ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[TideMan]

Big order?

200,000 at 13:15 at $0.97

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-gets-dhb-support-cxbladder-db-151683

[airedale]

Is there a link between bladder cancer and A2 milk?

[Hawkeye]

Is there a link between bladder cancer and A2 milk?

I dont know how this ended up on this thread, I had a bit of trouble posting the link last night for unknown reasons it kept timing out, I was looking at both threads so clearly I closed PEB at one point and put the link on this one, my mistake, sorry

[airedale]

ah yes, but who sold nearly 4 million shares?

So the answer is Milford Asset Management: Today announced that they reduced their holding from 11% down to 9.6%.

[airedale]

I dont know how this ended up on this thread, I had a bit of trouble posting the link last night for unknown reasons it kept timing out, I was looking at both threads so clearly I closed PEB at one point and put the link on this one, my mistake, sorry

No problem, Hawkeye, wouldn't it be nice if they had proved that A2 milk could cure cancer.;)

[hilskin]

The below article is a post by Keith Woodford who consults as an independent adviser to A2. I remember seeing this study mentioned before christmas but haven't herd anything since. Just maybe science is starting to get some traction and with a few more studies like this just maybe, just maybe we will be only be milking A2 cows????? Long way to go yet but the future is starting to look very interesting.
A1 beta-casein, gut inflammation and immune reactions (http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/a1-beta-casein-gut-inflammation-and-immune-reactions/)Posted on January 6, 2014 (http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/a1-beta-casein-gut-inflammation-and-immune-reactions/)
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/a1-beta-casein-gut-inflammation-and-immune-reactions/#more-918
by Keith Woodford (http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/author/keithwoodford/)
A recent paper published in the European Journal of Nutrition provides particularly strong evidence that A1 beta-casein causes gut inflammation and associated immune effects relative to A2 beta-casein. The trials were conducted with mice and, using normal scientific criteria, the results are sufficiently strong that the differences under these research conditions can be described as ‘conclusive’.
This research has the potential to give a great boost to the campaign against A1 beta-casein. Milks that are free of A1 beta casein include all goat milk, all sheep milk, all pure Asian cattle, and all ‘A2 milk’ from cattle. Human milk is also free of A1 beta-casein. It is only the milk from a large proportion of European-origin cattle that produce the mutant A1 beta-casein.
The work was conducted at the Animal Biochemistry Division at the National Dairy Research Institute in India. The lead author is Dr Mohammad Raies Ul Haq.
The trial had four groups of mice. The control group were fed a standard diet of mice chow. The other groups were fed the same chow but in addition were dosed each day with 85 mg (less than one tenth of a gram) of beta-casein of either the A1 type (written as A1A1), or the A2 type (written as A2A2) or an A1A2 mix. The control group were dosed with a saline fluid to maintain comparability of handling.
In all, the trial produced statistically significant difference for eleven different measures of digestive function. These include a range of inflammation markers, various types of antibodies, and immunity regulators.
In the interests of brevity, in this post I will present the figures for just two of the measures, these being intestinal myeloperoxidase (MPO) and interleukin-4 (IL-4). Other physiological measures for which statistically significant differences were found, but which I don’t present here, include monocyte chemotactic protein-1, IgE, IgG, IgG1, IgG2a, IgA, TLR-4, and TLR-2.
Myeloperoxidase (MPO)
MPO is an enzyme contained within neutrophils, which are a type of white blood cell. MPO is widely regarded as a classic marker of inflammation. Elevated levels of MPO are also associated with increased risk of heart disease and there is an extensive medical literature on this.
In the figure below taken from the Ul Haq paper, it is evident that whereas there is no difference between the control and A2A2 treatment, the MPO levels are considerably higher for both the A1A2 and the A1A1 treatments. The common letter ‘a’ for the control and A2A2 treatments indicates that any apparent differences between the control and the A2A2 treatment are statistically non-significant. However, because the other treatments have different letters above them, this indicates that the MPO levels for the A1A2 and A1A1 treatments are statistically significantly different both to the other treatments and to each other. The small lines above each treatment are called ‘error bars’ and provide to those trained in statistics a visual indication of the confidence that can be held in the apparent differences being real and repeatable. Within the text of the paper, it is reported that “feeding of A1A1 and A1A2 beta-casein variants increased MPO activity in murine [mouse] intestine (p<0.01) by 204.20 and 43.54% respectively, compared to control group mice”

http://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/ul-haq-myeloperoxidase.png?w=640 (http://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/ul-haq-myeloperoxidase.png)Intestinal myeloperoxidase

Interleukin-4
Interleukin-4 (Il-4) leads to development of a particular type of T cells called Th2 cells. An increase in Th2 production is an immune response; i.e. the body is reacting against a foreign substance. Overproduction of IL-4 is also associated with some allergies, including eczema, asthma and urticaria (hives).
In the graph below it is evident that there is no difference between interleukin-4 production between the control and A2A2 treatments. (They both have a common letter ‘a’.) However the values for the A1A1 and A1A2 treatments are both much higher. The text states that “the current study revealed an increase (p<0.01) in IL-4 levels in murine intestinal fluid on consumption of A1A1 and A1A2 beta-casein variants by 266.12 and 277.41% compared to control group mice”. (Remember that dealing in percentages can sometimes be a little confusing. An increase of 266% means that the levels had been increased by a factor of 3.66 times.)

http://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/ul-haq-interleukin-4.png?w=640 (http://keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/ul-haq-interleukin-4.png)Interleukin-4

So what does this mean?
For quite some time the science has been very clear that A1 beta-casein digests differently than A2 beta-casein , i.e. that beta-casomorphin-7 (BCM-7) is released from the A1 but not the A2 beta-casein. However, it has not previously been proven in a trial situation that this leads to physiological responses by the immune system. What Ul Haq and colleagues have shown is that not only do such differences occur but they are profound. In summary, the results of this study show unequivocally that ‘there is a difference’.
These proven differences in relation to physiological functioning do not in themselves prove that the A1 beta casein causes any particular disease. However, where there is smoke there is almost certainly going to be fire. The results fit perfectly with prior claims relating to digestive function, a range of auto immune conditions, and heart disease.
Is there a counter argument?
It is inevitable that the mainstream dairy industry will try to downplay these results. What else can they do in the battle for survival? However, the challenge for those who wish to argue against this paper is that:
a) The research protocol is very strong
b) The results are very strong from a statistical perspective.
c) The paper has been through peer review and is published in a highly rated international journal.
Nevertheless, my expectation is that the paper will be attacked on multiple grounds, to all of which there is a counter.


The attack: This work was undertaken in mice. How do we know the same effects will occur in humans?
The answer: For obvious reasons, many trials can only be done with animals. Mice are an accepted model for investigating intestinal conditions. The structure of the intestines of mice and humans is fundamentally very similar, as are the enzymes and immune systems.
The attack: This research needs to be repeated in a Western country before we can place credence on the results.
The answer: Undertaking similar trials in other countries would and will reinforce the very strong messages of this trial. Indeed I am aware of a trial in a Western country, which has been completed but not yet published, that will confirm key results of the Ul Haq study.
The attack: The amounts of beta-casein used in this trial were high. Many substances if fed in high enough doses will have nasty effects.
The answer: The dose rate of beta-casein appears to be broadly similar to what a mouse might eat on an all milk diet, given that mice are voracious eaters. But the key issue is that the effect only occurs with the A1 beta-casein and not the A2 beta-casein. Even if the differences are much less for humans on human diets, this would still be very worrying in terms of the long-term effects.

So in summary, the Ul Haq et al paper is a significant step forward in relation to the ongoing scientific debate about A1 versus A2 beta-casein. I know which side of the debate I want to be on.
Reference:
Ul Haq MR, Kapila R, Sharma R, Saliganta V, Kapila S. 2013 “Comparative evaluation of cow β-casein variants (A1/A2) consumption on Th2-mediated Corporation. inflammatory response in mouse gut”. European Journal of Nutrition. DOI 10.1007/s00394-013-0606-7 [Epub ahead of print].
The Abstract of this paper is shown below (click once on the Abstract for larger view).
Disclosure: Keith Woodford consults as an independent adviser to A2

[MAC]

All contributes to the wealth of literature in support Hilskin, especially for the US and particularly the European market.

Whilst I think the debate may well continue for another couple of decades, and the more debate the better, I just wonder though if there is now enough research completed, one would think, for the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) to review their 2009 findings on A2.

I suspect if this could be achieved, and probably thus the present EU advertising restrictions overcome, then sales may ultimatley boom in the UK and allow a more forthright entry into the continent.

Happy with the UK 1.8% FY16 market share target for the time being though.

http://www.a2milk.co.uk/healthcareprofessionals/
http://www.betacasein.org/

[biker]

Thanks for the article hilskin. Good to see the science behind A2 continuing to strengthen

[MAC]

Has anyone advice on when we should eagerly anticipate the half year report this week ?

[hilskin]

Don't know for sure but their last half year announcement was made on the 27th feb 2013 so expecting something this week.
At a guess i would say the current share price has already factored this in but we could see some slight upward movement before the announcement.
Hoping they mention something for the US but not too worried if they don't. Steady as she goes.

[MAC]

Don't know for sure but their last half year announcement was made on the 27th feb 2013 so expecting something this week.
At a guess i would say the current share price has already factored this in but we could see some slight upward movement before the announcement.
Hoping they mention something for the US but not too worried if they don't. Steady as she goes.

Perhaps so Hilskin, I've ATM valued at HY14 $1.10, will revise for FY14 later in the week.

[hilskin]

I will be very in terested in how baby formula sales are going in China. I am aware of 3 shipments that have left, the 3rd before christmas so would imagine there has been another one which has left or about to leave. Also interested to see where they are at as far as UHT milk in China goes, an agreement to supply and shipments can't be too far away. Quietly confident with this company.

[hilskin]

Your guess is as good as mine at this stage turmeric. Hoping for some more information in the financials but could be well hidden.

[hilskin]

A can of Stage 1 A2 baby formula is selling for 488 Chinese Yuan at the moment. Quite a mark up so will be interesting to see if mothers in China are buying it.

http://a2nutrition.tmall.com/

488 Chinese Yuan equals
$96.77 NZ Dollars

in Australia it is selling for $32.95 at Coles

[baller18]

Money is no object to many wealthy Chinese. In fact, the more things cost the more "status" it has. If parenting is as competitive over there as it has become in the western world, mothers will be rushing to buy "only the best" for their baby. I found when I was in Bejing many brands were marked up well over the retail price that was obtainable in Australia, and that's on brands that are already price gouging here.

On a different note, whilst in Beijing I got to press my nose against the glass of the Bugatti and Pagani show rooms :-)

That is so true KW, to put it in perspective, its scary to think how many rich people there are in china, just say at 5% of 1.351 billion there are close to 70million rich people, and the 5% mentioned are the filfthy rich Chinese people, at 10% that's 135 million. Not including who knows how many built their wealth from corruption.

Scary to think 70 million is nearly 18 times the population of nz... lol sighs...

but who knows ay, the rich prob has infant powder with gold dust in in huh

[iceman]

An interesting development that will worth keeping an eye on !
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11209847

[baller18]

Looking good turmeric, only wish if I had a lot more lol

[MAC]

A fair result and certainly a complex one isn’t it with lots of positive initiatives and developments in all markets now, the more developments the better, though it might take a few days and a bit more head scratching to crunch the numbers on this one.

I would have liked some guidance to have been provided, but can understand the reasons why it would be complex to do so. I’d also like some feedback on how or if they are engaging with the European Food Safety Authority.

It’s good that Geoff has distributed the management a little further also, he’s performed an exceptional job in progressing ATM to where it is today, incredible when you consider the last few years, but it’s becoming a big organisation now. There’s all the potential for this to be one of the biggest New Zealand based multinational in years to come.

Onward and upward with growth in all existing markets and the USA now too.

[iceman]

The report is looking fairly satisfactory at first glance and they seem to be making good progress. Very interesting that they now feel they've done the groundwork (setup) in the UK where sales are improving from a low base and should continue to improve with the new management they have in place there. They are then going to change their groundwork focus to the USA and repeat pretty much what they've done in the UK, setting up a wholly owned subsidiary and recruit local knowhow and expertise.
A bit disappointing though that shipment of the A2 Platinum infant formula to China and Australia in December was delayed due to ingredient supply shortages !

[MAC]

I found that a complex report to tweak the numbers off. I’d be interested in the thoughts and findings of the other FA’s ?.

The AUD is notably an influence and may require some short term consideration for the FY, although the exchange rate seems to have flattened off since the end of the HY reporting period.

Gross margins continue to climb as does the Australian market share. New products and new markets bring new forward revenue streams to consider. I would like to see some pick up now in the UK recognising though that it is a modest FY16 1.8% market share target.

Net margins should remain subdued as ATM reinvest heavily, I see this as a positive.

I’ve revised my FY14 DCF valuation to $1.19, may revise again if the AUD exchange rate were to approach and hold close to parity.

