obviously - increase the growth assumptions and the sky is the limit.

Still - if I may says so - the bears have in my view a bigger chance of winning this contest ... despite A2 being a good company.

Discl: not holding and cancelled my buy order at $9.50. Analysis is good.

good stuff i did a 2 stage fcff valuation and got some figures like yours , depended so much on how the growth rate i attributed to stable growth made such a difference to figures spouted out. why i prefer to use both t/a and f/a as charts suppossedly contains all known info other than the short term.

[James108]

“exhaustion gap" and a "climax top" make for interesting study

That’s what happened around February 22nd

Might be some time before the share price gets back to that level

There’s usually an exhaustion gap after I climax top aswell.

[RGR367]

There’s usually an exhaustion gap after I climax top aswell.

Double entendre. LOL

[Beagle]

Tony Alexander saying this week that their is a net short bet on the $Kiwi of about $2.7 billion by N.Z. Business's. Small business confidence hit a nine year low this week according to ANZ small business confidence survey out yesterday. Pessimism has never been worse since the very depths of the GFC in March 2009. I expect there's a very good chance that this economy is headed for extremely low growth or a recession and that the Kiwi is probably headed lower. Good thing for ATM with the vast majority of its sales overseas and not dependent on domestic demand. I think the $Kiwi will be lower and therefore margins higher than consensus analyst view. I'm also more bullish on sales estimates. I'm with Craigs and see the distinct possibility of $1.4b, consensus view is about $1.28b last time I looked. Could be even higher in $Kiwi terms if we head down to the low 60's U.S.

[Ggcc]

Interesting post I read from hotcopper
If those turnover targets are correct I would think he/she maybe correct with sp guidance.
Of course do your own research!! I just got my Fresha valley A2 milk from countdown and it tastes so much better than the other milks I have tried, It reminds me of the milk we drank when we were younger........ Not as watery as some of what we drink nowadays.

The current share price weakness is due to change in sentiment provoked by China trade war, and some analysts worried China sales are stalling.

NOW is the time to buy.

I think we will see $20 in 2020 and then move towards $40 in years to follow.

My reasons are below...

Growth in China IF will continue towards 10% and well beyond. This will be underpinned by strong MBS sales (not so much online sales)
Infant formula and milk powder sales in rest of Asia will start to build, this will be underpinned by, South Korea which will surprise, Additional South east Asia markets, such as Vietnam.
Additional product launches in China label, stage 4, pregnancy, individual sachets.
Liquid milk infant formula launched in China. Will be a huge market as flagged by Synlait. Another growth area.
USA sales will accelerate, during FY19, and accelerate further in FY20. This will be on the back of the increased marketing. Infant formula will be rolled out. This will be the next growth engine.
UK will continue to be a very small market. Infant formula will be launched.
NZ fresh milk will launch early FY19 (possibly August).
Middle East infant formula to launch in 2H19 (Fonterra)
Additional product launches from Fonterra, cheese, butter, cream. Also nutritional powders, chocolate powder protein shake, vanilla powder protein shake.
Additional growth in Australia market. Driven by substantial increased supply from synlait, and new powder products from Fonterra. Diagou sales will continue to grow.
Synlait Wakaito infant formula manufacturing plant to start production in FY19
Synlait Dunsandel long life liquid milk plant to open FY20
Fonterra site operational in FY19
New canning site purchased by A2M / Fonterra
special dividend and market buy back announced.

Based off the above growth (which will be underpinned by an approximate doubling of supply in next 2 years) I estimate the following revenues...


FY19 - 1.4 billion up 55%

FY20 - 2 billion up 40%


So as I said... $20 in 2020

[Beagle]

Interesting post I read from hotcopper
If those turnover targets are correct I would think he/she maybe correct with sp guidance.
Of course do your own research!! I just got my Fresha valley A2 milk from countdown and it tastes so much better than the other milks I have tried, It reminds me of the milk we drank when we were younger........ Not as watery as some of what we drink nowadays.

The current share price weakness is due to change in sentiment provoked by China trade war, and some analysts worried China sales are stalling.

NOW is the time to buy.

I think we will see $20 in 2020 and then move towards $40 in years to follow.

My reasons are below...

Growth in China IF will continue towards 10% and well beyond. This will be underpinned by strong MBS sales (not so much online sales)
Infant formula and milk powder sales in rest of Asia will start to build, this will be underpinned by, South Korea which will surprise, Additional South east Asia markets, such as Vietnam.
Additional product launches in China label, stage 4, pregnancy, individual sachets.
Liquid milk infant formula launched in China. Will be a huge market as flagged by Synlait. Another growth area.
USA sales will accelerate, during FY19, and accelerate further in FY20. This will be on the back of the increased marketing. Infant formula will be rolled out. This will be the next growth engine.
UK will continue to be a very small market. Infant formula will be launched.
NZ fresh milk will launch early FY19 (possibly August).
Middle East infant formula to launch in 2H19 (Fonterra)
Additional product launches from Fonterra, cheese, butter, cream. Also nutritional powders, chocolate powder protein shake, vanilla powder protein shake.
Additional growth in Australia market. Driven by substantial increased supply from synlait, and new powder products from Fonterra. Diagou sales will continue to grow.
Synlait Wakaito infant formula manufacturing plant to start production in FY19
Synlait Dunsandel long life liquid milk plant to open FY20
Fonterra site operational in FY19
New canning site purchased by A2M / Fonterra
special dividend and market buy back announced.

Based off the above growth (which will be underpinned by an approximate doubling of supply in next 2 years) I estimate the following revenues...


FY19 - 1.4 billion up 55%

FY20 - 2 billion up 40%


So as I said... $20 in 2020

Nice....and all on a lower $Kiwi !

[winner69]

Ggcc

FY21 $3 billion up 50%

So as I said $30 in 2021

And as your hotcopper friend says $40 in 2021 (that’s years after eh)

[nizzy]

The IF volume in the USA is driven by Tenders run by individual states for food aid programmes. Only the large players have capacity to participate. A2 would need a top end niche outside that game to survive in IF there.

[couta1]

Ggcc

FY21 $3 billion up 50%

So as I said $30 in 2021

And as your hotcopper friend says $40 in 2021 (that’s years after eh) If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.

[BlackPeter]

If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.

Don't think you can compare the two. The difference is scale-ability and hype. XRO licenses are infinitely multipliable without additional cost. A2 still needs to find cows and somehow contribute to their upkeep for every liter of milk or kg of milk solids they sell ...

[carrom74]

If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.

I suspect most of the ST's must be on the green unlike me...My average is $11 and i was one of the late entrants to the party(sold it around $3 and bought it again).My intention is to hold it until 2020 and i am hoping A2 will make substantial progress in new markets such as Korea and the middle east.

