ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[silu]

It's not that I don't believe the proposition of A2 milk but, since I don't have any problem with regular milk, why would I change to something more expensive?

If it works for someone then that is good, if it doesn't matter then that is good too.

That's totally fine. I made the joke once that A2 Milk is for people with made up diseases.

[minimoke]

That's totally fine. I made the joke once that A2 Milk is for people with made up diseases.Broadly I might agree - in a western context. But that's not meant to be objectionable to those with lactose intolerance.

What gets me is studies that suggest being lactose tolerant is a genetic mutations from the last 10,000 years or so. Something that westerners who have been exposed to sheep, goats and cows and genetically evolved. Given asia (and Asians) havent been exposed to so much lactose (other than babies at birth) they have evolved with this lactose tolerance. Hence they err on being lactose intolerant.

So if the vast majority of Asians are said to be genetically lactose intolerant and A2 milk enables them to consume milk then this would be a huge market. A market where you wouldn't want to be wasting your resource by selling it to NZ'ers.

We should be keeping an eye out on the ongoing research in this area.

In the mena time if people "feel" a benefit from consuming A2 then good on them for keeping the share price up

[Leftfield]

That's totally fine. I made the joke once that A2 Milk is for people with made up diseases.

If that stopped you investing in ATM, then the joke may be on you.

Remember, ATM was introduced into the Australian market during 'supermarket milk price wars' and despite not discounting, and despite charging a premium, ATM still achieved an amazing market share (estimated between 10 - 15% for raw milk and 30% for IF)

ATM doesn't need to resort to science (or discounted prices) to prove its market difference - the market is deciding the benefits of A2 for itself.

[silu]

If that stopped you investing in ATM, then the joke may be on you.

Remember, ATM was introduced into the Australian market during 'supermarket milk price wars' and despite not discounting, and despite charging a premium, ATM still achieved an amazing market share (estimated between 10 - 15% for raw milk and 30% for IF)

ATM doesn't need to resort to science (or discounted prices) to prove it's market difference - the market is deciding the benefits of A2 for itself.

Nah I've been a shareholder for many years. One of my friends worked for A2 Milk early 2000's. I filled up my boots early 2015 but sold along the way to fund my first house but I still have enough.

It was meant to be a lighthearted joke. I had a bar/restaurant for years and the amount of made-up diseases I had to listen to were very funny in the most part.

I like your line "the market is deciding the benefits of A2 for itself" - I'm so confident that in a market like Australia a study could comprehensively show that A2 Milk has no benefits at all and yet customers would continued to buy. Branding is the key and in that aspect A2 Milk has kicked all the goals.

[44wishlists]

It certainly seems an odd decision to me. Why are they buying overpriced stainless steel instead of using every dollar they have to grow the company. Does it mean that they do not see much more growth being achievable?

You got think of the bigger picture, and apply some reverse thinking. I see that A2 took out a blocking stake in Synlait because they are preventing the possibility of a taking over on Synlait, which could lead to a delisting from the NZX, and also potentially adversely impact the Synlait supply to A2. This is a medium term defensive play, and I would said a very good move by the management team, and to Ms Hrdlicka

[h2so4]

Nah I've been a shareholder for many years. One of my friends worked for A2 Milk early 2000's. I filled up my boots early 2015 but sold along the way to fund my first house but I still have enough.

It was meant to be a lighthearted joke. I had a bar/restaurant for years and the amount of made-up diseases I had to listen to were very funny in the most part.

I like your line "the market is deciding the benefits of A2 for itself" - I'm so confident that in a market like Australia a study could comprehensively show that A2 Milk has no benefits at all and yet customers would continued to buy. Branding is the key and in that aspect A2 Milk has kicked all the goals.

The benefits are right there on the label. This is not a low fat watered down product with boosted calcium and increased sugar and salt levels. Supermarkets here are full of low grade variants that sell for $1 per L. It comes down to customer choice.
A2 or something else.

[dobby41]

Supermarkets here are full of low grade variants that sell for $1 per L. It comes down to customer choice.
A2 or something else.

Supermarkets are full of variants!
A2 is now one of them.
The other variants are more than high water, low fat blah blah.
Don't let your bias get in the way of seeing the true picture.

[bull....]

Nah I've been a shareholder for many years. One of my friends worked for A2 Milk early 2000's. I filled up my boots early 2015 but sold along the way to fund my first house but I still have enough.

It was meant to be a lighthearted joke. I had a bar/restaurant for years and the amount of made-up diseases I had to listen to were very funny in the most part.

I like your line "the market is deciding the benefits of A2 for itself" - I'm so confident that in a market like Australia a study could comprehensively show that A2 Milk has no benefits at all and yet customers would continued to buy. Branding is the key and in that aspect A2 Milk has kicked all the goals.

exactly that why hrdlicker is in charge , she a brand expert not a scientist. not long to wait to results lol i like results time it often leads to big moves

[h2so4]

Supermarkets are full of variants!
A2 is now one of them.
The other variants are more than high water, low fat blah blah.
Don't let your bias get in the way of seeing the true picture.

What bias?
A2 is ingested. It’s your taste buds that decide what you like.

Have you tried A2?
You can stretch your budget by making yoghurt and cream cheese and there is even enough whey left to soak your oats overnight. Your taste buds will light up and you will be incredibly satiated.

All milk is the same right?..???

[minimoke]

What bias?
A2 is ingested. It’s your taste buds that decide what you like.

Have you tried A2?
You can stretch your budget by making yoghurt and cream cheese and there is even enough whey left to soak your oats overnight. Your taste buds will light up and you will be incredibly satiated.

All milk is the same right?..???This is beginning to sound like one of those wine / whiskey type threads. All of which end with the only objective thing being price while taste remains wholly subjective.

Not that I mind - I'm holding ATM partly on the basis of consumer wallets.

[Lego_Man]

This is beginning to sound like one of those wine / whiskey type threads. All of which end with the only objective thing being price while taste remains wholly subjective.

Not that I mind - I'm holding ATM partly on the basis of consumer wallets.


Whisky is an awful drink. Who'd want to consume something that tasted of hydrocarbons?

[BlackPeter]

Whisky is an awful drink. Who'd want to consume something that tasted of hydrocarbons?

When ever did you consume anything which does not taste of hydrocarbon? I guess sure, you can drink pure water (Dihydro-oxide), eat pure salt (sodium-chloride - though not recommendable in larger quantities), but anything else you consume consist out of hydrocarbons: starch, oil, fat, fiber, fruit, vegetables, meat, ...

[dobby41]

All milk is the same right?..???

Wrong as I suggested.

[h2so4]

This is beginning to sound like one of those wine / whiskey type threads. All of which end with the only objective thing being price while taste remains wholly subjective.

Not that I mind - I'm holding ATM partly on the basis of consumer wallets.

I’ve got an $8.775b dollar valuation for ATM or you can have my yoghurt recipe for free.

[minimoke]

Whisky is an awful drink. Who'd want to consume something that tasted of hydrocarbons?Cough , splutter - how do i ban/block a forum member so I don't get to see such outrageous posts. Whiskey is the nectar of the gods!

[winner69]

exactly that why hrdlicker is in charge , she a brand expert not a scientist. not long to wait to results lol i like results time it often leads to big moves

Hrdlicker a brand expert and not a scientist .....so right bull

Probably has the odd whiskey as well

[dabsman]

Whisky is an awful drink. Who'd want to consume something that tasted of hydrocarbons?

Can't we mark this comment as objectionable? Even a religious slur? Haha

[bull....]

Hrdlicker a brand expert and not a scientist .....so right bull

Probably has the odd whiskey as well

too true, she will probably need a stiff one at some stage

[moka]

Cough , splutter - how do i ban/block a forum member so I don't get to see such outrageous posts. Whiskey is the nectar of the gods!

It’s a bit of a worry when diversity in personal preferences is seen as offensive. Whiskey does taste of hydrocarbons – petrol or turps, hence on the turps.

[Lego_Man]

When ever did you consume anything which does not taste of hydrocarbon? I guess sure, you can drink pure water (Dihydro-oxide), eat pure salt (sodium-chloride - though not recommendable in larger quantities), but anything else you consume consist out of hydrocarbons: starch, oil, fat, fiber, fruit, vegetables, meat, ...