Disc: Accumulate

5558
5559

[Ginger_steps_]

On a different note. We've had a tin of a2 infant formula sitting around for a month or so - for emergencies while Mumma is away. We've had 2 "emergencies" in the last week but my son refused to drink the a2 formula. So I thought I would give it a try myself - it tasted like chalk! I don't blame the lil fella for not wanting it. I sincerely hope some babies out there actually drink it! The a2 milk on the other hand we love. It was an expensive trial but at least I have contributed to the company. Neither of us have had the chance to try any other formula....

Disc: hold

[airedale]

Hi Ginger, as a shareholder you should email the company with the result of your "taste test". Will they give it serious consideration or will the fob you off.?

[Bjauck]

Bjauck, your observation has been kicking about in the back of my mind for a couple of weeks now and today I just happened to update my portfolio Beta calculation.

The twelve month trailing S&P500 Beta for ATM is -0.17, ie: negative.

So yes it has indeed proved to be a defensive stock over the last twelve months.
Interesting to see your analysis backing up my gut feeling! When I bought ATM, it was bought as part of my "tech growth/slightly speculative" portfolio (and CNU was part of my "defensive" portfolio). I guess it Just goes to show the changing dynamics of product lifecycles and the business/political environment.

[Ginger_steps_]

Hi Ginger, as a shareholder you should email the company with the result of your "taste test". Will they give it serious consideration or will the fob you off.?


Interesting read. I can't say I have had the pleasure of tasting a range of baby milk formulas, so I wonder, do other brands taste like chalk too?? IF not then maybe airdale's suggestion is a good one :)

Hmmm I do wonder what they would say. Well there are quite a few young mothers round here these days so I might ask to test taste their formulas. If I find any major difference I will let you know - Geez this sounds ridiculous! And if a2 is noticeably "chalkier" I'll fire off an email to a2. I guess the main difference to a baby would be that its not sweet like mothers milk. Understandably they wouldn't sweeten it for health reasons (or do some?) - I guess I should look at some ingredient differences at the super market too. Will keep you guys up to date on my findings - however weird they may be!

[airedale]

Hi Ginger, if nothing else an email to the Managing Director would give some indication as to how the company deals with shareholders and the public. I am not suggesting that they are not doing the right thing. But wondering if they will come right out and address your concerns.

[MAC]

“A further priority has been to participate with our contract supplier, Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait) in establishing the a2™ Platinum™ supply chain. This incorporates the integrated management of receiving A2 milk from farm, production of a2™ milk powder, blending and packaging of finished product and delivery to customer. As part of this, the Company has developed its own quality processes to manage product integrity throughout the supply chain. In consequence of implementing the new processes and an ingredient supply shortage, we experienced delays in a planned shipment to China and Australia in December.”

I suppose it could be good news that ATM are sucking the herds dry, hopefully this can be addressed quickly though, there maybe an intermediate opportunity to increase production via Synlait due to Synlait’s other customers falling away at present.

[Lease]

“A further priority has been to participate with our contract supplier, Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait) in establishing the a2™ Platinum™ supply chain. This incorporates the integrated management of receiving A2 milk from farm, production of a2™ milk powder, blending and packaging of finished product and delivery to customer. As part of this, the Company has developed its own quality processes to manage product integrity throughout the supply chain. In consequence of implementing the new processes and an ingredient supply shortage, we experienced delays in a planned shipment to China and Australia in December.”

I suppose it could be good news that ATM are sucking the herds dry, hopefully this can be addressed quickly though, there maybe an intermediate opportunity to increase production via Synlait due to Synlait’s other customers falling away at present.

Mac, what source of information you've got from that Synlait’s other customers falling away at present.

[MAC]

Hi Lease, nothing first hand, just information from the media reports and Synlait's disclosure on the matter;

“Penno said the changes were causing "considerable disruption" to Synlait in the short-term - as some Chinese infant formula customers were holding back on orders while the new measures were rolled out - and the company may not achieve its forecast target of 10,000 metric tonnes of infant formula and nutritional sales this financial year.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11193307

[Ginger_steps_]

Hi Ginger, if nothing else an email to the Managing Director would give some indication as to how the company deals with shareholders and the public. I am not suggesting that they are not doing the right thing. But wondering if they will come right out and address your concerns.

airedale - I sent an email off to a2 this morning. Will let you know if it is replied to.

Still havent had the chance to taste other fomulas.

So, thoughts on todays interim report? At a glance lookinq quite positive - or at least moving in the right direction.

[airedale]

Hi Ginger, yes the annual report looks ok. Moving in the right direction. There was a broker's comment in the Chch Press on Saturday suggesting that a capital raising might need to be considered to fund future expansion plans, but the annual report talks of "maintaining a conservative balance sheet".
Right now prospects are good.

[iceman]

An interesting article in the Herald today http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11215239

Hopefully any shake out of "unwanted" suppliers will strengthen and quicken ATM's foray into China.

[MAC]

An interesting article in the Herald today http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11215239

Hopefully any shake out of "unwanted" suppliers will strengthen and quicken ATM's foray into China.

Yes, it should ultimately be a good thing for the big brands, better differentiation and less industry risk from the quality control procedures of the smaller outfits.

A previous article suggested that the probable 10 brands had to have an operational retail base in Australia or New Zealand, so ATM should tick the boxes. The auditors have already visited the Synlait plant and a farm.

I guess ATM’s future here is somewhat linked to Synlait’s and there’s no telling what some commie bureaucrat might decide or do, but hopefully it provides an advantageous outcome for A2 Corp.

[Ginger_steps_]

Perhaps the wrong thread for this but Im more interested in a2 and Synlait then Fonterra so i will post here. Fonterra have been upping the quality control quite heavily in recent months - perhaps in anticipation of the Chinese audit (and post bot scare). I have a friend working in the Hamilton plant who's current project is uniquely coding every single bottle of milk. I wonder if this is now becoming the norm? I sincerely hope Synlait put on a good show for the auditors!

[Fisherking]

Yes, it should ultimately be a good thing for the big brands, better differentiation and less industry risk from the quality control procedures of the smaller outfits.

A previous article suggested that the probable 10 brands had to have an operational retail base in Australia or New Zealand, so ATM should tick the boxes. The auditors have already visited the Synlait plant and a farm.

I guess ATM’s future here is somewhat linked to Synlait’s and there’s no telling what some commie bureaucrat might decide or do, but hopefully it provides an advantageous outcome for A2 Corp.

Agree. Interesting to see the SP increase in Synlait over the last 3 days.

[MAC]

Well it’s good to see ATM are back on track with white gold exports to China.

http://agrihq.co.nz/article/a2-making-sure-of-china-process?p=72

Some adjusted positive guidance for Australia also;

“It had targeted a 10% share by the end of next year but progress so far indicated a mid-2015 milestone was now realistic”.

We have a new timeframe for the 10% Australian market share goal also, nice.

Onward and upward.

5582

[iceman]

Thanks for the link MAC. Great to see the ongoing very impressive growth in Australia. We need it to fund the setup & marketing costs in UK, China and then USA. Hopefully the A$ will recover its strength in due course as well.

I gleaned the below info from a research note on www.researchandmarkets.com a few days ago, which I thought would be interesting to share here !

"With the coming of the fourth baby boom, it is predicted that the number of newborns every year will exceed 17 million and 0-3 year old babies will maintain about 50 million in the future few years; the infant food market will focus on the formula milk powder and food supplements. According to estimations, in 2012, the scale of China's infant food market was about CNY 60 billion, among which, the formula milk powder was CNY 51 billion accounting for 85% and the food supplements were CNY 9 billion accounting for 15%.
By 2015, the scale of China's infant food market will reach CNY 90 billion with nearly CNY 80 billion of formula milk powder and CNY 10 billion of food supplements. The composite growth rate of infant formula milk powder market demand exceeds 15%; with the speeding-up of urbanization, improvement of per capita income level and coming of the fourth baby boom, it is predicted that China's infant milk powder industry will usher in the gold development period. "

[Cowboy]

[QUOTE=MAC;466479]Well it’s good to see ATM are back on track with white gold exports to China.

http://agrihq.co.nz/article/a2-making-sure-of-china-process?p=72

'A2 Corporation did not control the A2 brand in NZ so didn’t have account relationships with grocery chains, leaving the product with limited distribution'.

Mac, I was going to write to the company complaining that I cannot buy A2 milk in the Hawke's Bay - not from the major supermarkets anyway - PakNSave, Countdown, New World
The above comment mentions it but How Come?
Forgive me if a silly question but I can't find the answer, certainly not on the companies website!

[airedale]

A2 milk sells at New World supermarket in Rangiora, North Canterbury. It may be that individual NW supermarket owners have some control over what they stock.

[airedale]

Hi Mac, it is not easy to find A2. I followed your link to find the stockists and I got "page not found" I was directed to Fresha Valley but that told me nothing about where to buy it.
I hope that someone from A2 Corporation is following this thread.

[MAC]

Imagine the discerning folk at ATM are really quite busy with important internationally markets, either way the Hawkes Bay market isn't their jurisdiction given the product is licenced to others, it would seem to me that it's Fresha Valley you may need to call for assistance Ph 09 432 0142.

http://www.freshavalley.co.nz/contact.php

[Jasemc]

I think A2 will wait for the license to expire ( if it ever does) with Freshavalley then push big into NZ. Fresha valley probably have only a small size supply of A2 farmers. Not sure when the license expires though. You can get a2 milk in countdown Tawa.

[MAC]

I've tried to find a reference Jasemc, but as I recall I think the Fresha licence is up in 2017, but at the end of the day, it may be better if all that ex farm gate A2 milk produced in NZ went to China as Platinum.

[Jasemc]

yes new Zealand is a to small a market to spend a lot of time on but always good to have a base in your home town. I agree with your comment above Turmeric it will help snapiti a lot :)

[Thor]

There is a good article on Mother Jones which has just been published. Good overview for those wanting a starting point to read about A1, A2 and A2 Corp and their expansion (and previous attempt) into America.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/03/a1-milk-a2-milk-america

[Bjauck]

An item about Parmalat criticising A2 for damaging the dairy industry as a whole. It reads a bit as though they do not like the increasing share of the market that a2 is garnering. See http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/9840448/Parmalat-boss-hits-out-at-a2-milk

[MAC]

An item about Parmalat criticising A2 for damaging the dairy industry as a whole. It reads a bit as though they do not like the increasing share of the market that a2 is garnering. See http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/9840448/Parmalat-boss-hits-out-at-a2-milk

"This is not a milk war issue in terms of share, it's about the dairy industry. My primary concern is that we have something in the market that is denigrating normal milk,"

I thought A2 was the normal milk, A1 being a genetic abnormality, but ok.

It’s not ATM’s goal to replace A1 milk, and at some point I think ATM will increase to an optimal market share within each country whereby the product almost but not quite normalises as a staple, going beyond this point would put the price premium at risk. Could be 15 or 20% market share, who knows, but a ways off yet.

But at the end of the day, given all the dairy industry consolidation going on in Australia, there is nothing to stop Parmalat making a takeover bid for A2 Corporation.

[Ginger_steps_]

Airedale, and whoever is interested... I received a letter back from a2 about the premium infant formula. It focused on transitioning babies from breast to formula and sort of dodged my questions relating to the taste compared to other formulas. They also did not address whether babies preferred a2 to other formulas - only to say that some babies have relief from digestive comfort when moving to a2, and that it is not recommended to swap between formulas purely for taste - only if the child has allergies or intolerances (as stated by national health guidelines).

All in all I found the letter to be a tad patronising - it was a more parenting advice rather than addressing my concerns a shareholder. In saying that, Im happy they replied and did clear a couple of things up. Perhaps the "Technical Manager" missed the gist of my letter - or my letter was poorly structured.

On that note - we did try another formula and my son drank it - although I changed the delivery method. So I will try a2 again with this method and see how it goes. I havent tasted the new formula myself yet either...

[airedale]

Thanks for sharing that Ginger, at least they answered albeit in roundabout/ PR /spin doctor sort of way. The question of what milk formula is supposed to taste like is still a matter of speculation.

[drswag]

Announcements
Change of director 'Michael Perich has ceased to be Alternate Director' https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/248412

AMP Capital Investors change in ownership from 9.99% to 8.98% (65,431,676 to 58,813,692)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/248413

[Ginger_steps_]

Thanks for sharing that Ginger, at least they answered albeit in roundabout/ PR /spin doctor sort of way. The question of what milk formula is supposed to taste like is still a matter of speculation. Hoooray the little fella drank the a2!! Phew......

[Cowboy]

From the Sydney Daily Telegraph today -more like this from the news media please!

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/research-shows-specific-milk-protein-not-lactose-may-be-behind-milk-allergy/story-fni0cx12-1226860958477

[Snow Leopard]

from the announcement today (https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/248885)

“This may appear like just a name change. For The a2 Milk Company™, it reflects our journey from early research and entrepreneurial pioneers in New Zealand to a unified global identity, focussed on our mission to make the extraordinary benefits of A2 dairy milk understood and available to all,”



No longer to be called the A2 Corporation (with a BIG A) but the a2 Milk Company™
(with a little a and a ™ as well).

Really fail to see why the SP has not risen today.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (™, © & bar)

[airedale]

Maybe the new name has been enough to get Milford Asset Mngmt excited. They have just increased their holding by about 1%.