Also has the SP drop of late is due to the repackaging of its brands and selling the existing ones at the discounted price?

Thanks BP and Bull for providing good analysis.

[Beagle]

Don't think you can compare the two. The difference is scale-ability and hype. XRO licenses are infinitely multipliable without additional cost. A2 still needs to find cows and somehow contribute to their upkeep for every liter of milk or kg of milk solids they sell ...


Tax laws in various jurisdictions are changing on a very regular basis so the need to update software to cope will be an ongoing cost. In addition to that there's a vast choice when it comes to accounting program's out there. Only time will tell how profitable XRO might be but for me that one still rates rates as highly speculative.
I'd rather own something with real earnings.

[BlackPeter]

Tax laws in various jurisdictions are changing on a very regular basis so the need to update software to cope will be an ongoing cost. In addition to that there's a vast choice when it comes to accounting program's out there. Only time will tell how profitable XRO might be but for me that one still rates rates as highly speculative.
I'd rather own something with real earnings.

Absolutely. Never said that XRO is better, only that the two are not really comparable. Currently holding neither.

[couta1]

Absolutely. Never said that XRO is better, only that the two are not really comparable. Currently holding neither. My point wasn't really comparing the two per se, but rather A2 is a highly profitable business sitting on a cash pile where as XRO to date is not ,yet it has smashed it in terms of SP. Lets not forget that XRO went from $45 down to $12 on route to $50, maybe there is a similarity between the two in this respect.

[Beagle]

My point wasn't really comparing the two per se, but rather A2 is a highly profitable business sitting on a cash pile where as XRO to date is not ,yet it has smashed it in terms of SP. Lets not forget that XRO went from $45 down to $12 on route to $50, maybe there is a similarity between the two in this respect.

Good point mate. I think patient long term holders will enjoy a very rewarding future with ATM.

[allfromacell]

A2 milk under the A2 milk company / Anchor brand is at pack and save for $6.29 now. Very pricy! Will be interesting to see how it sells and if we'll see some marketing spend here.

Anyone noticed it at Countdown or anywhere else?

[Ggcc]

A2 milk under the A2 milk company / Anchor brand is at pack and save for $6.29 now. Very pricy! Will be interesting to see how it sells and if we'll see some marketing spend here.

Anyone noticed it at Countdown or anywhere else?
$4.90 at Napier Countdown. Fresha Valley

[Beagle]

Pricing compares very well with organic milk.

[Nasi Goreng]

I don’t think it’s too expensive if you believe in the health benefits. Lactose free milk is more expensive than that. $4 a litre I think.

So is it branded anchor/A2?

[allfromacell]

I don’t think it’s too expensive if you believe in the health benefits. Lactose free milk is more expensive than that. $4 a litre I think.

So is it branded anchor/A2?

I found some images from another forum.

9822
9823

[Nasi Goreng]

Interesting... I hadn't thought much about the fact anchor was doing their bottling/distribution and how that may lead to co-branding. It certainly looks more professional than Fresh Valley.

Fonterra have dismissed A2 for years... now they have A2 branded product, what if its really successful? who wins?

[thestg]

Couldn't resist buying more at $10.50

[Redmack]

$4.90 at Napier Countdown. Fresha Valley

Fresha Valley is similarly priced in Countdown Auckland. $1.39 for great looking packaging tells me I was in the wrong business. Being a big milk/porridge person I have found the thickness one can get in the throat from milk has all but disappeared after using A2 milk (it might have other benefits with the professional packaging:)).

[carrom74]

Couldn't resist buying more at $10.50

Did you end up buying???

[dreamcatcher]

Truly sorry for Chinese parents affected by these faulty vaccines and one can understand the people mistrust of local brands

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/23/china-outcry-over-sale-of-250000-faulty-vaccines-prompts-investigation

[Baa_Baa]

The slow leak continues 28.5% off the high SP. First time the approaching 200ma ($10.27) has been in play since Nov 2016, that and beneath it the low 24 May ($9.99) and beneath that the gap close ($9.40) should all offer decent price support. So a support range from here $10.45-> $10.27 down to $9.40 = about $1.00 range for people to make up their minds whether enough is enough, be that bail hold or buy. Indicators reckon there's still room to the downside. Another salutary lesson in not buying or holding confirmed down trends, especially in a non-earner. It's all about capital.

[winner69]

The slow leak continues. First time the approaching 200ma ($10.27) has been in play since Nov 2016, that and beneath it the low 24 May ($9.99) and beneath that the gap close ($9.40) should all offer decent price support. So a support range from here $10.45-> $10.27 down to $9.40 = about $1.00 range for people to make up their minds whether enough is enough, be that bail hold or buy. Indicators reckon there's still room to the downside. Another salutary lesson in not buying or holding confirmed down trends, especially in a non-earner. It's all about capital.


Nearly 30% off its high as well .....that's quite a drop

[Roadrunner]

A2 milk with the Anchor/Fonterra logos also spotted in Melody's New World, Palmerston North today.

[moka]

Fairly low turnover today at $5,798,832, so the big players did not think $10.50 was cheap enough. Looks like the downtrend will continue.
Time for the seasick pills again.

[BobbyMorocco]

The slow leak continues 28.5% off the high SP. First time the approaching 200ma ($10.27) has been in play since Nov 2016, that and beneath it the low 24 May ($9.99) and beneath that the gap close ($9.40) should all offer decent price support. So a support range from here $10.45-> $10.27 down to $9.40 = about $1.00 range for people to make up their minds whether enough is enough, be that bail hold or buy. Indicators reckon there's still room to the downside. Another salutary lesson in not buying or holding confirmed down trends, especially in a non-earner. It's all about capital.

I'm thinking a few people would be guilty of falling in love with a stock. Easy to do, particularly after such an incredible run like ATM had. But paper profits don't do anything for anyone, the key is to bank those profits at some point. It must be hard watching those profits slip away or even worse if you're now well under after buying in to the hype earlier in the year. Good luck to everyone, whatever your strategy. I'm leaving A2 alone for now as I still expect that gap to get filled.

[thestg]

Did you end up buying???

Yes 2000 @ $10.49

[Snow Leopard]

...Indicators reckon there's still room to the downside. Another salutary lesson in not buying or holding confirmed down trends, especially in a non-earner. It's all about capital.

Here we go again. You have to love the 'TA' guys and there emotive rants against the mythical buy and hold.

Go find a chart, with a 4 year time frame and spot the unbroken uptrend (even on a log chart).

Zoom it out to 10 years and have another look at the beauty there is to behold.