As defined by IUPAC nomenclature of organic chemistry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUPAC_nomenclature_of_organic_chemistry), the classifications for hydrocarbons are:


Saturated hydrocarbons are the simplest of the hydrocarbon species. They are composed entirely of single bonds and are saturated with hydrogen. The formula for acyclic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-chain_compound) saturated hydrocarbons (i.e., alkanes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alkanes)) is CnH2n+2.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-Silberberg-1):623 The most general form of saturated hydrocarbons is CnH2n+2(1-r), where r is the number of rings. Those with exactly one ring are the cycloalkanes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycloalkanes). Saturated hydrocarbons are the basis of petroleum fuels and are found as either linear or branched species. Substitution reaction is their characteristics property (like chlorination reaction to form chloroform). Hydrocarbons with the same molecular formula (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_formula) but different structural formulae (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_formula) are called structural isomers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_isomer).[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-Silberberg-1):625 As given in the example of 3-methylhexane and its higher homologues (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homology_(chemistry)), branched hydrocarbons can be chiral (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(chemistry)).[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-Silberberg-1):627 Chiral saturated hydrocarbons constitute the side chains of biomolecules such as chlorophyll (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorophyll) and tocopherol (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocopherol).[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-5)
Unsaturated hydrocarbons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsaturated_hydrocarbon) have one or more double or triple bonds between carbon atoms. Those with double bond are called alkenes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alkene). Those with one double bond have the formula CnH2n (assuming non-cyclic structures).[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-Silberberg-1):628 Those containing triple bonds are called alkyne (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alkyne). Those with one triple bond have the formula CnH2n−2.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon#cite_note-Silberberg-1):631
Aromatic hydrocarbons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromatic_hydrocarbon), also known as arenes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arene), are hydrocarbons that have at least one aromatic ring (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromatic_ring).

Hydrocarbons can be gases (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas) (e.g. methane (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane) and propane (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane)), liquids (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid) (e.g. hexane (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hexane) and benzene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benzene)), waxes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wax) or low melting solids (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid) (e.g. paraffin wax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraffin_wax) and naphthalene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naphthalene)) or polymers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymer) (e.g. polyethylene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyethylene), polypropylene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polypropylene) and polystyrene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polystyrene)).

[dabsman]

It’s a bit of a worry when diversity in personal preferences is seen as offensive. Whiskey does taste of hydrocarbons – petrol or turps, hence on the turps.

Welcome to the new world. You can only find offence in things that the left agree with ;)

[bull....]

add a little water will disrupt the hydrocarbons

[winner69]

add a little water will disrupt the hydrocarbons

He needs a drop of thinners


.......ie he’s rather thick


Old workshop saying

[minimoke]

It’s a bit of a worry when diversity in personal preferences is seen as offensive. Whiskey does taste of hydrocarbons – petrol or turps, hence on the turps.Another person whose head is filled with the devils words!

[visionary]

I saw this in the shelves of Moore Wilsons today, but have not seen it before. Is it actual A2, or someone's effort of a "done it myself" without realising there is a trademark in play?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15fodZmE1u1fvNIadgeHcfJhOU9yUqBg7/view?usp=drivesdk

[percy]

Cows produce either A1 or A2 milk.Most milk you buy is a mix of A1 and A2 milk..
Most Jersey cows produce A2 milk.
So the label is most probably correct.

[visionary]

Now, I am more confused than I was when I saw the bottle. It makes me worry that those without the desire to investigate would be even more confused, leading to A2 not reaching potential in some circumstances (people thinking they are buying real a2 milk from the a2 Milk Company when they aren't).

[see weed]

I saw this in the shelves of Moore Wilsons today, but have not seen it before. Is it actual A2, or someone's effort of a "done it myself" without realising there is a trademark in play?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15fodZmE1u1fvNIadgeHcfJhOU9yUqBg7/view?usp=drivesdk
You could give the a2 milk Company a little ph call to make sure it is all above board and not under the table;). Or is it part of Fonterra?

[Xerof]

Family run business out of Matamata

https://www.jerseygirlorganics.co.nz

[dobby41]

Now, I am more confused than I was when I saw the bottle. It makes me worry that those without the desire to investigate would be even more confused, leading to A2 not reaching potential in some circumstances (people thinking they are buying real a2 milk from the a2 Milk Company when they aren't).

Or people could be happy that they are getting 'A2' milk and don't care if it comes from ATM - it's the A2 bit they want.
After all, buying Fonterra A2 milk isn't really buying ATM milk is it.

But then ATM is a marketing company - they don't actually make anything do they?

[BlackPeter]

Actually - I doubt it is possible to trademark the term "A2". Too short and too generic. And anyway - that's not what ATM did.

Here is ATM's trademark:

https://trademarks.justia.com/854/53/a2-85453431.html

To violate the trademark competitors would need to use an "a2" using specific defined colours and a particular shape:


The mark consists of the term "a2" in white contained within a blue oval all appearing above the term "milk" in blue, wherein a white droplet appears within the lower portion of the letter "a".

There is no law stopping cows to produce A2 milk ... and I don't see any reasons why sellers would not be allowed to state this fact (if it is true). The A2 milk company has no monopoly on selling and marketing milk which contains only the A2 and not the A1 protein.

Competition is good ...

[kiora]

Actually - I doubt it is possible to trademark the term "A2". Too short and too generic. And anyway - that's not what ATM did.

Here is ATM's trademark:

https://trademarks.justia.com/854/53/a2-85453431.html

To violate the trademark competitors would need to use an "a2" using specific defined colours and a particular shape:



There is no law stopping cows to produce A2 milk ... and I don't see any reasons why sellers would not be allowed to state this fact (if it is true). The A2 milk company has no monopoly on selling and marketing milk which contains only the A2 and not the A1 protein.

Competition is good ...

The hype surrounding A2 milk came about after the patenting of a genetic test by the a2 Milk Company. The patent allows the company to determine what type of protein a cow produces in its milk and therefore license dairy farmers that prove their cows express only A2 protein in their milk (and not A1 protein). A2 milk is marketed by the a2 Milk Company to contain only the A2 type of beta-casein.

[bull....]

the staff leaving has begun

[longy]

the staff leaving has begun

Is this one of those a new CEO came in and rearrange the offices???

[couta1]

the staff leaving has begun News flash,staff come and go,nothing to see,move right along.

:

[bull....]

News flash,staff come and go,nothing to see,move right along.

:

the price is down, he must have been a nice fella everyone sad to see him leave

[minimoke]

the staff leaving has begun
So no one in ATM left yesterday or the week before or in the past month?

[minimoke]

the price is down, he must have been a nice fella everyone sad to see him leaveThe market is very wise - they hav must have known he was leaving for the past 3 months

[bull....]

The market is very wise - they hav must have known he was leaving for the past 3 months

not sure about that if todays price action is looked at , big surprice obviously

[couta1]

the price is down, he must have been a nice fella everyone sad to see him leave Nah,just another day where the market forgot to take it's schizo meds.

[44wishlists]

I think it's more related to the overnight NZ dairy price auction, which down 1.7% But IMO, nothing serious. Business as usual.

[winner69]

Mark Lister from Craig’s is annoyed as well .....does make you wonder why a guru would come out and tweet things like this


Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
8/08/18, 10:56 AM
It’s so annoying how some shares go up and some go down, and you can’t really predict with great accuracy which of them will do what.

[percy]

Mark Lister from Craig’s is annoyed as well .....does make you wonder why a guru would come out and tweet things like this


Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
8/08/18, 10:56 AM
It’s so annoying how some shares go up and some go down, and you can’t really predict with great accuracy which of them will do what.

Great knowing I am not the only one who has this problem.!!!...lol.

[silu]

Apparently Citigroup downgraded A2. But then they did this when it was under $2. Also apparently Australian Aumake daigou seller will sell their own branded A2 milk powder.

[Beagle]

Mark Lister from Craig’s is annoyed as well .....does make you wonder why a guru would come out and tweet things like this


Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
8/08/18, 10:56 AM
It’s so annoying how some shares go up and some go down, and you can’t really predict with great accuracy which of them will do what.

:lol: :lol: Made my day and glad I am not the only one that feels like that.

[couta1]

Apparently Citigroup downgraded A2. But then they did this when it was under $2. Also apparently Australian Aumake daigou seller will sell their own branded A2 milk powder. Lol, Citigroup master shorters and market manipulators downgrading,you can really trust these guys aye.

[Dust]

Lol, Citigroup master shorters and market manipulators downgrading,you can really trust these guys aye.