[K1W1G0LD]

Whats happened with this stock sellers backed up and shareprice retreating.

[couta1]

Whats happened with this stock sellers backed up and shareprice retreating.
Global sell down on tech/bio tech stocks my friend

[iceman]

Time to top up some more :)

[MAC]

I’m sure Susan has all the potential in the world, perhaps some good exp from Unilever and Arnnots too, but I’m not sure she has done nearly enough yet at the A2 milk company, in under a year to deserve 5,000,000 million shares at $0.0072 per share.

Perhaps if UK sales were ahead of the curve on a good solid marketing campaign rather than behind, perhaps if all that professional smooching had been put to good use on convincing the EFSA to moderate their views facilitating more open and direct marketing for A2 in Europe, but not thus far.

I don’t begrudge Geoff receiving his shares, he’s done a lot for A2 over many years and has returned a lot of shareholder wealth.

Susan, you haven’t yet worked hard enough for it or got the results, we are expecting very very big things from you now, get the sales and marketing in Europe sorted out !

When’s the AGM - November.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/192683.pdf

[zigzag]

I’m sure Susan has all the potential in the world, perhaps some good exp from Unilever and Arnnots too, but I’m not sure she has done nearly enough yet at the A2 milk company, in under a year to deserve 5,000,000 million shares at $0.0072 per share.

Perhaps if UK sales were ahead of the curve on a good solid marketing campaign rather than behind, perhaps if all that professional smooching had been put to good use on convincing the EFSA to moderate their views facilitating more open and direct marketing for A2 in Europe, but not thus far.

I don’t begrudge Geoff receiving his shares, he’s done a lot for A2 over many years and has returned a lot of shareholder wealth.

Susan, you haven’t yet worked hard enough for it or got the results, we are expecting very very big things from you now, get the sales and marketing in Europe sorted out !

When’s the AGM - November.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/192683.pdf

These are only partly paid shares. I think at some stage she will have to pay them up to 72c.

[biker]

Anybody into the placement today at 82c? Institution selling down 6 million.

[enzed staffy]

0.75...wtf???

[MAC]

It does seem that from today’s announcement that a confident plan is now in place for the Chinese regulatory changes and inventories will cover any disruption, I’ve taken some further confidence from this and recent news coverage.

I like to invest in companies with good management and bold goals, it just seems to focus a company internally and drives a positive culture.

$280M in revenues by 2016
$60M and a 1% market share in Chinese infant formula sales by 2016
A 1.8% market share in UK milk sales by 2016
A 10% market share in Australian milk sales, recently pulled forward to mid-2015.

And of course there are new initiatives presently rolling out in Australia, UHT, yoghourt, cream products, and the entry into the US is just kicking off.

I’m watching exchange rates, global dairy prices, but I’ve no reason to alter my FY14 valuation of $1.19 at this time.

I’m going to say that the A2 Milk Company is looking really very good for a top for all at this point.

Disc: Buy

[couta1]

Looks seriously oversold with some going at 75c,but then I would say that with a buy price of 92c:scared:

[psychic]

Moosie says buy, broken the lower bollinger band and tracking oversold levels. Look to sell above 80 again.

I'm a total chump when it comes to this chart stuff, but genuinely interested so am going to ask for your further thoughts.

It has broken the lower Bol Band yes, - but does that say buy - or look out? It has also broken its 200ma - a definite warning signal I understood
The slow stochastic, DMI and MACD 's don't say buy do they?

Is the smart money exiting?? Another 4.0m shares out at .78 at close.

The high P/E may be justifiable (I don't know) but in the current environment I'd be worried about jumping in there.

I would have thought that China's tightening of Supplier rules would have benefited the likes of ATM but this has not helped. Why the sudden rush to exit?

Don't hold

[couta1]

I'm a total chump when it comes to this chart stuff, but ge. inely interested so am going to ask for your further thoughts.

It has broken the lower Bol Band yes, - but does that say buy - or look out? It has also broken its 200ma - a definite warning signal I understood
The slow stochastic, DMI and MACD 's don't say buy do they?

Is the smart money exiting?? Another 4.0m shares out at .78 at close.

The high P/E may be justifiable (I don't know) but in the current environment I'd be worried about jumping in there.

I would have thought that China's tightening of Supplier rules would have benefited the likes of ATM but this has not helped. Why the sudden rush to exit?

Don't hold
The China tightening rules aren't going to produce an immediate effect coupled with the current downturn on biotech stocks so the answer is Panickers plus Lab Rats doing their thing:scared: and maybe some bigger players rebalancing or freeing up cash for others reasons. Disc- Long

[psychic]

The China tightening rules aren't going to produce an immediate effect coupled with the current downturn on biotech stocks so the answer is Panickers plus Lab Rats doing their thing:scared: and maybe some bigger players rebalancing or freeing up cash for others reasons. Disc- Long

Hmm.. The effect would be immediate alright if it was felt ATM would not comply....

[couta1]

Hmm.. The effect would be immediate alright if it was felt ATM would not comply....
I think ATM has better chance of complying than a lot of the others due to its very difference from the others in a good way

[K1W1G0LD]

Moosie says buy, broken the lower bollinger band and tracking oversold levels. Look to sell above 80 again.

Beware the rabid moose, he has a great record in buying Turkeys and not much else.

[Hoop]

Why is everyone surprised at the drop:confused:
Screaming sell signals end of March around 90c....So many red arrows made my chart messy and impossible to ignore.
Long term support at 75 (not drawn on chart) tested and successfully bounced up off it today..


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ATM28042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/ATM28042014.png.html)

[nextbigthing]

Why is everyone surprised at the drop:confused:


A) Because they believe the fundamentals are sound enough not to warrant the drop

b) Because you didn't publish this chart 2 months ago :)

[couta1]

Thank goodness us long termers don't have to study those messy charts, just believe the company will do the business given time aye:cool:

[Onion]

That's all you need couta, a bit of belief. And maybe a chicken sacrafice. And a full moon.

[Jasemc]

I see on the herald on line it says synlait won't apply for registration until after new canning belt is built in June. Hope a2has enough supply in china to last.

[iceman]

I see on the herald on line it says synlait won't apply for registration until after new canning belt is built in June. Hope a2has enough supply in china to last.

This is in the statement from A2MC. Looks like we are well positioned :

"a2MC Managing Director Geoffrey Babidge says “the requirements of the registration process are consistent with our expectations. We have been working closely with Synlait Milk in anticipation of potential changes and will continue to do so to build the Company’s position in this market. a2MC applies additional quality management processes to the supply chain from certifying each individual cow in the a2 milking herds to the finished product. The application of the A2 System© ensures that a2® Platinum™ branded infant formula is consistently of the highest quality and performance.”

Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2® Platinum™ infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied.

The regulatory changes affecting China should not impact the production of a2® Platinum™ infant formula for sale in other markets, including Australia and New Zealand."

[Longhaul]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ATM28042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/ATM28042014.png.html)

Hoop, just wondering how you get Big Charts to show a 50 day and 200 day EMA? Also, I'm guessing you have to generate a couple of images and stitch them together to get all the indicators on the same screen? Thanks.

[Hoop]

Glad you agree with my 75 cent call Hoop. You and I are not so different eh? ;)

Hmmm...I've only got 2 legs:(


Did you post that chart 2 months ago Hoop? I cant seem to find it.......

DISC: Coincidentally, sold half my ATM at 91c , but again don't recall your thoughts being posted back then......

I didn't...Nextbigthing implied I should've though


Hoop, just wondering how you get Big Charts to show a 50 day and 200 day EMA? Also, I'm guessing you have to generate a couple of images and stitch them together to get all the indicators on the same screen? Thanks.
The EMA is in the indicator drop down list on advanced chart selection.
Yes I stitched the indicator boxes together using the Paint.net open source program..

[MAC]

This is in the statement from A2MC. Looks like we are well positioned :

"a2MC Managing Director Geoffrey Babidge says “the requirements of the registration process are consistent with our expectations. We have been working closely with Synlait Milk in anticipation of potential changes and will continue to do so to build the Company’s position in this market. a2MC applies additional quality management processes to the supply chain from certifying each individual cow in the a2 milking herds to the finished product. The application of the A2 System© ensures that a2® Platinum™ branded infant formula is consistently of the highest quality and performance.”

Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2® Platinum™ infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied.

The regulatory changes affecting China should not impact the production of a2® Platinum™ infant formula for sale in other markets, including Australia and New Zealand."

It is still very early in the Platinum product cycle and infant formula is presently only a very small part of ATM’s revenue. There's only a handful of shippments gone to China thus far.

ATM estimate that infant formula sales will rise to $60M by 2016 and that overall revenues will be $280, thus even at that time after a couple of years of good solid growth infant formula will still only represent around 20% of the revenue take.

A bit of panic selling yesterday, perhaps a bit of panic buying today, don't miss out folks.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/aa2df7b7/little-impact-seen-on-synlait-a2-fonterra-fund-from-tighter-chinese-infant-formula-rules.html

[MAC]

Back to basics, Dannii and her trampoline can’t have been a low cost option for the advertising budget ? http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/fmcg/fresh/dannii-minogue-shelved-by-a2-milk-in-back-to-basics-switch/355935.article

I’ve had a look around for the alternate online advertising mentioned, perhaps it’s early just yet.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy1hi0H4nWM

[Jasemc]

Back to basics, Dannii and her trampoline can’t have been a low cost option for the advertising budget ? http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/fmcg/fresh/dannii-minogue-shelved-by-a2-milk-in-back-to-basics-switch/355935.article

I’ve had a look around for the alternate online advertising mentioned, perhaps it’s early just yet.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy1hi0H4nWM
Makes me want to buy the milk lets hope it works in the uk.:D

[winner69]

cant see any reason for the fall off in share price.
unforetunately the rise off 75cps is looking increasingly like a dead cat bounce.
Am I missing something.

Wonder how a dead cat would go on Dannii's trampoline

Maybe the cat needed some special milk and didn't get it

[robbo24]

Dannii is so mint I would buy anything from her

[Jasemc]

Possible reasons for price uncertainty into china and lack of news about other markets. Dannie can dead cat me on her tramp any time

[Jasemc]

Yes so I hope they have enough stock in china to cover existing customers and if they do probably means they will need to hold back on growing customers until supply is available from nz? Instead of a statement saying they have planned for this and have enough supply at the moment maybe they could of said how much supply they have in china so we could work out the situation.

[000831]

In fact, Chinese customers never know A2. Ask anyone in China or Chinese in NZ whether they know this company and its products. You get the answer.

[MAC]

As early as January Synlait have told us that they have surplus infant formula production capacity.

“the company may not achieve its forecast target of 10,000 metric tonnes of infant formula and nutritional sales this financial year”.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11193307 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11193307)

I would anticipate from recent announcements that the A2 milk company may well have been taking advantage of this surplus capacity, getting ahead of the curve, and merrily stockpiling all year thus far.

It seems that Synlait now expect to achieve registration next month once it’s new packaging and processing plant is complete, ATM should come up for consideration at the same time one would expect.

"The Ministry for Primary Industry expects Synlait will receive approval once the new dry blending and consumer packaging factory is built which is scheduled for completion next month"

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1405/S00027/synlait-misses-out-in-first-round-of-chinese-regulation.htm

But at the end of the day, infant formula presently only contributes really very little to ATM’s bottom line indeed, it’s in the low single digit percentages at these very early stages.

A draw down of ATM inventories over a quarter or even two I suspect may have absolutely no impact at all.

Storms in tea cups are one of my favourite buying opportunities.

[Jasemc]

do they have enough a2 milk production to stockpile? But I agree it is a storm in the tea cup and look at buying opportunities as they come like 75c this week. Even though only a small part of a2 the price I think has a big part factored in when it comes to China. North America will be the next announcement I presume?

[MAC]

It’s all good news after a period of watching what oddly and ironically could only ever have been a potential matter of entirely insignificant importance.

The A2 milk company have good inventories, their producer Synlait anticipate a resolution next month, the market now has a schedule which is always appreciated, and we should be confident that Synlait are using all those good Chinese contacts they have in totally smoozing bureaucrats in China in overdrive on ATM’s behalf, because ..... without customers to produce for Synlait are no better off at all. We may also get a further clarifying announcement from ATM tomorrow.

Could be a nice wee bounce and turn around from here given all this was just so ridiculously overdone.

“Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2 Platinum™ infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied.”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/192961.pdf

[Longhaul]

Nearly put a bid in at 76 again today, buyers were looking very weak. May be a big player looking to gain access at low prices and build a stake MAC.

Wouldn't you be buying into a pretty strong downtrend at the moment? What makes you think it'll bounce soon, hasn't yet hit oversold on RSI?

[iceman]

so what the company want tell you.
As reported we have sufficient inventory for china however because we knew we would not make the registration date we have had to hold back on growth momentum to ensure our current stock levels are sufficient.
Everything going to plan we will get certified.
Not what you want to hear from a company with growth multiple's that are up in the stars.