There is more than one way to shear a sheep, you know.


Disc: Own some, but not as many as I once did.

[carrom74]

Yes 2000 @ $10.49

Well.. All the best to both of us then...

Bought a small parcel at $10.48.

[sb9]

Couple of media articles relating to A2 milk.

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/demand-for-a2-dairy-sires

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/how-long-will-a2-premiums-last

[bull....]

The slow leak continues 28.5% off the high SP. First time the approaching 200ma ($10.27) has been in play since Nov 2016, that and beneath it the low 24 May ($9.99) and beneath that the gap close ($9.40) should all offer decent price support. So a support range from here $10.45-> $10.27 down to $9.40 = about $1.00 range for people to make up their minds whether enough is enough, be that bail hold or buy. Indicators reckon there's still room to the downside. Another salutary lesson in not buying or holding confirmed down trends, especially in a non-earner. It's all about capital.

excellent points esp the last

a2 still got alot of catching up to do with others in the sector, you could say it is out performing at the moment

[RGR367]

Well.. All the best to both of us then...

Bought a small parcel at $10.48.

Got hit too on 10.35 and unless it really go down by another dollar or more, I won't be adding anymore of this to my safe box :)

[Beagle]

Here we go again. You have to love the 'TA' guys and there emotive rants against the mythical buy and hold.

Go find a chart, with a 4 year time frame and spot the unbroken uptrend (even on a log chart).

Zoom it out to 10 years and have another look at the beauty there is to behold.

There is more than one way to shear a sheep, you know.


Disc: Own some, but not as many as I once did.

This hound is in full agreement with the snow leopard...imagine a beagle and snow leopard eating from the same food bowl and then try and get that image out of your mind lol.

Seriously...somebody show me an example of where Rome WAS built in a day, of course you can't find one ! These guys have laid a great foundation for future growth but it takes TIME.
Just like my furry fellow shareholder I don't have as many as I once had, having sold about half some time back but long term what a fantastic story so far and I am happy to buy back the stake I sold in the high 12's once we see confirmation of a new uptrend. There's more than one way to skin a cat, (with apologies to my canine friend).

[bull....]

a2 fined in china

https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/a2-milk-fined-20000-for-breaching-chinese-child-image-advertising-rules-20180724-h13253

[Ggcc]

a2 fined in china

https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/a2-milk-fined-20000-for-breaching-chinese-child-image-advertising-rules-20180724-h13253
$20,000 is such a small fine for such a silly rule.

[silu]

a2 fined in china

https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/a2-milk-fined-20000-for-breaching-chinese-child-image-advertising-rules-20180724-h13253

That explains the drop in SP ;)

[RGR367]

$20,000 is such a small fine for such a silly rule.

Not a silly rule if they're still learning their market.

[see weed]

Turn around? or dead cat? If it is turn around, the last drop on 22/5/18 appears to be a bit lower than the 23/7/18 low;). We will see at end of day. Wow, might be two up days in a row:).

[Ggcc]

Not a silly rule if they're still learning their market.
I call it another form of advertising. 😊

[Dust]

$20,000 is such a small fine for such a silly rule.

Whats silly about the rule?

[Ggcc]

Whats silly about the rule?
Advertising using a child under 10. I thought with consent as far as I could see

[Dust]

Advertising using a child under 10. I thought with consent as far as I could see

How can an under 10 make an informed rational decision regarding consent though haha? Esp having your image plastered infront of a billion people.

[Ggcc]

How can an under 10 make an informed rational decision regarding consent though haha? Esp having your image plastered infront of a billion people.
They had their mum with them. Either way great advertising well worth $20,000 extra

[Dust]

They had their mum with them. Either way great advertising well worth $20,000 extra

Oh well I hope the kid's mom isnt a fan of organ donations for $50k then hahaha

[bull....]

relief rally from the fine amount

[dreamcatcher]

Another example of the challenges facing AUSTRALIAN companies doing business in China....................Unbelievable these Aussies !!

[bull....]

another explanation for the selling - fund selling big time

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321280

[winner69]

another explanation for the selling - fund selling big time

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321280

Not much selling lately ......seems to be a notice more about correcting previous notice and shuffling shares about

[thestg]

A2 is now in Napier Pak’nSave @ $6.39.

It is now in the Anchor light proof bottles.

I had previously purchased form Countdown in the Fresha Valley bottles but found it did not even last till the best before date, while the Anchor blue milk in the light proof containers would last till at least 7 days or more after the best before date.

It will be interesting to see if it will last longer under the new packaging.

[Beagle]

A2 is now in Napier Pak’nSave @ $6.39.

It is now in the Anchor light proof bottles.

I had previously purchased form Countdown in the Fresha Valley bottles but found it did not even last till the best before date, while the Anchor blue milk in the light proof containers would last till at least 7 days or more after the best before date.

It will be interesting to see if it will last longer under the new packaging.

Thanks for the heads-up. Better packaging and presentation in the N.Z. market is exactly what is needed in my opinion.

[allfromacell]

A2 is now in Napier Pak’nSave @ $6.39.

It is now in the Anchor light proof bottles.

I had previously purchased form Countdown in the Fresha Valley bottles but found it did not even last till the best before date, while the Anchor blue milk in the light proof containers would last till at least 7 days or more after the best before date.

It will be interesting to see if it will last longer under the new packaging.

Seems to be selling quite well too, checked the shelf on my weekly shop to Pack n Save Royal Oak in Auckland yesterday and around 2/3's of the stock was sold. There was also a sign warning of high demand for Fresha Valley A2 milk and apologising for the inconvenience of low supply...

[minimoke]

Thanks for the heads-up. Better packaging and presentation in the N.Z. market is exactly what is needed in my opinion.I'm disappointed with NZ marketing. It shouldn't be here. NZ is too small a market and the resource should be being applied to larger / higher volume / higher margin markets than the local pak n save.

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm disappointed with NZ marketing. It shouldn't be here. NZ is too small a market and the resource should be being applied to larger / higher volume / higher margin markets than the local pak n save.

This may be a side show, but would it be bad marketing in China if A2 was able to say it was the number 1 selling milk product in NZ? A long way to go there but you got to start somewhere. This should pay for itself so therefore is easy money in my mind.

[44wishlists]

I m actually very happy to see A2Milk is finally available in NZ.

If I have been drinking a2Milk in other country, such as China, and when I come to visit New Zealand, and couldn't find the milk in any of the major supermarkets, it would surely put me wondering why such a popular and premium brand of milk, is not even available in its country of orgin.

[Beagle]

I'm disappointed with NZ marketing. It shouldn't be here. NZ is too small a market and the resource should be being applied to larger / higher volume / higher margin markets than the local pak n save.