Pretty ****ty manipulators if they were doing it, considering their failing bank..The analyst looks about 16, wouldnt trust him with mum's supermarket receipts. Have fun handing over your cheap shares to the instos and start chasing again at 15 bucks lol

[Timesurfer]

Mark Lister from Craig’s is annoyed as well .....does make you wonder why a guru would come out and tweet things like this


Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
8/08/18, 10:56 AM
It’s so annoying how some shares go up and some go down, and you can’t really predict with great accuracy which of them will do what.

Kind of hard to justify your hefty commission as a fund manager if you are pulling investment decisions out of a hat?

[bull....]

Kind of hard to justify your hefty commission as a fund manager if you are pulling investment decisions out of a hat?

haha probably a disgruntled a2 holder since there upgrade

[bull....]

Apparently Citigroup downgraded A2. But then they did this when it was under $2. Also apparently Australian Aumake daigou seller will sell their own branded A2 milk powder.

massive downgrade to sell

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/08/08/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-asxa2m-shares-are-sinking-lower/

[winner69]

massive downgrade to sell

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/08/08/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-asxa2m-shares-are-sinking-lower/

That’s a sick looking chart in that article

Did Fool say “However, I still see more value in the shares of rival Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL).”

[Beagle]

massive downgrade to sell

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/08/08/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-asxa2m-shares-are-sinking-lower/

LOL looks like a good work of fiction on Citi's part.

[sb9]

massive downgrade to sell

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/08/08/why-a2-milk-company-ltd-asxa2m-shares-are-sinking-lower/

Sure is and lest we forget the below article from same crowd when Citi downgraded them when the price was $1.84 in Oct 2016 and fast forward 2 years where we are now...

https://www.fool.com.au/2016/10/27/a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-is-it-boom-and-bust-for-baby-formula/

And who can forget that (in)famous analyst from Citi Mr Sam Teeger.

[Lego_Man]

Kind of hard to justify your hefty commission as a fund manager if you are pulling investment decisions out of a hat?

I actually can't work out if he's being ironic, or is genuinely that inane?

Edit: Looks like it's the latter, judging by his Twitter record. How about this gem:

Mark Lister‏ @MarkListerNZ (https://twitter.com/MarkListerNZ) Aug 3 (https://twitter.com/MarkListerNZ/status/1025277163145125888)More



Just paid my annual rates bill, which is 4.2% of the value of my house. So my house has to rise by that degree each year for me to simply break even on my rates, before I even consider interest, inflation, insurance, or maintenance. Who said property was a great investment again?


There's simply no way this is possible. He's innumerate.

[Beagle]

Sure is and lest we forget the below article from same crowd when Citi downgraded them when the price was $1.84 in Oct 2016 and fast forward 2 years where we are now...

https://www.fool.com.au/2016/10/27/a2-milk-company-ltd-australia-is-it-boom-and-bust-for-baby-formula/

And who can forget that (in)famous analyst from Citi Mr Sam Teeger.

LOL They deserve an award for that, a badge of honour, sure there's something appropriate here https://www.trademe.co.nz/home-living/party-festive-supplies/other/listing-1719187747.htm Most appropriate one could be "I give up, what planet are you from" ?

[bull....]

craigs say upgrade recently price declined , citi downgrades price declines looks like citi moves the market more than craigs on this stock.

[Timesurfer]

Just paid my annual rates bill, which is 4.2% of the value of my house. So my house has to rise by that degree each year for me to simply break even on my rates, before I even consider interest, inflation, insurance, or maintenance. Who said property was a great investment again?

No mention of how a geared investment works, cost savings from not renting, growing capital, or a myriad of non financial benefits work in the propery market.

I take it he applies similar lack of logic to his stock investment choices.
A2 has to rise by my interest bill, inflation, loss of potential earnings from other sources, tax, doctor's bills for stress treatment. Before it can be considered a good investment.

[Beagle]

No mention of how a geared investment works, cost savings from not renting, growing capital, or a myriad of non financial benefits work in the propery market.

I take it he applies similar lack of logic to his stock investment choices.
A2 has to rise by my interest bill, inflation, loss of potential earnings from other sources, tax, doctor's bills for stress treatment. Before it can be considered a good investment.

Surely one has to factor in regular psychotherapists visits as well !
Friend of mine just started paying $800 a week rent for a nice 4 bedroom house in Auckland. Makes me appreciate my mortgage free one even with the dreadful rates bills !

[Joshuatree]

No wonder school teachers etc are asking for a rent subsidy in auck, tauranga etc.Even a psychotherapist cant help a Fried on mind:)

[Beagle]

No wonder school teachers etc are asking for a rent subsidy in auck, tauranga etc.Even a psychotherapist cant help a Fried on mind:)

Spell check when you have the flu doesn't save you from everything either ! Yes rent for a decent house in a decent suburb is truly shocking in Auckland.

[forest]

craigs say upgrade recently price declined , citi downgrades price declines looks like citi moves the market more than craigs on this stock.

I think I read some were that Citi is often shorting shares in companies, so it seems in their interest to downgrade company values more than is reasonable. Be careful with Citi's valuations.

[bull....]

Apparently Citigroup downgraded A2. But then they did this when it was under $2. Also apparently Australian Aumake daigou seller will sell their own branded A2 milk powder.

aumake signed supply deal with nz pure nutrition to sell a1 and a2 formula to supply china market specifically targeting a2 milk market share

[couta1]

Serious shorting going on with 54% of the total volume shorted yesterday, combine that with the Citi clowns who yesterday recommended A2 as a good growth play then downgraded it today and it's no wonder you get an orchestrated price drop, best to sit tight and ignore or use as a buying opportunity IMO.PS-Baton down the hatches as MA200 is under threat.

[forest]

Serious shorting going on with 54% of the total volume shorted yesterday, combine that with the Citi clowns who yesterday recommended A2 as a good growth play then downgraded it today and it's no wonder you get an orchestrated price drop, best to sit tight and ignore or use as a buying opportunity IMO.PS-Baton down the hatches as MA200 is under threat.

Couta, were do you find the info what % of the volume is shorted of a company?

[couta1]

Couta, were do you find the info what % of the volume is shorted of a company? Shortman.com.au

[forest]

Shortman.com.au

Many thanks.

[see weed]

WANTED TO BUY 2000 a2 @ 10.10 to 10.12 ono to add to the herd bought last Thursday at 10.12:).

[Lego_Man]

No mention of how a geared investment works, cost savings from not renting, growing capital, or a myriad of non financial benefits work in the propery market.

I take it he applies similar lack of logic to his stock investment choices.
A2 has to rise by my interest bill, inflation, loss of potential earnings from other sources, tax, doctor's bills for stress treatment. Before it can be considered a good investment.


All true, but i'm more worried that he just can't calculate a percentage properly. I'm assuming given his job position he's at least living in a 2m valued house. For his rates to be 4% of the value annually, he'd have to be paying 80k per year on rates. Which is complete BS.

My home's CV is a touch over a million, and we pay under 3k per year. For those i know who have houses valued at up to 3-3.5m, they're all still paying less than 10k (not 120k as Lister appears to imply with his 4% figure).

[minimoke]

WANTED TO BUY 2000 a2 @ 10.10 to 10.12 ono to add to the herd bought last Thursday at 10.12:).
Have to do something with my PPH funds so I have an order in at $10.40. See if that gets met today. Also just picked up a few more SML. I'm feeling a bit more milky than your average Milky Bar kid.

Not too worried about the short term _ i'm still looking a year plus out with these ones.
Edit. Well, thats me topped up. ATM accounting for 22% of my portfolio and overall now carrying a 13% gain over 9 months. Looking forward to those future dividends!

[Beagle]

All true, but i'm more worried that he just can't calculate a percentage properly. I'm assuming given his job position he's at least living in a 2m valued house. For his rates to be 4% of the value annually, he'd have to be paying 80k per year on rates. Which is complete BS.

My home's CV is a touch over a million, and we pay under 3k per year. For those i know who have houses valued at up to 3-3.5m, they're all still paying less than 10k (not 120k as Lister appears to imply with his 4% figure).
He's probably got the flu, (like half of the rest of the country) and simply made a mistake. It happens to all of us.

[Sideshow Bob]

No beagle .....he blamed too much booze ..... 6 IPAs at Friday drinks

Now that’s a worry in itself

Drinking IPA or having only 6?