I don't think this delay (hopefully) in registration will have much effect on ATM (and Synlait). Based on both companies' recent statements they have been preparing for this to happen temporarily, until they get their new factory finished. Then they will have a brand new dry blending and consumer packaging factory, purposely built to export to China and meet Chinese requirements.
Hopefully the market will agree :confused:

Maybe a good time to accumulate a little more !

[couta1]

Hey Snapiti you were quite Bullish on this stock a while back,changed your thinking? I'm long with a 92c buy but not worried as long term this current issue will be a non event IMO

[MAC]

We’ve received good solid long term 2016 sales goals from ATM for their markets in Australia, the UK and China, and we cannot be far now from receiving one for the US entry. This is one of the reasons I’m quite bullish on ATM, good and bold management drives the right company culture and growth.

It’s a big continent and market North America and IMO the prospect of faffing about with one JV at a time may just not offer the momentum such a market deserves.

I would very much like to see management step it up a notch about here and go for a hefty capital raising rights issue to fund a good level of expansion into the US. Even if it just allows for the opening of four or five Smeaton Grange size facilities in say two year’s time.

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Smeaton-Grange-General-Presentation-April-2013-Final.pdf

This was the approach that was so successful in Australia and IMO is worthy of replication in the US.

I’d like to see our directors earn those big compensation packages we provide them with a bold move too.

[MAC]

I don't think this delay (hopefully) in registration will have much effect on ATM (and Synlait). Based on both companies' recent statements they have been preparing for this to happen temporarily, until they get their new factory finished. Then they will have a brand new dry blending and consumer packaging factory, purposely built to export to China and meet Chinese requirements.
Hopefully the market will agree :confused:

Maybe a good time to accumulate a little more !

No reason why the market should not agree there Iceman, it all seems to be in hand now, and there is no real risk as there is no real market exposure for ATM at present anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice follow up announcement confirming the matter from ATM sometime today.

[MAC]

It's totally a top up opportunity today either way, enjoy folks.

[Remote]

A2's distributer in China, China State Farms is owned by the Chinese govt and Chinese company Bright Dairy is a major shareholder in Synlait. I'm betting they get certified once the new plant is finished in June.

[couta1]

A2's distributer in China, China State Farms is owned by the Chinese govt and Chinese company Bright Dairy is a major shareholder in Synlait. I'm betting they get certified once the new plant is finished in June.
Agree as in many areas of life its Who you know not what you know

[Jasemc]

if you are right the market want sell down, if you are wrong ATM will have a solid red arrow today.
wishful thinking mac me thnks big red arrow today

I think the red arrow was when it dropped out of the 90c range.

[Master98]

ATM products manufactured under synlait factory, and synlait not yet registered at least until in june, the sp will face heavy downtrend pressure unless registration confirmed.

[K1W1G0LD]

You're holding the wrong share guys, a lot of old nannies on this thread ,with a few exceptions of course. Meanwhile Synlaits share price is going up!

[MAC]

the market hate's uncertainty and IMHO I cant see a positive upturn in shareprice until certification comes.

I've been looking all over for that uncertainty but just can't find it, looked everywhere, even where I already looked everywhere.

Wasn't under that enormous pile of inventories that ATM have set aside to ensure continued sales, it wasn't trying to hide under that wee tiny contribution in early stage revenues that ATM get from china either.

Well, perhaps the only uncertainty is that there may not be any uncertainty.

[Tsuba]

I think Snapiti just loves being a forum sad sack. The big red arrow he was confident about happening today didn't happen.

[iceman]

yep got that wrong but it was not green either.
So can the ATM and synlait bulls tell me why they think the companies announcement to the markets did not say that certification had been applied for and was not successful because of a few technical issue's as indicated by the synlait ceo on tv last night rather than the smoke in mirrors approach in the announcement to the markets that implies the companies were confident of achieving certification when the new plant opened in June with no mention of failure due to technical issue's.
To me this is of a material interest as most of synlait competetion have now been certified.

I think KW in the above post has put it very clearly why those of us long in ATM are not concerned with this relatively short delay for more formula production for the Chinese market. We have stock to supply this very small (but important) part of our business until Synlait starts producing for China again. None of ATM's other and more important business is affected

[MAC]

I’ve been reading on the A2 facebook page about folk in Australia buying up A2 cream and making A2 butter from it at home.

It’s nice to know there are some big fans out there, and perhaps it’s just a shame the name is now the ‘A2 milk company’ and not the ‘A2 dairy company’.

Makes one wonder about A2 Cheese too, …. or is the A2 protein in the whey and not the curd’s, perhaps a technologist out there somewhere can clarify that one ?

[iceman]

MAC I bought camembert cheese a couple of weeks ago, made from A2 herd of Guernsey cows. It was made on a small farm in Upper Moutere here in Nelson region. Best cheese we have had outside of France but also very expensive. Have a look at mouterehillsdairy.co.nz
It's for sale so you may want to buy it 😃
p.s have been looking myself 😳

[MAC]

I still can’t find any of that uncertainty, had a good look for some in the supermarket over the weekend, not even a skerrick;

All I could find was market share meters quietly ticking over in the background, a notch higher every day.

:)

5776

[MAC]

Isnt that exactly what they did say? That the certification process has been started, and they expect it to be complete by the end of June with the finalisation of the build of the processing plant which will resolve the outstanding issues. All that has happened is that they are still undergoing the certification process, not that they have permanently failed it - there is a difference. Obviously an unbuilt processing plant cannot be certified, and there is no point modifying the old plant to resolve issues when a new one is coming online. There will always be points of failure in any certification regime, and part of the process is to remediate those issues - this is perfectly normal, and I guarantee that none of other plants got through the process without having to change a few things here and there. If nothing but for the fact that the Chinese would like to see that their regulation has made a difference, to save "face". I really cant see this as being an issue, other than the delay which was announced. Now if their new plant fails certifcation then you can be justifiably worried, but until then its business as usual.

Well summarised KW.

[nextbigthing]

I really cant see this as being an issue, other than the delay which was announced.

The market agrees too KW. There has been zero change to the shareprice as of recent. I was hoping for a panick plummet purchase opportunity. No such luck.

[couta1]

The market agrees too KW. There has been zero change to the shareprice as of recent. I was hoping for a panick plummet purchase opportunity. No such luck.
I think you have a great opportunity buying at current levels NBT,a lot of us paid more for. ours.

[Master98]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11250373 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11250373)

still looking for that uncertainty mac,down 2 days in a row, closed on the lows today and yesterday and now more uncertainty reported.
Mac if you still have your rose tinted glasses on just close your eye's and sniff the air as me thinks you can smell the uncertainty now.
Market hate's uncertainty.


LOL, snapiti dont push MAC too far.yes market dont like uncertainty and nz investors dont have patience also.

[Master98]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11250373 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11250373)

still looking for that uncertainty mac,down 2 days in a row, closed on the lows today and yesterday and now more uncertainty reported.
Mac if you still have your rose tinted glasses on just close your eye's and sniff the air as me thinks you can smell the uncertainty now.
Market hate's uncertainty.


LOL, snapiti dont push MAC too far.yes market dont like uncertainty and nz investors dont have patience too.

Sorry post twice

[Snoopy]

I think you have a great opportunity buying at current levels NBT,a lot of us paid more for. ours.

A company is usually valued on the future value of discounted cash flows. ATM has done well breaking into extremely tough duopoly that is Coles Woolworths in Australia. But they are strongly cashflow negative, and do not have enough capital to develop their market push into the UK, let alone the US or China. Thus a capital raising in the medium term is a certainty.

In times more favourable for growth shares, and with the ATM share price around current levels, professional investors refused to pay more than 50c for new ATM shares. I am very sure that a professional investor today, when faced with a large capital investment proposal at ATM, would not pay any more than 50c. Just because a few people since the last capital raising have been prepared to pay a lot more than that for ATM shares does not mean the company is worth for than 50c. 50c represents an historic PE of over 40. That is more than has been paid for any food company in the history of the NZ sharemarket, except perhaps Forty Two Below.

If Australian competitors are worried, all they have to do is wait until the company bleeds more capital before striking. A loss of 1% market share in 2014 and 2015 is not a recipe to panic for big dairy players in Australia.

Excluding some SAAS companies, ATM is currently the most expensive share on the NZ market. Those who believe it is undervalued must assume it is a dead certainty for world domination, as I can't see any other way to justify a price near 80c. I don't wish to dish the ATM intellectual property and the nous of managment that has brought them their success to date. But as an investment prospect going forwards from now the best scenario outcome I can see at current prices is a huge capital loss for currrent shareholders in the medium term. If you believe in this company, why not just wait for the upcoming capital raising?

SNOOPY

[bull....]

looks like bad news for atm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11250703

[drswag]

"Synlait said last week that the company and its customers were well prepared because they had sufficient stocks of product manufactured before May 1 - as well as stock held in China - to cover the period until it becomes registered after the completion of a new canning line at its Dunsandel plant next month. It appears that Synlait, which did not return calls yesterday, may now be relying solely on product already in the Chinese market."

:confused: surely being Chinese owned should help them out a bit.. ('lest I'm off the markt with this)

[iceman]

One would hope both ATM and Synlait make announcements today to clarify exactly what their situation is with regard to the MPI announcement yesterday.

[bull....]

Knox told exporters yesterday that the Chinese authorities had back-tracked on a previous advisory that all infant formula produced before May 1 could enter China, regardless of the manufacturer's registration status.
He said China had issued a notice on Sunday stating that all infant formula imported into the country must be produced by registered manufacturers.

Synliat was relying on this, therefore no atm milk powder can be exported to china - If you discount milk powder out of atm fundamentals for the foreseeable future it is way overvalued now, would expect a big selloff on this news

[Jasemc]

Yes we would hope an announcement from A2 today. Since this news was out yesterday afternoon before market close maybe if there is a panic sell off it won't be to bad.

[Remote]

from the ATM statement a few days ago it appears they have the stock in China now - "Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2 Platinum(TM) infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied" - so as it stands they feel they have enough stock in China until the new plant is accredited. Flip side of the new rules of course is that the companies that do get approval now and in the future will face less competition from other brands in establishing themselves in the Chinese market

[Master98]

Dont exspect a quick responce from the chinese.

seems you know much about chinese;)

[nextbigthing]

more curve balls coming for sure.

Why would they make it hard for a company which they have a financial interest in Snap?

[Master98]

Why would they make it hard for a company which they have a financial interest in Snap?

chinese authority not equal to a private chinese company i think.They have to fairly treat all company.

[Remote]

chinese authority not equal to a private chinese company i think.They have to fairly treat all company.

A2's distributer in China, China State Farms is owned by the Chinese govt

[bull....]

the stock in china now would be unable to be sold as it is not registered product or from registered manufacturer so atm will have to write it all off possibly if this dragged on for too long - they must be angry with synliat for not having there sh.t organised in timefor registration you think

[Master98]

A2's distributer in China, China State Farms is owned by the Chinese govt

I am not sure if it is owned by chinese govt, but they have to fairly treat all company same world wide( local and overseas).

[bull....]

AMP sellind diwn hard. Looking for a gap down to 74 or below...

74 first support otherwise in the mid 60s then big support 50c

[Remote]

the stock in china now would be unable to be sold as it is not registered product or from registered manufacturer so atm will have to write it all off possibly if this dragged on for too long - they must be angry with synliat for not having there sh.t organised in timefor registration you think

The way I read this article http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11250373 is that product already cleared customs and in china is ok to be sold - as it stands now - of course if they change the rules again you might then be correct but the news from yesterday doesn't say that

[Remote]

No offence but they are just a distributer of a product that has hardly any market share.
Do you really think the chinese government give ATM much consideration when trying to protect domestic products.
I am quite sure china state farms have much bigger companies to look after.

True but they have gone to the trouble of partnering with A2 and given the only way A2 milk can be made available for sale in China legally (given the patents) is through A2 then I would suggest it will get through

[iceman]

AMP sellind diwn hard. Looking for a gap down to 74 or below...

They sold this 1% odd down between 20 March and 5 May so this is not at all related to yesterdays announcement from MPI. I would not call this selling down hard at all. You are scaremongering Moosie

[couta1]

They sold this 1% odd down between 20 March and 5 May so this is not at all related to yesterdays announcement from MPI. I would not call this selling down hard at all. You are scaremongering Moosie
Yep and they still hold over 51 million shares none too shabby aye.

[Master98]

Yep and they still hold over 51 million shares none too shabby aye.
AMP had a huge loss in investment in RAK, so follow AMP can sometime make mistake.

[Remote]

the news from a week ago didn't say they were going to change the rule's this week either.
Dont forget the end goal for the chinese is too protect domestic supply.
Looks like the anilyst who was on CNBC last week is spot on.

Yes it is a fluid situation it would appear right now but the overriding thing to remember is that Chinese demand is skyrocketing - estimates are that Chinese annual baby formula consumption could reach $25 billion in 2016 up from $12 billion in 2012. The Chinese need international product for many years yet and at a growing rate so they can't get too restrictive.