Light proof container and 50/50 mix with Canterbury Cream. I'm very happy its here lol

[minimoke]

Light proof container and 50/50 mix with Canterbury Cream. I'm very happy its here lolNo Canterbury Creme for me for a while. Portfolio has taken a major hit during the weeks I was away. Nothing to celebrate there! (other than TRA nearly recouping my HBL losses. Still able to carry an overall 23% gain on ATM though)

[Beagle]

No Canterbury Creme for me for a while. Portfolio has taken a major hit during the weeks I was away. Nothing to celebrate there! (other than TRA nearly recouping my HBL losses. Still able to carry an overall 23% gain on ATM though)

I've had nothing to celebrate recently either....but I'm laying the foundations for better performance for the rest of the financial year to 31 March 2019, (hopefully)

[bonne vie]

Yes also noticed it in New World Greenmeadows (Napier) today for the first time - 1 litre $3.99. So it looks like it would be a great time to start some more high profile marketing " Want to drink milk but can't - maybe A2 milk is your answer"

[MikeE]

Spotted in New World Papakura packaged in the Anchor bottles. Never seen it anywhere in Papakura until today. Looks like it’s starting to roll out big time...

[silu]

My only contact in the US (Dallas) reports that soccer mums drive between Whole Foods and Sprouts Farmers market to buy up A2 milk. And if you got that market in the US you should sail pretty nicely. Looking forward to read about the US growth when A2 next updates the market.
In the meantime I'm happy that I finally can taste A2 Milk as my local finally stocks it. I haven't drank milk in years - is it like riding a bike?

[minimoke]

M. I haven't drank milk in years - is it like riding a bike?No its not. Research has shown that intestinal gut problems arise primarily due to the speed A1/A2 protein hits the gut when drinking in a vertical position.

Studies using blinds and placebos have shown that the best technique is to place the gullet in a horizontal position and ingest solely A2 protein milk. This will ensure the gut isn't exposed to A1 and also the A2 has a longer time to be absorbed into stomach lining.

Also gone is the old fashioned "glass of milk". Drinking from a plastic mug has shown the hydrocarbons attach to the milk protein molecules so those mugs are out. Best now to use china or fired clay based vessels.

Ideal temperature is 4 degrees - this will ensure the floral grassy notes remain true to the nose which ensures maximum flavour profiles. Too cold and you may as well be drinking ice. Too warm - well that's solely for the Milo.

I am emailing ATM with the hope they will post a Youtube clip with precise instructions on how to best consume this product to get maximum value.

[silu]

No its not. Research has shown that intestinal gut problems arise primarily due to the speed A1/A2 protein hits the gut when drinking in a vertical position.

Studies using blinds and placebos have shown that the best technique is to place the gullet in a horizontal position and ingest solely A2 protein milk. This will ensure the gut isn't exposed to A1 and also the A2 has a longer time to be absorbed into stomach lining.

Also gone is the old fashioned "glass of milk". Drinking from a plastic mug has shown the hydrocarbons attach to the milk protein molecules so those mugs are out. Best now to use china or fired clay based vessels.

Ideal temperature is 4 degrees - this will ensure the floral grassy notes remain true to the nose which ensures maximum flavour profiles. Too cold and you may as well be drinking ice. Too warm - well that's solely for the Milo.

I am emailing ATM with the hope they will post a Youtube clip with precise instructions on how to best consume this product to get maximum value.

Thank you. I needed these clear instructions. I still haven't recovered from the great milk pour debacle live on Austrian TV 1986 https://youtu.be/DuYLgEstc1Y

[minimoke]

Thank you. I needed these clear instructions. I still haven't recovered from the great milk pour debacle live on Austrian TV 1986 https://youtu.be/DuYLgEstc1YIf you are a follower of history you will see the problem first arose when the communists started getting rid of silver tops of glass bottles. Things have never been the same since!

[silu]

Fonterra moves to a2 milk production
"Fergusson says a2 production will "start small," and is coming from one Fonterra dairy farm in the Manawatu but this will "grow over time."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/dairy-industry/news/article.cfm?c_id=168&objectid=12095631

[carrom74]

Fonterra moves to a2 milk production
"Fergusson says a2 production will "start small," and is coming from one Fonterra dairy farm in the Manawatu but this will "grow over time."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/dairy-industry/news/article.cfm?c_id=168&objectid=12095631

That"s an awesome news.Thanks for sharing.....

This will spruce up the price.

[RTM]

Thank you. I needed these clear instructions. I still haven't recovered from the great milk pour debacle live on Austrian TV 1986 https://youtu.be/DuYLgEstc1Y

Thanks...that has really started my afternoon well.
Disc. Still not a holder. I am concerned that if the science is really valid, then the whole industry will simply over time switch to cows which produce A2 Milk. Still....Apple are still doing well. So room for a premium producer I guess.

[t.rexjr]

Thanks...that has really started my afternoon well.
Disc. Still not a holder. I am concerned that if the science is really valid, then the whole industry will simply over time switch to cows which produce A2 Milk. Still....Apple are still doing well. So room for a premium producer I guess.

The fact that Fonterra are in partnership with A2 should substantially alleviate that concern given Fonterra are the worlds largest exporter of dairy products... And they are partners...

[silu]

The fact that Fonterra are in partnership with A2 should substantially alleviate that concern given Fonterra are the worlds largest exporter of dairy products... And they are partners...

And Fonterra needs to change and move away from commodity products. Very interesting article in Newsroom (which slowly becomes my favourite news website) about Fonterra. https://pro.newsroom.co.nz/articles/3720-fonterra-changes-board-chair-but-not-culture-or-strategy

[RTM]

The fact that Fonterra are in partnership with A2 should substantially alleviate that concern given Fonterra are the worlds largest exporter of dairy products... And they are partners...

It reduces my concern for sure that the science is not valid. But then my bigger concern is that it becomes commoditised...(is that a word ?) in the same way that Samsung etc did after Apple introduced the Smart Phone. If the whole industry is on A2 Milk...then where has their advantage gone ?
I'm probably completely off track.....but that is why I don't hold ATM. Some exposure thru SML.

[minimoke]

It reduces my concern for sure that the science is not valid. But then my bigger concern is that it becomes commoditised...(is that a word ?) in the same way that Samsung etc did after Apple introduced the Smart Phone. If the whole industry is on A2 Milk...then where has their advantage gone ? .
How long do you think this will take. I'm enjoying the ride in the meantime

[dobby41]

How long do you think this will take. I'm enjoying the ride in the meantime

I think this is the best answer to the question.
You don't have to hold the stock forever if you buy it now.