[Sideshow Bob]

See Weed - Have you been employed by Fonterra to promote instore sales of A2 yet? I reckon you go for a percentage of sales..... :p

[Dust]

RBNZ commited to devaluing the kiwi dollar to help exporters and keep the economy afloat. Wonder if any of the analyst has modelled in any currency tailwinds

[winner69]

RBNZ commited to devaluing the kiwi dollar to help exporters and keep the economy afloat. Wonder if any of the analyst has modelled in any currency tailwinds

...or the massive fallout from the disaster he's creating

[bull....]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

[Patient Panda]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

Throughout history people have always been keen for babies. You can’t stop the effects of hormones and human nature.

average joes do not care about short term economic fluctuations unless it affects them in a real way like being made redundant.

[Dust]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

haha which western clickbait article did you read this on

[couta1]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies Now that's taking downramping to a whole new level, all that gloom and doom will be just the ticket for baby making Lol.

[longy]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

Didn't the Govt there loosen up regulation on single child policy? I think you will find people won't have eight but I would imagine most likely be more than one though.

[Beagle]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

What a load of Bull

[silu]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

Actually the opposite usually happens. The better the economy the lower the birthrate. Especially in China were children are still seen as a retirement "tool".

[bull....]

Actually the opposite usually happens. The better the economy the lower the birthrate. Especially in China were children are still seen as a retirement "tool".

why birth rates fell 3.5% last year they rose the 2 years before so i dont think there is any correllation , actually china loosining of mating hasnt increased the number of babies being born overall

[Harley]

a2 now available in Milwaukee.

https://www.wheatbellyblog.com/2018/08/should-you-switch-to-a2-dairy/

[Blue Skies]

china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies

Thought I was reading the lyrics to a Bob Dylan song, 'Working Man's Blues II'

[Beagle]

why birth rates fell 3.5% last year they rose the 2 years before so i dont think there is any correllation , actually china loosining of mating hasnt increased the number of babies being born overall

Have you got some links to back that up or is this just fake news in a desperate attempt to try and encourage the next leg down ?

[bull....]

Have you got some links to back that up or is this just fake news in a desperate attempt to try and encourage the next leg down ?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/08/health/china-one-child-intl/index.html

https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=25

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN

[carrom74]

Wow! Bellamy shares are getting hammered right now(4.2%) down.I hope it is not an industry driven fall.... or can someone please let us know why? and now the difference between A2 and Bal is just about 50C

[minimoke]

Have you got some links to back that up or is this just fake news in a desperate attempt to try and encourage the next leg down ?I thought that information was widely known

The important detail is that China's current rate of birth isn't high enough to sustain its future "people" needs (1.6 children per woman vs a needed 2.1)

China has relaxed its one child policy - next steps will, I reckon, be subsidising / encouraging a higher birth rate.

But its not just a higher birthrate - its a higher rate of healthy children growing into healthy productive adults. And what better than a steady diet of A2 milk!

(Once A2 have locked in China over the next 5 years they can then target africa - the continent with a growing birth rate. Unlike pretty much everywhere else where rates are declining)

[Muppett]

What a load of Bull
Not a lot of bull.
As reported last night extensively on the BBC, China growth definitely slowing, stock market very poorly performing and business confidence down.
Only question is will it impact on A2......
Can the middle/upper class continue to be interested and afford this product?

One thing is for certain, not many NZ stores have A2 in them at present.
NZ market will probably be a loss to the bottom line with costs etc... as not enough volume to make a profit over time.

[Dust]

...and just to add, about 1/5 of Chinese large caps have reported half year results now with 1H growth sitting firmly at 40% yoy, if that's considered a 'collapse' then f* me, rest of the world ex USA must be in the middle of a great depression right now. So not sure where guys like bull/muppet keep getting their notion that "china is slowing" from tbh...

"people getting restless" hmm ok do yourself a favor and catch a flight there take a look, people must be exhausted from shopping at unmanned stores and getting same day delivery via drones, while you're busy writing complaints to Auck metro about their slow services lol


Edit: if your view of the world is through clickbait journalism who has no better content than to regurgitate the same old tariff news (and a slight market correction) then best to learn to ignore the noise

[bull....]

...and just to add, about 1/5 of Chinese large caps have reported half year results now with 1H growth sitting firmly at 40% yoy, if that's considered a 'collapse' then f* me, rest of the world ex USA must be in the middle of a great depression right now. So not sure where guys like bull/muppet keep getting their notion that "china is slowing" from tbh...

"people getting restless" hmm ok do yourself a favor and catch a flight there take a look, people must be exhausted from shopping at unmanned stores and getting same day delivery via drones, while you're busy writing complaints to Auck metro about their slow services lol

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155396/chinas-growth-slows-second-quarter-government-tackles-risk-and

theres other figures as well. need to remember even a small slow down in china is big stuff ..... tarriffs will slow china growth more

[Muppett]

...and just to add, about 1/5 of Chinese large caps have reported half year results now with 1H growth sitting firmly at 40% yoy, if that's considered a 'collapse' then f* me, rest of the world ex USA must be in the middle of a great depression right now. So not sure where guys like bull/muppet keep getting their notion that "china is slowing" from tbh...

"people getting restless" hmm ok do yourself a favor and catch a flight there take a look, people must be exhausted from shopping at unmanned stores and getting same day delivery via drones, while you're busy writing complaints to Auck metro about their slow services lol

I'm only going on what I hear and read. And by hear, I mean on the likes of the BBC. Yeah, I know they get reporters in and are somewhat pessimistic, need to spin a tale and pump out some content, but I'm trying to stick to facts. Otherwise, what else is there to go on?

I hope most of it is wrong.

With all the so called positive news surrounding A2 in the last 3-6 months .....the SP is a tad disappointing.

[bull....]

I'm only going on what I hear and read. And by hear, I mean on the likes of the BBC. Yeah, I know they get reporters in and are somewhat pessimistic, need to spin a tale and pump out some content, but I'm trying to stick to facts. Otherwise, what else is there to go on?

I hope most of it is wrong.

With all the so called positive news surrounding A2 in the last 3-6 months .....the SP is a tad disappointing.

yea same here just sending out the facts , time will tell if todays price is inflated or not , there will be winners and losers im just playing the froth not the long term

[Dust]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155396/chinas-growth-slows-second-quarter-government-tackles-risk-and

theres other figures as well. need to remember even a small slow down in china is big stuff ..... tarriffs will slow china growth more

I stopped reading past the headline, "Economy grew 6.7 per cent in second quarter from a year earlier", basically already contradictory to the clickbait title....name me another country that can match 6.7% gdp growth bull

yes yes seems like the bears have nothing better to say in 2018 than the same old tariff news, a slight market correction in response to a weaker yuan(which is actually done on purpose by PBOC in response to the US tactics)...whoop de doo must be the next GFC already

actual statistics is your friend http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php

[bull....]

guess we will find more clarity end of the mth , next year a2 fortunes will become more apparent

[Muppett]

actual statistics is your friend http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php

Thanks, I like the site, never looked at it before.

Korea only 3% GDP growth, NZ 2.9%............. isn't South Korea meant to be a new opportunity for A2?
Albania was 3.7%........:mellow:

[Beagle]

China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. Until someone posts a link from a credible source I remain of the view that the long run trend is for increased IF consumption.

[Lego_Man]

China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. Until someone posts a link from a credible source I remain of the view that the long run trend is for increased IF consumption.

They're all playing computer games and watching porn. You can't reverse long standing trends overnight.

[minimoke]

China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. .As I'm sure you know, having children is an expensive pastime. Cost of housing in ever increasing congested cities is a problem. Shouldn't be a surprise - birthrates are falling every where except africa)

[Nasi Goreng]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-worrying-decline-in-birth-rate-china-daily-columnist

"China's negative population growth, many demographers believe, will begin around 2025, with the overall population declining from 1.39 billion last year to about 1 billion in 2067 and the ageing population continuing to rise"

I think the focus for A2 should be to grow their market share and hold or grow current margins because lets face it, this is a pretty big market. If China success can translate to rest of Asia, the population size is 4x higher and therefore plenty of growth opportunities.

[tipsy]

China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. Until someone posts a link from a credible source I remain of the view that the long run trend is for increased IF consumption.

That's because it's not declining. 2016 saw the highest number of births since 2000. 18.5 million babies born in Chinese hospitals in 2016, an 11.5% increase on 2015. The birth rate has actually been on the increase since about 2010 and levelled off slightly last year.