[psychic]

They sold this 1% odd down between 20 March and 5 May so this is not at all related to yesterdays announcement from MPI. I would not call this selling down hard at all. You are scaremongering Moosie

AMP looks to have been selling down across the board recently
MET GPG ACY TWR PPL MVN

[MAC]

Is there a problem ?

5792

[couta1]

Yes it is a fluid situation it would appear right now but the overriding thing to remember is that Chinese demand is skyrocketing - estimates are that Chinese annual baby formula consumption could reach $25 billion in 2016 up from $12 billion in 2012. The Chinese need international product for many years yet and at a growing rate so they can't get too restrictive.
And of course we must remember were talking niche market here for all those fussy Chinese that don't want A1 powder so not as much competition as one would think for their target market ie the fussy and health conscious.

[bull....]

atm broke its uptrend yesterday

[MAC]

No but I've found a whole bunch of professional stock knockers.

[couta1]

atm broke its uptrend yesterday
What uptrend? The last uptrend was in April

[winner69]

What uptrend? The last uptrend was in April

the long term uptrend couta

roughly looks like this but much the same as a long period sma

[couta1]

lol, we well let the market do the talking then.
The whole markets down Snapiti so its talking through a loudspeaker not just having a wee word in A2 s ear.

[winner69]

seeing we in silly mode today

[couta1]

I am not just talking about today.
We have weeks of uncertainty ahead.
But since you mentioned it, unlike ATM the whole market is most certainly not trading below the 200 DMA. VERY BEARISH
Yep I'm used to those Bears same story over at Xro just waiting for winter for those bugger's to go into hibernation mode:scared:

[couta1]

seeing we in silly mode today
Classic winner but you had better add Iceman

[Hoop]

Yep I'm used to those Bears same story over at Xro just waiting for winter for those bugger's to go into hibernation mode:scared:

We all* know what happens when we start fighting with bears...eh? (*well some of us pre 2009 old-timers know for sure)
Whats worse than picking fights with bears though is picking fights with Mr Market using forward projected historic fundamentals as a weapon.

[iceman]

seeing we in silly mode today

LOL winner69. If one believes in being "greedy when others are fearful", your image would indicate a brilliant top up opportunity :ohmy:

[winner69]

LOL winner69. If one believes in being "greedy when others are fearful", your image would indicate a brilliant top up opportunity :ohmy:

Warren's mate Charlie just popped in to have a look at this thread. Charlie saw that diagram and said its a great representation of one of his favourite phrases “When you are successful you will often find that is because you are competing against idiots, but luckily there is a large supply of them"

Nuff said for now

[ghostrider68]

I wonder if it will affect ATM or whether they can prove their relationship/control with Synlait.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10024157/Not-every-formula-brand-will-enter-China-Guy

[MAC]

I wonder if it will affect ATM or whether they can prove their relationship/control with Synlait.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10024157/Not-every-formula-brand-will-enter-China-Guy

Welcome to you Ghostrider68,

It’s entirely a storm in a glass of milk in summary.

It's unfortunate that the timing of Synlait's new packaging plant is not a month earlier, but ultimately there is virtually no immediate risk of any effect on ATM as infant formula is not only a very very small percentage of ATM's revenue, http://a2milk.com.au/ but they have told us that they have enough inventories in China with their distributor to ensure continuity of consumer demand during the regulatory process.

ATM and their processor Synlait have the close relationship that the regulators seek, and we may well imagine that they may even have had ATM in mind when they allowed for that ‘close association rule’. The joint quality assurance measures and association with ATM go all the way from individual cow protein testing through to the process output.

High ranking Chinese officials have visited Synlait farms and they also have good contacts and associations with the regulators http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/6777346/Chinese-visit-boosts-Synlait

There are up to 90 brands of infant milk formula exported to China, I don't ultimately anticipate that it is the top tier premium quality brands like platinum with all the quality controls that ATM have that the regulators intend to filter out, it's the smaller almost garage operations with multiple branding that are most likely the concern to both the Chinese and to the reputation of the industry here for that matter.

many regards, Mac

[K1W1G0LD]

Question is, how much does ATM and SML have to cough up to grease some hands here? I don't know about you MAC, but I'd be very cautious about trusting Chinese officials; it can definitely go either way and it ain't a sure thing until the fat lady is singing (and sometimes after that it still isn't over!)

Brilliant, really brilliant .................................the sage voice of wisdom and accrued knowledge , from watching too much tv, reading mad magazine perhaps.........but not from studying the sharemarket!!

[Master98]

looks like AMP still selling off market.
not enough depth on market for them and me thinks they are finding it harder to sell off market as well at current levels.

actually 75c already break through , 65c will be next support level?

[Rego55]

I really like the look of ATM though have learnt in my brief period of investing not to get into a stock like this when there is uncertainty in the market. Would love to just put my long term hat on and buy in but I get the feeling that this is going to continue dropping for a few days yet so will try to get in a bit lower. It seems that if 74c is broken then it's a rapid slide to 65c.

Discl: got burnt buying PEB at an average of $1.40 (keeping the faith in this stock however...)

[Longhaul]

I really like the look of ATM though have learnt in my brief period of investing not to get into a stock like this when there is uncertainty in the market. Would love to just put my long term hat on and buy in but I get the feeling that this is going to continue dropping for a few days yet so will try to get in a bit lower. It seems that if 74c is broken then it's a rapid slide to 65c.

Only learning to read TA (any experts please feel free to correct me!) but it seems like this has picked up some serious downward momentum. MACD, OBV and DMI all looking terrible although RSI close to oversold. Least of all it has broken 200 day EMA as Snapiti mentioned.

I have learned to steer clear of picking bottoms, awfully dirty past-time.

Disc - never held ATM.

[Snow Leopard]

Only learning to read TA (any experts please feel free to correct me!) but it seems like this has picked up some serious downward momentum. MACD, OBV and DMI all looking terrible although RSI close to oversold. Least of all it has broken 200 day EMA as Snapiti mentioned.

I have learned to steer clear of picking bottoms, awfully dirty past-time.

Disc - never held ATM.

Self-progressed expert in all things and debunker of rubbish here.

I think you have hit the nail squarely on the head:
Definitely doing the flight of an early Wright Brothers attempt.
Given that MACD, OBV & DMI generally tell you which way the trend is going then no surprises there !
Remember with RSI it is the turn up out of the oversold level which is supposed to be a signal.
200EMA - that is just a KW thing !

Here in my part of the world there are little hand held water spray things in toilets to help with that sort of thing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[ziggy415]

has ATM been cleared to sell milk powder in China...seem to recall they were one that hasn,t reached registration yet

[iceman]

has ATM been cleared to sell milk powder in China...seem to recall they were one that hasn,t reached registration yet

Synlait produces the A2 Platinum for ATM and no they have not been registered in the current round for Chinese imports/exports. You will see umpteen posts about this 2-4 pages back on this thread

[MAC]

From an ongoing business perspective the pending strategy for entry into the US is more significant about here and a much bigger long term market too.

For nearly a year we waited for the working group to assess options, I went to Auckland for the AGM in November and heard that the working group were still assessing, but, it now seems that they do have a plan, we just await some form of deal to be closed and the announcement to be made.

From the February HY report: “The Company has determined to progress North America as its next growth initiative and has established a working group plan for this opportunity” – C J Cook, Chairman

My humble view is that a replication of the ATM owned processing plant in Australia would be a good model to clone on a grander larger scale for the US and Canada, but we could equally see a series of JV’s, or perhaps, with the North American market being so large with widely distributed incumbent dairy companies we could even see M&A options come into play also.

http://www.dairyreporter.com/Manufacturers/A2C-preparing-to-launch-a2-milk-brand-in-US

[MAC]

MAC with the company wanting to progress into north america and currently making very little profit as well as only 13m in the bank how long do you think it will be before we see the next capital raising.

A capital raising, yes do I hope so, a nice hefty discounted rights issue to fund a new US construction oriented growth option would be my preference, whilst existing revenues streams continue to be used to expand the other growth markets. A rights issue would be a fantastic top up opportunity for shareholders about here.

Existing revenue streams are sustainably matched to and are funding the present 2016 growth targets and expansion toward them. It’s been refreshing IMHO to see a company like ATM pumping every skerrick of cash into growth rather than hoarding it or worse paying it out as dividends.

I suspect though that we may just see JV's announced for the US with joint capital funding, possibly like the UK Muller Wiseman JV, but, I wouldn't rule out a zero capital M&A deal if the board is ready and open to such a consideration at this early stage in ATM’s business plan.

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/A2-Strategic-Review-2012.pdf

[iceman]

Snapiti, below is a post from MAC posted last week. I think you will find he is fully aware that a capital raising may be needed for a big push into the US, while Australian sales and profits are funding push into UK & China.
In fact MAC is on record saying he would like to see this capital raising sooner rather than later, providing the company has a clear marketing strategy and goals. I agree with him and would also support that. After all this is a small fledgling company with aspirational goals and clear strategy to achieve them. Some of us like that.


We’ve received good solid long term 2016 sales goals from ATM for their markets in Australia, the UK and China, and we cannot be far now from receiving one for the US entry. This is one of the reasons I’m quite bullish on ATM, good and bold management drives the right company culture and growth.

It’s a big continent and market North America and IMO the prospect of faffing about with one JV at a time may just not offer the momentum such a market deserves.

I would very much like to see management step it up a notch about here and go for a hefty capital raising rights issue to fund a good level of expansion into the US. Even if it just allows for the opening of four or five Smeaton Grange size facilities in say two year’s time.

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Smeaton-Grange-General-Presentation-April-2013-Final.pdf

This was the approach that was so successful in Australia and IMO is worthy of replication in the US.

I’d like to see our directors earn those big compensation packages we provide them with a bold move too.

[iceman]

A capital raising, yes do I hope so, a nice hefty discounted rights issue to fund a new US construction oriented growth option would be my preference, whilst existing revenues streams continue to be used to expand the other growth markets. A rights issue would be a fantastic top up opportunity for shareholders about here.

Existing revenue streams are sustainably matched to and are funding the present 2016 growth targets and expansion toward them. It’s been refreshing IMHO to see a company like ATM pumping every skerrick of cash into growth rather than hoarding it or worse paying it out as dividends.

I suspect though that we may just see JV's announced for the US with joint capital funding, possibly like the UK Muller Wiseman JV, but, I wouldn't rule out a zero capital M&A deal if the board is ready and open to such a consideration at this early stage in ATM’s business plan.

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/A2-Strategic-Review-2012.pdf

Sorry hadn't seen your response when I posted my above post. I hope I haven't put words in your mouth MAC !

[MAC]

No wonder the A1 competition in Australia are squawking, ATM success is hitting their bottom line and they cannot develop their own A2 products as the A2 Milk Company own the IP and the patents.

ATM don’t just have the first mover advantage when they enter a new market like the US, effectively the A2 Milk Company is the market.

So, when all those big US dairy companies like DFA or Kraft, even some of the multinationals too like Nestle look at Australia what they must see is ATM taking all but a 10% market share in an extraordinarily short period of time, and within a fresh milk market that has been shrinking for 10 years, and with a 50% price premium on across the counter sales.

The US and Australia are relatively similar markets, much more so than when compared to Europe. Both have large territorial dairy companies with predominantly A1 herds and thus similar uniform levels of BCM7 intolerance. Both fresh milk markets are shrinking and are under similar pressures.

When the big US companies see the A2 Milk Company heading their way, right about now, why would they all not want a piece of that A2 action. But, the only way they can get access to it, is to become the lucky joint venture partner, or, to take an ownership stake.

It’s probable that there is a heightened awareness in the US at present, not only just from all the media releases, but while Geoff and the team are presently talking to incumbents in regard to establishing herd conversions, milk processing capabilities, assigning distributors and working on forward retail agreements.

Who knows what those big US dairy companies may do, but I bet they like A2 ?

[nextbigthing]

Doesn't relate to ATM directly but an interesting read;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10037881/Kiwis-warned-off-mega-dairy-farming-model

[psychic]

ATM stronger today? Has the trend turned?
I'm in

[airedale]

Hoping that it is not a dead cat bounce:confused:. But topped up anyway.

[psychic]

so its gone from the micro and added to the small?

[bull....]

be interesting see what happens now that it closed on the uptrend line, a fall would confirm trend down a move higher confirms a false break down

[forest]

Included in MSCI small cap index so that's why we had a rise on big volume. Will see soon if it holds...



MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX


Addition ................................... - Deletions
AIRWORK HOLDINGS.................. - ASB CAPITAL PREF
NEW ZEALAND REFINING CO......... - ASB CAPITAL PREF 2
TENON.......................................- THE A2 MILK COMPAN

[K1W1G0LD]

Included in MSCI small cap index so that's why we had a rise on big volume. Will see soon if it holds...

Aah thats RM, (the living Legend) with more unsound advice.

[Joshuatree]

Hey the other reason moose is i bought a 2 litre bottle today to test:)

[airedale]

Hey the other reason moose is i bought a 2 litre bottle today to test:)

I have drunk it and liked it. May be that is why support is holding at $.80;)

[Jasemc]

Yeah I have started buying it tastes nice. But that might be after years of light blue milk because of the boss in the house wanting to be slim.