[minimoke]

The fact that Fonterra are in partnership with A2 should substantially alleviate that concern given Fonterra are the worlds largest exporter of dairy products... And they are partners...The local availability of A2 doesn't move me.

But I have just returned from holiday in SE Asia. What did move me was one country has oodles and oodles of powdered milk powder including infant formula. But no A2. So ripe for the picking. And in another country some milk powder but not much. However two important things: One can was specifically targeted at those with "lactose intolerance". And secondly and most importantly it was the most expensive tin on the rack. That can be tomorrows market.

And even more encouragement - the only butter I came across was Anchor - so distribution channels are already in play.

[t.rexjr]

If the whole industry is on A2 Milk...then where has their advantage gone?

I'd hope that if the entire industry was A2 then Fonterra's entire inventory would fall under the partnership agreement. First mover advantage now set in stone...

That's probably wishful thinking but A2 would have some protection built into the agreement.

[RTM]

I'd hope that if the entire industry was A2 then Fonterra's entire inventory would fall under the partnership agreement. First mover advantage now set in stone...

That's probably wishful thinking but A2 would have some protection built into the agreement.

It won't be just Fonterra / NZ that we need to be thinking about. Someone sometime ago posted a CNN ? link that reviewed A2 milk. I can't recall if ATM was mentioned...maybe not. But the inference from the clip was that if science valid...then not impossible to switch over time.


MM...I don't have any idea of the time, but perhaps quicker than you think. ...and Dobby...I agree. However I am generally not a trader.


Hence, they are not in my portfolio...and yes...have missed out on a lot.

[dobby41]

MM...I don't have any idea of the time, but perhaps quicker than you think. ...and Dobby...I agree. However I am generally not a trader.

Trading implies a short timespan.
I think you would have a few years before it becomes a commodity and loses first mover advantage.
I think it will happen but not for a while.

[winner69]

Trading implies a short timespan.
I think you would have a few years before it becomes a commodity and loses first mover advantage.
I think it will happen but not for a while.

Trading doesn’t imply a short timespan

A successful trade can last many years

Like my trade with SUM is now over 5 years. My trade with RBD is about 10 years

Never ‘invested’ per se in either — just instigated a trade which I’ve never closed.

[Ggcc]

I read it would take about 10 years before a farm can be 99% A2 cows only that was found in a previous link shown on this thread. That gives plenty of time for ATM to grow.

[Valuegrowth]

How long will A2 premiums last?If many farmers in New Zealand, Australia and worldwide produce more A2, will there be a premium for it?

[Scooter]

A2 milk that I used to buy was $4.90 for 2 litres, now Fonterra branded A2 milks is being sold $6.39 for 2 litres, Fonterra's greedy mits are on it

[Yoda]

both ATM and SML seem to be having the MAs challenged of late. They both seemed to have stalled for a short while and may bee seeing a down turn. Good analysis on
I am out of both for now. but probably not a good idea, but have cash waiting.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - SML is still sitting above the MA50 (and all higher MA's). You call that "MAs challenged"?

[bull....]

my short still looking good in the current down trend

[Southern_Belle]

A2 milk that I used to buy was $4.90 for 2 litres, now Fonterra branded A2 milks is being sold $6.39 for 2 litres, Fonterra's greedy mits are on it

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12098520

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder what the royalty is for A2...…??

[tipsy]

A2 milk that I used to buy was $4.90 for 2 litres, now Fonterra branded A2 milks is being sold $6.39 for 2 litres, Fonterra's greedy mits are on it

I also grabbed the Fresha Valley A2 last night for $4.90 (It always seems to be sold out at the local Countdown), gotta say it was some of the best milk I've had, will need to compare it to the Anchor brand when I come across it.

I see Fresha Valley converted their suppliers farm to an A2 herd in 2years.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2_McEm9Byc

[minimoke]

Meh - I still get my two litres of trim for $3 at the local dairy

[Ggcc]

Meh - I still get my two litres of trim for $3 at the local dairy
You can’t be invested haha

[777]

Those that get it, does it actually taste any different?

[couta1]

Meh - I still get my two litres of trim for $3 at the local dairy Cheap because it's over 90% water.

[minimoke]

You can’t be invested hahawe get through more than 14 litres a week I'm waiting for an ATM dividend so I can afford an upgrade

[Ggcc]

we get through more than 14 litres a week I'm waiting for an ATM dividend so I can afford an upgrade
There really is a difference in flavour, for the full cream I admit.

I also do understand sometimes a budget is necessary with a family. Hopefully one day you get to try the difference

[h2so4]

we get through more than 14 litres a week I'm waiting for an ATM dividend so I can afford an upgrade

We used to drink it until I discovered the cheap milk contains trans fats. Check the nutritional label but it might be that only Australian governments allow that.

We then paid a premium for farm gate milk and now we are happy with the a2 from our supermarket.

It makes delicious thick homemade yoghurt and I can enjoy a cup of coffee without having to continually clear my throat after it.

[minimoke]

We used to drink it until I discovered the cheap milk contains trans fats. Check the nutritional label but it might be that only Australian governments allow that.

We then paid a premium for farm gate milk and now we are happy with the a2 from our supermarket.

It makes delicious thick homemade yoghurt and I can enjoy a cup of coffee without having to continually clear my throat after it.
Well lets just look at my 2l of Dairy Dale. vs A2 Milk per 100ml
Energy 180 Kj's vs 275
Protein 4.1g vs 3.3g (min. 1.0g A2 beta)
total fat 0.5g vs 3.5g
saturated fat 0.4g vs 2.4g
total carbs 5.5g vs 5.0
sugars 5.5g vs 4.7g
sodium 50mg vs 33mg

calcium 150mg vs 109mg
$3 per 2l vs $4.90 per 2l

Better on my hips, better for my wallet. Better for the spawns teeth. Better than Coke.

And for teh record Budget vs premium milk just the same: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/448875/Budget-and-premium-milk-just-the-same

[minimoke]

$3 per 2l vs $4.90 per 2l

And while I'm at it because Im sure we are going to get the bleeding hearts banging on about child poverdy in the next few days. 1.5l of Coke for $2.00 at Countdown and on special down from $3.40. There is simply no excuse for not providing milk to a household if coke is being consumed

[tipsy]

$3 is super cheap, anchor 2L at countdown range from 4.50 - 5.50 odd.

[longy]

If I have A2 in the fridge along with other brands. My seven years old would go for A2 first always.