[Patient Panda]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-worrying-decline-in-birth-rate-china-daily-columnist

"China's negative population growth, many demographers believe, will begin around 2025, with the overall population declining from 1.39 billion last year to about 1 billion in 2067 and the ageing population continuing to rise"

I think the focus for A2 should be to grow their market share and hold or grow current margins because lets face it, this is a pretty big market. If China success can translate to rest of Asia, the population size is 4x higher and therefore plenty of growth opportunities.




What a quote like this neglects is currently many of Chinas current population can’t afford or justify a relatively expensive branded product like A2 even with a population declining the average incomes are rising significantly over time meaning a much higher proportion can afford or justify A2’s product and therefore their available market within China should actually be growing over time even with a smaller population.

edit; thats assuming the population actually declines which I’m not sure it will

[minimoke]

China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. Until someone posts a link from a credible source I remain of the view that the long run trend is for increased IF consumption.
You are a parent. What do you do? Have a few kids and feed them grungy old Dairy Dale milk. Or have one very special kid and do the very best for it and give it A2?

[minimoke]

That's because it's not declining. 2016 saw the highest number of births since 2000. 18.5 million babies born in Chinese hospitals in 2016, an 11.5% increase on 2015. The birth rate has actually been on the increase since about 2010 and levelled off slightly last year.Total number of births vs births per woman are two different things.

[bull....]

You are a parent. What do you do? Have a few kids and feed them grungy old Dairy Dale milk. Or have one very special kid and do the very best for it and give it A2?

its surprising most people buy this cheaper milk , i tried it on my cereal microwaved the cereal and the milk soured , it did not happen with normal anchor milk. must be something missing in the milk?

[bull....]

That's because it's not declining. 2016 saw the highest number of births since 2000. 18.5 million babies born in Chinese hospitals in 2016, an 11.5% increase on 2015. The birth rate has actually been on the increase since about 2010 and levelled off slightly last year.

nah its declining and even this chinese paper is forecasting decline in future.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-worrying-decline-in-birth-rate-china-daily-columnist

[winner69]

its surprising most people buy this cheaper milk , i tried it on my cereal microwaved the cereal and the milk soured , it did not happen with normal anchor milk. must be something missing in the milk?

Yuk!!!!!!!!!

[tipsy]

As i stated it declined slightly from 2016 to 2017, but 2017 was still the 2nd highest number of births since 2000, remembering that in 2016 there was a massive increase.

[minimoke]

its surprising most people buy this cheaper milk , i tried it on my cereal microwaved the cereal and the milk soured , it did not happen with normal anchor milk. must be something missing in the milk?Perhaps this could read: "its surprising most people buy this normal milk , i tried it on my cereal microwaved the cereal and the milk soured , it did not happen withthe expensive anchor milk. must be something missing in the milk?

[Muppett]

Yuk!!!!!!!!!

Brazil ..... next big op?

[pg0220]

You are a parent. What do you do? Have a few kids and feed them grungy old Dairy Dale milk. Or have one very special kid and do the very best for it and give it A2?

Hey! Isn't that old Dairy Dale milk supposed to be somewhat the same quality as the Pak'n save budget milk? I would be totally fine with that if that's true.

[minimoke]

Hey! Isn't that old Dairy Dale milk supposed to be somewhat the same quality as the Pak'n save budget milk? I would be totally fine with that if that's true.Ssh - come closer and I'l tell you a wee secret.
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Dairy Dale and Anchor is exactly the same milk. The only difference is the packaging. (but some milks have different protein sugars etc - but its the same milk from the same cows)

If you want to get technical just look to see how Fonterra (for example) adds permeate to water down its brands like Calci-Tim and Mega Milk

[pg0220]

If you want to get technical just look to see how Fonterra (for example) adds permeate to water down its brands like Calci-Tim and Mega Milk

By the way, I know this lady working at my client company and she said she used to work at Fonterra and she never drinks any milk other than the normal blue type of milk as she know how the other types are made. Well, totally out of context tho :P

[winner69]

Were those distardly Citi guys buying today?

[percy]

My health is a lot better since I cut down my intake of dairy produce.A little trim milk in my tea and coffee,and very little cheese in my sandwichs at lunch time.I avoid ice cream,yohurt,custard,fancy cheeses,etc.

[pg0220]

My health is a lot better since I cut down my intake of dairy produce.A little trim milk in my tea and coffee,and very little cheese in my sandwichs at lunch time.I avoid ice cream,yohurt,custard,fancy cheeses,etc.
I think dairy products are okay, as long as you stick with something that is processed at its minimum. You dairy products you mentioned in the last sentence contains a lot of fat and sugar, sure of course they are bad for your health. Homemade icecream, greek yoghurt and standard cheese shouldn't be too bad.

[h2so4]

I think dairy products are okay, as long as you stick with something that is processed at its minimum. You dairy products you mentioned in the last sentence contains a lot of fat and sugar, sure of course they are bad for your health. Homemade icecream, greek yoghurt and standard cheese shouldn't be too bad.

Yes I’d go with that but not too much. I do not drink milk myself.

[h2so4]

..A2 is a great product.

Just to keep on topic.

[Muppett]

..A2 is a great product.

Just to keep on topic.

Hope the Auckland University study/report, due out shortly confirms this.

[longy]

Great forum. :)

[h2so4]

Hope the Auckland University study/report, due out shortly confirms this.

Hope is not a strategy. I’m going with my gut on this one.

[winner69]

..A2 is a great product.

Just to keep on topic.

Brash endorses lt .....A2 that is

[Beagle]

$Kiwi falling out of bed is really going to help exporters like ATM. Could we see the Kiwi test 60 cents U.S. over the next year ?

[dobby41]

$Kiwi falling out of bed is really going to help exporters like ATM. Could we see the Kiwi test 60 cents U.S. over the next year ?

General consensus is around 62c

[minimoke]

$Kiwi falling out of bed is really going to help exporters like ATM. Could we see the Kiwi test 60 cents U.S. over the next year ?Excellent news for ATM - provided they don't keep too much product on NZ shelves. Also good news for SML - their south island supermarket supply excepted.

[Muppett]

Is this relevant in anyway?

Fonterra - today

Our forecast performance is not where we expected it would be. While the numbers are not finalised, our margins were
less than we forecasted right across our global Ingredients and Consumer and Foodservice businesses."

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4797696

[Beagle]

General consensus is around 62c

WOW if we head down to there, that'll be a real shot in the arm for exporters and anyone with funds invested overseas.

[dobby41]

WOW if we head down to there, that'll be a real shot in the arm for exporters and anyone with funds invested overseas.

For me my funds invested overseas offsets the increased cost of travel - mostly.

[Nasi Goreng]

WOW if we head down to there, that'll be a real shot in the arm for exporters and anyone with funds invested overseas.

I totally agree. I was looking at the long term chart this morning for NZD/USD and you could easily see it reaching 62c. I think it might go lower than 60c. We forget in October 2000, it was 39c.

For what its worth, on the monthly chart, the 50 month MA is about to cross the 200 month MA. I have no idea what you call that but it looks bearish haha.

[Ggcc]

A positive finish to the week after all the downward pressure.

[winner69]

I totally agree. I was looking at the long term chart this morning for NZD/USD and you could easily see it reaching 62c. I think it might go lower than 60c. We forget in October 2000, it was 39c.

For what its worth, on the monthly chart, the 50 month MA is about to cross the 200 month MA. I have no idea what you call that but it looks bearish haha.

Yep, exciting when it hit That 39 cents

Mind you my first trip to US I got US$1.40 odd for my NZD, that was pretty good

[Patient Panda]

Besides a boost for A2 really not sure why you’re celebrating a low NZ $ so much. Surely you also have interests in companies that are hurt by a low kiwi $ e.g Retailers and surely you buy many many products from abroad. Will likely increase fuel costs which will also affect many more companies.

Certainly a thorn in my side. Will make travelling much more expensive.

[winner69]

Besides a boost for A2 really not sure why you’re celebrating a low NZ $ so much. Surely you also have interests in companies that are hurt by a low kiwi $ e.g Retailers and surely you buy many many products from abroad. Will likely increase fuel costs which will also affect many more companies.

Certainly a thorn in my side. Will make travelling much more expensive.

A low NZD is nothing to be proud off ....Orr is stuffing up things big time.

[Patient Panda]

A low NZD is nothing to be proud off ....Orr is stuffing up things big time.

Not sure if hes still settling in or whats going on.. 2020 is a loong time with such low rates. Leaves very little dry powder in the OCR in case some real stimulas is needed and asset prices could certainly do with some reigning in..