[iceman]

The competition have been playing dirty! Bet the last thing they would want is this story to be on the front page of the weekend paper online, living on the Internet for ever and ever :-)
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rival-seeks-to-water-down-a2-milk-claims-20140523-38uef.html

in true reverse psychology style, people will now believe that there must be something to A2 if Parmalat had to hire a PR firm and resort to dirty tactics :-)

Thanks for sharing this KW. Great advertising for A2M :t_up:

[Snoopy]

<snip>
I guess the reality is that at least half the value in the shares is coming from the intellectual property assets rather than the operating business. A much more tricky area to value and requires a bit more knowledge and time. However, unless the IP is sold to a larger entity via takeover or royalty, it is going to require ongoing capital to extract value from it, which would tend to mean ongoing dilution.

Can't rule out a sudden takeover announcement - still small enough that someone might offer a premium to get the IP - but, personally, I don't generally invest on speculative binary outcomes, as I find it too hit and miss.


Snapiti mentioned on another thread the possibility of an A2 takeover. From A2s own front page:

"originally all dairy cows produced milk containing only the A2 type of beta-casein protein"

Snapiti says
"Only way to get your hands on this monopoly is to buy out the company."

I say:

How can a natural product be a monopoly that a company can protect? Granted the A2 brand name has real value, and is a great trademark to have. Perhaps there is some patented technology around the DNA testing that A2 use to identify the right cows? I am not familiar enough with A2 to definitively answer that.

But all a savy US corporation needs to do is to start marketing "natural all American buffalo milk", A2 under another name, and the A2 monopoly ends, as do their US prospects. To me the underlying IP is entirely in the marketing box with little food science that can't be replicated. To me 80c is far too much to pay for just a brand (albeit a very good one) that will require truckloads of new cash to reach its potential. Not saying A2 can't do it. Just saying that there are better opportunities elsewhere for investors than buying A2 shares near current levels (80c).

SNOOPY

[MAC]

this could will be a loop hole snoopy but I am very confident buffalo do not produce much commercial milk per head let alone in total.

There is nothing to stop someone selling buffalo milk of Jersey cow milk for that matter, but they cannot brand any product as being A2, they cannot test the cows or milk as being A2, and thus cannot demonstrate that any product is BCM-7 protein free without legal issue. ATM have enforced their patents successfully in the past.

5856
5857
5858

[Snoopy]

There is nothing to stop someone selling buffalo milk of Jersey cow milk for that matter, but they cannot brand any product as being A2, they cannot test the cows or milk as being A2, and thus cannot demonstrate that any product is BCM-7 protein free without legal issue. ATM have enforced their patents successfully in the past.


Thanks for the A2 slides Mac. I now see all the patents that A2 have in Genotyping A2 animals, amongst the other IP that I wasn't fully aware of before.

My main point though still stands. I was not to seriously suggest that getting milk from buffalo is a serious threat to A2 in the United States. My point was that A1 was a genetic mutation in the first place, some five to ten thousand years ago when man was in the very early stages of farming. Animals exist that are still naturally A2. I picked on the buffalo simply because AFAIK they have never been seriously farmed by man and so are an obvious breed of 'cattle' that are likely still A2. I am not familiar enough with other bovine breeds to tell you what other A2 cattle is out there. Scottish Highland Cattle might be a more realistic example of a breed that has been more recently domesticated?

I accept all the points you have made reinforcing the strong brand protection of A2. And the likelihood that tests to determine whether particular cows are A2 also come under A2 IP and so provide an extra layer of intellectual property protection against would be A2 freeloaders.

My argument rests on the premise that A2 is the more natural beta-casein state. Thus is you have a breed of cattle that have never had the A1 mutation, there is no need to test for A1, and therefore no need to infringe any A2 patents for genotype. If a species remains such that the resulting milk is in its natural beta-casein state (dubbed A2 by A2 Milk Limited, but there is no need to call it that), then that could be a sufficient marketing message in itself.

"Quality milk unaltered by 5,000 years of the human hand"

I feel a marketing campaign coming on, that completely bypasses all of A2's IP.

SNOOPY

[airedale]

I would expect the a2 board and their PR people to emphasise that the A1 spin is by a PR company previously hired to sell tobacco and alcohol. No credibility.

[MAC]

There are two or three decades now of scientific debate now over the patenting of genetics. One outcome is generally accepted such that a gene cannot generally be patented only discovered, however, how that gene or characteristic is used in a process and/or as a brand is patentable.

Someone else may discover BCM-7 free animals, most Jersey cows are, but they would incur patent infringement in branding any product from those cows as A2, and they would incur infringement in several other areas for which ATM hold patents including the animal categorisation test process.

As much as you may wish this not to be the case Snoopy your efforts in knocking ATM are unfounded, and well just wrong, and this has been proven through legal challenge, precedence, and through nearly a decade of market application without issue in Australia, New Zealand and now in Europe and China.

Wishing for something that may knock the heads off tall poppies to your satisfaction does not make the facts disputable, but thank you for the opportunity to debate.

[winner69]

I've always enjoyed reading Keith Woodford articles and blogs, esp on rural issues

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/

He has been a long time supporter of and expert on A2

[SwampRat]

Goats milk is (A2). Many people drink it because they have problems digesting (A1) cows milk and may switch to A2 as it's about half the price of goats milk (a quick check of an online NZ supermarket - goats milk $4.50 per litre, A2 $4.90 for 2 litres).

So it's not just cows milk drinkers that are a target for A2.

[iceman]

Crumbs this is getting good, should be all over prime time news next week the way it’s going. Campbell should like this one better than all that GSCB conspiracy rubbish he’s been running.

And to think, all Parmalat really have to do, is offer us all $5 per share, and there problem will just go away ?

Speak for yourself mate. I will not be gifting mine away like that :p

[GTM 3442]

Speak for yourself mate. I will not be gifting mine away like that :p

iceman, that's the New Zealand Way.

Parmalat will wait until the first set of bad news after which the share price will hit $0.65, then offer about $0.95/share.

There will then be an independent report explaining that this is a 40% premium to the current share price.

Many who have bought in at under $0.80 will accept.

A2 can then be added to the long list of New Zealand companies bought out for far less than their true value.

Sigh. . .

[stoploss]

This could help demand for infant formula ..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11264148

[iceman]

Interesting reading albeit most of it has been canvassed on here before http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11264151

[airedale]

I see that Milford Asset Mngmt have just increased their holding. They partially sold down earlier this year to take profits but now they are back in again. They must see long term prospects from here.

[MAC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMwyQ60Ay84

[belted galloway]

http://www.pura.com.au/a2protein/?state=nt

With A2's successful implementation into Australia, the big boys are starting to take action.

A2 should be thanking their competitors for the free advertising, a great way to draw customer attention to the products.

Bring on the legal action.

[MAC]

Lion are effectively adding both to the endorsement and to the promotion of the benefits of A2.

I suspect this might help Lion slow the drift to ATM a little, perhaps they may add a few converts from their A1 competitors whom overall form 90% of the market.

Though, the exposure they are adding within the market can only be good for the only company that can produce the 100% real thing. Even if all the milk companies promoted their products as “containing A2”, ATM would always have the marketing advantage.

The normalisation of A2 by A1 milk companies may even potentially open the door for ATM to go from being a novelty brand product with an associated cap on market share to, over time, becoming a main stay shelf product with greater market share potential.

Although, at the end of the day, if you want to buy A1 free milk then 50% free milk is not going to do it.

If you want to buy decaffeinated coffee in the supermarket whilst doing your weekly shop, you wouldn’t necessarily want to buy “coffee that contains decaffeination”, if you want to buy what you really want.

[iceman]

MAC I am not convinced this concerted effort by Lion and parmalat will slow A2M´s inroads into the market.

I think its great that this debate is now in mainstream and frontpage media. It increases the exposure of A2 milk and the debate about its benefits. Those that are already buying A2 milk for health reasons, whether perceived or real, will not be changing back to buy milk that only “contains” A2 protein.

That market segment that is already or is likely to be willing to buy A2 will be doing so for health benefits and will be better educated about the differences between A1 & A2 than the average person. Even if the benefit is still being debated, most people that have or suspect they have problems with A1 milk, will go with the benefit of the doubt and buy A2. Especially if it relates to their children.

It could also be argued that those that can afford to pay the extra $$$ for A2, will be more likely to do so after taking interest in this debate and studying it for themselves. Those swayed by these ads, probably never were real potential A2 customers anyway !

The good thing is that A2M is now on the big radar screens. Interesting times !

Discl.. Accumulating

[zcyong]

But the A2 sales in China is still not good so far.

[MAC]

Well Milford would certainly agree Iceman having just increased their holding to 12.2%, I've been topping up too over the last couple of weeks.

I do wonder also if all this increased competitive focus has the Australian Dairy Companies both reassessing their market positions and running the numbers on takeover possibilities also.

My DCF provides me with a valuation for ATM of $1.10 (+43%). There may not be a better time for the Australians, or, for the big US Dairy Companies too for that matter given the prospective market entry exposure.

Has anyone an up to date top 20 shareholder list at their fingertips.

[ziggy415]

if the big boys are squeeling then you can be assured A2 is hurting their sales and most consumers will see their media campaign as bully tactics but there is some large sell orders on nzx which would suggest some share holders are a little worried

[NT001]

That's all great publicity, and it's finally forcing A2M to change its sales pitch which will really annoy the big boys in Australia and also Fonterra in NZ. In the recent past, A2M has tried to avoid confrontation with the mainstream industry by merely promoting the A2 protein as being good for you as if it were some kind of healthy additive, instead of emphasising the real point which is that A1 protein is bad for you. Now the company has had to come out and say it clearly for consumers.

That will surely worry the big boys and could even trigger some takeover thoughts, but my feeling is that a lot of A2M's shares are held by people like me who are very dedicated to the cause and know this issue has got a long way to go yet. Iceman is probably right - $5 a share would be giving it away. I'd love to see who are the main holders at present, but my guess is that quite a few will have not forgotten how Fonterra and the Food Safety Authority tried to shut A2C down in the past.

Let's remember, A2 milk sales here and in Australia are just being driven by the ANECDOTAL discovery by consumers that A2 milk is easier to digest than ordinary milk with A1. That's really almost just a side-issue. A2 Corp initially didn't even know about this beneficial aspect of their product and were even reluctant to promote it because of advertising laws. But it has proved awfully useful.

Meanwhile they're still working on the far bigger issue with A1, that it is statistically associated with heart disease and diabetes. The clinical science is gradually getting closer and closer to proving A1's actual (and probable causal) connection with these diseases as well as other major health issues such as autism and even cot deaths. That's what will really scare the mainstream industry, and quite a few NZ dairy farmers who see this are quietly switching towards A2 production already.

As for A2 formula sales to China, this is probably a temporary minor blip. Once Synlait gets its new facilities certified, A2 Platinum should be all go. The real action at the moment is still in milk in NZ-Australia, rather than formula in China, but eventually formula could be huge because according tomy reading the main age-group susceptible to the longterm health risks of A1 would seem to be up till 2 years.

[MAC]

MAC I am not convinced this concerted effort by Lion and parmalat will slow A2M´s inroads into the market.

I think its great that this debate is now in mainstream and frontpage media. It increases the exposure of A2 milk and the debate about its benefits. Those that are already buying A2 milk for health reasons, whether perceived or real, will not be changing back to buy milk that only “contains” A2 protein.

That market segment that is already or is likely to be willing to buy A2 will be doing so for health benefits and will be better educated about the differences between A1 & A2 than the average person. Even if the benefit is still being debated, most people that have or suspect they have problems with A1 milk, will go with the benefit of the doubt and buy A2. Especially if it relates to their children.

It could also be argued that those that can afford to pay the extra $$$ for A2, will be more likely to do so after taking interest in this debate and studying it for themselves. Those swayed by these ads, probably never were real potential A2 customers anyway !

The good thing is that A2M is now on the big radar screens. Interesting times !

Discl.. Accumulating

Perhaps some backfire potential for Parmalat is fair, I'm erring toward agreement with you Iceman, it may well on balance become an overall net positive matter for A2 sales.

Prime time media exposure, a flourishing of the A1/A2 debate, consumers seeing through and avoiding disingenuous competitors, the A1 competition (Lion) endorsing and normalising the A2 protein proposition.

http://www.pria.com.au/priablog/is-bad-mouthing-your-competitors-smart-issue-management

[iceman]

Perhaps some backfire potential for Parmalat is fair, I'm erring toward agreement with you Iceman, it may well on balance become an overall net positive matter for A2 sales.

Prime time media exposure, a flourishing of the A1/A2 debate, consumers seeing through and avoiding disingenuous competitors, the A1 competition (Lion) endorsing and normalising the A2 protein proposition.

http://www.pria.com.au/priablog/is-bad-mouthing-your-competitors-smart-issue-management

Thanks for the link to this interesting article MAC.
It is a not so veiled warning to Parmalat & Crosby Textor to not make "extravagant claims or unfair comparisons ".

This is the part I really like:
"However such an approach on its own is not only questionable in terms of effectiveness, it also smacks of desperation and failure to understand that issue management demands a lot more than just media. With A2 milk now on sale in the United States and reportedly pushing into Parmalat’s home market in Europe, a negative media strategy alone is no adequate response to strong competition and very effective marketing."