[longy]

And while I'm at it because Im sure we are going to get the bleeding hearts banging on about child poverdy in the next few days. 1.5l of Coke for $2.00 at Countdown and on special down from $3.40. There is simply no excuse for not providing milk to a household if coke is being consumed

Still those bottle of Pump water is worse isn't it... some $3 for 500ml? It is hard to imagine but that works out to be more than the cost of petrol!

[Yoda]

Hmm - SML is still sitting above the MA50 (and all higher MA's). You call that "MAs challenged"?
Yes you are right of course, but ATM is a bit challenged i think. I was wrong about SML and hopefully it doesn't go the same way. Thanks for the correction .

[Joshuatree]

Craigs have an updated buy on ATM and sell on SML fwiw

[bull....]

Craigs have an updated buy on ATM and sell on SML fwiw

is there target price lower than last time though? or higher

[bohemian]

46 page report. Shivers that's a lot of reading. All I want is what they think it's worth, $13.50 from Craigs will do me. Might be time to climb back in.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12098520

[Dust]

This is what....the 5th red day in a row? My bags are getting heavy

[bull....]

Craigs have an updated buy on ATM and sell on SML fwiw

hasnt helped the share price

[Dust]

hasnt helped the share price

Thats because aussies and asia are in the drivers seat and Craigs' a nobody to them...

[bull....]

Thats because aussies and asia are in the drivers seat and Craigs' a nobody to them...

yup thats the reality the big money is based overseas so a broker note from hong kong or aussie will carry more weight.

[see weed]

Most of the sellers are small holders, looking at the volume on the ASX are selling less than 1000 shares each. It can only go down so far before the takeover offer comes through;). Then what?.......:t_up: Good chance now for topping up bits and pieces on the way down. When all the shareholders stop selling, then the sp will stop going down:D. Don't forget, the story hasn't changed. So stop selling everyone and see what happens.

[Beagle]

Most of the sellers are small holders, looking at the volume on the ASX are selling less than 1000 shares each. It can only go down so far before the takeover offer comes through;). Then what?.......:t_up: Good chance now for topping up bits and pieces on the way down. When all the small shareholders stop selling, then the sp will stop going down:D.

Hi mate,
I get some comfort from telling myself that there's perhaps something like a maximum downside of $1 from here but long term the upside is clearly a multi dollar per share prospect. I could be delusional but it makes me feel better telling myself these things lol.

[Ggcc]

Hi mate,
I get some comfort from telling myself that there's perhaps something like a maximum downside of $1 from here but long term the upside is clearly a multi dollar per share prospect. I could be delusional but it makes me feel better telling myself these things lol.
I have no intention on selling. The story hasn’t changed and with Craig’s saying they will get $1.4 billion turnover 2019 (can’t find that reference, but the same as harbour asset management). If they get that total turnover, I see a sp considerably higher than what is is now.

Of course it depends on future competition, but I feel they don’t have anything major aiming at A2, other than nestle (atwo) and small players in the distant future........

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/a2-expects-more-1b-2019-sales

Found it

[longy]

Most of the sellers are small holders, looking at the volume on the ASX are selling less than 1000 shares each. It can only go down so far before the takeover offer comes through;). Then what?.......:t_up: Good chance now for topping up bits and pieces on the way down. When all the shareholders stop selling, then the sp will stop going down:D. Don't forget, the story hasn't changed. So stop selling everyone and see what happens.

I have been accumulating. I am liking the story so far. Yes, the volume is small and that has provided me with some comfort. However, I am looking forward to the next announcement, just a few weeks away.

[Joshuatree]

4.5 mill on ASX and 1.25 mill on the NZX is hardly small guys. and you are aware that bots etc feed the shares in in small lots endlessly and of hidden iceberg sellers etc i hope. So no we hav e no idea who is selling and how big or tiddly they are imo. T/A wise its broken down through the 60 and 180 DMA on my admittedly basic ASB chart. wishful thinking re takeover or have you seen some smoke?

[777]

Hosking interviewed the new CEO this morning about 7-40am.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/jayne-hrdlicka-fonterras-anchor-set-to-launch-a2-milk-in-north-island/

[winner69]

How much does A2 make out of every sale of Anchor A2 milk?

[bull....]

hrdlicker interview - not the mike hosking one

New a2 milk CEO Hrdlicka says China success requires strategy beyond daigous


https://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/new-a2-milk-ceo--hrdlicka-says-china-success-requires-strategy-beyond-daigous-20180801-h13epb


talk about straegies , the weak share price and downgraded revenue and tie up with fonterra

[winner69]

hrdlicker interview - not the mike hosking one

New a2 milk CEO Hrdlicka says China success requires strategy beyond daigous


https://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/new-a2-milk-ceo--hrdlicka-says-china-success-requires-strategy-beyond-daigous-20180801-h13epb


talk about straegies , the weak share price and downgraded revenue and tie up with fonterra

This is good news and reassuring ....”Despite moderating the growth rate in 2018, a2 expects further revenue growth in 2019 .......”

Lots of good stuff in the article ......will give the believers the warm fuzzies .....and reinforce the thinking that ATM is a $20 share next year

[bull....]

This is good news and reassuring ....”Despite moderating the growth rate in 2018, a2 expects further revenue growth in 2019 .......”

off the downgraded revenue figure and still on a high 35x earnings.

[winner69]

off the downgraded revenue figure and still on a high 35x earnings.

I was a bit confused about that comment that ‘the model is all but broken’

Hate broken business models

[bull....]

I was a bit confused about that comment that ‘the model is all but broken’

Hate broken business models

think that was bal they talked about and the big issues they are facing in china. its important to note that bal is facing hold ups now in approvals etc because of aussie not being in chinas good books a big potential problem for a2 which could happen by association

[sb9]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/jayne-hrdlicka-fonterras-anchor-set-to-launch-a2-milk-in-north-island/

Link to Hosking's interview with Jayne this morning.

[longy]

I was a bit confused about that comment that ‘the model is all but broken’

Hate broken business models

On the print article it said "and that A2's model is 'far from broken" and has not been impacted so far by Nestlel's rival A2 product launch"

[RGR367]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/jayne-hrdlicka-fonterras-anchor-set-to-launch-a2-milk-in-north-island/

Link to Hosking's interview with Jayne this morning.

Appreciated the way she answered the questions :t_up: May she lead this company to the next level whatever that maybe.

[Dust]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/jayne-hrdlicka-fonterras-anchor-set-to-launch-a2-milk-in-north-island/

Link to Hosking's interview with Jayne this morning.

Whats with Hoskings asking pointless questions about the NZ economic environment..it's such a small market relative to A2's other ambitions. We all know under thew new govt the local economy's going down the gutter anyway

[dobby41]

Whats with Hoskings asking pointless questions about the NZ economic environment..it's such a small market relative to A2's other ambitions. We all know under thew new govt the local economy's going down the gutter anyway

I'm no fan of Mike Hosking but 30sec out of 6+ minutes on the NZ economy - hardly an issue.