[Ggcc]

Besides a boost for A2 really not sure why you’re celebrating a low NZ $ so much. Surely you also have interests in companies that are hurt by a low kiwi $ e.g Retailers and surely you buy many many products from abroad. Will likely increase fuel costs which will also affect many more companies.

Certainly a thorn in my side. Will make travelling much more expensive.
I don’t want to burst your bubble. Everywhere I have travelled to seems relative or cheaper than New Zealand. We are one of the most expensive countries in the world. It will only get more expensive when we have $20 per hour minimum wage in 2021. Our New Zealand dollar won’t be what we will be thanking for being overly expensive.

[Patient Panda]

I don’t want to burst your bubble. Everywhere I have travelled to seems relative or cheaper than New Zealand. We are one of the most expensive countries in the world. It will only get more expensive when we have $20 per hour minimum wage in 2021. Our New Zealand dollar won’t be what we will be thanking for being overly expensive.

I agree NZ is an expensive place, appreciate your post ggcc but think I didn’t write it well or maybe you misunderstood.

i’m talking about international travel e.g spending a month or two in asia buying THB with NZD as an example.

[Ggcc]

I agree NZ is an expensive place, appreciate your post ggcc but think I didn’t write it well or maybe you misunderstood.

i’m talking about international travel e.g spending a month or two in asia buying THB with NZD as an example.
Ok got you.

[IAK]

Hope is not a strategy. I’m going with my gut on this one.

Classic lol.

[sb9]

Ok, took few years but we finally got there....

Referencing to closing prices of A2M and BAL on ASX. And A2 has overtaken Bellamy’s in price, 9.78 vs 9.70. Go you beaut, may the gap keep widening!!!

[couta1]

Ok, took few years but we finally got there....

Referencing to closing prices of A2M and BAL on ASX. And A2 has overtaken Bellamy’s in price, 9.78 vs 9.70. Go you beaut, may the gap keep widening!!! $23.07-$9.70 over a year is a whole lot of wealth destruction for BAL holders.

[Sideshow Bob]

$23.07-$9.70 over a year is a whole lot of wealth destruction for BAL holders.

According to Google was $8.67 11th August last year (and sub 4 earlier in 2017) so it wasn't a linear decrease.

Could easy say A2 from $14+ to $10.77 is a whole lot of wealth destruction also. But was sub 5 a year ago.

If you bought at the peaks, then yes, but most gave been riding the roller coaster....

[longy]

Question. Is it an bullish sign that A2 bought a chunk of SML before the FY announcement? I am just wondering...

[pg0220]

According to Google was $8.67 11th August last year (and sub 4 earlier in 2017) so it wasn't a linear decrease.

Could easy say A2 from $14+ to $10.77 is a whole lot of wealth destruction also. But was sub 5 a year ago.

If you bought at the peaks, then yes, but most gave been riding the roller coaster....

It looks like to me that the market is adjusting the PE ratio on BAL, ASB tells me that it is still sitting on 73x which is a lot higher than A2M's 51x.

[Beagle]

Question. Is it an bullish sign that A2 bought a chunk of SML before the FY announcement? I am just wondering...

I think so but I could be biased with confirmation bias as I hold both.

[see weed]

See Weed - Have you been employed by Fonterra to promote instore sales of A2 yet? I reckon you go for a percentage of sales..... :p
That would be nice, but no, words already out about a2. My promote days are over. Just sitting back now buying and selling. Did you notice a2m in aussi went up 13c after NZX closed yesterday. ATM NZX seems to follow A2m ASX. Be interesting to see which way it goes on Monday. Annual report due out in couple weeks.

[Valuegrowth]

Still it is trading above $10. It is a very crucial price for the ATM. Trading below that level could lead to trading below $9.

[winner69]

Still it is trading above $10. It is a very crucial price for the ATM. Trading below that level could lead to trading below $9.

As that guy Orr whose stuffing NZ up says ‘the direction of the next move could be up or down’

Whether it’s up or down Mark from Craig’s will be annoyed because you can’t predicrt with great accuracy whether ATM will be a share that goes up ....or down

[minimoke]

As that guy Orr whose stuffing NZ up says ‘the direction of the next move could be up or down’

Whether it’s up or down Mark from Craig’s will be annoyed because you can’t predicrt with great accuracy whether ATM will be a share that goes up ....or down

I can predicrt with great accuracy (100% guaranteed) ATM will be a share that goes up ....or down

[h2so4]

......or maybe both up and down.

[percy]

My get what I get after eating cauliflower;;;; fluctuations.

[whatsup]

Surely with the falling Kiwi the S P with atm should be climbing just as FPH has over the last few months !

[minimoke]

Surely with the falling Kiwi the S P with atm should be climbing just as FPH has over the last few months !Theres no currency gain when selling to the local Pak N Save.

[whatsup]

Theres no currency gain when selling to the local Pak N Save.

But there is in China as ATM has to convert into the international currency of trade , the U S $ when returning funds back to N Z !!

[minimoke]

But there is in China as ATM has to convert into the international currency of trade , the U S $ when returning funds back to N Z !!There is that for sure. But some people are really excited its available locally. Not a lot of money to be made there.

[BlackPeter]

Theres no currency gain when selling to the local Pak N Save.

Actually - there is. Greedy producers tend to increase local sales prices arguing that they could otherwise get more money for their product exporting it. Just wait and watch milk, cheese, butter, veges and fruit go up again. Been there, seen that.

The other benefit of this mechanism is that producers always forget to reduce local prices when the Kiwi dollar goes up again.

[ohpark0119]

ceo should tweet “am considering taking a2m private at $20. Funding secured”.

[nzsharetrade]

ceo should tweet “am considering taking a2m private at $20. Funding secured”.

that was the iron man not iron woman. (no offence just a joke:eek2:)

[longy]

After a good climb... What an anti climax toward the end... :)

[winner69]

After a good climb... What an anti climax toward the end... :)

Driven out of ASX

Contagion seems to be a worry ....maybe worse to come 'AMP Capital's head of investment strategy, Shane Oliver, believes markets will be stressed for a while after the Turkish Lira plunge.'

[see weed]

After a good climb... What an anti climax toward the end... :)
But wait, the last 3 days highs were 10.52, 10.77 and 11.07, and the lows were 10.26, 10.50 and 10.77. It is just practising take off. That is all I am going to say, don't want to put a jinx on it. Ann.reporting is coming out soon, and we all know what the results will be;).

[longy]

But wait, the last 3 days highs were 10.52, 10.77 and 11.07, and the lows were 10.26, 10.50 and 10.77. That is all I am going to say, don't want to put a jinx on it. Ann.reporting is coming out soon, and we all know what the results will be;).

What sort of result are you expecting?

[longy]

What sort of result are you expecting?

Or yeah... sorry did not see the part you did not want to say it... lol

My eyes are blur by the red numbers on me screen today...

[silu]

To those with access to the AFR:
https://www.afr.com/news/a2-extends-china-milk-deal-in-latest-sign-tensions-with-beijing-are-easing-20180812-h13vlv
a2 extends China milk deal in latest sign tensions with Beijing are easing

by Andrew Tillett
The a2 Milk Company will extend its lucrative arrangement with a massive state-owned agricultural company to sell powdered infant formula into China in a deal that shows trade ties have remained strong despite the well-documented diplomatic differences between Canberra and Beijing.

The deal, which is being covered by an extensive Chinese media contingent, coincides with recent signs of a thawing of the diplomatic freeze that Australia has endured.
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[longy]

It is interesting that A2 only has about 5.4 per cent market share of China's premium powder formula segment. China's total infant formula market is worth $US20 billion annually.

[bull....]

just a continuation of a current agreement for another 3 years so nothing new.

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322180

So Goldman Sachs are living up to their recommendation of "buy" and have become a substantial holder now...

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322180

So Goldman Sachs are living up to their recommendation of "buy" and have become a substantial holder now...

it looks like an agreement to lend shares to another party from time to time.... meaning anyone who wants to short it can go see them

[carrom74]

it looks like an agreement to lend shares to another party from time to time.... meaning anyone who wants to short it can go see them

So does that mean they are not buying?

[bull....]

So does that mean they are not buying?

they own 5% thru various vehicles and arrangements overall , these arrangements can be long or short

[couta1]

So does that mean they are not buying? They are straight out market manipulators, any downramping or upramping from them and the likes of Citi are to be trusted as much as a bull in a China shop.