Interesting times indeed !

[MAC]

Thanks for the link to this interesting article MAC.
It is a not so veiled warning to Parmalat & Crosby Textor to not make "extravagant claims or unfair comparisons ".

This is the part I really like:
"However such an approach on its own is not only questionable in terms of effectiveness, it also smacks of desperation and failure to understand that issue management demands a lot more than just media. With A2 milk now on sale in the United States and reportedly pushing into Parmalat’s home market in Europe, a negative media strategy alone is no adequate response to strong competition and very effective marketing."

Interesting times indeed !

Another interesting point of note is that they state ATM as having a 9% market share, ATM reported they had got to 8.0% at HY14 reporting.

One would hope that reporters reporting on public relations would have sourced their facts correctly, onward, upward and on track toward, maybe ahead, of the 10% FY15 market share target.

“It’s no wonder Parmalat are getting nervous. Locally produced A2 brand has gone from zero in 2007 to 5% of Australia’s fresh milk market today. More importantly A2 now holds 9% by value of the important supermarket milk market, and is the only milk brand in the top 20 products sold by Coles and Woolworths.”

http://www.pria.com.au/priablog/is-bad-mouthing-your-competitors-smart-issue-management

[iceman]

Remembered I'd read it before so searched and found a summary of a fairly recent paper published in the European Journal of Nutrition. It includes A1A2 in its study, which I assume may be of interest now with some competitors marketing milk "containing A2".
The mice didn't enjoy it as much !

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/a1-beta-casein-gut-inflammation-and-immune-reactions/

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Ice ; that is a compelling article to me ;I've been a little sceptical on A2 and its health benefits ,..until now.

[tango]

With food intolerances and allergies being all the rage I see a strong future for A2 but I have a lot of shares and I almost wish I had sold at the high and bought back in...

[airedale]

Decent volume of 11+million shares traded today without depressing the price {any further}. Maybe the bottom is in or Milford are still buying.

[Cowboy]

Originally posted by Joshuatree Thanks Ice ; that is a compelling article to me ;I've been a little sceptical on A2 and its health benefits ,..until now.

Yes, this article is most informative and somewhat comforting for those of us who have invested in this company, what with all the recent anti and pro comment on the a2 proposition and the assault on it from the Aussie competitors and their PR minions.

However, as an old advert man myself and now a man on the land, I would urge the management of the company not to be lulled into any false sense of security by benignly accepting that ‘any exposure (either pro or con) has got to be good!’

They should now be on the front foot IMHO with the facts (no fibs) but in a consumer friendly manner, not too much ‘high scientific’ fact. For the average consumer, the science is of little interest, it is how the product affects/benefits them that is what they want to know, and in plain, everyday language too. So, I would recommend that a major awareness campaign (not advertising) be undertaken, if not already, to every possible media entity (even all newspapers world wide regularly abound with articles extolling healthy food and beverage consumption etc) detailing the healthy/beneficial aspects of the a2 experience and the fact that for many, many people around the world, whose bodies cannot tolerate milk, a2 will hopefully/probably ‘solve the problem!’

Just look at how ‘topical’ and ‘everyday’ is the non-glutin option. In depth media articles, specialist recipes and specialist products are the norm and have you noticed the premium price these products command? The average fast food customer probably couldn’t care less whether their hamburger bun is ‘glutin-free’ but the thinking consumer who wants to live longer and happier, surely does want to know and is prepared to pay the premium prices for the products their bodies need! This is tailor-made a2 territory too isn’t it?

The ‘antagonists’ in Australia shouldn’t be ignored – sales, market share, reputation and profits are their drivers and they have might and deep pockets on their side so they are not to be underestimated. What we are seeing in Aussie will be no doubt replicated in a2’s other markets too I suspect and sooner rather than later!

There are a plethora of magazines everywhere that expound everything ‘healthy’ and it is to these entities that I would be telling the a2 story. If handled correctly, non paid advertising will result and be more readily accepted by media and customer alike, as ‘fact!’ I’m sure a2 is not contemplating an advertising campaign (I hope not) for it is not a skirmish they will win – they will be outspent and buried by the competition IMHO.

Patient fact and awareness backed up by any research in ‘plainspeak’ to the food/health media would be my approach.

I must say, for whatever the reason, I do find it incongruous that a2 has no presence in this country so recent articles in the NZ Herald and on 9 to noon on Radio NZ probably meant nothing to their respective audiences! Shame!

[tango]

In reality the fall back from the high's is not that great... imagine if it was similar to PEB then you would be kicking yourself for not selling high and buying back low.

I'm in it for the long haul but it clipped $20k off the value in a very short period. Hopefully it will recover soon and go to new highs.

[nextbigthing]

Quick ATM calcs

Shares on issue - approx 655 million

Required return - 7%

Current shareprice = 75c

0.75 x 0.07 x 655000000 = call it $35 mil PA profit required

YR report for period ending 31 Dec 13 has a profit of $640000, however this includes marketing costs of over $5 mil (of which over $3 mil was for new markets which eventually won't be required - and no doubt much higher than eventually required admin costs etc associated with developing the new markets) which could be knocked out to get an idea of profitability. So all other things being near enough to equal, they could easily/conservatively have turned a $5 mil profit by reducing these costs.

$35 mil required profit / $5 mil = 7 times the current situation to make the investment justified.

All the revenue (more or less) came from Australia in this report. Another words they need to replicate what has happened in Oz another six times.

Population of Australia (current market) - approx 23 mil.
Percentage of market - Approx 8%

Population of USA 318m, China 1.35 Billion, UK 63m

They've done well in Australia and I wouldn't expect them to be able to make the some in roads into China due to the obvious such as reachability and income levels etc. However I think it's fairly obvious there's probably six times the Australian situation in the US and UK alone, meaning anything sold in China balances any risk and provides upside on the 7%.

NBT

[nextbigthing]

I see they have a couple of patents due to expire over the next couple of years. I know very little about patents, does anyone know if these can be renewed?

Milfords buy in at these price levels is a fairly good endorsement of the company IMHO.

NBT

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I see they have a couple of patents due to expire over the next couple of years. I know very little about patents, does anyone know if these can be renewed?

Milfords buy in at these price levels is a fairly good endorsement of the company IMHO.

NBT

Patents cannot be renewed. From the date of filing, you get 20 years of exclusive use of your patent. In my view some of a2's patents are questionable at best and potentially wouldn't stand up to any legal challenges.

[MAC]

I see they have a couple of patents due to expire over the next couple of years. I know very little about patents, does anyone know if these can be renewed?

Milfords buy in at these price levels is a fairly good endorsement of the company IMHO.

NBT

Hi NextBigThing,

When it comes to the patent dates, ATM quote the earliest expiry date for each and qualifies with an explanatory note – “Earliest expiry date indicated. The actual date will vary between territories”.

A couple of the early NZ patents may have a couple of years to run, the offshore territory patents probably much longer. Plenty of time to comfortably entrench the brand internationally.

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/A2-Strategic-Review-2012.pdf

many regards, Mac

[MAC]

I’m not a patent lawyer and thus am not qualified to offer an opinion.

Although, either you could be right, or Simpson Grierson could be right, time will tell.

The IP has been subjected to an independent legal review which concluded that the portfolio is strong and well balanced to deliver commercial value in both the short and long term:

“A2C’s intellectual property is balanced across a variety of rights, with strength throughout the supply chain. Chain of title and rights are well documented, allowing a solid basis for exploitation and enforcement” - Simpson Grierson

http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/A2-Strategic-Review-2012.pdf

[airedale]

Decent volume of 11+million shares traded today without depressing the price {any further}. Maybe the bottom is in or Milford are still buying.

And so it came to pass: today's ann: Milford have increased their holding again from 12.1% to 13.75%.

[dingoNZ]

And so it came to pass: today's ann: Milford have increased their holding again from 12.1% to 13.75%.


Its basically the only announcement for ATM, Milford is always increasing their holding.

[MAC]

And so it came to pass: today's ann: Milford have increased their holding again from 12.1% to 13.75%.

At this rate they may catch Freedom Foods as the largest holder on 17.7%.

From my abacus, they have just picked up 2.78% since 2nd April with an 81c spread, not bad and with prospectively positive announcements on the immediate horizon to cement it all too.

[nextbigthing]

Does anyone know how Milford operate, in that will they generally try and do all their buying in a short period and release a SSH notice once they've finished, or is it more of an ongoing thing?

What I'm trying to work out is are they still going to be buying or whether that might be it for a bit?

[dingoNZ]

Does anyone know how Milford operate, in that will they generally try and do all their buying in a short period and release a SSH notice once they've finished, or is it more of an ongoing thing?

What I'm trying to work out is are they still going to be buying or whether that might be it for a bit?

AFAIK its ongoing, Milford don't purchase the entire quantity they want in one go, they generally seem to purchase a small (well large in the scheme of thing) of X shares and then assume to pick up more in the troughs as they present themselves.

[winner69]

Does anyone know how Milford operate, in that will they generally try and do all their buying in a short period and release a SSH notice once they've finished, or is it more of an ongoing thing?

What I'm trying to work out is are they still going to be buying or whether that might be it for a bit?

Take a closer look at the SSH notice .....each tranasction is generally listed

Been buying most days for a while by the looks of it

[nextbigthing]

So from the following SSH notice, you're saying they bought approx 10 mil shares in one day, as opposed to buying up over a week etc



ATM


16/06/2014 15:07


SSH





REL: 1507 HRS The a2 Milk Company Limited





SSH: ATM: SSH - Milford Asset Management Limited





Disclosure of movement of 1% or more in substantial holding or change in


nature of relevant interest or both


Section 23 and 24, Securities Markets Act 1988





Relevant event being disclosed: Change in nature of relevant interest


Date of relevant event: 13th June 2014


To: The New Zealand Stock Exchange


And: A2 Corporation Limited


Date this disclosure made: 16th June 2014


Date last disclosure made: 5th June 2014





Substantial security holder(s) giving disclosure


Name(s): Milford Asset Management Limited


Contact details: Mark Ryland, Risk and Compliance Manager, contact:


(09) 921 4746


E-mail: mryland@milfordasset.com





Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates


Class of listed voting securities: Ordinary Share


Summary for: Milford Asset Management Limited


For this disclosure, --


(a) total number held in class: 90,750,981


(b) total in class: 660,066,979


(c) total percentage held in class: 13.75% (note, relevant interests held by


the manager as follows):


Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.44%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (3.23%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.37%), (Custodian - TEA


Custodians),


Waikato Community Trust (0.26%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.95%), (Custodian - New Zealand


Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited)


Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (1.18%), (Custodian - BNP Paribas Securities


Limited).





For the last disclosure,--


(a) total number held in class: 80,417,812


(b) total in class: 660,066,979


(c) total percentage held in class: 12.18% (note, relevant interests held by


the manager as follows):


Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.28%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (2.68%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.31%), (Custodian - TEA


Custodians),


Waikato Community Trust (0.21%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),


New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.41%), (Custodian - New Zealand


Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited)


Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (0.97%), (Custodian - BNP Paribas Securities


Limited).





Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event


Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the


instructions to this form: Milford Asset Management Limited undertook the


below on market transactions:


[please see attachment for details of transaction]





Additional information


Nature of connection between substantial security holders: NA


Address(es) of substantial security holder(s): Milford Asset Management


Limited, Level 17, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland 1140, New Zealand.


Name of any other person believed to have given, or believed to be required


to give, a disclosure under the Act in relation to the securities to which


this disclosure relates: NA





Declaration


I, Mark Ryland declare that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the


information contained in this disclosure is correct and that I am duly


authorised to make this disclosure by all persons for whom it is made.


End CA:00251631 For:ATM Type:SSH Time:2014-06-16 15:07:50

[dingoNZ]

4 SSH changes since February, see the attachment. They are progressively purchasing.

[Joshuatree]

Re 8 million bought from 5th to 13th june.There is another page there that itemises this.

[winner69]

Nextbigthing ......open up the full notice ...the PDF that comes with it

The details are all in there ....by day/tranasction

The announcement yesterday .....go to the last page
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/195425.pdf

[nextbigthing]

Nextbigthing ......open up the full notice ...the PDF that comes with it

The details are all in there ....by day/tranasction

The announcement yesterday .....go to the last page
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/195425.pdf

Ah thanks Winner. That explains that. Cheers

[Xerof]

lol, they seem to have cocked it up in terms of consideration for the number of shares purchased each day. NZX Discipline - large fine, public thrashing.....

[Arndale]

Nextbigthing ......open up the full notice ...the PDF that comes with it

The details are all in there ....by day/tranasction

The announcement yesterday .....go to the last page
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/195425.pdf

I was hoping someone could shed some light on this for me please, as it makes no sense if you look at each individual transaction. For instance:

13 June 2014, Milford purchased 16,000 shares for $2,416,203.45. That equals $151 / share!

Conversely, 10 June 2014, Milford purchased 1,000,000 shares for $25,801.20.