[Dust]

I'm no fan of Mike Hosking but 30sec out of 6+ minutes on the NZ economy - hardly an issue.

I would argue the rest of the 5 and half min was more or less rubbish also. How about questioning their increased spending in asia and US and how that fits inline with their long term growth strategy. Maybe something on regulatory risks and offline channel executions..

[dobby41]

I would argue the rest of the 5 and half min was more or less rubbish also. How about questioning their increased spending in asia and US and how that fits inline with their long term growth strategy. Maybe something on regulatory risks and offline channel executions..

You are asking a bit much for indepth analysis from Mike - his whole show is little more than fluff.

[minimoke]

100,000 crossed at $10.34. Hopefully that's the new low established and its only upwards from here

[BlackPeter]

100,000 crossed at $10.34. Hopefully that's the new low established and its only upwards from here

Don't forget the gap around 940;

[minimoke]

Don't forget the gap around 940;I prefer to ignore things I dont like the look of.

[see weed]

100,000 crossed at $10.34. Hopefully that's the new low established and its only upwards from here

I picked up some after lunch for $10.12, but only half the order went through. So am hoping that is new low. If not, then maybe buy more tomorrow for 9.99.

[Valuegrowth]

Still it has some support but at some point there could be pullback for it as well because it has appreciated lot over the last five years and trading at a PE ratio of over 50.

[777]

Still it has some support but at some point there could be pullback for it as well because it has appreciated lot over the last five years and trading at a PE ratio of over 50.

What do you call a pullback? It has already pulled back from $14 plus.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12099688&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+3+Au gust+2018

[Dust]

What do you call a pullback? It has already pulled back from $14 plus.

yawn...you'd have to take another 50% off the price for these 'value investors' to consider it a bargain. Trust me they've been calling it overvalued since $2/share:confused:

[Nasi Goreng]

I picked up some after lunch for $10.12, but only half the order went through. So am hoping that is new low. If not, then maybe buy more tomorrow for 9.99.

Has see weed called it again?

[Joshuatree]

Like the tide is always going one way or t'other.:D

[Joshuatree]

25/05/ 2005

The share consolidation has been a bit of a disaster falling from $0.40 (or $0.08 per old share) to about $0.20 (or $0.04 per old share).

No news about the IdeaSphere payment of US$400,000

Classic situation - gloom and despondancy grows around the perception that a small biotech is failing to make revenue targets.

Further, Jim Guthrie has resigned at seeming short notice from the board due to ill health. It seems being an ATM Director is a very hazardous occupation.

More gloom and despondancy that maybe the firm leadership is not stable and strong.

Next opportunity for an information update is the agm on the 29th June.

Prognosis: gloomy with outbreaks of despondancy until either the new strategy seems proven or fails. The share price will either go up significantly or go down significantly - cannot see it staying where it is much longer.

still in Enumarate, still with us?

[minimoke]

25/05/ 2005


still in Enumarate, still with us?I'm not sure that's entirely fair. Likely there are forum members here who weren't even born when that was posted.

[Ggcc]

I thought I mentioned to everyone that investing more into Synlait was a great option!! Well done ATM

[minimoke]

I thought I mentioned to everyone that investing more into Synlait was a great option!! Well done ATM


The a2 Milk Company ("a2MC") is pleased to announce it will increase its


shareholding in Synlait Milk Limited.





a2MC will acquire, through a subsidiary, an additional ~8.2% of the fully


paid ordinary shares in Synlait from Mitsui & Co. at a price of NZ$10.90 per


share for total consideration of ~NZ$161.8m. This represents a modest


discount to the NZX one month volume weighted average price of NZ$11.16.

[sb9]

I thought I mentioned to everyone that investing more into Synlait was a great option!! Well done ATM

Yes, great strategic move by new CEO. Bright Dairy and A2 together now own more than 50% of Synlait.

Next target, buy back A2 shares or dividend announcement.

[minimoke]

At had over $240m cash at end of december. Not a bad way of spending some of it. (bet they have added to that in the meantime!)

[minimoke]

Jeez this market is a bloody tough sandpit to be playing in at the moment. Seemingly good news and all we get is a 0.02% rise to $10.44 at the moment.

[sb9]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/fonterra-confident-of-a2-milk-success

[kiora]

At had over $240m cash at end of december. Not a bad way of spending some of it. (bet they have added to that in the meantime!)

Hmmm,not so sure investing in manufacturing better than retailing/marketing.Can't think of an example when it has. Synlait manufacturing margin is 10% ,outlook 15%?,ATM 33%,outlook 31%?

[minimoke]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/fonterra-confident-of-a2-milk-successOf course it wil be a suces. We have so many digestive tract problems, ADHD kids, autoimmune problems the worried wealthy will flock to this new product.

[kiora]

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/fonterra-confident-of-a2-milk-success

Struth!
Fonterra A2 milk sourced from only 1 farm!Hope it has great bio security in place !

[mshierlaw]

Hmmm,not so sure investing in manufacturing better than retailing/marketing.Can't think of an example when it has. Synlait manufacturing margin is 10% ,outlook 15%?,ATM 33%,outlook 31&?

Totally agree, ATM is not a milk processing business, better things to spend $$$$ on IMHO.

[Beagle]

ATM very recently re-inked a multi year supply contract with Synlait. We are not privy to the margin that Synlait will be making on those new supply arrangements but ATM is. (Just a thought).

[Sideshow Bob]

I have seen quoted that Fonterra's A2 is about 50c/litre dearer than other premium Anchor brands. Presumably somewhere around this figure is A2's royalty out of it?

Supply out of 1 farm is interesting and constrained in the short term, but must have plans to scale up with demand? Challenge Fonterra have is that they aren't paying a premium for A2 over standard supply otherwise puts into question their other supply and their previous stance. But between no supplier premium and also their own 'processing margin' then must be able to supply cheaper than A2/Synlait - but then pay a royalty. I'm sure Fonterra have some way around the supplier premium conundrum.....

[RGR367]

Did not see any 2 litter Anchor/A2 brand at Porirua Pak N Save today and they only have 3 remaining bottles on 1 litter A2/Anchor too. The demand must be really good.

[minimoke]

Did not see any 2 litter Anchor/A2 brand at Porirua Pak N Save today and they only have 3 remaining bottles on 1 litter A2/Anchor too. The demand must be really good.Or supply not great

[NZSilver]

I think a div will be announced, they could easily afford a 10c div.

[bull....]