[Dust]

They are straight out market manipulators, any downramping or upramping from them and the likes of Citi are to be trusted as much as a bull in a China shop.

This... *puts tinfoil hat on * Definitely noticed a pattern with GS lately. They've been downright bears on AMD for the past year...until the stock doubled last month. Whoops lets upgrade AMD and downgrade INTC now.

Then comes ALNY, top of their conviction list for the last year, with nearly 90% upside. Mind you this was a name with 90%+ institutional holdings. I'm guessing the rating kept the gate open long enough for their pals to get out before the FDA approved their label narrower than expected, and all of sudden a quater of the upside is shaved off the TP and removed from conviction list.

Would be interesting to run some backtesting on a contrarian strategy against some of these firm's research and see how well it does lol

[nzsharetrade]

has “Goldman Sachs Group" increased holding from the notice? the notice normally says the before and after but it does not say this time?

-------sorry missed the title. they are buying. I thought they are good with shorting

[bull....]

getting our normal pre results run up now .. easy money

[winner69]

getting our normal pre results run up now .. easy money

I reckon 12 bucks very soon ....this baby can move fast

[minimoke]

I reckon 12 bucks very soon ....this baby can move fastup 4% as you wrote!

[bull....]

I reckon 12 bucks very soon ....this baby can move fast

the trading range is still just over 10 to 12

[winner69]

the trading range is still just over 10 to 12

I love trading ranges ...especially so when the price gets to the top of the range


And we might even get a break out

[bull....]

I love trading ranges ...especially so when the price gets to the top of the range


And we might even get a break out

its a hard one alright these ranges esp when they run up into results , depends on your horizon i guess.

poor buggers in dominos a , sold more pizza last yr and the price falls 12%

[Nasi Goreng]

from SMH

The a2 Milk Company will extend its lucrative arrangement (https://www.afr.com/business/retail/fmcg/a2-milk-the-rags-to-riches-tale-20180713-h12myu) with a massive state-owned agricultural company to sell powdered infant formula into China in a deal that shows trade ties have remained strong despite the well-documented diplomatic differences between Canberra and Beijing.
The deal, which is being covered by an extensive Chinese media contingent, coincides with recent signs of a thawing of the diplomatic freeze that Australia has endured.

[silu]

I've been following Jane Hrdlicka's media exposure since she took over as CEO and so far I've been very impressed. She seems to have a clear plan and a deep understanding of what a global brand needs and is able to communicate it effectively. Has anyone here met her in real life yet? I'm a certainty for their next AGM to meet her in person.

[nzsharetrade]

Has anyone heard A2 is going to increase the price of IF in Oct?

[whatsup]

Preso last year on 23/8/17, when is this years ann due ?

[Scooter]

Preso last year on 23/8/17, when is this years ann due ?
22nd August should be the date

[Sideshow Bob]

The Country, interview with Jayne Hrdlicka from earlier in the week:

https://www.radiolive.co.nz/home/on-demand/rural-exchange/2018/08/a2-milk-returning-to-supermarket-shelves.html

[winner69]

Quite a few buys and not that many returns of borrowed stock

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322271/284605.pdf

[Muppett]

22nd August should be the date

Should be......?
Usually companies announce the date.
If they have, I missed it.
But it is usually around the 22-23 August.

[sb9]

Should be......?
Usually companies announce the date.
If they have, I missed it.
But it is usually around the 22-23 August.

https://thea2milkcompany.com/investor-centre/shareholder-information/

Financial Calendar

August 22, 2018
FY18 full year results


February 2019
1H19 interim results

[winner69]

Should be......?
Usually companies announce the date.
If they have, I missed it.
But it is usually around the 22-23 August.

Isn’t it going to be revenues $922m and npat $193m

What’s key is what the future holds ...hope they say

[Sideshow Bob]

Article on the renewal of the agreement with China State Farm;

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2018/08/14/The-a2-Milk-Company-renews-strategic-arrangements-with-China-State-Farm?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=16-Aug-2018&c=vyBYncJCWKVjG2coInUywLlZmS6Dx72K&p2=#

[nzsharetrade]

Goldman increased 1% in one day?

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ("GSGI") on behalf of itself and
its subsidiaries ("Goldman Sachs Group") including its significant
subsidiaries listed in Annexure A.

Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting Products: Ordinary shares
Summary for GSGI on behalf of itself and the Goldman Sachs Group.

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 44,441,465
(b) total in class: 730,039,067
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.0875%

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 37,082,791
(b) total in class: 730,039,067
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.0796%

[777]

getting our normal pre results run up now .. easy money

Well that worked.

[longy]

Has this been posted here... Usual story for A2

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/fonterra-a2-milk-tie-up

[Dust]

Well that worked.

Alot of global funds are rotating out of asia/pacific past couple of days..

[longy]

Alot of global funds are rotating out of asia/pacific past couple of days..

End of the month re balancing???

[777]

End of the month re balancing???

It's only the 15th though.

[couta1]

It's only the 15th though. August 16th is Equity Index derivatives expiration day.

[Dust]

End of the month re balancing???

Nope..general sentiment shift. Started off with the Turkey collapse and Yuan weakness. Exacebated by Tencent's profit drop yesterday. Pretty risk off mood in asia..

[carrom74]

Nope..general sentiment shift. Started off with the Turkey collapse and Yuan weakness. Exacebated by Tencent's profit drop yesterday. Pretty risk off mood in asia..

Something fishy about today's SP... Bellamy is up 7.3% and if external factors are on play here then a 7%+ upswing is not justified.....Big boys algorithms is it?

[couta1]

Something fishy about today's SP... Bellamy is up 7.3% and if external factors are on play here then a 7%+ upswing is not justified.....Big boys algorithms is it? Last ditch tree shake by the big boys before the result.PS-BAL needed a bounce, the SP has been decimated over the last while.

[bull....]

a2 climbing milk sales in aus was due to a boycott on cheap milk , oh no what happens when people go back to buying cheap milk?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12108188

[bull....]

Well that worked.

depends on your horizon

[limmy]

I took the brave step of getting in at $10.72. Hope it's a correct long term decision. :)

[couta1]

I took the brave step of getting in at $10.72. Hope it's a correct long term decision. :) Nice move but brave is those that bought in over $14.

[limmy]

I figured that if GS are buying at today's prices, then it can't be wrong for me to get in. Makes sense ?

[winner69]

I figured that if GS are buying at today's prices, then it can't be wrong for me to get in. Makes sense ?

GS are pretty smart ......what was their target price again?

[limmy]

The disclosures didn't mention the price, I suspect it's around recent prices of 10.60 to 11 +, in numerous trades that they would have made during the time of their acquisitions.

[Dust]

GS are pretty smart ......what was their target price again?

9854

GS's research arent that good tho..IMO

[limmy]

9854

GS's research arent that good tho..IMO
I was alluding to the fact that they were buying about 1% more of ATM recently at today's prices.

[ddrone]

Look at this closing, total manipulation.

[winner69]

The disclosures didn't mention the price, I suspect it's around recent prices of 10.60 to 11 +, in numerous trades that they would have made during the time of their acquisitions.

Every trade / transaction noted on the SSH if you want to add them all up to see what they buying / selling for

Pages 10 to 11 of 131

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322271/284605.pdf

[winner69]

Look at this closing, total manipulation.

What makes you think that?

[silu]

What makes you think that?

The majority of trades today on the ASX were after closing. But I think this is always just house cleaning right?
4:10:13 pm $9,86 418,456 $4,125,976 92trades

[Southern_Belle]

Report out on Wednesday. A2 ...... cream of the crop.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12108229

[winner69]

The world a happy place overnight

Will be a boomer end of the week for A2 shareholders

Heading to 12 bucks before the good news about next year they’ll tell us about next week

And then, heck it’ll be off to new highs

[minimoke]

The world a happy place overnight

Will be a boomer end of the week for A2 shareholders

Heading to 12 bucks before the good news about next year they’ll tell us about next week

And then, heck it’ll be off to new highsBeagle and I know what we have sitting in our fridges. Just waiting for the excuse!

[whatsup]

Every trade / transaction noted on the SSH if you want to add them all up to see what they buying / selling for

Pages 10 to 11 of 131

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322271/284605.pdf

G S building a very interesting long situation, obviously they think that the up coming financials will be positive, pity that ATM couldnt hold yesterdays high and as usual the D Ters sold off after lunch in Aust forcing out price down in N Z.