Yet when you add up all the shares listed in the document from sales between 5 June and 13 June, and also add up the total amount of consideration, then divide them, you get an average price of 77.5 cents per share - which makes sense (if my maths is correct).

The end result of 77.5 cents a share sounds right to me but the individual transactions do not.

Thanks in advance.

[winner69]

lol, they seem to have cocked it up in terms of consideration for the number of shares purchased each day. NZX Discipline - large fine, public thrashing.....

bit on embarrassment eh.

I pointed it out to Mark .... clerical transpositions he said .... and hoped that nobody else would notice so he wouldn't have to refile it.

Bet he reverts to the old trick of just saying 'On market purchase of x shares for $y between now and then' instead of a copy and paste out of the system

[Arndale]

bit on embarrassment eh.

I pointed it out to Mark .... clerical transpositions he said .... and hoped that nobody else would notice so he wouldn't have to refile it.

Bet he reverts to the old trick of just saying 'On market purchase of x shares for $y between now and then' instead of a copy and paste out of the system

Thanks winner, that makes sense.

Do companies at a bare minimum have to disclose the number of shares at a particular price over a particular duration, or do they just have to disclose that they now have X% of shares being Y of the total number of shares on issue?

[winner69]

Thanks winner, that makes sense.

Do companies at a bare minimum have to disclose the number of shares at a particular price over a particular duration, or do they just have to disclose that they now have X% of shares being Y of the total number of shares on issue?

They fill in Form 2 (like the one you see) according to how they interpret the Guidelines (to filling out Form 2)

The full PDF that Milford do showing their transactions is good practice (when they get the detail right)

However disclosures are not always about buying and selling .......but if they clearly state th events giving rise to the disclosure that's all thats needed.

I still think there should be a summary at the top for the quick readers or less bright in this world .....in simple words. Like one sentence " 'Milford has increased in shareholding in ATM from x% to y% by buying z shares on market between then and now'

[Arndale]

I still think there should be a summary at the top for the quick readers or less bright in this world .....in simple words. Like one sentence " 'Milford has increased in shareholding in ATM from x% to y% by buying z shares on market between then and now'

I agree with this as it would save readers having to go through the detail comparing "For this disclosure" to "For the last disclosure," and give you a good snapshot of whats going on.

[waikare]

I agree with this as it would save readers having to go through the detail comparing "For this disclosure" to "For the last disclosure," and give you a good snapshot of whats going on.

I totally agree either the form they are required to complete be made more user friendly, and or include a small brief summary………………… number of share sold / purchased, % increase / decrease.

[nextbigthing]

13 million shares have gone through already this morning!

If it's Milford again soon they might need to change their name to A2Milford or something.

[Arndale]

13 million shares have gone through already this morning!

If it's Milford again soon they might need to change their name to A2Milford or something.

Just did a quick tally and if it is them it takes there holding to 15.7% from 13.7%.

Again, if this was them would they have to disclose it via the form 2?

[NT001]

Do we know on whose behalf Milford is buying? Might it be for the Super Fund? I totally agree with the comments about how hard it is for a layperson to figure out the significance of those formal NZX notifications - there should be a plain language statement.

I'm new to this thread but have been holding ATM a long time (fortunately). Do others share my concerns about the number of shares/options that seem to have been allocated to executives etc? I'm opposed to options, bonuses etc and think that with limited exceptions remuneration should be by way of salary package. When a company is operating in several different markets with an incentive needed in each, this could get a bit out of hand.

[Arndale]

Do we know on whose behalf Milford is buying? Might it be for the Super Fund? I totally agree with the comments about how hard it is for a layperson to figure out the significance of those formal NZX notifications - there should be a plain language statement.

I'm new to this thread but have been holding ATM a long time (fortunately). Do others share my concerns about the number of shares/options that seem to have been allocated to executives etc? I'm opposed to options, bonuses etc and think that with limited exceptions remuneration should be by way of salary package. When a company is operating in several different markets with an incentive needed in each, this could get a bit out of hand.

In the last disclosure the shares were separated across seven funds. So yes part of that was the Super Fund.

Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.44%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (3.23%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.37%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Waikato Community Trust (0.26%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.95%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited)
Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (1.18%), (Custodian – BNP Paribas Securities Limited).

[MAC]

Do we know on whose behalf Milford is buying? Might it be for the Super Fund? I totally agree with the comments about how hard it is for a layperson to figure out the significance of those formal NZX notifications - there should be a plain language statement.

I'm new to this thread but have been holding ATM a long time (fortunately). Do others share my concerns about the number of shares/options that seem to have been allocated to executives etc? I'm opposed to options, bonuses etc and think that with limited exceptions remuneration should be by way of salary package. When a company is operating in several different markets with an incentive needed in each, this could get a bit out of hand.

Shareholders approved said package limits at the last AGM in November.

I’m actually ok with the execs taking these packages, there needs to be a competitive incentive to retain, or in ATM’s case, continue growing the executive team internationally now.

Like most I think, I’ve been impressed with Geoff Babbage in bringing the company to where it is, and in just a few years. Some of the new execs do need to prove themselves a little more though, let’s give them a chance and see as it's early for some.

IMHO It’s better for shareholders in going international with the right leadership rather than with cheaper good local talent but with not the right exp. Many a company has made this mistake.

[Ginger_steps_]

A side note... Infant formula at my local Coles supermarket has gone from $32 a tin down to $24. What may have caused such a radical drop?? Supply shortage - therefore its going out of date on the shelves? Uptake a bit slow?

[MAC]

Just did a quick tally and if it is them it takes there holding to 15.7% from 13.7%.

Again, if this was them would they have to disclose it via the form 2?

Certainly an entity like Milford with a small army of analysts doesn't typically invest that much that quickly without having sat with management and picked the company and prospects to bits. I would love to have been a fly on that wall.

[nextbigthing]

Certainly an entity like Milford with a small army of analysts doesn't typically invest that much that quickly without having sat with management and picked the company and prospects to bits. I would love to have been a fly on that wall.

Agreed. It's a massive endorsement IMHO. Actions speak louder than words!

[Arndale]

You're right, in the past they haven't seemed to have purchased more than a million in one hit (excluding 1.9mil in Feb).

[sommelier]

What do the chartists think? Support back in November was about 74c. If it hits 78c today it crosses the MA50. Is that a buy trigger?

[zigzag]

A side note... Infant formula at my local Coles supermarket has gone from $32 a tin down to $24. What may have caused such a radical drop?? Supply shortage - therefore its going out of date on the shelves? Uptake a bit slow?

Perhaps it was destined for China, and has been diverted, because of access problems.

[Ginger_steps_]

Been watching dairy auction prices lately?

Yes, but does that justify a 25% drop in product price? None of the competitors have changed their prices.

[Joshuatree]

Im a novice in T/a but that looks like the lower risk way to buy back/ in sommeller which is what I'm waiting to do Big vol too today. re 13 million million.

[Ginger_steps_]

Or its a big FU to the Australian dairy companies who are trying to distort the A2 branding. They are pricing the product as if it were standard formula not niche - hence taking the big guys on directly. May be a very smart move, it will at least allow them to test the Aussie market for infant formula.

I hope this is the case!

[MAC]

A side note... Infant formula at my local Coles supermarket has gone from $32 a tin down to $24. What may have caused such a radical drop?? Supply shortage - therefore its going out of date on the shelves? Uptake a bit slow?

Looks like the babes like it Gingersteps;

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2-platinum-premium-infant-formula-stage-1.html

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2-platinum-premium-follow-on-formula.html

Perhaps Coles are doing one of those down down down down things they do at present ?

[Ginger_steps_]

Looks like the babes like it Gingersteps;

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2-platinum-premium-infant-formula-stage-1.html

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2-platinum-premium-follow-on-formula.html

Perhaps Coles are doing one of those down down down down things they do at present ?

Wow those a rave reviews aren't they! Its definitely not a down down discount as they are marked differently with a red tag. Its not a special either as they are marked with yellow tags. They normal white price tags that go into the plasctic tag holders have been changed so I guess its a long term price change. Perhaps price was the biggest factor in people not buying it.... Interesting to see on the product review site that the RRP is $41.50!! And if you click the "show prices" button it says $189 on ebay for sales in Asia. Wow.

[MAC]

Thanks for that GS, I suspect KW is right, that ATM may well be kick starting market share for platinum now in Australia by taking on the incumbents directly for a while.

Given that the Synlait plant is operating at less than full capacity this year, and not meeting its production output quota, I would not be surprised to hear that ATM might take an opportunity to increase the contracted platinum production rate too.

[nextbigthing]

Hello, Police, I'd like to report a theft. Someone is stealing ATM shares at 72c.

Perhaps the crime is someone selling them at that price.

[MAC]

We must be getting close to receiving an investor presentation on this, hello, Geoff, Susan ?


NORTH AMERCIA MARKET ENTRY
The launch of a2™ brand fresh milk into the United States market has been under consideration for some time and is to be the next priority growth initiative. Given the UK business is now established and showing growth from a small base, the Board considers an entry plan for the USA should now be developed. The Company has strong intellectual property rights and know-how in this market and consumer research confirms the attractiveness of the A2 proposition. In addition, the industry and market dynamics are considered favourable to a market entry strategy for our product.

The plan would involve the Company establishing its activities through a wholly owned USA subsidiary and recruiting a small management team with in-market experience. As part of the development, a2™ brand milk will be showcased at a major natural foods exhibition to be held in California in March.

[PartyPooper]

Any news would be nice at the moment. Going from 5% on my portfolio to -4% thanks to my large ATM holding on average 82 cent buy, brings a tear to my eye right now.

Keeping the faith for now.

[nextbigthing]

Any news would be nice at the moment. Going from 5% on my portfolio to -4% thanks to my large ATM holding on average 82 cent buy, brings a tear to my eye right now.

Keeping the faith for now.

Unless you need the money urgently I wouldn't be too concerned.

[couta1]

Unless you need the money urgently I wouldn't be too concerned.
I'm not sure why people even worry about a small deviation of -4% its just run of the mill stuff really, mines -24% so just a tad more but still no reason to call in the milkman if your long:cool:

[goldfish]

I'm not sure why people even worry about a small deviation of -4% its just run of the mill stuff really, mines -24% so just a tad more but still no reason to call in the milkman if your long:cool:

I can only talk for myself but i only buy uptrending stocks, and if i buy in and it drops 4% then i have got it wrong and id rather sell out and buy back in when the trend changes. Its a simple stop loss that has saved me thousands, in my short investing time of a year.
I know it goes against what most people say but i find it works for me.
If it was still a bull market id do it differently but in this market environment i feel that tight stoplosses are the best. I have never regretted selling out at a small loss.

[PartyPooper]

I can only talk for myself but i only buy uptrending stocks, and if i buy in and it drops 4% then i have got it wrong and id rather sell out and buy back in when the trend changes. Its a simple stop loss that has saved me thousands, in my short investing time of a year.
I know it goes against what most people say but i find it works for me.
If it was still a bull market id do it differently but in this market environment i feel that tight stoplosses are the best. I have never regretted selling out at a small loss.

Kinda of in the same boat. I usually don't hold stocks I'm making a loss on got rid of mighty river power far to late and lost on it.
I've always ended up making the right calls when trading Xero, Telecom and SLI so was disappointing to to see ATM go into the red.
I think my issue was I saw ATM in the uptrend and brought to try make a quick profit then after buying decided it would be better with my RYM and SUM in my long term holdings.

Right now I'm debating whether to average down ATM, get more RYM/SUM or go AOG on the ASX.

[nextbigthing]

Right now I'm debating whether to average down ATM, get more RYM/SUM or go AOG on the ASX.

Why average down now? It's in a slight downtrend. The same may happen. Why not wait until it's trending back up and then average down as it's going up.

Unless you really believe in the company as a long term prospect in which case buy as many as you can, a few cents won't matter...

[nextbigthing]

As part of my on going research into any stock I like to talk to people who dislike the stock to get an idea of why and to see if they noticed something I've missed.

So is there anybody out there who thinks ATM isn't a great long term investment and why? What do you see as the big risks to ATM?

Snoopy I know you have previously said it's well overpriced given the current earnings (PE). However I would argue if you look at how well they've done in Australia, how much profit they could be posting and the size of the market left to penetrate (amongst other factors) then a high PE based on current earnings is justifiable.

Thanks in advance. NBT

[winner69]

The ATM chart had a DEATH CROSS on it the other day (50ma / 200ma), usually not a good sign and price action since supports this view.

Just thought you punters might be interested

But some punters think death crosses are BULLISH so no worries

[winner69]

Decent volume of 11+million shares traded today without depressing the price {any further}. Maybe the bottom is in or Milford are still buying.

That day seems to have been the catalyst for the shareprice to head to the 60's

Does that mean somebody still selling?

C'mon Milford ...punters want you to take the price back to the 80's at least

[psychic]

Don't know that there is much wrong with the science as such Black Knat , my understanding was that there were just a lot more drinking it than needed to ? But whatever rocks their boat..

[Joshuatree]

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/c...1-and-a2-milk/ (http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/category/a1-and-a2-milk/)

Read this black knat it changed my view(thanks snapiti)