Did not see any 2 litter Anchor/A2 brand at Porirua Pak N Save today and they only have 3 remaining bottles on 1 litter A2/Anchor too. The demand must be really good.

think your find niche products only command a limited shelf space so volume is limited on display and replenishment depends on how quick shelves are restocked.
anchor has always had the most shelve space cant see them giving that up for a2
other negatives are high price , budget brands of milk are the biggest sellers by volume in supermarkets and a reflection of the nz market. aussie retail milk market is different.

anyway just a few assumptions from my experience in the field

[freddagg]

Hmmm,not so sure investing in manufacturing better than retailing/marketing.Can't think of an example when it has. Synlait manufacturing margin is 10% ,outlook 15%?,ATM 33%,outlook 31%?

It certainly seems an odd decision to me. Why are they buying overpriced stainless steel instead of using every dollar they have to grow the company. Does it mean that they do not see much more growth being achievable?

[carrom74]

9836Pak N Save Mt.Albert(one of the busiest in Central Auckland)... 8pm.7 bottles left in 2 lit and 2 in 1 lit.Either the stocking/supply is low or it just a good run today...

[t.rexjr]

9836Pak N Save Mt.Albert(one of the busiest in Central Auckland)... 8pm.7 bottles left in 2 lit and 2 in 1 lit.Either the stocking/supply is low or it just a good run today...

A good 30 bottles in TA many about to expire (5th). I note the labelling does not convey any insight other than the obvious. You have to know what it is to know what it is.

[Valuegrowth]

As valuation has stretched it could have correction (pull back) especially during bear market. Current bull market will end at some point. Cycle will follow. As I said it could happen over the next 12 months. Currently, it has support around $10. If ATM breaks that I don’t rule out trading it below $9.


What do you call a pullback? It has already pulled back from $14 plus.

[hardt]

In order to grow, sml have to allocate limited resources and assets... They want a bigger say in how things operate.as their needs continue to grow into the future.

Also, I believe synlait might be looking into developing their own brands... Moving the way of fonterra for their next stage of growth.

[winner69]

Appreciated the way she answered the questions :t_up: May she lead this company to the next level whatever that maybe.

Somebody behind the scenes at A2 is doing a really good job getting the A2 name out to the investing world

Plenty of exposure in the USA media etc and doing well in this part of the world.

Important for us shareholders they keep the hype up

[Dust]

As valuation has stretched it could have correction (pull back) especially during bear market. Current bull market will end at some point. Cycle will follow. As I said it could happen over the next 12 months. Currently, it has support around $10. If ATM breaks that I don’t rule out trading it below $9.

Whats your thesis for a bear market in the next 12 month? Global economics are the strongest its ever been and most companies are reporting double digit growth through to 2020

[silu]

A little anecdote from yesterday. Went to New World, Lunn Ave to check out the new Anchor/A2 Milk isle. Had one row each for the Blue and Lite and while I was taking one another person took one then another. Stood there for 5 min during which at least 6 1l bottles were picked up.

[Nasi Goreng]

A little anecdote from yesterday. Went to New World, Lunn Ave to check out the new Anchor/A2 Milk isle. Had one row each for the Blue and Lite and while I was taking one another person took one then another. Stood there for 5 min during which at least 6 1l bottles were picked up.

I wonder how many people buy them by accident. They look like regular anchor bottles with an a2 badge. Were those 6 bottles picked up on the fly or do you think the buyers were looking for the a2 bottle?

[silu]

I wonder how many people buy them by accident. They look like regular anchor bottles with an a2 badge. Were those 6 bottles picked up on the fly or do you think the buyers were looking for the a2 bottle?

fwiw - they were all women. From what I've noticed (didn't want to stare or make other shoppers feel uncomfortable) they did look at the logo almost as if "I've heard about A2 Milk. Lets give it a go". A couple of them read the label very carefully before putting it in their trolley. I don't think too many will pick it up by mistake. The higher price point was clearly labelled.

[hardt]

I often hear people at countdown asking staff specifically for A2.

The most popular milk in AUS with millennials is translating into NZ very well.

I have bought 5 bottles for family and friends to try.
3 people said they "felt the difference"... Be it placebo or not. Regular milk bloats me the house down and A2 simply doesn't.

Often the people who don't believe the A2 proposition do not have issues with regular milk

[minimoke]

A little anecdote from yesterday. Went to New World, Lunn Ave to check out the new Anchor/A2 Milk isle. Had one row each for the Blue and Lite and while I was taking one another person took one then another. Stood there for 5 min during which at least 6 1l bottles were picked up.Whenever I go to the dairy for my Dairy Dale I always get 6 x 2 litres. Saves going to the shop too often. And its only $18

[silu]

I often hear people at countdown asking staff specifically for A2.

The most popular milk in AUS with millennials is translating into NZ very well.

I have bought 5 bottles for family and friends to try.
3 people said they "felt the difference"... Be it placebo or not. Regular milk bloats me the house down and A2 simply doesn't.

Often the people who don't believe the A2 proposition do not have issues with regular milk

So far so good for me. I myself haven't used milk in years. Not that it gave me any bad reactions I couldn't live with but I always noticed the (sorry for honesty) extra bowel movement or flatulence. Now 2 weeks after using A2 Milk daily in my protein shake I didn't notice any difference at all. Not sure if I will continue buying A2 milk as water is doing the trick in my shakes also but, scientifically proven or not, I do feel better and that's what counts right?

[minimoke]

So far so good for me. I myself haven't used milk in years. Not that it gave me any bad reactions I couldn't live with but I always noticed the (sorry for honesty) extra bowel movement or flatulence. Now 2 weeks after using A2 Milk daily in my protein shake I didn't notice any difference at all. No difference with your extra bowel movement or flatulence pre A2 or no difference from your old days experiences. (if you are after protein my Dairy Dale trumps A2)

[silu]

No difference with your extra bowel movement or flatulence pre A2 or no difference from your old days experiences. (if you are after protein my Dairy Dale trumps A2)

No difference to my daily routine so I drank milk and nothing happened (as it should be). But I should have made the disclaimer that my overall health and lifestyle is better now than it used to be. But if I were a milk drinking customer from this experience alone I would never to back to normal milk.

[steveb]

Whenever I go to the dairy for my Dairy Dale I always get 6 x 2 litres. Saves going to the shop too often. And its only $18
How's your cholesterol level?

[dobby41]

Often the people who don't believe the A2 proposition do not have issues with regular milk

It's not that I don't believe the proposition of A2 milk but, since I don't have any problem with regular milk, why would I change to something more expensive?

If it works for someone then that is good, if it doesn't matter then that is good too.