[Beagle]

Report out on Wednesday. A2 ...... cream of the crop.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12108229


Nice article, three of my well performing companies mentioned in one article, who can complain about that !


Beagle and I know what we have sitting in our fridges. Just waiting for the excuse!

Full bottle on standby for next week !! What is better is I can now easily get A2 milk to mix it with in a 50 / 50 sweet tasting drink.
Topped up with more Sunlait at $10.30 and more ATM at $10.70 this week.

[Muppett]

The world a happy place overnight

Will be a boomer end of the week for A2 shareholders

Heading to 12 bucks before the good news about next year they’ll tell us about next week

And then, heck it’ll be off to new highs

Maybe $12 on Monday.

What more good news could there possibly be?
We have had loads in the last 6 months, all priced in.
$10.85 at today's close to $14.65 YTD high is a 35% increase needed.
It needs another whopper of an announcement.

If you were a new CEO doing your first results announcement, what approach would you take?

[couta1]

Look at this closing, total manipulation. Today's trading pattern looked very much like price suppression to me, let's see what happens on Monday.

[etrader]

Has anyone looked to compliment their A2 with some Keytone shares on Asx ?i grabbed a few on listing day and although totally different to A2 levels looks to have some interesting product pipeline ahead

[King1212]

Has anyone looked to compliment their A2 with some Keytone shares on Asx ?i grabbed a few on listing day and although totally different to A2 levels looks to have some interesting product pipeline ahead

I did...got in about 32c..should waited a day and would got it around 28c but u can not win all the time. Yes, a lot of growth on KTD

[44wishlists]

Does anyone know will ATM offer an online streaming of the presentation please?

[winner69]

Dawning if a big week for A2 shareholders

I think we will be happy as by the end of the week ..I feel it in my bones

Can’t be any other way can it?

[winner69]

Maybe $12 on Monday.

What more good news could there possibly be?
We have had loads in the last 6 months, all priced in.
$10.85 at today's close to $14.65 YTD high is a 35% increase needed.
It needs another whopper of an announcement.

If you were a new CEO doing your first results announcement, what approach would you take?

The market hopefully will be entranced by Ms Hrdlicka as she paints a picture of further exciting and prosperous times ahead

She’ll sound pretty convincing I reckon

Need to top up pre announcement I reckon

[winner69]

Maybe $12 on Monday.

What more good news could there possibly be?
We have had loads in the last 6 months, all priced in.
$10.85 at today's close to $14.65 YTD high is a 35% increase needed.
It needs another whopper of an announcement.

If you were a new CEO doing your first results announcement, what approach would you take?

The market hopefully will be entranced by our Jayne as she paints a picture of further exciting and prosperous times ahead

Jayne will sound pretty convincing I reckon

Need to top up pre announcement I reckon

[Beagle]

Saying it twice doesn't make it twice as true :p...but I agree 200% and topped up at $10.70 last week :D

[Sideshow Bob]

I did notice we are on page 666 of discussions...….the devils number...…

Could be an omen!! ;)

[bull....]

first nz capital downgraded a2 last week think i read on sharechat news last week

[couta1]

I did notice we are on page 666 of discussions...….the devils number...…

Could be an omen!! ;) Yep, too hard to guess which way the price is going to go on announcement day, toss a coin three times to get the correct answer.

[see weed]

Saying it twice doesn't make it twice as true :p...but I agree 200% and topped up at $10.70 last week :D
Been topping up for last 6 months. 20/2/18 was the best top up made in last year buying 21,000 @ 9.32 and selling them the next day at great profit.;) Don't worry about 666, it's all in the mind, and be in the past next page.

[bull....]

devil of a start to the day

[t.rexjr]

devil of a start to the day
Time to turn a new leaf me thinks

[minimoke]

Looks like this is one of the longest periods SP has gone nowhere since mid 2016. Time for something to ignite the rocket boosters again.

[couta1]

Kiwi holders very bearish this morning, never mind they will probably be the exact opposite on Wed morning before the Aussie open.

[Muppett]

Tomorrow SP not looking good.
It usually is in decline the day before an announcement.

[Beagle]

The market hopefully will be entranced by Ms Hrdlicka as she paints a picture of further exciting and prosperous times ahead

She’ll sound pretty convincing I reckon

Need to top up pre announcement I reckon

Goit to get it off this page.

[Beagle]

The market hopefully will be entranced by our Jayne as she paints a picture of further exciting and prosperous times ahead

Jayne will sound pretty convincing I reckon

Need to top up pre announcement I reckon

Terrible number 666.






Some reckon its the devil's number





Probably bad luck for shareholders until we turn the page





or is it just superstitious rubbish




Who knows




Wonder if Ms Herdlicker is a patch on Geoff Babbage ?




Even the Sp is $10.66...can't be a good thing.

[winner69]

My shretrader says it’s only Page 500

[couta1]

Terrible number 666.






Some reckon its the devil's number





Probably bad luck for shareholders until we turn the page





or is it just superstitious rubbish




Who knows




Wonder if Ms Herdlicker is a patch on Geoff Babbage ?




Even the Sp is $10.66...can't be a good thing. The broken down meaning of 666 in plain English is as follows. 1.Re-evaluate the situation. 2.Question your assumptions. 3.Challenge your beliefs. Yikes, I'm not sure how much of that is good in regards to this stock.

[Sideshow Bob]

My shretrader says it’s only Page 500

Probably doesn't have your 166 pages of posts??

[winner69]

Probably doesn't have your 166 pages of posts??

Cheeky sod

Got it up to 1,000 pages now

Changed number of posts per page ...that’ll get rid of the 666 problem

[Sideshow Bob]

Cheeky sod

Got it up to 1,000 pages now

Changed number of posts per page ...that’ll get rid of the 666 problem

Sorry W69 - went for the easy one.

[see weed]

Cheeky sod

Got it up to 1,000 pages now

Changed number of posts per page ...that’ll get rid of the 666 problem

Bye bye 666 and welcome 11.66:).

[silu]

Went to Countdown in Mt Wellington last night which might be the roughest Countdown in all of Auckland but they all sold out of A2 Milk. Asked the manager if they forgot to restock and he said - No it all sold out quickly. The story means nothing except a little feel good inside me. fwiw they sell the Fresha Valley Brand of A2 Milk.

[minimoke]

I'm still happy with my $3 for 2L Dairy Dale

"Budget milk is made from reconstituted milk powder is one incorrect claim.Another is that budget branded milk is older milk.
The conspiracies get a sharp dismissal from supermarkets."

Just so we know: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/106399314/milking-it-the-budget-vs-branded-milk-battle

[hogie]

I'm still happy with my $3 for 2L Dairy Dale

"Budget milk is made from reconstituted milk powder is one incorrect claim.Another is that budget branded milk is older milk.
The conspiracies get a sharp dismissal from supermarkets."

Just so we know: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/106399314/milking-it-the-budget-vs-branded-milk-battle



I go to my local indian dairy for $2.70 2L Blue Top milk ... nothing wrong with it :) I guess I'm not upper-class enough to buy A2 or the fancy Anchor milk made from those "special cows" ...

[Southern_Belle]

The market hopefully will be entranced by our Jayne as she paints a picture of further exciting and prosperous times ahead

Jayne will sound pretty convincing I reckon

Need to top up pre announcement I reckonOff like a robbers dog this morning, looking forward to Aussie opening

[tipsy]

Went to Countdown in Mt Wellington last night which might be the roughest Countdown in all of Auckland but they all sold out of A2 Milk. Asked the manager if they forgot to restock and he said - No it all sold out quickly. The story means nothing except a little feel good inside me. fwiw they sell the Fresha Valley Brand of A2 Milk.

I did a little side-by-side taste test between the Fresha Valley A2 and Anchor A2 over the weekend. The Fresha Valley was the better of the two imo, more creamier in taste/mouth feel, which gave it just that little extra sweetness. Great in coffee.

[silu]

I did a little side-by-side taste test between the Fresha Valley A2 and Anchor A2 over the weekend. The Fresha Valley was the better of the two imo, more creamier in taste/mouth feel, which gave it just that little extra sweetness. Great in coffee.

Yes I thought the same. I only drink milk for my morning smoothie. I was OK with water until now but I actually really love the taste of milk again. Also the Fresha Valley is at least $1.50 cheaper for 2l.

[minimoke]

I generally only drink milk well diluted with hot water flavoured with coffee.